Keywords: Catastrophic landslide triggered debris flow; Dynamic process; Main controlling factors; Tendency analysis; Yigong. Palabras clave: deslizamienos de tierra ocasionados por flujos de detritos; procesos dinámicos; factores principales de control; análisis de tendencias; Yigong. How to cite item Li, J., Chen, N., Zhao, Y., Liu, M., & Wang, W. (2020). A catastrophic landslide triggered debris flow in China’s Yigong: factors, dynamic processes, and tendency. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 24(1), 71-82. DOI: https:// doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v24n1.78094 A disaster of a catastrophic landslide triggered a debris flow with a scale of 0.3 billion m3 that occurred in the Zhamunong gully of Yigong on April 9th, 2000. It is of great scientific and engineering significance to study the main controlling factors and dynamic processes of this disaster, and the future development trend of similar hazards. Firstly, the precipitation, earthquake and temperature data before the event and seismic wave data after the event were collect. Secondly, a multi-dimensional approach on the data for finding the factors, dynamic processes and tendency of a catastrophic landslide triggered a debris flow in Zhamunong gully was applied, including the standard precipitation index and effective peak acceleration calculation methods, fast Fourier transform, landslide stability, MacCormack- TVD finite difference method and FLAC numerical simulation method. The results are shown as follows. (1) The main controlling factors of this disaster were the long-term freeze-thaw cycle, dry-wet cycle, and a middle magnitude earthquake. (2) Based on the ground vibration spectrum of 2000 disaster recorded by the Linzhi seismic station, the dynamic processes are the joint and crack development process, the crack fracture and sliding process, the landslide translating into the debris flow, the movement and deposition of the debris flow. (3) The density and the average velocity are 2.0 t·m-3 and 30.12 m·s-1, respectively, and the discharge is shown with the process of first increases and then decreases. (4) Similar catastrophic landslide triggered debris flow would happen in Zhamunong gully in the future. The research results are useful in establishing a foundation for further study on the dynamic mechanism and reduction countermeasures of a catastrophic landslide triggered by debris flow. ABSTRACT A catastrophic landslide triggered debris flow in China’s Yigong: factors, dynamic processes, and tendency Deslizamiento de tierra ocasionado por el flujo de detritos en el río Yigong (China): factores, procesos dinámicos y tendencia ISSN 1794-6190 e-ISSN 2339-3459 https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v24n1.78094 Un deslizamiento de tierra ocasionó un flujo de detritos a una escala de 0.3 miles de millones de metros cúbicos en la hondonada de Zhamunong en el río Yigong, el 9 de abril de 2000. El estudio de los factores deteterminantes y las dinámicas del proceso de este desastre, al igual que el estudio de la tendencia a futuro de eventos similares, ha sido de gran importancia científica e ingenieril. Inicialmente, se recolectó la información relacionada con la precipitación, terremotos y temperatura antes del deslizamiento y la información de onda sísmica después del evento. Luego se realizó un acercamiento multidimensional a la información para encontrar los factores, los procesos dinámicos y la tendencia del deslizamiento de tierra que desencadenó un flujo de detritos en Zhamunong, y que incluyó el índice de precipitación regular y los métodos de cálculo de aceleración sísmica, transformada rápida de Fourier, estabilidad de un deslizamiento, el método de las diferencias finitas MacCormack-TVD y el método de simulación numérica FLAC. Los resultados muestran lo siguiente: (1) Los factores de control principal del deslizamiento fueron el ciclo a largo plazo de congelación y descongelación, el ciclo de humedad y sequía, y un terremoto de magnitud media. (2) Con base en el espectro de vibración del terreno registrado durante este evento por la estación sísmica de Linzhi, las dinámicas pasan por el desarrollo del proceso de agrietamiento y articulación, el proceso de agrietamiento de las fracturas y deslizamiento, la traslación del deslizamiento de tierra en flujo de detritos, el movimiento y la deposición de estos detritos. (3) La densidad y el promedio de velocidad son de 2.0 t·m-3 y 30.12 m·s-1, y la descarga se muestra con el proceso de primero incremento y luego disminución. (4) Eventos similares pueden ocurrir en la hondonada de Zhamunong a futuro. Los resultados de la investigación son útiles para establecer los cimientos de estudios posteriores en los mecanismos de dinámicas y en la reducción de contramedidas de deslizamienos de tierra ocasionados por flujos de detritos. RESUMEN Record Manuscript received: 26/02/2019 Accepted for publication: 18/10/2019 EARTH SCIENCES RESEARCH JOURNAL Earth Sci. Res. J. Vol. 24, No. 1 (March, 2020): 71-82 Jun Lia, Ningsheng Chenb*, Yuandi Zhaoa, Mei Liub, Weiyu Wanga 1School of Civil Engineering, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong, 643000, China 2Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China * Corresponding author: chennsh@imde.ac.cn G EO TE CH NI CA L EN G IN EE RI NG 72 Jun Li, Ningsheng Chen, Yuandi Zhao, Mei Liu, Weiyu Wang Introduction A Catastrophic Landslide Triggered Debris Flow (CLDF) refers to a chain of landslides with a volume of more than 1×107 m3 transforming to a high-speed and long distant debris flow after detaching from the parent rock due to the landslide’s enormous potential energy (Huang and Fan, 2013, Chen et al., 2018, Samodra et al., 2018). At 20:00:11.95 on April 9th, 2000 (Local time), a catastrophic landslide triggered debris flow that occurred in the Zhamunong gully in Yigong (Wang and Lu, 2002, Shang et al., 2003, Evans and Delaney, 2011). The landslide struck the ground, leading to loosening bed depositions mixed in the landslide in the headstream of the gully, then the landslide transformed into a debris flow by the soil liquefaction. The deposits carried by the debris flow blocked the Yigong Zangbo river. The subsequent barrier dam outbreak on June 10th then fast formed a flash flood, which resulted in heavy casualties and economic losses (Kang et al., 2017, Wang and Li, 2017, Liu and He, 2018). In China, the flash flood damaged 318 National Road, Tongmai Bridge, the Motuo Jiefang Bridge, highways, among others. The G318 national highway was broken off for 76 days, which resulted in two people causalities and a loss of 280 million Yuan (Liu, 2000, Lu, 2002, XuQiang et al., 2012, Schmidt et al., 2015). Besides, the flash flood killed 94 people, 2.5 million people were homeless in Ramaphotra, northern India, and traffic broke off in 7 central Indian states (Tewari, 2004, Wang et al., 2016). Many local and international scholars have studied this catastrophic disaster. Scholars have already studied the scale characteristics of the 2000 CLDF in the Zhamunong Gully and the macroscopic processes that occur when a landslide transfers into a debris flow; results show that this CLDF is triggered by rainfall and that the deposit volumes range from 1.2 to 3.0×108 m3 (Shang et al., 2003, Xu et al., 2012, Evans and Delaney, 2011, Delaney and Evans, 2015). Meanwhile, a more large-scale debris flow occurred in the same place in 1902 (Shang et al., 2003). However, the following issues in the above studies need to be researched: (a) CLDFs led by rainfall are generally small- scale (Wang and Sassa, 2003, Guzzetti et al., 2009, Chen et al., 2010). Previous studies show that freeze-thaw cycles, dry-wet cycles, and seismic linkages are extremely conducive to the development of CLDFs (Chen et al., 2014, Zhou et al., 2016, Huang et al., 2016) and that rainfall is a decisive factor for the occurrence of a CLDF (Chen et al., 2016, Deng et al., 2017). Additionally, a Ms 4.3 earthquake might influence the occurrence of a landslide (Delgado et al., 2011). Is the occurrence of the 2000 CLDF related to the middle and small earthquakes, the freeze-thaw cycles and the dry-wet cycles in the region? (b) Studies on the dynamic process of landslides transforming into debris flows are not well understood, so it is necessary to perform a quantitative study on these dynamic processes. (c) The process of volume changes of CLDFs over long timescales are the basis for analyzing the development tendency of the CLDF in the Zhamunong Gully, but this research has yet to be published. Due to the construction demand for major projects, such as town, roads, and hydropower, the practical demands of disaster prevention and reduction (Wang et al., 2018a, 2018b), and the scientific problem of surface denudation processes at the edge of the Tibetan Plateau, the main purpose of this paper is to study the main controlling factors on and dynamic processes and tendency of the CLDF in the Zhamunong Gully. To tackle the aforementioned issues, a case study is performed based on the 2000 CLDF in the Zhamunong Gully. Section 2 describes the study area and methodology. Section 3 and section 4 address the main controlling factors and the dynamic processes of the CLDF, respectively. Section 5 analyzes the development tendency of CLDF, and Section 6 presents the conclusions. The technical flowchart is shown in Figure 1. Study area and methodology Study area The Zhamunong Gully is located in the northwest region of the Namcha Barwa Peak and is on the left bank of the Yigong Zangbo River (Fig. 2a). Topographic variations are acute along the western and eastern margin, forming an alpine landform. The basin area is 29.4 km2. The highest and lowest altitudes are 5616.00 m and 2185.72 m, respectively. The relative relief is 3430.28 m. The average gradient is 233 ‰, and the largest gradient is 646 ‰. The regional climate is relatively warm with an average temperature of 6°C~17°C and a mean disproportionate annual precipitation of 1225.8 mm. The precipitation curve is shaped like a double peak (referring to the months of May-June and August- September). The lithology from north to south are Himalayan granite (outcrop altitude elevation between 4100 m-5616 m), limestone, slate and marble of the Carboniferous system (outcrop altitude elevation between 2800 m-4100 m), and gneiss and schist of the Gangdese group from the pre-Sinian system (outcrop altitude elevation between 2198 m-2800 m). The Zhamunong Gully is crossed by three fault zones (Fig. 2b), which are the Jiali Deep Fault Zone (F1), the Dade-Anizha Fault (F22), and the Danen-Zepu Fault (F3), where the seismic activity of the Jiali Fault is comparatively frequent with the occasional occurrence greater than Ms 6 earthquakes (Lee et al., 2003; Song et al., 2013) Methodology Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Peak Acceleration (EPA) calculation methods We estimate the influence of earthquakes by using EPA method in Table 1. The Yigong landslide is within Western China, therefore, the model for computing the EPA is based on the empirical model between earthquakes and seismic acceleration in Western China (Wang and Shi, 1993, Yu and Gao, 2001). The drought grade shown in Table 2 is based on the SPI (Chen et al., 2014). Compilation of basic Dynamic processes of the 2000 Tendency of Mechanical test data for granite Particle size 2000 CLDF Precipitation, temperature, earthquake data Landslide stability analysis Characteristic parameters of dynamic processes Dynamic processes Main controlling factors Figure 1. Technical flowchart. 73A catastrophic landslide triggered debris flow in China’s Yigong: factors, dynamic processes, and tendency (Mccubbine et al., 2017). FFT analysis converts a signal from its original domain to a representation in the frequency domain. The parameters of frequency, amplitude, and peak ground parameters (such as acceleration and displacement) are transformed from the seismic wave based on the Seismosignal software from the website of https://www.seismosoft.com/seismosignal-prod. Landslide stability The calculation equation for the locking section length of a landslide is shown in Equation 1. Equations 2-6 are the detailed calculation equations of every force in Equation 1. In Equations 1-6, F is the stability coefficient of the landslide; F=1 is a critical stable state of landslide (that is, the landslide is near sliding when F=1); FK is the anti-sliding force, in KN/m; FS is the sliding force, in KN·m-1; c is the cohesion force of the rock mass in the sliding surface of the landslide, in Kpa; φ is the internal friction angle of the rock mass in the sliding surface of the avalanche mass, in º; L is the length of the locking section (the non-perforated length of the landslide’s fissure surface), in m; V is the fissure water pressure, in KN·m-1; U is the uplift pressure along the Table 2. Dry grade based on the SPI Dry grade Type SPI Occurrence frequency 1 No drought -0.5363 m, the landslide will slide. Crack fracture and sliding process The frontal mound deposits were moved from the top of the basin source because only the top of the basin source had the granite rock masses. Those mound deposits had many ice-containing muds (Fig. 9a), suggesting that the granite rock masses were strongly influenced by the long-term freeze-thaw and dry-wet cycles. There are many cracks in the granite rock masses at the top of the basin. According to a rock mechanics test and the landslide stability calculation results, under the combined effect of many conditions, such as a quick cutting of the valley in the Yigong region, earthquakes, temperature changes, and continuous rainfall, a high-angle fissure in the trailing edge of landslide develops quickly and continuous creeping deformation occurs in the landslide along the weak structural plane or fracture surface, forming a mid ‘locking section’. The locking section is a geological structure that has a high bearing capacity and stress concentration in the potential sliding surface of the slope. The natural locking segment usually has large-scale and flat geometry and bears extremely slow shear loading or stress corrosion. The continuous creeping deformation of the avalanche mass leads the rock mass to further decline in strength, including the high-angle fissure in Table 6, the trailing edge and the front slow-inclined fracture surface. The landslide is driven by a force toward the slope under the action of high pore-water pressure before the landslide is generated, which can be indicated by a strong rainfall process from April 1 to April 9 and the color of the water turned black and the water quantity decreased significantly on April 8. The residual locking section on the structure surface of the BH01 landslide was close to being sheared off by a huge thrust force and an uplift force, and the softening of water causes the main sliding surface. The final locking section of 455 m was eventually ruptured by the Ms 4.8 earthquake, and then the landslide occurred (Fig. 9b). Landslide translation into a debris flow, and the movement and deposition of the debris flow Before sliding, the debris deposits were gradually saturated under the infiltration of snowmelt water and precipitation. The tremendous impact force from the landside impact on the gully wall occurred instantly. The bottom Table 6. Calculation of landslide stability Stable state Seismic force /KN·m-1 Gravity /KN·m-1 Fracture water pressure /KN·m-1 Sliding surface water pressure /KN·m-1 Sliding resistance force FK /KN·m-1 Slippage FS / KN·m-1 L/m Critical stability 4077881 15991690 164711 412755 12922659 12922659 455 Figure 9. (a) Mound deposit of the 2000 CLDF, (b) Model of sliding-tension-shearing failure. Mound 80 Jun Li, Ningsheng Chen, Yuandi Zhao, Mei Liu, Weiyu Wang of the loose deposit liquefied, the shear strength of the landslide decreased, and the resistance of the landslide decreased due to liquefaction from the high-speed ring shear tests (Hu et al., 2015). Therefore, the landslide moved at a higher average speed of 120.98 m/s. The landslide material was mainly gravel and rock debris. When these high-density materials rushed out of the narrow gully into a wider gully, the landslide materials mixing with air were transformed into a debris flow, which moved at a high speed. The high-speed debris flow gradually silts away in the wide gully after it has rushed out of the mountain mouth. Characteristic parameters of the dynamic processes Density We collected 4 particle samples of the 2000 CLDF in 2004, which were not influenced by precipitation. The distribution curve of the particle size of the 4 samples was obtained by a sieving test. The densities of the 4 deposits are calculated using the equation given by (Li and Chen, 2018). An average density of 1.97 t·m-3 for the 2000 CLDF is calculated by averaging the densities of the different locations in Table 7. Table 7. The density of the 2000 CLDF No. Locations Clay particle content P0.005 Density γc/t·m -3 1 Impact point C 0.05 2.01 2 Impact point D 0.05 1.98 3 Impact point E 0.06 2.04 4 Impact point F 0.03 1.88 Velocity The average velocity of the 2000 CLDF is estimated based on the time interval of the seismic waves and the distance between each impact point (Table 8). The average velocity of the 2000 CLDF is 30.12 m·s-1, the starting speed of the landslide in the O-A section is 89.89 m·s-1, and the average velocities of stages A-B, B-C, C-D, D-E, and E-F are 120.98, 108.57, 71.38, 53.14 and 15.25 m·s-1, respectively. The average velocity calculated by the seismic wave is similar to the velocity process computed by the Massflow software (Fig. 10), indicating the seismic wave can be used to predict the dynamic parameters of similar CLDF. Discharge A two-dimensional mountainous mass flow dynamic procedure solver (Massflow-2D) is based on the theory of continuum mechanics of depth integration using the improved MacCormack TVD finite difference method. The Massflow software has a high-efficiency calculation, and it can simulate mountain disaster dynamics, it considers the complex topography with the characteristics of second-order accuracy and adaptive solution domain. Therefore, the flow process of the 2000 CLDF was simulated by the Massflow software (Ouyang et al., 2013, Ouyang et al., 2015). The discharge of the debris flow is 504×104 m3·s-1. The discharges at impact points E and F are 85.9×104 m3·s-1 and 7.8×104 m3·s-1, respectively. The discharge processes of the 2000 CLDF first increased and then decreased, and the maximum discharge of the 2000 CLDF was 504×104 m3·s-1, which occurred at the second impact point B. The different discharge locations of the 2000 CLDF are shown in Table 9. Table 9. Discharges of the 2000 CLDF Locations A B E F Discharges/×104 m3·s-1 325.5 504 85.9 6.2 The tendency for CLDFs in the Zhamunong Gully Based on the detailed internal and external landslide investigation presented in the current study, a CLDF can be predicted in the Zhamunong Gully. The smaller debris flows occurring after the CLDF disaster will decrease year by year. (1) An analysis of historical disasters shows that there is a possibility of CLDF disasters recurring. As shown in Fig. 11a, the scale of the debris flow fluctuates in the Zhamunong Gully. The scale of debris flows from 1902 and 2000 are 6.04×108 m3 and 3×108 m3, respectively. After two peaks, the scale of the disasters decreased year by year. The scale of debris-flow processes shows that a CLDF may occur in the future in the Zhamunong Gully. (2) The FLAC numerical simulation shows that plastic rock masses exist in the top of the basin; these are the material basis for the occurrence of CLDFs. Under a middle magnitude earthquake and extreme precipitation, the source rock masses undergo plastic deformation in the Zhamunong Gully, and the potential sliding surfaces of BH01 and BH02 are shown in Fig. 11b. The plastic rock masses show that the CDLF may happen again in the future. Therefore, we estimate Fig. 10. The simulated velocity of 2000 CLDF by the Massflow software Table 8. The velocity of the 2000 CLDF Stage O-A A-B B-C C-D D-E E-F O-F Distance/m 809 1240 950 1035 2139 3770 9939 Time/s 9 10.25 8.75 14.5 40.25 247.25 330 Average velocity/m·s-1 89.89 120.98 108.57 71.38 53.14 15.25 30.12 81A catastrophic landslide triggered debris flow in China’s Yigong: factors, dynamic processes, and tendency the average area of BH01 to be 111879.5 m2, and its width and volume are 822.07 m and 0.92×108 m3, respectively. Similarly, the average area of BH02 is 100314 m2, while the width of BH02 is 935.30 m and the volume of BH02 is 0.94×108 m3. (3) Regional tectonics, earthquakes, and an extreme climate can activate CLDF disasters in the Zhamunong Gully. GPS measurements show that India and Southern Tibet converge at a rate of 20.3 mm/a, and approximately 80% of the convergence is absorbed by a 50 km-wide deformation zone centered on the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau (Larson et al., 1999). Under the intense compression of the Himalayan tectonic movement, large landslides have formed in the Yigong region. The Yigong region has a large number of faults. Frequent seismicity occurs in this region with a high seismic intensity. The rock masses continue to accumulate energy generated by earthquakes. Extreme climatic events occur frequently, and precipitation is abundant in the Yigong region. The maximum rainfall in one hour in the past four years is 92.5 mm. In the past 60 years, the annual mean temperature has been increasing year by year, and the glacier in the source basin is gradually shrinking. In conclusion, the source of the rock masses can release significant elastic energy under earthquake and extreme climate conditions, and a large number of fragmented loose material sources slide along the steep terrain, thus forming a CLDF. Conclusions The conclusions contain three parts, which are stated as follows: (1) The main controlling factors of the 2000 CLDF were the long-term freeze-thaw and dry-wet cycles and a middle magnitude earthquake. The impact of Ms 4.8 earthquake cannot be neglected for the occurrence of 2000 CLDF. There is a coupled relationship between the occurrence of the 2000 CLDF, the earthquake, the freeze-thaw cycle, and the dry-wet cycle. From March to April 9th, 2000, a small-scale dry-wet cycle occurred in the Zhamunong Gully. The rock masses of BH01 landslide was saturated under the long-term freeze- thaw and dry-wet cycle conditions. Therefore, the BH01 landslide occurred at 8 pm and 11.95 seconds on 9th April 2000. A middle magnitude earthquake of Ms 4.8 occurred approximately 13 km away from the Zhamunong Gully at 8 pm and 9.2 seconds on 9th April 2000. The top rock masses obtained 43.3 gals of seismic acceleration. Under the influence of the Ms 4.8 earthquake, the BH01 landslide occurred. (2) Based on the ground vibration spectrum recorded by the Linzhi seismic station, there were four dynamic processes of the 2000 CLDF, including the process of joint and crack development in the landslide, the crack fracture and sliding process, the process of landslide translation into a debris flow, the movement and deposition of the debris flow. The boundary and magnitude of the BH01 landslide were controlled by the joints in the granite rock masses. The landslide was saturated under the long-term freeze-thaw and dry-wet cycles before the disaster. The crack fracture and slide process of the 2000 CLDF was revealed by a ‘creep-tensile-shear’ failure model. The attenuation of seismic activity and the strength of the granite rock mass led to the landslide occurring along cracks. The Ms 4.8 earthquake may have ruptured the final 455 m locking sections, and then the landslide occurred. The density of the 2000 CLDF was 2.0 t·m-3, the starting velocity was 89.89 m·s-1, the average velocity was 30.12 m·s-1, and the discharge shape of the 2000 CLDF first increased and then decreased. The maximum discharge of the 2000 CLDF was 504×104 m3·s-1, which occurred in the second impact section. (3) A CLDF may occur in the Zhamunong Gully in the future. The smaller debris flows occurring after the CLDF will decrease year by year. Acknowledgment The study was supported by the programs of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41807075, 41671112 and 41861134008), and the talent introduction project of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering (Grant Nos. 2018RCL09), and the student’s innovation and entrepreneurship training program of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering (B50104124), and the opening project of Sichuan Province University Key Laboratory of Bridge Non-destruction Detecting and Engineering Computing (Grant Nos. 2019QZJ01), and the projects of Zigong Bureau of Science and Technology (Grant Nos. 2019CXMZ08 and 2019YYJC30). References Chen, N. S., Li, J., Liu, L. H., Yang, C. L. & Liu, M. (2018). Post-earthquake denudation and its impacts on ancient civilizations in the Chengdu Longmenshan region, China. Geomorphology, 309, 51-59. Chen, N. S., Tanoli, J. I., Hu, G. S., Wang, F. N., Yang, C. L., Ding, H. T., He, N. & Wang, T. (2016). 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