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Economics, Law and Policy 
ISSN 2576-2060 (Print) ISSN 2576-2052 (Online) 

Vol. 1, No. 1, 2018 
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1 
 

Original Paper 

Global Energy and CO2s: Defection Risk 

Jan-Erik Lane1* 
1 Fellow with Public Policy Institute, Belgrade, Serbia 
* Jan-Erik Lane, 10 Charles Humbert, 1205 Geneva; 559 A, 3rd Floor, Thuya Street, 9th Quarter, 

Yangon, Myanmar 

 

Received: December 11, 2017  Accepted: December 13, 2017  Online Published: December 22, 2017 

doi:10.22158/elp.v1n1p1          URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/elp.v1n1p1 

 

Abstract 

It is fair to judge that the UNFCCC’s COP23 in Bonn this fall ended in nothing. Thus far, there is no 

implementation plan or set of management strategies for the COP21 TREATY in Paris 2015. Instead, a 

new reunion has been called for 2018 in Polish Katowice, with its huge coal mines-Poland relies 

almost to 70 % on coal. At the same time, Germany acknowledges that it cannot cut back coal as 

promised, but I will close atomic power stations down! Here, we examine the defection option against 

the COP21 Treaty. Other nations may be tempted by reneging. 

Keywords 

global decarbonisation, COP21 Treaty, COP23, compliance against defection, common pool regime, 

reneging 

 

1. Introduction 

The states of the world have been committed by their governments at the Paris COP21 meeting to 

decarbonize their economies according to a strict schedule for the 21st century. This implies giving up 

fossil fuels as the chief energy source for the economy in a broad sense. At the same time, nations 

around the world are eager to continue socio-economic development, emerging economies striving to 

“catch-up”; having recently “taken-off”, while rich countries underline the necessity of economic 

growth. Thus, they plan for more demand for energy. Is there a policy contradiction here? 

Just before the start of the UN global environment reunion COP23 (6-13 November, 2017) in Bonn, the 

study “Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment” (USGCRP, 2017): was 

published in Washington, enquiring into the global warming consequences for especially the US but 

also the world. Besides rendering a long list of climate change consequences, this major report shows 

without a reasonable doubt that global warming is linked primarily with the anthropogenic causes of 

greenhouse gases, especially CO2s. CO2s have increased much the last two decades due to the 



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augmentation in the burning of fossil fuels as the main energy source.  

Decarbonisation implies much less fossil fuel consumption, but nations plan for more energy the 

coming decades, perhaps 20-30 percent. 

 

2. Decarbonisation according to Unfccc 

All countries in the world have formed a Common Pool Regime (CPR) to save the atmosphere from 

more GHGs, focusing only upon the CO2s. The global decarbonisation plan includes: 

i) Halting the rise if CO2s by 2020 (GOAL I); 

ii) Reducing the CO2s by 30-40% by 2030 (GOAL II); 

iii) Complete decarbonisation by around 2075 (GOAL III); 

iv) Decentralised implementation under international oversight, financial support and technical 

assistance. 

These are enormous goals, as only one country-Uruguay—is near GOAL I and GOAL II. Some 

countries have lately had stalling or even decreasing CO2s, but many other still face an upward sloping 

curve. 

Globally, the energy-emissions conundrum stems from the necessity of consuming energy in all forms 

of economic activity. We have the following picture for the close link between GDP and CO2s over the 

recent decades—see Figure 1. 

 

 

Figure 1. Global GDP-CO2 Link: y=0,75x; R²=0,98 

Source: See references. 

 

Burning fossil fuels is today essential for affluence and wealth, being vital to poor and rich countries. If 

energy consumption is reduced, economic recession and mass poverty would follow rapidly as well as 

of course also unemployment writ large social unrest. Planet Earth consumes simply far too much 

energy from burning the fossil fuels—see Table 1. 

 



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Table 1. Energy 2015 (Consumption in Million Tons of Oil Equivalent) 

 Total % 

Fossil fuels 11306,4 86,0 

Oil 4331,3 32,9 

Natural Gas 3135,2 23,8 

Coal 3839,9 29,2 

Renewables 1257,8 9,6 

Hydroelectric 892,9 6,8 

Others 364,9 2,8 

Nuclear power 583,1 4,4 

Total 13147,3 100,0 

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016. 

 

The hope that the augmentation of CO2s would “stall” has been nurtured widely, but now China 

reports ominously that its CO2s are set to increase again for a few years. Thus, Figure 1 may lead to the 

planet not fulfilling even COP21 GOAL I in 2020. 

 

3. APEC Connection: Asia’s Future CO2 Dominance  

The UNFCCC meetings have huge participation, besides some 190 governments. They are drowned by 

massive transaction costs. After so many global meetings, an agreement was finally reached in 

2015—The Paris climate accord or COP21 Treaty. But the next two reunions failed to deliver anything. 

As of now, there is no plan for implementing the climate global accord, nor any management strategy 

or idea how to set up the Super Fund. 

The adequate group of countries for handling decarbonisation is the G20 set of big nations, together 

with international shipping and international aviation responsible for some 80 of the CO2 emissions. 

Greenhouse gas emissions are huge in large state population wise with a medium to high affluence. Let 

us look at some of the giants around the Pacific, where economic activity has migrated from the 

Atlantic, forming the APEG association. In the G20, we have inter alia China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, 

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Russia, USA, Mexico and Canada as well as 

Germany. Can these countries fulfill the global decarbonisation Treaty? Will they do so? One country 

has already defected in this ocean PD game that plagues this CPR. Will these other big polluters 

comply? I doubt so. Without their compliance with global decarbonisation, climate change become 

unstoppable—Hawking’s irreversibility. 

 

 

 



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4. The Reneging Strategies 

The COP21 Treaty under public international is only in fact a promise. And promises are what they are, 

as they sit in the mount of the contracting parties. The nature of promises was revealed by Hobbes in 

Leviathan from 1651, stating that it involves a game with two stages: first the words, second the 

fulfillment of the words or not: 

(Q1) “Covenants, without the sword, are but words and of no strength to secure a man at all”. 

(Q2) Words are wise men’s counters, they do but reckon by them; but they are the money of fools”. 

There is no sword available under public international law to enforce decarbonisation. Only good will 

respecting the integrity of promises plus selective incentives will be decisive for the implementation of 

GOAL I, GOAL II and GOAL III. The decarbonisation promise is a complex one, involving two 

different parts: 

i) Allocation: to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels according to the global plan; 

ii) Funding: to set up and fund a giant Super Fund to create selective incentives for poor and 

developing countries to implement the global plan. The phenomenal sum of 100 billion $ 

per year has been mention for 10 years. 

Opportunistic behaviour offers many ways of reneging in both allocation and funding. The new theory 

of asymmetric information puts cheating the centre of a Hobbesian approach to global governance 

covenants and word promises. Thus, defection from a huge CPR concerning a giant resource—the 

atmosphere—with open access can occur in many forms: 

a) Reneging ex ante on allocation: making unrealistic promises; 

b) Reneging ex post on allocation: overstating accomplishments; 

c) Reneging ex ante on funding: not actually paying one’s due; 

d) Reneging ex post on funding: corruption or embezzlement. 

Combining reneging ex with defection ex post, we have the following 2X2 Diagram. 

 

 

Figure 2. Compliance and Reneging 

 

When the Trump administration reneged, it was basically an ex ante funding defection, denying to help 

India decarbonize. When president Macron invites the CPR members to Paris to discuss how to fill up 

the US funding gap, he may invite more of the same type of reneging. As Hobbes declared, words may 

be the tongue of fools, promises made may be called void because of unforeseen circumstances. China 

had promise to halt CO2 aygmentation, but less hydro power calls for more coal power and CO2s anew. 



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With so many participants in this CPR and so much money promised, the risks of dishonest 

management must be high. Too many members in a CPR, too heavy transaction costs in global 

governance? 

Let me substantiate these points, derived from the general analysis of PD games, with a few concrete 

examples from the variety pf countries or economies. Even if the UNFCCC creates an oversight 

mechanism to steer the giant decarbonisation plan for the 32st century, there will be defections. 

 

5. Take-Off Economies 

Several countries in the world have recently started the process of industrialization and urbanization, 

moving out of poverty and the dominance of agriculture. They emphasize the need for energy in order 

to develop fast. Typically, they rely upon fossil fuels, especially coal, stone or wood coal. They will 

only endorse decarbonisation, if supported by the Super Fund to move into atomic power or renewables 

like solar and wind power.  

In general one may say they are likely to renege, if they cannot find alternative sources or funding is 

not forthcoming. 

5.1 India 

One may date India’s take-off point in time to around 1990, when a heavily regulated economy with 

socialist planning was transformed into a market economy. Economic growth has since been 

impressive, but the needs are gigantic from a rapidly increasing on average poor population. Thus, 

following the approach by Rostow (1960), one must date the take-off point for India to its market 

transformation with a stock exchange in Mumbai. 

From India’s side, the position has been clearly stated (Ramesh, 2015): socio-economic development 

keep up its pace to deliver services to the millions without electricity and the large part of poor people. 

Coal will be used, if necessary. Figure 2 captures the link between GDP and CO2s. 

 

 

Figure 3. GDP and CO2s: y=0,55x, R²=0,97 

 



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The upward sloping curve is strong for Indian emissions, following its stunning expansion 

economically. And India will not accept a trade-off between growth and CO2s, putting the emphasis 

upon electrification of all households and poverty uplifting.  

Can and will India honour its dearboniisation promises? Not without foreign assistance! Look at the 

present pattern of energy consumption (Figure 1). 

 

 
Figure 4. India 

 

Fossil fuels, especially coal, dominate totally. In India, biomass is charcoal, more polluting than coal 

itself. India is completely out of tune with the COP21 objectives. 

The Indian government engages much in energy planning with foreign expertise—see Indian Energy 

Outlook from 2015 by IEA. One scenario is portrayed in Figure 5. 

 



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Figure 5. India Energy Policy Plan 

Source: https://www.slideshare.net/objectivecapital/india-growing-energy-needs-to-fuel-growth 

 

This enormous hoped for expansion in energy demand is not in agreement with global decarbonisation 

plans. To reduce c coal and charcoal India needs atomic and solar power. Hydro power requires safe 

access to water, which global warming may undo. 

5.2 Indonesia 

Like India, Indonesia is planning its energy policies in cooperation with international experts, e.g., IEA. 

It has gone through a rapid expansion of its energy production since its take-off data in the 1990s, when 

Suharto’s cronyism regime was done away with. It exports considerable amounts to gas. 

Indonesia, being a giant nation with economic growth and enormous forest burning, displays a strong 

upward trend in CO2s—see Figure 6. 

 

 

Figure 6. Indonesia 



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What makes Indonesia so important for the implementation of global decarbonisation according to the 

COP21 Treaty is not only is mega size in population, but also its rain forests in Kalimantan and 

Sumatra. The government has not been able to protect these global lungs, as they are cut down and 

burned for agriculture. This amounts to a tragedy of the commons writ large. 

The planning of the expansion of the energy sector—Figure 6—shows little regard to COP21 

objectives. 

 

 

Figure 7. Indonesia Energy Policy 

Source: 

http://blogs.vertcaptech.com/2014/01/06/renewable-energy-potential-indonesia/#.Wh_p6lWWbIU 

 

It is true that renewables are planned to increase, but so is coal. Together with forest emissions, 

Indonesia has to renege. 

 

6. Catch-Up Economies 

We speak of emerging economies against mature ones. One proper subset of emerging economies are 

the catch-up nations, who started long ago a take-off but now wants to close the gap to the mature 

economies. They are very hungry for energy. 

6.1 Brazil (not APEC Member) 

Even if Brazil is a promising country and will always be so (de Gaulle), it is interesting when compared 

with Indonesia. It is as giant big a country, aiming to be a regional leader. And it harbours the other 

lungs of Planet Earth—the Amazons. The big difference economically is that Brazil had an early 

take-off period in the 1920s, but economic decline in combination with authoritarianism led to a huge 

set-back for Latin America in the 20th century. The attempts with socialism succeeded nowhere, but 

only stimulated fascist responses. Today, Venezuela is a new tragedy of failed state intervention. 

Brazil has enjoyed a most positive economic development since the 1990s, when democracy was 



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re-established. As the GDP has increased strongly up until 2015, so have the CO2s augmented sharply 

(Figure 8), pushed of course by the burning down of the rain forests, or logging parts of it for 

agriculture. 

 

 

Figure 8. Brazil 

 

As the Brazil economy has stagnated recently, CO2 growth has stalled. However, the plans for energy 

are stunning—see Figure 9. In a time frame of 10 years or less, energy consumption is to be doubled. 

Can it be done without destroying the Amazons and increase global CO2s? 

 

 

Figure 9. Brazilian Energy Planning 

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/focus-renewable-energy-technologies-brazil-luca-gautero 

 

Energy provision is different from Indonesia’s fossil fuel reliance, as Brazil has hydro power and 

biomass energy. It uses a lot of petrol but little coal. The worry about Brazil is the enormous expansion 

plans for energy. Involving also exports to other LA countries. 

It seems as if hydro power would decline in importance, but that hides the planned double expansion. 



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Dams have been built in the Amazons, and much more is planned. Together with the cutting down and 

burning of the rain forest for agriculture, one may predict the demise of the Amazons before 2050, like 

Boneo and Sumatra. 

To fulfill its COP Treaty obligations, Brazil must invest more in solar power. According to the world 

energy reports, the country has a modest solar power plan, which is strange given its huge territory with 

so much sun. 

6.2 Mexico 

Another major catch-up economy in LA is Mexico, which like Brazil is an oil and gas producer. CO2 

emissions, like in the rich Middle East countries, tend to be high in countries with heavy oil and gas 

production. Mexico enjoyed an early take-off start point in the 20th century, but economic and political 

instability decreased the potential of the country. However, NAFTA meant a new start together with a 

democratic regime. Thus, Mexico pursues a catch-up strategy, using its vast oil and gas 

reserves—Figure 10. 

 

 

Figure 10. Mexico 

 

The rise in average affluence in Mexico has been a success story, even if the benefits from NAFTA are 

contested. One cost is apparent in Figure 10, as it documents that Mexico has become a major polluter. 

But the country has very ambitious plans to change this. First, we look at the present energy mix in 

Figure 11. The fossil fuel dependency today is close to 100 percent. But the plan is to accomplish a 

major transformation that would make the country fulfill the global decarbonisation goals. 

 



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Figure 11. Mexico Energy Consumption 

 

In the plan below, Mexico shows it is one of the first countries to take the COP21 Treaty seriously 

(Figure 12). 

 

 

Figure 12. Mexico Energy Policy Plan 

 

The 2028 vision could violate GOAL II in the COP21 Agreement, as it stipulated 30-40 % CO2 

reduction by 2030. Mexico is moving into solar power, which is its future. 

 

7. Mature Economies 

One should not believe that mature economies can or will implement COP21 objectives. Although 

several of the large rich countries have halted the CO2 increase, they certainly have to do much 

decarbonisation so reach the GOAL II. Let us look at two mature economies with large emissions. 



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7.1 South Korea 

South Korea has moved from a Third World to the set of OECD rich nations in a period of 50 years, 

with the take-off point after Japanese colonialism. The extreme economic growth has been based upon 

massive imports of energy sources, like natural gas and oil as well as coal. The outcome appears in 

Figure 13 with massive CO2 emissions. 

 

 

Figure 13. South Korea 

 

The South Korean leaders have understood that 80 percent dependency upon fossil fuels is not in 

agreement with the global hope for decarbonisation. They bet on nuclear power, given the country’s 

advanced technology assets. But the new government has revised these plans for many atomic power 

plants. Figure 14 shows the electricity generation picture, where nuclear power is to be reduced 

proportionately in the 2020s. 

 

 

Figure 14. South Korea Electricity Plan 

 



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Instead, the government now bets upon LNGs from abroad, transported in gigantic ships. But these 

plans violate the GOAL II of the COP21 Treaty. And international shipping is one of the worst sources 

of CO2s. It seems as if South Korea will have to defect, as it provides a small role for renewables. 

7.2 Australia 

Australia has always been negative to global decarbonisaion, a least according to the prevailing attitude 

among its leading politicians. This stance reflects the country’s total reliance on fossil fuels at home for 

energy, as well as its giant exports of fossil fuels to other countries, especially in the Asia-Pacific 

region. Figure 15 present a picture the most addicted to fossil fuels country in the world. 

 

 

Figure 15. Australia 

 

Without a major energy policy reversal, Australia will be forced to renege upon COP21. “Our future 

lies in keeping to increase living standards”, says PM Turnball, but more important for mankind is a 

stable environment, generally speaking. 

 

8. Solar Power Revolution in Asia-Pacific Region 

Table 2 using the giant solar power station in Morocco as the benchmark, estimates how many would 

be needed to replace the energy cut in fossil fuels and maintain the same energy amount, for a few 

selected countries with big CO2 emissions? 

 

Table 2. Number of Ouarzazate Plants Necessary in 2030 for COP21’s GOAL II (Note: Average 

of 250-300 Days of Sunshine Used for All Entries Except Australia, Indonesia, and Mexico, 

Where 300-350 Was Used) 

Nation Co2 reduction pledge/
% of 2005 emissions 

Number of gigantic solar 
plants needed (Ouarzazate) 

Gigantic plants needed 
for 40 % reduction 

United States 26-28 (Note 1) 2100 3200 



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China None (Note 2) 0 3300 

South Korea 37 260 280 

India None (Note 2) 0 600 

Japan 26 460 700 

Brazil 43 180 170 

Indonesia 29 120 170 

Canada 30 230 300 

Mexico 25 120 200 

Australia 26-28 130 190 

Russia None (Note 3) 0 940 

Canada 30 230 300 

Mexico 25 120 200 

Philippines 70 70 40 

World N/A N/A 16000 

Notes. 1) The United States has pulled out of the deal; 2) No absolute target; 3) Pledge is above current 

level, no reduction; 4) Upper limit dependent on receiving financial support; 5) EU joint pledge of 40 

% compared to 1990. 

 

9. Conclusion 

Now, there is urgent cause for alarm, as recent information says that China, the biggest emitter of CO2s, 

will not succeed to halt its curve for CO2s. Instead, it counts upon some 3 percent increases the nearest 

years—see Figure 16. 

 

 

Figure 16. China: GDP and CO2s: y=0,46x, R²=0,98 



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China has officially declared that it intends to meet both COAL I, halting the increase in CO2s, and 

GOAL II, reducing CO2s by some 30 percent. But promises and intensions are one thing, real life 

developments another matter. All countries in this CPR can at any time renege, the US has already 

done. If China too defects, then we have Hawking irreversibility. 

China promises to reduce is GHGs, especially the lethal pollution in Beijing. But it also has great plans 

for future energy demands! It is true that China moves aggressively into new power sources: solar, 

wind and atomic power. Its ambitions for air traffic, car markets and the New Silk Road are daunting. 

 

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Notes 

Note 1. The United States has pulled out of the deal. 

Note 2. No absolute target. 

Note 3. Pledge is above current level, no reduction. 

 


