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Economics, Law and Policy 
ISSN 2576-2060 (Print) ISSN 2576-2052 (Online) 

Vol. 1, No. 2, 2018 
www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/elp 

152 
 

Original Paper 

The Largest Externalities Ever 

Jan-Erik Lane1* 
1 UNIGE, Geneva, Switzerland 
* Jan-Erik Lane, UNIGE, Geneva, Switzerland 

 

Received: July 16, 2018        Accepted: July 30, 2018        Online Published: August 7, 2018 

doi:10.22158/elp.v1n2p152                 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/elp.v1n2p152 

 

Abstract 

The notion of an externality is firmly grounded in economic theory. But it is not undone by itself. To 

eliminate external effects like the GHGs and its terrible consequences like sea level rise, droughts and 

unpredictable weather manifestations, policy-making and policy implementation or management is 

required. It all depends upon incentives and available technology. The PD nature of global 

coordination is a major hindrance, which is also true of the lack of large scale geo-engineering. It is 

increasingly likely that neither global coordination nor country resilience will be able to manage the 

consequences of this evolution towards a hotter state for Planet Earth. 

Keywords 

abrupt climate change theory, only positive feedback lopes, less food and potable water, land losses, 

fires and storms 

 

1. Introduction 

Economist N. Stern has played a majpe in the scientific debate about global warming. Thus, in 2007 he 

raised correctly the issue about the biggest even externality in the history of human societies. The 

emission of GHGs were seen by Stern as an example of market failure, having very serious negative 

effects upon all countries. In 2015, he asked “What are we waiting for?”, believing perhaps somewhat 

naively that external effects could internalized between the countries as easily as externalities are 

corrected within a county. Policy-making and implementation on climate change is very difficult and 

complicated, because of the PD at the core of global warming. 

The well-known Prisoners’ Dilemma game or PD game for short offers a standard model of the 

problematic of promises: respect them or renege upon them. As social interaction is often based upon 

cooperation, the PD games lies at the heart of social life: cooperation against defection (Dutta, 1999). 

The Paris Treaty from 2015-COP21 Agreement—is an example of PD gaming. Will the promises about 

decarbonisation from 2020 to 2075 be held or not? Given that states are sovereign under Public 



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International Law (PIL), the signing governments cannot be forced by an outsider to respect the 

promises made. It is all voluntary agreement, which may be reneged upon by governments, if the costs 

of decarbonisaton appear too heavy for them each individually or simply advantageous for each one to 

continue with fossil fuels. 

The COP Treaty also falls under the model of a Common Pool Regime (CPR). CPRs are based upon 

agreements and promises among a group of actors or players concerning the regulation of the use of a 

common resource, typically in scarce supply. According to the famous Elinor Ostrom analysis (1990), 

CPRs are voluntary and rely upon self-policing. She focused upon domestic CPRs mainly, and 

downplayed too much the indirect role of the state. But we find CPRs in international relations, where 

there is no third party Umpire who can play the role of Hobbes’ illuminating judge with the sword, 

enforcing contracts or promises:  

“Covenants, without the sword, are but words and of no strength to secure a man at all”. 

Now, will the COP21 work as the CPR that saves mankind? Or will governments abstain from 

opportunistic behaviour, reneging upon their promises? Probably NOT. Why? Because the value of the 

game is tremendously important, namely energy. Hawking irreversibility is practically sure, as massive 

decarbonisation is highly improbable. 

 

2. No Rational Expectations: Stopping Irreversibility? 

Recently launched, climate and earth scientists now focus upon so-called tippng points as well as the 

great variability in temperature increases over the entire globe. The dramatic changes in the Arctic have 

made researchers focus upon the melting of the ice at the poles and Greenland and its repercussions for 

global weather and the huge methane holdings in the permafrost from Alaska to Siberia, both on land 

and in ocean. 

a) Tipping point 1: Arctic Sea ice; Expected to disappear around 2020, it will not increase sea levels 

dramatically due to the equivalence between ice and water. But this will affect global oceans streams as 

well as global weather yet streams. 

b) Tipping point 2: Greenland ice; Uncertainty when it will be gone—some say 1940, this will raise sea 

levels some 6 meters. Major city areas will inundate: Miami, Rio de Janeiro, Venice, Kairo-Alexandria, 

Mumbai, Hanoi, Shanghai, Tokyo and Singapore, for instance. It would further deteriorate oceans 

conveyor belt and the slow the global yet stream. 

c) Tipping point 3: Antartica ice mass; this enormous mass of ice and glaciers would be finished by 

some 100-500 years, rising sea levels some 60-70 meters. Mankind stand to loose a lot of land all over 

the planet Earth—a true catastrophe. 

d) Tipping point 4: constant heat increase with draught and potable water scarcity. This would reduce 

food availability and lead to millions of climate refugees from vunerable low level coastline countries 

and poor nations along the equator. 

 



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e) Tipping point 5: Methane emissions from the melting permafrost. This threat is so huge that 

mankind would never survive such a major release of a very potent GHG. But the probability is not 

known. 

The idea of so-called tipping points is that it make concrete the Hawking notion of irreversibility. 

When S. Hawking suggested that climate change was irreversible, he was met with sharp criticism. The 

notion of an irreversible process of change comes from the theory of scientific laws of nature with their 

universality and empirical necessity. If global warming is unstoppable or inevitable, then the survival 

of the human race is at stake. 

The only way to reduce the speed of climate change, avoiding inevitability, is to stop pumping GHGs 

into the atmosphere. This requires inter alia: 

i) immediate stop to coal and charcoal in poor countries; 

ii) replacing fossil fuel energy with solar panel parks of the Morroccan Quarzazate kind; 

iii) initiate now large scale geo-engineering experiments to suck up CO2s or sequestrate CO2s. 

Will these measures be taken by the UNFCCC or the G20 group of nations? Probably not. Why? 

Because of the ocean PD game involved. What matters to all countries and governments is access to 

carbon intensive energy, the culprint of the anthroposcene period. 

Financial markets and institutions have not developed any anticpations about global warming and its 

effects. One circumstance is the time horizon of different climate change predictions that run from 10 

years to hundreds of years. Thus, some climate scientists claim that societies will crumble in a ten years 

time period, whereas others say that the Earth will be ice and glacier free is some hundreds of years. 

In any case, economic output must sooner or later start declining due to immense capita destruction and 

reduced labour productivity. 

 

3. Carbon Intense Countries 

In rich countries with an economy in balance more or less, domestically and internationally, the 

Baptiste Say perspective upon economic motivation entails the idea of balanced economic growth, 

supported strongly by financial markets. Even if real economic growth fluctuates, the emphasis upon 

yearly economic growth is typical of modern capitalism or the market economy, but so far it has 

necessitated a constant augmentation of energy. Figure 1 shows the tight relation between affluence 

and energy consumption. 

 



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Figure 1. Affuence and Energy Globally 

Note. R2=0.951. 

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bank Data Indicators. 

 

Poor countries need much more energy, but of a new kind. They need assistance to move to modern 

renewable, as they will give up fossil fuel and charcoal, only if there is compensation by other new 

energy sources. The enormous demand for more and more of energy comes with a major drawback, 

namely the GHG emissions. Figure 2 has the picture for the carbon intensity of energy, resulting in 

CO2s. 

 

 

Figure 2. Carbon Intensity of Energy (Fossil Fuels/All Energy) 

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bank Data Indicators. 



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Very few countries score under 50 percent: Norway and Sweden, but several countries score 100% or 

close: The Gulf States, Algeria, former Soviet Union states, Turkey, etc. 

 

4. Human Development or Capacities of Men and Women 

The public and private sectors demand lots of energy to produce their goods and services. Energy, or 

the capacity to do work potentially or actually, is key in economic growth for enterprises and financial 

institutions in rich countries. And energy is absolutely essential in socio-economic development in poor 

nations.  

The central position of economic growth in rich countries and of socio-economic development in poor 

countries is much in consonance with basic human drives as well as with the logic of vibrant capitalism 

in the global market economy. Governments and politicians cherish economic growth, because it 

makes more policy-making possible. Look at the evidence about the positive effects of energy in the 

figures below, linking energy consumption with human development indicators. 

The living conditions in the poor countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia as well as the Pacific 

reflects the low level of energy employed. This basic fact determines life opportunities in a most 

dramatic fashion. The low access to energy has consequences for the environment and the life situation 

of people, including health, schooling, work, food and potable water.  

For instance, African countries are poor because they have too little energy. Thus, they have much less 

GHGs than Asia. Yet, they need the COP project of the UNFCCC to renew their energy sources and 

move from fossil fuels and traditional renewable to solar power. Hydro power depends upon water 

availability that shrinks with global warming. 

African energy deficit is conducive to a dire environment with enormous damages and risks. Consider 

the following global figures. Figure 3 shows how low energy leads to an unsafe environmental. 

 

 

 



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Figure 3. Energy and Environmental Risk Exposure 

Source: Environmental Performance Index, Yale University, https://epi.envirocenter.yale. IEA 

Statistics © OECD/IEA 2014 (http://www.iea.org/stats/inde). 

 

Low energy use leads to poverty, malnutrition, deceases, lack of potable water, insufficient sanitation, 

etc. Typical of many Latin American, African and Asian nations is the lack of stable electricity, which 

hampers everything and reduces environmental viability. Figure 4 has the global picture. 

 

 

Figure 4. Energy and Electricity Access 

Source: Environmental Performance Index, Yale University, https://epi.envirocenter.yale. IEA 

Statistics © OECD/IEA 2014 (http://www.iea.org/stats/inde). 



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The access to safe and stable electricity is crucial for health, schools, food, water, etc. Figure 4 links 

energy with proper sanitation. 

Especially, the rapidly growing African, Latin American and Asian mega-cities lack entirely proper 

sewage plants. Thus, dirty water is put into the big rivers where other cities downstream take their 

potable water. 

The access to safe and stable electricity is crucial for health, schools, food, water, etc. Figure 5 links 

energy with proper sanitation. 

 

 

Figure 5. Sanitation and Energy 

Source: Environmental Performance Index, Yale University, https://epi.envirocenter.yale. IEA 

Statistics © OECD/IEA 2014 (http://www.iea.org/stats/inde). 

 

Figure 6 underscores the necessity of more energy in poor countries for proper sanitation, without 

which the life of humans is “sale”. 

 



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Figure 6. Energy and Unsafe Sanitation 

Source: Environmental Performance Index, Yale University, https://epi.envirocenter.yale. IEA 

Statistics © OECD/IEA 2014 (http://www.iea.org/stats/inde). 

 

Air quality too depends upon energy access (Figure 7). 

 

 

Figure 7. Energy and Air Quality 

Source: Environmental Performance Index, Yale University, https://epi.envirocenter.yale. IEA 

Statistics © OECD/IEA 2014 (http://www.iea.org/stats/inde). 

 

Typical of many poor nations—Latin America, Africa, Asia—is the lack of predictable access to safe 

electricity, which hampers work and reduces environmental viability. The access to safe electricity is, it 

must be emphasized, absolutely central for health, schools, food, potable water, etc. Given the lack of 

enough energy in poor countries, being conducive to the above bad living conditions, one understands 



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the hopes of the poor countries for help with energy transformation, leading to better access to just 

energy! 

Given the above evidence about the positive consequences of energy for quality of life and life 

opportunities, one understand the position of the Third World at the Paris meeting that decarbonisation 

must be combined with great economic assistance to make fundamental energy transformation. The 

result was the promise of a giant Super Fund, but it is only a promise too. 

 

5. Decarbonisation? 

The decarbonisation goal of COP21 requires the support of the big countries in the world. But do they 

really aim at decarbonisation? We look at three examples here. 

5.1 India 

In Indian energy policies, it is emphasized that developmental goals take precedence over climate 

change considerations. Thus, all Indian household must have access to electricity and only sustained 

rapid economic growth can reduce poverty. India has a “take-off” economy that delivers affluence for 

the first time since independence. But it is based on fossil fuels. India looks into other sources of 

energy, as long as socio-economic development is not hindered. Figure 8 shows the main features of 

India’s future planning. 

 

 

 



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Figure 8. India’s Energy Future 

Source: 

https://scroll.in/article/843981/indias-new-energy-policy-draft-projects-coal-fired-capacity-will-double-

by-2040-is-that-feasible 

 

India has rapidly become a major CO2 emitter due to its high growth rates since 1990. It uses lots of 

coal, stone or wood. Charcoal is bad for households and results in forest destruction. India tries to 

broaden its energy supply to modern renewable, like solar, wind and hydro power. Yet, it will remain 

stuck with fossil fuels for decades. It needs assistance from the COP21 project, especially for solar 

power parks. Building more dams is very risky, as global warming reduces water assets. Figure 7 

indicates the India cannot meet its COP21 promises, as Ramesh (2015) underlines. 

India shows the same close link between GDP and energy consumption (Figure 9). 

 

 

 

 



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Figure 9. GDP and Energy in India 

Note. R2=0.94. 

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bank Data Indicators. 

 

Given this close connection between GDP and energy consumption in India, the risk is of course that 

further socio-economic developments will increase GHG emissions. India is hardly on the 

decarbomisation road. 

5.2 USA 

The US has reduced its CO2 emissions during the last years, mainly by a shift to natural gas. Actually, 

several mature economies have been able to halt the rise of CO2 emissions, either by more energy 

efficiency or a shift to natural gas or renewable. Figure 10 captures some features in US energy plans. 

 



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Figure 10. US Energy Future 

Source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee102/node/1930 

 

Although the Figure 10 predicts a doubling of renewable energy, the dependency upon fossil fuels, 

including coal energy, will not be much reduced. We are talking here about relative numbers, but if the 

US increases total amount of energy supply—fracking, then there may even be more fossil fuels. The 

reduction in CO2s during recent years seems to be coming at a reduced rate. The hope is for economic 

growth without energy increases, but we are not there yet. And most countries demand more energy for 

the future. 

 

 

Figure 11. GDP and Energy for the USA 

Note. R2=0.77. 

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bank Data Indicators. 



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Although the link between GDG and energy consumption is less tight for the USA than India (Figure 

11) reflecting that economic growth in advanced countries can be achieved without energy increase, it 

is still the case that the US is not on the road towards major decarbonisation. 

5.3 China 

China now enters the First World, as it has long passed its “take-off” point in time around 1980 and has 

pursued a successful “catch-up” policy for a few decades. Its energy consumption, especially of fossil 

fuels, has skyrocketed with GDP, resulting in the largest CO2 emission globally. Figure 12 has a 

projection for China. 

 

 

Figure 12. Energy Projection for China 

Sources: http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/chinas-projected-energy-growth-fuel 

 

Decarbonisation does not seem highly probable. Much hope was placed at a recent reduction in CO2s, 

but water shortages forced China to revert to coal in 2017 with attending augmentation of CO2s. China 

is investing in both renewable and atomic power, but it also plans for large energy increase in the 

coming decades with lots of energy consuming new projects (Figure 13). 

 



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Figure 13. GDP and Energy for China 

Note. R2=0.98. 

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bank Data Indicators. 

 

Such a close connection between GDP and energy consumption in China implies that China must turn 

to renewable massively in order to comply with COP21 goals. 

 

6. Cooperation or Defection in Ocean Games or Global Clubs 

The COP21 Treaty, or any other similar agreement, would have two parts: 

i) reduction of CO2 emissions in a certain pace towards zero emissions at some future date; 

ii) contributions to the Super Fund yearly according to some scheme and time table. 

Both these two actions concern first and foremost the countries in the G20 group of nations, 

responsible for 70 per cent of the total CO2 emissions. Small poor nations can be left beside, as they 

pollute little and cannot be required to pay into the Super Fund. 

Both i) and ii) are just promises, which the COP21 Secretariat or the UN cannot enforce, strictly 

speaking. When a country receives support the Super Fund, there is some leverage to force obedience. 

However, a big poor country may simply refuse decarbonisation, if no assistance is provided. 

Decarbonisation is costly in the short run for all countries, as the must replace existing energy plants 

with new, hopefully renewable energy resources. Contributing to the Super Fund is also costly in the 

short run. This sets up an interaction where a government may be tempted to defect from its promises 

to decarbonise or pay to the Super Fund. 

A. Strategy of poor nations: the N-1 problematic. Poor or small nations will engage in opportunism 

with guile in order to avoid too large costs with the COP21 decarbonisation policy, pretending they 

matter very little for outcomes. 

 



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B. Strategy of the rich country: the 1/N problematic. Large or rich countries will find sacrifices that 

cannot be internalized as meaningless gifts to others, who may not be trusted to cooperate. Thus, the 

US reneged because it did not want to pay for decarbonisation in India. 

The PD nature of interaction in a global CPR like the COP21 Treary is fragile, to say the least. What is 

lacking is the instruments of control, as Hobbes pointed out already 1651 in his Leviathan, saying: “Not 

believing in force is the same as not believing in gravitation”. 

 

7. Domestic Policy Concerns Override International Coordination 

A government may bind the state it represents to far-reaching objectives like complete decarbonisation 

at an international reunion, but it is really just a “scrap of paper”. If matters really press concerning 

safeguarding national interests, the government simply reneges. When water becomes scare for Chinese 

energy dams, then coal is resorted to again, with new CO2 augmentation. 

Domestic politics play a major role in energy policy besides international accords. Here are three 

examples 

a) Japan’s dilemma 

After the Fukushima disaster, Japan closed 50 of its 52 reactors. The country relies much upon the 

import of various energy resources. Will Japanese politics allow a return ro nuclear power or will Japan 

like South Korea rely massively upon LNG from Australia? One possible scenario is ourlined in Figure 

14. 

 

 

Figure 14. Energy Plan for Japan 

Source: 

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-Plan-sets-out-Japans-energy-mix-for-2030-0306154.html 



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b) Germany & France: nuclear distrust 

Despite all propaganda about so-called Energiwende, Germany remain much dependent upon fossil 

fuels. High grade coal is imported from Russia and Colombia to add to its own low grade and dirtier 

coal, besides all the natural gas from Gazprom. At the same time, nuclear power are closing—all up to 

2022. France is also closing nuclear plants, despite the fact that they could be used longer and made 

safer. Both countries should turn to solar power—see Table 1, but may be expected to burn biomass or 

biotrash, which emits CO2 inter alia. 

 

Table 1. Number of Ouarzazate Plants for 40 Percent Reduction of CO2 in Some Giant Countries 

(Average of 250-300 Days of Sunshine Used for All Entries Except Australia, Indonesia, and 

Mexico, Where 300-350 Was Used) 

Nation 
Co2 reduction pledge/% 

of 2005 emissions 

Number of gigantic solar 

plants needed (Ouarzazate) 

Gigantic plants needed for 

40% reduction 

United States 26-28i 2100 3200 

China noneii 0 3300 

EU28 41-42 2300 2300 

India noneii 0 600 

Japan 26 460 700 

Brazil 43 180 170 

Indonesia 29 120 170 

Australia 26-28 130 190 

Russia noneiii 0 940 

Germany 49iv 550 450 

France 37v 210 220 

Sweden 42v 30 30 

World N/A N/A 16000 

Note. i) The United States has pulled out of the deal; ii) No absolute target; iii) Pledge is above current 

level, no reduction; iv) Upper limit dependent on receiving financial support; v) EU joint pledge of 40 % 

compared to 1990. 

 

c) Swedish folly 

Sweden used to be lucky with energy resources, relying upon its many rivers and modern high tech 

with very safe nuclear power stations. However since 2000, it now abandons nuclear power at 

astronomical costs, relying instead upon the import of biomass or biotrash. GHGs now increase for 

Sweden. 

 



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d) Summing up: Climate change is much more lethal than a nuclear power plant accident.  

 

8. Conclusion 

The prospects for decarbonisation halting climate change seems grim, especially if abrupt climate 

change theory is correct. The crux of the matter is energy, which still comes with a high carbon 

intensity in most countries. Energy is the capacity to do work, which is the foundation of affluence. 

Figure 15 brings this fact out clearly for 2017. 

 

 

Figure 15. GDP and Energy for the Globe 2017 

Note. R2=0.8. 

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bank Data Indicators. 

 

Of course, all nations want to move along the upward sloping line in this figure, “catching-up” as it 

were. Stern’s (2007, 2015) calls remain unanswered or perhaps not even heard by the decision-makers 

globally. The only remedies are avoiding coal and charcoal, replacing fossil suels with solar power and 

start large scale geoengineering. Otherwise, there will be dismal predicament with hunger, thirst, child 

morality, eco-emigrants at many places, fires in the Boreal forest as well as in the rain forest, 

agricultural failure, drought, enormous storms, and finally massive land inundations. Can war be 

avoided in such a predicament? 

The big unresolved issue in abrupt climate change theory is the time horizon for the positive feedbacks: 

arctic ice melting, melting of ice and glaciers on Greenland and Antarctica, arrival of serious drought in 

various regions and the start of decline in food and potable water resources. The biggest unknown is 

though that methane bomb, which would kill mankind if it goes off 100 percent. 

 



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