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Economics, Law and Policy 
ISSN 2576-2060 (Print) ISSN 2576-2052 (Online) 

Vol. 1, No. 2, 2018 
www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/elp 

170 
 

Original Paper 

Diagnostics of the Life Deficiency of Life of the Population of 

Ukraine 

E. B. Boichenko1* & N. О. Vasilchuk1 
1 Institute of Economic and Legal Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, 

Ukraine  

* E. B. Boichenko, Institute of Economic and Legal Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of 

Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine 

 

Received: October 14, 2018    Accepted: October 22, 2018    Online Published: November 6, 2018 

doi:10.22158/elp.v1n2p170                 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/elp.v1n2p170 

 

Abstract 

The article is devoted to the determination of the lifespan deficiency of the population of Ukraine. The 

diagnostics is carried out on the basis of generalization of studies by domestic and foreign scientists in 

the context of lifespan. Calculations were made on the basis of official data of the State Statistics of 

Ukraine and the World Health Organization. In the article, by the lifespan deficiency of the population, 

it is suggested to mean actual shortage of a certain period of lifespan that has resulted from death 

coming from external and/or internal causes that prevent a person from living to the limits of his/her 

biological capabilities. The diagnostics is based on the methodology for constructing mortality tables 

of average expected lifespan for one year and five years old age groups. The results of the diagnostics 

made it possible to find that the real lifespan deficiency in Ukraine is 12.4 years. In addition, it was 

determined that the potential lifespan deficiency of the Ukrainians from so-called “diseases of 

behavior” is 2.47 years. It was substantiated that, in the context of overcoming mortality from such 

diseases as AIDS, active tuberculosis, alcoholism, and drug addiction by adjusting the behavior of the 

population in society, lifespan can increase by almost three years. 

Keywords 

health, health status, lifespan, healthy life duration, average expected lifespan, real lifespan deficiency, 

potential lifespan deficiency, lifespan diagnostics, premature mortality 

 

 

 

 



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1. Introduction 

One of the most important indicators of the socio-economic development of society is average expected 

lifespan at birth (indicator of longevity), which is one of the indicators of the quality of life of the 

population. Singling out this component by the UN as one of the three components that characterize the 

welfare level of the population is due to the fact that the indicator of average expected lifespan depends 

on the conditions of human life. 

The high mortality rate of the population of Ukraine, especially at the working age, affects the expected 

lifespan of the population and becomes one of the urgent problems of society. On this premise, modern 

studies of the structure and dynamics of the lifespan of the population, as well as the identification of 

the reasons influencing it, are of particular importance. Solving this problem requires careful scientific 

research and analysis. 

1.1 Analysis of Recent Research and Publications 

Health status and lifespan extension has been attracted, are attracting and will always attract attention 

both in scientific circles and in everyday life of ordinary citizens of the whole world. Thanks to works 

of such authors as: Human Development of the Regions of Ukraine: Analysis and Forecast Collective 

Monograph K.: Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of 

Ukraine, Health and life expectancy in Ukraine in the context of the prerequisites for an innovative 

employment. Demography and Social Economics, Demographic Consequences of Alcohol Abuse in 

Ukraine, Demography and Social Economy, Economic equivalent of losses due to premature mortality 

in Ukraine, Demography and social economy. Mortality of the Ukrainian population in working age, 

and others, modern Ukrainian science has a substantial number of works devoted to addressing 

problems of lifespan of the population. 

Among the recent works focused on addressing issues of extending lifespan through overcoming 

illnesses, of interest are the works by Hall, Taylor, Barnes. Dependence of the achievement of the goals 

of the sustainable development of the Eastern Mediterranean on the improvement of public health was 

studied by Akbar, Hirani, Richter, and many other researchers, but this is not sufficient to solve 

problems of overcoming the lifespan deficiency of the population of Ukraine. 

1.2 Purpose 

The purpose of the article is to determine the expected lifespan deficiency at birth of the population of 

Ukraine. 

1.3 Result and Discussion 

According to the World Health Organization (data as of 2017), Ukraine ranked 104th in the world in 

terms of population lifespan. So, with regard to this indicator, Ukraine was left behind not only by 

countries that are classified as economically developed, but also by many developing or 

underdeveloped countries such as Nicaragua (75th place), Honduras (77th place), Venezuela (85th place), 

Azerbaijan (96th place), Libya (97th place), Belarus (98th place), Guatemala (101st place), Bangladesh 

(102nd place). The main reasons for such a situation are the low level and unfavorable conditions of 



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living and working of a large part of the population of Ukraine, low efficiency of the existing health 

care system, pollution of a large part of the territory by industrial waste, prevalence of bad habits, and 

neglect of healthy lifestyle standards. 

The lag, with regard to the indicator of average expected lifespan at birth, of Ukraine from European 

countries leads to deterioration in the quality of life and to changes in the structure of the population. 

Thus, population lifespan in Ukraine in 2016 amounted to 71.38 years, including 66.37 years for men 

and 76.25 years for women. The difference in the lifespan of men and women in our country is almost 

10 years, while in economically developed countries this indicator is 5-6 years. 

 

2. Deficiency of Life Expectancy 

It should be noted that by the lifespan deficiency of the population (from Latin deficit-it lacks) one 

means actual shortage of a certain period of lifespan that arose as a result of death coming from 

external and/or internal causes that do not allow a person to live to the limits of his/her natural abilities. 

By natural human abilities of a person, the authors mean the age which can potentially be reached by 

80% of the representatives of the corresponding generation. 

In theory and practice, real and potential lifespan deficiency is singled out. Real deficiency, according 

to the authors, can be considered as the number of years that Ukrainians fail to live to reach the 

maximum lifespan recorded in the world. It is clear that each year these indicators will vary depending 

on the statistics provided by the World Health Organization and the UN. Potential deficiency should be 

considered as a period of time by which lifespan is reduced depending on various causes that can 

potentially be eliminated, or whose effects can be reduced. Thus, in order to develop an effective 

mechanism for overcoming the lifespan deficiency of Ukrainians, it is advisable to differentiate the 

causes that cause it. 

In previous studies, it was found that the formation of the value of average expected lifespan at birth is 

influenced by the following factors: man-made, physiological, and socio-economic ones (Figure 1). 

 



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Figure 1. Factors Influencing the Formation of the Value of Average Expected Lifespan at Birth 

Source: author’s formulization according to previous research. 

 

It is clear that the threat of the effects of the listed factors on a person will always be present. However, 

reducing the threat of the effects of some of them is possible through changes in social behavior, 

through raising the level of public responsibility and consciousness, etc. 

It is found that the real lifespan deficiency of the Ukrainians is 12.4 years. This shows that the 

inhabitants of Ukraine do reach the possible hypothetical limit of the natural possibilities of the 

organism of a person. 

Thus, if the socio-economic conditions of the reproduction of the population are changed, and the 

changes are aimed at improving their lives, one can count on an increase in the lifespan at birth by 

almost 12 years. 

In this study, we give an example of the calculation of the potential average expected lifespan 

deficiency at birth caused by the causes of mortality from so-called “socially dangerous diseases”, that 

is, “diseases of behavior”, the dynamics of which is presented in Table 1. 



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Table 1. Dynamics of Socially Dangerous Diseases in Ukraine 

Indicators 

Years Deviation 

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 
abs., pers. 

1995-2016 

rel., % 

1995–2016 

Living with HIV 1529 30692 62936 110503 126759 133117 131588 8606 

per 100,000 of 

population 
3.0 63.1 134.6 242.3 297.6 313.8 310.8 10360 

AIDS, persons 54 917 5096 1402 34055 38779 38725 71712,9 

per 100,000 of 

population 
0.1 1.9 10.9 30.8 80.0 91.4 91.4 91300 

Active tuberculosis, 

persons 
99518 122904 103177 78635 36228 34966 -64552 -64.9 

per 100,000 of 

population 
194.8 250.6 220.7 172.5 85.1 82.4 -112.4 -57.7 

Mental and behavioral 

disorders due to alcohol 

consumption, persons 

736215 687716 650177 607461 475670 470196 -266019 -36.1 

per 100,000 of 

population 
1441.3 102.4 1390.8 1332.2 1116.8 1108.6 -332.7 -23.1 

Mental and behavioral 

disorders due to the 

consumption of drugs 

and psychoactive 

sub-stances, persons 

46515 76041 87883 80589 61715 62204 15689 33.7 

per 100,000 of 

population 
91.1 155.1 188.0 176.7 144.9 146.7 55.6 61.0 

Source: calculated according to data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.  

 

Mortality in Ukraine from the illness caused by the human immunodeficiency virus in 2016 amounted 

to 4036 cases (9.9 ‰0). The number of people infected with HIV and AIDS who were registered at 

medical institutions of Ukraine in 2016 amounted to 133117 (313.8 ‰0) and 38779 (91.4 ‰0) persons 

respectively. 

The dynamics of the spread of this infection over the last decade suggests that it is spreading at an 

exponential rate. And this is just official data. Back in 1995, the World Health Organization classified 

Ukraine as a country with a low prevalence of AIDS (HIV). However, we can assume that the real 

estimate of patients to some extent exceeds the official statistics. 



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The complex epidemiological situation in Ukraine with tuberculosis morbidity and mortality is causing 

concern. According to scientists, the current problem of the third millennium in the world has been the 

increase in the incidence of tuberculosis and the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus, with 

those illnesses belonging to the most dangerous and widespread diseases in the world as well as in 

Ukraine. It is also noted that these diseases have not been eliminated in any country in the world.  

Despite the fact that the number of patients with active tuberculosis diagnosed for the first time in life 

has a stable tendency to decrease from 29753 in 2000 to 23292 in 2016 (it is more than 20%), the 

number of patients remains high enough. This trend can also be traced when calculating using 100000 

of population: from 60.4 in 2000 to 54.8 in 2016. On average, over 20000 persons in Ukraine annually 

are found to have tuberculosis. 

Most often, people of working and reproductive age are struck (Figure 2). 

 

Figure 2. Age Structure of Persons Who Contracted Tuberculosis in Ukraine in 2016 

Source: compiled by the author based on the works of Petrenko. 

 

3. The Reasons for the Shortage of Life Expectancy Growth 

Among the most common causes of the increased incidence of tuberculosis are the following. First and 

foremost, these are socio-economic problems of the development of society, the consequences of which 

are a decline in the standard of living of the general population, malnutrition and violation of nutrition 

regime, food of low quality, which further reduces the body’s resistance to tuberculosis. The second 

reason is the lack of funding for anti-TB facilities. Other causes include: the existence of a significant 

number of patients (more than 10 thousand people) in detention facilities; social problems, namely 



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unemployment, alcoholism, drug addiction, stress, etc. The current dynamics of tuberculosis mortality 

tends to increase. Thus, since 1991, the mortality rate from this disease has increased from 8.1 per 

100000 of population in 1991 to 10.2 in 2016. It is evident that the spread of social diseases such as 

AIDS and tuberculosis occurs in countries (regions) with serious socio-economic problems, which, in 

turn, leads to an increase in the number of deaths from this disease. 

According to analysis of the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Ukraine, it has been found that 

there is a negative tendency to an increase in their consumption volumes. World Bank experts believe 

that in Ukraine, 40% of deaths of men and 22% of women of working age (from 20 to 64 years old) are 

the result of alcohol consumption. This is especially true for the consumption of strong alcoholic 

beverages, which is the most harmful to the health of the population and leads to negative social and 

economic consequences. 

During the 90’s of the twentieth century, the incidence of drug addiction and substance abuse has 

increased fourfold in Ukraine; also, the number of patients (per 100,000 people) who are registered for 

mental and behavioral disorders due to the consumption of drugs and other psychoactive substances 

more than tripled. Thus, the spread of drug addiction in Ukraine remains, along with alcoholism, one of 

the most important and most acute problems.  

Given the fact that official statistics do not give a real picture of the consumption of drugs by the 

population, the extent of this problem is not determined. Drug consumption leads not only to the 

physical and social degradation of a person, but also to extremely negative consequences for society. 

Among them, one can mention the following ones: 

- rise of the level of crime, increase in the number of grave and gravest crimes; 

- spread of a wide range of concomitant diseases (hepatitis, tuberculosis, HIV, AIDS, which requires 

the state to increase the expenses for their prevention and treatment). 

A significant impact on the lifespan of the population is made by the existing rate of mortality of the 

population from alcoholism and drug addiction. The consumption of alcoholic beverages amounts to 

1.7% of the total household cash expenditures per month (for example, healthcare consumes about 

2.1% of household expenditures). It should be borne in mind that there are no direct statistics of alcohol 

consumption in Ukraine; such an assessment can only be made on the basis of the volume of registered 

alcohol sales or according to relevant sociological surveys. The reliability of official statistical 

reporting is questionable, since it does not reflect the true capacity of the Ukrainian alcohol market, the 

size of which is much larger than the declared one. The corresponding expert estimates of alcohol 

consumption among Ukrainians are averagely hovering around 10-13 liters per capita. 

It is worth remembering that, according to the WHO, alcohol consumption of more than 8 liters per 

year is dangerous and detrimental to health. Thus, an increase in average per capita consumption of 

alcohol by 1 liter adds 8 male and 1 female suicides per 100000 men and 100000 women. For 

alcoholics, the risk of suicide is 9 times higher than for the rest of the population. 

 



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The World Health Organization experts have found that each additional liter of pure alcohol above the 

specified limit causes a reduction in lifespan by 11 months for men and 4 months for women. Also, 

there is a close connection between the indicators of alcohol consumption, on the one hand, and the 

level of injury and mortality from accidents and the incidence of many chronic diseases, on the other 

one. 

Among drug addicts, other diseases and viruses (HIV, hepatitis viruses, etc.) are also common, which 

significantly reduce the lifespan of a person. There is an assumption that the average lifespan of people 

who regularly take opioid drugs is 7-10 years since the beginning of narcotization. 

Thus, it can be argued that the morbidity and mortality from AIDS, active tuberculosis, alcoholism, and 

drug addiction are an important indicator that influences the lifespan of the Ukrainians. As already 

noted, these diseases are considered “diseases of behavior”. That is, these diseases, as well as the 

consequences of mortality from them, can be avoided if adjusting the behavior of the population in 

society. 

In order to calculate the expected lifespan of the population of Ukraine according to a hypothetical 

scenario, we will give the indicators of mortality from such diseases as AIDS, active tuberculosis, 

alcoholism, and drug addiction (Table 2). 

 

Table 2. Structure of Mortality of the Population of Ukraine in 2016 

Age interval, 

years 

In all For certain causes of mortality 

Number of 

the dead 

Mortality 

rate 

Mortality rates from 

a disease caused by 

HIV(per 100 000 of 

population) 

Mortality rates 

from tuberculosis 

(per 100000 of 

population) 

Mortality rates from 

mental and behavioral 

disorders due to alcohol 

consumption 

0–1 3318 722.2 1.3 0.3 0 

1–4 662 37.2 0.1 0.4 0 

5–9 419 18.0 0.1 0 0 

10–14 454 21.9 0.1 0 0 

15–19 1154 58.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 

20–24 2437 89.7 1.5 1.6 0 

25–29 4867 142.2 8.3 6.1 0.6 

30–34 7875 225.5 21.2 10.2 1.1 

35–39 11001 360.8 31.9 18.9 2.2 

40–44 14108 489.9 28.6 19.9 2.6 

45–49 17448 658.9 21.1 21.7 4.7 

50–54 26564 913.1 12.4 22.0 4.3 

55–59 37541 1296.6 6.3 18.0 4.4 



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60–64 49010 1981.8 2.6 13.6 4.0 

65–69 53626 2822.1 1.1 6.1 2.5 

70–74 59328 4285.1 0.3 6.0 1.4 

75–79 108579 6785.0 0.2 5.2 0.9 

80 and 196405 19550.3 0.2 3.4 0.9 

All population 594796 1477.1 10.0 1.2 1.9 

Source: built according to data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, compiled by the author 

according to data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.  

 

The next stage in diagnosing the lifespan deficiency of the population of Ukraine is the construction of 

mortality tables and the calculation of the average expected lifespan of the population. The calculations 

are made based on the “Methods for constructing mortality tables and average expected lifespan for 

one year and five year age groups”.  

Firstly, estimates of the average expected lifespan of the population of Ukraine in 2016 under real 

conditions were made. The resultant value of lifespan at birth is 71.38 years. 

Secondly, calculations of the hypothetical average expected lifespan of the population of Ukraine at 

birth in 2016 are made. That is, if the rate of mortality from a disease caused by human 

immunodeficiency virus, tuberculosis, alcoholism, and drug addiction were excluded, it is calculated 

that the lifespan would be 73.85 years. 

Thus, it can be argued that the potential lifespan deficiency of the Ukrainians from so-called “diseases 

of behavior” is 2.47 years. Consequently, on the assumption of overcoming mortality from such 

diseases as AIDS, tuberculosis, alcoholism, and drug addiction by adjusting the behavior of the 

population in society, lifespan is increased by almost two and a half years. 

A significant impact on the formation of the expected lifespan of the population at birth is made by 

deaths due to safety breaches in the workplace. A high degree of wear and tear against the backdrop of 

low investment activity in industry and the municipal sector remains a potential threat of accidents and 

incidents at hazardous industrial facilities, including those with fatal consequences. Physical and moral 

aging of production equipment is a problem that concerns all sectors of the economy and is 

characteristic of all regions of Ukraine. 

According to conclusions of appropriate commissions, in 2016, in the event of failure to take necessary 

measures for safety and lack of personal protective equipment, 4429 accidents directly related to 

production occurred, of which 357 (8.1%) had fatal outcomes. Thus, the elimination of mortality due to 

safety breaches and accidents is a potential opportunity to increase the lifespan of the population of 

Ukraine. 

It should also be noted that the potential for increasing the lifespan of the population includes the 

exclusion of mortality from transport accidents (in 2016, the number of victims was 4687 people) and 

intentional self-harm (the number of deaths is 6898 people). Consequently, the hypothetical elimination 



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of mortality due to these reasons will increase the expected lifespan at birth by about 1 year. 

 

4. Conclusion and Recommendations 

The authors’ assessment of the lifespan deficiency in Ukraine has made it possible to draw the 

following conclusions. Firstly, the lifespan deficiency of the population is actual shortage of a certain 

period of lifespan that arose as a result of death coming from external and/or internal causes that do not 

allow a person to live to the limits of his/her natural abilities. By the natural abilities of a person we 

mean the age that can potentially be reached by 80% of the representatives of the corresponding 

generation. 

Secondly, the lifespan deficiency of the population can be presented as real and potential. The real 

deficiency is considered as the number of years that Ukrainians do not live to reach the maximum 

lifespan recorded in the world. As for the potential deficiency, it is proposed to consider it as a period 

of time by which lifespan is reduced that is caused by a specific cause which can potentially be 

eliminated (or the consequences of which can be reduced). 

Thirdly, the determination of the average expected lifespan deficiency at birth as a result of mortality 

from the main causes allows establishing a change in the value of this indicator, provided that the 

mortality from a particular cause is completely eliminated. 

It is substantiated that an important indicator that influences the lifespan of the Ukrainians is the 

morbidity and, as a consequence, mortality from AIDS, active tuberculosis, alcoholism and drug 

addiction, transport accidents and intentional self-harm. 

It is established that the real lifespan deficiency in Ukraine is 12.4 years; the potential lifespan 

deficiency of the Ukrainians caused by so-called “diseases of behavior” is 2.47 years. It is substantiated 

that in case of overcoming mortality from diseases such as AIDS, active tuberculosis, alcoholism and 

drug addiction, transport accidents and intentional self-harm by adjusting the behavior of the 

population in society, the lifespan may increase by almost 3.5 years. 

 

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