




































 
 
 

 

1 
 

Economy 
Vol. 5, No. 1, 1-7, 2018 

ISSN(E) 2313-8181 / ISSN(P) 2518-0118 
DOI: 10.20448/journal.502.2018.51.1.7 

 

 
 
 
Determining Issues of the Economic Essence and Methodology of Foresight 
 

Lamara Qoqiauri1
    

Nino Qoqiauri2    
 
1Doctor of Economics Sciences, Academician of Georgian Economics Academy, Senior Research Scientist-
Coworker at  the National Institute of Economic (AAEP), United Kingdom 

 
2Master of Sokhumi State University, Georgia 

 
 

( Corresponding Author) 
 

 
Abstract 

The article discusses key issues of the origin, development and essence of modern 
foresight. There is explained three main program of foresight. In scientific –technical 
programming is the foresight a new event or not, how is it possible to positioning the 
foresight in strategic planning , is its methodology used at regional level or not, in the 
paper there are also given the stages of formation of foresight, the parallelization is given 
between forecast and foresight and it is justified that the participants of foresight create 
real possibilities not only for forecast, also they discuss the future possible alternatives 
and develop strategies to implement more  promising projects. Methodological issues of 
foresight are also studied, in particular, normative and exploratory approaches, a wide 
range of methods used for foresight: Creativity, Expertise and Forecast, Analysis, 
Interaction –Delphi – Methods of Survey establishment on quality information. 

 
Keywords: Determinants, Foresight, Delphi method, Strategic management, Explanatory approach. 

 
Citation | Lamara Qoqiauri; Nino Qoqiauri (2018). Determining 
Issues of the Economic Essence and Methodology of Foresight. 
Economy, 5(1): 1-7. 
History:  
Received: 24 October 2017 
Revised: 22 December 2017 
Accepted: 3 September 2018 
Published: 10 January 2018 
Licensed: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons 

Attribution 3.0 License  
Publisher: Asian Online Journal Publishing Group 
 

Contribution/Acknowledgement: Both authors contributed to the 
conception and design of the study. 
Funding: This study received no specific financial support. 
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflict of 
interests. 
Transparency: The authors confirm that the manuscript is an honest, 
accurate, and transparent account of the study was reported; that no vital 
features of the study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the 
study as planned have been explained. 
Ethical: This study follows all ethical practices during writing.   

 

 

Contents 
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 
2. Review of Literature ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2 
3. Main Part .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 
4. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 
References ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 
 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.20448/journal.502.2018.51.1.7&domain=pdf&date_stamp=2017-01-14
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
https://orcid.org/orcid-search/quick-search?searchQuery=Lamara Qoqiauri
https://orcid.org/orcid-search/quick-search?searchQuery=Nino Qoqiauri
https://orcid.org/orcid-search/quick-search?searchQuery=Lamara Qoqiauri
https://orcid.org/orcid-search/quick-search?searchQuery=Nino Qoqiauri
https://orcid.org/orcid-search/quick-search?searchQuery=Lamara Qoqiauri
https://orcid.org/orcid-search/quick-search?searchQuery=Nino Qoqiauri


Economy, 2018, 5(1): 1-7 

2 
 

 

1. Introduction 
The world experience of the development of economics in the different fields of business truly proved that to 

develop economical business subjects effectively and in a stable way can be reached by total usage of innovations. 
In today‟s conditions different kinds of enterprises are functioning in quite difficult, indefinite, dynamically 
changeable space of social-economical environment. Innovations themselves support to reach favourable, strategic, 
competitive conditions in the market. 

Nowadays the country‟s  main goal of modern social-economic development is its movement towards 
innovative road, maximal usage of principally new factors of economical growth that is common for postindustrial 
informative era. This task is very important for modern Georgia. The  necessity of movement to innovative road of 
the county‟s economics requires strong activization of innovative business. So  to emphasize innovative sphere in 
the basis of development of its new directions will make it possible to overcome the problems of Georgia‟s big and 
traditionally  increasing position of being behindhand ( in comparision with the world‟s highly developed countries 
in different field of economics.) 

To manage effective innovative politics we consider the necessity of management of enterprises and 
innovations, new mechanisms of planning and prognosis formation, strategic projection of the county‟s dominant 
trends, to  reveal factors of trends change.)  Obviously, it is important to work out an acting plan on the basis of 
possible future development. 

The above mentioned problems are not well studied in economical literature. In our article we aimed to study 
world experience of technological foresight research, its main point, aim and tasks. Besides we searched materials 
of foresight and principle features and stages of future prediction, combination of different methods of foresight, 
about the spheres of foresight usage. 

 

2. Review of Literature 
Composition of prognosis of development of the county‟s scientific technical sphere, to study technological 

foresight requires definite logical succession. We used Vienna and Brussels EC bureaucracy materials, as well as 
about scientific-  technological foresight in economical literature. We also used European developed countries – 
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Finland, Germany, Italy, Spain, Great Britain‟s etc, exiting materials abut foresight 
development organizations business. 

During the work on the article we also based on papers of: (Barker and Smith, 1995; Saritas and Oner, 2004; 
Linstone, 2011; Kastro et al., 2012). 

  

3. Main Part 
The concept Foresight represents innovation for world, which is confirmed by the dynamics of distribution of 

this term and Foresight works. Herewith, this is one of rare cases, when innovation is first tested in the region and 
then – in the center. 

The word „foresight‟ foresees “looking into the future”. In the most general form, foresight represents the 
system of forecasting. The most cited determination of foresight is that of American expert B. Martin, focused on 
the forecasted side of foresight, it focus on identification of strategically and socially important development zones. 
However, we consider this determination not to reflect all opportunities of foresight and its social-humanitarian 
sides (UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual. 2005)1.   

Of course, single determination cannot cover all sides of foresight, as practical objective of the Article is 
theoretical development of the content of his term for the purpose of regional foresight, in this article we are 
interested in three main directions. First – does foresight represent new phenomenon compared to the scientific-
technical forecasting, taking place in our country; second – how can foresight be positioned in the field of strategic 
planning or, in wider sense, strategic management of the region; and third – foresight methodology is applied to 
the regional level.  

Regarding the first issue, there are two opinions of the issue. One is that the foresight appeared in the 50s of 
last century in the company Rend Corporation2, which developed Delphi method and applied it for the purpose of 
forecasting. This point of view, in fact identifying the term forecast and foresight, is represented in several foreign 
sources and sometimes is reproduced in the native publications. 

Another method of approach exists in the fact that Foresight, as the system of forecasting was registered only 
at the end of 80s of 20th century. The matter is not the distinction in time, but in the principle of change. Foresight 
represents particular methodology, the essence of which is not only in forecasting of the future and in the agreed 
development of decisions regarding future in the field selected for foresight. It in fact solves the problems of 
achieving consensus in relation with the future through agreement of the interests of different social layers of 
public society, and in the active activity-related form. Thus, to our mind, it becomes not only prognosis, but also – 
social and humanitarian technology. In such a holistic form as the socio-humanitarian technology of foresight was 
formed only at the end of the last century and this process is not yet completed. 

The first foresights were carried out exceptionally for scientific-technical domain, due to which they were 
called the technological foresights. After this, from the field of defense, foresight tools was migrating social domain 
and policy to the economy and were being transformed into the market-oriented foresights. Social and cultural 
outcomes of occurrence and introduction of technologies (for example, influence of internet on the family, political 
institutes and organization of labor) were evaluated in them. Under modern conditions, foresight has been being 
concentrated to the discussion of different actual universally valid problems, such as the problem of hanger, 
poverty, security etc. When transferring to the third stage, foresight is becoming the technology for elite 
communication, forming consensus regarding view of the future in society. 

                                                             
1 Technology forecasting first came to prominence in the late 1950 s in the United States deference sector and in work by consultants such an the RANZD 
Corporation. The latter were responsible for developing some of the principal fools of technology forecasting, such us the Delphi questionnaire survey and 
scenario analysis. Larger forecasting exercises ware carricd out during the 1960 s by the united states Navy and the united States air Force 
2 Delphi method – is considered one of the central method. 



Economy, 2018, 5(1): 1-7 

3 
 

 

Currently, foresight uses system instruments of influence in formation of the future, allowing foreseeing 
possible changes in all fields of social activities: science and technologies, economy, social, public relations, and 
culture. This is the reason for common use of “Foresight” without the adjective “Technological”. 

Frameworks for occurrence of foresight in world are observed by the specialists differently as well. For 
example, there is the opinion regarding the fact that there already were “full foresights” performed 10 years ago, 
and “the first complete foresight in Georgia was evaluation of the conditions and prospects of development of 
critical technologies, performed in 1997-1998”, in which Delphi-surveys are applied. Next foresight in these series 
is “Scenario forecast of development of science and technologies before the year 2010”. Essentially, the opinion that 
the forecasting works carried out in our country in 50s represented foresights may be the option of this position. 

Of course, occurrence of foresight in Russia may be classified only in case of identification and forecasting. To 
our mind, these processes are similar, but different and distinction between them may be demonstrated through 
analysis of the principles of foresight and forecasting (See the Table 1). 

 
Let us review stipulated issues in details. 

Let us review consistently – integral characteristic of Foresight, for which we refer to the history of different 
forecasts. As known, forecasting was originated long ago and, surprisingly, forecasts of scientists are much more 
exact, than those made by science fiction writers, giving rise to the idea of one-sidedness of scientific forecasts. 
Examples of unfulfilled technological forecasts are quite numerous; both in terms of denying the prospects of many 
of today's technical achievements that have entered our life, and, conversely, reassessing technical prospects. 
However, a number of technological forecasts can be considered erroneous only by implementation dates.  Based on 
this, we can conclude that one-time technological forecasts should be systematically refined. 

 
Table-1. Distinction of Forecasting and Foresight 

Parameter Forecast Foresight 

1. Content The formulation of scientifically grounded 
judgments about possible states in the future of 
some object on the basis of current trends, 
without taking into account the particular 
interests of the players 

Developing a vision for the future, identifying 
areas of research and the emergence of 
technologies that can bring the greatest economic 
and social benefits based on the desired future. 

2. Participants 
and experts 

Scientists, politicians  Representatives of all key participants of 
development: scientific-technical field, business, 
government, society 

3. Destination Predicting options of the future Development of the image of the future; 
concentration of resources on the directions 
necessary for its achievement 

4. Method of 
realization 

Enforcement of administrative orders or 
convictions 

Encouraging the implementation of selected paths 
based on the adoption of agreed upon interests 
solutions 

5. Influencing 
processes 

Recognizes existing trends Shows possible ways of adjusting existing trends 

6. Results Reports 
Reports can be compared with the actual result 

Reports 
Reports can be compared with the actual result 

   Source: Kovalev (2013). 

 
Systematical forecasting of social and political processes is much more important, which has not been done 

within the framework of scientific-technical forecasting. Upon discussing the issue of distribution of Foresight, V. 
A. Nikonov stated that none of the real historic issues, overturning the fate of Russia and science was not 
forecasted; that preferences of scientific-technical policy often depend on political decisions; and the fact, how 
political management represent preferences from the point of politics, and not from the point of –technology.  

It is interesting that within the framework of the foresight; in particular, in the development of foresight of the 
Company Shell, its futurists foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

The history of development of Foresight, as the determined methodology demonstrates gradual shift from 
single forecasting to the systematic process of forecasting; from foreseeing opinions of the scientists to the 
foreseeing of the opinions of different layers and representatives of society; from forecasting technological 
processes to the prediction of social outcomes and the results of technical progress, and, in particular regard, to the 
forecasting of social processes. 

Thus, if the prognosis is completed document3, which may be foreseen upon expiration of particular term, it 
may be possible to distract from such necessity, then the foresight represents permanent corrected process of 
forecasting, and developed as a result of foresight, the documents are reviewed depending on the changes, taking 
place in the society. 

Following distinction touches upon participants. Forecasting is mainly performed by a corporation of 
scientists. Different layers of society participate in formation of the foresight as experts. Based on the international 
practice of development of foresights, not only the representatives of science, but also those of business field, public 
organizations and power structures, municipal formation, public movements, civil unions, and societies of scientists 
and experts perform the role of experts. Their opinion, their experience and interests are reflected in the 
discussions about possible state of the future. Besides this, establishment of the network of high-qualified and the 
participant concerned is important not less than the forecasting itself, in the result of foresight. These are the 
networks comprising of active citizens of different layers of society being able to form due response on the political, 
economic, social and other calls, as they, as participants of the process, have premonition to measures of precise 
preventive action and being ready to use the resources owned by them. 

                                                             
3 Thus, if the prognosis is completed document. 



Economy, 2018, 5(1): 1-7 

4 
 

 

Hence, forecast – this is the working of the grounded judgments about possible states of some objects in the 
future, based on the formed trend of its development. Foresight is comprised of the elements of active influence 
upon future, in the form of agreement of particular interests of different social layers of civil society, their 
aspirations and requests as direct participants of these processes. Foresight is more sensitive to these interests, 
being able to be concentrated on the cultural forecasting of changes in the society. When allocating zones of 
prospective investigations and denoting the emergence of key technologies, which may have the economic and 
social profit, foresight forms reference points for all active participants of public society. 

If the forecast is greatly citing objective processes and shows the options and versions of the future, Foresight 
foresees opportunity for selecting the option of action depending of the “vision” of future, i.e. actually is directed 
towards designing of future and searching of the methods of its achievements; it also shows possible methods of 
their adjustment (Popper, 2007). Correspondingly, foresight stops being just a set of forecasting tools, i.e. obtains 
projection prospects for public changes.  

Next purpose of Foresight is “sawing” opinion about different participants of social-economic life, in order to 
develop agreed opinions about future in the field, which is under Foresighting. Hence we may consider that 
foresight, according to its purpose, supports development of the experience of interaction and cooperation of state 
and scientists. 

Important adverse product of the foresight is also named the mechanism of evaluation of technologies, project 
of programs, and political institute. 

What is the position of Foresight in the system of strategic management of a region? It shall be noted that 
formulation of strategic management of a region itself is quite new. It is related with the theoretical assumptions 
regarding the fact that the region is an independent business entity. Despite significant theoretical progress in this 
direction, there also are the arguments regarding the fact that a region is not a business entity; it is only 
administrative-territorial formation within a country, carrying out federal regional policy. We used to ground the 
position regarding the fact that market economic system is based on the federal system of state structure, in which, 
market-safety grounds of which is competition of strategic economic units – regions. This is conditioned by the 
development of global competitive processed and those of global regionalization, where regions become subject not 
of only domestic, but also – international competition, and the regions of different levels of configuration. 

In this regards, Foresight serves to develop a vision for the future of the region, taking into account national 
and global priorities, on the one hand, and resource, national-cultural, social and even mental peculiarities of the 
participants of regional economies. 

It shall be noted that institutionally, forming of the system of strategic management of regions commenced 
long ago. State institute of regional management in person of the Ministry of Regional Development was 
established only in 2004. Currently methodological recommendations on development of the strategies of 
development of the subjects of federation have been developed. The strategies, in their turn, are considered and are 
subject to agreement with the working bodies of the Ministry. Agreement assignment includes determination of 
correspondence of strategies of development with of the subjects of the federation and sectorial strategies. At the 
same time, yet development of regional strategies do not represent mandatory mechanism. Moreover, institutional 
status of regional Foresight is not determined. 

There is the issue of conformity of the strategy and Foresight. “Our” Foresight, to our mind, is comprised of 
the detailed development of the conducting of the fields, which are the most important for the region and selected 
for the regional foresight at the first stage of its conducting. Outcomes of Foresight make foundation for 
development of a strategy. On the other hand, Foresight may solve the issues of development of separate field in 
more details, which are not foreseen in the strategy. Besides this, Foresight solves the issues of widening circle of 
stakeholders, involved in the development of a strategy, improving methodology and technology of development of 
strategy, including a system of methods of its preparation, which are specific, characterizing for the Foresight (for 
example, forming experts‟ panels, conclusion of mental maps) and documents (for example, technological road 
maps, etc.). 

Let us review methodological side of foresight. Foresight foresees particular methodology, allowing realization 
of its principles and achieving desired results, which does not represents completely lineal, strongly structured and 
formalized ones. 

Methodology of Foresight is based on two methods of approach: normative and exploratory (search). 
Normative method of approach towards forecasting means orientation to the mission of subject (organization), 
requirements and objectives, achievement of which is the purpose of subjects. Normative method of approach 
begins from the determination of the options of desired future. It gives answer to the questions: which trends and 
events shall bring us to this future. Normative forecasting is confirmed by the movement in space of technologies 
from the technologies of higher level to the technologies of lower level, i.e. from requirements and purposes to the 
means of their realization. 

Example of regulatory forecasting may serve to the forecasting in the field of space, when forecasted proved is 
represented in the form of continuous movement of technologies from the understanding of the problem of space to 
the field, which shall solve in favor of a human, up to the particular means of its solution – conditions for nuclear 
fission and amount of the energy released, etc. 

Exploratory method of approach (in Russian literature it is also called surveying, researching or searching one) 
begins from the present and responds to the questions: which will happen in the future, in case of continuing 
essential trends. 

Searching foresight is based on the orientation towards the further opportunities, determination of the trends 
of development of the situations on the basis, upon development of the forecasted information. 

Example of searching foresight may be forecasting in the field of electronics, when forecasted process is 
represented in the form of the consistent technology transfer, starting from the quantum electrodynamics and 
completed with the instantaneous global communication. 

The set of the methods used for foresight, is quite extended, they may be systematized through several criteria: 
per the type of foresight: normative (building desired future) or searching (formation of the image of the future 
based on the identified trends); per purposes (development of ideas or analyze), per tools (quantitative or 



Economy, 2018, 5(1): 1-7 

5 
 

 

qualitative), per methods of working with experts (full-time and part-time, surveys and direct personal interaction); 
per the degree of traditionalism and innovation. 

Methodology instrument of foresight currently includes diverse methods of development of buildings in 
different sciences and applied fields, as traditional methods of forecasting, analyzing and development of ideas, so 
new creative methods developed in course of performing foresight works. Main methods, used today in course of 
conducting foresights, reflect its reasonable functions – forecasting (forecasting trends), analytical (analyzing 
existed situation), and creative (development of new ideas regarding the future). Particular methods, along with the 
stipulated functions, provide interaction of developers. 

Correspondingly, entire set of the methods may be divided into 7 groups. In the materials of the United 
Nations Industrial Development Organization, all the methods are presented in the form of a diamond, on the 
angles of which there are characteristics of creativity (creative potential), expertise and forecasting, analyses and 
interaction are concentrated. Several methods may be used as for different purposes – for forecasting, learning 
environment and analyzing of trends, for development of the ideas regarding future and receiving ideas regarding 
current objectives of foresight (and correspondingly, they will be repeated in different groups). 
 

 
Fig-1. Diamond of the Methods of Foresight 

                         Source: Popper (2007). 

 
Correspondingly, we may count in this set 17 quantitative methods, 10 semi-quantitative and 6 qualitative 

Methods. 

 
Methods of Forecasting (Expertise): 

 Delphi Method, 

 Scenario Development, 

 Determination of Critical Technologies, 

 Trend Extrapolation, 

 Simulation Modelling, 

 Critical/Key Technologies, 

 Method of Historic Similarity, 

 Other Methods Based on the Analyze of Exact Empiric Data. 
 

Analyzing Methods: 

 SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats-Analysis), 

 STEEPV, 

 Cross-impact Analysis, 

 Environmental Scanning, 

 Expert Panels, 

 Essay Preparation, 

 Cross Impact Analysis, 

 Relevance Trees, 

 Balance score card. 
 
Methods of Developing Ideas (Creative Methods): 

 Experts‟ discussions, 

 Focus-groups, 

 Brainstorming, 

 Conferences, 

 Essay Preparation, 

 Morphological Analysis. 



Economy, 2018, 5(1): 1-7 

6 
 

 

New Creative Methods: 

 Wild cards, 

 Technology Road Mapping, TRM, 

 Relevance Trees. 
Of course, some methods may serve as for the analysis, so – development of ideas. 

Normative methodology is mostly uses Delphi-surveys and methods, basing on the qualitative information. 
Particularly, method of expert panels received extensive development, which were greatly oriented towards a work 
with not only quantitative, but also – qualitative information, received directly from experts. Qualitative 
information usually is represented in the form of verbal descriptions, when evaluations were obtained through 
verbal or verbally figurative scales, when there is information only about comparative assessments of alternative 
options. So-called “Success Scenario” and compiling “desired scenario of collective activities” are used, where 
participants are trying to establish a shared vision of the future, which represents as desirable, so – probable, and 
identification of the methods through which it might be achieved. 

For searching Foresight other methods are more suitable, which are based on the analysis of the exact empiric 
data, in which preference is given to quantitative information. Using qualitative (non-quantitative) information in 
the searching Foresight is also possible.  Example of this is the use of intuitive methods of the same method of 
scenario or the method of expert curves, allowing determination of the scheduled trends of changing situation, 
basing not only on the empiric data, but also on the experience of high-qualified specialist experts. The trends and 
influences are analyzed, investigations for determination of cross impacts are carried out, ordinary Delphi-method 
and some applications of the models. 

Selection of the methods for particular program of Foresight, as a rule, is individual depending on the purposes 
and financial terms and conditions. Criteria for selection of the methods: 

 Available resources (time, money, experience); 

 Nature of desirable participation; 

 Appropriateness for the combination with other methods; 

 Desired methods for performance of foresight (for example, document or process); 

 Quantitative/qualitative requirements of methods to the data; 

 Methodology competence. 
It is clear that methodology competence will become key factor in course of selection of methods. For example, 

at Baikal Forum in the report H. Funning they stated that they were carrying out Foresight of own Land (regions 
in Federal Republic of Germany are called Land), determining problems and desired vision under the method of 
Disney, which is not included into the Diamond of the methods of Foresight, and it may also be allocated to the 
creative methods. The definition of appropriate methods for the region requires special development. 

 

4. Conclusion 
So, the Foresight is system of expert assessment methods for strategic directions of social economic and 

innovative development, to find out technological breakthroughs that have the ability to influence the economy and 
in the medium and long term perspective. 

Expert assessments are the bases for assessing future options. The Foresight‟s methodology has been selected 
to do a number of traditional and rather new products. At the same time, their constant perfection, methods and 
procedures are developed, which ensures the improvement of the perspectives of scientific-technical and socio-
economic development perspectives. The main sector of methodology development is aimed at more active and 
purposeful use of experts‟ knowledge of the project participants. Usually in every Foresight  project, is used the 
combination of different methods, among these are the expert panels, the Delphi (expert survey in two stages). 
Swat analysis, mental storms, construction of scenarios, technological road maps, relevance trees mutual analysis 
and etc. In order to foresee possible options and get a full picture a large number of experts are invited. For 
example in the development of long-term forecasts of scientific-technical development in Japan, which is conducted 
in every five years, more than two thousand experts participate, they represent all important directions of science 
technology and techniques. And at the last Korean Foresight project more than then thousand experts participated. 

Foresight is focused not just for alternatives, but also the choice of the advantageous ones. Selection criteria are 
used to select a comparatively advantageous option. For example criteria for achieving growth can be used when 
choosing critical technologies and for the field , when building road maps-identify potential market marks and  
Reveal and to choose those technologies which  enable to work out  competitive products  for forming market as 
fast as possible. Choice of development strategy is carried out on the basis of order of wide expert consultations, 
that makes it possible to predict the most unexpected ways of development of events and possible “underwater 
cliffs”. 

Foresight thinks that desirable variant of future is greatly  depended on sections that should be carried out 
today, so choice of variants are going on by working out  those events, that will support optimal traecroty of 
innovative development. 

Most Foresight projects, as a central component, includes perspectives of science and technological 
development. As a rule, these topics are subjects of judgement not  only for scientists  but also for politicians, 
businessmen, practician, specialists from different spheres of economics. The result of such discussions is formation 
of new ideas, which are connected to perfection of management mechanisms, to integration of science, education 
and economics and last, to increase of the state branch or the region competitiveness. Besides, the very “ future 
prediction” – systematical efforts organization conditions formation of higher culture of management and finally, 
formation of more argumentative, scientific- technical and innovative politics. 

Foresight- projects are  oriented not only to get new knowledge as a form of speeches, set of scripts, 
recommendations, etc. its main result is development of informal interrelations among their  participants and 
formation of the same opinion on the situation. 



Economy, 2018, 5(1): 1-7 

7 
 

 

In some projects horizontal branch areas are formed, in the frames of which scientists, businessmen, high 
school representatives and neighbouring sphere specialists systematically discuss common problems and it is 
understood as one of the main effects. 

Foresight is formed as systemic process, which should be thoroughly arranged and organized. As a rule, 
foresight- projects are carried out quite regularly , sometimes by repeated scheme (as Japanese long-term 
prognosis, which has been carried out in every five years since1971.) In other cases research is made as order of 
interrelated projects, that are aimed for  solving interrelated tasks and about long – term perspectives on formation 
of agreed representation of Technologies, Innovations and Community development. 

Foresight is more important approach than a complex compared to the traditional speech. 
First of all, forecasts as a rule are established by a narrow circle of  experts and in  most cases it  is associated 

with less predetermined events. (for example, forecast of Auction Course, Weather, Sports results). I the frames of 
foresight there is discussed the evaluation of possible perspectives of innovative development, which are related on 
science and technology forecasts, there are possible technological horizons, with can be achieved during the 
investing funds and during the systematic world. It is also probable effects for Economy and Society. 

Secondly, Many experts are always involved in foresight (often through intensive interaction) from different 
fields of activity, which are related to the themes, of foresight projects and sometimes on the survey of a certain 
group of population (the inhabitants of the region, the youth…etc.), which are connected to solve problems. 

Third, the difference between the foresight and forecast - is orientation on development of practical measures 
for approaching selected strategic orientation. 

  

References 
Barker, D. and J.H.D. Smith, 1995. Technology foresight using roadmaps. Long Range Planning, 28(2): 21 – 28. View at Google Scholar | View at 

Publisher 
Kastro, E.A., J.L. Marques and M. Borges, 2012. Foresight methodologies. Application to the housing market. Proceedings of the 52nd 

Congress of the European Regional Science Assotiation. 
Kovalev, V.I., 2013. Foresight: Prognozirovanie innovatsii ili innovarsii v prognozakh? Vestnik Omskogo Gosudarstvennovo Universiteta, 

2(68): 169 – 172.  
Linstone, H.A., 2011. Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation, 31(2-3): 69 – 76. View at Google Scholar | View at Publisher 
Popper, R., 2007. Methodology: Common foresight practices and tools, in Georghiou, L., et al., International Handbook on Foresight and 

Science Policy: Theory and Practice. Edward Elgar. Retrieved http:www.foresight-
network.eu/files/reports/efmn_mapping_2007.pdf. 

Saritas, O. and M.A. Oner, 2004. Systemic analysis of UK foresight results: Joint application of integrated management model and road 
mapping.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(1 – 2): 27 – 65. View at Google Scholar  

 

Bibliography 
Fischhoff, B., 1975. Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertaint. Journal of 

Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3): 288 – 299. View at Google Scholar | View at Publisher 
Kaliujhnova, N. and S.I. Voilin, 2006. 20 questions and 20 answers. Irkutski. M: 12. 
Miles, I. and R. Popper, 2008. The handbook of technology foresight. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. pp: 154. 
Richardson, J., 2014. ICSU foresight analysis. International Science in 2013 – Exploratory Scenarios. Foresight, 16(2): 192 – 195. View at Google 

Scholar   
Roue, M. and D. Nakashima, 2002. Knowledge and foresight: The predictive capacity of traditional knowledge applied to environmental 

assessment. Roue M., Nakashima D., - UNESCO: 337 – 347. Retrieved http://www.botanischergarten.ch./Patents/Roue-
Foresight-Int–Soc–Sci–1468–2451.00386.pdf. 

Strategia, A. and C.A. Papadopoulou, 2013. Foresight analysis at the regional level – a participatory methodological framework. Journal of 
Management and Strategy, 4(2): 1. View at Google Scholar | View at Publisher 

 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Asian Online Journal Publishing Group is not responsible or answerable for any loss, damage or liability, etc. caused in relation to/arising out of the use of the content. 
Any queries should be directed to the corresponding author of the article. 

 

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=Technology%20foresight%20using%20roadmaps
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(95)98586-h
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(95)98586-h
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=Three%20eras%20of%20technology%20foresight
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.technovation.2010.10.001
http://www.foresight-network.eu/files/reports/efmn_mapping_2007.pdf
http://www.foresight-network.eu/files/reports/efmn_mapping_2007.pdf
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=Systemic%20analysis%20of%20UK%20foresight%20results:%20Joint%20application%20of%20integrated%20management%20model%20and%20road%20mapping
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=Hindsight%20is%20not%20equal%20to%20foresight:%20The%20effect%20of%20outcome%20knowledge%20on%20judgment%20under%20uncertaint
http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=ICSU%20foresight%20analysis.%20International%20Science%20in%202013%20–%20Exploratory%20Scenarios
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=ICSU%20foresight%20analysis.%20International%20Science%20in%202013%20–%20Exploratory%20Scenarios
http://www.botanischergarten.ch./Patents/Roue-Foresight-Int–Soc–Sci–1468–2451.00386.pdf
http://www.botanischergarten.ch./Patents/Roue-Foresight-Int–Soc–Sci–1468–2451.00386.pdf
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=Foresight%20analysis%20at%20the%20regional%20level%20–%20a%20participatory%20methodological%20framework
http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/jms.v4n2p1

