economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 126 review of the monograph “population of the republic of moldova after 30 years of independence: major challenges and policies needed” (editor – dr.hab. olga gagauz) doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-11 olga penina, dr. in medicine, “nicolae testemitanu” state university of medicine and pharmacy of the republic of moldova. department of social medicine and management https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3884-2751 e-mail olga.penina@usmf.md received 18 may 2022 accepted for publication 24 june 2022 populația republicii moldova la 30 de ani de independență: provocări principale și politici necesare / olga gagauz, mariana buciuceanu-vrabie, irina pahomii [et al.]; coordonator: olga gagauz ; institutul naţional de cercetări economice, centrul de cercetări demografice. – chişinău : ince, 2021. – 168 p. https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.ccd.2021.978-9975-89-248-3 https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-11 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3884-2751 mailto:olga.penina@usmf.md https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.ccd.2021.978-9975-89-248-3 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 127 the collective monograph “population of the republic of moldova after 30 years of independence: major challenges and policies needed” is prepared by a group of moldovan demographers from the centre for demographic research of the national institute for economic research (dr.hab. olga gagauz, dr. mariana buciuceanu-vrabie, irina pahomii, vitalie stirba, tatiana tabac, ecaterina grigoras). the monograph is devoted to an exhaustive analysis of the population dynamics and the main demographic process in the light of socio-economic changes in the republic of moldova during the 30 years of independence. after declaring its independence in 1991, the republic of moldova, like the other newly independent states, experienced numerous social, economic and political disturbances. certainly, these changes have had a significant impact on population structure and main demographic processes such as fertility, mortality and migration. the overall negative vector of the country’s demographic development is first and foremost due to mass migration of the moldovan population, lower fertility and high mortality. the shortand long-term effects of these demographic shifts on the country’s socio-economic development and national security are extremely serious and require evidence-based policies. from this standpoint, this monograph can be used as a guide for decision-makers in the process of developing and implementing public policies. one of the greatest strengths of the manuscript is the reliability of the statistical data used by the authors, including the own population estimates of the centre for demographic research, which can sometimes differ significantly from officially published data. a further important feature is that the analysis is given in the context of the principal public policies of the past three decades, which makes it possible to assess their impact on demographic dynamics. finally, the in-depth analysis of population change and its main components allowed the authors to develop different scenarios on the future dynamics of the moldovan population and to formulate a set of practical recommendations for decision-makers. chapter 1 presents the main information on changes in population size and structure and raises the issue of the quality of population data. in particular, the authors provide detailed information about the data sources available for population estimates in moldova and compare them to their own estimates. particular attention is given to the evolution of the population in the territorial profile, which should be of particular interest to policymakers. chapter 2 is dedicated to the evolution of fertility in moldova and its main determinants such as education and ethnicity. the combination of transversal and longitudinal approaches enabled the authors to depict the true picture of the fertility transition in moldova in the european context. further, the evolution of fertility in the country is explained very clearly through the prism of the second demographic transition. a special interest, therefore, concerns the detailed analysis of births outside marriage and the differentiation of fertility by the level of education. the authors give a critical insight into the various factors that have contributed to the decline in fertility in moldova, from the economic crisis of the 1990s and social anomie theory to the impact of covid-19 pandemics in 2020. chapter 3 focuses on the analysis of mortality and life expectancy in the country, reflecting changes in the health of the population over the past thirty years. the authors examined the contribution of changes in mortality by age and cause to the changes in life expectancy at birth over three different periods (1991-2000, 2000-2010 and 2010-2020). to better understand the differences and similarities with other post-soviet countries, the authors provide a comparison with estonia, where mortality was almost identical to that of moldova immediately after the collapse of the soviet union. in addition, the authors competently analysed the issue of high working-age mortality from the perspective of premature mortality, including years of potential life lost, and cause-specific avoidable economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 128 mortality. special attention was given to mortality due to covid-19 infection and its impact on life expectancy changes in 2020. chapter 4 looks at the most challenging demographic issues for moldova, namely population migration. the authors start with a very clear description of terminology and data sources on population migration. on the basis of various statistical sources, including mirror statistics of the destination countries (mainly russia, italy) and border crossing migration data, very valuable information on the evolution of migration flows for the study period is presented. the citizenship naturalization process in the main destination countries may be of particular interest to the reader. chapter 5 deals with the population projection drawn up for the period 2019-2040. it is important to stress that population projections are based on different scenarios for future trends and patterns in fertility, mortality and migration resulting from the study of long-term demographic changes. another important feature of the presented population projection is that it refers to the concept of the usually resident population recently adopted by the national statistical office. chapter 6 discusses the changing social and economic conditions of the moldovan population during the period of independence, which has a direct influence on demographic dynamics. using representative national sociological investigations, the authors provide a detailed analysis of the social well-being of the moldovan population, access to health services, labour force and its quality and capitalization in the local marketplace. an important conclusion concerning the poor and even declining quality of life and the increasing income inequality of the population is made. the monograph concludes with key findings and a set of practical recommendations that are based on the concept of “demographic resilience”. the authors underline that the process of depopulation associated with a rapid population ageing in moldova cannot be solved solely by improving the country’s economic conditions. they consider that the reduction of migration, which is a key factor of depopulation in the country, is only possible with significant improvements in all aspects of people's lives. the recommendations addressed to policymakers are directly based on the results of the authors’ study, are clearly formulated and align with contemporary theoretical and practical concepts of demography. the monograph is distinguished by a high level of approach to the topic, accompanied by high-quality graphs, maps and tables, which contributes to an easy perception of the presented material. the authors used rich and relevant literature sources, including references to their own writings, some of which have been presented in scientific journals and conference proceedings. the monograph is written in a professional style in romanian and is well organized. the authors express their thoughts clearly, technical terms are used, but their definition is clearly explained. i respectfully recommend the publication of the monograph “population of the republic of moldova after 30 years of independence: major challenges and policies needed” (editor – dr.hab. olga gagauz), and i hope that it will serve as a practical guide by decision-makers in the field of demographic policies. chisinau, february 2022 theoretical and scientifical journal 10 december no. 2/2020 the impact of banking network services through profitability on indonesia banking companies euphrasia susy suhendra1, dr., ir.ms, gunadarma university, indonesia emmy indrayani2, se. mmsi, gunadarma university, indonesia dia ragasari3, skom., mm, gunadarma university, indonesia gesty ernestivita4, s.s., mm, nusantara pgri university, indonesia doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-01 jel classification: e59, g21, m21, o33 udc: 336.71(594) abstract the banking sector has embraced the use of technology to serve its clients faster and also to do more with less. emerging technologies have changed the banking industry from paper and branch based banks to digitized and networked banking services. atm machines and the number of switching networks is among the technologies used in the banking industry. the aim of this study is to analyze the influence of network switching and number of atm machine through non-interest income to profitability. the paper proposes to examine whether the number of atm machines of the bank affect the fee-based income, whether the amount of atm switching network membership of the bank affects the bank's fee-based income, and whether the feebased income affects the performance of the bank. the study was conducted in banking companies belonging to members of the switching principal network appointed by bank indonesia and switching network companies in indonesia. the data used for this research is represented by financial statements from indonesian commercial banks that have gone public, data from banking magazines and data available from each bank's page avaiolable for open access. the number of samples from this study is represented by 30 commercial banks that are listed in idx. the results of this study show that the number of atm machines has no significant effect on fee based income. at the same time, the number of switching networks has a significant effect toward fee based income, and the fee based income has no significant effect on the bank’s return on investment. keywords: atm, switching network, fee based income, profitability. sectorul bancar a acceptat utilizarea tehnologiei pentru a servi clienții săi mai repede și, de asemenea, pentru a face mai multe acțiuni cu mai puține resurse. tehnologiile emergente au schimbat industria bancară de la bănci cu lucru pe hârtie și sucursale bancare, la servicii bancare digitalizate și în rețea. bancomatele și numărul de rețele de comutare reprezintă una dintre tehnologiile utilizate în industria bancară. scopul acestui studiu este de a analiza influența comutării rețelei și numărul de bancomate prin venituri fără dobândă până la profitabilitate. lucrarea își propune să examineze dacă numărul de bancomate ale băncii afectează venitul pe bază de comisioane, dacă valoarea calității de membru al rețelei de comutare bancară afectează venitul pe bază de comisioane al băncii și dacă venitul pe bază de comisioane afectează performanța băncii. studiul a fost realizat pe companii bancare aparținând membrilor rețelei principale de comutare numite de bank indonesia și companiilor de rețele de comutare din indonezia. datele utilizate pentru această cercetare sunt reprezentate de situațiile financiare ale băncilor comerciale indoneziene care au devenit publice, datele din revistele bancare și datele disponibile de pe pagina fiecărei bănci în acces deschis. eșantionarea acestui studiu este reprezentată de 30 de bănci comerciale care sunt listate în idx. rezultatele acestui studiu arată că numărul de bancomate nu are niciun efect semnificativ asupra veniturilor bazate pe taxe. în același 1 id orcid 0000-0002-3864-136x e-mail: susys@staff.gunadarma.ac.id 2 id orcid 0000-0002-8720-1352 e-mail: emmyindra@gmail.com 3 id orcid 0000-0003-4014-0393 e-mail: diaragasari4@gmail.com 4 id orcid 0000-0002-3864-1045 e-mail: gesty@unpkediri.ac.id economy and sociology 11 december no. 2/2020 timp, numărul de rețele de comutare are un efect semnificativ asupra veniturilor bazate pe taxe, iar veniturile bazate pe taxe nu au un efect semnificativ asupra rentabilității investiției bancare. cuvinte-cheie: bancomat, rețea de comutare, venituri bazate pe taxe, profitabilitate. банковский сектор стал использовать технологии, чтобы быстрее обслуживать клиентов, а также делать больше с меньшими затратами. новые технологии изменили банковскую отрасль от банков, основанных на бумажном документообороте и филиалах, до банков с цифровыми и сетевыми услугами. банкоматы и количество коммутационных сетей являются одной из технологий, используемых в банковской сфере. целью данного исследования является анализ влияния коммутации сети и количества банкоматов через непроцентный доход на прибыльность. в статье предлагается изучить, влияет ли количество банкоматов банка на комиссионный доход, влияет ли сумма участия банка в коммутационной сети банкоматов на комиссионный доход банка и влияет ли комиссионный доход на результаты деятельности банка. исследование проводилось в банковских компаниях, принадлежащих членам основной коммутационной сети, назначенной банком индонезии, и коммутационных сетевых компаниях индонезии. данные, использованные для данного исследования, представлены финансовыми отчетами индонезийских коммерческих банков, которые стали общедоступными, данными из банковских журналов и данными, доступными на страницах каждого банка в открытом доступе. выборка исследования представлена 30 коммерческими банками, которые перечислены в idx. результаты исследования показывают, что количество банкоматов не оказывает значительного влияния на комиссионный доход. в то же время, количество коммутируемых сетей оказывает существенное влияние на комиссионный доход, а комиссионный доход не оказывает значительного влияния на рентабельность инвестиций банка. ключевые слова: банкоматы, коммутационная сеть, комиссионный доход, прибыльность. introduction indonesia is a hugely significant market for financial services, not only in south-east asia, but on the global stage, too. home to more than 261 million people, it is the world’s fourth most populous country and also the largest island nation on the planet, comprising more than 13,000 islands. from a financial services perspective, indonesia has huge potential, but also some very real challenges to overcome, most notably financial inclusion. as the national government pursues initiatives to address this problem over the coming years, atm deployment could prove a vital part of the mission. indonesia is the largest atm market in south-east asia, with the number of machines spread across the country passing the 100,000 mark in 2018, according to retail banking research (rbr). it is a heavily cash-based society, meaning there is ongoing demand for atm services. this is particularly relevant in light of the fact that, even though there are more than 35,000 bank branches in indonesia and financial institutions (fis) are expanding their physical networks into underserved areas, an increasing number of services are moving into digital channels. as a result, banks are seeking to maximize efficiency in their branches through strategies such as self-service automation. from a financial inclusion perspective, innovation in the atm channel could have an important part to play in expanding service availability throughout the country. the development of the ‘bank in a box‘ concept means it’s now possible for banks to use atms to provide a range of services in areas where it might be impractical or financially infeasible to open a branch. in the emergence of using atms, an atm network company or a so-called switching company that will handle the connection and needs required in the implementation of using card as a payment instrument will also automatically appear. the company is working with banks in indonesia. so far, an atm interconnection company is mainly (fundamentally) hereinafter referred to in indonesia as the switching company. the research features 3 switching companies that have operated and already hold a licence from bank indonesia pt. artajasa pembayaran elektronis which manages the atm bersama network, pt. rintis sejahtera which manages the prima atm network, and pt. daya network lest which manages the alto atm network. but in 2017 a new principal switching was present company which is also pt. it is the telkomsigma or himbara – atm link, which has operated an atm network of stateowned banks, namely bank bri, bank mandiri, bni and ban btn for approximately seven years. himbara https://banking.com/analysis/financial-inclusion-collaboration-diversity-key/ https://www.ncr.com/company/blogs/financial/what-will-2018-bring-for-the-atm-channel https://www.rbrlondon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ssba18_press_release_170118.pdf https://www.ncr.com/company/blogs/financial/branches-still-matter-so-make-sure-yours-run-efficiently http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39709920 theoretical and scientifical journal 12 december no. 2/2020 link was formed in order to realize the plan of bank indonesia to develop interconnection and interoperability of payment systems in indonesia. in accordance with the press release of bank indonesia on 2018, a press release on "developing interconnection and interoperability of payment system with the national payment gateway (npg)" while at the same time signing a memorandum of understanding conducted by four banks and three national principal switching companies (bank indonesia, 2016). this research generally aimed at analyzing the effect of bank indonesia regulation on npg creation on bank earnings and performance. in this study, npg represented many network switchings owned by a bank. the study was conducted in banking companies belonging to members of the switching principal network appointed by bank indonesia and switching network companies in indonesia. in detail the problems to be studied in this research were to first examine whether the number of atm machines of the bank affect the fee-based income, secondly whether the amount of atm switching network membership of the bank affects the bank's fee-based income, and the third whether the fee-based income affects the performance of the bank. the hypothesis of this study is three-fold. first, the number of atm machines affect the bank's feebased income. second, the amount of switching network membership used affects the bank's fee-based income. third, the bank’s fee-based income affects the performance of the bank. literature review the bank is a financial intermediary institution generally established with the authority to accept deposits of money, lend money, and issue promissory notes or banknotes (hoggson, 1926). in their development, banks need information technology. information systems technology proves that it continuously plays an important role in building an organization and its existence. therefore, it is necessary to align the strategic model between business strategy and information system/technology strategy to ultimately improve organizational performance. alignment of strategies for companies to achieve targets supported by information systems in their business processes will provide accurate information for management (hamzah, 2007). the plastic card is basically a card issued by a particular bank or company and that can be used as a means of payment for the transaction of goods or services, guaranteeing the validity of checks issued, and for withdrawing cash (siamat, 2005). the use of the term „credit card” actually causes confusion because the term is often meant also for other types of cards that are not always related to credit card functions. therefore, the specific term used is a plastic card (plastic card) (siamat, 2005). all transactions conducted and using information technology in banking will require a special information technology for banking called core banking. core banking is the heart of a bank. core banking stores data of customers and their accounts and all transactions since the customer opened an account at the bank until it closes (www.teknologibank.com 2016). core banking is generally associated with retail banking. the main core banking function is to serve customers for funding, lending and deposit money. another function of core banking is recording all transactions that occur in the customer's account either in the form of savings, loans, or payment transactions. access to core banking can be done through many channels such as teller (branch), atm, internet banking, mobile banking and others (www.teknologibank.com, 2016). in addition to core banking, a vital technological element owned by the bank is atm switching. the atm switching solution is known by different names. although in the international world this solution is called eft switching (electronic fund transfer switch), in indonesia it is better known as atm switching. this naming is actually not appropriate because this solution is also used to drive pos/edc (electronic data capture). it is worth noting that the term atm switching refers to software used to drive physical channels (such as atm and edc), perform authorization and transaction routing, and electronic data exchange. atm switch solutions are used to serve as a link between the bank's physical channels (such as branch, pos/edc, atm, internet banking and mobile banking) with the core banking system. the solution also handles connections to third parties such as local national switch (artajasa/atm bersama, alto, link, rintis/prima), international switch (visa, mastercard, amex), payment provider (pln, telkom, airline) (www.teknologibank.com, 2016). results of own research and discussions fee based income. fee based income is the income obtained from transactions provided in other bank services (kasmir, 2012). this definition explains that apart from collecting and distributing funds, banks also carry out other supporting service activities. these support services are provided to facilitate http://www.teknologibank.com/ http://www.teknologibank.com/ http://www.teknologibank.com/ economy and sociology 13 december no. 2/2020 activities to collect and distribute funds that generate fee based income from the proceeds of providing bank services. fee based income is the income other than operating income that is not shared with other parties. some examples of banking services that generate fee-based income are transfers, collections, letters of credit, safe deposit boxes, credit cards, payment points for deposit accounts, bank guarantees, foreign exchange trading, commercial paper and traveler's checks. return on asset (roa). according to fahmi (2013) roa is one of the four ratios which measures the company's performance in terms of profitability. roa measures the extent to which the company's ability to generate profits from assets used in the company. roa is used as a measure of management effectiveness in managing its investment. roa can be calculated by dividing earning after tax by total assets. network switching and the number of atms are bank assets that play a role in the company's main operations. automated teller machines contribute to the banking sector’s effectiveness. the tremendous growth and development of technological advancement has been the driving force of the market (jagede, 2014). another study regarding the relationship between electronic banking and bank performance is the one conducted by margaretha (2015), which examines the differences in the performance of banks that use electronic banking and banks that do not use electronic banking. in fact, the result shows that banks that use electronic banking have a higher return on assets. in relation to this research, those instruments which can be classified as pertaining to electronic banking are internet banking, mobile banking, phone banking, edc, atm, sms banking, videobanking (abadi, 2015). 1.research method research variable based on the issues to be discussed, then the specified variables are as follows: table 1 definition of operational variables variable name variable type definition atm (x1) independen variable the "atm" variable is the number of atm machines used by each company. the "atm" variable is measured in equipment (machine) unis. source obtained from infobank magazine january 2019 edition. netwok switching (x2) independen variable the variable "switching" is the number of bank switching networks, which banks use to perform bank operational activities through electronic means. the variable "switching" is measured in membership count. source: obtained from infobank magazine january 2019 and website every bank. non interest (y1) dependen variable the "non-interest" variable is the nominal value with the rupiah unit representing the amount of the bank's income earned from non-interest income, including the fee from the transaction for using the atm. sources are obtained from the bank's quarterly financial statements as of december 2018 from 30 selected banks. profitability (y2) dependen variable the variable "roa" represents the return of asset ratio that describes the ability of the banking company in generating return on the management of the company's assets. data from this ratio is derived from the quarterly financial statements of banks as of december 2018 from 30 selected banks, the unit of "roa" variables used in this provider is expressed in percentage, which is calculated manually. the reason for choosing roa ratio to represent bank performance is because of the profitability ratios used to measure the effectiveness of a company in generating profits by using its total assets. and atm machines and switching networks are included in fixed assets and bank inventories. source: developed by the authors based. figure 1. research framework source: developed by the authors. totalatm fee based income performance of bank total network switching atm theoretical and scientifical journal 14 december no. 2/2020 data sample the data used in this research is from the financial statements, publications of banking companies and from magazines. the method of data retrieval is by downloading quarterly financial reports per december 2018 from each bank that becomes the object, and retrieving data that has been published in the january 2019 infobank magazine (infobank, 2019). the banking company has an atm machine over 200 units of machinery that is still operating and can be used by all customers. this research uses 30 banking companies as sample. 2.data and analysis structural model test based on the normality evaluation shows that the data is feasible to be used in the structural model feasibility test on the influence of network switching and atm through fee based income to profitability which the result of structural model test is shown in table 2 as below: table 2 structural model test good of fit (gof) index cut-off value model good fit chi-square (x2) 0,157 good fit df (degree freedom) positive 2 good fit p (probabilitas) >0,05 0,924 good fit rmsea 0 0,000 good fit gfi >0,9 0,997 good fit source: developed by the authors. from the overall calculation on the measurement overall model fit and good of fit, it can be concluded that the model study made on the whole has qualified measuring and fit. after testing the structural model, the next test is the sem (structural equation modeling) testing. here are the results and output path diagram of the standardized estimates section of the research model. figure 2. path diagram output source: developed by the authors. then, after testing data normality and good of fit, the next test is structural model test. it’s to test the relationship between constructs. the test is aims to see a significant and close relationship between independent and dependent variables. here is the result. table 2 result of hypothesis test hypothesis path p result of probability estimate h1 atm → fee based 0,867 rejected 0,028 h2 switching →fee based 0,006 accepted 0,453 h3 fee based → roa 0,477 rejected 0,131 source: developed by the authors based. economy and sociology 15 december no. 2/2020 from the table above, it can be concluded that, the first hypothesis on the test results is the result that h1 hypothesis is rejected. respectively, there is no relationship/influence between variable "atm" with variable "fee based", with probability is 0,867 above 0,05 and number of closeness 0,028 under 0,5. and then the second hypothesis on the test results is that h2 is accepted. this means that there is a relationship between the "switching" variable and the "fee based" variable in which the probability is 0.006 below 0.05 and the closeness is 0.453 below 0.5. and the last hypothesis, show h3 is also rejected. this means that there is no relationship between the "fee based" variable with the "roa" variable in which the number of probability is 0.477 above 0.05 and the closeness is 0.131 below 0.5. according to the results of this test, it can be concluded that the number of atm machines used by a bank to support bank operations to facilitate transactions done by customers does not guarantee an increase in bank non-interest income. the number of atm machines does not contribute to an increase in non-interest income at banking companies. this can be due to the fact that there are many other means that can be used for transactions, for example edc machines, internet banking, mobile banking, and others. customers are thought to prefer banking transactions using online facilities rather than atms. this research is in line with the research of jagede (2014) which states that although atm is the driving force of fee-based income, it is the number of transactions that directly contributes to the amount of fee-based income. conclusion and recommendations based on test results and analysis results the conclusion of the research is, first, the number of atm machines not affect to the bank's fee based income. second, the amount of switching network membership used affects the bank's fee-based income. then third, the bank’s fee based income also does not affect to the performance of the bank. this research has answered the formulation of the problems that have been enunciated before. further research can be directed to deep dive into the switching network factor, which is the aspect that shapes a bank's fee-based income, and also examines the size of a bank's assets which of course will affect the size of the switching network that it owns. references 1. abadi, r. mengenal mobile banking, apa keunggulan dan kekurangannya? 2015, 25 desember [citat 10 august 2019]. disponibil: https://www.cermati.com/artikel/mengenal-mobile-bankingapa-keunggulan-dan-kekurangannya 2. bank indonesia. siaran pers: kembangkan interkoneksi dan interoperabilitas sistem pembayaran dengan national payment gateway (npg): siaran pers, 21 desember 2019. jakarta, 2016 [citat 12 februarie 2017]. disponibil: <http://www.bi.go.id/id/ruang-media/siaranpers/pages/sp_1810516.aspx> 3. fahmi, i. analisis laporan keuangan. cetakan ketiga. bandung: alfabeta, 2013. 4. hamzah, a. penyelarasan strategi bisnis dan strategi sistem/teknologi informasi untuk peningkatan kinerja organisasi. in: proceeding seminar nasional aplikasi teknologi informasi (snati 2007). yogyakarta, 2007. pp 1-4. issn 1907-5022. 5. hoggson, n.f. banking through the ages. new york: dodd, mead & company, 1926. 128 p. 6. infobank. data jumlah atm bank di indonesia. jakarta, 2019, january. 7. jegede, c.a. effects of automated teller machine on the performance of nigerian banks. in: american journal of applied mathematics and statistics. 2014, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 40-46. issn 23287306 [citat 27 martie 2020]. disponibil: http://article.sciappliedmathematics.com/pdf/ajams-21-7.pdf doi:10.12691/ajams-2 -1 -7. 8. kasmir. bank dan lembaga keuangan lainnya. jakarta: pt. raja grafindo persada, 2012. isbn 978-979-769-413-5. 9. farah, m. dampak electronic bankingterhadap kinerja perbankan indonesia. in: jurnal keuangan dan perbankan. 2015, vol. 19, no. 3, september, pp. 514-524. issn 1410-8089. 10. siamat, d. manajemen lembaga keuangan: kebijakan moneter dn perbankan. edisi kelima. fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia. jakarta, 2005. 750 p. isbn 979-9242-0. 11. teknologibank. apa-itu-digital-banking. jakarta, 2016, 13 may [citat 09 february 2020]. disponibil: <http://teknologibank.com/detailpost/apa-itu-digital-banking> article history received 15 july 2020 accepted 18 november 2020 economy and sociology 79 no. 1/ 2019 performance management – a basic instrument for sustainable development of pomiculture ludmila dobrovolschi 1, university lector, state agrarian university of moldova fruit growing has become an area of great interest for economic agents. recently, it has been more difficult for the businesses to enter the market, which requires differentiation in management activity. in this sense, formulating the role of performance management in terms of consumer behaviour becomes a trampoline for effective management actions. in the scientific literature, it is given a minor attention, as evidenced by the low degree of research in the field of efficient management and of the sustainable development of fruit growing. under these circumstances, the need to study the performance management as a basic tool in the sustainable development of fruit growing of the republic of moldova is more than adequate. thus, the main objective of this article is the conceptual approach of advanced management – as a basic tool in the sustainable development of fruit growing. the informative basis of the investigation consisted of the consulted bibliographic sources, on the basis of which the author presented his own visions. the main research methods used were: monographic method, analysis, scientific observation, comparison, induction, deduction, explanation and interpretation. the obtained results highlighted: defining the notion of performance management, identifying its characteristics, specific functions and basic levers; value chain determination methodology and the impact of the developed value chain on the process of identifying export markets for moldovan fruit. keywords: management, performance management, performance, sustainable development, horticulture, enterprise, market, efficiency, effectiveness, competitiveness, functions, value chain, investments. pomicultura a devenit un domeniu de activitate de mare interes pentru agenții economici. în ultimul timp, întreprinderilor le este mai dificil să abordeze piața, fapt care impune diferențierea activității de management. în acest sens, formularea rolului managementului performant în funcție de comportamentul consumatorilor devine drept trambulină pentru acțiunile eficiente de management. în literatura științifică, managementului performant îi este acordată o atenție minoră, ceea ce este demonstrat de gradul redus al cercetărilor din domeniul managementului performant – dezvoltării durabile a pomiculturii. în aceste condiţii, necesitatea studierii managementului performant, ca instrument de bază în dezvoltarea durabilă a pomiculturii republicii moldova, este mai mult decât oportună. astfel, obiectivul principal al prezentului articol constă în abordarea conceptuală a managementului performant ca instrument de bază în dezvoltarea durabilă a pomiculturii. baza informativă a investigaţiei sunt sursele bibliografice consultate, conform cărora autorul şi-a expus viziunile proprii. principalele metode de cercetare utilizate au fost: metoda monografică, analiza, observarea științifică, comparaţia, inducția, deducția, explicarea şi interpretarea. rezultatele obţinute evidenţiază: definirea noțiunii de management performant, identificarea caracteristicilor, funcţiilor specifice şi pârghiilor de bază ale acestuia; metodologia de determinare a lanțului valoric prin prisma costurilor şi impactul lanțului valoric dezvoltat asupra procesului de identificare a piețelor de export pentru fructele moldoveneşti. cuvinte-cheie: management, management performant, performanţă, dezvoltare durabilă, pomicultură, întreprindere, piaţă, eficienţă, eficacitate, competitivitate, funcţii, risc, lanț valoric, investiții. плодоводство стало областью большого интереса для экономических агентов, в то же время предприятия испытывают определенные сложнности при выходе на рынок, что требует дифференциации в управленческой деятельности. в этом смысле формулирование роли управления эффективностью с точки зрения поведения потребителей становится трамплином для эффективных управленческих действий. в научной литературе этой проблеме уделяется незначительное внимание, о чем свидетельствует низкая степень исследований в области эффективного управления, устойчивого развития плодоводства. в этих условиях необходимость 1 © ludmila dobrovolschi, liuda.dob@mail.ru theoretical and scientifical journal 80 no. 1 / 2019 изучения управления эффективностью как основного инструмента устойчивого развития плодоводства в республике молдова являетсяпредставляет особую актуальность. основной целью данной статьи является концептуальный анализ передового менеджмента как основного инструмента устойчивого развития плодоводства. информационную основу исследования составили библиографические источники, на основании которых автор представил свои собственные взгляды. основные методы исследования: монографический метод, анализ, научное наблюдение, сравнение, индукция, дедукция, объяснение и интерпретация. основныерезультаты исследования: определение понятия управления эффективностью, определение характеристик, конкретных функций и основных рычагов; методология цепочки создания стоимости и её влияния на процесс определения экспортных рынков для молдавских фруктов. ключевые слова: управление, управление эффективностью, производительность, устойчивое развитие, садоводство, предприятия, рынок, эффективность, эффективность, конкурентоспособность, функции, риск, цепочка создания стоимости, инвестиции. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-06 jel classification: a10, d22, m11, m21 udc: 005:634 introduction. in the conditions of increasing complexity and dynamics of the socio-economic phenomena, management acquires new valences and has a major role in achieving efficiency, in the development and modernization of the economy, for the material and spiritual progress of the individual and society. this means that the major problems faced today and in the foreseeable future by the moldovan enterprises (the necessity of ensuring and accelerating the economic growth, the economic crisis, the pollution, the reduction of the poverty level in the society, etc.) are likely to be solved only in case the management at the level of the organizations proves to be effective and efficient in capitalizing on the used resources and maximizing the contribution of these organizations to the development of the society as a whole. managerial concerns have intensified and amplified with the development of human society, leading to a leadership and organization activity with superior structural and functional characteristics [12, p.14]. in the republic of moldova in the last decades the fruit growing branch has been one of the main pillars of the national agriculture, determining to a large extent the efficiency of the agricultural sector as a whole. the fruit growing branch generates a considerable share of income in horticultural production, being at the same time the essential source of income for a great part of the country's population and the core activity of the majority of the 323,000 people employed in agriculture. the republic of moldova is in the immediate neighbourhood with two of the largest markets for fruit products – the european union and the commonwealth of independent states (cis). despite this, the potential of this branch is being exploited inefficiently due to the limited absorption capacity of the local market, the reduced competitiveness of the products on the markets, as well as the barriers imposed by the russian federation on the import of fruit products. under these circumstances, the sustainable development of fruit growing essentially depends on the quality of management at the branch level, which would focus on researching all the possibilities that can be applied to make the most of the trading capacity of these markets and beyond. the pertinent approach to the issue of high performance management as a basic tool for the sustainable development of the republic of moldova implies the increase of the efficiency at branch level, which will increase the competitiveness of the domestic fruit products, having a positive impact on the increase of the sale degree and facilitating the efficient utilization of their potential. as there exist the opportunities of moldova's association with the european union and the changes in the trade regime of key partners, the sustainable and competitive development of the fruit-growing branch based on a high-performance management would be of interest to science and practice. data sources and methods used. the scientific research methods applied in the present paper have served to deepen the study and knowledge of the field of performance management in the sustainable development of fruit growing. the main research methods were: monographic method, analysis, synthesis, scientific observation, comparison, induction, deduction, explanation and interpretation, table method. qualitative and quantitative research has been used to collect primary economy and sociology 81 no. 1/ 2019 data about the real state of fruit growing using direct research tools such as focus group, survey, indepth interviews, brainstorming, and discussion. the primary data collected in the research project "sustainable development of the horticultural sector in the context of the economic security of the republic of moldova", no. 65p, cipher 15.858.06.02a served as the data sources necessary for the fruit value chain formation. results of own research. recently, in the specialty literature a new vision of management has emerged, namely "performance management", which, according to the author, implies an evolutionary-superior phase of management. the author has not identified any definition of performance management, but there are enough approaches to the concept of "performance management," which is a new concept in the human resources management (hrd). in this context, the author defines the performance management as follows: "performance management represents all the actions undertaken by managers in order to ensure lasting success in the activity of the organizations, based on the application of modern methods, managerial techniques and information technologies, in order to improve the managerial performance and economic performance of the organization”. the main features of the performance management identified by the author (survival, results and effectiveness, productivity, efficiency, practical decision-making, competitiveness) allow us to conclude that these characteristics are interdependent, complementing each other and all of them form the conceptual framework of performance management. in order to make the management more efficient, managers should apply the general management functions in practice, and these are supplemented, in the author's view, with four other important functions. figure 1. performance management functions source: systematized and adapted by the author based on the source [79, p.25]. we consider that the analysis of the activity environment is a welcome and necessary function of the performance management. thanks to this function, the organization could better: determine the future evolution of economic and social phenomena; identify and manage all the opportunities and risks, the strengths and weaknesses, which would help to know competitors and to develop the objectives to be predicted in the near and distant future. achieving this function with great care will condition the performance of the organization in all its areas of activity. managers, recognizing and practicing this monitoring planning motivation organization risk assessment function analysis of the activity environment performance measurement control theoretical and scientifical journal 82 no. 1 / 2019 function with great skill, would have much greater chances of success in achieving the goals with higher performances and for a longer period of time. the function of the possible risk assessment is a necessary function of the performance management that implies risk identification through the activity environment analysis. according to the author, this function must include the following actions: adopting decisions to assess the identified risky situation; determining of the expenses necessary for the identified risk assessment and the adoption of the final decision: to accept the risk; to avoid the risk; to transfer the risk; determining of the consequences of the identified risk and its severity by activity domains; quantification of the consequences (based on quantitative and/or qualitative methods), also taking into account certain limits of variability (size of admissible risk); determining the responsibilities and ways to minimize or eliminate the risk; applying the necessary measures to eliminate the causes of risk, minimize or liquidate the risk; developing a plan of actions and measures to prevent, combat, reduce and avoid risks. organization, as a function of the executive management, has a diversity of opinions regarding its definition. one of the definitions belongs to the local scholars burlacu n., cojocaru v., who mention that "the organizational function consists in creating the formal structure of the organization, the selection of the necessary staff to carry out the decisions adopted at the planning stage” [13, p.176]. the motivation function involves attracting staff to achieve the organization's goals. without participation of the labour force, the achievement of the predetermined objectives is practically impossible, and the action of the managers in the application of the motivation function consists in attracting the staff so that the organization could function normally and achieve superior economic performance. monitoring, in the author's opinion, is defined as "all activities of surveillance, careful follow-up of activities at any level, at any organizational component in order to know and understand at any time the tendencies of carrying out the activities foreseen in the plans and programs ". monitoring should be done on a daily basis in the full course of activities and can be done through selective discussions with the personnel involved in the various activities, by recording the results and the problems that have arisen, by observing the planned activities step-by-step. control requires permanent and complete verification of how different activities are carried out in relation to fixed programs, highlighting deviations and taking corrective measures [35, p.122]. from this definition and other definitions presented in the literature, we can assume that the exercise of the control function for a performance management must be performed in relation to the activities specific to the fulfilment of the other functions described above. performance measurement, in the author's opinion, is a specific performance management function that should focus on identifying, monitoring, and communicating results by using performance indicators. performance measurement should be more complex in evaluating results, while performance management involves decision-making based on measurement results to achieve the desired performance. performance indicators are core assessment tools, communicating important issues related to the definition and achievement of the objectives. we believe that in order to achieve an efficient management and to ensure the long-lasting success of organizations, managers should apply all these functions. along with the functions we have determined that the main levers of the performance management that influence sustainable development are as follows: figure 5. the main levers of performance management that influence sustainable development source: elaborated by the author. investments subsidies value chain economy and sociology 83 no. 1/ 2019 investments, as one of the main levers of performance management, contribute to the sustainable development in all sectors, branches and sub-sectors of the national economy. promoting investments in order to solve the problems of upgrading and modernizing the enterprises from different sectors of activity, implementing the achievements of the technical and scientific progress, increasing production and quality, increasing the economic efficiency and the competitive advantage, ensuring a higher level of employment, and so on, demonstrates their important role in ensuring sustainable development in all areas and sectors of activity. subsidies are another lever of performance management, which, as we consider, stimulates the sustainable business development in rural areas; subsidies aim to promote economic growth and reduce poverty. subsidization is an absolutely necessary aid for the sustainable development of agriculture and also a mean of attracting investments in this field. the implementation of the subsidy policy, as well as the on-going review and improvement of the existing subsidy system in agriculture, is in the permanent state's focus. however, we consider it necessary for the state to focus on a series of support measures designed to increase investment in high performing agricultural activities and to limit the phenomenon of unfair competition between producers [6, p.230-231]. the value chain, whose model was first developed by michel porter, is another important lever of the performance management. by applying this lever, managers can better understand how added value can be enhanced by a branch, sub-branch or even an enterprise. the correct application and development of the value chain allows the identification of competitive advantage sources, as well as the opportunities for reviewing and designing strategies and activities, both at the enterprise level and at the sector, branch, sub-sector level. the results provided by the application of this lever significantly contribute to ensuring the competitiveness and sustainable development of a sector, branch, sub-sectors, and enterprise. the model of the developed value chain is the analysis of the peculiarities between the types of activities within an enterprise. applying the value chain model, recommended by the author, will allow the identification of sustainable development opportunities for fruit growers. the determination of the value chain developed for certain fruit products has been done in terms of cost, for different clusters, depending on the current market and the potential export markets in the future. tables 1-3 present the value chain model developed for the following domestic fruit products: apples, nuts, raspberries. table 1 value chain and added value for apples in the republic of moldova indicators markets russia romania egypt india moldova field price (incl. harvesting) excluding vat, euro / kg 0,179 0,196 0,113 0,117 0,198 field price including vat, euro / kg 0,195 0,213 0,123 0,127 0,215 supermarket entry price, euro / kg 0,947 0,647 0,995 1,131 0,565 supermarket price (retail), euro/kg 1,262 1,078 1,421 1,616 0,706 source: elaborated by the author based on the primary data collected within the research project "sustainable development of the horticultural sector in the context of the economic security of the republic of moldova", no. 65p, cipher 15.858.06.02a and the sources [13, 14]. thus, according to table 1, it was determined that for the domestic apples the traditional export market is the russian federation, where the more developed is the storage and sorting infrastructure the more advantageous is the apples price. the major impediment to ensuring the competitiveness of domestic fruit is that the customs regime for the fruit export from the republic of moldova provides for the levying of customs duties, which are influenced by the trading period, which substantially increases the moldovan fruits that become non-competitive on the given market. at the same time, some alternative markets for diversification of apple trade, e.g. egypt and india, have been identified, where year-on-year consumption has a fast-growing trend, as they are countries with demographic growth, affordable costs, and fast rhythm of growth. the added value for theoretical and scientifical journal 84 no. 1 / 2019 these markets is much more advantageous provided that transport logistics is properly organized (fruits must be able to keep for 60 days: transport and supermarket shelves life) and fruits trading. the value chain developed for nuts for different clusters, depending on the current market and future export potential, is presented in table 2. table 2 determination of value chain and added value for nuts from moldova, euro indicators markets middle east eu moldova field price (including harvesting cost) excluding vat, euro / kg 4,248 3,760 4,417 field price including vat, euro/kg 4,617 4,087 4,801 export price excluding vat, euro/kg 5,470 4,979 supermarket entry price, euro/kg 6,405 5,697 6,242 supermarket price (retail), euro/kg 10,675 11,394 8,918 source: elaborated by the author based on the primary data collected within the research project "sustainable development of the horticultural sector in the context of the economic security of the republic of moldova", no. 65p, cipher 15.858.06.02a and the sources [13, 14]. analysing the table data, we can see that nut marketing is much more advantageous and this is explained by increased interest in international markets and walnut kernel deficit. as to the walnuts, the traditional export market is the eu, but they are also steadily exported to the middle east countries. the eu market will remain a basic customer, but other asian markets will not be neglected to diversify trade and create added value to nuts marketing. table 3 reflects the developed value chain, determined for native raspberries, for different clusters depending on the current market and future export potential. table 3 determination of the value chain and added value for raspberries from the republic of moldova, euro indicators markets russia eu moldova field price (including harvesting cost) excluding vat, euro / kg 1,226 1,188 1,024 field price including vat, euro/kg 1,333 1,292 1,113 export price excluding vat, euro/kg 1,592 1,553 supermarket entry price, euro/kg 2,187 1,974 1,427 supermarket price (retail), euro/kg 3,125 3,290 1,783 source: elaborated by the author based on the primary data collected within the research project "sustainable development of the horticultural sector in the context of the economic security of the republic of moldova", no. 65p, cipher 15.858.06.02a and the sources [13, 14]. analysing the data of table 3, we can conclude that the republic of moldova has an unexplored potential in the raspberry industry, the intermediaries have to develop and diversify the trade, especially for export, to create opportunities for raspberry producers to develop their production capacities and to modernize technologies. we notice that the strategic markets for raspberries exports will be the eu and the cis (especially the russian federation). conclusions as a result of the study, we recognize that today's performance management, through its basic features, functions and levers, has become a complex practice that is increasingly difficult to master. but when management is an efficient one, the organization, employees, customers, society, and the country thrive, while poor management makes the same organizations suffer directly or indirectly. only a management (performance or non-performance) can affect successes or failures for so many people over a long period of time. economy and sociology 85 no. 1/ 2019 fruit growers need to understand that an important factor in value chain and added value development is the first segment of the value chain, where the fruit producer is the raw material, which is the most vulnerable segment where the lowest prices are recorded (depending on the field price, which is low in the mass harvesting period and the quality of production is rapidly deteriorating) and it is necessary to facilitate and assist producers to invest and create cold stores individually or through co-operation. in this context, we recommend to the fruit growers to apply the proposed value chain development model in order to identify and diversify the markets for fruit exports. references 1. burdus, eugen. management. studii de caz, exerciţii, probleme, teste, grile de evaluare. bucureşti: ed. economica, 2005. 254 p. isbn 973-709-161-2. 2. burdus, eugen, caprarescu, gheorghiţă. fundamentele managementului organizaţiei. bucureşti: ed. economică, 1999. 512 p. isbn 973-590-209-5. 3. burlacu, natalia, cojocaru, vadim. management. chişinău: ed. asem, 1999. 379 p. isbn 9975-75-044-3. 4. cuşnir, nicolae. creşterea competitivităţii întreprinderii prin implementarea managementului performant: (în baza materialelor industriei uşoare din republica moldova): teză de doctor. chişinău: utm, 2010. 135 p. 5. gavrila, tatiana, lefter, viorel. managementul organizaţional. bucureşti: ed. economica, 2007. 381 p. isbn 978-973-709-333-2. 6. litvin, aurelia, dobrovolschi, ludmila. subvenţionarea – ca modalitate de susţinere şi promovare a antreprenoriatului rural în republica moldova. chişinău, 2013. 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[accesat 10.11.2018]. disponibil: http://agrofarm.md:800/sites/default/files/studiu_lant_valoric_fructe_2009.pdf 14. zbanca, andrei. problemele noastre reprezintă oportunităţile noastre. analiza lanţului valoric al strugurilor de masă. [accesat 10.11.2018]. disponibil: https://eastfruit.com/storage/conference_materials/pdf/38/5bf3e33bdc3e2.pdf recommended for publication: 20.06.2019 http://dspace.uasm.md/bitstream/handle/123456789/550/227-231.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y http://dspace.uasm.md/bitstream/handle/123456789/550/227-231.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y http://agrofarm.md:800/sites/default/files/studiu_lant_valoric_fructe_2009.pdf https://east-fruit.com/storage/conference_materials/pdf/38/5bf3e33bdc3e2.pdf https://east-fruit.com/storage/conference_materials/pdf/38/5bf3e33bdc3e2.pdf theoretical and scientifical journal 86 no. 1 / 2019 sociology economy and sociology 21 no. 1 / 2020 performance determinants of the insurance company’s activity ionut lom1, phd student, state university of moldova lilian marin2, phd student, academy of economic studies of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-02 jel classification: g20, g22 udc: 368 abstract considering the growing role of the insurance protection function in a dynamic business environment, the issue of efficient management and solvency of insurance companies is becoming a priority. the purpose of this study is to identify the performance determinants of the insurance business. to achieve this goal, the authors researched methodological aspects of assessing the financial performance of the insurance company in terms of absolute and relative indicators of financial results. the authors consider that profit and profitability indicators are important to give a quantitative and qualitative assessment to the financial management of companies. the monographic method and the causal explanation were applied to concretize the model for forming the overall financial result of the insurance company. the methodological approach in order to test the hypothesis was made by adapting the factorial model for analysing the profitability of sales revenues to the specifics of the insurance company's activity. profit and profitability indicators play an important role in the process of qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the company's financial management. the analyses performed by the authors based on the public financial statements of the insurance company "acord grup" sa, the reports of the national financial market commission (ncfm) and the reports of the romanian financial supervisory authority (fsa) highlighted the decreasing trend of profitability indicators of insurance companies. in order to react as quickly as possible and manage the given situation, the authors recommend to the managers of the insurance companies to apply the factorial analysis models, in order to capture the determinants of the profitability indicators of the insurance activity, which require an increased attention. keywords: insurance, profit, profitability, performance, factorial model, insurance portfolio. având în vedere rolul crescând al funcției de protecție a asigurărilor într-un mediu de afaceri dinamic, problema gestionării eficiente și solvabilității societăților de asigurare devine o prioritate. scopul acestui studiu constă în identificarea factorilor determinanți ai performanței activității de asigurări. pentru realizarea acestui scop autorii au cercetat aspectele metodologice ale evaluării performanței financiare a societății de asigurări prin prisma indicatorilor absoluți și relativi ai rezultatelor financiare. autorii consideră că indicatorii de profit și rentabilitate sunt importanți pentru a da o apreciere cantitativă și calitativă gestiunii financiare a societăților. metoda monografică și explicația cauzală au fost aplicate pentru concretizarea modelului de formare a rezultatului financiar global al societății de asigurări. demersul metodologic în vederea testării ipotezei s-a realizat prin adaptarea modelului factorial de analiză a rentabilității veniturilor din vânzări la specificul activității societății de asigurări. indicatorilor de profit și rentabilitate le revine un rol important în procesul de evaluare calitativă și cantitativă a gestiunii financiare a companiei. analizele efectuate de autori în baza situațiilor financiare publice ale societății de asigurări „acord grup” s.a., a rapoartelor comisiei naționale a pieței financiare (cnpf) și a rapoartelor autorității de supraveghere financiară din românia (asf) au scos în evidență tendința de descreștere a indicatorilor de profitabilitate a societăților de asigurări. pentru a reacționa cât mai promt și gestiona situația dată, autorii recomandă managerilor societăților de asigurări să aplice modele de analiză factorială, pentru a surprinde factorii determinanți ai indicatorilor de rentabilitate ai activității de asigurare, care necesită o atenție sporită. cuvinte-cheie: asigurări, profit, rentabilitate, performanță, model factorial, portofoliu de asigurări. 1 @ ionuț lom, lom.ionut@incas.ro 2 @lilian marin, marinlilian8@gmail.com theoretical and scientifical journal 22 no. 1 / 2020 учитывая растущую роль функции страховой защиты в динамичной бизнес-среде, проблема эффективного управления и платежеспособности страховых компаний становится приоритетной. целью данного исследования является выявление факторов, определяющих эффективность страхового бизнеса. для достижения этой цели авторы исследовали методологические аспекты оценки финансовых показателей страховой компании по абсолютным и относительным показателям финансовых результатов. показатели прибыли и рентабельности важны для количественной и качественной оценки финансового менеджмента компаний. монографический метод и причинно-следственная связь были применены для конкретизации модели формирования общего финансового результата страховой компании. для проверки гипотезы факторная модель анализа доходности выручки от продаж была адаптирована к специфике деятельности страховой компании. аналитические данные по компаниям и по отрасли были обработаны с использованием сравнительного анализа, табличного и графического метода. показатели прибыли и рентабельности важны для количественной и качественной оценки финансового менеджмента компаний. анализ, выполненный авторами на основе публичной финансовой отчетности страховой компании "acord grup" sa, а также отчетов национальной комиссии по финансовому рынку и органом по финансовому надзору румынии (fsa) выявил тенденцию к снижению показателей эффективности страховых компаний. чтобы вовремя реагировать и управлять ситуацией, авторы рекомендуют менеджерам страховых компаний применять модель факторного анализа, чтобы охватить факторы, определяющие показатели эффективности страховой деятельности компании, которые требуют особого внимания. ключевые слова: страхование, прибыль, рентабельность, эффективность, факторная модель, страховой портфель. introduction insurance is considered one of the most important components of the financial market, thus contributing towards the increasing of the efficiency of all areas of activity. the current conditions of economic development and society determine special conditions with regard to the financial stability of insurance companies as a strategic factor in the economic security of social reproduction, increasing business activity and improving the investment climate. figure 1. dynamics of the number of insurance companies in rm and romania, 2000-2019 source: elaborated by authors based on the reports of the national commission for financial markets of the republic of moldova and of the romanian financial supervisory authority [1] https://asfromania.ro/publicatii/rapoarte-anuale/rapoarte-asf https://www.cnpf.md/ro/rapoarte-anuale-6315.html 45 44 49 43 38 32 33 33 28 24 24 20 18 16 15 15 16 16 14 14 73 47 48 44 45 43 41 42 43 45 43 41 41 38 36 35 31 31 29 28 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 republic of moldova romania https://asfromania.ro/publicatii/rapoarte-anuale/rapoarte-asf https://www.cnpf.md/ro/rapoarte-anuale-6315.html economy and sociology 23 no. 1 / 2020 recently, we are witnessing an involution of the insurance market in the republic of moldova, given that the management of companies has made changes in their development strategy. for example, aliance insurance grup jsc and asito jsc together with other companies went through reorganizations, which resulted in the restructuring of business processes, changes in shareholding and the name of the company, but failed to overcome the financial difficulties. therefore, in 2018, the ncfm withdrew the activity licenses of these two companies. we are witnessing a shrinking of the insurance market in the last two decades. both in the republic of moldova and in romania the number of insurance companies decreased significantly (figure 1). such a conclusion also results from the dynamics of the main performance indicators specific to the insurance field: the insurance degree of penetration and density. if the insurance density registered a modest increase, then the downward dynamics of the degree of penetration in the last 6 years clearly reflects the involution of this field with negative macroeconomic implications (figure 2). figure 2. the evolution of the main performance indicators of the insurance field in the republic of moldova (2000-2018) source: elaborated by authors based on ncfm reports [2]. at the base of the performance indicators of the insurance field are the insurance premiums, which, viewed individually at the level of the insurance company, represent a determining factor of its performance. insurance premiums determine the level of solvency, as by collecting premiums the company supplies itself with liquidity. at the same time, insurance premiums represent a factor that influences the size and quality of performance indicators (profit or loss). in the context of the above mentioned, the research hypothesis was formulated: the financial performance of the insurance company depends on the size of the premiums collected from the insurance contracts and the compensation expenses. this problem’ solving requires an appropriate methodological approach for the financial performance indicators, which ensures an in-depth analysis of the profit-generating activities specific to the insurance field. literature review in the authors’ opinion, at the present stage, both the analysts and managers of the insurance companies in the republic of moldova, as well as in romania pay a great attention to solvency and liquidity indicators, considering the fact that management must be oriented towards sustainable growth, which requires a periodical monitoring of the economic and financial situation. such an audit is performed with the methodological tools of the financial analysis specific to the insurance field. in the specialized literature different methodological approaches to the financial analysis of the insurance companies’ activity are described [3, văcărel, i., bercea, f, 2006]. most often they address 36,5 44,1 63,6 80,1 105 114,8 155,9 202,4 234,5 229 256,8 282,7 306 337 338,3 345,7 388,7 406,07 427,94 0,82 0,84 1,02 1,05 1,18 1 1,25 1,36 1,34 1,36 1,27 1,22 1,24 1,2 1,08 1,01 1,03 0,96 0,8 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 insurance density, lei/inhabitant degree of penetration in gdp, % theoretical and scientifical journal 24 no. 1 / 2020 the issue of financial solvency, the sufficiency of assets that form the reserves of the insurance company. a complex analysis of the financial situation of the insurance company is recommended by the national association of insurance companies (naic). [ghinzurg a. 2006]. at the same time, to be considered rational, economic activities must generate profit. profit is perceived as a force that directs the market economy and is the raison d'être of any economic entity, being considered a gain that remunerates the basic, classic factors of production: capital, land and labour. according to the modern theory of financial management, the fundamental goal of any company is to maximize the market value. the value of the company is perceived as an indicator of future opportunities to increase its revenues. given this aspect, in the strategic vision, the profitability indicator can be considered an indicator that characterizes the degree of growth of the market value of the insurance organization. the methodological tools for assessing the market value of companies are largely based on indicators of economic profit, free cash flow and their changes. economic profit is interpreted as the added value obtained by the company's owners over the value, they could achieve from optional investment alternatives. thus, a positive economic profit reflects the value creation and the efficient use of capital. the positive net cash flow reflects the result of cash flows over a given period of time, reflecting the excess when cash inflows exceed payments. the expected cash flows, discounted at a discount rate that takes into account the risks of the organization, determine the market value of the insurance company. each of the methods of estimating the market value has its advantages and disadvantages, following which it is usually recommended to use a combination of them (for example, eva, sva and cfroi) followed by a comparative analysis of the financial results [tabără, vasiliu 2006; copeland et al. 2000]. when selecting an appropriate model for analysing the financial performance of the insurance company, their growth strategy, current status and estimates of the evolution of the business environment must be taken into account. many opinions emphasize the importance of the goal of profit maximization, but mention that it should not be an end in itself, because the insurance company participates in the redistribution of national income, not in its creation. the largest contribution to the financial result must come from the investment activity. in addition, the established insurance reserves, being temporarily free resources, are also becoming an important source of investment. the profit from the investment and financial operations must have the largest share in the total amount of the profit. the investment profit allows the insurance company to pay on time the indemnities, the extension of the activity, the reduction of the insurance tariffs, etc. [văduva 2010]. thus, the profit obtained from the investments made on account of the reserves can be used to extend the insurance liability; reducing tariffs on insurance products, and this contributes to increasing the competitiveness of the insurance company. profit as an indicator that fully expresses the efficiency of the insurance company's activities is important, but only in base of profit indicators it is impossible to give an objective assessment of success or decline in performance during that period, because the same amount of profit can be the result of different activities of the insurer. some general conclusions on profitability derived from the analysis of the financial results’ indicators expressed in absolute terms lead to the idea that the efficiency of insurance companies in the republic of moldova has a downward trend, confirmed by data on financial results in insurance presented by the ncfm [ncfm] in the quarterly and annual reports. thus, according to the cumulative profit before tax indicator in the field at the situation from the end of 2019, the sector recorded losses in the amount of 10,33 million lei. out of 14 insurance companies in the republic of moldova, 6 insurers ended the financial year with losses. in the context of the above mentioned, we consider of great actuality the approach to the issue of profitability management within insurance companies. research methodology insurers, as subjects of entrepreneurship, manage a potential of resources, whose capitalization has as main objective profit generation. we can speak of profit when the total income of the activity of a company exceeds the total expenses, the profit representing the surplus of income over the expenses made by the enterprise. profit is often used as a measure of performance or as a basis for economy and sociology 25 no. 1 / 2020 other indicators, such as profitability (activity, investment) or earnings per share. profitability reflects the company's ability to produce profit (positive result), reflecting in a synthetic form the efficiency of its entire economic activity and is one of the expression forms of economic efficiency. the financial result of the operational activity of the insurer obtained during the reporting period, expressed in profit or loss, characterizes the success or failure/unsuccess of the activity in terms of quality and quantity. the general model of the formation of the insurance company’s financial result can be represented in the following way: figure 3. the general model of formation of the insurance company’s financial result source: elaborated by authors based on the financial statements of the board of directors “donaris vienna insurance group jsc and "klassika asigurări" jsc; ”acord grup” jsc, „euroins romania asigurare-reasigurare” jsc [8; 9; 10; 11]. costs expenses with claims net change in insurance claims reserves commissions costs administratio n and marketung costs other operating costs investmen t activity costs losses from financial activity income net income from insurance premiums other revenues from insurance commission income from premiums ceded to reinsurers other operating revenues net income from investments net income from financing profit before tax expenditure/savings with profit tax anual net profit other elements of the overall result overall result of the year theoretical and scientifical journal 26 no. 1 / 2020 the above mentioned in figure 3 allow us to find that the interim financial results and the overall result (the absolute indicators of financial performance) are formed progressively, based on a "cascading succession" mechanism due to the continuous chain of operations (receipts of premiums, payments of compensations, interest receivables from securities’ investment fees, payments of commissions to brokers, etc.), that characterize the activity of the insurance company. the analysis of the financial results of the insurance company is performed based on the elements included in the profit or loss statement or the statement of the global result that summarizes the economic flows, respectively the expenses and revenues of the management period, resulting from insurance, investment, financing and other activities. if we refer to the efficiency of the financial management of the joint stock company, we consider that the managerial performance indicator of the insurance company is nevertheless the net profit, which can be presented in the following way: net result = total revenues – total expenditure (1) revenues = net income from insurance / reinsurance activities + net income / investment gains + net income / gains from financing (2) expenditure = operating / operational expenses + net financing costs (3) the formalized model (1) highlights that the positive financial result of the insurer's activities largely depends on 2 basic components: 1) net income from underwriting insurance contracts; 2) net investment income. these, in turn, determine the size of other performance indicator of the insurance company the profit before tax. the application in analytical practice of profitability indicators eliminates this disadvantage, a fact confirmed by the studies conducted by moskaleva e. [moskaleva 2013]. profitability indicators reflect the efficiency of the establishment, distribution and capitalization of the financial resources of the insurance company, i.e. the optimum of its financial result. profitability is a synthetic form of expressing economic efficiency, which reflects the ability of a company to obtain a profit or a benefit from the activity it carries out. profitability is measured by the ratio between the results (a profit indicator (gross, net, etc.) and the means (resources or capital) used to obtain them [nbs]. in the process of analysing the efficiency indicators, it is necessary to determine correctly from a methodological point of view the total amount of income and expenses realized from the insurance, investment and other activities. thus, moskaleva e. highlights the role of profitability indicators viewed through the prism of their analysis by stakeholders [moskaleva 2013]:  a high level of profitability contributes to increasing the financial stability of the insurance company (the risks associated with the possible non-fulfilment of obligations to pay damages are reduced); the company is able to face a fierce competition in the insurance market;  profitability is of particular importance for owners (shareholders), because, when it increases, the interest for investments in this insurance company increases, the share price increases, respectively the objective of maximizing the market value of the capital invested by them is achieved;  for entrepreneurs, a profitability indicator characterizes the attractiveness of a business in this field, showing how insurance justifies investment expectations compared to alternative areas of capital investment. in order to correspond to the rigors imposed by the financial environment, the modern financial management comes to the aid with specific management methods, tools and levers, oriented towards the achievement of the object of activity in normal conditions of profitability. normal conditions of profitability are considered when the entity obtains a sufficient gain to continue operating under normal conditions and corresponding to the degree of risk to which it is exposed. the main indicators of profitability, calculated on the basis of the data of the public financial statements of insurers, can be systematized in the following three categories: 1) indicators that characterize the efficiency of insurance activities and insurance operations; 2) indicators that characterize the efficiency of the insurer's investment activities; 3) indicators that characterize the return on invested capital (figure 4). economy and sociology 27 no. 1 / 2020 figure 4. categories of profitability indicators of insurance companies source: elaborated by authors. one solution to capture several aspects of profitability is to apply a complex indicator of profitability. an example suggested by moskaleva e. is based on an additive model (4), which reflects the results of different activities on the basis of reporting – gross insurance premiums, which allows us to estimate their contribution to the overall profitability of the insurance company of all subsystems, its functions: insurance, investment and reinsurance [moskaleva 2013]: pbs r pbs rnet pbs r k crinv asop r  . (4) where: kr – the complex / integral coefficient of the profitability of the insurance company; rop.as. – the net result of insurance operations; rnetinv – the net result of investment activity; rcr – benefits or damages related to reinsurance contracts; pbs – gross insurance premiums written during the period. one of the performance indicators of the insurance company is the return on assets (roa), calculated according to relation (5) and shows the contribution of a leu invested in assets to the formation of profit. along with the indicator "return on capital (roe)", it is considered one of the most important indicators of the activity of an insurance company, because it "...highlights the way in which managers of society use the total resources of society (financial and real) to get profit”. 100 a pnet roa , (5) where: rоa – assets rentability (return оn assets); pnet – net prоfit; a – the average annual value of the assets. the assessments of the rate of return on assets allow comparisons with other insurance companies. according to this profitability indicator, stakeholders are informed about the capacity of economic capital to ensure its renewal and remuneration as a factor. relevant assessments regarding the level of profitability rate are given by correlating their value with the existing averages in the branch or sector of activity. the average profitability of assets in the field of activity "financial and insurance activities" in 2016 was 3,9%, and in 2017 – 6,2%. in 2016, only 5 companies out of the 9 analyzed exceeded the average level of rоa in the given field of activity. in 2017, only 3 insurance companies exceeded the level of 6,2% of the return on assets. the rate of return on assets, in some situations is assessed in correlation with the evolution of the inflation rate. a rate of return on assets above the inflation rate will be able to ensure the preservation of the "economic substance" of the enterprise and even the renewal and growth of its economic assets, in the shortest possible period. an important qualitative indicator of the insurer's activity is considered the profitability of the insurance activity (6) which is of interest not only to the owners and administrators of the insurance company, but primarily to external users: consultants, financial analysts, potential investors and shareholders. external users have the opportunity to assess the profitability of the insurance company indicators of the insurance activity profitability •profitability of insurance operations •profitability of the insurance/ operating activity indicators of the investment activity profitability •return of investment •return of investment of insurance reserves indicators of the return of the advanced capital •return of assets •return of equity •profitability of permanent capital •profitability of net assets theoretical and scientifical journal 28 no. 1 / 2020 only on the basis of the public financial statements of the insurer, which they are required by law to publish, in their capacity as public interest entities, one of the indicators being profit before tax. however, considering that the profit before tax is an indicator expressed in absolute terms, the result obtained "...does not always give the possibility to objectively assess the effectiveness of the operational activity without resorting to profitability indicators." [balanuța 2010]. the interpretation of this hypothesis with reference to the insurance activity, allows us to conclude that the profitability of the insurance activity (ra) is an indicator that reflects the performance of the management team, calculated as the ratio between profit before tax and total income. ,100 vs pi r a (6) where: ra – profitability of the insurance activity, %; pi – profit before tax; vs – income from underwriting insurance contracts; pi = vs – che (operating expenses) (7) the change in dynamics of the profitability indicator of the insurance activity is important for different categories of users, because it highlights a series of factors, which influence the resultant indicator. moreover, taking into account the free access to the financial statements of companies, we can compare with other insurance companies operating in the market and their dynamic evolution. results and discussions the factor analysis can determine the influence of a number of factors. in the present study we will refer to the analysis of the profitability of the insurance company's activity through the prism of the analysis of three factors:  changing the structure of the insurance portfolio;  modification of expenses related to the insurance activity;  changing the amount of insurance rates. we will apply the factorial model (7) to analyse the profitability of the insurance activity based on the profit or loss account of the insurance company “acord grup” jsc for the period 2017-2018. the initial data are presented in table 1. table 1 initial data for the factorial analysis of the insurance activity profitability in dynamics of the insurance company „acord grup” jsc indicator conventional signs 2017 the year 2018 recalculated in the conditions of 2017 2018 income from underwriting insurance contracts, thousand lei vs 58245,19 53754,0 55769,34 operating expenses, thousand lei che 45852,92 51543,37 47571,18 profit before tax, thousand lei pi 8930,94 2210,63 10239,31 profitability of the insurance activity, % ras 15,33 4,11 18,36 source: authors' calculations based on the financial statements of the insurance company " acord grup " for the years 2017-2018. the recalculation of the indicators of 2018 in the conditions of 2017 was made based on the calculation methodology of the scientist vl. balanuță [balanuța 2010]. the following calculations were performed to determine the influencing factors: recalculated profitability of the insurance activity i (rasreci): %11,4 0,53754 27,515430,53754 100      rec recrec asreci vs chevs r economy and sociology 29 no. 1 / 2020 recalculated profitability of the insurance activity ii (rasrecii): %50,11 0,53754 47571,180,53754 1002018      rec rec asrecii vs chevs r in 2018, the profitability of the insurance activity of the insurance company “acord grup” jsc increased by 3.03 p.p. the influence of the factors stated above is as follows: changing the structure of the insurance portfolio: ..22,1133,1511,4)( 1 ppfr as  modification of the expenses related to the insurance activity: ..39,711,450,11)( 2 ppfr as  changing the amount of insurance rates: ..86,650,1136,18)( 3 ppfr as  verification: -11,2 +7,39 + 6,86 = +3,03 from the three factors stated above, we conclude that the change in the structure of the insurance portfolio mitigated the increase in the profitability of the insurance business of the insurance company "acord grup" jsc in 2018 compared to the previous year. its negative impact determined a decrease of the resultant factor by 11.22 p.p., and the other two factors had a positive influence. in order to establish the influence of other indicators on the performance indicators of this company, the authors deepened the analytical approach by determining the influence of changing the structure of the insurance portfolio on another important indicator, which determines the company's solvency – net premiums and represents the company's turnover. creating a sustainable portfolio is an important goal of the organization. the insurance portfolio characterizes the financial reliability of the company. this is a set of contracts concluded for certain amounts of insurance. in fact, it is a reflection of the company's obligations to customers. the degree of responsibility of the structure within the adopted contracts depends on its size. in order to ensure the sustainability of activities, it is reasonable to create an insurance portfolio with a large number of lowliability transactions. the payment of compensation should not affect the company's financial situation. the insurance portfolio is the main source of cash, and if the structure is poorly managed, it can cause the organization to go bankrupt. therefore, it is important to form and correctly distribute the risks and liability in contracts. however, reinsurance services are not free. it is therefore necessary to assess the economic efficiency of the transaction before it is concluded. as it results from the profit or loss account and the statement of other elements of the overall result of the insurance company “acord grup” jsc, for the financial year ended december 31, 2018 the written gross insurance premiums increased compared to the previous year by 7521,77 thousand lei. this deviation was formed under the influence of the change of the following two factors: 1) number of insurance contracts; 2) the average premium received per contract. the influence of each factor was analysed based on table 2. table 2 initial data and calculations related to the evaluation of the factors’ influence on the net premium subscribed by the insurance company “acord grup” (2017-2018) indicator actual data absolute deviation (+,-) 2017 2018 number of insurance contracts concluded 71246 81095 +9849 the average premium received per one contract, lei 797,1 798,21 +1,1 written net premiums, thousand lei 56789,92 64730,67 +7940,75 including, based on: increase in number of concluded contracts: 9849 x 797,1 +7850,65 increase in average net written premium per one contract: +1,1 x 81095 +89,21 source: authors' calculations based on the financial statements of the insurance company " acord grup " for the years 2017-2018. theoretical and scientifical journal 30 no. 1 / 2020 the calculations show that the amount of net written premiums increased only due to the growth in the number of concluded contracts, the increase being 7850 thousand lei. the amount of the average premium received practically remained at the same level, respectively did not have a significant influence on the change of the net amount of the subscribed premiums. conclusions given the conditions imposed by the competitive environment, but also by the supervisory bodies of the non-banking financial market, the insurance company must have as basic objectives the assurance of the profitability and liquidity necessary for a continuous activity. respecting these fundamental objectives, the insurance company will make enough profit to remunerate the owners and to compensate the insured if necessary. failure to meet the objectives of profitability and liquidity may condition a state of financial imbalance, insolvency and non-compensation of policyholders in case of insured risks. from the systematization of the methodological approaches for analysing the efficiency of the insurance activity, we considered that an efficient financial management requires an integrated approach to the profitability indicators, which can be achieved through factor analysis. this will allow managers to determine the causes, the influencing factors and to make managerial decisions regarding the increase of the efficiency of the activity and the financial performance of the insurance company. bibliography 1. the financial supervisory authority. annual reports [citat 14.03.2020]. disponibil: https://www.cnpf.md/ro/rapoarte-anuale-6315.html 2. national commission for financial markets. annual reports [citat 15.03.2020]. disponibil: https://www.cnpf.md/ro/rapoarte-anuale-6315.html 3. văcărel, i., bercea, f. asigurări şi reasigurări. bucureşti: editura expert, 2006. 4. ghinzurg, a.i. prikladnoj èkonomičeskij analiz. piter, 2005. 320 s. isbn 5-469-00248-9. 5. tabără, n., vasiliu, a. relevanţa indicatorilor în măsurarea performanţelor întreprinderii. in: economica. 2013, nr. 1 (83), pp. 81-93. issn 1810-9136. 6. copeland, t. e., koller, t., & murrin, j. valuation: measuring and managing the value of companies. new york: wiley, 2000. 508 p. isbn 0-471-36190-9. 7. vaduva, m. eficienţa activităţi de asigurare în românia. in: annals of the university “constantin brâncuşi” from târgu jiu. series economie. 2010, nr. 2, pp. 149-164. issn 1844-7007. 8. donaris vienna insurance group sa. raportul financiar al companiei de asigurare. 2018. 13 p. 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[citat 25.03.2020]. disponibil: https://statistica.gov.md/pageview.php?l=ro&id=2254&idc=351 ovo 14. moskaleva, e.g. metodičeskie podhody k provedeniû faktornogo analiza finansovogo rezul'tata deâtel'nosti strahovoj kompanii. in: finansy i kredit. 2013, № 40 (568). issn 2071-4688 [citat 28.03.2020]. disponibil: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/metodicheskie-podhody-k-provedeniyu-faktornogo-analizafinansovogo-rezultata-deyatelnosti-strahovoy-kompanii 15. balanuța, vladimir. analiza rentabilității veniturilor din vânzări ale întreprinderii prin prisma aportului propriu al colectivului de muncă. in: analele asem. ediția a viii-a. chișinău, 2010, pp. 310-312. isbn 9789975-75-534-4, issn 1857-1433 [citat 30.03.2020]. disponibil: https://ibn.idsi.md/sites/default/files/imag_file/51.analiza%20rentabilitatii%20veniturilor%20din%20v inzari.pdf article history received 14 may 2020 accepted 27 may 2020 https://www.cnpf.md/ro/rapoarte-anuale-6315.html https://www.cnpf.md/ro/rapoarte-anuale-6315.html http://www.donaris.md/uploadedfiles/5ccaf86d6e6ce.pdf https://klassikaasig.md/images/pdf/raportul%20anual%20al%20companiei%20pentru%20anul%202018%20.pdf https://klassikaasig.md/images/pdf/raportul%20anual%20al%20companiei%20pentru%20anul%202018%20.pdf http://acordgrup.md/app/uploads/2019/04/situatii-financiare-la-31-decembrie-2018.pdf https://www.euroins.ro/media/euroins%20%20_%20situatii%20financiare%20ifrs%202018%20_semnat.pdf https://www.euroins.ro/media/euroins%20%20_%20situatii%20financiare%20ifrs%202018%20_semnat.pdf https://statistica.gov.md/pageview.php?l=ro&id=2254&idc=351 https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/metodicheskie-podhody-k-provedeniyu-faktornogo-analiza-finansovogo-rezultata-deyatelnosti-strahovoy-kompanii https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/metodicheskie-podhody-k-provedeniyu-faktornogo-analiza-finansovogo-rezultata-deyatelnosti-strahovoy-kompanii https://ibn.idsi.md/sites/default/files/imag_file/51.analiza%20rentabilitatii%20veniturilor%20din%20vinzari.pdf https://ibn.idsi.md/sites/default/files/imag_file/51.analiza%20rentabilitatii%20veniturilor%20din%20vinzari.pdf theoretical and scientifical journal 108 december no. 2/2020 the impact of the covid-19 pandemic and the drought on the prices of the main agricultural products of animal origin in romania daniela nicoleta badan (voicila)1, phd student, research institute for agriculture economy and rural development (iceadr), bucharest, romania ionut laurentiu petre2, phd student, research institute for agriculture economy and rural development (iceadr), bucharest, romania doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-09 jel classification: io, i12, q1, q11, q13, q15 udc: 338.5:637(498) abstract globally, the pandemic installed by the coronavirus has led to a change in the way business is conducted. in the context of the economic crisis knocking on the door, the states of the world are trying to take the most severe measures to mitigate the effects of this epidemic. one sector of the economy that needs to be protected is agriculture, because it provides the much -needed food for everyone. the role of farmers is very important in this equation, as they provide the necessary food stabilizing stocks of food that can be depleted faster. in this paper we want to determine the possible impact that the drought and the overlap of the covid pandemic on it may have on the prices of agricultural products of animal origin in romania. in this context, the level of prices in the first half of the previous year was compared with the level of prices in the first half of the current year, in order to be able to determine, from a statistical point of view, whether there are significant differences. it was found that for five of the six products analyzed, the prices in the first half of 2020 were higher than in the first half of 2019. following this analysis, the correlation coefficients between the price level and the precipitation level were determined, and subsequently between the price level and the market demand, the latter influenced by the pandemic. it was found that both phenomena indirectly influenced the prices of agricultural products of animal origin. keywords: animal products, prices, covid pandemic, drought, romania. la nivel global, pandemia instalată de coronavirus a condus la o schimbare a modului în care se desfășoară activitatea. în contextul crizei economice, care bate la ușă, statele lumii încearcă să ia cele mai severe măsuri pentru a atenua efectele acestei epidemii. un sector al economiei care trebuie protejat este agricultura, deoarece oferă hrana atât de necesară pentru toată lumea. rolul fermierilor este foarte important în această ecuație, deoarece aceștia asigură stocurile necesare de stabil izare a alimentelor care pot fi epuizate mai repede. în această lucrare dorim să stabilim impactul posibil pe care îl poate avea seceta și suprapunerea pandemiei covid asupra prețurilor produselor agricole de origine animală din românia. în acest context, nivelul prețurilor din prima jumătate a anului precedent a fost comparat cu nivelul prețurilor din prima jumătate a anului curent, pentru a putea determina, din punct de vedere statistic, dacă există diferențe semnificative. s -a constatat că pentru cinci din cele șase produse analizate, prețurile din prima jumătate a anului 2020 au fost mai mari decât în prima jumătate a anului 2019. în urma acestei analize, s-au determinat coeficienții de corelație dintre nivelul prețului și nivelul de precipitații, iar ulterior între nivelul prețurilor și cererea pieței, aceasta din urmă influențată de pandemie. s-a constatat că ambele fenomene au influențat indirect prețurile produselor agricole de origine animală. cuvinte-cheie: produse de origine animală, prețuri, pandemie covid, secetă, românia. 1 id orcid 0000-0003-3648-7618 e-mail: badan.daniela@iceadr.ro 2 id orcid 0000-0002-2360-6844 e-mail: petre.ionut@iceadr.ro mailto:badan.daniela@iceadr.ro mailto:0000-0002-2360-6844 mailto:petre.ionut@iceadr.ro economy and sociology 109 december no. 2/2020 в глобальном масштабе пандемия, вызванная коронавирусом, привела к изменению способов ведения бизнеса. в условиях стучащегося в дверь экономического кризиса государства мира пытаются принять самые жесткие меры для смягчения последствий этой эпидемии. одним из секторов экономики, который необходимо защитить, является сельское хозяйство, потому что оно обеспечивает столь необходимую пищу для всех. в этом уравнении очень важна роль фермеров, поскольку они обеспечивают необходимые продовольственные стабилизирующие запасы продовольствия, которые могут быть истощены быстрее. в этой статье мы хотим определить возможное влияние, которое засуха и наложение пандемии covid на нее может оказать на цены на сельскохозяйственную продукцию животного происхождения в румынии. в этом контексте уровень цен в первом полугодии предыдущего года сравнивался с уровнем цен в первом полугодии текущего года, чтобы можно было определить со статистической точки зрения, есть ли значительные различия. было установлено, что по пяти из шести проанализированных продуктов цены в первой половине 2020 года были выше, чем в первой половине 2019 года. после этого анализа были определены коэффициенты корреляции между уровнем цен и уровнем осадков, а затем между уровнем цен и рыночным спросом, на последний повлияла пандемия. выяснилось, что оба явления косвенно влияют на цены на сельскохозяйственную продукцию животного происхождения. ключевые слова: продукты животного происхождения, цены, пандемия covid, засуха, румыния. introduction an extreme drought phenomenon was registered in romania, at the beginning of the 2019 2020 agricultural year, specifically at the beginning of september 2019 which greatly affected the main vegetable crops. the drought continued in the first quarter of 2020, so, in addition to autumn crops, spring crops were also affected. an indisputable proof in this respect is the fact that, at the proposal of the ministry of agriculture and rural development, a law was drafted (emergency decree no. 148/2020) regulating compensations for the affected areas (official gazette, 2020). over this difficult period for agriculture from a climatic point of view, the onset of the covid19 epidemic in romania, which directly influenced the agri-food sector, also proved to be an overlapping cause. butu et al. (2020), who studied the impact of the covid -19 crisis on the buying behavior of fresh vegetable consumers found that the pandemic induced significant changes in the buying behavior of shoppers. in addition to these demand-related issues, it is considered that this crisis has also led to a reduction in the supply of products, given the l imitations on trade. zhang et al. (2020), who wanted to assess the potential economic cost of the covid pandemic in china for the agri-food system, found the following in his paper: the economic loss of the agri food system is equivalent to 7%, about 27% of the total workforce having lost their jobs. at the same time, the results show that the continuous reduction of economic dependence o n exports and the stimulation of domestic demand are key areas that require political support. we consider that these two phenomena have to some extent influenced the evolution of agricultural product prices, so another research question is to what extent have the pandemic and drought affected the price of agricultural products of animal origin. to this research question, there is a hypothesis based on other studies (zhang et al. 2020, anh and gan, 2020, fan and zhang, 2020), namely that these phenomena ind irectly influence the price level of agricultural products of animal origin. this hypothesis can also be supported by the findings of cao et al. (2020), which conducted an analysis of the impact of the pandemic on agricultural imports and exports from china, and the authors note that exports were negatively affected, both in the short and long term. material and method in this paper we want to analyze the price dynamics for the main agricultural products of animal origin in romania, and then determine the influence that the covid-19 pandemic may have, but also the severe drought since the beginning of the agricultural ye ar. in this sense, we will analyze statistical data taken from the national institute of statistics (ins) both quantitatively and theoretical and scientifical journal 110 december no. 2/2020 qualitatively with reference to the price of these products, making a comparative analysis of the first half of 2020 with the first half of 2019, and subsequently aspects related to drought (precipitation level) will be analyzed with the help of meteorological data provided by different weather stations, whiel at the end the consumption of these products will be analyzed as a phenomenon of pandemic. these data will be analyzed statistically using the t test, hypothesis testing and the pearson correlation coefficient. the research will analyze a series of agricultural products of animal origin that are very important in human nutrition, namely: the main varieties of meat (cattle, sheep, poultry and pigs), cow's milk and eggs. results and discussions in order to be able to determine the influence of the covid-19 pandemic and the drought on prices, a quantitative analysis of the evolution of prices for the main agricultural products of animal origin in romania must be carried out beforehand. this analysis will be performe d comparatively, respectively it will put the price of products from the first half of 2019 against the price of products from the first half of 2020. subsequently, the hypothesis will be tested according to which the price differs in 2020 compared to 2019, registering an increase, this analysis will be performed with the t test, from the data analysis package of ms excel. beef meat figure 1. dynamics of the average purchase price of beef semester 1-2019 vs semester 1-2020 source: own processing based on ins data. as can be seen from figure 1, the price of beef in the first half of 2019 is slightly increasing, on average by 0.39% per month, with very little oscillation, the coefficient of variation being a very small 1.05%, and the semester average being of 7.13 lei per kilogram. analyzing the prices recorded in the first half of 2020, we can see a difference in both evolution and level, respectively, during this period, the price of beef increased by 0.66% per month, slightly steeper, with a coefficient of variation of 1.74%, while the average price per semester was 7.83 lei per kilogram. in order to demonstrate, if this difference is statistically significant, the hypothesis will be tested using the t test, the hypothesis being that the average value of the first 6 months of 2019, differs from the average value of the first 6 months of 2020, respectively the difference between the means is different from zero. economy and sociology 111 december no. 2/2020 table 1 hypothesis testing for the price of beef 2019 2020 mean 7.133333333 7.8317 variance 0.005626667 0.0186 observations 6 6 pearson correlation 0.48201872 hypothesized mean difference 0 df 5 t stat -14.26623245 p(t<=t) one-tail 1.52452e-05 t critical one-tail 2.015048373 p(t<=t) two-tail 3.04903e-05 t critical two-tail 2.570581836 source: own calculations based on the data in figure 1 using data analysis of ms excel. table 1 shows that the absolute value of the statistical parameter t state is higher than the critical value (t critical) and the significance level p is lower than the maximum accepted threshold of 0.05, which confirms the hypothesis, respectively the difference between the averages cannot be zero, in other words there is no possibility for the averages to be the same. as previously determined, the average price in the first half of 2020 (7.83 lei/kg) is 9.8% higher than the average price in the first half of 2019. sheep meat figure 2. dynamics of the average purchase price of sheep meat semester 1-2019 vs semester 1-2020 source: own processing based on ins data. as can be seen from figure 2, the price of sheep meat in the first half of 2019, is increasing, on average, by 17.3% per month, with very high oscillation, the coefficient of variation being a very high 37.24%, and the average for the semester being 6.87 lei per kilogram. analyzing the prices recorded in the first half of 2020, we can see a difference in both evolution and level, respectively, during this period, the price of sheep meat increased by 16.72% per month, slightly slower, with a coefficient of variation of 32.97%, and the average price of the semester was 8.66 lei per live kilogram. in order to demonstrate, if this difference is statistically significant, the hypothesis will be tested using the t test, the hypothesis being that the average value of the first 6 months of 2019, differs from the average value of the first 6 months of 2020, respectively the difference between the means being different from zero. theoretical and scientifical journal 112 december no. 2/2020 table 2 testing the hypothesis for the price of sheep meat 2019 2020 mean 6.871666667 8.6667 variance 6.550536667 8.1625 observations 6 6 pearson correlation 0.952450588 hypothesized mean difference 0 df 5 t stat -4.965876286 p(t<=t) one-tail 0.002113365 t critical one-tail 2.015048373 p(t<=t) two-tail 0.00422673 t critical two-tail 2.570581836 source: own calculations based on the data in figure 1 using data analysis of ms excel. it can be seen from table 2 that the absolute value of the statistical parameter t state is higher than the critical value (t critical), and the significance level p is lower than the maximum accepted threshold of 0.05, so it may be seen that the hypothesis is confirmed, respectively the difference between the averages cannot be zero, in other words there is no possibility for the averages to be the same. as previously determined, the average price in the first half of 2020 (8.66 lei/kg) is 26.12% higher than the average price in the first half of 2019. poultry figure 3. dynamics of the average purchase price of poultry semester 1-2019 vs semester 1-2020 source: own processing based on ins data. as can be seen from figure 3, the price of poultry in the first half of 2019 is slightly increasing, on average by 1.3% per month, the coefficient of variation being low, 2.97%, and the average of the semester being of 3.67 lei per kilogram. analyzing the prices recorded in the first half of 2020, we can see a difference in both evolution and level, respectively, during this period, the price of poultry increased monthly by 2.48%, a slightly more alert pace, with a coefficient of variation of 6.81%, and the average price of the semester was 3.85 lei per live kilogram. in order to demonstrate, if this difference is statistically significant, the hypothesis will be tested using the t test, the hypothesis being that the average value of the first 6 months of 2019, differs from the average value of the first 6 months of 2020, respectively the difference between the means being different from zero. economy and sociology 113 december no. 2/2020 table 3 hypothesis testing for the price of poultry 2019 2020 mean 3.671666667 3.8533 variance 0.011896667 0.0689 observations 6 6 pearson correlation 0.381055414 hypothesized mean difference 0 df 5 t stat -1.831738757 p(t<=t) one-tail 0.063242222 t critical one-tail 2.015048373 p(t<=t) two-tail 0.126484443 t critical two-tail 2.570581836 source: own calculations based on the data in figure 1 using data analysis of ms excel. it can be seen from table 3 that the absolute value of the statistical parameter t state is lower than the critical value (t critical) and the significance level p is higher than the maximum accepted threshold of 0.05, so it cannot be estimated that the hypothesis is confirmed, respectively the difference between the means can be zero, in other words there is a possibility that the means are the same. pork figure 4. dynamics of the average purchase price of pork semester 1-2019 vs semester 1-2020 source: own processing based on ins data. as can be seen from figure 4, the price of pork in the first half of 2019 is increasing, on average, by 4.38% per month, the coefficient of variation being average, 12.2%, and the average of the semester being 5.5 lei per kilogram. analyzing the prices recorded in the first half of 2020, we can see a difference in both evolution and level, respectively, during this period, the price of pork decreased, but starting from another level, the monthly average was -3.24%, with a 5.96% coefficient of variation of and the average price for the semester of 7.09 lei per kilogram. in order to demonstrate, if this difference is statistically significant, the hypothesis will be tested using the t test, the hypothesis being that the average value of the first 6 months of 2019, differs from the average value of the first 6 months of 2020, respectively the difference between the means is different from zero. theoretical and scientifical journal 114 december no. 2/2020 table 4 testing the hypothesis for the price of pork 2019 2020 mean 5.501666667 7.0933 variance 0.450056667 0.1789 observations 6 6 pearson correlation -0.746096835 hypothesized mean difference 0 df 5 t stat -3.800656752 p(t<=t) one-tail 0.006310001 t critical one-tail 2.015048373 p(t<=t) two-tail 0.012620002 t critical two-tail 2.570581836 source: own calculations based on the data in figure 1 using data analysis of ms excel it can be seen from table 4 that the absolute value of the statistical parameter t state is higher than the critical value (t critical), and the significance level p is lower than the maximum accepted threshold of 0.05, so it can be seen that the hypothesis it is confirmed, respectively the difference between the averages cannot be zero, in other words there is no possibility for the averages to be the same. as previously determined, the average price in the first half of 2020 (7.09 lei/kg) is 28.9% higher than the average price in the first half of 2019. cow milk figure 5. dynamics of the average purchase price of cow's milk semester 1-2019 vs semester 1-2020 source: own processing based on ins data. as can be seen from figure 5, the price of cow's milk in the first half of 2019, shows a decreasing trend, on average, by 0.9% per month, the coefficient of variation being a small 2.05%, and the average of the semester being 1.34 lei per liter. analyzing the prices recorded in the first half of 2020, a similar evolution can be observed, but at a different level, respectively, during this period, the price of cow's milk decreased, but starting from another level, on average the monthly rate was -0.43%, with a 1.24% coefficient of variation the average price for the semester being 1.4 lei per liter. in order to demonstrate, if this difference is statistically significant, the hypothesis will be tested using the t test, the hypothesis being that the average value of the first 6 months of 2019, differs from the average value of the first 6 months of 2020, respectively the difference between the means is different from zero. economy and sociology 115 december no. 2/2020 table 5 testing the hypothesis for the price of cow's milk 2019 2020 mean 1.34 1.4067 variance 0.00076 0.0003 observations 6 6 pearson correlation 0.828552265 hypothesized mean difference 0 df 5 t stat -10 p(t<=t) one-tail 8.54738e-05 t critical one-tail 2.015048373 p(t<=t) two-tail 0.000170948 t critical two-tail 2.570581836 source: own calculations based on the data in figure 1 using data analysis of ms excel. it can be seen from table 5 that the absolute value of the statistical parameter t state is higher than the critical value (t critical) and the significance level p is lower than the maximum accepted threshold of 0.05, so it can be seen that the hypothesis is confirmed, respectively that the difference between the averages cannot be zero, in other words there is no possibility for the averages to be the same. as previously determined, the average price in the first half of 2020 (1.406 lei/l) is 4.97% higher than the average price in the first half of 2019. chicken eggs figure 6. dynamics of the average purchase price of chicken eggs semester 1-2019 vs semester 1-2020 source: own processing based on ins data. as can be seen from figure 6, the price of chicken eggs in the first half of 2019 shows a decreasing trend, on average, by 2.78% per month, the coefficient of variation being small, 5.85%, and the average semester price being of 0.353 lei per piece. analyzing the prices recorded in the first half of 2020, a similar evolution can be observed, but at a different level, respectively, during this period, the price of chicken eggs decreased, but starting from another level, on average the monthly rate was -2.7%, with a coefficient of variation of 6.29%, and the average price of the semester was 0.388 lei per piece. in order to demonstrate, if this difference is statistically significant, the hypothesis will be tested using the t test, the hypothesis being that the average value of the first 6 months of 2019, differs from the average value of the first 6 months of 2020, respectively the difference between the means being different from zero. theoretical and scientifical journal 116 december no. 2/2020 table 6 hypothesis testing for the price of chicken eggs 2019 2020 mean 0.353333333 0.3683 variance 0.000426667 0.0005 observations 6 6 pearson correlation 0.933441006 hypothesized mean difference 0 df 5 t stat -4.391550328 p(t<=t) one-tail 0.003538799 t critical one-tail 2.015048373 p(t<=t) two-tail 0.007077598 t critical two-tail 2.570581836 source: own calculations based on the data in figure 1 using data analysis of ms excel. it can be seen from table 6 that the absolute value of the statistical parameter t state is higher than the critical value (t critical), and the significance level p is lower than the maximum accepted threshold of 0.05, so it can be seen that the hypothesis is confirmed, respectively the difference between the averages cannot be zero, in other words there is no possibility for the averages to be the same. as previously determined, the average price in the first half of 2020 (0.388 lei/piece) is 4.25% higher than the average price in the first half of 2019. following these analyzes on the price difference between the first half of 2020 and the first half of 2019, on the main agricultural products of animal origin, it can be stated that for 5 of the 6 products analyzed the prices increased significantly in 2020, compared to the same period of last year. among the reasons it can be appreciated that the drought at the beginning of the agricultural year 2019-2020, continued with the one at the beginning of the calendar year 2020, significantly affected the crops, implicitly the animal feed. on the other hand, we consider that the covid-19 pandemic indirectly affected the price of these products, which are somewhat dependent on imports, and the reduction of trade led to higher prices. in this regard, two analyzes were performed on the two reasons stated above, thus, correlation coefficients were determined between the prices of agricultural products and the level of precipitation in the months under study. table 7 correlation of precipitation with the price of the main agricultural products of animal origin average rainfall poultry price beef meat price sheep meat price pork meat price cow milk price eggs price average rainfall 1 poultry price 0.49056 1 beef price 0.05613 0.61255 1 sheep meat price 0.34161 0.69479 0.50596 1 pork price -0.02008 0.22955 0.79809 0.26272 1 cow milk price -0.45690 0.08564 0.72107 0.04102 0.56559 1 eggs price -0.73915 -0.51408 0.14983 -0.45112 0.21952 0.72759 1 source: own calculations based on data https://www.catd.ro/ and ins using data analysis of ms excel. in table 7 it can be seen that there are only 3 links of medium and close intensity, between precipitation and the price of agricultural products (poultry, milk and eggs). there is a correlation coefficient of 0.49 between precipitation and the price of poultry, which suggests that there is a link of medium and positive intensity, contrary to the purpose of this analysis. for the other two quite strong relations, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.456 between the level of precipitation and the price of economy and sociology 117 december no. 2/2020 milk and of -0.739 between precipitation and the price of eggs. these links of medium and high intensity, inversely proportional, show that when the level of precipitation decreases the price level for these two products increases, which is very possible to have happened this agricultural year as well. in order to understand the impact that the covid-19 pandemic had on prices, but also vice versa, the consumption of milk and eggs in the months analyzed and similarly correlated with the pearson coefficient was analyzed. table 8 correlation of average monthly consumption with the price of the main agricultural products of animal origin cow milk monthly consumption price monthly consumption 1 price -0.88902 1 eggs monthly consumption price monthly consumption 1 price -0.80535 1 source: own calculations based on ins data using data analysis of ms excel. as can be seen in table 8, which determines the pearson correlation coefficients between the price of milk and eggs and their average monthly consumption, in both cases, the coefficient has a close intensity relationship, but an inverse relationship. this can be contradicted by economic theory, but in this case, given that the value of the coefficients is over 0.8, representing a close relationship, it can be seen that when the price rose due to drought, and the difficulty of trade due to the pandemic, corroborated by the fact that the income level of the population decreased during this period, the consumption of these products of animal origin decreased, given the opposite trend to increase consumption of the main staple foods; the latter have replaced much of the animal protein, given the rising price and declining income of the population. conclusions the aim of this paper was to determine the impact that the covid-19 pandemic and the drought of this agricultural year may have on the prices of the main agricultural products of animal origin. in this sense, the price levels were compared in the first half of 2019 and 2020, in order to determine the differences between them. prices were studied for the following products: the four main species of meat (cattle, sheep, poultry and pigs), cow's milk and eggs. following the analysis and testing of the hypothesis, using the t test, according to which the prices in the first half of 2020 are higher than in the first half of 2019, it was true for five of the six products analyzed, with the exception of poultry. in order to determine whether the drought at the beginning of the agricultural year 2019-2020 and at the beginning of the calendar year 2020 affected the prices of the products under analysis, the level of precipitation in both periods and correlated with the pearson correlation coefficient was taken into account. it was found that there is an indirect influence between the level of precipitation and the price of milk and eggs, in the sense that when the level of precipitation decreases, prices increase, this fact being easily explained given the plant production which is directly conditioned by meteorological factors and the share feed in the cost of obtaining milk and eggs is very high reaching almost 50%. analyzing the influence of the covid-19 pandemic on the level of prices, the level of average monthly consumption was taken into account, this being recorded by statistics only for milk and eggs. thus, performing a similar analysis, using the pearson correlation coefficient, it was found that between the price level and the demand level there is a very close relationship, however, an inversely proportional one. thus, it can be seen that although demand has decreased, the price level has increased. this strange phenomenon from the point of view of economic theory, is easy to explain given the situation we are going through. with the onset of the state of emergency, demand increased significantly, but this was only for staple and staple foods, coupled with declining household incomes and rising prices for animal products, there was a significant decline in consumption. the impact of the pandemic on the price of animal products can be identified in trade relations, which are altered by this unexpected phenomenon, so a reduction in supply on the market of these products has been noted by an increase in their price. theoretical and scientifical journal 118 december no. 2/2020 it can be concluded that both the drought and the covid-19 pandemic indirectly influenced the prices of the main agricultural products of plant origin, the drought by decreasing plant production and thus increasing the cost of feed, and the pandemic by restricting trade, leading to declining market supply. and rising prices, and this rise in prices coupled with declining revenues has led to a decline in the consumption of these products. annex a1. average precipitation level precipitation level 2019 2020 january 78.75 9.725 february 11.475 52.075 march 36.6 37.6 april 48.95 25.15 may 152.7 93.025 june 87.15 148.125 source: https://www.catd.ro/ a2. dynamics of average monthly consumption q1 19 q2 19 q1 20 milk demand 5.497 5.513 4.053 eggs demand 12.801 14.666 13.368 source: nis. references 1. anh, d.l.t., gan, c. the impact of the covid-19 lockdown on stock market performance: evidence from vietnam. in: journal of economic studies. 2020, vol. ahead-of-print, no. ahead-of-print. issn 0144-3585 [cited 21 october 2020]. available: https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-06-2020-0312 2. butu, a. et al. the impact of covid-19 crisis upon the consumer buying behavior of fresh vegetables directly from local producers. case study: the quarantined area of suceava county, romania. in: international journal of environmental research and public health. 2020, vol. 17, no. 15, p. 5485. issn 1660-4601 [cited 12 october 2020]. available: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17155485 3. cao, l. et al. impact of covid-19 on china's agricultural trade. in: china agricultural economic review. 2020, vol. ahead-of-print, no. ahead-of-print. issn 1756-137x [cited 19 october 2020]. available: https://doi.org/10.1108/caer-05-2020-0079 4. fan, s. et al. how to prevent a global food and nutrition security crisis under covid-19? in: china agricultural economic review. 2020, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 471-480. issn 1756-137x [cited 27 october 2020]. available: https://doi.org/10.1108/caer-04-2020-0065 5. zhang, s. et al. the impact of epidemics on agricultural production and forecast of covid-19. in: china agricultural economic review. 2020, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 409-425. issn 1756-137x [cited 22 october 2020]. available: https://doi.org/10.1108/caer-04-2020-0055 6. zhang, y. et al. impact of covid-19 on china's macroeconomy and agri-food system – an economy-wide multiplier model analysis. in: china agricultural economic review, 2020 vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 387-407. issn 1756-137x [cited 16 october 2020]. available: https://doi.org/10.1108/caer-04-2020-0063 7. compania de apă târgoviște dâmbovița. the precipitation level [cited 03 october 2020]. available: https://www.catd.ro/ 8. institutul național de statistică [cited 09 october 2020]. available: www.insse.ro 9. ordonanța de urgență (emergency decree): nr. 148 din 27 august 2020. in: monitorul oficial al româniei. 2020, nr. 806 [cited 24 october 2020]. available: http://legislatie.just.ro/public/detaliidocument/229703 article history received 26 june 2020 accepted 12 december 2020 https://www.catd.ro/ how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 52 june no. 1/2021 private consumption in the european union: a comparative study nicoleta onofrei, phd student 1 bucharest university of economic studies, romania doctorand, academia de studii economice din bucurești аспирант, бухарестский университет экономических исследований adina teodora paşa, phd student 2 bucharest university of economic studies, romania doctorand, academia de studii economice din bucurești аспирант, бухарестский университет экономических исследований doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-05 jel classification: d10, e21, e25, z13. czu: 330.567.28(4) abstract the aim of this paper is to study consumption of households from an economic and cultural perspective in the european union with 28 member states during the period 2010-2019. for this purpose, we compared the eastern european countries, dominated by rapid economic growth and development with the western european countries, which represent the most developed countries in the eu-28. from this perspective, we proposed a multidimensional analysis of consumption that includes macroeconomic indicators of households’ wealth, which strongly influence their consumption together with an overview on expenditure by consumption purpose. moreover, we have also considered hofstede’s cultural dimension theory based initially on four cultural dimensions (power distance, individualism versus collectivism, masculinity versus femininity, and uncertainty avoidance) to observe the impact national culture plays on households’ consumption in eastern and western european countries tracking the historical changes of these countries. our methodological approach consisted in descriptive and inferential statistics based on the selected economic and cultural indicators. pearson’s product-moment correlations were calculated to assess the correlations between the variables. our analysis shows that the level of wealth is lower in eastern european countries compared to western europe, which influences significantly the private consumption in these countries. moreover, the systematic differences of national culture between eastern and western europe influence strongly the private consumption of their population. results of this paper indicate that in eastern european countries the highest share of expenditure is allocated to primary needs such as food, non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and cigarettes to the detriment of health, education, recreation and culture. keywords: households’ consumption, european union, income, national culture, hofstede’s theory scopul prezentei lucrări este de a studia consumul gospodăriilor din perspectivă economică și culturală în uniunea europeană cu 28 de state membre în perioada 2010-2019. în acest sens, am comparat țările din europa de est, dominate de creștere și dezvoltare economică rapidă, cu țările din europa de vest, care reprezintă țările cele mai dezvoltate din ue-28. din această perspectivă, am propus o analiză multidimensională a consumului care include indicatori macroeconomici ai avuției 1id orcid: 0000-0002-5126-1361, e-mail: onofreinicoleta.94@gmail.com 2id orcid: 0000-0001-7795-2403, e-mail: teodorapasa@gmail.com *the information and views set out in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of her employer. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5126-1361 mailto:onofreinicoleta.94@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7795-2403 mailto:teodorapasa@gmail.com economy and sociology 53 june no. 1/2021 gospodăriilor, care influențează puternic consumul acestora, precum și o imagine de ansamblu asupra cheltuielilor în funcție de scopul consumului. în plus, am luat în considerare, de asemenea, teoria dimensiunii culturale a lui hofstede bazată inițial pe patru dimensiuni culturale (distanța față de putere, individualismul versus colectivismul, masculinitatea versus feminitatea și evitarea incertitudinii) pentru a observa impactul pe care cultura națională îl are asupra consumului gospodăriilor în țările din europa de est și de vest, urmărind schimbările istorice din aceste țări. abordarea metodologică a studiului a constat în statistici descriptive și inferențiale bazate pe indicatorii economici și culturali selectați. metoda pearson a fost aplicată pentru a evalua corelațiile dintre variabile. analiza noastră arată că nivelul de bunăstare este mai scăzut în țările din europa de est în comparație cu europa de vest, ceea ce influențează în mod semnificativ consumul privat din aceste țări. în plus, diferențele sistematice de cultură națională dintre europa de est și europa de vest influențează puternic consumul privat al populației lor. rezultatele acestui studiu indică faptul că, în țările din europa de est, cea mai mare parte a cheltuielilor este alocată nevoilor primare, cum ar fi alimentele, băuturile nealcoolice, băuturile alcoolice și țigările, în detrimentul sănătății, educației, recreerii și culturii. cuvinte cheie: consumul gospodăriilor, uniunea europeană, venit, cultura națională, teoria lui hofstede целью данной статьи является изучение потребления домашних хозяйств с экономической и культурной точки зрения в европейском союзе с 28 государствами-членами в период 2010-2019 гг. в связи с этим мы сравнили страны восточной европы, в которых преобладают высокие темпы экономического роста и развития, со странами западной европы, которые являются наиболее развитыми странами в ес-28. с этой точки зрения мы предложили многомерный анализ потребления, который включает макроэкономические показатели благосостояния домашних хозяйств, которые сильно влияют на их потребление, а также обзор расходов по целям потребления. кроме того, мы также рассмотрели теорию культурного измерения хофстеде, первоначально основанную на четырех культурных измерениях (дистанция от власти, индивидуализм против коллективизма, мужественность против женственности и избегание неопределенности) для определения влияния национальной культуры на потребление домашних хозяйств в странах восточной и западной европы, в контексте исторических изменений в этих странах. методологический подход исследования состоял из описательной и выведенной статистики на основе отобранных экономических и культурных показателей. для оценки корреляции между показателями применялся метод пирсона. наш анализ показывает, что уровень благосостояния в странах восточной европы ниже, чем в странах западной европы, что существенно влияет на частное потребление в этих странах. кроме того, систематические различия в национальной культуре между восточной и западной европой сильно влияют на частное потребление их населения. результаты этого исследования показывают, что в странах восточной европы большая часть расходов направляется на удовлетворение основных потребностей, таких как продукты питания, безалкогольные напитки, алкогольные напитки и сигареты, в ущерб здоровью, образованию, отдыху и культуре. ключевые слова: потребление домашних хозяйств, европейский союз, доходы, национальная культура, теория хофстеде introduction our society is called a consumerist society as the level of consumption of goods and services nowadays has never been seen in the history of humanity (matsuyama 2002:5-7). the gradual transition towards consumerism started after and it has triggered progress in all areas of activity, which lead to a lifestyle of individuals inclined towards wealth. private consumption represents the household's consumption of goods and services. the households’ consumption accounts for around 50% of eu-28 gross domestic product (gdp) compared to around 20% for government consumption (eurostat, 2019). the assignation of financial resources towards private consumption implies a reduction of the personal savings, and, in some cases even indebtedness of individuals and households. households’ income determines the level of their consumption and the category of goods and services towards which they decide allocate their budget. https://www.eea.europa.eu/soer/themes/households theoretical and scientifical journal 54 june no. 1/2021 the private consumption is very limited in those households in which the income does not cover the expenses of their basic needs. according to engel’s law, the wealthier households allocate a smaller share of their budget for food, which is a basic need, assigning their resources to more sophisticated needs. households' consumption in the european union is still divergent triggering numerous differences between countries. factors that drive households’ consumption are triggered by economic features such as disposable income and individual consumption, and socio-cultural characteristics such as habits and cultures. in this paper, we have considered hofstede’s cultural dimension theory based initially on four cultural dimensions (power distance, individualism versus collectivism, masculinity versus femininity and uncertainty avoidance) to observe the impact national culture has on households’ consumption in eu-28 member states during 2010-2019. for this purpose, we have drawn statistical comparisons between the western european countries, the most developed countries in the eu-28 and eastern european countries, developing countries, which joined the eu after 2004. this paper is structured in five parts. the first part contains the introduction, which indicates the research question. the second part of the paper covers the literature review of economic and cultural influences of households’ consumption in the european union. the third part of the study describes the research methodology including the data sources. the fourth part of the paper presents the results and discussions derived from the study. finally, the fifth part shows the conclusions of the study. literature review some authors define consumption as “spending for survival or enjoyment as opposite to providing for future production” (black 1997:84). recent research (sadik-zada & loewenstein 2018:196–204) reveals the direct relationship between disposable income and consumption. other authors argue that income effects show differences in the spending patterns of affluent households rise (chai et al. 2015:423–440) and that changes in household wealth impact on consumption (jawadi et al. 2017:849). furthermore, consumption is shaped by the interaction between the national context and individual lifestyle preferences (thøgersen 2017:16–25). moreover, households’ consumption is a complex process, which represents the result of social, cultural and economic influences (zukin & maguire 2004:174). other authors (schor 2002:3–4) indicate that motivations of consumption are social, these deriving from the need to keep pace with the level of consumption promoted by the society rather than with objective individual needs. some authors (firat et al. 2013:199) conclude that culture is one of the most important factors affecting attitudes, behaviors and lifestyles of households’ consumption. if we consider the socio-economic context of the countries in the european union, we can distinguish two different societies: western europe and eastern europe. on one hand, the socioeconomic evolution of eastern european countries produced by the collapse of the communist regime triggered a significant change in the political regime. this implied a major transition from the planned economy towards a market economy (lipton et al. 1990:6–79). on the other hand, countries from the western europe are more economically developed having an individualistic culture, whereas eastern european countries are developing at a rapid pace being more traditional (trentmann 2004:378). some authors indicate the differences in the structure of households’ consumption appeared due to different levels of socio-economic development in different countries along with historical, geographical and cultural factors (kozera et al. 2013:293-303). for some categories of consumption such as clothing, footwear, miscellaneous goods and services eastern european countries before joining the eu spent less than western european countries (arnotte 1999:1–8). some authors (yıldırım et al. 2016:42-51) consider that culture shapes purchases decisions of individuals. moreover, other authors point out the role of cultural differences on individual consumption behaviors (de mooij 2017:444-456) identifying the national culture as critical factor (nair & little 2016:178). differences in households’ consumption between the western and the eastern european countries are more visible in the experience of operating in the market economy, the demand for basic goods and the level of saturation, which are in the detriment of the latter ones (szwacka-mokrzycka 2017:169-178). recent research (michail 2020:979-994) indicates that household consumption patterns in the european union are more convergent in the eurozone than outside it. moreover, cultural values in some countries have restrained the spread of consumerism (roach et al. 2019:17). in addition, some studies include the effects of national culture on household’s consumption taking into consideration hofstede's cultural dimensions theory. from this economy and sociology 55 june no. 1/2021 perspective, low power distance countries have a higher tendency to change (matusitz & musambira 2013:42–60), whereas consumers with low levels of uncertainty avoidance are prone to take more risks (hwa-froelich & vigil 2004:107-118). research methodology the aim of this paper is to analyze the households’ consumption in the european union and to identify some economic and social variables that influence consumption. in our analysis we refer to the period 2010-2019 based on the data availability of the indicators analyzed. in this paper, we have used descriptive statistics to correlate economic indicators such as the adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita, the actual individual consumption and households’ expenditure by consumption purpose with the cultural factors based on hofstede’s initial model of national culture. both economic indicators used in this paper are expressed in purchasing power standards (pps) to include the price level differences across the countries subject to our analysis. adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita reflects “the purchasing power of households and their ability to invest in goods and services or save for the future” (eurostat, 2019). this indicator includes the flows of services households receive free of charge from governments (e.g. education, health, etc.). in this paper, we used this indicator as it reflects the disposable income of households available for consumption and/or savings. actual individual consumption (aic) measures all the goods and services consumed by households including the services provided by government or non-profit organizations (e.g. education, health, etc.). this indicator is preferred in comparative studies as indicator of households’ material welfare. in this paper, we focus only on households’ consumption, therefore we have excluded from our analysis the services provided by government or non-profit organizations. households’ expenditure by consumption purpose depicts the allocation of income aggregated at the national level to the main categories of spending such as food & non-alcoholic beverages, clothing & footwear, housing, health, education, recreation and culture. from the side of cultural factors that influence consumption, we relied on hofstede’s model of national culture (hofstede 1980:15–41) that initially comprised four dimensions: power distance, individualism versus collectivism, masculinity versus femininity and uncertainty avoidance. power distance index (pdi) reflects the way in which a society reacts to inequalities among its members. a high power distance index is characteristic for societies in which people accept differences and hierarchical order, while in countries with a low power distance people with less power strive to minimize the inequalities in the distribution of power. individualism versus collectivism (idv) shows whether the members of a society are inclined to act only for their own welfare and for their families (high index values) or on the contrary it is a society in which members of different groups help each other selflessly. masculinity versus femininity (mas) differentiates between societies oriented towards achievement, heroism, material rewards for success (high values correspond to masculinity) and those in which cooperation and modesty are appreciated values (low values correspond to femininity). uncertainty avoidance index (uai) reflects how uncomfortable are the members of a society with ambiguity and uncertainty. societies with a high uai are more intolerant and respect rigid codes of behavior, while those with a low uai have a more relaxed attitude and accept more easily uncertain situations. in our analysis we verified the following hypotheses: h1: actual individual consumption is positively correlated with the adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita. h2: households’ expenditure by consumption purpose is positively correlated with the adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita. . h3: actual individual consumption is positively correlated with the hofstede’s 4 dimensions of national culture. h4: households’ expenditure by consumption purpose is correlated with the hofstede’s 4 dimensions of national culture. theoretical and scientifical journal 56 june no. 1/2021 the statistical approach applied to verify these hypotheses is the pearson’s product-moment correlation analysis. moreover, the results and discussions derived from our analysis are presented in section 4 of this paper. results and discussions the total gross disposable income of households in eu-28 amounted to eur 9 781 billion in 2018 (eurostat, 2019). figure 1 reflects the evolution of the adjusted gross household disposable income per capita in eu-28 during the period 2010-2019 (data for malta and uk was not available). in this paper, we used the data converted in purchasing power standards (pps), which allowed us to draw an accurate comparison between all the eu-28 member states. the mean adjusted gross household disposable income per capita in eu-28 had an upward movement during the whole period analyzed, increasing from 19 650 pps (2010) to 23 599 pps (2019). however, major differences can be observed between the member states from eastern and western europe. the major difference is between luxembourg and bulgaria, the countries with the highest and respectively lowest value in terms of adjusted gross income per capita. in 2010, luxembourg exceeded almost 4 times the adjusted gross disposable income per capita compared to bulgaria. in 2019, the country that has exceeded the eu-28 average was germany (+28,5 %), followed by austria (+19,4 %), belgium (+14,8 %), netherlands (+12,3 %), france (+10,8 %), finland, sweden and denmark (less than 10 %) (data for luxembourg was not available for 2019, but in 2018 it registered 41,2 % more than the eu-28 average). at the opposite pole, we find the eastern european countries as eight countries recorded values of 20 % or more below the eu-28 average (data for bulgaria was not available, but in 2017, the most recent available year, it registered 46,1 % of the eu28 average). the lowest values of adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita in 2019 were registered in croatia (63,4% of the eu-28 average), latvia (65,8%), greece (67,4%), hungary (68,2%), romania (70,4%), slovakia (71,5%), poland (73,3%), and estonia (75,4%). the analysis of the adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita expressed in pps indicates clearly the significant differences in income between the eastern and western europe. the year 2019 marks the 15 years period after the accession of the eastern european countries to the eu back in 2004. this means that even after 15 years of economic convergence, there are still significant imbalances in income between eastern and western european countries. figure 1: adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita in pps source: authors’ contribution based on eurostat data (2010-2019) 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 economy and sociology 57 june no. 1/2021 the evolution of the actual individual consumption (aic) is analyzed in this paper as an indicator for the material welfare of households at the european union level for the period 2010-2019 (figure 2). as observed in figure 1, in figure 2 we remark a similar pattern in households’ welfare with significant differences between the eastern and western european countries. the mean aic for eu-28 increased from 17 600 pps (2010) to 21 000 pps (2019). the countries that exceed the eu-28 aic average are luxembourg (+31,9 %), germany (+20 %), austria (+15,2 %), denmark (+13,8 %), netherlands (+12,4 %), united kingdom (+11, 4%) followed by finland (+11 %) and france (+7,1 %). the countries with the lowest aic in eu are bulgaria (-42,9 % from the eu-28 mean), croatia (-35,7 %), hungary (-33,8 %), slovakia (-31,9 %), latvia (-35,5 %) followed by estonia, greece, poland and romania with less than 30 % below the eu-28 aic average. slovenia, czech republic, malta, and portugal registered values of aic with 20 % below the eu-28 average, while spain, ireland, italy, cyprus and lithuania had values less than 10 % below the eu-28 mean. the analysis of figures 1 and 2 indicate that eastern european countries position themselves lower on both economic indicators used in this study compared to the western european countries. the differences in the welfare of households between the eu-28 member states reveal challenges that developing countries from eastern europe strive to attain in order to reach the development level of western european countries. figure 2: actual individual consumption (real expenditure per capita in pps) source: authors’ contribution based on eurostat data (2010-2019) table 1 reveals the evolution of households’ expenditure by consumption purpose in function of geographical zone, western europe (we) and eastern europe (ee) during the period 2010-2019. we observe major differences between western and eastern european countries as regards the distribution of households’ expenditure to different categories of consumption. eastern european countries spent much more money on food & alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco & narcotics and communications than western countries, and less on housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels, recreation & culture and restaurants & hotels. the differences on categories of consumption such as education, clothing & footwear, health and transport are insignificant for both western and eastern european countries. 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 e u 2 8 b e lg iu m b u lg a ri a c ze ch r e p u b li c d e n m a rk g e rm a n y e st o n ia ir e la n d g re e ce s p a in f ra n ce c ro a ti a it a ly c y p ru s la tv ia li th u a n ia lu xe m b o u rg h u n g a ry m a lt a n e th e rl a n d s a u st ri a p o la n d p o rt u g a l r o m a n ia s lo v e n ia s lo v a k ia f in la n d s w e d e n u n it e d k in g d o m 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 theoretical and scientifical journal 58 june no. 1/2021 table 1 households’ expenditure by consumption purpose (share of total=100) region 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 food and nonalcoholic beverages we 11.7 11.7 11.9 12 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.5 ee 18.2 18 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.4 18.3 18.1 18 alcoholic beverages, tobacco & narcotics we 4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4 4.1 4.1 4 4 ee 7 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 clothing & footwear we 5 4.9 4.9 5 5 5 4.9 4.8 4.7 ee 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels we 22.9 22.9 23.4 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.2 23.3 ee 21.5 21.8 21.8 21 20.9 21 20.3 20 20 furnishings, household equipment & routine household maintenance we 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 6 ee 5 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 5 5 5.2 health we 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4 4 4 4 ee 4 4 3.9 4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 transport we 12.9 13.2 13 12.7 12.7 12.5 12 12.6 12.9 ee 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.1 12 12.2 12.3 communications we 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 ee 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 recreation & culture we 9 9.1 9 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 ee 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.2 education we 1 1 1 1.1 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 ee 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1 1 1.3 1.3 1.2 restaurants & hotels we 9 9.1 9.1 9.3 9 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.2 ee 7 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8 miscellaneous goods & services we 11.3 11.2 11 11 11.2 11 11.3 11.2 11.3 ee 8.1 8 8 8.1 8.1 8 8.2 8 8.4 source: authors’ contribution based on eurostat data (2010-2019) economy and sociology 59 june no. 1/2021 in this paper, we considered the hypothesis following which the aic and the distribution of households’ expenditure across different categories of consumption is not only influenced by the economic factors, but also by national cultural dimensions. for this purpose, we correlated the actual individual consumption and households’ expenditure by consumption purpose with the adjusted gross disposable income, and with the 4 dimensions of national culture proposed initially by hofstede. the results of the correlation tests (table 2) show that aic is positively correlated with adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita (p-value<0.0001) and idv (p-value<0.01), and negatively correlated with pdi (p-value<0.001) and uai (p-value=0.05). the correlation between aic and mas is not statistically significant. thus, countries with higher income per capita and with individualistic population register higher values on aic. on the contrary, countries in which people accept inequalities between their members and avoid uncertainty, have lower values on aic. regarding the correlations with households’ expenditure by consumption purposes we observed that the adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita is positively correlated with furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (p-value<0.01), miscellaneous goods and services (p-value<0.0001), and, negatively correlated with food and non-alcoholic beverages (p-value<0.0001), alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics (p-value<0.05), communications (p-value<0.0001), and education (p-value<0.05). pdi is positively correlated with food and non-alcoholic beverages (p-value<0.01), communications (p-value<0.01), and negatively correlated with recreation and culture (p-value<0.05). these findings suggest that in societies in which people accept inequalities between their members, less money will be spent on recreational and cultural activities and more money on food and non-alcoholic beverages and communications. if we consider that people with less power have also lower levels of income, then these results are relevant and intuitive. individualism versus collectivism is positively correlated with housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (p-value<0.05), recreation and culture (p-value<0.05), miscellaneous goods and services (p-value<0.05) and negatively correlated with food and non-alcoholic beverages (pvalue=0.01) and communications (p-value<0.01). masculinity versus femininity index is not significantly correlated with any of the variables included in the analysis. in societies in which people have a high level of uncertainty avoidance, more is spent on food and non-alcoholic beverages (p<0.05), health (p<0.05), and less on housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (p-value=0.01) and recreation and culture (p-value<0.001). table 2 pearson’s product-moment correlations between aic, households’ expenditure by consumption purpose and adjusted gross disposable income per capita and hofstede’s 4 dimensions of national culture adjusted gross disposable income per capita power distance index (pdi) individualism versus collectivism (idv) masculinity versus femininity (mas) uncertainty avoidance index (uai) actual individual consumption (aic) 0.9898214 **** p-value < 2.2e16 -0.5972491 *** p-value = 0.00162 0.5279604 ** p-value = 0.006675 -0.06675845 p-value = 0.7512 -0.3834227 * p-value = 0.05849 food and nonalcoholic beverages -0.8203692 **** p-value = 5.146e-07 0.5679182 ** p-value = 0.003063 -0.4773361 ** p-value = 0.01583 -0.1084955 p-value = 0.6057 0.393135 * p-value = 0.05188 alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics -0.4375898 * p-value = 0.0287 0.1672928 p-value = 0.4241 -0.0673258 p-value = 0.7492 0.06006066 p-value = 0.7755 0.07276739 p-value = 0.7296 theoretical and scientifical journal 60 june no. 1/2021 clothing and footwear 0.3066982 p-value = 0.1359 -0.3622259 p-value = 0.07517 0.1586611 p-value = 0.4487 -0.2323645 p-value = 0.2637 -0.03563647 p-value = 0.8657 housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 0.5186466 p-value = 0.007901 -0.08051141 p-value = 0.702 0.4103231 * p-value = 0.04162 0.1398564 p-value = 0.5049 -0.4795802 ** p-value = 0.01527 furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance 0.5376524 ** p-value = 0.005573 -0.2293347 p-value = 0.2701 0.35585 p-value = 0.08084 0.1973647 p-value = 0.3443 -0.2591889 p-value = 0.2109 health -0.2549813 p-value = 0.2187 0.2173657 p-value = 0.2966 -0.1872141 p-value = 0.3702 0.002146365 p-value = 0.9919 0.4569065 * p-value = 0.02167 transport 0.1538905 p-value = 0.4627 -0.3145666 p-value = 0.1256 -0.07707822 p-value = 0.7142 -0.2883868 p-value = 0.1621 0.1578673 p-value = 0.451 communications -0.7351082 **** p-value = 2.843e-05 0.5035237 ** p-value = 0.01029 -0.4769184 ** p-value = 0.01593 0.04081415 p-value = 0.8464 0.2687174 p-value = 0.194 recreation and culture 0.3611103 p-value = 0.07614 -0.3895767 * p-value = 0.05423 0.4114046 * p-value = 0.04103 -0.2512522 p-value = 0.2257 -0.6127655 *** p-value = 0.001128 education -0.4289208 * p-value = 0.0324 0.2681378 p-value = 0.195 -0.3321518 p-value = 0.1048 0.3510357 p-value = 0.08533 0.1576021 p-value = 0.4518 restaurants and hotels 0.0008428659 p-value = 0.9968 -0.1872007 p-value = 0.3702 -0.2055235 p-value = 0.3243 0.199351 p-value = 0.3394 0.1152958 p-value = 0.5831 miscellaneous goods and services 0.7805442 **** p-value = 4.171e-06 -0.3206204 p-value = 0.1181 0.4982304 ** p-value = 0.01125 0.01389205 p-value = 0.9475 -0.1378836 p-value = 0.511 source: calculated by the authors based on eurostat data (2010-2019) conclusions in this paper, we analyzed the households’ consumption in the european union with 28 member states during the period 2010-2019 from an economic and cultural perspective. in the first part of our analysis, we described the evolution of two macroeconomic indicators, the adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita and the actual individual consumption per capita. the results show that the population from the eastern europe is less wealthy than the population from the western countries, since they recorded lower values on both economic indicators. the countries with the lowest adjusted gross disposable income per capita are bulgaria, estonia, poland, slovakia, romania and economy and sociology 61 june no. 1/2021 hungary, while the countries with the highest values on this indicator are luxembourg, germany, austria, belgium and netherlands. the eu-28 average of the actual individual consumption increased significantly during the period analyzed from 17600 pps per capita in 2010 to 21 000 pps per capita in 2019. the countries with the lowest aic are the eastern european countries, namely bulgaria, croatia, hungary, slovakia and latvia. at the opposite pole, there are the western european countries, such as luxembourg, germany, austria, denmark and netherlands. regarding the household expenditure by consumption purpose, we observed that eastern european countries households allocate higher shares of their total households’ expenditure to the basic categories of consumption such as food, alcoholic beverages, tobacco in the detriment of education, recreational and cultural activities. the population living in the western europe allocate higher shares of their budget than the population living in the eastern europe for categories of consumption such as housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels, clothing and footwear, recreation and culture, restaurants and hotels. we hypothesized that the differences in consumption are also related with the cultural differences between the two groups of countries, western europe and eastern europe. in the second part of our analysis, we verified four hypotheses regarding the correlation between the actual individual consumption and households’ expenditure by consumption purpose on one side and the adjusted gross disposable income and hofstede’s 4 cultural dimensions on the other side. we used the cultural dimensions in our analysis since they also influence consumption besides the economic factors. according to the correlation tests, the first hypothesis is accepted, since we obtained a positive correlation between the adjusted gross disposable income and the actual individual consumption. the second hypothesis is only partially accepted because only some categories of consumption expenditures are correlated with the adjusted gross disposable income. the third hypothesis is also partially accepted: 3 dimensions of 4 are correlated with aic (power distance index, individualism versus collectivism, and uncertainty avoidance index. the fourth hypothesis is only partially true, as in the previous case, hofstede’s dimensions are correlated only with some categories of consumption expenditures. our study creates the 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(2004). consumers and consumption. annual review of sociology, 30(1), 173–197. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.30.012703.110553 article history received 19 february 2021 accepted 06 may 2021 how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 10 no. 2 / 2019 determining agriculture production efficiency based on the new assessment tools dmitri parmacli1, habilitation in economics, professor, state comrat university, republic of moldova alexandru stratan2, habilitation in economics, professor, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.2-01 jel classification: m41, i10, l31 udc: 631.158:005.52 abstract profitability indicators describe the result of the management process more comprehensively than profit, characterize the effectiveness and efficiency of management, because their value shows the ratio of the effect with cash or input resources. they are used to evaluate the performance of the enterprise, as well as an instrument of investment policy and pricing. most often, in practice, agricultural enterprises calculate indicators that characterize the profitability of production costs, investment projects and profitability of sales. it is very important to calculate the profitability levels of each type of sold products and give them an estimate, which allows identifying the most profitable ones. methodological approaches are proposed in order to determine the four levels of profitability of the sold products, which are clearly presented in tables and graphs. it is important to grade the levels of profitability for each type of sold product, and therefore, it is becoming possible to assess their degree of effectiveness or level of profitability. the purpose of the article is to provide teachers from higher educational institutions, as well as agricultural specialists with modern tools for assessing the effectiveness of sold products, in particular through application of an unconventional method. the presented study allows specialists of agricultural enterprises to determine on the basis of two coefficients (return on fixed and specific variable costs) the moderate, rational, optimal and high profitability of sold grain, sunflower, grapes and other products and based on them to justify the amount of expected profit. keywords: profitability, profit, efficiency, profit margin, rate of return, fixed costs, price, variable costs per unit, cost. indicatorii de rentabilitate descriu rezultatul procesului managerial mai cuprinzător decât profitul, caracterizează eficiența și eficacitatea managementului, dat fiind faptul că valoarea acestora prezintă relația dintre efect și resursele de numerar sau cele utilizate. aceștia sunt utilizați pentru a evalua activitățile întreprinderii, precum și în calitate de instrument al politicii investiționale și de stabilire a prețurilor. în cele mai dese cazuri, în practică, întreprinderile agricole calculează indicatori care caracterizează rentabilitatea costurilor de producție, a proiectelor de investiții și a rentabilității vânzărilor. este foarte important de a calcula nivelurile de rentabilitate ale fiecărui tip de produse vândute și de a oferi o estimare a acestora, ceea ce va contribui la identificarea celor mai profitabile produse. sunt propuse abordări metodologice pentru determinarea a patru niveluri de rentabilitate a produselor vândute, care sunt prezentate în mod clar în tabele și grafice. este important de a evalua nivelurile de rentabilitate pentru fiecare tip de produs vândut, ceea ce permite evaluarea gradului lor de eficiență sau nivelul de rentabilitate. scopul articolului este de a oferi cadrelor didactice din instituțiile de învățământ superior, precum și specialiștilor din domeniul agrar instrumente moderne pentru evaluarea eficienței produselor vândute, în special prin utilizarea unei metode neconvenționale. studiul prezentat permite specialiștilor din întreprinderile agricole să determine în baza a doi coeficienți (rentabilitatea costurilor fixe și a costurilor variabile pe unitate) valoarea rentabilității moderate, raționale, optime și ridicate a cerealelor vândute, a florii-soarelui, strugurilor, precum și a altor produse și în baza acestora, să justifice valoarea profitului scontat. cuvinte-cheie: rentabilitate, profit, eficiență, marjă de profit, rata de rentabilitate, costuri fixe, preț, costuri variabile pe unitate, cost. 1 © dmitri parmacli, parmad741@mail.ru 2 © alexandru stratan, alex_stratan@yahoo.com economy and sociology 11 no. 2 / 2019 показатели рентабельности описывают результат процесса управления более полно, чем прибыль, характеризуют результативность и эффективность хозяйствования, так как их величина показывает соотношение эффекта с наличными или использованными ресурсами. их применяют для оценки деятельности предприятия и как инструмент инвестиционной политики и ценообразования. чаще всего в практике сельскохозяйственных предприятий рассчитывают показатели, характеризующие рентабельность издержек производства, инвестиционных проектов и рентабельность продаж. очень важно проводить расчеты уровней рентабельности каждого вида реализованной продукции и осуществлять их оценку, что позволяет выявить наиболее доходные из них. в данной статье предлагаются методические подходы по определению четырех уровней рентабельности реализованной продукции, наглядно представленные в таблицах и графиках. важно проводить градацию уровней рентабельности по каждому виду реализованной продукции, в связи с чем представляется возможность оценивать степень их эффективности или уровень доходности. цель статьи обеспечить преподавателей высших учебных заведений, а также специалистов сельского хозяйства современным инструментарием оценки эффективности реализованной продукции, в том числе с использованием нетрадиционного метода. представленное исследование позволяет специалистам сельскохозяйственных предприятий, на базе двух коэффициентов (окупаемости постоянных и удельных переменных затрат) определять величину умеренной, рациональной, оптимальной и высокой рентабельности реализованного зерна, подсолнечника, винограда и другой продукции и на этой основе обосновать объем ожидаемой прибыли. ключевые слова: рентабельность, прибыль, эффективность, норма прибыли, норма прибыли, постоянные затраты, цена, переменные затраты на единицу, стоимость. introduction. profitability indicators describe the outcome of the managerial process more comprehensively than profit because their values present the effect achieved as a function of the required cash or resource inputs. these indicators are applied to assess the farm’s performance and as an investment policy and pricing tool. more often than not, agricultural enterprises calculate certain values that describe the profitability of production costs, investment projects and sales. it is very important to calculate and to assess the profitability of each type of sold products in ord er to identify the most profitable ones. research methodology. this research was based on general scientific methods and certain specific approaches – and in particular an abstract-logical approach to substantiate the methodology applied to assess the efficiency of product sales; statistical and economic approach to analyse prevailing production and sales values for core crops in a given agricultural enterprise; graphic method to compare the actual efficiency of the cultivated crops with their graded profitability levels. literature review. state-of-art agricultural science is looking for new ways to improve the efficiency of agricultural production. of interest in this respect are the works by v.p. pavlik [1, 2015] and by o.g. szpikuljak and o.a. materzynska [2, 2014] proposing a new approach for assessment of product efficiency and substantiating the efficiency growth drivers. economic literature considers the sustainability of land-use results from diverse perspectives. in particular, a. rasskazova and r. zhdanov introduce the concept of economic efficiency of sustainable land use in their publications [3, 2017]; s. siptits considers the matters of combining the efficiency with sustainable operation of agro-food systems [4, 2017]; i. romanenko and n. evdokimova consider the sustainability and efficiency of such territorial distribution of crop production which would ensure a high degree of utilisation of the territory’s bioclimatic potential [5, 2017]. of importance is also the research performed by a.i. altukhov [6, 2016]. the author of this latter research explores the current approaches to efficiency assessment of land use in agriculture. the research performed by moldovan authors and deserving special mention is the wor k by v. doga and e. timofti, who have developed and suggested in their studies their own versions for the economic engine to improve agricultural efficiency based on sustainable land use [7 , 2006; 8, theoretical and scientifical journal 12 no. 2 / 2019 2009]. of importance is also the research by l. todorici and t. dudoglo, one of them considers the agricultural production sustainability problems [9, 2013] and the other assesses the sustainability of soil productivity in moldova’s regions [10, dudoglo t., 2017]. the purpose of this article is to provide teach ers from higher educational institutions, as well as agricultural specialists with modern tools for assessing the effectiveness of sold products, in particular through application of an unconventional method. research results. it is known that the performance of agricultural production is largely dependent on weather and climate, i.e. the factors which the current science is not able to forecast more or less reliably. no matter how thoroughly and correctly (in methodology terms ) agricultural professionals plan their costs of materials and cash investments with due account of accepted production techniques, it is not possible to reliably forecast the expected crop yields and thus the gross output of the cultivated crops. similar costs may result in high crop cultivation efficiency and sales profitability in good years and in losses in bad years. this instability is characteristic in particular of risky (marginal) farming zones and in particular of the southern zone of the republic of moldova [11, parmacli d., dudoglo t., 2016]. but then, how can one determine production costs, return on investments and other economic values reflecting management quality in the absence of any reasonably substantiated crop productivity data? that is where we apply marginal analysis as the most appropriate tool. the research suggests that certain production and sales efficiency indicators finding application in agriculture (such as profit per hectare of the area under the crop and per 100 kg (metric centner) of harvested products; financial safety margin; and operating leverage) can be calculated with rather high reliability without recourse to the data on yield per hectare and gross output of the cultivated crops. it is known that fixed costs per hecta re (fc) and variable costs per unit (avc) are not affected by the yield per hectare. in other words, this specific nature of fixed costs and variable costs per unit will enable us to make the required efficiency calculations. it is important to estimate the expected selling price (p) as objectively as possible as part of the planning process because neither does selling price depend on the output of any given enterprise since agricultural enterprises operate in an environment of free competition [12, parmacli d., 2016]. knowing these three values, we can determine the profitability threshold (qmin) for each crop according to the well-known formula: metric centners (100 kg) per hectare (1) where: fc = semi-fixed costs per hectare of the area under the crops, in mdl; avc = variable costs per unit of output, in mdl per metric centner (100 kg); p = selling price of the product, in mdl per metric centner (100 kg). our research identified a certain interdependence between the economic efficiency va lues of the produced and sold products and the difference between the actual crop yield (q) and the breakeven yield (profitability threshold). to reflect this difference, we have introduced an indicator which we call the yield growth rate (n): n = q 𝑞min (2) below are the formulas used to calculate the value of certain indicators reflecting the efficiency of marketable products in agriculture: profit per hectare: p = fc (n -1), in mdl per hectare (3) profit per unit – metric centner (100 kg) of products: p = md (1 − 1 n ) , in mdl per metric centner (100 kg) (4) where: md = marginal income per product output unit (md = p avc), in mdl per metric centner (100 kg) economy and sociology 13 no. 2 / 2019 financial safety margin (d): d = 1 1 𝑛 (5) operating leverage (l): l = 𝑛 𝑛−1 (6) table 1 and figure 1 below show the interdependence between profit and yield growth rate. table 1 the interdependence between profit and yield growth rate yield growth rate profit per hectare growth rate profit per output unit growth rate yield growth rate profit per hectare growth rate profit per output unit growth rate 1.0 0.0 0.000 2.6 1.6 0.616 1.2 0.2 0.167 2.8 1.8 0.643 1.4 0.4 0.286 3.0 2.0 0.667 1.6 0.6 0.375 3.2 2.2 0.688 1.8 0.8 0,445 3.4 2.4 0.706 2.0 1.0 0.500 3.6 2,6 0.723 2.2 1.2 0.546 3.8 2.8 0.737 2.4 1.4 0.584 4.0 3.0 0.750 source: calculated according to formulas 3 and 4. figure 1. influence of yield growth rate on profit per hectare growth rate and profit per 100 kg growth rate source: produced from the data in table 1. now we apply formulas 5 and 6 to calculate the interdependence between the financial safety margin and the operating leverage on the yield growth rate (table 2). the financial safety margin increases and the operating leverage decreases with growing yields. however, the graph in figure 2 shows that the rates of the above changes are slowing down with growing yields. theoretical and scientifical journal 14 no. 2 / 2019 table 2 interdependence between the financial safety margin and operating leverage and the yield growth rate yield growth rate financial safety margin operating leverage yield growth rate financial safety margin operating leverage 1.0 0.000 0.00 2.6 0.616 1.62 1.2 0.167 5.99 2.8 0.643 1.56 1.4 0.286 3.50 3.0 0.667 1.50 1.6 0.375 2.67 3.2 0.688 1.45 1.8 0.445 2.25 3.4 0.706 1.42 2.0 0.500 2.00 3.6 0.723 1.38 2.2 0.546 1.83 3.8 0.737 1.36 2.4 0.584 1.71 4.0 0.750 1.33 source: calculated according to formulas 5 and 6. figure 2. interdependence between the financial safety margin and operating leverage and the yield growth rate source: produced from the data in table 2. it is known that any agricultural enterprise usually cultivates more than one crop. the production and sale of some crops gives a high return on investments while some other crops have a low profit margin. nevertheless, it is not always possible to discontinue production of these latter crops because of agro-technical crop rotation requirements or some other in-house and external reasons. in other words, sales of different products invariably have different profit margins. the profitability of a particular crop can fluctuate significantly in the republic of moldova, mainly because of the weather and climatic conditions prevailing during the crop cultivation and harvesting season, and range between loss and a profit margin of over 30%. for example, the profit margin of grain sold in the republic of moldova fluctuated between -3.5% in 2009 and +39.9% in 2011; of sunflower seeds – between 16.6% in 2009 and 89.8% in 2010; of grapes – between 6.0% in 2009 and 37.0% in 2012 [13, 2018]. therefore, a scientifically substantiated classification (gradation) of the sales profitability levels for diverse agricultural crops will be in demand because each level will indicate a particular efficiency range for cultivation of the crop concerned. it is important for an agricultural enterprise to know and thus to objectively budget the level of costs that will ensure a certain yield per hectare required to achieve sustainable and/or expanding reproduction. thus, we have approached the problem of a substantiated profitability planning for each of the crops cultivated by the enterprise. economy and sociology 15 no. 2 / 2019 of course, the objective of any business entity is to ensure higher return on its production inputs. nevertheless, for diverse reasons, the average 2001-2012 profit margins in agricultural enterprises in the southern zone of the republic of moldova for production and sales were: 43.8% for sunflower seeds, 46.0% for winter rape, 26.7% for grapes, 11.7% for legumes and grains other than corn, and 6.1% for corn [13, 2018]. (starting in 2013, moldova has no longer published any data concerning the local production costs and so it is not possible to calculate the profit margins). the profit margin is calculated for sales according to this formula: p = n−z z = п z (7) where: p = profit from sales, in mdl; z = costs of production and sales, in mdl. thus, it has been demonstrated that the most important efficiency indicator of the product sales can be measured applying a relative value – the profit margin. in view of this measurement nature, it would be perfectly logical to ask this question: if profitability is relative in its nature, why not measure it applying some other relative indicators? marginal analysis is used for practical purposes, when planning the revenue from sales of products and the profit margin. application of this method in financial management of local enterprises will enable more effective management of financial results. however, this is only possible where enterprise planning and cost accounting is organised according to the direct costing approach, i.e. where all costs are subdivided into fixed costs and variable costs. studies have demonstrated that the profit margin of sold products can be calculated after this formula [14, parmacli d., todorovici l., 2017]: r = p−avc p 𝑓 + avc (8) where: p = selling price, in mdl per 100 kg (metric centner); avc = variable costs per unit, in mdl per 100 kg (metric centner); f = rate of return on fixed costs (i.e. profit divided by fixed costs) if we assume that the selling price of products (p) divided by variable costs per unit (avc) is k = р avc (return on variable costs per unit), then: r = к−1 к 𝑓 +1 (9) the experience of agricultural enterprises in the southern zone of the republic of moldova has confirmed that profit per hectare of area under the crop should be not lower than fixed costs for sustainable reproduction (we will call this profitability level sustainable) and higher than fixed costs for expanding reproduction (a feasible profitability level). the optimal profitability level is the sales profitability level where profit is three-fold of fixed costs. in case of a high profitability level, profit is four-fold of fixed costs. the calculation formulas for the four profitability levels and the expected result are presented in table 3. table 3 sales profitability levels profitability level profitability level symbol profit level formula expected result (profit) sustainable r sus r sus = к−1 к+1 p = fc feasible r feas r feas = к−1 0,5к+1 p = 2fc optimal r opt r opt = к−1 0,333к+1 p = 3fc high r high r high = к−1 0,25к+1 p = 4fc source: table produced by the authors. theoretical and scientifical journal 16 no. 2 / 2019 let us examine the calculations of these profitability levels for 2018 in daalar duzu srl, an agricultural enterprise operating in ceadir lunga region, republic of moldova. the source data is presented in table 4. (the standard rules for classification of costs into fixed costs and variable costs were developed by the economic research institute [15, bajura, t., stratan, a. et al., 2018]). table 5 shows the above-described profitability levels calculated for the said enterprise. it can be concluded from the table that the sustainable profitability level of wheat sales is in the range of 0 to 0.097; the feasible profitability level is in the range of 0.097 to 0.133; the optimal profitability level is in the range between 0.133 and 0.154 and the high profitability level is in the range between 0.154 and 0.166 and higher. a similar calculation can be made for other types of products. it is important to point out that the profit margin growth rate slows down as each next (higher) profitability level (i.e. feasible, optimal, high) is reached. thus, if the ratio between the feasible profitability and the sustainable profitability is 1.618 for wheat sales, the ratio between the optimal profitability and the feasible profitability is only 1.258 and the ratio between the high profitability and the optimal profitability is 1.150. a similar pattern can be identified for other crops. table 4 2018 production and sales of the core crops in daalar duzu srl indicator wheat peas corn sunflowers soy beans selling price (p), mdl per 100 kg 230.60 287.10 273.60 706.20 562.90 fixed costs (fc), mdl per hectare 1124.00 354.00 1235.00 958.00 319.00 variable costs per unit (avc), mdl per 100 kg 189.66 176.13 187.96 326.04 192.57 total costs (z), mdl per 100 kg 219.00 202.0. 216.60 373.50 220.80 rate of return (k) 1.216 1.630 1.456 2.166 2.924 source: form 7-apk and form 9-apk reports of daalar duzu srl for 2018. it should also be pointed out that each type of product has its own set of sustainable or other profitability levels. the reason is different fixed costs and variable costs per unit. for example, the ratio between the rates of return on fixed costs and on variable costs per unit is 2.40 in the production of soy beans and wheat – whereas the ratio between the profit margins for a sustainable, feasible, optimal and high profitability level is respectively: 5.05; 5.87; 6.33 and 6.69. thus, their profitability growth rates increase at each next (higher) sales efficiency level. it should be noted that a full break-even on fixed costs is observed at the profit margin of 9.7% for sales of wheat; 18.6% for corn; 24.0% for peas; as high as 36.8% for sunflower seeds; and 49.0% for soy beans. consequently, it is not possible to assess the efficiency of sales, applying the same profitability levels for grain, sunflower seeds, grapes and other products. different profitability levels should be determined (graded) for each type of sold products in order to assess their efficiency or profitability. this can be done applying the methodology proposed in the foregoing in order to determine their sustainable, feasible, optimal and high profitability levels. table 5 profit margin levels determined for products sold by daalar duzu srl in 2018 profitability level calculated profit margins for wheat peas corn sunflower seeds soy beans sustainable (r sus) 0.097 0.240 0,186 0.368 0.490 feasible (r feas) 0.133 0,347 0.264 0.560 781 optimal (r opt) 0.154 0.409 0.307 0.678 0.975 high (r high) 0.166 0.447 0.334 0.756 1.111 actual (r fact ) 0.053 0.421 0.265 0.891 1,549 profitability assessment sustainable optimal feasible high high source: table produced by the authors. economy and sociology 17 no. 2 / 2019 analysing the actual profitability values of the product sales (table 3), it can be noted that wheat production and sale has the lowest efficiency value assessed as sustainable (the actual profitability of 0.053 is below the sustainable profitability level of 0.097). the efficiency can be assessed as feasible in case of corn sales, as optimal for sales of peas, and as high for sales of sunflower seeds and soy beans. how is the aggregate efficiency assessed for all crop sales in the farm? to answer this question, it is necessary to make calculations applying the methodology presented in table 6. it is very easy and convenient in application. the rate of return on fixed costs for all crops is 2.97 and we can thus assess the aggregate efficiency of product sales as feasible. table 6 the methodology for calculation of the aggregate efficiency of all crop sales in daalar duzu srl in 2018 crop area, ha profit fixed costs rate of return on fixed costs total, mdl thous. mdl per hectare mdl per hectare total, mdl thous. wheat 629 280 445 1125 707.40 0.40 peas 194 226 1165 354 68.70 3.29 corn 535 1319 2465 1235 660.70 2.00 sunflower seeds 526 3537 6724 958 503.90 7.02 soy beans 137 530 3869 319 43.70 12.13 total 2021 5892 2915 982 1984.40 2.97 source: form 7-apk and form 9-apk reports of daalar duzu srl for 2018. by way of illustration, we present the actual data on the 2018 profitability of product sales in daalar duzu srl and assessment thereof in figure 3 and the extent to which the actual profitability of their sales exceeded (fell short of) the high profitability level in figure 4. figure 3. actual profitability of 2018 product sales in daalar duzu srl and assessment thereof source: produced on the basis of table 5. theoretical and scientifical journal 18 no. 2 / 2019 figure 4. the extent to which the actual sales profitability exceeded (fell short of) the high profitability level in daalar duzu srl in 2018 source: produced on the basis of table 5. conclusions the studies have shown that the moderate profitability of products ensures simple reproduction, in which the profit per hectare of sowing should not be lower than the value of fixed costs. enhanced reproduction is provided by three types of profitability: within a rational one, the profit from product sales should exceed 2 times the value of fixed costs. the optimal level should be considered the level of profitability of the products sold, at which the profit is 3 times more than fixed costs. in case of high profitability, profit is 4 times higher than fixed costs. it is important that the functional relationship between the payback coefficient of fixed costs and the profitability ratio of products sold is represented by a simple formula, which greatly simplifies the task of researchers. it should be noted as well that the foregoing will enable agricultural professionals operating with two rates of return (on fixed costs and on variable costs per unit) to determine the sustainable, feasible, optimal and high profitability levels for their sales of grain, sunflower seeds, grapes and other products and to substantiate the expected profit amount on the basis thereof. references 1. pablik, v.p. problemi efektivnogo upravlinnâ silʹskogospodarskimi pidpriestvami. v: ekonomika apk. 2015, № 11, ss. 85-88. н issn 2413-2322; issn 2221-1055. [accesat 23.09.2019]. disponibil: http://eapk.org.ua/sites/default/files/eapk/2015/11/13.pdf 2. špikulâk, o.g., materinsʹka, o.a., mazur, g.f. efektivnistʹ virobnictva zerna silʹskogospodarsʹkimi pidpriemstvami: teoretiko-metodologičnij aspekt. в: ekonomika apk. 2014, № 12, ss. 42-49. issn 2413-2322; issn 2221-1055. [accesat 23.09.2019]. disponibil: http://eapk.org.ua/sites/default/files/eapk/14_12_42-49.pdf 3. rasskazova, а., ždanova, r. osnovnye ponâtiâ èkonomičeskoj èffektivnosti upravleniâ ustojčivym zemlepolʹzovaniem. v: meždunarodnyj selʹskohozâjstvennyj žurnal. 2017, №1 2017, ss. 23-25. issn 2587-6740. 4. siptic, s. metody proektirovaniâ èffektivnyh i ustojčivyh variantov razmeŝeniâ selʹskohozâjstvennogo proizvodstva. v: meždunarodnyj selʹskohozâjstvennyj žurnal. 2017, № 6, ss. 56-59. issn 2587-6740. 5. romanenko, i.a., evdokimova, n.e. cenologičeskij podhod pri analize ustojčivosti razmeŝeniâ selʹskogo hozâjstva po regionam россии. v: meždunarodnyj selʹskohozâjstvennyj žurnal. 2017, № 6, ss. 60-63. issn 2587-6740. http://eapk.org.ua/sites/default/files/eapk/2015/11/13.pdf http://eapk.org.ua/sites/default/files/eapk/14_12_42-49.pdf economy and sociology 19 no. 2 / 2019 6. altuhov, а.i. soveršenstvovanie organizacionno-èkonomičeskogo mehanizma ustojčivogo razvitiâ agropromyšlennogo proizvodstva. v: èkonomika selʹskoho-zâjstvennyh i pererabatyvaûŝih predpriâtij. 2016, №7, ss. 2-11. issn 0235-2494. 7. hotărîrea guvernului cu privire la aprobarea strategiei de dezvoltare a sectorului agroalimentar în perioada anilor 2006-2015: nr. 1199 din 17.10.2006. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2006, nr. 170-173, art. 1312. [accesat 23.09.2019]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=318200 8. timofti, e., popa, d. eficienţa mecanismului economic în sectorul agrar: monografie. chişinău: complexul editorial al iefs, 2009. 343 p. isbn 978-9975-9823-3-7. 9. parmakli, d., todorič, l. problemy èkonomičeskoj ustojčivosti selʹskoho-zâjstvennyh predpriâtij respubliki moldova: monografiâ. komrat: tipogr. "centrografic, 2013. 207 с. isbn 9975-9751-8-6. 10. dudoglo, t.d. uprevlenie zemelʹnym potencialom regiona: voprosy teorii, metodiki, praktiki: monografiâ. komrat: tipogr. "centrografic, 2017. 167 с. isbn 978-9975-3132-3-0. 11. parmakli, d.m., dudoglo, т.d. urožajnostʹ i pribylʹ: metodologičeskie aspekty. in: creșterea economică în condițiile globalizării = economic growth in conditions of globalization: international conference on theoretical and applied economic practices, october 13-14 2016. 11-th edition. chișinău, 2016, vol. 1, pp. 282-286. isbn 978-9975-4185-9-9. 12. parmakli, d.м. metodika gradacii urovnej urožajnosti i zon èffektivnosti produkcii rastenievodstva. v: apk: èkonomika, upravlenie. 2016, №3, ss. 86-91. issn 0235-2443. 13. anuarul statistic al republicii moldova = statističeskij ežegodnik respubliki moldova = statistical yearbook of the republic of moldova 2018. chișinău, 2018. 465 p. isbn 978-997553-418-5. 14. parmakli, d.m., todorič, l.p. i dr. produktivnostʹ zemli v selʹskom hozâjstve: èkonomičeskaâ teoriâ i hozâjstvennaâ praktika: monografiâ. komratskij gosudarstvennyj universitet, naučno-issledovatelʹskij centr «progress». komrat: tipografia "centrografic, 2017. 242 p. isbn 978-9975-3132-7-8. 15. bajura, t., stratan, a. et al. tarife de costuri în agricultură: ghid practice. chișinău: ince, 2018. 164 p. isbn 978-9975-3202-5-2. article history received 12 november 2019 accepted 28 november 2019 http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=318200 how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 110 june no. 1/2021 development of regional labour markets in conditions of decentralization lidiia tkachenko1 phd in economics, senior researcher m.v. ptukha institute of demography and social research of the national academy of sciences of ukraine, ukraine doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-10 jel classification: h70, j21, j68, r58 czu: 331.5 abstract the decentralization reform in ukraine began in 2014 and is aimed at implementing the provisions of the european charter of local self-government, which provides for the redistribution of powers, resources and responsibilities on the basis of subsidiarity. currently, local governments are endowed with powers and instruments of influence on enterprises located on their territory, but employment and labour market policies remains the prerogative of the central government. for a comparative analysis of the development of regional labour markets in the context of decentralization, labour force survey indicators are more appropriate, since they reflect the actual policy results from the perspective of households. for the 2015–2019 period in most regions of ukraine, there was an increase in the level of employment and a decrease in the level of unemployment; at the same time, the gender gap in employment has increased in 16 of 25 regions; the sectoral structure of employment continues to stagnate. some regions have significantly increased the coverage of public works, but this may indicate not the activity of territorial communities, but the lack of stable employment opportunities. local selfgovernment bodies should play a key role in the formation and implementation of local employment and the labour market policies, their interaction with the state employment service requiring a corresponding transformation. keywords: labour market, regional development, local government, labour market policy, employment, unemployment, public works. reforma descentralizării din ucraina a început în 2014 și are drept scop punerea în aplicare a prevederilor cartei europene a autonomiei locale, care prevede redistribuirea competențelor, resurselor și responsabilităților pe baza subsidiarității. în prezent, guvernele locale sunt dotate cu puteri și instrumente de influență asupra întreprinderilor situate pe teritoriul lor, însă politicile de ocupare a forței de muncă și de piață a muncii rămân a fi o prerogativă a guvernului central. pentru o analiză comparativă a dezvoltării piețelor muncii regionale în contextul descentralizării, indicatorii anchetei privind forța de muncă sunt mai adecvați, întrucât reflectă rezultatele actuale ale politicii din perspectiva gospodăriilor. pentru perioada 2015–2019 în majoritatea regiunilor din ucraina, a existat o creștere a nivelului de ocupare și o scădere a nivelului de șomaj; în același timp, diferența de gen în ocuparea forței de muncă a crescut în 16 din 25 de regiuni; structura sectorială a ocupării forței de muncă continuă să stagneze. în unele regiuni a crescut semnificativ încadrarea în lucrărilor publice, dar acest lucru indică mai degrabă activitatea comunităților teritoriale și lipsa unor oportunități de angajare stabile. organismele locale de auto-guvernare ar trebui să joace un rol cheie în formarea și implementarea politicilor de ocupare a forței de muncă locale și a pieței forței de muncă, interacțiunea lor cu serviciul de ocupare a forței de muncă de stat necesitând o transformare semnificativă. cuvinte cheie: piața muncii, dezvoltare regională, administrația locală, politica pieței muncii, ocuparea forței de muncă, șomaj, lucrări publice. 11 id orcid 0000-0002-6352-6398 e-mail: lidiia1tkachenko@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6352-6398 mailto:lidiia1tkachenko@gmail.com economy and sociology 111 june no. 1/2021 реформа децентрализации в украине началась в 2014 г. и направлена на имплементацию положений европейской хартии местного самоуправления, которая предусматривает перераспределение полномочий, ресурсов и ответственности по принципу субсидиарности. сейчас органы местного самоуправления уже наделены полномочиями и инструментами воздействия на предприятия, расположенные на их территории, но политика занятости и рынка труда остается прерогативой центральных органов власти. для сравнительного анализа развития региональных рынков труда в условиях децентрализации более приемлемы показатели обследования рабочей силы, поскольку они отражают фактические результаты политики с позиции домохозяйств. за период 2015–2019 гг. в большинстве регионов украины наблюдались рост уровня занятости и снижение уровня безработицы; в то же время в 16 из 25 регионов увеличился гендерный разрыв по уровню занятости; секторальная структура занятости продолжает стагнировать. некоторые регионы значительно нарастили охват общественными работами, однако это может свидетельствовать не об активности территориальных единиц, а об отсутствии возможностей стабильного трудоустройства. органы местного самоуправления должны играть ключевую роль в формировании и реализации локальной политики занятости и рынка труда, соответствующей трансформации требует их взаимодействие с государственной службой занятости. ключевые слова: рынок труда, региональное развитие, местное самоуправление, политика рынка труда, занятость, безработица, общественные работы. introduction decentralization is one of the key european integration reforms, launched in 2014 after the association agreement between ukraine and the eu was signed. the reform is aimed at implementing the provisions of the european charter of local self-government and involves the transfer of a significant part of powers, resources and responsibility from central executive authorities to local self-government bodies that are in close proximity to the inhabitants of a territory. the redistribution of functions based on the principle of subsidiarity should provide residents with mechanisms and tools to influence local authorities and participate in decision-making. at the basic level, the institution of local self-government is that of united territorial communities (“hromady”), which are then combined into larger ones (hereinafter referred to as “hromady”). in 2014–2019 the formation and unification of the hromady proceeded on a voluntary basis, beginning with 2020 according to long-term plans approved by the government. one way or the other, decentralization, encompasses all spheres of activity and politics, changing the balance of power and priorities in markets and in society. the labour market is at the intersection of economic, demographic and social factors; therefore, the impact of decentralization requires analysis and improvement of regional employment and the labour market policies. literature review the experience of the hromada formation and activity is the focus of research by ukrainian scientists and analysts. the attention of specialists in the field of labour economics and social economics is focused, first of all, on identifying new risks for the development of regional labour markets associated with decentralization. such risks are most often called by t he following factors (benovska, 2019; libanova, 2017; rоmanyuk, 2019): ❖ the formation and unification of hromady is often formal in nature, without initiative and without a vision on new opportunities for local economic and social development; ❖ the behaviour of hromady is dominated by a consumerist approach, they are much more focused on receiving subsidies and subventions from higher-level budgets than on increasing economic activity on their territory; ❖ socio-economic disproportions are aggravated not only between regions but also within regions and districts; in particular, the concentration of economic activity in large cities is accelerating, while, at the same time there is a decline and desolation in small towns and villages; theoretical and scientifical journal 112 june no. 1/2021 ❖ the structural imbalance between supply and demand in local labour markets is growing, as a result of which unemployment increasingly exists in parallel with a shortage of personnel; ❖ the intensity of all types of labour migrations is increasing, starting with daily commuting and ending with long foreign ones; migrant workers travel is becoming a routine employment model; ❖ enterprises and individuals entrepreneurs are increasingly choosing a place of registration based on the favourable conditions of local taxation, as a result of which the asymmetry between the fiscal and social aspects of the policy is growing; ❖ in the formation of policy, a clear "top-down" administrative vertical line is preserved, which determines a formal-declarative approach to the development of local development programs, measures for their implementation and monitoring of performance. a survey of territorial hromady of four regions of the carpathian area (kravciv & instytut rehional’nych doslidžen’, 2013), conducted in november 2018, showed that only 11% of hromady developed a program or action plan in employment. some of them used the old employment programs, which were adopted even before the formation of the hromada without considering the new conditions. even those hromady that developed their own employment program or plan did not consider the real data on the available labour potential. among surveyed hromady, 2/3 did not have data on the age composition of the population, 1/3 did not have information on the number of officially employed persons, 1/5 did not know the number of locally registered individuals entrepreneurs. most often, the activity of hromady on labour market issues was limited to a r ather formal interaction with the local state employment centre (72% of the surveyed communities), 56% of communities taking part in the organization of public works. at the same time, almost all communities noted that limited opportunities for official employment on their territory constitute a problem for community development. an important area of research is also the improvement of tools for measuring and assessing the dynamics of regional labour markets. most often the following indicators are taken for comparative analysis: the employment rate, the unemployment rate, the rates of accepting and quitting of regular staff at enterprises, the scale of underemployment and informal employment, employment in harmful conditions and industrial injuries, the size of the average monthly wage of regular staff of enterprises and the declared salary in vacancies, performance indicators of the state employment service, including the number and structure of vacancies, the number of registered unemployed per vacancy (bilyk & filipchuk, 2019; шаульська & кримова, f.a.). the quarterly monitoring of regional socio-economic development (ministry of communities and territories development of ukraine 2020) contains 60 indicators in 12 areas, including the “labour market efficiency” block of four indicators: the unemployment rate according to the ilo methodology, the level of employment, the real wage index and the amount of wage arrears as a percentage of the wages fund. a review of research shows that in ukraine, in the context of decentralization, employment is viewed primarily as a component of the financial solvency of the local budget and the investment attractiveness of the territory, whereas issues of employment and unemployment are viewed as part of the state employment service activity. the social role of employment and the role of communities in employment policy are greatly underestimated. the eu's regional policy aims at cohesion and harmonize development, and it is on this basis that it allows to combine job creation, competitive business, economic growth, sustainable development and improving the quality of life for people from all regions, cities and ru ral areas. cohesion policy involves supporting local development initiatives and empowering local governments to manage funds (eu budget, 2018). thanks to this approach, employment and labour market policies is strongly represented at all management levels. in countries with a high level of local decentralization (poland, belgium, denmark, the netherlands, spain), the public employment service is part of regional self-government bodies and does not belong to the governmental executive vertical. this makes it possible to bring the labour market policy as close as possible to local conditions and needs, to establish specific local tasks and target groups. the disadvantage of fully decentralizing public employment services is represented economy and sociology 113 june no. 1/2021 by the difficulty to obtain integrated information on the provision of consulting services and active labour market policy measures across the country as a whole(european commission. directorate general for employment, social affairs and inclusion. & icon institut., 2016) . in countries where the public employment service is an autonomous public institution (france, austria, germany, greece, finland), there is also a tendency towards the decentralization of activities at local level. for example, in germany, the 2003 reform at the local level created public employment agencies (that serve applicants with an unemployment duration of less than one year) and public job centres (that serve long-term unemployed), which closely interact with municipalities. this decentralization of functions and management allowed for a personalized, customer-centric approach, which reduced the average duration of unemployment and increased customer satisfaction for both job-seekers and employers (finn et al., f.a.). in countries where the public employment service is a centralized structure subordinate to the ministry (ireland, uk) or government (hungary, sweden), there is also a tendency to deepen cooperation with local authorities. for example, the uk initiated the expansion of the standard service package with additional services (jobcentre plus), which facilitate a quick return to work thanks to the established local funds and tools. cooperation also takes the form of joining the efforts of the public employment service with local social services to develop joint programs and deliver services tailored to the local situation and needs. data and methods the situation on the labour market depends on the intersection of many factors, therefore, it is not possible to separately measure exclusively the impact of decentralization. based on th e objectives of the analysis, preference is given to indicators that characterize the social role of employment and, at least at the legislative level, provide for the significant participation and responsibility of local governments for employment and labour market policies. the current national legislation refers to the powers of local self -government bodies as general administrative measures (preparation of programs for socio-economic development, etc.) (verkhovna rada of ukraine 1997). although local governments are endowed with powers and instruments of influence on enterprises located on their territory, comprehensive regional policy, employment and labour market policies remain the prerogative of the state and central executive authorities. regional development strategies, territorial and local employment programs are fully subordinated to the main directions and principles of state policy, local state administrations are responsible for their development and implementation (verkhovna rada of u kraine 2012 and 2015). local self-government bodies in these processes have rather a coordinating and supportive role, being mentioned last in the list of entities responsible for implementation. the only labour market policy measure where local governments play a significant role are public works, which by definition are a type of socially useful paid work in the interests of a territorial community. the practical involvement of local governments in organizing public works was facilitated by the establishment, in 2013, of the principle of parity of their funding from local budgets and funds from the fund of compulsory state social insurance against of unemployment (cabinet of ministers of ukraine 2013). this prompted the territorial employment centres, which are strictly subordinate to the central vertical of power, to establish a more effective interaction with local authorities. in the crisis conditions of 2015, the requirement for parity funding was cancelled, since the lack of funds from local budgets called into question the conduct of public works, but, at least, the tradition of complicity was established. taking into account the existing distribution of powers, the data of the state employment service and other administrative data rather characterize the activities of the central executive authorities in the implementation of national policy. an exception here is the information on public works, the organization and financing of which are carried out with the active participation of local governments. for a comparative analysis of the development of regional labour markets, data from labour force surveys are much more informative, since they reflect not indicators of activity, but the actual results of socio-economic policy in a given region, and this information is obtained from households, that is, directly from participants on the labour market. the capabilities of this source also have limitations. first, the theoretical and scientifical journal 114 june no. 1/2021 survey methodology is clearly regulated and assumes a fairly standard set of statistical indicators. secondly, when analysing in a regional context, the problem of data reliability arises. in particular, data on the unemployment rate in almost all regions have an error estimate of more than 10%, which limits their use for quantitative analysis (state statistics service of ukraine 2020). some researchers offer integral indices that allow synthesizing the content of a set of indicators and ranking regions by the value of the index and sub -indices (bobukh & shchehel, 2019). however, for operational monitoring and management decisions, one still needs to focus on the initial values of the indicators, and there should not be many of these indicat ors. considering existing sources of regular and reliable data, developments of national researchers and foreign experience (eurostat, 2019) of socio-economic analysis of regional development, this work uses indicators such as those from table 1. table 1 list of indicators for a comparative analysis of the regional labour markets development in the context of decentralization indicator name, measurement unit definition or formula for calculating an indicator data source employment rate,% share of employed persons in total population aged 15– 70 labour force research unemployment rate, % share of unemployed persons in labour force aged 15 – 70 labour force research employment gender gap, percentage points difference between employment rates of women and men labour force research sectoral employment structure share of employed persons by sectors of economy based on national classifier for economic activities kved 2010 (analogue of nace rev.2) labour force research coverage of unemployed with public works,% share of registered unemployed persons who were involved in public works during the year state employment centre source: own compilation. the base year for comparison is 2015, when the implementation of decentralization began. the last reporting year for which a complete set of statistical indicators is available is 2019. in addition, in 2019, the first stage of decentralization was completed, in which territorial communities were formed and united on a voluntary basis. the dynamics of regional indicators and interregional differentiation for 2015–2019 allow you to assess the scale and consistency of changes at the stage of hromada formation. research results and discussions employment rate and unemployment rate characterize the implementation of the labour supply, reflecting the regional potential for economic growth and the availability of the labour market. employment opportunities and a choice of jobs are the key to the social well-being of the region's residents. on the contrary, a high unemployment rate can be an indicator of depressed areas. in 2015–2019 in the regions of ukraine, there was a heterogeneous dynamic of the levels of employment and unemployment, which may be, among other things, a consequence of the decentralization process. in most regions, there was an increase in employment, most significantly in the khmelnytskiy, luhansk, sumy, chernivtsi (more than +4 percentage points in each region) and zhytomyr (+3 percentage points) regions. at the same time, employment decreased in the volyn (-2.2 percentage points), dnipropetrovsk (-1.4), zakarpattya (-0.8) regions (fig. 1) economy and sociology 115 june no. 1/2021 figure 1. employment and unemployment rates of population aged 15-70 by regions of ukraine in 2015 and 2019, % source: based on data from state statistics service of ukraine 2020. the unemployment rate grew, although insignificantly, in four regions volyn, vinnytsya, dnipropetrovsk and mykolayiv. moreover, in the volyn and dnipropetrovsk regions, the increase in unemployment occurred against the background of a decrease in employment. the greatest success in reducing the unemployment rate was achieved by the sumy, chernivtsi, khmelnytskiy, kharkiv regions (a decrease of more than 2 percentage points). it should be noted that zhytomyr, khmelnytskiy, volyn, dnipropetrovsk regions were leaders in the rating of regions in terms of the hromada formation rate (моніторинг процесу децентралізації, f.a.), but this was reflected in the levels of employment and unemployment in very different ways. in general, there is a logical pattern that the most significant decrease in the unemployment rate occurred in regions where there was a significant increase in the employment rate, while in regions with a higher level of employment, there is a lower unemployment rate. employment gender gap characterizes the situation with the equality of opportunities for women and men in the labour market. in virtually all countries of the world, the employment rate for men is higher than the one for women, as women bear a greater burden of maternal and family responsibilities. therefore, when analysing this indicator, the main attention is paid to the direction of the trend (with the right policy, the gender gap should be reduced), as well as interregional comparison. for 2015–2019 in 16 out of 25 regions of ukraine, the gender gap in terms of employment increased (fig. 2). the largest growth occurred in the zakarpattya region (twice), the mykolayiv and luhansk regions (by half in each), ivano-frankivsk and chernivtsi regions (by a quarter in each). as a result, in 2019, the zakarpattya, ivano-frankivsk and chernivtsi regions became “leaders” in terms of the size of the gender gap (almost 20 percentage points). the largest reduction in the gender gap in terms of employment took place in rivne, lviv, vinnytsya, kharkiv regions. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 v in n y ts y a v o ly n d n ip ro p e tr o v sk d o n e ts k z h y to m y r z a k a rp a tt y a z a p o ri z h z h y a iv a n o -f ra n k iv sk k y iv k ir o v o h ra d l u h a n sk l v iv m y k o la y iv o d e sa p o lt a v a r iv n e s u m y t e rn o p il k h a rk iv k h e rs o n k h m e ln y ts k iy c h e rk a sy c h e rn iv ts i c h e rn ih iv c it y o f k y iv % employment 2015 employment 2019 unemployment 2015 unemployment 2019 theoretical and scientifical journal 116 june no. 1/2021 figure 2. gender gap in the employment rate of the population aged 15-70 by regions of ukraine in 2015 and 2019, % source: based on state statistics service of ukraine 2020. interregional differentiation of the gender gap in terms of employment may be associated not only with the lack of jobs for women or the specifics of the sectoral structure of employment (spread of informal employment, labour migration, etc.), but also with the (in) accessibility of early childhood development infrastructure. sectorial employment structure characterizes the level of productivity and conditions of employment, for example, the opportunity to have a stable job with official registration, decent wages and a social package. the industry sector provides predominantly stable, qualified, formal wage employment with wages significantly higher than the national average. disadvantages of employment in this sector usually include tight working hours and risks of harmful working conditions. in ukraine, industrial centres located mainly in the eastern regions dnipropetrovsk, donetsk, zaporizhzhya, kharkiv, luhansk, as well as kiev and poltava regions have formed historically. the share of industrial employment in these regions is over 15%. the smallest specific weight (less than 10%) is occupied by the industrial sector in the structure of employment in the odesa, kherson, ternopil regions and the city of kiev (table 2). the business services sector includes three types of economic activities: information and telecommunications (section j), professional, scientific and technical activities (section m), activities in the field of administrative and support services (section n according to nace-2010). this sector is highly innovative, capable of providing high quality employment with motivation to learn (high-level group on business services 2014). however, in ukraine, hired labour in this sector is often disguised as selfemployment in the status of individuals entrepreneurs, or is carried out in atypical conditions (freelancing, etc.). as a consequence, employment flexibility translates into weak social protection. in terms of the structural share of employment in the business services sector, the city of kyiv is by far the leader (over 20%), which is explained by the status of the capital. among the regions, a significant percentage of employment in the business services sector comes to kyiv, kharkiv, dnipropetrovsk regions (7-9%). this sector is least represented in the zakarpattya and chernivtsi regions (less than 3%). 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 v in n y ts y a v o ly n d n ip ro p e tr o v sk d o n e ts k z h y to m y r z a k a rp a tt y a z a p o ri z h z h y a iv a n o -f ra n k iv sk k y iv k ir o v o h ra d l u h a n sk l v iv m y k o la y iv o d e sa p o lt a v a r iv n e s u m y t e rn o p il k h a rk iv k h e rs o n k h m e ln y ts k iy c h e rk a sy c h e rn iv ts i c h e rn ih iv c it y o f k y iv % 2015 2019 economy and sociology 117 june no. 1/2021 table 2 share of employment in selected sectors of economy by regions of ukraine in 2015 and 2019,% sector→ industry business services public services sections of nace1→ b+c+d+e j+м+n o+p+q+r regions 2015 2019 2015 2019 2015 2019 vinnytsya 11 11 4 3 23 21 volyn 13 14 3 3 26 25 dnipropetrovsk 25 24 6 7 19 18 donetsk 33 26 5 5 19 19 zhytomyr 14 15 5 4 26 23 zakarpattya 11 11 2 2 21 20 zaporizhzhya 22 22 5 5 21 18 ivano-frankivsk 12 12 4 3 22 20 kyiv 18 18 9 9 26 23 kirovohrad 13 13 3 4 24 22 luhansk 31 19 4 5 19 18 lviv 14 15 6 6 25 22 mykolayiv 13 13 3 3 21 20 odesa 8 8 6 6 23 21 poltava 18 17 4 4 23 20 rivne 13 13 4 3 23 21 sumy 16 14 4 4 23 21 ternopil 9 9 3 3 26 22 kharkiv 19 19 7 7 21 19 kherson 9 9 4 3 24 21 khmelnytskiy 12 12 3 3 25 22 cherkasy 14 14 4 4 21 19 chernivtsi 10 11 3 3 22 19 chernihiv 12 12 4 4 25 24 city of kyiv 8 8 20 21 23 22 source: based on state statistics service of ukraine 2020. the public services sector includes economic activities dominated by budgetary and non-profit institutions that provide services such as: public administration and defence; compulsory social insurance (section o), education (section p), health and social assistance (section q), arts, sports, entertainment and recreation (section r according to nace-2010). these services are provided to the population directly at the local level and play a key role in human development opportunities. as a field of employment, this sector usually provides a stable job with formalization and a full package of social protection. at the same time, the level of wages in the public sector of the social sphere remains almost the lowest of all types of economic activity. since government or sectoral policies play an important role in the public services sector, regional differentiation in the share of employment in this sector is less pronounced. the regions with a predominance of the population of large cities have the lowest share, where it is possible to use the public infrastructure network more efficiently due to the density of settlement. in 2015–2019 structural shifts in the sectors of industry and business services are almost imperceptible, while the share of employment in the public services sector has decreased in all 1 nace – classifier of economic activities theoretical and scientifical journal 118 june no. 1/2021 regions by 1-3 percentage points, which is a consequence of government reforms to "optimize" the infrastructure network. coverage of unemployed with public works characterizes the level of cooperation between local governments and the state employment service. it should be remembered that public works are a temporary form of employment and do not solve the problem of finding a suitable job and stable employment. this is why most eu countries do not practice public works at all, with the exception of greece, ireland, italy and new member states (anna manoudi 2014). for the period 2015–2019 the level of coverage of registered unemployed with public works decreased in five regions (sumy, cherkasy, lviv, poltava, ternopil), in three it remained unchanged (vinnytsya, rivne and khmelnytskiy), in other regions, there was an increase (fig. 3). the most rapid growth was observed in donetsk (from 13% in 2015 to 54% in 2019) and luhansk (from 14% to 31%) regions, which have a high unemployment rate. this means that the interpretation of this indicator is rather contradictory. on the one hand, the high coverage of public works testifies to the active position of local self-government bodies, on the other hand, to the unfavourable situation in the labour market and the lack of reliable employment opportunities. figure 3. coverage of registered unemployed persons with public services by regions of ukraine in 2015 and 2019, as % of total registered unemployed source: based on the website of the “state employment center of ukraine”. url: https://www.dcz.gov.ua/storinka/vidkryti-dani summarizing the analysis of the indicators, it should be noted that with the start of the decentralization reform, not so much time has passed for its advantages to become obvious in such a delicate and multifactorial substance as the labour market. nevertheless, it is safe to say that several regions have been able to significantly improve their performance. and these are not only regions that previously demonstrated success (kharkiv, kyiv regions), but also regions that were considered economically depressed for a long time sumy, cherkasy, zhytomyr regions. conclusions study results make it possible to substantiate the following new directions of regional development policy: ❖ to expand the powers of local self-government bodies in the formation and implementation of employment and labour market policies, in particular, transfer the local employment policy to the list of their own powers and delegate powers to participate in the implementation of the national employment and labour market policy; ❖ to adapt the organizational and managerial model of the state employment service to the conditions of decentralization, to provide for more flexibility and freedom in the formation of local target programs and instruments of active labour market policy, for example, for vocational training 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 v in n y ts y a v o ly n d n ip ro p e tr o v sk d o n e ts k z h y to m y r z a k a rp a tt y a z a p o ri z h z h y a iv a n o -f ra n k iv sk k y iv k ir o v o h ra d l u h a n sk l v iv m y k o la y iv o d e sa p o lt a v a r iv n e s u m y t e rn o p il k h a rk iv k h e rs o n k h m e ln y ts k iy c h e rk a sy c h e rn iv ts i c h e rn ih iv c it y o f k y iv % 2015 2019 https://www.dcz.gov.ua/storinka/vidkryti-dani economy and sociology 119 june no. 1/2021 and integration of vulnerable groups of the population with the involvement of resources of territorial communities; ❖ to supplement the directions of local employment policy with new target groups. since depopulation takes place in ukraine and the working-age population is rapidly declining, pension reform measures, such as raising the retirement age, limiting early retirement, and linking the age of granting a pension to the criteria for the length of service, become a source of maintaining the labour force. this means that local employment and labour market policies need to be oriented not only towards young people, as is the case now, but also to older people. further research is needed in the direction of improving the system of development indicators and developing an institutional model for regulating regional labour markets in the context of decentralization. references 1. benovska, l. (2019). strengthening the differentiation of the development of territorial communities as a risk of decentralization reform. regional economy, 1(91), 24–30. https://doi.org/10.36818/1562-0905-2019-1-3 2. bilyk, r., & filipchuk, n. (2019). problems of economic security and regions’ competitiveness in conditions of decentralization. regional economy, 4(94), 53–63. https://doi.org/10.36818/15620905-2019-4-4 3. bobukh, i., & shchehel, s. (2019). inclusive development of ukrainian regions: assessment, rankings and prospects. regional economy, 4(94), 36–52. https://doi.org/10.36818/1562-0905-2019-4-3 4. eu budget: regional development and cohesion policy beyond 2020. (2018, mai 29). [text]. european commission european commission. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_18_3885 5. european commission. directorate general for employment, social affairs and inclusion. & icon institut. (2016). assessment report on pes capacity: 2016. publications office. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2767/861018 6. eurostat, d. e. (2019). adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita (2010-2019). http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=tec00113&lang=en 7. finn, d., peromingo, m., & mwasikakata, o. m. (f.a.). key developments, role and organization of public employment services. 140. 8. kravciv, v. s., & instytut rehional’nych doslidžen’ (ed.). (2013). karpatsʹkyj rehion: aktualʹni problemy ta perspektyvy rozvytku: monohrafija u 8 tomach. nan ukraïny, instytut rehional’nych doslidžen’. 9. libanova, e. m. (2017). li︠u︡dsʹkyĭ rozvytok v ukraïni: instytut︠s︡iĭne pidgrunti︠a︡ sot︠s︡ialʹnoï vidpovidalʹnosti : kolektyvna monohrafii︠a︡. 10. rоmanyuk, s. a. (2019). regional development in ukraine: past, today. future? demography and social economy, 1(3), 113–132. https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2019.03.113 11. моніторинг процесу децентралізації. (f.a.). preluat în 24 iunie 2021, din https://decentralization.gov.ua/mainmonitoring 12. шаульська, л. в., & кримова, м. о. (f.a.). стан ринку праці в контексті стратегії розвитку людського капіталу р. preluat în 24 iunie 2021, din http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:supjevualauj:www.irbisnbuv.gov.ua/cgibin/irbis_nbuv/cgiirbis_64.exe%3fc21com%3d2%26i21dbn%3dujrn%26p21dbn%3dujrn% 26image_file_download%3d1%26image_file_name%3dpdf/rpzn_2018_2_5.pdf+&cd=2&hl=r o&ct=clnk&gl=md article history received 01 april 2020 accepted 20 may 2021 economy and sociology 53 no. 1 / 2020 efficiency of subsidies allocation to agricultural enterprises in the republic of moldova ina dombrovschi1, phd in economics, state agrarian university of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-05 jel classification: h25, j43, e22, q12, q14, q18 udc: 631.155.6(478) abstract as the republic of moldova has limited opportunities to provide generous financial support to farmers, it is extremely important to efficiently use subsidy means, so as to contribute to the development and modernization of agriculture and rural areas. the development of agriculture in a dynamic way can be achieved on the basis of an efficient subsidy system, administered, monitored and evaluated. the aim of the research is to analyse and evaluate the efficiency and impact of subsidization on the development of the agricultural sector and to ensure a stable increase in agricultural production, emphasizing main support measures in this direction. to carry out this study, various research methods were used, such as: observation method, table method, analysis and synthesis method, comparison method, monographic method, statistical data collection. this article presents an analysis of the evolution of the subsidy fund for agricultural producers, which has increased 2.25 times in the last 7 years. there has also been analysed the structure of beneficiaries of subsidies according to the legal organizational form, who received subsidies during the reference period. it has been found that households are in the top of beneficiaries of subsidies who had a share of 62.03% in 2018. the distribution of subsidies by development regions and per one hectare of agricultural land in the profile of development regions has been studied and it has been found that the predominant share is held by agricultural enterprises in the centre region, about 38.9% of the means of the subsidy fund. the results of the research show an increase in the subsidy level, through support measures. in this context, we can mention that the support measures must ensure an efficient use of the subsidies. keywords: financial result, efficiency, subsidies, investments, subsidy fund, support measures, subsidy means. în condițiile în care republica moldova are posibilități limitate de a acorda un suport financiar generos agricultorilor, este extrem de important utilizarea eficientă a mijloacelor de subvenționare, astfel, încât să contribuie la dezvoltarea și modernizarea agriculturii și spațiului rural. dezvoltarea agriculturii pe cale dinamică poate fi realizată în baza unui sistem eficient de subvenționare, administrat, monitorizat şi evaluat. scopul cercetării constă în analiza și evaluarea eficienței și impactului subvenționării asupra dezvoltării sectorului agricol și asigurării unei creșteri stabile a producției agricole, accentuând în această direcție principalele măsuri de sprijin. pentru realizarea acestui studiu s-a apelat la diverse metode de cercetare precum: metoda observării, metoda tabelelor, metoda de analiză și sinteză, metoda comparațiilor, metoda monografică, preluarea statistică a datelor. în prezentul articol, se regăsește o analiză a evoluției fondului de subvenționare a producătorilor agricoli, care, în ultimii 7 ani, a înregistrat o creștere de 2,25 ori. de asemenea, s-a analizat structura beneficiarilor de subvenții după forma organizatorică juridică, ce au accesat subvenții în perioada de referință, se constată că gospodăriile țărănești sunt în topul beneficiarilor de subvenții care, în anul 2018 dețin o cotă de 62,03%. a fost studiată repartiția subvențiilor pe regiuni de dezvoltare și la un hectar de teren agricol în profilul regiunilor de dezvoltare și s-a constatat că cota preponderentă o dețin întreprinderile agricole din regiunea centru, circa 38,9% din mijloacele fondului de subvenționare. rezultatele cercetării constată o creștere a nivelului de subvenționare, prin intermediul măsurilor de sprijin. în acest context menționăm, că măsurile de sprijin trebuie să asigure o utilizare eficientă a mijloacelor de subvenționare. cuvinte-cheie: rezultat financiar, eficiență, subvenții, investiții, fond de subvenționare, măsuri de sprijin, mijloace de subvenționare. 1 © ina dombrovschi, dombrovschi@mail.ru theoretical and scientifical journal 54 no. 1 / 2020 в условиях, когда республика молдова имеет ограниченные возможности предоставления значительной финансовой помощи фермерам, очень важно использовать дотации эффективно, чтобы повлиять на развития и модернизацию сельского хозяйства и сельской местности. развитие сельского хозяйства в динамике можно осуществить на основе эффективной системы дотаций, управляемой, наблюдаемой и оценённой. цель исследования состоит в анализе и оценки эффективности и влиянии дотаций на развитие сельского хозяйства и обеспечения стабильного роста сельскохозяйственной продукции, акцентируя в этом направлении основные меры поддержки. в данном исследовании были использованы различные методы: наблюдение, метод таблиц, метод анализа и синтеза, метод сравнений, монографический метод, статистическая обработка данных. был осуществлен анализ эволюции фонда дотаций сельскохозяйственных производителей, который в последние 7 лет зарегистрировал рост в 2,25 раза. также, был сделан анализ структуры бенефициаров дотаций по организационно-юридической форме, где установлено что фермерские хозяйства в 2018 году удерживают 62,03%. было исследовано распределение дотаций по регионам развития и на гектар сельскохозяйственных площадей в профиле регионов развития и установлено что наибольшую долю удерживают сельскохозяйственные предприятия из региона центр (38,9% из средств фонда дотаций). результаты исследования показывают рост уровня дотаций, как меры поддержки. важно подчеркнуть, что меры поддержки должны обеспечить эффективное использование средств дотаций. ключевые слова: финансовый результат, эффективность, дотации, инвестиции, фонд дотаций, меры поддержки, средства дотаций. introduction the major objective of agricultural enterprises is determined by the ever-increasing requirements of the population and of the processing industry for agricultural products, and also by the economic and financial results. the achievement of the objective in question is conditioned by the pursuit of a profitable activity based on a reasoned system of state support. this support system is manifested by the allocation of subsidies from the state budget to stimulate investment in the agricultural sector. subsidies are a form of government support for agricultural enterprises and households to supplement their incomes, stimulate the production of agricultural products and influence the cost of these products, and subsidies are a considerable source of coverage for agricultural production costs. the issue of subsidizing the agricultural sector has recently become relevant in the republic of moldova, being addressed in various scientific papers of local researchers. among the local researchers who studied this subject we can mention tomița p., litvin a., cimpoieș l. and others (tomița 2013; litvin 2013; cimpoieș 2013). the mentioned authors referred to the issues related to the structure and role of the subsidy, to the targeting of support measures, as well as to the aspects of the subsidy in the republic of moldova in correlation with other european countries. but at the same time, we consider it necessary to argue the effectiveness of the means of subsidization in agricultural enterprises. based on the above, the aim of the research is to analyze and evaluate the efficiency and impact of subsidization on the development of the agricultural sector and to ensure a stable increase in agricultural production, emphasizing the main support measures in this direction. data sources and methods used the informational and statistical support of the investigations was provided by the legislative acts of the republic of moldova, generalizing data of the national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova, agency for interventions and payment for agriculture, ministry of agriculture, regional development and environment of moldova, agency for land relations and cadastre. the concepts of economists from the country and abroad served as methodological support. the following research methods were used in the stady: observation method, table method, analysis and synthesis method, comparison method, monographic method, statistical data collection. results of own research and discussions subsidies in agriculture are a widespread phenomenon that is used practically in all the countries. the highest level of subsidy among european countries was registered in norway, switzerland and iceland, where subsidies make up 65-75% of the agricultural production value. the average rate of economy and sociology 55 no. 1 / 2020 subsidies in the european union (eu) is 35% of the agricultural production value (tomita 2013: 73). subsidizing the agricultural sector in the republic of moldova has become the most debatable topic, as the pace of growth of the national economy directly depends on the economic growth in agriculture, a branch that covers more than 30% of the republic's jobs. in these conditions, in order to move agriculture and rural area on a more dynamic path of development, it is necessary to promote them through subsidies (aipa 2018, 2019): • measures to stabilize agricultural production by protecting agricultural activities from unfavorable climatic factors such as prolonged drought, which is a common phenomenon; • measures to stimulate agricultural activities to replace imports with competitive domestic products that can compete with imported products; • measures to change the structure of agriculture that should focus on high value-added products which means there should be made a list of products and activities that are considered to provide high added value and to allocate special resources in this direction; • measures to protect the rural environment, first of all the soil in all activities in the rural area, not only the agricultural ones; • subsidy measures should focus on agricultural production with export potential, and especially on those high value-added products that do not cover domestic consumption needs such as potatoes, vegetables, fruits, meat and milk; • measures to develop and support complex businesses with the involvement of several activities of the value chain. the implementation of subsidy measures will have an impact on increasing incomes of agricultural producers, will create favorable conditions for households. at the same time, these subsidy measures will help increase opportunities for business development in rural tourism. a high level of mobilization of financial resources to subsidize the agricultural sector has been registered during the last 7 years. thus, in the period 2012-2018, the subsidy fund with the contribution of external development partners registered a high increase from 400 million lei in 2012 to 900 million lei in 2018 (figure 1). figure 1. evolution of the subsidy fund for agricultural producers in the republic of moldova, million lei source: elaborated by the author based on the agency for intervention and payments in agriculture. the data presented in figure 1 show an increase of the subsidy fund in 2018 compared to 2012 by 500 million lei or 2.25 times. we would like to mention that one of the biggest challenges is the inability of the agency for 400 462,8 564,7 610 700 900 900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 theoretical and scientifical journal 56 no. 1 / 2020 intervention and payments in agriculture (aipa) to meet its financial obligations to all grant beneficiaries, because the agency pays on average about 70% of the total amount of subsidies authorized for the management year, the rest being transferred for the following budget year (figure 2). from the graphic presentation we can notice that from the subsidy fund for 2018 the agricultural producers were financed in proportion of 70.2%. an essential share is constituted of the arrears for 2017, which make up 24.6% of the authorized amount. the contribution for the national fund for vine and wine and the expenses for the administration of the national fund for agriculture and rural development (nfard) constituted respectively 3.2% and 2.0%. figure 2. distribution of nfard in 2018 source: prepared by the author on the database of the agency for intervention and payments in agriculture thus, late payments to beneficiaries are the main problem. solving this problem requires the grant fund to have a stable amount over several years that would allow 100% funding regardless of current budget revenues. the volume and structure of subsidies must correspond to the development objectives stipulated in the national strategy for agricultural and rural development for the years 2014-2020 and contribute to the efficient use of subsidy means. the usefulness and relevance of the grant mechanism can be appreciated from the perspective of the support provided to the implementation of this strategy, which is limited to ensuring three objectives (strategy 2014-2020): 1. food security of the country; 2. production of agricultural products with high added value; 3. sustainable use of financial resources. in the context of ensuring the country's food security, subsidizing agricultural producers can be geared towards supporting three main directions: 1. research on new production technologies; 2. promoting and implementing measures to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change on agricultural production; 3. supporting efforts to diversify the food balance (in the case of our country, ensuring the internal resources of the necessary vegetables, meat and dairy products). the national strategy for agricultural and rural development for the years 2014-2020 expects the diversification of beneficiaries of subsidies and an increase in investments from 3 billion lei per year (in 2012) to about 4 billion in 2020 (strategy 2014-2020:86). as an argument for the implementation of the strategic objectives we can see the diversification of the beneficiaries according to the form of legal organization (table 1). subsidy fund 900 mil. lei financing agricultural producers in 2018 631,8 mil.lei expenses for the administration of nfard 18,0 mil.lei arrears to farmers in 2017 221,4 mil.lei contribution to the national vine and wine fund 28,8 mil.lei start-up projects 45,0 mil.lei economy and sociology 57 no. 1 / 2020 table 1 distribution of the subsidy fund according to the forms of organization of agricultural enterprises in 2018 type of organization number of beneficiaries share, % authorized amount of subsidies, mil. lei share, % 1. joint-stock company 43 0,97 41,9 4,34 2. agricultural production cooperative 111 2,52 71,1 7,37 3. limited liability company 1418 32,15 582,7 60,42 4. peasant household 2736 62,03 252,1 26,14 5. sole proprietorship 73 1,65 12,9 1,34 6. state enterprise 3 0,07 0,3 0,03 7. public association 22 0,50 2,8 0,30 8. limited partnership 5 0,11 0,6 0,06 9. production and trade company 0 0 0 0 total 4411 100,00 964,4 100,00 source: elaborated by the author on the database of the agency for intervention and payments in agriculture. the data presented in table 1 show that in the structure of the beneficiaries of subsidies in 2018, the predominant share belongs to the peasant households 62.03%. more than 32% of the beneficiaries are limited liability companies. this fact reflects a change from the 2012-2015 average when limited liability companies and joint-stock companies owned 44% and peasant households and individual enterprises -52%. at the same time, the structure of the amounts authorized by subsidies show us that more than 582 million lei or more than 60% belongs to limited liability companies, while to the peasant households 26.14%. positive development in subsidy policies in recent years have resulted in the inclusion of agriculture in national development strategies as a priority sector and the drafting of the following legislation: subsidy regulation for the years 2017-2021; government decision on the distribution of funds of the national fund for agriculture and rural development (nfard) no. 455 of 21.06.2017, no. 201-213. the subsidy regulation for the years 2017-2021 stipulates the eligibility criteria for subsidizing agricultural producers and the ceiling (maximum amount) of subsidies in the profile of measures and sub-measures. we believe that setting subsidy ceilings for each measure will ensure an efficient use of funds. the amounts granted to subsidizing measures are the most important means by which the money can be directed so as to achieve the development objectives of agriculture and rural area. the research on subsidies granting has shown that the most important technical constraint is that the allocation takes place on an annual basis. this method has the following disadvantages: the farmer lacks the confidence that the measure will be in force the next year; it does not allow businesses to join development projects, because their implementation lasts more than a year; it allows corruption, because there exists the fear that the subsidies will not be paid later. taking into account these disadvantages and the need to improve the subsidy system, the government has decided to change the way grants are awarded in 2017 on the basis of multi-annual programs, in which the objectives and subsidy measures remain stable. thus, starting with 2017, the theoretical and scientifical journal 58 no. 1 / 2020 support measure “stimulating investments in the acquisition of the no-till and mini-till equipment” was introduced with an amount of 54.4 million lei. in the profile of support measures, the predominant share in 2018 belongs to the following measures: stimulating investments for the development of post-harvest and processing infrastructure 27.68%; stimulating investments in the acquisition of agricultural machinery and equipment 27.08%; stimulating investments for the establishment, modernization and deforestation of multiannual plantations (including fruit and vineyards) 20.36%. by the government's decision, starting with 2017 the support measures will remain stable, which will allow the adjustment to the european practices, ensuring (gd 2017): 1. planning and establishing possible subsidy support measures in accordance with the national strategy for agriculture and rural development for a period of at least 5 years, thus ensuring continuity in the support of agricultural producers. 2. the activities of receiving, examining, inspecting, authorizing applications for grants and making payments shall be based on the following principles: a. efficiency based on economic-financial arguments; b. decisional transparency; c. continuity of support processes for agricultural producers. 3. classification of agricultural producers in small, medium and large agricultural producers, criteria characteristic of the definitions were provided in law no. 206-xvi of 07.07.2006 on the support of the small and medium enterprises sector, adapted to the peculiarities of the agricultural sector, being defined depending on the land areas processed by agricultural producers. 4. the implementation of a new system for monitoring the reasonability of investment costs, not to allow an artificial increase in the value of investments in order to unfairly benefit from higher subsidies, given that the investment subsidy is calculated from expenses incurred, confirmed by invoices, payments, and so on. 5. the size of the subsidies will not exceed 50% of the investment cost, and the agricultural producer under a measure will be entitled to the subsidy only once a year. the regulation also provides for the inclusion of two new support measures, namely the stimulation of promotion activities on external markets consists in the allocation of financial resources for supporting producer groups via agricultural professional associations in participating and organizing agri-food exhibitions, fairs, and competitions, including external markets’ chains, to increase competitiveness and promote local agricultural and food products. in addition, in order to encourage organic agri-food production, to support small and mediumsized businesses and to attract young people and women farmers to agriculture, subsidies in increased amounts are granted to (aipa 2017): a) young agricultural producers and women farmers -15%; b) agricultural producers engaged in cultivating organic crops or breeding organic livestock -20%. from the perspective of developing the competitive advantages of the agricultural sector and its integration in european and international trade, submeasure 1.6 "stimulating investments for post-harvest and processing infrastructure development", corresponds mostly to the first objective of the national strategy for agriculture and rural development for 2014-2020 which consists in increasing the competitiveness of the agri-food sector through restructuring and modernization. moreover, the level of concentration of subsidy applications is close to 35%, and the share of the allocation of subsidized amounts varies from 22.6% in 2013 to 27.68% in 2018. in figure 3 we present the evolutionary nature of the means subsidized under submeasure 1.6. the data presented in figure 3 show us that despite the decrease in the allocated amounts from 141.3 million lei in 2014 to 76.4 million lei in 2015, within the period 2015-2017 an increasing trend is maintained. thus, in 2017 the amount of subsidies for the development of post-harvest-processing infrastructure increased by 104.8 million lei or almost by 2.37 times compared to 2015. in 2018, there was a decrease in the allocated amounts from 181.2 million lei to 170.2 million lei. economy and sociology 59 no. 1 / 2020 figure 3. dynamics of subsidized amounts aimed at stimulating investments for post-harvest and processing infrastructure development, mil. lei source: elaborated by the author on the database of the agency for intervention and payments in agriculture one of the most stable subsidy measures over the years is "stimulating agricultural producers to take loans from financial institutions." the impact of this measure on increasing the competitiveness of agriculture is manifested by: • boosting the use of credit by a large number of agricultural producers; • increasing the profitability of the operational activity; • increasing incomes of agricultural producers and reducing poverty in rural areas. the subsidy regulation for the years 2017-2021 provides for the granting of loans to agricultural producers for purchasing the following goods and services: • seeds and planting material; • fuel; • fertilizers; • means of plant and animal protection; • fodder; • greenhouse modules, verandas, tunnels, film for greenhouses; • equipment, agricultural equipment, irrigation systems, anti-hail equipment, etc.; • technological equipment and machinery to develop post-harvest infrastructure and primary processing. the maximum amount of credit for a beneficiary is 100 thousand lei, and for producer groups the credit ceiling is 300 thousand lei. the subsidy for the purchase of refrigerators for storing fruits, vegetables, grapes will constitute (aipa 2018): for a beneficiary 3 million lei; and for producer groups 4.5 million lei. based on the fact that the level of technical endowment of agriculture in the republic of moldova is low, one of the priority directions of subsidy is considered "stimulating investments for procurement of agricultural machinery and equipment" whose share for the period 2013-2018 is on average 23.87%. according to the data of the agency for intervention and payments in agriculture within the period 20122016 annually there were purchased over 1500 units of high capacity tractors, high precision seeders, and multi-operational grain harvesters. more than 20% of the total allocated resources are intended for the purchase of multifunctional combines for harvesting cereals, peas, and another 10% were allocated for baling, pressing of vegetable waste. of the amount of subsidies for this measure, 10% was intended to purchase the no-till and mini-till technology. the analysis of the support measures and the allocated amounts shows that almost 80% of the total amount of subsidies effectively contributed to the achievement of the strategic objectives. therefore, in order to increase the effectiveness of support measures, it is necessary to implement the subsidy instruments in more detail in order to make them more targeted. the study on the allocation of subsidies in territorial profile allowed us to identify some 69,8 141,3 76,4 108,8 181,2 170,2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 m il .l e i theoretical and scientifical journal 60 no. 1 / 2020 discrepancies between development regions and administrative districts by the total volume of subsidies [5], their structure and the amount allocated in the calculation per hectare of agricultural land. on average in 2015-2017, most subsidies were allocated to the districts: cahul (5.09%), comrat (5.18%), causeni (4.33%), hincesti (4.16%), ialoveni (3.94%). the least subsidies were allocated to the districts: basarabeasca (1.0%), vulcănești (0.9%), leova (1.3%), dubăsari (0.98%). in the period 2015-2018, the ratio between the shares of districts with the largest amounts of subsidies compared to the smallest was from 3.9: 1.0 to 5.2: 1.0. the calculations showed us that the biggest beneficiaries of subsidies are the districts where the economic level of development is high, and the level of consultancy and information for agricultural producers was also high. table 2 dynamics of subsidies calculated per 1 ha of agricultural land in the profile of the districts from the centre region, lei districts 2015 2016 2017 on average 2015-2017 anenii noi 297,46 244,91 402,86 315,1 calarasi 119,44 140,51 347,74 202,6 criuleni 150,50 534,06 502,28 395,6 dubasari 111,06 350,33 306,70 256,0 hincesti 216,82 245,45 326,13 262,8 ialoveni 312,67 483,99 528,76 441,8 nisporeni 497,04 243,32 368,69 369,7 orhei 221,03 244,81 321,30 262,4 rezina 88,96 192,43 291,40 190,9 straseni 422,54 416,02 400,34 413,0 soldanesti 242,54 280,61 536,32 353,2 telenesti 166,44 220,04 233,30 206,6 ungheni 177,53 228,82 386,72 264,4 total 232,62 294,25 380,97 309,3 source: author's calculations based on information from the agency for intervention and payments in agriculture and the agency for land relations and cadastre. at the same time, the calculations performed in table 2 attest to the existence of discrepancies in the amount of subsidies per hectare of agricultural land in the profile of the districts from the centre region. thus, on average for the years 2015-2017, the highest amounts of subsidies per hectare of agricultural land were received by the districts of ialoveni 441.8 lei, straseni 413.0 lei and criuleni 395.6 lei. and the districts with the lowest amounts of subsidies per hectare were: rezina 190.9 lei, călărași -202.6 lei and telenești -206.6 lei. figure 4. distribution of subsidies in the profile of development regions within the period 2015-2018 (in percentages) source: elaborated by the author on the database of the agency for intervention and payments in agriculture 24,99% 37,53% 29,45% 8,03% south region centre region north region atu gagauzia economy and sociology 61 no. 1 / 2020 analyzing the distribution of subsidies by development regions on average for the period 20152018 (figure 4) we can see that the predominant share of the means of the subsidy fund belongs to the center region-37.53% which is explained by the increase of subsidized amounts per hectare of agricultural land in 2018 compared to the average 2015-2017 by almost 37%. the north region in the reference period used 29.45% of the total amount of subsidies or 8.08% less than the center region. the agricultural producers from the south region and atu gagauzia received respectively 24.99% and 8.03% of the means of the subsidy fund. calculations show that for each hectare of agricultural land in the period 2015-2017, the amount of subsidies on average for the republic is 261.2 lei, which is insufficient for the development of competitive agriculture (figure 5). figure 5. dynamics of subsidies in calculation per hectare of agricultural land in the profile of development regions (lei/ha) source: author's calculations based on the information from the agency for intervention and payments in agriculture and the agency for land relations and cadastre. the level that exceeds the average subsidy per republic is attested in atu gagauzia -309.5 lei/ha and the center region -309.3 lei / ha. in the south region it is attested that for every hectare of agricultural land in 2015-2017 there were allocated 253.1 lei or 7.9 lei less than the average per republic. the lowest level of subsidy was registered in the north region -213.2 lei/ha or 48 lei less than the average per republic. the data presented in figure 5 show the dynamic increase of the subsidy level which is a result of the considerable increase of the subsidy fund in the period 2015-2017 compared to the period 2012-2014. regarding the economic efficiency, we can see the following: comparing the growth rate of subsidies and sales revenues, we can notice that the growth rate of revenues is lower than that of subsidies by 8.85 pp, which shows that there is a reduction in the efficiency of using subsidies; the dynamics shows the reduction of revenues per one leu of subsidies in 2017 compared to 2016 by 5.22 lei or by 28.84%. conclusions in order to develop agriculture and rural areas in a more dynamic way, it is necessary to subsidize agricultural producers, which can promote a wide range of support measures and especially those related to the protection of agricultural activities from unfavorable climatic factors such as drought, which is a common phenomenon in our country. it has been found that in the last seven years 211,9 188,7 151,5 183,1 187 213,2 309,3 253,1 309,5 261,2 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 north region centre region south region atu gagauzia total rm 2012-2014 2015-2017 theoretical and scientifical journal 62 no. 1 / 2020 the trend of subsidizing the agricultural sector has been upward. thus, in 2018 compared to 2012, the subsidy fund increased by 500 million lei or 2.25 times. in the structure of the subsidies beneficiaries, the largest share of subsidies are accessed by ltd (limited liability company) which, in 2018, obtained subsidies in the amount of 582.7 million lei or 60.4% of the value of the national fund for agriculture and rural development, being followed by ph (peasant households) which received subsidies in the amount of 252.1 million lei or 26.1% of the value of the national fund for agriculture and rural development. analyzing the distribution of subsidies by development regions, we found out that within the period 2015-2018 the predominant share is held by agricultural enterprises in the centre region -37.53% of the means of the subsidy fund. the calculations showed us that in the reference period the amount of subsidies per hectare of agricultural land constituted 261.2 lei on average for the republic, atu gagauzia 309.5 lei / ha, the centre region -309.3 lei / ha, the north region and the south region respectively 213.3 and 253.1 lei/ha. the research results show an increase in the dynamics of the subsidy level. at the same time with the increase of subsidies level, there is a reduction in economic efficiency, which is manifested by the decrease in sales revenues per one leu of subsidies. in the current situation, we consider that measures to monitor subsidies and their efficient use are necessary. references 1. agenția de intervenții și plăți pentru agricultură. regulamentele de subventionare 2017-2021 [citat 01 iunie 2018]. disponibil: http://aipa.gov.md/ro/content/regulamentele-desubventionare-2017-2021 2. agenția de intervenții și plăți pentru agricultură. măsurile de sprijin aferente regulamentului de subvenționare 2017-2021 [citat 14 iulie 2018]. disponibil: http://www.aipa.gov.md/ru/node/1872 3. agenția de intervenții și plăți pentru agricultură. posibilități de finanțare. [citat 09 septembrie 2018]. disponibil: http://aipa.gov.md/ro/posibilitati-de-finantare 4. agenția de intervenții și plăți pentru agricultură. rapoarte de activitate. [citat 03 septembrie 2018]. disponibil: http://aipa.gov.md/ro/rapoarte 5. agenția de intervenții și plăți pentru agricultură. liste beneficiari pe ani. [citat 10 septembrie 2018]. disponibil: http://aipa.gov.md/ro/lista-benificiarului 6. anuarul statistic al republicii moldova = статистический ежегодник республики молдова = statistical yearbook of the republic of moldova 2017. chișinău: biroul național de statistică al republicii moldova, 2017. 486 p. isbn 978 9975-53-928-9. 7. biroul naţional de statistică al republicii moldova. indicatorii principali în agricultură [citat 22 februarie 2017]. disponibil: https://statistica.gov.md/pageview.php?l=ro&idc=315&id=2278 8. biroul naţional de statistică al republicii moldova. statistica economică. [citat 16 mai 2018]. disponibil http://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/pxweb/ro/ 40%20statistica%20economica/?rxid=b2ff27d7-0b96-43c9-934b-42e1a2a9a774 9. cimpoieş, l. eficienţa alocării subvenţiilor în sectorul agricol din republica moldova. in: lucrări ştiinţifice. seria econome. universitatea agrară de stat din moldova. 2013, vol. 37, pp. 266-271. isbn 978-9975-64-252-1. 10. hotărîre guvernului cu privire la modul de repartizare a mijloacelor fondului de subvenţionare a producătorilor agricoli: nr. 135 din 24.02.2014 [citat 23 octombrie 2018]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/md/351872/ 11. hotărîre guvernului cu privire la modul de repartizare a mijloacelor fondului naţional de dezvoltare a agriculturii şi mediului rural: nr. 455 din 21.06.2017. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova 2017, nr. 201-213, art. 537 [citat 23 octombrie 2018]. disponibil: https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=114080&lang=ro 12. litvin, a., deliu, n. rolul subvenţiilor în susţinerea producătorilor agricoli. in: lucrări ştiinţifice. seria econome. universitatea agrară de stat din moldova. 2013, vol. 37, pp. 240-243. isbn 978-9975-64-252-1. http://aipa.gov.md/ro/content/regulamentele-de-subventionare-2017-2021 http://aipa.gov.md/ro/content/regulamentele-de-subventionare-2017-2021 http://www.aipa.gov.md/ru/node/1872 http://aipa.gov.md/ro/posibilitati-de-finantare http://aipa.gov.md/ro/rapoarte http://aipa.gov.md/ro/lista-benificiarului https://statistica.gov.md/pageview.php?l=ro&idc=315&id=2278 http://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/pxweb/ro/%2040%20statistica%20economica/?rxid=b2ff27d7-0b96-43c9-934b-42e1a2a9a774 http://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/pxweb/ro/%2040%20statistica%20economica/?rxid=b2ff27d7-0b96-43c9-934b-42e1a2a9a774 http://lex.justice.md/md/351872/ https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=114080&lang=ro economy and sociology 63 no. 1 / 2020 13. litvin, a., dobrovolschi, l. subvenţionarea ca modalitate de susţinere şi promovare a antreprenoriatului rural în republica moldova. in: lucrări ştiinţifice. seria econome. universitatea agrară de stat din moldova. 2013, vol. 37, pp. 227-231. isbn 978-9975-64-252-1. 14. politicile de subvenționare și eficiența fondului de subvenționare a agriculturii. 2017, februarie. [citat 07 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.expert-grup.org/ro/biblioteca/item/1379politicile-de-subventionare-si-eficienta-fondului-de-subventionare-a-agriculturii 15. hotărîre guvernului cu privire la aprobarea strategiei naţionale de dezvoltare agricolă şi rurală pentru anii 2014-2020: nr. 409 din 04.06.2014. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2014, nr. 152, art. 451 [citat 07 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=76222&lang=ro 16. tomiţa, p. subvenţionarea producţiei agricole în republica moldova şi în unele ţări ale ue. in: lucrări ştiinţifice. seria econome. universitatea agrară de stat din moldova. 2013, vol. 37, pp. 7277. isbn 978-9975-64-252-1. 17. ţurcanu, p., nirean, e. asigurarea subvenţionată a riscurilor în agricultura republicii moldova. in: ştiinţa agricolă. 2012, nr. 1, pp. 87-91. issn 1857-0003. article history received 09 april 2020 accepted 03 june 2020 https://www.expert-grup.org/ro/biblioteca/item/1379-politicile-de-subventionare-si-eficienta-fondului-de-subventionare-a-agriculturii https://www.expert-grup.org/ro/biblioteca/item/1379-politicile-de-subventionare-si-eficienta-fondului-de-subventionare-a-agriculturii https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=76222&lang=ro how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 42 no. 2 / 2019 the risk of financial networks in the context of current challenges otilia manta1, phd in economics center for financial and monetary research „victor slavescu”, romanian academy doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.2-04 jel classification: f17, g15, g23, g29, o16 udc: 330.131.7:336]:004 abstract in the current context of the redefinition of financial markets due to the challenges generated by the multi-polarity phenomenon, virtual space becomes the main trading place for financial products, and our role as a researcher is to identify new financial instruments appropriate to this reality, which is why we consider that a market trend financial is that of a new network architecture in the virtual financial space based on nodes of financial interference. moreover, financial space is a monetary representation of all other areas that can be identified and defined in society, especially in the economy, and can be considered as a set of specific financial interconnections with defining characteristics that determine them. along with the profound changes in the interconnection of the socio-economic entities, using the new information channels, more and more often in the discussions of the specialists and not only a number of monetary issues are debated, in its virtual aspect, respectively the financial risks related to the virtual space, as well as the degree of "mastery" of information networks. in this context, in this paper we will try to make a series of contributions on how this financial space is designed – as a complex network with an adequate degree of risk. keywords: finance, financial network, digitization, financial risk and sustainability. în contextul actual al redefinirii piețelor financiare urmare a provocărilor generate de fenomenul multipolaritate, spațiul virtual devine principalul loc de tranzacționare al produselor financiare, iar rolul nostru de cercetător este să identificăm noi instrumente financiare adecvate acestei realități, motiv pentru care considerăm că o tendință a piețelor financiare este aceea ca a unei noi arhitecturi de tip rețea din spațiul financiar virtual, bazată pe noduri de interferență financiară. mai mult, spațiul financiar este o reprezentare monetară a tuturor celorlalte domenii care pot fi identificate și definite în societate, în special în economie, și pot fi considerate ca un set de interconexiuni financiare specifice cu caracteristici definitorii care le delimitează. alături de schimbările profunde în interconectarea entităților socio-economice, folosind noile canale de informare, din ce în ce mai des în discuțiile specialiștilor și nu numai se dezbat o serie de probleme monetare, în aspectul său virtual, respectiv riscurile financiare legate de spațiul virtual, precum și gradul de „stăpânire” al rețelelor de informații. în acest context, în această lucrare vom încerca să aducem o serie de contribuții asupra modului în care este conceput acest spațiu financiar – ca o rețea complexă cu un grad adecvat de risc. cuvinte-cheie: finanțe, rețea financiară, digitalizare, risc financiar și durabilitate. в нынешнем контексте переопределения финансовых рынков из-за проблем, порождаемых феноменом многополярности, виртуальное пространство становится основным местом торговли финансовыми продуктами, и наша роль как исследователя заключается в выявлении новых финансовых инструментов, соответствующих этой реальности, поэтому мы считаем, что тенденция финансовых рынков – это новая сетевая архитектура в виртуальном финансовом пространстве, основанная на узлах финансового вмешательства. кроме того, финансовое пространство представляет собой денежное представление всех других областей, которые могут быть выявлены и определены в обществе, особенно в экономике, и могут рассматриваться как набор 1 © otilia manta, otilia.manta@rgic.ro, otilia.manta@icfm.ro mailto:otilia.manta@rgic.ro mailto:otilia.manta@icfm.ro economy and sociology 43 no. 2 / 2019 конкретных финансовых взаимосвязей с определяющими их характеристиками. наряду с глубокими изменениями во взаимосвязи социально-экономических субъектов, использующих новые информационные каналы, все чаще и чаще в дискуссиях специалистов обсуждается не только ряд денежных вопросов, в виртуальном аспекте, соответственно, финансовые риски, связанные с виртуальным пространством, а также степень «владения» информационными сетями. в этом контексте, в статье рассматривается устройство этого финансового пространства, как сложной сети с адекватной степенью риска. ключевые слова: финансы, финансовая сеть, оцифровка, финансовый риск и устойчивость. introduction. the financial market is a network of relationships made up of institutions, flows and instruments that ensure the transfer of financial assets and goods (currency and its substitutes) from one economic subject to another, which is realized, directly or indirectly, punctually or cumulatively. the created financial flows between economic subjects (accounting organizations, institutions) forms financial circuits where the currency can take different forms of financial assets between two consecutive exchanges (sale or purchase) of commodity. financial circuits, which constitute money transfer channels, carry the currency of payment, saving currency, placement currency, speculative currency, reserve currency, hedging currency, etc., by activating, balancing, valuing, distributing, multiplying the currency, creating a multiplicity and diversity of financial markets, interconnected and integrated into a network. the main working hypotheses in this article are: i1. the financial circuit may be represented in the network; i2. the financial markets within the network are integrated; i3. flawless links between risks and performance in financial networks are created. relating from the first working hypothesis the financial circuit can be represented as follows: s1  a1 a2 a3  a4  s2, where: s1, s2 – commodity-money exchange; a1, a2, a3, a4 – currency flows as a financial asset; the financial markets within the network are integrated, ie they include and intersect, reunite and influence, forming a functional unit through a variety of forms. financial markets include the following forms: the settlement, payment and payment markets; the credit market, which transfers currency by transformation and monetary creation; the deposit market, collection by concentration and depersonalization of the currency. these three forms (segments, components) form the bank market, in its original meaning. the money market, with its defining component, the interbank market, to which the central bank, administered by the central bank, is transferred, the currency that forms the basis (primary source) of financial flows; the financial securities market, ie debts (liabilities, commitments) written in short-term maturity (<1 year); the securities, stocks and bonds market, with long-term maturity, called the capital market; the hedging market, derivatives that represent hedging contracts; the currency market, on which national currencies (currencies) are changed. these eight forms of the financial market can be found, depending on the nature and content of financial instruments (support of financial assets, currency), in a diversity of hypostases, the financial market segmenting and assimilation, customization and uniformity -they, forming, as i said, a unity in diversity. research methodology as research methodology, we used classical observation and examination instruments, research methods based on the basic principles of scientific research, namely: "competence, objectivity, truth, methodical, demonstration, correlation, evaluation of results, utility and psychomoral "(ristea and franc, 2013). procedures based on factual analysis, intensive documentation at theoretical and scientifical journal 44 no. 2 / 2019 the level of domestic and international literature, using the databases and the scientific material existing in the endowment of libraries of specific institutes in romania and internationally, have been used. the methodology of the paper has as a direct instrument the collection of data and information from the literature and from the existing practice in public and private institutions, but especially scientific articles published on specialized research networks (researchgate, academia.edu, etc.), published articles in various journals, relevant books in the field of reference, legislation, analyzes and studies, official documents, and interactive database of the national bank of romania, other relevant sources identified in the libraries: ccfm, romanian academy, ince, ien, bnr, national library, ins, etc. moreover, we analyzed the documents using the comparative, analytical, descriptive method, the nonparticipative and participatory observation, the use of a set of informational sources, the collection of financial data in the established databases. also, the paper was based on annual reports, publications, consolidated statistical data provided by the european commission, the national bank of romania, the european central bank (ecb), the international settlement bank (bri), the european commission, oecd, published annually. have been processed in order to provide an overall and analytical picture of the most important changes taking place in the european union as a whole, but also globally – considered to be representative of the understanding of the phenomena studied, and especially in romania. research results the financial space is dual, presenting two often contradictory hypostases: the totality of entities, channels, stocks and collection streams, on the one hand, and all entities, channels, stocks and placement flows on another hand. in this context, we propose to analyze the components of the financial network and a better delimitation of the risks that may arise in such types of networks. any company, in order to achieve its short, medium or long term goals, interacts with its social, economic, natural environment. from a financial point of view, the company's relationship with its environment can be formalized by appealing to the concept of financial network. in this way, a financial structure at micro, meso or macroeconomic level can be reflected, identifying the interconnections between autonomous entities, recognized and identified legally, economically and socially. on the other hand, the financial space is a monetary representation of all other areas that can be identified and defined in society, particularly in the economy, and can be considered as a set of specific financial interconnections with defining features that delimit them. network risk (rrt) takes on concrete forms of action, manifestations, typically determined by the characteristics of the network that are affected by the decoupling, distortion, phasing out, distortion, weakening of the strength of a financial network feature. obviously, these forms refer to the radiant impact of the institutional characteristic of the network, embodied in norms, bodies, rules, structures, etc. on the interactive features of the network. the institutional grid of the network is the force, the ability of the interactive feature of the network to negatively influence the performance of the components1. based on these considerations, the global risk of financial networks needs to be assessed in the current context of challenges in terms of the functionality of the financial network principle. the complex relationship in which the network risk acts on the performance, the goals, the functionalities and the potentialities of the network is presented in figure 1, in the form of an impulse relathionship, justification of working hypothesis 3, respectively flawless links between risks and performance in financial networks. 1 mihail d., manta o. (2017): architecture of flows and financial stocks – mechanism and transmission channels, flow, transmitters and receivers, published in advances in intelligent systems research, volume 132, atlantis press. economy and sociology 45 no. 2 / 2019 figure 1. impulse relationships between risks and performance the meaning of the symbols is the following: • dim = institutional deficiencies of the financial network; • cir = the institutional feature of the network; • cif = interactive features of the network; • icr = network interconnections; • iar = network interactions (interactive flows; • elr = network elements; • frr = network risk forms; • rsm = risks specific to the financial network; • pct = losses and costs. the forms of network risk are as follows: the credibility risk is the essential form of risk of the financial network, mitigating or distorting the trust of the economic subjects in the currency, financial instruments, financial-monetary institutions, due to the malfunctions, directly or indirectly induced by contagion, immediate or delayed, with a time lag, all the specific risks and, first, the risk of depreciation of the currency. financial networks are irreducible to purely economic reasoning centered on earningsoriented economic interest, money transactions, operations and financial flows, relying on the trust of entities, economic subjects in the financial network, the transaction network, the fiduciary dimension being vital to the reproducibility of networks and for their continuity over time. trust is an integral part of maintaining interconnections and interactive financial flows, especially taking into account the uncertainty and complexity of transactions. winning economic rationality does not cover the space of confidence in the currency, depending on different factors, economic rationality depending on individual, selfish, competing and confronted interests on the market, while trust is conditioned by coexistence, social, political, cultural, but also economic, trusting reciprocity, while economic rationality involves exclusion through competition (even if the market harmonizes gains through interests). trust is an essential property of the coin, an abstract feature of money in general, which does not imply the stability and validity of the concrete forms of the currency, since confidence in the stability and validity of a monetary form, a financial instrument, means trust in institutions and rules, and rules are directly responsible for the administration of this form of currency. in this respect, the nature of the risks involved in financial transactions, in interactive flows, reflects their unique character in the modern world, namely that they are generated by man-made institutions. it can be argued that the credibility risk is not associated with trust in money as a social institution, but with confidence in social institutions, ie regulations and organizations, which create and administer specific monetary forms, financial instruments traded on the markets. the credibility risk in the financial system is determined by economic, but especially extraeconomic conditions, the placement of monetary forms in an environment centered on economic rationality, the dependence of financial transactions, the interactivity of the financial network of interests and economic gain distorts and vices the functions of the currency, its transitive potential, the goals of the network, assuring the concrete forms of the coin of improper, adverse and unfavorable finiteities and functionalities. in this respect, speculative or derivative financial forms, as quaternary, forward-looking currencies, are at the same time extreme forms of risk credibility, generating risk, covering it [4, shapiro, carl et al., 1998]. vulnerability risk is a generic risk of the financial network, due to the inadequate, institutionally cir dim cif icr iar elr frr rsm pct theoretical and scientifical journal 46 no. 2 / 2019 caused, flow characteristics and financial network, such as reliability, complexity, integration, intensity, connectivity, affecting the network as a whole, but differentiated on elements, interconnections and interactions. vulnerability expresses the debilitating of the transitive potential of the interactive flows of the network, favoring the emergence of specific risks, such as exchange rate risk, currency depreciation, interest rate risk, market risk, especially through the inadequacy channel and the inactivation channel. the organizational inconsistency of the financial network, the inconsistency of the financial instruments, the forms of currency in the financial asset hypothesis, the inadequacy of the financial operations, the rigidization and the temporal or dimensional incongruity of the sources and the destinations of the interactive flows are institutional causal factors of the vulnerability of the network, perceived by network participants by diminishing the reliability of flows that may generate liquidity or solvency risk through volatility of asset prices through the juncture of network nodes [12, sundararajan, arun, 2008], i.e. financial institutions or markets, which may ultimately lead to bankruptcy risk and so on. institutional causes of monetary network vulnerability may be:  a compositional incompleteness of entities, for example the lack of necessary entities;  a failure of connections, cumulative or distributive nodes;  o lack of functional loop connectors such as guarantee bodies, trade effects, advisory entities, and network loops to ensure the re-circulation of the inactive, temporary pending currency, such as the locked currency;  the degradation of operational synapses, such as the transformation of deposits, due to the interactive gap between collection and placement or currency convertibility due to the institutional irrelevance of monetary forms, such as reserves, surpluses, placements. the risk of vulnerability is therefore, above all, a risk of institutionalization of the financial network and derives from the network's inadequacy to environmental conditions, to its requirements and needs, and in this respect the direct effect of this network risk, the depreciation of the currency in its form – transactional, interactive, currency risk, is associated with the degradation of these conditions, with the relation between the internal and the external environment. -the risk of de-synchronization is a risk of the flows, of their interconnection in the network, affecting the interactivity of the network, ie its essence, being formally generated by the institutional regulation and organization of the network, and thus by the way of the network implementation, and functionally, i.e. the activities, responsibilities and competences of the constituent entities [5, dimitriu, m. et al., 2017]. desynchronization refers to the occurrence of any disagreement, of any kind, between the network flows, with the following aspects: gaps, gaps, defects and incompatibilities. time spans between cash inflows and outflows, between the formation of monetary resources and liquidity, and their use, transforming them into placements, increasing the stagnation of the coin as an inactive currency. if some gaps are necessary for financial transactions and interactions, most are inertial, institutionally determined, often even regulatory, inducing lasting differences, affecting the fluidity of money, circulation, and currency transformation, usually triggering liquidity and capital risks. dimensional differences in the capacity and length of flows, but also in the extensibility and intensity of the financial network. if, for example, there is a discrepancy between the capacity and the length of the collection and placement of flows, the risk of de-synchronization can also generate the liquidity risks, as well as the discrepancy between network extensibility and insensitivity, which will primarily affect the effectiveness of the network, causing a risk of financial asymmetry, concentration and rigidisation associated with the insolvency risk of financial entities that, through contagion, can affect the entire network. flow deficiencies due to the circuit of the instruments on the flow, the network velocity, these streams often result in blockages, being partly responsible for the occurrence of the risk of network agglutination, with effects on the network interactivity, determining the liquidity and monetary depreciation, as well as the currency risk [1, sundararajan, arun, 2019]. instrumental incompatibilities manifested by the inadequacy of the financial instruments to achieve certain goals or functionalities of the network, their non-adaptation to the transited currency economy and sociology 47 no. 2 / 2019 aggregates (locked currency, reserves, savings, equity, hedge funds, etc.), or, generally speaking, the supply of financial and monetary instruments (checks, cash, cards, accounts, etc.) and the demand, and especially the potential, demand, which expresses the need for economics of instruments, perhaps not yet operational, and why not yet unthinkable. the risk of de-synchronization induces a negative resonance in the network, in the case of an increased dissonance, the network may enter into "trepidation", the generic expression of this situation, the risk of vibration, negative resonance being the fluctuation, the agitation of the exchange rate, the price, the purchasing power of the coin, on a trend of chronic depreciation [2, belvaux, bertrand, 2011]. the institutional causes of this risk are connected and often dependent on economic, social and political causes (unless we consider monetary policy itself an institution), but it is obvious that the way of building its financial network, its architecture, its institutional dimensions and adequacy, contributes significantly to the emergence and maintenance of this risk. the agglomeration risk, correlated with the two previous risks, is manifested through the abundance, segregation and concentration of the currency forms and of the financial instruments on flux, in certain areas of the network, by regionalization, polarization and conjucturing, phenomena with different etiologies, institutional inadequacy of the network, creating favorable conditions, especially through the channel of incapacity, for the occurrence of rate, insolvency, and obviously market, price risks, financial assets, currency. very often, this network risk is associated with insufficient networking of specific elements of the network, which will provide certain services to the markets and contribute to strengthening its transparent automata, such as:  a continuous counting of network flows, highlighting crowded and relatively free routes, for example, the discrepancy between the interbank and the financial or the pay gap, this metering having a potential for selectivity and potential reorientation;  functional and operational adaptation of flows to the concrete requirements of interactivity, by setting up network adapters, analogue clearing houses, transforming financial assets and instruments, and forms of currency according to market requirements, making these adapters an integral part of financial markets (such as adapters), liquidity fluidization (factorial adapters), rate compensation (distributive adapters), etc., taking over some of the current market dysfunctions, such as speculative ones, which distorts some of these adaptation attributes, and redesigning the market by integrating it, strengthening its institutional network automation.  in an instrumental conversion, trying to achieve this conversiveness interactivity, the market, as it is conceived and established, is not conversational but marginal or improper, i would say, it is forcing little institutional potential of the network. a conversion market, such as the derivatives market, could be constitutively and institutionally made, in fact, anticipating and conditional this conversion, but often in a speculative environment, denaturating the functions of the currency, of monetary forms [9, manta, otilia, 2018]. managing this network risk is principally a problem of institutionalization and functionally an issue of evaluation and supervision because the flexibility of the currency, its equitable freedom, should also be found in its capitalized, financially instrumental forms, between currency-trust, it gives omniscence to it, and economic judgment, which usually regulates fragmentarily, capital flows, saved money, contradictions, crisis-generating confrontations that partially reflect the existence of this agglomeration risk with speculative openings [10, economides, nicholas et al., 2006]. the risk of detachment and polarization is the specific network risk that suffers from three institutional diseases:  ignorance, in the sense of disregard or insufficiency of consideration of the environment, due to the institutional endowment, which gives it some form of knowledge and understanding;  vanity, not in the anthropomorphic sense, determined primarily by the approach of currency, of monetary forms, in terms of profit-centered economic reasoning, financial entities considering the currency capitalized as a generator of power and not as a binder between the network and the environment, bidders and coin applicants, the bank currency, and its financial form, which produces wealth, denoting for the most part the functions of the coin, perhaps adapting them to distorted forms theoretical and scientifical journal 48 no. 2 / 2019 of authentic currency, based on trust; obviously, vanity is reactive, not adaptive, and that is the case of financial crises, often induced by financial entities, banking in the socio-economic ensemble;  esoterism, in the sense of the financial sector, especially the banking sector, being hardly accessible to the uninitiated, this disease being landless, from time immemorial, and partly with constitutive justifications and, we could say, ontological. the coin being something very sensitive and omniscient has been called the blood of society, but it has now become a kind of pathology of appearances, a pathology commanded, authentic, original esoteric, original, disappearing, remaining an esotericism of complications, often unnecessarily functional functional diversions mimetic esotericism, but the more sickly and contagious [11, grant, robert m., 2010]. the risk of detachment is manifested by the separation of the financial network from the socioeconomic environment as a whole, from its real markets, including the health, culture, education, financial network, and sometimes it is in the face of the specific evolution of these human areas how to build up the guiding principles of its configuration and architecture, so that posting induces specific risks in the financial network, such as rate and rate, volatility and lack of real coverage, not speculativearbitrary, generating furious crises at the local level, regional, hard-to-absorb, loss-making and environmental costs, but also liquidity risks, ending up with bankruptcy as well as non-financial entities. the polarization risk highlights the network's tendency to create concetrative poles, financial centers officially represented by the central bank, which, beyond the coordination and regulatory attributes, becomes a market operator in the name of monetary policy, conferring confidence in the currency , in its purchasing power, but also in operative financial centers, which co-ordinates with money, the financial instruments, the power to influence, to intervene, to sometimes unbalance the markets in the "order" to balance them according to already esoteric goals, or at least selective beneficial [6]. polarization is a phenomenon common to all networks, from mineral, natural to neural and spiritual, but the polarizing institutionalization of the financial network can have perverse, sometimes unpredictable effects, polarization contributing to accentuating network risks, financial network specificities, to the extent in which polarization does not serve the network, the currency, the trust in the currency, exacerbating, for example, the gain orientation, according to economic reasoning. a significant effect of postponement and polarization risk, a potential and a real effect, is generating specific devastating risks is the unparalleled expansion of the value of financial flows compared to real flows, most financial flows milling down the currencies, obviously for earnings, for the transfer, rarely converted into real, consuming or investment assets [3, buley, taylor, 2009]. conclusions the five types of network risks developed above do not cover the whole range of risk potential inherent in the financial network, highlighting only their existence, their specificity and relevance in the monetary space, as well as their institutional determinant etiology. at the same time, the above approach wanted to reveal that the credibility risk is paramount, being the generic network risk, the placement of its currency, its forms and instruments, in a space dominated by economic reasoning, centered on interest and gain, credibility in the currency, the ability of the coin to perform its original functions. risk network, the five types of its defined above are generated by both determinants and conditioning, and they generate direct and indirect effects through specific risks network financial risk network is placed in a structure of interdependencies, of direct and mediated influences [5, dimitriu, m. et al., 2017]. financial market infrastructure plays a central role because financial stability is greatly influenced by the environment in which financial intermediaries operate. as there are cultural differences, there are also structural differences between countries. nations have a diversity between political and economic systems, legal frameworks and tax structures, which play a central role in the development of their financial systems. those national influences can certainly interact and certainly affect practices and procedures in the regional financial markets. risks of financial instability are likely to occur from time to time and therefore formulate a well articulated strategy to address potential financial imbalances should be high on the agenda of central banks and supervisors [11, grant, robert m., 2010]. such strategies should cover the following areas: a coherent policy framework at the macroeconomic level to ensure the implementation of a coherent economy and sociology 49 no. 2 / 2019 macroeconomic policy framework [7, blind, knut, 2004], essential for maintaining financial and monetary stability. the framework should be consistent in achieving macroeconomic objectives and should avoid the accumulation of imbalances that may lead to financial instability. from the point of view of the personal contributions related to the working hypotheses, we consider that the determinant element that leads us to the definition of the financial network is given by the risk of detachment and polarization and that is also the specific risk of the network. moreover, as mentioned above, the network is placed in a structure of interdependencies, which causes us to reconsider the direct influences on the new architecture of the financial market, these will be the subject of continuity of our research. at the same time, we consider that the working hypotheses are confirmed due to the fact that both i1.the financial circuit may be represented in the network and i2. the financial markets within the network are integrated are determinants for i3. flawless links between risks and performance in financial networks, and all these lead us to a current integrated and multipolar financial system. references 1. sundararajan, arun. network effects. [accesat 11.08.2019]. disponibil: http://oz.stern.nyu.edu/io/network.html 2. belvaux, bertrand. the development of social media: proposal for a diffusion model incorporating network externalities in a competitive environment. in: recherche et applications en marketing. 2011, vol. 26 (3), pp. 7-22. issn 2051-5707. 3. buley, taylor. how to value your networks. 2009, july 31. [accesat 11.08.2019]. disponibil: https://www.forbes.com/2009/07/31/facebook-bill-gates-technology-securitydefcon.html#1d48d4ee4cea 4. shapiro, carl, varian, hal r. information rules. brighton: havard business school press, 1998. isbn 0-87584-863-x; isbn 9780875848631. 5. dimitriu, m., manta, o. architecture of flows and financial stocks-mechanism and transmission channels, flow, transmitters and receivers. in: modelling, simulation and applied mathematics: 2nd international conference, march 26-27 2017. series: advances in intelligent systems research. 2017, vol. 132. [accesat 11.08.2019]. disponibil: https://www.atlantispress.com/proceedings/msam-17 6. parker, geoffrey, van alstyne, marshall. two sided networks: a theory of information product design. in: management science. 2005, vol. 51 (10). [accesat 11.08.2019]. disponibil: https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0400 7. blind, knut. the economics of standards: theory, evidence, policy. cheltenham-northampton: edward elgar publishing, 2004. 384 p. isbn 978-1-84376-793-0. 8. metcalfe, robert m. it's all in your head. 2007, april. [accesat 11.08.2019]. disponibil: forbes.com/forbes/2007/0507/052.html 9. manta, otilia. current trends of the national financial market in the context of the global financial market. ccfm-ince, romanian academy. 2018, march. [accesat 11.08.2019]. disponibil: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324475305_the_current_trends_of_the_national_fi nancial_market_in_the_context_of_the_global_financial_market 10. economides, nicholas, katsamakas, evangelos. two-sided competition of proprietary vs. open source technology platforms and the implications for the software industry. in: management science. 2006, vol. 52 (7). [accesat 11.08.2019]. disponibil: http://neconomides.stern.nyu.edu/networks/economides_katsamakas_two-sided.pdf 11. grant, robert m. contemporary strategy analysis. hoboken: john wiley&sons, 2010. 516 p. isbn 0-470-74710-2. 12. sundararajan, arun. local network effects and complex network structure. in: the b.e. journal of theoretical economics. 2008, vol. 7 (1), pp. 1-37. issn 1935-1704. article history received 11 september 2019 accepted 05 december 2019 http://oz.stern.nyu.edu/io/network.html https://www.forbes.com/2009/07/31/facebook-bill-gates-technology-security-defcon.html%231d48d4ee4cea https://www.forbes.com/2009/07/31/facebook-bill-gates-technology-security-defcon.html%231d48d4ee4cea https://www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/msam-17 https://www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/msam-17 https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0400 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324475305_the_current_trends_of_the_national_financial_market_in_the_context_of_the_global_financial_market https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324475305_the_current_trends_of_the_national_financial_market_in_the_context_of_the_global_financial_market economy and sociology 131 december no. 2/2020 a critical review of youth-oriented policies in the republic of moldova from the perspective of youth transition regime mariana crismaru1, national institute for economic reseach doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-11 jel classification: i31, i38 udc: 303+304](478) abstract youth issues have long been a focus of policy in moldova, despite an uneven trend over time. the aim of the article is to analyze the main policy documents devoted to youth within key policy areas that invest in the development and efficient use of human capital from the perspective of the youth transition regime. a mixed-method approach was applied: situation and contextual analysis, review and analysis of policy documents, reports and studies targeting young people. the review and analysis of policy framework has revealed that although youth issues are promoted through various policies, there is a lack of an integrated approach and a comprehensive evaluation mechanism on the implementation of youth policies, including cross-sectoral dimension. youth-related policies falls into a `transitional` regime characterized by an integrated education system, high rate of early leavers from education and training, high level of youth rate not in education employment or training – neet, low popularity/ prominence of vocational education and training, poor concordance between the education system and the labour market. the evaluation of policy measures intended to facilitate the transition of young people to adulthood shows that individualized and compensatory approaches predominate. policy actions are focused mainly on youth skills development and less on structural policy measures in crosssectoral areas. there is a need to review and adapt youth policies and strategies to the current and real needs of youth by promoting participatory approaches that would reflect the diversity of youth in moldova, especially in socially vulnerable groups. keywords: young people, challenges, youth policy, transition regimes, welfare citizenship. problemele tinerilor au constituit o sursă de preocupări pentru dezvoltarea unor politici de tineret în republica moldova, deși a avut o evoluție oscilantă de-a lungul anilor. scopul articolului este de a analiza principalele documente de politici destinate tinerilor în domenii-cheie care investesc în dezvoltarea și utilizarea eficientă a capitalului uman din perspectiva regimului de tranziție al tinerilor. a fost aplicată metoda mixtă: analiza situației și contextuală, cartografierea și analiza documentelor de politici, rapoarte și studii care vizează tinerii. analiza cadrului de politici au arătat că în pofida unui număr important de strategii, programe destinate tinerilor, se atestă lipsa unei abordări integrate și a unui mecanism de evaluare complex privind implementarea politicilor de tineret. politica de tineret se încadrează în regimul „tranzitoriu” caracterizat printr-un sistem de educație integrat, o rată ridicată a părăsirii timpurii a educației și formării, un nivel ridicat al ratei tinerilor înafara sistemului de educație, ocupare şi formare profesională – neet, o popularitate/proeminență scăzută a învățământului profesional tehnic, o concordanță slabă între sistemul de învățământ și piața muncii. evaluarea măsurilor de politici menite să faciliteze tranziția tinerilor la viaţa de adult arată că predomină abordările individualizate și compensatorii. măsurile de politici se concentrează mai mult pe abilitarea profesională și soluționarea deficiențelor individuale și mai puțin pe măsuri structurale în domenii intersectoriale. este necesară revizuirea adaptarea politicilor și strategiile pentru tineret la nevoile lor actuale și reale, promovând abordări participative care să reflecte diversitatea tinerilor din moldova, în special grupurile social vulnerabile. cuvinte-cheie: persoane tinere, provocări, politici de tineret, regimuri de tranziție, cetățenie social. 1 id orcid 0000-0003-2802-5376 email: mariana.crismaru@yahoo.com mailto:mariana.crismaru@yahoo.com theoretical and scientifical journal 132 december no. 2/2020 проблемы молодежи на протяжение долгого времени является предметом внимания политики молдовы, несмотря на неравномерную тенденцию. цель статьи проанализировать основные документы по вопросам политики связанные с молодежью в ключевых областях, которые инвестируют в развитие и эффективное использование человеческого капитала с точки зрения молодежного переходного режима. применялся смешанный подход: ситуационный и контекстный анализ, обзор и анализ стратегических документов, отчетов и исследований, ориентированных на молодежь. обзор и анализ стратегических документов показали, что хотя вопросы молодежи продвигаются в рамках различных политик, отсутствует комплексный подход и всеобъемлющий механизм оценки реализации молодежной политики, включая межсекторальный аспект. политика, связанная с молодежью, относится к «переходному» режиму, характеризующемуся интегрированной системой образования, высоким показателем досрочного ухода из образования и профессиональной подготовки, высоким уровнем показателя молодежи вне сферы образования, занятости и профессиональной подготовки – neet, низкой популярностью/релевантностью профессионального образования и обучения, плохим соответствием между системой образования и рынком труда. оценка политических мер, направленных на содействие перехода молодых людей к взрослой жизни, показывает, что преобладают индивидуализированные и компенсационные подходы. действия политики сосредоточены в основном на развитии навыков молодежи и меньше на мерах структурной политики в межсекторальных областях. необходимо пересмотреть и адаптировать молодежную политику и стратегии к их текущим и реальным потребностям, продвигая совместные подходы, которые отражали бы разнообразие молодежи в молдове, особенно социально уязвимых групп. ключевые слова: молодежь, вызовы, молодежная политика, переходные режимы, социальное гражданство. introduction it is widely agreed that investing now in human capital of youth will provide long-term benefits and contribute to the inclusive and sustainable economic growth of the country. thus, it would possible to take advantage of the benefits of an active, innovative and skilled workforce and avoid significant social and economic costs due to educational and occupational exclusion of young people. there are also youth challenges related to demographic changes, high emigration rate, weak correlation of the education and training system with labour market requirements, poverty, social exclusion and other issues. these challenges create the requirement for a strong government’s political commitment and need for specific policies and strategies tailored to certain categories of young people. broadly defined, national youth policy is `a government’s commitment and practice towards ensuring good living conditions and opportunities for the young population of a country` (denstad, 2009), as well is `a long-term strategy, a general framework accompanied by an action plan to be implemented in the youth field, previously approved by a governmental structure or public authority` (pîslaru, 2019). according to country strategic documents, the youth policy in moldova is `a set of principles, methods and measures designed to ensure participation opportunities, well-being, personal and professional development for young people` (law on youth, 2016). at least declaratively, it represents an integrated cross-sectorial approach, addressed to and involving young people, while starting from their needs. the main aim of the article is to describe and analyse main policy initiatives in moldova devoted to youth within key policy areas that invest in the development and efficient use of human capital and are relevant for the youth transition regime. this includes an institutional and policy framework related to the education and training system, employment regulation and social security and protection system with an emphasis on youth transition policies. in addition, the extent to which these policies respond to the problems and needs of young people is estimated by taking the main indicators in the targeted areas as points of reference. despite high-level policy advocacy, the comprehensive and integrated youth policy has remained largely rhetorical and is scarcely studied based on new approaches. this study intends to economy and sociology 133 december no. 2/2020 cover this gap by making interferences along the dimensions of youth transition theories. moreover, the study targets to emphasize priority areas for future actions and measure by government for the development of a more comprehensive national youth policy. literature review youth policy should respond to both country specific problems as well as global trends and challenges. most studies in the field show that global trends and social changes, such as increasing inequality and exclusion, labour market insecurity, family fragility have affected the younger generations to a greater extent than the older ones (taylor-gooby, 2005; walther & pohl, 2007). the current era is usually characterized by the notion of `de-standardization` (walther & pohl, 2007) with important implications on the process of transition of young people towards adulthood, which involves a greater variety of family models and lifestyles, diversified educational pathways, as well as longer, varied, unstable and uncertain transitions to work (leccardi, 2006), (ganta & shamchiyeva, 2016). similar to other countries in the region, young people in moldova face multiple and interdependent challenges. the youth multidimensional deprivation indicator (y-mdi)1 shows that more than one-third (36.2%) of youth suffer from deprivation in multiple wellbeing dimensions such as education, employment, health, civic participation and social inclusion. deprivations in employment and civic participation are more significant (40.5% and 41.4% respectively) (oecd, 2016). moreover, many young people in moldova are facing poverty and social exclusion, while the places of residence in which they live and work are most likely to influence their standard of living. thus, there is evidence of widening social inequality between young people in rural areas compared to urban areas. rural settlements, as well as small towns, have lower economic potential, higher poverty levels, limited access to many goods and services and also fewer opportunities for the development of young human capital (crismaru, gagauz, & buciuceanu-vrabie, 2018). a particular concern is youth integration on the labour market as they are facing a number of challenges in the school to work transition. at the same time, economic recession and political instability still reduce their chances to integrate into the domestic labor market. thus, researches focusing on the transition from school to work have both highlighted a range of individual and systemic factors that influence the occupational integration of young people in moldova (buciuceanu-vrabie & gagauz, 2017; ganta & shamchiyeva, 2016): limited number of jobs and low quality jobs, low salaries, informality; continuous emigration flows, dependence on remittances; regional and rural/urban discrepancies; unequal opportunities, low mobility; gender gap in the access and quality of employment (young women, especially with little children, being most discouraged on the labour market). the cumulative effect of all these problems is leading to “dis-integration`, which means the disengagement and alienation of young population of the country from three central forms of citizenship. from political citizenship, as they feel that the government is not pursuing the right policies and the level of trust in public institutions is low. from economic citizenship, as they are unable to find jobs or to enter the formal labour market and from social citizenship, as they feel that the state is not giving them the kind of support through life transitions (abbott, wallace, & mascauteanu, 2010). as a result, many young people choose to go abroad and increasing rates of emigration during the last decades come to confirm that. therefore, not only the complexity of the problems is reiterated, but also the requirement for a comprehensive, cross-sectoral, coherent policy targeting different categories of young people in their transition to independent adult life. conceptual framework. the conceptual and analytical framework of relevant policy measures to support young people in transition to independent adult life is known as the youth transition regime developed by walther (walther & pohl, 2007; walther, 2006) and the youth welfare citizenship developed by chevalier (chevalier, 2016; chevalier, 2017). the ̀ youth transition regime` 1 this indicator measures the share of youth affected by multiple deficits in the areas of education, employment, health, civic participation and social inclusion at the same time, oecd, 2017. theoretical and scientifical journal 134 december no. 2/2020 encompasses the institutional and policy framework, which includes education and training systems, employment regulation and social protection system (walther, 2006). the “de-standardization` of youth transition and the emergence of new risks of social exclusion have led to the development of new transition policies (`activation` policies, social investment policies etc.). these policies differ widely between countries, but all tend to reduce dependence on social protection towards labour market integration, while school-to-work transitions are primarily focused on `disadvantaged young people`. young people are disadvantaged if they do not have key premises and resources for a standard transition process and refer to an interconnected model between the structure and the agency (walther & pohl, 2007) (figure 1). figure 1. interconnected model between the structure and the agency source: walther, 2007. furthermore, in relation to school-to-work transitions two main ways of interpreting (diagnosing) and approaching (policies) disadvantages are identified: ✓ `young people are disadvantaged because they are unemployed` a structural diagnosis that requires structural policies to increase labour demand. relevant in countries where the youth unemployment rate is high. ✓ `young people are unemployed because they are disadvantaged` a diagnosis that refers to individual deficiencies, i.e. lack of skills or unwillingness to work, and the need for policies aimed at helping young people by increasing their employability (training). another aspect in policy analysis is `preventive vs. compensatory`. if the policy actions are preventive, then the approach is broader and mostly related to infrastructure, while the compensatory ones are focusing on young people who are already facing disadvantages, for example those who have dropped out of school or are unemployed. chevalier [chevalier, 2019; chevalier, 2016] calls policies aimed at promoting youth autonomy `youth welfare citizenship`, i.e. the possibility for young people to access financial resources for maintenance and participation in society, which is structured through state interventions and public policies. the state can promote this independence by helping individuals to get a job, a process called `economic citizenship` regulated by education and employment policies. at the same time, it can offer young people resources in the form of aid/allowances, such as support for the family, for pupils/students, for purchasing a dwelling, unemployment benefits, which is called `social citizenship`. as well, chevalier (chevalier, 2019) specify that economic citizenship may have two forms `inclusive` (from the `learning-first` perspective) or `selective` (from the `work-first` perspective). it is inclusive when it seeks to provide skills to all young people by reducing early school abandonment. subsequently, employment policy proposes programs to provide a second chance to low-skilled young adults (i.e. in the eu there is the `youth guarantee` program). on the contrary, it is selective when the education system is elitist and produces significant educational inequalities. the employment policy, from the economy and sociology 135 december no. 2/2020 perspective of `work-first` focuses on reducing labour costs and creating atypical jobs that would make it easier for young people to access jobs. it does not have the prerogative to compensate for inequalities in education or to offer a second chance, but rather to develop low-skill jobs. the `social citizenship` is divided into `familiarized` vs. `individualized`. it is `familiarized` when young people are considered children, given the high age limits (approximately 25 years) and they remain `dependent children` in social protection. in turn, is `individualized` when young people are considered adults, and lower age limits allow them to more easily access social assistance/allowances. data sources and used methods in order to achieve study goals the mixed-method approach was applied: (i) situation and contextual analysis; (ii) desk review of relevant secondary data sources as international and national organization reports, governmental reports and primary data targeting young people; (iii) in-depth analysis of key youth policy documents, including cross-sectoral, analysis of existing policy evaluation reports and studies. existing relevant normative frameworks and policies were analyzed with a focus on: overall national normative framework and development policies that have a direct impact on youth policies. at the same time, assessment of existing government youth-related policies in response to youth needs, problems and vulnerability was implied. results of own research and discussions national youth policy framework. a sufficient legal and conceptual strategic framework in the youth field, but also a series of important policy documents that regulate the activity and guide the country youth policies is attested. the national legal framework has been modified in accordance with new realities and trends, including at regional and global levels, and also in line with the provisions of international and regional treaties and conventions to which the republic of moldova is part. for the most part, the sector was strengthened with the approval of the national strategy for youth sector development (2014-2020) and action plan on its implementation (2014) and subsequently with the approval of the law on youth (2016). this strategy focuses mainly on expanding existing services and creating new ones in four strategic areas: youth participation; youth services; economic opportunities for young people; strengthening the youth sector. the evaluation report on the implementation of the strategy have attested certain progresses in terms of developing structures for youth services and participation (youth centers, local youth councils, etc.), but also highlighted a range of systemic problems, such as reduced capacity at all levels concerning human and financial resources, a narrow spectrum of targeted services for different categories of young people, their concentration in the urban area, as well as a deficient mechanism of connection between the parties involved (gagauz, stratan, buciuceanu-vrabie, & crismaru, 2020). the law on youth (no 215 from 29.07.2016) regulates the principles and goals of youth policies based on cross-sectorial cooperation. the priority areas stipulated in the law are economic opportunities; multilateral participation and development; healthy lifestyle; services and programs for youth people. this law introduced important changes in the youth sector, ensuring a legislative update to the needs of youth, youth workers and specialists, other interested parties. this document included several new definitions and terms, such as non-formal and informal education of young people, peer educators, etc. the category of persons falling under the scope of this law was extended to persons between the ages of 14 and 35 (in the law of 1999 the category ranged between persons aged 16-30). nevertheless, about half of the 55 provisions stipulated in the law are vague and largely descriptive, meaning a low impact on the way the authorities address the issues of young people (unicef, 2017). it should be mentioned that in the main legislative and normative acts “youth` is largely treated as a homogeneous group not distinguishing specific groups by age, gender, place of residence, ethnicity, etc. even if young people with limited opportunities are mentioned in both the law on youth and the strategy, specific groups are not delimited (e.g. young people with disabilities, ethnic minorities, unemployed, education or training young people, etc.). despite the improvement of the normative and institutional framework on youth sector, the effective implementation and enforcement of legislation remains a challenge. as a specialized central public administration body that develops and promotes youth policies nationally, the ministry of theoretical and scientifical journal 136 december no. 2/2020 education, culture and research does not have subordinated regional territorial units in the field of youth and does not have efficient tools and mechanisms to influence the implementation of the legal framework locally. at the same time, responsibilities delegated to local public authorities regarding the identification of financial, material and human resources for promoting youth programs in the territory cannot be fully fulfilled due to limited financial, logistical and human possibilities. education policy beyond the lower secondary level. during the last decade several comprehensive documents that set the policy priorities in the area of education and training were developed and approved. these are the education development strategy for 2014-2020 `education 2020` and “strategy for the development of vocational education and training (vet) 2013-2020`. in 2014 a new code of education was adopted, establishing the legal framework for organizing, implementing and developing education, and provides the basis for modernizing the education and training system. the main objectives of the reference documents are to increase access to education for all children and young people, including vulnerable groups, and to provide quality education at every level, from early childhood development to higher education, ensuring that studies are relevant to the necessities of life, active citizenship and career success. the country’s educational system underwent several important changes over the past years. thus, in response to demographic decline and low efficiency in primary and secondary education, a school network optimization has been carried out. these reforms targeted vet providers as well, but have not yet included higher education institutions. whereas these optimization reforms have had some positive impact in urban areas, in rural areas they could not slow down the decline in key efficiency indicators (worldbank, 2018). moreover, despite the implementation of a costly vet reform aimed at supporting the socioeconomic development of the country, it has not fully reached its goals. the accessibility of higher education for a wider segment of young people has made vocational education less attractive with a decrease in the number of students in the vet system. therefore, the policy of education has been focused on reforms and was oriented towards expanding access to education, connecting to the new requirements and challenges. however, the main problems in this sector continue to persist: high rate of early leavers from education, high neet rate, low quality and mismatch between education and labour market requirements and other issues. thus, the rate of early leavers from education and training is actually quite high, the percentage of people aged 18 to 24 with at most lower secondary education and not in further education or training was around 21% in 2018 (nbs, 2019). this indicator is twice the eu average 10.6% (eurostat, 2019). furthermore, in 2018 almost 24% or every fourth person aged 15-29 had neet status. the rate is especially high among women compared to men (30,2% vs. 18,1%), which has validity for both urban and rural areas (nbs, 2019). policy measures. analysing the policy measures in terms of youth transition dimensions, it may be concluded that policy measures are `inclusive` given that they try to provide skills and competencies to as many young people as possible, and then through training/vocational programs to give a second chance to low-skilled young people. at the same time, measures to reduce early school leaving are `compensatory` and not `preventive` since they are aimed at young people who have already left the education system. there is no clear and functional mechanism for monitoring this phenomenon, there are no specific measures for prevention and intervention, and there is no cross-sectoral cooperation in combating this phenomenon. labour market policy for youth. one of the priority areas for intervention and development stipulated in the law on youth (2016) is `economic opportunities for young people`. in the national strategy for the development of the youth sector (2014-2020) among the main objectives there are economic empowerment and entrepreneurship of young people for increasing employment opportunities. according to the law on the promotion of employment and unemployment insurance young people aged between 16 and 24 are defined as a group that needs additional support on the labour market. in the national employment strategy (2017-2021) special attention is paid to employment policies of the young population for their integration and maintaining on the labour market. the emphasis is on increasing the social inclusion of all young people, facilitating the transition from school to work, focusing in particular on integration into the labour market. economy and sociology 137 december no. 2/2020 moreover, the national employment agency implements a range of active measures to stimulate employment, including counseling, guidance and vocational training. although it does not promote specific measures for young people, according to activity reports, about 30% of the beneficiaries of these measures are people aged 16-29 (nea, 2019). therefore, in the strategic reference documents, youth employment is included in the policymaking process as a cross-cutting issue of major importance. nevertheless, the reports evaluations based on key labour market indicators confirm that country still faces serious structural problems, such as informal work, low labour market participation, insufficient and inadequate quality jobs, inequalities and skill mismatches (buciuceanu-vrabie & gagauz, 2017), (crismaru, gagauz, & buciuceanu-vrabie, 2018). according to official statistics, in 2018 the employment rate among young people aged 15-24 years was 20,9%, which is the lowest compared to other age categories and it increases with the age (nbs, 2019). thus, among people aged 25-34 the employment rate constitutes 50,3%, i.e. every second persons of this age is participating on the labour market. the employment rate varies significantly by area of residence and gender for both age categories. the rates are higher in urban areas and among young men. policy measures. analyzing in terms of terms of youth transition dimensions, employment policy measures for young people are largely `individualized` as young people are seen as a disadvantaged group on the labor market. thus, the actions are largely oriented towards increasing the employability of young people through counseling, professional training, etc. these are mostly `compensatory` and not `preventive` since they are oriented to young people already facing disadvantages. however, policy measures need to be more focused on promoting the growth of quality youth jobs. macroeconomic and sectoral measures with provisions to improve employment and productivity, to promote entrepreneurship among young people are imperative in the case of moldova. social welfare policy. in the republic of moldova these policies focus mainly on measures related to the social protection of families with small children and maintaining the jobs of mothers by granting a childcare leave of up to 4 years. the financial support of families with children provided by the state is applied in the form of allowances paid periodically or monthly upon childbirth and during childcare depending on the family's status on the labour market, income level and age of the child. it can be concluded that these policies are mostly ̀ family-centered` with a number of benefits for families with small children. after the latest amendments to the legislation, mothers have paid childcare leave up to 2,2/3 years and unpaid childcare leave up to 4 years. at the same time there is no multisectoral vision of providing benefits for each child up to 18 years as in most developed countries. existing policies are mainly focused on categories of beneficiaries than on a targeted approach per child and the measures applied are carried out more post-factum to confirm poverty than to prevent it based on risk (expert-grup, 2014). in the context of the youth transition regime the access of young people to housing is a topic of major importance both in terms of policies developed by the state to support young people and in terms of policy modelling to reduce youth migration. according to the law on youth (2016), the state adopts specific measures to provide young people with housing by supporting the construction of houses for young people and young families and develop policies on purchasing dwelling by young people and young families. in order to increase access to housing the “prima casă” (eng. `first house`) state program (2017) was launched, designed to facilitate the access of individuals to purchase a home by contracting mortgages partially guaranteed by the state. a major objective of this program is to discourage the emigration of young specialists abroad. although it was originally planned for young people up to 35 years old, it was later extended to people aged 18-45. the data show that since the launch of the “prima casă” (eng. `first house`) state program so far 4031 applications have been registered, of which 3871 have been accepted (96%). thus, according data available website, out of the 3871 beneficiaries, 2720 are families and 1151 are unmarried young people, the average age of the applicants being 31.3 years. despite the efforts made by public authorities to increase access to housing for young people through the “prima casă” (eng. `first house`) state program and other support programs, the number of young people benefiting from these programs is low, while the migration rate among them continues to increase. theoretical and scientifical journal 138 december no. 2/2020 conclusions in recent decades the legal and conceptual framework that defines and guides youth policies in the republic of moldova has changed considerably, in line with new realities and challenges. despite the improvement of the regulatory framework, the implementation and effective enforcement of legislation remains a challenge, mainly due to limited financial, logistical and human possibilities of central and local public authorities. the review and analysis of the policy framework has revealed that youth issues are promoted by various policies and some are part of national sectorial strategies. however, a lack of an integrated approach and a comprehensive evaluation mechanism on the implementation of youth policies is attested, including on a cross-sectoral dimension. regardless of the intersectoral character of youth issues recognition and its stipulation in policy documents, the collaboration between different state institutions in the field of youth is insufficient and often purely formal. despite relatively large public investments in education system, as well as the implementation of important reforms and programs, educational and training institutions fail to cope with issues such as the mismatch between education and training outcomes and labour market requirements, high rate of early leavers from education and training, high neet rate, etc. subsequent actions aimed at increasing the employability of young people are not able to make up for the shortcomings in the early stages of human capital formation and the lack of adequate social investment in this area. it can be stated that the youth transition regime in moldova falls under the `transitional` category according to the classification developed by pohl and walther. it is characterized by an integrated education system, the predominance of general education; high rate of early school leavers; low popularity/prominence of vet; poor quality of education. at the same time, active employment measures are relatively underdeveloped; there is evidence of a focus on developing employment skills; high incidence of temporary/low quality jobs; mismatch of competencies. the assessment of policy measures designed to facilitate the transition of young people to adulthood shows that individualized and compensatory approaches predominate. policy actions are mainly focused on youth skills development and addressing individual deficiencies and less on structural policy measures in cross-sectoral areas. although, in case of early education and training abandonment training, preventive measures are indicated. at the same time, it involves increased risks at the individual level and exerts more pressure on the family. some of the provisions of policies aimed at promoting the autonomy of young people in terms of ‘youth welfare citizenship’ are declarative in nature and hardly implemented. social policies are mostly family-centered, with a number of benefits for families with small children, albeit insufficient. the state's policy of increasing access to housing is at an early stage and still poorly developed, so it does not play a significant role in relation to the situation of young people in the country’s housing market. there is a need to review and adapt youth policies and strategies to the current and real needs of this population category. at the same time, given the strong segmentation of the young population from a socio-demographic, economic and aspirational point of view, specific, nuanced and adequately targeted institutional responses are needed. participatory development of the new youth development strategies by reflecting the diversity of youth in moldova, the interests and needs of youth from various social groups, especially from the socially vulnerable ones must be promoted. this process should involve more discussions in focus groups with identified categories of youth who are facing specific vulnerabilities/needs and have limited opportunities to identify the desired support and activities that would be included in the strategy and plan in order to solicit their ideas for goals and actions. references 1. abbott, p., wallace, c., mascauteanu, m. concepts of citizenship, social and system integration among young people in post-soviet moldova. in: journal of youth studies. 2010, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 581596. issn 1367-6261. 2. buciuceanu-vrabie, m., gagauz, o. youth on the labour market in the republic of moldova: competences and aspirations. chisinau, 2017. economy and sociology 139 december no. 2/2020 3. chevalier, t. varieties of youth welfare citizenship: towards two-dimensional typology. in: journal of european social policy. 2016, no 26 (1), pp. 3-19. issn 0958-9287. 4. chevalier, t. social citizenship of young people in europe: a comparative institutional analysis. in: journal of comparative policy analysis: research and practice. 2018, vol 20, issue 3, pp. 304-323. issn 1387-6988. 5. chevalier, t. political trust, young people and institutions in europe. a multilevel analysis. in: international journal of social welfare. 2019, vol. 28, pp. 418-430. issn 1468-2397. 6. crismaru, m., gagauz, o., buciuceanu-vrabie, m. inclusion of youth not in employment, education or training (neet youth). chișinău, 2018. 7. denstad, f. youth policy manual. how to develop a national youth strategy. council of europe publishing. 2009. 92 p. isbn 978-92-871-6576-3. 8. eurostat. 2019 [cited 24 october 2020]. available: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database. 9. expert-grup. politici de susținere a familiilor cu copii: viziune de politici în uniunea europeană şi propuneri pentru republica moldova. 2014, 14 iulie [cited 24 october 2020]. available: https://expertgrup.org/en/biblioteca/item/987-unicef-1 10. gagauz, o., stratan, a., buciuceanu-vrabie, m., crismaru, m. analiza comprehensivă a sectorului de tineret. chișinău, 2020 11. ganta, v., shamchiyeva, l. tranziția tinerelor și tinerilor spre piața muncii în republica moldova. rezultatele analizei din 2013 și 2015 privind tranziția de la școală la muncă. seria de publicații work4youth, nr. 38. organizația internațională a muncii. geneva: biroul internațional al muncii, 2016. 68 p. issn 2309-6780. 12. leccardi, c. redefining the future: youthful. new directions for child and adolescent developpment. 2006. doi:10.1002/cad.167 13. lege cu privire la tineret: nr. 215 din 29.07.2016. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2016, nr. 315-328, art. 688 [cited 24 october 2020]. available: https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=105800&lang=ro 14. national bureau of statistics. 2019 [cited 17 october 2020]. available: https://statistica.gov.md/ 15. national employmen agency. 2019 [cited 22 october 2020]. available: https://www.anofm.md/ 16. oecd. youth well-being policy review of moldova: eu-oecd youth inclusion project, paris, 2018. 100 p. [cited 20 october 2020]. available: https://www.oecd.org/countries/moldova/youth_wellbeing_policy_review_moldova.pdf 17. pîslaru, n. et. al. pilonul european al drepturilor sociale: reducerea inegalităților și a decalajelor sociale în românia. evoluții ale politicilor și inițiativelor europene din domeniul tineretului. bucuresti, 2019. 213 p. [cited 14 october 2020]. available: http://ier.gov.ro/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/final_studiul4_spos-2018.pdf 18. taylor-gooby, p. new risks and social change. new york: oxford university press, 2005. doi:10.1093/019926726x.003.0001 19. unicef. capacity gap analysis of local public authorities and of local youth councils to promote and implement youth policy at local lev. chisinau, 2017. 20. walther, a. regimes of youth transition: choice, flexibility and security of young people’s experiences across different european contexts. in: nordic journal of youth research, 2006, vol. 14, issue 2, pp. 119139. doi: 10.1177/1103308806062737 21. walther, a., & pohl, a. activating the disadvantaged. variations in addressing youth transitions across europe. in: international journal of lifelong education, 2007, vol. 26, issue 5, pp. 533-553. doi:10.1080/02601370701559631 22. worldbank. moldova: education sector public expenditure review selected issues. washington: world bank, 2018. 53 p. [cited 14 october 2020]. available: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29729/125331-wp-p161676-mdmini-per-final-for-imagebank4-2018.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y article history received 02 june 2020 accepted 01 december 2020 how to reduce the risk economy and sociology 31 june no. 1/2021 specifics of financing public procurement in the republic of moldova in the context of optimizing public finance management andrei mulic1, phd in economics, associate professor, faculty of economics science, department of finance and banking, moldova state university, galina ulian2, doctor habilitat in economics, professor, faculty of economics science, department of finance and banking, moldova state university doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-03 jel classification: h42, h44, h57, g28 czu: 339.186+336.5](478) abstract public procurement is investigated in terms of results and maximum efficiency of allocation of financial resources of the national public budget. in the context of economic development, optimization of the management of public financial resources is based on improving the legislation on public procurement and the financing mechanism. based on this, public procurement is a complex, multi-level, interdependent system, the functioning at the all public levels. the aim of the research is to conduct a comprehensive study of the main problems and features of public procurement financing in order to optimize public finance management at the national level and to develop recommendations for improving the public procurement system in the republic of moldova. the methodology is based on the structural research method. the article is based on a study of the public procurement system in the republic of moldova, analyzing its constituent elements. the analytical method was used to study the concept of public procurement. the study established the relationship between the ethical behavior of officials, the effectiveness of control and the implementation of information systems to optimize the system of financing public procurement in the republic of moldova. proposals are presented to improve the efficiency of the public financing mechanism in the context of electronic public procurement procedures within the automated information system "state register of public procurements" mtender. keywords: public procurement, public financial resources, financing mechanism, national public budgetary funds, budgetary allocations. achizițiile publice se cercetează din punctul de vedere al rezultatelor și eficienței maxime a alocării resurselor financiare ale bugetului public național. în contextul dezvoltării economice, optimizarea gestionării resurselor financiare publice se bazează pe îmbunătățirea legislației privind achizițiile publice și a mecanismului de finanțare. rezultând din aceasta, achizițiile publice sunt prezentate ca un sistem complex, pe mai multe niveluri, de categorii interdependente, a cărui funcționare ar trebui să asigure distribuția optimă a resurselor financiare publice la nivel central și local. scopul cercetării constă în realizarea unei cercetări complexe ale principalelor probleme și particularităților finanțării achizițiilor publice în scopul optimizării managementul finanțelor publice la nivel național și elaborarea recomandărilor pentru îmbunătățirea sistemului de achiziții publice în republica moldova. metodologia aplicată se fundamentează pe metoda structurală de cercetare. articolul se bazează pe studierea sistemului de achiziții publice în republica moldova, astfel analizînd elementele componente ale acestuia. metoda analitică a fost utilizată pentru cercetarea conceptului de achiziții publice, precum și legislația în vigoare privind sistemul de achiziții publice. în cadrul cercetării a fost stabilită relația dintre comportamentul etic al funcționarilor, eficacitatea controlului și implementarea sistemelor 1 id orcid 0000-0001-6207-1216 e-mail: andreimulic@yahoo.com 2 id orcid 0000-0002-0117-8359 e-mail: galina_ulian@mail.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6207-1216 mailto:andreimulic@yahoo.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0117-8359 theoretical and scientifical journal 32 june no. 1/2021 informaționale pentru optimizarea sistemului de finanțare a achizițiilor publice în republica moldova. sunt prezentate propuneri pentru îmbunătățirea eficienței mecanismului de finanțare publică în contextul procedurilor de achiziții publice electronice în cadrul sistemului informaţional automatizat “registrul de stat al achiziţiilor publice” (sia „rsap”) mtender. cuvinte-cheie: achiziții publice, resurse financiare publice, mecanism de finanțare, fonduri bugetare publice naționale, alocații bugetare государственные закупки исследуются с точки зрения результатов и максимальной эффективности распределения финансовых ресурсов национального публичного бюджета. в контексте экономического развития оптимизация управления государственными финансовыми ресурсами базируется на совершенствовании законодательства о государственных закупках и механизма финансирования. исходя их этого, государственные закупки представляют собой сложную, многоуровневую, взаимозависимую систему, функционирование которой должно обеспечивать оптимальное распределение государственных финансовых ресурсов на центральном и местном уровнях. цель исследования провести комплексное исследование основных проблем и особенностей финансирования государственных закупок с целью оптимизации управления государственными финансами на национальном уровне и разработать рекомендации по совершенствованию системы государственных закупок в республике молдова. примененная в статье методология основана на структурном методе исследования. статья основана на исследовании системы государственных закупок в республике молдова, анализируя ее составные элементы. аналитический метод был использован для исследования концепции государственных закупок, а также действующего законодательства о системе государственных закупок. в ходе исследования была установлена взаимосвязь между этичным поведением должностных лиц, эффективностью контроля и внедрением информационных систем для оптимизации системы финансирования государственных закупок в республике молдова. представлены предложения по повышению эффективности механизма государственного финансирования в контексте электронных процедур государственных закупок в рамках автоматизированной информационной системы «государственный регистр государственных закупок» (sia «rsap») mtender. ключевые слова: государственные закупки, государственные финансовые ресурсы, механизм финансирования, национальные публичные бюджетные фонды, бюджетные ассигнования. introduction currently, a system of legal norms has been developed in the republic of moldova, which regulates the relations regarding the introduction and implementation of a more efficient way of using budgetary funds – the public procurement system. the legal rules governing public procurement relations have developed and emerged in a relatively recent separate group. therefore, the relationships associated with the procurement of goods and services at the state and local level are the most relevant. public procurement means the purchase of goods, the execution of works or the provision of services for the needs of one or more contracting authorities (art. 1 of law no. 131 of 03.07.2015 on public procurement). therefore, public procurement is the purchase of goods (works, services) for the needs of state bodies using budgetary funds. in the republic of moldova, there is a relatively large share of public procurement in the structure of national public budget expenditures, therefore, the issue of forming and developing an efficient system of organization and management of public procurement is of particular importance. economy and sociology 33 june no. 1/2021 hypothesis development: 1. the public procurement process in the republic of moldova is a complex process focused on optimizing the use of public financial resources. this issue includes correcting gaps in national legislation and creating a transparent system that is resistant to political influences. 2. improving the efficiency of the use of public financial resources must be achieved by implementing modern information systems and increasing the efficiency of public procurement financing at central and local level. this aspect includes the relationships between the ethical behavior of civil servants implementing public procurement, the effectiveness of interdepartmental, community, specialized control and the optimization of the share of public procurement in the gross domestic product. literature review the specialized literature examines in detail the determinants for compliance with the rules for financing public procurement (dennis orobo and willy, 2015) (omagbon, 2016); (sandada and kambarami, 2016). these researches were realized using simplified scientific methods. improving and developing simplified public procurement financing models contributes to the use of strategic models for a broader understanding of the key factors that explain compliance with regulatory requirements in the field of public procurement. this perspective will provide a strategic understanding of public finance management policy, in order to focus on more specific and important factors for improving public procurement legislation and optimizing the funding mechanism. the evaluation of the particularities of public procurement financing in the republic of moldova involves a systemic structural analysis to establish factors that influence the establishment of regulatory requirements in the field of public procurement. the analysis of scientific papers conducted by researchers abere and muturi (dennis oribi & willy, 2015) led to the conclusion that the practices and mechanisms of financing public procurement have a significant impact on optimizing the management of public finances. according to research by gabriella marcarelli, andrea nappi civil servants should prioritize raising knowledge and awareness in public procurement. also, in order to optimize the process of financing public procurement, it is necessary to introduce advanced information systems and also stimulate suppliers to overcome legal barriers to public procurement. also, a research conducted by chi were (uzoma chi were et al., 2019) materialized the significant impact of awareness, incompetence, political interference and poor monitoring of non-compliance with the legislative framework for public procurement in developing countries. therefore, magnon (magnon, 2016) reported that the reason for the low level of public procurement standards in local and central public administration is mainly due to a low level of professionalism, insufficient media coverage and nontransparency of public procurement issues, as well as significant political interference. similarly, sandada and kambarami (sandada & kambarami, 2016) presented a study according to which compliance with rules and political intervention are key factors for optimizing the management of public finances in process of public procurement. a study by lela mélon, rok spruk concludes that the implementation of the public procurement optimization reform in denmark and the netherlands has resulted in relatively stronger controls on corruption, while a similar reform has been implemented in portugal despite a positive and sustained impact on the quality of public procurement and regulation did not lead to increased control over corruption. in the post-reform period, the decline in the quality of public procurement regulation in portugal is twice as high as the projected decline in the netherlands. the application of the relevant national legislation is the main factor in determining compliance with the strategic regulatory requirements for public procurement mentioned in this research. sutinen and couperan (sutinen & kuperan, 1999) concluded that enforcement remains an important component of a compliance regime, even with high moral obligations and social influence. also, according to this theoretical postulate, it can be concluded that the application of public procurement regulations will oblige civil servants to behave ethically and therefore to comply with public procurement rules, which will lead to optimal management of public procurement. public finances. researchers sutinen and couperan (sutinen & kuperan, 1999) pointed out that people's internal engagement (ethical behavior) can be achieved through the influence of public authorities, such as the police, employers and local and central public authorities, which will eliminate individual interest in the process of financing public procurement. theoretical and scientifical journal 34 june no. 1/2021 the publications of sjors witjes and rodrigo lozano point to the relationship between the share of public procurement in gdp and the purchasing power of public organizations (which is up to 19% of gdp in european countries). the authors of deodat mwesiumo, kjetil magnus olsen, geir arne svenning, richard glavee-geo, as a result of a study of public procurement processes in norway, concluded that financial investments, as well as costs associated with problems and obstacles to optimizing the public procurement financing system, are justified by the received higher financial benefits and results. the content of the studies by cecilia bratta, sophie hallstedta k.-h. robèrtab göran bromana, jonas oldmarkb ranges from: analysis of the procurement process in relation to the system for optimizing their financing and the influence of political frameworks that create obstacles to positive changes in the field of cooperation between participants in the public procurement process. these studies are relevant for the republic of moldova from the point of view that the study of the process of reforming the public procurement system in developing countries and can lead to improvements in terms of optimization and development of a strategic approach that could more significantly promote innovative system solutions in support of sustainable development of public procurement in the republic of moldova. despite the fact that the emphasis of the presented studies is on the problems of organizing and financing public procurement in both developed and developing countries, as well as on the driving forces (political, social, regulatory) that hinder the integration of an effective financing system in the public procurement process, research on these issues is still limited in the context of integrating this issue into optimizing public financial management. in the submitted publications, one can see inconsistencies in the scientific literature, which states that awareness and professionalism do not significantly affect compliance with regulatory requirements for public procurement financing, while institutional factors are very important in studies of the impact on the public procurement process. financing public procurement in terms of optimizing public financial management. given that the existing literature provides a limited understanding of this subject, the results of this study should be of interest to researchers, government agencies, procurement practitioners, small and medium-sized enterprises and other interested parties. in particular, the study contributes to the accumulation of knowledge about public procurement financing in the republic of moldova in the context of optimizing public financial management and offers practical conclusions for both practitioners and policymakers. data sources and used methods the study was conducted in the republic of moldova with the involvement of public sector institutions. it was estimated that there are over 200 public sector institutions in the republic of moldova. in some of these institutions, heads of public procurement departments answered key research questions. an anonymous survey, implemented in 2019, in which more than 100 employees of government agencies and employees of private companies involved in the public procurement process took part, was based on the presentation of a number of statistical data and answers to questions about the main regulatory and systemic problems of the national public procurement system in the republic. moldova in the context of optimizing public financial management, which served as the basis for this study. for the analysis of the dynamic evolution of the statistical indicators of public procurement as the number of public tenders according to the object of procurement and the value of public contracts concluded by the public procurement agency (ppa) in 2018 and 2019, the method of systematic analysis was used. in order to summarize the results regarding the activity of the public procurement system in the republic of moldova in 2019 and 2018, the comparative analysis was used. literature review was guided by the prisma (preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses) review method. the method of quantitative and qualitative analysis was applied to research the indicator of the share of public procurement in gross domestic product (%) and other indicators of the public procurement system in the republic of moldova and establish their impact to optimize finances at the macroeconomic level. a total of 6 articles from the scopus and web of science databases were selected for the review. economy and sociology 35 june no. 1/2021 data sources used for these indicators represent the data of the national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova and the report on the activity in the field of public procurement carried out during 2019 prepared by the ppa. the results of own research and discussions based on the results of an anonymous survey employees of government agencies and employees of private companies public procurement provides for: • covering the needs of the republic of moldova, at state and local level, in goods (works, services) necessary for the implementation of the functions of central and local authorities, including for the implementation of national programs for fulfilling the international obligations of the republic of moldova; • the needs of public authorities, administrative-territorial units in goods (works, services) necessary for the implementation of their functions and competencies, including for the implementation of programs at local level; • the needs of the local public administration in goods (works, services) necessary to solve the problems of local importance and to implement certain state competencies transferred to the local authorities. with the help of the public procurement system, important tasks are solved such as respecting national security, creating and supporting state material reserves, ensuring the life of the population, etc. from survey of heads of public procurement departments indicated, public procurement is an effective financial instrument of the state's social and industrial policy, as it allows support to be provided to domestic producers, including small enterprises, organizations, people with disabilities, etc., as well as to stimulate the production of competitive goods. suppliers who meet the requirements specified in the application may request a public procurement contract. this means that concluding a contract is possible with a company of any form of ownership, if it offers the most attractive conditions. a public procurement contract cannot be concluded with a company that does not meet the requirements stated by the organizers. public procurement or a general list of the needs of public authorities in public procurement planning procedures should be met with the most efficient allocation of budgetary funds. efficient allocation is not so much about saving money, but about finding the best value for money. therefore, a company that has applied to participate in a public tender must meet the customer's requirements. results of anonymous survey employees of private companies involved in process of public procurement show that public procurement system must also be open, transparent and accountable. failure to comply with these requirements will lead to a breach of public procurement principles. in some cases, the results of public procurement do not meet the stated requirements. this may be due to both the irresponsibility and lack of professionalism of the organizers and selfish reasons. the contract for the implementation of public procurement allows the company to make a profit and offer an order for a long time, so that some participants abuse the right. however, as practice has shown, this can be treated. there are many cases where dubious decisions on signing public procurement contracts have been challenged. the joint efforts of bona fide suppliers and regulators contribute to the efficiency and effectiveness of the public procurement system. public procurement is necessary to provide public authorities with the necessary goods (works, services) that meet certain requirements, in the most favorable conditions for all participants in the procurement process. both state-owned enterprises and private companies can be selected as suppliers. for private companies that took part in the survey, public procurement of a certain type of service (work) or the provision of products can be an excellent source of income. public procurement is beneficial to national enterprises for several reasons. first, the company gets a reliable source of sales for its products, which means that commercial costs are low. public procurement also guarantees the company cash flows for the services provided in full. this source of profit can be a strong incentive for the further development of the company. in the public procurement system, entities have been identified that monitor the information in the unified information system. based on the results of such monitoring, a consolidated analytical report shall be prepared, containing an assessment of the effectiveness of the procurement and measures to improve the legislation. this report is also published in a unified information system. theoretical and scientifical journal 36 june no. 1/2021 control over public procurement is carried out primarily by the public procurement agency, the court of auditors and the competition council. in the monitoring process, the above public authorities establish the reasons for the deviations and violations found, as well as make proposals for the elimination and improvement of the contractual system. the following types of control are distinguished: • interdepartmental control • community control • control by special regulatory authorities the interdepartmental control is performed by the state authorities, the central and local public administration authorities, the municipal bodies, the management authorities of the public financial funds. community control is exercised by citizens, associations of legal persons or public associations. the institutional system of public procurement includes not only the public procurement agency, the court of accounts, the national council competition council, but also the ministry of finance, the state treasury, the financial inspection, the national anticorruption center. therefore, the automated public procurement information system operating in the republic of moldova allows: saving more money for customers, increasing procurement volumes, systematizing procurement procedures, controlling not only the process of placing orders, but also the actions of suppliers and customers in the stages of concluding and executing contracts, it fully regulates the relations of all participants at all stages of the procurement process, which allows us to call the automated information system an efficient financial instrument in the public procurement system. it should be noted that a significant disadvantage that hinders the efficient development of the public procurement system in the republic of moldova is the many ways in which customers and suppliers can circumvent the law and influence the outcome of the procurement procedure. one of the main imperfections is insufficient attention to the quality of the goods provided, which allows participants to give up the supply of low-quality goods. based on the results of an anonymous survey employees of government agencies and employees of private companies in order to continuously improve the procurement legislation, it is necessary to highlight the following directions for the development of the public procurement system of the republic of moldova: • regulate and streamline anti-dumping measures in more detail; • to take into account the specifics of the purchased goods industry (works, services) when establishing the maximum amount of an advance, as well as to regulate the practice of advance payments; • standardization of calculation methods, monitoring the formation of initial (optimal) contract prices; the optimization of the national public procurement system directly influences the development of the economy of the republic of moldova. first of all, the national public procurement system ensures the practical fulfillment of the state's obligations to the population. these obligations are stated in government programs and, in order to fulfill them, it will inevitably be necessary to purchase the necessary goods, works or services. the public procurement system requires you to specify the purpose for which they are made before implementing them. on the other hand, it becomes possible to see where public funds are directed. and after implementing them, it allows you to compare with similar purchases made by private companies in the market and provide an objective assessment of the effectiveness of purchases. second, the public procurement system is an effective mechanism for the development of national private economic entities and state authorities. analyzing the report the report on the activity in the field of public procurement carried out during 2019, prepared by aap we can see: during 2019 by the contracting authorities through sia rsap (mtender) ensuring the transparency of open public tenders, 2,229 announcements were published participation, of which: • 451 announces for the purchase of services. • 594 announces for the purchase of works and • 1,184 announces for the purchase of goods [4]; economy and sociology 37 june no. 1/2021 table 1 public auction by object of procurement 594 construction works 306 food 94 transport equipment and auxiliary products to transportation 99 oil, coal and petroleum products 117 medical equipment 89 pharmaceuticals products and reagents source: developed by the authors based on the report on the activity in the field of public procurements carried out during 2019 (bratt et al., 2013, p. 11) during 2019, 13,800 additional contracts and agreements were concluded by the contracting authorities as a result of public procurement procedures, compared to 2018 with 11,527 less (uzoma chikwere et al., 2019). figure 1 aggregation of the results of 2019 and comparative analysis with the results of 2018 source: developed by the authors based on the report on the activity in the field of public procurements carried out during 2019 (uzoma chikwere et al., 2019, p. 11) this decrease in public procurement contacts from 25327 to 13,800 units in 2019 compared to 2018, in the volume of 10508.71 million. mdl in 2018 and 8939.88 million. mdl in 2019 is explained by the fact that in law 131/2015 were introduced the amendments regarding the increase of the application thresholds. thus, part of the acquisitions or turned into low value public procurements. figure 2 share of public procurements in gross domestic product (%) source: developed by the authors based on the report on the activity in the field of public procurement carried out during 2019 (uzoma chikwere et al., 2019, p. 19) the value of public contracts concluded by the public procurement agency (aap) in 2018 and 2019 was 10,508,707,208.42 mdl and 8,939,886,172.34 mdl, representing approximately 5.53 and 4.66% of gdp. therefore, about 5% of gdp is allocated through the public procurement market and acts as a powerful instrument of economic policy. at the same time, the public procurement system 2018 • 10 830 proceeding • 25 327 contracts • 10.508.707.208,42 mdl 2019 • 5 179 proceeding • 13 800 contracts • 8.939.886.172,34 mdl theoretical and scientifical journal 38 june no. 1/2021 makes it possible to optimize the issue of competition, when the only criterion is price and the only acceptable method of procurement is tendering. the economic space has a more complex form and the aim is to provide equal conditions for the development of all types of economic entities. and the conditions for the development of a large monopoly are different from those for small businesses. therefore, it becomes possible to move to a more complex development model, which takes into account factors such as the distribution of labor resources and territorial development. thus, the public procurement system creates a fair economic space, in which there are opportunities for the development of all economic entities. the public procurement system has an extraordinary anti-corruption potential. corruption occurs when a provider seeks unfair terms, such as overvaluation. state and municipal authorities make approximately 25,327 and 13,800 purchases annually according to data from 2018 and 2019. the essential reduction of non-transparent or suspicious purchases will increase confidence in the state's activities on the market. and this will contribute to the development of private initiative and to the growth of an entrepreneurial spirit, which is so necessary in the republic of moldova. the public procurement system must be efficient. its effectiveness depends on the trust of the participants. but trust comes when a number of conditions are met. the most important of these is the confidence that the system fulfills the functions for which it was created. when using the public procurement system, trust results from knowing its structure and respecting the principle that the attempt to "counterfeit" will inevitably result not only in the form of fines but also high risks of publicity. another condition is the susceptibility of the system to improvements, the ability to correct the identified deficiencies. confidence in the system will arise if those for whom it was created are directly involved in the process of improving it. and since budgetary resources are taxpayers' funds, it is not so much civil servants that should improve the allocation mechanism, but people with the confidence of the population. conclusions in order to improve the public procurement system, it is necessary to systematically and persistently eliminate the shortcomings identified by the participants in the public procurement process, in order to react significantly to gaps in legislation. it is also necessary to have the most complete information about violations in the implementation of public procurement. it doesn't matter how the information goes. from this point of view, the existence of a public portal, which offers the possibility to post information about a procurement event that may lead to a violation of the public interest, is the best solution to this problem. first, the information obtained must be carefully verified, recorded, classified and systematized. experts should determine in a timely manner whether the event occurred as a result of imperfect laws and procedures or was the result of non-compliance by officials. infringements resulting from non-compliance with the established rules are intended for investigations by other public authorities. if experts conclude that the influence of the "human factor" is obvious, the information should be promptly redirected to the authorized control authorities. if the reason is in the shortcomings of the current rules, then the experts must determine the reason and propose a way to eliminate them. the task of public authorities is to analyze them carefully and, if they agree, to introduce them into legislation. work on improving public procurement legislation and improving the funding mechanism in this area should continue, be systemic, and should aim to increase the efficiency of budgetary expenditure by closing gaps in the practical implementation of public procurement procedures. optimizing funding and improving the efficiency of the public procurement process must be achieved through the transparency of information, the correction of gaps in national legislation and the absence of political influence. creating relationships between the ethical behavior of officials, the efficiency of control and the implementation of modern information systems, will create an optimal system for financing public procurement and will improve the distribution of gdp in the republic of moldova. economy and sociology 39 june no. 1/2021 references 1. bratt, c., hallstedt, s., robèrt, k.-h., broman, g., & oldmark, j. (2013). assessment of criteria development for public procurement from a strategic sustainability perspective. journal of cleaner production, 52, 309–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.02.007 2. dennis orobo, a., & willy, m. (2015). factors affecting compliance with the public procurement and disposal regulations in kenya: a case study of county government of nyamira. international journal of economics, commerce and managemnet, 3(11), 1060–1089. 3. omagbon, p. (2016). an assessment of compliance with the public procurement act by nigerian local government. 2, 11. 4. sandada, m., & kambarami, p. (2016). the determinants of the compliance to public procurement policy requirements among public enterprises in zimbabwe. acta universitatis danubius. administratio, 8(1), article 1. http://journals.univdanubius.ro/index.php/administratio/article/view/3561 5. sutinen, j. g., & kuperan, k. (1999). a socio‐economic theory of regulatory compliance. international journal of social economics, 26(1/2/3), 174–193. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068299910229569 6. uzoma chikwere, g., dzandu, s. s. k., & dza, m. (2019). compliance issues with public procurement regulations in ghana. international journal of business and management, 14(5), 1. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v14n5p1 note: the article is a component part of the research project 20.80009.7007.15 article history received 24 december 2020 accepted 5 mai 2021 economy and sociology 87 no. 1 / 2020 predictors of under–five child mortality in zimbabwe collet muza1, phd, charles university in prague, czech republic kudzaishe mangombe2, university of zimbabwe, centre for populations, zimbabwe doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-08 jel classification: j1, j13, j14, n3, p36 udc: 314.422-053.4 (689.1) abstract the study examines the role of socio-economic and maternal factors on under–five child mortality in zimbabwe. the research is based on the analysis of the 2012 population census data. a logistic regression model was employed to determine factors that significantly affect under-five child mortality. the results revealed that maternal educational level, age at first birth, marital status, sanitation and provincial location were significant determinants of under–five child mortality. public health interventions should focus on mothers; single, formerly married, had early childbearing, uneducated, use unsafe drinking water and toilets. keywords: under-five mortality, socio–socioeconomic, maternal, determinants, binary regression, zimbabwe. acest studiu examinează impactul factorilor socio-economici și maternali asupra mortalității copiilor în vârstă de 0-5 ani în zimbabwe. cercetarea se bazează pe analiza datelor recensământului populației din 2012. pentru a determina factorii cu impact semnificativ asupra mortalității a acestei categorii de copii a fost utilizat un model de regresie logistică. rezultatele au arătat că nivelul de educație al mamei, vârsta la prima naștere, statutul marital, sanitația și mediul de reședință sunt factorii determinanți ai mortalității copiilor. reieșind din acestea, intervențiile în sănătatea publică trebuie să fie orientate spre mame singure, divorțate, cele care au născut un copil la vârstă prematură, fără studii, utilizează surse nesigure de apă și toalete. cuvinte-cheie: mortalitatea copiilor de 0-5 ani, factorii socio-economici, caracteristicile mamei, regresie binară, zimbabwe. в данном исследовании рассматриваются социально-экономические и материнские факторы смертности детей до пятилетнего возраста лет в зимбабве. исследование основано на анализе данных переписи населения 2012 года. для определения факторов, имеющих существенное влияние на смертность этой категории детей, была использована модель логистической регрессии. результаты показали, что уровень образования матери, возраст при первом рождении, семейное положение, здоровье и место жительства являются одними из определяющих факторов смертности детей. исходя из этого, меры общественного здравоохранения должны быть направлены на следующую категорию матерей: одиноких, разведенных, родивших детей в раннем возрасте, не имеющих образования, использующих небезопасные источники воды и туалеты. ключевые слова: детская смертность 0-5 лет, социально-экономические, материнские, детерминанты, бинарная регрессия, зимбабве. introduction globally, the probability of dying before reaching the age of five is estimated at 45 deaths per 1000 live births. this translates into approximately 59 million childhood deaths every year throughout the world (un 2017). studies have revealed that the majority of this death (95%) occur in the sub-saharan 1 © collet muza, colletmuza@gmail.com 2 © kudzaishe mangombe, kudzimangobee@gmail.com mailto:colletmuza@gmail.com theoretical and scientifical journal 88 no. 1 / 2020 and south asia (chadoka-mutanda and odimegwu 2017). in sub-saharan africa the under–five mortality has declined by 49% from 183 in 1990 to 93 per 1000 children in 2015, this is still unacceptably high as 1 in 11 children aged below five years still dies every year compared with 1 in 147 on developed countries (un 2017). an estimated 45% of newborn babies die within the first month of being born as a result of infections, birth asphyxia, preterm birth complications or intrapartum – related complications (liu johnson et al. 2012, chadoka-mutanda and odimegwu 2017). however, a large proportion of this mortality is avoidable mortality. specific causes of death including pneumonia, undernutrition, diarrhoea and malaria account for 50% of the death that occurs after the first 30 days of life and before turning five years (black et al. 2010, liu oza et al. 2015, chadoka mutanda and odimegwu 2017, black et al. 2013). access to health and family planning by girls and mothers before pregnancy, during and after delivery is vital for the welfare of both the mother and the survival of the child (dodzo and mhloyi 2017). while immediate and exclusive breastfeeding for six months and immunisation is essential for the survival of children beyond five years (liu et al. 2015, black et al. 2013). furthermore, studies have shown that improvements in sanitation, safe drinking water, vaccinations, and exclusive breastfeeding can reduce childhood deaths caused by diarrhoea and pneumonia (browne and barrett 1991, liu et al. 2015, pradhan et al. 2018). mothers are the primary caregivers of children under five. their health-seeking behaviour during, before and after pregnancy tends to influence the chances of child survival during the first five years of life. literature has shown that the access to health of mothers is, in turn, defined by maternal education, province, residence (urban–rural), marital status (browne and barrett 1991, black et al. 2010). to the extent that women are not empowered to seek such services, such women might experience high infant and child mortality, accompanied by high maternal mortality (black et al. 2013, cutler et al. 2006, caldwell 1986). mass education has been shown to reduce child mortality in developing countries (caldwell 1976, goujon et al. 2015). mass education opens access to family planning, increases, utilisation of health services, and better employment for mothers. moreover, female mass education reduces childbearing that is too early, too close and too late in the mother’s reproductive life, typical of high infant and child mortality societies. child mortality has fallen both the rich and poor developing societies. furthermore, empowered women are on the forefront in experiencing and leading infant and child mortality decline (muza 2019, reher 2004, caldwell 1976). several researches have shown that mothers age at last birth, age first birth, mothers level of education, sanitation, source of drinking water, wealth status, preceding birth interval, birth weight and birth order are significantly associated with risk of dying during childhood (kembo and ginneken 2009, kembo and ginneken 2011, mturi and curtis 1995, black et al. 2013). taken together, these factors influence child survival probability. mother's province of residence affects their children's mortality experiences. this stems from variations in provincial economic and socio-cultural environments, which may influence children’s chances of survival. according to zimstat (2012), infant mortality for the five years preceding the survey ranged from 36 deaths per 1000 live births in bulawayo province. during the same period, it ranged from 49 deaths per 1000 children in the province of bulawayo to 87 deaths per 1000 children in the province of manicaland. children in the urban provinces and the two provinces of matabeleland were less exposed than their counterparts in other provinces to the risk of dying in childhood. during the same period, the under-five mortality rate was 80 deaths per 1,000 live births in rural areas compared to 62 deaths per 1,000 live births in urban areas (zimstat 2012). access to health facilities also plays a role in affecting the mortality rates between the urban and rural areas. children of widowed women experienced the highest infant and under-five mortality rates of 63 and 97 respectively, followed by those of divorced (53 and 79 respectively) and married (49 and 72, respectively). infant and under-five mortality rates were 49 per 1,000 live births and 73 per 1,000 children born to women who responded as unmarried at the time of the census. infant and under-five mortality rates were 49 per 1,000 live births and 73 per 1,000 children respectively for children born to women who responded as never married at the time of the census. it may not be surprising that kids of formerly married females suffered the largest mortality rate as it may reflect the elevated correlation between their husbands and children's mortality. economy and sociology 89 no. 1 / 2020 zimbabwe is one of the countries in the sub-saharan africa region, where under-five mortality is still unacceptably high. the under-five mortality in zimbabwe has declined from 103 to 69 death per 1000 live births in 1999 to 2015 respectively (zimstat and icf 2015). the progress or gains in underfive mortality decline has been affected significantly in the 1990s due to hiv/aids–induced mortality (adetunji 2000, garrenne and gakusi 2006, zimsat 2012), economic adjustment structural programmes (esap) in the 1990s (kebede et al. 2019, lutz et al. 2015) and the general economic collapse in 2000 (zimstat 2012). in 1994, the high prevalence of hiv among adults of reproductive age was accountable for 61% of under–five deaths. goujon et al. (2015), have argued that mortality has stalled or increased in sub-saharan africa because of lack of investments in female education in the 1990s (goujon et al. 2015, muza 2019). in zimbabwe, the national child survival strategy for the 2010 – 15 report has shown that hiv/aids accounted for 22% of childhood deaths. specific causes of death like pneumonia, diarrhoea, measles and malaria are common and still contribute to the deaths that occur before children reach fifth birthday (liu et al. 2015). this means zimbabwe has still a high prevalence of infectious diseases as defined by (omran 2005). thus zimbabwe is one of the countries that failed to meet the mdg-4 goal of reducing deaths by 2/3 by 2015 (chadoka-mutanda and odimegwu). it remains unknown if zimbabwe can achieve the newly set agenda 2030 for sustainable goals (sdgs). previous studies have explored the determinants of under–five mortality utilising country’s specific demographic health survey (aheto 2019, akinyemi et al. 2013, kaberuka et al. 2017). there is dearth of studies which have used census data. in most african countries, civil registration and vital statistics (crvs) are not easily utilisable. thus, leaving most countries relying on their censuses to inform planning. nevertheless, existing census data sources are underused and insufficiently analysed because of lack of resources and time. therefore, utilising the census data will enable the production of indicators at highly disaggregated levels. this study seeks to investigate the socio-economic and maternal predictors of under-five mortality in zimbabwe using recent 2012 census data. data and methods this study draws on data from the 2012 zimbabwe national census (zimstat 2012). the decennial national censuses are used to inform policy decisions and planning in zimbabwe. the 2012 census collected data on various demographic and health indicators including maternal and child health, as well as fertility data, employment, education, occupation, migration and mortality. from the census, a total of 1,373,263 live births occurred five years before the census, and 47,401 under-five deaths occurred. model specification the study employs mosley and chen (1984) model of infant and child mortality in developing countries. the model is based on the assumption that socio-economic determinants of under-five mortality essentially work through a common set of biological mechanisms, or proximate determinants, to apply an effect on mortality. moreover, variables considered in this study were selected based on previous studies that have been conducted at the global level. potential determinant factors expected to be correlated with under-five child mortality were included as variables of the study. variables considered in this study were categorised into dependent and explanatory/predictor variables. dependent variables data was extracted from the 2012 census section e (for women age 15-49 years). this section, with regards to women’s childbirth history, is solely answered by the women. the section on the women’s questionnaire asks the status of the last live birth, (when was (name’s) last live birth? this was used during data analysis to filter birth that occurred five years before the census (2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008). later the survival status of the last birth was ascertained by the following question: is the child still alive? the outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). hence, this variable exhibited a binary outcome; a child born within the previous five years and still alive a value of one (1) was assigned. on the other hand, a value of zero (0) was assigned to those deceased children within the previous five years. independent variables in this study, socio-economic, demographic, and environmental possible determinants of child mortality related factors were considered. demographic variables: marital status, age of mother at first theoretical and scientifical journal 90 no. 1 / 2020 and last birth. socio-economic variables: maternal education and environmental factors: place of residence, sanitation: sources of drinking water and type of toilet. education was categorised as: “1= no education”, “1= primary”, “3= secondary and tertiary”. place of residence of the child was according to provinces which were: 1=bulawayo, 2=manicaland, 3=mashonaland central, 4=mashonaland east, 5=mashonaland west, 6=matabeleland north, 7=matabeleland south, 8=midlands, 9=masvingo and, 10=harare. harare and bulawayo are also metropolitan cities. marital status categorised as (1=never married, 2=married, 3=formerly married, which included divorced/separated and widowed). maternal age: the respondents were asked about their age in completed years. however, for the purposes of the present analysis, mother’s age at first birth ages were grouped into 4 categories such as: <20, 20–29, 30–39 and 40–49 years. maternal age at last birth into two categories, 1=<20 years: 2=40–49 years. toilet facility: categorised as 1=safe toilet (flush toilet, ventilated/improved latrine or toilet) and 2=unsafe toilet (bucket, open field, bush). drinking water source: 1=safe (piped water, protected: wells, borehole, spring or rainwater): 2=unsafe water (unprotected; rain, spring, well water, other.). methods of analysis data were statistically analysed using spss version 22 and analysed at three levels (univariate, bivariate and multivariate). descriptive statistics were presented in frequency tables, testing for associations between two variables was done using χ2 (were used to examine the statistically significant relationship between sociodemographic and child survival), while at the multivariate level logistic regression model was used. the dependent variable for this study was dichotomised; hence, a binary regression model (negative log-log) was used to analyse the factors associated under-five mortality. when the probability of a case is very low or very big, negative log-log models are frequently used (mangombe and kalule-sabiti 2018, mccullagh 1980). the adverse log-log feature is asymmetrical, unlike logit and probit models. in spss, the function of the nlog log link is the same as the additional loglog in stata. the complete number of participants reported to be alive was 1,325,682 and dead were 47,401 children, representing only 3.5 % of the total children born. results univariate results table 1 presents the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the respondents and their under–five survival status. of the total eligible under–five children born alive (1,373,263) in zimbabwe since 2008-2012, 1,325,682 (96.5%) were alive, and 47,401 (3.5%) were dead. the results indicate that harare (capital city) had the highest number of births recorded (17%) while bulawayo the second biggest city had the lowest (4.4%). the results show that 13.5 % of the children were born in manicaland province compared to 9.2% in mashonaland central. moreover, majority of children, 57% and 30% were born to mother’s age at first birth in the age group 20-29 and 30-39 years old respectively while 7% and 4.6% were born to mother’s age at first birth age group <20 and 40-49 years old respectively. the study further reveals that most last births (98.6%) occurred to mothers <29 years old. table 1, further shows that at least 29.9% of children born were to mothers with primary education compared to 70.1% of those born to mothers with secondary and higher. an overwhelming 87% of under-five children had mothers who were married. about an equal percentage of the respondents and children had safe and unsafe toilets facilities. of water safety, 71% and 29% of children had access to safe and unsafe water respectively. table 1 frequencies and percent distribution of explanatory variables, 2012, zimbabwe variable frequency percent alive (yes) 1,325,862 96.5 dead (no) 47,401 3.5 provinces bulawayo 60,830 4.4 manicaland 185,088 13.5 mashonaland central 125,720 9.2 economy and sociology 91 no. 1 / 2020 variable frequency percent mashonaland east 142,636 10.4 mashonaland west 166,596 12.1 matabeleland north 70,695 5.1 matabeleland south 63,373 4.6 midlands 169,297 12.3 masvingo 152,032 11.1 harare 236,996 17.3 mothers age at first birth <20 years 104,534 7.6 20–29 years 779,174 56.7 30–39 years 424,074 30.9 40–49 years 65,481 4.8 mothers age at last birth < 29 years 1,353,955 98.6 30–49 years 19,308 1.4 marital status never married 65,889 4.6 married 1,196,778 87.1 formerly married 113,596 8.1 education no education 3,639 0.2 primary 407,409 29.7 secondary and higher 962,215 70.1 toilet type safe sanitation 688,752 50.2 unsafe sanitation 684,511 49.8 water safety safe 976,580 71.1 unsafe 396,683 28.9 source: zimsatat (2012) and own calculations. bivariate results table 2 shows the relationship between the socio–demographic characteristics and survival status of their under-five children. a chi-square (χ2) test for independence was used to assess whether there were significant associations between each of the background variable and survival status of the children below five years. the results reveal that all the selected variables; provinces, mothers age at last birth, mother’s age at first birth, marital status, mother’s education, sanitation variables water safety and toilet type were all statistically significant at p< 0.05, 0.01 or 0.001. table 2 cross–tabulation of under–five mortality and selected background characteristics, 2012, zimbabwe dead % alive % χ2 total survival status total 3.5 96.5 1,373,263 provinces 0.018 bulawayo 2.9 97.1 60,830 manicaland 3.9 96.1 185,088 mashonaland central 3.5 96.5 125,720 mashonaland east 3.7 96.3 142,636 theoretical and scientifical journal 92 no. 1 / 2020 dead % alive % χ2 total mashonaland west 3.6 96.4 166,596 matabeleland north 3.0 97.0 70,695 matabeleland south 2.9 97.1 63,373 midlands 3.6 96.4 169,297 masvingo 3.4 96.6 152,032 harare 3.1 96.9 236,996 mothers age at first birth 0.021 <20 years 4.2 95.8 104,534 20–29 years 3.2 96.8 779,174 30–39 years 3.6 96.4 424,074 40–49 years 4.6 95.4 65,481 mothers age at last birth 0.006 < 29 years 3.4 96.6 1,353,955 30–49 years 4.4 95.6 19,308 marital status 0.028 never married 3.9 96.1 65,889 married 3.2 96.8 1196,778 formerly married 4.4 95.6 113,596 education 0.016 no education 4.1 95.9 3,639 primary 3.9 96.1 407,409 secondary and higher 3.3 96.7 962,215 toilet type 0.007 safe sanitation 3.3 96.7 688752 unsafe sanitation 3.6 96.4 684511 water safety 0.002 safe 3.4 96.6 976,580 unsafe 3.5 96.5 396,683 notes: p < 0.05. source: zimstat (2012) and own calculations. table 2, also, reveals that a significant relationship was found between provinces and survival status. the study also indicates that child mortality is lowest among children born to mothers from bulawayo and matabeleland south at (2.9%) for each province. manicaland had the highest percentage of under-five mortality, 3.9%, and mashonaland provinces had an average of about 3.6% per province. mother’s age at first birth and under-five mortality show statistically significant a u-shaped relationship. the mortality of under-five children born to older mothers, 40-49 and youngest mothers <20 years were 4.6 and 4.2% respectively the study also indicates that child mortality is higher among children born to mothers who had their last birt h at aged 30-49 years while mother’s aged less than 29 years had the lowest (3.4%) under-five mortality. the study further reveals that child death to mothers who never married had a higher rate of child mortality compared to married women. a statistically significant relationship was found between the level of mother’s education level and under-five mortality. women with no education had higher (4.1%), than primary, secondary and higher education, which had 3.9% and 3.3% respectively. there was a significant association in under-five mortality between and availability of safe toilets. about four percent (3.6%) of death were recorded among children who resided in households with unsafe toilets compared to 3.3% with safe toilets. another important finding was a marginal difference in child mortality between children whose household had access to safe water (3.4%) and unsafe water (3.5%). economy and sociology 93 no. 1 / 2020 multivariate results. in order to examine the factors that determine the under–five child mortality rate in zimbabwe, a negative log-log logistic regression model was fitted, and the results are presented in table 3. the results indicated that provinces, mothers’ age at first birth, marital status, education, toilet type and water safety were the main predictors of child survival. mashonaland provinces (central, east and west), manicaland, midlands and masvingo provinces were less likely to experience child survival than harare province. the place of residence (province) shows a statistically significant relationship with under-five child mortality. children from the following matabeleland provinces: matabeleland south and matabeleland north had a higher risk of dying before five years of age (or= 1.05, p<0.001 and or=1.04, p<0.001) respectively than harare province. in addition, children from manicaland province were less likely to die compared to harare province (or=o.94, p<0.001). the mother’s age at first birth revealed a strong association with child survival. women who had their first birth at <20 years were more likely to have reported a child who died before five years (or=1.03, p<0.001) than those who first gave birth at 40-49 years. there was an unexpected finding by women had had their first birth aged 20 29 years who had the highest likelihood ratio (or=1,1, p<0.001) of a child under*five mortality than any other age group. mothers who have last birth at age <29 years were less likely to experience child death than older mothers at age 40-49 years, although this likelihood was not statistically significant. it can be seen from table 3, that children born to mothers who reported that they were never married had more risks of dying before age five years when compared to those born to married mothers (or=1.028, p<0.001). under-five children born to formerly*married mothers also had more likelihood of dying (or=1.149, p<0.001) compared to children of formerly married mothers. children born to mothers with secondary and higher education (or=0.953, p<0.1) and primary education (or=0.96, p<0.01) were less likely die before five years than those of women with no education. the statistics show that children born to mothers who had unsafe water were more likely to die before the age of five years (or=1.006, p < 0.05). children who had access to safe toilet facilities were less likely to die (or=0.990, p < 0.01) than children with unsafe toilet. table 3 odds ratio of selected predictors of under-five mortality, 2012, zimbabwe 95% ci exponentiated β lower upper threshold – 1.016 – 1.093 – 0.938 provinces harare (ref.) bulawayo 1.043**** 0.027 0.056 manicaland 0.946**** – 0.065 – 0.045 mashonaland central 0.984*** – 0.028 – 0.005 mashonaland east 0.961**** – 0.050 – 0.029 mashonaland west 0.972**** – 0.038 – 0.017 matabeleland north 1.044**** 0.029 0.057 matabeleland south 1.058**** 0.041 0.071 midlands 0.968**** – 0.043 – 0.022 masvingo 0.989** – 0.022 0.002 mother's age first birth 40–49 years (ref.) <20 years 1.036**** 0.020 0.050 20–29 years 1.105**** 0.088 0.112 30–39 years 1.073**** 0.058 0.083 mother's age at last t birth 30–49 years (ref.) <29 years 0.972 – 0.107 0.051 marital status married (ref.) theoretical and scientifical journal 94 no. 1 / 2020 notes: negative log–log regression. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01, ****p < 0.001 source: zimstat (2012) and own calculations. discussion and conclusions the results of the multivariate analysis revealed that in general, the strength of the independent variables with dependent variables under-five (u5mr) were strong for the period under consideration. the provincial inequalities in the odds ratio of the mortality burden of u5mr were statistically significant. harare, bulawayo matabeleland north and south had the highest odds of under-five mortality. since both harare and bulawayo are metropolitan cities, this finding is not consistent with other studies that have found lower risks of under-five mortality. it is possible that the high odds of under-five mortality in the metropolitan cities (harare and bulawayo) than rural areas is related to the deteriorating socio*economic conditions in zimbabwe (zimstat and icf 2016). urban cities in zimbabwe faced water and sanitation in 2008 leading to the resurgence of infectious diseases such as cholera (zimstat and icf 2015) the finding of high under-five mortality in matabeleland north and south and bulawayo than in mashonaland provinces of (central, south, east), manicaland and masvingo provinces ties very well with the hypothesis that provincial inequalities of child survival in zimbabwe are perhaps driven by socio-economic and cultural differentials (liu et al. 2015, adedini et al. 2015). the geo-socio-cultural regions in zimbabwe composed of predominantly 2 groups, ndebele speaking people in matabeleland provinces (bulawayo, matabeleland north and south), and shona speaking in seven remaining provinces. similar, results have been reported in nigeria (adedini et al. 2015). unlike kembo and ginnkem (2009) who found u-shaped under-five mortality curve by mother’s age at first birth, this research finds that the mortality risks for under-five is higher for children born to mothers of 20-40 years of age groups. the study expected to find high mortality risks to children born to very young mothers <20 years and older mothers 40-49 years old. although the statistic was not significant, mothers who had their last birth <29 years had less likelihood of underfive child death than mothers who had their last birth at 30-49 years. this is in line with other studies that find under-five mortality risks increases in older reproductive age groups (mugura et al. 2018, kembo and ginnekem 2011, adedini et al. 2015). children born to formerly married mothers had more likelihood of death than those born to married and never married. it is possible that such mothers might be vulnerable widows given the patriarchal nature of zimbabwe, which promotes the intergenerational marriage of older men to younger girls (mhloyi 1988, tabutin et al. 2004). it is possible to hypothesise that such male partners will die before the wife leaving the mothers vulnerable. this might be amplified by the fact that zimbabwe has a high prevalence rate of hiv, which kills more men than women in reproductive ages 95% ci never married 1.028**** 0.013 0.043 formerly married 1.149**** 0.130 0.148 education no education (ref.) secondary and higher 0.953* – 0.098 0.002 primary 0.960*** – 0.047 – 0.035 toilet type safe sanitation (ref) unsafe sanitation 1.006** 0.001 0.013 water safety unsafe (ref.) safe 0.990*** – 0.017 – 0.004 χ2 df sig. pearson 3867.105 3204 0.000 deviance 3355.05 3204 0.031 economy and sociology 95 no. 1 / 2020 (zimstat 2012). moreover, hiv is one of the leading causes of under-five mortality (global burden of disease collaborative network 2018). overall this finding suggests the need for protective policies for children to divorced separated and widowed women. the findings of this study show that under-five mortality decreased with increases in the mother’s educational status. this finding is line with other studies in zimbabwe (kembo and ginnekem 2009, kembo 2011, in nigeria, (adedini et al. 2015) and in kenya, (gruebner lautenbach et al. 2015). this is probably because maternal education has been found to better women’s socioeconomic status, nutrition, housing, sanitation, access to reproductive health, family planning, and child health services (caldwell 1976,) all of which reduce under-five mortality (caldwell 1986, cutler et al. 2006). maternal education was also found to be an essential factor in the european historical child mortality revolutions (reher 2004, dyson 2013). this suggests the need for empowering girls beyond universal primary education as was proposed by mdg-2. the findings of this study indicated that the provision of improved drinking water and toilets to households has a stronger impact on under-five mortality reduction. this finding supports the thesis that exogenous factors are dominant during the childhood stage (kembo and ginnekem 2009, mosley and chen 1984). table 1, above revealed that only about half of the households had improved sanitation. this suggests that zimbabwe needs to invest more on water and sanitation improvement. there were significant limitations to the research which should be taken into consideration when interpreting the findings of this study. first, a recall prejudice for household death documents may have underestimated numbers slightly. at the same time, data on deaths reported by respondents during surveys are also incomplete partly because some relatives are reluctant to discuss details of their deceased relatives. however, i am confident that this bias is negligible since i only used the data about the last born kid. second, since i only looked at the last born baby, this research did not consider all children born alive who died. moreover, my measure did not include maternal mortality, which could have resulted in less reported under-five deaths in zimbabwe. third, it is possible that age heaping of under-five deaths might have affected the study findings. children under five ages might have been reported older than their actual age, hence their ages plausibly fell outside the under-five age criteria. finally, the combination of exposure variables in the model is only one of the possible outcomes, and it should, therefore, be borne in mind that these are not the only possible risk factors that could predict under-five deaths in zimbabwe. other factors, such as birth intervals, breastfeeding duration, wealth, place of birth etc., were also discovered to be significant predictors of under-five mortality (dodzo et al. 2016, kembo and ginnekem 2009). some of this data, however, was not accessible from the census and could not, therefore, be used. notwithstanding these constraints, this is the first study to my understanding that used a comprehensive national census data to explore risk factors of under-five death in zimbabwe at the individual level. the research showed that individual and socio-economic risk variables differ between provinces, maternal age at birth, maternal education, marital status, sanitation and secure drinking water. public health interventions on under-five mortality should ideally include improvements in maternal education, toilet sanitation, and provision of safe drinking water. promoting birth postponement by younger mothers and birth stopping before older reproductive ages should also be at the core 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[citat 29 februarie 2020]. disponibil: https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/fr322/fr322.pdf article history received 05 may 2020 accepted 25 may 2020 https://dspace.cuni.cz/bitstream/handle/20.500.11956/111233/140080265.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y https://dspace.cuni.cz/bitstream/handle/20.500.11956/111233/140080265.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y https://dspace.cuni.cz/bitstream/handle/20.500.11956/111233/140080265.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y https://dspace.cuni.cz/%20bitstream/handle/20.500.11956/111233/140080265.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y https://dspace.cuni.cz/%20bitstream/handle/20.500.11956/111233/140080265.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/781571521530863121/pdf/124419-pub-public-pubdate-3-20-18.pdf http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/781571521530863121/pdf/124419-pub-public-pubdate-3-20-18.pdf https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2017-revision.html https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2017-revision.html https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/census/documents/zimbabwe/zwe_censuspreliminary2012.pdf https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/census/documents/zimbabwe/zwe_censuspreliminary2012.pdf https://zimbabwe.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/mortality_thematic.pdf https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/fr322/fr322.pdf theoretical and scientifical journal 10 no. 1 / 2020 exchange market pressure index as a macroeconomic risk measuring instrument tatiana colesnicova1, phd in economics, associate professor, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova rodica perciun2, habilitation in economics, associate professor, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova alexandra tvircun3, phd student, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-01 jel classification: e44, f4, f47, g01 udc: 330.131.7:336 abstract the financial sector of the republic of moldova belongs to the developing ones and is characterized by a higher level of risk and, therefore, a higher likelihood of a systemic crisis. globalization and development of advanced information technologies not only create great opportunities for rapid economic development, but also pose serious security threats to the economic development of states, especially in a developing economy. in these conditions, the issue of ensuring the financial stability of the state is becoming increasingly relevant. the state of the financial and foreign exchange market represents one of the most important aspects of the financial security of the state. this study has been developed as part of the scientific project 15.817.06.02a "development of tools for measuring the financial stability of the state". the study analyzes various macrofinancial risk management tools. the purpose of this study was to calculate the pressure index on the foreign exchange market of both the republic of moldova and the main partner countries in terms of international trade. the results of related studies conducted by the authors of this work, which revealed that stability indicators in the foreign exchange market are associated with foreign trade risks served as an argument for the authors of the work to calculate the pressure index on the currency market of romania and the russian federation for comparison with the indicators of the republic of moldova. methods used in research include theoretical and comparative approaches, descriptive statistics and econometric models. the results of the research showed that international trade and the foreign exchange market are interdependent. the first can be considered a channel for transmitting the currency crisis, since demand increases with increasing imports, and this leads to increased pressure on the foreign exchange market. increased exports reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market. but the greatest impact on the foreign exchange market in the republic of moldova is made by remittances from abroad, which are directly correlated with the dynamics of labor exports. at the same time, it was concluded that at present, due to macroprudential regulation, there are no linear dependencies in financial markets and, therefore, there are no correlations, but only the interdependence of variables. keywords: macroeconomic risk, financial instability, currency crisis, pressure index on the foreign exchange market, countercyclical macroeconomic policies, macroprudential regulation. sectorul financiar al republicii moldova aparține celor emergente și se caracterizează printr-un nivel de risc mai ridicat și, prin urmare, cu o probabilitate mai mare de apariție a crizei sistemice. globalizarea şi dezvoltarea tehnologiilor informaţionale avansate generează nu doar mari oportunităţi pentru o dezvoltare economică rapidă, dar creează şi grave ameninţări pentru securitatea, dezvoltarea economică a statelor, mai ales cu o economie emergentă. în aceste condiţii, problema asigurării stabilităţii financiare a statului capătă o amploare tot mai semnificativă. unul dintre cele mai importante aspecte ale securităţii financiare 1 © tatiana colesnicova, ctania@gmail.com 2 © rodica perciun, rodica21@gmail.com 3 © alexandra tvircun, alexandra_tvircun@yahoo.com mailto:rodica21@gmail.com mailto:alexandra_tvircun@yahoo.com economy and sociology 11 no. 1 / 2020 a unui stat este starea pieței financiar-valutare. prezentul studiul a fost elaborat în cadrul proiectului 15.817.06.02a „elaborarea instrumentarului de măsurare a stabilităţii financiare a statului” și analizează diferite instrumente de gestionare a riscurilor macrofinanciare. scopul prezentei cercetări a constat în calcularea indicelui de presiune al pieței valutare atât a republicii moldova, cât și a principalelor țări partenere din punct de vedere al comerțului international. drept argument al deciziei autorilor de a calcula indicele presiunii valutare a româniei și a federației ruse în coraport cu cel al republicii moldova pot servi rezultatele altor studii efectuate de autori, care demonstrează faptul că indicatorii de stabilitate pe piața valutară sunt asociați riscurilor comerciale externe. metodele utilizate includ abordări teoretice și comparative, statistica descriptivă şi modele econometrice. rezultatele studiului au arătat că comerțul internațional și piața valutară sunt interdependente primul poate fi considerat un canal de transmitere a crizei valutare, deoarece odată cu majorarea importurilor crește cererea, iar aceasta duce la majorarea presiunii asupra pieței valutare. iar majorarea exporturilor reduce presiunea asupra pieței valutare, dar cel mai mare impact asupra pieței valutare în condițiile republicii moldova il au remitențele din străinătate care sunt într-o corelație directă cu dinamica exporturilor de muncă. totodată, s-a ajuns la concluzia că, în prezent, datorită reglementărilor macroprudențiale, pe piețele financiare nu există dependențe liniare și, în consecință, nu există corelații, doar interdependență variabilă. cuvinte-cheie: risc macroeconomic, instabilitate financiară, criză valutară, indicele presiunii asupra pieței valutare, politici macroeconomice contraciclice, reglementare macroprudențială. финансовый сектор республики молдова относится к развивающимся и характеризуется более высоким уровнем риска и, следовательно, более высокой вероятностью возникновения системного кризиса. глобализация и развитие передовых информационных технологий не только открывают большие возможности для быстрого экономического развития, но и создают серьезные угрозы безопасности экономическому развитию государств, особенно в условиях развивающейся экономики. в этих условиях вопрос обеспечения финансовой устойчивости государства становится все более актуальным. одним из важнейших аспектов финансовой безопасности государства является состояние финансово-валютного рынка. данное исследование было разработано в рамках научного проекта 15.817.06.02а «разработка инструментов для измерения финансовой устойчивости государства». в исследовании анализируются различные инструменты управления макро-финансовыми рисками. целью данного исследования явилось вычисление индекса давления на валютный рынок как республики молдова, так и основных стран-партнеров с точки зрения международной торговли. результаты предыдущих исследований авторов выявили, что показатели стабильности на валютном рынке связаны с внешнеторговыми рисками. это послужило аргументом для решения авторов работы рассчитать индекс давления на валютный рынок румынии и российской федерации для сравнения с показателями республики молдова. используемые методы включают теоретический и сравнительный подходы, описательную статистику и эконометрические модели. результаты исследования показали, что международная торговля и валютный рынок взаимозависимы. первый можно считать каналом передачи валютного кризиса, поскольку с ростом импорта увеличивается спрос, а это приводит к усилению давления на валютный рынок. увеличение экспорта снижает давление на валютный рынок. но наибольшее влияние на валютный рынок в республике молдова оказывают денежные переводы из-за рубежа, которые находятся в прямой корреляции с динамикой экспорта рабочей силы. в то же время, был сделан вывод о том, что в настоящее время из-за макропруденциального регулирования не существует линейных зависимостей на финансовых рынках и, следовательно, нет корреляций, а только взаимозависимость переменных. ключевые слова: макроэкономический риск, финансовая нестабильность, валютный кризис, индекс давления на валютный рынок, антициклическая макроэкономическая политика, макропруденциальное регулирование. introduction during the transformation stage, the role of national regulation of the financial market of the republic of moldova increases with the goal of preventing crisis development. given that the financial sector of the theoretical and scientifical journal 12 no. 1 / 2020 republic of moldova belongs to emerging markets, it is characterized by higher levels of risk, and, therefore, a higher likelihood of a systemic crisis. financial crisis represents an essential element of the systemic economic crisis. the overlapping of two crises makes it difficult to follow the path of sustainable growth and makes structural and institutional reforms a necessity. periods of financial instability are accompanied by significant socio-economic losses. macroeconomic shocks can affect the financial sector through two main channels: first of all, they affect the value and quality of assets that are held in their portfolios by financial institutions; secondly, in terms of general economic instability, the banking sector indicators are deteriorating. an up to date study of systemic risk, the relationship of its indicators with the main macroeconomic indicators, the quantitative assessment of accumulated risk and the development of macroeconomic policies to prevent the buildup of systemic imbalances presents relevance. the following systemic risks present a potentially greater negative effect for the national economy:  bankruptcy of certain financial institutions;  recession in the real sector, negatively affecting the stability of most financial institutions;  hidden accumulation of imbalances in the financial sector during the cycle (in particular, the rapid growth of unsecured lending, massive investments of revalued assets). systemic risks arising in one of the segments extend to other segments of the financial sector and lead to a deterioration in the overall macroeconomic dynamic. features of the financial market of the republic of moldova are associated with the presence of many macroeconomic risks of a systemic crisis (systemic crises are associated with the passage of the country and the world through deep institutional and technological changes, with a change in the technological base, which brings the economy to a whole new level of systemic efficiency), such as: • weak national currency; • high level of dollarization of the economy; • growing external debt; • budget deficit; • low gdp growth rate; • sustainable current account deficit; • weak banking regulation; • underdevelopment of the stock market and specialized credit and financial institutions. a significant channel for the emergence and spread of a crisis in the republic of moldova is the foreign economic sector (which comes in the form of an increase in remittances and a growth rate of imports). crises spread between countries as the key macroeconomic indicators change. the world economic and financial systems are becoming more integrated due to the rapid expansion of international trade in goods, services and financial assets. along with the intensification of economic integration processes, there is an increase in the level and pace of financial integration. two systemic crises in the republic of moldova (in 1998 and 20082009) were induced by shocks in the balance of payments. however, the ways in which a crisis spreads can vary. thus, in accordance with the scientific characteristics, the crisis of 2015 in the republic of moldova has the features of both a currency and a banking crisis, which in its turn is defined as a complex crisis. during the crisis period, there was a significant financial and macroeconomic imbalance (“overheating” of the domestic debt market, a breakdown in the economic agents’ expense dynamics from the dynamics of their income, etc.). degree of scientific approach and its reflections in the specialized literature existing methods and tools for assessing the financial sector are developed by the world bank and the imf (financial sector assessment program – fsap); committee attached to the bank for international settlements (basel committee on banking supervision); oecd, international securities regulatory organization (iosco), international association of insurance supervisors (iais), international accounting standards board (iasb); the financial stability board (coordinator of the plenipotentiary representatives of the national central banks, the ministries of finance and financial market regulation of the world's most developed countries, and the major g-20 international financial organizations) and others (perciun 2014; colesnicova 2015; perciun, colesnicova et al. 2018). it should be noted that the most commonly used crisis prevention instrument is the early warning systems, which allow rapid identification of problems in the economy, based on indicators that emit signals, which facilitates the prompt taking of crisis prevention measures. these early warning systems can be economy and sociology 13 no. 1 / 2020 defined as a set of processes, models, indicators, which summarize the information and data needed to identify the risks faced by financial institutions, generally the financial system, allowing the forecast of a crisis in a certain period of time in the future (perciun 2014). the most updated, developed and applied in practice methods for assessing the risks of the financial sector are the following: 1) the signal, or nonparametric method; 2) probit and logit modeling; 3) building leading indices of crisis. in contemporary research, the methodology of the “signal” approach has become quite widespread. the “signal” approach using by graciela kaminsky, saul lizondo and carmen reinhartin in 1998 (kaminsky, lizondo, reinhart 1998), is based on an analysis of the behavior of a specific set of macroeconomic and financial indicators, which, in crisis-free periods, refer to the pre-crisis periods and periods of crisis implementation as private. a signal of an approaching crisis, given by one or another private indicator, is considered to be going beyond the range of acceptable (threshold) values. if a private indicator gives out a signal for the predetermined period of time before the crisis (called a “signal window”), then such a signal is referred to as “good”. on the contrary, if a private indicator gives a signal, but the crisis does not occur during the signal window, then such a signal is considered “bad” (“noise”). the length of the "signal window" is set expertly. thus, based on the analysis of several works, the information on the capacity of indicators to predict the crisis is presented (table 1). table 1 trends of indicators that predict financial instability group of indicators indicator trend before the crisis internal macroeconomic policy the growth rate of gdp in constant prices decrease the growth rate of outflows in constant prices decrease the budget deficit relative to gdp increase unemployment increase external context (external economic conditions) current account balance of payments decrease export decrease import increase the balance of payments decrease gold and foreign exchange reserves decrease capital outflow increase external debt increase net outflow of capital increase public budget deficit increase fundamental indicators money supply increase sufficient reserves increase m2 relative to gold and currency reserves increase the multiplier increase the monetization of economy increase financial system health indicators internal credit increase deposits decrease shocks affecting the financial sector inflation increase actual effective exchange rate increase real domestic credit interest rate on the interbank market increase ratio between credit rate and deposit rate (margin) increase the spread between the internal credit rate and the libor rate increase trade conditions decrease pressure on the foreign exchange market the exchange market pressure index increase source: elaborated by the authors based on their previous researches (perciun 2014; colesnicova 2015; perciun, colesnicova et al. 2018). we note that one of the indicators to be monitored is the pressure on the foreign exchange market. the main signs of a currency crisis are a sharp drop in the exchange rate and the exhaustion of the foreign exchange reserves. in scientific literature, a currency crisis, as a rule, refers to the depreciation of the theoretical and scientifical journal 14 no. 1 / 2020 national currency by 25-30% or more over several months and the same sharp reduction in foreign exchange reserves. paul krugman described this type of crisis in the framework of “balance of payment crises and capital flight” model (krugman 1979). the situation of financial instability of the banking sector is characterized as a full-blown banking crisis if at least one of the following conditions is met:  the share of bad loans in the total assets of the banking sector exceeds 10%;  the cost of measures to improve the situation in the industry exceeds 2% of gdp;  the result of problems in the banking sector became the nationalization of a significant share of banks;  there were massive deposit withdrawals from banks (depositor “raids”), emergency measures were applied (freezing deposits, announcing long “bank holidays”), or introduction of mechanisms for state deposit guarantee (demirguc-kunt, detragiache 1998) [2]. complex crisis – a crisis situation characterized by the simultaneous or sequential manifestation of several types of crises, due to the similarity or interconnectedness of the causes that gave rise to them (world bank 2012). the relationships between a systemic risk of the financial sector and a major macroeconomic risk should be taken into account when developing countercyclical macroeconomic policies and macroprudential regulation. currently, the following risk management tools are applied: 1. macroeconomic instruments are aimed at creating macroeconomic balance, in particular at the achievement of financial stability, overcoming budget deficit, stabilizing inflation, ensuring a positive balance of payments and maintaining a stable national currency rate. among these tools, we can distinguish the mechanisms of monetary, fiscal policy; 2. institutional instruments are aimed at the formation and regulation of the legal and organizationaleconomic environment, the approval of a single operating procedure for all market entities. institutional quality plays a significant role in the reduction of the likelihood of both the crisis itself and its continuation. among these tools we can distinguish the legislative, regulatory, technical regulations; 3. infrastructural support presumes the participation of government agencies in shaping markets for the factors of production (construction of transport infrastructure, transmission mechanisms; financing fundamental science and co-financing applied developments, testing facilities, training, etc.); 4. information tools aimed at creating a single information space, providing economic agents with economic, legal, statistical and other useful information, in its turn resulting in an effective and informed management decision making process. the lack of proper attention to an effective financial monitoring of the republic of moldova’s economy does not allow timely planning and control of the necessary measures for strategic crisis prevention, as a result of which the state responds to an escalating financial crisis. an important role in the policy of financial stability should be played by the regulatory policy aimed at sustainable growth achievement. tinbergian assignment in which, under normal circumstances at least, price stability is assured by interest rate policy while financial stability is assured by macro-financial policies, be they capital requirements or credit restrictions, general or sector-specific. during the crisis, “it is important to ensure an adequate balance between the macroprudential and microprudential regulation of risk control, as well as the development of necessary tools to monitor and evaluate the accumulation of macroprudential risks within the financial system” (himino 2010). a special role in the achievement of financial stability should be given to the national bank of moldova. problems that arose during the crisis remain relevant for the republic of moldova:  does the central bank have the necessary tools? are they outdated due to non-use, or is it necessary to create an administrative or legal basis for the creation of new ones?  is the concept of central bank independence adequate and effective enough for new responsibilities? does it need to expand its legal immunity or make changes in the sphere of legislative supervision in order to fulfill its responsibilities of financial stability?  are the loss allocation mechanisms reliable enough to take on the balance sheet risks associated with the policies, such as the recent measures of restoring financial stability?  does the central bank require changes in its administrational governance arrangements? (caruana 2010). economy and sociology 15 no. 1 / 2020 methodology of systemic risk measurement the systemic risk quantitative assessment of the financial sector can be carried out by different methods. table 2 represents the following instruments and methods measuring macroeconomic risk. table 2 approaches of quantifying systemic risk of the financial sector target assessment of the financial system and potential threats crisis forecasting approach stress testing network methods value-at-risk based indicators (covar, mes, srisk) indicators of early detection synthetic indexes approach essence testing financial institution’s vulnerabilities / the system integrally to shock scenarios. perception of the financial sector as a set of players connected by contracts. evaluation of each participant’s contribution to the systemic risk. defining the onset of a crisis as an exceeding indicator of the threshold value. identification of “mode switching effect” from the stable development of economy to crisis. benefits identification of financial institution’s vulnerabilities estimated information for the risk level supervision tracking the relationships between system elements identification of institutions the surveillance and regulation of which should be more scrupulous capacity of early crisis tendencies detection aggregation of high-frequency market data to monitor the situation online shortcom ings uncertainty of scenario selection errors in the collection of statistical information nonlinear relationships between the system elements high complexity of models due to the numerous possible scenarios of interaction between the players. the necessity of specifying the conditions that simplify the actual situation existing indicators giving conflicting results. sensitivity to the selection of the research period retrospective functioning sensitivity to the selection of the research period retrospective functioning source: elaborated by the authors using (щепелева 2016). stress-test is a more often used tool and allows the assessment of the financial situation of credit institutions and their ability to resist the challenges based on identifying weaknesses in their work. therefore, stress-tests are a group of methods for financial assessment of an institution in situation of the crisis and the tools for managing economic risks (perciun 2014; perciun et al. 2014; colesnicova 2015; perciun, colesnicova et al. 2018). calculations of leading crisis indexes contemporary literature offers an analytical review of the existing methods for prevention, diagnosis, and intervention to solve crisis situations. in foreign practice, integrated and local “crisis” indicators are being calculated: theoretical and scientifical journal 16 no. 1 / 2020  financial stress indexes (st. louis fed fsi; ecb composite indicator of systemic stress; kansas city fed fsi; imf advanced economies fsi; akra fsi and others);  financial condition indexes (chicago red fci; bloomberg fci);  composite leading indicators (soi tsmakp);  pressure index on the foreign exchange market;  monetary index;  credit gap and debt burden indicators; etc. the following conclusions were drawn in this study on the use of the crisis indicators data based on international experience: 1. there is a lack of a clear ideology for building crisis indicators: as a rule, they are randomly “assembled” from various particular indicators, without the presence of internal logic. 2. in modeling of the central monetary institutions’ activities, there is a deviation from the existing institutional theory. 3. difficulties in using certain key indicators (for example, gdp) due to the lack of official monthly data. 4. the multifactorial nature of the process of economic growth, which makes it difficult to choose the correct monetary indicators that should act as real growth drivers. 5. nonlinearity between some important monetary indicators of parameters for economic growth, which complicates the construction of a simple anticipatory indicator. 6. identification of future collisions ignoring minor changes in the monetary climate. 7. short lags of anticipatory indicators. 8. the absence of a "recognized leader" (екимова 2018). the exchange market pressure index (empi) empi is often used as the simplest anticipatory indicator. in 2009, the imf proposed the use of the imf financial stress index for the emerging economies, and the empi as one of five indicators. this indicator is practically used in different countries. firstly, the empi is used as a crisis indicator for assessing financial instability, for example, applying the signal approach by using this index by p. trunin and e. inozemtsev in 2012 (trunin, inozemtsev 2012).  secondly, the currency pressure index was used to identify the period of financial crisis in the binary choice models, probit and logit models using by matthieu bussiere and marcel fratzscher in 2006 (bussiere, fratzscher 2006) and also by graciela kaminsky and carmen reinhart in 2000 (kaminsky, reinhart 2000). thirdly, the currency pressure index is used to assess the monetary policy within the framework of exchange rate management and to assess the adequacy of the foreign exchange regimes. also, the currency pressure index is used to assess the features of regional crises (mody, taylor 2007) and integration processes. the exchange market pressure index, as a rule, is the weighted average of the rate of depreciation of the national currency (usually compared to the us dollar, in nominal or real terms), monthly changes in foreign currency reserves (in percentage terms) and the monthly changes in interest rates. a financial crisis occurs when pressure in the financial market is abnormally high. the main problem of this methodology is to determine the coefficient value. various studies suggest using a value ranging from 1.2 to 3. (1) the group of countries significantly affected by the crisis includes countries for which the deviation of the emp index from its average value adds up to over two standard deviations calculated on the basis of historical values of the emp index for the analyzed co untry (lukianenko et al. 2013). https://www.researchgate.net/profile/matthieu_bussiere economy and sociology 17 no. 1 / 2020 data sources, method utilized and empi calculations in the numerous researches there are different methods which used to identify the currency pressure index. each author proposes his own methodology regarding the calculation of the currency pressure index. the methodology developed by g. kaminsky and k. reinhart (kaminsky, reinhart 1999) will be applied in the present research. their approach to identifying the emp index can be viewed by the following formula (2): empi𝑖,𝑡 = ∆𝑒𝑖,𝑡 𝑒𝑖,𝑡 − 𝜎𝑒 𝜎𝑟 × ∆𝑟𝑖,𝑡 𝑟𝑖,𝑡 (2) where, empii,t – the pressure index of the foreign exchange market for the country i during the period t; ei,t – the currency exchange rate of the country i in relation to the currency of the base country during the period t; σe – the standard exchange rate gap (∆ei,t/ei,t); ri,t – the international reserves of the country i during the period t; σr – represents a standard aberration in foreign international reserves (∆ri,t/ri,t). table 3 empi calculations, 1995-2018 empi mean deviation 1995 0.146833 0.004492 1996 0.2427 0.004492 1997 -1.79915 0.004492 1998 -4.91071 0.004492 1999 -1.73474 0.004492 2000 -0.47287 0.004492 2001 -0.51884 0.004492 2002 -0.14992 0.004492 2003 2.354603 0.004492 2004 0.271331 0.004492 2005 0.299702 0.004492 2006 3.507408 0.004492 2007 3.221559 0.004492 2008 -1.56308 0.004492 2009 -0.23352 0.004492 2010 1.812387 0.004492 2011 2.069182 0.004492 2012 0.872831 0.004492 2013 -4.38248 0.004492 2014 -6.59638 0.004492 2015 0.917606 0.004492 2016 4.083223 0.004492 2017 2.56232 0.004492 2018 2.00000 0.004492 source: authors' calculations based on the nbm data. the growth of the empi represents an increase of tension in the foreign exchange market. the crisis is evidenced by values that increase from their average value by more than three standard deviations. a constant increase in the index may indicate a worsening of the economic situation, a decrease of the index may demonstrate the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures, etc. based on the theory of currency crises, the instability indicators within the foreign exchange market are associated with the risks of international trade. given the foreign economic dependence theoretical and scientifical journal 18 no. 1 / 2020 of the republic of moldova on the export of raw materials and imports of energy resources, it is important to monitor the dynamics of the foreign exchange market in the countries which are the main trading partners of the republic of moldova. figure 1. empi for the republic of moldova, 1995-2018 source: elaborated based on authors' calculations. empi increases with the depreciation of the national currency or with the decline of international reserves. the crisis situation is highlighted by values that increase from the average value by more than three standard deviation points. therefore, in the period 2008-2009, before the crisis, the emp index exceeded the threshold level 3 times, thus, there was a significant increase of the index two years before the banking crisis in 2014-2015, but the most significant index growth was recorded in 2017, which indicates an increase in the market currency during this period. the consequences of the stressful situations during the crisis periods 98-99, 2009, 2014-2015 began to amortize the national currency against the base currencies and reduce international reserves, especially in 2014 (with an increase of 24.6 p.p.). figure 2. empi for the republic of moldova, russian federation, romania source: elaborated based on authors' calculations. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 empi mean deviation -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 empi moldova empi russia empi romania mean deviation economy and sociology 19 no. 1 / 2020 the channels of commercial and financial transactions, the impact of the crisis, may interact with each other, as the availability of commercial credit is related to the volume of trade. increased imports increase demand and pressure on the foreign exchange market. the increase in exports reduces the pressure on the foreign exchange market, but the biggest impact under the conditions of the republic of moldova on the foreign exchange market is due to the dynamics of remittances from abroad. thus, the highest values of the empi indicator for the last two years have been associated with the increase in remittances abroad in spring 2018 and early 2019. however, modern financial markets are so complex and interconnected that there can be no linear dependencies, thus, only variable interdependence. main conclusions trade and financial channels for transferring the impact of the crisis can interact with each other, since the availability of trade credit is related to the volume of trade. import growth increases demand, and pressure on the foreign exchange market increases. export growth reduces pressure on the foreign exchange market, but the greatest impact in the conditions of the republic of moldova on the foreign exchange market is associated with the dynamics of labor exports, or remittances from abroad. thus, the highest values of empi over the past two years were associated with an increase in remittances from abroad in the spring of 2018 and at the beginning of 2019. however, modern financial markets are so complex and interconnected that there can be no linear dependencies, and therefore no correlations, only variable interdependence. thus, country-specific sources of vulnerability to external shocks include solvency and liquidity problems, weak domestic balances, and factors associated with an open economy. these factors increase the vulnerability to crises related to the balance of 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[citat 17 aprilie 2020]. disponibil: http://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/bitstream/handle/123456789/2050/diagnostics%20financial%2 0crisis.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y 14. kaminsky, g., reinhart, c. the twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems. in: american economic review. 1999, vol. 89, no. 3, pp. 473-500 [citat 15 februarie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.89.3.473 15. perčun, r., petrova, t. finansovaâ bezopasnostʹ respubliki moldova. lap lambert academic publishing. 2014. 128 s. isbn 978-3-659-45754-8. 16. perciun, rodica. stabilitatea financiară a statului: între teorie şi practică: monografie. chişinău: comp. ed. ince, 2014. 184 p. isbn 978-9975-9799-3-1. 17. colesnicova, tatiana. piaţa financiară globală: analiză şi perspective = the global financial market: analysis and perspectives. in: economie şi sociologie = economy and eocilology. 2015, nr. 1, pp. 97-104. issn 1857-4130 [citat 20 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://ince.md/uploads/files/1433186322_nr-1-2015-economie-si-sociologie.pdf 18. perciun, rodica, colesnicova, tatiana, timofei, olga. analysis of macroeconomic shocks resistance of moldovan banking sector. in: knowledge horizons–economics. “dimitrie cantemir” christian university, pro universitaria. 2018, vol. 10, no. 4, 2018, pp. 61-91. issn 2069-0932, e-issn 2066-1061 [citat 20 aprilie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.orizonturi.ucdc.ro/arhiva/khe%20nr.%204%20%202018/8.%20analysis%20of%20macroeconomic%20%20shocks.pdf article history received 08 may 2020 accepted 25 may 2020 https://www.iep.ru/ru/publikatcii/category/1336.html https://www.researchgate.net/profile/matthieu_bussiere https://www.researchgate.net/journal/0261-5606_journal_of_international_money_and_finance https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejimfin/v_3a25_3ay_3a2006_3ai_3a6%20_3ap_3a953-973.htm https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejimfin/v_3a25_3ay_3a2006_3ai_3a6%20_3ap_3a953-973.htm https://www.researchgate.net/journal/0261-5606_journal_of_international_money_and_finance https://www.researchgate.net/journal/0261-5606_journal_of_international_money_and_finance https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeinecon/v_3a51_3ay_3a2000_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a145-168.htm https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeinecon/v_3a51_3ay_3a2000_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a145-168.htm https://www.researchgate.net/journal/0261-5606_journal_of_international_money_and_finance https://www.researchgate.net/journal/0261-5606_journal_of_international_money_and_finance https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222572472_regional_vulnerability_%20the_case_of_east_asia https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222572472_regional_vulnerability_%20the_case_of_east_asia http://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/bitstream/handle/123456789/2050/diagnostics%20financial%20crisis.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y http://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/bitstream/handle/123456789/2050/diagnostics%20financial%20crisis.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.89.3.473 https://ince.md/uploads/files/1433186322_nr-1-2015-economie-si-sociologie.pdf https://www.orizonturi.ucdc.ro/arhiva/khe%20nr.%204%20-%202018/8.%20analysis%20of%20macroeconomic%20%20shocks.pdf https://www.orizonturi.ucdc.ro/arhiva/khe%20nr.%204%20-%202018/8.%20analysis%20of%20macroeconomic%20%20shocks.pdf how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 94 no. 2 / 2019 the system of values and perception of time in the transitional society: socio-psychological issues and perspectives irina caunenco1, phd in psychology, associate professor, institute of cultural heritage, republic of moldova lucia gasper2, phd in psychology, senior researcher, institute of legal, political and sociological research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.2-08 jel classification: i25, i29, j15, j24 udc: 316.6 abstract the empirical study of the time and values system perception in different social ethnic and age groups offers the possibility to understand the potential subjectivity of groups in transitional society. the goal of the research was the study of time perception, values system in different age and ethnic groups in the transitional society. the methodological basis of our research is the systemic approach and social constructivism. social groups were studied – age groups (adolescents, youngers, adults); ethnic groups (gagauz people, ukrainians, bulgarians, russians). in order to carry out the empirical research, standardized methods and semi-structured interview were applied: “the scale of time attitudes” nutten j.; semi-structured interview on time perception; the method elaborated by e. b. fantalova. it was revealed that the groups of russians, bulgarians are characterized by a positive perception of present time, but the gagauz people and ukrainians perceived less positive the present time. time perspective of these groups is short – from one year to five years – that can be an evidence of difficulties met by these groups in today transitional reality of the country. there were determined groups of youngers on time perception from optimistic to socialanxious (the given type, potential for migration). the study of values system of adolescent respondents from rural areas (most have parents working abroad) showed the importance of such values as health, happy family life and at the same time, the complexity of their basic needs’ satisfaction. keywords: large social groups, time perspective, time perception, present time perception, ethnic groups, age groups, value, value system, transitional society, worldview, social time. studiul empiric al percepției timpului și a sferei valorice la diferite grupuri sociale-etnice, de vârstă – face posibilă înțelegerea potențialului subiectivității grupurilor într-o societate tranzitivă. studiul a avut ca scop studierea percepției timpului, sferei valorice de către diferite grupuri de vârstă și etnice în societatea tranzitivă. drept bază metodologică a studiului a fost abordarea sistemică și constructivismul social. au fost studiate grupurile sociale de vârstă – adolescenți, tineri, adulți și etnice -găgăuzi, ucraineni, bulgari și ruși. pentru realizarea studiului empiric s-au aplicat tehnici standardizate și interviul semistructurat: „scala atitudinilor de timp” de nutten j., interviul semistructurat privind percepția timpului, metoda elaborată de e.b.fantalova. s-a determinat că la grupurile de ruși și bulgari prevalează o percepție pozitivă a prezentului, pe când la găgăuzi și ucraineni fiind mai redusă. perspectiva de timp a acestor grupuri este de scurtă durată, de la unu la cinci ani, ce poate indica dificultăți în depășirea perioadei de tranzitivitate la grupurile respective. se disting grupuri de tineri în percepția timpului, de la optimiști la anxioși-social (un tip potențial de emigrare). un studiu asupra sferei valorice a adolescenților respondenți din mediul rural (cu părinți plecați peste hotare) a dezvăluit prioritatea valorilor – sănătate, o viață de familie fericită și, în același timp, dificultatea în realizarea acestor valori. cuvinte-cheie: grupuri sociale mari, perspectiva de timp, percepția timpului, grupuri etnice, grupuri de vârstă, valori, societate tranzitivă, orientări valorice, imaginea lumii, timp social. 1 © irina caunenco, caunencoi@mail.ru 2 © lucia gasper, gasperlucia@mail.ru mailto:caunencoi@mail.ru mailto:gasperlucia@mail.ru economy and sociology 95 no. 2 / 2019 эмпирическое исследование восприятия времени и ценностной сферы у этнических и возрастных социальных групп даёт возможность понимания потенциала субъектности групп в транзитивном обществе. целью исследования явилось изучение восприятие времени, ценностной сферы разными возрастными и этническими группами в транзитивном обществе. методологическая основа исследования: системный подход и социальный конструктивизм. исследовались социальные группы – возрастные (подростки, молодёжь, взрослые); этнические (гагаузы, украинцы, болгары, русские). для реализации эмпирического исследования были применены стандартизированные методики и полуструктурированное интервью: «шкала временных установок» нюттен ж.; полуструктрированное интервью по восприятию времени; методика е.б.фанталовой. выявлено, что у групп русских и болгар доминирует позитивное восприятие настоящего времени, тогда как у гагаузов и украинцев оно несколько ниже. временная перспектива данных групп короткая, от года до пяти лет, что может свидетельствовать о сложностях прохождения периода транзитивности у данных групп. выделены группы молодёжи по восприятию времени от оптимистического, до социально-тревожного (данный тип потенциал для эмиграции). исследование ценностной сферы респондентов подросткового возраста из сельской местности, у которых большинство родителей находятся на заработках, выявило значимость ценностей – здоровья, счастливой семейной жизни, и в то же время сложности в их удовлетворении. ключевые слова: большие социальные группы, временная перспектива, восприятие времени, этнические группы, возрастные группы, ценности, транзитивное общество, ценностные ориентации, картина мира, социальное время. introduction. the research of large social groups in the period of transition presents a great interest for us, because the content of socially important features of human psychic are developed at macro-social level, where, from historical perspective, concrete social rules, values, attitudes and representations are formed, which in their turn are “delivered” to the individual through small groups and interpersonal communication [6, dilegenskij, g.g., 1994]. large social groups are perceived as “natural” due to the length of their existence. the culturalpsychological originality of the given groups is formed historically, by the efforts of some generations which determine the orderliness, stability of group values, and rules of behavior and conduct. the agents of ethnic, gender-role, religious, and political socialization are represented by the members of immediate social environment. the members of a large social group are linked by symbolic relations generated by the similarity of conditions, life style, values, experiences, and in ordinary circumstances such groups represent a community only in the consciousness of its members [5, bogomolova, n.n. et al., 2002]. the research of large social groups is determined by the need of understanding the deep changes in a transitional society. in the psychological content of the notion “society in transition” includes: fundamental social transformations; globalization that leads to the expansion of the space of interpersonal interactions; emphasis of social uncertainty related to frequent transformations of values, norms and standards; increase of the length of the time period of the socialization process, the intensification of re-socialization and current socialization; expansion of informational space, partially replacing intergenerational relations [13, marcinkovskaâ, t.d., 2015]. nowadays, time categories play more and more a substantial role in forming the group identity and in the “imaginary communities” [1, anderson, benedikt., 2016]. in the conditions of transitional society, the individual and age groups need understanding and ways of owning personal time, because these represent an important condition of collective subjectivity. as “group attitude to time” we understand the peculiarities of perception, experience, awareness and management of time which are typical to the members of a certain social group [7, krivcova, s.v., 1997]. theoretical and scientifical journal 96 no. 2 / 2019 we define social time: firstly, as objective relations of antecedence, subsequence and simultaneity between people actions, social phenomena and processes; secondly, as subjective mirroring of these relations in the group consciousness [7, krivcova, s.v., 1997]. the social psychologist g. m. andreyeva points that the “problem of ‘insertion’ in the historical time stands especially sharp in situations of radical social transformations… and an important stage in this process is represented by the understanding of time” [2, andreeva, g.m., 2009]. the research of the problem of the attitude to time is studied on societal, group. interpersonal, and intrapersonal levels [9. nestik, t., 2014; 16, syrcova a., mitina o.v., et al., 2007; 14, emel'ânova, t.p., 2006; 15, kuznecova, a.v., 2013]. we find very interesting for our research, the results of empirical studies regarding the manifestation of the phenomenon of time perspective in different cultures, conducted by researchers (apostolidis t., fieulaine n., 2004; boyd j.n., zimbardo p.g., 1999, 2005; keough k.a., zimbardo p.g., boyd j.n., 1999; syrtsova a., mitina o.v., boyd j., davydova i.s., zimbardo f., nepryaho t.l., nikitina e.a., semenova, 2007) from different countries (france, usa, russia). time perspective is defined by the give researchers as “a fundamental and unconscious process, by which social and individual experience is correlated with time categories, which allows to give meaning and coherence to the lived experience” [16, syrcova, a., mitina, o.v. i dr., 2007]. the research of time perspective in italy (d alessio m., guarino a., vilfredo de pascalis v., zimbardo ph., 2003) revealed a significant correlation between time perspective and level of education. the researchers presupposed that the low educational level having a direct proportional relation with low socio-psychological statute, when nothing depends on a person’s desires, could lead to the formation of a passive submission to events. [16, syrcova, a., mitina, o.v. i dr., 2007]. the research of time perspective in france (apostolidis t., fieulaine n., 2004) reveals that adverse situations are associated with a lesser orientation toward the future, and with a greater orientation toward the present and past. focusing on a negative past is accompanied by a significant decrease in psychological well-being. these results confirm the relationship of the time perspective with the social conditions of existence and its role in subjective well-being. [16, syrcova, a., mitina, o.v. i dr., 2007]. a study of the time perspective in russia (syrtsova a., mitina o.v., boyd j., davydova i.s., zimbardo f., nepryaho t.l., nikitina e.a., semenova, 2007). it was found that younger respondents are characterized by the manifestation of the “hedonistic present” factor, and at an older age – the important factor that is taken into consideration represent the future factor. excessive concentration at one form of time is determined by such factors as culture, education, religion, membership in a social class. the preference for a specific time orientation is largely determined by the country of residence (national identification). in some societies (western), the value of autonomy and the future is encouraged, while in other cultures, on the contrary, orientation toward the past is supported [16, syrcova, a., mitina, o.v. i dr., 2007]. sources of data and used methods the goal of our research is the investigation of the perception of time, values system by different age and ethnic groups in a transitional society. one of the hypotheses of our research was the supposition that socio-economic changes occurring in the society will influence the values system, time perspective and the perception of present time by large social groups – age and ethnic groups. in our research we made as well the hypothesis according to which the perception of time, values system by different social groups (age, ethnic) gives the possibility to understand from different perspectives the groups’ state in a transitional society. one can orient himself/herself in the new complex world, or understand it, only if he/she can in an appropriate way to interpret the ongoing processes, facts, otherwise he/she can “easily lose the meaning of both what is happening and his/her place in it”. today, we consider an important task to understand and reveal the mechanisms “through which human being sees himself/herself as part of that reality in which he/she lives and acts, as well as all the factors that determine these processes” [2, andreeva, g.m, 2009.]. the methodological basis of our investigation represents the systemic approach and social economy and sociology 97 no. 2 / 2019 constructivism. our basic hypotheses in the give research are the following: 1) the awareness of the world represents the result of mutual activity of people; “their relations, words used to define / describe social processes are meaningful and significant only in the context of these relations”; 2) the widespread presence of certain form of understanding depends on the character of social processes, and the rule “how to define or name things”, is determined by the character of social changes [17, andreeva, g.m., 2009]. in the given article we are going to present a part of our empirical research – the perception of time by youngers; by ethnic groups (kaunenco i.); and peculiarities of values system in groups of early aged adolescents (gasper l.). the scientific novelty of our research represents the determination of peculiarities of values system, the perception of present time by large social groups (age and ethnic) in transitional society, namely: planning time perspective, variability in the attitude to present time, hierarchy of values system as bases for the formation of collective subjectivity. the characteristics of sample and methodology of the empirical study regions of research – chisinău municipality, atu gagauzia (autonomous territorial unit of gagauzia) – comrat, chirsova village; tvardita city; rișcani district, malinovscoe village; cahul district, lucești village; singerei city. (period of research – may-september 2016). leova district, cazangic village; telenesti district, negureni village. (period of research – april 2019) (57 respondents aged 15-17); focus-groups organized in: bălți municipality (14 respondents) and comrat city (17 respondents). table 1 sample structure ethnic group nr. of respondents age (average) russians 40 a=39 bulgarians 36 a=39 gagauz people 40 a=41 ukrainians 36 a=41 total 152 source: elaborated by the author. characteristics of sample in focus groups (2018) the sample in bălți city was composed by young people aged 20-40 (14 respondents), from this reason the questions regarding the time perspective, the experience of present time in the period of society transformation had a vivid and consistent character. the educational statute: young people had completed higher education, or were studying at university (cycle 1), or master cycle (cycle 2). the focus group of comrat city (17 respondents), from the age point of view was mixed, that is why in the given article we analyze the results of researching young people only. methodology: 1) method “scale of time attitudes” [10, nûtten, ž., 2004]. 2) in order to research the time perspectives we used the question: “for what period you can plan your life?” and there were some options of answer that characterize different length of the planning period. the given question was borrowed from the research of n. m. lebedeva and a. n. tatarco [8, lebedeva, n.m., tatarko, a.n., 2007] related to the time perspective. 3) semi-structured interview regarding the perception of time (focus groups). 4) in order to study the values system of respondents represented by adolescents of early age we used the method of e. b. fantalova (1992) [7, krivcova, s.v., 1997]. the results of the empirical research and their analysis. the empirical research of time perspective of the groups of – russians, bulgarians, gagauz people, ukrainians reveals that the respondents of the given groups actually use to plan their future for a very short period of time from 1 to 5 years. thus a significant number of respondents can plan their future for 1-5 years: 50% of russians, 40% of gagauz people, 38,9% of bulgarians, 44,4% of ukrainians. but there is a big part of people that cannot plan at all – 37,5% of russians, 41,7% of ukrainians, 41,7% of bulgarians, 40% of theoretical and scientifical journal 98 no. 2 / 2019 gagauz people. the rest of answers were chosen by insignificant number of respondents. thus, in present time, the representatives of researched ethnic groups don’t develop a long time perspective. in every ethnic group half of respondents or a little less of half (gagauz people, bulgarians, ukrainians) can plan their life from 1 to 5 years. in our research we studied as well the perception of present time by the respondents of ethnic groups. figure 1. the perception of present time by respondents source: author’s calculations. according to the results presented in diagram, regarding the perception of present time in gagauz people (fig. 1), the positive attitudes are lesser emphasized (47%). gagauz people (43%) and ukrainians (42%) are characterized by neutral attitude towards time. as well, we can see that in the groups of russians (67%) and bulgarians (70%) positive perception of present time dominates, and the results regarding the neutral perception of time is lower (russians 18%; bulgarians 19%). thus, we can conclude that the present time is perceived more positively by the groups of russians and bulgarians, less positive perception is dominating in the group of gagauz people. the groups of ukrainians and gagauz people are more characterized by neutral attitudes regarding the perception of present time. the results of analysis of the profiles of attitudes to present time in researched ethnic groups, qualitative analysis the group of gagauz people perceives the present time as important, swift, full of hope, wonderful, familiar. among negative features of the present time perception, the respondents from this group mentioned often – difficult, threatening. such characteristics of present time in gagauz people as short, externally determined, passive waiting, closed, enjoyable are more “dispersed”. concerning these characteristics of present time perception, the respondents are more uncertain. thus, the perception of present time by the group of gagauz people is characterized as swift, full of hope, wonderful, at the same time threatening and difficult. the group of russians perceives the present time as full, interesting, swift, open, familiar, everchanging, important, successful (completed). among negative characteristics there are – difficult, short. russians are uncertain regarding the following features: attractive – threatening, my personal – determined externally, warm – cold, distant – close, pleasant – unpleasant. thus, the group of russians perceives the time as full, interesting, swift, open, familiar, ever-changing, important, successful (completed), and at the same the time is – difficult and short. the group of bulgarians perceives the present time as ever-changing, pleasant, full, important, 67% 47% 70% 50% 18% 43% 19% 42% 15% 10% 11% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% russians gagauz people bulgarians ukrainians positive neutral negative economy and sociology 99 no. 2 / 2019 my personal, wonderful, swift, full of hope, interesting. concerning the negative characteristics of present time, they mentioned – difficult. the group of bulgarians is uncertain regarding the following features of present time: easy – difficult, warm – cold, completed – disappointing, long –short, attractive – threatening. the group of ukrainians perceives the present time as open, important, full, swift, wonderful, ever-changing, full of hope. negative characteristics – difficult, cold. regarding the following features there is no consensus: warm – cold, full – empty, attractive – threatening, long –short, completed – disappointing, i.e. successful – unsuccessful, personal – determined externally. as we can see, the group of ukrainians, generally, perceives time positively, but it is also dividing concerning success and failure in time, personal – determined externally, i.e. depending on locus of control. thus, all these ethnic groups perceive time as ever-changing, open, swift, important, at the same time difficult and threatening. for a better understanding of time perception at the group level by different social groups, not only the quantitative tools are important but also the qualitative methods, such as working in focus groups. the results of researching the perception of time by young people in focus groups. in the given article we combined the empirical material gathered from focus-groups realized in bălți municipality and comrat city (atu gagauzia). we divided conditionally the following groups of youngers according the perception of present time. 1. “optimists” the main message of this group is the following: “the time is ‘mine’, and it is interesting to live in it”. they are confident in their good future, they can keep up with times, they can develop themselves both professionally and personally (“i feel comfortable”). they have professional accomplishments (they are successful regarding the professional accomplishments), often due to the involvement in international cooperation. although with reservations, they characterize time as difficult and complicated for people around them, especially for the older generation. they disagree with the assessment of the parents regarding the definition of the present: “parents always share with us, then it was like that, maybe…, they think that it was better then. we don’t think so. i feel comfortable, maybe not 100%. i would not say that all areas are ideal as i would like”, “i believe that my time, despite the decline in the country, can still grow.” time is perceived by respondents of this group as dynamic, technological, motivates them for the future: “...i feel the changes, everything is moving so fast, it is developing so fast, i like it. i can also change in parallel with time. society is developing dynamically, such information leaps happen, which is difficult follow. but i like it, i feel that this era is mine, and i have a good future.” a quick change of events does not scare them, does not give rise to a sense of anxiety, but rather, creates a comfortable state. our respondents, according to their age, in their majority, refer to the generation “millennium”, and it is characterized by such values as – “freedom”, “creation”, “entertainment”; every “millennium” begins feel unique and unrepeatable. max prenski defines the “millennium” generation through its interaction with informational technologies – “digital aboriginals” [4]. “news”, “lot of events” – motivate such generation, “lure” them and create the “comfort zone” as in the perception of present time, as well as of the future. 2. «positive fatalists» the positive-fatalistic attitude to the present is “as it will be, it will be so”. the respondents of this group worry that they don’t have time to realize everything, and someone “as far as possible”: “the time is mine, when i have time, when i don’t have time. as far as possible. they are anxious in terms of money, finances, when they are enough / not enough. normal time, i don’t know another.” for the respondents of this group, professional realization plays a big role, and the marker of the present is the opportunity to get an education abroad, to participate in international projects. 3. «socially-anxious» these respondents perceive present time as “fragile”, “unstable”, “volatile”, there is no certainty about “anything”. an important factor in the perception of the present time by respondents represents the socio-economic situation in the country: “as for planning, i can say that it all depends on our stability in this country. how can one plan something for the future without knowing what will happen to this country. for a long period you cannot plan, because there is no certainty about theoretical and scientifical journal 100 no. 2 / 2019 anything. even with regard to the financial side, you cannot take out a loan, because there is no stability in work, and there are no other sources of subsistence. ... i can plan for several days in advance, i can also plan the implementation of family issues. you cannot even plan a trip because you do not know whether you will have time for this or not ... we are at an age when everything changes. we want more. many want to live today, the present, for the future you need to be optimistic”. the respondents in this group revealed difficulties in controlling time, its successful management, and the inability to organize a sequence of events. the prospect of the future is difficult, and it is possible to predict difficulties with time integration, at least at this time stage. it seems that this type of perception of time today will be characteristic of a significant part of youth. and we can speculate that this inability to manage time due to institutional instability will be one of the “pushing” factors for inclusion in labor migration or emigration. the participants of the focus-groups mentioned these options as possible. in the process of researching the perception of time by different ethnic and age groups, an idea was born – to carry out a pilot comparative study on labor migrants that are working in italy [18, p. 53-56]. we wanted to get answers for the following question: how the labor migrants perceive the socio-cultural changes in our country? we conducted a survey of 17 respondents – moldovans that are working in piacenza city, in the southeast of italy. the survey, on our request, was conducted by tat'yana roshka, a phd student at ulim, in august 2018. the age of the selected sample was between 40-60 years. the given research has a pilot character. the survey had three questions: “when you are back in moldova, what changes are mostly obvious, from your point of view?”, “do you want your children to remember the republic of moldova?”, “what they should remember?”. we will describe shortly the results of this empirical study. 1. according to the perception of labor migrants, the socio-cultural changes in the country are noticed in material sphere and in the interpersonal relationships. the dispersion of perceptions is characterized by polarization, from extremely positive to negative, with the dominance of the positive. 2. in the content of ethno-cultural transmission by parents to their children, a positive attitude to homeland, country dominates. the majority of parents want children to remember and to preserve national traditions which will be, as we suppose, an important marker in preserving the ethnic identity in young “italian moldovans”. along with this, the labor migrants have also negative experiences of the country (embarrassment regarding the material/financial difficulties both in homeland and italy, in the beginning of their emigrant history). for psychologists, the value sphere presents a specific interest being an extremely generalized social experience obtained by a person in ontogenesis, as elements of a single semantic field [11, počebut, l.g., 2003]. values are a powerful sense-forming, motivating construct forming the “picture of the world” in adolescence and youth. further, as researches show, the value system remains fairly stable, despite even the socio-economic systemic changes in young, mature ages [19, gavreliuc, d., gavreliuc, a., 2018]. to understand the genesis of personal development in adolescence, during the period of transitivity, we conducted a study of their value system. we briefly dwell on the results of the empirical study. we insist to mention an interesting fact got in the research – the difference between the ‘value’ and ‘accessibility’ indicators, which reflects the level of mismatch, disintegration in the value-motivational sphere of the individual. it characterizes its internal conflict as a “blockade” of leading needs on the one hand, and self-realization, personal identity on the other. we have identified a conflict in the values of ‘health’ and ‘happy family life’, as very significant, but difficult to access. we suppose that many of our respondents, residents of rural areas, have parents included in labor migration. and perhaps the family, its social practices represent an unsatisfied need – in emotionally close relationships with relatives, which are often episodic, “virtual” in nature (during the period when the parents come from abroad or communicate on the internet). the value of ‘health’, this is perhaps a reflection of communication with loved ones, regarding the labor market – where health and physical endurance are important. based on the average indicators (attractiveness, value) of various life spheres, we compiled a rating of adolescents’ values. economy and sociology 101 no. 2 / 2019 figure 2. values rating source: author`s calculations. as we can see, from the presented results of the given empirical study, the spheres “happy family life” and “health” have the highest values. the respondents value the least such spheres as “beauty of nature and art”, “interesting job”. apparently, this is determined by the pragmatism of modern public life, in which first of all things that are worthwhile and worthy are valued, and “interesting work”, which would be well paid, is a rare guest in our regional space in the views of our young respondents. it’s interesting the fact, that researcher kaunenco i. i. in her study on values system of moldavian young students in 2019, by means of s. schwartz method, has determined that such values as “family protection”, “health” were the most preferred, significant values, having the smallest spread of data. the least preferred values were “creativity”, “the world of beauty”, “spiritual life”, presenting a big discrepancy of attitudes among the respondents’ hierarchization. such a hierarchy of values is characteristic for countries in a situation of survival, rather than self-realization (such as countries of the european space). the conducted factor analysis of the value sphere of student youth has revealed both an orientation towards both traditional and innovative values, and one of the factors was called “cultural crossroads”. where does the value-time pendulum swing in different social groups, this is a study field for further research. it seems to us that at present, studying the perception of time and the value system of different social groups will help to understand and predict the vector of the future socio-cultural development of our region. conclusions 1. the research of the time perspective of the representatives of ethnic groups revealed that they actually plan their future for a very short period of time from 1 to 5 years. concerning the perception of present time, in the groups of russians, bulgarians a positive perception dominates, in the group of ukrainians – the group perception is divided in two, and the less positive perception is peculiar for the group of gagauz people. in the groups of gagauz people and ukrainians neutral attitudes are more emphasized regarding the perception of present time. in all ethnical groups the present time is perceived as ever-changing, open, swift, important, and at the same time, difficult and threatening. 2. the groups of youngers that we divided conditionally according to the time perception, from 3,89 7,58 3,54 3,35 5,7 5,21 6,11 6,37 5,07 5,49 8,02 4,53 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00 9,00 a ct iv e l if e h e a lt h in te re st in g j o b b e a u ty o f n a tu re a n d a rt lo v e w e lf a re , m a te ri a l w e ll b e in g p re se n ce o f g o o d l o y a l fr ie n d s s e lf -c o n fi d e n ce k n o w le d g e f re e d o m a s in d e p e n d e n ce i n … h a p p y f a m il y l if e c re a ti o n a ve ra g e v a lu e theoretical and scientifical journal 102 no. 2 / 2019 “optimists” to “socially-anxious”, indicate the patchiness of our society, that include resourceful generational and reform potential (youngers – “optimists”) as well as the group, that in the conditions of continuous decline of the social-economic development of the region, has the tendency to migrate, because “nothing can be planned in the future”. 3. the research of values system of the respondents adolescents, revealed the unsatisfied need in the emotional-personal familial relations, in positive family practices, and anxiety regarding the value “health” as resource of the potential of labor migration. the research of time perception and values system in different social groups is promising taking into consideration the society need for normal functioning of social institutions. the success of their functioning depends on the values system of citizens and strong belief in the prospect of common positive future. it seems promising to research the options for responding groups – age, ethnic to systemic socio-economic changes in society. it is also necessary to study the national mentality of our region, since social institutions can function successfully only with the “support” of the mentality. references 1. anderson, benedikt. voobražaemye soobŝestva. razmyšlenia ob istokah i rasprostranenii nacionalizma. moskva: kučkovo pole, 2016. 416 s. isbn 5-93354-017-3. 2. andreeva, g.m. k voprosu o progresse v socialʹnoj psihologii. v: g.m. andreeva. socialʹnaâ psihologiâ segodnâ: poiski i razmyšleniâ. otv.red. o.v.krasnova.moskva: nou vpo mpsi, 2009, ss. 7-36. isbn 978-5-9770-0446-6. 3. socialʹnoe vospriâtie – ishodnyi punkt. v: g.m. andreeva. psihologiâ socialʹnogo poznaniâ. moskva: aspekt press, 2000, ss. 43-51. isbn 5-7567-0248-2. 4. bezbogova, m.s., ionceva, m.v. socialʹno-psihologičeskij portret sovremennoj molodeži. v: mir nauki. 2016, tom 4, nomer 6. issn 2309-4265. 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[accesat 15.10.2019]. disponibil: http://psystudy.ru/index.php/num/2009n1-3/55-andreeva3.html 18. kaunenko, i.i. vospriâtie sociokul'turnyh izmenenij v respublike moldova trudovymi migrantami moldavanami. v: moldova i gagauziâ v kontekste razvitiâ moldavskoj gosudarstvennosti: naučnopraktičeskaâ konferenciâ s učastiem učonyh respubliki moldova posvâŝennaâ 660-letiû moldavskoj gosudarstvennosti, 17 sentâbrâ 2019. komrat, 2019, ss. 53-56. 19. gavreliuc, d., gavreliuc, a. generational belonging and historical ruptures: continuity or discontinuity of values and attitudes in post-communist romania. in: n. lebedeva, r. dimitrova, j. berry (eds.). changing values and identities in the post-communist world. societies and political orders in transition. springer, 2018. pp. 207-222. [accesat 23.09.2019]. disponibil: https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319726151 article history received 01 october 2019 accepted 15 november 2019 http://psystudy.ru/index.php/num/2009n1-3/55-andreeva3.html https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319726151 how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 40 june no. 1/2021 a second chance for entrepreneurs in the republic of moldova: challenges and solutions alexandra novac1, phd, research associate professor national institute for economic research, republic of moldova elena aculai2, dr.hab., research associate professor, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova, lidia maier3, scientific researcher, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-04 jel classification: g33, l26, l38, o20, o29, czu: 334.72(478) abstract the relevance of offering a second chance is determined not only by the need to mitigate the consequences of business failure and motivate the entrepreneur to continue his entrepreneurial activity, but also by the impact on the country's economy, as business closure leads to job losses, a worsening of the financial possibilities of the national and local budgets, reduction of competition and other negative trends in the internal market. the importance of these issues has increased significantly in the context of the covid-19 pandemic, leading to significant deterioration of the moldovan business environment. the aim of the paper is to identify the barriers and needs of entrepreneurs, who face financial or other difficulties, are in a state of insolvency, have gone through restructuring/bankruptcy proceedings and would like to benefit from a second chance in moldova. the research methodology is based on the analysis of legislative acts in the field; statistical data analysis; the results of 16 semi-structured interviews with entrepreneurs on elucidating the factors that favor and hinder the entrepreneurial activity, related to obtaining a second chance in business. the interviews were conducted between april and august 2018. the research results showed that both internal factors (insufficient financial resources, knowledge of crisis management, mismanagement, insufficient staff qualification, including the entrepreneurial skills / experience of the owners, the lack of people with certain professions) and external (related to insolvency legislation, limited information on the possibilities that can be used in case of failure) are determining for taking a second chance. keywords: second chance, entrepreneurship, bankruptcy, business failure relevanța oferirii celei de-a doua șanse este determinată nu doar de necesitatea atenuării consecințelor eșecului în afaceri și motivării antreprenorilor să-și continue activitatea antreprenorială ci, de asemenea, de impactul asupra economiei, deoarece închiderea întreprinderilor conduce la reducerea locurilor de muncă, înrăutățirea posibilităților financiare ale bugetelor naționale și locale, reducerea concurenței și la alte tendințe negative pe piața internă. importanța acestor probleme a crescut semnificativ în contextul pandemiei covid-19, ducând la deteriorarea semnificativă a mediului de afaceri moldovenesc. scopul cercetării este de a identifica barierele și necesitățile antreprenorilor, care se confruntă cu dificultăți financiare sau alte probleme cu caracter nefinanciar, sau se află în stare de insolvabilitate, sau au trecut prin procedurile de restructurare sau faliment şi ar dori să beneficieze în mod rapid de a doua şansă. metodologia de cercetare se bazează pe analiza actelor legislative în domeniu; analiza datelor statistice; rezultatele a 16 interviuri semi structurate cu antreprenorii privind elucidarea factorilor, care favorizează și împiedică activitatea antreprenorială, legate de obținerea unei a doua șanse în afaceri. interviurile au fost realizate in perioada aprilie-august 2018. 1 id orcid: 0000-0002-4158-4917 e-mail: alecsandra_novac@yahoo.com 2 id orcid: 0000-0001-9208-9572 e-mail: eaculai@yandex.com 3 id orcid: 0000-0001-6781-9764 e-mail: heart1961@mail.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4158-4917 mailto:alecsandra_novac@yahoo.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9208-9572 mailto:eaculai@yandex.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6781-9764 mailto:heart1961@mail.ru economy and sociology 41 june no. 1/2021 rezultatele cercetării au arătat că atât factorii de ordin intern (insuficienta resurselor financiare, a cunoștințelor în gestionarea crizelor, management defectuos, insuficiența calificării personalului, inclusiv a abilităților/experienței antreprenoriale a proprietarilor, lipsa persoanelor cu anumite profesii, etc), cât și de ordin extern (ce țin de legislația privind insolvabilitatea, informații limitate privind posibilitățile care pot fi utilizate în caz de eșec, etc) în diferite situații sunt determinanți pentru a beneficia de o a doua șansă. cuvinte cheie: a doua șansă, antreprenoriat, faliment, eșec în afaceri актуальность предоставления второго шанса определяется не только необходимостью смягчения последствий неудач в бизнесе для частных предпринимателей и их мотивацией к продолжению предпринимательской деятельности, но также и влиянием на экономику страны в целом, поскольку закрытие предприятий малого и среднего бизнеса приводит к резкому сокращению рабочих мест, существенному ухудшению финансовых возможностей национального и местных бюджетов, неминуемому снижению конкуренции и другим негативным тенденциям на внутреннем рынке. важность указанных проблем особенно возросла в условиях актуальной пандемии ковид-19, которое привело к существенному ухудшению бизнес-среды в республике молдова. целью исследования является выявление препятствий и потребностей предпринимателей частного бизнеса, которые сталкиваются с определенными финансовыми трудностями или другими нефинансовыми проблемами, либо находятся в состоянии несостоятельности, либо прошли процедуру реструктуризации или банкротства и хотели бы быстро получить второй шанс в республике молдова. методология исследования основана на анализе национальных законодательных актов в данной области; анализе статистических данных; результатах 16 углубленных полустуктурированных интервью с предпринимателями по выявлению факторов, способствующих и препятствующих предпринимательской деятельности, связанных с получением второго шанса в бизнесе. интервью проводились в период с апреля по август 2018 года. результаты исследования показали, что, как внутренние факторы (недостаточные финансовые ресурсы, узкие знания в области антикризисного управления, плохое управление, недостаточная квалификация персонала, в том числе предпринимательские навыки/опыт собственников, отсутствие людей с определенными профессиям, и т. д.), так и внешние факторы (связанные с законодательством о несостоятельности, ограниченная информация о возможностях, которые могут быть использованы предпринимателями в случае неудачи в бизнесе и т. д.) в разных ситуациях могут иметь решающее значение для быстрого получения второго шанса в бизнесе. ключевые слова: второй шанс, предпринимательство, банкротство, неудача в бизнесе introduction giving entrepreneurs a second chance in business is a relatively new idea. in europe, in practical terms, this idea was for the first time proposed for examination about 13 years ago. the importance of this issue is reflected in the eu framework document, which sets out the main priorities for supporting the smes sector the small business act for europe. principle ii of the small business act states that member states ensure that „honest entrepreneurs who have faced bankruptcy quickly get a second chance” (commission communication ‘think small first’ a ‘small business act’ for europe, 2008). the importance of supporting the second chance in european countries was also reflected in the following document, aimed at the entrepreneurship and smes development, approved by the european commission the action plan “entrepreneurship 2020” (2013). measures to create an environment in which entrepreneurs can grow include removing barriers, as „bankruptcy proceedings and giving a second chance to honest entrepreneurs” (european commission entrepreneurship 2020 action plan, 2012). in the context of the association agreement between the republic of moldova and the european union, the government of the republic of moldova has made similar commitments to comply with the principles and mechanisms for supporting smes, provided in the “small business act” for europe. it is currently confirmed by statistics and some research that giving a second chance to "honest" entrepreneurs is important not only for the business environment, but also for the society. the need to pay special attention to this issue is conditioned by a number of premises, such as: theoretical and scientifical journal 42 june no. 1/2021 • bankruptcy in practice is rarely associated with dishonesty. studies conducted in the eu show that only 1 in 20 bankruptcies involves fraud (5%). in the eu, 200,000 companies go bankrupt every year, resulting in the loss of 1.7 million jobs. thus, the problem proves to be important not only for entrepreneurs, but also for the socio-economic development of states, regions; • overcoming business failure makes entrepreneurs stronger. in particular, different research confirms the increased efficiency of the entrepreneurs’ businesses, who previously had and overcame a negative insolvency experience, compared to other businesses. creating a business environment conducive to growth and economic viability is a long-standing goal of policy makers. however, the crucial roles of effective bankruptcy law and, in particular, of a culture that accepts entrepreneurial failure have been given insufficient attention in the process of creating a favorable entrepreneurial environment. in the republic of moldova until recently, the measures regarding the second chance for entrepreneurs and small and medium-sized enterprises, whose businesses have gone bankrupt, have remained outside the legal framework. however, in recent years, a number of concepts and procedures have been clarified in the insolvency law, which can potentially contribute to the improvement of the enterprises activities in a crisis situation. although the legal framework does not in any way prevent bankruptcy business owners from starting new businesses, in reality they face major problems, especially in accessing financial resources and participating in public procurement. they face such a phenomenon as stigma, which inhibits them and prevents them from restarting a new business. for example, in 2015, the organization for economic co -operation and development, evaluating the implementation of the small business act, ha d surveyed 310 smes in the republic of moldova and over 50% of respondents indicated that it is „very difficult” to start a new business after a previous failure, and that the access to finance represent the main obstacle for them (oecd et al., 2015). the relevance of this study is due to the fact that knowing the barriers and needs of entrepreneurs who have failed and want to benefit from a second chanc e aims, first of all, to mitigate the consequences of business failure for the entrepreneurs and motivate them to continue their entrepreneurial activity in the pre-existing business or a new one. based on the scientific publications and statistical data analysis, as well as in-depth interviews with entrepreneurs, the authors revealed the specifics of the local entrepreneurs’ activity, who face financial difficulties or other non-financial problems, are in a state of insolvency, have gone through restructu ring or bankruptcy procedures and would like to benefit quickly from a second chance. the generalization of the interviews results allowed to identify and analyze the main constraints and the need of this group of entrepreneurs who would like to benefit from a second chance in the republic of moldova. literature review in the scientific literature there is not a common definition accepted by the most of scientists, which would reflect the various processes related to business failure, which represent an obstacle both in researching the topic and in solving the practical problems. usually, several notions are used in scientific papers and policy documents to characterize business failure: business difficulty, inability to pay, insolvency and bankruptcy. business difficulties (financial and non-financial) are reflected in the worsening of financial and economic indicators, although the company is still able to meet its financial obligations to creditors. the concepts of inability to pay, insolvency and bankruptcy are differently defined, but all means that the debt of a legal person exceeds its assets, respectively, it is not possible to meet its financial obligations (at least in time). at the same time, the inability to pay is not related to court proceedings, and bankruptcy and insolvency are always achieved through a court decision. also, insolvency can be overcome by restructuring the business, without leading to its bankruptcy. researchers focus on various theoretical and practical aspects of offering businesses a second chance. many of the studies indicate an increasing importance of the need to offer a second chance for honest entrepreneurs. for instance, according to stam, audretsch and meijaard, entrepreneurs who start a second business are more successful and can survive longer than small businesses; they grow faster and employ more workers(stam et al., 2006). thus, a failure in entrepreneurial activity should not economy and sociology 43 june no. 1/2021 prohibit any future entrepreneurial activity, but rather should be seen as an opportunity for lifelong learning and improvement. according to some empirical studies, bankruptcy laws that are more friendly to entrepreneurs (in terms of the possibility of obtaining discharge) lead to higher levels of entrepreneurship through a greater number of potential entrepreneurs. a more forgiving bankruptcy law provides p artial insurance against the consequences of failure and reduces the risk tolerance threshold for entrepreneurs who are more reluctant to take risks (armour and cumming, 2008). at the same time, there is empirical evidence that risk reduction attracts entrepreneurs with higher education, previous experience and, in general, more qualified. and this, in turn, results in the formation of high-performing companies (eberhart et al., 2012). there are several barriers that limit the second chance. for example, some rese archers note that business success or failure depends on internal or external circumstances. internal factors can refer to managerial incompetence, overconfidence or excessive risk taking (hayward et al., 2006). external causes can be related to inadequate economic circumstances, government policies or lack of financial resources (liao et al., 2008). also, offering a second chance is limited by lengthy and costly bankruptcy procedures. faster processes for honest entrepreneurs are therefore important, given that according to research there is a relationship between the length of insolvency procedures and the loss of the company value (doing business, f.a.,2019). many concepts and approaches argued in scientific research find practical implementation in the european countries policy. in particular, in european policy documents referring to the second chance 10 years ago (including in the sba for europe), the notion of bankruptcy was mainly used. in recent years, however, in the european commission recommendations and regulations, the notion of insolvency is more and more common. moreover, in the text of these docume nts is recommended to support enterprises in different stages of business failure (the occurrence of problems, but without debts; existence of debts, but without claims from creditors; creditors’ claims, but without legal implications; examination of the c ase in the court). it should be emphasized that attention is paid not only to financial problems, but also to other problems of the enterprises (of a non-financial nature), which can lead to difficulties in the debt recovery. in the republic of moldova, in the scientific literature, there are separately developed the issues of the sme support policy assessment (aculai et al., f.a.,2018), various aspects of the problems faced by smes (levitskaia et al., 2015), anti-crisis management and the stages of the organization's bankruptcy(burlacu, f.a., 2009), the assessment of the bankruptcy risk of domestic companies (bancila & mihalachi, f.a., 2012). however, the research gap lies in the fact that the study of the entrepreneurs’ challenges, which face financial difficulties or other non -financial problems, are in a state of insolvency, have gone through restructuring or bankruptcy procedures and would like to quickly benefit from a second chance in the republic of moldova, is po orly reflected in the national scientific literature. in fact, the study from which th is article is based is the first national study in this direction. in the present study, a second chance for entrepreneurs is examined in a fairly broad context, not limited to the bankrupt companies. so, the whole period is actually subject of the analys is, related to the failure in business the occurrence of problems (not necessarily financial), but without debts; the existence of debt, but without claims from credito rs; creditors' claims, but without judicial implications; examination of the case in c ourt with the subsequent restructuring or bankruptcy of the enterprise (figure 1). theoretical and scientifical journal 44 june no. 1/2021 fig.1 the context of business failure to offer entrepreneurs a second chance source: elaborated by authors thus, this paper contributes to the literature on entrepreneurship in moldova by empirically investigating the specifics of the activity of local entrepreneurs, who face a business failure and would like to benefit from a second chance, based on interviews with entrepreneurs. data sources and methods the data for research in the present article was obtained in the framework of several research projects carried out at the national institute for economic research of moldova with the active participation of the authors. the following methods were used in this paper: analysis and generalization of the specialized literature, analytical materials, legislative acts and policy documents, which ensure the regulation of entrepreneurship and support for entrepreneurs. the primary data for the entrepreneurs’ activity analysis, who have faced financial / non-financial difficulties and intend to restructure their business or set up a new one, was obtained using the in-depth semi-structured interview method, given that the research of this entrepreneurs group in the republic moldova is at the initial stage (until now, no studies of these groups of entrepreneurs were carried out in the republic of moldova). the purpose of the interviews to identify the circumstances (factors), which favor and hinder the entrepreneurial activity, related to obtaining a second chance in business. in total 16 interviews were conducted, with the participation of the authors. the interviews were conducted between april and august 2018. the survey was conducted with the following groups of small entrepreneurs (owners / co-owners and top managers), whose business is facing financial difficulties or other non-financial problems, are in a state of insolvency, have gone through restructuring bankruptcy procedures and would like to quickly benefit from a second chance. all respondents hold key positions in the companies, being (со-) owners and/or employees/managers of the company, so that they are well acquainted with the situation in the company, which is discussed in the interviews. the main notions used in the study enterprise in financial difficulty, inability to pay, insolvency, bankruptcyare stated in the local legislation as follows: • enterprise in financial difficulty enterprise whose potential of managerial and economic viability is in a decreasing dynamic, but whose holder executes or is able to execute the due obligations; • inability to pay the debtor's financial situation characterized by his inability to execute his due pecuniary obligations, including fiscal obligations. failure to pay is usually presumed if the debtor has ceased to make payments; • insolvency the financial situation of the debtor characterized by the inability to honor its payment obligations, ascertained by a court order; • bankruptcy procedure the collective and equal insolvency procedure, which is applied to the debtor in order to liquidate his patrimony to cover its debts. the occurrence of problems (not necessarily financial), but without debts the existence of debt, but without claims from creditors creditors' claims, but without judicial implications examination of the case in court with the subsequent restructuring or bankruptcy of the enterprise b u si n e ss f a il u re economy and sociology 45 june no. 1/2021 research results and discussions insolvency law, main public institutions and implemented projects. the main document, which regulates the insolvency procedure in the republic of moldova, is the insolvency law, adopted in 2012, most recently amended by the law no. 141 of 16.07.2020. the gravity of the problem is explained by the fact that during the independence period in the country were elaborated 4 laws in this field, respectively, in 1992, 1996, 2001 and 2012, in ea ch of them later were introduced significant changes. in the process of the legislatio n developing, not only the procedures related to the recovery of corporate debts were concretized and completed, but also the key notions were modified. in particular, instead of the notion of bankruptcy in the law of 2001, the notion of insolvency was introduced, which is considered to be “something more forgiving and easier to bear” for entrepreneurs. the most recent amendments to the insolvency law concern the extrajudi cial restructuring of the companies, the streamlining of the financial circuit and the access to finance of economic agents in respect of which the insolvency procedure was initiated, including by regulating the possibility of post-initiation financing, maximizing the recovery rate of creditors' claims. analyzing the currently in force insolvency law from the second chance point of view, it is worth mentioning that the law provides for two restructuring procedures (chapter vi, art. 182 226). one is the general procedure and the other is the accelerated restructuring procedure. the accelerated restructuring procedure can be applied to the financially distressed company and aims to protect the company, providing the opportunity to continue the activity, keep jobs and cover debts by implementing a concrete plan. the main institution, which regulates all aspects of the sme sector development in the republic of moldova is the ministry of economy and infrastructure. at the same time, the state policy in the field of enterprises’ insolvency and bankruptcy is carried out by the ministry of justice. at the same time, some modest steps are being taken to facilitate the access to second chance for entrepreneurs. thus, starting with july 2018, the government agency the organization for smes development (odimm) started an international project co -financed from european union funds: “accepting failure to facilitate the access to second chance for entrepreneurs in the danube region danube chance 2.0” (within the transnational program danube 2014-2020). the project duration until 30.06.2021. this is the first project in the republic of moldova, focused on entrepreneurs in difficulty, in a state of insolvency or bankruptcy and who would like to start a new business. analysis of the importance of the phenomenon based on quantitative data . based on the available data (of the state tax service, the public services agency and the national bureau of statistics) was identified the number of the problematic enterprises, which are facing difficulties in recovery debt, or which are already in a state of bankruptcy. ✓ the data of the state tax service reflects the number of economic agents declared insolvent. starting with 2013, the number of economic agents declared in a state of insolvency shows a constant growth trend. in particular, a significant increase was registered starting with 2017, when their number exceeded the cumulative number of agents declared insolvent in the period 2013-2016 (by 4.6 times). over the next 3 years (2017-2019) the number of economic agents declared insolvent continues to increase. thus, in 2019 the number of economic agents declared in a state of insolvency reached the maximum registered in the analyzed period, constituting 11183 economic agents, increasing by 24.3% compared to the previous year. the significant increase in the number of economic operators declared insolvent is explained, first of all, by the simplification of the liquidation procedure. theoretical and scientifical journal 46 june no. 1/2021 table 1. number of economic agents declared insolvent, period 2013 2019 year q i q ii q iii q iv total per year average number of employees in a company, pers. average number of employees in enterprises declared insolvent, pers. 2013 41 64 45 63 213 10.1 2151 2014 83 95 72 124 374 9.9 3703 2015 112 124 103 120 459 10 4590 2016 161 186 125 201 673 9.8 6595 2017 1783 1931 2088 2161 7963 9.7 77241 2018 1996 2126 2318 2559 8999 9.6 86390 2019 2546 2690 2866 3081 11183 9.7 108475 source: authors’ calculation based on the data of the state tax service of the republic of moldova and the national bureau of statistics considering that on average 9.7 employees were working in a company in the republic of moldova in 2019, the liquidation of insolvent enterprises only in 2019 may leads to the reduction of 108,475 jobs. using the data of the national bureau of statistics, which shows that the average number of employees in 2019 was 552,113 persons, we identify the share of jobs, which can be liquidated in connection with the closure of enterprises declared insolvent this is 19.6%. given the trend in 2019 and the negative effects of the covid-19 pandemic crisis, we assume that the reduction in jobs this year may be even more significant. ✓ the state register of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs keeps records of all enterprises that have been registered and deregistered. the data of the state register show that during 2015-2016 there was a net growth of enterprises (calculated as the difference between registered and deregistered enterprises), and during 2017-2019 this indicator had a negative value. moreover, in the last 3 years this negative trend has progressed: in 2017 the monthly reduction in the number of enterprises was -178 units, and in 2019 336 units. there are several factors that explain this trend (in particular, the simplification of the business liquidation procedure; a more constructive approach of the potential entrepreneurs on starting their own business), however, the data show the existence of certain problems faced by domestic entrepreneurs. table 2 number of registered and deregistered enterprises from the state register of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs in the years 2015-2019 indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 total average per month total average per month total average per month total average per month total average per month registered enterprises, un. 5985 499 5673 473 6406 534 5751 479 6136 511 deregistered enterprises, un. 3905 325 4055 338 8540 712 8895 741 10166 847 net growth 2080 173 1618 135 -2134 -178 -3144 -262 -4030 -336 source: authors’ calculation based on the data of the public services agency economy and sociology 47 june no. 1/2021 ✓ position of the republic of moldova in the international ranking doing business (on indicators, which refer to insolvency). according to the world bank doing business report, ed.2020, the republic of moldova ranked 67th in the “solving insolvency” indicator (out of 190 countries included in the ranking), marking a worsening in the ranking with 9 positions (2014-2020) (doing business, f.a., 2019). according to this ranking, the insolvency procedure in the republic of moldova lasts on average 2.8 years, and the costs related to the insolvency procedure constitute 15.0% of the value of the debtor's patrimony, which is above the average in eastern european and central asian countries (respectively, 2.3 years and 13.1%) and significantly more than in oecd countries (1.7 years and 9.3%). in order to characterize the legislation on insolvency / bankruptcy in the ranking is used the strength of insolvency framework index, which represents the sum of points assigned to the country for the commencement of proceedings index, management of debtor's assets index, reorganization proceedings index and creditor participation index. the value of the strength of insolvency framework index for the republic of moldova is 12.0 points out of 16 possible, or 75%. at the same time, the insolvency framework does not provide for the possibility of the debtor obtaining credit after the beginning of insolvency proceedings: the country obtaining 0 points on this indicator, which means that the enterprise ceases to exist after the completion of the insolvency process. the barriers faced by small entrepreneurs, oriented in obtaining a second chance in business. for a deeper investigation of the circumstances (factors), which favor and hinder the entrepreneurial activity, related to obtaining a second chance in business, the interview method was used. in the process of interviewing, a second chance means if the company: (1) is in financial or nonfinancial difficulty, which poses a threat to paying the debts, or (2) the company is unable to honor its financial obligations (3) the situation created is not related to fraud, then (4) the entrepreneur should have a real opportunity to restart his activities relatively quickly and not too difficult or to create a new business. the generalization of the interviews results with the entrepreneurs allowed to identify the following barriers, faced by the small entrepreneurs, oriented towards obtaining the second chance in business: 1. acute insufficiency of financial resources at the enterprise / entrepreneur. the entrepreneurs explained this problem by the following: • decrease in sales, conditioned by the change of the goods market conjuncture. for example, the emergence of new competitors in the market, the change in the consumer demand and preferences for the good of the respondents' businesses; • increased expenditures, first of all, increased payments for utilities and rent; • non-compliance with the financial obligations by customers; • deficiencies of the state policy to support entrepreneurship; • state policy at macro-level (high level of migration, change in exchange rate, corruption, etc.) 2. long and costly bankruptcy procedures, provided by the insolvency legislation; 3. limited information about the possibilities an entrepreneur, whose business is in a difficult situation (legal norms, support from institutions, etc.) can use; 4. insufficient training and experience of persons, who have to solve the problems of creditors and entrepreneurs / enterprises at the stage of insolvency (mediators, consultants, bankruptcy administrators, etc.); 5. insufficient institutions, interested and with the potential to support entrepreneurs that face financial or other problems in business; 6. the stress of entrepreneurs, who face insolvency or bankruptcy, lack of self-confidence, which is intensified by the distrust from people (both business partners and family members); 7. staff difficulties, largely caused by: • insufficient qualification of employees (workers and specialists) or even lack of people with certain professions and qualifications. consequently, the employment of people with inadequate qualifications leads to poor quality of work, low discipline, high staff turnover, collective conflicts, etc. theoretical and scientifical journal 48 june no. 1/2021 • insufficiency of professional qualification and entrepreneurial skills/experience of owners, managers. for example: the owner of the restaurant mentioned that “he started a business he did not know. it was first necessary to study about the activity related to restaurants.” 8. unqualified resolution of general issues related to the enterprise management, such as: • contradictions between business owners; • the main owner and manager had other obligations, working as an employee; • the goals of business development were not well thought out; management methods and styles were used inefficiently; • the company was simultaneously involved in several projects, which did not have the necessary financial support; • the owners of the company were not ready for the risks, or the risks were not taken seriously, or no measures were developed to overcome them; • low attention is paid to some management directions, in particular: business planning, including financial planning, price formation was incorrect prices for products were reduced, no advertising policy, the production control, marketing and supply management were insufficient. regarding the success of the new business, after the previous failure in business, the respondents expressed different points of view, including that the new business is in some cases more successful compared to the previous one. one of the respondents clearly mentioned that “the new business differs a lot, in a better sense, from the previous one: it has only one type of activity and a small number of employees. the respondent, being owner and director, has all the advantages in making strategic decisions, while in the previous business there was no mutual understanding between owners and administrators.” at the same time, during the interviews, the entrepreneurs expressed the need for various state support measures to quickly get a second chance. these referred primarily to changes in the legislation and judicial practices related to the bankruptcy procedure, as well as to the financial and institutional support of entrepreneurs to get a second chance. in addition, entrepreneurs paid attention to the general problems of sme development in the republic of moldova. in particular, it was proposed: a. as part of the amendments to the legislation on entrepreneurship and legal practices related to bankruptcy procedures: • to reduce the duration and complexity of legal procedure related to the closure of the business (in the absence of company debts). this does not require additional financial resources, as it depends largely on the level of bureaucracy. b. improving the financial support. extension of the state support measures, intended for newly established enterprises, including enterprises, which get a second chance. it is reasonable to implement these measures in the framework of the sme support programs. in particular: • to extend the state support under special/target programs for all moldovan sme, including those operating in chisinau (given that 64% of domestic economic agents operate in the capital). currently, support under special programs is intended primarily for businesses from the rural areas. • as possible state support measures for sme in the crisis situations, was proposed: 1) to reduce the rent payment (if the owner of the area is the state) or to compensate a part of the rent payment, which is very high at the moment; 2) postponement of the tax payment for the equipment and tools purchase necessary for the business development. for example, the respondent ordered a computer program abroad to develop mail delivery models. the cost of the program was $ 9,000, the tax was $ 2,000. the respondent refused to pay such a fee and had to go to moscow alone to bring the program, significantly reducing the purchasing cost. c. within the institutional support. any opportunities for institutional support of the second chance were enthusiastically supported by respondents, considering that improving the institutions activity is the most possible support form for entrepreneurs. in particular, it was proposed: • development of institutions that provide services to entrepreneurs: o at the stage of identifying new complicated problems in the business by providing assistance in the restructuring process, in order to keep the company and the jobs. according to the respondents economy and sociology 49 june no. 1/2021 “these services must be provided by public institutions, free of charge, given the state's interest in protecting jobs and paying taxes”; o willing to set up a new business or restart the previous activity after a forced cessation of activity or bankruptcy. • extending the process of informing entrepreneurs how to overcome the business problems. • assistance of professional psychologists in organizing counseling, to reduce the impact of stigmatization of the “bankrupt”. organizing the training of entrepreneurs in the field of risk management, crisis management, staff development; delegation of responsibilities; providing psychological support. the respondents mention that “it must be free and include rural areas”. • development of methodological instructions for entrepreneurs on early prevention of crisis situations, insolvency management, bankruptcy. • dissemination in society of information about the existence of the right to failure in any activity. the generalization of the interviews results with the entrepreneurs and the legislation analysis allowed to identify a range of directions to support the second chance, the main ones being the following: • improving the legislation and the control over its implementation; introducing changes in the policy documents. in particular, it is proposed: (a) to include in the aim of the insolvency law, in line with the interests of creditors, also where possible, giving the debtor-entrepreneur the chance to recover it business; (b) to add in the law on small and medium-sized enterprises, in particular, to the list of the target groups supporting smes, the group of entrepreneurs, who may benefit from the second chance. • facilitating the access to funding sources. in particular, during and after the financial crisis, the following forms of financial support for entrepreneurs are important: (i) reducing the debt burden for entrepreneurs, who have got a second chance (lower rates for unpaid debts); (ii) the possibility to obtain a loan after the initiation of the insolvency process, in particular, within the special programs; (iii) ensuring the access to state contracts for “honest” bankrupt entrepreneurs; (iv) providing facilities to entrepreneurs for payments, offered to consultations of lawyers, financiers, accountants and other insolvency specialists, whose services are usually quite expensive. • improving the training of entrepreneurs; providing advisory and information services. in particular: (1) training of entrepreneurs regarding the activity in difficult conditions, in particular, training courses on risk management, crisis management; personnel management; financial management; (2) training and advisory assistance of business specialists in overcoming crisis issues; (3) organizing mentoring and coaching activities to help those who want to get a second chance; (4) informing entrepreneurs from the sme sector about the possibility of using the restructuring procedure to overcome a business crisis situation; (5) developing and maintaining the website, which places the information necessary for the second chance. • changing the activity of institutions, aimed at giving smes a second chance. in order to support smes in overcoming financial insolvency, it is appropriate for the state to initiate or create specialized support institutions, or to assign new functions to existing public institutions. certain functions of granting a second chance to entrepreneurs in the republic of moldova are performed by persons with liberal professions (mediators, bankruptcy administrators) and their professional associations, whose activities are regulated by the ministry of justice. it is very important to provide assistance to companies in identifying difficulties at the initial stage of their emergence. in particular, as early warning systems could be the tax authorities, commercial banks, credit bureaus. • changing the attitude in society about entrepreneurs, who have suffered a failure in business, in order to improve the public image through education and media. in this context, it is relevant to disseminate information in society: (a) about the right to fail in any activity, especially in the field of business, characterized by a high degree of risk; (b) the success stories of entrepreneurs who have overcome crisis situations; (c) in a broader context about improving the image of entrepreneurs. theoretical and scientifical journal 50 june no. 1/2021 conclusions giving entrepreneurs a second chance is not limited to companies that have gone bankrupt, but is examined in a broader context in the politics of european countries. in particular, these are companies that are in financial difficulty or are facing non-financial difficulties; who have faced insolvency, have gone through restructuring or bankruptcy procedures. in order to develop a policy to support the second chance in business, it is rational to identify the barriers that small entrepreneurs face, which can lead the company to bankruptcy. the constraints of the local entrepreneurs, who have suffered a failure in business and would like to quickly benefit from a second chance in the republic of moldova are characterized by the following: (a) acute shortage of financial resources in the enterprise; (b) long and costly bankruptcy procedures; (c) limited information on the possibilities an entrepreneur whose business is in a difficult situation can use; (d) inadequate training and experience of specialists who have to deal with business difficulties (mediators, consultants, bankruptcy administrators, etc.); (e) the insufficient level of training of entrepreneurs in the field of business, in which insufficient attention is paid to issues related to the risk management; the crisis management, the human resources management, the financial management, etc.); (f) insufficient institutions, interested in supporting entrepreneurs, facing financial or other business problems; (g) stress of entrepreneurs, facing insolvency or bankruptcy procedures, lack of self-confidence, which is intensified by the distrust of people. in order to give entrepreneurs a second chance, it is relevant to use a wide range of support directions, the main ones being the following: (1) improving the legislation and controlling its implementation; (2) facilitating the access to funding sources; (3) improving the entrepreneurial training of persons involved in business and improving the professional qualification of other participants of the insolvency process; (4) changing the attitude in society towards entrepreneurs, who have suffered a failure in business, in order to improve the public image through education and media. references 1. aculai, e., stratan, a., & novac, a. (f.a.). sme support policy in the republic of moldova and assessment of its impact on business development. nier. https://economysociology.ince.md/sme-support-policy-in-the-republic-of-moldova-and-assessment-of-itsimpact-on-business-development-2/ 2. armour, j., & cumming, d. (2008). bankruptcy law and entrepreneurship. american law and economics review, 10(2), 303–350. 3. băncilă, n., & mihalachi, r. (f.a.). predicţia riscului de faliment al firmei. economy and sociology, 3, 92–97. 4. burlacu, n. (f.a.). managementul anticriză: stadiile falimentului organizației. analele universităţii libere internaţionale din moldova., 8, 47–56. 5. doing business. (f.a.). [text/html]. world bank. preluat în 28 aprilie 2021, din https://www.doingbusiness.org/en/doingbusiness 6. eberhart, r., eesley, c., & eisenhardt, k. (2012). failure is an option: failure barriers and new firm performance. https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/11445866/failure-is-anoption-stanford-university 7. hayward, m. l. a., shepherd, d. a., & griffin, d. (2006). a hubris theory of entrepreneurship. management science, 52(2), 160–172. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0483 8. levitskaia, a., ghenova, s., & curaxina, s. (2015). state policy of innovation oriented smes development: in case of the republic of moldova. http://irek.ase.md:80/xmlui/handle/1234567890/1140 9. liao, j. (jon), welsch, h., & moutray, c. (2008). start-up resources and entrepreneurial discontinuance: the case of nascent entrepreneurs. journal of small business strategy, 19(2), 1–16. 10. oecd, european training foundation, european union, & european bank for reconstruction and development. (2015). sme policy index: eastern partner countries 2016: assessing the implementation of the small business act for europe. oecd. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264246249-en economy and sociology 51 june no. 1/2021 11. stam, e., audretsch, d., & meijaard, j. (2006). renascent entrepreneurship. erim report series research in management erasmus research institute of management, article ers-2006-017org. https://repub.eur.nl/pub/7640/ note: the article is part of the research, funded by the projects: • “harmonization of sme development policy in the republic of moldova with the principles of the “small business act” for europe” (2015-2018), stage 2018 “improving the policy of sme support in the republic of moldova: improving opportunities for entrepreneurs, who have gone bankrupt and can quickly get a second chance” (№ 15.817.06.05a) • “multidimensional evaluation and development of the entrepreneurial ecosystem at national and regional level in order to boost the sme sector in the republic of moldova” (№20.80009.0807.38), 2020-2023 article history received 05 december 2020 accepted 06 may 2021 theoretical and scientifical journal 10 no. 1 / 2019 involvement in business of young graduates of vocational education and training institutions: the case of the republic of moldova elena aculai1, phd, associate researcher, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova natalia deliu2, phd student, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova young people from the republic of moldova, who intend to initiate or to develop their business are one of the targeted support groups within the framework of the state policy. this article analyzes various aspects of engaging young people in entrepreneurial activity: a brief assessment of statistical indicators is given; support measures for young entrepreneurs, implemented by the moldovan government and proposed by international/foreign organizations are outlined; features of young entrepreneurs and self-employed are revealed. the emphasis is placed on young graduates of vocational education and training (vet) institutions. the main results and conclusions are largely based on a survey applied on graduates of vocational education and training institutions who have already set up their own business or are self-employed. the survey has been implemented during 2016-2017 with the active participation of the authors. the results of the study showed that young people are interested in entrepreneurship and that learning the basics of entrepreneurship has a significant motivating influence on the initiation of their business and self-employment. often, the businesses of the young people are unregistered and they are combined with employment. only one third of the respondents know about organizations that can provide them various forms of support. one of the conclusions of the study presents that positive changes can be achieved much faster by combining the efforts of different stakeholders, in this case – the government, educational institutions, non-profit organizations and external donors. keywords: young entrepreneurs, involvement of young people in business, small and medium-sized enterprises (smes), smes support policies, vocational education and training (vet) institutions, republic of moldova. în republica moldova, tinerii, care intenționează să inițieze sau să își dezvolte afacerea, constituie unul dintre grupurile-ţintă vizate în cadrul politicii de stat. articolul analizează diferite aspecte ale implicării tinerilor în activitatea antreprenorială: este prezentată o scurtă evaluare a indicatorilor statistici; sunt analizate măsurile de sprijin pentru tinerii întreprinzători, implementate de guvernul republicii moldova și propuse de către organizațiile internaționale/străine; sunt dezvăluite caracteristicile tinerilor antreprenori și ale lucrătorilor independenți. accentul se pune pe tinerii absolvenți ai instituțiilor de învățământ profesional tehnic (iîpt). rezultatele și concluziile principale se bazează, în mare parte, pe sondajul aplicat absolvenților iîpt, care și-au creat propria afacere sau au o activitate independentă. studiul a fost realizat în anii 2016-2017 cu participarea activă a autorilor. rezultatele studiului au arătat că tinerii sunt interesați de activitatea de antreprenoriat, iar studierea bazelor antreprenoriatului are o influență motivațională semnificativă asupra inițierii activității de antreprenoriat și a desfășurării activităților independente. adesea, afacerea tinerilor este neoficială și este combinată cu angajarea în câmpul muncii. doar o treime dintre respondenți știu despre organizațiile care le pot oferi diferite forme de sprijin. una dintre concluziile studiului subliniază că schimbările pozitive pot fi realizate mult mai rapid prin combinarea eforturilor diferitelor părți interesate, în acest caz ale guvernului, instituțiilor de învățământ, organizațiilor non-profit și ale donatorilor externi. cuvinte-cheie: tineri antreprenori, implicarea tinerilor în afaceri, întreprinderi mici şi mijlocii (imm-uri), politici de sprijin pentru imm-uri, instituții de învățământ profesional tehnic, republica moldova. 1 © elena aculai, eaculai@yandex.com 2 © natalia deliu, natadeliu@mail.ru mailto:eaculai@yandex.com economy and sociology 11 no. 1/ 2019 в республике молдова молодые люди, намеренные инициировать или развивать свой бизнес, являются одной из целевых групп поддержки в рамках государственной политики. в статье проанализированы различные аспекты вовлечения молодежи в предпринимательскую деятельность: дана краткая оценка статистических показателей; изложены меры поддержки молодых предпринимателей, внедряемые молдавским правительством и предлагаемые международными/иностранными организациями; выявлены особенности молодых предпринимателей и самозанятых. акцент в работе сделан на молодых выпускниках учреждений профессионально-технического образования. основные результаты и выводы во многом базируются на опросе выпускников учреждений профессионально-технического образования, которые уже создали свой бизнес либо обеспечили самозанятость. опрос был реализован в 2016-2017гг. при активном участии авторов. результаты исследования показали, что молодежь проявляют интерес к предпринимательской деятельности, а обучение основам предпринимательства оказывает значительное мотивирующее влияние на инициирование ими бизнеса и обеспечение самозанятости. нередко бизнес молодых предпринимателей является незарегистрированным и сочетается с работой по найму. лишь одна треть респондентов знает об организациях, которые могут предоставить им различные формы поддержки. один из выводов исследования: позитивные изменения могут быть достигнуты значительно быстрее при объединении усилий разных стэйкхолдеров, в данном случае – правительства, образовательных учреждений, некоммерческих организаций и внешних доноров. ключевые слова: молодые предприниматели, вовлечение молодых в бизнес, малые и средние предприятия (мсп), политика поддержки мсп, учреждения профессиональнотехнического образования, республика молдова. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-01 jel classification: p29, l26, l38, l53 udc: 334.722 (478) introduction. in the republic of moldova, as in other european countries, the state policy of development of small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) is aimed at supporting various groups of entrepreneurs, one of the most significant being the group of young people. special attention to young entrepreneurs is explained by the fact that citizens under 35 years old represent a significant group of active population, in numeric terms, many of whom often cannot find a job that meets their needs in the country. the choice of the country where young people prefer to live and to work in the future depends on whether their work is claimed and paid by the society, as well as on their self-realization. moreover, the active involvement of young people in entrepreneurial activity can also revive business itself, since young people propose innovative entrepreneurial ideas, new and daring business models, new solutions for the existing problems. therefore, the use of various methods for involving young people in business together with their training and support at the stage of launching their own business represent important elements of the state policy and are also reflected in the activities of foreign donors and international projects operating in moldova. in the recent years, a special attention has been offered to young graduates of vocational education and training (vet) institutions, who have professional knowledge, but no practical work experience, thus facing considerable difficulties in getting employed. in such conditions, self-employment or the establishment of a micro-business gives to young people an additional chance for developing a career in their own country. involving young people in entrepreneurial activities: a review of scientific materials and eu business development policy documents a significant number of european researchers [6; 15] emphasized that there is a consistent evidence of positive advantages of stimulating youth entrepreneurship. young entrepreneurs are more likely to hire fellow youths; they are more responsive to new opportunities and trends; they posses better it&c related skills; young people are more present and interested in high growth sectors and young people with entrepreneurial skills are better employees. in this context, the issues of teaching entrepreneurial skills to youth, analyzed in recent years in the scientific literature, have a practical orientation in many respects – with the aim of reasoning and improving the state policy. theoretical and scientifical journal 12 no. 1 / 2019 one of their starting points of research is to discuss the specifics of the business of young people that appear due to their age. moreover, there is a point of view that even within the framework of young entrepreneurs, it is advisable to emphasize separate age groups. in particular, the english researcher f. chigunta suggests that there are three phases of youth entrepreneurship: (1) the initial stage, (2) the stage of development, growth and (3) the flowering stage. the first stage comprises young people aged between 15 and 19 who are preparing for entrepreneurial activity. young people face a transition period in which they have to make a choice between home, study, or job. the second stage includes entrepreneurs aged 20-25 who have already gained some experience, business skills and have earned the initial capital required to set up their own business. in the flowering stage the entrepreneurs are aged 26-29 years old. these entrepreneurs have a business experience already. this is the main advantage of these entrepreneurs compared to the beginners [7]. for the analysis of young entrepreneurs, the age criterion is not sufficient, being absolutely necessary to analyze various factors. this aspect was investigated by k. lewis and s. massey who analyzed the next young entrepreneurs according to two criteria – the entrepreneurial level of training of young people and the level of intent to start a business, and correspondingly determined 4 groups of potential young entrepreneurs [13]. many works in the specialty literature have been devoted to the issues of entrepreneurship education. researchers a-m. zamfir, e-o. lungu, c. mocanu, have analyzed the process of choosing an entrepreneurial career among university graduates from 13 european countries and concluded that the educational profile of graduates influences their opportunities to become entrepreneurs, especially the teaching methods used, the number of years of education and the acquired skills. at the same time, during the first five years after graduation, 11.4% of graduates have become entrepreneurs [16]. the problem of involving young people in entrepreneurial activity is present largely not only in scientific materials, but also in eu policy documents. in the documents of the most european countries and at the eu level, it is now recognized that sustainable economic growth is largely determined by the development of the smes sector. in the main framework document of the eu, aimed at supporting smes – the “small business act” for europe, one of the support measures highlights the necessity to “enhance the spirit of innovation and entrepreneurship among young people. thus, entrepreneurship becomes a key element of school curricula, especially in general secondary education. the document mentioned above ensures that these guidelines are properly taken into account in teaching materials" [8]. the necessity of the state support for entrepreneurial activities of young people is reflected in a number of subsequent documents developed by the european commission. in 2013, the entrepreneurship 2020 action plan was adopted at the eu level, aimed at strengthening the entrepreneurial potential of europe [10]. the plan suggests three areas for immediate intervention, one of which is “dynamising the culture of entrepreneurship in europe: nurturing the new generation of entrepreneurs”, including from the group of young people. in order to support the young people, a special attention is devoted to the enhancement of the role of entrepreneurial education. for example, in the guide for entrepreneurship educators, it is stated that reinforcing entrepreneurial education in schools, vocational education institutions and universities will have a positive impact on the entrepreneurial dynamism of economies of european countries. the necessity and efficiency of investing funds in this area is substantiated. in particular, it is stated that investing in entrepreneurship education is one of the highest return investments that europe can make: research shows that pupils and students who have participated are three to six times more likely to start a business at some point later in life than those who did not receive entrepreneurship education [9]. analysis of the quantitative indicators regarding the participation of young people in the economy, including in entrepreneurial activity in the republic of moldova analysis of demographic indicators shows that in the republic of moldova on january 1, 2018, the number of the young people (aged 15-34 years old) was 1.241 thousand people, or 32.4% of the total number of population. in the total number of youth, the proportion of men is slightly higher (51%), while the proportion of women accounts for 49%. relatively more young people live in rural areas (56.9%), while respectively, 43.1% live in urban areas (table 1). economy and sociology 13 no. 1/ 2019 table 1 distribution of young people from the republic of moldova by age groups, gender and place of residence, on january 1, 2018 indicator share, % total 100.0 including young people, 32.4 of which: 15-24 years old 15.2 25-34 years old 17.2 out of the total number of young people: men 51.0 women 49.0 out of the total number of young people: urban 43.3 rural 56.7 source: calculated by the authors based on the data provided by the national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova [4]. the activity of the young people on the labour market is reflected in the following data: over a third of young people aged 15-34 years old are employed, meaning they have a job place; 64.0% are economically inactive. among the latter, more than half (35.6%) are involved in the national education system [4]. the high level of unemployed among young people has been observed over the past few years, which is evidenced by the indicator ilo unemployment rate. the unemployment rate in the whole economy accounts for 4.1%; for young people aged 15-34 years old, this indicator is 1.6 times higher, amounting to 6.6% (table 2). table 2 ilo unemployment rate, 2017, % age group, years old ilo unemployment rate total, including: 4.1 15-34 6.6 15-24 11.8 25-34 5.1 source: calculated by the authors based on the data provided by the national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova [3]. out of the total number of population of 15 years old and over, who are employed or are searching for a job abroad, more than half (54.1%) were young in 2017, from which 15.9% are between 15 and 24 and 38.2% – 25-34 years old. therefore, young people, including those who graduated an educational institution, often turn out to be less in demand on the labour market due to the lack or insufficient work experience. the analysis of the main income sources of youth showed that the most important income sources of young people (14-34 years old) are financial means coming from the wages, especially being involved in the non-agricultural sector (32.1%), and from the parents/support (23,8%). the income from the entrepreneurial activity, craft and free professional activity is less significant and amounts to only 5.3%, while the self-employed agricultural activity – 8.5% (table 3). table 3 distribution of main income sources of youth (15-34 years old), 2017, % main income sources 2017 total income 100.0 including income from: wage activity in the non-agricultural sector 32.1 support 23.8 transfers from abroad 10.8 theoretical and scientifical journal 14 no. 1 / 2019 source: calculated by the authors based on the data provided by the national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova [4]. business statistics in the republic of moldova do not provide enough data for analyzing entrepreneurs differentiated by the age groups. the most representative data concerning the involvement of young people in business activities in moldova date back to 2009. in accordance with the existing indicators, the proportion of young people from the total number of entrepreneurs accounted for 22.7% from which 2.4% in the group of 15-24 years old and 20.3% in the group of 25-34 years old [1]. recent data makes it possible to assess only the involvement of young people in self-employment: in 2017, the proportion of young people with the professional status “self-employed workers” accounts for 24.4% in the total number of self-employed. this indicator is relatively lower than the proportion of young people in the total number of employed population – 31.6% (table 4). table 4 self-employed young workers by age group, 2017, % age groups, years old share in the total number of employed population share in the total number of self-employed workers total 100.0 100.0 15-24 6.6 5.2 25-34 25.0 19.2 source: calculated by the authors based on the data provided by the national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova [3]. given the relatively high unemployment rate among young people, the significant proportion of migrants among this group of the population, as well as their insufficient involvement in business/self-employment, we can conclude that the development of entrepreneurship may be an additional opportunity for the young people. this opportunity will provide them a certain level of income in order to feel more confident not only in the economy, but also in all spheres of activity, to participate more active in the public life and probably most important – to choose to live and to work in the home country. assessment of the state support policy for smes, with an emphasis on attracting young people in business in the republic of moldova by signing the moldova-eu association agreement, the republic of moldova is not only interested, but also obliged to take into account the main trends in implementing the policy of supporting entrepreneurship at the level of the european union, including the successful experience of individual european countries. the analysis of the state policy of smes support in the republic of moldova demonstrates that a number of laws, strategies and action plans provide support for various groups of the population who want to establish or to develop their own business. this support is aimed to a large extent at involving youth in business. the article 11 from the law of the republic of moldova on small and medium-sized enterprises [12], which entered into force in 2016, is devoted to state programs for the development of smes. in particular, there are 6 main directions, and for some of them, state programs are envisaged, the first of which being the support of young entrepreneurs in launching a business in the country. the main policy document adopted at the national level – small and medium enterprise sector development strategy for 2012-2020 [11] and the action plan for the implementation of the given strategy for 2018-2020 also includes a number of measures to support the youth intending to create their own small private business or those who already have it. first of all, there are proposed funding and training to young people as part of a targeted program (point 2.4.1. implementation main income sources 2017 social benefits 10.7 self-employed agricultural activity 8.5 entrepreneurial activity, craft and free professional activity 5.3 scholarships 5.1 wage activity in the agricultural sector 3.3 other income source 0.4 economy and sociology 15 no. 1/ 2019 of the national pilot program “start pentru tineri” / “start for youth”). sometimes the focus of state support on young entrepreneurs is carried out only through indicators of progress. for example, measure 2.3.1. financing of business in accordance with the program of attracting remittances to the economy “pare 1+1” provides the following data as an indicator of progress: 160 funded investment projects annually, for women and youth. in recent years, along with the ministry of economy and infrastructure and the organization for small and medium enterprises sector development of the republic of moldova (odimm), the ministry of education, culture and research has been included in the implementation of measures aimed at engaging in business and supporting young entrepreneurs. in particular, the ministry is obliged to support actions and initiatives to promote entrepreneurship among young people (p.3.2.3.). in addition, targeted programs are implemented in the republic of moldova directly, aimed at supporting young entrepreneurs. the main ones are presented below. the program “start for youth: a sustainable business at home”. the ministry of economy and infrastructure in cooperation with odimm agency has recently launched the national program financed from the state budget. the program aims to integrate young people from the republic of moldova into the economic circuit by facilitating the launch and development of sustainable businesses. the program offers two forms of support: (1) financial support, which is implemented through a “business voucher” for access to training and consulting services, as well as financing an investment project, which will not exceed 80% of the required investment in the amount of up to 180 thousand mdl. the second form of support (2) consist in informational, advisory and mentoring assistance at the stages of the development and implementation of an investment project for the next 2 years. the project "joint opportunities in business for youth", through which there were presented activities aimed at increasing the entrepreneurial and managerial abilities of young people by applying modern and innovative techniques, developing realistic business plans, promoting and stimulating team spirit, various ways of presentation. the project is funded by the european union through the moldova-ukraine cross border cooperation program and it is implemented by odimm in partnership with ukraine's "new generation" youth public organization. the cross-border entrepreneurial training project "joint opportunities in business for youth" (jobs4youth). its purpose is to initiate innovative businesses with a cross-border, social and economic impact, and to guide young entrepreneurs aged between 18 and 35 years. the "joint business opportunities for youth" project offers them the opportunity to train and also to meet new potential business partners in ukraine. the project is implemented under the moldova-ukraine cross-border cooperation program and it is financed by the european union. "create youiact" project offers a chance for young people aged 14-25 years to participate in the pre-accelerating program of business ideas. "create youiact" will include several elements: exchange fields, international mentoring, project ideas contest, training, field trips, etc. the project will focus on seven cities: chisinau, soroca, falesti, ungheni, cimislia, palanca (stefan voda), dubasarii vechi (criuleni), and other communities interested in participating. youiact participants have multiple opportunities from which we mention: to benefit from the transfer of ideas and exchange experience; to discover entrepreneurship; to plan and to test a project that will bring a change to the community or the city they live in; to launch a business idea or a project of a social, cultural or economical nature; to take advantage of mentoring and international coaching; to test their creative, competitive and entrepreneurial spirit; to discover their own strengths; to identify patterns of income generation; to present a business idea and identify the audience, and so on. facilitating credits for youth. the launch of the youth credit facility is initiated by the ministry of finance and it is fully based on the available funds of current investment credit lines funded by state external loans for the real sector development, which are granted by the world bank and the international fund for agricultural development. implementation of ycf aims to reduce the constraints related to young people's limited access to favourable financial resources and to provide additional support by reducing interest rates on loans. in addition, a few digital platforms are launched to help young entrepreneurs as the platform for cooperation and business support on "promoting innovation among young entrepreneurs"; upfactory; fablab chisinau, etc. theoretical and scientifical journal 16 no. 1 / 2019 together with public institutions, business associations also get involved in the process of supporting young entrepreneurs in the field of business. for example, the national association of young managers with the support of the argidius foundation, odimm and local partners, organizes the national youth business plan contest. the participants are involved in training courses and mentors' consultations, they present the developed business plans in front of a professional jury, and finally, the winners receive grants for business initiation or development [2]. ensuring self-employment and involvement of graduates of vocational education and training institutions in business in accordance with the education code, centres of excellence, colleges and vet schools are related to the vocational and technical education in the republic of moldova. education in these institutions is offered for more than 80 professions and 100 specialties, which are adjusted annually considering the requirements of the labour market. currently, 11 model centres, 32 colleges and 44 vocational schools are operating in the country. in the scholar year 2018-2019, 7.700 pupils were enrolled in secondary technical education and 29.000 pupils in post-secondary technical vocational education. in recent years, many significant innovations have been made in the vet system in the republic of moldova: dual education has been introduced, the financial autonomy of vet institutions has been increased, and measures have been introduced to improve career guidance, etc. the most significant innovations include the implementation in 2012-2016 of a series of measures of teaching the basics of entrepreneurship to students from vocational education and training institutes. in this respect, the national curriculum for the "entrepreneurship basics" discipline has been developed within the secondary vocational technical education institutions. the discipline is oriented towards the formation of competencies in pupils that will allow them to capitalize efficiently their own professional potential, and for the future – the effective initiation and management of some entrepreneurial activities. in a wider context, these skills must help young people to become more creative and active in any activity they will carry out in their personal and social lives. in addition to the curriculum, a set of documents has been developed for teachers, aimed at increasing the quality of the teaching process and providing support for pupils in assimilating the new discipline. the set of documents include: the methodological guide for teachers; suggestions for designing lessons in the "entrepreneurship basics" discipline; student specifications notebook. further, taking into account that the role of the lecturer in the learning process is a priority, training programs have been organized for the teachers involved in teaching the "entrepreneurship basics" discipline. also, there were organized trainings for those who were interested and prepared business plans for investors. the purpose of this action was to facilitate the establishment of the businesses by the graduates of the technical vocational education institutions. some of the training participants received mini-grants to initiate their own business. most of the above mentioned actions have been implemented by the centre for entrepreneurial education and business support jointly with the ministry of education, culture and research with the support of the external donor. in order to assess the implementation of the noted measures in 2016-2017, the tracer study on the professional route of the graduates of technical professional education institutions in the republic of moldova was conducted, which was organized by the centre for entrepreneurial education and business support (executive director – sofia shuleansky). the study has been carried out within the framework of meeeta – moldova project (iiird phase) “employment and entrepreneurship education and training activity” implemented with the financial support of the liechtenstein development service foundation [5]. tracer study results. during the study, 90 graduates of vet institutions have been surveyed. the average age of the surveyed graduates was 22.3 years old. boys dominated (57.8%) in the sample. relatively most of the respondents (55.6%) live in rural areas. almost half of the respondents (47.6%) indicated that they are employed. in the same time, a relatively high proportion of respondents – 39% initiated a business or were self-employed: 32.9% established a business where they were self-employed and another 6.1% – established business and employed people. also, some of the graduates indicated that they were employed and established a business at the same time. 4.9% were unemployed during the survey (table 5). girls indicated that they were employed relatively more often than the boys; young men relatively often noted that they had established their own businesses. economy and sociology 17 no. 1/ 2019 table 5 labour status of graduates of vet institutions labour status % of respondents i am employed 47.6 i set up a business where i am a self-employed 32.9 i set up a business and i hire employees 6.1 i am unemployed 4.9 others 8.5 total 100.0 source: outcomes of the survey [5]. graduates who created their business or were self-employed indicated that various people or events encouraged them to establish a business. most often (42.0%) they reffered to family members and close relatives. every fifth respondent (20.0% of the sample) noted that teachers from education institutions encouraged them to start a business. examples of surrounding people who already have a business also served as a significant reason – 16.0% (table 6). table 6 sources of encouraging the establishment of the own business sources of encouraging the establishment of the own business % of respondents family, close relatives 42.0 teachers from the educational institution 20.0 examples of surrounding people who already have a business 16.0 friends, neighbours 8.0 success stories read in literature, internet 8.0 others 6.0 total 100,0 source: outcomes of the survey [5]. among all the respondents, 90% of the surveyed graduates have studied the "entrepreneurship basics" discipline. 78.8% of the respondents indicated that the knowledge gained in the framework of this discipline influenced significantly the students to start a business. for 15.2%, the impact of the discipline was not significant (6.1%), or was absent – 9.1% (figure 1). figure 1. influence of the "entrepreneurship basics" discipline on the decision to establish a business, % source: outcomes of the survey [5]. influenced significantly 78,8 influenced insignificantly 6,1 did not influence 9,1 hard to answer 6,1 theoretical and scientifical journal 18 no. 1 / 2019 82.2% of the respondents from graduates of vet institutions completed post-vet training on entrepreneurship. the graduates involved in the trainings, in general, highly appreciated their importance for their careers. when giving a general evaluation of the training, 80.8% indicated on it’s high importance (32.9%) and very high importance (47.9%). in fact, all graduates of vet institutions, who subsequently participated in business training, have set up their own business. 2/3 of respondents (66.7%) mentioned that starting a business was not easy for them. the businesses created by the graduates, in most cases (77.4%) are not registered. young entrepreneurs, while explaining the reasons why they did not register their businesses, indicated, first of all, on high tax rates or small turnover / income / profit, which makes official business registration unprofitable. directly or indirectly, this was noted in most responses. other reasons for informal business activity include lack of building and agricultural land (for registering a peasant farm), seasonal work. only one answer indicated on the lack of financial resources to establish a business. the graduates involved in entrepreneurship were asked what is the biggest obstacle for them to develop their business. the lack of financial resources was indicated most often (in every fifth response). other obstacles were related to the lack of qualified personnel, the general economic situation in the country, the narrow internal market and high competition, as well as insufficient experience in the field. half of the graduates pointed the business problems that are caused by limited access to resources (lack of equipment, premises, expensive raw materials), as well as unfavourable conditions of the business environment related to legislation, high tax rates and local administration activity. analyzing the perspectives of the business/personal career in 1 year and 5 years, a relatively large proportion of the respondents expressed the intention of developing/ expanding their business. 48.6% of the respondents indicated on this perspective in 1 year; in 5 years, even more respondents (60.6%) saw the prospect of growth for their business. maintaining the business at the same level in 1 year is planned by 40.0% of graduates, while in 5 years this number will be much less 33.3%. only 5.7% of the respondents see the prospect of closing their own business in 1 year. the same percentage of the respondents (5.7%) plan to go abroad to search a workplace or to emigrate (table 7). table 7 career perspectives of business / personal business in 1 year and 5 years, % of respondents career perspectives in 1 year in 5 years develop / expand the business 48.6 60.6 maintain the business at the same level 40.0 33.3 closing the business and looking for a job as an employee 5.7 migration to work or emigration 5.7 6.1 source: outcomes of the survey [5]. the respondents have also indicated on the required support. accordingly, the first place is occupied by the need for finance (37.5%). to a lesser extent, but also significant, there was a need for information (20.0%), consultations (15.8%) and training (13.3%) (table 8). table 8 the need for support for successful development of the career types of support % of respondents financial resources 37.5 information 20.0 consultancy 15.8 training 13.3 space 10.8 others 2.6 total 100.0 source: outcomes of the survey [5]. the majority of the respondents (66.7%) do not know about institutions that can offer such kind of support. the graduates that recognized the supporting organisations, indicated on the economy and sociology 19 no. 1/ 2019 following ones: ceda (centre for entrepreneurial education and business support); afa (business women association of moldova); odimm (organization for small and medium enterprises sector development of the republic of moldova); ifad (international fund for agricultural development); financial institutions. main conclusions the policy of the government of the republic of moldova aimed at supporting smes is focused on engaging various groups of population in business, first of all – the young people. this is reflected both, in the basic laws and policy documents related to the development of smes, and in the targeted programs, projects and other initiatives to promote entrepreneurship among young people. opportunities for learning entrepreneurship, as well as financing of youths’ businesses at the stages of initiating, establishing and developing their business, are mainly provided. the analysis of the statistical indicators shows that in the republic of moldova the unemployment rate among the young people is relatively higher than the average for the economy. in the same time, young people amount for more than half of the total number of population of 15 years old and over, employed or searching for a job abroad; the share of young people involved in selfemployment in the total number of self-employed is relatively lower than the proportion of young people in the total number of employed population. the data mentioned above suggests that the development of entrepreneurship/self-employment among young people is very important. it can serve as an additional opportunity for youth that could provide them a certain level of income, to feel more confident in all spheres of life, to actively participate in public life and to remain living and working in their country. the experience of engaging young graduates of vet institutions in entrepreneurial activity was analyzed in the framework of the tracer study on the professional route of the graduates of technical professional education institutions in the republic of moldova. nearly half of the respondents indicated that they were employed. at the same time, a fairly high proportion of the respondents (39%) initiated a business or were self-employed. some graduates indicated that they are employed and have their own business, which can be explained by the insufficient level of entrepreneurial income. low income is largely due to the fact that the businesses created by the graduates of vet institutions, in most cases are not registered. it is also important to mention the fact that a relatively large part of the respondents indicated the intention to develop or to expand their business: almost half of the respondents indicated such a prospect for the following year and even more respondents saw this as an opportunity for the next 5 years. the public administration body that develops and implements education policies (ministry of education, culture and research) acted as motivator and partner to involve the graduates of vet institutions in the business. together with the non-governmental non-profit organization they actively supported reforms in the educational sphere, promoting entrepreneurship in the field of vocational education (ceda – the center for entrepreneurial education and business support). in this process were involved also the external donor interested in supporting the education system in moldova (led – liechtenstein development service) which provided financial resources, and, of course, vocational institutions that are aware of the need for a change. this proves that the support of young people in ensuring self-employment and the establishment of enterprises becomes more successful due to the joint efforts and close cooperation of the interested organizations. references 1. aculai, e. conditions for enterprise creation and development: gender analysis / national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova, undp, unifem. chișinău: nova imprim srl, 2009. 92 p. 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[accesat 13.03.2019]. disponibil: http://mrp.ase.ro/no73/f3.pdf 7. chigunta, francis. youth entrepreneurship: meeting the key policy challenges. wolfson college, oxford university. oxford: education development center, 2002. 35 p. 8. comunicarea comisiei către consiliul, parlamentul european, comitetul economic şi social european şi comitetul regiunilor. comisia comunităţilor. 2008. [accesat 15.02. 2019]. disponibil: http://eurlex.europa.eu/legal-content/ro/txt/pdf/?uri=celex:52008dc0394&from=en 9. entrepreneurship education: a guide for educators. european commission. 2014. [accesat 22.02.2019]. disponibil: https://www.schooleducationgateway.eu/en/pub/resources/publications/entrepreneurshipeducation---a.htm 10. the entrepreneurship 2020 action plan. european commission. 2013. [accesat 12.04.2019]. disponibil: https://ec.europa.eu/growth/smes/promoting-entrepreneurship/action-plan_en 11. hotărârea guvernului cu privire la aprobarea strategiei de dezvoltare a sectorului întreprinderilor mici şi mijlocii pentru anii 2012-2020: nr. 685 din 13.09.2012. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2012, nr. 198-204. [accesat 21.03.2019]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/viewdoc.php? action=view&view=doc&id=344806&lang=1 12. legea cu privire la întreprinderile mici și mijlocii: nr. 179 din 21.07.2016. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2016, nr. 306-313, pp. 23-28. [accesat 11.02.2019]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/md/366638/ 13. lewis, k., massey, cl. youth entrepreneurship and government policy. centre for sme research, massey university. palmerston north, 2003. 14. tineri antreprenori şi potenţiali antreprenori. magenta consulting. 2015. [accesat 11.02.2019]. disponibil: http://consulting.md/rom/statistici-si-publicatii/tinerii-antreprenori-si-potentialiantreprenori 15. mascherini, massimiliano, bisello, martina. youth entrepreneurship in europe: values, attitudes, policies. eurofound. luxembourg: publications office of the european union, 2015. 124 p. isbn 97892-897-1373-3. [accesat 09.02.2019]. disponibil: https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/ sites/default/files/ef_publication/field_ef_document/ef1507en.pdf 16. zamfir, ana-maria, lungu, eliza-olivia, mocanu, cristina. studiul comportamentului de antreprenoriat în rândul absolvenţilor de învăţământ superior din 13 ţări europene. in: economie teoretică şi aplicată. 2013, vol. xx, nr. 11 (588), pp. 35-43. [accesat 13.03.2019]. disponibil: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/923_ro.pdf recommended for publication: 17. 04.2019 http://statistica.gov.md/category.php?l=ro&idc=107 http://www.statistica.md/newsview.php?l=%20ro&idc=168&id=6086 http://ceda.md/event/studiu-de-marcare-a-traseului-beneficiarilor-proiectului-meeeta-iii/ http://ceda.md/event/studiu-de-marcare-a-traseului-beneficiarilor-proiectului-meeeta-iii/ http://mrp.ase.ro/no73/f3.pdf http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/ro/txt/pdf/?uri=celex:52008dc0394&from=en http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/ro/txt/pdf/?uri=celex:52008dc0394&from=en https://www.schooleducationgateway.eu/en/pub/resources/publications/entrepreneurship-education---a.htm https://www.schooleducationgateway.eu/en/pub/resources/publications/entrepreneurship-education---a.htm https://ec.europa.eu/growth/smes/promoting-entrepreneurship/action-plan_en http://lex.justice.md/viewdoc.php?%20action=view&view=doc&id=344806&lang=1 http://lex.justice.md/viewdoc.php?%20action=view&view=doc&id=344806&lang=1 http://lex.justice.md/md/366638/ http://consulting.md/rom/statistici-si-publicatii/tinerii-antreprenori-si-potentiali-antreprenori http://consulting.md/rom/statistici-si-publicatii/tinerii-antreprenori-si-potentiali-antreprenori https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/%20sites/default/files/ef_publication/field_ef_document/ef1507en.pdf https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/%20sites/default/files/ef_publication/field_ef_document/ef1507en.pdf http://store.ectap.ro/articole/923_ro.pdf economy and sociology 87 december no. 2/2020 analysis of the internal audit subdivision activity in the corporate sector of the republic of moldova elena petreanu1, phd student, state university of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-07 jel classification: d29, f02, f23, m42, o32 udc: 657.6(478) abstract the actuality of the topic results from the importance of internal audit for owners, potential investors and creditors, as well as from the significance of internal audit as a basic element in corporate governance. at the present moment, there are no studies on the current situation and the role of internal audit in the country's corporate sector. therefore, the author intended to perform the analysis of the internal audit subdivisions activity in the nominated sector. for this, the relevant research directions have been established, the purpose of which is to study the qualitative characteristics of the internal audit subdivisions. the author has conducted a qualitative study, through a semi-structured interview, and the information analyzed represents the october-december 2019 period. the main results of the study show that the basic functional tasks of an internal audit are the classic tasks, such as safety assessment and the effectiveness of internal control; monitoring the process of liquidating the weaknesses of the internal control system; developing recommendations for improving the internal control system. failure to comply with the provisions of isppia has been observed. the factors that most influence the activity of the internal audit subdivisions are their insufficient provision with employees and the duration of obtaining the necessary information. it was discovered that independent external evaluations are not performed and planned in the analyzed economic entities, which proves the non-compliance with isppia, due to the lack of need for such an evaluation and the relatively short period of activity of internal audit subdivisions. keywords: internal audit, corporate sector, qualitative characteristics, internal audit subdivision, research questionnaires, audit study. actualitatea temei rezultă din importanța auditului intern pentru proprietari, potențialii investitori și creditori, de asemenea din semnificația auditului intern în calitatea sa de element de bază în guvernanța corporativă. autorul a constatat că la momentul de față lipsesc studii vizând situația actuală și rolul auditului intern în sectorul corporativ al țării. de aceea, autorul și-a propus să efectueze analiza activității subdiviziunilor de audit intern din sectorul nominalizat. pentru aceasta au fost stabilite direcțiile de cercetare relevante, una dintre care reprezintă studierea caracteristicilor calitative a subdiviziunilor de audit intern. în acest context, scopul cercetării constă în examinarea caracteristicilor calitative ale subdiviziunilor de audit intern din sectorul corporativ al republicii moldova. pentru realizarea acestui scop de către autor a fost utilizată tehnica sondajului, fiind elaborate chestionare corespunzătoare domeniului de cercetare, care ulterior au fost transmise conducătorilor subdiviziunilor de audit intern din sectorul corporativ prin intermediul poștei electronice. informațiile cuprinse în chestionare reprezintă perioada anului 2019. rezultatele de bază ale studiului arată că sarcinile funcționale de bază ale auditului intern sunt sarcini clasice, cum ar fi evaluarea siguranței și eficacității controlului intern; monitorizarea procesului de lichidare a punctelor slabe ale sistemului de control intern; elaborarea de recomandări pentru îmbunătățirea sistemului de control intern. sa observat nerespectarea prevederilor isppia. factorii care influențează cel mai mult activitatea subdiviziunilor de audit intern sunt asigurarea insuficientă a acestora cu angajați și durata de obținere a informațiilor necesare. s-a identificat că în entitățile economice analizate nu se efectuează și nu sunt planificate evaluări externe independente, ceea ce dovedește nerespectarea isppia, din cauza lipsei necesității unei astfel de evaluări și a perioadei relativ scurte de activitate a subdiviziunilor de audit intern. cuvinte-cheie: audit intern, sector corporativ, caracteristici calitative, subdiviziune de audit intern, chestionare de cercetare, studiu în audit. 1 id orcid 0000-0001-7024-3081, e-mail: epetreanu@mail.ru mailto:id%20orcid%200000-0001-7024-3081 theoretical and scientifical journal 88 december no. 2/2020 актуальность темы обусловлена важностью внутреннего аудита для владельцев, потенциальных инвесторов и кредиторов, а также из значения внутреннего аудита как основного элемента корпоративного управления. автор констатировал, что на данный момент отсутствуют исследования, касающиеся нынешней ситуации и роли внутреннего аудита в корпоративном секторе страны. поэтому автор предложил провести анализ деятельности подразделений внутреннего аудита в указанном секторе. для этого были установлены соответствующие направления исследований, одна из которых-изучение качественных характеристик подразделений внутреннего аудита. в связи с этим, целью исследования является изучение качественных характеристик подразделений внутреннего аудита в корпоративном секторе республики молдова. для достижения этой цели, автором была использована методика опроса, разработаны анкеты, соответствующие области исследований, которые впоследствии были переданы руководителям подразделений внутреннего аудита корпоративного сектора через электронную почту. информация, содержащаяся в вопросниках, представляет собой период 2019 года. основные результаты исследования показывают, что основными функциональными задачами внутреннего аудита являются классические задачи, такие как оценка безопасности и эффективности внутреннего контроля; мониторинг процесса ликвидации слабых мест системы внутреннего контроля; разработка рекомендаций по улучшению системы внутреннего контроля. было отмечено несоблюдение положений isppia. наиболее важными факторами, влияющими на деятельность подразделений внутреннего аудита, являются недостаточное их обеспечение сотрудниками и продолжительность получения необходимой информации. было выявлено, что в анализируемых экономических субъектах не проводится и не запланированы независимые внешние оценки, что доказывает несоблюдение isppia из-за отсутствия необходимости такой оценки и относительно короткого периода деятельности подразделений внутреннего аудита. ключевые слова: внутренний аудит, корпоративный сектор, качественные характеристики, подразделение внутреннего аудита, исследовательские анкеты, исследование в аудите. introduction the implementation of the republic of moldova – european union (eu) association agreement and the intensification of market economy relations drives the reformation and modernization of the financial control system in our country, including the internal audit. currently, many managers of economic entities are aware that internal audit is of significant importance and is an important and essential element in their economic management. internal audit aims to provide managers with insurance and consultancy in order to achieve its objectives, offering recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of the activity’s result. the importance of the research carried out in this field is conditioned by the implementation in our country of the internal public financial control, the model of which is elaborated by the european commission, being part of the acquis communautaire and is to be transposed into the legal framework of all the new eu member states; also by developing a series of normative acts that regulate the internal audit of the public sector, which provide a wide spectrum of strict requirements regarding its exercise. the increase of interest in the implementation of internal audit in the republic of moldova’s corporate sector is conditioned by a number of factors, among which we can highlight the following: internal audit is an accessible resource, albeit underappreciated, the use of which contributes to increasing the efficiency of the entity; the big corporate scandals, which covered the united states of america and europe (including the republic of moldova), have demonstrated the failures in the functioning of the external audit, the consequences of which can be the bankruptcy of the big companies; the internal audit became attractive for the owners of companioes, who entrusted the management of the entities of the professional managers; the establishment of an effective corporate governance within the entity, the internal audit being an indispensable element of it, is a positive signal for the potential investors and creditors of the entity. currently, the internal auditors in the corporate sector are facing the problems of organizing and functioning of the internal audit, because these aspects are not sufficiently regulated under the normative aspect or provided in the decisions of the professional bodies, as practiced in other states. we consider economy and sociology 89 december no. 2/2020 that, the circumstances set out above confirm the actuality and importance of the research topic. one of the basic objectives of the research conducted by the author in the field of internal audit, is the complex examination of the activity of internal audit subdivisions (ias) in the corporate sector of the republic of moldova. the research directions have been established by the author, which in our opinion are relevant for investigating the current situation of internal audit in the country's corporate sector. these include: 1. the qualitative characteristics of the internal audit subdivisions. 2. human resources management. 3. operational activity. in this article the author focuses on presenting the first established research direction, such as, the analysis of the qualitative characteristics of the internal audit subdivisions. the research hypothesis is based on the need to examine the qualitative characteristics of the internal audit subdivisions, which contributes to the understanding of the current situation of the activity of the internal audit subdivisions in the corporate sector of the country. literature review it is necessary to mention that appropriate studies are needed to highlight the problematic aspects in the organization and functioning of the internal audit in the nominated sector, also to elucidate the perspectives in its development. in this context, after researching the native specialized literature, the author has found that, currently, there are no empirical studies regarding the current situation and the role of the internal audit in the corporate sector. in particular, the aspects studied by local authors refer to the internal public audit. thus, the results of the research conducted by cauş l. [caus, 2008:235-238], [caus, 2011:196-200] refer to the particularities of the implementation and regulation of internal audit in the public sector of the country, as well as to the elucidation of the planning stage of the internal audit missions. in his papers, author iachimovchi a. [iachimovshi, 2010:167-171], [iachimovshi, 2009:335-339] presents the basic methodological aspects of internal audit planning and monitoring the quality of audit work. author ratcov m. [ratcov, 2008:244-246], [ratcov 2008:258-260] reports on some theoretical aspects of internal audit, such as its role, functions, timeliness and perspectives. in these circumstances, we aim to fill the “gap” created in the local literature and to deepen the internal audit research in the corporate sector of the country through the present analysis. at the same time, we must note that at the global level there are various studies conducted by international prestigious bodies related to internal audit. thus, the institute of internal auditors periodically (once in five years) conducts the study "common body of knowledge on internal audit at a global level" (common body of knowledge, cbok) [7], with the primary objective of obtaining information concerning internal audit practices worldwide. at the same time, the collected data are the basis of the empirical studies in the field. analysing the content of the nominated study we find that the republic of moldova was not included in the studies performed in the field of internal audit. also, important research in the field can be found in the specialized literature from romania – an eu member state. in this context, we can mention the work of researcher sima a. [sima, 2010:16-25], the results of which show that in organizations that have developed an internal audit function, the process of alignment with the international internal auditing standards of the institute of internal auditors, it is either fully implemented or is in the process of implementation. relevant information is provided by another study in the field [precob, rusu-buruiana, 2015:13-21], carried out by precob c. and rusu-buruiana a. the results of the research carried out show that the evaluation of the risks of the audited company is the main criterion used by the internal auditors in the planning of their activity, and the biggest weight in the totality of the activities of the internal auditors includes the monitoring and evaluation of the risks, followed by the verification of the accounting processes and the preparation of financial statements. the most recent research developed in romania was carried out by the kpmg international audit company. entities from different sectors of activity were included in the study. the research highlighted the aspects related to the challenges of internal audit, among which the main ones were determined: effectiveness of the risk management program, availability of employees' skills, complexity and theoretical and scientifical journal 90 december no. 2/2020 uncertainty of regulations, strengthening corporate governance and strategic processes [10]. at the same time, it is necessary to mention the advanced studies in the field of internal audit from the russian federation. thus, the institute of internal auditors in this country conducts research every two years on the current situation and the trends of developing the internal audit. the latest research was conducted jointly with kpmg in 2018 [11]. the results of the study show that the functional attributions at the present time of the internal audit subdivisions of the companies in the given country consist in evaluating the safety and effectiveness of the internal control system and consulting the management on various questions, and in the trends of the evolution of the internal audit the risk management evaluation is outlined. data sources and methods used. in this context, initially, in this paper we proposed to investigate the areas of internal audit, i.e. the entities that include its scope. this fact allows us to identify the prospects for the functioning of the internal audit. the quantitative analysis of the data related to the entities registered in the republic of moldova presents the following results (table 1 and figure 1). table 1 information related to the registration of entities in the republic of moldova nr. the name number at 01.12.2019 1 2 3 1 limited liability companies 87182 2 individual entrepreneurs 28255 3 joint stock companies 2372 4 cooperatives (production, consumption, entrepreneur) 2338 5 state and municipal enterprises 1602 6 non-commercial organizations 464 7 other 1254 source: developed by the author based on data from p. e. "public services agency" [12]. figure 1. the structure of the entities that are registered in the territory of the republic of moldova, according to the legal forms of organization source: developed by the author based on data from p.e."public services agency" [12]. we must mention that the internal audit is current for public interest entities. in accordance with the law on accounting and financial reporting [13], a public interest entity represents the entity the securities of which are admitted to a regulated market; the bank; insurer (reinsurer)/insurance company; body for collective investment in securities with legal personality; large entity that is a state-owned enterprise or a joint stock company in which the share of the state exceeds 50% of the share capital. the quantitative analysis of the data related to the public interest entities registered in the republic of moldova presents the following results (figure 2). 71% 23% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% limited liability companies individual entrepreneurs joint stock companies cooperatives (production, consumption, entrepreneur) state and municipal enterprises economy and sociology 91 december no. 2/2020 figure 2. information related to the registration of public interest entities as of 01.12.2019 source: developed by the author based on the data of the national commission of the financial market (cnpf) [14]. public interest entities, apart from non-state pension funds, have the organizational-legal form of a joint stock company. according to the information presented in table 1, there are currently 2372 joint stock companies, which form the basis of the corporate sector in the republic of moldova. it is necessary to note that the present research was conducted using the qualitative research method, such as the semi-structured interview. for this purpose, the author developed questionnaires corresponding to the established research direction, which were submitted for completion to the heads of internal audit subdivisions of 20 entities in the corporate sector, operating in the financial-banking and financial-non-banking fields of the country. the information obtained through the questionnaires represents the october-december 2019 period. through the study, we aimed to identify and analyze the qualitative characteristics of the internal audit subdivisions. at the same time, the basic objective is to determine the compliance of the internal audit subdivisions with international advanced practices and the provisions stipulated by isppia, in particular we consider isppia 1300 "quality assurance and improvement program", isppia 1310 "requirements of the quality assurance and improvement program”, isppia 1311 “internal assessments”, isppia 1312 “external assessments” and isppia 1320 “reporting on the quality assurance and improvement program” [15]. the analysis of the qualitative characteristics of the internal audit subdivisions covers the aspects related to: ▪ identifying the structures that fulfil the function of the internal audit and determining their age; ▪ establishing the attributions and functional subordination of the internal audit subdivisions; ▪ identification of the basic users of the internal audit subdivisions; ▪ assessing the degree of independence of the internal audit subdivisions from the management of the entity and the support from the board of directors; ▪ specifying the factors that influence the activity of the internal audit subdivisions; ▪ establishing the aspects related to the evaluations of the activity of the internal audit subdivisions and identifying evaluation indicators; ▪ assessing the degree of satisfaction of the head of the internal audit subdivisions with the results of the activity. research results and discussions the processing and analysis of the data obtained from the interviewed entities denote the following aspects of the internal audit activity. according to the "qualitative characteristics of the internal audit subdivisions" research direction, structures that fulfil the function of internal audit were studied. thus, in all the interviewed entities the function of the internal audit is performed by a distinct structure. this fact is appreciated positively and indicates a clear separation of the nominated function within the entities and, accordingly, the distribution of internal audit tasks. public interest entities 68 entities situation as of 01.12.2019 • entities the securities of which are admitted to trading on a regulated market – 28 • financial institutions – 11 • insurance companies – 14 • non-state pension funds – 3 theoretical and scientifical journal 92 december no. 2/2020 regarding the age of the internal audit subdivisions, we note that it is relatively young in most entities the internal audit operates from 1 year to 5 years. in this context, it should be mentioned that globally and in europe, the position is significantly older, with around 25% of companies having organized the position for over 25 years [chersan, 2016]. another important aspect of the research is the determination of the basic functional attributions of the internal audit. among the basic functional tasks of the internal audit are the evaluation of the safety and effectiveness of the internal control; monitoring the process of liquidation of the weaknesses of the internal control system; elaboration of recommendations for improving the internal control system; management assistance in developing the internal control system and advising on various questions. at the same time, we see that in most of the entities subjected to the study the internal audit does not carry out the evaluation of the corporate governance and the effectiveness of the risk management system. this aspect proves non-compliance with the isppia 2110 “governance” and isppia 2120 “risk management” [15], which provide that the internal audit activity must evaluate and contribute to the improvement of governance processes and risk management, using a systematic and methodical risk-based approach. in our opinion, an important aspect in the organization of the internal audit function is the positioning of the internal audit subdivisions in the management hierarchy of the entity. practitioners in the field of internal audit [kryškin, 2017] consider that one of the main factors behind establishing the positioning of the internal audit subdivisions is the level of subordination. one of the main possibilities outlined at the moment is the functional subordination to the board of directors/the audit committee. this form is received as a classic and is predominantly used by high-level corporate governance entities. for example, in the russian federation this variant is especially prevalent in companies that are included in the top 200 of the most developed entities. it is considered that this ensures maximum independence of the internal audit unit, despite the fact that the tasks of the audit committee are the establishment of the priorities in the activity of the internal auditors, as well as the approval of the budget and the remuneration of the head of the internal audit structure. the results of the study present data on the functional subordination of the internal audit subdivisions in the corporate sector to the board of directors/audit committee, which is in accordance with the isppia 1100 “independence and objectivity”, isppia 1110 “organizational independence” and the best international practices [15]. the author considers that the use of this possibility in the conditions of the economic entities in the corporate sector of the republic of moldova implies some difficulties, such as: ▪ for the local entities, the audit committee represents a new concept, which is not fully implemented in the practice of entities in both the corporate and public sectors; ▪ the tasks of the audit committee (provided in the law on the audit of financial statements [18] do not include aspects related to establishing the remuneration of the head of the internal audit structure; ▪ the level of qualification of the members of the audit committee and their lack of experience do not allow to set clear objectives for the activity of the internal audit structure; ▪ performing the specific functions of the audit committee by the general manager of the entity. another question, to which we wanted to get an answer, represents the identification of the basic users of the results of the internal audit subdivisions. thus, the core users of the results of the internal audit subdivisions in all the analyzed entities are the board of directors/audit committee and the senior executive management. also, most of the entities included in the study indicate linear management and external audit among users. at the same time, the entities representing financial institutions also mention users such as the national bank of moldova and the national commission of the financial market. aditionally beneficial is the aspect that absolutely all entities report a high degree of independence from the management of the entity and also a maximum support from the board of directors/audit committee. the analysis of the results of the study identified the factors that influence the activity of the internal audit subdivisions. in most of these entities they include: insufficient provision of the internal audit subdivisions with employees and the long time to obtain the necessary information, and the financial institutions additionally mention the factor – unplanned audit missions, which were not included in the annual audit plan. economy and sociology 93 december no. 2/2020 as we know, requirement to perform evaluations of both internal and external audit activity is found among the basic provisions of isppia, in particular isppia 1311 “internal assessments” and isppia 1312 “external assessments”. analyzing the information related to the performance of internal audit assessments, we see that, in the entities included in the study, external evaluations are not performed and are not planned. at the same time, the research highlights the causes of not conducting independent evaluations. these include the lack of need for such an assessment and the relatively short period of activity of the internal audit subdivisions. at the same time internationally, for example, in romania the independent evaluation of the internal audit activity is performed in 58% of entities [16]; and in the russian federation in every fifth entity, included in the study [11]. regarding the current evaluation of the quality of the activity of the internal audit subdivisions, we notice that it is performed in absolutely all the interviewed entities, which is appreciated positively. identification of indicators for evaluating the internal audit activity is of particular interest for research. in most entities these include: the level of fulfilment of the audit missions plan; the level of implementation of the recommendations, obtained from carrying out the audit missions and the results of the interview of the members of the board of directors/the audit committee. and the fourth entity included in the study mentions the following among the evaluation indicators: the number of risks eliminated/mitigated following the implementation of the recommendations; deviations from the audit mission plan (by time and resources) and the results of the interview of the audited structures. and the level of satisfaction of the internal audit subdivisions’ director with respect to the results of the activity of the given subdivisions is maximal in most of entities, while the fourth part of the entities considers it partially, taking into account the fact that there are always things to improve. conclusions currently, the existing research in the field of internal audit in the republic of moldova refers to the public sector of the country. we mention that the present research is the first empirical study of the current situation of internal audit in the corporate sector of the republic of moldova. one of the research directions established by the author is elucidated – the analysis of the qualitative characteristics of the internal audit subdivisions. we find that, at the present time, there is an increase of interest in the implementation of internal audit in the corporate sector through the awareness of the fact that it is significant and represents a basic element in the management of economic entities. the research results denote the scope of the internal audit. this is represented by the joint stock companies, which form the basis of the country's corporate sector. the internal audit is actual for public interest entities, despite their importance to the public. the main conclusions that were made following the study undertaken by the author on the qualitative characteristics of the internal audit subdivisions in the corporate sector of the republic of moldova, include the following aspects: 1. the internal audit function in the economic entities from the country's sector is relatively young, in most of the internal audit subdivisions entities it operates from 1 to 5 years. at the same time, it should be mentioned that globally and in europe, the position is significantly older, around 25% of companies having organized the position for over 25 years. 2. we positively appreciate the fact that in all entities the internal audit function is performed by a distinct structure within them, which contributes to the clear separation of the responsibilities of the internal audit. 3. among the basic functional tasks of the internal audit are its classical tasks, such as the evaluation of the safety and effectiveness of the internal control; monitoring the process of liquidation of the weaknesses of the internal control system; development of recommendations for improving the internal control system. in the same type, we observe a non-compliance with the provisions of isppia 2110 “governance” and isppia 2120 “risk management”, which stipulate that the internal audit activity must evaluate and contribute to the improvement of the governance processes and risk management, using a systematic and methodical risk-based approach. 4. the study highlighted the factors that most influence the activity of the internal audit theoretical and scientifical journal 94 december no. 2/2020 subdivisions. among them we can mention the insufficient insurance of this with employees and the length of time for obtaining the necessary information. 5. another negative aspect, which was identified as a result of the study, is that in the analysed economic entities independent external evaluations are not performed and planned, which proves non-compliance with isppia 1300 "quality assurance and improvement program", isppia 1310 "requirements of the quality assurance and improvement program”, isppia 1312 “external assessments” and isppia 1320 “reporting on the quality assurance and improvement program”. the entities motivate this by the lack of the need for such an evaluation and the relatively short period of activity of internal audit subdivisions. at the same time, at the international level, the independent evaluation is given more attention, for example, in romania the independent evaluation of the internal audit activity is performed in 58% of the entities; and in the russian federation – in every fifth entity. references 1. cauș, l. implementarea şi reglementarea auditului intern în republica moldova. in: competitivitate și inovație în economia cunoașterii: probleme și soluții pentru românia și republica moldova: conferința științifică internațională, 26-27 septembrie 2008. chișinău: asem, 2008, vol. 2, pp. 235-238. isbn 978-9975-75-440-8, isbn 978-9975-75-443-9. 2. cauș, l., popovici, a. planificarea misiunilor de audit intern. in: analele academiei de studii economice. ediția a ix-a. chișinău: asem, 2011, pp. 190-194. isbn 978-9975-75-567-2. 3. iachimovschi, a. aspecte metodologice de planificare a auditului intern. in: premisele dezvoltării economiei naționale în contextual crizei economice: conferința științifico-practică internațională, 28-29 mai 2010. universitatea de stat “alecu russo”. bălți, 2010, pp. 167-171. isbn 978-9975-50-022-7. 4. iachimovschi, a. monitorizarea calităţii lucrărilor de audit. in: competitivitatea și inovarea în economia cunoașterii: conferința științifică internațională, 25-26 septembrie 2009. academia de studii economice din moldova. chișinău: asem, 2009, vol. 2, pp. 335-339. isbn 978-9975-75488-0. 5. ratcov, m. auditul intern – actualitate şi perspective. in: creșterea competitivității și dezvoltarea economiei bazate pe cunoaștere: conferința științifică internațională, 28-29 septembrie 2007. academia de studii economice din moldova. chișinău: asem, 2008, vol. 2, pp. 244-246. isbn 978-9975-75-401-9. 6. ratcov, m. rolul şi funcţiile auditului intern. in: competitivitate și inovație în economia cunoașterii: probleme și soluții pentru românia și republica moldova: conferința științifică internațională, 26-27 septembrie 2008. chișinău: asem, 2008, vol. 2, pp. 258-260. isbn 9789975-75-440-8, isbn 978-9975-75-443-9. 7. the institute of internet auditors. common body of knowledge (cbok) [cited 19 december 2019]. available: https://global.theiia.org/iiarf/pages/common-body-of-knowledgecbok.aspx 8. sima, a. studiu privind perspectivele auditului intern = study regarding the perspectives for the internal audit. in: audit financiar. 2010, vol. 8, nr. 10, pp. 16-26. issn 1844-8801 [cited 01 january 2020]. available: http://revista.cafr.ro/revistadetalii_ro?cod=13 9. precob, c., rusu-buruiană, a. caracteristicile auditului intern din românia. studiu privind percepţia auditorilor interni. in: audit financiar. 2015, vol. 13, nr. 9 (129), pp. 13-21. issn 18448801 [cited 29 november 2019]. available: http://revista.cafr.ro/revistadetalii_ro?cod=146 10. kpmg. auditul intern în era transformării continue. sondaj de opinie a auditorilor interni din românia. 2019, aprilie [cited 11 april 2019]. available: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/ro/pdf/2019/sondaj-auditoriinterni_romania_aprilie_2019.pdf 11. institut vnutrennih auditorov. issledovanie tecuŝego sostoâniâ i tendentij razvitiâ vnutrennego audita v rossii. 2017. 36 p. 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[cited 19 december 2019]. available: https://na.theiia.org/translations/publicdocuments/ippf-standards-2017-romanian.pdf 16. chersan, i.c. studiu privind practici și tendințe în auditul intern în românia și în lume. in: audit financiar. 2016, vol. 14, nr. 9 (141), pp. 929-945. issn 1583-5812, issn on-line 1844-8801 [cited 17 november 2019]. available: http://revista.cafr.ro/revistadetalii_ro?cod=1072 17. kryškin, o. nastol'naâ kniga po vnutrennemu auditu. riski i biznes-processy. moskva: alpina digital, 2017. 478 s. isbn 978-5-9614-4449-0 [cited 29 february 2020]. available: http://www.bibliorossica.com/book.html?currbookid=25531 18. legea privind auditul situațiilor financiare: nr. 271 din 15.12.2017. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2018, nr. 7-17, pp. 75-84 [cited 15 october 2019]. available: https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=110387&lang=ro article history received 04 february 2020 accepted 19 august 2020 http://www.asp.gov.md/ro https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=120938&lang=ro http://www.cnpf.md/ https://na.theiia.org/translations/publicdocuments/ippf-standards-2017-romanian.pdf http://revista.cafr.ro/revistadetalii_ro?cod=1072 http://www.bibliorossica.com/book.html?currbookid=25531 https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=110387&lang=ro economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 115 educational immigration to moldova: opportunities and challenges for participation in the international market of educational services doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-10 olga poalelungi, centre for demographic research national institute for economic research, moldova https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5012-9505 e-mail olga.poalelungi@ccd.ince.md received 18 may 2022 accepted for publication 24 june 2022 https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-10 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5012-9505 https://e.mail.ru/compose/?mailto=mailto%3aolga.poalelungi@ccd.ince.md economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 116 abstract the mass emigration of the youth from moldova, including educational emigration, usually without a subsequent return home, has negatively impacted the demographic situation and the number of students in moldova's higher education institutions. the internalization of the higher education system allows moldova to actively involve itself in educational migration to attract international students to moldova's universities and use academic immigration as investment potential for developing higher education institutions. the article displays the results of an investigation related to attracting international students to moldova's higher education institutions. the work is based on the analysis of national legislation in education and migration fields. the results of qualitative research were carried out in 2022 by interviewing specialists of higher education institutions responsible for the work with international students. the study aims to find out opportunities to increase the universities' potential in attracting international students, possibilities and main impediments in this process. the results show that to attract international students to moldovan universities, it is necessary to determine the institutions or facilities y that could be attractive for international students. a systematic approach to the development and promotion of educational migration should be adopted, considering the specifics of the countries in the region and the possibility of amending the migration legislation. keywords: international educational migration, higher education, foreign students, export of educational services emigrarea masivă a tinerilor, inclusiv plecarea lor la studii peste hotare, ca regulă fără revenire în patrie, a avut impact negativ asupra pieței muncii, dar și asupra numărul studenților în instituțiile de învățământ superior din țară. internaționalizarea sistemului de învățământ superior permite moldovei să se implice mai activ în migrația internațională în scop de studii, pentru atragerea studenților străini în instituțiile de învățământ superior din moldova, folosirea imigrării în scop de studii ca un potențial investițional în dezvoltarea universităților. în articolul dat se prezintă rezultatele cercetării privind situația ce ține de atragerea studenților străini în instituțiile superioare de învățământ din moldova. la baza cercetării au stat analiza legislației în domeniul educației și legislației imigraționale, precum și rezultatele unei cercetări calitative efectuate în 2022 prin intervievarea personalului responsabil de lucrul cu studenții străini din cadrul instituțiilor de învățământ superior. scopul cercetării consta în determinarea oportunități creșterii potențialului instituțiilor superioare de învățământ în atragerea studenților străini, posibilitățile existente și impedimentele principale în procesul dat. rezultatele cercetării au arătat, că pentru atragerea studenților străini în instituțiile superioare de învățământ din moldova este necesară indicarea concretă a instituțiilor/facultăților ce prezintă interes prioritar pentru studenții străini, elaborarea unei abordări sistemice în elaborarea și promovarea imigrării străinilor în scop de studii, ținând cont de specificul țării lor de origine, precum și posibilitatea modificării legislației migraționale. cuvinte cheie. migrația internațională în scop de studii, învățământ superior, studenți străini, export de servicii educaționale массовая эмиграция молодежи молдовы, в том числе выезд на учебу в другие страны, как правило, без последующего возвращения на родину, оказала негативное влияние как на демографическую ситуацию в целом, так и на численность студентов молдавских вузов. в данной статье представлены результаты исследования ситуации по привлечению иностранных студентов в вузы молдовы. работа основывается на анализе национального законодательства в области образования и миграции, а также результатов качественного исследования, проведенного в 2022 г. путем интервьюирования специалистов вузов, ответственных за работу economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 117 с иностранными студентами. цель исследования − определить возможности увеличения потенциала университетов в привлечении иностранных студентов и основные препятствия для данного процесса. результаты исследования показали, что для привлечения иностранных студентов в вузы молдовы необходимо четко определить более приоритетные вузы/факультеты, представляющие интерес для иностранных абитуриентов, выработать системный подход в разработке и продвижении образовательной иммиграции с учетом специфики стран происхождения студентов, а также рассмотреть возможность изменения миграционного законодательства. ключевые слова: международная образовательная миграция, высшее образование, иностранные студенты, экспорт образовательных услуг jel classification: f22, h100, i20 udc: 314.742(478) introduction participation in the education services international market offers countries the possibility to get economic, demographic and political dividends, as the demand for the education provided in the country and its quality increases the country's image internationally. according to world trade organization's data, the volume of the world education market is 50-60 billion us dollars, which is controlled by countries such as the usa, uk, austria, france, and germany. at the same time, the number of youth interested in educational migration is also growing. for recent decades, half of the students in the world market have come from asian countries. china, correa, malaysia, india, and hon kong are leading countries in this sense. in the second place, there are near eastern arab countries and north african countries such as morocco, iran, jordan, algeria, and palestine. the leaders of the international education services market are the usa, earning on international students fifteen times the amount that the government earmarks for this purpose. in addition, the uk, german, french, austrian, canadian and spanish higher education institutions take an active part in attracting international students. at the same time, a rise in the activity of relatively small countries as estonia and czechia was noticed in recent years in the market of educational services, which implement systematic policies aiming to improve the methods in attracting international students, facilitating their adaptation and integration up to their naturalization. consolidation of the competition for highly qualified human resources both among developed countries and rapidly emerging countries, as well as the perception of educational migration as a factor of countries' high competitiveness and increase of human capital, are global trends in today's field of migration processes (ignatova & gorbunova, 2020). educational migration flows become more intense, and the question is whether the moldovan higher education system will profit from this possibility and what role it will play in this process. the work aims to highlight the possibilities for the participation of moldovan higher education institutions in the international market of education services and factors contributing to this process or halting it. research methodology economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 118 the study is based on legislation in higher education analysis concerning the transition of the bologna system, immigration law, statistical and administrative data. a qualitative study was carried out through in-depth interviews with specialists from the ministry of education and research and the ministry of interior bureau of migration and asylum (2 interviews), as well as the university's staff responsible for the work with international students (15 interviews). the study was conducted in may 2022. the main purpose is to determine the positions of universities in attracting international students and their opportunities/needs for intensifying these processes. the interview guide contained blocks of questions regarding the availability of academic staff, necessary infrastructure, the possibility of mutual recognition of diplomas, impediments to increasing the number of international students, etc. literature review educational migration matters are given great attention by uk, german, and slovenian scientists in their research (ribeiro, 2021; rehak, 2020; velazquez, 2022; osler, 2020) etc., as well as in post-soviet countries such as the russian federation, belarus, ukraine, kazakhstan and others (zamotin, 2016; varshavskaya&chudinovskikh, 2014). education is perceived as one of the tools of migration and integration policies (mukomel, 2015) some research mentions that with the decrease of the birth rate and population ageing, it is necessary to activate the immigration policy, including the one concerning education-related immigration. to attract qualified human capital to the economy is required to improve the work on attracting foreign citizens to study with the possibility of their subsequent naturalization (fokeeva & rytova, 2020, tihonova & kormiltchik, 2017). the trans nationalization of higher education, crossborder presentation of educational programs, the influence of the global knowledge hierarchy, image and reputation of higher education institutions, non-uniform mobility of educational migration, differentiation of the value of international higher education, correlation of matters of migration, citizenship and development of education system were studied (waters & brooks, 2021; velazquez & eghert, 2022). a significant number of works are devoted to the systemic approaches in overcoming cultural and social barriers for foreign students, especially from the countries of the global south, the definition of basic criteria for their best integration (abdulai et al., 2021). analysis of legislation in education and migration since 2005 moldova, along with 47 other countries, has been a part of the bologna process 6 . though with certain flaws, the reforms carried out under this process in the field of higher education allowed the country to implement the provisions of the bologna process. the following aspects were implemented: (a) the system of comparable degrees, including the implementation of the academic transcript to ensure the employment possibility for european citizens and increase the international competitiveness of the european higher education; (b) the introduction of two-cycle education: undergraduate and postgraduate; (c) implementation of the european credit unit mutual recognition system to support large scale student mobility (grade system); (d) development of student mobility and increase of academic and other staff mobility; (e) contribution to the european cooperation in quality assurance aiming at developing matching criteria and methodology, interinstitutional collaboration, mobility schemes and common education programs, etc. therefore, moldova has a particular competitive priority in higher education compared to countries not parties to the bologna process. 6 except medical education, since the duration of the study period in medical universities has not changed. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 119 in 2014 the education code of moldova was adopted by law no. 152 dated 07.07.2014. the code instituted an equivalent education document, i.e., an education document received through the same education system either in the country or abroad. there were introduced state educational standards that established mandatory conditions for the implementation of education programs at all levels and education cycles in public and non-public education institutions, the minimum compulsory standards related to educational programs, minimal mandatory work volume for students and academic staff, to infrastructure and equipment of the institution, to the level of competence of the graduates and the organization of the education process. the state educational standards serve as the basis for an objective assessment of the education quality, level, and qualification of the graduates regardless of education form. during subsequent reforms, an assessment of the country's higher education institutions was conducted under the methodology and criteria of the national agency for quality assurance in education and scientific research and approved by government. the draft intergovernmental framework agreement on recognition of diplomas, academic qualifications, skills and competencies with 23 european states, including destination countries of moldovan emigrants, was approved. concerned countries are italy, france, great britain, ireland, denmark, germany, poland, hungary, sweden, norway, finland, czech republic, slovenia, slovakia, bulgaria, portugal, greece, turkey, israel, cyprus and baltic countries. in addition to the agreements achieved on an intergovernmental level, the country's universities have the right to independently establish connections with higher institutions worldwide. the mechanism of enrolment of foreigners in higher education institutions, the procedure of their transfer to other higher education institutions of the country as well as the legalization of foreigners' education documents were additionally regulated by a special governmental decision no.504 of 04.07.2017 "on approval of the disposition on education of foreigners in the higher education institutions of moldova and annulment of some governmental decisions". the reform of the higher education system, its modernization and the introduction of educational standards comparable with european ones have triggered academic mobility, participation of moldovan higher education institutions in international programs such as erasmus+programme, and increased the attractiveness of the higher education institutions for international students. for instance, international students in moldovan universities participated in the erasmus mundus student exchange programme with universities in turkey, hungary, belarus, poland, and germany. the further development and functionality of the higher education system depend on the demographic factor. the decrease in the number of youth due to emigration and the birth rate decline led to a fall in the number of national students enrolling in universities. there is a constant annual average decrease of 9% compared to the previous year during 2007-2021, from 128 thousand to 59 thousand students. the country's higher education system is thus facing a double loss a decrease in the number of national students and the failure of cultivated academic staff, having the infrastructure capable of meeting the needs of the educational process for a more significant number of people. moldovan universities have a highly professional teaching staff: 60% of the contingent (2400 people) hold a scientific degree; 87.5% phd; 12.5% are habilitated doctors. there is a need to use the possibilities of the moldovan higher education institutions system to promote a systemic national policy of attracting educational immigrants. however, even with attractive conditions and the opportunity of choosing a university in a particular country, state immigration policies that facilitate the entry and stay of young students in the country are no less important for foreigners. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 120 immigration issues are treated ambiguously in moldova due to the post-soviet prohibitive law enforcement practice, the negative attitude of the population to the consequences of the 2014-2015 migration crisis in eu countries2, the presence of a certain degree of xenophobia, the lack of a vision in the interaction between immigration processes and economic development, protection of the citizens' security, etc. the country's active involvement in the processes of globalization contributed to adopting a national legal framework for the requirements of international treaties and the eu directives in migration, human rights, education, etc. and their transposition into national legislation. according to the eu legislation, specific priority measures have been introduced into national legislation during the "national action plan for the implementation of the association agreement between moldova and the european union for 2017-2019". in immigration, it was proposed to define criteria for the selective and controlled admission of foreigners to the country, considering the needs of the labor market, capital, investment, etc. subsequently, an integrated approach made it possible to develop several policies oriented to migration opportunities aimed at development. in particular, governmental decision no. 200 of february 26, 2016 "on the approval of the national strategy "diaspora-2025" and the action plan for its implementation for 2016-2018" was adopted. immigration to study in moldovan universities is regulated by law no. 200 of 16.07.2010. "on the regime of foreigners in moldova" defines general rules for granting the right to temporary residence in moldova for educational purposes to foreigners entering moldova to study at pre-university, graduate or postgraduate level educational institutions. the law also regulates the temporary stay in the country of trainee graduates of higher education institutions from a member state of the european union or other states. moldova government decision no. 655 of 08.09.2011 "on the approval of the national strategy for migration and asylum (2011-2020)" is significant. according to the strategy, the directive of the council of europe of 2004/114/ce of december 13, 2004, the conditions for the admission of thirdcountry nationals for educational purposes, student exchange, unpaid vocational training or volunteer activities and others were transposed into national legislation. the strategy also set "the promotion of higher education institutions of moldova to attract foreigners to study. determining the conditions under which foreigners, upon graduation, may extend the period of stay in moldova" as one of the goals. international students are enrolled in educational institutions of moldova according to the national legislation, international agreements, and international/regional projects/programs to which moldova is a party. agreements concluded between educational institutions accredited in the prescribed manner, as well as individual contracts concluded between foreigners and educational institutions. the selection and enrollment of international students is performed directly by universities based on education documents from the country of origin, allowing access to the appropriate level of education (study cycle) in moldova. several moldovan universities select prospective students directly in their country of origin, which ensures the quality of selection while reducing the cost of education for students. the legislation regulates the admission procedure of foreigners to the general, vocational and higher education institutions of moldova, as well as the obligations of universities to organize a quality learning process for foreigners. the conditions for entry and obtaining a residence permit in moldova by international students are pretty simple. permission for a temporary stay in moldova is granted by the ministry of the interior bureau of migration and asylum at the request of the educational institution (a document confirming the student's enrollment for study) with confirmation of necessary funds for education in moldova. the national passport, proof of accommodation, medical insurance, and a certificate of no criminal economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 121 record students have to submit along with the application. the originals and copies of the civil status acts are also presented if necessary. foreigners entering moldova to study in pre-university, graduate or postgraduate level institutions must open a long-term study visa to enter the country. the physical presence of the foreigner in a moldovan consular office abroad is required for the visa obtaining, which is not always possible due to insufficient diplomatic missions abroad. according to ministry of foreign affairs and european integration data, only 33 of them, many concurrently serving several countries. diplomatic missions are represented mainly in the countries of the european region, canada and the usa. as for asia, which is the most promising in terms of the possibility of attracting potential students, the opportunities for our diplomatic missions are limited. the additional time and significant travel costs required to open a study visa led to an increase in the overall cost of educational services for residents of this region, which leads to the loss of a part of the people who may become potential students of our universities. suppose there is an interest in activating the presence of moldova in the educational services market. in that case, it will be necessary to develop possible mechanisms to solve the issue of visa availability. amendments to the legislation and the possibility of visa-free movement of citizens of moldova to the cis and eu countries have made the country more attractive for immigration, the flow of which is increasing slowly but constantly. between 1994 and 2019, the number of annual applications for a residence permit rose from 1543 to 4757. applications related to admission to study at moldovan universities increased from 515 to 625. immigration for study at the universities of moldova accounted for a high share in the total number of foreigners who entered. in the 1996-2000 and 20132018 periods, the percentage of educational immigration amounted to more than 40% and 22%, respectively, in the total immigration flow. the total number of foreigners with a residence permit in moldova to study for the 2020/2021 academic year was 4.6 thousand and for 2021/2022 5.2 thousand people. every second international student receives a medical education. according to the bureau of migration and asylum by the ministry of internal affairs, most of the international students are citizens of romania (40.1%), israel (35.6%), india (12.1%), ukraine (2.6%), the united states (1.7 %) and turkey (1.4%). the attractiveness of educational immigration to moldova is determined by the existence of universities that provide study opportunities in several popular areas (medicine, pharmacology, information technology, international economic relations, etc.) at relatively low education costs. however, the national higher education system lost the volume of exports of educational services to a number of countries whose citizens previously studied in moldova. from 2000 to 2004, the number of students from romania decreased nine times; from 2000 to 2006 the number of ukrainian students fell by half, and from syria almost four times. since 2009, the number of students from israel in moldova has increased, and since 2014 from india. language particularities, the existence / absence of common cultural and religious traditions with the students' country of origin required more flexibility from the university academic staff in organizing the educational process in a way that would avoid wasting time required for learning the language, to ensure the best adaptation of students. thus, the enrollment of international students from india, israel, and syria allows moldovan universities, by improving the qualifications of the teaching staff, to organize the educational process in english or another language that is widely used in the region. teaching in one of the international languages contributes to the growth of the competitiveness of the educational institution. for example, within the "n. testemitanu state medical and pharmaceutical university" teaching is conducted in romanian, russian, english or french, in the academy of economic studies of moldova in romanian and english, in the independent international university of moldova in russian, romanian and english, in the comrat university, where education is conducted in russian and turkish. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 122 priorities for attracting international students to moldovan higher education institutions. the results of qualitative research the competition for talented and highly qualified human resources is currently increasing. the intensity of educational migration is due to many factors: (a) the increasing importance of education as a result of the development of the information/digital society; (b) the need for continuous education and continuous professional development in connection with the modernization of the labor market and increasing competition in connection with this; (c) the existence of integrated educational systems that meet the regional/global needs of the economy; (d) internationalization of the educational environment, the introduction of common educational standards, etc. educational migration opens opportunities to preserve and develop the higher education system in moldova. eliminating several gaps in the higher education system and improving the conditions for foreigners' stay in the country for study purposes would contribute to the more active involvement of moldovan universities in this process. the rankings of universities are an essential guideline for youth in choosing their country of study, and the positions of moldova's higher education institutions in the international classification, are far from first place. however, several other factors also influence the choice of moldova for education, and this is not only the ranking of the university and the cost of education. surveys conducted among international students in other countries (pimanova &fomina, 2019) also revealed several expectations of international students regarding the educational institution and the host country, which can be considered and used in moldova. among the main factors, one can note the high education quality, diploma prestige; competence of teaching staff involved in the educational process; moderation of expenses for accommodation, food and insurance in the country; medical expenses, volume and quality of medical services provided to foreign students; knowledge of the language, level of adaptation and awareness of foreign students in the host country; attractiveness of the country for education, in our case of moldova; the possibility to obtain a long-term visa for education (list of required documents, presence of an embassy in the country of residence, etc.); desire to get an education in a more developed country, compared with the country of residence and, if possible, employment in it after graduation; opportunity to use the acquired knowledge in their native country; existence/absence of religious and cultural traditions that give rise to certain personal risks for the student (risks for a foreigner to get involved in illegal activities in the host country). correlating these expectations with the possibilities of moldova, we can determine the potential for more active participation of moldova in the export of educational services. there are 20 public and private higher education institutions in moldova, which have a particular experience working with international students. in the interviews, the experts noted the strengths of universities: (a) reform of university management and management under european standards and their integration into global and regional education systems; (b) strengthening contacts between higher education institutions and the labor market; (c) the presence of a network of higher education institutions capable of providing potential students with a range of specializations of interest now or in the future, such as medicine or information technology, international finance and banking, technical professions; (d) relatively low tuition fees as compared to other countries; (e) the positive and long-term experience of moldovan universities in working with international students from the european and asian regions; (e) availability of the necessary infrastructure for study and living; (i) relatively liberal immigration policy, etc. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 123 according to the results of the qualitative research, all universities are interested in attracting international students on a contract basis, which can help strengthen the university's facilities. depending on the higher education institution and the faculty to which the student is enrolled, the annual tuition fee currently varies from 1.5 to 6.0 thousand dollars, which is several times less than that of other european countries and is an attractive rate for international students. to attract international students, most universities have created special departments responsible for providing information and attracting prospective students from foreign countries, accepting the necessary documents, assisting potential students in obtaining a residence permit, housing, etc. a potential student can also get more detailed information about the country, university, conditions of admission, and the possibility of participating in student mobility programs on universities' websites in one of the un languages. during the interview, a few bureaucratic barriers were also mentioned, the simplification of which would contribute to better interaction between universities and international students. in particular, the practicality of simplifying the procedure for obtaining a residence permit by including the preparatory period in the general period of the educational process was emphasized, streamlining the forms of statistical reporting, the need for a more preferential procedure for serving universities by the institution responsible for documenting foreigners, etc. experts also noted that in moldova, unlike many european countries, the best categories of international students are not provided with employment according to the diploma obtained. the experts mentioned that there is no information on cases of non-recognition of moldovan diplomas abroad since the ministry of education and universities do not have the practice of monitoring the employment abroad of foreign graduates of our universities according to their speciality. the absence of such data makes it impossible to objectively determine to what extent the quality of training at a moldovan university meets the expectations and is in demand by employers in the country of origin. therefore, it is difficult to determine the prestige of a moldovan diploma and the possibilities of further attracting other representatives of these countries to study. conclusions depending on the priorities established at the national or higher education institutions level, the international market of educational services allows for solving demographic or economic problems, using educational immigration as a particular investment potential. the country's higher education institutions and responsible departments should consider the academic, financial and material needs for more active participation in the market of international educational services, using and supplementing the existing advantages. in particular, the following possibilities should be considered: o purposeful allocation of resources to strengthen universities and/or faculties/ specializations most in demand by international students in moldova, to modernize their educational base, provide the possibility of teaching in english, and improve living conditions for international students. it is possible to use the experience of other post-soviet countries, such as estonia, which brought several national universities to a high rank (21) among 1300 educational institutions in the world. it should be considered that according to the international scale of educational services, the most demanded fields among international students are currently business education (specializations related to economics, management, marketing, business information systems, etc.) almost 25%, technical and engineering sciences, especially information technology (20 %), natural sciences, mainly mathematics (20%), social specializations (7-8%), art (5-6%) and medicine (4-5%). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 124 o a more selective approach related to the countries of origin of potential students for moldovan universities. during the survey, the experts showed that the most acceptable target group for studying in moldova would be students from cis countries, syria, turkey, israel, india, nepal; o while determining a potential group of countries to attract students to moldova, it is advisable to consider the possibilities of more active involvement in the work of diplomatic missions. it is also necessary to monitor how the industry develops in these countries and what technologies are being introduced; what staffing needs they have and what educational policies are pursued by national governments, etc. to develop further systematic approaches to attract students from these countries, taking into account changing needs; o in view of the existing shortage of highly educated and highly skilled labor force in the country, consider the possibility of employment of specific categories of international students after they graduate from moldovan universities; o a significant source of income for the country can be the experience of using the intellectual potential of graduates of moldovan universities who returned to their homeland. development at the state and other levels of special programs will promote professional cooperation between universities and graduates, cooperation in advanced training, professional retraining, etc. o considering the prospects for youth mobility in the european and asian regions, it is advisable to create more favorable immigration conditions for a selected group of countries, provide for the possibility of employment in moldova for university graduates and the recognition of educational diplomas at the bilateral level, as an advantage in attracting students from selected countries. the experience of moldova's universities accumulated during the 2019-2022 (covid-19) pandemic allows expanding the range of educational services provided by moldovan universities (language courses, distance education, schooling, advanced training, additional education) and products (various programs, methods, educational cds, books, etc.). the modest position of moldova in the international market of educational services proves not so much the non-competitiveness of our higher education system as much as the lack of a formulated orientation of state policy towards promoting national educational services and optimizing efforts within the country, the lack of coordinated actions of ministries and departments. exporting educational services certainly brings economic benefits to both universities and the country. at the same time, entering the foreign market will tighten the requirements for the quality of the educational product, its professional conversion, the educational content and conditions for student learning. and consequently, it will improve the quality of the national education system. references abdulai, m., roosalu, t., & wagoner, b. 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(in russ.). https://www.econ.msu.ru/sys/raw.php?o=14958&p=attachment https://doi.org/10.1080/14675986.2020.1794231 https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2019.1700483 https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcab062 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78295-5_1 https://doi.org/10.32603/2412-8562-2016-0-5-77-86 https://doi.org/10.15826/umpa.2019.04.031 https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/eksport-obrazovatelnyh-uslug-belarusi-tendentsii-razvitiya-i-geografiya-potokov https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/eksport-obrazovatelnyh-uslug-belarusi-tendentsii-razvitiya-i-geografiya-potokov https://doi.org/10.38085/2308829x-2020-1-34-42 https://doi.org/10.38085/2308829x-2020-1-34-42 https://www.econ.msu.ru/sys/raw.php?o=14958&p=attachment how to reduce the risk economy and sociology 75 june no. 1/2021 assessment of uncertainty while selecting the operational strategy by the industrial enterprises in romania vasilica rusu1, phd student, free international university of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-07 jel classification: d18, d81, l60, l61, l65, l66, l74 udc: 005.53(498) abstract in conditions of uncertainty, an enterprise should have a rational basis for making decisions, which would enable the comparison of different alternatives and the choice of the most suitable action for achieving its objectives. some researchers consider that uncertainty is generated either by insufficient knowledge about the nature of phenomena and processes or by the lack of information about these phenomena and processes. the author considers that these interpretations need to be completed by clarifying the motives which cause uncertainty. the following types of environment can be distinguished which could be considered as sources of uncertainty: socio-economic; scientific and technical; political and juridical; the sales partners’ environment; the environment of the seller; the competitors’ environment; the consumers’ environment; the investments environment. the aim of the present paper is to determine the degree of influence (markedness) of each type of uncertainty upon the decisions made while selecting the operational strategy by the industrial enterprise. the research has been carried out at 29 enterprises from different industrial fields from romania: metallurgical industry, production of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations, construction materials industry, food-processing industry, manufacture of chemical substances and products. the management teams of those companies have taken part in the survey. the research is based on the data processing and analysis obtained from 256 questionnaires. the survey carried out within the industrial enterprises has shown that the uncertainty from the consumption environment has the biggest impact upon the operational decisions of the companies. the uncertainty from the internal, political, juridical, scientific and technical environment is being analyzed to a lesser extent. the lowest domain of uncertainty is characteristic for the chemical industry and the highest for the industry of manufacture of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations. key words: uncertainty, decision making, operational strategy, information, fuzzy variable în condiții de incertitudine, o întreprindere trebuie să aibă o bază rațională pentru luarea deciziilor, care să permită compararea diferitor alternative și alegerea celei mai potrivite acțiuni pentru atingerea obiectivelor sale. unii savanți consideră că incertitudinea este generată fie de cunoașterea insuficientă a naturii fenomenelor și proceselor, fie de lipsa de informații despre aceste fenomene și procese. autorul consideră ca aceste interpretări au nevoie de completare, concretizând cauzele care generează incertitudinea. se disting următoarele tipuri de medii, care pot fi considerate surse de incertitudine: socio-economic; științific și tehnic; politic și juridic; mediul partenerilor de vânzări; mediul vânzătorului; mediul concurenților; mediul consumatorilor; mediului investițional. scopul acestei lucrări este de a determina gradul de influență (evidență) al fiecărui tip de incertitudine asupra deciziilor luate la selectarea strategiei operaționale de către întreprindere industrială. cercetarea a fost realizată în 29 de întreprinderi din diferite ramuri industriale din românia: industria metalurgică, fabricarea produselor farmaceutice de bază și a preparatelor farmaceutice, industria materialelor de construcție, industria alimentară, fabricarea substanțelor și a produselor chimice. în sondaj au participat echipe managerile ale acestor companii. studiul se bazează pe procesarea și analiza datelor obținute din 256 de chestinare. sondajul realizat în cadrul întreprinderilor industriale a arătat că cel mai mare impact asupra deciziilor operaționale ale companiilor îl are incertitudinea generată în mediul de consum. într-o mai mică măsură, se analizează incertitudinea mediului intern, politic, juridic, științific și 1 id orcid 0000-0002-6534-5638 e-mail: officeaesms@yahoo.com theoretical and scientifical journal 76 june no. 1/2021 tehnic. cel mai mic domeniu de incertitudine este caracteristic industriei chimice și cel mai mare pentru industria de fabricarea produselor farmaceutice de bază și a preparatelor farmaceutice. cuvinte-cheie: incertitudine, luarea deciziilor, strategia operațională, informații, variabile fuzzy в условиях неопределенности у предприятия должна быть рациональная основа для принятия решений, позволяющая сравнивать различные альтернативы и выбирать наиболее подходящие действия для достижения своих целей. некоторые исследователи считают , что неопределенность порождается либо недостаточными знаниями о природе явлений и процессов, либо недостатком информации об этих явлениях и процессах. автор считает, что эти интерпретации необходимо дополнить выяснением мотивов, вызывающих неопределенность. можно выделить следующие типы окружающей среды, которые можно рассматривать как источники неопределенности: социально-экономическая; научнотехническая; политическая и юридическая среда, среда торговых партнеров; окружение продавца; окружение конкурентов; окружающая среда потребителей; инвестиционная среда. целью данной статьи является определение степени влияния (выраженности) каждого типа неопределенности на решения, принимаемые при выборе производственной стратегии промышленным предприятием. исследования проводились на 29 предприятиях из различных областей промышленности румынии: металлургической промышленности, производств о основных фармацевтических препаратов и фармацевтических препаратов, производство строительных материалов, пищевой промышленности, производство химических веществ и продуктов. в опросе приняли участие руководители этих компаний. исследование основано на обработке и анализе данных 256 анкет. опрос, проведенный на промышленных предприятиях, показал, что наибольшее влияние на операционные решения компаний оказывает неопределенность со стороны среды потребления. неопределенность внутренней, политической, юридической, научно-технической среды анализируется в меньшей степени. самая низкая область неопределенности характерна для химической промышленности, а самая высокая для отрасли производства основных фармацевтических препаратов и фармацевтических препаратов. ключевые слова: неопределенность, принятие решений, операционная стратегия, информация, нечеткая переменная introduction the changes that are taking place in the domestic and international environment related to the orientation of economy towards modernization and developing innovations, increase of uncertainty for the market processes, modification of the busin ess relations and interpenetration of economies, generate different problems in the management of operation activities of the industrial enterprises. thus, the industrial enterprises represent complex diffused systems, whose efficiency relies essentially on the quality of management of the operational system. one of the most important conditions for the prosperity of the romanian economy constitutes the high efficiency of the production processes which involves the rational utilization of resources, improvement of operational processes, strateg ic planning of the operational activity taking into account the factors of uncertainty, improvement of quality and product competitiveness. the technological and productive development is often overshadowed by the new scientific tendencies, but namely the operational activity constitutes the basis without which it is impossible to rationalize and build an efficient economic structure. modifications of the socio-economic life related to modernization and technocracy, whi ch have started in the second half of the xx century, have undoubtedly had an impact upon the production relations. managerial decisions are being taken in every economic system, including the industrial one. the new circumstances for making decisions whic h constantly appear, lead to the emergence of several alternatives for development and significantly complicate the development of the operational strategy. the uncertainty and risk could be regarded as interdisciplinary phenomena. at the same time, the uncertainty and risk, as a rule, are taken into consideration in the context of analysis of economy and sociology 77 june no. 1/2021 the decision making processes. in conditions of uncertainty and risk, an enterprise should have a rational basis for making decisions, which would enable comparing d ifferent alternatives and choosing the most suitable action in order to achieve its objectives. the impossibility of performing an accurate forecast of events characterizes most of the strategic problems of the enterprise, especially, according to some au thors, the uncertainty in the modern world becomes increasingly differentiated and its range becomes broader . the degree of the topic’s scientific research in scientific literature reflections regarding uncertainty persist among the economists from different eras. thus, j.m. keynes operates with the term „uncertainty”, describing the probability of how much a family would spend or save, or what interest would some investments bring i n fixed assets (keynes et al., 2009). he distinguishes in the uncertain knowledge what is veridical known and what is possible. it is important the fact that j.m. keynes highlighted the subjectivity of planning the probability of emergence for some events in the future, based on the patterns discovered in the past. in other words, planning the degree of uncertainty is difficult. according to the explanatory dictionary of the romanian language, the concept of „uncertainty” means a doubtful, unsure, unexplored thing [3]. according to linguists, the interest towards the phenomenon of uncertainty is due to the fact that thi s is one of the basic principles of human logic. the uncertainty in philosophical papers is regarded as a subje ctive and objective characteristic of a human being. from the subjective point of view, the uncertainty is an attribute not of a situation, but of a subject who takes decisions. however, from a more general perspective, the uncertainty is independent having an objective character in relation to the business, economy and society altogether. in the dictionary of economic terms, uncertainty is treate d as a lack of information, a total or partial absence of information, ignorance. in general, the economic inte rpretation of uncertainty does not contradict the linguistic and social language. at the same time, it would be necessary to have a thorough analysis of opinions of this phenomenon in business. george cristian maior pointed out that uncertainty in the soci o-economic field is a social form of movement of matter, which includes at the genetic level, forms of organization which are characterized by a high degree of variability and uncertainty. as we can see, he suggested that the tendency of growth for the instability is conditioned by the role of the subjective factor – the presence of crises or a transition period. nevertheless, it would be more corr ect to identify an objective representation of uncertainty. for instance, jonathan fields notices the fact tha t the degree of development is an inherent phenomenon of the internal movement in order to overcome the conflict (uncertainty) at a new order (fields, 2012, p.21). thus, it is obvious that the uncertainty is an objective attribu te existent in any functional socio-economic system. regarding the uncertainty in the socio -economic environment, we could add the opinion of the researcher zamfir cătălin, who mentions that the peculiar nature of the uncertainty of the social processes is determined by the subjective factor to the causal multilateral and multifactorial relations, the main statistics, the uncertainty of many social laws and regularities and consequently, in the social field the distinction between certainty and uncertainty is more conditioned and more relative than in the study of the natural phenomena (zamfir, 2005, p.32). moreover, in the analyzed definitions, the informational aspect prevails for the preconditions of uncertainty. this fact is confirmed by the interpretation of ms. doltu theodora, for whom the uncertainty represents a situation in which the information about the probable future events are completely or partially absent, a situation which cannot be evaluated (doltu, 2006, p.15). as mentioned above, the phenomenon of uncertainty has been extensively studied in the economic theory and represents a separate orientation for research. uncertainty is an important factor in the economic relations, which dictates the need to use different methods of prognosis and reduction of risk degree. risks systematization enables developing the necessary management tools. many of the classifications are excessively detailed, in our opinion, while it is extremely important to take into consideration only those risks which lead to the loss of the planned theoretical and scientifical journal 78 june no. 1/2021 revenues. it must be taken into account that the uncertainty increases exponentially, in proportion with the elimination of the assumed time event. consequently, the selection of an operational strategy related to a lengthy period of time requires a more thorough examination of the uncertainty factor. under the influence of the dynamic transformations which have taken place in the post-industrial economy, the uncertainty of the external environment has also modified, while the independent and discreet changes which are not interconnected began to transform into systemic ones. thus, in a continuous flow some economic constraints occur, respectively the reduction of costs, optimization of consumption, increase of the degree of complexity of products, new technologies, globalization, communication, increase of the volume of sales, opening of new emerging markets, absence of specialized work force, which have contributed so that the industrial environment would react and search for solutions in order to solve the above mentioned problems. every new transformation leads to the change of the remaining components of the economic relations. as khana r.b. remarked, the average duration of the life cycle of goods has decreased in comparison with the middle of the 20th century, from three to four decades down to three to five years. sources for the used data and methods the following methods were applied in our research: the analytical method, comparison, deduction, induction; experimental methods: questionnaires, discussion, observation, quantitative and qualitative interpretation of experimental results. the research was carried out in romania, bucharest region and constanta county in the december 2018 – april 2019 period. 29 manufacturing enterprises have been researched within the following industries: metallurgical industry: laromet sa, grantmetal sa, fine metal srl, steel international center srl, doosan imgb sa; production of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations: sc hofigal exportimport sa antibiotice sa tis farmaceutic sa, labormed alvogen sa, crida pharm srl, magistra c&c srl; construction materials industry: wienerberger sisteme de cărămizi srl, dalcor srl, lafarge ciment (românia) sa, omco srl, c & b glass solutions srl, soceram sa, ferco capital sa; food-processing industry: star foods e.m. srl, prod com marco t.16 srl, intersnack romania srl, elidor srl, plafar sa, tip top food industry srl; manufacture of chemical substances and products: chimtitan srl, interstar chim sa, a & g prodexim srl,vola color prod srl, santo raphael srl. 5-10 questionnaires had been distributed within each enterprise for their managerial team. 256 questionnaires had been processed overall. every manager had evaluated through the questionnaire the degree of influence of uncertainty, which appears in one of the following environments: social-economic, scientific-technical, political-juridical, distribution partners, the suppliers’ environment, the medium of competitors, consumers, internal and investment environment. the evaluation was carried out on a scale of 10 points: 1 point – a weak influence, 10 points – a strong influence. the results of our research and discussion in order to identify the main sources of uncertainty through the perspective of the business environment, we have analyzed the existent opinions regarding their nature. some researchers such as (mcconnell, 2016), "from its origins in newtonian physics, potential theory has developed into a major field of mathematical research. this book provides a comprehensive treatment of classical potential theory: it covers harmonic and subharmonic functions, maximum principles, polynomial expansions, green functions, potentials and capacity, the dirichlet problem and boundary integral representations. the first six chapters deal concretely with the basic theory, and include exercises. the final three chapters are more advanced and treat topological ideas specifically created for potential theory, such as the fine topology, the https://www.listafirme.ro/grantmetal-sa-456466/ https://www.listafirme.ro/fine-metal-srl-15462970/ https://www.listafirme.ro/steel-international-center-srl-17494103/ https://www.listafirme.ro/steel-international-center-srl-17494103/ https://www.listafirme.ro/doosan-imgb-sa-380430/ https://www.listafirme.ro/hipocrate-2000-srl-11702477/ https://www.listafirme.ro/farma-class-industry-srl-22663519/ https://www.listafirme.ro/tis-farmaceutic-sa-6638122/ https://www.listafirme.ro/hofigal-export-import-sa-384530/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/labormed-pharma https://www.listafirme.ro/hofigal-export-import-sa-384530/ https://www.listafirme.ro/crida-pharm-srl-9602646/ https://www.listafirme.ro/crida-pharm-srl-9602646/ https://www.paginiaurii.ro/companii/3,+bucure%c5%9eti/l4501150/c+%26+b+glass+solutions+srl/ https://www.listafirme.ro/star-foods-e.m.-srl-6614956/ https://www.listafirme.ro/prod-com-marco-t.16-srl-1582195/ https://www.listafirme.ro/intersnack-romania-srl-10334547/ https://www.listafirme.ro/intersnack-romania-srl-10334547/ https://www.listafirme.ro/elidor-srl-6712237/ https://www.listafirme.ro/plafar-sa-11945506/ https://www.listafirme.ro/tip-top-food-industry-srl-3900317/ https://www.listafirme.ro/chimtitan-srl-324996/ https://www.listafirme.ro/interstar-chim-sa-6614930/ https://www.listafirme.ro/prodexim-srl-14461233/ https://www.listafirme.ro/prodexim-srl-14461233/ https://www.listafirme.ro/vola-color-prod-srl-9826066/ https://www.listafirme.ro/prodexim-srl-14461233/ https://www.listafirme.ro/santo-raphael-srl-7678885/ economy and sociology 79 june no. 1/2021 martin boundary and minimal thinness. the presentation is largely self-contained and is accessible to graduate students, the only prerequisites being a reasonable grounding in analysis and several variables calculus, and a first course in measure theory. the book will prove an essential reference to all those with an interest in potential theory and its applications.", (armitage & gardiner, 2001) claim that the uncertainty is generated either by the insufficient knowledge of the nature of phenomena and processes, or by the lack of information about these phenomena and processes. the author believes that these interpretations need to be completed, by clarifying the causes which generate uncertainty. in this context, the following types of environment can be distinguished, that could be considered sources of uncertainty: socio-economic environment, in which the macro-factors of uncertainty are likely to manifest, dictating a certain development of the markets and regions, in which the enterprise is carrying out economic activities (macroeconomic indicators dynamic, legislative amendments, political transformations); scientific and technical environment, revolutionary modifications which could lead to significant operational changes at the level of the enterprise; political and juridical environment, which is the source of the legislative acts that dictate the political conditions for business management and regulations in force; environment of the distribution partners, conditioned by the activities of partners of the enterprise, the economic activity, financial situation, all of which have a direct impact upon their capacity to meet their obligations. environment of the supply partners, which reflects the future moves of the suppliers, including those that are expressed in the modification of the supply terms; competitive environment, including the change of the competitors’ degree of influence and behavior consumers’ environment, on which relies the state, dimension, dynamic and stability of the demand; internal environment, which could be considered as a source of conflict that leads to disturbances; the team work which increases the efficiency of the system in which the human and technical factors are closely intertwined and could produce some unforeseen results expressed in the level of product quality. the degree of awareness regarding the state of all these environments relies on the organization of work within the enterprise. a study of the industrial enterprises management was carried out within the framework of this research. this study was undertaken in order to determine the degree of influence (markedness) of each type of uncertainty upon the decisions made when an operational strategy is being selected. the general evaluation through the calculation of the average of the indicated points by the representatives of all the interviewed enterprises is presented in figure 1. figure 1. evaluation of the influence of different types of uncertainty upon the decision making process regarding the operational strategy for the industry source: elaborated by the author as it can be noticed, the biggest impact upon the operational decisions of an enterprise are caused by the uncertainties generated by the consumers’ environment. theoretical and scientifical journal 80 june no. 1/2021 at the same time, the uncertainty of the internal, political, juridical, scientific and technical environment are being analyzed to a lesser extent. in other words, it could be asserted that the entrepreneurs’ trust in the stability the organizational staff, managerial, technological stability and other components of their enterprise’s activities, could conceal certain „traps” of inefficiency. the generalized evaluation of the impact of different types of uncertainties upon the decision making process regarding the operational strategy for the metallurgical industry is shown in figure 2. figure 2. the impact of different types of uncertainties upon the decision making process regarding the operational strategy for the metallurgical industry source: elaborated by the author the data from figure 2 show us that for the metallurgical industry the biggest impact upon the decision making process related to the operational strategy belongs to the consumers and competitors’ environment. the generalized evaluation of the influence of different types of uncertainties upon the decision making process related to the operational strategy for the production of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations is shown in figure 3. here we can notice that the environment of consumers, competitional and the environment of the suppliers exercis e a major influence upon these industries. figure 3. the influence of different types of uncertainty upon the decision making process related to the operational strategy for the industry of the production of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations source: elaborated by the author 0 5 10 socioeconomic… scientific and technical… political and legal… the environme… supplier environment competitive environment consumer environment the internal environment investment environment average value on the… 0 2 4 6 8 10 socioeconomic… scientific and… political and legal… the environme… supplier environme… competitive environme… consumer environme… the internal environme… investment environme… average value for the industry of the… economy and sociology 81 june no. 1/2021 a general evaluation of the impact of different types of uncertainty upon the decision making process regarding the operational strategy for the construction materials industry is shown in figure 4. the industry of construction materials is influenced in its operational activity mostly by the factors of the socio-economic environment, by competitors and suppliers. figure 4. the impact of different types of uncertainty upon the decision making process regarding the operational strategy for the industry of construction materials source: elaborated by the author the generalized evaluation of the influence of different types of uncertainty upon the decision making process regarding the operational strategy for the food-processing industry is presented in figure 5. figure 5. the influence of different types of uncertainty upon the decision making process regarding the operational strategy for the food-processing industry source: elaborated by the author we can notice in figure 5 that the decision making process regarding the operational activity of the food-processing enterprises is influenced by the consumers’ environment, environment of the competitors, environment of the supply partners and socio-economic environment. a generalized evaluation of the impact of different types of uncertainty upon the decision making process regarding the operational strategy for the industry of chemical substances and products is provided in figure 6, where we could readily notice that for this industry the internal environment, environment of consumers, competitors, environment of suppliers and the one of distribution partners matters the most. 0 2 4 6 8 10 socioeconomic… scientific and… political and legal… the environme… supplier environment competitive environment consumer environment the internal environment investment environment 0 2 4 6 8 10 socioeconomic… scientific and… political and legal… the environme… supplier environme… competitive environme… consumer environme… the internal environme… investment environme… theoretical and scientifical journal 82 june no. 1/2021 figure 6. the impact of different types of uncertainty upon the decision making process regarding the operational strategy for the industry of chemical substances and products source: elaborated by the author it can be noticed that the smaller the surface of the figure in the diagram is the less enterprises from the analyzed industry (figures 1-6) feel the uncertainty in making the decisions regarding the operational strategy. it seems that the smallest field of uncertainty is characteristic for the industry of chemical substances and products and the largest for the industry of the production of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations. further on, we are going to proceed by introducing briefly the economic aspects of development for the pharmaceutical industry, in order to find the considerable sources of uncertainty, which occur in an environment of administrative decision making. subsequently, we are going to proceed to the description of uncertainty measurement method. as we know in romania, the industry of pharmaceuticals is one of the most profitable, holding a special place in the romanian economy. in the medical field there is a need of more flexibility as much regarding the medical programs, health ones, as more cooperation at the director plan carried out by the agents from tourism. at present, the pharmaceutical industry from romania is sufficiently developed to face the challenges [1]. in the 2000s, the majority of pharmaceutical factories have entered the circuit of multinationals, which have not shut them down, but on the contrary, competed in investing in technical refurbishment, development, export. however, due to the lack of a national drug strategy for the period of 2010-2014, romania has lost the production of 40% from the production volume of drugs, a national institute in the field was closed, a private producer was closed and not even a single portfolio investment was brought to romania. however, in 2015, the government adopted the national strategy for competitiveness 2015-2020, where the pharmaceutical industry represents a strategic direction for romania. despite the fact that at present there are different fiscal barriers, problems of price calculation, regulation, economic diplomacy, legislative desynchronization, which continue to affect the interest for development of the industry, according to the statistical data in 2016 in romania there were 158 officially registered manufacturers of drugs and pharmaceutical preparations and over 6700 wholesalers and retailers. at present, drugs worth about 350 million euro are being exported. therefore, the development of this industry should be systemic and it should be designated as a strategic economic domain of national interest (armitage & gardiner, 2001). the pharmaceutical industry from romania is a low-risk sector (as the economic theory suggests), playing a role in reducing the scale of the business cycle. this conclusion has been reached through dividing the economy of romania in three risk categories (high risk, average risk and low risk), depending on sensitivity of the activity of an economic sector during a business cycle. on the other hand, the small contribution of pharmaceutical industry to the total added value does not enable this leverage to generate major positive results. by creating conditions for a strong development of the pharmaceutical industry from romania would also support the shock-absorbers with counter-cyclical effect of the economy overall. in modern economy, at the same time with the increase of the information flow, there is an objective need for continuous growth of employees’ skills, an increase of the number of modernization projects, which would reduce the consumption of work force and materials, development of industrial marketing tools and increasing the operational efficiency. the pharmaceutical industry needs flexibility like no other industry, which would 0 2 4 6 8 socioeconomic… scientific and… political and legal… the environm… supplier environm… competitive environm… consumer environm… the internal environm… investment environm… average value in the chemicals and… economy and sociology 83 june no. 1/2021 make possible a rapid reconstruction. nowadays, 15% from the trade deficit of romania is caused by the pharmaceutical industry, which imports annually drugs in an amount worth more than 8 billion lei, but manages to export an amount worth less than 1 billion. and all this under the conditions in which the romanian pharmaceutical enterprises are paying duties and taxes to the romanian state as much as are paying all the other providers of services and goods who are activating in the health domain all taken together [71]. one of the main opportunities for increasing the flexibility consists in a more complete utilization of modern computerized technology. a positive evolution consists in attracting portfolio investments in the pharmaceutical industry from romania which would allow the concentration of financial resources to implement new developments taking into consideration market requirements in optimal terms. further on we will proceed to describe the model of uncertainty assessment. the main result of the evaluation is the value of damages that could occur within an enterprise in the case of exposure to diverse factors. at the same time, this interpretation, as we can perceive it, does not completely reflect the essence of the concept of “uncertainty”. as it has been mentioned above, the uncertainty is associated with a lack of information, but the uncertain events could not only have a negative result, but a positive one, as well. proceeding so, we are supposing that the probability of a positive result and a negative one could be different. there exist all the preconditions to divide the uncertainty into positive and negative. in order to attribute a situation in which the operational strategy is being developed to one or another variant of uncertainty, it is necessary to analyze all the possible consequences which could appear in the uncertainty environments and to study the possible results and the probability of their emergence. at the same time, as a result we understand in this case the degree of reaching the established objectives in the operational strategy. below we are going to present the stages of the evaluation methodology of uncertainty: 1. finding out the situations of uncertainty in the environments of activity of the enterprise, which appear during the implementation of the operational strategy. 2. defining a group of experts for the evaluation of consequences from the occurrence of each group of risk 3. evaluation of every situation of uncertainty from the point of view of consequences and the probability of their occurrence. assessing the risk degree of the operational strategy (the uncertainty of the environment for its implementation) in our opinion, could be achieved with the help of the expert system in the form of fuzzy variables,(mora-camino & nunes cosenza, 2018, hammer et al., 2016, p.87). this methodology takes into consideration the damages and benefits which could result from the action of one or another factor of uncertainty or risk. every expert should present his opinion regarding the consequences of the impact of a certain type of risk upon the enterprise in the form of a fuzzy number and more specifically they should indicate: 1) lower limit of the interval (mi), in which the expected result of the risk (uncertainty) of the operational activity would be localized; 2) upper limit of the interval (ni), in which the expected result of the risk of the operational activity would be localized; 3) the most probable limit of the interval (pi), in which the expected result of the risk of the operational activity would be localized; 4) upper most probable limit of the interval (qi), in which the expected result of the risk of the operational activity would be localized; 5) the degree of trust in their evaluation (hi). moreover, every opinion of the experts could be represented as a fuzzy number a; = (mi; ni; αi ;βi; hi ) where αi = pi mi, βi = ni qi; the total evaluation of the predictions made by the experts is determined according to the formula (mora-camino & nunes cosenza, 2018, p.27): a1 + a2 + a3 + a4 + a5 + a6 + a7 = ,.. theoretical and scientifical journal 84 june no. 1/2021 where , the result of the evaluation can be found out by calculating the arithmetic mean of experts’ judgement: , where k is the number of experts who are participating in the survey. 4. the calculation of the mean value of the result (r) for all the types of risk (uncertainty) is possible through the formula: where: hj – the degree of trust of the group of experts regarding the factor j of uncertainty; rj – the result of the evaluation of the group of experts regarding the factor j of uncertainty; t – is the number of experts. the result of the evaluation would enable determining the degree of effect / damages caused by the appearance of the risk (uncertainty), which could be a preliminary measure for determining the need for implementing an operational strategy. the approval of this method is proposed to be implemented at the pharmaceutical enterprise sc hofigal export-import s.a, because as the analysis has shown, managers from the respective industry feel a significant impact of uncertainty while making managerial decisions. for every of the environments above mentioned, the uncertainty factors have been defined with the help of a questionnaire by the consultants of the enterprise (table 1). table 1. defining the uncertainty factors no. environment negative uncertainty factors positive uncertainty factors 1 socio-economic environment 1.1. increase in prices (inflation) 1.2. reduction of the transport charges 2 scientific-technical environment 2.1. development of substitutable products 2.2. emergence of new energy saving technology 3 politico-juridical environment 3.1. increase of fiscal pressure 3.2. implementation of a new program for drugs production 4 environment of the business partners 4.1. infringing the rhythm (schedule) of selling 4.2. reduction of intermediary margins 5 environment of suppliers 5.1. inopportune delivery 5.2. reduction of cost of stock 6 environment of competitors 6.1. prices decrease and switching of a part of customers to the competitors 6.2. prices increase and customers switch from competitors to the targeted enterprise 7 consumers’ environment 7.1. decrease of customers’ revenues 7.2 receiving subsidies for development 8 internal environment 8.1. increase of the rate of wastage 8.2. increasing labor productivity, due to an improvement of team spirit 9 investments environment 9.1. decrease of the amount of portfolio investments in the pharmaceutical enterprises 9.2. increase of investment attractiveness of pharmaceutical enterprises source: elaborated by the author an example of calculation which uses the positive uncertainty factor no. 5.2 is presented below (tables 2,3, 4) https://www.listafirme.ro/hipocrate-2000-srl-11702477/ economy and sociology 85 june no. 1/2021 table 2. the results of surveying the group of experts regarding the uncertainty factor 5.2 reduction of cost of stock (positive uncertainty) expert number the interval in which the probable effect to the action of the factor no. 1, would be found out, thousands ron the most probable interval in which the effect caused by the action of factor no. 1, would be found out, thousands ron the degree of uncertainty m i ni pi qi hi 1 255 300 275 280 0,9 2 500 600 510 580 1 3 1200 1500 1300 1400 0,8 4 750 900 800 900 0,95 5 620 650 630 640 0,9 6 800 1000 850 950 0,85 7 700 900 750 850 0,85 8 300 500 350 400 0,9 9 450 650 500 600 0,85 10 500 800 650 700 0,95 source: elaborated by the author respectively, if a situation of negative uncertainty occurs (for example, damage caused by the stopping of the manufacturing process because of a delayed delivery of raw materials), then the results of the evaluation would be negative. table 3. representing the experts’ in the form of fuzzy variables expert number m i ni αi βi hi 1 255 300 20 20 0,9 2 500 600 10 20 1 3 1200 1500 100 100 0,8 4 750 900 50 0 0,95 5 620 650 10 10 0,9 6 800 1000 50 50 0,85 7 700 900 50 50 0,85 8 300 500 50 100 0,9 9 450 650 50 50 0,85 10 500 800 150 100 0,95 source: elaborated by the author the calculation for the factor no. 5.2. are made in table 4 below. table 4. the results of the calculation for the factor nr. 5.2. indicators m n h α β total evaluation 6024 7843 0,8 489 457 mean result 602 784 0,8 49 46 the most probable interval of the result 651 739 the mean size of the result according to the factor no.5.2., thousands ron 695 source: elaborated by the author after the presentation of all the processed data from the experts’ questionnaires, the total evaluation of uncertainty could be calculated for the chosen operational strategy: r= 4235,2-3752,4=482,8 mii ron we point out that in general, uncertainty within which a decision of operational strategy is being made, could be recognized as positive. this evaluation enables the comparison of several variants of operational strategy from the point of view of expressing uncertainty. theoretical and scientifical journal 86 june no. 1/2021 conclusions summarizing the performed evaluation, we could assert that the uncertainty is a flexible characteristic, while a more stable basis of the operational activity is the potential of manufacture of the enterprise. the research of the category of “uncertainty” in relation with the “risk” category has demonstrated the ambiguity of their interpretation and has revealed the necessity to distinguish between these categories. we have come to the conclusion that uncertainty is a measurable value through the expert method of evaluation and this one enables a favorable result, being mainly a characteristic of the external environment, an objective phenomenon and a condition for the existence of the business. while risk is a measurable value through empirical data, this implies an unfavorable result, being mainly a characteristic of the internal environment representing a subjective phenomenon dictated by somebody’s wish. uncertainty in the modern business seems to be an important factor in the economic relations, dictating the need to use different prognosis methods and reduction of the risk degree. the following types of environment which could be considered sources of uncertainty could be distinguished: socio-economic; scientific and technical; political and juridical, environment of sales partners, environment of the seller, environment of competitors, environment of consumers and internal environment. as a result of interviewing the management team, through the survey carried out within industrial enterprises, it has been noted that the biggest impact upon the operational decisions of the companies is produced by the uncertainty generated within the consumption environment. the uncertainty from the internal, political, juridical, scientific and technical environment is analyzed to a lesser extent. the lowest degree of uncertainty is characteristic for the chemical industry and the highest for the industry of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations. references 1. armitage, d. h., & gardiner, s. j. (2001). classical potential theory. springer london. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-0233-5 2. doltu, t. (2006). abordări în economia riscului şi incertitudini. editura economică. 3. fields, j. (2012). uncertainty: turning fear and doubt into fuel for brilliance. portfolio/penguin. 4. hammer, m., somers, k., & mckinsey and company. (2016). unlocking industrial resource productivity: five core beliefs to increase profits through energy, material, and water efficiency. mckinsey publishing. 5. keynes, j. m., krugman, p. r., haita, c. m., & nicolae, c. (2009). teoria generală a ocupării forţei de muncă, a dobânzii şi a banilor. publica. 6. mcconnell, p. (2016). strategic risk management. risk books. 7. mora-camino, f., & nunes cosenza, c. a. (2018). fuzzy dual numbers: theory and applications (1st ed. 2018). springer international publishing : imprint: springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65418-8 8. zamfir, c. (2005). incertitudinea: o perspectivă psihosociologică. editura economică. article history received 18 may 2020 accepted 19 january2021 economy and sociology 43 no. 1 / 2020 risk-based approach in the european union legislation to prevent money laundering and financing of terrorism victoria cоciug1, phd in economics, associate professor, academy of economic studies of moldova tеоdоr andruscеac2, phd student, academy of economic studies of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-04 jel classification: e42, g23, g28, g32, k42 udc: 339.19(4-672) ue abstract money laundering and terrorism financing are serious and internationally emerging issues that must be approached and confronted at european union level. the latest terrorist attacks and periodic banking scandals highlight the necessity for additional attention in this particular direction. in regard to the internal eu market, financial flows are integrated and trans-border by nature, thus funds can circulate rapidly, from one country to another, offering the possibility to perpetrators and terrorists to transfer money across member state avoiding detection by authorities. this specific situation generates the necessity to identify and understand the particular ml/tf risks generated by services and products offered within the eu economic and financial ecosystem. in order to ensure an efficient mechanism for identifying the ml/tf risks associated with the products and services provided on the territory of european union, the 4amld provides the obligation of the eu commission to perform once in two years the so-called european union money laundering and terrorist financing supranational risk assessment. since 2017 two supra-national risk assessments were carried out and the final results are used by member states to monitor the evolution of risks at union level and to implement the necessary recommendation for ensuring a proper minimization of threats and vulnerabilities at the national level. this paper aims to analyze, understand and compare the main outcomes of the two assessments, namely the identified risks and their links with vulnerable sectors, as well as the evolution or devolution of certain risks as a result of mitigation measures applied by eu member states. another task of this article is to provide additional recommendations in terms of mitigating measures and efforts, which must be taken into account by member states. keywords: risks, money laundering, financial services, threats and vulnerabilities, customer due diligence, beneficial owner. spălarea de bani și finanțarea terorismului sunt probleme serioase, care apar la nivel internațional, dar care trebuie abordate și confruntate inclusiv la nivelul uniunii europene. ultimele atacuri teroriste și scandaluri bancare periodice evidențiază necesitatea unei atenții suplimentare în această direcție. în ceea ce privește piața internă a ue, fluxurile financiare sunt integrate și transfrontaliere, prin urmare, fondurile pot circula rapid, dintr-o țară în alta, oferind posibilitatea autorilor și teroriștilor de a transfera bani în statele membre, evitând detectarea de către autorități. această situație specifică generează necesitatea identificării și înțelegerii riscurilor specifice ml/tf generate de serviciile și produsele oferite în cadrul ecosistemului financiar și economic al ue. pentru a asigura un mecanism eficient pentru identificarea riscurilor de ml/tf asociate cu produsele și serviciile furnizate pe teritoriul uniunii europene, 4amld prevede obligația comisiei ue de a efectua o dată în doi ani evaluările riscurilor supranaționale pentru spălare și finanțare a terorismului în conformitate cu criteriile ue. din 2017 au fost efectuate două evaluări de risc supra-național, iar rezultatele finale sunt utilizate de statele membre pentru a monitoriza evoluția riscurilor la nivelul uniunii și pentru a 1 victoria cоciug, v_cociug@mail.ru 2 tеоdоr andruscеac, andrusceac@gmail.com theoretical and scientifical journal 44 no. 1 / 2020 implementa recomandarea necesară pentru a asigura o minimizare adecvată a amenințărilor și a vulnerabilităților la nivel național. acest articol își propune să analizeze, să înțeleagă și să compare principalele rezultate ale celor două evaluări, respectiv riscurile identificate și legăturile acestora cu sectoarele vulnerabile, precum și evoluția sau devoluția anumitor riscuri ca urmare a măsurilor de atenuare aplicate de statele membre ale ue. o altă sarcină a acestui articol este de a oferi recomandări suplimentare în ceea ce privește măsurile și eforturile de atenuare, care trebuie să fie luate în considerare de către statele membre. cuvinte-cheie: riscuri, spălare a banilor, servicii financiare, amenințări și vulnerabilități de spălare a banilor, cunoaşterea clientului, beneficiarul final. отмывание денег и финансирование терроризма – это серьезные и возникающие на международном уровне проблемы, которые необходимо выявлять и решать на уровне европейского союза. последние террористические акты и периодические банковские скандалы подчеркивают необходимость дополнительного внимания в этом конкретном направлении. что касается внутреннего рынка ес, финансовые потоки являются интегрированными и трансграничными по своей природе, таким образом, финансовые потоки могут быстро циркулировать из одной страны в другую, предоставляя возможность преступникам и террористам переводить деньги через государство-член, избегая обнаружения властями. эта конкретная ситуация порождает необходимость выявления и понимания конкретных рисков од/фт, создаваемых услугами и продуктами, предлагаемыми в рамках экономической и финансовой экосистемы ес. для обеспечения эффективного механизма выявления рисков од/фт, связанных с продуктами и услугами, предоставляемыми на территории европейского союза, 4amld предусматривает обязательство комиссии ес раз в два года выполнять оценку наднационального риска отмывания денег и финансирования терроризма согласно установленным критериям. с 2017 года были проведены две наднациональные оценки рисков, и окончательные результаты используются государствами-членами для мониторинга эволюции рисков на уровне союза и выполнения необходимых рекомендаций для обеспечения надлежащей минимизации угроз и уязвимостей на национальном уровне. цель этой статьи проанализировать, понять и сравнить основные результаты двух оценок, а именно выявленные риски и их связи с уязвимыми секторами, а также эволюцию или передачу определенных рисков в результате мер по смягчению, применяемых государствами-членами ес. другая задача этой статьи состоит в том, чтобы предоставить дополнительные рекомендации в отношении смягчающих мер и усилий, которые должны быть приняты во внимание государствами-членами. ключевые слова: риски, отмывание денег, финансовые услуги, угрозы и уязвимость к отмыванию денег, надлежащая проверка клиентов, конечный бенефициар. introduction the money laundering is a significant concern and a growing problem for european union because of its enormous internal market and numerous services and products, which can be used by criminals to legalize illicit proceeds obtained from various illegal activities such as corruption, tax evasion, fraud, smuggling, etc. the european union is an important trade player with a considerable share in the worldwide trade, which means that euro is used by many participants and members of internal and external commercial and economic exchange, thus the european union is an important target for those who want to hide the origin of their dirty money and to use the rights and freedoms of the eu common market for this purpose. in addition, the money laundering risk is highlighted by the fact that its member states are using different legal and financial systems, which can be used by offenders to launder criminal funds or assets. thereby, the issue of identifying and assessing money laundering risks at the eu level was and still is a major concern, in this regard the mechanisms for fighting with this phenomenon being updated and adapted. it is to mentioned that the first reference to the question of the weak transaction reporting and the problem of money laundering by drug traffickers could be traced to european parliament resolution of october 1986 [9]. soon after, during the meetings of the ministers, the council proposed the member states to consider mutual economy and sociology 45 no. 1 / 2020 recognition, as well as enhanced cooperation on freezing and confiscation of the drug traffickers’ assets [8]. next year, the european community was engaged in the preliminary work on the united nations vienna convention, which, among other things, covered the criminalisation of money laundering derived from drug-related offences [4], even if the term of money laundering is not directly mentioned in the document. today, the money laundering risk is seen as a menace for union’s security, financial integrity and stability, as well as a tool for encouraging the individual perpetrators, organized crime and terrorists to transfer their grey assets into the legal economy. in order to facilitate the fight against money laundering, as well as of terrorism financing and to strengthen the established aml/cft ecosystem at the level of european union and member states, the european parliament and council approved on 20.05.2018 the directive no. 2015/849 on the prevention of the use of the financial system for the purposes of money laundering or terrorist financing. this specific document aims to enhance the union’s existent regime and introduces a new instrument tailored for assessing the money laundering and terrorist financing risk at the level of the european union. this instrument known as the supranational risk assessment (snra) has the role to identify and evaluate the exposure of various sectors, products and services to the money laundering and terrorist financing risks and to propose a list of mitigating measures that can be used to harmonize and synchronize the general effort of member states in addressing the above-mentioned risks. it is clear that the problems related with money laundering can be effectively approached by member states only through introducing concrete legal and institutional barriers specifically adapted to each aml/cft regime in part. however, there are several common shortcomings identified during the snra that can be used by member states as a starting point for improving their local aml/cft system. the purpose of this paper is to analyse the results of the existent snras and to propose additional recommendations for minimizing the effect of money laundering phenomena in member states and as a consequence to strengthen the european union aml/cft regime. the present article can be treated and viewed as a scientific opinion concerning the findings and outcomes of snras. literature review the history of important global regulations related to aml can be traced since 1988, together with the entry into force of the united nations convention against illicit traffic in narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances [shehu 2005:222]. although money laundering was not explicitly mentioned or defined in the convention, it was the basis of subsequent regulations to prevent money laundering [stessens 2000:133]. in 1989, the anti-money laundering rules were institutionalised by a group of 7 industrialized countries (g-7) by creating the financial action task force (fatf), with a specific mission to combat the money laundering threat. the next year fatf issues the 40 recommendations as a comprehensive framework for fulfilling its mandate, and later, in 2001, has issued 9 additional recommendations in order to address the growing concern for terrorism [bergstrom, helgesson & morth 2011:1044]. the fatf members in accordance with the recommendations had to adopt laws and regulations by specifying in details how the threat of money laundering in their respective jurisdictions shall be managed. these recommendations gave rise to the rules-based approach [ai, broome and yan 2010:394], in which the regulatory authorities established the principles and regulations that allow the identification and prevention of actions that involve money laundering. every member state was obliged to apply the necessary measures, which were later assessed during a mutual evaluation process. but this approach has not proven its effectiveness, because of being too prescriptive it didn’t allow the regulated entities to individualize their own actions according to the existing threats [ai, broome and yan, 2010:394]. subsequently, this model was found to be expensive to implement and easy to manipulate by using in the money laundering process the amounts even below the regulated threshold in order to avoid sending a suspicious transaction report [takats 2011:38]. the risk-based approach was introduced later in 2003 by fatf after reviewing the 40 recommendations [koker 2009:336]. the document which summed up the efforts of fatf, banking and securities sectors, includes the recognition of the existing risk (risks), by performing a risk assessment and developing the strategies for managing and mitigating the identified risks. theoretical and scientifical journal 46 no. 1 / 2020 it follows that aml risk is not clearly defined [koker 2009:336; ross, hannan 2007:110], and the risk-based approach raised more questions than it answered and revealed intrinsic and very real difficulties in managing the relationship between risk and aml [demetis and angell 2007:424]. while the adoption of risk-based approach could simply reflect the general move to such broader regulations of financial market, the fact that the risk itself is defined so differently mean that within the aml activities the obliged entities' inability to apply proper risk measurement techniques have led to an inability to distinguish what is really criminal and what is not, which leads to the generation of "a waste of unnecessary information about aml procedures" [pellegrina and masciandaro 2009:3]. clearly, if obliged entities report everything as suspicious, they don't actually report anything [takats 2011:39]. there is a modest number of researches in the field of efficiency of applying the risk-based model in the area of anti-money laundering, thus there are identified three approaches: the risk-based model as a phenomenon, game theory and agent theory. thus, some researchers examined the problems arising from the risk-based approach [demetis and angell 2007:424], others followed the application of game theory in identifying the risk of money laundering [araujo 2010; arnone, borlini 2010:68], and a stronger group proposed examining the problem through agent theory [masciandaro and filotto 2001:133; pellegrina and masciandaro 2009:931; takats 2011:39]. the problem that underlies the research is the possibility to apply the term of risk as a definition, which implies uncertainty about absolutely concrete phenomena, which can be classified more as crimes due to the certainty arising from the awareness of the final result of the actions carried out by the offenders in the money laundering process. however, in the aml literature and regulatory documents, the terms of risk and uncertainty are sometimes used as interchangeably notions [guerron-quintana 2012:10], despite the fact that they are defined differently, the distinction being in the degree of uncertainty of the consequences of a result associated with money laundering. the discussion at the level of theory regarding the risk-based approach of the moneylaundering process has been transposed into law since 2000 (fig. 1). figure 1. the evolution of the estimation concept of the money laundering phenomenon in the european legislation source: elaborated by the authors based on the harvey, j. (2008). just how effective is money laundering legislation. security journal, 21(3), 189-211. the problem related with the identification of an efficient mechanism for preventing and combating the money laundering phenomenon has always existed and the basis for finding a solution was to identify the best selection criteria for assessing the phenomenon. thereby, during the evolution of the legislation and practice in the field, the regulation aspect became more robust, by changing from the rule-based principle to the risk-based approach and finally to the enhanced riskbased approach. so, at the international level the financial action task force (fatf) [https://www.fatf-gafi.org/], which is the standard setter organization for combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism & proliferation promotes through recommendation no. 1 [fatf 2012-2019] that: „countries should identify, assess, and understand the money laundering and terrorist financing risks for the country, and should take action, including designating an authority or 1980-1990 •tick-box approach •rulesbased 2000s •risk assesment •risk-based 2010s •multidimension al risk assesment •enhanced riskbased 2017-today •trans-border risk assesment •enhanced riskbased https://www.fatf-gafi.org/ economy and sociology 47 no. 1 / 2020 mechanism to coordinate actions to assess risks, and apply resources, aimed at ensuring the risks are mitigated effectively. based on that assessment, countries should apply a risk-based approach (rba) to ensure that measures to prevent or mitigate money laundering and terrorist financing are commensurate with the risks identified...”. the european union supranational risk assessments (snras) use an established methodology in order to offer a multilateral analysis of the ml or tf risks associated with the activities and behavior of criminals and offenders. the main task is not to analyze a specific sector as a whole, but to highlight the situations when the products and/or services offered by this sector can be misused for ml or tf scopes. these snras are oriented on vulnerabilities identified at eu level, both in terms of legal framework and in terms of effective application. it does not prejudge the mitigating measures that some member states are applying or may decide to apply in response to their own national ml/tf risks. data sources and used methods we will analyze european legislation to identify how it treats the money laundering and what forms of risk it assumes would be included in this operation, to demonstrate that in the european union the ml and ft approach is risk based, but also extended to identify the types of risk per activity. in order to achieve the stated purpose, a series of scientific research methods were used, among which: the dialectical method, the method of analyzing the literature in the researched field, the comparative method, the induction and the deduction, the scientific abstraction, etc. the use of these methods allowed for a thorough and detailed analysis of european legislation in order to regulate the ml and ft, making some conclusions, but also recommendations on the application but also its improvement. the methodological basis of the article is represented by comparative research in approaching the analysis of the regulatory components. trans-border risk approach in eu legislation the 1snra [6, 2017] and 2snra [7, 2019] state that the actions of ml and tf are complex risks affecting the internal market and relating to trans-border activities are the first two reports performed by the european union (eu) commission at a supranational level. the reports are considering the ml and tf risks that the eu could meet and recommend an extensive mechanism to minimize them. both documents provide the most important risks for the internal market in a large number of sectors and the horizontal vulnerabilities, which can influence these sectors. in this respect, the reports include the mitigating actions that should be implemented at eu and national level in order to minimize these risks, as well as several recommendations for the different institutions implicated in processes of combating ml and tf. moreover – the risk-based approach expands with a new concept regarding the coverage area – transborder risk (figure 1). to minimize these trans-border processes, the eu anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (aml/cft) structure has introduced unified rules of controls and reporting obligations by the relevant entities and created a vigorous structure for eu financial intelligence units (fius) to analyze suspicious transactions and collaborate with each other. although considerable and durable evolution in this field was obtained, additional improvements and new provisions are necessary in order to strengthen the framework, which will ensure the activities in preventing and fighting ml and tf. the broad view and analysis of money laundering and terrorist financing risks is of paramount importance before any legal proposals or additional regulations will be approved and implemented. in this aspect, the risk assessment is very decisive for the internal market taking into consideration that in their essence the financial flows are integrated and trans-border. on the other hand, at the european union level, the article 6 of the 4amld [1, 2015] provides specific requirements for the eu commission to conduct an assessment of the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing affecting the internal market and relating to trans-border activities. as a result, the commission shall draw up a report identifying, analyzing and evaluating those risks at union level and shall update its report every two years, or more frequently if appropriate. the report referred to in above shall cover at least the following: a) the areas of the internal market that are at greatest risk; b) the risks associated with each relevant sector; c) the most widespread means used by criminals to launder illicit proceeds. theoretical and scientifical journal 48 no. 1 / 2020 in addition, the article 7 of the 4amld obliges the member states to take appropriate steps to identify, assess, understand and mitigate the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing affecting the member state, as well as any data protection concerns in that regard. also, it shall keep that risk assessment up to date and shall make use of the findings of the report referred to in article 6. after performing their own national risk assessment (nra), the member state shall use it to: a) improve its aml/cft regime, in particular by identifying any areas where obliged entities are to apply enhanced measures and, where appropriate, specifying the measures to be taken; b) identify, where appropriate, sectors or areas of lower or greater risk of money laundering and terrorist financing; c) assist it in the allocation and prioritization of resources to combat money laundering and terrorist financing; d) ensure that appropriate rules are drawn up for each sector or area, in accordance with the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing; e) make appropriate information available promptly to obliged entities to facilitate the carrying out of their own money laundering and terrorist financing risk assessments. moreover, the article 8 of the 4amld obliges the member states to ensure that the obliged entities take appropriate steps to identify and assess the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing, by taking into account risk factors including those relating to their customers, countries or geographic areas, products, services, transactions or delivery channels. those steps shall be proportionate to the nature and size of the obliged entities. in other words, the 4amld require the obliged entities under the aml/cft provisions to assess the money laundering and terrorist financing risk in their own field of activity. as a result, the 4amld establishes a three-level system for assessing the risks, threats and vulnerabilities of money laundering and terrorist financing. table 1 the eu three-layer system for assessing the money laundering and terrorist financing risk layers of eu ml/tf risk assessment responsible institution layer 1 at the level of the european union (supranational) eu commission layer 2 at the level of each eu member state (national) the designated authority layer 3 at the level of each obliged entity (sectorial) the obliged entities source: adapted by the author based on provisions of art. 6, 7 and 8 of the 4amld. the snras show that all identified sectors are exposed to some additional vulnerabilities: infiltration by criminals – criminals can become owners of an obliged entity or find obliged entities willing to assist them in their money laundering activities. forgery – modern technology is making it easier to forge documents and all sectors are struggling to put in place robust detection mechanisms; insufficient information-sharing between the public and the private sectors –the need for improved mechanisms for feedback from financial intelligence units to obliged entities remains; insufficient resources, risk-awareness and know-how to implement anti-money laundering/countering the financing of terrorism rules – while some obliged entities invest in sophisticated compliance tools, many have more limited awareness, tools and capacities in this field; and risks related with fintech – the use of online services is expected to increase further in the digital economy, boosting demand for online identification. the use and reliability of electronic identification is crucial in this respect. conclusions a) the eu internal market is still sensitive to money laundering and terrorist financing risks, namely because of a wide variety of products and services, different legal and financial systems of economy and sociology 49 no. 1 / 2020 member states and new technologies, which can ensure a high level of anonymity. these conditions are creating advantages for perpetrators to launder criminal proceeds. b) the financial system has a central role in fighting against money laundering. the timely identification of criminal behaviour and money laundering activities followed by the application of provisional measures can help to avoid the abuse of financial services and products. c) additional measures are necessary to be applied for strengthening the legal aml/cft framework of member states in order to create normative barriers and security layers to be able identify and reject the attempts of criminals to use the reporting entities for criminal purposes. d) supervision authorities and reporting entities are dealing with huge workloads on the part related with the application of aml/cft measures, in some particular cases the capacities of supervision authorities and reporting entities are disproportional with the amounts and volumes of work that they have to perform. e) cash and cash like tools are the main ml/tf risk generating instruments. f) together with cash and cash like tools, the internet-based businesses such as online casinos, crowd funding platforms, e-money and virtual asset online exchangers are posing substantial levels of ml/tf risks. recommendations a) in the author's opinion, the most strategic solution that can reduce the exposure of the eu internal market to ml/tf risks is a proper and qualitative transposition of the 4amld and 5amld into the local legislation of member states. it is to be mentioned that a strong aml/cft legal framework should cover a three-level regulation system: 1st level composed of laws (acts, bills) approved by central state bodies such as parliament, government or head of state, as the case may be, these regulations should include the general provisions for establishing the aml/cft regime at a country level. 2nd level composed of rules, procedures, instructions, etc. issued by law enforcement agencies and supervision authorities which regulate their competences related with specific sectors and/or reporting entities, functions and attributions, rights and obligations according to the limits set up by the 1 level. 3rd level composed of internal policies and programs of reporting entities and other thirdparty institutions which included specific provisions associated with their own field of activity and with the business they are carrying out. b) member states should ensure that the virtual assets (crypto assets) and natural/legal persons that are carrying out business activities with virtual assets are duly regulated in accordance with the 5amld. the most problematic part is to identify the authority, which will play the role of the supervisor, it is necessary to designate the most appropriate institution, so as to, guarantee that it has enough human, financial and technical resources and institutional capacities to regulate and supervise the activity of virtual asset businesses. in this regard, the member states can use not only the 5amld, but also the provisions of fatf recommendation no. 15 (new technologies) in order to identify the activities, which can be qualified as virtual asset businesses. it is to be mentioned, that a very important aspect is to avoid as much as possible the anonymity in transactions with virtual assets. thus, the member states shall make sure that the virtual asset businesses operating on their territories are applying proper customer due diligence measures. c) the financial supervision authorities should have sufficient resources to fully carry out their functions in relation with obliged entities and work amount, which results from their attributions. the human resources must be adjusted i.e. it is necessary to have a sufficient number of staff incharged with aml obligation. in addition, the education and training of staff should be a continuous priority in order to ensure the highest level of staff qualification. the aml/cft divisions should be supplied with special equipment and software which will offer the possibility to detect in due time the potential illegal activities, as well as to generate certain operational or strategic reports regarding the trends of using the financial services or products. a very important aspect is the proper remuneration of aml/cft personnel, this principle is necessary to be respected in order to avoid the unhealthy flow of staff and thus to preserve the institutional memory and experience gained during long periods of time. the supervision authorities should guarantee that they have the possibility to theoretical and scientifical journal 50 no. 1 / 2020 freeze or block the suspicious transactions and operations, even if the reporting entity didn’t apply the provisional measures for some reasons. the supervision authorities should reserve the right to apply the provisional measures on their own initiative in a rapid and efficient manner, until the transactions or operations are properly verified. d) in order to ensure a good application of aml rules it is necessary to pay a special attention to persons who are qualified as founders or shareholders of reporting entities, as well as to persons which are holding senior management positions. the supervision authorities should apply enough fit and proper procedures, especially in relation with big obliged entities. the quality of persons, which are holding or managing the obliged entity can be essential when it comes to minimizing the ml/tf risks. in this regard, the supervision and regulation authorities should make sure that the obliged entity’s structure of ownership and control is transparent and that the persons, which are exercising the control through different means have impeccable reputation. e) the personnel of supervision authorities and reporting entities who are exercising functions in aml/cft divisions should have legal guaranties and protection measures in order to avoid inappropriate influences because of the specificity of activity that they are performing, these measures should be organized in a manner that will minimize any pressing or improper influence over the employees. f) an increased attention should be paid on the proper and correct application of due diligence measures in regard not only to new, but also to existing customers. the most common constantly repeated mistake is the fact that the employees of obliged entities are not collecting enough information and documents and are ignoring the necessity to verify the obtained data by using other relevant and trustworthy sources of information, which is paramount for preventing any abuse of criminals. the training of front office personnel is very important for ensuring that the reporting entities have sufficient information, so as to, understand the risk profile of customers. the front officers are those who are interacting directly with clients and they are the first defence line and the quality of their training and education is directly proportional with the integrity of a reporting entity. g) from the aml perspective the exchange of information between the relevant institutions plays a central role for the protection of a certain jurisdiction from undue influence of criminal elements. the cooperation among authorities at the national level and at the level of member states should be organized both vertically and horizontally between fiu, supervision authorities, law enforcement agencies and obliged entities. the participants of the aml/cft chain should be encouraged to exchange information on a regular and spontaneous basis and should contain at least the typologies and ml trends, the list of proceeds generating criminal offences, the list of jurisdictions, products, services and customers profiles, which can posse potential ml/tf risks, as well as the black list of natural and legal persons which should be rejected because of high ml/tf threats. the exchange of information should be organized, so as to, ensure a high level of confidentiality and protection of personal data. h) it is a good practice to arrange the gradually decrease of cash in the circulation, as well as to shrink the dissemination and use of high denomination banknotes, which are the favourite of money launderers and criminal organizations. cash is the main instrument, which has the highest level of money laundering and terrorism financing risk because it offers the possibility to guarantee the anonymity, as well as to avoid to a certain degree the recording and tracing of transactions and operations, in this regard cash can be freely transported and exchanged. the member states, which are traditionally oriented on a cash-based structure of economy are facing higher ml/tf risk. with little effort, the cash obtained through proceeds generating offences can be easily introduced in the circulation of the legal economy. on the other hand, the economies which are primarily using other payment instruments as credit/debit 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wolf1: the economics of money laundering enforcement. in: journal of law, economics & organization. 2011, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 32-78. issn 1465-7341. article history received 09 december 2019 accepted 05 may 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irle.2014.04.006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511494567 economy and sociology 71 no. 1/ 2019 the current state and the perspectives of fruit-growing entrepreneurship in the northern development region of the republic of moldova liliana grinciuc1, university lector, state agrarian university of moldova currently, the role and importance of smes in the development of the national economy are characterized by such features as: the direct contribution to the formation of the gdp in every country is, as a rule, between 55-95%; new jobs creation; boosting competition; increasing exports; innovations and technologies fostering. the effectiveness of entrepreneurial activity in fruit growing is characterized by the application of new fruit production technologies, such as intensive and super intensive system. the purpose of the research was to analyze fruit growing entrepreneurship in the northern development region of the republic of moldova based on the data of „domultera” llc in floresti district. the objective of the research was to analyze fruit-growing entrepreneurship in the northern development region of the republic of moldova by describing the realities and perspectives in the field. it has been found out that applying superintensive and intensive technology to fruit growing is efficient. this fact can be explained by the reduction in production costs and the increase in global fruit production, sales revenue from the obtained production and gain profit, which have influenced the increased profitability level of up to 127.76% in 2017 and 86.15% in 2018 in the case of apple cultivation by applying the superintensive system. apples and plums cultivation by applying intensive technology also increases the economic efficiency when trees begin to bear fruits. keywords: entrepreneurship, efficiency, intensive technology, profitability, tree planting, seed fruits, stone fruits. în prezent, rolul şi importanţa imm-lor în dezvoltarea economiei naţionale se caracterizează prin unele trăsături, precum: contribuţia nemijlocită la formarea produsului intern brut din orice ţară, de regulă, între 55-95%; crearea noilor locuri de muncă; stimularea concurenţei; creşterea exporturilor; favorizarea inovaţiilor şi tehnologiilor. eficacitatea activităţii de antreprenoriat în pomicultură este caracterizată de aplicarea noilor tehnologii de producere a fructelor, precum este sitemul intensiv și super intensiv. scopul cercetării rezidă în analiza antreprenoriatului pomicol în regiunea de dezvoltare nord a republicii moldova în baza datelor srl „domultera” din raionul florești. s-a constatat că aplicarea tehnologiei super intensive cât și intensive în pomicultură poate asigura întreprinderilor un profit sporit de la 567 lei la o tonă, în anul 2016, până la 1835 lei la o tonă, în anul 2018. aceasta se explică prin reducerea costurilor de producere și sporirea producției globale de fructe, veniturilor din vânzări de la realizarea producției și a profitului obținut, care au influențat nivelul sporit al rentabilității de până la 127,76%, în anul 2017, și 86,15%, în anul 2018, în cazul cultivării merelor prin sistemul super intensiv. la cultivarea merelor și prunelor prin aplicarea tehnologiei intensive, la fel, se înregistrează o sporire a eficienței economice, care se demonstrează prin rata rentabilității sporite de 48,32% și profitul obținut în calcul la o tonă în mărime de 1225,39 lei, odată cu intrarea deplină în rod a plantațiilor. cuvinte-cheie: antreprenoriat, eficiență, tehnologie intensivă, rentabilitate, plantații pomicole, fructe sămânțoase, fructe sâmburoase. в настоящее время роль и значение мсп в развитии национальной экономики характеризуется некоторыми особенностями, такими как: прямой вклад в формирование валового внутреннего продукта в каждой стране от 55% до 95%; создание новых рабочих мест; стимулирование конкуренции, увеличение экспорта; содействие инновациям и технологиям. эффективность предпринимательской деятельности в выращивании фруктов характеризуется применением новых технологий производства фруктов, таких как интенсивная и интенсивная 1 © liliana grinciuc, lgrinciuc@gmail.com mailto:lgrinciuc@gmail.com theoretical and scientifical journal 72 no. 1 / 2019 система. цель исследования: анализ предпринимательской деятельности в области плодоводства в северном регионе республики молдова на основе данных „domultera” ooo, флорештского района. было установлено, что применение суперинтенсивного и интенсивного садоводства является эффективным. это объясняется за счет снижения себестоимости и увеличения объемов производства фруктов, доходов от реализации продукции и полученной прибыли, которые увеличили рентабельность до 127,76% в 2017 году и 86,15% в 2018, при выращивании яблок с применением суперинтенсивного метода. выращивание яблок и слив с применением интенсивных технологий, также повышает экономическую эффективность, при полном входе деревьев в плодоношении. ключевые слова: предпринимательство, эффективность, интенсивные технологии, рентабельность, плодоводство, семечковые и косточковые фрукты. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-05 jel classification: m1, m13, m21, o12, o13 udc: 338.43 + 005:634(478) introduction. under market economy conditions, the entrepreneurial activity raises a steadily increasing interest. the entrepreneurial activity has a strong impact on the world, because even if the entrepreneurs don’t invent new things, they are ultimately the ones that make things move and the world progress. they are the ones who introduce new technologies, promote new products, stimulate the discovery of new resources and mobilize capital. one of the entrepreneurial activities developed in the republic of moldova is the cultivation of fruit plantations, the branch that has been and will be one of the priority branches of agriculture with a considerable share in the country's economy and export. the global production of fruits and berries constituted about 47% of the total national production in 2017, the main growers being soroca, briceni, ocnita, donduseni, edinet. we can also say that global fruit production constitutes about 5% of the country's gdp. degree of scientific approach to the topic and its presentation in the scientific literature the problem of fruit-growing entrepreneurship and sustainable development is studied to a certain extent in the scientists' works in the republic of moldova. among the local authors, who have dedicated scientific papers to entrepreneurship, the following can be mentioned: litvin a. in her book „rural entrepreneurship”defines the notion of rural entrepreneurship and describes its peculiarities in rural areas. solcan a. in her book „small business management”defines the concept of small business and presents the functions, general principles and features of small business management. pesteanu a. in his article „the effect of manual apple trees pruning on fruit productivity and quality”presents the results of manual apple trees pruning and demonstrates its effect on fruit productivity. grinciuc l., litvin a. in the article „entrepreneurship – a major factor in the development of moldovan economy”, describe entrepreneurship as an important factor in the development of the moldovan economy, present the main criteria for classifying smes in the republic of moldova and analyze in dynamics some indicators that characterize the current state of smes. also grinciuc l., bujor t. in their article „the role of entrepreneurship in the development of the economy of the republic of moldova", state the role of entrepreneurship in the country's economy, describe the main organizational-legal forms of entrepreneurial activity in the republic of moldova and present the principles of its further development. the article is also of particular interest in the analysis of the current state of the fruit growing entrepreneurial activity in the northern development region by using the data of "domultera" llc agricultural enterprise. on the basis of these data we can demonstrate that the application of modern technologies for cultivation of multiannual plantations contributes to the increase in fruit productivity and directly to the increase in economic efficiency. results of own research and discussions focusing on the agricultural enterprises from the northern development region (ndr), it is necessary to make its brief characteristic: ndr includes balti municipality and 11 districts: briceni, edinet, donduseni, drochia, falesti, floresti, glodeni ,ocniţa, rascani, singerei, soroca, with an area of about 10,014 km2, which represents about 32.9% of the total area of the republic of moldova. the population is 1025 thousand people (28.6% of the country's population), including urban population 357 thousand people or about 34.8% of the total region. the region includes 571 localities, of which economy and sociology 73 no. 1/ 2019 20 cities and 551 localities, out of a total of 1679 localities in the republic of moldova. agriculture is an important sector in the region's economy [1; 6, p.106-111]. due to favorable climatic conditions, ndr has a significant agricultural potential in crops and yields production in particular. of the total ndr area, 70% is agricultural land. the region contributes with about 41% to total agricultural output of the country. the main agricultural products are cereals, technical crops and fruits. thanks to fertile soils and favorable climate, ndr also has significant advantages in cultivating fruits and vegetables. total production of fruits and berries in 2017 constituted 47% of the global production at the national level, the main cultivators being soroca, briceni, ocnita, donduseni, edinet [1; 6, p.106-111]. table 1 the surface of fruit-growing plantations, medium and global fruit harvest in the territorial regions of the republic of moldova indicators year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 northern region surface of plantations, thousands ha 25,24 24, 82 24, 04 21,46 22,65 of which fructifying plantations 18, 82 20, 16 18, 36 16,70 9,25 average harvest per 1 ha, t 5,81 7,59 5,89 6,26 9,07 global harvest, thousands tons 109,34 153,01 108,14 104,54 83,89 central region surface of plantations, thousands ha 13,45 13,65 13,10 12,98 13,46 of which fructifying plantations 9,72 9,95 9,86 9,69 9,82 average harvest per1 ha, t 6,45 5,93 5,02 7,21 7,39 global harvest, thousands tons 62,70 59,00 49,50 69,86 72,57 southern region surface of plantations, thousands ha 7,96 7,96 7,62 6,84 6,85 of which fructifying plantations 5,36 4,06 5,80 5,26 4,83 average harvest per 1 ha, t 5,45 5,03 5,08 8,13 7,73 global harvest, thousands tons 29,24 20,42 29,46 42,76 37,34 source: elaborated by the author on the basis [1; 6, p.108]. analyzing the data of table 1, we can say that generally the largest areas of orchards are grown in the central and northern regions. in 2017 of the total of 46.14 thousand hectares of orchards in the northern region, 22.65 thousand hectares are cultivated, out of which 9.25 thousand hectares are fructifying. it is obvious that both the total area and the fruitful surface area have been decreasing as compared to the previous years. this fact has influenced the volume of global fruit production which is decreasing compared to 2013-2016. in the central region the situation is different: the surfaces of fruit plantations are maintained at the same level, recording an increase of the average yield per hectare, which influences the increased global fruit harvest. the same situation is recorded in the southern region, where the surfaces are maintained at the same level, but the average harvest per hectare and the global harvest are increasing. the production of high value crops is one of the profitable businesses that offer the best potential for revenue growth. it is also a way to escape poverty for the rural population. the european countries have had modern agriculture for decades and enormous amounts of money have been invested in agricultural business. one of the agricultural wonders in moldova is „domultera” llc, which is located near domulgeni village, floresti district. it can be seen from a distance of several kilometers and consists of an apple orchard, which is 50 percent assured with anti-hail net, and the premises where fruits are sorted and stored. the owners invested several hundred thousand euros and it is a perfect example for those who plan to start a business in the field. the owners started the business in 2004 when they understood that only big companies would succeed in the field of acquisitions and exports. theoretical and scientifical journal 74 no. 1 / 2019 three years later, when they found out that the earnings did not exceed 10% of the investment; they decided to plant an apple orchard, a business that would ensure not only income, but also maximum satisfaction. so „domultera” llc was born, an enterprise specialized in the production of fruits and cereals. in the structure of gross profit in 2012 cereal crops had a share of 70% and fruits 30%. in the coming years, they plan to modernize their technologies and change the production structure in which the fruit will have a share of 61% and the cereals will have a share of 39%. the company leased 1160 hectares of agricultural land in the village of domulgeni, floresti district: of which 1060 hectares were planted with field crops and 100 hectares were fruit-growing plantations. the lease contracts were concluded for a period of 10 years, except for the orchards that were leased for a period of 25 years. the variety composition was selected by „domultera” llc according to the current trends in apple plantations in the eu countries. figure 1. top 5 varieties of apples after 2017 in the eu source: elaborated by the author on the basis [8]. the data presented in figure 1 show that consumers prefer red apple varieties. these preferences can be seen in the markets of the countries neighboring the republic of moldova, such as the russian federation or romania, but also in the middle east markets, where moldovan apples have been exported recently. so among the favorite red varieties are gala, jonagold, fuji kiku, idared, red delicious, etc. red delicious, granny smith, idired and golden delicious are still required. it is worth mentioning that the management of "domultera" llc pays great attention to its business and cultivates such high-potential varieties for exports gala delicious, fuji kiku, golden delicious, granny chalinger, idared, jonagold and renette simirenco. figure 2. apple varieties grown in „domultera”llc source: elaborated by the author on the basis of the data „domultera” llc. 28,00% 12,00% 8,00% 7,00% 7,00% 8,00% golden gala idared red delicious jonagold other 23 varieties 11,43% 11,43% 37,14% 25,71% 5,71% 8,57% fuji kiku granny chalinger golden delicious gala delicious jonagold simirenco economy and sociology 75 no. 1/ 2019 the planting material was procured from the certified producers in italy with 7 eur for each rootstock and the setting up of the orchard was carried out by sc „vitalitifruct" llc of moldova, which is a specialized company with many years of experience in agricultural services. the superintensive orchard was set up on the m-9 rootstock with a density of 3750 trees per hectare on support from concrete pillars. the concrete pillars are intended to provide support: 1) for trees in the row in order to form the fruit wall; 2) for the drip irrigation and fertilization system; 3) to install hail and sun protection accessories. the irrigation complex was built by the company during 2013 and consists of the water supply pipe from the river raut to the fields of the enterprise and of a geomembrane accumulation basin. the enterprise is able to market fruits for long period of time, including extra-season, using the storage capabilities of its business partner „ka-grup” llc, which has a modern refrigerator for fruit storage. „domultera”llc and „ka-grup” llc are related parties, mainly dealing with the marketing of apples. today, „domultera” llc owns only 70 hectares planted with orchards in the following composition: 40 hectares of apple orchards, of which 35 hectares are superintensive and 5 hectares are intensive; 15 hectares of cherries, of which: 5 hectares on the mahaleb rootstock with 670 trees per hectare, superintensive 6 hectares on the gizela 6 rootstock with 1667 trees per hectare and intensive 4 hectares with 1250 trees per hectare on maxima 14 rootstock; 15 hectares of stenley common plums with a total of 670 trees per hectare. the entire surface is irrigated, it has supporting system and 35 hectares of apple orchard are equipped with anti-hail net. taking into consideration the hard work and the efforts made by the owner of „domultera” llc, it is rational to determine the economic efficiency of the fruit production obtained by applying modern cultivation technologies. table 2 the economic efficiency of apples production cultivated super intensively in „domultera” llc during the period 2015-2018 indicators year year 2018 in % compared to 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 harvest per1 ha, t 43,71 44,40 46,90 71,43 163,4 160,9 152,3 direct labor consumption per t, man -hours 55,67 62,97 64,51 49,76 89,38 79,02 77,14 the cost of 1 t, lei 2490,00 2800,00 2356,00 2950,00 118,47 105,36 125,21 selling price of 1 t, lei 3567,00 3810,00 5446,00 5492,00 153,97 144,18 100,8 profit earned per 1 t, lei 1038,99 1010,00 3055,00 2542,00 2,44 times 2,51 times 83,2 rate of profitability, % 41,10 36,07 127,76 86,15 45,0 50,1 -41,6 source: elaborated by the author on the basis of the data „domultera” llc. the study of economic efficiency essentially involves a causal analysis of the factors that determine decision taking in the corresponding risk environment. thus, by analyzing the indicators of table 2, we can notice that the cultivation of apples by using the superintensive system on the area of 35 hectares records annually an increase of the harvest obtained per hectare. if in 2015 the harvest constituted 43.71 tons per hectare, then in the years 2016-2018 it increased to 71.43 tons, which in relative size increased respectively by 63.4%; 60.9% and 52.3% in 2018 compared to the previous years. it is good that the selling price of one tonne exceeds the cost of one tonne, which results in a profit per one tonne. the profit per 1 tonne increased in 2018 compared to 2015 and 2016, respectively by 2.44 times and 2.51 times, which is explained by the increase of the income obtained from the production. all these results influenced the rate of profitability that increased in 2018 compared to 2015 and 2016 by 45.0 p.p. and 50.1 p.p respectively, and compared with 2017 it decreased by 41.6 p.p, the theoretical and scientifical journal 76 no. 1 / 2019 cause being the increase in production costs and the non-marketing of total fruit production. this data demonstrates that in „domultera”llc it is efficient to produce apples using superintensive cultivation technology. table 3 the economic efficiency of apples production intensively cultivated in „domultera” llc during 2016-2018 indicators years year 2018 in % comparison to 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 harvest per 1 ha, t 17,40 8,20 27,40 157,47 3,3times direct labor consumption per t, man –hours 51,49 52,29 53,00 102,93 101,36 the cost of one t, lei 3000,00 3243,90 3165,00 105,50 97,57 selling price of 1 t, lei 3567,01 3809,02 5000 140,2 131,26 profit earned per1 t, lei 567,00 565,12 1835,00 3,23times 3,25times rate of profitability, % 18,90 17,42 52,96 34 35,5 source: elaborated by the author on the basis of the data „domultera” llc. another statistical situation is reflected in table 3 which presents the data on apples cultivation on the area of 5 hectares by using the intensive system during three years. this situation is explained by the fact that the intensively cultivated apple orchard has born fruits since 2016. it is well known that the achievemnt of an investment goal has the purpose to achieve a certain effect, but the effects have a complementary character, influencing each other, and the determination of efficiency is done by aggregating all the effects. therefore, in the process of growing apples by using the intensive system, which consists of the application of the dripping system only, the same good results are obtained. if a harvest of 17.4 tonnes per hectare was obtained in the first year of harvest, then in the third year there were 27.4 tonnes per hectare or 57.47% more than in 2016. the cost of one tonne of apples decreased by 2,41% in 2018 compared to 2017 due to the effect of the "economy of scale" principle, i.e. by increasing global apple production. the increase in the price of production in 2018 compared to the previous years was by 40.06% and 31.23%, respectively, it directly influenced the obtained profit increase per one tonne of apples. the profitability rate is increasing by 34 p.p in 2018 compared to 2016 and by 35.5 p.p compared to 2017, which is, in fact, the expected goal of all economic agents as a result of investment works for development, modernization and refurbishment of the production process. table 4 the economic efficiency of the production of plums grown in „domultera” llc during 2016-2018 indicators years year 2018 in % comparison to 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 harvest per 1 ha, t 2,42 6,22 14,96 6,2 times 2,4 times direct labor consumption per t, man -hours 55,67 51,49 48,66 87,4 94,50 the cost of one t, lei 2875,00 2057,00 2535,00 88,17 123,2 selling price of 1 t, lei 3338,80 3169,45 3761,13 112,65 118,67 profit earned per 1 t, lei 463,61 1111,86 1225,39 2,6 times 110,2 rate of profitability, % 16,12 54,04 48,32 32,2 -5,7 source: elaborated by the author on the basis of the data „domultera” llc. the level of economic efficiency is higher when the useful effect per unit of made effort is greater or when the consumed effort per unit of useful effect is lower. economy and sociology 77 no. 1/ 2019 thus, analyzing the indicators of the economic efficiency of plum production grown in „domultera” llc during the period 2016-2018, we’ve found out that the made effort generated the expected effects. in the dynamics of the analyzed period there was a considerable increase of the plum harvest per hectare, as well as the increase in labor productivity as a result of the promotion of new technologies through refurbishment and re-engineering works. although the rate of profitability in 2018 decreased by 5.7p.p. compared to 2017, the plum production is effective. so, through its activity and its results, „domultera”llc has proved to be an important actor of the agricultural business in the northern region of the republic with regard to the production and marketing of fruits. and the positive dynamics of market development and business relationships have prompted the company to modernize its fruit production sectors in order to maximize profit. the analysis of the situation in this domain allows us to recommend some directions, levers and tools that would support the sustainable development of the fruit-growing business:  local producers should orient towards the establishment of spring-frost-resistant seedlings of stone fruit trees, which enjoy an increased demand on the market and the weather conditions of the country in recent years;  domestic producers should start competing with the fruit growers from peru, south africa, etc. by using advanced technologies and competitive varieties, by developping post-harvest infrastructure and having the desire to be better;  organization of conferences and seminars with the participation of a number of foreign experts who have rich experience in advanced technologies, which would allow local fruit growers to learn more about new production and processing technologies, fruit preservation, to become familiar with the branch development strategy in the context of the eu integration and the evolution of business forecasts and strategies;  another way of the sustainable development of fruit growing business would be to join a target group of beneficiaries belonging to projects and programs, supporting people who wish to invest in the launching and/or developing of their own business. in this context, i would like to mention that the majority of fruit growers who cultivate intensive and superintensive orchards are pioneers in this field and must also be competitive on the local market. the local consumer must have a choice and should be treated with respect and the fruits grown in the orchard of moldova must promote the consumption of tasty and healthy apples as a source of vitamins and a symbol of national agriculture. conclusions under the conditions of market economy the role of entrepreneurial activity is very important in the republic of moldova. one of the priorities of the development of fruit-growing entrepreneurship in the republic of moldova is the cultivation of fruit plantations with the application of modern technologies, which ensure the competitiveness of domestic production on the foreign agricultural markets. „domultera”llc is a well-known agricultural enterprise both in the republic of moldova and abroad as it applies modern technologies for the production of seed fruits and stone fruits. from the company's primary information and the calculations we’ve made, we’ve found out that in „domultera” llc the cultivation of fruit plantations by applying super intensive and intensive technology is efficient. this fact is explained by the reduction in production costs and the increase in overall fruit production, sales revenue from production and profit, which have affected the increased profitability level of up to 127.76% in 2017 and 86.15% in 2018 in the case of apple cultivation by using the super intensive system. in the cultivation of apples and plums by applying intensive technology there is also an increase in economic efficiency when the trees bear fruits, which resulted in the increase of profitability rate from 16.12% in the first year of bearing to 54,04% in the second year of bearing. it can be stated with certainty that the practice of today's modern technologies in fruit growing creates conditions for sustainable development, which represents a long-term activity, i.e. ensuring the future in order to avoid insolvent problems in the business and in the life of the "actors" of the given domain. theoretical and scientifical journal 78 no. 1 / 2019 references 1. agriculture. national bureau of statistics. [accesat 10.11.2018]. disponibil: http://statistica.gov.md/category.php?l=ro&idc=129 2. entrepreneurship. national bureau of statistics. [accesat 25.02.2019]. disponibil: http://statistica.gov.md/category.php?l=ro&idc=368 3. catanoi, valentina, cotelnic, ala, bugaian, larisa. antreprenoriat: iniţierea afacerii. chişinău: "elena v.i.", 2010. 344 p. isbn 978-9975-9649-4-4. 4. bujor tatiana, grinciuc liliana. rolul antreprenoriatului în dezvoltarea economiei republicii moldova. in: politici economice și financiare pentru o dezvoltare competitivă: conferinţa ştiinţifică internaţională. chişinău: ulim, 2013, pp. 79-84. isbn978-9975-124-30-0. [accesat 10.11.2018]. disponibil: http://dspace.uasm.md/bitstream/handle/123456789/1942/p.7984_bujor.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y 5. societatea comercială "domulterra" srl. [accesat 10.11.2018]. disponibil: https://www.infodebit.md/?info_biz=1&idnp=1007607000623 6. grinčuk, liliana. analiz proizvodstva fructov v severnom regione respubliki moldova. v: aktual΄nye naučnye issledovaniâ v sovremennom mire. 2018, № 6, čast΄ 4, ss. 106-111. issn 2524-0986 7. grinciuc, liliana, litvin, aurelia. entrepreneurship a major factor in the development of the moldovan economy. in: management, economic engineering in agriculture and rural development. bucharest, 2013, vol. 13, pp. 175-181. issn 2284-7995. 8. diversitatea soiurilor de măr cel mai consumat fruct din lume. 2016, 19 septembrie. [accesat 10.11.2018]. disponibil: https://madein.md/news/drumul-fructelor/diversitatea-soiurilor-demar-cel-mai-consumat-fruct-din-lume 9. litvin, aurelia. antreprenoriatul rural. chişinău: uasm, 2003. 271 p. isbn 9975-946-70-4. 10. peşteanu, ananie. efectul răririi manuale a merelor asupra productivităţii şi calităţii fructelor. in: lucrări ştiinţifice. horticultură, viticultură, silvicultură şi protecţia plantelor. chişinău, 2008, vol. 16. pp. 83-86. isbn 978-9975-64-125-8. 11. solcan, angela. managementul micului business. chişinău: ed. asem, 2001. 301 p. isbn 997575-131-8. recommended for publication: 24.06.2019 http://statistica.gov.md/category.php?l=ro&idc=129 http://statistica.gov.md/category.php?l=ro&idc=368 http://dspace.uasm.md/bitstream/handle/123456789/1942/p.79-84_bujor.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y http://dspace.uasm.md/bitstream/handle/123456789/1942/p.79-84_bujor.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y https://www.infodebit.md/?info_biz=1&idnp=1007607000623 https://madein.md/news/drumul-fructelor/diversitatea-soiurilor-de-mar-cel-mai-consumat-fruct-din-lume https://madein.md/news/drumul-fructelor/diversitatea-soiurilor-de-mar-cel-mai-consumat-fruct-din-lume economy and sociology 31 no. 1 / 2020 special needs of entrepreneurs with disabilities in the condition of the republic of moldova elena aculai1, phd, associate professor, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova lilia saghin2, phd student, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-03 jel classification: i24, j71, l26, l38 udc: 334.72(478) abstract people with disabilities experience significant difficulties in the process of finding a job, which is caused not only by their health status, difficulty in getting education, but also by the reluctance of entrepreneurs to hire disabled people. in this situation, people with disabilities, who can provide selfemployment or create their own business, get an additional chance to have a constant source of income, develop themselves and, in general, integrate more successfully into social life. the aim of the research was to identify the basic needs of support of entrepreneurs with disabilities; for this purpose, in 2017, a survey of 75 individuals was conducted. the results of the survey implemented within the project of the national institute for economic research (nier) showed that for people with disabilities (unlike other groups of small entrepreneurs) is not enough to create a favorable business environment. no less important is the improvement of general living conditions of persons with disabilities, especially the improvement of their access to social infrastructure, education and the labor market. the main directions of the state support of people with disabilities aimed at the business development and selfemployment, are proposed to be following: improvement of legislation on supporting social entrepreneurship to increase the ability of persons with disabilities to be employed; improvement of access to education for people with disabilities through building and modernization of social infrastructure objects; use of direct economic and financial forms of support for this group of people, including through state target programs; support for the establishment of business associations uniting entrepreneurs with disabilities, etc. keywords: small and medium-sized enterprises, people with disabilities, entrepreneurs with disabilities, need for support of entrepreneurs, state support for entrepreneurs with disabilities. persoanele cu dizabilități întâmpină dificultăți semnificative în procesul de găsire a unui loc de muncă, ceea ce este cauzat nu doar de starea lor de sănătate și dificultățile întâmpinate în procesul educațional, dar și de reticența antreprenorilor de a angaja persoane cu dizabilități. în această situație, persoanele cu dizabilități, care se pot asigura cu muncă independentă sau își pot crea propria afacere, au șansa suplimentară de a avea o sursă constantă de venit, de a se realiza și, în general, de a se integra cu succes în viața socială. scopul cercetării a fost identificarea necesităților de bază de sprijin ale antreprenorilor cu dizabilități, în acest scop în a.2017 a fost realizat un sondaj care a cuprins 75 de persoane. rezultatele sondajului realizat în cadrul unui proiect implementat de institutul național de cercetări economice (ince) au arătat că pentru persoanele cu dizabilități (spre deosebire de alte grupuri de întreprinzători mici), crearea unui mediu de afaceri favorabil nu este suficientă. la fel de importantă este și îmbunătățirea condițiilor generale de viață, printre care prioritate a fost acordată îmbunătățirii accesului persoanelor cu dizabilități la infrastructura socială, educație și piața muncii. principalele direcții ale sprijinului de stat pentru persoanele cu dizabilități ce au drept scop dezvoltarea antreprenoriatului și a activității independente, includ: îmbunătățirea legislației și sprijinirea 1 © elena aculai, eaculai@yandex.com 2© lilia saghin, lilia.saghin@gmail.com mailto:eaculai@yandex.com theoretical and scientifical journal 32 no. 1 / 2020 antreprenoriatului social pentru creșterea capacității persoanelor cu dizabilități de a se angaja; îmbunătățirea accesului la educație pentru persoanele cu dizabilități, inclusiv prin construirea și modernizarea obiectelor de infrastructură socială; utilizarea unor forme economice și financiare directe de sprijin pentru acest grup de persoane, inclusiv prin programe vizate de stat; sprijin pentru formarea asociațiilor de afaceri care unesc antreprenorii cu dizabilități etc. cuvinte-cheie: întreprinderi mici și mijlocii, persoane cu dizabilități, antreprenori cu dizabilități, necesități de sprijin ale antreprenorilor, sprijin de stat pentru antreprenori cu dizabilități. лица с инвалидностью испытывают существенные сложности в процессе поиска работы, что обусловлено не только состоянием их здоровья, сложностью получения образования, но и нежеланием предпринимателей брать на работу инвалидов. в сложившейся ситуации люди с инвалидностью, которые могут обеспечить самозанятость или создать собственный бизнес, получают дополнительный шанс иметь постоянный источник дохода, реализовать себя и, в целом, более успешно интегрироваться в социальную жизнь. целью исследования являлось выявление основных потребностей предпринимателей с инвалидностью в поддержке, для чего в 2017г. был проведен опрос 75 респондентов. результаты опроса, реализованного в рамках проекта национального института экономических исследований (ниэи), продемонстрировали, что для лиц с инвалидностью (в отличие от других групп мелких предпринимателей), недостаточно создание благоприятной бизнес-среды. не менее важным является улучшение общих условий жизни, приоритетными среди которых оказалось улучшение доступам инвалидов к объектам социальной инфраструктуры, образованию и рынку труда. к основным направлениям государственной поддержки лиц с инвалидностью., направленным на развитие предпринимательства и самозанятости, предлагается отнести: совершенствование законодательства и поддержка социального предпринимательства для повышение возможности лиц с инвалидностью получить занятость; улучшение доступа лиц с инвалидностью к системе образования, в том числе путем строительства и модернизации объектов социальной инфраструктуры; использование прямых экономических и финансовых форм поддержки указанной группы лиц, в том числе посредством государственных целевых программ; поддержка формирования бизнес-ассоциаций, объединяющих предпринимателей с инвалидностью и др. ключевые слова: малые и средние предприятия, лица с инвалидностью, предприниматели с инвалидностью, потребности предпринимателей в поддержке, государственная поддержка предпринимателей с инвалидностью. introduction today, social and economic integration of people with disabilities represents one of the international priorities, especially after the adoption of the convention on the rights of persons with disabilities in 2006. the convention was signed by all eu member states and more than 100 other countries of the world, including the republic of moldova. the convention obliges the states that have ratified this document to ensure that persons with disabilities have the opportunity, on an equal basis with other citizens, to fully enjoy their rights, including access to education, employment, transport, infrastructure and buildings opened for public access, increase participation in political life, etc. in the economic developed countries, people with disabilities are involved in the labor field and work in all the types of activities, but, however in other countries they often remain inactive on the labor market. so, statistics of the european union testify that, for example, in austria only 22% of the identified population with disabilities are not active on the labor market, while in poland this indicator reaches 78%. this variation can be explained by several factors, including the extent to which persons with disabilities are included or excluded from education, discrimination of employers, demographic factors, etc. [oecd 2014]. in the republic of moldova, 180.6 thousand people (i.e. more than 5% of the total population of the country) are persons with disabilities, many of whom cannot find employment on the labor market; one of the reasons of this is that employers are not interested in employing them. in this economy and sociology 33 no. 1 / 2020 situation, development of their own business provides an additional opportunity for people with disabilities to ensure a decent standard of living and social integration. however, for the active involvement of persons with disabilities in the business, the support from the government is needed more than for other small entrepreneurs. the scientific hypothesis of the study is that it is not enough for people with disabilities, unlike for other groups of small entrepreneurs, to provide favorable conditions for business development: the improvement of their general living conditions is equally important as well. in order to identify the basic needs of entrepreneurs with disabilities, a survey has been carried out with the active participation of authors. the survey included not only entrepreneurs/selfemployed, but also individuals, who intend to set up their own businesses in the next 1-2 years. the survey was conducted by nier in the framework of the applied research project 15.817.06.05а “harmonizing the smes development policy in the republic of moldova with the principles of the “small business act” for europe”; stage of 2017: "improving the smes support policy in the republic of moldova: improving the opportunities for development of entrepreneurs from the socially vulnerable categories of the population", with the support of the association of entrepreneurs with disabilities of the republic of moldova [aculai 2017]. review of the scientific literature on the business activities of persons with disabilities in the last decades, the lives of people with disabilities are studied by institutions aimed at developing and promoting inclusive policies and eliminate stereotypes present in the society. to a large extent, the research deals with the involvement of disabled people in active work. labor activity is considered as necessary not just for having a decent living, but it also fulfills a number of basic human needs including those with a social purpose, status and professional activity, which help to support mental health and well-being. for people with disabilities, work is a matter of special importance because having a disability often means being socially isolated. the work represents an opportunity to reduce this isolation [un 2007]. to date, not many studies regarding the problems and needs of entrepreneurs with disabilities have been published. nevertheless, self-employment and entrepreneurship can be used as a potential means of professional rehabilitation, in order to achieve a faster and better integration into the labor market and, eventually, social inclusion [8]. data on the activities of persons with disabilities are limited. available information suggests that among this group, people are more often unemployed or inactive. at the same time, employed people are often hired on low qualification working places with low salaries [meager, higgins 2011]. according to one of the leading researchers of entrepreneurs with disabilities j. kitching, people with a disability face many specific obstacles in the process of initiating and sustaining entrepreneurship, partly because of poor education, low employment rates and concentration of employees with disabilities in low-paid activities [kitching 2014]. scientific papers include, among the barriers faced by people with disabilities, the following: limited access to the start-up capital and lack of knowledge and skills specific to the business; [foster 2010]; lack of adequate support [boylan, burchardt 2002] etc. however, in the modern specialized literature, disability is not regarded as an insurmountable obstacle in carrying out entrepreneurial activity or barrier to participation on the labor market. on the contrary, it is assumed that the advantages of entrepreneurship for people with disabilities can far outweigh any risk involved. being a disabled entrepreneur allows achieving professional and personal goals and could lead to a higher level of job satisfaction [győri1 et al. 2019]. often, entrepreneurial activity is a forced one for persons with disabilities, which affects its content. the reason for becoming an entrepreneur or self-employed person is mostly an incentive that results from a constraint or fear of something (e.g. unemployment or discrimination) that creates a completely different situation than if entrepreneurship is based on an independent decision [8]. however, in other cases, the motivation of people with disabilities to pursue independent activities results from the positive reasons, such as the desire for independence, passion for entrepreneurship and the innovative pursuit of opportunities [drakopoulou, keles 2015]. successful stories are significant enough to motivate people with disabilities, especially if they describe the own experiences of people who have achieved great results. in particular, professor theoretical and scientifical journal 34 no. 1 / 2020 stephen w. hawking believes that: “disability should not represent an obstacle to success. i have suffered virtually all my adult life from motor neuron disease. however, this has not prevented me from having a wonderful career in astrophysics and having a happy family life” [oms 2012]. support policies for persons with disabilities are implemented both nationally and internationally. thus, the world report on disability suggests measures for all stakeholders – governments, civil society organizations and organizations of persons with disabilities – to create enabling environments, develop recovery and support services, provide adequate social protection, create programs and inclusive policies and the implementation of new and existing standards and legislation for the benefit of people with disabilities. people with disabilities should be in the center of these concerns [oms 2012]. brief quantitative characteristics of persons with disabilities in the republic of moldova in the republic of moldova, according to statistical data of 2017, the total number of persons with disabilities amounted to 180.6 thousand people. however, access to the labor market is limited, as the participation rate of persons with disabilities constituted 19.7% compared to 49.2% for persons without disabilities. among the men with disabilities, the activity rate was 20.3%, and for women – 19.0%. in the urban area, the participation rate accounted for 16.8% and in the rural area – 21.5%. unemployment rate (as defined by the international labor office) of persons with disabilities was 2.9% compared to 4.1% among unemployed people without disabilities. the employment rate of persons with disabilities is lower compared to that of persons without disabilities: while the employment rate of persons without disabilities is 47.2%, among persons with disabilities this constitutes only 19.1%. in men, this indicator registered 19.7%, in women, respectively, 18.5%. the employment rate of people with disabilities in rural areas was higher (21.1%) compared to that in urban areas (16.0%). of the total number of employed persons with disabilities, the employees make up 46.8% (compared to 65.7% for persons without disabilities). the share of self-employed persons constitutes 44.0% (in agriculture 38.7% and in non-agricultural activities 5.3%), involved in the family activities as unpaid worker are integrated 8.6% and only 0.6% have the status of business owner. figure 1. structure of occupied persons with disabilities by professional status, 2017, % source: national bureau of statistics [nbs 2018]. according to the activity report of the national agency for employment in 2018, about 623 persons with disabilities were registered with unemployment status. out of the total number of unemployed people with disabilities, 260 people (42%) are women. according to the age categories of persons with disabilities with unemployed status, 22% persons are aged between 16-29 years, 37% – between 50-62 years and 41% – between 30-49 years. 0,6 8,6 5,3 38,7 46,8 business owner unpaid family worker self-employed worker in non-agricultural activities self-employed worker in agricultural activities https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=ro&idc=168&id=6191 economy and sociology 35 no. 1 / 2020 figure 2. age category of persons with disabilities registered with unemployed status, 2018, % source: nae activity report 2018 [nbs 2018]. qualifications of the personnel with disabilities recorded by nae are the following:  51% persons with primary/secondary / high school education;  25% persons with secondary-professional education;  24% persons with college/university studies; thus, it can be mentioned that the highest share is made up by people with average qualifications, mainly primary / secondary / high school studies, which makes access to the labor market difficult and makes them more susceptible to unskilled and poorly paid work. during 2018, 356 persons with disabilities benefited from work intermediation services, at the same time 58 people were integrated in vocational training courses, and 65 persons were involved in public works. 275 persons were successfully placed in the field of work, while 44% of the total number of persons with disabilities were registered with unemployed status. it is important to emphasize on the small number of persons in the records of the national agency for employment; if statistically the number of persons with disabilities is of the order of tens of thousands, then the number of the persons in the register as unemployed are of the order of hundreds. this gap between the persons in the nae records and the real one results in a low degree of employment and lack of training, as well as vocational reorientation courses. in the republic of moldova, the substantiation of the policies for inclusion of persons with disabilities on the labor market are regulated by the provisions of the law on the social inclusion of persons with disabilities. thus, art. 34 paragraph (4) assumes that ''employers, regardless of the form of legal organization, which according to the scheme of hiring staff have 20 or more employees, create or reserve jobs and employ persons with disabilities in a percentage of at least 5% of the total number of employees'' [legis 2012]. although the present law indicates that in case of failure to comply with these provisions during a financial year the employers are sanctioned according to the contraventional code, these sanctions are missing in the legislation and are not applied. gaps in the legislation allow employers to take advantage of and not implement the legislative provisions. in regard to entrepreneurial activity, it is not formalized in any way for people with disabilities, although at the legislative level, there are no restrictions or barriers that could slow down the process of developing the entrepreneurial activities carried out by people with disabilities. at the same time, the law on entrepreneurship and enterprises does not provide measures to support entrepreneurs with disabilities, because it favors stagnation of the current state of economic and social exclusion of persons with disabilities [legis 1992]. the business environment as well as the civil society show a reluctance in the process of inclusion of persons with disabilities. this low receptivity prevails because the employment of persons with disabilities is mainly performed in specialized companies that are in a very small number, and are located in a restricted area, satisfying the need for jobs, thus creating barriers for both entrepreneurs and people with special needs. therefore, the most pressing problem remains not the lack of means of integration in the economic activities, but the fact that the society and entrepreneurs have set certain unwritten limits, so very few people have overcome these barriers. the main factor hindering the process of integrating people with disabilities into economic activities, 22% 37% 41% 16-29 years 50-62 years 30-49 years https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=ro&idc=168&id=6191 theoretical and scientifical journal 36 no. 1 / 2020 at the same time as entrepreneurship, is the lack of statistical data on the number, structure of entrepreneurs and self-employed workers, which accentuates the inefficiency of some economic integration programs, because the lack of data on the number of beneficiaries and their needs cannot be estimated without their actual knowledge. special needs of entrepreneurs with disabilities in the conditions of the republic of moldova (based on survey results) methods and sources of information used. sample feature for a more detailed identification of the needs of persons with disabilities involved in entrepreneurial activities or intending to create their own business in the next 2 years, a survey was conducted as part of the nier project [7] with the support of the association of entrepreneurs with disabilities from the republic of moldova during may – september 2017. this study of entrepreneurs with disabilities is the first one in the republic of moldova, based on original primary information. the sample consisted of 75 persons. the main characteristics of the sample are as follows:  out of the total number of respondents, 49.3% of people have the entrepreneur status, respectively 50.7% of people are potential entrepreneurs.  respondents refer to age categories of 25-35 years (50.7%) and 36-50 years (49.3%).  respondents domiciled in the urban area make 67.6% of the total number of people surveyed, in the rural area 32.4%.  the main areas of activity chosen by entrepreneurs with disabilities are: services area 70.3% of enterprises, trade 16.2% of enterprises and agriculture 5.4% of enterprises. figure 3. areas of activity of entrepreneurs with disabilities source: outcomes of the survey [aculai 2017]. respondents are characterized by different degrees of disability. out of the total number of surveyed persons, 72% have the degree of severe disability (1st degree), 24% – pronounced degree of disability (group ii) and 4% – the average degree of disability (group iii). thus, we can conclude that the degree of severe or pronounced disability does not represent an invincible impediment in order to the conduct an entrepreneurial activity. figure 4. disability degree of the surveyed persons source: outcomes of the survey [aculai 2017]. 70,30% 16,20% 5,40% services trade agriculture 72% 24% 4% severe disability pronounced disability average disability economy and sociology 37 no. 1 / 2020 to carry out any activity, it is necessary to have a certain level of professional training. although success in business is not directly related to the availability of special education, but in the conditions of the republic moldova (as well as a number of other countries with emerging market economies), most entrepreneurs have higher or secondary specialized education. this characteristic fully applies to the surveyed group of people: 61.3% of the respondents have a higher level of education, 18.7% have professional and secondary education, 20.0% – have high school and gymnasium education. figure 5. professional training of questioned persons with disabilities source: outcomes of the survey [aculai 2017]. despite the fact that 80% of respondents have specialized education, many of them have a business profile not related to acquired knowledge. thus, only for 38.9% of the respondents the professional education corresponds to the profile of the held business, and for 61.1% of them the owned business does not correspond with the obtained studies. the success of a business depends not only on education, but also on previous experience. more than 2/3 of those surveyed have previous work experience, but this is mainly experience as an employee, not an entrepreneur. so, 2.7% of the respondents have experience as a business owner, 68.0% – have the employee status and 29.3% of the respondents have no previous work experience. most of the respondents had no business experience and management experience as well. in particular, of the total number of respondents, who at the time of completing the questionnaire were carrying out entrepreneurial activities, only 2.7% indicated that they previously had management experience, respectively 97.3% did not have such experience when they decided to set up their own business. needs of entrepreneurs with disabilities for state support in order to develop the entrepreneurial activity carried out by people with disabilities, according to the respondents, it is necessary to support their businesses by the state. in this purpose it is advisable to use various directions and measures for improving the business environment. respondents identified the following main paths, which would increase the chances of setting up and developing the business: use of direct methods of economic / financial state support; improve training opportunities for entrepreneurs and potential entrepreneurs; support for the establishment and development of business associations; improve the attitude of entrepreneurs with disabilities to business support organizations, including public authorities. as the survey showed, all of the above mentioned areas and measures have a very high priority for respondents. in particular, 100.0% of respondents indicated the importance of such measures as: development of a state target program, which will provide for preferential financing of the entrepreneurial activity of people with disabilities; 61,3 18,7 18,7 1,3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 higher education vocational and secondary specialized education high school education gymnasium education theoretical and scientifical journal 38 no. 1 / 2020 providing tax and payment facilities for this group of entrepreneurs; improving the possibilities of acquiring knowledge in the field of entrepreneurship; supporting the activity of business associations and improving the attitude of state officials, other business support organizations. the set of answers reflecting the need for state support with regard to improving the conditions for the development of business among persons with disabilities is presented in the table 1. table 1 the need for support from the state with regard to improving the conditions for the development of businesses among persons with disabilities* types of support % direct economic and financial forms of support development of a state target program, which provides for preferential financing of the entrepreneurial activity of persons with disabilities at the stage of starting the business 100,0 provision of tax and payment facilities for this group of entrepreneurs (for example, exemption from payment of insurance rates or facilities for payment of communal services for business) 100,0 improving learning opportunity improving the possibilities for acquiring knowledge in the field of entrepreneurship, taking into account the different degrees of work capacity and the limitations on types of activities 100,0 developing a mentoring system at the start-up stage 98,6 support for the establishment and development of business associations supporting the activity of business associations, which mainly meet or include entrepreneurs from persons with disabilities (including, involving their leaders in the activity of the advisory councils near the public administration bodies) 100,0 strengthening the partnership with other business associations, in order to jointly promote the interests of different groups of entrepreneurs 98,6 improving relations to entrepreneurs with disabilities improving the attitude of state officials, employees of commercial banks, other business support organizations towards entrepreneurs among people with disabilities 100,0 * respondents had the opportunity to give multiple answers. source: outcomes of the survey [aculai 2017]. at the same time, the results of the survey clearly demonstrated that in order to increase the possibilities of developing the businesses set up and managed by people with disabilities, it is not enough to create a general favorable business environment. it is necessary to improve the general living conditions for this group of entrepreneurs. in particular, respondents believe that they need diverse forms of support, associated primarily with the solution of medical and domestic problems, education, employment on the labor market, adaptation of social infrastructure and sociopsychological factors. the highest priority is given to such forms of support as:  design, construction and modernization of social infrastructure objects (100.0% of respondents);  improving the possibilities for obtaining general and professional studies (100%);  supporting social entrepreneurship oriented towards increasing the employment of people with disabilities and production of goods / services necessary for them (98.6);  changing the attitude of the society towards people with disabilities (95.9%), etc. it is significant that, according to respondents, government assistance in solving medical and domestic problems is slightly less significant than problems associated with access of persons with disabilities to social infrastructure, education and the labor market. economy and sociology 39 no. 1 / 2020 table 2 the need for state support, with reference to improving the general living conditions of people with disabilities* types of support % related to the adaptation of social infrastructure objects design, construction and modernization of social infrastructure objects (housing and social objects, etc.), in order to make them more accessible (existence of ramps, etc.) 100,0 related to receiving of education improving the possibilities for obtaining general and professional studies (home education and training, internet training possibilities, etc.) 100,0 related to the provision of employment on the labor market supporting social entrepreneurship oriented towards increasing the employment of people with disabilities and production of goods / services necessary for them 98,6 creation of job places and special conditions for employment 90,5 improving professional rehabilitation, as well as social integration 82,4 associated with socio-psychological factors changing society's attitude towards people with disabilities (more confidence, a welcoming environment, etc.) 95,9 promoting the positive image, disseminating success stories of entrepreneurs among people with disabilities 87,8 related to the solution of medical and domestic problems provision with articles and specialized means of rehabilitation, which allow people with disabilities to be involved in work and social activity (ocular prostheses, hearing aids, typhotechnical means, optical means, etc.). 91,9 improvement of the system of expertise and determination of the degree of invalidity 55,4 improving health care, rehabilitation and home treatment 16,2 improving the system of providing social care and personal assistance in solving problems at home 12,2 * respondents had the opportunity to give multiple answers source: outcomes of the survey [aculai 2017]. needs of entrepreneurs with disabilities for suport from business associations another form of support for entrepreneurs with disabilities may be business associations. survey results demonstrated that cooperation, exchange of practices and other forms of collaboration between entrepreneurs (without taking into account sales relations) are characteristic for the majority of respondents: out of the total number of respondents engaged in entrepreneurship, 70.3% cooperate with other entrepreneurs and 29.7% entrepreneurs do not have any cooperative relations. figure 6. cooperation relations of entrepreneurs with disabilities, % source: outcomes of the survey [aculai 2017]. 0 100 yes no 70,3 29,7 do you cooperate with other entrepreneurs? theoretical and scientifical journal 40 no. 1 / 2020 entrepreneurs with special needs are looking for different ways to become more efficient in the business environment through their own powers and initiatives, while through business associations is aimed at creating opportunities for collaboration for these members with other third parties. out of the surveyed entrepreneurs with disabilities, 45.9% people are members of business association, 37.8% – not members, and 16.3% people plan to join a business association starting next year. figure 7. membership of entrepreneurs with disabilities in business associations, % source: outcomes of the survey [aculai 2017]. almost all 100% of respondents who are members of business associations indicated that they benefited from within business associations with:  useful information;  possibility to participate in training courses;  support in establishing contacts with other companies;  possibility to get involved in the implementation of joint projects;  support in protection and promotion of their interests in public administration bodies. a significant share of members of business associations received consultancy services (94,1%), as well as psychological and emotional support (88,2%). figure 8. services offered by the business association* * respondents had the opportunity to give multiple answers source: outcomes of the survey [aculai 2017]. in order to improve the activity of business associations 100% of respondents consider that it is necessary to promote the successes of the associations more actively and the state should improve the financial possibilities of the associations. for 78.4% of respondents it is important to improve the quality of the services offered by the business associations. yes no i plan to be starting next year 45,9 37,8 16,3 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% offers psychological, emotional support helps in obtaining consulting services organizes training courses helps establish contacts with other companies involves us in carrying out joint projects promotes our interests in public administration… provides useful information 88% 94% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% economy and sociology 41 no. 1 / 2020 figure 9. ways to improve the activity of business associations* * respondents had the opportunity to give multiple answers source: outcomes of the survey [aculai 2017]. main conclusions the support policy of entrepreneurs from underprivileged groups and those underrepresented in business should take into account the specifics of their activities, special problems and needs for support. in the republic of moldova, the entrepreneurial activity of persons with disabilities has not been investigated yet. this study is the first one, based on primary information, i.e. the results of surveys. the analysis of the results made it possible to establish areas of the state support for people with disabilities. first of all, it is necessary to provide a differentiated entrepreneurship support system, which varies significantly with respect to certain groups of disadvantaged population and those underrepresented in business, including entrepreneurs with disabilities. one of the important tasks is to increase the opportunity of persons with disabilities to obtain employment on the labor market by improving legislation, monitoring its implementation and supporting social entrepreneurship. equally significant is improvement of the access of people with disabilities to the education system, including through construction and modernization of social infrastructure objects, to make them more convenient for people with special needs. other expected measures include use of direct economic and financial forms of support for this group of people, including through state targeted programs; improvement of the system of assistance to persons with disabilities in solving domestic and medical (including psychological) problems; support the establishment and consolidation of business associations that unite entrepreneurs with disabilities or are aimed, inter alia, at working with them. finally, it is advisable to actively promote in society the idea of real opportunities for people with disabilities to create their own business, as an alternative to finding a job on the labor market. this represents an additional chance to increase their material level and self-accomplishment. references 1. agenţia naţională pentru ocuparea forței de muncă. raport de activitate pentru anul 2018. chişinău, 2019 [citat 21 februarie 2020]. disponibil: http://anofm.md/files/elfinder/ raportul%20activit.%20anofm%202018%20final%20word%20terzi.docx 2. biroul naţional de statistică al republicii moldova. persoanele cu dizabilităţi în republica moldova în anul 2017 chişinău, 2018 [citat 10 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=ro&idc=168&id=6191 3. boylan, a., burchardt, t. barriers to self-employment for disabled people: report for the small business service. 2002, october. 98 p. [citat 23 ianuarie 2020]. disponibil: https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20090609014837/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file383 57.pdf 79,3% 78,4% 100,0% 100,0% 0,0% 20,0% 40,0% 60,0% 80,0% 100,0% 120,0% entrepreneurs should be more active it is important to improve the quality of services offered by business associations it is important to promote the successes of associations more actively the state should improve the financial possibilities of the associations http://anofm.md/files/elfinder/ https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=ro&idc=168&id=6191 theoretical and scientifical journal 42 no. 1 / 2020 4. drakopoulou dodd, s., keles, j. expanding the networks of disadvantaged entrepreneurs. a background paper for the oecd centre for entrepreneurship, smes and local development. 2015. 46 p. [citat 10 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/expanding%20the%20networks%20of%20disadvantaged%20entre preneurs.pdf 5. foster, s. promoting entrepreneurship among disabled people with visual impairment. rns. 2010, july. 51 p. [citat 18 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.heacademy.ac.uk/system/fil es/hwlln_promoting_entrepreneurship_visual_impairment.pdf&ved=2ahukewjn39somv7oahul3qqk hrv0ckcqfjafegqiahab&usg=aovvaw2_whwcnk46gg_8-zilmqeu&cshid=1587633512625 6. győri1, z., svastics, c., csillag, s. push and pull motivations of entrepreneurs with disabilities in hungary. zagreb, 2019 [citat 16 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/196093/1/ofel-2019-p351-366.pdf 7. aculai, elena. armonizarea politicii de dezvoltare a imm-urilor în republica moldova cu principiile ”small business act” pentru europa”. etapa a. 2017: perfecţionarea politicii de susţinere a imm-urilor în republica moldova: îmbunătăţirea posibilităţilor pentru dezvoltarea antreprenorilor din categoriile social-vulnerabile ale populaţiei. ince. chișinău, 2017. 78 p. 8. kitching, jonh. entrepreneurship and self-employment by people with disabilities. background paper for the oecd project on inclusive entrepreneurship. kingston university. kingston, 2014, september. 28 p. [citat 11 februarie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/john_kitching/publication/266137166_entrepreneurship_and_ self-employment_by_people_with_disabilities/links/544293c10cf2a76a3ccb020b/entrepreneurshipand-self-employment-by-people-with-disabilities.pdf 9. legea republicii moldova сu privire la antreprenoriat și întreprinderi: nr. 845 din 03.01.1992. in: monitorul parlamentului. 1994, nr. 2, art. 33 [citat 10 ianuarie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=17094&lang=ro 10. legea republicii moldova privind încluziunea socială a persoanelor cu dizabilități: nr. 60 din 30.03.2012. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2012, nr. 155-159, art. 508 [citat 04 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=83915&lang=ro 11. meager, n., higgins, t. disability and skills in a changing economy. briefing paper series. institute for employment studies. uk commission for employment and skills. 2011 [citat 10 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.employment-studies.co.uk/resource/disability-and-skills-changing-economy 12. oecd. policy brief on entrepreneurship for people with disabilities. entrepreneurial activities in europe. 2014. isbn 978-92-79-33519-8 [citat 12 februarie 2020]. disponibil: http://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/policy-brief-entrepreneurship-people-disabilities.pdf 13. organizația mondială a sănătății. raport mondial privind dizabilitatea. bucureşti, 2012. 319 p. isbn 978-973-0-13597-8 [citat 10 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/44575/9789730135978_rum.pdf;jsessionid=6eb 4de67b81f4e324f60db285bcefda4?sequence=20 14. united nations. convention on the rights of persons with disabilities [a/res/61/106]. 2007, january [citat 17 ianuarie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/resources/general-assembly/convention-on-therights-of-persons-with-disabilities-ares61106.html 15. vornholt, k., uitdewilligen, s., nijhuis, f. factors affecting the acceptance of people with disabilities at work: a literature review. in: journal of occupational rehabilitation. 2013, vol. 23, no. 1, march. issn 1573-3688 [citat 12 ianuarie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235522864_factors_affecting_the_acceptance_of_people_ with_disabilities_at_work_a_literature_review article history received 23 march2020 accepted 28 april 2020 https://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/expanding%20the%20networks%20of%20disadvantaged%20entrepreneurs.pdf https://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/expanding%20the%20networks%20of%20disadvantaged%20entrepreneurs.pdf https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/196093/1/ofel-2019-p351-366.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/profile/john_kitching/publication/266137166_entrepreneurship_and_self-employment_by_people_with_disabilities/links/544293c10cf2a76a3ccb020b/entrepreneurship-and-self-employment-by-people-with-disabilities.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/profile/john_kitching/publication/266137166_entrepreneurship_and_self-employment_by_people_with_disabilities/links/544293c10cf2a76a3ccb020b/entrepreneurship-and-self-employment-by-people-with-disabilities.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/profile/john_kitching/publication/266137166_entrepreneurship_and_self-employment_by_people_with_disabilities/links/544293c10cf2a76a3ccb020b/entrepreneurship-and-self-employment-by-people-with-disabilities.pdf https://www.employment-studies.co.uk/resource/disability-and-skills-changing-economy http://www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/policy-brief-entrepreneurship-people-disabilities.pdf economy and sociology 109 no. 1 / 2020 demographic transition at the regional level in czech lands cristina avram1, phd, charles university, department of demography and geodemography, czech republic doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-10 jel classification: j10, j13, j19, o15 udc: 314 (437.3) abstract this study presents the results of the development of demographic transition at the regional level in the czech lands. the analysis uses data from censuses and vital statistics. the period for analysis is 1869-1935, and the data was recalculated for the 2011 administrative division. in the study, we used the classical approach of analysis of the demographic processes. this article aims, first, to show the evolution of mortality and fertility levels at the regional level during the demographic transition, and second, to show that the demographic transition in the czech lands follows the patterns of other european countries, but with some particularities at the regional level. keywords: demographic transition, mortality, fertility, migration, czechia. în acest articol sunt prezentate rezultatele cercetării privind tranziția demografică la nivel regional în cehia. studiul se bazează pe datele de la recensămintele populației și statistica vitală. perioada de analiză este 1869-1935, iar datele sunt recalculate pentru organizarea adminsitrativteritorială din 2011. în studiul au fost utilizate abordări clasice de analiză a proceselor demografice. acest articol descrie evoluția mortalității și fertilității la nivel regional pe parcursul tranziției demografice și demonstrează că tranziția demografică în cehia urmează un traseu similar cu alte țări europene, dar are anumite particularități la nivel regional. cuvinte-cheie: tranziție demografică, mortalitate, fertilitate, migrație, cehia. в данном исследовании представлены результаты развития демографического перехода на региональном уровне в чешских землях. в анализе используются данные переписей и статистики естественного движения населения. период анализа составляет 1869 -1935. данные были пересчитаны для административного-территориальное деления 2011 года. в исследовании использовался классический подход анализа демографических процессов. в этой статье описана эволюция уровней смертности и рождаемости на региональном уровне во время демографического перехода, и показывает, что демографический переход в чехии повторяет модели других европейских стран, но имеет некоторые особенности на региональном уровне. ключевые слова: демографический переход, смертность, рождаемость, миграция, чехия. introduction the demographic transition became "the central preoccupation of modern demography" (demeny 1968), and is the shift from the slow growth of the population due to relatively high fertility and mortality to slow growth due to low fertility and mortality (coale 1984:531). moreove r, demographic transition theory applied to the developing countries shows impressive regularities (kirk 1996). in each example, mortality preceded fertility decline, resulting in accelerated population growth underestimated by some researchers. 1 © cristina avram, avramcr@gmail.com theoretical and scientifical journal 110 no. 1 / 2020 the duration of the demographic transition is different for each country or region, but the later it emerges, the faster the pace and dynamics of the process (pavlík 1977). in northern europe, the demographic transition lasted 75-100 years, in eastern europe – 20-25 years, and lasts even less for less developed countries that are still in the process (preston 1975). literature review and gap positioning according to some studies (pavlík, rychtaříková, and šubrtová 1986:568), the demographic transition in the czech lands started approximately in 1830. at the beginning of the 19 th century, the crude death rates were about 25 per thousand people, and life expectancy was about 33 years (pavlík 1964). in the 1900s, there was a dramatic decrease in mortality, life expectancy reaching approximately 40 years, and continuously increased until 56 years at the end of demographic transition (arltová, langhamrová and langhamrová 2013). in the first phase of demographic transition, the crude birth rate was 45 per thousand people. some research shows that the earliest fertility decline in the czech lands was registered in bohemia, specifically in prague and liberec region (pavlík, kučera and hampl 1994:34). and from these regions, it spread throughout the country (demeny 1968). because of data availability, this analysis began in 1869, with the first modern census conducted in austria-hungary, and it ended in 1937, with the last available comparable data before the wwii, but also this is the time when the demographic transition has finished in the czech lands. the interest in regional demographic transition appeared later (e.g., leasure 1963; coale 1986; fialová, pavlík and vereš 1990; fialová 1991; diebolt and perrin 2017), and it wasn't researched in-depth and its correlations with ageing, including for czechia. the main aim of this study is to contribute to understanding the determinants and evolution of demographic tran sition, specifically mortality and fertility decline, at the regional level in the czech lands. the research on the demographic transition at the regional level will explain the current demographic situation from its roots because the comprehensive knowledge of the past is the prerequisite for an adequate explanation of present phenomena. moreover, the analysis of the particularities of the development of demographic transition at the regional level can explain and predict the time and pace of ageing at the regional level. the following hypotheses are tested in this article: 1. demographic transition in the czech lands followed, in general, the pattern of other european countries. 2. demographic transition in the czech lands started in the northern indust rialized districts and prague, the capital, and then it diffused to the peripheries. 3. there is a close link in the fertility and mortality decline of the population located in the same geographical region. the theoretical framework of the study the research is based first of all on the demographic transition theory. the theory of demographic transition attempts to explain the changes in mortality, fertility, and age structure. one of the most common definitions of demographic transition is the transitio n from a regime of (moderately) high birth and death rates (at approximate balance) to very low levels of fertility and mortality (also at approximate balance) (knodel 1974; coale 1986). other standard definitions are: the demographic transition is the process of change from the primitive type of reproduction to the modern type of reproduction (visnevski 1976; pavlik 1980), the shift from the nonparity -related restriction of fertility to parity-related restriction of fertility (coale 1986) or the shift from unplanned parenthood to family planning. for a deeper understanding of the mortality and fertility decline, additional theories were applied. the epidemiological transition theory (omran 1998:102) explains the mortality decline by using four stages (specific for western transitions). in the first stage – "pestilence and famine", these being the leading causes of death, and it was specific for the pre-transition societies, and most deaths were occurring before the age of 40 (harper 2016). the second stage – "receding pandemics", mortality caused by infectious diseases were decreasing, especially child mortality, life expectancy reached 50 (harper 2016). in the third stage – "the age of degenerative, stress and manmade diseases" people survive to their 70s and over (harper 2016). the fourth stage – "age of economy and sociology 111 no. 1 / 2020 declining cardiovascular mortality, ageing etc.", the degenerative diseases are delayed, and more time is spent with chronic disease or disability. moreover, life expectancy at older ages is still increasing (harper 2016). for explaining the determinants of fertility decline, several theories were applied: the intergenerational wealth flows theory of fertility decline (caldwell 1976), the economic theory of fertility decline (schultz 1974; becker 1981), the diffusion of innovations theory (cleland and wilson 1987), the cultural and ideational theory (lesthaeghe 1983), theory of multi -phasic demographic response (davis 1963) and second demographic transition. theory of multi-phasic demographic response (davis 1963) explains that the out-migration has the role of relieving the pressure of population growth. as a result, the fertility decline in rural areas was delayed. the population from rural areas was the primary source of urban growth during demographic transition. data and methods each significant change of political and social situation brought reforms to the territorial administrative division. moreover, the changes in the administrative division had an impact on the development of the statistics; this is why it is important to follow its development, and also the reforms in administrative divisions are the main obstacle in having comparable time -series for a more extended period. in this study, historical data were recalculated to the current district leve l (2011 administrative division). the recalculation was necessary due to the four major administrative reforms were implemented on the territory of the czech republic between 1850 and nowadays. the data were recalculated by defining ratio of each political district /judicial district/district area (1869-2001) in actual districts (lau1) areas from 2011 (based o n arcčr 3.3 shapefiles). the ratios were calculated by using spatial overlay. calculated proportions of political districts were used to recalculate the rest of the data. czso (růžková and škrabal 2006) has recalculated only total number of population on the actual districts for the period 1869-2011. these data are available for download on czso public database website and they were downloaded at level of municipality parts ("části obce") for cross-checking (finding errors in data and calculations), for more precise political districts administrative borders reconstruction and recreation of more precise historical maps. the main data sources for the research are the following: 1. censuses (1869, 1880, 1890, 1900, 1910, 1921, 1930). 2. vital statistics (1868, 1872-1937). the data collected for the research are predominantly at the district level (1831 -1847 – regions, 1868-1913 – political districts, 1919-1937 – judicial districts). crude death rates, crude birth rates, and net migration rates are mapped for r ecalculated data at the district level (lau1). qgis3 open-source geographical information system software was used for 1869-1910 maps reconstruction, editing, analysis, and all spatial overlay operations. main results evolution of mortality the geographical distribution helps us to create a more complete and accurate explanation of the demographic changes. in this section, we present the evolution of crude death rates for the period 1869-1937 at the regional level. during the pre-transition period, the death and birth rates were high (or moderately high). in the first phase of demographic transition, death rates started to fall continuously until the end of transition when death rates stabilized around 10-15 per thousand people. for 1869, crude death rates were ranging between 22 and over 30 per thousand people (figure 1). most of the districts were in the range of 25 to 30 per thousand people, which is considered a pre-decline level of mortality (reher 2004). some of the districts had a high crude death rate of over 30 per thousand people, and several districts entered the mortality decline phase with a crude death rate under 25 per thousand people (reher 2004). theoretical and scientifical journal 112 no. 1 / 2020 figure 1. geographical distribution of crude death rates, by districts, czech lands, 1869 note: only the civil population in the total population was included. sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. figure 2, compared to figure 1, shows that mortality was still fluctuating. no significant changes occurred between 1869 and 1881. the high number of deaths is predominant in several districts from northern and central bohemia and south-western moravia. mortality remained high in prague at 36 per thousand people. the change between in mortality between 1869 and 1880 showed a variance of 4% on average. the highest increase accounted for 32% for kroměříž and zlín, and 27% for uherské hradiště. the highest decrease accounted for 13% for české budějovice, and 10% for brno-město and sokolov. figure 2. geographical distribution of crude death rates, by districts, czech lands, 1881 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. from 1881 to 1890, several districts entered the demographic transition, according to the definition of reher (2004), where the level of crude death rates dropped under 25 per thousand people (figure 3). the districts with the lowest mortality were mostly located in western bohemia and a few in central bohemia. the mortality was still high for prague and accounted between 30 and 35 per thousand people, but also in other cities, e.g., liberec, brno, kroměříž, jihlava. during this period, death rates were mostly decreasing, on average, by -1.5%. the highest decrease was observed in prague-východ by -29%, in prague by -17% and in kroměříž by -17%. the highest increase was in blansko, svitavy, sokolov, bruntál, and frýdek-místek, and accounted for about 10%. figure 3. geographical distribution of crude death rates, by districts, czech lands, 1890 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. economy and sociology 113 no. 1 / 2020 mortality was declining gradually until 1890. crude death rates changed radically from 1890 to 1900, as seen from the comparison of figure 3 and figure 4. in 1900 only five political districts had a crude death rate higher than 30 per thousand people. in the recalculated map, all districts had a crude death rate of under 30 per thousand people. mortality was quite heterogeneous during this period, ranging between 15 and over 30 per thousand people. the change in mortality accounted for -16% on average within a range from -38% to -2%. the crude death rate is decreasing in all the districts. the highest decrease was in teplice, prague-západ, and plzeň-město. the lowest decrease was in jeseník, semily and prague-východ. figure 4. geographical distribution of crude death rates, by districts, czech lands, 1900 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso, and historický gis. in sharp contrast with the 1900 situation, figure 5 shows that in 1910, mortality decreased substantially in almost all districts. the homogeneity among districts increased considerably. mortality levels were high in prague and brno, in the range of 25 and 30 per thousand people, although it decreased from 1900 levels (figure 5). some districts located in eastern moravia and silesia had higher mortality also – between 22 and 25 per thousand people. for this period, the most significant change in mortality across the districts was observed. the difference accounted on average for -19%. the highest decrease accounted for 35% in vsetín and pelhřimov, and the lowest drop accounted for 1% in rychnov nad kněžnou. figure. 5 geographical distribution of crude death rates, by districts, czech lands, 1910 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso, and historický gis. crude death rate continued to decrease after 1910. in 1921, in several districts in central bohemia and several districts from periphery areas, crude death rates reached 10-15 per thousand people (figure 6). the mortality in prague and other cities finally reached mortality levels similar to the national average – 15 to 22 per thousand people. the change between 1910 and 1921 accounted for about -16%. mortality continued to decline in this period. the highest decrease accounted for about 30% in prague and ostrava-město. theoretical and scientifical journal 114 no. 1 / 2020 figure 6. geographical distribution of crude death rates, by districts, czech lands, 1921 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. a substantial reduction in crude death rates occurred between 1921 and 1930. in most districts, the crude death rate ranged between 10 and 15 per thousand people (figure 7). the change in mortality accounted for -14% on average. the highest decrease accounted for about 37% in brnoměsto and about 28% in prague, sokolov, and frýdek-místek. figure 7. geographical distribution of crude death rates, by districts, czech lands, 1930 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso, and historický gis. mortality continues to decline, and at the end of demographic transition, the average crude death rate was between 10 and 15 per thousand people and quite homogeneous across districts. approximately ten judicial districts reached a crude death rate of 10 or less per thousand people. the mortality levels were stabilizing. the lowest value of the crude death rate was for ostrava-město with 9.7 per thousand people. the highest crude death rate was in prachatice and strakonice and accounted for 16 per thousand people. the districts with the highest crude death rate ranging between 15 and 22 were: příbram, benešov, strakonice, prachatice, tábor and jindřichův hradec. the change in mortality between 1930 and 1937 accounted for about -5%. the highest decrease accounted for about 16% in prague-západ, chomutov, hodonín, and zlín. the mortality continued to fall, but not as sharp as in the previous periods. figure 8. geographical distribution of crude death rates, by districts, czech lands, 1937 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso, and historický gis. economy and sociology 115 no. 1 / 2020 mortality transition varied across the districts. the mortality decline seems to have started earlier than in 1869 in some districts. the highest crude death rate was observed in several districts in northern bohemia, central bohemia and south-western moravia. the mortality decline started to "spread" to more districts in western and central bohemia between 1881 and 1890. between 1890 and 1900, mortality declined in all districts, but it remained heterogeneous, ranging from 15 to over 30 per thousand people. between 1900 and 1910, crude death rates decreased significantly, and for the first time, a homogeneity in mortality is observed. crude death rates range between 15 and 22 per thousand people, except few districts in eastern moravia and silesia (22-25 per thousand people) and prague and brno (25 and 30 per thousand people). after 1930 the crude death rate declines at a slower pace compared to the previous period. the decrease continues, and by the end of demographic transition, the districts reach a crude death rate ranging between 10 and 15 per thousand. only in a few it decreases under 10 per thousand people. during the demographic transition, the mortality in czech lands decreased by approximately 50% in all districts. evolution of fertility in this section, we present the evolution of the crude birth rate for the period 1869 to 1937. similarly to mortality analysis, the crude birth rates are shown on maps for eight years: 1881, 1890, 1900, 1910, 1921, 1930, and 1937. in the third stage of demographic transition (according to rowland 2003), fertility started to fall gradually. the natality varied across the districts in 1869 (figure 9). most of the crude birth rates show pre-transitional values. the crude birth rate was ranging from 30 to over 40 per thousand people. a crude birth rate of 40 per thousand people is considered a pre-transition level of fertility or natural fertility (henry 1961), this being considered moderately high fertility (coale 1986; diebolt and perrin 2017). moreover, a crude birth rate of 35 per thousand people is considered as the start of fertility decline by some researchers (chesnais 1992). figure 9. geographical distribution of the crude birth rates, by districts, czech lands, 1869 note: only the civil population in the total population is included. sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. although the situation in 1881 (figure 10) was similar to the one in 1869, we can see that northern bohemia, including the city of liberec, southern bohemia, silesia and northern moravia entered the phase of fertility decline with a crude birth rate under 35 per thousand people (diebolt and perrin 2017). figure 10. geographical distribution of crude birth rates, by districts, czech lands, 1881 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. theoretical and scientifical journal 116 no. 1 / 2020 the change between recalculated districts in 1869 and 1880 accounted for -2% on average. the most considerable change was in brno-město and accounted for -10%. in general, the crude birth rate decreased from 44 to 34 per thousand people (figure 10). after 1881, fertility continues to decline. just a few districts had a crude birth rate higher than 40 per thousand people: sokolov, most, teplice, ústí nad labem in the northern bohemia and frýdekmístek, ostrava-město, karviná in silesia (figure 11). we observe that the crude birth rate dropped under 35 per thousand people in most districts in the central bohemia, including prague, marking the beginning of the fertility decline phase. districts that are still in the pre-decline phase (35 to 40 per thousand) were mostly located in the west-north part of bohemia, south-west of moravia, and some districts in silesia. there was heterogeneity among districts at this stage. the overall change between 1881 and 1890 accounted for approximately -5%. the crude birth rate declined the most in praguevýchod by 35% and increased the most in frýdek-místek and karviná by almost 14%. figure 11. geographical distribution of crude birth rates, by districts, czech lands, 1890 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. after 1890 the crude birth rate continued to decline under 35 per thousand people in western and central bohemia. still, it seemed to stagnate in southern and eastern moravia and some districts in western moravia and even increasing in some districts (figure 12). the overall change between 1890 and 1900 accounted for approximately +0.3%. the highest decline in natality was recorded in prague-západ by 23%, and the highest increase was recorded for ostrava-město and prague-východ by 17%. figure 12. geographical distribution of the crude birth rates, by districts, czech lands, 1900 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. a substantial reduction in natality was observed between 1900 and 1910. in 10 years, most districts moved to a modern regime of controlled fertility with a crude birth rate of 30 per thousand people (chesnais 1992) (figure 13). despite the general trend, moravia and southern silesia had a high crude birth rate, between 30 and 35 per thousand people, some over 35 per thousand people. also, several districts in western (sokolov, domažlice, klatovy), northern (chomutov, most, teplice), and central bohemia (rakovník, kladno, beroun) recorded high crude birth rates between 30-35 or over 35 per thousand people. the average change between 1900 and 1910 accounted for approximately -17%. the decline was universal, except one district – rychnov nad kněžnou, where the crude birth rate increased by 3%. economy and sociology 117 no. 1 / 2020 figure 13. geographical distribution of the crude birth rates, by districts, czech lands, 1910 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. after 1910 fertility continues to decline. a convergence of the crude birth rate under 30 per thousand people was observed (figure 14). the modern regime of controlled fertility (crude birth rate 30 per thousand people) was spread almost all over the czech lands, with some exceptions at the peripheries, especially in moravia and silesia. prague and liberec had one of the lowest crude birth rates ranging between 10 and 20 per thousand people. the average change between 1910 and 1921 accounted for approximately -11%. the highest decrease of approximately 25% was recorded in prague, plzeň-město, náchod and pardubice. the highest increase of 20% was recorded in vsetín. figure 14. geographical distribution of the crude birth rates, by districts, czech lands, 1921 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. there was a sharp drop in fertility between the years 1921 and 1930 – fertility declined in about half of the districts (figure 15). the north-eastern bohemia, several districts in south and central bohemia, and several in moravia, including brno, recorded the lowest values for crude birth rate ranging between 10 and 20 per thousand people. moreover, a crude birth rate under 20 means that most of the women use parity limitation of fertility (diebolt and perrin 2017). the average change between 1921 and 1930 accounted for approximately -22%, one of the highest changes recorded during the demographic transition. the decline was universal. the sharpest drop accounted for 48% in brno-město, and the smallest drop accounted for 1% in prague-východ. figure 15. geographical distribution of the crude birth rates, by districts, czech lands, 1930 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. theoretical and scientifical journal 118 no. 1 / 2020 after 1930 the decline of fertility continued. crude birth rate was between 10 and 20 per thousand people in almost all the districts. there was a very high level of homogeneity among the districts (figure 16). the lowest crude birth rate of under 10 per thousand people was reached in two districts: liberec and jablonec nad nisou. districts with the highest crude birth rate (between 20 and 30 per thousand people) were located at the peripheries: prachatice, český krumlov in bohemia and vsetín, zlín, uherské hradiště in moravia. surprisingly, the average change between 1930 and 1937 accounts for approximately -26%, which was the highest change recorded during the demographic transition. the sharpest drop was about 43% in karviná and prague-západ, and the smallest decline was about 10% in písek and brno-město. figure 16. geographical distribution of the crude birth rates, by districts, czech lands, 1937 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. in the third phase of demographic transition, fertility started to decline gradually. it is essential to mention that at this stage, births were moderately high (coale 1986; diebolt and perrin 2017). the first phase of decline started probably earlier than 1869, but just in a few districts. the fertility decline began when the crude birth rate dropped under 35 per thousand people (chesnais 1992). in 1869, the crude birth rate was ranging from 35 to 40 and more per thousand people in most districts. in 1881 the situation did not change, but we can distinguish districts that entered the fertility decline stage, located in north bohemia, including the city of liberec, south bohemia, silesia, north moravia. after the 1890s, about half of the districts entered the fertility decline stage. districts were quite heterogeneous. a substantial reduction of 17% in crude birth rate is reached between 1900 and 1910. in only ten years, most districts moved to a modern regime of controlled fertility with a crude birth rate of 30 per thousand people or less. the last districts entering fertility decline were located in west-northern bohemia (partly), south-eastern moravia and silesia (partly). the second phase of fertility decline started after 1921. the change in crude birth rate accounted for -22%, one of the highest recorded levels until this point. crude birth rate values dropped from 20 to 30 per thousand people to 10 to 20 per thousand people. the sharpest drop in the crude birth rate during the demographic transition occurred between 1930 and 1937, and it accounted for 26%. almost all districts reached a crude birth rate between 10 and 20 per thousand people, which means that the parity limitation of fertility was spread all over the czech lands. migration during the demographic transition, the population was not influenced only by natural processes but also by migration, specifically internal migration. internal mobility was increasing due to the industrialization process. people tended to move from agricultural areas to the industrialized ones. in this section, we are analyzing the population movement in the czech lands in the period1869– 1910. we use estimations of the migration using the balance method. in 1869 the average net migration rate was -2 per thousand people. districts with high positive net migration rates were located in northern and central bohemia and eastern moravia. districts with high negative net migration rates were located in the western, southern, and central bohemia (around prague) and eastern and southern moravia. districts with the highest positive net migration rate (over 10 per thousand people) were prague, prague-západ, prague-východ, most, teplice and ústí nad labem. districts with the highest negative net migration rate (over 10 per thousand people) were rakovník, beroun, příbram, and havlíčkův brod (figure 17). economy and sociology 119 no. 1 / 2020 figure 17. geographical distribution of net migration rates, by districts, czech lands, 1869 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. during the period 1869–1881, the migration did not change significantly. in 1881 the average net migration rate was -3 per thousand people. the districts with high positive net migration rates were located in northern and central bohemia, and eastern moravia (figure 18), but a decrease was observed compared to 1869. the districts with high negative net migration rates were located in the western, southern, and central bohemia (around prague), and eastern and southern moravia. the districts with the highest positive net migration rate (over 10 per thousand people) are most, teplice, ústí nad labem, jablonec nad nisou, and brno-město. the districts with the highest negative net migration rate (over 10 per thousand people) were rakovník, havlíčkův brod, domažlice, klatovy, prachatice, strakonice, and písek. figure 18. geographical distribution of net migration rates, by districts, czech lands, 1881 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. during the period 1881-1890, the migration continued to be constant. in 1890, the average net migration rate accounted for -3 per thousand people. districts with high positive net migration rates were located in northern and central bohemia and eastern moravia (figure 19) and northern silesia, but their amount decreased compared to 1881. districts with high negative net migration rates were located in western and southern bohemia and eastern and southern moravia. the districts with the highest positive net migration rate (over 10 per thousand people) were most, teplice, ústí and labem and karviná. most, teplice, ústí nad labem were among the districts with the highest positive net migration rate since 1869. the districts with the highest negative net migration rate (over 10 per thousand people) were tachov, domažlice, klatovy, prachatice, strakonice, havlíčkův brod, brno-venkov, and bruntál. figure 19. geographical distribution of net migration rates, by districts, czech lands, 1890 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. theoretical and scientifical journal 120 no. 1 / 2020 during the period 1890-1900, we observe slight changes in the migration trends, although the average net migration rate remained constant at -3 per thousand people. the districts with a high positive net migration rate were mostly scattered in northern and central bohemia (figure 20). the districts with high negative net migration rate were located in western and southern bohemia and eastern and northern moravia and silesia. the districts with the highest positive net migration rate (over 10 per thousand people) were prague, prague-západ, and brno-město. the districts with the highest negative net migration rate (over 10 per thousand people) were klatovy, prachatice, strakonice, třebíč, žďár nad sázavou, opava, and karviná. cities continue to grow, including suburban areas (e.g., prague and brno). figure 20. geographical distribution of net migration rates, by districts, czech lands, 1900 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. figure 21 showed a slow change during 1900-1910. the average net migration rate was constant at -3 per thousand people. the districts with the highest positive migration rate also included frýdek-místek with a net migration rate of 17 per thousand people. klatovy, prachatice, strakonice were among the districts with the highest negative net migration rate since 1881. cities and suburbs continued to grow. figure 21. geographical distribution of net migration rates, by districts, czech lands, 1910 sources: author's calculations based on data from austrian statistics, czso and historický gis. from 1869 to 1910, migration slightly changed. the same areas consistently lost population or gained. for example, klatovy, prachatice, strakonice lost population due to migration during the period 1881-1910. most, teplice, ústí nad labem gained population during the period 1869 -1890. the districts with a high positive net migration rate were located mostly in northern and central bohemia. the districts with high negative net migration rates were located in the western, southern, and central bohemia (surroundings of prague) and moravia (except brno and surroundings of brno). an essential trend during this period was the rural-urban migration. cities always had positive net migration, and then the suburbs started to gain population due to migration from surrounding rural areas. economy and sociology 121 no. 1 / 2020 discussion and conclusions similar levels of mortality and fertility characterize the pre-transition phase or first stage of demographic transition (rowland 2003) in the czech lands to other european countries. both the crude death rates and crude birth rates were moderately high, as noted in prior studies (notestein 1977; coale 1986; diebolt and perrin 2017). according to some research (e.g., fialová, pavlík and vereš 1990), after 1820, crude birth rate declined due to an increase in the age at first marriage and the proportion of women never married, implying rather moderate-high levels of natality. from 1831-1847, the czech lands were experiencing natural fertility (henry 1961). cbr was fluctuating at around 40 per thousand people. the next stage of the demographic transition is characterized by the mortality decline (rowland 2003). the mortality varied during this period. it was generally higher in cities during industrialization. cities were called demographic sinks (dyson 2010). in rural areas, mortality was lower than the natality, this generating population growth, which through migration supported the urban growth (dyson 2010; bocquier and costa 2015). the third stage of demographic transition (rowland 2003) starts with a fertility decline. the fall in fertility did not occur evenly but with vast differences between districts. peripheral districts are usually more disconnected from the communication system and the capital, thus having a higher "behavioral" autonomy and are more prone to follow and respect cultural norms and traditions. this finding is supported by the example of france (diebolt and perrin 2017). the migration section shows clear trends of rural-urban migration. the growth of cities between 1869 and 1910 was significant. cities had constant population gain due to in-migration; this was a common phenomenon across all europe (davis 1955; davis 1963; knodel 1974). urban areas were the most attractive destinations, but also a part of the north of bohemia, which was more industrialized (migration from agrarian to industrialized districts) (brabencova 1989; barlow, dostal and hampl 1994). during the urbanization, the districts around the cities (suburbs) started to be a destination for in-migration too. nevertheless, at the national level, the net migration rate was preponderantly negative. a possible explanation is the emigration. although industrialization decreased the proportion of the population involved in agriculture from 2/3 to 1/3 (1850-1910), the standards of 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the changing relation between mortality and level of economic development. in: population studies. 1975, vol. 29 (2), pp. 231-248. issn 1477-4747. 33. reher, d.s. the demographic transition revisited as a global process. in: population, space and place. 2004, vol. 10 (1), pp. 19-41. issn 1544-8452. 34. růžková, j., škrabal, j. historický lexikon obcí české republiky 1869-2005, český statistický úřad, 2006. 35. rowland, d.t. demographic methods and concepts. new york: oxford university press, 2003. isbn 978-0198752639. 36. schultz, t.w. economics of the family; marriage, children, and human capital. chicago: university of chicago press, 1974. 593 p. 37. vishnevskii, a.g. demograficheskaia revoliutsiia [demographic revolution]. m.: statistika, 1976. 238 s. article history received 08 june 2020 accepted 17 june 2020 https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b833/1fd67628ec7364a045f39bc81305309f6f86.pdf?_ga=2.54424616.1074047851.1592307154-1892114140.1575623800 https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b833/1fd67628ec7364a045f39bc81305309f6f86.pdf?_ga=2.54424616.1074047851.1592307154-1892114140.1575623800 https://viaf.org/viaf/309488352/ economy and sociology 43 december no. 2/2020 strengthening the competences of future specialists in accordance with the development trends of crop production veronica prisacaru1, phd in economics, associate professor, state agrarian university of moldova tatiana sevciuc2, phd in economics, associate professor, state agrarian university of moldova grigore baltag3, phd in economics, associate professor, state agrarian university of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-04 jel classification: e24, i25, j24, j43, j45, o13 udc: 378.663(478) abstract under the current conditions, marked by a flexible and turbulent environment, balancing the demand and supply of the labor market is one of the basic factors for sustainable development. in this context, identifying the most effective tools to adapt the supply of professional education to the needs of the sectors is an important step towards achieving the goals of sustainable development. even if considerable efforts as well as relevant methodological tools are required, the process of harmonizing the requirements of the sectors and the content of professional education programs is particularly important and represents a decisive factor in achieving the sustainable development goals. the main purpose of this investigation was to highlight the essence and application aspects of the sectoral approach in anticipation of the necessary competences, as well as to operate with this tool in order to identify trends and problems related to crop production in the republic of moldova and to make changes necessary for improving the curricula. in order to achieve the proposed goal, the following methods were used: synthesis of methodological recommendations and good practices for applying the sectoral approach in anticipating competences; economic-statistical analysis; systematic approach; classification method; structural-logical method; generalization; deduction; drawing conclusions and reasoning, including using the objectives tree technique. the research resulted in explaining the essence and particularities of sectoral approach in terms of advantages and disadvantages, analysis of the agricultural production sector, especially crop production in the republic of moldova and formulating recommendations for improving agricultural study programs. keywords: agriculture, competences, crop production, education, labor market, sectoral approach. în condițiile actuale de dezvoltare a societății, în virtutea mediului extrem de flexibil și turbulent, echilibrarea cererii și ofertei pieței muncii reprezintă unul din factorii de bază ai dezvoltării durabile. în acest context, identificarea celor mai eficace instrumente de adaptare a ofertei educației profesionale la necesitățile sectoarelor reprezintă un pas important în direcția atingerii obiectivelor dezvoltării durabile. chiar dacă se impun eforturi considerabile și se solicită instrumente metodologice relevante, procesul de armonizare a cerințelor sectoarelor și conținutului programelor de educație profesională este deosebit de important și reprezintă un factor decisiv al atingerii obiectivelor dezvoltării durabile. scopul de bază al prezentei investigații a constat în elucidarea esenței și aspectelor aplicative ale abordării sectoriale în anticiparea competențelor necesare, precum și operarea cu acest instrument pentru a identifica tendințele și problemele aferente producției vegetale în republica moldova și a proiecta unele intervenții curriculare în raport cu deficiențele constatate. în vederea atingerii scopului propus, s-au utilizat metodele: sinteza recomandărilor metodologice și bunelor practici de aplicare a abordării sectoriale în anticiparea competențelor; analiza economico-statistică; abordarea sistemică; metoda clasificării; metoda structural 1 id orcid 0000-0002-2952-6888 e-mail: v.prisacaru@uasm.md 2 id orcid 0000-0001-7886-4165 e-mail: sevciuctatiana@mail.ru 3 id orcid 0000-0002-7220-8922 e-mail: g.baltag@uasm.md mailto:v.prisacaru@uasm.md theoretical and scientifical journal 44 december no. 2/2020 logică; generalizarea; deducția; formularea de concluzii și raționamente, inclusiv și prin utilizarea tehnicii arborelui obiectivelor. cercetarea s-a soldat cu explicarea esenței și particularităților de aplicare a metodelor și tehnicilor de abordare sectorială prin prisma avantajelor și dezavantajelor, analiza sectorului producției agricole și, distinct, a producției vegetale în republica moldova și formularea recomandărilor de perfecționare a programelor de studii cu profil agrar. cuvinte-cheie: agricultură, abordare sectorială, competențe, educație, producție vegetală, piața muncii. в современных условиях развития общества, в силу чрезвычайно гибкой и турбулентной среды, балансирование спроса и предложения на рынке труда является одним из основных факторов устойчивого развития. в этом контексте, выявление наиболее эффективных инструментов для адаптации системы профессионального образования к потребностям секторов является важным шагом на пути к достижению целей устойчивого развития. даже если требуются значительные усилия и соответствующие методологические инструменты, процесс согласования требований секторов и содержания программ профессионального образования особенно важен и является решающим фактором на пути достижения целей устойчивого развития. основная цель данного исследования заключается в изложении сути и практических аспектов секторального подхода в проектировании необходимых навыков, а также в применении данного инструмента для выявления тенденций и проблем в развитии растениеводства в республике молдова и разработки предложений по улучшению соответствующих учебных программ. для достижения поставленной цели, использовались следующие методы: синтез и обобщение методических рекомендаций и передовой практики применения секторального подхода; экономико-статистический анализ; системный подход; метод классификации; структурно-логический метод; дедукция, формулировка обоснований и выводов, в том числе с использованием техники дерева целей. в результате исследования были разъяснены сущность и особенности применения методов и приемов секторального подхода с точки зрения преимуществ и недостатков, проведен анализ сектора сельскохозяйственного производства и, в отдельности, растениеводства в республике молдова, а также сформулированы рекомендации по совершенствованию программ сельскохозяйственного профессионального образования. ключевые слова: навыки, образование, растениеводство, рынок труда, секторальный подход, сельское хозяйство. introduction the economic and social prosperity of each state, as a primary strategic objective, must be examined under the influence of all determinants. among them, while some are manifested by direct and quantifiable impact, others, including the quality of trained specialists, face the difficulty of measuring the exerted influences. however, this does not diminish the significance of the efforts needed to increase this impact, thus creating conditions to achieve the expected development goals. education, along with lifelong learning, are recognized today as pillars of the development process by virtue of their multiple effects: promoting the interests of individuals, businesses, and, implicitly, of the economy and society; reducing the vulnerability of young people on the labor market; eradicating poverty; increasing social inclusion; facilitating economic growth, etc. [ilo. skills for trade and economic diversification; ilo, 2004; ilo, 2010. a skilled workforce for strong, sustainable and balanced growth; savelieva and prodan, 2018]. the extent to which the professional education system, in its turn, will be able to generate the above-mentioned effects depends on its ability to meet current and future requirements of the sectors for which the final products are intended (qualified human resources). in other words, the best possible balance of the demand for skilled labor and the supply of the professional education system is required, which, in its turn, must meet the following requirements: relevance, efficient organization and management, high quality results [ilo, 2010. upskilling out of the downturn]. compliance with these requirements in relation to the educational offer is particularly important, taking into account that demand patterns are constantly and similarly changing in most countries under the influence of demographic factors, globalization, international competition and technological change [cedefop, 2016]. thus, it is obvious that the modernization of economy and sociology 45 december no. 2/2020 the educational system represents an urgent necessity in response to the challenges and needs of the economy diversification, the transition to new technological structures, the expansion of a competitive presence on the external markets, the increased competitiveness of the economically active population and business entities etc. [bogush, 2017:103]. literature review under the current conditions, because of the increasing flexibility of the business and living environment, governments are called upon to strengthen competence development systems to ensure that the skills and qualifications offered can bridge the gap that may exist between the world of education and training on the one hand, and the world of work on the other hand [ilo. skills for trade and economic diversification; ilo, 2010. a skilled workforce for strong, sustainable and balanced growth]. although it has been in use for decades, the term „competence” has gained a greater interest in educational research, psychology and neighboring disciplines in the last few years, generated by the globalization of the labor and educational markets. thus, since the end of the 1980s, the implementation of new governmental intervention strategies in the educational systems has led to a stronger focus on “outputs” and “outcomes” at all educational levels, from elementary, up to vocational and adult education. the outcomes – or the value added to them – are used as criteria of the educational systems` productivity, as well as of the related educational institutions` quality and of the learning achievement of the individuals [klieme et al., 2008:3]. among different existing definitions, those that are based on the functional approach may be highlighted and, consequently, may be used for a large-scale assessment of the educational outcome. so, according to weinert (1999) ”the concept of competence refers to an individually or interindividually available collection of prerequisites for successful action in meaningful task domains”. based on the previous approach, klieme and leutner came with a working definition, as „contextspecific cognitive dispositions that are acquired by learning and needed to successfully cope with certain situations or tasks in specific domains” [klieme et al., 2008:9]. in a more concise but consistent manner the competences are defined by the international labour organization as "knowledge, skills and knowhow applied and mastered in a specific context” [ilo, 2004]). it can be observed that the term „competence”, according to the definition given by the international labour organization, is larger, than the term “skills”, the latter representing a component of “competence”. however, many documents and studies refer to the term skills in a broader meaning: knowledge, abilities, know-how. the analysis of the demand and supply of competences in order to balance them can be done in various ways, among which the sectoral approach is getting a growing relevance. the term "sector" in this context is used to define specific areas of economic activity. the sectoral approach is defined as „one which aims at changing skills needs from the perspective of a particular sector” [wilson et al., 2016:13]. it operates from a forward-looking perspective, and provides information about sector’s development and growth opportunities based on its global competitive position and market development and, on this basis, anticipates the skills that the sector most needs to strengthen for future success [ilo, 2016]. currently, the sectoral approach in anticipating competences is a significant and effective tool, widely accepted and promoted internationally. the history of implementing the sectoral approach begins at the end of the last century. initially, some countries, such as france, began to make labor forecasts (a long time ago) based on indicative economic planning. most other countries have been making such forecasts since the 1970s and 1980s. later the sectoral studies became part of that process. for example, portuguese studies began in the late 1990s. the united kingdom imposes itself by setting up sector skills councils in 2002, and the eu began publishing the results of sectoral studies in 2008 (wilson et al., 2016:28). the experience of wide implementation of sectoral studies has been widely taken over by the countries in transition, having obtained remarkable results in the czech republic, romania, estonia [wilson et al., 2016:30-31]. the particularly high significance of sectoral studies is evidenced by their persistence in most attempts to predict the future of the labor market [ilo skills for trade and economic diversification; gregg and nayef, 2015; breuer, 2012], representing a dimension of macroeconomic models for skill anticipation. for most countries, the sector is in the centre of systems providing education and training, especially vocational education. germany, for example, has managed to establish strong links between theoretical and scientifical journal 46 december no. 2/2020 employers and providers of education and training [wilson et al., 2016:28]. the sectoral approach to competence forecasting is based on a series of tools and techniques, which are set out in figure 1. figure 1. tools and techniques used in competence anticipation source: developed by the authors based on [wilson et al., 2016: 26-27]. surveys of opinion directed at employers or other groups advantages: direct ‘user’ or ‘customer’ involvement; disadvantages: may be subjective and inconsistent; may focus too much on the marginal and ephemeral; the respondents may not necessarily be aware of future skills needs. interviews and related techniques advantages: may be able to address problems and concerns more subtly and more deeply; disadvantages: may be unrepresentative. workshops advantages: useful mechanism for exchanging views; disadvantages: can provide a partial view. other informal contacts advantages: useful mechanism for exchanging views; disadvantages: may be anecdotal and not grounded in reality. general synthesis and critical assessment of available evidence formal, national-level, projections based on a quantitative model advantages: comprehensive; consistent; transparent and explicit; quantitative; disadvantages: datahungry; costly; not everything is quantifiable; may give false impression of precision. focus groups, round tables, delphistyle methods advantages: holistic; direct ‘user’ or ‘customer’ involvement; disadvantages: can be non-systematic, inconsistent and subjective. scenario development analysis advantages: holistic; direct ‘user’ or ‘customer’ involvement; focuses on uncertainty. disadvantages: can be non-systematic, inconsistent and subjective. case studies using both quantitative and qualitative evidence advantages: holistic (for the sector); strong on sectoral and other specifics; disadvantages: partial; potentially biased, inconsistent across sectors. pot fi nesistematice, inconsistente, subiective. partial projections based on quantitative models (for example focusing on individual sectors or occupations) advantages: transparent and explicit; quantitative; targeted; disadvantages: not everything is quantifiable; may give false impression of precision; partial analysis may be biased. primary data collection analysis other foresight methods factual surveys directed at employers or households advantages: direct ‘user’ or ‘customer’ involvement; focuses on how people behave, not what they say or perceive; disadvantages: getting responses could be problematic; needs large samples to get robust data, therefore may be expensive. economy and sociology 47 december no. 2/2020 the effectiveness of the competence anticipation process depends on the extent to which the optimal combination of different tools will be made, each of which has, in addition to advantages, some limitations, as shown in figure 1. the main factors determining the content and methodology of the sectoral approach and, respectively, the possible choices regarding the tools and techniques to be applied, are set out in figure 2. figure 2. factors determining the content and methodology of the sectoral approach in anticipating competencies source: developed by the authors based on [wilson et al., 2016:13]. another important landmark of the sectoral analysis as a tool for anticipating competences is the active and productive involvement of stakeholders, including: employers and their representatives; employees and their representatives; the state; professional education and training providers; potential labor market participants (students, their parents, career guidance services) [wilson et al., 2016:13-14]. in addition to the tools and techniques applied, other important factors for the success of the sectoral analysis are highlighted, namely: commitment and support from beneficiaries, their active involvement (especially of the employers); representativeness of enterprises of various sizes (small, medium and large); availability of financial and human resources; skills and expertise in implementation; relevant data availability [ilo. skills for trade and economic diversification; ilo, 2004; wilson et al., 2016:14]. research methodology and resources the present investigation was carried out by following several consecutive steps: 1. synthesis study of the conceptual approaches of the sectoral analysis and of the good practices in applying the sectoral analysis in the competence anticipation; 2. assessment of general trends in the evolution of agricultural production and, distinctly, of crop production in the republic of moldova; 3. identification of factors that reduce crop production efficiency; study objectives existing institutional infrastructure existing statistical infrastructure economic and political context financial and human resource constraints primary data collection or using existing information from oficial and other sources using quantitative and qualitative methods choice between different data collection methods (surveys, interviews, etc.) application of different ways of anticipating the future factors determining the content and methodology of the sectoral approach possible choices theoretical and scientifical journal 48 december no. 2/2020 4. identification of the competences to be improved within the professional education programs with agricultural profile in the context of issues related to crop production; 5. prediction of the medium and long-term effects of proposed interventions. the assumed tasks were performed by using the following methods: investigating different resources regarding the sectoral approach in competence anticipation; analysis of the crop production in terms of quantitative and qualitative indicators; identification of problems related to crop production efficiency and, implicitly, to agricultural production in general; deducing the directions of intervention in professional education programs with agricultural profile and forecasting their effects in the medium and long term by using the objectives tree technique; formulation of reasoning and final recommendations on the necessary interventions in the programs. the sources of information were: a series of strategic documents, scientific and analytical publications on the researched subject, statistical data available on the official website of the national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova. the present investigation was carried out within the scientific project "predictive approaches to increasing the quality of skills in agricultural higher education based on the partnership with the business environment", no. 20.80009.0807.41. research results and discussions the need to focus efforts on improving the quality of the specialists for the agricultural sector is justified both by the recognized significance of the sector for the economic and social development of the republic of moldova, and by the absence of visible positive trends in its performance evolution. moreover, climate change, economic crises (example: the current crisis caused by the covid pandemic) amplify the pressures on agricultural balances and education budgets. at the current stage the agricultural professional education system in the republic of moldova consists of educational institutions of three levels: secondary technical vocational education, postsecondary technical vocational education and higher education. the productivity of the respective system can be evaluated by a series of indicators, the most relevant being the number and the quality of specialists trained for the national economy. with reference to the basic quantitative aspect of agricultural education performance, there exists the problem of continuous reduction of the number of students (figure 3) and, as a result, of the reduction of the number of graduates (figure 4). thus, as shown in figure 4, there is a visible descendent trend in the number of graduates from postsecondary technical vocational education institutions and from higher education institutions in the„agricultural sciences” field. with reference to the graduates from secondary technical vocational education institutions, we find out an insignificant increase in 2019. however, with the reduction of the number of students in the investigated field, it is obvious that in the future the number of graduates will drop. we have a positive situation only with reference to the field of "veterinary medicine" higher education, where growth trends are manifested in both the number of students and graduates. figure 3. the average number of agricultural program students in the republic of moldova in the 2016-2010 period, pers. source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. education and science]. 412 290 248 244 816 776 737 658 1094 607 570 562 291 293 280 287 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2010 the average number of students in the field ..agriculture, forestry, fishing and veterinary” in secondary technical vocational education the average number of students in the field ..agriculture, forestry, fishing and veterinary” in postsecondary technical vocational education the average number of students in the field of "agricultural sciences" in higher education (cycle i) the average number of students in the field of "veterinary medicine" in higher education (integrated studies) economy and sociology 49 december no. 2/2020 figure 4. the number of agricultural program graduates in the republic of moldova in the 2016-2019 period, pers. source: developed by the authors based on on [nbsrm. education and science]. descending trends in the number of graduates, along with the low level of employment according to their qualification, lead to a shortage of skilled labor in the sector [prisacaru et al., 2019; buciuceanu-vrabie and gagauz, 2017]. the quantitative insufficiency of qualified personnel in the agricultural production sector is not the only problem related to the transfer of professional education performance in the real sector, another important problem being unsatisfactory competencies. at the same time, it would be erroneous to say that the issue of connecting the competences offered by professional education institutions with agricultural profile in the republic of moldova is new, being widely addressed at different levels [national strategy for agricultural and rural development, 2014-2020; the concept regarding the restructuring of the research, innovation, education and rural extension system in the agri-food field]. however, the persistence of this problem, as evidenced by the low satisfaction of employers with the quality of professional education [prisacaru et al., 2019] denotes the reduced effectiveness of the efforts made up to the current stage. based on the latest reasoning, there is a clear need for better clarification of the necessary interventions in the study programs, an important step in this regard being to clarify the existing problems in the evolution of the sector and to identify the necessary curricular interventions. the sector evolution analysis, based on quantitative and qualitative indicators, is one of the recommended methods of the sectoral approach which, having a number of disadvantages as shown in figure 1, has also a series of benefits by highlighting the drivers of change in the sector – new trends in technology, trends in international business and the context in which the sector operates (wilson et al., 2016:26). without diminishing the significance of other tools that need to be operated and that should complement the sector analysis, we must recognize that the evaluation of the sectoral indicators trends is an indispensable component of competence anticipation process. already at the stage of examining the quantitative and qualitative trends found out in the sector evolution, and of problems and factors determining them, a series of directions of intervention in professional education programs can be designed, thus making an essential contribution to the quality of those programs. harnessing the trends in the sector evolution as a tool to rationalize professional education offer is possible by understanding the interdependence between economic indicators and the factors of different nature conditioning them. on the basis of detailed examination of the factors, the areas where professional education institutions can improve the competences of the future managers and specialists can be identified. the data on the evolution of agricultural production in the republic of moldova show the absence of increasing trends of the sector performance, a first sign being the negative tendency of the contribution of agriculture, forestry and fishing in gdp (figure 5). thus, we find out that, if in 2014 the sector’s contribution in gdp was 12.2%, it continuously decreased later, being only 10.3% in 2018. in the absence of available statistical data for the last two years (2019 and 2020), due to the 43 166 101 117 144 163 180 160 274 125 97 94 46 31 38 48 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2016 2017 2018 2019 the number of graduates in the field ..agriculture, forestry, fishing and veterinary” in secondary technical vocational education the number of graduates in the field ..agriculture, forestry, fishing and veterinary” in postsecondary technical vocational education the number of graduates in the field of "agricultural sciences" in higher education (cycle i) the number of graduates in the field of "veterinary medicine" in higher education (integrated studies) theoretical and scientifical journal 50 december no. 2/2020 drought faced by the republic of moldova in 2020 and the economic crisis caused by the pandemic, it is obvious that we can not expect an improvement of the situation, but rather the opposite. figure 5. the contribution of agriculture, forestry and fishing in the gdp of the republic of moldova in the 2010-2018 period, % source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. national accounts]. another significant aspect that reveals the prosperity of any sector is the evolution of the gross added value generated per employed person (figure 6). examining the evolution of the indicator over a period of eight years, we note a very slow rise, and the level of only 46.6 thousand lei reached in 2018. figure 6. gross value added per person employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing in the republic of moldova in the 2011-2018 period, thousand lei (comparable prices) source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. national accounts. gross domestic product; nbsrm. labour force]. one of the important criteria for a sector performance is its contribution to exports. as we note in figure 7, the share of agricultural products in total exports has fluctuating trends, registering its significant reduction in 2018, while the share of imported agricultural products had slow, but steady growth trends. figure 7. comparative analysis of the share of agricultural products in total imports and exports of the republic of moldova in the 2010-2018 period, % source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. external trade]. crop production is a branch that the economy of the republic of moldova relies on, especially as a result of the decline in the livestock production generated by the privatization process. the first step in the analysis of the crop production evolution consists in the estimation of its production potential, an important element of which are the agricultural areas of various categories. in this context, the trends in perennial plantations areas as well as those cultivated with vegetables have a special significance, fruit and vegetables representing high value crops, on which a greater stake is placed (tables 1 and 2). 11.2 11.4 10.4 11.6 12.2 11.5 11.4 11.5 10.3 5 10 15 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 31.3 29.5 47.9 41.5 37 48.3 50.9 46.6 0 50 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 23.85 22.96 18.42 22.41 26.05 27.42 27.86 29.26 27.06 6.84 5.91 6.42 6.38 6.66 7.38 6.93 6.76 6.950 50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 the share of agricultural products in total exports the share of agricultural products in total imports economy and sociology 51 december no. 2/2020 table 1 evolution of perennial plantation areas in the republic of moldova in the 2010-2018 period indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 total fruit, berries and nuts plantations, thousand ha 116 119 120 122 122 136 135 138 140 incl. in agricultural enterprises of all types 53.9 54.5 55.8 56.7 64.2 63.8 61.5 64.1 65.8 share of fruit, berry and nut plantations of the agricultural enterprises in the total area of respective plantations, % 46.47 45.80 46.50 46.48 52.62 46.91 45.56 46.45 47.00 total area of vineyards, thousand ha 145 140 141 137 140 135 135 130 133 incl. in agricultural enterprises of all types 36.8 35.1 34.3 32.1 31.9 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.9 share of vineyard of the agricultural enterprises in the total area of vineyards,% 25.38 25.07 24.33 23.43 22.79 22.59 22.52 23.46 23.23 source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. agriculture. crop production]. according to the data in table 1, the plantations of fruit trees, nuts and berries increased continuously in the analyzed period (2010-2018), reaching the level of 140 thousand ha in 2018. thus there is an absolute increase of the respective areas of 24 thousand ha equivalent to a growth rate of 120.7%. areas managed by agricultural enterprises had the same trend, the growth rate being 122.1%. total vineyard area decreased by 8.28%, including those managed by enterprises – by 16%. regarding the share of area with perennial crops managed by enterprises in the total areas, we can see that in the analyzed period it did not vary substantially. table 2 evolution of the areas cultivated with vegetables in the republic of moldova in the period 2010-2018 indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 total areas cultivated with vegetables, thousand ha 77 73 65 66 63 57 59 57 53 incl. in agricultural enterprises of all types 15.2 12.8 10.6 9.4 9.8 7.4 8.2 6.9 6.5 share of areas cultivated with vegetables of the enterprises in the total area,% 19.74 17.53 16.31 14.24 15.56 12.98 13.90 12.11 12.26 source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. agriculture. crop production]. according to the data in table 2, the areas cultivated with vegetables decreased continuously during the researched period, the level reached in 2018 being by 24 thousand ha below the level of 2010, which means a reduction by 31.16%. at the same time, we notice an even more substantial reduction, by over 57%, in the vegetable areas of agricultural enterprises. due to the potential value of vegetables, along with other special meanings (e.g. as a food product, as raw material for the processing industry, etc.), the stated trends can certainly be considered an alarm signal for decision makers on the strategic direction of the sector. by generalizing the data on the evolution of agricultural areas, we can positively appreciate the increase of the areas of perennial plantations in the investigated period. at the same time, based on the economic significance of perennial crops, we can deduce that the growth rate of areas of only 120.7% in a period of nine years is insufficient. the reduction of areas cultivated with vegetables is another problem of the sector with a negative impact on its performance. in order to highlight the economic results of the crop production, we will initially elucidate the trends in the evolution of the global crop production (figure 8) and the crop production index (figure 9). theoretical and scientifical journal 52 december no. 2/2020 figure 8. evolution of the global crop production in the republic of moldova in the 2010-2019 period, million lei source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. agriculture. crop production]. figure 9. evolution of the crop production index in the republic of moldova in the 2013-2019 period, % source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. agriculture. crop production]. according to the data presented in figure 8, we notice the increasing trends in the crop production value. thus, despite the reduction of the indicator in 2012 and 2018 compared to previous years, the level reached in 2019 is higher than that recorded in 2010, the total growth rate (for nine years) being 180%. however, the indicators set out in figure 8 cannot serve as indisputable evidence of the increase in crop production performance under the following circumstances: • the crop production index, as we notice from figure 9, did not have continuous growth tendencies, being ascertained even its continuous reduction starting with the year 2016; • global crop production is an indicator that expresses the result, but not the economic efficiency of the brunch. in order to deepen the study, we will use the "crop yields" indicator which provides a more accurate picture of the quality of the production factors` management (table 3). table 3 crop yields in the republic of moldova in the period 2010-2019, quintals/ha indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 cereal and legume crops 22.3 25.4 14.3 30.8 34.0 25.1 35.0 39.2 37.9 sugar beet 326.6 240.1 191.4 358.6 501.6 255.5 329.0 381.8 386.5 tobacco 17.6 15.3 13.1 15.4 17.4 16.2 13.9 18.3 19.5 sunflower 15.4 15.7 10.3 20.5 18.4 15.5 19.8 21.8 22.3 soy 18.7 13.4 8.0 16.7 21.5 7.2 11.8 14.4 22.2 potatoes 130.9 152.3 105.9 157.7 184.3 114.7 139.5 149.7 142.6 field vegetables 67.1 88.5 73.6 88.8 105.1 115.2 138.1 142.2 130.4 pumpkin food crops 46.5 50.4 38.4 59.7 35.5 52.2 54.3 69.4 103.8 roots for fodder 275.9 264.4 204.1 273.2 404.0 272.9 143.4 41.5 35.6 corn for silage, green mass and hay 152.8 148.7 48.6 171.4 177.1 97.7 190.5 193.7 270.2 seed fruits 42.3 56.6 60.6 81.8 92.9 67.6 89.7 119.9 171.0 stone fruits 27.1 18.4 19.8 37.2 41.2 49.9 51.9 48.4 65.6 nuts 1.7 2.2 0.9 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.8 5.4 berries 8.7 8.6 10.8 10.5 17.0 11.0 14.5 19.5 27.8 grapes 23.1 44.8 40.5 62.1 51.3 53.3 62.3 79.0 86.0 source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. agriculture. crop production]. note: data reflects the situation in agricultural enterprises. 13 616 15 751 11 968 15 480 17 341 18 082 21 098 24 435 22 883 24 510 0 20 000 40 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 163.6 110.8 77.7 126.6 113.7 103.8 99.7 0 200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 economy and sociology 53 december no. 2/2020 the data in table 3 show an increase in the crop yields, with the exception of fodder roots. at the same time, we note that none of the crops shows a stable trend of increasing yields, with fluctuations being identified in its evolution. the modest results in the evolution of crop production are also confirmed by the efficiency indicators of the agricultural enterprises (table 4). table 4 evolution of financial results of agricultural enterprises in the republic of moldova in the period 2015-2018 indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 number of profitable enterprises, units 1530 1935 2431 2479 financial result of profitable enterprises, million lei 1148.94 1731.69 2720.43 2136.42 number of unprofitable enterprises, units 1377 1254 1163 1431 financial result of unprofitable enterprises, million lei -1039.81 -451.7 -274.93 -525.25 total financial result before tax, million lei 109.13 1279.99 2445.50 1611.16 source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. entrepreneurship]. the data in table 4 show the increase in the number of enterprises that operated profitably during the analyzed period, but also the continued existence of an impressive number of unprofitable enterprises. through a more detailed investigation (figure 10) we can see that in 2018 the share of profitable enterprises was 60.67%. even if, compared to the level of 2015, in 2018 the share of profitable enterprises increased by 10.19 pp, there are no stable trends in their share. at the same time, during the analyzed period a significant part of enterprises operated with losses, as we note in figure 11. in the evolution of the total financial result, as well as, distinctly, of the profit obtained by the profitable enterprises and the losses of other category of enterprises, we also note the absence of stable improvement trends. figure 10. evolution of the share of profitable agricultural enterprises in the period 2015-2018, % source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. entrepreneurship]. figure 11. evolution of the share of unprofitable agricultural enterprises in the period 2015-2018, % source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. entrepreneurship]. by examining the "average profit per employee" indicator (figure 12) we can see the same trends as in the total financial results of agricultural enterprises: while there is a steady increase in the indicator in the 2015-2017 period, 2018 was marked by its substantial reduction (by 33.8%). 50.48 58.32 65.3 60.67 0 50 100 2015 2016 2017 2018 45.43 37.39 31.24 35.02 0 20 40 60 2015 2016 2017 2018 theoretical and scientifical journal 54 december no. 2/2020 figure 12. evolution of the average profit per employee in agricultural enterprises in the 2015-2018 period, lei source: developed by the authors based on [nbsrm. entrepreneurship]. by generalizing the presented above, we deduce the modest performance of agricultural production in general and of the crop production in particular, as well as the absence of visible positive trends in their evolution. the synthesis of some analytical studies on the subject reveals a series of factors conditioning the low profitability of crop production (table 5). table 5 factors conditioning the low profitability of crop production in the republic of moldova groups of factors according to their nature the factors` content technological factors • the dominant position of low value crops (cereals, oilseeds, sugar beet); • low level of application of modern agricultural technologies (drought-resistant varieties, hail protection tools, etc.); • insufficient irrigation capacity. managerial factors • dual and fragmented structure of agricultural enterprises; • poorly developed risk management tools; • lack of knowledge in product promotion. economic and financial factors • relatively high local production costs; • much lower productivity of agricultural crops compared to the eu countries; • limited share of investments in agriculture; • limited share of foreign capital in long-term active investments; • high interest rates on bank loans and the short period of time for which loans are offered; • lack of conditions and of infrastructure for storing products; •lack of the necessary resources to carry out at least partial processing of production. factors regarding the state mechanisms for managing the sector • long and expensive procedures for registering varieties; • instability of legislation, which increases business costs and creates difficulties in making forecasts for longer periods of time; • instability of the country's policy in the field of international cooperation. market factors • monopoly on the local market by large companies that do not allow producers to market their products at advantageous prices; • difficulties in penetrating new markets; • high competition in foreign markets; • underdevelopment of the land market. natural factors • unfavorable weather conditions. source: developed by the authors based on [national strategy for agricultural and rural development, 2014-2020; lupusor et all 2017; stihi and zatic, 2016]. through the synthetic evaluation of the data presented in table 5 we can conclude that the crop production efficiency can be increased through a system of complex and varied measures of technological, economic-financial, organizational, managerial, legislative-normative nature, etc., 2584 30104 59064 39054 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 2015 2016 2017 2018 economy and sociology 55 december no. 2/2020 which, in their turn, require active and effective involvement of several actors and an optimal synergy of their efforts. last but not least, we must mention the multitude of "cause-effect" relationships between various factors analyzed. for example, high production costs (economic factor) generate difficulties in penetrating products into markets, including external ones (market factor). on the other hand, the deficiencies in the application of advanced technologies (as a technological factor) are determined both by insufficient knowledge of advanced technologies (managerial factor) and by insufficient financial resources as a result of limited self-financing possibilities and difficulties in attracting external resources (financial factors). based on the above mentioned, we also deduce the multiple effects of the same possible measures and, therefore, the special significance of those measures for the prosperity of the analyzed branch. among them, we will emphasize in particular the better quality of agricultural education and training. in this context, based on the previously presented problems related to crop production, and using the objectives tree technique, we will schematically represent the recommendations for improving agricultural education programs and the expected medium and long term results (figure 13). figure 13. the tree of agricultural education objectives regarding the improvement of competences in the field of crop production source: developed by the authors. as shown in figure 13, based on the problems that appeared in the evolution of the crop production, a number of objectives can be identified, and namely: objectives aimed at applying increasing the quality of qualified personnel in the crop production improving competences in the field of applied production technologies: • application of advanced production technologies • rationalization of production technologies according to natural factors • economic-ecological argumentation of crop rotations improving competences in the field of business initiation and development (managerial and entrepreneurial): • economic argumentation of the organizational structure of the economic units • risk assessment and management • application of effective product promotion tools • application of market investigation tools • negotiation of sale-purchase contracts • cost effective planning and management • business planning • project development and project management (with reimbursable and non-reimbursable financing) • possession and active application of digital skills in the related activity fields • elaboration and management of projects with reimbursable and non-reimbursable financing. • increasing the agricultural crops yields • solving problems related to soil damage • rationalization of supply and sales processes • identifying and attracting financing resources with minimal costs • increasing the quality of management of means of production, ensuring an efficient activity • ensuring the sustainable development of crop production; • increasing the contribution of crop production to gdp theoretical and scientifical journal 56 december no. 2/2020 production technologies and objectives related to improving managerial and entrepreneurial competences. the effects of improving the related study programs are systematized in medium term effects (increasing crop yields, increasing soil fertility, streamlining supply and sales processes; identifying and attracting financing resources with minimal costs; increasing the quality of production management, ensuring efficient activity), and leading to the long-term effect (ensuring the sustainable development of the branch and increasing its contribution to gdp). it should be noted that much of the competences needed to be improved in agricultural professional education programs in the republic of moldova are analogous to international concerns in this regard under the following circumstances: the sector will increasingly face both threats and opportunities because of climate changes. thus, the agriculture is seen as the sector providing benefits and services over and above the production of commodities (uk commission for employment and skills, 2012). but at the same time, advanced skills will be required, especially in the application of technologies adapted to environmental regulations. the skills of efficient business management are also widely addressed, thus creating premises for business continuity. conclusions the data obtained as a result of the analysis of crop production in the republic of moldova as a tool of sectoral approach to anticipating competences, shows the existence of a wide range of problems that hinder the development and, respectively, the competitiveness of the branch. solving the problems related to the agricultural production efficiency in general and to the crop production efficiency in particular, requires a series of measures of economic, managerial, normative and legislative nature, etc., as well as the involvement of a wide list of actors representing various fields and levels. among them, agricultural education institutions are meant to contribute by providing better competences to future managers and specialists, so as to overcome or at least to diminish a number of problems in the sector. based on the problems appeared in the development of crop production, we can identify the following competences, on which greater emphasis must be placed in the process of professional education: i. in the field of applied production technologies: • application of advanced production technologies; • rationalization of production technologies according to natural factors; • economic-ecological argumentation of crop rotations. i. in the field of business initiation and development: • economic argumentation of the organizational structure of the economic units; • risk assessment and management; • application of effective product promotion tools; • application of market investigation tools; • negotiation of sale-purchase contracts; • cost effective planning and management; • business planning; • project development and project management (with reimbursable and non-reimbursable financing); • possession and active application of digital skills in the related activity fields. improving the competencies mentioned above is an important step in increasing the quality of the professional education process. references 1. strategia națională de dezvoltare agricolă şi rurală pentru anii 2014-2020: nr. 409 din 04.06.2020. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2014, nr. 152, art. 451 [cited 12 february 2020]. available: https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=110039&lang=ro 2. bogush, l. directions of modernization of ukrainian educational system in the context of increasing youth competitiveness on the labour market. in: economie şi sociologie = economy and sociology. 2017, nr. 3, pp. 102-114. issn 1857-4130, e-issn 2587-3172. 3. buciuceanu-vrabie, m., gagauz, o. tinerii pe piața muncii din republica moldova: https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=110039&lang=ro economy and 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[cited 22 january 2020]. available: https://dera.ioe.ac.uk/15967/1/evidence-report-58-agriculture-ssa.pdf 25. weinert, f.e. concepts of competence. germany, munich: max planck institute for psychological research, 1999 [cited 15 june 2020] disponibil: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8b88/efa9dd5e0a4b605aea6e5e3b9ec640beb089.pdf 26. wilson, r.a., tarjáni, h., rihova, h. working at sectoral level. guide to anticipating and matching skills and jobs. geneva, 2016, vol. 3. 168 p. isbn 978-92-9157-657-9 [cited 05 may 2020]. available: https://www.etf.europa.eu/en/publications-andresources/publications/working-sectoral-level-guide-anticipating-and-matching article history received 25 may 2020 accepted 19 october 2020 https://statistica.gov.md/category.php?l=en&idc=368 http://www.odimm.md/files/ro/pdf/publicatii/analiza_industria_agro-alimentar.pdf http://www.odimm.md/files/ro/pdf/publicatii/analiza_industria_agro-alimentar.pdf https://dera.ioe.ac.uk/15967/1/evidence-report-58-agriculture-ssa.pdf https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8b88/efa9dd5e0a4b605aea6e5e3b9ec640beb089.pdf https://www.etf.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/publications/working-sectoral-level-guide-anticipating-and-matching https://www.etf.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/publications/working-sectoral-level-guide-anticipating-and-matching theoretical and scientifical journal 140 december no. 2/2020 traffic-related mortality in moldova vitalie stirba1, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-12 jel classification: i18, j10, r41 udc: 314.42(478) abstract this article analyses the mortality caused by road accidents in moldova depending on the degree of involvement of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, drivers and passengers of transport units, depending on age and sex. results suggest that traffic-related mortality in moldova has shown an increased incidence among the young and working-age population, where a significant difference between males and females is observed. among the youth, traffic-related deaths register between 10-27% of the overall mortality in both sexes. the risk exposure of dying in a traffic accident decreases with age and is less significant in the retired ages. during the years 1998 -2015, avoidance of trafficrelated deaths would have assured an increase in life expect ancy between 0.40-0.56 years in males, and 0.09-0.23 years in females. the continuous increase in the number of transport units on public roads, as well as in the number of hours spent in traffic, influences the degree of exposure to the risk of death or injury as a result of road traffic accidents. trauma resulting from road accidents increases the incidence of premature mortality and disability among the population, which is reflected by the decrease of healthy life expectancy. it is ascertained that the road accident mortality requires a detailed and comprehensive analysis given the multitude of factors influencing deaths and injuries related to a traffic accident among the population. thus, in order to improve road safety and reduce mortality incidence among traffic participants, a range of actions has to be implemented by the liable actors, including through the international experience. keywords: traffic accidents, external causes of death, avoidable mortality, traffic-related injuries, road safety. în prezentul articol este analizată mortalitatea cauzată de accidentele rutiere în funcție de gradul de implicare a participanților la trafic (pietoni, bicicliști, motocicliști, șoferi și pasageri al unităților de transport), după vârstă și sex. rezultatele sugerează că mortalitatea cauzată de accidentele rutiere înregistrează o incidență sporită în rândul populației tinere și în vârstă de muncă, unde este observată o diferențiere semnificativă între bărbați și femei. în vârstele tinere, decesele prin accidentele rutiere înregistrează între 10-27% în mortalitatea generală la ambele sexe. expunerea asupra riscului de deces în rezultatul accidentelor rutiere scade odată cu avansarea în vârstă și este mai puțin semnificativă în vârstele de pensionare. în anii 1998-2015, evitarea deceselor cauzate de accidentele rutiere ar fi asigurat o creștere a speranței de viață între 0,40 -0,56 ani la bărbați și 0,09-0,23 ani la femei. creșterea continuă a numărului de unități de transport, precum și a num ărului de ore petrecute în trafic, influențează gradul de expunere riscului de deces sau vătămare ca urmare a accidentelor rutiere. traumatismele rezultate în urma accidentelor rutiere sporește incidența mortalității premature și dizabilităților în rândul populației, ceea ce se reflectă asupra descreșterii speranței de viață sănătoase. accidentele rutiere necesită o analiză detaliată și cuprinzătoare, având în vedere multitudinea factorilor care influențează numărul de decese și traumatisme în rândul populației. astfel, pentru a îmbunătăți siguranța rutieră și a reduce incidența mortalității în rândul participanților la trafic, este necesară implementarea unui șir de acțiuni, inclusiv prin utilizarea experienței internaționale. cuvinte-cheie: accidente rutiere, cauze externe de deces, mortalitate evitabilă, siguranță rutieră. 1 id orcid 0000-0001-5948-6509 email: vitalie.stirba@ccd.ince.md economy and sociology 141 december no. 2/2020 в данной статье анализируется смертность от дорожно-транспортных происшествий в молдове в зависимости от степени вовлеченности различных категорий населения (пешеходов, велосипедистов, мотоциклистов, водителей и пассажиров транспортных средств), а также по полу и возрасту. результаты показывают, что смертность, связанная с дорожными транспортными пришествиями (дтп), вызывает существенные потери среди молодого и трудоспособного населения. в молодых возрастах, смертность, связанная с дтп, составляет 10-27% от общей смертности для обоих полов. подверженность риску смерти в дтп уменьшается с возрастом и менее значительна для пенсионеров. в течение 1998-2015 гг. предотвращение смертей, связанных с дтп, обеспечило бы увеличение продолжительности жизни на 0,40-0,56 года у мужчин и 0,09-0,23 года у женщин. постоянный рост количества транспортных средств, а также количества часов, проведенных в движении, влияет на степень подверженности риску смерти или травматизма в результате дтп. травмы, полученные в результате дтп, увеличивают численность преждевременных смертей и инвалидности среди населения, что отражается в снижении продолжительности здоровой жизни. дорожнотранспортные происшествия требуют подробного и всестороннего анализа с учетом множества факторов, влияющих на травматизмы и смертность среди населения. повышение безопасности дорожного движения и снижение уровня смертности, могут быть достигнуты, в том числе, за счет применения международного опыта. ключевые слова: дорожно-транспортные происшествия, внешние причины смерти, предотвратимая смертность, безопасность дорожного движения. this article was elaborated within the state programme (2020-2023) 20.80009.0807.21, „migrația, schimbări demografice și politici de stabilizare a situației”. introduction the gradual increase in the number of vehicles and transport units, as well as in the number of hours spent in traffic, has a direct influence on the risk of exposure to death or injury as the result of road accidents. deaths due to traffic accidents cause significant losses among the young and workingage population, which has direct economic consequences. injuries, as a result of traffic accidents, also may have a tangential effect on premature deaths, peoples’ disabilities, and to contribute to the reduction in years of a healthy life span. persons under the incidence of risk-involvement in road accidents endure their consequences depending on the role of involvement in traffic, registering differentiation in mortality/morbidity rates for drivers, passengers, bicyclists, pedestrians, etc. the traffic-accident risk exposure differs considerably depending on populations’ characteristics, such as age, sex, urban/rural residence, and other socioeconomic factors. effective policy programs regarding traffic accidents diminution could prevent a certain number of deaths and traumas, which will improve the population’s health and reduce economic losses. even though reducing road accident mortality is one of the main goals on the government's agenda, some legislative aspects, the constant increase in the number of cars on public roads, existing pedestrian and road infrastructure are maintaining relatively high mortality and injury incidence, especially compared to developed countries. the purpose of this paper is to emphasize mortality dynamics due to traffic-related accidents in moldova, as well as assessing population losses depending on age, sex, and the degree of involvement in a road traffic accident (pedestrian, pedal cyclist, motorcycle rider, car occupant, and others). the presented research is a country-level study, thus, at the regional level, traffic-related mortality may register a different incidence. literature overview traffic-related mortality and injuries in moldova have been studied by different field researchers, which allows this problem to be regarded from an economic, social, demographic, public health, etc., perspective. a general overview regarding mortality caused by traffic accidents in moldova was carried out by bargan, where attention was focused on population losses (bargan, 2016). gagauz and pahomii have highlighted a significant loss among the young population in moldova as a result of motor vehicle theoretical and scientifical journal 142 december no. 2/2020 accidents (gagauz & pahomii, 2017). moreover, it was pointed out that traffic-related deaths’ are not uniformly distributed within a calendar year (palanciuc & cemirtan, 2015). an important attention was paid to emergency medical help and post-traumatic interventions to the persons involved in traffic accidents (ciobanu, 2011). it was highlighted that traffic speed, road infrastructure, existing legislation and regulations have a strong association with traffic accident incidence (bricicaru & burlacu, 2015). deaths caused by traffic accidents are presented as one of the major contributors to external mortality (pahomii & ștîrba, 2018) that can be avoided as a result of the improvement of road infrastructure and various policy implementations (stirba & pahomii, 2019). existing cross-country studies that approach traffic-related mortality highlight a relatively high incidence of mortality in moldova with certain similarities to the countries in the region (who, 2015). data and methods used data on cause-of-death distribution by age and sex were retrieved from the who mortality database, which presents a set of available years between 1996-20161 (who mortality database). in the presented research deaths were grouped in by major causes: pedestrian injured in transport accident (v01-v09); pedal cyclist injured in transport accident (v10-v19); motorcycle rider injured in transport accident (v20-v29); car occupant injured in transport accident (v40-v49); other land transport accidents (v30-v39, v50-v90). considering distorted population statistics in moldova due to out-migration underestimation, provided calculations were based on estimated population distribution by age and sex, which includes a series of data where the last available year is 2015 (penina, jdanov, & grigoriev, 2015). an accurate and recalculated official population distribution by age and sex has only been available since 2014 (nbs database). in order to perform life expectancy decomposition abridged life tables were calculated for each year in the analysed period, with the last opened age-group interval of 85+ for males and females. standardised death rates (sdr) were calculated based on the new european standard population (eurostat, 2013). results and discussions during the last decades, deaths due to traffic accidents have registered a steady and slightly fluctuating distribution in absolute values, with observed improvements in the last-analysed years. the number of annual deaths varied depending on population characteristics such as age and sex distribution, as well as their degree of participation in traffic as pedestrians, pedal cyclists, motorcycle riders, and car occupants. the number of traffic-related deaths during the analysed years had been in a strong association with two important factors: population dynamics (that registered constant decrease due to natural decline and out-migration) (gagauz et al., 2016) and a constant increase in the number of cars. existing demographic waves, that resulted from age distribution dynamics, contributed through the years to certain changes in population risk exposure of being involved in a traffic accident. figures 1 and 2 show absolute numbers of traffic-related deaths by main causes for males and females. as we can see, the number of pedestrians who died in a traffic accident has decreased gradually since 1998 for both sexes, with a more accentuated numerical decline in males. thus, the number of pedestrians who died in a traffic accident decreased from 147 males and 57 females in 1998 to 35 males and 29 females in 2016. this significant decline could be a result of the continuous implementation of road safety policies as well as improvements to automobile construction by manufacturers. even the number of deaths among pedal cyclists and motorcycle riders in a traffic accident is relatively low comparing to the overall number of deaths, we must point that the risk exposure of these traffic participants is highest, comparing with pedestrians and car occupants. the main reason for high-risk involvement in a traffic accident among cyclists and motorcyclists is due to their vulnerability from the perspective of infrastructure and road safety (including neglected safety rules 1 since 1998 data are not covering the left bank of the nistru river. economy and sociology 143 december no. 2/2020 such as wearing a helmet, speeding, etc.). at the same time, these traffic participants suffer the most severe health consequences from a road traffic accident, after which the resulting injury could lead to disability or death. considering the steady increase in the number of cars during the analysed period (public services agency, 2020), as well as the observed suburbanization process towards main cities (ștîrba, 2017), which lead to an increase in the number of hours spent in traffic, a significant diminution in the mortality due to traffic accidents was difficult to be expected. a challenging side in traffic-related mortality analysis is the national cause-of-death codification. thus, a major number of deaths caused by traffic accidents are codified as v89.2 (person injured in unspecified motor-vehicle accident, traffic), which makes it difficult to distinguish the type of car-collision in which passengers and drivers were involved. since 1998, a constant increase in the number of deaths that resulted in a vehicle collision was observed for both sexes. consequently, a decreasing trend in the registered number of deaths due to car accidents was highlighted for males and females within the years 2009-2016. an important step in mortality diminution due to traffic accidents was made in the context of the implementation of the national strategy for road safety (government decision, 2011), that, besides the organizational factors, were focused on reducing behavioral negligence in road traffic (not wearing a seat belt, speeding, texting while driving, drunk driving, etc.), as well as raising awareness of traffic accidents. besides that, some changes were introduced in the administrative and criminal codes to toughen penalties for violations and neglect of traffic rules. in addition, an important factor was the constant increase in the level of car safety, which helps to preserve the lives and health of drivers and passengers. figure 1-2. number of traffic-related deaths by causes and sex, moldova, 1998-2016 source: who mortality database. traffic-related deaths have a significant contribution to overall mortality within the young population, for males and females (figures 3-4). such a situation resulting due to insignificant mortality incidence by other causes of death in young age groups, and relatively high-risk exposure to be involved in a traffic accident. even the share of traffic-related deaths in overall mortality decreases starting with the age of 35 among both sexes, the probability of dying or being injured in a road accident is relatively high until the age of 60, especially for males. thus, with advancing age, when the probability of death caused by degenerative diseases (circulatory system diseases, cancers, etc.) increases, deaths caused by road accidents have an insignificant contribution to the total number of deaths among the retirement age groups. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 d e a th s males other transport accidents car occupant injured in transport accident motorcycle rider injured in transport accident pedal cyclist injuredin transport accident pedestrian injured in transport accident 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 d e a th s females other transport accidents car occupant injured in transport accident motorcycle rider injured in transport accident pedal cyclist injuredin transport accident pedestrian injured in transport accident theoretical and scientifical journal 144 december no. 2/2020 even though the traffic-related number of deaths in overall mortality in the period 2007-2016 shows a greater influence on particular age groups, comparing to the years 1997-2006 (figures 3-4), this is rather due to changes in general mortality. moreover, an observed mortality diminution since 2008 has had a different pace in incidence reduction depending on the causes of death. thus, traffic-related deaths continue causing significant losses among the young population, reaching between 10% and 27% in the total number of deaths in the age groups 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34, for males and females. figure 3-4. the share of traffic-related deaths in overall mortality in moldova, by age and sex, for the 1997-2006 and 2007-2016 periods source: own calculations based on data from (who mortality database) and (penina, jdanov & grigoriev, 2015). traffic-related standardised death rate (sdr) by main causes (figures 5-6) denotes an increase in the number of deaths for both sexes during 1999-2008. since 2009, the number of deaths per 100 thousand population has registered a steady decrease. despite highlighted changes in sdr due to trafficrelated mortality dynamics over the years, a pronounced gap between the number of deaths in males and females has been observed. thus, in males, the number of traffic-related deaths per 100 thousand population increased from 25.2 in 1999 to 29.4 in 2001, 30.7 in 2004, and 32.8 in 2004; after which, decreasing to 26.2 in 2011, 23.4 in 2013, and 21.4 in 2015. for females, the number of traffic-related deaths per 100 thousand population rose steadily from 6.8 in 1999 to 8.6 in 2003, and 9.5 in 2007, followed by a decrease to 7.7 in 2009, 7.5 in 2011, and 4.4 in 2015. the number of pedestrians who died in traffic accidents decreased constantly during 1999-2015 in both sexes. thus, in males, the number of deaths among pedestrians per 100 thousand population dropped from 9.8 in 1999 to 4.3 in 2015. in females, the number of pedestrians who died in traffic accidents per 100 thousand population decreased from 3.0 in 1999 to 1.0 in 2015. even the observed diminution in mortality amongst pedestrians involved in a traffic accident was highlighted during the analysed years, the number of deaths (per 100 thousand population) in this population cohort being higher than those registered in developed countries. deaths among cyclists and motorcyclists are largely associated with males, due to the risk-exposure they face, considering their greater involvement in using this type of transport, compared to females. therefore, the number of deaths in male cyclists per 100 thousand population ranged between 0.3 and 1.0 during the years 1999-2015. motorcycle riders among males, who died in a traffic accident, registered between 0.7 and 1.7 deaths per 100 thousand populations within the years 1999-2015, with accentuated peaks in 2004 and 2015. during the analysed years most of the deaths that occurred in traffic accidents are related to car occupants (drivers and passengers). at the same time, with the present traffic-related cause-of-death codification, it is challenging to distinguish the circumstances of deaths as a result of road accidents which involve cars, as well as commercial and public transport. thus, a large number of deaths in the analysed period were codified as deaths caused by other transport accidents. 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 0 1 -4 5 -9 1 0 -1 4 1 5 -1 9 2 0 -2 4 2 5 -2 9 3 0 -3 4 3 5 -3 9 4 0 -4 4 4 5 -4 9 5 0 -5 4 5 5 -5 9 6 0 -6 4 6 5 -6 9 7 0 -7 4 7 5 -7 9 8 0 -8 4 8 5 + % males 1997-2006 2007-2016 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 0 5 -9 1 5 -1 9 2 5 -2 9 3 5 -3 9 4 5 -4 9 5 5 -5 9 6 5 -6 9 7 5 -7 9 8 5 + % females 1997-2006 2007-2016 economy and sociology 145 december no. 2/2020 the standardized mortality rate for persons who have died as a driver or passenger has the highest share in overall road accident mortality during the analysed years. besides this, a significant difference in mortality is observed between males and females, which could be explained as the result of a higher number of hours spent in traffic by males, including by professional reasons, as well as different behavioural risk-involvements, such as speeding, improperly worn seat belt, texting while driving, and other disregards for traffic rules. traffic-related deaths among drivers and passengers also have a significant interconnection with road surface quality and road infrastructure maintenance. figure 5-6. traffic-related standardised death rates by causes and sex, moldova, 1999-2015 source: own calculations based on data from (who mortality database) and (penina, jdanov & grigoriev, 2015). life table distribution of deaths (dx) that occurred in road traffic accidents show different incidence between males and females (figures 7-8). age distribution of traffic-related deaths within the hypothetical cohort emphasizes an oscillating increase among males in aged 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29, followed by a steady decrease in subsequent years. in females, traffic-related deaths are smoother distributed during the lifetime, with less significant losses among the population aged 0-14 and 85+. during the analysed period, cumulative losses within hypothetical cohorts registered about 1.5% in males and 0.5% in females. figure 7-8. life table distribution of deaths caused by traffic accidents by age and sex, moldova, 1997-2006 and 2007-2015 source: own calculations based on data from (who mortality database) and (penina, jdanov & grigoriev, 2015). 0 10 20 30 40 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 5 p e r 1 0 0 0 0 0 p o p u la ti o n males other transport accidents car occupant injured in transport accident motorcycle rider injured in transport accident pedal cyclist injuredin transport accident pedestrian injured in transport accident 0 10 20 30 40 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 p e r 1 0 0 0 0 0 p o p u la ti o n females other transport accidents car occupant injured in transport accident motorcycle rider injured in transport accident pedal cyclist injuredin transport accident 0 50 100 150 200 0 5 -9 1 5 -1 9 2 5 -2 9 3 5 -3 9 4 5 -4 9 5 5 -5 9 6 5 -6 9 7 5 -7 9 8 5 + d i x males 1997-2006 2007-2015 0 50 100 150 200 0 5 -9 1 5 -1 9 2 5 -2 9 3 5 -3 9 4 5 -4 9 5 5 -5 9 6 5 -6 9 7 5 -7 9 8 5 + d i x females 1997-2006 2007-2015 theoretical and scientifical journal 146 december no. 2/2020 deaths caused by road traffic accidents have had influenced a notable decrease in life expectancy within the analysed period, for both males and females (figure 9). the observed losses in males’ life expectancy due to traffic-related mortality, within the analysed period has shown fluctuated values between 0.40 and 0.56 years, with some improvements in the last observed years. in females, deaths caused by road accidents decreased life expectancy between 0.09 and 0.23 years during 1998-2015. life expectancy losses due to traffic-related mortality, despite the absolute number of annual deaths, depend largely on the age of the persons' deaths. thus, the deaths among the young population lead to greater losses in the number of person/years. figure 9. the average annual losses in life expectancy dynamics as a result of traffic-related mortality in moldova, by sex, 1998-2015 source: own calculations based on the data from (who mortality database) and (penina, jdanov & grigoriev, 2015). the results presented show a country-level analysis regarding mortality caused by road accidents. therefore, it is understood that mortality incidence from road traffic accidents differs between regions. considering the lack of data regarding vital events registration and population exposure from the territory on the left bank of the nistru river, the following region was not included in the research presented. it should be pointed, that ‘small numbers’ among specific causes of death may cause a fluctuating trend in mortality dynamics. the number of traffic-related deaths generally depends on multiple factors (road infrastructure, law and traffic regulations, technical conditions of the vehicles, the number of traffic participants, etc.), and a single road accident may lead from zero to multiple deaths and injuries. therefore, accidents need to be analysed in order to prevent them, as well as to ensure road safety. conclusions during the analysed period, traffic-related mortality in moldova has shown an increased incidence among the young and working-age population, where a significant difference between males and females was observed. the general trend in mortality caused by traffic accidents is emphasizing a slow decrease in synthetic indicators and absolute numbers, which is a result of the national strategy for road safety implementation, as well as road infrastructure development, and steadily raising awareness of the danger of accidents in road traffic. the annual number of deaths due to road accidents derives largely from the population structure change, given that specific age groups of the population are most exposed to the risk. the results suggest that the subject of road accident mortality requires a detailed and comprehensive analysis given the multitude of factors influencing deaths and injuries related to a traffic accident among the population. the presented research is not covering multiple factors that are influencing populations’ health, morbidity, and injuries that may lead to premature death. thus, the steady increase in the number of cars on public roads is increasing the volume of exhaust gases 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 y e a rs i n e 0 males females economy and sociology 147 december no. 2/2020 and rubber dust from tires, which may lead to cancers and respiratory diseases, but also increases the risk-exposure of being injured in a traffic accident. in the context of avoiding deaths and injuries caused by road accidents, a notable increase in life expectancy may be observed, mostly in males. a considerable diminution of mortality due to traffic accidents is possible in a condition of synergic actions of liable actors towards the approached problem. thus, significant improvements to road infrastructure are needed in order to ensure road safety among traffic participants. besides this, national policies related to traffic mortality diminution must consider existed international experience, which has shown considerable success. references 1. bargan, n. mortalitatea cauzată de accidentele rutiere în republica moldova. in: analele institutului național de cercetări economice. 2016, ediţia a vii-a, nr. i, pp. 99-104. issn 1857-3630, isbn 978-99754326-6-5. 2. bricicaru, i., burlacu, a. the actual stage of the speed management on public roads from 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https://moldova.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/psa_engleza.pdf http://www.statistica.md/pageview.php?l=en&idc=407 https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-011.pdf https://dx.doi.org/10.4054/mpidr-wp-2015-011 https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/326340/9789289051262-%20eng.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/326340/9789289051262-%20eng.pdf?sequence=1&isallowed=y https://www.who.int/data/data-collection-tools/who-mortality-database theoretical and scientifical journal 16 december no. 2/2020 government spending on tourism approached through the prism of consolidating the right to rest and leisure angela secrieru1, habilitation in economics, professor, academy of economic studies of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-02 jel classification: h50, k39, l83, m5, o15, p24, h50, k38, z32 udc: 338.486.6 abstract every person's right to rest and leisure, including reasonable limitation of working hours and periodic holidays with pay, as well as the right to freedom of movement without restriction, except as provided by law, determine the opportunity and necessity of the harmonious development of domestic and international tourism. the harmonious development of domestic and international tourism depends on the quality of public policies designed to stimulate the growth of this sector, especially the public expenditure policy. this paper aims to analyse the impact of tourism regarding the respect for the right to rest, the effectiveness of public policies applied in the field of tourism, especially the public expenditure policy aimed to stimulate tourism, to formulate solutions for the development of the tourism sector in the republic of moldova by strengthening the right to rest. the human development index (hdi) is considered an aggregated indicator with the capacity to more or less consistently quantify the level of respect for economic, social and cultural rights. based on the simple regression method, the relationship between hdi as a dependent variable and travel and tourism sector competitiveness index (ttci) as an independent variable is tested. the presented analysis suggests the conclusion that the quality of respect for the right to rest, materialized, including through tourism, is a factor with a major positive impact on the hdi. an important place in the paper is occupied by the generalization of the eu countries experience in the field of public policies designed to stimulate tourism development approached through the prism of respecting the right to rest and leisure. keywords: human development index, human rights, the right to rest and leisure, public expenditure, tourism, travel and tourism competitiveness index. dreptul fiecăruia la odihnă și timp liber, inclusiv dreptul la o restricție rezonabilă a orelor de muncă și la concediile periodice plătite, precum și dreptul de a circula liber fără restricții, cu excepția celor prevăzute de lege, determină oportunitatea și necesitatea dezvoltării armonioase a turismului intern și internațional. dezvoltarea armonioasă a turismului intern și internațional depinde de calitatea politicilor publice destinate să stimuleze creșterea acestui sector, în special a politicii privind cheltuielile publice. prezenta lucrare urmărește să analizeze impactul turismului asupra respectării dreptului la odihnă și recreație, eficiența politicilor publice aplicate în domeniul turismului, în special a politicii în domeniul cheltuielilor publice destinate stimulării turismului, să formuleze soluții de dezvoltare a sectorului turismului din republica moldova în scopul consolidării respectării dreptului la odihnă și recreație. în calitate de indicator agregat care are capacitatea să cuantifice, mai mult sau mai puțin amplu, nivelul de respectare a drepturilor economice, sociale și culturale este considerat indicele dezvoltării umane (idu). în baza metodei regresiei simple este testată relația dintre idu, în calitate de variabilă dependentă, și indicele competitivității sectorului călătoriilor și turismului în calitate de variabilă independentă. analiza prezentată în lucrare sugerează concluzia conform căreia calitatea respectării dreptului la odihnă, materializat, inclusiv prin practicarea turismului, constituie un factor cu impact pozitiv major asupra idu. un loc important în lucrare îl ocupă generalizarea experienţei ţărilor din ue și parteneriatului estic în domeniul politicilor publice destinate stimulării dezvoltării turismului abordate prin prisma respectării dreptului la odihnă și recreație. cuvinte-cheie: cheltuieli publice, dreptul la odihnă și timp liber, drepturile omului, indicele competitivității sectorului călătoriilor și turismului, indicele dezvoltării umane, turism. 1 id orcid 0000-0002-5782-8840, e-mail: angelasecrieru@yahoo.com mailto:angelasecrieru@yahoo.com economy and sociology 17 december no. 2/2020 право каждого человека на отдых и досуг, включая разумное ограничение рабочего времени и периодические оплачиваемые отпуска, а также право на свободу передвижения без ограничений, за исключением случаев, предусмотренных законом, определяют возможность и необходимость гармоничного развития внутреннего и международного туризма. гармоничное развитие внутреннего и международного туризма зависит от качества государственной политики, направленной на стимулирование роста этого сектора, особенно политики в области государственных расходов. данное исследование направлено на анализ влияния туризма на соблюдение права на отдых и досуг; эффективности государственной политики в сфере туризма, в частности политики государственных расходов, направленной на стимулирование туризма; а также на формулирование предложений для развития туристического сектора в молдове с целью усиления соблюдения право на отдых и досуг. индекс человеческого развития (ичр) рассматривается в качестве совокупного показателя, способного в большей или меньшей степени отражать уровень соблюдения экономических, социальных и культурных прав. на основе метода простой регрессии проверяется взаимосвязь между ичр, как зависимой переменной, и индексом конкурентоспособности сектора путешествий и туризма, как независимой переменной. анализ, представленный в статье, позволяет сделать вывод о том, что качество соблюдения права на отдых и досуг, материализованное, в том числе посредством уровнем развития туристической отрасли, является фактором, оказывающим значительное положительное влияние на ичр. важное место в статье занимает обобщение опыта стран ес и восточного партнерства в области государственной политики, направленной на стимулирование развития туризма, рассматриваемые через призму соблюдения права на отдых и досуг. ключевые слова: государственные расходы, индекс конкурентоспособности путешествий и туризма, индекс человеческого развития, право на отдых и досуг, права человека, туризм. introduction the right to rest and leisure is a right enshrined in the international covenant on economic, social and cultural rights, connected to the right to work. moreover, the right to rest and leisure is included in the universal declaration of human rights. the right to rest and leisure is of fundamental importance for many other rights, including political and civil rights. there is an opinion based on a long-term perspective that leisure time is not a waste of inactive time or a simple absence and recovery from work, being rather necessary for a dignified life, as defined by human rights policies. the right to rest has been linked to a long series of empirical studies on the improvement of the well-being of people globally. every person's right to rest and leisure, including reasonable limitation of working hours and periodic holidays with pay, as well as the right to freedom of movement without restriction, except f provided by law, shall determine the appropriateness and necessity of the harmonious development of domestic and international tourism. the harmonious development of domestic and international tourism depends on the quality of public policies designed to stimulate the growth of this sector. in this respect, the fundamental tool through which the promotion of public policies in the field of tourism is achieved is by means of public finances, in particular public expenditures and the quality of their managem ent. based on these observations and statements, this paper aims to analyse the impact of tourism on respect for the right to rest and leisure, the effectiveness of public poli cies applied in the field of tourism, especially public expenditure policy to stimulate tourism, to formulate solutions for the development of the tourism sector in the republic of moldova in order to strengthen the respect for the right to rest and leisure. literature review a right is a morally and/or legally justified request to have or do something. human rights are the norms that aspire to protect all people everywhere from serious political, legal and social abuses (stanford university, 2019). in an alternate acceptance, human rights are those rights to which all human beings are considered to be entitled only on the basis of their humanity (donnelly, 2003). theoretical and scientifical journal 18 december no. 2/2020 the classification provided by the french lawyer of czech origin karel vašák (vašák, 1977), proposing the concept of three generations of rights, is probably the most practical, frequently used and comprehensive classification of human rights. according to this group, there are three major types of human rights norms: civil and political; socio-economic and collective development. the first two, representing potential claims of individuals to the state, are widely accepted rules identified in international treaties and conventions. the third type, expressing potential demands of peoples and groups towards the state, is the most debated, lacking legal and political recognition. considering this classification, sumner b. twiss specifies two additional subtypes for each of the above types (twiss, 2004), namely: ▪ political and civil rights, including two subtypes: rules on physical and civil security (e.g. without torture, slavery, inhuman treatment, arbitrary arrest and detention; equality under the law) and rules on civil and political freedoms or powers (e.g. freedom of thought, conscience and religion, freedom of assembly and voluntary association); ▪ human socio-economic rights similarly comprising two subtypes: rules on the provision of goods that meet social needs (e.g. nutrition, shelter, health care, education) and rules on the supply of goods that meet economic needs (e.g. fair work and wages, an adequate standard of living, a social security network); ▪ collective rights also encompass two subtypes: the self-determination of peoples (e.g. their political status and economic, social and cultural development) and certain special rights of ethnic and religious minorities (e.g. the right to their own culture, language, the right to manifest one's religion). the universal declaration of human rights, adopted by the united nations general assembly in 1948, is the first un document on human rights that includes civil and political rights, as well as economic, social and cultural rights. in 1966, the general assembly adopted two major separate human rights documents: the international covenant on civil and political rights (iccpr) and the international covenant on economic, social and cultural rights (icescr). the two separate documents were drawn up as a result of western pressure. western countries emphasized the alleged difference in the nature of both categories of rights: civil and political rights could be implemented immediately, while most economic, social and cultural rights could only be implemented progressively. in the vienna declaration and programme of action, adopted by consensus at the world conference on human rights in vienna in 1993, the principle of all human rights being of equal importance has, however, been emphasized. the proclamation of teheran, adopted in 1968 by the international conference on human rights, gave priority to economic, social and cultural rights: "because human rights and fundamental freedoms are indivisible, the full realization of civil and political rights without the effective exercise of economic, social and cultural rights is impossible. making sustainable progress in implementing human rights depends on sound and efficient national and international economic and social development policies.” (un, 1968). there are opinions according to which while human rights should all be placed on the same footing, their implementation should have a well-defined and shared order. in so doing, explicated shared priorities allow states to have a more concrete and attainable implementation plan, serving as both guidance for the states and parameters for the human rights supervisory bodi es. accordingly, this approach might be specifically applicable in case of developing and transitioning states (quintavalla, heine, 2019). the icescr includes the right of every person to work; the right to social security, including social insurance; the right of every person to a standard of living adequate for himself and his family; the right to enjoy the best physical and mental health he can attain; the right to education; the right to participate in cultural life; the right to benefit from scientific progress and its applications in the category of economic, social and cultural rights. at the same time, several rights contained in this international treaty define the right to work. thus, the right to work includes: the right that any person has to obtain the possibility to earn a living through a freely chosen or accepted work; the right of every person to the enjoyment of fair and favourable conditions of work economy and sociology 19 december no. 2/2020 and to ensure the following: a fair wage and equal remuneration for work of equal value witho ut distinction; a decent existence for the employee and family; work safety and hygiene; equal opportunity for all to be promoted in their workplace to an appropriate higher category, taking into account only the duration of the services performed and the skills; rest, free time, rational limitation of working hours and paid periodic leave, as well as the remuneration of holidays; the right of every person to the favouring and protection of economic interests, the right to form trade unions, together with other persons and to join a trade union of his choice; the right to strike. therefore, the right to rest and leisure is a right highlighted in the icescr, related to the right to work. moreover, the right to rest and leisure is also included in the universal declaration of human rights (article 24: "everyone has the right to rest and leisure, including reasonable limitation of working hours and periodic holidays with pay"). this right is considered one of the primary (but not only) workers’ rights constructed to meet challenges posed by the industrial revolution, the resulting new global economy and the first world war (richards, carbonetti , 2012). the right to rest and leisure is of fundamental importance for many other rights, including political and civil rights. awareness of the leisure-related human rights universality could assist leisure studies to become a more globally connected field of research (veal, 2015). there is an opinion based on a long-term perspective that leisure time is not a waste of inactive time or a simple absence and recovery from work, being necessary, rather, for a dignified life, as defined for human rights. the right to rest has been linked to a long series of empirical studies on the global improvement of the population’s well-being. it is relevant to mention that in this context, well-being includes both aspects that define eudaimonic happiness, a concept that means, according to modern psychology, the individual's ability to fully update his personal potential, and those that explain hedonic well-being (happiness and/or subjective satisfaction) having the possibility to be achieved through respect for economic, social and cultural rights. moreover, the positive effect of leisure time on cognitive and behavioural ability related to general mechanisms of psychological adaptation, including constructive recovery from negative life events, free expression and creative ability, providing the necessary environment for human development and self-actualization, happiness, the general satisfaction of life has been demonstrated. the field of recreational therapy called free time "the correct purpose, from a moral point of view, of recreational therapy" and invoked its primordiality as a human right. data sources and used methods considering the theoretical-scientific point of view, the research was carried out in the context of the complex and systemic approach of contemporary economic and social concepts. an important role in the paper is offered to the generalization of the experience of e u and eastern partnership countries in the field of public policies designed to stimulate the development of tourism approached through the prism of respecting the right to rest and leisure. the research is based on established approaches in the field of human rights, in particular economic, social and cultural rights, with a basic focus on the right to rest and leisure. the relationship between tourism and rest periods is being considered. the complexity of the studied social, economic and financial phenomena required the use of statistical methods, namely the simple regression method. at the same time, the comparative analysis was also used. applying the simple regression method, the hdi was selected as a dependent variable. hdi is a statistic composite index that measures key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life (measured by life expectancy); access to education (measured by expected years of schooling of children at school-entry age and mean years of schooling of the adult population); and a decent standard of living (measured by gross national income per capita adjusted for the price level of the country). the hdi is considered an aggregate performance indicator that has the capacity to quantify, more or less consistently, the level of respect for economic, social and cultural rights. tourism is representing one of the ways to achieve the right to rest and, through it – a premise for updating and developing people's personal potential, has the strength to contribute to increasing the value of hdi. theoretical and scientifical journal 20 december no. 2/2020 the ttci was identified as an independent variable. the ttci compares the competitiveness of the travel and tourism sector in 140 economies. the index is developed under the world economic forum's aviation, travel and tourism industry program. the results of the index measurement are reflected in the report on the competitiveness of the travel and tourism sector. the ttci consists of 4 sub-indexes, 14 pillars and 90 individual indicators. the value of ttci and its components can vary from 1 to 7 (best level). ttci is considered one of the synthetic indicators that characterizes the development of the tourism sector and is examined with reference to the republic of moldova in the paper. the application of the simple regression method aims to identify the existence of dependence between idu and ttci, in order to ultimately formulate the conclusion on the impact of public spending policy aimed at stimulating tourism on the level of respect for economic, social and cultural rights, in particular on the right to rest and recreation. results of own research and discussions every person’s right to rest and leisure, including reasonable limitation of working hours and periodic holidays with pay, and the right to freedom of movement without restriction (le gis 1948), except as provided by law determines the opportunity and necessity for harmonious development of domestic and international tourism. the relationship between tourism and rest periods can be explained based on figure 1. depending on the category of the rest period, the arrangements for the use of leisure time and the corresponding activities are established. it is therefore noticed that the daily free time is used for self-training, fun activities and meetings. free time on weekends will be used for tourism, sports activities, watching shows, etc. the annual rest leave is especially intended for tourism, balneary treatments, cultural purposes, etc. (ioncica, 2003). figure 1. rest periods source: (ilo, 2015). from the above mentioned, tourism is among the ways to achieve the right to rest and, thereby – a premise for updating and developing the people's personal potential, tourism has also the power to contribute to increasing the value of the hdi. in this sense, figure 2, based on a number of 138 countries, highlights this interdependence by representing the hdi reliance on the quality of tourism development measured using the ttci. this index summarizes the set of factors and policies, including public expenditure policies, that enable the sustainable development of the travel and tourism sector, reflecting the role and quality of active leisure. coffee break meal break coffee break workday breaks 8 / 10 /12 hours 10 / 11 / 12 /… hours daily rest 24 hours week-end (1/1,5/2 days weekly rest 7 days annual leave annual leave 12 month economy and sociology 21 december no. 2/2020 figure 2. human development index and tourism competitiveness index relationship (2019) source: developed by the author based on (undp, 2019; weforum, 2019). as may be observed in figure 2, the ttci strongly and positively influences the hdi. this finding suggests the conclusion that the quality of respect for the right to rest, materialized, including through tourism, is a factor with a major positive impact on hdi. the harmonious development of domestic and international tourism depends on the quality of public policies designed to stimulate the growth of this sector. in this respect, the basic instrument through which the promotion of public policies in the field of tourism is achieved is public finances, in particular public expenditures and the quality of their management. next, the development of the tourism sector in the republic of moldova is evaluated in terms of the quality of public expenditure management for this field. as follows in figure 3, in the case of the republic of moldova, the 3.3 ttci score determines the rank of the country on the 103rd position (out of the 144 countries evaluated in the report on the competitiveness of the travel and tourism sector). thus, the republic of moldova is less competitive in terms of tourism compared to the vast majority of former socialist countries. in this respect, the most successful are croatia (ranking 27), slovenia (36), russia (39) and poland (42). figure 3. tourism competitiveness index 2019: overall rankings and scores source: developed by the author based on (weforum, 2019). 1 2 3 79 71 45 38 27 46 68 80 110 53 59 103 42 56 39 60 36 78 48 104 5,4 5,4 5,4 3,7 3,8 4,2 4,3 4,5 4,2 3,9 3,7 3,2 4 4 3,3 4,2 4 4,3 4 4,3 3,7 4,2 3,3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 s p a n ia f ra n ța g e rm a n ia a rm e n ia a z e rb a id ja n b u lg a ri a c e h ia c ro a ți a e st o n ia g e o rg ia k a z a h st a n k â rg â z st a n l e to n ia l it u a n ia m o ld o v a p o lo n ia r o m â n ia r u si a s lo v a c ia s lo v e n ia u c ra in a u n g a ri a t a d ji k is ta n v a lo a r e a / s c o r ep o z iț ia / r a n k poziția / rank valoarea / score y = 0,1789x + 0,0503 r² = 0,7311 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 1,1 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 5,5 6h u m a n d e v e lo p m e n t in d e x (h d i) travel and tourism competitiveness index (ttci) republic of moldova theoretical and scientifical journal 22 december no. 2/2020 the causes that explain the unsatisfactory level of the ttci in the situation of the republic of moldova are derived from the state of the component elements of this indicator. in this regard, referring to the ttci pillars, the most unfavourable situation is in the case of the following parameters: "cultural resources and business travel" (the republic of moldova registers the score 1.2, the maximum possible score being 7), "natural resources" (1.7), 'air transport infrastructure' (2.1), 'land and port infrastructure' (2.6), 'tourist services infrastructure' (2.9). the underdevelopment of the tourism sector conditions the modest contribution of this sector to the formation of the gross domestic product of the republic of moldova (figure 4). thus, compared to some former socialist countries, the republic of moldova has the lowest share of tourism in gdp. figure 4. travel and tourism contribution to gdp, 2018 (%) source: developed by the author based on (worldbank, 2019). the contribution of tourism to employment being, at the same time, a consequence, but also a substantive condition of the level of development of this sector, that registers, in the case of the republic of moldova, the lowest score among the countries included in the analysis represented in figure 5. figure 5. travel and tourism contribution to employment, 2018 (% of total employment) source: developed by the author based on (worldbank, 2019). the travel and tourism (tt) policy sub-index and stimulatory conditions, which are among the four components of the ttci, include specific policies or strategic issues that most directly 16,24 15,14 6,18 11,25 7,61 25,15 15,48 31,29 9,39 4,92 3,32 4,53 5,37 6,42 12,25 5,97 7,98 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 a rm e n ia a z e rb a id ja n b e la ru s b u lg a ri a c e h ia c ro a ți a e st o n ia g e o rg ia l e to n ia l it u a n ia m o ld o v a p o lo n ia r o m â n ia s lo v a c ia s lo v e n ia u c ra in a u n g a ri a 14,42 13,78 5,88 10,53 9,22 23,41 15,5 27,29 9,2 4,83 2,93 4,53 6,4 6,23 12,71 5,35 7,39 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 a rm e n ia a z e rb a id ja n b e la ru s b u lg a ri a c e h ia c ro a ți a e st o n ia g e o rg ia l e to n ia l it u a n ia m o ld o v a p o lo n ia r o m â n ia s lo v a c ia s lo v e n ia u c ra in a u n g a ri a economy and sociology 23 december no. 2/2020 influence the tt industry. in turn, this sub-index is based on 4 pillars: tt prioritization, international openness, price competitiveness and environmental sustainability. the efficiency of public finance policies, including those related to public expenditure is reflected by the pillar – the prioritization of tt. this pillar estimates the extent to which the government gives priority to the tt sector, influencing the competitiveness of the tt. by clearly stating that the sector is of primary concern, the government can channel funds to essential development projects and coordinate the players and resources required to develop the sector. signalling the stability of government policy can affect the sector's ability to continue to attract private investment. the government can also play an important role in attracting tourists directly through national marketing campaigns. this pillar includes measures in respect of government spending, the effectiveness of marketing campaigns and country branding, as well as the completeness and actuality of providing tt data to international organizations, as this establishes the importance a country attaches to its tt sector. figure 6 indicates the position of the republic of moldova compared to the group of countries included in the analysis. regarding the quality of travel and tourism policies estimated in the report on tourism competitiveness (2019 edition), the republic of moldova, gaining a score of 3,7 thus occupying the position 117, stays well behind both eu and some of eastern partnership countries (armenia, azerbaijan, georgia, ukraine). among eu countries most successful in this regard there are malta and cyprus. among the eastern partnership countries, georgia is the best positioned (28th), suggesting that it promotes the most appropriate government policy to increase the competitiveness of the tt sector compared to the other countries in this bloc of countries. figure 6. prioritization of travel & tourism: sub-index score (1 worst; 7 best) and country rank (in brackets) source: developed by the author based on (weforum, 2019). public spending policy is one of the most important components of government travel and tourism policy. from figure 7 it turns out that the republic of moldova, registering a share of tourism expenditures of 3.3% from total public expenditures, occupies position 67 in the total of 140 countries evaluated in the report on the competitiveness of tourism (2019 edition). this value is thus comparable to that recorded by bulgaria, azerbaijan, latvia, lithuania, georgia. the highest values are recorded by the seychelles, the dominican republic and jamaica. in the budgetary classification, tourism is comprised in the functional subgroup 0473, the following categories of expenditures being covered from the sources of the national public budget: 4,7 5 4,7 6,2 4,3 4,9 6,1 5,4 5,2 6,2 4,6 4,3 3,7 4,2 6,1 4,1 4,3 6,1 5,1 6 4,3 5,1 6,2 5,9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 armenia (74) azerbaidjan (49) bulgaria (67) jamaica (2) cehia (90) croația (57) singapore (6) estonia (20) georgia (28) cipru (3) letonia (77) lituania (89) r. moldova (117) polonia (98) islanda (4) românia (101) slovacia (95) mauritius (5) slovenia (33) r. dominicană (7) ucraina (92) ungaria (35) malta (1) spania (8) theoretical and scientifical journal 24 december no. 2/2020 ▪ administration of services in the field of tourism, promotion and development of tourism, ensuring the connection with transport services, hotels and restaurants and with other fields that benefit from the result of tourism development; ▪ management of tourist offices in the country and from abroad, organization of tourism marketing/advertising campaigns, production and dissemination of literature to promote tourism. figure 7. government spending on travel and tourism service (% of total government budget) source: developed by the author based on (weforum, 2019). the data contained in figure 7 contrasted with those of figure 4 generates the conclusion about the inefficiency of public spending on tourism. considering a comparable level of public spending on tourism in gdp with bulgaria, azerbaijan, latvia, lithuania and georgia, the republic of moldova has a contribution of this sector in gdp well below the contribution of the tourism sector in the countries concerned. also of interest is the dynamics of public expenditures for tourism in the republic of moldova. thus, figure 8 shows a fluctuating evolution of the ratio between public spending on tourism and gdp. after the decline in public funding of this sector in the 2011-2014 period, during the 2015-2018 time segment there is a very modest increase in public funding. the conclusion that requires to be formulated based on figure 8 is that, although, according to law no. 352 of 24.11.2006 on the organization and development of tourism in the republic of moldova, tourism is qualified as a priority area of the national economy, the public financing policy of this sector is inconsistent and does not induce stability and sustainability. figure 8. government spending on travel and tourism service (% of gdp) source: developed by the author based on (worldbank, 2019). 1 2 3 71 120 110 67 111 101 83 100 22,6 22,3 17,3 3,8 3,2 3,3 3,7 1,4 8,4 3,4 4,2 1,9 3,2 3,2 3,3 2,8 1,9 2,7 2,2 4,4 5,6 5,3 2,9 8,1 6,5 5,9 5,2 4,3 3,6 3 2,2 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 s e y c h e ll e s r e p . d o m in ic a n ă ja m a ic a a rm e n ia a z e rb a id ja n b u lg a ri a c e h ia c ro a ți a e st o n ia g e o rg ia k a z a h st a n k â rg â z st a n l e to n ia l it u a n ia m o ld o v a p o lo n ia r o m â n ia r u si a s lo v a c ia s lo v e n ia u c ra in a u n g a ri a t a d ji k is ta n g re c ia s p a n ia n o rv e g ia s u a c a n a d a g e rm a n ia f ra n ța s u e d ia v a lo a r e a / s c o r e , % p o z iț ia / r a n k poziția / rank valoarea / score 0,070 0,071 0,066 0,067 0,060 0,062 0,062 0,067 0,068 0,058 0,060 0,062 0,064 0,066 0,068 0,070 0,072 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 economy and sociology 25 december no. 2/2020 a consequence of this public policy is the dynamic development of imports on the market of tourist services of the republic of moldova. however, this cannot be said about the export of tourist services. according to the data presented in table 1a of the annexes, the outbound tourism exceeded in 2019 by the number of tourists-days the inbound tourism more than 33 times. the inefficiency of public policy in the field of tourism is observed even more strongly from the analysis of the dynamics of domestic tourism: when it does not stagnate, it faces obvious regresses (in 2016, 2017 and 2019 domestic tourism). this is mainly explained by the "price to quality" ratio, which is not in favour of the domestic tourism industry. at the same time, from the point of view of the right to rest and leisure, domestic tourism is of particular importance. thus, domestic tourism is a suitable solution for rest and leisure during weekends. simultaneously, domestic tourism must be an affordable solution for people with incomes below the average level. the effectiveness with which public expenditures for tourism development are being carried out can be approached in terms of two dimensions: allocative efficiency and technical efficiency. taking into account the pronounced limited public financial resources available to the national public budget of the republic of moldova, allocative efficiency is of particular importance. allocative efficiency is determined by the capacity of the public authority responsible for tourism development in the republic of moldova (tourism agency/investment agency) to establish priorities in tourism development, to distribute resources according to the identified priorities and effectiveness of programs and to redirect resources from achieved objectives to setting new ones, or from less productive activities to those with higher productivity. in its turn, technical or operational efficiency in the using of available budgetary resources for tourism development refers to the ability of the tourism agency/investment agency to implement programs in the field and to provide services at the lowest cost. until 2018, the central administrative authority responsible for promoting public policy in the field of tourism in the republic of moldova was the tourism agency. in 2018, it was reorganized by merging with the investment agency of the republic of moldova, the latter having the mission to contribute to the economic growth by increasing the level of foreign investment, increasing the volume of exports and developing the tourism industry. at the same time, the frequent change of governments in the republic of moldova with the application of various approaches each time on the reform of the central public administration have affected, among other things, the efficiency of spending public money for the development of the tourism branch. the shortcomings in the management of public expenditures aimed for tourism with an impact on the allocative efficiency are pointed out further: inadequate prioritization of the directions of tourism development in conditions of very limited financial resources. the tourism sector in the republic of moldova faces a number of pronounced impediments. these include a lack of adequate skills in the tourism workforce, relatively underdeveloped land, river and air transport networks, and declining price competitiveness. although the “tourism 2020” tourism development strategy has largely identified these shortcomings, formulating an extensive list of actions to overcome them, the problems mentioned above have not been addressed, remaining current and ongoing. consequently, at a level comparable to public expenditure on tourism in gdp with bulgaria, azerbaijan, latvia, lithuania și georgia, the republic of moldova has a contribution of this sector to gdp well below the contribution to the tourism sector in those countries. the government fails in applying an integrated approach to tourism development in the republic of moldova based on the efficient exploration of interdependencies, synergies and trade-offs between the tourism industry and other related sectors and activities. as a result, significant benefits and savings in financial resources are being missed. in the strategic documents that establish the direction of long-term tourism sector development in the republic of moldova, tourism is not treated as a solution for strengthening the right to rest and leisure. in turn, the technical efficiency of public expenditures for tourism sector development has been severely affected by numerous management gaps, which have been identified and published several times in the reports by the court of accounts of the republic of moldova. theoretical and scientifical journal 26 december no. 2/2020 thus, although it appears as an action to be implemented in the "tourism 2020" strategy, so far the management of the national brand portfolio is not ensured in good conditions. in fact, according to the court of accounts of moldova, it is not even recorded in the accounting records. consequently, due to the fact that the necessary activities regarding the monitoring and control over the legality of the use of brands by third party users are not carried out, the republic of moldova faces potential failed revenues and financial losses related to the reckless use of tourist brands. so far, the tourist heritage register has not been established, which creates premises for missing economic opportunities/benefits and disadvantages the development of the tourism sector. at the same time, the technical efficiency at the level of the central authority responsible for tourism sector development is compromised by an internal control system that is not properly organized, the existence of distorted information in the accounting and financial statements, compromising the inventory of assets and liabilities, the existence of expenses illegally supported. in compliance with the shortcomings outlined above, the following solutions could, in our opinion, improve the efficiency of public expenditure management for tourism: it is of strong necessity to conduct research in the field of tourism in order to identify common interests or synergies between the investment agency, responsible for the development of tourism sector in the republic of moldova and other related public authorities. this task could include the conducting of a cross-sectoral policy mapping exercise that would systematically assess the interdependencies between multiple policy sectors, actors and organizations directly or indirectly interested in tourism sector development. the implementation of institutional arrangements to establish and harness policy synergies to the full extent for the development of tourism sector. in this regard, it is necessary to improve the collaboration between different ministries and government agencies, the exchange of knowledge and the awareness and common understanding of the benefits and disadvantages of policy synergies. this could involve the creation of communication forums and cross-sectoral discussions. the integration of the right to rest and leisure in the strategic documents that regulate the perspective development of the tourism sector. in this context it is necessary to address issues related to the impact of tourism on the quality of life in the republic of moldova, the inclusion and accessibility of disadvantaged categories of the population to the tourism products and services. at the same time, the integration of human rights in the public budget process and the efficient management of public expenditures in order to strengthen escr is a solution for consolidating the right to rest and leisure, the latter being strongly connected to the level of tourism sector development. improving financial management and its components (asset and liability management, public revenue and expenditure management, internal control systems development, etc.) within the investment agency. conclusions research carried out in this article brings out the following conclusions: everyone’s right to rest and leisure emphasizes the opportunity and necessity for the harmonious development of domestic and international tourism depends on the quality of public policies designed to stimulate the growth of this sector. the basic tool for promoting public policies in the field of tourism is public finances, especially public expenditure and the quality of public finance management. the level of respect for the escr measured by the hdi is strongly associated with the level of development of the tourism sector assessed using the ttci. therefore, tourism being one of the ways to achieve the right to rest and leisure and, by means of it – a premise for updating and developing people’s personal potential, has the power to contribute to increasing the value of hdi. the following shortcomings affect the sound management of public spending on tourism development: inadequate prioritization of the directions of tourism development in conditions of very limited financial resources; government’s failure in applying an integrated approach to tourism development based on the efficient exploration of interdependencies, synergies and trade-offs between the tourism industry and other related sectors and activities; in the strategic documents that establish the direction of long-term tourism sector development tourism is not treated as a solution for strengthening the right to rest and leisure; reduced technical efficiency of public spending on economy and sociology 27 december no. 2/2020 tourism due to inadequate financial management within the tourism agency/investment agency. the efficiency of public spending on tourism can be improved by applying the following solutions: conducting a research in the field of tourism to identify common interests or synergies between the investment agency, responsible for the development of tourism sector in the republic of moldova and other related public authorities; implementation of institutional arrangements for establishing and harnessing on policy synergies to the full for the development of tourism sector; integration to the right to rest and leisure in the strategic documents that regulate the perspective development of the tourism sector; integration of human rights in the public budget process and public expenditures management in order to strengthen the right to rest and leisure, the latter being strongly connected to the level of tourism sector development; improving financial management within the investment agency. annex table 1a. tourist activity of travel agencies and tour operators in the republic of moldova 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 to u ri st s a n d e x cu rs io n is ts to u ri st sd a y s to u ri st s a n d e x cu rs io n is ts to u ri st sd a y s to u ri st s a n d e x cu rs io n is ts to u ri st sd a y s to u ri st s a n d e x cu rs io n is ts to u ri st sd a y s to u ri st s a n d e x cu rs io n is ts to u ri st sd a y s total 242559 1688546 234217 1558192 284953 2046642 323468 2130052 376625 2408548 inbound tourism1, total 15514 44472 15668 46920 17497 55523 19276 58204 19848 60993 of which, for the purpose of: rest, leisure and recreation 10097 22527 11454 28010 13706 35505 15835 40827 16928 43874 business 4196 13123 3062 9438 3002 10392 2857 9781 2358 9967 treatment 488 6609 606 7828 789 9626 584 7596 562 7152 other purposes 733 2213 546 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https://8838d4ed-8442-4a58-9e20-e8b43c5a8621.filesusr.com/ugd/ce8222_b6df9b2bc85044fc8b06ccdac9fddf0c.pdf https://www.univeur.org/cuebc/downloads/pdf%20carte/67.%20sofia.pdf file:///c:/users/angela.catana/desktop/iulita_es_nr.2_2020/%20doi:%20https:/doi.org/10.1111/j.0384-9694.2004.00154.x https://legal.un.org/avl/pdf/ha/fatchr/final_act_of_tehranconf.pdf http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking https://doi.org/10.1080/16078055.2015.108127 http://reports.weforum.org/travel-and-tourism-competitiveness-report-2019/country-profiles/ http://www3.weforum.org/docs/wef_ttcr_2019.pdf https://tcdata360.worldbank.org/ theoretical and scientifical journal 74 no. 1 / 2020 methodological approach to the elaboration of indicators for quantifying the competitiveness of goods tatiana gutium 1, phd student, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-07 jel classification: c13, c43, o20 udc: 339.137.24 abstract the period of temporary economic isolation caused by the covid-19 pandemic has affected the economies of all countries in the world. after quarantine and the gradual restoration of the activity of all economic sectors, competition in the world market will intensify. countries will promote strategies for economic growth, improving economic security, increasing exports, and protecting domestic producers. given the fact that resources are limited and exhaustible, it is necessary to correctly identify priority sectors when developing strategies. for this purpose, the competitiveness index can be used, since competitiveness is one of the main characteristics that allows anyone to determine its position on the market, and increasing competitiveness ensures victory in the competition. the novelty and purpose of the study is to develop two new integral indices, and to improve one symmetric index of comparative advantage developed earlier. some of empirical and theoretical methods were used in this research: abstraction, the method of ascending from the abstract to the concrete, comparison, measurement, analysis and synthesis, economic and mathematical modelling. to identify priority sectors, the author used the developed indices to assess the competitiveness of goods, not only on the foreign market, but also on the domestic market. this study can serve economists as a tool for assessing the competitiveness of goods, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the goods offered, in the context of developing measures to increase competitiveness, which will increase the profitability of entrepreneurship. keywords: competitiveness of goods, integral index, symmetrical index of comparative advantage, internal market, foreign market, monofactorial models, bifactorial models, republic of moldova. perioada de izolare economică temporară, cauzată de pandemia covid-19, a afectat economiile tuturor țărilor lumii. după ieșirea din carantină și restabilirea treptată a tuturor domeniilor economice, se va acutiza concurența pe piața mondială. țările vor promova strategii de creștere economică, sporire a securității economice, majorare a exportului, protejare a producătorului autohton. ținând cont de faptul, că resursele sunt limitate și epuizabile, la elaborarea strategiilor este necesar corect de determinat ramurile prioritare. în acest scop, poate fi utilizat indicele competitivității, deoarece, anume competitivitatea este una din caracteristicele de bază, care permite determinarea poziției pe piață, iar sporirea competitivității asigură victorie în lupta concurențială. noutatea și scopul cercetării constă în elaborarea a doi indici integrali noi, și îmbunătățirea unui indice simetric al avantajului comparativ elaborat anterior. în studiul dat au fost utilizate următoarele metode empirice și teoretice: abstractizarea, metoda ascensiunii de la abstract la concret, comparația, măsurarea, analiza și sinteza, modelarea economico-matematică. în scopul determinării ramurilor prioritare, autorul a utilizat indicii elaborați la estimarea competitivității bunurilor nu numai pe piața externă, dar și pe piața internă. studiul dat poate servi ca instrumentariu pentru economiști la estimarea competitivității bunurilor, depistarea punctelor tari și slabe ale bunurilor oferite, în contextul elaborării măsurilor de sporire a competitivității, care ar asigura majorarea profitabilității activității de antreprenoriat. cuvinte-cheie: competitivitatea bunurilor, indice integral, indice simetric al avantajului comparativ, piața internă, piața externă, modele monofactoriale, modele bifactoriale, republica moldova. 1 © tatiana gutium, gutium.tatiana1@gmail.com economy and sociology 75 no. 1 / 2020 период временной экономической изоляции, вызванной пандемией covid-19, затронул экономики всех стран мира. после карантина и постепенного восстановления деятельности всех экономических секторов, конкуренция на мировом рынке усилится. страны будут продвигать стратегии экономического роста, повышения экономической безопасности, увеличения экспорта, защиты отечественного производителя. учитывая тот факт, что ресурсы ограничены и исчерпаемы, необходимо правильно определить приоритетные отрасли при разработке стратегий. для этой цели может быть использован индекс конкурентоспособности, так как, именно конкурентоспособность является одной из основных характеристик, которая позволяет определить позицию на рынке, а повышение конкурентоспособности обеспечивает победу в конкурентной борьбе. новизна и цель исследования состоит в разработке двух новых интегральных индексов, и усовершенствовании одного симметричного индекса сравнительного преимущества разработаного ранее. в этом исследовании использовались следующие эмпирические и теоретические методы: абстракция, метод восхождения от абстрактного к конкретному, сравнение, измерение, анализ и синтез, экономико-математическое моделирование. для определения приоритетных отраслей, автор использовал разработанные индексы для оценки конкурентоспособности товаров, не только на внешнем рынке, но и на внутреннем рынке. данное исследование может служить для экономистов в качестве инструментария оценки конкурентоспособности товаров, выявления сильных и слабых сторон предлагаемых товаров, в контексте разработки мер по повышению конкурентоспособности, которые обеспечат повышение прибыльности предпринимательства. ключевые слова: конкурентоспособность товара, интегральный индекс, симметричный индекс сравнительного преимущества, внутренний рынок, внешний рынок, однофакторные модели, двухфакторные модели, республика молдова. introduction 2020 is a difficult year. world economies are waiting for an economic crisis. in order to withstand the conditions of reduction of payments in the state budget, increasing unemployment and decreasing the solvency of the population, countries will have to pursue a policy of protecting domestic producers. moldova's economy is more vulnerable than the economy of trading partners. in order to withstand the conditions of political and economic instability, this year’s natural cataclysms, reduction of remittances, technical unemployment during the covid-19 pandemic, decreasing of population incomes, moldova should reassess its resources, make rational decisions in the field of financial support and correctly identify priority sectors, produce and offer competitive products on both domestic and foreign markets. therefore, it is relevant to develop indices that would allow the quantification of the competitiveness of domestic goods depending on several factors; and these indices can be used to identify the priority branches of industry. the purpose of the research is to develop indicators to assess the competitiveness of domestic goods in the internal and external markets, which would take into account the factors influencing competitiveness, based on the availability of statistical data. methods of the study are the index method, economic and mathematical modelling. this study is a continuation of the author's research previously published in following articles:  quantifying the comparative advantage of domestic goods on the internal market. in: the journal contemporary economy. 2018, volume 3, issue 1.  classification of the competitiveness’ factors and new approaches to assessing the competitiveness. in: economy and sociology. 2018, no. 2. the novelty of this study consists in the elaboration of two integral indices of competitiveness, one for estimating the competitiveness of domestic goods on the internal market, the second for quantifying the competitiveness of goods on the external market and determining the priority branches of industry. the scientific approach of the topic in the literature the competitiveness of goods can be calculated using a comparative advantage index or an integral index. the research objectives are to improve the first index and to develop the second one. theoretical and scientifical journal 76 no. 1 / 2020 the object of study of most domestic and foreign economists is the competitiveness of the enterprise and not the competitiveness of goods. as the main objective of trade policy is to promote goods on the external market, research is mainly carried out on the competitiveness of goods on this market, but there are very few studies on the competitiveness of goods on the internal market. this trend created the following situation: despite the fact that the republic of moldova is an agricultural country, for some goods it partially lost its own market, and the share of imports of tomatoes, cucumbers, other agricultural products and foodstuffs is gradually increasing. the countries of origin of these products are turkey, ukraine, romania, poland, belarus, northern macedonia, but not moldova. the competitiveness indices cited in the scientific literature assess the comparative advantages of goods, especially on the external market (balassa et al. 1989; group 1994; dalum et al. 1998; siggel 2006; berkowitz et al. 2006; hidalgo et al. 2007; yu et al. 2009; hausmann et al. 2011; costinot et al. 2012; barter 2014). on the other hand, as mentioned, the assessment of goods’ competitiveness on the internal market is neglected. moldavian economists argue that the main methods of quantifying competitiveness are the differential and complex methods. in case of the differential method, the competitiveness is evaluated “as the ratio between the values of the parameter of the analyzed goods and of the commodity taken as a basis of comparison. as a parameter there can be used price, production and sales cost, indices of goods quality, such as reliability, durability, maintainability” (popa et al. 2017: 80). the calculation of competitiveness based on specific indices has both advantages and disadvantages. the advantage of the described method is that it allows to identify the competitive advantages of the studied object, and the deficiency of the differential method is that the assessment of competitiveness in relation to one parameter is not representative. therefore, it is necessary to use this method together with a complex method. the complex method consists in calculating group indicators for regulatory, technical, economic parameters and an integrated index of goods’ competitiveness (popa et al. 2017: 80-81; safiullin et al. 2008: 84-85). this method is often used, but it is also not perfect. a significant shortcoming of the complex method is that consumer preferences are not taken into account. in addition to the mentioned methods, there is a third method – the mixed method, which consists in combining specific and integral indices. all these methods contain common shortcomings:  they do not take into account that the world economy is constantly changing and new factors appear to influence competitiveness;  product life cycle phases are not taken into account;  insufficiency of the information base. a comparative analysis of competitiveness assessment methods used in the research of modern scientists has shown that both simplified indicators and complex models are used. an example of a simplified method is one based on the calculation of the ratio of quality and price (safiullin et al. 2008: 83): j j j p c k  (1) where: kj – the competitiveness coefficient of goods j; cj – the quality of goods j; pj – the price of goods j. „the goods with an optimal ratio of these characteristics are the most competitive” (safiullin et al. 2008: 83). the complex models developed in recently published scientific papers relate to assessing competitiveness at the sector, enterprise level, in the context of promoting economic policy, but not competitiveness of goods:  michael peneder’s iceberg model (peneder 2017:839);  iqcp model (innovation, quality, competitiveness and performance) (al-shuaibi 2016:101). economy and sociology 77 no. 1 / 2020 however, these models can be adapted to assess the goods’ competitiveness. according to the iceberg model, the main goal (the tip of the iceberg) is productivity, because „this indicator is able to aggregate the influence of many relevant variables” (peneder 2017:838). in the author's opinion, the idea underlying the development of this model can be used to estimate the competitiveness of the goods, it is only necessary to select those indicators that are relevant and reflect factors affecting the competitiveness of the goods. evidence that the reasoning of michael peneder can be used not only to assess competitiveness at the mesoeconomic level, but also at the microeconomic (commodity) level, can be provided by the following cause-effect relationships:  an increase of labor productivity leads to a decrease of production cost and price, so the commodity becomes more competitive;  the increase in labor productivity can be achieved through the use of advanced technologies, innovations, therefore, in addition to increasing labor efficiency, there is an increase in the quality of goods, which is one of the factors of competitiveness. symmetric index of the comparative advantage of the domestic good on the internal market: improvement and application taking as a basis the previously developed algorithm (gutium 2018:41-42) and modifying it, eliminating the discovered shortcomings caused by the instability of trade rela tions that leads to a significant increase of stocks of goods, the author obtained the calculation formula described in equations 2 and 3. for example, the share of changes in stocks of canned vegetables and fruits in the volume of production and the volume of imports amounted to 52.9% in 2017, and in 2018 it was only 18.3%.                   n i i iiii i ii l i h ii n i d i i iiii i ii l i h ii d ise i mmcsxxqqqq mmcsxxqqqq icad s e s e 11 (2) %100 1 1     se i se ise i icad icad sicad (3) where: s e d i q – volume of demand for goods i on the domestic market, taking into account the shadow economy; se i icad – index of comparative advantages of goods i on the domestic market (in relation to imported one, taking into account the shadow economy); se i sicad – symmetrical index of comparative advantages of goods i on the domestic market; l i h ii qqq ,, – production volume of goods i, hidden production (h), lohn production (l); i ii xx , – export of goods i, illegal (i) export; i cs – change in stocks of goods i; i ii mm , – import of goods i, illegal (i) import. the following sources of information were used to calculate se i sicad :  production in natural expression by types of products;  indicators regarding the circulation of industrial production in the republic of moldova competitiveness;  retail trade by type of goods;  harvest of main agricultural crops;  harvest of fruits, berries and grapes;  production of main animal products;  volume of export and import by types of products; etc. volumes of hidden production, illegal import and illegal export in the goods division were theoretical and scientifical journal 78 no. 1 / 2020 calculated on the basis of the adapted inter-branch model (gutium 2018: 41-42). the author used equation 3 to assess the competitiveness of more than 200 goods on the domestic market for 20142019. table 1 shows the results of calculations for some goods. the analysis of the dynamics of the comparative advantage index in the goods division showed that wheat, meslin, barley, oats, corn, sorghum grains, other grains are competitive on the domestic market. in recent years, the comparative advantages of both wheat and wheat flour have increased (table 1). table 1 symmetrical index of comparative advantages of goods on the domestic market 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* wheat, meslin, barley, oats, corn, sorghum grains, other grains 38,06 36,74 36,58 35,15 37,33 38,01* wheat or meslin flour 26,87 26,60 16,34 21,62 23,56 24,00* vegetables, fresh or chilled 33,87 30,64 30,54 30,70 29,81 29,73* milk and cream, without or with added sugar or other sweetening matter 30,71 30,81 25,08 20,71 25,62 26,31* cheese 26,60 27,99 26,81 -46,82 -36,45 37,46* sunflower-seed oil and its fractions 32,01 30,68 30,80 23,97 26,81 27,00* sausages and similar products, of meat, meat offal or blood 38,08 37,20 37,11 35,52 37,79 35,97* beet sugar and chemically pure sucrose, in solid state 36,17 36,09 13,99 17,77 30,53 33,10* centrifugal pumps -97,22 -96,39 -99,81 -93,87 -95,86 96,43* woodworking machine tools -100,0 -93,57 -86,25 -100,0 -99,74 99,80* wool yarn 37,61 36,35 34,02 32,72 32,54 32,59* carpets and other floor coverings -41,29 -46,68 -36,14 -57,69 -49,00 53,90* stockings, socks and the like -70,81 -71,71 -68,49 -73,60 -77,50 78,12* footwear -64,95 -50,14 -48,88 -52,88 -47,40 48,41* natural sands 38,83 37,42 36,25 35,49 37,82 36,74* cement 38,23 30,37 30,44 32,97 34,31 34,60* lime for construction -95,61 -85,56 -95,63 -82,63 -93,80 93,85* registers, account books, notebooks, order books, receipt books, letter pads, diaries and similar articles 20,38 15,28 23,69 12,46 8,93 5,88* organic surface-active agents (other than soap); surface-active preparations, washing preparations and cleaning preparations -77,06 -99,39 -99,98 -79,15 -69,29 69,90* note: *) the calculations are performed based on provisional statistical data. source: elaborated by the author. sausages made in moldova are competitive on the internal market. in 2018, the symmetrical index of comparative advantages on the domestic market (sicad) of sausages and similar products increased by 2.27 percentage points. this growth was caused by a rise in consumer preferences for the purchase of sausages of domestic production and, accordingly, a reduction in demand for those economy and sociology 79 no. 1 / 2020 imported. imports of these goods diminished by 24.2% compared with 2017. namely, a growth of the import price by 16.1% affected the decrease in the demand for imported sausages. in the future, this product will not be able to expand its sales markets abroad, as the domestic livestock sector is in decline. according to the author’s calculations, in 2019 sunflower oil had comparative advantage of 27.00% on the domestic market. the competitiveness of this product is increasing on foreign markets. the increase in demand for vegetable oil made in moldova by 23.61% on the market of european union is due to the relatively low price of the delivered goods, which decreased by 8.35% compared to the previous year. the main european markets are spain and italy. vegetables are competitive on the domestic market, but not on the foreign market. during the years 2017-2019, the competitiveness of vegetables on the domestic market decreased due to acute competition. in 2018, the import of this category of goods registered a higher volume than that achieved in 2017 by 88.45%, and in the following year (2019) it increased by 6.62% compared to 2018. in 2019, the main importer of cucumbers was turkey (71.60%), carrots, beets and other similar edible roots – belarus (63.57%), tomatoes – turkey (58.12%), onions and other allied vegetables – russian federation (57.51%), cabbage – northern macedonia (41.32%). cheese, cottage cheese, feta cheese made in moldova had comparative advantages on the domestic market compared to imported analogue goods up to 2016. but starting with 2017, this kind of goods got comparative disadvantage, because, in that year, the volume of its production suddenly decreased by 79.93% compared to the previous year. in addition, consumer preferences have changed in favor of quality ones, which are high in milk fat. according to the results of studies conducted in 2015-2016 by the eastern european foundation (fee) and in 2017 by the center for applied and certified metrology (cmac), „the milk fat content of a large number of dairy products manufactured in moldova is very low and does not correspond technical regulations on dairy products” (logos press 2018). the author's calculations showed that some of the goods of the agro-industrial branch, which were not competitive, could become more competitive if the domestic producer would be supported by the state. the analysis of comparative advantage of machine building industries’ merchandises showed that the goods produced by the german company dräxlmaier, which deliver electrical equipment, had the biggest advantages on the foreign market. however, this commodity has not comparative advantage on the domestic market, because it is lohn production, and it is not offered on the internal market. light industry goods have a comparative disadvantage, but the majority of building materials produced in the republic of moldova have comparative advantages on the internal market, since from the point of view of minimizing transportation costs it is more profitable to buy domestic goods than imported. one of the conditions for the development of this industry is a stable increase in disposable income and an increase in the well-being of the population. during the years 2017-2019, the competitiveness of the manufacture of registers, account books, notebooks, order books, receipt books, letter pads, diaries decreased. organic surface-active agents, surface-active preparations, washing preparations and cleaning preparations had a comparative disadvantage during the period under review (table 1). this branch has potential. taking into account that the covid-19 pandemic caused the increase of the demand for soap, disinfectant solutions, an effective management would ensure the increase of the competitiveness of these goods on the domestic market. a new integral index for quantifying the competitiveness of goods: elaboration and application the second task proposed by the author is to develop an integral index of the competitiveness of domestic goods on the internal market. in the case of the integral index, a certain algorithm is used, which takes into account the factors of competitiveness. some of the factors are estimated numerically, and others are qualitative. in the literature, the set of factors differs from one author to another, contains quantitative and qualitative factors (sorokina et al. 2010:214), or only qualitative factors (moseiko et al. 2017:4). the author theoretical and scientifical journal 80 no. 1 / 2020 proposes another algorithm for assessing the competitiveness of goods, which differs from those already known. the new algorithm takes into account the competitiveness factors of the goods listed in the previously published article (gutium 2018:67). the author's proposal consists in calculating, in the first stage, the following indicators: m a fm a em a sm a qm a p f f c e e c s s c q q c p p c  ;;;; , (4) where: cp, cq, cs, ce, cf – competitiveness of the domestic goods, in relation to the imported goods, by price (p), by the quality of the goods (q), by after-sales service (s), by marketing elements (e), by psychological factors (f ); pa, qa, sa, ea, fa – indicators of the analyzed domestic goods; pm, qm, sm, em, fm – indicators of the imported goods. the integral index of competitiveness (ic) can be calculated according to the following formula: fesq p c cbcbcbcb c b i  5432 1 , (5) 1 54321  bbbbb , (6) where: 54321 ,,,, bbbbb – significance coefficients of competitiveness factors (p, q, s, e, f). if the significance of the factors to the consumer is identical, then: 2,0 54321  bbbbb . (7) the value of the impact of the price factor and the quality factor depends on the well-being of consumers. price-quality ratio can be represented by a function dependent on the disposable income of consumers, in the case of a good manufactured by a particular producer (equation 8), and by a function dependent on the welfare of the population, in the case of a group of similar domestic goods (equation 9):  tyf b b  1 2 , (8)        n pib f b b 1 2 , (9) where: y – consumer income; t – income tax; pib – the gross domestic product; n – the number of habitually resident population. the good is considered competitive when the integral index of competitiveness (ic) reaches values greater than or equal to 1. according to the author, among the factors of competitiveness, the first, which has to be evaluated, is price. today, in the republic of moldova, a large part of the population prefers a cheap and relatively low-quality product, and not an expensive and high quality one. the causes of this trend are the low solvency, the devaluation of the national currency, inflation, wage retention, the wage gap, economic impact of the covid-19 pandemic. in 2018, the minimum subsistence, based on the stable population, was 1891 lei, the average monthly income available per person was 2060.2 lei, and in 2019 the indicators based on the habitually resident population were corresponding 2031.2 lei and 2880.6 lei. the comparative analysis of the minimum consumption basket with the disposable income of the population on quintiles showed, that in 2018, the disposable income of 40% of the stable population is lower than the subsistence minimum. quintile ii recorded the disposable income of 1824.1 lei, which is 96% of the minimum consumption basket (bns 2020). generalizing the above, we conclude, a considerable part of the population, places the price first in the list of parameters for assessing the competitiveness economy and sociology 81 no. 1 / 2020 of domestic goods on the internal market. this tendency is cause by the relatively low level of income. domestic enterprises that promote manufactured goods on both domestic and foreign markets take into account national, regional and international standards, such as iso, iec, iec and others. at the stage of assessing competitiveness in relation to quality, the parameters of goods are adjusted to the standards in force on the market. in the case of the internal market, comparative analysis is performed with the parameters of the imported analogue commodity. it is necessary to establish the compliance of the product parameters with the mandatory standards and regulations, which determine the level and limits of these parameters. if at least one of the parameters does not correspond to the mandatory level, which is prescribed by the current rules and standards, the goods cannot be considered competitive, regardless of the result of the comparison of other parameters. considering that four of the five groups of competitiveness factors need to be assessed by experts, the author offers a new approach to assessing the competitiveness of goods by quality on the domestic market, which allows making calculations based on available statistical data. in developing a new approach, the author took into account that the higher the quality of the product, the higher the income elasticity of demand will be. consequently, the competitiveness of domestic goods in relation to imported goods in quality can be calculated as the ratio between the income elasticity of demand for domestic goods  a i e and the income elasticity of demand for imported one  m i e : m m a a m ama m i a i q q q q q q q i q i q e e c           % % % % % % . (10) so: a m m a q q q q q c    , (11) where: qa – the volume of the domestic goods realized on the domestic market; qm – the volume of the imported goods realized on the domestic market; i – disposable income. because elasticity can take both positive and negative values, we can encounter four situations. case i: 0>0> m m a a q q q q  . (12) case ii: 0<0> m m a a q q q q  . (13) case iii: 0>0< m m a a q q q q  . (14) case iv: 0<0< m m a a q q q q  . (15) in case i we will apply equation 11 for the calculation cq, and in case ii we will consider that cq=1, while in case iii we will estimate cq=0. for case iv we will modify equation 11, and we will use the following formula:              m m a a q q q q q c  11 . (16) the merchandise is competitive in quality if, as a result of the calculations, we get values greater than or equal to 1. in table 2 mono-factorial models of the competitiveness of goods are presented horizontally, and nonlinear bi-factorial models are above the diagonal. theoretical and scientifical journal 82 no. 1 / 2020 table 2 components of mono-factorial and nonlinear bi-factorial models of goods’ competitiveness factors price (p) quality of goods (q) after-sales service (s) marketing elements (e) psychological factors (f) price (p) p b 1 1 p q b 12 p s b 13 p e b 14 p f b 15 quality of goods (q) qb2 sqb23 eqb24 fqb25 after-sales service (s) sb3 esb34 fsb35 marketing elements (e) eb4 feb45 psychological factors (f) fb5 source: elaborated by the author. not all five groups of competitiveness factors are influencing factors for all kind of goods. for example, in the case of basic necessities, such as bread, dairy, the main influencing factors are price and quality, and the influence of the after-sales service factor is zero. therefore, the competitiveness model of goods can contain only two exogenous variables, and the model can be linear or nonlinear. in analyzing the results, we will focus on the agricultural sector, because moldova is an agricultural state, and on manufacturing industries, because namely a developed industrial state, and not an agrarian state, can ensure a sustainable growth of the national economy. the author applied the developed integral index to assess the competitiveness of some goods and presented the results of the calculations in table 3. table 3 integral index of domestic goods on the internal market 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* wheat and meslin 1,82 1,34 1,36 1,81 1,19 1,42 barley 1,25 1,26 1,01 1,00 1,40 1,48 potatoes 1,02 1,53 1,48 1,53 1,63 1,53 tomatoes, fresh or chilled 1,74 1,42 2,33 3,36 2,57 2,31 onions and other allied vegetables 1,49 1,14 1,69 2,60 1,60 1,99 cucumbers and gherkins, fresh or chilled 2,51 2,67 3,46 4,76 3,75 3,56 grapes, fresh or dried table varieties 4,15 3,80 3,31 5,62 6,85 6,01 apples, pears and quinces, fresh 6,27 2,47 3,43 3,47 3,14 3,16 apricots, cherries, sour cherries, peaches (including nectarines), fresh plums 7,76 6,94 5,59 3,53 3,53 5,30 milk and cream, without or with added sugar or other sweetening matter 2,08 2,22 1,79 1,25 1,16 1,67* crude sunflower-seed oil and safflower oil and their fractions, not chemically modified 1,24 1,35 1,16 1,14 1,31 1,39* margarine 0,64 0,75 0,53 0,81 0,67 0,68* other prepared or preserved meat, meat offal or blood 0,50 0,83 0,62 0,60 0,99 0,97* wool 1,55 1,27 0,97 1,66 2,49 3,36 carpets and other floor coverings 0,72 0,58 0,38 0,47 0,71 0,48* stockings, socks and the like 0,91 0,57 0,46 0,60 0,72 0,68* footwear 0,28 0,48 0,37 0,29 0,55 0,24* note: *) the calculations are performed based on provisional statistical data. source: elaborated by the author. economy and sociology 83 no. 1 / 2020 of the set of goods analyzed, only some of the domestic goods are competitive by price, such as cereals, barley, onions, grapes, natural honey, apricots, cherries, peaches (including nectarines), plums, apples, pears and quinces, etc. consequently, mainly unprocessed primary products are competitive on the domestic market, but a lot of highly processed products, high-tech products are not competitive. in the republic of moldova, the technological gap with the main trading partners is growing and, consequently, the competitive potential of many processed goods is declining. some of products offered by the manufacturing industry are lohn production. the analysis of the competitiveness of domestic goods on the internal and foreign market showed that in the case of many products, the higher the degree of processing, the lower the competitiveness of these goods in comparison with imported similar goods (gutium 2018:73). the analysis of the correlation between competitiveness and the level of economic, scientific and technological development of the country showed that the correlation is negative in case of unprocessed primary products, and the correlation is positive in case of high value-added processed goods and high-tech goods (pojsik 2018:13). for determining the directions of specialization and the set of goods that need to be promoted on the foreign market, the author proposes the following integral index of the competitiveness of domestic goods on the foreign market, which has included a new component: t x f x e x s x qx p ex c gcbcbcbcb c b i  5432 1 , (17) m x x fm x x em x x sm x x qm x x p f f c e e c s s c q q c p p c  ;;;; , (18) where: x f x e x s x q x p ccccc ,,,, – competitiveness of the exported goods, in relation to the imported goods, by price (p), by the quality of the goods (q), by after-sales service (s), by marketing elements (e), by psychological factors (f ); gt – the degree of technological intensity of the manufacture of the analyzed domestic goods; px, qx, sx, ex, fx – indicators of the exported goods. the degree of technological intensity of the manufacture of the goods can be determined using the expert judgment method. in the case of the limited time and human resources required to evaluate this indicator, the author proposes to use the following method. the products can be divided according to the processing level into: unprocessed primary products; semi-processed products; processed products; high-tech products. each product group can be given the following score (table 4): table 4 estimation of the degree of technological intensity of the manufacture of the goods type of goods gt unprocessed primary products (cereals, fruits, fresh vegetables, raw hides, agricultural wool, etc.) 0.5 semi-processed products (flour, vegetable oils, refined sugar, tanned hides and skins, woolen yarn, etc.) 1.0 processed products (cheese, cheese, wine, canned meat, juices, stockings, clothing, etc.) 1.5 high-tech products (means of transport, equipment, electronic products, etc.) 2.0 source: elaborated by the author. the author used the developed integral index, took into account the available resources, human potential, and based on the calculations made conclusion that the priority sectors that need to be developed are the manufacture of: bicycles, scooters; submersible pumps; sports equipment for fitness centers; children's sports suits for outdoor play; lighting installations, led installations; drugs; antifreeze liquid; organic surface-active agents, surface-active preparations, washing preparations theoretical and scientifical journal 84 no. 1 / 2020 and cleaning preparations; cosmetics; food concentrates and sublimated products; essential oils; sleeping bags, tents; overalls; and so on. all branches of the national economy, including the agro-industrial, have potential. the main directions for improving the competitiveness of goods, in the current conditions, are: modernization of the processing industry; introduction of innovations; liberalization of trade relations; diversification of goods; supporting agricultural producers, enterprises that procure hi-tech equipment and create new jobs; promoting antitrust policy and improving product quality that should meet the standards of both the european union and the eurasian union. the republic of moldova must not give up either the european or the eurasian market. conclusions the researcher has achieved the basic goals. the novelty of the research consists in the elaboration of the integral index of the competitiveness of the domestic goods on the internal and external market, and in the improvement of the symmetrical index of the comparative advantage by including a new factor of influence. the estimation of the competitiveness of the goods using the developed indicators showed that on the internal market the unprocessed primary products and the processed products with a low degree of technological intensity of the manufacture of goods are mainly 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[citat 15 aprilie 2020]. disponibil: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/problemy-otsenkikonkurentosposobnosti-produktsii-avtomobilestroeniya/viewer 21. yu, r., cai, j., leung, p. the normalized revealed comparative advantage index. in: the annals of regional science. 2009, vol. 43, issue 1, pp. 267-282. issn 0570-1864. 22. un comtrade database [citat 21 aprilie2020]. disponibil: https://comtrade.un.org article history received 01 june 2020 accepted 12 june 2020 https://aif.md/dostizhenija-so-znakom-minus/ https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=19885673 https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/problemy-otsenki-konkurentosposobnosti-produktsii-avtomobilestroeniya/viewer https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/problemy-otsenki-konkurentosposobnosti-produktsii-avtomobilestroeniya/viewer https://comtrade.un.org/db/dqbasicqueryresults.aspx?cc=total&px=hs&r=498&y=2007,%202008,%202009,%202010,%202011,%202012,%202013,%202014,%202015,%202016,%202017&p=0&rg=1,2,3,4&so=9999 how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 32 no. 2 / 2019 external debt implications on the development of national economy victoria iordachi1, phd in economics, associated researcher, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova stela ciobu2, phd in economics, associated professor, academy of economic studies of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.2-03 jel classification: e42, e52, e58 udc: 336.273.3(478) abstract the external debt of the republic of moldova is increasing constantly. excessive external debt has been a big problem for both developing and developed countries during the years. developing countries face this problem more often as they need to borrow to finance their objectives and strengthen the economic growth. it is very important for our country to determine the optimal level of indebtedness that the economy can bear. that is why the external debt should be contracted in strict accordance with the needs of the economy, and borrowed loans should consider the country’s reimbursement capacities to avoid the liquidity or solvency crisis. the scope of this paper is to give a prompt and correct overview of the importance of external debt management and its impact on the economic growth of the country. in the research process, the deduction, based on general theoretical information on the structure, management, external debt and indebtedness assessment, the economic influence policies were used and then passed on to practical analysis using specific indicators. keywords: gross external debt, gross domestic product, price stability, inflation pressures, foreign currency, economic crisis. datoria externă a republicii moldova este în continuă creștere. datoria externă excesivă a fost o mare problemă atât pentru țările în curs de dezvoltare, cât și pentru cele dezvoltate de-a lungul anilor. țările în curs de dezvoltare se confruntă mai des cu această problemă, întrucât trebuie să împrumute pentru a-și finanța obiectivele și pentru a consolida creșterea economică. este foarte important pentru țara noastră să determine nivelul optim de îndatorare pe care economia îl poate suporta. acesta este motivul pentru care datoria externă ar trebui contractată în concordanță strictă cu nevoile economiei și luând în considerare capacitățile de rambursare, pentru a evita criza de lichiditate sau de solvabilitate. scopul acestei lucrări este de a oferi o imagine generală promptă și corectă a importanței gestionării datoriei externe și a impactului acesteia asupra creșterii economice a țării. în procesul de cercetare a fost utilizată deducerea bazată pe informații teoretice generale privind structura și managementul datoriei externe, precum și evaluarea îndatorării, politicile de influență economică și apoi analiza practică, folosind indicatori specifici. cuvinte-cheie: datora externă brută, produsul intern brut, stabilitatea prețurilor, presiuni inflaționiste, valută străină, criză economică. внешний долг республики молдова постоянно увеличивается. в течение многих лет чрезмерная внешняя задолженность была большой проблемой как для развивающихся, так и для развитых стран. развивающиеся страны сталкиваются с этой проблемой чаще, поскольку им необходимо брать кредиты для финансирования своих целей и усиления экономического роста. для нашей страны очень важно определить оптимальный уровень задолженности, который может выдержать экономика. вот почему внешний долг следует заключать в строгом соответствии с потребностями экономики, а заемные кредиты должны учитывать возможности их возмещения, чтобы избежать кризиса ликвидности или платежеспособности. цель этой статьи – дать 1 © victoria iordachi, timush_v@yahoo.co.uk 2 © stela ciobu, stela.ciobu@gmail.com mailto:timush_v@yahoo.co.uk mailto:stela.ciobu@gmail.com economy and sociology 33 no. 2 / 2019 быстрый и правильный обзор значимости управления внешним долгом и его влияния на экономический рост страны. в процессе исследования использовалась дедукция, основанная на общей теоретической информации о структуре, управлении, оценке внешнего долга и задолженности, политике экономического влияния, а затем переход к практическому анализу с использованием конкретных показателей. ключевые слова: валовой внешний долг, валовой внутренний продукт, ценовая стабильность, инфляционное давление, иностранная валюта, экономический кризис. introduction. excessive external debt has been a big problem for both developing and developed countries during the years. developing countries face this problem more often as they need to borrow to finance their objectives and strengthen the economic growth. however, these borrowings have to be strictly managed and must be allocated properly for productive expenditures in accordance to their repayment ability. though the debt is useful to supplement the capital, it must be managed and controlled very carefully, proper strategies have to be adopted for enforcing repayment ability of the country. high level of external debt has a negative impact on the economy in terms of heavy debt servicing and decreased development expenditures, essential in carrying the growth process. however, less funds for investing in the economy and an increase in tax regime for repayment, disturbs the economic growth as it constraints the productive investment, leading to a narrow debt repayment ability of the country. it has a negative impact on the foreign and national investment, and development objectives of the country. the economic growth is one of the aspirations of all economies, as it leads to a rise in per capita income, to raising the standards of living of the population, to the overall development of the national economy, and, finally, to the economic progress. a developing country in the transition from the centralized to the market economy cannot build a solid democracy, based on a competitive economy and a modernized economic and social infrastructure system, rather than by calling for funding external debt generating unit. considered to be at the heart of the development of the capitalist economies, the credit is widely used at macroeconomic level. both developed and developing countries resort to domestic or foreign credits because they offer them the opportunity to spend now and pay in a future period when the investment starts to make a profit. i. the impact of the external debt on the national economy external debt as a policy to promote economic growth creates serious debates between economists and the policy makers. the main issue is whether or not external borrowing leads to economic growth in debtor countries or affect it negatively. this issue results in two main perspectives for explaining the relationship between external debt and economic growth. on the one hand, the neoclassical growth models support that there is a positive relationship between external debt and economic growth. they consider that external debt is one source for financing capital formation, and if financing capital formation through borrowing, it could promote the economic growth. on the other hand, krugman contradicts this view and tells that the external debt is one of the barriers that prevent the economic growth. kalonji explained that excessive external debt is a cause of poverty in the debtors’ countries [4, krugman, p., 1988]. this ideology shows us that a country should borrow from abroad as long as the capital is not sufficient and it will produce a rate of return that is higher than the cost of the borrowing. in this way, developing countries with an inadequate capital will keep borrowing to fill the national savings and investment. they will borrow at a rate that depends on the relation among foreign and national savings, investment and economic growth so in that way, the borrowing countries will increase their output with the help of foreign savings. this procedure will be effective only if the borrowing will be managed efficiently and the rate of return will be higher than the cost of borrowing. economic theories suggest that reasonable levels of external debt lead to an economic growth. countries at early stages of development have small levels of capital and stocks and need the investments with less interest rate lower than in developed countries. as they use the borrowed funds adequately for productive purposes and do not suffer from macroeconomic instability, policies that twist the economic incentives, these funds will help the economy and lead to an economic growth and will allow for timely debt repayments [10, patillo, c., ricci, l., 2002]. these theories are also proved in more realistic predictions that countries may not be able to borrow freely because of the risk of debt repudiation. theoretical and scientifical journal 34 no. 2 / 2019 the most common question for economist and policy makers is: why do excessive debt leads to a lower economic growth? well, the best known answer to this question comes from “debt overhang” theories, which show us that most likely, the debt will be higher than the country’s repayment ability, and expected debt service costs will discourage further domestic and foreign investments, and will harm the economic growth. potential investors will fear to invest as they will consider that if a country produces more, it will be taxed by creditors to service the external debt, and thus they will be willing less to incur costs today for the sake of increased output in the future. this argument claims that large debt stocks lead to a lower probability of debt repayment. although the debt overhang models don’t show the effects on growth in particular, but it shows quiet certain that large debt stocks lower growth partly by reducing investments. moreover, the incentive effects associated with debt stocks tend to reduce the benefits to be expected from policy reforms that would strengthen efficiency and growth, such as trade liberalization and fiscal adjustment. the government will be less likely to support current costs if it notices that the future benefit in terms of higher output will grow partly to foreign lenders. thereby, some calculations show us that, at a reasonable level of debt. further borrowing would be expected to have a positive effect on economic growth. others claim that large accumulated debt stocks may be a barrier to growth. both these considerations combined together imply that debt is likely to have a neutral effect on growth. although the “over hang” theory cannot provide an implicit overview of external debt impact over economic growth, we can analyze the debt “laffer curve” (see fig. 1). as the peak of the debt “laffer curve” shows us the point at which rising debt stocks begin acting as tax on investment or other activities upfront costs in exchange for future investments, the peak also can be the point at which the debt begins to have a negative marginal impact on growth. the external debt is in a tight relationship with the economic growth. to prove this, we will use several analyses of various debt indicators that take into account the fact that a significant part of the external debt is narrowed at an interest rate below the market rate. it is important because most studies considered debt ratios, such as exports to gdp in nominal terms, meaning that the actual amount they will repay in the future is less than the face value of the debt. to particularly analyze the debt overhang effect with the help of the debt indicators, it is also included the ratio of debt service to exports to control for any displacement effects arising from resources spent on debt service instead of investment or growth strengthening of domestic spending. the debt has indeed an inverted u curve with the growth. when countries open up to foreign markets and start borrowing, the effect on growth is likely to be positive from start. as debt ratio increases, eventually additional debt arises which slows the growth even though the overall debt level continues to provide a positive contribution towards growth. thus, the peak can be considered as the maximum level of debt. afterwards the debt goes below zero and creates a negative effect towards growth (see fig. 1). figure 1. debt thresholds source: made by authors in base of [10, patillo, c., ricci, l., 2002]. economy and sociology 35 no. 2 / 2019 by analyzing the fig. 1, we can notice two critical points. the one where we can identify that at the point b, the overall contribution of debt toward growth becomes negative at 160-170 percent of exports and 35-40 percent of gdp. the marginal impact becomes negative at about half of these levels. in particular, it is interesting to denote that countries which benefit from concessional lending are those already which have excessive indebtedness. the ratio of external debt to gdp is a structural factor influenced by different indicators: the size of the country, the level of economic development and level of economic and financial integration. countries that are less developed and didn’t participate in the globalization or in integration programs have the lowest levels of this indicator. usually, the critical value of this indicator is at 80%. with the help of this indicator, we can classify the countries in three different categories approved by the world bank [2, 2000]:  less indebted countries – ted/gdp ≤ 48%;  moderately indebted countries – 48% ≤ ted/gdp ≤ 80%;  highly indebted countries – ted/gdp ≥ 80%. for this indicator is very important the marginal rate of debt growth in relation to the rate of growth of gross domestic product. for timely servicing of external debt economic growth rate should be higher than the growth rate of external debt in the current year. if the economy grows slowly, the government will have to implement some serious adjustments. whether this really leads to inflation, this depends very much on the monetary policy response. as much as the central bank will maintain the price stability as an objective, any increase of the borrowing will require fiscal adjustments. the relationship between the fiscal and monetary policy is very strongly bounded. this bond describes the relationship explains the long term interest burden and the primary surplus that has to be gathered if the real interest rate is higher than the real economic growth rate. differently, solvency would always be present. to remove the sovereign default, the interest problem has to be covered by government surpluses gathered in the future. any increases in the debt ratio, for example an increase in the ratio of the interest rate to the economic growth, will require adjustments, either in the form of higher taxes or reducing the total spending of the country. the external debt has also an impact on the central banks. if the external debt will grow constantly, the central bank will have to increase the monetary supplies, the monetary base and the level of total reserves also in a relationship with a constant increase of the inflation rate. this process will lead to an increase in revenue from non-interest bearing money creation. such a shift in policy will be inevitable in the future is enough to lead to an increase in the price level. the real gains from an increase in the inflation rate are rather limited: revenues generated from non-interest bearing money creation has only a small part from the total revenues of the country. in addition to the idea provided above, an increase in the price level will also decrease the demand for the central bank money. the price stability can have a significant impact on the economy in the long run. as long as the participants count on price stability, the nominal and real interest rate will also remain low, even if the inflation is quiet high, it will make the external debt manageable for the government. however, high inflation is expected to persist and nominal interest rates will rise sharply because the financial market asks a premium on the risk of asset devaluation through inflation, the high real interest burden can lead to solvency jeopardy. the pressure of the monetary shift to an inflationary policy mounts will lead to an increase in the government’s debt ratio. an inflow of the capital, regardless of where it comes from, will have one or more of the following effects:1  increasing of the level of foreign investment;  increasing of the capacity of obtaining the foreign currency by the respective country, meaning the increasing of the exports or reducing of the imports by means of appropriate investments;  incorporation into the investments that do not directly increase the ability to obtain currency (example: in construction); 1băcescu-cărbunariu angelica; condruz-băcescu monica, dependenţa riscului de ţară faţă de nivelul datoriei externe, revista română de statistică, nr.10/ 2012 theoretical and scientifical journal 36 no. 2 / 2019  financing of the speculative activities such as property and stock (including imported stocks);  offsetting of the private capital outflows due to the political fears or monetary speculation;  increasing for the government, of the opportunities to avoid the major economic policy transformations such as reducing domestic demand, liberalizing domestic capital markets, encouraging domestic savings or reducing budget deficits;  supporting of the consumer spending for medium-sized classes, which are more demanding for imported goods;  creating of the sources for military spending;  provision of the project or of the other highly profitable businesses that are legally or otherwise intended for government supporters. to a lesser extent, in most of the countries, we observe a combination of the presented effects. extreme care should be taken in structuring of the external debt, whether it be its maturity, the currency of the loan or the interest rate. a wrong structure of the external debt is perhaps the most important factor in triggering or accentuation of an economic crisis. ii. the external debt: a generator of economic crisis or economic solution in the republic moldova the republic of moldova, as well as other states, call to the foreign loans when domestic savings are insufficient to finance the national consumption and investment. external credits allow the imports to exceed the exports, leading to budget deficit financing and thus delaying important investment projects. external credits contribute to the acceleration of economic growth, but it is not to be neglected that the country must repay the contracted loans and the related interest. it is very important for our country to determine the optimal level of indebtedness that the economy can bear. that is why the external debt should be contracted in strict accordance with the needs of the economy, and borrowed loans should consider its reimbursement capacities to avoid the liquidity or solvency crisis. the external debt of the republic of moldova registered an upward trend during the analyzed period, namely an increase from 6 463,89 million usd in 2014 to 7 464,65 million usd in 2018 (see fig. 2). figure 2. gross external debt in dynamics, in million usd and % source: in base of data retrieved from www.bnm.org http://www.bnm.org/ economy and sociology 37 no. 2 / 2019 the gross external debt of the republic of moldova consisted 65,2 % of the total gdp at the end of 2018, compared with the ratio of 72,1% in the previous year. if analyzing the evolution of the external debt of the rep. moldova, we observe that it started to increase since 2006 followed by a sharp drop in 2008, afterwards rocketed up the next year to 78.82% from the total gdp [3, iordachi, v., ciobu, s., 2019]. the rate remained practically constant during the years. the highest rate of external debt towards gdp we can notice at the end of 2015, 78,4 % of the total gdp which is high rate, and as discussed above, we can firmly say that moldova is a highly indebted country. the external debt of the republic of moldova cannot be considered huge that will lead to an economic crisis. still, it is above the external debt sustainability level and it can be carefully managed in order to avoid unpleasant economic situations and also budgetary deficits. to service the external state debt in 2017, the amount of 91,1 million usd (which is the equivalent of 1687,6 million lei) was spent, or with 21,5 million usd (+31,0%) more than in 2016 (see table 1). of the total amount of the expenses destined to service the external state debt, 71,7 million usd (the equivalent of 1329,7 million lei) constitutes the reimbursement of the principal amounts and 19,4 million usd (the equivalent of 357.9 million lei) – the service of external state debt, which includes the payment of interest and related commissions. compared to 2016, the servicing of the external state debt registered an increase both at the repayment of the principal (+ 16,4 million usd/ + 29,7%) and at the payment of the related interests (+ 5,1 million usd / + 35,9%) [5, 2018]. table 1 evolution of expenditures for servicing the external state debt in 2015-2017, mil. lei year 2015 2016 2017 deviations, 2017 compared to 2016 1 2 3 4 5=4-3 servicing the external state debt, out of which: 974,0 1392,0 1687,6 295,6 repayment of principal amount 724,3 1107,3 1329,7 222,4 payment of interest and commissions 249,7 284,6 357,9 73,3 state debt service growth rate,% +76,3 +67,5 +10,4 x gdp growth rate, % +9,4 +10,5 +11,1 x state budget expenditures growth rate, % +2,6 +7,3 +9,9 x source: decision nr. 25 from 28.05.2018 on the report on management performance audit of the public sector debt in 2017 [online]. available on: http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=376291. the summary of the expenditures intended for servicing the external state debt in the years 2015-2017 is presented in table 2. table 2 service of the external state debt in 2015-2017 year total payed reimbursement of the principal payment of interest and commissions mil. usd mil. lei mil. usd mil. lei mil. usd mil. lei 2017 91,1 1687,6 71,7 1329,7 19,4 357,9 2016 69,6 1392,0 55,3 1107,3 14,3 284,6 2015 51,8 974,0 38,5 724,3 13,3 249,7 source: decision nr. 25 from 28.05.2018 on the report on management performance audit of the public sector debt in 2017 [online]. available on: http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=376291. the increase of the expenses for servicing the external state debt is caused by the increase of the payments destined for the repayment of the principal amount, as well as by the beginning of the http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=376291 http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=376291 theoretical and scientifical journal 38 no. 2 / 2019 repayment of the loan (tranche 3) granted by the imf to support the budget in 2010 (76,2 million lei), of the loan (tranche 1) granted by romania in 2015 (158,0 million lei) and the loan (tranche 3) granted by the eib for the implementation of the project "european roads" (11,2 million lei). when developing countries pay their interest rates and maturity rates on contracted loans, they often sacrifice the development of the education or health systems, economic growth and raising the standard of living of citizens. it is essential for the borrowing country that contracted and used external loans contribute to the development and modernization of the economy and investment in infrastructure and not to increase of consumption. the financial resources should flow from the developed countries to the developing ones, but it is more and more obvious that this flow has been reversed due to the increasing amounts d ue to the repayments of credits contracted in the previous periods. this makes it difficult for developing countries to show upward growth trends and reduce the poverty. the foreign loans allow the republic of moldova's economy to invest and consume beyond its domestic capacity, and allow the capital formation to be funded from both internal resources and resource-attracting by countries with the surplus of the capital. the external lending can lead to a faster economic growth, allowing more substantial investment to be funded, and mobilizing the resources available to the country, while giving it a more reserved, prudent and even more efficient use. they do not contribute to boosting of the economic growth as they are used to fund non productive activities or to counterbalance of the excessive capital exports. in this case, these loans could even exacerbate the pressures on budgetary and balance-of-payments operations. the idea that should govern the realistic appreciation of the external debt of the republi c of moldova is, as with other economic processes, the reporting of the external debt costs to the advantages resulting from the foreign capital use or, in other words, the reporting of difficulties arising from the external debt service to the consolidation of the market economy. a country's external indebtedness is a natural transaction that confers on domestic or foreign economic agents the realization of mutually beneficial inter-temporal arbitrages that a closed economy cannot offer. although they are natural and add to the efficiency of the economic system, however, the capital flows can lead to a crisis of indebtedness, considering that they create problems on the one hand and solve them on another hand. we believe that not the existence of the external debt is a problem for the economy of the republic of moldova, but its size, currency structure and the interest rates; if the contracted debts record very high levels, their costs can become extremely high, both economically and socially, culminating in the outbreak of a foreign debt crisis. moldova’s risk of debt distress remains low, in the line of year 2017. all external indicators for public debt remain well below the debt threshold under the baseline, standard bound tests, and alternative scenarios. although, as moldova is most sensible to exchange rates depreciation, and as there was a sudden increase in other debt creating flows, moldova’s general public debt dynamics are projected to remain on a normal path under the baseline scenarios and also under the threshold. nonetheless, moldova needs careful and firm fiscal policy, and has to implement and improve its structural reforms to ensure the debt sustainability. because of that moldova is sensible to exogenous developments, and banking crisis, debt sustainability is strictly based on sou nd macroeconomic management and continuing progress on institutional and structural issues that would help to open the economy’s growth ability and reduce its vulnerability to shocks. in addition, the limited development of domestic debt market poses financial risk, considering the country’s necessity to development and significant dependence on foreign aid in the form of grants and concessional loans. the country has to implement several policies and put some effort to lengthen the average maturity of the domestic debt and sink the secondary market. in the medium term the tendency of covering the state budget balance (deficit) predominantly from external sources prevails. this development reveals the considerable dependence of the republic of moldova on external creditors and, implicitly, the financial and structural conditions for accessing foreign funds. in the period 2018-2020 it is estimated that the government will benefit from foreign state borrowing, which will be directed, on average, to 22,9% for the budget support, and for the economy and sociology 39 no. 2 / 2019 financing of the investment projects – of about 77,1%. at the same time, foreign state loans will be granted almost entirely by multilateral institutions during this period. the medium-term structure of external financing by category of instruments is presented in table 3. table 3 external financing during the years 2018-2020, according to the baseline scenario indicators u/m 2018 2019 2020 external debt financing including: % from gdp 4.8% 4.6% 3.3% loans from multilateral creditors at concessional terms % from total 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% loans from multilateral creditors at semi concessional terms % from total 38.3% 38.4% 32.8% loans from multilateral lenders with variable interest rate % from total 59.9% 60.1% 65.8% loans from bilateral creditors with fixed interest rate % from total 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% source: elaborated by author based on interactive database of government of moldova [online]. available on: http://lex.justice.md/userfiles/file/2018/mo7-17md/program_1148.docx. the structure of creditors of forecasted sources of external financing reveals the most important creditors for the period 2018-2020, as follows:  european investment bank – 30,6%;  world bank group – 28,9%;  european bank for reconstruction and development – 23,3%;  european commission – 5,6%;  council of europe development bank – 5,6%;  international monetary fund – 4,3%;  international fund for agricultural development – 1,6%;  government of poland – 0,02%. from the previous years, taking into account the constraints imposed by the local financial market, the ministry of finance intends to initiate a transition process, which will start with the implementation of the s1 with medium-term orientation towards: the possibility of extending the financing from the creditors bilateral agreements in order to reduce the impact of reducing external financing on concessional and semi-concessional terms; developing new instruments to be issued on the domestic market, focusing on expanding their maturity and analyzing the possibility of issuance of state securities on international markets, thus increasing the attrac tiveness of the ss local market but taking into account the implications of the exchange rate in this respect. at the same time, the ministry of finance will continue to maintain a flexible approach to the process of financing the state budget deficit (deficit) on the local market, in order to ensure the predictability and transparency of the state securities offer, in order to be able to react promptly to possible changes in the market trends and investor behavior [8, 2017]. there are other risks which can significantly influence the economy of the country and also affect negatively the external debt of the country. here we can list some potential risks that can arise in the long run in the development process of the country:  uncertainty about disbursements from official creditors, taking into account the country's dependence on external development partners;  failure to implement the originally planned deficit target in the budget;  global uncertainty about the influence of the monetary policy conduct of the main central banks of the world (the ecb and the fed) and the consequences of the referendum in the uk;  increase of the inflation rate and tightening of the monetary policy of the national bank of moldova;  depreciation of the official currency exchange rate of the national currency relative to the main currencies in which the external debt is denominated; http://lex.justice.md/userfiles/file/2018/mo7-17md/program_1148.docx theoretical and scientifical journal 40 no. 2 / 2019  political instability and unpredictability of political decisions;  diminishing national and international credibility for ss investors;  operational risk, and other risks that can arise during the years. all the above mentioned risks can have a negative influence on the national economy of the republic of moldova. these risks can lead to major problems in the country, for example the failure to implement the deficit objectives planned from the start can lead to additional unplanned costs and also will lead to external debt growth. the country will have to find other sources in order to cover the deficit gap. in order to avoid such situations or to deal correctly with this risk, the country has to improve the fiscal policy and to analyze it in correlation with the external debt of the country. inefficient fiscal policies can make it difficult to achieve the planned objectives for the upcoming year and also will cause additional expenses in order to cover the debts. the gov ernment has to make a strict relationship between the external debt and the correct administration of the government’s liquid assets. in order to deal with the problem of official exchange rate depreciation in relation with the main currencies in which the external debt is denominated, the government has to increase the share of net financing in national currency, which would facilitate the reduction of foreign exchange exposure, while taking into account the absorption capacity of the domestic market and, in general, the demand for debt instruments, expressed in mdl. the government has also to apply provisions to the estimate of the government debt balance and its service costs in the event of significant fluctuations in the official currency of the domestic currency. republic of moldova has to make big changes in the external debt management in order to at least maintain the external debt and not to make it grow higher and to be ready to deal with potential risks that can arise during the time. if the dimi nishing national and international credibility for ss investors will arise, it will cause huge troubles for the country. first of all, it will lead to a decrease in the ss because the investors will lose their desire to invest. in such a way, the country will not be able to finance its project and also to cover its deficit gap from the existent sources of funding from the local market. it will have a huge impact on the economic growth of the country and it will also lead to an increase in the public debt of the country. conclusions. as the external debt of the republic of moldova cannot be considered huge that will lead to an economic crisis. still, it is above the external debt sustainability level and it should be carefully managed in order to avoid unpleasant economic situations and budgetary deficits. the country has to analyze carefully its investment portfolio for the planned projects and also to compact the projects by giving priority to the most important projects for the national economy. it will help the government to repay the existing debts from their revenues. also the government has to improve their ss securities market, the primary and the secondary market in order to diversify the potential sources of finance. the government can transform the local financial market into a stable source of funding for budgeting and also it can diversify the domestic debt instruments and increasing their attractiveness. it is not necessary only to issue the securities only on the local market, but to have positive results, the government has to analyze the opportunity and take the necessary actions to enter the international financial markets by issuing bonds in foreign currency. the government has to supervise regularly the sustainability indicators of the state debt so that their dynamics will be within acceptable limits in the medium term and also to analyze the financial conditions of the newly borrowed external loans, the most optimal variant in terms of maturity of the loan and interest rate at the negotiation stage, for each individual loan. references 1. băcescu-cărbunariu, a., condruz-băcescu, m. dependenţa riscului de ţară faţă de nivelul datoriei externe. in: revista română de statistică. 2012, nr. 10, pp. 57-62. [accesat 30.09.2019]. disponibil: http://www.revistadestatistica.ro/wpcontent/uploads/2014/02/rrs_10_2012_a4_ro.pdf 2. guidelines for public debt management. international monetary fund, world bank. 2000, march 21. [accesat 30.09.2019]. disponibil: https://www.imf.org/external/np/mae/pdebt/2000/eng/guide.pdf https://www.imf.org/external/np/mae/pdebt/2000/eng/guide.pdf economy and sociology 41 no. 2 / 2019 3. iordachi, v., ciobu, s. sovereign external debt management in the republic of moldova – challenges and sollutions. in: the journal contemporary economy. 2019, vol. 4, issue 2, pp. 92102. issn 2537-4222. 4. krugman, p. financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang. in: journal of development economics. 1988, vol. 29 (3), pp. 253-268. issn 0304-3878. 5. hotătîre cu privire la raportul auditului performanței managementului datoriei sectorului public în anul 2017: nr. 25 din 28.05.2018. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2018, nr. 246-254, art. 25. [accesat 13.10.2019]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=376291 6. hotarare cu privire la unele măsuri de executare a legii nr. 419-xvi din 22 decembrie 2006 cu privire la datoria sectorului public, garanțiile de stat și recreditarea de stat: nr. 1136 din 18.10.2007. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2007, nr. 175-177, art. 1216. [accesat 15.05.2019]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/md/325680/ 7. lege cu privire la datoria publică, garanțiile de stat și recreditarea de stat: nr. 419 din 22.12.2006. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2007, nr. 32-35, art. 114. [accesat 15.05.2019]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/viewdoc.php?action=view&view=doc&id=333420&lang=1 8. managementul datoriei de stat pe termen mediu (2018-2020): program. 2017. [accesat 15.05.2019]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/userfiles/file/2018/mo717md/program_1148.docx 9. notă cu privire la prognoza principalilor indicatori macroeconomici pentru anii 2020-2022. [accesat 15.05.2019]. disponibil: https://mei.gov.md/sites/default/files/document/attachments/nota_prognoza_macroeconomi ca.pdf 10. patillo, c., ricci, l. external debt and growth. in: finance and development. 2002, vol. 39, no. 2. [accesat 15.05.2019]. disponibil: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2002/06/pattillo.htm article history received 04 november 2019 accepted 02 december 2019 http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=376291 http://lex.justice.md/viewdoc.php?action=view&view=doc&id=333420&lang=1 http://lex.justice.md/userfiles/file/2018/mo7-17md/program_1148.docx http://lex.justice.md/userfiles/file/2018/mo7-17md/program_1148.docx https://mei.gov.md/sites/default/files/document/attachments/nota_prognoza_macroeconomica.pdf https://mei.gov.md/sites/default/files/document/attachments/nota_prognoza_macroeconomica.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2002/06/pattillo.htm how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 20 no. 2 / 2019 entering in the global manufacturing outsourcing market and innovative development of the ukrainian industrial enterprises kseniia gorova1, phd in economics, associate professor, ntu „kharkiv polytechnic institute”, ukraine oleksandr dluhopolskyi2, habilitation in economics, professor, ternopil national economic university, ukraine tetiana dluhopolska3, phd student, ternopil national economic university, ukraine doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.2-02 jel classification: d29, f02, f23, o32 udc: 005.591.6(477) abstract the urgency of the research is caused by the problem of innovative development that is acutely facing the ukrainian industrial enterprises. according to statistics, a rather small share of industrial enterprises innovates in their activities and produces innovative products caused by the lack of investment and experience to intensify innovation. therefore, enterprises should use modern forms of business organization such as outsourcing that has proved itself as a strategic partnership form and a mechanism for the transfer of innovation. the purpose of the research is to develop recommendations for the release of the ukrainian industrial enterprises to the global manufacturing outsourcing market to ensure their innovative development. the subjects of the study are the types of manufacturing outsourcing and the mechanism of their impact on the innovative development of enterprises. this article is based on the research results of the ukrainian and foreign scientists, the information on analytical reports, official statistics and public companies’ information. the methods used in the research are analysis and synthesis, theoretical generalization, statistical analysis. the article analyzes the position of ukraine in the global manufacturing outsourcing market. the prospects of the ukrainian industrial enterprises to enter the global market of industrial outsourcing have been determined. recommendations on the choice of type of industrial outsourcing have been developed. the results of the research can be used in the practical activity of industrial enterprises and in further researches in the field of innovation management and enterprise organization. keywords: manufacturing outsourcing, industry, enterprise, innovative development, innovation, market. relevanța studiului se datorează problemei dezvoltării inovaționale, care este deosebit de acută pentru întreprinderile industriale ucrainene. conform statisticilor ucrainene, o pondere destul de mică a întreprinderilor industriale introduce inovații în activitățile lor și produce produse inovatoare, din cauza lipsei investițiilor și a experienței pentru intensificarea inovației. prin urmare, întreprinderile sunt obligate să folosească forme moderne de organizare a afacerilor, de exemplu, externalizarea, care s-a stabilit ca o formă eficientă de parteneriat strategic și un mecanism de transfer al inovației. scopul cercetării este să elaboreze recomandări privind intrarea întreprinderilor industriale ucrainene pe piața mondială de externalizare a producției pentru a asigura dezvoltarea lor inovatoare. obiectul cercetării îl constituie tipurile de externalizare a producției și mecanismul influenței acestora asupra dezvoltării inovatoare a întreprinderilor. articolul se bazează pe rezultatele studiilor realizate de cercetători ucraineni și străini, informații din rapoarte analitice, statistici oficiale și informații de la companii publice. metodele de cercetare utilizate în această lucrare includ analiza și sinteza, generalizarea teoretică și analiza statistică. articolul analizează poziția ucrainei pe piața globală de externalizare a producției. sunt determinate perspectivele întreprinderilor industriale ucrainene de a intra pe piața globală de externalizare industrială. sunt elaborate recomandări privind selectarea tipurilor de externalizare industrială. rezultatele cercetării pot fi utilizate în activitățile practice ale întreprinderilor industriale și în cercetarea ulterioară în domeniul managementului inovației și organizarea afacerilor. cuvinte-cheie: externalizarea producției, industrie, întreprindere, dezvoltare inovatoare, inovație, piață. 1 © kseniia gorova, ksenya.gf@gmail.com 2 © oleksandr dluhopolskyi, dlugopolsky77@gmail.com 3 © tetiana dluhopolska, tetianadluhopolska@gmail.com mailto:ksenya.gf@gmail.com mailto:dlugopolsky77@gmail.com economy and sociology 21 no. 2 / 2019 актуальность исследования обусловлена проблемой инновационного развития, которая особенно остро стоит перед украинскими промышленными предприятиями. согласно украинской статистике, довольно небольшая доля промышленных предприятий внедряет инновации в свою деятельность и производит инновационные продукты, что обусловлено отсутствием инвестиций и опыта для интенсификации инноваций. поэтому предприятия вынуждены использовать современные формы организации бизнеса, например, аутсорсинг, который зарекомендовал себя эффективной формой стратегического партнерства и механизмом передачи инноваций. целью статьи является разработка рекомендаций по выходу украинских промышленных предприятий на мировой рынок производственного аутсорсинга для обеспечения их инновационного развития. предметом исследования являются виды производственного аутсорсинга и механизм их влияния на инновационное развитие предприятий. статья основана на результатах исследований украинских и зарубежных ученых, информации аналитических отчетов, официальной статистике и информации от публичных компаний. методы исследования, использованные в работе, включают анализ и синтез, теоретическое обобщение, статистический анализ. в статье анализируется положение украины на мировом рынке производственного аутсорсинга. определены перспективы выхода украинских промышленных предприятий на мировой рынок промышленного аутсорсинга. разработаны рекомендации по выбору типов промышленного аутсорсинга. результаты исследования могут быть использованы в практической деятельности промышленных предприятий, а также для дальнейших исследований в области управления инновациями и организации бизнеса. ключевые слова: производственный аутсорсинг, промышленность, предприятие, инновационное развитие, инновации, рынок. introduction. the ukrainian economy is in a crisis now that is caused by the long-term political and economic instability in the country. industrial enterprises operate in conditions of national currency instability, economic relationships breaking, the loss of sales markets and the lack of sufficient investment resources. industrial enterprises don’t have enough funding for innovative development, improvement of their products and renewal of fixed assets. due to globalization and the rapid development of scientific and technological progress, competitive advantages are achieved by enterprises that are actively introducing innovations into their activities. at the same time, it’s impossible to keep business in competition for those enterprises that don’t have any ability to reach the modern technological level. it means that it will be very difficult for the ukrainian industrial enterprises to get a worthy place in the global market by themselves. therefore, they need to use advanced forms of business organization that helps to achieve the industry leaders’ level. one of these forms is outsourcing which has proven itself as a way to transfer innovations. the ukrainian industrial enterprises should consider the possibility of performing separate processes of the production cycle or the entire production process for the world famous brands. it will allow them to get some experience, use advanced technologies and introduce innovations into their work. the ukrainian industrial enterprises have all the prerequisites for entering the world market of industrial outsourcing. the country has a sufficient amount of educated professional labor resources with practical experience and low wages. also, there are a lot of industrial enterprises and research organizations with good potential. but they lost their competitiveness due to the lack of funding and obsolescence of the material base. it’s necessary to realize that all changes at the national level and at the level of most enterprises can provide the attractiveness of domestic companies for foreign partners. literature review. the globalization trends create a lot of conditions for a further global division of labor and the allocation of countries specializing in the outsourcing for certain services and business processes. it should be noted, that ukraine has all the chances to take a decent place in the global outsourcing market according to the low cost of labor and significant scientific, technological and intellectual potential. this will increase employment and stimulate the revival and development of individual sectors of the national economy. also, outsourcing is well known as a way of innervations transfer, so it will help the ukrainian industrial enterprises in their innovative development. the analysis of publications of the ukrainian and foreign scientists has shown the diversity of views on the definition of the outsourcing concept. supporters of the functional approach in determining the economic essence of outsourcing are [12, hejvud, b., 2004; 16, lemiš, k.m.,2010; 25, zagorodniy, a.h., theoretical and scientifical journal 22 no. 2 / 2019 patryn, h.o., 2009]. according to other scientists [18, močernyj, s.v. et al., 2005; 22, striletz, v. et al., 2010], outsourcing is a kind of partnership interaction between business entities and it is a way of cooperation. researchers [7, dominguez, l., 2006; 15, kohan, v.p., 2013] see the main importance of outsourcing in the possibility of attracting resources from other organizations, especially labor, material, technical, intellectual, etc. the globalization aspect of outsourcing is considered by duginecʹ g.v. [8, 2012]. we can generalize the basic approaches to outsourcing definition: functional (outsourcing is the process of transferring individual functions or business processes of the enterprise to external executors on a long-term, paid basis); cooperative (outsourcing is a form of business relations based on partnership, where the performer provides and develops certain aspects of its activity in the interests of the customer, while both participants are equally interested in the success of the common cause); resource (outsourcing is the use of labor, material, intellectual, technical resources of a third-party organization); organizational (outsourcing is a form of business organization the implementation of which is accompanied by the reorganization of the enterprise that may be characterized by optimization of the organizational structure or the separation of the enterprise unit into a separate economic entity or the withdrawal of it and all related assets to the organization of the service provider); strategic (outsourcing is an enterprise management strategy that allows focusing on key competencies); target (outsourcing is a method of optimization and increase of efficiency of the enterprise activity, increase of competitiveness, increase of economic safety and stability of the enterprise, crisis management, increase of the cost of the enterprise, etc. due to the concentration of efforts on the main activity); globalization (outsourcing is an instrument of the globalization of the world economy, a way to include all subjects of world economic relations in the system of global cooperation, which provides for deepening the specialization of individual regions for the implementation of certain business processes for international customers). it can be argued that outsourcing is a modern form of business organization that promotes the globalization of the international economy and the creation of powerful virtual organizations around a parent company that owns a trademark or brand and provides all other business processes including production to third-party executives who are interested in common success with the customer on a longterm, paid basis in order to ensure the efficiency of the activity, increase the competitiveness and stability of the enterprise as well as its flexible in accordance with current external conditions. globalization trends create more and more conditions for the further distribution of labor and responsibilities determining the countries specializing in outsourcing of some services and business processes. according to the low labor cost and significant scientific, technological and intellectual potential ukraine, it has all the chances to take a decent place in the international outsourcing market, which will increase employment and stimulate the revival and development of individual sectors of the national economy. the development of outsourcing in different countries of the world has been studied by many scientists, including [2, babanin, o.s., 2012; 7, dominguez, l., 2006] and others. provided investigations are aimed for determining the role of outsourcing in the modern ukrainian economy and the possibility of adopting the world experience of its application to domestic realities, market structure of outsourcing services and its main trends. the major trends in the global outsourcing market based on a number of publications of the consulting firms allow making some conclusions. it was found currently that the asia-pacific region is the leader in the supply of outsourcing services. the leaders among the countries are india, china, vietnam, philippines and malaysia. the most successful european providers of outsourcing services are ireland and poland. there were investigated the top 100 outsourcing destinations by tholons agency, global outsourcing index and future outsourcing index developed by minevich m., richter f.j. [17, 2015], it outsourcing review by ceeoa. assessment of attractiveness of the region as an outsourcer should be primarily based on the balance of indicators such as the order of execution risks in the country and its cost. special attention economy and sociology 23 no. 2 / 2019 should be paid to the availability of human resources, transport infrastructure, and communications, the overall development of the country. the customer placing orders for manufacture outsourcing will be interested in the quality of manufactured products and low risks. formation of the country as a successful manufacturing outsourcing will take place if it has industrialized regions, cities-centers of innovation characterized by a large number of industrial enterprises and research institutions; effective public support; developed business environment in the country and its regions. unfortunately, ukraine has not found its place in the outsourcing market yet. the high level of corruption, economic and political instability repel foreign companies from placing outsourcing orders in ukraine. it-outsourcing is the only sector in which ukraine has succeeded. it is done due to the high intellectual potential of national experts and the possibility to develop this activity without significant investment costs. but ukraine should evolve towards the provision of outsourcing services in other activities. ukraine could become a powerful manufacturing outsourcer because it has a large number of industrial companies that have production facilities, skilled workers and engineers. the development of manufacturing outsourcing will improve the economic situation of the enterprises and promote the development of the national economy. methodology and research methods. it has been considered an important scientific problem such as the search for an effective way to intensify the innovative development of ukrainian industrial enterprises. this should happen due to their entry into the global market of manufacturing outsourcing. this is a new approach to innovative development as previously scientists have suggested that companies provide it on their own or at the funds of investors but not through a long-term strategic partnership like outsourcing. in order to ensure the innovative development of the ukrainian industrial enterprises in the global manufacturing outsourcing market, it is expedient to use the following methods [11, glushak, n., glushak, o. et al., 2016]: analysis, that is the division of the object of research, that means the innovative development of the the ukrainian industrial enterprises at the global manufacturing outsourcing market into its components to improve the knowledge of the process and phenomena being studied; synthesis, which is the combination of difficulties and opportunities of the ukrainian industrial enterprises into a single whole in order to establish their possibilities for innovation development with the help of manufacturing outsourcing at the global market; theoretical generalization, that helps to make general conclusions and develop some recommendations and show the result of the research for the release of the ukrainian industrial enterprises to the global market of manufacturing outsourcing to ensure their innovative development; comparison, that is, calculation of the rate of the ukrainian enterprises' development by the main macroeconomic indicators and determining the dynamics of their changes; statistical analysis, that is used for converting empirical data obtained during the study into the meaningful analysis, hypothesis testing and interpretation; expert evaluation, which enables to describe the qualitative characteristics of the investigated process. the theoretical basis of the study is the works of scientists on the implementation of outsourcing in the activities of enterprises, data of rating agencies and statistical information. the aim of the article is to develop recommendations for the release of ukrainian industrial enterprises in the global market of manufacturing outsourcing to ensure their innovative development. for this purpose, the article proposes to investigate how the implementation of outsourcing orders will facilitate the transfer of innovations; identify the main types of industrial outsourcing; determine the criteria by which enterprises should choose a type of outsourcing for supply to customers. results. development of the ukrainian economy requires new approaches to business organization. old methods and forms of management can’t provide sustainable development. we can estimate an economic situation in ukraine using international rankings. ukraine has rank 71 among 190 countries according to one of the most famous rankings doing business that characterize ease of business performance in different countries of the world [6, 2019]. another ranking global competitiveness index gives a rank 83 to ukraine among 140 countries [10, schwab, k., 2018]. it assesses the microeconomic and macroeconomic foundations of national competitiveness, which is defined as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. according to the similar world competitiveness ranking developed by the world competitiveness center ukraine's rank looks worse, it’s only 59th theoretical and scientifical journal 24 no. 2 / 2019 out of 63 countries [13, 2018]. this index is an annual study of global competitiveness, assesses and analysis of the countries’ ability to create and maintain an environment in which enterprises may effectively compete. we can see that world researchers don’t see ukraine as a competitive, developed and attractive country for doing business. this situation reduces its image as an economic partner in the international arena. it obstructs the establishment of sustainable economic relations and attraction of investments. it’s especially reflected in the activities of industrial enterprises due to the deterioration of political relations with some ex-ussr countries, lost regular customers of their products and remained without stable contracts. the industrial sector of the ukrainian economy is characterized by a large number of economic entities and has strategic significance for our state providing majority people with their positions. there are 2,386 business entities in the industry in ukraine. among them, there are 42,026 enterprises and 81,850 private entrepreneurs. the industry provides the position with 2,334.2 thousand people, but after of the crisis in ukraine, the number of employees in the industry decreases annually. using the advice of experts [21, 2019], we can compare this situation with 2011 when industrial enterprises of ukraine employed 3,031.7 thousand people. the number of sales in recent years has been stable but increased last year. according to the great inflation, one can say about inhibition of sales. therefore, one can conclude that there is a deceleration of the development in the industrial sector of ukraine and the high probability of a largescale crisis in this sector of the economy. particularly disappointing is the annual decrease in the number of large industrial enterprises which provide a significant number of position and a major share of output. successful operation of industrial enterprises must be supported by the high-quality personnel which has professional knowledge and skills inclined to innovate and have intellectual, scientific and technical potential. unfortunately, industrial enterprises cannot provide sufficient wages. using official statistics [21, 2019], we can see that the average wages in the industry are uah 10,236 per month. it hasn’t promoted the attraction of highly skilled personnel in this area recently. lack of interest to the enterprises' results and high-skilled personnel inflows causes lack of innovation development and improvement of labor efficiency. the efficiency of industrial enterprises depends on the availability and conditions of the necessary fixed assets. wear factor is 58% now, that could lead to a technical crisis at the industrial enterprises. the renovation of fixed assets at industrial enterprises requires significant investments. also, we can see the low innovative activity of industrial enterprises. only 14,3% of industrial enterprises implemented innovations in 2017 [21, 2019]. 1,831 new technological processes were implemented, including 748 low-consumption and resource-saving ones, and the launch of 2,387 items of innovative products, including 751 new types of equipment this year. however, the share of implemented innovative products in the volume of industrial goods is still a fairly low share, only 0,7%. and, as it has been proved by official statistic information [21, 2019], since 2000 this indicator has decreased almost 10 times. this suggests the backlog of domestic industrial enterprises from the global scientific and technological progress and their low attention to the introduction of the latest technological advancements in the production and updating of products. this can lead to a technological crisis at the industrial enterprises. there is a negative trend of decreasing investments in innovation development. the total amount of costs for innovation activity was uah 9,117.5 in 2017 [21, 2019]. to compare with 2016, these costs were uah 23,229.5 in 2016. the largest amount of money – uah 5,898.8 – was spent on the purchase of machines, equipment, and software [21, 2019]. the main source of financing remains in the own funds of enterprises is not enough to update the innovative potential of ukrainian industry under current conditions. the world intellectual property organization, cornell university, and the insead international business school annually calculate the global innovation index that takes into account such indicators as human capital, development of education, business environment, availability of intangible assets and number of intellectual workers. according to the global innovation index [23, dutta, s., et al., 2018], ukraine has rank 43 among 126 countries of the world. this rank is very low taking into account a great number of industrial enterprises, research organizations, and universities situated in ukraine. on the basis of the analysis, it is possible to make some conclusions about the high probability of crisis phenomena at industrial enterprises. the deterioration of the financial activity of enterprises has an impact on the development of the financial crisis. it is accompanied by reduction insolvency and the possibility of economy and sociology 25 no. 2 / 2019 attracting investment resources that are necessary for enterprises. lack of labor resources and low wages can lead to a reduction in labor productivity and employee interests in companies’ development that could indicate the organizational crisis. violations of economic relationships, the absence of new supply channels and markets can lead to a sales crisis. therefore, talking about the innovative development of domestic industrial enterprises one can say that it’s very difficult today because it requires significant financial infusions. it will be almost impossible for the enterprises to get out of a crisis and restore their innovative potential by themselves, therefore, it is necessary to seek help from the third parties. considering outsourcing as a way of industrial enterprises innovation development it’s necessary to pay more attention to the concept of innovation. innovations are newly created and improved competitive technologies, products or services, as well as organizational and technical decisions of an industrial, administrative, commercial or other nature that significantly improve the structure and quality of production and the social sphere. objects of innovation activity are: innovative programs and projects; new knowledge and intelligent products; production equipment and processes; infrastructure of production and entrepreneurship; organizational and technical decisions of an industrial, administrative, commercial or other nature that significantly improve the structure and quality of production and social sphere; raw materials, means of their extraction and processing; commodity products; mechanism of formation the consumer market and marketing of commodity products. innovative development is based on the continuous search and use of new ways and areas of realizing the potential of the enterprise in changing environmental conditions within the framework of the chosen mission and the accepted motivation of activities related to the modification of existing and the formation of new markets. innovation activity is aimed at the use and commercialization of the results of research and development and promotes the launch of new competitive products and services on the market. as it was mentioned, it would be very difficult for ukrainian industrial enterprises to provide innovation development on their own. therefore, it’s necessary to get long-term business agreements with leaders of scientific and technological progress. ukrainian enterprises can offer to their partners themselves as industrial outsourcers. foreign companies will be able to reduce the cost of the production process due to its partial or full implementation in ukraine, and ukrainian enterprises will receive experience, investment, technology, personnel training, etc. the customer of outsourcing services has financial, material and intellectual resources. by concluding a long-term contract for transferring part or the entire production process to an outsourcer in additional to the order he transfers his intellectual capital first of all. as a result, the outsourcer makes an innovative breakthrough in introducing technological, product, organizational, process and other innovations. in addition, if the customer is interested in a long-term partnership, he can become an investor in the outsourcer, help him with the organization of logistics and staff training. there are good preconditions for the entry of ukrainian industrial enterprises in the global outsourcing market. most machine-building enterprises or research institutions in ukraine were created in ussr times. almost all of them were not economic entities with a closed cycle of production but engaged in the development and production of individual parts and units. the final product was the result of the work of a large number of enterprises located in different parts of the former ussr. for example, the kharkiv machine-building plant "fed" produced hydraulic, fuel and electric systems for aviation engineering. some units were supplied to the “rubin” plant located in the moscow region. "rubin" manufactured runways, hydro units and hydro systems for airplanes and other aircraft. its products were supplied to aviation and helicopter factories of the ussr, located in voronezh, kaliningrad, kyiv, lviv and other cities, and back in kharkiv – to the kharkiv aviation plant. aircraft design was provided by separate organizations: antonov (kyiv), tupolev (moscow), mikoyan (moscow), sukhoi (moscow). also the production of fed plant was supplied to the motor sich plant, which produced engines for airplanes and helicopters for all aircraft and helicopters factories throughout the ussr. we can say that domestic industrial enterprises were created as production outsourcers, or endproducers, which transferred part of the production cycle for outsourcing to other enterprises of the ussr. the economic ties created at that time remained until 2014. however, at the moment, with the violation of diplomatic relations with russia and the inability to interact in the defense industry and scientific and technical cooperation, ukrainian enterprises were in a situation where the final products themselves can’t produce, and the production chain of several enterprises is broken. therefore, today the way out of this theoretical and scientifical journal 26 no. 2 / 2019 situation is possible only through the search for customers to perform part of production processes from europe and asia and the establishment of new economic ties. today manufacturing outsourcing is an opportunity for economic recovery and innovation development of ukraine. there are several directions of the possible way to the global market of manufacturing outsourcing for ukrainian enterprises (fig. 1). we can define four types of manufacturing outsourcing, such as research and development outsourcing, certain parts of the production process outsourcing, assembly operations outsourcing and full manufacturing outsourcing. ukrainian industrial enterprises could be competitive in the global outsourcing market if they chose the most suitable type of outsourcing to offer to customer. we highlight preconditions of use of each type of manufacturing outsourcing and possible difficulties that the enterprise may face. also, we provide some examples of successful providing of outsourcing services below to customer. there is a considerable number of scientific research institutes in ukraine since the times of the ussr. they may become competitive in the outsourcing market of research and development activities. the specifics of such institutions still remain wide. there is institute of mono crystals, institute of mechanical engineering of the national academy of sciences of ukraine, o.y. usikov institute for radiophysics and electronics, national science center "kharkiv institute of physics and technology", kharkiv scientific research and design institute "energoproekt", institute of radio astronomy of the national academy of sciences of ukraine, etc. in kharkiv (ukraine). however, not all of them, unfortunately, have sustained economic ties, commercialization of their developments and participation in international production outsourcing projects. a successful example is a project of creating a space system for global monitoring of the dynamic processes in the earth's ionosphere, as part of the european gmes program, the space weather program sw and the global geoss system. the main executor of the project in ukraine is space research institute national academy of sciences of ukraine. also we can mention the implementation of the sea launch project by the international company. launch vehicle zenit developed by the design office yuzhnoye and manufactured at the production association yuzhny machine-building plant named after a.m. makarov was used as part of the floating missile and space complex. 36 launches of zenit-3sl launch vehicles with spacecraft for telecommunication purposes were established on the naval platform from april 1999 to december 2014 [5, 2019]. this project is an example of ukrainian enterprises’ action as outsourcers at research and development work, as well as parts of the production process. unfortunately, the participation of ukrainian research institutes in such projects is not a widespread practice. it’s necessary to provide the training of ukrainian scientists in internships in innovative world countries and the development of international scientific and technical cooperation. it is advisable to carry out certain parts of the production outsourcing process for enterprises that have sufficient production capacity and qualified personnel, but don’t have a closed production cycle or their final products are uncompetitive but individual nodes, aggregates or production processes are executed at a high level. such enterprises are the majority of the machine-building enterprises of the former ussr. the powerful enterprise of defense complex state enterprise "malyshev plant" produced diesel engines 6td-2 for the upgraded version of al-khalid tank, which was developed by the chinese company norinco and pakistani heavy industries. the tank was manufactured almost entirely on the production facilities of pakistan except for the engine as ukraine is capable of manufacturing one of the most reliable models of tank engines working in a hot climate. the ukrainian engines are also popular for airplanes. a well-known manufacturer of engines for airplanes and helicopters motor sich produced engines for ukrainian and russian enterprises for a long time. however, due to the political situation in ukraine the company finds new markets. motor sich and the south african company paramount group signed a memorandum of cooperation on the joint modernization of military helicopters mi-24 super hind. companies will explore the possibility of technology exchange. also, paramount group is interested in expanding its cooperation with ukraine in the production and repair the helicopter engines. in its turn, motor sich is extremely interested in technologies related to the production of composite blades for helicopter screws. at the same time, motor sich actively cooperates with china providing aircraft engines ai-222k-25, ai-222k-25f and component parts for an l-15 aircraft. the company manufactures, tests, maintains and repairs 55 types and engine modifications for 61 types of aircraft and helicopters of different purposes, operated in 109 countries of the world now [20, 2019]. economy and sociology 27 no. 2 / 2019 figure 1. involvement of the ukrainian industrial enterprises as manufacture outsourcers source: made by authors. assembly outsourcing operations that is the final stage of the production process is appropriate for enterprises located near the market of products. it’s relevant for products which importation into ukraine is inconvenient and economically inappropriate given the heavy transportation and significant customs duties. cars are the kind of such products. as an example, one can mention the production of the czech brand "skoda" cars at the ukrainian company eurocar. eurocar is the official producer of vw group cars in ukraine that is part of the atoll holding group of companies. the plant was opened in december 2001. eurocar produces the whole range of the brand "skoda" cars at the moment. the enterprise carries out full-scale production of cars, which includes such major production processes as welding, painting, and assembly of automobiles. the production capacities m a n u fa c tu r in g o u ts o u r c in g t y p e s research and development outsourcing creation of innovation centers on the basis of current research institutes and industrial enterprises which include design offices that provide research and development services to foreign organizations certain parts of the production process outsourcing production at the current industrial enterprises of some parts, components, assemblies for the end product of foreign consumers using partner’s technology assembly operations outsourcing completion on the basis of domestic enterprises the production cycle of famous brands. the high-tech and innovative operations are performed abroad and technology doesn’t transfer to ukrainian enterprises. the products produced will be sold in ukraine full manufacturing outsourcing the full implementation of the manufacturing process using technology of the foreign client that has a famous brand. the products produced will be sold both in ukraine and abroad preconditions of use. the large number of engineering and technical workers with higher education and academic degree; branched structure of research institutes and design offices; low investments for start-up activities possible difficulties. backlog applied technology and research laboratory equipment from the latest world achievements, low motivation of scientific and technical staff in professional growth, lack of training opportunities and internships preconditions of use. current production capacity of the ukrainian industries, no need for the organization of production "from scratch", enough workers and engineers possible difficulties. depreciation of production facilities, the need for personnel training, the need for production modernization and new technologies development preconditions of use. existing production capacity of domestic industry and working staff skilled at a level sufficient to perform assembly operations. large sales market in ukraine possible difficulties. low purchasing power, the need for gradually scaling up production capacity to reduce the risk of a glut of supply preconditions of use. current enterprises with a closed production cycle that can’t increase their competitiveness according to on absence of the new technologies in their practice, lack of technological equipment, uncertainty of their own brand possible difficulties. large risk of reproduction of a full production cycle technologies developed by foreign experts, its adaptation to the local production conditions, the risks of setting up the organization and management of production theoretical and scientifical journal 28 no. 2 / 2019 of the plant allow to produce up 100 thousand cars per year and give an opportunity to increase the level of localization of cars produced with the prospect of export development. welding and dyeing are carried out by the equipment of such well-known companies as transsystem (poland), chropynska strojirna (czech republic), eisenmann (germany) [9, 2019]. creating such a production plant is relatively simple since production capacity is only needed to complete the production process such as welding, painting, and installation. the main preliminary work on manufacturing units and assemblies is carried out at the enterprises of the czech republic and slovakia. this project is of great importance for the development of such ukraine's scientific and technical potential as technologies are being transferred along with production to the enterprise that will help to improve the skills of ukrainian specialists. provision of full outsourcing services is possible for enterprises that have all the necessary resources to carry out the entire production cycle or the major part of it and don’t produce their own products because of its non-competitiveness or no known on the market. in this case, it is more appropriate to take orders for the production of branded products by the technology of the original manufacturer. this may include the possibility of upgrading production capacities, mastering the latest proven technologies and upgrading staff skills. the complete production process for outsourcing was transferred by daewoo motors to avtozaz. daewoo motors acted as an investor of avtozaz. in 1998 it was invested $150 million in its authorized capital. in addition to investments daewoo motors has provided new technologies, unique quality control systems and own engineering developments. due to this action there was provided a renovation of production, buildings, energy supply systems, engineering structures and networks at factories in zaporizhzhya, melitopol, chernomorsk, organized quality control of products according to the world standards; the production of tavriya nova was restored after modernization at the main plant in zaporizhzhya; administrative personnel policy was changed. the restoration of the enterprise and bringing its technological base to the world standards was a contribution to the further attraction of new investments as a result of cooperation with daimler chrysler, general motors, opel, renault, etc. the result of this cooperation was the mass production of well-known cars in ukraine: daewoo lanos, daewoo sens, chevrolet aveo [1, 2019]. this example shows how an enterprise that produces uncompetitive products and owns an unremarkable brand decides to renounce its own name and manufacture cars of other well-known brand and became a leader in the automotive industry in ukraine for decades. the ukrainian industrial enterprises have a lot of opportunities to enter the global outsourcing market successfully. the provision of outsourcing services helps to attract foreign investments and technologies. successful outsource enterprises may become leading producers of their industry, create their own brands, begin to produce products focused both on the domestic market and delivered to export. participation in international outsourcing agreements has national importance due to creating new jobs, growth workers’ welfare, the inflow of foreign currency funds from abroad. also, the outsourcing should be mentioned as an instrument of transfer of technologies and the activation of innovation activity of industrial enterprises. we can see how to choose of the type of manufacturing outsourcing and ways of innovative development depending on characteristics of the enterprises in fig. 2. industrial enterprises can intensify their innovative activities by obtaining outsourcing orders from high technology enterprises. we can see that enterprises that have closed production cycle and well-known brand should produce goods under their own brand. in this case, their innovation development will be provided by their own resources. but for enterprises not known on the market, this way isn’t available. they have to manufacture products of famous brands at their production facilities to provide themselves with orders. but the customer transfers his intellectual capital to the outsourcer in addition to his order. innovative development, in this case, is provided by transferring the technological process, personnel training, re-equipment of production facilities. industrial enterprises that could provide only some parts of the manufacturing cycle may be competitive in other types of outsourcing. some of them that have significant scientific and technical potential should provide services of research and development outsourcing. in this case, innovative development is provided by scientific and technical cooperation, exchange of experience, assistance in equipping laboratories, research bases. if the enterprise has only manufacturing potential, it could provide economy and sociology 29 no. 2 / 2019 services of certain parts of the production process outsourcing. but if it located next to the market of products it is advisable to offer services of assembly operations outsourcing. innovative development will be provided by sharing experience, development of new technologies, re-equipment of production facilities and staff development. we conducted a study of choice the type of manufacturing outsourcing for some ukrainian industrial enterprises. we used data of official websites of enterprises and the results of the survey of employees of enterprises. the results of the study are in table 1. each indicator was evaluated on a scale from one to five. table 1 the choice of the type of manufacturing outsourcing of ukrainian industrial enterprises enterprise ability to carry out a closed production cycle well-known brand in the market significant scientific and technical potential location next to the market of products recommended type of manufacturing outsourcing xtz (kharkiv tractor plant) 5 4 4 4 production under its own brand kharkiv aviation plant 2 4 5 3 research and development outsourcing tinyakova garment factory 5 1 3 3 full manufacturing outsourcing eurocar 1 1 3 5 assembly operations outsourcing malyshev plant 3 2 3 3 certain parts of the production process outsourcing source: made by authors based on [1, 2019; 9, 2019; 20, 2019]. the analysis provided in table 1 helps industrial enterprises to choose the recommended type of manufacturing outsourcing that makes the company occupy a competitive position in the global market for manufacturing outsourcing. conclusions. the main idea of the article is that for the ukrainian industrial enterprises one of the most effective ways of innovation development is to active offer of their services in the global manufacturing outsourcing market. ukraine has a good chance to become a successful outsourcing country according to high intellectual and personal potential, the existing material base and the low cost of services offered. outsourcing contracts will help to attract investment in industrial development, provide an exchange of experience and technology with leading world countries. ukrainian industrial enterprises can offer foreign customers research and development outsourcing, certain parts of the manufacturing process outsourcing, assembly operations outsourcing and full manufacturing outsourcing. the scientific result of the study is the development of recommendations on the choice of type of manufactural outsourcing that is advisable for ukrainian industrial enterprises to enter the global industrial outsourcing market. enterprises need to assess the strength of their own brand, the ability to implement a closed production cycle on their own production facilities, their scientific and technological potential and proximity to markets to choose a type of outsourcing. the results of the research can be used by industrial enterprises in strategic management, business organization forms selection and outsourcing contracts. the results can be also used to develop a methodology for assessing the attractiveness of industrial enterprises as manufactural outsourcer in the future. theoretical and scientifical journal 30 no. 2 / 2019 economy and sociology 31 no. 2 / 2019 references 1. avtozaz company. 2019. 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[accesat 23.05.2019]. disponibil: http://www.tholons.com/top50.html 25. zagorodniy, a.h., patryn, h.o. autsorcing and its impact on the cost of enterprise. in: finance of ukraine. 2009, vol. 9 (166), pp. 87-97. issn 2305-7645. article history received 09 september 2019 accepted 24 september 2019 http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2018/competitiveness-rankings https://worldcompetitiveness.imd.org/ https://www.yuzhnoye.com/en/home http://www.doingbusiness.org/en/rankings https://ru.skoda-auto.ua/company/about http://www3.weforum.org/docs/gcr2018/05fullreport/theglobalcompetitivenessreport2018.pdf https://www.shs-conferences.org/articles/shsconf/pdf/2016/06/shsconf_rptss2016_01041.pdf https://www.shs-conferences.org/articles/shsconf/pdf/2016/06/shsconf_rptss2016_01041.pdf file:///c:/users/angela.catana/desktop/:%20https:/www.imd.org/wcc/world-competitiveness-center-rankings/world-competitiveness-ranking-2018/ file:///c:/users/angela.catana/desktop/:%20https:/www.imd.org/wcc/world-competitiveness-center-rankings/world-competitiveness-ranking-2018/ http://itonews.eu/ https://www.markminevich.com/pdf/wb_final.pdf https://ukrstat.org/en/menu/publikac_e.htm https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/userfiles/file/reportpdf/gii_2018-report-new.pdf http://www.tholons.com/top50.html economy and sociology 29 december no. 2/2020 potential effects of finance 4.0 on the employment in east africa imre vida1, phd student szent istván university, hungary endre spaller2, phd student széchenyi istván university, hungary lászló vasa3, habilitation in economics, research professor széchenyi istván university, hungary doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-03 jel classification: e24, f65, g21, g23, n17, n37 udc: 336+331.57(06) abstract two of the five fastest-growing economies in the world were in the east african region in 2019. the region’s share within the economic growth of africa rose from less than 20% in 2018 to more than 32% in 2019. despite the difficulties in 2020 the eastern part of africa seems to be keeping its status as the continent’s fastest-growing region. digitalization and the connected structural transformation is one of the main drivers of growth in the services sector worldwide. in this study we analyze the status and movements of industry 4.0 and finance 4.0 developments and their effects on the employment in the east african region. we found three main approaches based on the literature sources on africa's future industrial development ways. in case of finance 4.0, countries like uganda or kenya reached considerable results in financial inclusion; thus, east african economies and societies now have an improved access to international financial markets. another significant development is east africa’s status as global leader in mobile money services, increasing broad access to financial services. with the help of digital solutions, entrepreneurs and businesses can reconsider their business models which can be more competitive, sustainable, and better connected to other sectors of the economy. in this paper we investigated the macroand micro-level effects of the digitalization on the employment and identified the possible scenarios. our conclusion is that with affordable and stable finance 4.0 solutions and a strong institutional framework, east african enterprises can reduce poverty, increase employment and stimulate inclusive growth. keywords: finance 4.0, east-africa, employment, financial inclusion, industry 4.0, mobile money. două dintre cele cinci economii cu cea mai rapidă creștere din lume s-au aflat în regiunea africii de est în 2019. cota regiunii în creșterea economică a africii a crescut de la mai puțin de 20% în 2018 la peste 32% în 2019. în ciuda dificultăților din 2020 partea de est a africii pare să-și păstreze statutul de regiune cu cea mai rapidă creștere a continentului. digitalizarea și transformarea structurală conectată este unul dintre principalii factori de creștere în sectorul serviciilor la nivel mondial. în acest studiu analizăm situația și mișcările dezvoltărilor industriei 4.0 și finanțelor 4.0 și efectele acestora asupra ocupării forței de muncă în regiunea africii de est. au fost identificate trei abordări principale bazate pe surse de literatură privind viitoarele căi de dezvoltare industrială ale africii. în cazul finanțării 4.0, țările ca uganda sau kenya au atins rezultate considerabile în ceea ce privește incluziunea financiară; astfel, economiile și societățile din africa de est au acum un acces îmbunătățit la piețele financiare internaționale. o altă evoluție semnificativă este statutul africii de est ca lider global în servicii de bani mobili, sporind accesul larg la servicii financiare. cu ajutorul soluțiilor digitale, antreprenorii și întreprinderile își pot reconsidera modelele de afaceri care pot fi mai competitive, durabile și mai bine conectate la alte sectoare ale economiei. în această lucrare am investigat efectele la nivel macro și micro 1 id orcid 0000-0001-8089-9703 e-mail: info@vidaimre.hu 2 id orcid 0000-0002-9262-3365 e-mail: spaller.endre@kifu.gov.hu 3 id orcid 0000-0002-3805-0244 e-mail: vasalaszlo@gmail.com theoretical and scientifical journal 30 december no. 2/2020 ale digitalizării asupra ocupării forței de muncă și am identificat scenariile posibile. concluzia noastră este: cu soluții de finanțare 4.0 accesibile și stabile și un cadru instituțional puternic, întreprinderile din africa de est pot reduce sărăcia, pot crește ocuparea forței de muncă și pot stimula o creștere favorabilă incluziunii. cuvinte-cheie: finanțe 4.0, africa de est, ocuparea forței de muncă, incluziune financiară, industrie 4.0, bani mobili. две из пяти самых быстрорастущих экономик мира находились в регионе восточной африки в 2019 году. доля региона в экономическом росте африки выросла с менее, чем на 20% в 2018 году до более, чем 32% в 2019 году. несмотря на трудности в 2020 году, восточная часть африки, сохраняет свой статус самого быстрорастущего региона континента. цифровизация и связанная структурная трансформация являются одними из основных драйверов роста в секторе услуг во всем мире. в этом исследовании мы анализируем состояние и динамику развития индустрии 4.0 и финансов 4.0, а также их влияние на занятость в регионе восточной африки. мы нашли три основных подхода на основе литературных источников о будущих путях промышленного развития африки. в случае «финансы 4.0» такие страны, как уганда или кения, достигли значительных результатов в финансовой доступности; таким образом, экономика и общества восточной африки теперь имеют улучшенный доступ к международным финансовым рынкам. еще одно важное событие – это статус восточной африки как мирового лидера в сфере услуг мобильных денег, что расширило широкий доступ к финансовым услугам. с помощью цифровых решений предприниматели и предприятия могут пересмотреть свои бизнес-модели, которые могут стать более конкурентоспособными, устойчивыми и лучше связанными с другими секторами экономики. в этой статье мы исследовали макрои микроуровневое влияние цифровизации на занятость и определили возможные сценарии. мы пришли к выводу, что с помощью доступных и стабильных финансовых решений 4.0 и прочной институциональной базы восточноафриканские предприятия могут сократить бедность, увеличить занятость и стимулировать инклюзивный рост. ключевые слова: финансы 4.0, восточная африка, занятость, финансовая доступность, промышленность 4.0, мобильные деньги. introduction in 2019, two of the five fastest-growing economies in the world were in the east african region (ethiopia and rwanda). based on the analysis of the prestigious brookings institute, this region’s share within the economic growth of africa rose from less than 20% in 2018 to more than 32% in 2019 [23]. even though the year 2020 seems to be a kind of disaster in terms of economic performance, the african development bank (afdb) forecasts that the eastern part of africa is keeping its status as the continent’s fastest-growing region [2]. according to the afdb, agriculture’s contribution to the region’s gross domestic product decreased from 33.4% in the early 2000s to 28.3% in 2018. instead, the vibrant and fast-growing services sector performed more than half (53.8%) of the east africa’s gdp. this shift in the economies generates new and restructured employment opportunities. according to the africa prosperity report by legatum institute [26], the number of employment opportunities in east africa’s services sector increased to more than double between 2000 and 2020. digitalization and the connected structural transformation is one of the main drivers of growth in the services sector worldwide. the world bank estimates that connecting every african business, individual and government to digital technologies in the frame of the single digital market by 2030 can boost growth by up to 2% per year and reduce poverty by 1% per year [44]. literature review current status of industry 4.0 in east africa we can identify three main approaches in the literature on africa's future industrial development ways. technological revolution plays a crucial role in each of these concepts: 1) the technological change is too fast and complex for african countries to benefit from it promptly; at least economy and sociology 31 december no. 2/2020 15 years needed for completing the necessary investments and developing the appropriate business ecosystems in the continent [6]; 2) technological revolution is changing the nature and base of manufacturing and services, making services sector the focal point for structural adjustments [32]; 3) the new and emerging technological developments encourage and upgrade the african manufacturing with the help of high-tech start-up firms [29]. the industry 4.0 implementation in east africa is based mainly on transcontinental efforts [3]. in africa, the commitment to industry 4.0 can be identified on the different program initiatives launched recently: “smart africa”, “one africa network” and “eu-au digital task force”. smart africa program focusing on whole africa, was initiated by the east african community (eac) in 2013. industry 4.0 demands upgraded employee skills and competencies, including ict knowledge, inter-, trans-, and multidisciplinary competencies, and special personal qualities. moreover, in addition of industry 4.0 digitalization base, knowledge and skills in ict sector are necessary as these are the ground for the digital transformation. however, the poor ict infrastructural environment in east african countries is therefore one of the major challenges which are making barriers for governments to adopt the industry 4.0 in a rapid way [28]. so, ict adoption among the eac countries (rwanda, kenya, uganda, tanzania, burundi, and south sudan) was realized parallel with industry 4.0. in 2012, the east african community (eac), covering burundi, kenya, rwanda, south sudan, tanzania and uganda, announced its 2012-2032 industrialisation policy. the strategy is targeting to establish a market-driven, competitive and balanced industrial sector which relies on the advantages of east africa [11]. kenya is one of the few countries in africa that achieved the lower middle-income status already [40]. in the business terminology of the new digital economy kenya is called africa’s “silicon savanah” [24]. the reason for this analogy is the presence of a very strong and well-focused ict policy with its flagship program vision 2030. moreover, the advanced technology in the mobile money system such as m-pesa is a real pioneer in this field. the m-pesa (means mobile money) revolution has created kenya’s digital space and positioned the country ahead of other developing countries regarding the implementation, use and development of digital technology [35]. m-pesa is a mobile payment platform introduced and started in 2007 as a cooperation of safaricom, commercial bank of africa, and commercial banks in kenya [31]. another remarkable milestone in the kenyan digital industry was the successful development of a virtual money savings platform called “m-shwari” which has been spread out in the whole east african region, with “m-pawa” in tanzania and “mokash” in uganda and rwanda. within the kenyan ict policy framework, a government digital payments taskforce was launched, the ecitizen. in spite of the strong and committed ict policy of kenya, the implementation strategy and details of the industry 4.0 is not clear yet. rwanda is one of the three african countries (besides morocco and south africa) that started to develop industry 4.0 strategy alongside its ict policies and created technology centres [12]. the rwandese government established the “centre for the internet of things” in partnership with inmarsat, the global mobile satellite communications provider [41]. the initiative’s focus is on helping the learning capabilities and skills of students, developing iot prototypes and to conducting academic research in prospective iot solutions. in addition, it tries to speed up the implementation of the iot and smart city results. the country’s first ict policy framework was the smart rwanda master plan 2015-2020; some initiatives have been generated and realized by both the government and private sector. the major ict innovative initiatives of uganda are: rwanda’s ict hub strategy 2024, digital ambassadors program, irembo platform, kigali innovation city. the clever ict policy has significantly contributed to the integration of rwanda’s cultural and creative industry to the global economic systems [22]. the new “made in rwanda” policy is an all-inclusive strategic plan targeting the stimulation of competitiveness by improving the domestic market by the value chain development. these initiatives serve the main goal to develop rwanda into an upper middle-income country by 2035 and higher income country by 2050 [29]. this new policy has the capacity to push and promote industry 4.0 adoption and implementation in the country. uganda developed its strategic plan “vision 2040” where the main focus is on industrialization. despite of the clear and set macro vision, the country’s national industrial policy still does not prioritize manufacturing, meaning the manufacturing sector remains less competitive with mainly theoretical and scientifical journal 32 december no. 2/2020 focusing on agriculture related processing and low-value manufacturing [13]. the government of uganda seems to be committed for developing a digital vision for the country and elaborated the digital uganda vision (duv) program. the duv is a comprehensive framework that is driven by from the vision 2040 macro vision and provides a complete set of ict policies [17]. this policy package is directed by the ministry of ict which was established specifically for supporting the growth and deployment of the ict sector in uganda. for ict ministry staff special knowledge is provided on industry 4.0 technologies including as blockchain technologies, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing. furthermore, the blockchain association of uganda as non-governmental organization has been founded and the government related nakawa innovation ict hub has been established [34]. these developments demonstrate uganda’s commitment to the development of industry 4.0 related fields, however, there is still much to be done by uganda to catch up with the mainstream. tanzania is doing serious efforts for improving its industrial sector’s productivity and competitiveness. these steps are coordinated by the 5th phase of the government plan under in the frame of vision 2025 strategic program [1]. tanzania has a well-established ict policy; however, concrete steps are still missing [36]. the potential positive impacts of ict in tanzanian context are predominantly in industrial agriculture and company business processes (mwantinwa, 2019). tanzania hosts the joint initiative of east african community and the german federal ministry for economic cooperation and development (bmz), the centre of excellence for ict in east africa (cenit@ea) which has been launched in 2019. the main aim of this centre is to provide industry 4.0 relevant skills, capabilities, and knowledge for supporting the digital transformation. this initiative is essential for setting up well-based digital skills needed for the tanzanian economy and society, therefore providing an appropriate environment and frame for industry 4.0 implementation. burundi and south sudan. due to the unstable political environment, these two east african countries have failed to take any steps towards developing their economy and society with the toolset of industry 4.0 [43], the development visions of these two countries are mainly focusing on peace and stability. table 1 strategic vision of the eac member states member state time frame strategic vision uganda vision 2040 transform ugandan society from peasant to a modern prosperous country kenya vision 2030 globally competitive and prosperous kenya with a high quality of life rwanda vision 2020 vision 2050 become a middle-income country by 2020 high standard of living tanzania vision 2025 high quality of life anchored on peace, stability, unity, and good governance; rule of law, resilient economy, and competitiveness south sudan vision 2040 realizing freedom, equality, justice, peace, and prosperity for all burundi vision 2025 sustainable peace and stability and achievement of global development commitments in line, millennium development goals eac vision 2050 attain a prosperous, competitive, secure and politically united east africa source: [7]. it is obvious from the above status reports that all the eac members have a strong ict policy initiative except burundi and south sudan. kenya and rwanda are the most advanced. table 2 demonstrates that the focus of ict initiatives is mainly on governance and services rather than industry and agriculture. concerning industry 4.0 initiatives, countries in east africa perform a quite low level of readiness, with exception of rwanda. economy and sociology 33 december no. 2/2020 table 2 initiatives in the eac launched within the ict policies country initiatives year funding uganda ict4agric 2017 – e-government (etax, mtrac, e-water) – public mobile money platform (mtn, airtel) 2009 public-private m-pesa 2007 private m-shwari, m-pawa, and mokasa 2012 private kenya government digital payments taskforce (ecitizen) or e-government – public primr (primary math and reading) 2011 public-private ict4d or e-government agency – public tanzania e-transparency 2009 public e-government strategy 2013 2013 public irembo e-government platform, one-stop e-government 2015 public-private digital ambassadors program (dap) 2019 public kigali innovation city (kic) 2016 public rwanda rwanda's ict hub strategy 2024 2019 public tap&go smartcard 2015 public-private smart city rwanda 2019 public source: [39] [7]. fintech in east africa innovations in financial sector, often referred to as “fintech”, is transforming the global financial sector drastically. since 2010, more than 50 billion usd has been invested in around 2,500 companies worldwide. this is meaning, fintech revolution forces us to rethink the ways how we store, save, invest, lend, mobilize, spend, send and protect money [37]. fintech is the key to supporting and accelerating significant improvements in financial system development experienced in the east african region over the last two decades. liberalization in financial sector, monetary policy frameworks and instruments reforms, and developments in the institutional environment provided a considerable expansion of banking and financial activities and outputs. some countries like uganda or kenya achieved significant progress in financial deepening and inclusion; as a result, this region now has an increased access to international financial markets. the arrival of pan-african banks resulted in a more intensive use of payment system tools such as debit and credit cards, but more remarkably, we can experience a robust growth in mobile payments in many east african countries – on a much different basis. however, financial systems and frameworks in east africa still cope with several barriers and financial inclusion remains a problem, limiting the opportunities for further improvements in sustainable growth, employment, and poverty eradication [4]. fintech is a major driver affecting the financial industry architecture in east africa. new technologies were and are developed and implemented in east africa with the potential to change the competitive circumstances in the financial sector. fintech provokes traditional banking methods and creates efficiency advantages unfolding the financial services value chain. nowadays, fintech is evolving as a technological gamechanger in east africa, upgrading financial inclusion and acting as a facilitator for innovation in other economic branches, e.g. agriculture and infrastructure [8]. east africa achieved the status of the global leader in mobile money services, stimulating broad access to basic and advanced financial services. while-east africa left behind the world in access to finance, several countries in the region are now forerunners globally. east africa is the leader in mobile money implementation and use. with appropriate and for costumers attractive pricing strategy, advanced regulation frameworks, and a technically reliable network, kenya is the most successful country in terms of the use of mobile money solutions [4]. theoretical and scientifical journal 34 december no. 2/2020 the technological background for the fintech products and services are well developed. the products and services developed in the field of fintech rely on global technological innovations. these include the following innovations (based on [20]): • mobile access and the internet link consumers to each other (person-to-person transactions). • big data and artificial intelligence provide the availability and analysis of databases having billions of observations of transactions and attributes; these can be used to improve design and personalize financial products and services. • distributed ledger technology (dlt) means a type of networking of independent computers to record, share, and synchronize transactions instead of having a centralized database. • cryptography improves the safety of electronic transactions and is the basis for smart contracts based on cryptocurrencies. mobile money developments in sub-saharan africa within africa, the east african region is the absolutely forerunner and leader in mobile money development and usage. while the use of mobile money in sub-saharan africa is a real success story, there is a wide range of differences among the countries (figure 1). east africa did it well and created an infrastructure that built on the real demand for mobile financial services in sub-saharan africa. they realized that the limitations in terms of financial inclusion and lack of traditional banking retail units can be solved only via mobile money systems. figure 1. mobile money developments in sub-saharan africa (mobile money transactions per 100.000 adults, 2019) source: [21]. the countries in east africa chose a telecom sector led regulatory scheme. in this solution, the telecommunication service provider cooperates with the financial regulatory body to develop the platform for mobile payments. this telecom-led model seems to be more successful in attracting clients than the bank-oriented model that is used by other sub-saharan africa countries. for regional distribution of alternative finance in sub-saharan africa see figure 2. economy and sociology 35 december no. 2/2020 figure 2. regional distribution of alternative finance in sub-saharan africa source: [5]. east african countries decided to select a single telecom provider that owns a dominant market share, which assured the initial critical volume of required to put mobile money over the niche level (for mobile money providers see table 3). so, instead of being a provider of a unique and exotic service with a small market share mobile money was getting the banking industry standard. in kenya, mobile network operator safaricom has a market share of around 70 percent; vodacom in tanzania has a share of around 50 percent. in uganda, mtn uganda and airtel uganda have almost the same market share (46 and 44 percent). this large market share makes it possible for most mobile money clients to use a single platform without having compatibility problems, from the other hand, this high market concentration raises competition law and consumer protection concerns. table 3 mobile payment systems deployed in the eac service provider burundi kenya rwanda s. sudan tanzania uganda africell money x airtel money x x x bk mvisa x dau-pesa x ecokash x ezeemoney x ezypersa x leo manoti x m-pesa x mhose x m-sente x mcash x micropay x mobicash x x x mtn mob'money x x orange money x payg platform x tangaza pesa x tigo cash x tigo pesa x vodacom m-pesa x source: [19]. 41% 24% 19% 12% 4% east africa west africa southern africa central africa north africa theoretical and scientifical journal 36 december no. 2/2020 east african countries, especially in the east african community, have national identification systems; these simplify and accelerate faster mobile payment adoption rates and allow more secure transactions. figure 3. mobile money versus traditional banking source: [10]. until recently, in east african economies, cash was dominant. in the region the credit cards and bank accounts penetration were low, traditional banking was limited. the mobile money revolution, initiated by the pioneer m-pesa and nowadays offered by several operators in the east african region, has transformed this situation dramatically and makes the ground for a new wave of financial inclusion that has now spread beyond the region and globally (figure 3). in the east african countries, there are significantly more mobile money accounts users than account holders with traditional banking institutions. the exceptions are south sudan, where mobile money is not yet licensed, and rwanda (figure 4). figure 4. penetration of financial institution accounts versus mobile money accounts source: [10]. 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 mobile money accounts per 1,000 adults traditional deposit accounts per 1,000 adults 7 56 37 9 21 33 1 73 31 39 51 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 burundi kenya rwanda south sudan tanzania uganda% o f a d u lt s o v e r t h e a g e o f 1 5 financial institution account mobile money account economy and sociology 37 december no. 2/2020 nonetheless, digital payments’ popularity rises rapidly in some countries: the use of digital payments among ugandan adults is 55 percent and 79 percent in kenya, however, remains limited in burundi [10]. moreover, there are several obstacles regarding international payments, including network interoperability and high transaction fees; this is a serious barrier for developing regional online services and the growth of e-commerce. methodology due to the lack of validated statistical sources and survey on this topic in the east african region, our research attempts to present the effects of the seemingly unstoppable expansion of finance 4.0 on employment in east africa relying primarily on secondary data sources and a comparative analysis of the literature published in the topic. using scenario analysis, we present these potential consequences at the micro and macro levels, as well as in terms of efficiency. results and discussion impact of industry 4.0 on finance sector finance 4.0, a subcategory of industry 4.0 can support the grow of the emerging and developing economies by over 6%, which takes about $3.7 trillion by 2025 [27]. more than 37% of the foreign direct investment flowing to the developing countries was technology-intensive investment. the fourth industrial revolution spread out to all industries with a rather positive impact. the financial services sector is also one of the sectors that is benefiting the power of industry 4.0 significantly. banking, insurance, mortgage, forex, stocks, and many other financial sectors are booming due to the positive impetus of digital innovation and financial process automation. according to [33], mobile based devices and tools are the new standard for banking activities. the developing regions like africa are becoming the major driver of mobile banking in the world. the blockchain technology based new crypto finance system will transform the financial sector in the near future. taking these in consideration, we can summarize the impact of industry 4.0 on financial services as follows [38]: • global financial transactions have become much faster • financial service charges were getting much cheaper • significant decrease of financial institutes’ operational costs • 0-24 easy access to financial services • easy handling of upgraded financial systems and surfaces • expanded use of robotics and artificial intelligence • a new era of marketing: more effective, more efficient, more targeted and tailored • effective and advanced customer service through bots at very low cost • reduced risks due to data-driven assessments • more advanced business intelligence • greater user service experience • diminished opportunities for leakages in funds and projects • more transparency and increased trust • no chance for human errors in financial activities • rise of new business domains, e.g. fintech, payment gateways • enhanced financial inclusion of the poor and disadvantaged people • more effective use of available assets and money • more efficient trading of stocks and forex • lowered number of scams and burglary • increased customer satisfaction • smart contracts powered by blockchain technology effects of finance 4.0 on the employment in east africa digitalization’s main benefit for economic growth is promoting inclusive finance and allowing the by banks not covered groups to join formal financial systems through electronic payments platforms and savings and credit supply technological platforms. moreover, with the help of digital solutions, entrepreneurs and businesses can reconsider their business models which can be more competitive, sustainable, and better connected to other sectors of the economy in this way. the fintech has impacts beyond the financial sector and affects the real sector and households, initiating theoretical and scientifical journal 38 december no. 2/2020 changes in business models across market segments. a good example for it kenya, where blockchain made the efficient verification of property records and transactions possible, and also enabled expanded access to credit in some previously informal sectors of the economy [16]. based on finance 4.0 technologies, there are very good opportunities for job creation in africa. mobile technologies and services generated 9 percent of gdp in sub-saharan africa and supported almost 2,05 million jobs (of which 650.000 formal jobs and 1,4 million in the informal spheres) in 2019. the gsm association forecasts that by 2023, mobile’s contribution will reach almost $185 billion, 9.1 percent of gdp [19]. given the informal sector is estimated to contribute 55 percent of subsaharan africa’s gdp [2] these tools can occur significant changes. increased financial inclusion contributes to greater capital accumulation and investment, so a vast potential for employment creation. since creating jobs for the increasing youth population is an urgent priority in east african countries, governments are hesitating to support technologies that endanger current jobs. some of the upcoming technologies will replace low-skilled workers with higher-skilled workers and constraining the involvement in the industry 4.0 to economies missing relevant skills [30]. therefore, east african governments should invest in education and reskilling programs to ensure that the new technology support and not replaces labor. employment in the context of finance 4.0 macro level effects if we investigate the effects of the technological jump in the finance sector on the macro-level, we can expect that improved financial inclusion through mobile payments supports a more intensive capital growth and investment, which is a very good base for employment expanding. digital technologies generate substantial spillovers on local demand for services; it is projected that one additional technology job creates around five new jobs in the local sectors [14]. since the larger part of the employment in developing countries is in micro, small, and medium enterprises, these firms are often supported by the governments or donor organizations for growth and job creation. usually these interventions consist of provision of finance services, providing credit access, entrepreneurship training, business support services and wage subsidies [18]. digitization could be a platform for the success of these interventions. from a macro-financial approach, digitization can manage the typical problems of information asymmetry in the financial sector and in the labor market. digital financial services provide useful database of individuals’ financial transactions that financial institutions use to verify the creditability of their customers. virtual savings account and virtual credit supply platforms, among others mkesho, m-pesa, m-shwari, mobicash and tangaza in kenya facilitated the utilization of transactions and savings data as the base for micro credit pricing and evaluate credit risks. information symmetry reduces the risk premium payments and pre-checking costs of credit transactions by the financial institutions. in this way, credit information sharing can help to promote access to affordable credit. this has improved access to credit by small entrepreneurs supporting them to keep or develop their companies so generating employment opportunities in the east african region. micro level effects based on the overview of evolution of financial services in east africa we can draw some conclusions regarding the effects and mechanisms of the different development stages. the vibrant and technology-based financial activities boosted the number of clients and service providers and so more opportunities for employment. in the first stage (launch of electronic payments) there was a need for different new jobs at different levels (certain categories of agents). the developing network of agents reinforced the robust expansion in mobile devices based financial services (mobile money). garcia-murillo and velez-ospina [15] argue that empowerment inspired by digitalization, including the greater and easier access to information and resources can help reduce the role of informal sector. in an economy with huge unemployment, digitization provides an easy opportunity for self-employment. this improves the informal market operations and increases labor absorption, but not in a formal way. productivity the most important impact of digitization in the labor market is that it increases labor economy and sociology 39 december no. 2/2020 productivity [42]. digitization improves total productivity by enhancing job matching hence the allocation of labor and skills to the most suitable opportunities in the market [9] and alleviates employees of monotonous repetitive working so they are able focus on more productive jobs. digital platforms are able to reduce to costs of information search and improves chances for people who have problems in finding a job. in kenya, some evidence from literature demonstrate a growth in labor productivity in the past decade [25] when the digital transformation was getting more significant. in the financial sector, agency banking, that is based on the mobile phone-based financial services agents’ network, has also created job opportunities across the region, overriding the likely job losses resulting from online banking. we expect that potential for digitization and net employment creation will show some positive results. unemployment wider and deeper access to information and sources can support diminish the informal sectors in the east african economies; in economies characterized by huge unemployment rate, digitization provides an easy solution for self-employment. this could improve the informal market operations and increases workforce absorption. conclusions east african region remains one of the fastest-growing regions in the world, however high unemployment and high poverty rate is still a problem to be solved. the region shows a high level of entrepreneurial activity compared to other parts of africa. with a well-focused policy support framework and a advantageous economic environment, including the spread of new industry and finance 4.0, the region could manage the problems of unemployment poverty. with affordable and stable finance 4.0 solutions and a strong institutional framework, east african enterprises can reduce poverty, increase employment and promote inclusive growth by providing practical solutions through value-added products and services, enhancing gdp growth in this way. our expectation is that industry 4.0 and iot initiatives will empower small (including rural) business owners in africa, whereby the data based software and analytical solutions will be available on their smart devices; this will have an effect of better cooperation among stakeholders along the whole value chain. moreover, connectivity will support their daily business through acceptance of digital payment methods and getting more information on their customers so they will be able to develop tailor-made marketing strategies based on the collected data. this will 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https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2016 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30056 economy and sociology 59 december no. 2/2020 development of mobile marketing it projects: opportunities for moldova and ukraine maryna chaikovska1, phd in economics, associate professor, department of marketing and business administration, faculty of economics and law, odessa mechnikov national university, ukraine alla levitskaia2, habilitation in economics, professor, faculty of economics, comrat state university, regional economic development institute, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-05 jel classification: l86, m0, m3, m31, l86 udc: 339.138:004.738.5(477+478) abstract this article describes the main problematic issues and modern approaches to managing and developing mobile marketing it projects. in this study, the authors set the goal of the study to analyze the features of it project management in mobile marketing, to systematize the development models of modern web projects and to study the possibilities of using flexible applied methodologies that formalize the development and modification of web applications based on the use of effective methods for managing it projects in mobile marketing. to achieve this research goal, the authors used theoretical and conceptual analysis, studied existent empirical databases for the mobile application market in the republic of moldova and ukraine. the authors highlighted the critical problems of using agile methodologies in it projects of mobile marketing. a comparative analysis of the feature’s applicability of it project management methodologies and problems of their using in mobile marketing applications are presented. the logical and structural diagram of the stages of the mobile app design timeline is proposed, which contributes to increasing the effectiveness of the implementation of information technology projects in general. to assess the applicability of the flexible methodologies of kanban and scrum, an it project of mobile marketing was simulated. the significance of the results obtained is predetermined by the fact that they could form a theoretical base for improving the effectiveness of marketing activity under conditions of the informatization of society through the building a selforganizing team and use of agile methodologies in mobile marketing it projects. keywords: mobile marketing, mobile marketing it project, flexible it project management methodologies, mvp – minimum viable product. articolul descrie principalele provocări și abordări moderne pentru gestionarea și dezvoltarea de marketing mobil a proiectelor it. în acest studiu, autorii au stabilit obiectivul studiului – să analizeze caracteristicile managementului proiectelor it în marketingul mobil, să sistematizeze modelele de dezvoltare ale proiectelor web moderne și să studieze posibilitățile de utilizare a metodologiilor aplicate flexibile care să formalizeze dezvoltarea și modificarea de aplicații web bazate pe utilizarea unor metode eficiente pentru gestionarea proiectelor it în marketingul mobil. pentru a atinge acest obiectiv de cercetare, autorii au folosit analize teoretice și conceptuale, au studiat baze de date empirice existente pentru piața aplicațiilor mobile din republica moldova și ucraina. autorii au evidențiat problemele critice ale utilizării metodologiilor agile în proiectele it de marketing mobil. este prezentată analiza comparativă a metodologiilor de gestionare a proiectelor it și a constrângerilor de utilizare a acestora în aplicațiile de marketing mobil. se propune diagrama logică și structurală a etapelor programului de proiectare a aplicațiilor mobile, care contribuie la creșterea eficacității implementării proiectelor de 1 id orcid: 0000-0002-9490-5112 e-mail: chmp@ukr.net 2 id orcid: 0000-0002-0520-805x e-mail: alla.levitskaia@gmail.com http://onu.edu.ua/en/structure/faculty/epf theoretical and scientifical journal 60 december no. 2/2020 tehnologii informaționale în general. pentru a evalua aplicabilitatea metodologiilor flexibile ale kanban și scrum, a fost modelat un proiect de marketing mobil it. semnificația rezultatelor obținute este predeterminată de faptul că acestea ar putea forma o bază teoretică pentru îmbunătățirea eficacității activității de marketing în condițiile informatizării societății prin construirea unei echipe de autoorganizare și utilizarea metodologiilor agile în proiecte it de marketing mobil. cuvinte-cheie: marketing mobil, marketing it proiect it, metodologii flexibile de gestionare a proiectelor it, mvp – produs viabil minim. в данной статье описаны основные проблемные вопросы и современные подходы к управлению и развитию мобильного маркетинга ит-проектов. цель исследования – проанализировать особенности управления ит-проектами мобильного маркетинга, систематизировать модели развития современных веб-проектов и изучить возможности использования гибких прикладных методологий, формализующих процессы разработки и модификации веб-приложений на основе применения эффективных методов управления итпроектами мобильного маркетинга. для достижения цели исследования авторы использовали теоретический и концептуальный анализ, изучили существующие эмпирические базы данных рынка мобильных приложений в республике молдова и украины. авторами были выделены критические проблемы использования гибких методологий в ит-проектах мобильного маркетинга. проведенный сравнительный анализ применимости данной методологии управления ит-проектами и проблем их использования в приложениях для мобильного маркетинга, позволил авторам предложить логическую структурную схему этапов разработки мобильных приложений, применение которой способствует повышению эффективности реализации проектов в сфере информационных технологий в целом. для оценки применимости гибких методологий kanban и scrum авторами был смоделирован ит-проект мобильного маркетинга. значимость полученных результатов определяется тем, что они могут стать теоретической базой для повышения эффективности маркетинговой деятельности в условиях информатизации общества за счет построения самоорганизующейся команды и использования гибких методологий в ит-проектах мобильного маркетинга. ключевые слова: мобильный маркетинг, мобильный маркетинг, ит-проект, гибкие методологии управления ит-проектами, mvp – минимально жизнеспособный продукт. introduction statement of the problem in general form and its connection with important scientific or practical tasks. the use of certain marketing concepts in enterprises is mainly due to the characteristics and trends of the market. in the process of market transformation, the marketing approach to it is changing. one of the global modern trends in digital marketing is the steady growth of mobile traffic, which is associated with both an increase in the number of mobile users, mobile internet connections, mobile communications, and an increase in the speed of data transmission on mobile networks. the average annual growth rate of mobile traffic over the next five years will amount to 60-70%. mobile devices will generate more than 90 percent of traffic in 2020. in 2019, over two-thirds of ukrainians and moldovans are connected to the internet, most of them using mobile devices to access the internet (douglas, 2019). today, mobile marketing is the preferred method of digital marketing – a set of promotions, events and campaigns carried out through mobile devices via sms (short message service) to promote goods and services (danilenko, 2014:174). with the transition to the mobile marketing model, the processes of adapting and modifying the new functionality of web applications are accelerated, which requires the use of effective and adequate technologies for managing mobile marketing it projects (creation of web applications for use with mobile devices). reducing the timing of such projects, increasing the requirements of usability and the need for dynamic improvement of the quality assurance functionality requires formalizing the processes of web application development and modification based on the application of effective methods of managing mobile marketing it projects. economy and sociology 61 december no. 2/2020 scientific approach and literature review according to the classic definition of the american marketing association: "marketing – a function of the organization, which includes a set of processes for creating, promoting and the supply of consumer values through the management of customer relations, as a result of which the organization bears risks and benefits". research on digital transformation of marketing; places of digital marketing in modern conditions of social development; features of digital marketing as a modern tool of communication management with consumers; components and tools of digital marketing are dedicated to the work of many domestic and foreign scientists: oklander m. (2017), oklander t., yashkina o., pedko i. (2018), danilenko m. (2014), gritsenko s. (2017), ruban v. (2017), shafalyuk o. (2017), kwilinski a., trushkina n. (2017), kotler f. (2018), kaplan a. (2012), jeffrey m. (2018), lengard i. (2017). the analysis of the essence, prospects, methods, features and tendencies of the development of mobile marketing in the world and in ukraine was carried out in the works of mazurenko v.p., matviienko n. (2011), marchuk о. (2018), romanenko o. (2015), yatsyuk d. (2015). the issue of ітproject management at the theoretical level is considered in the works of bourque p., fairley r.e (2014), fatrell r., donald schafer f., larman k., cohn m., cobb g. (2016), developed plenty of standard methodologies for process manufacturing software: iso9001, iso12207, iso15504, cmm (capability maturity model), msf (microsoft solution framework), rup (rational unified process), scrum, xp (extremal programming), crystal clear, asd (adaptive software development), agile (2018:68). author bhalla (2011) proved that the marketing strategy should focus on strengthening the interaction between seller and consumer. however, the researchers did not identify areas for monetization of the proposed solutions. authors iliashenco, ivanova (2015) emphasized the importance of operational transactional interaction in real time. they have systematized the main methods and tools of digital marketing, the specifics of their application. but digital marketing tools are rapidly being upgraded and the results of such research need to be developed. the research study of oklander, oklander, yashkina (2018) contains an analysis of current trends in marketing research in the internet environment. however, it seems that the study is not complete because no strategic solutions are proposed. in particular, in the field of mobile marketing, which is progressing most rapidly among other areas of digital marketing. authors oklander, oklander, yashkina (2017) systematized the classic tools of digital marketing and general aspects of the application of digital technologies. this does not show the trends that have given rise to innovative digital technologies. analysis of the literature on the comparison of technological innovations of digital marketing in terms of improving their effectiveness shows that, firstly, the research is fragmentary and does not show the system of their latest most effective tools, does not show their strengths and weaknesses. secondly, although the issue of mobile marketing is being reprinted in research, not enough attention is paid to the strategies of its monetization. third, in the presence of multivariate models of affiliate marketing development, their systematization and characteristics of each model are not proposed. thus, to develop effective marketing strategies in the digital economy there is a need to improve the theoretical foundations for the use of innovative digital marketing tools, develop recommendations for effective strategies for their monetization and the formation of affiliate marketing models. highlighting the previously unresolved parts of the general problem to which the article is devoted. however, all attempts of formalization have failed, uniqueness of mobile marketing it projects highlights the issue of choice of methods, practices and rules of lowering project risks. formulation of the purpose of the article (statement of the problem). the purpose of this study is to analyze the features of a mobile marketing it project management, systematize the development models of modern web projects, highlight critical problems of using flexible methodologies in mobile marketing it projects, and develop recommendations for overcoming them. data sources and methods used mobile applications are one of the most successful and promising marketing channels to date. according to gartner, more than 10 billion mobile devices are registered in the world in 2019, including 1.7 billion machine-to-machine (m2m) connections. the number of mobile users has grown theoretical and scientifical journal 62 december no. 2/2020 from 4.3 billion in 2012 to 5.3 billion in 2019. the current annual growth rate is 2.4%. the average mobile data rate has increased more than 7-fold since 2012 (gartner special report, 2020). the highest internet speed in the world is in south kore with 95.1 mbps, and within a year this figure grew by 120%. in 2019, this country was the first in the world to launch 5g high-speed internet. in second place by speed we have qatar (69.1 mbps), third place – norway (68 mbps). the average speed of mobile internet across the world is 29.5 mbps. global mobile traffic in 2019 increased by 30.6% compared to 2017, and in the desktop segment it dipped by 3.3%. 70% of searches come from mobile devices, up to 30% of visitors go to sites and leave orders from mobile devices, the average user spends at least 87 hours on performing internet search activities (digital marketing by the numbers, 2020). the country with the highest prevalence of smartphones was south korea – 94% of adults use smartphones and 6% use phones. on second place there is israel with a smartphone prevalence of 83%, in third place is australia with 82%. the united states is in eighth place with 77% (jomer 2020). smartphone sales in the eu and app downloads have increased exponentially over the past years and already over half of internet access is via mobile devices – and it’s still growing. moreover, most mobile internet usage is through apps rather than web browsers [11]. the increasing adoption of smartphones and tablets is driving the growing demand for mobile applications. european spending on mobile applications (including user spending and advertising), totaled €6.1 billion in 2013 and by 2018 it grew to €18.7 billion – so a more than 3-fold increase in just 5 years’ time (eu export explorer on it services, 2016). android is the leading operating system for mobile devices in europe. other mobile operating systems include apple’s ios (running only on ipads, iphones and the apple watch) and windows (unlike google and apple, microsoft has only one os for desktop computers, laptops, tablets and phones). demand for cross-platform mobile applications is growing (gen2 standard, 2016). the market for mobile applications is changing rapidly. new technological trends are emerging continuously, offering new opportunities for mobile applications. as a result of all these developments big data environments are growing fast and are becoming more complex and dynamic, which results in poor usability and reduced control over applications. there is thus an increasing demand for mobile applications that analyze data that is available to companies, or that makes collection and use of this data possible. european companies prefer to outsource services to providers within the same country (onshoring). when outsourcing to foreign service providers, nearshore locations are preferred to offshore locations, due to their proximity, language and cultural similarities and little or no time difference. popular nearshore destinations are, for example, bulgaria, poland, lithuania and romania. this may be an opportunity for ukrainian and moldovan it service providers (gen2 standard, 2016). the government of the republic of moldova approved a strategy for the development of the information technology and ecosystem industry for digital innovation for 2018-2023. the development of these documents was the base for the growth of it technologies: the volume of it services exports in 2011-2016 increased by an average of 10.6% per annum in moldova, amounting to $79.2 million in 2016, and the share of such services in the total services exports increased from 5.6% in 2011 to 8.9% in 2016 (it sector strategic roadmap for moldova, 2020). western europe, with a share of 45% of the total volume, dominates the sales markets in the structure of the moldovan export of it services, followed by america (usa, canada) with a 21% share and central and eastern europe with a share of 18%. according to the type of services provided in the ict sector, 70% of moldovan companies' exports are it services, followed by r & d services/ engineering services with a 15% share and bpo (business process outsourcing) services with a 10% share. in turn, 70% of the it services exports relate to application development and testing, while setting up and supporting applications generates about 14% of these services. at the same time, it should be noted that large volumes of export of it services are not reflected in the official external balance sheet, since the work is carried out by freelancers working individually in international companies. moldova was featured in the bloomberg innovation index and made it into the top 10 global innovation index (gii) economies in mobile app development (table 1). apps represent global commerce in completely digital goods, therefore provide insight into how economy and sociology 63 december no. 2/2020 innovation, production, and trade of digitized products and services are evolving in an increasingly globalized digital economy (gii, 2020). table 1 top 10 gii economics in mobile creation countries % place cyprus 100.00 1 finland 66.11 2 lithuania 63.35 3 israel 59.41 4 estonia 52.44 5 sweden 50.17 6 denmark 49.65 7 korea, republic of 48.88 8 moldova, republic of 45.90 9 hong kong (china) 44.50 10 source: [gii 2020]. out of 70% of it services application development and testing services amounted to 69% of the share, while application customization and support to 14% (figure 1). it services export are focused on web and mobility app development and include focus on languages such as net, enterprise java, c, c++, c#, php, sitecore cms, ios, oracle db and cisco networks. figure 1. it services export source: [it sector strategic roadmap for moldova 2020]. moldova has a relatively high level of internet penetration. in 2012, moldova was significantly behind in this indicator and held only the 37th place in europe. but in recent years, the country has shown accelerated growth. in 2016, the number of people over 6 years of age using the internet was 71%, compared with 63% in 2015. in 2017, the number of mobile telephony service users who used 4g mobile internet via smartphones increased by 45.8%. the volume of traffic generated by mobile internet users via smartphones in 2018 increased by 64.2%. as a result of such dynamics, the penetration rate of mobile internet access services per 100 residents in 2019 increased by 14.3 percentage points and amounted to 82.7%. similar global trends are observed in ukraine. the use of the second and third screens is growing, people are using several mobile devices at the same time. in 2019, the number of ukrainians in the network amounted to almost 23 million, or 71% of the population, against 63% of the population in 2018. 66% of ukrainian internet users use mobile devices. 76.2% of mobile internet users access the network via android, 22.5% through apple devices (digital report, 2019). increasing importance of mobile traffic requires a change in approach to the development of modern web-projects with a focus on improving usability based on the principles of ergonomics and customer-centricity. the issue of web application development, adapted for use with mobile devices, is critical in digital marketing. mobile versions have a number of features that must be considered to ensure high usability. ergonomics means fitness for use, availability of conditions and pre-conditions it services 70% bpo services 10% r&d engineering services 15% management quality insurance 5% application development and testing 69% application castomisation and support 14% consulting 5% managed infra services 4% other services 8% theoretical and scientifical journal 64 december no. 2/2020 for easy, enjoyable, non-burdening use. there are several usability models: responsive web design, adaptive design, mobile first, mobile only (table 2). table 2 models of development of modern web-projects type characteristics advantages limitations responsive web design the site is readable on various monitors, does not require zooming or scaling, there is no need for horizontal scrolling. the need to develop only one version of the design that will automatically adapt to the screen size of the device. excessive overload of web page traffic (by downloading css styles and javascript files); difficulties with image adaptation. adaptive design the content is automatically adapted to the screen of the device used by the user. first, the developer creates content for pc users, and only then "trims" for the smartphone. wide versatility. suitable for almost any category of websites. difficulty in adapting an existing site; significant requirements for the choice of server solutions mobile-first development of web-based solutions for mobile users, with further adjustments to those solely for workplace users. laconic design, minimal functionality. the connection speed of the network is taken into account. requires more detailed work on the prototyping and development phase of the site concept, given the need to reduce the amount of content. design is limited, scripts are truncated, background images are missing, images are minimized. mobile only. mobile users only receive content that is prepared for their screen and device solution. reducing page load time on mobile devices by reducing the number of resource downloads requests. there are risks associated with browser incompatibilities, differences in operating systems (os) of user devices, restrictions on the mobile version only. source: developed by the authors. improper model selection causes the site to lose a large share of the market. to provide the most user-friendly interface and navigation, an adequate choice of technology is required at the stage of designing the structure of the web-resource and program code. when choosing a technology, consider the limitations of content minimalism requirements, the complexity of the project, the type of device screens, monoor multi-variant versions of web-projects, the type of operating system that will be applied. mobile marketing it project management methodologies can be divided into traditional and flexible (iterative). traditional – based on fairly strict planning of the project before launch and minimal interventions after. with this approach, each subsequent phase begins after the completion of the previous one. the traditional approach correlates with the classic project management standard from pmi – pmbok (pmbok, 2018). agile agencies are more effective in a rapidly changing business environment. agile methodologies encourage change at all stages. this makes them more competitive in current realities. the use of flexible methodologies in the management of it projects for mobile marketing increases the manageability of the project and allows you to get an effective return on investment; provide structure flexibility. agile methodologies are based on adaptive development, focusing on people and their interaction, rather than on processes and tools. they are characterized by flexibility, iterativeness, adaptability. conducive to breaking into small manageable work packages. an iterative and incremental approach to project and product management, focused on the dynamic formation of requirements and ensuring their implementation as a result of constant interaction within self-organizing working groups consisting of specialists of various profiles. a working product is more important than comprehensive documentation; cooperation with the economy and sociology 65 december no. 2/2020 customer is more important than agreement on the terms of the contract; readiness for change is more important than following the original plan. suitable for open end projects. the share of agile projects in the total array is steadily increasing (from 9% in 2010 to 25% in 2019), while traditional approaches are losing popularity, which is particularly noticeable in application development (cobb, 2016:115). among the methods based on the ideas of agile, the most popular are scrum and kanban. kanban (toyota, 1953) a development management method that implements the principle on time and contributes to an even distribution of workload between employees. the product increment is passed forward from stage to stage, and at the end, an element ready for delivery is obtained. accurate calculation of the load on the team, the correct placement of constraints and focus on continuous improvement. the main task of kanban is to reduce the amount of “work currently in progress”. in kanban, estimates of the deadlines for the task are optional or none at all. kanban is a tool for visualizing the process and limiting the execution of the simultaneous number of tasks, but it alone is not enough for a successful project. suitable for fairly cohesive teams with good communication. scrum is the most structured of the agile family, combines the elements of the classical process and the ideas of a flexible approach to project management. scrum is a set of principles on which the development process is built, which allows to provide a product to a customer in hard-fixed and shortterm iterations, called sprints. the scrum methodology is aimed at interacting with the customer, and despite the fact that the development team decides what tasks it will perform during one iteration, there is a leader (scrum master) in this methodology who monitors the process. using this methodology makes it possible to identify and eliminate deviations from the desired result at earlier stages of software product development. table 3 shows a comparative analysis of the features and areas of applicability of flexible methodologies for managing mobile marketing it projects. table 3 analysis of the application of it project management methods in the company method features usage in projects micro management problems regarding involving the team in the development process; internal security threat (project, information, staff). the number of people in the project does not exceed 10. leadership lacks delegation skills or is reluctant to delegate. kanban boards just in time (jit) principle. helps to identify bottlenecks in the project. a visual solution that involves prioritizing. panoramic view of the project. provides business opportunity to be reactive to customer needs. it's hard to combine testing and development in one team. task-oriented. high volume of tasks. the requirements are constantly changing. many tasks may be out of date and get “demoted”. scrum aims for interaction with the customer. more communications. the beginning of the sprint is accompanied by planning: analysis and evaluation of tasks. weekly mandatory stand-ups. after the sprint, a retrospective is held. as a result, all communications (meetings, workshop, sprint retrospective, etc.) take about 30% of the time. team-oriented. projects with flexible workflow algorithm, uncertainties, variable requirements, inability to determine the time limits of tasks in advance. quick launch of the project with the most priority functions. source: developed by the authors. when using flexible methodologies in mobile marketing it projects, it is necessary to take into account a number of critical problems associated with determining the target market, designing, prototyping, organizing teamwork, and choosing the mvp functionality (minimum viable product). underestimating the importance of these issues leads to the fact that only 29 out of 100 it mobile marketing projects reach the stage of successful implementation (chaikovska, chaykovskyy, 2018:68). theoretical and scientifical journal 66 december no. 2/2020 figure 1 shows the logical and structural diagram of the mobile app design timeline stages, which helps to increase the effectiveness of the project. 1. building an autonomous, self-organizing team in practice. such a team may not be considered completely independent; leadership is still being implemented: goals are set from the outside, and the team itself is formed by management. however, the team independently determines the path by which the goal will be achieved. 2. decide what functionality will be the mvp (minimum viable product), how to think of architecture for future expansion, what technologies to choose, and, in addition, determine the time and cost of the project. in order to optimize this process, it is recommended to carry out the design. designing requires applications with unique, deliberately new functionalities that integrate many features and systems that provide ambiguity for possible solutions. 3. ignoring the principles of building interfaces for android and requirements for ios, laying the wrong structure of screens. application of non-native elements. this makes the app unintelligible to the user and increases the development time. the lack of clarity of the scripts in the tk and their detailing in the design, the difficulty of integrating the mobile application with crm systems and erp. 4. conducting a/b-testing of the apps and the retrospective of the it project. in practice, it often turns out that carrying out a retrospective at the end is difficult: the team does not have enough time, many problems are already solved during the iteration. table 4 effectiveness of scrum and kanban model duration (days) deviation (%) cost ($) base factual estimate factual kanban 40 46 15% 13400 $ 15410 $ scrum 40 35 -12,5% 13400 $ 11725 $ source: developed by the authors using cobb g (2016). to evaluate the applicability of kanban and scrum, a mobile marketing it project was modeled. despite the fact that the baseline duration of a project modeled using the scrum methodology is the same as the duration of a project implemented using kanban, the variance in both the duration and cost of a project modeled using the scrum methodology is much less than in kanban with an obvious gain in product quality. table 5 comparison of scrum and kanban by criteria criteria scrum kanban evaluation of terms + long-term planning + roles + changes after scheduling + technical task + quick reaction + narrow specialization in the team + daily meetings + + the division of tasks into several stages + source: developed by the authors using cobb g (2016). the basis of flexible it project management methodologies is a retrospective. however, there are various approaches to conducting a retrospective, to choosing a model and an algorithm for its implementation. according to the cascade model, a retrospective should be carried out in the late stages of an it project. an alternative approach recommended in benchmarking is the continuous retrospective of an it project. the main feature of this approach is the departure from a phased model to a spiral one, with daily milestones (“stand-up” assemblies) (chaikovska, 57). continuous retrospective is implemented by the following activities: visualization of the problem, development of a business process model for its implementation, analysis of alternative options for its operational resolution. economy and sociology 67 december no. 2/2020 figure 2. mobile app design timeline source: [chaikovska, 2017]. conclusions and prospects for further developments mobile marketing is constantly evolving. in a world where people read their correspondence, socialize and search for different information through mobile devices, businesses need new marketing strategies and tools, new approaches to managing. applying these flexible approaches will encourage customers using mobile services to visit the site. it will contribute to creating applications that provide unique usability content, and among other things, digital presence. one of the main tasks that directly affect the effectiveness of software development is choosing a model for the development process. there is no single optimum choice. the model may vary depending on the scale, novelty and criticality of the project, distribution of participants, customer requirements. today, the traditional approach to managing it projects is having considerable difficulties when project 1.marketing application creation goals who is this application for? what aim will people use it for? user scenarios the most convenient way to solve mobile. full information is needed on the behavior of the target audience promotion develop a post-release product promotion strategy planning the volume of future investments 2. architecture, structure and interfaces architecture designing a server database structure approximation of previous steps prototypes of interfaces creating user scenarios 3. mvt (minimum viable technology) selection native hybrid cross-platform 4. mvp (minimum viable product) selection early implementation short test time close engagement with the audience, downloads, interface reviews and usability 5. creating a long-term development plan planning the total amount of investment required a clear understanding of resource costs transparent picture, eddy control theoretical and scientifical journal 68 december no. 2/2020 requirements can change at almost any stage, as it is necessary to respond to the rapidly changing environment. these are exactly the challenges inherent to mobile marketing it projects. flexible methodologies have their own challenges. it is important to perceive them as “challenges” and not advantages or disadvantages. micromanagement and kanban are good for small business website projects that don't take much time to plan. scrum is suitable for a large project (3 months in duration) that has full specification and requirements before development begins. in this case, the team can easily draw up a detailed development plan and split the whole process into a sprint. implementing scrum and switching to flexible methodologies takes time and effort. a flexible team goes through the stages of formation, conflict, normalization, and cooperation. productive work is only possible at the last stage, at which point the manager needs to help and support the team. the transition to flexible methodologies involves a dramatic change in the tasks and methods of executives' work. the leadership style of the manager should focus on delegation, virtually all authority is transferred to the team, and the task of the manager is to teach them to act independently, organize and support the work process. the underlying complexity of using flexible methodologies is that it is not just a change in the work process, it is also a change of 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[cited 15 august 2020]. available: https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/home article history received 11 june 2020 accepted 02 november 2020 http://invest.gov.md/sites/default/files/eu_export_explorer_en.pdf https://mei.gov.md/sites/default/files/%202._avasant_it_strategic_roadmap.pdf http://mdt-opu.com.ua/index.php/mdt/article/view/46/45 http://mdt-opu.com.ua/index.php/mdt/article/view/46/45 http://economyandsociety.in.ua/journal/17_ukr/43.pdf https://mmi.fem.sumdu.edu.ua/sites/default/files/mmi2011_4_2_24_29.pdf http://www.williamspublishing.com/pdf/978-5-8459-1222-0/intro.pdf http://www.williamspublishing.com/pdf/978-5-8459-1222-0/intro.pdf https://martech.zone/digital-marketing-landscape/ https://wearesocial.com/global-digital-report-2019 https://www.hubspot.com/marketing-statistics%20%20digital-report-2019 https://www.hubspot.com/marketing-statistics%20%20digital-report-2019 http://www.investplan.com.ua/pdf/7_2015/16.pdf https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/home theoretical and scientifical journal 98 no. 1 / 2020 a feminist reflective analysis of gender mainstreaming in youth policy and practice in the republic of moldova jane m. kellum 1, master in international relations, independent gender, education, and youth consultant2 medford, oregon, united states abstract this year, 2020, marks the 25th anniversary of the 1995 united nations fourth world conference on women in beijing where gender mainstreaming was introduced. since then, gender mainstreaming has come to be recognized as the inter-governmentally agreed strategy to achieve gender equality and female empowerment and involves integrating a gender perspective into all aspects of governmental policy, regulation, and budgeting, with an eye towards promoting equality between women and men, social inclusion, and eliminating discrimination in all its forms. despite notable achievements, an important body of feminist scholarship reveals that gender mainstreaming faces many challenges. in this paper, i contribute to this body of knowledge by using a feminist reflective practice approach to analyze the gender mainstreaming process i undertook as part of the 2020 comprehensive youth sector analysis in the republic of moldova. through this analysis, i identify a number of challenges that can be understood as part of the larger social construction of gender inequality and conclude that gender mainstreaming processes embody the same gender inequality and patriarchy that we encounter in our larger social structures. this, in turn, acts as one of the greatest threats to gender mainstreaming as an effective strategy to achieve gender equality. keywords: gender equality, gender mainstreaming, women’s empowerment, reflexive practice, feminism. anul curent, 2020, marchează 25 de ani de la cea de-a patra conferință mondială privind femeile organizată la beijing în 1995 sub auspiciile organizația națiunilor unite, unde a fost introdusă abordarea de gen. de atunci, integrarea dimensiunii de gen a devenit o strategie, recunoscută interguvernamental, pentru obținerea egalității de gen și împuternicirea femeilor. aceasta implică integrarea dimensiunii de gen în toate domenii ale politicii guvernamentale, a reglementărilor și bugetelor de stat, urmărind promovarea egalității între femei și bărbați, incluziunii sociale și eliminarea tuturor formelor de discriminare. în ciuda realizărilor notabile, o parte importantă a cercetărilor relevă faptul că integrarea dimensiunii de gen se confruntă cu mai multe provocări. în lucrarea de față, am contribuit la această totalitate de cunoștințe, folosind o abordare a practicii feministe reflective pentru a evalua procesul de integrare a dimensiunii de gen ca o componentă a analizei comprehensive a sectorului de tineret în republica moldova, la care am participat în 2020. prin această analiză, am identificat o serie de provocări care prezintă o parte componentă a celei mai mari construcții sociale a inegalității de gen și constat că procesele de integrare a dimensiunii de gen cuprind în sine 1 © jane kellum, janekellum@hotmail.com 2 jane kellum is an international gender, education, and youth consultant with over fifteen years of experience in diverse and complex contexts in latin america and the caribbean, west and east africa, southeast asia, middle east, and central/eastern europe. she holds a b.a. in political science, summa cum laude, from tulane university (new orleans, louisiana, usa), and a master’s in international relations with a concentration in economics, development, and cooperation from the universidad del salvador (buenos aires, argentina). since 2016, ms. kellum has been an independent consultant providing her services to various international organizations and ngos that include un women, unicef, the caribbean community (caricom), care international, save the children, plan international, and banyan global. she is an experienced researcher, specializing in qualitative methods and topics related to education, youth development, child protection, gender, equity and equality, human rights, and social inclusion. she also specializes in gender analysis and sector-specific analysis and assessment related to education, youth, and children. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-09 jel classification: k38, o19, o29, y90 udc: 316.346.2(478) economy and sociology 99 no. 1 / 2020 aceeași inegalitate de gen și patriarhat pe care le întâlnim în structurile sociale mai mari. totodată, aceasta constituie una dintre cele mai mari amenințări la integrarea dimensiunii de gen ca strategie eficientă pentru obținerea egalității de gen. cuvinte-cheie: egalitate de gen, gender mainstriming, împuternicirea femeilor, practică reflexivă, feminism. в 2020 году отмечается 25-я годовщина четвертой всемирной конференции организации объединенных наций по положению женщин в пекине 1995 г., положившей начало гендерному подходу. с тех пор учет гендерной проблематики стал признаваться в качестве согласованной на межправительственном уровне стратегии по достижению гендерного равенства и расширению прав и возможностей женщин, и предусматривает учет гендерной проблематики во всех областях государственной политики, регулирования и бюджетирования с целью обеспечения равенства между женщинами и мужчины, социальной интеграции и ликвидации дискриминации во всех ее формах. несмотря на достигнутые успехи, значительное число исследований показывает, что учет гендерной проблематики сталкивается со многими проблемами. данная статья внесет свой вклад в эту совокупность знаний путем использования подхода феминистской рефлексивной практики для анализа процесса учета гендерной проблематики, который я предприняла в рамках комплексного анализа молодежного сектора республики молдова в 2020 г. с помощью этого анализа я выявила целый ряд проблем, которые можно понять как часть более широкой социальной конструкции гендерного неравенства, и делаю вывод о том, что процессы актуализации гендерной проблематики воплощают то же гендерное неравенство и патриархат, с которыми мы сталкиваемся в более крупных социальных структурах. это, в свою очередь, является одной из самых серьезных угроз для учета гендерной проблематики в качестве эффективной стратегии достижения гендерного равенства. ключевые слова: гендерное равенство, гендерный мейнстриминг, расширение прав и возможностей женщин, рефлексивная практика, феминизм. introduction gender equality is the enjoyment of equal rights, responsibilities, and opportunities among women and men and girls and boys; it does not seek to make women and men the same, but that these equal rights, responsibilities, and opportunities are not dependent on being born either male or female (un women, n.d.). it is both a fundamental human right as enshrined in a number of international treaties and agreements, notably the international covenant on civil and political rights, the international covenant on economic, social, and cultural rights, and conventional on the elimination of discrimination against women (ohchr, n.d.) and a powerful means to reduce poverty and advance development as a number of multilateral organizations (world bank n.d. and the united nations n.d.) affirm and a growing body of evidence confirms (kabeer and natali (2013), nieuwenhuis et al. 2018).1 gender equality has its roots in both feminist thought and practice, including the women’s rights movement. accordingly, redressing inequity and inequality that disproportionately impacts women through socially constructed power relations and structures in which men dominate remains at the heart of all efforts that seek to realize gender equality (bacchi 2010:22). un women’s 2020 report, gender equality: women’s rights in review 25 years after beijing, illustrates that gains – such as global average gender parity in education and legal and regulatory reforms in 131 countries that support gender equality – have been made towards achieving gender equality (un women 2020a:4). these gains can be attributed to dedicated action by policy makers, including through gender mainstreaming (gm), which is defined as “the integration of a gender perspective into the preparation, design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies, regulatory measures and spending programs, with a view to promoting equality between women and men, and combating discrimination” (eige 2020). indeed, a number of united nations intergovernmental resolutions, mandates, and decisions 1 a complete literature review on this topic is outside the scope of the present study. the examples are illustrative in nature. theoretical and scientifical journal 100 no. 1 / 2020 that include the 1995 united nations fourth world conference on women in beijing, the sustainable development agenda 2030, and the paris agreement have affirmed that gm is the primary intergovernmentally-agreed, global strategy for achieving the goal of gender equality and empowerment of women and girls. gender mainstreaming furthermore “moves gender equality and the empowerment of women from the margins to the mainstream of decision-making” (un women 2020b:2). nevertheless, un women’s 2020 report on the state of gender equality illustrates that universal gender equality – including equal participation in politics, socioeconomic standing, and freedom from gender-based violence – continues to be out of reach with women predominately on the losing end (un women 2020a: 4-5). the still unrealized achievement of gender equality points to potential shortcomings of gm as the “most practical means to achieve gender equality and the empowerment of women” (un women 2020b:2). literature review a review of literature on challenges of gm in policy development yields a number of notable works. straught (2003) argues that gm is equated with a specific machinery (e.g., staff and/or departments) within governmental institutions instead of being considered a core characteristic of good governance. cavaghan (2017) examines the barrier of resistance by governmental staff and authorities to gm by comparing two gender mainstreaming policy cases implemented within the framework of the european commission’s directorate general of research between 2002 and 2006. lombardo and mergaert (2013) also examine the obstacle of resistance, specifically to gender training conducted as part of gm processes in policy-making. bacchi and eveline (2010) provide extensive analysis of gm processes in policy development in countries that include australia, canada, and the netherlands, illuminating dilemmas and challenges such as insufficient time and space for public servants to explore, learn, understand, and embrace gm and a narrow focus on “gender” mainstreaming that oftentimes ignores the diversity of women and the various compounded discrimination they may face based on other factors like ethnicity, gender identity, sexual orientation, and others. reflecting on her own experience in the field of gm, mukhopadhyay (2016a) analyzes how “feminist concerns with the political project of equality are being normalized in the development business as an ahistorical, apolitical, de-contextualized and technical project that leaves the prevailing and unequal power relations intact…gender mainstreaming is being interpreted as getting rid of the focus on women, regardless of context.” mukhopadhyay (2016b) dives deeper into this challenge facing gm, describing it as being “streamed away into… bureaucracies.” a common thread within this body of research is the use of the feminist lens, independent of whether it was explicitly or implicitly employed to understand core challenges to gm in policy development. in other words, these scholars have sought to understand failings and challenges of gm to achieve gender equality by examining it from the standpoint of those whose particular lives are lived in oppression (i.e., women and girls) under a predominately male-dominated world (i.e., patriarchy). most of these works examine the challenges from a third-person point of view with the exception of mukhopadhyay (2016a; 2016b) who uses first-person inquiry of her own direct experience in gm to examine the obstacles that have undermined gm as a strategy globally. however, research conducted and published by gender practitioners-those conducting gender analysis and/or using other tools as part of a given policy development process-appears to remain scarce overall, thereby opening an important opportunity to contribute to this area of feminist investigation. purpose of study, theoretical framework, and methodology in this paper, i seek to contribute to the feminist scholarship that examines challenges to gm in policy development from a critical, first-person perspective. specifically, i will analyze challenges that emerged during the gm process i led as part of the 2020 comprehensive youth sector analysis (cysa) in the republic of moldova (rom)1 using a feminist reflective practice approach. 1 as the national strategy for youth sector development (nsysd)’s operational period neared its completion and with eye towards better understanding gaps identified in the 2018 oecd youth well-being policy review, the ministry of education, culture, and research (mecr) requested unicef’s support to conduct a cysa in 2019. as part of its respective country program strategy and global mandate and in support of the national strategy for gender equality in moldova, the support of unicef aimed to advance gender equality in the youth development sector policy, strategy, economy and sociology 101 no. 1 / 2020 accordingly, i will conduct a case study of the cysa in the rom using an adapted theoretical framework that combines feminist theory and two related methodological approaches: reflective and reflexive practice. a feminist lens is one that allows a researcher to make inquiries based on where s/he stands in her/his life that has been socially constructed, notably allowing her/him to better understand lives of those lived under oppression and/or disadvantage, notably women and girls (connolly 2018: 33). by nature, a feminist perspective is part of critical theory which is an approach to social inquiry that both “interprets the acts and the symbols of society in order to understand the ways in which various social groups are oppressed” and “examines social conditions to undercover hidden structures” while also making a “conscious attempt to fuse theory and practice…to bring about change in the conditions that affect our lives” (seiler n.d.). on the one hand, reflective practice is “thinking about and critically analyzing one’s actions with the goal of improving one’s professional practice” (imel 1992: 2). on the other hand, reflexive practice, or reflexivity, goes further: it involves critical self-analysis that questions one’s own values, thought processes, behaviors, assumptions and analyzes how this impacts what happens in a person’s professional practice, relationships, and/or associated organizations (bolton and delderfield 2018: 14). by approaching reflective and reflexive practice from a feminist perspective, connolly (2018: 31,33) explains that this type of critical self-analysis – or what she calls feminist reflective practice – of one’s professional practice, “focuses on our being in the world, how we, as agentic practitioners in a stratified world, see that world...reflexive practice has to encompass a consciousness-raising element, rather than simply improve practice…it questions how this [stratified world of oppression] influences [our] practice and asks what [our] commitment to emancipation is? and how do [we] turn this into knowledge?” (connolly 2018: 31,33). using this theoretical framework, i first conducted a reflective practice analysis of the gender analysis i completed as part of the cysa by asking myself what challenges i experienced or observed during each stage or component of the gm process (e.g., cysa and gm terms of reference; the gender analysis design, data collection, gender integration into larger cysa, presentation of final results, etc.). i then conducted a reflexive practice analysis using care international’s gender equality framework (gef) as tool to interpret the challenges. the gef framework posits that equality can only be realized if we transform discriminatory structures, change power relations, and build female agency. the inverse then tells us that gender inequality thrives in a context where structures include discriminatory social norms, institutions, policies, and practices (whether intentional or not), gendered relationships are characterized by power imbalances, and women and girls do not have fully realized agency in regards to their confidence, self-esteem, aspirations, abilities, education, etc. (care international 2018:7). results and discussion the feminist reflective practice analysis i undertook to examine the gm mainstreaming process i led as part of the cysa in the rom was not a straightforward endeavor. my final theoretical approach, in terms of how to interpret the findings of my reflective analysis, only emerged during the actual analytical exercise itself. the initial analysis i undertook of the cysa gm process began as a mechanical process using a matrix i created based on a project management approach to learning -lessons learned. for each gm process component (e.g., cysa terms of reference, gm terms of reference, data collection, etc.), i sought to brainstorm key challenges and how they were overcome in the process as way to produce new practical “how-to” insights for gender practitioners, including myself. however, as the matrix began to fill up with the challenges across the various components of the gm process itself, i noticed key patterns emerging that interestingly, though not surprisingly, were reminiscent of key findings and conclusions of the actual gender analysis of the youth sector i conducted (e.g., limited prioritization of gender in the gm process, harmful gender norms and programs by ensuring the completion of a gender-sensitive cysa. to this end, unicef with the support of un women recruited the author of the present article as an international consultant to ensure comprehensive gender mainstreaming in all components of the cysa. theoretical and scientifical journal 102 no. 1 / 2020 negatively impacting the gm process, and limited capacity and political will to realize the gm process).1 i realized i needed the critical theoretical lens to accurately interpret the socially constructed patterns of power imbalance and inequality that were emerging within the gm process itself. accordingly, the feminist reflective practice approach emerged as my theoretical framework. through this critical self-inquiry-based analysis, i identified, analyzed, and interpreted three main challenges of the cysa gm process. reflection (1) gm as separate within the cysa process: a comparative review of the original cysa terms of reference (tor) published by unicef with the tor for the gm consultancy published by un women clearly reveal a strong priority on ensuring gender was fully mainstreamed into the cysa process. despite the priority, gender was still being approached as separate from the larger cysa. for example, the cysa tor did not require applying organizations to propose and ensure gender expertise on their team but rather mentioned that a consultant would be engaged on a separate contract but expected to collaborate closely with the organization commissioned to complete the larger cysa. while many advantages of this approach exist such as autonomy for the gender consultant to conduct an objective gender analysis and integration into the larger cysa, it also establishes a precedent for gender to not actually be mainstreamed but remain a stand-alone exercise outside of the larger cysa. indeed, the cysa tor envisioned the gender analysis as a separate chapter in the proposed outline of the cysa report. this was an aspect on which i resisted during the gm process since having gender as separate contradicts the tenet on which gm stands: gm seeks to move gender into the “mainstream” of all policy development. i was largely successful in my lobbying efforts to fully integrate gender into the larger cysa process, including the cysa report and related presentations of findings. although much of my genderrelated contributions to each chapter of the cysa report were included, much of it was cut under the premise of both saving limited space and avoiding distraction from the larger objective of the cysa. in the end, i drafted a comprehensive annex that outlined all key findings, conclusions, and recommendations that were included in the main body of the cysa as well as additional gender-related outcomes of the gender analysis process. admittedly, the annex provided an opportunity to expand on the gender analysis results while also resolving space limitations. nevertheless, despite reiterating the message that gender was not separate but an integral part of the cysa to drive home this important message in both the annex and during my separate presentation of results at the cysa national validation workshop in february 2020, the gender annex inclusion sent a strong message that gender is separate. (2) time constraints on the gm process: insufficient time to systematically complete the gm was a challenge that crossed all stages of the process. the original calendar envisioned i make three mission trips with the first dedicated to integrating with the larger cysa team and finalizing integration of gender into the inception report, cysa methodology, and qualitative research tools. this mission trip would have also included an initial validation exercise with the ministry of education, culture, and research (mecr) to approve the inception report, methodology, and tools. by the time i was on-boarded as the gender consultant, this stage of the cysa was already completed, thereby depriving the gm process a crucial legitimizing step to ensure gender was a fully integrated component of the larger cysa process. the organization that was commissioned to conduct the cysa had also made significant progress in completing the desk review portion of the exercise and was going to begin interviews within a couple of days of our initial call. although i rose to the challenge and within three days had done a comprehensive and systematic review of the inception report, methodology, and tools, the original documents had already been approved 1 the four key conclusions of the youth sector gender analysis i completed as part of the gm process were (1) gender equality and social inclusion are not priorities in youth-related policies and programs; (2) persistent intersectionality – also known as compounded discrimination and vulnerability – impacts several groups of especially vulnerable female and male youth and adolescents; (3) harmful gender norms—that include what it means to be masculine or feminine and how sexuality and reproductive issues are addressed in society – are at the root of most pressing issues faced by male and female youth; (4) youth sector governmental authorities [i.e., relevant ministries and local government entities] lack financial and technical capacity and the political will to effectively mainstream gender into youth policy (kellum 2020: 90-96). economy and sociology 103 no. 1 / 2020 and the stage was set for gender to be sidelined. similar time constraints plagued the entire process. for example, gender-related primary data collection was not specifically anticipated as part of the gender analysis. the only opportunity to conduct primary research was during the three consultation workshops that were used to present preliminary findings and receive feedback of the first draft report in december 2019. similarly, i only received the first draft report as i boarded the plane to participate in the workshops, meaning the consultation workshops were based on a draft report without a thorough gender review. again, i worked together with the larger cysa team to ensure the consultation workshop presentation included key gender findings, preliminary conclusions, and recommendations. however, undoubtedly quality of the gender integration suffered under time limitation. (3) direct resistance to gm: direct resistance to the gm process is another challenge that manifested itself in a number of ways throughout the larger cysa process. one example included expressed discomfort among some stakeholders about including analysis of young lgbti people or examining intersectionality – compounded discrimination – and how this impacted specific groups of vulnerable and/or marginalized male and female youth and their interaction with the youth sector. however, i overcame these obstacles and was successful in including these aspects in the cysa. another example was gender discriminatory jokes and attitudes expressed by male fgd participants during the consultation workshop sessions i facilitated in december 2020. these included statements like “there is too much focus on supporting young women” and “men are born leaders but women would have to be given training to be a leader.” i immediately challenged these sexist beliefs by calling out the faulty premises on which their beliefs and attitudes were based. a third example of resistance was particularly notable as a direct assault on gm as a means of achieving gender equality and necessary component of policy development. the incident took place at the cysa national validation workshop in february 2020. after i made the final presentation of the workshop focused on the gender-related findings, conclusions, and recommendations, the workshop facilitator initiated the question and answer session. the first person to raise his hand was a male representative of an international organization. what proceeded to happen, i argue, is that he employed a number of logical fallacies often wielded by people to manipulate others and information and which is considered a breach of ethics in public speaking (barton and tucker 2020). in this case, he did so to undermine not only me as a gender specialist but also gm as a legitimate process in the moldovan youth sector policy development and gender inequality as a current problem in the rom. he began speaking in romanian but then insisted on speaking english, even though i was the only person who was a native english speaker in the room. i had a translator, so it was not a necessary step to ensure i understood. he then publicly congratulated me on my presentation of the cysa gender mainstreaming results – public praise that not unimportantly, as we will see later in my reflexive analysis, was preceded by him leaning over my translator to tell me privately as the workshop facilitator opened up the q&a to say “you need to be taken out for a beer for that presentation.” the tone of our interaction quickly changed, however, as he launched into his intentional attack. he first began by employing the ad hominem1 logical fallacy by seeking to publicly humiliate me as the gender specialist by asking if i knew valentina vladimirovna tereshkova.2 when i responded that i did not, he shook his head, making an exaggerated show of scolding me for not knowing that she was the first female to travel to space and also from the soviet union during the time when the rom was part of the u.s.s.r. using this fallacy, he sought to discredit my view and opinions set forth as a gender and women’s rights specialist by showing that i have some personal flaw, which in this case, was “ignorance” of notable women in the 1 ad hominem is a logical fallacy described as when “arguer attacks his or her opponent instead of the opponent’s argument” (the writing center at unc chapel hill n.d.). 2 valentina vladimirovna tereshkova was the first and youngest women to ever travel to space in 1963. although she is not moldovan but russian, moldova was part of the u.s.s.r during this time. theoretical and scientifical journal 104 no. 1 / 2020 moldovan context. he simultaneously used tokenism1 by erroneously equating her individual achievement with the existence of gender equality and empowerment for all moldovan women. he employed the false equivalence2 fallacy by erroneously equating the cysa gm process, specifically key findings in the cysa that point to a gender inequal socio-cultural context in which the youth sector is situated, as a “foreign” ideology being pushed on moldovans similar to how the foreign communist ideology was pushed during the soviet era. however, unlike communism, which is a socio-political ideology, gender equality and the strategies to achieve it are enshrined within the framework of fundamental human rights inherent to all humans. he used the tu quoque3 fallacy in the form of whataboutism4 to divert attention from the context at hand– the rom. specifically, he stated, “what about the united states? they have gender-based violence? why should we be focusing on that in moldova when it exists everywhere?” in this case, he erroneously appealed to an imaginary hypocrisy on my part, since i am a professional specializing in gender who also happens to be from the united states where gbv exists as well. he also was seeking to divert attention from the topic at hand which was gender inequality in moldova not the situation of gbv in the united states. in the course of his intervention, he also described naming particularly vulnerable groups of youth as part of the gm process as divisive as opposed to inclusive, revealing a bias against basic tenets of gm. by the time he had finished his intervention, somewhere between 30 and 45 minutes – almost the entirety of the time allocated to the question and answer session – had passed. although some of his comments were not aimed directly at my contributions to the cysa, most of his comments made their way back to disputing the gm findings and conclusions in the cysa. he had essentially utilized the question and answer session of the cysa national validation workshop as a platform to undermine the gm process. unfortunately, my reaction to this egregious resistance to gm was not what i would have expected of a gender specialist: i did not respond at all. to say i was shocked, humiliated, and fully unprepared for such an assault on me as a professional and on my field of expertise overall would be an understatement. a few months needed to pass for me to fully understand my non-reaction; this will be analyzed further below using a reflexive practice approach. reflexivity on the surface, the three challenges analyzed above may appear to have emerged because of one-off institutional logistical issues or isolated incidences of gender naysayers using faulty logic. however, examining them from a critical reflexive lens reveals their emergence during the gm process to be part of the much larger problem of gender inequality that the gm seeks to redress. to do this, i will now analyze the identified challenges using care international’s gender equality framework. the first challenge – situating gender as separate versus an integral part of the larger cysa – and the second challenge – time constraints – can both be understood in the context of discriminatory structures (policies, practices, norms, etc.) according to the care international framework. to be clear, i am not suggesting the contracting international organizations and/or the organization commissioned to conduct the cysa of intentionally sidelining gender from the larger cysa or shorting the gm process activities of sufficient time. rather, i argue that institutional policies and practices within their and other influential and relevant organizations locked them into these patterns. to understand how this works, understanding discrimination is essential. according to pincus (2000: 1), discrimination operates at three levels: individual, institutional, and structural. while both individual and institutional discrimination is an intentional discrimination against someone or a group of individuals based on gender, race, ethnicity, or any other factor, structural discrimination “refers to the policies of dominant race/ethnic/gender institutions and the behavior of the individuals who implement these policies and 1 tokenism is a logical fallacy that is “interpreting a token gesture as an adequate substitute for the real thing.” (bennet, b. 2020) 2 false equivalence is a logical fallacy that “simultaneously condemns and excuses both sides in a dispute by claiming that both sides are (equally) guilty of inappropriate behavior or bad reasoning.” (thompson, b. n.d.) 3 the tu quoque logical fallacy is underpinned by claiming some type of hypocrisy on the part of one’s adversary to discredit claims made by the adversary. (stanford university 2020) 4 whataboutisim is “bringing up of one issue in order to distract from the discussion of another.” (rational wiki 2020) economy and sociology 105 no. 1 / 2020 control these institutions, which are race/ethnic/gender neutral in intent but which have a differential and/or harmful effect on minority race/ethnic/gender groups.” applying this definition of structural discrimination to the gm process in the cysa, certain institutional policies, practices, and/or capacities (or more accurately a lack thereof) were not in place to “discriminate” or impede the gm process directly but did so in very real ways. regarding the “gender as separate” challenge, a general lack of gender capacity (i.e., knowledge, knowhow, and experience to effectively integrate a gender perspective into the cysa process) among national institutions in moldova likely led to the decision by unicef to present the gm as separate in the initial cysa tor. likewise, the perceived inability of youth sector stakeholders to fully accept and understand gender analysis because of existing gender attitudes and understanding of gender equality (e.g., persistent misunderstanding in moldova that gender means making women and men the same) likely contributed to the various decisions to present gender as separate in the cysa process. in other words, structures in the form of gender and social norms are at the root of this impediment to the gm process. in the case of time constraints, for example, cumbersome procurement and human resources policies of the international contracting agencies in combination with bureaucratic approval processes by relevant governmental stakeholders in the rom likely delayed my initial onboarding. similarly, institutional budgeting decisions of the international contracting agencies and, in turn, financial constraints likely contributed to a reduced scope of work for the gm process, leading to insufficient time allocated to conduct primary research in-country. these same policies and practices pressured the organization commissioned to conduct the cysa, creating a time crunch for them that ultimately was passed on to the gm component given its ultimately “separate” and inherently secondary status within the larger cysa process. while unintentional, these structural factors negatively impacted the gm process. turning to the incident that occurred at the national validation workshop, i have had time to conduct a deep and unsettling reflection to understand why i, as an international gender specialist, did not respond to the not only blatant sexism but also fallacious logic employed. to understand the dynamic that took place at the workshop, all three levels of care international’s gef are useful. in regards to agency, i am a woman. i am a highly educated forty-year old woman who has worked in the area of gender equality and mainstreaming globally for 10+ years. despite my education and experience, i felt much of my “agency” become fragile as this man systematically and quite skillfully demeaned me for not knowing a renowned soviet woman, dismissed my research findings as merely ideological hyperbole, and equated me to a hypocrite for having the audacity to come to moldova to point out problems of violence against women while being a woman from another country where gender-based violence is also prevalent. on the hand, my agency, notably confidence in my own abilities as a gender specialist, was undermined by this man. on the other hand, i was not technically prepared to coherently counter each of his faulty arguments. at the same time, i gave him a great deal of power in this moment; what would have counted was not necessarily the exact articulation i used but the intention to call out sexism in the moment of its occurrence. at the same time, my agency was my own because, ultimately, i made a conscious decision to not respond to him because alongside these feelings of wavering confidence and unpreparedness was a firm belief that i had a responsibility to not take up more time as another foreign “expert” in a space that was clearly intended for moldovans to share their experience and feedback about a policy that would affect their lives. the latter i believe was an attempt on my part to be reflexive in my practice by keeping in check the privilege and power that can come in the form of being an international consultant. at the same time, another issue of power imbalance was also at play in this scenario. the relations level of care’s gef is useful to understand this better. the other person in this scenario was a foreign male, working for an international organization in an influential advisory position to the moldovan government. each of these factors added layers to the power imbalance between him and me. however, the mere fact that he was a foreign man working in an influential position for an important international organization does not in itself cause the power balance. it was his decision to use these characteristics to tip the balance of power in his favor, and, in turn, “put me in my place” and ultimately show dominance. this happened through the acts, attitudes, and behaviors he employed during his 30-45 minute intervention: minimization of all my professional efforts and work that culminated in the final presentation by inappropriately telling me that i “deserved to be taken for a beer”; using language as power by insisting on speaking in english to ensure i clearly understood his message and that nothing was lost in translation; using faulty argumentative theoretical and scientifical journal 106 no. 1 / 2020 techniques to manipulate others in the audience, publicly humiliate me, and undermine the overall gm process i undertook in the cysa. if we look at this scenario from the structural perspective, two interesting questions emerge: (1) how does a man that clearly does not support gender mainstreaming end up in such as influential position in an organization that professes gender equality as a guiding principle? and (2) why were my female colleagues from other international organizations mostly silent in response as i was? exploring the first question from the structural lens points to the very real possibility that institutional policies, practices, and culture either directly or indirectly support these types of attitudes and allow them to co-exist within the organization that on paper is a beacon of equality. regarding the second question, i had the opportunity to reflect together with a couple of my female colleagues after the workshop. they were as indignant as i was about what happened. they explained that the reason they did not respond themselves and why the one response by another female colleague from a different organization was relatively reserved was because they feared some type of professional retaliation. they explained that the person was influential in upper levels of government, and accordingly, they could not be certain of whom he knows and/or what he would say about them had they publicly confronted him at the workshop. the latter points to a larger norm within both national and international organizations in moldova of silencing female and feminist voices. returning again to power dynamics, it also points to an additional area for my own reflexive practice on issues related to power and privilege to understand when i should remain silent as an international consultant and when i should use that same position to give voice to female colleagues in their home countries where they may not feel they have voice due to structural social constraints. conclusions the challenges to the gm process that emerged during the cysa are not isolated obstacles that can be resolved using solely functional or technical solutions. instead, my feminist reflective practice analysis reveals how the specific challenges of the gm process encountered are situated within a larger social structure of gender inequality and patriarchy characterized by discriminatory structures, gendered power relations, and women’s agency that, in many ways, continues to be influenced by men. this reveals that gm processes embody the same gender inequality and patriarchy that we encounter in our larger social structures, which, in turn, is one of the greatest threats to gm as an effective strategy to achieve gender equality. because gm is inseparable from the larger social structure, we need new strategies to ensure structural, relational, and agentic factors do not continue undermining the effectiveness of gm. this warrants increased research of the gm process from a critical, feminist lens using reflexive practice and other relevant methodological approaches to better understand how these blockages manifest themselves and how best to overcome them. it will require new approaches to gm that inherently involve transforming resistance to gm in all forms whether structural or direct, intentional or unintentional into a full embracing of gm. this will, by necessity, involve all institutions that play a role in policy development globally (e.g., international and regional organizations, national governments, donors, and others) to comprehensively examine all structural aspects that make up their institutions (policies, practices, capacities, culture, etc.) and determine how they support or undermine gm. it will require achieving more balanced power dynamics among the men and women who are supporting policy development nationally and internationally. it will also involve opening even more communities of practice for gender practitioners to sharpen our skills to effectively confront resistance to gm in the moment it occurs. we, as gender practitioners, must continue to advocate for increased preliminary and ongoing activities that go beyond gender training to include long-term critical reflection work, embedded gender equality specialists and facilitators, and on-going coaching and advising in governmental institutions to transform relevant stakeholders in policy development processes into champions of the gm process. the time is now as we take stock of the last 25 years since gm was introduced into the global discourse and practice at the fourth un women’s conference in beijing in 1995. without intentional inclusion of approaches that seek to prepare the policy development context for gm, we risk the continued mediocre results of gm, namely unrealized universal gender equality and women’s empowerment. references 1. bacchi, carol. gender/ing impact assessment: can it be made to work? in: c. bacchi, and j. eveline (eds). mainstreaming politics: gendering practices and feminist theory. adelaide: university of economy and sociology 107 no. 1 / 2020 adelaide press, 2010, pp. 17-39. e-isbn 978-0-9806723-8-1 [citat 15 aprilie 2020]. disponibil: http://library.oapen.org/bitstream/id/d29d407d-053e-4797-b07923d80d1baf3a/560246.pdf#page=109 2. bacchi, c., eveline, j. mainstreaming politics: 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https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/dime/brief/dime-gender-program https://writingcenter.unc.edu/tips-and-tools/fallacies/ theoretical and scientifical journal 96 december no. 2/2020 the moldovan bank fraud (2012-2015). a process tracing analysis of the moldovan $1 billion money laundering alexandrina varzari1, bachelor of international business and politics, copenhagen business school, danemarca doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-08 jel classification: d73, e5, f5, f15 udc: 343.359(478) abstract in the 2012-2015 period, $1 billion have been stolen from three moldovan banks, which is the equivalent of 12% of the country’s gdp. the highly fraudulent environment in the rm allowed for the successful application of fraudulent schemes for three years, without it being seized and frozen. this paper seeks to decipher the schemes that were applied as well as argue how the integration into the european union would have lowered the corruption and thereby prevent the fraud from happening. even though several scholars discussed the bank fraud and how it affected the relationship between moldova and the eu, they do not address how the steps of integration into the european union could gradually regulate the level of corruption in the rm and subsequently eliminate the possible methods of committing the bank fraud. through a comparative analysis of romania and the republic of moldova, i aim to demonstrate that the difference between the level of corruption and the stability of the banking system in these two countries is due to eu membership. further, through secondary analysis of qualitative data, and semi-constructed interviews, i conclude that, in theory, my argument holds – the instruments the eu applies on the candidate countries would not have allowed the fraudulent schemes to be put into action. however, the eu failed to apply the conditionality concept on romania and thus, it is possible that the money laundering in the rm could have happened even if it had been a member of the eu. keywords: bank fraud, republic of moldova, european union; international relations, corruption, european integration. după perioada 2012-2015, republica moldova a intrat într-o perioadă de stagnare economică din cauza fraudei bancare de 1 miliard de dolari, ceea ce reprezintă echivalentul a 12% din pib-ul țării. mediul extrem de fraudulos din rm a permis aplicarea cu succes a schemelor frauduloase timp de trei ani, fără a fi sesizate și înghețate. această lucrare urmărește să descifreze schemele care au fost aplicate, precum și să argumenteze modul în care integrarea în ue ar fi scăzut corupția și, prin urmare, ar fi prevenit frauda. chiar dacă mai mulți savanți au discutat despre frauda bancară și despre modul în care aceasta a afectat relația dintre moldova și ue, aceștia nu abordează modul în care etapele de integrare în uniunea europeană ar putea reglementa treptat nivelul corupției din rm și ulterior elimina posibilele metode de comiterea fraudei bancare. printr-o analiză comparativă a româniei și a republicii moldova, demonstrez că diferența dintre nivelul corupției și stabilitatea sistemului bancar din aceste două țări se datorează statutului de membru al ue. mai mult, prin analiza secundară a datelor calitative și interviurilor, concluzionez că, teoretic, argumentul meu este valabil. pe de altă parte, bazându-ne pe exemple empirice, ue nu a reușit să aplice conceptul de condiționalitate în românia. prin urmare, este posibil ca spălarea banilor în rm să se fi putut întâmpla chiar dacă ar fi fost membru al ue. cuvinte-cheie: fraudă bancară, republica moldova, uniunea europeană, relații internaționale, corupție, integrare europeană. в период 2012-2015 годов из трех молдавских банков был украден 1 миллиард долларов, что эквивалентно 12% ввп страны. среда с высокой степенью коррупций в рм позволила незаметно применять мошеннические схемы в течение трех лет. в этой статье расшифрованы применённые 1 id orci 0000-0001-8504-1271, e-mail: alexandrinavarzari135@gmail.com mailto:0000-0001-8504-1271 mailto:alexandrinavarzari135@gmail.com economy and sociology 97 december no. 2/2020 схемы, а также показано, как интеграция в ес снизила бы коррупцию и, таким образом, предотвратила бы мошенничество. несмотря на то, что ученые обсуждали банковское мошенничество и то, как оно повлияло на отношения между молдовой и ес, они не рассматривали, как шаги интеграции в европейский союз могли бы постепенно регулировать уровень коррупции в рм и впоследствии устранить возможные методы совершение банковского мошенничества. путем сравнительного анализа румынии и республики молдова эта статья демонстрирует, что разница между уровнем коррупции и стабильностью банковской системы в этих двух странах обусловлена членством в ес. кроме того, путем вторичного анализа качественных данных и интервью я прихожу к выводу, что теоретически мои аргументы верны, в то время как на самом деле ес не смог применить концепцию обусловленности в румынии. таким образом, не исключено, что отмывание денег в рм могло произойти, даже если бы она была членом ес. ключевые слова: банковское мошенничество, республика молдова, евросоюз, международные отношения; коррупция, европейская интеграция. introduction since the time of its establishment, the european union has lived through a striking dimensional expansion with the completion of the essential elements of the european project. eu enlargement has started with the 6 founding states – germany, france, italy, the netherlands, belgium, luxemburg and it has gone through a series of evolutionary stages, reaching 27 member states. the republic of moldova is approached through the prism of the european neighbourhood policy, launched by the european commission in may 2004 in response to the eu enlargement to the east and the need to avoid a new division of europe (eeas, 2016). moldova's european path is certainly more difficult and much more radical compared to the experiences of other member states, especially because of the high level of corruption. in this research paper i will reveal how the european union institutions such as the european commission and the european council shape the political and economic behaviour of candidate countries, and especially of countries from central and eastern europe, through the accession treaty, the process of negotiation and acquis communautaire. seeing that the eu institutions dictate the rules of the game, i want to uncover what the game is and learn how it is played. (steinmo, 2001). the theft of the billion in the rm was an intricate process, which was successful on the strength of the complex schemes, applied in the 2012-2015 period. the schemes involved the rotation of a small amount of liquidity amongst three national banks – social bank, unibank and economy bank. this event is accompanied by the liquidation of other numerous banks over the years, and so far, no efficient and transparent mechanism has been developed that would prevent fraud in the process of liquidating banks. for this reason, i examine the possibility that the theft would not have happened if the republic moldova had joined the european union before the bank fraud. theoretically, corruption should decrease considerably in a candidate country and such events as money laundering amounting to such colossal sums should not be possible. with this in mind, i put forward the following research question: „how could the integration to the european union prevent the bank fraud schemes of 2012-2015 in the republic of moldova?” likewise, my line of argument is that if the rm had implemented and respected all the requirements imposed on an applicant country to join the eu, the level of corruption would have declined, and the bank fraud would not have happened. to answer the research question, i will first introduce you to the empirical background and tell why there is so much corruption in the rm. next, i will discuss the theories on which i based my line of argument and my methodology choices. following the methodology part, i will move to the analysis of this study, where i will present my findings and discuss if they confirm the theory. lastly, i will develop the conclusion and reflect on how my theory, methodology and findings match. literature review briefly presenting the republic of moldova from its historic context will help shed light and explain why there is so much corruption, why it was possible to carry out the bank fraud in the first place as well as why the european integration has been and still is such a long process for the rm. the rm has a rich history which plays a great role in its actual international, political and economic situation. the country is a relatively young, independent, developing state which has its origins in the soviet union and the greater romania. the theoretical and scientifical journal 98 december no. 2/2020 phenomenon of corruption has, for a long time now, been a big problem for moldovan society. it has spread and infected all areas, institutions and the moldovan community and it poses a major danger to the prosperity of the state and its economic, social and democratic development. the period that favoured the establishment and the growth of corruption in the country is comprised within the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. this timeframe is characterized by the moldovan transition and adaptation from an autocratic to a democratic regime and market economy. it is well known that these kinds of transitions are often accompanied by serious consequences, such as the escalation of corruption, if the society is in crisis (ejova & prijilevscaia, 2012). corruption increased even more due to the 1998 regional crisis when russia experienced a decrease in raw material prices, which amounted to 80% of russia’s export. since moldovan economy was heavily dependent on russia’s, it pushed 70% of the population into absolute poverty and 50% of the population into extreme poverty (negură, 2016). in such an unhealthy economic environment, the communist party came to power, supported by a disappointed society with the present power structures and nostalgia for the previous political order. (negură, 2016). the fierce transformations that the moldovan society has undergone such as deportations, industrialization, collectivization and famine – have created deep social and economic inequalities. these transformations have brought moldova into a deep stalemate that seemed impossible to overcome in the period prior to the bank fraud. at the same time, all institutions were captured and controlled by politicians who did not want any change and had a major interest in maintaining the status quo. thereby, there was no intellectuality, cohesive vision, or even a plan on how the republic of moldova should function further. there was vast instability in society on whether the country should join either the eu, or the customs union or any other entity imposed by the russian federation, or should seek union with romania. there was no country project or a well-structured agenda for further actions (negura, sprinceana, & ernu, 2016). the neo-functionalist theory was developed by ernst b. haas. the core concept of this theory associated with european integration is ‘spillover’. it refers to the process when cooperating countries that pursue a specific goal end up formulating new goals that need to be achieved to reach the original goal (jensen, 2018). applied to the case of the republic of moldova, the state aims to join the european union with the ultimate goal of implementing changes for the better at the political, economic, and cultural levels, but also to have access to the single market. however, since the country faces such considerable problems as corruption, to achieve its goal it must set new political goals in the field of justice, for instance, to defeat this obstacle and become a member state. if the moldovan state had implemented the copenhagen criteria and parts of the acquis communautaire before the bank fraud, it would have gone through a gradual transition from a deep-rooted post-soviet mentality, which gave rise to the corruption phenomenon, to european democratic current affairs. consequently, the bank fraud most probably would not have happened. this argument was developed on the grounds of the top-down europeanization theory. hypothetically, the top-down phenomenon describes how the eu restructures institutions, processes and political outcomes in candidate countries (börzel & panke, 2018). i thereby assume that if the rm had decided to join the european community, the eu would have caused domestic changes because of the nonconformity in beliefs and institutions between the economic community and the candidate state. top-down europeanization has proven very efficient in shaping policies, politics and polity in cases of unstable democracy and new-comers, such as cee countries. all the same, it is possible that a member state might attempt a democratic backsliding, which demonstrates that europeanization is not an irreversible process. for instance, the hungarian prime minister made an attempt to reverse the institutional changes that were implemented as a condition of eu membership (börzel & panke, 2018). yet, there are very few such cases. the european union conditionality is, in practice, the ability to influence the behaviour of a candidate country by making attractive offers under a specific condition or set of conditions. in the case of the rm, the attractive offer is to join the eu and the condition is, among others, to fight corruption. it is a mechanism that has been used with all the central and eastern european (сee) countries. it is important to add that the conditions for сee countries are much more detailed and comprehensive than for other countries. to illustrate, international financial institutions, such as the imf or world bank can offer financial benefits with the condition that a country implements specific economic policies (grabbe, 2002). the set of conditions that are proposed to cee countries are clear and fixed, as opposed to the highly politicized, complex and less clear economy and sociology 99 december no. 2/2020 conditions imposed by the eu (grabbe, 2002). further, once these states join the eu, there is no clear mechanism to monitor corruption and sometimes the phenomenon comes back. data sources and used methods the method of difference is one of the four modern comparative methods developed by john stuart mill. according to mill, the world is consistent and there is a causal regularity underneath what seems to be an irregularity or a “confusing surface of things” (moses & knutsen, 2012). these causal regularities can be discovered by applying scientific methods of systematic comparison over areas. thereby, in this research paper, i will compare the political and social welfare in romania and the republic of moldova. i will focus on the level of corruption and the actions romania has taken to prevent money laundering in the context of eu conditionality. these countries are relatively similar and share several common features such as culture, language and history, but are significantly different in levels of wealth, social welfare and political position. this paper assumes that, among others, the european union membership accounts for this significant inequality between these two neighbouring countries. the presence of this explanatory factor in romania and its absence in the rm can be used to explain the variation in such outcomes as the level of corruption and state welfare. one should, nevertheless, consider these two shortcomings when applying the comparative methods: over-determination and sampling bias. both deficiencies can lead to erroneous conclusions about the world. thus, i will combine the deductive and inductive approaches to “test hypothesis concerning causal arguments even when the number of observations is relatively small” (moses & knutsen, 2012). process tracing serves to find a causal relationship between an independent variable and the outcome of a phenomenon in the social world. in the present study, this process will help identify how the high level of corruption led to the “theft of the century” in the rm. i developed a causal relationship between corruption and the bank fraud of 2014 and analysed the causal mechanism connecting the two concepts. by definition, process tracing implies “attempts to identify the intervening causal process – the causal chain and causal mechanism – between an independent variable and the outcome of the dependent variable” (beach & pedersen, 2013). i will employ the explaining outcome process analysis, which is case-centric and can be thought of as a single-outcome study (beach & pedersen, 2013). i used it to explain how the mechanisms to produce this fraud were put into action. to answer the research question of this paper i collected data from primary and secondary sources in a qualitative manner. i conducted semi-structured interviews, analysed academic documents and papers as well as theoretical reflections of such scholars as ernst b. haas, börzel and panke, steinmo on hall as well as grabbe. mostly, i collected data about the bank fraud from a report constructed by kroll associates uk limited, registered in the united kingdom, which was selected by the national bank of moldova to conduct preliminary investigations into alleged financial irregularities at the three moldovan banks (sîrbu, 2015). thanks to it, some of the persons and companies that participated in the money laundering were revealed and were later imprisoned. doubtless, since it is not a report made by moldovan institutions but a third party, i think it is highly trustworthy. moreover, i analysed the accession treaty of romania to predict what reforms would the rm have gone through as a candidate country. i choose the romanian access treaty for the reason that the country is the most similar to the rm in ethnographic aspects. to collect qualitative, primary data i conducted semi-structured interviews. what made semi-structured interviews attractive is that the interviewer could depart from the list of questions if it was relevant and important (bryman, 2012). secondly, it allows accumulating solid facts from experts in the domain. in the interest of obtaining reliable information, i interviewed moldovan economy expert viorel gîrbu. results of own research and discussions bank fraud. schemes and methods the first aspect to point out is that the money laundering process of $1 billion from the three national banks unfolded in two phases: 1. the acquisition of the banks; 2. the perpetration of fraud schemes. further, i will describe each of the phases. the acquisition of the three banks 2012-2013 the acquisition of unibank (ub) between 2007 and 2012 the share structure of ub was composed principally of a single significant shareholder – vienna capital partners unternehmensberatungs ag, based in austria. on 17 august 2012, 8 uk-registered companies, 12 moldovan and 1 russian citizen became the new shareholders of the bank, theoretical and scientifical journal 100 december no. 2/2020 each owning a stake of between 4.5% and 4.99%. at that moment, none of them could buy a stake in a bank of 5% or above, because conform the moldovan law a person who holds a stake of 5% and above is considered a significant shareholder and requires formal approval from the national bank of moldova (moldova, 2012). the source of funds used to purchase ub shares was loans from corporate entities, that wired funds through banks in latvia, a non-oecd country. the same corporate entity was used to fund not only one but several shareholders. further, in seven cases, shareholders individuals financed their purchase of ub shares with loans from an entity that had direct links to ilan shor, one of the suspects involved in the fraud (kroll, 2015). the nbm and the kroll report could not clearly identify how shareholder companies funded their share acquisitions, because they were shell companies and the declared beneficiaries were nominees. thus, we could assume that their ultimate ownership of the shares was intentionally hidden (kroll, 2015). the acquisition of social bank (sb) prior to its acquisition in 2013, sb was owned by numerous minority shareholders who are apparently unrelated. as a result of the sale, 50% of the bank’s share capital was transferred to moldovan, russian and ukrainian individuals as well as moldova-based companies. again, each of them did not hold 5% or more of the shares, as this would have required national bank of moldova approval. reminiscent of unibank, sb most shareholders had the role of nominees to mask the real beneficiaries. while some had close ties to ilan shor, others had profiles that did not match a typical investor who would be interested in purchasing stakes in a moldovan bank, with their acquisition being financed through loans from offshore entities. all these individuals seem unrelated at first sight, but they actually share one noteworthy fact – the funding of share acquisition. the companies and individuals who acquired shares in the bank financed their acquisition through multiple offshore shell companies with common addresses and latvian bank accounts (kroll, 2015). the acquisition of economy bank (bem) in 2013, the moldovan state had had a majority stake of 56.12% in bem. the bem had liquidity shortfall because of a growing non-performing loan portfolio. the bank’s exposure at that time was mainly moldovan companies (kroll, 2015). the solution that was applied was share issuing to raise capital. regardless, the moldovan state did not have enough funds or, according to the economy expert viorel gîrbu, it simply did not want to acquire any additional shares (gîrbu, 2:56). consequently, the shares of the state were reduced to a blocking stake of 33.3(3)% plus one share. then, an existing shareholder bought the number of shares lost by the state, reaching 33.8% and the rest were acquired by various russian individuals via offshore entities. in a similar manner as that regarding bs and ub, not only did the shareholders had the same sources of funding, but also used their shares in bem to guarantee loans issued by bs to various moldovan companies. figure 1. a summary of the ownership structure of the shor group and the ways of financing the acquisition of the three banks source: elaborated by the author. economy and sociology 101 december no. 2/2020 figure 1 summarises the process of how he unibank, banca socială and banca de economii shares have been bought. it illustrates the ownership structure of the shor group, which executed the bank fraud, as well as the method of financing the purchase of shares in the three moldovan banks. the first aspect to point out is that the shor group, the final beneficiary of the bank fraud, tried to disguise its attempt to gain control over the banks. in order to do so, it enshrouded the fact that it was the final beneficiary of the moldovan firms that were involved in the share acquisition by employing nominees or, as shown in figure 1, declared beneficiaries. the connection between the declared beneficiaries and the shor group was kept in secret and this is represented by the blue dashed lines in the figure. at the same time, the blue straight lines show the ownership links. the flow of funds utilized to finance the share purchase is in red arrows. shortly, the shor group instructed the offshore companies that it owns to wire funds through latvian banks, a country out of the oecd zone, to the offshore entities. these, in turn, directly controlled the moldovan individuals and companies that used the money to buy shares in the three financial institutions (monahov & jobert, 2017). the perpetration of fraud schemes and money laundering – 2014-2015 at this point we will analyse the schemes applied by the shor group in the successful money laundering at greater detail. to begin with, the main goals behind the schemes were to: “maximize available liquidity for banks to lend to controlled firms prevent prudential indicators from deteriorating to avoid supervision from central bank extract money from the moldovan financial system by laundering it to nonoecd banks” (monahov & jobert, 2017) scheme 1 the first scheme, also known as the “roseau transaction”, was put in action shortly after obtaining control over banca de economii. the origin of this name comes from the transaction performed by the financial institution of a part of its non-performing loan (npl) portfolio to a uk based entity, roseau alliance llp. it is unclear why this entity agreed to buy the entire npl portfolio at face value and thereby effectively cancelling the “distressed assets” of bem in exchange for cash (kroll, 2015). moreover, this company had been incorporated only one year before this transaction was held. for this reason, the roseau alliance entity is considered an investment vehicle/shell company that is also under the control of the holding company (kroll, 2015). consequently, the purpose of this transaction was to maximize the capacity of the bank to lend to companies and individuals controlled by the shor group (monahov & jobert, 2017). scheme 2 the second scheme applied by the shor group was loan shifting between client groups, firms and banks. the goal they wanted to achieve when shifting loans between firms was to “build trust in the form of a sound credit record allowing the controlled firms to request increasingly large amounts of credit without raising suspicion” (monahov & jobert, 2017). to do so, four strategies were employed: 1. “firms systematically borrowed money from any one of the three banks; 2. they have transferred the money to a firm whose credit was due to mature in the near future and 3. the firm whose credit matured repaid the loan, only to 4. later borrow again to repay another firm’s loan” (monahov & jobert, 2017). the amount borrowed by firms was increasing every time they requested money from financial institutions with these, in turn, demonstrating healthy statistics in the allocated credits. the shor group was able to successfully use this scheme for a longer period without being detected thanks to two significant factors. first of all, there was a large number of firms and banks involved in this procedure and secondly, the funds transferred between the controlled firms were done through offshore entities. accordingly, it was challenging at that instant to track linkages between the firms controlled by the holding company. moreover, as long as the banks were receiving funds back, their liquidity was increasing, which enabled them to increase lending. scheme 3 another means that the holding company employed to temporary improve the prudential indicators was loan shifting in the ranks of client categories. the reason it succeeded is that the banks theoretical and scientifical journal 102 december no. 2/2020 insensibly decreased its exposure to non-controlled firms. this resulted in increased liquidity and the bank was more exposed to offer credit loans to controlled firms. however, the bank’s “large” exposures standard increased (monahov & jobert, 2017), which means that the financial institution exposes itself too much to individual clients or groups of connected clients (eba, 2020). scheme 4 the next method used was the circular bank deposit scheme. it had the same purpose as the others above: to diminish the aggravation of prudential indicators in the wake of loan issuance. this scheme was developed on the basis of the regulatory norms which affirms that if “a firm provides bank deposits as collateral for any given loan, then the loan’s risk weighting is diminished to reflect the existence of collateral”. in such a way, the bank’s capital adequacy ratio would decrease slower as long as the debtor provides collateral when requesting a credit. however, shell companies do not have capital at their disposal and thus are not capable to turn it into bank deposits. for this reason, the scheme was applied in such way that at least two banks opened a “deposit account with own funds in the name of the company to be credited” (monahov & jobert, 2017), so that the company can then present the documents to the bank it requests the credit from. once the prudential indicator improves, the financial institution can issue more credits until it reaches the regulatory limits. further, after the bank receives the deposit it issues similar deposits. through this scheme, money can be “reused” endlessly to lower risk weights for loans (monahov & jobert, 2017). scheme 5 the last scheme finalized the process of money laundering by maximizing the available liquidity. the method is quite simple and straightforward: the banks that were under the control of the holding company borrowed money from other moldovan non-controlled banks. in the financial environment of the time, non-controlled banks which had high liquidity were willing to lend because loan demand was weak, interest rates were low and there was no risk that the receiving institutions would not repay. but even if they failed at that point, there was a general expectation in the moldovan financial environment that if a banking institution faced a failure, it would be saved anyway. that is why moldovan banks often agreed to engage in interbank lending, and thus the controlled banks took advantage of this and borrowed large sums of money for long periods (monahov & jobert, 2017). analysis next, i will analyse how the eu strategy of enlargement to the cee countries would have shaped the political and economic behaviour in moldova. in order to open the eu accession negotiations, a country must meet the first copenhagen criterion – institution building, which is a process of “training and equipping a wide range of civil servants, public officials, professionals and relevant private sector actors” (european commission, 2001). a way to establish such institutions is through the twinning instruments, which were applied to the 2007 joining of romania. by definition, it means that a country in the pre-accession stage can install “modern and efficient administrations, with the same structures, human resources and management skills similar to ones that already exist in the member states” (european commission, 2001). to illustrate, romania has established the national anti-corruption directorate (dna) on the example of spain. this institution is in the top five anti-corruption institutions in the eu and has achieved impressive results in “solving high and medium level corruption cases” (european commission, 2017). this means that the implementation of an institution such as the dna in the rm would have been necessary in its pre-accession period. the second and more complex stage is the negotiations, which require reforms in all 35 chapters of the acquis communautaire. i will only analyze the ones that relate to the bank fraud. i will begin with chapter 9: financial services. this chapter refers to the compliance of the regulations in the field of financial services, namely the banking services with the eu acquis. the objective of this chapter of the acquis is to establish a high level of stability, security and efficiency in the financial system of the adherent countries, so they meet european requirements in the field of financial services. the national bank of moldova is the regulatory authority of the banking financial sector and has the power source to promote changes in the field to align banking operations with european requirements. consequently, the institution would have to implement specific changes in the sector relying on the following reference document implemented in the european union: core principles for effective banking supervision. these principles have the purpose to reinforce the global financial system and eliminate weaknesses in economy and sociology 103 december no. 2/2020 the banking system within a country (basel committee on banking supervision). in total, there are 29 principles, but i discuss the most efficient ones for this case: • principle 6: transfer of significant ownership. “the supervisor has the power to review, reject and impose prudential conditions on any proposals to transfer significant ownership or controlling interests held directly or indirectly in existing banks to other parties”. under prudential review and conditions imposed, the major ownership restructure of the unibank would have attracted the attention of nbm. the purchase of the ub shares by 21 identities, with a stake between 4.5% and 5% each is suspicious and thus, with external assistance, the nbm would have been able to identify the dubious share transfer to the shor group and reject it. • principle 19: concentration risk and large exposure limits. “the supervisor determines that banks have adequate policies and processes to identify, measure, evaluate, monitor, report and control or mitigate concentrations of risk on a timely basis. supervisors set prudential limits to restrict bank exposures to single counterparties or groups of connected counterparties”. such supervision from nbm would have prevented the three moldovan banks to expose themselves only to firms and individuals controlled by the shor group. • principle 29: abuse of financial services. “the supervisor determines that banks have adequate policies and processes, including strict customer due diligence rules to promote high ethical and professional standards in the financial sector and prevent the bank from being used, intentionally or unintentionally, for criminal activities” (basel committee on banking supervision, 2012). this principle is crucial, because one of the main reasons the bank fraud was successful is the lack of means to track and evaluate the financial institutions’ counterparties. if the nbm would have had the tools to access such information, it could have determined the linkage between companies, clients and banks, but also its profiles. for example, many individuals did not represent investor profiles, and several companies controlled by the holding company had been inaugurated a year before the schemes were applied. the next chapter of the acquis that we shall take into consideration is chapter 24: justice and home affairs. among other things, european policies seek to fight internationally organized crime. thereby, member states must be adequately equipped to be able to comply with union rules (european commission). in the pre-accession period, countries must successfully integrate law enforcement agencies and other relevant bodies with efficient and strong functioning capacity. in 1993, the eu implemented three new instruments to ensure justice across the area. one of them is the most important to this study: a convention. for example – europol, whose responsibilities include to “streamline the competent authorities of the member states and strengthen cooperation in the following area(s): money laundering associated with international criminal activities” (românia, 2005). equally important, the liaison officers within this institution work both in the member countries and in the countries outside the area. they are responsible for collecting information and communicating directly to the competent authorities about fraudulent acts in the host country. cooperating with europol would have helped to annihilate operation “titirezul”, as it proved to be efficient in similar frauds. for instance, europol helped the spanish guardia civil in operation “usura” to stop money laundering schemes linked to two famous russian criminal syndicates (europol). a comparative analysis between romania and moldova one of the main differences between romania and the rm in the period before the bank fraud was the level of corruption and the functioning of the bank sector. according to the corruption perception index (cpi), in 2012, romania’s score was 44/100, while moldova’s was 36/100 (cpi, 2012). at first sight, it might not appear as a big difference, but if we compare the level of corruption in romania before it joined the eu, we will seize the result of the eu conditionality mechanism. indeed, in 2004 romania has scored 29/100, as reported by cpi, corruption being a significant problem for the country and its population. moreover, the accession to the eu has shown a positive impact on the banking system. after 2007, the national bank of romania (nbr) strengthened its performance, becoming more efficient as it became a member of the european system of central banks (dragan, 2010). the nbr, in the role of the main supervisor, has been able to efficiently monitor the national banks and has implemented “new measures to improve the prudential regulatory theoretical and scientifical journal 104 december no. 2/2020 framework and in collaboration with the government signed some funding agreements with the imf and the eu” (dragan, 2010). this resulted in a healthy, safer banking market. the moldovan highly corrupted environment resulted in the money laundering of $1 billion, especially because of the lack of effective supervision, cooperation of the national bank of moldova with national and international agencies as well as prudential conditions. we can thus conclude that the explanatory factor in such contradictory outcomes is eu integration. counterargument the accession of romania to the eu might have shown positive progress towards fighting corruption and prevent money laundering, but its journey was not accompanied by a coherent policy against corruption. the problem was that the european union has not developed an ample scenery against corruption for candidate countries. even though in 1998 it established new strategies to evaluate the anti-corruption efforts in the cee countries, it did not develop an effective way to evaluate these strategies. besides, the commission did not communicate these strategies in a clear, systematic manner in a single document to the candidate countries. the eu understood these weaknesses thus reinforced its strategies towards the accession of romania (szarek-mason, 2010). the reinforced strategies included the possibility to postpone the year of accession if the countries were not prepared to meet the conditions of membership; and the implementation of a monitoring mechanism that verifies the progress in combatting corruption after the countries had joined the eu (szarek-mason, 2010). even under such conditions, the 2005 and 2006 reports have shown that corruption was still a significant, widespread problem and there have not been significant improvements. however, this did not result in the postponement condition. even with further monitoring strategies, romania failed to meet the requirement. consequently, the reinforced strategies of the eu commission proved to be ineffective (szarek-mason, 2010). equally relevant is the fact that the republic of moldova could have joined the european union even if it had failed to meet the conditions of membership. as economy expert viorel gârbu argues, in its european journey, the republic of moldova was at the same level as the baltic states, which joined in 2004 and 2007. similarly, if romania succeeded to join, the rm would have succeeded as well. in addition, the financial institutions that participated in the bank fraud were from a european country, and those who participated have taken the necessary measures to cover and reap certain benefits regardless of the regulatory framework. according to mr gârbu, the european union does not intervene so deeply in domestic policies and the implementation of the romanian national anticorruption directorate was established because of effective leadership. he thinks that there was a person “who wanted to fight corruption, but that person was not named by the eu. they were not delegated by the eu”. what’s more, as the economy expert says, even though the rm was a member state, the bank fraud could still happen, and the eu would not have taken any measures. the eu would not have cut monetary donations, because it would lose its leverage: “for donors, money is not important, politics is important and also is the possibility to intervene in politics” (gârbu, 2020). discussion i will now continue with a concluding discussion on how the theories and findings harmonize, with little dispute. first, to access the single market, the republic of moldova would have to meet the first copenhagen criterion, a fact that coincides with the concept of spillover. as discussed earlier, the eu applies the twinning tool to help a candidate country implement effective institutions following the example of a member state. thus, moldova would have to resort to the help of a member state to develop a modern and efficient administration as well as implement legislative and institutional models that work well. following the fulfilment of the copenhagen criteria condition, the rm would move to the negotiations stage, that is an appropriate example of top-down europeanization. both chapters 9 and 24 that are negotiated address the problem of international organized crime and money laundering and the measures that should be applied to prevent a violation of the banking system. the core principles for effective banking supervision offer instruments that are imposed by the commission in the pre-accession period to establish a high level of stability, security and efficiency in the financial system of the adherent countries. the european journey of romania is a representation of the conditionality concept. in its preaccession period, the eu influenced its behaviour by imposing conditions to fight corruption. economy and sociology 105 december no. 2/2020 unfortunately, in the case of romania, the conditionality concept was not efficient. even though the country had shown progress, such as the establishment of the national anticorruption directorate, it did not meet the conditions of membership. the eu imposed the condition that the country had to step up and to carry out certain reforms if it wanted to become a member state or its accession would be postponed for a year. romania did not meet the condition but still joined the eu in 2007. thereby, we can assume that the republic of moldova could have joined the eu even with high records of corruption. even if the eu tried to apply its strategy of monitoring the progress of moldova in its attempts to fight corruption in the post-accession period, the findings show that no drastic consequences would have been applied. it is very possible, thus, that the bank fraud could still have happened. conclusion this research paper aimed to test the theory that the integration to the european union could prevent the bank fraud schemes of 2012-2015 in the republic of moldova. through a deductive and inductive approach, we can conclude two main points. firstly, in theory, if the republic of moldova had implemented the necessary instruments and conditions imposed by the eu regarding money laundering and banking system, it would have destroyed any possibility of putting the fraudulent schemes into action. reforms in the banking system were necessary for the rm in order to establish a high level of stability, security and efficiency in the financial system. the national bank of moldova would have had to “set and enforce minimum prudential standards for banks and banking groups” (basel committee on banking supervision) which would have informed the supervisor when these standards are violated. moreover, an effective supervision from the nbm, which would have cooperated with national and international agencies would have provided the opportunity to observe and stop the bank fraud, if not preventing it in advance. especially because the nbm would have had the power to “review the overall activities of a banking group, both domestic and crossborder”, this could have revealed its ways of transferring money abroad to finance the acquisition of shares in the bank. moreover, cooperation with cepol would provide the nbm with innovative and advanced security and law enforcement training while cooperating with europol, would offer assistance to the supervisor to collect information and “identify, prosecute, freeze or confiscate the instruments” of executing the bank fraud. secondly, based on romania’s experience of fulfilling the european conditions, we can conclude that the bank fraud could still have happened, even if the republic of moldova had joined the european union. this is because the eu conditionality on post-communist countries’ transition was general and indistinct. the eu did not have a distinct agenda, and its ways to influence the levels of government were not evident (grabbe, 2002). as discussed before, even though romania had been imposed to insure the fulfilment of numerous conditions for accession and several strategies to be verified upon, the country had not been provided with a clear plan and a comprehensive anticorruption framework. as a result, romania had not succeeded to meet the requirements against corruption and international organised crime and no drastic sanction had been imposed. in fact, romania received further support for anti-corruption reforms. thereby, if the rm would have shared the same journey to access the single market, most probably there would have been little impediments to carry out money laundering. references 1. sprînceană, v., negură, p. tranziţia in̂ republica moldova: instrucţiuni de utilizare. introducere. in: negură, p., sprînceană, v., ernu, v. coord. republica moldova la 25 de ani: o încercare de bilanţ. chişinău : cartier, 2016, pp. 7-18. isbn 978-9975-79-902-7, isbn 978-997586-101-4. 2. negură, p. republica moldova la un sfert de veac de tranziţie: in̂tre un comunism ratat şi un capitalism nein̂ceput? in: negură, p., sprînceană, v., ernu, v. coord. republica moldova la 25 de ani: o încercare de bilanţ. chişinău : cartier, 2016, pp. 35-39. isbn 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republic of moldova natalia bargan2, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.2-07 jel classification: j10, j13, j19 udc: 614.3 abstract the article presents the results of the sociological study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities" (in baze on 1047 questionnaires with mothers with preschool children and 20 in-depth sociological interviews), conducted by the center for demographic research of nier. the purpose of the study consisted in analyzing the particularities of reconciling the family life and the professional life of mothers with preschool children, in highlighting the difficulties they face in reintegrating into the labour market after child care leave and in determining the factors that contributes to facilitating the process of balancing family and professional life. the results of the study revealed that families face difficulties in establishing and maintaining a balance between many and sometimes contradictory demands of family and professional life. the interviewed mothers highlighted a high level of motivation to be employed, but the defining reason for returning to the labor market is the need to earn money. depending on the professional and family orientations, mothers with preschool children can be divided into three categories: mothers who want to combine the work with raising children (65%), mothers who intend to make a career but do not forget about children (21.3%) and mothers who prefer to be housewifes and take care of children (13.7%). although the support of the husband moderates the relationship between family and professional responsibilities, the results of the study have shown that there is a tendency for women to take full responsibility of the household and child care. the lack of quality care and education services for preschool children, the absence of flexible work programs but also the unequal distribution of family responsibilities contribute to making the work-family life balance a predominant problem. keywords: life-work balance, work-family conflict, sociological study. în articol sunt prezentate rezultatele studiului sociologic „părinții între necesitatea de a munci și responsabilitățile familiale” (în baza la 1047 de chestionare cu mame cu copii de vârstă preșcolară și 20 de interviuri sociologice aprofundate), desfășurat de ccd al ince. scopul studiului a constat în analiza particularităților de reconciliere a vieții de familie și a vieții profesionale a mamelor cu copii de vârstă preșcolară, în evidențierea dificultăților cu care se confruntă la reintegrarea în câmpul muncii după aflarea în concediul de îngrijire a copilului și în determinarea factorilor ce contribuie la facilitarea procesului de echilibrare a vieții familiale și profesionale. rezultatele studiului au relevat că familiile se confruntă cu dificultăți în stabilirea și menținerea unui echilibru între numeroasele și uneori contradictoriile solicitări ale vieții de familie și a celei profesionale. mamele intervievate au evidențiat un nivel ridicat de motivație pentru a fi încadrate în câmpul muncii, însă motivul determinant pentru a reveni în câmpul muncii este necesitatea de a câștiga bani. în funcție de orientările profesionale și familiale, mamele cu copii de vârstă preșcolară pot fi divizate în trei categorii: mame care își doresc să combine serviciul cu creșterea copiilor (65%), mame care intenționează să facă carieră, dar să nu uite nici de copii (21,3%) și mame care preferă să fie casnică și să aibă grijă de copii (13,7%). deși sprijinul soțului moderează relația între responsabilitățile familiale și cele profesionale, rezultatele studiului au evidențiat că se păstrează tendința ca femeile să-și asume întreaga responsabilitate a gospodăriei și a îngrijirii copiilor. lipsa serviciilor calitative de îngrijire și educație a copiilor 1 © inga chistruga-sînchevici, i_sinchevici@yahoo.com 2 © natalia bargan, nataly_bargan@gmail.com mailto:i_sinchevici@yahoo.com theoretical and scientifical journal 82 no. 2 / 2019 de vârstă preșcolară, absența programelor flexibile la locul de muncă, dar și continua distribuție inegală a responsabilităților familiale dintre soți determină faptul că îmbinarea rolurilor profesionale cu cele familiale rămâne o problemă predominantă. cuvinte-cheie: echilibrul viață-muncă, conflictul muncă-familie, studiul sociologic. в статье представлены результаты социологического исследования «родители между необходимостью работать и семейными обязанностями» (на основе 1047 анкет для матерей с детьми дошкольного возраста и 20 социологических глубинных интервью), проведенного центром демографических исследований ниэи. цель исследования состояла в том, чтобы проанализировать особенности совмещения семейных ролей и профессиональной деятельности матерей с детьми дошкольного возраста, выявить трудности, с которыми они сталкиваются при реинтеграции на рынке труда после отпуска по уходу за ребенком, и определить факторы, способствующие сбалансированности семейной и профессиональной жизни. результаты исследования показали, что семьи сталкиваются с трудностями в установлении и поддержании определённого баланса между многочисленными, а порой и противоречивыми запросам семьи и требованиями профессиональной деятельности. опрошенные матери продемонстрировали высокий уровень мотивации для включения в рынок труда, при этом определяющей причиной возвращения на рынок труда является необходимость зарабатывать деньги. в зависимости от профессиональной и семейной ориентации, матерей с детьми-дошкольниками можно разделить на три категории: матери, которые желают совмещать работу с воспитанием детей (65%), матери, ориентированные на карьеру, не забывая при этом о детях (21 3%) и матери, предпочитающие быть домохозяйками и посвятить себя заботе о детях (13,7%). несмотря на то, что поддержка супруга способствует сочетанию трудовой деятельности с выполнением семейных обязанностей, результаты исследования показали, что женщины по-прежнему склонны нести полную ответственность за домашнее хозяйство и заботу о детях. отсутствие качественных услуг по уходу и воспитанию детей дошкольного возраста, гибких программ на рабочих местах, а также продолжающееся неравное распределение семейных обязанностей между супругами способствуют тому, что баланс между работой и личной жизнью остается доминирующей проблемой. ключевые слова: баланс между работой и семейной жизнью, конфликт между работой и семьей, социологическое исследование. introduction. family and work are two important focal points in adult's life and are interconnected. in today's society full of responsibilities and commitments, the relationship between work and family life has become a predominant problem, given that the balance between these aspects is one of the fundamental conditions for increasing the return on human capital. the deep interest in the relationship between professional and family lifes is due to sociodemographic factors increase in the number of couples in which both partners are employed, in the number of single-parent families, but also due to the emphasis on the importance of professional identity for women. in addition, the fact that the age of formation of families is constantly increasing contributes to the emergence of the phenomenon of the "intermediate" or "sandwich" generation, consisting of those who have to take care of an elderly relative while raising small children, studies show that women are more likely than men to experience this situation [20, st-amour n. ș.a., 2007]. difficulties in maintaining a balance between professional and family lifes are also determined by the reduced child care and education facilities, the system of child care and education not beeing sufficiently developed; by the rigidity of work schedules that do not allow to achieve a balance between professional and personal life and the continuous unequal distribution of family tasks between husband and wife, family responsibilities interfering with career development. the tasks of combining professional and family roles are today the objectives of state social policy. the republic of moldova has a developed legislative framework and actively participates in international treaties that prohibit discrimination in employment. in the national strategic program on demographic security of the republic of moldova (2011-2025) it is specified that in order to develop measures to solve family problems, it is proposed to promote the father's broader involvement in raising children by granting paid leave of paternity and leave for raising the child with special provisions for fathers; establishing a flexible work program to facilitate the process of raising children; ensuring equal payment / remuneration for women and men. economy and sociology 83 no. 2 / 2019 also, several changes were made to the legal framework. according to the amendments to the law on temporary disability allowances and other social security benefits from july 1, 2019, parents who receive child care allowances but decide to work will receive both the allowance and salary. the child care leave has been reformed by increasing the child care allowance commensurate to the reduction of the period of care leave. other changes are related to reducing unpaid care leave from 6 years to 4 years and completing the labor code with art. 124¹ parental leave. the theoretical framework of the study. the key concepts used in the present scientific paper are: work-family life balance, work-family conflict and family-work conflict. the syntagm "work/life balance" was proposed in 1985, although its use in everyday language has been sporadic for several years. the balance between these two components means allocating an equal interval of time to both segments of life, avoiding the disadvantage of one of them. this balance does not come by itself and is the result of a good organization and discipline, varying according to individual, family, organizational and societal characteristics. the conceptualization of work-family balance as a conflict is related to the deficit hypothesis, according to which individuals possess a certain amount of time and energy that must be distributed between different roles they play. researchers greenhaus j. and beutell n. [12, 1985] had an important role in conceptualizing the term of conflict between work and family, establishing that conflict can have three forms: based on time, tension and behavior. time-based conflict arises when the pressures in one area affect the fulfillment of the requirements associated with the other one, the employees do not have enough time to successfully or comfortably complete all the tasks associated with their work and family. time-based conflicts arise when the demands imposed by different roles make time management difficult. moreover, concerns about one role may affect the readiness to perform tasks related to another role, even if the person is physically present. tension-based conflict results when stress generated during the performance of a role affects how a person meets the requirements of other roles. behavior-based conflict refers to the phenomenon whereby a behavior specific to one role is incompatible with the behavior required of another role. certain characteristics that are appreciated in the world of work, such as objectivity and aggressiveness, may be incompatible with family needs and expectations. there is a need to adjust the behaviors to the context in which the person is. some researchers like sulea c., virga d., galben n. have pointed out that women experience more work-family conflict based on behavior and family-work conflict based on tension. that is, women cannot take on the successful behavioral strategies that they adopt at work to solve family problems, and the tensions in their personal lives tend to generate conflicting states at work. men experience, to a greater extent, work-family conflict based on time. that is, they spend too much time at work and have no time resources for family activities [23, sulea c., vîrgă d., galben n., 2010]. in the specialized literature two directions of the conflict between work and family are distinguished: the work-family conflict and the family-work conflict. work-family conflict occurs when work-related activities intersect with household responsibilities or when work-related stress has negative effects on family behaviors. the conflict between family and work arises when family responsibilities impede work activities or when family stress has negative effects on work performance. although closely related, they are conceptually and empirically distinct constructs. the analysis of literature [1, ahmad a., 2008] in the field allowed us to identify several sources of conflict: 1. from the workplace: the ambiguity of roles in the workplace; overcharging; organizational culture; frequent job related trips; style of time management practiced in the organization; type of job position; job flexibility. 2. from the perspective of personal beliefs and aspirations: the lifestyle; perfection in work; emotional health problems; values of the role of life. 3. from the family: needs regarding the assurance of financial or material resources; maintaining and sustaining interpersonal relationships; involvement in raising and educating children; health problems of a family member; number of children; life cycle stage; child care arrangements. an important researched aspect concerns the specific factors related to the evolution of technologies with implications in generating conflicts between work and family. in the contemporary professional life, new technologies allow the accomplishment of professional tasks not only in different locations, but also theoretical and scientifical journal 84 no. 2 / 2019 outside the official working time. the pressure to meet increasingly tight deadlines, as well as the need to be permanently available to clients, has led to the extension of the professional life towards the family [25, zaharia v., gavriloaiei s., 2015]. a study from the russian federation also highlighted this issue by pointing out that mobile devices allow employees to respond quickly, constantly accessing and sharing information, contributing to increased employee productivity and encouraging cooperation between them. but the continuous participation in the professional life, in the long term, reduces the productivity because workers do not have time to rest and to recover and the professional exhaustion increases. thus appeared the "right to disconnect", giving the person the opportunity to "disconnect" from the workplace, from the use of electronic communications, such as emails and messages after the end of the work day [22, son kh. i., chernova zh., 2018]. data from studies also show that, in general, young people are those who face difficulties in balancing work and family. therefore, young people represent the group of employees who most likely seems to be affected by the work-family conflict. many of them being newly married and early in their professional careers have not yet developed the skills to effectively balance the tasks associated with these roles the parental/marital and the professional one. this fact indicates the need for more organizational support in this regard [18, platon c., 2016]. researchers believe that the conflict between work and family has become an important area of research for organizations because of the negative effect these conflicts have on the behavior of employees at work and at home [11, grandey a., cropanzano r., 1999; 20, st-amour n. ș.a., 2007; 24, youngcourt s., huffman a., 2005]. the consequences of the conflict between work and family life are complex, reflecting on: the employee: high level of stress, physical and emotional health problems (depression, anxiety), risky behaviors (alcohol consumption), increased marital stress, low career satisfaction, tension, irritability, frustration, vulnerability, insecurity and poor work performance. the employee's children: behavioral and emotional problems. at the organizational level: low fidelity to the company, increased interest in changing the job as a "method" for resolving conflicts, increasing staff turnover, absenteeism and high costs generated by health problems of employees/medical leave, low productivity [2, 2019]. the problems of reconciling family and professional life contribute to the emergence of the "delayed maternity" phenomenon, meaning that more women employed on the labor market are less likely to become mothers at a younger age. conciliation problems are factors that prevent couples from having many children, thus contributing to lower birth rates. a low birth rate has a negative influence on economic growth as well as on the stability of social protection systems. international comparisons indicate a positive correlation between an efficient labor market presence and higher fertility (for example in france and sweden) [8, 2004]. recent studies in the field have also focused on studying the wage penalty for motherhood due to the difficulties of reconciling family and professional life. it has been established that the motherhood penalty increases with the number of children, especially young children [10, daviesa r., gae¨lle p., 2005; 17, pilar casal m., barham b., 2013]. this penalty arises because with the birth of children women interrupt their work experience. another reason is that maternity and household tasks can leave women exhausted while working, resulting in decreased productivity. some women might give up work with higher wages in favor of family-friendly jobs that allow them to work fewer hours and spend more time at home. some researchers anderson, binder, and krause (2002) have established that the motherhood penalty for lower-skilled workers is minimal, while mothers with higher education have a 15% wage penalty [17, pilar casal m., barham b., 2013]. other studies have also shown that mothers with higher education receive a "fine" of 1.5 times higher than those without higher education. the difference in remuneration for mothers with higher education appears after the birth of the first child, while among the women without education, starting from the second birth [4, biryukova s., makarentseva a., 2017]. the theoretical-methodological basis consists of: conflict theory that emphasizes the dynamic nature of family life and the role of external factors (economy, politics, social structure); development theory, according to which the family goes through several stages of the family life cycle and the gender theory, according to which the conceptions and ideas regarding the family life of men are different from those of women, etc. in the republic of moldova, this subject remains insufficiently exploited. in the 2015-2018 period the project "interferences between professional work and private life. intercultural aspects, local experiences economy and sociology 85 no. 2 / 2019 and intervention strategies” was carried out within the faculty of psychology of the moldova state university. within this project, various aspects related to the relationship between the professional and family life of employees in the republic of moldova were investigated, but from a psychological perspective. methodology of the study. the article is elaborated on the basis of the qualitative sociological study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities" carried out during august october 2018 by the center for demographic research, nier, during which 20 sociological interviews were conducted with mothers with children of preschool age (up to 6 years). also, the article is based on the data of the quantitative study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities" (1047 questionnaires with mothers with preschool children), carried out during february-march 2019. it was opted to conduct the study only in chisinau for several reasons: persistence of demographic problems: increase in the age of women at childbirth; intensification of the phenomenon of postponement of childbirth; lack of quality preschool education services, especially for young children; in most families both partners are employed; increase in the number of single parent families; concentration of young population, young families, families with young children; extensive employment opportunities; high level of education of the female population. the purpose of the study consisted in analyzing the particularities of reconciling the family life and the professional life of mothers with preschool children, in highlighting the difficulties they face in reintegrating into the labour market after child care leave and in determining the factors that contributes to facilitating the process of balancing family and professional life. the general hypothesis of the study refers to the fact that the relationship between the professional and family life of mothers with preschool children is conditioned by the accessibility of the preschool education services, economic and psychosocial resources of the family, individual resources (education) and the flexibility of work programs. characteristics of the sample. out of the total sample, 30% of mothers had children up to 3 years old and the rest between 3 and 7 years. depending on the level of training 9.1% of the respondents had gymnasium and secondary school education, 17.9% post-secondary education (college, professional school), 5.6% lyceum and 67.3% higher education. depending on the occupational status 59.7% were employees; private entrepreneur 3.6%, self-employed 6.6%, unemployed 11.2%, 1.2% working abroad and 17.9% were on maternity leave or child care leave. out of the total number of those employed, 45.3% worked in the public sector, 50.2% in the private sector and the rest in other sectors (4.5%). research results. the interviewed mothers showed a high level of motivation to be employed. 45.2% wanted/want to start working again before the child is 3 years old. but the main reason for returning to the labor market is the need to earn money (fig. 1). "if there would be someone to support us, i would stay up to 3 years at home with the child. i am sorry for him, when i have to go to work, he comes to me and does not want to leave me.” figure 1. reasons for early return to work after child care leave (in %) source: the sociological study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities". 66,5 15,3 11,3 5,1 1,7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 the need to make money necessity to be active or have activity/ self-realization / to have feelings of necessity to return at work the request from employer to return earlier at work the fear of losing job the communication’s need theoretical and scientifical journal 86 no. 2 / 2019 the study allowed us to elaborate the typology of mothers with preschool children, according to their professional and family orientations, and their characterization: mothers who wish to combine the job with the raising of children (65%) – most of them had the status of employees; work in the public sector; the activity stage is reduced; most of them return to work after child care leave. they appreciate that harmoniously combine work with family life. it was pointed out that most of them consider that they like to work, but do not want a too demanding professional activity. for mothers in this category, work is just a source of income for life. mothers who intend to make a career but do not forget about children (21.3%) – usually have a higher education level; hold management positions; most of them are active in the private sector of the economy; the duration of child care leave is short. they appeal to particular child care services. they admit that are more dedicated to the field of activity than family life. they benefit from the necessary support/baking of the husband when returning to work. they are very satisfied with the work they are hired for. mothers who intend to be housewifes and take care of children (13.7%) – most of them have gymnasium, secondary education; have three and more children; most of them occupy execution functions; predominantly work in the fields of manufacturing and trade; a significant number of them work up to 6 hours a day. more than half of them changed their jobs after child care leave. the husband, in most cases, is the main earner of the family and he is also the one who most often makes the household decisions. they admit that they are more dedicated to children and more satisfied with their parenting, to the detriment of their careers. totally 35.4% of those who returned to work changed their jobs, mainly those who worked in the private sector of the economy changed their jobs. this aspect highlights the persistence of increased insecurity in private companies. thus, some women intentionally choose / give preference to the public sector to benefit from maternity leave, child care and medical leave. "i know that the rights to motherhood are not really respected in private companies, that is why i decided to work in public sector, where the rights of mothers with children are respected. my colleagues made it clear to me that if i want to have children in the future, then it would be better to leave from here. i have found that you cannot be a mother in private company in our country”. "i better work in a state institution with a lower salary, but to be respected, to feel as human, and for individuals with more money being considered a money-making machine, which, if used, can be thrown away". figure 2. causes of job change (in %) source: the sociological study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities" 9,4 19,7 3,9 5,5 3,9 19,7 23,6 10,7 20,1 4 9,4 9,4 19,5 11,4 10 10 5 0 5 10 20 10,1 19,3 4,1 7,1 6,8 18,9 17,2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 the position was occupied by another person because of the low salary i have committed to a higher position at the present job the liquidation/dissolution of the former job lack of opportunities for professional growth at the old job because of the inconvenient working schedule something else public private another domain total economy and sociology 87 no. 2 / 2019 the data in fig. 2 emphasizes some problems that are attested in the private environment, such as occupying the position previously held by other persons contrary to the legal framework that ensures the retention of the job upon the return from the child care leave and the lack of prospects for professional growth. in some international studies [5, buelens m., broeck h., 2007] it was also found that public sector workers face fewer conflicts between personal and professional life than private sector workers and also have a higher level of satisfaction with family life and more free time. the results of the study also revealed the problem of the limited possibilities of part-time job for mothers. thus, in some situations mothers wanted to integrate into the labour market from an earlier age of the child, opting for a part-time work, but in the absence of this possibility, they have to work full time or not at all. "initially, i wanted to work part-time, that is 4 hours, but i was not allowed. i was told either full time, or not at all”. if we interpret the decision to work part-time as a voluntary one, then the increased possibility of benefiting from such a work arrangement can be viewed as an opportunity for women to earn income from an activity that can be combined with the fulfillment of the other responsibilities [16, leovardis c., nicolaescu c., 2011]. in some situations, part-time work helps women to balance their family and professional lives. in some studies it has been established that women who work part time report a higher level of happiness at home and a greater satisfaction with their children than women who work full time [14, higgins c. et al., 2000]. to evaluate the indicators of family-work and work-family conflict, a literature review was performed using the scales proposed by turkish researchers gürcü erdamar, hüsne demirel, which were translated and adapted. each question was answered as never (1), rare (2), occasional (3), often (4) and always (5). given that the family is more important than the work, the value of the family-work conflict is higher than that of the work-family conflict, constituing 25.4 and 21.92 respectively. table 1 the value of work-family conflict ͞x s 1. because i have many tasks and responsibilities at work, i cannot spend enough time with my family 2,66 1,086 2. physical and mental fatigue at work makes it difficult to fulfill my responsibilities at home 2,72 1,043 3. workplace fatigue decreases my patience with family members 2,38 1,073 4. work assignments make me feel tired while fulfilling my responsibilities at home 2,66 1,052 5. i can't use the time for homework because of my service. i always postpone doing the housework 2,32 1,087 6. my professional life diminishes my efforts necessary to fulfill my household responsibilities 2,29 1,083 7. i continue to think at home about a problem i faced in the workplace 2,63 1,119 8. a problem at work makes me stressed and nervous at home 2,44 1,067 9. my duties and responsibilities in the workplace are a priority of my family life 1,82 1,158 total 21,92 9,76 source: the sociological study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities" according to the study, mothers with higher level of education experienced a greater conflict between work and family than those without higher education. this can be explained by the fact that people with higher education work in jobs characterized by greater responsibility. theoretical and scientifical journal 88 no. 2 / 2019 table 2 the value of the family-work conflict ͞x s 1. my responsibilities at home diminish the time and effort i should devote to professional activity 2,01 0,970 2. because i have too many responsibilities at home, i do not put the work at the forefront 2,22 1,075 3. my responsibilities at home create difficulties in my professional life 1,83 0,952 4. family troubles and problems negatively affect my professional life 1,81 0,960 5. a family problem makes me feel stressed and nervous at work 2,07 1,006 6. at work i continue to think of a problem i faced at home 2,42 1,019 7. certain situations i encounter at home (guests, illness, a child problem) make my work difficult 2,43 0,994 8. domestic tasks reduce the time i have for sleep, which is essential for my service 2,55 1,140 9. because of my family responsibilities, i always go to work tired 2,22 1,027 10. due to my responsibilities in the family, i cannot participate in certain activities related to my professional activity (meeting, dinner, etc.). 2,28 1,128 11. my family duties and responsibilities are above my professional life. 3,56 1,395 total 25,4 11,66 source: the sociological study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities". the data in fig. 3 shows that the value of conflict for both work-family and family-work components is higher for mothers who have children up to 3 years old than for mothers who have children from 3 to 7 years. researcher ahmad a. emphasized that work-family conflicts need to be investigated according to the stage of the family life cycle. young children are dependent on parents, especially mothers, which explains this direct correlation [1, ahmad a., 2008]. figure 3. the value of family-work and work-family conflict depending on the age of children (in %) source: the sociological study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities". 26,4 25,43 23,37 21,88 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 presence of children up to 3 years presence of children from 3 to 7 years the value of work-family conflict the value of family-work conflict economy and sociology 89 no. 2 / 2019 the results of the author's study showed that women with young children from chisinau municipality face the reluctance and inability of employers to offer them any conditions that would allow them to harmoniously combine family and professional life. companies in the republic of moldova are still reluctant to create flexible work schedules. this is argued by the fact that 46.6% of interviewed mothers mentioned that they face the need to have a flexible working schedule (fig. 4). the short and medium term flexibility is expected to solve the problems of episodic childhood diseases of children. "i feel very much the need to have a more flexible program, so that i can pay more attention and time to the care of the children. at my workplace i cannot benefit from such luxury in any form. we have very strict requirements. probably, i should have another job." however, the flexibility of the work program is decisive in choosing a specific job, because the employees do not neglect their responsibilities towards the family. figure 4. situations faced by mothers in the workplace, (the total of answers always and often in %) source: the sociological study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities". one third of the respondents acknowledged that they were in the situation when they stayed late at work overtime. "there are certain periods, specific to the type of activity, due to which the work program lasts up to 10-12 hours daily." "i stay overtime sometimes because of the lack of staff and large workload." 31.1% of surveyed mothers emphasized that they encountered at the workplace the employer's dissatisfaction with taking medical leave to care for their sick child. concrete cases in which mothers face the impossibility of being on medical leave were presented within conducted interviews. "i could not take any medical leave, from my colleagues i understood that if i would take at least one i would not work anymore." the total number of days, during the last 3 months, in which the respondents were absent from work, being on child care leave constituted 4099. 279 mothers stated that they were on medical leave, on average, a mother was on medical leave for 14 days. 49.5% of the respondents mentioned that it happened in the last 3 months them to work, although they had to take medical leave due to the child's health. 27,2 28 29,9 30,5 31,1 33,7 46,6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 lack of possibility to go in business / job trips the technological working process at the job place cannot be interrupted impossibility to mack changes of working hours in unpredictable situations lack of opportunity to take vacation leave when needed / when you want the employer's negative attitude regarding medical leave the necessity to stay over working hours program impossibility to have a needed flexible work schedule theoretical and scientifical journal 90 no. 2 / 2019 another issue related to the provision of medical leave refers to the impossibility of mothers who work part-time to benefit in addition to the salary and the monthly allowance for child care to take this leave in case the child becomes ill. "i cannot take medical leave because i am on child care leave and also i work 7 hours. when the child becomes ill, the husband takes his medical leave so that we do not lose money.” the data from the qualitative study also highlighted the existence of impediments at work that make it difficult to create a harmonious balance between work and family: the need to complete various registers, reports for the purpose of providing permission slip. "right now i am going with the girl to do investigations. it is necessary to write in a special register and to ask permission from 3 heads every time. this is very unpleasant, it is the health of the child, i do not go to clinics just for a walk.” restrictions of the legal framework. "if an accident occurs during working hours, even if it is not inside the company, it is considered an accident at work. we are responsible for the life and safety of our employees”. compliance with hygiene and safety rules in the situation work from home. "we have to make sure the room is bright, the cables are ok. but we will not go and check in his house.” insufficient legal regulation of the issues related to offering flexible programs and work from home. "the law does not allow, but also does not prohibit work from home." these problems reveal that many organizations have very limited provisions regarding the reconciliation of family and professional life. thus, there is still a long way to go for them to be considered "family friendly". child care services represent a determining factor in ensuring the balance between work and child care. most children in preschool institutions are between 3 to 6 years old, this denotes the lack of the segment of services for the care of children under the age of 3 years. only 56.1% of the respondents were confident that they can leave the small child in the care of someone, knowing that everything will be fine when they return from work. the educational system in chisinau is insufficiently developed to comprise all children of preschool age. due to the under-financing of the preschool institutions, absolutely all the respondents acknowledged that within the institution attended by the child/children, financial sources are collected for repairs, endowment with furniture, household items, additional payment of personnel and other necessities. due to the lack of confidence in the quality of preschool educational services, due to the shortage of well-trained specialists some parents access private educational institutions, but due to the high price, their number is limited. the activity of babysitters/nannies is not sufficiently regulated in the republic of moldova, this is currently possible under the patent holder regime, and the obtaining of patent does not require compliance with a certain set of conditions that must be verified by the state when giving the patent (criminal record, studies, medical certificate, etc.). 36.9% of interviewed mothers mentioned that a preschool child suffer if his mother works. the success of the mother in the implementation of the career has a socializing significance for the children, teaching them to treat a person with freedom of choice. on the other hand, lack of maternal attention can affect their personal development, complicating the relationship with the mother [3, berezovskaya t., 2012]. other studies have also shown that longer periods of maternity leave are generally associated with better health outcomes for mother and child [21, skinner n. chapman j., 2013]. in other research it is emphasized that the work activity of the mother has a different effect on the children: if the work brings satisfaction and the feeling of self-realization for the mother, the children not only do not suffer, but receive certain benefits (communication becomes more significant). on the contrary, if for mothers the work is nothing more than a means of earning for living, then being involved in different responsibilities, roles, overload, her dissatisfaction can create feelings of guilt, tension [9, konovalova a.m., 2011]. progress towards a more equal distribution of child care and household tasks between women and men is slow, and the division of household and child care activities between men and women is very limited. "he says so, i'm a man, i make money. you are a mother, you stay at home and take care of children.” "i do everything related to the house and kids, but the father makes money." at 70.6% of economy and sociology 91 no. 2 / 2019 respondents the husband agreed with the idea of returning to work, at 65% the husband gave her the necessary help to return to work, and at 12.5% of respondents the husband considers that the work negatively affects the fulfillment of family responsibilities. this denotes the predominance of traditional values, according to which women should give priority to family responsibilities, while men should play the role of breadwinner in the family. the data in fig. 5 reveals that the daily division of family activities remains asymmetrical and very traditional, women being still responsible mainly for child care and household tasks. this is due to the cultural environment in which the family roles and obligations are defined. the tendency persist for women to take full responsibility of the household and the child, even working full time. but the husband's support moderates the relationship between work stress and the work-family conflict, so it is still necessary to promote the "responsible fatherhood" model [7, chernova zh., 2012], that is, increasing the participation of men in the care and education of children. figure 5. parents involvement in the education and care of children (in %) source: the sociological study "parents between the need to work and family responsibilities". conclusions finding a work-personal life balance for mothers is an essential issue for the well-being of children, as both poverty and lack of attention can harm the development of the child. a good balance reduces parental stress and therefore benefits both the parent-child relationship and the parentparent relationship. lack of nursery and early education services, inadequate conditions in some kindergartens make it difficult to combine professional and parental roles for mothers with young children. some women choose to leave the labor market for a longer period of time than to face working conditions that do not allow them to balance their professional and family responsibilities. thus, mothers are in 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 clean/wash clothes prepare food stay at home with sick children take the kids to the doctor feed young children wash toddlers clean the house wash dishes read the evening story to the children prepare the children for bedtime or watch for them… take kids to the kindergarten get kids out of kindergarten talk with children about their problems play or spend time with children, have fun together somebody else mom and dad equally always mother always farther theoretical and scientifical journal 92 no. 2 / 2019 a position to pay even a "fine" for motherhood. the rigidity of the legal framework determines the impossibility of the employers to offer them some conditions that would allow them to harmoniously combine the family life with the professional one – flexible work programs, work from home, etc. mothers involved in the labor market face a conflict of role and in the absence of some facilities, the strategy for combining family life and work is to reduce fertility or delay it, meaning more women in the labor market are less likely to become mothers at a younger age. references 1. ahmad a. job, family and individual factors as predictors of work-family conflict. 2008. 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[accesat 13.11.2019]. disponibil: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290447085_flexibilitatea_granitelor_muncafamilie_in_context_romanesc article history received 12 november 2019 accepted 06 december 2019 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=2ahukewizj9_njixmahxo66qkhdxabi4qfjacegqiaxac&url=http%3a%2f%2fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2fviewdoc%2fdownload%3fdoi%3d10.1.1.820.4599%26rep%3drep1%26type%3dpdf&usg=aovvaw3kqmebwmx-dqlwew7qcng_ https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/assets/documents/hilda-bibliography/other-publications/2014/skinner_etal_work_life_balance.pdf https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/assets/documents/hilda-bibliography/other-publications/2014/skinner_etal_work_life_balance.pdf https://monitoringjournal.ru/index.php/monitoring/article/view/551 http://www.ohpedu.ro/articole/scala-conflict-munca-familie-analiza-proprietatilor-psihometrice-ale-versiunii-in-limba-romana-4/ http://www.ohpedu.ro/articole/scala-conflict-munca-familie-analiza-proprietatilor-psihometrice-ale-versiunii-in-limba-romana-4/ http://www.apcj.org/documents/1_2_policies.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290447085_flexibilitatea_granitelor_munca-familie_in_context_romanesc https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290447085_flexibilitatea_granitelor_munca-familie_in_context_romanesc how to reduce the risk economy and sociology 99 june no. 1/2021 social cohesion in the republic of moldova: realities and perspectives victor mocanu1, phd, associate professor, institute of legal, political and sociological research, republic of moldova ludmila malcoci2, phd, , habilitate, professor, institute of legal, political and sociological research, republic of moldova angela mocanu3, phd, associate professor, institute of legal, political and sociological research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-09 jel classification: a13, a14, c31, h80, i3, i31 udc::316.7(478) abstract strengthening social cohesion is one of the main directions of the moldova 2030 strategy. at the same time, the association agreement between the republic of moldova and the eu stipulates social inclusion, poverty reduction, social cohesion, sustainable development and improving the quality of life as social policy priorities. this article analyzes the theoretical approaches of the concept of social cohesion and presents the results of sociological research on social cohesion in the republic of moldova conducted in 2020. the sample includes 1202 respondents and is representative by place of residence (urban / rural), sex, age, level of education. the qualitative study included interviews with 90 experts, representatives of local public authorities, ngos and the private sector and 3 focus groups. the research was carried out within the project "training and strengthening social cohesion in the republic of moldova in the context of rapprochement with the european union". as key aspects of social cohesion were analyzed: self-identification of the degree of belonging of moldovan citizens to the republic of moldova, perceptions of solidarity with other citizens, social trust, participation and inclusion of citizens in political, social and economic processes. the research results showed that the level of cohesion and social solidarity in the republic of moldova is quite low. the covid-19 pandemic has deepened social distancing, uncertainty about the future, poverty and the marginalization of certain groups of the population and has further contributed to lowering the level of social cohesion. key words: social cohesion, social inclusion, social trust, solidarity. consolidarea coeziunii sociale este una dintre direcțiile principale ale strategiei moldova 2030. în același timp, acordul de asociere dintre republica moldova și ue stipulează incluziunea socială, reducerea sărăciei,coeziunea socială, dezvoltarea durabilă și îmbunătățirea calității vieții drept priorități ale politicilor sociale. acest articol analizează abordările teoretice ale conceptului de coeziune socială și prezintă rezultatele cercetărilor sociologice privind coeziunea socială în republica moldova realizate în anul 2020. eșantionul include 1202 de respondenți și este reprezentativ în funcție de locul de reședință (urban / rural), sex, vârstă, nivel de educație. studiul calitativ a cuprins interviuri cu 90 de experți, reprezentanți ai autorităților publice locale, ongurilor și sectorului privat și 3 focus grupuri. cercetările au fost realizate în cadrul proiectului „formarea și consolidarea coeziunii sociale în republica moldova în contextul apropierii cu uniunea europeană”. ca aspecte cheie ale coeziunii sociale au fost analizate: autoidentificarea gradului de apartenență a cetățenilor moldoveni cu statul republica moldova, percepțiile privind solidaritatea față de ceilalți cetățeni, încrederea socială, participarea și incluziunea cetățenilor în procesele politice, sociale și economice din țară. rezultatele cercetării au arătat că nivelul de coeziune și solidaritate socială în republica moldova este destul de redus. pandemia covid-19 a aprofundat distanțarea socială, neîncredere în ziua de mâine, sărăcia și marginalizarea anumitor grupuri de populație și a contribuit și mai mult la scăderea nivelului de coeziune socială. cuvinte-cheie: coeziune socială, incluziune socială, încredere socială, solidaritate. 1 id orcid 0000-0001-8769-6730 e-mail atitudinemd@gmail.com 2 id orcid 0000-0002-7249-595_ e-mail lmalcoci@keystonehumanservices.org 3 id orcid 0000-0002-9996-7478 e-mail aiasinsky@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8769-6730 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7249-595x https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9996-7478 theoretical and scientifical journal 100 june no. 1/2021 укрепление социальной сплоченности является одним из основных направлений стратегии «молдова 2030». в то же время соглашение об ассоциации между республикой молдова и ес предусматривает повышение социальной интеграции, сокращение бедности, укрепление социальной сплоченности, устойчивое развитие и повышение качества жизни как основные приоритеты социальной политики. в статье анализируются теоретические подходы в определении концепции социальной сплоченности и представлены результаты социологических исследований социальной сплоченности в республике молдова, проведенных в 2020 году. выборка включает 1202 респондента и репрезентативна в зависимости от места жительства (город / село), пола, возраста и уровня образования респондентов. качественное исследование включало интервью с 90 экспертами, представителями местных органов власти, нпо и частного сектора, а также с 3 фокус-группами. исследования проводились в рамках проекта «формирование и укрепление социальной сплоченности в республике молдова в контексте сближения с европейским союзом». в качестве ключевых аспектов социальной сплоченности были проанализированы: самоопределение степени принадлежности молдавских граждан к государству республика молдова, восприятие солидарности с другими гражданами, социальное доверие, участие и включенность в политические, социальные и экономические процессы. результаты исследования показали, что уровень сплоченности и социальной солидарности в республике молдова довольно низкий. пандемия covid-19 усилила социальное дистанцирование, неуверенность в завтрашнем дне, бедность и маргинализацию определенных групп населения, а также способствовала снижению уровня социальной сплоченности. ключевые слова: социальная сплоченность, социальная интеграция, социальное доверие, солидарность. introduction in 2000, social cohesion became one of the priorities set by the european commission in terms of social policy at european union level. strengthening social cohesion is one of the main directions of the moldova 2030 strategy. the association agreement between the republic of moldova and the eu also stipulates social inclusion, poverty reduction, social cohesion, sustainable development and improving the quality of life as priorities of social policy. in this article we aim to study social cohesion in the republic of moldova from the perspective of self-assessing the degree of moldovan citizens' belonging to the republic of moldova, perceptions of solidarity with other citizens, social trust, participation and inclusion of citizens in the country's political, social and economic processes. theoretical approaches regarding the social cohesion concept literature does not present a single and well-defined notion of social cohesion, which is interpreted according to the discipline of study. in the dictionary of sociology, the notion of cohesion is defined from a social perspective, denotes the characteristics of this phenomenon and highlights the positive and negative sides of the phenomenon from the perspectives of the individual and the group the development of the social cohesion concept was based on sociological and psychological research with reference to the dynamics of social groups. we mention the research of crowd psychology by gustav le bon (1896), which determines the influence of the crowd on the behavior of the individual; the studies of emil durkheim (1897) on the phenomenon of suicide, according to which it is concluded that the suicide rate in various communities depends on their degree of solidarity; the experimental research of iacob moreno (1934) on the dynamics of the development of relationships in groups and their influence on the behavior of individuals; leon festinger's studies that led to the formalization of the theory of group cohesion, according to which cohesion is a key phenomenon of the continuity of membership, the cement that unites the members of a group and maintains the relations between them. considerable contribution to the development of the notion of social cohesion has also been made by research on social networks (jenson et al., 1998). in her work on mapping social cohesion, jane jenson defines social cohesion as a continuous process of developing a human community with shared values, shared challenges and equal opportunities, which is based on trust, hope and reciprocity. at the same time, the researcher identifies five basic dimensions for measuring social cohesion, namely: belonging/isolation, economy and sociology 101 june no. 1/2021 inclusion/exclusion, participation/non-involvement (dimeglio et al., 2012). these dimensions allow the measurement of the phenomenon of social cohesion from several perspectives on a scale from total rejection to total inclusion. thus, for example, group membership can be measured from total isolation to total inclusion of respondents at the level of groups, communities, society. in the case of inclusion/exclusion, we can measure the phenomenon from total social exclusion to inclusion in certain areas or even the inclusion of social groups at the community and society level. paul bernardt develops jenson's approach. he proposes measuring social cohesion from two perspectives: social spheres (economic, political, social, cultural) and social relations (at the level of attitudes and behaviors). bernardt proposes 6 dimensions for measuring social cohesion: insertion/exclusion, legitimation/non-legitimation, recognition/rejection, equality/inequality, participation/passivity, affiliation/isolation. bernardt considers social cohesion as a quasi-concept, a hybrid mental construction developed by political games, which is based on the analysis of data in certain contexts. this construction is natural to remain indefinite in order to be adapted to the needs of political action (dimeglio et al., 2012). thus, the multidimensional analysis of social cohesion based on socio-psychological approaches at the level of social spheres and at the level of attitudes and behaviors is introduced. at the same time, a new aspect is introduced for the research of equality/inequality, ensuring comprehensive measurement. andy green and jan germen janmaat analyze social cohesion from the perspective of social institutions, attitudes and behaviors. thus, they mention that social cohesion includes certain societal characteristics related to attitudes and behaviors as well as certain social institutions and mechanisms. with reference to social institutions and mechanisms, they include the following: risk-sharing and social protection mechanisms (state based on social welfare); redistribution mechanisms (such as taxes) to ensure equal and fair opportunities; and conflict resolution mechanisms (green and janmaat, 2011). thus, social cohesion is defined more from the perspective of common values and ensuring social solidarity based on equity, equality, tolerance and behavior in accordance with the law. social cohesion is analyzed more from the perspective of respecting living together in order to ensure people's rights and maintain society in a sustainable way. o’conner defines social cohesion from the perspective of values, differences, associations and networks, adding the category of infrastructure here. he considers that social cohesion covers three categories of issues: values, identity, culture that define a certain community; differences and divisions: inequalities and inequities, cultural diversity, geographical divisions; associations and networks, infrastructure (noll, 2009). according to chan and others, social cohesion is a state that refers to the interactions between members of society vertically and horizontally. these interactions are based on attitudes and norms that include trust, a sense of belonging and a willingness to participate and help, as well as their behavioral manifestations. they propose a definition based more on the need to operationalize the phenomenon and consider that members of a community show cohesion if three conditions are met cumulatively: 1. they trust, help and cooperate with other members of the community; 2. they share a common identity or a sense of belonging to the community; 3. the subjective feelings made explicit in (1) and (2) are objectively manifested in their behavior (chan et al., 2006). in the context of measuring stability and reconciliation in countries with stagnant conflict, the score index (www.scoreforpeace.org) is used, which measures two preconditions for peace and society: social cohesion between groups and reconciliation. according to him, social cohesion is measured on the basis of three indicators: 1) trust in institutions, 2) human security and 3) satisfaction with life. reconciliation is measured on the basis of indicators: negative stereotypes, anxiety within the group, social distance, social dangers, active discrimination and positive feelings. measuring social cohesion in pandemic situations requires new dimensions and indicators that should be researched. of particular interest in this context are studies of social cohesion in exceptional situations caused by natural or social calamities, which show that people show a greater degree of cooperation when they are in survival situations (calo-blanco et al., 2017) and that social cohesion contributes to reducing the perception of risk and fear, while trust in social support increases the degree of involvement in problem solving (babcicky and seebauer, 2020). http://www.scoreforpeace.org/ theoretical and scientifical journal 102 june no. 1/2021 in the republic of moldova, the phenomenon of social cohesion has been researched from several perspectives. in one of the first works (negură et al., f.a.), the methodological framework for assessing social exclusion in moldova was developed and it was concluded that there is an intrinsic link between social exclusion and social cohesion, in a cohesive society, the level of exclusion social being lower and vice versa. the research is based on the definition of social cohesion proposed by the council of europe according to which it means the capacity of society to ensure the well-being of all its members by minimizing economic, social, political disparities and avoiding the marginalization of people. social cohesion would therefore require the ability of all to participate in economic life, benefiting from opportunities for development and social welfare. the analysis of social cohesion from the quality of life perspective identified five vulnerable groups in the republic of moldova: people with disabilities, children and families with many children, people with low incomes, youth, elderly and families of migrant workers. researchers negură p., mocanu v., potoroacă m. analyze social cohesion from the perspective of social quality theory. social cohesion is presented as an expression of the nature of social relations based on belonging, solidarity, trust, shared values and norms. the research results demonstrate the low degree of trust of the population in institutions and peers. although the spirit of self-help exists in moldovan society, social solidarity is also appreciated by respondents at a low level. at the same time, the sense of belonging of the respondents to their country and culture is quite high (negură et al., f.a.). main components of social cohesion social cohesion is a multifaceted phenomenon that depends on certain social contexts and is very difficult to measure with the same categorical apparatus. most research on social cohesion, in particular that carried out by the oecd, the council of europe and the european commission, uses the following as its basic dimensions: social welfare, social capital and social mobility. social welfare is analyzed as a complex phenomenon, in a comprehensive logical framework, which is based on three aspects: material living conditions, quality of life and sustainability, or conditions that must be respected to preserve social welfare for other generations. social welfare is analyzed both at the objective (concrete level of material living conditions) and subjective level, or at the level of perceptions, feelings, such as the degree of well-being satisfaction or the degree of security/insecurity. in the case of material conditions, researchers usually analyze the following dimensions: 1) income and consumption, 2) work and wages, 3) housing. quality of life includes the following indicators: 1) health, 2) work and rest, 3) education and skills, 4) civic engagement and governance, 5) social connections, 6) personal security, 7) subjective well-being. health is very important in terms of value, but it is also an important factor and a condition for employment. equally, employment is important from the perspective of personal selfaffirmation and family well-being. social connections are important for personal security and for the social valorization of individuals. an environment where people feel personally secure is very important for a beautiful and safe life. so practically all these dimensions together are important for ensuring social wellbeing and a high quality of life. measuring social welfare in oecd countries has highlighted certain trends in social cohesion, as follows. income inequality continues to be very high in some countries, with high incomes mostly concentrated in the upper strata. there are many health disparities in social groups with different income levels, due in large part to different lifestyles. women have a longer average life expectancy than men, but they report a lower level of health and a higher level of disability. the distribution of family obligations continues to be gender inequitable, so men work more hours at work and women work more hours at home without being paid. the elderly, the poor and the low-educated have far fewer social support networks than other population groups. people living in big cities and men are more likely to be victims of crime than other population groups. poor, well-educated people and young people are less involved in politics than other population groups. these differences are also very big depending on the country's level of development. thus inequality is higher in underdeveloped countries compared to other countries. the level of development of countries should be considered when measuring social cohesion (oecd, 2011). social capital is the second aspect considered important by researchers for measuring social cohesion. in the literature there are two approaches in measuring social capital: 1) from the perspective of the frequency of relationships and the possibility of obtaining social capital (information, ideas, support) from other individuals and other groups and 2) from the perspective of nature and fence economy and sociology 103 june no. 1/2021 involvement in various civil society networks and organizations. the world bank measures social capital through 6 dimensions: 1) groups and networks (involves the degree of belonging to different groups and networks, including civil society parties and organizations, and the degree of offering/receiving information, ideas, support); 2) trust and solidarity (trust in institutions, neighbors and foreigners); 3) collective action and cooperation (if it happens in the community and how the members of the community cooperate in solving common community problems). this dimension also includes perceptions of collective action. in turn, the oecd has identified several perspectives from which social capital can be measured: 1) personal relationships (network structure and associated behaviors to maintain relationships), 2) support from social networks (emotional, financial, material, intellectual resources to who have access to network members), 3) civic involvement (activities and networks through which people contribute to community life, 4) trust and cooperative norms (trust, social norms and shared values). social mobility is the third dimension most frequently involved in measuring social cohesion. from the oecd perspective, social mobility is perceived as intergenerational mobility between parents and children or grandchildren and as intra-generational mobility during the life of individuals. intergenerational mobility analyzes the status of the individual from the perspective of income, occupation, health, education comparative with his parents. intra-generational mobility analyzes how incomes and occupational status of individuals have changed over a lifetime. so mobility shows how the quality of life, occupational status, education, health, etc. have changed during the life of individuals and compared to their parents. high social mobility means that regardless of status, everyone has opportunities and chances to progress in their career or life (oecd, 2018). research methodology the results of the quantitative and qualitative sociological investigations carried out within the “formation and consolidation of social cohesion in the republic of moldova in the context of the approach to the european union” project in 2020 were used as empirical material. the applied research tools were: the analysis of statistical data presented by the nbs, sociological survey administered by face-to-face and online interviews on a sample of 1202 people. the general population research sample consisted of 1202 randomly selected people. the sample is representative depending on the environment of residence, sex, age, level of education. thus, depending on the environment of residence, 59% of people from rural areas and 41% from people from urban areas were surveyed. depending on gender, 52% women and 48% men were surveyed. depending on age, the respondents are divided as follows: ages 18-24 13%, ages 25-29 14%, ages 30-39 20 %, ages 40-49 24%, ages 50-64 18%, ages 65+ 11%. depending on the studies, respondents may be distributed as follows: primary/secondary education 17%, secondary/high school 24%, professional technical/vocational studies 34%, higher/postgraduate 30%. the qualitative research included the interview with 90 experts, representatives of local public authorities, ngos and the private sector and was conducted between may 8-26, 2020, while the quantitative one between july 18 and august 23, 2020 prior to conducting basic field research, social cohesion research indicators were piloted into three focus groups to see to what extent they fit the situation in moldova and to identify possible new indicators specific to the social context in our country. thus, a total of 31 people participated in focus groups. in these focus groups we focused in particular on the following aspects: social solidarity, manifestation of cohesion at community level, belonging to social groups, inclusion and participation, trust in institutions and individuals. main results solidarity and social cohesion. most focus group participants understand the notion of solidarity as follows: be united, help each other, be equal, listen to each other. although most of them understand the importance of solidarity and social cohesion, about 2/3 of the participants mentioned that in their locality the degree of solidarity and social cohesion is quite low. each in his own nest, his own yard. we're not very friendly like that woman, age 50, rural. theoretical and scientifical journal 104 june no. 1/2021 most often people help each other only if they are related. most people lack initiative. if it is necessary to solve a community problem, for example to clean a well, people only organize if the initiative comes from the mayor or local councilmen. in the conditions when someone would need help, then he would address first of all the relatives, then he would address the mayor's office. focus group participants also agreed that the richer people are, the less supportive and needy they are. if they needed help, they would address poorer people, since they are more open. less wealthy people are kinder. they have the same hardships and understand more easily. the rich live in another world and don't understand each other woman, 30. when asked to what extent they would help strangers, the vast majority mentioned that they would rather be vigilant and that they would rather get to know the person than let them into the house or help them. some mentioned that they had cases when they received strangers in the yard, served them with food and wine, but preferred that they not enter their house. i can give you an example. a year or two ago, a stranger came on a motorcycle and came into my yard. i see he speaks german. he points at my house ... i say no, i won't let him in... yes, i received him, gave him, i gave him a bottle of wine. he explained to me that he wanted to pitch his tent. yes i will help you. but i won't let you in the house. i apologize, but... i mean, i was scared. it depends on the help needed. otherwise, if something happened to him, i think i would help him, even if he's a foreigner man, 45, rural. many people mentioned that the degree of solidarity and cohesion is low in their communities because people are divided, most often, by political interest. namely, politicians, from the focus group participants' perspective, made the local populations argue, hate each other. society is dispersed by parties, by interests ... in our community, and throughout the republic. it was the goal of politicians to disperse them. once the party is gone, the main expert changes, no matter how good he is. it doesn't matter. another one comes, even if he is much weaker, more uneducated than the other one. this, unfortunately, is the truth, man, age 40, urban. others mentioned that people are more divided on ethnic grounds and that until the citizens of this country, regardless of whether they are moldovans, romanians, russians, etc., understand that they must respect the country's people, its history and language we cannot hope for cohesion and solidarity. for some of the participants, the union with romania would be a solution. moldovan society is divided only because of our rulers who, for some reason, lean out towards the russians who pay them 800 thousand euros per month to maintain their parties, and of course they will try as much as possible to destroy this country and turn it into a bridgehead for the russians. so we should unite, take them down, form a provisional government that would negotiate for the union with romania. i think this would be the only way out of the swamp we are in. man, 55, rural. belonging to social groups. the vast majority of participants in focus groups mentioned that they are proud of their locality, even if the infrastructure is not very developed, they have many good people, the land is very fertile and they have a lot of greenery around. if they go abroad, they are proud to be from the republic of moldova. there is one thing that they regret, namely that although the country is beautiful, the leaders at the helm of the country do not know how to lead and do not think about the country and the people who live here, but more about their own good. no matter how good it would be elsewhere, it's not good here. our country is always different. we simply do not have a leadership, which should lead us properly. if we were to have good leadership, we would be supportive. i stayed in canada for a month this summer and saw very beautiful things, but i still missed this place woman, aged 60, urban. some mentioned that they have children abroad and they also say that they are from the republic of moldova because moldovans are much more appreciated than other peoples in other countries for their kindness and diligence. let's put it this way, i have children who went abroad, for them it is more proud to say that you are from the republic of moldova, than from romania. because they don't really love romanians, they don't like them abroad, they consider them thieves. man, 60, rural i was in germany for a while and saw a similar situation. the attitude towards moldovans is more positive than towards other nationalities. man, age 45, rural. when asked about what qualities must a good citizen of the republic of moldova possess, the participants in the focus groups mentioned the following: cult, smart, honest, not to be a thief, not to be corrupt, to love their country and not to criticize it, to love the people and to care for the people, to have moral values, to be altruistic, to actively participate in community activities, to be people with verticality. economy and sociology 105 june no. 1/2021 trust in people and institutions. when asked if they generally trust people, the absolute majority mentioned that they would rather not trust them, because people are different and they change very easily depending on the circumstances. now people are two-faced. even if we take the elections ... people go after everyone, they are unpredictable. man can do anything, what he does not expect he can do. they go with the flow, they agree with everyone. man is not specific. for example, he has an option, he doesn't have his option, anyone can fool him. a good part is like that. woman, 45, rural. respondents show the greatest confidence in their family members, colleagues and neighbors. with reference to social institutions, the participants in the focus groups mentioned that they have more trust in the church and the mayor's office, and less trust in the government, parliament, police, trade unions. church is the place where persons alleviate their needs, problems, which they have with society, with family. not trusting today's politics, they find comfort there. second, where do people go to share their trouble? local council. his hen got stolen, he goes to the local council, he was insulted, has no wood, he goes to the local council. not trusting others, people limit themselves to family, church, local council hall that's my opinion. man, 60, rural. thus, with reference to the church and its role in the community, respondents mentioned that it has an educational role, of consolidating the society, and the priest must be a model of behavior for the village. although they trust the church, some participants in focus groups mentioned that in some localities the church has become involved in politics, which is not a good thing at all. the church became politically involved; this is the worst thing that may happen in a state. the church must have its place. it belongs to the spiritual, not the material. man, 60, urban. other respondents mentioned that the behaviors of priests often leave much to be desired: they do business at church instead of helping poor people, they are not interested in the problems of the parishioners. it is for these reasons that some people have lost faith in the church today. i want to tell you that a priest should know more about the villagers. my mother is 89 and she goes to church every sunday, if she doesn't go there for two or three sundays, if i were a priest, i would come and ask her why did she not come for two or three days? maybe you're sick, maybe you need something ... woman, 50, rural -these fees, these candles. well, if i went to church with a candle from home, he doesn't have the right to force me to buy a candle from church, that's not a place of business. you don't go there to do business; you go there to pray. man, 50, urban when asked if they trust the army, some respondents gave a positive answer, because the army has an educational purpose, while others said that in general moldova should not have an army, because it is a small country that tries to assure everyone that it is neutral. in addition, many young people avoid the army they rather go to colleges, universities, or even work abroad to escape the army. youth from vulnerable families, who have nowhere to go, usually enlist in the army. with reference to the police, most mentioned that they do not trust because the police do not do their job, often do not register applications, it is very difficult in rural areas to find a police officer when you need one. before, the police did their job. when there was a district policeman in every local council. now we don't have a local policeman. folks come once a month to write a complaint, they don't discuss, they take the requests and hide them, not all of them are registered. man, 60, rural. the unions, in the vision of the participants in the focus groups, lost their responsibilities, they are more involved at indication of government officials, or in the best case in the organization of some festive events. for these reasons, the vast majority of people do not trust this institution and would never turn to trade unions for solutions. what does an agricultural union do? it unites farmers, defends rights, goes to the ministry of agriculture, goes to the marketplaces, raises the masses ... in our unions there are a bunch of people throwing some rubles back for a tea, a celebration. before, no employee could be fired until the union agreed. regardless, the president of the country may say anything ... the union is a neutral body, they meet, they put things on the table after the elections, not their personal interests... this is how this was seen. they give notice. and even when bosses exceed their duties, for which they also find a suitable article, he goes to court and get defense. that is the mission of a union. they go to court and get defense... we thought the leader had exceeded his duties. man, 56, rural focus groups participants mentioned they have the least trust in parliament and government. these structures do not fulfill their mission, they do not take care of the country and the people. people have chronic distrust in leadership. many of those in charge were taught by our teachers. they're from our theoretical and scientifical journal 106 june no. 1/2021 country. the education process begins in the family; it begins in school. when they gather, they discuss less about the interest of the state with personal, group interests predominating. it means we won't get over this handicap soon. we did not have political traditions, political parties in the true sense of the word, for the political elite to be chiseled. man, 57, urban. with reference to trust in parties, focus group participants mentioned that they do not trust a party either, because they do not have political values and goals, party members frequently change from one party to another for money. people also mentioned that a new political class is needed to make changes at the societal level. diversity and tolerance. people in communities have a rather low spirit of tolerance, especially towards muslims and refugees from other countries. they consider that the republic of moldova still invests too much in refugees. many of them mentioned that although they know that in other countries refugees are helped by the population, they personally are not sure they would help refugees. especially when a man of another faith comes to our society, he first of all cannot integrate. no one will tolerate him imposing his rules of the game. i don't think our moldovans will give in and let him do his will. that is my opinion. -man, 47, rural we still have enough refugees, and they are paid and have pardons in all respects. the native population does not have such privileges. i know the place where refugees live in moldova, and they have so many conditions there that an ordinary man who works every day does not have and neither does he have the rights that refugees have. man, 56, urban. perspectives for the future. when asked about the prospects of their community, most respondents were very pessimistic, noting that they have the example of other localities, where people migrate en-masse and that if the situation in the country remains the same, all villages, including theirs, will become deserted. some mentioned that they still hope for more educated moldovans to return from abroad and develop the country's economy and localities, as the italians, or other peoples, once did. the moldovans will return in any case. like with italy, for example, in 1959 they went to america, came back with capital, opened hotels, and things went pretty well. man, 47, rural. research on social cohesion in social welfare, social capital and social mobility dimensions showed that the level of cohesion and social solidarity in moldova is quite low. the covid-19 pandemic deepened social distancing, fears, poverty and marginalization of certain population groups and further contributed to lowering the level of social cohesion. social cohesion from the social welfare standpoint the socio-economic security of moldova's population is quite low. extreme and absolute poverty levels, although in slight decline in recent years, remain quite high. the impoverishment of the population is fueled by limited jobs, a high consumer price index and high rate of inflation. poverty continues to affect the rural population the most, large families and many children, children and the elderly. although the average monthly income of the population continued to increase, in the context of rising consumer prices and inflation, they continue to be insufficient to ensure a decent living of more than 2/3 of the country's population. access to various quality community services (water, sewerage, district heating, etc.) is low, especially in rural areas, low-income families, families with many children and elderly families. in the context of the pandemic, the socio-economic situation of marginalized families has worsened further, due to the loss of jobs and the emergence of new expenses protective materials against covid or even medicine in cases of illness; the need to provide children with computers or internet to learn online; increased housing maintenance costs due to the transfer of the workplace to the home, etc. at the same time the very low involvement of the authorities in supporting these families is worth mentioning. in the context of the above, more than half of the country's population is not satisfied with their lives in general. the share of dissatisfied people is higher in rural areas, in age groups 50+, in the environment of people with low education, those not employed, people with low incomes. social cohesion and social capital the analysis of the respondents' degree of participation in politics and community life shows that the vast majority of the population is practically not involved in the community political or social life. election participation is the only political and civic activity involving over 2/3 of the population. the share of more active people in political and social life is higher among those who work in the public sector, are economy and sociology 107 june no. 1/2021 party or ngo members. the fiscal morale of the population is rather at the level of attitudes and beliefs regarding payment of salary taxes, and less in relation to informal payments, about 1/3 of those surveyed having offered informal payments in the last 12 months. in general, the population has a high level of trust only in family members, friends, co-workers and neighbors; the level of trust in institutions remains quite low. compared to different institutions, the population has more trust in the church, the media, the mayor's office and the presidency and less trust in justice, the prosecutor's office, political parties, parliament and government. the level of trust in most people, as well as in strangers is very low, people considering that they have to be very vigilant with them. regarding media, respondents have more trust in the media in the eu and romania and less trust in the media of moldova and russia. the frequency of media consumption is quite high among the population, the most important source of information being considered television, and the most credible the internet. the analysis of the identity and group membership of the population shows that most respondents are proud of being citizens of moldova, although many of them do not associate this feeling with the greater possibility of assertion, a perfect place for raising children, or for living and working and about 60% are oriented to leave the country in the near future. this feeling of pride is rather explained by the unconditional love for the place where they were born, raised and educated and of belonging to the nation. most respondents continue to identify themselves as residents of their city/village and a citizen of moldova, and less so as a citizen of europe or a citizen of the planet. at the same time, a large part of the population identifies itself with the ethnic group to which it belongs and only 16% consider themselves simply citizens of moldova. the analysis of the social distance between respondents and different marginalized groups of population or ethnic groups highlighted the fact that the smallest social distance is between respondents and moldovans, romanians, russians, who are perceived as close social groups, who may be part of family members, colleagues, neighbors. the social distance index is moderate and shows tolerance towards the following groups: jews, people with physical and mental disabilities, roma, immigrants, hiv + persons, persons of color, former detainees, muslims, homeless persons. respondents acknowledge that these groups may live in their community, or even in the country, but also want them less as family members, neighbors, colleagues, friends. the index of social distance between respondents and drug users and homosexuals denotes isolation; thus, the respondents would like these groups to leave the country. social cohesion from the social mobility perspective social groups with high social status are in all cases characterized by the following: high level of education, high share of urban population, high occupational status, and vice versa groups with low social status include people with low education, from rural areas, with low occupational status. education is one of the basic factors leading to intra-generational social mobility. the higher the level of education, the more likely the possibility to advance on the social scale. and vice-versa, a low level of education decreases opportunities to increase social status. in the case of extreme groups (with the highest and lowest status) inter-generational occupational mobility is the highest: with a descending or ascending specific. in the case of groups of highly and medium qualified specialists, the share of those who maintained the occupational status of their fathers was 56% and 67%. with regard to the standard of living of the respondents compared to that of the parents, in the groups with higher social status the share of respondents who mentioned that they have a better/much better life compared to their parents gradually increases and respectively the share of those who consider that they have a worse/much worse life than their parents. the same trend was observed in the perspective of children's living standards: in the groups with higher social status, the share of respondents who believe that their children will have a better life than them and vice-versa is higher. priority directions to consolidate social cohesion increasing the population's social well-being, and in particular disadvantaged groups (rural persons, persons with disabilities, youth, the elderly), through sustainable economic development, supporting small agricultural producers, creating fair employment opportunities, equitable distribution of income and the reduction of economic inequalities, the vocational guidance of youth in line with their theoretical and scientifical journal 108 june no. 1/2021 interests and the needs of the labor market, increasing people's access to physical infrastructure, public utilities and living conditions. developing the sense of social responsibility of entrepreneurs to create inclusive work environments in line with the needs of employees. develop incentives for employers, including taxation, to invest more in creating good working conditions, including those adapted to the needs of people with disabilities, and in developing human resources. ensuring equitable and free access to education services for all children, including disadvantaged groups children with disabilities, from socio-economically vulnerable families, from rural areas, roma, minor parents, providing the necessary support according to individual needs and ensuring a friendly, protective and inclusive school environment. focusing the education system on person-centered education in order to develop such skills and competencies as critical and creative thinking, collaboration, flexibility, information technology, entrepreneurship, which will help them make decisions, solve problems and communicate effectively. ensuring the right of the population, especially marginalized groups, to quality social assistance and protection by strengthening capacity and developing innovative tools for data collection and benefit allocation, development of the network of care, rehabilitation, retraining and quality provision depending on needs. ensuring equitable access to quality health services, including for marginalized groups, by developing an efficient and flexible health insurance system, access to efficient, quality and affordable basic medicines and a high level of information to the public about their right to health; and medical services from which he may benefit, including on the basis of medical insurance. development and implementation of development policies at local and national level from the perspective of addressing human rights by making public decisions based on evidence of their impact on the population, especially marginalized groups, involvement of the population in decision making, ensuring a clear, efficient and inclusive implementation mechanism and monitoring decisions taken. ensuring safe, inclusive, non-discriminatory and equitable community and social environments for all population groups, including the marginalized, by integrating the principles of equality and nondiscrimination into all development policies and practices, involving marginalized groups in decisionmaking and monitoring policy implementation, implementation of communication campaigns focused on accepting differences and diversity and promoting a tolerant attitude. developing the spirit of cohesion and social solidarity at local and national level by stimulating and ensuring a governance in partnership with the citizens and assuming concrete responsibilities for community development. developing effective partnerships between authorities and civil society for the social inclusion of vulnerable groups. references 1. babcicky, p., & seebauer, s. (2020). collective efficacy and natural hazards: differing roles of social cohesion and task-specific efficacy in shaping risk and coping beliefs. journal of risk research, 23(6), 695–712. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2019.1628096 2. calo-blanco, a., kovářík, j., mengel, f., & romero, j. g. (2017). natural disasters and indicators of social cohesion. plos one, 12(6), e0176885. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0176885 3. chan, j., to, h.-p., & chan, e. (2006). reconsidering social cohesion: developing a definition and analytical framework for empirical research. social indicators research, 75(2), 273–302. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-005-2118-1 4. dimeglio, i., janmaat, j. g., & méhaut, p. (2012). social cohesion and the labour market: societal regimes of civic attitudes and labour market regimes. social indicators research, 111. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-012-0032-x 5. green, a., & janmaat, j. g. (2011). regimes of social cohesion. palgrave macmillan uk. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230308633 6. jenson, j., réseaux canadiens de recherche en politiques publiques, canada, & développement des ressources humaines canada. (1998). les contours de la cohésion sociale: l’état de la recherche au canada. réseaux canadiens de recherche en politiques publiques. economy and sociology 109 june no. 1/2021 7. negură, p., mocanu, v., & potoroacă, m. (f.a.). coeziunea socială în republica moldova din perspectiva apartenenței, încrederii și solidarității sociale (2016–2018). 27. 8. noll, h.-h. (2009, decembrie 4). indicators for social cohesion in the european union. 9. organisation for economic cooperation and development. (2011). how’s life?: measuring wellbeing. oecd. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264121164-en 10. organisation for economic cooperation and development. (2018). a broken social elevator? how to promote social mobility. oecd. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264301085en article history received 18 january 2021 accepted 26 may 2021 theoretical and scientifical journal 64 no. 1 / 2020 digital marketing in the practice of small and medium enterprises in the republic of moldova valeri gagauz1, phd student, academy of economic studies of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-06 jel classification: q3, m, m0, m3, m31 udc: 339.138:004.738.5 abstract the use of modern marketing strategies for small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) is an important factor that can contribute to strengthening entrepreneurial activity, qualitative structural changes to smes, and ensuring business sustainability and stability. the digital revolution and technologies open up new opportunities for the business sector, improving the quality of communication with customers, while digital marketing (dm) is an important tool that can ensure the competitiveness and effectiveness of actions taken to promote products and services. this article presents the results of a qualitative study of the perception and practice of smes in the field of dm conducted by the author in 2019. twenty entrepreneurs – sme owners in chisinau were interviewed. the analysis also includes a case study of the bravo-motors company practice. the theoretical and conceptual framework of the study is comprised of modern marketing theory, resourcebased view approach (wernerelt b.) and theory of dynamic capabilities (teece et al.). the results of the study showed that smes do not pay due attention to digitalization of business processes, data collection and analysis, optimization of work processes and monitoring of key indicators. the role and importance of developing a marketing strategy is in many cases underestimated, and marketing activities are limited to the use of individual marketing elements only. there is a low level of competence of entrepreneurs in the field of marketing, especially regarding modern marketing tactics and strategies, as well as the lack of an integrated approach to the strategy of promotion and development of the company. keywords: digital marketing, small and medium interprises. utilizarea strategiilor moderne de marketing de întreprinderile mici și mijlocii (imm) prezintă un factor important care poate contribui la consolidarea activității de antreprenoriat, la modificări structurale calitative ale imm-urilor, la durabilitatea și stabilitatea afacerii. revoluția digitală și tehnologia oferă oportunități noi pentru sectorul de antreprenoriat prin îmbunătățirea calității de comunicare cu clienții, iar marketingul digital (md) este un instrument important ce poate asigura creșterea competitivității și eficienții acțiunilor întreprinse pentru promovarea produselor și serviciilor. în acest articol sunt prezentate rezultatele cercetării calitative privind percepțiile și practicile imm în domeniul md, realizat de către autor în anul 2019. au fost intervievați 20 de antreprenori – proprietari ai imm-urilor cu sediul în mun.chișinău. analiza include, de asemenea, un studiu de caz al practicii companiei bravo-motors srl. baza teoretico-conceptuală a cercetării au constituit teoria contemporană a marketingului, abordarea bazată pe resurse (resource-based view, wernerelt b.), teoria capacităților dinamice (theory of dynamic capabilities, teece et al.). rezultatele cercetării au demonstrat că imm nu acordă o atenție cuvenită digitalizării proceselor de afaceri, colectării și analizei datelor, optimizării proceselor de muncă și controlului indicatorilor cheie. rolul și importanța dezvoltării unei strategii de marketing în multe cazuri sunt subestimate, activitățile de marketing limitându-se la utilizarea doar a unor elemente de marketing. s-a constatat un nivel scăzut de competență a antreprenorilor în domeniul marketingului, în special privind tacticile și strategiile de marketing modern, precum și lipsa unei abordări integrate a strategiei de promovare și dezvoltare a companiei. cuvinte-cheie: marketing digital, întreprinderi mici și mijlocii. использование современных маркетинговых стратегий для малых и средних предприятий (мсп) является важным фактором, способствующим укреплению предпринимательской 1 © valeri gagauz, gagauzvf@gmail.com economy and sociology 65 no. 1 / 2020 активности, качественным структурным изменениям мсп, обеспечению устойчивости и стабильности бизнеса. цифровая революция и технологии открывают новые возможности для предпринимательского сектора, улучшая качество связи с клиентами, а диджитал-маркетинг (дм) является важным инструментом, который может обеспечить конкурентоспособность и эффективность действий, предпринимаемых для продвижения продукции и услуг. в данной статье представлены результаты качественного исследования восприятия и практики мсп в области дм, проведенного автором в 2019 году. было проинтервьюировано 20 предпринимателей владельцев мсп в г. кишиневе. исследование также включает анализ практики компании bravo-motors. теоретикоконцептуальной основой исследования послужили современная теория маркетинга, ресурсный подход (resource-based view, wernerelt b.), теория динамических способностей (theory of dynamic capabilities, teece et al.). результаты исследования показали, что мсп не уделяют должного внимания цифровизации бизнес-процессов, сбору и анализу данных, оптимизации рабочих процессов и контролю ключевых показателей. роль и важность разработки маркетинговой стратегии во многих случаях недооцениваются, а маркетинговая деятельность ограничивается использованием лишь отдельных маркетинговых элементов. наблюдается низкий уровень компетентности предпринимателей в области маркетинга, особенно касающихся современных маркетинговых тактик и стратегий, а также отсутствие комплексного подхода в стратегии продвижения и развития компании. ключевые слова: диджитал-маркетинг, малые и средние предприятия. research problem although the development strategy of small and medium-sized enterprises sector for the years 20122020 aim to move from economic development model based on consumption, to a new one based on export, investment and innovation-oriented paradigm, of the political desire for european integration and of the global economic trends, so far, this has not been achieved at the expected level. despite the overall creation of a more favorable environment for the entrepreneurial activity, the specific aspects regarding the capacity of the smes themselves to develop and strengthen their managerial and marketing activity enjoy very little of the policy makers attention. in recent years, the competition among smes in the republic of moldova has increased considerably, this fact, to a large extent, being determined by the small retail market, as well as reduced opportunities to enter the international market. the statistics on smes show a considerable number of companies that stop their activity due to bankruptcy (bns 2019). from the perspective of the development of smes in the republic of moldova, in the short term, we can see the existence of multiple problems related to the insufficiency of the financial sources and qualified staff, fluctuation of the cadres, accounting and taxation, administrative barriers, etc. however, in the long term, the priority belongs to the requirements of the market, namely to strengthen the competitive capacities of small and medium-sized businesses, to integrate into the european space by using efficient marketing tools, especially the digital one. the existing challenges show that an important objective for smes is to strengthen their competitiveness. in this context, the selection of marketing methods and techniques for improving the degree of competitiveness and further development of sme constitute an important objective of their activity. marketing development may contribute to the entrepreneurship activity`s consolidation, qualitative structural changes of the smes, as well as the sustainability and stability of the business. the digital revolution and technology offer important opportunities for the entrepreneurship sector by improving the quality of communication with customers, being the premise for increasing the competitiveness and efficiency of the actions taken to promote products and services. people can follow the offers anywhere, anytime, in a flexible and individualized context that is permanently accessible. currently, digital technologies are a determinative for the business development and competitiveness of the company, and existing research shows that digital technology determines the growth of smes, through innovation and management capacity (foroudi et al. 2017). in addition, digital marketing supports activities to increase the number of clients and to maintain them as permanent clients (александровский, казанькова 2015). thus, dm allows companies to get closer to potential customers (kannan & li 2017). dm is a general term for the marketing of products and services, through digital channels for attracting and retaining customers, being customized and measurable through digital technologies, including web, etheoretical and scientifical journal 66 no. 1 / 2020 mail, databases, mobile and digital phones. dm contribute to achieve marketing objectives through applying digital technologies and media (chaffey 2016). dm is “an adaptive, technology-enabled process by which firms collaborate with customers and partners to jointly create, communicate, deliver, and sustain value for all stakeholders” (kannan and hongshuang 2017). often there is no distinction between dm and internet marketing, although they differ significantly. dm incorporates internet marketing, but is not limited to the internet. for example, internet marketing includes seo, sem, smm, web browsing, advertisement context and other channels that are available to the user only on the internet, while dm includes all of the above plus advertising and promotion through any digital medium outside the network. so, dm involves digital communication that is done both online and offline. obviously, the advertisement in newspapers, flyers, classic tv and panels do not have the tangency with digital marketing. a panel with a qr code with a link to a web site is already the dm. the main tools of the dm are: digital television and online radio; advertising in online messengers, applications and games; seo and sem – search engine marketing; sms and mms delivery; smm – social media marketing – promotion in social networks; contextual advertising, banner ads and tizzer ads; messengers on the official site (jivosite, smartsupp); email marketing; referral marketing; vbm – video broadcast marketing; influences collaboration with opinion leaders. research gap and positioning most of researchers agreed that marketing plays a vital role in smes success, and helps them stay competitive, influence of marketing as a function of business needs to increase (wymbs 2011). entrepreneurial marketing uses networking to build and support marketing activity is based on the use and development of marketing management competencies and tries to be innovative where it can (gilmore 2011). nowadays sme couldn`t afford to avoid an online presence. digital technology increases the ability to respond positively to customer needs and, at the same time, improves customer-side operations. it has been illustrated that the use of dm brings important benefits to companies, despite a small area of market. dm focuses on the consumers and businesses and increase efficiencies by reducing costs (gilmore and carson, 2018; александровский с.в., казанькова 2015). the marketing development of smes is based on the life cycle of the company, four stages in its evolution being highlighted: initiating the marketing activity; reactive sales; diy (do it yourself) marketing approach and proactive integrated marketing (gilmore 2011). in the initial phase, the marketing activity is reduced to the determination of the optimal functional characteristics of the product, the price and the delivery conditions. at this stage, clients are usually close to the owner of the company people or the persons involved in the business. increasing the number of new customers and sales in the second stage forces the company to apply formalized marketing procedures and to expand its range of marketing tools used to inform new customers about the company's offer. in the third stage, there is a growing need to pay special attention to marketing and to increase the budget for the marketing activity. the particularity of marketing at this stage will be completely determined by the attitude of the business owner towards marketing. therefore, success, as well as failure, will depend entirely on the business owner (gilmore, carson 2018). finally, if the company continues to grow (fourth stage of development), it will be necessary to use proactive integrated marketing or professional marketing. the study of marketing in new smes has shown that they are based on marketing concepts to a very small extent, they consider the needs and desires of consumers and their subsequent satisfaction compared to other types of companies (gilmore 2011). many highly successful enterprises have never had a formal marketing strategy. instead, they stumble on their business formula and evolve it to suit market conditions. in many cases, smes are change oriented only because their business and existing market is small and so they have to grow to survive or remain profitable, meaning that change is unavoidable. sme owner-manager business decision making can be both opportunistic and reactive to environmental changes and is often incremental rather than risk oriented. t (gilmore and carson 2018). previous research has shown that smes don’t use the full potential of the new digital tools and are therefore not deriving the benefits from the opportunities they provide (taiminen and heikki 2015). although dm is a cost-effective, creating awareness and purchase intentions, many companies still find it challenging adopting dm as a marketing strategy (iankova et al. 2019; andersson and wikström 2017; alves et al. 2016; siamagka et al. 2015). dm is still a quite new and technically difficult area to understand and implementation can be challenging for companies that lack resources or knowledge. economy and sociology 67 no. 1 / 2020 researches conducted in post-transitional countries show that most smes are characterized by "spontaneous" or "intuitive" marketing, proposing as a possible solution the development of marketing consulting services. the process to engage small business owners’ in marketing activities is unplanned, informal, and employed with a bottom-up approach. moreover, the implementation of different marketing activities is reactive in nature due to the dynamic business environment. experts argue that customer awareness contributes to increased marketing efficiency, customer loyalty and cost optimization. an individual approach helps cross-communication, communication, and marketing effectiveness analysis (александровский, казанькова 2015; сидорчук 2016; халиков 2018). the study realized in romania emphasizes the importance of online presence and use of dm. in base of a case study are detailed all the steps taken by the smes in the process of assuring an online presence. the study shows wide opportunities for extracting, manipulation and analysis of data using digital platforms and dm (pistol et al 2016). in the republic of moldova, dm is insufficiently studied in smes. existing research shows that majority of smes do not carry out any marketing activities (magenta consulting 2017). in many cases, this situation is determined by misunderstanding the importance of marketing by the owners-managers of smes, considering that not all of them possess entrepreneurial capacities and a good part of them are "selfemployed". based on the above, we conclude that despite the various research interest, the knowledge about the ways in which smes actually undertake dm activities and what type of problems they face implementing dm remain limited. theoretical background the research of sme practices in the field of digital marketing is based on several theoreticalconceptual approaches regarding the concept of marketing, the role of marketing in managerial activity. the modern theory of marketing represents marketing activity as aimed at achieving the goals of the enterprise and ensuring its competitiveness. in conditions when it becomes impossible for the manager to accurately calculate the results of his activities, the marketing complex, with its own set of controlled variables, factors and tools, is used by the enterprise as a protective, responsive reaction to the created economic conditions of uncertainty and risk. market orientations conceptual approach emphasizes that the behavior of the firm revolves around that of the market. it is a set of behaviors and processes related to a continuous assessment environment (matsuno et al. 2002). a resource-based view (rbv) is a strategic management theory that helps assess how a firm’s resources affect its financial performance. the resource-based view suggests that each organization possesses a distinctive set of resources and capabilities that help explain the variance in firm performance over time. the rbv focuses on internal strategic resources that align with the company’s strategic intent and serve as the basis of competitive advantage. the underlying assumption of the rbv is that resources and capabilities possessed by firms are heterogeneous and imperfectly transferable (wernerelt 1984). theory of dynamic capabilities. dynamic capabilities theory examines a firm’s ability to achieve and sustain a competitive advantage in a changing environment through reconfiguration and integration of its resources and capabilities (teece at al 1997). dct assumes that organizations with greater dynamic capabilities will outperform firms with fewer dynamic capabilities. the dynamic capabilities can lead to better organizational performance; however, companies achieve competitive advantage, not through the existence of dynamic capabilities but through their application and usage (nedzinskas et al. 2013). porpoise of the study analysis of sme perceptions and practices in the field of digital marketing, highlighting strong and weak parties, elaborating proposals to improve the situation. data and methods. in order to study the knowledge, attitudes and practices of smes in the use of digital marketing in 2019, a qualitative sociological study was conducted, based on the semi-formalized interview method. twenty entrepreneurs – owners of smes based in chisinau with the number of workers from 5 to 15 were interviewed; the level of education of entrepreneurs: high; domain of activities: sales, software development, services, agriculture, advertising areas of activity. a case study was also carried out based on the bravo-motors small company (number of employees 6 persons, duration of activity – 10 years), which specializes in car repairs and sales of auto parts. theoretical and scientifical journal 68 no. 1 / 2020 the main research questions were: what is the level of digitalization of smes? what are the main marketing strategies of entrepreneurs? what digital marketing tools are used by entrepreneurs? a database on the microsoft access platform was developed for data collection and analysis. this approach also presents a variant of digitizing the process, offering the possibility of registering the data directly into the database and further analysis. main results currently smes need information technologies for efficient functioning and continuous development. thus, an important component of the smes’ activity is the need to store and exchange information, automate accounting and other business processes. performing these tasks leads to optimization and minimization of the company’s transaction costs. a unique information system is required to integrate business applications into company`s management, which includes: 1) end-to-end automation of all the main business processes of a trading company 2) inventory automation and warehouse operations, direct data entry from online cash registers 3) inventory management automation, supply chains, logistics and transport 4) financial management, budgeting automation, financial analytics 5) personnel performance management automatization 6) customer relationship management automatization 7) cloud office applications and cloud services for work organization of geographically distributed personnel 8) cloud communication services and virtual call centers 9) accounting, tax and statistical accounting automation 10) automation of the exchange of electronic documents and data with contractors and supervisory authorities. the digitalization of processes within the sme presents an important premise for the development and implementation of the dm. the results of the research show that only 3 respondents out of 20 of those interviewed appreciate their level of digitalization of smes at a high level and another 4 at medium level. some of the entrepreneurs could not evaluate the situation in the field of their company’s digitalization (8 persons). 4 respondents consider that the level of digitalization of the company is at a low level. it is remarkable that the proportion of entrepreneurs who evaluated the level of digitalization of the enterprise as low and those who could not answer this question coincides with the proportion of companies that so far carry operational records without the use of specialized software such as crm or erp (figure 1). fig. 1. self-assessment of the company's digitalization degree (pers.) source: own qualitative study, 2019. high level; 3 medium level; 5low level; 4 hard to answer; 8 have crm; 5 have erp; 2 accounting on paper; 13 economy and sociology 69 no. 1 / 2020 the research results showed that within the studied smes in most cases the marketing is the responsibility of the team members and / or the manager / owner. it means, the managers know best the particularities of the business and their niche activity. this approach of dealing with marketing on their own has both a positive and a negative aspect. on the one hand, any additional activity consumes extra time, respectively, no other important activities are performed. involvement in all activities negatively influences the execution of the main activities as well as the quality of services and products offered by the company. on the other hand, no business can operate without promotion (figure 2). figure 2. staff involved in marketing activities (pers.) source: own qualitative study, 2019. an important aspect of the marketing activity presents the collection, systematization and analysis of the information regarding different aspects of the marketing activity. obviously, most smes in the country do not have the financial resources to carry out or order marketing researches. an important issue arising from these is the ability of smes to analyze available information, collected by themselves, which should be the basis of managerial decisions. respectively, the main sources of information are the internal ones: documents that record the sales and the revenues; customer requests; payment invoices; documents for returning the goods; customer complaints; financial reports etc. the lack or availability of the tools required for data analysis does not always correlate with their use. in the study, the majority of the entrepreneurs stated that they analyze the structure of the customers and the sources of conversions. but after specifying the answers it was found that in most cases it is not about digital analysis, which is, concrete figures, but only estimates based on individual experience. as a result, we can see that a good part of the entrepreneurs do not carry out the necessary analyzes and do not have the necessary tools for this process (figure 3). figure 3. distribution of answers regarding the analysis of customer structure and conversion sources (pers.) source: own qualitative stud, 2019. don't know; 0 head; 5 team members; 5 team members and outsource; 7 outsource; 3 2 711 yes no would like to, but they don't have enough tools theoretical and scientifical journal 70 no. 1 / 2020 the biggest problem faced by smes in 2018 was the perception of marketing tactics and contemporary trends in promoting products and services. at the same time, there is a concern about maintaining customers and attracting them repeatedly to use the products / services provided by companies. according to the self-assessments of the respondents, the smes in which they operate did not take the marketing seriously (figure 4). figure 4. marketing problems that entrepreneurs face (pers.) source: own qualitative study, 2019. most of the studied companies have their own websites (2/3). this fact shows us that entrepreneurs understand the importance of their presence in the web and having their own independent platform in internet space. however, most of them do not systematically promote websites and they remain invisible to potential consumers/customers. any business requires promotion but unpromoted websites remain invisible for potential customers and are thus useless. therefore, this digital marketing tool can be considered as not being used effectively and does not exercise the function of attracting customers and increasing profit. to get higher search engine rankings websites need to be promoted using sef, seo and sem technologies. in combination with relevant and unique content with a friendly interface, such a site can in the short term be ranked in the search results page list. search engine optimization (seo) is the process of making a website rank for desirable keywords in order to bring in search traffic. seo targets the factors search engines use to rank pages, including: site technical factors such as html titles, html tags, keywords, links, image alt text, website organization (everything from the sitemap to any redirects) and other factors help search engines determine what the site is about; content quality and quantity; reputation: if your domain ranks well, and has links to other respected domains, it’s easier to make individual pages rank; local factors (small businesses can rank higher in local searches. seo helps search engines recognize a website as a local business). however, sef, seo and sem services are very expensive and decisions on such expenses must be made correctly. the promotion of the websites of companies of different sizes does not differ. so, promoting a website for a small company will cost as much as it does for a large company. in the internet space all the sites are equal in competitiveness, the inequality only appears in the technical performance and the level of preparation for sef and seo. the budget of small businesses can’t compare with the budgets of large companies and sometimes occupies a fairly large share of the sme profit. so, even if online becomes very attractive for entrepreneurs, several regional characteristics of our country must be taken into account. case study. for moldova, the main search engine for goods and merchandise for sale and purchase purposes is the 999.md platform. this means that a relevant online business-specific tool 16 8 6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 perception of marketing tactics and trends maintaining and attracting customers repeatedly very few were concerned with marketing economy and sociology 71 no. 1 / 2020 must be chosen. for example, during a period in the republic of moldova there were top seo projects and several entrepreneurs invested their time and money in developing online commerce, which ultimately did not redeem themselves. for example, the bravo-motors company invested 1000 euros and over 2500 working hours for the development of its own online trading platform. in the first 12 months of promotion, the company managed to appear on the top positions on the page with the google search engine results on high frequency search requests as "tires" and "car batteries", but this fact did not positively influence the sales volume of the company. on the categories indicated above. this situation changed only once, when in 2014 the 999.md platform did not function normally for 2 weeks and the traffic on the company website and the demand for products promoted through the official website of the company increased 5 times. after 999.md started operating as usual, the indicators dropped again. so, presence in what we call „search engines” is important, but it is not always a key to success. thus, for different areas different approaches for offering data for search requests should be applied. presence on digital maps. only half of the interviewed respondents found that their company is present on the digital map. this phenomenon can be explained in two ways either half of the businesses do not have offline offices, or they do not consider the presence on the maps as an important criterion. video content. in recent years there has been a trend of increasing video publications. here we can indicate that smes feel and adapt quickly to market trends and requirements. out of 20 entrepreneurs interviewed 18 declared that they have regular video feeds. thus, modern technologies and powerful electronic devices widely accessible offer the possibility of any individual to deal with filming, news and organizing their own video channel. summarizing the results of the qualitative study, we find that although the entrepreneurs are aware of the importance of the dm and the facilities offered by it, the marketing activities of the sme have a spontaneous, unorganized character and, to a large extent, depend on the skills of the owner in the it and marketing fields. most entrepreneurs do not collect and analyze statistics, they do not have a well-established marketing strategy. at the same time, the study shows that the entrepreneurs the owners of the smes face certain difficulties in incorporating the general marketing methods and procedures, as well as the digital marketing, in the activity of their enterprises. one of the main problems is that the marketing of smes, in most cases, is spontaneous. limited resources and insufficient experience in studying the situation on the market determines that the marketing within the smes is executed by the owner and rarely selects the specialists in the field. for many companies, especially smes at the consolidation stage, making the right marketing decision is very difficult, which influences the rate of revenue growth and the position of the sme on the market (business sustainability). the specificity of marketing, including the digital one, in smes is determined by two main factors. first, by contacting smes, the client is in close action with the manager and business owner, which is not characteristic of large companies. this fact determines the availability of direct feedback from consumers of goods and services, allowing immediate decision-making for the current activity, compared to large companies, where the adoption of most decisions goes through a long negotiation phase. mobility in decision-making when working with consumers has the advantage of small businesses, but the price of incorrect decision is higher. secondly, an important factor that determines the advantage of smes is the ability to constantly change and adapt quickly to new market requirements and conditions. continuous competition for survival, proximity and dependence on buyers and suppliers, the need to constantly think about reducing costs and others does not leave the possibility that a small business is not concerned about its development. as a result, the issue of constant innovation, use and modification of marketing tools when working with consumers becomes a matter of "life and death" for smes. to a large extent this differentiates small businesses from large enterprises, where the implementation of any innovation almost always turns into a long-term process. at the same time, most of the smes in the republic of moldova do not work online now. customers visiting a store or office are more likely to use the "door" or phone to complete a purchase. theoretical and scientifical journal 72 no. 1 / 2020 obviously, digital marketing can help a business grow, find new customers in the un-covered market segments. the research shows that within the strategies that can be approached in the digital environment, it must start from defining the goals of the organization, established according to marketing research to identify the categories of consumers. of a particular importance for the success of the business is the strategic vision of the entrepreneur, the development of the general strategy and the short and long-term marketing strategy, the identification of the specialized niches, etc. conclusions and recommendations the results of the study showed that entrepreneurs do not pay serious attention to digitalization of business processes, data collection and analysis, optimization of work processes and control of key indicators. as a result, management decisions are made intuitively. many entrepreneurs continue to underestimate the role and importance of marketing and are limited to using only individual elements of marketing or, at best, its individual complexes. this means that the adoption and implementation of management decisions is carried out without marketing justification, which jeopardizes the stability and long-term business. underestimation of the importance of marketing activities creates a significant risk, generates unreasonable solutions due to the lack of marketing strategy and resources the owners of smes tend to favor marketing activities that generate immediate or short-term results. smes are generally inclined to use traditional technologies instead of the updated ones, which are also cheap and easy to use, they do not use the full potential of the new digital tools, and so are not deriving benefit from the opportunities they provide. the main problems identified based on the sociological study carried out, in the marketing activities of smes in the republic of moldova are the following: • low level of competence of entrepreneurs in the field of marketing • lack of data collection and analysis tools • the impossibility of a qualitative evaluation of the marketing activities without an analytical database based on statistical data • lack of understanding of modern marketing tactics and strategies • the use of dm technologies in a classical way, without analyzing the efficiency. • lack of quality management. • lack of managing the company's image on the internet. • lack of an integrated approach to the company's promotion and development strategy. some of these problems are quite difficult to solve at the level of individual smes, which indicates the need to make changes to existing forms of support for small and medium-sized businesses at the institutional level. it is worth paying attention to the development of marketing support for smes, especially at the stage of formation. based on the study conducted, some recommendations for improving the marketing are proposed, including the dm strategies within the sme. • smes need to pay greater attention to the digitalization of internal processes and the implementation of software as a basis. • it is necessary to identify the profile of the target audience, the most efficient communication channels and the most promising business segments based on statistical (analytical) data. • increased competence of entrepreneurs in the field of marketing. • the use of dm technologies, taking into account the technical capabilities of collecting the information they offer. • correct targeting, which does not aim at wide coverage, but at a higher quality point and quality. • develop a short-term and long-term strategy to promote the sme, its products and services. • comprehensive and consistent use of different communication channels. • managing the company's image on the internet through feedback. marketing trainings may help small business owners understand the importance of dm and increase their capabilities in using various tools. economy and sociology 73 no. 1 / 2020 references 1. biroul național de statistică. demografia întreprinderilor în republica moldova în anul 2018 [citat 27 martie 2020]. disponibil: https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=ro&idc=168&id=6540 2. chaffey, d. and ellis, c. f. digital marketing. strategy, implementation and practice. 6th edition. pearson, 2016. 728 p. isbn 978-1-292-07761-1. 3. foroudi, p., gupta, s., nazarian, a., & duda, m. digital technology and marketing management capability: 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[citat 12 februarie 2020]. disponibil: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293133762_model_marketingovoj_ekspertnoj_sistemy_v_stru kture_podderzki_malyh_i_srednih_predpriatij_model_marketing_expert_system_in_the_structure_of_small_ and_medium_enterprises 19. halikov, g.v. predprinimatel'skij marketing: perspektivnye issledovanij. v: izvestiâ sankt-peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo èkonomičeskogo universiteta. 2018, no 2 (110), ss.162-168. issn 2311-3464. article history received 27 april 2020 accepted 27 may 2020 https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=ro&idc=168&id=6540 https://doi.org/10.1108/14715201111176426 https://doi.org/10.1080/13215906.2018.1521740 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2018.01.001 http://consulting.md/rom/statistici-si-publicatii/marketing-o-religie-noua-pentru-intreprinderile-din-republica-moldova http://consulting.md/rom/statistici-si-publicatii/marketing-o-religie-noua-pentru-intreprinderile-din-republica-moldova https://doi.org/10.1108/bjm-01-2013-0003 https://doi.org/10.1108/jsbed-05-2013-0073 https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1097-0266(199708)18:7%3c509::aid-smj882%3e3.0.co;2-z http://web.mit.edu/bwerner/www/papers/aresource-basedviewofthefirm.pdf http://web.mit.edu/bwerner/www/papers/aresource-basedviewofthefirm.pdf https://grebennikon.ru/article-85dt.html https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293133762_model_marketingovoj_ekspertnoj_sistemy_v_strukture_podderzki_malyh_i_srednih_predpriatij_model_marketing_expert_system_in_the_structure_of_small_and_medium_enterprises https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293133762_model_marketingovoj_ekspertnoj_sistemy_v_strukture_podderzki_malyh_i_srednih_predpriatij_model_marketing_expert_system_in_the_structure_of_small_and_medium_enterprises https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293133762_model_marketingovoj_ekspertnoj_sistemy_v_strukture_podderzki_malyh_i_srednih_predpriatij_model_marketing_expert_system_in_the_structure_of_small_and_medium_enterprises how to reduce the risk economy and sociology 87 june no. 1/2021 youth attitudes towards gender roles within family olga gagauz1, ph. d. centre for demographic research national institute for economic research, republic of moldova anna chivaciuc2, centre for demographic research national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-08 jel clasification: j13, j19, j16 czu: 330.567.28(4) abstract young people are leaders of change in any society; therefore, studying their attitude towards gender roles in the family is of particular interest in predicting changes in their behaviour and identifying the policy measures needed to achieve sustainable progress in gender equality. the study aimed to research the attitude of youth towards gender roles in the family to determine the influence of the levels of education, gender and other characteristics on gender preferences in relations traditional or egalitarian. it is based on data from a sociological survey of youth in chisinau, conducted in 2019 on a representative sample (n = 506). the theoretical basis of the study was the multiple equilibrium theory (esping-andersen et al., 2013). the study results showed that the perception of young people regarding the essential qualities of men and women is still under the pressure of stereotypes and corresponds to the intermediate balance model characteristic of the transition from traditional roles based on the division of labour to modern egalitarian ones. this circumstance implies an equal division of responsibilities and family roles between women and men. on the one hand, youth tend to an egalitarian type of marriage and family relationships, and on the other, they adhere to traditional views of family roles. although there are some differences in attitudes towards gender roles within the family between natives of chisinau and young people from other localities, they are still not so pronounced. youth with higher education are more likely to prefer an egalitarian distribution of gender roles than youth with a lower level of education. girls more often than boys strive for gender equality in the family. however, in some aspects, such as the responsibility of men for the family's financial support, the importance of the material situation of a partner, they more often express traditional views. keywords: gender role attitudes, youth, sociological survey tinerii sunt lideri ai schimbării în orice societate, prin urmare, studierea atitudinii lor față de rolurile de gen în familie prezintă un interes deosebit din punctul de vedere al prognozării schimbărilor în comportamentul lor, precum și identificării măsurilor politice necesare pentru a obține progrese durabile în domeniul egalității de gen. scopul cercetării constă în studierea atitudinilor tinerilor față de rolurile de gen în familie, determinarea influenței nivelului de educație, genului și altor caracteristici asupra preferințelor în relațiile de gen – tip tradițional sau egalitar. studiul se bazează pe datele dintr-un sondaj sociologic al tinerilor din chișinău, realizat în 2019 pe un eșantion reprezentativ (n = 506). 1 id orcid: 0000-0002-1175-1008 e-mail: gagauzo@inbox.ru 2 id orcid: 0000-0003-1915-3202 e-mail: annachivaciuc@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1175-1008 mailto:gagauzo@inbox.ru mailto:0000-0003-1915-3202 https://e.mail.ru/compose/?mailto=mailto%3aannachivaciuc@gmail.com theoretical and scientifical journal 88 june no. 1/2021 baza teoretică a studiului a constituit teoria echilibrului multiplu (esping-andersen et al., 2013). rezultatele studiului au arătat că percepția tinerilor asupra calităților de bază ale bărbaților și femeilor este încă sub presiunea stereotipurilor și corespunde modelului de echilibru intermediar, caracteristic etapei de tranziție de la rolurile tradiționale la cele egalitare moderne, care presupun o împărțire egală a responsabilităților și rolurilor familiale între femei și bărbați. tinerii, pe de o parte, tind spre un tip egalitar de căsătorie și relații de familie, iar pe de altă parte, ei aderă la viziunile tradiționale ale rolurilor familiale. deși există unele diferențe în atitudinile față de rolurile de gen în familie între originarii din chișinău și tinerii din alte localități, aceștia nu sunt pronunțate. tinerii cu studii superioare mai frecvent preferă o distribuție egalitară a rolurilor de gen comparativ cu tinerii cu un nivel de educație mai scăzut. fetele mai des decât băieții se pronunță pentru egalitatea de gen în familie, deși, în anumite aspecte, cum ar fi responsabilitatea bărbaților pentru sprijinul financiar al familiei, importanța situației materiale a partener, mai des exprimă viziunile tradiționale. cuvinte cheie: atitudini față de rolurile de gen, tineret, studiu sociologic молодые люди являются лидерами изменений в любом обществе, поэтому изучение их отношения к гендерным ролям в семье представляет особый интерес с точки зрения прогнозирования изменений в их поведении, а также определения мер политики, необходимых для достижения устойчивого прогресса в области гендерного равенства. цель исследования заключалась в изучении отношение молодежи к гендерным ролям в семье, определении влияния уровня образования, пола и других характеристик на гендерные предпочтения отношений − традиционных или эгалитарных. исследование основывается на данных социологического опроса молодежи г. кишинева, проведенного в 2019 г. на репрезентативной выборке (n=506). теоретической основой исследования послужила теория множественного равновесия. (esping-andersen et al., 2013). результаты исследования показали, что восприятие молодыми людьми основных качеств мужчин и женщин все еще находится под давлением стереотипов и соответствует промежуточной модели баланса, характерной для этапа перехода от традиционных ролей, основанных на гендерном разделении труда, к современным эгалитарным, предполагающим равное распределение обязанностей и семейных ролей между женщинами и мужчины. молодые люди, с одной стороны, стремятся к эгалитарному типу брака и семейных отношений, а с другой − придерживаются традиционных взглядов на семейные роли. хотя между уроженцами кишинева и молодежью из других населенных пунктов наблюдаются некоторые различия в отношении к гендерным ролям в семье, они все же не столь ярко выражены. молодые люди с высшим образованием, чаще отдают предпочтение эгалитарному распределению гендерных ролей, чем молодые люди с более низким уровнем образования. девушки чаще, чем парни стремятся к гендерному равенству в семье, однако, по некоторым аспектам, таким как ответственность мужчин за финансовое обеспечение семьи, значимость материального положения партнера, чаще выражают традиционные взгляды. ключевые слова: гендерно-ролевые установки, молодежь, социологический опрос introduction despite the progress achieved and the increased attention of decision-makers to gender equality, this goal remains largely unfulfilled in the republic of moldova, as in other countries of the eastern european region. it is now widely recognized that gender equality requires more than equal opportunities and equal access to institutions, the adoption of regulations that ensure equal opportunities for women and men. achieving gender equality requires changing social values and attitudes towards gender roles in both public and private domain. the transformation of the family, as well as the change in the demographic behavior of the population, are largely determined by the change in the status of women and men in society, representations and attitudes towards gender roles. currently, family and marriage can no longer be described by a well-defined set of roles, which are negotiated daily, built through the interaction of partners at the micro level and influenced by macro structures in the political and economic sphere. gender relations, attitudes and related values became more fluid, changing dynamically according to economy and sociology 89 june no. 1/2021 economic, cultural and institutional transformations. researches show that for a long time new family patterns and evolving gender roles are interlinked (goldscheider et al., 2015; kolpashnikova et al., 2020; oláh et al., 2021). gender roles depend on the attitudes and perceptions that are formed in youth during the socialization period, facilitating the formation of stereotypes that will determine the behaviour of individuals in adult life. today, many european countries managed to make significant progress in ensuring gender equality in various social areas, including family life. thus, more and more couples are characterized by a more uniform distribution of family obligations, increasing the participation of fathers in activities related to childcare and education, as well as increasing the participation rate of women in the labour market. despite regional differences in the decline of traditional gender roles and the rise of egalitarian attitudes, there are important differences between different social groups (people with a higher level of education, less religious people, unmarried people to a greater extent support egalitarian attitudes towards gender roles). at the same time, research shows that differences are larger between societies than between groups within a society. it would seem that with the increasing level of education of women and their participation in employment, husbands and wives will less and less define the roles of women in the traditional way, but more research shows that traditional gender roles persist in both spheres: professional and family (ashwin & isupova, 2018; kalabikhina, 2017). women's experiences reflect the gender contract that prescribes the specific roles and obligations of women and men. in this context, we notice the existence of a double perspective conflict. on the one hand, men recognize women's rights and abilities of selffulfilment, including in their families, but on the other hand, they do not want to take on some of the roles of serving family members and educating children, traditionally considered a prerogative of women. as a result, gender relations within the family have not undergone major changes, causing inconsistencies between levels of gender equity in the public and private spheres, this phenomenon being designated as an "incomplete gender revolution" (gerson & esping-andersen, 2010). however, researchers emphasize that the family is a dynamic entity, characterized by increasing complexity in terms of decision-making processes and the organization of family life, which are under the influence of macro structures in the political and economic spheres. the new role of women is increasingly incorporated into more dimensions of economic independence and supportive responsibilities that until recently belonged to men (oláh et al., 2018) young people are the leaders of change in any society, so studying, but especially monitoring, their attitudes towards gender roles in the family is of particular interest in terms of predicting changes in their behaviours, as well as policy measures needed to achieve sustainable progress in the field of gender equality. based on these, the purpose of the research was the analysis of young people's representations of gender roles in the family and their determinants factors. given the importance of gender representations for demographic dynamics, marital behaviour, family formation and childbearing, the research focused on issues related to marriage and family. we focused on the main family roles that are traditionally assigned to men and women: decision-making, material family maintenance, household chores, and childcare. the attitudes of young people regarding the most important qualities attributed to men and women, as well as regarding the takeover of the husband's name after marriage by women were also studied. questions about gender roles were asked both from the perspective of traditional representations (e.g., "the husband must work and provide material for the family, and the wife should take care of the household and children") and others as egalitarian (e.g., "both spouses must work and share their family responsibilities equally"). research data and methods the current study is based on the "attitude of young people towards family and marriage" sociological research conducted in 2019 by the centre for demographic research in chisinau, the capital of the republic of moldova. the sample volume constituted 506 respondents, being representative according to sex and age, the confidence interval being 95%. youth aged between 20 and 35, who had never been married, were the ones interviewed. theoretical and scientifical journal 90 june no. 1/2021 chisinau was selected for research, considering that about 25% of the total population of the country is concentrated here, especially the youth population, including youth from different localities of the republic of moldova, settled in the capital to pursue professional studies or find a job, or for a permanent residence. in the sample, those originating from the chisinau municipality represented 42%, while youth from other localities represent 58%. theoretical framework of research ”gender roles are the behaviors men and women exhibit in the private and public realm. they are the sociocultural expectations that apply to individuals on the basis of their assignment to a sex category (male or female)”, (tong, 2012). attitudes toward gender roles have been identified as predictors of individuals' behaviour and decisions (davis & greenstein, 2009), that is, people use their gender identity as a personal standard to assess and guide their behaviour. gender roles create behavioural sexual differences, given that people react to the expectations of others and act on their own gender identities that involve hormonal and neural mechanisms (wood & eagly, 2012). attitudes towards gender roles are multidimensional, involving the balance of power in the private and public spheres (constantin & voicu, 2015). a distinction is made between the cultural incompatibility of role that refers to general culture, norms and values regarding the role of women in society and the structural incompatibility that characterizes real possibilities available to women, as well as the constraints they face when trying to seize these opportunities. the structural factors of the gender relations system determine institutional opportunities within which the reproduction of role behaviour takes place. social differentiation in different spheres of social life is perceived as a set of objective prescriptions and is implemented in mechanisms of interaction and socialization through institutions such as family, school, immediate environment, media and employment, politics, etc. (темкина & здравомыслова, 2000). according to traditional perceptions of gender roles, women are assigned a role of housewife and main educator of children, probably due to their reproductive role and/or position in the family, this role also finding expression in the public sphere by the fact that in many countries, women work in the fields of care and education. at the same time men are assigned the role of head of the household and the main breadwinner of the family, while in the public sphere they have more opportunities for career advancement and function. gender stereotypes about family roles and professional roles are the most common stereotypes that prescribe the behaviour of men and women. most often, for women, the main social roles are family roles (mother, wife), for men professional roles (worker, family supporter). men are usually judged by their professional success, and women by the presence and state of family and children. modern perceptions of gender roles suggest an alternative perspective, emphasizing that individuals' behaviour should not be determined solely by their gender, and that there should be more equal relationships between men and women. while researching youth attitudes on gender roles in the family we based our study on the theoretical concept of the multiple equilibrium (esping-andersen et al., 2013) aimed at transforming gender roles and their impact on the family, through the interaction between family-related behaviour and changes in the social roles of women and men reflected in their gender responsibilities for economic security and family care. there are three types of balance: traditional, egalitarian and "unstable". the theory holds that stable balances are based on strong regulatory compliance and produce more equitable results. in contrast, unstable equilibria are likely to exhibit unfair behaviour. equal balance is characterized by homogeneity and gender equity in the division of labour. the erosion of traditional specialization and the spread of egalitarian values is associated with the prevalence of "unstable equilibrium" behaviour, due to structural factors that prevent the achievement of definitive progress in this field (the transition from the traditional to the equalitarian model). economy and sociology 91 june no. 1/2021 literature review researchers conclude that the attitudes of the younger generation change faster than those of older generations, they more often argue that it is beneficial for both sexes to achieve higher qualifications and good careers and that childcare should be a common responsibility of men and women. however, they often still choose the educational and occupational path typical of the gender, as a result, their behaviour has a traditional connotation (tinklin et al., 2005). a study based on data from 36 countries shows that young people show a higher level of equal attitudes in countries with higher levels of gender equality, but young women in all countries have more equal attitudes towards gender roles than young men (dotti sani & quaranta, 2017). “gender role changes are closely intertwined with the de-standardization of family biographies leading to a growing diversity of relationships over the life course as well as increasingly complex family compositions and household structures” (oláh et al., 2021). each stage in the course of family life shapes gender roles, and diverse political and cultural contexts facilitate or hinder family and gender role transitions (oláh et al., 2021). gender differences in attitudes towards gender roles are smaller in more traditional societies, where both women and men accept more traditional roles because economic development is slower, while the lower diffusion of materialistic values places gender equality on a secondary plan. in contrast, in social contexts where gender equality is more advanced, differences in attitudes are more pronounced since women, especially the young ones, are more likely to act in their own interests and have gender equality attitudes (inglehart & norris, 2003), and the more egalitarian a society becomes, the weaker gender roles are (tong, 2012). the study on changes in the sexual behaviour between 2000 and 2017 of students in italy, one of the european countries where traditional norms have a significant impact on the family sphere, showed important changes in women's premarital and family behaviour, becoming much more liberal, and double standards on sexual behaviour between women and men have decreased significantly (minello et al., 2020). the highest level of gender equality has been achieved in northern european countries, both in the public and private spheres. on the other hand, traditionalist attitudes and practices are considered a specific phenomenon for eastern european countries. russian researchers, have, based on data from sociological research for the past three decades, concluded that for women career development and high-level education are seen as secondary priorities, while those related to family creation and the birth of normative children take the lead. during this period, the situation has not changed for the better, on the contrary, it has worsened, supporting discriminatory practices on the labour market and undermining the economic situation of women (кочергина, 2018). research in hungary has shown that the attitudes of higher education students towards gender roles are not necessarily modern. they are more pronounced at the declarative level, but not behaviourally (fényes, 2014). in romania, existing studies demonstrate the rooting and persistence of traditional attitudes towards gender roles (gökçel et al., 2014), "gender discrimination is perceived both in the economic field (in terms of employment and pay conditions), but also in the political and social ones" (tudorel et al., 2006). women in urban areas more frequently report discrimination. an accomplished woman in life is considered the one who successfully fulfils all the roles associated with her status: mother, housewife and professional. a man's achievements in life are not as much about family as they are about professional success and the level of income he can reach (roluri de gen şi statusuri în viaţa de familie şi în muncă, 2013). national studies show that traditional cultural standards regarding femininity and masculinity are becoming an objective obstacle in the effective socialization of the young generation (bodruglungu, 2007). the prevalence of traditional patriarchal norms characterizes the cultural context of gender relations. such representations that the roles of men in society are mainly related to professional self-affirmation and that of women with family and children are widespread. contemporary stereotypes of gender roles within the family are inconsistent and contradictory, presenting a conglomeration of traditional and egalitarian perceptions (gagauz, 2012). theoretical and scientifical journal 92 june no. 1/2021 the high prevalence of stereotypes, perceptions, norms and traditional gender roles contributes to the persistence of gender discrimination. traditional gender roles are usually assigned to women and girls in the private and unpaid domestic sphere, while men and boys are paid to work in the public sphere. a total of 90.5% among men and 81.5% among women consider that for a woman the most important thing is to take care of the house and cook for the family (cheianu-andrei et al., 2015). almost 58.3% of respondents support at least one gender stereotype (either they agree that men are mainly responsible for making money or that decisions should be made mainly by one sex, i.e. men), and 21.2% of respondents support both gender stereotypes. a comparison of surveys from 2006 and 2016 shows no significant changes in perceptions of gender roles over the past ten years (gender barometer, f.a.). based on the analysis of literature, the following hypotheses were formulated: 1) it was assumed that young people from chisinau will have more egalitarian attitudes regarding gender roles in the family, than young people from other localities of the country; 2) young people with higher education identify more frequently with modern gender roles, than young people with a lower level of education; 3) young women more often than men will have more modern egalitarian attitudes about gender roles. main results according to the research results, both young girls and boys have symmetrical representations on the importance of certain qualities for women and men. thus, in men, study participants respect such qualities as intellect, responsibility, ability to earn money, desire to succeed, the capacity to "cope with difficulties and resourcefulness". more than two-thirds of the respondents mentioned these qualities. in women, the most important qualities are considered intellect, fidelity, responsibility and resourcefulness, being an attentive and caring housewife. it is observed that for both women and men there are similar qualities as being resourceful and able to cope with difficulties, this fact being determined by multiple economic difficulties faced by the population of the republic of moldova and the need to overcome various crises such as low income or job loss, self-employment, etc., respectively, the ability of individuals/couples to cope with these challenges. it should be noted that respondents mentioned these qualities for both sexes with a different level of education, which signals the awareness of young people of the challenges of modern changing society and the importance of having skills to combat the negative impact of the external environment, stress, various crises and life difficulties. women with higher education want to see such qualities in men as intellect, responsibility and ability to cope with difficulties, while those with a lower level of education appreciate a more caring attitude, loyalty and the ability to manage. men with higher education consider intellect, easy-going character and fidelity as the most important qualities in women. it was found that young people pay more attention to physical attractiveness. both women and men consider this characteristic "very important" for women, both in the opinion of men (63.7%), but especially in the opinion of women (69.8%). such attitudes are explained by the fact that women are to a greater extent under the influence of sociocultural representations that idealize female attractiveness; moreover, physical attractiveness has a higher value in the mass consciousness of women than men (варлашкина & козубенко, 2010), and the wide promotion of beauty and youth in the media, fuels these representations. the physical attractiveness of men and its significance is also a trait appreciated by both sexes. about a third (32.8%) of the girls and 36.9% of men interviewed consider the physical attractiveness of men "very important", especially an athletic physique, to be an expression of masculinity. studies in the field show that masculinity in the representations of women is perceived as the power and ability to defend a woman, and in those of men as a quality that attracts the attention of women (варлашкина & козубенко, 2010). a discrepancy in the respondents' opinions is observed in attributing the importance of qualities such as fidelity. if for women this characteristic is supposed to be important in the opinion of 86% of the interviewed girls and 86.9% of the interviewed boys, then the fidelity of the men is viewed differently. a good part of the interviewed girls (91.8%) consider that being faithful is very important for a man, while only 68.1% of the interviewed young men mentioned this quality. thus, young men show a more liberal attitude towards men's sexual behaviour, reflecting social attitudes, which are harsher on women's economy and sociology 93 june no. 1/2021 infidelity and more tolerant of men's infidelity. according to other research, young people and men often appreciate their own infidelity positively, being intolerant of female infidelity (кочеткова, 2017). however, recent studies show an increasing importance of sexual fidelity in the context of the transformation of the marital compartment and the spread of cohabitation among young people. the idea that would reflect a dual regime is becoming more widespread "when someone is alone, they are allowed to have more than one partner, but when they are in an emotional relationship, sexual fidelity is a social norm" (minello et al., 2020). gender symmetry about some important qualities persists when it comes to the economic skills of men and women, and the sharing of responsibilities for the material security of families. thus, women's ability to earn money is not appreciated, which is associated with maintaining the man's traditional role as the main breadwinner, which involves the regular and full employment of men in the labour market and the irregular or flexible employment of women. this fact confirms the specificity of traditional representations on gender roles, according to which not only men (76.3%) consider that the material insurance of the family is their duty, but also women expect this role to be fulfilled by men (73.2%). opinions of respondents do not differ significantly depending on the environment of origin, being specific for the natives from other localities and the natives from chisinau. about two-thirds of respondents (both men and women) believe (agree or partially agree) that "the husband's job is to make money, and the wife's job is to run the household and take care of the family." which demonstrates the persistence of stereotypes about the traditional division of family roles. however, many respondents consider that "both spouses must work and share their family responsibilities equally". 63.4% of the interviewed men and 70.3% of the women "agreeing" with this statement, while 31.1% of the men and 27.5% of the women "partially agree". a large part of the young interviewees supports the opinion that "spouses must agree on the order and role that everyone has in the family": 66.5% of men and 73.6% of women agreed with this statement, 30,2% of men and 22.8% of women having "partially agreed" (and the rest refraining from answers). the analysis of the agreement scale averages with statements/attitudes regarding the main responsibilities within the family shows that both men and women share modern role attitudes, the median for three statements out of the four being higher than 2.5 (table 1). gender differences are small, women showing their modern attitudes to a greater extent. however, young people, especially men, also partially agree with traditional attitudes towards gender roles in the family. the highest degree of persistence of the traditional role is found concerning the responsibility of the husband to ensure financial cover to the family, the average scale showing that young people, both men and women, agree with this statement. table 1 attitudes towards gender roles in the family, average scale of agreement (3agree, 2 partially agree, 1 disagree) men women traditional attitudes in marriage, all decisions must be made by the spouses together 2.84 2.88 spouses need to agree on the order and roles they each have in the family 2.65 2.71 both spouses must work and share their family responsibilities equally 2.61 2.68 the modern woman should work and make a career 2.28 2.46 modern attitudes the husband must work and provide material wealth for the family, and the wife must take care of the household and the children. 2.2 1.75 for women, family responsibilities should be at the forefront 2.45 2.16 caring for children is the main task of women 2.51 2.23 providing for the family financially is the main task of men 2.85 2.74 theoretical and scientifical journal 94 june no. 1/2021 concluding the ideas set out above, we note that, on the one hand, men are given a higher priority in terms of liability for the material security of the family, which is contradictory at first sight if we consider the high degree of participation of women in economic activity, but also absolutely explicable if we refer to the difference between the salaries of women and men. the pay gap, discriminatory labour market practices, and reduced opportunities to combine professional and family roles determine that men continue to be the main breadwinners of the family (gagauz, 2021). application of the logistics model (table 2) for the analysis of role attitudes within the family demonstrates that they depend, to some extent, on the respondents' level of education. both men and women with higher education rarely support the idea that "the husband should work and the wife should take care of the family, household and children", but as they get older, young people show more conservatism, more often supporting a strict distribution of family roles. girls support the view that "modern women should work and pursue a career" to a greater extent than boys. but as young adults, their preferences also change and they are more likely to agree that "for a woman, family responsibilities should come first". table 2 the influence of the respondents' socio-demographic characteristics on gender role attitudes (n=506) statement sex age education levels originally from chisinau municipality b (std. error) b (std. error) b (std. error) b (std. error) the husband must work and the wife must take care of the household and children .441*** (.06) -.115** (.04) .313*** (.07) -.020 (.06) a modern woman has to work and make a career -.155*** (.05) .070* (.04) .012 (.06) .045 (.05) for a woman, family responsibilities should come first .280*** (.05) .014 (.04) .225*** (.07) .073 (.06) note: *p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001; (two-tailed). young people support the maintenance of traditional gender roles, with similar reasoning. thus, girls and boys consider that it is more natural for women to take care of the household and children, given the fact that they are more able to take responsibility for the house and children than men. the reasoning about the role of men as primary caregivers was mainly based on conventional social reasoning like the fact that men can get better jobs and earn more than women, and this role is a responsibility of men. thus, in their representations on gender roles, young people rely on social stereotypes about the "natural roles" of women and men, as well as on some reasoning about social barriers that women face on the labour market. all this allows us to conclude that a lasting justification for maintaining the traditional division of roles persists, at least in the current socio-economic conditions. an important question is the distribution of power in the family and leadership. among young people, there are different ideas on this subject both traditionalist, patriarchal and more modern ones, involving equality of partners. a considerable part of the respondents (38.2%) consider that the man should be head of the family, and the proportion of those who gave preference to women is insignificant (up to 6%). at the same time, over half of the respondents selected the "both (husband and wife) equally" answer option. the patriarchal idea that a family needs a leader and it should be the husband is much more popular among men (48.7%) than among women (29%). women are more likely to support the idea that "both are equal" than men, thus demonstrating the longing to have equalitarian relationships in the family. traditional representations of the husband as the head of the family are more specific to those from rural areas 47.2% against 29.3% of the total number of respondents from chisinau, as well as young people with a low level of education (52.3%). among young people with higher education, the economy and sociology 95 june no. 1/2021 share of those who believe that power in the family should belong to "both spouses equally" is higher 57.8% of men and 63.8% of women. however, despite the frequent identification of young people with traditional representations regarding the distribution of power in the family, most of the young people interviewed believe that "in marriage, all decisions must be made by spouses together" 84.7% of men and 88.5% of women agreeing with this statement, with 14% of men and 10.8% of women having partially agreed. an aspect of patriarchal origin preserved and of high significance is the tradition that women should take the surname of the husband when they marry, this being a symbol of family and marriage even in countries with a high level of gender equality, despite the fact that it comes from the times, when women had few legal rights and were perceived as the property of their husbands. the religious origin of this custom signifies the spiritual unity of the family, the secular one the legal unity, given the fact that married women could not own property, which after marriage passed to husbands. at the same time, this habit also reflected the position of the woman in society as well as the superior position of the husband/man. recent studies demonstrate the links between the common traditions of marriage and the dynamics of gender power. it has been found that not only women face stereotypes when they break the tradition, keeping their own names after marriage, but also men whose wives break the family name tradition, as they are considered less powerful (robnett et al., 2018). as in most countries, the family code of the republic of moldova stipulates that "at the conclusion of the marriage, the spouses, may, of their own will, choose the surname of one of them or a compound formed by connecting the names of both as a common family name or each of them keeps their name. of the family she wore until marriage or connects the family name of the other spouse to her own family name". despite this fact, nowadays, in most cases, women take their husband's name after marriage. the attitudes of young people on this subject are asymmetric in terms of gender. men interviewed (63.6%) believe that "the wife should take the name of the husband" and only 30% of girls support this idea. a relatively high proportion of respondents consider that this is optional, "depending on the circumstances and according to the desire of the partners" 29.7% of men and 58.7% of women. respondents who claim that the husband is the head of the family more often consider the need for the woman to change her name in marriage. thus, for a significant part of the young interviewees, the takeover by the wife of the husband's name is a symbol of male leadership in the family. the transformation of gender representations bears, to a large extent, the imprint of socioeconomic conditions and opportunities for women to achieve economic independence. in the republic of moldova, the last decades have been marked by numerous socio-economic crises, poverty, and low living standards, which are still a problem for many families. at the same time, in young people, it motivates the postponement of marriage and family formation after graduation and gaining an acceptable lifestyle level. the distribution of power in the family depends on the income of the spouses and the contribution of each in the common family budget. young people support the idea that the formation of the family budget is a responsibility of both spouses, with over 88% of respondents agreeing with this statement (over 86% of men and 90% of women). this confirms the orientation of young people towards the family model with both spouses employed, which allows ensuring a decent standard of living for the family and children and the high orientations of women for participation in the labour market. given that the study was conducted among young people who were married, they were asked if the material situation of the partner is important to them. the obtained results show that this aspect has a certain impact in choosing the life partner. thus, 23.8% of the men and 39.5% of the women interviewed said that for them the material situation of the partner is "very important" and "important", about 48% of the respondents of both sexes consider that it is "not the most important thing" and only 19.6% of men and 9.7% of women answered, "not at all important" (the rest of the respondents had a hard time answering this question). these results reflect, to some extent, that some young people, especially women, support the stereotypes of old, when the older husband, accumulating property and human capital, already had income to support the family, thus being able to and allows her to get married. for a woman, usually of a younger age, youth and health were considered her most valued capital, her fate related to household chores and childbirth. at the same time, these theoretical and scientifical journal 96 june no. 1/2021 representations correlate with young people's responses to men's higher responsibility for the family's financial well-being. official statistics show that after the birth of a child, men remain the main breadwinners of the family, while a high percentage of women unemployed women unemployed before childcare leave receive a minimal allowance, which does not meet the needs of the mother and child. thus, young women being insecure in their financial stability in connection with a child's birth want to see material support in the future husband. respectively, for young girls the financial wellbeing of the partner may be more important than for young men. the study showed that young people face several problems in achieving financial independence due to unemployment, reduced employment opportunities and low wages, only 16.5% of respondents stating that they are "fully financially insured", while 42.9% "do not always meet the necessary expenses" and 35.4% "depend on their parents". even among youth aged 30-34, about 22% "could not cope without the help of parents." women more often than men have stated that they are materially dependent on either their parents or their partner. table 3 self-assessment by youth of their financial situation i am financially insured, i have enough for everything i need i do what i have to do, even though i can't always afford it without the help of my parents, i wouldn't be able to do it my partner supports me other situation total men 17.2 48.1 32.6 1.7 0.4 100 women 16.0 38.7 37.5 6.3 1.5 100 total 16.5 43 35.3 4.2 1 100 conclusions research results show that young people's perceptions of the basic qualities of men and women are still under the pressure of stereotypes, constituting an intermediate model of transition from traditional roles, based on the division of labour, to modern egalitarian ones, which involve equal sharing of women family responsibilities and roles. although gender stereotypes persist in the family, they are not already prevalent, with both sexes likely to share material family and household responsibilities, especially those related to raising and caring for children. to the extent that women will enjoy more opportunities for self-affirmation in the professional sphere and the conditions that will allow both parents to combine successfully professional and family roles, these differences will diminish. although there were some differences between young people from chisinau and those from other localities in attitudes about gender roles in the family, they are not so pronounced, given that young people from other localities become rapidly integrated into the urban environment during their studies and employment, assimilating the way of life, values and representations of urban youth. young people with higher education more often give preference to the equal distribution of gender roles in the family compared to young people with a lower level of education. girls more often than boys advocate for a fair relationship, although in some respects, such as the responsibility of men for the financial support of the family, the importance of the material situation of the partner, expresses rather traditional views. given the high degree of aspirations of young women for professional activity and career advancement and reduced opportunities to combine professional and family roles we can predict that this discrepancy will continue to be a barrier to achieving this goal, helping to preserve the traditional gender relations. the study's conclusions fall within the theory of multiple equilibrium(esping-andersen et al., 2013), especially the intermediate type, specific for countries in transition from the traditional type of gender relations to the modern one. the question is how 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(2000). социология гендерных отношений и гендерный подход в социологии. социологические исследования, 11, 15–23. article history received 04 april 2021 accepted 20 may 2021 how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 104 no. 2 / 2019 acquisition of foreign citizenship by moldovan immigrants tatiana tabac1, phd student, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.2-09 jel classification: f22, k37, j11 udc: 314.74, 325.14 abstract the paper explores some aspects of the acquisition of foreign citizenship by immigrants from moldova. the purpose of the study is to estimate the size and geography of acquisition of foreign citizenship in context of migration policies changes in countries of destination. the study is based on statistical analysis of the oecd, eurostat database and other representative sources, as well as an analysis of migration policy of the countries of citizenship acquisition. the results show that about a million people received foreign citizenship from 1992 up to present. the main countries for acquiring citizenship are: romania, russia, usa, portugal, italy, bulgaria, canada and germany. the access of moldova population to citizenship of developed countries contributes to the intensification and expansion of international migration. for moldovan immigrants, the policies of the countries of destination have an important role in the process of acquiring citizenship. keywords: naturalization, foreign citizenship, moldovan immigrants, migration policy. în articol se discută unele aspecte privind dobândirea cetățeniei străine de către imigranții din moldova. scopul cercetării constă în estimarea dimensiunii și geografiei dobândirii cetățeniei străine prin prisma schimbărilor în politicile migraționale din țările de destinație. studiul se bazează pe analiza statistică a bazei de date ocde, eurostat și a altor surse reprezentative, precum și analiza politicilor migraționale ale țărilor de dobândire a cetățeniei. rezultatele studiului arată că aproximativ un milion de persoane au primit cetățenia străină din 1992 până în prezent. principalele țări de dobândire a cetățeniei sunt: românia, rusia, sua, portugalia, italia, bulgaria, canada și germania. accesul populației moldovei la cetățenia țărilor dezvoltate contribuie la intensificarea și extinderea migrației internaționale. pentru imigranții din moldova, politicile țărilor de destinație au un rol important în procesul de dobândire a cetățeniei. cuvinte-cheie: naturalizare, cetățenie străină, imigranți din moldova, politici migraționale. в статье рассматриваются некоторые аспекты приобретения иностранного гражданства иммигрантами из молдовы. цель исследования: оценка масштабов и географии приобретения иностранного гражданство в контексте изменений миграционной политики в странах назначения. исследование основано на статистическом анализе базы данных оэср, евростата и других репрезентативных источников, а также анализе миграционной политики стран приобретения гражданства. результаты исследования показывают, что около миллиона человек получили иностранное гражданство с 1992 г. по настоящее время. главными странами приобретения гражданства являются: румыния, россия, сша, португалия, италия, болгария, канада и германия. доступ населения молдовы к гражданству развитых стран способствует интенсификации и расширению международной миграции. для иммигрантов из молдовы политика стран назначения играет важную роль в процессе получения гражданство. ключевые слова: натурализация, иностранное гражданство, мигранты из молдовы, миграционная политика. introduction. there are already three decades since international migration became a massive phenomenon for the republic of moldova. the last censuses in the destination countries (2011) registered about 600 thousand migrants from moldova with residence abroad (15, gagauz, 1 ©tatiana tabac, tania.tabac@gmail.com mailto:tania.tabac@gmail.com economy and sociology 105 no. 2 / 2019 o., et al. 2016), this number representing about 20% of the total population. according to recent estimates, moldova is one of the countries with highest emigration rates in the european area (13, european demographic data sheet, 2018). in some countries, duration of stay of immigrants exceeds 10-20 years (e.g. germany, russia, italy, portugal, usa), meaning that for many immigrants the host country has become the country of permanent residence. in russia, germany (28, tabac, t., 2017) and italy (9, deleu, e., 2017) second-generation immigrants were registered already. the analysis of citizenship and its acquisition by moldovan immigrants is necessary, on the one hand as part of studying their integration in destination countries, and on the other hand as an important factor contributing to the expansion of international migration. for moldovan immigrants, acquiring the citizenship of one of the eu countries represents firstly free movement and the right to work in almost all countries worldwide, and secondly a wider range of opportunities for settlement migration for people who aspire to do so. in this context, in recent decades, access to romanian citizenship is an important factor that favors legal migration. the purpose of the research is to estimate the size and geography of acquisition of foreign citizenship during the 1992-2016 period, according to the countries which conferred them and naturalization policies that favored this. to our best knowledge, there aren’t any studies that approach the naturalization process and acquisition of foreign citizenship by moldova population. therefore, the importance of our study is determined by supplementing this gap, as well as by contributing to the development of migration policies. understanding naturalization decisions there are numerous research papers that study the determinants, causes, barriers and consequences of the immigrants naturalisation in destination countries. all of these studies are conducted to understand why some immigrants are more likely than others to become naturalized. regardless of the country and promoted policies, most research shows that only a fraction of the eligible immigrants access the citizenship of the host country (22, mazzolari, 2009; devoretz and pivnenko, 2005). in literature we find various factors that determine an immigrant to access the citizenship of the country in which he/she lives. some studies emphasize the importance of the individual characteristics of immigrants such as demographic characteristics (4, bevelander, p., veenman, j. 2006), economic characteristicsincome, occupation and education (7, chiswick, b.r., miller, p.w., 2008; 12, devoretz, d.j., pivnenko, s., 2005), period of immigration or residence (30, tran, k., kustec, s., chui, t., 2005), cultural background. in other studies, the focus is on the political and institutional context of country of immigration as a factor that also influences the naturalization process (32, vink, m.p., prokic-breuer, t., dronkers, j., 2013; 33, vink, m.p., dronkers, j., 2012). in addition, some studies show that the characteristics of the origin country influence the naturalization process in destination countries, particularly regarding the possibility to hold dual citizenship (34, yang, p.q., 1994; 7, chiswick, b.r., miller, p.w., 2008, 19, jones-correa, m., 2001), although not as much as individual characteristics. in this aspect it has been demonstrated that immigrants from developing countries have higher naturalization rates, than immigrants from developed countries (7, chiswick, b.r., miller, p.w., 2008; 31, vink, m.p., prokic-breuer, t., dronkers, j., 2017). an important barrier in the naturalization process is the possibility to hold double citizenship, granting the right of migrants to become naturalized in the receiving country without losing the nationality of the country of origin. though, many countries have already legalized dual citizenship, there are countries in the world that do not accept it, as well as countries that impose restrictions on acquisition, many of which are located in europe. prohibition on dual citizenship affects especially immigrants from developed countries, who have more to lose if they break the legal connection with the country of birth (32, vink, m.p., prokic-breuer, t., dronkers, j., 2013). in this sense, the researchers consider that losing the citizenship of country of origin is the main cost of naturalization (2, bevelander, p., 2010). at the same time, the existence of other important barriers in the naturalization process was demonstrated, as a good knowledge of the language, the difficulty of the citizenship test, the physical presence in the country, but also the financial barriers, as well as the high cost of documents theoretical and scientifical journal 106 no. 2 / 2019 processing. for example, hainmueller et al. (18, 2018) have shown that administrative taxes are a barrier for low income immigrants who want to become us citizens. however, acquiring the citizenship of destination country offers more benefits to immigrants, but first represents the people's intention to permanently settle in the country. most often it is considered that the benefits of naturalization are the equal rights with citizens of destination country, the right to vote and political participation (10, derooij, e.a., 2011), greater insurance and protection from the state, the chance of being employed in public and governmental positions, the opportunity to increase the income and to obtain higher professional positions (liebig and von haaren 2011), to buy or to rent a house (2, bevelander, p., 2010), as well as more access to bank loans (14, enchautequi, m.e., giannarelli, l., 2015). for citizens of developing countries, the citizenship of a developed country is a benefit to travel without barriers at international level (14, enchautequi, m.e., giannarelli, l., 2015; 33, vink, m.p., dronkers, j., 2012). at the same time, refugees, asylum seekers and persecuted people in their country of origin will be more motivated to become naturalized in the host country (3, bevelander, p., devoretz, d.j., 2008). from all the benefits obtained from naturalization the most attention is on the economic impact of naturalization. lots of studies both at european, and global level shows how important is the economic effect for naturalized immigrants. we find a positive relationship in this regard to bratsberg, ragan jr., and nasir (6, 2002), devoretz and pivnenko (12, 2005), steinhardt and wedemeier (26, 2011), picot and hou (23, 2011). it has been found for the us that naturalization can increase the earnings of eligible immigrants with 8,9% (14, enchautequi, m.e., giannarelli, l. 2015), and according to the estimates of devoretz and pivnenko (11, 2008), naturalized immigrants have the incomes with 3.5% higher than non-citizens if they are from an oecd country and with 14.6% if they are from outside oecd. acquizition the citizenship of country of immigration represents a process that requires applicants to demonstrate language and historical-cultural knowledge, financial independence, adequate civic behaviour, or in other words, to show evidence of social integration. for this reason obtaining citizenship is considered the coronation of a completed integration process (1, baubock, r. et al., 2006). data and methods for analysis, we used the data on the acquisition of nationality provided by oecd and eurostat. for russia, we used the data provided by minister of the interior/ federal migration service and presented by čûdinovskih, o.s. (8, 2018). to study worldwide policies, we used world population policies database by un desa, and eudo citizenship observatory database for national level policies. the study is based on statistical data analysis and policies analysis. world experience in acquiring foreign citizenship there are two main ways of acquiring citizenship at birth: jus sanguinis, it offers nationality right only to persons with the same racial, linguistic, ethnic and cultural characteristics of titular nation and jus soli, which establishes citizenship right whether or not the person corresponds to the mentioned characteristics. j.b. scott records in 1930 that in 17 countries in europe, jus sanguinis is the only nationality test, while in america most states use a combination of these two paths. in the long run, many european countries adopted jus soli criterion (recently germany and greece) and today we know a more frequent coexistence of these two criteria (17, guimezanes, n., 2011). naturalization is another way of acquiring citizenship and it is used by people who don’t have jus sanguinis or jus soli connection with the country. naturalization is the process by which a foreign citizen can acquire, under the law conditions, the citizenship of country of resident. at present, naturalization is recognized and used worldwide, except some countries from asia and oceania (lebanon, kuwait, united arab emirates, myanmar, nauru) (fig.2). at the same time, a large number of countries restrict acquisition of citizenship through naturalization. these are european countries such as spain, italy, switzerland, austria, slovenia, lithuania and the republic of moldova (fig. 1), india and nepal from asia, brazil and venezuela from south america, as well as an important part of african countries. typically, naturalization is a voluntary action of applicant and requires that certain specific conditions to be met. each country has adopted own requirements for naturalization. economy and sociology 107 no. 2 / 2019 figure 1. policy on naturalization in europe, 2013 source: the figures were elaborated by the author based on the database un desa world population policies database (https://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx, accessed 10.05.2019) figure 2. policy on naturalization in world, 2013 source: the figures were elaborated by the author based on the database un desa world population policies database (https://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx, accessed 10.05.2019) https://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx https://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx theoretical and scientifical journal 108 no. 2 / 2019 according to oecd international migration database, the number of persons who acquired citizenship in a foreign country over the past 30 years (1987-2016) amounts to 43.5 million. in 2008, for the first time, 2 million people were registered in oecd, and for the second time, 1 million people in usa, the first case being recorded in 1996. data for 2013-2016 shows that 2 million persons annually acquired citizenship in other countries. the most cases were registered in usa – 17.3 mln (40%), canada – 4.5 mln (10%), uk and australia, 3.2 mln (7%) and 3.1 mln (7%), in france and germany – 2.8 mln (6.5%) and 2.6 mln (6%), spain – 1.4 mln and italy – 1.2 mln, in sweden and netherlands – 1.0 mln each, in belgium 0.9 mln, switzerland – 0.8 mln, new zeeland and austria – 0.5 mln each. there are significant regional differences in immigrants access rate to citizenship of the host country. it was estimated that about 80% of foreign population of australia, sweden and the netherlands is naturalized after ten years of residence, in canada – 89%, norway and uk – around 70%, usa, austria and denmark – 50-60%, france – 47%, switzerland and germany – 35% and 37%, luxembourg with only 12% (21, liebig, t., von haaren, f., 2011). in this context, it seems that europe is differentiated by lower rates of naturalization compared to other economic developed countries. there are important scientific debates to understand whether these differences are due to individual characteristics of immigrants or policies adopted in destination and origin countries. many studies have shown the importance of preserving the nationality of country of origin. dual citizenship. the opportunity to hold the citizenship of two countries at the same time is relatively recent. human history reminds us that in the not-so-distant past, dual citizenship has been banned in most states of the world. in this regard, the hague convention of april 12, 1930, agrees that each person must have one citizenship and only one citizenship, and cases of statelessness and dual citizenship should be avoided. a large number of countries have revised their nationality laws in accordance with this convention, most of them from the post -war era, including the ussr. after the world war, on may 6, 1963, the council of europe adopted the convention on the reduction of cases of multiple nationality and on military obligations in cases of multiple nationality according to which nationals who have reached the age of majority and who acquire by their own will, through naturalization or recovery, the citizenship of another country cannot retain their citizenship. also a person possessing the citizenship of two or more countries must renounce them with the consent of the part to which wishes to renounce. from november 6, 1997, the council of europe adopts a new european convention on citizenship in which it is stipulated that each state is free to decide what consequences to assign if its citizens acquire or hold the citizenship of another country. in this way, the council of europe aims to achieve greater unity among its members and to avoid any form of discrimination on the grounds of citizenship by sex, religion, race, color, national or ethnic origin. in essence, this new convention agrees with dual citizenship. governments survey on world population policies conducted by un desa shows which governments allow their citizens to retain citizenship when acquiring another one, and if so, under what conditions or restrictions. restrictions refer to: (i) the involved countries (accepting dual citizenship in the case of certain countries) or (ii) the rights involved (accepting dual citizenship with restrictions on full citizenship rights). the results are presented in figures 3 and 4. if we look at the situation in europe in 2013, we notice that most states accept dual citizenship without any restrictions, only some countries, as the netherlands, austria, germany, czech republic, denmark, norway, spain, poland, belarus and lithuania recognize dual citizenship with restrictions. only three post-soviet countries do not accept dual citizenship: ukraine, latvia and estonia. researching the situation in the world we find that most countries in the world have accepted dual citizenship without restrictions. most states that do not recognize dual citizenship are from asia and africa. economy and sociology 109 no. 2 / 2019 figure 3. acceptance of dual citizenship in europe, 2013 source: the figures were elaborated by the author based on the database un desa world population policies database (https://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx, accessed 10.05.2019) figure 4. acceptance of dual citizenship in world, 2013 source: the figures were elaborated by the author based on the database un desa world population policies database (https://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx, accessed 10.05.2019) trends in moldovan immigrant’s access to foreign citizenship acquiring the citizenship of another country by the citizens from moldova became possible after 2002 when the law was amended for this purpose. until 2002, the constitution limited the possibility to https://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx https://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx theoretical and scientifical journal 110 no. 2 / 2019 hold other citizenship without losing moldovan citizenship, except in the cases provided by international agreements to which the republic of moldova is a party. despite some public discussions about possible negotiations for a bilateral agreement on dual citizenship with romania, moldova has not signed such treaties (16, gasca, v., 2012). the effect of the promoted policies is seen in the figure 5 and tabel 1, which shows the increased access to foreign citizenship since 2002. figure 5. acquisition of foreign citizenship by moldovan citizens in 1994-2016 period source: author’s estimates based on oecd international migration database, eurostat and national bureau of statistics data. note: the rate is represented on the left axis. table 1 acquisition of foreign citizenship by moldovan citizens in selected period and countries (thousand and %) source: author’s estimates based on oecd international migration database and eurostat. 1994-2001 2002-2008 2009-2016 1994-2016 1994-2001 2002-2008 2009-2016 1994-2016 usa 5,4 6,7 11,7 23,8 73,7 19,2 18,6 22,7 canada 0,9 2,7 8,3 11,9 12,4 7,7 13,2 11,4 italy 1,6 14,7 16,2 4,5 23,3 15,5 portugal 2,2 14,9 17,1 6,5 23,6 16,3 bulgaria 13,1 1,1 14,3 38,0 1,8 13,6 germany 0,6 3,3 2,9 6,9 8,5 9,6 4,6 6,5 spain 0,1 1,5 1,6 0,4 2,4 1,5 greece 0,1 1,1 1,1 0,1 1,7 1,1 united kingdom 0,1 0,5 0,8 1,5 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,4 france 0,1 0,2 0,5 0,8 1,4 0,6 0,8 0,8 belgium 0,3 0,5 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,8 czech republic 0,002 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,2 0,7 0,5 other countries 0,2 3,8 4,4 8,3 2,6 10,9 6,9 7,9 total 7,4 34,6 63,0 105,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 acquisition of nationality by country %thousand economy and sociology 111 no. 2 / 2019 romania is the country with the most citizenship requests from moldovan citizens. unfortunately, there are no official statistical data available to present the exact number of moldovan citizens who also hold romanian citizenship, but it is important to know that according to the romanian citizenship law no. 21 of march 1, 1991, the citizens of the republic of moldova restore the romanian citizenship, but do not acquire it. pursuant to article 11 of this law, at the regaining of the romanian citizenship are entitled the persons who acquired it by birth and who lost it for reasons not attributable to them or this citizenship was taken away without their will, as well as their descendents up to the third generation, with possibility of retaining foreign citizenship and establishing their domicile in the country, or keeping it abroad. thus, the recovery of romanian citizenship is justified to be done by all persons from the republic of moldova who were born and lived in the territory of romania until 1940 and their descendants up to the third generation. the regaining of romanian citizenship plays a very important role in the evolution of migration from moldova, because it favors the legal migration in ue countries and work migration. the national survey the barometer of public opinion held in april 2007 showed that 1.4% of the population owned romanian citizenship, 9.8% filed the documents for its regaining and 27.0% intended to submit it. the reasons are free movement in the eu 18.6%, legal work in the eu 12.6%, free movement in romania 4.7%, identity and belonging to the romanian people 2.5%. however, the massive phenomenon of regaining the romanian citizenship cannot be considered and analyzed as an ordinary naturalization, since the method by which it is obta ined refers to descendant born abroad. as mentioned, there is no official and transparent source that systematically presents the situation regarding the regaining of romanian citizenship by moldovan citizens. some statistical data are presented periodically in the media. in 2013, the sorros foundation romania estimated at least 400 thousand moldovan citizens who received romanian passports during the period 1991 2012. subsequently, the romanian national authority citizenship announced that between 2002 and march 2018 romanian citizenship was regained by about 521 thousand citizens from moldova. in 2015-2017, about 175 thousand romanian citizenships were conferred to citizens from moldova (in 2015 45.5 thousand, in 2016 61.2 thousand, and in 2017 68.6 thousand). another specific situation is the acquisition of the citizenship of the russian federation by the moldovan people. since the break-up of the ussr, in russia there have been adopted two important legislative acts on citizenship: between 1992-2002 it was in force the law adopted until the break-up of the soviet bloc, and from 2002 the new law of citizenship was adopted. russian experts evaluated the law promulgated in the ussr as extremely libertarian, with the procedure of acquiring citizenship very simplified and greatly favoring the inhabitants of the former soviet countries (8, čûdinovskih, o.s., 2018), the people in these countries were enough between 3 months and 1.5 years to become russian citizens. in order to acquire russian citizenship, it is imperative that foreigners turn 18 years old, to live uninterruptedly on the territory of the country for 5 years, to speak russian, to have a legitimate source of livelihood and take an oath of respect for the constitution of the russian federation. at the same time, the legislation also provides for the acquisition of citizenship in a simplified procedure for certain categories of applicants. in the case of the moldovan population, the procedure for acquiring citizenship is simplified if in the past the applicant has held the citizenship of the ussr, as well as if they participated in the program for support of voluntary resettlement to russia of compatriots who live abroad, and has his / her residence in russia. the data showed that 3.7% of the naturalized immigrants in russia are citizens of the republic of moldova (8, čûdinovskih, o.s., 2018). at the same time, it is possible for the applicants to obtain citizenship through the foreign institutions of the russian federation (these are usually the consulates, embassies), while they are in the territory of the country of residence. this path was best accessed by the population on the left side of the dniester (8, čûdinovskih, o.s., 2018). according to the data, over 400 thousand moldovan citizens (including from transnistria) acquired the russian citizenship between 1992 and 2017 (table 2). theoretical and scientifical journal 112 no. 2 / 2019 table 2 persons from moldova admitted to the russian citizenship source: the table was elaborated by the author based on the data presented by chudinovskikh 2018. usa and canada offered citizenship to immigrants born in moldova with a higher frequency even if the intensity of migration in these countries is lower compared to other countries, for example italy, portugal and germany. most likely, the answer in this situation is the relatively simple naturalization process among international standards in both canada and the usa. to become eligible for citizenship, a person must be 18 years old and 5 years of continuous residence in the usa and 3 years (of the last 4 years) in canada (23, picot, g., hou, f., 2011). other important conditions are knowledge of english (or french for canada), knowledge of history and institutions, participation and oath taking, loyalty to the state, lack of criminal record in canada. at the same time, the children of immigrants born in the us or canada automatically obtain the citizenship of the respective countries. the number of naturalized persons during the whole period analyzed is estimated at almost 24 thousand in the usa and 12 thousand in canada. of the total number of naturalized migrants in the period 2002-2016, about 19% occurred in the us and 8-13% in canada (table 2). there are known several periods when immigrants to the us were naturalized in greater numbers, namely the years 1999-2000, 2012-2013 and the last years 2015-2016. the majority of immigrants who acquired citizenship in 1999-2000 arrived between 1991 and 1994 (86% and 91%, respectively). this increase was due, on the one hand, to improving the conditions for processing applications, and on the other hand to the 1996 legislative changes (prwora), which canceled many privileges for non-us citizens, which encouraged immigrants to gain citizenship (14, enchautequi, m.e., giannarelli, l., 2015; 5, bloemraad, i., 2006). in the other two periods, the increase of naturalization is closely related to the increase of the migration flows. in 2005-2006 there were two large flows of immigrants of about 3.5 and 3.0 thousand people, the majority being refugees and asylum seekers (29, tabac t., 2015), which caused the increase of naturalization in 2012-2013. this tendency can be followed permanently in the usa, the increase of the migratory flows leads respectively to the growth of the naturalized persons in the following years. based on these findings, we can consider that the migrants from the republic of moldova have motivation and desire to stay in the usa, and the citizenship is an opportunity in this regard. in the case of canada, the trend of naturalization has been stable throughout the years except for 2014 and 2015, when the number of naturalizations increased by 220% and 140%, respectively. we can assume that the situation occurred due to the intensification of the migration flows in 2009 and 2010 by 36% and 76%, respectively. however, during this period the processing fee has been changed year thousand year thousand year thousand year thousand year thousand year thousand 1992 0,02 2005 13,7 1992 2005 7,7 1992 0,02 2005 21,4 1993 0,2 2006 12,8 1993 2006 20,2 1993 0,2 2006 33 1994 3,1 2007 13,9 1994 2007 34,8 1994 3,1 2007 48,7 1995 8,6 2008 15,8 1995 2008 19,7 1995 8,6 2008 35,5 1996 7,7 2009 20,4 1996 2009 21,9 1996 7,7 2009 42,3 1997 7,4 2010 2 1997 2010 12,8 1997 7,4 2010 14,8 1998 7,1 2011 2,8 1998 2011 9,4 1998 7,1 2011 12,2 1999 5,6 2012 5,3 1999 2012 3,7 1999 5,6 2012 9 2000 7,1 2013 12,5 2000 2013 4,6 2000 7,1 2013 17,1 2001 9 2014 13,7 2001 2014 5,3 2001 9 2014 19 2002 6,7 2015 16,8 2002 2015 10,4 2002 6,7 2015 27,2 2003 0,4 2016 23 2003 1,1 2016 15,4 2003 1,5 2016 38,4 2004 7,3 2017 29 2004 5,3 2017 14,2 2004 12,6 2017 43,2 251,92 186,5 438,42 minis try of the inte rior/ fe de ral migration se rvice fore ign ins titutions total total total total economy and sociology 113 no. 2 / 2019 and the cost for citizenship has increased significantly, and when a new amendment comes into effect, there may be an increase in demand before the new requirement comes into effect, and a decline after that, as shown in the data presented below. southern europe: italy, portugal, spain and greece. to become eligible for citizenship in these countries it takes a period of residence of 6-7 years for portugal and greece and ten years of residence in italy and spain (in italy the period is reduced to four years for citizens from eu countries). other conditions: sufficient knowledge of the national language (for portugal), as well as the culture and history of the country (for greece), no criminal records of certain crimes (italy, portugal and greece), stable and sufficient income (italy and greece), to prove adequate social integration (portugal and spain). for spain it is especially important the oath of loyalty to the king and obedience to the constitution and renouncing to the citizenship of the country of origin. all these countries, except italy, ask persons applying for naturalization to demonstrate that they are integrated into society based on an integration test (24, pascouau, y., bruycker, p., 2011). the naturalization of immigrants in southern european countries began in the second half of the 20th century due to the fact that immigration to these territories is a relatively new phenomenon (27, tabac t., 2018) considering that the republic of moldova has gained independence from the soviet bloc recently. at the same time, an important factor in this situation is the public policies that regulate more restrictive naturalization procedures, compared to the countries analyzed above (in italy and spain it takes 10 years of legal residence while in spain it is also required to renounce to the previous citizenship). from the data we can see that immigrants started to acquire citizenship in portugal first, the period of intensive naturalization being observed between 2008-2013. the naturalization of immigrants in italy increased with 2012, which means ten years from law no.189 of july 30, 2002 (bossi-fini law), famous for the amnesty offered to illegal immigrants. from the data it is also observed the increase of naturalization up to 5.6 thousand in 2016, a highly significant increase in our case. for the whole analyzed period, 16.2 thousand immigrants acquired the italian citizenship and 17.1 thousand the portuguese citizenship. the citizenship of spain and greece was acquired by a very small number of immigrants, 1.6 thousand and 1.1 thousand, respectively, because in spain the conditions are harsher, whereas in greece the immigration was the lowest. western europe: germany, belgium, france and the uk. in the recent years, an intensification of the migration flows from moldova to this region is registered, largely due to the increase of the number of romanian citizens (27, tabac t., 2018). from this reason, we consider necessary an analysis of the current state regarding the acquisition of the citizenship of these countries. to become a citizen in belgium, france and the uk it is required a minimum of five years of continuous residence, while in germany – eight years (ten years until 2000). other specific requirements besides the knowledge of the language of the country, socio-economic integration, lack of criminal convictions, it is necessary to know the constitutional rights and duties in the case of france, and the intention to have the main domicile in the case of the uk. the conditions for acquiring the citizenship of germany are tougher than in the other countries. besides the fact that the knowledge of the german legal system and the demonstrated ability to support oneself and family without requesting for unemployment benefits are required, a mandatory condition is to give up to the citizenship of the country of origin. however, the largest number of immigrants from moldova to western europe have acquired german citizenship. between 1994-2016, 6.9 thousand immigrants have acquired german citizenship, 1.5 thousand uk citizenship and 0.8 thousand each – french and belgian citizenship. immigrants to germany also gain citizenship through cultural-ethnic affinity. that is, german ethnic immigrants from eastern europe who, with the break-up of the soviet bloc, settled in germany on the basis of a special certificate have the opportunity to automatically acquire citizenship through descents. however, renouncing another citizenship is required. according to statistisches bundesamt, about 90% of immigrants obtain citizenship through naturalization, the proportion of naturalization being estimated at 3-5% of the stock of immigrants from moldova (28, tabac t., 2017). other countries of naturalization in the analyzed period are bulgaria (14.3 thousand), ireland (2.3 thousand), turkey (2.1 thousand), czech republic (0.5 thousand), netherlands and australia (each 0.4 thousand). in bulgaria it is registered the largest number due to the simplified rules for offering citizenship since 2001, the mode of acquisition of citizenship is "by origin" and it implies the theoretical and scientifical journal 114 no. 2 / 2019 demonstration of ethno-cultural affinity with the bulgarian nation. although moldovan emigration to bulgaria has not been registered, the number of naturalized persons is close to that of portugal and italy. many have acquired bulgarian citizenship for emigration and legal work in eu countries. to become a citizen in the czech republic it is necessary to renounce the citizenship of another country, which motivates the moldovan immigrants to access czech citizenship. in this case, we can support the negative influence of policies because the flows of immigrants to the czech republic have always been at the level of flows in portugal (27, tabac t., 2018). the situation is also specific in the netherlands because it is required to renounce the citizenship of another country if it exists, but the number of immigrants in this country is not significant either. the conditions of citizenship in ireland and australia are relatively simple. there are required from two years (in australia) to five years of residence (in ireland), expressed intention to remain in the country, good character and loyalty to the state. insufficient statistical data does not allow us to mention the exact number of people who obtained citizenship in turkey during the analyzed period, only data for 2002 and 2003 shows about 970 and 900, respectively. such growth certainly represents changes in the level of policies promoted. conclusions in the context of the ones mentioned in this paper we conclude that at present, a significant number of moldovan citizens also possess the citizenship of another state. the anticipated estimates that we have at the moment allow us to consider that their number can be 1 million people, with some variations. reporting to the stable population of the country, this number represents ⅓ of the total. of course, the policies promoted by the other states had a great impact and for some countries it was not necessary for the citizen to be a classical immigrant established and integrated in the society. the case of romania, but also of bulgaria, is quite specific in this context because the acquisition of citizenship is made in line with ethnic and cultural origins with the respective countries. at the same time, the naturalization of immigrants in the russian federation was favored on the one hand by facilitated policies for the former ussr, and on the other hand by the socio-cultural similarities between the populations of these societies (knowledge of the russian language, similar values and so on). about a classic process of naturalization in which an immigrant must demonstrate eligibility for citizenship through socio-economic integration we can speak in the context of european and overseas countries. here, the impact of policies promoted by the countries of destination is observed too, and in this respect canada and usa differ from most eu countries by less austere naturalization policies. we consider that the naturalization of immigrants in the eu is low compared to the annual flows that go here and the stocks formed over the years. immigrants from moldova have demonstrated that they can successfully integrate socially and economically in all emigration countries and european countries are not an exception. we also want to emphasize the importance of tolerance towards dual citizenship (which exists both in the republic of moldova and in most of the host countries) as a determining factor in accessing foreign citizenship by moldovan immigrants. acquiring the citizenship of developed countries offers various benefits to immigrants from moldova, therefore the proportion of naturalizations is constantly increasing. the most important benefit is considered the mobility without barriers at international level, or in the case of the republic of moldova there are travel restrictions in the most countries of the world. the citizenship of a european country favors not only the visits, but also the employment in any of the eu countries, insurance,social and legal protection in the country of destination, as well as the opportunity of migration for settlement. these benefits are important for moldovan migrants considering the poor socioeconomic situation and political instability in the country. to our best knowledge, this is the first study that addresses the acquisition of foreign citizenship by moldovan immigrants and indicates the 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[accesat 23.07.2019]. disponibil: doi:10.2307/2546816 article history received 12 november 2019 accepted 24 december 2019 https://doi.org/10.1111%2fj.1747-7379.2001.tb00050.x http://legal.un.org/ilc/documentation/english/a_cn4_67.pdf https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264099104-en https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264099104-en https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264099104-en https://www.jstor.org/stable/2189299?seq=1 https://ideas.repec.org/a/zan/ygzier/v27y2018i1p79-90.html http://demografie.md/files/files/bi2015.pdf https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/11-008-x/11-008-x2004004-eng.pdf?st=ydhp0u7m https://doi.org/10.1177%2f1465116512440510 how to reduce the risk economy and sociology 63 june no. 1/2021 entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova: the role of government policy ana cirlan1, phd student, academy of economic studies of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-06 jel classification: f2, f68, k2, l26, l38, m2, o20, o29, 044 udc: 338.22:334.722(478) abstract the article presents and analyses the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova, as a solution for an integrated approach to the problems of entrepreneurs. entrepreneurial ecosystems represent a set of interdependent actors and coordinated factors so as to increase the productivity of smes. the paper includes: (i) investigating the literature on entrepreneurial ecosystems; (ii) analysis of the role of public policies in creating and supporting entrepreneurial ecosystems; (iii) finalizing the components of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova and performing their evaluation through the prism of international rankings. the aim of this research is to elucidate the role of entrepreneurial policies with a holistic approach to the creation of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. the key challenge for the authorities is to identify the pillars that contribute to the development of an ecosystem. however, the existence of a large number of entrepreneurial support programs and projects does not necessarily lead to a qualitative increase in the number of enterprises. the results of the research showed that the authorities promote policies to support the business environment with a fragmented approach and an emphasis on increasing quantitative indicators. at the same time, the analysis of the components of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova, through international rankings, indicates the deterioration of the business environment conditions. the research methodology is based on the analysis of policy documents on sme support and data provided by reports of international organizations (world bank, world economic forum, organization for economic cooperation and development, etc.). keywords: entrepreneurial ecosystem, public policies, international ranking, analysis. articolul prezintă și analizează ecosistemul antreprenorial din republica moldova, drept soluție pentru o abordare integrată a problemelor antreprenorilor. ecosistemele antreprenoriale reprezintă un set de actori interdependenți și factori coordonați astfel încât să sporească productivitatea întreprinderilor mici și mijlocii într-un anumit teritoriu. lucrarea include: (i) investigarea literaturii de specialitate privind ecosistemele antreprenoriale; (ii) analiza rolului politicilor publice în crearea și susținerea ecosistemelor antreprenoriale; (iii) definitivarea componentelor ecosistemului antreprenorial din republica moldova și efectuarea evaluării acestora prin prisma clasamentelor internaționale. scopul prezentei cercetări este de a elucida rolul politicilor antreprenoriale cu abordare holistică la crearea ecosistemului antreprenorial din republica moldova. provocarea cheie pentru autorități care încearcă să abordeze politicile privind ecosistemele antreprenoriale rezidă în identificarea pârghiilor, pilonilor care contribuie la dezvoltarea unui ecosistem și direcționarea eforturilor întru crearea / consolidarea acestora. or, existența unui număr mare de programe și proiecte de suport antreprenorial nu neapărat duc la creșterea calitativă a numărului de întreprinderi dintr-o zonă geografică. rezultatele cercetării au arătat că autoritățile promovează politici de susținere a mediului de afaceri cu abordare fragmentară și accent pe creșterea indicatorilor cantitativi. totodată, analiza componentelor ecosistemului antreprenorial din republica moldova, prin prisma clasamentelor internaționale, indică deteriorarea condițiilor mediului de afaceri și implicit existența unui șir de impedimente cu care se confruntă antreprenorii. metodologia cercetării se bazează pe analiza documentelor de politici privind susținerea imm-urilor și a datelor oferite de rapoartele organizațiilor internaționale (banca mondială, forumul economic mondial, organizația pentru cooperare și dezvoltare economică, etc.), privind nivelul de dezvoltare economică a țării, mediului de afaceri, capitalului uman etc. cuvinte-cheie: ecosistem antreprenorial, politici publice, clasamente internaționale, analiză. 1 id orcid 0000-0003-1751-9725 e-mail: anapavalachi@yahoo.com https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-02 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1751-9725 theoretical and scientifical journal 64 june no. 1/2021 в статье представлена и проанализирована предпринимательская экосистема в республике молдова, как решение для комплексного подхода к проблемам предпринимателей. предпринимательские экосистемы – совокупность взаимозависимых субъектов и координированных факторов, направленных на повышение производительности малых и средних предприятий на определенной территории. работа включает: (i) исследование литературы по предпринимательским экосистемам; (ii) анализ роли государственной политики в создании и поддержке предпринимательских экосистем; (iii) доработка компонентов предпринимательской экосистемы в республике молдова и выполнение их оценки через призму международных рейтингов. цель данного исследования – выяснить роль предпринимательской политики с целостным подходом к созданию предпринимательской экосистемы в республике молдова. основная задача властей, пытающихся реализовать политику предпринимательской экосистемы, состоит в том, чтобы определить компоненты, которые способствуют развитию экосистемы, и направить усилия на их укрепление. наличие большого количества программ и проектов поддержки предпринимательства не обязательно ведет к качественному увеличению количества предприятий в географическом районе. результаты исследования показали, что власти продвигают политику поддержки деловой среды с фрагментарным подходом и акцентом на увеличение количественных показателей. в то же время, анализ компонентов предпринимательской экосистемы в республике молдова через призму международных рейтингов указывает на ухудшение условий деловой среды и косвенно на наличие ряда препятствий, с которыми сталкиваются предприниматели. методология исследования основана на анализе программных документов по поддержке мсп и данных отчетов международных организаций (всемирного банка, всемирного экономического форума, организации экономического сотрудничества и развития и др.) об уровне экономического развития страны, окружающей среды. бизнес, человеческий капитал и др. ключевые слова: предпринимательская экосистема, государственная политика, международные рейтинги, анализ. introduction there is a global recognition of the fact that the development of successful small and mediumsized enterprises is one of the main prerequisites for the prosperity of local economies. creating a sustainable and competitive entrepreneurial ecosystem is at the heart of efforts to increase incomes and well-being in regional economies. despite the relative novelty of the entrepreneurial ecosystem concept, it rapidly caught the attention of authorities, international organizations, business environment and academia. a distinguished feature of the entrepreneurial ecosystem is the environment in which the company/firm operates. however, the company's activity is directly and undoubtedly influenced by external environmental factors, such as: access to finance and knowledge, the market, authorities and the regulatory framework, support and consulting services, competitors, culture, etc. the entrepreneurial ecosystem can be described as a generic context aimed at promoting entrepreneurship in a region. therefore, it consists of a horizontal network (customers and suppliers) and a vertical network (competitors and partners). it also includes organizations that support entrepreneurs: public or private financing agencies (banks, business angels, venture capital, etc.); support infrastructure (business incubators, consultants, etc.); research organizations (research centers, laboratories, etc.); and consortia of enterprises (active enterprises, associations and unions, etc.) (theodoraki & messeghem, 2017, p. 56). another eloquent definition of entrepreneurial ecosystems, which also refers to the concept of sustainability, states that they are an interconnected group by actors from a certain geographical area, committed to sustainable development by providing support and facilitating new viable projects (cohen, 2006, p. 3). ecosystems are most often treated as a set of interconnected entrepreneurial actors (both potential and existing), entrepreneurial organizations (firms, venture capitalists, business angels and banks), institutions (universities, public sector agencies and financial institutions) and entrepreneurial processes (for example, business growth rate, number of high-growth firms, etc.) that work together formally and informally to increase performance in the local business environment (mason & brown, 2013, p. 9). at the same time, the isolated existence of actors is not enough to ensure a functioning ecosystem, as stam argues, entrepreneurial networks, leadership, finance services, talent, knowledge and support are at the heart economy and sociology 65 june no. 1/2021 of the ecosystem, but in addition to the presence of these elements, the interaction between them is important to determine the success of the ecosystem (stam, 2015, p. 1766). although there is no unanimously accepted definition for the notion of entrepreneurial ecosystem, the literature studied allows us to point out the following common features of this concept: ➢ a delineated geographical area; ➢ a set of elements/actors of the ecosystem; ➢ interaction/collaboration between elements; ➢ development, performance, economic rise. research on entrepreneurial ecosystems has evolved and there is relevant previous work on clusters, industrial districts and innovation clusters. (roundy, 2016) most studies have focused on large urban areas, such as silicon valley, boston, washington dc, and boulder colorado (feldman et al., 2005) and more recently chicago, pittsburgh, and richmond (harper-anderson, 2018). the mentioned research focused on the attributes of entrepreneurial ecosystems, focusing on different components, how they interact and what aspects allow for the growth and development of ecosystems. most studies that address the subject analyze the evolution and process by which an ecosystem was created in a particular locality or focus on conceptual ideas (feldman, 2014). research in the field has been criticized for focusing mainly on successful ecosystems in urban environments, but also for listing the attributes of the ecosystem without considering the causality and stages through which ecosystems could develop (roundy, 2016). there are also disagreements in the literature about the exact role of certain attributes, some for example – show that universities are extremely important, while others claim that they are less conclusive. the role of public policy in supporting and creating entrepreneurial ecosystems is also unclear (feld, 2012). the concept of entrepreneurial ecosystem has captured the attention of the authorities largely due to the fact that it is associated with the increase in the number of jobs and companies with high development potential (mason and brown, 2014). the key challenge for authorities trying to address entrepreneurial ecosystem policies is to identify the levers, pillars that contribute to the development of an ecosystem and direct efforts to create/strengthen them. at the same time, it should be pointed out that the existence of a large number of programs and projects to support entrepreneurship does not necessarily lead to a qualitative increase in the number of enterprises in a geographical area. respectively, the emphasis should be on the conditions under which companies operate or on creating a business-friendly ecosystem. the aim of this paper is to critically examine the role of public policies with a holistic approach in the formation of entrepreneurial ecosystems in the republic of moldova. literature review synthesizing theoretical approaches to the entrepreneurial ecosystem and the role of government policy the process of creating and developing the entrepreneurial ecosystem is a relatively new one, which has, in a short time, gained the attention of governments, development agencies, researchers and academia. organizations and institutions such as: the world bank, the world economic forum, babson college or the organization for economic cooperation and development, etc. approached the multilateral concept, presenting definitions, components and tools for assessing the entrepreneurial ecosystem. the concept of the entrepreneurial ecosystem encompasses the interconnection of social, political, economic and cultural components, which contribute to the creation and growth of innovative companies with major development potential. as originally defined by dubini, ecosystems (or as she calls them, environments) are characterized by the presence of family businesses and examples of success, diverse economies, strong business infrastructure, access to finance, entrepreneurial culture and public policies that stimulates the creation of added value (dubini, 1989). what distinguishes the concept from other approaches to economic policies is that the entrepreneurial ecosystem assigns the central role in creating the system to the entrepreneur. the entrepreneur is the one who constantly faces impediments, seeks solutions, identifies opportunities, he is the one who best perceives the environment in which he operates and its shortcomings. this "privatization" of entrepreneurship policy diminishes the role of government compared to traditional policy approaches thus, the role of the state remains just as important, except that its prerogative becomes the creation of conditions adapted to the needs of the ecosystem. (feld, 2012) theoretical and scientifical journal 66 june no. 1/2021 along with the key role of entrepreneurs in ecosystem development, the latest research in the field offers key components, the interaction between elements, access to the necessary resources, but also the role of authorities in these systems. feld offers nine attributes designed to create a thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem: leadership, infrastructure, support networks and services, partnership building events, government support, cooperation between large companies and smes with high growth potential, financial resources (table 1). table 1 nine attributes of a successful start-up community attribute description leadership strong group of entrepreneurs who are visible, accessible and committed to the region becoming a great place to start and grow a company. intermediaries many well-respected mentors and advisors giving back across all stages, sectors, demographics and geographies as well as a solid presence of effective, visible, well-integrated accelerators and incubators. network density deep, well-connected community of start-ups and entrepreneurs along with engaged and visible investors, advisors, mentors and supporters. optimally, these people and organizations cut across sectors, demographics and culture engagement. everyone must be willing to give back to their community. government strong government support for and understanding of start-ups to economic growth. additionally, supportive policies should be in place covering economic development, tax and investment vehicles. talent broad, deep talent pool for all levels of employees in all sectors and areas of expertise. universities are an excellent resource for start-up talent and should be well connected to community. support services professional services (legal, accounting, real estate, insurance and consulting) are integrated, accessible, effective and appropriately priced. engagement large number of events for entrepreneurs and community to connect, with highly visible and authentic participants (e.g. meet-ups, pitch days, startup weekends, boot camps, hackathons and competitions). companies large companies that are the anchor of a city should create specific departments and programs to encourage cooperation with high-growth start-ups. capital strong, dense and supportive community of venture capitalists, angels, seed investors and other forms of financing should be available, visible and accessible across sectors, demographics and geography. source: feld (2012, pp. 186-187). the entrepreneurial ecosystem is a complex mechanism, as described by feld (table 1), which includes the physical support infrastructure (clusters, business incubators, institutions, financiers, large companies, universities, etc.); support services (consulting, partnerships, access to finance, investors, meetings and communication, etc.); human resources (talents, successful entrepreneurs, experts, etc.). the element that defines a start-up community is the realization of the connection, interaction and a continuous connection between actors involved in the ecosystem. so, to have a functioning entrepreneurial ecosystem it is not enough to have talented people, institutions and support and consulting services, businesses and companies. it is imperative to ensure cooperation, to catalyze the process of connection between stakeholders, so the process includes the creation of the community, but also its growth. isenberg of babson college has written a series of articles on the concept of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. he argues that there is no exact formula for creating the ecosystem, but the authorities must follow the following nine principles for creating it: 1. do not try to imitate the silicon valley model; 2. create the ecosystem considering the conditions of the local environment; 3. involve the business environment from the start; 4. identify new ways of financing; 5. do not overload the clusters; facilitate the organic/natural development of ecosystems, accept ambitious projects; 6. favor businesses with high development potential; 7. involve entrepreneurs in decision-making within economy and sociology 67 june no. 1/2021 companies and institutions; 8. continuously address cultural change; 9. reform the legal, bureaucratic and regulatory framework (isenberg, 2010). at the same time, isenberg proposes six distinct areas of the entrepreneurial ecosystem: politics, finance, culture, support, human capital and markets (isenberg, 2011). these six areas are largely found in the paper prepared by the world economic forum (table 2). table 2 entrepreneurial ecosystem pillars and their components pillar components accessible markets domestic market: large/medium/small companies as customers and governments as customer. foreign market: large/medium/small companies as customers and governments as customer. human capital/workforce management talent, technical talent, entrepreneurial company experience, outsourcing availability and access to immigrant workforce. funding & finance friends and family, angel investors, private equity, venture capital and access to debt. support systems/mentors mentors/advisors, professional services, incubators/accelerators and networks of entrepreneurial peers. government & regulatory framework ease of starting a business, tax incentives, business-friendly legislation/policies, access to basic infrastructure, access to telecommunications/broadband and access to transport. education & training available workforce with pre-university education, available workforce with university education and those with entrepreneurship-specific training. major universities as catalysts promoting a culture of respect for entrepreneurship, playing a key role in idea-formation for new companies and playing a key role in providing graduates to new companies. cultural support tolerance for risk and failure, preference for self-employment, success stories/role models, research culture, positive image of entrepreneurship and celebration of innovation. source: (doing business, f.a.2013,pp.6-7). the pillars proposed by the world economic forum for a successful ecosystem focus on the presence of key factors (resources), such as human capital, finance and services; formal (government and regulatory framework) and informal (cultural support) institutions that allow entrepreneurs access to internal and external markets. the model of the entrepreneurial ecosystem proposed by the world economic forum emphasizes the creation of the entrepreneurial culture and the positive image of the businessman, the promotion of talents, of qualified human resources. in addition to access to finance, support from the authorities and the existence of accessible markets, there is a need to create a culture that promotes entrepreneurial values. data sources and used methods the research methodology is based on the critical analysis of public policy documents on sme support and data provided by reports of international organizations (world bank, world economic forum, organization for economic co-operation and development, etc.) on the country’s level of economic development, its business environment, human capital, etc. the results of own research and discussions traits of the existing legal framework, oriented on the development and support of the business environment in the republic of moldova. inspired by international research and international good practice, which confirms the importance of entrepreneurial development for sustainable economic growth, the authorities implement policies and programs to support the small and medium-sized enterprise (sme) sector. so far, these policies are mainly aimed at increasing the number of enterprises and quantitative indicators on their activity, being mainly aimed at providing support in the form of funding and theoretical and scientifical journal 68 june no. 1/2021 training for narrowly selected segments of entrepreneurs, such as: emigrants, young people, women, etc. (table 3) the main authority empowered to implement projects and programs on sme development is the organization for the development of the small and medium enterprises sector (odimm). odimm is a public, non-commercial, non-profit institution created by government decision no. 538 of may 17, 2007, which operates in coordination with the ministry of economy and with other central and local authorities, business associations, business support providers and smes. table 3 projects aimed at the development of target groups of entrepreneurs target group project/program emigrants "pare 1 + 1" program for attracting remittances in the economy youth “start for youth – a sustainable business at your home” national program “joint opportunities in business for youth” (jobs4youth) project „lead your way to business” project national program for youth economic empowerment (pnaet) women “women in business” national pilot-program “business academy for women” (baw) project source: developed by author the development and support of the business environment in the republic of moldova is a priority for the authorities, being stipulated in the national development strategy "moldova 2020": 8 solutions for economic growth and poverty reduction; strategy for the development of the small and medium enterprises sector for the years 2012–2020; national strategy for attracting investments and promoting exports for the years 2016-2020. these strategic documents address the evolution of the business environment from a quantitative and less qualitative perspective, thus the successful implementation of the small and medium enterprise sector development strategy for 2012–2020 (gd of the republic of moldova on the approval of the small business development strategy and mediumsized enterprises for the years 2012-2020 no. 685 of 13.09.2012), was to contribute to: increasing the number of smes to 25 per 1000 inhabitants, increasing the number of employees in the sector, increasing the sector's contribution to gdp and increasing the sme contribution in total exports. “traditional” government entrepreneurial policies, as classified by mason and brown, address the development of a particular type of enterprise or a distinct geographical area (mason & brown, 2013). many of the initiatives and programs of the government of the republic of moldova are addressed to rural businesses and economically disadvantaged areas. business incubators were created, financing programs, training and support for the rural environment were developed. however, these initiatives have a low impact on regional economic development and do not help reduce regional disparities, the largest share, over 65% of businesses are created and operate in chisinau, generating over 70% of sales revenues in the country and approx. 94% of the income tax on entrepreneurial activity. entrepreneurs do not create businesses because support and consulting services are available, rather these services are requested as a result of the existence and activity of entrepreneurs. although these services are urgently needed, they are not enough to rapidly develop the economy of a region or country (lichtenstein & lyons, 2001). “traditional” policies usually aim to increase the number of enterprises, but do not focus on the quality or potential of these companies (figure 1). a different set of policies is needed than those aimed at setting up businesses in general. simply focusing policy efforts on increasing the number of new businesses has little effect, as very few companies subsequently have the potential to develop and create added value. the financial resources provided by the state through support programs are aimed at stimulating certain categories of entrepreneurs, such as: young people, women, exporters, etc.; or to the development of certain sectors: production, information technologies, agriculture, etc. this fragmented approach in developing support policies and programs only partially meets the needs of entrepreneurs. economy and sociology 69 june no. 1/2021 figure 1. types of entrepreneurial policy approach source: developed by author. at the same time, it is not clear whether the successful development of business in certain regions is due to state-sponsored policies or other favorable environmental factors and what these factors are. what is certain is the need to treat the business environment in the republic of moldova from a new perspective, the introduction of a complex, comprehensive and integrated approach, which can be ensured by creating an entrepreneurial ecosystem that meets the real needs and problems entrepreneurs face daily. this new approach to business policy-making places little emphasis on maximizing quantitative indicators, giving priority to business quality and viability by creating a system, an environment in which businesses thrive. the objective of ecosystem policies, with a holistic approach, focuses on improving the environment in which companies operate. this is a challenging goal, since it is not clear how the authorities can intervene to create entrepreneurial ecosystems and how they can adapt the support provided to meet the diverse needs of entrepreneurs. presentation of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova based on the analysis of international rankings. the synthesis of the specialized literature offers us a vision on the approaches and elements that form an entrepreneurial ecosystem. it should be noted that there is no universal approach, or specific elements that can be applied to develop one ecosystem or another. each region, country or locality must create its own model and address the specific problems of entrepreneurs in that geographical area. thus, following the analysis of the literature, we aimed to create a model of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova, adapted to the needs of local enterprises and in accordance with the priorities of public policy documents in the entrepreneurial field (figure 2). fragmentary approach •support programmes and policies for some selected categories of entrepreneurs and geographical zones; •policy objectives are to maximize quantitative indicators (number of enterprises, jobs, sales revenue, etc.); •forms of financial support (grants, subsidies, tax incentives); •innovation and research and development policies for a certain category of enterprises; •top-down policy making. holistic approach •focusing on the needs of entrepreneurs, regardless of category and geographical area; •policy objectives lie in focusing on qualitative indicators (performance, economic impact, development potential, value added creation); •forms of support (creation and development of networking networks, co-working spaces); •adapting the financial support depending on the stage of development of the enterprise and diversifying the financing modalities; •development of innovation systems in all sectors of the economy; •policy-making by combining "topdown" and "bottom-up" principles. theoretical and scientifical journal 70 june no. 1/2021 entrepreneurial ecosystem pillars figure 1. pillars of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova source: developed by author. six main pillars have been determined, which characterize and underlie the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova. these components are: (1) the regulatory framework; (2) access to finance; (3) support infrastructure; (4) human resources; (5) the market; (6) entrepreneurial culture. identifying the components of the ecosystem is a first step in quantifying a vision of the directions in which measures should be taken for the efficiency and development of smes. the second stage of the research aims to conduct an assessment of the current ecosystem in the republic of moldova, using the method of analyzing the results of international rankings, conducted by organizations such as: world bank, world economic forum, babson college or organization for economic cooperation and development, etc. following the evaluation, we will be able to determine the degree of development of the ecosystem and elaborate a set of principles, which will be the basis for the elaboration of public policies oriented towards the creation of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. the central role in ensuring the functionality and viability of the entrepreneurial ecosystem belongs to the authorities, through the elaboration and appropriate adjustment of the regulatory framework. the state is the one that has the levers, mechanisms and tools able to majorly influence entrepreneurial activity. despite the efforts of the authorities, international rankings show us the modest performance of entrepreneurial policies and programs. according to the “doing business” report, conducted annually by the world bank, the business environment in the republic of moldova in 2019 has worsened compared to 2018, decreasing by 3 positions in the ranking. the most significant deterioration was recorded for the indicators: "management of building permits" and "execution of contracts" (-7 positions each)(doing business, f.a.2019). moldova's economic freedom score is 62.0 in the "economic freedom index", making its economy the 87th freest in 2020. its overall score increased by 2.9 points compared to 2019, with improved scores for government integrity and government spending. moldova ranks 40th among the 45 countries in the european region, and its overall score is well below the regional average and approximately equal to the world average. „the global innovation index”, published by cornell university, insead (european institute of business administration) and wipo (world intellectual property organization), in partnership with other organizations and institutions, provides detailed metrics on the performance of innovation in 126 countries. in 2019, compared to 2018, the republic of moldova registers a decrease of 10 positions in the ranking, being by far a country that actively applies innovations in economic fields (dutta et al., 2019). entrepreneurial culture market human resources support infrastructure access to finance regulatory framework economy and sociology 71 june no. 1/2021 the second component, access to finance, continues to be a major impediment for entrepreneurs in the republic of moldova, including in surveys conducted among entrepreneurs in the country. international rankings tell us about this unfortunate aspect that creates problems in the development of the business environment. in the “doing business” report, the indicator on the ease of obtaining loans is decreasing by two positions, falling from 42nd place in 2018 to 44th place in 2019 (doing business, f.a.). “the global innovation index” report indicates a decrease by 10 positions in 2018, 79th place, compared to 2017, 89th place, in terms of obtaining loans (dutta et al., 2019). the support infrastructure in the republic of moldova is gaining an increasing role in the development of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. this priority is included in the small and medium enterprise sector development strategy for 2012-2020, creating business incubators, innovative incubators, business hubs, clusters and business support centers. their role and mission is to inform, train, facilitate access to finance, offer spaces at preferential prices, etc. authorities are focusing on creating support infrastructure in regions, especially in economically disadvantaged ones. the problem is that there is a risk of these infrastructure objects not achieving their purpose if there is no demand for the services they provide. the low demand is determined by various reasons: migration of the population to urban areas; immigration; low level of trust in state institutions; lack of social, economic and other perspectives; and so on. for these reasons, there is a need to address problems in an integrated way and to offer complex solutions, which aim in particular at creating favorable economic and social conditions for the population. staff is the only resource in a company that has the ability to increase its value over time, unlike all other resources, which wear out if not physically, then morally. (pavalachi, 2011) as in the case personnel of an enterprise, the human capital of a country is its actual and real value. the human development index, developed by the united nations development program, was created to emphasize that people and their capabilities should be the key criteria for assessing a country's development, not just quantitative growth. within this ranking, the republic of moldova ranks 107th out of 189 countries in 2019, aiming at achieving the key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, education and income level. the republic of moldova has improved its position in the ranking, climbing to the 107th place in 2019, compared to 2018, when it held the 112th place. (undp, 2020) the social, economic and political context directly influences entrepreneurship, while social values and personal characteristics have an indirect influence but are still no less important. culture and, specifically, social norms and positive attitudes towards entrepreneurship, have been recognized as a key component of entrepreneurial ecosystems (isenberg, 2011). entrepreneurial culture does not occur by chance, it is cultivated, developed and promoted by academia, authorities, international organizations and civil society. it is important to present entrepreneurial activity in a positive light, giving it the appropriate status. at the same time, we need to encourage initiatives and identify the reasons for starting a business, in order to meet the expectations of entrepreneurs. the last pillar of the entrepreneurial ecosystem is the market. it is difficult to imagine the existence of a competitive and developed economy without a functioning sales market and without healthy connections with foreign sales markets. in this regard, too, there are shortcomings, which must be removed in order for entrepreneurs to market their services and products at competitive prices on both the local and international markets. the “global competitiveness” report indicates the low level of market development, 111th place out of 141 countries, in 2019 (schwab, 2019). the components of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova assessed in terms of international rankings reflect a modest development and low efficiency of public instruments/policies aimed at improving and developing small and medium enterprises. authorities need to be aware that the development of some regions and the stagnation of others have their origins in the level of development of the ecosystem. the same support instruments, public policies and development programs applied in two different regions create a different impact. therefore, public policies aimed at developing a functioning entrepreneurial ecosystem must be based on the following distinct principles (mason & brown, 2013): 1. each ecosystem needs a different approach, adapted to the needs of local businesses. there is no universal model of entrepreneurial ecosystems. 2. the entrepreneurial ecosystem should result from economic areas, which are already successful. theoretical and scientifical journal 72 june no. 1/2021 which means stimulating industries with proven capabilities and viability over time, that create added value, innovation and smart specialization; 3. the development of public policies aimed at the growth and development of the entrepreneurial ecosystem will ensure the combination of "bottom-up" and "top-down" principles; 4. government initiatives need to have an integrated approach, as isolated support for specific groups of entrepreneurs tends to be ineffective in the long run. encouraging more people to create startups is likely to have a low impact, if many of them are registered in areas with low economic growth, such as most rural areas in the republic of moldova. the introduction of entrepreneurship education will be ineffective if graduates move to more favorable business environments, usually migrating or roaming to urban areas. each component of the entrepreneurial ecosystem is equally important, therefore if one of them is missing or not addressed properly, the development of the ecosystem will be negatively influenced. consequently, the implementation of entrepreneurial policy must be holistic; 5. the approach to public policies must be constantly evolving and adapting, as entrepreneurial ecosystems are naturally complex, dynamic and must grow, develop organically, and their evolution cannot be accelerated by direct intervention. therefore, the forms of state support will be in line with the level of maturity of the ecosystem. for example, at the emergent stage of the ecosystem, the emphasis can be on supporting business start-ups, but as the ecosystem matures, the needs of companies change, with support services needed to develop processes, train and improve human resources, support internationalization. and access to financial resources; 6. it is important to recognize the distinction between smes and entrepreneurial policies. sme development policies have a selective and fragmented approach, focusing on increasing the number of start-ups. entrepreneurial policy, on the other hand, focuses on supporting businesses with high growth potential, i.e. on increasing qualitative indicators; practical recommendations for adjusting the entrepreneurial policy in the republic of moldova the republic of moldova is making modest progress in developing a sustainable and inclusive entrepreneurial ecosystem. as a result, the authorities must continue their efforts to create an environment in which the number of companies can grow, but above all to focus on companies with accelerated growth potential, in order to increase their quality as well. as mentioned above, it is necessary to approach entrepreneurial policies holistically and to target those elements of the ecosystem, which reflect a marked deterioration. the analysis based on the international rankings of the national business ecosystem shows shortcomings in the following chapters, to which we propose a set of recommendations: i. increasing access to finance ➢ adoption of the draft law regulating risk capital, which has been inactive since 2015; ➢ increasing the access to financing of enterprises with increased potential for growth and internationalization, disregarding the field of activity; ➢ stimulating the use by the financing institutions of the guarantees offered by the credit guarantee fund and implicitly reducing the burden for entrepreneurs on the need to pledge their own assets. ii. promoting the development of entrepreneurial culture ➢ inclusion of the european competence framework in the field of entrepreneurship in the 2019-2020 curricular reform plans; ➢ promoting the examples of success and talents, as well as the positive profile of the entrepreneur in society; ➢ approaching the option to become an entrepreneur for students of all higher education institutions in the republic of moldova. iii. development of business environment support infrastructure at national level ➢ currently the public organization responsible for the implementation of programs and projects in the field of entrepreneurial development is the organization for the development of small and medium enterprises (odimm), based in chisinau. we recommend opening an odimm branch in the north and south of the country in order to more easily and efficiently meet the needs of entrepreneurs in those areas and create entrepreneurial ecosystems in areas. ➢ continuing to support development: clusters, business hubs, business incubators and coworking spaces. economy and sociology 73 june no. 1/2021 conclusions the creation and development of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the republic of moldova is not an easy task, given that the assessment of ecosystem components shows a deterioration of business conditions and the existence of various problems: limited access to finance, population emigration, small market, accentuated regional disparity, etc. the authorities, with the support of external development partners, are making continuous efforts to improve the conditions of the business environment and stimulate the creation of as many enterprises as possible throughout the country. despite these efforts, for the most part, over 65% of businesses are created and operate in chisinau, which shows that businesses are created and operate successfully not due to state support. beyond support, there are other stimulating and motivating conditions that determine people to start a business, and these conditions are determined by the presence of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. the existence of functional elements of the ecosystem that stimulate and encourage companies to operate. the entrepreneurial ecosystem approach introduces a new vision, the role of the external business environment being very important and of a major influence on the business activity. the aim of this research is to elucidate the role of entrepreneurial policies with a holistic approach to the creation of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. public policies need to be reoriented from quantitative growth of enterprises to qualitative growth. smes with high growth potential are the ones that create: innovations, added value, but also competitive products / services on the national and international market. the integrated approach to entrepreneurial policies especially encourages companies with high growth potential. they do not distinguish between types of business, being supported by companies from all sectors of the economy. the support provided focuses on connecting entrepreneurs with institutions and organizations that will directly contribute to their growth and development. the approach to entrepreneurial policies must be holistic, but not focused on business categories or narrow segments of entrepreneurs. the overall aim of the policies will be to ensure a fertile environment and facilitate the connection between smes and other components of the entrepreneurial ecosystem, in order to facilitate innovation, access to information and financing. references 1. cohen, b. 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(2017). exploring the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the field of entrepreneurial support: a multi-level approach. international journal of entrepreneurship and small business, 31(1), 47. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijesb.2017.083847 16. world bank group (ed.). (2020). economy profile of central african republic: doing business 2020: comparing regulations in 190 economies. world bank group. article history received 22 june 2020 accepted 05 november 2020 theoretical and scientifical journal 36 no. 1 / 2019 experience of the input-output models application to the moldovan economy elvira naval1, doctor of informatics, coordinating researcher, institute of mathematics and computer science “vladimir andrunachievici”, republic of moldova the main goal of this article is to present an overview of the input-output models which have been applied to moldovan economy development study. we examined: static input-output model, dynamic inputoutput model restricted by limited energy resources, and the markov chain approach based on the inputoutput tables. all these models have been examined using statistic data referring to the input-output table, constructed on the base of 19 and 16 aggregated branches of the national economy. static and dynamic optimization models were formulated, simulation calculation was done and analysed. input-output table balancing problem was solved using ras method. for dynamic model matrix of the investment coefficients was constructed. the emphasis was put on the problem of applying the theory of markov chain for examination of the 19 and 16 branches in the framework of the input-output model for republic of moldova. a square exchange matrix of order nn  has been constructed. every branch was considered as one state of the markov chain with n states. we introduced a new )1( n -th absorption state so that the examined matrix became of the order )1()1(  nn . the obtained transition matrix – probabilities matrix has been used for forecasting. keywords: input-output models, static optimization model, dynamic optimization model, markov chain, exchange matrix, investment matrix, transition matrix, forecasting. obiectivul principal al acestui articol constă în prezentarea unei sinteze asupra modelelor interramurale utilizate în studierea dezvoltării economice a moldovei. au fost examinate modelul de optimizare static şi modelul de optimizare dinamic restricţionat de resurse energetic limitate, la fel şi abordarea stocastică bazată pe lanţurile markov, obţinute în baza tabelelor intrări-ieşiri. modelele menţionate au fost dotate cu date statistice în vederea construirii tabelelor intrări-ieşiri, având la bază 19 şi 16 ramuri agregate ale economiei naţionale. modelul static şi modelul dinamic de optimizare au fost formulate, calculele de simulare în baza lor au fost efectuate şi analizate. problema balansării tabelelor intrări-ieşiri a fost soluţionată prin aplicarea metodei ras. pentru modelul dinamic s-a construit matricea coeficienţilor investiţionali. accentul a fost pus pe problema aplicării lanţurilor marcov la examinarea a 19 şi 16 ramuri în cadrul modelului intrări-ieşiri pentru republica moldova. matricea pătrată a cheltuielilor materiale directe de ordinul nn  a fost construită. fiecare ramură fiind considerată ca o stare a unui lanţ markov cu n stări. a fost adăugată o stare absorbantă încât matricea de tranziţie s-a transformat într-o matrice de ordinul )1()1(  nn . matricea de tranziţie obţinută – matricea de probabilităţi, s-a folosit în scopuri de previziune. cuvinte-cheie: modele intrări-ieşiri, model de optimizare static, model de optimizare dinamic, lanţuri markov, matricea cheltuielilor materiale directe, matricea investiţională, matricea de tranziţie, previziune. главная цель настоящей статьи заключается в предоставлении обзора межотраслевых моделей, используемых для изучения экономического развития молдовы. были рассмотрены оптимизационная статическая модель и динамическая модель с ограничениями на энергетические ресурсы, а также стохастическая модель, основывающаяся на цепях маркова, построенных на основе таблиц затраты-выпуск. рассмотренные модели были снабжены статистическими данными, необходимыми для построения таблиц затраты-выпуск по 19 и 16 агрегированным отраслям национальной экономики. были сформулированы статическая и динамическая оптимизационные модели, по которым были проведены и проанализированы имитационные расчеты. таблицы затраты-выпуск были сбалансированы с помощью метода ras. для динамической модели была построена матрица коэффициентов инвестиционных затрат. основной акцент был поставлен на применение марковских цепей для изучения 1 © elvira naval, elvira.naval@math.md mailto:elvira.naval@math.md economy and sociology 37 no. 1/ 2019 19 и 16 агрегированных отраслей в рамках модели затраты-выпуск для республики молдова. каждая отрасль ассоциировалась с одним из состояний цепи маркова с n состояниями. к рассматриваемой цепи добавилось еще одно, абсорбированное состояние так, что переходная матрица приобрела порядок )1()1(  nn . построенная переходная матрица – вероятностная матрица была использована в целях прогнозирования. ключевые слова: модели затраты-выпуск, статическая оптимизационная модель, динамическая оптимизационная модель, цепи маркова, технологическая матрица, инвестиционная матрица, переходная матрица, прогнозирование. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-03 jel classification: c61, c68 udc: 330.45 introduction. for empirical applications, the input-output table has the same importance as a mathematical model. most analyses start from tables in money units and devote a great deal of effort to making sure that the total money value of each row is equal to that of the corresponding column before deriving a coefficient matrix. by contrast, leontief [1-4] stressed the technological interpretation of each column of coefficients and urged the collaboration of economists with engineers and other technological experts to project, column by column, coefficient matrices representing hypothetical changes in technologies in different industries based on the information in physical units. scientific approach is based on the modeling modern theory, relied on the input-output tables approach. interbranch models are made up from matrices of direct material expenditure of one producing industry for other producing industries. method for interbranch balances construction has been proposed and implemented by russian scientist vasilii leontief [1-2]. in the year 1972 v. leontief was awarded the nobel prize in economic science “for elaboration of the input-output method and its application for solving important economic problems”. in time interbranch models passed through spectacular evolution, being studied both deterministic and stochastic models; static and dynamic models with lagged capital investment (one or more years), simulation and optimization models. interbranch models are largely applied to economic development examination taking in account environmental medium. such models have been used for world and regional economy evaluation, as a forecasting and indicative planning tool for medium and long term. now these models are used in many industrial developed countries, but also in some less developed countries. the purpose and scientific basis of the research the present research deals with the overview of author`s research experience in the interbranch modeling and the last research related to the markov chain applications relied on input-output table. they studied deterministic static [6-8] and dynamic [9-10] optimization models, general equilibrium models, stochastic models [11]. empirical researches, simulation calculations and obtained results analysis have been effectuated. father, general theory of the input-output models will be followed [18]. scientific basis of the research is the input-output leontief model [4], which consists of n industries n,...,2,1 . the i th industry requires an amount 10  ij a of goods (in physical units) from industry j to produce 1 dollar's worth of goods. the external demand for the industries goods, in physical units, is given by the vector ),..,,( 21 n yyyy  . let a be the )( nxn matrix of inter-industry coefficients ij a , the industries produce total amounts given by the vector ),..,,( 21 n xxxx  and f is the matrix )( kxn of factor input per output (one row for each factor), and f is total factor use. then the basic static input-output model looks as: yxai  )( , or yaix 1 )(   (1) .fxf  (2) the amounts of goods which the industries will need just to meet their internal demands, is given by the vector xa . in order to meet the external demand y and the internal demands the industries must produce total amounts given by a vector .),..,,( 21 n xxxx  which satisfies the equation yxax  . the inverse matrix 1 )(   ai has been called the leontief inverse, also known as the multiplier matrix or matrix of multipliers. theoretical and scientifical journal 38 no. 1 / 2019 equations (1) and (2) are a quantity input-output model, and the coefficients in a and f matrices are ratios of physical units. if y is given, the solution vector x represents the quantities of sector`s outputs. assume that each industry’s output is measured in a unit appropriate for that sector. a mixed-unit flow table accommodates variables measured in different units and can be constructed with no conceptual difficulty. in the coefficient matrix a derived from such a flow table, the thij  element is equal to the th ij element of the flow table divided by the th ij row total. so, mixed unit a matrix may be constructed as columns of coefficients. equations (1) and (2) represent an abbreviation of the basic input-output model. the full model involves two additional equations (where )(.  indicates transposition): orfvaip   )( 11 )()(   aifaivp  (3) fxxvyp   (4) here, p is the vector of goods unit prices, v is value-added, the total money value of factor inputs per unit of output, and  is the vector of factors prices. equation (4), called the income equation, is derived from equations (1) and (3), the gdp identity assures that the value of final deliveries is equal to total value-added the leontief inverse is strictly positive, i.e., each element is positive. it follows from basic economic logic which requires that an increase 0 y in final demand in equation (1) should result in an increase 0 x in total output. if the matrix 1 )(   ai was not strictly positive, this logic could be violated. in consequence, equation (1) always has a solution 0x for 0y . there are a number of equivalent statements about a : 1. 0)( 1   ai . 2.   321 )( aaaiai (the series  k a is convergent). 3. the successive principal minors of 1 )(   ai are positive. 4. there exists a choice of units such that all row sums or all column sums of a are smaller than unity. 5. the matrix a has a dominant eigenvalue 10,   . 6. a dominant eigenvalue  of a is larger if one element of a is increased, and  gets smaller if one element of a is decreased. statement 2 is important for distinguishing the industries contributing output in different phases of production. it says that output  )( ayaayyx so the quantity y must be produced, plus ay which is the vector of input to produce y, etc. statement 3 is the well-known hawkins-simon condition, which assures that each subsystem is productive; that is, each subgroup of industries ,...,, kji requires less input from the economic system than it produces in terms of outputs. according to statement 4, the brauer-solow condition, value-added in each sector is positive in coefficient matrices derived from inputoutput tables in (nominal) money values. assuming that the matrix describes a viable economy, this property assures that if output is measured in any chosen physical units, there exists a set of prices such that each industry has a positive value-added (i.e., revenue left to pay for factor inputs). the dominant eigenvalue  is a measure of the size of the intermediate outputs produced in the economy relative to total production. that is,  indicates the net surplus of an economy in the sense that the larger  (within the bounds described by statement 5), the smaller the net output. the surplus so defined can be consumed, invested for growth, devoted to environmental protection, etc. statement 6 is useful for interpreting the role of technological change. for example, a technological innovation that reduces the need for certain intermediate inputs results in a lower dominant eigenvalue for the new coefficient matrix, leaving more surplus. innovations that are not cost-reducing, on the other hand, will result in a larger  . input-output analysis can effectively identify those industries where increased technological efficiency would have a significant economy-wide impact. thus,  is a kind of efficiency indicator in that of two matrices describing two different economies, the one with a larger dominant eigenvalue represents the economy that is less efficient economically although it may have other desirable features. eigenvalues also play an important role in dynamic models, where they have an interpretation economy and sociology 39 no. 1/ 2019 in terms of rates of growth or contraction and profit rates. if the economy does not produce a surplus (i.e., 0y in equation (1)), we deal with a closed model of the following form .axx  in this special case, a has a dominant eigenvalue equal to unity, and total output x is the perronfrobenius eigenvector of a . to solve this model for x means to solve it for this eigenvector. the solution provides only the production proportions; the scale has to be determined in other ways, such as external knowledge about the size of certain elements of x . above we interpreted the th i column of the input coefficient matrices a and f as representing the technology to make good i and claimed that the coefficients represented an average technology. this interpretation allows for the existence of differences in technology among enterprises in the same industry. the use of an average avoids the complication of having to distinguish products and technologies where the distinction does not add much useful information for the purposes of the analysis. in terms of the model, it means that a one-to-one relation is established between the typical commodities and also average technology for producing it. suppose a new technology becomes available to produce the thi  good. the th i columns of a and f will also be balanced if the new technology is adopted by this industry. if two technologies are available for producing the th i good, the model can determine which technology is the lower-cost choice in terms of the overall use of factors. equation (3) shows that the cost of factor use is equal to xv  or fx  . if the new technology is cheaper in terms of overall factor inputs, it is more efficient than the old one and in principle will be installed. because each price is the sum of the costs of the primary resources used directly and indirectly in its production, introducing the new technology will assure minimal cost. these considerations enable to formalize the economically most efficient choice of technology as a minimization problem. the non-substitution theorem formulated and proved in [7, 9] identifies the choice among several alternative technologies that minimizes the use of priced resources for each product. it can be shown that for a particular final demand y , there is a unique, cost-minimizing set of technologies, provided that the possibility of factor constraints is ignored. there are three types of impact, propagated through economy: direct, indirect, and induced that could be estimated by input-output models. economy wide shocks deal with changing in the initial expenditure. impact of the input changing between industries contributing to modifications in one or more specific technologies can be estimated. data sources and utilized methods direct material expenditure coefficients matrices were constructed on the national accounts base in constant prices [8]. direct investment expenditure coefficients matrix and limiting coefficients were constructed for the dynamic optimization model with one or more lags. leontief inverse matrix was determined, markov chain was constructed on the base of direct material expenditure coefficients matrix, transposing input-output matrices into transition one. optimization methods, solver application, ras method software (proper elaboration) were utilized. 1. own results and discussions 1.1. static input-output model for the republic of moldova input-output table elaboration in the republic of moldova has been started since ussr by the state planning institute. our country at that time has occupied leading position at the diverse dimensions input-output table elaboration. after tearing of the ussr, this task was incumbent on the institute of the market problems and to the national bureau of statistics. at present, principal elements of the inputoutput tables could be extracted from national accounts. regretfully, from the year 2015 this data for input-output table elaborating was ceased. researching of the interbranch models based on the input-output tables has been effectuated by the institutes of the academy of sciences of moldova such as: institute of mathematics and computer science “vladimir andrunachievici”, national institute of economic research and the institute of energetic, which shows a major interest in the interbranch models examination. relying on the data in current prices for the 23 branches from the national accounts of the republic of moldova, years 1996-2014, input-output table in constant prices in their classic form was constructed. namely, for mentioned years, information was selected and processed. this data has formed i-iii quadrant of the interbranch balances in constant prices. theoretical and scientifical journal 40 no. 1 / 2019 having input-output tables for year 2014 in the structure of the n (23) examined branches the model of the economic development will be formulated and solved. four branches: public administration and defense (l), associate activities not included in other activities (o91), recreation, culture and sport activities (o92) and other activities and services (o93) are not productive branches. having zero over the line, these branches consume only, so do not affect the matrix of direct material expenditure, thus may be excluded from the interbranch balance. the interbranch static and dynamic models have been studied in [6-11], based on it, much simulation was done. further static optimization problem based on the inputoutput table for the year 2014 will be formulated. an input-output table (year 2014) for the 19 productive aggregate industries of the moldovan economy is principalelement when static optimization problem is formulated. our country being in profound scarcity of the proper sources of energy, is imposed to import it in sufficient large proportions for covering own necessities. as a result, both growing of the world prices of energy resources and internal tariffs growing, contribute to the domestic prices of the energy resources changing. this in its turn affects both production sector in total and households dramatically influencing country energy security and wellbeing of the population, being on the limit of poverty. so, the problem of energy tariffs growth studying, in this context has major importance. interbranch balances can be very useful in the structure of 19 productive aggregate industries, from which aggregate industry of electric energy, gase and water being one on the whole based on import. so, we will research the influence of the energy tariffs growing on the economy as a whole and on the population in special using interbranch static optimization models. suppose that energy tariffs grow 1.5 times, then components of technology vector will grow at the same rate. in such circumstances, what will be the impact on gross domestic product? knowing output volume x in the one specified year t having modified electric industry technology vector (e), mentioned problem will be formulated as a problem of final consumption optimization. it can be mentioned that both elements of the input-output tables, output vector, and final consumption vector are measured in constant prices. so, the following static optimization problem needs to be solved: maximize final consumption when energy resources tariffs are increasing (changing vector-column (e) and fixing output volume vector value). then formalized model is written as:   19 1 max i i y , (5) subject to the following restriction xyai   1 )( , (6) here x is the output vector volume which is known and y is the final demand vector, that must be maximized or   19 1 max i i x (7) subject to the following restriction yaxx  . (8) let`s examined matrices of the direct material expenditure a in money values. elements of these matrices are less than one and its sum along the column and line is strictly smaller than one. matrix a , constructed from statistical data [8] for year 2014 satisfied partly the earlier exposed particularities, namely, the sum along the column is less than one, but the sum along the line for some industries for example (processing industry) is greater than one. in such circumstances inverse matrix existence do not done. such phenomena implies problem in satisfying restriction (6). this imposed to done simulations based on the problem (7), changing prices following restriction (8). 1.2. simulation`s calculations table 1 expenditure changes in respect to price modification expenditure e 28500717 2843392 31307171 30698998 30359116 29846954 29211061 28548610 29411015 28962435 resources x 221303904 4298115 1836452 192390282 201135294 218661243 221303904 227370333 236115346 244860358 prices 1 1,05 1,1 1,15 1,2 1,25 1,3 1,4 1,45 1,5 iterations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 source: author`s calculations. economy and sociology 41 no. 1/ 2019 simulation calculations effectuated in concordance with price modifications demonstrate that price growing can be only applied till 1,3 limit, after that some components of the gross domestic product become negative, challenging economy collapse. figure 1. resource modification relative to price changing source: author`s calculations. figure 2. modifications in gross domestic product relative to price changing source: author`s calculations. 1.3. conclusions it must be mentioned that through this study, the utility of the proposed tool, based on the input-output tables constructed on the money flows in constant prices [8] for years 1996-2014, was demonstrated. two static optimization models (1)-(2) based on the data from year 2014 have been solved. the first model, given satisfied interbranch balance restrictions, starts with known volume of production in order to maximize final consumption. the second model deals with production volume maximizing, given known final consumption and interbranch restrictions satisfied. calculations results have demonstrated that upper limits of the price increasing is equal to 30%, after that some components of the final demand become negative, which ascertained that final demand can not be satisfied. using interbranch balance for 2014 year, it could be possible to demonstrate that energy resources tariffs growth, have negative impact on the gross domestic product, which influences both economy as a hole and population especially. such analysis can be effectuated for every industry from x10 x9 x8 x7 x6 x5 x4 x3 x2 y0 y1 y2 y3 y4 y5 y6 y7 y8 y9 theoretical and scientifical journal 42 no. 1 / 2019 those 19 examined in accordance with proposed objective. it is very unfortunate to know that beginning from year 2015 interbranch tables elaboration in the classical manner was ceased. another examined aspect is referred to the input-output tables unbalance namely that sum over line may be greater than one, as result it is not equal to the column sum, which is less than one. this industries utilized resources exceeding more production volume, using in plenty import resources (especially energy resources) surpassing domestic production. input-output table balancing problem is possible to be solved by using ras method. next, ras method description and application follows. 1.4. input-output matrices balancing table 2 sum of the direct material expenditure matrices coefficients along the columns and lines aggregate branches  i ij a  j ij a i x i x  i iij xa i x  j jij xa a agriculture, hunting economy and forestry 0.65 0.47 8194443 4307985 3617782 b fishing 0.01 0.45 27364.6 14925 26046 c mining 0.44 0.52 303098.6 145482 1449980 d processing industry 5.94 0.74 15657828 4022168 20667046 e water distribution; waste administration 0.72 0.67 1985815 650721 1498246 f construction 0.39 0.79 5660514 1185158 822897 g wholesale and retail trading 0.07 0.46 8310259 4528646 237941 h hotels and restaurants 0.16 0.57 892875.4 384848 287496 160-63 transport and storing 0.63 0.70 5439666 1636009 2207758 164 communications 0.45 0.36 2427941 1560084 862180 j financial activity 0.35 0.26 2011364 1492015 934737 k70 estate transactions 0.65 0.44 3103366 1735042 1474654 k71 cars and equipments rent 0.02 0.39 38119.96 23372 16664 k72 computers and adjoint activity 0.13 0.48 743423.5 387512 141666 k73 investigations elaborations 0.05 0.34 173374.3 113617 66855 k74 other commercial activities 0.31 0.55 1611441 719303 862941 l public administration and defense 0 0.33 2049550 1376683 73720 m education 0.03 0.29 2680886 1884680 47213 n health and social assistance 0.02 0.38 2241138 1391747 121516 o90 recovering and waste removing 0.08 0.32 306535.1 208836 0 o91 activities not included in other categories 0 0.55 558130.2 253929 0 o92 recreation, cultural and sport activities 0 0.55 744108.9 336151 0 o93 other activities and services 0 0.49 277459.9 141804 3617782 source: author`s calculations. table 2 offers calculations of the sum direct material expenditure matrices coefficients along the columns and lines, effectuated in accordance with model data. showed noticed from this table that column sum over the column is less than one for all examined branches but sum over line of the processing industry exceeds much more one unit, in such a manner encroach upon productivity property of the direct material expenditure coefficients matrices. second observation certified that double accounting rule don`t have to stand. to surpass this phenomena one will e appeal to the ras [13] method, well known and wide utilized automation tool for balancing input-output matrices. main objective of the ras method consists in column and line balancing of the input-output matrices, in other words balancing demand and use through modification and revising of initial input-output table. main equation which is cyclic dependent on the existing discrepancy can be written as: economy and sociology 43 no. 1/ 2019 new n new rn new r new r new cn new cn new c atxtxtxatxtxtx   )()(...)()(...)()( 1111 . here )( 1 tx new c is the new volume production vector over column at the time 1 t , a is the direct material expenditure matrix, )( 1 tx new r is the new volume production vector over line at the time 1 t . these equations have been easy solved with special soft or by utilizing excel applications. being known precise sums over columns and lines in practice this method is reduced to revising existent totals over columns and lines so as it coincides with that precise. the ras adjustments can be seen as one iterative process in which columns and lines (lines and columns) have been modified successively in order to obtain correct balanced totals over columns and lines so as differences among two consecutive lines be equal to zero. at the first step ( 1 t ) (first iteration), matrix a will be replaced by the line sum in concordance with the formula: atxta new r new r  )()( 11 procedure is applied to all matrix a lines. at the second step (first iteration) all column sums are recalculated in concordance with formula: atxta new c new c  )()( 11 . first iteration is finalized with the matrix a recalculated over columns and lines as follow )()()( 111 txatxta new r new c new  . table 3 input-output table initial data before applying ras procedure mil lei data in mil lei, constant prices a b c d e f g h 160-63 164 j a agriculture, hunting economy and forestry 1452154 4436 0 2000419 0 28031 29847 81591 0 0 0 b fishing 0 1 0 20161 0 0 1890 1219 0 0 0 c mining 57053 33 59 393858 322219 421803 53898 14088 17250 3304 1193 d processing industry 2225370 6147 109014 7755851 542075 3567832 1315381 251983 2141284 325315 101408 e electric energy, gase, water 41203 653 9484 320939 242408 26013 197846 47139 94006 146554 15007 f construction 0 0 4076 194858 33087 103635 51275 15649 82651 53258 51162 g wholesale and retail trading 0 0 0 66789 11179 6319 38772 2985 48556 8163 11803 h hotels and restaurants 1564 38 521 24229 2951 35096 82510 762 71752 4154 2861 160-63transport and storing 48850 166 30891 322883 34823 63718 564646 4542 889936 78445 16272 164 communications 12232 165 511 88005 36106 39813 113264 22217 114752 153710 33824 j financial activities 7177 92 701 71932 56425 27614 345550 8845 93080 13043 221442 k70 estate transactions 13681 258 1657 167510 12464 128751 617018 23065 169002 19204 16641 k71 cars and equipments rent 0 0 0 312 0 0 0 218 1089 65 41 k72 computers and adjoint activity 4749 35 0 10232 5757 5489 0 4026 6928 8372 6614 k73 investigations elaborations 7879 0 0 30759 1819 636 0 520 2072 1408 698 k74 other commercial activities 13756 398 545 132954 24649 6646 332874 16425 57195 40887 33512 m education 0 6 129 8726 2396 1178 10600 1687 7788 8630 2332 n health and social assistance 793 14 0 0 0 0 1643 0 0 0 0 o90 recovering and waste removing 0 0 28 25243 6735 12782 24595 11066 6316 3346 4540 a agriculture, hunting economy and forestry 3886462 12440 157617 11635660 1335093 4475356 3781612 508028 3803658 867859 519349 b fishing 3886462 12440 157617 11635660 1335093 4475356 3781612 508028 3803658 867859 519349 c mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 theoretical and scientifical journal 44 no. 1 / 2019 data in mil lei, constant prices k70 k71 k72 k73 k74 m n o90 line`s sum correct sum a 0 0 0 3762 0 7245 10298 0 3617782 3886462 b 0 0 0 0 0 626 2149 0 26046 12440 c 52932 50 1994 962 2208 57387 46117 3571 1449980 157617 d 666487 5071 153753 20905 494036 399234 538800 47098 20667046 11635660 e 171257 733 6897 3456 10361 105962 53869 4458 1498246 1335093 f 72239 345 795 11799 27980 70995 45663 3428 822897 4475356 g 14161 0 329 531 22631 1603 3974 147 237941 3781612 h 7707 44 3939 1084 20080 15227 4929 8050 287496 508028 160-63 25519 390 18008 3826 71576 15163 15754 2348 2207758 3803658 164 74832 157 57778 1416 79611 13721 13184 6883 862180 867859 j 28956 535 17736 893 12878 6272 13377 8188 934737 519349 k70 163450 6353 29377 1916 69923 23517 7954 2914 1474654 1368324 k71 127 0 0 62 77 4966 9600 108 16664 14748 k72 10639 299 51233 1032 4290 7479 12509 1984 141666 355942 k73 0 0 3078 5777 2730 4189 5291 0 66855 59757 k74 70470 483 8518 1799 60164 49925 8903 2839 862941 892138 m 1290 12 1240 107 9560 8896 7825 1317 73720 796206 n health 0 0 0 0 0 0 44763 0 47213 849392 o90 8259 273 1267 429 4034 3799 4434 4368 121516 97699 coloan`s sum 1368324 14748 355942 59757 892138 796206 849392 97699 correct sum 1368324 14748 355942 59757 892138 796206 849392 97699 balansing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 source: author`s calculations. then equality of the new sums over columns and lines is verified. if the equality of the new sums over columns or lines doesn’t exist, then matrix )( 1 ta new is copied and replaced instead of the matrix a . iterations are repeated till both column sums and line sums coincide with that correct one, and namely with differences along the sum between last two iterations being equal to zero. in conclusion, for ras procedure application it is necessary to indicate data for direct material expenditure coefficients matrix a (with n lines and n columns) and correct sums over respective columns and lines. then the balancing procedure realized in excel application can be applied. table 4 input-output table initial data after applying ras procedure (mil lei) iteration 63. line transformations a b c d e f g h 160-63 164 j a 1785404 4510 0 1972238 0 33450 18718 64735 0 0 0 b 0 0 0 10872 0 0 648 529 0 0 0 c 7926 4 6 43874 33193 56872 3819 1263 1196 195 61 d 1680428 3838 54992 4696367 303547 2614945 506628 122790 807227 104328 28268 e 59883 785 9208 374035 261259 36695 146663 44211 68208 90459 8051 f 0 0 24377 1398725 219636 900423 234114 90401 369360 202468 169062 g 0 0 0 1441519 223125 165072 532281 51853 652450 93314 117271 h 4785 96 1064 59454 6697 104238 128782 1505 109614 5398 3232 160-63 147949 416 62501 784174 78210 187309 872266 8878 1345598 100901 18192 164 22464 251 627 129601 49171 70965 106096 26330 105208 119885 22931 j 7609 80 496 61149 44358 28414 186846 6051 49262 5873 86660 economy and sociology 45 no. 1/ 2019 iteration 63. line transformations a b c d e f g h 160-63 164 j k70 21687 338 1755 212928 14652 198093 498878 23594 133744 12928 9738 k71 0 0 0 771 0 0 0 433 1675 85 46 k72 22177 134 0 38315 19935 24879 0 12132 16151 16603 11402 k73 10685 0 0 33451 1829 837 0 455 1403 811 350 k74 25595 612 677 198367 34010 12002 315903 19722 53127 32309 23017 m 0 102 1891 153604 39001 25095 118695 23898 85350 80461 18897 n 89869 1275 0 0 0 0 95028 0 0 0 0 o90 0 0 24 26217 6469 16069 16248 9250 4084 1841 2171 coloan`s sum 3886462 12440 157617 11635660 1335093 4475356 3781612 508028 3803658 867859 519349 correct sum 3886462 12440 157617 11635660 1335093 4475356 3781612 508028 3803658 867859 519349 balansing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 iteration 63. line transformations k70 k71 k72 k73 k74 m n o90 line`s sum correct sum a 0 0 0 1485 0 4267 1655 0 3886462 3886462 b 0 0 0 0 0 202 189 0 12440 12440 c 3968 4 147 43 127 3819 837 263 157617 157617 d 271589 2439 61812 5070 154948 144417 53176 18852 11635660 11635660 e 134315 679 5337 1613 6254 73773 10233 3434 1335093 1335093 f 348957 1969 3791 33920 104029 304437 53423 16264 4475356 4475356 g 205682 0 4712 4590 252999 20668 13981 2097 3781612 3781612 h 12726 86 6417 1065 25521 22321 1971 13057 508028 508028 160-63 41708 753 29037 3722 90039 21999 6236 3770 3803658 3803658 164 74160 184 56491 835 60725 12071 3165 6700 867859 867859 j 16565 361 10010 304 5670 3185 1853 4601 519349 519349 k70 139818 6413 24792 975 46037 17858 1648 2448 1368324 1368324 k71 211 0 0 61 98 7327 3865 176 14748 14748 k72 26810 889 127371 1548 8320 16731 7634 4910 355942 355942 k73 0 0 2223 2516 1538 2721 938 0 59757 59757 k74 70756 573 8437 1075 46494 44498 2165 2800 892138 892138 m 15287 174 14491 757 87169 93553 22452 15329 796206 796206 n health 0 0 0 0 0 0 663220 0 849392 849392 o90 5773 225 874 179 2170 2357 751 2999 97699 97699 coloan`s sum 1368324 14748 355942 59757 892138 796206 849392 97699 correct sum 1368324 14748 355942 59757 892138 796206 849392 97699 balansing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 source: author`s calculations. 2. dynamic input-output model for the republic of moldova 2.1. model structure optimization models present special interest in its application for economic problems solving. peculiarity of the optimization models consists in the possibility to elaborate methods for efficient using of the limited resources for maintaining sustainable economic development. further, dynamic optimization model for republic of moldova will be presented. input-output table`s statistic data for republic of moldova have been collected from national accounts (years 2000-2014) in the structure of 19 industrial branches) in concordance with european union standards. objective function deals with maximizing the gross domestic product restricted by limited energy consumption for the period of [1,t]: theoretical and scientifical journal 46 no. 1 / 2019     t t tttt xaxexf 1 )(max here, t x is the vector of the production volume, t a is the matrix of the direct material expenditures and e is the unity vector. objective maximization function is followed to meet following restrictions: ttt xcc    , 211 tttttttt yyxxbxax      ,)( 1 ttttttftt xxbexaxess     ,)1( 1 ttttt yexaxes    , 2 ttttft yexaxes  , 1211   ttt xqxxq .0, 1  tt yx in previous relationships t c is the vector of energy consumption needed for production of the one unit of output in industries examined at the moment t ; t b is the matrix of the investment coefficients; t y 1 is the final consumption vector; t y 2 is the vector of net export; t s is the rate of internal savings, equal to (0.62), ft s is the weight of the foreign capital in gdp, equal to 0.67; 1 q is the fast growth limited coefficient, equal to 1.127; 2 q is the coefficient of economic recession limit, equal to 0.873. the investment coefficients of the matrix t b were calculated according to the following formula: . 1 )1(       n j ijttj ijtit ijt ax as b optimization model formulated earlier, endowed with determined ijt b coefficients, have been solved using solver application and the following conclusions were done. 2.2. calculating model parameters and forecasting table 6 macroeconomic indicators values for st and stf indices year 2010 year 2011 year 2012 year 2013 year 2014 mean st -0.6714 -0.6961 -0.6818 -0.4089 -0.6243 -0.6165 sft 0.6714 0.6961 0.6818 0.6478 0.6243 0.6643 source: author`s calculations. table 7 energy`s industry intermediate consumption years year 2010 year 2011 year 2012 year 2013 year 2014 max ct ct 3664845.609 4152344 4421277 4867877 5373075 5373075 source: author`s calculations. table 8 gdp forecasted values in (mil lei) objective function year 2015 year 2016 year 2017 year 2018 gdp 104512319.9 110708443.8 117496102.2 127693108.6 source: author`s calculations. 2.3. conclusions economy and sociology 47 no. 1/ 2019 economic development scenario restricted by energy saving polices have been elaborated dealing with small changes, in the limits of existing possibilities. so, following results presented in table 9, small diminishing of the energy industry volume in the gross domestic product structure and increasing weight in the services industries were confirmed. in conclusion, to reach energy saving it is necessary to develop such services industries which consume a small volume of energy resources: only human resources and energy preserving technologies. table 9 forecasting results (year2018) aggregate branches year 2015 year 2016 year 2017 year 2018 a agriculture, forestry and fishing 12,9178 14,0059 15,9075 15,9075 b mining 0,4762 0,5163 0,5562 0,5864 c processing industry 24,6010 20,6616 17,2410 14,0811 d production and supplying of electric energy 3,1200 2,6404 2,1866 1,7858 e water distribution; waste administration 1,,3585 1,4730 1,5867 1,6729 f construction 8,8936 9,6427 10,3874 10,9519 g wholesale and retail trading 12,7075 13,7779 14,8419 15,6485 h transport and storing 8,5466 9,6427 9,9821 10,5246 1 accommodation and public feed 1,4029 1,5210 1,6385 1,7275 j information and communications 3,8597 2,5360 0,7761 0,8183 k financial activity and insurance 2,4480 2,6541 2,8591 3,0145 l estate transactions 4,8759 5,2866 5,6949 5,2798 m professional, research and technical activities 0,2724 0,2953 0,3182 0,3354 n professional services offer and support activities 1,9612 2,1264 2,2906 2,4151 o public administration and defense 3,2202 3,4914 3,7611 3,9655 p education 4,2121 4,5669 4,9196 5,1870 q health and social assistance 3,5212 3,8178 4,1126 4,3361 r art, research and pleasure activity 1,1691 1,2676 1,3655 1,4397 s other activities and services 0,4359 0,4727 0,3944 0,3221 n professional services offer and support activities 1,9612 2,1264 2,2906 2,4151 m professional, research and technical activities 0,2724 0,2953 0,3182 0,3354 o public administration and defense 3,2202 3,4914 3,7611 3,9655 p education 4,2121 4,5669 4,9196 5,1870 q health and social assistance 3,5212 3,8178 4,1126 4,3361 r art, research and pleasure activity 1,1691 1,2676 1,3655 1,4397 s other activities and services 0,4359 0,4727 0,3944 0,3221 source: author`s calculations. table 10 direct investment expenditure coefficients matrix investment matrix bt a b c d e f g h i a agriculture, hunting economy and forestry 0,00015 0 2e-05 0 0 2e-06 9,2e-07 0 0,000168 b mining 5,4e-10 2e-09 3e-10 2,56e-08 7,8e-09 2,8e-09 1,5e-10 7e-11 2,69e-09 c iprocessing industry 5,4e-05 0,008 2e-05 0,000109 0,00044 6e-05 9,2e-06 2e-05 0,000122 d electric energy, thermic energy, gas, hot water, and conditional air production and supplying 1,3e-06 8e-04 9e-07 6,22e-05 7,6e-05 5,6e-07 1,8e-06 1e-06 2,91e-05 e water distribution; sanitation, waste administration, decontamination activities 0 1e-05 3e-07 8,24e-06 5,9e-05 1,3e-06 1e-06 4e-07 3,25e-05 f construction 0 0,005 7e-06 0,000111 0,00023 2,9e-05 6e-06 1e-05 0,000126 theoretical and scientifical journal 48 no. 1 / 2019 investment matrix bt a b c d e f g h i g wholesale and retail trading; îkeeping and repairing of cars and motocars 0 0 8e-06 0,000121 3,3e-05 5,7e-06 1,4e-05 3e-05 8,33e-05 h transport and storing 5,2e-06 0,01 3e-06 3,09e-05 5,8e-05 4,7e-06 1,7e-05 4e-05 9,69e-06 i accomodation and public nourisment activities 1,9e-08 2e-05 2e-08 2,87e-07 1,2e-05 2,9e-07 2,8e-07 4e-07 1,78e-07 j information and communication 4e-07 3e-05 2e-07 8,22e-06 2,3e-05 7,5e-07 7,7e-07 1e-06 1,24e-05 k financial and asurance activities 7,2e-08 2e-05 6e-08 4,65e-06 7,5e-06 1,9e-07 9,8e-07 4e-07 1,75e-06 l estate tranzactions 1,5e-06 5e-04 2e-06 1,13e-05 6,9e-05 9,8e-06 2e-05 8e-06 5,02e-05 m professional, scientific and technical activities 1,6e-07 0 6e-08 3,17e-07 0 9,3e-09 0 2e-08 2,17e-07 n activități de servicii administration servivies and support servicies 2,1e-07 2e-05 2e-07 3,05e-06 8,5e-06 6,9e-08 1,4e-06 4e-07 4,88e-06 p education 6,2e-09 4e-04 8e-07 2,22e-05 0,00011 9,1e-07 3,4e-06 4e-06 3,75e-05 q health and social assistance 6,4e-06 0 0 0 0 0 3,7e-06 0 0 investment matrix bt j k l m n p q a agriculture, hunting economy and forestry 0 0 0 2e-05 0 3,5e-06 1,6e-06 b mining 9,09e-11 1,3e-11 2e-09 4e-10 1,05e-10 2,4e-09 5,5e-10 c iprocessing industry 2,083e-05 2,7e-06 6e-05 2e-05 5,96e-05 4,2e-05 1,6e-05 d electric energy, thermic energy, gas, hot water, and conditional air production and supplying 8,512e-06 5,1e-07 2e-05 5e-06 1,6e-06 1,4e-05 2,1e-06 e water distribution; sanitation, waste administration, decontamination activities 1,219e-06 7,3e-07 4e-06 3e-06 2,96e-06 2,4e-06 8,2e-07 f construction 3,929e-05 2,3e-05 1e-04 0,0002 5,65e-05 0,00013 2,3e-05 g wholesale and retail trading; keeping and repairing of cars and motocars 2,002e-05 1,7e-05 7e-05 4e-05 0,000148 3,7e-05 2,2e-05 h transport and storing 1,852e-05 1,9e-06 1e-05 2e-05 3,82e-05 7,1e-06 2,1e-06 i accomodation and public nourisment activities 1,7e-07 3,7e-08 3e-07 6e-07 1,17e-06 7,8e-07 7,2e-08 j information and communication 1,151e-05 1e-06 7e-06 3e-06 9,89e-06 2,2e-06 7,6e-07 k financial and asurance activities 5,477e-07 2,4e-06 1e-06 4e-07 6,36e-07 2,7e-07 1,7e-07 l estate tranzactions 9,518e-06 2e-06 6e-05 1e-05 3,8e-05 1,1e-05 1,1e-06 m professional, scientific and technical activities 1,69e-07 1,6e-08 0 6e-06 2,85e-07 3,8e-07 1,4e-07 n activități de servicii administration servivies and support servicies 1,32e-06 5,5e-07 4e-06 1e-06 4,46e-06 3,2e-06 1,7e-07 p education 1,972e-05 2,8e-06 5e-06 6e-06 5,3e-05 4,3e-05 1,1e-05 q health and social assistance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,00045 source: author`s calculations. calculations results, depicted in the considered table, also demonstrate considerable gdp growth during the examined years under sufficient decreasing of the energy resources weight of the energy industry. for the dynamic model as well as for the static model, necessary data were gathered and processed. so the data from statistic yearbooks for the years 2000-2015 were selected, and were completed by specific features for dynamic model. because since year 2015, moldovan statistics has been changed in accordance with industrial structure of the european union, the 19 industries structure instead of 23 was adopted. the new industry structure also looks like in table 9. examined model offered many opportunities for diverse scenario elaboration and solving both in order to modify rates of growth of the industries produce volumes, and to modify technology matrix structure, and also to increase profitability of the productive industries. simulations calculations results obtained can be useful for decision making person’s in formulating development polices in economy and sociology 49 no. 1/ 2019 particular at economy as a whole level and at the sector level in special. 3. markov chains and exchange matrix for the republic of moldova let come back to the input-output model with 16 aggregate industries which described economy of the republic of moldova. industry i necessitates the quantity 10  ij a of goods (in money value) from the industry j in one lei value. let a be the direct material expenditure coefficients matrix with its elements .16,16,  jia ij let the demand for final consumption be vector ),..,,( 21 n yyyy  . we will make up markov chain taking as the states technology vectors in correspondence with examined industries, and as a transition probabilities ij a elements. it is well known that the direct expenditure coefficients matrix (technology coefficients matrix) has satisfied conditions njia ij  ,1,10 and line sum is equal to nia n j ij   1,1 1 and is strictly less than one. 1, then further transition – probabilities matrix will be constructed for the exchange matrix in the input-output model. for this purposes 16x16 exchange matrixes for republic of moldova (year 2014) were considered. we examine stochastic matrix, which has nonnegative elements, each column of it sums to one. economically, the system can be interpreted either as one in which there is no demand or one in which demand is considered as an industry which consumes all its own output. such matrices also arise in the analysis of finite markov chains: stochastic processes in which the probability of being in a particular state at any step depends only on the state occupied at the previous step. more exactly, consider repetitive trials of an experiment with a finite number of possible outcomes n sss ,...,, 21 . the sequence of outcomes is a markov chain if there is a set of 2n numbers ij p such that the conditional probability of outcome j s on any trial, given outcome i s on the previous trial, is ij p ; that is ,2,1,,1),1pr(  knjiktrialonsktrialonsp ijij the transition probabilities ij p can be arranged in a stochastic matrix as follows:                nnnn n n ppp ppp ppp p     21 22212 12111 . let )( k i p be the probability that the outcome on the thk trial i s and tk n kkk pppp ),,( )()( 2 )( 1 )(  be the associated probability distribution vector. then, for markov processes, it is true that ,2,1, )()1(   kppp kk thus a markov chain is completely characterized by its transition matrix p and an initial probability distribution )0( p in the sense that ,2,1, )0()(  kppp kk in many applications of markov processes, one is interested in the existence of equilibrium probability distributions; that is, vector p such that ppp  . for example, if some positive power of p is strictly positive then it can shown that there is a unique strictly positive distribution p so that ppp k k   )0( lim for any initial distribution )0( p . the existence of equilibrium distribution vectors can be proven using the brower fixed point theorem. if s is the set of all probability distributions, then s forms the standard )1( n simplex in n r and for p in s , we have:      j j i ji j j i j i j ijiiij i i ppppppppp ,1)()( theoretical and scientifical journal 50 no. 1 / 2019 so that pp also lies in s . thus, we can view p as a linear transformation from s to itself. since p is continuous. we can consider exchange matrix a as the transition matrix of a markov chain provided only normalized price vector s productive whose components sum to one. in the open model for an economy some output is accounted for by consumer demand. every closed model may be considered as an open model too. in terms of matrix a , this means that some columns may sum to less then 1. the system, or the matrix a , is productive if there is a nonnegative vector x (output)such that axx  . the vector x is a production vector. theorem. a substochastic matrix a is productive if and only if ai  is nonsingular. corollary if a is substochastic matrix, then the equation dxai  )( has a nonnegative solution if 0d ; a positive solution if 0d ; a strictly positive solution if .0d in the transition matrix of the markov chain, sum over its columns is equal to one. in order to satisfy this condition by the exchange matrix a , we proceed in the following manner. an absorbent state 0, denoted as  iji aa 10 is added to exchange matrix a , obtaining the new matrix a  , line sum over every line be equal to 1. a                               1000 1 1 1 121 222221 111211      j njnnn j jn j jn aaana aaaa aaaa . for columns sum to be equal to 1, it is needed to transpose the matrix a  and so transition matrix p , is obtained, in which column sum is equal to one. p                           j j j njjj nnnn n n aaa aaa aaa aaa 1111 0 0 0 21 21 22212 12111      principal cofactor of the matrix p is equal to ),()1( )( nnap nn nn   , and apnnp  *1 . suppose that x is the production volume vector in the year 2015, and y is the final demand vector in the same year (both normalized to one), then expression for the gross domestic product is yaxx  ,while vector t is absorbtion expectation time, nct  , where 1 )(   ain and )1,...,1,1(c is the n – dimensional vector )1,2,2,2,1,1,1,2,1,2,4,1,3,4,4,2,9,1,1,3(t .   097185947,0det  ai , then inverse matrix   1  ai exists, and matrix a is productive. there is not any positive power of p which is strictly positive for the matrix a . right now we calculated a power of the matrix a equal to 15, for which ,0 )0(15)15(  ppp then there is a unique strictly positive distribution 0p so that ppp k k   )0( lim for the initial distribution onetonormalisedxp , )0(  . so, beginning from the initial state 2015 x and technology matrix 2015 a examined economy has been tendedto collapse. economy and sociology 51 no. 1/ 2019 3.1. conclusions markov chain approach to the input-output models study was examined. input-output table for year 2015 in 16 structure has been transformed into transition matrix by adding one additional column and then transposing it. after transposing transformed matrix became transition one with columns sum equal to 1. applying known theory about markov chain to the considered matrix, it was possible to study stability problem and time of transition from one state to another. so, effectuated calculations demonstrates that, it is strictly necessary to modernize the economy by implementing new contemporary technologies, the faster the better, because economy collapse can be happened in the following ten years. general conclusions presented overview of the input-output models application to the concrete economy in transition like moldovan economy, has demonstrated usefulness of this tool for empirical study. ras method for input-output table balancing has been applied and realized as software program. both static and dynamic optimization models can be implicated to elaboration of the diverse scenarios and their analysis. new technology proposed for implementation could be tested before it. direct expenditure coefficients investment matrix has been constructed starting with settled down industries growth rate investment figures and then based on it, dynamic optimization model was solved using solver procedure. the same procedure was also used for solving static and dynamic optimization models. assumption about constancy of both technological and investment matrixes was made in order to effectuate calculation in time. this assumption was justified actually by small changes in time of technological and investment coefficients. markov chain application to the input-output model treatment, appear to be very useful from the stability problem point of view. all together, examined methods are recommended for policy makers in order to consult alternative opinion when decisions are taking. references 1. leontief, wassily. input-output economics. oxford: oxford university press, 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https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24125153_mathematical_models_in_input-output_economics theoretical and scientifical journal 120 december no. 2/2020 the well-being of the older people in the republic of moldova: determinants and challenges mariana buciuceanu-vrabie1 phd in sociology, associate researcher national institute for economic research, republic of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-10 jel classification: i31; i32; i38; j17 udc: 330.59-053.88(478) abstract it is attested at the national level that three-quarters of human capital aged 55 and over in moldova represent an untapped potential for active aging, which means limited opportunities to get old in good health, to be active economically, to have a safe and secure social life. meanwhile, more older people are in a group risk with high socio-economic vulnerability. according to national demographic prognoses, by the year 2035, every third person would be over 60. at the regional level, moldova has the lowest indicators on the quality of life of the older people, on the human capital in older age and on the opportunities to empower this category of the population. the paper focuses to calculate and evaluate some indicators of well-being and social inclusion of the older people in the republic of moldova. the challenges which the older people population is facing (poor living conditions, financial and material deprivation, limited access, and quality of health services, restricted physical security, etc.) are highlighted. the analysis is based on the latest available national statistics and empirical data. to emphasize determinants of material wellbeing of the older people the binary logistic regression model had been developed based on primary data of the “discrimination, abuse and violence against older people in moldova” (2014, cdr, helpage) sociological survey of persons aged 60 and over. the factors, which have a significant impact on the material welfare of the older people, are residence area and age, labour market position, the migrant experience, educational attendance, self-perceived health, age-friendly community perception. keywords: older people, active aging, wellbeing, material welfare, moldova. la nivel național se atestă că trei sferturi din capitalul uman în vârstă de 55 ani și peste este un potențial nevalorificat și are oportunități limitate de a îmbătrâni în stare de sănătate bună, de a rămâne activ economic, de a avea o viață socială sigură. între timp, tot mai multe persoane în vârstă se află în grupa de risc cu vulnerabilitate socioeconomică ridicată. potrivit prognozelor demografice naționale, se estimează că până în anul 2035 fiecare a treia persoană va fi în vârstă de 60 ani și peste. la nivel regional, moldova are cei mai mici indicatori privind calitatea vieții persoanelor în vârstă, capitalul uman la vârste mai înaintate și privind oportunitățile de împuternicire a acestei categorii de populație. lucrarea se concentrează pe calcularea și evaluarea unor indicatori de bunăstare și incluziune socială a persoanelor vârstnice din republica moldova. în lucrare sunt evidențiate provocările cu care se confruntă populația în vârstă (condiții precare de trai, lipsuri financiare și materiale, accesul și calitatea limitată a serviciilor de sănătate, securitatea fizică limitată etc.). analiza se bazează pe cele mai recente statistici naționale și date empirice disponibile. pentru a sublinia factorii determinanți ai bunăstării materiale a persoanelor în vârstă a fost dezvoltat modelul de regresie logistică binară în baza datelor primare ale sondajului sociologic asupra persoanelor cu vârsta de 60 de ani și peste „discriminarea, abuzul și violența împotriva persoanelor în vârstă din moldova” (2014, ссd, helpage). factorii, care au un impact semnificativ asupra bunăstării materiale a persoanelor în vârstă, sunt zona de reședință și vârsta, poziția pe piața muncii, experiența migrațională, nivelul de studii, sănătatea auto-percepută, percepția comunității prietenoasă cu vârsta. cuvinte-cheie: populația în vârstă, îmbătrânire activă, bunăstare, bunăstare materială, model de regresie. 1 id orcid 0000-0002-7743-7206 e-mail: buciuceanuvrabie@ccd.ince.md https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7743-7206 mailto:buciuceanuvrabie@ccd.ince.md economy and sociology 121 december no. 2/2020 на национальном уровне три четверти человеческого капитала в возрасте 55 лет и старше представляет собой недоиспользованный потенциал и имеют ограниченные возможности стареть с хорошим здоровьем, оставаться экономически активными, иметь безопасную социальную жизнь. в то же время, все больше пожилых людей находятся в группе риска повышенной социально-экономической уязвимости. согласно национальным демографическим прогнозам, каждый третий человек к 2035 году будет в возрасте 60 лет и старше. на региональном уровне в молдове самые низкие показатели качества жизни пожилых людей, человеческого капитала в пожилом возрасте и перспектив расширения прав и возможностей для данной категории населения. в статье основное внимание уделяется расчету и оценке некоторых показателей благосостояния и социальной интеграции пожилых людей в республике молдова. выделены проблемы, с которыми сталкивается пожилое население (плохие условия жизни, отсутствие финансовых и материальных средств, ограничения в доступе и качестве медицинских услуг, ограниченная физическая безопасность и т. д.). анализ основан на самых последних доступных национальных статистических и эмпирических данных. для того, чтобы подчеркнуть фактор важности материального благосостояния пожилых людей, была разработана модель бинарной логистической регрессии на основе первичных данных социологического исследования пожилых людей в возрасте 60 лет и старше «дискриминация, жестокое обращение и насилие над пожилыми людьми в молдове» (2014, цди, helpage). факторами, которые оказывают значительное влияние на материальное благосостояние пожилых людей, являются место проживания и возраст, положение на рынке труда, опыт миграции, уровень образования, самооценка здоровья, благоприятное общественное восприятие возраста. ключевые слова: пожилые люди, активное старение, благосостояние, материальное благосостояние, регрессионная модель introduction the aging coefficient of the population of the republic of moldova has increased significantly in the last 5 years, from a 17.5% (in 2014) to a 20.8% (in 2019) proportion of the population aged 60 and over, and from 10.3% to 13.7% for the population aged 65 and older (nbs 2019). even if it ranks among the countries with a relatively young population, the median age of the population being 38.8 years (nbs 2019), the republic of moldova is aging faster compared to most european countries (figure 1). figure 1. population structure and aging in moldova and some european country from the region, 2019 source: based on eurostat (online data code: demo_pjanind); the demographic yearbook of russia 2019; ageing factor of the population of moldova, as of january 1, 2014-2019. nbs, 2019. theoretical and scientifical journal 122 december no. 2/2020 in addition to one of the main reasons, which is the high mortality rate, the figures are also influenced by the low birth rate and the weight of the three large age groups (children, adults, and older people) in the total population. furthermore, the driving force behind this trend is the massive emigration of working age people. during the 2007-2016 period, migration flows oscillated between 47-55 thousand people annually (tabac and gagauz, 2020) with an increase in the number of people migrating abroad. according to the latest census data (2014), 25% (or 805.5 thousand people) of the republic of moldova’s total population are living abroad. over 70% of emigrants are economically productive and of reproductive age (20-54 years). on the one hand, there is a significant impact of emigration on the country's economy in terms of remittances, which initially served as a mechanism to reduce population poverty. although in recent years, a decreasing trend in remittances due to weaker ties in the second generation of emigrants was attested, in 2019 remittances accounted for 16.3% of moldova's gdp, and the country continues to rank among top states in europe and central asia with the largest share of remittances in gdp (wb, 2020). on the other hand, the socio-economic losses from migration are proving to be much higher and longer-lasting, because qualified and young human capital is departing, including families settling abroad permanently, thus intensifying the tempo of the demographic aging process, the vulnerability of the population in old age, and the challenges for the socio-economic policy of moldova. demographic prospects (vienna institute of demography, 2018) attest that by 2025, the age group of 60 years old and over, will account for about 25% compared with the situation registered during the last census (2014) 17,3%. a national prognosis provided by the centre for demographic research (gagauz, 2018) estimates that by the year 2035, the population of the country could drop to 2,1 million and every third person would be over 60. moreover, the current precarious living standards and the low efficiency of social policies in moldova reduces the opportunities for healthy and active aging of the population. according to national and international studies (bussolo et al., 2015), moldova remains behind at many components reported to the wellbeing of the older people. so, compared to european countries, moldova has the lowest values at three international indicators for assessing the situation of the older people: global age watch index – 35.1% (helpage international, 2015), human capital index for age groups 55-64 years old – 73.5%, and 65 age and over – 58.7% (wef, 2016), active aging index – 26.6% (updated version in 2019 based on buciuceanu-vrabie, 2016), which confirm that the aging process is compromised and imposes the biggest challenges for national policies. literature review and research on aging in the republic of moldova the rapid pace of the demographic aging process has generated changes in the approach to aging both from a generational perspective and from a stratification perspective. at the same time, there is a firm tendency to reject the concept of aging as a dysfunction. in international practice, the assessment of the standard of living and the quality of life of the older people in society is a central component in studies on population aging (unece, 2012; european union, 2014). there is an objective approach to quality of life that can be measured by direct indicators (income and expenditure, poverty level, social and medical services, morbidity, infrastructure, and various utilities, etc.) and the subjective approach, where the quality of life is defined by self-assessment by the target group (bowling, 2005). delimiting social strategies at the level of policies needed to protect, integrate, and improve the living standards of the older people becomes imperative. in the republic of moldova, the intensity of addressing the problems and needs faced by the older people as a social group has especially increased in the last decade. a significant contribution to the knowledge of the demographic aging process and its consequences at the national level were brought by authors gagauz (2004, 2009, 2012, 2016), paladi et al. (2009), sainsus (2010), cheianu-andrei (2011), savelieva et al. (2014), and others. in the period 2010-2012 a complex research titled “the aging population in the republic of moldova” (poalelungi et.al., 2012) was carried out, at the initiative of the government, to determine the real situation of the older people. also, several studies on the problems faced by the older people and in particular, the abandonment of adult children due to labor migration (nbs 2010; cheianu economy and sociology 123 december no. 2/2020 andrei et al., 2011) as well as one of the first studies on violence and discrimination against elderly people in moldova (gagauz and buciuceanu-vrabie, 2015) were conducted. the republic of moldova is committed to fulfilling the regional implementation strategy of the mipaa (2002) in order to join international practices and requirements aimed at promoting a society for all ages. the roadmap on integration aging in the republic of moldova (2011) was developed and the program for the integration of aging issues in policies and its action plan on the implementation of the roadmap for integrating the issues of aging in policies 2014-2016 (government decision, 2014) was adopted in order to organically reflect the problems of aging in all policy areas at the national level and to pursue institutional adaptation to demographic processes. in 2016, according to international procedures, the relevant state bodies, with support of the unfpa/undesa, organized an evaluation exercise on the implementation of mipaa/ris (the mipaa regional implementation strategy for the unece region) in moldova (bodrug-lungu and stafii, 2016). in 2016, the active age index (aai) was developed, adjusted, and calculated (buciuceanu-vrabie, 2016) for the first time in the republic of moldova, being an important tool to assess and to monitor the mipaa/ris implementation, an indicator for comparing the active aging across european countries, and for identifying the strengths and weaknesses of a country for this component (zaidi et al., 2013). however, complex and current studies on the quality life of the older people are sporadic at the national level, and the present study seeks to fill the gaps by providing new evidence from the republic of moldova. the objective here is to analyze recent trends registered by elderly people wellbeing indicators and to assess the determinants associated with their material welfare. data and methods in terms of this paper, wellbeing issues are reflected through objective data based on latest available official statistics, but also through the subjective data of empirical studies on the selfperceived views of the elderly on their material welfare. to assess the standard of living and to calculate some indicators of well-being and social inclusion of the older people in the republic of moldova, the analysis of primary statistical data provided by the national bureau of statistics (nbs) and the secondary analysis of representative empirical studies were performed (table 1). the latest available and accessible data were taken as a reference. the analysis had been performed only on the sub-sample of people aged 55 and over or people aged 60 and over, depending on the accessibility and the structure of each database. it was also differentiated by gender and area of residence (urban/rural). table 1 latest available statistical and empirical databases used in the analysis survey year of reference source labour force survey (lfs) 2014-2018 national bureau of statistics (nbs) household budget survey (hbs) 2013-2018 nbs population and housing census 2014 nbs discrimination, abuse, and violence against older people 2014 centre for demographic research (cdr), helpage public opinion barometer (pob) 2018 ipp (institute of public policy, moldova) pilot research volunteer activity (as a component module of lfs) 2015 nbs pilot research access of health care (as a component module of hbs) 2016 nbs source: own compilation. the binary logistic regression model was used for assessing the association between several demographic, socioeconomic, and psychosocial variables and the material welfare of the older people. regression analysis was performed in the spss statistical analysis software, based on primary data of theoretical and scientifical journal 124 december no. 2/2020 the “discrimination, abuse and violence against older people in moldova” sociological survey (cdr, helpage, 2014), and included the sample of people aged 60 and over – 1096 cases (persons). the dependent variable is bad material welfare, and was built on the alternative answer of personal income self-appreciation that „it is not enough to cover even basic expenses”. thus, the target group in the regression model were persons aged 60 and over who attested a hard material situation that isn‘t even enough for strict necessities. the independent variables integrated into the regression models are focused on: ✓ demographic predictors – age, sex, type of residence. the variable age was measured by fiveyear age groups and variables such as type of residence and sex were recodified. ✓ socio-economic predictors – the relationship with the labor market, the level of education, the migratory experience in the family, the state of health. all variables were recodified. the position on labour market was recodified and only measured by two categories: employed on the labour market, and un employed. the level of education is measured by three categories: tertiary, post-secondary non-tertiary, secondary level. the variable health assessment was recodified on three levels, the first one being positive and the last one being negative. within the variable migration experience, only two levels were built: the existence, in the last three years at least, of a personal migration experience or the migration experience of a close family member (spouse, adult child), as well as lack of migration experience. ✓ psychosocial predictors (or age-friendly community predictors) – mental well-being (measured by self-perception of the attitude of others, the feeling of loneliness/isolation), social status (respect in society). the last regression model analyzes certain subjective assessments regarding the attitude that older people feel towards them. in this model, the analyzed variables were: i feel respect and a favourable attitude from those around me, i feel lonely and socially isolated, i feel that i am not treated with dignity and respect because of my age. all variables were recodified on two levels – positive or negative appreciation. conducting research and results according to the latest revised moldova's demographic indicators (nbs, 2019), the profile of the population aged 60 and over attested that every third person is between 60-64 years of age and every 10th is over 80. the female and male population is aging differently: about 60% of the total number of the older people are women. about 71% of older women report in the 60-74 age group, and one in five in the 75-85 age group. worth mentioning that, if other countries are aging as a result of an increase in life expectancy, the ageing of moldova’s population is developing in parallel with maintaining a high mortality rate. moreover, low values of living standards cause a low expected duration of a healthy life. indicators in table 2 reflect an overview of the elderly people quality of life in the republic of moldova. the situation is worrying. about three-quarters of the human potential aged 55 and over is untapped and has very limited chances to enjoy active and healthy aging, together with a participative, self-sufficient and secure life. the situation has been more difficult for women and the population of rural areas. table 2 some indicators regarding the well-being and social inclusion of the elderly population of moldova (latest available data) total men women urban rural life expectancy (2018), years (nbs, 2019) 70.6 66.2 75.0 life expectancy at age 60 (2018), years (nbs, 2019) 17.01 14.81 19.21 healthy life expectancy at age 60 (2015), years (gagauz et al, 2017) 11.25 10.7 11.8 educational attainment of population aged 55 to 74 (share of older persons aged 55-74 with upper secondary or tertiary educational attainment (isced scale)), % (2018, lfs, nbs) 72.3 79.4 67.4 85.7 62.4 access to health services of people aged 55 and over, % (2016, hbs, nbs) 65.2 71.4 61.5 70.5 62.1 economy and sociology 125 december no. 2/2020 total men women urban rural independent living arrangements of people aged 65 and older, % (2014, census, nbs) 59.8 56.7 62.6 55.8 61.7 independent living arrangements of people aged 75 and over, % (2014, census, nbs) 62.3 58.2 65.3 56.0 65.0 the ratio of the median disposable income of people aged 65 and above to the median disposable income of those aged below 65 (2014, hbs, nbs) 55.3 65.8 43.7 48.6 57.8 no poverty risk for people aged 65 and older, % (2013, hbs, nbs) 84.1 84.5 83.8 91.1 79.1 share of people aged 60 and over having enough income to cover basic expenses or /and more than basic expenses (self-report), (2018, pob, ipp) 53.3 68.8 43.1 59 46.9 share of retirees (people aged 57/62+)* with average income greater than or equal to specific national thresholds of existence minimum, % (2018, hbs, nbs) 54.4 70.1 49.7 physical safety of people aged 55 and older, % (2018, pob, ipp) 53.9 62.5 47.6 46.2 59.0 the mental well-being of people aged 60 and over, % (2014, cdr, helpage) 62.1 66.5 59.9 65.7 59.9 lifelong learning among people aged 55 to 74 years, % (2014, census, nbs) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 share of people aged 55 and older with high chances to actively and healthy aging, to participative, selfsufficiency and secure life (aai, 2016), % (2019 updated version based on buciuceanu-vrabie m., 2016) 26.6 28.9 24.5 27.3 23.7 note: *in moldova women are retiring at age 57 and men at age 62. starting to june 2017, retirement age was increased, with the intention to reach age 63 for both men and women by 2028. source: own compilation based on national statistics and empirical databases presented in table 1. according to official statistics, the relative median income of people aged 65 and over is about 112 eur which is almost twice smaller compared with the income of people aged below 65 (203 eur) (last available data 2014, hbs, nbs). if pension systems may play an important role in reducing poverty among the older people in eu countries, in the republic of moldova, the small amount of pensions is one of the determinants for the material vulnerability of elderly people. for 65% of the population aged 55 and over the pension is their main source of personal income. the average monthly size of the retirement pension is about 83.4 eur and only since 2018 has it slightly exceeded the value of minimum living expenses (79.9 eur) for this category of the population (old-age retirees). if in the case of retired men, the value of the pension (98.4 euro) exceeds the monthly subsistence minimum by about 20%, then in the case of women the pension (77.1 eur) does not even complete the value of the necessary minimum for living. the gender gap between pensions is about 22%. it should be noted that, due to the higher share in the older population and the difference in longevity between women and men, 70.6% of the total retirees for old age are women. therefore, a good part of the older population, especially women, have a precarious financial situation. the analysis of empirical data in the field (bop, ipp, 2018; cdr, helpage, 2014) attest that for every second older person aged 60 and over, monthly income is insufficient to cover even the basic needs, and this reality has been maintained over time. the situation is significantly different for older women and seniors from rural areas, where only 43% and respectively 47% are outside severe material deprivation, compared to men (69%) and those from urban areas (59%). with age, the financial situation becomes more difficult, the share of the older people who have no financial sources to cover their basic expenses is increasing (48.3% for those aged 60-64 and about 61% for those aged 80 and over). low standards of living influence all aspects of older people’ life, including health. over several decades, moldova has not achieved sustainable progress in healthcare. low health indicators theoretical and scientifical journal 126 december no. 2/2020 characterize the total population per general and the elderly in particular. the life expectancy at birth is about ten years lower than the average in eu countries and amounts to 75 years for women and 66.2 years for men (nbs, 2019). this reality is explained, in particular, through the maintenance of a high mortality rate among the working-age population, with a high gender gap, men being more affected (pahomii, 2018). life expectancy at the age of 60 for men is 14.8 years and for women is 19.2 years (nbs, 2019). according to the latest studies, healthy life expectancy at age 60 is 10.7 years for men and 11.8 for women, respectively. the proportion of time spent in good health at the age of 60 is higher for men (up to 74%) than for women (only 63%) (gagauz et al., 2017). the gender aspect is evident: although women have a higher life expectancy than men do, the presence of various chronic diseases lead to more years in poor health and/or disability. thus, it is found that in addition to the much more deficient financial situation and loneliness the quality of life of older women is exacerbated by a worse health status. among old people, one third appreciated (self-perceived) their health as bad and very bad, and more than two-thirds attested that they are suffering from various chronic diseases (nbs, 2016). furthermore, the accessibility of medical services is reduced. estimates based on official data (hbs, nbs, 2016) attests, only two-thirds of people aged 55 and over have access to medical services when they need them – a very low performance compared to the average result score of 88.2% per eu (unece/european commission, 2019). because of poorly developed infrastructure, access to medical services is even more limited for the aging people in villages – only 62%, compared to those in the city (about 71%). besides, the discrimination by age is a widespread phenomenon in treatment access, diagnosis and long-term care (poalelungi et al., 2012; gagauz and buciuceanu-vrabie, 2015). according to the self-assessment of the needs (cdr, helpage, 2014), most of the older people expressed their imminent need for a financial aid (63.4%), purchase of medications (51.2%) and assistance regarding the obtainment of medical services (35%). at the same time, from the official statistics (nbs, 2019), we notice the monthly consumption expenditures of the seniors are concentrated mainly for food, household maintenance, medical care, and health. despite free compulsory medical insurance for pensioners, older people spend monthly almost twice more funds for health and medical care than the country's average. the results of the regression analysis presented in table 3 have shown that, among demographic predictors, the residence area and age have the most significant impact on the older people's material welfare, while the impact of gender discrepancies is lower. table 3 logit regression of material deprivation („hard material situation that is not even enough for the strict necessities”), demographic predictors b s.e. wald df sig. exp(b) step 1a residence area .368 .124 8.744 1 .003 1.445 sex -.107 .131 .674 1 .412 .898 age .109 .043 6.263 1 .012 1.115 constant -.295 .152 3.785 1 .052 .744 cases included in analysis 1088 (99.3%), nagelkerke r square 0.020 source: author’ calculations based on primary data of the sociological survey “discrimination, abuse and violence against older people in moldova” (2014, cdr, helpage). thus, in the rural area, the older people are about 1.5 times more exposed to the risk of poor material welfare than those from urban areas. besides, aging increases the risk of material deprivation by 1.1 times. it should be noted that the first two independent variables are statistically significant (p=0.003 and p=0.012 respectively), while the sex variable is not (p = 0.412). referring to the socioeconomic predictors (table 4), a significant impact has the status/position of the older people on the labour market. economy and sociology 127 december no. 2/2020 table 4 logit regression of material deprivation („hard material situation that is not even enough for the strict necessities”), socioeconomic predictors b s.e. wald df sig. exp(b) step 1a employment .649 .216 9.036 1 .003 1.914 self-perceived health 8.500 2 .014 very good/good -.547 .195 7.892 1 .005 .579 fair health -.248 .143 2.981 1 .084 .781 migration experience -.345 .128 7.211 1 .007 .708 educational attendance 31.766 3 .000 tertiary -1.242 .236 27.643 1 .000 .289 post-secondary non-tertiary -.647 .224 8.324 1 .004 .524 secondary -.330 .181 3.313 1 .069 .719 constant .415 .280 2.193 1 .139 1.514 cases included in analysis 1079 (98.4%). nagelkerke r square 0.104 source: author’ calculations based on primary data of the sociological survey “discrimination, abuse and violence against older people in moldova” (2014, cdr, helpage). for the seniors who are not employed, the probability and the risk to have precarious material conditions of living increases about 2 times. the presence of either personal experience of emigration or the experience of emigration by a close family member, in the last three years, reduces the risk for a bad material situation 0.7-fold. this could be explained by the dependence of remittances that cover some expenses. in 2018, remittances constituted around 8% of the retirees income sources (hbs, nbs, 2018), for those in rural areas twice more than in urban ones. another socioeconomic determinant is health. by the regression model is attested that people who self-assess their health more positively are even less exposed to a negative assessment of material well-being – about 0.6 times for those who self-perceived their health as very good or good, compared to those with very bad or bad health perception. the same situation is observed regarding the older people’s education attendance: the risk of material deprivation increases for people with a low level of education. it is important to note that the last two variables, both the health perceived of health and educational attendance are not statistically significant. it is worth mentioning that the labour market in the republic of moldova is poorly developed and unfriendly to people of older age. in general a relatively high level of educational attendance among population aged 55-75 years is attested – about 72% hold at least upper secondary educational attainment (isced scale) (lfs, nbs 2018), compared to the 65,2% average in eu countries (unece, 2018). but, the lack of jobs, poor health in older age, the presence of stereotypes, the absence of lifelong learning opportunities (only 0,2% for population aged 55 years and over (census, nbs, 2014), compared to 5.1% – the eu average (unece, 2018)) increase the vulnerability of remaining occupationally unintegrated at older ages. more than 75% of the human capital aged 55-74 represent an untapped potential for the productive work sector (own calculations based on lfs, nbs 2019). from the perspective of age, only one in four is active on the labour market at the age of 55-64 years and only one in fourteen (7.6%) at age 65-74. reality shows a clear gender and area gap: the employment is about 20% among women aged 55-74 (compared to men – 29%), and about 21% in rural areas (compared to 28% in urban theoretical and scientifical journal 128 december no. 2/2020 areas). in reality, employment in the rural areas is lower than the one in urban areas for the entire population as well. first, due to the lack of real jobs. there are no units of production (factories), and the activity in the agricultural field is for many an informal one, self-assured and unpaid. secondly, rural areas have an even older population, and after retirement (at age 57 for women and age 63 for men), the opportunities to stay on the labour market are very small. in general, some of those working in education, public administration, health and social assistance can continue their activity. another problem is health status. both qualitative researches (gagauz and buciuceanu-vrabie, 2015; poalelungi et.al., 2012), as well as quantitative surveys (lfs, nbs, 2017), show that although some want to work, more than half do not because of their health. according to official statistics of the total number of old-age pensioners, those who work after retirement account to about 21%, the share being higher for men and those in urban areas, amounting to a quarter. more than two thirds (68.5%) work in agriculture, public administration, education, health and social work. the extension of working activity has a positive effect on the financial situation of the older people. based on lfs surveys it is attested that the vast majority (about 87%) of retirees who have a job, work out of the need to ensure sufficient income for their own family (lfs, nbs, 2017). the last regression model analysis includes age-friendly community and social relation predictors (table 5). therefore, the impact of older people's perceptions or feelings about others’ attitude towards them and their material welfare status was tested. so, the older people who feel a bad attitude towards them are about 3.5 times more at risk of material deprivation than those who feel a positive attitude from others. table 5 logit regression of material deprivation („hard material situation that is not even enough for the strict necessities”), age-friendly community predictors b s.e. wald df sig. exp(b) step 1a feel the respect and favourable attitude from those around 1.247 .378 10.874 1 .001 3.479 feel lonely and socially isolated .229 .136 2.816 1 .093 1.257 feel that i am not treated with dignity and respect because of my age .296 .134 4.904 1 .027 1.344 constant -.107 .090 1.414 1 .234 .899 case included in analysis 1002 (91.4%). nagelkerke r square 0.035 source: author’ calculations based on primary data of the sociological survey “discrimination, abuse and violence against older people in moldova” (2014, cdr, helpage). also, the elderly people who mentioned that they do not feel to be treated with dignity and respect because of their age, are 1.3 times more at risk of poor material well-being compared to those who enjoy a positive/friendly attitude from those around. in conclusion, it is shown that in an agefriendly community, which leads to intergenerational solidarity, that promotes positive attitude for age needs and which is open to help (old people)/the seniors, the quality of life and material wealth of the older people could be improved. economy and sociology 129 december no. 2/2020 conclusion for the republic of moldova, it is obviously necessary to adapt to the demographic aging of the population much faster than developed countries. however, at the country level the serious obstacles to succeeding in this direction are highlighted. the deep socio-economic and political crisis of the last two decades, the level of national income, as well as social infrastructure and social welfare potential, is exacerbating the living standards of the population with enormous consequences for vulnerable groups such as the elderly. besides ongoing attempts to adjust social policies, including those concerning demographic security and the prevention of the effects of aging, to international requirements and recommendations, the quality of life and well-being of the older population has not changed. on the contrary, it is becoming more and more compromised and with very little chance for active aging, even for elderly populations in the future. the presented analysis shows a large gender gap and discrepancy by area of residence. older women and old population from villages are the most affected. regression analysis highlights an equation of factors where age, residence area, relation with the labor market, migrational experience, health, age-friendly attitude and perception appears to be the most important among determinants of the material depravation for elderly people. the main policy challenges in the context of ensuring subsequent active aging in moldova are the low standard of living and the citizens’ low level of material well-being, and to a more profound extent for those of old age, a labor market that is poorly developed and unfriendly to elderly age, deficient leverage for various activities with social involvement, lack of solidarity between generations, and the shortage of independent, healthy and safe living conditions. references 1. bodrug-lungu, v., stafii, a. evaluarea implementării de către republica moldova a planului internaţional de acţiuni 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priorități de politici. chișinău: ince, 2018, pp. 45-56. isbn 978-9975-3272-2-0. 18. paladi, gh., gagauz, o., penina, o. îmbătrânirea populaţiei în republica moldova: consecinţe economice şi sociale. academia de ştiinţe a moldovei, institutul integrare europeană şi ştiinţe politice. chişinău: iieşp, 2009. 208 p. isbn 978-9975-0742-2-6. 19. poalelungi, o. et.al. îmbătrânirea populației în republica moldova. cercetarea la nivel național. chișinău, 2012. 236 p 20. sainsus, v. impactul îmbătrînirii demografice asupra sistemului de pensionare. subtilități și căi posibile de redresare. academia de studii economice din moldova. chişinău: asem, 2010. 58 p. isbn 978-9975-75-546-7. 21. tabac, t., gagauz, o. migration from moldova: trajectories and implications for the country of origin. in: denisenko, m., strozza, s., light, m. eds. migration from the newly independent states: 25 years after the collapse of the ussr. societies and political orders in transition. cham: springer, 2020, pp.143-168. 22. united nations. report on icpd programme of action implementation in the unece region. fulfilling the potential of present and future generations. united nations. new york, 2019. 140 p. isbn 9789210477314. available: https://doi.org/10.18356/2e977927-en [accessed: september 10, 2020]. 23. united nations economic commission for europe . how generations and gender shape demographic change. towards policies based on better knowledge. new york and geneva, 2009. 173 p. [accessed: september 13, 2020] available: https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/dam/pau/_docs/ggp/2008/ggp_2008_ggconf_publ_1_titleprefacea ndcontents.pdf 24. comisia economică pentru europa. foaia de parcurs pentru integrarea îmbătrânirii republica moldova. organizaţia naţiunilor unite. new york, geneva, 2011. 97 p 25. united nations economic commission for europe. active ageing index results for eu28. 2018 aai. retrieved may 4, 2020 from [accessed: october 20, 2020]. available: https://unece.org/fileadmin/dam/pau/age/active_ageing_index/active_ageing_index_trends_20 08-2016_web_with_cover.pdf 26. united nations economic commission for europe. active ageing index 2018. analytical report. unece, european commission. geneva, 2019, october. 80 p. 27. vienna institute of demography. european demographic data sheet 2018 reviews. wittgenstein centre for demography. 2020. [accessed: october 17, 2020]. available: https://www.oeaw.ac.at/en/vid/data/demographic-data-sheets/european-demographic-datasheet-2018/ 28. wb 2020. annual remittances data. inflows. 2020. [accessed: october 17, 2020]. available: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/migrationremittancesdiasporaissues/brief/migrationremittances-data 29. world economic forum (wef). the human capital report 2016. geneva, 2016. 40 p. isbn 978-1944835-02-6. available: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/hcr2016_main_report.pdf [accessed: august 20, 2020] 30. zaidi, a. et.al. active ageing index 2012. concept, methodology and final results. european centre.vienna, 2013, march, 68 p. article history received 12 august 2020 accepted 21 december 2020 https://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/pxweb/ro/20%20populatia%20si%20procesele%20demografice/20%20populatia%20si%20procesele%20demografice__poprec__pop010/pop011600rcl.px/?rxid=b2ff27d7-0b96-43c9-934b-42e1a2a9a774 https://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/pxweb/ro/20%20populatia%20si%20procesele%20demografice/20%20populatia%20si%20procesele%20demografice__poprec__pop010/pop011600rcl.px/?rxid=b2ff27d7-0b96-43c9-934b-42e1a2a9a774 https://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/pxweb/ro/20%20populatia%20si%20procesele%20demografice/20%20populatia%20si%20procesele%20demografice__poprec__pop010/pop011600rcl.px/?rxid=b2ff27d7-0b96-43c9-934b-42e1a2a9a774 https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=ro&idc=168&id=5764 https://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/pxweb/en/20%20populatia%20si%20procesele%20demografice/?rxid=b2ff27d7-0b96-43c9-934b-42e1a2a9a774 https://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/pxweb/en/20%20populatia%20si%20procesele%20demografice/?rxid=b2ff27d7-0b96-43c9-934b-42e1a2a9a774 https://doi.org/10.18356/2e977927-en https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/dam/pau/_docs/ggp/2008/ggp_2008_ggconf_publ_1_titleprefaceandcontents.pdf https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/dam/pau/_docs/ggp/2008/ggp_2008_ggconf_publ_1_titleprefaceandcontents.pdf https://unece.org/fileadmin/dam/pau/age/active_ageing_index/active_ageing_index_trends_2008-2016_web_with_cover.pdf https://unece.org/fileadmin/dam/pau/age/active_ageing_index/active_ageing_index_trends_2008-2016_web_with_cover.pdf https://www.oeaw.ac.at/en/vid/data/demographic-data-sheets/european-demographic-data-sheet-2018/ https://www.oeaw.ac.at/en/vid/data/demographic-data-sheets/european-demographic-data-sheet-2018/ https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/migrationremittancesdiasporaissues/brief/migration-remittances-data https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/migrationremittancesdiasporaissues/brief/migration-remittances-data http://www3.weforum.org/docs/hcr2016_main_report.pdf how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 16 june no. 1/2021 conceptual aspects and the most used practices in obtaining the reliability of entity value estimation iulita birca1, scientific researcher, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova phd student usv „stefan cel mare”, suceava, romania mariana rodica tirlea2, phd, associate professor, „dimitrie cantemir” christian university, bucharest, romania victoria ganea3, professor, habilitation in economics state university of moldova olga buzu4, habilitation in economics, associate professor, technical university of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-02 jel classification: e32, f23, f32, f60, f65, m2, p19, p42 czu: 657.922 abstract estimating the entity value is topical and of particular interest to managers and business owners, who in turn hope that through the evaluation they will obtain parallel and new possibilities for the business remediation. in this context, managers seek the support of qualified assessors, who will conduct a thorough analysis of the entity's state at a given date, will apply the most effective evaluation methods. in this paper we proposed to investigate and analyze the theoretical aspects of the entity value estimation (eve), rendered in the opinion of the well-informed researchers and in the light of the evaluation standards. as a result, we note that the criteria of evaluations have been supplemented with the following criterion: by type of activity of the economic entity. we estimate the evaluation methods in order to identify the most accepted and effective method for this important process to the entity. for the practical aspect of the investigation, we focused on the method of comparison in the market valuation of the enterprise, in order to establish the statistical indicators consisting of the calculation of the median and the arithmetic mean. based on the calculations made in the practical part, we have found that an economic entity can change its own value, in particular, by the way its values are profitable. in estimating the value of the entity, a decision-making function is attributed to the rests with the assessor, in particular with regard to the methods selected and applied professionally by the entity, in compliance with professional valuation standards and current regulations, as the fair estimation of the entity's value leads to a secure future and a guaranteed success. keywords: entity, value, valuation methods, valuation standards, evaluator, estimation, median, arithmetic mean. estimarea valorii entităţii este de actualitate și prezintă un interes deosebit pentru managerii și proprietarii unei afaceri, care, la rândul lor, speră ca prin intermediul evaluării să obțină paralel și noi posibilități de remediere a businessului. în acest context, managerii apelează la sprijinul evaluatorilor calificați, care vor desfășura o analiză profundă a stării entității la o anumitǎ datǎ, vor aplica cele mai eficiente metode de evaluare. în această lucrare ne-am propus să cercetăm și să analizăm aspectele teoretice cu privire la estimarea valorii entităţii (eve), redate în opinia cercetătorilor notorii și prin prisma standardelor de evaluare. drept rezultat, menționăm că a fost completată schema criterialǎ a evaluărilor cu următorul criteriu: după tipul de activitate al entităţii economice. descriem metodele de evaluare cu scopul de a identifica pe cea mai acceptată și eficientă metodă pentru acest proces semnificativ pentru entitate. pentru aspectul practic al investigației ne-am axat pe 1 id orcid 0000-0002-3910-8022 e-mail: bircaiulita@mail.ru 2 id orcid 0000-0002-0665-5839 e-mail: rodicatirlea10@yahoo.ro 3 id orcid 0000-0002-6788-1856 e-mail: ganea.victoria@gmail.com 4 id orcid 0000-0002-6702-466x e-mail: olbuzu@yahoo.com https://scholar.google.ru/citations?user=eizm3mwaaaaj&hl=ru https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3910-8022 https://ince.md/en/ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3910-8022 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0665-5839 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6788-1856 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4240-812x economy and sociology 17 june no. 1/2021 metoda comparaţiei în evaluarea de piaţă a întreprinderii, pentru a stabili indicatorii statistici care constau în calculul medianei și a mediei aritmetice. în baza calculelor efectuate în partea practică, am constatat că o entitate economică își poate schimba propria valoare, în special, prin modul de rentabilizare a valorilor sale. în procesul de estimare a valorii entităţii, o funcție decizională revine evaluatorului, în special în ceea ce privește metodele selectate și aplicate în mod profesional de către acesta, prin respectarea standardelor profesionale de evaluare și a reglementărilor actuale, deoarece estimarea justă a valorii entității conduce la un viitor sigur și la succes garantat. cuvinte-cheie: entitate, valoare, metode de evaluare, standarde de evaluare, evaluator, estimare, mediană, media aritmetică. оценка стоимости предприятия представляет особую актуальность и интерес для менеджеров и владельцев бизнеса, которые, в свою очередь, ожидают, что посредством оценки параллельно получат новые возможности для налаживания бизнеса. в этом контексте менеджеры пользуются поддержкой квалифицированных оценщиков, которые проводят углубленный анализ состояния предприятия на заданную дату и примененяют наиболее эффективные методы оценки. в данной статье мы стремились исследовать и проанализировать теоретические аспекты оценки стоимости объекта (eve), представленные по мнению известных исследователей и с точки зрения стандартов оценки. в результате отметим, что критериальная схема оценок была дополнена критерием «по виду деятельности хозяйствующего субъекта». мы описываем методы оценки, чтобы определить наиболее приемлемый и эффективный метод для этого важного для компании процесса. что касается практического аспекта исследования, мы сосредоточились на методе сравнения при рыночной оценке предприятия, чтобы установить статистические показатели, состоящие в вычислении медианы и среднего арифметического. на основе расчетов, проведенных в практической части, мы установили, что экономический субъект может изменять собственную стоимость, в частности, делая свои ценности прибыльными. в процессе оценки стоимости предприятия функция принятия решений возлагается на оценщика, в частности, в отношении выбранных и применяемых методов, путем соблюдения профессиональных стандартов оценки и действующих нормативных актов, поскольку справедливая оценка стоимости предприятия ведит к безопасному и гарантированному будущему. ключевые слова: субъект, стоимость, методы оценки, стандарты оценки, оценщик, оценка, медиана, среднее арифметическое. the value is estimated most accurately by comparison. introduction estimating the value of the entity is an activity that becomes increasingly important, because the purpose of all economic operators is to carry out a profitable business. the assessment of the economic entity aims to provide a value of the economic entity , in this context the estimate of the value of an enterprise is intensified because its success ultimately depends on the level and how to remedy the value increase, also through management that focuses on the value of the entity. we argue that increasing the value of an entity contributes to a better reputation, which strengthens its safe positioning on the market, but also its stability. "the enterprise is itself a changing entity, obliged to continuously improve and adapt its level, structure and quality of transformations on input elements to meet the needs of the market, personnel, administration and to win itself in terms of profit, image, market share, extension capacity, resistance to competition, etc."(deliu et al., 2011, 81-87). we mention that the evaluation represents the process of estimating the value of goods of different types: tangible or intangible, movable or immobilized, of business, business actors, we emphasize that it is also the most important step in determining the fair value of an economic entity. the evaluation work is carried out by an evaluator through a thorough analysis and the outcome of the evaluator's work is based and confirmed using the entity's evaluation methods, based on the actual purpose of the evaluation. each evaluation method refers to a time model that contains information about how the entity is evolving. due to the evaluation of the value of the business, managers can identify new possibilities for the development and expansion of the theoretical and scientifical journal 18 june no. 1/2021 business, but also eliminate the weaknesses of the company's activity. the economy is always developing, which is why the entity's valuation methods must comply with these changing aspects, which are determined by local and international market rules. investigating the aspects of assessing the cost and the economic entity’s price mechanisms at a given time are very essential in calculating its fair value. at the same time, we consider the overall value of the economic entity in the light of new evaluation methods versus the traditional ones to be very difficult to establish. at the same time, we note that in the practice of evaluation there are no standard models that allow the choice of evaluation methods, as it depends on many factors that are specific to a concrete situation. however, the evaluation standards are valid by the evaluation standards. the declared role of evaluation standards is mainly: to establish procedures that to allow value certification under conditions comparable to national (domestic) and international law, evaluation practice and accounting standards; to assist evaluators by defining the fundamental elements of evaluation, creating a precise and compatible basis in practical activity; and to ensure quality parameters for evaluation beneficiaries"(țuțui, f.a.). literature review since the valuation has the ability to monitor certain external actions related to the entity, such as the influence of fixed assets, changes in market value in respect of intangible assets and others, respectively, we may mention that the valuation may also identify changes that are not found and presented in the accounting reports in a real way that will help s identify the entity’s actual value. the main institutions of governance systems actively support the assessment of the entity's value. of course, the evaluation contributes to the improvement, but, nevertheless, it is not always analyzed in a critical way (the evaluation enterprise, f.a., 2020, 6). a proposed objective for the achievement of this study is to deepen knowledge in the conceptual field in the process of estimating the e entity's value. to this end, we will then give a description of the scientific approach to assessing the value of the entity in the literature. most frequently, the valuation is carried out on financial markets and less on other markets in order to clarify the financial situation, to establish the adaptation to the regulation s in force or the association of proprietary transactions. in support of this process, the international assessment standards (ies) are developed globally for the purpose of carrying out the evaluation tasks, by using the generally recognized concepts and principles. ies ensures transparency and consistency in evaluation practice. in this context, the international assessment standards committee (ivsc) contributes to the formation to practical approaches to the activities and qualifications of professional assessors. at the same time, we consider it important to stress that in order to comply with international evaluation standards, the evaluation must be carried out in accordance with all the rules that are established by the ies, arising from the purpose and conditions set out in the evaluation process. for the purpose of estimating the value of the entity, the completion of the entity's valuation process should be carried out on a regular and credible basis. this process begins by identifying by the evaluator the entity that should be evaluated and the basis of the evaluation and ends with reporting the conclusions to the client. the evaluation has been defined by some researchers as a set of techniques, processes and methods by which the value of a good, group of goods, asset or enterprise is established, is a simple operation of weighing, measuring, etc., being a complex process of estimating the value (deaconu, 2002). the evaluation is also defined by other researchers "as the process of estimating a type of value (e.g. market value, insurance value, subjective value, liquidation value, etc.) of a particular identified property at a certain date", and the estimation process involves both elements of "assessment science" and elements of the evaluator's ability, synthesized by the word "assessment art" (proiect procesul de evaluare a intreprinderii sinteza diagnosticelor, f.a.). the romanian researcher ion ionita states that "the evaluation of the organization involves not only establishing the value of some properties or assets of its heritage, but also determining its economy and sociology 19 june no. 1/2021 ability to generate cash flows that the owner of the organization will benefit from, since it is an asset which in turn generates goods"(ioniță, 2007). if we define the valuation process from the accounting point of view, it "consists in the quantification and expression in monetary units of the size of the assets (assets, liabilities, expenses and revenues) and of the economic and financial operations with changes in the assets mass" (oprea and ristea, 2000). thus, by generalizing the above mentioned, we define the estimate of the entity's value as the process of determining two types of values (market or non-market) of the business, with the main purpose of profit-making, and the performance, determined by the evaluator within a determined period, allows the development in perspective through a more efficient organization of revenues, through multilateral market research and, inevitably, competition. in the opinion of the authors, the purpose of an evaluation is, firstly, to establish the value of the entity by applying the appropriate valuation methods in accordance with the specific features of that entity, in particular by applying the processes and methods, which are maximum accepted by successful evaluators and, secondly, in continuously monitoring and managing the value creation process in order to maximize the market value. the essential role in the process of actual estimation of the value of the entity shall be assigned to the assessor with professional skills, theoretical and practical knowledge. if we refer to the national level, in the legislation of the republic of moldova, "assessment is a process of determining the value of the evaluation object at a determined date, taking into account the physical, economical, social and other factors that influence the value". according to the guide on participatory monitoring and evaluation of social services, referring to civil society organizations, "the evaluation is an activity of in-depth analysis of interventions in the light of the results achieved, the impact, the satisfaction of needs, to which the public policy, the project, the service, the planned activity have set out to respond. the evaluation refers to the analysis of the extent to which the objectives have been achieved, the exposure of assessments of how effective and efficient the process was, how relevant the activities were, how sustainable the results were achieved" [soros, 2019]. some bibliographical sources related to the investigated topic reveal that these researches are focused on the description of the conceptual foundations of the evaluation activity, on the types of values that represent the basis of the evaluation activity, on the description of the evaluation methods, the place, the role of the evaluation of entities and their regulation in the activity of commercial banks, etc.(băncilă, 2007). the financial aspect of the entity's valuation is quite complex, as it represents a synthesis area, where various methods of investment selection, financial forecasting and financial decision -making are used at the same time. in economic practice, the assessment is analyzed as an activi ty of estimating the value of economic goods, property rights over them, technologies and advantages relating to the assets of economic units and the future profitability created by them. it is worth mentioning that the evaluation process, according to the analyzed bibliography, takes place in stages and constitutes a set of well-defined operations that initiate with the definition of the evaluation mission, follows the collection and analysis of information by applying the methods appropriate to this process, so that finally a special act – the evaluation report(băncilă et al., 2014). further to the study, another researcher in the field proposed a new paradigm within the process of evaluating the heritage of the republic, being argued due to the delimitation of the currents of the theory of evaluation to the contemporary stage. the author argues the correctness of the evaluation theory based on the value based on low entropy, the appropriat eness of developing the method of estimating the actual value of the goods according to the entropic and classified value. this paradigm imposes ways of evaluating public assets in emerging economies as a result of highlighting the particularities of the public heritage assessment and the elaboration of the methodology for the evaluation of public assets in the republic of moldova (albu, 2012). the assessment importance of the value of economic entities in the republic of moldova, was initially highlighted during the period of privatization and restructuring of enterprises, which was considered as an important indicator in the development of the real estate market and the market for evaluation services, respectively of the evaluation activity. at the stage of privatization of theoretical and scientifical journal 20 june no. 1/2021 enterprises, the primary concern focused on the correct calculation of the value of assets for privatization, including the approval, modification and completion of normative acts in the field of privatization by the government of the republic of moldova, included in judgment no. 561 of 10.08.1995. i will mention that for the mass privatization of enterprises the method of republican auctions with subscription to shares was applied, with the participation of 3.1 million citizens or 89 percent of the holders of property vouchers. over the course of a year and a half, 15 republican auctions with stock underwriting, 94 auctions and 11 public contests were held. as a result, 2235 enterprises (in whole or in part) and 191 thousand apartments were privatized in exchange for property vouchers. subsequently, the evaluation activity was established by the law on evaluation activity, no. 989-xv of 18.04.2002, in which we find the definition of the general concept of evaluation, with the exception of the definition of value. the most important issues put forward for debate and resolution were: the organization of the framework of the evaluation work, the review of the legal, methodological and practical aspects of the evaluation work. in this context, in 2003, the provisional regulation on the evaluation of immovable property, drawn up under the 2002 law, without including methods and techniques for the evaluation of enterprises as property complexes, was approved, and "the sta te agency for land relations and cadaster had to draw up appropriate measures for the application of the provisions of the nominated regulation in order to estimate the market value of real estate by valuation undertakings, regardless of the type of ownership and the organizational-legal form". simultaneously, in the context of globalization, state capacity to shape the national economic policy, including the using of attracted foreigner funds and resources, operational efficiency of natural, resources, intellectual capacity growth, location and internalization advantages, connections to world markets can increase (plaskova et al., 2018), (spivakovskyy et al., 2019), (prodanova et al., 2019). currently, in the republic of moldova the law on evaluation activity no. 989-xv of 18.04.2002 is valid, published on 16-07-2002 in official monitor no. 102 art. 773, version in force from 17.08.18 on the basis of amendments by lp173 from 26.07.18, mo309-320/17.08.18 art.492. the central public administration body is the agency for land and cadaster relations of the republic of moldova, which carries out the state policy in the field of land relations, cadaster, geodesy, cartography, geoinformatics, subordinated by the government of the republic of moldova according to government decision no. 383 of 12 may 2010,with subsequent amendments and additions. on 21 april 2018, representatives of the institute of standardization of moldova (ism), ministries, public associations of assessors, academia and the private sector participated in the first meeting of the working group on the elaboration of moldovan evaluation standards that took place in the premises of the agency for land and cadaster relations of the republic of moldova. the meeting participants discussed the subject related to the takeover and publication of internat ional and european standards for the evaluation of goods, developed by the international assessment standards council (ivsc) and the european group of evaluators' associations (tegova). at the same time, in order to ensure an effective collaboration betwee n ism and arfc, the technical committee for standardization ct 64 "evaluation of assets" was established, in order to streamline the process of taking over, adopting and implementing in the republic of moldova the european and international standards for the evaluation of real estate (elaborarea standardelor moldoveneti, f.a., 2018). it is known that the evaluation activity is regulated by the evaluation standards. the european assessment standards state: "evaluation is the process of estimating value", and in the international accounting standards the valuation is defined as a process by which the values at which the structures of the financial statements will be recognized in the balance sheet and in the profit and loss account"[ias 2000:64]. the international assessment standards state that: "the evaluation is intended to express and certify the value, correctly and unambiguously, in accordance with national and supranational legislation, in accordance with the valuation standards and accounting standards between valuations in order to build indices that reflect financial performance and consistency" (champness, 1997). http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=334598 economy and sociology 21 june no. 1/2021 it should be noted that the international assessment standards committee (ivsc), since 1981, has been developing international evaluation standards (ivss). since 1997, the e uropean association of evaluators (tegova), which develops the european assessment standards (evs), has also been part of this activity. those standards include: the economic, financial and cultural peculiarities of several countries of the european community. in the same vein, we recall that the work of assessor was first practiced in england in 1868, through the creation of the organization of real estate evaluators, currently – the royal institution of chartered. the main objective of this organization i s to remedy the evaluation process, but also to promote the evaluator profession. the university discipline of evaluator is taught in the institute of evaluation, formerly the american institute of real estate evaluators of north america, since 1932(bîrcă, 2020). in this context, we note that the profession of evaluator in romania emerged in 1992, with the establishment of the national association of evaluators in the country. t he evaluation activity was regulated by the national assessment standards (evs) until 2000, after which they were replaced by international evaluation standards (ivss), and the national association of authorized evaluators of romania [anevar, 2020] was affiliated with the ivsc. anevar is the institute of research in the field of evaluation, established in 1995 under the name iroval. the practical evaluation work is carried out on the basis of the anevar evaluation standards and the code of ethics of the eva luator profession, developed by anevar. the evaluation work is in line with international practice in the field of evaluation, these standards being designed on the basis of international standards, to which have been added elements related to the regulation of evaluation practice in romania, through the methodological guides. the set of standards shall contain the practical work of evaluating undertakings and shall include: ✓ general standards: sev 100 general framework (ivs general framework), sev 101 evaluation terms of reference (ivs 101), sev 102 implementation (ivs 102), sev 103 reporting (ivs 103). ✓ asset standards: enterprises, trade fund and other intangible assets, sev 200 enterprises and business participations (ivs 200), sev 210 intangible assets (ivs 210), gev 600 enterprise assessment. thus, as of 31 may 2012, the evaluation standards have become mandatory for evaluation work following the entry into force of ordinance no 24/2011 on certain measures in the field of asset valuation [og 24/2011]. the evaluator shall take all measures to ensure that all sources of information that have been used are adequate and credible for carrying out the assessment. the standard of assessment practice gn 6 "enterprise assessment" states that "the evaluator will follow the reasonable steps to verify the accuracy and credibility of the sources of information and whether they are consistent with the practices in the markets and places where the evaluation is carried out" (standarde | anevar, f.a.). the most frequent, the following economic concepts are applied in the company evaluation activity: ownership, value, ability to generate profit, which means that the value of the enterprise is based on its ability to profit from activities for the owner. as a result, that value is based on the company's profits, which will be obtained if the business complies with the principle of continuity. only if the present value of the profits, which would result if the whole undertaking were liquidated (liquidation value), exceeds the value of the business as an undertaking in operation, would the liquidation value be presented as the value of the undertaking. the calculation of the value of the enterprise as the value of the discounted earnings can be created on the capitalization methodology or on the updated monetary flow techniques (ţîrlea, 2012, p.15). the value of the entity is determined by internal and external factors (figure 1). theoretical and scientifical journal 22 june no. 1/2021 figure 1. factors determining the value of the entity source: developed by authors. in the opinion of the authors, it is necessary to evaluate the entity for several reasons: the existence of factors having a stable impact on the value of the entity, for example: influences related to the existence of free prices and changes in the exchange ratio of the national currency; the internal management of each undertaking, i.e. depreciation policies and accounting policies; depreciation of fixed capital; management accounting. for a qualitative assessment, all price changes in the market must be identified, it is necessary to find and measure the impact of these changes on the value of the goods in each undertaking, but also of each undertaking as a whole by using professional evaluation procedures. in accordance with paragraph 22 of gev 600, the assessment of the entity's economic situation shall be carried out by analyzing the financial statements in monetary and percentage terms, using specific financial indicators (figure 2). figure 2. assessment of the entity's economic situation using specific financial indicators (in monetary and percentage terms) source: developed by authors based on gev 600. the value of the entity is determined by: the internal factors of the entity turnover profit equity borrowed capital dividend policy etc. external factors of the entity economic growth at the level of national economy and at the branch level the interest rate the economics of the agents acting on the company's market and, in general, in the respective economy, etc. inflation assessment of the economic situation of the entity purpose monetary terms establishing trends and relationships between an entity's income and expense accounts over time. (these trends and relationships are used to estimate the estimated economic benefits over the future, as well as the capital requirement to enable the entity to generate those economic benefits) purpose percentage terms compare income and expense items in profit and loss accounts with the total income obtained, as well as the items in the balance sheet with the total assets. (percentage analysis is used to compare trends in the relationship over time between revenue and expenditure, or between the balance sheet items of the enterprise in question, or to compare these trends with those of similar entities) purpose financial indicators compare the financial performance and relative risk of the entity in question with those of similar entities. economy and sociology 23 june no. 1/2021 data sources and used methods the study consists of theoretical-methodological research on the approach of the value of economic entities, including: analysis of literature, study of international assessment standards, european assessment standards and national assessment standards approved by the government of the republic of moldova, which constitute normative acts applied by evaluators. in the practical part, we focused on the method of comparison in the market valuation of the enterprise. results of own research and discussions as a result of the research of the specialized literature, especially regarding the specifics of the classification of the economic evaluation procedure, we found that the opinions regarding the classification of the evaluation of the economic value of the entity are different. thus, in the view of dumitresсu d. et al., “evaluations can be classified according to 5 criteria: 1. according to the goal pursued; 2. by the method used; 3. from the point of view of the evaluated object; 4. according to the beneficiary of the evaluation; 5. according to the position of the evaluator (dragotă et al., f.a. 2002, p. 26). instead, researcher tirlea m.r. reports that the evaluation of the value of an enterprise for different purposes allows the classification of evaluations according to 6 criteria: 1. from the point of view of the object of evaluation; 2. from the point of view of the purpose of the evaluation; 3. from the point of view of the beneficiary of the evaluation; 4. depending on the position of the evaluator towards the enterprise; 5. from the point of view of the evaluation method used; 6. in terms of value used (ţîrlea, 2012b, p. 28). thus, we graphically present the criteria for classifying evaluations in figure 3. a b figure 3. criteria for classification of assessments source: developed by authors based on (dragotă et al., 2002, p. 26). according to the information presented in figure 3, we note that the result of the classification of evaluations highlights a criterion that distinguishes the position of the two researchers, this is the classification of the evaluations in terms of the value used: valuations based on market value, which we appreciate as a welcome complement to more real estimation of the value of the entity. according to the authors, this supplement is considered to be criteria, however, we consider that the criteria scheme of evaluations can be supplemented by the following criterion: by type of activity of the economic entity. according to this criterion, valuations are classified in valuations for publicly traded economic entities and valuations for non-listed entities (figure 4). figure 4. criteria for classification of completed assessments source: developed by authors. evaluation according to: 1. the purpose pursued: 2. the method used 3. the evaluated object 4. the beneficiary of the evaluation 5. the evaluator's position evaluation according to: 1. the object of evaluation 2. the purpose of the evaluation 3. the beneficiary of the evaluation 4. the evaluator' s position 5. the evaluation method used 6. the value used evaluation according to: 1. the object of evaluation 2. the purpose of the evaluation 3. the beneficiary of the evaluation 4. the evaluator's position 5. the evaluation method used 6. the value used 7. the type of activity of the economic entity listed on the stock exchange unlisted on the stock exchange theoretical and scientifical journal 24 june no. 1/2021 one of the objectives of the study is to choose the most relevant method for evaluating the enterprise on a specific case, taking into account the three approaches used to estimate the value of enterprises. in the republic of moldova, in practice, three main approaches are applied for estimating the value of enterprises – through income, through spending and market (comparative). the general picture of the evaluation process of enterprises in the republic of moldova can be presented by the following characteristics: in the evaluation of the entity it is important to know the specific adjustments applicable to the different valuation methods according to the given situation; from the point of view of the financial information provided by the capital market, there is no sufficient correlation between traditional performance indicators and average market rates the valuation of the undertaking based on three value approaches (active or costs, income and comparison) is promoted; the mechanical application of comparison evaluation is a challenge for the current economic situation, which can lead to errors; a particular importance must be given to the professionalism of the assessor in the application of the evaluation methods; when the method is selected, the evaluator must take into account the context of his mission, determine the relevance of the methods according to the field of evaluation, quality, credibility and relevance of the available information, the appropriated objective of the evaluation. however, it should be noted that the direct application of classic methods in the republic of moldova is difficult due to different objective reasons as: the insufficient development of the domestic securities market; limited access to information; the non-interference of the intervention has a large number of adjustments due to the lack of transparency in the accounting; long-term planning, in actual conditions, due to difficulties in the approach application of the revenue method on evaluation; the accounting assessment of the assets is significantly reduced compared to the market assessment. in this context, we report that all methods of approaching the market for business valuation are based on the principle of competition, according to which, in a free market, the interaction between supply and demand will bring the price of business assets to a certain equilibrium. turning to the market approach which includes the comparison method, i note that this approach is aimed at setting market limits by analyzing the prices normally paid to companies that are competing with the company that has been assessed. prices are analyzed using appropriate criteria. the direct comparison method sometimes requires adjustments. the mechanism for using this method involves the use of company accounting data, in addition to market and price indicators. this method uses two types of values: market value and liquidation value. in the context of this study, i would point out that a particular contribution to the market valuation of the undertaking is provided by the comparison method. this refers to the analysis and comparison of the business that is evaluated with competitive companies operating in the market. information for this method is obtained from open stock markets, previous transactions with business assets and the absorption market. the comparative method is based on comparing the value of the company with similar undertakings on the market according to their ownership. in practice, it is difficult to obtain accurate data, as market information about competitors may be inaccessible or distorted. in addition, competition obliges entrepreneurs to act unconventionally, which in turn shapes the specifics of each business. the comparison in this case becomes ineffective. this approach to business valuation is very similar to the comparable sales method used in the real estate valuation. the market price of the shares of companies in the same line of business that are actively bought and sold on the open and free market may be an indicator of the market value of transactions involving a sufficient number of shares. the main task of the evaluator is to select a similar undertaking for the comparative study. the essence of the comparative approach is that the assessed undertaking and the rights transferred to it are compared with rights and similar undertakings that have been sold on the market recently. during the comparison process, sales data is used to deduce the market value of the company being evaluated. economy and sociology 25 june no. 1/2021 an important aspect when applying the approach studied is the requirement for the availability of reliable and high-quality information required for evaluation. if the evaluator can find data on several similar sales that form a sufficiently representative sample, then he will have more confidence in the reliability of the original information. similar undertakings should be comparable in terms of the following indicators, which are basic benchmarks for comparison: the business must be of the same type; the size of the business (sales) must be comparable; the form of ownership (rights to the undertaking) must be similar (smirnickij and čirkin, 2013) depending on the purpose of the evaluation and the specific context of the evaluation, the comparative approach involves the use of three main methods: the capital market method; market transaction method; the method of industry coefficients. the capital market method (or peer company method) is based on the use of prices generated by the open capital market. in this method, the basis for comparison is the price of a share of companies or public enterprises. in the classical assessment, this method is used to assess a minority holding. in this context, we will make a concrete point with reference to the methods of market evaluation, implemented in cis countries, which in most cases correspond to the globally recognized approaches and methods. at the same time, a specific feature of the assessment in these countries is its excessive regulation. being reflected in national normative acts, the evaluation methods need to be applied unconditionally and involve the application of established algorithms (buzu, 2011, p. 402). however, in recent years, there has been a wider trend of application, including in the republic of moldova, of the international and european assessment standards. the market transaction method is also called the sales method, it focuses on the purchase price of an undertaking as a whole or on a control stake. the industry coefficient method (industrial multiplier method, price ratio method) shall be used if the evaluator considers that comparable sales data are insufficient and their reliability questionable. in this case, due to insufficient statistical or public sales data, different industrial and regional relationships may be used. in the practice of developed countries, sectoral coefficients are calculated on the basis of long-term statistical observations of the sales prices of companies in certain sectors and their most important financial and production characteristics (shannon, 1988). as a result of the study, the following advantages of the comparative approach to business evaluation can be distinguished: the use of direct market benchmarks, the minimum number of adjustments, which fully reflect the market view of the undertaking's 'value'; allows an express rapid assessment of the value of the undertaking; can be used to validate cost reference values derived from other approaches. at the same time, we will also report some of the identified disadvantages of the given approach: for proper use, careful selection of appropriate analogue objects and collection of a large amount of information about them is necessary, which is far from always feasible, especially in the context of a small and non-transparent market in the republic of moldova; depends, inevitably, on the efficiency and current state of the market. at the same time, according to romania's experience, we note that in order to carry out the evaluation of the sev-2018 international standard presents three types of approaches embodied in: 1. market approach; 2. income-based approach; 3. the asset-based approach. i. the market approach is based on the comparison of the assessed entity with other similar undertakings. comparison of the company valued with other companies through this type of approach involves: ✓ comparison with entities that have been traded on the free market; ✓ comparison with similar entities with holdings in undertakings that have been traded on the free market; ✓ comparison with similar entities, with shares that have been traded on the free market. theoretical and scientifical journal 26 june no. 1/2021 in order to compare the evaluated entity with similar ones, data and information will be used to highlight the common comparison characteristics. it is important that this data and information are able to provide all the characteristics necessary to carry out comparability. comparative coordinates that ensure comparability refer to legal conditions, ownership, legal restrictions, location, physical characteristics, available utilities, financing conditions, conditions of sale, market conditions, zoning and best use. therefore, the market approach in the valuation of the undertaking, in accordance with c15, ivs 200, consists of comparing the subject undertaking with: ✓ other similar undertakings with participation in similar undertakings traded on the market; ✓ relevant transactions with the participations of the subject enterprise; ✓ previous transactions. capital markets provide sources of information on the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of similar undertakings. the analysis of a quantitative but also qualitative nature, according to ivs 200, requires the evaluator to identify the representative characteristics of the subject undertaking which should be analyzed in comparison with those of the undertakings identified as similar which involve the analysis: 1. in the area of the geographical area in which the undertakings concerned operate; 2. the level of profit; 3. the level of sales; 4. the structure of sales; 5. the level of assets; 6. asset structure; 7. the level of profit margins; 8. growth forecasts; etc. ii. the income-based approach illustrates the entity's ability to generate revenue through techniques to update future benefits. the income approach involves updating income streams. specifically, this method estimates the value of an entity based on the present value of future benefits. in practice, two methods are used: (i) discounted net cash flow aimed at updating net cash flows for the forecast period with a discount rate and (ii) the dividend method. the income approach is a method of yield that illustrates the entity's ability to generate revenue through updating techniques. the purpose of applying this method is to obtain the value of an entity by calculating the present value of the anticipated benefits based on the revenue and cost structure presented in the balance sheet that reflects the economic and financial situation of the assessed entity resulting in the entity's ability to generate cash flows over a period of time. iii. the choice of the asset valuation of the assessed entity involves estimating the value using methods based on the market value of the assets from which the liabilities are deducted. the balance sheet at the time of valuation, the company's assets and liabilities are those that play the basic role in this type of valuation. the asset approach usually applies to early-stage or newly established undertakings whose profits or cash flows cannot be credibly determined. therefore, by generalizing, we point out that for the purpose of assessing the undertaking, the comparison involves: ✓ all calculations made by the evaluator are carried out in a similar way, both for the undertaking under the subject matter and for similar undertakings which have been studied for research and evaluation; ✓ the price data are valid at the time of the assessment; ✓ data collected on financial indicators of similar undertakings may be historical information on financial indicators and the nature of the information collected; ✓ statistical indicators of a medium, median, harmonic mean nature must be motivated by the evaluator; ✓ aspects of the adjustment of financial indicators must be adequately substantiated; ✓ the multipliers used require the evaluator to argue the option for them; ✓ the market information of similar undertakings must be relevant to the assessment of the undertaking subject; ✓ adjustments to market information should be explained in the evaluation report; economy and sociology 27 june no. 1/2021 ✓ previous transactions may be considered comparable only if the adjustments can be substantiated; ✓ application of premiums or discounts is possible to reflect different levels of control, liquidity/solvency, etc. for practical exemplification, ten entities similar to the evaluated subject entity were selected in order to determine the statistical indicators consisting of the calculation of the median and the arithmetic mean. at the time of assessment, the indicators related to the subject entity are presented as follows: price per share 90 lei, net accounting asset 190, net accounting asset per share 2, net accounting asset price 1.05 and financial return 8%, according to the graphic representation below. figure 5. the situation of the entity (s) evaluated source: developed by authors. according to the data in figure 5, we find that in order to make an estimate of the market value of the subject enterprise we assessed as net accounting price/asset and the relationship between profitability and net accounting price/asset proved to be relevant. financial profitability is dependent on the price per share and the book value of the share. the shares constitute shares of the subscribed and paid-up share capital. the market value of the shares is determined as the ratio between the market value of the equity and the number of shares issued. the study took into account ten economic entities in the market: a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i,j. these economic entities are comparable to the subject entity. the comparison criteria are translated into: price per share, net accounting asset, net accounting asset per share, net accounting asset price and financial return. at the time of the evolution, the indicators related to comparable entities were provided to us by an active market, as presented according to table 1 and related graphical representation. table 1 situation of entities similar to the entity assessed no. crt. the evaluated entity price/ action net accounting assets net accounting asset / share price / net accounting assets financial profitability (%) 0. 1 2 3 4 5 6 1. a 90 190 2,00 1,55 7 2. b 80 165 2,06 1,24 10 3. c 85 170 2,00 1,17 6 4. d 87 165 1,89 1,14 8 5. and 77 170 2,20 1,29 7 6. f 86 172 2,00 1,16 5 7. g 71 152 2,14 1,4 4 8. h 79 142 1,79 1,26 6 9. i 91 198 2,17 1,09 10 10. j 74 160 2,16 1,35 10 11. arithmetic mean 1,21 7,4 12. median 1,20 7,36 source: developed by authors. 90 190 2 1,05 8 price/share net accounting assets net accounting asset/share price/net accounting assets financial profitability, % theoretical and scientifical journal 28 june no. 1/2021 the calculations carried out led us: ✓ at an arithmetic average for the net accounting asset price of 1.21 and the financial return is 7.4%; ✓ the median is 1.20 at the net accounting asset price and 7.36% at the financial return. comparable entities offer benchmarks for trading evaluated entities. the comparison method reflects the best variant of the share price in the market. figure 6. arithmetic and median mean, calculated for entities similar to the entity assessed source: developed by authors. actions represent financial assets. as a result, they can be assessed on the basis of the three approaches used in the evaluation: the comparison method, the cost method and the future flow method. the market value of a share is subject to the stock exchange rate. in our case it is an active market. shares are traded on a market that is thus efficient that the prices that have been registered for comparable transactions are credible. the stock exchange rate determines, on the one hand, the market value of a share, and, on the other hand, demonstrates that the chosen method – the comparison method – is the most representative method of valuation. conclusions therefore, the value of the economic entity has become a benchmark for the development of all capacities in order to achieve short and long-term performance, to involve human resources, material means, etc. by generalizing, we note that generally accepted methods for estimating the value of the entity are an indication of the success and efficient activity of both the enterprise and the assessor. only because of the accurate and complex estimate of the value of the economic entity will we get a clear picture of both the successes and the gaps and failures to be removed. effective management, following an evaluation report, will make every effort to achieve performing performance in economic activity by developing a capacity-based activity plan, but also taking into account the means of achieving performance. we believe that in order to improve the evaluation activity it is necessary to multilaterally investigate the situation on the domestic and foreign market, in particular with regard to supply and demand through open access to the necessary information; strict observance of the regulatory acts in force on the assessment of the overall value of economic entities (vgea), but also the adjustment and offering of remedial proposals as appropriate; direct state support and the creation of effective collaboration; and last but not least for the republic of moldova – the operation of the land and cadaster relations agency with all representatives in the field of evaluation. in the global economy, the government must realize, first and foremost, the interests of domestic business as the most active, creative and aggressive elements of society, strongly supporting and guiding its expansion, considering it as one of the key instruments of national economic development and welfare. inside their own society, government must support the people with its desire for justice and for more equitable resources’ distribution. sustainable economic progress in a complex system of 1,21 1,2 7,4 7,36 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 arithmetic mean median price / net accounting assets financial profitability (%) economy and sociology 29 june no. 1/2021 world economic relations requires from the modern government to develop a set of measures, aimed at consolidating the domestic business. the businesses ability to form the transnational constructs of inputs and finished products distribution, is segmenting the national economy, by creating within the macroeconomic system the complex of autonomous ‘strategic business zones’, which are a weakly regulated by government due to the networking effects. as the condition of business consolidation, competitiveness of domestic production improving has „to become a new concept of market-based government functions, of public management, which infrastructure is, first and foremost, egovernment” (ushakov et al., 2019, p. 2566-2573). in order to make an estimate of the market value of the subject entity, the g/l net price/asset ratio and the relationship between profitability and g/l net price/asset are assessed as relevant. financial profitability is dependent on the price per share and the book value of the share. thus, based on the study carried out, we will highlight the most important results obtained: 1. as a result, on the basis of the calculations made in the practical part, it was found that an economic entity can change its own value by the way its values are profitable (table 1). 2. the difference between the classifications of evaluations in the literature was identified, it was found that the criterion distinguishing the position of the two researches is the classification of valuations in terms of value used, valuations based on market value and valuations based on values different from market value (figure 3). 3. the criterion scheme of the evaluations was completed with the following criterion: “by type of activity of the economic entity: listed on the stock exchange and unlisted on the stock exchange” (figure 3). 4. for the practical aspect of the investigation, we focused on the method of comparison in the market valuation of the entity, establishing the statistical indicators that consisted in the calculation of the median and the arithmetic mean (figure 6). in conclusion, it is noted that in the evaluation process of the entity a decision-making function falls to the selected methods, applied skillfully and skillfully by the evaluator in the evaluation process, i.e. it is a matter of the level of competence, theoretical knowledge and skills to apply them in practice, but not least to its professionalism. the determining factors of the value of the economic entity demonstrate that current policies must be focused on improving the environment both economically and socially. references 1. albu, s. 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(2019). governance efficiency in conditions of the world economy globalization and digitalization. journal of advanced research in law and economics, 10(8), 2566-2573-2566–2573. https://doi.org/10.14505/jarle.v10.8(46).35 article history received 22 september 2020 accepted 05 february 2021 economy and sociology 53 no. 1/ 2019 moldovan external trade with eu, cis and other countries: achievements and challenges alexandru ceban1, phd student, scientific researcher, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova the foreign trade of a state represents a determinant factor in assessing its economic statute among the neighbours and in the whole world. the actuality of the studied topic is determined by the changing trade relations that the republic of moldova is passing through in the last years. republic of moldova holds the necessary criteria for becoming a competitive country in the region in terms of the manufactured and marketed goods. the aim of the study is to evaluate the foreign trade of the republic of moldova, by emphasizing the main traded groups of products, trade partners as well as to analyze the average price index and physical volume index of imports and exports. the paper also comes with an analysis of re-export and re-import, which represents a peculiarity for our country’s trade pattern. research methods that have been used within the paper are the following: analogy, systemic approach, statistical and scientific analysis, laspeyres index method. the obtained results focus on the recovery of the foreign trade between 2015 and 2017 with higher revival rates of exports, and a growing reorientation of exports towards the european union and other countries’ markets. keywords: import, export, foreign trade, economy, republic of moldova, average price index, physical volume index. comerțul exterior al unui stat reprezintă un factor determinant în evaluarea statutului său economic între vecini și celelalte state. actualitatea temei studiate este determinată de schimbarea relațiilor comerciale pe care republica moldova le parcurge în ultimii ani. republica moldova posedă toate premisele necesare pentru a deveni o țară competitivă în regiune, prin prisma produselor fabricate și comercializate. scopul studiului este de a evalua comerțul exterior al republicii moldova, accentuând principalele grupuri de produse tranzacționate, partenerii comerciali, precum și analiza indicelui mediu al prețurilor și indicelui volumului fizic al importurilor și exporturilor. în lucrare se regăsește, de asemenea, o analiză a reexportului și a reimportului, care reprezintă o particularitate pentru modelul comercial al țării noastre. metodele de cercetare utilizate în cadrul lucrării sunt următoarele: analogie, abordare sistemică, analiză statistică și științifică, metoda indicelui laspeyres. rezultatele obținute se concentrează pe redresarea comerțului exterior între 2015 și 2017, cu rate mai mari de recuperare a exporturilor și o reorientare tot mai mare a exporturilor spre piețele uniunii europene și ale altor țări. cuvinte-cheie: import, export, comerț exterior, economie, republica moldova, indicatori laspeyres. внешняя торговля государства является определяющим фактором при оценке его экономического статуса среди соседей и других государств. актуальность изучаемой темы определяется изменением торговых отношений, которое сложилось в молдове за последние годы. республика молдова имеет все необходимые предпосылки для того, чтобы стать конкурентоспособной страной в регионе с точки зрения выпускаемой и продаваемой продукции. целью исследования является оценка внешней торговли республики молдова, выделение основных групп реализуемой продукции, торговых партнеров, а также анализ индекса средних цен и индекса физического объема импорта и экспорта. в данной роботе также содержится обзор реэкспорта и реимпорта, который является особенностью коммерческой модели нашей страны. методы исследования, используемые в статье: аналогия, системный подход, статистический и научный анализ, метод индекса ласпейреса. результаты сфокусированы на восстановлении внешней торговли между 2015 и 2017 годами, с более высокими темпами восстановления экспорта и растущей переориентацией экспорта на ес и другие рынки. ключевые слова: импорт, экспорт, внешняя торговля, экономика, республика молдова, показатели ласпейреса. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-04 jel classification: f10 udc: 339.5(478:4) 1 © alexandru ceban, ceban_alexander@yahoo.com theoretical and scientifical journal 54 no. 1 / 2019 introduction. the foreign trade of the republic of moldova has undergone some significant changes in the last seven years. changing relations with cis countries and signing of the dcfta with eu represented the determinant factors for changing the vector of the external trade of the country. the trade pattern in terms of both, exports and imports, has changed during the recent years, showing a smaller degree of dependence on the “old” trade partners. based on the applied research methods, this paper aims to present an analysis of the current situation of the moldovan foreign trade, thus highlighting the groups of products mostly intended for export and import. the use of the laspeyres index method allows us to evaluate the price index and physical volume index, thus determining the real physical volumes and the real price difference for certain products from the commodity groups. the issue of external trade and its impact on the economic development of a country, including the in depth analysis of the trade in term of laspeyres index, has been studied by various foreign scholars, such as pomfret r. (pomfret, r. 2005), lipsey r. (lipsey, r., 1991), helpman and krugman (helpman, e., krugman, p. 1985), etc. moldovan scientists that analyzed the external trade of the republic of moldova in a broad sense are the following: stratan a. and clipa v., (stratan, a., clipa v., 2011), galben i., (galben, i., 2012), ganciucov v. and ceban a. (ganciucov, v., ceban a. 2015), ceban a. (ceban, a. 2017) and others. the given study is based primarily on analysis of statistical data on foreign trade provided by the national bureau of statistics and wits database. applied research methods for a better assessment of the current situation related to the external trade of the republic of moldova, the following research methods have been used: analogy, systemic approach, statistical analysis of the databases and scientific analysis of the used literature and methodology. at the same time, the author has used the laspeyres index to measure the changes between two periods of time in the total cost of purchasing the basket of goods and services that is representative comparative to the base period. the methodology has at least three practical advantages: it is easily explained to the public; it can make repeated use of the same data on consumer purchases; and it doesn’t need to be revised, assuming that users are satisfied with the laspeyres concept. another notable advantage is that the laspeyres is consistent in aggregation down to the lowest level of aggregation. (consumer..., 2004, ceban, a. 2017). figure 1. trade balance of the republic of moldova, 2010 – 2017, mil. usd source: elaborated by the author based on the data of the national bureau of statistics. 3855,29 5191,27 5212,93 5492,39 5316,96 3986,82 4020,36 4831,30 1541,49 2216,82 2161,88 2428,3 2339,53 1966,83 2044,61 2425,00 -2313,80 -2974,45 -3051,05 -3064,09 -2977,43 -2019,99 -1975,75 -2406,30 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 import export trade balance economy and sociology 55 no. 1/ 2019 results obtained during the period of 2010-2017 the balance of the foreign trade had experienced increasing as well as decreasing trends (figure 1). this result is due both, to imports, which increased in 2011-2014 with maximum values in 2013, but which has diminished its value in the years 2015 and 2016 with a tendency to recover in 2017. the exports are following the import’s trends, but in a slower way. although the export of manufactured goods in 2017 did not reach yet the value of 2013, it increased compared to 2010 by 25.3%. nevertheless, compared with the previous years of decline (2015 and 2016) the year of 2017 brought a growth of 18.6% compared to 2016, mainly due to the recovery of the banking sector after a crisis period of 2015-2016, increase in production of most of the commodities, as well as to the strengthening of the national currency. cooperation with the eu countries, which accounted for 65.9% of total exports (table 1), represented one of the main drivers of the above-mentioned increase. the import in 2017 reached a value of 4831.3 mil. usd, which accounted for a 20.2% increase compared to 2016 and 57.3% compared to 2010. this result is largely due to imports from the european union countries, which reached 49.5% of the total import in 2017. table 1 foreign trade of the republic of moldova in 2017 indicators 2017 structure % the degree of influence on the increase (+), decrease (-) of the indicators mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 2016 2017 total export, of which: 2425 118.6 100 100 3.9 18.6 cis countries 462.8 111.8 20.3 19.1 -3.9 2.3 eu countries 1596.9 119.9 65.1 65.9 5.8 12.9 other countries 365.3 122.4 14.6 15.1 2.1 3.2 total import, of which: 4831.3 120.2 100 100 0.8 20.1 cis countries 1206 122.4 25.6 24.9 0.2 4.4 eu countries 2389.2 121.1 49.1 49.5 0.4 10.3 other countries 1236.1 121.3 25.4 25.6 0.1 5.4 deficit of the trade balance, of which: -2406.3 121.8 100 100 -2.1 21.7 cis countries -743.2 121.2 31.04 30.9 4.3 6.5 eu countries -792.3 123.4 32.5 32.9 -4.7 7.6 other countries -870.8 120.8 36.5 36.2 -1.8 7.6 source: elaborated by the author based on the data of the national bureau of statistics. import after analyzing the imports during the period 2011-2017, one can note a stability over the period 2011-2014, which was followed by a significant reduction in 2015 and a slight increase in 2016, with signs of marked revival in 2017. this reduction was conditioned by several factors, including the reduction of remittances, the reduction of foreign direct investment and the massive elimination of capital by individuals and businesses as a result of the banking problems that took place during the recent years. however, structurally examining the import over the years, one can observe a reorientation from the cis to the eu market. thus, at the beginning of the analyzed period, imports from cis countries had a share of 33% of the total imports, and in 2017 they fell to a level similar to imports from other countries, accounting for about 25%. eu imports in 2011 registered a 43.5% share, and over the years they strengthened their positions and in 2017 reached a 49.5% share of the total imports. in 2017, the european union, being the main trade economic partner, exported in the republic of moldova commodities valued at 2389.2 mil. usd, marking an increase of 21.1% compared to the previous year. the main import partners of the republic of moldova in the european union are romania, germany, italy, poland and france. altogether these five counties accounted for 68.2% of total imports in 2011 and 70.9% in 2017 registering an increase of 2.7%. theoretical and scientifical journal 56 no. 1 / 2019 figure 2. dynamics of imported goods, 2010-2017, mil. usd source: elaborated by the author based on the national bureau of statistics data. imports from cis countries also registered an increase in 2017, accounting for 22.4% compared to the previous year. among the cis countries, the main import partners for the republic of moldova between 2011 and 2017 were the russian federation, ukraine, belarus, uzbekistan and kazakhstan, which covered virtually all imports from cis countries over the analysed period or 99.2 % in 2011 and 99.9% in 2017. in terms of the import from the category of “other countries”, which marked an increase of 21.3% compared to 2016 (1236.1 mil. usd), the main import partners are china, turkey, usa, vietnam and japan. their share in 2011 accounted for 74.3%, and in 2017 they strengthened their positions to a share of 77.3% of the total imports from other countries. overall, the first 15 countries that export goods to the republic of moldova hold a share of 84.7% of the total import. the main 5 groups of commodities, which according to the commodity nomenclature for 2017 accounted for 60% of the total imported goods are the following: "machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles”, “mineral products”, “products of the chemical or allied industries”, "textiles and textile articles", "prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes". table 2 the most important 15 import countries country name import 2017 structure % the degree of influence on the increase (+), decrease (-) of exports total, mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 2016 2017 total 4831.4 120.2 100 100 0.8 20.17 romania 694.51 125.9 13.7 14.4 -0.1 3.5 russian federation 571.7 106.8 13.3 11.8 -0.01 0.9 ukraine 511.1 133.1 9.6 10.6 0.3 3.1 china 505.4 128.4 9.8 10.5 0.6 2.7 germany 390.6 123.4 7.9 8.1 -0.1 1.8 5191,3 5212,9 5492,4 5317,0 3986,8 4020,3 4831,3 1713,4 1623,7 1672,3 1449,3 1018,1 1027,4 1206,0 2256,3 2318,6 2472,1 2567,7 1954,3 1973,7 2389,2 1221,6 1270,6 1348,0 1300,0 1014,4 1019,2 1236,1 0,0 1000,0 2000,0 3000,0 4000,0 5000,0 6000,0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 total import cis countries eu countries other countries economy and sociology 57 no. 1/ 2019 country name import 2017 structure % the degree of influence on the increase (+), decrease (-) of exports total, mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 2016 2017 italy 331.3 118.0 7.0 6.9 0.04 1.2 turkey 304.3 111.9 6.8 6.3 -0.3 0.8 poland 165.7 125.4 3.3 3.4 0.2 0.8 belarus 114.6 113.1 2.5 2.4 0.4 0.3 france 112.7 125.3 2.2 2.3 0.2 0.5 hungary 99.6 124.4 2.0 2.1 0.2 0.4 austria 80.3 108.9 1.8 1.7 -0.4 0.1 bulgaria 74.1 128.6 1.4 1.5 -0.2 0.4 usa 70.2 131.8 1.3 1.5 0.06 0.4 czech republic 68.2 121.5 1.4 1.4 0.1 0.3 source: elaborated by the author based on the data of the national bureau of statistics. the explanation of the high import values for the first three groups of products mentioned above comes from the very moderate level of production registered in the republic of moldova, as well as from the population and market oriented towards “consumption” of the commodities from these groups. textiles are imported as a raw material and due to investments made by foreign entrepreneurs in the textile industry are processed and further exported under the form of clothes and articles of thereof. as for the group of “prepared foodstuff” tobacco, spirits and prepared food products have the greatest values of total imports in this group. table 3 import by group of goods structured by value, mil. usd code name of the commodity group 2017 structure % structural changes, p.p. mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 2017 total import 4831.3 120.1 100.0 100.0 x xvi. machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles 801.2 124.5 16.0 16.5 0.5 v. mineral products 774.2 122.8 15.6 16.0 0.3 vi. products of the chemical or allied industries 572.9 113.9 12.5 11.8 -0.6 xi. textiles and textile articles 398.3 115.2 8.6 8.2 -0.3 iv. prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 352.8 115.6 7.5 7.3 -0.2 xv. base metals and articles of base metal 343.9 125.5 6.8 7.1 0.3 xvii. vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment 294.6 126.8 5.7 6.1 0.3 vii. plastics and articles thereof; rubber and articles thereof 292.2 113.3 6.4 6.0 -0.3 ii. vegetable products 195.3. 113.7 4.2 4.0 -0.2 xx. miscellaneous manufactured articles 138.0 119.7 2.8 2.8 -0.01 i. live animals; animal products 131.5 122.9 2.6 2.7 0.06 theoretical and scientifical journal 58 no. 1 / 2019 xiii. articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products; glass and glassware 122.5 118.1 2.5 2.5 -0.04 ix. wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal; cork and articles of cork; manufactures of straw, of esparto or of other plaiting materials; basketware and wickerwork 105.8 124.1 2.1 2.1 0.07 x. pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; waste and scrap of paper or paperboard; paper and paperboard and articles thereof 88.0 112.1 1.9 1.8 -0.1 xviii. optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; clocks and watches; musical instruments; parts and accessories thereof 76.0 133.8 1.4 1.5 0.2 viii. raw hides and skins, leather, furskins and articles thereof; saddlery and harness; travel goods, handbags and similar containers; articles of animal gut (other than silkworm gut) 64.6 133.4 1.2 1.3 0.1 xii. footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, riding-crops and parts thereof; prepared feathers and articles made therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair 43.9 160.8 0.6 0.9 0.2 iii. animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes 25.7 105.4 0.6 0.5 -0.07 xiv. natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin 8.8 120.0 0.1 0.1 0.00 xxi. works of art, collectors pieces and antiques 1.1 27.9 0.1 0.0 -0.08 source: elaborated by the author based on the national bureau of statistics data. during the period of 2011-2013, the most important group of products was "mineral products". since 2013 it has been in a continuous decline, with little attempts to restore the situation. in 2017 it decreased by 38.39% compared to 2013, being overtaken by the group "machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles". this significant reduction of the mineral products group is largely due to reductions occurred in its subgroup, namely the "mineral fuels, mineral oils and products from distillation; bituminous materials; mineral wax", which has a share of about 98% of the given group over the last years and which also decreased in 2017 by 38.42% compared to 2013. the most significant increases in 2017 compared to the previous year were recorded within the groups "footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, ridingcrops and parts thereof; prepared feathers and articles made therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair", "optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or economy and sociology 59 no. 1/ 2019 surgical instruments and apparatus; clocks and watches; musical instruments; parts and accessories thereof", "raw hides and skins, natural fur and articles thereof", "vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment" and "base metals and articles of base metal". re-import during 2011-2017, there were no significant changes in the re-imported products. thus, the share of re-importations in the total imports in this period is insignificant, varying between 0.1 and 0.3%. in 2017 this indicator registered the value of 0.1%. export analyzing the evolution of exports during the years 2011-2017 (figure 3), we observe that although the total export has an oscillatory value with a maximum value in 2013 and tendencies of return in 2017, during the given period there is noted the reorientation of the export direction from the market of cis countries to the eu market. thus, if the export to the cis countries in 2011 had a share of 41.5%, it decreased to a share of 19.1% in 2017. on the other hand, exports to the eu countries in 2011 recorded 48.9%, marking an increase in the following years in percentage terms, reaching 65.9% of the total exports in 2017. it is also worth noting the increase in exports to other countries of the world from 9.7% in 2011 to 15.1% in 2017. figure 3. total export of goods in 2011-2017, mil. usd source: elaborated by the author based on the national bureau of statistics data. the first 15 countries that import goods from the republic of moldova account for a share of 84.5% of the total moldovan exports (table 4). although the exports from the eu countries increased in 2017 by 19.9% compared to the previous year (1596.9 mil. usd), the trade balance still remains negative, as for the other groups of countries. on the european market, the main importing countries of the local products are romania, which in the last years intensified its cooperation with the domestic producers, thus reaching 37.6% of the total exports to the eu countries in 2017, followed by italy, germany, the great britain and poland, which together make up about 77.7% of all consumers of moldovan products. exports in cis countries also recorded increased values, by 11.8% in 2017 compared to 2016 (462.8 mil. usd), the main consumer of domestic products being the russian federation, which, however, over the years 2011-2017 is gradually losing its positions. thus, if in 2011 russian federation held a share of 68%, then in 2017 this figure accounted for 54.9% of the total exports oriented towards the cis market, being followed by belarus, ukraine, georgia and kazakhstan. exports to other countries (besides eu and cis) has recorded the biggest increase (22.4%) compared to 2016. in terms of exports, the leader to other countries over the years 2011-2017 remained turkey. although the share of exports in these directions has increased significantly, turkey has substantially lost its position – from 34.2% in 2011 to 8.54% in 2017, followed by china, united states, georgia and iraq, which together account for 27.44% of total exports to other countries. 2216,8 2161,9 2428,3 2339,5 1966,8 2044,6 2425,0 919,3 928,1 923,2 735,6 492,3 414,2 462,8 1083,0 1013,4 1137,3 1246,0 1217,6 1331,9 1596,9 214,5 220,4 367,8 357,9 256,9 298,5 365,3 0,0 500,0 1000,0 1500,0 2000,0 2500,0 3000,0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 total export cis countries eu countries other countries theoretical and scientifical journal 60 no. 1 / 2019 carrying out an analysis of exports by countries without taking into consideration the destination market, one can notice that over the years the leader in this ranking, until 2014 was the russian federation, which due to the embargo imposed for moldova, was overtaken by romania, which is strengthening its position in the standings during the last years (ceban, a., 2017). italy, germany, the united kingdom and belarus are the next countries in this ranking, which throughout the 2011-2017 period remained almost unchanged. these countries in 2017 hold a share of 62% of the total exports of the republic of moldova. table 4 the most important 15 export countries country name export in 2017 structure % the degree of influence on the increase (+), decrease (-) of exports total, mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 2016 2017 total export 2425.0 118.6 100 100 4.0 18.6 1 romania 600.6 117.1 25.1 24.7 3.4 4.3 2 russian federation 254.5 109.1 11.4 10.5 -0.4 1.0 3 italy 236.0 119.3 9.7 9.7 0.0 1.9 4 germany 166.1 131.2 6.2 6.8 0.5 1.9 5 great britain 136.1 119.1 5.6 5.6 -1.2 1.1 6 belarus 110.0 106.3 5.1 4.5 -1.4 0.3 7 turkey 104.0 169.2 3.0 4.2 -0.1 2.1 8 poland 102.9 140.2 3.6 4.2 0.3 1.4 9 bulgaria 78.1 102.7 3.7 3.2 2.4 0.1 10 ukraine 65.5 131.8 2.4 2.7 0.2 0.8 11 france 50.8 113.6 2.2 2.1 0.1 0.3 12 switzerland 44.0 99.0 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 13 austria 40.8 150.0 1.3 1.6 0.3 0.7 14 czech republic 29.8 105.6 1.3 1.2 0.0 0.1 15 greece 29.4 100 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 source: elaborated by the author based on the data of the national bureau of statistics. the most exported commodity groups according to the combined nomenclature of goods are the following: "vegetable products", which hold 27.31% of the total exported goods, followed by "machines and apparatus, electrical equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders or reproducers, and parts and accessories of such apparatus", "prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes", "textiles and textile articles" and "miscellaneous manufactured articles". the monetary value and weight of these products in the total exported goods as compared to 2016 increased, reaching a share of 79.2% in 2017. table 5 export of the republic of moldova divided by groups of goods, 2016-2017 code name of the commodity group 2017 structure % structural changes, p.p. mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 2017 i live animals; animal products 47.1 117.2 1.9 1.9 -0.02 ii vegetable products 662.5 125.1 25.9 27.3 1.4 iii animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes 53.7 98.9 2.6 2.2 -0.4 economy and sociology 61 no. 1/ 2019 code name of the commodity group 2017 structure % structural changes, p.p. mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 2017 iv prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 367.7 114.3 15.7 15.1 -0.5 v mineral products 28.7 201.3 0.7 1.1 0.5 vi products of the chemical or allied industries 98.7 109.1 4.4 4.0 -0.34 vii plastics and articles thereof; rubber and articles thereof 33.4 93.6 1.7 1.3 -0.4 viii raw hides and skins, leather, furskins and articles thereof; saddlery and harness; travel goods, handbags and similar containers; articles of animal gut (other than silkworm gut) 20.8 87.1 1.2 0.8 -0.3 ix wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal; cork and articles of cork; manufactures of straw, of esparto or of other plaiting materials; basketware and wickerwork 10.5 108.8 0.4 0.4 -0.04 x pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; waste and scrap of paper or paperboard; paper and paperboard and articles thereof 13.2 107.9 0.6 0.5 -0.05 xi textiles and textile articles 346.7 112.8 15.0 14.3 -0.7 xii footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, riding-crops and parts thereof; prepared feathers and articles made therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair 34.0 115.8 1.4 1.4 -0.03 xiii articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products; glass and glassware 42.1 94.9 2.2 1.7 -0.4 xiv natural or cultured pearls, precious or semiprecious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin 1.2 160.1 0.04 0.05 0.01 xv base metals and articles of base metal 48.3 111.0 2.1 1.9 -0.1 xvi machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles 389.6 130.9 14.5 16.0 1.5 xvii vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment 41.4 150.6 1.3 1.7 0.4 xviii optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; clocks and watches; musical instruments; parts and accessories thereof 30.8 106.7 1.4 1.3 -0.1 xx miscellaneous manufactured articles 154.6 115.4 6.5 6.4 -0.2 xxi works of art, collectors pieces and antiques 0.0 28.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 source: elaborated by the author based on the data of the national bureau of statistics. analyzing the exports between 2010 and 2017, we can observe the considerable weight of the agri-food products. thus, in 2010, the share of these products accounted for 47.5% of the total exported goods. although the percentage share in 2011-2014 is decreasing, in the following period 2014-2015 it increases significantly in monetary values compared to the previous period. in the same time, it increased on average for the years 2015-2017, keeping the same share in the total exported goods. theoretical and scientifical journal 62 no. 1 / 2019 the agricultural sector of the republic of moldova holds a significant importance in the country’s economy. with a share of about 12% in gdp in the last years, it has a high degree of influence over the exports of the country. exports of vegetable products record high values mainly due to the export of low added value cultures such as cereals (wheat, sunflower and maize), and vegetables and fruits. therefore, in order to increase the sector’s competitiveness on the foreign markets, it is necessary to make investments along the most important value chain for each sector, so that the processed products would bring added value to the sector. table 6 dynamics of export of agri-food goods, 2010-2017, mil. usd code name of section / chapter 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 total export 1541.5 2216.8 2161.9 2428.3 2339.5 1966.8 2044.6 2425.0 i live animals; animal products 27.0 38.0 37.8 37.2 59.7 37.5 40.2 47.1 ii vegetable products 340.7 471.0 360.5 507.0 549.7 501.7 529.5 662.5 iii animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes 47.6 77.5 89.7 44.0 77.5 72.0 54.3 53.7 iv prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 316.9 330.6 390.9 427.3 378.4 303.3 321.5 367.7 agri-food products 732.2 917.1 878.9 1015.5 1065.4 914.5 945.5 1131.0 share in export, % 47.50 41.37 40.65 41.82 45.54 46.50 46.24 46.64 source: elaborated by the author based on the data of the national bureau of statistics. re-export re-export accounts for a significant share of the total value of goods exported by the republic of moldova. if in 2011 the re-export share in the total export constituted 45.18%, this indicator gradually decreased over the years, thus constituting 32.35% in 2017. figure 4. total export and total re-export during 2011-2017, mil. usd source: world bank, wits database, www.wits.worldbank.org 2216,82 2161,88 2428,3 2339,53 1966,84 2044,61 2424,97 1001,62 772,32 808,47 809,9 662,84 694,41 784,36 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 total export total re-export economy and sociology 63 no. 1/ 2019 the most significant groups of goods with a larger share of total re-exports are the following ones: "textiles and textile articles", which over the years 2011-2017 had a share of approximately 31%, with an increase of up to 38.3% in 2017. within this group, the largest re-exports are registered under the headings "articles of apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted”, "articles of apparel and clothing accessories, not knitted or crocheted" and "knitted or crocheted fabrics", which in turn have a coverage of 89.12% of the total group for the year 2017. the main partner countries in the re-export chapter are italy, the united kingdom, romania and turkey. "machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles", which in 2012 accounting for 10.65% of total re-exports had a steady increase in 2017 with a share of 23.14%. within the group, the most significant re-exports are carried out within the chapters: "machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles" and “nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof” which hold the total number of re-exports in the total for the given group for the year 2017. the main re-export countries are: romania, bulgaria, germany, russia and italy. "products of the chemical or allied industries" in the period 2012-2015 held a share of about 16%, with a reduction to 8.9% in 2017. this share is due to the re-export of "pharmaceutical products", "soap, organic surface-active agents, washing preparations, lubricating preparations, artificial waxes, prepared waxes, polishing or scouring preparations, candles and similar articles, modelling pastes, 'dental waxes' and dental preparations with a basis of plaster” and "essential oils and resinoids; perfumery, cosmetic or toilet preparations", which account for 95.3% of the total value of the re-exported products in the given group for the year 2017. the main re-export partners of the given group are: russian federation, ukraine, kazakhstan, poland and georgia. "miscellaneous manufactured articles" has a floating quota during 2011-2017, with 8% in 2011 and 5.6% in 2017 of all re-exported products. in 2017, the re-export of this group is entirely due to the categories of goods "toys, games, and sports requisites; parts and accessories thereof" and "miscellaneous articles", the main partners being the netherlands, germany, romania, the russian federation and the czech republic. "prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes". this group had a share of only 0.42% in 2011, then with different growth rates recorded a 4.4% share in 2017. maintaining this quota is due to the categories of goods "beverages, liquids alcohol and vinegar" and "tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes", which together constitute 91.55% of the total re-export of the given group for the year 2017. table 7 re-export of the republic of moldova divided by groups of goods, 2016-2017 code group name 2017 structure % structural changes, p.p. mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 i live animals; animal products 0.002 56.5 0.0005 0.0003 -0.0003 ii vegetable products 21.8 99.7 3.1 2.7 -0.3 iii animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes 1.3 137.8 0.1 0.2 0.03 iv prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 35.2 130.1 3.8 4.5 0.5 v mineral products 17.3 291.5 0.8 2.2 1.3 vi products of the chemical or allied industries 70.1 103.8 9.7 8.9 -0.7 theoretical and scientifical journal 64 no. 1 / 2019 code group name 2017 structure % structural changes, p.p. mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 vii plastics and articles thereof; rubber and articles thereof 13.1 58.5 3.2 1.6 -1.5 viii raw hides and skins, leather, furskins and articles thereof; saddlery and harness; travel goods, handbags and similar containers; articles of animal gut (other than silkworm gut) 16.7 83.8 2.8 2.1 -0.7 ix wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal; cork and articles of cork; manufactures of straw, of esparto or of other plaiting materials; basketware and wickerwork 2.1 96.1 0.3 0.3 -0.04 x pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; waste and scrap of paper or paperboard; paper and paperboard and articles thereof 4.3 107.9 0.5 0.5 -0.02 xi textiles and textile articles 300.6 111.6 38.8 38.3 -0.4 xii footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, riding-crops and parts thereof; prepared feathers and articles made therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair 25.6 111.8 3.3 3.2 -0.03 xiii articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products; glass and glassware 0.9 108.8 0.1 0.1 -0.004 xiv natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin 0.3 159.7 0.02 0.03 0.01 xv base metals and articles of base metal 19.4 89.7 3.1 2.4 -0.6 xvi machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles 181.5 132.1 19.8 23.1 3.3 xvii vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment 21.0 91.5 3.3 2.6 -0.6 xvii optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; clocks and watches; 9.1 168.7 0.7 1.2 0.4 economy and sociology 65 no. 1/ 2019 code group name 2017 structure % structural changes, p.p. mil. usd % to previous year 2016 2017 musical instruments; parts and accessories thereof xx miscellaneous manufactured articles 44.1 106.7 5.9 5.6 -0.3 xxi works of art, collectors pieces and antiques 0.01 1.6 0.1 0.001 -0.1 total 784.4 112.9 100 100 x source: world bank, wits database, www.wits.worldbank.org evaluation of physical volumes and average prices of import and export in order to analyze average prices and physical volumes, the price index and the physical volume index, which are calculated using laspeyres formulas, are used. for the calculation of the indices using laspeyres formulas, the monetary value of the goods and their physical volumes are required both, in the reference year and in the base year (ceban, a. 2017). in the current analysis, the base year will be considered the year 2016. 𝐼𝑃 = ∑𝑝1𝑞0 ∑𝑝0𝑞0 𝐼𝑞 = ∑𝑝0𝑞1 ∑𝑝0𝑞0 where: 𝐼𝑃 – price index 𝐼𝑞 – physical volume index as a result of the analysis of the physical volume and the average export prices, in 2017 it is noted an increase of the physical volume by 11.9% and a decrease of the average price indices by 11.7%. table 8 average price index and physical volume index of export by commodity groups in 2017 no.gr. main groups 2016 2017 sum ration % average price index % physical volume index % sum, thous. usd sum, thous. usd i live animals; animal products 40066.8 47047.6 117.4 111.6 108.6 ii vegetable products 529467.3 662470.9 125.1 105.8 118.9 iii animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes 54289.7 53713.4 98.9 89.3 111.2 iv prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 321527.2 367728.2 114.3 115.7 100.6 v mineral products 14118.8 28691.4 203.2 107.7 188.0 vi products of the chemical or allied industries 90032.2 98672.6 109.6 107.7 112.5 vii plastics and articles thereof; rubber and articles thereof 35613.4 33414.8 93.8 95.8 101.6 viii raw hides and skins, leather, furskins and articles thereof; saddlery and harness; travel goods, handbags and similar containers; 23929.3 20850.4 87.1 110.8 98.9 theoretical and scientifical journal 66 no. 1 / 2019 no.gr. main groups 2016 2017 sum ration % average price index % physical volume index % sum, thous. usd sum, thous. usd articles of animal gut (other than silkworm gut) ix wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal; cork and articles of cork; manufactures of straw, of esparto or of other plaiting materials; basketware and wickerwork 8988.4 10519.7 117.0 102.9 131.2 x pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; waste and scrap of paper or paperboard; paper and paperboard and articles thereof 12192.2 13166.5 107.9 100.6 107.3 xi textiles and textile articles 306897.9 346733.1 112.9 105.2 111.9 xii footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking-sticks, seatsticks, whips, riding-crops and parts thereof; prepared feathers and articles made therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair 29345.9 33983.9 115.8 106.0 111.2 xiii articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products; glass and glassware 44214.6 42059.5 95.1 110.4 88.4 xiv natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin 758.1 1214.0 160.1 120.6 384.7 xv base metals and articles of base metal 43193.4 48302.5 111.8 117.9 228.1 xvi machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles 296507.4 389635.9 131.4 106.0 222.3 xvii vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment 27473.9 41392.6 150.6 136.9 95.5 xviii optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; clocks and watches; musical instruments; parts and accessories thereof 28787.8 30808.8 107.0 97.9 168.9 xx miscellaneous manufactured articles 133804.0 154134.4 115.1 102.2 145.2 xxi works of art, collectors pieces and antiques 12.1 3.5 28.9 100.0 345.2 total 2041220.3 2424543.2 118.7 88.3 111.9 source: elaborated by the author based on the national bureau of statistics data. the most significant increases that influenced exports favourably in 2017 compared to 2016 were recorded in the following groups: "vegetable products" with an increase in the physical volume index by 18.9%, "machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound economy and sociology 67 no. 1/ 2019 recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles" with an increase in the physical volume index of 2.2 times, "prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes" with an increase in the physical volume index (+0.6%) had a significant increase in the average prices index (+15.7%) which eventually brought a significant monetary value to the growth in exports, "textiles and textile articles" contributed to the increase of exports by the combination of growth of the physical volume index by 11.9% and the increase of the average price index by 5.2% and "miscellaneous manufactured articles" with a significant increase of the physical volume index by 45.2%. one can note that there are groups that have even higher physical volume indexes, such as "natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin" with an increase of 3.8 times or "works of art, collectors pieces and antiques" – with an increase of 3.4 times, but their contribution to the share of exports is not so great in order to be taken into account (table 7). a negative contribution to exports had the groups "raw hides and skins, leather, furskins and articles thereof; saddlery and harness; travel goods, handbags and similar containers; articles of animal gut (other than silkworm gut)" – with a reduction in physical volume by 1.1%, "plastics and articles thereof; rubber and articles thereof" – which even with a certain stability of the physical volume index (+1.6%) had a 4.2% reduction in the average price index that eventually contributed negatively to the value of exports, “articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products; glass and glassware" – with a reduction of the physical volume index by 11.6%. after analyzing the average price indices and the physical volume indices of imported products, we observe that both are growing, so the average price index recorded an increase of 9.6% and the physical volume index by 21.4% compared to the previous year. table 9 average price index and physical volume index of imported goods by group of goods in 2017 no.gr. main groups 2016 2017 sum ration % average price index % physical volume index % sum, thous. usd sum, thous. usd i live animals; animal products 106834.9 131353.2 122.9 108.2 303.6 ii vegetable products 171622.5 195270.5 113.7 118.5 99.7 iii animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes 24407.9 25735.1 105.4 103.2 102.5 iv prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 305176.1 352835.2 115.6 102.9 112.7 v mineral products 630155.4 774172.7 122.8 109.0 115.8 vi products of the chemical or allied industries 502630.1 573036.2 114.0 101.9 116.8 vii plastics and articles thereof; rubber and articles thereof 257765.7 292148.4 113.3 105.4 107.6 viii raw hides and skins, leather, furskins and articles thereof; saddlery and harness; travel goods, handbags and similar containers; articles of animal gut (other than silkworm gut) 48294.8 64555.6 133.6 199.9 93.3 ix wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal; cork and articles of cork; manufactures of straw, of esparto or 85227.2 105797.8 124.1 107.4 116.2 theoretical and scientifical journal 68 no. 1 / 2019 no.gr. main groups 2016 2017 sum ration % average price index % physical volume index % sum, thous. usd sum, thous. usd of other plaiting materials; basketware and wickerwork x pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; waste and scrap of paper or paperboard; paper and paperboard and articles thereof 78484.4 87973.3 112.1 99.2 113.9 xi textiles and textile articles 345624.9 398272.4 115.2 108.7 108.1 xii footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking-sticks, seatsticks, whips, riding-crops and parts thereof; prepared feathers and articles made therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair 27319.8 43942.5 160.8 126.6 129.8 xiii articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products; glass and glassware 103715.5 122547.0 118.2 112.4 108.6 xiv natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin 7360.2 8842.8 120.1 107.4 117.3 xv base metals and articles of base metal 273872.1 343900.7 125.5 118.9 106.7 xvi machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles 643164.2 801208.0 124.5 113.6 117.5 xvii vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment 232179.2 291810.7 125.6 104.3 122.9 xviii optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; clocks and watches; musical instruments; parts and accessories thereof 56743.2 76000.8 133.9 109.7 130.3 xx miscellaneous manufactured articles 113813.0 135816.3 119.3 98.9 219.7 xxi works of art, collectors pieces and antiques 4091.4 1143.0 27.9 117.7 31.3 total 4018 482,8 4826 362.7 120.1 109.6 121.4 source: elaborated by the author based on the national bureau of statistics data. almost all product groups had a positive contribution to the increase in imports, the only exception is the group "works of art, collectors pieces and antiques", which recorded a 68.7% decrease in the physical volume index and the group “miscellaneous manufactured articles" that marked a decrease in the price index by 1.1% compared to 2016. economy and sociology 69 no. 1/ 2019 the most significant increase was influenced by imports from the following groups: "machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles" which had both an increase in the average price index of 13.6% and the increase of the physical volume index by 17.5%, "mineral products" with an increase of the average price index by 9.0% and an increase of the physical volume index by 15.8%, "products of the chemical or allied industries" having an insignificant increase of the average price index by 1.9%, however, with an increase in the physical volume index by 16.8%, "base metals and articles of base metal" with an increase of the average price index by 18.9% and of the physical volume index by 6.7% and "vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment" with a small increase of the average price index by 4.3% and an increase of 22.9% of the physical volume index. conclusions together with the recovery of the foreign trade between 2015 and 2017 in terms of the volume of the years 2013-2014, exports have had higher revival rates than imports, thus keeping the influence degree at the same positions around the value 50%. at the same time, there is noted a growing reorientation of exports towards the european union market, which is becoming more attractive for local producers, thus contributing to the systematic increase of the share of this market in the total exports. the quality issue is an important aspect that hinders the exports of goods of the country, due to the high standards established especially by eu countries, but this could represent a further motivation for moldovan producers in order to manufacture quality goods with high added value. nevertheless, there is considerably favourable the fact that export to “other countries” is increasing, which has a positive impact on the diversification of new markets. the most imported groups of commodities like “machinery and mechanical appliances, mineral products, products of the chemical industry, textiles and prepared foodstuffs; beverages, tobacco remain quite the same over the last years, due to the increase in consumption on the local market and the re-export of some categories of these products. on the other hand the export of vegetable products, electrical equipment, prepared foodstuffs, spirits and tobacco, as well as textiles are increasing due to the high values of investments, re-export, and oversupply of these goods on the domestic market. the analysis carried out with the help of laspeyres index allowed us to observe that even if the prices for goods from the imported commodity groups increased, the physical volume index also increased, thus showing the high dependence of the republic of moldova on the external market and lack of local products that could replace the imported ones. references 1. biroul național de statistică al republicii moldova. [accesat 15.10.2018]. disponibil: www.statistica.md 2. ceban, alexandru. dynamics of the foreign trade of the republic of moldova in terms of laspeyres indicators. in: economy and sociologie = economy and sociology. 2017, nr. 4, pp. 7182. issn 1857-4130. 3. consumer price index manual: theory and practice geneva: international labour office. 2004. 566 p. isbn 92-2-113699-x. 4. ganciucov, valentina, ceban, alexandru. evoluţia comerţului exterior în republica moldova în perioada 2007-2014. in: analele institutului naţional de cercetări economice. ediţia a v-a. chişinău: complexul editorial ince, 2015, nr. 1, pp. 47-58. issn 1857-3630, isbn 978-99754326-6-5. 5. helpman, elhanan, krugman, paul. market structure and foreign trade: increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy. cambridge: mit press, 1985. 271 p. isbn 0262081504. 6. pomfret, r. regional trade agreements. in: school of economics working papers. university of adelaide. 2005, no. 15, pp. 1-20. file:///c:/users/user/local%20settings/temp/www.statistica.md http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=kb_bo8w4jgoc&oi=fnd&pg=pr11&dq=info:b--uear3looj:scholar.google.com&ots=dfpvsozurw&sig=i9hq4i6cmke_lv6juk2n_m8j3hi http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=kb_bo8w4jgoc&oi=fnd&pg=pr11&dq=info:b--uear3looj:scholar.google.com&ots=dfpvsozurw&sig=i9hq4i6cmke_lv6juk2n_m8j3hi https://econpapers.repec.org/ras/ppo157.htm theoretical and scientifical journal 70 no. 1 / 2019 7. lipsey, robert e., molinari, linda, kravis, irving. measures of prices and price competitiveness in international trade in manufactured goods. international economic transactions: issues in measurement and empirical research. chicago: university of chicago press, 1991, pp. 144-199. isbn 0-226-35135-1. [accesat 10.10.2018]. disponibil: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8430 8. stratan, alexandru, clipa, victoria. regimurile preferenţiale de comerţ: riscuri şi oportunităţi de dezvoltare a comerţului exterior al republicii moldova. in: buletinul ştiinţific al universităţii de stat „bogdan petriceicu hasdeu” din cahul. seria ştiinţe economice. 2011, nr. 1 (5), pp. 15-27. issn 1857-2723. 9. galben, ilian. eficientizarea comerţului exterior al republicii moldova. chişinău: ulim, 2012. 320 p. isbn 978-9975-56-042-9 10. world integrated trade solution. [accesat 28.11.2018]. disponibil: https://wits.worldbank.org/ recommended for publication:05.03.2019 http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8430 https://wits.worldbank.org/ theoretical and scientifical journal 100 no. 1 / 2019 home care in the republic of moldova: the challenges for health and social policies diana cheianu-andrei1, phd in sociology, associate professor, state university of moldova home care responds to people's health and social needs by offering quality services at the recipient’s residence. demand for these services is steadily increasing, especially due to the aging population. the purpuse of this study is to analyze the situation in the field of home care in the republic of moldova. the study is based on a methodological approach focused on the analysis of the normative framework, the opinions of the service providers (public and private), but also of the representatives of the local public authorities, including the beneficiaries. quantitative and qualitative research methods have been used. sociological survey based on a questionnaire was applied to 84 home care providers from 23 out of 35 moldovan administrative territorial units. in-depth individual interviews were conducted with 2 categories of people: 20 home care beneficiaries and 24 mayors. the results of the assessment reveal shortcomings and achievements in the field of home care in the republic of moldova and gives recommendations for governmental and local authorities, public and private providers in order to develop home care services and policies in the field of home care, organization of advocacy activities. keywords: home care, health policies, social policies, challenges, social home-based care, medical home-based care, providers, beneficiaries. îngrijirea la domiciliu răspunde la necesităţile de sănătate şi cele sociale ale oamenilor prin oferirea de servicii calitative acolo unde beneficiarul trăieşte. cererea faţă de aceste servicii este în continuă creştere, în mod special datorită procesului de îmbătrânire a populaţiei. scopul acestui studiu este de a analiza situaţia în domeniul îngrijirii la domiciliu în republica moldova. studiul dat are la bază o abordare metodologică axată pe analiza cadrului normativ, opiniile prestatorilor de servicii (publici şi privaţi), dar şi ale reprezentanţilor autorităţilor publice locale, inclusiv a beneficiarilor. s-au utilizat metode cantitative şi calitative de cercetare. ancheta sociologică pe bază de chestionar a fost aplicată la 84 de prestatori de servicii de îngrijire la domiciliu din cele 23 din 35 de unităţi administrativ teritoriale ale moldovei. interviuri individuale aprofundate au fost realizate cu 2 categorii de persoane: 20 de beneficiari ai serviciilor de îngrijire la domiciliu şi 24 de primari. rezultatele evaluării relevă deficiențele și realizările din domeniul îngrijirii la domiciliu în republica moldova şi prezintă recomandări destinate autorităţilor guvernamentale şi locale, prestatorilor publici şi privaţi pentru dezvoltarea serviciilor şi politicilor în domeniul îngrijirii la domiciliu, organizarea activităţilor de advocacy. cuvinte-cheie: îngrijire la domiciliu, politici medicale, politici sociale, provocări, îngrijire socială la domiciliu, îngrijire medicală la domiciliu, prestatori, beneficiari. уход на дому отвечает медицинским и социальным нуждам людей, предлагая качественные услуги там, где живет получатель. спрос на эти услуги неуклонно растет, особенно из-за старения населения. целью данного исследования является анализ ситуации в сфере ухода на дому в республике молдова. исследование основано на методологическом подходе, ориентированном на знание ситуации в сфере услуг по уходу на дому, на основе анализа нормативной базы, мнений поставщиков услуг (государственных и частных), а также представителей местных органов власти, включая бенефициаров. были использованы количественные и качественные методы исследования. социологический опрос проводился среди 84 поставщиков услуг по уходу на дому в 23 из 35 административно-территориальных единиц молдовы. индивидуальные углубленные интервью были проведены с 2 категориями 1 © diana cheianu-andrei, dcheianu@yahoo.com economy and sociology 101 no. 1/ 2019 людей: 20 получателями услуг по уходу на дому и 24 мэрами. результаты исследования выявляют недостатки и достижения в области ухода на дому в республике молдова и предлагают рекомендации для государственных и местных органов власти, государственных и частных поставщиков услуг для развития политики в области ухода на дому, организации адвокационных мероприятий. ключевые слова: уход на дому, медицинская политика, социальная политика, проблемы, социальный уход на дому, домашняя медицинская помощь, поставщики, бенефициары. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-08 jel classification: i310, i390 udc: 364.2 (478) home care: an overview home care aims at satisfying people’s health and social needs in their home by providing appropriate and high-quality home-based health care and social services, by formal and informal caregivers, with the use of technology when appropriate, within a balanced and affordable continuum of care [1]. life expectancy has risen sharply in the european countries in the last few decades. the proportion of older people in the general population is increasing steadily and it is predicted to rise still further in the coming decades. this will mean increasing rates of care-dependent older people [2, p.1-2]. the next decades will also see dramatic changes in the needs of those with health diseases, as the leading cause of disability and death. a variety of people with chronic conditions may be in the situation to stay at home given difficulties in mobility, and dependent children with severe health problems or people with mental disorders may also require home care. sociodemographic change and mobility trends affect home care needs. the break-up of the traditional large family group and other sociological trends, such as urbanization, complicate the situation. family groups are often intact in rural areas, with many generations living in a household and family members taking care of the older or disabled family members. urban communities are different, with small family units, limited living space and the younger generations often moving away from their families because of work commitments. all these factors increase the likelihood of today’s and future generations needing additional care that their relatives are unlikely to provide and place a major responsibility on all levels of government: national, regional or district and especially municipal, where home care is applied in practice [3]. home care as a concept is not clear, which may lead to uncertainty in its application and in the training of those working in home care [4, p.861]. home care can be defined as an array of health and social support services provided to clients in their own residence. such coordinated services may prevent, delay or be a substitute for temporary or long-term institutional care. the concept comprises a comprehensive field of actions and gives no clear understanding of the objectives of home care and who is the recipient, what is actually done and what effects would be desirable. a more specific clarification of the concept may be helpful in education and practice [5, p.9]. the home care concept, how it appears in practice, what are the underlying goals and when it is applied, who its recipients are and what it consists of was analyzed by meleis a. [6]. the author specifies that home care as a phenomenon seems to be best understood as activities representing the whole span of care activities from the primary prevention to the palliative care at the end of the life. as home care represents a large field of care activities, it might be appropriate to use home care as an umbrella concept with different subconcepts describing the level of the activity and objectives in focus. thome b., dykes a.-k., hallberg i. (2003) done a review of the empirical literature for the description of home care as a phenomenon and as a concept, especially with regards to who the care recipients are, what actions and assessments are performed and what effects are achieved for the care recipients in terms of functional health status and quality of life. the authors concluded that home care as phenomenon is the care provided by professionals to a person in his/her own home with the ultimate goal being not only to contribute to his/her life quality and functional health status, but also to replace hospital care with care in the home for societal reasons and covering a wide range of activities from preventive visits to end/of life care [7, p.871]. theoretical and scientifical journal 102 no. 1 / 2019 genet n., boerma w., etc. (2011) had done a systematic literature review of home care in europe. the authors focus on 74 relevant studies, providing information on characteristics of home care recipients and the organization of home care in 18 countries. the main conclusions reveal that home care systems appeared to differ both between and within countries. many studies focus only on the one aspect of home care system and little information emerged on home care in eastern europe. the authors highlight the need for more scientific publications on home care, especially for comprehensive and more complete insight [8]. the overall objective of the paper is to analyse the home care in the republic of moldova, to assess the home care service providers (private and public) and the needs of the population in such services, to help moldovan authorities develop evidence-based policies and contribute to the sustainable home-based care development. the article is based on comprehensive analysis of home-based care in the republic of moldova. the methodology combines local approach with international experience and relied on primary and secondary data sources. thus, a desk review was conducted on legal framework and analysis of provision home-based care characteristics and models. additional to these data, field information was collected from home-based care service providers, service beneficiaries and local public authorities (lpa) at i and ii levels. the assessment is mixing quantitative and qualitative research methods. the survey sample comprised 84 home-based care service providers from 23 of 35 administrative territorial units. the qualitative research involved 2 target groups: 20 beneficiaries of home care services and 23 lpa representatives. types of home care services in the republic of moldova, the concept of home care gives no clear understanding and comprises different types of home care services: social home-based care services, medical home-based care services and integrated home-based care services (are not regulated by normative acts.), (see figure 1). one way of understanding the concept of home care is to describe the phenomenon, how it appears in practice, how it is provided, what are the underlying goals, who are recipients. figure 1. home care services types and sources of funding source: author’s analysis. the social home-based care is one of the oldest social services in the republic of moldova. social workers were the first specialists to be employed in the social assistance sphere to provide social home-based care services. within the first years of the republic of moldova’s independence, social workers providing social home-based care services were employed by the national social insurance house and with the creation of territorial units of social assistance (tusa) in 1998, they were subordinated to the last. gradually, social home-based care service has been developed and private providers have emerged alongside with public providers. types of the home care services social home-based care services source of financing: local budgets, grants, local & international donations, beneficiary contributions medical home-based care services source of financing: compulsory health insurance funds, grants, local & international donations, beneficiary contributions integrated home-based care services source of financing: grants, local & international donations, beneficiary contributions economy and sociology 103 no. 1/ 2019 the bedrock of medical home-based care services, in the republic of moldova was put in december 1999 by the catholic religious mission “caritas-moldova”, interconfessional society of christian doctors “emanuil“ and the civil society organization (cso) “nursing association from republic of moldova”, with the support of “cordaid” organization, holland, that implemented the first pilot project on home care. an essential step in the development of the medical home-based care services was the approval in 2007 of the unique compulsory health insurance program and the inclusion of medical home-based care services as a form of medical assistance, alongside with prehospital emergency, primary, ambulatory and hospital care [9]. the section 6 of this program stipulates that insured bedridden patients are entitled to medical home-based care services. these services are provided individually by service providers contracted by the national health insurance company (nhic) according to the law. the first service providers were contracted in 2008. the social home-based care service [10] represents a public (established within territorial structures of social assistance) or private service (created by foundations, private non-profit organizations, registered according to the law, dealing with social sector). the purpose of the service is to provide quality social home-based care services as to ensure better quality of the beneficiaries’ life. the providers of social home-based care services are presented in the figure 2. figure 2. social home-based care service providers source: author’s analysis. medical home-based care service represents a public or private service provided, in accordance with the law in force, by a healthcare institution, irrespective of its type of ownership and legal form of organization, usually csos (the model in which the “medical” component stays a part of the health care system and the “social” component of the social system exist in the czech republic, slovak republic, romania). the providers of medical home-based care service are presented in figure 3. the purpose of medical home-based care services is to provide the patient with qualified, dignified and appropriate care according to his individual needs, in order to stimulate the rehabilitation, maintenance and/or rehabilitation of the health condition and reduce the negative effects of the disease. the public medical home-based care service providers are mainly medical public institutions and a few private institutions. in 2017 nhic contracted, for the provision of medical home-based care services, 131 state medical institutions and other 9 private institutions. figure 3. medical home-based care service providers source: author’s analysis. social home-based care service providers public providers social services providers at the local level ii social services providers at the local level i private providers civil society organizations physical persons medical home-based care service providers public providers medical institutions at the local level i private providers non government organizations profit entities theoretical and scientifical journal 104 no. 1 / 2019 there are no legal provisions regarding the integrated home-based care services, neither standards (the model in which social and medical are almost fully integrated is the “scandinavian model” – sweden, finland, norway). however, certain service providers, especially the csos, but also some public institutions, operate within this notion. integrated services provide, as per particular needs, both social and medical home-based care services or in other words, the same beneficiary receives support from a social worker and from a medical assistant, but not always with common coordination of their efforts. characteristics of home-based care service providers the mapping of home-based care service providers, reveals a wide range of service providers according the organization and legal status: medical institutions, tusa, csos, providers appointed by lpa1, including profit entities. most of the service providers are public institutions (medical institution, tusa), followed by csos. from the perspective of the geographical coverage, most of the home-based care service are provided at the community/first level (50), followed by those operating at the district/second level (29), regional (2) and national providers (3). thus, public medical institutions usually provide home-based care at community level, tusa – at the district level (except administrative territorial unit gagauzia, where tusa does not provide social home-based care services, but the mayoralties), providers appointed by lpa at both, community level and district, profit entity at the district level. the csos are diverse and operate in different geographical areas – starting with the community, district, regional and finishing with national coverage (table 1). table 1 home-based care providers according to the geographical coverage, number medical institutions tusa cso provider appointed by lpa profit entity geographical area national 3 regional 2 district 3 22 4 1 1 local 39 8 1 total 42 22 17 2 1 source: author’s analysis. according the types of provided home care, it was established that most of providers offer medical services, followed by those providing social services and only a few provide integrated services (table 2). the csos, most often, provide integrated home-based care services. however, some medical institutions and tusa follow their example. the home-based care services depend on the beneficiaries’ needs and possibility of provider to respond to these needs. table 2 types of home-based care providers, number type of homebased care services medical institutions tusa cso provider appointed by lpa profit entity social 20 9 1 medical 39 1 1 integrated 3 2 7 1 total 42 22 17 2 1 source: author’s analysis. 1 there are 2 situations in this case: home-based care service provider appointed by the lpa of the ii level and the provider appointed by the lpa of the i level. social workers from administrative territorial unit gagauzia are employed within the municipality, not the tusa. the representative of lpa of the ii level believes it is more correct that social home-based care services is within tusa ensuring in this way a methodological control and increasing social home-based care quality. economy and sociology 105 no. 1/ 2019 according to home-based care service for free or for a fee, out of the 84 service providers, 74 render free home-based care services, 3 from 74 providers render home-based care services for free and for a fee, while 10 providers offer only co-paid services1 (table 3). table 3 home-based care service providers ensuring services for free or for a fee, number free services co-paid services paid services medical institutions 42 tusa 22 3 cso 7 10 provider appointed by lpa 2 profit entities 1 total 74 10 3 source: author’s analysis. the number of service beneficiaries differs from one provider to another, including from one type of service to another. thus, the research data reveal that medical institutions provide services to a minimum of 2 persons (health centers from rural areas) and to maximum – 107 persons (20 beneficiaries on average). the number of csos’ beneficiaries is much higher, from at least 8 persons to maximum 2100 (472 beneficiaries on average). tusa registered the highest number of beneficiaries, from a minimum of 298 persons to 2171 persons (636 beneficiaries on average) (see table 4). table 4 the number of beneficiaries per home-based care providers, number2 medical institutions tusa cso mean 20 636 472 median 10 522 142 mode 5 412 44 minimum 2 298 8 maximum 107 2171 2100 source: author’s analysis. almost every 4th institution3 of those 84 participating in assessment, asserted that they have restrictions in providing home-based care services.4 most restrictions were mentioned by medical institutions, followed by tusa and csos. medical institutions have contracted an exact number of visits – 36 visits per beneficiary (72 visits in special cases), visits exceeding this number are not paid. some csos also have to provide services to beneficiaries in rotation (once every 3 or 6 months) at the donor’s request or according to their own regulations. maintaining a fixed period for home-based care service provision is targeted to serve much more beneficiaries requiring home-based care services. the number of those in need is high and it is still growing, triggered by the ageing of the population (the national ageing index in 1980 was 10.7%, while in 2018 it reached 17.7%) [11]. service providers revealed both, advantages and disadvantages of a fixed period for service provision to both, providers and beneficiaries (see table 5). based on some arguments, certain csos 1 an amount is paid by the beneficiary, a part by – lpa and the rest by – cso “casmed” or an amount is paid by the beneficiary and the rest by different csos. 2 service providers appointed by lpas and businesses will not be assessed, due to their small number. the profit entity provided services in 2016 to 101 persons. the service provider appointed by lpa that operates in the district, provided services to 110 in 2016, while that working in the community – to 58 persons. 3 22 institutions. 4 there are restrictions regarding free services. theoretical and scientifical journal 106 no. 1 / 2019 manage to get the opportunity to extend the provision of home-based care services. as arguments serve: (i) lack of a positive evolution or worsening of the beneficiary’s health, (ii) beneficiary’s impossibility to take care of himself, (iii) people of the waiting list are less disadvantaged. the possibility of extending the period of home-based care provision may be negotiated for private providers or in the case of partially paid services. table 5 advantages and disadvantages of a fixed period for service provision advantages for institution advantages for beneficiaries big number of beneficiaries, rigorous planning and well-established individual plan, high level of specialist’s responsibility to provide quality services for a period, development of intersectoral collaboration, do not develop dependence. improvement of health condition in a short time, motivation of the beneficiary, including the family, social inclusion, prevention of institutionalization. disadvantages for institution disadvantages for beneficiaries in 36 visits / 6 months, the complete improvement of the situation is not achieved, increased workloads for specialists, job burnout, conflicts with the beneficiaries. worsening of the health condition, isolation, marginalization, loss of hope in a bright tomorrow. source: author’s analysis. geographical coverage of home-based care services from the geographical perspective the analysis reveals national coverage with social home-based care of elderly people officially registered single and people with disabilities without support from children, extended family and other people (friends, relatives, neighbors), with the exception of very small villages. tusa from all administrative territorial units try to provide social home-based care services in every village according to the normative documents in force. authorities from one administrative territorial unit have developed social home-based care for people requiring this type of services but people cannot receive it as they do not meet the requirements of the government decision no. 1034. medical home-based care are distributed non-uniformly. for example, in 2017 nhic contracted 131 state medical institutions (territorial medical associations (5), health centers (126) of 258 public health institutions and other 9 private institutions (6 csos, including 2 religious organizations and 1 profit entity). in general, just half (51%) of public health institutions were contracted for the provision of medical home-based care services, when speaking about the geographical coverage, there are administrative territorial units covered by more providers and administrative territorial units served only by one or no one. the number of contracted visits groups by medical home-based care service providers (4 categories) is presented below (see table 6). table 6 number of visits contracted by service providers from nhic in 2017 number of contracted visits number of providers type of providers according the legal form of organization type of provider, according the location from 12 to 299 visits 107 health centers mostly from rural areas from 300 to 999 visits 25 20 health centers and 5 csos town or administrative territorial units, region from 1000 to 2230 visits 7 4 medical institutions, 2 csos, 1 profit entity town or administrative territorial units, region 14 940 visits 1 1 cso town source: author’s analysis. economy and sociology 107 no. 1/ 2019 these data reveal that there are no well-defined criteria for contracting a certain number of visits for medical home-based care services. the number of people is not taken into account when contracting service providers thus leading to discrepancies. for example, of the total amount of funds allotted for medical home-based care in 2017, about 35% are given to the municipality of balti, and only 10% to the municipality of chisinau which is 5 times bigger than balti in terms of the population number and other 55% to the rest of localities of the republic of moldova. the fact that the municipality of balti representing 5% of the total population of the republic of moldova absorbs about 35% of the funds denotes that (i) there are people requiring medical home-based care services, (ii) the lack of a mechanism to ensure the coverage with medical home-based care services, (iii) medical institutions are not encouraged to sign contracts with the nhic on medical home-based care services or (iv) the current cost covered by the nhic discourages potential medical home-based care providers. the geographical distribution of private home-based care service providers (csos and profit entities) is also not homogeneous. the distribution is frequently determined by lpa’s readiness to collaborate with csos in developing home-based care. criteria for admission to home-based care services tusa provide social home-based care services according to the government decision no. 1034. free services are offered to elderly people who have reached the standard retirement age and people with disabilities without support from children, the extended family and other people (friends, relatives, neighbours). however, lack of children/support from children stipulated in the law is actually interpreted mainly as childless. all accredited public and private providers provide medical services to beneficiaries in accordance with the regulation and standards related to medical home-based care set forth in the orders of the ministry of heath no. 855 of 29.07.2013 and no. 851 of 29. 07.2017. the person has to meet a few criteria to benefit from services: (i) to have medical insurance, (ii) to have a recommendation from the family doctor / specialist, (iii) to reside on the territory served by the medical institution. the admission to home-based care within the csos is based on specific criteria of donors. the basic request from donors is to include the most vulnerable in home-based care service. usually, individuals are accepted based on certificates from tusa, lpa (wage/pension, family composition), medical institution (referral from family doctor/specialized doctor from hospital/health center), without infections or mental illness. csos provide home-based care services to people that do not benefit from such kind of services from public or private providers. there are differences in the characteristics of the beneficiaries from one type of providers to another, determined by the peculiarities of institutions providing services and the normative documents. tusa beneficiaries are more often women, single and from rural area. the evaluation data indicate that medical home-based care services are more gender balanced, targeted at people with disabilities and are particularly accessible to people from urban area. csos are oriented to the categories of beneficiaries that are not covered by public medical institutions and tusa, thus increasing the number of men, people under the age of 65, those with relatives. offer and demand for home-based care services the analysis of home-based care services from geographical perspective reveals a national coverage with social home-based care services of elderly registered as single and people with disabilities without support of children, extended families and other people. medical home-based care services are not distributed uniformly. half of public health institutions from the local level i were contracted by nhic for the provision of medical home-based care services. when speaking about the geographical coverage, with medical home-based care services, there are administrative territorial units covered by more providers and administrative territorial units served only by a few or no one. the analysis of private home-based care service providers (csos and profit entities), is also not homogeneous. the distribution is frequently determined by lpa’s readiness to collaborate with csos in developing home-based care. so, the home-based care services are not available to all those who needs them. home-based care services are not accessible because some persons who need them do not comply with the theoretical and scientifical journal 108 no. 1 / 2019 normative provisions for admission to such services. also, home-based care services, especially medical services, are not provided in all localities of the republic of moldova. home-based care services offered by csos are not available in all localities of the country. lonely old people abandoned by their children are disadvantaged and deprived of home-based care services. assessment has allowed to made estimations about people who need home-based care services. the estimated number of people who need home-based care social services is 33 915 people. currently, social home-based care services are offered for about 2/3 of those who need it. the estimated number of people in need of medical home-based care services is 13 972 people. currently, medical home-based care services are offered to about 18 percent of those who need it. home-based care service models the assessment revealed various models of home-based care service provision. within each type of home-based care service (medical, social, integrated), several models were identified based on 9 main criteria: (i) type of provided service, (ii) legal form of organization of the provider, (iii) human resources involved in the provision of services, (iv) working mode of the provision of home-based care services, (v) type of beneficiaries, (vi) criteria for admission to service, (vii) duration of service provision, (viii) area of service delivery (ix) cost of the service paid by the beneficiary. the models of social home-based care services have in common only the development of partnerships and, with few exceptions, the working hours. social models are designed to complement each other (see table 7) which is a major advantage. thus, local private providers, or even the public ones, target vulnerable beneficiaries that do not meet the criteria of the government decision no.1034 of 31.12.2014. table 7 models of social home-based care services delivery criteria for differentiation model a model b model c model d type of provided service social home-based care services form of organization public private (csos) public public human resources head of the service, social workers head of the service, social assistant, social workers social workers head of the service, social workers working mode 8 hours per day, on saturdays and sundays at request 8 hours per day 5 days a week 8 hours per day 5 days a week 8 hours per day 5 days a week type of beneficiaries categories enlisted in the pt. 11 and 12 of the regulatory framework on home based social care services, government decision no.1034 categories enlisted in the pt. 11 and 12 of the regulatory framework on home based social care services, government decision no.1034, vulnerable people that have not reached the retirement age vulnerable people that have reached the retirement age categories enlisted in the pt. 11 of the regulatory framework on home based social care services, government decision no.1034 criteria for admission to service based on the eligibility criteria for care services and the results of the assessment of applicant’s care needs based on the eligibility criteria for care services and the results of the assessment of applicant’s care needs. referral mechanism applied by tusa, lpa, other relevant institutions. beneficiary’s own request or request from his/her representative request from lpa request from lpa economy and sociology 109 no. 1/ 2019 criteria for differentiation model a model b model c model d the duration of service provision untill the decease, improvement of the beneficiary’s condition or the occurrence of circumstances that makes the person ineligible 3-6 months, till the improvement of the beneficiary’s condition or the occurrence of circumstances that makes the person ineligible untill the decease, improvement of the beneficiary’s condition or the occurrence of circumstances that makes the person ineligible untill the decease, improvement of the beneficiary’s condition or the occurrence of circumstances that makes the person ineligible area of service delivery district local district local cost of the service paid by the beneficiary free of charge for a fee free of charge symbolic co-payment of the cost of the service free of charge free of charge source: author’s analysis. the strong points of the model a-social consist in provision of funding from the lpa budget and the presence of social workers in almost all localities of the republic of moldova. the weak points of the model lie in the fact that vulnerable people requiring home-based care are not admitted to services if they do not meet the provisions of the government decision no. 1034. the opportunity of this model is the development of services provided for a fee that could be delivered to beneficiaries with a better financial situation but still requiring such services. model b-social and c-social are designed to complement the gaps of the model a, through undertaking certain responsibilities by lpa (model c) or by assigning responsibilities to both, lpa and beneficiaries (model b). model d-social exists only in the gagauzia and is the archaic model from the soviet union period. the gaps of this model lie in the fact that social workers employed by lpa of the 1st level are not part of a service evaluation and monitoring system. medical home based-care models have much in common (see table 8). table 8 models of medical home-based care services delivery criteria for differentiation model a model b model c model d model e type of provided service medical home-based care services form of organization public private (business entity) private (cso) private (cso) private (cso) human resources doctors, medical assistants doctor, medical assistants doctor, medical assistants doctor, medical assistants doctor, medical assistants working mode differ from 2/4 hours to 7 hours per day or a few hours 2-3 days a week 7 hours per day, on saturdays and sundays at request 7 hours per day, at request 7 hours per day, at request 7 hours per day, at request type of beneficiaries insured people insured people insured people, uninsured people, without identity documents inclusively insured people, uninsured people, without identity documents inclusively insured people criteria for admission to service family doctor’s recommendation written in the patient’s medical record referral form (form no. 027/e) from the family doctor or specialist referral form (form no. 027/e) from the family doctor, specialist, doctor employed by the provider, case referral from tusa or lpa, including patient’s individual request referral form (form no. 027/e) from the family doctor, specialist, doctor employed by the provider, case referral from tusa or lpa, including patient’s individual request referral form (form no. 027/e) from the family doctor, specialist, lpa theoretical and scientifical journal 110 no. 1 / 2019 criteria for differentiation model a model b model c model d model e the duration of service provision 36 visits, sometimes 72 visits 36 visits, sometimes 72 visits 36 visits, sometimes 72 visits contracted from the nhic. up to 365 visits per year, depending on the current financial resources of the provider (donations, sponsorship, cofinancing) 36 visits, sometimes 72 visits contracted from the nhic. up to 365 visits per year, depending on the current financial resources of the provider (donations, sponsorship) 36 visits, sometimes 72 visits area of service delivery local district regional (more districts) regional (more districts) local cost of the service paid by the beneficiary free of charge free of charge free of charge, a symbolic copayment of the cost of the service free of charge free of charge source: author’s analysis. model a-medical addresses the insured people, but does not allow all insured people to benefit from such services (the evaluation study outcomes show that not all medical institutions contract medical home-based care services from nhic). it can be explained by the small number of visits offered to medical institutions from rural areas and the low cost of a visit reimbursed by the nhic. model b-medical is a successful one, from the perspective of the working schedule – 7 hours per day, in this way meeting the beneficiaries’ needs. this model aims to provide services to the large majority of insured beneficiaries from the district. model c-medical has as advantage the opportunity to access the service – 7 hours per day, admission to services of uninsured people, people without identity documents, multiple funding (nhic, donors, lpa), including the empowerment of beneficiaries to come up with a symbolic co-payment, possibility to provide services for a period of time up to one year. model d-medical differs from model c-medical in the absence of the symbolic co-payment from the beneficiaries’ side. model e-medical differs from models c-medical and d-medical in the existence of funding exclusively from the nhic, provision of services for 36/72 visits and limited collaboration with authorities. the integrated models meet a wider variety of needs (social, medical) through the presence of a diverse team of professionals. they provide services 8/24 hours per day, 5/7 days a weeks and focus on the establishment of partnerships in the community, district, region or national (see table 9). table 9 models of integrated home-base care service delivery criteria for differentiation model a model b model c model d type of provided service integrated home-based care services form of organization private (csos) private (csos) private (csos) private (csos) human resources doctor, medical assistants social workers, medical assistants doctor, medical assistants, social workers medical assistants, social workers, psychologist, jurist working mode 7 hours per day 5 days a week 7-8 hours per day 5 days a week 7-8 hours per day 5 days a week 7-8 hours per day 5 days a week type of beneficiaries insured people, uninsured people uninsured people, including without identity documents, vulnerable people that have not reached the retirement age insured people, uninsured people, including without identity documents, vulnerable people that insured people, uninsured people, including without identity documents, vulnerable people that economy and sociology 111 no. 1/ 2019 criteria for differentiation model a model b model c model d have not reached the retirement age have reached the retirement age criteria for admission to service referral form (form no. 027/e) from the family doctor, specialist, doctor employed by the provider, case referral from tusa or lpa, including patient’s individual request based on the eligibility criteria for care services and the results of the assessment of applicant’s care needs. referral mechanism applied by tusa, lpa, other relevant institutions. beneficiary’s own request or request from his/her representative referral form (form no. 027/e) from the family doctor, specialist, doctor employed by the provider, case referral from tusa or lpa, including patient’s individual request. based on the eligibility criteria for care services and the results of the assessment of applicant’s care needs. referral mechanism applied by tusa, lpa, other relevant institutions. beneficiary’s own request or request from his/her representative referral form (form no. 027/e) from the family doctor, specialist, doctor employed by the provider, case referral from tusa or lpa, including patient’s individual request. based on the eligibility criteria for care services and the results of the assessment of applicant’s care needs. referral mechanism applied by tusa, lpa, other relevant institutions. beneficiary’s own request or request from his/her representative the duration of service provision 3-12 months till the improvement of the beneficiary’s condition or the occurrence of circumstances that makes the person ineligible unlimited 3-6 months till the improvement of the beneficiary’s condition or the occurrence of circumstances that makes the person ineligible 3-6 months, till the improvement of the beneficiary’s condition or the occurrence of circumstances that makes the person ineligible area of service delivery local / district district regional (more districts) regional (more districts) cost of the service paid by the beneficiary free of charge free of charge free of charge, symbolic co-payment of the cost of the service free of charge source: author’s analysis. the development of these models has been possible due to funding from international donor agencies. all models address the vulnerable categories of beneficiaries, besides the referral from the family doctor and/or the specialist; they also need referral from the lpa, churches, and religious missions. it is important that 3 of the 4 models of the integrated home-based care services are accredited to provide medical services and contract medical visits from nhic. not less important is the fact that the 3 models render services for a period of 3 months (with the possibility to extend it up to 6 months or 1 year), which enables a rotation of the beneficiaries and delivery of services to a larger number of people requiring these services. in the favor of the integrated models are also the ways of fund allocation as well as the cost of the provision of services, which is lower, compared to the delivery of two separate components. peculiarities of the model a-integrated consists in the team of medical experts providing a limited range of social services. the services are delivered most often at the community level, sometimes in several villages from the district. model b-integrated implies a team of social workers and medical assistants, providing services in district, but has no accreditation for the medical services rendered, respectively has no financing from nhic, relying exclusively on the non-reimbursable external funds. this model stands out by offering the widest range of social services. we also point out that services are provided for an unlimited period of time. model c-integrated implies a larger team of experts if compared to models a and b-integrated, based on the financial participation of lpa for the provision of services, including on a contribution from the beneficiary and renders regionally-based services. model d-integrated implies the largest team of specialists (medical assistant, jurist, psychologist) providing services regionally. theoretical and scientifical journal 112 no. 1 / 2019 the main conclusion of the research is that the republic of moldova should define the position of home-based care services in the whole health and social system and the level of integration that should medical and social services achieve. home-based care services should be placed as an intersection between the health care system and the social system or fully integrated. at this stage, it is necessary for the ministry of health, labour and social protection to decide what organizational model will be chosen for the republic of moldova for the next decades as each of the models requires deeper reforms in other sphere of governance. the assessment data allows us to come with some recommendations for the ministry of health, labour and social protection representatives and other government authorities responsible for health and social policy development, lpa, but also home-based care providers: (i) to develop integrated home-based care services and a regulatory basis for this purpose, including a mechanism for cooperation between healthcare institutions, social services and csos to provide integrated services; (ii) to develop standard job descriptions that would outline the responsibilities of medical assistant and social worker in providing home-based care services; (iii) to develop policies for providers contracting visits for medical home-based care to meet the needs for these services at the national level; (iv) to continue partnerships with lpa and home-based care service providers; (v) to promote volunteering among home-based care service providers; (vi) to improve the access of vulnerable people to home-based care services by changing the regulations on social home-based care services, to provide services to the elderly whose children live in other localities but have a poor family situation and are unable to help their parents. references 1. home-based and long-term care. world health organization. geneva, 1999 [accesat 10.05.2018]. disponibil: https://www.who.int/chp/knowledge/publications/home_based_and_ltc.pdf?ua=1 2. home care in europe. the solid facts. world health organization. copenhagen, 2008. isbn 978 92 890 4281 9. 3. the impact of ageing on public expenditure: projections for the eu-25 member states on pension, healthcare, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers (2004-50). economic policy committee and the european commission. brussels, 2006. [accesat 15.12.2018]. disponibil: https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9b3ed30f-ec24-4c498daf-03aa494242c2 4. thome, bibbi, dykes, anna-karin. et. al. home care with regards to definition, care recipients, content and outcome: systematic literature review. in: journal of clinical nursing. 2003, vol. 12, pp. 860-872. [accesat 27.01.2019]. disponibil: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.618.2796&rep=rep1&type=pdf 5. home care across europe. current structure and future challenges. world health organization. copenhagen, 2012. isbn 978 92 890 02882. 6. meleis, afaf. theoretical nursing – development and progress. 3rd edition. new york, 1997. 7. thome, bibbi, dykes, anna et. al. home care with regards to definition, care recipients, content and outcome: systematic literature review. in: journal of clinical nursing. 2003, vol. 12, pp. 860872. 8. genet, nadine, boerma, wienke, et al. home care in europe: a systematic literature review. in: bmc health service research. 2011 [accesat 22.03.2019]. disponibil: https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1472-6963-11-207 9. hotărîrea guvernului cu privire la aprobarea programului unic al asigurării obligatorii de asistenţă medicală: nr.1387 din 10.12.2007. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2007, nr. 198-202, art. 1443. [accesat 07.05.2019]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=326302 10. hotărîrea guvernului pentru aprobarea modificărilor şi completărilor ce se operează în regulamentul cu privire la condiţiile de stabilire, modul de calcul şi de plată a îndemnizaţiilor pentru incapacitate temporară de muncă şi altor prestaţii de asigurări sociale. in: monitorul oficial al republicii moldova. 2014, nr. 9-13, art. 8. [accesat 10.04.2019]. disponibil: http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=351122 11. data of the national bureau of statistics. [accesat 16.02.2019]. disponibil: http://statistica.gov.md/index.php?l=en recommended for publication: 20.06.2019 https://www.who.int/chp/knowledge/publications/home_based_and_ltc.pdf?ua=1 https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9b3ed30f-ec24-4c49-8daf-03aa494242c2 https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9b3ed30f-ec24-4c49-8daf-03aa494242c2 https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1472-6963-11-207 http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=326302 theoretical and scientifical journal 70 december no. 2/2020 the effects of corporate governance on the profitability of companies in the field of public water supply services in the republic of moldova ana timuș1, phd in economy, state university of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.2-06 jel classification: d22, g3, h2, h71, h76, l32, l95, m14 udc: 338.465(478) abstract in the republic of moldova, in the field of public water supply services, corporate governance, from a conceptual and regulatory point of view, began to develop only in the early 2010s. the selected topic is current because corporate governance is at the early stage in this field, but, at the same time, its evolution for 10 years needs to be analyzed. this process must be monitorized to identify the most important successes or deficiencies in order to develop a set of good practices. the purpose of the research is to identify the relationship between degree of development of corporate governance and the profitability of companies in the field as well as shaping the corporate governance model. research methods used refer to the observation of corporate and economic processes, interview, investigation, comparing, analysis of corporate legislative and regulatory documents in the field, induction, explanation and interpretation of the main indicators of corporate management. the relevant research results are: identifying the fact that there is no clear dependence between the application of corporate management and increasing the profitability of water companies; at the same time, it has been identified that the participation of employees of water companies in the company boards contributes to better profitability. the corporate governance model was configured, with the identification of deficiencies in the process of regionalization of services. corporate governance, in the analyzed field, must be subjected of the process of continuous improvement in particular by evaluating the activity of the company's board. keywords. joint stock company, corporate governance, company board, profitability, executive body, stakeholders. în republica moldova, în domeniul serviciilor publice de alimentare cu apă, guvernanța corporativă, din punct de vedere conceptual și reglementar, a început a se definitiva abia la începutul anilor 2010. tema selectata este actuală deoarece guvernanța corporativă în domeniul selectat este la început de cale, dar în același timp evoluția ei timp de 10 ani necesită a fi analizată pentru identificarea celor mai importante succese sau deficiențe, cu scopul de a elabora un set de bune practici. scopul cercetării este de a identifica relația dintre gradul de dezvoltare a guvernanței corporative și rentabilitatea companiilor din domeniu precum și conturarea modelului de administrare corporativă. metodele de cercetare utilizate se referă la observația proceselor corporative și economice, interviu cu actorii implicați, ancheta, comparația, analiza documentelor legislative și de reglementare corporativă din domeniu, inducția, explicarea și interpretarea principalelor indicatori ai managementului corporativ. rezultatele relevante ale cercetării se rezuma la identificarea faptului că nu există o dependență clara dintre aplicarea managementului corporativ și creșterea profitabilității companiilor de apă; în același timp s-a identificat faptul că participarea în consiliile societății a angajaților companiilor de apă contribuie la o rentabilitate mai bună, s-a configurat modelul de administrare corporativă, cu identificarea deficienților în proces de regionalizare a serviciilor. guvernanța corporativă, în domeniul analizat, trebuie supusă unui proces de îmbunătățire continuă, în special prin evaluarea activității consiliului societății. cuvinte-cheie: societatea pe acțiuni, guvernanță corporativă, consiliul societății, profitabilitate, organul executiv, părțile interesate. 1 id orcid: 0000-0002-3624-3130, e-mail: ana.timus.12345@gmail.com mailto:ana.timus.12345@gmail.com economy and sociology 71 december no. 2/2020 в республике молдова, в сфере услуг общественного водоснабжения, корпоративное управление с концептуальной и нормативной точки зрения появилось только в начале 2010-х годов. выбранная тема актуальна, потому что корпоративное управление находится в начале пути в этой сфере, но в то же время необходимо проанализировать эволюцию за 10 лет. нужно осуществлять мониторинг этого процесса, чтобы определить наиболее важные успехи или недостатки для разработки набора хороших практик. цель исследования выявить взаимосвязь между степенью развития корпоративного управления и прибыльностью компаний в данной сфере, а также формирование модели корпоративного управления. используемые методы исследования включают наблюдение за корпоративными и экономическими процессами, интервью, опрос, сравнение, анализ корпоративных законодательных и нормативных документов в этой области, индукция, объяснение и интерпретация основных показателей корпоративного управления. результаты исследования сводится к: выявление того факта, что нет четкой зависимости между применением корпоративного управления и повышением прибыльности водохозяйственных компаний; в то же время было установлено, что участие сотрудников компаний водоснабжения в советах директоров компаний способствует повышению прибыльности. была идентифицирована модель корпоративного администрирования с выявлением недостатков в процессе регионализации услуг. корпоративное управление в анализируемой области должно подвергаться процессу постоянного совершенствования, в частности путем оценки деятельности совета директоров компании. ключевые слова. акционерное общество, корпоративное управление, правление компании, рентабельность, исполнительный орган, заинтересованные стороны. introduction corporate governance is a concept that has been increasing concerned public water supply companies lately. corporate management provides a greater degree of guarantee that an effective control system is implemented at the company level, thus ensuring that the company is managed in the interests of consumers, local government – owners and other stakeholders. the concept of "corporate governance" is defined by the organization for economic development and cooperation as the system of administration and control of companies, totality of a company's relations with its shareholders, or, in the extended sense, with its partners (creditors, suppliers, customers, employees and administrative authorities). it involves a complex system of rights, obligations, attributions and control measures established in order to protect shareholders and investors, they are viewed as a community, and to ensure the liability of administrators and managers towards shareholders [iovu, 2019:3]. corporate governance of water companies divides the rights and responsibilities between the various participants in the management of public water supply services and specifies the rules and procedures for making the right decisions for the entity, so as to ensure the right of access to quality services in accordance with the legislation in force and to manage the system at the level of costs, which fall within the limits of the degree of affordability of the tariff. the main objectives of corporate governance within water companies are to create an effective system. to ensure the safety of the infrastructure that was transmitted in management of the water company by the shareholders and its efficient operation complying with regulations and technical requirements in force, including those for environmental protection. the evolution of the economic and financial results of the water companies in dependence of the corporate governance must be seen in the context of the tendencies of the field of economic activity at national level. thus, the evolution in the republic of moldova of the gross domestic product for economic activity e water distribution; sanitation, waste management, decontamination activities, recorded an increase from 1225527 thousand mdl in 2010 to 3303739 thousand mdl in 2018, or an increase of 2.7 times increase in 8 years. (figure 1) the most remarkable growth was recorded in 2011 compared to 2010 with 48.4%, followed by a period of slow growth 2012-2016, while in 2017 and 2018 the growth becomes more pronounced by 12.4-12.2% per year. theoretical and scientifical journal 72 december no. 2/2020 figure 1. gross domestic product for economic activity: e water distribution; sanitation, waste management, decontamination activities, thousand mdl source: developed by the author based on [statistica.gov.md]. the contribution of this economic activity to the formation of the gross domestic product, at national level, varied from 0.8% in 2010 to 1.1% in 2018. corporate governance for public water supply companies is a new issue, that has been developing slowly lately. the implementation, of corporate governance principles, was recommended to companies in the field by external financing partners. the most remarkable project for this purpose was "the program for development of water supply and sewerage companies", which is the first project with a regionalization component of water supply and sewerage services in the republic of moldova. the project, with a worth of 30mil. euro, was financed by: the european bank for reconstruction and development (ebrd), the european investment bank (eib) and the neighborhood investment fund (nif). the general objective of the project was to promote a reform of water companies by creating sustainable models of operators who will provide services at acceptable standards. the purpose of the project was to reform the water supply and sewerage services on the territory of the republic of moldova and, in particular, to improve and increase the efficiency of water supply services. the mentioned purpose was to be achieved by building and renovating water supply and sewerage systems in 6 regions of the republic of moldova, two from each development area of the country: south – leova and ceadîr-lunga; center – orhei and hincesti; north – floresti and soroca. the beneficiary localities have assumed a series of commitments, including the reorganization of water companies into joint stock companies and the application of corporate governance [decision of the court of accounts no. 29, 22.07.2016:4]. table 1 water companies with the form of organization – joint stock companies and the date of reorganization no name the date on which the company was reorganized into jsc note 1 j.s.c. ”apa canal chișinău” 1997 ebrd funded project 2 j.s.c. „apăcanal leova” march 11, 2011 "the program for development of water supply and sewerage companies", funded by ebrd, eib and nif 3 j.s.c. „regia apăcanal soroca” april 03, 2012 4 j.s.c. „regia apăcanal orhei” july 06, 2012 5 j.s.c. „apă-termo” ceadîr-lunga november 24, 2010 6 j.s.c. "operator regional apa-canal" hincesti may 19, 2011 7 j.s.c. „servicii comunale florești” may 02, 2001 8 j.s.c.”apa canal cahul” april 14, 2017 modernization of local public services in the rm, giz project source: developed by the author based on [hotariria curtii de conturi nr. 29, 22.07.2016:20]. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1 225 527 1 818 523 1 925 874 2 028 205 2 331 643 2 447 892 2 620 131 2 945 265 3 303 739 0 500 000 1 000 000 1 500 000 2 000 000 2 500 000 3 000 000 3 500 000 https://statistica.gov.md/ economy and sociology 73 december no. 2/2020 of all the 8 joint stock companies, only jsc "servicii comunale floresti" was reorganized without this fact being recommended by a financed institution. the shares of these joint stock companies are wholly owned by the local municipal councils. out of 40 water supply companies, in urban areas in the republic of moldova, only 8 are joint stock companies, the other companies most often have the municipal enterprise form of organization. [amac, 2019:8]. this 8 joint stock companies play an important role in the field of public water supply services because they have a turnover that in 2018 was 0.41% of the national gross domestic product and 50.9% of the gross domestic product for economic activity. e water distribution; sanitation, waste management, decontamination activities. the service area, with water supply services of these joint stock companies, covers a population of 1.1 million people, which is 40.9% of the country's population [statistica.gov.md; amac, 2019:14]. 1. the corporate governance model in the public water supply services sector joint stock companies in the field of public water supply services are owned by local public administration, represented by local councils and they can have only an entirely public capital. the corporate governance model of water companies is shown in figure 2a. the purpose of reorganizing municipal enterprises into joint stock companies was also the regionalization of water supply services, meaning namely the extension of the service management area of the joint stock company. thus, they manage the water supply service in several localities apart from the company's official place of residence. for example, the water company in the town of florești manages the service in the largest number of localities-27, and the water company from the town of ceadir-lunga manages the service only in the city, although it has been transformed into a joint stock company in order to regionalize the service. 2a. management of the services only in the company's town of residence 2b. management of the services and in the neighboring rural localities figure 2. corporate governance model of the companies in the field of public water supply services source: developed by the author. the basic elements of the corporate governance model of water companies in the republic of moldova are: 1. the shareholders/general meeting of the shareholders of the joint stock companies in the field of public water supply services are the town/municipal councils. the new share issues can be offered for subscription only to local authorities from the republic of moldova. for all 8 joint stock companies, the decision of the general meeting of shareholders is considered the decision taken by theoretical and scientifical journal 74 december no. 2/2020 the town council. within the analyzed joint stock companies, except for jsc "apa-canal chisinau", in most cases, the general meetings of shareholders do not follow the legal procedures of announcement and held, because they take place in the form of meetings of local councils. 2. the company's board of directors is elected by the general meeting of shareholders and in most cases is composed of local council members. the number of members of the company's board varies from 3 in the case of jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hincești to 9 in the case of jsc "apa canal chișinău". of the 8 joint stock companies 5, or 63% have 5 members on the board of directors of the company. the analysis of the company's board structure identified that most members are local councilmen. there are situations when a representative of the water company is included in the company's board, for example the case of jsc "apa canal chișinău", jsc „apa-termo” ceadîr-lunga, jsc „apacanal leova” and jsc “apa canal cahul”. table 2 composition of the company's board of directors no name number of members on the company's board structure chairman 1 jsc ”apa canal chisinău” 9 =5 members delegated by the local public administration =4 members delegated by the company no data 2 jsc „apacanal leova” 5 =mayor =vice mayor = 1 member delegated by the local public administration =2 members delegated by the company mayor 3 jsc „regia apacanal soroca” 5 =5 councillors councillor 4 jsc „regia apacanal orhei” 5 =5 councillors councillor 5 jsc „apă-termo” ceadiîr-lunga 5 =2 members delegated by the bashkan’s (governor’s) office =1 member delegated by the district council =1 member delegated by the local public administration = 1 member delegated by the company head of the economic department of bașcanat 6 jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hincesti 3 = 2 member delegated by the local public administration =1 member delegated by the company councillor 7 jsc „servicii comunale floresti” 5 = 5 councillors councillor 8 jsc ”apa canal cahul” 7 = 5 councillors = chief accountant of the town hall = 1 member delegated by the company councillor source: developed by the author based on [http://ceadir-lunga.apacanal.md; http://floresti.apacanal.md, http://hincesti.apacanal.md; http://leova.apacanal.md; http://www.apacanalcahul.md; http://www.racorhei.md; https://acc.mdceadir-lunga.apacanal.md] the mandate term of the company's board of directors is 4 years. the selection of the members of the company's board is made by the local councils – the shareholders without the participation of independent experts in the field. the requirements for candidates are vague. a mandate contract is not signed with the company's board, so the board's liability for improper management of the company is not established. the remuneration of the members of the company's board is not related to the fulfillment of performance indicators in the management of the entity. according to the “best practices” of corporate governance in developed economies, the board of directors appoints the chairman from among persons who are not part of the company's http://ceadir-lunga.apacanal.md/ http://floresti.apacanal.md/ http://hincesti.apacanal.md/ http://leova.apacanal.md/ http://www.apacanalcahul.md/ http://www.racorhei.md/ https://acc.mdceadir-lunga.apacanal.md/ economy and sociology 75 december no. 2/2020 management. for all analyzed companies, the positions of chairman of the board of directors and that of executive director are held by different persons. the implementation of a code of ethics is absolutely necessary, according to the "best practices" of governance in developed economies. in the republic of moldova, the analyzed joint stock companies do not present information on the existence of a code of ethics [feleaga, 2011:7]. 3. the company's board of directors delegates the management of the company to the company's executive bodies. the 7 joint stock companies out of 8, with the exception of jsc "apa-canal chisinau" are managed by a director. in the articles of association of a company of jsc "apa-canal chisinau", it is provided that the executive bodies are the management committee and the general director. they act on behalf of the company for the current production and investment management, in accordance with current legislation, decisions of general shareholders' meetings, board of directors, the regulation on the activity of the executive bodies of the jsc "apa-canal chisinau" etc. [statutul sa ”apa-canal chișinau”, 6]. the audit committee exercises the control of the economic and financial activity of the company. the audit committee is obliged to supervise the management of the company, to verify if the financial statements and registers are legally prepared, and whether the evaluation of the patrimonial elements was done according to the rules established for preparing and presenting the financial statements. [statutul sa ”apa-canal chisinau”, 16]. in order to be considered effective, corporate governance must provide for appropriate control mechanisms, which will intervene in critical situations and protect the interests of all actors involved. during the research, the presentation of the audit reports on the company’s website was analyzed. only jsc “apa canal chisinau” presented the audit report for 2018 and complied with the information dissemination requirements. jsc „apacanal leova” presented the audit report for 2016. the other joint stock companies did not present the audit reports on their websites. jsc "servicii comunale floresti" published a news item regarding the audit, but the report was not published. only jsc "apa canal chisinau" complies with the established information dissemination requirements. 4. the contract for delegating the management of public water supply services. the administrative-territorial units, through the local public administration authorities, delegate the management of their water supply services to the water company through a management delegation contract. the delegation contract sets out the specific obligations and rights of each party with regard to the investment programs and the achievement of pre-established levels of performance of services. thus, the water company is responsible for the administration, operation, maintenance, improvement, renewal and extension, where appropriate, of all fixed assets subject to the contract. the most important risk assumed by the company are failure of payment by service customers, according contractual provisions. ownership of public assets and the supply of services at affordable costs are the responsibilities of the local public administration. public assets remain in public ownership and must be taken over by their owner (administrative-territorial units) upon termination of contract. the delegation contract is a longterm commitment [haskoning romania, 2008:8-10]. 5. analysis of the evolution of profitability indicators depending on corporate governance issues of joint stock companies in the public water supply services sector a primary goal of corporate management is to increase the performance of water companies. the instruments of systemic evaluation of the economic efficiency of the corporate governance are in the development phase. traditional methods to evaluate the economic efficiency of management for water companies are not applicable, because water companies operate under a natural monopoly, the number of customers is limited by the area of service, shareholders can become only territorial administrative units, setting tariffs for services is limited by the ability to pay of the household customers, company assets, mostly have a high degree of wear and require significant maintenance costs, etc. therefore, scientific research dedicated to solving this difficult problem is highly topical. it is important to point out that joint stock companies in the field of water, appeared not as a result of the evolution of individual business, but as a result of the reorganization of municipal enterprises, which leaves its mark on the efficiency of economic activity of these companies. theoretical and scientifical journal 76 december no. 2/2020 figure 3. methods for analyzing the efficiency of corporate governance of joint stock companies in the field of public water supply services source: developed by the author based on [ bocanete, 2013:114]. the analysis of the efficiency of corporate governance of water companies can be done through several methods, the most important of which are presented in figure 3. from the multitude of approaches, the author selected, by prioritization, a limited number of indicators specific to corporate governance and economic analysis. the summary of the indicators specific to corporate governance analyzed in the previous subchapter is presented in table 3. table 3 the indicators specific to corporate governance of water companies n a m e n u m b e r o f m e m b e r s o n t h e c o m p a n y 's b o a r d o f d ir e c to r s p e r io d o f a p p li c a ti o n o f c o r p o r a te g o v e r n a n c e , y e a r s d u a li ty o f fu n c ti o n , t h e c h a ir m a n o f th e c o m p a n y 's b o a r d o f d ir e c to r s a n d e x e c u ti v e d ir e c to r t h e d iv e r s it y o f th e c o m p a n y 's b o a r d o f d ir e c to r s 1 -u n if o r m , 5 -d iv e r s e p r e s e n c e , o n t h e b o a r d o f d ir e c to r s , o f th e e m p lo y e e s o f th e w a te r c o m p a n y , p e r s o n s t h e s h a r e h o ld in g s tr u c tu r e . c o n c e n tr a te d o r d is p e r s e d n u m b e r o f a d m in is tr a ti v e te r r it o r ia l u n it s i n t h e a r e a o f s e r v ic e s u p p ly , w it h t h e p e r s p e c ti v e o f b e c o m in g m in o r it y s h a r e h o ld e r s jsc ”apa canal chișinău” 9 23 no data 4 4 concentrated 24 jsc „apăcanal leova” 5 9 not the same person 4 2 concentrated 2 jsc „regia apăcanal soroca” 5 8 not the same person 1 0 concentrated 4 jsc „regia apăcanal orhei” 5 8 not the same person 1 0 concentrated 5 jsc „apă-termo” ceadîr-lunga 5 10 not the same person 5 1 concentrated 0 jsc "operator regional apacanal" hîncești 3 9 not the same person 4 1 concentrated 4 jsc „servicii comunale florești” 5 19 not the same person 1 0 concentrated 27 jsc ”apa canal cahul” 7 3 not the same person 4 1 concentrated 8 source: developed by the author based on [http://ceadir-lunga.apacanal.md; http://floresti.apacanal.md, http://hincesti.apacanal.md; http://leova.apacanal.md; http://www.apacanalcahul.md; http://www.racorhei.md; https://acc.mdceadir-lunga.apacanal.md] methods for analyzing the efficiency of corporate governance in water companies benchmarking procesual benchmarking metric benchmarking analysis of economic and financial activity altman's z-coefficient profitability indicators liquidity indicators, etc analysis of corporate governance indicators number of members on the company's board of directors period of application of corporate governance duality of function, the chairman of the company's board of directors and executive director presence, on the board of directors, of the employees of the water company number of administrative-territorial units in the area of service supply, with the perspective of becoming minority shareholders http://ceadir-lunga.apacanal.md/ http://floresti.apacanal.md/ http://hincesti.apacanal.md/ http://leova.apacanal.md/ http://www.apacanalcahul.md/ http://www.racorhei.md/ https://acc.mdceadir-lunga.apacanal.md/ economy and sociology 77 december no. 2/2020 another indicator, that reflects the efficiency of corporate governance, refers to the economic and financial activity namely at the evolution of the profitability of water companies. the analysis of the dynamics has the year preceding the reorganization of the municipal enterprise into a joint stock company as a reference point. the subsequent period represents the period of corporate governance of water companies. considering that after the reorganization of the companies, between 3 to 23 years have passed, it is opportune to analyze the evolution of profitability indicators. because jsc ”apa canal chisinau” with 23 years, jsc „servicii comunale floresti” with 19 years and jsc “apa canal cahul” with 3 years of corporate governance are examples of extremes, these companies were excluded from the analysis due to the fact that they are not representative for the present study. a key indicator in any economic analysis is turnover. this is considered a fundamental indicator of the volume of a company's activity and, obviously, it is always taken into account when evaluating an entity. figure 4. evolution of turnover after the reorganization of water companies, thousand mdl source: developed by the author based on [amac, 2019; amac, 2018; amac 2017; amac, 2012; amac, 2011; amac, 2010]. the turnover of the companies had an increasing trend during the analyzed period, with one exception for jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hincești in 2014 compared to 2013. the most accentuated growth was noticed at jsc „regia apa-canal orhei”, figure 4. jsc "apa-canal leova" was reorganized into a joint stock company in 2011, from this year the company applied corporate governance. in the 2012-2018 period, the turnover tended to grow slowly, from 4.2 million mdl in 2012 to 7.4 million mdl in 2018, or by 76.2% in 6 years. in 2012, 2013 and 2014 the growth rate of turnover is higher compared to the growth rate of gross domestic product for the field of activity of which the company is part. jsc „regia apacanal soroca” was reorganized into a joint stock company in 2012. the 20132018 period is characterized by the increase of the value of the indicator from 14.0 million mdl in 2013 to 18.3 million mdl in 2018, or by 30.7% in 5 years. in 2012, 2013 and 2015, the growth rate of turnover is equal compared to the growth rate of gross domestic product for the field of activity of which the company is part. for the rest of the years, the growth rate is slower. jsc „regia apacanal orhei” started to apply corporate governance in 2012. starting with 2013, turnover had an increasing trend. in 2018, a indicator value was 27.2 million mdl, an increase 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 leova 3 261 3 666 3 410 4 193 5 536 6 621 6 767 6 384 7 396 7 378 soroca 9 880 11 503 12 567 13 307 14 003 13 996 15 476 15 371 16 558 18 266 orhei 13 248 13 707 16 538 17 892 20 077 21 089 22 925 23 402 24 112 27 170 ceadir-lunga 6 241 6 034 7 982 8 292 8 559 9 027 10 268 9 973 11 672 13 644 hincasti 8 746 10 705 10 253 10 000 11 900 8 922 9 818 9 907 10 820 11 301 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 leova soroca orhei ceadir-lunga hincasti theoretical and scientifical journal 78 december no. 2/2020 compared to 2013 with 36% in 5 years. in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2018 the growth rate of turnover is higher compared to the growth rate of the gross domestic product for the field of activity of which the company is part. jsc „apa-termo” ceadir-lunga was reorganized in 2010. starting with 2011 the indicator evolved positively, with some oscillations such as those in 2016. in 2018 the turnover was 13.6 million mdl, or a 70.4% increase compared to 2011. in 2015, 2017 and 2018, the growth rate of turnover is higher compared to the growth rate of gross domestic product for the field of activity of which the company is part. jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hincești was reorganized in 2011. the turnover of 11.3 million mdl was in 2018, with 13% more compared to 2012. in 2014 and 2016 the growth rate of turnover is higher compared to the growth rate of gross domestic product for the field of activity of which the company is part. analyzing the average growth rate of turnover per year, it was identified that the best results were obtained by jsc „apă-canal leova” with a value of turnover increase per year of 12.6%, and the weakest results were obtained by jsc "operator regional apă-canal" hincești with a value of 2.1% per year. for the other 3 companies the value of the indicator varies from 6% to 10%. the results obtained by jsc " apa-canal leova" can also be explained by the fact that this is the smallest company out of the 5, if we take into account the number of customers and the area of service supply. the evolution of the profit/loss before tax indicator of the 5 water companies, jsc " apa-canal leova", jsc "regia apa -canal soroca", jsc „regia apă-canal orhei”, jsc „apa-termo” ceadîr-lunga and jsc "operator regional apă -canal" hincești is presented in figure 5. figure 5. evolution of profit/loss before tax indicators after the reorganization of water companies, thousand mdl source: developed by the author based on [amac, 2019; amac, 2018; amac 2017; amac, 2012; amac, 2011; amac, 2010]. in most cases, companies recorded losses during the analyzed period, with some exceptions such as 2013, in which 4 out of 5 companies recorded a profit. in the period 2009-2011 all companies recorded losses. because companies have different sizes, number of customers and areas of operation, a comparative analysis of the indicator between them is not representative, the analysis will focus more on the trend of the indicator for each company and compare the growth rate. jsc "apa-canal leova" was reorganized into a joint stock company in 2011, the year in which the company recorded the lowest value of the loss indicator. in the period 2012-2018, the value of the indicator registered a slow, oscillating, growth trend, with the maximum value of the profit 434.1 thousand mdl obtained in 2016. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 leova -243 -79 -461 -231 347 -164 -35 434 -35 64 soroca -8 802 -2 592 -746 -2 831 -1 430 -5 091 -7 660 -7 114 -4 153 -3 806 orhei -6 953 -3 275 -3 902 2 960 1 412 -2 341 -14 402 -3 060 -607 1 580 ceadir-lunga -476 -2 261 -372 96 124 135 42 5 84 2 413 hincesti -69 -62 -120 370 950 456 108 43 14 69 -16 000 -14 000 -12 000 -10 000 -8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 leova soroca orhei ceadir-lunga hincesti economy and sociology 79 december no. 2/2020 jsc „regia apacanal soroca” was reorganized in the joint stock company in 2012, year in which it recorded a loss of 2831.2 thousand mdl. in the following years of corporate governance of the company, losses were persisted. jsc „regia apacanal orhei” started to apply corporate governance in 2012, year in which it obtained a maximum profit, for the analyzed period. in 2013 and 2018 there was profit, and in the period 2014-2017 there were losses, with a tendency to reduce losses in 2015. jsc "apa-termo" ceadir-lunga was reorganized in 2010, a year in which it obtained a record value of losses. starting with 2011, the indicator evolved positively, in 2018 the profit value was 2413.3 thousand mdl. jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hîncești being reorganized in 2011, recorded only profits in the analyzed period, the values of the indicator are ranging from 13.8 thousand mdl in 2017 to 949.7 thousand mdl in 2013. in the period, 2009-2011, the company recorded losses. a general feature of the evolution of profit/loss before tax is the fact that compared to the years before the reorganization, in 2018 four of the five companies recorded a profit. a negative aspect in this regard is the fact that this positive result was influenced by the financial activity of the company and not by the operational one. taking into account the negative results related to the profitability of companies, it is appropriate to analyze the risk of bankruptcy. one of the best-known quantitative models for predicting bankruptcy was proposed by the economist altman. it allows to divide the companies into bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy categories. the altman indicator is a function of several indicators that characterize the economic potential of the company and the results of its activity in the past period. in general, the solvency indicator (zscore) could be calculated as follows: z=1,2 x1+1,4 x2+3,3x3+0,6 x4+ x5 where: x1 – working capital/total assets x2 – retained earnings/total assets x3 – earnings before interest and tax/total assets x4 – market value of equity/total liabilities x5 – sales/total assets a score below 1.8 means it's likely the company is headed for bankruptcy, while companies with scores above 3 are not likely to go bankrupt [bocanete, 2013:115]. table 4 analysis of the company's financial situation based on the altman model, z score name 2016 2017 2018 jsc „apăcanal leova” 0.43 0.14 0.16 jsc „regia apăcanal soroca” 0.05 0.16 0.17 jsc „regia apăcanal orhei” 0.14 0.24 0.31 jsc „apă-termo” ceadîr-lunga 0.31 0.36 0.36 jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hincesti 0.16 0.18 0.20 source: developed by the author based on [amac, 2019; amac, 2018; amac, 2017; amac, 2012; amac, 2011; amac, 2010]. the analysis of the financial situation of water companies based on the altman model identified that all 5 companies have a z score less than 1.8, respectively they are unconditionally insolvent. table 4. these results have the following aspects as influencing factors: the approved tariffs for the services do not cover the costs, the loans from international financing institutions, the low payment capacity of the customers, etc. a positive issue in the evolution of the z score of the altman model is that, excepting jsc "apa-canal leova", the other four companies had results with a tendency to improve. water companies compared to private companies are not effectively influenced by the risk of bankruptcy, because these companies operate under natural monopoly conditions and provide vital services in their operation area and have a crucial role in water protection. for these reasons, a theoretical and scientifical journal 80 december no. 2/2020 precarious economic situation of water companies will lead to subsidizing the activity and not to bankruptcy. in order to identify the link between corporate governance and the profitability of water companies, the performance of the 5 companies was analyzed in detail, by calculating the profitability indicators, presented in table 5. table 5 profitability indicators used in the study name of the indicator calculation formula unit of measurement profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity, % (profit from operational activity/ sales revenue) * 100% % profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss), % (net profit (net loss)/sales revenue) * 100% % source: developed by the author based on [amac, 2019:40]. the reference year was considered the year before reorganization of the company, and the values of the indicator were analyzed for the previous 3 years, 2016-2018. table 6 profitability indicators for jsc „apa-canal leova” name of indicators 2010 … 2016 2017 2018 sales revenue, thousand mdl 3665.8 6383.8 7396.3 7377.7 profit/ loss from operational activity, thousand mdl -79.0 -202.6 -1873.2 -2354.9 net profit (net loss), thousand mdl -79.0 369.6 -35.3 64.2 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity, % -2.2 -3.2 -25.3 -31.9 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss), % -2.2 5.8 -0.5 0.9 source: developed by the author based on [amac, 2019; amac, 2018; amac, 2017; amac, 2012; amac, 2011]. jsc „apa-canal leova” was reorganized into a joint stock company in 2011. during 2016-2018, sales revenue had a slow growth. the indicator that was recorded in 2018 increased 2-fold compared to 2010. factors that contributed to this process were: the increase of the tariff for the services provided by the company since may 2013, the extension of the service supply area, during the analyzed period the company expanded its services in 2 more localities, which contributed to the increase of the billed water volume in 2016 by 29% compared to 2010. the result from the operational activity records losses, which essentially increased – 29-fold in 2018, compared to 2010. in the year preceding the reorganization, the company recorded a 79 thousand mdl net loss. in the 2016-2018 period, the value of the indicator recorded an increase in 2016 and 2018 with profits and recorded losses in 2017. the net profit of 369.6 thousand mdl obtained in 2016 and the net profit 64.2 thousand mdl obtained in 2018, was influenced by the result from the financial activity, because the company recorded losses from the operational activity. the company obtained 202.6 thousand mdl in 2016 and 2354.9 thousand mdl in 2018 losses from the operational activity, table 6. the indicator profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity, recorded negative values in the 2016-2018 period as well as in the reference year – 2010. the maximum value of the indicator was obtained in 2018 with -31.9%, compared to – 2.2% that was obtained in 2010. the profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss) indicator, recorded more positive results in 2016 and 2018, they were caused by the results of financial activity, namely foreign exchange differences related to long-term credit. economy and sociology 81 december no. 2/2020 table 7 profitability indicators for jsc „regia apacanal soroca” name of indicators 2011 … 2016 2017 2018 sales revenue, thousand mdl 12567.4 15371.1 16557.9 18265.7 profit/ loss from operational activity, thousand mdl -1413.1 -7453.0 -5016.4 -4450.7 net profit (net loss), thousand mdl -745.8 -7113.6 -4153.4 -3806.0 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity,% -11.2 -48.5 -30.3 -24.4 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss),% -5.9 -46.3 -25.1 -20.8 source: developed by the author based on [amac, 2019; amac, 2018; amac, 2017; amac, 2012]. jsc „regia apa-canal soroca” was reorganized into a joint stock company in 2012. sales revenues had an increasing trend in the 2016-2018 period compared to 2011. sales revenues had increased by 45.3% in 2018 compared to 2011 and by 21.8% in 2016 compared to 2011. a factor that contributed to the increase was the updating of the service tariff in march 2013. the volume of billed water did not increase significantly. the volume of billed water has increased by 27.5% in 2018 compared to 2011, including due to the expansion of the service area in 4 localities, as seen in table 7. the indicator profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity, recorded negative values in the period 2016-2018 and in the reference year 2011. the lowest point at -8.5% was in 2016, compared to -11.2% in 2011. the profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss) indicator, also recorded negative results, from -5.9% in 2011 to -20.8% in 2018. the lowest point at -46.3% was in 2016. table 8 profitability indicators for jsc „regia apa-canal orhei” name of indicators 2011 … 2016 2017 2018 sales revenue, thousand mdl 16537.8 23401.6 24112.2 27169.9 profit/ loss from operational activity, thousand mdl -5283.3 -7585.9 -5754.3 -3639.4 net profit (net loss), thousand mdl -3902.0 -3060.1 -606.6 1491.0 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity,% -31.9 -32.4 -23.9 -13.4 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss),% -23.6 -13.1 -2.5 5.5 source: developed by the author based on [amac 2019; amac 2018; amac 2017; amac 2012]. the jsc „regia apa-canal orhei” started to apply corporate governance in 2012. in 2016-2018 there was a significant increase in sales revenue compared to 2011, although the last update of the service tariff was in april 2011. the main factor influencing the indicator was the volume of billed water, which increased in 2018 by 44.8% compared to 2011, as seen in table 8. profitability indicators have an upward trend. the profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity indicator, recorded negative values both in the period 2016-2018 and in the reference year 2011. the lowest point at -32.4% was in 2016, compared to -31.9% in 2011. the profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss) indicator, recorded negative results, with a clear trend of improvement from -23.6% in 2011 to 5.5% in 2018. this was due to the results from financial activity, namely exchange rate differences for long-term loans obtained by the company from the world bank and the european bank for reconstruction and development. jsc „apa-termo” ceadir-lunga was reorganized in 2010. starting with 2016, the sales revenue indicator evolved positively, reaching in 2018 a value of 13.6 million mdl, it was 2.2 times more compared to 2009. the tariff for company services was updated in 2015, being contributing factor to the positive evolution of the indicator. also a determining factor was the volume of billed water, that increased by 42.6% in 2018, compared to 2009 theoretical and scientifical journal 82 december no. 2/2020 table 9 profitability indicators for jsc „apa-termo” ceadir-lunga name of indicators 2009 … 2016 2017 2018 sales revenue, thousand mdl 6241.0 9973.1 11671.7 13644.2 profit/ loss from operational activity, thousand mdl -890.8 -4104.3 -4274.2 -3162.9 net profit (net loss), thousand mdl 476.1 4.9 84.4 2413.3 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity, % -14.3 -41.2 -36.6 -23.2 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss), % 7.6 0.05 0.7 17.7 source: developed by the author based on [amac, 2019; amac, 2018; amac, 2017; amac, 2010]. the profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity indicator, oscillated with negative values in 2016-2018 and in the reference year 2009. the lowest point at -41.2% was in 2016, compared to -14.3% in 2009, table 9. indicator profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss), obtained positive oscillating results, with a clear trend of improvement from 7.6% in 2009 to 17.7% in 2018. this is due to the results from financial activity in the amount of 5.57 million mdl, namely the exchange rate differences referring to the long-term loans obtained by the company from the european bank for reconstruction and development. table 10 profitability indicators for jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hincești name of indicators 2010 … 2016 2017 2018 sales revenue, thousand mdl 10705.0 9907.2 10820.2 11300.9 profit/ loss from operational activity, thousand mdl -478.9 -62.9 78 68.4 net profit (net loss), thousand mdl -61.8 7.6 10 68.6 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity, % -4.5 -0.6 0.7 0.6 profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss), % -0.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 source: developed by the author based on [amac, 2019; amac, 2018; amac, 2017; amac, 2011]. jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hîncești was reorganized in 2011. starting with 2016, the sales revenue indicator evolved positively, reaching a value of 11.3 million mdl in 2018, which is 5.6% more compared to 2010. the tariff for company services was updated in june 2012. the profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of profit from operational activity indicator, had an increasing trend compared to 2010. in the 2016-2018 period, the indicator oscillated around 0%. the maximum value was recorded in 2017 by 0.7%, compared to -4.5% in 2010. the profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss) indicator, recorded oscillating results, mostly positive, with a fine improvement trend from -0.6% in 2010 to 0.6% in 2018, as seen in table 10. the research results show that the best values of the profitability indicators were recorded for the companies jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hîncești, jsc „regia apacanal orhei” and jsc „apa-termo” ceadîr-lunga, which also denotes an efficient activity of corporate governance structures. the board of directors of jsc „regia apacanal orhei” and jsc „apa-termo” ceadîr-lunga is composed of 5 members, and the one from jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hîncești has 3 members. within the company’s board of directors of the jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hîncești and jsc „apa-termo” ceadîr-lunga are also of the employees of the water companies, which essentially contributes to increasing the efficiency of the company's corporate governance. out of the 3 nominated companies, 2 are companies that provide services in additional localities than the reference one. jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hîncești is a regional operator for additional 4 locations, and jsc „regia apacanal orhei” for an additional 5 localities. the leader, based on the analyzed indicators, is jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hincesti, which economy and sociology 83 december no. 2/2020 managed to improve even the profitability of the operational activity, evolving from negative to positive values. jsc „regia apa-canal orhei” and jsc "apa-termo" ceadir-lunga obtained positive results only for the profitability from sales revenue calculated on the basis of net profit (net loss) indicator, influenced, in particular, by exchange rate differences, that is not an indicator which can be managed by the companies’ corporate governance structures. jsc "operator regional apa-canal" hincesti holds 3 members on the board of directors, of which 1 is a employee of the water works company. the company provides services in 4 localities in addition to the town. the weakest results of the profitability indicators were obtained by jsc "regia apa-canal soroca", with both indicators evolving on a strongly negative trend. the company's board is composed of 5 members, all of whom are councillors. the results of the study show that the participation in the company's board of employees from the water company has positive effects on the profitability of companies in the field of public water supply service. conclusions and recommendations the companies in the field of water supply services are at the beginning of the path in the process of implementing corporate governance. only 8 out of 40 water supply companies in urban areas in the republic of moldova are joint stock companies and the other companies have the municipal enterprise form of organisation as well as another form of organisation. the reorganisation into joint stock companies, in most cases, was imposed by signing agreements with international financing institutions but was not an intention manifested by local councils. the positive effects of corporate management were identified in the jsc "operator regional apacanal" hîncești company, which registered positive and growing profitability indicators and at jsc „apătermo” ceadîr-lunga, which recorded the highest growth rate in the profitability of sales income calculated based on the net profit (net loss) indicator value. both companies obtained a high score for the specific indicator of corporate governance board diversity, which indicates that such an approach can lead to better profitability. but due to the fact that no performance indicators are established and the work of the board is not evaluated, it is not possible, at this moment, to establish this relationship for certain. applying the corporate management within jsc „regia apă-canal soroca” did not improve the economic situation. the company’s results have worsened dramatically compared to the reference year – 2011. this company, in terms of uniform diversity, has a board composed of 5 members – all local councilmen. in the research process, the lack of adequate involvement of shareholders in the management of companies was identified. because the shareholders of water companies are local councils, they manage public property and have no direct interest in the efficient management of companies. this is also demonstrated by the results obtained after analyzing the financial condition of water companies, based on the altman model for the 2016 – 2018 period. this analysis identified that all 5 companies have a z-score of less than 1.8, respectively they are unconditionally insolvent. a positive aspect is the evolution with a weak tendency to improve the z-score for most companies, exept jsc „apă-canal leova”. the participation of the water companies’ employees in the company’s board is not enough. only in the case of 5 companies out of 8 in the company’s board, at least one employee of the company is present. likewise, there are no supervisory committees comprising company employees. in order to improve the corporate management within the companies, in the field of public water supply services, the following recommendations are proposed: 1. to assess the effectiveness of the corporate governance process, water companies should develop a set of field-specific performance indicators which would form the basis for the evaluating the company’s board and executive bodies work. 2. in the corporate governance process of companies in the field, the evaluation of the company’s board must be carried out (for exemple, every 3 years) in order to control the efficiency of its activity. this includes the evaluation of its composition, organization and functioning as a group, of competence and effectiveness of each member and committee, as well as of results achieved in relation to the established objectives. 3. signing the contracts of mandate with the company’s board and with the executive bodies for the period was established with the indication of the development strategies of the water works companies and theoretical and scientifical journal 84 december no. 2/2020 the specification of the performance indicators of their activity. reporting on the fulfillment of performance indicators should be performed quarterly. the fulfillment of the performance indicators must directly influence the remuneration of the members of the company’s board and of the executive bodies. 4. the company’s board should comprise a sufficient number of independent professional members. in the case of analyzed companies, the independent members could be hired from other larger or better performing companies in the field. 5. holding the general meeting of shareholders in compliance with all procedures established by law and internal regulations of the company. 6. approval of the corporate governance code [decision of the national commission of the financial market no. 67/10, 24.12.2015]. 7. formation of basic committees. the company’s board should set up committees for the preliminary examination of the most important issues in the company’s activity, such as the remuneration committee, the risk management committee, etc. 8. formation of the supervisory board within the company’s board – this being a non-executive body with attributions to monitor the activity of the executive bodies [ordonanța de urgență a româniei nr. 109/2011, 30.11.2011:5]. in addition, the development of the participation of water companies' employees in the company's board, including the establishment of supervisory committees composed of company employees. the development of risk management practices. none of the analyzed companies have such regulations. water companies may face risks, which can significantly affect a large part of the population of the republic of moldova, since the targeted companies operate critical infrastructure the disruption or destruction of which, can have a major devastating impact on both the population and business, in affected areas. in order to be effective and consistent, any risk management policy must 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[citat 10 aprilie 2020]. disponibil: file:///c:/users/angela~1.cat/appdata/local/temp/27848_md_manua_operator_a.pdf article history received 29 may 2020 accepted 23 october 2020 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/guvernanta-corporativa-acceptiunea-organiza%c5%a3iei-pentru-iovu-ph-d https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/guvernanta-corporativa-acceptiunea-organiza%c5%a3iei-pentru-iovu-ph-d https://www.legis.md/cautare/getresults?doc_id=111764&lang=ro http://legislatie.just.ro/public/detaliidocument/133685 http://dx.doi.org/%2010.1787/9789264236882-en http://www.oecd.org/corporate/ https://www.chisinau.md/public/files/strategice/strateg_vas/apa_canal/statut_sa_apa_canal.pdf https://www.chisinau.md/public/files/strategice/strateg_vas/apa_canal/statut_sa_apa_canal.pdf file:///c:/users/angela~1.cat/appdata/local/temp/27848_md_manua_operator_a.pdf how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 50 no. 2 / 2019 cost-effectiveness analysis for hpv mitigation strategies in the republic of moldova based on infectious disease modelling andrzej jarynowski 1, phd candidate moldova state university, chisinau, republic of moldova interdisciplinary research institute in wroclaw, poland doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.2-05 jel classification: i18, o33, c32, c53, c54, c63 udc: 614.2: 618.1–006.52–08 human papillomavirus (hpv) is a sexually transmittable virus infection, which is a necessary risk factor for developing cervical cancer, first killer for working women in moldova. since 2018 moldova has modified the screening program and the vaccination program (mainly funded externally). to assess the performance of the mitigation policy we propose the cost-effectiveness analysis according to 2 already implemented strategies. (1) vaccination of a single age-cohort, although vaccinating a single cohort may not have a substantial effect in other countries with distinct socio-economic situation. (2) transition to more technologically advance screening ecosystem (changing from romanowski to pap smear), which might not necessary be cost-efficient in low resource settings (if gdp per capita doesn’t grow substantially at the same time). (1) we verified that single cohort vaccination is both cost-beneficial (total costs reduction will balance intervention costs around the year 2040) and cost-efficient (with incremental impact in 20 years perspective on the level of 2300 eur/qaly). moreover, we found out that single year cohort is more beneficial than 5years cohort vaccination scenarios in our mathematical model. this behaviour could be explained by a transitional situation in moldova (hpv epidemic is near outbreak threshold), still small changes of model parameters and initial conditions could cause strong effect in the epidemiology. however, a definitive answer cannot be given with the chosen methodology. (2) transition between romanowski -> pap smear cytology in screening benefits unquestionably in epidemiology e.g. due to a higher specificity. however, further maintenance and higher procedure costs could exceed treatment costs, hence intervention costs would gather an unacceptable share of national resources that are limited and that are dedicated to public health. keywords: computational social science, epidemiology modelling, cost-effectiveness analysis, hpv and cervical cancer. virusul papiloma uman (human papilloma virus sau hpv) este o infecție virală sexual transmisibilă și un factor de risc pentru dezvoltarea cancerului de col uterin – cel mai frecvent tip de boli oncologice la femeile apte de muncă din republica moldova. din 2018, în republica moldova a fost modificat programul de screening și programul de vaccinare (finanțat în principal din exterior). pentru a evalua performanța politicii de atenuare, propunem analiza cost-eficiență în conformitate cu 2 strategii deja implementate. (1) vaccinarea unei singure cohorte de vârstă, deși vaccinarea unei singure cohorte nu poate avea un efect substanțial în alte țări cu o situație socio-economică distinctă. (2) trecerea la ecosistemul de screening avansat din punct de vedere tehnologic (schimbarea de la romanowski la frotiul papanicolau), care ar putea să nu fie necesar din punct de vedere al costurilor în cazul resurselor scăzute (dacă pib-ul pe cap de locuitor nu va crește substanțial în acel moment). (1) am verificat faptul că vaccinarea cu o singură cohorta este benefică atât din punctul de vedere al costurilor (reducerea totală a costurilor va echilibra costurile de intervenție în jurul anului 2040), cât și costurile (cu un impact incremental în perspectivă de 20 de ani la nivelul de 2300 eur / qaly). mai mult, am aflat că o cohortă unică este mai benefică decât vaccinarea continuă în modelul nostru matematic. acest comportament poate fi explicat printr-o situație de tranziție în republica moldova (epidemia de hpv este aproape de pragul izbucnirii), totuși modificările mici ale parametrilor modelului și condițiile inițiale ar putea avea un efect puternic în epidemiologie. cu toate acestea, nu se poate da un răspuns definitiv cu metodologia aleasă. (2) tranziția între romanowski -> citoplasmă papanicolau în 1 © andrzej jarynowski, ajarynowski@gmail.com mailto:ajarynowski@gmail.com economy and sociology 51 no. 2 / 2019 screening beneficiază, fără îndoială, de epidemiologie, de ex., datorită specificității mai mari. cu toate acestea, întreținerea ulterioară și costurile de procedură mai mari ar putea depăși costurile de tratament, prin urmare, costurile de intervenție ar aduna cote inacceptabile în întreaga gamă de resurse naționale limitate dedicate sănătății publice. cuvinte-cheie: științe sociale, calcul, modelare matematică, analiza cost-eficiență, hpv și cancer de col uterin. вирус папилломы человека, или впч, передаваемый половым путем, является одним из факторов риска для развития рака шейки матки – одного из самых распространенных типов онкологических заболеваний у женщин трудоспособного возраста в республике молдова. с 2018 года в республике молдова была изменена программа скрининга и программа вакцинации, финансируемые в основном из внешних источников. для оценки эффективности политики смягчения последствий был предложен анализ экономической эффективности в соответствии с двумя уже реализованными стратегиями. (1) вакцинация одной возрастной группы, хотя вакцинация одной когорты может не иметь существенного эффекта в других странах с отличающейся социально-экономической ситуацией. (2) переход к более технологически продвинутой системе скрининга (переход от мазка романовского к пап-мазку), который может быть необязательным с точки зрения затрат в условиях ограниченных ресурсов (если ввп на душу населения не будет одновременно существенно расти). результаты исследования показали: (1) вакцинация одной когорты выгодна с точки зрения затрат (снижение общих затрат позволит сбалансировать расходы на профилактику примерно к 2040 году) и эффективна с точки зрения затрат (с дополнительным воздействием через 20 лет на уровне 2300 евро / qaly). более того, мы обнаружили, что в нашей математической модели вакцинация одиночной когорты более полезна, чем непрерывная вакцинация. такая ситуация может быть объяснена переходной ситуацией в республике молдова (эпидемия впч близка к порогу вспышки), хотя небольшие изменения параметров модели и начальных условий могут оказать сильное влияние в эпидемиологии. однако использованная методология не позволяет дать однозначный ответ. (2) переход от мазка романовского к цитологическому пап-мазку при скрининге, несомненно, полезен в эпидемиологии, например, из-за более высокой специфичности. тем не менее, дальнейшее обслуживание и более высокие затраты на процедуры могут превысить затраты на лечение, поэтому затраты на профилактику составили бы недопустимо высокую долю расхода ограниченных национальных ресурсах, предназначенных для общественного здравоохранения. ключевые слова: вычислительные социальные науки, эпидемиологические моделирование, анализ экономической эффективности, впч и рак шейки матки. introduction. the republic of moldova has recently started a battle with health problems as sexually transmittable diseases and cancers, but due to financial crisis, lack of program coordination, partly because of a lack of experience, has still a high morbidity and mortality. from ecdc (european centre for disease prevention and control) reports [1, 2012] moldova is a european country with almost highest cervical cancer risks and classified by who (wold health organization) in the field of sexually transmitted diseases at the level of countries of the third world [2, 2012]. additionally, we observed political transformations and beginning of social norm changes in moldova [3, mocanu, v., dumbravenau, a., 2013] as increase of sexuality patterns in number of sexual partners (second demographic transition or post-modernist revolution). we would like to model multi-faceted transmission of diseases [4, arbyn, m. et al., 2009] in the context of determining the best epidemiological control according to budget possibilities. the optimal preventive guidelines are known: cervical screening practice, teenagers’ vaccination and sexual education. in developed countries mitigation strategies are so successful to think even about disease’s eradication soon [5, brisson, m. et al., 2016]. however, costeffectiveness of the described intervention in resource limited setup is still unknown with high uncertainty in hpv vaccination, screening, and cancer treatment costs. the purpose of this research is to prepare the costeffectiveness analysis of new screening and vaccination guidelines already implemented in moldova. theoretical and scientifical journal 52 no. 2 / 2019 this paper describes epidemiological and financing trends on hpv and cervical cancer in moldova according to a new program launched in 2018. around 800k eur in 2017-2018 was spent on capacity building in new screening technology in cytology and another 600k eur was spent on vaccination in 2018/2019. we want decision makers to be informed about proposition of changes to be made in the allocation of the health resources required to implement an optimal (cost/effective) prevention program. thus we examine: (1) a single year cohort vaccination scenario to test its conditional cost-effectiveness (possible sensitivity to sexual partner acquisition rates and country economic growth) as well as; (2) cytology change from romanowski to pap (papanicolau) smears, would not necessary be cost-efficient in low resource settings. epidemiology and fact sheets human papillomavirus, or hpv, is a sexually transmittable virus infection, which is not only the main, but also a necessary risk factor for developing cervical cancer [6, 2012]. the time between getting infected by hpv and developing a cancer can be twenty years or more, therefore a dynamic model of human behaviour would be very useful, so that simulations can be made and different scenarios compared. we observe both behavioural change (sexual partner number increases) and demographical change (population ageing) [7, lupusor, a. et al., 2017]. among the oncogenic hpvs, the most severe one is type 16, present in about half of all cervical cancer cases. we model one hpv strain (16) and imitate multi-strains environment. recent studies have shown that the main safety precaution with respect to cervical cancer is going to be a combination of vaccination and screening – since only types of specific vaccines (as for type 16 and 18 in our study) are available and there are as many as 15 oncogenic high risk hpvs not covered by vaccine used in moldova. figure 1. selected demographical historical data till 2016 and projection (averaged) till 2036. cervical cancer death cases in age cohorts {left}. number of 15 years old girls entering sexual maturity age {right} source: author`s calculations based on the institute of oncology and statistics moldova data. the republic of moldova is one of europe's poorest nations (whenever we use statistics of moldova, we mean the dniester right bank only). total yearly expenditure on health amounts is limited to just 150 eur [fig. 2] per capita (in comparison, the australian intervention in hpv costs are 8 times higher than the moldovan one and at the same time consume 5 times less available resources) and reliable data on cervical cancer is missing. some official statements are untrustable due to a well-known corruption mechanism of reporting "virtual" patients [8, jarynowski, a., 2015]. the economic situation over the past 2 decades has not allowed for the health systems development [9, skarphedinsdottir, m. et al., 2014]. till now some statistics differ significantly dependently of data source. moreover, public health system in moldova had no capacity to couple with official screening program till 2017 (women >20 y. o. every 2 years), where more than 700k test should be done yearly (in 2014 there were around 200k unique cytologies and many sites were already overloaded). demographically, republic of moldova had (in years 1998-2014) a population of 1.4-1.6 million women ages 15 years and older who are at risk of developing cervical cancer. sexual active woman cohort (age 15-64) was in range 1.25-1.35 millions [10, 2014]. we observe both behavioural change (sexual partner increase) and demographical change (population ageing, but still very young), which both corresponding to second demographic transition since soviet economy and sociology 53 no. 2 / 2019 union collapse. last 10 years estimates indicate that every year 400-550 (approx. data) women were diagnosed with cervical cancer and 145-220 (register data) died from the disease [11, 2019]. estimated societal cost was around 5000 disability-adjusted life years (dalys) every year (or 3000 qaly qualityadjusted life years) [11, 2019; 12, davies, p. et al., 2017]. cervical cancer ranks as the 2nd most frequent cancer among women in republic of moldova and the 1st most frequent cancer among women between 15 and 44 years of age with the share of 39% of all kind of working age woman cancer cases [12, davies, p. et al., 2017]. the incidence of cervical cancer, had increased from 2005 to 2009. data on the hpv burden is not available, but generalizing old studies with data from other southeastern european countries, 1520% of women in the general population have hpv and 80-90% had it in their live [13, rottger, j. et al., 2017]. prevalence of the most oncogenic hpv-16/18 strains is estimated on 25%. spatial consideration should be included, while urban/rural sexual behaviour and access to health services differ significantly. moldova introduced hpv vaccines in selected subpopulation in 2016 and full coverage of 10 y. o. girls with support from gavi in 2018 only [fig. 4]. first national wide suboptimal screening program was introduced in 2013 and updated in 2016 to optimal age-range in almost similar schema as we proposed a year before [12, davies, p. et al., 2017]. the majority of cervical cytology was processed by romanowski staining technique – standard for the former soviet union [14, davies, p., valuta, d., 2014]. figure 2. the moldovan gdp patterns (with unpredictable political and economic situation) {left y axe} and hpv intervention costs – the third health expenditure – as % in total health expenses {right y axe} source: author`s visualization based on the statistics moldova data. cost-effectiveness analysis let consider more precise monetary and populational effects of intervention used in health economy [15, jarynovski, a., 2015; 16, 2016]. to do so, we introduce quality-adjusted life-year (qaly) – a measure of disease burden, including both the quality and the quantity of life lived. the qaly is based on the number of years of life and adjusted to health state (where 1 is a perfect health and 0 is death) that would be saved by the intervention. qaly indicates in the best way the benefits of intervention, because it is sensitive to current patient age (literally to current life expectancy). the intervention is highly cost– effective if its incremental cost per qaly yearly [17, damm et al., 2017] is below gdp per capita of given country (~2.5k eur for moldova) or it could be considered as cost-effective if its below 3*gdp (~7.5k eur for moldova) [18, phelps, c., 2016]. in previous papers we showed, that targeted vaccination is costeffective (the incremental qaly between targeted and no vaccination is less than 4k eur per qaly in 40 years perspective, however practical implementation could be very difficult), while screening the too old and too young woman is not cost-effective (the incremental cost per qaly between national and our scenario was 20k eur per qaly in 20 years perspective) respectively to moldova gdp [19, 2014]. it is important to mention, that cervical cancer incidence probably will be decreasing any way in moldova even with no new additional interventions [20, jarynowski, a., cernov, l., 2018]. moreover, the theoretical and scientifical journal 54 no. 2 / 2019 moldovan cervical cancer perspective [fig. 1, 7] looks much better than in other eastern and central european countries [21, dosekan, o., 2010], probably due to recent transition of screening guidelines from opportunistic to organized at the beginning of the xxi-st century [22, davies, p. et al., 2016], and because of a relatively young society with increasing knowledge of sti (sexual transmittable infections). research questions. moldova has modified since 2016 the screening program [14, davies, p., valuta, d., 2014] almost the same as we recommended [15, jarynovski, a., 2015] with small difference in maximum age of screening with 61 instead of 65 which could be an artefact of our age-cohorting schema. other analytical research approach as prime [23, jit, m. et al., 2014] and optima [24, goroshko, a. et al., 2015] have provided sufficient cost – effectiveness analysis of standard procedures as screening and vaccination, however their universal tools (both of them were built to be used in many counties) do not fit moldovan specificity in many details. big intervention in the period of 2017-2020 with the main objective as reorganization of screening and new vaccination was externally funded in amount of 1.2m eur [25, 2017]. the ministry of health declared the will to continue the vaccination program already for years 2019-2025 [26, 2017], but we are not sure about the real financing of this project (money in amount of 400k eur are secured for 2019 only [25, 2017]). there is also a strong disbelieve in the moldovan society about vaccinations safety issues [27, 2019] with a strong anti-vaccination political fuel [28, 2018]. there is still an open question about the cost effectiveness of point (single cohort) vaccinations, because vaccinating single cohort could have no satisfactory effects for the whole population [29, qiao, m. et al., 2013]. the real scenarios assuming vaccinating 10 y. o. girls in 2018 was not implemented by us, because the first effects would be visible too late for simulation time span. we verify instead a single year vaccination of 14 y. o. girls in 2018, so we can keep projection of costs, demographics and epidemiology for the next 20 years only. quadrivalent vaccine (targeting hpv oncogenic strains 16, 18, and also non-oncogenic stains 9 and 11 which cause genital warts) is used in 2018, so we introduced additionally to previous studies, effects on genital warts (cost of curing and qaly losses). increase in cytology cost was also updated due to the change from romanowski to pap smear. vaccination in a single action of a single cohort has not yet been considered from health economic perspective for moldova. the moldova case cost-effectiveness analysis is also important to be disseminated worldwide [30, ekwunife, o.i. et al., 2017], due to similar externally founded projects in other low and middle income countries (e.g. gavithe vaccine alliance). research question 1: testing possible impact of the new 'single' 2018 year project funded mostly by external sources vaccines for cohort of girls born in 2007 ~600k eur (400k eur is a financial cost for program continuation in 2019 with gavi substitution): estimating incremental costs of adding hpv vaccine in single 2018 to the existing immunization program (reasonable assumption that moldova will not continue full coverage vaccinating because of lack of resources); comparing scenarios of “single year vaccination” in full coverage in 2018 against vaccination of the same amount of girls in the same age but in a 5 year time span (20% of each cohort each year). research question 2: testing the best budget possibilities according to national screening guidelines since 2018 (romanowski ->pap cytology change [31, rebar, a. et al., 1982]) with capacity building [32, regan, d., donovan, b., 2016] cost of 800k eur (also funded mostly by external sources): 1. comparing scenarios of various procedure costs per unit (pessimistic – with romanian price in long term, moderate with russian price [33, 2019] in long term, and optimistic – no significant change). model and methodology and adjusting realistic scenarios according to provided information, a model for moldova was proposed. it is a set of deterministic differential equations (implemented in vensim). stochasticity [34, geffen, n., scholz, s., 2017] was introduced in sexual partner matching schema. the model has aggregated the most important path of infection (heterosexual contacts only), cancer development and prevention scenarios (more than 100 equations and 200 parameters). demographical dataset from comes from “population and demographic processes” statistical databank of national bureau of statistics [10, 2014; 35, 2017]. hpv dynamics (transmission dynamics via sexual contacts) associated also with the occurrence of cervical cancer (cancer development) was inspired by polish model implementation [36, jarynowski, a., economy and sociology 55 no. 2 / 2019 serafimovic, a., 2014]. mathematical formulation of hpv related issues have been already carefully analysed, because its epidemiology has been widely described and modelled in recent years [32, regan, d., donovan, b., 2016; 37, canfel, k. et al., 2019]. we have prepared the costbenefit and costeffectiveness analysis for various vaccination strategies, various screening programs with control over other preventive programs (using condoms/sexual education) for moldova, based on its own demography (sex/age structure with aging and birth/death processes) [35, 2017] and sexual behaviour of heterosexual part of population only [38, rahman, q., 2003]. population is divided in subcategories (both man and woman) which are aging, transmitting infection and developing cancer, where newborn to sexuality means reaching 15 y. o. [fig. 3]. figure 3. simplified model methodology with main tunable variables screening protocol and vaccination strategies). full model in left bottom corner -visualization of this very complicated model in vensim (exportable version can be obtained from github: https://github.com/ajarynowski/ hpv_moldova – free vensim reader is available from www.vensim.com) source: author’s own model available on github. we used data since 1998 (2002) till 2014 (2017) to adjust model parameters and we project till our result around 2035 (2038). we use mathematical [39, grabowski, a., rosinska, m., 2012] and sociological concepts [21, dosekan, o., 2010] within complex system methodology. mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by sexual contacts (as hpv) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions (there are dozens of such studies in literature [36, jarynowski, a., serafimovic, a., 2014; 40, elbasha, e.h. et al., 2007; 41, ryding, j., 2008]. we have used probability of infection per a new partner as a main transmission driver. the shape of sexual partner distribution [42, liljeros, f. et al., 2000] was followed from finish study [43, barnabas, p. et al., 2006] and adjusted by scaling to obtain mean partners number in moldova. the most unknown demographical parameter is the increase in partner numbers [44, 2018]. that increase of partner’ acquisition was introduced as a modifiable variable and tested for few scenarios [44, 2018]. in our model woman are stratified in 5 years cohorts (stocks) starting form 15 y. o. effective screening intervals (average interval between smears) were previously implemented as a variable (more important from cost/effectiveness analysis) describing healthcare system capacity [20, jarynowski, a., cernov, l., 2018]. change of screening procedures from opportunistic to regular is also represented in effective screening frequencies [14, davies, p., valuta, d., 2014] and costs [fig. 4]. condom use was also tunable variable, while sexual education significantly increased in recent few years [45, 2016; 46, jarynowski, a., 2015]. standard https://github.com/ajarynowski/%20hpv_moldova https://github.com/ajarynowski/%20hpv_moldova https://github.com/ajarynowski/%20hpv_moldova https://github.com/ajarynowski/%20hpv_moldova http://www.vensim.com/ http://www.vensim.com/ http://www.vensim.com/ theoretical and scientifical journal 56 no. 2 / 2019 model is better described in extended version of previous report [46, jarynowski, a., 2015], and new functionalities are mentioned directly in this paper. the model and its parametrization in vensim environment is publicly available: http://github.com/ajarynowski/hpv_moldova. figure 4. simplified moldovan history of pathogenic hpv strains costs. intervention (int) costs (sexual education, vaccination, screening) and total (tot) costs (intervention costs with mainly cervical cancer treatment as well as other treatment costs of pre-cancer abnormalities, anus cancer, genital warts) source: authors own projections. in our calculations we provide economic costs (total expenses), which differ from financial costs (moldova government expenses), because of the importance of foreign aids. intervention costs (sexual education, vaccination, screening) till 2017 counts as ¼ of treatment costs. in big investments in moldovan cervical cancer program in years 2017-2020 intervention costs (funded by gavi, world bank, united nations population fund – unfpa, swiss contribution – sdc, european union – ue, etc.) exceeds treatment costs. figure 5. selected control variables in model projection ((a) effective infection probability – condom use, (b) effective screening interval in years, (c) cancer treatment cost in eur, (d) sexual partner change rate as multiplicator) source: author`s own assumptions. http://github.com/ajarynowski/hpv_moldova http://github.com/ajarynowski/hpv_moldova http://github.com/ajarynowski/hpv_moldova economy and sociology 57 no. 2 / 2019 results – research question 1) romanowski->pap smears there is only a little difference in epidemiology between romanowski and pap smear in specificity [tab. 1]. lower specificity of romanowski can be corrected by repeated pap test (mainly with borderline results) [47, davis, p. et al. 2016]. however, there is a substantial difference in cost procedure and pap smear could be 30% to 90% more expensive for a single procedure [fig. 6], but the same time number of procedures would decreased by around 10%, because there is no need for repetition any more. table 1 characteristics of smears. false positive rate change-> test repetition (up to 10% due to unclear result) cytology sensitivity for morphological abnormalities in hpv positive stage without mid and high-grade dysplasia sensitivity for morphological abnormalities in pre cancer stage with mid and high-grade dysplasia (cin>i) specificity for morphological abnormalities in hpv positive or precancer stage pap 60% 90% 98% romanowski 60% 90% ~90 % source: author`s own estimates based on [48, 2013]. while the rising trend in innovative medical technologies (as pap smear in this case), the chances for efficiency gains and costs reductions are usually large. however, new technology-enabled models of healthcare delivery are not always cost-effective. capacity building (transitional) costs in this case were covered by foreign sponsors, but equipment amortization and staff cost should be sustain by moldovan themselves. we try to anticipate costs per procedure in next 20 years [fig. 6]. we choose target level of future price from romania (as a pessimistic scenario), russia (moderated scenario) and current price with most likely interest rate (as optimistic scenario). we assume 15 years amortization period for equipment (characteristic convey curve shape) [fig. 6]. reader must be aware, that currently pcr test together with liquid base pap smear is a standard in developed countries, however machine learning development in image processing for low-cost diagnosis [49, gallay, c. et al., 2017] could change whole landscape in next years. figure 6. smear cost per unit for pessimistic (pes), moderate (mode) and optimistic (opt) scenarios. in transitional time window (2017-2018) cost per procedure (operational cost) deceased, because capacity building costs ~800k eur (training old and hiring new staff, laboratory equipment etc.) includes partially operational costs source: author`s own assumptions. let’s consider baseline scenario, for which moldova will stay in romanowski regime. if we assume that drop-out rate at the level of 20% in repetition tests, there will be around 12 qaly/yearly loses more that in pap scenario in 20 years projection. around 10 cancer cases and 4 deaths could be averted with theoretical and scientifical journal 58 no. 2 / 2019 the transition to pap in 20 years perspective. however, cost comparison is more difficult due to potential instability of pap procedure price [fig. 6], so incremental cost-effectiveness vary from 0 in optimistic to 50k incremental eur/qaly in pessimistic scenario. results – research question 2) ‘single’ cohort vaccination first of all, we compare the single cohort vaccination against no widespread vaccination at all. vaccination is both cost-beneficial (total cost reduction balance intervention cost around year 2040) and cost-efficient (with incremental impact in 20 years perspective on the level of 2200 eur/qaly) [fig. 7]. figure 7. comparison of total costs of hpv related issued (interventions, genital warts and cancers) {left} and qaly losses {right} with and without vaccination in 2018 source: author`s own projections. thus we examine such a single year vaccination scenario to show its conditional costeffectiveness in comparison with 5-year cohort vaccination scenario. we assume that 15120 girls has been vaccinated for both single year cohort and 5-year cohort scenarios two years after and before 2018 [fig. 8]. figure 8. vaccination coverage of 15120 girls in both scenarios single year/5-years cohort source: author`s own assumptions. economy and sociology 59 no. 2 / 2019 we found out that difference in number of hpv infections is ~610 and difference in qaly saved is ~ 80 in favour of single year against 5-years cohort vaccination in next 20 years. comparing a single year with 5-years cohort in young woman (15-19 y. o.) we observed the increase of infection number between a single year and 5-years cohort scenarios in first 1-2 years (because we started 2 years earlier vaccination in 5-years scenario), then around 2019-2022 there is a significant reduction in infections, and there is no long term difference between scenarios (due to aging – moving vaccinated girls to older cohorts). in males, first difference between single year and 5-years cohort scenarios appears in next 5-10 years (when vaccinated women enter their early 20th years old – the most sexually active period of their life [33, 2019]). conclusions. recommendations and limitation the optimal preventive guidelines for cervical cancer are known [32, regan, d., donovan, b., 2016]: cervical screening practice, widespread vaccination and sexual education. however, interventions with the highest impact and lowest price should be prioritized [50, kasprzyk, r. et al., 2010]. in addition, moldova – lower middle income country – straggles with challenging demographic processes, like the ageing of the society [51, gagauz, o. et al., 2016; 52, gagauz, o, pahomii, i., 2017] and the increase of sexual activity [53, hrusciov, e., 2017] combined with the unstable economic situation [54, pischina, t., 2016]. we suggest (according to our simulation) that the official preventive program for cervical cancer in moldova is optimal in terms of costs and medical efficiency in vaccination schema and suboptimal in screening protocols (optimal in medical efficiency only). we present a simplified representation of the system with around 200 static parameters and additional 20 time dependent control parameters – variables (such as condom use, effective screening interval, partner’s acquisition rate, cancer treatment cost [fig. 5], etc.). we consider different scenarios varying the tunable variables (vaccination coverage type [fig. 8] and smear cost [fig. 6]). exact parametrization of the model used for this paper can be found in repository (github). however, reader must be aware, that presented model and parametrization has been chosen according to a heuristic methodology [55, jarynowski, a. et al., 2018]. although we explored other models and parameters configuration, we cannot claim, that our model is the only and the best one for targeting research question 1 (vaccination) and 2 (screening). on the other hand, the main advantage of our model in comparison with well-established modelling tools already applied to moldova (developed by who – prime [23, jit, m. et al., 2014] and sponsored by world bank optima []) is its flexibility. in our model, we can test different scenarios (as cohort vaccination, and smear price dynamics), which is not possible or feasible in prime and optima, and our findings should be understood as complementary results only. the idea of transition from romanowski to pap smear cytology (research question 1), is unquestionable (due to higher specificity of the last). however, further maintenance and higher procedure costs [fig. 6] might exceed treatment costs, implying unacceptable share in whole national limited resources dedicated for public health for intervention costs [fig. 2, 4]. we found an interesting paradox, that transition to more technologically advanced health system (changing from romanowski to pap smears), would not necessary be cost-efficient (incremental cost-effectiveness from 0 to 50 k eur/qaly) in such low resource settings as in moldova and unstable gdp growth perspective. reader must be aware, that we simplified difference between romanowski and pap smears in procedure cost (trained staff and lab equipment amortization) and specificity (test repetition in romanowski method) issue only, even both methods have many variants [57, 2003]. we reopen discussion about vaccination guidelines in low-income countries (as moldova), where cost of widespread action could be too high for local governments (research question 2). vaccination could be both cost-beneficial (total costs reduction balance intervention costs before 2037) and costeffective (with incremental impact in 20 years on the level of 2200 eur/qaly). moreover, the single cohort (point) vaccination (as it was introduced in moldova) exceeds the 5 years cohort by approximately 610 less infections and approximately 80 less qaly lost in 20 years’ time horizon. the possible explanation of this nonintuitive behaviour might be because hpv in moldova is rather close to epidemic reproduction threshold rate [55, jarynowski, a. et al., 2018], still small change of model parameters and initial conditions could cause strong effect in epidemiology. main effect of intervention is probably via men, which avoid infection (mainly around year 2025 – the peak of sexual activity of vaccinated girls) and will not infect other women. the decrease in infection numbers (and qaly loses in consequence) theoretical and scientifical journal 60 no. 2 / 2019 resulting from the ‘single’ teenage cohort hpv vaccination in 2018 might provide protective effects in heterosexual men through ‘local’ herd immunity [56, donovan, b. et al., 2011]. this can have an effect probably while changing partners in moldova is still not as common as in other countries [57, 2003; 58, rostaș, i. ș.a., 2014]. however, change in initial conditions and parameter values could diminish positive effect (e.g. higher partner’s acquisition rate). another limitation is system dynamic approach [55, jarynowski, a. et al., 2018], so few features as real sexual patterns matching were not implemented. there is no distinguish of rural and urban population or any spatial resolution [59, belik, v. et al., 2011] in the model, which have impact both on partner’s acquisition and vaccine/screening uptake. phenomenon of single cohort vaccination cost-effectiveness must be investigated more carefully in different methodology (as abm agent based modelling [55, jarynowski, a. et al., 2018]) from presented one (system dynamics) to understand role of men in immunisation efficacy for example. moreover, no proper sensitivity analysis could be readily performed using the current methodology (limitation of vensim software) in presented study, even we have found dependence on changing condition, so only through abm – obtained results could be generalized. another limitation is time horizon for 20 years, which is already too far for price/demography/technological assumptions and too short to even test efficiency of vaccination of cohort of 10 y. o. girls (so we could test vaccinating 14 y. o. instead). we have used aggregated age cohorting [60, anderson, r.m., may, r.m., 1992] with 5 years window, which on the one hand side is a popular approach [46, jarynowski, a., 2015; horn, j. et al., 2013] – on the second hand it has significant limitations, so year by year analysis could be more proper for single year cohort vaccination schema. we recommend continuation of vaccination which is both financial (with gavi substitute) and economic cost-effective according to our model. in terms of screening technology transition: there is no way to go back, however screening costs have to be periodically monitored and national guidelines could be revisited (if necessary) according to economic situation in republic of moldova. acknowledgment aj would like to thank to liana cernov, florentin paladi, ghennadii gubceac from the moldova state university, vitaly belik from the free university of berlin, david regan, trevor dougherty and richard gray from the kirby institute in sydney as well as the panther project for partial financial 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http://www.crjm.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/idom.raport.incluziune.2011.rom_.pdf http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/papers/belik_2011a.pdf http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/papers/belik_2011a.pdf http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/papers/belik_2011a.pdf http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/papers/belik_2011a.pdf economy and sociology 123 no. 1/ 2019 clustering of ukrainian regions based on value orientations and political choice of the populations: methodological rationale and analysis using combining data sources uliana leshenok1, senior economist, ptoukha institute for demography and social studies of the national academy of sciences of ukraine, department for modeling of socio-economic processes and structures, ukraine the aim of this study is clustering of administrative-territorial units of ukraine on the basis of value orientations and the electoral choice of the population of these units. the k-means method is used. creation of macroregions based on the political orientations of the population is quite widespread, but such approaches have a number of limitations, primarily due to the fact that the list of political leaders or political parties can change significantly in rather short periods of time and because of difficulties with using of several political parties/leaders simultaneously in the analysis. the «value» in this article is defined within schwartz's theory as desirable goals that go beyond specific situations, differ in importance from each other and are guiding principles in human life. the analysis uses the ten schwartz's values, which are grouped into four dimensions: «conservation», «self-enhancement», «selftranscendence» and «openness to change». the data set for this study is a combination of two sources of data – sample survey and electoral statistics. thus, the data set in this study is formed by a combination of the results of the ukrainian vote in the parliamentary elections in 2012 and sample survey – european social survey – the latest wave of which was held in ukraine in 2012. the european social survey is the most actual source of data on the value orientations of ukrainians which is in free access. after 2012 this study in ukraine was no longer conducted. the main result of this study is the creation of clusters of administrative-territorial units based on the similarity of the results of voting and value orientations of population in these units. the first cluster includes administrative-territorial units, where population has more expressed values of self-transcendence than in ukraine as a whole. in the second cluster there are units where population has more expressed values of self-enhancement and openness to change. the third cluster is characterized by more expressive values of self-transcendence and conservation. except of different levels of expression values, clusters differ by the level of support of political parties that participated in parliamentary elections. this approach allows evaluate the received cluster structure in dynamics, use in analysis results of national and local elections in different years. also it makes clustering space two-dimensional, which enables not only to discover similar administrative-territorial units, but also, for example, to identify groups of parties whose supporters share similar values. although the article uses data from 2012, the successful application of this approach to the clustering of administrative-territorial units opens up the ways for such clustering on more recent data. keywords: value, value orientations, political orientations, electoral choice, schwartz value theory, cluster analysis, k-means. scopul acestui studiu este gruparea unităților administrativ-teritoriale din ucraina pe baza orientărilor de valoare și a alegerii electorale a populației acestor unități. se folosește metoda k-means. crearea macroregiunilor bazate pe orientările politice ale populației este destul de răspândită, însă astfel de abordări au o serie de limitări, în primul rând datorită faptului că lista liderilor politici sau a partidelor politice se poate schimba semnificativ în perioade scurte de timp și din cauza dificultății de a folosi mai multe politici părțile / liderii în analiză în același timp. «valorile» din acest articol sunt definite în conformitate cu teoria lui s. schwartz ca scopuri dorite care depășesc situațiile specifice, diferă una de cealaltă în grade de importanță și sunt principii directoare în viața umană. analiza folosește cele zece valori schwartz, grupate în patru sectoare de valoare: «conservarea», «afirmarea de sine», «grijă pentru oameni și natură» și «deschiderea spre schimbare». matricea datelor pentru acest studiu este o 1 © uliana leshenok, leshenok_u@ukr.net theoretical and scientifical journal 124 no. 1 / 2019 combinație a două surse de date – un sondaj prin sondaj și statistici electorale. astfel, datele stabilite în acest studiu se formează prin combinarea rezultatelor votării populației ucrainei în alegerile parlamentare din 2012 și printr-un sondaj prin sondaj – cercetarea socială europeană – ultimul val de care sa desfășurat în ucraina în 2012. cercetarea socială europeană este cea mai relevantă sursă de date privind orientările valorice ale ucrainenilor, care este disponibilă în mod liber. după 2012, acest studiu în ucraina nu mai era efectuat. principalul rezultat al acestui articol este crearea de grupuri de unități administrativ-teritoriale bazate pe similitudinea rezultatelor voturilor și a orientărilor valorice ale populației în aceste unități. primul grup include unități administrativ-teritoriale, unde populația are valori mai pronunțate de «grijă pentru oameni și natură» decât în întreaga ucraina. în cel de-al doilea grup, există zone în care populația are valori mai pronunțate de «afirmarea de sine» și «deschiderea spre schimbare». al treilea cluster se caracterizează prin valori mai pronunțate ale «grijă pentru oameni și natură» și «conservarea». pe lângă diferitele niveluri de exprimare a valorilor, grupurile diferă în ceea ce privește nivelul de sprijin pentru partidele politice care au participat la alegerile parlamentare. o astfel de abordare face posibilă evaluarea structurii clusterului obținută în dinamică, folosirea în analiză a rezultatelor alegerilor naționale și locale pentru anii diferiți. de asemenea, ca urmare a aplicării acestei abordări, spațiul clusterului devine bidimensional, ceea ce permite nu numai găsirea unor unități administrativ-teritoriale similare, dar și, de exemplu, identificarea grupurilor de părți ale căror suporteri împărtășesc valori similare. începând cu anul 2012, succesul a fost folosit pentru a facilita accesul la clasificări administrativ-teritorială a unităților din perspectiva desfășurării unor astfel de clasificări ale bolilor noi. cuvinte-cheie: valori, orientări de valoare, orientări politice, alegeri electorale, teoria valorii lui schwarz, analiză cluster, kmeans. целью данного исследования является кластеризация административнотерриториальных единиц украины на основе ценностных ориентаций и электорального выбора населения этих единиц. используется метод k-means. создание макрорегионов на основе политических ориентаций населения довольно широко распространено, но такие подходы имеют ряд ограничений, в первую очередь из-за того, что список политических лидеров или политических партий может значительно измениться за довольно короткие периоды времени и из-за трудности с использованием нескольких политических партий/лидеров в анализе одновременно. «ценности» в этой статье определяются согласно теории ш. шварца как желаемые цели, которые выходят за рамки конкретных ситуаций, отличаются друг от друга по степени важности и являются руководящими принципами в жизни человека. в анализе используются десять ценностей шварца, которые сгруппированы в четыре ценностные секторы, а именно: «сохранение», «самоутверждение», «забота о людях и природе» и «открытость к изменениям». массив данных для этого исследования является комбинацией двух источников данных – выборочного исследования и электоральной статистики. таким образом, массив данных в этом исследовании формируется путем объединения результатов голосования населения украины на парламентских выборах 2012 года и выборочного опроса – европейского социального исследования – последняя волна которого была проведена в украине в 2012 году. европейское социальное исследование является наиболее актуальным источником данных о ценностных ориентациях украинцев, которое находится в свободном доступе. после 2012 года это исследование в украине больше не проводилось. основным результатом данной статьи является создание кластеров административно-территориальных единиц на основе схожести результатов голосования и ценностных ориентаций населения в этих единицах. первый кластер включает в себя административно-территориальные единицы, где население имеет более выраженные ценности «заботы о людях и природе», чем в целом по украине. во втором кластер входят территории, где население имеет более выраженные ценности «самоутверждения» и «открытости к изменениям». третий кластер характеризуется более выраженными ценностями «заботы о людях и природе» и «сохранения». помимо разных уровней выраженности ценностей, кластеры различаются по уровню поддержки политических партий, которые участвовали в парламентских выборах. такой подход позволяет оценивать полученную кластерную структуру в динамике, использовать в анализе результаты economy and sociology 125 no. 1/ 2019 общенациональных и местных выборов за разные годы. также, в результате применения данного подхода, кластерное пространство становится двумерным, что позволяет не только обнаружить похожие административно-территориальные единицы, но и, например, выявить группы партий, сторонники которых разделяют схожие ценности. хотя в статье использованы данные 2012 года, успешное применение данного подхода к кластеризации административно-территориальных единиц открывает перспективы для проведения подобной кластеризации на более новых данных. ключевые слова: ценности, ценностные ориентации, политические ориентации, электоральный выбор, теория ценностей шварца, кластерный анализ, kmeans. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-10 jel classification: z13 udc: 332.133:351(477) introduction. creation of macroregions on the basis of administrative-territorial units is quite common among sociological researches. the basis for clustering may be different, but the resulting cluster structure gives the researcher a new variable – «macroregion», which can be used in a variety of explanatory and predictive models. it’s no exception for political orientations and electoral choice: these variables quite often are used in approaches to regionalization of the territory based on the political preferences of the population or on the results of voting at national or local elections. with this approach, the «macroregion» can serve as a powerful explanatory variable in electoral models, and it is possible to predict the electoral choice of the population through the regional structure of political preferences. the approach to regionalization of the territory of ukraine on the basis of political orientations has been widespread for many years among ukrainian sociologists. in fact, based on the results of several parliamentary and presidential elections, it is indeed possible to see a certain division into regions based on electoral choices. certain stereotypes concerning voting in different regions of ukraine are repeatedly broadcast in the mass media and in scientific publications. but nowadays there are more and more ideas about the artificial construction of such a regional division. the simplified understanding of the division of ukraine into two split regions (western and eastern) is used not as an explanatory variable in scientific research, but in order to manipulate public opinion. for example, the clear segmentation of the electoral space of ukraine on the basis of civilizational and, consequently, foreign policy characteristics, was first used as a mobilization electoral technology during the 2004 presidential campaign [12, p.291]. the basis of many studies of the relationship between political orientations and the place of residence of the population is the concept of «regional identity». the main assumption here is about existence of a certain regional identity that can be more powerful than, for example, national or ethnic. and identity affects the range of orientations, attitudes and preferences of the population living in these territories. within this approach, the term «regional voting» is often used [13]. the factor that influences the electoral choice is the cultural characteristics of the population, which, according to this approach, are different in different regions. there are differences in foreign policy orientations, language, and national heroes. such regional identities are the product of historical development, settlement, educational and age structure of the population, which are rooted in habits, lifestyles, perceptions and explanations by individuals of reality, their social and economic status [15, p.32]. another approach to the role of residence in explaining political orientations and electoral choices is to distinguish such a key factor as the role of political elites. one more approach to the use of spatial data in investigations of ukrainians political orientations is the construction of the opposition «center-periphery». some researchers assume that the population's readiness for change is a factor that influences the difference in voting between cities and villages. so, people in cities may easier to learn new trends and adapt to change. in political preferences this can be manifested, for example, at the highest level of conservatism among population in villages compared with urban residents [13, p.58]. in addition, factors affecting the voting outcomes of this approach can be the standard of living and the level of education of the population, the density of social networks, specific problems and needs that are significantly different for urban and rural populations. in the sociological literature the region is considered, first of all, as theoretical and scientifical journal 126 no. 1 / 2019 the space of a certain social structure, the organization of power and cultural traditions, which gives grounds for sociologists to speak of a territorially differentiated association of people [14, p.94]. thus, for modern ukrainian researches of political orientations it is actual to develop new approaches to the use of spatial data in the study of political orientation and electoral choices of the ukrainian population. one such approach can be the combination of electoral choice and value orientations for clustering administrative-territorial units to create macroregions. value orientations are more stable than political ones, therefore, such a combination makes the cluster structure more reliable. also, the combination of values and voting results gives an opportunity to evaluate the cluster structure in dynamics, combining the results of national and local elections in different years with the value orientations of ukrainians. in addition, the values reflect the cultural and historical features of the region, which increases the validity of such clustering. the value theory. there are two approaches to the definition of values in social sciences: “values” can bee defined as characteristics of individuals or social groups. an approach to the interpretation of values as individual characteristics was formed within psychology, where values were used as a variable through which human behavior can be explained. for example, allport and vernon define values as individual’s basic convictions about what is and is not important in his/her life. [1, p.505]. in rokeach’s definition of values, as well as allport’s and vernon’s, the central element is conviction. rokeach defined the value concept as «an enduring belief that a specific mode of conduct or end-state of existence is personally or socially preferable to an opposite or converse mode of conduct or end-state of existence». [7, p.5]. rokeach distinguished two main types of values: terminal and instrumental values [11, p.154]. terminal values refer to desirable and end-state existence, the goals that a person would like to achieve during them. on the other hand, instrumental values refer to preferable modes of behavior, means of achieving the terminal values. the rokeach theory of individual values was gradually superseded by schwartz’s theory of basic values. today schwartz's approach, with the approach of r. inglehart, is one of the most authoritative method of measuring values, including both national and international comparative studies (for instance, european social survey or world value survey). according to s. schwartz’s values theory, values are defined as transsituational goals, varying in importance, that serve as guiding principles in the life of a person or group [9, p.903]. it is quite right to agree with allport’s, vernon’s, rokeach’s and schwartz’s statements, who consider values to be basic beliefs and guiding principles in human life, because in this case, values can be considered as an integrative element that combines the distinct attitudes and orientations of a person in relation to various spheres of society’s life, including in the sphere of politics. but values can also be defined as characteristics of social groups. with such an approach, values express an understanding of what is considered acceptable in a society and desirable in its culture, that is, certain cultural ideals. cultural values form and justify individual and group beliefs, actions and goals, these values are the basis of institutional norms and daily practices. for example, a cultural value emphasis on success and ambition may be reflected in and promote highly competitive economic systems, confrontational legal systems, and child-rearing practices that pressure children to achieve [8, p.139]. kluckhohn also is one of the researches who interpret values as characteristics of social groups. he assumes that people have certain biological features and characteristics that are the basis for the development of culture, and that people consider their own beliefs and practices to be natural, and those beliefs and practices that differ from their own are strange and even false. he defines value as a conception, explicit or implicit, distinctive of an individual or characteristic of a group, of the desirable, which influences the selection from available modes, means, and ends of action [3, p.362]. schwartz, in addition to the theory of individual values, also developed an approach to measuring cultural values. the idea underlying this approach is similar to that of kluckhohn: schwartz also assumes that cultural values are manifested in how societies oppose the basic problems in daily human activity. people must recognize these problems, plan responses to them, and motivate one another to cope with them [8, p.140]. hofstede focused extensively on national-level patterns of values, arguing that values form a stable portion of national culture. [3, p.378]. hofstede in his approach to the definition of values tries to combine both individual and cultural values: he thinks that values are simultaneously characteristics of individuals and communities. he defines values as the tendency to choose a certain mode of action among other possible ways [4, p.19]. economy and sociology 127 no. 1/ 2019 in our opinion, understanding of values as beliefs and ideas inherent in social formations may be helpful to the understanding of values as individual characteristics.this perspective opens up the way for the analysis of values not only at the level of an individual, but also at the level of small or large social groups, for example, at the level of the regions of the country. data and methods. in this study the correlation between electoral choice and value orientations is researched using data of sample survey and the results of the voting of the ukrainian population on the parliamentary elections. the results of the voting in the elections are presented on the site central election commission, this data is aggregated to the level of polling stations. the interpretation of the concept of «value» is based on s. schwartz approach. accordingly, values are defined as transsituational goals, varying in importance, that serve as guiding principles in the life of a person or group [9, p.903]. schwartz's main innovation, in comparison with earlier approaches to the definition of values, is the assumption that there is a particular structure between the different values, which may be universal for different cultures. schwartz suggests that this structure has the form of circular motivation continuum. this model has some special features [10, p.110]:  adjacent values in the circle are motivationally compatible;  values become less compatible as the distance between them around the circle increases;  values on opposite sides of the circle express conflicting motivations. in the initial version of the schwarz’s value theory it is proposed to include in the circular continuum 10 basic human values that can be reduced to 4 dimensions. according to schwarz’s model dimension «conservation» consists of values «security», «conformity» and «tradition», the opposite dimension «openness to change» includes values «stimulation», «self-direction» and «hedonism». dimension «self-enhancement» consists of values «power» and «achievement», and the opposite dimension «self-transcendence» includes values «universalism» and «benevolence». on the basis of this model schwarz created two questionnaires – the schwartz value survey and the portrait values questionnaire. for analysis of value orientation in this study we use the portrait values questionnaire. this questionnaire includes 21 value portraits of abstract persons. respondent should decide how he or she is similar to this portraits using scale with 6 items: from «very much like me» to «not like me at all» [9, p.10]. there are examples of such portraits in table 1. table 1 indicators using for measuring the value «security» in the portrait values questionnaire value indicators in the portrait values questionnaire security it is important to him/her to live in secure surroundings. he/she avoids anything that might endanger his/her safety. it is important to him/her that the government ensures his/her safety against all threats. he/she wants the state to be strong so it can defend its citizens. source: elaborated by the author. the portrait values questionnaire is included to the questionnaire of the european social survey. ukraine took part in this project from 2004 to 2012. the european social survey is the most actual source of data on the value orientations of ukrainians which is in free access. last ukrainian wave of european social survey, conducted in 2012, is used to analyze the value orientations in this study. as a variable, which indicate the electoral choice of the population, in this study is used the results of the voting in the parliamentary elections held in 2012. only political parties that gain more than 1% of the vote are selected for analysis. as noted above, the portrait values questionnaire includes 21 indicators for measuring 10 values. each of these portraits respondent estimates from 1 («very much like me») to 6 («not like me at all»). for each portrait the arithmetic mean is calculated, and then this indicator was subtracted from each value index. such a calculation technique makes it possible to overcome the problem that some respondents are inclined to identify all the portraits as very much like to him or her. similarly, four value dimensions are formed: «conservation», «selftranscendence», «openness to change» and «self-enhancement». we use these four dimensions to simplify interpretation of values. theoretical and scientifical journal 128 no. 1 / 2019 thus, the data set in this study is formed by a combination of the results of the ukrainian vote in the parliamentary elections in 2012 and sample survey – european social survey – the latest wave of which was held in ukraine in 2012. such data sets have a number of features. working with statistical data we usually don’t have information on individual level, just aggregated data. in the electoral statistics used in this study, polling station, which, depending on size, can represent the results of voting from ten voters to almost three thousand, is the unit of analysis. on the other hand, in sample survey there is data on individual level, but, in the same time, there are limited opportunities to identify the domicile of the respondents. using data set of european social survey, we can identify only region and the type of settlement (urban or rural). the data set of the european social survey is aggregated at the region level, and the arithmetic mean for four value dimensions is calculated. these results are attached to an array of voting results. results. in this study we classify administrative-territorial units on the basis of value orientations and electoral choice of population in these units. accordingly, the hypothesis is that there is a statistically significant correlation between the value orientations and the electoral choice of the population of ukraine at the regional level. to test this hypothesis, the pearson correlation coefficient is calculated between the expressiveness of the values of «conservation», «self-transcendence», «openness to change» and «self-enhancement» and the results of voting for political parties at the 2012 parliamentary elections, the results are presented in table 2. table 2 correlation coefficients between voting for political parties and the expressiveness of value orientations share of party value orientations self-enhancement self-transcendence openness to change conservation «partiya regioniv» -0,15** 0,13** -0,07** -0,06** «batkivshchyna» 0,13** -0,09** -0,10** 0,07** «udar» 0,13** -0,10** 0,06** -0,09** communist party of ukraine -0,10** 0,09** 0,08** -0,09** «svoboda» 0,02** -0,05** -0,14** 0,18** party of n. korolevskaya «ukraina -vpered!» 0,02** 0,004 -0,05** -0,08** «nasha ukraina» 0,17** -0,15** -0,04** 0,03** radical party of o. lyashko 0,11** -0,20** 0,13** -0,06** ** the correlation is significant at the 0,01 source: elaborated by the author. before the interpretation of the correlation coefficients, it is necessary to provide information on the parties who participated in the 2012 parliamentary elections. ideological differences between parties in the ukrainian political space are practically absent. it is possible to note only the left orientation of the communist party, as well as the right radical orientation of the «svoboda». but a differential criterion in this case may be a foreign policy vector. thus, the «partiya regioniv», the communist party and the party of n. korolevskaya support the eastern foreign policy vector. while the other five parties support the western foreign policy vector. in addition, the «partiya regioniv» and the communist party created a coalition in 2010-2012. at the same time, a coalition, which was formed in 2014, included the «batkivshchyna», «udar» and «svoboda». based on the correlation coefficients, we can confirm the hypothesis about statistically significant relationship between expressiveness of value orientations and the level of support for political parties. coefficients are not high, but the reason of this is indirect influence value orientations on electoral choice [5; 2; 6]. whereas the correlation between value orientations and electoral choice is confirmed, this allows clustering administrative-territorial units based on these two variables. the division of administrative-territorial units into macroregions in this study is proposed to be carried out by cluster analysis using the k-means method. coordinates for cluster centers are based on the economy and sociology 129 no. 1/ 2019 correlation between the level of support for political parties and the expressiveness of value orientations, divided into four dimensions: «conservation», «self-transcendence», «openness to change» and «self-enhancement». if a political party has a statically significant positive correlation with one of the value dimension, then the cluster center is given the maximum values for the share of this party, and for this value dimension. if this political force also has a statistically significant negative correlation with some value dimensions, the cluster center is assigned the minimum value for these sectors. the following cluster structure is shown in the table 3. table 3 initial cluster centers based on ukrainians value orientations and the results of the 2012 parliamentary elections cluster №1 cluster №2 cluster №3 level of support of the «partiya regioniv» max level of support of the communist party of ukraine max level of support of the party of n. korolevskaya «ukraina -vpered!» max level of support of the «batkivshchyna» max level of support of the «nasha ukraina» max level of support of the «svoboda» max level of support of the «udar» max level of support of the radical party of o. lyashko max self-enhancement values min max self-transcendence values max min openness to change values min conservation values max source: elaborated by the author. for example, the first cluster includes administrative-territorial units, which are characterized by a high level of support for the «partiya regioniv» and communist party (the maximum values for the shares of these parties for this cluster center), the high level of values «self-transcendence» (the maximum value for the cluster center) and low level of «self-enhancement» values (the minimum value for a cluster center). similarly, two other clusters are formed. cluster analysis is done using k-means. the final cluster centers are shown in the table 4. table 4 final cluster centers based on ukrainians value orientations and the results of the 2012 parliamentary elections cluster №1 cluster №2 cluster №3 arithmetic mean for whole data set level of support of the «partiya regioniv» 0,447 0,181 0,145 0,271 level of support of the communist party of ukraine 0,217 0,095 0,065 0,133 level of support of the party of n. korolevskaya «ukraina -vpered!» 0,017 0,014 0,012 0,014 level of support of the «batkivshchyna» 0,146 0,352 0,398 0,287 level of support of the «nasha ukraina» 0,005 0,017 0,017 0,013 level of support of the «svoboda» 0,027 0,123 0,175 0,100 level of support of the «udar» 0,103 0,156 0,152 0,135 level of support of the radical party of o. lyashko 0,008 0,025 0,010 0,015 self-enhancement values -0,246 -0,013 -0,319 -0,174 self-transcendence values 0,447 0,226 0,501 0,375 openness to change values -0,438 -0,293 -0,600 -0,422 conservation values 0,227 0,111 0,398 0,224 source: elaborated by the author. theoretical and scientifical journal 130 no. 1 / 2019 thus, the first cluster includes administrative-territorial units, where population has more expressed values of self-transcendence than in ukraine as a whole, as well as a significantly higher level of support for two parties – «partiya regioniv» and communist party. in the second cluster there are units where population has more expressed values of self-enhancement and openness to change, and the level of support of three parties («batkivshchyna», «nasha ukraina» and «udar») is higher than in ukraine as a whole. the third cluster is characterized by more expressive values of self-transcendence and conservation, as well as a higher level of support for the «svoboda». distribution of administrative-territorial units by clusters is visualized on figure 1. figure 1. clustering of the administrative-territorial units of ukraine on the basis of value orientations and electoral choice of the population in these territories source: elaborated by the author. the first cluster has clear geographic boundaries: the administrative-territorial units applied to this cluster are concentrated in the southeastern part of ukraine. the second and third clusters do not have clear geographic boundaries and intersect with each other, which can be explained by the correlation between rates of political parties. conclusions. this study shows the potential of combining two data sources: sample survey and electoral statistics. such data sets have a number of features. working with statistical data we usually don’t have information on individual level, just aggregated data. on the other hand, in sample survey there is data on individual level, but, in the same time, there are limited opportunities to identify the domicile of the respondents. as a result, value orientations, measured in european social survey, were aggregated at the region level for combining with results of the ukrainian vote in the 2012 parliamentary elections. the main result of this study is the creation of clusters of administrative-territorial units based on the similarity of the results of voting and value orientations of population in these units. the approach to constructing macroregions based on the political preferences of the population is quite widespread. with this approach, the macroregion is represented as an explanatory variable in electoral models. but such an approach has a number of limitations, primarily due to the fact that the list of political leaders or political parties can change significantly in rather short periods of time. on the same time, value orientations, measured according to standardized methods, can be compared in dynamics. in addition, the study of human values proves that value orientations are more stable than political orientations or electoral choice, which makes the resulting cluster structure more economy and sociology 131 no. 1/ 2019 reliable. the combination of values and results of voting enables to evaluate the received cluster structure in dynamics, combining the results of national and local elections in different years with the value orientations of ukrainians. merging of value orientations and voting results, makes the clustering space two-dimensional. this enables not only to discover similar administrative-territorial units, but also, for example, to identify groups of parties whose supporters share similar values. in addition, the values reflect the cultural and historical features of the region, which increases the validity of such clustering. so, the combination of two sources of data, electoral statistics and a sample survey gives opportunities for expanding existing knowledge both on values and political orientations, and on the relationships between these variables. using values in cluster analysis make resulting cluster structure more valid and reliable. in addition, one of the perspectives for future researches is the possibility of clustering of political actors themselves based on the value orientations of their supporters. but this approach also has a number of limitations, which are primarily related to combining data from different sources. since the value orientations were calculated at the level of the regions, the interpretation of the results can be made only at the aggregated level and does not apply to the level of individuals. one of the perspectives for further research is to increase the accuracy of aggregation of data from two sources, for example, by taking into account not only the region but also the type of settlement. but, at the same time, despite the fact that the article uses data of 2012, the results of the analysis do not lose their relevance, since they demonstrate the potential of using simultaneously values and political orientations for the clustering of administrative-territorial units. the successful application of such approach on data of 2012 opens up the ways for conducting such clustering on more recent data. thus, existing approaches to clustering of administrative-territorial units mainly involve onedimensional space, which complicates using of several political parties/leaders simultaneously in the analysis. also, within such approaches it is quite difficult to compare the cluster structure in dynamics, such as political actors can change very quickly, and, in the result, common basis for clustering disappears. the approach presented in this paper makes it possible to combine and use in the analysis several political actors simultaneously. in addition, using of value orientations makes it possible to make comparisons in time, since values become the common basis for clustering even in the case of different political actors. also, using of values makes it possible to take into account, in addition to political orientations, the cultural characteristics of the population of the analyzed areas. references 1. campbell, john. b., jayawickreme, eranda, hanson, emily j. measures of values and moral personality. measures of personality and social psychological constructs. academic press, 2014. 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õunapuu, t. et al. rokeach’s instrumental and terminal values as descriptors of modern organization values. in: international journal of organizational leadership. 2016, no. 5, pp. 151-161. 12. kutsenko, e. the phenomenon of electoral axiotechnologies: the nature and practice of electoral campaigns in ukraine. in: scientific notes of the i. f. kuras institute of political and ethnic studies. 2014, no. 2, pp. 287-305. 13. kuchuran, a. social structuring and processes of regionalization: a conceptual approach. in: bulletin of national technical university of ukraine «kpi». in: political science. sociology. law. 2014, no. 2, pp. 55-62. 14. stegniy, o. regional factor of development of the political culture of the population of ukraine. in: sociology: theory, methods, marketing. 2005, no. 3, pp. 94-122. 15. stegniy, o. types of political culture of regional communities of ukraine. in: bulletin of lviv polytechnic national university. 2008, no. 2, pp. 32-56. recommended for publication: 24.06.2019 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2011.00828.x?purchase_referrer=www.google.md&tracking_action=preview_click&r3_referer=wol&show_checkout=1 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2011.00828.x?purchase_referrer=www.google.md&tracking_action=preview_click&r3_referer=wol&show_checkout=1 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2011.00828.x?purchase_referrer=www.google.md&tracking_action=preview_click&r3_referer=wol&show_checkout=1 1 economy and sociology temporal trends and patterns in covid-19 mortality in the republic of moldova olga penina1, doctor in medicine, associate professor, nicolae testemitanu state university of medicine and pharmacy doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.2-07 jel classification: i100 udc: 314.14(478) abstract the republic of moldova ministry of health releases individual death records of covid-19 patients on a daily basis since march 18, 2020. it is important to understand the quality of this data and to compare them to medical death certificate data available for 2020 where covid-19 infection was indicated as an underlying cause of death. aim: to analyse the temporal trends and age and sex pattern of mortality from covid-19 infection and to assess the impact of the pandemic on the overall mortality in moldova. materials and methods: individual death records published by the ministry of health between march 18, 2020 and october, 10 2021 and medical death certificates for 2017-2020. demographic methods of mortality analysis, descriptive and inferential statistics were used. results: in moldova, mortality from covid-19 infection is limited to laboratory-confirmed cases, which does not meet the who recommended definition. the weekly dynamics of covid-19-related deaths published by the ministry of health are mainly consistent with the death certificate data for 2020. three waves of mortality were identified with their peaks in the middle of december 2020, march 2021 and october 2021. excess mortality among the elderly in late 2020 (wave 1) is attributed in part to cardiovascular disease. the male-to-female ratio for mortality from covid-19 infection is higher in older age and much less so in middle age. the covid-19 pandemic has had quite a sizable effect on mortality trends and cause-of-death patterns in 2020. keywords: mortality, covid-19, data quality, excess mortality, republic of moldova. ministerul sănătății al republicii moldova publică zilnic înregistrările individuale ale deceselor pacienților cu covid-19 începând cu 18 martie 2020. este important să înțelegem calitatea acestor date și să le comparăm cu datele privind certificatele medicale de deces disponibile pentru 2020, unde infecția cu covid-19 a fost indicată ca o cauză principală a decesului. scop: să analizeze tendințele temporale și structura pe vârstă și sex a mortalității prin infecția cu covid-19 și să evalueze impactul pandemiei asupra mortalității generale în moldova. materiale și metode: înregistrările individuale de deces publicate de ministerul sănătății în perioada 18 martie 2020 – 10 octombrie 2021, precum și certificate medicale de deces pentru anii 2017-2020. au fost utilizate metode demografice de analiză a mortalității, statistici descriptive și inferențiale. rezultate: în moldova, mortalitatea prin infecția cu covid-19 este limitată la cazurile confirmate de laborator, ceea ce nu corespunde definiției recomandate de oms. dinamica săptămânală a deceselor covid19 publicată de ministerul sănătății este în concordanță, în principal, cu datele certificatelor de deces pentru 2020. au fost identificate trei valuri de mortalitate, cu vârfuri la mijlocul lunii decembrie 2020, martie 2021 și octombrie 2021. mortalitatea excesivă în rândul persoanelor în vârstă la sfârșitul anului 2020 (valul 1) este atribuită parțial bolilor cardiovasculare. raportul dintre bărbați și femei pentru mortalitatea cauzată de covid-19 este mai mare la vârsta înaintată și mult mai puțin la vârsta mijlocie. pandemia de covid-19 a avut un efect destul de considerabil asupra tendințelor și structurii mortalității pe cauze de deces în 2020. 1 olga penina, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3884-2751 e-mail: olga.penina@usmf.md https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3884-2751 mailto:olga.penina@usmf.md 2 theoretical and scientifical journal cuvinte cheie: mortalitate, covid-19, calitatea datelor, mortalitatea excesivă, republica moldova. министерство здравоохранения республики молдова публикует ежедневно индивидуальные записи о смерти пациентов с подтверждённой инфекцией covid-19, начиная с 18 марта 2020 года. важно понимать качество этих данных, а также произвести их сравнение с данными медицинских свидетельств о смерти, доступными за 2020 год, в которых инфекция covid-19 была указана в качестве основной причины смерти. цель: проанализировать временные тенденции и возрастно-половые особенности структуры смертности от инфекции covid-19, а также оценить влияние пандемии на общую смертность в республике молдова. материал и методы: собраны индивидуальные записи о смерти пациентов с covid-19 инфекцией, которые были опубликованы министерством здравоохранения в период с 18 марта 2020 по 10 октября 2021, а также медицинские свидетельства о смерти за 2017-2020 годы. были использованы демографические методы анализа смертности, методы описательной и инференциальной статистики. результаты: в республике молдова смертность от инфекции covid-19 ограничивается лабораторно подтвержденными случаями, что не соответствует определению, рекомендованному воз. еженедельная динамика смертей от covid-19, публикуемых ежедневно министерством здравоохранения, главным образом согласуется с данными медицинских свидетельств о смерти за 2020 год. были определены три волны смертности с пиками в середине декабря 2020 года, в марте и октябре 2021 года. избыточная смертность среди пожилых людей в конце 2020 года (волна 1) частично может быть объяснена заболеваниями сердечно-сосудистой системы. соотношение мужчин и женщин по смертности от инфекции covid-19 в пожилом возрасте значительно выше, чем в трудоспособном возрасте. пандемия covid-19 оказала значительное влияние на тенденции и структуру смертности по причинам смерти в 2020 году. ключевые слова: смертность, covid-19, качество данных, избыточная смертность, республика молдова. introduction the covid-19 outbreak began in late 2019 and spread rapidly around the world, with significant health impacts. national and international authorities have established several indicators to track the pandemic. analysis of mortality by sex and age is a useful tool for better understanding pandemic evolution and monitoring the effect of health policy measures. if the number of positive cases of covid-19 or hospitalizations is directly dependent on the country's resources, the death counts are less dependent. furthermore, various data collection systems exist and the differences between them influence the comparative analysis between the countries(garcia et al. 2021). according to the definition of what constitutes a covid-19 death recommended by the world health organization, “a death due to covid-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a suspected or confirmed covid-19 case unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to covid disease (e.g., trauma). there should be no period of complete recovery from covid-19 between illness and death”. this definition was approved by the ministry of health (mh) of the republic of moldova with the following icd-10 codes: u07.1 – covid-19, virus identified u07.2 – covid-19, virus unidentified however, in reality, only laboratory-confirmed cases of death due to covid-19 (u07.1) are registered in the country. hospitals, if a patient with confirmed covid-19 infection died in hospital, or primary health care institutions, if a patient with confirmed covid-19 infection died at home, notify the national agency for public health daily about the confirmed covid-19 deaths. these data are transferred to the mh to be published on their website. 3 economy and sociology this paper addresses the comparability of different data sources on covid-19 and changes in temporal mortality trends and patterns in moldova between march 18, 2020 and october 10, 2021. the research questions are as follows: 1. are individual covid-19 death records published daily by mh comparable to medical death certificate data in 2020? 2. what are the weekly mortality trends and mortality patterns by sex and age for covid-19 infection? 3. what impact did the covid-19 infection have on overall mortality in 2020? literature review a growing number of publications on covid-19 mortality, including international comparative analyses, have appeared in recent times. many countries, including the republic of moldova, publish covid-19 death counts on a regular basis. however, before analysing such data, it is essential to understand the principles behind the registration of covid-19-related deaths in a given country. from this perspective, the “demography of covid-19 deaths” database (https://dccovid.site.ined.fr/en/) produced by the french institute for demographic studies (ined) gathers deaths by age and sex across 21 countries, including the republic of moldova, and provides metadata for each country (ined 2021c). according to garcia et al., some countries report numbers of deaths attributable to covid-19, according to different sources and definitions (garcia et al. 2021). for example, in england and wales, the office for national statistics (ons) provide covid-19 death data that include “covid-19 or suspected covid-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions” (ined 2020). garcia et al. consider this type of data as “comprehensive”. at the same time, the national health service provides data on covid19-related deaths in england that occurred in hospitals among people who tested positive for covid19. this type of data is considered “restrictive” by the same author. moreover, the definition of covid-19 death can vary within one country over time. for example, in belgium, only pcrconfirmed death counts were reported initially, while probable or presumed cases began to be included as the pandemic progressed (garcia et al. 2021). in belgium, in the first wave, only 68.8% of the covid-19-related deaths were laboratory-confirmed, while in the second wave, due to improved testing capacity, this share reached 95.3% (peeters et al. 2021). in romania, covid-19 death statistics refer to laboratory-confirmed deaths reported by medical facilities, but deaths among suspected cases need to be laboratory-confirmed post-mortem. of the 1 360 individual death records published by the romanian ministry of health between march 22, 2020 and june 10, 2020, 2.5% were diagnosed with covid-19 infection post-mortem. however, these figures may be underestimated as the daily publication of death records reduces the accuracy of the data (since june 11, 2020, romania has released aggregate death data related to covid-19). analysis of covid-19 mortality time series should also be interpreted with caution and based on metadata released by the responsible authorities. for example, in romania, since may 28, 2021, daily data on covid-19 deaths also include deaths that occurred before the reference date which coincides with the date of reporting. as a result, of the 46430 covid-19-related deaths reported on october 28, 2021, nearly 8% occurred prior to the reference date. garcia et al. demonstrate that in the group of countries with comprehensive death counts, such as england and wales (ons data), the distribution of covid-19-related deaths by age and gender is characterized by the highest proportion at age 90 and older. in these countries, the distribution of covid-19 deaths by gender and age is primarily similar to that of death from all causes. countries that provide the restricted data sources on covid-19 deaths, such as italy or ukraine, have younger age distribution. 4 theoretical and scientifical journal data sources and used methods in the study, we use two data sources regarding covid-19 deaths: 1. daily death records published by the ministry of health on the website https://msmps.gov.md since march 18, 2020 up to now; 2. death certificates with the underlying cause of death u07.1 provided by the national agency for public health for 2017-2020. the ministry of health publishes daily death records notified to the national agency for public health during the last 24 hours with the indication of the serial death number, age in complete years, sex, district, name of the medical institution where the case of death was registered and concomitant diseases. if a deceased person belonged to medical personnel, his/her name, age, and place of work are usually indicated. prior to november 11, 2020, the mh also published the date of hospitalization or transfer to another hospital. on october 14, 2021, 96% of deaths from covid-19 were registered as occurred in hospitals, while 0.4% of deaths were registered at home due to the patient’s refusal of hospitalization as indicated in the daily mh report. for the remaining deaths (3.6%), the place of death was not indicated. further, for reasons of simplicity, we will refer to this data source as “hospital death records”. the mh also publishes data on deaths registered in the transnistrian region (8% as of october 14, 2021 or 600 out of 7137 deaths). however, in our analysis, deaths from covid-19 in transnistria were excluded from the analysis because of the lack of data on the corresponding population. in moldovan official statistics, death counts registered in this region are not included since 1998. to calculate weekly probabilities of death, we used population counts referring to the usually resident population (without transnistria) as of january 1, 2020 and january 1, 2021. in the analysis, we used weekly probabilities of death, life tables, the method of decomposition (andreev and shkolnikov 2012), standardised death rates (direct method, the 2013 european standard population), descriptive and inferential statistics. since data on the age of death are skewed (shapirowilk test, p<0.05 and data visualization based on q-q plot), we used median and interquartile range (iqr) as descriptive statistics and wilcoxon rank sum test as inferential statistics. to analyse weekly excess mortality in 2020, we used the 2017-19 average as a baseline to ensure better robustness of data over time. data were analysed in r. the results of research and discussions figure 1 presents weekly changes in covid-19 deaths in moldova based on two data sources: hospital death records of laboratory-confirmed covid-19 cases from march 18, 2020 to october 7, 2021 and death certificate records with the underlying cause u07.1 from march 18, 2020 to december 31, 2020. figure 1. hospital death records (laboratory-confirmed deaths) versus death certificate records (underlying cause = u07.1), moldova, both sexes source: hospital death records – ministry of health (https://msmps.gov.md); death certificate records – national agency for public health 5 economy and sociology following a relatively steady increase in covid-19-related deaths since march 18, 2020, the first wave occurred between late november and late december, with the highest weekly deaths in mid-december 2020. the second wave occurred shortly after the first one, from early march to late april, and the intensity was much higher. finally, after a certain relief in may and summer, the new wave started in the fall of 2021. at least before early november 2020, in other words, before the first wave, the two curves coincide nearly exactly. the intensity of the first peak in mortality in november and december 2020 is underestimated and somewhat delayed over time, based on hospital death records, compared to certificate death records. the explanation for this is simple. during this period over-burdened medical facilities have sent information to the national agency for public health on a daily basis with some delay. on the other hand, weekly deaths, according to death certificates, fall sharply at the very end of 2020, while those according to hospital death records decrease smoothly until mid-january 2021. this situation for the temporal evolution of death certificate records is quite typical since some deaths that occurred at the end of december will be registered at the beginning of the next year. nonetheless, the cumulative number of deaths on december 31, 2020 is very close according to two sources. figure 2 shows the weekly probabilities of covid-19 deaths by gender for the preand post60 age groups. data for the whole period are based on hospital death records. figure 2. weekly probability of dying from covid-19, hospital death records (laboratory-confirmed cases), moldova, by sex and age source: hospital death records – ministry of health (https://msmps.gov.md) note: without transnistria it is interesting to note that in the pre-70 age group, the crude probabilities of death do not differ by gender. at the same time, mortality is higher among males than females in the post-70 age group prior to the start of the second wave. during the second and third waves, the intensity of covid-19related mortality does not appear to differ by gender, whether in middle-aged or elderly individuals. for both genders and all ages, the second wave referring to the warm season (spring) proved much stronger than the first wave referring to the cold season (late autumn – beginning of winter). the situation improved substantially in the months when the lowest (january, february) or highest (late spring, 6 theoretical and scientifical journal summer) temperatures were observed. certainly, these improvements are in part a result of restrictive measures against covid-19. in moldova, vaccination for covid-19 started in early march 2021, and as of october 23, 2021, 849435 individuals had received two doses of the covid-19 vaccine (government of the republic of moldova 2021), representing 33% of the usually resident population. the impact of the vaccination campaign will be particularly important for the current third wave. the distribution of cumulative covid-19 deaths by gender and age as of december 31, 2020 and october 7, 2021 is shown in figure 3. on december 31, 2020, the maximum number of deaths was recorded in the 65-69 age group for both males and females. the median age at death was 67.0 years in males and 67.5 years in females at that time, with no statistically significant difference (p>0.05, wilcoxon rank sum test). on october 7, 2021, the maximum cumulative number of deaths attributable to covid-19 occurred in the same age group (65-69). however, this time, the distribution of deaths has shifted according to gender. the proportion of deaths among older men, particularly those aged 70 to 74 and 85 and over, has increased considerably. among women, as of october 7, 2021, the distribution of deaths remained essentially the same as at the end of 2020, although the impact of the oldest age group increased as it also did among men. these changes are most likely due to a better diagnosis of covid-19 in the elderly. as a result, the median age at death has increased in men (68.0 years, iqr=61-74) and women (69.0 years, iqr=62-75). the difference in the median age at death among men and women on october 7, 2021 is statistically significant (p<0.05, wilcoxon rank sum test). the same applies to the difference between the two points in time, for both men and women. figure 3. age and sex distribution of covid-19 deaths as of 07 october 2021 as compared to 31 december 2020, moldova source: based on hospital death records published by the ministry of health (https://msmps.gov.md) https://msmps.gov.md/ 7 economy and sociology another important aspect in the analysis of time series is excess mortality that can be defined as the ratio of weekly probabilities of dying in 2020 to the average in 2017-19. this ratio calculated for all ages and causes of death has the highest values (2.5-3.0) at the end of 2020 when the first wave was recorded. figure 4 presents weekly excess mortality in 2020 by main age groups for all causes of death and diseases of the circulatory system. excessive all-cause mortality for those over the age of 40 in november and december 2020 makes perfect sense. however, it is not quite usual to see excess mortality from diseases of the circulatory system among the elderly in late 2020. this is most likely the result of misdiagnosis and attribution of undiagnosed covid-19 deaths to cardiovascular disease. figure 4. ratio of weekly probabilities of dying from all causes and cardiovascular diseases in 2020 to average in 2017-2019, by main age groups, both sexes, moldova source: based on death certificate records provided by the national agency for public health to understand the impact of covid-19 infection on life expectancy at birth (e0), it is possible to decompose the changes in e0 between 2019 and 2020 by age and cause of death (fig. 5). in moldova, life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.8 years in males and 1.1 years in females in 2020 (65.8 in males and 73.9 in females) compared to 2019 (66.6 in males and 75 in females). in men, this drop in life expectancy is explained by the increase in mortality from infectious diseases (-0.6 years) and diseases of the circulatory system (-0.2 years). in women, the increase in mortality from infectious diseases is also the main cause of the decrease in life expectancy (-0.8 years), while the impact of cardiovascular diseases is noticeable (-0.2 years). the increase in infectious disease-related mortality in 2020 was between 50 and 79 for males and between 45 and 79 for females. cardiovascular mortality has increased in 2020 compared to 2019 in some older age groups (65-74 in men and 70-74 and 85+ in women). in moldova, positive annual trends in old-age mortality from cardiovascular diseases, especially among women, have been observed since at least 2005. the reversal in 2020 is very likely the result of excessive cardiovascular mortality among older adults in late 2020. the lack of mortality growth in the oldest age group can be attributed to positive trends in cardiovascular mortality that also continued in 2020 up to the first wave of covid-19. 8 theoretical and scientifical journal figure 5. decomposition of changes in life expectancy at birth in 2020 compared to 2019 by age and causes of death in moldova, by sex source: based on death certificate records provided by the national agency for public health in terms of the standardised death rates, the covid-19 pandemic resulted in a 10-fold increase in infectious disease mortality in 2020 compared to the previous year for both men and women. as a result of this enormous increase, the risk of dying from infectious diseases in 2020 was even higher than that from injury and poisoning in males or identical to that from diseases of the digestive system in females. conclusions the covid-19 deaths registration system in moldova is limited to laboratory-confirmed cases recorded in hospitals or at home when a patient refuses to be hospitalized. in 2020, hospital records statistics are more or less consistent with death certificate information where covid-19 is reported as an underlying cause of death. in 2020, deaths from covid-19 infection were under-registered, especially among older adults. excess mortality among the elderly in late 2020 (wave 1) is attributed in part to cardiovascular disease. in 2021, the registration of covid-19 deaths has improved compared to 2020, especially among the elderly, due to better testing capacities. the male-to-female ratio for covid-19 mortality is higher in older age and much less so in middle age. the gender difference among older adults is larger for the first wave and smaller for the second wave and the start of the current third wave. an important aspect of the research is the gender difference in covid19 mortality from an international perspective. disregarding the under-registration of covid-19 deaths in 2020, the pandemic has had a quite sizable effect on life expectancy at birth for both genders. considering the intensity of the second wave and the current third wave, the impact of infections seems to increase in 2021. vaccination is the only solution to overcome the crisis. 9 economy and sociology references 1. andreev, evgueni m., and vladimir m. shkolnikov. 2012. an excel spreadsheet for the decomposition of a difference between two values of an aggregate demographic measure by stepwise replacement running from young to old ages. 0 ed. tr-2012-002. rostock: max planck institute for demographic research. doi: 10.4054/mpidr-tr-2012-002. 2. garcia, jenny, catalina torres, magali barbieri, carlo giovanni camarda, emmanuelle cambois, arianna caporali, france meslé, svitlana poniakina, jean-marie robine, and karine guerrouche. 2021. ‘différences de mortalité par covid-19 : conséquence des imperfections et de la diversité des systèmes de collecte des données’: population vol. 76(1):37–76. doi: 10.3917/popu.2101.0037. 3. peeters, i., m. vermeulen, n. bustos sierra, f. renard, j. van der heyden, a. scohy, t. braeye, n. bossuyt, f. haarhuis, k. proesmans, c. vernemmen, and m. vanhaverbeke. 2021. survellance of covid-19 mortality in belgium epidemiology and methodology during 1st and 2nd wave (march 2020 14 february 2021). brussels, belgium : sciensano. 2021, september. d/2021/14.440/57. sciensano. acknowledgements the study was carried out within the framework of the research project 21.00208.8007.02/pd “disparitățile socio-demografice și regionale ale mortalității în republica moldova”. received 02 november 2021 accepted 15 december 2021 1 economy and sociology the resilience of central and eastern european banking systems during the covid-19 crisis dorina clichici1, senior researcher, phd institute for world economy, romanian academy, cristina-georgiana zeldea2, researcher, phd student institute for world economy, romanian academy bucharest university of economic studies doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.2-02 jel classification: g21, g28, h62 udc: 336.71 abstract the covid-19 crisis has severely affected central and eastern european (cee) states, causing major economic activities to be blocked during the pandemic, shrinking domestic demand and investment. the aim of the research is to analyse the impact of the pandemic event on cee banking systems, in the light of the most relevant indicators of banking stability. both qualitative and quantitative research methods were used to achieve the goal. the results of the analysis revealed that the pandemic crisis did not affect the quality of banking assets in the cee, the rate of non-performing loans remained at a fairly low level in the most of the states. at the same time, due to major reforms that followed the international financial crisis of 2008, banks have a sufficiently high level of capitalization and a reasonable level of indebtedness, reflecting a high resilience to shock of cee banking systems. however, extremely low level of interest rates in the pandemic have determined a deterioration in asset performance in most banking systems in the cee. moreover, the outlook regarding the cee banking systems remains quite uncertain. considering the large-scale measures to reschedule credit rates, through moratoriums on bank loans, but also the financial support schemes initiated by central banks and governments, the cee region is facing high risk costs, which manifest mainly through the migration over time of credit risk exposure. in this context, non-performing loan ratios are expected to increase in the near future. moreover, the widespread shift to lower interest rates will exert pressure on lending margins. keywords: covid-19 crisis, cee banking systems, return on assets, return on bank capital, bank capitalization, leverage ratio criza covid-19 a afectat grav statele din centrul și estul europei (cee), provocând blocarea activităților economice majore în perioada pandemiei, diminuând cererea și investițiile interne. scopul cercetării este de a analiza impactul evenimentului pandemic asupra sistemelor bancare din cee, în contextul celor mai relevanți indicatori ai stabilității bancare. pentru atingerea scopului au fost utilizate metode de cercetare atât calitative, cât și cantitative. rezultatele analizei au relevat că evenimentul pandemic nu a afectat calitatea activelor bancare în ece, rata creditelor neperformante s-a menținut în majoritatea statelor la un nivel destul de scăzut. în același timp, datorită reformelor majore care au urmat crizei financiare internaționale din 2008, băncile au un nivel suficient de ridicat de capitalizare și un nivel rezonabil de îndatorare, manifestând o rezistență ridicată la șoc a sistemelor bancare din cee. cu toate acestea, nivelul extrem de scăzut al ratelor dobânzilor în pandemie a determinat o deteriorare a performanței activelor bancare în cee. totuși, perspectivele privind sistemele bancare din cee rămâne destul de incertă. având în vedere măsurile de amploare 1 dorina clichici, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8337-6489 e-mail dorina.clichici2@gmail.com 2 cristina-georgiana zeldea, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9441-5968 e-mail cristina.zeldea@iem.ro https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8337-6489 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9441-5968 https://e.mail.ru/compose/?mailto=mailto%3acristina.zeldea@iem.ro 2 theoretical and scientifical journal de reeșalonare a ratelor creditelor, prin moratoriile la creditele bancare, dar și schemele de sprijin financiar inițiate de băncile centrale și guverne, regiunea cee se confruntă cu costuri ridicate ale riscurilor, care se manifestă în principal prin migrarea în timp a expunerii la riscul de credit. în acest context, se preconizează că ratele creditelor neperformante vor crește în viitorul apropiat. mai mult, trecerea pe scară largă către rate mai reduse ale dobânzilor va exercita presiuni asupra marjelor de creditare. cuvinte-cheie: criza de covid-19, sistemele bancare din cee, rentabilitatea activelor, rentabilitatea capitalului bancar, capitalizarea bancară, gradul de îndatorare кризис covid-19 серьезно затронул страны центральной и восточной европы (цве), в результате чего во время пандемии была заблокирована основная экономическая деятельность, что привело к сокращению внутреннего спроса и инвестиций. цель исследования проанализировать влияние пандемии на банковские системы в цве в свете наиболее актуальных показателей банковской стабильности. для достижения цели использовались как качественные, так и количественные методы исследования. результаты анализа показали, что пандемический кризис не повлиял на качество банковских активов, процент неработающих кредитов в большинстве стран сохранился на достаточно низком уровне. в то же время, благодаря крупным реформам, последовавшим за международным финансовым кризисом 2008 года, банки имеют достаточно высокий уровень капитализации и разумный уровень задолженности, что отражает высокую степень устойчивости банковских систем цве к шокам. однако крайне низкий уровень процентных ставок привел к ухудшению показателей банковских активов в цве. b то же время перспективы банковских систем в цве остаются довольно неопределенными. принимая во внимание масштабные меры по изменению графика выплат по кредитам посредством моратория на банковские ссуды, а также схемы финансовой поддержки, инициированные центральными банками и правительствами, регион цве сталкивается с высокими издержками по рискам, которые проявляются в основном в переносе кредитного риска в будущее. в этом контексте ожидается, что в ближайшем будущем показатели проблемных кредитов вырастут. более того, повсеместный переход к более низким процентным ставкам окажет давление на кредитную маржу. ключевые слова: кризис covid-19, банковские системы цве, рентабельность активов, рентабельность банковского капитала, капитализация банков, степень задолженности introduction the covid-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented economic and health crisis. despite the financial turmoil that took place in 2020, banks have been a significant source of resilience. due to major reforms that followed the international financial crisis of 2008, banks were much better capitalized and more liquid this time. according to giese and haldane (2020), banks were actually part of the solution to the crisis, rather than part of the problem. moreover, considerable fund injection from central banks, along with strong preshock bank capital, explain why banks were able to accommodate increased liquidity demands (li et al., 2020). however, given the close link between the economic situation and the banks’ health, the economic consequences of the covid-19 crisis will be felt in a short time by banking systems as well. the extent and impact of this erosion on the stability of banks is yet to be known, mostly because many of the granted loans have been deferred through moratoriums or restructured for a longer period of time. in addition, unprecedented fiscal and monetary support offered by governments and central banks has helped maintain the flow of credit to businesses and population, thus alleviating the economic and financial shock. however, experts believe that banks could face a substantial increase in non-performing loans (npl) when fiscal and monetary support programs will be abruptly withdrawn, but also due to an increased insolvency of the population and businesses (oecid, 2021). in addition to the adverse effects induced by the 3 economy and sociology covid-19 crisis, there are a number of important challenges that affect the traditional business model of banks, i. e. persistent low interest rates, changes in the regulatory framework, but also increased competition from shadow banks and new digital market participants (carletti et al., 2020). however, the impact of the current crisis on banking systems will be different from that of the international financial crisis, as the financial resilience of banks has significantly improved since then, with revised capital requirements for commercial banks and new shock-absorbing buffers (bis, 2017). since 2015, international banking regulations have improved the quality of the banking capital, by changing the definition of equity and increasing the requirements for the minimum level of the tier 1 and common equity tier 1 capital ratios. moreover, several novel countercyclical macroprudential tools have been introduced, i.e. the capital buffer, the countercyclical capital buffer and the buffer for systemically important institutions. in addition to these three buffers, eu member states have also applied the systemic risk capital buffer at their discretion. furthermore, in order to prevent the excessive accumulation of debt, which was one of the weaknesses of the pre-crisis financial system, a minimum level of leverage has been introduced (that must at least equal 3%). in addition, the new macroprudential framework has set minimum liquidity standards for credit institutions, through the liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding indicator. under these conditions, banks significantly increased their capital and liquidity reserves. to overcome the challenges posed by the pandemic crisis, banks will have to increase their loan-loss provisions that will affect bank capital. therefore, financial authorities need to consider additional measures to improve credit quality oversight and resolution and recovery regimes, in order to provide means to address the challenges of a potential deterioration in the quality of banking assets. literature review the covid-19 crisis has spurred financial research related to the impact of the pandemic event on bank performance and business models, but also to different scenarios regarding the resilience of banking systems in the post-covid-19 period. moreover, considering the unprecedented monetary and fiscal support in stabilising the economy and the financial system in 2020, many studies have approached the impact of this support on banks (demirguc-kunt et al., f.a.). found that liquidity support, borrower assistance programs and monetary easing lessened the negative impact from the pandemic crisis, but it varied across banks and countries. according to oecd scenarios (2021), extending the deadline for monetary and fiscal support measures would reduce the severity of the impact of the covid-19 crisis on the npl ratios, keeping them below the levels reached during the 2008 financial crisis in most countries. on the other hand, the premature withdrawal of this support would cause a substantial increase in npl, exceeding the levels recorded during the previous crisis in a number of economies. at the same time, the same study reveals that banks could face tier 1 equity cuts in both developed and emerging economies, despite broad monetary and fiscal support measures.(kasinger et al., 2021) emphasizes the importance of an early and realistic assessment of credit losses in the context of the covid-19 crisis, in order to mitigate the negative effects on european banks. according to the authors, with the cancellation of moratoriums and other support measures in the context of the crisis, european banks will face a wave of npl. the empirical analysis of kasinger et al. (2021), on a sample of 15 european countries, notes the existence of a sufficiently high level of aggregate bank capital to absorb the potential losses generated by npl, even in the possibility of an adverse scenario. however, the results of the study show a substantial heterogeneity between countries, both in terms of the potential amount of npl and the ratio between npl to bank capital. in this context, in order to avoid a potential banking crisis, regulators need to ensure that banks realistically assess current lending volumes, through effective asset quality review, stress tests and appropriate accounting rules. another study, which looked at the performance of us banks, suggests that the effect of the covid-19 crisis is less obvious from the analysis of bank balance sheets, considering the impact of easing regulatory requirements on credit classification and provisions creation (beck and keil, 2021). the authors identified an increase in the volume of loans meant to 4 theoretical and scientifical journal support the us economy, driven mainly by government support programs, as well as a tightening of credit conditions. as for banking systems in cee, according to a report by raiffeisen (2020), they will experience a significant deterioration in the quality of assets in 2021, generated by additional risks from retail loans and those granted to smes. in general, the non-performing loan ratio is expected to increase to 4-8% in central europe and to 7-10% in south-eastern europe according to this report. moreover, the significant presence of foreign banks in cee and their pro-cyclical credit behaviour (niţoi et al., 2021) could exacerbate the situation in cee. data sources and methods the article aims to analyse the impact of the covid-19 crisis on the stability of the cee banking system. 1 first, the authors evaluate the economic environment in cee, using three main macroeconomic indicators, i.e. gdp growth, budget balance and change in exports of goods and services. second, the paper investigates cee banking systems from the perspective of the most relevant indicators of banking stability, i.e. the non-performing loans ratio, return on assets, return on equity, tier 1 equity ratio, common equity tier 1 ratio, and the leverage ratio. in order to achieve the goal, both qualitative and quantitative research methods were used. the data for performing the analysis were extracted from two databases, i.e. the imf world economic outlook database, for the analysis of macroeconomic indicators, but also the european banking authority database, for the analysis of performance and banking stability indicators in cee countries. the macroeconomic environment in the context of the covid-19 crisis the banking systems in cee experienced a remarkable stability in the period 2017-2019, which was characterized by high levels of capitalization and profitability, determined mainly by the favourable macroeconomic environment in the region. the quality of bank assets in this group of states has significantly improved over these three years, as a result of the decrease in the non-performing loans rate, but also as a result of increases in the rate of return and adequacy of bank capital. the growth of lending activity, fuelled by the intensification of economic and investment activities, has generated high levels of bank profits in almost every country in the region (raiffeisen, 2020). however, this positive trend was disrupted by the covid-19 pandemic, which had major negative repercussions on the cee economies, blocking important economic sectors. to avoid an economic collapse, the governments and central banks of these states have taken a number of fiscal, monetary and regulatory measures, which have mitigated the negative effects of the pandemic crisis. despite these measures, the pandemic caused gdp fall offs in all cee countries, declines in domestic demand and investment, rises of budget deficits and significant declines in exports. the most severe gdp contractions in 2020 were recorded in croatia (-9%), the czech republic (-5.6%), slovenia (-5.5%), the slovak republic (-5.2%) and hungary (-4.9%) (imf, 2021). at the same time, the economies of romania, bulgaria and latvia fell by an average rate of only -3.7% in 2020. the most resilient states in the face of the crisis caused by the pandemic were estonia, poland and lithuania, which experienced an economic decrease of -2.9%, -2.7% and -0.8%, respectively, in 2020 compared to the previous year (figure 1). 1 according to the oecd classification, the group of central and eastern european states includes: albania, bulgaria, croatia, the czech republic, hungary, poland, romania, slovakia, slovenia, estonia, latvia and lithuania. as albania is not a member state of the european union it was excluded from the research sample. 5 economy and sociology figure 1. gdp growth rate in cee countries, 2017-2020 (%) source: authors, based on imf (2021a) in this context, fiscal measures have become widespread in all cee countries in 2020. these have taken the form of temporary tax exemptions for the most affected categories of people and businesses, the reduction of value added tax on certain products and services affected by pandemic, increases in unemployment benefits and other social benefits, granting subsidies to companies in the sectors affected by the pandemic, increased spending in the health and public administration sector, etc. (imf, 2021). as a result, budget deficits have risen significantly in all cee countries, in most cases exceeding the levels reached during the global financial crisis. the most severe fiscal imbalances were registered in romania, hungary, slovenia, poland and lithuania, all exceeding the -8% of gdp in 2020 (figure 2). croatia and slovakia reached -7.8% and -7.3%, respectively, while the rest of the sample countries experienced fiscal deficits below -6%. bulgaria performed best in this regard, with a budget deficit of only -3%. figure 2. budget balance in cee countries, 2017-2020 (% of gdp) source: authors, based on imf (2021a) moreover, in the context of the disruption of global value chains and the decline in global external demand in 2020, exports of goods and services have plummeted in cee countries (figure 3). -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2018 2019 2020 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 2018 2019 2020 6 theoretical and scientifical journal figure 3. change in exports of goods and services of cee countries, during 2017-2020 (in %) source: authors, based on imf (2021a) all the states in the sample, without exception, experienced a major decrease in the volume of goods and services exported. the most affected by the pandemic were croatia and hungary, which recorded decreases of -26.8% and -14.6%, respectively, in 2020 compared to the previous year. romania, bulgaria, slovenia and slovakia experienced contractions between -9% and -7%, while latvia, lithuania and poland suffered less compared to other states, reaching rates below -3% compared to 2019. cee banking systems during the pandemic event following the severe deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, cee banks have faced a declining demand for loans for the first time in five years, especially in investment lending (eib, 2020). in the light of this development, the cee central banks have initiated monetary policy rate cuts, significant liquidity injections, but also regulatory measures, to mitigate the economic and financial shock. for example, the czech national bank reduced the base rate from 2.25% in february 2020 to only 0.25% in december 2020, poland facilitated lending by lowering the base rate from 1,5% in february 2020 to 0.1% at the end of the year, while romania experienced a decrease in the monetary policy rate from 2.5% to 1.5% in the same period. moreover, central banks injected unprecedented volumes of liquidity through repo operations and purchased government bonds on the secondary market, thus expanding their assets several times. the largest increase in assets in the pandemic year was registered by the national bank of hungary, with 64% compared to the previous year, followed by the national bank of poland, with 40%, and the national bank of romania, with 20% (clichici et al., 2020). in addition, central banks have implemented new instruments of unlimited lending to banks, eased minimum reserves requirements, relaxed the prudential requirements for mortgages, introduced the moratorium on loans in pandemic conditions, etc. in addition, to reduce the growing exposure to credit risk caused by the increasing default of debtors, and to avoid rising non-performing loan ratios, cee banking systems have tightened lending standards in 2020 for both companies and households (european investment bank, 2020). these actions have contributed to maintaining a rather low level of non-performing loan ratio, similar to that of 2019 in most countries. the non-performing loans ratio increased moderately only in the case of the czech republic, from 1.3% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020, and in the case of poland, from 4.8% in 2019 to 5.1% in 2020. generally, we notice an improvement tendency of this indicator in most cee banking systems, starting with december 2018 (figure 4). -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2018 2019 2020 7 economy and sociology figure 4. non-performing loans ratio in cee countries, 2018-2020 (%) source: authors, based on eba (2021) despite the maintenance of credit risk at a relatively similar level to that of the pre-pandemic period, and the increase in domestic credit to the private sector, most banking systems in cee have experienced a deterioration in asset performance (figure 5). this evolution was determined by the extremely low level of interest rates in the pandemic, which further decreased bank revenues collected from the lending activity. figure 5. return on assets of the banking systems in cee countries, 2018-2020 (%) source: authors, based on eba (2021) also, the return on equity decreased in all states during the pandemic, with the exception of the slovenian banking system, which saw an increase in this indicator from 10.6% in 2019 to 16.6% in 2020 (figure 6). 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 8,0% 9,0% dec.18 dec.19 dec.20 -0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% dec.18 dec.19 dec.20 8 theoretical and scientifical journal figure 6. return on equity of the banking systems in cee countries, 2018-2020 (%) source: authors, based on eba (2021) we will further analyse the tier 1 equity ratio, the common equity tier (cet1) ratio and the leverage ratio in the eu member states. the tier 1 equity ratio1 has increased in most cee banking systems. this indicator is above the minimum level set by the new basel iii regulatory framework (6%), reflecting a high level of shock resilience of cee banking systems. moreover, most states have values above 20%, except for hungary, poland, slovenia and slovakia (figure 7). figure 7. tier 1 equity ratio of the banking systems in cee countries, 2018-2020 (%) source: authors, based on eba (2021) 1 the tier 1 ratio is the share of the institution's basic tier 1 own funds and additional tier 1 capital in riskweighted assets (source: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/ legal-content / ro / txt / pdf /? uri = celex: 32013r0575 & from = en). -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% dec.18 dec.19 dec.20 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% dec.18 dec.19 dec.20 9 economy and sociology apart from poland, the cet11 ratio is above the minimum requirements set by the basel iii framework (at least 4.5% since 2014). the most capitalized banking systems are found in slovakia (16.6%), romania (11.4%) and lithuania (11.2%) (figure 8). figure 8. common equity tier 1 ratio in cee countries, 2018-2020 (%) source: authors, based on eba (2021) currently, leverage ratio of banking systems in the cee countries, measured by the banks’ equity to assets ratio, varies between 12.5% in croatia and 6.8% in the czech republic. in all cee states the minimum leverage ratio requirement of 3% is met (figure 9). figure 9. leverage ratio of the banking systems in cee countries, 2018-2020 (%) source: authors, based on eba (2021) the equity to assets ratio has increased mainly due to the decrease of total assets and the consolidation of the capital base. these data suggest the existence of a sufficiently high level of aggregate bank capital to absorb potential losses from non-performing loans in cee countries. conclusions cee banking systems have been clearly affected by the pandemic event in 2020. despite maintaining credit risk at an approximately similar level to that of the pre-pandemic period, cee banking systems experienced a deterioration in profitability indicators. this evolution was determined by the extremely low level of interest rates in the pandemic, which further decreased bank 1 the common equity tier 1 ratio (cet1) is the share of cet1 equity in risk-weighted assets (source: http://eurlex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/txt/pdf/?uri=celex:32013r0575&from=en). -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% dec.18 dec.19 dec.20 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% dec.18 dec.19 dec.20 10 theoretical and scientifical journal revenues collected from the lending activity. at the same time, banks have a sufficiently high level of capitalization and a reasonable level of indebtedness, reflecting a high degree of cee banking system shock resilience. however, considering the large-scale measures to reschedule credit rates, through moratoriums on bank loans, but also the financial support schemes initiated by central banks and governments, the cee region is facing high risk costs, which manifest mainly through the migration over time of credit risk exposure. on the one hand, the support policies offered by states have played a crucial role in stabilizing the quality of banks' assets, on the other hand, a premature withdrawal of monetary and fiscal support could cause a sharp rise in default rates in the coming period. based on these arguments, non-performing loan ratios are expected to increase in the coming months. moreover, the post-covid environment has revealed a widespread shift to lower interest rates, which will exert pressure on lending margins. given the pressure on banks’ revenues, smaller banking institutions will face challenges related to low levels of profitability and capital, which requires for the initiation of consolidation actions within the cee banking sector in the coming years. acknowledgement: this work was supported by a grant of the romanian ministry of education and research, cncs uefiscdi, project number pn-iii-p1-1.1-te-2019-0415, within the pncdi iii. references: 1. bis. (2017). basel iii: international regulatory framework for banks. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3.htm 2. carletti, e., claessens, s., fatas, a., & vives, x. (2020). the bank business model in the postcovid-19 world. https://voxeu.org/system/files/epublication/the_future_of_banking_2.pdf 3. demirguc-kunt, a., pedraza, a., & ruiz-ortega, c. (f.a.). banking sector performance during the covid-19 crisis. 55. 4. european investment bank. (2020). cesee bank lending survey: autumn 2020. publications office. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2867/465576 5. imf. (2021). world economic outlook, april 2021: managing divergent recoveries. imf. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april2021 6. kasinger, j., krahnen, j. p., ongena, s., pelizon, l., schmeling, m., & wahrenburg, m. (2021, aprilie 1). pregătirea pentru un val de împrumuturi neperformante: perspective empirice și lecții importante. voxeu.org. https://voxeu.org/article/preparing-wave-non-performing-loans 7. li, l., strahan, p. e., & zhang, s. (2020). banks as lenders of first resort: evidence from the covid-19 crisis. the review of corporate finance studies, 9(3), 472–500. https://doi.org/10.1093/rcfs/cfaa009 8. niţoi, m., clichici, d., & moagăr-poladian, s. (2021). foreign banks in central and eastern europe: the good, the bad and the ugly. prague economic papers, 30(5), 596–612. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.782 9. oecid. (2021). the covid-19 crisis and banking system resilience: simulation of losses on non-performing loans and policy implications”, 52. 10. raiffeisen. (2020). raiffeisen research cee banking report 2020: criză și modul de recuperare în același timp. https://www.rbinternational.com/en/media/2020/raiffeisenresearch-cee-banking-report-2020-crisis-and-recovery-mode-at-the-same-time.html received 28 september 2021 accepted 17 november 2021 how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 66 no. 2 / 2019 the psychological contract in a globalized society: new contractual and relational forms stefano amodio1, phd in philosophy, professor of work psychology, director of education2, istituto teseo, italy doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.2-06 jel classification: m12, m15, m54 udc: 159.9:331 abstract today, more and more attention is paid to the functioning of organizations, it is placed not only on the work itself, but on the actors and on those subjective dimensions of the worker. in this socialworking context the psychological techniques and processes aimed at employment in the new scenario of the globalized society have not yet been studied in all aspects, although its diffusion and importance for the global economy is evident. also the psychological contract, widely discussed, is an argument with insufficient gaps in scientific research, in particular as regards empirical analysis and theoretical interpretative models. economic literature has never paid much attention to psychological aspects; on the other hand, psychosocial literature has often omitted use as a specific research topic, focusing on traditional placement and outplacement processes. some scholars, especially from the anglo-american school, have emphasized the need to direct research towards an interpretative analysis of the psychological contract based on empirical data, also considering the results of managerial and organizational literature. this article focuses on the process of acquiring and transmitting interpersonal dynamics that characterize the psychological contract with the consequent phases of insertion into the working world, describing its characteristics and its specific dynamics. it also provides an interpretation of these processes, adopting a theoretical model derived from the social psychology of interpersonal relationships. in the end, the article provides some tips to manage the processes of the psychological contract with less stress, psychologically speaking and less organizational uncertainties, mainly addressing the new generations. the purpose of this contribution is to analyze from a psycho-social point of view, the evolution of psychological relationships between employers and workers, within the new scenario of the globalized society, opening new perspectives of investigation and study related to the study of human factors and organizational well-being, work-trust relationships and quality of working preformances. keywords: labor market analysis, the psychological contract, psychology of work, organizational behavior, organizational psychology, human resources. astăzi, o atenție tot mai mare se acordă funcționării organizațiilor, și nu numai lucrului însăși, ci și actorilor, precum și dimensiunilor subiective ale lucrătorului. în acest context social de lucru, tehnicile și procesele psihologice, care vizează ocuparea forței de muncă în noul scenariu al societății globalizate, 1 © stefano amodio, presidenza@istitutoteseo.it, direttore@istitutoteseo.it 2 stefano amodio, president and director of teaching of the teseo institute, phd in general psychology, teaches occupational psychology at the university of cassino and southern lazio, shareholder and co -founder of the armando curcio institute in rome. trainer in the field of human resources and labor organization. he deals with professional training, work psychology, motivation, work well-being, communication mediations, creativity and emotions. he is a member of the technical scientific committee of the storytelling observatory of the university of pavia. curator and author of several volumes including: homo laborans. tools for analysis and promotion of working well-being (teseo editore, 2010) and johann amos comenius. comenian thought and universal education in the analysis of didactica magna (teseo editore, 2012), like leaves in the wind. work flexibility and atypical scenarios (teseo editore, 2011), the latter also translated into romanian by editura romania de maine, a university publisher of the spiru haret university in bucharest. mailto:presidenza@istitutoteseo.it mailto:direttore@istitutoteseo.it economy and sociology 67 no. 2 / 2019 nu au fost încă studiate în toate aspectele, deși difuzarea și importanța pentru economia globală sunt evidente. de asemenea, contractul psihologic, discutat pe scară largă, este un argument cu lacune insuficiente în cercetarea științifică, în particular, în ceea ce privește analiza empirică și modelele interpretative teoretice. literatura economică nu a acordat multă atenție aspectelor psihologice; pe de altă parte, literatura psihosocială a omis adesea utilizarea ca subiect de cercetare specific, concentrându-se asupra proceselor tradiționale de plasare și excluziune pe piața muncii. unii cercetători, în special din școala anglo-americană, au subliniat necesitatea direcționării cercetării către o analiză interpretativă a contractului psihologic bazat pe date empirice, luând în considerare și rezultatele literaturii manageriale și organizaționale. acest articol se concentrează asupra procesului de dobândire și transmitere a dinamicii interpersonale care caracterizează contractul psihologic cu fazele ulterioare de inserție în lumea muncii, descriind caracteristicile și dinamica sa specifică. de asemenea, oferă o interpretare a acestor procese, adoptând un model teoretic derivat din psihologia socială a relațiilor interpersonale. în cele din urmă, articolul oferă câteva sfaturi pentru a gestiona procesele contractului psihologic cu mai puțin stres, din punct de vedere psihologic, și cu mai puține incertitudini organizaționale, adresându-se, în principal, noilor generații. scopul acestei lucrări este de a analiza din punctul de vedere psiho-social, evoluția relațiilor psihologice între angajatori și lucrători, în noul scenariu al societății globalizate, deschizând noi perspective de investigare a factorului uman și bunăstării organizaționale, relațiilor de încredere în muncă și calității performanțelor de lucru. cuvinte-cheie: analiza pieței muncii, contract psihologic, psihologia muncii, comportament organizațional, psihologia organizațională, resurse umane. сегодня все большее внимание уделяется функционированию организаций, не только самой работе, но и акторам, а также субъективным характеристикам работника. в этом социальном контексте работы психологические методы и процессы, нацеленные на занятость в новом сценарии глобализованного общества, еще не изучены во всех аспектах, хотя их распространение и значение для мировой экономики очевидны. также широко обсуждается психологический контракт, являющийся аргументом с достаточными пробелами в научных исследованиях, особенно в том, что касается эмпирического анализа и теоретических моделей интерпретации. экономическая литература никогда не уделяла много внимания психологическим аспектам; с другой стороны, психосоциальная литература часто исключала использование в качестве конкретной темы исследования, уделяя особое внимание традиционным процессам включения и исключения на рынке труда. некоторые ученые, особенно из англо-американской школы, подчеркивали необходимость направить исследования на интерпретационный анализ психологического контракта на основе эмпирических данных, а также с учетом результатов управленческой и организационной литературы. эта статья посвящена процессу приобретения и передачи межличностной динамики, которая характеризует психологический контракт с последующими фазами вхождения в рабочий мир, описывая его характеристики и его специфическую динамику. это также обеспечивает интерпретацию этих процессов, принимая теоретическую модель, основанную на социальной психологии межличностных отношений. в заключении статьи приводятся некоторые советы по управлению процессами психологического контракта с меньшим стрессом и с меньшей организационной неопределенностью, в основном адресованные новым поколениям. цель данной работы проанализировать с психосоциальной точки зрения эволюцию психологических отношений между работодателями и работниками в рамках нового сценария глобализованного общества, открывая новые перспективы для исследования человеческого фактора, организационного благополучия, отношений доверия и качества работы. ключевые слова: анализ рынка труда, психологический контракт, психология труда, организационное поведение, организационная психология, человеческие ресурсы. theoretical and scientifical journal 68 no. 2 / 2019 introduction 1.1 forms and contents of the psychological work contract according to anderson, a psychological contract begins when an employee understands that the organization is obliged to reciprocate somehow what it receives from him. people enter an organization with values, needs and believes which they think will be deeply taken into consideration, and that their prosperity will be protected [1, andersson, l.m., 1996]. the central point of a psychological contract concerns the exchange of promises and duties whose contents are referred to psychological aspects not put to evidence [2, makin, p. et al., 1996]. these perceptions and expectations are part of the employment psychological contract, which coexists together with the contract formally and legally documented. a psychological contract is oriented to future and it is dynamic and continuously revised, as it is based on expectations evolving during the business collaboration that the person begins with the organization [3, muchinsky, p.m., 2003]. besides, this contract defines what the person expects from the organization in order to obtain and keep his psychological wealth. the worker believes that the organization has the potential to get this wealth. the terms of this ‘contribution’ are both in the formal employment contract and in the psychological one. if one of the two is broken, the person feels to be subjected to unfair treatment [4, stalker, k., 2000]. nowadays there is no agreement about what a psychological contract is concerned, but there is an agreement about some basic relational elements, as the career development, the participation to the organization, the certainty of the work [5, anderson, n., schalk, r., 1998]. according to anderson and schalk, one of the main functions of the psychological contract is to reduce employee’s insecurity [5, anderson, n., schalk, r., 1998]. a rousseau’s comparative study where the contents of the psychological contract and the employers’ were compared, revealed that while the employees were expecting advancements, workplace safety, development, wages increase, etc., they were on the contrary asked to be loyal, available to make overtime and extra role duties, a minimum commitment to be in the firm, and the availability to accept transfers [6, rousseau, d.m. 1990]. according to other researchers working about the psychological contracts, today the work safety is no more connected to loyalty. so, high performances do not assure anymore a work safety [7, csoka, l.s., 1995]. for the organizations, loyalty and work involvement have a high value: on the contrary, for the workers the priority is the work certainty. the reciprocity principle constitutes a fundamental factor to understand the work connection by the worker. of course, the concept of contract recalls the idea that two parts are involved, and that the reciprocity results by the comprehension and the appreciation of its duties. however, as psychological contracts exist only in the minds of people, a doubt starts about how this mutuality can be carried out between the two parts. in a normal legal contract, every part has his own perception about the contract duties, and the sharing of these perceptions gives mutuality to the parts. before the signature of the contracts, which gives a legal value to them, ambiguities or misunderstandings are clarified and solved by the two parts. on the contrary, the psychological contracts are different: actually, they are in the mind of the person, and are not formally negotiated. only the employee gives substance to this mutuality adopting two points of view: a) what he is expecting from the organization; b) what he believes the organization expects from him [8, turnley, w.h., bolino, m.c. et al., 2003]. these two perspectives influence his behavior and, not directly, how the organization works. according to denise m. rousseau, the mutuality is not an essential condition to make the psychological contract exist. she suggests that believing in the reciprocity the contract could exist, but not the reciprocity as such [9, rousseau, d.m., mclean parks, j., 1992]. we can discuss if the organization can have an interest in being an active part in this contract or, more simply, if it can anticipate it. in this case, the satisfaction of the employee’s expectations can casually occur at the same time with the obligations of a psychological contract. anyway all this does not prevent the organization from understanding which the expectations about the duties are, and from taking sides by accepting these duties, in order to keep productive and advantageous relationships with the employees [9, rousseau, d.m., mclean parks, j., 1992]. new work and organizational dynamics have caused a transition from the so called relational contracts to economy and sociology 69 no. 2 / 2019 the transactional ones [10, csoka, l.s., 1995]. the first ones, in which the relationship between employer and employee is primary, are based on a common interest and are connected to the social exchange, implying an exchange of social and emotional resources [11, millward, l.j., brewerton, p.m., 2000]. they look like a sort of a traditional agreement between employer and employees, in which all the parts recognize the interests of the counter-part [12, millward, l.j., brewerton, p.m., 2000]. or they can be considered as employment relationships which adopt policies of a high involvement, reflecting a reciprocal interest aimed at reaching positive results [13, tsui, a.s., pearce, j.l. et al., 1997]. according to kissler, the relational contracts presume a reciprocal relationship of dependency between employees and employers and can show a long term involvement [14, kissler, g.d., 1994]. on the contrary, the transactional contracts tend to be static, having a fixed content based on a subjective interest; tend to identify clear responsibilities and to consider short period relationships [15, cavanaugh, m.a., noe, r.a., 1999]. they can be compared to employment relationships focused on the work, in which the result of the transaction is more important of the maintenance of the relationship, and are bound to the exchange of economical resources that constitute the primary incentive [16, millward, l.j., brewerton, p.m., 2000]. young workers are more inclined to accept transactional psychological contracts then the oldest ones, as they accept a greater work insecurity, when being able to control their career [17, hall, d.t., 1996]. the diffusion of the transactional contracts, above all among young generations, is considered as an orientation towards a proteiform career, in which the employee has a greater control and responsibility of his own destiny [17, hall, d.t., 1996]. of course, these aspects have an influence on the content of the psychological contract. a research that studied the passage from relational contracts to transactional contracts through the study of the perceptions of three family generations, showed that over the years, perceptions of trust, help and loyalty have diminished during the last fifty years. this means a wearing away of the relational elements of the psychological contract [18, de meuse, k.p. et al., 2001]: indeed, each contract has both relational and transactional elements, so that we have a reciprocal influence. for this reason a relational-transactional codification has been proposed, meant as a psychological-based continuum, where the pure forms of each contract are positioned at each extremity [19, rousseau, d.m. et al., 1992]. despite the relational-transactional codification is the main one, we may also have other forms of contract. some researchers have proposed a codification that takes into account the dimensions of degree and balance of the obligations, identifying six types of contract (instrumental, weak, loyal, strong, unbound, connected to an investment), in which each type shows different levels of emotional bond and work possibilities [20, janssens, m., et.al., 2003]. the researchers have then produced a six dimensioned model with these characteristics: not tangible-tangible; near-distant; stable-flexible; short period-long period; fair-unfair; single-collective [21, sels, l. et al., 2004]. watson introduced the idea of ideological contract, saying that a personal position, liberal or collective, influences the judgment about the work relationship, and also the kind of a psychological contract [22, watson, g.w., 1997]. other researchers say that the ideological position does not define a particular and separated kind of contract, but only an internal connotation of the contract itself, that is the possible engagement of a person who tries to pursue a principle or a cause of value. this task appears as the contribution that the organization has in order to pursue a given ideological target [23, thompson, j.a., bunderson, j.s., 2003]. the engagement due to the cause can increase loyalty, satisfaction and participation to the work organization. these factors confirm a relational dimension of the psychological contract. adopting the perspective of the social exchange, shore and barksdale propose a codification based on a reciprocal balancing of the obligations of the employee and of the employer’s as a form of a relationship stronger and similar to a positive psychological relational contract [24, shore, l.m., barksdale, k., 1998]. between the two parts, there can be different needs in this exchange. for example, an individual could have an opposition to invest in a high specialized professionalism that, in time, could prevent him to count on an external position, a chance today possible because of the increasing trend of the transnational contracts, which ask the employees to run more risks in their job. in order to get an exchange able to satisfy the two theoretical and scientifical journal 70 no. 2 / 2019 parts, also considering the different interests, the contract should also include the possibility to get tasks with more responsibilities and remuneration connected to the progress of their career. a second problematic point could be the resistance of the firm to invest its technical capital of knowledge in favor of a given worker. of course, the firm always works hoping to get as soon as possible an important competitive advantage and to have the guarantee to go on keeping the services of the employee, at least until the return of the investment. in that case, the employer expects that the employee remains in the firm the sufficient time for this return, and that leaving the enterprise, he does not give the knowledge of the firm to his rivals. in turn, the employee will be available to invest loyally in the firm his career, if he receives the promise to be employed as a long-standing and strategic worker. in this case, a possible breach of the contract will be clear only after the two parts have made their investments in the relationship. in different situations, between the two parts could not be so long a time expectations, and both the single workers and the organization can friendly separate. for example, thank to their kind of employment, the managers tend to commit to long term contracts, in which is very important to keep the employment relationship (a non convertible to cash exchange), while fixed terms workers and consultants prefer transnational contracts. actually, we see that the type of work relationship influences the content of the relational contract [25, mclean parks, j., kidder, d.l., 1990]. 1.2 the influence of the new types of work on the psychological contract a new interest of the researchers about the psychological contract is in great part fed by recent changes in which the job market has been involved during the last ten years, influencing in a steady way the lives of the workers and the organizations’. on the whole, these changes show a marked orientation to a more flexible market, made of permanent employees, contractors and fixed-term workers. the first ones are considered the core and the intellective force of the firm; the second ones as a sort of stable of contractors, and the last ones as just-in-time workers [26, cooper, c.l., 1999]. the new organization of the market of work implies a greater individual responsibility concerning the self-development, the career management and more autonomy concerning legal protection [27, cavanaugh, m.a., noe, r.a., 1999]. with reference to the change of organization, concerning a repositioning from the production of goods to the production of services, also the corresponding remuneration is now mainly connected to the market value and less to the position or seniority of the worker. from an individual standpoint, all these changes have produced many consequences when compared with the traditional employment. according to guest, the main consequences are 1) a reduction of the number of individuals employed; 2) an increase of the fragmentation and flexibility of the workers in the firms; 3) the urgency and pervasiveness of the changes; 4) an increasing interest for a balance between life and work; 5) the decrease of the number of workers who are represented by the institutional systems of negotiation; 6) a decline of the collective orientation in favor of individualistic solutions [28, guest, d.e., 2004]. an interesting bridges’ analysis shows the meaning of these changes in a historical perspective where, starting from the xvii century and later with the industrial revolution, the work became a commitment of tasks, transforming itself in the xix century into a job. in the xx century these jobs became careers, and nowadays another change is occurring, that is there is a comeback to jobs and tasks considered as a commitment of piece works [29, bridges, w., 1994]. this new relationship is backed also by changes concerning the management of the human resources, where, as an indicator of the attachment, the occupational involvement has substituted the organizational one, and the traditional bounds between property and labor force are becoming less definite [30, guest, d.e., conway, n., 1999]. the work relationship goes on evolving, and both the employees and the employers are searching for the basis of a new psychological contract that could be included and accepted, and that could add value to both the parts, instead of being imposed only by the organization, so running the risk of a further loss of the personal power by the worker [31, rousseau, d.m., 1996]. looking at the future, it is no more possible to think, if not in rare cases, of a permanent contract and of the idea of one only working career as a main model. the companies are today oriented to be reorganized, joined, rationalized, delocalized and renewed thanks to any form of technological modernization, contributing to make the work more and more multifaceted. so, also the psychological economy and sociology 71 no. 2 / 2019 contract between an employee and an employer is destined to be redefined. researchers show that these changes are influencing negatively the motivation and the satisfaction of the workers, and produce an increase of the stress due to the continuous menaces to be dismissed. this last aspect has an important influence about how a worker behaves, included his trust in the organization [32, hendry, c., jenkins, r., 1997]. the staff reshaping is considered by the workers a strong violation of the psychological contract [33, muchinsky, p.m., 2003]. these negative situation has discouraging consequences not only on the individuals interested by this phenomenon, but also on the rest of the workers. what now the enterprises are communicating to the workers is that they will employ people only until when their capacities and talents are necessary and give an added value to the enterprise. the managers have destroyed the previous psychological contract, but they have not specified terms and conditions of the new one. in this way, they have begun a revolution concerning the manifestation of a new work relationship. the traditional relationship, based on a sharing of values, tasks, loyalty, engagement and vision, has now disappeared. the social contract between employee and employer, where the enterprises could ensure an employment and address the careers of loyal troops has gone to an end forever [34, herriot, p., pemberton, c., 1995]. the change of the focus of the psychological contract depends on some measure by the level of the work: it will be less evident for people working with a permanent contract, as the managers, but not for temporary or definite contracts [35, handy, c., 1989]. so, three different forms of psychological contracts have been proposed, which show specific differences in the nature of this form of contract: a life-style contract for part-time and interim workers; an autonomy contract for contract workers; a development contract for permanent workers [36, herriot, p., pemberton, c., 1995]. also voluntary workers show a new dimension of the work relationship and of the equivalent psychological contract. even if not paid, they also form a psychological contract with their organizations, but their expectations are not so definite as the ones of remunerated workers [37, farmer, s.m., fedor, d.b., 1999]. guest and conway say that is possible to specify a change in the ‘promises’ that the organizations make to their employees. they are referred more to the conscientiousness and the involvement in the work, but less to the stimulating aspects of work and career [38, guest, d.e., conway, n., 2001]. james and scott specify the same: involvement is better than passivity, powering rather than benefits, adaptation to values but not compliance, development of a general competence but not specialization, competence relocation but not precise functions [39, jaffe, d. t., scott, c.d., 1997]. they also show a passage from the management to the leadership/coaching, stressing the point on the team inter-functional work, which is so preferred to the functional autonomy [39, jaffe, d. t., scott, c.d., 1997]. the flatting of the organizations also implies a criticism of the institutional career paths, which nowadays are become protean and with no precise bounds [39, jaffe, d. t., scott, c.d., 1997]. in the present working contest, the psychological contract has two critical functions: 1) it helps the employers to foresee the contributions given by the employees; 2) it helps the employees to understand which rewards or recognitions they can expect as a result of their contributions. besides, it forms a useful system to describe how a person can interpret the work relationship in a given moment, giving information how that relationship can be managed, above all in this time, when the work relationships more and more indicate the independence of an individual and not his codependence [40, guest, d.e., conway, n., 2001]. a critical environmental factor in the negotiation of the new work relationship and the new psychological contract is the trust. violations of the psychological contract erase this basic element, causing rage and increasing the level of control. in a place where cynicism is prevailing, trust will be totally absent, and even strengthening when there have been many violations of the psychological contract [41, andersson, l.m., 1996]. andersson says that cynicism is often common in a job site as the result of changes of the organization as internal rationalizations and reorganizations [41, andersson, l.m., 1996]. in the organizations where the decisions concerning the employees are taken unilaterally and with no dialogue, the elimination of the cynicism, the restoration of the trust theoretical and scientifical journal 72 no. 2 / 2019 and the reactivation of the psychological contracts can be a very difficult target [42, johnson, j.l., o'leary-kelly, a.m., 2003]. when the individuals feel to be not considered value members of the organization, but only means to get the success of the enterprise, discontent and a motivation decrease are possible. anyway, violations of the psychological contract very often have to do with transactional aspects (formation, benefits, promotions) more than simple relational needs [43, arnold, j., 1996]. anyway, the perception of an imbalance in the reciprocity of the contributions, constitutes a cause of conflicts for the psychological contract. 1.3 violations of the psychological contract the break or violation of the psychological contract has consequences both on the single behavior and on the organizational results. the precondition is that satisfying a psychological contract produces personal positive behaviors, linked to as many positive results for the organization too. so, the organization would have a strong interest to give value to the potential content of the psychological contracts of the employees, both to know and manage the expectations typical of these contracts. what an individual considers a break or interruption could be considered by someone else in the same condition as a violation of the contract. the first is less serious, and implies a cognitive evaluation of the event, while the second is more serious, and produces behaviors and emotional answers that go over the mere cognitive evaluation. so, the two individuals will have different behaviors when facing the same event, what underlines the idiosyncratic nature of the psychological contract [44, freese, c., schalk, r., 1996]. for istance, for an individual a missed promotion in a given time of his life could be considered not actually harmful for the work relationship, because it could be given in a next future, so the individual does not undertake particular actions against that decision. in other cases, another individual, in the same situation, could think to have received a real bad violation of the psychological contract. all this could induce him to revenge himself of the organization and its interests. it is very frequent that facts which are first considered only interruptions of the psychological contract, are hereafter considered, in a different contest, as bad violations. the understanding of the contents of the contract, and its relationship towards other organizational structures, must be considered fundamental to manage any violation [45, robinson, s.l., morrison, e.w., 2000]. guest proposed a categorization of the results of the satisfaction and the missed gratification of the psychological contract, making a difference between aptitudinal consequences (including reliability, work satisfaction, balance life/work, work safety, motivation, stress) and behavior consequences (including an intention to remain or leaving, work performance, behavior of organization citizenship) [46, guest, d.e., 2004]. employer’s violations of the psychological contract will cause a strong reduction of the employee’s duties which they feel to fulfill [47, robinson, s.l., 1994]. we can here speak of a feeling of resentment, when describing what they feel after having born an injustice following the results of an individual which has not found a coincidence with a proper cognition. the last one is an implicit contract including what a person can expect to receive as a consequence of his behavior of his performance [48, organ, d.w., 1990]. wearing away or denying an expected benefit to which an individual thinks to have a right, to brings to the perception of a violation or breaking of the psychological contract, mining the individual’s wealth feeling. from a behavioral point of view all this will produce different solutions: a break of the relationship or actions which have as their target a compensation of the violation, or the silence, which always means a form of loyalty and the will to continue the relationship, or destructive behaviors [49, rousseau, d.m., 1995]. the perception of a break or of a violation of the contract, depends on the interpretation of the importance of the event, but it is also influenced by specific differences as affectivity, a sense of equity and conscientiousness [50, turnley, w.h., feldman, d.c., 1999]. at the beginning, the individual will judge the event in order to understand if the organization has refused the obligation or if there is an incongruence in his expectations. the evaluation of the importance of an event can increase his monitoring of the tangible results of the contract. if the importance of the promises not recognized is part of what the individual is ready to accept, he will perceive a break of the contract; but if the break goes on any reasonable negative expectation, it will be prevalent a feeling of violation, and this will economy and sociology 73 no. 2 / 2019 mean that the individual will behave as follows: he could leave the organization, what he could actually do; he could complain in order to get a public recognition of the violation; he could also decide, considering more details, that the new situation is not a menace for him, remaining loyal and continuing his relationship, but at the same time reducing his involvement. the last probability could be an effort to know the details of the violation, in order to revenge of the organization, and beginning to act in a harmful way [51, morrison, e.w., robinson, s.l., 1997]. despite all studies have analyzed till today cases of not recognition of the psychological contract, some researchers have shown a situation in which the expectations have been gratified in an exceeding way, also showing that in such cases many problems could arise. even a hyper-gratification of the psychological contract can be perceived by the individuals as a break or a violation of the contract. for istance, while a given autonomy in the work can be considered one of the expectations of the contract, too much autonomy could be harmful, and the individual, feeling himself abandoned, could have a bad stress able to increase the perception that the contract is being broken [52, turnley, w.h., feldman, d.c., 1999]. of course, an under gratification must usually be considered worse than a hyper-gratification. a further reaction to the break or violation of the psychological contract is the silence of the employees. their inactivity and a missed manifestation of reactions must not be considered an implicit agreement of the situation, and in this case the loyalty towards the organization will be spoiled [53, pinder, c.c., harlos, k.p., 2001]. a proactive management of the psychological contract is to be considered important in such a situation. making mistakes in the management of the violations of the contract, both for its content and the process, can cause many negative consequences for the organization, jeopardizing the fulfillment of the targets caused by a refusal of their engagement and dedication to work, the postponing of the commitments, the slowing of the work, anxiety and discord [54, brooks, i., harfield, t., 2000]. 1.4 results of the dismissal on the psychological contract dismissals and severe reductions of employees in an organization usually are considered causes of many organization problems. one of the results coming out from the studies on this sector, is the reaction of the workers who remain in the organization. this phenomenon, also known as survivor’s syndrome, is considered an important factor regarding the failure of the enterprise targets after the downsizing of the employees [55, appelbaum, s.h., 1999]. negative reactions can imply rage, depression, fear, guilt, refusal of risk, distrust, vulnerability, impotence, loss of motivation [56, nixon, r.d., hitt, m.a. et al., 2004]. other phenomena can be an opposition to changes, unwillingness to sharing information and team work, besides further emotional reactions that rise the negativity of the employees, influencing negatively the moral sense of the person, in whom takes place the idea that the dismissals are a betrayal [57, stavrou, e. et al., 2007]. medical studies show an increasing of endorsed ills and a risk of death for the workers who remain in the firm after a staff reduction [58, vahtera, j. et al.,1997]. anyway, the negative effects are strongly connected to a perception of fracture and violation of the psychological contract towards the workers on the whole. a feeling of distrust against managers and bosses rapidly spreads, as they are considered guilty for having made nothing to ‘save’ their colleagues. according to some researchers, this should be a defense mechanism, through an external transfer of the responsibility for what has happened, and aimed to face their own guilt feeling as survivors [59, manson, b.j., 2000]. so, in order to minimize such phenomena, it is fundamental the accuracy by which the organization reduces the employees, and above all the management of the negotiation of the new psychological contract, and the building of a new work environment, capable to balance the distrust, with initiatives aimed to favor a reciprocal investment, saving the congruence between the targets of the ‘survivors’ and the ones of the organization. of course, a dismissing is considered the worst menace when managing the employees. if on one side the survivors feel guilty and ‘different’ to have been saved, on the other side fear to be the next ones on the black list. severe interventions with cuts of the personnel, if not progressive in time, will arise the feeling of menace, with managers’ reactions aimed to centralize their control and with an important reduction of the involvement in the choices of the enterprise, together with a strong attention on formal procedures and rules [60, burke, r. leitrer, m.p., 2000]. if the reshaping of the employees is perceived as limited and temporary, also the rigidity of the theoretical and scientifical journal 74 no. 2 / 2019 reactions will be limited; if the contrary, if the diminishing of the human resources should be greater, the rigidity becomes greater too, as a reaction to an increase of the perception of the insecurity and personal menace. the increase of the stress will produce a greater conflict and irresponsibility and a lesser organizational involvement [61, lewin, j.e., 2001]. the feeling to have lost the control of the situation, and the insecurity about one’s own work future, will increase the individuals’ stress. the increasing of the work (more daily hours of work) and the diminishing of holidays days, can strengthen this reaction, sometimes causing burnout and inefficiency. these reactions are more evident when the dismissing is unexpected and concentrated in short period of time, with little communication by the organization, and without any participation of the workers [62, mone, m., 1999]. anyway some studies show the cases of individuals who, after the dismissing, increased their efforts and productivity: but these are to be considered not durable effects but a mere reaction caused by fear [63, armstrong-strassen, m., 2006]. the hidden costs of the organization to dismiss their employees – when considered a form of strategic rationalization – are often underestimate. in fact, they produce more problems than solutions, and only rarely they get the financial targets that the organization expects, as the consequences on the employees affect the general productivity [64, carbery, r., garavan, t.n., 2005]. one of these consequences is the perception of an increase of the work. readjusting the organization can signify that the employees from now on will perform tasks never performed before, and for which they are not ready, both technically and for the information they do not have. so, there will be instability in the labor force, above all if a plan capable to drive the employees in the passage to the new structure is missing. new responsibilities concerning tasks carried out by colleagues dismissed, will produce burnout phenomena, frustration, a downfall of the employees’ involvement in the organization and of their engagement in favor of the enterprise [64, carbery, r., garavan, t.n., 2005]. also a block of employments or early retirements can induce other workers to leave or change the enterprise, and they will be above all the most ambitious and productive workers. the results will be an escape of the best resources, and rapidly also its ‘memory’ will be cancelled, and only a group of discontented workers will stay, overcharged by work and with a not proper education for their tasks. absenteeism and envy for the ones who have succeeded in finding a better employment or a good retirement will increase [65, kinnie, n. et al., 2000]. a reduction of the employees changes both social relationships and work conditions. the first consequence of the increasing of the internal competition (basically provoked by the fear of uncertainty and by the wish to ‘save’ oneself), will produce conflicts and resentment among colleagues, caused by presumed racial or geographical preferences [66, koeber, c., 2002]. the perception of the justice of the organization depends mostly by the executive modes of the internal downsizing plan of the employees. if they perceive the layoff as unfair and incorrect, they will keep on projecting these judgments on all the contest of the following work, feeding uncertainty and distrust towards the organization. the judgments of people who were considered important before the layoff, will influence the perceptions of other workers about the justice and the correctness of the organization [67, brockner, j., wiesenfeld, b. et al., 1997]. in general, we can distinguish two types of reaction, according to the mode how the ‘victims’ have been selected, and later treated by the management: a sympathetic reaction and a non sympathetic reaction [68, thornhill, a.s., mark, n.k., 1998]. the first one expresses an identification with the situation of the colleagues unfairly stricken by the layoff, and causes negative emotions and reactive behaviors against the organization. the force of the reactions is connected to the previous inter-connection with the ‘victims’, and by the presence of behaviors, values and experiences shared by the workers. also being already dismissed favors a strong sharing of the situation of the colleagues. on the contrary, a non sympathetic reaction expresses a psychological estrangement from the situation: what happened was necessary and right; the people involved have been selected in a right mode, and they have deserved in a way or another what happened to them. in order to reduce their guilt towards the colleagues dismissed, some employees increase their productivity and engagement, but it is a short range reaction, a negation behavior or rather a reaction caused by fear and insecurity about their work future. some studies underline that the reaction of indifference is more frequent in economy and sociology 75 no. 2 / 2019 the highest levels of the chain of command [69, cameron, k.s., 1994]. on the whole, the redrafting of the employees, rather than renew the system, as desired, creates on the contrary a series of negative consequences which end with the dissatisfaction and the inefficiency of the workers, and with low quality services, in turn influencing negatively the judgment of the customers. the perception of a missed acknowledgment of the procedural justice in the enterprise, lows down above all the engagement and enthusiasm of the medium management, who is in charge for executive tasks and for the strategic management of the human resources. the new behavior will cause a reduction of the initiative and the liveliness of the workers, who stick rigidly to a status quo position, losing any productive enthusiasm and any chance of a competitive re-launch in a next future [70, parker, s.k. et al., 1997]. 1.5 the management of the new psychological contract the organizations cannot offer anymore a work certainty, but at the same time do not want to give off the old loyalty and dedication of their employees, which will be promoted through alternative strategies, above all to motivate their most intelligent employees after the reduction of personnel. this will need a continuous sequence of negotiations of the psychological contract that individuals and organizations stipulate during the time of work [71, herriot, p., 1992]. for many firms, all this needs a change of their management of the organization: from the traditional form of control to the significance and weight given to the participation, to the team work and to the individual involvement. it is today evident that a well identified role, symmetric communication, decentralization and a direct participation about the decisions develop involvement and engagement of the employees [72, lawler, e.e., mohrman, s.a., 1989]. the idea of the employee’s total involvement shows that the management should grant to the workers both sharing of the risks and rewards [72, lawler, e.e., mohrman, s.a., 1989]. the management should make an effort to define tasks and structures capable to allow the individuals to feel satisfied, and express and use their capacities in order to employ their decision power. of course, the challenges able to favor a self development are favored by a high involvement and identification with the organization. so, it is very important that the new employees could begin their socialization inside the organization through work tasks able to encourage their development. in order to obtain efficiency and effectiveness, the organization needs to complete but not to impose its values and tasks against the workers’, so that they could reasonably to think that if the organization develops, they will have a personal developing too. so, the organizations must develop a new involvement thanks to the creation of values coming from the individuals and from the groups, and that are not impersonally handed down from above [73, armstrong, m.a., 1991]. only the recognition of intrinsic motivating factors will permit the employees to be more dynamic, proactive and competitive. the new psychological contract is based on the hypothesis that the workers will not be automatically faithful to their firm, but, being professionals, they will oriented to a new type of loyalty, focused not on the firm but on their own competences. this means that the individuals will be above all careful to their personal development and to their competences, which make them more mobile from an enterprise to another [74, kanter, r.m., 1994]. in order to attract and retain the most qualified employees, the enterprises can no more entrust to old or traditional methods. instead of career paths or the certainty of their work, new types of incentives will be used: from the career, the status and the promotion to the personal reputation, to the team work and to demanding tasks. the enterprises must find the way to make the work involving and stimulating, so that it could become a reason to be loyal to the firm, so becoming a different type of certainty: the employability certainty. it is in fact the promise that the employee’s abilities will be promoted, and that it will be easier for him to get different tasks. according to kanter, above all nowadays, in a time of rapid and continuous changes, this will be the best promise that an employer could make to his staff [74, kanter, r.m., 1994]. many studies show that the workers’ values and expectations are rapidly changing. they more and more want to be informed about what happens in the organization; they want to understand why the managers have decided in a certain way; they want to contribute with their ideas and take part to the decisional process; they want to be autonomous and have important work experiences; they want to be given value and have a recognition as individuals because of the contribution they give to the success of the organization [75, o’reilly, b., 1994]. satisfying these expectations, needs to be really theoretical and scientifical journal 76 no. 2 / 2019 oriented to a team work, to the empowerment and to the decentralization, besides an important engagement for an honest and clear sharing of the information concerning the enterprise. it can be very difficult to be honest for what concerns the uncertainty of the work, but many organizations have discovered that when they openly share with all the employees their strategic plans, intentions and results, the engagement towards the organization and the working performances increase, even if the news is ‘bad’. so the building of a real open culture probably is one of the most important tasks of the leadership of the next future [75, o’reilly, b., 1994]. one of the most significant matters of the new psychological contract, is how to place the eldest clerks when the enterprises ask continuously their employees to be more flexible to the changes, in a time when certainty of the work and promoting chances are reducing. an obvious solution seems to offer an updating to the ones who will be requested to change their role in the organization, or to offer an outplacement to the dismissing employees or to the ones who decide to leave the organization. anyway, not all will be updated or employed again. a main reason of these limits is constituted by the perceptions that the individuals have of themselves. the problem is the capacity to change their mentality: they must not only think of their development or their career, but they should develop a wide range of competences which could give more value to their profession [76, lester, t., 1994]. the main target is the increasing of flexibility, the competences and the employability of the workers. in the organization it should be necessary to increase steadily a system able to settle and discuss the workers’ expectations about the work they make, starting already from the first working day, and then continuing with recurring evaluations in order to understand the validity of the psychological contract, and renewing it when necessary [77, hiltrop, j.m., 1995]. as the starting phase of the employment is particularly important for building up a future employee’s background, it will be absolutely necessary to pay close attention to how the new employees enter the organization. a greater part of the new employees tends to work with over-dimensioned expectations [78, louis, m.r., 1980]. it should be better to give a realistic preview of their work, in order to show both enticing and not enticing aspects of an organization, rather than to approach by traditional means, that try to underline the positive aspects of the organization and minimize the realistic ones. beginning a work, disappointed expectations mean a lack of engagement and an increase of the turnover during the first six months. in a situation where everyone is asked to make their duties as better as they can, to be fast and efficient, the satisfaction system should recognize the individual’s contribution, rather than his status. besides, as the inter-functional projects are usually temporary and less hierarchical, also the system of rewards should more dynamical and flexible, thanks to recognitions and remunerations as bonuses, benefits and so on. these should encourage the employees to better their work and study key expertise through their participation to inter-functional teams. for this reason, the individuals shall be trained by counseling and coaching, in order to better carry out their leadership, facilitating the relationships between different functions and jobs in a working team [79, pfeffer, j., 1994]. the transition of an organization towards a new psychological contract, implies the necessity to strengthen above all the planning of the human resources, and to renew on the whole the working relationship, paying specific attention both to the redeployment and when the worker will leave the work, in order to better understand and manage the building and mediation dynamics of the expectations and the needs of the workers during the working cycle [80, burack, e.h., mathys, 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people with disabilities is a current area of research. this group of people continues to be marginalized and excluded from the society’s life. this situation is determined by the high level of discrimination and stigmatization, unequal opportunities, physical and attitudinal barriers that predominate in society. more than one billion people with disabilities worldwide, accounting 15% of the world's population, face social inequality and the authorities' limited capacities to respond to the needs of the persons with disabilities. in the european union, about 80 million people live with disabilities and in the republic of moldova about 182.0 thousand people, which represent about 5% of the country's population. this study aims to analyse barriers to social inclusion of people with disabilities from the republic of moldova from the perspective of social roles valorisation. the sociological research methods used in this study are statistical data analysis, documentary analysis; sociological survey based on the questionnaire; the focus group; in-depth interview and sociological observation. the main barriers to social inclusion faced by people with disabilities in the republic of moldova are: low living standards compared to the general population, non-observance of the general accessibility principle, limited access to social services, education, health and very low participation of people with disabilities on the labour market. analysis of social inclusion issues identified through research on the views of people with disabilities, service providers and experts will help strengthen the mechanisms for evaluating, monitoring and improving social inclusion policies. keywords: social inclusion, exclusion, disability, social policies, inclusion issues, accessibility, participation, non-discrimination, institutional mechanisms. incluziunea socială a persoanelor cu dizabilități constituie un domeniu actual de cercetare. acest grup de populație continuă să fie marginalizat și exclus de la viața societății. situația dată este determinată de nivelul înalt al discriminării și stigmatizării, oportunităților inegale, barierelor fizice și atitudinale care predomină în societate. la nivel mondial, peste un miliard de persoane cu dizabilități, ceea ce constituie cca 15% din populația lumii se confruntă cu probleme de inechitate socială și incapacitatea autorităților de a răspunde nevoilor. în uniunea europeană, circa 80 milioane de persoane trăiesc cu dizabilități, iar în republica moldova sunt circa 182.0 mii persoane, ceea ce constituie aproximativ 5% din populația țării. în acest articol sunt prezentate rezultatele cercetării barierelor de incluziune socială a persoanelor cu dizabilități din republica moldova din perspectiva valorizării rolurilor sociale. metodele de cercetare sociologică utilizate la realizarea acestui studiu sunt: analiza datelor statistice, analiza documentară; ancheta sociologică în bază de chestionar; metoda focus-grupului; metoda interviului aprofundat și observația sociologică. principalele probleme și bariere ale incluziunii sociale cu care se confruntă persoanele cu dizabilități din republica moldova sunt: nivelul de trai scăzut comparativ cu populația generală, nerespectarea principiului general al accesibilității, accesul limitat la servicii sociale, educaționale, de sănătate, și participarea foarte scăzută a persoanelor cu dizabilități pe piața muncii. analiza problemelor incluziunii sociale identificate în urma cercetării opiniilor persoanelor cu dizabilități, ale prestatorilor de servicii și ale experților va contribui la consolidarea mecanismelor de evaluare și îmbunătățire a politicilor de incluziune socială și la consolidarea mecanismelor instituționale de monitorizare a politicilor de incluziune socială. cuvinte-cheie: incluziune socială, excluziune, dizabilitate, bariere ale incluziunii, oportunități, accesibilitate, participare, nediscriminare, mecanisme instituționale. 1 © munteanu parascovia, pmunteanu@keystonehumanservices.org mailto:pmunteanu@keystonehumanservices.org theoretical and scientifical journal 114 no. 1 / 2019 социальная инклюзия людей с ограниченными возможностями является актуальной областью исследований. эта группа людей продолжает оставаться маргинализованной и исключенной из жизни общества. эта ситуация определяется высоким уровнем дискриминации и стигматизации, неравными возможностями, физическими и поведенческими барьерами, которые преобладают в обществе. более одного миллиарда людей с ограниченными возможностями во всем мире, что составляет около 15% населения, сталкиваются с социальным неравенством и недостаточным действием властей по удовлетворению их потребностей. oколо 80 миллионов человек с ограниченными возможностями живут в европейском союзе, а в республике молдова около 182,0 тысяч человек, что составляет около 5% населения страны. целью данного исследования является анализ барьеров в социальной интеграции людей с ограниченными возможностями в республике молдова через призму повышения их социальных ролей в обществе. методы социологического исследования, используемые в этом исследовании: статистический анализ данных, документальный анализ, социологический опрос на основе анкетирования; фокус-группа; углубленное интервью и социологическое наблюдение. основные проблемы и препятствия для социальной интеграции, с которыми сталкиваются люди с ограниченными возможностями в республике молдова являются: низкий уровень жизни по сравнению с населением в целом, несоблюдение принципа общей доступности, ограниченный доступ к социальным услугам, образованию, здравоохранению и очень низкий уровень участия людей с ограниченными возможностями на рынке труда. анализ проблем социальной интеграции, выявленных в результате исследований у лиц с ограниченными возможностями, поставщикам услуг и экспертам, поможет укрепить механизмы оценки, мониторинг и совершенствования политики социальной интеграции. ключевые слова: социальная интеграция, исключение, ограниченные возможности, проблемы интеграции, доступность, участие, недискриминация, возможности и ресурсы, институциональные механизмы. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-09 jel classification: h75, i14, i38 udc: 364.262(478) relevance of the research. the social inclusion of people with disabilities is a relevant area of research. this group of people is still marginalized and excluded from the life of the society. this situation is determined by a high level of discrimination and stigmatization, unequal opportunities, physical and attitudinal barriers that predominate in the society. at the same time, people with disabilities face the highest rate of poverty, they have shortages and the lowest incomes in comparison with the rest of population. the poverty has a direct impact upon their health condition, participation and accomplishment of their social roles, leading to their exclusion and auto-exclusion. out of the overall number of people with disabilities in the republic of moldova, approximately 2000 people still live in residential institutions. at the global level, over a billion of people with disabilities, representing 15% of the world’s population, face problems of social inequity and the authorities’ incapacity to satisfy their needs. approximately 80 million people in the european union have disabilities [7, p. 3]. at the same time, there are almost 182.0 thousand people with disabilities in the republic of moldova; it constitutes nearly 5% of the population of the country [17]. in the republic of moldova, the lower rate of people with disabilities compared with the rate at the european and global level can be explained by the differences in the groups included in the statistical data. thus, the data regarding people with disabilities in the republic of moldova does not include pensioners of age limit with disabilities, people with disabilities who benefit from the state complete support, children between 0 and 3 years old and people with disabilities who have no certificate of determining disability and working capacity. if the statistical data also included these groups of people, the rate of people with disabilities in the republic of moldova would be much higher that it actually is. the social inclusion of people with disabilities in the republic of moldova became a priority for the government, being stipulated in the action plan for implementing the association agreement between the republic of moldova and the european union. in the same direction the state has assumed this responsibility when ratifying the un convention on the rights of persons with economy and sociology 115 no. 1/ 2019 disabilities in 2010 [5]. however, neither the people with disabilities, nor the service providers in the domain do not observe some significant changes of the situation. the state, having these responsibilities and being under the society pressure, started to develop certain policies related to the social inclusion of people with disabilities. the un committee has observed that the medical approach of disability still predominates in the republic of moldova; the policies related to social inclusion are approached sectorial and considered to be the responsibility of the ministry of health, labor and social protection without any clear mechanisms of coordination between all governmental institutions [19]. the relevance of the research domain results, also, from the fact that the stigmatizing and discriminatory attitudes towards the people with disabilities, along with inaccessibility and lack of services at the community level, predominate in our society. even though there is a developed and approved policy framework in certain domains. these policies are not so easy to implement because the reforms do not have the necessary financing, as well as because of low level of informing and awareness about the problem by the central and the local public authorities, the private institutions, the civil society and the general population. the goal of this paper is to analyse the barriers of social inclusion of people with disabilities and the degree of implementing the social policies elaborated in the last years and issuing practical recommendations in order to improve the institutional mechanism of developing, implementing and monitoring the current framework of policies that shall comprise all aspects of social inclusion. the degree of scientific approach of the domain of research. the theoretical and methodological background of the research is represented by the fundamental sociological theories. according to the structural-functionalist theory (a. compte, e. durkheim, m. weber), a society represents a functioning social system that offers to its members opportunities of social inclusion by eliminating the barriers. the theory of stigmatization (e. goffman) stipulates that an unusual attribute or stigma of a person may underline him and cause other society members’ separation from him. the theory of social role valorisation (w. wolfensberger) that forms the theoretical and scientific basis of substantiating the concept of disability and determining the model of disability approach through the prism of attributing valuable social roles to people with disabilities is very important for investigating the barriers of inclusion [20]. at the same time, the social inclusion of people with disabilities was analysed from the perspective of specific theories applied in the practice of social assistance (theory of care, theory of attachment, theory of participation) described by m. bulgaru and m. dilion in the work concepte fundamentale ale asistenței sociale [2]. at the european union level, the researches carried out by a. lawson [10] and l. gronvik [8] address the social inclusion barriers faced by the people with disabilities in different areas of interest negotiated with the council of europe and with the authorities of the member states. the main domains of research are the following: accessibility, access of people with disabilities to the services of support for their independent life in the community, inclusive education, employment, monitoring the social inclusion policies at the european union level according to the eurostat indicators etc. in romania, the issues of social inclusion represent a domain of research for d. arpinte [1], l. manea [15] and m. preda [16], who analyse the indicators of monitoring the groups with an increased risk of social exclusion. according to this analysis, the recommendations for social policies focused on evidence and needs are elaborated. in the republic of moldova, l. malcoci [13,14], m. vremeș, d. vaculovschi, v. craevschi-toartă [18] studied initially the process of inclusion as an answer to the social exclusion situations and afterwards analysed the process of inclusion of disadvantaged groups, as well as the problems faced by them in the process of social inclusion. it is worth mentioning that most of the researches from the domain focus on certain aspects of inclusion. there are no comprehensive sociological researches that address all aspects of social inclusion of people with disabilities from the perspective of social role valorisation taking into account the opinions of people with disabilities, service providers and experts from the domain. methodology of research. in order to study the barriers of social inclusion of people with disabilities from the republic of moldova we used a methodology on a representative sample at the national level that allows carrying out a multidimensional research. it were used the sociological theoretical and scientifical journal 116 no. 1 / 2019 survey based upon the questioning of 1108 people with disabilities who live in families; 59 interviews with people with intellectual disabilities who live in residential institutions; 20 in depth interviews with experts in the field and 5 focus group discussion with participation of 43 representatives of social services providers. the methods of sociological research used while carrying out this study are the following: statistical data analysis; documentary analysis; sociological survey based upon a questionnaire; focus group method; in-depth interview and the sociological observation. the research period is 2017-2018 years. results of research. this compartment of the study includes the analysis of the process of social inclusion of people with disabilities by identifying the barriers that influence their living standard and their full participation in the social life based upon the general principle of accessibility, the access to social, educational and healthcare services and their presence on the labour market. approximately 31% of the interviewed people with disabilities, in comparison with 47% of the general population, mentioned that the income they disposed of was enough only to cover their absolute necessities. only 4% of the interviewed people with disabilities, in comparison with 17% of the general population, mentioned that the income they disposed of was enough for a decent living standard, without expensive things. only 1% of the interviewed people with disabilities, in comparison with 5% of the general population, mentioned that the income they disposed of was enough for a decent living standard, as well as for expensive things [9]. the rate of people who have mentioned that their income does not cover even their absolute necessities is higher among the unemployed people with disabilities (72%), people with lower level of education (71%) and people with mental disabilities (75%) [17, p. 21]. figure 1. perceptions of the people with disabilities and the general population about the income they dispose of, % source: malcoci l., munteanu p. studiu sociologic: incluziunea socială a persoanelor cu dizabilităţi [14, p. 19]. the reduced incomes of people with disabilities limit their access to various goods and services, firstly, to the strictly necessary ones: clothes, shoes, food, drugs, water, heating and sewerage services. the results of field research show that the people with disabilities are able to cover fully or to a large extent only the monthly expenditures for electricity, water, sewerage and telecommunications (phone, tv, internet). fewer people afford paying for heating, transport, drugs, vegetables and fruits. even a smaller number of people can purchase with their income clothes, shoes, meat or dairy products. almost nobody can afford a holiday with the family once in a year, new furniture and new home appliances, or pay for the recovery and rehabilitation services. at the same time, the low incomes of people with disabilities are enough neither for creating normal living conditions, nor for ensuring the minimum consumption basket. according to the results of the research, we can conclude that the living standard of the people with disabilities, apart from the income, living conditions and the access to utilities, depends very much upon the support received by the person from the loved ones and upon the relationships with 0 50 100 the income is not enough to cover their absolute necessities the income is enough only to cover their absolute necessities the income is enough only to cover their absolute necessities, without expensive things the income is enough for a decent living standard, as well as for expensive things 64 31 4 1 31 47 17 5 general population, bop, oct.2016 persons with disabilities economy and sociology 117 no. 1/ 2019 them built through the years [14]. “the life of a person with disabilities depends very much upon the support group he has at the levels of family, community and society. the larger the group of support, the more intense the life is and the more various the social roles acquired by the person are. an active life means inclusion” [in-depth interview with a person with disabilities]. the most of service providers and experts from the domain have mentioned that there is a significant connection between the living standard and the social inclusion of people with disabilities. the small and non-diversified incomes are the main cause of the low living standard. the public authorities do not pay an increased attention to studying and evaluating the living standard of people with disabilities. this is the reason why the policies of social inclusion do not provide specific measures for improving the situation. the national bureau of statistics so far does not calculate the monthly consumption basket for people with disabilities. however, it is a very important criterion in evaluation and investigation of the living standard. the experts from the domain consider that one of the barriers that prevent determining the minimum consumption basket is the fragmentation of allowances for people with disabilities, depending on their contribution to the budget of social insurances, the disability type and its degree of severity. this fragmentation of social allowances for people with disabilities creates “confusions in the process of their management among officials as well as among people with disabilities, without any real impact on their well-being” [in-depth interview with an expert from the ministry of finance]. besides that, the amount of social allowances is miserable in comparison with the minimum consumption basket and the state does not take any measures for their increase because of the lack of financial resources. the research results highlight the fact that the living standard of the people with disabilities contributes directly to the process of social inclusion. thus, the process of social inclusion of people with disabilities is longer and more difficult because the households where at least one family member has a disability, still have a disadvantage in comparison with the households without people with disabilities. the people with disabilities represent the group with the lowest incomes in comparison with the general population. their income is equal to approximately 40% of the value of the minimum consumption basket; the rate of people with disabilities who are not able to cover their absolute necessities is twice as high as the same rate among the general population. this study also investigates the inclusion barriers faced by people with disabilities depending upon a set of indicators, namely: the general principle of accessibility, the access to social, educational and healthcare services and the presence of people with disabilities on the labour market. from the perspective of accessibility, the social inclusion of people with disabilities highlights the problems, which prevent the people with disabilities to live independently and to fully participate in all life aspects. the convention, as well as the law on social inclusion of people with disabilities, defines accessibility as a set of measures which comprises identifying and eliminating the obstacles and the barriers to the full access, in equal terms with the others, to physical environment, transport, information and means of communication, including the it and communication technologies and systems, as well as to other facilities or services opened and offered to public in urban and rural areas [12]. the analysis of legal and normative documents that regulate ensuring accessibility conditions for people with disabilities in the republic of moldova shows that a set of normative documents with the content based upon the law on social inclusion of people with disabilities has not been elaborated yet. the set lacks the following documents: the national policy of reasonable accommodation; the norms of reasonable accommodation; the standards of transport accessibility and the minimum requirements for universal design. every third person with disabilities questioned during the research considers that the absence of accessibility is one of the main reasons why the people with disabilities feel completely or partially isolated from their community [14, p. 40-41]. the results of the performed analysis show that so far there is no policy document describing the main measures and requirements in order to ensure accessibility in conformity with the principles of reasonable accommodation and universal design. in comparison to the social inclusion practices in the eu member states, depending upon the principle of accessibility, the republic of moldova is very poor at the level of legal and normative regulations, as well as at the practical level of ensuring accessibility. for these reasons, the absence of accessibility represents one of the main problems of the social inclusion process. theoretical and scientifical journal 118 no. 1 / 2019 the investigation of social inclusion with respect to the access of people with disabilities to social services was approached being based on the law no. 123 from june, 23, 2010 on social services. according to this law, people with disabilities from the republic of moldova may have access to different types of social services: primary specialized and highly specialized. mostly, the primary social services are provided at the community level, but the specialized and highly specialized services are provided at the level of district, region or republic [11]. during the research, we analysed the system of social services provided from the public resources and found that approximately 24 types of social services for all groups of population are financed from the state budget and from the budgets of the administrative territorial units. the people with disabilities are eligible for 14 types of social services. the regulatory framework of creating and functioning of the last 7 types of social services was developed with the support from the civil society organizations after the convention had been ratified. despite the fact that innovative social services for people with disabilities were developed in the last years, the participants in the research (questioned people with disabilities and experts) mentioned that these services were unevenly developed, were not sufficient and did not meet all special needs of people with disabilities. only 23% of the questioned people with disabilities mentioned that in comparison to 2010 there are more social services for people with disabilities at the level of community and district, 63% mentioned that they did not see any difference and 14% of the respondents could not give an answer. the analysis of the system of the services developed by the local public authorities highlighted the fact that some administrative territorial units do not have any type of specialized social services. the people with disabilities from these communities have access only to services provided by the community social worker. every third person with a disability questioned during the research considers that the absence of social services is one of the main reasons why the people with disabilities feel completely or partially isolated from the community [14, p. 40-41]. in the opinion of experts, there is no national mechanism of coordinating the development of social services at the level of administrative territorial units based upon the individual needs and evidences. most of specialized social services are developed in collaboration with non-governmental organizations and financed by donors in the districts where the public authorities are more open to pilot new services. in these conditions, some essential risks appear: (a) in the districts where the local public authorities are more reluctant to social services, the people with disabilities have no possibility to access services in conformity to their needs; (b) in the districts where more services are developed as soon as the district authorities and their priorities change, the sustainability of some social services can be exposed to a major risk. the experts have also mentioned that in some cases the social services are developed without having initially a strategy of ensuring the financial sustainability. many services do not have regulations on functioning and standards of quality and, as a result, cannot be accredited. according to experts’ opinion, “if the social services are managed by the local public authorities and depend upon the amount of local financing, people with disabilities will still have a limited and unfair access to social services. the service of personal assistance is an eloquent example in this context. even though this service is very necessary for the people with severe disabilities, who need a continuous care, the capacity of local authorities to allocate resources in order to increase the number of personal assistants is reduced because of the budgetary austerity” [in-depth interview with an expert from the ministry of health, labour and social protection]. the investigation of social inclusion of people with disabilities from the perspective of education was focused on the identification of the barriers to access to educational services by analysing the services of support for inclusive education; by determining whether there are services of support for the period of transition of people with disabilities from one level of education to another, and by analysing the policies and practices of inclusive education. regarding the access to education of children with disabilities, the regulatory framework of the republic of moldova [4] includes provisions related to the equality of opportunities to access to education for all children. the republic of moldova is a signatory to the convention of the rights of the child and the convention on the rights of persons with disabilities. both of these documents support that political engagement should ensure the opportunities and the access to a high-quality education for all children, including children with disabilities. in this context, the authorities had to face the following barriers: lack of support services for children with severe disabilities, as well as for children with sensory disabilities; lack of social services for children with disabilities; lack of legal framework in order to ensure the financing of the supporting economy and sociology 119 no. 1/ 2019 services for inclusive education; the lack of statistical data that may serve as a basis for planning the programs. this fact makes it necessary to map the support services [3, p. 23-24]. the inclusion of the people with disabilities in educational institutions is conditioned by the general policies of education promoted at the national and at the local level. it is worth mentioning that the incomes and the residence of people with disabilities influences the opportunities to continue their studies after graduating from a secondary school or a lyceum. according to the results of the research, the people with disabilities from rural area plead mostly for professional studies, while those from urban area plead for continuing their studies at colleges and universities. it can be explained by the better access of the people with disabilities from urban areas to studies and employment in comparison to those from rural areas. the analysis of the results, open interviews and discussions from the focus groups highlights the fact that the problem of respecting the right to education of the people with disabilities in institutions of professional studies and higher education is still relevant despite the public authorities’ policies aimed to ensure the inclusive education. according to experts, moldova registered positive changes in the domain of inclusive education in comparison with 2010. however, there is still a lot to do; the process of inclusion in general education is still quite difficult. at the same time, the experts mentioned that there were almost no changes related to inclusive education in professional and secondary specialized studies. they say that the secondary professional and specialized education is not attractive enough, being too expensive for the state. the research of social inclusion of people with disabilities with respect to their access to healthcare services highlights the fact that the services of primary, specialized and hospital medical care are not fully provided to people with disabilities. one of the main challenges is related to the reduced degree of accessibility of healthcare services determined by the lack of adapted infrastructure of medical institutions, especially in rural areas. even though the people with disabilities benefit from a free medical insurance from the system of medical insurances, they receive partially or do not receive at all some necessary drugs, because these expenditures are not covered from the state funds of medical insurances. thus, the results of the research of social inclusion of people with disabilities show that 69% of the questioned people with disabilities have access to healthcare services in equal measure with other citizens, 10% consider that they have more benefits related to the access to healthcare services in comparison to the others and 18% of the respondents think that they have fewer possibilities to access medical services. figure 2. respondents’ opinions regarding their access to social services, % source: malcoci l., munteanu p. studiu sociologic: incluziunea socială a persoanelor cu dizabilități [14, p. 36]. the results of the qualitative research carried out according to the experts’ opinions about the social inclusion with respect to the access of people with disabilities to healthcare services highlighted many barriers faced by people with disabilities during the access to healthcare services. one of these barriers refers to the impossibility of the people with severe mobility disabilities to benefit at home 69 10 18 3 have access to healthcare services in equal measure with other citizens have more benefits related to the access to healthcare services in comparison to the others have fewer possibilities to access medical services. n/a theoretical and scientifical journal 120 no. 1 / 2019 from services of specialized medical assistance. on the one hand, these people are able to go to medical institutions; on the other hand, the medical institutions do not have conditions of physical accessibility for wheelchairs and for appointment to the specialists (neurologist, cardiologist etc.) who may go home to people with severe disabilities. the reduced access of people with disabilities to free services of prosthetics, rehabilitation and recovery justified by the experts with insufficiency of resources allocated by the public local authorities leads to inclusion problems caused by the reduced mobility of people with disabilities. thus, the research results demonstrate that the access of people with disabilities to healthcare services represents one of the pillars of the social inclusion process at all levels. the problems that prevent the process of social inclusion in the domain of healthcare are the following: absence of physical accessibility and of modern medical equipment accessible for everyone, limited access to free healthcare services and compensated drugs, inefficient collaboration between medical institutions of all levels, as well as between medical institutions and those of social protection and assistance. the research of social inclusion with respect to participation of people with disabilities in the labour market aims to identify and analyse the problems faced by people with disabilities regarding their employment. the level of workforce employment decreases continuously. the working population leaves abroad because the jobs in moldova are not well paid. those who do not leave prefer either not to work, benefitting from remittances from abroad or from social allowances. when the lack of qualified workforce becomes an important constraint for employers, the employment policies should be oriented inclusively towards promoting employment services among people with disabilities. the valorisation of experience of people with disabilities accumulated in a non-formal and an informal context represents an essential factor for ensuring the access of the person to work. it is worth mentioning that 78% of people with moderate or accentuated disabilities graduated from at least one educational institution. every fourth person out of them graduated from a professional school; it is an advantage for the labour market because there are major problems related to lack of human resources or large fluctuation of employees. besides that, around 67% of the respondents involved in the research have mentioned that they are not employed now but have been employed before. most of them left their job because of disability, because they did not have the necessary support for adapting the workplace, or in order to be able to benefit from social allowances, although keeping the job does not affect in any way the person's right to disability allowances, others were fired by their employers because of their disabilities. the results of the research highlight several problems that prevent ensuring the right to work of people with disabilities: reduced level of information; lower self-esteem and motivation of people with disabilities; the problem of professional training and qualification; reduced quality of secondary professional education, secondary specialized education or higher education that contributes directly to enlarging or narrowing the possibilities of employment. general conclusions and recommendations. the main problems of social inclusion faced by the people with disabilities from the republic of moldova are the following: the decreased living standard in comparison to general population; the infringement of general principle of accessibility; the limited access to social, educational and healthcare services and a very low participation of people with disabilities in the labour market. the living standard, as an important dimension of the process of social inclusion of people with disabilities, denotes the existence of social inequalities in comparison to the general population; it has a negative influence upon the process of social inclusion. this aspect of inclusion highlights the problems preventing people with disabilities from having a decent living standard. in order to overcome the barriers of social inclusion faced by people with disabilities, according to the results of the research, a set of recommendations is suggested to the authorities: 1. to improve the system of social welfare of people with disabilities by revision of the way of calculating and offering social allowances in line with individual needs for fulfilling the social roles; delimitation of money amounts that may be considered sources of income from the social allowances offered for care. estimation by the national bureau of statistics of the minimum consumption basket for people with disabilities depending upon: the degree of severity of disability (severe, accentuated, and moderate) and the employment status (employed, unemployed). economy and sociology 121 no. 1/ 2019 2. to increase the access of people with disabilities to education, including the vocational one, by development of support services in all educational institutions in order to increase the access to studies for people with disabilities. development of continuous training programmes, including programmes of learning at home for adults with disabilities; improvement of services of professional re-qualification for the people who got their disability during the life. 3. to increase the access of people with disabilities to healthcare services by including some specialized medical services (consultations of neurologist, cardiologist, psychiatrist, orthopaedist etc.) at home for the people with severe mobility disabilities into the set of medical services covered by the national company of medical insurances. revising the list of compensated drugs; ensuring the accessibility of medical infrastructure and informational materials for people with all types of disability. 4. to increase the access of people with disabilities to social services by developing public policies in the domain of disability on the basis of evidence and evaluation of the social impact. empowering the local and national public authorities in the context of ensuring the rights of people with disabilities to benefit from social services depending upon their needs. re-evaluating the current system of social services and modifying it in conformity with the present needs of the people with disabilities. revising the mechanism of financing the social services and the staff structure from the perspective of social role valorisation of people with disabilities. 5. increasing the employment of people with disabilities by strengthening active measures of stimulation of the workforce employment. elaborating, 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[accesat 18.04.2019]. disponibil: http://cdpd.md/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/recomand%c4%83rile-ro-un-crpd.pdf 20. wolfensberger, wolf. social role valorization. new york: syracuse university, 2004. 139 p. recommended for publication: 19.06.2019 http://ipp.md/old/libview.php?l=ro&idc=156&id=804 http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=335808 http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&lang=1&id=344149 https://www.soros.md/files/publications/documents/anexa%201%20conventia%20onu%20%20ghid%20pentru%20apl.pdf https://www.soros.md/files/publications/documents/anexa%201%20conventia%20onu%20%20ghid%20pentru%20apl.pdf https://www.soros.md/files/publications/documents/studiu%20incluziunea%20sociala%20a%20persoanelor%20cu%20dizabilitati%202017.pdf https://www.soros.md/files/publications/documents/studiu%20incluziunea%20sociala%20a%20persoanelor%20cu%20dizabilitati%202017.pdf https://www.revistacalitateavietii.ro/2006/cv-1-2-06/4.pdf http://www.statistica.md/newsview.php?l=ro&idc=168&id=4976 http://www.statistica.md/newsview.php?l=ro&idc=168&id=4976 http://old.mts.gov.md/content/raportul-national-al-dezvoltarii-umane-republica-moldova-dincolo-de-tranzitie-de-la http://old.mts.gov.md/content/raportul-national-al-dezvoltarii-umane-republica-moldova-dincolo-de-tranzitie-de-la http://cdpd.md/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/recomand%c4%83rile-ro-un-crpd.pdf 1 economy and sociology international migration and population changes in moldova tatiana tabac1, phd student, scientific researcher, center for demographic research of the national institute for economic research doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.2-08 jel classification: j11, r23 udc: 331.556.4+314.116(478) abstract the paper focuses on analyzing the implications of international migration on changes in the number and structure of the population in moldova in the 2014-2020 period. the paper is based on revised data on the population with usual residence and international migration. the research methodology consists of estimating and analyzing specific indicators of migration and population change: emigration and immigration rates, gross and net migration rates, age-specific net migration rates by sex, population growth rate, and others. results show that the emigration rate during this period increased from 43 to 58 emigrants per 1000 population. the cumulative net migration is -221,3 thousand or -7,7% of the population of 2014. the mobility of moldova's population is higher than the population mobility of moscow or luxembourg. the share of women involved in the migration process is lower than that of men. youth (aged 20-34) make up a third of the annual flow of emigrants, while return migration increases at pre-retirement ages. at the same time, there is an increase in the number of children involved in international migration, which indicates the increase in families’ migration for settlement. the population of moldova decreased by -225,3 thousand in 2014-2020 or by -7.9%. the population growth rate varies between -0,7% and -1,8% annually. the paper concludes that the most important contribution to population decline is negative international migration. population decline remains the biggest demographic challenge for moldova. keywords: international migration, demographic processes, consequences of migration, population decline, moldova. articolul se focusează pe analiza implicațiilor migrației internaționale asupra schimbărilor în numărul și structura populației în moldova în perioada 2014-2020. lucrarea are la bază datele revizuite ale populației cu reședința obișnuită și a migrației internaționale. metodologia cercetării constă în estimarea și analiza indicatorilor specifici ai intensifății migrației și schimbării populației: ratele de emigrare și imigrare, rata migrației nete și migrației brute, ratele specifice ale migrației nete, rata de creștere a populației și altele. rezultatele demonstrează că rata de emigrare în această perioadă a crescut de la 43 la 58 emigranți per 1000 populație. migrația netă cumulată este de -221,3 mii persoane sau -7,7% din populația anului 2014. nivelul de mobilitate al populației moldova este mai înalt și decât nivelul de mobilitate al populației din moscova sau luxembourg. ponderea femeilor implicate în procesul migrațional este mai mică comparativ cu cea a bărbaților. tinerii (20-34 de ani) constituie a treia parte din fluxurile anuale de emigranți, în timp ce migrația de revenire crește la vârstele prepensionare. totodată, este înregistrată creșterea copiilor implicați în migrația internațională ceea ce denotă intensificarea migrației familiilor cu stabilirea reședinței în străinătate. populația moldovei a scăzut cu -225,3 mii persoane în anii 2014-2020 sau cu -7,9%. rata de scădere a 1tatiana tabac, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9526-6642: e-mail: tania.tabac@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9526-6642 mailto:tania.tabac@gmail.com 2 theoretical and scientifical journal populației variază între 0,7-1,8% anual. articolul concluzionează că cea mai importantă contribuție în declinul populației aparține migrației internaționale negative. cea mai mare provocare demografică pentru moldova rămâne a fi declinul populației. cuvinte-cheie: migrația internațională, procese demografice, consecințele migrației, declinul populației, moldova. статья посвящена анализу влияния международной миграции на изменения численности и структуры населения молдовы в период 2014-2020 гг. работа основана на пересмотренных данных о населении с постоянным местом жительства и международной миграции. методология исследования заключается в оценке и анализе показателей интенсивности миграции и изменения численности населения: коэффициенты интенсивности эмиграции и иммиграции, коэффициенты миграционного оборота и чистой миграции, коэффициенты чистой миграции по возрасту и полу, темпов роста населения и других. результаты показывают, что уровень эмиграции за исследуемый период увеличился с 43 до 58 эмигрантов на 1000 населения. кумулятивная чистая миграция составляет -221,3 тыс. человек или -7,7% от общего числа населения 2014 г. уровень мобильности населения молдовы выше, чем уровень мобильности населения москвы или люксембурга. доля женщин, вовлеченных в миграционный процесс, ниже, чем доля мужчин. молодое население (20-34 года) составляет треть годового потока эмигрантов, в то время как возвратная миграция увеличивается в предпенсионном возрасте. в то же время увеличилось количество детей, вовлеченных в международную миграцию, что свидетельствует об увеличении миграции семей с детьми на постоянное место жительства. население молдовы уменьшилось на 225,3 тыс. человек в 2014-2020 гг. или на -7,9%. темпы убыли населения колеблются в пределах 0,7–1,8% ежегодно. в статье делается вывод о том, что наиболее важным вкладом в убыль населения является отрицательная международная миграция. самой большой демографической проблемой для молдовы остается постоянная убыль населения. ключевые слова: международная миграция, демографические процессы, последствия миграции, убыль населения, молдова. introduction international estimates have shown that only european countries will have population declines by the second half of the 21st century. a un projection based on the zero-migration scenario shows a dramatic decrease in europe's population by -9% in 2050 and by -28.5% in 2100 (united nations, n.d.). this decrease will be more significant in bulgaria, hungary, poland, romania, moldova, ukraine, latvia, lithuania, croatia, greece, italy, portugal, serbia, germany, mainly due to the low level of fertility, while for some post-soviet countries, also due to the high level of mortality. the attenuation of the population decline in the european space can only take place due to international migration. according to the medium projection scenario (which assumes that international migration remains at current values), population decline on the european continent will reach -5% by 2050 and -16% by 2100 (united nations, n.d.). maintaining current trends in international migration may stop the population decline in all western and northern european countries (except the baltic states, which are characterized by high emigration rates and low immigration rates), but not in any country of southern and eastern europe. we thus find that migration has already made an important contribution to increasing/decreasing the european population. moldova is part of the group of eastern european countries, where the population dynamics are drastically affected by high population emigration rates and low immigration rates, but in the future, the population decline will continue at an even faster pace. estimates by the vienna institute of demography show that the relative decrease in the population of moldova in the 2015-2050 period due to international migration will reach up to -31.4% (scherbov et al., 2016). according to the 3 economy and sociology medium scenarios of the centre for demographic research projection, the population of moldova will drop -19,1 by 2035 (gagauz et al., 2016) and -28,2% by 2040. the most important contribution to the depopulation of moldova is the increase in the last decades of long-term emigration, often characterized by a change of usual residence abroad. the ongoing migration from independence to the present has led to the formation of significant stocks of moldovan citizens abroad encouraged by the unstable socio-economic and political situation, as well as the strengthening of social networks over time. moldovan migrants prefer european countries, such as russia, italy, spain, portugal, the czech republic, germany, france and the united kingdom. fewer may be found in switzerland, the netherlands, belgium, austria, poland, greece, canada, and the usa. the purpose of this paper is to analyze recent trends in international migration from moldova and to estimate the consequences on the population dynamics and its characteristics. the scientific novelty lies in exploring new data on international migration, for the first time estimating some indicators of migration (gross migration rate, age-specific net migration rates), the analysis based on the dynamics of migration and impact on the population structure. we note that until 2019, the national statistical system did not have reliable official data on population migration. literature review the literature mentions that international migration is the third force capable of changing the population size specifying that, unlike fertility and mortality which have changed globally over time from high to low levels, international migration has been constantly expanding, with the number of global migrants increasing as the global population grows (national research council (u.s.) et al., 2000). analyzing the impact of migration in europe, coleman (2008) argues that international migration influences the population size in most european countries, contributing to population growth in the nordic countries, slowing population decline in the southern countries and accelerating depopulation in eastern countries. conclusions expressed by coleman in 2008 continue being supported by recent studies and projection (united nations, n.d.) (cangiano, 2019). however, a much-debated aspect in the literature is not so much the impact of migration on the population dynamics, but rather on its age structure. still at the end of the twentieth century, blanchet (1989) examined the idea of using immigration as a tool for demographic control, but from the perspective of managing the age structure of the population, rather than the total number. and coleman (2008) warns that even though migration contributes to the reduction of the average population age in host countries, it can only solve the problem of demographic ageing if foreign population inflows occur in large proportions and increase exponentially. nevertheless, the simple attraction of migrants is not a mandatory condition for mitigating the challenges related to demographic aging, a more favorable solution is for immigrants to be highly qualified and employed into the labor market. however, research has shown that the share of immigrants employed in the host country is lower than the share of natives, especially immigrant women, and that the immigration of highly qualified population can better solve the tax problems of demographic aging (zaiceva & zimmermann, 2014). at the same time, mass recruitment of migrant workers cannot make up for the long-term labor shortage. russia is one of the countries in the world that has, for decades, used international labor migration as a tool to make up for the shortage of labor. however, after the entry of younger generations born in the 1990s into the working-age group, the size of the labor force in russia has declined enormously and the flows of migrant workers can no longer prevent the deficit in the working-age population (зиверт et al., 2011). while migration can address the challenges of demographic aging and the labor market in host countries, then for donor countries is a force capable of causing population decline. this is the case of moldova, but also of other ex-soviet countries that have entered the process of population decline caused by mass migration and negative natural growth (estonia, latvia, lithuania, georgia and 4 theoretical and scientifical journal armenia). national estimates have shown that moldova's population has declined by about 17-20% in the last three decades due to long-term emigration (gagauz et al., 2016; tabac & gagauz, 2020). however, migration has affected not only the population but also its demographic characteristics due to the high share of the working-age population involved in the migration process. migration has accelerated demographic aging observed in terms of demographic dependence indicators (poalelungi & mazur, 2017). in the context of these, the biggest demographic challenges remain for the countries of origin which, due to the massive outflows, face the depletion of the economically productive population, the deformation of the age structure, the acceleration of the demographic ageing process and the future increase of the tax burden. research data and methods the intensification of migration flows from moldova has also been a challenge for the national statistical system. given increased emigration, it was difficult to measure the stocks of moldovan emigrants abroad and to assess the demographic impact of migration. along the way, there have been several attempts to estimate international migration (poalelungi & mazur, 2017; tabac & gagauz, 2020), but also the revision of the actual population of moldova, which excludes the population that has left moldova more than one year (penina et al., 2015). only in 2019, the national statistical organization implemented a new methodology for estimating annual migration flows according to international recommendations (united nations, 1998) and the population with the usual residence. for this analysis the estimates of the national bureau of statistics with reference to migration flows and the population with usual residence for 2014-2020 were used. the current measurement of emigration and immigration fully complies with international recommendations and is based on the concept of usual residence. according to the definitions, an emigrant is any person who lived in moldova for a year before moving abroad for a period of at least one year. an immigrant is a person who has lived abroad for at least a year and returned to moldova to stay here for a year. and because international recommendations suggest that temporary absences for purposes of recreation, holidays, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage are not considered, one-year periods have been set at 275 days out of the 365 calendar days. the period of 275 days is estimated cumulatively and does not represent the number of consecutive days during the year. among other things, current data allows for the estimation of immigrants-foreign nationals versus immigrants-citizens of the republic of moldova. the ratio of foreign immigrants in the annual immigrant flows varies between 40-60%, so we consider an important part of the immigration flows as return migration. this finding is also supported by the fact that there is an unknown number of moldovan citizens who use only documents issued by foreign countries to cross the state border (the effect of dual citizenship). current data allowed the estimation for moldova the indicator of age-specific net migration rates by sex, which demonstrates the migration intensity at different age and sex categories. in essence, this indicator shows the intensity of net migration in different categories of the population: children, youth, working-age population, and the elderly). new data also allow other international migration indicators to be determined emigration and immigration rates, gross migration rate and net migration rate. at the same time, based on these data, the impact of migration on the population structure was estimated in terms of the main demographic indicators. results are presented below. main results current migration trends international migration from moldova has been increasing during 2014-2019 (table 1). with some insignificant fluctuations, the emigrant flows increased from 123,4 thousand in 2014 to 155,3 thousand in 2019, while the immigrant flows increased from 98,7 thousand in 2014 to 117,2 thousand in 2019. the emigration rate during this period is estimated between 43 and 58 emigrants per 1000 5 economy and sociology population, and the immigration rate between 34 and 44 immigrants per 1000 population. most unfavorable is the negative net migration that, cumulated, for 2014-2019 represents -221,3 thousand in absolute values and 7,7% in relative values. such proportions of migration from moldova were only during 2007-2011 when emigration flows intensified under the influence of family reunification policies in european countries (tabac & gagauz, 2020). gross migration shows the level of population mobility, which in the case of moldova has increased in recent years, from 222 thousand migrants involved in long-term migration in 2014 to 272.5 thousand migrants in 2019. gross migration rate has increased from 77 to 101 international migrants per 1000 population. for comparison, the level of international mobility of the moldovan population in 2019 is similar to that of the st. petersburg region (103 migrants per 1000 population) and higher than the level of population mobility in moscow city (44 migrants per 1000 population) (shcherbakova, 2020). compared to the migration trends in european countries in this period, the gross migration rate in moldova is comparatively higher than the gross migration rate in luxembourg – the country with the highest level of population mobility among all eu-28 states (щербакова, 2020). the share of women involved in the migration process is lower than that of men. the gender gap is greater for immigrant women than for emigrant women. an obvious feature is the high proportion of youth involved in migration processes. with fluctuations in some years, young emigrants aged 20-34 make up a third of the annual emigrant flows, while another third belongs to adults aged 35-59. at the same time, we note that the share of adult immigrants (35-59 years) and elderly immigrants (60+ years) is comparatively higher than the share of adult and elderly emigrants. considering that the immigrant flows is made up of a larger proportion of moldovan citizens than of foreign nationals, such results tell us that there is an increase in return migration to pre-retirement ages. table 1 demographic characteristics of migration flows in moldova, 2014-2019 indicators 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 emigrants, thousands 123,4 126,9 153,2 159,1 158,1 155,3 immigrants, thousands 98,7 105,6 107,2 109,7 116,4 117,2 gross migration, thousands 222,1 232,5 260,4 268,8 274,5 272,5 net migration, thousands -24,7 -21,3 -45,9 -49,4 -41,8 -38,2 emigration rate, per 1000 population 43,0 44,6 54,2 57,2 57,9 57,8 immigration rate, per 1000 population 34,4 37,1 38,0 39,5 42,6 43,6 gross migration rate, per 1000 population 77,4 81,7 92,2 96,7 100,5 101,4 net migration rate, per 1000 population -8,6 -7,5 -16,3 -17,8 -15,3 -14,2 % of emigrant women 46,7 45,8 43,4 43,0 45,5 47,0 % of immigrant women 41,7 42,7 42,9 43,0 43,7 44,9 sex ratio of emigrants, men per 100 women 114 118 131 133 120 113 sex ratio of immigrants, men per 100 women 140 134 133 132 129 123 emigrants by age group, % age 0-19 25,2 24,4 21,6 20,5 23,0 24,6 age 20-34 39,2 38,4 39,2 38,7 36,4 33,2 age 35-59 30,4 31,2 33,1 34,4 33,9 34,4 age 60+ 5,3 6,0 6,0 6,4 6,7 7,8 immigrants by age group, % age 0-19 17,2 17,3 18,1 16,4 15,2 16,2 age 20-34 36,6 35,1 33,9 33,7 33,2 31,2 age 35-59 39,4 40,1 40,1 41,3 41,6 42,2 age 60+ 6,8 7,5 7,9 8,6 10,0 10,4 source: author's calculations based on nbs data 6 theoretical and scientifical journal high youth migration is more evident when estimating the age specific net migration rates (fig. 1), the indicator that demonstrates the migration intensity by different age groups and sexes (womenmen, children, youth, adults and older people). the estimates show that the highest migration was between the ages of 20-29 and in the years 2016-2019. other active age groups in international migration are youth aged 15-19 and children up to age 10. in 2017, the net migration of men aged 20-24 was 56 men per 1000, while in the 25-29 age group it was 48 men per 1000. in the case of women, the net migration in the age group 20-24 was 43 women per 1000, while 32 women per 1000 were in the 25-29 age group. emigration rates of youth decreased slightly by 2019, however, they remain at very high levels compared to other age groups. for example, 34 men per 1000 men in the age group 20-24 migrated on a long-term period in 2019, compared to 10 men per 1000 men aged 34-39. this trend is also observed among women. an even more worrying trend observed in 2018-2019 is the increase in the ratio of children involved in international migration. the net migration rate of boys aged 0-4 was 32-35 boys per 1000, and at the age of 5-9, it was 27 per 1000. the net migration rate of girls aged 0-4 was 33-37 girls per 1000, and at the age of 5-9, it was 25-29 girls per 1000. since children cannot migrate without their parents, we consider that these data tell us about the intensification of families’ migration for settlement which was already demonstrated in other works. while children and youth migrate from moldova, adults and the older people tend to return to moldova. in the years 2014-2015, there was a positive net migration for men in age groups 40-69 and for women in age groups 45-69. starting with 2016, the age of positive net migration increases from age 50+ for both sexes, with some insignificant variations. figure 1. age-specific net migration rate by sex, 2014-2019, per 1000 population source: author's calculations based on nbs data 7 economy and sociology effects of migration on population change migration has major consequences on moldova’s population dynamics and composition. first, international migration leads to a fast-paced decrease in the population of moldova. in the 2014-2019 period, the population decreased by 7.9% (or -225.3 thousand). the population decline is largely due to negative international migration (7.7%) and only slightly due to the negative natural decrease (0,14%, which increased due to the covid-19 pandemic). the population growth rate varies between -0,7% and -1,8% annually (table 2). secondly, international migration causes rapid changes in population composition. high rates of negative migration among the young population cause depletion of the working age and reproductive population and accelerate the demographic ageing in moldova. the mean age of the population increased by 1,8 years in the period 2014-2020. if the share of the population under 18 years registers stable values in the analyzed period, then the share of youth (18-34 years old) shows a decrease of 4,6 thousand. despite the fact that moldova is going through a period of demographic dividend (gagauz et al., 2016), the size of the working age population remains stable (in the absence of emigration, the number of working age population would continue to grow). at the same time, there is an increase in the older aged 60 and over, as well as the aged 65 and over. the dependency ratio in 2020 is 49 of dependents to 100 working-age population, increasing by 9 dependents more than in 2014. table 2 some demographic characteristics and indicators of the population of moldova, 2014-2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 total population, thousands 2869,2 2844,7 2824,4 2780,0 2730,4 2686,1 2643,9 population growth rate, % -0,9% -0,7% -1,6% -1,8% -1,6% -1,6% natural growth, thousands 1,2 0,7 1,2 -0,4 -2,7 -4,0 -9,9 migration growth, thousands -24,7 -21,3 -45,9 -49,4 -41,8 -38,2 n/d mean age, years 36,9 37,1 37,3 37,6 37,9 38,3 38,7 % under 18 21,7 21,5 21,4 21,7 21,9 21,8 21,7 % 18-34 27,3 26,9 26,4 25,5 24,5 23,6 22,7 % 35-59 33,5 33,5 33,6 33,6 33,6 33,8 33,9 % 60+ 17,5 18,1 18,5 19,2 20,0 20,8 21,7 % 65+ 10,9 11,5 12,0 12,6 13,2 13,8 14,4 gender ratio, men to 100 women 92 93 93 92 91 91 91 dependency ratio 40 42 43 45 47 48 49 source: author's calculations based on nbs data note: the dependency rate is estimated as the ratio between children (0-14) and older people (65+) in the workingage population (age 15-64). conclusions and discussions migration exchanges between moldova and the rest of the world were possible only three decades ago, with the break-up of the soviet bloc and independence. emigration rates have been extremely high throughout the independence period, and net migration was negative, cumulating, according to estimates by the center for demographic research, over 1 million citizens who emigrated permanently or for a long-term period. 8 theoretical and scientifical journal this paper provides evidence that international migration continues to be particularly high and negatively affects the dynamics and composition of moldova's population. the current migration trends are as follows: the international mobility of the population is one of the highest in the world, the migration of youth is constantly increasing and so is the migration of families with children, at the same time, there is an increase in the return migrants close to retirement age. according to results, about 98% of the population decline in the analyzed period is due to international migration, the total decrease caused by migration being 7.7%. massive youth migration accelerate the demographic aging: the lack of youth increases the proportion of older aged 60 and over and the demographic burden. in addition, the emigration of the working-age population inevitably leads to a depletion of the labor force and an increase in the deficit in the internal labor market. the high migration, especially of young people, indicates (probably the most important thing) that the population is discouraged about social opportunities at home, opportunities for the professional ascent, employment and earning a decent income, of low life quality, etc. at the same time, moldova is inevitably in a process of competitiveness with the destination countries which, due to the high level of socio-economic development, are attractive for talented and smart youth. contemporary literature argues that migration does not decrease until the country of origin reaches a comfortable (though not necessarily equal) standard of living compared to that of the destination country. return migrants of pre-retirement and retirement age represent the population involved in labor migration many years and who return to moldova due to old age. in most cases, the government will have to cover their social protection needs. some of them may receive an old-age pension paid by the host country; others may have financial accumulations as a guarantor for a decent life in moldova. however, the proportion of insured persons does not appear significant. perhaps the biggest demographic challenge for moldova remains the decline in human capital. not only is the population declining, but the process of reducing the economically active and reproductive population by migration is also in swing. the results of scientific research have long signaled the intensification of migration in the working-age population, and demographic projection show that current migration trends will lead to a deterioration in the population’s composition. finally, there is an urgent need to build a demographic perspective for moldova in migration policies, which in turn are strongly influenced by the geopolitical and economic system. acknowledgments this paper was developed within the "migration, demographic change, and stabilization policies" state program (2020-2023) 20.80009.0807.21. references 1. cangiano, a. (2019). briefing: the impact of migration on uk population growth. https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/briefing-the-impact-ofmigration-on-uk-population-growth-dec-2019.pdf 2. gagauz, o., stratan, a., buciuceanu-vrabie, m., penina, o., ciubotaru, v., & cheianu-andrei, d. (2016). population situation analysis in the republic of moldova (p. 174). chisinau. https://moldova.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/psa_engleza.pdf 3. national research council (u.s.), bongaarts, j., & bulatao, r. a. (eds.). (2000). beyond six billion: forecasting the world’s population. national academy press. 4. penina, o., jdanov, d. a., & grigoriev, p. (2015). producing reliable mortality estimates in the context of distorted population statistics: the case of moldova (wp-2015-011; 0 ed., p. wp2015-011). max planck institute for demographic research. https://doi.org/10.4054/mpidrwp-2015-011 5. poalelungi, o., & mazur, j. (2017). extended migration profile of the republic of moldova 2010-2015: overview of migration trends for the period 2005-2015: analytical report. international organization for migration, mission to moldova. 9 economy and sociology 6. scherbov, s., mamolo, m., potančoková, m., sobotka, t., & zeman, k. (2016). european demographic datasheet 2016 [other]. wittgenstein centre (iiasa, vid/oeaw, wu), vienna. http://www.populationeurope.org/about 7. tabac, t., & gagauz, o. (2020). migration from moldova: trajectories and implications for the country of origin. in m. denisenko, s. strozza, & m. light (eds.), migration from the newly independent states (pp. 143–168). springer international publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36075-7_7 8. united nations. (n.d.). world population prospects—population division—united nations. department of economic and social affairs. retrieved 27 january 2022, from https://population.un.org/wpp/download/standard/population/ 9. united nations (ed.). (1998). recommendations on statistics of international migration. united nations. 10. zaiceva, a., & zimmermann, k. f. (2014). migration and the demographic shift. 74. 11. зиверт, с., захаров, с. в., & клингхольц, р. (2011). исчезающая мировая держава. демографическое будущее россии и других бывших союзных государств. berlin institute for population and development. https://publications.hse.ru/books/69691826 12. щербакова, е. (2020). в 2019 году за счет миграционного обмена со странами снг увеличилось население 76 регионов, за счет обмена с другими регионами россии—19. демоскоп weekly. http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2020/0851/barom04.php received 15 november 2021 accepted 20 december 2021 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 28 analysis of financial assistance from international financial institutions to moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-03 sergey stupachev, chief specialist-expert rossotrudnichestvo phd student, academy of economic studies of moldova https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3831-8132, e-mail: stypaschev@mail.ru received 14 february 2022 accepted for publication 15 may 2022 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3831-8132 mailto:stypaschev@mail.ru economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 29 abstract the article considers the financial assistance of international financial institutions (the international monetary fund and the world bank) to moldova in their partnership process. the relevance of the study is determined by the objective need to use this financial assistance to solve urgent financial and economic problems and implement an effective economic policy of moldova. the purpose of the article is to analyze the financial assistance of international financial institutions to moldova to assess the current state and prospects for developing their financial relations. the information base of the research consists of theoretical and methodological scientific studies of foreign and moldovan economists devoted to the subject under consideration; information materials of official websites of financial organizations. it is shown that for the entire period of financial support of moldova by the international monetary fund, almost all special credit mechanisms have been implemented. since 1993, the world bank has implemented and is financing 118 different projects (90 completed, 18 active and 7 under development). agriculture accounts for the largest number of projects financed by the bank. it is revealed that the country's debt and overdue obligations to international financial institutions have an upward trend, which is due to the crises and financial instability of 2008 and 2019. the continuation of such a trend in the future may lead to certain financial and economic problems if the financial assistance received does not lead to significant development of the moldovan economy. keywords: international financial institutions, international finance, international financial assistance, emerging markets, economic crisis. articolul relevă asistența financiară acordată de instituțiile financiare internaționale (fondul monetar internațional și banca mondială) moldovei în procesul de cooperare în calitatea lor de parteneri. relevanța studiului este determinată de necesitatea obiectivă de a utiliza această asistență pentru a rezolva problemele financiare și economice stringente ale țării și a promova o politică economică eficientă. scopul articolului este de a analiza asistența financiară acordată de instituțiile financiare internaționale moldovei pentru a evalua starea actuală și perspectivele de dezvoltare a relațiilor cu acestea. articolul se bazează pe studii științifice teoretice și metodologice ale economiștilor străini și moldoveni, axate pe problematica în cauză, materiale informative ale site-urilor web oficiale ale organizațiilor financiare. pe toată perioada sprijinului financiar acordat moldovei de către fondul monetar internațional au fost implementate aproape toate mecanismele speciale de creditare existente. din 1993, banca mondială a finanțat și continua să finanțeze 118 proiecte diferite (90 au fost finalizate, 18 sunt active și 7 în curs de elaborare). cel mai mare număr de proiecte finanțate de bancă revine agriculturii. datoria și obligațiile restante ale țării față de instituțiile financiare internaționale au o tendință ascendentă, determinată de crizele și instabilitatea financiară din anii 2008 și 2019. continuarea acestei tendințe în viitor se poate solda cu anumite probleme economice, dacă asistența financiară nu va contribui la o dezvoltare semnificativă a economiei moldovenești. cuvinte-cheie: instituții financiare internaționale, finanțe internaționale, asistență financiară internațională, piețe emergente, criză economică. в статье рассматривается финансовая помощь международных финансовых институтов (международного валютного фонда и всемирного банка) молдове в рамках сотрудничества. актуальность исследования определяется объективной необходимостью использования оказанной финансовой помощи для решения неотложных финансово-экономических проблем и проведения эффективной экономической политики в молдове. цель статьи является анализ economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 30 финансовой помощи, оказанной международнмих финансовыми институтами молдове, для оценки современного состояния и перспектив развития их финансовых взаимоотношений. статья основывается на теоретических и методологических научных исследованиях зарубежных и молдавских экономистов, посвященных рассматриваемой тематике, информационных материалах официальных сайтов финансовых организаций. следует отметить, что за время финансовой поддержки молдовы международным валютным фондом были использованы практически все специальные кредитные механизмы. начиная с 1993г. всемирный банк финансировал 118 различных проектов (90 были завершены, 18 находятся на стадии реализации и 7 на стадии разработки). наибольшее количество профинансированных банком проектов приходится на сельское хозяйство. выявлено, что задолженность и просроченные обязательства страны перед международными финансовыми институтами имеют отчетливую тенденцию к повышению, которая обусловлена кризисами и финансовой нестабильностью 2008 и 2019 гг. сохранение такой тенденции в будущем может привести к определенным финансово-экономическим проблемам, если полученная финансовая помощь не будет способствовать значительному росту экономики молдовы. ключевые слова: международные финансовые институты, международные финансы, международная финансовая помощь, развивающиеся рынки, экономический кризис. jel classification: e69, f21, f33, f35. udc: 339.726+339.732+339.727.3 introduction in modern conditions of the global economic world order, the international financial institutions (ifi) play an important role. they are now a key element of the international financial system. significant amounts of financial resources, scientific and economic potential and international prestige allow ifis to have a significant impact on the economic development of many countries and regions of the world. the article deals with the main world ifis: the international monetary fund (imf) and the world bank group (wb). moldova, like other emerging market economies, is in the process of integrating into the international financial system. its membership in the structures of ifis makes it possible to use the financial resources to intensify this process. the global economic crisis of 2008 and the economic consequences of the covid-19 pandemic have caused serious challenges, both for the entire system of the global world economy and its financial component. during the period of crisis, countries with developing market economies find themselves in a very difficult financial and economic situation. in this regard, to solve the urgent financial and economic problems that have arisen and to conduct an effective financial and economic policy for the development of its economic system, the moldova objectively needs financial assistance from ifis. literature review foreign and moldavian economists devoted their scientific works to the problems related to some aspects of the subject under consideration in this article. in the article (kregel, 2018), special attention is paid to offsetting the lack of domestic savings with external financing in the form of soft loans as part of official assistance from international financial institutions. it is shown that the financing of economic development should be carried out through the comprehensive use of national financial institutions and the stimulation of employment in domestic manufacturing and export-oriented industries. the essence of foreign direct investment was analyzed by dunning (1988) and markusen (2000). various aspects of financial assistance to developing countries in order to promote their economic and social development, as well as to expand the mechanism for their concessional lending economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 31 to the world bank, are considered by the us congress in a study (congress u.s., 2020). the role of the world bank in promoting participatory budgeting (pb) with partners is discussed by goldfrank (2012). wb is shown to have little effect on pb outcomes in different countries since there is no way to control many influencing factors. nevertheless, there is great practical potential in the implementation of pb procedures. vilpišauskas (2019) studied the strategies and approaches of the main international financial institutions — the international monetary fund and the world bank to reforms in the eastern partnership countries (belarus, moldova and ukraine). it is noted that in addition to the traditional recommendations for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, ifis in these countries are focusing on reforms in the most corrupt sectors — banking and energy. the article by lopotenco (2020) focuses on the vulnerability of the economy of moldova and especially its financial system to the economic crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic. it is revealed that this vulnerability is mainly related to the specifics of the country's economy (small, open economy, with a constant current account deficit and a strong dependence on international financial flows). the study conducted by stratan (2020) analyzes the role and approach of the international monetary fund and the world bank in developing and supporting moldova to overcome the covid-19 crisis. it is shown that these organizations have made an urgent contribution to provide emergency financial assistance to mitigate the economic consequences of covid-19, especially to stabilize the country's balance of payments. the role of international financial flows in stimulating the economic growth of moldova was analyzed by железнова, хынку (2011). research methods as a practical basis, the article uses the scientific works of moldovan and foreign scientists on international financial flows and investments. the methodological basis of the study includes: causal relationships of the phenomenon under study, mechanisms and financial flows of moldova within the framework of financial assistance provided by the imf and the wb; statistical methods of data analysis (quantitative, qualitative, comparative). the charts presented in this article are implemented in excel. the source of factual data on ifi financial assistance to moldova is the official websites of the imf and wb. the source of the country's financial and economic data is the official website of the national bank of moldova. research results currently, moldova has the following agreements with the imf on special lending facilities (national bank of moldova, 2021): • mechanism of compensatory and reserve financing (compensatory and contingency financing facility, ccff); • a systemic transformation mechanism for financing structural transformations (systemic transformation facility, stf); • stand-by agreement (sba) — for certain purposes agreed with the imf; • an extended financing mechanism (extended fund facility, eff) — to provide funds for long periods and in larger amounts in relation to quotas than is provided for in the country's usual credit shares. the basis for granting a loan is a serious violation of the balance of payments; • an extended credit facility (extended credit facility, ecf) provided on concessional terms in order to reduce poverty and promote economic growth; • concessional lending under the rapid financing instrument (rfi) and the rapid credit facility (rcf). in connection with the socio-economic crisis associated with the covid-19 pandemic, for low-income countries, including moldova, in 2020, the imf opened access to concessional lending under the rapid financing instrument (rfi) and the rapid credit facility (rcf) (imf, 2021a). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 32 it should be noted that the ecf and eff lending mechanisms are used to eliminate a serious imbalance in the balance of payments, as well as to reduce poverty and promote economic growth. at the same time, these credit facilities have been used by the imf regularly for lending to moldova since 1996. the last lending under these facilities was made on 20.12.2021 (imf, 2021a). that is, from 1996 to the present, the problem of balance of payments violations and poverty reduction in moldova has not been finally resolved. during the entire period of financial support to moldova, starting from 1993, the imf has been involved in almost all special credit mechanisms. also, the imf has carried out annual consulting in the country in the field of financial and economic policy, including the central bank's policy. let's consider the dynamics of moldova's debt on the imf loan since 1993. figure 1 shows the graph of changes in the debt on the imf loan of moldova in sdr from 1993 to 2021 (imf, 2021b). figure 1. change in the total debt of moldova under the imf loan source: developed by the author according to the imf the data in figure 1 show that the total debt of moldova since 1993 on various imf loans has an upward trend (63 million sdr in 1993, 346.676 million sdr and 368.538 million sdr in 2020 and 2021, respectively). the consequences of the global economic crisis of 2008 affected the financial and economic situation of the country — the debt to the imf increased sharply: from 98,164 million sdr in 2009 to 398,174 million sdr in 2012 (the maximum for the entire time of partnership with the imf). the economic and social consequences of the covid-19 pandemic have led to a significant increase in moldova's debt to the imf compared to pre-crisis 2019. as of 31.12.2021, the country's debt on imf loans reached sdr 368.538 million (about 516 million us dollars) (imf, 2021b), which is less than its maximum value in 2012, but over 3.7 times more than in 2009. thus, the data in figure 1 demonstrate that during the periods of crisis and financial instability in 2008 and 2019, to solve the urgent financial and economic problems of moldova and implement a policy to stabilize its economic system, the imf has dramatically increased its financial assistance to the country. the growth of this financial assistance was reflected by a significant increase in the total debt of moldova to the imf after 2008 and 2019 and the preservation of its overall upward trend. at the same time, the volumes of overdue obligations and projected payments of the country to the imf as of 02/28/2022 also have an upward trend (figure 2) (imf, 2021c). the maximum volume of payments is projected for 2024 — 79.11 million sdr. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 33 figure 2. change in the volume of overdue obligations and projected payments of the country to the imf source: developed by the author according to the imf such a significant amount of payments on overdue obligations means that the country may face certain economic and financial problems in the future. moreover, if borrowing from the imf does not lead to significant development of moldova's economy, these problems will grow every year. therefore, the financial resources received by the country from the ifi should be used for its economy with maximum efficiency. significant support to moldova is provided by the world bank group, which from 11.03.1993 to 05.11.2021 took and is taking part in financing 118 different projects (the world bank group, 2021a). the total amount of funding for these projects amounted to 2,013.66 million us dollars, including: • 90 completed projects — 1,192. 26 million us dollars; • 18 active projects — 636.58 million us dollars; • 7 projects under development — 184.82 million us dollars. • 3 cancelled projects. accordingly, the world bank has allocated 821.4 million us dollars for 7 projects under development and 18 active projects (25 projects in total) implemented over the past 9 years. moreover, totally 1,192.26 million us dollars were spent on all 90 completed projects over 19 years. that is, over the past 9 years, the intensity of the world bank's project financial assistance to the country has sharply increased. figure 3 shows data on the obligations of moldova to the world bank group from 2014 to october 2021 (in millions of us dollars) (the world bank group, 2021b). figure 3. obligations of moldova for financial years to the world bank group source: developed by the author based on data from the world bank group economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 34 the diagram in figure 3 shows that the lending of projects in moldova by the world bank group has increased significantly since the beginning of the covid-19 crisis compared to previous years. currently, the bulk of the wb's financial resources is directed to the implementation of urgent medical projects and projects related to the elimination of the consequences of the socio-economic crisis from the covid-19 pandemic. this makes it possible for the government not to divert significant financial resources from other important socio-economic programs. the number of projects by category of economic topics financed by the world bank group in moldova from 11.03.1993 to 23.04.2021 are presented in table 1 (the world bank group, 2021c). table 1 number of projects in moldova by category of economic topics funded by the world bank group world bank projects on themes of economics number of projects rural services and infrastructure 18 state-owned enterprise restructuring and privatization 9 public expenditure, financial management and procurement 9 micro, small and medium enterprise support 9 rural markets 10 administrative and civil service reform 10 rural policies and institutions 11 education for all 11 regulation and competition policy 15 climate change 16 total 118 source: developed by the author based on data from the world bank group the data in table 1 show that the largest number (39) of world bank-funded projects falls on agriculture, a key sector of the moldovan economy. in second and third place are projects related to climate change (16) and regulation of competition policy (15). the number of other projects financed on economic topics is approximately equal. conclusions a study of the financial assistance provided by the ifi to moldova showed that the country's financial cooperation with the international monetary fund and the world bank group is carried out in all financial and economic aspects that are in the assets of these organizations. it has been established that all the main special credit mechanisms used by the imf are involved in this process, and the world bank group has participated and is participating in lending 118 projects on various topics since 1993. the largest number of credited projects (39) falls on agriculture, a key sector of the moldovan economy. at the same time, over the past 9 years, the intensity of the world bank's project financial assistance to the country has increased dramatically. it was revealed that the imf's financial assistance is regularly provided to reduce poverty and promote economic growth, as well as to eliminate the country's balance of payments deficit caused by unfavorable changes in the structure of its economy. that is, since the beginning of financial cooperation between moldova and the imf, this situation has not changed for the better. the data on the dynamics of the total volume of debt to ifis, overdue obligations and projected payments of moldova to the imf allow us to conclude that their upward trend is due to the periods of crisis phenomena and financial instability in 2008 and 2019. the continuation of this trend in the future may lead to certain economic and financial problems if borrowing from ifis does not lead to significant development of the moldovan economy. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 35 in this regard, it would be economically feasible for the imf and the wb to allocate financial resources on a permanent basis to improve the financial and economic stability of moldova, in particular, to eliminate the problem areas of key sectors of its economy (these include the agricultural and banking sectors). improving the structure of the key sectors of the moldovan economy will have an impact on the entire economic system of the country as a whole and its economic stability. thus, the results of financial cooperation with ifis and their role in the economic development of moldova could be much more significant if the specifics of its economic system are taken into account, and the efficiency of using the financial resources of these organizations is increased. references congress, u. s. (2020). multilateral development banks: overview and issues for congress. congressional research service. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r41170 dunning, j. h. (1988). explaining international production. london: unwin hyman. goldfrank, b. (2012). the world bank and the globalization of participatory budgeting, journal of public deliberation, 8, 2. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0ee3/41760f6ac48055efe2daf5d56f8898f82e74.pdf?_ga=2.55679979.197 5371505.1650129349-665675.1646414585 imf. (2021a). moldova and the imf. https://www.imf.md/imfmold.html imf. (2021b). moldova, republic of: credit outstanding as of november 30 2021. https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exportal.aspx?memberkey1=672&category=exc imf. (2021c). moldova, republic of: financial position in the fund as of november 30, 2021. https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exfin2.aspx?memberkey1=672&date1key=2099-12-31 lopotenco, v. (2020). the financial system challenges of the republic of moldova in the pandemic covid 19 context. international journal of innovative technologies in economy, 4(31), 1-5. https://doi.org/10.31435/rsglobal_ijite/30092020/7170 markusen, j. r. (2000). foreign direct investment and trade. adelaide: university of adelaide. national bank of moldova. (2021). relations with the international monetary fund (imf). https://www.bnm.md/en/content/relations-international-monetary-fund-imf stratan, i. (2020). the role of the development partners in the republic of moldova in the context of the covid19. univers strategic, 3(43), 79-89. the world bank group (2021a). projects. https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/projectslist?lang=en&&=&countrycode_exact=md&os=0 the world bank group (2021b). the world bank in moldova. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/moldova/overview the world bank group (2021c). projects. http://projects.worldbank.org/search?lang=en&&&searchterm=&countrycode_exact=md vilpišauskas, r. (2019). strategies and approaches of international financial institutions towards eastern partnership countries. eu-strat working paper, 14, 3-38. http://eu-strat.eu/wpcontent/uploads/2019/01/eu-strat-working-paper-no.-14.pdf железнова, н., хынку р., & железнова, е. (2011). основы функционирования рынка капитала. кишинев: мэа. крегель, я. (2018). теория мински: международное финансирование развивающихся стран. экономическая политика, 13, 4, 8-19. https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2018-4-01 https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r41170 https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0ee3/41760f6ac48055efe2daf5d56f8898f82e74.pdf?_ga=2.55679979.1975371505.1650129349-665675.1646414585 https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0ee3/41760f6ac48055efe2daf5d56f8898f82e74.pdf?_ga=2.55679979.1975371505.1650129349-665675.1646414585 https://www.imf.md/imfmold.html https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exportal.aspx?memberkey1=672&category=exc https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exfin2.aspx?memberkey1=672&date1key=2099-12-31 https://doi.org/10.31435/rsglobal_ijite/30092020/7170 https://www.bnm.md/en/content/relations-international-monetary-fund-imf https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/projects-list?lang=en&&=&countrycode_exact=md&os=0 https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/projects-list?lang=en&&=&countrycode_exact=md&os=0 https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/moldova/overview http://projects.worldbank.org/search?lang=en&&&searchterm=&countrycode_exact=md http://eu-strat.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/eu-strat-working-paper-no.-14.pdf http://eu-strat.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/eu-strat-working-paper-no.-14.pdf https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2018-4-01 1 economy and sociology socioeconomic impact of the covid-19 pandemic and of the response policy in moldova: an intergenerational perspective based on the computable general equilibrium model valeriu prohnițchi1, phd student, academy of economic studies of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.2-01 jel classification: e16, h21, h31, d58 udc: 330.42(478) abstract the author employs a computable general equilibrium (cge) model calibrated on a social accounting matrix for the moldovan economy and enhanced with demographic details to answer three questions: 1) what has been the short-term socioeconomic impact of covid-19, including the distributional ones from the gender and age perspective? 2) how likely were the 2020 policy measures to provide an adequate immediate response to the crisis? and 3) would there exist an alternative, more optimal policy? according to the cge-based simulation results, cumulative effect of the covid-19 economic shocks represents around 11% of the moldovan gdp. all economic sectors are predicted to decline, with transport, horeca and services to population sectors suffering the heaviest contractions. transport sector employs predominantly mid-aged men, while the latter two typically employ women. ageand sex-structure of employment by sectors explain why men aged 2534 and women aged 15-24 suffer the largest reduction of their wage income (around 10%). reflecting the income contraction of the breadwinning age categories and reduction in intra-household transfers, children’ consumption declines accordingly. the older generations relying on public pensions are relatively better sheltered against the covid-19 socioeconomic effects, as pensions remain rather stable. the analysis suggests that the package of measures adopted by moldovan government has had minor impact, with vat reduction to horeca sector having smaller compensatory effect compared to direct payments to infected doctors and labor-related subsidies. a combination of fiscal and structural measures would have provided a socially fairer and economically more efficient response to the crisis. cuvinte-cheie: model de echilibru general aplicat, matrice de contabilitate socială, politică macroeconomică, răspuns politic, transferuri intergeneraționale, conturi naționale de transfer. autorul folosește un model de echilibru general aplicat (mega) calibrat pe o matrice de contabilitate socială pentru economia moldovenească și augmentată cu detalii demografice pentru a răspunde la trei întrebări: 1) care a fost impactul covid-19 din perspectiva impactului economic și distribuțional pe vârste și genuri? 2) cât de adecvat a fost răspunsul de politici din 2020? și 3) ar fi existat oare o politică mai bună? modelul sugerează că efectul cumulat al șocurilor provocate de covid-19 reprezintă aproximativ 11% din pib și anticipează că toate sectoarele suferă scăderi, cele mai afectate fiind transporturile, horeca și serviciile prestate populației. sectorul transporturilor angajează preponderent bărbați de vârstă mijlocie, în timp ce celelalte două mai mult femei. structura de vârstă și sex a ocupării pe sectoare explică de ce bărbații de 25-34 de ani și femeile de 15-24 de ani suferă cea mai mare reducere a veniturilor salariale (10%). reflectând scăderea veniturilor categoriilor economic active și reducerea transferurilor intra-gospodărie, 1 valeriu prohnițchi, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1729-4650 e-mail: prohnitchi@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1729-4650 mailto:prohnitchi@gmail.com 2 theoretical and scientifical journal consumul de care beneficiază copii scade, în consecință. generațiile mai în vârstă, care se bazează pe pensiile publice, sunt relativ mai bine protejate împotriva efectelor socioeconomice ale covid19, deoarece pensii rămân stabile. analiza sugerează că măsurile adoptate de guvern au avut un impact minor, reducerea tva pentru sectorul horeca având un efect compensator mai mic în comparație cu plățile directe către medicii infectați și subvenționarea ocupării. o combinație de măsuri fiscale și structurale ar fi oferit un răspuns mai echitabil social și economic mai eficient din punct de vedere economic la criză. key words: general computable equilibrium model, social accounting matrix, macroeconomic policy, policy response, inter-generational transfers, national transfer accounts. автор использует прикладную модель общего равновесия (пмор), калиброванную на основе матрицы социального учета для экономики молдовы и дополненную демографическими данными, чтобы ответить на три вопроса: 1) каково было краткосрочное социальноэкономическое воздействие covid-19 с точки зрения пола и возраста? 2) насколько вероятно, что меры политики 2020 года обеспечат адекватный ответ на кризис? и 3) существует ли лучшая альтернативная политика? модель предсказывает, что совокупный эффект экономических потрясений, вызванных covid-19, составляет около 11% ввп и что спад будет во всех секторах, наиболее затронутыми из которых будут транспорт, horeca (гостиницы, рестораны и кафе) и сектор услуг предоставляемые населению. в транспортном секторе в основном заняты мужчины среднего возраста, а в двух других главным образом женщин. возрастная и половая структура занятости по секторам объясняет, почему мужчины в возрасте 25-34 лет и женщины в возрасте 15-24 лет страдают от наибольшего снижения заработной платы (10%). отражая снижение доходов экономически активных категорий и сокращение трансфертов внутри домохозяйств, потребление детей соответственно снижается. старшие поколения, которые зависят от государственных пенсий, относительно лучше защищены от социально-экономических последствий covid-19, поскольку пенсии остаются стабильными. анализ показывает, что меры, принятые правительством, оказали незначительное влияние, а снижение ндс для сектора horeca имело меньший компенсирующий эффект по сравнению с прямыми выплатами инфицированным врачам и субсидированием занятости. сочетание фискальных и структурных мер обеспечило бы более справедливый в социальном и экономическом отношении более эффективный ответ на кризис. ключевые слова: прикладная модель общего равновесия, матрица социального учета, макроэкономическая политика, ответные меры политики, межпоколенческие трансферты, национальные трансферные счета. introduction the covid-19 pandemic engendered a systemic impact on the moldovan economy. domestic administrative restrictions and external shocks undermined the economic activities and boiled the economic system down. due do the multifaceted and often opposing changes shocks involved, a net assessment of covid-19 should account for general equilibrium effects. computable general equilibrium (cge) models are particularly useful for undertaking such system-wide analyses. they consistently account for all changes in prices and quantities that shocks trigger in all markets. covid-19 may have also involved significant distributional effects, as the crisis did not equally hit all economic sectors and, implicitly, all generations. it is thus of practical policy importance to understand which economic sectors and social groups may have been hit particularly hard by the crisis and to assess if the immediate policy measures offered a meaningful response to the crisis. if not, what combination of policy tools would have suited this purpose better? to address these questions, we employ a cge model calibrated on a moldovan social accounting matrix augmented with demographic details. 3 economy and sociology literature review cge models have been widely used to assess the direct impact of the covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions. in uk, a cge model was linked to a population-wide epidemiological and demographic model to assess the macroeconomic impact of covid-19 and to study the impact of responses such as home quarantine, school closures, social distancing, and business closures (keoghbrown et al., 2020). it shows that the pandemics may impose unprecedented economic costs on the uk economy (7-10% of gdp). whilst public actions are necessary to minimize the associated mortality, without alternative measures to reduce the scale and duration of school and business closures, the governmental economic support may be insufficient to compensate for longer term suppression of the pandemic which could generate an even greater health impact through major recession. for the south-african economy, (erero & mangalani, 2020) combine a cge model with time series models (holt-winter and sarima) to study the impact of covid-19. their results indicate significant impacts on the macroeconomic variables, employment, sector production and households’ wellbeing. as suggested by their cge model, south-african gdp, exports and private consumption would drop by about 7.10%, 13.19% and 7.10% against the baseline scenario. in examining the impact of the pandemics on the us economy, (walmsley, rose, & wei, 2021) consider three alternative scenarios of covid-19 evolution: moderate and declining; moderate and increasing; and extensive and increasing. they find that net losses for the us economy will range from usd 3.2 trillion to usd 4.8 trillion in a 2-year period. the employment decline is estimated to range from 14.7% to 23.8%. cge models are excellent tools when it comes analysis of the whole-of-economy impact. however, they may be slightly agnostic in grasping distributional impacts. in order to overcome this limitation, cge results are often used to conduct micro-simulations based on survey data, such as (herault, 2005). this requires a structural compatibility of the cge macro-model and the microsimulation model. in the case when long-term inter-generational effects are the main object of study, many economists prefer to use overlapping generation (olg) models. for instance, (gagnon, johannsen, & lopez-salido, 2020) use an olg model to explore the implications of mortality during covid19 pandemics for the us productive capacity. their model suggests that the covid-19 associated mortality will have small effects on output and factor prices for the reason that it is small in proportion to the population and skewed toward retired individuals. however, when combined with the broader economic impact, the covid-19 effects on the productive capacity are economically significant and persisting for decades. methodology our analysis of the general equilibrium impact of covid-19 in ageand gender-perspective stems from the national transfer accounts for moldova (nta)1. the most important result from the nta moldova is a constricted and short lifecycle surplus of moldovans (figure 1). with consumption age profiles almost identical for men and women, the striking differences in the lifecycles of men and women in moldova being explained by the labor income differences (gagauz, 2021). in turn, the labor income differential comes from significant gender gaps in employment rate (as shown in 1 the first-ever nta for moldova were built in 2016 by the moldovan think-tank expert-grup with the unfpa moldova support. in 2020 the nta was updated for the years 2018-2019 and improved. 4 theoretical and scientifical journal figure 2) and in average wage (figure 3). these gaps have been measured using two alternative sources (households budget survey and labor force survey), with broadly concurring results. figure 1. annual consumption and labor income by ages and sexes in moldova, 2019, thousand mdl/capita source: calculated by author as part of the nta moldova 2019 exercise. 5 economy and sociology figure 2. raw (dots) and smoothed (lines) employment rate in the year 2019 by ages, sexes and sources of data, % of the group population source: calculated by author as part of the nta moldova 2019 exercise. figure 3. raw (dots) and smoothed (lines) average annual wage in the year 2019 by ages, sexes and sources of data, mdl/capita source: calculated by author as part of the nta moldova 2019 exercise. large gender gaps in employment and wages persist across sectors. transport, construction and ict activities are dominated by men, while education, horeca1, health and financial sectors feature women as main employees. the ict is quite young and men-dominated whereas the agricultural sector relies on relatively older employees of both sexes (figure 4). public administration, trade, industry and services to business feature more even distributions of employees. wages of men are significantly higher than wages of women for all ages in agriculture, constructions, ict, trade and 1 hotels, restaurants and cafeteria. 6 theoretical and scientifical journal transport (figure 5). women wages are typically higher in the education and financial sectors. among all sectors, industry and public administration are the most egalitarian in terms of the gender pay gap. figure 4. estimated shares in the total persons employed in 2019, by age, sex and economic activities*, % of total persons employed** note: * adm – public administration, agr – agriculture, com – trade, con – constructions, edu – education, fin – financial sector, hlt – health protection, hor – hotels, restaurants and cafeteria, ict – ict sector, ind – industry, spe – services provided to persons, spr – services provided to businesses, tra – transport. ** for each economic activity, shares by sex and age sum up to 100%. source: calculated by author based on the households budget survey 2019. figure 5. average net annual wage in 2019 by age, sex and economic activity*, mdl note: * see note in figure 4. source: calculated by author based on the households budget survey 2019. the different age and sex profiles of employment and pay by economic sectors is the key reason why the hypothesis of covid-19 having differentiated age and sex impact is worthwhile being assessed within a cge-based economic analysis. 7 economy and sociology in line with tradition, to get the age and gender-disaggregated distributional effects of covid19, either the cge results need to be used for micro-simulations or the cge should be of an olg model. however, both options involve conceptual and computational complexities, therefore we preferred a simpler solution. our approach has been to integrate microeconomic and demographic data in the cge macroeconomic framework. instead of using one “representative household” for the entire economy in cge model (as is most often the case in the economic literature), we replaced it with a more refined structure of households. we used the nta results and introduced in the moldovan cge model 91 female and 91 male “households” representing the moldovan population from age 0 to 90 years. these are still “representative” households, but they represent distinct age and sex cohorts, rather than one amalgamated household. we have also disaggregated the labor factor, by introducing 76 age subcategories for male labor and 76 age categories for female labor (from 15 to 90 years in both cases) for each of the 13 economic sectors included in the model. in addition, we have the interhousehold private transfers introduced in the cge/sam (united nations, 2013). to do this, we have computed a 182x182 submatrix reflecting transfers from every age category to every age category disaggregated by sexes. we have employed the ifpri standard cge model, which is fully documented in (lofgren, lee harris, & robinson, 2002). this is a static cge and results should be interpreted as giving the long-run magnitude of impact of the initial shock against the baseline. while omitting the details related to transitional path to the new equilibrium and not incorporating firms’ responses, the advantage of this approach is a better understanding of the socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability to crisis. in the context of the static cge model we used, the only optimization decision that households take is related to the inter-temporal optimization of the consumption, i.e., allocating their income for goods and services to maximize their utility. any age cohort, including children, are assumed able to realize and maximize the utility. this approach is not less realistic than the textbook assumption that any aggregate category of households, in general, is able to optimize anything deliberately, be it intraor inter-temporally. the model has been calibrated to the moldovan economic data based on a 307 rows x 307 columns social accounting matrix (sam) for 2018. the core of the sam is an input-output (io) table for the year 2014, the latest for which official data are available. we have mathematically augmented and adjusted the 2014 io table to fit the 2018 key macroeconomic data using a crossentropy minimization method (sherman, moataz, & andrea, 2001). the cge model used for this research includes 13 economic activities presented in the note under the figure 4. this selection represents the trade-off between the need to model the sector-level impact of the covid-19 restrictions and the limitations imposed by data and by the computational complexity. scenarios shockand policy-related scenarios simulated based on the cge model are presented below. covid-19 economic shocks domestic administrative restrictions (dom) on 17 of march 2020, moldova adopted administrative measures restricting the level of economic activities in a number of economic sectors for 60 days. on may 15 some of the measures have been extended until june 30 and some until mid-september. as economic consequence, the efficiency of using the available production factors by various activities declined proportionally to the length and depth of restrictions. we use the efficiency parameter 𝛼𝑎 𝑣𝑎 of the ces production function in the cge model to simulate the restrictions. in each of the 13 economic activities, the efficiency parameter has been “shocked” by rates corresponding to changes in efficiency. the general 8 theoretical and scientifical journal loss in efficiency is assumed 16.7% (= 60 days of inactivity / 365 days). the more-disaggregated sectors have been affected at different rates and duration, resulting in different rates of loss for the 13 modelled activities. in addition, some sectors (such as agriculture) have not been direct subject to administrative restrictions (table 1). decline of domestic exports (expo) the covid-related decline in external economic activity resulted in lower demand for moldovan exports. the level of exports is endogenous in the cge model, so we do not model the reduction of exports per se, but instead use the same efficiency parameter. reduction in foreign demand can be viewed as occurring due to external ‘administrative’ restrictions. we use the data on exports for 2020 to calibrate the losses in efficiency by economic activities due to contraction in external demand. this method accounts for the fact that different economic activities depend differently on foreign markets. the losses in efficiency are presented in corresponding column of table 1. table 1 activities’ losses in efficiency associated to scenarios dom, expo and all, % activity dom expo all agr 0.0 1.1 1.1 ind 0.0 4.6 4.6 con 5.0 0.1 5.1 com 7.4 0.0 7.4 tra 10.0 10.1 19.5 hor 16.7 0.9 17.4 itc -5.0 1.2 -3.8 fin 5.0 0.0 5.0 spr 5.0 0.9 5.0 spe 16.7 2.0 18.4 adm 5.0 0.2 5.1 edu 19.5 0.0 19.5 hlt 2.0 0.0 2.0 source: author’s estimates. decline of processed reexports (rexp) some activities in moldova (such as production of electric equipment) function in a dual regime, by producing goods and by providing processing services of raw materials provided by foreigners. in their case, the covid impact also translated through reduction of foreign orders for processing works. as data suggest, their losses represent around 3 months of the normal activity. we model the impact through activity-level parameter 𝜃𝑎,𝑐 the yield of the output of the product c per unit of activity a. the product c in this case refers to the service of processing raw material provided by foreign owners. changes in terms of trade (tot) covid-induced realignment of prices on the global markets improved the moldovan terms of trade. according to official data, in 2020 the price of the moldovan agricultural exports gained around 10%, while industrial goods – around 3%. in case of imports, agricultural goods lost around 1%, while industrial goods – around 3%. these developments compensated the negative shocks to some extent. reduction in remittances (remit) according to the balance of payments, the remittances declined 3%. for lack of other details, we apply a uniform adjustment rate to the income from remittances in all modelled households. the differentiated response is thus expected to come from different shares of remittances in their income. 9 economy and sociology all economic shocks (acronym all) this scenario includes all domestic and foreign shocks as defined above. in this scenario the efficiency losses from restrictive measures domestically interact with losses from external slump in demand. for simplicity, we assumed that losses interact in a multiplicative manner. the values of the combined losses are presented in the last column in table 1. policy responses we simulated the impact of four key policy responses that moldovan government adopted in 2020 and of one alternative policy package: • vat: reduction of the statutory vat rate by 5% points for the horeca companies. • med: one-time personal indemnity for the medical personnel infected by covid-19. this response is likely to have differentiated impact by both age and sex, considering the structure of employment by age and sexes in the health protection sector (figure 6). • subs: subsidies to mandatory fringe benefits of the personnel sent in technical unemployment in the economic activities that have been subject to restrictive administrative measures. • pol: this policy scenario includes each of the three policy responses above + all. • pol1: this scenario models an alternative policy, which encompasses the med and the subs responses above, and a 1 percent point vat reduction applied uniformly to all economic sectors (not only to horeca). in addition, this scenario simulates structural reforms and firms-level responses associated with a 5% reduction in trade and transport margin + all. macroeconomic and factor market closure rules the following additional hypotheses have been adopted: 1. there is unemployment in the moldova economy, and wages adjust to equilibrate the labor supply with demand. this is plausible especially as many moldovan migrants returned home. 2. the exchange rate is freely floating. this hypothesis is pertinent considering the inflation targeting strategy of the national bank of moldova. 3. budgetary deficit is flexible, adjusting to the level of governmental revenues and expenditures. this is a plausible hypothesis considering the exceptional circumstances affecting the economy. 4. investments are driven by savings which are computed as fixed share of the disposable income, based on marginal propensity to save (sam-based calculation). figure 6. distribution of medical workers by ages and sexes, persons source: calculated by author based on households budget survey 2019. 10 theoretical and scientifical journal simulation results macroeconomic and sector level impact. as shown in table 2, covid-19 is likely to have inflicted large losses to moldovan economy. in the all scenario, the gdp declines 11% against the baseline scenario. administrative restrictions (dom) cost the gdp around 7.5%, while the external shocks on the domestic exports (expo) – around 4%. losses caused by reduction in processed reexports (rexp) represent around 1%, while expected reduction in remittances (remit) – 0.1%. compensatory development in the moldova’s terms of trade is significant (+1.1% to gdp), however, not enough to compensate losses. except the terms of trade scenario (tot), the private consumption and fixed capital investment decline in all scenarios, with domestic administrative restrictions causing the heaviest hit to the capital investment. under the remit scenario, the exports grow, while imports recede, due to depreciation of the moldovan currency following smaller inflows of hard currency from moldovan migrants (table 3). the transport sector is the most affected by covid-19, even though the administrative restrictions it faced have not been the most severe. the transport sector output declines by 23% (table 4), reflecting the net effect of both reduced domestic and foreign supplies of goods. the level of activity in the horeca sector declines by 23%, while the sector of services rendered to population – by 14%. the output declines at significant rates even in sectors which have been not directly subjects of administrative restrictions: agricultural output declines by 8%, while industrial output and the volume of construction works – by 13%. this is the combined result of the reduction in external demand and of domestic intermediate demand from sectors directly affected by administrative restrictions. the impact of the policy response is remarkably shallow. the vat response has negligible impact, which is of no surprise considering the dramatic fall in demand of horeca services. the impacts of the indemnities paid by the government to health workers affected by covid-19 and of the subsidies to companies sending the staff in technical unemployment are more visible, however, the resources allocated to them are very small. combined, the three policy measures have a very modest compensatory effect: the gdp under the pol scenario deviates from the all scenario by only 0.1% points. the compensatory impact of the alternative policy scenario, which combines the indemnities, the subsidies, a more modest but more egalitarian reduction in the vat rate and structural policy is by far more significant in macroeconomic terms. the pol1 scenario costs the budget even less than pol scenario and it has a positive impact on the overall economic situation table 2 impact on real gdp and main components, % deviations from the baseline economic shocks policy responses do m exp o rex p to t remi t al l va t me d sub s pol pol 1 absorption -6.0 -3.3 -1.1 1.6 -0.4 -8.8 -8.8 -8.3 -8.4 -8.3 -6.0 private consumption -4.5 -3.4 -1.1 1.7 -0.9 -7.9 -7.9 -6.8 -7.0 -6.7 -4.3 fixed capital investment -11.8 -4.4 -1.4 2.1 0.6 14.7 14.7 15.3 -15.3 15.3 -12.3 exports -10.2 -6.8 -2.3 0.4 0.3 17.7 17.7 18.1 -17.9 18.0 -15.0 imports -5.1 -3.4 -1.2 2.1 -0.6 -7.8 -7.8 -7.0 -7.1 -6.9 -5.4 gdp -7.5 -4.0 -0.9 1.1 -0.1 11.0 11.0 10.9 -10.9 10.9 -9.1 source: cge model results. 11 economy and sociology table 3 impact on key macroeconomic indicators, % deviations from the baseline economic shocks policy responses do m exp o rex p to t remi t al l va t me d sub s po l pol 1 rexr -2.6 1.5 0.8 -1.4 0.3 -1.6 -1.6 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1 -1.2 investment / gdp ratio -3.3 -1 -0.3 0.6 0.4 -3.7 -3.7 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.4 private savings / gdp ratio -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 trade deficit 1.7 1.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.5 2.5 budget deficit -3 -1.2 -0.3 0.4 0.3 -3.8 -3.8 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.7 source: cge model results. table 4 impact on the level of production of the key economic activities, % deviations from the baseline economic shocks policy responses dom expo rexp tot remit all vat med subs pol pol1 agr -5.2 -3.4 -0.5 1.0 -0.2 -8.0 -8.0 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -5.1 ind -7.2 -5.1 -1.3 -0.2 0.0 -13.2 -13.2 -13.2 -13.2 -13.2 -9.2 con -11.0 -4.1 -1.3 2.0 0.4 -13.7 -13.7 -14.2 -14.2 -14.2 -11.4 com -6.8 -4.3 -1.1 0.8 -0.2 -11.1 -11.1 -10.8 -10.9 -10.8 -11.8 tra -14.5 -12.2 -0.1 2.0 0.1 -23.3 -23.3 -23.3 -23.2 -23.2 -21.9 hor -21.6 -3.2 -0.4 2.7 -0.2 -22.9 -22.7 -22.5 -22.5 -22.3 -20.3 ict -0.8 -3.1 -0.6 1.4 -0.4 -3.4 -3.4 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -0.8 fin -6.4 -3.0 -0.9 1.3 -0.5 -9.2 -9.2 -8.5 -8.6 -8.5 -6.9 spr -7.1 -3.4 -0.8 1.5 -0.3 -9.9 -9.8 -9.5 -9.5 -9.4 -8.1 adm -2.8 -1.4 -0.4 0.7 -0.3 -4.1 -4.1 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7 -3.1 edu -3.9 -0.7 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 -4.3 -4.3 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.7 hlt -2.0 -0.9 -0.3 0.6 -0.2 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 -1.8 spe -13.0 -2.8 -0.4 1.7 -0.3 -14.4 -14.4 -14.2 -14.2 -14.1 -12.6 source: cge model results. distributional impact. due to reduction in economic output, the covid-19 results in reduction of income and consumption expenditures of the moldovan households. as shown in the table 5, the men of working age are hit harder by the covid-19 socioeconomic fallout than women in the same category. the male population aged 25-34 years are likely to experience the strongest decline in their total income – around 11%. in case of women population, the younger cohorts suffer bigger losses in income. total income includes not only labor income, but also social payments, transfers from other households, remittances, income from agricultural and non-agricultural entrepreneurship and so on. the labor income is the main source of income for the working age generations, the pensions – for pensioners, while public and private transfers (i.e., transfers from “parents’ households”) are for households with children. the sex-differentiated impact on the labor income can be explained two factors. first, for all ages, the men face higher exposure to potential labor market shocks due to higher enrollment rates. as seen in table 6, the labor income of men, especially those in their mid-ages, suffer contractions of around 10-11%, whereas the decline of the labor income of women in the same categories is a bit smaller. secondly, the sectors which experienced the hardest consequences of covid-19 – including transport and constructions – are dominated by middle-aged men. nonetheless, it should be mentioned that many women working in the horeca and services to population sectors also have 12 theoretical and scientifical journal suffered heavy losses in their labor income. the aggregate losses per every age category came mostly from reduction of labor demand and release of personnel. it is worthwhile mentioning that the income gender gap is not present in case of children. the population of girls and boys aged 0-14 are set to experience more or less equal reductions in their income (around 9%). the missing gap is explained by the fact that their income is completely determined by private interhousehold transfers. at the sending end, private transfers feature more or less balanced mixes of adult female and male households with resulting transfers not having any significant gender pattern. compared to younger generations, the older generations in the category of 65+ are likely to experience the smallest reduction in their incomes – around 5%. their expenditures rely more on public pensions as main source of income and, to a lower extent, on private transfers from younger cohorts. covid-19 is not expected to have significant implications on public pensions and other social transfers. this is why, in the case of pensioners, as in case of children, the covid-19 socioeconomic impact does not have any significant gender pattern. the evolution of the consumption expenditures reflects the total income pattern. with a linear dependency between the level of total income and level of consumption expenditures, the consumption adjusted proportionately to the losses in total income of every age group. again, we find little evidence that the policy package designed by the government in the year 2020 has had any meaningful impact compensating the welfare losses. at the same time, the proposed alternative policy, provides a more tangible relief to all ages and to both men and women. the reduction in transaction costs throughout the economy significantly increases the level of activity, enhances the demand for labor factor across all sectors (except trade) and results in increase labor income for all ages, men and women alike. table 5 impact on total income by population groups and scenarios, % deviations from the baseline group economic shocks policy responses dom expo rexp tot remit all vat med subs pol pol1 male 0-14 -5.1 -4.0 -1.3 2.1 -0.7 -8.7 -8.7 -7.7 -7.9 -7.6 -4.7 male 15-24 -5.4 -4.1 -1.4 2.2 -0.6 -9.0 -9.0 -8.1 -8.3 -8.1 -5.0 male 25-34 -6.8 -5.0 -1.7 2.5 -0.4 -10.9 -10.9 -10.3 -10.4 -10.2 -6.8 male 35-44 -6.6 -4.8 -1.6 2.4 -0.5 -10.5 -10.5 -9.8 -9.9 -9.8 -6.4 male 45-54 -6.5 -4.7 -1.6 2.4 -0.4 -10.4 -10.4 -9.7 -9.8 -9.6 -6.2 male 55-64 -5.1 -3.6 -1.2 1.9 -0.9 -8.5 -8.5 -7.4 -7.6 -7.4 -4.4 male 65+ -1.9 -1.5 -0.5 1.0 -2.0 -4.9 -4.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -1.5 female 0-14 -5.1 -4.0 -1.3 2.1 -0.7 -8.7 -8.7 -7.7 -7.9 -7.7 -4.8 female 15-24 -4.7 -3.7 -1.2 2.0 -0.8 -8.1 -8.1 -7.0 -7.2 -7.0 -4.2 female 25-34 -4.0 -3.2 -1.1 1.8 -1.1 -7.3 -7.3 -6.0 -6.1 -6.0 -3.5 female 35-44 -3.3 -3.4 -1.1 1.8 -0.8 -6.6 -6.6 -5.3 -5.7 -5.2 -2.6 female 45-54 -2.8 -3.2 -1.1 1.7 -0.7 -5.9 -5.9 -4.6 -5.1 -4.6 -1.9 female 55-64 -2.1 -2.3 -0.8 1.3 -1.3 -5.1 -5.1 -3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -1.5 female 65+ -1.9 -1.6 -0.5 1.0 -2.0 -4.9 -4.9 -2.8 -2.9 -2.8 -1.5 source: cge model results. 13 economy and sociology table 6. impact on income from labor by population groups and scenarios, % deviations from the baseline group economic shocks policy responses dom expo rexp tot remit all vat med subs pol pol1 male 15-24 -5.5 -4.5 -1.5 2.2 -0.2 -9.1 -9.1 -8.8 -8.9 -8.7 -5.8 male 25-34 -6.7 -5.4 -1.8 2.4 0.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.0 -11.0 -10.9 -7.7 male 35-44 -6.6 -5.3 -1.7 2.4 0.0 -10.8 -10.8 -10.7 -10.7 -10.6 -7.3 male 45-54 -7.1 -5.2 -1.8 2.4 0.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -11.0 -7.3 male 55-64 -6.7 -4.7 -1.6 2.2 0.0 -10.3 -10.3 -10.2 -10.2 -10.1 -6.3 male 65+ -2.0 -3.4 -1.1 1.9 -0.2 -4.5 -4.5 -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 -1.4 female 15-24 -5.4 -4.7 -1.7 2.3 -0.1 -9.2 -9.2 -9.0 -9.1 -8.9 -5.6 female 25-34 -3.1 -4.1 -1.4 1.7 -0.3 -6.8 -6.8 -6.4 -6.5 -6.3 -3.8 female 35-44 -1.7 -3.7 -1.4 1.6 -0.3 -5.2 -5.2 -4.8 -4.8 -4.7 -2.1 female 45-54 -0.5 -3.1 -1.2 1.3 -0.2 -3.3 -3.3 -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -0.5 female 55-64 -0.6 -3.0 -1.1 1.5 -0.2 -3.2 -3.2 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -0.3 female 65+ -0.2 -3.1 -1.0 1.7 -0.3 -2.8 -2.7 -2.3 -2.4 -2.2 -0.1 source: cge model results. conclusions as suggested by cge model, the cumulative effect of the covid-19 economic shocks represents around 10-11% of the gdp. this is largely in line with the real gdp reduction that moldova went through in 2020: -7.5 percent, against the 4.5% growth expected before covid-19 (and drought) hit the moldovan economy. sectors dominated by smes suffer the heaviest economic blows. the transport sector is expected to suffer the most significant reduction in output level (more than 23% against the baseline). it employs men of all age categories, with mid-age adults dominating. horeca sector also suffered comparable losses, while the services provided to population is set to decline 14%. opposite to transport sector, these two typically employ women. the public economy sectors (including public administration, health and education) are less vulnerable to covid-19. again, these results are fully consistent with the effective figures seen in the 2020 statistics. reduction in output results in reduction of labor demand and, in some cases, in downward adjustments of the wages. this is the key cause of significant welfare losses due to covid-19. when all domestic and external shocks combine, men of working age suffer the heaviest loss (around 11%) in their labor income. among other age categories of women, those in the 15-24 age category suffer the largest reduction of wage income (around 10%), which is explained by the relatively high share of employment of women in this age group in horeca and population services sectors. real data show no significant reduction in the level of employment in general, however, there is a dramatic two-fold increase in the underemployment rate, which is consistent with our findings. reflecting the income contraction of the breadwinning age categories, the consumption expenditures for other ages adjust accordingly. children’ consumption declines because of reduced level of private transfers from adult generations, for whom wages and remittances are the main sources of income and financing transfers to younger generations. the older generations relying on public pensions are relatively better sheltered against the covid-19 socioeconomic effects. indeed, according to budgetary reports for 2020, pensions and other social payments did not suffer reductions. the policy response has had relatively low compensatory effect. the vat reduction for the horeca sector does not have a sizable economic effect, even on the sector itself. indeed, the reduction in fiscal burden is of little relevance when the demand itself has been absent. the indemnities paid for medical workers and subsidies on the mandatory social and medical contributions related to staff in technical unemployment have more prominent impacts than the 14 theoretical and scientifical journal reduced vat for horeca, but, still, are negligible considering the small amounts of public resources behind them. we simulated a package of alternative policy measures. this package includes the indemnities for medical workers and job subsidies but treat vat reduction in a different manner – a more modest 1 percent reduction in the statutory vat rate is applied but all activities are allowed to benefit of it. in addition, this package mimics a structural policy resulting in a 5% reduction of trade margin and transport margin for all sectors and all types of supplies (domestic, import, export). this reduction can be achieved, for instance, by improving the competitive and anti-trust policies across all sectors and does not require significant public expenses. the trade sector has been found to be the only sector losing from this alternative policy package, while others benefit greatly. this alternative package halves the loss in gdp, yet it is not sufficient to fully compensate the loss, considering the depth, magnitude and time extent of covid-19. this result is quite significant and suggests that distributional impact of covid-19 would be economically more efficient and socially more just to be addressed by a more balanced mix of fiscal and structural policies. the results of this research suggest that the government should consider how its policy targets the smes in the most exposed sectors (transport, services, horeca). by their very nature, many of these measures adopted so far have been designed to address the relatively large companies, rather than the smallest ones, which suffer particularly severe forms of liquidity crisis. references 1. biroul național de statistică al republicii moldova. (2015). conturi naționale 2014. chișinău. 2. biroul național de statistică al republicii moldova. (2015). conturile naționale ale republicii moldova 2014. chișinău. 3. erero, j., & makananisa, m. p. (2020). impact of covid-19 on the south african economy: a cge, holt-winter and sarima model’s analysis. turkish economy review, 7(4). 4. gagauz, o. (2021). de ce femeile au venituri mai mici decat barbatii pe tot parcursul vietii? chisinau: centrul analitic independent expert-grup. 5. gagnon, e., johannsen, b., & lopez-salido, d. (2020). supply-side effects of pandemic mortality: insights from an overlapping-generations model. washington, d.c.: federal reserve board. 6. herault, n. (2005). building and linking a microsimulation model to a cge model: the south african microsimulation model. centre d'economie du development. 7. keogh-brown, m. r., jensen, h. t., edmunds, w., & smith, r. d. (2020). the impact of the covid19, associated behaviours and policies on the uk economy: a computable general equilibrium model. ssm population health, 12, p. 100667. 8. lofgren, h., lee harris, r., & robinson, s. (2002). a standard computable general equilibrium (cge) model in gams. washington: international food policy research institute. 9. sherman, r., moataz, e.-s., & andrea, c. (2001). updating and estimating a social account matrix using cross entropy methods. ifrpi. 10. united nations. (2013). national transfers account. manual. "measuring and analysing the generational economy" . new york: un. 11. walmsley, t., rose, a., & wei, d. (2021, 5). the impacts of the coronavirus on the economy of the united states. economics of disaster and climate change, pp. 1-52. received 02 november 2021 accepted 10 december 2021 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 36 efficiency of operation of agrarian human capital tatsiana tsetsiarynets, phd, associate professor, belarusian state agrarian technical university https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1058-4110 e-mail: tsetsiarynets@bsatu.by received 3 march 2022 accepted for publication 31 may 2022 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1058-4110 https://e.mail.ru/compose/?mailto=mailto%3atsetsiarynets@bsatu.by economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 37 abstract the article substantiates the identification of a specific form of human capital – agrarian and gives its author's interpretation. in determining its quantitative value, the advantages of using the income assessment method in comparison with the cost (investment) approach are proven. the latter circumstance is the basis for the development of methods to assess the effectiveness of its functioning in the agrarian sphere, based on the acme technology. the use of the acmeological approach is conditioned by the necessity of a complex analysis of the process of human capital formation in the agricultural sector of belarus. this approach considers an individual's creative and purposeful possibilities and achievements. a system of interrelated indicators, which allows to determine the effectiveness of the use of agrarian human capital, is proposed. the main aim of the research is to develop a methodical approach to evaluate the efficiency of the functioning of agrarian human capital. the article was prepared with the use of general scientific research methods and private approaches to solving problems. in particular, the methodology of analysis, synthesis, graphic and tabular methods were used. practical testing of the proposed assessment methodology indicates a decrease in the efficiency of functioning of agrarian human capital. this is due to the prevailing dynamics of growth of quantitative indicators compared to qualitative parameters. the proposed methodological approach to assessing the effectiveness of the functioning of agrarian human capital can be used by the representatives of management bodies, researchers, to develop program documents to form state agrarian and regional policy. keywords: agrarian human capital, cost, efficiency, functioning, acmeological approach, productivity. articolul fundamentează identificarea unei forme specifice a capitalului uman, și anume a capitalului uman agrar și prezintă viziunea autorului asupra acestuia. la determinarea valorii sale cantitative au fost relevate avantajele utilizării metodei de evaluare a veniturilor în comparație cu metoda de evaluare a costurilor (investițională). aceasta din urmă se află la baza metodologiei de evaluare a eficienței funcționării sale în sectorul agrar, bazată pe tehnologia acme. utilizarea abordării acmeologice a fost determinată de necesitatea analizei complexe a procesului de formare a capitalului uman în sectorul agrar din belarus. această abordare ia în considerare abilitățile edificatoare și creativeale individului, capacitatea acestuia de ași atinge scopurile propuse. se propune un sistem de indicatori interrelaționați, care permite determinarea eficacității utilizării capitalului uman agrar. scopul principal al cercetării constă în dezvoltarea unei abordări metodologice pentru evaluarea eficienței funcționării capitalului uman agrar. în procesul de elaborare a articolulului au fost utilizate metode științifice generale de cercetare, abordări particulare de rezolvare a sarcinilor. în special, au fost aplicate metode de analiză, sinteză, metode grafice, tabulare. testarea practică a metodologiei de evaluare propusă denotă o scădere a eficienței funcționării capitalului uman agrar. acest lucru este condiționat de dinamica de creștere predominantă a indicatorilor cantitativi în comparație cu parametrii calitativi. abordarea metodologică propusă pentru evaluarea eficienței funcționării capitalului uman agrar poate fi utilizată de reprezentanții organelor guvernamentale, de cercetători, pentru elaborarea documentelor de politici, care vizează formarea politicii agrare și regionale de stat. cuvinte cheie: capital uman agrar, cost, eficiență, funcționare, abordare acmeologică, productivitate. аннотация. в статье обосновано выделение специфической формы человеческого капитала – аграрного и дано его авторское трактование. при определении его количественной величины доказаны преимущества использования доходного способа оценки в сравнении с затратным (инвестиционным) подходом. последнее обстоятельство заложено в основу разработки методики оценки эффективности его функционирования в аграрной сфере, базирующейся на акметехнологии. использование акмеологического подхода обусловлено economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 38 необходимостью комплексного анализа процесса образования человеческого капитала в аграрном секторе беларуси. этот подход учитывает созидательные, творческие возможности и целедостижения индивида. предложена система взаимосвязанных показателей, которая позволяет определить результативность использования аграрного человеческого капитала. основной целью проведенных исследований является разработка методического подхода оценки эффективности функционирования аграрного человеческого капитала. статья подготовлена с использованием общенаучных методов исследования, частных подходов решения поставленных задач. в частности, нашли применение методология анализа, синтеза, графического, табличного способов. практическая апробация предложенной методики оценки свидетельствует о снижении эффективности функционирования аграрного человеческого капитала. это обусловлено превалирующей динамикой роста количественных индикаторов в сравнении с качественными параметрами. предложенный методический подход оценки эффективности функционирования аграрного человеческого капитала может быть использован представителями органов управления, исследователями для разработки программных документов, нацеленных на формирование государственной аграрной и региональной политики. ключевые слова: аграрный человеческий капитал, стоимость, эффективность, функционирование, акмеологический подход, продуктивность. jel classification: b41, с13, с18, е22, е24 udc: 631.158:331.101.262 introduction the formation of a knowledge-intensive economy is conditioned by the necessity of increasing the human capital in the composition of the national wealth. in modern conditions, this resource is characterized by its inexhaustibility and renewability and predetermines the prospects and directions of development not only of the republic of belarus, but also of the countries of eastern europe. one of the engines of sustainable development of these states is the agricultural sector, which provides a high level of food security and sustained growth in exports. the preservation of the existing socioeconomic trends and the creation of conditions for progressive growth are conditioned by the state and effectiveness of the use of human capital in the agro-industrial complex of these countries. the limited resource provision of the agrarian sector, specifics of its functioning, insufficient investment resources actualize the task of searching new ways of innovative transformations of the countries of eastern europe. in this connection, the improvement of methodological foundations for assessing the functioning efficiency of agrarian human capital is an objective prerequisite for finding reserves and determining the directions of sustainable socio-economic development of the countries of the eastern commonwealth. analysis of recent studies and publications theoretical and methodological issues of human capital development management in the agrarian sphere were addressed by the leading researchers in belarus and abroad (гусаков, 2020; бельский, тригубович, 2017; кристиневич, 2017; богатырева, 2018; латов, 2021; tsaurkubule, 2016; schultz, 1960; becker, 1962). the variety of methodological approaches to determining the quantitative value of human capital generates a variety of methods for assessing the effectiveness of its functioning (гусаков, 2021; габидулин, киршин, лукин, 2020). the lack of a single methodological solution provokes a multivariate interpretation of the obtained results. the problem is complicated by the lack of practical methodological developments in determining the performance of human capital, taking into account industry specifics (воронин, чупина, воронина, 2018). despite the wide coverage of the economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 39 issues of functioning and development of human capital in the open press, the problems of capitalization of the agrarian human potential require further scientific research. sources of data and methods used the research methodology is based on the monographic study and interpretation of previously obtained results, reflecting trends, prospects and specifics of human capital development in the agrarian sector. the subject area of research predetermined the choice of methods and tools based on the inductivity of research approaches, quantitative analysis and qualitative synthesis of input information. in order to increase the reliability of the obtained results, in the process of research we used such methods as review, continuity of observation, analysis of the stability of input data, monitoring of the close interaction of statistical indicators, and the selection of contradictory data. the methodology of collecting the input materials for the study is based on the use of official documents, collections, bulletins of the national statistical committee of the republic of belarus. research findings and discussion the priorities of the global economy indicate the limited impact of resource advantages. it determines the dominant role of innovation and technological factors, which include the level of accumulated human capital. given the low resource intensity of the domestic economy, the analysis of methodological approaches to assessing the functioning and development of human capital seems particularly relevant. one of the advantages of human capital is its inexhaustibility, which is due to the quantity and quality of its representatives. human society, in its narrowest sense, is an integrated set of people. the level of its development is conditioned by the abilities of individuals. the interaction of the latter factors ensures the accumulation of individual potential and its collective increment. this circumstance characterizes the multiplicity of human capital as the ability of its expanded generation. the unique ability of self-reproduction distinguishes this form of capital from other forms of capital. the available material and technical opportunities, socio-economic conditions and institutional environment contribute to the intensity of accumulation and increment of human capital. its source is concentrated in the human being himself. this generates the circular reproduction of human capital on a simple or extended basis. the study, adaptation and development of methodological approaches to measure the effectiveness of human capital functioning in the agrarian sector are conditioned by the objective necessity of branch development, as well as by the specific features of the research object. industrial and institutional transformations penetrating into all spheres of society also affect the agricultural sector, which contributes to the emergence of a new form of human capital – the agrarian. its distinctive feature is the spatial and sectoral projection of the formation of initial human potential transformed, taking into account demographic characteristics of the local population, educational level of employees, state of the social infrastructure of rural areas, parameters of the production potential of agricultural sector organizations, investment security and innovation saturation of the agro-industrial complex, into agrarian human capital. specialization and integration of agro-industrial production, which is a consequence of technological changes, act as a reason for increasing the knowledge-intensive capitalization of assets accumulated in human resources. intellectual reproduction of the latter contributes to the formation of the surplus product, the value of which is more filled with knowledge (intellectual product) than with physical labor (material capital). the concept of agrarian human capital goes beyond the territorial-quantitative assessment of population and is projected into the plane of agro-industrial production. in the context of the above, agrarian human capital is understood as a quantitative and qualitative measure of the creation of economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 40 surplus value of agrarian production, formed under the influence of a certain socio-economic formation, characterized by a constant movement and increment, providing the creation of an innovative product in material and non-material embodiment (гануш, тетеринец, 2022). peculiarities of the formation and development of agrarian human capital actualize the task of improving methods of management of this process. socio-economic, technical-technological and institutional transformations in the agricultural sector contribute to the emergence of scientific schools, which determine the theoretical directions and methodological approaches of management. aggregation of the conducted studies and their refraction in the plane of agroindustrial production allow us to identify the main stages of transformation of conceptual aspects of human capital management depending on the stages of socio-economic and technical-technological development of the agrarian sector (figure 1). figure 1: transformation of the nature of agrarian human capital at different stages of industrial development. resource demandproposal agrarian human capital agrarian period industrial period post-industrial period capital nano-industrial period source: compiled based on (зикунова, 2016). conceptual approaches to the management of human capital development form theoretical postulates and modifications of the categorical apparatus. further, there is a transformation of methodological approaches to assess the effectiveness of its functioning. in the theory and practice of economic analysis there is a sufficient number of methodologies that contribute to such research. sector specifics of the object of the research, peculiarity of conditions of formation and development, and non-triviality of capitalization mechanisms predetermine the need to develop new approaches to measure the effectiveness of agrarian human capital functioning, which will comprehensively take into account the relationship of the above-mentioned factors. the objective condition for solving this problem is to determine the quantitative value of agrarian human capital from the position of its functional refraction. the latter circumstance is the resulting factor of the transformation of human potential into capital and is determined by the amount of income received from its use. in this context, the use of the expenditure method is inexpedient, which is caused by a rather tentative ability of the current investment costs to reflect the possibilities of capitalization of human potential. there is no denying the importance and necessity of such investments; however, it is initially somewhat premature to accept them as a positive result. in particular, as studies have shown, the level of literacy of the population weakly correlates with the economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 41 ability to capitalize on the knowledge gained (попов, 2020). in other words, the number of schools, colleges and universities, acting as one of the main elements of investment spending and forming the basis of human potential, all other things being equal, is not an indication that the knowledge received in them will be transformed into capital. as a result, we can conclude that the income method of cost estimation of human capital is the most effective from the position of measuring the efficiency of functioning. this method is also not without some disadvantages. its main advantage is the possibility to determine the total value, which shows the level of capitalization of human potential. the author's understanding of human capital is to consider not only the total of accumulated knowledge, skills, qualifications, health and other factors, but also the value added, which can be transformed into financial and non-financial wealth. despite the high importance of the latter factor, its quantitative assessment is challenging because of the high differentiation of approaches revealing its essence. as a consequence, statistical analysis becomes virtually impossible, which is complicated by the peculiarities of the territorial and sectoral approach. in these circumstances, the most practice-oriented solution is the assessment of human capital in the agricultural sector through the prism of received incomes. current research in this area encounters a number of problems of statistical analysis of data due to the intersection of sectoral and territorial planes: • the spatial and sectoral projection of agrarian human capital is disclosed in the context of rural areas, accumulating an integrated set of human resources and the focus of agrarian activities; • aggregation of sources of income of the rural population for the purpose of an integrated assessment of agrarian human capital. it is proposed to use the value of disposable resources as a generalizing initial indicator, which includes not only money, but also the value of consumed food products produced in private subsidiary plots, excluding material costs of their production, as well as the value of benefits and payments received in kind, which is most typical of rural areas (тетеринец, 2021). the proposed approach to the assessment of agrarian human capital has a theoretical and methodological research base and is based on official statistical data. it should be noted that the number of rural residents is identical to the number of household members, making the agrarian human capital assessment comparable (table 1). table 1. indicators of agrarian human capital indicators period 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 disposable resources of households in rural areas, rubles per month 724,7 773 855,1 995,8 1089,5 1207,7 number of households in rural areas 1009184 1004002 998847 993718 992742 992742 calculated value of agrarian human capital in current prices, million rubles 8776,3 9313,1 10249,4 11874,5 12979,1 14387,2 calculated value of the agrarian human capital in constant prices of 2015, million rubles 8776,3 8170,7 8398,9 9065,9 9618,8 10075,2 note: compiled by the author (тетеринец, 2021; социальное положение, 2021; число и состав домашних хозяйств, 2020). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 42 the calculated value of human capital in the agricultural sector of the belarusian economy is 14387.2 million rubles and increased almost 1.6 times during the period under study. the trend of its change is due to two interrelated but multidirectional vectors: a significant increase in the disposable resources of households in rural settlements with a simultaneous decline in the rural population (figure 2). figure 2. dynamics of the estimated value of human capital in the agricultural sector, million rubles. source: own calculations. the elimination of inflationary fluctuations allows us to obtain a comparable estimate of the value of the agrarian human capital. using the index of changes in real disposable income in prices of 2015 allows us to obtain its value in constant prices. the calculations show that in the period under study, the comparable value of the agrarian human capital increased by 1.2 times, which reflects its qualitative growth. determination of the quantitative value of human capital forms a methodological platform for measuring its functioning efficiency. the comparison of the obtained assessment with other macroand meso-indicators allows studying the dynamics of its quantitative changes, identifying qualitative shifts, and determining perspective directions of development. taking the need for a qualitative assessment of the efficiency of agricultural human capital functioning as a basis, it is advisable to use the methodology of its calculation, based on the comparison of qualitative indicators. the latter allows determining the ratio of the results obtained at a certain point in time, determined by the initial value of the evaluated parameter. in the context of the above, it is proposed to use the following system of indicators, comprehensively reflecting the relationship between changes in qualitative macro-criteria and the size of agrarian human capital: • human capital efficiency coefficient ( ), which is calculated as the ratio of gross value added of agriculture to the value of agricultural human capital. this allows us to determine the real return on its use, which is expressed by the amount of newly created value. • the coefficient of prolonged efficiency of human capital ( ), which is calculated as the ratio of the growth of gross value added of agriculture to the value of agricultural human capital. this indicator is an additional indicator and reflects the real contribution of human capital, taking into account the time lag. as the latter, it is proposed to use a four-year interval as a period reflecting the successive increase in human capital, taking into account the time spent on higher education. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 43 • productivity of human capital ( ), distinguished by the use in the denominator of the value of agrarian human capital as a qualitative parameter, reflecting the efficiency of its functioning in the context of the current socio-economic transformations. • productivity elasticity coefficient ( ), which is determined by the correlation between the growth rate of labor productivity and productivity of agrarian human capital. this aggregate index reflects the correlation of the quantitative parameter of the rural population and the qualitative indicator that contributes to the growth of human capital. • profitability elasticity coefficient ( ). it characterizes the relationship between the rate of change in the profitability of the agricultural sector and the capitalization of human capital. this indicator is defined as the ratio of the growth rate of net profit of agricultural organizations and the value of the agrarian human capital. the income level of the rural population is equivalent to the value of human capital and reflects its estimated value at a particular point in time. it is predetermined by the abilities of self-realization of an individual and the socio-economic conditions that ensure its realization. a variety of objective and subjective factors directly impact this process, contributing to the increase or decrease in the level of capitalization. the intensity of human capital accumulation becomes possible through a proportional increase in qualitative macro-metrics. the opposite situation is evidence of the predominant influence of extensive factors. the presented methodology is based on the transformation of the income approach of determining the quantitative value of agrarian human capital into the plane of evaluation criteria, characterizing the efficiency of human capital functioning. in the context of the modern theory of human capital development management, such an approach can be called an acmeological approach, which takes into account the impact of not only quantitative indicators, but also qualitative parameters [edvinsson]. the proposed system of acme-indicators allows us to comprehensively assess this relationship through the prism of the effectiveness of its functioning (table 2). table 2. acme-indicators for assessing the effectiveness of the functioning of the agrarian human capital indicators period 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 нuman capital efficiency coefficient () 0,64 0,70 0,78 0,68 0,71 0,70 the coefficient of prolonged efficiency of human capital () – – 0,206 0,203 0,201 0,142 productivity of human capital (), руб/руб 1,54 1,66 1,76 1,59 1,59 1,58 productivity elasticity coefficient () – 0,99 1,03 1,10 1,08 1,11 profitability elasticity coefficient () – -46,71 2,51 0,65 1,58 0,83 note: calculated based on (сельское хозяйство, 2021). the assessment of the obtained data allows us to note the increase in the effectiveness of the functioning of the agrarian human capital in the medium term, while there is an outlined dynamics of its decrease in the tactical plan. the combined analysis of the acme-indicators and shows a significant decrease in the return of agrarian human capital, taking into account its intellectual contribution. the steady decline in the coefficient of prolonged efficiency characterizes the decrease in the growth of added value in agriculture per ruble of economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 44 capitalized human capital. therefore, we can conclude that the educational component of agrarian human capital, as well as investment expenditures for this purpose, do not provide the proper effect. the coefficient of productivity elasticity reflects the level of intensity of development of the agrarian sector. it is demonstrated through the interaction of human and labor capitals. this index represents the percentage change in labor productivity, taking into account the change in 1 % of agrarian human capital productivity growth. calculations show its steady growth, characterizing the direct dependence of quantitative output parameters on qualitative indicators of innovative saturation of human capital. the dynamics of changes in the productivity of human capital have a reverse vector, thereby revealing a decrease in its efficiency. the combination of the existing trends allows us to state the following: the extensive nature of its accumulation occurs faster than the return on its use. conclusions the innovative vector of socio-economic development of society determines the relevance of concentration in the agricultural sphere of the intellectual component. this represents the degree of influence of human capital on the formation of the final results of agricultural organizations. this necessitates the study of the impact of the relationship of the evaluated parameters by correlating the rate of their change in the dynamics. such indicator is the coefficient of profitability elasticity. the calculations show that there is no direct correlation between the profitability of organizations and the amount of accumulated agrarian human capital. to a certain extent, this characterizes the inefficiency of the latter, as it contradicts the previously conducted 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(2021). человеческий капитал в аграрной сфере: методология и практика оценочных исследований. аграрная экономика, 10, 57-67. https://doi.org/10.29235/1818-9806-2021-10-57-67 https://doi.org/10.47612/2789-5122-2021-3-8-21 https://doi.org/10.29235/1817-7204-2020-58-3-263-2675 https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2016.7.1.29.33 https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2016.7.1.29.33 https://www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/publications/izdania/public_compilation/index_39702/ https://www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/publications/izdania/public_compilation/index_39702/ https://www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/solialnaya-sfera/naselenie-i-migratsiya/naselenie/statisticheskie-izdaniya/index_21657/ https://www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/solialnaya-sfera/naselenie-i-migratsiya/naselenie/statisticheskie-izdaniya/index_21657/ https://rep.bsatu.by/handle/doc/15351 https://doi.org/10.29235/1818-9806-2021-10-57-67 economy and sociology 21 no. 1/ 2019 modern methods of valuation of investments’ economic efficiency in the agricultural business tudor bajura1, phd, professor, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova the period of transition of the national economies from the socialist system to the market economy system is marked by a whole series of economic and social events, where investments represent a driving force for the country's economic development. the aim of this research is to provide scientific assistance on the widespread use of modern methods, recognized in developed industrialized countries, to elaborate and/or evaluate investment projects on the basis of which the indigenous agricultural sector will be able to survive in harsh conditions of often unfair competition from the part of western agricultural producers. the main research methods are qualitative and quantitative analysis of economic events, comparative and statistical comparisons, dynamics and trend studies, economic and mathematical methods to justify the economic efficiency of investments, etc. the results obtained from the out carried research are the algorithms of calculation and performance indicators for assessing the level of economic efficiency of agrarian business investments, which are successfully used in the western european countries for many years, but totally ignored within the national economy of the republic of moldova. keywords: evaluation, investment projects, modern methods, agrarian business, economic efficiency. perioada de trecere a economiei naţionale de la sistemul socialist spre sistemul economiei de piaţă este marcată de un şir de evenimente economice şi sociale, din care, în mod deosebit, evidenţiem investiţiile – forţă motrice pentru dezvoltarea economică a ţării. scopul cercetării îl constituie asigurarea asistenţei ştiinţifice privind utilizarea largă a metodelor moderne, recunoscute în ţările industrial dezvoltate, de elaborare şi evaluare a proiectelor investiţionale în baza cărora sectorul agricol autohton va fi capabil de a supravieţui în condiţiile dure de competitivitate, deseori, neloială din partea producătorilor agricoli occidentali. metodele principale de cercetare sunt: analiza calitativă şi cantitativă a evenimentelor economice, comparaţiile pare şi cele statistice, formarea rândurilor dinamice şi studiile trendurilor, metodele economico-matematice de argumentare a eficienţei economice a investiţiilor etc. în calitate de rezultate, obţinute în urma cercetărilor efectuate, pot fi numite algoritmele de calcul şi indicatorii de performanţă privind evaluarea nivelului de eficienţă economică a investiţiilor în businessul agrar, care, ani la rând, sunt utilizate cu succes în ţările vest-europene, însă, practic pe deplin, ignorate în cadrul economiei naţionale a republicii moldova. cuvinte-cheie: evaluare, proiecte investiţionale, metode moderne, business agrar, eficienţă economică. период перехода национальной экономики от социалистической системы к системе рыночной экономики отмечен целым рядом экономических и социальных событий, одним из которых следует признать инвестиции, являющиеся движущей силой экономического развития страны. цель исследования – оказать научную помощь в широком распространении современных методов, применяемых в промышленно развитых странах, для разработки и оценки инвестиционных проектов, с помощью которых местный сельскохозяйственный сектор сможет выжить в непростых условиях зачастую нелояльной конкуренции со стороны западных сельхозпроизводителей. основными методами исследования являются качественный и количественный анализ экономических событий, статистические сравнения, исследования динамических рядов и сформированных на их основе трендов, экономикоматематические методы обоснования экономической эффективности инвестиций и др. 1 © tudor bajura, bajuraiefs@rambler.ru theoretical and scientifical journal 22 no. 1 / 2019 в качестве результатов, полученных на основе проведенных исследований, можно назвать алгоритмы расчета и оценочные показатели уровня эффективности инвестиций в аграрный бизнес, которые годами успешно используются в странах западной европы, но практически полностью игнорируются в рамках национальной экономики республики молдова. ключевые слова: оценка, инвестиционные проекты, современные методы, агробизнес, экономическая эффективность. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-02 jel classification: g11, o13, q10, q13, q16, q19 udc: 338.43+330.322:631.15 introduction. there are almost three decades since the declaration of independence of the republic of moldova (august 27, 1991). during this period, many sectors of the national economy have been successfully adapted to the new conditions of economic activity, based on the market mechanisms and management, primarily those with private ownership above the means of production, including agricultural land. as a result of the permanent reduction of the number of people employed in agriculture, at present only 32.3% of the total number of employees in the national economy are agricultural workers. one of the key factors, contributing to the low level of attractiveness of jobs in agriculture, is the lack of permanent (year-round) jobs, and most importantly, significantly lower wages, which do not exceed 2/3 of the average for the national economy, even in the most demanding period of the year (season of the most intensive agricultural works). investments in the agricultural sector are intended to increase and improve the production capacities of farms, to contribute to the increase of standards of living in rural areas, as well as poverty alleviation. well-defined and well-thought investment projects in the agricultural sector could contribute to the development not only of the economic agent involved in the sector, but will have positive impact also on the population from a certain area where the project is implemented. the aim of the paper is to offer a scientific approach to the investment projects in agriculture, which is also a novelty in this field, as previous research on this specific topic in the republic of moldova is not sufficient and has not been studied at a large extent. even if the study bears a theoretical character, providing methods of assessment of investment projects, its applied feature can not be denied, due to the fact that the calculations provided in the research can be further used is order to assess a specific investment object. the degree of scientific approach to the topic and its presentation in the scientific literature. the detailed analysis of the degree of depiction of the problem in question, i.e. assessment of the investment projects in the agricultural sector, in the scientific literature of the republic of moldova serves as the basis of a univocal conclusion that fragmented analysis of the problems of efficiency of the investment activity have been adequately reflected in the researches of the local scientists. for example, svetlana albu [5] investigated the issues of the assessment and management of the national heritage; the problems of work organization and efficient agricultural management were studied in depth by the moldovan scientists – petru turcanu, alexandru stratan, dumitru parmacli, natalia mocanu, elena timofti and others [6; 7; 8; 9; 10]. at the same time, the efficiency aspect of investments in the agrarian sector, approached as an initial stage of shaping the future agricultural potential, with the application of truly modern western methods, was undertaken in one paper [11], which obviously is not sufficient and do not ensure adequate resolution of the issue of efficiency of investments in agriculture. data sources. the database of the initial information was composed by the monographs, articles, textbooks, etc. both of the scientific workers and university teachers, as well as the works of foreign scholars in the field of investment efficiency, evaluation of real estate objects, including agricultural land. besides this, the data provided by the national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova was consulted, which is properly reflected in the statistical yearbooks for the respective years. nevertheless, the paper uses a personal scientific approach of the author, who provides a set of methods of evaluation of investment projects in the agricultural sector. results and discussions of scientific research. unlike a number of ordinary purchases, which each of us makes, almost daily, without even thinking about their rationality or irrationality, economy and sociology 23 no. 1/ 2019 investment expenditures require a more deeply and comprehensively weighed preliminary justification. taking into account some specific existing features, there are many reasons for a detailed initial analysis of future investments, the main ones being as follows: investments are made, as a rule, for a long term and are often deprived of the possibility of a “reverse motion”; all investment projects usually require essential financial expenses and, therefore, in addition to its own funds, the investor usually also requires borrowed financial resources; large relative and absolute costs, as well as long periods for the implementation of investment projects, determine their increased level of risk; due to limited financial resources and almost unlimited opportunities for investments, each investment proposal currently has, as a rule, not one, but several alternatives, making it difficult for the investor to take a final decision. from the above list of main reasons for pre-investment analysis, we can conclude that there are many potential options for investment. it may seem strage, but this polyvariance of potentially existing directions of investment, in the end, hinders the process of making argumented final investment decisions. in order to overcome the contradiction mentioned above, the present study assumes the use of a diversified system of indicators capable to identify clearly the most effective investment option for each particular case, from the many available alternatives. as an initial stage of substantiation of future investment decisions, we consider the market of agri-food products, which includes a wide range of goods and services for the production, processing, storage, transportation and sale of both raw agricultural materials and ready-to-eat final products. the market of agri-food products: current state and development prospects. the market of agricultural products is closely related to the market of food products, for which it delivers the main part of raw materials and serves as the natural basis for the formation of the latter, but does not duplicate it. the essence of the difference lies in the well-known diversity of both agricultural and food products, their wide diversification and constant renewal. at the same time, an increasing proportion of agricultural products find their final consumption outside the food market (for example, the production of biofuels). in turn, a very dynamic development is observed in areas of food production that are alternative to agriculture (hydroponic cultivation of vegetables, production of synthetic types of protein, suitable for nutrition, etc.). due to the differences mentioned above, retaining the property of a whole, the agri-food market is divided into (i) the market of agricultural goods and services, as well as (ii) the food market. the next distinguishing feature is the fact that both of them: the national and the global level of agricultural market, in the quality of a specific fragment of the market economy (as a whole), steadily provides the largest number of jobs. also, in the third world countries (including the republic of moldova), the agricultural market provides the largest volume of market turnover (in terms of money) compared with the other sectors of economic activity. thus, according to the latest statistics (as already noted), the agricultural sector of the national economy (agriculture, forestry and fish farming) provides jobs for 390 thousand people, which is 33.7% of the total employed population. together with the workers in industry, transport and trade, the total number of workers engaged in the production, processing, transportation and sale of agri-food products exceeds 570.0 thousand people, which is approximately 46.7% of the total number of people from those employed in the national economy. at the same time, the volume of agricultural production in 2017 amounted to 33.0 billion lei, and the retail turnover of food products – 18.2 billion lei, or 37.4% of the total retail turnover. particularly noteworthy is the steady increase in the share of food products in the total retail turnover in recent years. given the fundamental importance of this trend, primarily for those who will make the final decision on investments in agribusiness, it should be noted that it is based on: massive movement of rural residents to cities and municipalities of the republic of moldova after the completion of the privatization of agricultural land and other fixed assets of the agriculture, which took place in 2000; theoretical and scientifical journal 24 no. 1 / 2019 constant growth in the purchasing power of an ever-increasing number of citizens living in urban areas, due to both, a general increase in the standard of living and higher labor productivity (and, consequently, the wage for it) in non-agricultural sectors of the national economy. against the background of the all above mentioned, it should be noted also the dynamic and stable growth of the level of marketability of agricultural production, which reached (by the end of 2017) – 47.5%, which is a record for domestic agriculture. in addition, according to the results for 2017, the profitability of sales of agricultural enterprises, noted by the statistical bodies, was with 2.2 percentage points higher than the average level of this indicator in the national economy and amounted to 21.1% in average annual terms [1, table 22.13.]. at the same time, there are substantial reserves for the growth of both agricultural productivity and the volume of retail turnover of food products, respectively, per average annual worker or per capita (table 1). table 1 labor productivity in agriculture and the volume of retail turnover of food products years gross domestic product (market prices) per capita, lei / year labor productivity per one average annual agricultural worker, lei / year retailing food products per capita, lei / year per one average annual agricultural worker, lei / year 2000 3741.6 10807.8 952.4 1886.2 2005 10457.7 23627.6 1004.5 6725.1 2010 20171.5 63088.9 2259.7 25553.0 2015 34503.4 71185.9 4354.7 40528.3 2016 38106.7 73873.5 5112.4 44196.8 2017 49783.7 87543.6 5115.6 50922.8 source: statistical yearbook of the republic of moldova for relevant years. the main estimates, made on the data of table 1 are: if at the beginning of the period (2000) the labor productivity in the agricultural sector was only 10.8 thousand per worker, per year, then at the end of this period (2017), the labor productivity level in the agricultural sector was already 87.5 thousand or 8.1 times higher; the growth in the productivity of agrarian labor was relatively high, but the retail turnover of food products per agricultural worker increased (for the period analyzed in table 1) even more rapidly – by 27.0 times compared to the beginning of this period (2000). correspondingly, if at the beginning of the period the productivity of one worker, achieved in domestic agriculture, allowed us to satisfy the needs of approximately 2 people, then at the end of the period (2017) this indicator was already nearly 10 people; it is quite obvious that substantial growth in both labor productivity in agriculture and the retail turnover of food products per one average annual worker in this sector, for the entire analyzed (post-privatization) period were achieved, first of all, due to a reduction in the number of employees (from 766 thousand people in 2000 to 390 thousand people in 2017). despite the positive dynamics of the main indicators of the development of the food products market in the republic of moldova, achieved as a result of relatively high growth rates of agricultural labor productivity, in turn, based on private ownership, these indicators are still significantly inferior to many similar indicators of industrialized countries from western europe and north america. this circumstance serves as the starting point of the statement about the existence of substantial reserves for increasing both labor productivity and other quantitative and qualitative indicators of the development of the domestic agri-food sector, including crop yields, animal and poultry productivity, growth in the level of profitability of the agricultural business, etc. it has to be underlined that permanent relative and absolute reduction in the number of rural population, which leads to a stable decrease in the number of agricultural workers, irrefutably testify the need for a smaller number of workers to assure with high-quality and diverse food the increasing number of economy and sociology 25 no. 1/ 2019 urban population. therefore, it is impossible to achieve such results without the help of investments aimed at: the acquisition and practical use of modern technologies for the cultivation of crops (raising animals and poultry), including new highly productive and resistant to stress factors plant varieties and breeds of animals and poultry; introduction of the most advanced organizational forms and methods of agricultural production, integrated into a single (cross-cutting) technological chain – “from the producer's field / farm to the consumer's table”; selection, justification and practical application of optimal composition of production structure, levels of its specialization and/or concentration, allocation of capital in the most efficient for these specific conditions sub-sectors of agricultural production. even this small list of possible solutions to the problem of capital investments clearly indicates the need for a detailed, scientifically based and practically proven guide in the field of agribusiness investments. the presence of many options for investment decisions, as has already been stressed out, does not simplify but, on the contrary, complicates the management decision-making process, making it fragmentary, based, at best, on the experience of other investors, at worst – on intuition or simply by occasionally appearing information. nevertheless, the implementation of capital investments should be based on systemic, strictly reasonable and reliably verified calculations. modern scientific concepts of financial and, above all, investment management really serve as the theoretical basis for making management decisions in the field of investment. the advantage of these concepts lies in the fact that regardless of their internal content, they are all deprived of an ideological background, contain no political preconditions and are capable of justifying the final results of various investment decisions with a high degree of probability. in contrast to the overwhelming majority of previously published and practically applied methods for determining the effectiveness of investments, such practical guidance for making management decisions in the field of agribusiness involves evaluating the effectiveness of investments, based on actualized (discounted) cash flows, generated by one investment project or another. calculation of investment efficiency based on financial flows. it is considered that the accounting department of the enterprise (company) should answer all the questions regarding the existing and/or future investments. in fact, among the many types and forms of financial statements there is a report “on cash flow”, which, in principle, should contain information about all investment projects of the company. naturally, about all existing, for which the accounting department of the company has clearly established (fixed) costs and final (received) results. if we are talking about newly emerging investment projects, accounting data on them, of course, does not exist. therefore, the relevant information should be contained in the project itself. moreover, reputable enterprises (mainly corporate structures) in order to make truly objective, well and comprehensively weighted investment decisions, as a rule, require the development of not one, but several, so-called alternative projects. as a result, based on modern theoretical developments, the most progressive (corporate) practice of financial management regarding investment politics decisions is based on the expected provision (by relevant projects) of the cost-benefit ratio, measured by calculating former and future cash flows (cf). from the above mentioned, it follows that the calculation of cash flows assumes coverage of all types of costs from previous periods (for example, years) and even more complex accounting of cash inflows from future periods. the difficulty lies in the fact that both of these periods (past and future) are very long. as a rule, they are measured in years, and in some cases – in decades of years. a significant part of investment projects (for example, the purchase of land) has no time limit at all. it is well known that, unlike many other types of fixed assets, used in agribusiness, a land plot (in case of its rational use) not only does not lose its biological (read – fertile) qualities but, on the contrary, multiplies them. for this reason, (in particular) land plots are not subject to depreciation, which makes them particularly attractive as an object of investment. theoretical and scientifical journal 26 no. 1 / 2019 the method of measuring and comparing cash flows is not the only one decision-making method in the field of scientific argumentation of investments. many investment projects (especially in the pre-reform period of development of the national economy) were developed and implemented in order to solve purely applied tasks, for example, to ensure the production of grain crops at least 1 ton per each citizen of the country per year. another widely known, but no less ideological, approach to making decisions in the field of investments is the method of comparison. as a rule, separate, previously achieved indicators of different countries (regions) are compared, which in itself is methodologically erroneous, given the huge number of existing factors, the differences between which make the comparison method practically unacceptable. as will be shown later, the cash flow investment decision making method is also based on separate comparison fragments. however, in this case we are talking about comparing the cost streams with the revenue streams, provided by these costs. the integrity of the investment project, as an object of research, more precisely, the object of evaluation of the designed investment, is not violated here, which leads to the exclusion of the possible (positive or negative) influence of external factors. calculation of cash flows for the development of investment projects. as already noted, the theoretical basis for the development of modern investment projects are cash flows, consisting of: construction costs of the investment object; current operating costs occurring during the operation of the investee; revenue, and ultimately – the net income, received as a result of the operation of the investment project. taking into account the fact that between the start of project development and the receipt of future outcomes there is usually a significant (in time) period, it is important that the planning and pre-planning calculations take into account real-life needs of expenditure, as well as the most reasonable cash receipts, due to these costs (equally investment and current). the main source of information for calculating investment costs is a cost estimate (technological maps) for laying a unit of an orchard, vineyard, greenhouse, farm, etc. if the investment project provides for the production and sale only a single type of product (for example, production of plums for fresh sale), then planning cash flows at the beginning of the project can be simplified, considering the rise in the selling price in proportion to the expected rate of inflation for the entire period of the project. however, in the overwhelming majority of cases, the quantity of produced products will be significantly more than one (due to the need to respect the crop rotations, the rational use of acquired technical means, the available labor, etc.). in this regard, it is recommended to calculate the average value of cash flows (monthly operating costs and net cash proceeds) for the first year of operation of the project according to table 2. in subsequent years, the performance of the project is expected to be estimated by the average rate of increase in costs and an adequate increase in outputs (final results), based on the expected yield increase and the dynamics of changes in selling prices, taking into account the level of inflation. the payback period and the coefficient of efficiency of investment in case of the "zero" level of inflation. as a commentary to the title of this section, it should be noted that for various reasons, which do not depend on the choice of investor, each investment project will be implemented either in the inflation or deflationary economic system. "inflation" means the depreciation of money, accompanied, as a rule, by an increase in prices for goods and/or services. the economic essence of inflationary phenomena is widely covered in the special literature, so we will not describe it. we only emphasize once again that, unlike deflation, which, on the contrary, represents an increase in the purchasing power of currency notes and, as a result, a decrease in prices for goods and/or services, the inflation scenario of the development of the national economy is more attractive for investors. taking into account the availability, magnitude and trends of a number of pricing factors, as well as factors of profit (loss), debt, economic growth, etc. the current financial and economic state of the republic of moldova can be characterized as stably inflationary with a gradual approach to the “zero” level of inflation and the subsequent transition to a deflationary scenario of economic development. economy and sociology 27 no. 1/ 2019 considering all the above mentioned, and also taking into account the experience of other countries, primarily japan, the period of attaining the state of “zero” inflation for the republic of moldova is measured for at least decades. table 2 cash flow planning, based on operational costs and results, lei name of crops expendit ure of previous periods month total for the year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 cash inflow winter wheat. other cultures ... 2820 328060 330880 total receipts 103500 274280 776200 532400 976000 2662380 cash costs winter wheat. other cultures ... 56748 5818 13516 15170 5850 97102 total variable costs 193485 84731 78657 116576 106554 73981 44878 168413 19861 887136 fixed costs, total 11499 11499 19269 11499 11499 19269 27139 11499 19269 11499 11499 182122 347461 total costs 193485 11499 11499 104000 90156 128073 125823 101020 56377 187682 31360 11499 181122 1234597 cash flow availability of money at the beginning of the period -193485 -204984 -216483 -320483 -410639 -538715 -664537 -662057 -444154 144364 645404 1609905 х arrival (+) 103510 274280 776200 532400 976000 2662380 expenses (-) -193485 -11499 -11499 -104000 -90156 -128073 -125823 -101020 -56377 -187682 -31360 -11499 -181122 -1234597 availability of money at the end of the period -193485 -204984 -216483 -320483 -410639 -538715 -664537 -662057 -444154 144364 645404 1609905 1427783 х source: author`s calculations. it is important to clarify that from the point of view of investors and the investment process as a whole, this period is the most favorable for acquiring or/and opening an "own business", obtaining the status of social and financial independence, characteristic for every successful entrepreneur. this clarification is necessary because the essence of the “deflationary economy” scenario, in scientific circles and among entrepreneurs, is consistently associated with the state of stagnation, a return to the administrative methods of economic management. these are quite familiar to older businessmen who laid the foundations of their business back in the 80’s of the last century or in the early years of mass privatization in the republic of moldova (the end of last century). as already noted, even theoretically, on the verge of a transition from an inflationary to a deflationary economy, a so-called “zero” inflation period should exist and indeed exists (albeit rather short). what does this period mean, what are its main parameters and characteristics? the content of this question, as well as the answer to it, has its clear theoretical expression. however, for the purposes of this management (decision-making) oriented article, it is more important to identify the purely practical (applied) essence of the identified problem. the essence of the state economy at the level of “zero” inflation, as well as (equally) – “zero” deflation, is that during this period both – the purchasing power of banknotes and the actual market prices for goods and services remain unchanged, absolutely stable. non-systemic (for example, local, sectoral, etc.) deviations from this stability, of course, can occur. but they will be nothing more than exceptions, which, as we know, only confirm the existence theoretical and scientifical journal 28 no. 1 / 2019 of a rule. the rule remains itself – the purchasing power of banknotes in the period of "zero" inflation does not change in time, prices for goods and services also remain unchanged. the economy operates in conditions of stable purchasing power of banknotes. from the point of view of the appraiser of the effectiveness of investments, this is the most simplified version. since inflation (as well as deflation) is absent, all types of investment costs, regardless of the statute of limitations for their implementation, add up to a total amount (like children's blocks) without any adjustment and without any amendments to the preceding dimensions. the same thing happens with the end results, obtained from the operation of certain investment projects. since this is a “clean” end result, i.e. result, cleared of inevitable current costs, which boils down, in principle, to revenue (usually annual) minus all types of operating (i.e., associated with the operation of the name of this investment project) costs. these “clean” results in these conditions (i.e., “zero” inflation conditions) also add up to a single amount like a house of children's cubes – without a single adjustment for the length of the period, separating the capital investment in a particular project from the really obtained profit of its exploitation. then, by comparing the obtained "net" results with the previously implemented total investment costs, we determine the payback period of the invested funds, as well as the level of their economic efficiency. we remind you that such a calculation is justified and makes sense only if there is a “zero” inflation, that actually takes place (or simply assumed – in the case of preliminary or test calculations). exceptions to this limitation may be situations when the investment project being analyzed and/or estimated in short-term period (within 3 ÷ 5 years), or the inflation rate in this period is absolutely insignificant – within 2 ÷ 3% per annum. the calculation of the payback period of investments (payback period – tp.p.) is carried out separately for the depreciable components of the investment project and separately for nondepreciable. for non-depreciable components, the calculation of tp.p. is conducted according to the formula: . .. .. anav pp р ic t  (years) (1) where: ic – the initial cost of investment, lei; pav.an.– average annual “net” cash flow due to the operation of this (non-depreciable) component of the investment project, lei / year. if the average annual “net” cash flow is calculated for the depreciable part of the project, the size of the average annual “net” cash flow is increased by the amount of annual depreciation. example: an investment project with a cost (ic) of 110 thousand lei ensures profit (net income) in the amount of (thousand lei): 1 year 50; 2 year 46; 3 year 40; 4 year 30; 5 year 26. it is required to determine the payback period of this project in the conditions of "zero" inflation. 1. determine the net average annual income from the operation of above mentioned investment project: 4.38 5 2630404650 ..    anav р thousand lei / year 2. the payback period of investment project is: 0.5 4.38 192 р ic av.an. ..  рр т years calculation of the payback period of investment projects in the conditions of “zero” (really existing or simply assumed) inflation is an effective and most simplified part of any analysis (any assessment) of investment activity. due to its simplicity and the absence of the need to use complex mathematical tools, this calculation must necessarily precede any form of investment calculation, regardless of its size (volume), industry sector, etc. it should also be emphasized that the calculation of the payback period is an important first step in choosing the most effective project among the many others – alternative ones. economy and sociology 29 no. 1/ 2019 at the same time, having a number of advantages and being widely used in the practice of developing and making investment decisions, the payback period of investments as an analytical and estimated indicator has significant drawbacks. along with those mentioned above, another one should be noted, which is very important from the point of view of practical solutions. the payback period does not give an answer to the question of how much this or that final result of investment activity is achieved. however, in reality, in addition to information about the size of invested capital (ic) and the payback period (tp.p.), it is also very important for the investor to know which are the main parameters of the project’s economic efficiency, in particular – what is its average annual (and final) efficiency. the essence of the problem lies in the fact that not a single investment project, as a rule, can do without attracting borrowed capital, for which, as we know, an investor has to regularly pay a certain percentage. following this logic, it is reasonable to assume that even if the investor has sufficient capital to implement the project, this investment source is also not free of charge. the investor’s own funds have been, deposited at a bank account, could bring him a certain income, which (in this case) is the cost of the investor’s own capital. in other words, any investment proposal may be acceptable provided that its efficiency (i.e. return on invested capital) will be higher than the cost of this capital. therefore, for non-depreciable components of investment projects, the efficiency of invested capital is calculated by the formula: 100 ..  ic p arr anav (%) (2) where: arr –accounting rate of return – arr, %; pav.an. and ic – the average annual net cash income and the initial investment cost, respectively [2]. for depreciable components of investment projects (or for depreciable projects subject to depreciation as a whole), formula (2) takes the following form: 100 5,0 ..    ic р arr anav (%) (3) if at the end of operation of the project its residual value is zero, or:   100 5,0 ..    rvic р arr anav (%) (4) if the residual value (rv) is greater than zero. in both of the above mentioned cases when calculating pav.an. along with the net operating income, the average annual amount of accrued depreciation has also to be taken into account. in a market economy, there are no officially established lower and/or upper (minimum or maximum) limits of arr. despite this, the minimum level of the efficiency of capital investments, naturally, can not be lower than the average rate of credit, delivered for the national economy in the banking system, which in the republic of moldova currently stands at 8.6% per annum. taking into account the fact that both of the above mentioned indicators (tp.p and arr) are significant only in the conditions of "zero" inflation and focusing on their reciprocal value, one would expect to make positive decisions on all investment projects whose payback period on average does not exceed 11.6 years ( 6,11 6,8 100  ). however, in conditions of even moderate inflation, these calculations can lead to erroneous results. as it is well known, under the influence of inflation the efficiency ratio of capital investments decreases, while their payback period, on the contrary, increases. methodical approaches to the calculation of the capitalized (future) value of investments in terms of inflation. in the conditions of a market, and even more than that – a market inflationary economy, the ultimate goal of any investment project is to increase the investor’s capital. in turn, this multiplication is possible only in the case of successful project operation, meaning a constant and very significant (especially in the conditions of substantial inflation) excess of income over costs, both of which are measured in current prices of the respective years. theoretical and scientifical journal 30 no. 1 / 2019 the next important feature of calculating the multiplied (capitalized, future, final, etc.) value of investment projects is the need to separate the cash flows caused by a particular project into at least two qualitatively (and quantitatively) different directions: the first direction (we will consider it the main one) is that part of the money received, which the investor does not intend to divert to other goals, leaving it to further strengthen and accelerate the development of the business (project); the second direction is the funds recovered (received) as a result of the successful operation of the project, which are constantly (or periodically) diverted by the investor to solve other problems that have nothing to do with the analyzed (estimated) investments. the most of the net cash income (from the project) will be used in the second direction, the less will be the end result of its functioning. typical for successfully operating investment projects is the division of the resulting total net income of the investment project in half: 50% of the funds are used for further development (expansion, modernization, diversification, etc.) of the basic project; 50% – to solve other problems, including the payment of dividends to the owner (co-owners), encouraging managers of the enterprise and other goals. it is quite obvious that the subsequent return of the newly invested (reinvested) in the investment project and/or the funds diverted from it for other needs will be completely different. the methods for calculating the capitalized value are also different for each of the listed ways to use the received net income. in the case of reinvestment of funds in the development of the project, the calculation of the final results of investment activity is carried out on the basis of a compound interest formula (compound rate of return – crr). if the funds received as a result of the effective (profitable) activity of the project are not reinvested in the development of the project, but are diverted to other goals and/or needs of the owner of the company (including to solve his personal problems), the calculation of the final (capitalized) project cost is effectuated on the base of simple interest formula (simple rate of return – srr). before proceeding directly to the essence of the above mentioned methodological approaches to the calculation of the final (capitalized) or future project value (future value – fv), let us take a closer look at some specific fragments of separate accounting of cash flows, generated by a successfully functioning investment project. first of all, it should be noted that the distinction between the cash flows generated by the investment project is clearly reflected in the documents of the company's accounting statements. the amounts of money sent for the development of an enterprise are reflected in the balance sheet on the liabilities side under the name “retained earnings”, which naturally increases from year to year. also the report on retained earnings reflects the monies paid to the owners of the enterprise (project) in the form of dividends, which, in turn, will be used for personal purposes and the needs of investors (founders or simply co-owners of the enterprise). as a separate note, it should be emphasized that “dividends received” and “retained earnings” are only the part of the existing forms of returning money to capital, invested in an investment project. the part of revenue returned to owners funds is also replenished due to depreciation deductions and, to a large extent, due to the remuneration of labor of both the investor(s) and their family members. despite the fact that both of these sources belong to the category of costs of the enterprise, and their practical transformation into monetary form occurs only at the time of sale of manufactured products in the respective sales markets, for the vast majority of potentially existing investors in agribusiness they are an essential additional source of income. returning to the question of methodological approaches to the calculation of the future, or accumulated (capitalized) income, depending on the direction of use of the resulting return, we note the following: a) the received cash income is completely reinvested in a valid investment project. in this case, as it was already mentioned, we will use the algorithm of compound rate of return (crr): rnc=pо x (1+r)n, lei (5) b) the received cash income is completely distracted from the existing investment project and is directed to other goals and needs. in this case the algoritm of simple rate of return – srr, will be: economy and sociology 31 no. 1/ 2019 rns=pо x (1+rn), lei (6) where: rnc (crr) and rns (srr) are respectively the capitalized (future) value of the investment project, calculated (option “a”, formula 5) using the compound interest rate of return formula and (option “b”, formula 6) using the simple interest rate of return formula (lei); po = ic is the initial cost of the investment project, lei; r is the established level of profitability of an investment project (specific units); n is the number of operation periods of the project and, accordingly, the number of periods for calculating the capitalized value. analyzing the content of formulas (5) and (6), at first glance it becomes clear that if the number of calculation periods is one (only), then the results of the calculations in both cases will be the same. in all other cases, however, these results will be significantly different. the difference between the above mentioned two methods of calculating the accumulated (capitalized or future) value will be considered on a specific example. example: it is required to calculate the final amount of capital accumulation obtained as a result of making an investment in the amount of 1000 lei, if used: a) compound interest rate formulas; b) simple interest rate formulas, taking into account the following conditions: ran. = 20%; settlement periods are: 90 days; 180 days; 1 year; 5 years; 10 years (a year has 360 days) [3]. the calculation results are summarized in table 3 (fig. 1). table 3 the results of the calculation of the capitalized (future) value of the investment, depending on the number of calculation periods and methods, thous. lei algorithm (method) of calculation 90 days n=1/4 180 days n=1/2 1 year n=1 5 years n=5 10 years n=10 а) compound interest rate formula; 1,0466 1,0954 1,20 2,4883 6,1917 b) simple interest rate formula 1,05 1,10 1,20 2,00 3,00 source: elaborated by the author. thus, as follows from the above reflected example, if the interest accrual period is less than one, then the calculation using the simple interest rate formula gives a larger final result, compared to the compound interest rate formula. if the number of charges is greater than one, then the result of the calculation of the accrued amount will (with time) significantly exceed the results of alternative calculations, in this case, calculations made according to the simple interest rate scheme. with ten periods of calculation, as follows from above mentioned example, the accrued amount of an investment project (calculated according to the compound interest rate scheme) will more than double the same result, obtained using the simple interest rate scheme. in the economic literature, this phenomenon is characterized as “calculation of interest on interest”, suggesting that, according to option “a”, the investor does not withdraw money from his project, expecting them to increase more and more as a result of capitalization of the accrued amounts of money. if we depict the situation graphically, then it is quite obvious that the simple interest rate method will reflect a steady increase of capitalization in an arithmetic progression. in other words, by the end of the ten-year period, the total amount of money will increase threefold and reach 3,000 lei (although on the project will still be the original amount of 1,000 lei). as for accumulation under the compound interest rate scheme, it is also quite obvious that by the end of the 10-year period, the total amount of money will exceed the initial amount by almost 6.2 times (6191.7 lei), the total volume of money will increase exponentially. in both cases, however, the greater the growth rate will be, the larger the total amount of money, accumulated in the framework of investment project. theoretical and scientifical journal 32 no. 1 / 2019 another example of using simple interest rate to calculate the capitalized value is the lease of a land plot, as a result of which the land owner uses all received rental payments, for his own, let's say, purely personal purposes. if, suppose, the same amounts of cash payments are used by the lessor to make the necessary improvements (for example, irrigation of the plot), then we should expect a subsequent increase in the amount of rent, which should be regarded as a “interest on interest” payment phenomenon, in this case, the capitalized amount is calculated using the compound interest rate formula. many agribusiness investment projects are burdened with a number of natural restrictions (land size, for example, can not be increased if neighbors do not intend to sell their land; there is not much possibilities for improvement, etc.). in this case, an increasing part of the cash flow due to one investment project, investors will divert and use to initiate other, as a rule, more advanced projects. figure 1. the difference of capitalized (future) value, depending on the number of calculation periods and methods source: author`s calculations. depending on the specific intentions of the investor, the capitalized amount of the investment project will be calculated according to a specific algorithm, specially developed for this situation, the essence of which is reduced to the separation of financial flows, capitalized by the one or another method of calculation. in order to simplify the algorithms, the future (capitalized), investment value of projects is calculated, as a rule, using the compound interest rate formula. at the same time, the current one, i.e. the original (initial) cost of project acts as a generator of future returnable cash flows, but is not equal to them. as a result, the future (capitalized) value of an investment project (fv) is solely a result of the capitalization of the cash flows generated by this project and is determined by the formula:   n n n n rpfv    1 1 , lei (7) where: p1; p2; p3 … pn – net cash flows (net income + depreciation for depreciable components of investment projects), respectively, for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. years of project operation, lei; r – capitalization rate, specific units; n – the number of periods (for the agribusiness industries – the number of years of operation of the project). as it was already emphasized, the calculation of the net cash flow for each year of the project’s operation is carried out on the basis of technological charts, developed for each specific type of investment, based on the planned market prices and the actual (normative) cost of production. the calculation methodology, structure and current (actualized) cost of the overwhelming majority of the n 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0,25 0,5 0,75 1 year 1,5 years 2 years 2,5 years 3 years rns rnc σ (lei) economy and sociology 33 no. 1/ 2019 agri-food products, produced in the republic of moldova, are set out in the practical guide “tariffs of costs in agriculture” [4]. the concept of present value (pv), net present value (npv) and rentability index of investments in an inflationary economy. the future (capitalized) cost of an investment project is an important criterion for making investment decisions and serves as an indispensable guideline in the case of choosing the most appropriate investment option from several alternatives. at the same time, the investor, as a rule, is interested not so much in the future value (especially in the gross future value) of the investment, but in its present value, i.e. actualized (reduced) total (based on completion of the project operation) income for the entire period of its operation. in order to identify this indicator, referred to as – the present (current) value (pv), the projected cash flows are subject to the procedure of updating (discounting). the essence of the discounting process is that instead of calculating future value (fv), analysts estimate the same cash flows from the point of view of the present moment. the calculation is carried out according to the formula:       n n n n r p pv 1 1 (lei) (8) the symbols used correspond to the formula (5). the practical significance of the actualized (updated) value of the investment project is beyond doubt. having determined the present value (pv), the investor practically finds out (which is very important) the market price of the project at the stage of its commissioning, calculated on the basis of updated cash flows (one of the three main methods for calculating the market price of real estate, legalized in the republic of moldova). it has to be mentioned that dimensions of pv is especially relevant for developers, i.e. investors whose main purpose is not so much the exploitation of investment projects, as their construction (for example, planting a garden or a vineyard plantation) with their subsequent sale. it should be separately emphasized that from the point of view of the developer, it is important not only to know the current market value of the project, but the difference between this cost and the initial cost of its construction. in this case, along with the present value (pv), one should also calculate the net present value (npv) using the formula:   ic r p icpvnpv n n n n     1 1 (lei) (9) the objectivity and reliability of using this algorithm is based on the fact that, being reduced by the time of the start of operation (the time the investment project is put into operation), both the initial cost of its construction and all subsequent proceeds from operation will be measured by banknotes (lei, dollar, euro, etc.), having equal purchasing power. achieving purchasing power parity by applying formula (9) largely depends on the validity of the calculation of the update rate. in the most general approach, the value of the actualization rate or (which is the same) the discount rate (rd), as well as the size of the capitalization rate (rc), are predetermined by: (i) inflation rates; (ii) the degree of riskiness of investing money in this particular type of business; (iii) naturally, the level of profitability of the production of these agricultural products, etc. all these indicators, even if they are completely objective, can often have nothing to do with an investment project. moreover, the attempts of individual authors to calculate the discount rate for a project by simple (arithmetic) summation of all previously noted indicators are devoid of logic, since all of them are subject to the effect of mutual absorption. taking into account the fact that with relatively small absolute amounts of discount rates (rd) and capitalization rates (rc), there are practically no differences between them [3, p. 338], given the presence of instability of these rates over the years of project operation. the indicated source of information recommends calculating the average annual discount rate on the basis of generally accepted indicators in the national economy (average business lending rate, current lending rate for investment projects in a given industry, a given locality, and so on). as noted earlier, the higher the capitalization rate, the shorter the payback period of corresponding investments, and vice versa. the reduction (on average in the banking system) of the theoretical and scientifical journal 34 no. 1 / 2019 lending rates of economic entities, currently taking place in the republic of moldova, means a general increase in the payback period of the invested funds. on the other hand, the same fact means that investments in the most profitable types of business (fuel filling stations, pharmacies, etc.) have already reached their maximum level, i.e. saturation level. the time has come to invest in those sectors that were previously considered less attractive due to the longer payback periods of investment costs. the investment front is expanding. if at 10% of average annual efficiency all invested money could be returned to the investor within 10 years (under zero inflation conditions, naturally), then at 5% of average annual efficiency, the return period for invested funds increases to 20 years. with "other things being equal" – means that the area of application of investment projects is becoming wider, covering more and more new sectors of the national economy, new territories, etc. to a large extent, such an expansion in the sphere of investments means the flow of capital from more profitable to less profitable sectors of the national economy. in any case, having calculated the npv indicator, the investor gets a clear indication of which direction to go further:  if npv> 0, that is measured by a positive number, which means that investments are profitable and can be implemented in practice;  if npv <0, that it has a negative value, which means that investments are unprofitable and should be abandoned;  in a situation when npv = 0, this indicator receives a neutral status and must be supplemented (or replaced) with other decision-making indicators. along with a number of obvious and less obvious advantages, the calculation of indicators present value – pv and net present value – npv has some disadvantages. the main one is the fact that denoting, suppose, a positive effect from investing in such and such a project (npv> 0), this indicator confirms the presence of a positive result, but does not open the investor's eyes regarding what kind of price this result will require to be achieved. this disadvantage of npv is particularly relevant in the case of alternatives. it is not excluded that any of them will be able to provide the investor with the same result, but at a significantly lower price, at significantly lower costs. in order to prevent possible errors in the process of making investment decisions, it is proposed, along with the calculation of pv and npv, to also calculate the value of the investment project profitability index (rentability index – ri).   ic r p ri n n n n : 11     (specific units) (10) taking into account that       n n n n r p pv 1 1 (see formula 8), we can convert formula (10) into: ic pv ri  (specific units) (11) thus, if  ri> 1 (pv> ic) – the market value (pv) of the investment project at the stage of its commissioning (equivalently at the stage of completion of the construction stage) is higher than the initial cost of its creation (whether it is building, planting a garden or a vineyard, irrigation system, etc.) – the investment project is accepted;  ri <1 (pv <ic) – the investment project should be rejected;  in a situation when ri = 1 (pv = ic) – the index of profitability becomes neutral and must be supplemented by other calculations [3, p. 447]. in contrast to indicators, based on the absolute size of expected cash returns, which are pv and npv, the profitability index is relative, characterizes not the amount of income, but the level of profitability of the investment project and therefore is almost irreplaceable when choosing the most effective project from the many others. the higher the ri is, the greater, with other things being equal, will be the return on the practical implementation of the project. economy and sociology 35 no. 1/ 2019 conclusion 1. in an economic system with “zero” or near to “zero” inflation, as well as for the evaluation of investment projects with short periods of operation (2-3 years), the main indicators for investment projects’ evaluation must be the payback period (tp.p.) and the accounting rate of return (arr). 2. for conditions of inflationary economy it has to be recommended more sophisticated methods of investment projects’ evaluation, based on a preliminary calculation of net cash flows, generated by these projects, the subsequent updating of these flows and the calculation of indicators such as present value (pv), net present value (npv) and rentability index (ri) for one or another investment project. 3. for all (without exceptions) situations, final decisions about the practical implementation of investment projects are recommended to be made on the basis of a comparison of above mentioned performance indicators for 2-3 or even more alternative projects, elaborated for the same or related branches of economic activity. references 1. biroul naţional de statistică al republicii moldova. anuarul statistic a republicii moldova, 2017 = statističeskij ežegodnik respubliki moldova = statistical yearbook of the republic of moldova. chişinău: biroul naţional de statistică, 2017. 485 p. 2. stratan, a., bajura, t. metodologia elaborării şi evaluării proiectelor investiţionale pentru sectorul agroalimentar: ghid metodologic. chişinău: ince, 2017. 70 р. isbn 978-9975-3171-4-6. 3. kovalёv, в.в. vvedenie v finansovyj menedžment. moskva: finansy i statistika, 1999. 4. bajura, t., stratan, a., scobioală, p., ignat, a., ceban, a., romanciuc, a., gandacova, s. tureţchi, v., iaţişin, t., arnaut, c., ţirigan, s., lucaşenco, e., popa, n. tarife de costuri în agricultură: ghid practic. chişinău: ince, 2017. 161 p. isbn 978-9975-3171-3-9. 5. albu, s. valoarea patrimoniului. problemele aprecierii şi gestiunii. chişinău: utm, 2009. 184 p. isbn 978-9975-45-120-8. 6. ţurcanu, p., stratan, a. organizarea muncii şi a producţiei agricole. chişinău: uasm, 2006. 384 p. isbn 978-9975-64-063-3. 7. parmakli, д., mokanu, n. agrarnaâ èkonomika respubliki moldova: sostoânie i puti restrukturizacii. kagul: kgu im. «b. p, hašdeu», 2009. 324 s. isbn 978-9975-4051-3-3. 8. mocanu, n. managementul reformărilor în sectorul agrar al republicii moldova. chişinău: uasm, 2010. 217 p. isbn 978-9975-4152-2-4. 9. timofti, e., chişlaru, a. eficienţa economică a producerii grâului de toamnă în republica moldova. chişinău: uasm, 2007. 223 p. isbn 978-9975-64-095-4. 10. timofti, e., popa, d. eficienţa mecanismului economic în sectorul agrar. chişinău: iefs, 2009. 343 p. isbn 978-9975-9823-3-7. 11. uil'âm, f. šarp, gordon dž. aleksander, džeffri v. bèjli. investicii. moskva: infra-m, 1999. 1027 s. 12. mertens, а. investicii. kiev: кievskoe investicionnoe agenstvo, 1997. 245 s. 13. gitman, l. dž., džonk, m. d. osnovy investirovaniâ. moskva: izdatel'stvo delo, 1997. 1008 s. 14. william, britton, keith, davies, tony, johnson. modern methods of valuation. london: the estates gazette limited, 1989. 768 p. isbn 0-7282-0126-7. 15. kovalёv, v. metody ocenki investicionnyh proektov. moskva: finansy i statistika, 1998. isbn 5279-01871-6. 16. birman, g., šmidt, s. èkonomičeskij analiz investicioonyh proektov. per.s angl. pod red. l.p. belyh. moskva: banki i birži, ûniti, 1997. 480 s. 17. brighem, û., gapenski, l finansovyj menedžment. polnyj kurs. v 2-h t. per. s angl. pod red. v.v kovaleva. spb: èkonomičeskaâ škola, 1997. 18. fridman, d., orduèj, n. analiz i ocenka prinosâŝej dohod nedvižimosti. per. s angl. moskva: delo ltd, 1995. 19. brigham, e., houston, j. fundamentals of financial management. orlando: harcourt college publishers, 1999. 1034 p. isbn 978-0030272639. recommended for publication: 22.03.2019 economy and sociology 87 no. 1/ 2019 birth control in belarus and china: current policy anastacia bobrova1, phd of economic sciences, andrei piliutsik, phd of economic sciences, ge in, phd student, gao yuan, phd student, institute of economics of the national academy of sciences of belarus belarus and china are experiencing a decline of the total fertility rate (tfr). on the one hand, this was a natural response to the increasing role of women in society, on the labor market and increasing women's participation in education. as a result women are marrying and have children later in their life, which leads to a decrease in the number of children born. on the other hand, scientists state the role of the policy on childbearing, the strength of which is difficult to calculat e although. today, one can observe a rapid strengthening of bilateral relations in economic, social and other areas of regulation. belarus and china had different birth control vectors. in the conditions of protracted depopulation in the republic of belarus, stimulation of the birth rate has become a priority goal of the state policy. rapid population growth in china posed a threat to economic, food, and even environmental security. this led to the adoption of drastic measures to limit the number of childre n born in chinese families. this paper focuses on how similar are birth control policies in belarus and china. the choice of countries is also due to the fact that today both countries set the goal to stabilize the population in order to ensure sustainable economic development and improvement in the quality of life. the paper presents a description and analysis of legal acts that regulate demographic processes, as well as specific areas of support for families with children. it was revealed that belarus provides multilateral (mostly financial) assistance not only for the birth of a child, but also for his upbringing. the system is designed so that a woman cares for a child 3 years after his birth. in china, in the face of fierce competition in the labor market, women go to work after maternity leave. they are forced to use the services of pre-school education, even if they are expensive. as a result, the decision to give birth to a child is weighed in terms of the economic possibilities of families. in china, measures may vary depending on the territory; in belarus, politics is one for all. it is difficult to assess in which country the policy is more effective. the total fertility rate for the past 25 years is very similar. keywords: birth control, family policy, demographic policy. în belarus și china se observă o tendință de scădere a ratei totale de fertilitate. pe de o parte, aceasta prezintă un răspuns firesc la creșterea rolului femeilor în societate, pe piața muncii și gradului de implicare a fetelor în procesul educațional. drept urmare, se constată majorarea vârstei la căsătorie și naștere, precum și reducerea numărului de copii născuți. pe de altă parte, cercetătorii indică influența politicilor asupra natalității, efectul cărora este foarte dificil de evaluat. anterior, belarus și china aveau vectori diferiți în controlul natalității. în condițiile depopulării în republica belarus, stimularea natalității a devenit o prioritate a politicii de stat. în china, creșterea rapidă a populației a reprezentat o amenințare pentru securitatea economică, alimentară și chiar pentru mediu. aceasta a dus la adoptarea unor măsuri drastice pentru a limita numărul de copii născuți în familii chineze. cu toate acestea, acum ambele țări au un singur obiectiv – stabilizarea numărului populației pentru a asigura o dezvoltare economică durabilă și a îmbunăt ăți calitatea vieții oamenilor. în acest articol se analizează cât de asemănătoare este politica de control al natalității în aceste două țări. alegerea țărilor se datorează și faptului că astăzi interacțiunea dintre china și belarus crește rapid în multe domenii, inclusiv în domeniile economic și social. articolul prezintă o descriere și o analiză a actelor juridice care reglementează procesele demografice, precum și zonele specifice de sprijin a familiilor cu copii. s-a dezvăluit că belarus oferă o asistență multilaterală 1 © anastacia bobrova, nastassiabobrova@mail.ru theoretical and scientifical journal 88 no. 1 / 2019 (preponderent financiară) nu numai pentru nașterea unui copil, ci și pentru educația sa. sistemul este conceput astfel încât, de regulă, o femeie să aibă grijă de un copil până la 3 ani de la naștere. în china, în condițiile concurenței acerbe pe piața muncii, femeile merg la muncă după concediul de maternitate. ele sunt obligate să utilizeze serviciile educației preșcolare, în pofida faptului că acestea sunt destul de costisitoare. drept urmare, decizia de a naște un copil este cântărită în ceea ce privește posibilitățile economice ale familiilor. în china, măsurile pot varia în funcție de teritoriu, în belarus, politica este una pentru toți. este dificil de evaluat în ce țară politica este mai eficientă. totodată, rata totală de fertilitate din ultimii 25 de ani se menține la un nivel similar în ambele țări. cuvinte-cheie: controlul nașterii, politica familială, politica demografică. в беларуси и китае наблюдается падение суммарного коэффициента рождаемости. с одной стороны, это стало естественным откликом на возрастание роли женщины в обществе, на рынке труда и расширении вовлеченности девушек в образовательный процесс. как результат, наблюдается более поздний возраст вступления в брак и рождения детей, а также сокращение числа рождениц. в другой стороны, ученые указывают на влияние на рождаемость политики, силу которого оценить очень сложно. раньше беларусь и китай имели разные векторы регулирования рождаемости. в условиях затяжной депопуляции в республике беларусь стимулирование рождаемости стало безусловным приоритетом государственной политики. в китае быстрые темпы роста населения выступили угрозой экономической, продовольственной и даже экологической безопасности. это обусловило принятие кардинальных мер по ограничению числа рожденных детей в китайских семьях. однако сейчас обе страны ставят перед собой одну цель – стабилизировать численность населения в целях обеспечения устойчивого развития экономики и повышен ия качества жизни людей. насколько схожа политика в области регулирования рождаемости в двух странах рассматривается в данной статье. выбор стран обусловлен также и тем, что сегодня все более стремительно укрепляется взаимодействие между китаем и беларусью во многих сферах, в том числе экономической, социальной и др. в статье представлено описание и анализ правовых актов, которые регулируют демографические процессы, а также конкретных направлений поддержки семей с детьми. выявлено, что в беларуси предоставляется многосторонняя (в большей степени финансовая) помощь не только при рождении ребенка, но и для его воспитания. система устроена так, что, как правило, женщина ухаживает за ребенком 3 года после его рождения. в китае в условиях жесткой конкуренции на рынке труда женщины выходят на работу по истечении декретных отпусков. они вынуждены пользоваться услугами дошкольного образования даже, если они стоят дорого. как следствие, решение о рождении ребенка взвешивается с точки зрения экономических возможностей семей. в китае меры могут различаться в зависимости от территории, в беларуси политика едина для всех. сложно оценить в какой стране политика более эффективна. суммарный коэффициент рождаемости уже на протяжении 25 лет очень схож. ключевые слова: регулирование рождаемости, семейная политика, демографическая политика. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-07 jel classification: j13 udc: 314.15 (476+510) introduction. belarus and china had different birth control vectors. nevertheless, the total fertility rate in belarus and china is at the same level more than 25 years (graph 1). today, both countries have the goal to stabilize the population in order to ensure sustainable economic development and improvement in the quality of life. it is important to underline, that nowadays women are under double pressure: they have to work and they have to take care of the family [1]. the results of studies conducted in china showed a 7% reduction in wages with each subsequent child [2]. there is a problem of choice between working and rasing children [3]. economy and sociology 89 no. 1/ 2019 graph 1. total fertility rate in belarus and china, births per woman source: according to world bank database. in this situation, state policy aimed at supporting both labor and child rearing comes forward. in addition, both belarusian and chinese scientists say that a number of important factors has an influence on the birth rate. among them are the socio-economic, structural (transformation of the population structure) and individual factors [4; 5]. modern chinese authors focus on breastfeeding policy as one of the important factors in improving babies’ health [6]. for example, in both countries, there is the possibility to take two maternity leaves for breastfeeding for working women (up to 1 year old in china, up to 1.5 years old in belarus). however, it takes 30 minutes to get to the child and back to work. this provides an additional incentive for the decision to switch to artificial feeding. there is an acute problem with the availability of rooms for breastfeeding in public places. infrastructure becomes an essential part of family and children support policy. however, infrastructure development is not always properly implemented. in belarus, changes in the population structure are already hindering and will hinder in the next decade the achieving of the objective to increase the number of births. the mean age at childbearing continues to increase. in 2017, the mean age at childbearing was 29.2 years. at the same time, the number of women aged 20-29 years in 2017 compared to 2010 decreased by more than 130 thousand people, which led to a reduction in the number of first childbirth. in the past 2 years, the situation has become even more complicated. the effect of socio-economic factors decreased, the effect of structural factors intensified, especially in rural areas [4]. as a result, in 2016-2017 there was a decrease in the number of births. the number of first childbirth decreased both in absolute and relative terms from 50.9 thousand (42.8% of all births) in 2015 to 41.2 thousand in 2017 (40.2% of all births). the situation was mitigated by the fact that a large cohort of children who was born at the mid-1980s continues to remain in reproductive age. despite the fact that the total number of women aged 15-49 years since 2004 has been steadily declining, the number of women aged 30-34 years old is increasing. timely implementation of demographic policy measures stimulated the birth in this cohort of women from 30.7 thousand in 2015 to 31.9 thousand children born in 2016. however, due to a general decline in the birth rate in 2017, the number of children born to mothers aged 30-34 years – declined up to 29.1 thousand. in china due to the “one-child” policy there was a transition from the traditional to the modern type of the population replacement with moderate rates of demographic processes development. as a result, tfr decreased from 3.8 in 1975 to 1.6 births per woman at present. such a small family in a 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 6 1 9 6 8 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 belarus china b ir th s p e r w o m a n theoretical and scientifical journal 90 no. 1 / 2019 traditionally large, peasant and confucian country is the effect of a special super-efficient government population planning policy. that proves the possibility of applying management and ideological decisions, in addition to the direct economic mechanism. since 2014, as a result of the fertility policy adjustment, there has been a significant increase in the number of births, especially in 2016, when the number of newborns exceeded 17.86 million, it was the highest figure since 2000. however, over the past 40 years, especially in the post-reform years, irreversible changes have occurred in the mentality and value orientations of the new generations of chinese. a different posttraditional model of family and family relations have been formed with later marriages and one-child family. a significant number of young married couples make a conscious choice in favor of childlessness. the motivations for such a choice are connected both with the unwillingness to bear responsibility, self-centeredness and the hedonistic values of the “little emperors” generation, as well as with economic considerations. how government policy in belarus and china helps families with children, thereby stimulating fertility, is considered below. special program during the collapse of the ussr, belarus was in the process of the demographic transition. the depopulation, started in 1994, was the result of a dramatic decline in birth rates, which took place in the process of rising mortality. then, at state level, there was an awareness of the necessity to provide the legal foundation in the demographic sphere. in the period of 1994-1999 family law had the legal basis in: the constitution of the republic of belarus (1994), the marriage and family code (1999), the law protecting children's rights (1993), as well as a number of other laws, decrees and regulations. the guarantees provided by the labour code (1972, amended), with the prohibition to terminate employment contract, providing maternity leave to take care of a child under 3 years, the regulation of night work, overtime work etc. have become a real support for parents. in 1995, there was issued a decree, which developed additional measures for the protection of motherhood and childhood, providing one paid day off for single mothers and mothers with many children. despite the benefits and guarantees, the reproductive attitudes of the population have been transformed in the direction of reducing the real number of children born. as a result, the tfr decreased from 2 in 1989 to 1.2-1.3 births per woman in 1996. there was a strong issue to develop a set of measures aimed at increasing the birth rate. a breakthrough in the demographic policy was the adoption of the law “on demographic security” in 2002, which established the legal and organizational framework for regulating demographic processes. in accordance with this law, the national program for demographic security for 2007-2010 was developed and approved [7]. the main goal was to prevent future worsening of the demographic situation. the implementation of the measures of the program led to increase the tfr to 1.5 births per woman, although this was not enough. the next national program of demographic security of the republic of belarus for 2011-2015, among others, set the goal to increase the birth rate and strengthen the socio-economic support for families in connection with birth and upbringing of children [8]. according to the achievement of all the targets, the program was a success. tfr in 2015 was 1.7 births per woman. in comparison with the decrease of fertility at the beginning of 2000s, the intensity of fertility increased in almost all ages (graph 2). at the same time, the mean age at childbearing significantly increased from 25.6 in 2000 to 28.6 in 2015. currently, the national program “people’s health and demographic security for 2016-2020” is a continuation of the national programs, which is aimed to stabilize the population, by increasing the birth rate by improving mother and child health care system, developing support systems for families with children and improving their living conditions [9]. in china, population issue has always been a strategic issue. currently, the emphasis is on measures of birth control and reducing child and infant mortality with a flexible approach to employment issues and the status of women in society, and in the long term it is planned to solve the problems of the aging population and the development of the social security system. economy and sociology 91 no. 1/ 2019 graph 2. the age-specific fertility rates in belarus source: according to the hfd database. in accordance with the constitution of the people's republic of china, the law “on population and fertility planning” (as amended on december 27, 2015) was adopted in 2001 with the aim of coordinated development of population and economy, society, resources, environment, promotion of fertility planning, protection of rights and legitimate interests of citizens, promotion of family well-being, prosperity of the nation and social progress [10]. according to the latter, the government develops a plan for the development of population and includes it in the national socio-economic development plan. currently, in order to actively and effectively respond to the changes in population trends and its deep impact on economic and social development, supporting china’s long-term sustainable development, the national population development plan for 2016-2030 has been adopted [11]. this document prescribes the general requirements, main goals, strategic orientation and tasks of the national population during the planning period and it acts as a program document defining the development of the population over the next 15 years. this is an important basis for the full implementation of work in the field of socio-demographic development. in 2017, the population of china was 1,394 million people. since 2000, the annually population growth was no more than 0.57%, what is half less than the population growth from 1990 to 2000. in fact, this reflects the fact that china faces a decrease in the number of children born. tfr is 1.6 birth per woman of reproductive age. the policy of restricting the number of children in china was associated with both budgetary expenditures and limited natural resources, worsening environmental conditions, and the goal, which lies in raising the standard of living of the people. the basis for obtaining a positive effect from the government policy in china is to ensure a balance of interests of the population and the government. the goal of the policy of restricting the number of children is to improve the health of the next generation. thus, family planning implements the goal of both economic development and improvement of the quality of life of the population and provides an organizational and management basis for birth control [12]. the positive effect was achieved due to the following implemented measures:  family planning policy is integrated into the general management system; party and economic bodies are created at all levels from medical teams to special birth control committees), birth rates are included in the target indicators of socio-economic development programs.  systematic propaganda is carried out through its daily and widespread infiltration into the mass consciousness.  there has been implemented an integrated approach to measures of economic and material 0 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,1 0,12 0,14 1214 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 theoretical and scientifical journal 92 no. 1 / 2019 incentives for families with children: if there is one child in the family, the family is exempted from paying taxes on upbringing and education, and even receives a monthly allowance of 10% of salary; if there are more children, the family is deprived of certain opportunities for medical and domestic services, labor insurance, and is also obliged to pay a fine.  the social control system worked: material incentives are complemented with moral, negative sanctions are complemented with positive. for example, issuing to families voluntarily pledging to have only one child, “certificate of honor for single-child parents”.  family planning policies were distinguished by continuity, consistency and flexibility. however, government family planning for 40 years was one of the main factors in the formation of disproportions in the age and sex structure of the population (the excess of men over women, the decrease of the working age population and the growth in the number of older people, decrease of the average size of the chinese family to 3.1 people (2010 census) compared with 4.23 in 1988 [13]. the necessity to adjust the “one-child” policy has become obvious. in 2011, a new concept of the demographic policy “one married couple – two children” was proposed, if one of the spouses is an only child in the family. about 1 million married couples fall under this policy. in fact, permission to have a second child was obtained at the end of 2015, and the corresponding amendments to the “population and family planning law” entered into force on january 1, 2016. the “regulations” abolished maternity leave due to the late marriage and childbirth, as well as stimulating birth control measures were cancelled, currently the use of contraceptive measures is carried out conscientiously. currently the fine for unplanned birth of a child is imposed only on those families in which the child was born less than four years after the birth of the first and the age of the mother is less than 28 years. it is planned, that such measures will help to change the demographic situation in the country for the better, at the same time it is expected that it will not cause a sharp jump in the birth rate. the authorities, while easing the birth control policy, see the second child as an asset that in the future will ensure not only the stability of the pension system, but also social stability. however, the main factors of birth control today are no longer act as administrative restrictions, but the socio-economic conditions of the population. the reluctance to have children, among other reasons, is due to the fact that only women who work in big cities can feel socially protected in china. [14; 15] there is a serious problem for residents of remote (rural) areas, where there is a high unemployment rate and there is no social insurance. for the rural population there are almost no guarantees for pregnancy and childbirth. measures that promote the compatibility between work and family life of parents (labor guarantees for employees with children, encouraging fathers to become involved in the process of child-care, encouraging the expansion of the range of child-care services). a wide range of pro-natalist policies to stimulate fertility are being implemented in belarus today. belarus has kept the soviet rules on parental leave related to the birth of children. the duration of maternity leave is regulated by law and is not connected with work experience, position or other aspects of labor relations. maternity leave is provided to women for a period of 126 or 140 calendar days (in case of complicated childbirth). maternity leave begins 70 calendar days before the childbirth and ends 56 days after (70 days in case of birth of two or more children or complicated childbirth). since, at the time of maternity leave, the date of birth of the child can not be predicted, the woman takes the maternal leave at 30 weeks pregnant. as the minister of labor and social protection, i.a. kostevich rightly pointed out at the last meeting of the national council on gender policy (minsk, may 14, 2018): “belarus is one of the few countries that have left parental leave for children under three years old, realizing how important it is for the mother and child’s health” [16]. usually, women take a maternity leave. only 1% of men apply for parental leave for children aged up to 3 years. involving fathers in the process of childcare is a stimulating measure, which ensures the possibility of preserving women’s labor potential and the compatibility between work and family life. in belarus, organizational and legal conditions are created for the practical using of certain flexible forms of employment (flexible working hours, home-based work), there have been developed recommendations for employers on how to use them. economy and sociology 93 no. 1/ 2019 however, it is too early to judge the effectiveness of the implementation of policies aimed at supporting the competitiveness of women with children in the labor market. lack of flexible working hours and the low availability to childcare services for children under 3 years old is an obstacle for women who are ready to take full time work. in addition, when a woman starts to work full-time before the child is 3 years old, the amount of childcare benefit is reduced by half. as a result, only 10-13% of women start to work before the child reaches the age of 3 years [17]. currently in belarus, the number of children under 5 years with preschool education is 100% [18]. the network of preschool education is represented by more than 3.8 thousand institutions, which educate 426.2 thousand children. private kindergartens appear: currently there are only 10, 6 of them are located in minsk. the number of children under two years attending nursery and nursery groups was just over 1% of all children attending kindergartens. the low number of children under 2 years with preschool education is due to poorly developed system of providing services for this group of children. in belarus, parents pay only the cost of feeding the child, an exception being private kindergartens. in china the period of maternity leave depends on the age of the future mother. after 23 years, mother is considered of “advanced maternal age”, so maternity leave is 120 days, up to 23 years – 90 days; in case of birth of twins or complicated childbirth – + 15 days; for cesarean section – + 30 days. the total period is from 90 to 180 days. the future mother is allowed to take the maternity leave from the seventh month of pregnancy. usually, future mother can go on a maternity leave two weeks before the delivery, as prolonged absence from work is discouraged and it is punishable by sanctions affecting career growth and bonuses. the law “on population and fertility planning” of the people’s republic of china provides a number of other incentives. citizens who follow the late marriage and late childbirth policy can receive encouragement in the form of extended leave, in connection with marriage and maternity leave and other types of benefits. in accordance with the version of the law “on population and fertility planning”, which entered into force on january 1, 2016, several changes were adopted, such as the cancellation of maternity leave due to late marriage and late childbirth, the cancellation of the benefits due to the fact that there is already a child, as well as the extension of maternity leave and the provision of parental leave for the father to stimulate fertility. specific measures are being taken in provinces, autonomous regions and cities of central subordination in accordance with the law “on population and fertility planning”, approved by standing committee of the national people's congress. the labor code clearly defines that a woman has the right to take maternity leave for 90 or more days. usually, a pregnant woman goes on a maternity leave two weeks before the delivery, and goes back to work after 2.5 months after giving birth. in cases of late marriage and childbirth, maternity leave is extended to 4 months. if the future mother has a sick-list this time is paid like a sick-leave. maternity benefit’s amounts vary by region. attention should be paid to the fact that maternity benefit is not paid simultaneously with the salary, due to maternity leave. the payment will be made according to the higher cost of the benefit. if pregnancy is more than 7 months, then the employer is obliged to provide a break for one hour, and cannot make the future mother work the night shifts. in case of obtaining a permit from work, at the request of the employee herself, the employing company may apply for providing maternal leave to the employee for two and a half months. maternity benefit is paid in the amount of 80% of the basic salary of a woman per month. the time for examinations of pregnant women, including examination during the first 12 weeks, which coincides with working time is fully paid. a woman has the right to take 6.5 months maternity leave for breastfeeding if she has applied for maternity leave and has the permission of the organization. salary is paid in the amount of 80% of the salary of an employee during the period of breastfeeding, if employee wants to extend the maternity leave in case of special circumstances, future mother has to provide a medical certificate. salary rate for the extension of the maternity leave for breastfeeding is 70% of the employee’s salary. unlike belarus, china has very high costs for raising a child, including kindergartens. according to a study by shanghai academy of social sciences in 2004, the direct costs of raising one child before theoretical and scientifical journal 94 no. 1 / 2019 graduating from a university in the xuhui district of shanghai are about 480,000 cny (about 58,000 usd). the average cost of raising children in shanghai can be estimated at 1.66 million cny (about $ 246,000). [19]. according to the statistics from the state family planning committee, there is a number of reasons why chinese women do not want to have a second child: the economic burden is 74.5%, the need to pay much attention to child-care is more than 60%. such factors as increasing costs on raising a child, a desire for career growth, and a higher standard of living have a restraining effect on the implementation of reproductive attitudes. the cost of raising children in chinese families is about 50% of total family income. the main part of the expenses consist of education costs [20]. financial transfers (family allowances, child-care allowances for social and public services, tax deductions for families with children). the solution of the problem how to increase the birth rate should be closely linked to the ensuring a high quality of life for mother and child. currently, young parents are stimulated through effective economic incentives for childbirth and child rearing, which creates a significant burden on the social protection fund. more than 20% of the fund's expenses are accounted for the payment of temporary disability, maternity, family, child care, and disabled person care benefits. a significant form of social support for families with children in belarus are maternity, family and temporary disability allowances (table 1). table 1 benefits for families raising children in belarus maternal parental maternity benefit average daily salary for 126 or 140 calendar days childbirth 1 10 minimum subsistence budget; 2 + 14 minimum subsistence budget; registration before the 12th week of pregnancy minimum subsistence budget child care for a child up to 3 years 1 35% of the average salary; 2+ 40% of the average salary; disabled person 45% of the average salary; in the chernobyl npp zone 150% of the amount of the allowance; temporary disability for a child aged 3-18 years while raising a child under 3 years old 50% of minimum subsistence budget; to care for a sick child up to 14 years old, a disabled child up to 18 years old average daily salary for all days of sick leave for children aged 3-18 years from certain categories of families (disabled parent, parent involved in regular service, disabled child, child with hiv) 50% of minimum subsistence budget; disabled child and child with hiv 70% of minimum subsistence budget; to care for a child up to 14 years old, a disabled child up to 18 years old, in case the person caring for a child is ill to care for a disabled child under the age of 18 (if the parents are not employed or work parttime) 1 and 2 degree of invalidity– 100% of minimum subsistence budget; 3 and 4 degree of invalidity– 120% of minimum subsistence budget; to care for a disabled child up to 18 years for his sanatorium-resort treatment, medical rehabilitation *average per capita minimum subsistence budget is 206,58 byn or 85 euro (the 1st may, 2018) economy and sociology 95 no. 1/ 2019 the amount of benefit is regularly reviewed and increased. the most serious changes occurred on january 1, 2013, after the law “on state benefits for families raising children” entered into force, in accordance with which monthly allowances for childcare for children aged up to 3 years were significantly increased. earlier the amount of allowance was 100% of the subsistence minimum budget (in accordance with article 13 of law no. 1898-xii of october 30, 1992 “on state benefits for families raising children”), i.e. 880 thousand rubles, then the new law connected the allowance to the average monthly salary in the country. thus, the benefit for the first child increased by 60% (35% of the average monthly salary); for the second and subsequent child by 80% (40% of the average monthly wage). this was an effective incentive for giving a birth to a second child and another children, especially in rural areas. in 2013, rural fertility was the maximum for the entire 2000s. in order to strengthen government support for the population of low-income and difficult-to-live families, state targeted social assistance has been strengthened since 2012 in belarus [21]. for families with twins or more children, such assistance is provided regardless of the size of the average per capita income. such families are also eligible for a free babysitting service until the children reach 3 years old. in 2017, state targeted social assistance in the total amount of 87.9 million byn was provided to 310.2 thousand people, among this, 28 thousand children were provided with food worth 22.1 million byn. the main recipients of monthly and one-time social benefits are traditionally large and incomplete families raising minor children, which was 67% in 2017. among families, provided with food, large families hold the leading position with 42%. awareness of the possibility of facing a decrease in the birth rate has set to the government new challenges in finding additional incentives to support families with children. from january 1, 2015, a new monthly allowance for families with children aged from 3 to 18 years has been introduced during the period of raising a child. a breakthrough in family policy was the introduction of a fundamentally new measure of long-term support for large families – the amount of $ 10,000 at birth, when family gives birth or adopts third or more children. as at january 1, 2018, 47 405 “family capital” deposit accounts were opened in asc “asb belarusbank” in the amount of 474.05 million dollars. families can use the funds when the child reaches 18 years old to improve their living conditions; to get education or social services, to form a cumulative (additional) pension for a mother (stepmother) in an entire family, a parent in an incomplete family, and also to receive early health services. for the certain categories of citizens (mostly low-income and large families, families with disabled children) a number of other benefits is provided: textbooks fees; preferences for admission, the right to receive a loan on favorable terms for tuition fees, the provision of essential drugs, tax incentives. today in china, the provision of medical care and the payment of material benefits during the period of maternity leave is regulated by the temporary rules for pregnancy and birth insurance of employees. contributions for pregnancy and childbirth insurance are made by the enterprise to the social insurance bodies in a certain proportion of the company's wage fund. in beijing, pregnancy and childbirth insurance is now 0.8% and it is paid by the company [22]. recipients of social guarantees are employees of both sexes (mother or father). pregnancy insurance is paid by the employing company in the amount of 0.6% of the base value of the city where the organization is registered. the term of the required insurance premiums varies from place to place. for example, in beijing it is required that the continuity of contributions should last for at least 9 months, in guangzhou city – the period of accumulative contributions is over a year, and in shanghai if an employee has made a contribution in the month of birth of the child, he is considered insured. for insured workers, there is a system of reimbursement for the costs of pregnancy, medical obstetric care, surgery, treatment in the clinic and the provision of medicine. the amount of compensation for medical expenses is set at a time, excessive costs are not reimbursed by pregnancy and childbirth insurance. the amount of compensation is setted according to the province, city theoretical and scientifical journal 96 no. 1 / 2019 or village. for example, in the shaoxing city (zhejiang province), the allowance for uncomplicated childbirth is 2.5 thousand yuan (us $ 380), for complicated childbirth and the delivery of more than one child – 3.5 thousand yuan (530 us dollars), cesarean section – 5,000 yuan ($ 760). due to planned fertility policy, some types of medical care costs are also reimbursed, for example premature birth and sterilization costs. in shaoxing city, the reimbursement amount ranges from 0.5 to 3 thousand yuan. the maternity benefit itself is understood as the salary for the period of pregnancy and childbirth. pregnancy benefits are calculated and issued by the relevant social insurance authority, based on the average monthly wage of the employee in the previous year. in shaoxing city there is established the number of days for transferring benefits in some cases: childbirth after 7 months of pregnancy (including 7 months) – 128 days, for complicated childbirth – 143 days, for caesarean section – 143 days, for multiple births – 15 days for each child, abortion up to 4 months of pregnancy – 15 days, with abortion less than 4 months of pregnancy (inclusive) – 42 days. childcare allowance which is provided to the father is paid within 15 days. if a woman had an uncomplicated childbirth, she spent 3,500 cny (1,000 cny above the norm) on medical care, the average monthly salary for the previous year was 4,500 cny, then she receives an allowance of 4,500 ÷ 30 × 128 + (3,500-1,000 ) = 21,700 cny. previously, the government issued the “certificate of honor for single-child parents” to parents who, throughout their lives, had brought only one child during the period when the government encouraged the birth of one child by one married couple. since january 1, 2016, after changing the family planning policy, spouses who gave birth to one child on a voluntary basis don’t receive anymore the “certificate of honor for single-child parents” and they are not eligible to receive appropriate benefits. those who have already received the “certificate of honor for single-child parents” continue to enjoy benefits according with the established provisions and criteria in the field of family planning. according to state regulations, the provisions of provinces, autonomous regions, cities of central subordination, there is a number of benefits for families who have a “certificate of honor for parents of an only child”. in accordance with the directive “on further work on planned fertility”, issued by the cpc central committee and the state council of the people's republic of china, from 1982, childcare benefit for one child is paid throughout china in the amount of 10 cny, 50% of the amount is paid by each parent’s company per month . for example, currently in guangdong province, the following benefits are established in accordance with the regulation “on population and family planning” [23]: ˗ workers and employees, residents of cities and towns, are paid a one-time child health benefit every month, starting from the date of issue of the “certificate of honor for single-child parents” and until the child reaches the age of fourteen. the amount of child health benefit and incentive payments are made in the amount of 50% by the employing organization of each parent. the question of benefits for those who do not work is decided on a comprehensive basis by local people's governments. for residents of cities and towns, family planning allowance is paid according to certain criteria (usually, the payment is 1,000 cny and above) for parents of an only child who have reached the age of 60 for men and 55 for women; ˗ residents of rural areas receive benefits or old-age pension from local people's governments; ˗ in case of death or disability of an only child, and if married couples no longer have or have not adopted a child, the government pays benefits; ˗ under equal conditions, first of all, they provide care for families with an only child, primarily when there are questions about employment, living quarters, helping the poor, taking a child to kindergarten and school, medical care for a child, etc.; ˗ extension of the duration of maternity leave for 35 days, with the exception of maternity leave, set by the state; the husband has the right to receive parental leave for child care for 10 days. maternity and parental leave are fully paid. on january 1, 2016, in the regulation “on population and family planning” in guangzhou province, in chapter 3 “on birth control” a number of articles restricting the category of increasing the planned fertility and the category of late marriage and childbirth was also canceled. in this economy and sociology 97 no. 1/ 2019 regulation, stimulating contraceptive measures was also abolished, and currently the use of contraceptive measures is carried out on a voluntary basis. if the provisions of laws, subordination or departmental acts provided for the use by the company-employer individual incentive measures for parents who have an only child throughout their life, the company has to take these measures. if the staff or organization is the leader in the results of work and achievements in the field of planned fertility, the amended legislation provides the declaration of gratitude and the provision of material rewards. planned childbirth incentive payments in administrative and non-manufacturing organizations are covered by the organization’s annual budget in the amount of 5 percent of the average salary of employees for the previous year at the county location (city, district). planned childbirth incentive payments can be received in the amount of not more than 2% of annual taxable income. in case of injury due to an accident or the death of an only child, local people's governments are required to provide the necessary assistance to the parents. older people, who should receive benefits or who need to be given an assistance in accordance with the birth planning policy during the period when the state encourages the birth of one child by one couple, continue to receive appropriate benefits and assistance. local people's governments at all levels provide to rural households, which follow fertility planning policies, support for the development of the agriculture with money, technology, training, benefits; poor households following fertility planning policies are given high priority by providing loans to struggle against poverty, providing jobs, implement projects to struggle against poverty, and provide social assistance. special measures one of the main measures to implement the government family policy in the republic of belarus is to create conditions for economic independence and growth of family well-being, including lending and partial subsidization of families building and purchasing housing, maintaining preferential housing for young and large families [4]. to a greater extent, housing support becomes an incentive for the birth of third and subsequent children. but there is no special research. as at 2011-2015 in terms of housing policy financial assistance of the government was provided to 55 thousand large families, especially, in repayment of debts on concessional and non-concessional loans for housing construction. in china in order to respect human rights and the principles of gender equality, to minimize abuse of women and girls, the law prohibits discrimination against women who have given birth to girls or against infertile women, as well as discrimination, abuse or abandonment of newborn girls. the use of ultrasound technology and other technical methods for determining the sex of embryos for non-medical purposes is strictly prohibited; artificial termination of pregnancy based on the choice of the sex of the child, not for medical purposes is strictly prohibited. conclusion. in recent decades, birth control policy in belarus and china has been carried out in different ways, both organizationally and strategically. the birth control policy in modern belarus is part of the demographic policy and has a pro-natalistic goal. in china, for nearly 40 years, a birth control policy has been pursued. only since 2016, due to the transformation of policy in china, a number of articles has been cancelled, limiting the category of increasing the planned fertility and the category of late marriage and childbirth. in belarus and china, families with children are a special object of the government policy. belarus has focused on alleviating economic difficulties for families with children, especially in the first years after the childbirth. the republic of belarus has developed a system of government support for families with children, which includes various types of benefits. the way of supporting families with children also includes assistance to large families (with 3 or more children) for the school year, provision of a social and maternity benefits. a fairly effective measure was financial assistance to families (especially those with many children) in purchasing housing. theoretical and scientifical journal 98 no. 1 / 2019 in general, the system works in such a way that a woman can be on parental leave until the child is 3 years old: the whole period is paid for benefits, nursery places are few, private kindergartens are more the exception and the payment is very high relative to the average wage. a whole layer of support for large families allows to stimulate the birth of the 3 children in the last years. although the effect of new measures is manifested only in the first years and rather accelerates the birth of the next child, than influencing the change in family attitudes. in china, there is no such comprehensive targeted support for families with children as in belarus. as there is no preferential housing loans. the system of financial support in china includes both universal benefits, and those that depend on the territory of residence or assignment to certain categories. it should be noted that patriarchal value systems continues to be maintained in belarus: it is provided a long-term maternity leave to take care for a child under 3 years old, 99% of mothers and only 1% of fathers or other relatives are provided with parental leave. in china women are provided only with maternity leave, so they have no opportunity to lose their qualifications due to the long leave from the work process. however, it complicates and increases the cost of childcare. in china, measures may vary by territory. there is no differentiation in belarus. this, in turn, does not allow to take into account the peculiarities of reproductive attitudes, for example, in the city and the village (in rural areas the amount of the allowance coincides with the size of the average salary of a woman, in the city there is an urgent need for infrastructure development and flexible employment conditions). in both countries, there is a lack of flexibility in the ability to combine both childcare and professional implementation, and there is poorly developed gender quality, which is the basis of birth control programs in developed countries. references 1. esping-andersen, gosta. incomplete revolution: adapting welfare states to women's new roles. cambridge: polity press. 2009. 200 p. isbn 978-0-745-64316-8. 2. yu, j., xie, y. the effect of fertility on women’s wages in china. in: population research. 2014, vol. 38 (1), pp. 18-29. issn 1000-6087. 3. zheng, z. supports are needed for women to work and take care of children in the same time. in: collection of women’s studies. 2016, vol. 25 (2), pp. 5-7. 4. šahot̒ko, l.p., šahot̒ko, d.v. domohozâjstvo, sem΄â i semejnaâ politika v belarusi. naciоnal̒naâ akademiâ nauk belarusi, institut ѐkonomiji. minsk: belaruskaâ nauka, 2018. 400 s. 5. mao, z., luo, h. difference between fertility intention and fertility behavior for women subject to the two-children policy: an empirical study based on the theory of planned behavior. in: population research, 2013, vol. 37 (1), pp. 84-93. 6. mao, z., lin, x., tai, x., wang, j. breasting support for two-child professional women: a case study of beijing, china. in: asian women. 2018, vol. 34, no. 2, june, pp. 111-134. 7. ukaz prezidenta respubliki belarus΄ ob utverždenii nacional̒noj programmy demografičeskoj bezopasnosti respubliki belarus΄ na 2007-2010 gody: № 135 ot 26 marta 2007 г. minsk, 2018. 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[accesat 16.05.2018]. disponibil: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-01/25/content_5163309.htm 12. kašina, m.a. malodetnost΄ v rossii i kitae: shodstvo rezul΄tatov pri različii pričin. v: demografičeakie problemy rossii: vzglâd iz prošlogo v buduŝee. spb, 2011, ss. 52-66. http://www.gov.cn/english/laws/2005-10/11/content_75954.htm economy and sociology 99 no. 1/ 2019 13. počagina, o. izmenenie politiki "odna sem΄â odin rebетщл" v kitae: pričiny i ožidaemye rezul΄taty. v: problemy dal΄nego vostoka". 2014, № 3, ss. 94-106. 14. trial measures for maternity insurance for enterprise employees. [accesat 17.05.2018]. disponibil: http://www.gov.cn/banshi/2005-08/21/content_25067.htm 15. special provisions on labor protection for female employees. state council order of people's republic of china: no. 619. [accesat 16.05.2018]. disponibil: http://www.gov.cn/flfg/201205/07/content_2131582.htm 16. paket mer po stimulirovaniû rojdaemosti budet razrabatyvat΄sâ v belarusi – kostevič. minsk, 2018, 14 maâ. [accesat 14.05.2018]. disponibil: http://www.belta.by/society/view/paket-merpo-stimulirovaniju-rozhdaemosti-budet-razrabatyvatsja-v-belarusi-kostevich-302631-2018/ 17. rudyj, k.v. gendernye factory rosta èkonomiki belarusi. v: belorusskij ѐkonomičeskij žurnal. 2015, № 4, ss. 23-32. 18. upravlenie doškol΄nogo obrazovaniâ. ministerstvo obrazovaniâ respubliki belarus΄. 2011-2018. [accesat 14.05.2018]. disponibil: http://edu.gov.by/sistema-obrazovaniya/glavnoe-upravlenieobshchego-srednego-doshkolnogo-i-spetsialnogo-obrazovaniya/doshkolnoe-obrazovanie 19. xu, a. children's utility characteristics and structure changes in the transition period. in: youth research. 2005, vol. 12 (1008-1437), pp. 9-15. 20. li, h. the cost of raising a baby is too high. seventy percent won't want it any more. people's daily. [accesat 17.05.2018]. disponibil: http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0123/c100429042746.html 21. ucaz prezidenta respubliki belarus΄ o gosudarstvennoj adresnoj social΄noj pomoŝi: № 41 ot 19 ânvarâ 2012 g. nacional΄nyj centr pravovoj informacii respubliki belarus΄. minsk, 2018. [accesat 17.05.2018]. disponibil: http://mintrud.gov.by/system/extensions/spaw/uploads/files/ukazprezidenta-respubliki-belarus-41-1.pdf 22. social support administrative measures for the collection of social support of beijing. 19982018. [accesat 17.05.2018]. disponibil: http://www.beijing.gov.cn/zhengce/wenjian/192/33/50/438650/75443/index.html 23. measures for the implementation of the special provisions on labor protection for female employees in guangdong province. [accesat 16.05.2018]. disponibil: http://zwgk.gd.gov.cn/006939748/201612/t20161223_686764.html recommended for publication: 21.06.2019 http://mintrud.gov.by/system/extensions/spaw/uploads/files/ukaz-prezidenta-respubliki-belarus-41-1.pdf http://mintrud.gov.by/system/extensions/spaw/uploads/files/ukaz-prezidenta-respubliki-belarus-41-1.pdf economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 18 an auto-regressive integrated moving average model of inflation in moldova with some observations on the inflation outlook doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-02 apostolos papaphilippou, phd, four assist development consulting limited https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2193-4035, e-mail: papaphilippou@4assist.eu the author holds a phd in economics from the university of cambridge and is currently the economic development planning expert of the eu-funded technical assistance project “support the moldovan government in identifying and preparing projects linked to the implementation of the association agreement”. the tables and graphs contained in the paper have been generated using the eviews econometrics programme. the views expressed in the article are personal. the article has benefitted from comments and suggestions by the journal’s reviewers. received 7 december 2021 accepted for publication 18 may 2022 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2193-4035 mailto:papaphilippou@4assist.eu economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 19 abstract the paper discusses the properties of auto-regressive integrated moving average (arima) models and proceeds to estimate a model for the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate in moldova from january 2013 to october 2021. the aim of the paper is to develop a model relying exclusively upon the historical evolution of inflation as an additional instrument for forecasting purposes. the estimated model explains close to 97 % of the monthly variation of the inflation rate over the model’s estimation period and is used to generate forecasts of the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate in short to medium term. the arima-generated forecasts suggest that the acceleration of inflation which characterised the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate in 2021 up to october 2021 will continue in the next four months, with the inflation rate peaking at 12 % in february 2022 and slowly decelerating from that point onwards towards the 5 % inflation target in the longer term. the paper concludes by suggesting areas for further work and briefly discussing the inflation outlook for the moldovan economy, considering current international and domestic economic conditions. natural areas for further work would be to regularly update the econometric estimates and forecasts of the estimated arima model as the economy evolves through time. with regard to the inflation outlook, the analysis contained in the concluding section of the paper suggests that the future evolution of inflation is likely to be more pessimistic than the arima-based generated forecast. keywords: auto-regressive integrated moving average models, inflation, moldova articolul relevă proprietățile modelelor autoregresive integrate de medie mobilă (arima) și prezintă un model de estimare a evoluției lunare a ratei anuale a inflației în moldova din ianuarie 2013 până în octombrie 2021. scopul lucrării îl reprezintă dezvoltarea unui model bazat în exclusivitate pe evoluția istorică a inflației ca instrument suplimentar de prognozare. modelul estimat explică aproape 97 % din fluctuațiile lunare ale ratei inflației în perioada de estimare a modelului și este utilizat pentru a genera previziuni ale evoluției lunare a ratei anuale a inflației pe termen scurt și mediu. prognozele generate de arima sugerează că accelerarea inflației. care a caracterizat evoluția lunară a ratei anuale a inflației de la începutul anului 2021 până în octombrie 2021. va continua în următoarele patru luni, astfel, rata inflației atingând un vârf de 12 % în februarie 2022 și înregistrând o scădere lentă din acel moment spre ținta de inflație de 5 % pe termen lung. articolul se încheie prin sugerarea domeniilor de lucru și discutarea pe scurt a perspectivelor inflaționiste pentru economia republicii moldova, ținând cont de condițiile economice internaționale și interne actuale. activitățile ulterioare ar trebui să se axeze în mod firesc pe actualizarea sistematică a estimărilor și previziunilor econometrice ale modelului estimat arima pe măsură ce economia evoluează în timp. în ceea ce privește perspectiva inflației, analiza cuprinsă în secțiunea finală a lucrării sugerează că evoluția viitoare a inflației ar putea să fie mai pesimistă decât prognoza generată de arima. cuvinte cheie: modele autoregresive integrate de medie mobilă, inflație, moldova в статье представлены свойства интегрированной модели авторегрессии-скользящего среднего (arima) и проводится оценка модели ежемесячной эволюции годового уровня инфляции в молдове с января 2013 г. по октябрь 2021 г. целью статьи является разработка модели, опирающейся исключительно на историческую эволюцию инфляции как дополнительного инструмента для прогнозирования. расчетная модель объясняет почти 97 % месячных колебаний уровня инфляции в течение расчетного периода модели и используется для создания прогнозов месячного изменения годового уровня инфляции в краткосрочной и среднесрочной перспективе. прогнозы составленные arima предполагают, что ускорение инфляции, которое характеризовало ежемесячную динамику годового уровня инфляции c начала 2021 г. по октябрь 2021 г., продолжится в следующие четыре месяца, при этом уровень инфляции достигнет пика на уровне 12 % в феврале 2022 г. и с этого момента зарегистрирует economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 20 медленный спад до целевого уровня инфляции 5% в долгосрочной перспективе. статья завершается предложением областей для дальнейшей работы и кратким обсуждением инфляционных перспектив молдавской экономики с учетом текущих международных и внутренних экономических условий. естественными областями для дальнейшей работы было бы регулярное обновление эконометрических оценок и прогнозов модели arima по мере развития экономики во времени. что касается перспектив инфляции, анализ, содержащийся в заключительном разделе статьи, предполагает, что будущая эволюция инфляции, вероятно, будет более пессимистичной, чем прогноз, созданный на основе arima. ключевые слова: интегрированная модель авторегрессии-скользящего среднего, инфляция, молдова. jel classification: c22, e31, e37 udc: 330.4+336.748.12(478) introduction auto-regressive integrated moving average (arima) models are widely used in empirical work for analytical and forecasting purposes. the aim of this paper is to estimate an arima model on the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate in moldova, use the estimated model to generate short to medium-term monthly forecasts of the annual inflation rate in moldova and discuss further these forecasts taking into account the current economic conditions and trends, both domestic and international. this research intends to develop a model of inflation relying exclusively upon the historical evolution of the monthly annual inflation rate as an additional instrument for short to medium term forecasting purposes. an additional empirical model to assist the forecasting of the inflation rate in moldova will be useful given the importance of inflation forecasting for macroeconomic management in general and the conduct of monetary policy in particular. the paper is organised as follows: following a discussion section on the properties and estimation of arima models, the paper presents the data to be used for the estimation. this is followed by a section which includes the econometric estimates of the arima model and its forecasts. the paper concludes by suggesting areas for further work and discussing the inflation outlook for the moldovan economy briefly. on arima models: a brief literature survey arima models are widely used for analytical and forecasting purposes. though frequently atheoretical arima models have proved to be useful tools in order: • to provide insight and analyse the data-generating process of a particular time series; and • to generate forecasts of the time series in question. in particular, the forecasts generated by arima models are frequently used as benchmarks: the generated forecasts are taken into account and are combined with other economic indicators and additional empirical analysis of the structural characteristics of the economy under consideration and its external environment. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 21 arima models stemmed from the work of box and jenkins (1970). they are linear models that incorporate two types of dynamic processes: an autoregressive process and a moving average process. in more detail, for a time series variable, yt: 1. an auto-regressive (ar) process is one where the current value of yt is a function of its own past values and an error term, ut: yt = f (yt-1, yt-2, ...) + ut 2. a moving average (ma) process is one where the contemporaneous value of yt is a function of past as well as contemporaneous values of the error term, ut yt = g (ut-1, ut-2, ...) + ut the first step in developing an arima model is to ensure that the time series that will be modelled is stationary or, in other words, that the series to be modelled by an arima model does not contain a unit root, as it is well-known that a non-stationary time-series may give rise to spurious regressions. a time-series that follows a stationary process has the property that its mean, variance and autocorrelation structure is finite and constant over time. stationarity is tested through statistical tests. if the time series under investigation is not stationary, following the box and jenkins methodology, the first difference of the time series is taken, and the resulting time series is subsequently tested for stationarity. the differencing process is repeated until the resulting time series is stationary. the number of times the time series in question has to be differenced in order to arrive at a stationary series determines the order of integration of the arima model. an arima model could be characterised by a vector of three numbers (p,d,q), where: • p refers to the number of lags in the ar process in the model; • d refers to the order of integration (i.e. the number of times the time-series needs to be differenced to obtain a stationary series); and • q is the number of lags in the ma process in the model. at the arima model identification stage, the researcher also seeks to analyse briefly the property of the time series under investigation, including determining whether the dependent time series exhibits seasonality and identifying the order for the seasonal autoregressive and/or seasonal moving average terms. the model’s identification requires the exercise of informed judgement supplemented by diagnostic tools and tests. graphs of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions are frequently employed to determine the number of lags in modelling the ar and/or the ma process in the specified arima model. the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions are summarised in the correlogram of the time series, which displays the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions up to the specified number of lags. in particular: • the autocorrelation function displays the coefficients of correlation between a time series and lags of the same series, while • by partial autocorrelation we refer to the correlation between a variable and a lag of itself that is not explained by the correlations of all lower-order-lags. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 22 it is well known that: • a pure ar process is characterised by a geometrically decaying autocorrelation function, while the partial auto-correlation function drops to zero after a number of lags. the spikes in the partial autocorrelation function are indicative of the ar order to be introduced in the model’s specification; • for a pure ma process: the number of spikes in the autocorrelation function is indicative of the ma order to be introduced in the specification. an ma process is characterised by a geometrically decaying partial autocorrelation function and an autocorrelation function that drops to zero after a few lags. • if the correlogram of a time series is characterised by geometrically decaying autocorrelation and partial auto-correlation functions, this is indicative that a mixed ar and ma process may be the appropriate specification. finally, one of the aims of the arima model identification and selection process is to arrive at a model that: 1. is parsimonious, or as small as possible; while, at the same time, 2. passes the diagnostic tests. a parsimonious arima model is desirable because: • including irrelevant time-lags in the model increases the coefficient standard errors (and therefore reduces their t-statistics). • models that incorporate large numbers of time-lags tend not to forecast well: these models are more likely to fit data-specific features of the data under estimation (thus explaining much of the random features in the data set rather than providing a better reflection of the underlying data generating process). in the estimation and testing steps of the model development, various descriptive statistics and statistical tests are employed to assist the analysis, model selection and validation. these also include information criteria used to compare different alternative specifications and balance the goodness of fit requirement with the need for a parsimonious (i.e. simple) specification. variants of arima-type models have been used to analyse empirically certain aspects of the inflationary process in a number of economies and have proven to be useful instruments for analytical and forecasting purposes. the paper by meyler et al. (1998) used arima models to forecast inflation in ireland. the article by kelikume and salami (2014) developed an arima model and a vector auto-regression model to forecast inflation in nigeria. the study by pintilescu et al. (2015) estimated a variant of a seasonal arima model to empirically analyse romania's inflation rate. the paper by samrad et al. (2021) developed an arima model to forecast the annual inflation rate in iran. within the context of the moldovan economy, the paper by mija et al. (2013) developed a vector autoregression model to evaluate the second round effects on core inflation. data set the data set we use in our estimation and forecasting work is the monthly evolution of the annual growth rate of the consumer price index in moldova over the period from january 2013 to october 2021. the data source is the website of the national bank of moldova which reproduces the monthly estimates compiled by the national bureau of statistics of moldova. the data exclude the transnistrian region and are rounded to the first decimal place. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 23 table 1 below presents the data set used in our empirical work. table 1: data set 2013m01 4.7 2015m01 4.7 2017m01 3.0 2019m01 2.2 2021m01 0.2 2013m02 4.4 2015m02 6.5 2017m02 4.7 2019m02 2.4 2021m02 0.6 2013m03 4.2 2015m03 7.1 2017m03 5.1 2019m03 2.8 2021m03 1.5 2013m04 4.5 2015m04 7.6 2017m04 6.6 2019m04 3.2 2021m04 2.8 2013m05 5.7 2015m05 8.1 2017m05 7.4 2019m05 4.6 2021m05 3.1 2013m06 5.5 2015m06 8.3 2017m06 7.3 2019m06 4.4 2021m06 3.2 2013m07 4.3 2015m07 8.6 2017m07 7.3 2019m07 5.4 2021m07 3.5 2013m08 3.7 2015m08 12.2 2017m08 7.3 2019m08 5.5 2021m08 4.6 2013m09 3.9 2015m09 12.6 2017m09 7.6 2019m09 6.3 2021m09 6.7 2013m10 4.7 2015m10 13.2 2017m10 7.9 2019m10 6.8 2021m10 8.8 2013m11 4.9 2015m11 13.5 2017m11 7.3 2019m11 7.1 2013m12 5.2 2015m12 13.6 2017m12 7.3 2019m12 7.5 2014m01 5.1 2016m01 13.4 2018m01 6.0 2020m01 6.9 2014m02 5.4 2016m02 10.3 2018m02 5.0 2020m02 6.4 2014m03 5.7 2016m03 9.4 2018m03 4.7 2020m03 5.9 2014m04 5.8 2016m04 8.3 2018m04 3.7 2020m04 5.3 2014m05 4.7 2016m05 7.9 2018m05 2.8 2020m05 4.1 2014m06 5.0 2016m06 7.4 2018m06 3.2 2020m06 4.3 2014m07 5.3 2016m07 7.0 2018m07 3.0 2020m07 4.2 2014m08 4.8 2016m08 3.6 2018m08 3.2 2020m08 3.5 2014m09 4.8 2016m09 3.0 2018m09 2.4 2020m09 2.3 2014m10 4.8 2016m10 2.5 2018m10 1.2 2020m10 1.6 2014m11 4.8 2016m11 2.6 2018m11 0.9 2020m11 0.9 2014m12 4.7 2016m12 2.4 2018m12 0.9 2020m12 0.4 source: national bank of moldova reproducing data compiled by the national bureau of statistics of moldova figure 1 portrays the evolution of the above data set graphically. it is notable that from january 2021 onwards the inflation rate has accelerated throughout the period up to and including october 2021. figure 1: graph of the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate in moldova 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 p source: national bank of moldova reproducing data compiled by the national bureau of statistics of moldova economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 24 monetary policy in moldova aims at retaining the inflation rate in the economy within a corridor of plus/minus 1.5 % around the 5 % inflation target. main results: econometric estimates and forecasts we first establish that the time series we will be using in our estimation and forecasting work is stationary. the stationarity test reported in table 2 below indicates that the probability that the time series under investigation has unit root is only around 5 %. table 2: stationarity test null hypothesis: p has a unit rootv exogenous: constant lag length: 2 (automatic based on sic, maxlag=12) t-statistic prob.* augmented dickey-fuller test statistic -2.878840 0.0513 test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level -3.495021 -2.889753 -2.581890 *mackinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. source: eviews-generated estimates on the data set the absence of a unit root implies that we may fit an arima model to the actual data set with no need to difference the time series under consideration prior to the estimation. it is well-known that the monthly evolution of inflation in moldova is likely to exhibit significant seasonality due to a large extent to the behaviour of the food component of the index which varies in line with the supply conditions over the year. our econometric work suggests that a simple (2,0,1) arima model augmented with sar(12) and sma(12) terms to capture the inherent seasonality of the time series under consideration provides a very good fit over the data set. table 3 below provides the least squares estimates of our preferred arima model. table 3: regression results dependent variable: p method: least squares sample (adjusted): 2014m03 2021m10 included observations: 92 after adjustments convergence achieved after 11 iterations ma backcast: 2013m02 2014m02 variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 5.258628 0.502349 10.46807 0.0000 ar(1) 1.726945 0.146173 11.81436 0.0000 ar(2) -0.749913 0.143360 -5.230959 0.0000 sar(12) -0.292854 0.110904 -2.640600 0.0098 ma(1) -0.467144 0.187500 -2.491437 0.0146 sma(12) -0.888992 0.030036 -29.59724 0.0000 r-squared 0.969843 mean dependent var 5.423913 adjusted r-squared 0.968090 s.d. dependent var 3.050072 s.e. of regression 0.544848 akaike info criterion 1.686375 sum squared resid 25.52992 schwarz criterion 1.850839 log likelihood -71.57323 hannan-quinn criter. 1.752754 f-statistic 553.1487 durbin-watson stat 2.001435 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 source: eviews-generated estimates economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 25 the data sample used for the estimation reported in table 3 covers the period from march 2014 to october 2021 as it must take into account the lagged structure of our preferred arima model. it is notable that all the individual terms of the regression equation reported in table 3 are statistically significant, while the r-squared statistic suggests that the regression explains close to 97 % of the monthly variation of the annual inflation rate over the period of the estimation. figure 2: provides the actual, fitted and residual estimates of the above regression figure 2: actual, fitted and residuals graph of the regression reported in table 3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 0 4 8 12 16 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 residual actual fitted source: eviews-generated estimates we use our arima model to generate forecasts of the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate from november 2021 to january 2025. figure 3 provides the evolution of the arima-generated forecast over the above period, while table 4 presents the results rounded to the first decimal point for the next 12 months. we emphasise the short-term forecasts as it is well-known that arima models are more efficient for short to medium-term forecasting. figure 3: figure of the forecasted evolution of the inflation rate -4 0 4 8 12 16 iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 pf ± 2 s.e. source: eviews-generated estimates economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 26 the generated forecasts suggest that the acceleration of inflation which characterised the evolution of inflation in the first ten months of 2021 will continue for the next four months. table 4: forecasts of the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate over the period november 2021 to october 2021 2021m11 10.2 2022m05 10.3 2021m12 10.9 2022m06 10.0 2022m01 11.5 2022m07 9.1 2022m02 12.0 2022m08 8.6 2022m03 11.4 2022m09 7.2 2022m04 10.4 2022m10 5.6 source: eviews-generated estimates the arima forecasts reported in graph 3 and table 4 above suggest that the annual inflation rate in moldova will peak at 12 % in february 2022 and slowly decelerate from that point onwards towards the 5 % inflation target in the longer term. we will discuss further the inflation outlook for the moldovan economy in the next and final section of the paper. conclusion: areas for further work and discussion on the inflation outlook in moldova a natural area for further work would be to update the arima econometric estimates reported in this paper and the model’s forecasts as the economy evolves through time in the future and use the results for monitoring and analytical purposes. as discussed in our literature review section above, the forecasts generated by arima models should be taken as benchmarks that need to be adjusted taking into account other relevant economic indicators to arrive at a forecast reflecting professional judgement. it is notable that under current conditions, inflation is likely to accelerate in the months to come in moldova. the inflation outlook internationally has deteriorated recently, though most analysts expect that the acceleration of inflation will be only temporary. recent economic developments are also likely to contribute to this acceleration in inflation. these include the recent increase in the international and domestic price of food (whose share is very significant in the consumer price index basket in moldova) the international and domestic price of energy (a key input into the production process and thus a cost-push factor in the short term), as well as the increases in salaries and pensions in moldova, with the latter likely to increase domestic demand in the economy. the inflation expectations will also influence the future evolution of inflation in the moldovan economy and the monetary policy and fiscal policy stance. with regard to expectations, while there are no widely available surveys of inflation expectations in the moldovan economy, the risk here is that, with the ongoing acceleration of inflation experienced recently, expectations of a more inflationary environment may become entrenched and contribute to future inflation. a very important variable that influences the evolution of prices is the conduct of monetary policy. it is notable that the last monetary policy decision of october 29 has retained the monetary policy instruments unchanged. thus, the current level of the base interest rate is 5.5 %, while interest rates on overnight loans and overnight deposits are at the level of 7.5 % and 3.5 %, respectively. however, over the three previous monetary policy decisions, interest rates have been tightened in all three economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 27 policy decisions to stem the inflationary process underway. according to the latest monthly annual inflation rate of october 2021, the annual inflation rate amounts to 8.81%, which renders the current level of the policy interest rates mentioned above negative in real terms. the next monetary policy decision is due to take place on 3 december 2021. in addition to the impact of the current and future monetary policy decisions, the level of inflation in the future will be partly determined by the fiscal stance and the impact of the budget on aggregate demand in the economy. at the time of writing this article, the annual budget for 2022 was not yet finalised. to conclude, the arima estimates reported in the previous section suggest that inflation may accelerate in the short term and gradually decelerate from a point onwards make sense. it should be emphasised that the arima-based estimates provide a benchmark evolution of inflation solely based on existing trends and the historical evolution of the inflation rate. the actual evolution of inflation in the future will reflect the joint impact of the evolution of a number of variables over the forecasting period. it is notable that the general economic environment, both domestic and international, may exacerbate the inflationary process underway and/or possibly its duration. it comes as no real surprise that the latest inflation forecast by the national bank of moldova is more pessimistic than our arima estimated forecasts. in particular, the national bank of moldova foresees the inflation rate to accelerate in the months to come and peak at close to 15 % in the third quarter of 2022 before decelerating back towards the 5 % inflation target by the third quarter of 2023 (national bank of moldova, 2021). compared to the national bank of moldova’s forecast, our arima-based forecast suggests that inflation in moldova will peak earlier and at a slightly lower rate, while the longer term evolution of inflation is broadly similar in both forecasts. given the importance of inflation for economic welfare, the maintenance of macroeconomic stability and the setting of economic policy, it is worth keeping the evolution of the inflation rate and relevant economic variables under review. references box, g., & jenkins, g. (1970). time series analysis: forecasting and control, san francisco: holden-day. box, g. e. p., jenkins, g. m., reinsel, g. c. & ljung, g. m. (2015). time series analysis: forecasting and control (5th edition). new jersey: published by john wiley and sons inc. kelikume, i. & salami, a. (2014). time series modeling and forecasting inflation: evidence from nigeria. the international journal of business and finance research, 8(2), 41-51. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2322918 meyler, a., kenny, g. & quin, t. (1998, december). forecasting irish inflation using arima models. technical paper, 3/rt, 46. economic analysis, research and publications department, central bank of ireland. dublin. https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/researchtechnical-papers/3rt98---forecasting-irish-inflation-using-arima-models-(kenny-meyler-andquinn).pdf mija, s., slobozian, d., cuhal, r., & stratan, a. (2013, march). how core inflation reacts to the second round effects. institute for economic forecasting. journal for economic forecasting, 1, 98-118. national bank of moldova. (2021, november). inflation report no. 4. https://www.bnm.md/en/content/inflation-report-no-4-2021-has-been-published pintilescu, c., dinu, a., baciu, i.-c. & viorica, e.-d. (2015), stochastic models for the inflation rate in romania. transformations in business and economics, 14, 343-359. samrad, j. n., seyyed, m. t. f. g., mohsen, s. & saeed, s. (2021). annual forecasting of inflation rate in iran: autoregressive integrated moving average modeling approach”. engineering reports, 3(4). https://doi.org/10.1002/eng2.12344 https://ssrn.com/abstract=2322918 https://www.bnm.md/en/content/inflation-report-no-4-2021-has-been-published https://doi.org/10.1002/eng2.12344 1 economy and sociology structural change and economic growth in ukraine inna shovkun1, phd in economics, leading researcher, institute for economics and forecasting of the national academy of sciences of ukraine doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.2-05 jel: с2, c5, f6, j24, l5, l6, o,; o3, o4 udc: 338.1(477) abstract deep structural shifts have been the leading feature of the modern world. the study considers the parameters and causes of structural change in the ukrainian economy, as well as the relationship between structural change on the one hand, and labor productivity and economic growth on the other. the study shows that the accelerated reduction of the industrial sector, its technological simplification and narrowing the variety of industries were the key features of the structural changes model that occurred in ukraine's economy after the global financial crisis. this was accompanied by increased dominance of the tertiary sector and the growth of the primary sector. such a trend of structural shifts is not able to generate the necessary boost of economic growth. comparison of parameters and trends of structural changes in ukraine’s economy and in a comparable group of countries and the world as a whole show that the changes in the structure of ukraine’s economy were more intensive, but did not create sufficient potential for sustainable economic growth. the author analyzes the gaps in labor productivity between economic activities and sectors of ukraine’s economy, as well as changes in their dynamics, which leads to the conclusions about the relationship between the rates of technological development of different sectors of ukraine’s economy and the gradual slowdown of the already imperfect technological development of this country’s industry. using the apparatus of econometric modeling, the author evaluates the dependence of the dynamics of gdp growth on the change of the indices of gva in the sectors of this country’s economy. keywords: structural changes, index of structural changes, labor productivity, economic growth, industrial sector, technological development. schimbările structurale profunde au devenit principala caracteristică a economiei mondiale moderne. acest studiu examinează parametrii și cauzele schimbărilor structurale în economia ucrainei, precum și relația dintre schimbările structurale, productivitatea muncii și creșterea economică. studiul a arătat că trăsăturile cheie ale modelului de schimbări structurale care au avut loc în economia ucrainei, după criza financiară globală, țin de reducerea accelerată a ponderii sectorului industrial, simplificarea tehnologică a acestuia și restrângerea varietății de tipuri de producție. aceasta a fost însoțită de o creștere a dominației sectorului terțiar și de creștere a sectorului primar. o astfel de traiectorie a schimbărilor structurale nu poate să genereze o accelerare necesară a creșterii economice. compararea parametrilor și tendințelor schimbărilor structurale în economia ucrainei cu un grup comparabil de țări și cu întreaga lume a arătat că schimbările în structura economiei naționale au fost mai intense, dar nu au condus la crearea unui potențial de creștere economică durabilă. au fost analizate decalajele în productivitatea muncii între tipurile de activitate economică și sectoare ale economiei, precum și schimbările în dinamica ale acestora, ceea ce a dat temei pentru concluzii despre raportul dintre ritmul de dezvoltare tehnologică a sectoarelor economiei și încetinirea treptată în dezvoltarea 1 inna shovkun, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2873-0761, e-mail: econshovk@ukr.net https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2873-0761 2 theoretical and scientifical journal tehnologică a industriei naționale. cu ajutorul aparatului de modelare econometrică se estimează parametrii dependenței dinamicii creșterii pib de modificările indicilor vab ai sectoarelor economiei. cuvinte cheie: schimbări structurale, indicele schimbărilor structurale, productivitatea muncii, creștere economică, sector industrial, dezvoltare tehnologică. основным признаком современной мировой экономики стали глубокие структурные сдвиги. в данном исследовании рассматриваются параметры и причины структурных изменений в экономике украины, а также связь структурных изменений с производительностью труда и экономическим ростом. проведенное исследование показало, что ключевые особенности модели структурных изменений, происходивших в экономике украины после мирового финансового кризиса, заключались в ускоренном уменьшении веса индустриального сектора, его технологическом упрощении и сужении многообразия видов производств. указанное сопровождалось усилением доминирования третичного сектора и ростом первичного. такая траектория структурных сдвигов не способна генерировать необходимое ускорение экономического роста. сравнение параметров и тенденций структурных сдвигов в экономике украины и в сопоставимой группе стран и мире в целом показало, что изменения в структуре национальной экономики были более интенсивными, однако не привели к созданию достаточного потенциала для устойчивого экономического роста. проанализированы разрывы в производительности труда между видами экономической деятельности и секторами экономики, а также их изменения в динамике, что дало основания для выводов о соотношении темпов технологического развития секторов экономики и о постепенном замедлении технологического развития национальной индустрии. с использованием аппарата эконометрического моделирования оценены параметры зависимости динамики роста ввп от изменения индексов вдс секторов экономики. ключевые слова: структурные сдвиги, индекс структурных изменений, производительность труда, экономический рост, индустриальный сектор, технологическое развитие. introduction structural shifts due to advances in production technologies and services are the main factor in economic growth and a sign of development in a modern economy (kuznets, 1973). according to the three-sector model of economy, the principal direction of structural transformation is the transition from primary production (agriculture and mining) to processing industries and then to the provision of services (or the tertiary sector). the absorption of capital and technologies, which ensures the achievement of high productivity, thus creating a basis for the flourishing of the post-industrial service economy is of great importance for the development of the manufacturing, starting from the stage of industrialization. the impulses of structural change are transmitted via the channels of increasing productivity and redistributing factors of production in favor of sectors with higher efficiency to attain sustainable economic growth. the decade after the global financial crisis was marked by structural trends opposite to those prevailing in previous period. the role of manufacturing in the world economy strengthened and it returned to leading positions. in particular, the contribution of the manufacturing to the generation of global gdp increased by 1.3% during 2009-2018 to reach 15.4% (2018), including in developing countries by 1.1%, and in the industrialized countries by 0.7% (unido 2019). the radical transformations in the world’s industrial landscape caused by the development of technologies of the "fourth industrial revolution" led to the emergence of new types of production, which gave additional impetus to structural changes in the global economy and exacerbated competition in the markets. against this background, for ukraine, with its inefficient economic structure and insufficiently modernized production technologies, the risks of further sliding down to the margins of global 3 economy and sociology development and weakening of its geopolitical positions are increasing. therefore the problem of structural reforms primarily based on industry and achievement of sustainable growth of the national economy becomes of particular importance. structural change and economic growth: a literature review structural shifts and assessments of their impact on the economic growth of individual countries and the world have long been a subject of scientific research (saccone & valli, 2009). these topics have never lost their relevance, given the dependence of each country’s geopolitical position on the production structure of its economy (idr2020, 2019). the researchers’ attention is attracted by the trends in structural changes (diao et al., 2017), and identification of their levers and determinants (labor, capital, innovative technologies, savings, national and foreign investment, and foreign trade) (bekkers et al., 2021). in the ukrainian academic community, there is an intense debate about the challenges facing this country’s economy in the context of structural shifts in the world economy. the external factors of the obvious process of structural simplification of ukraine’s economy and its approach to the structural characteristics of the less developed economies are revealed, which are due to the peripheral status of this country’s economy in global production chains (сіденко, 2017). analysis of the key features of ukraine’s economy, which is classified as small, open and raw material based in terms of the structure of production and exports (кораблін, 2017), revealed a weakening of macroeconomic dynamics, and the threat of further technological lag behind more innovative and dynamic economies. study of the domestic causes of the distortion of the structure of ukraine’s economy showed their institutional dependence on property relations, which appeared against the background of nontransparent campaigns for the privatization of state property, the emergence of super-profitable private monopolies and establishment of the power of oligarchs (kindzerski, 2021). the specific features of the business financing models are revealed, which are based on the use of shadow reserves and “offshorization” of financial relations, which create considerable financial constraints to restructuring the economy (зимовець et al., 2019). consideration of a wide range of issues of inclusive development made it possible to substantiate the need for transition to a model of economic growth, in which a human, with the level and quality of his life is the center of concentration of efforts intended to implement structural changes (бобух et al., 2020). in the context of the search of tools for effective economic policy, the advisability of “smart specialization”, which is based on a combination of scientific and technological, innovational, regional and industrial policies and is intended to promote structural modernization of the economy is proven (єгоров et al., 2020). the study of regional proportions and the hierarchy of regions in the national economy showed the priority of the development of manufacturing to ensure the well-being of regional population, and proved that the further decentralization of state powers, development of a new industrial sector based on industry 4.0 technologies is the key to strengthening regional economic viability and overcoming structural and territorial disparities. (shovkun, 2019a). the expediency is substantiated of implementing a development strategy based on the expansion of domestic market, and on its ability to meet the consumers’ needs and to correct imbalances in foreign trade (ostaško, 2019) (shovkun, 2020). this study involves assessing the parameters of structural changes that took place in ukraine during the 2000s, identifying the efficiency of structural changes in terms of labor productivity and dynamics of economic growth, and determining approaches to the development of structural policy. methods for measuring structural shifts structural shifts are estimated using several indicators. most often, the structural change index is used (diao et al., 2017), which estimates the degree of shifts in the sectoral composition of the economy that occurred over a certain period. 𝑰𝑺𝑪𝑽𝑨 = 𝟏 𝟐⁄ ∑ |𝑽𝑨𝒊𝒕 − 𝑽𝑨𝒊(𝒕−𝟏)| 𝒏 𝒊=𝟏 (1) where iscva index of structural changes in terms of value added; 4 theoretical and scientifical journal n number of economic sectors (economic activities, industries); vait and vai (t-1) share of value added of sector i in the current period t and in previous period (t-1). the other indicator, the coefficient of structural changes, measures the changes in the composition of employment by economics sectors: 𝑰𝑺𝑪𝑳 = 𝟏 𝟐⁄ ∑ |𝑳𝒊𝒕 − 𝑳𝒊(𝒕−𝟏)| 𝒏 𝒊=𝟏 , (2) where iscl index of structural changes by the number of employed; and lit and li(t-1) the share of employed in economic sector (economic activity, industry) i in the current period t and in previous period (t-1), respectively. both variants of the index are used to measure the intensity of spatial structural changes in individual countries, and in economic regions, which ensures the comparability of estimates. to identify the qualitative effect of structural shifts, a complex indicator is used ̶ the index of productivity gains (іδр ) , which is calculated by the shift-share method: і𝜟р = ∑ 𝑳𝒊(𝒕−𝟏)𝚫𝑷𝒊 𝑷(𝒕−𝟏) 𝒏 𝒊=𝟏 + ∑ 𝑷𝒊(𝒕−𝟏)𝚫𝑳𝒊 𝑷(𝒕−𝟏) 𝒏 𝒊=𝟏 + ∑ 𝚫𝑳𝒊𝚫𝑷𝒊 𝑷(𝒕−𝟏) 𝒏 𝒊=𝟏 , (3) where, in addition to the already mentioned indicators, there is p(t-1) labor productivity (that is, value added in constant prices per one employed) in the base period; δрi the increase in labor productivity in sector i in the current period (t) compared to the base period (t-1); δli the increase in the share of employed in economic sector i in the current period compared to previous (base) period. transformation of the structure and dynamics of ukraine’s economy according to un data on industrial development, ukraine's economy belongs to the category of emerging industrial economies, closely integrated into global trade and production chains (idr2020, 2019). such integration potentially promotes the transfer of new production technologies, and intensifies industrial development and economic growth. however, in the global system of production linkages, ukraine has a predominantly raw material specialization, which causes this country’s excessive dependence on price fluctuations in the global markets and economic instability. ukraine's gdp growth during 2000-2019 with short periods of ups was dominated by waves of crises and deep falls (figure 1), which were caused by external influences (the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, and by the loss of part of this country's economic potential as a result of russian aggression and occupation of territories of industrially intensive regions since 2014). figure 1. gdp dynamics and structural changes in ukraine’s economy in 2000-2020. source: calculated according to data of the state statistics service of ukraine. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 m ln u a h gdp index (to previous year) index of structural changes gdp (in constant 2016 prices, mln uah) /right scale/ http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ 5 economy and sociology at the same time, the structural changes that took place in ukraine’s economy exceeded in intensity the world level and the level of the comparable group of central european and baltic countries (similar to ukraine by development level) (figure 2). in particular, the average level of the index of structural changes (estimated in terms of value added) in ukraine reached 2.1 in 2000-2019, while in the comparable group of countries it registered 0.6, and globally 0.5. figure 2. index of structural changes (value added) globally and in ukraine in 2000-2019. source:world development indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org usually, intensive structural change is associated with greater opportunities for economic growth arising due to increased aggregate productivity and income (mijiyawa & conde, 2020). this is confirmed by the examples of asian countries (china, india, etc.), where structural changes contributed to economic growth (bekkers et al., 2021). however, structural shifts in ukraine appeared destructive for the economy, because they were accompanied by the loss of a significant part of the manufacturing potential, a considerable gdp decline and sluggish economic dynamics. the share of service sector is constantly growing. this tendency in the ukrainian economy appeared a long time ago and did not change during 2000-2019 (figure 3). the development of service sector in ukraine corresponds to global trends, but the development of the industrial and agricultural sectors is different. the short period of industry based economic recovery and growth (2000-2007) was interrupted by the strikes of crises that caused significant damage to this country’s industrial potential. distinctive features of the structural changes in ukraine’s economy after 2007 were, on the one hand, a significant decrease in the share of the industrial sector (primarily the manufacturing), and on the other, a rapid increase in the share of the tertiary and primary sectors (figure 3). in particular, the reduction in the share of the industrial sector in ukraine's gdp reached 22.5% (at the end of the analyzed period), which is less than the world level (25.6%) and less than that of the comparable group of central european and baltic countries (27.6%). at the same time, the share of the manufacturing in ukraine reduced to 10.8% of gdp, while globally it is 15.4%, and in the comparable group it is 17.6%. 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 ukraine central european and baltic countries world https://databank.worldbank.org/ 6 theoretical and scientifical journal figure 3. sectoral composition of gross value added in ukraine in 2000-2019 (at constant 2016 prices), %. source: state statistics service of ukraine. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua however, by the share of agricultural sector (9% of gdp in 2019), ukraine is almost three-fold ahead of global average, and even more so relative the comparable group of countries. the advantages associated with developed agriculture and the ability to build long chains of domestic production are underutilized and are even lost for economic growth leading to the situation when it is raw materials that are exported to world markets, rather than processed products. moving from the agrarian economic pattern to the industry and service based one provides countries with economic progress in the form of rapid growth in real gdp and overcoming poverty, while movement in the opposite direction will not produce such results. in general, the reproduction mode of the primary sector (mining and related primary processing industries, and agriculture) is only capable of generating relatively low rates of economic growth. efficiency of structural change: labor productivity and economic growth efficient structural change is a determining condition for economic development. estimations of efficiency carried out using labor productivity indicators show contradictory processes in the ukrainian economy. on the one hand, there are long-term trends towards increased productivity in all sectors, which indicates their modernization. but on the other hand, the dynamics of productivity growth is slowing down, which is associated with the negative impact of shifts in employment structure on the overall productivity. there are significant disparities in labor productivity across economic sectors. calculations suggest that industry retains the leading position in labor productivity (hereinafter we refer to the indicator of the volume of gross value added in constant 2016 prices per one employed by economic activity) surpassing the service sector, and furthermore the agricultural sector (figure 4). however, the gap between the sectors is constantly decreasing. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 primary sector (nace code a÷b) secondary sector (nace code c÷f) tertiary sector (services) (nace code g÷t) agrarian sector (nace code a) industrial sector (nace code b÷f) http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ 7 economy and sociology figure 4. labor productivity in terms of gross value added by sectors of ukraine’s economy in 2000-2019. source: calculated according to data of the state statistics service of ukraine. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ analysis of the growth dynamics in productivity for 2000-2019 indicates the positions of the above mentioned sectors are diametrically opposite. productivity in the agricultural sector grew almost continuously, so the final value reached the highest level of 2.5. productivity indexes in the services and industrial sectors only were 1.8 and 1.6, respectively, although the two sectors had better starting positions in 2000-2007. the lag of these two sectors is caused by a fall in their productivity during the crisis in 2008-2009, and in the industrial sector also during 2012-2015 (which was due to the severance of trading ties with the main at that time and traditional for ukrainian exporters sales markets in the cis countries). detailed data about employment and productivity by economic activity (table 1) show a high concentration of workers in industries with low productivity. in particular, ukraine’s main employers are trade and agriculture (where more than 41% of employed are concentrated), whose productivity levels are among the lowest of all economic activities. while by the number of employed, trade ranks first, in terms of productivity this sector ranks 11th, and agriculture 2nd and 10th, respectively. these low-productivity sectors are characterized by relative stability in employment even during crises and by the ability to absorb free labor. intelligently intensive commercial services and services using new technologies are characterized by high productivity. activities in these categories surpass the average level of productivity in the economy by 3.0 3.5 times (2019), and some of them by more than 4.2 times (realty, financial and insurance, information and telecommunications). these activities together provide jobs for 13.4% (2019) of total employed in the economy. the number of employees in the sectors with highest productivity decreased over the observation period, for example, because of the systemic banking crisis in ukraine, which was accompanied by the liquidation of dozens of banks in 2014-2016. the limit of the ability to absorb labor in the whole group of high-productivity services so far never exceeded 15.5%. other activities in the service sector (including trade) are lagging far behind by productivity, but it is in them where most employees (50%) are concentrated, which determines the sector's total productivity. 0 50 100 150 200 250 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 th o u sa n d u a h p e r 1 p e r so n total agrarian sector industrial sector service sector http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ 8 theoretical and scientifical journal table 1 labor productivity (lp) and employment by economic activity in ukraine in 2012-2019 activity lp, thousand uah per 1 person lp ranking lp index share of employed, % employed number ranking employed number index 2019 2019 2019 to 2012 2019 2019 2019 to 2012 total 157.4 1.10 100.0 0.86 agriculture, forestry and fishing 99.0 10 1.38 18.2 2 0.91 industry 208.3 4 0.96 14.8 3 0.76 construction 114.6 8 1.35 4.2 8 0.84 wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 93.0 11 0.92 22.9 1 0.91 transportation and storage 171.8 6 1.15 6.0 5 0.87 accommodation and food service activities 62.7 14 1.27 1.8 12 0.93 information and communication 380.3 3 1.35 1.7 13 0.97 financial and insurance activities 427.7 2 1.56 1.3 15 0.67 real estate activities 665.9 1 1.63 1.6 14 0.81 professional, scientific and technical activities 188.3 5 1.30 2.5 9 0.84 administrative and support service activities 104.3 9 1.22 1.9 11 0.92 public administration and defence, compulsory social security 144.2 7 1.32 5.3 7 0.87 education 65.6 13 1.10 8.4 4 0.85 human health and social work activities 60.5 15 1.07 5.9 6 0.82 arts, entertainment and recreation 73.7 12 1.12 1.2 16 0.88 other types of economic activity 58.5 16 1.44 2.2 10 0.90 source: calculated according to data of the state statistics service of ukraine. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ the next in terms of productivity is industry, which occupies the 4th place by this indicator and exceeds the average level by 1.3 times. industry remains a major employer providing jobs for 14.8% of the employed population, but is rapidly reducing its jobs number (-24% during 2012-2019). people who lost their jobs in industry mainly move to low-productivity industries because transition to highproductivity sectors is constrained for them by a lack of corresponding vocational training. therefore, there is a need to promote education, in particular, by encouraging people of all ages to study and renew their professional skills. analytical calculations (figure 4, table 1) illustrate the fact that the productivity in the industrial sector itself serves not only the main source of total productivity, but also an engine of 9 economy and sociology economic dynamics. therefore, changes in the structure of employment associated with the flow of workers from industry to low-productivity sectors, as well as the conversion of labor flow into a driving force of structural transformation, slow down the overall potential for increasing productivity and growth of the national economy. the sources of increasing productivity in economic sectors include, firstly, capital accumulation, technological changes, and rational use of economic resources; second, the movement of workers from low to high-productivity activities. the influence of sources of both categories on the change in labor productivity is defined by the shift-share method. calculations reveal a significant difference between them both in the impact strength and in impact direction (figure 5). figure 5. structural components of labor productivity growth index in ukraine’ economy in 2000-2019 source: calculated according to data of the state statistics service of ukraine. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ the influence of internal sources on the productivity dynamics (within effect), being the former’s effectiveness based on investment, technological innovation, and careful use of resources, is dominant and mostly positive. the internal resources determine about 90% of productivity change in the economy. thanks to them, according to calculations, the labor productivity index almost doubled during the observation period. however, the lack of capital accumulation by industrial enterprises, passivity in the introduction of new technologies, and irrational expenses made their impact, leading to negative productivity dynamics in 2005, and in 2009-2010 and slowed down its growth in subsequent periods. no wonder the unfavorable investment climate, low investment activity of business, and the investors' disappointment in the possibility to receive loans on acceptable terms are recognized as the main obstacles to accelerating economic growth in ukraine (shovkun, 2019b) (zymovets et al., 2021). the contribution of the static structural effect, as well as that of dynamic structural effect, to changes in the productivity dynamics is relatively small and mostly negative. statistical assessments of both these effects confirm that shifts in employment proportions between sectors negatively affected productivity growth rates between 2000 and 2019. (figure 5). temporary positive effects took place during periods of accelerated productivity growth in all sectors, especially in the industrial sector (in 2004, 2006-2008), as well as against the background of a shift in the employment proportions in favor of real production (2019). the structural factors are closely integrated into the process of economic growth. a multiple regression model was built (i) to test the influence of structural factors on economic dynamics. selection of the model’s factorial features was preceded by analysis of the correlation between the explanatory (exogenous) variables and testing for multicollinearity. considering the existence of a http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ 10 theoretical and scientifical journal linear relationship between the dynamics of growth in the service sector and that in the industrial sector, two exogenous variables were selected for the model. gdp_gr = 0,135 + 0,167 agr_gdp_gr + 0,713 ind_gdp_gr (i) prob. t-statistic (0,0358) (0,0009) (0,0000) r2 = 0,95; dw = 1,577; prob (f-statistic) = 0,0000; where gdp_gr gdp physical volume index (in prices of previous year); agr_gdp_gr index of physical volume of gross value added in the agricultural sector (in prices of previous year); ind_gdp_gr index of physical volume of gross value added of the industrial sector (in prices of previous year). the multiple coefficient of determination (0.95) demonstrates a significant tightness of the joint influence of independent variables on the dependent variable. the regression equation is quite reliable, which is confirmed by the statistical significance of the regression coefficients, f-statistics. investigation of the model’s random deviations (using the durbin-watson statistics, breusch-godfrey test, white, glazer and breusch-pagan tests) indicates the absence of autocorrelation of residuals (1st and 2nd orders) and homoscedasticity of the variance of residuals, which confirms reliability of the regression’s estimates. the results of econometric simulation show that in 2003-2020, the growth of gdp physical volume was determined by the corresponding dynamics of the industrial and agricultural sectors. the equation’s coefficients measure the quantitative influence of each factor on the dependent variable, and therefore it can be stated that gdp index increases by an average of 0.167 points due to the increase in gva index of the agricultural sector by 1 point per year (other exogenous factors being unchanged), but by 0.713 points due to increase in gva index of the industrial sector (under similar conditions). thus, the second factor has a greater effect on the result than the first one. therefore, the parameters of regression simulation confirm the influence and significance of the structural factors for economic dynamics. conclusions the study shows that ukraine’s economy has experienced significant structural shifts over the past two decades. the intensity of these shifts exceeded not only the global average, but also the level of a comparable group of central european and baltic countries. however, the change in the direction of structural transformations, whose turning point was the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, determined the fact those transformations did not yield a sufficient potential for sustainable economic growth. while at the initial stage (2000-2007) the rise in the tertiary sector’s share in gdp was combined with the strengthening of the secondary sector, which together created proper conditions for a dynamic increase in productivity and provided high rates of economic growth, then at the final stage the configuration of forces changed. a decrease in the share of the secondary sector (especially the loss of part of the potential in the manufacturing, the latter’s technological simplification and narrowed product assortment), together with the strengthening of the primary sector, and waves of economic crises and russian aggression, led to a temporary drop in productivity, followed by a slowdown of its growth rates and a deceleration of economic recovery. this pattern of structural changes is burdened by the risks of deeper structural inconsistency of ukraine’s economy with the cardinal changes taking place in the world economy, generated by the progress of industry 4.0 technologies and by production diversification. the considerable productivity gap between economic activities is only deepening. the contrast is especially sharp within the tertiary sector between high-tech services and the rest of services, where the gap is more than 11 times. this although the differences between sectors’ labor productivity remain, as well as the distances between them are reducing. certainly, productivity gaps between individual economic activities and sectors reflect the degree of differences in their technological development, which depends on the pace of introduction of new production technologies, the rate of capital investment inflow, and the quality of labor force. on that basis, we note that technological 11 economy and sociology development is proceeding more rapidly in the agricultural and service sectors than in the industrial sector, which indicates a gradual slowdown of the already imperfect technological development of ukraine’s industry threatening with a subsequent loss of its competitiveness. under such conditions, it is quite predictable that technological backwardness of this country’s industry causes a slowdown in economic growth. the study substantiates that gdp index rises by an average of 0.71 percentage points as the industrial sector's gva index grows by 1 point per year (other exogenous factors being unchanged). therefore, industrial development is an influential and significant prerequisite of economic growth, and no other sector has such a driving force. the estimates made based of calculating the disaggregated components of labor productivity index revealed that the dominant positive role in productivity growth is played by internal sources based on capital investments, introduction of technological innovations, and prudent use of resources. thanks to their action, labor productivity in ukraine’s economy almost doubled during 2000-2019. the other source shifts in the employment structure plays a modest and mostly negative role in the changes in labor productivity. proportions of the distribution of employment are shifted towards lowproductivity activities and sectors (more than 41% of the employed are concentrated in trade and agriculture, while only a minority are engaged in high-productivity services and the manufacturing). changes in the employment structure associated with the loss of jobs and transfer of workers, primarily from industrial sector to low-productivity ones, are causing a decline of the overall potential of labor productivity and economic growth. the results of the study show that when developing structural policy, the goal should be to attain high productivity by changing the balance of power in the economy towards the formation of centers of economic growth based on encouraging investment in innovative and technological modernization and diversification of production. references 1. bekkers, e., koopman, r. b., & rêgo, c. l. 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(2020). structural change and productivity growth in guinea [working paper]. world bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9341 7. ostaško, t. o. (2019). strukturni zminy u svitovij torhivli jak čynnyk rozvytku vnutrišnʹoho rynku ukraïny: kolektyvna monohrafija (instytut ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannja, ed.). du ‘instytut ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannja nan ukrainy’. 8. saccone, d., & valli, v. (2009). structural change and economic development in china and india. ssrn electronic journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1486093 9. shovkun, i. (2019a). industrial development in decentralized conditions: experience of leading industrial countries and conclusions for ukraine. ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ, 2018(4), 38– 64. https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.04.038 10. shovkun, i. (2019b). investment climate as a factor of industrial development in ukraine. ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ, 2019(4), 70–103. https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.04.070 12 theoretical and scientifical journal 11. shovkun, i. (2020). dependence of ukrainian economy on industrial import and prerequisites of forming effective industrial specialization. economy of industry, 3(91), 5–28. https://doi.org/10.15407/econindustry2020.03.005 12. zymovets, v., sheludko, n., & shyshkov, s. (2021). macroeconomic and institutional barriers of “normalization” of an enterprise’s financing models in ukraine. economy of industry, 2(94), 45–58. https://doi.org/10.15407/econindustry2021.02.045 13. бобух, і. м., кіндзерський, ю. в., фащевська, о. м., снігова, о. ю., щегель, с. м., & тищук т.а. (2020). структурні зміни як основа інкл юзивного розвитку економіки україни. київ : http://ief.org.ua/docs/mg/332.pdf 14. єгоров, і. ю., бажал, ю. м., хаустов, в. к., & черненко, с. м. (2020). формування «розумної спеціалізації» в економіці україни: колективна монографія. київ. http://ief.org.ua/docs/mg/331.pdf 15. зимовець, в. в., даниленко, а. і., терещенко, о. о., іванов, ю. б., корнилюк, а. в., єршова, г. в., кошик, о. м., гаркавенко, в. і., брус, с. і., & федоренко, а. в. (2019). розвиток фінансів підприємств корпоративного сектора економіки україни (p. 62). http://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/bitstream/handle/123456789/17257/rozvytok_finansiv_pidpryiem stv_korporatyvnoho_sektora_ekonomiky_ukrainy.pdf?sequence=3 16. кораблін, с. о. (2017). макроекономічна динаміка україни: пастка сировинних ринків сергій кораблін тека авторів. київ. http://chtyvo.org.ua/authors/korablin_serhii/makroekonomichna_dynamika_ukrainy_pastka _syrovynnykh_rynkiv/ 17. сіденко, в. (2017). структурні трансформації у світовій економіці: виклики для україни (p. 186) [аналітична доповідь]. https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/article/2017_svit_ecovom_annotation.pdf received 01 november 2021 accepted 08 december 2021 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 46 alternative sources of enterprise financing and the impact of covid-19 pandemic doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-05 alina ianioglo, phd, leading researcher national institute for economic research, moldova https://orcid.org0000-0003-2845-471x e-mail: alina.ianioglo@gmail.com received 3 march 2022 accepted for publication 27 may 2022 https://orcid.org0000-0003-2845-471x/ mailto:alina.ianioglo@gmail.com economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 47 abstract in current conditions of digital transformation and difficulties in accessing traditional financing, alternative sources of finance acquire particular importance. at the same time, the knowledge regarding the alternative finance market is yet in its infancy, with little evidence of the effects of the covid-19 pandemic on the alternative finance market in moldova. therefore, the article aims to explore financing alternatives for enterprises in moldova and determine the effects of the covid-19 pandemic on the alternative finance market. additionally, there were analysed data from other reference countries. in order to achieve the objective of the study, a mixed research approach, based on both primary and secondary data, was used: analysis of statistical data, international rankings, comparison, synthesis, deduction, as well as a questionnaire-based survey designed for small and medium-sized enterprises. smes have proven to be vulnerable to crises. the alternative finance market in moldova was analysed, showing that despite a rise in recent years, alternative sources of financing are still poorly developed. the study shows that enterprises face the biggest problems in accessing venture capital, financing on the securities market and use of electronic platforms to attract funding (crowdfunding, cryptocurrencies, etc.). at the same time, there was registered an improvement in accessing crowdfunding since the beginning of the pandemic. generally, obtained results are essential for further research, practitioners and in determining measures to facilitate access to finance. keywords: alternative finance, crowdfunding, entrepreneurship, finance, fintech, peer to peer lending, venture capital. în condițiile actuale de transformare digitală și dificultăți în accesarea finanțării tradiționale, sursele alternative de finanțare capătă o importanță deosebită. în același timp, cunoștințele privind piața de finanțare alternativă sunt încă scăzute. de asemenea, nu există suficiente informații despre efectele pandemiei covid-19 asupra pieței de finanțare alternativă din moldova. în acest context, articolul își propune să exploreze surse alternative de finanțare pentru întreprinderile din moldova și să determine efectele pandemiei covid-19 asupra pieței de finanțare alternativă. în plus, au fost analizate și date din alte țări de referință. pentru atingerea obiectivului studiului a fost utilizată o abordare mixtă de cercetare, bazată atât pe date primare, cât și pe cele secundare: analiza datelor statistice, clasamente internaționale, comparație, sinteză, deducere, precum și chestionarul pentru întreprinderile mici și mijlocii. imm-urile s-au dovedit a fi vulnerabile la crize. a fost analizată piața de finanțare alternativă din moldova, care a arătat că, în ciuda unei creșteri în ultimii ani, sursele alternative de finanțare sunt încă slab dezvoltate. studiul arată că întreprinderile se confruntă cu cele mai mari probleme în accesarea capitalului de risc, finanțarea pe piața valorilor mobiliare și utilizarea platformelor electronice pentru a atrage finanțare (crowdfunding, criptomonede etc.). totodată, de la începutul pandemiei s-a înregistrat o îmbunătățire a accesului la crowdfunding. în general, rezultatele obținute sunt importante pentru cercetările ulterioare, practicieni și elaborarea măsurilor de facilitare a accesului la finanțare. cuvinte cheie: finanțare alternativă, crowdfunding, antreprenoriat, finanțe, fintech, creditare peer to peer, capital de risc. в современных условиях цифровой трансформации и сложности доступа к традиционному финансированию особое значение приобретают альтернативные источники финансирования. в то же время знания о рынке альтернативных финансов все еще находятся на начальной стадии, кроме того, недостаточно исследовано влияние пандемии covid-19 на рынок альтернативных финансов в республике молдова. таким образом, цель статьи состоит в исследовании альтернативных источников финансирования предприятий в республике молдова и определении economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 48 влияния пандемии covid-19 на рынок альтернативных финансов. кроме того, были проанализированы данные из других стран. для достижения цели исследования был использован смешанный исследовательский подход, основанный как на первичных, так и на вторичных данных: анализ статистических данных, международных рейтингов, сравнение, синтез, дедукция, а также анкетный опрос малых и средних предприятий. мсп оказались уязвимыми перед кризисами. был проанализирован рынок альтернативного финансирования в республике молдова, который показал, что, несмотря на рост в последние годы, альтернативные источники финансирования все еще слабо развиты. исследование показывает, что наибольшие проблемы у предприятий возникают при доступе к венчурному капиталу, финансированию на рынке ценных бумаг и использовании электронных площадок для привлечения финансирования (краудфандинг, криптовалюты и др.). в то же время было отмечено улучшение доступа к краудфандингу с начала пандемии. в целом, полученные результаты важны для дальнейших исследований, практиков и при определении мер по облегчению доступа к финансам. ключевые слова: альтернативные финансы, краудфандинг, предпринимательство, финансы, финтех, пиринговое кредитование, венчурный капитал. jel classification: g20, g30, o16, l26 udc: 336.648 introduction small businesses represent a key part of most economies, contributing to employment and sustainable economic development. despite their significant role, small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) still face a number of challenges, one of the most significant being access to financing, which affects the productivity and growth of enterprises. this is especially relevant when considering the global pandemic. the сovid-19 pandemic has affected the normal economic order, causing a major economic shock. specifically, smes were seriously hit due to their disadvantaged position during the crisis (brown et al., 2020; doshi et al., 2018). along with all the negative effects, the covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the trend towards digitalisation (klein & todesco, 2021), including digital transformation in the financial sector (fu & mishra, 2022). the rise of alternative financial channels represents a significant outcome of the digitalisation of the entrepreneurial finance ecosystem (bertoni et al., 2021). alternative financing instruments are valuable sources of external funding of smes' activity, especially when they experience borrowing constraints from banks. at the same time, alternative finance instruments remain poorly developed in moldova. therefore, difficulties in accessing finance are significant challenges for smes, which are becoming very pronounced due to the current crisis, proving the relevance of the research topic. the paper aims to explore financing alternatives for enterprises in moldova and determine the effects of the covid-19 pandemic on the alternative finance market. this study contributes to the growing literature on alternative finance markets in developing countries on example of the republic of moldova, and the effects of the covid-19 pandemic on entrepreneurial finance. the remainder of the paper is organised as follows. section 2 presents a literature review, followed by a methodology section, describing the data sources and research methods. section 4 explores the level of development of alternative finance in moldova and analyses the effects of the covid-19 pandemic on alternative finance of small businesses. the last section reveals the main conclusions of the study. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 49 literature review smes are the leading form of enterprise globally. they account for approximately 99% of all enterprises in moldova and employ 60,1% of the population. the access to finance is essential for the activity, growth and innovation of smes. despite their importance, smes are perceived by banks as high-risk clients with limited collateral options (corredera-catalán et al., 2021), higher degree of informality, lack of history and lower financial management capacities (oecd et al., 2020, berger & udell, 2006). thus, smes are unlikely to have the required amount or type of assets to act as loan guarantees. they may not have a long-standing relationship with a financial institution. the high cost and slow financing of smes is a great challenge for economic development, which has aroused the concerns of many scholars (song et al., 2020). in this context, alternative sources of finance acquire special attention. several studies have focused their attention on the analysis of access to finance in developing countries (ayyagari et al., 2021; nizaeva & coskun, 2019; manzoor et al., 2021) and alternative sources of finance during the pandemic (sahay et al., 2020; fu & mishra, 2022; liu et al., 2022). for several years technology was changing the landscape of the financial sector, increasing access to financial services (sahay et al., 2020). during the pandemic, there were created new opportunities for digital financial services. alternative sources of finance include peer-to-peer lending, equity finance, angel investments, crowdfunding, etc. they are disrupting traditional financial markets and offer new opportunities for business. traditional financial services require high investments in branches and staff, while online financial services have limited operational costs with minimum staff and no branches. as l. lu (2018) noted, technologies have provided alternative lenders a “competitive advantage in terms of saving costs and improving business efficiency”. due to the use of big data technology and artificial intelligence, online lending platforms have access to more information about the borrowers and can faster and more precisely evaluate the credit risk. additionally, in contrast with banks, online sources of finance have no geographical limitations. thus, digital financial services are disrupting traditional financial markets and offer new business opportunities. they are generally perceived as being faster, more efficient, and typically cheaper than traditional financial services (sahay et al., 2020). compared to traditional financial instruments, fintech is more inclusive, offering additional opportunities for overcoming the financial constraints of smes (gao, 2022). the online alternative finance market is still small, but growing fast from 1.5 billion usd in 2013 to 23.2 billion usd in 2019. at the same time, the knowledge regarding alternative finance markets is yet in its infancy. additionally, to our knowledge, the effects of pandemic were not explored on alternative finance market in moldova. methodology the research is based on a mixed approach, using both primary and secondary sources of data. the study draws upon primary data collected using a questionnaire-based survey. the questionnaire provides data on the impact of alternative sources of finance on the development of entrepreneurship in moldova and their changes over the past two years. the questionnaire was designed for small and medium-sized enterprises. the total number of respondents amounted to 106 entrepreneurs from micro, small and medium-sized enterprises from different regions according to their distribution in the north, centre and south of moldova. the questionnaire consisted of two parts. first, the impact of different indicators of the development of entrepreneurship was identified. secondly, the trend of these indicators over two years (2021 compared to 2019) was determined. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 50 additionally, the following scientific methods were used: analysis of statistical data, international rankings, comparison, synthesis, and deduction. the data for performing the analysis were extracted from databases of the national bureau of statistics, world bank, cambridge centre for alternative finance, world economic forum, and organisation for economic co-operation and development. the limitations of chosen research methods lie in questionnaire data obtained from respondents from one country. for future research, it would be interesting to evaluate the perceptions of entrepreneurs from other reference countries. covid-19 and the alternative finance market in moldova the main sources of financing the investment activity of enterprises in moldova are their own means reaching 65% of total investments in long-term tangible assets in 2016. however, insufficient financial resources determine enterprises to access external sources to finance their activity. over 80% of the total credit supply is covered by bank financial resources (ncfm, 2020). in the last five years, the share of loans in gdp granted by non-bank credit organisations (ncos) has increased 1,6 times, constituting 4.66% in 2020. in the structure of the lending sector, their share constituted 14.5% in 2020, or by 1.8 p.p. more than in 2017. the share of loans in gdp granted by savings and credit associations did not change considerably in the last years, accounting for 0.46% in 2020. nonbank credit organisations and savings and credit associations are slowly growing as sources of financing for smes, especially in rural areas, mainly due to the high requirements of bank guarantees. at the same time, it should be noted that 82% of ncos loans are granted to individuals and only 18% are offered to legal entities. other sources of financing such as leasing, business angels, crowdfunding, and venture capital are still poorly developed. in order to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of policies that support access to finance for smes, there were analysed data from sme policy index (oecd et al., 2020). the country ranks third out of the eastern partnership (eap) countries on pillar – access to finance, with a score of 3.61 (out of max. 5), slightly exceeding the average of eap countries (3.57) and is 0.21 more than in the previous report in 2016. georgia and armenia rank higher: 4.02 and 3.81, correspondingly. the republic of moldova obtained better scores on the sub-dimensions: legal and regulatory framework (4.1) and non-bank financing (3.79), exceeding the average of eap countries by 0.11 and 0.24 respectively (figure 1). figure 1. score of the sub-dimensions of the pillar access to financing in moldova source: developed by the author based on smes policy index 2020 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 51 at the same time, the stock market (score of 2.43) does not represent a potential source of business financing. the country obtained the lowest scores in the venture capital (1.53) and financial literacy (2.67) sub-dimensions, being lower by 0.73 and 0.79, respectively, compared to the average of eap countries. analysis of non-bank sources of finance (figure 2) showed that moldova obtained the highest score on microfinance (5.0). adoption of law no. 1 on non-bank credit organisations from 16.03.2018 was an important step in diversifying the sources of financing, including strengthening leasing regulations, but alternative sources of finance remain underutilised in the country. the share of leasing in the structure of the credit sector in the country has decreased by 1.2 p.p. from 3.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2020 (ncfm, 2022). in the field of factoring, there is a corresponding regulation, which could be further improved. at the same time, no statistics are available to assess the market penetration of this instrument. figure 2. scores for the non-bank financing indicators in eap countries source: developed by the author based on smes policy index 2020 in relation to other eap countries, moldova ranks last on the venture capital sub-dimension (1.53), the highest score being obtained by armenia (3.37). in moldova, plans to introduce a legal framework for venture capital have existed for years, but it has not been adopted yet. generally, this financial instrument is underutilised in the country. thus, in terms of ease for start-up entrepreneurs with innovative but risky projects to obtain equity funding, moldova is placed last compared to reference countries, ranking 116 out of 141 countries with a value of only 2,5 (figure 3). figure 3. venture capital availability in the ranking of moldova and reference countries source: developed by the author based on global competitiveness report (schwab, 2019) economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 52 another alternative source of finance is crowdfunding. crowdfunding represents an emerging type of equity-based, non-bank financial instrument. there are various types of crowdfunding, specifically: peer-to-peer, equity and rewards-based, donation-based, profit-sharing, and debtsecurities crowdfunding. in order to analyse the development of this financial instrument, there was analysed data on business volumes of crowdfunding platforms through annual surveys provided by the cambridge centre for alternative finance (ccaf). they represent data for this alternative finance in the form of digital lending (balance sheet lending, peer-to-peer lending, debt-based securities, invoice trading) and digital capital raising (investment and noninvestment-based crowdfunding). crowdfunding is still a small market, but it is growing fast. many companies experienced difficulties during the covid-19 pandemic. over the years, the european (including the uk) online alternative finance market volume grew consistently from 1.5 billion usd in 2013 to 23.2 billion usd in 2019. however, 2020 saw a drop in overall market volume to 22.6 billion usd, representing the first decrease in market volume since 2013. at the same time, it is important to remark that the crowdfunding industry provided additional support and flexibility for businesses. out of the total amount, crowdfunding platforms in europe, excluding the uk, raised 5.2 billion usd for businesses in 2020 or by 0.9 billion usd more than in the previous year. volumes for sme focused finance have been increasing steadily over recent years, with business funding accounting for 35% of the total volume in 2019 and 52% in 2020 (ccaf, 2022). data for moldova show that the crowdfunding market was also increasing in moldova, reaching 178.4 million usd in 2019 (figure 4). but the amount dramatically decreased by 47.9% in 2020 due to uncertainty on the market, conditioned by the covid-19 pandemic. figure 4. online alternative finance market in moldova for 2017-2020 source: developed based on ziegler et al. (2021), ccaf (2022) comparative data on online alternative finance market in moldova and reference countries is represented in figure 5. figure 5. online alternative finance market in moldova and reference countries, 2020 source: developed based on ziegler et al. (2021), ccaf (2022) economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 53 although, there was registered a significant decrease in the crowdfunding market, moldova is in fourth place in terms of online alternative finance per capita among reference countries, following lithuania, armenia and latvia. according to world bank enterprise survey 2019, 29.4% of the respondent enterprises in moldova identify access to financial resources as a major constraint, twice the average in europe and central asia (14.7%). due to the covid-19 pandemic, the private sector experienced growing financial distress. totally 96.5% of firms in the republic ever experienced decreased liquidity or cash flow availability since covid-19 began, the indicator being worse compared to other reference countries (georgia – 84.0%, bulgaria81.0%, lithuania -78.9%, romania – 65.7%, latvia – 59.0%). these led to delay payments to suppliers, reported by 69.3% of firms. at the same time, the covid-19 pandemic accelerated the digitalisation processes in all spheres of activity. according to wb enterprise survey (2022) data, the percent of firms that started or increased online business activity constituted 32% in june 2020 and doubled in june 2021 (68%). in terms of sources of finance, it could be observed that bank loans prevail over non-bank loans in most of the analysed countries (figure 6). figure 6. percentage of firms that used bank and non-bank sources of finance since covid-19 began source: developed by the author based on world bank enterprise surveys follow-up on covid-19 nevertheless, as of june 2021, over half of respondents mentioned that their loan application was rejected, 34% of moldovan firms reported the use of bank loans as the main source since covid-19 began and 12% the use of loans from non-bank financial institutions. at the same time, a big share of firms reported that they used equity finance as the main source of finance (67%). questionnaire data: respondents’ evaluation of the alternative sources of finance based on the conducted survey, the access to alternative sources of finance and their impact on the development of entrepreneurship and the entrepreneurial ecosystem were considered. an important indicator is the coefficient of evaluation of the entrepreneurial ecosystem (kee), which shows the weighted average evaluation of the entrepreneurial ecosystem by a specific indicator. the value of the coefficient varies between “-2” meaning that the analysed indicator represents a significant obstacle to the development of the entrepreneurial ecosystem, to “+2” meaning that the analysed indicator economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 54 represents a substantial advantage for the development of the entrepreneurial ecosystem, zero value means a neutral impact. analysis of the alternative sources of finance in moldova shows that enterprises encounter the biggest challenges in accessing venture capital (kee = -0.96) and financing in the securities market (kee = -0.58) (figure 7). the access to venture capital was assessed negatively by 75% of entrepreneurs who evaluated the given indicator, and the access to finance on the securities market by 62%, which reflects a relatively poor degree of development of these financing instruments in the country. over half of the respondents consider that these indicators significantly hinder entrepreneurship development (58.3% and 50.0%, respectively). figure 7. evaluation of the smes access to alternative sources of finance, % of respondents who evaluated the indicators source: developed by the author based on the questionnaire data nevertheless, the use of electronic platforms to attract funding (crowdfunding, cryptocurrencies, etc.) has an almost neutral impact, kee = +0.02, many entrepreneurs indicated that they face difficulties in accessing them (obstacle for 39.5% of respondents who assessed this indicator). access to funding within the projects of foreign donors, including international organisations, and grants (kee = +0.71) was positively evaluated by over 70% of respondents. at the same time, for 1/4 of entrepreneurs, this represents a problem. the other two indicators, referring to the access to financing within the state programs implemented by odimm (kee = +1,07) and the access to loans from the microfinance organisations (kee = +1,02), are perceived by entrepreneurs as a potential advantage for their enterprise. additionally, it should be mentioned that the evaluation of the access to finance by size of enterprise reveals that respondents from small enterprises perceive access to finance as a problem for business and entrepreneurial ecosystem development (33%) relatively more frequent compared to respondents from medium enterprises (16%). also, it was determined that access to finance is a bigger problem for enterprises in the industrial (41%) sector, construction (39%) and services (34%). according to the survey data, the majority of respondents consider that the situation regarding access to finance by enterprises has not changed since 2019 (figure 8). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 55 figure 8. changes in access to alternative sources of finance registered in 2021 compared to 2019, % of respondents source: developed by the author based on the questionnaire data the highest values of the change perception index of entrepreneurial ecosystem (iee), which reflects the greatest relative excess of positive evaluations regarding the changes in access to finance within the entrepreneurial ecosystem, are registered in the indicators “access to funding within state programs, implemented by odimm” (iee =75.0%) and “use of electronic platforms to attract funding (crowdfunding, cryptocurrencies, etc.)” (iee = 70.8%). besides access to funding within state programs, the indicators “access to loans from microfinance organisations” and “access to funding within projects of foreign donors, including international organisations, grants” show the highest share of respondents who indicated a change in the situation: 25% and 19% of respondents indicated an improvement and 14% and 15% worsening of the situation respectively. “access to finance on the securities market” is the indicator with the lowest value of the iee index (27.3%), which reflects the largest relative excess of negative assessments associated with changes in the entrepreneurial ecosystem. another indicator that reveals the situation's relative deterioration is “access to venture capital” (iee = 40.0%). conclusions the capacity of enterprises to access financial resources remains one of the main challenges affecting their activity, especially during the current crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic. along with all the negative effects, the covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation, one of the outcomes being the rise of alternative finance opportunities. alternative finance is expected to ease existing constraints of bank financing, helping small enterprises successfully raise financial capital to ensure sustainability and growth. today, banks are the main providers of external financing, almost 80% of the total credit supply in moldova is covered by bank financial sources. at the same time, alternative sources of financing are still poorly developed. thus, the share of leasing in the structure of the credit sector in moldova has decreased by 1.2 p.p. from 3.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2020. according to sme policy index, the stock market (score of 2.43) does not represent a potential source of business financing. additionally, the country obtained the lowest scores in the financial literacy (2.67) and venture capital (1.53) subeconomy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 56 dimensions. venture capital is underutilised in the country. plans to introduce a legal framework for venture capital have existed for years, but they have not been adopted yet. over the years, the crowdfunding market was increasing in moldova, reaching 178.4 million usd in 2019. but, the amount dramatically decreased by 47.9% in 2020 due to uncertainty in the market conditioned by the covid-19 pandemic. at the same time, european experience shows that the volumes for sme focused finance (crowdfunding) have been increasing steadily over recent years, with business funding accounting for 35% of the total volume in 2019 and 52% in 2020. the data from questionnaire-based survey for small and medium sized enterprises reveals that enterprises face the biggest problems in accessing venture capital (kee = -0.96), financing on the securities market (kee = -0.58) and use of electronic platforms to attract funding (crowdfunding, cryptocurrencies, etc.) (kee = +0.02), obstacle for 75.0%, 61.5% and 39.5% of respondents who assessed this indicator. the majority of respondents consider that the situation regarding access to finance by enterprises has not changed since 2019. the highest values of the change perception index were registered for indicators access to funding within state programs, implemented by odimm” (iee =75.0%) and “use of electronic platforms to attract funding (crowdfunding, cryptocurrencies, etc.)” (iee = 70.8%, revealing the greatest relative excess of positive evaluations regarding the changes in access to finance, meaning these sources of finance became more accessible. obtained results are important for further research, practitioners and in determining measures to facilitate access to finance, development of fintech and alternative sources of finance (crowdfunding, venture capital, business angels, etc.). thus, along with promoting traditional sources of finance and making them more accessible for smes, it is advised to make efforts towards the development of alternative finance, the legislation should be adjusted, the alternative source of finance should be promoted, as well as entrepreneurs should be educated. disclosure statement the article is based on the results of the research project within the "state 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https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/faculty-research/centres/alternative-finance/publications/the-2nd-global-alternative-finance-market-benchmarking-report/ https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/faculty-research/centres/alternative-finance/publications/the-2nd-global-alternative-finance-market-benchmarking-report/ economy and sociology 133 no. 1/ 2019 social patterns of smoking and alcohol drinking among young people in moldova mariana crismaru1, scientific researcher, national institute for economic research, republic of moldova this paper explores the incidence and individual determinants of smoking and alcohol drinking with a high prevalence among young people in moldova. it goes beyond epidemiological approach and descriptive analysis and provides a sociological explanation for these risk-taking behaviours by linking them to local social context in which young people inhabit. the study is based on secondary data analysis of national youth survey of moldova among 14-29 aged population (1112 respondents) carried out in 2016, commissioned by the eu-oecd youth inclusion project and ministry of education, culture and research of the republic of moldova. data were processed in spss. multivariate analysis, adjusting for demographic co-variates was performed using logistic regression. the results of this study show that rates of male smoking and alcohol drinking are high, while rates in women are far lower. according to multivariate data analysis, gender and age are strong individual determinants for both health-risk practices. as well, another important predictor for these behaviors is young people’s educational level – those with lower education level were particularly likely to smoke and drink alcohol. the study revealed also a strong interrelation between these health-risk practices. in paper is argued that high prevalence of smoking and drinking in male may reflect a normative structure for male socializing. taking into consideration that strongest predictor variable overall is male gender, and strong relationship between heavy drinking and smoking, these behavioral factors might be responsible for the increasing in premature deaths among males in middle age. keywords: socio-demographic factors, incidence, prevalence, smoking, alcohol consumption, interdependence. acest articol explorează incidența și factorii individuali determinanți ai fumatului și consumului de alcool care au o prevalență ridicată în rândul tinerilor din moldova. această lucrare depășește abordarea epidemiologică și descriptivă și oferă o explicație sociologică, prin conectarea acestora la contextul social în care locuiesc tinerii. studiul se bazează pe analiza secundară a datelor sondajului național al tinerilor din moldova în rândul populației de 14-29 ani (1112 respondenți) realizat în 2016 în cadrul proiectului de incluziune ue-ocde și ministerul educației, culturii și cercetării din moldova. datele au fost procesate utilizând spss. analiza multivariată, cu ajustarea co-variatele demografice a fost efectuată utilizând regresia logistică. studiul arată că ratele de consum de tutun și alcool în rândul bărbaților sunt mult mai înalte comparativ cu ratele înregistrate în rândul femeilor. conform analizei multivariate, sexul (masculin) și vârsta sunt factorii individuali determinanți pentru ambele practici comportamentale. un alt predictor important îl constituie nivelul de educație al tinerilor – tinerii cu un nivel de educație mai scăzut au o probabilitate mai mare să fumeze și să consume alcool. studiul a arătat o puternică interdependență între aceste comportamente cu risc pentru sănătate. prevalența ridicată a fumatului și a consumului de alcool în rândul bărbaților reflectă o structură normativă pentru socializarea acestora. luând în considerație faptul că cea mai importantă variabilă predictivă este sexul (masculin) și relația puternică dintre consumul ridicat de alcool și fumat, acești factori comportamentali ar putea fi responsabili de creșterea numărului de decese premature în rândul bărbaților de vârstă mijlocie. cuvinte-cheie: factori socio-demografici, incidența, prevalența, fumat, consum alcool, interdependență. в этой статье рассматриваются распространенность и индивидуальные детерминанты курения и потребление алкоголя среди молодежи в молдове. анализ выходит за рамки описательного и эпидемиологического подхода и приводит социологическое объяснение поведению с риском для здоровья, связывая их с социальным контекстом, в котором проживает молодежь. исследование основано на анализе вторичных данных национального опроса среди молодежи в возрасте от 14 до 29 лет (1112 респондентов), проведенном в 2016 г. по заказу eu-oecd и 1 © mariana crismaru, mariana_mascautan@yahoo.com theoretical and scientifical journal 134 no. 1 / 2019 министерства образования, культуры и исследований республики молдова в рамках проекта по вовлечению молодежи. данные были проанализированы с использованием spss. многофакторный анализ с учетом демографических ко-вариаций проводился с использованием логистической регрессии. результаты данного исследования показывают, что показатели курения и потребления алкоголя среди мужчин намного выше, чем выше, чем среди. многомерный анализ показал, что пол и возраст являются главными факторами, определяющие поведенческие практики с риском для здоровья. еще одним важным предиктором такого поведения является уровень образования молодежи – люди с более низким уровнем образования чаще курят и употребляют алкоголь. исследование выявило также сильную взаимосвязь между этими двумя поведенческими практиками с риском для здоровья. в статье утверждается, что высокая распространенность курения и употребления алкоголя у мужчин может отражать нормативную структуру их социализации. принимая во внимание, что определяющим фактором является пол (мужской), а также учитывая тесную связь между алкоголизмом и курением, они могут быть причиной преждевременной смерти среди мужчин среднего возраста. ключевые слова: социально-демографические факторы, курение, потребление алкоголя, взаимозависимость. doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2019.1-11 jel classification: i12, i14 udc: 316.4.066(478) introduction. young people’s health-related attitudes and behaviours, especially health-risk practices, and their determinants are major topics in both medical and psychosocial studies, while their findings and recommendations are crucial for informing the development of effective health education and health promotion policy, programs and practices. the interest for studying health behavior has considerably increased over the past decades and is related to two main findings, namely that a great part of morbidity and mortality is caused by behavioral factors [1, 2, 3] and behavior can be ‘influenced’ or ‘changed’, which place a particular emphasis on prevention and education individual responsibility for health [4, 2, 5]. in other words, some illnesses and premature deaths could be considerably reduced if people would adopt lifestyles that promote wellness, such as eating healthful diets, exercising, avoiding binge drinking and not smoking. adolescence and youth1 are understandably considered as critical stages of individual’s life. there are periods of major physical, psychological, and behavioural changes, as well as periods of socialization experience through participation in education and employment, formal and informal institutions and groups, and, generally, are shaped by social context they inhabit. all these might influence young people’s perceptions and decisions on health-related behaviors [6], both protective and health-risk practices, which can be continued throughout the life. most important that unhealthy behavioural patterns could determine their current and prospective health status and the risk for developing some chronic diseases in adulthood and lead to premature death [6, 4]. moreover, early initiation of health-risk practices is associated with an increased risk of developing addiction, i.e. alcohol, nicotine [7, 4] that can negatively influence physical and mental health, obstruct school and occupational pathways, and affect interpersonal relations. these behaviors can also have a generally detrimental impact on quality of life. this paper explores the prevalence and socio-demographic factors of smoking and alcohol drinking as most common health-risk practices with a high prevalence among young people in moldova. it should be mentioned that alcohol consumption and smoking are currently some of the major challenges for public health, while the harmful use of alcohol and smoking are among the leading risk factors for disease burden in populations worldwide [8, 9, 10]. as well, this study goes beyond epidemiological approach and descriptive analysis and provides a 1 there is considerable ambiguity in the definition of young people in the specialized literature and terms like young, adolescents, young adults are often used interchangeably. the national youth policy of the republic of moldova defines the youth population as those in the age group of 14-35 years. however, due to the availability of data, in this paper we refer to young people aged 14-29 years. economy and sociology 135 no. 1/ 2019 sociological explanation for these risk-taking behaviours by linking them to local social context in which young people inhabit. some scholars suggest that only by adopting a distinctively sociological as opposed to socio-epidemiological approach, behavioural factors can be appropriately situated, theorised and explained [11]. theoretical approach health behavior is defined as any activity people perform to maintain or improve their health, regardless of their perceived health status or whether the behavior actually achieves that goal [2]. generally, these can be health protective or confer health risk, may be intentional or unintentional and could have an immediate or long-term effect on people’s health. as mentioned above, this study focuses on smoking and alcohol consumption among youth, especially on binge drinking, as most harmful for individual’s health and investigate how these influence each other. traditionally, there are two main conceptual approaches for explaining health-related behaviours. the first one focus mainly on individual choice in explaining why people engage or not in health practices in terms of their reasons, knowledge, and health beliefs. it should be mentioned that belief models and other individualistic theories have been criticized for an overemphasis on individual choice and that have showed little impact on changing individual health behavior [12]. sociological theories are opposed to the individualistic ones and point on structural factors and social context in which individual inhabit, recognizing a role for structure as well as agency [13, 14]. it may be argued that sociological approaches reflect on inequality and power in society. from this point of view, health lifestyles are collective patterns of health-related behavior based on choices from options available to people according to their life chances” [13]. this definition within contemporary health lifestyle theory was developed by cockerham [13, 14] and reflects weber’s (1978) seminal conceptualization of lifestyles that evokes life choices and life chances relate with one another in a dialectical relationship. life choices are either empowered or constrained by a person’s life chances and likely to be consistent with the capability to achieve them. according to cockerham, structural life chances are influenced by material and social class circumstances: the degree of social stratification by age, gender, race/ethnicity; collective social relationships based on shared norms, ideals. further, all these variables provide the social context for the socialization process and influence people’s experiences throughout life that, and in turn shapes their capacity to make conscious, particular choices. as it can be seen, person’s life chances are largely described as being determined by social position and thus characteristic of particular status groups. this is also reflected in bourdieu’s (1984) concept of habitus. according to bourdieu, lifestyles are generated by a habitus, which is a range of dispositions used by individuals to guide and evaluate their behavioural choices and options; it is formed through socialization and experience, and is shaped by the individual’s class circumstances. this approach has been used to explain the rise of mortality in the former soviet countries, however, mainly focusing on russia. it was argued that a habitus producing an enduring disposition toward a negative health lifestyle appears to have become normative for many people, especially males, and reproduced over time when regularly acted out in unhealthy routine drinking, smoking, and other practices [15, 16, 17]. as well, according to many scholars little or no social stigma is attached to heavy drinkers and smokers in some societies. while it can argued that such a habitus is ultimately harmful, the dispositions it produces may though be the normative lifestyle for a person’s group or gender. general youth situation youth in the republic of moldova stand in a special position within the population and the country’s social and economic development. according to official statistics, young people aged 15-29 years accounts for about 22% of the total population. beginning with 2011, the number of young people is reducing considerably and according to specialists’ prognoses will continue to decrease [18]. many national and international studies show that young people in moldova face multiple and interdependent challenges. thus, youth multidimensional deprivation indicator show that more than one-third (36.2%) of young people suffer deprivations in multiple wellbeing dimensions (share of youth affected by multiple deficits in the areas of education, employment, health, civic participation and social inclusion at the same time) [19]. youth integration in the labour market is of particular concern in moldova. they are facing a range of challenges in their school to work transition. furthermore, economic recession and political instability still reduce their chances to integrate into the domestic labor market. currently, both the activity rates and theoretical and scientifical journal 136 no. 1 / 2019 employment rates are low for young people, while it is high the inactivity rate. according to the latest official statistics, the neet rate (not in employment, education or training) in moldova accounts for up to 29% among young people aged 15-29 years (2017), being one of the highest in europe. the general health status of young people in terms of both objective and subjective indicators performs better compared to other age groups. however, health challenges persist and are mostly related to health-risk behaviours. according to estimates, alcohol and tobacco consumption in moldovan youth is high and is still higher than the eu average, thus threatening adolescent and youth physical and mental health. this is mainly explained by a reduced awareness of individual responsibility for health, lack of preventive health behaviour, insufficient and poor quality of educational programs on healthy lifestyle etc. in this regard, it is important to update the data on prevalence and explore the socio-demographic factors of health-risk behaviours. this information could serve as a reference point on development national health education and health promotion policy, strategies and programs tailored for adolescents and young people. data and methods the paper is based on secondary data analysis of national youth survey of moldova among 14-29 aged population, commissioned by the eu-oecd youth inclusion project and ministry of education, culture and research of the republic of moldova. from the methodological point of view, this survey offers enough cases for advanced statistical analysis due to a large sample (n=1112 respondents). the survey “problems, values and aspiration of young people in moldova” was carried out in june 2016 in 92 urban and rural localities. questions related to smoking and drinking habits and associated demographic and socio-economic variables were used for secondary data analysis. data were analyzed using spss. multivariate analysis, adjusting for demographic co-variates was performed using logistic regression. the advantage of logistic regression is that it calculates the probability of a discrete outcome for each dependent variable, rather than predicting the effects of several continuous independent variables on a single dependent variable. the statistics presented express the direction and magnitude of the relationship between an independent and dependent variable. because several statistical tests were performed using a large sample size, statistical significance was taken as p<0.01. the 95 percent confidence intervals associated with the odds ratios are also reported. a limitation of the study is that while the overall sample size is relatively large, the small size of specific population subgroups, particularly in young women, where the number of smokers and binge drinkers is smaller, reduced the power to detect significant differences. socio-demographic data on respondents. table 1 gives some general demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the study respondents. as mentioned, this survey is representative for the population of moldova aged 14-29 years with a maximum standard error of ±3%. table 1 distribution of demographic and socio-demographic variables variables n valid, % gender male 524 47,1 female 588 52,9 age 14-19 years 334 30,0 20-24 years 366 32,9 24-29 years 413 37,1 residence urban 473 42,5 rural 639 57,5 marital status married / in partnership 484 43,5 unmarried 628 56,5 education primary / secondary school (low) 466 41,9 vocational / high school / post secondary school (medium) 419 37,7 university / post university (high) 226 20,3 occupation employed 309 27,8 neet (not in employment, nor in education) 376 33,8 pupil / student 358 32,2 other 69 6,2 source: survey “problems, values and aspiration of young people in moldova”, oecd and ministry of education, culture and research, 2016. economy and sociology 137 no. 1/ 2019 prevalence of smoking among young people smoking and heavy drinking habits are considered highly negative health lifestyle practices not only because of their strong relationship with specific diseases, such as different types of cancer, digestive and heart disease [7, 8, 10], but also due to their high economic and social costs for individual and society. as it was mentioned, in order to inform policy makers on the population subgroups at higher risk, it is crucial to define the prevalence and determinants of these health-risk behaviours and their social context. there is a consistent and large amount of evidence demonstrating that these health-risk behaviours are initiated in adolescence and youth [21]. this is especially true in case of smoking. thus, according to many studies, over 90 percent of daily smokers started to smoke by the age of 30 years [15, 17]. in this study, young people were asked several question related to smoking: if they currently smoke (yes, daily or occasionally and not smoking), for smokers – the average number of cigarettes they smoke daily and a question measuring young people’s attitudes toward smoking one cigarette or more per day (agreement or disagreement). the table 2 shows the prevalence of smoking among young people. there were calculated age and gender specific prevalence, and and gender differences in smoking habits were assessed using chi-squared tests and two-sample t-tests. as data shows, rates of male smoking are high, while rates in women are far lower. thus, about one third of young men aged 14-29 years are smoking daily and 13% – occasionally, while the prevalence among young women from the same age category is only 4% within daily and 2% within occasionally smokers. as it can be seen, the overall trend in smoking rates is for both male and female to increase with increasing age and the highest smoking rate is observed in male of 25-29 age category (41%). table 2 prevalence of smoking among young people, % yes, daily yes, occasionally no (non-smoker) male 14-19 years 13,7 12,4 73,9 20-24 years 34,1 15,6 50,3 25-29 years 41,3 10,6 48,1 total 30,4 12,8 56,8 female 14-19 years 1,2 1,7 97,1 20-24 years 3,6 2,1 94,3 25-29 years 6,7 2,7 90,6 total 4,1 2,2 93,7 total 14-19 years 7,2 6,9 85,9 20-24 years 18,1 8,5 73,4 25-29 years 22,5 6,3 71,2 16,5 7,2 76,3 source: survey “problems, values and aspiration of young people in moldova”, oecd and ministry of education, culture and research, 2016. there are several aspects to be elucidated regarding the low smoking rates among young women and that could lead to its underestimation. taking into consideration that questionnaires were administered in the respondents’ home and many of them are still living with parents, young women may avoid answering honestly to smoking related questions, as this is still culturally unacceptable among women in moldova, regardless of their age. on the other hand, it should be noted that statistical data for the last decades shows an increase in sales of slim, menthol and flavored cigarettes that are consumed mostly by women. as well, this trend is observed in marketing studies. nevertheless, many studies that are based on self-reported smoking status have confirmed that compared with male smoking patterns, smoking in women is far less common and has a different age-specific pattern in moldova compared to other countries [17]. moreover, the theoretical and scientifical journal 138 no. 1 / 2019 rates have been far slower to rise than would be expected given male rates and trends observed in the western countries [17]. the number of cigarettes smoked per day are often seen as main indicator of dependence and is used to assess the levels of moderate to severe nicotine dependency, as well is an indic ation of smokers’ ability to quit. the higher the number of smoked cigarettes per day, the higher is the level of nicotine dependency. in this context, it is worth mentioning that both most of young men and women that are smoking daily tend to smoke more than 10 cigarettes per day, while occasional smokers – under 10 cigarettes (table 3). table 3 number of cigarettes smoked per day, % yes, daily yes, occasionally male up to 10 cigarettes 50,4 49,6 more than 10 cigarettes 94,3 5,7 total 71,3 28,7 female up to 10 cigarettes 57,1 42,9 more than 10 cigarettes 88,9 11,1 total 64,9 35,1 total up to 10 cigarettes 51,7 48,3 more than 10 cigarettes 93,9 6,1 total 70,4 29,6 source: survey “problems, values and aspiration of young people in moldova”, oecd and ministry of education, culture and research, 2016. prevalence of alcohol drinking among young people over a long period of time, moldova was considered a traditional wine-drinking country, while current drinking patterns, especially of young generations, suggest a trend towards the homogenization of drinking habits and reveal the growing choices of alcoholic beverages available on the local markets due to opening to global alcohol markets [8]. besides, there is well known that moldova is amongst highest alcohol consuming countries in the world, even if a decreasing in the total alcohol per capita consumption is attested (from 21.6 litres in 2005 to 15.1 litres in 2016) [8]. most important is that according to many national [20, 22] and international reports [8], the harmful use of alcohol is among the leading risk factors for disease burden in populations both in moldova and worldwide. this study included the questions on alcohol intake (any alcoholic beverage like wine, beer, vodka or other liquor) during the last 12 month; frequency of drinking; frequency of heavy drinking, defined as 6 glasses of wine (600 gr.) or more, or 6 cups (300gr.) of strong drinks (vodka, brandy) consumed on one occasion. according to survey results, more than 70% of interviewed young persons reported that they consumed any alcoholic beverage like wine, beer, vodka or other strong spirits during the reference year. those who never drank alcohol were defined as abstainers. as would be expected, the highest rate of drinking prevalence is among male of 20-24 years (72%) and 25-29 years (81%), while the highest abstention rates were found among female of 14-19 years (67%). table 4 shows the reported frequency of alcohol consumption by age groups and gender. the proportion of young respondents who drink alcohol frequently (at least two times or more per week) is quite high for male for both age groups 20-24 and 25-29 years (22% in both cases). moreover, the prevalence rates of alcohol intake two or four times per month is particularly high in males from 20 to 29 years (about 40%). overall, young women are less likely to drink frequently any alcohol beverages. most of young women (75%) reported that they drink alcohol once in a month or even rarely. economy and sociology 139 no. 1/ 2019 table 4 frequency of alcohol consumption, % 2 times or more per week 2 or 4 times a month once in a month or rarely male 14-19 years 8,5 36,2 55,3 20-24 years 22,0 39,0 39,0 25-29 years 22,8 43,6 33,6 total 18,9 40,2 41,0 female 14-19 years 7,1 12,5 80,4 20-24 years 3,3 19,7 77,0 25-29 years 4,3 23,0 72,7 total 4,4 19,9 75,7 14-19 years 8,0 27,3 64,7 20-24 years 12,7 29,4 58,0 25-29 years 13,9 33,7 52,4 total 12,2 30,7 57,1 source: survey “problems, values and aspiration of young people in moldova”, oecd and ministry of education, culture and research, 2016. as mentioned, in this paper a special attention is given to the frequency of heavy drinking situations among young people. heavy episodic drinking is an important indicator of the pattern of alcohol consumption (defined as 600 gr. of wine. or more, or 300gr. of strong drinks at one occasion, and at least once per month) that can have a detrimental impact on individual’s physical and mental health. as well, heavy drinking has been identified as an important risk factor in different types of injury, such as unintentional injuries (road traffic injuries, drowning, poisoning, falls) and intentional injuries (suicide, violence). according to data, heavy drinking is clearly more frequent in men than in women (table 5). in this respect, it is noted that more than 70% of young males had at least one episode of heavy drinking during the year, while among them nearly 18% are consuming large amount of alcohol each month and 7% – every week or even more. despite an overall low prevalence rate of heavy drinkers among women compared to men, more than 40% of them had at least one heavy drinking occasions during the year. table 5 frequency of heavy drinking episodes (600 gr. of wine. or more, or 300 gr. of strong drinks at one occasion), % every week and more each month less than once a month never male 14-19 years 5,2 10,4 40,6 43,8 20-24 years 8,1 21,8 48,4 21,8 25-29 years 6,1 18,9 52,7 22,3 total 6,5 17,7 48,1 27,7 female 14-19 years 0,0 1,8 28,6 69,6 20-24 years 0,0 3,3 42,1 54,5 25-29 years 0,7 2,2 42,0 55,1 total 0,3 2,5 39,7 57,5 14-19 years 3,3 7,2 36,2 53,3 20-24 years 4,1 12,7 45,3 38,0 25-29 years 3,5 10,8 47,6 38,1 total 3,7 10,7 44,2 41,4 source: survey “problems, values and aspiration of young people in moldova”, oecd and ministry of education, culture and research, 2016. theoretical and scientifical journal 140 no. 1 / 2019 as in case of smoking, the alcohol consumption according to some scholars tends to be underestimated (deliberately or otherwise) by survey respondents [8], while underreporting of alcohol intake could be higher in women. as a rule, the volume of drinking from surveys is compared to the volume derived from alcohol sales data. due to the large amount of homemade wine consumption in moldova that are not officially registered, this can be hardly achieved. in many qualitative studies conducted both with young people and experts, the alcohol consumption comes out as one of the main behavioural risk behaviour among youth, especially among those not in employment, education or training – neet. thus, the results of neet study in moldova showed that health-risk behaviour, such as abusive alcohol consumption, is one of the major factor that places young people in this category or increases the risk of becoming neet [5]. however, this has come out during the interviews with main local stakeholders, rather than during the interviews with targeted young people. determinants of smoking and heavy drinking and their interrelation several major determinants have an impact on levels and patterns of tobacco and alcohol consumption. while some are individual factors such as gender, age, education, etc., others are environmental factors, such as availability of alcohol, policy regulation on tobacco products and alcoholic beverages etc. this paper looks at individual determinants of smoking and heavy alcohol use among young people and investigates the relationships between these health-risk behaviors. in this paper, current smokers were defined as young people reporting smoking daily, heavy drinkers were delimited as those who intake per occasion 600 gr. of wine or 300 gr. of strong drinks. the selected socio-demographic correlates of smoking and drinking included gender, age, marital status, area of residence, education level and occupational status. this analysis consists of a series of three statistical tests. the first examines the determinants of smoking, the second one explores the determinants of binge drinking, and the third investigates the relationship between smoking and drinking. although variations in the alcohol consumed need to be examined cautiously due to the small numbers of respondents in some sub-groups, particularly in women. there are described only statistical significant variables (sig ≤ 0,05). tables 6 and 7 show the distribution of the dependent and independent variables in the analysis. the variable of principal interest is gender and the results are noticeable. young men are more than nine times (exp(b)= 9,288) likely than young females to smoke cigarettes daily and, among drinkers, they are nearly nine times (exp(b)= 8,503) more likely to be binge drinkers – to drink a large amount alcohol at one occasion and at least once a month. the results for age suggest that young respondents aged 25-29 years are nearly four times more likely to drink frequently, be binge drinkers and they are significantly more likely to smoke daily. with respect to marital status, the results indicate that unmarried respondents are somewhat more expected to drink alcohol more frequently, while in case of smoking this variable is not statistically significant. table 6 determinants of smoking (smoking daily) b s.e. wald df sig. exp(b) 95% c.i.for exp(b) lower upper gender (male) 2,229 ,250 79,786 1 ,000 9,288 5,695 15,146 age (14-19) 13,078 2 ,001 age (20-24) ,876 ,316 7,683 1 ,006 2,402 1,293 4,464 age (25-29) 1,305 ,361 13,077 1 ,000 3,689 1,818 7,484 marital status (single) -,402 ,242 2,761 1 ,097 ,669 ,416 1,075 place of residence (rural) -,808 ,197 16,869 1 ,000 ,446 ,303 ,655 education (high) 14,649 2 ,001 education ,983 ,281 12,213 1 ,000 2,671 1,540 4,635 economy and sociology 141 no. 1/ 2019 b s.e. wald df sig. exp(b) 95% c.i.for exp(b) lower upper (medium) education (low) 1,062 ,293 13,129 1 ,000 2,894 1,629 5,141 status (pupil / student) 10,800 2 ,005 status (employed) 1,028 ,329 9,783 1 ,002 2,794 1,468 5,320 status (neet) ,990 ,324 9,362 1 ,002 2,692 1,428 5,077 constant -4,570 ,487 87,962 1 ,000 ,010 -2 log likelihood: 739,881a ; nagelkerke r square: ,322; df: 8 a. estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. source: survey “problems, values and aspiration of young people in moldova”, oecd and ministry of education, culture and research, 2016. the variables education and occupational status were quite powerful predictors overall of unhealthy lifestyle practices such as smoking and binge drinking. higher educated persons are less likely to smoke or to drink high volumes of alcohol per occasion compared to less educated young persons. thus, respondents with low level of education are nearly three times more likely to smoke daily and almost four times more likely to be binge drinkers. occupational status performed better in case of smoking – employed young people or neet youth had more chances to smoke daily compared to those involved in education. on the other hand, occupational status had no significant effect on binge drinking habits. place of residence had no significant effects on any of the dependent variables, despite an overall perception that in rural area the prevalence of smoking and drinking among young people is higher. table 7 determinants of heavy drinking b s.e. wald df sig. exp(b) 95% c.i.for exp(b) lower upper gender (male) 2,140 ,368 33,800 1 ,000 8,503 4,132 17,497 age (14-19) 9,420 2 ,009 age (20-24) 1,147 ,402 8,130 1 ,004 3,148 1,431 6,923 age (25-29) 1,336 ,461 8,406 1 ,004 3,802 1,541 9,378 status (single) -,899 ,348 6,672 1 ,010 ,407 ,206 ,805 place of residence (rural) ,415 ,259 2,569 1 ,109 1,514 ,912 2,516 education (high) 14,080 2 ,001 education (medium) ,510 ,386 1,748 1 ,186 1,666 ,782 3,548 education (low) 1,263 ,379 11,119 1 ,001 3,537 1,683 7,433 status (pupil / student) 1,360 2 ,507 status (employed) ,200 ,408 ,241 1 ,624 1,221 ,549 2,715 status (neet) ,422 ,392 1,157 1 ,282 1,524 ,707 3,287 constant -4,409 ,691 40,669 1 ,000 ,012 -2 log likelihood: 448,523a ; nagelkerke r square: ,253; df: 8 a. estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001 source: survey “problems, values and aspiration of young people in moldova”, oecd and ministry of education, culture and research, 2016. one of the main objective of this paper is to elucidate the relationship between heavy consumers of alcohol and tobacco consumption. it should be noted that the link between these health theoretical and scientifical journal 142 no. 1 / 2019 risk behavior and its impact on individual’s health is strong and it is well documented in many studies. for example, one of the main conclusion of swedish longitudinal is that the relative risk of head and neck cancers from heavy use of alcohol was 4.2 and from regular smoking was 6.3, while from both behaviours the relative risk has increased up to 22.1 [9]. this raises once again the issue of harms that can occur from heavy alcohol consumption and smoking. moreover, according to many scholars this relationship is “complementary” rather than “substitutive”. thus, a decrease of prices for alcohol beverages or tobacco products or increase in the availability of one of them is associated with an increase in the use of both products, against a “substitutive” relationship, where the use of the second product reduces when the first product becomes more available. as results show, the interrelation between smoking and binge drinking is strong (table 8). young people smoking daily are four times more likely (exp(b)= 4,211) to drink frequently (two or more times per week), while in case of regularly heavy drinking the relationship is more obvious. thus, those who are heavy smokers are almost eight times more likely (exp(b)= 7,952) to be heavy drinkers. in this context, it may be argued that each of this health-risk practice become a risk factor for the other practice. table 8 smoking daily and alcohol use determinants b s.e. wald df sig. exp(b) 95% c.i.for exp(b) lower upper drinking once a month and rarely 21,525 2 ,000 drinking 2 or 4 times per month ,748 ,232 10,441 1 ,001 2,113 1,342 3,327 drinking 2 or more times per week 1,438 ,324 19,707 1 ,000 4,211 2,232 7,946 never binge drinking 14,671 3 ,002 binge drinking less than once a month ,573 ,240 5,713 1 ,017 1,773 1,109 2,836 binge drinking each month ,865 ,341 6,423 1 ,011 2,376 1,217 4,638 binge drinking at least once a week and more 2,073 ,596 12,109 1 ,001 7,952 2,473 25,566 constant -2,201 ,198 123,215 1 ,000 ,111 -2 log likelihood: 642,805ª; nagelkerke r square: , 178; df: 4 source: survey “problems, values and aspiration of young people in moldova”, oecd and ministry of education, culture and research, 2016. conclusions the results of this study provide new information on the prevalence and socio-demographic determinants of smoking and drinking among young population in the republic of moldova. the data on these health-risk behaviours were obtained based on self-reported information, thus prone to some reporting bias, especially in case of young women. the study highlighted major between-gender differences in smoking and drinking correlates in the targeted population. gender and age was a strong determinant, and the observed lower likelihood of smoking and drinking at earlier ages is consistent with other surveys data. as well, young people with a lower education level were particularly likely to smoke and drink alcohol. the study revealed also a strong interrelation between these health-risk practices, while one of them may become a risk factor for other health-risk practices. it may be argued that high prevalence of smoking and drinking in male in young adulthood reflect a normative structure for male socializing. as it was mentioned, these normative drinking dispositions become routine and internalized by the habitus, and they may be reproduced over generations by being constantly acted out, as bourdieu (1984) explains in his work. even that we make talk that a person always have a choice, group norms can take precedence. in his work, bourdieu argues that people may have control over their lifestyle choices, but not necessarily over the social economy and sociology 143 no. 1/ 2019 and psychological conditions channeling those choices in a certain direction as opposed to others they might take. the study has also revealed that smoking is more prevalent among young men with low education level and neet, which might indicate to the growing concentration of health-risk behaviours among socially and economically marginalized groups. this is especially true when the data are correlated with heavy drinking. it can be also explained by the fact that these categories are less responsive to tobacco and alcohol control policies. taking into consideration that the strongest predictor variable overall was gender (male) and strong relationship between heavy drinking and smoking, we may argue that these factors are responsible for the increasing in premature deaths among males in the middle age. references 1. wilkinson, r., marmot, m. social determinants of health: the solid facts. 2nd edition. world health 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[accesat 10.02.2019]. disponibil: https://mmpsf.gov.md/sites/default/files/mda_ebp_alcohol_rom.pdf recommended for publication: 11.06.2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09581596.2014.980396 https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137355621_30 https://abdn.pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/living-conditions-lifestyles-and-health https://abdn.pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/living-conditions-lifestyles-and-health https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2009.01.019 https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/7250/cd2406aa09c36a545161848ada6fef2bafbb.pdf https://moldova.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/psa_engleza.pdf https://www.oecd.org/countries/moldova/youth_well-being_policy_review_moldova.pdf http://www.old2.ms.gov.md/sites/default/files/kap_survey-knowledge_attitudes_and_practices_regarding_alcohol_consumption_phase_i_phase_ii_and_phase_iii.pdf http://www.old2.ms.gov.md/sites/default/files/kap_survey-knowledge_attitudes_and_practices_regarding_alcohol_consumption_phase_i_phase_ii_and_phase_iii.pdf http://www.old2.ms.gov.md/sites/default/files/kap_survey-knowledge_attitudes_and_practices_regarding_alcohol_consumption_phase_i_phase_ii_and_phase_iii.pdf https://eppi.ioe.ac.uk/cms/portals/0/pdf%20reviews%20and%20summaries/vol%202_web.pdf?ver=2006-03-02-124349-650 https://eppi.ioe.ac.uk/cms/portals/0/pdf%20reviews%20and%20summaries/vol%202_web.pdf?ver=2006-03-02-124349-650 https://mmpsf.gov.md/sites/default/files/mda_ebp_alcohol_rom.pdf economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 87 gender profile of income and consumption: evidence from the national transfer accounts of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-08 olga gagauz, phd habilitation in sociology, national institute for economic research, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1175-1008 email: gagauz_olga@ince.md valeriu prohnitski, phd in economics, national institute for economic research https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1729-4650 email: prohnitchi@gmail.com received 17 january 2022 accepted for publication 24 may 2022 the study was carried out within the project 20.80009. 0807.21 «migrațion, demographic changes and situation stabilization policies», 2020-2023. the implementation of the nta methodology in moldova was carried out with the financial support of the population fund (unfpa). https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-08 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1175-1008 mailto:gagauz_olga@ince.md https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1729-4650 mailto:prohnitchi@gmail.com economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 88 abstract the use of the national transfer accounts (nta) methodology has opened up the possibility of examining gender differences in income and consumption throughout the life cycle. this article presents the results of the study of the gender profile of income and consumption based on the nta of moldova for 2019. moldova is characterized by a low level of employment, low incomes and a high involvement of the population in international labor migration. women's labor incomes are lower than men's throughout the life cycle, and the life cycle surplus is entirely formed by men, who are net donors to cover the life cycle deficit of other age groups during the working period. more than two-thirds of the economic life cycle deficit is held by women, and the gender gap in economic dependence records 22.7%. for men, the level of labor income exceeds consumption during 27 years, while for women, consumption exceed income throughout the entire life cycle. the differences at gender age profile of public consumption per capita are observed, especially for women at ages related to childbearing, and for men at retirement ages. the public transfers to health care (consumption of services) are significantly high for women both per capita and aggregate value. women`s contribution in the public funds formation in the most active working ages is significantly lower than that of men. the private current transfers cover a large part of the lcd, both men and women. keywords: national transfer accounts, gender differences, income, consumption, life cycle dificit. utilizarea metodologiei conturilor naționale de transfer (nta) a deschis posibilitatea examinării diferențelor de gen în ceea ce privește veniturile și consumul de-a lungul ciclului de viață. acest articol prezintă rezultatele studiului profilului de gen al veniturilor și consumului pe baza ant al republicii moldova pentru anul 2019. moldova se caracterizează printr-un nivel scăzut de ocupare a populației, venituri mici și o implicare ridicată a populației în migrația internațională a forței de muncă. veniturile din muncă ale femeilor sunt mai mici decât ale bărbaților pe tot parcursul ciclului de viață, iar surplusul ciclului de viață este format în întregime din bărbați, care sunt donatori neți pentru a acoperi deficitul ciclului de viață al altor grupe de vârstă în perioada de muncă. mai mult de două treimi din deficitul ciclului de viață economic este deținut de femei, iar decalajul de gen în dependența economică a fost de 22,7%. la bărbați, nivelul veniturilor din muncă depășește consumul timp de 27 de ani, iar la femei, consumul depășește veniturile pe tot parcursul ciclului de viață. există diferențe în profilul de vârstă și sex al consumului public pe cap de locuitor, în special la femeile aflate la vârsta fertilă, în timp ce la bărbații la vârsta de pensionare. transferurile publice pentru ocrotirea sănătății (consumul de servicii) sunt semnificativ mai mari pentru femei, atât pe cap de locuitor, cât și în termeni agregați. contribuția femeilor în formarea fondurilor publice la vârstele apte de muncă este semnificativ mai mică decât cea a bărbaților. transferurile private curente acoperă cea mai mare parte a deficitului ciclului economic de viață atât pentru bărbați, cât și pentru femei. cuvinte cheie: conturi naționale de transfer, diferențe de gen, venit, consum, deficit ciclului de viață. использование методологии национальных трансфертных счетов (нтс) открыло возможность для изучения гендерных различий в доходах и потреблении на протяжении всего жизненного цикла. в данной статье представлены результаты исследования гендерного профиля доходов и потребления на основе nta молдовы для 2019 года. молдова характеризуется низким уровнем занятости населения, низкими доходами и высокой вовлеченностью населения в международную трудовую миграцию. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 89 у женщин трудовые доходы ниже, чем у мужчин на протяжении всего жизненного цикла, а профицит полностью формируются мужчинами, которые являются чистыми донорами для покрытия дефицита жизненного цикла других возрастных групп в течение трудового периода. более двух третьих дефицита экономического жизненного цикла приходится на женщин, а гендерный разрыв в размере экономической зависимости составляет 22,7%. у мужчин уровень трудовых доходов превышает потребление в течение 27 лет, тогда как у женщин потребление превышает доходы на протяжении всего жизненного цикла. наблюдаются различия в половозрастном профиле общественного потребления на душу населения, особенно для женщин в репродуктивном возрасте, тогда как для мужчин в пенсионном возрасте. государственные трансферты на здравоохранение (потребление услуг) значительно выше для женщин как в расчете на душу населения, так и в совокупном выражении. доля женщин в формировании государственных фондов в наиболее трудоспособных возрастах существенно ниже, чем у мужчин. частные текущие трансферты покрывают большую часть дефицита экономического жизненного цикла, как мужчин, так и женщин. ключевые слова: национальные трансфертные счета, гендерные различия, доход, потребление, дефицит жизненного цикла. jel classification: j11, j16 udc: 316.346.2+330.564.2+330.567.22](478) introduction in moldova, as in other countries of eastern europe, the problem of the gender gap in economic independence remains relevant despite the fact that aspects related to ensuring gender equality are enshrined in main political documents, strategies and sectoral policies, and have budgets attached to them. a number of factors hinder the achievement of this goal, among which the uncertainty in the labor market and limited employment opportunities are key. during the three decades of independence, the employment rate in moldova has fallen to an extremely low level, less than 40% (2021), which is more than twice below that of sweden, which is the european leader in terms of employment. the employment rate of men is significantly higher and records 44.7%, while that of women is only 35.4% (nbs, 2022). in the conditions of a market economy, employment is not anymore assured for both women and men, while the widespread involvement of the moldovan population in labor migration has significantly altered the behavior of both labor migrants and their households’ members on the national labor market. for instance, due to low wages, many members of labor migrants' households prefer not working. the monetary and economic motivations of migration in early stage of country independence became the main life strategy of the population, evolved into a culture of socioeconomic behavior; as part of this culture, the well-being of an individual/family is associated, as a rule, with labor migration, which turned into a certain form of entrepreneurship. for the sake of illustration, the income from labor migration, according to the payment balance, in 2019 was 17.4 billion mdl which is 14.8% of the total labor income of the "household" sector. the number of preschool age children (0-6 years) is among the determinant factors of the of women`s participation in the labor market. the labor force survey shows that the employment rate for men with at least one child is 62.52%, while for women it is 39.4%. in moldova, there is also a high proportion of women in the category of inactive population 57.3% in 2019. the number of housewives records 156.4 thousand, or 95.7% of the total number of population taking care of the household. the insufficiency of pre-school education services, the reduced employment opportunities, especially in rural areas, forces women with small children to stay at home. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 90 in addition, general problems such as the wage gap, segregation of women into sectors of the economy featuring low wages, underemployment, which are typical for many countries in the region, also have a negative impact on the achievement of gender equality in economic independence. this paper examines the gender profile of income and consumption based on the 2019 national transfer accounts (nta) for moldova. theoretical framework of research the gender profile of income generation and consumption is based on the "gender contract" "a set of implicit and explicit rules governing gender relations, and which allocate different work, value, responsibilities and obligations to women and men, and are maintained on three levels: cultural superstructure (the norms and values of society); institutions (family welfare, education and employment systems, etc.); and socialization processes, notably in the family” (eige, 2022). the gender division of paid and unpaid work manifests itself differently in various countries of the european region. western european countries have been more successful in achieving gender equality in the socio-economic and private spheres, while in eastern european countries, including moldova, there is still a relatively high level of gender inequality. despite the fact that women in moldova have a higher level of education than men, their level of economic employment is lower and they are more involved than men in domestic unpaid work, producing material goods and services to meet the needs of family members. based on national surveys and the classification of gender contracts proposed by aboim (2010), it can be said that in the moldovan gender contract of family the unequal model is dominant: the man and woman work, but the woman still has most of the household chores. studies of the gender profile of income generation and consumption based on the nta show that in many european countries the income profile of women is noticeably smaller than that of men, with the exception of slovenia and, to some extent, sweden, finland and hungary (hammer, 2013). women's contribution to total labor income ranges from 24% in italy and the uk to around 41% in sweden, reflecting women's labor force participation and income at various ages. at the same time, women's contribution to the production of non-market goods and services (unpaid domestic labor) in all countries exceeds the contribution of men. with higher employment and higher wages, men contribute more to public funds (current public transfers/outflows) and finance a higher share of children's consumption than women. in most countries, per capita annual public old-age benefits are significantly lower for women, while total pension transfers are higher due to their longer life expectancy (hammer et al., 2020). however, despite the greater contribution of men to the formation of pension funds, the possibilities of using them (receiving an old-age pension) are much lower due to fewer years lived on pension because of a shorter life expectancy. some differences between men and women are found in public consumption spending in the health care and long-term care categories. women tend to account for a large share of government spending (zannella, 2017). gender and parenthood status become the crucial dimensions of private transfers. men are the main givers of private transfers, as they are also the main earners of labour income (abio et al., 2021). one of the important findings of the researchers is that the ability of the working-age population to support children and the elderly is greatly influenced by the participation of women in the labor market (hammer et al., 2015). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 91 research methodology the standard nta methodology (nta, 2013) was applied to calculate the moldova nta (2019). main aspects related to the age profile creation were taken into account, with the use of demographical, microeconomic and macroeconomic data. household budget survey (hbs) data for 2019 served to calculate the age profiles of incomes, consumption, current transfers and incomes from the redistribution of assets per capita. the labor force survey (lfs) data for the same year was also used to compare labor income profiles calculated based on the hbs. the 2019 data from the system of national accounts (sna) for 2019 were used to build nta at the aggregate level (aggregated transfer accounts). macroeconomic data show the volume of public and private consumption, labor income, income from self-employment, public and private current transfers, flows of asset-based reallocations. data from the ministry of finance, the state tax service and the national bank (balance of payments) were also taken into account. the nta macro controllers served to balance the per capita age profiles with the aggregated age profiles. the economic life cycle outcome, which is a measure of the age level of economic dependence, was defined as the difference between consumption and labor income (mason et al., 2005). children, like the elderly, have an economic life cycle deficit (+), i.e. average consumption during these periods exceeds average labor income. the economic life cycle surplus (-) is observed in the population of working age, when labor income exceeds consumption. the result of the life cycle allows to measure and analyze the degree of economic dependence of the population throughout life, including by gender. to study the gender profile of income and consumption, ntas for men and women were built based on the standard nta approach, with age profiles were estimated based on hbs data not only by age, but also by gender. public consumption of education services is estimated using enrollment rates by age, level and gender. the age profiles of consumption and labor income are adjusted so that the combined value of consumption and labor income balances with the value obtained from the sna for 2019. the gender gap in economic dependency is measured as the absolute difference in nta dependency ratios for both sexes, calculated as follows (istenič et al., 2018): where lcdf and lcdm represent the economic life cycle deficit (+) for women and men, respectively. the indicator shows the additional share of total labor income needed to finance women's economic dependency compared to the total labor income needed to finance men's economic dependency. research limits nta requires spending at the individual level, while the main data source – households budget survey provides data on spending at the household level. the allocation of expenditure at the household level to the relevant individuals required standard reallocation rules, econometric approaches and, in some cases, expert assumptions. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 92 an important limitation in assessing the income of the population of moldova is the likely underestimation of income of the population due to the refusal to indicate the amount of wages/income in the hbs, so the results of estimating labor income by age profile may be distorted, as well as estimates of the economic life cycle deficit. main results according to the nta of moldova, in 2019 the economic life cycle deficit (lcd) reached 67.6 billion mdl, the dependency ratio exceeded 59.1% (the ratio between the size of the lcd and global labor income). women account for more than two thirds of the lcd (69.2%) (table 1). the lcd for women records 40.1% of total labor income and for men 18.2%, respectively, the gender gap in the economic dependence is high 22.7%. at the same time, the total consumption of women is higher than that of men by 3.1 p.p. (53.1%), significant differences are observed in the consumption of public expenditures in the health care category (64.9%), as well as private expenditures 64.2%, which reflects the peculiarities of the structure of the moldovan population and a significant excess of the proportion of women in the old age group. coverage of the lcd is financed from various sources: public and private transfers, and property income. table 1. main indicators of labor income, consumption and lcd of men and women, nta moldova2019, billion mdl total women men women/men ratio in % lifecycle deficit 67.6 46.8 20.8 69,2 consumption 181.9 96.6 85.3 53,1 public consumption 32.0 17.5 14.5 54,6 public consumption, education 9.6 4.7 4.9 48,9 public consumption, health 8.5 5.5 3.0 64,9 public consumption, other than health and education 13.8 7.2 6.6 52,2 private consumption 149.9 79.1 70.8 52,8 private consumption, education 1.0 0.4 0.6 44,7 private consumption, health 4.6 3.0 1.7 64,2 private consumption, other than health and education 144.2 75.7 68.6 52,5 less: labor income 114.3 49.8 64.5 43,5 earnings 96.9 43.2 53.7 44,6 self-employment labor income 17.4 6.6 10.8 37,9 source: author`s calculations. the ratio of labor income and consumption among men and women determines the formation of the lcd (fig. 1 and 2). thus, for men, the level of labor income exceeds consumption between the ages of 24 and 51 (27 years), while for women, expenditures exceed consumption throughout the entire life economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 93 cycle, indicating their economic dependence. thus, the surplus of the economic life cycle in moldova is formed entirely by men. this situation is typical for a number of european countries, including economically-developed ones, and the differences are determined by the proportion of women employed part-time, retirement age, etc. the contribution of women to the formation of a surplus in the economic life cycle is the highest in slovenia, denmark, sweden and hungary. in cyprus, greece, romania, italy, slovakia and the united kingdom, surpluses are also almost entirely generated by men (hammer et al, 2015) figure 1. age distribution of income and consumption of men, nta -2019 figure 2. age distribution of income and consumption of women, nta-2019 source: author`s calculations. in the nta, the earned income shows its average market value at each age/age group and reflects employment rates, including full-time or part-time employment, depending on age. thus, the difference in labor income between men and women shows a different level of participation in the labor force, different labor income, consisting of wages of employees (including social contributions and additional benefits at a certain age) as well as income from self-employment. according to nta-2019, women's nominal per capita labor income was 70.5% of that of men, and wage income was 73.4%. gender differences in the age profile of working income are determined by the later entering of women in the labor market, the much higher enrollment rates in tertiary education and low participation in the labor market during the period associated with the birth and upbringing of children (up to 35 years of age, the labor income of women is almost twice lower than that of men). thus, in the most active working age (up to 50 years), the level of labor income of women is significantly lower than that of men. only starting from the age of 50, the size of the labor incomes of men and women converge, then again decrease due to earlier retirement (fig. 3). it should be noted that, in general, the average per capita income of both men and women is very low. thus, for men, the highest rates at young ages are a little more than 100 thousand mdl per year (about 5,000 euros), and for women they barely reach 70 thousand mdl (about 3,500 euros). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 94 figure 3. men`s and women`s annual labor income, consumption and life cycle deficit, per capita, mdl. note: lcd_m – life cycle deficit men, lcd_w – life cycle deficit women; cons_m – consumption men, cons_w – consumption women; yl_m – labor income men; yl_w – labor income women. source: author`s calculations. it should be noted that the profile of labor income for men and women is different. for men, the curve is shifted to the left (toward younger ages), and the maximum per capita income falls on the age of 30-37 years. perhaps this is due to the fact that the population of young ages is more represented in sectors with higher wages (it, trade, services, etc.), while the population of older ages is more heavily employed in agriculture, where, traditionally, wages are much lower. it should be noted that such a profile is typical for some cis countries (for example, russia) and developing countries (денисенко, козлов, 2019). in economically developed countries of europe such as austria, france, germany, italy, the distribution of labor income has a profile shifted to the right, towards more mature ages, while the maximum income from employment falls on the pre-retirement age, when people reach a high position in the professional sphere and receive higher wages (hammer et al, 2015). for women, the labor income curve has a more uniform profile with some shift to the right. the period of highest labor income (per capita) is between 35 and 55 years of age, reflecting the higher employment rate of women in the formal economy. income from self-employment makes up a small share of total labor income for both men and women. thus, for men, the annual rate per capita is 16.7% of the total labor income per capita, and for women 13.3%. however, income from self-employment for men (per capita) is almost twice as economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 95 high as for women in the most active working ages, while for women it increases in post-retirement ages, when a small pension forces self-employment to earn a living, the age profile of public consumption per capita for men and women differs at certain age intervals. for women, the excess is observed at young ages associated with childbearing (18-40 years), mainly due to child allowances and social assistance, and for men at retirement age due to higher pensions compared to women (fig.4 and 5). attention should be paid to the relatively low level of public transfers, other cash, (inflows) for women, reflecting benefits for childbearing and raising children. thus, the highest value is observed for the point corresponding to 30 years 13.4 thousand mdl per year per capita (about 600 euros). the aggregate indicator of public transfers, other cash, (inflows) for women aged 30-40 is 43.9% of the total consumption of this age group. figure 4. public transfers, inflows, men figure 5. public transfers, inflows, women source: author`s calculations. gender differences are also observed in the amount of net public transfers in terms of the duration of their receipt by older people. in 2019, women became net beneficiaries of transfers at age 58 and 6 months, and men at age 63. the total amount of old-age pension contributions is significantly lower for men, due to fewer years spent as pension recipients in old age. in moldova, there is a significant gender gap in life expectancy between men and women, which determines life expectancy in retirement. for women, life expectancy at age 58 is over 20 years, and for men at age 63, about 13 years4. thus, women are net beneficiaries of government transfers than men for about 7 years more. however, annual retirement benefits for women are significantly lower than for men due to lower pensions, and per capita public transfers are higher for men. the volume of public current transfers to education for men and women (per capita) does not differ, while transfers to health care (consumption of services) differ significantly both per capita and in aggregate. the volume of consumption of public services in health care (aggregate indicator) for women (6.0 billion mdl) is almost twice as much as for men (3.1 billion mdl), which is due both to the 4 life table. centre for demografic research, 2019. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 96 structure of the population (the predominance of the number of women, especially in older ages) and consumption characteristics. for women, the per capita lifetime consumption of health care services is about twice as high as for men starting at the age of 15 (fig.6 and 7). figure 6. public consumption, health, aggregate nominal, by gender, mdl figure 7. public consumption, health, per capita, nominal, by gender, mdl source: author`s calculations. in terms of private current transfers, they cover a large part of the lcd, both men and women, but there are some differences. the women`s contribution in private transfers (outflows) in the most active working ages is more than twice below that of men who are the main donors of private transfers, especially those aged 25 to 55 (fig. 8 and 9). figure 8. intrahousehold transfers (outflows), men figure 9. intrahousehold transfers (outflows), women source: author`s calculations. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 97 gender differences in transfers within the household (inflows) are manifested in the fact that at a young age, women receive higher transfers (other than health and education) compared to men for a longer period. thus, at the age of 18, the volume of transfers received by women per capita is 17% higher than by men, and at the age of 30 it is more than three times higher. women also receive higher savings returns (fig.10 and 11). figure 10. intrahousehold transfers (inflows), men figure 11. intrahousehold transfers (inflows), women source: author`s calculations. the percentage distribution of consumption flows for men and women by age groups (table 2) shows that for men, labor incomes cover 75.8% of consumption, while for women this is a little more than half (51.5%). since this indicator is calculated based on aggregated data, it also reflects the features of the age structure, in particular, a higher proportion of women in older ages. the gender profile of percentage consumption flows by age groups shows that there are no significant differences for the youngest (0-19 years old) and the oldest (65+). to the greatest extent, the differences are typical for the age group of 20-34 years old, associated with the reproductive function of women. during this period, labor income covers only 65.5% of their consumption, another 39.4% falls on private transfers. the role of public transfers in covering women's consumption during this period is low, moreover, this indicator has a minus sign (-5.1%), meaning that women's contribution to the formation of public funds (outflows) is higher than their consumption (inflow). in the 35-59 age group, the share of labor income in covering women's consumption rises to 88.8%, the share of private transfers decreases to 13.7%, and the share of income from the private asset’s redistribution increases (10.4%), while public transfers with a minus sign more than double the previous age group. for men in age groups 20-34 and 35-59, labor income exceeds consumption, that is, a surplus of financial resources is formed, which are distributed to other members of households. thus, private transfers act with a minus sign, amounting to 28.8% and 35.5%, respectively. in these age intervals, economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 98 the share of redistribution of private assets in relation to consumption increases for men, respectively 43.9% and 54.2%. at pre-retirement ages (60-64 years), the share of labor income in relation to consumption decreases to 55.2% for men, and to 35.9% for women due to the earlier retirement age. public transfers (pensions) in relation to consumption are 30.5% for women and 10.1% for men. the share from the private asset’s reallocation decreases to 33.8% for men, while for women, on the contrary, it increases to 25%, more than twice as compared with the previous age group. this is due to the high proportion of widows at these ages who become heads of households and, according to the nta methodology, these incomes are assigned to them. table 2. flows as a percent of consumption at each age range, % from aggregate values age groups all ages 0-19 20-34 35-59 60-64 65+ men labor income 75.6 6.3 115.9 111.3 55.2 18.8 private transfers -7.7 53.0 -28.8 -35.5 2.4 1.5 public transfers -6.6 22.3 -29.1 -28.1 10.1 47.3 public asset-based reallocations -1.6 -0.8 -1.9 -2.0 -1.5 -1.2 private asset-based reallocations 40.3 19.3 43.9 54.2 33.8 33.6 total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 women labor income 51.5 3.1 65.5 88.8 35.9 15.0 private transfers 26.8 56.9 39.4 13.7 9.6 9.4 public transfers 8.8 23.1 -5.1 -11.4 30.5 45.8 public asset-based reallocations -1.2 -0.8 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 private asset-based reallocations 14.1 17.7 1.6 10.4 25.0 30.7 total 100 100 100 100 100 100 source: author`s calculations. conclusions age profiles of labor income and consumption of men and women were analyzed by using the national transfer accounts (nta) for moldova (2019). the age distribution of labor income and consumption made it possible to show gender differences in the formation of a life cycle deficit, that is, a period when men or women earn more than they consume. the results showed that there is a large gap in labor income between men and women throughout the life cycle, while the gap in consumption is negligible at all ages except during childbearing years, when women account for significantly more of both public and private consumption. low labor incomes at working age and higher consumption during childbearing make women economically dependent throughout their lives. the contribution of men to the formation of public funds compared to the contributions of women is higher in working age, due to the large difference in labor income. because of higher employment and higher incomes, men contribute more to public funds and finance most of the consumption needs of children. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 99 the shortfall in the women's economic life cycle is financed mainly by private transfers, which underscores and perhaps exacerbates women's economic subordination and financial dependence. the low level of participation in the labor market, especially of women with children under the age of 6, as well as low social transfers compensating the costs associated with the birth and upbringing of children, may hinder the realization of the reproductive intentions of families. in the context of a declining birth rate and an acute demographic crisis (gagauz et al. 2021), increasing the role of the state in supporting families with children seems to be one of the important areas of social policy. note that this study focuses only on the market economy (unpaid domestic work is not included), while in all countries women perform (much) more unpaid domestic work than men (). time use data for moldova (from which unpaid work could be calculated and converted to monetary units) are only available for 2012, so it is not possible to analyze the gender gap, including unpaid domestic work. accounting for unpaid domestic work in measuring the gender dependency gap remains a challenge for future research. references abio, g., patxot, c., souto, g., & istenič, t. 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(2013). reallocation of resources across age in a comparative european setting. technical report. working paper, 13. https://ideas.repec.org/b/wfo/wstudy/46865.html hammer, b., prskawetz, a., freund, i. (2015). production activities and economic dependency by age and gender in europe: a cross-country comparison. the journal of the economics of ageing, 5, 86-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.09.007 hammer, b., spitzer, s., vargha, l., & istenič, t. (2020). the gender dimension of intergenerational transfers in europe. the journal of the economics of ageing, 15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2019.100234 istenič, t., ograjenšek, i. & sambt, j. (2018). the gender gap in economic dependency over the life cycle: some theoretical and practical considerations. economic research ekonomska istraživanja, 31(1), 188-205. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2018.1426479 mason, a. (2005). an overview of national transfer accounts. working paper. www.ntaccounts.org national transfer accounts manual: measuring and analysing the generational economy. (2013). united nations. https://ntaccounts.org/doc/repository/nta%20manual%202013.pdf national bureau of statistics of the republic of moldova. (2022). labour force in the republic of moldova: employment and unemployment in 2021. https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=en&id=7347&idc=168 zannella, m. (2017). the economic lifecycle, gender and intergenerational support. national transfer accounts for italy. springer briefs in population studies. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62669-7, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-62669-7_1 денисенко, м. б., & козлов, в. а. (2019). межпоколенческие счета и демографический дивиденд в россии. демографическое обозрение, 5(4), 6-35. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v5i4.8661, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2021.100348 https://doi.org/10.1111%2fj.1467-954x.2010.01899.x https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.ccd.2021.978-9975-89-248-3 https://eige.europa.eu/thesaurus/terms/1159 https://ideas.repec.org/b/wfo/wstudy/46865.html https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/the-journal-of-the-economics-of-ageing https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.09.007 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2019.100234 https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2018.1426479 http://www.ntaccounts.org/ https://ntaccounts.org/doc/repository/nta%20manual%202013.pdf https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=en&id=7347&idc=168 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62669-7 https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-62669-7_1 https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v5i4.8661 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 5 econometric assessment of the impact of economic indicators on the non-observed economy of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-01 alexandru stratan, habilitation in economics, professor, academy of economic studies of moldova https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7086-8604 e-mail: stratan.alexandru@ase.md tatiana gutium, phd in economics, national institute for economic research https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8884-3269 e-mail: gutium.tatiana1@gmail.com received 10 march 2022 accepted for publication 27 may 2022 mailto:gutium.tatiana1@gmail.com economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 6 abstract the non-observed economy is an integral part of the modern economic system, representing a threat to economic security in conditions of slow stagnation. the relevance of this study lies in the fact that the identification of factors influencing the non-observed economy makes it possible to develop proposals to combat this phenomenon. at the same time, some problems in econometrically modeling the dependence of the non-observed economy on socio-economic indicators are highlighted. the novelty and purpose of the study is the construction of models with one equation, where the endogenous variable is the level of the non-observed economy in value terms and the share of the non-observed economy in gdp. the main research methods are regression analysis and economic and mathematical modeling. at the first step of the study, the identified main factors of influence that determine the size of the shadow economy in twenty-eight countries of the world were systematized. in the next step, exogenous variables were identified based on the statistical data published by the national bureau of statistics of moldova. the econometric analysis software eviews 9 was used to develop the models of the dependence of the non-observed economy in moldova on socio-economic indicators. singleequation models were tested and checked first-order and second-order autocorrelation of the regression errors and heteroscedasticity. the constructed models showed that the growth of the main sectors of the national economy and an increase in the unemployment rate lead to the growth of the non-observed economy in moldova, while the rise in foreign trade turnover, namely imports, negatively affects the endogenous variable. there is a negative relationship between the freight turnover and the level of the non-observed economy. keywords: non-observed economy; economic indicators; regression analysis; economic and mathematical modeling; single-equation models. economia neobservată este o parte integrantă a sistemului economic modern, reprezentând un pericol pentru securitatea economică a statului în condițiile stagnării latente. relevanța acestui studiu constă în faptul că identificarea factorilor care influențează economia neobservată face posibilă elaborarea propunerilor de combatere a acestui fenomen. totodată, se evidențiază unele probleme în elaborarea modelelor econometrice a dependenței economiei neobservate de indicatorii socio-economici. noutatea și scopul studiului este construirea modelelor care conțin o singură ecuație, în care variabila endogenă este nivelul economiei neobservate în expresie valorică și ponderea economiei neobservate în pib. principalele metode de cercetare sunt analiza regresională și modelarea economico-matematică. la prima etapă a studiului, au fost sistematizați principalii factori de influență care determină nivelul economiei tenebre în douăzeci și opt de țări ale lumii. la etapa următoare, în baza seriilor de date statistice publicate de biroul național de statistică al moldovei, au fost identificate variabilele exogene. la elaborarea modelelor dependenței economiei neobservate în moldova de indicatorii socio-economici, a fost utilizat programul de analiză econometrică eviews 9. modelele cu o singură ecuație au fost testate, inclusiv a fost efectuată testarea autocorelării erorilor de ordin întâi și doi, și heteroscedasticității. modelele construite au arătat că creșterea principalelor sectoare ale economiei naționale și majorarea ratei șomajului duc la sporirea economiei neobservate în moldova, în timp ce majorarea volumului comerțului exterior, și anume a importurilor, are un impact negativ asupra variabilei endogene. o relație negativă se înregistrează între parcursul mărfurilor și nivelul economiei neobservate. cuvinte-cheie: economie neobservată; indicatori economici; analiza regresională; modelare economicomatematică; modele cu o singură ecuație. ненаблюдаемая экономика является неотъемлемой частью современной экономической системы и представляет угрозу для экономической безопасности государства в условиях вялотекущей стагнации. релевантность данного исследования состоит в том, что выявление economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 7 факторов влияния на ненаблюдаемую экономику позволяет разработать предложения по борьбе с данным явлением. в то же время, при эконометрическом моделировании зависимости ненаблюдаемой экономики от социально-экономических показателей были выявлены некоторые проблемы. новизна и цель исследования — построение ряда моделей с одним уравнением, где эндогенной переменной выступают уровень ненаблюдаемой экономики в стоимостном выражении и доля ненаблюдаемой экономики в ввп. основные методы исследования: регрессионный анализ и экономико-математическое моделирование. на первом этапе исследования были систематизированы выявленные основные факторы влияния, определяющие размер теневой экономики в двадцати восьми странах мира. на следующем этапе, отталкиваясь от статистических данных, опубликованных национальным бюро статистики молдовы, были определены экзогенные переменные. при построении моделей зависимости ненаблюдаемой экономики в молдове от социально-экономических показателей, была использована программа эконометрического анализа eviews 9. модели с одним уравнением были протестированы, в том числе на автокорреляцию случайных отклонений первого и второго порядка, и на наличие гетероскедастичности. построенные модели показали, что рост основных отраслей национальной экономики, а также повышение уровня безработицы приводит к росту ненаблюдаемой экономики в молдове, в то время как увеличение внешнеторгового оборота, а именно импорта, отрицательно влияет на эндогенную переменную. отрицательная зависимость была выявлена между грузооборотом и уровнем ненаблюдаемой экономики. ключевые слова: ненаблюдаемая экономика; экономические показатели; регрессионный анализ; экономико-математическое моделирование; модели с одним уравнением. jel classification: e26, o17, c20 udc: 330.43(478) introduction the non-observed economy is a significant and inevitable part of world economic activity. globalization has taken the shadow economy to a new higher level. this activity is unregulated, taxes are not being collected, and the state loses part of the income. informal employment leads to a decrease in wages, in the solvency of the population, and non-compliance with sanitary and safety standards. not only businesses but also governments are in contact with the shadow economy, which creates not only economic and ethical problems but also political ones. it is especially characteristic of least developed countries with a low level of population well-being. there is practically no type of economic activity in moldova that does not contain elements of the non-observed economy. this is a big problem for economic security of the country, especially in the current period. therefore, it is relevant to study the essence of the non-observed economy, identify the factors of influence to understand how to deal with it, and if not eradicate it at all, then at least reduce the level. the main objective of this study is to develop econometric models of the non-observed economy that would allow us to determine the main factors of influence and the direction of the correlation. this study is a continuance of the work “comparative analysis and adaptation of methods for assessing the non-observed economy (case of moldova)”. the novelty of this study is to elaborate models which differ from those developed by the world bank and from those worked out by the authors in previous works since the goal was not to assess the non-observed economy but to study the factors of influence and the direction of the relationship (positive or negative). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 8 literature review there are comparatively few papers in the world scientific literature that study the factors that influence the non-observed economy, especially using econometric modeling. while a number of methods are used for evaluation. the most commonly used methods are listed in table 1. table 1 some methods of evaluation of the non-observed economy methods the essence of the method scientific sources fiscal audit this is a direct method which could be used data obtained from direct sources – surveys, state tax service, etc. williams (2014) electricity consumption method this is an indirect method. the elasticity between electricity consumption and gross domestic product (gdp) is constant and approximately equal to 1. based on the dynamics of electricity consumption, it is possible to calculate the total gdp and compare it with the official gdp. kaufmann and kaliberda (1996) income-expenditure method based on the methodology of sna comparing income with expenditure, the hidden part of productive economic activity is quantified. schneider and kearney (2013) currency demand method this method is based on the assumption that all shadow transactions are made in cash, and the collection of taxes is the main reason for going underground. tanzi (1983) modeling method (for example: mimic multiple-indicators multiple-causes model) mimic method is used to determine the relationship between cause and indicator variables and the level of the non-observed economy, which is a latent variable. medina and schneider (2018) source: systematization by authors acca (association of chartered certified accountants) experts identified three key factors that determine the size of the shadow economy for each of the 28 countries studied. for the world economy, the most significant factors are bureaucratic quality, corruption control, and gdp (gross domestic product) per capita. the importance of each influence factor varies from country to country. for example, gdp growth, gdp per capita, and employment growth are the top three reasons for the increase in the size of the shadow economy in the usa. in the case of brazil, these are corruption control, bureaucratic quality, and the young population (% of the total population) (acca, 2017: 12). according to the acca survey of 28 countries, 60.71% named gdp growth one of the three main factors that determined the size of the shadow economy, 46.43% – corruption control, and 39.29% – bureaucratic quality (figure 1). thus, to reduce the shadow economy, most of the 28 countries need to increase the gdp growth rate, reduce corruption and improve the quality of the bureaucracy. based on the results obtained by acca, e. drobot and i. makarov systematized the factors influencing the shadow economy as: • economic factors, • business environment factors, • socio-demographic factors, • socio-environmental factors, • management factors, • scientific and technical factors. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 9 figure 1. the top influence factors that determine the size of the shadow economy by 28 countries source: calculated by authors based on the data from the acca (acca, 2017: 12) among the economic factors that have a significant impact on the shadow economy, scientists have identified a high tax burden, a recession in the local economy, the complexity of the tax system, a global recession, the ease of participating in the informal sector, and the ease of tax evasion (дробот & макаров, 2021). a. suslina and r. leuhin believe that to effectively bring the economy out of the shadow, it is necessary first of all to determine the fundamental causes of this phenomenon. the key factors shaping the shadow economy are “a relatively high tax burden, especially on taxes on labor (including social contributions), administrative barriers to doing business, poor quality of state public institutions, poor quality of labor market regulation, problems of illegal labor, corruption among representatives of the regulatory authorities” (суслина & леухин, 2016: 46). there are relatively more studies on the impact of the non-observed economy on the national economy (massenot & straub, 2016; elgin & oztunali, 2012; antunes et al., 2008; loayza et al., 2004) than surveys of factors influencing it (реутов & кифяк, 2021). at the same time, there is a relationship between these two groups of studies. while scientists from the first group argue that the nonobserved economy affects economic growth and gdp per capita, scientists from the second group are confident that these two indicators are among the top five influence factors on the level of the nonobserved economy. worth bearing in mind that ceyhun elgin & serdar birinci found that “the size of the informal economy is mainly associated with growth in total factor productivity, and this relationship very much interacts with gdp per capita” (elgin & birinci, 2016: 289). v. reutov and a. kifyak systematized the results of the study by v. zhukauskas (zhukauskas, 2015) and identified the following six main groups of factors that form the structure of shadow processes in the economy: • social security contributions and tax rates, • tax nihilism, • quality of public institutions, • effectiveness of the social provision, • regulation of the labor market, • the share of communal fees in the cost structure (реутов & кифяк, 2021: 95). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 10 there are a few surveys in this field in moldova. the object of research is to evaluate the nonobserved economy (costandachi, 2016; ganciucov et al., 2015), the perception of the population and companies on the informal economy (undp, 2021), and not to identify the influence factors. therefore, it led the authors to explore the factors influencing the unnoticed economy of moldova. data sources and used methods regression analysis and correlation analysis were applied to assess the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the non-observed economy. initially, 34 indicators were selected based on a logical analysis. the level of the non-observed economy in value terms and the share of the non-observed economy in the gdp were chosen as endogenous variables. the initial information for the formation of the database was the statistical data of the national bureau of statistics (nbs) of moldova (statbank, 2022) and the results of the calculation of the non-observed economy using the adapted currency demand approach (cda). the number of observations is 21 (2000-2020). the most significant socio-economic indicators were considered exogenous variables (34). all value indicators are in current prices. the authors encountered some problems in econometric modeling of the dependence of the nonobserved economy in moldova on socio-economic indicators. the first difficulty is the small sample of data for some indicators. the second difficulty is the incompatibility of the data to the previous period because bns modified the methodologies for estimating the following indicators: • bns modified the methodology of the household budget survey in 2019, and the statistical data on “consumption expenditures of the population” and “disposable incomes of the population” was interrupted this year • a new indicator, investments in non-current assets, was calculated starting 2017. it is not comparable with “investments in long-term tangible assets.” the data series of the second indicator was discontinued in 2016; • the data on the “volume of industrial production” are presented according to the new classifier of activities in the economy of moldova (caem-2) for the period 2011-2020. there are no data for the previous period (2000-2010); • the series of statistical data “volume of paid services rendered to population” was interrupted in 2011; etc. in the second stage, the indicators whose data series was interrupted and whose calculation methodology was modified were removed from the list of exogenous variables. as a result, out of 34 variables only 13 remained (table 2). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 11 table 2 system of exogenous variables designation exogenous variable unit agr gross agricultural production million lei cons value of construction works million lei road constructed new roads with hard surface kilometer x export million usd m import million usd tran transported goods million tonnes turn turnover of goods million tonnes-kilometers eleu monthly gross average earnings moldovan leu eeuro monthly gross average earnings euro eusd monthly gross average earnings us dollar arate activity rate percent erate employment rate percent urate unemployment rate percent econometric models of the dependence of the non-observed economy in moldova on the macroeconomic indicators were built using the program eviews 9. the models of the dependence of the non-observed economy in moldova on the macroeconomic indicators an analysis of the dynamics of and the share of the non-observed economy in gdp (calculated using the cda) showed that over 21 years, this indicator decreased by 18.2 percentage points (figure 2). according to the calculated trend line (logarithmic function), this indicator will decrease. figure 2. trend functions of the share of the non-observed economy in gdp source: calculated by authors note: y – the share of the non-observed economy in gdp; x – time. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 12 the presence of multicollinearity is one of the obstacles to the efficient application of regression analysis. it arises in the case of the existence of close statistical relationships between exogenous variables. using correlation analysis, you can identify and eliminate multicollinearity. for this purpose, a matrix of correlation coefficients between selected indicators was elaborated (table 3). table 3 matrix of correlation coefficients between exogenous variables agr cons road x m tran turn eleu eeuro eusd arate erate urate agr 1 0.611 0.796 0.741 0.641 0.665 0.652 0.945 0.917 0.884 -0.740 -0.695 -0.693 cons 0.611 1 0.731 0.715 0.676 0.771 0.742 0.975 0.974 0.954 -0.765 -0.715 -0.641 road 0.796 0.731 1 0.726 0.592 0.606 0.465 0.760 0.714 0.659 -0.414 -0.343 -0.769 x 0.741 0.715 0.726 1 0.960 0.614 0.688 0.908 0.927 0.942 -0.644 -0.606 -0.606 m 0.641 0.676 0.592 0.960 1 0.555 0.693 0.830 0.881 0.937 -0.800 -0.665 -0.605 tran 0.665 0.771 0.606 0.614 0.555 1 0.861 0.707 0.661 0.603 -0.400 -0.338 -0.680 turn 0.652 0.742 0.465 0.688 0.693 0.861 1 0.652 0.642 0.644 -0.681 -0.645 -0.660 eleu 0.945 0.975 0.760 0.908 0.830 0.707 0.652 1 0.988 0.949 -0.737 -0.692 -0.797 eeuro 0.917 0.974 0.714 0.927 0.881 0.661 0.642 0.988 1 0.984 -0.782 -0.742 -0.789 eusd 0.884 0.954 0.659 0.942 0.937 0.603 0.644 0.949 0.984 1 -0.850 -0.815 -0.796 arate -0.740 -0.765 -0.414 -0.644 -0.800 -0.400 -0.681 -0.737 -0.782 -0.850 1 0.994 0.667 erate -0.695 -0.715 -0.343 -0.606 -0.665 -0.338 -0.645 -0.692 -0.742 -0.815 0.994 1 0.584 urate -0.693 -0.641 -0.769 -0.606 -0.605 -0.680 -0.660 -0.797 -0.789 -0.796 0.667 0.584 1 source: authors’ computations using eviews 9 one indicator of multicollinearity between variables is the value of the pairwise correlation coefficient greater than 0.8. the high dependence is shown by such indicators as “monthly gross average earnings” (eleu) and “gross agricultural production” (agr), the correlation coefficient is (releu,agr = 0.945). in addition, the eleu factor correlates with such indicators as “value of construction works” (releu,cons = 0.975), “export” (releu,x = 0.908) and “import” (releu,m = 0.830). a new set of indicators has been formed following the exclusion of indicators that are multicollinear with each other. out of thirteen variables, eight remain for assessing the non-observed economy. the calculation of the pairwise correlation coefficient between the endogenous variable and exogenous variables showed that “gross agricultural production” has the greatest impact on the volume of the non-observed economy (rlnoe,agr = 0.970). “value of construction works” is in second place in terms of influence (rlnoe,cons = 0.942). this is followed by export (rlnoe,x = 0.912) and import (rlnoe,m = 0.806). the correlation coefficient between imports and exports is high (rx,m = 0.960), so only one of them can be used when developing a model. a fundamental task is to choose the type of function used in the simulation. a multiple linear regression analysis model is often used since this function is easy economically explain. however, the r-squared of the obtained single equation model was less than 0.7. therefore, the authors applied the logarithmic function. the following three models of the level of the non-observed economy in value terms were obtained. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 13 model 1. (1) model 2. (2) model 3. (3) where: lnoe – the level of the non-observed economy in value terms; d08 – dummy variable (it takes value 1 in 2008; it takes value 0 in 2000-2007 and 2009-2020). the authors chose a significance level of 5%. so, the critical level of the probability of rejecting the hypothesis h0, that the regression parameters are equal to zero, is 0.05. if the p-value is less than the established critical level, then the null hypothesis about the insignificance of the model coefficient is rejected, therefore, the coefficient is significant. in the case of model 1, variables ln(agr), ln(m), ln(turn), ln(eusd) and d08 turned out to be significant (table 4). however, variable ln(cons) is not significant, so the authors reject model 1 and continue testing models 2 and 3. table 4 testing the null hypothesis (the regression parameters are equal to zero) of models 1, 2 and 3 variables model 1 model 2 model 3 t-value p-value t-value p-value t-value p-value c 2.107 0.054 2.324 0.034 2.705 0.017 ln(agr) 12.358 0.000 10.552 0.000 7.806 0.000 ln(cons) 1.503 0.155 3.555 0.003 2.174 0.045 ln(m) -3.216 0.006 -2.392 0.029 – – ln(x) – – – – -2.360 0.033 ln(turn) -2.756 0.016 -4.734 0.000 -3.605 0.002 ln(eusd) 2.454 0.028 – – – – d08 -2.432 0.029 – – – – marginal level of the test 0.050 0.050 0.050 source: authors’ computations using eviews 9 table 5 shows the results of testing the quality of the remaining two models. the best among them is model 2, as it has a higher adjusted r-squared and lower information criterion (akaike, schwarz, hannan-quinn), lower the standard error of the regression, and the residual sum of squares. table 5 testing the quality of model 2 and model 3 model 2 model 3 r-squared 0.985 0.980 adjusted r-squared 0.982 0.975 s.e. of regression 0.094 0.109 sum of squared residuals 0.142 0.190 log likelihood 22.675 19.626 f-statistic 266.388 198.227 prob. (f-statistic) 0.000 0.000 akaike info criterion -1.683 -1.393 schwarz criterion -1.435 -1.144 hannan-quinn criterion -1.629 -1.339 source: authors’ computations using eviews 9 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 14 testing the second model for autocorrelation in the residuals and heteroskedasticity showed that it doesn’t have autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity (tables 8 and 9). according to equation (2), an increase in “gross agricultural production” by 1% will lead to a rising the level of the non-observed economy (noe) by 1.19%, and a growth of 1% in the “value of construction works” will lead to an increase in noe by 0.48%. the following indicators have a negative impact on the level of the non-observed economy: import and turnover of goods. growth in imports by 1% will carry to a decrease in noe by 0.37%. thus, the higher the import, the less profitable it is to engage in shadow business, since the market is saturated, there is no shortage. illegal import is much more difficult to implement than illegal export since it is necessary not only to hide the fact of smuggling when crossing the border but also to illegally sell products and hide the income received from the state. illegal import schemes are much more complex than illegal export schemes. as a result of econometric modelling of the dependence of the share of the non-observed economy in gdp on the macroeconomic indicators, the following four models were obtained. model 4. (4) model 5. (5) model 6. (6) model 7. (7) where: snoe – the share of the non-observed economy in gdp; d14, d17, d20 – dummy variables. as in the previous case, the significance level was set equal to 5%. table 6 presents the results of testing the null hypothesis for models 4-7. the probability that the null hypothesis is true for the variables ln(agr), ln(cons), ln(urate) of model 6 and the variables ln(x), ln(turn), and ln(urate) of model 7 are greater than 0.05. therefore, the authors reject models 6 and 7 and continue testing models 4 and 5. table 7 shows the results of testing the quality of model 4 and model 5. the quality of model 4 is higher than model 5 because it has a higher level of r-squared and adjusted r-squared, a lower level of information criteria and a lower level of the standard error of the regression, etc. table 6 testing the null hypothesis of models 4, 5, 6 and 7 variables model 4 model 5 model 6 model 7 t-value p-value t-value p-value t-value p-value t-value p-value c 12.790 0.000 9.824 0.000 7.321 0.000 5.258 0.000 ln(agr) 2.418 0.028 2.293 0.037 1.466 0.165 2.623 0.020 ln(cons) – – – – 1.005 0.332 -2.239 0.042 ln(m) -6.175 0.000 -6.273 0.000 -3.943 0.002 – – ln(x) – – – – – – -1.416 0.179 ln(turn) -4.094 0.001 -3.973 0.001 -3.717 0.002 -2.129 0.051 ln(urate) – – 2.135 0.050 1.553 0.143 1.026 0.322 d14 – – 2.167 0.046 2.293 0.038 – – d17 -2.392 0.029 – – – – – – d20 – – – – – – 2.499 0.026 marginal level of the test 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 source: authors’ computations using eviews 9 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 15 table 7 testing the quality of model 4 and model 5 model 4 model 5 r-squared 0.951 0.943 adjusted r-squared 0.935 0.928 s.e. of regression 0.047 0.049 sum of squared residuals 0.033 0.039 log likelihood 38.001 36.323 f-statistic 58.357 65.728 prob. (f-statistic) 0.000 0.000 akaike info criterion -3.048 -2.983 schwarz criterion -2.749 -2.734 hannan-quinn criterion -2.983 -2.929 source: authors’ computations using eviews 9 testing model 4 for autocorrelation in the residuals and heteroskedasticity showed that it does not have autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity (tables 8 and 9). the authors include a dummy variable for 2017, because all three factors, especially agriculture, recorded significant increases. table 8 breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test of model 2 and model 4 model 2 model 4 prob. prob. lag 1 c 0.856 0.997 ln(agr) 0.895 0.994 ln(cons) 0.908 – ln(m) 0.980 0.995 ln(turn) 0.850 0.999 d17 – 0.985 resid(-1) 0.482 0.966 prob. f(1, 15) 0.482 0.966 lag 2 c 0.928 0.774 ln(agr) 0.953 0.827 ln(cons) 0.936 – ln(m) 0.956 0.754 ln(turn) 0.935 0.808 d17 – 0.911 resid(-1) 0.462 0.965 resid(-2) 0.601 0.272 prob. f(2, 14) 0.684 0.535 source: authors’ computations using eviews 9 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 16 table 9 heteroskedasticity breusch-pagan-godfrey test of model 2 and model 4 model 2 model 4 prob. prob. c 0.884 0.138 ln(agr) 0.439 0.525 ln(cons) 0.723 – ln(m) 0.459 0.634 ln(turn) 0.648 0.266 d17 – 0.168 prob. f(4, 16) 0.777 0.357 source: authors’ computations using eviews 9 according to model 4, the “gross agricultural production” has a positive influence on the share of the non-observed economy in gdp, and the following indicators have a negative impact on the endogenous variable: import and turnover of goods. conclusions this study revealed that the increase in the level of the non-observed economy is affected by the growth of “gross agricultural production”, “value of construction works” and the decrease in import and turnover of goods. the authors did not include in the single equation models such indicators as the value of manufactured industrial production and turnover in retail trade of commodities due to the lack of data for 21 years, but the turnover of goods directly depends on these two variables. it is difficult for the tax authorities to verify retailers' income, as they come directly from individual consumers. the high level of the non-observed economy has a negative impact not only on the level of tax collections but is also a factor directly limiting economic growth. firms do not pay taxes on shadow activities and achieve significant cost reductions. tax-hidden funds are used to cover losses from low labor productivity and allow firms to receive additional income to be more competitive than firms that do not practice shadow activities. as a result, low-performing informal players do not go out of business and do not allow more productive formal enterprises and organizations to increase their market share. thus, in the short term, informal enterprises win in a competition and provide informal employment. in the long term, they negatively affect economic growth and the population's well-being, which loses part of the pension. to reduce the level of the non-observed economy, it is necessary to eliminate the causes and conditions that give rise to it, which are in the economic, political, social, labor, and other spheres of public life. given that the turnover of goods and imports are factors influencing the non-observed economy, it is necessary for the government to reduce the volume of the shadow economy in both areas. it is necessary to combat the practice of false declarations, smuggling and corruption. combating the non-observed economy should be based on the principle of balancing stimulus and tightening measures (the stick and carrot principle). one way to reduce the shadow sector is to expand non-cash turnover. the most elusive shadow segment for the tax authorities (small retail sales and the provision of personal services) has to voluntary transition to non-cash payments. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 17 references acca. 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(2021). оценка факторов и стрессоров теневой экономики: мировой опыт. теневая экономика, 5(1), pp. 53-77. https://doi.org/10.18334/tek.5.1.112236 реутов, в., & кифяк, а. (2021). факторы влияния теневой составляющей на экономику региона. экономика и управление, 2021, 7(73), 3, 94-105. суслина, а., & леухин, р. (2016). борьба с теневой экономикой в россии: частные аспекты общих проблем. финансовый журнал, 6, 46-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2007.10.006 https://doi.org/10.1016/s1514-0326(16)30011-3 http://ideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/repec/pdf/201205.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12301 https://statistica.gov.md/pageview.php?l=en&idc=407 https://doi.org/10.18334/tek.5.1.112236 1 economy and sociology circular economy in belarus: vision and prospects (survey results)1 nadezhda batova2, phd in economics, associate professor, institute of economics of the national academy of sciences of belarus irina tochitskaya3, phd in economics, associate professor, green economy expert yauheniya shershunovich4, phd student, center for development research (zef), university of bonn doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.2-04 jel: м 21, o 13, q01, q53, q57 udc: 338.2(476) abstract the circular economy is considered as one of the most important priorities in the national strategy for sustainable development of the republic of belarus until 2035. this opens new opportunities for increasing the competitiveness of traditional sectors of the economy and preserving a favourable environment as well as actualizing the issue of the readiness of the belarusian business for circular transformation. the purpose of the study is to explore how belarusian enterprises assess the possibilities of this transition, as well as to identify the barriers and drivers for the development of a circular economy in the republic of belarus. the information base of the study consists in theoretical and methodological scientific research by domestic and foreign scientists devoted to the circular economy, regulatory and information materials of ministries and departments, as well as information from official sites and other internet sources. the article presents the results of a series of surveys of belarusian business conducted in the 2019-2021 period the first survey dealt with the issues of waste management in the industry, construction, and trade in belarus (the first quarter of 2019). the second one was designed to determine the level of understanding of the circular economy concept by belarusian business. it used diagnostic interviews processed in the software product rep: grid get things straight by dr. rosenberger (2020). the third survey studied the possibilities of circular transformation in belarus (2020-2021). the results of the study show that the circular economy concept has not found widespread application in belarus, but there are already promising examples of the implementation of circular business models in the country. representatives of the traditional (linear) business model intend to involve secondary resources in the production process in certain production areas. enterprises with the elements of a closed cycle focus on the full and efficient use of resources and aim at increasing profits, including through the introduction of circular innovations in any production processes. keywords: circular economy, circular business models, barriers, belarus, survey. în strategia națională pentru dezvoltare durabilă a republicii belarus până în anul 2035, economia circulară este considerată drept una dintre cele mai importante priorități, ceea ce deschide noi oportunități pentru creșterea competitivității sectoarelor tradiționale ale economiei și menținerea mediului înconjurător favorabil, precum și actualizează pregătirea afacerilor din belarus pentru transformarea circulară. 1 the work was carried out within the economic research center development project beroc funded by sida. 2 nadezhda batova, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3971-4046, email: nbatava@gmail.com 3 irina tochitskaya, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6964-1453, email: tochitskayai@gmail.com 4yauheniya shershunovich, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8576-5648, email: janehallo@mail.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3971-4046 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6964-1453 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8576-5648 2 theoretical and scientifical journal scopul lucrării prezintă cercetarea modului în care întreprinderile din belarus evaluează posibilitățile unei astfel de tranziții, evidențierea barierelor și driverelor pentru dezvoltarea unei economii circulare în țară. baza informațională a studiului au constituit lucrările științifice teoretice și metodologice ale autorilor autohtoni și străini dedicate economiei circulare, materialele de reglementare și informare ale ministerelor și departamentelor, precum și informații de pe site-urile oficiale și alte surse din internet. articolul prezintă rezultatele unui sondaj al întreprinderilor din belarus realizat în perioada 2019-2021 privind problemele de gestionare a deșeurilor în industrie, construcții și comerț (primul trimestru al anului 2019), determinarea nivelului de percepție a conceptului de economie circulară de către antreprenori din belarus, realizat prin interviuri diagnostice și procesate în program rep:grid get things straight by dr. rosenberger, precum și prezintă cercetarea oportunităților de transformare circulară în belarus (2020-2021). rezultatele studiului au arătat că în belarus dezvoltarea conceptului de economie circulară nu a fost adoptată pe scară largă, dar există deja exemple eficiente de introducere a modelelor circulare de afaceri. reprezentanții modelului de afaceri tradițional (liniar) intenționează să implice resurse secundare în procesul de producție la locurile de producție individuale. întreprinderile circulare se concentrează pe utilizarea deplină și eficientă a resurselor și urmăresc creșterea profiturilor, inclusiv prin introducerea de inovații circulare în orice proces de producție. cuvinte cheie: economie circulară, modele de afaceri circulare, bariere, belarus, sondaje. циркулярная экономика рассматривается в национальной стратегии устойчивого развития республики беларусь до 2035 года как один из важнейших приоритетов. это открывает новые возможности для повышения конкурентоспособности традиционных секторов экономики и сохранения благоприятной окружающей среды и актуализирует вопрос готовности белорусского бизнеса к циркулярной трансформации. цель работы изучить как белорусские предприятия оценивают возможности такого перехода, а также барьеры и драйверы развития экономики замкнутого цикла в республике беларусь. информационной базой исследования послужили научные труды теоретического и методологического плана отечественных и зарубежных ученых, посвященные циркулярной экономике, нормативные и информационные материалы министерств и ведомств, а также информация с официальных сайтов и другие интернет-источники. в статье представлены результаты опроса белорусского бизнеса, проведенного в период 2019-2021 гг. касательно вопросов обращения с отходами в промышленности, строительстве и торговле в беларуси (первый квартал 2019 г.), определения уровня понимания концепции циркулярной экономики со стороны белорусского бизнеса, выполненное с помощью диагностических интервью, обработанных в программном продукте rep:grid get things straight by dr. rosenberger (2020 г.), исследования возможностей циркулярной трансформации в беларуси (2020-2021 гг.). результаты исследования показали, что в беларуси развитие концепции циркулярной экономики широкого распространения не получило, но эффективные примеры внедрения циркулярных бизнес-моделей уже есть. представители традиционной (линейной) бизнесмодели намерены вовлекать в производственный процесс вторичные ресурсы на отдельных производственных участках. предприятия с элементами замкнутого цикла ориентированы на полное и эффективное использование ресурсов и нацелены на увеличение прибыли, в том числе за счет внедрения циркулярных инноваций в любые производственные процессы. ключевые слова: циркулярная экономика, циркулярные бизнес-модели, барьеры, беларусь, опросы. 3 economy and sociology introduction topicality. despite the success of the traditional (linear) economy in the xx century, in the new millennium this method of organizing production processes which determines the relationship between production and consumption according to the principle “the more, the better” has fully revealed its shortcomings. according to experts (an economic and business rationale for an accelerated transition, 2013), in a forthcoming perspective, there will be a conscious transition of the society to sustainable production and consumption. one of the practical ways to achieve it is the introduction of circular business models. the economic effect of the introduction of a circular economy is (1) to reduce the consumption of raw materials and energy resources through the formation of a stable demand for secondary resources; (2) reduce the volume of waste generation, including its prevention and increase the share of its involvement in production processes; (3) the emergence of new markets and the expansion of demand for existing ones against the background of increasing environmental responsibility of the society; (4) formation of an innovation ecosystem and infrastructure development; (5) expansion of opportunities for the development of small and medium-sized businesses, etc. the environmental effect includes (1) the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions; (2) decrease in the area of waste storage and disposal facilities; (3) lowering of the consumption of scarce and limited resources. the social effect encompasses (1) an increase in the level of social responsibility for the careful use of material resources; (2) an environmentally friendly attitude towards used goods; (3) increase in the number of jobs due to the formation of new and transformation of traditional sectors of the circular economy, etc. enterprises can benefit from strengthening relationships with partners along the entire value chain, increasing the innovativeness of products and processes, increasing customer loyalty, gaining additional competitive advantages and new sources of income received; and consumers gain access to environmentally friendly products and, in some cases, with a decrease in their cost, due to cost reduction through the introduction of resource efficiency principles. theoretical importance. the article discusses the conceptual foundations of the formation and development of a circular economy. practical importance. practical use of the proposed results and recommendations for the implementation of the principles of a circular economy will ensure more efficient use of raw materials within production cycles and achievement of sustainable development in belarus. literature review theoretical background. at the present stage, the concept of a circular economy has started gaining popularity, since it meets the interests of business, the state and the population. there are three key advantages for business: practical depletion of natural resources increases costs of primary materials on the market; technological new technologies facilitate the principles of introducing a circular economy; consumer a circular approach to your own products allows you to improve communication with the consumer and offer them a product better than that of its competitors. for the state, accelerating urbanization creates an incentive to promote the development of a circular economy. for consumers, the advantage is the new circular product that the business offers. products designed initially as circular (for example, car-sharing, furniture for rent, etc.) attract the consumer with their unusualness and significant cost savings (olajos p., 2018). the circular economy concept combines the most widely demanded practical approaches from various scientific schools. the systematization of the existing concepts of the development of the ecological and economic system presented in various scientific schools made it possible to establish that the theoretical and methodological approaches that form the basis of the circular economy are not fundamentally new, but accumulate the results of research by scientists in the field of industrial ecology, eco-efficiency, regenerative design, etc.: performance economy walter r. stahel (1986); the functional economy: cultural and organizational change; 4 theoretical and scientifical journal industrial ecology frosch and gallopoulos, "strategies for manufacturing", 1989; eco-efficiency world business council for sustainable development (wbcsd), 1991; regenerative design john t. lyle "regenerative design for sustainable development", 1994; biomimicry janine m benyus biomimicry: innovation inspired by nature, 1997; cradle-to-cradle m. brungart and w. mcdonough / mcdonough & braungart cradle to cradle: rethinking the way we make things, 2002; “upcycle: beyond sustainability designing for abundance” / “the upcycle: beyond sustainability designing for abundance”, 2013; blue economy g. pauli, report of the club of rome "10 years, 100 innovations, 100 million new jobs", "10 years, 100 innovations, 100 million new jobs", 2011. the literature review made it possible to reveal that in foreign studies the term "circular" economy has many interpretations, the systematization of which enables to identify two fundamental approaches: resource oriented (geissdoerfer et al., 2017; geng et al., 2008; zink & geyer, 2017), implying a closed flow of materials, energy and waste, which can be achieved through reuse at the product level (repair or refurbishment), at the component level (reuse in production) and at the material level (recycling); economy oriented (bastein et al., 2013; hislop & hill, 2011; ingebrigtsen & jakobsen, 2007), according to which the circular economy is an economic system that takes the reuse of materials and the conservation of natural resources as its starting point, seeking to create value for the people and the economy in every part of the system. the definition given by the specialists of the ellen macarthur foundation unites these two approaches. according to it, the term “circular” refers to an economy that functions as an alternative, more holistic approach that imitates natural systems with a transition aimed at distancing economic growth from environmental problems. in recent years, one of the most common research tools is the method of qualitative data analysis, the results of which take the form of objective scientific conclusions. the specificity of the processes under study and the lack of official statistical information determines the relevance of using the survey method to study the degree of understanding and assess the possibilities of implementing a circular economy. it was this approach that was used to determine the benefits and risks of transition from the traditional (linear) production model to closed economic systems, as well as to substantiate promising directions and measures to stimulate such transformation, etc. in particular, the greenbiz group company in cooperation with ups conducted a survey of top management representatives to identify trends, factors of effective implementation of the principles of a circular economy. industry specifics, problems, opportunities, and prospects for the implementation of the principles of the circular economy in specific industries were identified using surveys by ing group. based on the survey results, the world health organization, identified the prospects assessed the direct and indirect benefits of reducing the negative impact on the environment because of the introduction of circular economy principles (who, 2018). data sources and methods used the data sources are the surveys by representatives of belarusian enterprises with various forms of ownership (state, private and mixed) located in all regions of the republic (brest, vitebsk, gomel, grodno, minsk, mogilev, and minsk). top management was also interviewed using the technique of repertoire grids and the software product rep: grid get things straight by dr. rosenberger for processing results. research and discussion results surveys of enterprises in 2019 on the use of waste and secondary raw materials confirm the growing interest in the problems of waste processing and the involvement of secondary material resources in the production process (figure 1). 5 economy and sociology figure 1. annual volume of production waste generation at industrial, construction and trade enterprises, % of enterprises note. 1. green arrows show the proportion of enterprises using waste in own activities, in the corresponding group by the volume of waste generation 2. source: figure based on the data by (сачек, шершунович, точицкая, 2019). in the industry, there is a pronounced tendency towards an increase in the use of waste in the own activities of an enterprise with an increase in the volume of its generation. this testifies the existence of a good base for the implementation of the principles of a circular economy in the industry of belarus. in construction, the share of waste-free organizations exceeds 30%. it is necessary to clarify here that the main activity of construction enterprises is construction and installation work. this type of activity allows them to reuse certain substances and objects when backfilling roads, pits and performing other construction work. in trade, less waste is generated and used than in construction and the industry. trade organizations most often transfer waste for recycling, since they themselves have neither production facilities for this, nor areas for storage, sorting waste, etc. in general, it should be noted that waste management issues are not a priority for enterprises. in this regard, it is of particular importance to increase the level of knowledge of enterprises on the functioning of the circular economy in their sector. studies to determine the level of understanding of the circular economy concept by the belarusian business carried out in 2020. the study was carried out using kelly repertory grid method. the results obtained enabled to answer the main research question: “to what extent does belarusian business understand and is ready for transition to a circular economy?”(н. н. батова, 2021). as a result, it was found that the level of understanding of the circular economy concept by the belarusian business is still in the formation stage, since the respondents have many disparate opinions regarding its essence, features and advantages of its implementation. many respondents view circular economy through the prism of environmental responsibility and resource efficiency, often equating the two. the majority of the respondents noted in their answers that the circular economy is an inevitable global trend, and it is inextricably linked with innovation, resource efficiency and new market opportunities. the respondents defined the modern model of the belarusian economy as more consistent with the traditional (linear) model (figure 2). 12,5 32,4 25 62 54,1 65,8 16,5 5,9 5,89 7,6 3,4 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% industry construction trade not formed 1-1000 tonnes 1001-5000 tonnes over 5000 tonnes 6 theoretical and scientifical journal figure 2 element-based analysis of the "circular economy" and belarus elements ratio source: figure based on the data by(н. н. батова, 2021). the need to comply with global trends and stay competitive both in belarus and abroad, as well as an increase in the environmental responsibility of business and a focus on resource efficiency are factors stimulating the development of a circular economy. at the same time, the fear of enterprises about a possible decrease in quality when recycled materials are involved in production processes and the lack of information about successful circular business models hinder the development of this direction. several elements and related factors have a multifaceted effect. thus, the requirements of the current belarusian legislation, on the one hand, do not restrict the introduction of a circular economy, moreover, they fully comply with its basic principles, but on the other hand, they do not contain incentive measures for the practical implementation of this concept. the development of scientific and technological progress undoubtedly has a positive effect on the development of the circular economy, but the high cost of innovation and long payback periods slow down these processes. low economic efficiency of enterprises, their focus on solving current problems hinders the development of a circular economy, at the same time, the economic efficiency of circular business models stimulates their implementation. elements such as “waste processing” and “secondary raw materials” form the basis of the circular economy and stimulate its development, while the underdevelopment of the internal market for secondary resources, imperfection of current waste collection and disposal system limit the possibilities of transition from the traditional (linear) model to the circular one (table 1). table 1. classification of circular economy development factors factors stimulating versatile action restraining resource efficiency secondary raw materials concerns about declining quality environmental responsibility of business waste recycling global trends innovations difficulties in scaling new opportunities / market niches economic efficiency representatives of traditional business models argue that this type of production organization prevails in belarus, and the circular economy is represented only by single business projects that cannot be effective without scaling. agreeing with this statement, the respondents of enterprises with a closed economic cycle indicate that in recent years the socio-ecological responsibility of business 7 economy and sociology has been increasing in the country, the issues of preserving natural resources and reducing the impact on the environment are becoming topical. representatives of the traditional (linear) business model in their activities focus on resource conservation and aim at maintaining the existing, albeit relatively small, but stable income. in the short term, while maintaining the previously selected specialization to increase the economic efficiency of the business, they intend to involve in the production process secondary resources in individual production areas. enterprises with elements of a closed cycle focus on the full and efficient use of resources and strive to increasing profits, including through the introduction of circular innovations in any production process. the respondents representing the enterprises of this group believe that in the future the adherence to the circular model will remain, and the main emphasis will be placed on the prevention of waste generation, therefore, the need for their recycling fades into the background. the technological superiority of such enterprises will ensure their competitive advantages and will expand their market niche.(н. н. батова, 2021). the study about the possibilities of circular transformation in belarus was conducted in 2020-2021 based on the survey of 403 enterprises. these enterprises were registered and operating in the territory of the republic of belarus with locations in brest, vitebsk, gomel, grodno, minsk, mogilev regions and minsk. the questionnaire contained five blocks of questions. among the survey participants: 61.5% are industrial enterprises; 20.3% are engaged in agricultural production; 11.9% work in the construction industry and 6.2% provide housing and communal services. 50.6% of respondents have private ownership, 38.0% state, 11.4% mixed. the largest share of the respondents falls on medium-sized (46.1%) and large (39.5%) enterprises, the average number of employees in which is 103 and 1425 people, respectively. the share of small businesses in the total sample is 11.4% with an average employee number of thirteen (батова et al., 2021). 12.4% of the respondents attributed their business to a model based on the principles of a circular economy, considering that it is more based on the “take, make, reuse” principle and is characterized by a minimization of the consumption of primary raw materials and the volume of processed resources, accompanied by a decrease in waste sent to disposal. a third of the respondents (27.3%) indicated that production processes are built according to the traditional (linear) model, which is based on the principle of “take, make, waste”, which leads to a constant increase in the burden on the environment, both in terms of extracting energy and materials useful for human economic activity from the ecosystem, and in terms of emissions of pollutants during the production, operation and disposal of various types of products. most of the enterprises participating in the survey (60.4%) have a transitional model, which is largely based on linear approaches to the organization of production processes, with the introduction of closed cycle individual elements. given that the effective implementation of the circular economy principles is directly related to understanding its concept, the respondents were asked to choose from several definitions the one that, in their opinion, most accurately describes it. at the same time, the enterprises participating in the survey were able to assess eight definitions using a scale from one to five, where 1 strongly disagree, 5 strongly agree. one of the definitions contained the most complete interpretation of it, and the remaining seven, reflected individual elements of a circular economy (table 2). as a result of the survey, it was found that representatives of the belarusian business, both with traditional and transitional models, generally have a narrow view of the circular economy essence. in particular, 31.6% of traditional and 28.5% of transitional enterprises believe that this is a theoretical business model that is difficult to apply in practice. this is a consequence of the lack of information on the best practices, as well as foreign and domestic experience in the application of the closed-cycle business model at enterprises of various industries. 53.4% of traditional enterprises consider the circular economy as a concept with the main goal to increase waste recycling, and 36.3% of the surveyed enterprises of this group consider it to be a linear business model with an emphasis on resource efficiency. 8 theoretical and scientifical journal table 2 distribution of respondents' answers to the question "how much do you agree with the following statements on the essence of circular economy?", % answer scale total 1 2 3 4 5 1. circular economy is a theoretical business model that is difficult to apply in practice 1.1. traditional (linear) model 11.2 17.4 39.8 15.3 16.3 100.0 1.2. circular model 31.8 22.7 29.6 6.8 9.1 100.0 1.3. transitional model 17.0 19.9 34.6 15.2 13.3 100.0 2. circular economy is like linear economy, but with more emphasis on resource efficiency 2.1. traditional (linear) model 9.1 20.2 34.4 24.2 12.1 100.0 2.2. circular model 15.6 15.6 20.0 28.9 20.0 100.0 2.3. transitional model 14.2 15.6 29.4 19.9 20.9 100.0 3. circular economy allows you to reuse resources and only deals with waste and increasing their recycling level 3.1. traditional (linear) model 6.9 12.9 26.7 28.7 24.8 100.0 3.2. circular model 6.8 9.1 34.1 31.8 18.2 100.0 3.3. transitional model 11.8 10.9 32.7 22.3 22.3 100.0 4. circular economy is an economy based on innovation, which, considering global trends, is gradually becoming a necessary condition for access to foreign markets 4.1. traditional (linear) model 12.8 16.0 19.1 27.7 24.5 100.0 4.2. circular model 8.9 11.1 20.0 31.1 28.9 100.0 4.3. transitional model 6.7 13.8 30.0 23.3 26.2 100.0 5. circular economy principles need to be embedded in product design and development 5.1. traditional (linear) model 6.2 4.1 19.6 34.0 36.1 100.0 5.2. circular model 7.0 4.7 23.3 25.6 39.5 100.0 5.3. transitional model 2.9 7.6 25.2 19.0 45.2 100.0 6. circular economy can develop only if consumers are willing to pay more for products produced in closed production systems, including from secondary resources 6.1. traditional (linear) model 18.9 12.6 27.4 23.2 17.9 100.0 6.2. circular model 17.1 17.1 24.4 19.5 22.0 100.0 6.3. transitional model 12.5 19.8 25.5 14.6 27.6 100.0 source: батова, точицкая, шершунович, 2021 almost half of the respondents (44.6%) with a transitional business model believe that the circular economy allows for the reuse of resources and only deals with waste and increased recycling rates, and 40.8% believe that it is a linear economy with a large emphasis on resource efficiency. the importance of the circular economy for export orientation, its relevance and innovativeness does not raise doubts among survey participants. 60% of the representatives of enterprises with a circular business model and about 50% with a traditional and transitional business model fully or partially agree with these arguments. most respondents (65–70% of those surveyed) indicated the need to implement the principles of a circular economy at the design and product development stage. more than 40% of the survey participants, regardless of the business model, consider a circular economy as an important component of not only sustainable production, but also consumption, supporting the point that this concept can develop subject to consumer support. to assess the prevalence and implementation of the circular economy principles by belarusian enterprises, respondents were asked whether they have elements of a closed cycle in production processes. 9 economy and sociology most respondents (76.0% of the circular, 67.3% of the linear and 65.6% of those with a transitional model) sell waste/secondary resources to other enterprises. the rather high proportion of such responses is largely due to legislation requirements on waste management, including the prevention of secondary material resources disposal. in the republic as a whole, the traditional types of secondary material resources (wastepaper and cardboard, glass, plastics, rubber-containing waste, including worn-out tires) usage level generated in the industrial sector is over 94%. the second most common element of a circular economy is the use of secondary raw materials in product manufacturing. however, among the traditional and transitional enterprises, the share of those who apply it in practice is significantly lower than among those using the closed-cycle model (42.7%, 45.7% and 64.0%, respectively) (figure 3). figure 3. the presence of the elements of a circular economy in the production model note. figure based on the data by (батова et al., 2021) about 40% of the circular enterprises participating in the survey noted that they reuse the product for initial or other purposes (43.9% of the respondents), process used products to create new raw materials or products (40.0%), and recycle certain fractions of used products for heat, electricity, a fertile soil (36.7%). together with the previous two, these three elements formed the top 5 most common elements of a circular economy in the enterprises with a closed production cycle. in turn, the linear enterprises implement measures for the maintenance and repair of the product to extend its useful life and life cycle, obtain heat, electricity, a fertile soil by processing individual fractions of used products. this was indicated by 28.2% and 25.0% of the respondents in this group, respectively. however, among the linear enterprises there are those who apply more progressive elements such as product processing to use new raw materials and products (23.2%). the enterprises of the transitional production model are engaged in the maintenance and repair of the product to extend its useful life and life cycle (34.4%), joint use with other enterprises of the 25 23,2 28,2 16,3 20,7 17,6 67,3 42,7 36,7 40 24,3 43,9 11,9 15,9 76 64 18,3 25,9 34,4 23,2 24,6 17,4 65,6 45,7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 8. recycling of selected fractions of the b-use product to produce heat, electricity, fertile soil 7. recycling of used products to create new raw materials or products 6. service and renovation of a product to extend its life and life cycle 5. reuse of a product for original or other purposes 4. sharing of product, service, logistics, databases, equipment, space with other enterprises 3. application of product-as-a-service business model in customer interactions 2. sale of waste/recyclable resources to other enterprises 1. use of recycled materials in the production of products transitional circular linear 10 theoretical and scientifical journal product, service, logistics, databases, equipment, space (24.6%) and recycling of used products to create new raw materials or products (23.2%). the least widespread business model is “product as a service”, which is used by only 15.9% of the circular enterprises, 17.6% of the transitional and 17.6% of the linear enterprises. the lack of prevalence of this model is largely because it presupposes a new way of interaction, both from the economic and organizational side, requiring a restructuring of production and sales processes. it should be emphasized that in terms of the level of implementation of such elements as "product as a service", "sharing", "maintenance and repair of a product" circular enterprises are significantly inferior to traditional and transitional ones. this allows us to conclude that the circularity in the belarusian economy has a pronounced production orientation and does not cover the service sector. this indicates that most enterprises are not yet ready or do not have enough knowledge about the new economic and organizational approach of interacting with customers, which presupposes long-term relationships with them based on the sale of services. however, it should be noted that not all industries can use this business model. to determine the potential and directions of circular transformation, the responses of the participants were systematized, considering the size of the enterprises, implying the possibility of introducing certain elements within the next three years (figure 4). the element of selling waste/recyclable resources to other enterprises will be the most common in the short term. the possibility of introducing this element (totally or partly agree) was indicated by 71.4% of the enterprises with a closed production cycle, 64.2% with a linear one and 61.4% with a transitional one. it should be noted that the creation of a fully functioning waste market is an important prerequisite for the development of a circular economy. at the same time, the sale of waste by an enterprise does not in itself mean that it will take further steps towards a circular business model. figure 4. preferred elements of a circular economy implementation according to respondents, % note. figure based on the data by (батова et al., 2021) 33,7 39,4 37,9 58,9 64,2 44,7 55 53,7 65,9 71,4 35,1 33,8 43,8 55,3 61,4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 recycling individual fractions of used products to produce heat, electricity, fertile soil recycling of used products to create new raw materials or products service and renovation of a product to extend its lifetime and extend its life cycle sharing of product, service, logistics, databases, equipment, space with other companies use of secondary raw materials from product manufacturing optimal use of production capacities and all useful product functions sale of waste/recyclable resources to other companies linear circular transitional 11 economy and sociology the second most popular element is the optimization of the production capacity use and all beneficial properties of the product. the development of this function was fully or partially supported by 65.9% of the circular, 58.9% of the traditional and 55.3% of the transitional enterprises. however, this component also lies more in the plane of resource efficiency, which, without using other elements of the circular business model, does not mean that traditional and transitional enterprises intend to abandon the linear economy. therefore, to understand the readiness for circular transformation, it is important to identify what other elements of the circular cycle these enterprises plan to implement. according to the survey results, traditional (linear) enterprises in the short term intend to develop the service and repair sector (39.4%), expand the use of secondary raw materials (37.9%), and process certain fractions of used products to generate heat and electricity, a fertile soil (33.7%). this indicates that these enterprises generally do not plan to go beyond the linear business model. in perspective, enterprises in the transitional stage of organizing production, plan to expand the share of used secondary raw materials in the manufacturing of products (43.8%), develop the sphere of processing used products to create new raw materials or products (35.1%), and share products, services, logistics, databases with other enterprises (33.8%). consequently, in this group of the enterprises, 34 to 44% of the respondents are ready to increase the degree of circularity of their business processes, and in some cases to abandon the linear business model altogether. circular enterprises also plan to build a system of joint use with other enterprises (55.0%), expand the use of secondary raw materials in the production of products (53.7%) and develop the use of secondary raw materials in product manufacturing (44.7%). only a third (33.3%) of the circular enterprises, a quarter (25.0%) of the transitional enterprises and a fifth (21.5%) of the linear enterprises positively assess the possibility of using the product-asa-service business model in the future. as noted earlier, this may be due both to the lack of knowledge about this model, and to the fact that enterprises are currently focused on elements of the circular economy to a greater extent related directly to production processes. according to the survey, most respondents believe that the development of the circular economy is constrained by several barriers. the lack of financial resources is an important and common barrier for all groups of respondents to the implementation of the principles of a circular economy. this is because most enterprises believe that the introduction of a circular economy should begin at the design and product development stage. the enterprises with a traditional (linear) and transitional production model identified the lack of technologies and information, primarily about successful projects, as the main barriers, while the circular enterprises attributed the lack of a unified electronic database on the availability of waste of secondary material resources to the main barrier. a significant part of the respondents who have a linear (61.8%) and transitional (66.8%) way of organizing production note that there are no technologies suitable for their enterprise. also, the representatives of these groups indicated a lack of information and practical examples of the successful implementation of circular projects 52.8% and 56.6%, respectively. at the same time, only a third of the circular enterprises participating in the survey share this position. moreover, 44.0% of the respondents in this group completely and partially disagree with the lack of information on the effectiveness of implementing circular economy principles and 33.3% do not agree with the argument about the absence of circular technologies. the enterprises with a transitional production model are most concerned about the lack of consulting services (44.1%) and express uncertainty about the uninterrupted supply of secondary raw materials (32.2%). at the same time, the circular enterprises (36.1% of respondents) are more worried about the absence of a unified electronic database on the availability of waste of secondary material resources compared to the other groups of respondents. despite the general similarity in assessing the significance of measures that can help in overcoming barriers that impede the implementation of the principles of a circular economy, there are some differences in the answers of the respondents. 12 theoretical and scientifical journal the belarusian business sees state support as the main driver of the circular transition both through the development and implementation of specialized state support programs and through tax incentives, as well as the development of infrastructure for processing waste and secondary material resources. thus, about 80% of the traditional (linear) enterprises and 70% of the transitional enterprises consider the development and implementation of support programs as the most effective incentive tool, while for the circular enterprises this is the second most important factor. the program of socio-economic development of the republic of belarus for 2021-2025, as part of the implementation of the environmental policy, sets the goal of providing environmentally friendly conditions for the life of citizens improving environmental protection, and effectively using natural resources. a prerequisite for achieving long-term targets is the greening of the industry, which ensures a decrease in the negative impact on the environment, the involvement of wastepaper, glass, polymer waste, worn tires, waste oils, waste electrical and electronic equipment and others into economic circulation, an increase in the production and consumption of environmentally friendly , that is, processed products. measures are outlined to develop mutually beneficial cooperation ties in terms of processing belarusian cellulose into special types of paper and cardboard for the domestic packaging industry, board products into furniture, wood waste and low-grade wood raw materials into fuel pellets and briquettes. it will also continue to implement a set of measures to gradually reduce the use of plastic packaging with its replacement with environmentally friendly ones, including glass and paper (republic of belarus ministry of economy (2021). the draft national action plan for the development of a green economy in the republic of belarus for 2021-2025 (ministry of natural resources and environmental protection (2021)), which is currently undergoing the final stage of approval by the republic of belarus council of ministers, provides a development strategy regarding the circular economy of the republic of belarus for the period up to 2035, as well as a number of measures to introduce the principles of the circular economy in various types of economic activity. conclusions the transition to innovative circular models is becoming global in nature, and the competitive advantages of the development of this concept are becoming more obvious. in general, the concept of a circular economy has not found widespread application in belarus, but there exist already effective examples for the implementation of circular business models in belarus. these are factories for the production of office paper from waste paper in the city of borisov (unitary enterprise “paper mill” of goznak), the use of waste oils in the krupsky district of the minsk region, the use of wood waste for biofuel production in the city of brest (pkup “kommunalnik”), operating services for the provision of rental housing, cars, bicycles and scooters; biogas energy complexes based on the use of agricultural waste in a number of agricultural organizations; implemented innovative projects for the introduction of lowwaste technologies at industrial and metallurgical enterprises, etc.(н. батова et al., 2021). the implemented projects on a "green" economy and cleaner production at individual enterprises have only opened a window of opportunity for a circular economy. for the formation of sustainable growth, further generalization of the results achieved in building "green" growth points and formulating directions that ensure an increase in the efficiency of the use of material resources is required. large-scale development and ensuring the effectiveness of the implementation of circular business models require a combination of technological advances, innovations, as well as joint efforts of stakeholders, business, and government representatives. studies show that representatives of the traditional (linear) business model intend to involve secondary resources in the production process in certain production areas soon, while maintaining the previously selected specialization to increase the economic efficiency of the business. . the enterprises with elements of a closed cycle are focused on the full and efficient use of resources and aim at increasing profits, including through the introduction of circular innovations in 13 economy and sociology any production process. the technological superiority of such enterprises in the long term will ensure their competitive advantages and will expand their market niche. considering modern global trends associated with, among other things, the introduction of mechanisms for cross-border carbon regulation, trends in the introduction of a circular economy in the belarusian economy, as well as subject to the development and implementation of a set of all measures planned for the current five-year period to develop a green, circular economy, the prospects for the implementation of these concepts in the medium and long term can be assessed as optimistic. the development of a circular economy in belarus will contribute to economic growth through more efficient use of available resources, recycling of waste and production of goods from secondary resources. references 1. bastein, t., roelofs, e., rietveld, e., & hoogendoorn, a. (2013). opportunities for a circular economy in the netherlands. 2. ellen macarthur foundation (ed.). (2013). an economic and business rationale for an accelerated transition. https://ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/towards-the-circular-economyvol-1-an-economic-and-business-rationale-for-an 3. geissdoerfer, m., savaget, p., bocken, n. m. p., & hultink, e. j. (2017). the circular economy – a new sustainability paradigm? journal of cleaner production, 143, 757–768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.12.048 4. geng, y., zhu, q., doberstein, b., & fujita, t. (2008). implementing china’s circular economy concept at the regional level: a review of progress in dalian, china. waste management (new york, n.y.), 29, 996–1002. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2008.06.036 5. hislop, h., & hill, j. (2011). green alliance reinventing the wheel—a circular economy for resource security. https://green-alliance.org.uk/page_77.php 6. ingebrigtsen, s., & jakobsen, o. d. (2007). circulation economics: theory and practice. peter lang. 7. who. (2018). circular economy and health: opportunities and risks. world health organization. regional office for europe. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/342218 8. zink, t., & geyer, r. (2017). circular economy rebound. journal of industrial ecology, 21(3), 593–602. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12545 9. батова, н. н. (2021). зеленая экономика как направление устойчивого развития республики беларусь. вестник кыргызского национального университета имени жусупа баласагына, 2 (106). https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=47427127 10. батова, н., точицкая, и., & шершунович, е. (2021). потенциал развития циркулярной экономики в беларуси: результаты опросов предприятий. beroc policy paper series, pp no. 25, 16. received 01 november 2021 accepted 15 december 2021 how to reduce the risk theoretical and scientifical journal 6 june no. 1/2021 on moldova’s incremental capital-output ratio and the design of economic policy apostolos papaphilippou1, phd, four assist development consulting limited doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-01 jel classification: e17, e29 czu: 330.55+338.2](478) abstract the paper analyses the notion of an economy’s incremental capital‐output ratio and proceeds to provide estimates of the incremental capital‐output ratio for the moldovan economy utilising national accounts data. the purpose of the study is to calculate estimates of the incremental capital‐ output ratio for the moldovan economy’s transition period to date, utilise the derived estimates to analyse aspects of economic growth in moldova over its transition period and use the average value of the incremental capital‐output ratio over the recent period for simulation and forecasting purposes. on the whole the reported empirical estimates of the incremental capital‐output ratio for the moldovan economy lie within the range of values reported in the economic literature . furthermore, the evolution of the incremental capital‐output ratio in the first few years of sustainable growth in moldova reflects the wide availability of unemployed or underemployed resources in the economy at the time thus allowing the achievement significant economic growth which was associated with low values of the incremental capital‐output ratio over the period. the paper proceeds to utilise the recent incremental capital‐output ratio estimates for the moldovan economy over the period 2015 to 2019 inclusive to calculate an average estimate of the incr emental capital‐output ratio and use this average estimate to generate estimates of the gross fixed capital formation ratios as a share of gdp required to reach a number of indicative growth paths in the medium to long term. it is notable that the growth p ath which is attainable given current conditions in the economy is close to the latest medium term forecasts by international financial institutions and the ministry of economy and infrastructure. the paper concludes by discussing the design of economic policy and development planning in moldova and suggesting areas for further work. keywords: gross fixed capital formation, gross domestic product, incremental capital‐output ratio, economic policy lucrarea analizează noțiunea de raportul incremental capital-ieșire (icor) al unei economii și prezintă estimări ale icor pentru economia republicii moldova, utilizând datele conturilor naționale. scopul studiului este de a calcula estimările icor pentru perioada de tranziție a economiei republicii moldova până în prezent, de a utiliza estimările derivate pentru a analiza aspecte ale creșterii economice din republica moldova în perioada de tranziție și de a utiliza valoarea medie a icor din perioadă recentă pentru simulare și prognoză. în ansamblu, estimările empirice ale raportului incremental capital-ieșire (icor) pentru economie se încadrează în intervalul de valori raportate în literatura economică. în plus, evoluția raportului incremental capital-ieșire (icor) în primii câțiva ani de creștere durabilă reflectă disponibilitatea largă a persoanelor șomere sau subocupate în economie la momentul respectiv, 1 id orcid 0000-0002-2193-4035, e-mail: papaphilippou@4assist.eu 1 the author holds a phd in economics from the university of cambridge and is currently the economic development planning expert of the eu-funded technical assistance project “support the moldovan government in identifying and preparing projects linked to the implementation of the association agreement”. the views expressed in the article are personal. the article has benefitted from comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers. e-mail: papaphilippou@4assist.eu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2193-4035 economy and sociology 7 june no. 1/2021 permițând astfel realizarea unei creșteri economice semnificative care a fost asociată cu valori scăzute ale raportului incremental al producției de capital pe parcursul perioadei. în lucrare se utilizezează estimările recente ale raportului incremental capital-ieșire (icor) pentru economia republicii moldova în perioada 2015-2019, inclusiv pentru a calcula o estimare medie a icor și a utilizarea aceasteia pentru a genera estimări ale ratelor brute de formare a capitalului fix ca pondere din pib necesară pentru a atinge o serie de căi orientative de creștere pe termen mediu și lung. este de remarcat faptul că calea de creștere care poate fi atinsă în condițiile actuale ale economiei este apropiată de cele mai recente prognoze pe termen mediu ale instituțiilor financiare internaționale și ale ministerului economiei și infrastructurii. lucrarea se încheie cu proiectarea politicii economice, planificarea dezvoltării în republica moldova și sugerând domenii pentru lucrări ulterioare. cuvinte cheie: formarea brută a capitalului fix, produsul intern brut, raportul incremental capital-ieșire (icor), politică economică в статье анализируется экономический термин предельный коэффициент капиталоотдачи (icor), а также осуществляются расчеты данного коэффициента для экономики республики молдова с использованием данных национальных счетов. цель исследования рассчитать значения предельного коэффициента капиталоотдачи для переходного периода молдавской экономики до настоящего времени, использовать полученные данные для анализа аспектов экономического роста в республике молдова в течение переходного периода и использовать среднее значение данного коэффициента за последний период с целью моделирования и прогнозирования. в целом, представленные эмпирические значения предельного коэффициента капиталоотдачи для экономики республики молдова находятся в пределах диапазона значений, приведенных в экономической литературе. кроме того, эволюция предельного коэффициента капиталоотдачи в первые несколько лет устойчивого роста отразила наличие большого количества безработных или работников с неполной занятостью в экономике, в то же время это позволило добиться значительного экономического роста, который был связан с низкими значениями данного коэффициента за данный период. в статье используются последние расчитанные данные предельного коэффициента капиталоотдачи для экономики республики молдова за период с 2015 по 2019 годы включая расчеты среднего значения данного коэффициента и использования данного среднего значения для получения оценок коэффициентов валового накопления основного капитала как доля ввп необходимая для достижения ряда ориентировочных траекторий роста в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе. примечательно, что траектория роста, достигаемая в нынешних условиях в экономике, близка к последним среднесрочным прогнозам международных финансовых институтов и министерства экономики и инфраструктуры. в заключении статьи предлагается к обсуждению разработка экономической политики и планирование развития в республике молдова, а также предлагаются направления для дальнейшей работы. ключевые слова: валовое накопление основного капитала, валовой внутренний продукт, предельный коэффициент капиталоотдачи, экономическая политика introduction the notion of an economy’s incremental capital‐output ratio (icor) has been widely used in theoretical and empirical work in economics. following the seminal contributions by harrod (harrod, 1939) and domar (domar, 1946), estimates of an economy’s icor have be en widely used by analysts to generate medium to long term forecasts of economic growth as a function of a projected investment path in the future or to generate estimates of the required volume of investments to support the attainment of a targeted path o f real gross domestic product for the economy under consideration. the purpose of this paper is to analyse the notion of the icor, provide estimates of the evolution of the icor for the moldovan economy over its transition period to date and compare the derived estimates with the values expected from studies in the economic literature, analyse aspects of economic growth in moldova in the light of the calculated icor estimates over time, utilise the average theoretical and scientifical journal 8 june no. 1/2021 value of the icor over the recent period to estimate the investment as a share of gdp which is required to reach a number of selected economic growth paths and discuss briefly the design of economic policy and development planning in moldova. the rest of the paper is organised as follows: the next section contains a brief literature review. it presents the definition of the icor and analyses briefly the icor’s properties, it presents the hypothesis regarding the expected range of values of the icor according to the economic literature and discusses the use of the icor for policy‐relevant simulation and forecasting purposes. the next section describes the data used for the analysis contained in the paper. these data include the annual evolution of the nominal gross fixed capital formation and the nominal gdp estimates, as well as the real annual gdp growth rates over the period 1995 to 2019 inclusive. the data section includes also an analysis of the evolution of the economy’s output over moldova’s transition period. the paper’s next section contains the main results of the paper. these include an analysis of the evolution of the icor over moldova’s transition period to date and the use of the average value of the icor over the period 2015 to 2019 to estimate the share of gross fixed capital formation in gdp required in order to reach a number of selected real annual growth paths. the paper concludes by discussing aspects linked to the design of economic policy and development planning in moldova and suggesting areas for further work. literature review following the seminal contribution in the economic literature by harrod (harrod, 1939) and domar (domar, 1946) the notion of an economy’s icor has been widely used in theoretical and empirical work in economics. more specifically estimates of an economy’s icor have been widely used to generate: • medium to long‐term forecasts of economic growth, as a function of a projected investment path in the future; or • estimates of the required volume of investments –or of the financing gap that need to be filled by additional investments‐ in order to support the attainment of a targeted path of real gdp for the economy under consideration. we define the icor of an economy at time t by the following equation: icor=i(t)/[gdp(t+1)–gdp(t)] (1) equation (1) defines the icor as the ratio between: 1. gross investment at t, i(t); over 2. the increase in the economy’s volume of gross domestic product (gdp) between t and the next period, t+1 (i.e., the difference between gdp(t+1) and gdp(t), both measures in prices of time t). dividing the numerator and denominator of equation (1) by the economy’s output at time t we arrive at the expression: icor={i(t)/gdp(t)}/{[gdp(t+1)–gdp(t)]/gdp(t)} (2) the numerator of equation (2) expresses the ratio of gross fixed capital formation to gdp, both measured at current prices of year t–which we will call the investment ratio. the denominator of equation (2) is the rate of growth of real gdp between time t and t+1. with regard to the icor’s characteristics and its range of values it is worth noting the following points: • in general, economic growth in any economy emerges out of a combination of a number of factors of production which, ‐in addition to investment and its addition to an economy’s stock of capital‐, includes also: land, labour, entrepreneurship and managerial skills, and institutional arrangements. growth may, therefore, emerge out of variations in the above-mentioned factors of production and their productivity through time and/or due to variations in their capacity utilisation. • equation (1) places emphasis on the importance of investment as a driver of economic economy and sociology 9 june no. 1/2021 growth and, furthermore, assumes a 1‐period time lag between investment and growth in output. equation (1) implicitly assumes that the other factors of production in addition to capital will be forthcoming to support the growth process in the future. • the typical value of the icor found in the economic literature is in the neighbourhood of 3. the available studies in the economic literature suggest that the icor value is likely to range between the values of 2 and 7, with the icor of industrialized countries expected to lie within the range of 3 to 3.5. this may be taken as the general hypothesis to be empirically investigated. a paper by ramos, pastor and rivas (2008) provided estimates of the icor for the latin american countries, with the average value of the icor for these economies being equal to 5.6. • the icor is frequently thought of as providing an indication of the efficiency of investment in an economy. more specifically the lower the value of the icor the higher the efficiency of investment in the economy. this can be readily seen if we re‐arrange equation (1) as follows: gdp(t+1) = [i(t)/icor] + gdp(t). now, and with the values of gdp(t) and i(t) given, the lower the value of the icor the higher the value of the economy’s output in the next period, i.e. the higher the value of gdp(t+1). • the value of the icor is unlikely to remain constant over time and, as gross and steinherr (gros & steinherr, 1995) note, in eastern europe the assumption of a constant icor may only be a reasonable approximation towards the end of the adjustment phase. • the icor for an economy should be estimated over a period which is considered as typical (or as normal) as possible, and is usually estimated as an average over several periods. furthermore, the value of the icor is a function of the economy’s relative position on the business cycle. as emphasised by thirlwall (thirlwall, 1989) in attempting to calculate icors the stage of the business cycle must always be born in mind. in particular, as noted by thirlwall (thirlwall, 1989), if the economy is working below capacity, very little extra capital will be needed to increase output and substantial growth may thus be associated with a relatively small icor value. in other words, it is well‐known that if the economy is working well below capacity substantial growth may be associated with relatively low investment. we will return to this point when analysing the evolution of the icor in the moldovan economy. turning to the use of the icor in empirical work, estimates of an economy’s icor are frequently used to generate: 1. medium to long‐term forecasts of economic growth, as a function of a projected future investment path, as from equation (1), and with the level of real investment determined for any time t, it readily follows that the path of real gdp is determined by the relationship gdp(t+1) = [i(t)/icor] + gdp(t). 2. estimates of the required volume of investments –or the financing gap that need to be filled by additional investment projects‐ to attain a targeted path of gdp for the economy under consideration. given a targeted path of real gdp over a future period, equation (1) may be re‐ arranged to provide a path of the required investment at any t through the relationship: i(t) = icor [[gdp(t+1) – gdp(t)]. to conclude the notion of the icor provides a useful conceptual framework for policy‐relevant simulation and forecasting exercises, which is widely used mostly because of its simplicity. at the same time, as easterly (2002) argued, it is worth keeping in mind that: 1. there is little empirical evidence to suggest that investment is either a necessary or a sufficient condition for economic growth in any economy; and 2. the emphasis placed upon simple calculations of investment needs and/or financing gaps has had the counterproductive effect of diverting attention from the deeper determinants of economic growth in any economy. from a practical point our view is that the analyst and policy advisor in any economy must try to reach a judgement regarding • the potential usefulness of the icor for analytical and forecasting purposes (and the plausible range of values for the economy under consideration); while • keeping in mind the need to avoid using the instrument in a mechanical way to generate simulations and forecasts, and the need to retain a focus on the deeper determinants of economic growth and welfare, which should be at the core of development planning and policy interventions in theoretical and scientifical journal 10 june no. 1/2021 the medium to long‐term. we will return to this point in the concluding section of this paper which discusses the design of economic policy. data and output developments over the transition period table 1 below provides the data used for the analysis contained in the paper. the table reports the annual estimates of the nominal gross fixed capital formation in moldova and moldova’s nominal gdp estimates, as well as the real annual gdp growth rates over the period 1995 to 2019 inclusive. the estimates were compiled by moldova’s national bureau of statistics and exclude the transnistrian region. table 1 the evolution of the nominal gross fixed capital formation, the nominal gdp and the real annual gdp growth rates over 1995-2019 gross fixed capital formation gross domestic product annual real gdp growth rate (%) 1995 1033791 6479715 -1.4 1996 1539894 7797562 -5.9 1997 1774214 8916975 1.6 1998 2011571 9122113 -6.5 1999 2271950 12321554 -3.4 2000 2472468 16019558 2.1 2001 3189965 19051531 6.1 2002 3681781 22555858 7.8 2003 5127275 27618918 6.6 2004 6786848 32031777 7.4 2005 9257932 37651869 7.5 2006 12691495 44754367 4.8 2007 18221720 53429571 3.0 2008 21391380 62921545 7.8 2009 13654952 60429803 -6.0 2010 19432907 86275377 7.1 2011 22877804 98772814 5.8 2012 24929093 105480184 -0.6 2013 27533035 119532871 9.0 2014 34562267 133481634 5.0 2015 35407562 145753642 -0.3 2016 35714916 160814564 4.4 2017 39868390 178880890 4.7 2018 46817866 192508553 4.3 2019 53012618 210378059 3.7 source: national bureau of statistics note: the gross fixed capital formation and gdp estimates reported in table 1 are in mdl thousand. the 1995 to 2009 nominal gross fixed capital formation and nominal gdp estimates were compiled according to the sna-93/esa-95 compilation methodology, while the 2010 to 2019 estimates were compiled according to the sna-2008/esa-2010 methodology. the data reported in the table exclude the transnistrian region it is notable that the data over the period 1995 – 2010 reported in table 1 exclude the early transition years following moldova’s independence in 1991 that were characterised by a collapse in the economy’s output. this significant drop in economic activity at the onset of the transition process has been common for many transition economies, but was particularly severe in the case of moldova due to: 1. the adverse terms of trade effect following moldova’s independence. the breakup of the soviet union implied that the moldovan economy lost access to both subsidized inputs to its production process economy and sociology 11 june no. 1/2021 (including energy), as well as subsidized markets for its export industries. indeed the empirical studies of orlowski (orlowski, 1993) and tarr (tarr david, 1994) suggest that moldova was the hardest hit among all fifteen former soviet union economies from the breakup of the soviet union; 2. the impact of natural disasters in 1992 and 1994; and 3. the adverse effect of the transnistrian conflict in 1992. it is clear from the evolution of the real gdp growth rate reported in table 1, that the economy experienced negative rates of growth over the period 1995 to 1999 inclusive, with the single exception being the very modest growth of 1.6 % achieved in 1997. from the year 2000 to the year 2008 inclusive the economy of moldova experienced a sustainable growth in output. this sustained growth episode ended in 2009 when a significant drop of 6 % was registered in moldova’s real gdp reflecting the adverse effect of the international financial crisis on moldova’s economy. growth resumed in 2010 and the period 2010-2019 is characterised by positive annual rates of growth of real gdp with the exceptions of the slight drops in real output registered in the year 2012 (-0.6 %) and the year 2015 (-0.3 %). main results this section utilises the data reported in table 1 above to calculate and analyse the evolution of: 1. the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp over the 1995 to 2019 period inclusive; and 2. the icor from the onset of sustained growth in the year 2000 onwards. the methodology used to derive the icor estimates in the paper relies upon the calculation of the icor as determined by equation (2) analysed in the literature review section. the results reported below exclude estimates for years when in the next period the economy’s real gdp registered a drop. as noted in the literature review section above, the icor for an economy should be estimated over a period which is considered as typical (or as normal) as possible, and is usually estimated as an average over several periods. after analysing aspects of economic growth in moldovan in the light of the calculated icor estimates the paper proceeds to use the average value of the icor over a recent period to estimate the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp required in order to reach selected economic growth paths in the medium to long term. with regard to the paper’s contribution, it is notable that, in addition to providing concrete estimates of the evolution of the icor for the moldovan economy through time and comparing these estimates with the expected values of the icor reported in the economic literature, the paper makes a contribution by providing an analysis of the evolution of the economy’s output over time in the light of the values of the calculated icor estimates. it furthermore uses the average value of the icor over a recent period to study the attainability of selected economic growth paths in the medium to long term and contrasts these results with the latest medium-term forecasts by international financial institutions and the ministry of economy and infrastructure. theoretical and scientifical journal 12 june no. 1/2021 graph 1 below depicts of the evolution of the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp over the 1995 to 2019 period. graph 1. the evolution of the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp over 1995-2019 source: own calculations on national bureau of statistics data it is notable that the period of sustained economic growth in moldova over the period 2000 to 2008 inclusive was accompanied by a significant increase in the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp from 15.4 % in 2000 to around 34 % in both 2007 and 2008. as depicted in graph 1 the 2009 financial crisis was accompanied by a significant drop in the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp to 22.6 % and the evolution of the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp from 2010 to 2019 has hovered around its average value of 23.6 % over the 2010-2019 period. we now turn to present estimates of the annual evolution of the icor calculated on the basis of the data reported in table 1 according to equation (2). we report icor estimates from the year 2000 onwards. it is notable that in the earlier period the annual real gdp growth rates were negative (with the exception of the 1997 estimate) and the icor estimates calculated on the basis of equation (2) are nonsensical. table 2 below depicts the evolution of the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp (which is referred to as the investment ratio in the table) the annual real gdp growth rate and the icor over the period 2000 to 2009 inclusive. table 2 the evolution of the gross fixed capital formation as a share of gdp (i ratio) the real gdp growth rate and the icor over 2000-2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 i ratio (%) 15.4 16.7 16.3 18.6 21.2 24.6 28.4 34.1 34.0 22.6 gdp growth (%) 2.1 6.1 7.8 6.6 7.4 7.5 4.8 3.0 7.8 -6.0 icor 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.8 5.1 9.5 4.4 … 3.2 source: national bureau of statistics and own calculations the first row in the table provides the evolution of the calculated investment ratio rounded to the first decimal point. the second row provides the evolution of the estimates of the annual rate of growth of real gdp. the final row provides the annual evolution of the calculated estimates of the icor rounded to the first decimal point which is defined in accordance with equation (2) by the ratio of: (i) the investment ratio at time t over (ii) the rate of growth of real gdp at time t+1. the estimate for 2008 is not reported given that moldova’s real gdp in 2009 registered a drop. as noted in the literature review section of this article existing empirical studies suggest that the icor value of an economy is likely to range between the values of 2 and 7. the range of icor values reported in table 2 above lie within this interval, with the single exception being the icor estimate for 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 economy and sociology 13 june no. 1/2021 2006 which reflects the relatively high investment ratio in 2006 (28.4 %) and the modest real growth in gdp experienced in 2007 (3.0 %). the icor values for the 2000-2004 are very low and well below the value of 3. it is notable that this is not surprising as the economy in 2000 emerged from the pronounced depression over the transition period to that date. during the first few years of the 2000-2008 sustainable growth experienced in moldova the economy operated with significant unemployed or underemployed resources due to the prolonged recession following the break-up of the former soviet union up to and including the year 1999. the availability of idle resources in the economy allowed the achievement of the significant economic growth experienced over the period 2000-2008 which was associated with low values of the icor over the period. we should also add that the relatively low value of the icor for 2009 reflects the rebound of economic activity in 2010 following the significant drop in output in 2009 (-6.0 %). table 3 below depicts the evolution of the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp (which is referred to as the investment ratio in the table) the annual real gdp growth rate and the icor over the period 2010 to 2019 inclusive. table 3 the evolution of the gross fixed capital formation as a share of gdp (i ratio) the real gdp growth rate and the icor over 2010-2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 i ratio (%) 22.5 23.2 23.6 23.0 25.9 24.3 22.2 22.3 24.3 25.2 gdp growth (%) 7.1 5.8 -0.6 9.0 5.0 -0.3 4.4 4.7 4.3 3.7 icor 3.9 … 2.6 4.6 … 5.5 4.7 5.2 6.6 … source: national bureau of statistics and own calculations it is notable that the icor estimate for the years 2011 and 2014 is are not reported in the above table as moldova’s real gdp registered drops in 2012 and 2015. the final estimates of the national accounts for 2020 are not yet available. however, the year 2020 is also likely to be exceptional due to the significant adverse impact of the pandemic and (to a lesser extent) the adverse impact of the drought on the economy’s gdp which is expected to register a significant drop. as noted in the literature review section of this article existing empirical studies suggest that the icor value of an economy is likely to range between the values of 2 and 7, with the icor of industrialized countries expected to lie within the range of 3 to 3.5. the paper by (ramos et al., 2008) provided estimates of the icor for the latin american countries, with the average value of the icor for these economies being 5.6. it is notable that all the values of the icor for the moldovan economy reported in table 3 lie within the range of expected values in the economic literature. the average value over the period 2015-2018 equals 5.5 and is thus very close to the value of the icor for the latin american countries reported in the paper by (ramos et al., 2008) as noted already in the literature review section using the estimated value of the icor we may generate forecasts of the gdp growth as a function of the projected investment or, alternatively, calculate the investment required in order to reach a targeted growth path. we will calculate below the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp which is required to reach annual growth paths of real gdp of 4%, 5 % and 6 % in the medium to long term. it should be emphasised here that an analyst should use the icor as an instrument to project the economy’s evolution in the medium to long term. in contrast short to medium term projections should rely more on a careful assessment of current economic conditions and their likely trends in the short to medium term. now it is notable that the 4%, 5 % and 6 % growth paths analysed below as possible medium to long run growth scenarios are slightly more optimistic that the latest short to medium term projections of real growth for the moldovan economy, with the 4 % scenario being closer to the short to medium term projections of the international monetary fund, the world bank and the ministry of economy and infrastructure of moldova. more specifically the latest country report for moldova of the international monetary fund projects the annual rate of growth of real gdp in 2021 at 4.1 %, to be followed by theoretical and scientifical journal 14 june no. 1/2021 annual rates of growth of real gdp equal to 3.8% per year for the years 2022 to 2025 inclusive (international monetary fund. european dept., 2020). in its december 2020 economic update for moldova the world bank projects the annual rate of growth of real gdp in 2021 at 3.8 % and the annual rate of growth of real gdp in 2022 at 3.7 % (the world bank, 2020). the latest forecast of moldova’s macroeconomic indicators for the years 2021-2023 published by the ministry of economy and infrastructure projects the annual rate of growth of real gdp in 2021 at 4.7 % to be followed by annual rates of growth of real gdp of 4.0 % and 4.2 % in 2022 and 2023 respectively (ministerul economiei şi infrastructurii al republicii moldova, 2020). turning to our estimation, and given an icor value equal to 5.5, in order to reach an annual 4 % real growth path the required ratio of gross fixed capital formation in gdp is 22%. for an annual 5 % growth path the required investment ratio is 27.5 %, while a 6 % growth path requires an investment ratio of 33 %. we have noted above that the evolution of the gross fixed capital formation ratio as a share of gdp from 2010 to 2019 has hovered around its average value of 23.6 % over the period. given current conditions our estimations suggest that the 4 % annual growth path is attainable. however attaining the 5 % and, especially, the 6% annual growth path would require significantly higher investment flows. it should be emphasised here that the above-mentioned estimates imply that the average value of the icor for the moldovan economy will remain constant and equal to its calculated average value. this is unlikely and the results should be taken as indicative given the current structure of the economy. furthermore, it is worth keeping in mind that the aim of development planning is likely to be to induce an increase in the overall efficiency of the economy aiming at leading eventually to a drop of the icor estimate for the economy. conclusion we now turn to discuss briefly the design of economic policy and development planning in moldova. the design and conduct of economic policy in moldova should aim at simultaneously: 1. increasing investment in the economy; and 2. inducing an increase in the overall efficiency of the economy (and the efficiency by which the factors of production combine in order to generate growth and development, thus leading to a drop in the value of the icor for the economy through time). to attain the first goal mentioned above a sustained effort should be undertaken to create and maintain a stable macroeconomic and regulatory environment which is conducive to the attraction and retention of domestic and foreign investment in the economy. of particular importance would be to strengthen the commercial banking system’s intermediation which would convert the available domestic savings into productive investment. this sustained effort to create the conditions conducive to investment attraction should also include promotion policies by policy makers supported by targeted interventions, such as the activities of the “invest moldova” organisation. the second goal of economic policy mentioned above should aim at designing and implementing appropriate development strategies at the macro and sectoral levels to induce sustained increases in the efficiency of the economy. efforts towards this end will be the efficient implementation of the association agreement with the eu and the existing national development strategy “moldova 2030”, which provides the general framework for the further development of a number of sectoral development strategies as indeed is envisaged in the national development strategy “moldova 2030”. it is notable here that work is currently underway by the moldovan authorities aiming at updating and optimising the sectoral strategies in various key sectors for moldova’s economic growth and development in the years to come which is likely to contribute to the attainment of moldova’s development objectives. a natural area for further work in the future is the calculation of the icor of the moldovan economy as it evolves through time given the icor indicator’s insight into aspects of the economic growth record over time and its usefulness for simulation and forecasting purposes. economy and sociology 15 june no. 1/2021 references 1. domar, e. d. (1946). capital expansion, rate of growth, and employment. econometrica, 14(2), 137. https://doi.org/10.2307/1905364 2. gros, d., & steinherr, a. (1995). winds of change: economic transition in central and eastern europe. 3. harrod, r. f. (1939). an essay in dynamic theory. the economic journal, 49(193), 14. https://doi.org/10.2307/2225181 4. international monetary fund. european dept. (2020). republic of moldova: staff report for the 2020 request for disbursement under the rapid credit facility and purchase under the rapid financing instrument-press release; staff report; and statement by the executive director for the republic of moldova. imf. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2020/04/22/republic-of-moldova-staffreport-for-the-2020-request-for-disbursement-under-the-rapid-49364 5. ministerul economiei şi infrastructurii al republicii moldova. (2020). notă cu privire la prognoza revizuită a principalilor indicatori macroeconomici pentru anii 2021-2023. https://mei.gov.md/sites/default/files/document/attachments/nota_prognoza_macronoiembrie_2020-site.pdf 6. orlowski, l. t. (1993). indirect transfers in trade among former soviet union republics: sources, patterns and policy responses in the post‐soviet period. europe-asia studies, 45(6), 1001–1024. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668139308412138 7. ramos, r. l. o., lisbeth, r., & gonzalo, c. p. (2008). latin america: highlights from the implementation of the system of national accounts 1993 (1993 sna). imf. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/latin-america-highlightsfrom-the-implementation-of-the-system-of-national-accounts-1993-22379 8. tarr david, g. (1994). the terms-of-trade effects of moving to world prices on countries of the former soviet union. journal of comparative economics, 18(1), 1–24. 9. the world bank. (2020). moldova economic update: winter 2020. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/152271608708764457/moldova-economic-update-dec22.pdf 10. thirlwall, a. p. (1989). growth and development. macmillan education uk. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-19837-5 article history received 22 september 2020 accepted 05 february 2021 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 72 regional changes in life expectancy and causes of death in moldova after independence doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-07 olga penina, doctor in medicine, associate professor, nicolae testemitanu state university of medicine and pharmacy https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3884-2751 email: olga.penina@usmf.md received 26 january 2022 accepted for publication 10 may 2022 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3884-2751 mailto:olga.penina@usmf.md economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 73 abstract. after the period of fluctuations related to the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s, life expectancy at birth in moldova mainly stagnated until 2005 in females and 2010 in males. recent trends show moderate improvements until the covid-19 pandemic. the article presents regional differences in mortality in moldova to identify the most problematic districts. data and methods: regional data on mortality by cause were analysed for three five-year periods around 1993, 2004 and 2014. differences in life expectancy at birth between the leading districts and the lagging districts were decomposed by age and cause of death. results: the gradient in life expectancy was revealed between the northern districts and the municipality of chisinau, where mortality is low, and the belt of the districts located mainly in the centre, where mortality is high. cardiovascular and digestive diseases in both sexes, as well as external causes of death in males were responsible for the interregional mortality differentiation. recent growth in life expectancy was accompanied by an increasing interregional differentiation of mortality from cardiovascular diseases among the elderly and external causes of death among the middle-aged. the progress was the most significant in the municipality of chisinau, while in the rest of the country, it largely reflected the recovery from the severe socio-economic crisis of the 1990s. conclusions: the districts falling within the red belt of high mortality have made no progress in terms of population health since independence. in this geographic area, preventive measures aimed at reducing the risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease, liver cirrhosis and external causes of death are needed. keywords: causes of death, life expectancy, moldova, mortality, regional analysis după perioada de fluctuații legate de criza socioeconomică din anii 1990, speranța de viață la naștere în moldova a stagnat până în 2005 la femei și până în 2010 la bărbați. tendințele recente arată o ameliorare moderată a situației până la pandemia de covid-19. în articol sunt prezentate diferențele regionale ale mortalității în moldova pentru a identifica cele mai problematice raioane. date și metode: datele regionale privind mortalitatea pe cauze de deces au fost analizate pentru trei perioade de cinci ani apropiate de anii 1993, 2004 și 2014. diferențele în speranța de viață la naștere între raioanele avansate și raioanele rămase în urmă au fost analizate din perspectiva vârstei și a cauzelor de deces. rezultate: diferențe în speranța de viață au fost evidențiate între raioanele nordice și municipiul chișinău, unde mortalitatea este scăzută, și centura raioanelor situate preponderent în centru, unde mortalitatea este înaltă. bolile cardiovasculare și ale tractului digestiv la ambele sexe, precum și cauzele externe de deces la bărbați au determinat diferențierea interregională sub aspectul mortalității. creșterea recentă a speranței de viață a fost însoțită de o diferențiere interregională crescândă a mortalității, cauzate de bolile cardiovasculare în rândul vârstnicilor și de cauzele externe de deces în rândul persoanelor de vârstă mijlocie. progresul cel mai semnificativ s-a înregistrat în municipiul chișinău, în timp ce în restul țării acesta a reflectat în mare măsură redresarea de după criza socioeconomică severă din anii ”90. concluzii: raioanele care se încadrează în centura roșie a mortalității înalte nu au înregistrat niciun progres în ceea ce privește sănătatea populației în perioada independenței. în această zonă geografică sunt necesare măsuri de prevenție, care să vizeze reducerea factorilor de risc asociați cu bolile cardiovasculare, ciroza hepatică și cauzele externe de deces. cuvinte cheie: cauze de deces, speranța de viață, moldova, analiza regională после периода колебаний, связанных с социально-экономическим кризисом 1990-х гг., ожидаемая продолжительность жизни при рождении в молдове в основном не регистрировала какого-либо прогресса до 2005 г. у женщин и до 2010 г. у мужчин. последние тенденции показывают умеренное улучшение здоровья населения вплоть до пандемии covid-19. в статье представлены региональные различия смертности в молдове с целью определения наиболее economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 74 проблемных районов. данные и методы: региональные данные по причинам смертности были проанализированы за три пятилетних периода, прилегающих к 1993, 2004 и 2014 гг. различия в ожидаемой продолжительности жизни при рождении между ведущими и отстающими районами были рассмотрены на основе декомпозиции по возрасту и причинам смерти. результаты: были выявлены различия в ожидаемой продолжительности жизни между северными районами и муниципием кишинэу, где смертность низкая, и поясом районов, расположенных в основном в центре, где смертность высокая. сердечно-сосудистые и пищеварительные заболевания у обоих полов, а также внешние причины смерти у мужчин определяют межрегиональную дифференциацию смертности. недавний рост продолжительности жизни сопровождался усилением межрегиональной дифференциации смертности от сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний среди пожилых людей и от внешних причин смерти среди лиц среднего возраста. прогресс был наиболее значимым в муниципии кишинэу, в то время как в остальной части страны он в большей степени отражал восстановление показателей после тяжелого социально-экономического кризиса ”90-х гг. выводы: районы, попадающие в красный пояс высокой смертности, не добились какого-либо прогресса в области здоровья населения за период независимости, что вызывает необходимость профилактических мер по снижению факторов риска сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний, цирроза печени и внешних причин смерти. ключевые слова: причины смерти, продолжительность жизни, молдова, региональный анализ jel classification: i100 udc: 614: 612.68+314.4+311.21:612.68(478) introduction in moldova, life expectancy has fluctuated over the past five decades without a great deal of progress, either during the soviet period or after independence. following rapid improvements in the early 1960s, life expectancy began to decline in both men and women. the anti-alcohol campaign initiated by the soviets in 1985 resulted in a significant but brief increase in life expectancy in 1985-89. after proclaiming independence in 1991, the situation started to deteriorate very rapidly, with the result that in the mid-1990s life expectancy was roughly in line with the values observed before the antialcohol campaign. short-term progress in life expectancy in the late 1990s did not indicate a reversal of the adverse long-term trend. among males, the situation remained stagnant until 2010, followed by very moderate improvements. among females, a steady life expectancy growth started in 2005 and accelerated after 2010. after 55 years of evolution, male life expectancy in 2019 (66.6 years) was just one year higher than in 1965. female life expectancy gained 5.0 years over the same period and reached 75.0 years in 2019 (penina et al., 2022). the covid-19 pandemic reduced life expectancy in 2020 for both males and females by approximately 1.0 years (gagauz et al., 2021). previous studies on cause-specific mortality trends in moldova showed that the long-term decline and short-term fluctuations in moldovan life expectancy were mainly driven by three causes of death: diseases of the circulatory system and digestive system in both sexes and external causes of death in men. recent improvements were largely due to a steady decline in mortality from cerebrovascular diseases among older females and mortality from external causes of death among young males. further, an exceptionally high level of mortality from diseases of the digestive system with no obvious gender gap was found as a particular characteristic of the moldovan mortality pattern (penina, 2017). this paper looks at the evolution of regional disparities of mortality in moldova during the period of independence since 1991. we focus on three five-year periods, which represent the following periods in the post-independence life expectancy evolution (fig. 1): economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 75 • the period of socio-economic crisis (1991-1995) during which life expectancy declined rapidly; • the stagnation period (2002-2006) when life expectancy after a short post-crisis recovery in the late 1990s mainly stagnated for both sexes; • the period of recent improvements (2012-2016) in which life expectancy started increasing. figure 1. life expectancy at birth since the late 1950s in moldova, by sex notion: the vertical lines refer to three study periods: socio-economic crisis (1991-1995), stagnation (2002-2006) and recent improvement (2012-2016). source: (penina et al., 2022) the main hypothesis of the study is that the high level of mortality in the country coexists with important regional variations in mortality, which are not constant over time. our research questions are as follows: 1. how has the regional pattern of life expectancy at birth in moldova changed during the three periods? 2. what causes of death and what age groups account for the interregional variation in life expectancy and how has their impact evolved? literature review studies on regional differentiation of mortality, including in small areas, have always been at the centre of concerns of public health experts, as they provide valuable information for effective health policies (denisenco, 2007). for example, the geographical diversity of mortality in ukraine between the leading western regions and lagging eastern regions in males or south-eastern regions in females was primarily economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 76 attributable to cardiovascular diseases and external causes of death (poniakina, 2014). more recent studies on regional mortality differences in this country showed that in addition to the south, with historically low life expectancy, the north has emerged as a region with the worst situation in mortality (levchuk and luschik, 2019). a distinct division was found between the southwest and north-east in russia both in terms of total mortality and cause-specific mortality patterns (vallin et al., 2005). interregional disparities in belarus were mainly due to a growing advantage of the capital vis-à-vis the rest of the country (grigoriev et al., 2013). moreover, in belarus, extremely high mortality rates from alcohol poisoning were found in the areas bordering russia and lithuania (grigoriev et al., 2016). the republic of moldova comprises three geographical regions (north, centre and south), transnistria and the municipality of chisinau with the capital of the same name (fig. 2). transnistria, located in the eastern part of the country, announced its independence in 1990, but moldova still considers it part of its country. after proclaiming independence in 1991, moldova adopted the soviet territorialadministrative division, according to which the country was divided into 40 districts called “rayon”, four city soviets and six cities of republican subordination. in 1990, the names of some localities were changed or restored. in 1994, the new law on the territorial-administrative division was adopted, whereby the country consisted of 38 districts, four municipalities (chisinau, balti, bender and tiraspol) and autonomous territorial unit (atu) gagauzia that received a special status. the administrativeterritorial division was changed in 1999 when the districts were merged into bigger counties called “judet”. the country was divided into ten counties, the municipality of chisinau, atu gagauzia and transnistria. this division remained in existence until 2002 when the principle of district-based classification was reinstated. since 2003, the administrative division consists of 32 districts, the municipalities of chisinau and balti, atu gagauzia and transnistria. following the return to the district-based division, two districts (causeni and vulcanesti) that existed before 1999 were not restored. figure 2. geographic location and territorial division of moldova: regions and districts source: based on gadm data (https://gadm.org/) economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 77 the process of depopulation that affected moldova during the period of independence involved significant regional differences. after the last soviet population census in 1989, moldova carried out two population censuses in 2004 and 2014 without including transnistria. the latter conducted two population censuses independently of moldova in 2004 and 2015. the total population in moldova declined from 4335 thousand in 1989 to 3799 thousand (with transnistria) and 3243 (without transnistria) in 2004. in 2014, moldova’s population decreased to 3297 thousand with transnistria and 2821 without transnistria. according to the last census (without transnistria), in 20 of the 35 administrative units, where 34% of moldova’s population resides, the total population is under 70000. at the same time, 66% of the population lives in administrative units with a total population of over 70000, including the municipality of chisinau which is home to 24% of the population. compared to the 2004 census, the largest decrease was observed in the number of units with a total population of 100000 inhabitants and more (from eight to two). districts in the north have the highest proportion of the older population due to lower fertility rates and longer life expectancy. at the same time, the regions of the centre and the south have a younger population structure. from an economic perspective, there is a huge difference between the municipality of chisinau, with almost 60% of gdp, and the rest of the country (madrm, 2020). very few studies on regional mortality differentiation exist in moldova. in previous studies, a mortality gradient between districts in the north, where life expectancy is higher, and districts in the centre, where life expectancy is lower was found (gagauz and pahomii, 2017). further, the central and southern regions were found more susceptible to higher premature mortality from covid-19 infection compared to the municipality of chisinau and northern districts (pahomii, 2020). data and methods data the de-identified database of individual medical death certificates provided by the national public health agency (npha) was used. the npha has been responsible for the centralised coding of causes of death since 1991 under the 9th revision of the international classification of diseases and causes of death (icd) and since 1998 under the 10th revision of icd. deaths refer to the place of residence of the deceased. since the data were available at the level of localities, it was possible to arrange it according to the current territorial division for three periods: 1991-95, 2002-06 and 2012-16. for the period 1991-95, we had to make two assumptions concerning the two districts that were not restored in 2003. first, deaths registered in the district of cainari were attributed to the district of causeni. second, deaths registered in the district of vulcanesti were attributed to atu gagauzia. the same assumption was made for population counts. mortality data were aggregated based on a shortlist of causes of death presented in table 1. for transnistria, official statistics were available until 1997. data on the total number of deaths by cause were collected from the statistical office of transnistria for the period since 2002. table 1 list of causes of death used in the analysis with corresponding icd-9 and icd-10 codes cause icd-9 icd-10 infectious diseases 001-139 a00-b99 neoplasms 140-239 c00-d48 cardiovascular diseases 390-459 i00-i99 respiratory diseases 460-519 j00-j98 digestive diseases 520-579 k00-k93 external causes 800-999 v01-y98 ill-defined causes, including senility 780-799 r00-r99 other causes 240-389, 580-779 d50-h95, l00-q99 all causes 001-999 a00-y98 notion: ill-defined causes of death were redistributed between other causes of death proportionally or by a special method economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 78 population counts, according to the 2004 and 2014 censuses were used. for the 2014 census, we used the population counts officially adjusted by the national bureau of statistics (nbs) due to incomplete registration. for both years, the population refers to the usually resident population, which excludes the temporary absent population (more than 12 months). for the period 1991-1995, we relied on the official annual estimates for 1993 based on the 1989 census. for transnistria, we used the results of the population census conducted independently in 2004, while for the 2015 census, the data by age were unavailable. the data underwent preliminary treatment prior to analysis due to an increase in mortality from illdefined causes (780-799 under icd-9) in the 1990s. ill-defined deaths were almost entirely represented by the senility item (797 under icd-9), with the share in total mortality ranging from less than 1% in the orhei district to 35% in the soldanesti district. to address the issue of senility mortality growth, we used the same approach as at the national level. in particular, deaths due to senility were attributed to cardiovascular disease for the age group 80 years and older and redistributed proportionally between all causes of death for the age group less than 80 years. for the periods 20022006 and 2012-2016, ill-defined causes of death (r00-r99 under icd-10) made up less than 1% of the total number of deaths and were redistributed proportionally between all causes of death. methods abridged life tables were computed using the methods described by chiang (chiang and world health organization, 1979). to estimate the 95% confidence intervals for life expectancy, we used the silcocks et al. method (silcocks et al., 2001). life tables were produced by sex, district and geographical region. the contribution of mortality by age and cause of death to the difference in life expectancy between the two groups of populations were computed based on the method of decomposition (andreev and shkolnikov, 2012). data were analysed in r using the packages “pheindicatormethods” (life tables, confidence intervals) (anderson et al., 2020) and “demodecomp” (decomposition of changes in life expectancy) (riffe, 2018). thematic maps were produced using the package “tmap” (tennekes, 2018) and shapefiles from the gadm website (https://gadm.org/). the “jenks” optimisation method of classification, which maximises the differences between the categories of observations was used to produce all the thematic maps. results changes in life expectancy table 2 provides life expectancy at birth by geographic regions over three time periods. in the 19911995 period, which refers to the socio-economic crisis, life expectancy was above the national average only in the municipality of chisinau and in the northern region for both sexes. life expectancy was close to the national level for women in transnistria and below for other sex and regional categories. the most unfavourable situation in the early 1990s was found in the central region, where life expectancy was almost 2 years lower than the national average and 4 years lower than in the capital for both sexes. during the stagnation period, in 2002-2006, the situation remained practically unchanged in all regions and the municipality of chisinau. the period 2012-2016 saw some improvements, particularly in the capital, where life expectancy increased by more than 3.0 years for both sexes compared to 2002-06. in other regions, the increase was smaller, amounting to approximately two years for women and one year for men. leaving aside the municipality of chisinau, which undoubtedly holds the leading position, recent progress has been more pronounced in the centre and the south than in the north. the northern region, which had a life expectancy similar to that of the capital in the early-1990s and at the beginning of the millennium, experienced much less ../../../library/containers/com.apple.mail/data/library/containers/com.apple.mail/data/library/family/downloads/tennekes,%202018 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 79 growth, particularly among men. despite the different degrees of the recent amelioration, the differentiation between the leading north and the municipality of chisinau on the one hand and the lagging central and southern regions on the other is still evident. the central region remains the most backward. table 2 life expectancy at birth and its changes by geographic regions, moldova since 1991 geographic region life expectancy changes in life expectancy 1991-1995 2002-2006 2012-2016 1991-1995 / 2002-2006 2002-2006 / 2012-2016 1991-1995 / 2012-2016 males north 64.2±0.4 64.2±0.4 65.0±0.5 0.0 0.8 0.8 centre 61.7±0.4 62.5±0.4 63.7±0.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 south 62.3±0.5 62.8±0.5 64.1±0.6 0.5 1.3 1.8 transnistria 62.3±0.6 61.8±0.6 -0.5 mun. chisinau 65.3±0.5 64.8±0.5 68.6±0.5 -0.5 3.8 3.3 moldova 63.2±0.2 63.2±0.2 65.2±0.2 0.0 2.0 2.0 females north 72.0±0.4 72.6±0.4 74.3±0.4 0.6 1.7 2.3 centre 68.6±0.4 69.3±0.4 71.6±0.4 0.7 2.3 3.0 south 69.6±0.5 70.4±0.5 72.5±0.5 0.8 2.1 2.9 transnistria 71.0±0.5 71.7±0.6 0.7 mun. chisinau 72.7±0.5 73.5±0.5 76.7±0.5 0.8 3.2 4.0 moldova 70.6±0.2 71.4±0.2 73.7±0.2 0.8 2.3 3.1 source: calculations based on npha, nbs and transnistrian statistical office data figures 3 and 4 illustrate the changes in the regional profile of life expectancy at birth in moldova for males and females, respectively. the maps are based on the statistical classes common to the three periods. in this way, one can see how the geography of mortality modified while keeping track of patterns from one period to the next. a considerable transformation over 30 years can be observed. the period of socio-economic crisis in the early 1990s was marked by a distinct differentiation between the northern districts and the municipality of chisinau, on the one hand, and the rest of the country, on the other hand. among males, the two municipalities and the northern districts of riscani and drochia adjacent to the municipality of balti were in the most advantageous position. among females, the health situation in the northern districts of briceni, ocnita and riscani was even better than in the capital. nearly all central and southern districts had low and very low life expectancy. even in the districts directly adjacent to the capital, the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s seriously degraded the population's health. it is especially apparent in the case of the map for females, where the capital of the country is encircled by districts with very low life expectancy values. a decade later, in 2002-2006, the situation began to improve in the north and less so in the south. at the same time, most of the central districts, transnistria (men) and some southern districts continued to face serious health problems. the homogenisation process continued slowly and in the next decade. by 2012-2016, the picture had completely changed. the situation has improved not only in the north and the south, but also in the central districts directly adjacent to the capital, particularly in males (the districts of ialoveni, anenii noi, criuleni). following these transformations, a belt of high-mortality districts was formed by 2012-2016, extending from the soldanesti district in the northeast to the cantemir district in the southwest. these districts identified as the most lagging had a life expectancy at birth in 2012-2016 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 80 corresponding to the 1991-95 national level or lower (63.2 years) in males and under the lower limit of the 2002-2006 national life expectancy in females (71.2 years). for both sexes, the following eleven districts were the most lagging ones: soldanesti, rezina, telenesti, orhei, calarasi, nisporeni, hincesti, leova, cimislia, basarabeasca and cantemir. the last four districts refer to the southern region and are directly adjacent to the central region. figure 3. regional profile of life expectancy at birth in 1991-1995, 2002-2006 and 2012-2016, moldova, males source: calculations based on npha, nbs and transnistrian statistical office data figure 4. regional profile of life expectancy at birth in 1991-1995, 2002-2006 and 2012-2016, moldova, females source: calculations based on npha, nbs and transnistrian statistical office data interregional mortality differentiation the difference in life expectancy at birth between two subgroups of the moldovan population having the highest and lowest life expectancy was decomposed by age and cause over three study periods. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 81 the two population subgroups were represented by the 11 most backward districts and the municipality of chisinau as the leading unit. about 20% of the population resides within each selected group, according to the 2014 census. among men (fig. 5), the gap in life expectancy at birth during the crisis of the early 1990s was -3.4 years. more than 70% of this difference (-2.4 years of -3.4 years) was attributed to higher mortality at the age of 20 to 59 years in the backward districts compared to the capital. the impact of younger and older age groups was less important (-0.7 and -0.3 years, respectively). in terms of causes of death, major men’s losses in the 1990s were attributed to diseases of the respiratory system (-1.0 year), diseases of the digestive system (-0.9 year) and external causes of death (-1.0 year). other diseases, including diseases of the circulatory system, had less impact. diseases of the respiratory system were particularly important for infants, though the negative contribution was perceptible and for adult men. the influence of external mortality was especially significant in young men aged 20-29 years, while mature adult men suffered more from diseases of the digestive system. figure 5. contributions of mortality by age and cause to differences in life expectancy at birth between the most backward districts and the municipality of chisinau over three periods, males source: calculations based on npha, nbs data in the period 2002-2006, the interregional differentiation of mortality between the two male population subgroups decreased (-2.5 years). the negative contribution of infant mortality from respiratory diseases and that of adult mortality from external causes declined. no marked differences were noted in cardiovascular mortality. in the municipality of chisinau, the situation with cardiovascular disease and infections even deteriorated. the positive contribution of cancer mortality in older men was preserved during the stagnation period due to the higher mortality in the capital than in the lagging districts. the third period was marked by a significant increase in interregional disparities in male mortality between the two subgroups. the gap in male life expectancy has doubled (-6.0 years). the main contributors were external causes of death (-1.8 years), diseases of the economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 82 circulatory system (-1.6 o years) and diseases of the digestive system (-1.0 years). this period was characterised by important progress in old-age cardiovascular mortality in the capital and its absence in the lagging subgroup. the gap also started to increase due to the worsening situation with cancer mortality at working age in the lagging subgroup, while in older men the differentiation decreased. among women (fig. 6), the difference in life expectancy at birth between the two analysed population subgroups was greater than among men in the first two periods (-4.2 and -4.4 years, respectively) and the same in the third period (-6.0 years). figure 6. contributions of mortality by age and cause to differences in life expectancy at birth between the most backward districts and the municipality of chisinau over three periods, females source: calculations based on npha, nbs data unlike men, the period of stagnation among women was not characterised by an attenuation of interregional differentiation in mortality. in effect, the decomposition results for the first two periods were virtually identical. another important difference from men was the larger impact of old-age mortality. if among males, the contributions of older age groups became apparent only during the third period, then among females, these age categories played an important role throughout the entire period, with a growing contribution of the last age group 80 years and older. diseases of the circulatory system and diseases of the digestive system played a crucial role in the interregional differentiation of female life expectancy over the whole period of independence. these two health conditions alone were responsible for 75-80% of the life expectancy gap in females. mature adult females from the lagging districts were more susceptible to digestive disorders than their counterparts from the capital. at the same time, the elderly women living in the municipality of chisinau benefited from better cardiovascular mortality control. the widening gap in female life expectancy during the third period was largely explained by the increasing differentiation in cardiovascular mortality. in contrast to males, external causes were of little importance for the health of moldovan females. nevertheless, the negative contribution of this type of mortality increased in the last period (12% of the total difference). women living in the municipality of chisinau had a higher risk of dying from neoplasms in older age groups than women living in the lagging districts. similar to economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 83 males, this differentiation subsided during the third period, but the negative impact of neoplasms in working-age groups became visible. discussion the paper discusses regional changes in life expectancy and causes of death in moldova since independence. the three five-year periods chosen reflect the evolution of life expectancy in moldova following independence that covers the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s, the stagnation of population health during the first decade of the millennium and the recent period of improvements. the geographic diversity of the health of the moldovan population seemed to be established before the country's independence. during the severe crisis of the 1990s, the health conditions of moldovan men and women in the north of the country and the municipalities of chisinau and balti were much better than in the rest of the country. among women, the health situation was even somewhat more favourable in some northern districts than in the municipalities. at the same time, the central and southern regions and transnistria experienced much more health problems. the end of the socioeconomic crisis and the beginning of the new millennium have not substantially improved the health of the moldovan population, including those living in the capital. some positive changes in overall mortality observed during the stagnation period in some districts, especially in the most backward ones, were most likely due to the temporary post-crisis recovery. previous studies have shown that in moldova, the short-term increase in life expectancy that occurred in the late 1990s during the continuing socio-economic crisis was attributed to the population’s adaptation to new social and economic conditions, rather than the beginning of a new sustained positive trend. the recent increase in life expectancy in moldova was largely due to the improvement in the health of the population living in the municipality of chisinau and, to a lesser extent, in certain northern districts among women (briceni, edinet and drochia districts). our findings indicate that progress in life expectancy in most northern districts after independence was fairly modest. here, the situation remained stagnant rather than improving, particularly for men. nevertheless, with better initial positions, the situation in the north was still better than in the south or in the centre. in other districts, except for those falling into the red belt of high mortality, the progress achieved during 30 years of independence has made it possible to exceed the national average 1991-1995 or to get closer to the national average 2014-2016. finally, in the most backward eleven districts, there has been no progress in life expectancy. here, the health of the population remained at the same level as during the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s, if not worse. the breakdown of the difference in life expectancy at birth between the municipality of chisinau and the most backward districts revealed the three key causes of death that account for interregional differentiation of mortality: diseases of the circulatory system, diseases of the digestive system and the group of external causes in males. the same causes of death were responsible for the long-term negative trend in life expectancy in moldova since the mid-1960s and its growing gap with western countries. the municipality of chisinau has made significant progress in life expectancy over the last decade, primarily by improving cardiovascular mortality control among the elderly. this progress was more evident in females compared to males. in a few northern districts (in particular, drochia, briceni districts) and the municipality of balti, the advances in cardiovascular mortality over the period of independence were also marked. unfortunately, there has been much less progress in other districts, where standardised cardiovascular mortality rates after deteriorating in 2002-2006 have merely returned to the 1991-1995 baseline. it is important to remember that in the early 1990s, the peak in cardiovascular mortality caused by a devastating socio-economic crisis was especially high in the country. surely these changes cannot be viewed as genuine improvements leading to a stable increase in life expectancy growth at the national level. regional variations in cardiovascular mortality over the past 30 years indicate enormous inequalities in population health between the capital and the rest of the country. consequently, recent gains in life expectancy at the national level were more than modest, while the cardiovascular revolution did not reach moldova. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 84 diseases of the digestive system were the second cause of death playing a key role in interregional mortality differentiation. the impact of this pathology mostly represented by cirrhosis of the liver was found highly important both in males and females, the middle-aged being the most affected age group. earlier studies have indicated that the growth of mortality from liver cirrhosis was exceptionally rapid in moldova in the 1970s and did not cease until the gorbachev anti-alcohol campaign. the subsequent trend was upward or stagnant, followed by a recent moderate improvement for women. furthermore, the male-female ratio of mortality from liver cirrhosis was found to be close to one, especially in the 1980s and 1990s, indicating indirectly the influence of the same determinant factor on both genders. the unfavourable evolution of mortality from liver cirrhosis in moldova is closely linked to hazardous alcohol consumption. according to the who global status report on alcohol (who, 2018), moldova was among the most consuming countries with 15.1 litres of total alcohol consumed per adult aged 15 years and older in 2016. moldova is much closer to the wine-drinking culture, also known as the “wet” or mediterranean culture, characterised by a high per capita alcohol consumption, lower rates of drunkenness and high levels of chronic consequences of alcohol use such as liver cirrhosis (room and mäkelä, 2000; landberg, 2010). in moldova, homemade wine consumption dominates the total unrecorded consumption (about 80% for both sexes) and represents about 30% of the total alcohol consumed (who, 2014). our results show that external causes of death have contributed to regional differentiation of all-cause mortality mostly for men and far less for women. the improvements in the municipality of chisinau, combined with the worsening situation in the most backward districts, increase the interregional differentiation of this type of mortality and slow down the progress at the national level. morbidity and mortality from injuries are primarily associated with the “dry” or nordic type of drinking culture that is characteristic of many european countries of the former soviet union, such as ukraine or russia, where strong alcoholic beverages are traditionally consumed (levchuk, 2009). the consequences of acute alcoholism, such as external causes of death, are often related to this type of drinking pattern (rehm et al., 2003). mortality from neoplasms did not have a sizable impact on interregional variations in life expectancy. in comparison with the most backward districts, this type of mortality, particularly among the elderly, was higher in the municipality of chisinau, which forwarded much further along the path of the epidemiologic transition. the increasing negative contributions of neoplasm mortality in middle-aged groups indicate the worsening status of cancer mortality in the most affected districts. this contrasts with a declining positive contribution from cancer mortality at an older age, which reflects advances in cancer treatment in the capital. the continuation of these divergent trends will accelerate interregional mortality differentiation in the future. conclusions the main groups of causes of death that account for the long-term negative trend in life expectancy in moldova are also responsible for its interregional variations. these groups include diseases of the circulatory system, diseases of the digestive system and external causes for men. there is a mortality gradient between the northern districts and the municipality of chisinau in which life expectancy is higher and the central districts in which life expectancy is lower. the pace of progress differs from one district to another, with the fastest in the country’s capital and the lack of progress in the 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(2007). вопросы изучения смертности и здоровья населения малых территорий [issues of studying mortality and health of the population of small territories]. в: м. б. денисенко, & г. ш. бахметовой (ред.), смертность населения тенденции, методы изучения, прогнозы. москва: макс пресс, pp. 1-26. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 58 tendencies of mortality and life expectancy in ukraine before the russian full scale military invasion doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-06 iryna kurylo, dr. sc. (economics), professor ptoukha institute for demography and social studies of the nas of ukraine charles university, faculty of science department of demography and geodemography https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1379-1756 e-mail: iryna.kurilo2017@gmail.com received 1 may 2022 accepted for publication 27 may 2022 mailto:iryna.kurilo2017@gmail.com economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 59 abstract the ambivalence of mortality and life expectancy dynamics in ukraine is a significant and complex demographic problem. our aim is to examine the last tendencies of mortality and life expectancy, analyse the level and dynamics of mortality by major causes of death before the russian military invasion of ukraine. this analysis constitutes a base for the further comparative estimation of demographic losses due to the war. trends of sexand age-specific mortality are considered. specific characteristics of mortality in urban and rural settlements are analysed. we use the following methods: demographic rates, standardized death rates (european standard population), life tables, decomposition method, descriptive statistics, graphic method. our findings suggest that following a period of growth in life expectancy (2009-2013) a period of fluctuation and stagnation (2014-2019) has started in ukraine under the influence of political-military and economic factors. beginning with 2020, life expectancy was additionally influenced by covid-19. non-communicable diseases are among significant contributors to premature adult mortality in ukraine. however, the excessive share of deaths (especially among men) is also related to external causes. the dynamics of mortality from cardiovascular diseases show a general trend of decline over the past fifteen years, however with fluctuations in the latest years. a deterioration has already taken place in 2020. there is a slight decrease in cancer mortality over the past fifteen years. the reduction in death rate from external causes in ukraine over this period was significant. the standardized death rate from digestive diseases has increased with covid-19 having played a leading role in the unfavourable changes of life expectancy over the past two years. keywords: life expectancy, premature mortality, standardized death rate, major groups of causes of death, cardiovascular disease, cancer, external causes of death abstract ambiguitatea dinamicii mortalității și speranței de viață în ucraina este una dintre cele mai semnificative și complexe probleme demografice ale țării. scopul nostru este de a studia cele mai recente tendințe în ceea ce privește mortalitatea și speranța de viață, de a analiza nivelul și dinamica mortalității în contextul principalelor cauze de deces înainte de invazia militară a rusiei în ucraina. o astfel de analiză va constitui baza pentru evaluarea comparativă ulterioară a pierderilor demografice ca urmare a războiului. în lucrare au fost analizate tendințele mortalității pe vârste și sexe, caracteristicile mortalității în zonele urbane și rurale. au fost utilizate următoarele metode și date: indicatori demografici, rate standardizate de mortalitate (conform standardului european), tabele de mortalitate, metoda de decompoziție, statistica descriptivă, metoda grafică. rezultatele obținute denotă că în ucraina, după o perioadă de creștere certă a speranței de viață (2009-2013), a început o perioadă de creștere lentă a acesteia, urmată de fluctuații și stagnare (2014-2019) determinată de factori militaro-politici și economici. începând din 2020, speranța de viață a fost afectată într-o măsură și mai mare de covid-19. cea mai semnificativă ”contribuție” la mortalitatea prematură a populației adulte din ucraina o au bolile cronice netransmisibile. dar proporția excesivă a deceselor (în special în rândul bărbaților) este asociată și cu cauze externe. dinamica mortalității din cauza afecțiunilor cardiovasculare arată, în general, o diminuare a acesteia în ultimii cincisprezece ani, dar cu fluctuații în ultimii ani. o agravare evidentă a situației a avut loc în 2020. în ultimii cincisprezece ani se observă, de asemenea, o scădere ușoară a mortalității din cauza cancerului. scăderea mortalității din cauze externe în ucraina în această perioadă a fost semnificativă. rata standardizată a mortalității cauzată de boli ale tractului digestiv a crescut în această perioadă. covid-19 a jucat un rol esențial în schimbările negative în ce privește speranța de viață în ultimii doi ani. cuvinte cheie: speranța de viață, mortalitate prematură, rata standardizată a mortalității, principalele grupe de cauze de deces, boli cardiovasculare, boli oncologice, cauze externe de deces. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 60 неоднозначность динамики смертности и продолжительности жизни– одна из наиболее значимых и сложных демографических проблем украины. наша цель изучить последние тенденции смертности и продолжительности жизни, проанализировать уровень и динамику смертности по основным причинам смерти до военного вторжения россии в украину. такой анализ станет основой для дальнейшей сравнительной оценки демографических потерь в результате войны. в работе рассмотрены тенденции возрастно-половой смертности. анализируются особенности смертности в городских и сельских населенных пунктах. были использованы следующие методы: демографические показатели, стандартизированные коэффициенты смертности (по европейскому стандарту), таблицы смертности, метод декомпозиции, описательная статистика, графический метод. полученные результаты свидетельствуют о том, что в украине, после периода безусловного роста продолжительности жизни (2009-2013 гг.), под влиянием военно-политических и экономических факторов, начался период медленного ее увеличения, с последующими колебаниями и стагнацией (2014-2019 гг.). начиная с 2020 года на продолжительность жизни дополнительное влияние оказал covid-19. наиболее «значительный вклад» в преждевременную смертность взрослого населения в украине вносят хронические неинфекционные заболевания. однако, чрезмерная доля смертей (особенно среди мужчин) связана и с внешними причинами. динамика смертности от сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний показывает в целом ее снижение за последние пятнадцать лет, но с колебаниями в последние годы. явное ухудшение произошло в 2020 году. за последние пятнадцать лет наблюдается также небольшое снижение смертности от рака. уменьшение смертности по внешним причинам в украине за этот период было значительным. стандартизированный коэффициент смертности от болезней органов пищеварения за этот период увеличился. в свою очередь, ведущую роль в неблагоприятных изменениях продолжительности жизни за последние два года сыграл covid-19. ключевые слова: ожидаемая продолжительность жизни, преждевременная смертность, стандартизованный коэффициент смертности, основные группы причин смерти, сердечнососудистые заболевания, онкологические заболевания, внешние причины смерти. jel classification: j11, i10 udc: 314.4 introduction the medical and demographic processes in ukraine have been developing in a rather complex and contradictory manner for a long time. the life expectancy in the country has not seen a sufficiently steady positive dynamics for more than half a century. beginning in 1970-s, ukraine began to lose its position among the countries with the highest life expectancy and has later lagged significantly behind. at the mentioned period of time, the task of combating main communicable diseases gave way to the importance of medical-social challenges associated with the spread of chronic non-communicable diseases. at the same time the past two years have seen a renewed importance of infections as a cause of death due to the covid-19 pandemic. there were periods of declining mortality between the turn of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in ukraine. but the positive dynamics turned out unstable. therefore, in general the topic of the life expectancy dynamic and mortality by the main causes of death is believed to be one of the most important in demographic context of ukraine during the last decades. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 61 among other things it’s really important to examine the situation of mortality and life expectancy in ukraine before russian military invasion of the country, since it’s a base for further assessment of the war’s demographic consequences. the aim of our study is to examine the tendencies of mortality and life expectancy in ukraine over the last twenty years, analyze the dynamics and structure of mortality by the major causes of death. life expectancy and mortality by major groups of causes are considered in a comparative context in the paper – in relationship with european union and the countries of the who european region. the research question of our study is whether the progress in life expectancy observed in ukraine before the military invasion marked the reversal of adverse long-term mortality trends. we also investigated what sex-ageand cause-specific components of mortality contributed to this improvement. literature review ukrainian and foreign scientists have always seen mortality and life expectancy in ukraine and other countries of eastern europe as a relevant and promising research topic. traditionally the focus has always been on long-time retrospective tendencies in life expectancy, sex-, ageand cause-specific mortality (mckee and shkolnikov, 2001; meslé,_2004; meslé and vallin, 2012) and their differences between countries (shkolnikov et al., 2010; aburto and raalte, 2018). part of the studies available deal with excess mortality, concerned with the periods of social disasters in ukraine (vallin et al., 2012), including calculations of demographic losses (rudnytskyi et al., 2015). several studies (for instance shkolnikov et al., 2001; levchuk and luschik, 2019) are devoted to inequalities in mortality and length of life. there has been growing interest in premature and preventable mortality. these have been widely investigated by ukrainian scientists (e. libanova et al., 2007; ryngach, 2016). some attempts have been made with the purpose to compare the features of mortality and changes in life expectancy in the regions of ukraine (ryngach and luschik, 2018) and in the largest cities of the country (shevchuk, 2019; levchuk and shevchuk, 2021). many studies have already appeared on excess mortality due to covid-19 in the european countries (for instance penina, 2021; islam et al., 2021; konstantinoudis et al., 2022). the methodological approaches to the estimation the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 on mortality and some results of excess mortality studies are presented in these papers. data sources and methods used the information sources of the analysis are: demographic data of state statistics service of ukraine (by sex, age groups, types of settlement etc.); statistical information from the eurostat database; data from european health for all database. information of the state statistical service of ukraine about the number of deaths for 2014 –2020 have been provided excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the autonomous republic of crimea and the city of sevastopol and part of the temporarily occupied territories in the donetsk and luhansk regions. due to lack of information about part of the temporarily occupied territories in the donetsk and luhansk regions, it is incorrect to make calculations of relative indicators of population reproduction, death rates etc. for the donetsk and luhansk regions. the relative indicators of death rates across ukraine for 2015–2020 have been compiled excluding the relevant data for the donetsk and luhansk region (population of ukraine, 2021). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 62 in this paper mortality and life expectancy in ukraine are examined through the following demographic and statistical measures and methods: calculation and analysis of demographic rates, standardized death rates (european standard population), life tables, the decomposition method (andreev and shkolnikov, 2012), descriptive statistics, the graphic method. the results of research and discussions during the first decade of ukraine’s independence, unfavourable mortality trends led to an especially sharp drop in life expectancy (figure 1). a further exit from this unfavorable trend was long and not consistent enough. figure 1. life expectancy at birth in 1991-2020, ukraine, by sex (years) source: calculations based on data of state statistics service of ukraine. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ periods of declining mortality between the turn of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in ukraine were short. stagnant tendencies prevailed in the dynamics of life expectancy. only at the end of the first decade of the xxi century the increase in life expectancy acquired a stable and dynamic character, however, it was not continuous. the beginning of the military conflict with russia in eastern ukraine (in 2014) and the associated loss of civilians and military, forced displacement of the population from the relevant territories, and general political and socio-economic instability hindered further favorable changes in life expectancy. in 2020, the covid-19 pandemic also influenced life expectancy. the period from 2014 to early 2020 can be described as a period of instability and fluctuations with the predominant influence of political and economic factors. starting http://www/ economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 63 from 2020, life expectancy was additionally influenced by uncertainty in the epidemic situation and the unpreparedness of the healthcare system to respond to covid-19. in general, over the last thirty years, the life expectancy of women in ukraine has increased only by 2.8 years, while in men – by 2.3 years. the gender gap in life expectancy is still equal to 10 years and is much more significant than the gap in life expectancy between rural and urban areas, which equals 2 years “in favour” of urban residents. ukraine has lagged far behind the eu countries in terms of life expectancy (figure 2). compared to eu citizens, ukrainian women live an average of 6 years, while men live 11 years less. figure 2. life expectancy at birth in ukraine and in the european union, 1991-2019, both sexes, (years) sources: eurostat database https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database the main reason for such differences is the high premature mortality: for instance, in ukraine the premature mortality rate over three times higher than that of sweden. significant contributions to premature adult mortality are made by major non-communicable diseases (ncds): cardiovascular disease, cancer, etc. (table 1). at the same time, in ukraine the excessive share of deaths (especially among men) is related to external causes (and not only in the young groups of adults). all these causes affect premature mortality in general. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 64 table 1. leading causes of death in women and men aged 15 years and over, ukraine, 2019. rank place women men 15-29 years 30-64 years 65 years and over 15-29 years 30-64 years 65 years and over і external causes of death cardiovascular diseases external causes of death cardiovascular diseases іі cancers cardiovascular diseases cancers ііі cardio-vascular diseases gastrointestinal diseases symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings1 gastrointestinal diseases external causes of death symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings2 iv some infectious and parasitic diseases external causes of death gastrointestinal diseases cancers gastrointestinal diseases external causes of death v gastrointestinal diseases some infectious and parasitic diseases external causes of death some infectious and parasitic diseases respiratory diseases source: developed based on state statistics service data regarding the latest dynamics in life expectancy, both during the period of its unconditional growth (2009-2013) and the last years of slow increase and stagnation (2014-2019), the most important factor of women’ life expectancy dynamics was the decrease in mortality from cardiovascular diseases, and for men — the decrease in mortality from external causes. over the past period (2014-2019), the overall increase in female life expectancy has appeared to be more than three times lower than in the previous five-year study period. meanwhile an increase in the contribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, as well as from external causes in the dynamics of female life expectancy was observed. the increase in male life expectancy during this period was almost six times less than in the previous five years. there was an increase in the contribution of mortality from external causes, cancers and communicable diseases in the dynamics of male life expectancy. at the same time, changes in cardiovascular mortality have already been unfavourable, therefore they (and, to a lesser extent, the dynamics of respiratory mortality) counteracted an increase in the male life expectancy in recent years. in 2020, compared to the previous year, life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.5 years for men and 0.8 years for women, mostly through mortality from covid-19. the component analysis of life expectancy dynamics in 2020, compared to 2019, shows that the contribution of mortality from covid-19 in reducing life expectancy for both men and women was approximately the same in absolute terms (0.49 years). the increase in mortality from diseases of the circulatory system also had negative impact on the dynamics of life expectancy, and for men the reduction in life expectancy as a result was even slightly 1 this class usually comprises insufficiently defined conditions, symptoms and results of clinical (or other research procedures) that do not comply with the norm, but for which a specific diagnosis has not been established. the significant role (share) of this group death causes (even at an older age) may be an evidence of problems with data quality, especially since in ukraine the corresponding share of deaths has increased over the last few decades [3, p.51]. 2 men in ukraine are characterized by a higher proportion of unspecified and unknown causes of death within this class, compared to women (they are dominated by "old age"). this may indirectly indicate lower accuracy in determining the cause of death and lower quality of mortality data namely for men [3, p.54]. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 65 greater than for women. the dynamics of mortality from respiratory diseases and its impact on life expectancy (especially for women) was also unfavorable. at the same time, mortality from external causes decreased in 2020 (which is due to the impact of quarantine restrictions, in particular, on population mobility, the frequency of informal communication, etc.), and this reduction was more significant in men. mortality from diseases of the circulatory system in ukraine (according to its standardized rate) is on average 1.8 times higher than its level in the european union and twice higher than this rate for the who european region. the above ratios reflect both the really high frequency of deaths from diseases of the circulatory system in ukraine (compared to other classes of non-communicable diseases, as well as against other european countries), and partly the phenomenon of “overdiagnosis” of cardiovascular diseases (cvd), especially in the elderly and the oldest groups of the population. according to recent years, cvd deaths in the country account for more than 80% of all deaths of people aged 70 and older, which may be due in part to the prevalence of routine determination of the cause of death of elderly people (“coronary heart disease; atherosclerotic cardiosclerosis”) and a small proportion of cases of postmortem diagnosis as a result of autopsy (ryngach, 2013). it should be noted that this causes an underestimation of other age-related pathologies (such as neoplasms, etc.) and somewhat distorts the overall picture of mortality by cause in ukraine. as a significant structural factor in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease and mortality is the level of demographic aging, the overall mortality rates of women (who are demographically older) due to diseases of the circulatory system are higher than men, although standardized sex rates show the opposite ratio (table 2). table 2. mortality from diseases of the circulatory system in ukraine, 2005-2019, by sex (per 100 thousand people) years total death rate standardized death rate (according to the european standard) women men women men 2005 1070.3 999.6 656.3 1093.8 2006 1065.3 983.6 637.4 1056.9 2007 1063.6 998.1 622.7 1052.6 2008 1071.6 998.6 614.1 1038.2 2009 1052.9 938.6 589.8 970.0 2010 1079.5 937.4 590.7 956.7 2011 1027.1 889.2 549.4 890.0 2012 1017.9 886.7 532.6 873.3 2013 1030.4 895.7 531.0 873.8 2014 1049.9 920.0 534.6 888.6 2015 1068.8 941.2 549.8 930.0 2016 1052.6 927.8 536.6 908.3 2017 1034.1 913.3 521.4 884.1 2018 1048.0 937.6 526.4 899.6 2019 1034.5 937.1 517.6 891.8 2020 1088.1 1010.8 541.0 955.7 source: data of the state statistics service of ukraine. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 66 the total cvd mortality rate in rural ukraine in recent years is 40% higher than in urban areas. the age-standardized rate is also higher but less than 10%, because the effect of higher aging of the rural population is eliminated. the dynamics of mortality from cardiovascular diseases shows a general decrease in its level over the past fifteen years. but positive trends were inconsistent, in recent years there have been fluctuations in the dynamics of mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, especially among men. there were clearly unfavourable changes in the mortality rate caused by diseases of the circulatory system for both women and men in ukraine in 2020, which was already an epidemic year. in women aged 30 to 70 years, the dynamics of mortality from cardiovascular diseases looks more favourable than in older age: the level of female premature mortality from these diseases decreased in 2019 compared to 2010 – by more than 17%, and in comparison to 2001 – by more than a third, but in recent years this decrease has not been stable. reduction in male mortality by age from 30 to 70 years from diseases of the circulatory system in 2010 was very “modest” (6% in comparison to 2010) and just as volatile in recent years, the current male premature mortality rate from cvd exceeding not only its level in 2001 but also that of 1991. among the cardiovascular diseases that cause death, including premature death, the leading role is played by coronary heart disease (chd). it currently accounts for about 7 out of 10 deaths from causes of this class and almost 2/3 of cvd deaths between the ages of 30 and 70. every fifth case of death (including premature deaths from cvd) in ukraine is caused by cerebrovascular diseases. the reduction in premature mortality at the age of 30-69 from cerebrovascular diseases in ukraine in general from 2010 to 2019 has been much more significant (on average by 19%) than due to coronary heart disease (less than 9%). of particular concern is the absence of positive changes in the dynamics of coronary heart disease mortality in the age group of young men (15 -19 and 20-24 years) in this decade. in general, the mortality rate of women from both car diovascular diseases during this period decreased more significant than that of men. in the last few years, there has been no resistant decline in mortality caused by both reasons. the deterioration of the situation has already been in place in 2020. thus , according to the values of standardized mortality rates due to coronary heart disease, its level over the past year has increased by slightly more than 6% for women and by more than 8% for men; the corresponding growth rates for cerebrovascular diseases in 2020 were 1.3% and 6.7%, respectively. diseases of the circulatory system not only predominate in the structure of causes of death of the adult population of ukraine, but also are among the leading causes of disability, as well as the incidence and prevalence of diseases. neoplasms are the second most common class of causes of death. a comparative analysis of standardized rates of premature cancer mortality in ukraine and the eu, as well as relevant indicators for the population aged 65 and over shows that mortality from cancer in people under 65 in ukraine is slightly higher than in the eu and much higher than in the who european region, however, in relation to older age groups, the ratio is opposite, and not least – because of the underestimation of cancer as a cause of death in old age3. the total mortality rates of men from oncological pathology exceed those of women on average one and a half times; more correct standardized rates show twice the frequency of men’s deaths. the frequency of deaths of women from neoplasms in urban areas of ukraine is on average 18-20% 3 in addition, later detection of cancer, worse survival rates of cancer patients at a relatively young age who thus do not live to old age also plays a role. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 67 higher than in rural areas, while the indicators for men do not have a pronounced inter-settlement differentiation. the dynamics of standardized cancer death rates show a slight decrease in the mortality rate for this class of diseases in general over the past fifteen years (figure 3) in the presence of small fluctuations in the studied indicators within this period (especially for men). figure 3. standardized death rates from neoplasms in ukraine in 2005-2019, by sex (per 100 thousand people) source: data of the state statistics service of ukraine the main cancer type in terms of mortality in women in ukraine is breast cancer (every fifth case of cancer related female death), while in men these are cancer of the trachea, bronchi and lungs which currently account for 2 out of each 9 deaths caused by neoplasms. the following places among the localizations of cancer as a cause of death in ukraine are currently occupied by: malignant neoplasms of the colon; of stomach; of trachea, bronchi and lungs – in women; malignant neoplasms of the prostate; of stomach; of colon – in men. external causes of death. significant contributions to premature adult mortality in ukraine are made by external causes. standardized death rates from external causes are significantly higher than in the eu: almost 2,5 times for men and almost 1.2 times for women. mortality of men from external causes (which is preventable) in ukraine is far above the level for women (figure 4). the highest mortality excess of men over women is observed in suicides (5.7 times in 2020) and accidental poisonings (5.6 times). the reduction in death rate from external causes in ukraine during 2005-2020 was as significant for men (by more than 1.9 times) as it was for women (by almost 1.9 times). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 68 figure 4. standardized death rates from external causes of death in ukraine in 2005-2020, by sex (per 100 thousand people) source: data of the state statistics service of ukraine among the external causes of death, the leading roles are played by suicides, homicides (manslaughters and murders), accidental poisonings (for men) and traffic accidents. the standardized death rate from external causes in rural areas of ukraine is higher than in urban settlements (in 2020 81.8 per 100 thousand people and 60.6 respectively). the biggest differences are in causes such as accidental falling, suicide, accidental drowning. chronic diseases of the digestive system are the class of pathologies from which an increasing number of people around the world suffer. digestive diseases in ukraine in recent decades have risen up in the hierarchy of causes of death, occupying the fourth place after cardiovascular disease, neoplasms and external causes. in general, the standardized death rate from digestive diseases in the country increased from 32.9 deaths per 100 thousand people in 1991 to 42.9 – in 2001, 48.0 – in 2011, 51.3 – in 2019 and 51.4 – in 2020. chronic respiratory diseases represent chronic inflammatory diseases affecting the respiratory tract. serious respiratory disorders often cause disability and even death, so the contribution of respiratory diseases to the global burden of disease is quite significant. chronic bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and other chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract are perhaps the most dangerous non-communicable respiratory diseases. the total share of deaths caused by these diseases among all deaths from respiratory diseases in ukraine in last years was 40%. standardized death rates (including premature) from bronchitis, asthma and pulmonary emphysema in ukraine are higher than in the eu, especially for men. mortality of men from all these diseases in ukraine is many times higher than that of women (this excess is more significant compared to that in the eu and the countries of the who european region). the death rate from chronic respiratory diseases in rural areas of ukraine is much higher than in urban settlements. mortality from these diseases in ukraine registered a decline in the 2005-2019 period. in 2020-2021 covid-19 became one of the significant causes of death. as of 2020, it accounted for almost 3.8% of male deaths and more than 3.1% of all female deaths in ukraine. covid-19 has played a leading role in the negative changes in life expectancy over the last two years. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 69 the estimation of excess mortality due to covid-19 or demographic losses caused by the epidemic falls outside the score of this paper. however, a general idea of the impact of the covid-19 epidemic waves on the overall mortality of ukraine in the last two years (before the large-scale russian invasion) gives a comparison of monthly deaths during the epidemic with at least two previous years (2018-2019) (figure 5). figure 5. monthly numbers of deaths in ukraine, 2018-2021 period source: data of the state statistics service of ukraine. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ thus, the maximum monthly deaths in these years late autumn and early winter 2020, as well as in mid-spring and especially in late autumn 2021 coincide with the peaks of the corresponding waves of the covid-19 pandemic in ukraine. conclusions this paper examines the last twenty-years' tendencies of mortality and life expectancy in ukraine and attempts to form a basis for further estimation of excess mortality due to the russian-ukrainian war, in particular after the full-scale russian invasion of ukraine in 2022. at the end of the first decade of the xxi century, the increase in life expectancy in ukraine became stable and dynamic. the period between 2009 and 2013 was characterized by the growth of life expectancy, while the subsequent period of 2014-2019 by slow increase and stagnation. in both periods the most important factors for the dynamics of women’ life expectancy were the decrease in mortality from cardiovascular diseases, and for men — the decrease in mortality from external causes. the dynamics of mortality from a number of causes of death (neoplasms, external causes, diseases of the circulatory system, respiratory diseases) over the period of 2005-2019 was rather favourable in ukraine. at the same time, for instance, mortality from digestive diseases increased. the gender gap in life expectancy in ukraine still equals almost 10 years and is much more significant than the gap in the life expectancy of urban and rural residents respectively (2 years). http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 70 ukraine has lagged far behind the european union countries in life expectancy (women live an average of 6 years and men 11 years less than in the eu). the standardized death rate from diseases of the circulatory system in ukraine is on average 1.8 times higher than in the eu, corresponding death rate due to external causes – almost 2 times higher, from neoplasms is slightly higher than in the eu. in the last couple of years, the stagnation of life expectancy in ukraine resumed. in 2020, compared to the previous year, life expectancy at birth decreased mostly due to covid-19, its contribution to reduction of life expectancy for both men and women being the same in absolute terms (almost 0.5 years). the increase in mortality from diseases of the circulatory system also had a negative impact on the dynamics of life expectancy (larger effect – for men). the dynamics of mortality from respiratory diseases and its impact on life expectancy (especially for women) were also adverse in 2020. but dynamics of mortality from external causes of death were rather favourable. recent developments, caused by the russian full-scale invasion, have led to numerous casualties (including civilians) yet. the diverse medical and demographic consequences of ongoing russian aggression are expected. not only the direct combat losses and civilian casualties are among them, but also additional deaths due to physical injuries and psychological traumas, lack of medicines for patients with infectious and chronic non-communicable conditions, limited access to urgent emergency medical care and other health services in ukraine. unfortunately, their impact on the country's population health and reproduction is likely to be long-term after this war. acknowledgements the author is grateful to armed forces of ukraine for their service and sacrifice. they are ensuring the security for the entire europe. references aburto, j. m., & van raalte, a. 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http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2013/0539/analit01.php https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2018.03.039 https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2019.03.073 https://www.hse.ru/en/org/persons/201159175 https://www.hse.ru/en/org/persons/4427228 https://publications.hse.ru/view/206987766 https://publications.hse.ru/view/206987766 https://www.jstor.org/stable/40784329 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29788701 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2433-4_3 1 economy and sociology intercultural profile of managers in the republic of moldova in the context of the trompenaars and hampdenturner theory of cultural dimensions angela pirlog,1 university lecturer, researcher, academy of economic studies of moldova doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.2-06 jel classification: m14, z13 udc: 005.732(478) abstract this paper is focuses on the intercultural side in the management of enterprises in the republic of moldova. it aims to identify and analyse the cultural characteristics of managers with business experience in enterprises in various branches of the republic of moldova economy and students enrolled in economic studies, potential future managers. the survey conducted in 2020 and 2021 was based on the culture model of trompenaars and hampden-turner that includes seven dimensions: universalism versus particularism, individualism versus communitarianism, neutral versus affective, specific versus diffuse, achievement versus ascription, sequential versus synchronous time, inward direction versus outward direction. the main purpose of the study is to establish the ”national profile" of the republic of moldova, which was developed based on information collected from two segments of respondents: managers and students pursuing economic studies. the results of the study showed that the "national profile" of the republic of moldova is characterized by particularism, individualism, neutrality with interconnected personal relationships, with the assignment of status in accordance with personal achievements, consistent temporal orientation and internal control of the environment. in turn, the knowledge of national characteristics can also determine the influence of intercultural management of moldovan enterprises. based on the identified cultural characteristics, the basic principles of management (behavioural and relational) were determined, contributing to the reduction of cultural differences both in moldovan business at national and international level for foreign enterprises in the republic of moldova. to increase the effectiveness of intercultural interaction, the study of the cultural environment from the point of view of the identified parameters will contribute to the selection of the most efficient management methods. keywords: cultural dimension, national culture, republic of moldova, manager, trompenaars and hampden-turner, management, cultural profile. prezenta lucrare vizează latura interculturală în managementul întreprinderilor din republica moldova. ea are drept scop identificarea și analiza caracteristicilor culturale ale managerilor cu experiență în afaceri în cadrul întreprinderilor din diferite ramuri ale economiei republicii moldova și ale studenților înmatriculați, la studii economice, potențiali viitori manageri. sondajul realizat în 2020 și 2021, s-a bazat pe modelul culturii a lui trompenaars și hampdenturner care include șapte dimensiuni: universalism versus particularism, individualism versus comunitarism, neutru versus afectiv, specific versus difuz, realizare versus atribuire, timp secvențial versus timp sincron, direcție internă versus direcție externă. scopul principal al studiului este de a stabili „profilul” național din republica moldova, care a fost elaborat în baza informațiilor colectate la două segmente de respondenți: manageri și studenți ce urmează studii economice. rezultatele studiului au arătat că „profilul național” al republicii moldova se caracterizează prin particularism, individualism, neutralitate cu relații personale interconectate, cu atribuirea 1 angela pirlog, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1137-1555 e-mail: angela.pirlog@yahoo.com . https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1137-1555 mailto:angela.pirlog@yahoo.com 2 theoretical and scientifical journal statutului în conformitate cu realizările personale, orientare temporală consecventă și control intern al mediului. la rândul său, cunoașterea caracteristicilor naționale poate determina și influența managementul intercultural al întreprinderilor moldovenești. pe baza caracteristicilor culturale identificate, au fost determinate principiile de bază ale managementului (comportamental și relațional), contribuind la reducerea diferențelor culturale atât în cadrul afacerilor moldovenești la nivel național, cât și internațional pentru întreprinderile străine din republica moldova. pentru a crește eficacitatea interacțiunii interculturale, studiul mediului cultural din punctul de vedere al parametrilor identificați va contribui la selectarea celor mai eficiente metode de management. cuvinte cheie: dimensiune culturală, cultură națională, republica moldova, manager, trompenaars și hampden-turner, management, profil cultural. данная работа фокусируется на межкультурной стороне управления предприятиями в республике молдова. она направлена на выявление и анализ культурных характеристик менеджеров с опытом ведения бизнеса на предприятиях в различных отраслях экономики республики молдова и студентов экономических факультетов потенциальных менеджеров. опрос, проведенный в 2020 и 2021 годах, был основан на культурной модели фонса тромпенаарса и ч. хэмпден-тернера, которая включает семь измерений: универсализм против партикуляризма, индивидуализм против коммунитаризма, нейтральный против аффективного, конкретный против диффузного, достижения против атрибуции, последовательное время против синхронное время, внутреннее направление по сравнению с внешним направлением. основная цель исследования установить «национальный профиль» в республике молдова, который был разработан на основе информации, полученной от двух сегментов респондентов: менеджеров и студентов, изучающих экономику. результаты исследования показали, что «национальный профиль» республики молдова характеризуют партикуляризм, индивидуализм, нейтральность с взаимосвязанными личными отношениями, с присвоением статуса в соответствии с личными достижениями, последовательной временной ориентацией и внутреннем контролем окружающей среды. в свою очередь, знание национальных особенностей может определять и влиять на межкультурный менеджмент молдавских предприятий. на основе выявленных культурных характеристик были определены базовые принципы управления (поведенческие и реляционные), способствующие сокращению культурных различий как внутри молдавского бизнеса на национальном уровне, так и международном для иностранных предприятий в республике молдова. для повышения эффективности межкультурного взаимодействия, изучение культурной среды с точки зрения выявленных параметров, будет способствовать выбору наиболее эффективных методов управления. ключевые слова: культурное измерение, национальная культура, республика молдова, менеджер, тромпенаарс и хэмпден-тернер, менеджмент, культурный профиль. introduction nowadays we are all witnesses of a high level of international interaction of people, societies, and countries. the cultural metamorphoses in the republic of moldova are very intense, without historical precedent, both due to the general trend of globalization (foreign trade, investments, etc.), the transition to another economic-political system, and mass emigration. people assimilate new knowledge, new ways of approaching problems, new values, attitudes and skills. the modern world is much more complex than we may think. modern technologies, especially in this period of covid-19 pandemic, offer companies possibilities to interact virtually across borders and most businesses, either multinational, middle-sized or small, connect with their clients, partners and suppliers coming from abroad using off-line or on-line approaches. (emails, messages, projects, conferences, meetings etc). both approaches need to use intercultural management as tool of successful interaction (huang, 2020). 3 economy and sociology the topics describing the influence of national culture on business and management are increasingly analysed in international scientific papers by researchers all over the world (jacob, 2005; taras et al., 2009). they help develop our understanding of the interaction between culture and management through different paradigms at different levels: international, national, organizational, interpersonal and individual (romani et al., 2018). in the republic of moldova, the importance of studying the peculiarities of national culture is still poorly realized at the societal level, on one hand, and at the management level of enterprises, on the other hand. there is a limited number of researches identifying the specifics of the national culture carried out within the moldovan economic entities. the „cultural profile” in the republic of moldova containing a set of specific characteristics called “cultural dimensions” that represent value constructs used to describe and differentiate cultures (management association, 2014) was established. awareness to the dimensions of the national culture in our country will let us identify intercultural specific characteristics in the management of enterprises in the republic of moldova, thus, being possible to determine the methods and techniques to be imported in order to increase the managerial efficiency of domestic economic entities. in addition, it will help to educate an individual with a „global mindset”1 which is the only way for a business to succeed across cultures. in order to assess the national culture similarities and differences, it is certainly necessary to use specific models to examine the cultural dimensions of values. the models proposed by various specialists in the field of culture and management are not all encompassing and are not mutually exclusive (f. trompenaars & hampden-turner, 2011). each approach presents different perspectives and can be useful separately or in combination with others. the goal of the present study is to analyse the dimensions of the two research segments’ cultural and intercultural organizational framework: managers and students that have chosen their future career in management or business. in this regard, we set the following specific objectives: ✓ to analyse the way in which individuals from the two segments, managers and students, perceive the national-cultural reality of the republic of moldova. ✓ to make a comparative analysis of the two investigated groups cultural dimensions. ✓ to establish general national cultural profile in the republic of moldova and analyse its influence on intercultural management of moldovan enterprises. ✓ to offer specific recommendation to improve intercultural management in accordance with each cultural dimension. based on the literature, observations of managers and students behaviour in the context of the problem presented, the following hypotheses were advanced and verified: 1. there is a differentiation in terms of nature and level of importance of values and behaviours according to the proposed model between active managers and students, representatives of the population not influenced by economic and/or economic/managerial education, belonging to generation z, those born after 1995, perhaps the most argued generation, representing the managers of the near future of enterprises in the republic of moldova. the fact that they are “digitally” born, have had access to communication and information technologies from a young age, have had access to all the knowledge of the world at a click’s distance, almost anytime and anywhere make them very different from previous generations (david, 2015). 2. knowledge of the moldovan “cultural profile” would be useful at the national level, as well as internationally, to offer managerial advice to enterprises to become more competitive in domestic and international markets. 1 why global mindset® is essential on https://thunderbird.asu.edu/knowledge-network/globalmindset-essential https://thunderbird.asu.edu/knowledge-network/global-mindset-essential https://thunderbird.asu.edu/knowledge-network/global-mindset-essential 4 theoretical and scientifical journal literature review intercultural concepts and contexts have inspired researchers, especially those who analyse culture and its impact on enterprise management, to examine the effect of a society's norms and values on the individual within a society and enterprise. adler argues that “organization culture does not erase or diminish national culture. employees and managers bring their ethnicity to the workplace” (adler & gunderson, 2008). the model that we have applied in our research is that of fons trompenaars1, dutch researcher and practitioner in the field of culture and business issues, and charles hampden-turner2, british researcher and author of numerous books on culture, intercultural competence, and business dilemmas. they based their model with seven key dimensions, having foundation in the works of anthropologists kluckholn and strodtbeckin stating that people from different cultures are accustomed to have specific hierarchies of values, called “a continuum", that depend on the perceived importance of each value. cultures are different due to specific 'value orientations', i.e. conceptions of what is considered desirable or appropriate and vice versa. according to kluckhohn and strodtbeck (kluckhohn & strodtbeck 1961:11), there are possible criteria for describing value orientation: orientation towards the human being; the human-nature orientation; orientation in time (past, present, future); orientation in activity; and relational orientation regarding the concept of space (private/public). parsons & shils proposed a model of five pairs of cultural dimensions that determine people's preferences and choices: affectivity affective neutrality; orientation towards “i” orientation towards the community; universalism particularism; attribution realization; and specificity diffusion (parsons & shils 1951:80-85). the measure of inward-outward control that trompenaars and hampden –turner used is that of rotter’s locus of control theory (rotter, 1966) and the measure of time perspective is derived from cottle’s reserch (cottle, 1968). thus, trompenaars and hampden-turner, based on the above-mentioned concepts, came to define culture as a “matrix” of assumptions, categories, concepts and values that describe people's attempts to solve various problems that arise in everyday life but also in business. they focused on the idea that people solve problems in three ways: “those that arise from our relationships with other people; those that come from the time perception; and those related to the environment” (f. trompenaars & hampden-turner, 2011). their model goes beyond the framework of anthropology and sociology and shows how these dimensions also affect the process of management in different cultures. the cross-cultural model contains seven polar dimensions of culture. universalism versus particularism are parameters of culture that characterize the importance of formal relations in society. individualism versus communitarianism are parameters of culture that characterize the behaviour of individuals and groups in a society. neutral versus affective are cultural parameters that characterize the degree of emotionality and its exteriorization in social and business relationships. specific versus diffuse are the parameters of culture that characterize the degree of differentiation between the personal and public space of a person. achievement versus ascription are parameters of culture that characterize the ways of acquiring high status in society. sequential time versus synchronous time are parameters of culture that characterize people’s perception of time. 1 http://www2.thtconsulting.com/about/people/fons-trompenaars/ 2 http://www2.thtconsulting.com/about/people/charles-hampden-turner/ http://www2.thtconsulting.com/about/people/fons-trompenaars/ http://www2.thtconsulting.com/about/people/charles-hampden-turner/ 5 economy and sociology outward direction versus inward direction are parameters of culture that characterize people's attitude to their environment. for the first time, the mentioned model was used in cross-cultural study in the republic of moldova for establishing the dimensions and their variations in 2017 (pîrlog, 2017). later, the model was used to analyse the impact of cultural dimensions on intercultural competence development within universities in the republic of moldova and romania (covas & pirlog, 2019). data sources and used methods as mentioned before, the main purpose of our research was to identify and analyse the cultural features of managers with business experience in various branches of the economy and students who are potential future managers to establish the „cultural profile” in the republic of moldova. the sampling and selection of respondents for the research were in line with the proposed goal and objectives. the questionnaire was addressed to two main categories of respondents: ✓ various level managers of small, medium and large enterprises from the republic of moldova in different fields of activity. ✓ first year students in economics (aged between 17 and 24 years old) potential managers. it is important to mention that we chose first year students of asem (academy of economic studies of moldova) to participate to our survey, who were supposed to investigate the “pure/authentic” cultural dimensions, not affected by studies in business or management. to realize the objectives of the present study, a questionnaire, consisting of two sets of questions, was used. the first one contains questions aiming to analyse the demographic profile of students, managers and the enterprises they work. these characteristics that we considered important to be analysed are: age, level of education, gender, location, level in the managerial hierarchy, types of enterprises by nature of capital and spheres of activity. the second set contains questions described by trompenaars and hampden-turner in the book “riding the waves of culture”, chapter entitled „test yourself”. they were translated into romanian according to the international translation protocol in research, suggested by brislin (brislin, 1970), adapted for managers and students in economics from the republic of moldova. this part of the questionnaire consists of seven dilemma situations (for seven cultural dimensions) with four answer options each. both groups of participants were asked to offer an opinion about their vision and possible behaviour in a certain dilemma situation, by choosing one of the four given options. the response options were developed to measure the cultural dimensions, being designed in a way that there are two extreme poles and two intermediate points describing a dimension. to make the quality of the study as high as possible, we started by sending the questionnaire by e-mail to 220 managers, as well as 150 economics students. the advantage of the on-line questionnaire is the low cost, the distribution can be in a wider geographical area, and the respondents can complete the questionnaire when they want and can distribute it to others who want to participate in the survey. the disadvantage of an on-line survey is the low response rate. in our case, from 370 questionnaires sent, 201 were answered. at the same time, the researcher cannot control the conditions in which the questionnaire is completed, cannot observe the respondents' reactions to the questions (neuman, 2000). in our case, in the situation of the covid pandemic, this was the only way to reach the respondents. we consider it useful to present qualitative data in tables and diagrams to make the information clear to the reader. table 1. displays the demographic profile of the respondents of the two segments of respondents. 6 theoretical and scientifical journal table 1 demographic profile of respondents of the two respondent segments. individual characteristics managers (%) economist students (%) gender female male 62% 38% 65 % 35% age (years) 16-24 25-35 36-50 51-65 28% 23% 35% 14% 100% location of respondents chisinau other regions 70% 30% 33% 67% level of education college high school bachelor degree master’s degree doctorate other 3% 7% 35% 33% 8% 29% 68% the level of management they represent high-level (top) middle-level lower level 40% 45% 15% source: developed by author based on the answers from the both groups of respondents, it should be noted that more managers are aged between 16-35 (51%), age 36-50 (35%), 14% age 51-65. the students, being in the first year at university, between 16 22 years old, which constitutes 95% of the given sample. also, the share of females is much higher than that of males in both segments, 62% females and 38% males for managers and 65% females and 35% males for students. regarding the level of accomplished studies, most of the respondent-managers have undergraduate level-35% and master's degree-33%. 68% of students come with high school studies and 29% with college studies. the location of the respondents was as follows: managers from chisinau constitute 70%, and those from other localities 30%, students from chisinau have a share of 34%, the other 64% are people from other regions of the country. the middle-level managers have constituted the major segment in the study 45%, followed by the highlevel managers with 40%. the lower-level managers segment makes up 15%. the table below evaluates the profile of the studied enterprises. table 2 profiles of the investigated enterprises characteristics of the enterprise no. (%) enterprise (by size) big medium-sized small micro 15% 18% 40% 27% enterprise (by type of capital) private public mixed with foreign capital 70% 17% 5% 8% enterprise (by field of activity) trade transport and storage education, culture financial-banking and insurance services health construction light industry food industry other (cumulative) 28% 18% 10% 8% 7% 5% 5% 3% 6% source: developed by the author 7 economy and sociology the results of research and discussions the attitude of the two segments of respondents in which the study was conducted reflect their perception of the general cultural dimensions of the society (in case of students) and enterprises (in case of managers) where they belong. the cultural “profile” in the republic of moldova was built up based on dimensions described below. in accordance with the obtained results, a set of general rules, for each dimension, to improve intercultural behaviour and relations (gordon 2021) was provided. to determine whether the national culture of the republic of moldova is universalist or particularistic, we asked the respondents to choose the closest option to a dilemma situation for them. the question is whether the respondent believes to follow the rules strictly or to be flexible and to act according to a specific situation i.e. by deviating from rules. universalism presupposes the construction of social and business relations within a society with uniform/universal rules, procedures and standards that are applicable always and in any circumstance. particularism represents relationships based on flexibility of personal connections and actions taken according to specific situations (a. trompenaars & hampden-turner, 2020). figure 1. universalism versus particularism dimension source: developed based on own study figure 1 represents the universalism vs. particularism dimension, in which the results look as follows: 1. completely universalist response. 2. completely particularistic response. 3. particularistic response doubled by universalist orientation. 4. universalist response but with the recognition of social relations. the obtained results demonstrate that the republic of moldova is a predominantly particularistic society. a particularistic managerial culture is based on decisions made according to specific situations or circumstances. this type of culture is found in less developed societies, where people tend to place a lot of value on emotional issues and sometimes tend to make decisions based on how the situation evolves, as it is believed that each situation may take a different perspective and require different solutions. the students segment shows a moderate inclination to universalist values with recognition of particularistic social relations is predominant that means that there is a tendency to trust rules and standards, and to act accordingly. thus, the most appropriate managerial strategies should be based on: ✓ granting autonomy to employees. ✓ respecting the other people needs of in the decision-making process; ✓ developing flexibility in decision-making; 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 % universalism vs. particularism managers students 8 theoretical and scientifical journal ✓ allocating time to build relationships and interact with people in a way their needs are better understood; ✓ highlighting the essential rules and policies to be followed. to determine the level of individualism versus communitarism among the respondents from the republic of moldova, we used a dilemma situation with four alternative answers about the role of competition and cooperation for the success of an enterprise. in an individualistic culture, a person relies on himself/herself in the organization of their life and business activity, on their unique knowledge, abilities and experience. in a communitarist/collectivist culture, a person feels like a member of a team/group and manages their personal and business relationships according to group standards (a. trompenaars & hampden-turner, 2020). figure 2. individualism versus communitarism dimension source: developed based on own study figure 2 shows the variables for the individualism vs. communitarism dimension, and represent the following: 1. radical individualistic response; 2. answer that affirms competitive individualism, but in combination with collective cooperation; 3. answer that demonstrates the pre-eminence of the group, but also allows the existence of competitive individuals; 4. radical collectivist response. the results for this dimension, presented in figure 2, show a moderate attitude towards both extremes in both segments: managers and students. being, for a long time, a component part of the ussr, people developed a collective thinking, as demonstrated by the representatives of older generations in our survey. after gaining independence, since 1989, the republic of moldova has adopted several western attitudes due to the process of openness and globalization. the answer given by them indicates competitive individualism, where to get results collective cooperation is allowed. this means that culture praises and rewards individual performance in collaboration with others, people's needs come before those of organizations, people have moderate initiative and autonomy to make their own decisions, people are moderately allowed to be creative and learn from their mistakes. considering the survey results, the most appropriate managerial strategies should be based on: ✓ recognizing and rewarding individual performance within the group but also involving others in decision making; ✓ avoiding favouritism; 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 2 3 4 % individualism vs. communitarism managers students 9 economy and sociology ✓ stimulating the initiative and autonomy of employees within and in favour of the group/community; ✓ connecting the needs of people with those of the group or enterprise; ✓ promoting collective creativity through the contribution of each member of the group. the neutral versus affective dimension reflects the degree and range of emotion expression. in neutral cultures, it is customary not to show the feelings. emotional/affective cultures are characterized by openness, excessive talkativeness, and spontaneous expression of feelings (f. trompenaars & hampden-turner, 2011). to determine whether the national culture in the republic of moldova is affective or neutral, we asked respondents how they would react if they felt insulted during a meeting with a business partner. figure 3. neutral versus affective dimension source: developed based on own study figure 3 presents the neutral versus affective dimension in the republic of moldova, in which the results look as follows: 1. radical response for neutral orientation; 2. neutral orientation response, but recognizes the importance of emotions for good relationships; 3. affective orientation response, which involves controlling interactions; 4. radical response to emotional orientation. the results in the figure 3 indicate that the respondents who chose option 1 or 2 proving that the society in the republic of moldova is a neutral one, in which emotions are not openly expressed, but anyway, emotions are important for establishing relationships. in neutral cultures, people believe that they should always control their emotions; also, their actions are influenced by reason rather than emotions. in our country, people are expected to rigorously manage their feelings; they do not allow them to interfere with professional life. the most appropriate managerial strategies in the case of this dimension should be based on: ✓ effective management of emotions; ✓ using body language carefully in the sense of transmitting negativity; ✓ non-deviating from the object or core meaning of meetings and other interactions; ✓ being attentive to people's reactions because they are reluctant to show their genuine emotions. the diffuse versus specific dimension indicates the degree of involvement and refers to the interconnection of the private and professional spheres. specific means a rigid separation of private and business life. the private sphere of a person is closed to other people, except for the closest 0 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 % neutral vs. affective managers students 10 theoretical and scientifical journal friends and colleagues. diffuseness is a cultural characteristic in which the overlap of public and private spaces of a person is considered a norm.(a. trompenaars & hampden-turner, 2020) to determine whether a culture is specific or diffuse oriented, we asked respondents to choose the closest, in their opinion, among four alternatives, answer concerning relationship between the profitability of the enterprise and its stakeholders. figure 4. diffuse versus specific dimension source: developed based on own study figure 4 shows the variables for the diffuse vs. specific dimension which represent the following: 1. response for diffuse orientation; 2. compromise response for both, having a diffuse starting point; 3. compromise response for both, with specific starting point; 4. response for specific orientation. management activity involves establishing relationships with other colleagues, employees, superiors. results in figure 4 obtained as part of our study shows that professional relationships and hierarchies are transferred to “private lands” in the republic of moldova, i.e. a manager is a manager, no matter where an employee meets him, which explains the diffuse-oriented approach. also, the study indicates the prevalence of the diffusely oriented approach more clear among students than managers. this situation is influenced by the young age of respondents especially when they are not yet employed, who have respect for those above them in hierarchy. thus, the most appropriate managerial strategies should be based on the following: ✓ building good personal relationships with people before moving on to business issues; ✓ in-depth information about the people you will work with and the companies you will do business with; ✓ discussing business during social interactions and having personal discussions at work; ✓ avoiding rejection of social involvement. ascribed versus achieved status is a dimension developed in the studies of f. trompenaars and ch. hampden-turner that analyses the position and status that a person has in a society or a company and the way they have achieved it. the culture of achievement is characterized by the fact that the status of a society member is determined by the success of them fulfilling their tasks and functions as well as the results obtained. in a culture of ascription, a person's age, origins and work experience determine their status and authority (a. trompenaars & hampden-turner, 2020). 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 % diffuse vs. specific managers students 11 economy and sociology to determine whether the national culture in the republic of moldova indicates status by ascription or achievement, we asked respondents to choose one of the four declared alternatives that they considered appropriate for the situation about how a person obtains their status. figure 5. ascribed status vs. achieved status dimension source: developed based on own study figure 5 shows the variables for the ascribed vs. achieved status dimension in the republic of moldova which represent the following: 1. radical response showing the ascribed status; 2. response for the belief that the ascribed status provides social and managerial benefits; 3. response for the belief that the achieved status will lead to social an also, to managerial growth; 4. radical response for the achieved status. in our research, the opinion that a person's status should depend on their achievements and not on age or origin obtained 31-33% of support from both groups of respondents. the opinion that approves the assigned status that offers social benefit obtained the highest support 42% in the group of managers and, respectively, 44% in students (figure 5). in the case of this dimension, the most appropriate managerial strategies should be based on: ✓ rewarding and recognition of good performance in an appropriate manner; ✓ using titles only when it is relevant; ✓ the importance of a positive role model. another dimension studied by trompenaars and hampden-turner is sequential versus synchronous time, that identifies how people understand and manage the time. in cultures with sequential perception of time, people believe that time passes from past to future, not having inter-time connection, each moment of time is unique, time is a valuable resource that must be used in the most effective way. accordingly, in such cultures, people tend to do one thing in a specific period of time, accurately respect the deadlines, be punctual for business meetings and strictly follow the developed plan. people in cultures with synchronous orientation of time consider time cyclical, they believe that it is impossible to catch the time, so they need to be more relaxed and not worry if they are late. therefore, in synchronous cultures, people work on several projects at the same time and are flexible about plans and obligations (f. trompenaars & hampdenturner, 2011). 0 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 % status ascribed vs. status achieved managers students 12 theoretical and scientifical journal in our survey, we asked respondents to choose an option about the best ways to improve the use of time in the process of products delivery on the market, when they are needed. figure 6. sequential time vs. synchronous time source: developed based on own study figure 6 shows the variables for the dimension of time perception in the republic of moldova which represent the following: 1. radical response for the sequential orientation of time; 2. response for sequential option, but connected to synchronously managed processes; 3. synchronous orientation response, but connected to high-speed processes managed sequentially; 4. radical response to synchronous orientation. there are differences between the two groups of respondents, which refer to the way of perceiving and managing time. students demonstrate a sequential attitude regarding time, i.e. punctuality, compliance with programs, planning are not its basic ingredients. there is not a high level of synchronous orientation among managers, who demonstrate a perception of time at a mean level of both directions. (figure 6).(f. trompenaars & hampden-turner, 2011). analysing this dimension, the most appropriate managerial strategies should be based on: ✓ offering flexibility in the sense of personal as well as group approach to work; ✓ providing employee autonomy in the work schedule; ✓ giving people flexibility and tolerance to reach events later; ✓ explanation of any ambiguity, deadlines could be flexible, but should be met. outward versus inward indicates people’s orientation concerning their environment. people in an inward oriented culture believe that the environment presents no threat, so they focus on managing internal resources, solving internal problems, and internal control. in a culture of outward orientation, people believe that they must work together with their environment to achieve goals and live in harmony with them. in these cultures, flexible and good relationships with partners are more important than focusing on personal achievements. to show the general trend in the republic of moldova concerning this dimension, respondents were asked to express their attitude whether the strategy should be designed at the top of the enterprise and transmitted down, being implemented locally, or it should be initiated and implemented at the base of the enterprise where the interaction with customers, could be more effective. 0 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 % sequential vs. synchronous time managers students 13 economy and sociology figure 7. outward versus inward orientation dimension source: developed based on own study figure 7 shows the variables for the dimension outward versus inward orientation in the republic of moldova which represent the following: 1. radical response for outward orientation; 2. outward response with inward-facing connections; 3. radical response to inward orientation; 4. option for inward orientation but with connections to outward oriented strategies. students and managers in the republic of moldova mainly emphasize self-confidence and the dominant attitude towards the environment that is shown in figure 7. the opinion that all achievements and merits should be attributed to their own actions and should depend only on the work and actions of individuals is 37% for students and 30% for managers. the highest percentage of support for the opinion on the dependence of actions and the decision of outward orientation factors with internal implication was found in the group of managers47%, but also for students-28%. the characteristics of outward oriented groups include a flexible attitude, willingness to compromise and living in harmony with nature, i.e. acceptance of the environment. thus, the most appropriate managerial strategies recommended to implement according to this cultural dimension should be based on: ✓ stimulating individuals to self-develop the skills and abilities and to self-control the learning; ✓ setting clear goals with which employees’ agreement; ✓ developing openness to different opinions and constructive conflict settlement. conclusions despite the importance of cross-cultural studies, moldovan national and business cultures are still unknown neither for local managers nor for foreign businesses, investors and entrepreneurs: no deep research has been done in this field and there are very few resources to provide coherent information about the subject. we tried to complete this gap with the present study. due to data obtained in the survey we could „design” the national profile, according trompenaars and hampdenturner model in the republic of moldova and to distinguish some relevant characteristics. moldovan society is a particularistic one, in which people believe that the circumstance and relationship can establish the rules that they live by. the focus in moldovan society is more on relationships than on rules. 0 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 % outward vs. inward orientation managers students 14 theoretical and scientifical journal moldovan society is moving to competitive individualism where collective cooperation is also allowed. people of younger generations believe in personal freedom and achievements. they believe in their own decisions, and about the obligation to take care of themselves. peoples’ individual needs come before those of organizations, they are allowed to be creative and learn from their mistakes. according to trompenaars and hamden-turner model, people in moldovan society have a neutral orientation. people make effort to control their emotions and reason influences their actions more than their feelings. moldovans often try to hide their emotions, even, when supervisors hurt them. in the republic of moldova, there is a diffuse starting point of perception of the public and private space. there is an overlap between people’s work and personal life. they believe that good relationships are vital to achieve business goals and in their social life, whether they are at work or outside it. people can spend time with colleagues and clients in informal conditions. regarding the attribution of the status in the republic of moldova, on one hand, we have the situation when the assigned status offers social benefits. people believe individual should be valued for whom they are. power, title and position are more important for the older group of our respondents (managers), and these characteristics define their behaviour. on the other hand, we see the tendency for achieved status that prevails in younger respondents’ answers, proving that they tend to recognize value and reward good performance. in the republic of moldova, managers have a balance between the synchronous and the sequential perception of time: they see the past, present, and future as interconnected periods. plans and commitments could be flexible and changeable. students are sequential: they prefer events to happen in order. they value planning, respect punctuality and following schedules. "time is money” is their motto. these controversial data lead us to the idea that moldovans emphasize punctuality, but more often, they are not punctual. there is an inward orientation trend in both groups of respondents, more among students, because they have a great ability to control their environment, especially in the technological sense, due to the development of information technologies. managers in the republic of moldova have a tendency (40%) of outward orientation with internal-facing connections that means that people believe that nature, or their environment controls them, that means, they must work in tandem with the environment to achieve goals. in conditions of work or in personal relationships, they concentrate their attention and actions on others, and they try to avoid conflict as possible. people, with this time orientation, often need reassurance or approval upon doing a good job. description of these cultural dimensions let us offer some general directions to be taken into consideration by any individual or business interacting with representatives from the republic of moldova to have successful relationship on any level. we have to mention that cultural dimensions established and analysed in the research do not take into account people's personal experiences or differences between sub-cultures within our country. this is especially relevant in today's global environment, where people can be influenced by many different cultures. we consider, that the examination of the organizational cultural environment of the enterprise in the context of the examined, in this paper, dimensions will allow them to select the most appropriate management methods. references 1. adler, n. j., & gunderson, a. 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(1966). generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. psychological monographs: general and applied, 80(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0092976 13. taras, v., rowney, j., & steel, p. (2009). half a century of measuring culture: review of approaches, challenges, and limitations based on the analysis of 121 instruments for quantifying culture. journal of international management, 15(4), 357–373. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intman.2008.08.005 14. trompenaars, a., & hampden-turner, c. (2020). riding the waves of culture: understanding diversity in global business. 15. trompenaars, f., & hampden-turner, c. (2011). riding the waves of culture: understanding cultural diversity in business (2. ed., repr. with corrections). brealey. received 14 september 2021 accepted 11 november 2021 1 economy and sociology profitability and liquidity of italian gambling companies: quantitative profiles before and during the pandemic for covid-19* guido migliaccio1, phd, associate professor of business administration and accounting, university of sannio, department of law, economics, management and quantitative methods, benevento, italy monica di stazio2, master's degree in business administration, independent researcher, university of sannio, department of law, economics, management and quantitative methods, benevento, italy doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.2-03 jel classification: m10, m19, m40 udc: 658.155(450) abstract one might think that the pandemic had a devastating effect on gambling businesses, due to the long-time closures of arcades. this could have also damaged public finances, considering the revenue from taxes and duties, the fact that the serious social risks due to possible deviance. this research analyses the economic and financial dynamics of italian gambling companies between the two major international crises, while also trying to verify possible relations with the general economic cycle. research methods. the financial statement data of about 1200 firms with a turnover of more than €800,000, for the 2009-2020 decade, were analysed, illustrating the average trends of roa and quick ratio, for italy and each of its macro-areas (north, centre, and south). the data have been subjected to statistical processing. the anova and tukey-kramer methods were used for comparison between macro-regions. the results show that the companies in the sample have an irregular but always positive and increasing roa, with some exceptions. there are no significant differences between the varioust geographical areas. an excellent short-term financial situation is evident everywhere, with increasing and sometimes excessive cash balances. this study сomplements the economic literature on gambling companies, which is lacking. it confirms some of the findings of other scholars who have already highlighted the reduction in profitability during crises, when other authors have highlighted similar profitability trends in other sectors. this quantitative research highlights the high earnings that justify proliferation of gambling companies. public policies should be attentive to the sector that complements national gdp, but can generate serious social pathologies. in the theoretical profile, the aggregation of balance sheets used, however, organised, can prospectively become a useful model for interpreting complex phenomena. keywords: gambling companies, italy, performance, roa, quick ratio, anova. s-ar putea crede că pandemia covid-19 a avut un efect devastator asupra afacerilor cu jocuri de noroc, din cauza închiderii îndelungate a localurilor cu aparate jocuri de noroc. acest lucru ar fi putut, de asemenea, să afecteze finanțele publice, având în vedere veniturile din taxe și impozite, astfel creând unele riscuri sociale din cauza posibilelor abateri. * this paper is the result of collaboration between the two authors. it is however possible to attribute to monica di stazio the paragraph "main results", with relative sub-paragraphs. the other paragraphs are by guido migliaccio.. 1 guido migliaccio, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8882-7648 , email: guido.migliaccio@unisannio.it 2 monica di stazio, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2332-975x , email: monicadist97@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8882-7648 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2332-975x 2 theoretical and scientifical journal în această lucrare se analizează dinamica economică și financiară a companiilor italiene de jocuri de noroc între cele două crize internaționale majore, pentru a verifica, de asemenea, posibilele relații cu ciclul economic general. au fost analizate datele privind situația financiară a aproximativ 1200 de firme cu o cifră de afaceri mai mare de 800.000 de euro, pentru perioada de zece ani 2009-2020, ilustrând tendințele medii ale roa și quick ratio, pentru italia și pentru fiecare dintre macrozonele sale (nord, centru și sud). datele au fost supuse unei prelucrări statistice. pentru comparația între macroregiuni, au fost utilizate metodele anova și tukey-kramer. rezultatele au demonstrat că companiile din eșantion au un roa neregulat, dar întotdeauna pozitiv și în creștere, cu câteva excepții. nu există diferențe semnificative între zonele geografice. o situație financiară foarte bună pe termen scurt este evidentă peste tot, cu solduri de numerar în creștere și uneori excesive. acest studiu completează literatura economică privind companiile de jocuri de noroc, care este foarte deficitară. se confirmă unele dintre concluziile altor cercetători care au evidențiat reducerea profitabilității în timpul crizelor, pe când alți autori au evidențiat tendințe similare de rentabilitate în alte sectoare. această cercetare cantitativă evidențiază profiturile ridicate care justifică proliferarea companiilor jocuri de noroc. politicile publice ar trebui să fie atente la acest sector care contribuie la formarea pib-lui național, dar care poate genera patologii sociale grave. în profil teoretic, agregarea bilanțurilor utilizate, oricât de organizată, poate deveni, în perspectivă, un model util pentru interpretarea unor fenomene complexe. cuvinte-cheie: companii jocuri de noroc, italia, performanță, roa, quick ratio, anova, testul tukey kramer. можно предположить, что пандемия covid-19 оказала разрушительное воздействие на игорный бизнес, в связи с длительным закрытием залов игровых автоматов. это также могло нанести ущерб государственным финансам, учитывая доходы от налогов и сборов, представляя серьезные социальных риски из-за возможных отклонений. в данном исследовании анализируется экономическая и финансовая динамика итальянских игровых компаний в период между двумя крупными международными кризисами, а также проверяются возможные связи с общим экономическим циклом. были проанализированы данные финансовой отчетности около 1200 компаний в области игорного бизнеса с оборотом более 800 000 евро за десятилетний период 2009-2020 гг, показывающие средние тенденции коэффициентов roa и quick ratio для италии и каждого из ее макрорегионов (север, центр и юг). данные были подвергнуты статистической обработке. для сравнения между макрорегионами использовались методы anova и tukey-kramer. результаты исследований показали, что компании в выборке имеют неравномерную, но всегда положительную и растущую рентабельность активов, за некоторыми исключениями. между географическими регионами нет существенных различий. повсеместно наблюдается очень хорошая краткосрочная финансовая ситуация, с растущими и иногда чрезмерными остатками денежных средств. данное исследование пополняет экономическую литературу, касающуюся игровых компаний, которой очень не хватает. оно подтверждает некоторые выводы других ученых, которые уже отмечали снижение прибыльности во время кризисов, тогда как другие авторы отмечали подобные тенденции рентабельности в других секторах. данное количественное исследование подчеркивает высокие доходы, которые оправдывают распространение игорных компаний. государственная политика должна быть внимательна к сектору, который способствует формированию национального ввп, но может порождать серьезные социальные патологии. в теоретическом плане используемая агрегация балансовых отчетов, 3 economy and sociology как бы она ни была организована, в перспективе может стать полезной моделью для интерпретации сложных явлений. ключевые слова: игорный бизнес, италия, производительность, роа, коэффициент быстродействия, anova. introduction gaming meets the need for entertainment. the outcome may depend on the skill or luck of the players (caillois et al., 2007). randomness characterises gambling (altavilla, 1963). occasional gambling is not a pathology. it becomes so when it compromises psychophysical balance (galimberti, 2019). few specialised suppliers of equipment, gaming software, if not self-produced, and financial transactions characterise the industry supply chain (vaughan-williams & siegel, 2013). high international competition characterises the market. people of different social classes and education play. business operational risks are modest, mainly related to the development of the regulatory framework. problems related to the security of financial transactions and computer fraud are less likely to occur in addition to sports fraud. the profit margin also depends on taxation. growth and business development possibilities depend on the physical or virtual market or the differentiation and diversification of games. in italy, the customs and monopolies agency supervises legal gaming (sbordoni, 2010). studies and debates have followed one another in a necessary interweaving of psychological, sociological, legal, and economic aspects (la rosa, 2016a), while the reflection on the managerial and economic-financial characteristics of the companies of the sector to which this contribution is dedicated became relatively marginal, answering some questions: rq1: what was the trend of profitability in the decade considered? rq2: how did the financial dynamics evolve? rq3: has the location of companies affected profitability and financial balances? rq4: what have been the effects on the sector of national policies to deal with the pandemic? everything refers to the italian context, which may be a useful reference for other countries. after the main bibliographic references, the methodology used to elaborate the values of the financial statement is outlined. then, the main results, implications, limitations of the research, and possible developments of the study with critical considerations and conclusions. literature review the bibliographic sources are numerous (teucci, 2019). more recently, an extensive literature search on the subject has been proposed using four emerging keys: adolescent gambling, health conditions, and problem gambling, and dark nudging (buchanan & shen, 2021). it is first necessary to refer to the themes of addiction (gambling disorder), which is, unfortunately, more frequent among fragile people: adolescents (zenarolla, 2017) and the elderly (croce et al., 2017). on these aspects, it is necessary to refer to contributions from psychology and sociology (galimberti, 2019; zappolini & scigliano, 2019). there are frequent public health scares (capitanucci, 2004) and possible criminal deviance (berrittella & provenzano, 2016). recently, probably also due to the effect of the pandemic, there has been an increase in studies on market dynamics more or less related to typical gambling methodologies. this is the case, for example, of the research by chen et al. (2021) who studied the relationships between gambling sentiment and stock market outcomes, to the extent of measuring how gambling captures market bubble events and how it predicts stock and option returns (chen & gan, 2021). these are important assumptions that correlate classic gambling patterns with market trends in other assets and with the choices of stock market investors who are motivated by the expectation of capital gains over rising stock price assumptions (zhu et al., 2021). indeed, stock market speculators are also gamblers... 4 theoretical and scientifical journal there has also been a proliferation of studies on gambling promotions, especially on their advertising (micangeli, 2021). this is in the context of more articulated marketing analyses that sometimes distinguish between different types of players, their perceived values, the satisfaction they have for gambling, and their propensity to reach specific destinations where gambling is widespread and technologically advanced (li et al., 2020). indeed, technology has given a considerable boost to gambling, especially online (liu et al., 2021). closer to the intentions of this research is the study by lim and to (in press) who analysed the economic impact of a pandemic on the tourism economy. however, the authors focused their studies only on macao's destination, which had already been the subject of some previous valuable analyses (liu et al., 2020), concluding that the local situation is characterised by a gambling-dependent economy. this conclusion is justified because the revenues of the local gambling industry are mainly dependent on tourists. the local industry is experiencing an unprecedented decline in revenue due to the collapse of tourism because of the pandemic. however, this is a different context from italy where gamblers are predominantly residents. in the last decade, profound changes have taken place in the regulation of the gambling market in italy, making it the largest in europe. this has had intuitable social effects only partially offset by the rise in tax revenues that have generated justified concerns about the distributional effects of related tax revenues, given that it is widely recognised that poorer individuals are more attracted to gambling (gandullia & leporatti, 2019). it is precisely this significant opportunity for italian tax revenues that leads to the presumption that the local gambling industries are highly profitable. from this justified presumption, the first research hypothesis derives: (h1) companies have positive and sometimes high profitability, measurable through the classical balance sheet ratios. this is considering the characteristics of the betting market in italy. scientific contributions of a typically economic-business matrix are more scarce. the study by ligonie (2018) impregnated on strategies is useful. the studies by mazza (2012) and calvosa (2013) focus on the italian situation. more numerous are the writings that focus on the communication methods for gambling companies to promote their product (ciofalo et al., 2016; la rosa, 2016a), through links with other goods (maher et al., 2006). studies on personnel are also reported to prevent pathologies (kalke et al., 2011; la rosa, 2016a) (kalke et al., 2011; ramaci, 2016). the accounting and reporting aspects have not given the development they deserve. this quantitative analysis wants to remedy this shortcoming, also to verify whether the collection normally in cash favours financial management. that is, it is necessary to verify whether the following: (h2) companies have a good financial situation, measurable through the classical balance sheet ratios. additionally, it should be verified whether (h3) there is a relationship between the economic-financial balance of the companies and the territory. this is especially true in italy, considering the socio-economic imbalances that characterise the three macro-areas of the country. the propensity to gamble could be related to the degree of diffusion of culture and economic well-being. it is also possible to check whether, in times of crisis, there is a greater inclination to gamble to try to compensate for lost earnings (la rosa, 2016a; la rosa & bernini, 2018). in other words, it is necessary to study whether the following: (h4) there is a relationship between financial statements performance and cyclical economic trends. other research, from other sectors, has shown, albeit utilizing financial statement analysis, that there is an obvious relationship with general economic trends (migliaccio & tucci, 2020). 5 economy and sociology the purpose of the research the purpose of this study is therefore to outline an initial analysis of the economic and financial situation of italian companies with ateco code 92.00 (activities concerning lotteries, betting, casinos), also distinguishing them by geographical area, in the period 2009-2020, using the study of the temporal evolution of two indices (roa and quick ratio) obtained from the analysis of their financial statements. research methodology from the "aida" database, the financial statements of about 1,200 companies (1,212 for the decade 2009-2018; 1,197 for 2011-2020), with a turnover of more than € 800,000, were taken, although the amount of information available was always lower. the national data were then broken down into the three national macro-areas and subjected to statistical processing and represented graphically. the main descriptive statistical processes were average, standard error, median, mode, standard deviation, sample variance, kurtosis, asymmetry, interval, minimum, maximum, range of variation. the graphical representation of the trend of the average annual data for each index also required the determination of the interpolating curve, using, as a rule, the polynomial equation of degree 6 that maximised the value of r2. anova methods (with 0.05 level of significance) and, if necessary, tukey–kramer were used for comparison between macro-regions. each outcome is illustrated and commented on. main results roa assesses the profitability of invested capital. it is calculated using the following formula: operating profit/total assets %. it considers characteristic management, non-characteristic management, and equity and debt investments. it is therefore considered a 'global' profitability index. the evaluation of its average values improves through temporal and, where possible, spatial comparisons. table 1 shows the number of data available for italy and its macro-areas (1a) and the average value of the index for each year (1b). table 1 determination of the roa trend table 1a: available data table 1b: roa annual average values source: elaboration on aida data to plot the trend graph of annual average values, we first determine the interpolating equation that maximises the r2 value (table 2). table 2 6 theoretical and scientifical journal equations of roa interpolating curves area equation r2 italy y = -0,0002x6 + 0,0116x5 0,2428x4 + 2,5853x3 13,625x2 + 31,981x 16,785 0,8568 north y = -0,0018x6 + 0,073x5 1,1569x4 + 9,1979x3 37,88x2 + 75,684x 47,528 0,9081 centre y = -0,0002x6 + 0,0117x5 0,2652x4 + 2,9311x3 15,269x2 + 32,878x 15,69 0,6455 south y = 0,0028x6 0,1004x5 + 1,3725x4 8,773x3 + 26,428x2 34,113x + 24,583 0,857 source: elaboration on aida data this results in figure 1, which shows an irregular index trend. figure 1: roa trend 2009-2020 source: elaboration on aida data the lowest values characterise the center (often below 6%), except in 2016 when it reached 19.72%. in the north and south, on the other hand, roa has higher values. moreover, in 2009 in the north, in 2013 in the center, and 2020 in the south, roa takes on negative values, due to operating losses. in the south, on the other hand, there is a significant increase in roa to 27% in 2020. the decline in profitability due to the pandemic-related closures in the last year seems evident. the higher profitability due to the increase in online games has therefore uncompensated for the losses certainly resulting from the prolonged closure of gaming rooms. the only exception is for businesses in southern italy. this last evidence, however, is affected by the more modest number of financial statements currently available: the anomalous data need further study to be justified. the trend of the average roa data can be further elaborated by calculating some statistics (tables 3 and 4). table 3 roa descriptive statistics – italy average median standard deviation variance minimum maximum range of variation 2009 4,29 4,45 36,80 1354,16 -349,24 307,26 656,50 2010 8,04 5,81 30,40 924,43 -241,96 322,94 564,90 2011 12,28 8,94 30,28 916,87 -177,58 283,68 461,26 2012 6,26 3,96 24,67 608,51 -73,16 260,53 333,69 2013 4,00 3,57 24,10 580,90 -173,71 84,33 258,04 2014 9,77 8,02 36,43 1327,39 -140,02 529,23 669,25 2015 8,20 6,05 62,53 3909,62 -764,32 679,87 1444,19 2016 14,06 6,23 58,33 3402,27 -86,15 780,56 866,71 2017 12,95 7,75 43,67 1906,67 -141,31 731,39 872,70 2018 15,80 11,63 22,90 524,29 -94,40 97,09 191,49 2019 10,85 8,05 33,87 1146,89 -465,39 273,51 738,90 2020 0,11 -0,12 36,75 1350,53 -209,75 99,79 309,54 source: elaboration on aida data 7 economy and sociology table 4 roa descriptive statistics macro areas italy north average median standard deviation variance minimum maximum range of variation 2009 -1,10 5 46,84 2193,94 -349,24 48,36 397,6 2010 7,24 9,24 32,16 1034,37 -241,96 68,41 310,37 2011 13,02 13,39 30,96 958,52 -177,58 88,03 265,61 2012 9,22 6,82 21,29 453,35 -73,16 75,90 149,06 2013 5,47 4,34 28,80 829,42 -173,71 84,33 258,04 2014 14,96 8,98 48,45 2347,07 -119,95 529,23 649,18 2015 16,44 7,59 69,66 4852,41 -303,93 679,87 983,80 2016 14,51 5,71 66,06 4363,93 -86,15 780,56 866,71 2017 14,83 7,09 62,69 3930,38 -94,86 731,39 826,25 2018 16,37 11,60 25,02 626,07 -94,40 97,09 191,49 2019 11,13 7,27 18,69 349,29 -43,95 81,93 125,88 2020 -5,91 -3,06 41,06 1686,27 -209,75 65,19 274,94 centre average median standard deviation variance minimum maximum range of variation 2009 5,18 2,27 37,69 1420,28 -41,85 307,26 349,11 2010 6,13 3,15 38,80 1505,39 -65,66 322,94 388,6 2011 8,81 2,64 36,35 1321,35 -78,41 283,68 362,09 2012 2,33 0,70 33,31 1109,53 -61,49 260,53 322,02 2013 -0,75 0,63 18,46 340,82 -72,07 39,58 111,65 2014 2,28 3,29 21,64 468,09 -81,64 50,51 132,15 2015 1,03 3,45 32,94 1084,91 -191,84 66,66 258,50 2016 19,72 5,05 80,41 6465,60 -62,68 644,59 707,27 2017 6,57 5,85 26,00 675,89 -141,31 63,09 204,40 2018 13,03 11,83 17,15 294,16 -27,92 77,54 105,46 2019 9,68 7,57 18,25 333,23 -56,55 80,92 137,47 2020 -6,54 -5,10 23,21 538,66 -55,44 51,88 107,32 south average median standard deviation variance minimum maximum range of variation 2009 9,37 5,12 18,96 359,66 -48,2 75,52 123,72 2010 10,40 6,3 18,94 358,67 -37,59 65,9 103,49 2011 14,40 13,56 22,79 519,29 -109,71 73,40 183,11 2012 5,77 4,73 19,65 386,23 -55,81 52,54 108,35 2013 5,61 5,33 20,81 433,19 -79,37 81,95 161,32 2014 8,82 9,42 25,60 655,29 -140,02 105,48 245,50 2015 3,57 5,58 67,97 4620,07 -764,32 85,65 849,97 2016 9,99 6,62 21,13 446,39 -86,03 87,76 173,79 2017 14,86 11,40 20,22 408,71 -70,08 95,84 165,92 2018 17,33 13,04 23,59 556,60 -38,27 91,37 129,64 2019 11,32 10,47 51,31 2632,46 -465,39 273,51 738,90 2020 27,11 19,18 33,16 1099,84 -7,40 99,79 107,19 source: elaboration on aida data. 8 theoretical and scientifical journal the national figure shows a median that is a little different from the average. the distribution of the data is therefore asymmetrical: most of them have values below the average. the standard deviation and the variance have high values: it is, therefore, possible to say that the return on assets has considerable variability. roa has negative minimum values (in 2015 in the south the minimum value was -764.32%) and positive maximum values (in the north in 2016 it reached 780.56%) that characterise much variation. however, these particularly high or low values are, rare, even though they influence the average. initial observation of the graphs and careful evaluation of the descriptive statistics does not show significant differences between the three macroareas. to better measure and evaluate the differences, the annual average data of the roa were subjected to the anova test (table 5). table 5 anova tests on roa summary groups counting sum average variance north 12 116,17708 9,6814237 51,333558 center 12 67,473088 5,6227573 46,655005 south 12 138,55027 11,545856 40,258297 variance analysis origin of the variation sq gdl mq f significance value f crit between groups 220,1279 2 110,06395 2,388422 0,107462366 3,2849177 in groups 1520,7155 33 46,082286 total 1740,8433 35 source: elaboration on aida data roa shows greater differences within groups than between groups. the analysis of variance revealed no statistically significant differences between the groups considered (f < of f crit). since the null hypothesis is accepted, the post-anova test is not necessary. quick ratio the immediate liquidity ratio assesses the ability to meet upcoming financial commitments with liquid or easily liquidated resources. its formula is current assets inventories/short-term receivables. when the quick ratio: ˗ is greater than 1.5, there is a situation of imbalance due to excess liquidity; ˗ is slightly greater than one 1, there is a consolidated liquidity situation characterised by cash more than short-term debt, without excess; ˗ is less than 1, there is an unbalanced situation, with the risk of default. the informative value of this index should be enhanced with a detailed analysis of the forecast of future cash flows (ferrero et al., 2006, p.135). the data obtained from the aida database on the liquidity index are shown in table 6. 9 economy and sociology table 6 determination of the quick ratio trend table 6a: available data table 6b: quick ratio annual average values source: elaboration on aida data the quick ratio is always between 1 and 2 in all macro-areas, except for 2018 in the north, where it is 2.15, and 2020 in the south, where it is 3.02, and for italy as a whole (2.12) in 2020. therefore, it can be said that the gambling sector is in a good financial situation, with resources that are sometimes surplus in the short term: it can easily cope with debts coming due soon and should find appropriate uses for excess liquidity. for the elaboration of the trend graph, we first determine the interpolating equation that maximises the value of r2 (table 7). table 7 equations of quick-ratio interpolating curves area equation r2 italy y = 3e-05x6 0,0011x5 + 0,0158x4 0,1013x3 + 0,3015x2 0,3198x + 1,2402 0,9845 north y = 3e-05x6 0,0011x5 + 0,0144x4 0,0833x3 + 0,2037x2 0,0821x + 1,0003 0,9731 centre y = 4e-06x6 0,0002x5 + 0,0035x4 0,0256x3 + 0,0715x2 0,0117x + 1,0635 0,9504 south y = 9e-05x6 0,0031x5 + 0,0423x4 0,2751x3 + 0,873x2 1,189x + 1,7907 0,9901 source: elaboration on aida data 10 theoretical and scientifical journal the equations show a high level of interpolating reliability with a range of r2 from 0.9504 to 0.9901. this results in figure 2, which shows a regular trend in the index. figure 2: quick-ratio trend 2009-2020 source: elaboration on aida data. the trend is similar in all macro-areas: in the early years, it is particularly close to 1, while recently, it is closer to 2. companies in the sector are therefore experiencing increasing and sometimes excessive liquidity. this is the case even in years when profitability was lower. the main descriptive statistics (tables 8 and 9) allow for a more detailed analysis. table 8 quick-ratio descriptive statistics – italy average median standard deviation variance minimum maximum range of variation 2009 1,14 0,83 1,19 1,41 0,01 8,64 8,63 2010 1,19 0,97 1,03 1,05 0,00 6,67 6,67 2011 1,33 1,00 1,27 1,60 0,04 9,83 9,79 2012 1,30 0,99 1,08 1,16 0,00 6,33 6,33 2013 1,27 0,97 1,05 1,10 0,01 8,02 8,01 2014 1,40 1,04 1,19 1,42 0,06 8,27 8,21 2015 1,51 1,14 1,31 1,72 0,09 8,53 8,44 2016 1,59 1,23 1,34 1,80 0,01 9,43 9,42 2017 1,72 1,29 1,47 2,15 0,02 9,69 9,67 2018 1,95 1,44 1,62 2,62 0,06 9,46 9,40 2019 1,91 1,41 1,61 2,60 0,01 9,86 9,85 2020 2,12 1,47 1,88 3,53 0,14 8,62 8,48 source: elaboration on aida data 11 economy and sociology table 9 quick-ratio descriptive statistics macro areas italy north average median standard deviation variance minimum maximum range of variation 2009 1,05 0,84 1,05 1,11 0,03 8,64 8,61 2010 1,18 0,99 0,97 0,94 0,11 6,67 6,56 2011 1,30 0,97 1,24 1,54 0,10 8,53 8,43 2012 1,23 0,98 1,01 1,01 0,13 6,33 6,20 2013 1,33 1,01 1,17 1,36 0,12 8,02 7,90 2014 1,49 1,13 1,28 1,64 0,07 8,27 8,20 2015 1,57 1,23 1,31 1,70 0,09 8,22 8,13 2016 1,75 1,27 1,60 2,54 0,12 9,43 9,31 2017 1,89 1,40 1,68 2,83 0,14 9,49 9,35 2018 2,15 1,62 1,88 3,54 0,06 9,46 9,40 2019 1,90 1,34 1,77 3,13 0,16 9,86 9,70 2020 1,95 1,27 1,76 3,10 0,22 6,30 6,08 centre average median standard deviation variance minimum maximum range of variation 2009 1,12 0,88 1,19 1,43 0,01 8,45 8,44 2010 1,09 0,86 1,03 1,06 0,00 6,24 6,24 2011 1,32 0,93 1,34 1,80 0,09 8,38 8,29 2012 1,26 0,90 1,15 1,33 0,00 5,55 5,55 2013 1,12 0,84 0,90 0,82 0,09 5,67 5,58 2014 1,22 0,99 0,95 0,90 0,06 5,54 5,48 2015 1,34 1,06 1,20 1,43 0,10 8,53 8,43 2016 1,36 1,07 0,92 0,85 0,01 5,92 5,91 2017 1,42 1,16 0,91 0,83 0,30 5,24 4,94 2018 1,62 1,28 0,99 0,99 0,30 4,94 4,64 2019 1,84 1,41 1,39 1,94 0,06 9,64 9,58 2020 1,91 1,20 1,72 2,96 0,40 8,24 7,84 south average median standard deviation variance minimum maximum range of variation 2009 1,24 0,81 1,31 1,72 0,04 8,19 8,15 2010 1,28 1,02 1,08 1,17 0,06 5,47 5,41 2011 1,39 1,15 1,24 1,54 0,04 9,83 9,79 2012 1,43 1,13 1,10 1,20 0,02 4,53 4,51 2013 1,29 1,04 1,00 0,99 0,01 6,30 6,29 2014 1,42 1,10 1,23 1,52 0,11 7,80 7,69 2015 1,56 1,15 1,39 1,93 0,13 8,45 8,32 2016 1,57 1,26 1,25 1,56 0,03 8,41 8,38 2017 1,73 1,28 1,47 2,16 0,02 9,69 9,67 2018 1,89 1,38 1,54 2,36 0,24 7,38 7,14 2019 1,97 1,51 1,57 2,47 0,01 8,54 8,53 2020 3,02 1,83 2,36 5,56 0,14 8,62 8,48 source: elaboration on aida data 12 theoretical and scientifical journal the median is very often slightly lower than the average. the largest number of data is therefore characterised by smaller values than the mean. the standard deviation and variance have minute values: there is little variability in the sample and mean is therefore significantly representative. the minimum values are close to zero. thus, there are companies with an unbalanced financial situation in the short term. the maximum values, on the other hand, exceed 2, often approaching 7, 8, and 9, due to companies with excess liquidity. this results in several variations, with the largest number of companies in a balanced situation. the measurement and evaluation of the difference between the groups are entrusted to the anova test (table 10). table 10 anova test on quick-ratio summary groups counting sum average variance nord 12 18,786027 1,5655023 0,1269238 centro 12 16,623452 1,3852877 0,0745255 sud 12 19,791205 1,6492671 0,241315 variance analysis origin of the variation sq gdl mq f significance value f crit between groups 0,4367158 2 0,2183579 1,4795089 0,2424661 3,2849177 in groups 4,8704072 33 0,1475881 total 5,307123 35 source: elaboration on aida data. the anova test confirms that the variability of the sample is minute, both between (0.436715794) and within groups (4.870407). the liquidity index does not show statistically significant differences between north, centre, and south (f < f crit; p-value = 0.242466075). therefore, we accept the null hypothesis h_0 (the mean of the quick ratio is the same in all groups) and reject the alternative hypothesis h_1 (at least one of the group means is different). this result, therefore, renders the post-anova test useless. conclusions the copious studies on the psychological, sociological, and legal aspects of gambling are complemented in this paper with a quantitative analysis derived from the study of the trend of two ratios that well express the short-term profitability and financial balance. answering the first research question (rq1), the first hypothesis (h1) is confirmed: gambling firms have positive and sometimes high profitability. it is always positive even if fluctuations are evident due to the general economic trend. in 2009, due to the global financial crisis, low values are recorded, as well as low values during the years of the reverberation of the crisis (2012-13) that started in the american context. profitability plummeted, although remaining positive on average, also because of the pandemic and the associated closures of gambling halls. the possibility of playing online has therefore uncompensated for the losses due to government measures. moreover, the relief granted by the public authorities has not been sufficient to maintain similar levels of profitability as before. 13 economy and sociology this also answers the fourth research question (rq4) and confirms the fourth hypothesis (h4): there is a clear relationship between profitability outcomes and cyclical economic trends. however, to make a more precise and considered judgement, it is also necessary to check whether there is also a relationship for financial performance. the financial index shows an increasing availability of liquid or otherwise available resources in the short term. responding to the third research question (rq3) the third hypothesis (h3) is thus also confirmed: the italian gambling companies have a prosperous cash situation, constantly increasing, regardless of their location. the dynamics of liquidity, therefore, are not correlated with the economic cycle and are therefore independent of economic periods. profitability is affected by the economic cycle, but the short-term financial equilibrium is not. overall, confirming the fourth research hypothesis (h4) only partially. the territorial location is indifferent in the income and financial perspective. the differences in the three macro-regions are minimal, statistically irrelevant, as anova confirmed. the propensity to gamble is independent of the economic-social conditions of the three italian macro-regions, which are known to be different. the reduction in profitability during the crisis was already highlighted by (la rosa, 2016a, pp. 101–103) during the most acute period (2007-2009) that, however, had not recorded a reduction in the propensity to gamble (la rosa, 2016b, p. 28; sabatino, 2016, p. 61), instead of the one typical of the following years. it is worth noting similar income outcomes in other sectors that were also affected by the reverberations of the crisis in the period 2012-13, such as the wine industries (migliaccio & tucci, 2020). this analysis is undoubtedly useful for the operators of gaming rooms, whether in presence or online because it allows useful comparisons of their economic and patrimonial situation with the average of the sector, to identify possible significant gaps that could be harbingers of future crises. the positive judgement on profitability and treasury, however, excludes significant imbalances. therefore, if the operators can be pleased with the conclusions of this study, certainly the information that derives from it is, in contrast, worrying from a social perspective because always positive income and the abundance of liquidity could induce new investments with the risk of uncontrolled propagation of gambling and the relative possible deviance. the effort of public authorities, therefore, should be to educate people about gambling and avoid addiction: schools, first, should launch appropriate awareness campaigns. if it is true that legal gambling is a source of considerable revenue for the treasury, it is also true that the prevention and treatment of addiction could have high economic and social costs, as well as consequences for public order. this study is also useful for all other stakeholders: good economic and financial balance guarantees the stability of employment and favours lenders who can calmly invest in a sector that seems to be doing well even in periods when there are serious crises and bankruptcies elsewhere. the research re-evaluates the importance of financial statements and quantitative approaches, reaching conclusions based on official information rather than mere theoretical constructs. it also makes it possible to systematise the accounting results of individual companies, putting them into a systemic perspective. spatial and temporal comparisons allow synthetic assessments of the sector's performance based on the precise recording of all economic and financial events that characterise the day-to-day life of companies. the company's records, therefore, are no longer only aimed at fulfilling civil and fiscal obligations, but they assume a useful value for appropriately and adequately informed managerial decision-making processes. the aggregation of financial statements, however, organised, can prospectively become a useful model for interpreting complex phenomena. in the future, however, the analysis should be detailed, using also other indices and correlating the results obtained using other non-accounting factors such as, for example, the gender, age, and income of the players, as well as considering their habitual residence. everything should also be assessed from an interdisciplinary perspective, considering the psychological and social aspects of 14 theoretical and scientifical journal gambling. indeed, economic analyses are not enough to solve pathologies. instead, what is needed is the individual's willingness to become independent (carr, 2015), with the help of families (corleto, 2019; rossi et al., 2018) aided by the institutions that have the difficult task of preventing and, if necessary, sanctioning (capitanucci, 2004). references 1. altavilla, e. 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(2021). the gambling preference and stock price: evidence from china’s stock market. emerging markets review, 49, 100803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2021.100803 received 03 november 2021 accepted 15 december 2021 economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 100 fertility transition from traditional to modern model in moldova: exploration in base on the "generation and gender survey" doi: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-09 ecaterina grigoraș, phd student, centre for demographic research national institute for economic research, moldova https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5607-5322 e-mail: ecaterina.grigoras@ince.md olga gagauz, habilitation in sociology, centre for demographic research national institute for economic research, moldova https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1175-1008 e-mail: gagauz_olga@ince.md the study is conducted within the project 20.80009.0807.21 “ migrațion, demographic changes and situation stabilization policies”, 2020-2023. received 18 march 2022 accepted for publication 12 may 2022 https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-09 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5607-5322 https://e.mail.ru/compose/?mailto=mailto%3aecaterina.grigoras@ince.md https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1175-1008 mailto:gagauz_olga@ince.md economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 101 abstract in moldova, like in other countries of eastern europe, after the 1990s, fertility transition from the traditional model to the modern one is occurring. a stable fertility decline was observed up to 2004, while the total fertility rate settled at 1.7-1.8 births per woman in the following years. although the indicator is higher compared to other states, the factors determining this level and the likely future trends are essential questions to be asked. we assume some of the sociodemographic characteristics of women, the socioeconomic and cultural context impact the reproductive behavior and determine whether to keep the traditional model or switch to the modern one. the research is conducted to highlight the differences in women's reproductive behavior and the sociodemographic characteristics that impact the number of children born. the research is based on the" generations and gender survey" conducted in moldova in 2020. a detailed profile of women's reproductive behaviour was presented on the base of four identified clusters, which characterize the fertility transition from the traditional to the modern model. findings reveal that the traditional model of reproductive behavior with a large family or, at most, with two children is prevalent. medium and high education, late age at marriage and urban residence of women have a negative effect on the number of children ever born. the study quantifies the heterogeneity of reproductive behavior and has important implications for the scientific perception of current trends and prospective fertility dynamics in moldova. keywords: fertility transition, reproductive behavior, traditional fertility model, modern fertility model, moldova în moldova, ca și în alte țări din europa de est, după anii 1990 are loc tranziția fertilității de la modelul tradițional la cel modern. scăderea stabilă a fertilităţii a fost observată până în 2004, în anii următori rata totală de fertilitate s-a stabilit la un nivel de 1,7-1,8 naşteri pe femeie. deși acest indicator este mai înalt în comparație cu alte state, factorii care determină acest nivel și tendințele viitoare posibilele prezintă o întrebare de cercetare importantă. presupunem că caracteristicile sociodemografice ale femeilor, particularitățile contextului socioeconomic și cultural au un impact asupra comportamentului reproductiv și determină fie păstrarea modelului tradițional, fie trecerea la cel modern. pentru a răspunde la aceste întrebări, a fost realizată o cercetare pentru a evidenția diferențele în comportamentul reproductiv al femeilor, precum și caracteristicile sociodemografice care influențează numărul de copii născuți vreodată (mediul de reședință urban sau rural, nivelul de educație, vârsta la primul contact sexual, vârsta la prima căsătorie, vârsta la prima naștere, lungimea intervalelor protogenezic și intergenezic). lucrarea se bazează pe cercetarea ”generațiile și gender” realizat în moldova în anul 2020. pe baza a patru grupuri identificate a fost prezentat un profil detaliat al comportamentului reproductiv al femeilor, care caracterizează tranziția fertilității de la modelul tradițional la modelul modern. constatările arată că în moldova modelul tradițional al comportamentului reproductiv predomină fie cu o familie numeroasă, fie cu cel mult doi copii. nivelul mediu și înalt de educație, vârsta târzie la căsătorie și reședința în mediul urban ale femeilor au un efect negativ semnificativ asupra numărului de copii născuți. studiul cuantifică eterogenitatea comportamentului reproductiv și are implicații importante în percepția științifică a tendințelor actuale și a dinamicii prospective a fertilității în moldova. cuvinte cheie: tranziția fertilității, comportamentului reproductiv, model tradițional al fertilității, model modern al fertilității, moldova. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 102 после 1990-х годов в молдове, как и в других странах восточной европы, происходит переход рождаемости от традиционной модели к современной. устойчивое снижение рождаемости наблюдалось вплоть до 2004 г., а в последующие годы суммарный коэффициент рождаемости установился на уровне 1,7-1,8 рождений на одну женщину. несмотря на то, что этот показатель выше, чем в других странах, вопрос о факторах, определяющих этот уровень и о возможных будущих тенденциях представляет особую важность. мы предполагаем, что социальнодемографические характеристики женщин, особенности социально-экономического и культурного контекста влияют на репродуктивное поведение и определяют либо сохранение традиционной модели, либо переход к современной. чтобы ответить на эти вопросы, было проведено исследование, направленное на выявление различий в репродуктивном поведении женщин, а также социально-демографических характеристик, влияющих на число рожденных детей (проживание в городской или сельской местности, уровень образования, возраст начала половой жизни, возраст вступления в брак, возраст при рождении первого ребенка, длина протогенетического и интергенетического интервалов). работа основана на данных исследования «поколения и гендер», проведенного в молдове в 2020 г. на основе четырех выявленных кластеров был представлен подробный профиль репродуктивного поведения женщин, характеризующий переход рождаемости от традиционной модели к современной. результаты показывают, что в молдове преобладает традиционная модель репродуктивного поведения либо с многодетной семьей, либо максимум с двумя детьми. среднее и высшее образование, поздний возраст вступления в брак и проживание в городе эти характеристики женщин оказывают отрицательное влияние на число рожденных детей. исследование дает количественную оценку неоднородности репродуктивного поведения и имеет важное значение для научного восприятия текущих тенденций и перспективной динамики рождаемости в молдове. ключевые слова: переход рождаемости, репродуктивное поведение, традиционная модель рождаемости, современная модель рождаемости, молдова. jel classification: j13, j29, j33. udc: 614:612.6(478) introduction in moldova, as in other countries in the eastern european region, the modification of reproductive behavior models occurred very quickly after the 1990s, influenced by the socioeconomic, cultural and ideational transformations that took place after the breakup of the ussr and the achievement of independence. the specific characteristics of the second demographic transition, such as the postponement of births to older ages and the increase in the mean age of the first birth, became more pronounced, confirming the hypothesis regarding the convergence in fertility dynamics (sobotka, 2017), while the persistence of the national specificity demonstrates the complex nature of this process. trends in fertility postponement are well documented in central and eastern europe. however, moldova was often omitted from comparative studies due to the low reliability of the population statistics or the low interest in the small european country. however, the case of moldova is unique if we consider the territorial location bordering the eu and the high territorial mobility of the population. the fertility postponement in moldova follows the general pattern characteristics for most countries that have completed or are in the process of fertility transition (frejka, 2012). at the current stage, moldova is going through the second phase of the transition, which is highlighted by the continuous economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 103 decrease in fertility among younger women and its increase at older ages (gagauz, grigoraș, 2017). compared to other ex-soviet countries in the european region (russia, ukraine, belarus and the baltic states), moldova's fertility transition proceeds slower. the age profile of fertility has an intermediate character of the transition from the early model to the late one (grigoraș, 2019). births delayed to older ages partially recover, causing the fertility of young cohorts to decline. however, the fertility level in moldova is higher than in other european countries due to the higher birth intensity of rural women and their high share in the total population (gagauz et al., 2021). the fertility transition, which is also associated with total fertility rates declining, unfolds differently within distinct social groups of women, with some adopting modern reproductive behavior more quickly while others still follow the traditional pattern. no studies address this issue, and the current paper aims to fill this gap. the article presents the specific reproductive behavior of moldovan women in the fertility transition from the traditional to the modern model. their characteristics such as place of residence, education, age of onset of sexual activity, age at first marriage, age at first birth, and length of the protogenetic and intergenetic intervals are analyzed. considering the complexity and versatility of the fertility transition, we applied a holistic approach using cluster analysis to generalize this process and obtain a limited number of significant types of reproductive behavior. the paper is organized as follows: first, a brief description of moldova's socioeconomic situation and cultural context is provided. then the theoretical framework and the analysis of the previous studies that constitute methodological support for exploring the fertility transition in ex-socialist countries are presented. data and the method for developing the typology of women's reproductive behavior are presented. in the subsection related to the presentation of the empirical results, the four clusters of women are analyzed, which characterize the transition process from the traditional to the modern model. some research limitations are mentioned. socioeconomic, cultural and institutional context of fertility transition after gaining independence in 1991, moldova faced a long-lasting socioeconomic crisis, which significantly affected the population's living standards and increased the risk of poverty. despite multiple reforms over three decades, it has failed to achieve significant socioeconomic progress and ensure a decent standard of living for the country's population. in 2021, the gdp per capita was usd 3753.9, or usd 15637 in purchasing power parity, two times lower than in romania and three and a half times lower than in germany. moldova is one of the poorest countries in europe, with every fourth household living below the poverty line (poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines). the number of children in the family is a predictor of exposure to poverty, with over 40% of all families with three children having incomes below the poverty line (nbs, 2021). a low level of urbanization (42.3% at the beginning of 2022) determines the population's lifestyle. socioeconomic, cultural and demographic disparities between the urban and rural areas significantly impact population reproduction in moldova. in the urban environment, the level of education and the employment rate of the population, including women, is higher. families in the urban environment often face problems combining professional and family roles, which presents a constraining factor for the realization of reproductive intentions (chistruga-sînchevici, 2021). in rural areas, families with children have little access to extra-familial education services and limited employment opportunities, affecting human capital development. the low level of employment, especially in rural areas, determines the high share of uninsured beneficiaries of maternity and childcare benefits and has a negative impact on the financial situation of families after the birth of a child. of the total number of single benefit beneficiaries for the birth of https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/si.pov.nahc economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 104 a child in 2020, about two-thirds were uninsured people, and of the beneficiaries of monthly allowances about 45%. the ratio between the monthly allowance and the subsistence minimum (2020) for insured persons was approximately 104.6%, while the uninsured being 82.9% (nbs, 2020). the reproductive behavior of moldovan women is associated with the relatively low rate of contraceptive use. according to ggs data, more than half of married or cohabiting women (55.1%) use contraceptive methods, including 42.2% using modern methods of contraception. the financial inaccessibility of modern methods of contraception and the low level of public awareness are the main reasons for their low prevalence. oral hormonal contraception is used by a small proportion of women (5%), the intrauterine device (10%) and the condom (21%) being more common (gagauz, 2022). unmet need in contraception constitutes 21% for women who are married or in union (koops, 2022). abortion remains one of the methods of birth control within the family. despite a reduction, the abortion rate is relatively high (29 per 100 live births in 2021). the family occupies a superior position in the lives of individuals, regardless of their demographic characteristics: age, sex, ethnicity, social status, and level of education. the ideal number of children in the family is much more than two. according to the ggs study, over half of respondents (52.6% of men and 57.5% of women) support the idea that the ideal number of children is three and more, and 44.0% of men and 40.2 % of women consider the ideal number of children to be two (gagauz, 2022). the role of women in society can be characterized as modern in the public sphere and predominantly traditional in the private sphere, with women returning to the leading role in raising and educating children and performing household tasks (kellum, 2020; gagauz & chivaciuc, 2021). moldova is a multi-ethnic country, with the largest share of the total population belonging to moldovans/romanians (80.6%), slavic ethnic groups ukrainians, russians and bulgarians (12.4%), gagauz people (turkic people) present 4.5%, other ethnic groups account for 2.5%. over 90% of the population declare themselves orthodox (nbs, 2017). the synergistic impact of all economic, social, institutional and cultural factors determines the specific peculiarities of the fertility transition from the traditional to the modern model in moldova, while the differences between social groups within society, the prevalence of some or other reproductive behaviors present an indispensable component of this process. theoretical framework of research the theoretical framework of the research constituted the theory of the second demographic transition (lesthaeghe, van de kaa, 1986) which assumes a complex adaptation of the entire demographic behavior model to a changing lifestyle, which, as a rule, results not only in a change of the age-specific fertility rates but also in fertility decrease, especially at the initial stage of the transition (zaharov, 2012). more than two decades after the emergence of the second demographic transition theory, regional differences in the fertility transition are found to be determined by deep-rooted cultural traits and patterns of social organization over time, as well as by much older systems of kinship and family organization specific to each country (lesthaeghe, 2014). the fertility transition experience of different regions and countries shows an extensive array of combinations of second demographic transition features and timing profiles, this heterogeneity being equally contingent on historical path dependency and diverging contemporary socioeconomic and cultural evolutions (lesthaeghe, 2020). given that in the countries of central and eastern europe, the demographic changes associated with the second demographic transition began in the 90s period of the last century, there is a significant lag in the dynamics of fertility indicators compared to western countries where fertility transition has economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 105 ended or is at its final stage. some national peculiarities leave an imprint on this process. it is predicted that eastern european countries "are likely to experience further increases in pre-marital cohabitation and in the accompanying feature of higher fertility outside wedlock. however, diversity in degrees of cultural acceptance will result in persistent regional differences as well" (lesthaeghe, 2020). in addition to the second demographic transition theory, the research is also based on the theory of conjunctural action (johnson-hanks et al, 2017), which emphasizes the role of the social context in which the individual interacts. demographic events are interpreted as "social facts", the results of social action that occurred under the impact of the social structure and context. demographic contexts involve social factors that very the fertility level of different groups of women. although modeled as synchronic structures, conjunctures are in constant flux (johnson-hanks, 2007). thus, reproductive behavior is not an abstract one, it is influenced by several specific factors such as the woman's level of education, employment, access to family planning services, the existence of a partner, the benefits of childcare leave at the time, etc. for example, women who were enrolled in the educational system for a longer time and then devoted themselves to professional careers when they were ready to start a family and give birth to a child did not find the right partner. this while women with a low level of education and limited access to family planning services faced an unplanned birth although they wanted to control their fertility. employment or housing conditions, divorce or the death of the partner also present some life conjunctures with an impact on fertility as many other events, the overlapping of which can cause the decline or increase of fertility. unlike the theory of the second demographic transition, which explains the fertility transition through macrosocial changes, the theory of conjunctural action draws attention to the role of life circumstances (conjuncture), which influence individuals' decisions regarding childbirth. therefore, it comes with explanations of fertility differences at the mesoand micro levels. although certain scientific records regarding the impact of the vital conjuncture on the distinct reproductive behavior are not presented in this paper, we do not omit its implications at the individual and general level. literature review several comparative studies have concluded that although there is convergence in terms of the trajectory and structure of fertility transformation in the transition from the traditional to the modern model, the tempo of fertility is a primary factor for diversity (billari, 2017; matysiak et al., 2021). for the countries of central and eastern europe, this region is forecast to converge with cohort fertility levels of around 1.75-2 children per woman, the proportion of women who have not given birth to any children during their reproductive life of 10-20 %, as well as emphasizing the model of families with two children (zeman et al. 2018). among the essential sociodemographic characteristics of the population that influence the fertility transition, higher or lower fertility levels, is the ratio between the urban and rural population (kulu, 2014) and the population's education (brzozowska, 2015). in the urban area, the fertility transition starts earlier, the fertility level is lower and more intense in the late ages, and the postponement of first births is determined by the transition from traditional to modern reproductive behavior model (kulu, 2013; buelens, 2021). among women with a high level of education, the traditional type of reproductive behavior is not widespread (бурлуцкая &терещенко, 2018). unlike western european countries, in central and eastern europe the association between the level of education and the probability of having children of ranks higher than one is negative. the transition to the second/third birth appears as negative for hungary, russia, ukraine (sobotka, 2017). in romania, women with higher education try to make up for the postponement of their first birth by having at least one child by the age of 30, but in most cases, they limit their offspring to only one economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 106 child. thus, a persistent negative effect of the higher level of education on the probability of having a second child is observed (mureșan, 2010). recent studies demonstrate that differences in the intensity and tempo of fertility are observed not only between regions and countries, but also at the subnational level. spatial variations of fertility timing in european regions and how they have changed in the last three decades confirm that there is no clear relationship between fertility intensity and the average age at motherhood, significant spatial variations are found, including within countries. also, postponement transition was not equal in onset and speed within countries (buelens, 2021). according to data for slovakia for the last three decades after the collapse of the socialist state (šprocha et al., 2022), it turns out that economic factors are identified as important for explaining spatial differences in fertility rate, along with some cultural factors that determine changes in fertility tempo. the current study complements the empirical studies on the particularities of the fertility transition in eastern european countries using ggs data from moldova. based on the identified clusters, specific characteristics of the types of reproductive behavior associated with the traditional or modern model are presented. research data and methods the research is based on the "generations and gender" survey conducted in moldova in 2020. the nationally representative sample included 10 036 respondents aged between 15 and 79 from 153 localities (ggs, 2020). given that the age at first marriage and at first birth are the main indicators of the fertility postponement and, therefore of the fertility transition from the traditional model to the modern one (sobotka, 2008; brzozowska, 2021) they were selected as criteria for clustering. the sub-sample consisted of women aged 20-49 who had given birth to at least one child (n=2079). the respondents who mentioned the month and year of first marriage registration and the month and year of the first birth were selected (n=1546). cases with errors were excluded. women who are currently in their first partnership and have given birth to at least one child were added to this number (n=85). thus, the sub-sample consisted of women aged 20-49 who registered their first marriage or are in their first partnership and gave birth to at least one child (n= 1631). the typology development technique was based on hierarchical cluster analysis by the ward method (elmer, 1999). four types of reproductive behavior were identified, being analyzed as separate subsamples through the lens of the main sociodemographic characteristics of women. statistical procedures available in spss, such as descriptive analysis and frequencies according to different sociodemographic variables, were used. the attributes of clusters/models of reproductive behavior in relation to the others were analyzed. to identify the most suitable model several clustering tests were performed. the early age of marriage, of the first partnership, and of the first childbirth were considered characteristics for the traditional model of reproductive behavior. the childbearing postponement was viewed as a feature of the modern model. thus, to highlight the clusters, four sets of age at first birth and first marriage/first partnership combination were identified (table 1). the traditional model of reproductive behavior assumes that the first marriage occurs by age 22, and the birth of the first child − by the age of 23. women who met these criteria were divided into two types of reproductive behavior. the first was considered "traditional with a large family" which included women who gave birth to three or more children, and the second was "traditional with at most two children". the modern type of reproductive behavior was divided into "transitional to modern" and "modern", differentiated by the calendar of births and marriages. thus, the "transitional to modern" type implies the first marriage between the ages of 22 and 23 and the first birth between the ages of 22 and 24. in economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 107 contrast, the "modern" type is associated with the first marriage at 24 and over and first birth at 25 and over. the selection criteria values correspond to the observed trends in the age structure of women at marriage and childbearing. table 1. criteria for clustering by the type of reproductive behavior (n= 1631) nr. types of reproductive behavior age at first marriage age at first birth number of observations 1. traditional with large family up to age 22 de ani up to age 23 de ani 342 2. traditional with at most two children 574 3. transitive to modern ages 22-23 ages 22-24 495 4. modern 24 + 25+ 220 total 1631 the descriptive statistics in table 2 show the percentage distribution of women by cluster and according to marital status (at the time of the interview), age group, education level and area of residence. a small number of women declared cohabiting relationships, which limited the possibilities of analyzing this variable. only in the fourth cluster (modern) does the number of cases present a higher proportion (21%), while in the first three, their share is insignificant (less than 5%). given that living together with a partner is a precursor to marriage in moldova and does not replace legal marriage, a low proportion of married women indicated the experience of partnership within the ggs. table 2. cluster's descriptive statistics clusters m a rr ie d (n u m b e r) in p a rt n e rs h ip (n u m b e r) age groups, % education5,% residence, % 20-29 30-39 40-49 low level medium level high level rural urban traditional with numerous family 330 12 11,3 22,4 26,2 33 21,3 9,1 23,3 7,2 traditional with at most two children 558 16 53,2 26,3 38,4 39,9 42,1 20,3 43,9 33 transitive to modern 484 11 33,0 36,1 23,9 19,2 28,2 50,3 29,7 47,3 modern 174 46 2,4 15,2 11,5 7,9 8,5 20,3 3,1 12,5 total 1546 85 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 5 the low level of education, according to the classification given by the national bureau of statistics, involves at most secondary education; the medium levelat least secondary/high school education and at most college education, and the higher level at least higher education (cycle i). economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 108 each cluster was analyzed separately in terms of women's sociodemographic characteristics such as the area of residence, level of education, the mean age of sexual relations onset, the mean age at first marriage/partnership, the mean age at first birth, the length of protoand intergenic intervals. table 3. statistical tests to compare the differences between the key clusters’ characteristics independent variables (predictors) dependent variable – cluster "traditional with numerous family" = 0 cluster "modern" = 1 dependent variable – cluster "traditional with at most two children" = 0 cluster "transitive to modern" = 1 b sig. exp(b) b sig. exp(b) education level (higher education) .934 .000 2.545 .856 .000 2.354 place of residence (urban) 1.609 .000 4.998 .429 .012 1.536 protogenetic interval .334 .076 1.396 .990 .000 2.692 age of first sexual intercourse .795 .001 2.214 .362 .013 1.436 constant -4.419 .000 .012 -4.768 .000 .008 observations number 374 840 nagelker r square .378 .273 a series of binomial logistic regressions were performed to test the statistical significance of the sociodemographic characteristics of women with different types of reproductive behavior identified. for this purpose, the models were compared: the "traditional with large family" and the "modern" type. the logistic regression model was statistically significant, χ2(4) = 118.354, p < .0005, and explained 37.8% (nagelkerke r2) of the variance in predictor variability of reproductive behavior. the four independent variables registered a significant statistical difference: the place of residence, the level of education, the protogenetic interval, and the age of first sexual intercourse (table 3). comparing the models "traditional with at most two children" and "transitive to modern", demonstrated that the logistic regression is statistically significant, χ2(4) = 191.137, p < .0005. the model explained 27.3% (nagelkerke r2) of the variance in predictor variability of reproductive behavior. statistically significant differences were recorded for the four independent variables (predictors). it should be noted that the traditional model with at most two children also included women from rural areas, who gave birth to their first child at younger ages, until 22 years old (at the moment of the study). by the end of the reproductive period, they may give birth to more than two children and engage in the traditional model with a large family. given the fact that the share of these women is insignificant in the total number of women in the cluster (40 cases, 6.9%) they were not excluded from the cluster. age is a key indicator that determines the probability of having children and their number. even with the same characteristics, such as the place of residence or education level, the likelihood of having children/achieving reproductive intentions is higher for women aged 35-49. for this reason, female reproductive behavior is analyzed in general for women aged 20-49 and by separate age groups to provide a detailed typology's description. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 109 main results the four clusters of women that differ in characteristics of reproductive behavior according to the weight in the total selected sample are presented as follows: the first cluster, "the traditional model with a large family," comprised 21.1% of women; the second cluster, "the traditional model with at most two children" turned out to be the most numerous (35.4%); the third "transitional to modern" cluster, was also quite considerable (30.5%); while the "modern model", smallest by size included 13% of women (figure 1). figure 1. typology of moldovan women's reproductive behavior models, in % source: developed by authors based on generations and gender data, 2020 type i "traditional with numerous family". this type of reproductive behavior is more specific to rural women (80%) with a medium and low level of education, respectively, 48.8% and 40.6%. the average number of children born during reproductive life is 3.4 children per woman. the first births occur early, the average age of the mother at the first birth being 19.8 years, and the early onset of sexual relations before the age of 18 is characteristic for about 40% of the respondents, while between the ages of 18 and 23 it amounts to 60%. often, marriage occurs because of an unplanned pregnancy and the protogenetic interval (the period between marriage and the first birth) less than 9 months is recorded for 59.7% of women. the birth of subsequent children occurs in short succession "one after another", the median interval between the first and second birth being 3.1 years. in the cluster of the traditional type with a large family, women aged 35-49 make up 64.5%, while those aged 25-34 35.4%. economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 110 type ii – "traditional with at most two children". as in the previous cluster, marriage and the birth of the first child occur at young ages, but rigorous control over subsequent births is observed, with most women giving birth to at most two children (75.4%). the average number of children born is 1.87 per woman. the average age at first marriage is 19.7, and the average age at first birth is 20.3. the model stands out by recording the greater distance between the first and the second birth (the median age is 4.02). about 47.9% of respondents record protogenetic intervals of up to 9 months, 42.1% – more than nine months to 2 years and 10% – more than two years. for these women, the onset of sexual relations towards the age of majority is characteristic. those who started sexual relationships between 18 and 23 years record 65.8%, while towards the early ages of up to 18 years 34.3% of the respondents, and only 6.5% towards the age of 24 and above. like the "traditional with a large family" model, the "traditional with at most two children" is more specific to women from villages (71% of the total number of women in this cluster). most respondents have secondary education 57%, low-level education 29% and only 10% higher education. within this cluster, women aged 35-49 constituted 51.3%, those in the active reproductive period ages 25-34 (34.2%), and ages 20-24 (14.5%). type iii, "transitive to modern". compared to previous clusters, marriage at older ages and more rigorous birth control takes emphasis, which causes women to have fewer children on average. women marry around 23-25 years (average age at first marriage – 23.4) and give birth to their first child on average at age 24, recording a more extended period of married life without children. sexual relations start even later, after age 19. the "transitive to modern" model includes women with two children in a proportion of 60.6%, one child 30.9%, and three children or more 7.9%. the average number of children born per woman is 1.8. there is more stringent control over first births, as evidenced by a longer protogenetic interval. for 39.9% of the respondents, this is from ten months to two years. at the same time, 37.2% of women record the protogenetic interval of even more than two years. successive births occur at longer intervals, with at least 4.2 years between the first and second births. for women who have also given birth to their third child, the intergenetic interval of 5 years is recorded. compared to the previous models, there is a higher proportion of women with higher education in this cluster. thus, women with secondary education make up 44%, and those with higher education 39.9%. more than half of the women (53.7%) are from cities. about half of the respondents of this cluster are those aged 25-34 (51.6%), 35-49 years old record 48.3%, and the youngest respondents aged 20-24 number 1.4%. type iv, "modern" it is characterized by marriage at older ages and the late birth of the first child. more women in this cluster have one child 45.4%, two children 41.4%, while 13.2% have three children and more. the onset of sexual relations occurs later compared to the first three types of reproductive behavior, the average age being 20. there was a higher share of respondents who were initiated into sexual relations between the ages of 18 and 23 (69.2%) and 17.4% at age 24 and over. early onset up to age 17 is characteristic for only 13.4% of women in this cluster. entry into the first partnership occurs at the age of 23+. specific to this cluster is the high share of women who gave birth to their first child out of wedlock (17.1%). the average age at first marriage is 28.7, and 29.3 for a first birth. the average protogenetic interval is 1.2 years; pregnancy before marriage (protogenetic interval up to 9 months) is characteristic for 43% of women, more than 9 months to 2 years – 39.1% and more than two years – 18%. the average interval between the first and second birth is four years. most women have higher economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 111 education 44.8% and secondary education 44%. compared to the "transitive to modern" model and the other models, the proportion of urban women in the "modern" cluster is higher 60.9%. women aged 35-49 are found in a ratio of 73.6%, those aged 25-34 – 26.4%. on base of clustering criteria, the respondents were assigned to previously highlighted types according to age group and place of residence (table 4). the results demonstrate a proportional presence of women who fall into the traditional type of reproductive behavior either with a large family or with at most two children in the age groups 20-34 and 35-49, which constitute more than half of the total number of women. among women who have realized their reproductive intentions (35-49 years), 27.2% referred to the "transitive to modern model" and 14.9% to the modern one. young women (ages 20-34) register a higher proportion of those who fall into the "transitive to modern" model (36.5%), while only 6.7% belong to the "modern" model. the clustering of women by place of residence once again underlines the fact that the "traditional type with a large family" has lost its position in the urban area, while the "transitional to modern" and "modern" ones prevail, constituting about 60%. it is remarkable that in the rural area, the "traditional with at most two children" type is present in the highest proportion (43.9%). table 4. results of clustering by women's age groups and place of residence, in % nr. types of reproductive behavior age groups residence rural urban 20-34 35-49 1. traditional with large family 17.1 24.7 23.3 7.2 2. traditional with at most two children 39.7 33.2 43.9 33.0 3. transitive to modern 36.5 27.2 29.7 47.3 4. modern 6.7 14.9 3.1 12.5 total (%) 100 100 100 100 discussion and conclusions the typology of reproductive behavior models demonstrates some particularities of the fertility transition from the traditional to the modern type in moldova. the main factors influencing fertility transition are the place of residence and the education level of women. the persistence of traditional model, either with a large family or with the limitation of at most two children, was found both among the older (ages 35-49) and the younger generations (ages 20-34), especially in rural areas and among women with a low level of education. traditionally, the fertility of rural women is higher than that of urban women, being determined by the lifestyle and the lower level of education of rural residents. the preservation of cultural traditions, higher social control of reproductive behavior, and reduced opportunities to modernize living conditions make the fertility transition from the early to the late model slower. identified patterns show that changes in reproductive behavior appear in postponing marriage and the first birth to older ages (tempo effect), causing a decrease in the number of children of higher economy and sociology june no. 1/ 2022 112 ranks and an increase in the proportion of families with a small number of children (quantum effect). having children at young ages leads to a more significant number of children born during the reproductive period, while postponing births leads to a decrease in the number of children born. this finding correlates with other research (sobotka, 2018). the recording of the long time gap between the registration of marriage and the birth of the first child specific to the "modern" model of reproductive behavior elucidates the rational choice of the moment of childbirth and the control of fertility characteristic of women with a higher level of education. at the same time, a higher share of women who declared themselves in partnership relations confirms the hypothesis regarding the diversity of family models in the second demographic transition and the increase in the share of children born out of wedlock (lesthaeghe, 2020). considering the slow pace of socioeconomic modernization in moldova, the high level of migration of the population, especially the young and well-educated ones, the high level of poverty, as well as the uncertainty regarding the future, we assume that the fertility transition will stagnate or unfold at a slow pace, the total fertility rate will remain at the level of 1.7-1.8 children per woman. at the same time, the gap in fertility indicators between moldova and other ex-soviet countries in the european region, where the fertility transition started after the 90s of the last century, may increase. our study has some limitations. we analyzed fertility histories of women between 20 and 49, born in different periods. their reproductive activity started in the later 1980s the beginning of the 1990s. the older generations' reproductive behavior was impacted by families' policies implemented in the soviet union; those who were in the most active reproductive ages in the late 1900s and early 2000s faced a severe socioeconomic crisis that could negatively affect the number of children born. reproductive behavior of the youngest generations is more 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evolution of costs generated by domestic violence during the covid-19 pandemic in the romanian space. the cost generated by violence is not well highlighted in romania's budgets, however there are methods that may be used to quantify it. in our country, studies focused more on the analysis of the dimension of domestic violence, and less on the analysis of the costs generated by this phenomenon. however, an analysis of these costs was carried out in 2014 by the european institute for gender equality, which estimated the costs of gender-based violence in the european union. for this study i will use administrative data at the national level, which come from local entities with responsibilities in preventing and combating domestic violence. the study i propose will be an analysis of secondary data provided by authorities while also containing comparative methods (compared to 2020, the year of the covid-19 pandemic). the results will describe the evolution of the costs generated by domestic violence during the pandemic, a period that worsened access to support services for victims of domestic violence. there are opinions that question the adequacy of the romanian system in providing support to victims during the pandemic restrictions or to those who had difficulties in asking for help. measures taken by the authorities to limit the spread of the covid-19 pandemic were of general application, with specific ones having been implemented later, but even then their individualization was difficult, since each social field had a different response to this new context. keywords: domestic violence, cost, victim of domestic violence, covid-19, budget. studiul își propune să analizeze evoluția costurilor generate de violență domestică, din spațiul românesc în pandemia de covid-19. costul generat de violență nu este bine evidențiat în bugetele româniei, dar există metode care pot fi folosite pentru a-l cuantifica. în țara noastră, studiile s-au concentrat pe analiza dimensiunii violenței domestice, și mai puțin pe analiza costurilor generate de acest fenomen. dar o analiză a acestor costuri a fost făcută în 2014 de institutul european pentru egalitatea de gen, care a estimat costurile violenței bazate pe gen în uniunea europeană. pentru acest studiu voi folosi datele administrative la nivel național, care provin de la entitățile locale cu atribuții în prevenirea și combaterea violenței domestice. studiul pe care îl propun va fi o analiză a datelor secundare furnizate de autorități, dar va conține și metode comparative (față de 2020, anul pandemiei covid-19). rezultatele vor descrie evoluția costurilor generate de violența domestică în timpul pandemiei, perioadă care a înrăutățit accesul la servicii de suport, al victimelor violențelor domestice. sunt opinii care pun la îndoială adecvarea sistemului românesc în acordarea de sprijin victimelor în timpul restricțiilor pandemiei sau care au avut dificultăți în a cere ajutor. măsurile luate de autorități pentru limitarea răspândirii pandemiei de covid-19, au fost cu aplicabilitate generală, ulterior fiind implementate unele specifice, dar și atunci individualizarea lor a fost dificilă, pentru că fiecare domeniu social a avut un răspuns diferit la acest nou context. 1 corina drăgan id orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5783-1396 e-mail: dragancorina102@yahoo.ro https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5783-1396 2 theoretical and scientifical journal cuvinte-cheie: violență domestică, cost, victimă a violenței domestice, covid-19, buget. целью исследования является анализ эволюции издержек, связанных с насилием в семье в румынии во время пандемии covid-19. стоимость насилия недостаточно отражена в бюджетах румынии, но существуют методы, которые можно использовать для ее количественной оценки. в нашей стране исследования были сосредоточены на анализе масштабов домашнего насилия и в меньшей степени на анализе издержек, связанных с этим явлением. в 2014 году европейский институт гендерного равенства оценил издержки гендерного насилия в европейском союзе. для данного исследования использовались административные данные на национальном уровне, поступающие от местных организаций, отвечающих за предотвращение и борьбу с насилием в семье. исследование представляет собой анализ вторичных данных, предоставленных властями, а также содержит сравнительные методы (по сравнению с 2020 годом, годом пандемии covid-19). результаты представляют динамику расходов, связанных с домашним насилием во время пандемии, когда ухудшился доступ к службам поддержки для жертв домашнего насилия. есть мнения, которые ставят под сомнение адекватность румынской системы оказания поддержки пострадавшим во время пандемических ограничений или тем, кому было трудно обратиться за помощью. меры, предпринятые властями для ограничения распространения пандемии covid-19, носили общий характер, позже были реализованы конкретные меры, но их индивидуализация была затруднена, поскольку каждое социальное поле по-разному реагировало на этот новый контекст. ключевые слова: домашнее насилие, стоимость, жертва домашнего насилия, covid 19, бюджет. introduction in romania, domestic violence is defined as "any inaction or intentional action of physical, sexual, psychological, economic, social, spiritual or cyber violence, which occurs in the family or domestic environment or between spouses or ex-spouses, as well as between current or former partners, regardless of whether the aggressor lives or has lived with the victim” (romani et al., 2018). an important step towards preventing and combating domestic violence was the signing of the council of europe convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence (council of europe convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence istanbul convention) by romania on 27.06.2014. the approach continued with the ratification of the istanbul convention by law no. 30/2016, this stage representing the beginning of the legislative reforms that ensured the harmonization of the national normative acts, incidents in this field, with the provisions of the convention. on june 18, 2018, the romanian parliament adopted two very important draft laws in preventing and combating domestic violence, which practically represented the true implementation of the provisions of the istanbul convention. the two projects aimed at amending and supplementing law 202/2002 on equal opportunities and treatment between women and men (which regulates the concept of gender-based violence) and specifically amending and supplementing law 217/2003 on preventing and combating domestic violence (with the central pillar on the regulation of the emergency ban order, as provided for in article 52 of the council of europe convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence). in the “assessing the costs of violence against women in romania” report (dragan, 2021) it was mentioned that in romania, the studies focused on the analysis of the dimension of domestic violence and less on the analysis of the costs generated by this phenomenon. but an analysis of these costs was made in 2014 by the european institute for gender equality, which estimated the costs of gender-based violence in the european union. the methodological report used two strategies: the first was to build in detail, piece by piece for each of the main types of costs, and the second strategy was to estimate costs across the eu based on extrapolation from the member state case which has 3 economy and sociology the best evidence to support the costing exercise (the eu mutual learning programme in gender equality methodologies and good practices on assessing the costs of violence against women online 7-8 july 2021, f.a.). the report has compiled a european ranking of spending on gender discrimination and violence for each of the eu-28 states. (fig.1). figure 1. estimated costs of domestic violence in eu member states data source: european institute for gender equality report degree of topic approach in scientific literature at the international level, the assessment of the costs of domestic violence has different approaches, being largely influenced by policies specific to the national and international context. therefore, there is no general calculation model valid for all states that are interested in identifying this type of cost. for a better understanding of the situation at the international level, were analyzed the studies carried out since 1997, which tried to identify a model that could determine the costs generated by domestic violence as accurately as possible. the analysis of the studies showed that not 0 5 10 15 20 25 germany france uk italy spain poland romania netherlands greece belgium portugal czech republic hungary sweden austria bulgaria denmark slovakia finland ireland croatia lithuania slovenia latvia estonia cyprus luxembourg malta the cost of domestic violence(billion €) the cost of domestic violence against women(billion €) 4 theoretical and scientifical journal only the way in which domestic violence is defined has become more and more complex over the years, but also the way in which costs are assessed and even the cost categories have become much better determined or determinable. figure 2. the evolution of the meaning of the term domestic violence dutch model in 1997 the "economic costs of domestic violence against women" study conducted in 1997 by dirk j. korf, h. meulenbeek, h., e. mot, e. and t. van den brandt, the perpetrators considered a certain type of violence, namely that against women and exercised by their life partner, and the situations identified referred to threats or other acts such as those of a physical and psychological nature. the data considered in the study were collected between 1996 and 1997, and the information came from various agencies and service providers. he said that the data was underestimated because only the situations exposed by the victims of domestic violence that were registered by the shelters and support institutions were considered. in identifying the costs of domestic violence, it considered the following cost categories: ➢ medical assistance (family doctor and hospitals). ➢ psychosocial care. ➢ law enforcement (criminal justice sector and police). ➢ employment (medical leave). ➢ social insurance (payments of allowances/rent reduction). swiss model in 1999 and 2013 the „report of the economic costs of violence against women” study carried out by authors carrie yodanis and alberto godenzi, in 1999 referred to the situation in switzerland. the definition threat or physical or mental aggression against a female partner or expartner (tr.a.). abusive and aggressive behavior between intimate members of household and/or between former partners (tr.a.) physical, psychological and sexual violence commited by a male against his female partner (tr. a.) violence against women by former or current partners: physical, psychological and sexual violence (tr. a) 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 2 n e th e rla n d s u .k . s w itz e rla n d m a ce d o n ia n o rw a y violence in close relationships, including physical and sexual violence, genital mutilation, psychological violence, threats of violence, social violence (isolation), and economic violence (control of resources) against women, men, boys and girls, by a current or former partner in an intimate relationship, by a parent or other family member, close relative or caregiver.(tr.a) 5 economy and sociology of the type of violence considered by the report included the physical, psychological, and sexual violence perpetrated by a person against their female partner. data collection was done through a national survey and official statistics provided by various sources. a 12-month prevalence rate of 11.3% was used to approximate the number of incidents per year. in identifying the costs of domestic violence, it considered the following cost categories: ➢ medical care ➢ support and counseling ➢ victim-oriented financial support ➢ criminal justice sector ➢ research in their 2013 „coûts de la violence dans les relations de couple” research report, juliane fliedner, stephanie schwab, susanne stern, rolf iten (juliane et al., 2013), made a much more complex in relation to the study. the study includes violence in relationships between heterosexual and homosexual partners, both physically, sexually, or psychologically, and even integrates children as direct or indirect victims. both legally constituted relationships (marriages) and consensual relationships (in the form of cohabitation) are considered and even if in the meantime a process of separation between partners has taken place. the report is based on official statistics and various other sources. the annual cost calculation was based on 2011 data, or an annual average. the most important sources of data were given by the police (from their interventions), from the centers and shelters that provide specific services, both at cantonal and federal level. the limits of their research were some gaps in the available data on legal proceedings, the transfer between health and social care, and the decrease or even loss of productivity. in some costing areas, the data collected relates to domestic violence in general, rather than partner violence. in such cases, it has been estimated that intimate partner violence accounts for 70% of all domestic violence cases. they also concluded that these calculations were most likely to be underestimated because they did not include all categories of costs due to lack of data in civil proceedings, child and adult protection services, support services for affected children, and health care costs for children affected and for men in terms of mental health services. the report divides cost categories as follows: costs per sector: ➢ police and justice (police, prosecutor's office, courts, criminal justice system) ➢ victim and aggressor assistance services (victim and aggressor counseling centers, emergency assistance, financial compensation, shelter) ➢ specialized and coordinating agencies (federal level, cantonal level) ➢ health care services (physical consequences, psychological consequences) ➢ loss of productivity: illness (paid/unpaid), disability (paid/unpaid), death (unpaid) types of costs: ➢ tangible direct costs (e.g., police interventions) ➢ tangible indirect costs (e.g., loss of earnings, profit, and economic value) ➢ intangible costs (e.g., loss of quality of life) finland model in 2001-2002 and 2021 study was conducted by authors m. heiskanen and m. piispa, in 2001-2002, in the works “the price of violence. the costs of men’s violence against women in finland” (heiskanen, 2002) and “the costs of violence in a municipality”(council of europe, 2012; heiskanen, 2002). both 2001 and 2002 studies consider the same type of violence: violence against women, with a focus on violence committed by the partner. the data used for the 2001 study was based on a survey of 7,000 women, an earlier study called "faith, hope, and strike," conducted by the same authors. other data sources were also: statistics provided by the government, databases and agencies' budgets, activity 6 theoretical and scientifical journal reports, etc; interviews with experts to obtain the percentage of attendance at the support service for women victims of violence; two case studies. in terms of cost categories, there are considerable differences between the two studies, as follows: 2001: ➢ direct costs: health, including visits to the doctor, hospital care and medicine. shelters, crisis services, social assistance, therapy, police, trials, prison. ➢ indirect costs: deaths or those that use the human capital approach. 2002: ➢ social sector: shelters, home services, childcare services, schools, emergency aid, social assistance provided by churches, family counseling clinics. ➢ healthcare sector: including hospital and ambulance, patient transport and psychiatric as well as psychological treatment in health centers. ➢ criminal justice sector: police, legal aid office, criminal prosecution, courts, prison, mediation. a new study was conducted in 2021 by heli siltala and tomomi hisasue, in the "assessing the costs of violence against women in finland” country report (siltala & hisasue, 2021), held at the “methodologies and good practices on assessing the costs of violence against women” international seminar, finland, 8-9 july 2021. tomomi hisasue of the university of tampere and heli siltala of the university of jyväskylä stated the methodological challenges for assessing the costs of domestic violence on how to identify all victims and assess direct and indirect costs, such as lost productivity, quality of life impact, even between generations in their paper. they noted that there is no perfect standard for estimating costs. among the gaps in information collection, they identified that administrative data, such as hospital records, can allow for a long-term impact assessment, but inadequate medical coding systems and under-reporting are a challenge. in addition, the need to protect data to comply with gdpr standards can be very costly and time consuming. surveys often underestimate the prevalence and cost of underreporting victims or not identifying all the services used. study data included various measures for the use of health services, reflecting both immediate and long-term health effects. however, the study did not include costs for the justice system or the social services system. the cost categories considered in the study were: ➢ medical treatment for physical injuries related to violence. ➢ hospital stays. ➢ use of primary health care services. ➢ use of mental health services. ➢ medicines for mental health. swedish model, in 2006 and 2021 this study was conducted by elis envall and annika eriksson in the "costs of violence against women" paper (envall & eriksson, 2006). the type of violence considered in the analysis was violence against women by their intimate partner. the data used in the study were official statistics held by the swedish national council on crime and prevention, government agencies or structures funded or co-financed by local governments, the national health council and the epidemiology center's own welfare registry and even data obtained by applying questionnaires to women housed in shelters and crisis centers of local authorities. the cost categories considered were as follows: ➢ expenditure of society for health and healthcare, police, prosecutor, courts, penitentiary, and social services, as well as costs for civil society (shelters for women and other volunteer organizations) and costs for business/employers. ➢ expenditure of central government agencies to reduce the effects of violence and try to counter it, as well as all preventive measures. 7 economy and sociology ➢ expenses incurred by each woman victim for herself, her children and all those close to her, in the sense of trying to determine how these costs were affected in relation to the present or future situation. ➢ indirect costs due to decreased productivity. ➢ transfers, i.e., resource flows: sickness benefits, insurance, social assistance, and compensation for victims of crimes induced by violence. costs for dental services, medicines, mental health care, harm to children, pain and suffering were not calculated for the study. a new study was conducted in 2021 by petra ornstein (statistician) and åsa eldén (sociologist), in the “a coherent understanding of the costs of men’s violence against women” paper (petra & åsa, 2021) presented at the “methodologies and good practices on assessing the costs of violence against women” international seminar, finland, 8-9 july 2021. the paper analyzes the costs from the perspective of the value of a life without gender violence, to include the expenses of victims of violence, who will never return their previous ability to produce and participate, as well as their quality of life. therefore, the cost categories considered by the authors in the study were as follows: ➢ direct answers / interventions of the company. ➢ loss of productivity by victims of violence. ➢ loss of quality of life for victims of violence. ➢ freedom lost due to risk reduction options. model of macedonia in 2006 the main author of the study was yordanka gancheva, who in 2006 completed the paper "the costs of domestic violence against women in the former yugoslav republic of macedonia: a costing exercise for 2006" the paper analyzed costs generated by domestic violence against women by former or current partners: physical, psychological, and sexual violence. the data used for the study were from official statistics and budgetary information sources; questionnaires sent to institutions dealing with domestic violence issues concerning ngos and donors, which provided information such as budgets, number of services, number of victims registered, etc; interviews with public employees (social workers, police officers, prosecutors, judges), doctors (psychologists, dentists, gynecologists, etc.) and representatives of ngos; interviews with 50 victims. the cost categories considered were: estimated costs: ➢ estimating costs determined by the criminal justice and the social system (personnel costs, costs for vehicle fuel and depreciation as well as some basic administrative costs such as communications, printing, copying, etc.). ➢ estimating the costs of the non-governmental sector, respectively the costs for the direct services offered to the victims, awareness through campaigns, training and policy making. direct costs: ➢ social services social assistance centers and ngo services, including counseling, shelter, legal counseling, etc; telephone lines for victims of domestic violence, awareness campaigns. ➢ criminal and justice sector time allotted by the police to deal with domestic violence registration of complaints, response to appeals, making arrests, time allotted for carrying out the necessary acts to judge the case, etc.; prosecution; the criminal court; civil court etc. the analysis did not include the costs of the health sector, the costs of the ministry of labor and social affairs for monitoring and policy development, the costs borne by the victims themselves and a wide range of costs that were not measurable. 8 theoretical and scientifical journal u.k. model in 2004 and 2009 the study conducted in 2004 on the situation in the u.k., was conducted by sylvia walby, in her book "the costs of domestic violence" (walby, f.a.). the research estimated the cost of domestic violence through state spending, employers, and men and women who were affected by these situations. the methodology was based on the ministry of the interior's system for determining the costs of crime, including the specific costs of domestic violence. the cost estimate provided an additional perspective for examining the devastating consequences of domestic violence for both society and victims. the cost categories considered were as follows: ➢ expenses from the criminal justice system: the cost of domestic violence for the criminal justice system (the largest component is that of the police. other components include prosecution, courts, probation, imprisonment, and legal aid); ➢ healthcare expenses: the costs of the family medicine system and hospitals, because of physical injuries, but also of mental health care. ➢ social service costs: costs for children are higher than for adults, especially for those victimized by domestic violence and child abuse. ➢ expenses for shelter insurance: expenses for emergency housing include costs for local authorities and housing associations for housing homeless people due to domestic violence. ➢ expenses incurred by the realization of the civil legal system includes both specialized legal actions, such as orders to detain or expel a violent partner, as well as actions such as divorce and child custody. ➢ economic costs: medical leave. sylvia walby is also the one who in 2009 conducted a new study focusing on the costs of domestic violence, the work entitled "the cost of domestic violence: up-date 2009" (walby, 2009). the type of violence under study was domestic violence, in terms of physical, psychological, and sexual violence, both in relation to the aggressors who were current or former intimate partners. the data used for the study were cases of domestic violence registered at the level of central institutions, reports of the department of transport, information of the service agency, reports that include information on the degree of use of services by those affected by domestic violence, and the cost (per unit) of these services, the findings of previous research. the cost categories considered were those in: ➢ services: criminal justice (police, prosecutor's office, courts, probation, and prisons), medical care (physical and mental health), social services (child-related costs), housing and shelter (cost of local emergency authority, housing, and shelter), and civil legal costs (costs of lawyers and orders). ➢ loss of productivity and earnings for employers and employees: e.g., sick leave due to injuries related to domestic violence. ➢ pain and suffering: based on the notion that people could be paid to stop suffering humanly and emotionally. the study does not consider additional productivity losses due to stress and reduced performance, nor the long-term effects on children. model of spain in 2010 and 2021 in spain, elizabeth villagómez is the author of “the economic and social costs of domestic violence against women in andalusia” (the eu mutual learning programme in gender equality methodologies and good practices on assessing the costs of violence against women online 7-8 july 2021, f.a.) (villagómez, 2010), a study that analyzed the costs of domestic violence in andalusia in 2010. the type of violence analyzed in the study included domestic violence against women by an intimate partner or former partner. the data on which the analysis was based were obtained through a survey of 300 women victims of violence perpetrated by a partner or ex-partner. in establishing cost categories, the author developed a system of indicators on domestic violence, over 100 indicators, 9 economy and sociology structured around six criteria: severity and prevalence, impact on victims, risk factors, institutional and social response, access and use victim-oriented services and social perception and attitudes. the annual costs were: ➢ direct costs (resources used by victims) ➢ indirect costs (the value of goods and services that have been abandoned due to violence, affecting the well-being of the victim and society as a whole). in 2021, a new study was conducted by authors luis f. rivera-galicia, elena mañas-alcón, maría teresa gallo-rivera and óscar montes-pineda, in the paper entitled “assessing the costs of violence against women in spain” (rivera-galicia et al., 2019), held during the “methodologies and good practices on assessing the costs of violence against women” international seminar, finland, 8-9 july 2021. the current data are obtained from the macro-survey on violence against women, which is the most relevant statistic on violence against women in spain. it is carried out every 4 years since 1999. since 2011 it has been managed by the government delegation for gender violence and since 2015 it has been carried out together with the spanish center for sociological research. the study includes: ➢ tangible direct costs (related to the monetary value of goods and services, expenses for the prevention and treatment of the effects of violence). ➢ tangible indirect costs (referring to resources that are lost due to reduced economic activity or loss of income due to higher inactivity of women or unemployment caused by sexual violence). ➢ mode of denmark in 2010 and 2021 the study was conducted by karin helweg-larsen, marie kruse, jan sørensen and henrik brønnum-hansen in 2010, and was entitled "the cost of violence: economic and personal dimensions of violence against women in denmark" (kruse et al., 2011). the study includes two samples of the population of women exposed to violence: the sample was obtained from data based on 20,482 women aged 16-64, who in the 2002-2005 period reported a situation of violence to the police or died because of the violence and/or contacted the emergency department because of the violence. also including women in shelters who report cases of violence to the police or have contacted the emergency department; the second sample is based on data provided by the danish health system and a morbidity surveys in 2000 and 2005, which included questions about exposure to violence in the last 12 months. in addition, data on the socio-economic condition, contacts with healthcare and the consequences on the labor market and data recorded by social services were introduced. the cost categories considered were: ➢ costs of the judicial system of the police, in situations reported as violence against women: consumption of time at the police, prosecutor's office and courts combined with specific salaries and court fees, as well as prison and court fees. ➢ crisis center costs: shelter rates and number of accommodations per year. ➢ costs for society: including the national budget allocated to initiatives initiated under the danish national action plans to combat violence against women, 2002-2009. in 2021, marie kruse returns with a new study, entitled “data on the cost of violence and identification of violence victims in denmark”(kruse et al., 2011), held at the “methodologies and good practices on assessing the costs of violence against women” international seminar, finland, 8-9 july 2021. the study makes recommendations on how to quantify the costs of domestic violence, so: ➢ by using a comparison group so that unrelated costs are not falsely considered the costs of violence. ➢ by applying a longer time horizon, the costs of violence are often borne later. the period should be of at least 1-2 years, and the analysis should also include the effects on children and general health for a much longer timespan. 10 theoretical and scientifical journal ➢ mentioning self-reported violence which is very different from violence recorded by emergencies, shelters, and police. ➢ mentioning gender-based violence which is equally important and therefore data for both genders should be collected to allow comparison between men and women. more men than women are victims of violence, but violence against men is of a different nature (most often by a stranger). model of france in 2010 the study was conducted in 2012 by marc nectoux, claude mugnier, s baffert, bertrand thélot as well as m. albagli and is entitled "an economic evaluation of intimate partner violence in france" (nectoux et al., 2010). direct costs were analyzed through: a micro-level analysis based on interviews with experts (responsible for childcare and accommodation, telephone helplines, departmental observatory for combating partner violence); at the mid-level they used data from national medical facilities, social, administrative and legal records (institutional reports, national registers) and allowed a national cost estimate; and at the macro level by exploiting national and international economic databases (public spending budgets on health, justice and police, social services, economic cost and gdp, taken from eurostat). the cost categories considered for analysis were: ➢ loss of social utility generated by violence. ➢ costs for the health system: direct medical costs (drug use, consultations, etc.). ➢ costs for the forensic and social sector: use of police and justice (budget of penitentiary administration, police, and criminal proceedings related to convictions); use of social services (costs related to shelters in the case of a separated couple, housing benefits, benefits for single parents, costs related to termination of employment, situation directly attributed to intimate partner violence). ➢ loss of productivity: loss of production due to deaths, incarceration, and absenteeism. ➢ loss of quality of life: psychological and human costs, human costs of rape and injuries (the phenomenon of deteriorating daily quality of life of women victims of mood disorders, intense fatigue, sleep problems, costs of indirect effects through a decrease in future income caused declining productivity (disability, death), costs related to declining living standards resulting from separation and intangible costs). model of norway in 2012 the report was co-authored by ingeborg rasmussen, steinar strøm, sidsel sverdrup and haakon vennemo, and the title of the paper was “samfunnsøkonomiske kostnader av vold i nære relasjoner” (rasmussen et al., f.a.). the report covered the following types of violence: domestic violence, including physical and sexual violence, genital mutilation, psychological violence, threats of violence, social violence (isolation) and economic violence (resource control), violence against women, men, boys, girls, violence perpetrated by a current or former intimate partner in a relationship, by a parent or other family member, close relative, or caregiver. data used in the report are obtained from estimates from official statistics and budgetary information sources from 2010. the study uses data from the legal field (police, justice, criminal justice, legal aid), health sector (emergency care, long-term care) as well as in the social sector (support services and social benefits). crime victims, children's advocacy centers and ngos. the authors concluded that the calculations are most likely to be underestimated due to underreporting domestic violence and difficulty in estimating socioeconomic costs. the cost categories were as follows: ➢ costs per sector: police; 11 economy and sociology justice (prosecutor's office, children's law centers, courts, correctional services, mediation); health care services (medical care, psychological care); support services (crisis centers, family therapy centers, child protection service, treatment centers, telephone helpline); education and training (norwegian center for violence and traumatic stress, regional center for violence, traumatic stress and suicide prevention, research funding); other ministries and state institutions (ministry of health and care services, directorate of health, ministry of education and research, ministry of children, equality and social inclusion, directorate of children, youth and family, business, ministry of justice); ➢ taxes (marginal cost of public funds); ➢ loss of labor productivity (inability to work); ➢ lives lost. at european level, there has been a growing interest in domestic violence following the adoption of the european parliament resolution of 26 november 2009 on the elimination of violence against women. the studies revealed to the authorities the economic dimension of the phenomenon of domestic violence, but also the negative social repercussions, which entail imbalances at individual, group or even community level. studies have also shown that in assessing the costs of violence, we must not limit ourselves only to the direct costs, which are quite well highlighted by the authorities through the statistical data they have, but also indirect costs, which are equally important and may have mediumand long-term implications. purpose of research at european level, there was a growing interest in domestic violence following the adoption of the european parliament resolution of 26 november 2009 on the elimination of violence against women. the studies revealed to the authorities the economic dimension of the phenomenon of domestic violence, but also the negative social repercussions, which entail imbalances at individual, group or even community level. studies have also shown that in assessing the costs of violence, we must not limit ourselves only to the direct costs, which are quite well highlighted by the authorities through the statistical data they have, but also indirect costs, which are equally important and may have medium and long term implications, as stated by zamfir elena “in the conditions of severe limitation of financial and human resources, a correct prioritization of needs was extremely important for active measures to reduce and prevent new social risks for vulnerable people and groups” the negative effects of the phenomenon of domestic violence are extremely difficult to identify on a personal level, primarily on the background of poor education, a situation that leads to a poor understanding of individual rights, but also a poor promotion of services that may benefit victims of such crime. in romania, most social services dedicated to victims of domestic violence are public and are either subordinated to the general directorates of social assistance and child protection at county level/sectors of bucharest or subordinated to the public directorates of social assistance at the level of town halls or are private and are managed by economic operators or non-governmental organizations licensed as such service providers. these services are not uniformly located in the territory, in the sense that we do not find a minimum package of support services for victims of domestic violence, which can be accessed in each locality. they were set up according to the budgets of each territorial administrative unit, but also to the potential to access dedicated lines with european funding (http://ithub.gov.ro/2016/11/25/harta-serviciilor-sociale-licentiate/). unfortunately, this situation has created discrimination, being of course advantaged in relation to the ease of accessibility of services, victims of domestic violence who live in urban areas, even large urban (municipalities) that offer most, but also the most diverse dedicated social support services http://ithub.gov.ro/2016/11/25/harta-serviciilor-sociale-licentiate/ 12 theoretical and scientifical journal dedicated (counseling and information centers, shelters, sheltered housing, emergency reception centers, recovery centers for victims of domestic violence, etc.). methodology of research starting from the cost analysis models of other authors mentioned in the first part of the study, i was able to outline my own research methodology, which would be based on the system of social support services at the national level. the analysis considers only the direct costs, the indirect ones to be analyzed in another research. therefore, this research will be quantitative and will follow the previously mentioned analysis models, focusing on direct, tangible costs, related to the expenses incurred by the services for treatment/removal of the effects of violence, provided through licensed social structures, according to law, in this purpose. this study will not cover the costs of preventing domestic violence. in romania, it is very difficult to use a model for estimating the costs caused by domestic violence. however, in the social sector there is a system of centralization of cases of domestic violence, through a bottom-up transmission, respectively from the local level to the level of the central structures. at the same time, we can estimate the costs in the case report, given the fact that all the social services provided to victims of domestic violence were standardized by government decision no. 426 of 27 may 2020 on the approval of cost standards for social services. to determine the structures that have such attributions of data collection and transmission, we studied the national legislation, as well as the organization and functioning regulations according to table1. table 1 list of structures and authorities responsible for collecting data in the field of domestic violence no. structure name structure type legal provision 1. general directorates of social assistance and child protection structure with legal personality at county level gd no.49/2011 (government of romania, 2011): „employees of the monitoring department within the d.g.a.s.p.c. complete the appropriate summary sheets (for example, the summary sheet for child abuse and neglect, the summary sheet for cases of labor exploitation and children at risk of labor exploitation, sexual exploitation, child trafficking, summary sheet cases of child trafficking, domestic and cross-border) and send them to the mlfps dgpc; based on the summary sheets, compiles statistical data on situations of violence against children and domestic violence;” g.d. no. 797/2017 (government of romania, 2017) „8. compiles the database regarding the cases of domestic violence and reports at county level and respectively at the level of the sectors of the bucharest municipality and reports these data quarterly to the national agency for equal opportunities between women and men;” 2. local intersectoral teams county level structures, without legal personality, constituted by county council decisions, whose members can be: 1. general directorate of social work and g.d. no .49/2011 (government of romania, 2011) „c) annually analyzes statistical data compiled by the d.g.a.s.p.c. on child abuse and neglect, children exploited and at risk of labor exploitation, children victims of trafficking in persons, children victims of other forms of violence in other states and domestic violence” „e) prepares biannual reports on the activity in the field of prevention and combating violence against children and domestic violence, based on the analysis of statistical 13 economy and sociology child protection (dgaspc); 2. county police inspectorate/general police directorate of the bucharest municipality and sectoral police units; 3. the county gendarmerie inspectorate/general directorate of gendarmes of the bucharest municipality; 4. county public health directorate/bucharest municipality public directorate; 5. county school inspectorate/ bucharest municipality general school inspectorate; 6. territorial labor inspectorate; 7. non-governmental organizations. data, good practices collected and other relevant information;” 3. national authority for the rights of persons with disabilities, children and adoption central level structure, with legal personality, subordinated to the ministry of labor and social protection g.d. no.49/2011 (government of romania, 2011) c) at central level, the m.m.f.p.s. d.g.p.c. has the following obligations: 1. centralizes data received from the d.g.a.s.p.c. on the whole issue of violence against children, based on the above-mentioned summary sheets; 2. prepares annual reports on child violence and domestic violence, based on e.i.l. and of the monitoring compartments within the d.g.a.s.p.c .; 3. contributes to the preparation of country reports on various forms of violence against children and domestic violence; 4. makes proposals for changes in legislation and policies in the field. g.d. no. 1002/2019 art.4 „g) collects, processes and disseminates statistical data in the areas of competence;” 4. national agency for equal opportunities for women and men central level structure, with legal personality, subordinated to the ministry of labor and social protection g.d. no.177/2016 (government of romania, 2016) art.4 „d) collects statistical data according to law no. 226/2009 on organization and functioning of official statistics in romania, as subsequently amended and supplemented, prepares reports, studies, analyzes and forecasts on applying the principle of equal opportunities and treatment between women and men, in all areas of activity;” according to regulations in force, in romania, any natural or legal person can report the existence of a situation of domestic violence. the general directorates of social work and child protection (d.g.a.s.p.c.) at county level and respectively each sector of bucharest, through the 14 theoretical and scientifical journal “domestic violence department” (government of romania, 2017), have attributions such as “identify risk situations for the parties involved in violence situations domestic and directs the parties to specialized/mediation services; compiles the database on cases of domestic violence at county level, respectively at the level of the sectors of the bucharest municipality and reports these data quarterly to the national agency for equal opportunities between women and men (...) ”. through this study we identified several limitations of the system for collecting data on cases of domestic violence: ➢ public and private structures at local and county level transmit these data to d.g.a.s.p.c. which centralizes them, but due to the general data protection regulation, there is no victim identification data, so sometimes the same victim can be reported by several structures (for example a victim can report to the police about her situation, can benefit medical or social support, and the dgaspc may register the case three times, even if it is the same victim); ➢ data is interpreted and collected differently from a d.g.a.s.p.c. to another (there is no unitary practice of understanding the reporting methodology). ➢ data are insufficient and do not reveal much information on medium and long term situation of victims, nor data on costs of domestic violence information collected: distribution of victims of domestic violence (cases) by age groups, sexes, home; distribution of victims of domestic violence (cases) by citizenship and ethnicity; distribution of victims of domestic violence (cases) by level of education, in the reported period; distribution of victims of domestic violence (cases) by occupation, income and ownership of the home, during the reported period; distribution of victims of domestic violence (cases) by marital status, during the reported period; distribution of victims of domestic violence (cases) according to the victim's relationship with the family aggressor, during the reported period; distribution of victims of domestic violence (cases) by type of violence, in the reported period; distribution of victims of domestic violence (cases) by types of violence according to the frequency of aggression, during the reported period; services benefited by victims of domestic violence; legal proceedings initiated or withdrawn by victims of domestic violence during the reported period; risk associated with domestic violence during the reported period. in this study, we chose to only estimate the costs of accessing housing services for victims of domestic violence, using data collected on services that benefited victims of domestic violence housing. however, the accommodation is seen as a complex of services that benefit the victims and not just housing. the cost standard provided by h.g. 426/2020 for residential centers is established differently depending on the type of service provided respectively: for emergency centers (ministry of labor and social justice, 2019) (shelters) the standard cost/year/beneficiary is 26,775 lei; for recovery centers for victims of domestic violence (ministry of labor and social justice, 2019) the standard cost/year/beneficiary is 34,167 lei; for sheltered housing for victims of domestic violence (ministry of labor and social justice, 2019) the standard cost/year/beneficiary is 34,167 lei. because the data collected does not specifically identify in which type of residential center the victim was housed, we estimated the cost/victim/accommodation as an average of the cost standard for the three types of centers mentioned above, resulting in a cost average of 31,703 lei. average cost/center/year = cpru+crvvf+lp = 26775 +34167 +34167 = 31.703 lei 3 3 in analyzing annual costs, we multiplied the number of cases per year by the average cost standard for residential (hosting) centers, using the calculation formula below and where cvd is the cost of domestic violence per year, cv represents the number of cases, cpru represents the cost standard for the emergency reception center, crvvf represents the cost standard for the recovery center for victims of domestic violence, and lp represents the cost standard for sheltered housing. 15 economy and sociology cvd=cv * (cpru+crvvf+lp) 3 were also identified factors that can affect cost estimation using this method, for example: ➢ cost standard is set per year, but a victim can benefit from this service for a period of several days, weeks or months and not necessarily a full year. ➢ cost standard is a minimum, indicative amount, because each county council can supplement the funds allocated to these services, to ensure services of a higher quality. ➢ standard cost does not include all direct and indirect costs. ➢ the analysis of the evolution of the costs generated by domestic violence was of longitudinal type, i.e., were compared the data from the years 2018, 2019, 2020, while the benchmark for the period of the covid 19 pandemic was the year 2020. main results in 2020, the year of the covid 19 pandemic, there were 24% fewer cases of domestic violence than in 2019 (fig.3). these figures also don't mean that there were fewer cases of violence in the year of the pandemic, but rather that there were fewer cases reported. unfortunately, the measures to limit the spread of the covid 19 pandemic, ordered by the authorities since march 2020, have made it difficult for the victims, who in order to protect themselves, would have wanted to leave their homes, this most often being the place where most violence types are exercised. also, travel ban measures made it even more difficult to access the support services dedicated to them, which, as i mentioned earlier, are often condensed in large urban areas. figure 3. the dynamics of cases of victims of domestic violence and the use of accommodation services data source: national agency for equal opportunities for women and men a similar situation is registered regarding the number of victims of domestic violence who chose to benefit from hosting services in 2020, the percentage being 22% lower than in 2019. measures imposed by the authorities to limit the spread of the covid pandemic 19 had effects not only on the reporting of domestic violence cases (and thus the figures are below the real ones), but 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 victime ale violenței domestice victime găzduite în centre 2018 2019 2020 16 theoretical and scientifical journal also on the decisions to use the services offered in these situations. implicitly, the costs generated by hosting victims of domestic violence in 2020 are 22% lower than in 2019. using the above calculation formula, we may be able to determine the costs of hosting services for victims of domestic violence. considering the last 5 years, the highest costs were in 2018, subsequently decreasing in 2019 and 2020. the decrease recorded in 2019 was not caused by the pandemic, since there were no cases of covid-19 infections in romania in that period. in 2018, on july 13, 2018, the romanian parliament adopted law no. 174/2018 amending and supplementing law no. 217/2003 to prevent and combat domestic violence, published in the official gazette no. 618 of july 18, 2018. „new regulation creates a victim-centered approach and the development of measures to prevent acts of domestic violence (psychological counseling in cases of divorce with a history of domestic violence, monitoring of protection orders/measures to prevent their violation) and also, provides for emergency intervention measures in situations of immediate risk”(https://anes.gov.ro/legislatienationala-violenta-domestica/ ). some of the services received by victims of domestic violence have the costs covered by the center in which they are beneficiaries, for example accommodation, primary, social, legal, psychological counseling and even representation in court or obtaining medical documents attesting to the aggression (fig.4). to benefit from these facilities free of charge, victims of domestic violence must be the beneficiaries of support centers, as the amounts are covered by the licensed social service provider. figure 4. services provided to victims of domestic violence in 2019 and 2020 data source: national agency for equal opportunities for women and men from the analysis of the data and as shown in figure 3, i found a growing trend of victims of domestic violence to seek legal advice. these figures may be based on the decisions of the authorities to limit the spread of the covid 19 pandemic, through lockdown measures, periods of time in which the victims were forced to stay with the aggressor in the same house, a fact which led to a strong emotional imbalance because "by interacting with others, we perceive a reflected image from which we appropriate some of the perceptions of others" (fitzek, 2020). the statistical situation shows that in 2019, 24% more actions were taken to address judicial authorities, compared to 2020 (fig. 5). the trend is decreasing in most cases (for obtaining medical documents, reporting to the police, criminal complaints, protection orders, evacuation requests, 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2019 2020 https://anes.gov.ro/legislatie-nationala-violenta-domestica/ https://anes.gov.ro/legislatie-nationala-violenta-domestica/ 17 economy and sociology obtaining custody, divorce applications), except for procedures related to the maintenance pension and the visiting schedule of the child. the covid 19 pandemic caused an economic contraction, influenced primarily by the restriction or even closure of some economic activities, which generated the need to access money from various sources to cover financial needs, including actions to change the amount of the maintenance pension (increase or decrease). an explanation for the increase in actions regarding the modification of the child visitation schedule may also be since among the few exceptions to restrictions on the free movement of persons was "travel for justified reasons, such as child care/accompaniment", according to the provisions of art. 1 of the military ordinance no. 3 from 24.03.2020. figure 5. the legal proceedings situation in 2019 and 2020 data source: national agency for equal opportunities for women and men legal action can be taken both on behalf of the victims of domestic violence and by the authorities on their behalf. in this context, there are costs that do not involve costs (filing a criminal complaint), but also others that have costs due to the need to hire a lawyer (for example to obtain a protection order, evacuation of the aggressor, child custody, divorce, parental leave, child visitation schedule). conclusion regarding the methodological difficulties of the investigation, i found that in romania the data collected by the authorities may be distorted by situations such as double registration of cases, the reality of those declared by the victim/witnesses, different reporting methodologies, etc. it is also well known that domestic violence is rarely reported to the authorities, with the victim choosing not to disclose it. a disadvantage of romania's case is that there are still data that are not included in the statistics being treated globally, for example the expenses generated by the conviction of criminals, medical services etc. this approach to quantifying the costs of domestic violence is a challenge for any researcher, especially as each state has a different social and legislative context. however, efforts must be continued and supported primarily at the governmental level, especially after the adoption of legislative measures that have a major impact on society. such an approach may reflect whether the measures taken are optimal or 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