Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology ISSN: 2576-8484 Vol. 8, No. 6, 2261-2269 2024 Publisher: Learning Gate DOI: 10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2423 © 2024 by the authors; licensee Learning Gate © 2024 by the authors; licensee Learning Gate * Correspondence: svf-nb@ukr.net Causes and trends in modern geopolitical changes Kyrylo Budanov1*, Vasyl Vereshchak2, Volodymyr Kudriavtsev3, Sergii Mokliak4, Karina Rubel5 1Department of National Security and Political Science, Educational and Scientific Institute of International Relations and National Security, National University Ostroh Academy, Ostroh, Ukraine; svf-nb@ukr.net (K.B.). 2Department of Political Technology, Law Institute, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Kyiv, Ukraine; vvg1955@ukr.net (V.V.). 3Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine named after Hennadii Udovenko, Kyiv, Ukraine; kvo1976@i.ua (V.K.). 4Information Resources Center, Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine named after Hennadii Udovenko, Kyiv, Ukraine; smokliak@ukr.net (S.M.). 5Department of International Relations and Strategic Communications, Educational and Scientific Institute, Military Academy named after Yevgenіy Bereznyak, Kyiv, Ukraine; karinaroobel@gmail.com (K.R.). Abstract: In today's world, geopolitical transformations are gaining particular importance, creating new challenges and opportunities for countries. The article aims to identify the causes of geopolitical transformations and determine the main directions of their development. The research methodology involves a holistic approach to the economic development of the world economy, the study of the main geopolitical trends, and the assessment of the impact of military conflicts and competition in digital technologies. The study results revealed that the growth of the economic power of the new centres of power causes a redistribution of global economic resources. In turn, military conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and Israel, significantly affect international relations. The results revealed increased competition in digital technologies, affecting countries' global competitiveness. The study's practical significance lies in determining the strategic directions of the countries' development in the conditions of geopolitical transformation and providing recommendations to reduce the negative consequences of the economic slowdown. The article outlines the role of innovation and technological progress in maintaining economic stability and security. Several recommended measures are provided to increase the stability of national economies and strengthen international cooperation. The prospects for further research are developing political and economic strategies that consider the specifics of modern geopolitical processes. Keywords: Digital technologies, Economic development, Economic competition, Global stability, International relations, Military conflicts, New power centres, National security. 1. Introduction The transformation of the modern world is a complex and multifaceted process that reflects profound changes in economic, political and social structures. According to [1], in recent decades, we have observed a significant evolution of geopolitical forces, which is determined by traditional leader states and new centres of influence. The growth of the economic power of countries such as China and India significantly changes the balance of power, creating new opportunities for the international community. The relevant processes result from the complex impact of globalisation, technological progress and changes in international relations. Various factors, including economic interests, military power, and technological advances, determine global economic and political trends. The current transformation requires understanding and analysis to anticipate changes and adapt to new conditions. Increasing confrontation between countries is one of the critical features of modern geopolitical transformation. Traditional disputes over resources, territories and influence are supplemented by new factors of escalation related to economic competition and ideological differences. The author Podliesna mailto:svf-nb@ukr.net mailto:kvo1976@i.ua mailto:smokliak@ukr.net mailto:karinaroobel@gmail.com 2262 Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology ISSN: 2576-8484 Vol. 8, No. 6: 2261-2269, 2024 DOI: 10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2423 © 2024 by the authors; licensee Learning Gate [2] believes that the growing tension between the US and China in the economic sphere led to the introduction of tariffs and restrictions on technological exports, significantly affecting global trade relations. The war in Ukraine creates additional threats to international stability. The hostilities affect the directly involved countries and broadly impact regional and global security structures. The rise of populism in many countries leads to changes in foreign policy strategies, intensifying the confrontation between states. One of the most critical aspects of the modern transformation of the world is the formation of a new competitive market among digital technologies and a significant increase in investments in this area. According to [3], the development of information technologies opens up new opportunities for economic growth and increased production efficiency. The world's leading countries actively invest in developing digital infrastructure, creating innovative technology centres and supporting startups. This trend contributes to strengthening the scientific and technological base, which is critical for ensuring long-term competitiveness in the global market. According to World Bank forecasts, spending on digital transformation will grow, reaching several trillion dollars in 2025–2027. The intensive investment underlines the importance of digital technologies for today's economies and their potential to ensure sustainable development in the future. The flow of geopolitical processes in the modern world focuses on analysing economic, political and social factors contributing to changes in the global system of international relations. The importance of the problem in the modern geopolitical space is emphasised in work [4], where the need to analyse the growth of new power centres and their impact on the world order is indicated. The study [5] examines changes in international trade and economic relations, including the impact of trade wars and sanctions on the global economy. The article [6] focuses on potential conflicts between rising and dominant states and the conduct of proxy wars. According to [7], historical examples and modern geopolitical realities testify to the need for strategic planning to reduce the risk of conflicts. The scientist Alsagr et al. [8] analyses the changing trends of the international order, considering the growth of nationalism and populism. Hollis [9] emphasises that defence technology and digital infrastructure investments are critical to national security. According to [10], the development of democracy and international cooperation are vital factors for maintaining stability in the world. According to [11], changes in energy policy and transition to renewable energy sources affect geopolitical relations between countries. The author [12] points out the importance of socio-economic equality and its influence on states' internal and external policy. The scientist Khan [13] researches effective diplomacy in international relations and its role in forming modern geopolitics. An article [14] indicates that cultural and civilisational differences may become a source of conflicts in the future. The author Pinyol Alberich [15] believes that to respond to global challenges effectively, it is necessary to develop an interdisciplinary approach and international cooperation. The study [16] includes an assessment of the impact of economic crises on geopolitical stability and security. The article [17] aims to develop recommendations for a strategic response to the geopolitical challenges caused by the transformation of the modern world. The scientist Ramos et al. [18] believes that analysing the causes of economic and military confrontation between countries helps to understand the main directions of geopolitical changes. A scholar Mishra [19] argues that these confrontations combine traditional geopolitical conflicts with new energy and cyber security challenges. The author Nikonenko et al. [20] points to the effectiveness of using complex approaches to analyse international relations, including economic, political and technological factors that stimulate geopolitical changes. According to a study [21], an essential factor in developing strategic partnerships is strengthening international alliances and coalitions to increase stability and security. Analysis [22] shows that the flexibility of foreign policy and adaptation to new geopolitical conditions contribute to an effective response to global challenges. According to [23], the role of investment in digital technologies and infrastructure in the context of global competition must be considered due to the growing importance of the digital economy and innovation. Cvetićanin and Maksimović [24] forms modern approaches to strengthening national security through developing cyber security and technological 2263 Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology ISSN: 2576-8484 Vol. 8, No. 6: 2261-2269, 2024 DOI: 10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2423 © 2024 by the authors; licensee Learning Gate sovereignty. The author Bielialov et al. [25] highlights the successful experience of using international cooperation to solve global problems. The work [26] emphasises integrating innovative technologies into all aspects of national policy, from economy to defence. Therefore, scientists who research geopolitical transformation use an interdisciplinary approach that allows them to cover various aspects of international relations. Considering the dynamics of geopolitical changes and technological development, the importance of constantly monitoring global trends and their impact on national and international security arises. The article's research aims to analyse the impact of geopolitical transformation on the modern world, identify the main reasons and directions for these changes, and determine strategies for effective responses to new challenges. The problem is to reveal the consequences of economic and military confrontations between countries and the formation of new competitive markets in digital technologies. To achieve the goal, a comprehensive approach is used, which includes the analysis of the economic development of the world economy and political and social factors. One of the promising areas of research is the study of the impact of new economic centres of power and the role of military conflicts on international relations. The main tasks are determining critical factors of geopolitical changes and analysing the effectiveness of various economic and technological development strategies. An important direction is the development of recommendations for increasing the stability of national economies and strengthening international cooperation. 2. Materials and Methods The research methodology included four key stages, each aimed at a comprehensive understanding and analysis of the geopolitical transformation of the modern world. The research sample included the G7 countries, the world's leading economies, significantly impacting global geopolitical processes. The sample also includes China, Ukraine, Israel, and countries with developing economies due to their potential impact on geopolitical transformation. Data analysis from these countries made it possible to identify the main trends and challenges facing the world economy in the conditions of geopolitical transformation. The first stage involved analysing the world economy's economic development and outlining the main trends arising from geopolitical processes. Macroeconomic indicators from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank sources were analysed. Special attention was paid to studying the growth dynamics of the gross domestic product. The scenario analysis determines the world economy's leading trends and challenges in modern geopolitical changes. The next stage was the outline of the reasons for the transformation of these processes and their directions. For this purpose, an analysis of political, economic and social factors affecting the geopolitical situation in the world was carried out. The impact of the growth of the economic power of new power centres, such as China and India, on the global balance of power is considered. The role of military conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, in forming modern geopolitical trends is analysed. Special attention was paid to issues of energy security, changes in international trade routes, and strengthening the role of international organisations in solving global problems. The third stage of the study was the strengthening of competition in the field of digital technologies. Data on investments in digital technologies and services were analysed, and the impact of technological progress on geopolitical processes was investigated. The final stage was studying the strategy of the world's leading economies in digitisation and their impact on global competitiveness. Based on the methodology, conclusions and recommendations regarding further prospects for further research were formed. 3. Results The transformation processes of the modern world encompass numerous aspects of economic and military confrontation. One of the main reasons for these changes is the growth of the economic power of new centres of power that are rapidly developing. They cause a redistribution of global economic resources, influence, and tension between traditional and new economic players. The trade war between the United States and China began in 2018 and became a vivid example of an economic confrontation 2264 Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology ISSN: 2576-8484 Vol. 8, No. 6: 2261-2269, 2024 DOI: 10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2423 © 2024 by the authors; licensee Learning Gate that affected the world economy. Tariffs, technology export restrictions and investment tensions have significantly impacted global trade relations. Military confrontations play an essential role in geopolitical transformation. The full-scale war in Ukraine that began in 2022 is one of the most important examples of modern military conflicts that have a profound impact on international relations. The military conflict led to a significant deterioration of relations between Russia and the countries of the West, which was reflected in the introduction of sanctions, the increased military activity of NATO and the strengthening of the defence capabilities of the countries of Eastern Europe. Tensions are rising in the South China Sea, where China is stepping up its territorial claims, causing concern among neighbouring countries and the United States. The corresponding military confrontations affect stability in various world regions and stimulate countries to increase their defence capabilities. At that time, the general development of the world economy was significantly slowing down, the dynamics of which are depicted in Figure 1. Figure 1. Forecast growth of the actual gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide from 2020 to 2025 by economic group. Source: Compiled by the author based on Statista [27]. In recent years, the world economy has tended to slow down development, negatively affecting global stability and prosperity. According to forecasts, the world's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will gradually decline from 2021 to 2025. In 2021, the world economy grew by 6.2%, but in 2022, this indicator decreased to 3%. A further slowdown occurred in 2023 to 2.6%, and in 2024, it is expected to be 2.4%, respectively, in 2025 to 2.7%. A particularly significant slowdown in growth is observed in developed economies, where a decline to 1.2% in 2024 is forecast. Developing economies show more stable indicators. However, their growth is gradually slowing down. The slowdown in economic growth hurts the general economic stability and well-being of the population. A decrease in the rate of economic development leads to a reduction in investment, a decrease in the creation of new jobs and an increase in social tension. Developed countries face problems of an ageing population and high public debt, further complicating the situation. Emerging economies face exchange rate volatility, inflation and structural reforms. In such a situation, the international community should find joint solutions to stimulate economic growth, increase investment attractiveness and ensure global stability. The main reasons and directions of geopolitical transformation are listed in Table 1. 2265 Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology ISSN: 2576-8484 Vol. 8, No. 6: 2261-2269, 2024 DOI: 10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2423 © 2024 by the authors; licensee Learning Gate Table 1. Processes of geopolitical transformation of the modern world. Reasons for transformation Directions of transformation Examples China's growing economic power Reorientation of trade routes to Asia One Belt One Road Initiative, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Conflicts in the Middle East Strengthening the role of international organisations UN participation in peacekeeping operations, increase in migration flows to Europe Climatic changes Increasing attention to environmental issues The Paris Agreement, the development of “green” energy The rise of populism and nationalism Strengthening national borders, changing immigration policy Brexit, construction of walls and fences on borders Technological progress Development of cyber security, change in methods of warfare Use of drones in military operations, cyber attacks Demographic changes An ageing population, changing labour force Policies to stimulate the birth rate, attracting immigrants to support the economy Energy security Diversification of energy sources, reduction of dependence on oil Development of renewable energy, search for new gas and oil fields War in Ukraine Strengthening defence alliances, sanctions against Russia NATO expansion, economic sanctions, military support for Ukraine from the West The geopolitical transformation of the modern world is a complex and multifaceted process that reflects the interaction of numerous factors. One of the main reasons for such changes is the growth of China's economic power. Growth is accompanied by a reorientation of global trade routes to Asia, which contributes to the development of regional economic blocs. Examples of such changes include the Belt and Road Initiative, which is designed to expand China's economic influence in Eurasia, and the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. At the same time, conflicts in the Middle East stimulate the strengthening of the role of international organisations in the settlement of conflicts and the provision of humanitarian aid, which leads to an increase in migration flows to Europe. The international community is developing new approaches to conflict resolution and migrant integration. Climate change affects the geopolitical space, increasing attention to environmental issues at the global level. The Paris Agreement, the leading international document in this area, encourages countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop renewable energy sources. The rise of populism and nationalism in many countries leads to the strengthening of national borders and changes in immigration policies. Technological progress in the field of information technology and military technology affects the methods of warfare and the development of cyber security. Using drones in military operations and the increase in cyber-attacks are becoming new challenges for national security. The war in Ukraine began in 2022 and occupies a special place in modern geopolitical processes. The war in Europe strengthened defence alliances such as NATO and the imposition of wide-ranging economic sanctions against Russia. Military support to Ukraine from Western countries has become essential in changing the balance of power in Europe. The war in Ukraine highlighted the importance of energy security, prompting many countries to diversify their energy sources and reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas. The military conflict showed the need to intensify international diplomacy and cooperation in solving global problems, again emphasising the importance of integration and cooperation in the modern world. 2266 Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology ISSN: 2576-8484 Vol. 8, No. 6: 2261-2269, 2024 DOI: 10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2423 © 2024 by the authors; licensee Learning Gate Digital technologies play a vital role in the modern world, determining the direction of development of economies and societies. Their importance is growing as technology increasingly permeates all areas of human activity, from business to everyday life. Innovative solutions in the field of information technology and artificial intelligence have become the basis for the development of new business models, an increase in production efficiency, and an improvement in quality of life. Digitisation creates new jobs and drives economic growth, enabling companies to adapt to rapid market changes and meet customer needs more efficiently. The general state of the transformation of digital technologies is shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Spending on digital transformation technologies and services worldwide from 2017 to 2027 (in trillion US dollars). Source: Compiled by the author from an IDC [28]. Competition among leading countries for scientific progress and leadership in digital technologies is one of the most important trends in modern world development. The world's leading economies, such as the United States, China, and the European Union, actively invest in scientific research and development to maintain their competitiveness in the global market. Innovation centres and technological parks are created to support startups and attract talented specialists. The corresponding process accompanies active state support in financing, tax benefits and legislative initiatives to stimulate innovative activity. Since 2019, there has been a significant increase in investments in digital technologies and services, which coincided with the spread of Covid-19. According to the data, digital transformation spending grew from $1.18 trillion in 2019 to $2.15 trillion in 2023, projected to reach $3.9 trillion in 2027. This shows that digital technologies are increasingly crucial for countries' economic development and competitiveness. The growth of investments is associated with increased awareness by companies of the need to implement new technological solutions to improve their activities, optimise business processes and create new products and services. In this regard, the importance of digital technologies for national economies continues to grow. Countries that successfully integrate digital solutions into their economic strategies gain significant advantages in the global market. The competition for technological leadership stimulates countries to develop new education, research and innovation strategies. Thus, digital technologies are changing the 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Spending on digital transformation technologies, in trillion U.S. dollars Spending on digital transformation technologies, in trillion U.S. dollars 2267 Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology ISSN: 2576-8484 Vol. 8, No. 6: 2261-2269, 2024 DOI: 10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2423 © 2024 by the authors; licensee Learning Gate economy and shaping the future of society, defining new approaches to solving global problems and ensuring sustainable development. The future of geopolitical transformation will depend on the development of digital technologies and the level of their introduction into public space. 4. Discussion Available results regarding the geopolitical transformation of the modern world have shown that economic and military confrontations between countries significantly affect global stability. The results confirm the importance of the growth of new power centres, consistent with the research [29], emphasising their influence on the modern world. The article confirmed the hypothesis [30] that economic development slows down because rising states are potentially in conflict with dominant ones. A comparison with findings [31] shows that historical examples can help predict contemporary geopolitical changes. The study supports the opinion [32] about the importance of the Eurasian space for global stability. The results support findings [33] regarding the rise of populism, which negatively affects international relations. According to [34], investment in defence technology is critical to national security, as evidenced by rising military tensions. Analysis [35] emphasises the role of democracy and international cooperation, which finds confirmation in its results. A study [36] points to the importance of energy security, which is the basis of stability for the economy in Europe. The results support the idea [37] about socio-economic equality, which affects states' internal and external policies. Despite the effectiveness of various approaches to solving geopolitical challenges, as noted in the study [38], ensuring sustainable development and international stability remains critical. Therefore, the geopolitical transformation of the modern world is a complex process that requires a comprehensive approach and further research to understand the response to the challenges. 5. Conclusion Thus, the study showed that the economic development of the world economy is primarily determined by the influence of new economic power centres and the role of the G7 developed countries. Analysing macroeconomic indicators made it possible to identify critical trends, including gross domestic product growth. The results revealed the importance of military conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, in forming modern geopolitical processes. The influence of competition in digital technologies on international relations became a new factor of geopolitical transformation. Growing investments in digital technologies and their importance for global competitiveness highlight the need for strategic planning and cooperation between countries. Global challenges and problems arising from geopolitical transformations are complex and multifaceted. One of the biggest challenges is the economic slowdown in many developed countries. It leads to a reduction in investment, a decrease in the creation of new jobs and increased social tension. Military conflicts pressure international relations, increasing instability in various world regions. Increasing competition in digital technologies raises new challenges related to cyber security, intellectual property protection and regulation of digital markets. Energy security issues remain relevant as countries try to reduce dependence on traditional energy sources and find new, sustainable solutions. Recommendations and measures to overcome existing challenges include strategic planning, international cooperation and innovation. Countries must develop long-term economic development strategies considering global geopolitical trends and challenges. It is necessary to strengthen international organisations and cooperation mechanisms to resolve conflicts and ensure stability. Investments in digital technologies must be accompanied by developing cyber security and measures to protect intellectual property. It is essential to continue developing renewable energy sources and implementing energy-efficient technologies, contributing to energy security and sustainable development. Integrating the proposed measures will create a basis for a more sustainable and stable world order in the conditions of modern geopolitical transformations. 2268 Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology ISSN: 2576-8484 Vol. 8, No. 6: 2261-2269, 2024 DOI: 10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2423 © 2024 by the authors; licensee Learning Gate Copyright: © 2024 by the authors. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). References [1] A. Yerlan, O. Marina, M. Zhakyp, M. Shindaliyeva, B. Lazzat and A. Kozhayeva, “Food Security as a Component Part of National Security: The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict,” Journal of Educational and Social Research, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 344–353, 2023. https://doi.org/10.36941/jesr-2023-0082 [2] V. 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