


































Microsoft Word - 3. Welty-Feb 2014.docx


Vol. 2, No. 2, Feb 2014, pp. 23-26   
 
 
 
Conference Luncheon Keynote Address  
 
Reflections on the Future of Higher Education 
John Welty, President Emeritus, California State University, Fresno 
Renaissance Leadership Award Recipient 2013 
 
 
 

Thank you for this opportunity to be with you today.  We are at a very critical time for 
the future of higher education.  It is one of those periods, which is very frightening, because the 
winds of change are howling, and yet, it is not clear how much damage these winds will wreak 
on our institutions.  It is also one of those periods in which there is a great opportunity to take 
advantage of new knowledge that we have about student learning, and we also have new tools 
available to us that we have not had before today. 

I would like to explore some of the major forces, which are driving the winds of change, 
share a futuristic perspective with you that others have created, and then I will offer some 
observations about what should occur in the future.  My goal is to make everyone feel somewhat 
uneasy by the time I finish, because I think we need to have an in-depth dialogue about the 
future.   I hope I can stimulate your interest in being part of the dialogue and leading some of the 
change.  I hope that today, we can spend a few minutes engaging in some of this dialogue. 

What are some of the forces or trends that are driving the winds of change? 
 

1. The rising costs of higher education are not sustainable over time.  President Obama has 
raised the issue of the affordability of college as a major priority for his second term.  
Across country, we are beginning to see calls for limiting fee increases for the future.  
Since 1987, tuition and fees have doubled, while state funding for higher education has 
decreased by one third (Eberly, J.  & Carmel, M.; The Economics of Higher Education, 
December, 2012).  There will be huge pressure to stop large fee increases, and at the 
same time, state funding of higher education is not likely to increase dramatically.  The 
general public has now joined this bandwagon. 
 

2. As a result of rising fees, student loan debt is rising at very alarming rates.  Student loan 
debt has now exceeded one trillion dollars in the United States.  This is greater than the 
nation’s credit card debt (Time, October 29, 2012).  The average student loan debt for 
students graduating in 2010 was $25,250 (Time Carnegies Corporation, December, 2012 
study). The inability of students to pay off this debt may be the next fiscal scandal the 
country has to face. 

 
3. Students who are coming to us are digital natives.  Every year, students who enroll in 

Universities, come to us more sophisticated in using technology.  Student’s methods of 
engaging with their world have changed dramatically in the last six-eight years, and it 
continues to change in staggering numbers.  We must better understand how students 
learn in the current era. 



24	
     J. Welty	
  
 

 
4. Research on the brain and learning are helping us better understand how students learn.  

Unfortunately, we have not spent a great deal of time changing how we teach based on 
this new knowledge.  Work at Carnegie Mellon University is beginning to change some 
of the ways we construct our learning environments.  Stanford professor Sebastian 
Thrun’s experiments with teaching online have utilized some of this new knowledge, 
which led to his founding Udacity and launching MOOCs. 

 
5. Alternatives for the delivery of education are expanding at an exponential rate. (Jeff 

Selingo, Chronicle of Higher Education).  As we look across the nation, we see huge 
investments are being made in new learning tools; the Kahn Academy rose up almost 
overnight, and MOOC's have become the hottest topic in higher education.  I could go on 
at length about the new tools, which exist.  Many of these tools promise to lower the 
costs of education and make education universally available to all. 

 
The public has begun to question the value of higher education.  An October 2012 

Time/Carnegie Corporation survey found that 80% of the general population said that they 
somewhat, or strongly agree that the education that students receive today, is not worth what 
they are paying for.  Interestingly enough, only 41% of the college leaders surveyed in the survey 
agree that the value of a college education is not worth what students are paying for.   A more 
recent survey, by Jeff Selingo, found that 57% percent of the population believes that a college 
education is only a fair-to-good value today. 

Increasingly, there is emphasis being placed upon competency based learning and 
assessment of learning.  There is an emergence of interest in granting credit for previous 
learning, or granting degrees based on competencies students learn.  We now have the tools, 
which make it more feasible to assess learning.  There is new interest in changing college 
calendars, and the length of time in which a course is offered. 

These forces are causing a great deal of speculation about the future of higher education.  
Every day, we hear of a new proposal to reduce costs of going to college. Many advocate online 
education as the solution, without fully understanding the complexities.  We are in a period of 
significant disruption. 

Educause prepared a video titled EDU@2020 in 2006, which attempts to trace the 
technological evolution of higher education.  The video predict sin 2008 that the Google Higher 
Education Division will launch open source materials followed by MIT open courseware. The 
video predicts that Google Phoenix will be created as a fully accredited entity. It further predicts 
that Microsoft will announce the acquisition of Pearson and Blackboard. Further, a Faculty One 
talent agency will be formed. 

In 2009, the video predicts that Disney, Sony and Apple will form an education division. 
In 2010, Google Phoenix announces a new effort to access all knowledge. In 2012, the MIT 
Open Learning Alliance announces that students can petition for a degree if certain experiences 
are completed. 

Moving forward to 2017 the video predicts that Google will create academic personas 
with professors who are simulated. This leads to the adoption of synthetic pedagogy on student 
learning and finally in 2020 synthetic educators dazzle the masses. All but the wealthiest 
experience a standardized curriculum to reduce costs. This dramatic change results in the 
increase in quality and the reduction of costs. 



  	
  Reflections	
  on	
  the	
  Future   25 
 

The picture painted by this video contains some major changes, which may not happen.  
However, there is a great deal to ponder in the video. Much of the technology to create the 
scenario described is now available.  

So, what does our future look like and where are we headed?  Let me suggest some 
things, which I believe, will happen in the very near future. 
 

1. The role of the faculty member will continue to change.  We have all heard the 
stereotypes about the role of the faculty member changing from the sage on the stage to 
the guide on the side.   I don' t think there is any question that the faculty member’s role 
will continue to move toward that of a designer of learning experiences, and away from 
the lecture approach to teaching.  I think what will change even further, is an emphasis on 
the faculty member serving on a team of people who include instructional designers and 
others to design the learning experience .The faculty of the future must become 
comfortable with functioning as a team member or leader, and make a commitment to 
using new tools to improve instruction.  There are numerous examples of our faculty who 
are engaged in course redesign and who are achieving very positive results in terms of 
student learning.  Pennebrantz and Goosling at the University of Texas have launched a 
research based psychology course in which they believe they can enroll 10,000 students 
effectively. NOVOED has just been founded to address new ways of teaching remedial 
math. There are many more experiments underway. 

 
2. We must place greater emphasis on applying research on the brain and learning, to how 

we teach our courses.  There needs to be less emphasis on seat time, and more attention 
devoted to assessing student learning and allowing students to progress at their own pace.  
We also need to redesign the academic calendar.  There is no evidence, which suggests 
that the 14-week semester is the best timeframe for students to learn. 

 
3. We will have to learn how to serve more students at less cost.  This probably means that 

we rely more frequently on many of the tools which are available that can serve more 
students.  It probably also means that we place greater emphasis on how we deliver 
learning experiences, and on how we can be more effective in helping students to learn.  
We will need to encourage experimentation in this area to learn how to do it best.  We 
must overcome our resistance to attempting new approaches. 

 
4. I believe we need to engage in serious discussions about how we can develop some 

competency-based degrees. Further, we need to give serious attention to assessing 
learning and granting credit for students who can demonstrate that they have learned 
through other methods.  This is not an easy task but it is a critical issue for our future.  If 
we don't, we may face legislative interference in this area, and that would not be positive. 

 
5. The advent of learning analytics provides a great opportunity to personalize learning 

experiences for students and to better understand how students learn.  I think that we all 
know that not everyone learns in the same way.  Previously, we have lacked sufficient 
tools to figure out what these differences are. I believe that we have the tools available, 
and we must begin to understand how to use these tools. This may be the most positive 
outcome of the MOOC phenomena. 



26	
     J. Welty	
  
 

 
6. We must continue to place more emphasis on intrusive advising and the coaching of 

students.  I believe we have learned through our student success work that our students do 
respond positively to more structure and the increased expectations we establish.  
Supplemental instruction has been an extremely effective approach to improving student 
achievement.  Likewise, early intervention has proven to be successful.  The for-profit 
sector has much for us to learn from through the coaching techniques, which many firms 
have established.  We must not be afraid to try some of these approaches. 

 
7. We must give priority to redesigned courses and experiences, especially those in which 

we have high failure rates.  There are many examples of course resign, which have 
demonstrated that student achievement can be improved.  We must be willing to attempt 
these efforts relying upon many of the resources that exist on campus and those that exist 
through national centers like the Center for Academic Transformation.  As we preparer 
teachers, we must utilize new approaches if future teachers are to function in the changed 
environment. We must better align our curricula at all levels. The Common Core 
Standards effort is clearly a way to do that.  However, I fear that higher education is not 
giving sufficient attention to this effort. The outcome could be another misalignment of 
the curriculum, which negatively impacts students. 

 
As we engage in attempting to control our destiny, I think it is very important to 

remember the admonition of William G. Bowen, who gave the Tanner lecture at Stanford in 
October 2012.  He suggests that we must retain three things as we address the future: 
 

1. We need to emphasize and if need be to re-emphasize the great value of "minds rubbing 
against minds." 

 
2. We must retain, whatever the provocation, the unswerving commitment of great colleges 

and universities to freedom of thought. 
 

3. Our colleges and universities should focus unashamedly on values as well as on 
knowledge - and we should spend more time than we usually do considering how best to 
do this. 

 
I urge all of us to devote some time to reflect on the issues I have identified above.  Our 

failure to do so, could threaten our future. 
 

 


