Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 8, No. 4, 2018, 3234-3237 3234

www.etasr.com Laghari et al.: Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Waters: A Case Study of European Alps

Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Waters:
A Case Study of European Alps

Abdul Nasir Laghari
Department of Energy and Environment
Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University
of Engineering, Science and Technology,

Nawabshah, Pakistan
a.n.laghari@quest.edu.pk

Gordhan Das Walasai
Department of Mechanical Engineering,

Quaid-e-Awam University of
Engineering, Science and Technology,

Nawabshah, Pakistan
valasai@quest.edu.pk

Abdul Rehman Jatoi
Department of Energy and Environment
Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University
of Engineering, Science and Technology,

Nawabshah, Pakistan
jatoi.ar@gmail.com

Daddan Khan Bangwar
Department of Civil Engineering, Quaid -e- Awam University
of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan

skb_khan2000@yahoo.com

Abdul Hannan Shaikh
Department of Mathematics. Quaid e Awam University of

Engineering, Science, and Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan
hanangul12@yahoo.co.uk

Abstract—The Alps play a vital role in the water supply of the
region through the rivers Danube, Rhine, Po and Rhone while
they are crucial to the ecosystem. Over the past two centuries, we
witnessed the temperature to increase by +2 degrees, which is
approximately three times higher than the global average. Under
this study, the Alps are analyzed using regional climatic models
for possible projections in order to understand the climatic
changes impact on the water cycle, particularly on runoff. The
scenario is based on assumptions of future greenhouse gases
emissions. The regional model results show the consistent
warming trend in the last 30-year span: temperature in winter
may increase by 3 to 4.5°C and summers by 4 to 5.5°C. The
precipitation regime may also be altered: increasing about 10-
50% in winter and decreasing about 30-60% in summer. The
changes in the amount of precipitation are not uninformed.
Differences are observed particularly between the North West
and South East part of the Alps. Due to the projected changes in
alpine rainfall and temperature patterns, the seasonality of alpine
flow regime will also be altered: massive rise will occur in winter
and a significant reduction in summer. The typical low flow
period during winter will also be shifted to late summer and
autumn.

Keywords-climate change; European Alps; flow regime; impact
assessment

I. INTRODUCTION
The Alps, spanning over the central part of Europe, play a

key role in the water supply of the region. The chain of this
mountain region known as the “water towers” of Europe are a
mother to number of rivers, i.e., Danube, Rhine, Po, and
Rhone. These rivers provide key services to the ecosystem both
at upstream and the downstream regions. Worryingly,
mountain regions and the Alps in particular are highly exposed
to the climate change. The region has witnessed a remarkably
rise in temperature of approximately +2°C during the last two
hundred years against the global mean surface temperature

increase of 0.74°C [1]. The Alps are highly sensitive to climate
change, even a slight variation in climatic parameters can
significantly change the hydrological cycle. Seasonal snow and
ice factor have strong altitude sensitivity concerning
temperature conditions, so the variation in temperature could
result in sharp changes both to the Alpine climate and
hydrology [2]. The increased temperature rate has severely
affected the alpine hydro-climate system, i.e., extensive glacier
retreat, decline in snow cover duration, rise of snowline,
variations in seasonal runoff regime etc. [3].

Authors in [4-6] analyzed the precipitation in the region and
reported a rise in rainfall in winter season by 20-30% and a
reduction in autumn by 20-40%. The buildup of snow at higher
elevations may form glaciers, and during summer, when
precipitation and runoff are low, their melting provides water to
low-lying areas. The rivers Rhine, Rhone, and Inn, show stable
and higher mean specific discharges of 28-33l/s per km2 in
comparison with Po, Adige and Mur which show lower and
variable mean specific discharges of 17-24l/s per km2.
However, due to the three times higher impact of global
warming, any further temperature change shall result in change
in the Alps hydrological cycle. The two-third of this water
volume were lost by 2000 and 10% of the volume was lost just
in the hot summer of 2003 [7]. If this trend continues, the large
glaciers will lose about 30-70% of their remaining volume by
2050 [8, 9].

It is projected that the changes in the hydro-climate system
will be further intensified in the coming decades, resulting into
increased number of summer droughts, winter floods and
higher inter-mean annual variation in river runoff regimes [10-
12]. Anticipated shortfall of water along with continual intense
events and with the growth in water demand will have negative
impact on the ecosystem. Agriculture, energy use, forestry,
winter-tourism, and river transportation are highly susceptible
to water shortage. These changes in temperature have left

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[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

Vol. 8, No. 4, 20

ate Change on M

keholders with
ated in adjacen

4. Relative s
off till the last 3
nario. Rasters are
bsite, http://pruden

The Alps are
periencing high
d global avera
nd of changes
her increase
uristic precipi
nter and fall in
ow-cover span
projected to

nished, and th
duction by the
w regime will
ignificant fall i

IPCC, The Four
Climate Change

A. Laghari, D. V
result in a shift
Hydrological Sc

I. Auer, R. Bo
Schoner, M.
Efthymiadis, M
J.‐M. Moissel
Bochnicek, P.
M. Dolinar, M
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time series of
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I. Auer, R. Boh
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Efthymiadis, O
Bochnicek, T. C
S. Szalai, T. Sz
dataset for the
International Jo

C. Schar, C. F
Global Change

J. Schmidli, C
precipitation va

018, 3234-3237

Mountain Wate

hin the Alps,
nt lowland reg

seasonal changes
30-year span of
e developed from
nce.dmi.dk/ throu

IV. CO
sensitive to c
her increases i
age. The CLM
s during the l

in winter a
itation pattern

n summer. Thi
shall be reduc
shift upwards

he sizable gla
last decades o
be highly affe

in summer mo

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