Microsoft Word - ETASR_V12_N6_pp9551-9559 Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 12, No. 6, 2022, 9551-9559 9551 www.etasr.com Kassem et al.: Wind Power Generation Scenarios in Lebanon Wind Power Generation Scenarios in Lebanon Youssef Kassem Department of Mechanical Engineering Engineering Faculty Near East University Nicosia, Cyprus yousseuf.kassem@neu.edu.tr Huseyin Camur Department of Mechanical Engineering Engineering Faculty Near East University Nicosia, Cyprus huseyin.camur@neu.edu.tr Hüseyin Gokcekus Department of Civil Engineering Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Near East University Nicosia, Cyprus huseyin.gokcekus@neu.edu.tr Abdalla Hamada Abdelnaby Abdelnaby Department of Mechanical Engineering Engineering Faculty Near East University Nicosia, Cyprus 20213582@std.neu.edu.tr Received: 13 August 2022 | Revised: 10 September 2022 and 16 September 2022 | Accepted: 18 September 2022 Abstract-Renewable energy in terms of solar and wind energy can be an essential part of Lebanon's strategies to add new capacity, increase energy security, address environmental concerns, and resolve the electricity crisis. In this regard, there is an urgent need to develop road maps in order to reduce the effect of global warming and enhance sustainable technological development for generating clean power in the country. Therefore, the present paper evaluates Lebanon's wind energy generation potential as an alternative solution to supply electricity to households in various locations distributed over Lebanon. In the present study, the measured data are used to evaluate the wind energy potential in Lebanon and to find suitable locations to install wind farms in the country. Accordingly, the results demonstrated that Ain ed Dabaa is the most suitable location for the installation of a wind farm. Moreover, the study aims to develop a wind energy cost analysis techno-economic model for eight conventional wind turbines and a Barber wind turbine, which was found to be very competitive. Consequently, this study showed that the implementation of a wind turbine could provide clean, economical, and continuous production of electricity in countries that suffer from daily blackouts. Keywords-Lebanon; wind potential; conventional wind turbines; Barber wind turbine; techno-economic model I. INTRODUCTION Energy demand growth, global warming, climate change, and increasing consumption of fossil fuels has led to the transition from conventional fuels to renewable energy resources [1-3]. Moreover, the use of fossil fuels in the generation of electricity contributes significantly to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, which further contributes to climate change [4, 5]. According to [6], utilizing renewable energy as an alternative energy source will help reduce environmental problems, essentially GHG emissions and air pollution. The use of renewable energy, including wind and solar energy, is rapidly increasing because it is economically viable and has limited environmental impact [7]. During the recent years, many studies have evaluated wind and solar energy potential as clean power sources for electricity generation in various countries. For instance, authors in [8] analyzed the performance of a 5kW rooftop photovoltaic (PV) system in Northern India. The results indicated that the annual average capacity utilization factor was 16.39%. Authors in [9] evaluated the wind potential in Taza and Dakhla cities, Morocco using the Weibull distribution function. The results demonstrated that the value of wind power density is 435.96W/m 2 and 122.91W/m 2 in Dakhla and Taza respectively. Authors in [10] estimated the potential of rooftop PV electricity in Lethbridge, Canada using LiDAR data and ArcGIS. The results showed that the developed system has a huge potential to offset the energy demand of the city. Authors in [11] assessed the performance of the Aventa AV-7 wind turbine for electricity generation in Medina. It was found that the annual generation of energy from the selected turbine is 8648kWh. A. Electricity Situation in Lebanon Lebanon is located on the Eastern edge of the Mediterranean Sea, between 33.8547°N latitude and 35.8623°E longitude. At present, fossil fuels (97%) and hydropower (3%) are the main sources of electrical energy in Lebanon. Generally, the production capacity of electricity reaches 3600MW, while the actual production capacity currently does not exceed 2000MW. Currently, Lebanon has 7 thermal power plants, 6 hydroelectric plants, and 2 power ships operating to generate electricity. The electricity consumption has increased due to the growth of the population and the continuing demand for new large and small appliances as shown in Figure 1 [12]. Besides, only 70% of total generated power covered the energy needs in the country as shown in Figure 2. Corresponding author: Youssef Kassem. Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 12, No. 6, 2022, 9551-9559 9552 www.etasr.com Kassem et al.: Wind Power Generation Scenarios in Lebanon Fig. 1. Electrical power demand distribution [12]. Fig. 2. Electrical power demand distribution [13]. The electricity crisis is one of the most important issues affecting the daily lives of citizens, shop owners, and small businesses in Lebanon for years. The electricity crisis in Lebanon is not new and the electricity sector has suffered from decades of mismanagement, weak policies, and the absence of proper planning. The country has been suffering from a severe shortage of energy due to the dilapidation of old power stations that were accompanied by sabotage operations during the past years. As a result, duration of power cuts for citizens increased to more than 20 hours a day. For this reason, citizens rely on domestic power generators or small home generators, both of them adding great financial burdens. According to [14, 15], private generators are utilized in all the country to meet the energy demand, and they are considered the third main source of production of electricity. B. The Renewable Energy Situation in Lebanon According to [14, 16], the power sector in the country contributes about 58% of total CO2 emissions, of which 25% come from private generators. Consequently, utilizing renewable energy would reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and could be a clean source for electricity generation in the country. Authors in [17] concluded that wind power systems could be alternative sources to fulfill the electrical power required and reduce the CO2 emissions. Moreover, according to [17], standalone wind turbines are privately utilized for the generation of electricity for homes and small private companies. Approximately 2.06% of wind power is currently used for electric power generation in Lebanon [18]. Authors in [19] found that wind energy could be utilized in the country for electricity generation during the night. Authors in [20] concluded that the utilization of small-scale wind systems could be used for the generation of electricity from wind energy in Beirut, Sidon, and Tripoli. Authors in [21] concluded that wind turbine systems could be installed to complement the main grid with electric power during the peak hours. Numerous researchers have investigated the potential of renewable energy, particularly wind energy in different locations in Lebanon [16, 19-25]. For instance, authors in [25] investigated the wind potential in 9 locations in Lebanon. The author concluded that a small-scale wind system could be more profitably used for these areas. Authors in [23] studied the characteristics of wind energy in five locations in Lebanon. Their results showed that the wind energy system can be an alternative solution and more cost-effective than conventional power sources. Authors in [24] assessed the wind energy potential in 8 locations in the Northern Lebanon. The results showed that wind power system can be utilized to reduce the energy shortage in the country. According to [16, 19-25], it can be concluded that:  The utilization of wind power systems in Lebanon is limited.  Renewable energy systems can solve the electricity crisis and reduce CO2 emissions.  Only a few studies investigated the wind turbine performance for generating electricity in Lebanon. According to the literature review, no studies evaluated the potential and variability assessment of wind energy over Lebanon considering various climate conditions. C. The Importance of the Current Study Globally, wind energy and its associated technologies are essential to support electricity consumption and supply power in order to mitigate the electricity crisis. Besides, as an ongoing study on the assessment of renewable energy systems, primarily wind and solar energy in different locations, the present study aims to investigate the wind potential in various locations distributed over Lebanon. To achieve this, measured data for the period 2010-2017 were collected from meteorological agencies. Consequently, the Weibull distribution function was used to evaluate the characteristics of wind speed in the selected locations. The distribution parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The power density was calculated and was used to evaluate the potential of wind energy in each location. Additionally, the Power-Law exponent method was utilized to estimate the wind speed at various hub heights. Based on the literature, wind power is low and unsustainable in many regions in Lebanon. Consequently, this study aims to evaluate the techno-economic performance of the Ferris wheel-based Barber wind turbine, which is a new wind turbine technology, at low wind speed locations. Furthermore, the performance of the selected wind turbine is compared with conventional wind turbines under the same economic conditions. 0 10 20 30 40 50 A g ri c u lt u re a n d F is h e ry T e rt ia ry In d u s tr ia l R e si d e n ti a l E le c tr ic p o w e r d e m a n d d is tr ib u ti o n [ % ] -500 500 1500 2500 3500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 D e m a n d [ M W ] Peak Power Demand Peak Power Generation Difficiency Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 12, No. 6, 2022, 9551-9559 9553 www.etasr.com Kassem et al.: Wind Power Generation Scenarios in Lebanon II. MATERIALS AND METHODS The proposed methodology aims to assess the wind energy potential in 12 locations in Lebanon in order to identify suitable locations for future wind power systems. Then, the economic viability of wind systems is evaluated. Figure 3 illustrates the proposed methodology used in this study. A. Study Area and Dataset This examination was undertaken to identify the best location for installing wind power systems among the chosen locations in Lebanon. Table I summarizes the geographic information of the selected locations. TABLE I. THE SELECTED LOCATIONS Location Latitude [°N] Longitude [°E] Elevation [m] Younine 34.0776 36.2750 1198 Birket Aarous 34.2911 36.1456 2766 Ain ed Dabaa 34.4431 35.8992 296 Mqaybleh 34.6460 36.3577 330 Ras Ouadi Ed Darje 34.2533 36.5775 1555 Kfardebian 34.0017 35.8349 1670 Qaraoun 33.5669 35.7193 913 Khartoum 33.4079 35.3751 305 Iskandarounah 33.1550 35.1685 53 Beirut 33.8938 35.5018 40 Khiam 33.3294 35.6148 697 Hekr El Dahri 34.6306 36.0237 10 B. Wind Speed Distribution The correct determination of the probability distribution of wind speed is a prominent factor in evaluating the wind energy potential in a region. Thus, knowing the wind speed distribution at a specific location is necessary for determining its potential. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution is commonly utilized to study the characteristics of wind speed. The Weibull Probability Density Function (PDF)���� and the cumulative distribution function ���� expressions are [26]: ���� = �� �� �� ��� �− �� � � (1) ���� = 1 − ��� �− �� � � (2) where � is the mean wind speed (m/s), � is the shape parameter, and c is the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. To determine the distribution parameter, the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used to determine k and c [27]: � = �∑ ��� ����� ��� ∑ ����� − ∑ �������� � �� (3) � = � � ∑ ���� �⁄ (4) Following the Weibull distribution, (5) and (6) are utilized to estimate the average wind speed and the standard deviation of the wind speed respectively. � = �Γ �1 + � (5) # = $�% &Γ �1 + %� − Γ% �1 + � ' (6) C. Wind Power Density To assess the potential of wind energy, (7) is utilized to determine the Wind Power Density (WPD) at a specific location: �() * = % +�,Γ �1 + ,� (7) The average value of WPD can be estimated by [21]: () = % +�, (8) () = % +�,���� (9) (.) = % +�̅ , (10) where P is wind power density (W), 0. is the mean wind power density (W), A is the swept area (m 2 ), ρ is the air density (kg/m 3 ), ���� is the PDF, and � 1 is the mean wind speed (m/s). D. Wind Speed Data Extrapolation at Different Hub Heights Generally, wind speed measurements are carried out at a height of 10m above the ground. To obtain energy from wind turbines, it is necessary to estimate wind speeds at various hub heights using (11) [28]: ���2 = � 33�2 2.5672.2889��:�2��72.2889��;�2 �2⁄ � (11) where � is the wind speed at the wind turbine hub height z, � < is the wind speed at the original height = <. E. Energy Output of a Wind Turbine The produced energy by the wind turbine >?@A can be estimated by [28]: >?@A = ∑ PCDE F��G (12) where F is time and 0?@A is determined by: 0?@A = ⎩⎪⎨ ⎪⎧ 0 when � < � �(R �S���S�� ��R� + � (R�R���S�� � � � when � � ≤ � ≤ �U 0U when �U ≤ � ≤ � ? 0 when � > � ? (13) where 0U is the rated power of the wind turbine, � � the turbine’s cut-in speed, � ? turbine’s cut-off speed, and �U is its rated wind speed. The average power generation of the turbine can be expressed as [29]: 0?@A = 0U WXYZ[��:S�S �\�XYZ[��:RS �\�:RS ���:S�S � − ��� ]− ��S^ � _` (14) The Capacity Factor (CF) is estimated [29, 30]: a� = b^cdefg<(R (15) Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 12, No. 6, 2022, 9551-9559 9554 www.etasr.com Kassem et al.: Wind Power Generation Scenarios in Lebanon Fig. 3. Flowchart of the proposed methodology. In this study, various wind turbines assumed the load profile for all months of the year. Nine wind turbines (Table II) with various characteristics including the Capital Cost of acquisition (CC) and O&M Cost (OMC) are selected as shown in Tables II-III. Generally, Conventional Wind Turbines (CWTs) are designed to generate electricity at high wind speeds. The cut-in speed and rated wind speed for these turbines are within the range of 3-5m/s and 12-15m/s respectively [30, 31]. CWTs are heavy and expensive to buy, install, and maintain. Therefore, the performance of the Ferris Wheel Wind Turbine (FWWT) is compared with the selected CWTs due to its advantages, such as its light design, lower weight to power ratios, etc. [32]. TABLE II. SELECTED WIND TURBINES Model No. Wind turbine model Manufacture Model#1 Enercon E5 Enercon GmbH Model#2 Enercon E44 Enercon GmbH Model#3 EWT DW61 Emergya Wind Technologies B.V. Model#4 GE SLE 1.5 Winergy/Eickhoff/Bosch. Model#5 AN Bonus 1 MW/54 Siemens Wind Power A/S Model#6 DEWIND-62-91.5 m DeWind Model#7 Neg-Micon NEG Micon A/S Model#8 Vestas-V66 Vestas Wind Systems A/S Model#9 Barber wind turbine BarberWind Turbines TABLE III. CHARACTERISTICS AND SPECIFICATIONS Model No. HH [m] hi [kW] jkl [m/s] ji [m/s] jkm [m/s] CC [USD] OMC [USD/y] Model#1 76 800 3 13 25 1750000 51250 Model#2 55 900 3 16.5 34 2337500 51250 Model#3 69 900 2.5 10 25 1918770 57158 Model#4 85 1500 3 14 25 3375000 57158 Model#5 50 1000 3 15 25 863530 25043 Model#6 91.5 1000 2.5 11.5 23 1124758 32618 Model#7 70 1000 4 14 20 1162460 33711 Model#8 67 1650 4 16 25 1768000 51272 Model#9 70 800 3 9.6 20 1400000 42000 F. Economic Viability of a Wind System The wind energy farm’s viability is dependent on its ability to generate energy at low operating cost. In this paper, the Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) is utilized to calculate the Electricity Generated Cost (EGC) of the wind turbine [32]: nao> = p ���q�����q���7�efg