Microsoft Word - ETASR_7-1_1382-1386.doc Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 7, No. 1, 2017, 1382-1386 1382 www.etasr.com Hamasha: A Mathematical Approximation of the Left-sided Truncated Normal Distribution Using the … A Mathematical Approximation of the Left-sided Truncated Normal Distribution Using the Cadwell Approximation Model Mohammad M. Hamasha Department of Engineering Management Prince Sultan University Riyadh, Saudi Arabia mhamash1@binghamton.edu Abstract—In the case that life distribution of new devices follows the normal distribution, the life distribution of the same brand used devices follows left-sided truncated normal distribution. In spite of many mathematical models being available to approximate the normal distribution density functions, there is a few work available on modeling/approximating the density functions of left-sided truncated normal distribution. This article introduces a high accuracy mathematical model to approximate the cumulative density function of left-sided truncated standard normal distribution defined on the range of [truncation point (ZL): ∞]. The introduced model is derived from the Cadwell approximation of the normal cumulative density. The accuracy level change with Z score is discussed in details. The maximum deviation of the model results, from the real results for the whole region of [-∞0, then approximating ՓT(z) needs to extract the positive z part of (7) and substitute it in (6), exactly as we did in (9). The result is addressed in (11).                                             2 1 2 42 2 1 2 42 3 )3(22 exp(11 1 3 )3(22 exp(1 1)(       LL T zz zz z , z≥0 (11) IV. NUMERICAL EXAMPLES Example 1: If the life of a television set is normally distributed with a mean of 22 years and standard deviation of 7. The interest of this question is to find the 6 year reliability of 6 years used television from the same brand. In other words, what is the chance that the 6 years old television will be survived for another 6 years? Solution: Reliability is defined as the probability that a device, part or system will perform their function for a given period of time when operated under stated conditions [14]. The requirement can be written in statistics notation as P(X> 6+6). Since this distribution is not standard, the transformation formula, z=(x-µ)/σ will be used to find zL and z that are corresponding to x=6 and x=12, respectively. 286.2 7 226   Lz 249.1 7 2212   z The probability P(X>12) is corresponding to P(Z>-1.249) or 1-ՓT(-1.249). By using (11), the result is 0.905713. The model result is very close to the actual result which is 0.904229. The deviation of the model result from the actual result (i.e., error) is only 0.00148 Example 2: Let’s assume that the distribution of scores of GRE analytical part test out of 800 is normally distributed with a mean of 540 points and standard deviation of 40 points, and let’s assume that the acceptable score for some graduate school is 460. If an admitted student is selected randomly, what is the probability that his score is below 620? Solution: Since the value of probability density at any X greater than 800 (more than is 6.5 sigma) is very close to zero, we will not assume that the distribution is truncated from the right side at 800. The distribution of the admitted students is left-sided truncated normal distribution at the acceptable level (i.e., 460). zL = -2 is corresponding to xL = 460 by using the transformation formula (i.e., z=(x-µ)/σ). Further, z=2 is corresponding to x=620. In statistic notation, the requirement is P(X<620) which is corresponding to P(Z<2) or Փ T(-1.249). By using (11), the result is 0.9826. The model result is very close to the actual result for this example. The actual result is 0.97672, and deviation of the model result from the actual result is only 0.00588. It is noticeable from both examples, that the error level is very low. Indeed, this level of error is very ignorable for most applications of reliability engineering as well as other probability fields. V. ACCURACY ANALYSIS In this section, the accuracy of the model is presented in term of approximating the left-sided truncated normal distribution. Mainly, the change of deviation of the model results from the real results (i.e., error) with Z and ZL is focused. To make sure that the introduced model is good at all value Z and ZL, we are concerning about the maximum error over the whole defining range, (ZL:∞) at any ZL (-∞:-1.5). Figure 2 presents the error versus Z at ZL= -4, -3.5, -3, -2.5, -2, and -1.5. We can clearly note that there are two maximum peaks (i.e., maximum deviation or error) for every curve. The first peak is noticed at somewhere between Z=-1.6 and Z=-1.7, and the second peak is noticed at somewhere between Z=1.6 and Z=1.7 for all curves. The maximum error for each curve is as follows: for ZL= -4, the maximum absolute error is about 0.006452, for ZL= -3.5, the maximum absolute error is about 0.006456, for ZL= -3, the maximum absolute error is about 0.0065, for ZL= -2.5, the maximum absolute error is about Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 7, No. 1, 2017, 1382-1386 1385 www.etasr.com Hamasha: A Mathematical Approximation of the Left-sided Truncated Normal Distribution Using the … 0.00663, for ZL= -2, the maximum absolute error is about 0.006887, and for ZL= -1.5, the maximum absolute error is about 0.0071251. Usually, the literature does not focus on any truncation point higher that ZL=-2 as it is rarely needed in most applications. In this study, we took ZL=-1.5 as the final truncation point. In Figure 3, the error versus Z is constructed for the original approximation of standard normal distribution that our model is based on (i.e., Cadwell approximation). We can see that the maximum error is 0.006466 at Z= -1.655 and at Z=1.655. The accuracy of the Cadwell model is close to the accuracy of the truncated Cadwell model at any considered ZL. The current model is more accurate than the logistic function-based truncated normal distribution which introduced in [1]. The current model leads to a maximum absolute error of about 0.0071, while the maximum absolute error in the logistic function-based model is close to 0.02 at the range of -∞