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Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? 

Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

 

ARMS PROLIFERATION AND THE RISE OF INSURGENCY IN NIGERIA:  

A TREND OR A BAIT? 

  

Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC. PhD 

Department of Political Science 

Federal University Ndufu Alike Ikwo (FUNAI), 

Abakaliki –Ebonyi State, Nigeria 

groupsonpaul@yahoo.com 

 

Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

Department of Political Science 

Federal University Ndufu Alike Ikwo (FUNAI) 

Abakaliki –Ebonyi State, Nigeria 

 adeayo2000s@yahoo.com 

 

Abstract 

Nigeria, with the worst porous border in the Sub-Saharan Africa, for long, is a victim of 

nefarious crimes of small arms and light weapons trans-border trades leading to arms 

proliferation. These arms proliferation, encouraged by failed internal mechanisms, had 

become a great threat since the inception of democratic dispensation. To the extent that, 

the activities of the several militia groups and over ambitious politicians had affected 

security measures. The number of small arms and light weapons on the individual and 

group hands, outnumbered the arms in the armed forces and police armouries combined, 

armoured tanks excluded. The study, aware that in the midst of crisis, foreign friends and 

foes alike, concealed their real intentions, to pursue their national and selfish interests. 

A trend that encourages arms conflicts and its escalations. This study, situated on the 

game theory framework, utilizes secondary data and analytical approach. The study 

notes that there are small arms and light weapons proliferation in Nigeria through 

disgruntled groups. The study finds that porous border crimes might have aided in-flow 

of arms. The study observed that poverty and unemployment played a role. The study 

suggests that arms mop-up and conflict education be initiated. 

 

Key Words: Conflicts, Small Arms, Light Weapons, Porous Border, Militia Group, and 

Arms Proliferation. 

 

Introduction 

The issue of small arms and light 

weapons proliferations upsurge, 

especially, at the end of cold war and the 

end of 20th century into the new 

millennium, has made the World to 

witness more terrible and devastating 

arms struggles and wars as it supposedly 

ought to have occurred in the period 

preceding the 21st century. 

 

 
 

mailto:groupsonpaul@yahoo.com
mailto:adeayo2000s@yahoo.com


 

 

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Between the end of cold war and now, 

conflicts and wars in the world and 

Africa in particular, have been fought 

primarily within states by rebels, 

extremists and national armies, with the 

victims being predominantly civilians 

and vulnerable groups in the society 

owing to the high incidence of small 

arms and light weapon proliferations. 

The value placed on illicit small arms 

over human lives was more than ever 

priced. Thus, the degrees of destruction 

and carnage as noted in Iraq, Bosnia 

Herzegovina, Liberia, Somalia, 

Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Yemen, Burundi, 

Serbia, Georgia, Tbilisi, Congo DR, 

Afghanistan, Sierra Leone, Cote 

d’Ivoire, Mali, Libya, Syria and Israel – 

Palestine amongst others were more 

catastrophic than ever. It is a situation 

characterized by mass killings and 

ethnic cleansing, which the actors 

regarded as the inevitable consequences 

of war, rebellion and conflicts 

(Rupensinghe, 1998). 

 

This notion, thereby, prompting Baffour 

(2014), to argue that the current events 

in many parts of the world seem to 

suggest that the global efforts to fighting 

against the proliferations of small arms 

and light weapons require enhancement. 

Much so, it is obvious that the world is 

still awash with small arms and light 

weapons exacerbating the already 

debilitating catastrophic human 

suffering, especially its impact on 

women and children and the 

geographically spreading that is more 

devastating in the southern hemisphere. 

The illicit circulation of small arms, light 

weapons and their ammunitions 

destabilizes communities, impacts 

security and development among others 

in all regions of the world. 

 

Nigeria with the highest and worst 

porous border in the sub-Saharan Africa 

has for long been a victim of illicit small 

arms and light weapons proliferations. A 

context that could not only be placed 

squarely on its unhealthy internal 

mechanism, nor at the door steps of it is 

Oliver Twist neighbours who pop-in and 

out of the country with lip-services, but 

could be underpinned on the parlance of 

being a rich man in the midst of many 

poor people, whose own system it 

careless about and, whose neighbours’ 

intents and plight it neglects, thereby 

making itself a victim owing to bad 

leaderships. In support of this 

contention, Danjibo (2014 and 2013) 

observed that with the emerging, 

daunting, security challenges 

beleaguering the Nigeria state, there is 

no doubting the fact that Nigeria has 

today become a theatre of the utility of 

small arms and light weapons. A fact, 

Ikelegbe (2014), also posits that Nigeria 

has been particularly plagued with 

violent conflicts in the last two decades. 

Several of these conflicts have been 

conducted by militias (insurgency rise in 

the Niger Delta, Boko Haram in the 

North East and Ombass in the North 

Central), cult groups, Islamic 

fundamentalist, armed youth, thugs, 

criminal groups and area boys. In the 

circumstances, insecurity has been a 

huge concern to the citizens. And of 

course, thus, given rise to which 



 

 

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Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? 

Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

 

democratic rules has been associated 

with rising lawlessness, violent 

criminality, insecurity, violent political 

and widespread small arms and light 

weapons proliferations. 

 

Premised on the foregoing, this study 

examine whether illicit arms is a bait or 

trend to the rising rate of 

terrorism/insurgency in the country or 

phrasal conflict term, the theoretical 

argument, stating the obvious, evaluates 

the schemes and skills adopted by the 

actors. The factors that led to small arms 

and light weapon proliferations in 

Nigeria discussed; and, then, the need 

for thorough scrutinization of every 

Greek gift “of helping” as such may go 

with implications and or manipulations 

to demisfy the society to be more 

cancerous than cancer. 

 

Illicit Arms: A Bate or Trend for 

Insurgency Rise in Nigeria 

The very reason that the arms were 

officially unregistered, unlicensed, 

unrecognized and or illegally stolen or 

acquired makes these (small arms) 

weapons an illicit item…and or as noted 

in ECOWAS Convention (1998) CAP 1 

Art.1: sect. 5, which states inter alia, 

‘that small arms covers all that is carried 

out in violations of the convention’. 

Evidently also small arms come into a 

country through or by chance of 

smuggling by irresponsible persons who 

might have the intent of destabilizing or 

checkmating the established institutions 

and agencies in whatever form or 

projections. Thus, agreeing with Aning 

(1999:76), who argued that it is evident 

that a catchy of SALW, which is bait for 

conflict encourages the occurrence of 

internal insurrection that might have 

been supported by external actors and 

rebel within the society. Although, 

Pokoo (2014), not disputing the above 

contentions went further to infer that 

small arms have its own socio-cultural 

value in West African communities – 

like, as used in hunting, festivals and 

other social events, for protecting farms 

and properties among others. Then, on 

how this ill has become a bait to conflict 

as enunciated above, he was quick to 

point out that it has not only become a 

bait, but also the heart of violent 

destructions around the world, 

threatening human security and 

fundamental human rights, that West 

Africa was never an exception. 

Accepting these assertions as a fact, Orji 

(2014), added that the widespread 

availability of SALW has exacerbated 

and prolonged conflicts, raising new 

ones for recognitions, and also 

contributed to violence destruction that 

has impeded the processes of 

development in Africa. To confirm these 

views, Ki-Moon (2012) noted that “the 

World is over armed and peace is 

underfunded”, which in tandem with 

Annan (2012), who also noted that the 

havoc in term of the change they cause, 

small arms, indeed, could well be 

described as weapons of mass 

destruction. Meaning that, as at today, 

small arms proliferations has also 

assumed a trend among individuals, 

groups, homes and the general society to 

possessing it. It suffices then to say that 

there is no home in Nigeria today that 



 

 

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does not have one form of arms or the 

other. Even recently at Shomolu area of 

Lagos, some policemen, crime fighters, 

were quick to resist going to track down 

some car snatchers up Northern part of 

the country, claiming that with the 

national election at the corner that arms 

are in many homes less loosing lives in 

case of any attack. 

 

Since this item is found in several homes 

due to its handiness or otherwise, and in 

line with general definition, small arms, 

otherwise termed illicit items, that are 

traded on by men on illicit trades, 

according to UN (1995) and ECOWAS 

Convention (1998) among others 

includes: light machine guns, assault 

rifles, revolvers, self-loading pistols, 

grenade launchers, sub-machine guns, 

exploding bomb, an incendiary bomb or 

gas bomb, rocket launcher, a missile, a 

missile system and landmine; carbines 

and light machine guns. The light 

weapons, on the other hand are: heavy 

machine guns; portable grenade 

launchers, mobile or mounted; portable 

anti-aircraft cannons; portable anti-tank 

cannons, non-recoil guns; portable anti-

tank missile launchers or rocket 

launcher; portable anti-aircraft missile 

launcher; mortars with a caliber of less 

than 100mm among others. These 

weapons are responsible for the majority 

of battle related conflicts and deaths. 

 

In explaining how devastating and 

worrisome the effects are to the World, 

Africa and Nigeria in particular, the 

Religion for Peace World Assembly 

(1984) observed that an estimated 60 – 

90% of all direct conflict victims are 

killed with firearms, simply because 

small arms and light weapons are 

conflict fuel, instability driven and 

poverty manipulated. These weapons of 

war, mostly used against the innocent 

and the helpless by many politicians, 

war mongers, power manipulators, self-

acclaimed Islamic extremist/ 

fundamentalist terror groups and 

senseless security agents sees it as 

readily made instruments to perpetually 

subdue and subjugate the general 

society. A scenario where the events of 

the late 80s into the 90s greatly 

influenced creating unhealthy political 

system in many part of the world most of 

especially crises-riddled African 

society. 

 

Following the end of cold war, the two 

major factors that have mitigated and 

drives conflict are political powers – 

leadership tussles and the economic 

might of who controls the spoils of the 

states. The actors in this context are the 

major sponsors of small arms and light 

weapon proliferation. The actors in turn 

manipulates their followers, allies and 

surrogates who form the bulk of the tools 

for either importing, spreading and/or 

smuggling of the small arms and light 

weapons to achieving their goals. It is 

also this group that sees arms possession 

and arms usage as bait for conflict by 

brainwashing, manipulating, inciting 

and arming the end users. On the other 

hand, the second group sees arms 

possession as a trend and something that 

many homes must acquire. Thereby, 

agreeing with United Nations (1995), 



 

 

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Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

 

that these small arms and light weapons 

are used to destabilizing regions, 

igniting crisis, fuel conflicts, and 

prolong conflicts/war, obstruct, 

confiscates relief goods and progress, 

undermine peace initiatives, exacerbates 

human rights violations and abuses, 

hamper development and foster culture 

of violence.  These group, the end users 

and possible at times, the victims, being 

the political touts and thugs (Onuoha, 

2012), otherwise vent their anger on the 

innocent civilians of the society; as they 

fall within the class of impoverished, 

unemployed and miscreants of the 

society, whose existence have been 

destroyed, messed-up, meaningless and 

cheated upon by the state. A situation, 

Dube (2014), classified as a people, a 

country at war with itself, all illegal guns 

were once legal before being diverted, to 

the tussle of the haves and the have nots. 

These were the type of scenarios seen at 

Liberia, Sierra Leone, Angola, Congo 

DR, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Burundi, 

Rwanda, Sudan and Libya wars among 

others, whose atrocities ranges from 

maiming, amputating, killings, raping 

and infecting of the surviving victims 

with HIV/AIDS among others. 

 

The high degree of illicit small arms and 

light weapons proliferations being a bait 

of conflict as posit by Vendley and Ali 

(2010), states inter alia, that proliferation 

and misuse of small arms is a worldwide 

progressive complex and multifaceted 

phenomena that affects people of all… 

By virtue of their easy availability, low 

cost and manageability, small arms and 

light weapons (SALW) have become the 

weapon of choice in most conflicts in the 

world today and have helped raise levels 

of armed violence even in areas at 

peace… A trend that suddenly arose and 

a bait that had caused several havoc and 

damages…where more than 1000 lives 

are lost each day to small arms violence. 

These assertions, however, stands to 

sum up the fact that illicit small arms and 

light weapons are bait to conflicts in the 

world and Africa in particular, with the 

new growing emphasis of also being a 

trend among many Nigerians today. 

This, with a far-reaching and long 

lasting impact that extends well past 

their immediate use in conflicts is the 

new haven for insurgence in the land. 

 

In submission, however, Berman (2014) 

noted that small arms have been used 

extensively to sponsor armed violence in 

West African States, particularly in 

Nigeria where insurgency has at several 

occasion chased out the federal troops at 

different times, thereby weakening 

governments’ ability to function, 

threatening civil aviation, grossly 

distorting the minds of the youths and 

practically leading to detrimental long - 

term societal changes. 

 

Theoretical Arguments 

This study, in reference to the situations 

mentioned above, is poised to adopt an 

eclectic approach to its theoretical 

analysis with the combination of Game 

Theory framework, Frustrating-

Aggression Theory to interrogate this 

study: 

  



 

 

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A: Frustration-Aggression analysis 

became a popularly known intellectual 

savvy as a theoretical canon within the 

realm of political studies with the 

writings of Ted Gurr (1970) in his book 

‘Why Men Rebel?  Even though 

plethora of scholars through their works 

have earlier before Gurr (1970), 

contributed immensely to the domain of 

conflict studies with the use of 

frustration-aggression theory: Maier 

(1949), Berkowitz (1965), Coser (1966), 

Cantril (1967), Bank (1996) among 

others. As a theory, frustration-

aggression analysis is premised on the 

fact that there is a nexus between 

aggression and frustration. The theory 

assumes that those who are frustrated in 

life might likely be aggressive and that 

there is a tendency that frustration due to 

inability to achieve some basic things in 

life might lead to aggression. Gurr and 

Rutenberg (1967), opined that an intense 

frustration in the society provides a 

veritable platform to motivate men to 

either intense, short-term attack or to 

move prolonged, less severe attacks on 

the initiators of the pains; that severity of 

deprivation affects both intensity of 

violence, causing human and physical 

damages.  

         

In other words, Berkowitz (1965), mild 

deprivation motivates few violence, 

moderate deprivation push more across 

the threshold and very intense 

deprivation encourages large segments 

of political community actions. This, 

according to Cantril (1967) and Maier 

(1949), destructive behaviour, which is a 

fundamental property of the human 

organization of men and exposed to 

noxious stimuli that cannot be avoided 

or overcome, hence, having the innate 

disposition, to strike out at their sources.  

It is in this respect that the study finds 

theory relevant to interrogate the issues 

that revolve around arms proliferation 

and the rising wave of insurgency in 

Nigeria. This study argues that 

insurgency in Nigeria became prolonged 

due to social neglect, poverty, mass 

unemployment, and social inequality 

owing to the multiplier effects that such 

frustration can cause in the society.  It is 

argued in the study that frustration to 

achieve basic minimum living standard 

daily is a precursor to aggression/ 

violent conflicts vis-à-vis the 

unmitigated insurgency deadly activities 

that are rising every now and then in 

Nigeria. However, this theory has been 

criticized for its gender discrimination.  

The theory often fails to identify the 

gaps in various gender studies. It does 

not prove why men are likely more to be 

aggressive than the women and it is not 

always true to say that men often fight 

than women. This is difficult to prove 

due to insufficient reason. Besides, it is 

not always through to say most 

frustrating situations are prone to 

aggression or to say most conflicting 

situations are inwardly motivated by one 

form of aggression or the other. Or can 

we still link frustration-aggression 

syndrome to Fulani Herders versus 

farmers’ violent killings throughout the 

country? Or is there no boiling point at 

which human aggression in the society 

can be saturated? The dichotomy 

between frustration leads to aggression 



 

 

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Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? 

Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

 

varies from different individuals’ 

perception to another.  However, some 

of these weaknesses are captured with 

the use of game theory framework of 

analysis. 

 

Game Theory framework, without 

neglecting the interplay of national or 

self-interest model. The choice of game 

theory however, overwhelmed all other 

related theories and also covers some of 

the inherent weaknesses associated with 

frustrated-aggression theory.  Game 

Theory involves combined 

manipulation, scheming and propaganda 

to achieve desired objectives. Thus, 

scholars like Plano and Riggs (1953) 

opined that it is a body of thought 

dealing with rational decision strategies 

in situations of conflict and competition, 

of which each participant or player tends 

to maximize gains and minimize losses. 

In tandem with the above assertion, 

Mager (1972) argued that it is a form of 

arithmetic mode of interactions of actors 

striving to maximize their utilities. To 

Newman and Magestern (1957), it is 

used to define the economic man as a 

rational actor who believes in gain rather 

than losses. Agreeing with this 

contention, Stranger (1960) posits that 

game theory is a domineering concept 

with the intent of greed and logical 

reasoning of manipulating others against 

their desires, against the society and 

against the entire system. In the same 

continuum, Levy and Thompson (2010), 

argued that game theory is the act of 

rationally advancing security, power and 

wealth in any societal contest. 

 

Therefore, if game theory involves the 

manipulation of numbers, persons and 

materials to achieving set goals, whose 

rules are defined vis-à-vis the 

distribution of resources and the 

strategic possibilities that are open to 

each player in the employment of these 

resources, then, the questions this study 

raises are: what are the possibilities that 

the flooding of the country with illicit 

small arms and light weapons are not 

politically motivated since substantial 

evidence implicates the political class as 

seen at every electioneering period? 

Why are illicit arms a bait to conflict in 

the society with insurgency rearing ugly 

heads in almost every part of Nigeria? 

What do the actors who encourage the 

in-flow of small arms and light weapon 

into the country tends to achieve? Why 

are possessions of small arms in the 

country now a trend seen among every 

home? What are the possible 

implications of this illegality to the 

general society? Is it possible that these 

sponsors and their agents intend to 

undermine the territorial integrity of the 

country by any means? Should we also 

agree that corruption helped to make it 

difficult to control the in-flow of small 

arms and light weapons during peace 

time operation? What are Nigeria’s 

strategies for national cooperation and 

integration towards security, good 

governance and human rights? Do the 

importers of these small arms and light 

weapons intend to destroy what they 

hope inheriting and administering at the 

same time? How can these quantities of 

small arms and light weapons be 

possibly mopped up from the street of 



 

 

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Nigeria? These are some of the vital 

questions addressed in this study. 

Taking into cognizance that apart from 

the political class and the government, 

whether ruling or in opposition utilizes 

the concept of manipulation, scheming 

and propaganda to suffocate the 

governed into perpetual fear, to which 

small arms and light weapons 

proliferation has not only become a bait 

to several conflicts and crisis but had 

also assumed a trend in the present 

context, especially, the period preceding 

electioneering contest. A period, the 

actors also indulge in employing and 

deploying all arsenals with strategic 

game plan on how to gain political 

power at all cost. 

 

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF DATA 

FROM FIELD WORK 

With the aid of statistical inferences, this 

study empirically analyses data 

collected from fieldwork. It also put in 

vogue the core theoretical analyses to 

determine whether arms proliferations 

triggered off the rising-wave of 

insurgency and ethnic militancy in 

Nigeria is a question of a trend or a bait.  

In order to logically elucidate the 

research, stand point, the study also 

relied on the following hypotheses to 

analyze the subject-matter within the 

ambit of an empirical scientific testing: 

 

A.  Research Hypotheses 

1. That political power struggle 

during electioneering process or 

quest for power in Nigeria 

enhances arms proliferations vis-à-

vis insurgency in Nigeria; 

2. That social inequality, poverty, 

unemployment and other forms of 

social neglect induce illegal arms 

possession 

 

In the light of this, the raised hypotheses 

are subjected to inferential statistical 

analysis, using Chi-Square method of 

data analysis. The raw data are generated 

through questionnaires administered 

across the six-geopolitical zones in 

Nigeria. These questionnaires are 

openly-structured and the respondents 

include both males and females on a 

geo-political basis in Nigeria having 

purposively been selected. 

 

The variable, such as Arms struggled 

and Non-Arms struggled; proliferation 

and Non-Arms proliferation; Trans-

border Crime and Legitimate Trade were 

used to determine whether there is a 

significant different/relationship 

between observed frequencies and 

expected frequencies with a view to 

rejecting or retaining the null hypothesis 

(H0).    

 

In social statistical analysis, the level of 

significance of one-tailed test for Chi-

square analysis is 0.05% or 5% and 

Critical Table Value (CV) for Chi-

square when the degree of freedom(df) 

for  X2  test of independence is df = (r-

1)(c-1) where r = number of row and C= 

number of columns. In this study, we 

have two rows and columns apiece. 

Hence, the df at 1 from the Critical table 

value is 3,841.  And in a bid to further 

illuminate our understanding of the 

subject-matter for this study, we 



 

 

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categorized each of the six-geopolitical 

zones into different indices/variables 

based on flow of arms, civil unrest and 

the unceasing rising-wave of violent 

conflicts emanating from each zone in 

Nigeria. 

 

B. ADMINISTRATION OF 

QUESTIONNAIRE 

This study uses North-West and` South-

South categorization of Arms struggled 

and Non-Arms struggle; North-East or 

South-East categorization of Arms 

Proliferations and Non-Arms 

Proliferations; North-Central or South-

West categorization of Trans-border 

Crime and Legitimate Trade, a total 

number of one thousand questionnaires 

(1000) were administered within the 

purposively sample selected two states 

across each of the six-geopolitical zones. 

Hence, the statistical tables below show 

the data analysis of the various 

responses from male and female 

respondents 

 

DATA ANALYSIS: 

This paper uses Chi-square (X2) method 

of inferential statistics to analysis the 

various responses from different 

respondent purposively selected based 

on the Six-geopolitical zones of Nigeria 

from North-West, North-East, North-

Central, South-South, South-East and 

South-West regions in Nigeria. 

 

NORTH-WEST ZONE:    Test of 

significance of the Null Hypotheses 

(H0) 

This study presents its two hypotheses 

above from the descriptively and 

interpretively analyzed So that the null 

hypothesis could be subjected to more 

inferential statistical analyses. Hence, 

the two hypotheses raised were tested 

for significance at P< 0.05which was 

analyzed and interpreted effectively. In 

the North-West zone of Nigeria, Arms 

and Non-Arms struggled dichotomy 

were used to interrogate the two null 

hypotheses. 

 

H01: there is no significant relationship 

between Arms Smuggled and Non-Arms 

Smuggled as to whether due to its 

(Rising wave of Insurgency) 

pervasiveness that political power 

struggle during electioneering process in 

Nigeria will not enhance arms hostilities 

within the two states of Sokoto and 

Niger from the North-West zone.  

Evidence from the sample survey 

conducted as it is shown below in this 

study reveals that, the first null 

hypothesis is rejected whereX2 > CV,   

11.1 > 3.841 at P <0.05.  This means 

there is a perfect agreement between our 

first hypotheses and the 

indices/variables that we used to 

measure or determine whether political 

power struggled in the North-West 

Nigeria has a nexus with arms and non-

arms smuggled in the zone.  

 

H02: That there is no significance 

relationship between Arms/Non-

smuggled and poverty, inequality, and 

other forms of social neglects as to 

whether due to the (Rising wave of 

Insurgency) multiplier effects in the 

society cannot be blamed or linked to the 

incessant and unwarranted violent 



 

 

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conflicts in the zone. This hypothesis 

was tested for significance using Chi-

square test and below table shows the 

synopsis of the analysis in which α= 

0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) 

= (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) = 

3.841 where the calculated X2= 11.1         

 

Interpretation for H01 and HO2: Since 

X2 > CV,   11.1 > 3.841, therefore 

H01/Null hypothesis as formulated 

above in this study is rejected at P<0.05. 

This shows there is a perfect agreement 

between our earlier hypotheses (H01 and 

H02) which deny the existence of no 

relationship between the two variables. 

Since the two Null hypotheses have been 

rejected by our test, it further reveals that 

the quest for political power struggle 

during electioneering process among 

Politicians from the North West zone is 

a consequence of rising wave of 

insurgency vis-à-vis arms hostilities in 

the.  Hence, there is a nexus between 

poverty, inequality with other forms of 

social neglects Arms/Non arms 

smuggled which can be attributed to the 

unceasing/rising nature insurgency in 

the zone.  Our analysis from North-West 

zone in Nigeria shows that the two null 

hypotheses using arms and non-arms 

smuggled dichotomy were rejected at P< 

0.05 level of significance and chi-square 

table below gives a reliable credence to 

the above test: 

 

Table 1:  Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in North West (Sokoto and Niger 

States) 

 

Frequency Observed (FO)  

            SEX Arms Smuggled  Non-Arms 

Smuggled 

Total Column 

MALE  26 24 50 

FEMALE 10 40 50 

Total Row 36 64 
100 

Overall total 

          X2 =  
(𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2

𝐹𝐸
     as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency 

Observed, FE= Frequency Expected. 

Expected Frequency 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

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Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

 

To calculate (FE), we use     
𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿  𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊

𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿
 

 

                 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐

𝑭𝑬
 

                  26 

                 10 

                  24 

                  40 

18 

18 

32 

32 

     8 

    -8 

    -8 

     8 

     64 

     64 

     64 

     64 

          3.   5556  

          3.5556 

             2.0 

             2.0 

 X2=   11.1 

 

Null hypotheses is rejected by the test 

since X2=  11.1> 3.841 (Critical value) 

where it denies the existence of 

relationship between arms smuggled and 

non-arms smuggled and the rising wave 

of insurgency in Nigeria having 

subjected our null hypothesis to analysis 

with the use of two indices/variables. 

 

A. NORTH-EAST ZONE: Test of 

significance of the Null 

Hypotheses (H01) 

This study utilizes the first null 

hypotheses above from the descriptively 

and interpretively analyzed so that the 

null hypothesis could be subjected to 

more inferential statistical analyses. 

Hence, the first hypotheses raised were 

tested for significance at P< 0.05 which 

was analyzed and interpreted 

effectively. In the North-East zone of 

Nigeria where respondents were 

sampled from Borno and Adamawa 

states, the two indices/variables of 

(Arms-proliferation and Non-arms 

proliferation dichotomy) used for our 

analysis in this zone are different from 

the North-west due to the high rate of 

Boko Haram insurgency in the North-

east. These two indices/variables are 

only used to explain our H01/ first null 

hypotheses. 

 

 

H01: That there is no significance 

relationship between Arms-

proliferations/Non-arms proliferation 

and power struggle during 

electioneering process due to its (Rising 

wave of Insurgency) multiplier effects in 

the society can be blamed or linked to 

the incessant and unwarranted killings 

and violent conflicts amidst loss of lives 

and properties in the zone. This 

hypothesis was tested for significance 

using Chi-square test and below table 

shows the synopsis of the analysis in 

which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 

1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value 

(CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2=    

4.39 

 

H02: That there is no significance 

relationship/difference between Arms-

proliferations/Non-arms proliferation 

and Social inequality, poverty, 

unemployment and other forms of social 

neglect as to whether due to (Rising 

wave of Insurgency) unmitigated 

killings and loss of lives and properties 



 

 

64 | P a g e  

 

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Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 
ISSN: Print 2811-2717                                                                            https://journal.escetjerps.com 

 
 
 

 

and these can induce illegal arms 

possession in the North-East zone using 

Borno and Adamawa states as sampled 

subjects for this study.  The calculated 

value of X2 is less than critical table 

value (CV),  4.39 is greater than 3.841.  

This null hypothesis is rejected at P < 

0.05 because calculated value of X2 is 

greater than critical value from the table 

and hence H01 is rejected. 

 

Interpretation for HO1 and H02:  

Since X2  is greater than CV,   4.39 is 

greater than 3.841, therefore H01/Null 

hypothesis as formulated above in this 

study H0 is rejected at P<0.05. This 

shows there is a perfect agreement 

between our earlier hypotheses (H0) and 

the variables (arms/ non-arms 

proliferation) which shows that there is 

a relationship between the null 

hypotheses and two variables/indices 

used to measure the rising wave of 

insurgency in Nigeria. Since the Null 

hypotheses has been rejected by d test, it 

further reveals the nexus between 

political power struggle during 

electioneering process among 

Politicians from the North East zone as 

well as issues of poverty, social 

inequality amidst unemployment do 

have a direct consequence for the rising 

wave of insurgency vis-à-vis arms 

hostilities in the Zone.  Hence, there is a 

direct link between arms/non-arms 

proliferation and political power 

struggle in the North East zone.  Our 

analysis from North-East zone in 

Nigeria shows that the first null 

hypotheses using arms 

proliferation/non-arms proliferation 

dichotomy were rejected using 0.05 

level of significance and chi-square table 

below gives a reliable credence to our 

analysis above: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in North-East (Borno and Adamawa 

States)  

Frequency Observed (FO) 

            SEX Arms Proliferation  Non-Arms Proliferation Total Column 

         MALE 35 14 49 

FEMALE 26 25 51 

Total Row 61 39 
100 

Overall total 

          X2 =  
(𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2

𝐹𝐸
     as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency 

Observed, FE= Frequency Expected. 

Expected Frequency 



 

 

65 | P a g e  

 

Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? 

Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

 

To calculate (FE), we use     
𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿  𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊

𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿
 

 

                 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐

𝑭𝑬
 

                   35 

                  14 

                  26 

                  25 

29.89 

19.11 

31.11 

19.89 

     5.11 

    -5.11 

    -5.11 

     5.11 

   26.1121 

   26.1121 

   26.1121 

   26.1121 

          0.8736 

          1.3664 

          0.8393 

          1.3128 

 X2=    4.39 

 

Since the calculated value of X2   is 

greater than CV,   4.39 is greater than 

3.841,  Null hypothesis is rejected and 

this shows there is existence of  perfect 

relationship between arms/non-arms 

proliferation and the rising wave of 

insurgency in Nigeria having tested the 

null hypotheses earlier with the two 

variables/indices used. 

 

B. NORTH-CENTRAL ZONE:    

Test of significance of the Null 

Hypotheses (H0) 

In this zone, this study utilized 

cumulative responses of the sampled 

respondents with the use of 

indices/variables such as Trans-border 

Crime and Legitimate Trade in Kwara 

and Benue States where the two 

hypotheses were analyzed descriptively 

and interpretively. Hence, the null 

hypotheses are subjected to a more 

inferential statistical analysis and these 

hypotheses were tested for significance 

at P< 0.05 which was analyzed and 

interpreted effectively. In the North-

Central zone of Nigeria, Trans-border 

Crime and Legitimate dichotomy were 

used to interrogate the two null 

hypotheses. 

              

H01: there is no significant relationship 

between Trans-border Crime and 

Legitimate Trade as to whether due to its 

(Rising wave of Insurgency) 

pervasiveness that political power 

struggle during electioneering process in 

Nigeria will not enhance arms hostilities 

within the North-Central zone.  As 

shown below in this study, the first null 

hypothesis is rejected where X2  greater 

than CV, 4.81 greater than 3.841 at P 

<0.05.  Hence, our test rejects the null 

hypothesis of this study and accept the 

existence of relationship between the 

subject-matter and the two 

indices/variables which was used to do 

the analysis. 

           

H02: That there is no significance 

relationship between Trans-border 

Crime/ Legitimate Trade and Political 

power struggle as well as poverty, social 

inequality as to whether due to its 

(Rising wave of Insurgency) multiplier 

effects in the society can be blamed or 

linked to the incessant and unwarranted 



 

 

66 | P a g e  

 

ESCET  
Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 
ISSN: Print 2811-2717                                                                            https://journal.escetjerps.com 

 
 
 

 

violent conflicts in the zone. This 

hypothesis was tested for significance 

using Chi-square test and below table 

shows the synopsis of the analysis in 

which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 

1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value 

(CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2=    

4.81 

 

Interpretation for H01 and HO2: Since 

X2 is greater than CV,  4.81 less than 

3.841, therefore H01/Null hypothesis as 

formulated above in this study is 

accepted at P<0.05. This shows there is 

a perfect agreement between our earlier 

hypotheses (H01 and H02) which accept 

the existence of no relationship between 

the two variables. Since the two Null 

hypotheses have been rejected by d test, 

it further reveals that the quest for 

political power struggle during 

electioneering process and issues of 

poverty, inequality and other social 

neglect has a direct consequence of 

trans-border crime and legitimate trade 

in the North-Central.  Hence, there is a 

nexus or direct link between political 

power struggles; poverty, inequality 

with other forms of social neglects and 

Trans-border Crime/Legitimate trade in 

the North-Central zone which can be 

attributed to the unceasing/rising nature 

insurgency in the zone.  Our analysis 

from North-Central zone in Nigeria 

shows that the two null hypotheses using 

Trans-border Crime/Legitimate Trade 

dichotomy were rejected using 0.05 

level of significance and chi-square table 

below gives a reliable credence to the 

test: 

 

Table 3:  Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in North-central (Kwara and Benue 

states)  

Frequency Observed (FO) 

            SEX Trans-border 

Crime 

Legitimate Border 

Trade 

Total Column 

           MALE 32 19 51 

FEMALE 20 29 49 

Total Row 52 48 
100 

Overall total 

X2 =  
(𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2

𝐹𝐸
     as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, FE= Frequency 

Expected. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

67 | P a g e  

 

Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? 

Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

 

 Frequency Expected (FE) 

To calculate (FE), we use     
𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿  𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊

𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿
 

 

                 F0     FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐

𝑭𝑬
 

                  32 

                  20 

                  19 

                  29 

    26.52           

    25.48 

    24.48 

    23.52 

     5.48 

    -5.48 

    -5.48 

     5.48 

  30.0304 

  30.0304  

   30.0304 

   30.0304 

         1.1324 

         1.1786 

         1.2267 

         1.2768 

 X2=   4.81  

  

Since calculated value of   X2 is greater 

than CV,  4.81 > 3.841, therefore 

H0/Null hypothesis is rejected because it 

denies the existence of relationship 

between trans-border crime/legitimate 

trade and the rising wave of insurgency/ 

communal violence in Nigeria having 

rejected the initial hypotheses 

formulated for the study. 

 

C. SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE:    Test of 

significance of the Null 

Hypotheses (H0) 

From this zone where ethnic militia 

activities are very rampant, this study 

uses arms and non-arms smuggled 

dichotomy to analyze its two hypotheses 

above descriptively and interpretively. 

Hence, the null hypotheses are subjected 

to more inferential statistical analyses. 

Hence, the hypotheses raised were tested 

for significance at P< 0.05 which was 

analyzed and interpreted effectively. In 

the south-south zone of Nigeria, Arms 

and Non-Arms struggled dichotomy 

were used to interrogate the two null 

hypotheses. The two sampled states are 

River state and Cross river states in the 

Niger-Delta zone. 

              

H01: There is no significant relationship 

between Arms Smuggled and Non-Arms 

Smuggled as to whether due to its 

(Rising wave of Insurgency) 

pervasiveness that political power 

struggle during electioneering process in 

Nigeria will not enhance arms hostilities 

within the North-West zone.  As shown 

below in this study, the first null 

hypothesis is rejected where X2 > CV,   

4.0 > 3.841 at P <0.05  

           

H02: There is no significance 

relationship between Arms/Non-

smuggled and poverty, inequality as to 

whether due to its (Rising wave of 

Insurgency) multiplier effects in the 

society can be blamed or linked to the 

incessant and unwarranted violent 

conflicts in the zone. This hypothesis 

was tested for significance using Chi-

square test and below table shows the 

synopsis of the analysis in which α= 

0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) 



 

 

68 | P a g e  

 

ESCET  
Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 
ISSN: Print 2811-2717                                                                            https://journal.escetjerps.com 

 
 
 

 

= (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) = 

3.841 where the calculated X2= 4.0 

 

Interpretation for H01 and HO2: X2 = 

4.0 since   X2  is greater than CV, 4.0 > 

3.841, therefore H0/Null hypothesis is 

rejected therefore the two/Null 

hypothesis as formulated above in this 

study are rejected at P<0.05. This shows 

there is a perfect agreement between our 

earlier hypotheses (H01 and H02) which 

attests to the existence of  relationship 

between the two variables. Since the two 

Null hypotheses have been rejected by d 

test, it further reveals that the quest for 

political power struggle during 

electioneering process among 

Politicians from the South-south zone is 

a consequence of rising wave of 

insurgency vis-à-vis arms hostilities in 

the.  Hence, there is a nexus between 

poverty, inequality with other forms of 

social neglects Arms/Non arms 

smuggled which can be attributed to the 

unceasing/rising nature insurgency in 

the zone.  Our analysis from south-south 

zone in Nigeria shows that the two null 

hypotheses using arms and non-arms 

smuggled dichotomy were rejected at 

0.05 level of significance and chi-square 

table below gives a reliable credence to 

our analysis: 

 

 

Table 4: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in South-South zone (River state and 

Cross    River  State)  

            SEX Arms Smuggled  Non-Arms 

Smuggled 

Total Column 

MALE 30 20 50 

FEMALE 20 30   50 

Total Row 50 50 
100 

Overall total 

        X2 =  
(𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2

𝐹𝐸
     as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, FE= 

Frequency Expected. 

Expected Frequency 

To calculate (FE), we use     
𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿  𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊

𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

69 | P a g e  

 

Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? 

Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

 

                 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐

𝑭𝑬
 

                  30 

                  20 

                  20 

                  30 

25 

25 

25 

25 

     5 

    -5 

    -5 

     5 

     25 

     25 

     25 

     25 

            1  

            1 

            1 

            1 

 X2=   4.0 

 

Since 

since calculated value of X2 is greater 

than CV,   4.0  is greater than 3.841, 

therefore H0/Null hypothesis is rejected 

and this shows there is relationship 

between arms/non-arms smuggle and 

insurgency in Nigeria having tested the 

null hypotheses with the use of two 

indices/variables in this study.  

 

D. SOUTH-EAST ZONE:    Test of 

significance of the Null 

Hypotheses (H0) 

In this zone, this study uses arms 

proliferation and non-arms 

proliferation dichotomy from Abia 

state and Anambra (Aguleri and 

Umuleri areas) to analyze its two 

hypotheses above descriptively and 

interpretively. Hence, the null 

hypotheses are subjected to more 

inferential statistical analyses. 

Hence, the hypotheses raised were 

tested for significance at P< 0.05 

which was analyzed and interpreted 

effectively. In the south-east zone of 

Nigeria, Arms and Non-Arms 

struggled dichotomy were used to 

interrogate the two null hypotheses. 

 

H01: There is no significant 

relationship between Arms 

proliferation/Non-Arms Smuggled 

and political power struggle in this 

area to determine as to whether due 

to its (incessant inter-communal 

violence) pervasiveness that 

political power struggle during 

electioneering process in Nigeria 

will enhance arms hostilities within 

the North-West zone.  As shown 

below in this study, the first null 

hypothesis is rejected where X2 is 

less than CV,   0.37 less than 3.841 

at P <0.05  

 

H02: There is no significance 

relationship between Arms 

proliferation/Non-proliferation and 

poverty, social inequality, 

unemployment in this area as to 

whether due to its (boundary 

disputes over lands) multiplier 

effects in the society can be blamed 

or linked to the incessant and 

unwarranted violent conflicts in the 

zone. This hypothesis was tested for 

significance using Chi-square test 

and below table shows the synopsis 

of the analysis in which α= 0.05, 

Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) = 

(2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) 

= 3.841 where the calculated X2= 4.0 



 

 

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ESCET  
Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 
ISSN: Print 2811-2717                                                                            https://journal.escetjerps.com 

 
 
 

 

E. Interpretation for H01 and HO2: 

X2 = 0.37 since   X2 is greater than 

CV, 0.37 is greater than 3.841, 

therefore H0/Null hypothesis is 

accepted, therefore the two/Null 

hypothesis as formulated above in 

this study are rejected at P<0.05. 

This shows there is a disagreement 

between our earlier hypotheses (H01 

and H02) which accept the existence 

of no relationship between the two 

variables. Since the two Null 

hypotheses have been accepted by d 

test, it further reveals that the quest 

for political power struggle during 

electioneering process among 

Politicians from the South-east zone 

has no nexus direct consequence to 

incessant inter-communal violence 

and arms hostilities in the south-east.  

Also, our text above accepted the 

existence of no relationship between 

poverty, inequality with other forms 

of social neglects Arms 

proliferation/Non arms proliferation 

in this zone.  Our analysis from 

south-east zone in Nigeria shows 

that the two null hypotheses using 

arms proliferation and non-arms 

proliferation dichotomy were 

rejected at 0.05 level of significance 

and chi-square table below gives a 

reliable credence to our analysis: 

 

 

Table 5: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in South-South zone (Abia and 

Anambra States) 

Frequency Observed (FO) 

            SEX Arms Proliferation  Non-Arms 

Proliferation 

Total Column 

           MALE 34 18 52 

FEMALE 20 28 48 

Total Row 54 46 
100 

Overall total 

          X2 =  
(𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2

𝐹𝐸
     as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency 

Observed, FE= Frequency Expected. 

Expected Frequency 

To calculate (FE), we use     
𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿  𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊

𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿
 

                 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐

𝑭𝑬
 

                  34 

                  20 

                  18 

                  28 

28.08 

25.92 

23.92 

22.08 

     5.92 

     -5.92 

      1.5 

     -1.5 

    35.0464 

    35.0464 

    35.0464 

    35.0464 

        1.2481  

        1.3521 

        1.4652 

         1.5872 

 X2=   5.65 



 

 

71 | P a g e  

 

Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? 

Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji   O. Adedeji 

 

 

X2   = 5.65  Since calculated value of X2 

less than CV,    0.37 < 3.841, therefore 

H0/Null hypothesis is rejected which 

shows there is a nexus between the two 

indices/variables used to analyse the 

study and arms proliferation/non-arms 

proliferation in Nigeria using South-

south zone as a sampled survey for this 

study. 

 

E:  SOUTH-WEST ZONE  (A):    Test 

of significance of the Null Hypotheses 

(H0) 

Using sampled respondents from 

Idiroko in Ogun state via Benin 

Republic route, this study utilized Trans-

border and Legitimate Trade dichotomy 

to explain its two hypotheses above from 

the descriptive and interpretive point of 

view and also subjected the null 

hypothesis to more inferential statistical 

analyses. Hence, the two hypotheses 

raised were tested for significance at P< 

0.05 In Ogun state/Idiroko/ Seme border 

via Benin Rep as part of the South-West 

zone of Nigeria, Trans-border trade and 

legitimate trade dichotomy were used to 

analyze the two null hypotheses. 

 

H01: There is no significant relationship 

between Trans-border crime/Legitimate 

Trade as to determine whether due to its 

(arms proliferation across Nigerian 

borders) frequent border conflicts that is 

usually occasioned by political power 

struggle during electioneering process in 

Nigeria will enhance arms hostilities 

within the Nigerian border at Idiroko in 

Ogun state via Benin Republic route 

from the South-West zone.  Evidence 

from the sample survey conducted as it 

is shown below in this study reveals that, 

the first null hypothesis is rejected where 

calculated value of X2  is greater than  

Critical table  value (CV),   4.92 > 

3.841 at P <0.05.  This shows that there 

is a perfect agreement between our first 

hypotheses and the indices/variables that 

we used to measure or determine 

whether political power struggled in the 

South-west Nigeria has a nexus with 

arms and non-arms smuggled in the 

zone.  It can be explained further since 

our test has rejected the initial null 

hypothesis that trans-border crime and 

legitimate trade have a high implication 

as to the cause of arms hostilities that 

have been ravaging Nigeria for several 

years most especially during the 

electioneering campaign process in 

Nigeria. 

 

H02: That there is no significance 

relationship between Trans-border 

crime/ Legitimate trade in the Ogun 

state/Idiroko via Seme border/ Benin 

Rep route in the south-west and poverty, 

inequality, and other forms of social 

neglects as to whether due to the (Rising 

wave of border conflicts/Insurgency) 

multiplier effects in the society that can 

be blamed or linked to the incessant and 

unwarranted violent conflicts in the 

zone. This hypothesis was tested for 

significance using Chi-square test and 

below table shows the synopsis of the 

analysis in which α= 0.05, Degree of 

freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 

1, Critical Value (CV) = 3.841 where the 

calculated X2= 4.92 and our test here 



 

 

72 | P a g e  

 

ESCET  
Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 
ISSN: Print 2811-2717                                                                            https://journal.escetjerps.com 

 
 
 

 

rejected the null hypothesis that is earlier 

formulated which deny the existence of 

relationship between the 

indices/variables used and the null 

hypothesis.    This is an indication that 

trans-border conflicts occasioned by 

political power struggled and 

unemployment/poverty has a direct link 

to the rising wave of insurgency and 

other ethnic militancy struggle in 

Nigeria.  

 

Interpretation for H01 and HO2: Since 

our calculated value of X2 is greater than 

CV,   4.92 > 3.841, therefore H01/Null 

hypothesis as formulated above in this 

study is rejected at P<0.05. This shows 

there is a perfect agreement between our 

earlier hypotheses (H01 and H02) which 

deny the existence of no relationship 

between the two variables. Since the two 

Null hypotheses have been rejected by d 

test, it further reveals that the quest for 

political power struggle during 

electioneering process among 

Politicians from the South-West zone is 

a consequence of rising wave of 

insurgency vis-à-vis arms hostilities in 

the.  Hence, there is a nexus between 

poverty, inequality with other forms of 

social neglects where trans-border crime 

and legitimate trade can be attributed to 

the unceasing/rising nature insurgency 

in the zone.  Our analysis from South-

West zone in Nigeria shows that the two 

null hypotheses using arms and non-

arms smuggled dichotomy were rejected 

at P< 0.05 level of significance and chi-

square table below gives a reliable 

credence to the above analysis: 

 

Table 6:  Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in South-west zone (Ogun state/Idiroko 

and Seme Border via Benin Rep) 

Frequency Observed (FO) 

            SEX Trans-border 

Crime 

Legitimate Border 

Trade 

Total Column 

          MALE 24                 25 49 

FEMALE 14 37 51   

Total Row 38 62 
100 

Overall total 

        X2 =  
(𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2

𝐹𝐸
     as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed,    

     Frequency Expected (FE) 

To calculate (FE), we use     
𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿  𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊

𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿
 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

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                 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐

𝑭𝑬
 

                  24 

                  25 

                  14 

                  37 

18.62 

30.38 

19.38 

31.62 

      5.38 

      -5.38 

      -5.38 

      5.38 

     28.94 

     28.94 

     28.94 

     28.94 

          1.5542 

          0.9526 

          1.4933 

          0.9152 

 X2=    4.92 

 

 

Since calculated value of   X2 is greater 

than CV, 4.92 is greater than 3.841, 

therefore H0/Null hypothesis is rejected 

and it reveals the existence of 

relationship the trans-border 

crime/legitimate trade and the rising 

wave of insurgency in Nigeria where the 

two variables/indices were used to test 

the hypothese raised for this study. 

 

 SOUTH-WEST ZONE  (B):    Test of 

significance of the Null Hypotheses 

(H0) 

Using sampled respondents from Lagos 

state/High sea, this study utilized Trans-

border and Legitimate Trade dichotomy 

to explain its two hypotheses above from 

the descriptive and interpretive point of 

view and also subjected the null 

hypothesis to more inferential statistical 

analyses. Hence, the two hypotheses 

raised were tested for significance at P< 

0.05 In Lagos state/High Sea in the 

South-West zone of Nigeria, Trans-

border trade and legitimate trade 

dichotomy were used to analyze the two 

null hypotheses. 

 

H01: There is no significant relationship 

between Trans-border crime/Legitimate 

Trade as to determine whether due to its  

(arms proliferation across Nigerian 

borders) frequent border conflicts that is 

usually occasioned by political power 

struggle during electioneering process in 

Nigeria will enhance arms hostilities 

within the Nigerian border in Lagos state 

and other High sea areas that link to 

Lagos in the South-West zone.  

Evidence from the sample survey 

conducted as it is shown below in this 

study reveals that, the first null 

hypothesis is rejected where calculated 

value of X2  is greater than  Critical 

table  value (CV),   4.94 > 3.841 at P 

<0.05.  This shows that there is a perfect 

agreement between our first hypotheses 

and the indices/variables that we used to 

measure or determine whether political 

power struggled in the South-west 

Nigeria has a nexus with arms and non-

arms smuggled in the zone.  It can be 

explained further since our test has 

rejected the initial null hypothesis that 

trans-border crime and legitimate trade 

have a high implication as to the cause 

of arms hostilities that have been 

ravaging Nigeria for several years most 

especially during the electioneering 

campaign process in Nigeria. 

 



 

 

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H02: That there is no significance 

relationship between Trans-border 

crime/ Legitimate trade in the Lagos 

state/High Sea route to the south-west 

and poverty, inequality, and other forms 

of social neglects as to whether due to 

the (Rising wave of border 

conflicts/Insurgency) multiplier effects 

in the society that can be blamed or 

linked to the incessant and unwarranted 

violent conflicts in the zone. This 

hypothesis was tested for significance 

using Chi-square test and below table 

shows the synopsis of the analysis in 

which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 

1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value 

(CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2= 

4.94 and our test here rejected the null 

hypothesis that is earlier formulated 

which deny the existence of relationship 

between the indices/variables used and 

the null hypothesis.    This is an 

indication that trans-border conflicts 

occasioned by political power struggled 

and unemployment/poverty has a direct 

link to the rising wave of insurgency and 

other ethnic militancy struggle in 

Nigeria.  

 

Interpretation for H01 and HO2: Since 

our calculated value of X2 is greater than 

CV,   4.94 > 3.841, therefore H01/Null 

hypothesis as formulated above in this 

study is rejected at P<0.05. This shows 

there is a perfect agreement between our 

earlier hypotheses (H01 and H02) which 

deny the existence of no relationship 

between the two variables. Since the two 

Null hypotheses have been rejected by d 

test, it further reveals that the quest for 

political power struggle during 

electioneering process among 

Politicians from the South-West zone is 

a consequence of rising wave of 

insurgency vis-à-vis arms hostilities in 

the.  Hence, there is a nexus between 

poverty, inequality with other forms of 

social neglects where trans-border crime 

and legitimate trade can be attributed to 

the unceasing/rising nature insurgency 

in the zone.  Our analysis from South-

West zone in Nigeria shows that the two 

null hypotheses using arms and non-

arms smuggled dichotomy were rejected 

at P< 0.05 level of significance and chi-

square table below gives a reliable 

credence to the above analysis: 

 

 Table 7: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in South-South zone (Lagos state/High 

Sea) Frequency Observed (FO) 

 SEX Trans-border Crime Legitimate Border 

Trade 

Total Column 

MALE  27 16 43 

FEMALE  23 34 57   

Total Row 50 50 
100 

Overall total 

        X2 =  
(𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2

𝐹𝐸
     as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, FE= 

Frequency Expected. 

 Frequency Expected (FE)  



 

 

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To calculate (FE), we use     
𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿  𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊

𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿
 

 

                 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐

𝑭𝑬
 

                   27 

                   16 

                   23 

                   34 

21.5 

21.5 

28.5 

28.5 

      5.5 

     -5.5 

     -5.5 

      5.5 

   30.25   

   30.25 

   30.25 

   30.25 

          1.4070 

          1.4070 

          1.0614 

          1.0614 

 X2=    4.94 

    

X2 = 4.94 calculated value of X2 is 

greater than Critical table value (CV),   

4.94 > 3.841,  this implies that the null 

hypothesis is rejected and further reveals 

that there is a relationship between the 

trans-border-crime/legitimate trade and 

the rising wave of insurgency in Nigeria 

as occasioned by political power 

struggle during electioneering process, 

social inequality, unemployment, and 

other forms of social neglects in Nigeria. 

  

NIGERIA AND THE ISSUES OF 

SMALL ARMS PROLIFERATION: 

A BAIT OR TREND 

The Nigerian environment is not new to 

the presence of small arms and light 

weapons. Apart from the ended civil war 

in 1970, Berman (2014), in an arms 

survey revealed that armed groups 

obtain small arms from several sources 

among which are peace operations, from 

poorly guarded state stockpiles and from 

gullible security agents. With the highest 

and worst porous border in Sub-Saharan 

Africa, starting from  the Nigeria border 

to Cameroon, (from Akpabioyo in 

Calabar up to Gembu in Saudana local 

government in Adamawa and Borno to 

Cameroon border in the North East), the 

Nigeria- Chad –Niger border (stretching 

from Sokoto, Kano, Kastina, Gombe, 

Yobe to Borno), the Nigeria – Benin –

Togo borders (beginning from Lagos, 

Ogun, Osun, Kwara, Niger up to Sokoto 

states) informed of a loose territory that 

infiltration and trespassing cannot be 

comprehended daily. A situation that it 

is possible to say, that the Nigeria state 

stands at the mercy of each individual 

and groups who are in constant 

suspicion of each other’s’ might, like in 

the days of cold war paradigm. This is 

because the number of weapons in the 

hand of the individual and/or group 

outnumbered the armed forces and 

police arms and ammunition in their 

armouries combined, except the latter’s 

armoured tanks. 

 

With several challenges in the past, 

which bothered on coups and counter 

coups with importation of arms, political 

instabilities, inter-ethnic and religious 

clashes in the ‘90s, the military 

annulment of June 12, 1993 elections, 

the activities of the ethnic militias of 

OPC, APC, Bakassi Boys and Egbesu; 



 

 

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the activities of militants like MOSOP, 

MEND and NDVF insurgence in the 

Niger Delta and the MASSOB among 

others (Ikelegbe, 2014), to which the 

country was highly militarized. A 

situation that sees the embrace of 

democracy in 1999 as an eye opener for 

everyone, people and group to agitate for 

their rights and seek justice where 

possible. These conditions and processes 

that seem to have quickened the 

possession of arms illegally by many 

were unchecked. Coupled with the kind 

of hate exhibited against the military by 

both the over-caged political class, the 

depressed and depraved in the society, to 

which the hastiness at the  

demilitarization, dislocation of military 

locations and barracks and lessening of 

command structural powers among 

others helped the easy flow of small 

arms and ammunitions into the country 

by dubious old brigade politicians and 

their tutored - new breeds that are more 

deadly and over adventurous than ever 

were seen manipulating things , while 

pretending to allow the military to go 

back to the barracks without any 

checkmating at all are part of the 

outcome of where we are today. 

 

However, to further examine the 

presence of small arms and light 

weapons proliferations in Nigeria, the 

following points shall be considered: 

 

(i) Politicians and Illicit Arms 

Agreeing that power is the currency of 

politics (Deustch, 1957), and that to 

acquire political power based on interest 

aggregation (Frankel, 1993), that the 

average Nigerian politician tends to be 

ruthless with intimidation, 

manipulation, propaganda and scheming 

(Plano and Riggs, 1953) against the 

would be opponents. Premised on this, it 

is evident that some politician spent 

huge amount of money in acquiring 

small arms to fortify self and march their 

words and intents in achieving desired 

goals with violence. 

 

Thus, ICG (2009), in its arms survey 

noted that between 2002 and 2007 that 

over 35% of illegal small arms and light 

weapons acquired into Nigeria by some 

fastidious and over ambitious politicians 

were in a bid to gain political power into 

the different elective offices in the 

Nigerian new democratic dispensation. 

A revelation that was confirmed by 

Davis (2014), when he stated in an 

interview with the Australian 

Broadcasting Service that one thing he 

noticed on arrival in 2004 in Nigeria was 

that politicians at the beginning of every 

electioneering year import and amass 

weapons to pursue political power, using 

thugs and militia groups. Thus, implying 

that arms acquisition in Nigeria is seen 

as a trend amongst political actors. And 

that whereby a potential politician fails 

to acquire arms, then, he or she has not 

started the journey toward power 

acquisition. In the same continuum, 

Obasi (2014), further argued that both 

State armed groups and Non-state armed 

groups like the militias and militant 

groups through the help of Retired 

Servicemen in the different ethnic 

groups commonly aid the possession of 

illegal arms as they help radicalized, 



 

 

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indoctrinated and facilitated with greed 

and ideological argument of self-

protection, which could equally be seen 

as a planted taproot of arms, a bait for 

violence.   In the same period, arms 

struggles were noted among some 

opposing political parties in Osun, Oyo, 

Ondo, Anambra, Lagos, Plateau, 

Kaduna, Kano, Enugu, AkwaIbom, 

Rivers, Kogi and Benue States among 

others. These catchments of arms and 

light weapons are still missing in actions 

as they are not seen, retrieved or 

recovered by the law enforcement agents 

from the indecent politicians till today 

while those that felt into the hand of 

touts and thugs are still being used to 

terrorize the general society. Merging 

these contentions with the observation of 

Danjibo (2014), while quoting from the 

studies of Mensah (2002) and Obasi 

(2002), as noted, that it is very clear that 

there are between one and three million 

small arms and light weapons circulating 

in Nigeria, which is excluded from the 

figures before the crisis in Libya and the 

terrorist activities of Boko Haram. 

Thereby, agreeing with Vendley and Ali 

(2010) that small arms and light 

weapons are easy to carry. Just as 

recently demonstrated by the PDP 

governorship candidate for Lagos state 

in 2015 at Iju road campaign, where the 

thugs and policemen were shooting 

sporadically because of the handiness of 

the arms that they were carrying. Small 

arms cause massive and widespread 

death and injury. Easy to use, conceal 

and maintain. They are primary tools of 

political violence in almost every 

conflict where the innocent suffer most 

 (ii) Transborder Trade On Small 

Arms and Light Weapon 

Trans-border trade in small arms and 

light weapons, apart from the trade in 

blood diamond and gold seems to be 

more lucrative even over illicit drug and 

human trafficking because over there at 

the border line these items are 

considered as both trend and bait. The 

buyers and sellers come with different 

intention as the purpose and dictates of 

it centred on power, money, violence, 

protection and control. With Nigeria, 

being a transit route for drug, the trade in 

small arms puts the country’s territorial 

boundaries at a great danger. Moreover, 

with the end of the Libyan war and Arab 

spring, all the arms used in that war were 

shifted down to the Sahel region, to 

which the Northern part of the country 

has witnessed a terrible arms struggle 

with the existence of Boko Haram 

insurgence. Coupled with the several 

porous border and corrupt security 

agencies, illegal arms importation and 

trade have been on the high side. The 

Boko Haram sects’ relationship with the 

Tuaregrebels in Mali, the Egyptian 

connection, the rebel group in 

Mauritania, the Muslim rebel group 

inCentral African Republic and their 

recent engaged relationship with the 

Islamist State in Iraq (IS) make the in-

flow of small arms and light weapon a 

daily occurrence. Thus, thereby 

supporting the view of Boutwell and 

Klare (2000), that trans-border trade and 

crime enhance the transfer of deadly 

weapons from country to country, just as 

their ownership is transferred among 

fighters, security forces and war 



 

 

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profiteers. It is obvious also, that once 

weapon enter an area, they can remain 

there for many years. Guns in particular 

have a functional lifetime of many years. 

Small arms change the dynamic of 

conflict instantly (Vendley and Ali, 

2010) argued. 

 

The question that no one seems to be 

attending to is, what effect is the role of 

the ECOWAS moratorium/Convention 

document of 1998, signed by each 

member states in 2006? The moratorium 

is strategy devised to control the spread 

and misuse of small arms. This legal 

binding document prohibits the spread, 

misuse, conceal or otherwise the related 

material and the small arms and light 

weapon and their ammunition (Badmus, 

2009). This is due to the fact that while 

members of the ECOWAS are 

committed not to import, support or 

manufacture small arms and light 

weapon, the arms had continued to enter 

the sub-region to fanned conflicts owing 

to the joy the people derive in acquiring 

it as a bait and trends. Meaning that there 

is mistrust somewhere, as that betrayal 

of trust now affects Nigeria with the 

flooding of small arms and light 

weapons on the streets of the country. 

 

(iii) Poverty, Unemployment and 

Easy Usage of Arms 

According to Tabaiyaka (2003), Africa 

remains the most food deficient 

continent in the world, to which Nigeria 

house over 46% level of poor people, 

with a growing unemployment rate of 

over 55% of the population, despite her 

rich wealth. The question is: what is 

Nigeria government doing with her 

wealth and endowed natural resources? 

This is because according to Sach (1998) 

and Tabaiyaka (2003), the prediction is 

so grim, that unless radical measures are 

adopted, the story might be different. In 

addition, Danjibo (2014) notes that it is 

not only on what goes into the mouth, 

but the process of obtaining those scarce 

natural resources like who owns the 

parcel of land among others. He 

concluded by saying that it is the poverty 

of the owner of property and space that 

the Ife versus Modakeke communal 

conflicts had hinged on for years in 

destroying the society. That, in one of 

the face-off, 1995/1996, that people 

were amazed by the quantum of SALWs 

that were used during the period of 

conflict. Thereby, underlining the 

available evidence that poverty allows 

for easy manipulation of the people to 

pick or sought to acquire arms to 

fighting a course since the people has 

seen the acquisition of arms as trend and 

a bait to confronting the enemy. The 

youths are so impatient and frustrated 

that they can now accept to fight on the 

side of insurgence or sees themselves as 

veritable tools for war or crisis, so as to 

escape the sting of poverty and 

unemployment (Galadima, 2014). Thus, 

increasing the growing strength and 

number of the militia groups, militants 

and even those that joined the Boko 

Haram insurgence could be traced to 

these shortcomings of unemployment 

and poverty. In the same continuum, 

Badmus (2009), noted that in the midst 

of poverty and lack of wants that the 

spread of small arms prevail faster. Their 



 

 

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effects are devastating as many agree to 

pick up arms in support of bad and 

corrupt leaders thereby yielding to the 

awaiting arms bait pivot to go ahead 

with arms violence. In a vicious cycle, 

they are both the cause and effect of 

violence. They not only kill the 

innocent, they also maim, prolong 

conflict, choke development and deepen 

poverty. 

 

(iv). Internal Mechanism 

Working against the numerous 

government policies on reducing the in-

flow of small arms and light weapon into 

the country is the devious effect of 

internal mechanism. Despite, the fact 

that Nigeria is a signatory to several of 

the International Documents, 

Conventions, Protocols, Embagos, 

Political Code of Conducts, 

Frameworks, Moratorium and 

Declarations among others, it still sound 

incomprehensive, negating and absurd 

that she could not curtail the huge in-

flow of illicit arms into the country 

owing to disloyalty and corruption. This 

deception, mistrust and betrayal that has 

aided arms as trend and bait in the 

country are pinned on the failure of the 

various security agencies in 

checkmating the flooding of the 

country’s border with illicit trades and 

banditry. The custom and excise 

department might not be sincere in 

implementing to letter the new ports 

inspection policies, just as their 

compatriots at the border might have 

pretended to be unaware of the bringing 

in of illegal firearms and prohibited 

materials into the country unchecked. It 

is only in some cases of where the 

identified smuggler fails to settle by way 

of gratification that arrest and possible 

public display of such are seen in the 

media. The custom and other security 

agencies at the border also are careless 

about the level of infiltration into the 

country by unknown arms banditry or 

people who at times disguises as cattle 

herdsmen or pastoral who also smuggle 

in small arms into the country 

unmonitored.  

 

In the armed forces, the ethics of the job 

are not only slipping off from the 

command structure, but internal 

wrangling and disloyalty seem to have 

pervaded the ranks and files. The 

possibility that many soldiers and 

officers’ loyalties are questionable is not 

in doubt with recent happenings. A ploy 

which also paved the way for small arms 

and light weapons to be smuggled into 

the country unchecked, with corruption 

as a possible bait to enhancing arms in – 

flow into the country. Complementing 

this observation, Danjibo (2014), was 

quick to point out that the soldiers who 

arrived from operation ground like 

Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali and 

Sudan/Daffur among others may not be 

honest enough to declare their arms 

completely. There are the tendency that 

some might acquire illegal arms 

unknown to their commanders and as 

such in turn bring it into the country 

unchecked and unregistered. Such 

actions have not only contributed in 

increasing the quantities of small arms 

but acted as a failed internal mechanism 

to aid conflict and violence in future as 



 

 

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the soldiers and even their civilian 

friends now possess arms. The Nigerian 

police not different from the rest, with a 

huge task to perform, have not in any 

way proved an average Nigerian wrong 

on the bad image sentiment. If not true, 

one wonders how those with these 

illegal small arms crossed the purported 

check points uncaught. The armed 

forces, police and custom and excise 

department are the eyes of the society 

and major player in checkmating the in-

flow of small arms and light weapons 

into the country. Since it is obvious that 

small arms afflict countries in conflict 

acting as a bait and those in peace acting 

as a trend and are available long after 

conflict has ended (Vendley and Ali, 

2010), something must be done before 

we are turned victims. 

 

The statistics that over 55% of small 

arms and light weapon in Nigeria are 

illegally acquired and are in wrong 

hands remains a fact. Small arms and 

light weapon proliferation as indicated 

in the above discourse have been 

particularly devastating with every geo-

political zone inclusive. Small arms 

have killed and displaced many civilians 

across the country, and to which the 

people of North-East Nigeria are 

currently passing through such ugly 

trend up till today. The major end users 

and possible recipients of these arms 

acting as both trend and a bait in Nigeria 

are the ethnic cum religious militias, 

political thugs, armed robbers, 

kidnappers, terrorist groups, private 

security guards and cult groups among 

others. 

The General Implications 

In view of the direction and context of 

this study, the followings stand out as 

the possible implications: 

i. The issue of small arms and light 

weapon proliferation in Nigeria as 

observed should be tackled with 

carefulness, especially while 

attending to the problems of dispute, 

disagreement and political 

misunderstandings, as any 

miscalculation of such might trigger-

off unassumable confrontation 

leading to conflict since it is 

presumably clear that arms are 

already a bait and trend in the 

country. The already tensed society 

need a capacity building mechanism 

that could be used to sway the mind 

of many into moral consciousness 

and reasoning rather than many 

seeing arms possession as a trend 

that is mandatory for every home to 

acquire. 

ii. Poverty breeds violence. And arms 

as a bait under manipulation and 

brainwashing can induce youths into 

arms conflict. Hence, it is an onus on 

the government to initiate a 

programme that could keep some 

percentage of the population, 

especially the youths busy daily 

instead of looking for or indulging in 

something that fans conflict or 

restiveness. 

iii. The political class who are part of 

these problems should have a change 

of mind, especially in expressing 

sentiments, wanting power at all 

cost, or even openly criticizing 

negatively, as the followers are 



 

 

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always ever ready to hear from them. 

They should see politics and its 

gaming skills as sporting 

engagement instead of seeking for 

power endlessly. As the negating 

likelihood might lead to arms 

struggle, or the same arms being 

turned against the society. 

Therefore, such unhealthy 

competition that might jeopardize 

the stability of the entire nation 

should be avoided. 

iv. The strength of every nation lies in 

its security forces. Hence, the 

nation’s security forces should be 

strengthened, updated, retrained and 

made to be in tune with the best 

practices. The various failures in 

checkmating crime, smuggling-in of 

small arms and light weapons among 

other, trans-border trades are due to 

the negating values of what security 

duty and its goals were all about in a 

nation like this. We don’t rule out the 

issue of bad eggs, corrupt ones, 

disloyal ones, and incompetent ones, 

but the reinforcing of ethics of the 

duty with the necessary provision 

makes a better security agent. For it 

is when such trust and loyalty fails 

that the need to seek for help outside 

arises, as not attending to those 

shortfalls exposes the nation to all 

form of ridicules and fear of any 

threat and unknown. 

 

CONCLUSION AND 

RECOMMENDATION 

Arguably, the degree of small arms and 

light weapon proliferation is not only 

complex and high, but this study has 

come to agree that several arms are 

scattered all over the streets of the 

geopolitical zones, thereby acting as 

both trends and bait to the several 

insurgency being witnessed by the 

country. And that it is only as many – 

individuals as possible, who are desirous 

of peace that can help in putting an end 

to this deadly monster. For like a time-

bomb, waiting to explode, the urgent 

attendance to the factors discussed 

above will in a million help to reduce 

tension. As the evidence of the 

catchment of illicit small arms and light 

weapons available on the street are more 

than what the army, police and security 

agents have in their armouries 

combined, with exception of armoured 

tanks. 

          

Firstly, Nigeria has to avoid the possible 

trend of arms circulation in homesjust as 

it is abhorred by our constitution; we 

need to tackle our problems squarely by 

reducing the rate of arms acting as a bait 

for conflict. Secondly, the government 

should if possible, declare an amnesty in 

each geopolitical zone to mop-up illicit 

small arms in the country with rewards 

attached. Thirdly, the authority with its 

agencies such as NOA, Women Affairs, 

Youth Development, Religious bodies 

and NGOs, should establish a 

Conflict/Violence Education 

Programme to educate every average 

Nigeria on the need to stay away from 

conflict and violent. The negative 

imports and consequences, which 

outweighs the intent, are very disastrous. 

Fourthly, since it is evident that security 

lapses and loophole have considerably 



 

 

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contributed to the in-flow of illicit small 

arms and light weapons into the country, 

the government should task the agencies 

to strengthen their services to checkmate 

this awful security breaches. Fifth, there 

should also be an opening up of the 

economy by the government to partner 

with the private sectors on the area 

concerned with initiatives for creating 

jobs, so as to reduce the level of 

unemployment and poverty.  Evidence, 

has showed that job lost, idleness and 

unemployment are veritable tools to 

small arms and violent induced crimes. 

 

Nigeria, being a signatory to several of 

the regional, Africa and international 

instruments or conventions on illegal 

arms procurement, proliferations and 

promotion of violence, need to 

harmonize her laws with, especially the 

ECOWAS Convention on small arms 

and light weapons proliferations. In that 

light, Nigeria must endeavor to sustain 

the full implementation of the UN 

programme of action on the prevention, 

combat and eradication of illicit trades in 

SALW in all of its aspects. The ATT 

universal legal instrument for regulating 

arms manufacturing, exportation, 

importation, transfer and booking, to 

which she is a signatory to must be 

adhered to strictly. With such an action, 

the tendency and possibility that the 

issues of arms proliferation, the rising 

wave of insurgency and prospecting 

violence with these arms acting as both 

a bait and trend would be curtailed to the 

barest minimum. 

 

 

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