53 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji ARMS PROLIFERATION AND THE RISE OF INSURGENCY IN NIGERIA: A TREND OR A BAIT? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC. PhD Department of Political Science Federal University Ndufu Alike Ikwo (FUNAI), Abakaliki –Ebonyi State, Nigeria groupsonpaul@yahoo.com Ayodeji O. Adedeji Department of Political Science Federal University Ndufu Alike Ikwo (FUNAI) Abakaliki –Ebonyi State, Nigeria adeayo2000s@yahoo.com Abstract Nigeria, with the worst porous border in the Sub-Saharan Africa, for long, is a victim of nefarious crimes of small arms and light weapons trans-border trades leading to arms proliferation. These arms proliferation, encouraged by failed internal mechanisms, had become a great threat since the inception of democratic dispensation. To the extent that, the activities of the several militia groups and over ambitious politicians had affected security measures. The number of small arms and light weapons on the individual and group hands, outnumbered the arms in the armed forces and police armouries combined, armoured tanks excluded. The study, aware that in the midst of crisis, foreign friends and foes alike, concealed their real intentions, to pursue their national and selfish interests. A trend that encourages arms conflicts and its escalations. This study, situated on the game theory framework, utilizes secondary data and analytical approach. The study notes that there are small arms and light weapons proliferation in Nigeria through disgruntled groups. The study finds that porous border crimes might have aided in-flow of arms. The study observed that poverty and unemployment played a role. The study suggests that arms mop-up and conflict education be initiated. Key Words: Conflicts, Small Arms, Light Weapons, Porous Border, Militia Group, and Arms Proliferation. Introduction The issue of small arms and light weapons proliferations upsurge, especially, at the end of cold war and the end of 20th century into the new millennium, has made the World to witness more terrible and devastating arms struggles and wars as it supposedly ought to have occurred in the period preceding the 21st century. mailto:groupsonpaul@yahoo.com mailto:adeayo2000s@yahoo.com 54 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com Between the end of cold war and now, conflicts and wars in the world and Africa in particular, have been fought primarily within states by rebels, extremists and national armies, with the victims being predominantly civilians and vulnerable groups in the society owing to the high incidence of small arms and light weapon proliferations. The value placed on illicit small arms over human lives was more than ever priced. Thus, the degrees of destruction and carnage as noted in Iraq, Bosnia Herzegovina, Liberia, Somalia, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Yemen, Burundi, Serbia, Georgia, Tbilisi, Congo DR, Afghanistan, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Libya, Syria and Israel – Palestine amongst others were more catastrophic than ever. It is a situation characterized by mass killings and ethnic cleansing, which the actors regarded as the inevitable consequences of war, rebellion and conflicts (Rupensinghe, 1998). This notion, thereby, prompting Baffour (2014), to argue that the current events in many parts of the world seem to suggest that the global efforts to fighting against the proliferations of small arms and light weapons require enhancement. Much so, it is obvious that the world is still awash with small arms and light weapons exacerbating the already debilitating catastrophic human suffering, especially its impact on women and children and the geographically spreading that is more devastating in the southern hemisphere. The illicit circulation of small arms, light weapons and their ammunitions destabilizes communities, impacts security and development among others in all regions of the world. Nigeria with the highest and worst porous border in the sub-Saharan Africa has for long been a victim of illicit small arms and light weapons proliferations. A context that could not only be placed squarely on its unhealthy internal mechanism, nor at the door steps of it is Oliver Twist neighbours who pop-in and out of the country with lip-services, but could be underpinned on the parlance of being a rich man in the midst of many poor people, whose own system it careless about and, whose neighbours’ intents and plight it neglects, thereby making itself a victim owing to bad leaderships. In support of this contention, Danjibo (2014 and 2013) observed that with the emerging, daunting, security challenges beleaguering the Nigeria state, there is no doubting the fact that Nigeria has today become a theatre of the utility of small arms and light weapons. A fact, Ikelegbe (2014), also posits that Nigeria has been particularly plagued with violent conflicts in the last two decades. Several of these conflicts have been conducted by militias (insurgency rise in the Niger Delta, Boko Haram in the North East and Ombass in the North Central), cult groups, Islamic fundamentalist, armed youth, thugs, criminal groups and area boys. In the circumstances, insecurity has been a huge concern to the citizens. And of course, thus, given rise to which 55 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji democratic rules has been associated with rising lawlessness, violent criminality, insecurity, violent political and widespread small arms and light weapons proliferations. Premised on the foregoing, this study examine whether illicit arms is a bait or trend to the rising rate of terrorism/insurgency in the country or phrasal conflict term, the theoretical argument, stating the obvious, evaluates the schemes and skills adopted by the actors. The factors that led to small arms and light weapon proliferations in Nigeria discussed; and, then, the need for thorough scrutinization of every Greek gift “of helping” as such may go with implications and or manipulations to demisfy the society to be more cancerous than cancer. Illicit Arms: A Bate or Trend for Insurgency Rise in Nigeria The very reason that the arms were officially unregistered, unlicensed, unrecognized and or illegally stolen or acquired makes these (small arms) weapons an illicit item…and or as noted in ECOWAS Convention (1998) CAP 1 Art.1: sect. 5, which states inter alia, ‘that small arms covers all that is carried out in violations of the convention’. Evidently also small arms come into a country through or by chance of smuggling by irresponsible persons who might have the intent of destabilizing or checkmating the established institutions and agencies in whatever form or projections. Thus, agreeing with Aning (1999:76), who argued that it is evident that a catchy of SALW, which is bait for conflict encourages the occurrence of internal insurrection that might have been supported by external actors and rebel within the society. Although, Pokoo (2014), not disputing the above contentions went further to infer that small arms have its own socio-cultural value in West African communities – like, as used in hunting, festivals and other social events, for protecting farms and properties among others. Then, on how this ill has become a bait to conflict as enunciated above, he was quick to point out that it has not only become a bait, but also the heart of violent destructions around the world, threatening human security and fundamental human rights, that West Africa was never an exception. Accepting these assertions as a fact, Orji (2014), added that the widespread availability of SALW has exacerbated and prolonged conflicts, raising new ones for recognitions, and also contributed to violence destruction that has impeded the processes of development in Africa. To confirm these views, Ki-Moon (2012) noted that “the World is over armed and peace is underfunded”, which in tandem with Annan (2012), who also noted that the havoc in term of the change they cause, small arms, indeed, could well be described as weapons of mass destruction. Meaning that, as at today, small arms proliferations has also assumed a trend among individuals, groups, homes and the general society to possessing it. It suffices then to say that there is no home in Nigeria today that 56 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com does not have one form of arms or the other. Even recently at Shomolu area of Lagos, some policemen, crime fighters, were quick to resist going to track down some car snatchers up Northern part of the country, claiming that with the national election at the corner that arms are in many homes less loosing lives in case of any attack. Since this item is found in several homes due to its handiness or otherwise, and in line with general definition, small arms, otherwise termed illicit items, that are traded on by men on illicit trades, according to UN (1995) and ECOWAS Convention (1998) among others includes: light machine guns, assault rifles, revolvers, self-loading pistols, grenade launchers, sub-machine guns, exploding bomb, an incendiary bomb or gas bomb, rocket launcher, a missile, a missile system and landmine; carbines and light machine guns. The light weapons, on the other hand are: heavy machine guns; portable grenade launchers, mobile or mounted; portable anti-aircraft cannons; portable anti-tank cannons, non-recoil guns; portable anti- tank missile launchers or rocket launcher; portable anti-aircraft missile launcher; mortars with a caliber of less than 100mm among others. These weapons are responsible for the majority of battle related conflicts and deaths. In explaining how devastating and worrisome the effects are to the World, Africa and Nigeria in particular, the Religion for Peace World Assembly (1984) observed that an estimated 60 – 90% of all direct conflict victims are killed with firearms, simply because small arms and light weapons are conflict fuel, instability driven and poverty manipulated. These weapons of war, mostly used against the innocent and the helpless by many politicians, war mongers, power manipulators, self- acclaimed Islamic extremist/ fundamentalist terror groups and senseless security agents sees it as readily made instruments to perpetually subdue and subjugate the general society. A scenario where the events of the late 80s into the 90s greatly influenced creating unhealthy political system in many part of the world most of especially crises-riddled African society. Following the end of cold war, the two major factors that have mitigated and drives conflict are political powers – leadership tussles and the economic might of who controls the spoils of the states. The actors in this context are the major sponsors of small arms and light weapon proliferation. The actors in turn manipulates their followers, allies and surrogates who form the bulk of the tools for either importing, spreading and/or smuggling of the small arms and light weapons to achieving their goals. It is also this group that sees arms possession and arms usage as bait for conflict by brainwashing, manipulating, inciting and arming the end users. On the other hand, the second group sees arms possession as a trend and something that many homes must acquire. Thereby, agreeing with United Nations (1995), 57 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji that these small arms and light weapons are used to destabilizing regions, igniting crisis, fuel conflicts, and prolong conflicts/war, obstruct, confiscates relief goods and progress, undermine peace initiatives, exacerbates human rights violations and abuses, hamper development and foster culture of violence. These group, the end users and possible at times, the victims, being the political touts and thugs (Onuoha, 2012), otherwise vent their anger on the innocent civilians of the society; as they fall within the class of impoverished, unemployed and miscreants of the society, whose existence have been destroyed, messed-up, meaningless and cheated upon by the state. A situation, Dube (2014), classified as a people, a country at war with itself, all illegal guns were once legal before being diverted, to the tussle of the haves and the have nots. These were the type of scenarios seen at Liberia, Sierra Leone, Angola, Congo DR, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Burundi, Rwanda, Sudan and Libya wars among others, whose atrocities ranges from maiming, amputating, killings, raping and infecting of the surviving victims with HIV/AIDS among others. The high degree of illicit small arms and light weapons proliferations being a bait of conflict as posit by Vendley and Ali (2010), states inter alia, that proliferation and misuse of small arms is a worldwide progressive complex and multifaceted phenomena that affects people of all… By virtue of their easy availability, low cost and manageability, small arms and light weapons (SALW) have become the weapon of choice in most conflicts in the world today and have helped raise levels of armed violence even in areas at peace… A trend that suddenly arose and a bait that had caused several havoc and damages…where more than 1000 lives are lost each day to small arms violence. These assertions, however, stands to sum up the fact that illicit small arms and light weapons are bait to conflicts in the world and Africa in particular, with the new growing emphasis of also being a trend among many Nigerians today. This, with a far-reaching and long lasting impact that extends well past their immediate use in conflicts is the new haven for insurgence in the land. In submission, however, Berman (2014) noted that small arms have been used extensively to sponsor armed violence in West African States, particularly in Nigeria where insurgency has at several occasion chased out the federal troops at different times, thereby weakening governments’ ability to function, threatening civil aviation, grossly distorting the minds of the youths and practically leading to detrimental long - term societal changes. Theoretical Arguments This study, in reference to the situations mentioned above, is poised to adopt an eclectic approach to its theoretical analysis with the combination of Game Theory framework, Frustrating- Aggression Theory to interrogate this study: 58 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com A: Frustration-Aggression analysis became a popularly known intellectual savvy as a theoretical canon within the realm of political studies with the writings of Ted Gurr (1970) in his book ‘Why Men Rebel? Even though plethora of scholars through their works have earlier before Gurr (1970), contributed immensely to the domain of conflict studies with the use of frustration-aggression theory: Maier (1949), Berkowitz (1965), Coser (1966), Cantril (1967), Bank (1996) among others. As a theory, frustration- aggression analysis is premised on the fact that there is a nexus between aggression and frustration. The theory assumes that those who are frustrated in life might likely be aggressive and that there is a tendency that frustration due to inability to achieve some basic things in life might lead to aggression. Gurr and Rutenberg (1967), opined that an intense frustration in the society provides a veritable platform to motivate men to either intense, short-term attack or to move prolonged, less severe attacks on the initiators of the pains; that severity of deprivation affects both intensity of violence, causing human and physical damages. In other words, Berkowitz (1965), mild deprivation motivates few violence, moderate deprivation push more across the threshold and very intense deprivation encourages large segments of political community actions. This, according to Cantril (1967) and Maier (1949), destructive behaviour, which is a fundamental property of the human organization of men and exposed to noxious stimuli that cannot be avoided or overcome, hence, having the innate disposition, to strike out at their sources. It is in this respect that the study finds theory relevant to interrogate the issues that revolve around arms proliferation and the rising wave of insurgency in Nigeria. This study argues that insurgency in Nigeria became prolonged due to social neglect, poverty, mass unemployment, and social inequality owing to the multiplier effects that such frustration can cause in the society. It is argued in the study that frustration to achieve basic minimum living standard daily is a precursor to aggression/ violent conflicts vis-à-vis the unmitigated insurgency deadly activities that are rising every now and then in Nigeria. However, this theory has been criticized for its gender discrimination. The theory often fails to identify the gaps in various gender studies. It does not prove why men are likely more to be aggressive than the women and it is not always true to say that men often fight than women. This is difficult to prove due to insufficient reason. Besides, it is not always through to say most frustrating situations are prone to aggression or to say most conflicting situations are inwardly motivated by one form of aggression or the other. Or can we still link frustration-aggression syndrome to Fulani Herders versus farmers’ violent killings throughout the country? Or is there no boiling point at which human aggression in the society can be saturated? The dichotomy between frustration leads to aggression 59 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji varies from different individuals’ perception to another. However, some of these weaknesses are captured with the use of game theory framework of analysis. Game Theory framework, without neglecting the interplay of national or self-interest model. The choice of game theory however, overwhelmed all other related theories and also covers some of the inherent weaknesses associated with frustrated-aggression theory. Game Theory involves combined manipulation, scheming and propaganda to achieve desired objectives. Thus, scholars like Plano and Riggs (1953) opined that it is a body of thought dealing with rational decision strategies in situations of conflict and competition, of which each participant or player tends to maximize gains and minimize losses. In tandem with the above assertion, Mager (1972) argued that it is a form of arithmetic mode of interactions of actors striving to maximize their utilities. To Newman and Magestern (1957), it is used to define the economic man as a rational actor who believes in gain rather than losses. Agreeing with this contention, Stranger (1960) posits that game theory is a domineering concept with the intent of greed and logical reasoning of manipulating others against their desires, against the society and against the entire system. In the same continuum, Levy and Thompson (2010), argued that game theory is the act of rationally advancing security, power and wealth in any societal contest. Therefore, if game theory involves the manipulation of numbers, persons and materials to achieving set goals, whose rules are defined vis-à-vis the distribution of resources and the strategic possibilities that are open to each player in the employment of these resources, then, the questions this study raises are: what are the possibilities that the flooding of the country with illicit small arms and light weapons are not politically motivated since substantial evidence implicates the political class as seen at every electioneering period? Why are illicit arms a bait to conflict in the society with insurgency rearing ugly heads in almost every part of Nigeria? What do the actors who encourage the in-flow of small arms and light weapon into the country tends to achieve? Why are possessions of small arms in the country now a trend seen among every home? What are the possible implications of this illegality to the general society? Is it possible that these sponsors and their agents intend to undermine the territorial integrity of the country by any means? Should we also agree that corruption helped to make it difficult to control the in-flow of small arms and light weapons during peace time operation? What are Nigeria’s strategies for national cooperation and integration towards security, good governance and human rights? Do the importers of these small arms and light weapons intend to destroy what they hope inheriting and administering at the same time? How can these quantities of small arms and light weapons be possibly mopped up from the street of 60 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com Nigeria? These are some of the vital questions addressed in this study. Taking into cognizance that apart from the political class and the government, whether ruling or in opposition utilizes the concept of manipulation, scheming and propaganda to suffocate the governed into perpetual fear, to which small arms and light weapons proliferation has not only become a bait to several conflicts and crisis but had also assumed a trend in the present context, especially, the period preceding electioneering contest. A period, the actors also indulge in employing and deploying all arsenals with strategic game plan on how to gain political power at all cost. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM FIELD WORK With the aid of statistical inferences, this study empirically analyses data collected from fieldwork. It also put in vogue the core theoretical analyses to determine whether arms proliferations triggered off the rising-wave of insurgency and ethnic militancy in Nigeria is a question of a trend or a bait. In order to logically elucidate the research, stand point, the study also relied on the following hypotheses to analyze the subject-matter within the ambit of an empirical scientific testing: A. Research Hypotheses 1. That political power struggle during electioneering process or quest for power in Nigeria enhances arms proliferations vis-à- vis insurgency in Nigeria; 2. That social inequality, poverty, unemployment and other forms of social neglect induce illegal arms possession In the light of this, the raised hypotheses are subjected to inferential statistical analysis, using Chi-Square method of data analysis. The raw data are generated through questionnaires administered across the six-geopolitical zones in Nigeria. These questionnaires are openly-structured and the respondents include both males and females on a geo-political basis in Nigeria having purposively been selected. The variable, such as Arms struggled and Non-Arms struggled; proliferation and Non-Arms proliferation; Trans- border Crime and Legitimate Trade were used to determine whether there is a significant different/relationship between observed frequencies and expected frequencies with a view to rejecting or retaining the null hypothesis (H0). In social statistical analysis, the level of significance of one-tailed test for Chi- square analysis is 0.05% or 5% and Critical Table Value (CV) for Chi- square when the degree of freedom(df) for X2 test of independence is df = (r- 1)(c-1) where r = number of row and C= number of columns. In this study, we have two rows and columns apiece. Hence, the df at 1 from the Critical table value is 3,841. And in a bid to further illuminate our understanding of the subject-matter for this study, we 61 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji categorized each of the six-geopolitical zones into different indices/variables based on flow of arms, civil unrest and the unceasing rising-wave of violent conflicts emanating from each zone in Nigeria. B. ADMINISTRATION OF QUESTIONNAIRE This study uses North-West and` South- South categorization of Arms struggled and Non-Arms struggle; North-East or South-East categorization of Arms Proliferations and Non-Arms Proliferations; North-Central or South- West categorization of Trans-border Crime and Legitimate Trade, a total number of one thousand questionnaires (1000) were administered within the purposively sample selected two states across each of the six-geopolitical zones. Hence, the statistical tables below show the data analysis of the various responses from male and female respondents DATA ANALYSIS: This paper uses Chi-square (X2) method of inferential statistics to analysis the various responses from different respondent purposively selected based on the Six-geopolitical zones of Nigeria from North-West, North-East, North- Central, South-South, South-East and South-West regions in Nigeria. NORTH-WEST ZONE: Test of significance of the Null Hypotheses (H0) This study presents its two hypotheses above from the descriptively and interpretively analyzed So that the null hypothesis could be subjected to more inferential statistical analyses. Hence, the two hypotheses raised were tested for significance at P< 0.05which was analyzed and interpreted effectively. In the North-West zone of Nigeria, Arms and Non-Arms struggled dichotomy were used to interrogate the two null hypotheses. H01: there is no significant relationship between Arms Smuggled and Non-Arms Smuggled as to whether due to its (Rising wave of Insurgency) pervasiveness that political power struggle during electioneering process in Nigeria will not enhance arms hostilities within the two states of Sokoto and Niger from the North-West zone. Evidence from the sample survey conducted as it is shown below in this study reveals that, the first null hypothesis is rejected whereX2 > CV, 11.1 > 3.841 at P <0.05. This means there is a perfect agreement between our first hypotheses and the indices/variables that we used to measure or determine whether political power struggled in the North-West Nigeria has a nexus with arms and non- arms smuggled in the zone. H02: That there is no significance relationship between Arms/Non- smuggled and poverty, inequality, and other forms of social neglects as to whether due to the (Rising wave of Insurgency) multiplier effects in the society cannot be blamed or linked to the incessant and unwarranted violent 62 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com conflicts in the zone. This hypothesis was tested for significance using Chi- square test and below table shows the synopsis of the analysis in which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2= 11.1 Interpretation for H01 and HO2: Since X2 > CV, 11.1 > 3.841, therefore H01/Null hypothesis as formulated above in this study is rejected at P<0.05. This shows there is a perfect agreement between our earlier hypotheses (H01 and H02) which deny the existence of no relationship between the two variables. Since the two Null hypotheses have been rejected by our test, it further reveals that the quest for political power struggle during electioneering process among Politicians from the North West zone is a consequence of rising wave of insurgency vis-à-vis arms hostilities in the. Hence, there is a nexus between poverty, inequality with other forms of social neglects Arms/Non arms smuggled which can be attributed to the unceasing/rising nature insurgency in the zone. Our analysis from North-West zone in Nigeria shows that the two null hypotheses using arms and non-arms smuggled dichotomy were rejected at P< 0.05 level of significance and chi-square table below gives a reliable credence to the above test: Table 1: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in North West (Sokoto and Niger States) Frequency Observed (FO) SEX Arms Smuggled Non-Arms Smuggled Total Column MALE 26 24 50 FEMALE 10 40 50 Total Row 36 64 100 Overall total X2 = (𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2 𝐹𝐸 as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, FE= Frequency Expected. Expected Frequency 63 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji To calculate (FE), we use 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊 𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐 𝑭𝑬 26 10 24 40 18 18 32 32 8 -8 -8 8 64 64 64 64 3. 5556 3.5556 2.0 2.0 X2= 11.1 Null hypotheses is rejected by the test since X2= 11.1> 3.841 (Critical value) where it denies the existence of relationship between arms smuggled and non-arms smuggled and the rising wave of insurgency in Nigeria having subjected our null hypothesis to analysis with the use of two indices/variables. A. NORTH-EAST ZONE: Test of significance of the Null Hypotheses (H01) This study utilizes the first null hypotheses above from the descriptively and interpretively analyzed so that the null hypothesis could be subjected to more inferential statistical analyses. Hence, the first hypotheses raised were tested for significance at P< 0.05 which was analyzed and interpreted effectively. In the North-East zone of Nigeria where respondents were sampled from Borno and Adamawa states, the two indices/variables of (Arms-proliferation and Non-arms proliferation dichotomy) used for our analysis in this zone are different from the North-west due to the high rate of Boko Haram insurgency in the North- east. These two indices/variables are only used to explain our H01/ first null hypotheses. H01: That there is no significance relationship between Arms- proliferations/Non-arms proliferation and power struggle during electioneering process due to its (Rising wave of Insurgency) multiplier effects in the society can be blamed or linked to the incessant and unwarranted killings and violent conflicts amidst loss of lives and properties in the zone. This hypothesis was tested for significance using Chi-square test and below table shows the synopsis of the analysis in which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2= 4.39 H02: That there is no significance relationship/difference between Arms- proliferations/Non-arms proliferation and Social inequality, poverty, unemployment and other forms of social neglect as to whether due to (Rising wave of Insurgency) unmitigated killings and loss of lives and properties 64 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com and these can induce illegal arms possession in the North-East zone using Borno and Adamawa states as sampled subjects for this study. The calculated value of X2 is less than critical table value (CV), 4.39 is greater than 3.841. This null hypothesis is rejected at P < 0.05 because calculated value of X2 is greater than critical value from the table and hence H01 is rejected. Interpretation for HO1 and H02: Since X2 is greater than CV, 4.39 is greater than 3.841, therefore H01/Null hypothesis as formulated above in this study H0 is rejected at P<0.05. This shows there is a perfect agreement between our earlier hypotheses (H0) and the variables (arms/ non-arms proliferation) which shows that there is a relationship between the null hypotheses and two variables/indices used to measure the rising wave of insurgency in Nigeria. Since the Null hypotheses has been rejected by d test, it further reveals the nexus between political power struggle during electioneering process among Politicians from the North East zone as well as issues of poverty, social inequality amidst unemployment do have a direct consequence for the rising wave of insurgency vis-à-vis arms hostilities in the Zone. Hence, there is a direct link between arms/non-arms proliferation and political power struggle in the North East zone. Our analysis from North-East zone in Nigeria shows that the first null hypotheses using arms proliferation/non-arms proliferation dichotomy were rejected using 0.05 level of significance and chi-square table below gives a reliable credence to our analysis above: Table 2: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in North-East (Borno and Adamawa States) Frequency Observed (FO) SEX Arms Proliferation Non-Arms Proliferation Total Column MALE 35 14 49 FEMALE 26 25 51 Total Row 61 39 100 Overall total X2 = (𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2 𝐹𝐸 as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, FE= Frequency Expected. Expected Frequency 65 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji To calculate (FE), we use 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊 𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐 𝑭𝑬 35 14 26 25 29.89 19.11 31.11 19.89 5.11 -5.11 -5.11 5.11 26.1121 26.1121 26.1121 26.1121 0.8736 1.3664 0.8393 1.3128 X2= 4.39 Since the calculated value of X2 is greater than CV, 4.39 is greater than 3.841, Null hypothesis is rejected and this shows there is existence of perfect relationship between arms/non-arms proliferation and the rising wave of insurgency in Nigeria having tested the null hypotheses earlier with the two variables/indices used. B. NORTH-CENTRAL ZONE: Test of significance of the Null Hypotheses (H0) In this zone, this study utilized cumulative responses of the sampled respondents with the use of indices/variables such as Trans-border Crime and Legitimate Trade in Kwara and Benue States where the two hypotheses were analyzed descriptively and interpretively. Hence, the null hypotheses are subjected to a more inferential statistical analysis and these hypotheses were tested for significance at P< 0.05 which was analyzed and interpreted effectively. In the North- Central zone of Nigeria, Trans-border Crime and Legitimate dichotomy were used to interrogate the two null hypotheses. H01: there is no significant relationship between Trans-border Crime and Legitimate Trade as to whether due to its (Rising wave of Insurgency) pervasiveness that political power struggle during electioneering process in Nigeria will not enhance arms hostilities within the North-Central zone. As shown below in this study, the first null hypothesis is rejected where X2 greater than CV, 4.81 greater than 3.841 at P <0.05. Hence, our test rejects the null hypothesis of this study and accept the existence of relationship between the subject-matter and the two indices/variables which was used to do the analysis. H02: That there is no significance relationship between Trans-border Crime/ Legitimate Trade and Political power struggle as well as poverty, social inequality as to whether due to its (Rising wave of Insurgency) multiplier effects in the society can be blamed or linked to the incessant and unwarranted 66 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com violent conflicts in the zone. This hypothesis was tested for significance using Chi-square test and below table shows the synopsis of the analysis in which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2= 4.81 Interpretation for H01 and HO2: Since X2 is greater than CV, 4.81 less than 3.841, therefore H01/Null hypothesis as formulated above in this study is accepted at P<0.05. This shows there is a perfect agreement between our earlier hypotheses (H01 and H02) which accept the existence of no relationship between the two variables. Since the two Null hypotheses have been rejected by d test, it further reveals that the quest for political power struggle during electioneering process and issues of poverty, inequality and other social neglect has a direct consequence of trans-border crime and legitimate trade in the North-Central. Hence, there is a nexus or direct link between political power struggles; poverty, inequality with other forms of social neglects and Trans-border Crime/Legitimate trade in the North-Central zone which can be attributed to the unceasing/rising nature insurgency in the zone. Our analysis from North-Central zone in Nigeria shows that the two null hypotheses using Trans-border Crime/Legitimate Trade dichotomy were rejected using 0.05 level of significance and chi-square table below gives a reliable credence to the test: Table 3: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in North-central (Kwara and Benue states) Frequency Observed (FO) SEX Trans-border Crime Legitimate Border Trade Total Column MALE 32 19 51 FEMALE 20 29 49 Total Row 52 48 100 Overall total X2 = (𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2 𝐹𝐸 as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, FE= Frequency Expected. 67 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji Frequency Expected (FE) To calculate (FE), we use 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊 𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐 𝑭𝑬 32 20 19 29 26.52 25.48 24.48 23.52 5.48 -5.48 -5.48 5.48 30.0304 30.0304 30.0304 30.0304 1.1324 1.1786 1.2267 1.2768 X2= 4.81 Since calculated value of X2 is greater than CV, 4.81 > 3.841, therefore H0/Null hypothesis is rejected because it denies the existence of relationship between trans-border crime/legitimate trade and the rising wave of insurgency/ communal violence in Nigeria having rejected the initial hypotheses formulated for the study. C. SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE: Test of significance of the Null Hypotheses (H0) From this zone where ethnic militia activities are very rampant, this study uses arms and non-arms smuggled dichotomy to analyze its two hypotheses above descriptively and interpretively. Hence, the null hypotheses are subjected to more inferential statistical analyses. Hence, the hypotheses raised were tested for significance at P< 0.05 which was analyzed and interpreted effectively. In the south-south zone of Nigeria, Arms and Non-Arms struggled dichotomy were used to interrogate the two null hypotheses. The two sampled states are River state and Cross river states in the Niger-Delta zone. H01: There is no significant relationship between Arms Smuggled and Non-Arms Smuggled as to whether due to its (Rising wave of Insurgency) pervasiveness that political power struggle during electioneering process in Nigeria will not enhance arms hostilities within the North-West zone. As shown below in this study, the first null hypothesis is rejected where X2 > CV, 4.0 > 3.841 at P <0.05 H02: There is no significance relationship between Arms/Non- smuggled and poverty, inequality as to whether due to its (Rising wave of Insurgency) multiplier effects in the society can be blamed or linked to the incessant and unwarranted violent conflicts in the zone. This hypothesis was tested for significance using Chi- square test and below table shows the synopsis of the analysis in which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) 68 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2= 4.0 Interpretation for H01 and HO2: X2 = 4.0 since X2 is greater than CV, 4.0 > 3.841, therefore H0/Null hypothesis is rejected therefore the two/Null hypothesis as formulated above in this study are rejected at P<0.05. This shows there is a perfect agreement between our earlier hypotheses (H01 and H02) which attests to the existence of relationship between the two variables. Since the two Null hypotheses have been rejected by d test, it further reveals that the quest for political power struggle during electioneering process among Politicians from the South-south zone is a consequence of rising wave of insurgency vis-à-vis arms hostilities in the. Hence, there is a nexus between poverty, inequality with other forms of social neglects Arms/Non arms smuggled which can be attributed to the unceasing/rising nature insurgency in the zone. Our analysis from south-south zone in Nigeria shows that the two null hypotheses using arms and non-arms smuggled dichotomy were rejected at 0.05 level of significance and chi-square table below gives a reliable credence to our analysis: Table 4: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in South-South zone (River state and Cross River State) SEX Arms Smuggled Non-Arms Smuggled Total Column MALE 30 20 50 FEMALE 20 30 50 Total Row 50 50 100 Overall total X2 = (𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2 𝐹𝐸 as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, FE= Frequency Expected. Expected Frequency To calculate (FE), we use 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊 𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 69 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐 𝑭𝑬 30 20 20 30 25 25 25 25 5 -5 -5 5 25 25 25 25 1 1 1 1 X2= 4.0 Since since calculated value of X2 is greater than CV, 4.0 is greater than 3.841, therefore H0/Null hypothesis is rejected and this shows there is relationship between arms/non-arms smuggle and insurgency in Nigeria having tested the null hypotheses with the use of two indices/variables in this study. D. SOUTH-EAST ZONE: Test of significance of the Null Hypotheses (H0) In this zone, this study uses arms proliferation and non-arms proliferation dichotomy from Abia state and Anambra (Aguleri and Umuleri areas) to analyze its two hypotheses above descriptively and interpretively. Hence, the null hypotheses are subjected to more inferential statistical analyses. Hence, the hypotheses raised were tested for significance at P< 0.05 which was analyzed and interpreted effectively. In the south-east zone of Nigeria, Arms and Non-Arms struggled dichotomy were used to interrogate the two null hypotheses. H01: There is no significant relationship between Arms proliferation/Non-Arms Smuggled and political power struggle in this area to determine as to whether due to its (incessant inter-communal violence) pervasiveness that political power struggle during electioneering process in Nigeria will enhance arms hostilities within the North-West zone. As shown below in this study, the first null hypothesis is rejected where X2 is less than CV, 0.37 less than 3.841 at P <0.05 H02: There is no significance relationship between Arms proliferation/Non-proliferation and poverty, social inequality, unemployment in this area as to whether due to its (boundary disputes over lands) multiplier effects in the society can be blamed or linked to the incessant and unwarranted violent conflicts in the zone. This hypothesis was tested for significance using Chi-square test and below table shows the synopsis of the analysis in which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2= 4.0 70 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com E. Interpretation for H01 and HO2: X2 = 0.37 since X2 is greater than CV, 0.37 is greater than 3.841, therefore H0/Null hypothesis is accepted, therefore the two/Null hypothesis as formulated above in this study are rejected at P<0.05. This shows there is a disagreement between our earlier hypotheses (H01 and H02) which accept the existence of no relationship between the two variables. Since the two Null hypotheses have been accepted by d test, it further reveals that the quest for political power struggle during electioneering process among Politicians from the South-east zone has no nexus direct consequence to incessant inter-communal violence and arms hostilities in the south-east. Also, our text above accepted the existence of no relationship between poverty, inequality with other forms of social neglects Arms proliferation/Non arms proliferation in this zone. Our analysis from south-east zone in Nigeria shows that the two null hypotheses using arms proliferation and non-arms proliferation dichotomy were rejected at 0.05 level of significance and chi-square table below gives a reliable credence to our analysis: Table 5: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in South-South zone (Abia and Anambra States) Frequency Observed (FO) SEX Arms Proliferation Non-Arms Proliferation Total Column MALE 34 18 52 FEMALE 20 28 48 Total Row 54 46 100 Overall total X2 = (𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2 𝐹𝐸 as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, FE= Frequency Expected. Expected Frequency To calculate (FE), we use 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊 𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐 𝑭𝑬 34 20 18 28 28.08 25.92 23.92 22.08 5.92 -5.92 1.5 -1.5 35.0464 35.0464 35.0464 35.0464 1.2481 1.3521 1.4652 1.5872 X2= 5.65 71 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji X2 = 5.65 Since calculated value of X2 less than CV, 0.37 < 3.841, therefore H0/Null hypothesis is rejected which shows there is a nexus between the two indices/variables used to analyse the study and arms proliferation/non-arms proliferation in Nigeria using South- south zone as a sampled survey for this study. E: SOUTH-WEST ZONE (A): Test of significance of the Null Hypotheses (H0) Using sampled respondents from Idiroko in Ogun state via Benin Republic route, this study utilized Trans- border and Legitimate Trade dichotomy to explain its two hypotheses above from the descriptive and interpretive point of view and also subjected the null hypothesis to more inferential statistical analyses. Hence, the two hypotheses raised were tested for significance at P< 0.05 In Ogun state/Idiroko/ Seme border via Benin Rep as part of the South-West zone of Nigeria, Trans-border trade and legitimate trade dichotomy were used to analyze the two null hypotheses. H01: There is no significant relationship between Trans-border crime/Legitimate Trade as to determine whether due to its (arms proliferation across Nigerian borders) frequent border conflicts that is usually occasioned by political power struggle during electioneering process in Nigeria will enhance arms hostilities within the Nigerian border at Idiroko in Ogun state via Benin Republic route from the South-West zone. Evidence from the sample survey conducted as it is shown below in this study reveals that, the first null hypothesis is rejected where calculated value of X2 is greater than Critical table value (CV), 4.92 > 3.841 at P <0.05. This shows that there is a perfect agreement between our first hypotheses and the indices/variables that we used to measure or determine whether political power struggled in the South-west Nigeria has a nexus with arms and non-arms smuggled in the zone. It can be explained further since our test has rejected the initial null hypothesis that trans-border crime and legitimate trade have a high implication as to the cause of arms hostilities that have been ravaging Nigeria for several years most especially during the electioneering campaign process in Nigeria. H02: That there is no significance relationship between Trans-border crime/ Legitimate trade in the Ogun state/Idiroko via Seme border/ Benin Rep route in the south-west and poverty, inequality, and other forms of social neglects as to whether due to the (Rising wave of border conflicts/Insurgency) multiplier effects in the society that can be blamed or linked to the incessant and unwarranted violent conflicts in the zone. This hypothesis was tested for significance using Chi-square test and below table shows the synopsis of the analysis in which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2= 4.92 and our test here 72 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com rejected the null hypothesis that is earlier formulated which deny the existence of relationship between the indices/variables used and the null hypothesis. This is an indication that trans-border conflicts occasioned by political power struggled and unemployment/poverty has a direct link to the rising wave of insurgency and other ethnic militancy struggle in Nigeria. Interpretation for H01 and HO2: Since our calculated value of X2 is greater than CV, 4.92 > 3.841, therefore H01/Null hypothesis as formulated above in this study is rejected at P<0.05. This shows there is a perfect agreement between our earlier hypotheses (H01 and H02) which deny the existence of no relationship between the two variables. Since the two Null hypotheses have been rejected by d test, it further reveals that the quest for political power struggle during electioneering process among Politicians from the South-West zone is a consequence of rising wave of insurgency vis-à-vis arms hostilities in the. Hence, there is a nexus between poverty, inequality with other forms of social neglects where trans-border crime and legitimate trade can be attributed to the unceasing/rising nature insurgency in the zone. Our analysis from South- West zone in Nigeria shows that the two null hypotheses using arms and non- arms smuggled dichotomy were rejected at P< 0.05 level of significance and chi- square table below gives a reliable credence to the above analysis: Table 6: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in South-west zone (Ogun state/Idiroko and Seme Border via Benin Rep) Frequency Observed (FO) SEX Trans-border Crime Legitimate Border Trade Total Column MALE 24 25 49 FEMALE 14 37 51 Total Row 38 62 100 Overall total X2 = (𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2 𝐹𝐸 as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, Frequency Expected (FE) To calculate (FE), we use 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊 𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 73 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐 𝑭𝑬 24 25 14 37 18.62 30.38 19.38 31.62 5.38 -5.38 -5.38 5.38 28.94 28.94 28.94 28.94 1.5542 0.9526 1.4933 0.9152 X2= 4.92 Since calculated value of X2 is greater than CV, 4.92 is greater than 3.841, therefore H0/Null hypothesis is rejected and it reveals the existence of relationship the trans-border crime/legitimate trade and the rising wave of insurgency in Nigeria where the two variables/indices were used to test the hypothese raised for this study. SOUTH-WEST ZONE (B): Test of significance of the Null Hypotheses (H0) Using sampled respondents from Lagos state/High sea, this study utilized Trans- border and Legitimate Trade dichotomy to explain its two hypotheses above from the descriptive and interpretive point of view and also subjected the null hypothesis to more inferential statistical analyses. Hence, the two hypotheses raised were tested for significance at P< 0.05 In Lagos state/High Sea in the South-West zone of Nigeria, Trans- border trade and legitimate trade dichotomy were used to analyze the two null hypotheses. H01: There is no significant relationship between Trans-border crime/Legitimate Trade as to determine whether due to its (arms proliferation across Nigerian borders) frequent border conflicts that is usually occasioned by political power struggle during electioneering process in Nigeria will enhance arms hostilities within the Nigerian border in Lagos state and other High sea areas that link to Lagos in the South-West zone. Evidence from the sample survey conducted as it is shown below in this study reveals that, the first null hypothesis is rejected where calculated value of X2 is greater than Critical table value (CV), 4.94 > 3.841 at P <0.05. This shows that there is a perfect agreement between our first hypotheses and the indices/variables that we used to measure or determine whether political power struggled in the South-west Nigeria has a nexus with arms and non- arms smuggled in the zone. It can be explained further since our test has rejected the initial null hypothesis that trans-border crime and legitimate trade have a high implication as to the cause of arms hostilities that have been ravaging Nigeria for several years most especially during the electioneering campaign process in Nigeria. 74 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com H02: That there is no significance relationship between Trans-border crime/ Legitimate trade in the Lagos state/High Sea route to the south-west and poverty, inequality, and other forms of social neglects as to whether due to the (Rising wave of border conflicts/Insurgency) multiplier effects in the society that can be blamed or linked to the incessant and unwarranted violent conflicts in the zone. This hypothesis was tested for significance using Chi-square test and below table shows the synopsis of the analysis in which α= 0.05, Degree of freedom = (r- 1) (c – 1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1, Critical Value (CV) = 3.841 where the calculated X2= 4.94 and our test here rejected the null hypothesis that is earlier formulated which deny the existence of relationship between the indices/variables used and the null hypothesis. This is an indication that trans-border conflicts occasioned by political power struggled and unemployment/poverty has a direct link to the rising wave of insurgency and other ethnic militancy struggle in Nigeria. Interpretation for H01 and HO2: Since our calculated value of X2 is greater than CV, 4.94 > 3.841, therefore H01/Null hypothesis as formulated above in this study is rejected at P<0.05. This shows there is a perfect agreement between our earlier hypotheses (H01 and H02) which deny the existence of no relationship between the two variables. Since the two Null hypotheses have been rejected by d test, it further reveals that the quest for political power struggle during electioneering process among Politicians from the South-West zone is a consequence of rising wave of insurgency vis-à-vis arms hostilities in the. Hence, there is a nexus between poverty, inequality with other forms of social neglects where trans-border crime and legitimate trade can be attributed to the unceasing/rising nature insurgency in the zone. Our analysis from South- West zone in Nigeria shows that the two null hypotheses using arms and non- arms smuggled dichotomy were rejected at P< 0.05 level of significance and chi- square table below gives a reliable credence to the above analysis: Table 7: Chi-square test for Null hypothesis in South-South zone (Lagos state/High Sea) Frequency Observed (FO) SEX Trans-border Crime Legitimate Border Trade Total Column MALE 27 16 43 FEMALE 23 34 57 Total Row 50 50 100 Overall total X2 = (𝐹𝑂−𝐹𝐸)2 𝐹𝐸 as Chi-square formula where FO= Frequency Observed, FE= Frequency Expected. Frequency Expected (FE) 75 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji To calculate (FE), we use 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝐶𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝑁 ×𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 𝑅𝑂𝑊 𝑂𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑂𝑇𝐴𝐿 F0 FE (FO-FE) (FO-FE)2 (𝑭𝑶 − 𝑭𝑬)𝟐 𝑭𝑬 27 16 23 34 21.5 21.5 28.5 28.5 5.5 -5.5 -5.5 5.5 30.25 30.25 30.25 30.25 1.4070 1.4070 1.0614 1.0614 X2= 4.94 X2 = 4.94 calculated value of X2 is greater than Critical table value (CV), 4.94 > 3.841, this implies that the null hypothesis is rejected and further reveals that there is a relationship between the trans-border-crime/legitimate trade and the rising wave of insurgency in Nigeria as occasioned by political power struggle during electioneering process, social inequality, unemployment, and other forms of social neglects in Nigeria. NIGERIA AND THE ISSUES OF SMALL ARMS PROLIFERATION: A BAIT OR TREND The Nigerian environment is not new to the presence of small arms and light weapons. Apart from the ended civil war in 1970, Berman (2014), in an arms survey revealed that armed groups obtain small arms from several sources among which are peace operations, from poorly guarded state stockpiles and from gullible security agents. With the highest and worst porous border in Sub-Saharan Africa, starting from the Nigeria border to Cameroon, (from Akpabioyo in Calabar up to Gembu in Saudana local government in Adamawa and Borno to Cameroon border in the North East), the Nigeria- Chad –Niger border (stretching from Sokoto, Kano, Kastina, Gombe, Yobe to Borno), the Nigeria – Benin – Togo borders (beginning from Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Kwara, Niger up to Sokoto states) informed of a loose territory that infiltration and trespassing cannot be comprehended daily. A situation that it is possible to say, that the Nigeria state stands at the mercy of each individual and groups who are in constant suspicion of each other’s’ might, like in the days of cold war paradigm. This is because the number of weapons in the hand of the individual and/or group outnumbered the armed forces and police arms and ammunition in their armouries combined, except the latter’s armoured tanks. With several challenges in the past, which bothered on coups and counter coups with importation of arms, political instabilities, inter-ethnic and religious clashes in the ‘90s, the military annulment of June 12, 1993 elections, the activities of the ethnic militias of OPC, APC, Bakassi Boys and Egbesu; 76 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com the activities of militants like MOSOP, MEND and NDVF insurgence in the Niger Delta and the MASSOB among others (Ikelegbe, 2014), to which the country was highly militarized. A situation that sees the embrace of democracy in 1999 as an eye opener for everyone, people and group to agitate for their rights and seek justice where possible. These conditions and processes that seem to have quickened the possession of arms illegally by many were unchecked. Coupled with the kind of hate exhibited against the military by both the over-caged political class, the depressed and depraved in the society, to which the hastiness at the demilitarization, dislocation of military locations and barracks and lessening of command structural powers among others helped the easy flow of small arms and ammunitions into the country by dubious old brigade politicians and their tutored - new breeds that are more deadly and over adventurous than ever were seen manipulating things , while pretending to allow the military to go back to the barracks without any checkmating at all are part of the outcome of where we are today. However, to further examine the presence of small arms and light weapons proliferations in Nigeria, the following points shall be considered: (i) Politicians and Illicit Arms Agreeing that power is the currency of politics (Deustch, 1957), and that to acquire political power based on interest aggregation (Frankel, 1993), that the average Nigerian politician tends to be ruthless with intimidation, manipulation, propaganda and scheming (Plano and Riggs, 1953) against the would be opponents. Premised on this, it is evident that some politician spent huge amount of money in acquiring small arms to fortify self and march their words and intents in achieving desired goals with violence. Thus, ICG (2009), in its arms survey noted that between 2002 and 2007 that over 35% of illegal small arms and light weapons acquired into Nigeria by some fastidious and over ambitious politicians were in a bid to gain political power into the different elective offices in the Nigerian new democratic dispensation. A revelation that was confirmed by Davis (2014), when he stated in an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Service that one thing he noticed on arrival in 2004 in Nigeria was that politicians at the beginning of every electioneering year import and amass weapons to pursue political power, using thugs and militia groups. Thus, implying that arms acquisition in Nigeria is seen as a trend amongst political actors. And that whereby a potential politician fails to acquire arms, then, he or she has not started the journey toward power acquisition. In the same continuum, Obasi (2014), further argued that both State armed groups and Non-state armed groups like the militias and militant groups through the help of Retired Servicemen in the different ethnic groups commonly aid the possession of illegal arms as they help radicalized, 77 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji indoctrinated and facilitated with greed and ideological argument of self- protection, which could equally be seen as a planted taproot of arms, a bait for violence. In the same period, arms struggles were noted among some opposing political parties in Osun, Oyo, Ondo, Anambra, Lagos, Plateau, Kaduna, Kano, Enugu, AkwaIbom, Rivers, Kogi and Benue States among others. These catchments of arms and light weapons are still missing in actions as they are not seen, retrieved or recovered by the law enforcement agents from the indecent politicians till today while those that felt into the hand of touts and thugs are still being used to terrorize the general society. Merging these contentions with the observation of Danjibo (2014), while quoting from the studies of Mensah (2002) and Obasi (2002), as noted, that it is very clear that there are between one and three million small arms and light weapons circulating in Nigeria, which is excluded from the figures before the crisis in Libya and the terrorist activities of Boko Haram. Thereby, agreeing with Vendley and Ali (2010) that small arms and light weapons are easy to carry. Just as recently demonstrated by the PDP governorship candidate for Lagos state in 2015 at Iju road campaign, where the thugs and policemen were shooting sporadically because of the handiness of the arms that they were carrying. Small arms cause massive and widespread death and injury. Easy to use, conceal and maintain. They are primary tools of political violence in almost every conflict where the innocent suffer most (ii) Transborder Trade On Small Arms and Light Weapon Trans-border trade in small arms and light weapons, apart from the trade in blood diamond and gold seems to be more lucrative even over illicit drug and human trafficking because over there at the border line these items are considered as both trend and bait. The buyers and sellers come with different intention as the purpose and dictates of it centred on power, money, violence, protection and control. With Nigeria, being a transit route for drug, the trade in small arms puts the country’s territorial boundaries at a great danger. Moreover, with the end of the Libyan war and Arab spring, all the arms used in that war were shifted down to the Sahel region, to which the Northern part of the country has witnessed a terrible arms struggle with the existence of Boko Haram insurgence. Coupled with the several porous border and corrupt security agencies, illegal arms importation and trade have been on the high side. The Boko Haram sects’ relationship with the Tuaregrebels in Mali, the Egyptian connection, the rebel group in Mauritania, the Muslim rebel group inCentral African Republic and their recent engaged relationship with the Islamist State in Iraq (IS) make the in- flow of small arms and light weapon a daily occurrence. Thus, thereby supporting the view of Boutwell and Klare (2000), that trans-border trade and crime enhance the transfer of deadly weapons from country to country, just as their ownership is transferred among fighters, security forces and war 78 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com profiteers. It is obvious also, that once weapon enter an area, they can remain there for many years. Guns in particular have a functional lifetime of many years. Small arms change the dynamic of conflict instantly (Vendley and Ali, 2010) argued. The question that no one seems to be attending to is, what effect is the role of the ECOWAS moratorium/Convention document of 1998, signed by each member states in 2006? The moratorium is strategy devised to control the spread and misuse of small arms. This legal binding document prohibits the spread, misuse, conceal or otherwise the related material and the small arms and light weapon and their ammunition (Badmus, 2009). This is due to the fact that while members of the ECOWAS are committed not to import, support or manufacture small arms and light weapon, the arms had continued to enter the sub-region to fanned conflicts owing to the joy the people derive in acquiring it as a bait and trends. Meaning that there is mistrust somewhere, as that betrayal of trust now affects Nigeria with the flooding of small arms and light weapons on the streets of the country. (iii) Poverty, Unemployment and Easy Usage of Arms According to Tabaiyaka (2003), Africa remains the most food deficient continent in the world, to which Nigeria house over 46% level of poor people, with a growing unemployment rate of over 55% of the population, despite her rich wealth. The question is: what is Nigeria government doing with her wealth and endowed natural resources? This is because according to Sach (1998) and Tabaiyaka (2003), the prediction is so grim, that unless radical measures are adopted, the story might be different. In addition, Danjibo (2014) notes that it is not only on what goes into the mouth, but the process of obtaining those scarce natural resources like who owns the parcel of land among others. He concluded by saying that it is the poverty of the owner of property and space that the Ife versus Modakeke communal conflicts had hinged on for years in destroying the society. That, in one of the face-off, 1995/1996, that people were amazed by the quantum of SALWs that were used during the period of conflict. Thereby, underlining the available evidence that poverty allows for easy manipulation of the people to pick or sought to acquire arms to fighting a course since the people has seen the acquisition of arms as trend and a bait to confronting the enemy. The youths are so impatient and frustrated that they can now accept to fight on the side of insurgence or sees themselves as veritable tools for war or crisis, so as to escape the sting of poverty and unemployment (Galadima, 2014). Thus, increasing the growing strength and number of the militia groups, militants and even those that joined the Boko Haram insurgence could be traced to these shortcomings of unemployment and poverty. In the same continuum, Badmus (2009), noted that in the midst of poverty and lack of wants that the spread of small arms prevail faster. Their 79 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji effects are devastating as many agree to pick up arms in support of bad and corrupt leaders thereby yielding to the awaiting arms bait pivot to go ahead with arms violence. In a vicious cycle, they are both the cause and effect of violence. They not only kill the innocent, they also maim, prolong conflict, choke development and deepen poverty. (iv). Internal Mechanism Working against the numerous government policies on reducing the in- flow of small arms and light weapon into the country is the devious effect of internal mechanism. Despite, the fact that Nigeria is a signatory to several of the International Documents, Conventions, Protocols, Embagos, Political Code of Conducts, Frameworks, Moratorium and Declarations among others, it still sound incomprehensive, negating and absurd that she could not curtail the huge in- flow of illicit arms into the country owing to disloyalty and corruption. This deception, mistrust and betrayal that has aided arms as trend and bait in the country are pinned on the failure of the various security agencies in checkmating the flooding of the country’s border with illicit trades and banditry. The custom and excise department might not be sincere in implementing to letter the new ports inspection policies, just as their compatriots at the border might have pretended to be unaware of the bringing in of illegal firearms and prohibited materials into the country unchecked. It is only in some cases of where the identified smuggler fails to settle by way of gratification that arrest and possible public display of such are seen in the media. The custom and other security agencies at the border also are careless about the level of infiltration into the country by unknown arms banditry or people who at times disguises as cattle herdsmen or pastoral who also smuggle in small arms into the country unmonitored. In the armed forces, the ethics of the job are not only slipping off from the command structure, but internal wrangling and disloyalty seem to have pervaded the ranks and files. The possibility that many soldiers and officers’ loyalties are questionable is not in doubt with recent happenings. A ploy which also paved the way for small arms and light weapons to be smuggled into the country unchecked, with corruption as a possible bait to enhancing arms in – flow into the country. Complementing this observation, Danjibo (2014), was quick to point out that the soldiers who arrived from operation ground like Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali and Sudan/Daffur among others may not be honest enough to declare their arms completely. There are the tendency that some might acquire illegal arms unknown to their commanders and as such in turn bring it into the country unchecked and unregistered. Such actions have not only contributed in increasing the quantities of small arms but acted as a failed internal mechanism to aid conflict and violence in future as 80 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com the soldiers and even their civilian friends now possess arms. The Nigerian police not different from the rest, with a huge task to perform, have not in any way proved an average Nigerian wrong on the bad image sentiment. If not true, one wonders how those with these illegal small arms crossed the purported check points uncaught. The armed forces, police and custom and excise department are the eyes of the society and major player in checkmating the in- flow of small arms and light weapons into the country. Since it is obvious that small arms afflict countries in conflict acting as a bait and those in peace acting as a trend and are available long after conflict has ended (Vendley and Ali, 2010), something must be done before we are turned victims. The statistics that over 55% of small arms and light weapon in Nigeria are illegally acquired and are in wrong hands remains a fact. Small arms and light weapon proliferation as indicated in the above discourse have been particularly devastating with every geo- political zone inclusive. Small arms have killed and displaced many civilians across the country, and to which the people of North-East Nigeria are currently passing through such ugly trend up till today. The major end users and possible recipients of these arms acting as both trend and a bait in Nigeria are the ethnic cum religious militias, political thugs, armed robbers, kidnappers, terrorist groups, private security guards and cult groups among others. The General Implications In view of the direction and context of this study, the followings stand out as the possible implications: i. The issue of small arms and light weapon proliferation in Nigeria as observed should be tackled with carefulness, especially while attending to the problems of dispute, disagreement and political misunderstandings, as any miscalculation of such might trigger- off unassumable confrontation leading to conflict since it is presumably clear that arms are already a bait and trend in the country. The already tensed society need a capacity building mechanism that could be used to sway the mind of many into moral consciousness and reasoning rather than many seeing arms possession as a trend that is mandatory for every home to acquire. ii. Poverty breeds violence. And arms as a bait under manipulation and brainwashing can induce youths into arms conflict. Hence, it is an onus on the government to initiate a programme that could keep some percentage of the population, especially the youths busy daily instead of looking for or indulging in something that fans conflict or restiveness. iii. The political class who are part of these problems should have a change of mind, especially in expressing sentiments, wanting power at all cost, or even openly criticizing negatively, as the followers are 81 | P a g e Arms Proliferation and the Rise of Insurgency in Nigeria: A Trend or A Bait? Okechukwu, Groupson-Paul UC.; Ayodeji O. Adedeji always ever ready to hear from them. They should see politics and its gaming skills as sporting engagement instead of seeking for power endlessly. As the negating likelihood might lead to arms struggle, or the same arms being turned against the society. Therefore, such unhealthy competition that might jeopardize the stability of the entire nation should be avoided. iv. The strength of every nation lies in its security forces. Hence, the nation’s security forces should be strengthened, updated, retrained and made to be in tune with the best practices. The various failures in checkmating crime, smuggling-in of small arms and light weapons among other, trans-border trades are due to the negating values of what security duty and its goals were all about in a nation like this. We don’t rule out the issue of bad eggs, corrupt ones, disloyal ones, and incompetent ones, but the reinforcing of ethics of the duty with the necessary provision makes a better security agent. For it is when such trust and loyalty fails that the need to seek for help outside arises, as not attending to those shortfalls exposes the nation to all form of ridicules and fear of any threat and unknown. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION Arguably, the degree of small arms and light weapon proliferation is not only complex and high, but this study has come to agree that several arms are scattered all over the streets of the geopolitical zones, thereby acting as both trends and bait to the several insurgency being witnessed by the country. And that it is only as many – individuals as possible, who are desirous of peace that can help in putting an end to this deadly monster. For like a time- bomb, waiting to explode, the urgent attendance to the factors discussed above will in a million help to reduce tension. As the evidence of the catchment of illicit small arms and light weapons available on the street are more than what the army, police and security agents have in their armouries combined, with exception of armoured tanks. Firstly, Nigeria has to avoid the possible trend of arms circulation in homesjust as it is abhorred by our constitution; we need to tackle our problems squarely by reducing the rate of arms acting as a bait for conflict. Secondly, the government should if possible, declare an amnesty in each geopolitical zone to mop-up illicit small arms in the country with rewards attached. Thirdly, the authority with its agencies such as NOA, Women Affairs, Youth Development, Religious bodies and NGOs, should establish a Conflict/Violence Education Programme to educate every average Nigeria on the need to stay away from conflict and violent. The negative imports and consequences, which outweighs the intent, are very disastrous. Fourthly, since it is evident that security lapses and loophole have considerably 82 | P a g e ESCET Journal of Educational Research and Policy Studies (ESCJERPS) Vol. 1 ISSN: Print 2811-2717 https://journal.escetjerps.com contributed to the in-flow of illicit small arms and light weapons into the country, the government should task the agencies to strengthen their services to checkmate this awful security breaches. Fifth, there should also be an opening up of the economy by the government to partner with the private sectors on the area concerned with initiatives for creating jobs, so as to reduce the level of unemployment and poverty. Evidence, has showed that job lost, idleness and unemployment are veritable tools to small arms and violent induced crimes. Nigeria, being a signatory to several of the regional, Africa and international instruments or conventions on illegal arms procurement, proliferations and promotion of violence, need to harmonize her laws with, especially the ECOWAS Convention on small arms and light weapons proliferations. In that light, Nigeria must endeavor to sustain the full implementation of the UN programme of action on the prevention, combat and eradication of illicit trades in SALW in all of its aspects. The ATT universal legal instrument for regulating arms manufacturing, exportation, importation, transfer and booking, to which she is a signatory to must be adhered to strictly. With such an action, the tendency and possibility that the issues of arms proliferation, the rising wave of insurgency and prospecting violence with these arms acting as both a bait and trend would be curtailed to the barest minimum. 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