E u r o p e a n  I n t e g r a t i o n  S t u d i e s 2 0 1 7 / 1 1
98

Twenty Years of “Growth, Jobs 
And Investments” Strategy 
in the European Union–
Macroeconomic Developments 
After the Maastricht Treaty

http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.eis.0.11.18959

Jari Kaivo-oja
Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Åkerlundinkatu 
2 A, 33100 Tampere, jari.kaivo-oja@utu.fi

Teemu Haukioja
Pori Unit, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Pohjoisranta 11 A, 28101 Pori, tophau@utu.fi

Ari Karppinen
School of Management, University of Tampere, ari.karppinen@uta.fi 

Submitted  
04/2017

Accepted for  
publication 
08/2017

Twenty Years of 
“Growth, Jobs 
And Investments” 
Strategy in the 
European Union–
Macroeconomic 
Developments After 
the Maastricht Treaty

EIS 11/2017

Abstract

European Integration Studies
No. 11 / 2017
pp. 98-109
DOI 10.5755/j01.eis.0.11.18959 
© Kaunas University of Technology

Since the creation of the EU, its focal economic objective has been to achieve economic growth and 
improved employment. The European Union’s present ’Growth, Jobs and Investments’ –strategy (GJI) 
is a recent attempt to promote these goals. Since the global economic and financial crisis the EU has 
been suffering from low level of investments. The purpose of this study is to assess the development of 
growth, employment, and investments in the Member States from 1995 to 2015. For this purpose, a rel-
atively simple ‘GEI-index’ is developed. This aggregate index is a composition of indicators in GJI, which 
in general evolve in the same direction. The study provides: (1) a comparative evaluation of the haves and 
losers among the EU countries and (2) an empirical summary for the main objectives in the GJI-strategy. 
The primary methods used are based on the GEI indicator and data-analyses. The key findings of the 
study are: First, there seems to be some catching up concerning new member states that joined in the 
EU in the 2000s. Second, during the whole period from 1995 to the beginning of the financial crisis all the 
EU-28 countries – including the late members – show a positive development in the GEI-index. However, 
from 2009 to 2015 seven countries – all of which belong into the euro area –had declining GEI-index. 
These same countries had low level of investments and long lasting economic recession. Third, all the 
other EU-28 countries, but except Greece, had positive development in the GEI-index in 2015 as com-
pared to the previous year. Obviously, our GEI-analyses cannot give a straight answer about the success 
of the EU’s GJI-strategy as such. However, we see that our GEI-index provides a simple but effective 
tool for the practical assessments of the EU’s growth policies. It is easy to interpret and visualize. Based 
on our illustration of the GEI-index, we recommend that there is a serious need to re-evaluate the EU’s 
growth strategies and economic policies concerning the employment and investments.

KEYWORDS: EU strategies, economic growth, employment, index, investments, macroeconomics.



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Introduction
The purpose of this paper is to elaborate macroeconomic development in the EU–28 region in years 
1995–2015. We evaluate the success of the European Union’s ‘Growth, Jobs, and Investments’ strat-
egy over the twenty years using the Eurostat Database (2017). The long run EU policy was built on 
three elements: (1) the Maastricht Treaty, (2) the Stability and Growth Pact, and (3) the Lisbon Strategy. 
These three conventions define the general framework for economic policies in the EU (see e.g. Calm-
fors 2001, Buiter, 2005, Buti et al. 2005, Collingnon 2009, Bednarek-Sekunda et al. 2010, Dubra 2016).

The Maastricht Treaty defined the fiscal framework for Member States. The Stability and Growth Pact 
mainly included the rules for the Excessive Deficit Procedure under Article 126 of the Treaty (formerly 
Article 104). The Lisbon Strategy was set up by the EU Heads of State or Governments in March 2000. It 
included the ambitious aim of turning the EU into ‘the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based 
economy in the word capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater 
social cohesion.’ (Lisbon European Council Conclusions 2000) In the report ‘Investment for Jobs and 
Growth’ (2014), the European Commission defined the third pillar of EU’s economic strategy. 

The article is organized as follows. First, we describe macroeconomic growth as a strategic tar-
get in the EU-28 region. Second, we elaborate employment, and finally, investments are inspect-
ed. In Summary, we present key statistical findings of the GJI index examination. We conclude 
that the most problematic target of the EU policies is that economic growth and investments 
have not created jobs, i.e., the jobless growth problem can be recognized (see Ioannou et al. 2008, 
European Commission 2005, 2014, Demosthenes & Stracca 2014, Christiansen et al. 2012).

Figure 1 shows average gross domestic product at market prices in the EU-28 countries, current 
prices, PPS per capita, years 1995-2015. The purchasing power standard (PPS) is the name for 
the artificial currency unit in which the PPPs and real final expenditures for the EU-28 are ex-
pressed in euros, constructed by Eurostat (OECD 2007). 

Figure 1 reveals that Benelux countries, Nordic countries, Austria, Germany, and Ireland have the 
highest per capita GDP levels, which can be interpreted as a crude measure of potential mate-
rial well-being. Baltic countries, Eastern European countries, and Mediterranean countries have 
relatively lower per capita GDP levels. There are huge differences in potential economic welfare 
between the Member States, for example, per capita GDP in Luxemburg is almost six time higher 
than in Bulgaria. France and the UK stand on quite average positions.

Growth as 
a strategic 
target in the 
EU-28 region

 

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Average gross domestic product at market prices, current  
prices, PPS per capita, years 1995-2015

Figure 1 
Average gross domestic 
product at market prices 
in the EU-28 countries, 
current prices, PPS per 
capita, years 1995-2015

Source: Eurostat 2017.



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100

In Figure 2 we present average final consumption expenditure in the EU-28 countries. This gives 
another viewpoint to the potential material welfare that economic growth can bring to citizens 
as consumers. 

Figure 2 
Average final 
consumption 

expenditure in the EU-
28 countries, current 

prices, PPS per capita, 
years 1995-2015

Source: Eurostat 2017.

Figure 3 
Average final 
consumption 

expenditure of general 
government in the 

EU-28 countries, 
current prices, PPS 

per capita, years 
1995-2016

 Source: Eurostat 2017.

 

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Average final consumption expenditure in the EU-28 countries, 
current prices, PPS per capita, years 1995-2015

Few interesting observations can be made. As compared to Figure 1, (1) Baltic, Eastern Europe-
an, and Mediterranean countries retain their relative positions. (2) In France consumers gain the 
average level of consumption expenditure, but interestingly, the British consumers get higher 
benefits in relation to their position in the GDP growth, that is even higher than in Germany. (3) 
Distinctively, Finland seems to drop out from the group of Nordic countries in consumption. That 
is, Finnish consumers are in much weaker position than their Nordic neighbors, even with a sim-
ilar kind of success in potential well-being. In Figure 3 we report the average final consumption 
expenditures of general governments in the EU.

Figure 3 raises some interesting questions concerning economic growth policy and the role of 
government in welfare generation processes. Figures 1, 2 and 3 suggest that there might be some 

 

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Average final consumption expenditure of general government in 
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causalities going on. Namely, the countries that have shown higher success in potential welfare 
also have higher final consumption expenditure of general government, and vice versa. European 
average is about 4500–5000 euros per capita. In Greece, this public expenditure is less than 4000 
euros per capita. In fact, Greece seems to be a distinctive outlier in this respect. This observation 
gives some alarming features that should be scrutinized for policy re-evaluation that Figure 4 rein-
forces. Figure 4 describes the average real rate of per capita GDP growth in the countries.

Figure 4 
Average annual real 
growth rate (%) of 
GDP per capita in 
the EU-28 countries, 
chain linked 
volumes, years 
1995-2016

Source: Eurostat 2017.

 

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1,0 %
2,0 %
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10,0 %

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Average annual real growth rate (%) of GDP per capita in the EU-28 
countries, chain linked volumes, years 1995-2016

It is notable that the Baltic countries and Eastern European countries show very high growth 
rates and growth of real labor productivity (Fig. 5). However, Greece is no longer part of this 
group, as it was elsewhere, but lacks the high growth that is the most critical factor for the pos-
sibility to increase well-being in the future. The growth rates of Mediterranean countries have 
generally been low. Despite this, as Figure 2 suggests, consumers in these countries have en-
joyed relatively high consumption. In the long run this can be a threat to economic sustainability.

Figure 5 
Average annual 
growth rate (%) of 
real labor productivity 
per hour worked in 
the EU-28 countries, 
percentage change 
on previous year, 
years 1996-2016

Source: Eurostat 2017.

 

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Average annual growth rate (%) of real labour productivity per hour
worked in the EU-28 countries, percentage change on previous

year, years 1996-2016



E u r o p e a n  I n t e g r a t i o n  S t u d i e s 2 0 1 7 / 1 1
102

In Figure 6 we elaborate the average changes of employment in the EU-28 countries in peri-
od 2001–2016. The successful Member States in employment have been: Luxembourg, Malta, 
Ireland and Cyprus. On the other hand, the less successful countries have been some latest 
EU-members and EURO-members that have been in economic troubles after the recent eco-
nomic crisis: Romania, Portugal, Greece, Latvia and Lithuania. 

Employment 
as a strategic 

target in the 
EU-28 region

Investment 
as a strategic 

target in the 
EU-28 region

Figure 6 
Total changes of 

employment, total 
employment domestic 

concept, all NACE 
activities, average of 

percentage change on 
previous period (based 

on persons)

Source: Eurostat 2017.

 
-2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5

Romania
Portugal

Greece
Latvia

Lithuania
Hungary

Denmark
Slovenia
Bulgaria

European Union (28 countries)
Estonia

Italy
France

Netherlands
Euro area (19 countries)

Czech Republic
Germany

Finland
Poland

Belgium
Sweden

Spain
Slovakia

United Kingdom
Austria
Croatia
Cyprus
Ireland

Malta
Luxembourg

Total changes of employment, total employment domestic concept, all NACE 
activities, average of percentage change on previous period (based on 

persons, 2001-2016).

In the field of investment policy, the EU-28 region has not followed a unified strategy. Figures 7–9 
show that the investment policies among Member States vary. Some countries show business 
investment while others seem to be more oriented towards public investment. The total invest-
ment percent in the EU-28 countries varies from 17.3 (UK) to 28.8% (Czech Republic). 

Business investments dominate investment activity in many Easter European countries (Czech 
Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Slovenia). The lowest business investment ac-
tivity is in Greece (Fig. 8). 

Public government investment activities are reported in Figure 9. Government investment ac-
tivities have deviate from 2.2% to 5.2% while business investments deviate from 6.5% to 19.2%. 
Estonia is showing the biggest investment rate while Germany has the smallest rate of govern-
ment investment.



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Figure 7 
Average level of total 
investment, % of GDP 
in the EU-28 countries, 
EU-28 region and Euro 
area, average of years 
2002-2015

 

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Total investment, by institutional sectors, % of GDP in the EU-28 countries, EU- 28 region and Euro area

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Business investment, by institutional sectors, % of GDP in the EU-28 countries, 
EU-28 region and Euro area

 

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Government investment, by institutional sectors, % of GDP in the EU-28 
countries, EU-28 region and Euro area

Source: Eurostat 2017.

Figure 8 
Average level of total 
business investment, 
by institutional sectors, 
% of GDP in the EU-28 
countries, EU-28 region 
and Euro area, average 
of years 2002-2015. Data 
from Luxembourg and 
Malta are missing

Source: Eurostat 2017.

Figure 9 
Average level of total 
government investment, 
by institutional sectors, 
% of GDP in the EU-28 
countries, EU-28 region 
and Euro area, average of 
years 2002-2015

Source: Eurostat 2017.



E u r o p e a n  I n t e g r a t i o n  S t u d i e s 2 0 1 7 / 1 1
104

To summarize development in relation to ‘Growth, Jobs and Investment’, we have calculated a 
GEI Index, which gives equal weight (1/3) to each economic policy goal. Officially, the European 
Union and its Member States aim to get more economic growth, jobs and investments. The GEI 
Index is defined as follows:

GEI = 1/3 * [Indicator of the change in GDP + Indicator of the change in Jobs (Employment) + 
Indicator of the change in Investments (Total investments)].

In other words, the GEI-index is a summation of the individual indicators in the form of change. 
In economic theory, GDP, Employment and Investments are correlated and, for example, the 
nation’s aggregate demand identity is the summation of private consumption, investment, pub-
lic expenditure and net export. However, the purpose of the index is not to describe structural 
functions or economic causalities for analytical purposes. Instead, the GEI-index can be used to 
describe the comprehensive development of chosen policy variables with one figure. This can 
be justified, because according to economic theory, all these variables develop at the same di-
rection despite of the causalities and possible loops: investments increase GDP, which increases 
demand, which increases employment, which increases demand and investments, etc. and vice 
versa. As we see below, this kind of index tool can give very interesting results and points of view 
for further analyses.

In Figure 10 we report minimum, median, and maximum levels of the GEI Index for EU-28 countries. 

It is important to understand that different Member States have very specific starting conditions 
for their economic policies. The new Member States have faced more big differences in the key 
factors. The established EU Member States have shown quite stable development. 

Figure 11 indicates that the observations are compatible with the endogenous growth theory, 
according to which less developed countries have potential to catch up more advanced countries 
in economic development (for example, see Aghion & Howitt 1998, Barro & Sala-i-Martin 2004). 
The catching up requires active economic and growth policies. Possibly the most important pol-
icy variables that affect growth processes are investments in R&D&I and education. In practice, 
for an individual Member State, catching up can be pursued by the effective utilization of the STI 
(science, technology and innovation) policy programs that the European Union provides. 

As an example, countries like Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria and Romania have the highest 
GEI-index (measured as median) in Figure 11. Correspondingly, in Figure 1 we can see that the 

Summary of the 
macroeconomic 

evaluation

Figure 10 
Min, Median and Max 

GEI Indices of the EU-
28 countries, years 

1995-2015

 

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300
400
500
600
700
800

Min, Median and Max GEI Indices of the EU-28 countries, years
1995-2015

Min Median Max



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same countries have the lowest per capita GDP. This can be interpreted that catching up process-
es has indeed occurred.

In Figure 12, relative contribution of sub-indicators on the GEI-index in the EU-28 countries are 
reported. 

The average annual relative deviation (percentage) from the annual average value of the GEI-in-
dex is reported in Figure 12. We can observe that the annual average of GDP and investments 
indicators between 1995 and 2015 have increased the annual average value of the GEI index (in 
exception of investments in Croatia and Germany). Correspondingly, the employment indicator 

Figure 11 
Best performance 
ranking of EU´s official 
strategy of growth, 
jobs and investments, 
EU-28-countries, years 
1995-2015 (based on GEI-
index-analysis)

 

0
100
200
300
400

Best performance ranking of EU´s official strategy of growth, jobs
and invesments, EU-28-countries, years 1995-2015

Figure 12 
Relative contribution 
of sub-indicators on 
GEI-index in the EU-28 
countries, ranked by the 
growth of investment 
sub-index, annual 
average 1995-2015

 

-100,0 % -80,0 % -60,0 % -40,0 % -20,0 % 0,0 % 20,0 % 40,0 % 60,0 % 80,0 % 100,0 %

Bulgaria
Latvia

Poland
Romania

Estonia
Sweden

Lithuania
Slovakia
Hungary

Finland
Slovenia

Ireland
France
Greece

Denmark
Luxembourg

Italy
Spain

United Kingdom
Czech Republic

Belgium
Portugal

Malta
Netherlands

Cyprus
Austria

Germany
Croatia

dev. GDP-I dev. EMP-I dev. INV-I



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106

has decreased the magnitude of the GEI-index. In relative terms, investments in Bulgaria, Latvia 
and Poland have had a considerable importance the growth of their GEI indices. On the other 
hand, the employment indicators have reduced the GEI-indices for all the countries. This may 
indicate the so-called ‘jobless growth’ effect where economic growth is not able to increase em-
ployment as effectively as previously has been the case.

Next, we summarize the trends of the GEI Indices. Financial crisis caused discernible problems 
for the Growth, Jobs and Investment strategy. In Figures 13 and 14 we present the development 
of the GEI indices in years 1995-2008 (before financial crisis) and in 2009-2015 (after financial 
crisis). These figures show that European economies enjoyed positive development before the 
financial crisis (we call this as ‘fun-effect’), but after financial crisis we can identify the so called 
‘fan effect’ where parallel progress dispersed. 

During the area of the fun effect of European integration, steady economic growth can be rec-
ognized in Europe. As the GEI indices in Figure 13 show, especially Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, 

Conclusions

Figure 13 
GEI -index (1995=100) 

in the EU-28 countries, 
years 1995–2008

 

 

 

 

 



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E u r o p e a n  I n t e g r a t i o n  S t u d i e s 2 0 1 7 / 1 1

Estonia and Romania benefitted from the growth and jobs strategy, at least in relative terms, 
even though they joined in the EU at the later stage.

Figure 14 displays the fan effect, i.e. the dispersion of economic development after the financial 
crisis. We can recognize two kinds of countries. First, Malta, Lithuania, Estonia, the UK, Ireland 
and Sweden have been winners according to the GEI indices. Second, Greece, Cyprus, Spain and 
Portugal have lost the most as the GEI indices are negative as compared to year 2009. 

It seems that there are three main processes behind the fan effect: First, the decline of invest-
ment activities in the latter countries explains almost all of the drop in the GEI index. The in-
vestments explain also the success of the former countries, their total investments have been 
growing steadily. Second, successful countries have recovered quite soon from economic decline 
in GDP. Instead, unsuccessful countries have had great difficulties to reach the growth path. Third, 
the employment indicators show no drastic changes in general, even though the development 

Figure 14 
GEI-index (1995=100) 
in the EU-28 countries, 
years 2009–2015

  
 

  

 
 



E u r o p e a n  I n t e g r a t i o n  S t u d i e s 2 0 1 7 / 1 1
108

has been positive in the first group of countries, and negative in the latter group. As exception, 
Greece has suffered quite radically.

We can summarize that:

 _ Practical and easily interpreted indicator analyses for the objectives of the EU’s growth strat-
egies – like ‘Growth, Jobs and Investments’” – can give a concise picture of the real world 
development to support the decision-makers and policy-makers knowledge needs both at the 
EU level and national level as well.

 _ Aggregate indices – like the GEI-index (Growth, Employment, Investment) constructed in this 
study – can reveal successful and regressive member states in relation to the objectives of 
EU’s growth strategies.

 _ GEI-index performance varies a lot among the EU-28 countries. During the steady economic 
growth between 1995 and 2007 the GEI indices were positive for all member states.

 _ The GEI-index analysis suggests that financial crisis years (since 2008) have been very chal-
lenging for the Growth strategies of the European Union: The exceptional ‘fan effect’ can be 
recognized among the EU countries. Seven euro countries have fallen deep and long lasting 
recession, and concurrently the rest of the EU countries had performed better. 

 _ Comparison of the year 2015 to the previous year, the GEI indices have risen for all but Greece. 

 _ Versatile indicator analyses and rigorous evaluation studies concerning the EU’s ‘Growth, Jobs 
and Investment’ strategy is further needed.

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my-and-growth?view=chart

JARI KAIVO-OJA

Research director, Adjunct 
professor. PhD (Adm.Sc.), MSc 
(International Economics)

Finland Futures Research Centre, 
Turku School of Economics, 
University of Turku

Fields of research interests

European integration, policy 
analysis, foresight, innovation 
management

Address

Åkerlundinkatu 2 A,  
331000 Tampere, Finland 
Tel. +358417530244

TEEMU HAUKIOJA

Assistant professor, PhD 
(Economics)

University of Turku, Turku School 
of Economics, Pori Unit

Fields of research interests

Endogenous growth theory, 
sustainable development

Address

Pohjoisranta 11 A  
FI-28100 Pori, Finland

ARI KARPPINEN

University instructor, M.Sc. 
(Economics)

University of Tampere, Faculty of 
Management

Fields of research interests

Regional economics and 
development, globalization and 
multinational enterprises

Address

FI-33014 Tampereen yliopisto, 
Finland

About the 
authors