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The Nexus between Demographic
Dividend and COVID-19 in
Bangladesh: A Disappearing
Opportunity
Md. Tanvir Alam, Sabrina Afrin Tonny2
1 Department of Public Administration, Stamford University Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
2 Research Assistant, Liberation War Museum, Dhaka, Bangladesh
E-mail: babu.taanvir@gmail.com, sabrinatonny09@gmail.com
Received: 25/09/2021
Accepted for publication: 26/01/2022
Published: 15/04/2022
Abstract
In common parlance demographic dividend means the economic growth caused by changes in the age structure of population
of a country. Bangladesh entered the phase of demographic dividend in early 2007, considering the average timeline of this
important phase which is 20-30 years; Bangladesh is currently passing the midway point of it. Amid this situation, sudden
initiatives such as lockdown, closure of educational institutions, changes in the recruitment process, delayed employee
selection process and declining trend of job posting caused by COVID-19 has created serious tension among the potential
employee sector. The objective of this study is to find out the adverse impact of COVID-19 on demographic dividend,
especially on the potential employee sector consists of tertiary level final year students, fresh graduates and job seekers. In
doing so primary source of data is used; the data was collected using qualitative method followed by a semi-structured
questionnaire. This is a cross-sectional study, for the data collection, non-probability convenience along with self-selection
sampling technique is used due limited mobility induced by COVID-19 lockdown. After collecting, the data are analyzed
using IBM SPSS software. The findings of this study revealed the adverse impact of COVID-19 on demographic dividend is
taking place through potential employee sector.
Keywords: Demographic dividend; COVID-19; Employment; Job market; Potential employee sector.
1. Introduction
Since the COVID-19 induced closure of educational institutions, the tendency of suicide have multifolded in Bangladesh, a
study identified lockdown, shutting down economic activities and social distancing as reason behind prevalent mental
problem (Islam et al., 2020). A renowned daily news paper reported that “Covid triggered a rise in suicide ideation, with 10
students allegedly ending their own lives” (“Depression, Anxiety behind Rise in Suicide of DU Students,” 2021), these
students are from the Dhaka University which is the most reputed university of the country and the news is from just one
daily, let alone student from countryside normal educational institutions and numerous local news paper. The authors argue
that this is not just an isolated incident of mental case, rather a serious loss of potential human capital which threatens the
demographic dividend. This is a serious problem due to the large number of student enrolled in tertiary level education as
estimated by University Grant commission (Mannan, 2017) and since Bangladesh's unemployment rate climbed to 5.30
percent in 2020, up from 4.20 percent in 2019 (Unemployment, Total (% of Total Labor Force) (Modeled ILO Estimate) -
Bangladesh | Data, 2019), pertaining to their age group, which falls under the demographic dividend age division, this issue
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posses a formidable threat for the nations entire demographic dividend. The objective of this study is to find out the adverse
impact of COVID-19 on demographic dividend, by classifying the entire potential employee sector into three sections;
tertiary level final year students, fresh graduates and job seekers. The study initially introduces the importance of the issue by
stating the problem followed by the research objective, and then it moved to literature review section, thirdly the
methodology section is described to ensure validity and reliability of the study. After that in the analysis section graphical
illustrations is used for reader’s convenience, finally the findings are revealed prior to move to discussion part followed b y
the conclusions.
2. Literature Review
2.1 Demographic dividend and COVID-19 in Bangladesh
Demographic dividend is a life time window of opportunity for any country, especially for country like
Bangladesh which is graduating from the category of Least Developed Country (LDC ), while coronavirus
disease-19 or more popularly known as COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome which succeeded at
stopping the whole world from every dimensions range from social, economic to cultural and even political, and
Bangladesh is not exception to that.
The siginfiaicne of demograpic divididend is unprecednted, as suggested by Urmanavicius, the demogrpahic
dividend can even cause changes in the structure of the society as the demographic factors are associated with
skill composition (2021) Bangladeshis is currently going through both demographic dividend and COVID-19. The
demographic dividend is the difference between the number of working-age people between the ages of 15 and 64
and the number of non-working-age people between the ages of 14 and 65. It is a demographic dividend if the
number of working individuals is larger than the number of non-working individuals. A country's demographic
dividend era lasts no more than 20-30 years, in other words, by 2040, Bangladesh's ability to generate rapid
economic development by using the demographic dividend would begin to diminish (Chowdhury, 2020).
Demographic dividend comes with many advantages, but the proper utilization is only possible when the active
functional youth engagement is ensured. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious illness caused by
the coronavirus 2 that causes severe acute respiratory illness. In December of this year, the first known case was
discovered in Wuhan, China (Page et al., 2021). Since then, the disease has spread worldwide, resulting in a
pandemic. through spillover infection, the virus is considered to be natural and of animal origin. There are
numerous ideas as to where the initial case (also known as patient zero) came from. The impact of COVID-19
caused serious distress around the world, and Bangladesh is no exception, on the contrary comparing other
countries Bangladesh is facing greater risk because of COVID-91 as Bangladesh is yet to be a developing country
and currently passing through the period of demographic dividend
2.2 COVID-19 and Student
The impact of COVID-19 has serious ramification all over the country, especially for student. Students as are
passing through their tenure of learning, amid this situation their overall curriculum system turned upside down
overnight, which subsequently affected their pathway for graduation. A study by Rahman et al (2021) on COVID-
19 responses among university students of Bangladesh shows that the majority of the students that took part in the
study had a significant impact (61.48 percent). Due to the epidemic, they were also extremely concerned about
their mental health (47.84 percent). Online classes have become the only alternative option. Students in Dhaka,
the capital city, reported more dangerous present locations than students outside of Dhaka. While online class has
been a viable option for only private university, public university and the students of public university is suffering
from long term discontinuity from their academic study, Begum et al (2020) in their study by covering a massive
sample around eleven hundreds student find out some major barriers to students, which ranged from self bearing
online learning cost to part time job through nearby COVID-19 patient, income reduction, financial problem
associated with lost job, overpriced internet access etcetera, these problems manifested into physiological
challenges and threatens the continuity of the study of students, the article concludes by recommending to
provide financial subsidy to disadvantages students, another study supports the previous claim by focusing on
socio-psychological impact of COVID-19 on student, the study identified numerous psychological concerns
among university students and suggested to build awareness for the mental health of students (Far Abid Hossain
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et al., 2021). A prominent study by (Faisal et al., 2021) reveled that Anxiety, depressive symptoms, and mental
health status are common sympton among university students in Bangladesh during t his lockdown period. In
total, 40% of the subjects experienced moderate to severe anxiety, 72% experienced depressive symptoms, and
53% had a moderate to poor mental health condition. There is no denying that such harsh condition can be
overburden for any students to complete their academic journey and be prepared to enter the job market, many
student have faced delayed graduation due to COVID-19 ((Maimuna, 2020)) and facing an uncertain future.
2.3 COVID-19 and Fresh Graduate
Besides running students, who are yet to complete their education, fresh graduate also suffers from COVID-19
induced challenges. These fresh graduates were about to enter the job market and start their cornerstone for their
career, unfortunately as lockdown and associated closing initiatives were introduced by respective authority they
couldn’t enter the desired job market. Earlier studies from Khan (2020) shows that many organizations delimit
their working personnel restrict their operations, shut down their projects to survive in the market, resulting less
opening for fresh graduate to enter the job market thus proving the adverse impact of COVID-19 on fresh
graduate. Another study by Shahriar et al (2021, p 1) supports the previous argument by stating that “the rate of
graduate unemployment increased from 47% to 58% in 2020 with an expected annual loss estimated at $53
million”. The opening entrance in job market is hampered by COVID-19 induced challenges does not remains in
the boundary of private sector, even oublic secotr is greatly under influence, for example the 43rd Bangladesh
Civil Service Examination’s Viva has been postponed for indefinite period (“42nd BCS Viva Postponed
Indefinitely,” 2021) . The actual scenario remains as volatile and fragile as ever in Bangladesh, while more
students are entering job market without any experience even without the experience of an internship, as reported
in news paper column , “With the Covid-19 pandemic and predicted economic recession, youths are warned that
their career path and work-life settlement will not come easy” (Maimuna, 2021).
2.4 COVID-19 and Job Seekers
In addition to the tertiary level student and fresh graduate, an third group emerged as job seekers with the
advent of COVID-19 period, who once was employed. It all began when to tackle to infection government of
Bangladesh took preventive measures including lockdown, as a result most of the business and organization were
shut down, and the employed person used their savings to live in one of the most expensive city of the world
(“Dhaka One of the Most Expensive Cities in the World,” 2020). As the situation remained unchanged for longer
period of time, eventually many employed person went unemployed and lost their job, according to a World Bank
report, around 68 percent of those who were forced to cease working due to the epidemic in Dhaka and
Chattogram have lost their jobs (Byron, 2020). Another study by world bank portrayed “provides early insights
into the labor market impacts of the ongoing Coronavirus 2019 crisis in Bangladesh. The findings point to
substantial uncertainty about job prospects for many people” (Genoni, et al, 2020). Besides these one of the most
revenue earning sector of Bangladesh which is Ready-made garments sector (RMG) also suffered from COVID-
19 challenges, resulting less productivity, emotional health, fewer job posting and even loss of employment
(Kabir et al., 2020). Another study by Hossain (2021) initially revealed that many people have experienced
declining income and lost job due to COVID-19, followed by the limitation of unfavorable economic policy, and
finally suggested to adopt employment-oriented economic policies. Besides individual research, institutional study
from organizations likes Asian Development Bank by Hayashi & Matsuda (2020) provided key insight of
COVID-19 impact on Job portal, stating that Since the COVID-19 outbreak, job listings on the main online job
matching sites in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have decreased significantly. All industries saw a large drop in new
job ads including Bangladesh’s textile sector, portrayed by another study, the link between employment and
demogrphaic factors is high (Urmanaviciene & Arachchi, 2020)
The above discussion shows that both COVID-19 and government response to tackle the infection rate created
an unfavorable situation for potential employee sector which comprised of tertiary level students, fresh graduate
and job seeker; which in ultimately threatens the demographic dividend of Bangladesh, despite of the significance
of the issue no study has been done to explore the adverse impact of COVID-19 on demographic dividend.
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3.0 Methodology
The study is about the demographic dividend of Bangladesh which is experiencing adverse impact by COVID-
19. As the study deals with sensitive issue the methodology of this study is carefully formatted. The objective of
this study is to find out the adverse impact of COVID-19 on demographic dividend, especially on the potential
employee sector consists of three groups namely; tertiary level final year students, fresh graduates and job
seekers. In doing so primary sources of data is used; the data will be collected using qualitative method followed
by a semi-structured questionnaire, the questionnaire is delivered by mail-survey questionnaire and Google form.
This will be a cross-sectional study, so for the data collection, non-probability convenience along with self-
selection sampling technique will be used due limited mobility induced by COVID-19 lockdown. The population
of potential employees sector is huge as the population of entire city is around 18.2 million (Swapan et al., 2017),
among them 4.81 percent people are unemployed (DataLEADS, 2017), which makes around 0.9 million people
jobless, among them majority are students, fresh graduate and job seekers, and to maintain the consistency
respondents from only social science background were suggested to participate, as subjects like Pharmacy and
C.S.E have different modalities for academic activates like Lab class, field study etcetera. A total of 150
respondents have be taken as sample, where each groups will have 50 respondents. After collecting, the data is
analyzed using IBM SPSS software and the results will be demonstrated using graphical illustration like figure,
chart, bar etcetera.
Data type Data collection method Sampling style Data source
Primary Qualitative
Convenience
&
self-selection
Final year student (50),
Fresh Graduate (50),
Job seeker (50)
4.0 Analysis
The analysis part can be organized under three broader categories, analysis of student, and analysis of fresh
graduate and analysis of Job seekers
4.1 Analysis of data from final year university students
The collected data from final year university students were analyzed using IBM SPSS software, and then
illustrated in figures, bar, pie chart etc. the analysis is given below following.
First the degree of depression of the respondent (final year students) is measured using Zung Depression scale,
which is a popular public domain scale and free to use as self rating depression scale. n=50.
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Figure 1: Figure 1 shows that among the 50 respondents, 5 respondents shows normal symptoms hence scoring
below 44 in Zung Depression scale, while 8 students shows symptoms of mild depression, the degree of
depression reach on the highest scale by 20 students who experience moderate depressions, and 17 students scored
70+ thus being severely depressed. 38 among 50 students who are suffering types of depressions, says they are
losing interest to study.
Secondly, the degree of knowledge of the respondent (final year students) is measured using Staple scale, where
n=50. The rationale of using staple scale is that as staple scale does not support neutral value it is appropriate to
measure the degree of knowledge of the students because being a student there is no point of neutrality in terms of
gaining knowledge.
Figure 2: Figure 2 shows the degree of learning of the final year students using staple scale. the graph shows that
among the respondents 13 students think that the degree of learning is worse, while 18 students think it is bad, on
the contrary 12 students think that the degree of learning is moderate and 07 students thinks it is good. The total
Score 20-44
(Normal)
Score 45-59
(Mildly
Depressed)
Score 60-69
(Moderately
Depressed)
Score 70+
(Seveerly
Depressed)
Depression Scale Among
Stduents
5 8 20 17
0
5
10
15
20
25
Degree of Depression Among Students
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Degree of learning
Degree of learning
Worse 13
Bad 18
Moderate 12
Good 7
Degree of Learning
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number of students who think the degree of learning is on negative is 33. Among the 50 students, 38 students
believe that the knowledge they are receiving through online classes is inadequate to enter the job market.
Finally for the issue of delayed graduation of students is addressed, the respondents (n=50) reflected their
perception towards the reason for delayed graduation and associated impact of it.
Figure 3: Figure 3 shows the reason behind delayed graduation of students induced by COVID-19. The most
prevalent reason identified by the majority of student (18) is the closure of educational institutions, followed by
the second biggest reason financial problem of family induced by COVID-19 which is identified by 15 students.
The third biggest reason behind delayed graduation is identified by 13 students as the tuition fee problem, and
only 4 students identified several other reasons including lack of study environment, absence of teachers company
etcetera.. 42 out of 50 students think that they will not be able to complete their study if the situation remains
unchanged, thus they will be fall below the margin of human capital without education.
4.2 Analysis of data from Fresh Graduate
First the degree of depression of the respondent (fresh graduate) is measured using Zung Depression scale, which
is a popular public domain scale and free to use as self rating depression scale, where the n=50.
Figure 4: Figure 4 shows that among the 50 respondents, 7 respondents shows normal symptoms hence scoring
below 44 in Zung Depression scale, and 7 fresh graduate shows symptoms of mild depression, the degree of
depression reach on the moderate scale by 16 students who experience moderate depressions, and 20 students
36%
30%
26%
8%
Reason Behind Delayed Graduation
Closure of Educational Institutions
Financial Problem of Family
Tuition fee
Other
Score 20-44
(Normal)
Score 45-59
(Mildly
Depressed)
Score 60-69
(Moderately
Depressed)
Score 70+
(Seveerly
Depressed)
Depression Scale Among Fresh
Graduate
7 7 16 20
0
5
10
15
20
25
Degree of Depression Among Fresh Graduate
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scored 70+ thus being severely depressed. 32 among 50 fresh graduates who are suffering types of depressions,
says they are losing hope for bright career.
And for analysis of the major problems to enter the job market faced by fresh graduate which induced by COVID-
19, is given below, where n=50
Figure 5: Figure 5 shows that, among the problems induced by COVD-19 to enter the job market three problems
are most prevalent. Among the respondents, 22 fresh graduates hold the absence of internship experience as a
major challenge to enter the job market, the second major problem identified by 13 fresh gradates is the changed
hiring policy of organization induced by COVID-19 which discourage to recruit fresh graduate, finally 9
students experienced the responsibility to look after COVID-19 relative fallen onto their shoulder. While only 6
students mentioned about other problems like low job posting, delayed recruitment process etcetera.
4.3 Analysis of data from Job seekers
As mentioned earlier, Job seekers mean the individual respondents who have prior job experiences. .First the
degree of depression of the respondent (Job seekers) is measured using Zung Depression scale, which is a popular
public domain scale and free to use as self rating depression scale, where the n=50.
Absence of
Internship
experience
44%
Hiring policy
Changed by COVID-
19
26%
COVID-19 Patient in
Family to look after
18%
Other
12%
COVID-19 Induced Problems to enter Job Market
Score 20-44
(Normal)
Score 45-59
(Mildly
Depressed)
Score 60-69
(Moderately
Depressed)
Score 70+
(Seveerly
Depressed)
Depression Scale Among Job
Seekers
2 9 17 23
0
5
10
15
20
25
Degree of Depression among Job Seekers
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Figure 6: Figure 6 shows that among the 50 respondents, only 2 respondents shows normal symptoms by scoring
below 44 in Zung Depression scale, and 9 job seekers shows symptoms of mild depression (scoring 45-59), the
degree of depression reach on the moderate scale by 17 job seekers who experience moderate depressions, and 23
respondents shows symptom of severely depressed by scoring above 70+. Among the 50 respondents, 40
respondents who are suffering moderate and severe types of depressions, says they are being compelled to lose
interest for job opportunity.
And finally for analysis of the major challenges induced by COVID-19 for Job seekers to enter the job market is
given below, where n=50
Figure 7: Figure 7 shows that, among the challenges induced by COVD-19 to enter the job market three problems
are most prevalent. Among the respondents, 19 job seekers fears the age out for public job, 14 respondents
finding it hard for them to switch job industry, and 10 respondents find the stalled recruitment as disruptive
challenge for their career. Only 7 respondents identified challenges like maintain hygiene, long distance and
family restrictions.
4.4 Analysis of data from student, fresh graduate and Job seekers
The reflection of students, fresh graduate and Job seekers on the adverse impact of COVID-19 on demographic
divided is given below;
38%
28%
20%
14%
COVID-19 Induced Problems For Job Seekers
Age out for Government Job Switch Industry Stalled Recruitment Other
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Figure 8: The figure 8 shows the perception of entire respondents towards the impact of COVID-19 on
demographic dividend of Bangladesh. Among the 150 respondents none could identify any positive indication of
COVID-19 on demographic dividend, where 21 respondents find it neutral by claiming that the higher degree
usage of technological devices equalizes the negative impact, on the contrary 66 respondents find the impact of
COVID-19 on demographic dividend has adverse impact and 63 respondents labeled the impact as highly adverse.
5.0 Summary of main results
Drawing the key insight from each analysis sagements, it can be said that the COVID-19 and associated
initiatives are taking a toll on the potential employments sector of Bangladesh. The findings of the study are given
below;
• Serious depression is prevlenant among students, fresh graduate and Job seekers , resulting them less
active and emotionally unstable for active functionality. Among the three classes, The severe degree of
depression is more prevalent among fresh graduate comparatevely than students, and subsequently more
prevalent among job seekers than fresh graduate.
• Most of the student is affected by delayed graduation caused by COVID-19, and they are afraid that the
learning modalities or quality during COVID-19 period will not help them to complete in the job market
• Fresh graduates are suffering from experience gap as well as changed hiring policy of market and
responsibility for family member diagnosed with COVID-19; all problems are induced by COVID-19.
• Majority of job seeker are already lost their job due to first wave of COVID-19, and still struggling to get
into the market before their age runs out, in addition to that switching job industry is pretty had during
this time and stalled recruitment caused by COVID-19 added another layer of challenges for them.
6.0 Discussion
The above results indicate a serious situation forthcoming for Bangladesh. Both COVID-19 and unsophisticated
absent mined government action is responsible for such situation. The results of this study imply the uncertain
future for Bangladesh’s potential employment sector due to COVID-19, which subsequently will threaten the
demographic dividend of this country. As Bangladesh is on the midway of this life time opportunity named
demographic dividend, and the Government of Bangladesh could not took appropriate measure to secure the
42%
44%
14%
0%
0%
Perception of COVID-19 on Demographic Dividend
Highly adverse
Adverse
Neutral
Positive
Highly positive
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smooth work flow of working people, there is high possibly that this window of opportunity will disappear soon
unless required initiatives are taken.
7.0 Conclusions
The study deals with a crucial subject which is responsible for Bangladesh’s decade long success and
achievement that is demographic dividend. The aim of this study was to reveal the adverse impact of COVID-19
on Bangladesh’s demographic dividend by identifying the key affected area of potential employee sector, this
study shows how the COVID-19 created waves of challenges for this sector thus threading the flow of
demographic dividend. In spite of declaring stimulus packages to handle this issue and make a favorable
environment for the potential employee sector, budget 2021-22 proposed 15% tax on private universities(Report,
2021) which has created concern among all stakeholders and made the situation volatile and fragile than ever.
7.1 Limitation of the study
The study was done during the peak devastating hour of employment sector caused by Covid-19, hence the
sample may represent a protion of margion of error as the sample style was selfe selection, on top of that the study
was conduced only on 150 samples, leaving the majority out of equation. Finally the qualitative dala collection
method may not revel the actual scenario of the respondents.
Regardless of the limitations, considerig the toll taken by Covid-19, the study was successful and all set-out
objectives achieved. Furthermore, the following areas needs further attention;
• dynamic between population management and demogrphic divided during Covid-19 time
• Use of ICT to mitigate the impact of Covid -19 and utiliize demogrphic divided
• Siginificance of stress or depression management into public health concern
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DOI: 10.13135/2704-9906/6063 Published by University of Turin http://www.ojs.unito.it/index.php/ejsice/index
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