untitled Populating Finland JOHN WESTERHOLM Westerholm, John (2002). Populating Finland. Fennia 180: 1–2, pp. 123–140. Helsinki. ISSN 0015-0010. The demographic structures and settlement patterns of Finland have evolved during the past 10,000 years. During this time the population has grown to its present size of almost 5.2 million through phases of fast and slow increase, and occasional periods of decrease. Changes in the settlement pattern have accompanied the population growth. From the twelfth to the middle of the twentieth century, the general trend was a continuous dispersion of settlement from the southern core areas. The most sig- nificant twentieth-century redistributions of the population happened in con- nection with the resettling of over 400,000 refugees after World War II, and the Great Move in the 1960s and 1970s from rural to urban areas and to Sweden. Finland remained a predominantly rural country until the 1960s. Structural changes within primary production and an increasingly international economy set into motion a regional concentration of the population. Today over 80 per- cent of the population lives in densely built areas covering only 2.2 percent of the land area. The population’s age structure and the current level of natural reproduction will lead to a fast population decrease beginning in the 2020s. The work force will decrease from 2010 onward. These demographic problems will damage the future economy and competitiveness of Finland, unless immigration is encour- aged and actively supported. John Westerholm, Department of Geography, P. O. Box 64, FIN-00014 Uni- versity of Helsinki, Finland. E-mail: john.westerholm@helsinki.fi Introduction The aim of this article is to give a general over- view and cartographic presentation of the popu- lation and settlement developments in Finland. Finland is a very suitable subject for such a pres- entation, as already in the middle of the sixteenth century, when Finland had been a part of the Kingdom of Sweden for almost 300 years, the Swedish Crown initiated a detailed settlement sur- vey. This was motivated by a need to map the kingdom’s resources in the context of internation- al competition and armed conflicts. These first surveys contain highly detailed and comprehen- sive information about individual villages and farmsteads, allowing the drawing of accurate set- tlement maps of what today’s Finland looked like in the 1540s and 1560s (Jutikkala 1949: 14–17, Atlas of… 1973). A systematic gathering of population statistics began in Sweden in 1736, but as early as in 1721 the clergy was obliged to send information con- cerning births and deaths in their parishes to the central government (Koskinen et al. 1994: 15). The Statistical Office in Finland was founded in 1865 and began to publish separate demographic data regularly. It is therefore possible to trace Finland’s demographic development and settlement history through several centuries and to identify events and circumstances that have influenced this process. In this article, an overview of the background and growth of the population of Finland is pre- sented. Secondly, certain important events, peri- ods and patterns concerning the settlement devel- opment are discussed. Finally, some main char- acteristics of the present population structure and settlement patterns are analysed against the back- ground of future scenarios. 124 FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002)John Westerholm Origins and growth of population Artefacts found in the 1990s – pebble tools, scarred flakes, etc. – in the cave Susiluoto in southernmost Ostrobothnia, bear witness to a ho- minid presence in Finland over 100,000 years ago, during the interglacial period preceding the last Ice Age. The Weichselian Ice Sheet, however, ended this Palaeolithic settlement. Modern man entered the scene that today is the state territory of Finland soon after the withdrawal of the ice sheet and in step with the revelation of dry land from the sea as a result of the isostatic land uplift (see Maaranen 2002; Tikkanen & Oksanen 2002). Climate variations during the Holocene have also played a role in the colonisation and spread of settlement in Finland (Nunez 1999; Solantie 1988, 1992). As late as in the twentieth century, the common view among researchers in Finland was that Fin- no-Ugric settlers started to arrive in Finland about 2,000 years ago. The ancestors of these colonis- ers had left their original settlement area along the shores of the Volga River some 3,000 years earli- er and ended up in Estonia, Finland, and Hunga- ry (Rikkinen et al. 1999). The proposed original settlement area in Russia is, true enough, still to- day inhabited by ethnic groups speaking Finno- Ugric languages (cf. Suihkonen 2002: Fig. 1). Ac- cording to this Hackman paradigm, Finland had lost its earlier population because of – among oth- er things – declining climatic conditions during the Subatlantic period (2,500–0 B.C.) (Pitkänen 1994: 19; Edgren 1999: 311). The land thus lay open for new colonisers who, according to this line of thought, began to cross the Gulf of Fin- land from Estonia during the first century A.D. The contemporary view is that Finland was col- onised through a gradual influx of settler groups coming from different directions, and that the ge- netic history of the present population can possi- bly be traced all the way back to the initial hunt- er-gatherers who arrived over 9,000 years ago. The ethnic origin of these first settlers remains un- known, but they were probably not of Finno-Ug- ric extraction (Jutikkala 1987: 352). After that, ge- netic and cultural material was added as new groups arrived from the south, west, and east. Fin- no-Ugric dominance resulted when significant numbers of speakers from such language groups began to arrive from the east, probably during the fourth millennium B.C., assimilating the original population of unknown ethnic background (Pitkänen 1994: 20). Recent studies show that 75 percent of the genetic composition of the Finns consists of a western heritage and only 25 per- cent of an eastern component (Vilkuna 1999). One could therefore say that the main Finno-Ug- ric element of today’s Finland is Finnish, the ma- jority language. Although heavily borrowing words and concepts from Indo-European neigh- bours, the language survived the assimilation of other ethnic groups, while the genetic structure of the original Finno-Ugric population was grad- ually “westernised” through this process. Archae- ological evidence also speaks for closer pre-his- toric contacts with western Indo-European cul- tures than with eastern Finno-Ugric ones. The present view is thus that the “main ancestral home” of the Finns is to be found in Central Eu- rope, complemented by several other “minor homes.” When discussing the colonisation of Finland and its cultural and genetic impacts, one should always remember that the size of the population inhabiting the territory of contemporary Finland has always been very modest. It is estimated that the population of Finland at the end of the Stone Age (second millennium B.C.) was 5,000–10,000 persons. By the time of the first crusade to Fin- land, in the 1150s, the population had grown to 20,000–40,000 persons (Pitkänen 1994: 48). When the first taxation-motivated survey was con- ducted in the mid-sixteenth century, the popula- tion was almost 300,000 persons. Two hundred years later the number exceeded 420,000 (STV 1998: 49). Figure 1 presents the population development and the growth rate from 1750 to 2000. The growth is fairly steady when analysed on the ba- sis of ten-year intervals, while the growth rate var- ies quite significantly. One-year intervals would show markedly stronger variations in both abso- lute and relative population growth, including negative growth with a varying frequency throughout the period in question. The variations in the growth rate curve and the gradient of the absolute growth curve indicate that epidemics, famines, wars, and periods of large-scale emigra- tion took their toll and hindered growth on sever- al occasions. Furthermore, the influence of some changes in the national borders and administra- tive decisions, as well as a decline in both mor- tality and nativity in modern times are reflected in Figure 1. FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002) 125Populating Finland During the eighteenth century, the overall pop- ulation growth rate in Finland was high compared to most of the rest of Europe. This was due to a very high nativity, especially in the eastern parts of the country where extended families were com- mon. The high nativity, in turn, was a result of a higher marriage rate among the adult population than in many other parts of Europe, although the age of marrying was on the rise also in Finland during the eighteenth century (Jutikkala 1980: 156, Pitkänen 1994: 43). Children born out of wedlock were also a common phenomenon in the Kingdom of Sweden. Some 40 percent of the un- married women, belonging to the rural landless population in 1700–1860, had children (Jutikka- la 1980: 160). The rapid population growth dur- ing the eighteenth century was slowed down somewhat by repeated warfare between Sweden and Russia. These hostilities culminated in the war of 1808–1809, after which Finland became a part of the Russian Empire. The war of 1808–1809 doubled the mortality rate, up to six percent of the population in both 1808 and 1809, causing a negative population growth (–3%). The slow growth in 1800–1810 was further accentuated by a severe epidemic in 1803. In addition, smallpox, a common disease, endem- ic in Finland at the time, claimed an average of 2,000 lives per year in the beginning of the nine- teenth century (Pitkänen 1990). In 1812, the are- as ceded by Sweden to Russia in 1721 and 1743 were returned to Finland as the province of Vy- borg (see Jukarainen 2002: Fig. 1). The 185,000 inhabitants of this province lifted the population numbers and growth rate back to their pre-war level (Atlas öfver Finland 1899: Plate 14; STV 1998: 49). An administrative decision in 1830 to include the Greek Orthodox population in the census in- creased the population by 25,000 persons. This increase was countered by cholera epidemics in 1833 and 1836. The epidemic of 1833 was espe- Fig. 1. Absolute and relative population development in Finland in 1750–2000 (Atlas öfver Finland 1899: Plate 14; STV 2000: 50). 126 FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002)John Westerholm cially severe and caused a negative population growth that year. The next significant negative impact came in the late 1860s when consecutive crop failures, combined with an undeveloped in- frastructure and a restrictive economic policy, caused acute famine in a large part of the coun- try in 1867 and 1868. During the winter and spring of 1867–1868, the population of Finland decreased by about 100,000. Some eight percent of the population died in 1868, which was three to four times higher than the normal mortality rate. This was the last major peacetime famine in Western Europe. The impact of the civil war in 1918 on the growth rate can be detected even in an analysis based on decade intervals (Fig. 1). According to the latest findings, the war caused over 34,000 deaths in battles and as a result of executions and harsh internment after the war (see ). On top of the losses caused by the war, Finland was hit by severe flu epidemics, also called the Spanish disease, in 1918, 1919, and 1920. These flu epidemics claimed some 25,000 lives. The losses were partially compensated when the newly established Soviet Union agreed to cede the Petsamo area in the northeast and 1,500 people to Finland in the Peace Treaty of Tartu in 1920 (see Jukarainen 2002: Fig. 1). The Winter War of 1939–1940 and the Contin- uation War in 1941–1944 seriously tapped the male population of Finland. In these wars almost 71,000 Finnish soldiers died in combat and over 203,000 were wounded. The death toll comprised about nine percent of the male population aged 15–39 years in 1940 (STV 1946: 39). The heavy war losses are not clearly reflected in Figure 1, because they are compensated by the baby boom generations of 1945–1950. During that period, the annual number of newborns ex- ceeded 100,000. The size of these annual age groups was impressive. In 1946, the population of Finland was 3,865,000 persons and live births numbered 106,075 (2.7%). By 2000, the popula- tion had grown to 5,181,115 persons, but the an- nual number of newborns had been almost halved, to only 57,577 (1.1%) (STV 2001: 72). The growth rate took a marked downturn dur- ing the 1960s, when profound structural changes within primary production and the economy as a whole launched an unprecedented out-migration and depopulation in rural areas (see Häkkilä 2002; Kortelainen 2002). A significant part of these migratory flows was directed toward Swe- den. During the peak years of emigration, in 1969 and 1970, altogether 80,000 Finns crossed the Baltic to Sweden, either seeking work or accom- panying jobseekers (Häggström et al. 1990: 56) (Fig. 2). The population growth of Finland was negative during those two years because of this migration. More than 500,000 persons have left Finland for Sweden during the post-war period. About half of them have returned (Sandlund 1982: 5; Korkiasaari & Söderling 1998: 8) (Fig. 2). The emigration to Sweden had a particularly strong impact on the Swedish-speaking popula- tion of Finland, the Finland-Swedes (see Raento Fig. 2. Emigration and immigration flows between Sweden and Finland, 1950–2001 (Maahan- ja maasta- muuttaneet… 2002). FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002) 127Populating Finland & Husso 2002). One-fourth (25,000 persons) of the Finland-Swedes born in 1931–1950 had emi- grated to Sweden by 1975 (Sandlund 1984: 199). Particularly the Swedish-speaking coastland of Ostrobothnia in the west was, and still is, affect- ed by a high propensity to emigrate. This region was also in the forefront during the emigration to North America some one hundred years earlier (Herberts 1996: 12). Altogether 370,000 Finns emigrated across the Atlantic between 1860 and World War II (Korkiasaari 2002). This emigration flow peaked between 1899 and 1913 (Fig. 3), clearly affecting the population growth rates in Finland during that period (Fig. 1). Spread and patterns of settlement until 1600 Population growth or decrease always causes a redistribution of the settlement pattern. Population growth can result in a denser settlement pattern or in an expansion, if uninhabited areas remain to be colonised. A decrease can, in turn, lead to a sparser pattern or to a direct contraction, if, for instance, marginally located settlements go under for one reason or another. Also other than demo- graphic factors can trigger changes in the settle- ment pattern. Political decisions or a restructur- ing of the economy can initiate redistributions re- gardless of demographic trends. All these proc- esses of adaptation can be seen in the settlement development of Finland. Central basic structures of the contemporary settlement pattern in Finland had already evolved in the Middle Ages, although a large part of the inner and northern regions of the country still re- mained without permanent settlement at the end of that historical period (Orrman 1999: 375). The colonising of Finland and the settlement spread during and after the Middle Ages was initiated and steered by numerous circumstances. One common way to cope with a rising popu- lation pressure in economies based on agriculture is to push the agricultural frontier into less favour- able areas. Solantie (1988, 1992) presents an in- teresting study concerning the spread of settle- ment and its relation to the general climate con- ditions in Finland and climate fluctuations since 500 A.D. He uses the risks and expected frequen- cies of crop failure with field rye in connection with frosts in the vegetative season and problems during wintering. During warmer periods the population in al- ready settled areas grows and the harvest per cap- ita decreases, which builds up a population pres- sure in relation to the resources. When the cli- mate cools down, the harvest per capita decreas- es even further. This can lead to a direct popula- tion decrease in situ, through famine and disease, or to a push into agriculturally less favourable ar- eas in order to increase the total production, al- beit at the cost of a decreasing marginal product. The findings of Solantie, presented in Figure 4, illustrate the spread of settlement in Finland until the mid-sixteenth century. Solantie (1988: 9) states Fig. 3. Transatlantic emigration from Finland, 1870–1945 (Kaukosiirtolai- suus… 2002). 128 FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002)John Westerholm that the areas permanently settled already in the Merovingian period (600–800 A.D.) and Viking times (800–1050 A.D.) had a crop failure risk of less than ten percent. The largest villages were to be found in places with a risk probability below five percent. Some exceptions notwithstanding, the overall picture is that settlement based on ag- riculture gradually spread from these hearth are- as, reaching the limits shown in Figure 4 by the mid-sixteenth century. Naturally, such factors as soil conditions, im- provements in production methods, and the Crown’s settlement policies had a role to play as well. During the time span presented in Figure 4 periods of faster and slower spread occurred. Two of these periods deserve closer attention here, as their influence is still clearly present in the popu- lation and settlement structures of Finland. The arrival and impact of the Swedes The ethnic territory, consisting of a number of geo- graphically separate regions along and outside the southern and western coasts of Finland, called Swedish Finland (see Raento & Husso 2002: CD- Fig. 1), began to take shape in the twelfth centu- ry. The main inflow of settlers evidently occurred during the thirteenth century, probably with a continuation into the fourteenth century in some places. Since that time the regional entities com- prising this territory have remained surprisingly intact regarding width and borders, although the population living within these borders has under- gone major shifts in favour of Finnish-speaking Finns, especially in the south, during the last fifty years (Westerholm 1999a: 283–284). Solantie (1999: 87–89) connects the Swedish colonisation of the coastlands with a deteriorat- ing climate in Scandinavia during the first half of the twelfth century and again in the beginning of the thirteenth century. These climatic downturns would then have initiated an emigration eastward to Finland, from regions in Sweden that had be- come overpopulated during an earlier warmer pe- riod in 1080–1105. Whether the connection be- tween the climate and the Swedish colonisation was as direct as Solantie suggests is hard to deter- mine, but the fact remains that a population pres- sure had developed in the central settlement area of Svealand already during the late Viking and pa- gan eras, and that this process continued forceful- ly from the eleventh century onward. This initially led to a colonisation of marginal lands in the Mä- laren Valley. After this interest was turned toward more distant lands suitable for colonisation, for instance in the provinces of Västmanland, north- ern Uppland, and Dalarna (Meinander 1983: 241). Fig. 4. Effective temperature sum during the growing season 1931–1960 and settlement spread in Finland from the be- ginning to the middle of the sixteenth century. (1) Zone with most favourable climate and longest continuous settlement history (except some archipelago areas); (2) Zone with fa- vourable climate. Received permanent settlement in 1080– 1250; (3) Old wilderness hunting lands, colonised in 1250– 1500; (4) Oldest settlement area within the middle boreal zone, colonised in 1250–1500; (5) Area within the southern boreal zone, colonised in 1400–1540 using burnbeat rye; (6) Young wilderness hunting lands on the limit of grain cul- tivation. Hunting remained important for a long time. First colonisers in 1540–1560; (7) Area unsuitable for grain culti- vation. Mainly colonised during a warmer period beginning in the mid-eighteenth century. Sporadic colonisation in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries; and (8) Effective tem- perature sum (compiled from Helminen 1987: 9 and Solan- tie 1992: 91). FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002) 129Populating Finland The settlement expansion in the beginning of the second millennium coincided with major so- cial changes. The Kingdom of Sweden was emerg- ing from a long period of unrest and struggles be- tween competing factions aiming for power posi- tions, struggles that with a varying intensity con- tinued into the thirteenth century (Gallén 1998: 50). At the same time Christianity, in the form pro- moted by the Roman Catholic Church, was tak- ing an ever-firmer grip on society, changing both old customs and the social fabric. Agricultural production based on large holdings using farm- hands and slaves fell apart. Bondsmen families left and established their own farms. A growing number of freed slaves added to the number of potential colonisers. “Forests were cut down and cleared, a mass of new settlements, fields and grazing lands were established between the years 1000 and 1200,” writes Maja Hagerman (1996: 222; the author’s translation from Swedish). Ob- viously a part of this pioneer spirit was directed toward Finland. This settlement expansion also included the coastlands of north-western and northern Estonia (Hoppe 1993; Westerholm 2001) Certain push factors favouring emigration across the Gulf of Bothnia and the Åland Sea can thus be easily identified, but what about the pull factors? What were the circumstances that attract- ed colonisers and enabled them to settle down on the other side of the sea without running into serious conflicts with the original population? The main reason for this was that the coastal and ar- chipelago areas of Finland were more or less void of settlement and population at the time. Any Finnish settlement was very sparse and much of the coastal zone was used only seasonally, by people from settlements located further inland. The reasons for the sparse Finnish presence on the coast have been debated and several expla- nations have been suggested (Kaukiainen 1980: 45; Orrman 1999: 380). One reason for the sparseness of settlement could have been harass- ments caused by plundering seafarers sailing the water routes that ran parallel with the coast dur- ing the Viking era (Meinander 1983: 232). Some- time these plunderers even ventured along the lake and river waterways all the way into south- ern Tavastia (Häme) (Orrman 1990: 210) about one hundred kilometres north of present-day Helsinki. Southern Häme was already a central settlement area during the Iron Age and was an important fur centre in early medieval times. The existence of sparsely populated areas along the coasts most probably constituted one central pull factor. Another pull factor originated from the ongo- ing land uplift. An increasing amount of availa- ble agricultural land rising from the sea must have attracted land-hungry potential colonisers from the overcrowded central districts of Sweden. The colonisers were familiar with the light Litorina clays and silts of coastal Finland, but they could not tackle the heavy glacial clays further inland (Tikkanen & Oksanen 2002: CD-Fig. 4). The Lito- rina clays thus restricted the extent of penetration of the Swedish settlement further inland, despite the more fertile inland glacial clays (Orrman 1987: 177–188, 1999: 380). The overseas colonisers followed in the foot- steps of an expansion of a larger dimension and fundamental meaning, namely that of Christiani- ty and the Roman Catholic Church. The first cru- sade to Finland, organised by the Swedish Crown, took place in the 1150s. One purpose of this mil- itary invasion was to consolidate Christianity in south-western Finland. The Swedes undertook two additional crusades during the following centu- ry: one in the late 1230s in order pacify the Tavas- tians, who were showing signs of turning back to paganism, and another to Karelia in the late 1290s. These Swedish military operations in Finland during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries were also a part of an evolving competition for region- al hegemony in the north-eastern part of the Bal- tic. This struggle continued in the form of differ- ent alliances and constellations well into the twentieth century. In the beginning, mainly Swe- den, Denmark, Novgorod, and the German Knight Orders participated in this struggle (Koczy 1936: 15–17). From Sweden’s point of view, the Nov- gorodian military expeditions against the Tavas- tians, who in turn frequently went on forays into Novgorodian territory in Karelia, were especially troublesome (Sundberg 1999: 59). Swedish su- premacy in Finland was challenged, which called for countermeasures in the form of mili- tary interventions. These events had an immense impact on the future of Finland in many ways. By becoming a part of Sweden, Finland also became a part of the western cultural hemisphere in Europe. The sig- nificance of this for the political and juridical de- velopment of Finnish society was enormous. From the point of view of settlement, the Crown’s at- tempts to enhance the economy by broadening 130 FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002)John Westerholm the tax base and securing the eastern border of the kingdom were important (Jutikkala 1963: 97). In order to reach these goals the Crown encour- aged colonisation, both around existing settle- ments and into the “wilderness” close to the bor- der. The Crown granted tax reductions to colonis- ers and supported them when they got into con- flict with people who for centuries had seasonal- ly used the newly colonised areas for hunting, fishing, and other activities and who thus consid- ered themselves to be owners of these wilderness hunting lands (in Finnish, erämaa) (Jordan & Kaups 1989: 49; Pitkänen 1994: 31). This kind of crown-supported settlement expansion in Finland began in the fourteenth century and continued in various forms for centuries (Jutikkala 1963: 94– 99; Jokipii 1992: 5–9). Becoming a part of Sweden also exposed Fin- land to Swedish laws concerning land organisa- tion and division in the villages. These concepts date from the Middle Ages to the implementation of the first enclosure, or Great Partition, in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. These legal measures had a marked effect on the morphology and land use of the villages and hamlets and, thus, on local settlement structures, especially in the most integrated parts of Finland in the south and southwest (Helmfrid 1976: 35; Roeck Hansen 1998, 1999). Being a part of the Swedish Kingdom also guaranteed the existence of free peasants with a voice both in Parliament and local jurisdictions. The Savonian expansion Until the beginning of the fifteenth century the inner parts of Finland north of 61o30’N were more or less without permanent agricultural settlement, and even south of that line large areas were very sparsely populated. The major relatively densely populated areas during the Middle Ages were the shores of Lake Ladoga and the Karelian Isthmus (Karelians), the coasts in the south and southwest and the river valleys of Ostrobothnia (Swedes and Finns), and southern Tavastia (Häme) to the east- ern shores of Lake Päijänne (Tavastians) (Jokipii 1992: 6). In the north, though obviously further south than today, Sami families pursued a nomad- ic life of gathering, fishing, and hunting (Magga 1999: 127). During the Viking era a few Tavastian settle- ments had already been established far to the east, close to the Karelian settlement area. These east- ernmost Tavastian settlements were relatively weak and gave way to the Karelians, when they began to enlarge their settlement area westward and northward, probably with the endorsement of Novgorod. This expansion began during the eleventh century. Solantie (1988: 89) also con- nects the Karelian expansion with periods of de- teriorating climate. Jordan and Kaups (1989: 45) suggest that the lucrative fur trade was behind the expansion. The traditional settlement area around Lake Ladoga had been overtrapped and in order to continue the trade the Karelians had to acquire new lands. Be this as it may, the fact remains that during the first century of the second millennium Karelians entered lands traditionally used by Tavastians as wilderness hunting areas, and in time the Karelian culture in the new lands trans- formed into what today is recognised as Savoni- an culture. The expansion gathered pace and dur- ing the sixteenth century the frontier advanced by three hundred linear kilometres in only three quarters of a century. In time the reach of this ex- pansion became very extensive. As Jordan and Kaups (1989: 46) put it, “On Ladoga’s far shore, a pioneer culture that would touch America sprang into motion.” The Savonian expansion was steered by the routes of watercourses and the state of affairs along the often quite diffuse and conflict-prone border between the territories of Sweden and Novgorod/ Russia. For example, the settlements around Lake Oulujärvi were wiped out during the 25-year war in 1570–1595 (Rikkinen 1980: 53) (cf. CD-Fig. 1A & 1B). The expansion was a complex process based on general governmental settlement policy and personal decisions – for instance, in order to evade rising taxes one could “disappear” into the wilderness (Soininen 1961: 212). The Tavastians themselves were generally not willing to undertake the colonisation of their wil- derness hunting areas, despite support from the Swedish Crown (Jutikkala 1963: 98). The Tavas- tians were field cultivators dependent on the ex- istence of sorted fine sediments, clays, and silts. These become scarce going north and east from the traditional settlement area of the Tavastian in southern Häme (Orrman 1999: 378). The Tavas- tians also practised burnbeat techniques in decid- uous or mixed forests, a method called normal kaski (normal burnbeat), but they lacked the knowledge of how to burnbeat in coniferous for- ests growing in moraine lands. The Karelians, the ancestors of the Savonians or the Savo-Karelians, as Jordan and Kaups (1989) call them, possessed FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002) 131Populating Finland this knowledge. They had obviously adopted the huuhtakaski method from neighbours to the east (Kaukiainen 1980: 71) (for a description of the method, see Jordan & Kaups 1989: 40–43 or Aarnio 1999: 75–80). This knowledge enabled them to spread further into the taiga clearing shift- ing plots preferably in spruce forest. It has been verified that Karelians were present in the area around today’s city of Mikkeli already in the twelfth century (Orrman 1999: 378). When the colonisation in the southern parts of the Savo region was completed and the settlement became denser, a push northward was launched in the fif- teenth century (Kaukiainen 1980: 34–35). During the sixteenth century the pioneer front advanced rapidly and even reached the lake district in Cen- tral Ostrobothnia and the coastal zone of north- ern Ostrobothnia. There was also a push to the north and northeast reaching into the region of Kainuu. The immensely expansive character of the Savonian culture is shown by the fact that Finland soon grew too small for these slash-and-burn cul- tivators (Kaukiainen 1980: 37). At the end of the sixteenth century a new Savonian frontier was opened in Sweden proper when Savonians, with the blessings of the Crown, in 1580–1680 emi- grated to the “virgin” coniferous forests in central and northern Sweden (Jutikkala 1963: 99, Jordan & Kaups 1989: 44). In some parts of Finnskogen (Finnforests) in Sweden, the Savo-Karelian culture and the use of the Savo dialect of Finnish lived on into the second half of the nineteenth century (Bladh 1955: 314). From a settlement point of view the Savonian expansion has left a heavy stamp on both the landscape and culture of Finland (see Raento & Husso 2002: CD-Fig. 5). The Savonians opened up the wilderness and established a structure, al- beit a very sparse one, from which a growing pop- ulation could spring into the adjacent wilderness. The pioneer spirit, an inherent part of the Savoni- an and Karelian culture, could still be felt as late as in the 1940s, when a part of the population from the areas ceded to the Soviet Union after World War II had to be resettled in forestlands for- merly not touched by a plough. Settlement consolidation and social reforms The seventeenth and eighteenth centuries brought many hardships to Finland, mainly due to seem- ingly endless conflicts between Russia and Swe- den. Conscriptions took a considerable part of the young male population to the battlefields around Europe, from which only a lucky few returned. In the eighteenth century the Russians devastatingly occupied Finland for several years, in 1714–1721 (Great Wrath) and 1742–1743 (Little Wrath). Epi- demics and famines also took their toll. For in- stance, a severe famine accompanied by diseas- es killed a very high proportion of the population in 1695–1697, and many farmsteads were aban- doned (Jaatinen et al. 1989: 56). These farms, however, soon got new occupants, who came from a steadily growing and landless rural popu- lation. In spite of these adversities the population con- tinued to grow. The settlement pattern became denser and the agricultural frontier continued to push slowly northward, a process that continued long into the twentieth century (CD-Fig. 1A & 1B). The growing population pressure also called for several administrative decisions in order to ena- ble the rural population to sustain itself. Since 1694 some kinds of crofter farms had been established in Finland when a new military organisation, based on soldier crofts upheld by the local peasantry, was introduced. By 1740, the government’s decision to allow crofter or tenant holdings on land cleared on mires and other “wastelands” belonging to peasant farmsteads (Gylling 1909: 110) would, however, have a marked effect on the local and regional settlement development for a long period of time. Before that crofts had only been allowed on manor and oth- er land holdings belonging to the gentry. The crofter reform of 1740 resulted in a settle- ment dispersion locally and regionally, as former- ly landless families established tenant farms on marginal lands. Population pressure forced the landless population to carve out an existence in areas earlier considered to be more or less unin- habitable. For instance, in the archipelagos even some of the most remote, almost barren islands and skerries housed tenant fishers during the lat- ter half of the nineteenth century. The number of tenant farms grew rapidly, es- pecially in the southern and central Finland (Joki- pii & Rikkinen 1992: 10). In 1738, the total number of tenant farms was only 2,247 (Gylling 1909: 72). By 1805 the number of crofters had grown to 25,394 (Gylling 1909: 220), from which it grew to 67,083 in 1901 (Jutikkala 1963: 514). The last number includes holdings of a miniscule 132 FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002)John Westerholm size, as does the official number of holdings (96,167) on tenant land in 1910 (STV 1919: 221– 222). The numbers reveal, however, that the number of people not owning the land they tilled was growing fast and began to constitute a severe social problem by the end of the nineteenth cen- tury. In fact, the situation of the rural landless pop- ulation was one cause of the civil war in 1918 (see Alapuro 1988; Ylikangas 1993). The landless and deprived rural population con- stituted a problem that the government made ef- forts to solve during the 1920s and 1930s. A law passed in 1918 gave tenant farmers, or crofters, the right to buy the land (max. 20 hectares arable land) they had been cultivating. The crofters were also given the right to buy up to 20 hectares of forestland. Some 90,000 tenants used this right before 1940 (Jutikkala 1963: 462). In 1924, Lex Kallio allowed the acquisition of land for com- pletely new homesteads, even through expropri- ation. The aim was to place some of the depend- ent lodgers in the countryside on farms and hold- ings of their own. This law resulted in 13,553 new homesteads and 8,414 smaller holdings (Jutikka- la 1963: 466). Lex Kallio was continued in the settlement laws of 1936 with the aspiration to cre- ate economically sustainable farms and in that way improve the living conditions in rural areas. In 1922 a law on the settling of state-owned forestlands was passed in the Parliament. The combined result of these settlement laws was a huge number of new, small independent farms. The law granting the right to crofters to buy their land did not change the settlement pattern notably, as these holdings had already existed as tenant farms. The other laws established rural set- tlements in formerly more or less uninhabited places, making the net of rural settlement denser and wider than earlier. Re-settling refugees in the 1940s and 1950s After World War II Finland ceded a large part of Karelia and the Petsamo corridor to the Soviet Union. The Porkkala peninsula, located thirty kilo- metres west of Helsinki, was leased to the Soviet Union for fifty years, but was returned to Finland in 1956. The population of the ceded areas was evacuated across the new borders. 423,300 refu- gees, 11 percent of the total population of Fin- land at the time, had to be resettled, and Finland lost 15 percent of its cultivated area (Talman 1987: 225). Of the refugees, 55 percent were farmers and their families. Ceded Vyborg, with its 72,680 in- habitants, was the second-largest city in Finland in 1939 (STV 1941: 15). The urban refugees raised the number of inhabitants in several cities. The ru- ral refugee population was dispersed mainly throughout the southern half of the country. After the war a law on land acquisition was passed in the Parliament. According to this law, land was distributed first of all to the refugees and front soldiers. The right to receive land also in- cluded war invalids and widows, war orphans, and farmhands who had lost their positions as a consequence of the war. The main part of the land area used for this purpose, 73 percent, was either state-owned or owned by other public or private organisations, such as municipalities, parishes, and foundations. Twenty-one percent was taken from independent farmers, mostly from farmsteads with more than 25 hectares of arable land (Palo- mäki 1960: 150). In northern Finland state-owned forests were set aside for the establishment of cold farms, that is, farms cleared in areas where fields did not exist prior to the post-war settlers’ arrival (Talman 1987: 226; Häkkilä 2002). Altogether some 16,000 cold farms were cleared in Finland during the 1940s and 1950s. Different types of holdings were the result of the land acquisition act. Not all farms were in- tended to be self-supporting. On some farms it was intended that the farmer could support his family by working part-time or seasonally outside the farm (cf. Kortelainen 2002). Altogether 128,434 self-supporting and 15,865 non-self-sup- porting farmsteads were established before the end of the 1950s. Over 2.6 million hectares of land changed owner, including land given for non-agricultural purposes (for instance, to veter- an housing in the outskirts of urban settlements) (Palomäki 1960: 151). One common feature of the laws between 1918 and 1944 favouring the crea- tion of new independent farmsteads was that they, for the most part, generated farms too small to survive future challenges. The average size of a former crofter farm was only 4.8 hectares of ara- ble land (Jutikkala 1963: 462), while a self-sup- porting farm established after World War II had an average size of 53.8 hectares (including forest areas). The non-self-supporting farms averaged 20.9 hectares (Rikkinen 1992: 16). The numerous new farms of the twentieth cen- tury filled still-existing gaps in the net of rural set- FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002) 133Populating Finland tlement. At the same time a ticking demographic time bomb was set in the countryside. The deto- nation of this bomb would change Finland dra- matically during the latter half of the twentieth century. Contraction and concentration – settlement change from the 1960s onward Freedom of trade, granted in 1879, made possi- ble the emergence of new small-sized trade and manufacturing centres around the country. Grad- ually public service functions dispersed to the ru- ral municipalities. The supporting activities need- ed by a mechanising agricultural production at- tracted private services and enterprise to the cen- tral nodes of municipalities, which in many plac- es began to grow from the 1920s onward. Cen- tres also evolved around larger sawmills and oth- er manufacturing activities using local resources. Traffic communities sprang up at intersections in the expanding railway and highway networks. Through the development of communications and an economy dominated by various service func- tions, a settlement pattern based on functional regions surrounding larger population centres slowly evolved. This functionally based regional structure with an uneven population distribution gradually substituted the historical structure formed by a relatively evenly dispersed rural set- tlement. This process can clearly be seen in the map series of Schulman (1999: 135) (CD-Fig. 2). The initial phases of the urbanisation process in Finland were slow. The urban population sur- passed the rural population in numbers as late as in 1960 in Finland, while in Sweden the urban population already outnumbered the rural inhab- itants in the early 1930s. The workforce employed within manufacturing did not surpass the agricul- tural workforce in Finland until 1967 (Hustich 1977: 215). From the 1960s onward the pace of urbanisa- tion in Finland has, however, been among the fastest in the western industrialised world. Today over 80 percent of the population in Finland dwells in densely built areas. Even in Lapland the share of the urban population exceeds 70 percent. Several articles in this special issue of Fennia touch upon the economic and social restructur- ing that began in Finland in the 1950s and initi- ated what has come to be called the Great Move (Antikainen & Vartiainen 2002; Häkkilä 2002; Kortelainen 2002; Tykkyläinen 2002). In the 1960s, several economic and social trends coin- cided and resulted in an accelerated concentra- tion of population on all regional levels. The mechanisation of forestry and farming led to a di- minishing demand for labour in the countryside at the same time as the baby boom generations reached adulthood, increasing the supply of la- bour. Employment opportunities in the home re- gion were almost nonexistent, so a substantial number of the baby boomers moved away to find work elsewhere. Manufacturing in Finland was unable to employ all these migrants. The emigra- tion to Sweden thus grew significantly. These mi- gration flows depopulated the countryside, but did not initially change the basic structure of the settlement pattern, as the farms were largely still active and inhabited. Fairly soon, however, the small farms established during the twentieth cen- tury proved economically unviable and many were abandoned. The abandonment was also partly a result of the aging of the initial settlers, many of whom relocated to municipal centres closer to services. In 1959, the number of farms with at least two hectares of arable land was 284,778 (STV 1968: 86). In 1979, this number was 208,080 (STV 1983: 83). This downward trend has continued and in 2000 the number of active farms meeting this criterion was only 78,434 (STV 2001: 101; cf. Häkkilä 2002). This development has had a remarkable “thinning ef- fect” on the rural settlement pattern. Living close to one another in a vast space The average population density in Finland is 17.1 persons per square kilometre if only the land area (304,473 km2) is taken into account. However, only 105,000 square kilometres are inhabited (Kauppinen et al. 1997: 8). The average density is thus 49 persons per inhabited square kilometre. Furthermore, considering that 82.3 percent of the population lives in densely built areas covering only 2.2 percent of the total land area and with an average population density of 626 persons per square kilometre, one can say that the population distribution of contemporary Finland is highly concentrated (STV 2001: 117). This population concentration is nothing new. Since the Middle Ages the population of Finland has been concentrated in the south and southwest and the coastal zone along the Gulf of Bothnia. 134 FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002)John Westerholm The historical phases described above evened out the general pattern, but the population centre of gravity always remained in the south. Even dur- ing government efforts to establish new farm- steads, the area covering one half of the popula- tion kept on shrinking due to domestic migration (Fig. 5 & CD-Fig. 3). This development has strongly favoured Helsin- ki and its surroundings, up to a commuting dis- tance of about 70 kilometres. In 1950, the imme- diate Capital Region, consisting of the current cit- ies of Espoo, Helsinki, Kauniainen, and Vantaa, harboured about ten percent of the total popula- tion. This share was 18.5 percent in 2000 (STV 2001: 35). The fast development within informa- tion technology and the increasing importance of foreign trade and external relations after Finland joined the European Union in 1995, have again accelerated domestic migration. A substantial share of these flows is directed toward the Capi- tal Region, but also toward other university cities or urban districts, such as Oulu, Jyväskylä, and Tampere. The concentration of the population thus continues. This time the flows consist largely of well-educated persons in contrast to the Great Move period. The know-how needed in an inter- nationally integrated, high-tech economy thus keeps concentrating regionally (Havén 2002: 7; see Antikainen & Vartiainen 2002; Husso & Raen- to 2002: CD-Fig. 2; Mikkonen 2002), a fact that most certainly will affect future population and settlement structures. Fig. 5. Contraction of the south-western part of Finland covering 50 percent of the population from 1880 to 1995 (A) and the area of northern and eastern Finland (shaded) with a population equalling the population of the immediate Capital Region (955,748 inhabitants) in 2000 (B) (Hustich 1977: 215; Westerholm 1999b: 91; STV 2001: 78–99). For more, see CD-Figure 3. FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002) 135Populating Finland An uncertain future Prognoses The population potential and demographic devel- opment of Finland has been discussed by aca- demics for more than a century. Zachris Topelius (1818–1898), professor of history at the Universi- ty of Helsinki and one of the great literary icons in Finland, suggested that Finland could feed a population of 16 million, of which 14.4 million would find their livelihood within the primary sec- tor. Johan Evert Rosberg (1864–1932), the first professor of geography in Finland, estimated that the potential field area of Finland could sustain between 8 and 9 million people. Taking into ac- count all the other sectors of production, Rosberg concluded that Finland could maintain close to 15 million people in a perspective of two to three hundred years (Hustich 1959: 10). Both of these calculations were based on the assumption that Finland would be unable to compete in the world market of manufactured products with already industrialised larger countries. The population development in Finland would therefore contin- ue to depend on agriculture’s capacity to employ and feed. This opinion concerning Finland’s ina- bility to industrialise in any foreseeable future was deeply rooted. Even as late as in the beginning of the 1930s, a committee appointed by the govern- ment recommended a continuation of the colo- nising activities with a reference to Finland’s weak ability to employ people within manufacturing (Jutikkala 1963: 466). History has proved this opinion wrong. Finland industrialised her econo- my rapidly after World War II and soon a consid- erable part of the population was engaged within manufacturing. In spite of this and the rise of the service sector as an employer, the present esti- mates of Finland’s future population are much gloomier than those presented by Topelius and Rosberg. The sun will set on the last Finn in year 3702 according to Statistics Finland (Karlsson 1992: 46). This prediction is based on decreasing fertili- ty rates and a continuously aging population (Fig. 6). When Finland became independent in 1917 the mean age of the population was 28 years. To- day it is 43 years. The general fertility rate [live births per thousand women in childbearing age (age 15–49 years) per year] was 46.6 in 2000. In 1950, it was 92.9 and in 1990, 52.1 (STV 2001: 139). The average number of children born to a Finnish woman during her lifetime is now down to 1.7, which is fairly high in a European com- parison (STV 2001: 588). The nativity in Finland still does not, however, guarantee even a population of the present size in the long run, especially since the average age of women having their first child (today 28 years) continues to rise. This will lead to diminishing numbers of children in the future. Today the an- nual number of live births still exceeds the number of deaths by about 7,500. This is due to a low mortality rate and a rising average life span among both sexes. The situation will most certain- ly start to change in a not too distant future, when the baby boom generations grow old. In 2000, men born in 1945–1950 had a life expectancy of 23.2–27.3 years while the number of remaining years for women in this age group was between 28.1 and 32.7. According to Statistics Finland (SVT 2001: 9), the number of deaths will conse- quently exceed the number of childbirths by 715 in 2024 and the gap will widen rapidly after that – to 8,158 in 2030. The population growth will turn negative in 2027, resulting in a population of no more than 5,290,563 persons in 2030, which is only about 100,000 more than today. According to this prognosis the population of Fin- land will reach its maximum in 2025 when the number of inhabitants is estimated to be 5,318,236. A prognosis made by Kela (The Social Insurance Institution of Finland) in 1993 states that the pop- ulation size will begin to decrease in the 2020s and will be only 4,988,108 in 2030. This trend will continue and, according to this prognosis, Finland will have a population of only 4.5 mil- lion inhabitants in 2050 (Väestöennuste… 1993: 7). These diverging numbers show how difficult it is to make population prognoses. The prog- noses made by Statistics Finland during the last thirty years have usually proved to be too pessi- mistic (SVT 2001: 13–14). The main reason for this has been the difficulty in estimating future migration flows between Finland and the rest of the world. Population and settlement structures in the periphery In step with growing foreign trade, Finns have be- come increasingly dependent on foreign resourc- es. Imports of raw materials and foodstuff are to- day a necessity if current living standards are to 136 FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002)John Westerholm be maintained. The population size and distribu- tion of Finland must thus be evaluated in an in- ternational context, where national boundaries play only a secondary role. Never before has the economy of Finland been as integrated interna- tionally as it is today. This fact links the popula- tion development and the settlement patterns of the country to the population development and distribution in Europe, which in turn is regionally organised around the demographic core in north- western Central Europe. Southern Finland is located some two thousand kilometres away from the demographic, econom- ic, and administrative core of Europe. In spite of its peripheral location Finland has a well-educat- ed population with a high vocational proficien- cy. When Finland joined the EU in 1995, a large new labour market was opened for the Finnish labour force to explore. Today Finland has to com- pete in the international labour market, even though in the near future, all things unchanged, the country will suffer from a severe shortage of labour. The share of persons over 65 years old will rise from today’s 15 percent to 26 percent by 2030. This means that there will then be 80 percent more people belonging to this age group than presently (Fig. 6). The share of people on the job Fig. 6. Population age structures in 1950, 1970, and 2000, and a prognosis for 2030 (SVT 1956: 49; 1973: 53; 2001: 20– 29). FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002) 137Populating Finland market (aged 15 to 64 years) will simultaneously decline from 67 percent to 59 percent. The work- ing population will begin to decrease in 2010 when the first baby boom generation reaches the official retirement age of 65 (SVT 2001: 10). The common practise of retiring before that will, how- ever, start to decrease the work force even earli- er. Statistics Finland predicts that the work force will be 370,000 persons smaller in 2030 than to- day’s 3.5 million persons. Urbanisation has clearly left a mark in the set- tlement structure, both regarding the regional pat- tern and the population composition. Many an agricultural village has lost its population almost completely, and small hamlets and towns, earlier serving a more populated countryside, have been losing inhabitants at a rather constant rate for many years. At the same time the remaining pop- ulation in the depopulating areas has grown old- er. The share of persons at least 64 years old is over 22 percent in many of the municipalities lo- cated in the zones demarcating functional regions of major urban centres. In Ostrobothnia and Lap- land the share drops below this mark in some municipalities because of a traditional, culturally induced (religious) high nativity (cf. Raento & Husso 2002: CD-Fig. 4). In these municipalities a pool of migrants is continuously maintained, while the absolute migrant flows from peripheral areas in other regions will eventually fade out, due to lack of potential migrants. The difficult demographic situation in a large part of the country is clearly reflected also in the gender balance distribution. Women are more active migrants than men, which has led to a sit- uation where the number of women aged 20–39 years equals the corresponding number of men in only a few municipalities, in some urban cen- tres, and adjacent rural municipalities (STV 2001: 36). The chances of population recovery through natural reproduction is thus out of the question in most parts of the country. In any given realistic scenario, the population of Finland will continue to concentrate regional- ly and the permanent settlement pattern to thin out in the peripheries. Only a major change in the operational environment, affecting consider- ably larger areas than Finland, can in reality turn the development in another direction. One has to remember, however, that there will always be a place for agriculture, albeit most certainly of an- other structure and character than today, even in the peripheral northern and eastern parts of Fin- land (Häkkilä 2002). Furthermore, the seasonal population consisting of tourists and summer- house owners, who in many areas double or tri- ple the population during the vacation seasons, will support a certain amount of permanent set- tlement and population connected to various serv- ice functions. The 456,706 summerhouses in Fin- land (Skoglund 2002: 13) make the rural land- scape seem inhabited and, in many areas, have turned this landscape from a production land- scape into a predominantly leisure landscape (see Vuoristo 2002: CD-Fig. 6). The fact that Finland still to a considerable degree relies on the wood processing industry and the metal industry as en- gines of prosperity will maintain communities and population centres outside the regionally restrict- ed national core area (cf. Kortelainen 2002: CD- Fig. 2). Centres of higher education located out- side the national core area will also help to main- tain settlement. This does not, however, solve the fundamental demographic problems that will tor- ment Finland in coming decades, if decisive measures to solve them are not taken. Future challenges The interwar governments of Finland had to deal with problems connected to an “overpopulated” countryside. The governments of today and tomor- row face two demographic problems of an acute nature. The first one concerns measures needed to keep well-educated people in the country in order to maintain the competitive edge in the world market of technological products and serv- ices. Rising numbers of well-educated emigrants were recorded in the latter half of the 1990s (Kultalahti & Karppi 1999: 170). The second prob- lem has to do with an aging population that will need more and more social and health services. This will require continuously increased employ- ment within these sectors in the future. Presently Finland suffers from an outflow of medical per- sonnel to countries like Britain, Norway, and Swe- den. This emigration is triggered by lower wages and general working conditions within this sec- tor in Finland. A solution to both problems lies in an active and partly selective immigration policy. The age structure of the country cannot be corrected, nor the future demand for labour satisfied, without increased immigration. The above-mentioned pes- simistic population prognosis of Statistics Finland assumes that the annual migration balance will 138 FENNIA 180: 1–2 (2002)John Westerholm remain unchanged, generating an annual surplus of only 5,000 persons. The immigration numbers have risen during the last decade, but the skill structure of the immigrants has failed to meet the demand structure on the labour market, causing social problems (see Raento & Husso 2002: Fig. 3, Fig. 4 & CD-Fig. 11). A more active policy could correct this and ensure stable positive pop- ulation development. Today immigrants and refugees comprise a con- siderable part of the population growth. In the fu- ture they alone will build up the growth potential of the population. Increased immigration will cer- tainly strengthen the already densely populated areas of the country, especially the Capital Re- gion, which is also the part of the country most integrated with international economic and social networks. The prognosis of Statistics Finland (SVT 2001: 32–33) is that the population of the south- ernmost regions Uusimaa and Itä-Uusimaa, even with an unchanged net migration, will grow by 223,128 persons in 2000–2030. To keep the educated work force in the coun- try and to attract skilled personnel from abroad, environments that favour entrepreneurship (in- cluding large international stock exchange com- panies) and offer high-quality living conditions must be strengthened. There are only a restricted number of localities in Finland where these con- ditions can be met, today or in the future, name- ly, the larger urban districts. These are able to of- fer competitive cultural services, housing, and communications of an international standard. To ensure this future regional politics in Finland will have to pay even more attention to the operational preconditions of urban centres and districts. The pattern of permanent settlement in present day Finland is, after centuries of dispersion, con- tracting towards a pattern familiar already from the early Middle Ages. 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