id sid tid token lemma pos fbem-11211 1 1 frontiers frontier NOUN fbem-11211 1 2 in in ADP fbem-11211 1 3 business business NOUN fbem-11211 1 4 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 1 5 economics economic NOUN fbem-11211 1 6 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 1 7 management management NOUN fbem-11211 1 8 issn issn PROPN fbem-11211 1 9 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 1 10 2766 2766 NUM fbem-11211 1 11 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 1 12 824x 824x NUM fbem-11211 1 13 | | ADJ fbem-11211 1 14 vol vol NOUN fbem-11211 1 15 . . PROPN fbem-11211 2 1 10 10 NUM fbem-11211 2 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 2 3 no no INTJ fbem-11211 2 4 . . NOUN fbem-11211 2 5 3 3 NUM fbem-11211 2 6 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 2 7 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 2 8 50 50 NUM fbem-11211 2 9 research research NOUN fbem-11211 2 10 on on ADP fbem-11211 2 11 forecasting forecast VERB fbem-11211 2 12 the the DET fbem-11211 2 13 shanghai shanghai PROPN fbem-11211 2 14 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 2 15 shenzhen shenzhen PROPN fbem-11211 2 16 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 2 17 index index NOUN fbem-11211 2 18 based base VERB fbem-11211 2 19 on on ADP fbem-11211 2 20 the the DET fbem-11211 2 21 arima‐garch arima‐garch NOUN fbem-11211 2 22 model model PROPN fbem-11211 2 23 changyong changyong PROPN fbem-11211 2 24 xie1 xie1 PROPN fbem-11211 2 25 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 2 26 a a DET fbem-11211 2 27 1college 1college NUM fbem-11211 2 28 of of ADP fbem-11211 2 29 management management NOUN fbem-11211 2 30 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 2 31 shenzhen shenzhen PROPN fbem-11211 2 32 university university PROPN fbem-11211 2 33 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 2 34 shenzhen shenzhen PROPN fbem-11211 2 35 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 2 36 518055 518055 NUM fbem-11211 2 37 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 2 38 china china PROPN fbem-11211 2 39 a2020041132@email.szu.edu.cn a2020041132@email.szu.edu.cn X fbem-11211 2 40 abstract abstract NOUN fbem-11211 2 41 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 2 42 this this DET fbem-11211 2 43 paper paper NOUN fbem-11211 2 44 aims aim VERB fbem-11211 2 45 to to PART fbem-11211 2 46 forecast forecast VERB fbem-11211 2 47 the the DET fbem-11211 2 48 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 2 49 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 2 50 of of ADP fbem-11211 2 51 the the DET fbem-11211 2 52 shanghai shanghai PROPN fbem-11211 2 53 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 2 54 shenzhen shenzhen PROPN fbem-11211 2 55 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 2 56 index index NOUN fbem-11211 2 57 using use VERB fbem-11211 2 58 time time NOUN fbem-11211 2 59 series series NOUN fbem-11211 2 60 models model NOUN fbem-11211 2 61 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 3 1 by by ADP fbem-11211 3 2 combining combine VERB fbem-11211 3 3 the the DET fbem-11211 3 4 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 3 5 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 3 6 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 3 7 models model NOUN fbem-11211 3 8 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 3 9 the the DET fbem-11211 3 10 study study NOUN fbem-11211 3 11 aims aim VERB fbem-11211 3 12 to to PART fbem-11211 3 13 improve improve VERB fbem-11211 3 14 the the DET fbem-11211 3 15 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 3 16 of of ADP fbem-11211 3 17 short short ADJ fbem-11211 3 18 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 3 19 term term NOUN fbem-11211 3 20 predictions prediction NOUN fbem-11211 3 21 for for ADP fbem-11211 3 22 the the DET fbem-11211 3 23 index index NOUN fbem-11211 3 24 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 3 25 enhance enhance VERB fbem-11211 3 26 risk risk NOUN fbem-11211 3 27 management management NOUN fbem-11211 3 28 capabilities capability NOUN fbem-11211 3 29 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 4 1 the the DET fbem-11211 4 2 research research NOUN fbem-11211 4 3 begins begin VERB fbem-11211 4 4 by by ADP fbem-11211 4 5 collecting collect VERB fbem-11211 4 6 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 4 7 preprocessing preprocesse VERB fbem-11211 4 8 historical historical ADJ fbem-11211 4 9 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 4 10 of of ADP fbem-11211 4 11 the the DET fbem-11211 4 12 shanghai shanghai PROPN fbem-11211 4 13 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 4 14 shenzhen shenzhen PROPN fbem-11211 4 15 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 4 16 index index NOUN fbem-11211 4 17 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 5 1 then then ADV fbem-11211 5 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 5 3 an an DET fbem-11211 5 4 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 5 5 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 5 6 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 5 7 model model NOUN fbem-11211 5 8 is be AUX fbem-11211 5 9 established establish VERB fbem-11211 5 10 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 5 11 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 5 12 the the DET fbem-11211 5 13 model model NOUN fbem-11211 5 14 parameters parameter NOUN fbem-11211 5 15 are be AUX fbem-11211 5 16 estimated estimate VERB fbem-11211 5 17 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 5 18 tested test VERB fbem-11211 5 19 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 6 1 finally finally ADV fbem-11211 6 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 6 3 the the DET fbem-11211 6 4 model model NOUN fbem-11211 6 5 is be AUX fbem-11211 6 6 used use VERB fbem-11211 6 7 to to PART fbem-11211 6 8 forecast forecast VERB fbem-11211 6 9 the the DET fbem-11211 6 10 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 6 11 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 6 12 of of ADP fbem-11211 6 13 the the DET fbem-11211 6 14 index index NOUN fbem-11211 6 15 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 6 16 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 6 17 the the DET fbem-11211 6 18 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 6 19 of of ADP fbem-11211 6 20 the the DET fbem-11211 6 21 predictions prediction NOUN fbem-11211 6 22 is be AUX fbem-11211 6 23 evaluated evaluate VERB fbem-11211 6 24 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 7 1 the the DET fbem-11211 7 2 results result NOUN fbem-11211 7 3 demonstrate demonstrate VERB fbem-11211 7 4 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 7 5 the the DET fbem-11211 7 6 constructed construct VERB fbem-11211 7 7 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 7 8 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 7 9 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 7 10 model model NOUN fbem-11211 7 11 can can AUX fbem-11211 7 12 provide provide VERB fbem-11211 7 13 accurate accurate ADJ fbem-11211 7 14 predictions prediction NOUN fbem-11211 7 15 for for ADP fbem-11211 7 16 the the DET fbem-11211 7 17 closing close VERB fbem-11211 7 18 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 7 19 of of ADP fbem-11211 7 20 the the DET fbem-11211 7 21 shanghai shanghai PROPN fbem-11211 7 22 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 7 23 shenzhen shenzhen PROPN fbem-11211 7 24 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 7 25 index index NOUN fbem-11211 7 26 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 8 1 this this DET fbem-11211 8 2 research research NOUN fbem-11211 8 3 is be AUX fbem-11211 8 4 expected expect VERB fbem-11211 8 5 to to PART fbem-11211 8 6 enhance enhance VERB fbem-11211 8 7 prediction prediction NOUN fbem-11211 8 8 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 8 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 8 10 improve improve VERB fbem-11211 8 11 risk risk NOUN fbem-11211 8 12 management management NOUN fbem-11211 8 13 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 8 14 increase increase VERB fbem-11211 8 15 practical practical ADJ fbem-11211 8 16 value value NOUN fbem-11211 8 17 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 8 18 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 8 19 serve serve VERB fbem-11211 8 20 as as ADP fbem-11211 8 21 a a DET fbem-11211 8 22 reference reference NOUN fbem-11211 8 23 for for ADP fbem-11211 8 24 similar similar ADJ fbem-11211 8 25 studies study NOUN fbem-11211 8 26 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 9 1 keywords keyword NOUN fbem-11211 9 2 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 9 3 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 9 4 model model NOUN fbem-11211 9 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 9 6 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 9 7 model model NOUN fbem-11211 9 8 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 9 9 shanghai shanghai PROPN fbem-11211 9 10 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 9 11 shenzhen shenzhen PROPN fbem-11211 9 12 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 9 13 index index NOUN fbem-11211 9 14 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 9 15 short short ADJ fbem-11211 9 16 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 9 17 term term NOUN fbem-11211 9 18 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 9 19 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 9 20 stationarity stationarity NOUN fbem-11211 9 21 test test NOUN fbem-11211 9 22 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 10 1 1 1 X fbem-11211 10 2 . . X fbem-11211 10 3 introduction introduction NOUN fbem-11211 10 4 accurate accurate ADJ fbem-11211 10 5 short short ADJ fbem-11211 10 6 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 10 7 term term NOUN fbem-11211 10 8 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 10 9 market market NOUN fbem-11211 10 10 predictions prediction NOUN fbem-11211 10 11 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 10 12 risk risk NOUN fbem-11211 10 13 assessment assessment NOUN fbem-11211 10 14 are be AUX fbem-11211 10 15 vital vital ADJ fbem-11211 10 16 in in ADP fbem-11211 10 17 today today NOUN fbem-11211 10 18 's 's PART fbem-11211 10 19 dynamic dynamic ADJ fbem-11211 10 20 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 10 21 landscape landscape NOUN fbem-11211 10 22 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 11 1 this this DET fbem-11211 11 2 study study NOUN fbem-11211 11 3 focuses focus VERB fbem-11211 11 4 on on ADP fbem-11211 11 5 the the DET fbem-11211 11 6 practical practical ADJ fbem-11211 11 7 application application NOUN fbem-11211 11 8 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 11 9 effectiveness effectiveness NOUN fbem-11211 11 10 of of ADP fbem-11211 11 11 the the DET fbem-11211 11 12 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 11 13 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 11 14 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 11 15 model model NOUN fbem-11211 11 16 in in ADP fbem-11211 11 17 forecasting forecast VERB fbem-11211 11 18 the the DET fbem-11211 11 19 shanghai shanghai PROPN fbem-11211 11 20 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 11 21 shenzhen shenzhen PROPN fbem-11211 11 22 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 11 23 index index NOUN fbem-11211 11 24 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 12 1 by by ADP fbem-11211 12 2 combining combine VERB fbem-11211 12 3 the the DET fbem-11211 12 4 strengths strength NOUN fbem-11211 12 5 of of ADP fbem-11211 12 6 the the DET fbem-11211 12 7 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 12 8 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 12 9 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 12 10 models model NOUN fbem-11211 12 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 12 12 this this DET fbem-11211 12 13 approach approach NOUN fbem-11211 12 14 enhances enhance VERB fbem-11211 12 15 the the DET fbem-11211 12 16 capture capture NOUN fbem-11211 12 17 of of ADP fbem-11211 12 18 market market NOUN fbem-11211 12 19 volatility volatility NOUN fbem-11211 12 20 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 12 21 nonlinear nonlinear ADJ fbem-11211 12 22 characteristics characteristic NOUN fbem-11211 12 23 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 13 1 the the DET fbem-11211 13 2 study study NOUN fbem-11211 13 3 aims aim VERB fbem-11211 13 4 to to PART fbem-11211 13 5 enrich enrich VERB fbem-11211 13 6 time time NOUN fbem-11211 13 7 series series NOUN fbem-11211 13 8 analysis analysis NOUN fbem-11211 13 9 methods method NOUN fbem-11211 13 10 in in ADP fbem-11211 13 11 finance finance NOUN fbem-11211 13 12 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 13 13 provide provide VERB fbem-11211 13 14 a a DET fbem-11211 13 15 theoretical theoretical ADJ fbem-11211 13 16 foundation foundation NOUN fbem-11211 13 17 for for ADP fbem-11211 13 18 future future ADJ fbem-11211 13 19 research research NOUN fbem-11211 13 20 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 14 1 in in ADP fbem-11211 14 2 practical practical ADJ fbem-11211 14 3 terms term NOUN fbem-11211 14 4 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 14 5 accurate accurate ADJ fbem-11211 14 6 short short ADJ fbem-11211 14 7 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 14 8 term term NOUN fbem-11211 14 9 forecasts forecast NOUN fbem-11211 14 10 of of ADP fbem-11211 14 11 the the DET fbem-11211 14 12 index index NOUN fbem-11211 14 13 can can AUX fbem-11211 14 14 assist assist VERB fbem-11211 14 15 investors investor NOUN fbem-11211 14 16 in in ADP fbem-11211 14 17 making make VERB fbem-11211 14 18 informed informed ADJ fbem-11211 14 19 decisions decision NOUN fbem-11211 14 20 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 14 21 optimizing optimize VERB fbem-11211 14 22 portfolios portfolio NOUN fbem-11211 14 23 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 14 24 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 14 25 mitigating mitigate VERB fbem-11211 14 26 risks risk NOUN fbem-11211 14 27 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 15 1 the the DET fbem-11211 15 2 volatility volatility NOUN fbem-11211 15 3 forecasts forecast NOUN fbem-11211 15 4 provided provide VERB fbem-11211 15 5 by by ADP fbem-11211 15 6 the the DET fbem-11211 15 7 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 15 8 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 15 9 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 15 10 model model NOUN fbem-11211 15 11 enable enable VERB fbem-11211 15 12 effective effective ADJ fbem-11211 15 13 risk risk NOUN fbem-11211 15 14 assessment assessment NOUN fbem-11211 15 15 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 15 16 control control NOUN fbem-11211 15 17 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 16 1 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 16 2 institutions institution NOUN fbem-11211 16 3 can can AUX fbem-11211 16 4 leverage leverage VERB fbem-11211 16 5 these these DET fbem-11211 16 6 predictions prediction NOUN fbem-11211 16 7 to to PART fbem-11211 16 8 enhance enhance VERB fbem-11211 16 9 asset asset NOUN fbem-11211 16 10 allocation allocation NOUN fbem-11211 16 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 16 12 improve improve VERB fbem-11211 16 13 investment investment NOUN fbem-11211 16 14 decisions decision NOUN fbem-11211 16 15 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 16 16 regulate regulate VERB fbem-11211 16 17 markets market NOUN fbem-11211 16 18 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 16 19 protect protect VERB fbem-11211 16 20 investors investor NOUN fbem-11211 16 21 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 16 22 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 16 23 promote promote VERB fbem-11211 16 24 overall overall ADJ fbem-11211 16 25 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 16 26 market market NOUN fbem-11211 16 27 development development NOUN fbem-11211 16 28 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 17 1 2 2 X fbem-11211 17 2 . . X fbem-11211 17 3 literature literature NOUN fbem-11211 17 4 review review VERB fbem-11211 17 5 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 17 6 market market NOUN fbem-11211 17 7 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 17 8 has have AUX fbem-11211 17 9 gained gain VERB fbem-11211 17 10 significant significant ADJ fbem-11211 17 11 attention attention NOUN fbem-11211 17 12 in in ADP fbem-11211 17 13 both both CCONJ fbem-11211 17 14 academic academic ADJ fbem-11211 17 15 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 17 16 practical practical ADJ fbem-11211 17 17 domains domain NOUN fbem-11211 17 18 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 17 19 with with ADP fbem-11211 17 20 the the DET fbem-11211 17 21 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 17 22 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 17 23 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 17 24 model model NOUN fbem-11211 17 25 being be AUX fbem-11211 17 26 widely widely ADV fbem-11211 17 27 applied apply VERB fbem-11211 17 28 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 17 29 studied study VERB fbem-11211 17 30 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 17 31 particularly particularly ADV fbem-11211 17 32 in in ADP fbem-11211 17 33 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 17 34 price price NOUN fbem-11211 17 35 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 17 36 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 18 1 in in ADP fbem-11211 18 2 china china PROPN fbem-11211 18 3 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 18 4 researchers researcher NOUN fbem-11211 18 5 have have AUX fbem-11211 18 6 made make VERB fbem-11211 18 7 notable notable ADJ fbem-11211 18 8 advancements advancement NOUN fbem-11211 18 9 in in ADP fbem-11211 18 10 utilizing utilize VERB fbem-11211 18 11 time time NOUN fbem-11211 18 12 series series NOUN fbem-11211 18 13 analysis analysis NOUN fbem-11211 18 14 for for ADP fbem-11211 18 15 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 18 16 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 18 17 modeling modeling NOUN fbem-11211 18 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 19 1 zha zha PROPN fbem-11211 19 2 zhenghong zhenghong PROPN fbem-11211 19 3 introduced introduce VERB fbem-11211 19 4 the the DET fbem-11211 19 5 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 19 6 model model NOUN fbem-11211 19 7 to to PART fbem-11211 19 8 analyze analyze VERB fbem-11211 19 9 the the DET fbem-11211 19 10 shanghai shanghai PROPN fbem-11211 19 11 stock stock PROPN fbem-11211 19 12 composite composite ADJ fbem-11211 19 13 index index NOUN fbem-11211 19 14 in in ADP fbem-11211 19 15 1999[1 1999[1 NUM fbem-11211 19 16 ] ] PUNCT fbem-11211 19 17 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 20 1 hui hui PROPN fbem-11211 20 2 xiaofeng xiaofeng PROPN fbem-11211 20 3 et et PROPN fbem-11211 20 4 al al PROPN fbem-11211 20 5 . . PROPN fbem-11211 20 6 applied apply VERB fbem-11211 20 7 the the DET fbem-11211 20 8 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 20 9 model model NOUN fbem-11211 20 10 to to PART fbem-11211 20 11 forecast forecast VERB fbem-11211 20 12 the the DET fbem-11211 20 13 rmb rmb NOUN fbem-11211 20 14 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 20 15 usd usd NOUN fbem-11211 20 16 exchange exchange NOUN fbem-11211 20 17 rate[2 rate[2 ADV fbem-11211 20 18 ] ] PUNCT fbem-11211 20 19 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 21 1 liu liu PROPN fbem-11211 21 2 yan yan PROPN fbem-11211 21 3 et et PROPN fbem-11211 21 4 al al PROPN fbem-11211 21 5 . . PROPN fbem-11211 21 6 explored explore VERB fbem-11211 21 7 the the DET fbem-11211 21 8 integration integration NOUN fbem-11211 21 9 of of ADP fbem-11211 21 10 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 21 11 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 21 12 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 21 13 models model NOUN fbem-11211 21 14 by by ADP fbem-11211 21 15 employing employ VERB fbem-11211 21 16 the the DET fbem-11211 21 17 arimagarch arimagarch ADJ fbem-11211 21 18 model model NOUN fbem-11211 21 19 for for ADP fbem-11211 21 20 spot spot NOUN fbem-11211 21 21 electricity electricity NOUN fbem-11211 21 22 price price NOUN fbem-11211 21 23 prediction[3 prediction[3 NOUN fbem-11211 21 24 ] ] PUNCT fbem-11211 21 25 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 22 1 these these DET fbem-11211 22 2 domestic domestic ADJ fbem-11211 22 3 studies study NOUN fbem-11211 22 4 signify signify VERB fbem-11211 22 5 the the DET fbem-11211 22 6 progress progress NOUN fbem-11211 22 7 in in ADP fbem-11211 22 8 applying apply VERB fbem-11211 22 9 time time NOUN fbem-11211 22 10 series series NOUN fbem-11211 22 11 analysis analysis NOUN fbem-11211 22 12 to to ADP fbem-11211 22 13 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 22 14 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 22 15 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 22 16 in in ADP fbem-11211 22 17 china china PROPN fbem-11211 22 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 23 1 internationally internationally ADV fbem-11211 23 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 23 3 the the DET fbem-11211 23 4 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 23 5 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 23 6 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 23 7 model model NOUN fbem-11211 23 8 has have AUX fbem-11211 23 9 been be AUX fbem-11211 23 10 extensively extensively ADV fbem-11211 23 11 studied study VERB fbem-11211 23 12 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 23 13 applied apply VERB fbem-11211 23 14 in in ADP fbem-11211 23 15 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 23 16 price price NOUN fbem-11211 23 17 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 23 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 24 1 engle engle PROPN fbem-11211 24 2 introduced introduce VERB fbem-11211 24 3 the the DET fbem-11211 24 4 arch arch NOUN fbem-11211 24 5 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 24 6 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 24 7 models[4 models[4 NOUN fbem-11211 24 8 ] ] X fbem-11211 24 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 24 10 while while SCONJ fbem-11211 24 11 bollerslev bollerslev ADJ fbem-11211 24 12 further far ADV fbem-11211 24 13 developed develop VERB fbem-11211 24 14 the the DET fbem-11211 24 15 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 24 16 model[5 model[5 PROPN fbem-11211 24 17 ] ] PUNCT fbem-11211 24 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 25 1 ding ding PROPN fbem-11211 25 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 25 3 granger granger PROPN fbem-11211 25 4 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 25 5 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 25 6 engle engle PROPN fbem-11211 25 7 proposed propose VERB fbem-11211 25 8 the the DET fbem-11211 25 9 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 25 10 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 25 11 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 25 12 model model NOUN fbem-11211 25 13 for for ADP fbem-11211 25 14 modeling model VERB fbem-11211 25 15 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 25 16 market market NOUN fbem-11211 25 17 returns[6 returns[6 NOUN fbem-11211 25 18 ] ] PUNCT fbem-11211 25 19 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 25 20 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 25 21 mohammadi mohammadi NOUN fbem-11211 25 22 et et PROPN fbem-11211 25 23 al al PROPN fbem-11211 25 24 . . PROPN fbem-11211 25 25 applied apply VERB fbem-11211 25 26 the the DET fbem-11211 25 27 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 25 28 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 25 29 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 25 30 model model NOUN fbem-11211 25 31 to to PART fbem-11211 25 32 forecast forecast VERB fbem-11211 25 33 crude crude ADJ fbem-11211 25 34 oil oil NOUN fbem-11211 25 35 spot spot NOUN fbem-11211 25 36 prices[7 prices[7 ADV fbem-11211 25 37 ] ] PUNCT fbem-11211 25 38 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 26 1 the the DET fbem-11211 26 2 model model NOUN fbem-11211 26 3 has have AUX fbem-11211 26 4 also also ADV fbem-11211 26 5 been be AUX fbem-11211 26 6 used use VERB fbem-11211 26 7 in in ADP fbem-11211 26 8 other other ADJ fbem-11211 26 9 domains domain NOUN fbem-11211 26 10 such such ADJ fbem-11211 26 11 as as ADP fbem-11211 26 12 tourism tourism NOUN fbem-11211 26 13 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 26 14 by by ADP fbem-11211 26 15 chhorn chhorn ADJ fbem-11211 26 16 [ [ X fbem-11211 26 17 8 8 NUM fbem-11211 26 18 ] ] PUNCT fbem-11211 26 19 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 26 20 network network NOUN fbem-11211 26 21 traffic traffic NOUN fbem-11211 26 22 prediction prediction NOUN fbem-11211 26 23 by by ADP fbem-11211 26 24 zhou[9 zhou[9 NOUN fbem-11211 26 25 ] ] PUNCT fbem-11211 26 26 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 27 1 these these DET fbem-11211 27 2 international international ADJ fbem-11211 27 3 studies study NOUN fbem-11211 27 4 highlight highlight VERB fbem-11211 27 5 the the DET fbem-11211 27 6 effectiveness effectiveness NOUN fbem-11211 27 7 of of ADP fbem-11211 27 8 the the DET fbem-11211 27 9 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 27 10 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 27 11 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 27 12 model model NOUN fbem-11211 27 13 in in ADP fbem-11211 27 14 different different ADJ fbem-11211 27 15 markets market NOUN fbem-11211 27 16 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 28 1 overall overall ADV fbem-11211 28 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 28 3 the the DET fbem-11211 28 4 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 28 5 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 28 6 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 28 7 model model NOUN fbem-11211 28 8 has have AUX fbem-11211 28 9 shown show VERB fbem-11211 28 10 promise promise NOUN fbem-11211 28 11 in in ADP fbem-11211 28 12 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 28 13 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 28 14 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 28 15 particularly particularly ADV fbem-11211 28 16 in in ADP fbem-11211 28 17 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 28 18 price price NOUN fbem-11211 28 19 prediction prediction NOUN fbem-11211 28 20 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 29 1 the the DET fbem-11211 29 2 domestic domestic ADJ fbem-11211 29 3 research research NOUN fbem-11211 29 4 in in ADP fbem-11211 29 5 china china PROPN fbem-11211 29 6 has have AUX fbem-11211 29 7 contributed contribute VERB fbem-11211 29 8 to to ADP fbem-11211 29 9 the the DET fbem-11211 29 10 advancement advancement NOUN fbem-11211 29 11 of of ADP fbem-11211 29 12 time time NOUN fbem-11211 29 13 series series NOUN fbem-11211 29 14 analysis analysis NOUN fbem-11211 29 15 for for ADP fbem-11211 29 16 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 29 17 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 29 18 modeling modeling NOUN fbem-11211 29 19 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 29 20 while while SCONJ fbem-11211 29 21 international international ADJ fbem-11211 29 22 studies study NOUN fbem-11211 29 23 have have AUX fbem-11211 29 24 showcased showcase VERB fbem-11211 29 25 the the DET fbem-11211 29 26 model model NOUN fbem-11211 29 27 's 's PART fbem-11211 29 28 effectiveness effectiveness NOUN fbem-11211 29 29 in in ADP fbem-11211 29 30 various various ADJ fbem-11211 29 31 markets market NOUN fbem-11211 29 32 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 30 1 however however ADV fbem-11211 30 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 30 3 continuous continuous ADJ fbem-11211 30 4 improvement improvement NOUN fbem-11211 30 5 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 30 6 development development NOUN fbem-11211 30 7 of of ADP fbem-11211 30 8 more more ADV fbem-11211 30 9 accurate accurate ADJ fbem-11211 30 10 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 30 11 reliable reliable ADJ fbem-11211 30 12 prediction prediction NOUN fbem-11211 30 13 models model NOUN fbem-11211 30 14 are be AUX fbem-11211 30 15 necessary necessary ADJ fbem-11211 30 16 to to PART fbem-11211 30 17 meet meet VERB fbem-11211 30 18 the the DET fbem-11211 30 19 evolving evolve VERB fbem-11211 30 20 demands demand NOUN fbem-11211 30 21 of of ADP fbem-11211 30 22 the the DET fbem-11211 30 23 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 30 24 market market NOUN fbem-11211 30 25 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 31 1 3 3 X fbem-11211 31 2 . . X fbem-11211 31 3 theoretical theoretical ADJ fbem-11211 31 4 basis basis NOUN fbem-11211 31 5 3.1 3.1 NUM fbem-11211 31 6 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 31 7 principle principle NOUN fbem-11211 31 8 of of ADP fbem-11211 31 9 the the DET fbem-11211 31 10 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 31 11 model model NOUN fbem-11211 31 12 the the DET fbem-11211 31 13 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 31 14 model model NOUN fbem-11211 31 15 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 31 16 developed develop VERB fbem-11211 31 17 by by ADP fbem-11211 31 18 box box PROPN fbem-11211 31 19 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 31 20 jenkins jenkins PROPN fbem-11211 31 21 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 31 22 is be AUX fbem-11211 31 23 a a DET fbem-11211 31 24 stochastic stochastic ADJ fbem-11211 31 25 time time NOUN fbem-11211 31 26 series series NOUN fbem-11211 31 27 model model NOUN fbem-11211 31 28 known know VERB fbem-11211 31 29 as as ADP fbem-11211 31 30 the the DET fbem-11211 31 31 box box PROPN fbem-11211 31 32 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 31 33 jenkins jenkin NOUN fbem-11211 31 34 model model NOUN fbem-11211 31 35 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 32 1 it it PRON fbem-11211 32 2 uses use VERB fbem-11211 32 3 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 32 4 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 32 5 partial partial ADJ fbem-11211 32 6 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 32 7 functions function NOUN fbem-11211 32 8 to to PART fbem-11211 32 9 analyze analyze VERB fbem-11211 32 10 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 32 11 randomness randomness NOUN fbem-11211 32 12 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 32 13 make make VERB fbem-11211 32 14 future future ADJ fbem-11211 32 15 trend trend NOUN fbem-11211 32 16 predictions prediction NOUN fbem-11211 32 17 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 33 1 represented represent VERB fbem-11211 33 2 as as ADP fbem-11211 33 3 arima(p arima(p PROPN fbem-11211 33 4 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 33 5 d d NOUN fbem-11211 33 6 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 33 7 q q NOUN fbem-11211 33 8 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 33 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 33 10 the the DET fbem-11211 33 11 model model NOUN fbem-11211 33 12 adjusts adjust VERB fbem-11211 33 13 parameters parameter NOUN fbem-11211 33 14 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 33 15 p p X fbem-11211 33 16 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 33 17 d d NOUN fbem-11211 33 18 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 33 19 q q NOUN fbem-11211 33 20 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 33 21 to to PART fbem-11211 33 22 capture capture VERB fbem-11211 33 23 dataset dataset ADJ fbem-11211 33 24 characteristics characteristic NOUN fbem-11211 33 25 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 33 26 randomness randomness NOUN fbem-11211 33 27 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 34 1 the the DET fbem-11211 34 2 arima(p arima(p PROPN fbem-11211 34 3 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 34 4 d d NOUN fbem-11211 34 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 34 6 q q NOUN fbem-11211 34 7 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 34 8 model model NOUN fbem-11211 34 9 can can AUX fbem-11211 34 10 be be AUX fbem-11211 34 11 represented represent VERB fbem-11211 34 12 by by ADP fbem-11211 34 13 the the DET fbem-11211 34 14 equation equation NOUN fbem-11211 34 15 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 34 16 𝒅𝑿𝒕 𝒅𝑿𝒕 X fbem-11211 34 17 𝒄 𝒄 X fbem-11211 34 18 βˆ‘ βˆ‘ ADP fbem-11211 34 19 π“π’Š π“π’Š PROPN fbem-11211 34 20 d𝑿𝒕 d𝑿𝒕 NOUN fbem-11211 34 21 π’Š π’Š VERB fbem-11211 34 22 𝑷 𝑷 PROPN fbem-11211 34 23 π’Š π’Š X fbem-11211 34 24 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 34 25 πœΊπ’• πœΊπ’• NOUN fbem-11211 34 26 πœ½π’‹πœΊπ’• πœ½π’‹πœΊπ’• ADV fbem-11211 34 27 𝒋 𝒋 PART fbem-11211 34 28 𝒒 𝒒 X fbem-11211 34 29 𝒋 𝒋 PART fbem-11211 34 30 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 34 31 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 34 32 1 1 NUM fbem-11211 34 33 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 34 34 where where SCONJ fbem-11211 34 35 c c NOUN fbem-11211 34 36 is be AUX fbem-11211 34 37 a a DET fbem-11211 34 38 constant constant ADJ fbem-11211 34 39 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 34 40 p p X fbem-11211 34 41 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 34 42 d d PROPN fbem-11211 34 43 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 34 44 q q PUNCT fbem-11211 34 45 represents represent VERB fbem-11211 34 46 the the DET fbem-11211 34 47 autoregressive autoregressive ADJ fbem-11211 34 48 order order NOUN fbem-11211 34 49 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 34 50 differencing difference VERB fbem-11211 34 51 order order NOUN fbem-11211 34 52 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 34 53 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 34 54 moving move VERB fbem-11211 34 55 average average ADJ fbem-11211 34 56 order order NOUN fbem-11211 34 57 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 34 58 respectively respectively ADV fbem-11211 34 59 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 35 1 𝑋 𝑋 PROPN fbem-11211 35 2 represents represent VERB fbem-11211 35 3 the the DET fbem-11211 35 4 time time NOUN fbem-11211 35 5 series series NOUN fbem-11211 35 6 at at ADP fbem-11211 35 7 time time NOUN fbem-11211 35 8 t t PROPN fbem-11211 35 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 35 10 πœ™ πœ™ PROPN fbem-11211 35 11 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 35 12 πœƒ πœƒ X fbem-11211 35 13 are be AUX fbem-11211 35 14 the the DET fbem-11211 35 15 stationary stationary ADJ fbem-11211 35 16 polynomial polynomial ADJ fbem-11211 35 17 operators operator NOUN fbem-11211 35 18 of of ADP fbem-11211 35 19 order order NOUN fbem-11211 35 20 p p NOUN fbem-11211 35 21 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 35 22 q q NOUN fbem-11211 35 23 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 35 24 respectively respectively ADV fbem-11211 35 25 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 35 26 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 35 27 πœ€ πœ€ PROPN fbem-11211 35 28 denotes denote VERB fbem-11211 35 29 the the DET fbem-11211 35 30 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 35 31 term term NOUN fbem-11211 35 32 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 36 1 51 51 NUM fbem-11211 36 2 3.2 3.2 NUM fbem-11211 36 3 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 36 4 principle principle NOUN fbem-11211 36 5 of of ADP fbem-11211 36 6 the the DET fbem-11211 36 7 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 36 8 model model NOUN fbem-11211 36 9 in in ADP fbem-11211 36 10 1986 1986 NUM fbem-11211 36 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 36 12 bollerslev bollerslev NOUN fbem-11211 36 13 developed develop VERB fbem-11211 36 14 the the DET fbem-11211 36 15 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 36 16 model model NOUN fbem-11211 36 17 by by ADP fbem-11211 36 18 incorporating incorporate VERB fbem-11211 36 19 lag lag NOUN fbem-11211 36 20 order order NOUN fbem-11211 36 21 from from ADP fbem-11211 36 22 the the DET fbem-11211 36 23 arch arch ADJ fbem-11211 36 24 model model NOUN fbem-11211 36 25 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 37 1 the the DET fbem-11211 37 2 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 37 3 model model NOUN fbem-11211 37 4 effectively effectively ADV fbem-11211 37 5 addresses address VERB fbem-11211 37 6 the the DET fbem-11211 37 7 issue issue NOUN fbem-11211 37 8 of of ADP fbem-11211 37 9 " " PUNCT fbem-11211 37 10 fat fat ADJ fbem-11211 37 11 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 37 12 tailed tailed ADJ fbem-11211 37 13 " " PUNCT fbem-11211 37 14 distribution distribution NOUN fbem-11211 37 15 in in ADP fbem-11211 37 16 time time NOUN fbem-11211 37 17 series series PROPN fbem-11211 37 18 data data PROPN fbem-11211 37 19 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 37 20 resulting result VERB fbem-11211 37 21 in in ADP fbem-11211 37 22 enhanced enhance VERB fbem-11211 37 23 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 37 24 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 37 25 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 38 1 it it PRON fbem-11211 38 2 is be AUX fbem-11211 38 3 widely widely ADV fbem-11211 38 4 used use VERB fbem-11211 38 5 for for ADP fbem-11211 38 6 analyzing analyze VERB fbem-11211 38 7 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 38 8 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 38 9 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 38 10 making make VERB fbem-11211 38 11 decisions decision NOUN fbem-11211 38 12 related relate VERB fbem-11211 38 13 to to ADP fbem-11211 38 14 asset asset NOUN fbem-11211 38 15 allocation allocation NOUN fbem-11211 38 16 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 38 17 hedging hedging NOUN fbem-11211 38 18 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 38 19 risk risk NOUN fbem-11211 38 20 management management NOUN fbem-11211 38 21 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 38 22 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 38 23 portfolio portfolio NOUN fbem-11211 38 24 optimization optimization NOUN fbem-11211 38 25 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 39 1 the the DET fbem-11211 39 2 garch(m garch(m NOUN fbem-11211 39 3 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 39 4 n n CCONJ fbem-11211 39 5 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 39 6 model model NOUN fbem-11211 39 7 can can AUX fbem-11211 39 8 be be AUX fbem-11211 39 9 represented represent VERB fbem-11211 39 10 as as SCONJ fbem-11211 39 11 follows follow VERB fbem-11211 39 12 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 39 13 πˆπ’• πˆπ’• PROPN fbem-11211 39 14 𝜢𝟎 𝜢𝟎 NOUN fbem-11211 39 15 𝟐 𝟐 NUM fbem-11211 39 16 πœΆπ’Šπˆπ’• πœΆπ’Šπˆπ’• NOUN fbem-11211 40 1 π’Š π’Š NOUN fbem-11211 40 2 πŸπ’– πŸπ’– NOUN fbem-11211 40 3 π’Š π’Š X fbem-11211 40 4 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 40 5 π†π’‹πœΊπ’• π†π’‹πœΊπ’• NOUN fbem-11211 40 6 𝒋 𝒋 X fbem-11211 40 7 𝟐 𝟐 NUM fbem-11211 40 8 𝒗 𝒗 PROPN fbem-11211 40 9 𝑱 𝑱 NOUN fbem-11211 40 10 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 40 11 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 40 12 2 2 NUM fbem-11211 40 13 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 40 14 subject subject NOUN fbem-11211 40 15 to to ADP fbem-11211 40 16 the the DET fbem-11211 40 17 following follow VERB fbem-11211 40 18 constraints constraint NOUN fbem-11211 40 19 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 40 20 𝜢𝟎 𝜢𝟎 NOUN fbem-11211 40 21 𝟎 𝟎 PROPN fbem-11211 40 22 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 40 23 πœΆπ’Š πœΆπ’Š X fbem-11211 40 24 𝟎 𝟎 PROPN fbem-11211 40 25 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 40 26 πœ·π’Š πœ·π’Š X fbem-11211 40 27 𝟎 𝟎 NUM fbem-11211 40 28 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 40 29 π’Š π’Š X fbem-11211 40 30 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 40 31 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 40 32 𝟐 𝟐 NUM fbem-11211 40 33 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 40 34 … … PUNCT fbem-11211 40 35 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 40 36 𝒖 𝒖 X fbem-11211 40 37 ; ; PUNCT fbem-11211 40 38 𝒋 𝒋 X fbem-11211 40 39 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 40 40 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 40 41 𝟐 𝟐 NUM fbem-11211 40 42 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 40 43 … … PUNCT fbem-11211 40 44 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 40 45 𝒗 𝒗 PROPN fbem-11211 40 46 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 40 47 3 3 NUM fbem-11211 40 48 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 40 49 3.3 3.3 NUM fbem-11211 40 50 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 41 1 principle principle NOUN fbem-11211 41 2 of of ADP fbem-11211 41 3 the the DET fbem-11211 41 4 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 41 5 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 41 6 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 41 7 model model NOUN fbem-11211 41 8 the the DET fbem-11211 41 9 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 41 10 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 41 11 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 41 12 hybrid hybrid NOUN fbem-11211 41 13 model model NOUN fbem-11211 41 14 combines combine VERB fbem-11211 41 15 the the DET fbem-11211 41 16 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 41 17 model model NOUN fbem-11211 41 18 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 41 19 the the DET fbem-11211 41 20 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 41 21 model model NOUN fbem-11211 41 22 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 41 23 can can AUX fbem-11211 41 24 be be AUX fbem-11211 41 25 represented represent VERB fbem-11211 41 26 as as SCONJ fbem-11211 41 27 follows follow VERB fbem-11211 41 28 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 42 1 𝒅𝑿𝒕 𝒅𝑿𝒕 NOUN fbem-11211 42 2 π“πŸŽ π“πŸŽ VERB fbem-11211 42 3 βˆ‘ βˆ‘ PUNCT fbem-11211 42 4 π“π’Š π“π’Š PROPN fbem-11211 42 5 d𝑿𝒕 d𝑿𝒕 NOUN fbem-11211 42 6 π’Š π’Š VERB fbem-11211 42 7 𝑷 𝑷 ADP fbem-11211 42 8 π’Š π’Š X fbem-11211 42 9 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 42 10 𝒖𝒕 𝒖𝒕 PROPN fbem-11211 42 11 πœ½π’‹π’–π’• πœ½π’‹π’–π’• NOUN fbem-11211 42 12 𝒋 𝒋 X fbem-11211 42 13 𝒒 𝒒 ADP fbem-11211 42 14 𝒋 𝒋 PART fbem-11211 42 15 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 42 16 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 42 17 4 4 NUM fbem-11211 42 18 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 42 19 𝒖𝒕 𝒖𝒕 PROPN fbem-11211 42 20 𝝈 𝝈 NOUN fbem-11211 42 21 π’•πœΊπ’• π’•πœΊπ’• NOUN fbem-11211 42 22 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 42 23 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 42 24 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 42 25 πˆπ’• πˆπ’• PROPN fbem-11211 42 26 𝜢𝟎 𝜢𝟎 NOUN fbem-11211 42 27 𝟐 𝟐 NUM fbem-11211 42 28 πœΆπ’Šπˆπ’• πœΆπ’Šπˆπ’• NOUN fbem-11211 42 29 π’Š π’Š NOUN fbem-11211 42 30 πŸπ’– πŸπ’– NOUN fbem-11211 42 31 π’Š π’Š X fbem-11211 42 32 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 42 33 π†π’‹πœΊπ’• π†π’‹πœΊπ’• NOUN fbem-11211 42 34 𝒋 𝒋 X fbem-11211 42 35 𝟐 𝟐 NUM fbem-11211 42 36 𝒗 𝒗 PROPN fbem-11211 42 37 𝑱 𝑱 NOUN fbem-11211 42 38 𝟏 𝟏 NUM fbem-11211 42 39 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 42 40 6 6 NUM fbem-11211 42 41 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 42 42 where where SCONJ fbem-11211 42 43 0 0 NUM fbem-11211 42 44 βˆ‘ βˆ‘ PART fbem-11211 42 45 𝛼 𝛼 X fbem-11211 42 46 βˆ‘ βˆ‘ PART fbem-11211 42 47 𝛽 𝛽 PROPN fbem-11211 42 48 1 1 NUM fbem-11211 42 49 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 42 50 πœ€ πœ€ PROPN fbem-11211 42 51 represents represent VERB fbem-11211 42 52 the the DET fbem-11211 42 53 random random ADJ fbem-11211 42 54 error error NOUN fbem-11211 42 55 term term NOUN fbem-11211 42 56 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 42 57 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 42 58 𝑒 𝑒 NOUN fbem-11211 42 59 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 42 60 𝑣 𝑣 PART fbem-11211 42 61 denote denote VERB fbem-11211 42 62 the the DET fbem-11211 42 63 orders order NOUN fbem-11211 42 64 of of ADP fbem-11211 42 65 the the DET fbem-11211 42 66 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 42 67 model model NOUN fbem-11211 42 68 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 42 69 the the DET fbem-11211 42 70 arch arch ADJ fbem-11211 42 71 model model NOUN fbem-11211 42 72 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 42 73 respectively respectively ADV fbem-11211 42 74 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 43 1 𝜎 𝜎 PROPN fbem-11211 43 2 represents represent VERB fbem-11211 43 3 the the DET fbem-11211 43 4 conditional conditional ADJ fbem-11211 43 5 variance variance NOUN fbem-11211 43 6 of of ADP fbem-11211 43 7 πœ€ πœ€ PROPN fbem-11211 43 8 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 43 9 reflecting reflect VERB fbem-11211 43 10 the the DET fbem-11211 43 11 volatility volatility NOUN fbem-11211 43 12 characteristics characteristic NOUN fbem-11211 43 13 of of ADP fbem-11211 43 14 the the DET fbem-11211 43 15 time time NOUN fbem-11211 43 16 series series NOUN fbem-11211 43 17 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 44 1 4 4 X fbem-11211 44 2 . . X fbem-11211 44 3 empirical empirical ADJ fbem-11211 44 4 study study NOUN fbem-11211 44 5 4.1 4.1 NUM fbem-11211 44 6 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 45 1 research research NOUN fbem-11211 45 2 method method NOUN fbem-11211 45 3 this this DET fbem-11211 45 4 study study NOUN fbem-11211 45 5 utilizes utilize VERB fbem-11211 45 6 the the DET fbem-11211 45 7 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 45 8 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 45 9 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 45 10 model model NOUN fbem-11211 45 11 to to PART fbem-11211 45 12 forecast forecast VERB fbem-11211 45 13 short short ADJ fbem-11211 45 14 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 45 15 term term NOUN fbem-11211 45 16 trends trend NOUN fbem-11211 45 17 in in ADP fbem-11211 45 18 the the DET fbem-11211 45 19 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 45 20 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 45 21 index index NOUN fbem-11211 45 22 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 46 1 the the DET fbem-11211 46 2 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 46 3 model model NOUN fbem-11211 46 4 captures capture NOUN fbem-11211 46 5 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 46 6 predicts predict VERB fbem-11211 46 7 the the DET fbem-11211 46 8 trend trend NOUN fbem-11211 46 9 component component NOUN fbem-11211 46 10 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 46 11 while while SCONJ fbem-11211 46 12 the the DET fbem-11211 46 13 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 46 14 model model NOUN fbem-11211 46 15 models model NOUN fbem-11211 46 16 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 46 17 predicts predict VERB fbem-11211 46 18 the the DET fbem-11211 46 19 volatility volatility NOUN fbem-11211 46 20 component component NOUN fbem-11211 46 21 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 47 1 by by ADP fbem-11211 47 2 considering consider VERB fbem-11211 47 3 both both CCONJ fbem-11211 47 4 trend trend NOUN fbem-11211 47 5 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 47 6 volatility volatility NOUN fbem-11211 47 7 characteristics characteristic NOUN fbem-11211 47 8 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 47 9 this this DET fbem-11211 47 10 combined combined ADJ fbem-11211 47 11 model model NOUN fbem-11211 47 12 improves improve VERB fbem-11211 47 13 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 47 14 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 47 15 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 48 1 4.2 4.2 NUM fbem-11211 48 2 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 49 1 experimental experimental ADJ fbem-11211 49 2 steps step NOUN fbem-11211 49 3 1 1 NUM fbem-11211 49 4 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 49 5 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 49 6 collection collection NOUN fbem-11211 49 7 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 49 8 preprocessing preprocessing NOUN fbem-11211 49 9 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 49 10 historical historical ADJ fbem-11211 49 11 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 49 12 of of ADP fbem-11211 49 13 the the DET fbem-11211 49 14 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 49 15 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 49 16 index index NOUN fbem-11211 49 17 is be AUX fbem-11211 49 18 collected collect VERB fbem-11211 49 19 from from ADP fbem-11211 49 20 official official ADJ fbem-11211 49 21 websites website NOUN fbem-11211 49 22 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 49 23 undergoes undergo VERB fbem-11211 49 24 cleaning clean VERB fbem-11211 49 25 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 49 26 preprocessing preprocessing NOUN fbem-11211 49 27 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 49 28 including include VERB fbem-11211 49 29 handling handle VERB fbem-11211 49 30 missing miss VERB fbem-11211 49 31 values value NOUN fbem-11211 49 32 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 49 33 outlier outlier NOUN fbem-11211 49 34 treatment treatment NOUN fbem-11211 49 35 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 49 36 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 49 37 smoothing smoothing NOUN fbem-11211 49 38 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 49 39 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 49 40 normalization normalization NOUN fbem-11211 49 41 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 50 1 2 2 X fbem-11211 50 2 . . X fbem-11211 50 3 building build VERB fbem-11211 50 4 the the DET fbem-11211 50 5 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 50 6 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 50 7 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 50 8 model model NOUN fbem-11211 50 9 for for ADP fbem-11211 50 10 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 50 11 price price NOUN fbem-11211 50 12 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 50 13 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 50 14 the the DET fbem-11211 50 15 correlation correlation NOUN fbem-11211 50 16 between between ADP fbem-11211 50 17 time time NOUN fbem-11211 50 18 series series NOUN fbem-11211 50 19 models model NOUN fbem-11211 50 20 is be AUX fbem-11211 50 21 tested test VERB fbem-11211 50 22 to to PART fbem-11211 50 23 examine examine VERB fbem-11211 50 24 the the DET fbem-11211 50 25 existence existence NOUN fbem-11211 50 26 of of ADP fbem-11211 50 27 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 50 28 among among ADP fbem-11211 50 29 the the DET fbem-11211 50 30 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 50 31 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 51 1 3 3 X fbem-11211 51 2 . . X fbem-11211 51 3 stationarity stationarity NOUN fbem-11211 51 4 testing testing NOUN fbem-11211 51 5 of of ADP fbem-11211 51 6 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 51 7 price price NOUN fbem-11211 51 8 time time NOUN fbem-11211 51 9 series series NOUN fbem-11211 51 10 using use VERB fbem-11211 51 11 adf adf PROPN fbem-11211 51 12 unit unit NOUN fbem-11211 51 13 root root PROPN fbem-11211 51 14 test test NOUN fbem-11211 51 15 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 52 1 4 4 X fbem-11211 52 2 . . X fbem-11211 52 3 non non ADJ fbem-11211 52 4 - - ADJ fbem-11211 52 5 stationary stationary ADJ fbem-11211 52 6 series series NOUN fbem-11211 52 7 are be AUX fbem-11211 52 8 differenced difference VERB fbem-11211 52 9 to to PART fbem-11211 52 10 transform transform VERB fbem-11211 52 11 the the DET fbem-11211 52 12 original original ADJ fbem-11211 52 13 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 52 14 price price NOUN fbem-11211 52 15 series series NOUN fbem-11211 52 16 into into ADP fbem-11211 52 17 a a DET fbem-11211 52 18 stationary stationary ADJ fbem-11211 52 19 series series NOUN fbem-11211 52 20 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 53 1 5 5 X fbem-11211 53 2 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 53 3 model model NOUN fbem-11211 53 4 order order NOUN fbem-11211 53 5 is be AUX fbem-11211 53 6 determined determine VERB fbem-11211 53 7 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 53 8 parameter parameter NOUN fbem-11211 53 9 estimation estimation NOUN fbem-11211 53 10 is be AUX fbem-11211 53 11 conducted conduct VERB fbem-11211 53 12 using use VERB fbem-11211 53 13 the the DET fbem-11211 53 14 aic aic PROPN fbem-11211 53 15 criterion criterion NOUN fbem-11211 53 16 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 54 1 6 6 NUM fbem-11211 54 2 . . X fbem-11211 54 3 arch arch ADJ fbem-11211 54 4 test test NOUN fbem-11211 54 5 is be AUX fbem-11211 54 6 performed perform VERB fbem-11211 54 7 on on ADP fbem-11211 54 8 the the DET fbem-11211 54 9 selected select VERB fbem-11211 54 10 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 54 11 model model NOUN fbem-11211 54 12 to to PART fbem-11211 54 13 determine determine VERB fbem-11211 54 14 the the DET fbem-11211 54 15 presence presence NOUN fbem-11211 54 16 of of ADP fbem-11211 54 17 heteroscedasticity heteroscedasticity NOUN fbem-11211 54 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 55 1 if if SCONJ fbem-11211 55 2 heteroscedasticity heteroscedasticity NOUN fbem-11211 55 3 is be AUX fbem-11211 55 4 detected detect VERB fbem-11211 55 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 55 6 a a DET fbem-11211 55 7 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 55 8 model model NOUN fbem-11211 55 9 needs need VERB fbem-11211 55 10 to to PART fbem-11211 55 11 be be AUX fbem-11211 55 12 established establish VERB fbem-11211 55 13 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 56 1 7 7 X fbem-11211 56 2 . . X fbem-11211 56 3 residuals residual NOUN fbem-11211 56 4 of of ADP fbem-11211 56 5 the the DET fbem-11211 56 6 developed develop VERB fbem-11211 56 7 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 56 8 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 56 9 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 56 10 model model NOUN fbem-11211 56 11 are be AUX fbem-11211 56 12 tested test VERB fbem-11211 56 13 for for ADP fbem-11211 56 14 a a DET fbem-11211 56 15 white white ADJ fbem-11211 56 16 noise noise NOUN fbem-11211 56 17 process process NOUN fbem-11211 56 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 57 1 if if SCONJ fbem-11211 57 2 the the DET fbem-11211 57 3 criteria criterion NOUN fbem-11211 57 4 are be AUX fbem-11211 57 5 not not PART fbem-11211 57 6 met meet VERB fbem-11211 57 7 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 57 8 further further ADJ fbem-11211 57 9 model model NOUN fbem-11211 57 10 improvements improvement NOUN fbem-11211 57 11 are be AUX fbem-11211 57 12 needed need VERB fbem-11211 57 13 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 58 1 8 8 X fbem-11211 58 2 . . X fbem-11211 58 3 using use VERB fbem-11211 58 4 the the DET fbem-11211 58 5 established establish VERB fbem-11211 58 6 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 58 7 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 58 8 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 58 9 model model NOUN fbem-11211 58 10 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 58 11 the the DET fbem-11211 58 12 closing close VERB fbem-11211 58 13 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 58 14 of of ADP fbem-11211 58 15 the the DET fbem-11211 58 16 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 58 17 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 58 18 index index NOUN fbem-11211 58 19 are be AUX fbem-11211 58 20 forecasted forecast VERB fbem-11211 58 21 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 58 22 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 58 23 the the DET fbem-11211 58 24 relative relative ADJ fbem-11211 58 25 errors error NOUN fbem-11211 58 26 between between ADP fbem-11211 58 27 predicted predict VERB fbem-11211 58 28 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 58 29 actual actual ADJ fbem-11211 58 30 values value NOUN fbem-11211 58 31 are be AUX fbem-11211 58 32 calculated calculate VERB fbem-11211 58 33 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 59 1 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 59 2 is be AUX fbem-11211 59 3 evaluated evaluate VERB fbem-11211 59 4 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 59 5 compared compare VERB fbem-11211 59 6 with with ADP fbem-11211 59 7 the the DET fbem-11211 59 8 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 59 9 model model NOUN fbem-11211 59 10 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 60 1 9 9 X fbem-11211 60 2 . . X fbem-11211 60 3 using use VERB fbem-11211 60 4 the the DET fbem-11211 60 5 finalized finalized ADJ fbem-11211 60 6 model model NOUN fbem-11211 60 7 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 60 8 the the DET fbem-11211 60 9 closing close VERB fbem-11211 60 10 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 60 11 of of ADP fbem-11211 60 12 the the DET fbem-11211 60 13 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 60 14 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 60 15 index index NOUN fbem-11211 60 16 are be AUX fbem-11211 60 17 predicted predict VERB fbem-11211 60 18 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 60 19 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 60 20 the the DET fbem-11211 60 21 relative relative ADJ fbem-11211 60 22 errors error NOUN fbem-11211 60 23 between between ADP fbem-11211 60 24 the the DET fbem-11211 60 25 predicted predict VERB fbem-11211 60 26 values value NOUN fbem-11211 60 27 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 60 28 the the DET fbem-11211 60 29 actual actual ADJ fbem-11211 60 30 values value NOUN fbem-11211 60 31 are be AUX fbem-11211 60 32 calculated calculate VERB fbem-11211 60 33 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 61 1 4.3 4.3 NUM fbem-11211 61 2 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 61 3 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 61 4 source source NOUN fbem-11211 61 5 this this DET fbem-11211 61 6 article article NOUN fbem-11211 61 7 is be AUX fbem-11211 61 8 based base VERB fbem-11211 61 9 on on ADP fbem-11211 61 10 the the DET fbem-11211 61 11 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 61 12 price price NOUN fbem-11211 61 13 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 61 14 of of ADP fbem-11211 61 15 the the DET fbem-11211 61 16 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 61 17 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 61 18 index index NOUN fbem-11211 61 19 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 61 20 000300 000300 NUM fbem-11211 61 21 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 61 22 from from ADP fbem-11211 61 23 february february PROPN fbem-11211 61 24 9 9 NUM fbem-11211 61 25 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 61 26 2015 2015 NUM fbem-11211 61 27 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 61 28 to to ADP fbem-11211 61 29 april april PROPN fbem-11211 61 30 28 28 NUM fbem-11211 61 31 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 61 32 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 61 33 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 62 1 a a DET fbem-11211 62 2 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 62 3 price price NOUN fbem-11211 62 4 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 62 5 model model NOUN fbem-11211 62 6 is be AUX fbem-11211 62 7 established establish VERB fbem-11211 62 8 using use VERB fbem-11211 62 9 this this DET fbem-11211 62 10 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 62 11 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 63 1 for for ADP fbem-11211 63 2 testing testing NOUN fbem-11211 63 3 purposes purpose NOUN fbem-11211 63 4 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 63 5 the the DET fbem-11211 63 6 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 63 7 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 63 8 for for ADP fbem-11211 63 9 a a DET fbem-11211 63 10 total total NOUN fbem-11211 63 11 of of ADP fbem-11211 63 12 20 20 NUM fbem-11211 63 13 days day NOUN fbem-11211 63 14 from from ADP fbem-11211 63 15 may may PROPN fbem-11211 63 16 4 4 NUM fbem-11211 63 17 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 63 18 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 63 19 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 63 20 to to PART fbem-11211 63 21 may may PROPN fbem-11211 63 22 31 31 NUM fbem-11211 63 23 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 63 24 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 63 25 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 63 26 are be AUX fbem-11211 63 27 selected select VERB fbem-11211 63 28 as as ADP fbem-11211 63 29 the the DET fbem-11211 63 30 test test NOUN fbem-11211 63 31 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 63 32 for for ADP fbem-11211 63 33 predicting predict VERB fbem-11211 63 34 the the DET fbem-11211 63 35 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 63 36 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 63 37 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 64 1 4.4 4.4 NUM fbem-11211 64 2 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 64 3 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 64 4 preprocessing preprocesse VERB fbem-11211 64 5 the the DET fbem-11211 64 6 results result NOUN fbem-11211 64 7 of of ADP fbem-11211 64 8 the the DET fbem-11211 64 9 durbin durbin ADJ fbem-11211 64 10 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 64 11 watson watson NOUN fbem-11211 64 12 test test NOUN fbem-11211 64 13 are be AUX fbem-11211 64 14 shown show VERB fbem-11211 64 15 in in ADP fbem-11211 64 16 table table NOUN fbem-11211 64 17 1 1 NUM fbem-11211 64 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 64 19 table table NOUN fbem-11211 64 20 1 1 NUM fbem-11211 64 21 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 64 22 durbin durbin ADJ fbem-11211 64 23 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 64 24 watson watson PROPN fbem-11211 64 25 test test NOUN fbem-11211 64 26 results result VERB fbem-11211 64 27 statistic statistic VERB fbem-11211 64 28 dw dw PROPN fbem-11211 64 29 statistic statistic PROPN fbem-11211 64 30 p p ADJ fbem-11211 64 31 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 64 32 value value NOUN fbem-11211 64 33 durbin durbin NOUN fbem-11211 64 34 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 64 35 watson watson NOUN fbem-11211 64 36 1.9167 1.9167 NUM fbem-11211 64 37 0.02838 0.02838 NUM fbem-11211 64 38 the the DET fbem-11211 64 39 dw dw PROPN fbem-11211 64 40 statistic statistic NOUN fbem-11211 64 41 is be AUX fbem-11211 64 42 1.9167 1.9167 NUM fbem-11211 64 43 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 64 44 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 64 45 the the DET fbem-11211 64 46 p p NOUN fbem-11211 64 47 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 64 48 value value NOUN fbem-11211 64 49 is be AUX fbem-11211 64 50 0.02838 0.02838 NUM fbem-11211 64 51 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 65 1 based base VERB fbem-11211 65 2 on on ADP fbem-11211 65 3 the the DET fbem-11211 65 4 range range NOUN fbem-11211 65 5 of of ADP fbem-11211 65 6 the the DET fbem-11211 65 7 dw dw PROPN fbem-11211 65 8 statistic statistic PROPN fbem-11211 65 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 65 10 a a DET fbem-11211 65 11 value value NOUN fbem-11211 65 12 close close ADV fbem-11211 65 13 to to ADP fbem-11211 65 14 2 2 NUM fbem-11211 65 15 implies imply VERB fbem-11211 65 16 the the DET fbem-11211 65 17 possible possible ADJ fbem-11211 65 18 presence presence NOUN fbem-11211 65 19 of of ADP fbem-11211 65 20 positive positive ADJ fbem-11211 65 21 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 65 22 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 66 1 since since SCONJ fbem-11211 66 2 the the DET fbem-11211 66 3 p p NOUN fbem-11211 66 4 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 66 5 value value NOUN fbem-11211 66 6 is be AUX fbem-11211 66 7 less less ADJ fbem-11211 66 8 than than ADP fbem-11211 66 9 the the DET fbem-11211 66 10 significance significance NOUN fbem-11211 66 11 level level NOUN fbem-11211 66 12 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 66 13 usually usually ADV fbem-11211 66 14 0.05 0.05 NUM fbem-11211 66 15 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 66 16 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 66 17 we we PRON fbem-11211 66 18 can can AUX fbem-11211 66 19 reject reject VERB fbem-11211 66 20 the the DET fbem-11211 66 21 null null ADJ fbem-11211 66 22 hypothesis hypothesis NOUN fbem-11211 66 23 of of ADP fbem-11211 66 24 zero zero NUM fbem-11211 66 25 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 66 26 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 66 27 accept accept VERB fbem-11211 66 28 the the DET fbem-11211 66 29 alternative alternative ADJ fbem-11211 66 30 hypothesis hypothesis NOUN fbem-11211 66 31 of of ADP fbem-11211 66 32 positive positive ADJ fbem-11211 66 33 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 66 34 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 67 1 overall overall ADJ fbem-11211 67 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 67 3 based base VERB fbem-11211 67 4 on on ADP fbem-11211 67 5 the the DET fbem-11211 67 6 results result NOUN fbem-11211 67 7 of of ADP fbem-11211 67 8 the the DET fbem-11211 67 9 dw dw PROPN fbem-11211 67 10 test test NOUN fbem-11211 67 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 67 12 it it PRON fbem-11211 67 13 suggests suggest VERB fbem-11211 67 14 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 67 15 this this DET fbem-11211 67 16 time time NOUN fbem-11211 67 17 series series PROPN fbem-11211 67 18 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 67 19 may may AUX fbem-11211 67 20 exhibit exhibit VERB fbem-11211 67 21 positive positive ADJ fbem-11211 67 22 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 67 23 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 67 24 indicating indicate VERB fbem-11211 67 25 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 67 26 the the DET fbem-11211 67 27 current current ADJ fbem-11211 67 28 observations observation NOUN fbem-11211 67 29 may may AUX fbem-11211 67 30 be be AUX fbem-11211 67 31 influenced influence VERB fbem-11211 67 32 by by ADP fbem-11211 67 33 lagged lag VERB fbem-11211 67 34 observations observation NOUN fbem-11211 67 35 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 68 1 4.5 4.5 NUM fbem-11211 68 2 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 69 1 stationarity stationarity NOUN fbem-11211 69 2 test test NOUN fbem-11211 69 3 after after ADP fbem-11211 69 4 the the DET fbem-11211 69 5 stationarity stationarity NOUN fbem-11211 69 6 test test NOUN fbem-11211 69 7 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 69 8 the the DET fbem-11211 69 9 time time NOUN fbem-11211 69 10 series series PROPN fbem-11211 69 11 was be AUX fbem-11211 69 12 evaluated evaluate VERB fbem-11211 69 13 using use VERB fbem-11211 69 14 the the DET fbem-11211 69 15 adf adf PROPN fbem-11211 69 16 test test NOUN fbem-11211 69 17 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 70 1 the the DET fbem-11211 70 2 adf adf PROPN fbem-11211 70 3 test test NOUN fbem-11211 70 4 is be AUX fbem-11211 70 5 a a DET fbem-11211 70 6 commonly commonly ADV fbem-11211 70 7 used use VERB fbem-11211 70 8 method method NOUN fbem-11211 70 9 to to PART fbem-11211 70 10 determine determine VERB fbem-11211 70 11 the the DET fbem-11211 70 12 stationarity stationarity NOUN fbem-11211 70 13 of of ADP fbem-11211 70 14 a a DET fbem-11211 70 15 time time NOUN fbem-11211 70 16 series series NOUN fbem-11211 70 17 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 71 1 if if SCONJ fbem-11211 71 2 a a DET fbem-11211 71 3 nonstationary nonstationary ADJ fbem-11211 71 4 time time NOUN fbem-11211 71 5 series series PROPN fbem-11211 71 6 has have VERB fbem-11211 71 7 unit unit NOUN fbem-11211 71 8 roots root NOUN fbem-11211 71 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 71 10 differencing differencing NOUN fbem-11211 71 11 can can AUX fbem-11211 71 12 be be AUX fbem-11211 71 13 used use VERB fbem-11211 71 14 to to PART fbem-11211 71 15 eliminate eliminate VERB fbem-11211 71 16 the the DET fbem-11211 71 17 unit unit NOUN fbem-11211 71 18 roots root NOUN fbem-11211 71 19 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 71 20 obtain obtain VERB fbem-11211 71 21 a a DET fbem-11211 71 22 stationary stationary ADJ fbem-11211 71 23 series series NOUN fbem-11211 71 24 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 72 1 the the DET fbem-11211 72 2 results result NOUN fbem-11211 72 3 of of ADP fbem-11211 72 4 the the DET fbem-11211 72 5 adf adf NOUN fbem-11211 72 6 test test NOUN fbem-11211 72 7 are be AUX fbem-11211 72 8 shown show VERB fbem-11211 72 9 in in ADP fbem-11211 72 10 table table NOUN fbem-11211 72 11 2 2 NUM fbem-11211 72 12 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 72 13 table table NOUN fbem-11211 72 14 2 2 NUM fbem-11211 72 15 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 72 16 augmented augment VERB fbem-11211 72 17 dickey dickey PROPN fbem-11211 72 18 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 72 19 fuller full ADJ fbem-11211 72 20 test test NOUN fbem-11211 72 21 results result NOUN fbem-11211 72 22 test test NOUN fbem-11211 72 23 statistics statistic NOUN fbem-11211 72 24 results result VERB fbem-11211 72 25 dickey dickey PROPN fbem-11211 72 26 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 72 27 fuller full ADJ fbem-11211 72 28 statistics statistic NOUN fbem-11211 72 29 -2.2951 -2.2951 NOUN fbem-11211 72 30 lag lag NOUN fbem-11211 72 31 order order NOUN fbem-11211 72 32 12 12 NUM fbem-11211 72 33 p p ADJ fbem-11211 72 34 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 72 35 value value NOUN fbem-11211 72 36 0.4534 0.4534 NUM fbem-11211 72 37 the the DET fbem-11211 72 38 dickey dickey NOUN fbem-11211 72 39 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 72 40 fuller full ADJ fbem-11211 72 41 statistic statistic NOUN fbem-11211 72 42 value value NOUN fbem-11211 72 43 is be AUX fbem-11211 72 44 -2.2951 -2.2951 PUNCT fbem-11211 72 45 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 73 1 p p NOUN fbem-11211 73 2 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 73 3 value value NOUN fbem-11211 73 4 = = NOUN fbem-11211 73 5 0.4534 0.4534 NUM fbem-11211 73 6 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 73 7 with with ADP fbem-11211 73 8 a a DET fbem-11211 73 9 lag lag NOUN fbem-11211 73 10 order order NOUN fbem-11211 73 11 of of ADP fbem-11211 73 12 12 12 NUM fbem-11211 73 13 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 74 1 the the DET fbem-11211 74 2 adf adf PROPN fbem-11211 74 3 test test NOUN fbem-11211 74 4 was be AUX fbem-11211 74 5 conducted conduct VERB fbem-11211 74 6 assuming assume VERB fbem-11211 74 7 the the DET fbem-11211 74 8 series series NOUN fbem-11211 74 9 is be AUX fbem-11211 74 10 stationary stationary ADJ fbem-11211 74 11 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 75 1 based base VERB fbem-11211 75 2 on on ADP fbem-11211 75 3 the the DET fbem-11211 75 4 test test NOUN fbem-11211 75 5 results result NOUN fbem-11211 75 6 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 75 7 the the DET fbem-11211 75 8 p p NOUN fbem-11211 75 9 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 75 10 value value NOUN fbem-11211 75 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 75 12 the the DET fbem-11211 75 13 following follow VERB fbem-11211 75 14 conclusions conclusion NOUN fbem-11211 75 15 can can AUX fbem-11211 75 16 be be AUX fbem-11211 75 17 made make VERB fbem-11211 75 18 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 75 19 the the DET fbem-11211 75 20 dickey dickey PROPN fbem-11211 75 21 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 75 22 fuller full ADJ fbem-11211 75 23 statistic statistic NOUN fbem-11211 75 24 value value NOUN fbem-11211 75 25 is be AUX fbem-11211 75 26 smaller small ADJ fbem-11211 75 27 than than ADP fbem-11211 75 28 the the DET fbem-11211 75 29 critical critical ADJ fbem-11211 75 30 value value NOUN fbem-11211 75 31 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 75 32 -2.2951 -2.2951 NOUN fbem-11211 75 33 < < X fbem-11211 75 34 -2.885 -2.885 NOUN fbem-11211 75 35 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 75 36 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 75 37 indicating indicate VERB fbem-11211 75 38 insufficient insufficient ADJ fbem-11211 75 39 evidence evidence NOUN fbem-11211 75 40 to to PART fbem-11211 75 41 reject reject VERB fbem-11211 75 42 the the DET fbem-11211 75 43 null null ADJ fbem-11211 75 44 hypothesis hypothesis NOUN fbem-11211 75 45 of of ADP fbem-11211 75 46 unit unit NOUN fbem-11211 75 47 roots root NOUN fbem-11211 75 48 in in ADP fbem-11211 75 49 the the DET fbem-11211 75 50 time time NOUN fbem-11211 75 51 series series NOUN fbem-11211 75 52 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 76 1 moreover moreover ADV fbem-11211 76 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 76 3 52 52 NUM fbem-11211 76 4 the the DET fbem-11211 76 5 p p NOUN fbem-11211 76 6 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 76 7 value value NOUN fbem-11211 76 8 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 76 9 0.4534 0.4534 NUM fbem-11211 76 10 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 76 11 is be AUX fbem-11211 76 12 greater great ADJ fbem-11211 76 13 than than ADP fbem-11211 76 14 the the DET fbem-11211 76 15 significance significance NOUN fbem-11211 76 16 level level NOUN fbem-11211 76 17 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 76 18 usually usually ADV fbem-11211 76 19 0.05 0.05 NUM fbem-11211 76 20 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 76 21 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 76 22 indicating indicate VERB fbem-11211 76 23 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 76 24 the the DET fbem-11211 76 25 series series NOUN fbem-11211 76 26 is be AUX fbem-11211 76 27 non non ADJ fbem-11211 76 28 - - ADJ fbem-11211 76 29 stationary stationary ADJ fbem-11211 76 30 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 77 1 to to PART fbem-11211 77 2 address address VERB fbem-11211 77 3 this this PRON fbem-11211 77 4 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 77 5 differencing differencing NOUN fbem-11211 77 6 was be AUX fbem-11211 77 7 applied apply VERB fbem-11211 77 8 to to ADP fbem-11211 77 9 the the DET fbem-11211 77 10 series series NOUN fbem-11211 77 11 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 78 1 the the DET fbem-11211 78 2 adftest adft ADJ fbem-11211 78 3 function function NOUN fbem-11211 78 4 confirmed confirm VERB fbem-11211 78 5 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 78 6 the the DET fbem-11211 78 7 first first ADJ fbem-11211 78 8 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 78 9 order order NOUN fbem-11211 78 10 differenced differenced ADJ fbem-11211 78 11 series series NOUN fbem-11211 78 12 has have VERB fbem-11211 78 13 a a DET fbem-11211 78 14 p p NOUN fbem-11211 78 15 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 78 16 value value NOUN fbem-11211 78 17 of of ADP fbem-11211 78 18 0.01 0.01 NUM fbem-11211 78 19 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 78 20 which which PRON fbem-11211 78 21 is be AUX fbem-11211 78 22 lower low ADJ fbem-11211 78 23 than than ADP fbem-11211 78 24 the the DET fbem-11211 78 25 significance significance NOUN fbem-11211 78 26 level level NOUN fbem-11211 78 27 of of ADP fbem-11211 78 28 0.05 0.05 NUM fbem-11211 78 29 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 78 30 indicating indicate VERB fbem-11211 78 31 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 78 32 the the DET fbem-11211 78 33 differenced differenced ADJ fbem-11211 78 34 series series NOUN fbem-11211 78 35 is be AUX fbem-11211 78 36 stationary stationary ADJ fbem-11211 78 37 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 79 1 4.6 4.6 NUM fbem-11211 79 2 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 79 3 model model NOUN fbem-11211 79 4 selection selection NOUN fbem-11211 79 5 the the DET fbem-11211 79 6 auto.arima auto.arima PROPN fbem-11211 79 7 function function NOUN fbem-11211 79 8 is be AUX fbem-11211 79 9 used use VERB fbem-11211 79 10 to to PART fbem-11211 79 11 automatically automatically ADV fbem-11211 79 12 select select VERB fbem-11211 79 13 the the DET fbem-11211 79 14 order order NOUN fbem-11211 79 15 of of ADP fbem-11211 79 16 the the DET fbem-11211 79 17 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 79 18 model model NOUN fbem-11211 79 19 based base VERB fbem-11211 79 20 on on ADP fbem-11211 79 21 the the DET fbem-11211 79 22 time time NOUN fbem-11211 79 23 series series PROPN fbem-11211 79 24 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 79 25 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 79 26 provides provide VERB fbem-11211 79 27 suggested suggest VERB fbem-11211 79 28 model model NOUN fbem-11211 79 29 orders order NOUN fbem-11211 79 30 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 80 1 according accord VERB fbem-11211 80 2 to to ADP fbem-11211 80 3 the the DET fbem-11211 80 4 output output NOUN fbem-11211 80 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 80 6 the the DET fbem-11211 80 7 suggested suggest VERB fbem-11211 80 8 model model NOUN fbem-11211 80 9 order order NOUN fbem-11211 80 10 is be AUX fbem-11211 80 11 arima(2,1,3 arima(2,1,3 ADJ fbem-11211 80 12 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 80 13 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 80 14 where where SCONJ fbem-11211 80 15 2 2 NUM fbem-11211 80 16 represents represent VERB fbem-11211 80 17 the the DET fbem-11211 80 18 autoregressive autoregressive ADJ fbem-11211 80 19 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 80 20 ar ar NOUN fbem-11211 80 21 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 80 22 order order NOUN fbem-11211 80 23 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 80 24 1 1 NUM fbem-11211 80 25 represents represent VERB fbem-11211 80 26 the the DET fbem-11211 80 27 differencing difference VERB fbem-11211 80 28 order order NOUN fbem-11211 80 29 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 80 30 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 80 31 3 3 NUM fbem-11211 80 32 represents represent VERB fbem-11211 80 33 the the DET fbem-11211 80 34 moving move VERB fbem-11211 80 35 average average ADJ fbem-11211 80 36 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 80 37 ma ma NOUN fbem-11211 80 38 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 80 39 order order NOUN fbem-11211 80 40 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 81 1 furthermore furthermore ADV fbem-11211 81 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 81 3 the the DET fbem-11211 81 4 aic aic PROPN fbem-11211 81 5 criterion criterion NOUN fbem-11211 81 6 is be AUX fbem-11211 81 7 used use VERB fbem-11211 81 8 to to PART fbem-11211 81 9 determine determine VERB fbem-11211 81 10 the the DET fbem-11211 81 11 model model NOUN fbem-11211 81 12 order order NOUN fbem-11211 81 13 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 82 1 a a DET fbem-11211 82 2 lower low ADJ fbem-11211 82 3 aic aic PROPN fbem-11211 82 4 value value NOUN fbem-11211 82 5 indicates indicate VERB fbem-11211 82 6 a a DET fbem-11211 82 7 better well ADJ fbem-11211 82 8 fit fit NOUN fbem-11211 82 9 of of ADP fbem-11211 82 10 the the DET fbem-11211 82 11 model model NOUN fbem-11211 82 12 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 83 1 the the DET fbem-11211 83 2 aic aic PROPN fbem-11211 83 3 values value NOUN fbem-11211 83 4 for for ADP fbem-11211 83 5 models model NOUN fbem-11211 83 6 such such ADJ fbem-11211 83 7 as as ADP fbem-11211 83 8 arima(0,1,1 arima(0,1,1 NOUN fbem-11211 83 9 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 83 10 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 83 11 arima(1,1,0 arima(1,1,0 PROPN fbem-11211 83 12 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 83 13 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 83 14 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 83 15 arima(1,1,1 arima(1,1,1 NOUN fbem-11211 83 16 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 83 17 are be AUX fbem-11211 83 18 calculated calculate VERB fbem-11211 83 19 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 83 20 the the DET fbem-11211 83 21 results result NOUN fbem-11211 83 22 are be AUX fbem-11211 83 23 as as SCONJ fbem-11211 83 24 follows follow VERB fbem-11211 83 25 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 83 26 table table NOUN fbem-11211 83 27 3 3 NUM fbem-11211 83 28 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 84 1 aic aic PROPN fbem-11211 84 2 values value NOUN fbem-11211 84 3 of of ADP fbem-11211 84 4 models model NOUN fbem-11211 84 5 with with ADP fbem-11211 84 6 different different ADJ fbem-11211 84 7 orders order NOUN fbem-11211 84 8 model model NOUN fbem-11211 84 9 aic aic PROPN fbem-11211 84 10 arima(0,1,1 arima(0,1,1 PROPN fbem-11211 84 11 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 12 22158.1426552579 22158.1426552579 NUM fbem-11211 84 13 arima(0,1,2 arima(0,1,2 ADJ fbem-11211 84 14 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 15 22154.0783469131 22154.0783469131 NUM fbem-11211 84 16 arima(1,1,0 arima(1,1,0 NOUN fbem-11211 84 17 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 18 22158.5709645317 22158.5709645317 NUM fbem-11211 84 19 arima(1,1,1 arima(1,1,1 NOUN fbem-11211 84 20 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 21 22157.1845689969 22157.1845689969 NUM fbem-11211 84 22 arima(1,1,2 arima(1,1,2 ADJ fbem-11211 84 23 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 24 22156.0656794051 22156.0656794051 NUM fbem-11211 84 25 arima(2,1,0 arima(2,1,0 PROPN fbem-11211 84 26 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 27 22153.46743471 22153.46743471 NUM fbem-11211 84 28 arima(2,1,1 arima(2,1,1 NOUN fbem-11211 84 29 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 30 22155.4528326974 22155.4528326974 NUM fbem-11211 84 31 arima(2,1,2 arima(2,1,2 ADJ fbem-11211 84 32 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 33 22113.6034106281 22113.6034106281 NUM fbem-11211 84 34 arima(2,1,3 arima(2,1,3 NOUN fbem-11211 84 35 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 36 22108.3001928576 22108.3001928576 NUM fbem-11211 84 37 based base VERB fbem-11211 84 38 on on ADP fbem-11211 84 39 the the DET fbem-11211 84 40 table table NOUN fbem-11211 84 41 results result NOUN fbem-11211 84 42 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 84 43 the the DET fbem-11211 84 44 arima(2,1,3 arima(2,1,3 ADJ fbem-11211 84 45 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 84 46 model model NOUN fbem-11211 84 47 has have VERB fbem-11211 84 48 the the DET fbem-11211 84 49 lowest low ADJ fbem-11211 84 50 aic aic PROPN fbem-11211 84 51 value value NOUN fbem-11211 84 52 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 85 1 two two NUM fbem-11211 85 2 white white ADJ fbem-11211 85 3 noise noise NOUN fbem-11211 85 4 tests test NOUN fbem-11211 85 5 were be AUX fbem-11211 85 6 conducted conduct VERB fbem-11211 85 7 on on ADP fbem-11211 85 8 the the DET fbem-11211 85 9 residuals residual NOUN fbem-11211 85 10 of of ADP fbem-11211 85 11 this this DET fbem-11211 85 12 model model NOUN fbem-11211 85 13 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 85 14 one one NUM fbem-11211 85 15 for for ADP fbem-11211 85 16 the the DET fbem-11211 85 17 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 85 18 sequence sequence NOUN fbem-11211 85 19 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 85 20 another another PRON fbem-11211 85 21 for for ADP fbem-11211 85 22 the the DET fbem-11211 85 23 squared squared ADJ fbem-11211 85 24 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 85 25 sequence sequence NOUN fbem-11211 85 26 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 86 1 the the DET fbem-11211 86 2 results result NOUN fbem-11211 86 3 indicate indicate VERB fbem-11211 86 4 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 86 5 both both DET fbem-11211 86 6 p p NOUN fbem-11211 86 7 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 86 8 values value NOUN fbem-11211 86 9 are be AUX fbem-11211 86 10 greater great ADJ fbem-11211 86 11 than than ADP fbem-11211 86 12 0.05 0.05 NUM fbem-11211 86 13 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 86 14 suggesting suggest VERB fbem-11211 86 15 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 86 16 the the DET fbem-11211 86 17 residuals residual NOUN fbem-11211 86 18 conform conform VERB fbem-11211 86 19 to to ADP fbem-11211 86 20 the the DET fbem-11211 86 21 assumption assumption NOUN fbem-11211 86 22 of of ADP fbem-11211 86 23 white white ADJ fbem-11211 86 24 noise noise NOUN fbem-11211 86 25 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 87 1 this this PRON fbem-11211 87 2 implies imply VERB fbem-11211 87 3 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 87 4 there there PRON fbem-11211 87 5 is be VERB fbem-11211 87 6 no no DET fbem-11211 87 7 significant significant ADJ fbem-11211 87 8 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 87 9 or or CCONJ fbem-11211 87 10 heteroscedasticity heteroscedasticity NOUN fbem-11211 87 11 in in ADP fbem-11211 87 12 the the DET fbem-11211 87 13 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 87 14 sequence sequence NOUN fbem-11211 87 15 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 87 16 aligning align VERB fbem-11211 87 17 with with ADP fbem-11211 87 18 the the DET fbem-11211 87 19 model model NOUN fbem-11211 87 20 's 's PART fbem-11211 87 21 basic basic ADJ fbem-11211 87 22 assumptions assumption NOUN fbem-11211 87 23 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 88 1 furthermore furthermore ADV fbem-11211 88 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 88 3 an an DET fbem-11211 88 4 arch arch ADJ fbem-11211 88 5 test test NOUN fbem-11211 88 6 was be AUX fbem-11211 88 7 performed perform VERB fbem-11211 88 8 on on ADP fbem-11211 88 9 the the DET fbem-11211 88 10 standardized standardized ADJ fbem-11211 88 11 residuals residual NOUN fbem-11211 88 12 of of ADP fbem-11211 88 13 the the DET fbem-11211 88 14 arima(2,1,3 arima(2,1,3 ADJ fbem-11211 88 15 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 88 16 model model NOUN fbem-11211 88 17 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 89 1 the the DET fbem-11211 89 2 results result NOUN fbem-11211 89 3 in in ADP fbem-11211 89 4 table table NOUN fbem-11211 89 5 4 4 NUM fbem-11211 89 6 reveal reveal VERB fbem-11211 89 7 a a DET fbem-11211 89 8 p p NOUN fbem-11211 89 9 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 89 10 value value NOUN fbem-11211 89 11 significantly significantly ADV fbem-11211 89 12 smaller small ADJ fbem-11211 89 13 than than ADP fbem-11211 89 14 2.2Γ—10 2.2Γ—10 NUM fbem-11211 89 15 - - SYM fbem-11211 89 16 16 16 NUM fbem-11211 89 17 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 89 18 rejecting reject VERB fbem-11211 89 19 the the DET fbem-11211 89 20 hypothesis hypothesis NOUN fbem-11211 89 21 that that PRON fbem-11211 89 22 the the DET fbem-11211 89 23 squared squared ADJ fbem-11211 89 24 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 89 25 sequence sequence NOUN fbem-11211 89 26 is be AUX fbem-11211 89 27 white white ADJ fbem-11211 89 28 noise noise NOUN fbem-11211 89 29 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 90 1 this this PRON fbem-11211 90 2 indicates indicate VERB fbem-11211 90 3 the the DET fbem-11211 90 4 need need NOUN fbem-11211 90 5 to to PART fbem-11211 90 6 incorporate incorporate VERB fbem-11211 90 7 a a DET fbem-11211 90 8 conditional conditional ADJ fbem-11211 90 9 heteroscedasticity heteroscedasticity NOUN fbem-11211 90 10 model model NOUN fbem-11211 90 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 90 12 such such ADJ fbem-11211 90 13 as as ADP fbem-11211 90 14 the the DET fbem-11211 90 15 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 90 16 model model NOUN fbem-11211 90 17 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 91 1 considering consider VERB fbem-11211 91 2 the the DET fbem-11211 91 3 potential potential ADJ fbem-11211 91 4 instability instability NOUN fbem-11211 91 5 introduced introduce VERB fbem-11211 91 6 by by ADP fbem-11211 91 7 higher high ADJ fbem-11211 91 8 order order NOUN fbem-11211 91 9 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 91 10 models model NOUN fbem-11211 91 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 91 12 this this DET fbem-11211 91 13 study study NOUN fbem-11211 91 14 selects select NOUN fbem-11211 91 15 garch(1,1 garch(1,1 NOUN fbem-11211 91 16 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 91 17 to to PART fbem-11211 91 18 capture capture VERB fbem-11211 91 19 the the DET fbem-11211 91 20 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 91 21 dynamics dynamic NOUN fbem-11211 91 22 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 92 1 table table NOUN fbem-11211 92 2 4 4 NUM fbem-11211 92 3 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 92 4 arch arch ADJ fbem-11211 92 5 effect effect NOUN fbem-11211 92 6 test test NOUN fbem-11211 92 7 x x VERB fbem-11211 92 8 - - VERB fbem-11211 92 9 squared square VERB fbem-11211 92 10 p p NOUN fbem-11211 92 11 whether whether SCONJ fbem-11211 92 12 there there PRON fbem-11211 92 13 is be VERB fbem-11211 92 14 an an DET fbem-11211 92 15 arch arch ADJ fbem-11211 92 16 effect effect NOUN fbem-11211 92 17 72.868 72.868 NUM fbem-11211 92 18 p p ADJ fbem-11211 92 19 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 92 20 value<<2.2Γ—10 value<<2.2Γ—10 NOUN fbem-11211 92 21 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 92 22 16 16 NUM fbem-11211 92 23 yes yes NOUN fbem-11211 92 24 4.7 4.7 NUM fbem-11211 92 25 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 93 1 model model PROPN fbem-11211 93 2 parameter parameter PROPN fbem-11211 93 3 estimation estimation NOUN fbem-11211 93 4 for for ADP fbem-11211 93 5 the the DET fbem-11211 93 6 arima(2,1,3)-garch(1,1 arima(2,1,3)-garch(1,1 NOUN fbem-11211 93 7 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 93 8 model model NOUN fbem-11211 93 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 93 10 the the DET fbem-11211 93 11 estimated estimate VERB fbem-11211 93 12 values value NOUN fbem-11211 93 13 of of ADP fbem-11211 93 14 the the DET fbem-11211 93 15 parameters parameter NOUN fbem-11211 93 16 are be AUX fbem-11211 93 17 as as SCONJ fbem-11211 93 18 follows follow VERB fbem-11211 93 19 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 93 20 table table NOUN fbem-11211 93 21 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 93 22 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 93 23 parameter parameter PROPN fbem-11211 93 24 estimation estimation NOUN fbem-11211 93 25 results result NOUN fbem-11211 93 26 of of ADP fbem-11211 93 27 arima(2,1,3)-garch(1,1 arima(2,1,3)-garch(1,1 NOUN fbem-11211 93 28 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 93 29 model model NOUN fbem-11211 93 30 parameter parameter PROPN fbem-11211 93 31 estimate estimate NOUN fbem-11211 93 32 mu mu PROPN fbem-11211 93 33 3675.933 3675.933 PROPN fbem-11211 93 34 ar1 ar1 PROPN fbem-11211 93 35 0.02322135 0.02322135 NUM fbem-11211 93 36 ar2 ar2 PROPN fbem-11211 93 37 0.9711691 0.9711691 NUM fbem-11211 93 38 ma1 ma1 NOUN fbem-11211 93 39 0.9743554 0.9743554 NUM fbem-11211 93 40 omega omega NOUN fbem-11211 93 41 17.21428 17.21428 NUM fbem-11211 93 42 alpha1 alpha1 NOUN fbem-11211 93 43 0.08904022 0.08904022 NUM fbem-11211 93 44 beta1 beta1 NOUN fbem-11211 93 45 0.9099598 0.9099598 NUM fbem-11211 93 46 4.8 4.8 NUM fbem-11211 93 47 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 94 1 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 94 2 test test NOUN fbem-11211 94 3 the the DET fbem-11211 94 4 lm lm PROPN fbem-11211 94 5 test test NOUN fbem-11211 94 6 was be AUX fbem-11211 94 7 conducted conduct VERB fbem-11211 94 8 on on ADP fbem-11211 94 9 the the DET fbem-11211 94 10 obtained obtain VERB fbem-11211 94 11 arimagarch arimagarch ADJ fbem-11211 94 12 model model NOUN fbem-11211 94 13 to to PART fbem-11211 94 14 examine examine VERB fbem-11211 94 15 the the DET fbem-11211 94 16 independence independence NOUN fbem-11211 94 17 of of ADP fbem-11211 94 18 residuals residual NOUN fbem-11211 94 19 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 95 1 the the DET fbem-11211 95 2 results result NOUN fbem-11211 95 3 are be AUX fbem-11211 95 4 shown show VERB fbem-11211 95 5 in in ADP fbem-11211 95 6 table table NOUN fbem-11211 95 7 6 6 NUM fbem-11211 96 1 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 96 2 tablre tablre ADJ fbem-11211 96 3 6 6 NUM fbem-11211 96 4 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 97 1 lm lm PROPN fbem-11211 97 2 test test NOUN fbem-11211 97 3 results result NOUN fbem-11211 97 4 of of ADP fbem-11211 97 5 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 97 6 sequences sequence NOUN fbem-11211 97 7 lm lm X fbem-11211 97 8 statistics statistic NOUN fbem-11211 97 9 p p VERB fbem-11211 97 10 0.002427 0.002427 NUM fbem-11211 97 11 0.9607 0.9607 NUM fbem-11211 97 12 based base VERB fbem-11211 97 13 on on ADP fbem-11211 97 14 the the DET fbem-11211 97 15 p p NOUN fbem-11211 97 16 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 97 17 values value NOUN fbem-11211 98 1 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 98 2 we we PRON fbem-11211 98 3 can can AUX fbem-11211 98 4 not not PART fbem-11211 98 5 reject reject VERB fbem-11211 98 6 the the DET fbem-11211 98 7 null null ADJ fbem-11211 98 8 hypothesis hypothesis NOUN fbem-11211 98 9 of of ADP fbem-11211 98 10 no no DET fbem-11211 98 11 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 98 12 in in ADP fbem-11211 98 13 the the DET fbem-11211 98 14 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 98 15 sequence sequence NOUN fbem-11211 98 16 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 99 1 hence hence ADV fbem-11211 99 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 99 3 we we PRON fbem-11211 99 4 can can AUX fbem-11211 99 5 conclude conclude VERB fbem-11211 99 6 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 99 7 the the DET fbem-11211 99 8 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 99 9 model model NOUN fbem-11211 99 10 in in ADP fbem-11211 99 11 this this DET fbem-11211 99 12 case case NOUN fbem-11211 99 13 is be AUX fbem-11211 99 14 adequate adequate ADJ fbem-11211 99 15 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 99 16 the the DET fbem-11211 99 17 residuals residual NOUN fbem-11211 99 18 do do AUX fbem-11211 99 19 not not PART fbem-11211 99 20 show show VERB fbem-11211 99 21 significant significant ADJ fbem-11211 99 22 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 99 23 over over ADP fbem-11211 99 24 time time NOUN fbem-11211 99 25 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 100 1 4.9 4.9 NUM fbem-11211 100 2 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 100 3 forecast forecast NOUN fbem-11211 100 4 results result NOUN fbem-11211 100 5 using use VERB fbem-11211 100 6 the the DET fbem-11211 100 7 established establish VERB fbem-11211 100 8 arima(2,1,3)-garch(1,1 arima(2,1,3)-garch(1,1 NOUN fbem-11211 100 9 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 100 10 model model NOUN fbem-11211 100 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 100 12 the the DET fbem-11211 100 13 closing close VERB fbem-11211 100 14 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 100 15 of of ADP fbem-11211 100 16 the the DET fbem-11211 100 17 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 100 18 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 100 19 index index NOUN fbem-11211 100 20 are be AUX fbem-11211 100 21 predicted predict VERB fbem-11211 100 22 for for ADP fbem-11211 100 23 the the DET fbem-11211 100 24 next next ADJ fbem-11211 100 25 20 20 NUM fbem-11211 100 26 days day NOUN fbem-11211 100 27 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 101 1 the the DET fbem-11211 101 2 results result NOUN fbem-11211 101 3 are be AUX fbem-11211 101 4 shown show VERB fbem-11211 101 5 in in ADP fbem-11211 101 6 table table NOUN fbem-11211 101 7 7 7 NUM fbem-11211 101 8 . . X fbem-11211 101 9 53 53 NUM fbem-11211 101 10 table table NOUN fbem-11211 101 11 7 7 NUM fbem-11211 101 12 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 101 13 forecast forecast NOUN fbem-11211 101 14 results result NOUN fbem-11211 101 15 of of ADP fbem-11211 101 16 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 101 17 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 101 18 index index NOUN fbem-11211 101 19 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 101 20 price price NOUN fbem-11211 101 21 using use VERB fbem-11211 101 22 arima(2,1,3)-garch(1,1 arima(2,1,3)-garch(1,1 NOUN fbem-11211 101 23 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 101 24 number number NOUN fbem-11211 101 25 date date NOUN fbem-11211 101 26 actual actual ADJ fbem-11211 101 27 value value NOUN fbem-11211 101 28 predicted predict VERB fbem-11211 101 29 value value NOUN fbem-11211 101 30 relative relative ADJ fbem-11211 101 31 error error NOUN fbem-11211 101 32 1 1 NUM fbem-11211 101 33 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 101 34 - - SYM fbem-11211 101 35 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 101 36 - - SYM fbem-11211 101 37 4 4 NUM fbem-11211 101 38 4030.247 4030.247 NUM fbem-11211 101 39 4028.013 4028.013 NUM fbem-11211 101 40 -0.000554388 -0.000554388 ADP fbem-11211 102 1 2 2 NUM fbem-11211 102 2 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 102 3 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 4 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 102 5 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 6 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 102 7 4016.877 4016.877 NUM fbem-11211 102 8 4027.08 4027.08 NUM fbem-11211 102 9 0.002539897 0.002539897 NUM fbem-11211 102 10 3 3 NUM fbem-11211 102 11 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 102 12 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 13 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 102 14 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 15 8 8 NUM fbem-11211 102 16 4062.662 4062.662 NUM fbem-11211 102 17 4026.016 4026.016 NUM fbem-11211 102 18 -0.009020266 -0.009020266 VERB fbem-11211 102 19 4 4 NUM fbem-11211 102 20 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 102 21 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 22 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 102 23 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 24 9 9 NUM fbem-11211 102 25 4027.875 4027.875 NUM fbem-11211 102 26 4025.085 4025.085 NUM fbem-11211 102 27 -0.000692679 -0.000692679 NOUN fbem-11211 102 28 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 102 29 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 102 30 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 31 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 102 32 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 33 10 10 NUM fbem-11211 102 34 3996.869 3996.869 NUM fbem-11211 102 35 4024.031 4024.031 NUM fbem-11211 102 36 0.006795614 0.006795614 NUM fbem-11211 102 37 6 6 NUM fbem-11211 102 38 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 102 39 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 40 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 102 41 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 42 11 11 NUM fbem-11211 102 43 3990.664 3990.664 NUM fbem-11211 102 44 4023.102 4023.102 NUM fbem-11211 102 45 0.008128622 0.008128622 NUM fbem-11211 102 46 7 7 NUM fbem-11211 102 47 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 102 48 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 49 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 102 50 - - SYM fbem-11211 102 51 12 12 NUM fbem-11211 103 1 3937.762 3937.762 NUM fbem-11211 103 2 4022.056 4022.056 NUM fbem-11211 103 3 0.021406639 0.021406639 NUM fbem-11211 103 4 8 8 NUM fbem-11211 103 5 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 103 6 - - SYM fbem-11211 103 7 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 103 8 - - SYM fbem-11211 103 9 15 15 NUM fbem-11211 103 10 3998.887 3998.887 NUM fbem-11211 104 1 4021.131 4021.131 NUM fbem-11211 104 2 0.005562384 0.005562384 NUM fbem-11211 104 3 9 9 NUM fbem-11211 104 4 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 5 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 6 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 7 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 8 16 16 NUM fbem-11211 104 9 3978.205 3978.205 NUM fbem-11211 104 10 4020.093 4020.093 NUM fbem-11211 104 11 0.010529359 0.010529359 NUM fbem-11211 104 12 10 10 NUM fbem-11211 104 13 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 14 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 15 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 16 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 17 17 17 NUM fbem-11211 104 18 3960.165 3960.165 NUM fbem-11211 104 19 4019.17 4019.17 NUM fbem-11211 104 20 0.014899646 0.014899646 NUM fbem-11211 104 21 11 11 NUM fbem-11211 104 22 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 23 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 24 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 25 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 26 18 18 NUM fbem-11211 104 27 3956.07 3956.07 NUM fbem-11211 104 28 4018.141 4018.141 NUM fbem-11211 104 29 0.015690124 0.015690124 NUM fbem-11211 104 30 12 12 NUM fbem-11211 104 31 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 32 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 33 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 34 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 35 19 19 NUM fbem-11211 104 36 3944.54 3944.54 NUM fbem-11211 104 37 4017.221 4017.221 NUM fbem-11211 104 38 0.018425585 0.018425585 NUM fbem-11211 104 39 13 13 NUM fbem-11211 104 40 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 41 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 42 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 43 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 44 22 22 NUM fbem-11211 104 45 3969.328 3969.328 NUM fbem-11211 104 46 4016.2 4016.2 NUM fbem-11211 104 47 0.011808704 0.011808704 NUM fbem-11211 104 48 14 14 NUM fbem-11211 104 49 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 50 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 51 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 52 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 53 23 23 NUM fbem-11211 104 54 3913.188 3913.188 PROPN fbem-11211 104 55 4015.283 4015.283 NUM fbem-11211 104 56 0.026089825 0.026089825 NUM fbem-11211 104 57 15 15 NUM fbem-11211 104 58 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 59 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 60 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 61 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 62 24 24 NUM fbem-11211 104 63 3859.093 3859.093 NUM fbem-11211 104 64 4014.27 4014.27 NUM fbem-11211 104 65 0.040210676 0.040210676 NUM fbem-11211 104 66 16 16 NUM fbem-11211 104 67 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 68 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 69 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 70 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 71 25 25 NUM fbem-11211 104 72 3850.5 3850.5 NUM fbem-11211 104 73 4013.355 4013.355 NUM fbem-11211 104 74 0.042294743 0.042294743 NUM fbem-11211 104 75 17 17 NUM fbem-11211 104 76 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 77 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 78 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 79 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 80 26 26 NUM fbem-11211 104 81 3850.951 3850.951 NUM fbem-11211 104 82 4012.351 4012.351 NUM fbem-11211 104 83 0.041911723 0.041911723 NUM fbem-11211 104 84 18 18 NUM fbem-11211 104 85 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 86 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 87 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 88 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 89 29 29 NUM fbem-11211 104 90 3833.942 3833.942 NUM fbem-11211 104 91 4011.439 4011.439 PROPN fbem-11211 104 92 0.046296422 0.046296422 NUM fbem-11211 104 93 19 19 NUM fbem-11211 104 94 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 104 95 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 96 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 104 97 - - SYM fbem-11211 104 98 30 30 NUM fbem-11211 105 1 3837.753 3837.753 NUM fbem-11211 105 2 4010.443 4010.443 NOUN fbem-11211 105 3 0.044997598 0.044997598 NUM fbem-11211 105 4 20 20 NUM fbem-11211 105 5 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 105 6 - - SYM fbem-11211 105 7 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 105 8 - - SYM fbem-11211 105 9 31 31 NUM fbem-11211 105 10 3798.543 3798.543 NUM fbem-11211 105 11 4009.534 4009.534 NUM fbem-11211 105 12 0.055545185 0.055545185 NUM fbem-11211 105 13 to to PART fbem-11211 105 14 calculate calculate VERB fbem-11211 105 15 the the DET fbem-11211 105 16 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 105 17 of of ADP fbem-11211 105 18 the the DET fbem-11211 105 19 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 105 20 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 105 21 we we PRON fbem-11211 105 22 can can AUX fbem-11211 105 23 calculate calculate VERB fbem-11211 105 24 the the DET fbem-11211 105 25 mean mean ADJ fbem-11211 105 26 absolute absolute ADJ fbem-11211 105 27 percentage percentage NOUN fbem-11211 105 28 error error NOUN fbem-11211 105 29 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 105 30 mape mape NOUN fbem-11211 105 31 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 105 32 based base VERB fbem-11211 105 33 on on ADP fbem-11211 105 34 the the DET fbem-11211 105 35 given give VERB fbem-11211 105 36 values value NOUN fbem-11211 105 37 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 106 1 using use VERB fbem-11211 106 2 the the DET fbem-11211 106 3 given give VERB fbem-11211 106 4 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 106 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 106 6 we we PRON fbem-11211 106 7 can can AUX fbem-11211 106 8 calculate calculate VERB fbem-11211 106 9 the the DET fbem-11211 106 10 mape mape NOUN fbem-11211 106 11 is be AUX fbem-11211 106 12 approximately approximately ADV fbem-11211 106 13 2.0682 2.0682 NUM fbem-11211 106 14 % % NOUN fbem-11211 106 15 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 107 1 on on ADP fbem-11211 107 2 the the DET fbem-11211 107 3 other other ADJ fbem-11211 107 4 hand hand NOUN fbem-11211 107 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 107 6 using use VERB fbem-11211 107 7 only only ADV fbem-11211 107 8 the the DET fbem-11211 107 9 arima(2,1,3 arima(2,1,3 PROPN fbem-11211 107 10 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 107 11 model model NOUN fbem-11211 107 12 to to PART fbem-11211 107 13 predict predict VERB fbem-11211 107 14 the the DET fbem-11211 107 15 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 107 16 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 107 17 of of ADP fbem-11211 107 18 the the DET fbem-11211 107 19 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 107 20 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 107 21 index index NOUN fbem-11211 107 22 for for ADP fbem-11211 107 23 20 20 NUM fbem-11211 107 24 days day NOUN fbem-11211 107 25 yields yield VERB fbem-11211 107 26 the the DET fbem-11211 107 27 results result NOUN fbem-11211 107 28 shown show VERB fbem-11211 107 29 in in ADP fbem-11211 107 30 table table NOUN fbem-11211 107 31 8 8 NUM fbem-11211 107 32 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 107 33 table table NOUN fbem-11211 107 34 8 8 NUM fbem-11211 107 35 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 107 36 forecast forecast NOUN fbem-11211 107 37 results result NOUN fbem-11211 107 38 of of ADP fbem-11211 107 39 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 107 40 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 107 41 index index NOUN fbem-11211 107 42 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 107 43 price price NOUN fbem-11211 107 44 using use VERB fbem-11211 107 45 arima(2,1,3 arima(2,1,3 ADJ fbem-11211 107 46 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 107 47 number number NOUN fbem-11211 107 48 date date NOUN fbem-11211 107 49 actual actual ADJ fbem-11211 107 50 value value NOUN fbem-11211 107 51 predicted predict VERB fbem-11211 107 52 value value NOUN fbem-11211 107 53 relative relative ADJ fbem-11211 107 54 error error NOUN fbem-11211 107 55 1 1 NUM fbem-11211 107 56 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 107 57 - - SYM fbem-11211 107 58 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 107 59 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 107 60 04 04 NUM fbem-11211 107 61 4030.247 4030.247 NUM fbem-11211 107 62 4028.121 4028.121 NUM fbem-11211 107 63 -0.0005274776 -0.0005274776 NOUN fbem-11211 107 64 2 2 NUM fbem-11211 107 65 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 107 66 - - SYM fbem-11211 107 67 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 107 68 - - SYM fbem-11211 107 69 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 107 70 4016.877 4016.877 NUM fbem-11211 108 1 4029.128 4029.128 NUM fbem-11211 109 1 0.0030498446 0.0030498446 NUM fbem-11211 109 2 3 3 NUM fbem-11211 109 3 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 109 4 - - SYM fbem-11211 109 5 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 109 6 - - SYM fbem-11211 109 7 08 08 NUM fbem-11211 109 8 4062.662 4062.662 NUM fbem-11211 109 9 4033.084 4033.084 NUM fbem-11211 109 10 -0.0072804594 -0.0072804594 NOUN fbem-11211 109 11 4 4 NUM fbem-11211 109 12 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 109 13 - - SYM fbem-11211 109 14 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 109 15 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 109 16 09 09 NUM fbem-11211 109 17 4027.875 4027.875 PROPN fbem-11211 110 1 4032.607 4032.607 NUM fbem-11211 110 2 0.0011746892 0.0011746892 NUM fbem-11211 110 3 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 110 4 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 110 5 - - SYM fbem-11211 110 6 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 110 7 - - SYM fbem-11211 110 8 10 10 NUM fbem-11211 110 9 3996.869 3996.869 NUM fbem-11211 110 10 4028.766 4028.766 NUM fbem-11211 110 11 0.0079802605 0.0079802605 NUM fbem-11211 110 12 6 6 NUM fbem-11211 110 13 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 110 14 - - SYM fbem-11211 110 15 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 110 16 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 110 17 11 11 NUM fbem-11211 110 18 3990.664 3990.664 NUM fbem-11211 110 19 4028.751 4028.751 NUM fbem-11211 110 20 0.0095440335 0.0095440335 NUM fbem-11211 110 21 7 7 NUM fbem-11211 110 22 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 110 23 - - SYM fbem-11211 110 24 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 110 25 - - SYM fbem-11211 110 26 12 12 NUM fbem-11211 110 27 3937.762 3937.762 NUM fbem-11211 110 28 4032.422 4032.422 NUM fbem-11211 110 29 0.0240389666 0.0240389666 NUM fbem-11211 110 30 8 8 NUM fbem-11211 110 31 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 110 32 - - SYM fbem-11211 110 33 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 110 34 - - SYM fbem-11211 110 35 15 15 NUM fbem-11211 110 36 3998.887 3998.887 NUM fbem-11211 111 1 4032.887 4032.887 NUM fbem-11211 111 2 0.0085022153 0.0085022153 NUM fbem-11211 111 3 9 9 NUM fbem-11211 111 4 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 5 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 6 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 7 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 8 16 16 NUM fbem-11211 111 9 3978.205 3978.205 NUM fbem-11211 111 10 4029.433 4029.433 NUM fbem-11211 111 11 0.0128771312 0.0128771312 NUM fbem-11211 111 12 10 10 NUM fbem-11211 111 13 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 14 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 15 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 16 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 17 17 17 NUM fbem-11211 111 18 3960.165 3960.165 NUM fbem-11211 111 19 4028.565 4028.565 NUM fbem-11211 111 20 0.0172720629 0.0172720629 NUM fbem-11211 111 21 11 11 NUM fbem-11211 111 22 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 23 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 24 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 25 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 26 18 18 NUM fbem-11211 111 27 3956.070 3956.070 NUM fbem-11211 111 28 4031.761 4031.761 NUM fbem-11211 111 29 0.0191327790 0.0191327790 NUM fbem-11211 111 30 12 12 NUM fbem-11211 111 31 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 32 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 33 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 34 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 35 19 19 NUM fbem-11211 111 36 3944.540 3944.540 NUM fbem-11211 111 37 4032.983 4032.983 NUM fbem-11211 111 38 0.0224215086 0.0224215086 NUM fbem-11211 111 39 13 13 NUM fbem-11211 111 40 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 41 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 42 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 43 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 111 44 22 22 NUM fbem-11211 111 45 3969.328 3969.328 NUM fbem-11211 111 46 4030.077 4030.077 PROPN fbem-11211 111 47 0.0153047655 0.0153047655 NUM fbem-11211 111 48 14 14 NUM fbem-11211 111 49 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 50 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 51 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 52 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 53 23 23 NUM fbem-11211 111 54 3913.188 3913.188 PROPN fbem-11211 111 55 4028.552 4028.552 NUM fbem-11211 111 56 0.0294808265 0.0294808265 NUM fbem-11211 111 57 15 15 NUM fbem-11211 111 58 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 59 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 60 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 61 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 111 62 24 24 NUM fbem-11211 111 63 3859.093 3859.093 NUM fbem-11211 111 64 4031.143 4031.143 NOUN fbem-11211 111 65 0.0445829530 0.0445829530 NUM fbem-11211 111 66 16 16 NUM fbem-11211 111 67 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 68 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 69 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 70 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 71 25 25 NUM fbem-11211 111 72 3850.500 3850.500 NUM fbem-11211 111 73 4032.920 4032.920 NUM fbem-11211 111 74 0.0473756466 0.0473756466 NUM fbem-11211 111 75 17 17 NUM fbem-11211 111 76 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 77 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 78 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 79 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 80 26 26 NUM fbem-11211 111 81 3850.951 3850.951 PROPN fbem-11211 111 82 4030.660 4030.660 NUM fbem-11211 111 83 0.0466660910 0.0466660910 NUM fbem-11211 111 84 18 18 NUM fbem-11211 111 85 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 86 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 87 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 88 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 111 89 29 29 NUM fbem-11211 111 90 3833.942 3833.942 NUM fbem-11211 111 91 4028.684 4028.684 NUM fbem-11211 111 92 0.0507943765 0.0507943765 NUM fbem-11211 111 93 19 19 NUM fbem-11211 111 94 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 95 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 96 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 97 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 98 30 30 NUM fbem-11211 111 99 3837.753 3837.753 NUM fbem-11211 111 100 4030.602 4030.602 NUM fbem-11211 111 101 0.0502505778 0.0502505778 NUM fbem-11211 111 102 20 20 NUM fbem-11211 111 103 2023 2023 NUM fbem-11211 111 104 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 105 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 111 106 - - SYM fbem-11211 111 107 31 31 NUM fbem-11211 111 108 3798.543 3798.543 NUM fbem-11211 111 109 4032.727 4032.727 PROPN fbem-11211 111 110 0.0616508618 0.0616508618 NUM fbem-11211 111 111 the the DET fbem-11211 111 112 mape mape NOUN fbem-11211 111 113 for for ADP fbem-11211 111 114 the the DET fbem-11211 111 115 given give VERB fbem-11211 111 116 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 111 117 is be AUX fbem-11211 111 118 approximately approximately ADV fbem-11211 111 119 2.4833 2.4833 NUM fbem-11211 111 120 % % NOUN fbem-11211 111 121 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 112 1 by by ADP fbem-11211 112 2 comparing compare VERB fbem-11211 112 3 the the DET fbem-11211 112 4 results result NOUN fbem-11211 112 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 112 6 we we PRON fbem-11211 112 7 can can AUX fbem-11211 112 8 see see VERB fbem-11211 112 9 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 112 10 the the DET fbem-11211 112 11 arimagarch arimagarch ADJ fbem-11211 112 12 model model NOUN fbem-11211 112 13 achieves achieve VERB fbem-11211 112 14 higher high ADJ fbem-11211 112 15 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 112 16 in in ADP fbem-11211 112 17 predicting predict VERB fbem-11211 112 18 the the DET fbem-11211 112 19 closing close VERB fbem-11211 112 20 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 112 21 of of ADP fbem-11211 112 22 the the DET fbem-11211 112 23 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 112 24 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 112 25 index index NOUN fbem-11211 112 26 compared compare VERB fbem-11211 112 27 to to ADP fbem-11211 112 28 using use VERB fbem-11211 112 29 the the DET fbem-11211 112 30 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 112 31 model model NOUN fbem-11211 112 32 alone alone ADV fbem-11211 112 33 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 113 1 this this PRON fbem-11211 113 2 indicates indicate VERB fbem-11211 113 3 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 113 4 the the DET fbem-11211 113 5 trained train VERB fbem-11211 113 6 model model NOUN fbem-11211 113 7 is be AUX fbem-11211 113 8 capable capable ADJ fbem-11211 113 9 of of ADP fbem-11211 113 10 effectively effectively ADV fbem-11211 113 11 forecasting forecast VERB fbem-11211 113 12 the the DET fbem-11211 113 13 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 113 14 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 113 15 of of ADP fbem-11211 113 16 the the DET fbem-11211 113 17 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 113 18 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 113 19 index index NOUN fbem-11211 113 20 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 113 21 highlighting highlight VERB fbem-11211 113 22 the the DET fbem-11211 113 23 potential potential ADJ fbem-11211 113 24 application application NOUN fbem-11211 113 25 of of ADP fbem-11211 113 26 the the DET fbem-11211 113 27 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 113 28 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 113 29 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 113 30 model model NOUN fbem-11211 113 31 in in ADP fbem-11211 113 32 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 113 33 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 113 34 prediction prediction NOUN fbem-11211 113 35 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 114 1 5 5 X fbem-11211 114 2 . . X fbem-11211 114 3 conclusion conclusion NOUN fbem-11211 114 4 this this DET fbem-11211 114 5 study study NOUN fbem-11211 114 6 utilized utilize VERB fbem-11211 114 7 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 114 8 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 114 9 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 114 10 modeling modeling NOUN fbem-11211 114 11 on on ADP fbem-11211 114 12 the the DET fbem-11211 114 13 csi csi ADJ fbem-11211 114 14 300 300 NUM fbem-11211 114 15 index index NOUN fbem-11211 114 16 time time NOUN fbem-11211 114 17 series series PROPN fbem-11211 114 18 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 114 19 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 114 20 performed perform VERB fbem-11211 114 21 model model NOUN fbem-11211 114 22 evaluation evaluation NOUN fbem-11211 114 23 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 114 24 prediction prediction NOUN fbem-11211 114 25 analysis analysis NOUN fbem-11211 114 26 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 115 1 the the DET fbem-11211 115 2 durbin durbin PROPN fbem-11211 115 3 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 115 4 watson watson NOUN fbem-11211 115 5 test test NOUN fbem-11211 115 6 revealed reveal VERB fbem-11211 115 7 positive positive ADJ fbem-11211 115 8 autocorrelation autocorrelation NOUN fbem-11211 115 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 115 10 while while SCONJ fbem-11211 115 11 the the DET fbem-11211 115 12 adf adf PROPN fbem-11211 115 13 test test NOUN fbem-11211 115 14 indicated indicate VERB fbem-11211 115 15 possible possible ADJ fbem-11211 115 16 non non ADJ fbem-11211 115 17 - - NOUN fbem-11211 115 18 stationarity stationarity NOUN fbem-11211 115 19 of of ADP fbem-11211 115 20 the the DET fbem-11211 115 21 series series NOUN fbem-11211 115 22 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 116 1 the the DET fbem-11211 116 2 arima(2,1,3 arima(2,1,3 PROPN fbem-11211 116 3 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 116 4 model model NOUN fbem-11211 116 5 was be AUX fbem-11211 116 6 selected select VERB fbem-11211 116 7 for for ADP fbem-11211 116 8 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 116 9 after after ADP fbem-11211 116 10 model model NOUN fbem-11211 116 11 selection selection NOUN fbem-11211 116 12 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 117 1 both both CCONJ fbem-11211 117 2 the the DET fbem-11211 117 3 white white PROPN fbem-11211 117 4 noise noise PROPN fbem-11211 117 5 test test NOUN fbem-11211 117 6 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 117 7 lm lm PROPN fbem-11211 117 8 test test NOUN fbem-11211 117 9 confirmed confirm VERB fbem-11211 117 10 that that SCONJ fbem-11211 117 11 the the DET fbem-11211 117 12 residual residual ADJ fbem-11211 117 13 sequence sequence NOUN fbem-11211 117 14 of of ADP fbem-11211 117 15 the the DET fbem-11211 117 16 model model NOUN fbem-11211 117 17 met meet VERB fbem-11211 117 18 the the DET fbem-11211 117 19 assumptions assumption NOUN fbem-11211 117 20 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 117 21 54 54 NUM fbem-11211 117 22 required require VERB fbem-11211 117 23 no no DET fbem-11211 117 24 further further ADJ fbem-11211 117 25 adjustments adjustment NOUN fbem-11211 117 26 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 118 1 by by ADP fbem-11211 118 2 predicting predict VERB fbem-11211 118 3 the the DET fbem-11211 118 4 test test NOUN fbem-11211 118 5 data datum NOUN fbem-11211 118 6 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 118 7 we we PRON fbem-11211 118 8 obtained obtain VERB fbem-11211 118 9 forecasted forecast VERB fbem-11211 118 10 closing closing NOUN fbem-11211 118 11 prices price NOUN fbem-11211 118 12 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 118 13 evaluated evaluate VERB fbem-11211 118 14 their their PRON fbem-11211 118 15 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 118 16 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 118 17 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 118 18 compared compare VERB fbem-11211 118 19 them they PRON fbem-11211 118 20 with with ADP fbem-11211 118 21 the the DET fbem-11211 118 22 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 118 23 model model NOUN fbem-11211 118 24 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 119 1 the the DET fbem-11211 119 2 comprehensive comprehensive ADJ fbem-11211 119 3 findings finding NOUN fbem-11211 119 4 demonstrate demonstrate VERB fbem-11211 119 5 the the DET fbem-11211 119 6 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 119 7 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 119 8 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 119 9 model model NOUN fbem-11211 119 10 's 's PART fbem-11211 119 11 accuracy accuracy NOUN fbem-11211 119 12 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 119 13 feasibility feasibility NOUN fbem-11211 119 14 in in ADP fbem-11211 119 15 short short ADJ fbem-11211 119 16 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 119 17 term term NOUN fbem-11211 119 18 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 119 19 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 119 20 providing provide VERB fbem-11211 119 21 investors investor NOUN fbem-11211 119 22 with with ADP fbem-11211 119 23 valuable valuable ADJ fbem-11211 119 24 reference reference NOUN fbem-11211 119 25 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 119 26 decisionmaking decisionmake VERB fbem-11211 119 27 guidance guidance NOUN fbem-11211 119 28 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 120 1 references reference NOUN fbem-11211 120 2 [ [ X fbem-11211 120 3 1 1 NUM fbem-11211 120 4 ] ] X fbem-11211 120 5 zha zha PROPN fbem-11211 120 6 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 120 7 z. z. PROPN fbem-11211 120 8 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 120 9 1999 1999 NUM fbem-11211 120 10 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 120 11 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 121 1 statistical statistical ADJ fbem-11211 121 2 analysis analysis NOUN fbem-11211 121 3 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 121 4 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 121 5 of of ADP fbem-11211 121 6 the the DET fbem-11211 121 7 shanghai shanghai PROPN fbem-11211 121 8 stock stock PROPN fbem-11211 121 9 composite composite PROPN fbem-11211 121 10 index index NOUN fbem-11211 121 11 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 122 1 journal journal PROPN fbem-11211 122 2 of of ADP fbem-11211 122 3 shanghai shanghai PROPN fbem-11211 122 4 maritime maritime PROPN fbem-11211 122 5 university university PROPN fbem-11211 122 6 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 122 7 04:82 04:82 NUM fbem-11211 122 8 - - SYM fbem-11211 122 9 89 89 NUM fbem-11211 122 10 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 123 1 [ [ X fbem-11211 123 2 2 2 NUM fbem-11211 123 3 ] ] X fbem-11211 123 4 hui hui PROPN fbem-11211 123 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 123 6 x. x. PROPN fbem-11211 123 7 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 123 8 liu liu PROPN fbem-11211 123 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 123 10 h. h. PROPN fbem-11211 123 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 123 12 hu hu PROPN fbem-11211 123 13 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 123 14 w. w. PROPN fbem-11211 123 15 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 123 16 et et PROPN fbem-11211 123 17 al al PROPN fbem-11211 123 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 123 19 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 123 20 2003 2003 NUM fbem-11211 123 21 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 123 22 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 124 1 forecasting forecast VERB fbem-11211 124 2 rmb rmb PROPN fbem-11211 124 3 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 124 4 usd usd NOUN fbem-11211 124 5 exchange exchange NOUN fbem-11211 124 6 rate rate NOUN fbem-11211 124 7 based base VERB fbem-11211 124 8 on on ADP fbem-11211 124 9 time time NOUN fbem-11211 124 10 series series PROPN fbem-11211 124 11 garch garch PROPN fbem-11211 124 12 model model PROPN fbem-11211 124 13 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 125 1 financial financial ADJ fbem-11211 125 2 research research NOUN fbem-11211 125 3 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 125 4 05 05 NUM fbem-11211 125 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 125 6 99 99 NUM fbem-11211 125 7 - - SYM fbem-11211 125 8 105 105 NUM fbem-11211 125 9 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 126 1 [ [ X fbem-11211 126 2 3 3 NUM fbem-11211 126 3 ] ] X fbem-11211 126 4 liu liu PROPN fbem-11211 126 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 126 6 y. y. PROPN fbem-11211 126 7 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 126 8 xing xing PROPN fbem-11211 126 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 126 10 w. w. PROPN fbem-11211 126 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 126 12 ding ding PROPN fbem-11211 126 13 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 126 14 l. l. PROPN fbem-11211 126 15 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 126 16 et et PROPN fbem-11211 126 17 al al PROPN fbem-11211 126 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 127 1 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 127 2 2012 2012 NUM fbem-11211 127 3 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 127 4 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 128 1 spot spot NOUN fbem-11211 128 2 electricity electricity NOUN fbem-11211 128 3 price price NOUN fbem-11211 128 4 forecasting forecasting NOUN fbem-11211 128 5 based base VERB fbem-11211 128 6 on on ADP fbem-11211 128 7 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 128 8 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 128 9 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 128 10 model model NOUN fbem-11211 128 11 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 129 1 energy energy NOUN fbem-11211 129 2 technology technology NOUN fbem-11211 129 3 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 129 4 economics economic NOUN fbem-11211 129 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 129 6 24(02 24(02 NUM fbem-11211 129 7 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 129 8 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 129 9 59 59 NUM fbem-11211 129 10 - - SYM fbem-11211 129 11 63 63 NUM fbem-11211 129 12 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 130 1 [ [ X fbem-11211 130 2 4 4 NUM fbem-11211 130 3 ] ] X fbem-11211 130 4 engle engle PROPN fbem-11211 130 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 130 6 r. r. PROPN fbem-11211 130 7 f. f. PROPN fbem-11211 130 8 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 130 9 1982 1982 NUM fbem-11211 130 10 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 130 11 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 131 1 autoregressive autoregressive ADJ fbem-11211 131 2 conditional conditional ADJ fbem-11211 131 3 heteroskedasticity heteroskedasticity NOUN fbem-11211 131 4 with with ADP fbem-11211 131 5 estimates estimate NOUN fbem-11211 131 6 of of ADP fbem-11211 131 7 the the DET fbem-11211 131 8 variance variance NOUN fbem-11211 131 9 of of ADP fbem-11211 131 10 united united PROPN fbem-11211 131 11 kingdom kingdom PROPN fbem-11211 131 12 inflation inflation NOUN fbem-11211 131 13 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 132 1 econometrica econometrica PROPN fbem-11211 132 2 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 132 3 50(4 50(4 NUM fbem-11211 132 4 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 132 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 132 6 987 987 NUM fbem-11211 132 7 - - SYM fbem-11211 132 8 1007 1007 NUM fbem-11211 132 9 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 133 1 [ [ X fbem-11211 133 2 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 133 3 ] ] X fbem-11211 133 4 bollerslev bollerslev NOUN fbem-11211 133 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 133 6 t. t. PROPN fbem-11211 133 7 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 133 8 1986 1986 NUM fbem-11211 133 9 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 133 10 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 134 1 generalized generalize VERB fbem-11211 134 2 autoregressive autoregressive ADJ fbem-11211 134 3 conditional conditional ADJ fbem-11211 134 4 heteroskedasticity heteroskedasticity NOUN fbem-11211 134 5 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 135 1 journal journal PROPN fbem-11211 135 2 of of ADP fbem-11211 135 3 econometrics econometric NOUN fbem-11211 135 4 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 135 5 31(3 31(3 NUM fbem-11211 135 6 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 135 7 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 135 8 307 307 NUM fbem-11211 135 9 - - SYM fbem-11211 135 10 327 327 NUM fbem-11211 135 11 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 136 1 [ [ X fbem-11211 136 2 6 6 NUM fbem-11211 136 3 ] ] SYM fbem-11211 136 4 ding ding NOUN fbem-11211 136 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 136 6 z. z. PROPN fbem-11211 136 7 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 136 8 granger granger PROPN fbem-11211 136 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 136 10 c. c. PROPN fbem-11211 136 11 w. w. PROPN fbem-11211 136 12 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 136 13 & & CCONJ fbem-11211 136 14 engle engle PROPN fbem-11211 136 15 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 136 16 r. r. PROPN fbem-11211 136 17 f. f. PROPN fbem-11211 136 18 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 136 19 1993 1993 NUM fbem-11211 136 20 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 136 21 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 137 1 a a DET fbem-11211 137 2 long long ADJ fbem-11211 137 3 memory memory NOUN fbem-11211 137 4 property property NOUN fbem-11211 137 5 of of ADP fbem-11211 137 6 stock stock NOUN fbem-11211 137 7 market market NOUN fbem-11211 137 8 returns return NOUN fbem-11211 137 9 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 137 10 a a DET fbem-11211 137 11 new new ADJ fbem-11211 137 12 model model NOUN fbem-11211 137 13 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 138 1 journal journal PROPN fbem-11211 138 2 of of ADP fbem-11211 138 3 empirical empirical ADJ fbem-11211 138 4 finance finance NOUN fbem-11211 138 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 138 6 1(1 1(1 NUM fbem-11211 138 7 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 138 8 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 138 9 83 83 NUM fbem-11211 138 10 - - SYM fbem-11211 138 11 106 106 NUM fbem-11211 138 12 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 139 1 [ [ X fbem-11211 139 2 7 7 NUM fbem-11211 139 3 ] ] X fbem-11211 139 4 mohammadi mohammadi NOUN fbem-11211 139 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 139 6 h. h. PROPN fbem-11211 139 7 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 139 8 & & CCONJ fbem-11211 139 9 su su PROPN fbem-11211 139 10 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 139 11 l. l. PROPN fbem-11211 139 12 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 139 13 2010 2010 NUM fbem-11211 139 14 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 139 15 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 140 1 international international ADJ fbem-11211 140 2 evidence evidence NOUN fbem-11211 140 3 on on ADP fbem-11211 140 4 crude crude ADJ fbem-11211 140 5 oil oil NOUN fbem-11211 140 6 price price NOUN fbem-11211 140 7 dynamics dynamic NOUN fbem-11211 140 8 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 140 9 applications application NOUN fbem-11211 140 10 of of ADP fbem-11211 140 11 arima arima NOUN fbem-11211 140 12 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 140 13 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 140 14 models model NOUN fbem-11211 140 15 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 141 1 energy energy NOUN fbem-11211 141 2 economics economic NOUN fbem-11211 141 3 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 141 4 32(5 32(5 NOUN fbem-11211 141 5 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 141 6 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 141 7 1001 1001 NUM fbem-11211 141 8 - - SYM fbem-11211 141 9 1008 1008 NUM fbem-11211 141 10 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 142 1 [ [ X fbem-11211 142 2 8 8 NUM fbem-11211 142 3 ] ] PUNCT fbem-11211 142 4 chhorn chhorn VERB fbem-11211 142 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 142 6 t. t. PROPN fbem-11211 142 7 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 142 8 2018 2018 NUM fbem-11211 142 9 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 142 10 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 143 1 tourism tourism NOUN fbem-11211 143 2 demand demand NOUN fbem-11211 143 3 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 143 4 exogenous exogenous ADJ fbem-11211 143 5 exchange exchange NOUN fbem-11211 143 6 rate rate NOUN fbem-11211 143 7 in in ADP fbem-11211 143 8 cambodia cambodia PROPN fbem-11211 143 9 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 143 10 a a DET fbem-11211 143 11 stochastic stochastic ADJ fbem-11211 143 12 seasonal seasonal ADJ fbem-11211 143 13 arimax arimax ADJ fbem-11211 143 14 approach approach NOUN fbem-11211 143 15 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 144 1 theoretical theoretical ADJ fbem-11211 144 2 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 144 3 practical practical ADJ fbem-11211 144 4 research research NOUN fbem-11211 144 5 in in ADP fbem-11211 144 6 economic economic ADJ fbem-11211 144 7 fields field NOUN fbem-11211 144 8 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 144 9 tpref tpref NOUN fbem-11211 144 10 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 144 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 144 12 9(17 9(17 NUM fbem-11211 144 13 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 144 14 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 144 15 5 5 NUM fbem-11211 144 16 - - SYM fbem-11211 144 17 16 16 NUM fbem-11211 144 18 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 145 1 [ [ X fbem-11211 145 2 9 9 NUM fbem-11211 145 3 ] ] X fbem-11211 145 4 zhou zhou PROPN fbem-11211 145 5 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 145 6 b. b. PROPN fbem-11211 145 7 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 145 8 he he PRON fbem-11211 145 9 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 145 10 d. d. PROPN fbem-11211 145 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 145 12 & & CCONJ fbem-11211 145 13 sun sun PROPN fbem-11211 145 14 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 145 15 z. z. PROPN fbem-11211 145 16 ( ( PUNCT fbem-11211 145 17 2006 2006 NUM fbem-11211 145 18 ) ) PUNCT fbem-11211 145 19 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 146 1 traffic traffic NOUN fbem-11211 146 2 modeling modeling NOUN fbem-11211 146 3 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 146 4 prediction prediction NOUN fbem-11211 146 5 using use VERB fbem-11211 146 6 arima arima PROPN fbem-11211 146 7 / / SYM fbem-11211 146 8 garch garch NOUN fbem-11211 146 9 model model NOUN fbem-11211 146 10 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 147 1 in in ADP fbem-11211 147 2 : : PUNCT fbem-11211 147 3 modeling modeling NOUN fbem-11211 147 4 and and CCONJ fbem-11211 147 5 simulation simulation NOUN fbem-11211 147 6 tools tool NOUN fbem-11211 147 7 for for ADP fbem-11211 147 8 emerging emerge VERB fbem-11211 147 9 telecommunication telecommunication NOUN fbem-11211 147 10 networks network NOUN fbem-11211 147 11 , , PUNCT fbem-11211 147 12 springer springer NOUN fbem-11211 147 13 . . PUNCT fbem-11211 148 1 pp.101 pp.101 NOUN fbem-11211 148 2 - - PUNCT fbem-11211 148 3 121 121 NUM fbem-11211 148 4 . . PUNCT