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1 
 

 

 

Article 

Toward a 100% renewable energy future in 
Iceland: scenario analysis of geothermal, biofuel, 
and electric vehicle integration 
Armita Fathi, Ahmadreza Abedkhani, Hossein Yoosefi*, Mahmood Abdoos, Helia Salaripoor  
School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University 
of Tehran, Tehran, Iran 

A R T I C L E   I N F O 
 

Article history: 
Received 10 June 2025  
Received in revised form 
21 July 2025 
Accepted 01 August 2025 
 
Keywords: 
Renewable energy, Energy transition,  
Carbon emissions reduction 
 
*Corresponding author 
Email address:  
hosseinyousefi@ut.ac.ir 
  
 
DOI: 10.55670/fpll.fuen.4.4.1 

A B S T R A C T 
 

This study investigates the transition paths towards a 100% renewable energy 
system in Iceland through scenario analysis and simulation using the Energy 
PLAN software. Because of its unique geographical location and abundant 
geothermal resources, Iceland is a case study for renewable energy. In the 
present research, three primary scenarios are considered. The EV scenario is 
the substitution of fossil-fuel vehicles with EVs, which would imply that the 
proportion of renewable energy rises to 91.2% and CO₂ emission falls from 1.98 
million tons in 2022 to 1.27 million tons by 2035. The Hybrid scenario, beyond 
the expansion of EVs, also includes the use of biofuels in industrial and maritime 
sectors, leading to an increase in the share of renewable energy to 96.6% and 
reducing CO₂ emissions down to 0.49 million tons. In contrast, the Business as 
Usual (BAU) scenario keeps the current system without structural changes, 
resulting in only a marginal increase in renewable energy share and an 
escalation of CO₂ emissions to 2.58 million tons. Alongside technical and 
environmental analysis, this study assesses the economic, social, and political 
aspects of the transition to a sustainable energy system. It highlights the 
importance of supportive policies, stronger regulations, and greater public 
awareness as key factors for success. Overall, the comprehensive insights 
provided by this research offer valuable guidance for policymakers and 
stakeholders aiming to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and enhance Iceland’s 
environmental performance. 
 

 
1. Introduction  

The urgent global shift from fossil fuels to renewable 
energy has intensified research into sustainable solutions, 
and Iceland, with its vast, easily accessible geothermal 
resources, stands out as an ideal candidate for a 100% 
renewable energy system. Although substantial fossil fuel 
reserves continue to exist and new discoveries further 
expand these resources, the current trajectory of fossil fuel 
consumption is incompatible with the stringent emission 
limits set by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, it is imperative 
for countries to shift their focus towards harnessing domestic 
renewable energy potential in order to meet climate targets 
and ensure long-term environmental sustainability [1-4]. 
Reliance on fossil fuels increases system vulnerability, 
underscoring the need to minimize this dependency. 
Although global studies highlight various regional challenges, 
our focus remains on Iceland’s unique energy landscape. Prior 
research has modeled individual renewable scenarios using 
energy planning software, yet few have integrated the 

interdependencies among various energy sectors. The United 
Nations predicts rising global temperatures, which, coupled 
with persistent fossil fuel dependency, may jeopardize energy 
security worldwide. For instance, Portugal, one of the 
European Union countries with significant energy 
dependency, could face national or international crises in the 
future [5-8]. Thanks to Iceland’s strategic position in Europe 
and its close integration within the European Economic Area, 
the nation’s renewable energy strategy has increasingly come 
under the influence of continental policy frameworks. In 
particular, the European Green Deal stands out as a 
comprehensive strategic initiative designed to curtail 
greenhouse gas emissions, bolster sustainable technologies, 
and foster the development of a green economy within the 
European Union. By incentivizing green investments and 
promoting clean technology advancement, this initiative is 
driving a fundamental transformation in the continent’s 
environmental and economic policies, thereby creating a 
strategic context that reinforces Iceland’s efforts. Aligning 

 

 

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A. Fathi et al. /Future Energy                                                                                                  November 2025| Volume 04 | Issue 04| Pages 01-08 

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with these ambitious targets not only enhances Iceland’s 
energy security and environmental sustainability but also 
establishes it as a benchmark for best practices across the 
region [9-11]. A study conducted by Elizabeth Paloma and 
colleagues examined the potential of geothermal energy 
(temperature-based) to supply 85% of the industrial 
activities in Spain. They found that Spain's industry has the 
potential to utilize at least 1.13% of geothermal energy, 
indicating the country's economic potential in harnessing this 
resource [12, 13]. Lebbihiat et al. [14] explored the potential 
of geothermal energy in Algeria, citing its relatively abundant 
low-enthalpy resources. They suggested that Algeria could 
partially meet its energy needs using this source, positioning 
the country as a pioneer in direct geothermal energy 
utilization in Africa, with a total installed heat capacity of 
54.64 megawatts. Manish Ram et al. [15], in a study utilizing 
the LUT energy system transition model, investigated the 
technical and economic potential for achieving 100% 
renewable energy in Delhi. This included heating, 
desalination, electricity, and transportation sectors in India. 
Their findings indicate that Delhi could benefit from reducing 
primary energy consumption by over 40%, lowering energy 
costs by over 25%, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, air 
pollution, and health impacts, thus facilitating regional energy 
transfer. Connolly conducted a technical and economic study 
on achieving 100% renewable energy for the European 
Union. They utilized the Energy Plan software to optimize the 
technical performance of a system and provide multiple 
scenario options. Their findings. revealed that the European 
Smart Energy scenario outperforms conventional energy 
scenarios by 10 to 15% in key economic and technical 
performance indicators. This advantage arises from 
reallocating investments from fuel imports to domestic job 
creation, which, in this context, would result in the generation 
of an additional 10 million direct jobs [16]. 

Parrado-Hernando et al. [17], in a study for Bulgaria on 
achieving 100% renewable energy, utilized the Energy Plan 
and ModAss tools. They identified a flexibility gap between 
two selected methods and proposed a new approach that is 
more beneficial for variable renewable energies in energy 
transition scenarios. Although Bulgaria's potential is limited 
by its three main industries, introducing hydrogen-based fuel 
results in a decrease in the system's Energy Return on 
Investment (EROI, which measures the ratio of usable energy 
produced to the energy invested in production) while 
simultaneously increasing the share of renewable energies 
[18]. Meschede et al. [19] highlighted the renewable energy 
potential of islands, where over 740 million people reside. 
Their results indicated that islands have significant potential 
to use solar PV and wind as primary technologies to reach a 
100% Renewable Energy Source (RES) system. Dominković 
and colleagues described the transition process to a 100% 
renewable energy system for Southeast Europe by 2050. They 
emphasized that no single source should have more than a 
30% share to enhance supply security. Economically, this 
transition would be beneficial, with primary energy supply 
expected to be nearly 51% lower than the baseline year [20]. 
Reyseliani et al. [21] assessed Indonesia's power system 
transition path using the VEDA-TIMES method to achieve 
100% renewable energy. They evaluated and optimized the 
cost-minimizing path and considered reliability using a Monte 
Carlo-based approach. DaneshvarDehnavi et al. [22] 
embarked on a challenging inquiry into renewable energy 
systems, focusing on a city in West Texas with a peak load of 
100 megawatts. They estimated the associated costs using 
two methods—real-time temporal data and load data—to 

attain an optimal model. Additionally, they utilized Monte 
Carlo simulations to enhance their analysis, comparing 
results to converge on an optimal blend and factoring in cost 
calculations to achieve a renewable energy system, 
considering reliability through a Monte Carlo-based analysis. 
Akuru et al. [23] raised a challenging question regarding the 
reliability and cost-effectiveness of RES systems in Nigeria. 
They initiated a study to outline the country's starting point 
toward reaching a 100% renewable energy system. Al 
Katsaprakakis et al. [24] examined the prospects of a 100% 
renewable energy system for the Faroe Islands. They defined 
systems and numerically simulated their performance to 
optimize dimensions. Their findings suggested that achieving 
an annual penetration of over 90% RES is entirely feasible 
both technically and economically, demonstrating the strong 
potential for a widespread renewable energy transition. Rey-
Costa et al. [25], in their study for Australia, asserted the cost-
effectiveness of renewable energies due to declining costs. 
They provided the most extensive geographical analysis and 
longest-term time series of solar PV and wind in the 
Australian electricity market. They identified areas better 
suited for industrial and commercial expansion through 
surplus renewable energy generation. Additionally, it was 
estimated that energy storage systems, designed to operate 
for durations ranging from 1 to 8 hours, could result in cost 
savings equivalent to nearly twice the annual energy 
demand—approximately 167 billion dollars—if battery 
storage is utilized, and up to four times that amount if non-
battery storage solutions are implemented. 

Daniel Icaza Alvarz et al. [26] proposed a zero-carbon 
energy system with 100% renewable energy for the 
Galapagos Islands, Ecuador, as the second-largest marine 
reserve in the world, designated a UNESCO World Heritage 
Site in 1978, with the project aiming for 2050. Michael Child 
et al. [27], by delineating two transition paths using the LUT 
energy system transition model, examined and plotted the 
path to 100% renewable energy for Europe by 2050. They 
deemed a 100% RES system technologically achievable and 
financially competitive for Europe, emphasizing the need for 
cost reduction and storage. Al-Ghussain et al. [28] 
investigated the security challenges of RES from a different 
perspective. They presented a novel method for assessing the 
security of integrated RES power systems, considering 
primary frequency regulation. Their evaluation, based on an 
improved accumulation-based PLF model using a multi-linear 
approach, creates a generalized power flow profile to rapidly 
identify operational violations. Previous works assumed ideal 
primary frequency control, compensating for fluctuations by 
conventional generating units over short time intervals, 
which may be invalid for small or isolated systems with high-
RES penetration. Thus, incorporating primary frequency 
regulation into PLF analysis is crucial for a comprehensive 
system risk assessment. The proposed method has proven 
highly effective. Palomba et al. [29] outlined the 
implementation of a solar biomass system for multi-family 
homes to achieve 100% renewable energy. They reported 
that typical energy demand profiles for these buildings 
allocate about 70% of total consumption to heating, while 
cooling requires full capacity (100%). Moreover, even in 
northern climates, renewable energy sources can supply 
nearly 60% of the overall energy demand [30]. Tabrizi et al. 
[31] used a TOPSIS-based multi-criteria decision-making 
method to evaluate renewable energy adoption in G7 
countries. They collected data on power generation, 
renewable outputs, carbon emissions, and economic 
indicators to calculate metrics such as carbon emissions per 



A. Fathi et al. /Future Energy                                                                                                  November 2025| Volume 04 | Issue 04| Pages 01-08 

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dollar of GDP. Their results revealed significant disparities, 
with the UK ranking highest and Canada lowest. The study 
shows that European nations with lower fossil fuel 
dependence perform better, providing valuable insights for 
policymakers. Previous research has explored geothermal 
potentials in various contexts, from industrial applications in 
Spain to low-enthalpy exploitation in Algeria, but these 
studies typically address isolated components rather than a 
full-system perspective. The research gap addressed in this 
article lies in the limited understanding and comprehensive 
analysis of the transition to a fully renewable energy system 
in Iceland, specifically focusing on the integration of 
geothermal energy with other renewable sources. Despite 
extensive studies on individual renewable resources, a 
comprehensive analysis that integrates the economic, social, 
and political challenges of transitioning Iceland’s energy 
system remains lacking. Moreover, existing literature often 
overlooks the dynamic relationship between energy policy, 
technological innovation, and public acceptance in shaping 
the shift toward renewables. This article fills this gap by using 
the EnergyPLAN model to analyze various energy mix 
scenarios and their impact on Iceland’s energy security, 
environmental sustainability, and economic feasibility. The 
study also critically examines the influence of government 
incentives and regulatory frameworks in encouraging the 
adoption of renewable technologies, helping to highlight both 
the obstacles and the opportunities involved. By addressing 
these underexplored aspects, this research not only 
contributes to the academic discourse on sustainable energy 
transitions but also provides practical insights for 
policymakers and stakeholders in Iceland and other regions 
with similar renewable energy goals. The findings underscore 
the importance of an integrated approach to energy planning, 
where technical, economic, and social factors are considered 
simultaneously to ensure a successful transition to a 100% 
renewable energy system. 

2. Methodology 
2.1 Current state of Iceland's renewable energy system 

This research aims to model the transition to a 100% 
renewable energy system in Iceland and to analyze its 
technical and environmental impacts. Geothermal energy, the 
dominant energy source, accounts for 65% of the energy mix, 
utilizing Earth's residual heat to generate both heat and 
electricity. Hydroelectric energy contributes 20%, 
underscoring its important role in Iceland's energy portfolio. 
In contrast, solar energy represents a minimal share, with a 
2022 capacity of 7 MW and production of 5 GWh, reflecting 
Iceland's low solar radiation levels, particularly during 
winter. Wind energy, primarily from coastal sources, had a 
reported capacity of 2 MW and produced 6 GWh in 2022. 
Although Iceland's long coastline offers significant wave 
energy potential, estimated at 1,524 TWh annually, 
commercial development remains improbable due to the 
lower costs associated with geothermal and hydroelectric 
power. Although Iceland has one of the lowest hydrogen fuel 
prices globally, its usage is currently limited, with minimal 
advancements in hydrogen infrastructure. Bioenergy usage is 
negligible, and the country has no nuclear facilities or plans 
for nuclear energy production. Fossil fuels, comprising 15% 
of the total energy mix, are predominantly used in 
transportation. Iceland's energy strategy emphasizes the use 
of diverse renewable resources that contribute to 
environmental sustainability. In the biofuels sector, 2022 data 
indicate limited use, with biofuel consumption in industry 
and fishing registering 0.8 TWh, compared to 2.3 TWh of oil 

consumption. In 2021, Iceland's renewable energy 
production totaled 19,617 GWh, with hydroelectric power 
generating 13,804 GWh, geothermal energy 5,802 GWh, and 
both wind and solar energy contributing 6 GWh and 5 GWh, 
respectively. The reliance on hydroelectric and geothermal 
energy illustrates Iceland's commitment to a sustainable, low-
carbon energy system. This transition involves optimizing 
energy resources, enhancing energy efficiency, and 
promoting low-carbon consumption patterns to mitigate 
environmental impacts and reduce greenhouse gas 
emissions. Iceland was chosen as the focus of this study due 
to its unique energy profile and the relative simplicity of 
modeling its renewable energy system [32]. Table 1 shows 
the monthly temperature variations in Iceland, which are 
crucial for assessing the seasonal impacts on renewable 
energy production, particularly for geothermal and solar 
systems. Similarly, Figure 1 illustrates the moisture status of 
Reykjavík throughout the year, providing valuable insights 
into local climatic conditions that affect energy demand and 
system performance. 

Table 1. Temperature of Iceland in different months of the year 

Daylight 

Hrs. (C) 

Coldest 

ever(C) 

Warmest 

ever(C) 

Average 

low(C) 

Average 

High(C) 

Month 

4 1 50 28 36 Jan 

7 7 50 28 37 Feb 

10 7 57 32 39 Mar 

15 9 59 33 45 Apr 

18 19 70 39 50 May 

20-22 32 70 45 54 Jun 

19 34 74 50 60 Jul 

16 32 70 48 57 Aug 

13 25 68 43 52 Sep 

9 14 61 37 45 Oct 

6 10 54 34 39 Nov 

4 1 52 28 36 Dec 

 

 
Figure1. Moisture status of Reykjavik, Iceland in different months of 
the year 

 



A. Fathi et al. /Future Energy                                                                                                  November 2025| Volume 04 | Issue 04| Pages 01-08 

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2.2 Energy PLAN Software 
In this study, the Energy PLAN model is employed. It is a 

deterministic simulation tool that has been specifically 
designed for comprehensive energy system analysis. Unlike 
many generic models, Energy PLAN uniquely features an 
'Endpoint' approach, which is used to forecast future system 
configurations rather than merely replicating current 
conditions. Multiple sectors (heat, transportation, industry, 
and electricity) are integrated by this tool through the 
consideration of various inputs such as renewable resource 
capacities, system demands, and cost parameters for both 
renewable and non-renewable sources. The application of 
Energy PLAN has been successfully carried out across diverse 
contexts, from industrialized nations to developing countries, 
for the development of regional and national energy 
strategies. Its capability to simulate the economic, 
environmental, and technical impacts of different energy 
scenarios is particularly well-suited for the evaluation of 
Iceland’s transition towards a 100% renewable energy 
system. Within the methodology of this study, Energy PLAN 
has been tailored to capture the unique interdependencies 
among energy sectors in Iceland, thereby enabling a detailed 
scenario-based analysis of pathways such as EVs, Hybrid, and 
BAU models. The overall flow of the model is illustrated in 
Figure 3, which is segmented into inputs, processes, and 
outcomes [33]. Peter Tozzi J.R. and Jane Jo [34] discussed 
renewable energy simulation using the Energy PLAN 
software. They described it as a cost-free, open-layer tool 
designed to analyze the energy, environmental, and economic 
impacts of various energy scenarios. The main objective is to 
model various scenarios and compare them. What makes it 
different is that the "Endpoint" modeling approach focuses on 
the future of the energy system rather than its current state 
[35]. 

2.3 Scenario descriptions 
The first scenario, which is basically BAU, models the 

continuation of the current trend without any structural 
changes. This scenario serves as a depiction of the country's 
current status and highlights the importance and urgency of 
implementing the two previous scenarios to improve the 
energy situation in Iceland. In the second scenario, named the 
EVs (S2) scenario, the development of electric vehicles as an 
alternative to fossil fuel vehicles is expected to increase 
energy efficiency and reduce environmental impacts. This 
scenario is proposed as a significant solution for the 
transition of Iceland's transportation sector. In the last 
scenario, named the Hybrid (S3) scenario, not only are EVs 
developed, but industrial energy consumption and ships are 
also converted to biofuel. This step will harness the full 
potential of clean and sustainable energy from biofuel 
sources, contributing to the realization of energy 
sustainability goals in Iceland. These three scenarios together 
present a balanced and coherent approach towards achieving 
sustainable energy supply and reducing negative 
environmental impacts. Table 2 provides a summary of 
scenario descriptions. As population growth directly affects 
increasing demand, the described scenarios were 
implemented based on population data up to 2023 and 
projections until 2035. Figure 2 demonstrates the Icelandic 
population trend up to 2023.  

3. Results and discussion 
As clearly shown in Figure 3, the results revealed that the 

share of renewable energies in supplying energy demand, 
known as RES, is different for each scenario. In the EV 

scenario, RES percentage reached 91.2%, while in the hybrid 
scenario, it reached 96.6%, which shows that the 
implementation of this scenario can be considered an 
effective step in reaching the goal of 100% renewable system 
in Iceland. The BAU scenario remains significant despite 
having a lower capacity for reducing greenhouse gas 
emissions. It represents an improvement compared to the 
situation in other countries. Additionally, it can serve as a 
valuable benchmark for comparing other scenarios, helping 
us make informed decisions for future environmental and 
energy policies. 

Table 2. Scenario descriptions 

 

 
Figure 2. Iceland’s population trend (blue points are available data 
and orange points are predictions)  

 

 

Figure 3. RES percentage trends   

 

Scenarios Abbreviation 

Code 

Scenario 1- Continuation of the current trend 
in Iceland’s energy system without any 
structural changes 

BAU  

Scenario 2- Conversion of fossil fuel cars to 
electric cars. 

EVs (S2) 

Scenario 3-  Conversion of fossil fuel cars to 
electric vehicles alongside conversion of 
industrial and maritime energy consumption 
to biofuel. 

Hybrid (S3) 



A. Fathi et al. /Future Energy                                                                                                  November 2025| Volume 04 | Issue 04| Pages 01-08 

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According to Figure 4, in terms of CO2 emissions, as 
expected, both EV and hybrid scenario implementation lead 
to a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, proving their 
positive and effective environmental impact and their role in 
mitigating the adverse effects of climate change. As can be 
seen in Figure 4, carbon dioxide emissions in 2022 amounted 
to 1.98 million tons. This number is reduced to 1.27 and 0.49 
million tons by 2035 in EVs and the hybrid scenario, 
respectively. This experience underscores that implementing 
changes in transportation and industrial systems towards 
clean fuels and sustainable energy systems is an effective 
strategy for achieving environmental compatibility and 
reducing the harmful effects of human activities on the Earth. 
However, the study also has its weaknesses. The accuracy of 
the model is highly dependent on the quality and availability 
of input data, which may vary and therefore affect the 
reliability of the results. The outcome is specific to Iceland’s 
unique energy system and may not be directly applicable to 
other regions with different conditions. Furthermore, while 
the study focuses on technical and environmental aspects, it 
does not delve deeply into economic considerations such as 
cost implications and financial feasibility, which are crucial 
for practical implementation and policy-making. 

 

Figure 4. Carbon dioxide production rate 

BAU scenario: In the BAU scenario, which assumes no 
significant changes to the current energy system, the share of 
renewable energy only increases slightly by 0.1%. This 
scenario reflects a continuation of current trends, with little 
progress in adopting renewable energy sources. Although the 
rate of increase is relatively modest, CO2 emissions are 
projected to rise to 2.58 million tons by 2035. This indicates 
that without structural changes, Iceland’s energy system will 
remain dependent on fossil fuels, resulting in a continued 
growth in greenhouse gas emissions. 
EVs scenario (S2): In this scenario, fossil fuel vehicles are 
replaced with EVs; therefore, the share of renewable energy 
sources in Iceland's energy supply reaches 91.2% by 2035. 
This represents a significant shift toward cleaner energy 
consumption. CO2 emissions decrease from 1.98 million tons 
in 2022 to 1.27 million tons by 2035. This reduction highlights 
the positive environmental impact of transitioning to EVs, 
which contribute to cleaner energy consumption and lower 
greenhouse gas emissions. 
Hybrid scenario (S3): The Hybrid scenario goes a step 
further by combining EV adoption with biofuel utilization. In 
this scenario, fossil fuels are replaced with biofuels in the 
industrial and maritime transportation sectors, resulting in 
an even higher RES share of 96.6% by 2035. This scenario 

demonstrates the potential for near-total reliance on 
renewable energy sources in Iceland. The Hybrid scenario 
achieves the most substantial reduction, lowering emissions 
to just 0.49 million tons by 2035. This substantial reduction 
underscores the effectiveness of integrating multiple 
renewable energy strategies to mitigate climate change. 

3.1 Economic consequences of transitioning to a 100% 
energy system 
Cost reductions in energy supply: Transitioning to a 

100% renewable energy system, particularly through 
scenarios such as EVs and Hybrid models, is projected to lead 
to significant reductions in energy costs. The EV scenario, 
which focuses on electric vehicles, reduces reliance on fossil 
fuels, leading to lower fuel expenditures and operational 
costs. The Hybrid scenario extends the noticed benefits by 
incorporating biofuel, which can stabilize energy prices in the 
long term by diversifying the energy mix. Both scenarios 
contribute to lowering the overall energy demand and 
enhancing energy efficiency, leading to cost savings across 
various sectors, including transportation, industry, and 
residential energy consumption. These reductions in energy 
costs can improve the economic competitiveness of Iceland's 
industries and reduce the cost of living for its citizens. Model 
estimates indicate that the EVs scenario could reduce total 
energy costs by approximately 12% compared to the BAU 
scenario, translating into annual savings of around $500 
million by 2035. The Hybrid scenario, by integrating biofuels 
into sectors such as maritime transport, is forecasted to 
deliver cost reductions of up to 18%, as energy diversification 
contributes to long-term energy price stability. 
 Job creation and economic growth: Investments in 
renewable energy infrastructure, such as the development of 
EV charging infrastructure and biofuel production facilities, 
are expected to create jobs in construction, operation, and 
maintenance. The Hybrid scenario, which includes both EVs 
and biofuels, is likely to generate more employment 
opportunities than the EV scenario alone. The transition to a 
100% renewable energy system also has the potential to 
attract foreign direct investment, particularly in green 
technologies and clean energy sectors, contributing to the 
diversification of Iceland's economy and economic growth. 
According to the model, the EV scenario could directly 
generate around 3,000 new jobs in areas related to the 
deployment and maintenance of EV infrastructure. The 
Hybrid scenario is projected to deliver even more 
employment benefits, potentially creating an additional 5,000 
direct jobs due to the broader scope of investments in both 
electric vehicle and biofuel production facilities. These 
employment gains, alongside enhanced industrial 
competitiveness, contribute to overall economic growth and 
diversification. 
Financial evaluation and investment opportunities: The 
financial evaluation of the proposed scenarios highlights the 
critical need for upfront capital investments in renewable 
energy infrastructure. While the EV scenario demands 
considerable initial investment, it offers long-term financial 
benefits through reduced fuel imports and lower operational 
costs. The Hybrid scenario requires even more extensive 
investments, particularly in biofuel production and 
distribution networks. However, these additional costs can be 
justified by the long-term advantages of enhanced energy 
security and reduced sensitivity to fuel price fluctuations. 
Early investments in these scenarios would play a pivotal role 
in realizing these economic benefits. By supporting the 
development of renewable energy infrastructure, investors 



A. Fathi et al. /Future Energy                                                                                                  November 2025| Volume 04 | Issue 04| Pages 01-08 

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can ensure the financial viability of these projects and gain 
significant returns on investment through the growing 
demand for clean energy. 

3.2 Recommendations for policymakers and 
stakeholders 
Incentivize investments in renewable energy: Our 

results indicate that both the EVs and Hybrid scenarios yield 
significant cost savings and emission reductions. 
Policymakers can build on these insights by offering targeted 
tax incentives, grants, and low-interest loans focused on 
expanding EV infrastructure and developing sustainable 
biofuel systems. Such measures will further drive investment 
into areas where our model shows the greatest potential for 
improvement. 
Enhance energy policy frameworks: Given Iceland’s unique 
strengths in geothermal and hydroelectric power, existing 
energy policies should be revised to integrate additional 
renewable measures demonstrated in our scenarios. It’s not 
just about increasing the share of renewables overall; it's also 
about enabling specific measures, like scaling up biofuels for 
maritime transport, which can play a decisive role in 
improving energy security and reducing fossil fuel 
dependency. 
Promote public awareness and education: A successful 
transition to a 100% renewable energy system is not only a 
technical or economic challenge, but also a social one. Our 
findings underscore the importance of public engagement. 
Designing public awareness campaigns is recommended to 
highlight the specific benefits of EVs and Hybrid scenarios, 
such as reduced operational costs and improved air quality. 
Educational programs can also foster greater understanding 
of how everyday choices connect to Iceland’s long-term 
sustainability and resilience. 

3.3 Social and Political Challenges of the Transition to a 
100% Renewable Energy System 
Addressing policy and infrastructure gaps: Although 

the simulation results indicated promising technical and 
environmental potential, overcoming institutional and 
infrastructural barriers is essential in order to achieve these 
benefits in practice. Policymakers must address the existing 
gaps in the current system. For instance, the growing share of 
renewable energy sources requires modernizing the national 
grid and expanding electric vehicle charging infrastructure. 
Managing the socioeconomic transition: The scenarios also 
pointed to potential economic gains, such as job creation 
within renewable energy sectors. Nevertheless, these 
advantages must be weighed against the disruptions caused 
by restructuring traditional industries. Strategic support is 
needed for employee retraining and local economic 
diversification to mitigate any short-term employment 
disruptions. 
Securing political and public support: Given the innovative 
nature of integrating biofuels with existing renewable 
resources in the Hybrid scenario, it is crucial to build a broad 
consensus. Government incentives, coupled with transparent 
communication of study findings (e.g., quantified reductions 
in CO₂ emissions and cost savings), can help secure both 
political support and public approval for the necessary 
structural reforms. 
These recommendations and challenges are directly derived 
from the findings of our Energy PLAN-based scenario 
analysis, ensuring that policy and stakeholder strategies are 
both targeted and feasible. 

 

4. Conclusion 
This study explored a new pathway for Iceland’s energy 

transition by integrating geothermal energy, biofuels, and 
electric vehicles into a unified, scenario-based model using 
the Energy PLAN software. Unlike earlier studies that often 
examined renewable energy sources in isolation, this paper 
focused on how different energy sectors interact within 
broader policy frameworks. Three distinct scenarios were 
compared: in the EVs scenario, replacing fossil fuel vehicles 
with electric vehicles significantly boosted the share of 
renewable energy and led to a noticeable reduction in CO₂ 
emissions; in the Hybrid scenario, which combined the 
adoption of EVs with the use of biofuels in industrial and 
maritime sectors, the renewable energy share reached 
approximately 97% while CO₂ emissions dropped to 0.49 
million tons by 2035. Conversely, the BAU scenario showed 
only a marginal increase in renewable energy share, with CO₂ 
emissions rising to 2.58 million tons. These findings 
demonstrated that integrated renewable strategies can 
substantially enhance energy security and environmental 
sustainability. The outcomes also aligned with growing 
research supporting the necessity of comprehensive energy 
planning. Compared to earlier studies that treated individual 
energy sources separately, this work underscored the added 
value of a multifaceted approach and highlighted the 
importance of supportive policies such as those promoted by 
the European Green Deal in driving the transition. In 
summary, the study confirmed that strategic interventions 
and the adoption of a diverse renewable energy mix are 
essential for overcoming fossil fuel dependency. It offered 
both a theoretical contribution to academic discourse and 
practical guidance for policymakers and stakeholders in 
Iceland and similar regions pursuing a low-carbon future. 

Ethical issue 
The authors are aware of and comply with best practices in 
publication ethics, specifically concerning authorship 
(avoidance of guest authorship), dual submission, 
manipulation of figures, competing interests, and compliance 
with policies on research ethics. The authors adhere to 
publication requirements that the submitted work is original 
and has not been published elsewhere in any language. 

Data availability statement 
The manuscript contains all the data. However, more data will 
be available upon request from the corresponding author. 

Conflict of interest 
The authors declare no potential conflict of interest. 

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and the role of education. Renewable and Sustainable 
Energy Reviews, 2024. 189: p. 114008. 

[2] Marczinkowski, H.M. and L. Barros, Technical 
approaches and institutional alignment to 100% 
renewable energy system transition of Madeira 
Island—Electrification, smart energy and the 
required flexible market conditions. Energies, 2020. 
13(17): p. 4434. 

[3]  Yousefi, H., et al., Developing the geothermal 
resources map of Iran. Geothermics, 2010. 39(2): p. 
140-151. 



A. Fathi et al. /Future Energy                                                                                                  November 2025| Volume 04 | Issue 04| Pages 01-08 

7 
 

[4] Rasaei, Fateme, et al. “Optimal Selection of CSP Site 
for Desalination System Using GIS and AHP Method in 
Hormozgan Province, Iran.” Energy Reports, vol. 13, 
2025, pp. 2255–68, 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2025.01.082. 

[5]       Porubova, J. and G. Bazbauers, Analysis of long-term 
plan for energy supply system for Latvia that is 100% 
based on the use of local energy resources. 
Environmental and Climate Technologies, 2010. 4(1): 
p. 82-90. 

[6] Raza, M.A., et al., Towards achieving 100% renewable 
energy supply for sustainable climate change in 
Pakistan. Sustainability, 2022. 14(24): p. 16547. 

[7] Yousefi, H., S. Ehara, and Y. Noorollahi. Geothermal 
potential site selection using GIS in Iran. in 
Proceedings of the 32nd workshop on geothermal 
reservoir engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, 
California. 2007. 

[8]        Razeghi, Marziyeh, et al. “Evaluating the Economic 
Impact of Solar Energy on Local   Industries in 
Semnan, Iran.” Future Sustainability, vol. 03, no. 01, 
pp. 49–58, https://doi.org/10.55670/fpll.fusus.3.1.5. 

[9]        https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-
policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-
deal_en 

[10]      Fardnia, Khashayar, et al. “A Bibliometric Analysis of 
Carbon and Water Footprints in Renewable Energy: 
The Post-COVID-19 Landscape.” Green Technologies 
and Sustainability, vol. 3, no. 3, 2025, 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.grets.2024.100162. 

[11]      Abdoos, Mahmood, et al. “Forecasting Solar Energy 
Generation in the Mediterranean Region up to 2030–
2050 Using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN).” 
Cleaner Energy Systems, vol. 10, 2025, 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cles.2024.100167. 

[12] Palomo-Torrejón, E., et al., Economic and 
environmental benefits of geothermal energy in 
industrial processes. Renewable Energy, 2021. 174: p. 
134-146. 

[13] Yousefi-Sahzabi, A., et al., GIS aided prediction of CO2 
emission dispersion from geothermal electricity 
production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2011. 
19(17-18): p. 1982-1993. 

[14] Lebbihiat, N., et al., Geothermal energy use in Algeria: 
A review on the current status compared to the 
worldwide, utilization opportunities and 
countermeasures. Journal of Cleaner Production, 
2021. 302: p. 126950. 

[15] Ram, M., et al., Energy transition in megacities 
towards 100% renewable energy: A case for Delhi. 
Renewable Energy, 2022. 195: p. 578-589. 

[16] Connolly, D., H. Lund, and B.V. Mathiesen, Smart 
Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of 
one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for 
the European Union. Renewable and Sustainable 
Energy Reviews, 2016. 60: p. 1634-1653. 

[17] Parrado-Hernando, G., et al. Modelling of 100% 
Renewable Energy Systems in Integrated Assessment 
Models by multi-timeframe regression analysis. in 
Proceedings of 16th Conference on Sustainable 

Development of Energy, Water and Environment 
Systems–SDEWES. 2021. Zagreb: SDEWES. 

[18] Khazaee, M., et al., Assessment of renewable energy 
production capacity of Asian countries: a review. New 
Energy Exploitation and Application, 2022. 1(2): p. 
25-41. 

[19] Meschede, H., et al., A review of 100% renewable 
energy scenarios on islands. Wiley Interdisciplinary 
Reviews: Energy and Environment, 2022. 11(6): p. 
e450. 

[20] Dominković, D.F., et al., Zero carbon energy system of 
South East Europe in 2050. Applied energy, 2016. 
184: p. 1517-1528. 

[21] Reyseliani, N. and W.W. Purwanto, Pathway towards 
100% renewable energy in Indonesia power system 
by 2050. Renewable Energy, 2021. 176: p. 305-321. 

[22] DaneshvarDehnavi, S., et al., Can 100% renewable 
power system be successfully built? Renewable 
Energy, 2021. 177: p. 715-722. 

[23] Akuru, U.B., et al., Towards 100% renewable energy 
in Nigeria. Renewable and Sustainable Energy 
Reviews, 2017. 71: p. 943-953. 

[24] Al Katsaprakakis, D., et al., Faroe Islands: towards 
100% RES penetration. Renewable Energy, 2019. 
135: p. 473-484. 

[25] Rey-Costa, E., et al., Firming 100% renewable power: 
Costs and opportunities in Australia's National 
Electricity Market. Renewable Energy, 2023. 219: p. 
119416. 

[26] Icaza-Alvarez, D., et al., Decarbonization of the 
Galapagos Islands. Proposal to transform the energy 
system into 100% renewable by 2050. Renewable 
Energy, 2022. 189: p. 199-220. 

[27] Child, M., et al., Flexible electricity generation, grid 
exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% 
renewable energy system in Europe. Renewable 
energy, 2019. 139: p. 80-101. 

[28] Al-Ghussain, L., et al., Techno-economic feasibility of 
thermal storage systems for the transition to 100% 
renewable grids. Renewable Energy, 2022. 189: p. 
800-812. 

[29] Palomba, V., et al., Implementation of a solar-biomass 
system for multi-family houses: Towards 100% 
renewable energy utilization. Renewable energy, 
2020. 166: p. 190-209. 

[30] Habib, A., et al., Evaluation of the effect of high 
penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) on 
system frequency regulation using stochastic risk 
assessment technique (an approach based on 
improved cumulant). Renewable Energy, 2018. 127: 
p. 204-212. 

[31]      Tabrizi, A., Yousefi, H., Abdoos, M. et al. Evaluating 
renewable energy adoption in G7 countries: a 
TOPSIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis. Discov 
Energy 5, 2 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43937-
025-00064-w 

[32]  IRENA. Reneweble Energy Statistic 2023. 2023, 
file:///C:/Users/Muhyeddin/Downloads/Statistical 
Review of World Energy.pdf. 



A. Fathi et al. /Future Energy                                                                                                  November 2025| Volume 04 | Issue 04| Pages 01-08 

8 
 

[33]  Lund, H., et al., EnergyPLAN–Advanced analysis of 
smart energy systems. Smart Energy, 2021. 1: p. 
100007. 

[34] Tozzi Jr, P. and J.H. Jo, A comparative analysis of 
renewable energy simulation tools: Performance 
simulation model vs. system optimization. Renewable 
and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017. 80: p. 390-
398. 

[35] Jahangir, M.H., et al., Reducing carbon emissions of 
industrial large livestock farms using hybrid 
renewable energy systems. Renewable Energy, 2022. 
189: p. 52-65. 

 
 
 

 
This article is an open-access article distributed under the 
terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 
(CC BY) license 
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

	1. Introduction
	The urgent global shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy has intensified research into sustainable solutions, and Iceland, with its vast, easily accessible geothermal resources, stands out as an ideal candidate for a 100% renewable energy system....
	Parrado-Hernando et al. [17], in a study for Bulgaria on achieving 100% renewable energy, utilized the Energy Plan and ModAss tools. They identified a flexibility gap between two selected methods and proposed a new approach that is more beneficial for...
	Daniel Icaza Alvarz et al. [26] proposed a zero-carbon energy system with 100% renewable energy for the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador, as the second-largest marine reserve in the world, designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1978, with the project ai...
	2. Methodology
	2.1 Current state of Iceland's renewable energy system
	This research aims to model the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Iceland and to analyze its technical and environmental impacts. Geothermal energy, the dominant energy source, accounts for 65% of the energy mix, utilizing Earth's residu...
	Table 1. Temperature of Iceland in different months of the year
	Figure1. Moisture status of Reykjavik, Iceland in different months of the year
	2.2 Energy PLAN Software
	In this study, the Energy PLAN model is employed. It is a deterministic simulation tool that has been specifically designed for comprehensive energy system analysis. Unlike many generic models, Energy PLAN uniquely features an 'Endpoint' approach, whi...
	2.3 Scenario descriptions
	The first scenario, which is basically BAU, models the continuation of the current trend without any structural changes. This scenario serves as a depiction of the country's current status and highlights the importance and urgency of implementing the ...
	3. Results and discussion
	As clearly shown in Figure 3, the results revealed that the share of renewable energies in supplying energy demand, known as RES, is different for each scenario. In the EV scenario, RES percentage reached 91.2%, while in the hybrid scenario, it reache...
	Table 2. Scenario descriptions
	Figure 2. Iceland’s population trend (blue points are available data and orange points are predictions)
	Figure 3. RES percentage trends
	According to Figure 4, in terms of CO2 emissions, as expected, both EV and hybrid scenario implementation lead to a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, proving their positive and effective environmental impact and their role in mitigating the adver...
	Figure 4. Carbon dioxide production rate
	BAU scenario: In the BAU scenario, which assumes no significant changes to the current energy system, the share of renewable energy only increases slightly by 0.1%. This scenario reflects a continuation of current trends, with little progress in adopt...
	EVs scenario (S2): In this scenario, fossil fuel vehicles are replaced with EVs; therefore, the share of renewable energy sources in Iceland's energy supply reaches 91.2% by 2035. This represents a significant shift toward cleaner energy consumption. ...
	Hybrid scenario (S3): The Hybrid scenario goes a step further by combining EV adoption with biofuel utilization. In this scenario, fossil fuels are replaced with biofuels in the industrial and maritime transportation sectors, resulting in an even high...
	3.1 Economic consequences of transitioning to a 100% energy system
	Cost reductions in energy supply: Transitioning to a 100% renewable energy system, particularly through scenarios such as EVs and Hybrid models, is projected to lead to significant reductions in energy costs. The EV scenario, which focuses on electric...
	Job creation and economic growth: Investments in renewable energy infrastructure, such as the development of EV charging infrastructure and biofuel production facilities, are expected to create jobs in construction, operation, and maintenance. The Hy...
	Financial evaluation and investment opportunities: The financial evaluation of the proposed scenarios highlights the critical need for upfront capital investments in renewable energy infrastructure. While the EV scenario demands considerable initial i...
	3.2 Recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders
	Incentivize investments in renewable energy: Our results indicate that both the EVs and Hybrid scenarios yield significant cost savings and emission reductions. Policymakers can build on these insights by offering targeted tax incentives, grants, and ...
	Enhance energy policy frameworks: Given Iceland’s unique strengths in geothermal and hydroelectric power, existing energy policies should be revised to integrate additional renewable measures demonstrated in our scenarios. It’s not just about increasi...
	Promote public awareness and education: A successful transition to a 100% renewable energy system is not only a technical or economic challenge, but also a social one. Our findings underscore the importance of public engagement. Designing public aware...
	3.3 Social and Political Challenges of the Transition to a 100% Renewable Energy System
	Addressing policy and infrastructure gaps: Although the simulation results indicated promising technical and environmental potential, overcoming institutional and infrastructural barriers is essential in order to achieve these benefits in practice. Po...
	Managing the socioeconomic transition: The scenarios also pointed to potential economic gains, such as job creation within renewable energy sectors. Nevertheless, these advantages must be weighed against the disruptions caused by restructuring traditi...
	Securing political and public support: Given the innovative nature of integrating biofuels with existing renewable resources in the Hybrid scenario, it is crucial to build a broad consensus. Government incentives, coupled with transparent communicatio...
	These recommendations and challenges are directly derived from the findings of our Energy PLAN-based scenario analysis, ensuring that policy and stakeholder strategies are both targeted and feasible.
	4. Conclusion
	The manuscript contains all the data. However, more data will be available upon request from the corresponding author.
	Conflict of interest
	The authors declare no potential conflict of interest.
	References
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	[2] Marczinkowski, H.M. and L. Barros, Technical approaches and institutional alignment to 100% renewable energy system transition of Madeira Island—Electrification, smart energy and the required flexible market conditions. Energies, 2020. 13(17): p. ...
	[3]  Yousefi, H., et al., Developing the geothermal resources map of Iran. Geothermics, 2010. 39(2): p. 140-151.
	[4] Rasaei, Fateme, et al. “Optimal Selection of CSP Site for Desalination System Using GIS and AHP Method in Hormozgan Province, Iran.” Energy Reports, vol. 13, 2025, pp. 2255–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2025.01.082.
	[5]       Porubova, J. and G. Bazbauers, Analysis of long-term plan for energy supply system for Latvia that is 100% based on the use of local energy resources. Environmental and Climate Technologies, 2010. 4(1): p. 82-90.
	[6] Raza, M.A., et al., Towards achieving 100% renewable energy supply for sustainable climate change in Pakistan. Sustainability, 2022. 14(24): p. 16547.
	[7] Yousefi, H., S. Ehara, and Y. Noorollahi. Geothermal potential site selection using GIS in Iran. in Proceedings of the 32nd workshop on geothermal reservoir engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California. 2007.
	[8]        Razeghi, Marziyeh, et al. “Evaluating the Economic Impact of Solar Energy on Local   Industries in Semnan, Iran.” Future Sustainability, vol. 03, no. 01, pp. 49–58, https://doi.org/10.55670/fpll.fusus.3.1.5.
	[9]        https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en
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	[12] Palomo-Torrejón, E., et al., Economic and environmental benefits of geothermal energy in industrial processes. Renewable Energy, 2021. 174: p. 134-146.
	[13] Yousefi-Sahzabi, A., et al., GIS aided prediction of CO2 emission dispersion from geothermal electricity production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2011. 19(17-18): p. 1982-1993.
	[14] Lebbihiat, N., et al., Geothermal energy use in Algeria: A review on the current status compared to the worldwide, utilization opportunities and countermeasures. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021. 302: p. 126950.
	[15] Ram, M., et al., Energy transition in megacities towards 100% renewable energy: A case for Delhi. Renewable Energy, 2022. 195: p. 578-589.
	[16] Connolly, D., H. Lund, and B.V. Mathiesen, Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016. 60: p. 1634-1653.
	[17] Parrado-Hernando, G., et al. Modelling of 100% Renewable Energy Systems in Integrated Assessment Models by multi-timeframe regression analysis. in Proceedings of 16th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems–...
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	[19] Meschede, H., et al., A review of 100% renewable energy scenarios on islands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 2022. 11(6): p. e450.
	[20] Dominković, D.F., et al., Zero carbon energy system of South East Europe in 2050. Applied energy, 2016. 184: p. 1517-1528.
	[21] Reyseliani, N. and W.W. Purwanto, Pathway towards 100% renewable energy in Indonesia power system by 2050. Renewable Energy, 2021. 176: p. 305-321.
	[22] DaneshvarDehnavi, S., et al., Can 100% renewable power system be successfully built? Renewable Energy, 2021. 177: p. 715-722.
	[23] Akuru, U.B., et al., Towards 100% renewable energy in Nigeria. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017. 71: p. 943-953.
	[24] Al Katsaprakakis, D., et al., Faroe Islands: towards 100% RES penetration. Renewable Energy, 2019. 135: p. 473-484.
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	[26] Icaza-Alvarez, D., et al., Decarbonization of the Galapagos Islands. Proposal to transform the energy system into 100% renewable by 2050. Renewable Energy, 2022. 189: p. 199-220.
	[27] Child, M., et al., Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe. Renewable energy, 2019. 139: p. 80-101.
	[28] Al-Ghussain, L., et al., Techno-economic feasibility of thermal storage systems for the transition to 100% renewable grids. Renewable Energy, 2022. 189: p. 800-812.
	[29] Palomba, V., et al., Implementation of a solar-biomass system for multi-family houses: Towards 100% renewable energy utilization. Renewable energy, 2020. 166: p. 190-209.
	[30] Habib, A., et al., Evaluation of the effect of high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) on system frequency regulation using stochastic risk assessment technique (an approach based on improved cumulant). Renewable Energy, 2018. 127: p. ...
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	[33]  Lund, H., et al., EnergyPLAN–Advanced analysis of smart energy systems. Smart Energy, 2021. 1: p. 100007.
	[34] Tozzi Jr, P. and J.H. Jo, A comparative analysis of renewable energy simulation tools: Performance simulation model vs. system optimization. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017. 80: p. 390-398.
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