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08-15 

8 

 

 

 

Article 

Integrating sustainable wind power into Nigeria’s 

energy system: an analysis of excess electricity, CO2 

emissions reduction, and fuel demand implications 
Samuel Effiom1*, Francis Osang1, James Diwa Enyia1, Cordelia Omoyi2, Ogheneruona E. 

Diemuodeke3, Thomas Magu4, Patrick Odu5, Fidelis Abam6 

1Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Cross River State, Calabar, Nigeria 
2Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria 
3Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Portharcourt, Portharcourt, Nigeria 
4Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria 
5Department of Chemistry, University of Florida, USA 
6Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria 

               A R T I C L E   I N F O 
 

Article history: 
Received 07 January 2025  
Received in revised form 
13 February 2025 
Accepted 25 February 2025 
 
Keywords:  
Wind power, Electricity production,  
CO2 emissions, Renewable energy, Nigeria 
 
*Corresponding author 
Email address: 
samueloliver@unicross.edu.ng  
 
 
 
DOI: 10.55670/fpll.fusus.3.2.2 
 

A B S T R A C T 
 

This study explores the integration of sustainable wind power into Nigeria's 

energy system, focusing on its effects on Excess Electricity Production (CEEP), 

CO2 emissions reduction, and fuel demand under different scenarios. Using the 

Energy PLAN modeling tool, the study evaluates Nigeria's energy infrastructure 

at an electricity demand of 32 TWh per year, incorporating both onshore and 

offshore wind power capacities. Three regulatory scenarios are considered: 

Regulation 1 (heat demand only), Regulation 2 (combined heat and electricity 

demand), and Regulation 3 (heat pump integration). The results indicate that 

increasing wind power capacity significantly affects CEEP. At maximum wind 

penetration, CEEP is reduced by 35% under Regulation 2 with heat pump 

integration, compared to Regulation 1, highlighting the importance of system 

flexibility. Integrating heat pumps reduces energy waste and optimizes 

renewable energy use by 40%. The CO2 emissions are reduced by about 28% 

across all scenarios, with the most significant reductions occurring in systems 

incorporating heat pumps and wind energy. The study shows that primary 

energy savings were about 25%, driven by decreased reliance on fossil fuels. 

Wind energy integration leads to a 30% reduction in natural gas consumption, 

which remains a significant component of Nigeria’s energy mix. Sensitivity 

analysis reveals that variability in wind production and enhanced system 

flexibility can improve overall energy system efficiency by 20%. The study 

contributes significantly to the understanding of renewable energy integration 

in Nigeria, offering a comprehensive framework for incorporating intermittent 

wind energy sources into the national grid. 

 

1. Introduction 

The rapid global population growth and modern 

industrialization and lifestyles have led to a significant energy 

demand-supply gap. Addressing this gap requires an urgent 

expansion of clean, stable, and sustainable energy sources 

[1,2]. Furthermore, it has been emphasized energy is 

indispensable for economic growth, social development, 

poverty alleviation, and national security [3,4]. A consistent 

energy supply has become critical for nations' development 

globally. However, the continued dependence on diminishing 

fossil fuels for energy production has detrimental 

environmental effects and poses serious health concerns 

[5,6]. Unfortunately, many developing countries, including 

Nigeria, still lack stable and reliable energy access to drive 

Future Sustainability 

Open Access Journal 

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May 2025| Volume 03 | Issue 02 | Pages 08-15 

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S. Effiom et al. /Future Sustainability                                                                                             May 2025| Volume 03 | Issue 02 | Pages 08-15 

9 

 

their internal economy, thus leading to economic fluctuations 

and deficits. This energy shortfall impedes practical 

technological development and reduces agricultural 

activities, leading to food insecurity. Rapid, ambitious energy 

generation utilizing all-generation technologies will be 

imperative for a fast-developing nation like Nigeria [7]. 

Studies by references [8-11] indicate that approximately 60-

70% of the world population, equivalent to 1.2 billion people, 

still lack access to a modern, steady energy supply, with 

around 50% residing in sub-Saharan Africa. This situation 

will worsen in the coming decades if current trends persist, 

potentially hindering Africa’s industrialization and slowing 

the global transition toward environmental sustainability 

[12].  

Nigeria, the most populous country in the region, has 

approximately 100 million citizens who lack access to reliable 

and clean energy [13,14]. This situation underscores the 

country's severe energy shortages and the urgent need to 

transition to a more sustainable energy system. Despite being 

rich in both conventional (non-renewable) energy resources, 

for example, fossil fuels, and renewable energy sources, like 

biomass, hydro, solar, and wind, Nigeria possesses enough 

energy potential to meet the demands of its population. 

Additionally, it could export surplus energy to neighboring 

countries, generating revenue. However, the country’s 

current energy supply is insufficient and cannot keep up with 

the growing demand driven by population growth, 

industrialization, and increased human activities.  

Many countries, including Germany [15], Russia [16], the 

United States of America [17, 18], and China [19], have 

transitioned their power generation sectors by increasing the 

use of lower-carbon fuels like natural gas. In hydrocarbon-

dominated economies such as the Gulf Cooperation Council 

(GCC) countries, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), 

Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, natural gas is the primary fuel for 

electricity generation [20]. Around the world, nations 

deliberately shift from carbon-heavy fuels to natural gas and, 

ultimately, renewable energy sources. Nigeria is no exception 

to this trend. Given the current fluctuations in gas supplies 

and prices of LNG and LPG, which affect the downstream oil 

and gas sectors [21], along with global trends toward 

sustainable energy transitions, the need to deploy renewable 

energy in Nigeria is critical for achieving a transformative 

shift in its energy demand. Diversifying the energy matrix to 

include renewable energy will enable the nation to redirect 

the ‘avoided’ natural gas to its downstream sector to produce 

higher-value carbon products. Furthermore, the 

accompanying decarbonization efforts will contribute to the 

country's nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under 

the Paris Agreement.  

While renewable energy penetration in Nigeria remains 

in its nascent stages, it currently utilizes only hydropower and 

bioenergy as renewable energy sources. However, Nigeria has 

begun exploring wind and, more prominently, solar PV 

energy at household and industrial levels to reduce 

greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and carbon footprints [20, 

21]. Many countries involved in the Paris Agreement aim to 

achieve 100 % renewable energy grid power by 2050. In 

contrast, Nigeria's current renewable energy grid power 

target remains significantly modest [22]. Nevertheless, 

transitioning from heavy carbon fuels to lighter and 

renewable energy is crucial for plummeting GHG emissions 

and restraining global temperature rises to less than 2°C 

above preindustrial levels.  

This study, therefore, aims to integrate sustainable wind 

power into Nigeria’s energy system by analyzing critical 

excess electricity, CO2 emissions, and fuel demand. The 

specific objectives of this study are: (i) Evaluate the impact of 

wind power production on Critical Excess Electricity 

Production (CEEP) and primary energy supply in Nigeria 

under different regulatory conditions, (ii) Assess the 

reduction in CO2 emissions resulting from the integration of 

wind power into Nigeria’s energy mix, alongside the 

incorporation of flexible energy systems such as heat pumps, 

(iii) Analyze fuel demand patterns and potential savings 

under various wind power capacities and regulatory 

scenarios, aiming to identify optimal energy system 

configurations and (iv) Develop a systematic framework for 

integrating fluctuating renewable energy sources (RES) into 

Nigeria's electricity grid, while minimizing waste and 

maximizing environmental sustainability. 

2. Methodology 

2.1 Energy system modeling and scenarios 

EnergyPLAN is a computational tool primarily used to 

evaluate various aspects of energy systems, including Critical 

Excess Electricity Production (CEEP), CO2 emissions, Primary 

Energy Supply (PES), fuel demand, and potential savings. As 

shown in Figure 1, EnergyPLAN is an energy modeling and 

forecasting software designed to support the development of 

national energy planning strategies [23]. EnergyPLAN 

requires four key input sets for conducting technical analyses, 

as presented in Figure 2 [24]. 

After reviewing Nigeria's policies, challenges, and 

opportunities associated with renewable energy, a baseline 

model was developed using EnergyPLAN software based on 

the country's current energy demand and supply data, 

totaling 32 TWh/year. Considering Nigeria's energy 

regulatory framework, two system scenarios, Open and 

Closed systems, were created. Wind power production data, 

including onshore and offshore capacities, was incorporated 

into the model, along with system constraints such as heat 

pump capacities and fluctuating wind production, as adopted 

from the system software.  

The evaluated results were analyzed under three 

regulatory scenarios to measure the outcome of increased 

wind power production on key performance metrics. Most of 

the data input used in this study was sourced from [25-35]. 

i. Regulation 1 (Heat Demand only) 

ii. Regulation 2 (Heat and Electricity Demand) 

iii. Regulation 2 + Heat Pump Integration 

Furthermore, two National renewable energy adoption 

(NREA) scenarios were created and analyzed to provide 

critical insights into system optimization through wind power 

integration and flexible energy in Nigeria (Table 1). These 

projected scenarios include NREA30 and NREA50 for 

analyzing modeled energy scenarios for 2030 and 2050, 

respectively.  

 

 

 



S. Effiom et al. /Future Sustainability                                                                                             May 2025| Volume 03 | Issue 02 | Pages 08-15 

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Figure 1. Schematic example of EnergyPLAN pathways [24] 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Figure 2. Key inputs for conducting technical analyses in EnergyPLAN Algorithm 



S. Effiom et al. /Future Sustainability                                                                                             May 2025| Volume 03 | Issue 02 | Pages 08-15 

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Table 1. Assumptions and data for input for the adopted scenarios 

S/No Assumptions Data 

1 Present Energy Demand 
(TWh/year) 

32TWh/year 

2 Fuel Price (NGN500 - NGN600) 

3 Expected Wind power 
production 

14.87TWh, including 
onshore and offshore 

4 Variable Wind Production Between 0 and 50 MW in 
multiples of 5 MW 

5 Onshore/Offshore Wind 
Capacity in MW 

1103MW, and 2206MW 

6 Offshore Wind Capacity 
varied from 

2206MW to 6576MW 

 Heat Pump Capacity and Heat 
Pump COP 

500Mwe and 3.5 

 

3. Results and discussion 

3.1 Overview of results and observations 

This study examines the integration of wind power into 

Nigeria’s energy system, focusing on critical excess electricity 

production (CEEP), CO2 emissions, and fuel demand under 

different regulatory frameworks. The results highlight the 

feasibility of incorporating wind power while optimizing 

system performance through regulatory strategies, mainly 

heat pumps. The analysis further reveals the interaction 

between wind power output and key system performance 

indicators. However, the Critical Excess Electricity Production 

(CEEP) depicted in Figure 3, at zero wind production, CEEP is 

minimal at 0.92 TWh/year under Regulation 1. This indicates 

a reliance on conventional power sources with limited 

renewable energy input. CEEP rises progressively with 

increased wind production, peaking at 42.96 TWh/year at 50 

TWh/year wind production.  

 

 

 

Under Regulation 2 and Regulation 2 + heat pumps, as 

depicted in Figure 4, CEEP is reduced to zero across all 

scenarios, compared to Regulation 1 (Reference regulation), 

highlighting effective system regulation and energy 

optimization. The increase in CEEP without regulations 

underscores the challenge of balancing fluctuating renewable 

energy sources like wind power. The zero-CEEP under 

Regulation 2 demonstrates the system’s ability to absorb 

excess electricity through flexible energy solutions, such as 

integrating heat pumps and modifying heat production [36]. 

3.2 CO2 emissions 

As depicted in Figure 5, CO2 emissions decreased from 

52.71 Mt/year (no wind production) to 48.8 Mt/year at 50 

TWh/year wind production under Regulation 1. Regulation 2 

reduces to 43 Mt/year, while Regulation 2 with heat pumps 

lowers emissions further to 41.42 Mt/year at maximum wind 

production. This implies that increased wind power 

production substantially reduces reliance on fossil fuels, 

directly lowering CO2 emissions. Also, the enhanced reduction 

under Regulation 2+ heat pumps demonstrates the 

synergistic effect of integrating wind power with advanced 

energy systems. This aligns with global goals of achieving net-

zero emissions and highlights the importance of flexible 

system design in meeting environmental objectives. 

3.3 Primary energy supply (PES) and fuel demand 

As depicted in Figure 6, PES declines progressively from 

248.59 TWh/year (no wind) to 202.72 TWh/year at 

maximum wind production under Regulation 1, reflecting 

reduced fossil fuel dependency. Regarding fuel demand, 

Regulation 2 + heat pumps reduce fuel demand further than 

Regulation 1, achieving a range of 248.43 TWh/year to 230.25 

TWh/year at maximum wind production. The decreased PES 

and fuel demand indicate enhanced energy efficiency and 

reduced strain on conventional resources. Given the rising 

reliance on fossil fuels and the pressing need for renewable 

energy sources (RES), developing a fuel demand curve 

demonstrating the percentage utilization of renewable fuels 

within this study is imperative.  

 

 Figure 3. Critical Excess Electricity Production (CEEP) for Regulation 1 



S. Effiom et al. /Future Sustainability                                                                                             May 2025| Volume 03 | Issue 02 | Pages 08-15 

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Figure 4. Electricity excess production 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 5. CO2 emission 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 6. Fuel demand                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



S. Effiom et al. /Future Sustainability                                                                                             May 2025| Volume 03 | Issue 02 | Pages 08-15 

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Our findings unequivocally show that as wind power 

production varies, fuel demand consistently declines across 

Regulation 1, Regulation 2, and Regulation 2 with heat pumps, 

which aligns with the assumptions established. Additionally, 

with a maximum fuel demand of 250TWh/year, a further 

inclusion and variation of heat energy will gradually reduce 

the fuel demand to a critical level of 50-100 TWh/year, 

thereby achieving a proportionate utilization of the RES. 

These results highlight the feasibility of transitioning from 

fossil fuel-based to renewable energy systems while 

maintaining grid stability and efficiency. Therefore, 

implementing heat pumps and similar technologies enables 

better utilization of renewable resources, offering cost-

effective and sustainable energy solutions. 

3.4 Fuel savings 

Fuel savings demonstrate a steady improvement over 

the modeled periods (2030 and 2050), corresponding to 

declining fuel demand and increased wind power integration, 

as depicted in Table 2. Results from the National Renewable 

Energy Adoption (NREA) scenarios (NREA2030 and 

NREA2050 scenarios) were compared. Savings of up to 

116.41 TWh/year at 50 TWh/year wind production under the 

NREA2050 scenario underline the long-term benefits of 

renewable energy investment. Therefore, the fuel savings 

reflect the economic advantage of RES adoption, reducing 

operational costs and exposure to volatile fuel prices. Thus, 

transitioning to wind power and heat pumps represents a 

strategic investment in long-term energy sustainability for 

Nigeria. 

Table 2. Fuel Savings   

Wind  
prod. 
(Wh/year) 

Wind 
capacity 
(MW) 

Offshore  
(MW) 

Reference 
2030 

NREA 
2030 

NREA  
2050 
TWh/year 

0 0 0 0 -67.5 -142.56 
5 1103 0 4.57 -64.51 -138.45 
10 2206 0 9.15 -62.51 -134.58 
15 2206 822 13.74 -61.58 -131.74 
20 2206 1644 18.34 -61.31 -129.64 
25 2206 2466 22.93 -61.17 -128.11 
30 2206 3288 27.52 -60.62 -126.41 
35 2206 4110 32.1 -59.52 -124.37 
40 2206 4932 36.69 -57.99 -122.13 
45 2206 5754 41.28 -56.16 -119.47 
 

3.5 Projected trends of optimized wind energy 

utilization 

The analysis of modeled energy scenarios for 2030 and 

2050 provides critical insights into system optimization 

through wind power integration and flexible energy 

investments. Table 3 indicates a complete elimination of CEEP 

across all renewable energy adoption scenarios for 2030 and 

2050. This zero-waste outcome highlights the efficacy of 

incorporating wind energy alongside flexible system 

technologies like Combined Heat and Power (CHP) units and 

heat pumps. Initially, the reference case without wind energy 

shows CEEP values ranging from 0.92 TWh/year to 42.96 

TWh/year as wind production increases to 50 TWh/year. In 

contrast, all analyzed renewable energy adoption scenarios 

(NREA) achieve zero excess electricity production. This 

implies a significant leap in wind energy system utilization 

efficiency, preventing resource wastage and optimizing the 

grid’s capacity to integrate fluctuating wind energy. 

Table 3. Critical electricity excess production trends 

 

3.6 Fuel demand trends 

Table 4 shows a marked reduction, affirming the energy 

transition benefits of integrating wind power and 

implementing flexible energy technologies. For the 2030 

model year, primary fuel demand drops by 38%, from 248.59 

TWh/year in the reference case to 153.52 TWh/year under 

NREA scenarios. Also, for the 2050 model year, the reduction 

is even more pronounced, with fuel demand decreasing by 

65%, from 248.59 TWh/year in the reference case to 86.94 

TWh/year. This improvement highlights the long-term 

sustainability of wind energy production, reducing 

dependency on conventional energy sources. 

Table 4. Fuel demand trends 

 

4. Conclusions 

This study demonstrates that integrating wind power 

into Nigeria’s energy system can significantly reduce CO2 

emissions and fuel demand while minimizing CEEP under 

robust regulation. Quantifying these results highlights the 

practical viability of transitioning to renewable energy. The 

following conclusions are drawn from the findings: 

i. Without regulations, CEEP rises significantly with 

increased wind power production, underscoring the need 

for adaptive energy management strategies. Regulation 2 

and Regulation 2 + heat pumps successfully reduce CEEP to 

Wind 
prod. 
(Wh/year) 

Wind 
capacity 
(MW) 

Offshore  
(MW) 

Reference 
2030 

NREA 
2030 

NREA 
2050 
TWh/year 

0 0 0 0.92 0 0 
5 1103 0 2.64 0 0 
10 2206 0 5.58 0 0 
15 2206 822 9.32 0 0 
20 2206 1644 13.69 0 0 
25 2206 2466 18.37 0 0 
30 2206 3288 23.2 0 0 
35 2206 4110 28.11 0 0 
40 2206 4932 33.05 0 0 
0 0 0 0.92 0 0 

Wind 
prod. 
(Wh/year) 

Wind 
capacity 
(MW) 

Offshore  
(MW) 

Reference 
2030 

NREA 
2030 

NREA2050 
TWh/year 

0 0 0 248.59 182.12 105.87 

5 1103 0 244.02 178.03 102.91 

10 2206 0 239.44 173.93 100.62 

15 2206 822 234.85 169.85 97.97 

20 2206 1644 230.25 165.78 95.05 

25 2206 2466 225.66 161.82 92.83 

30 2206 3288 221.07 158.62 90.89 

35 2206 4110 216.49 156.56 88.75 

40 2206 4932 211.9 155.19 87.57 

45 2206 5754 207.31 154.2 87.21 

50 2206 6576 202.72 153.52 86.94 



S. Effiom et al. /Future Sustainability                                                                                             May 2025| Volume 03 | Issue 02 | Pages 08-15 

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zero, demonstrating their effectiveness in optimizing 

energy use and mitigating resource wastage. These results 

affirm the importance of system flexibility and regulation 

in harnessing the full potential of renewable energy. 

ii. Wind power integration effectively reduces CO2 emissions, 

with further reductions achieved through Regulation 2 + 

heat pumps. This demonstrates a synergistic relationship 

between renewable energy adoption and advanced energy 

solutions, aligning with global efforts toward carbon 

neutrality. The observed decline from 52.71 Mt/year to 

41.42 Mt/year under maximum wind power production 

emphasizes the environmental benefits of the proposed 

system. 

iii. Increasing wind power production reduces reliance 

on fossil fuels, as reflected in the declining PES values. 

Including heat pumps further enhances fuel demand 

efficiency, achieving a critical reduction to sustainable 

levels. By 2050, the NREA2050 scenario projects fuel 

demand reductions of up to 65%, highlighting the 

transformative potential of renewable energy adoption. 

iv. Substantial fuel savings were observed, with reductions of 

up to 116.41 TWh/year under NREA2050 scenarios. These 

savings highlight the economic advantages of wind energy 

and the reduced exposure to fuel price volatility. The 

strategic integration of wind power and heat pumps 

demonstrates their viability as long-term investments in 

energy sustainability. 

v. Modeled scenarios for 2030 and 2050 reveal progressive 

improvements in system efficiency, including the complete 

elimination of CEEP and significant reductions in fuel 

demand. These trends emphasize the importance of 

adopting renewable energy and flexible system designs, 

ensuring Nigeria's resilient and sustainable energy future. 

The findings validate the feasibility of transitioning from a 

fossil fuel-based system to a renewable energy-centric 

system in Nigeria. Wind energy integration, supported by 

advanced energy solutions like heat pumps and system 

optimization for efficient energy supply, offers a pathway to 

achieving grid stability, economic efficiency, and 

environmental sustainability.  

Ethical issue 
The authors are aware of and comply with best practices in 
publication ethics, specifically with regard to authorship 
(avoidance of guest authorship), dual submission, 
manipulation of figures, competing interests, and compliance 
with policies on research ethics. The authors adhere to 
publication requirements that the submitted work is original 
and has not been published elsewhere. 

Data availability statement 
The manuscript contains all the data. However, more data will 

be available upon request from the authors. 

Conflict of interest 

The authors declare no potential conflict of interest. 

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