







































89 

GeoPlanning 
Journal of Geomatics and Planning                                                                                                                  Vol. 9, No. 2, 2022 

 

Original Research 

The Correlation Between Urban Development 

and Land Surface Temperature Change in 

Palembang City 

Nadiya T. Utami1, Bitta Pigawati1* 

1. Diponegoro University, Indonesia  

DOI: 10.14710/geoplanning.9.2.89-102 

Abstract 

Palembang city has experienced an increase in its population. Population growth results in an increase in activities which 

enlarge the built-up areas. The increase of built-up areas is one of the indicators of urban growth. The increase in built-up 

areas is inversely proportional to the vegetation area. Reduced vegetation area might cause an increase in land surface 

temperature. The aim of the study was to analyze the correlation between urban growth and changes in land surface 

temperature in Palembang City using descriptive quantitative method and spatial analysis on the data obtained from remote 

sensing images. The result shows that in 1998-2018, Palembang City has developed to the north (Sukarami District) and 

to the west (Ilir Barat I District). There has been an increase in the temperature, documented as 2.12°C. There is a 

correlation between urban growth and changes in land surface temperature in Palembang City. 

Copyright © 2022 GJGP-Undip 

This open access article is distributed under a  

Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY-NC-SA) 4.0 International license 

1. Introduction  

Urban areas are experiencing continuous population growth. Urbanization has an impact on high 

population growth and an increase in the number of urban population to 68% by 2050 (United Nations, 2018). 

Complete facilities and job opportunities are attractive factors for population movement (Rana & Parves, 2011). 

There is a particular type of relationship between the expansion of the residential area and the distance from the 

CBD that is affected by the availability of land and the location of facilities (Pigawati et al., 2019). High number 

of population results in a larger need for space, which implies increasing built-up areas (Sakti, 2016).  

Limited urban land causes land expansion (Inostroza et al., 2010; Son et al., 2020). Increasing built-up area 

is an indicator of urban expansion. The large number of physical developments resulted in increasing built-up 

area of the city (Radhinal & Ariyanto, 2017). Limited land availability in urban areas has led to the development 

of population activities towards suburban areas (Barros, 2004; Parés-Ramos et al., 2013; Pigawati et al., 2017). 

The activities of urban residents are mostly carried out on built-up land, so they tend to reduce the vegetated 

areas. The rapid development of bulit-up area is inversely proportional to the vegetated land. An increase of 

built-up areas results in a decrease of vegetated area. The reduction of vegetation may causes several negative 

impacts such as increasing land surface temperature (El-Hattab et al., 2018; Mathew et al., 2018; Ullah et al., 

2019), initiating urban heat island (the temperature in city center is higher than the temperature in suburbs) 

(Choudhury et al., 2019; Ramachandra, 2012), and climate changes (Ullah et al., 2019). 

Climate change can worsen environmental conditions, increasing the risk of drought, flooding and 

extreme temperatures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that the impact of climate 

change is getting worse and requires serious handling (Watts, 2018). Countries in the world, have formed the 

United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change (UNFCCC) resulted Paris Agreement in 2015 

e-ISSN: 2355-6544 
 
Received: 31 January 2021;  
Accepted: 22 November 2022;  
Published: 08 December 2022. 
 
Keywords:  
Urban Development, Built-Up Area, 
Land Cover, Land Surface 
Temperatute 
 
*Corresponding author(s)  
email: bitta.pigawati@pwk.undip.ac.id 
 
 

 

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mailto:bitta.pigawati@pwk.undip.ac.id


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aimed at limiting the rise of temperature surface between 1.5 ° C - 2 ° C. Indonesia as a member of the UNFCCC 

has implemented the agreement stated in the Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 16 of 2016. 

Indonesia is a developing country, so the characteristics of cities in Indonesia tend to continue 

experiencing population increases, changes in land use and land cover. Population growth is closely related to 

changes in land use and land cover (Land Use and Land Cover Change/LULCC). The phenomenon of increasing 

the built-up area in an urban area shows that the city is experiencing development. Changes in land use and land 

cover can encourage urban development (Belal & Moghanm, 2011; Hegazy & Kaloop, 2015).  

Changes in vegetated land to built-up land can cause changes in temperature. Based on the results of 

research conducted by Wang et al., (2019) in the Pearl River Delta area, there has been an increase in temperature 

in areas that have changed vegetation land cover into developed land. Palembang City has experienced a change 

in the distribution of land surface temperatures in 2001-2010 (Fajar, 2010).  

This study aimed to analyze the correlation between urban development and land surface temperature 

change in Palembang City. The research has used the quantitative descriptive method and spatial analysis using 

the Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing technology. Remote sensing methods can be used to 

analyze urban development (Banzhaf et al., 2009; Belal & Moghanm, 2011). Figure 1 shows study area location, 

 

 
Source: SAS PLANET, 2020 

Figure 1. Study Area Palembang City  

 

2. Data and Methods 

This research aimed to analyze correlation between urban develpoment and land surface temperature 

change in Palembang City. Using images as its main data, which were obtained from Landsat 5 TM for the data 

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of 1998 and 2008, and Landsat 8 OLI for the data of 2018. Before conducting spatial analysis, images were 

processed for radiometric correction, geometric collection, cropping and cloud masking. The steps of the analysis 

were as follows: a). Analysis of land use change in the study area for twenty-year period; b). Analysis of Urban 

Develppment Palembang City for twenty-year period; c). Analysis of land cover change in the study area for 

twenty-year period; d). Analysis of land surface temperature change for twenty-year period; e). Analysis of 

correlation between urban develpoment and land surface temperature change in the study area. Figure 2 shows 

a flow chart relating to the methods and analysis used, 

 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

Figure 2. Research Analysis Flow Chart 

Land-use changes were identified by interpreting verified images which were obtained from Google Earth, 

such as Landsat/Copernicus images (in 1998 and 2008) and CNES/Airbus images (in 2018). Image 

interpretation was conducted by using the following parameters, namely, tone and color, texture, shape, size, 

pattern, location, shadow, and association (Iryadi et al., 2017). Interpretation on images was adjusted to modified 

land-use classifications proposed by Anderson et al. (1976) which consist of industrial, settlement, commercials 

and services, and non-built-up area. The development of Palembang City and its direction can be determined 

based on the expansion of the built up area in 1998-2018. 

Land-cover changes analysis can be done by utilizing multi-temporal images to identify changes in 1998, 

2008, 2018. Land cover can be identified directly using images which are verified using images from Google 

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Earth, that are Landsat/Copernicus images (data of 1998 an0d 2008) and CNES/Airbus images (data of 2018). 

Training sample based on Campbell’s standard (Danoedoro, 2012) which requires a minimum of 100 samples 

which are categorized as land coverage based on the modification of National Standardization Agency of 

Indonesia which consists of agriculture, water bodies, vegetation, and open space. Classification of land cover 

was conducted by guided classification technique using Gaussian Mixture Method (GMM) (Sejati et al., 2019).  

The analized Land surface temperature change in Palembang City can be done by processing the 

temperature data of 1998 and 2008 based on images from Landsat 5 TM (band 6), while the temperature data 

2018 were analyzed based on images from Landsat 8 OLI (band 10). The analysis is carried out by calculating 

the Thermal Brightness which is the temperature recorded by the sensor without regard to other factors. The 

analysis process included conversion of digital number to TOA radiance, conversion of spectral radiance to 

brightness temperatures and conversion of land surface temperatures to Celsius scale. 

The correlation between urban develpoment and land surface temperature change in Palembang City was 

analyzed using simple linear regression method. This statistical method aims to examine the causal relationship 

between the independent variable (X) and the dependent variable (Y). In this study, the variable Y (the dependent 

variable) is the impact caused by the variable X (the independent variable). Average land surface temperature is 

the Y factor (the dependent variable) while the built-up area in 1998, 2008, and 2018 were the X factors or the 

independent variables. Spatial modeling validation method in this study is the KAPA Index. This is done by 

comparing the results of the model with real conditions in the field. Of the 100 samples taken, 70% -80% are 

valid, so the model can be used as material for analysis. 

3. Result and Discussion 

3.1. Land-use Changes  

Land-use in Palembang City consists of the area of settlement, commercials and services, 

industrial, and non-built-up area. The settlement area takes up most of Palembang City. The settlement 

area in Palembang City in 2018 was 13857.49 Ha (34.59%). The settlement area is concentrated in the 

center of Palembang City along Musi River. Settlement area in Palembang started to sprawl to non-

built-up area in 2018, as observed in Sukarami District. The area of commercials and services was 

initially observed along Musi River which is known as the origin of trade center in Palembang, then 

expands along the arterial and collector roads as observed in Jakabaring District. The industrial area 

was initially located on the banks of the Musi River, which is accessible by water transportation. The 

industrial area then developed in Kertapati and Gandus Districts, which are located along the Musi 

River but far from residential area. 

The biggest land-use change in Palembang City observed in 1998-2018 was the settlement area, 

recorded at 7754.12 Ha. There was an increase of settlement area to 127.05% in 1998-2018 where the 

biggest change was located in Sukarami District, recorded at 1714.20 Ha (343.74%). The percentage of 

land-use changes in Palembang City in 1998-2018 according to the category is presented in Table 1. 

Sukarami District is the area with the largest change to settlement area in Palembang City. Sukarami 

District is passed by arterial road and here is the location of Sultan Mahmud Badaruddin II Airport as a means 

of air transportation for Palembang City. The an airport has an influence on changes in land use in the 

surrounding area (Kusumawati et al., 2016).  

Alang-Alang Lebar and Kertapati Districts are the districts with the biggest land-use change for industrial 

area in Palembang City, supported by good accessibility. Alang-Alang Lebar District is located in northern 

Palembang, passed by arterial road and the location of Alang-Alang Lebar Type A Bus Station, and closed to 

Sultan Mahmud Badaruddin II International Airport. Kertapati District is located in southern Palembang, passed 

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by arterial road, and the location of Kertapati Type A Train Station, as well as located at the banks of Musi 

River. Figure 3 shows spatial distribution of land-use changes in Palembang City in 1998-2018. 

Table 1. Land-use Changes in Palembang City in 1998-2018 

No. District 
Settlement 
1998-2018 

Trade and Services 
1998-2018 

Industry  
1998-2018 

Non-Built Up  
1998-2018 

Ha % Ha % Ha % Ha % 

1. 
Alang-Alang 
Lebar 

547.62 124.22 87.24 42.50 125.74 173.20 -760.60 -47.68 

2. Bukit Kecil 25.73 22.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -25.73 -69.51 
3. Gandus 796.99 251.51 0.00 0.00 14.17 16.35 -811.16 -10.46 
4. Ilir Barat I 1300.90 164.19 151.36 107.68 28.83 51.17 -1481.09 -32.21 
5. Ilir Barat II 83.95 30.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -83.95 -61.89 
6. Ilir Timur I 13.34 4.73 19.82 11.32 0.00 0.00 -33.16 -69.29 
7. Ilir Timur II 120.72 27.82 28.45 40.73 70.00 77.39 -219.17 -39.58 
8. Ilir Timur III 68.00 19.72 114.87 161.99 0.00 0.00 -182.87 -62.48 
9. Jakabaring 243.84 106.41 78.68 115.57 31.54 106.02 -354.06 -45.16 
10. Kalidoni 744.57 210.69 14.05 13.83 1.80 4.04 -760.42 -29.97 
11. Kemuning 108.95 27.60 32.54 33.74 0.00 0.00 -141.49 -73.00 
12. Kertapati 339.93 94.32 10.33 202.15 208.63 158.85 -558.89 -14.67 
13. Plaju 191.15 79.64 0.00 0.00 100.00 61.50 -291.15 -30.99 
14. Sako 507.10 137.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -507.10 -40.32 

15. 
Seberang Ulu 
I 

117.32 47.34 13.87 24.79 0.00 0.00 -131.19 -48.73 

16. 
Seberang Ulu 
II 

347.00 118.56 0.00 0.00 1.30 32.91 -348.30 -57.48 

17. 
Sematang 
Borang 

482.83 403.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -482.83 -19.00 

18. Sukarami 1714.20 343.76 347.74 98.76 15.00 32.38 -2076.94 -56.64 

Palembang City 7754.12 127.05 898.95 58.46 597.01 74.33 -9250.08 -29.26 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

 

 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

Figure 3. Land-use Changes in Palembang in 1998-2018 

 

 

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3.2. Urban Development of Palembang 

The development of Palembang City and its direction can be determined based on the expansion of the 

built-up area in 1998-2018. The built-up area in Palembang City has been increasing in the period of observed 

years, documented at 8444.28 Ha (21.08%) in 1998, 12671.18 Ha (31.63%) in 2008, and 17694.35 Ha (44.17%) in 

2018. Sukarami District is the district with the biggest built-up area, documented at 2974.03 Ha (16.81%). The 

growth has begun to occur in the suburban area because of the limited area and expensive land prices in urban 

area (Prihatin, 2016).  

Spatially, built-up area in Palembang in 1998 was mostly observed in the center of Palembang City, along 

Musi River, in the following districts: Ilir Timur I, Bukit Kecil, Ilir Timur II, Ilir Timur III, and Seberang Ulu 

I. Boom Baru Port is located in Ilir Timur II District as the gate of distributions of goods and means of 

transportations in Palembang, and has a significant impact on the development of its surrounding area. In 2018, 

the built-up area had developed to the northern (Sukarami District) and western (Ilir Barat I District) suburbs 

of Palembang City. Figure 4. presents the built-up area in Palembang City in 1998, 2008, and 2018.  

 

 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

Figure 4. Built-up Area in Palembang City in 1998, 2008, and 2018  

The built-up area in Palembang City in 1998-2018 was documented at 4202.34 Ha (10.49% of the area of 

Palembang City). The built-up area continued to increase to 35.51% in 1998-2018 which mostly located in 

Sukarami District, recorded at 1091.85 Ha (64.07%). The percentage of changes in built-up area is presented in 

Table 2, 

The area with the largest changes to built-up areas was located in the northern Palembang (Sukarami 

District, which borders Banyuasin Regency). The changes in built-up area were a result of initial built-up area. 

In some areas, a sprawling was observed in the surrounding area of initial built-up area (in 1998), like in 

Sematang Borang District. Changes in built-up areas is irregular and unplanned. The result of overlaying built-

up areas in 1998 and 2018 confirms the development of built-up areas on non-built-up areas. It shows that the 

development of built-up areas goes in line with the decrease of non-built-up areas (Subasinghe et al., 2016). 

Figure 5 shows changes in built-up area in Palembang in 1998-2018. 

 

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Table 2. Built-up Area and Non-Built-up Area in Palembang City in 1998-2018 

No. District 
Built Up Change Non-Built Up Change 

1998 2018 Ha % 1998 2018 Ha % 

1 
Alang-Alang 
Lebar 

718.72 1479.32 760.60 105.83 1595.28 834.68 -760.60 -47.68 

2 Bukit Kecil 184.99 210.71 25.73 13.91 37.01 11.29 -25.73 -69.51 

3 Gandus 405.60 1216.76 811.16 199.99 7751.40 6940.24 -811.16 -10.46 

4 Ilir Barat I 989.24 2470.32 1481.09 149.72 4597.77 3116.68 -1481.09 -32.21 

5 Ilir Barat II 276.35 360.30 83.95 30.38 135.65 51.70 -83.95 -61.89 

6 Ilir Timur I 457.15 490.31 33.16 7.25 47.85 14.70 -33.16 -69.29 

7 Ilir Timur II 594.28 813.45 219.17 36.88 553.72 334.55 -219.17 -39.58 

8 Ilir Timur III 425.32 608.19 182.88 43.00 292.68 109.81 -182.88 -62.48 

9 Jakabaring 326.98 681.04 354.06 108.28 784.02 429.96 -354.06 -45.16 

10 Kalidoni 499.50 1259.91 760.42 152.24 2537.51 1777.09 -760.42 -29.97 

11 Kemuning 497.18 638.67 141.49 28.46 193.82 52.34 -141.49 -73.00 

12 Kertapati 496.84 1055.73 558.89 112.49 3809.16 3250.27 -558.89 -14.67 

13 Plaju 453.41 744.56 291.15 64.21 939.59 648.44 -291.15 -30.99 

14 Sako 444.24 951.34 507.10 114.15 1257.76 750.66 -507.10 -40.32 

15 Seberang Ulu I 303.80 435.00 131.19 43.18 269.20 138.01 -131.19 -48.73 

16 Seberang Ulu II 354.02 702.31 348.30 98.39 605.99 257.69 -348.30 -57.48 

17 Sematang Borang 119.58 602.41 482.83 403.76 2541.42 2058.59 -482.83 -19.00 

18 Sukarami 897.09 2974.03 2076.94 231.52 3666.91 1589.97 -2076.94 -56.64 

Palembang City 8444.28 17694.35 9250.07 109.54 31616.72 22366.65 -9250.07 -29.26 

Source: Analysis, 2022 

 

 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

Figure 5. Changes in Built-up Area in Palembang in 1998-2018 

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The growth of Palembang City can be measured from the size of built-up areas and the areas that 

experiencing an increase in built-up areas. All areas have experienced an increase in their built-up areas but the 

district with the largest change was observed in Sukarami District 2076.94 Ha (231.52%) and Ilir Barat I District 

1481.09 Ha (149.72%). While the district experiencing the most rapid growth is Sematang Borang, where the 

size of built-up area was documented as 482.83 Ha (403.76%). 

Sukarami District is located in northern Palembang, direct border with Banyuasin Regency. The district 

has good accessibility, passed by arterial and collector road, location of Sultan Mahmud Badaruddin II Type A 

Airport, and close to Type A Bus Station in Alang-alang Lebar District. All those factors support the growth of 

built-up areas in Sukarami District. Furthermore, Ilir Barat I District has extensive growth because its strategic 

location, close to the center of activities in Palembang City that are Ilir Timur I and Bukit Kecil Districts. The 

usage of built-up areas in the city center causing the extension of activities to its surrounding areas, Ilir Barat I 

District. Next, the growth of Sematang Borang District is influenced by collector roads that increase the 

accessibility in the area. Based on the table of built-up area development, it can be concluded that Palembang 

City has developed to many directions, yet the areas having the biggest growth are the north and the west of 

Palembang. Figure 6 shows the direction of urban development in Palembang in 1998-2018. 

 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

Figure 6. The Direction of Urban Development of Palembang in 1998-2018 

 

 

3.3. Land-cover Changes in Palembang 

Land-cover classification system consists of agricultural areas, water bodies, built-up areas, vegetation, 
and open spaces. In 1998, land cover in Palembang was dominated by agricultural areas. In 2008 and 2018, it 
was dominated by built-up areas. Built-up area in Palembang was recorded at 17,694.35 Ha (44.17%) in 2018. 
Most of the area was located in Sukarami District that is 2,974.03 Ha (16.61%).  

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Palembang City has experienced significant land-cover changes. During 1998-2018, built-up areas and 
water bodies were increasing, while agricultural areas, vegetation, and open spaces were decreasing. Built-up 
area covered up to 9,250.07 Ha (109.54%), whereas vegetation decreased to 4,014.67 Ha (34.97%).  

The biggest change in built-up area was observed in Sukarami District which was recorded at 2,076.94 
Ha (231.52%), whereas the area having the least change in built-up area was Bukit Kecil District, 25.73 Ha 
(13.91%). The area with the largest decrease in vegetation was Gandus District, 1,724.11 Ha (51.01%), while the 
area with the least decrease in vegetation was Ilir Timur I District 1.80 Ha (53.63%). Table 3 presents percentage 
of land-use change in Palembang City. 

Table 3. Land Cover Changes in Palembang in 1998-2018 

No. District 
Agriculture  
1998-2018 

Water Body 
1998-2018 

Built Up 
1998-2018 

Vegetation 
 1998-2018 

Open Space 
1998-2018 

Ha % Ha % Ha % Ha % Ha % 

1. 
Alang-
Alang Lebar 

-406.66 -66.32 1.70 1700.00 760.60 105.83 -330.94 -47.46 -24.70 -8.68 

2. Bukit Kecil -3.33 -90.23 0.00 0.00 25.73 13.91 -3.10 -79.35 -19.30 -94.70 

3. Gandus 946.54 35.55 0.00 0.00 811.16 199.99 -1724.11 -51.01 -33.59 -2.62 

4. Ilir Barat I 
-

1324.96 
-68.46 0.00 0.00 1481.09 149.72 -124.54 -5.80 -31.59 -6.19 

5. Ilir Barat II -38.81 -82.10 0.00 0.00 83.95 30.38 -26.51 -92.63 -18.62 -61.44 

6. Ilir Timur I -3.72 -80.64 0.00 0.00 33.16 7.25 -2.30 -67.25 -27.14 -95.46 

7. Ilir Timur II -88.82 -73.49 0.00 0.00 219.17 36.88 -89.99 -56.82 -40.34 -65.28 

8. 
Ilir Timur 
III 

-71.05 -67.87 0.94 12.70 182.88 43.00 -53.11 -61.80 -59.65 -63.02 

9. Jakabaring -271.20 -59.98 0.00 0.00 354.06 108.28 -20.13 -14.67 -62.73 -46.65 

10. Kalidoni -201.28 -19.20 0.00 0.00 760.42 152.24 -327.16 -39.60 -231.98 -66.17 

11. Kemuning -57.78 -73.92 0.90 200.00 141.49 28.46 -41.08 -78.25 -43.52 -69.41 

12. Kertapati -135.19 -6.12 0.00 0.00 558.89 112.49 -328.74 -31.15 -94.95 -40.99 

13. Plaju -277.80 -48.29 31.62 18.93 291.15 64.21 -13.39 -21.79 -31.58 -23.25 

14. Sako -250.52 -54.12 0.18 100.00 507.10 114.15 -118.30 -25.97 -138.46 -40.83 

15. 
Seberang 
Ulu I 

-109.86 -70.38 0.00 0.00 131.19 43.18 -12.49 -47.21 -8.85 -23.27 

16. 
Seberang 
Ulu II 

-214.63 -65.24 7.80 8.60 348.30 98.39 -117.98 -80.64 -23.49 -58.82 

17. 
Sematang 
Borang 

-385.43 -31.63 0.32 1270.19 482.83 403.76 -67.67 -5.70 -30.04 -22.25 

18. Sukarami -936.68 -54.00 2.97 471.43 2076.94 231.52 -613.11 -59.81 -530.13 -58.47 

Palembang City -3831.18 -27.85 46.43 2.74 9250.07 109.54 -4014.67 -34.97 -1450.65 -30.95 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

The image of land cover in 1998 which was overlayed with land cover in 2018 shows that there is a 

noticeable increase of built-up areas in Palembang City. Land cover which was recorded as agricultural areas, 

vegetation, and open spaces in 1998, has changed into built-up areas in 2018. It indicates that land-cover changes 

occurred in Palembang City in1998-2018. Figure 7 shows spatial distribution of land-cover changes in 

Palembang Cities in 1998-2018.  

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Source: Analysis, 2022 

Figure 7. Changes in Built-up Area in Palembang in 1998-2018 

 

3.4. Land Surface Temperature Change in Palembang City 

Land surface temperature is categorized into four groups, namely <22°C, 22-24°C, 25-27°C, and >27°C. 

In 1998, the largest distribution of land surface temperature was reported in the category of 22-24°C, 

documented as 26,760.08 Ha (66.80%). While in 2008 and 2018, the largest distribution was reported in the 

category of 25-27°C, documented as 22,977.80 Ha (57.36%), which mostly located in Gandus District, 

documented as 3,502.47 Ha (15.24%). In the category of highest temperature, >27°C, the area was documented 

as 7,160.67 Ha (17.87%) which mostly located in Ilir Barat I District, documented as 795.95 Ha (11.12%). 

Land surface temperature distribution in Palembang City had changed during 1998-2018. The noticeable 

decrease in land surface temperature distribution was in the following categories: <22°C and 22-24°C. The 

largest decrease in land surface temperature distribution was in the category of 22-24°C, documented as 

21,580.30 Ha (80.64%) which mostly located in in Ilir Barat I District, documented as 3,485.20 Ha (75.90%). 

 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

Figure 8. Changes in Land Surface Temperature in Palembang in 1998-2018 

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Land surface temperature categories that had noticeable increase were 25-27°C and >27°C. The largest 

increase was in the category of 25-27°C, documented as 16,346.98 Ha (246.53%) which mostly located in 

Sematang Borang District, 3,428.11 Ha (1668.42%). During 1998-2018, in the category of >27°C, an increase of 

5,478.90 Ha (325.78%) was documented and mostly located in Sukarami District, 701.30 Ha (1508.17 %). Figure 

8 shows spatial distribution of land surface temperature in Palembang City in 1998-2018. 

The average land surface temperature increased during the observation period in 1998-2018. The average 

land surface temperature in 1998 was 23.29°C while in 2018, the average was recorded at 25.41°C, confirming 

an increase at 2.12°C. According to Howard (1820), average city temperature in 1797-1816 was considered 

normal at 15-20°C, which means that land surface temperature in Palembang is 5°C higher than normal 

temperature in cities in 1797-1816. Temperature increase, which was documented at 2.12°C, is higher than 

allowed temperature increase based on Paris Agreement that is 1.5-2°C. An intervention on temperature increase 

is needed to reduce the impact of climate changes in Palembang City. Table 4 shows the average Land Surface 

Temperature in Palembang City in 1998, 2008, and 2018.  

Table 4. Average Land Surface Temperature in Palembang City in 1998, 2008, and 2018 (°C) 
 

No. District 
The Average of Land Surface Temperature (°C) 

1998 2008 2018 
1. Alang-Alang Lebar 23.85 25.45 26.19 
2. Bukit Kecil 28.43 27.78 28.99 
3. Gandus 21.29 22.39 23.01 
4. Ilir Barat I 23.60 25.31 23.95 
5. Ilir Barat II 26.20 25.39 28.39 
6. Ilir Timur I 28.65 27.94 29.22 
7. Ilir Timur II 24.74 25.21 27.45 
8. Ilir Timur III 26.06 26.55 28.15 
9. Jakabaring 23.64 24.24 26.88 

10. Kalidoni 23.12 24.52 25.79 

11. Kemuning 26.86 27.36 28.88 
12. Kertapati 22.92 21.89 25.88 
13. Plaju 23.59 25.19 26.82 
14. Sako 24.02 25.55 26.20 
15. Seberang Ulu I 25.15 24.50 27.91 
16. Seberang Ulu II 24.06 24.78 27.72 
17. Sematang Borang 23.01 23.93 25.74 
18. Sukarami 23.57 25.28 25.98 

Palembang City 23.29 24.26 25.41 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

3.5. The Correlation Between Urban Development and Land Surface Temperature Change in 
Palembang City 

The analysis on correlation between urban development and land surface temperature was aimed to 

observe the impact of urban development to the changes in land surface temperature in Palembang City in the 

period of 1998-2018. Data obtained for the analysis were the built-up area as the independent variable and land 

surface temperature as the dependent variable. The data were documented in 1998-2018. The data were analyzed 

using simple linear regression on SPSS to determine the correlation between urban development and land surface 

temperature in Palembang City in 1998-2018. 

The average land surface temperature and built-up area in Palembang City had increased steadily in 1998, 

2008, and 2018. The districts which experienced consistent increase of average land surface temperature and 

built-up area were Alang-Alang Lebar, Gandus, Jakabaring, Kalidoni, Sako, Seberang Ulu I, Seberang Ulu II, 

Sematang Borang, and Sukarami. Sukarami district were the district with the highest average land surface 

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temperature, which were recorded at 29.22°C in 2018, while Gandus District was the lowest, recorded at 23.01°C 

in 2018. Table 5 presents the average land surface temperature and built-up area in Palembang City. 

Table 5. Average Land Surface Temperature and Built-up Area in Palembang City in 1998, 2008, and 2018 

The Average of Land Surface Temperature (°C) Built Up Area (Ha) 

1998 2008 2018 1998 2008 2018 

23.29 24.26 25.41 11833.43 14079.76 16035.77 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

Data obtained for analysis were considered as abnormal, so that data pre-processing step was conducted 

by data transformation. Data transformation is conducted so that the data achieve normality prior to regression 

(Priguno & Hadiprajitno, 2013). The hypotheses were: 

H0 : There are no correlations between urban development and land surface temperature changes in Palembang  
City in 1998, 2008, dan 2018 

H1 : There is a correlation between urban development and land surface temperature changes in Palembang   
City in 1998, 2008, dan 2018 

The analysis using simple linear regression method resulted in an equation where Y= 4.343+0.005 X. The 

analysis resulted in positive value with significance level 0.029 or less than 0.05 (probability), indicating a 

correlation between urban development and land surface temperature changes. R value at 0.999 shows that the 

correlation is strong. R-square value or Coefficient of Determination at 0.998 or 99.8% shows that the variable 

of built-up area contributes 99.8% to the variable of average land surface temperature while 0.02% is determined 

by other factors. It can be established that urban development correlates with land surface temperature. Figure 

9 presents the result of linear regression analysis on the correlation between urban development and land surface 

temperature changes in Palembang City. 

 
Source: Analysis, 2022 

Figure 9. Result of Simple Linear Regression on The Correlation Between  
Urban Development and Land Surface Temperature in Palembang City in 1998, 2008, and 2018 

The results of this study are in accordance with land surface temperature studies that have been conducted 

at the locations of Semarang Metropoliran Region, Asansol-Durgapur Development Region and San Salvador. 

(Choudhury et al., 2019; Sejati et al., 2019; Son et al., 2020) So that the results of this study are able to show the 

correlation between urban development and land surface temperature in Palembang City. 

4. Conclusion 

Palembang City is expanding in all directions. The largest increase in built up areas occurred in Sukarami 

District and Ilir Barat I District. During period of twenty-years (1998-2018) the development of Palembang City 

towards the North and West (Sukarami District and Ilir Barat I District). The decrease in the area of vegetated 

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land is significant with the reduced built-up area. In Palembang, there was an increase in land surface 

temperature of 2.12°C in a twenty-years (1998-2018). This indicates that Palembang City has exceeded the 

threshold for land surface temperature increase based on the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement (1.5-2°C). The 

results of this study indicate that there is a correlation between urban development and land surface temperature 

change in Palembang City. The correlation is positive with a significance of 0.029, R is 0.999 and the coefficient 

of determination is 0.998 or 99.8%. This research was conducted on a regional scale, it would be better if further 

research could be analyzed with a detailed scope 

5. Acknowledgments 

Thanks to all staff in Palembang Regional Planning Agency (Bappeda), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) as the 

institution of data providers and Department of Urban and Regional Planning of Diponegoro University for 

providing us opportunity to conduct research. 

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