









































An Evaluation of the Human 
Impact of Climatic Factors in Cook

County, Illinois
Shankar Thiru

Volume Two
Edition Two
Spring 2022

 
GEORGETOWN SCIENTIFIC
RESEARCH JOURNAL

70



Georgetown	Scientific	Research	Journal	

An Evaluation of the Human Impact of Climatic Factors in Cook 
County, Illinois 

Shankar Thiru 

Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. 
E-mail: sst61@georgetown.edu
https://doi.org/10.48091/gsr.v2i2.48

Abstract 

Global warming, or more precisely global climate change, has garnered increasing recognition in the last 
few decades. However, what may not be immediately apparent are its local effects; the local manifestations 
of climate change in Cook County, Illinois are alarming. Observed changes in the climate have been 
persistent for decades or even longer. Projected temperatures are expected to rise, and consequently, 
flooding will increase. This study aims to correlate these climatic changes to the exacerbation of 
environmental injustices inherent due to the historical redlining practices of Cook County. The evidence 
suggests that climatic factors, such as flooding and rising temperatures, have played a compounding role 
in the obstacles faced by disadvantaged communities residing in Cook County.  

Keywords: environmental injustices, climate change, redlining

1. Introduction

In 2010, the United Nations Framework made 
a statement on climate change: “To prevent 
dangerous interference with the climate system, 
the scientific view is that the increase in global 
temperature should be below 2 °C [relative to
preindustrial levels].”1 Similarly, many institutions 
have recognized the impending calamity if global 
climate change remains unaddressed. However, 
climate change’s impact on specific local 
communities has largely gone unnoticed. One such 
community that has had to endure especially 
challenging environmental conditions is Cook 
County, Illinois. 

1.1 Climate Changes and the Local Environment 
A tangible outcome of climate change in Cook 

County is the rise in temperature. Since 1850, 
there has been an observed 1.5 °C
increase in temperature, and temperatures are 
expected to increase by an additional 1.8 °C – 6 °C
through the year 2100.2

Figure 1. Mean daily temperature maximum for Cook County, Illinois in the past (grey) and the projected future 
under high (red) and low (blue) emission scenarios. Source: NOAA Climate Explorer.

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Georgetown	Scientific	Research	Journal	

The highest mean maximum temperature in 
1950 is projected to be the lowest mean maximum 
temperature of 2100, as indicated by the black 
dotted line (Figure 1). Essentially, if carbon 
emissions rise at the current rate they are doing 
now – somewhere between the red and blue 
scenario – temperatures will increase to dangerous 
levels. In fact, for fourteen of the past twenty years, 
Cook County’s average temperature has exceeded 
the 20th century average.2 Furthermore, from 1895 
to 2021, there has been an observed average change 
of +0.1 °C per decade. This evident temperature
increase will have profound impacts on the local 
environment., such as flooding.  

Not only are temperatures generally increasing, 
but rather, the extremity and severity of these 
temperatures are as well. This is evident in the 
abundance of very hot days (quantified as above 90 
°F) and extremely hot days (quantified as above
100 °F).3 The abundance of very hot days in
Chicago counties is expected to increase from the 
current number of 25 to 36 days by the end of the 
century under low emissions, and 72 days under 
high emissions (Figure 2). Currently, extremely 
hot days are uncommon. However, by the end of 
the century there may be over 30 days of this type 
per year under high emissions and 8 days under 
low emissions.  

This climatic pattern could have implications 
on the local environment for Cook County by 
inducing heat stress during these heat waves. 
Furthermore, with vegetation and animals finding 
themselves in unanticipated circumstances, the 
entire ecosystem is likely to undergo drastic 
changes as certain species will become extinct due 
to inability to adapt adequately. 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 
Historically, the relationship between 

temperature and precipitation has not been 
straightforward. However, typically, wet regions 
tend to get wetter and dry regions become drier 
during temperature increases.4 Cook County is 
considered a wet region, and so with the increased 
heat, there is an anticipated increase in wetness and 
precipitation. A reason is that increased 
temperatures result in earlier melting periods and 

Figure 2. Projected frequency of 90 °°F and 100 °°F days
per year in Chicago counties under low emissions 
scenario (light green & light purple) and a high 
emissions scenario (dark green & dark purple) for the 
tri-decadal periods of 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 
2070-2099. The grey and black bars represent historical 
data from the past. Source: Climate Change and 
Chicago: Projections and Potential Impacts (Chapter 
Two). 

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shorter winter months, promoting wet 
precipitation.5

According to the 1981-2010 normal, Chicago 
counties received about 37 inches of precipitation 
per year.3 The general trend from 1895-2021 
showed a +0.11 inch increase per decade change in 
precipitation (Figure 3).6  

 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change (IPCC) has projected the Chicago 
counties will experience near-term changes (2010-
2039) of annual precipitation on the order of -2% 
to +7%, mid-century changes (2040-2069) on the 
order of -2% to +10% and end of the century 
changes (2070-2099) on the order of -1% to 
+19%.6 These precipitation trends can generate
runoff that can overwhelm flood systems in place
and overtop banks of
river channels.

2. Methodology

These projections primarily rely on two tools
that are freely accessible online: The National 
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 
(NOAA) Climate Explorer app and the Climate 
at a Glance application. The Climate Explorer tool 
reconstructs past climate changes through weather 
information recorded by meteorological 
instruments at weather stations.2 It uses 

computational analysis to determine future climate 
change projections under both high and low 
emissions scenarios. The Climate at a Glance tool 
combines historic statistics and local climate trends 
with global scenarios of climate change.6 The 
oceanic, atmospheric, and geophysical data is 
collected from significant archives on Earth, 
ranging from the depths of the ocean to the surface 
of the sun and ice cores.  

It should be noted that there are critics who 
claim that there is an inherent uncertainty in the 
mathematical representations of Earth’s climate 
system due to the nature of models. One source of 
uncertainty cited is that some of the processes of 
the earth-atmosphere system and their feedbacks 
are not yet fully understood, making it difficult for 
models to accurately resemble these complicated 
climate processes.7   While these uncertainties do 
exist, scientists are confident that climate models 
provide reasonable estimates of future climate 
trends. This confidence in models, such as the ones 
listed above, stems from the ability to reproduce 
past and current trends in climate change with 
these models. Thus, there is a scientific consensus 
that there is enough information about future 
climate patterns to draw projections from.  

3. Human Consequences of Redlining

Increased temperature and precipitation have
culminated in devastating floods in Cook County. 
In January 2020, waves overcame the shoreline and 
barriers–and flowed into city streets of Oak Street 
district.8 During this catastrophe, many private 
properties were damaged due to erosion of housing 
foundations.  

The most concerning outcome of the ongoing 
and projected floods, however, is a 
disproportionate environmental burden borne by 
South Siders, a community of predominantly 
working-class Black and Latinx families. The 
environmental injustices faced by these 
populations is rooted in Cook County’s history of 

Figure 3. Total annual precipitation for Cook County 
from the years of 1895-2021 (green curve). The black 
line is the 20th century average. Source: NOAA Climate 
at a Glance. 

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racist urban policies. America’s first real estate 
lobby, called The National Association of 
Realtors, was created in 1908.9 This organization 
worked against integrated neighborhoods, paving 
the way for the harmful practice of redlining: the 
mapping of neighborhoods with regard to riskiness 
of real estate investments. This allowed for the 
restriction of minority individuals from moving 
away from unsafe areas with high probability of 
floods because redlining provided a vehicle to 
control loans and sales with no accountability for 
racist underpinnings.  Desirable areas were graded 
as an “A” and marked with green shading, while 
“hazardous” areas were graded “D” and shaded 
red.9 

Historically, red (“D”) districts were 
uncoincidentally largely minority neighborhoods 
such as Black and Hispanic communities. These 
individuals in the South Side of Cook County have 
had to endure decades-long battles with climate-
induced lake and sewage water flooding into 
houses bought in the 1980s, and a lackluster 
response from the city.10 Redlining, by preventing 
these individuals from gaining home ownership 
elsewhere, had left no option other than to endure 
the negative repercussions of the climate. 
Consequently, the effects of climate change joined 
with the lingering environmental impacts of the 
Southeast Side’s industrial past–including 
numerous steel mills and a coke plant – have led to 
detrimental consequences for the underserved.  

 Another example of the inequities in who 
bears the burden of climate change can be seen in 
the Cook County confined disposal facility 
(CDF), which has been on the lakefront since 
1984.11 The CDF is a holding facility for material 
dredged from the lake. Undesirable facilities like 
this are located near marginalized populations 
once again due to redlining. Since such 
neighborhoods, including the South Side, have 
decreased land value, city planners can locate new 
industries, highways, warehouses and more 

because the members of these communities have 
no political power or economic status with which 
to resist. Furthermore, Lake Michigan is a major 
water supplier to the South Side of Cook County. 
Community members worry that erosion from 
flooding at the CDF could result in an eventual 
compromise of the facility’s integrity and cause 
toxic waste to leach into the lake, polluting 
drinking water.12  

The deeply segregated neighborhoods of Cook 
County that resulted from redlining also face 
significant temperature and heat vulnerability 
disparities. Increasing heat is detrimental in and of 
itself, being the annual cause of death for 12,000 
individuals. Excess heat is also correlated with 
significant mental health ramifications and 
increased anxiety because without adequate 
shading outside and uncomfortable temperatures, 
people are more likely to stay at home and be 
isolated indoors.13 Thus, these problems surfaced 
often in red zones of Cook County’s redlining 
practices. Furthermore, added heat is more 
dangerous for those who have heart disease. The 
African American community of Cook County is 
the population most afflicted with heart disease. 
The year of 1995 highlights this disparity in heat 
impact on different racial and ethnic groups. 
During this year, Chicago experienced one of its 
worst heat waves.14 However, communities 
experienced varying damage; the normalized 
temperature anomaly for “A” areas was -4.6 °F,
while for “D” areas it was +1.3 °F. 9 Temperatures
of these areas were compared relatively to the 
entire set of places in the Chicago area. Policy 
makers were aware of how the climate raised 
temperatures. They decided to have minority 
individuals live in areas prone to rising 
temperatures and subsequent detrimental effects, 
while keeping white, affluent individuals in places 
less impacted. This has caused a financial hardship 
for the underserved. Many of the residents in the 
“D” areas don’t have air conditioning in their 

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Georgetown	Scientific	Research	Journal	

homes and don’t have easily accessible public 
institutions in which to escape the heat. Those 
who do have air conditioning face inflated energy 
bills. 

4. Conclusion

The projected climatic changes to Cook
County are disconcerting, especially given their 
disproportionate impact on minority communities. 
Redlining instilled practices that dictated the 
residency of disadvantaged communities It placed 
minority populations in areas that were largely 
afflicted with climate-induced issues such as excess 
heat and flooding — heightening the cost of 
climate change.  New challenges presented in 2022 
have only exacerbated the environmental injustices 
of Cook County, and the future does not look to 
be any better if no change is enacted.  

References 

1. Bodansky, D. (1993). The United Nations 
framework convention on climate change: a 
commentary. Yale J. Int’l I., 18, 451.

2. NOAA. (n.d.). Location data for Buncombe County, 
NC. Climate Explorer. Retrieved from https://crt-
climateexplorer.nemac.org/local-climate-
charts/?county=Cook+County&amp;city=Chicago%
2C
+IL&amp;fips=17031&amp;lat=41.88&amp;lo 
n=-87.63&amp;id=pcpn&amp;zoom=9&amp;thresh
ol d 
=100&amp;window=1&amp;thresholdVariable=t 
max&amp;station=USC00111497&amp;station-
name=CHICAGO+BOTANIC
+GARDEN&amp;nav=lo cal-climate-chart

3. Hellmann, J., Lesht, B., Nadelhoffer, K. (2007). 
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f64890adc5a7

4. Mapped: How every part of the world has warmed
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continue-to-warm.   

5. Blumler, M. A. (2018). The West Without Water: 
What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic 
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6. NCEI.Monitoring.info@noaa.gov. (n.d.). Climate 
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7. Heavens, N. G., Ward, D. S., & Natalie, M. M.
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8. Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning.
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f64890adc5a7.  

9. Numbers, B. (2020). Environmental Injustice in 
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4b2babcabe33fee01f72.

10. Cusick, D. (2020). Past Racist “Redlining” 
Practices Increased Climate Burden on Minority 
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minority-neighborhoods/.

11. Coursey, D., Geer, A.,Hagerbaumer, C., 
Hammond, D., & Mendelsohn, B. (1994). 
Environmental Racism in the City of Chicago: The 
History of EPA Hazardous Waste Sites in African-
American Neighborhoods. Federal Reserve Bank of 
St. Louis. Retrieved from WorldCat.org.

12. Pyzyk, K. (2020). How Chicago is coping with the 
effects of climate change. MPR News. Retrieved 
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the-flood-how-chicago-is-coping-with-the-effects-
of-climate-change.

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13. Cianconi, P., Betró, S., & Janiri, L. (2020). The 
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https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00074.

14. Uchoa, K. (2020). The Deadly Chicago Heat 
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	Table of Contents
	Letter From the Editors
	Increasing COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake in the United States: Addressing Reasons for Vaccine Hesitancy th
	An Analysis of the Effects of Frequency and Type of Physical Activity on Self-Esteem in Adolescent M
	Addressing American Obesity: A Policy Proposal
	The Select Agent Regulations: Structure and Stricture
	An Evaluation of the Human Impact of Climatic Factors in Cook County, Illinois
	An Evaluation of Food Insecurity in the D.C. Community
	About the Authors
	Meet the Staff
	Acknowledgements




