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Impact Analysis of Glacial Lakes on Land Use Land Cover 

Dynamics of Karakoram Using Satellite Imagery from 1998-2018 

Anila Alam, Aliya Fazal1 

Fatima Jinnah Women University Rawalpindi Pakistan 

Karamat Ali 

Karakorum International University Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan 

 

Abstract 

Land use land cover change (LULCC) detection is vital for managing natural resources 

and monitoring environmental changes. Ishkoman valley being a part of glaciated 

region is facing the problem of altered land features. Natural disasters triggered by 

human activities are altering the land cover of the basin. The valley is facing the floods, 

GLOF and landslides almost every year from glacier melt due to temperature 

fluctuation.  

Present exploration is to identify LULC dynamics in context of the creation of an 

artificial lake in Ishkoman basin which had blocked the flow of Immit River. GIS and 

RS techniques were applied for geographic and temporal evaluation of land use 

modifications in the Ishkoman basin from the year 1998 to 2018. It is identified that 

barren land and vegetation cover of region declined significantly in twenty years while 

snow and glacier cover was increased. 

1. Introduction 

Land is one of the dynamic natural resources hosting all natural and anthropogenic 

activities. Although Land use and land cover (LULC) are separate features of the earth 

surface but they are very interrelated. Each parcel of land is distinctive in the cover it 

possesses (Meyer, 1995). LULC of a region is controlled by natural and socio-

economic factors. Natural disasters like drought, rainfall, forest fires, and fluctuations 

in climate can cause alterations in land cover. The continuous pressure on land to 

meet the needs of a growing population and several demands driven developmental 

activities have imposed stress on the earth’s land (Foley et al., 2011; Weinzettel et al., 

2013). The changes in the traditional land use pattern caused by growing human 

population are higher than ever (Hansen et al., 2010). Lack of scientific analysis and 

evaluation of resources resulted in unsustainable use of land resources. Therefore 

information on the geographic and temporal allocation of LULC is an important 

                                                           
1 Corresponding author, email: aliyafazal38@yahoo.com. 

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prerequisite for management and monitoring programs at the local and regional 

level (Fan et al., 2007). 

The LULC information acquired by GIS and RS for identification of hazard and risk 

from glacier lakes in the Karakoram must be explored. The purpose of the study is to 

create LULC classification maps for Ishkoman valley of Gilgit - Baltistan, Pakistan from 

1998 to 2018, and to analyze the impacts of glacial lake on LULC dynamics of 

Ishkoman. Generated data will assist policy makers in updating their planning for 

Ishkoman Basin. 

2.  Materials and Methods  

2.1 Study Area 

Ishkoman is a splendid valley situated at 36.5677° North and 73.7426° East, in north 

of Ghizer district of Gilgit-Baltistan (Fig. 1). In the Hindu Kush and Karakoram hills, 

Ishkoman is one of the high mountain valleys, located at an altitude of 7,000 and 

12,000 feet. 

 

Figure 1:  Map Showing Geographical Location of Ishkoman 

At a distance of 140 kilometers from Gilgit, valley is known for beautiful natural lakes, 

alpine pastures, huge glaciers, and blue ice-cold water. It is a host to several mountain 

paths and treks from glaciers that makes it a popular tourist destination. The valley 

includes approximately 25 villages with a population of 30,000 inhabitants. It has a 

desert climate because it gets little monsoonal rain from June to September. 

Temperature variation throughout the year is about 26.9 °C. During summer season, 

many streams increase dramatically, transporting 20 % more water than in winter 

because of the melting of glaciers and snow. 

 

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2.2 Glacial Lake of a Valley  

In Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa, more than 3,044 glacial lakes have 

already been formed of which 33 are considered hazardous (UNDP estimate). A 

glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event occurred on 17 July 2018, struck Immit, 

Bilhnaz and Badswat villages of Ishkoman basin (Fig. 2).  

 

Figure 2: The glacial lake image of 26th July 2018 (Source: AKDN). 

A lake was formed in Badsawat village and resulted in the destruction of many houses 

and blocked 10 villages. Two people were killed during the initial rush of floodwaters 

and more than 1,000 people were evacuated to safer locations before this catastrophic 

event (Dawn news 20th July 2018). Flooding is one of the severe problems in and 

around the Ishkoman valley. These particular natural hazards have made Ishkoman 

subject to flooding. 

 

2.3 Study Method 

This research is focused on analyzing the satellite imagery of the Ishkoman 

watershed. Since the study aims to detect the LULC changes in Ishkoman Basin from 

year 1998 to 2018, so the Landsat was the best available option. 

 

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Figure 3: The glacial debris image of 26th July 2018 (Source: Pamir Times/Twitter).

Landsat multispectral imageries of valley for said years with a spectral resolution of 30 

m were acquired from the earth explorer of United States Geological Survey (2014). 

Real time data is very important while analyzing remotely sensed data. Therefore field 

observation was carried out despite of the rough terrain, unusual weather, very cold 

temperature, and remoteness. In addition, acquiring satellite images for the expected 

interval of time was a difficult task because of cloud cover. Landsat images of 

Ishkoman Basin were acquired for September 1998. Selection of this month for 

acquisition of Landsat images is made due to melting of heavy snow. Snow melting 

starts from June and continues till August. All the images downloaded were either from 

the July or early August to keep the analysis free from the impact of seasonal 

variability. 

Two separate images for each year were downloaded to cover the whole basin. 

Acquired input data was imported to Earth Resources Data Analysis System (ERDAS 

Imagine 13 software). The different bands were stacked using layer stack in order to 

generate a false color composite (FCC) image of the acquired tiles of the image. 

Landsat Satellite images were selected on the basis of the quality of images with low 

cloud cover (Fig. 4). For georeferencing, World Geodetic System (WGS 84) and the 

North Coordinate System of the Transverse Mercator Zone 35 were used. Suitable 

band combinations of Landsat 4-5 and 7-8 were selected. For the Landsat 4 - 5 bands 

of image display on the channel of red, green, blue and near infrared were used while 

for Landsat 7-8 band 1,2,3,4,5 were selected. ARCMAP software was used to clip the 

study area and Histogram equalization has been used as the primary technique in the 

current research to enhance image contrast. 

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Figure 4: Flow Chart showing the method used in the study 

In order to determine the LULC changes supervised classification following the 

maximum likelihood algorithm was used in ARCMAP software to classify the images 

of three different time periods. On the basis of the major types of LULC of an area, a 

classification scheme was thought-out (Table 1). Based on the information from local 

inhabitants in a field study LULC classes considered are barren land, snow and 

glacier, vegetation, water bodies, and settlements. Based on the pixel number and 

total area the area of each LULC class was calculated. 

 

Table 1: Classification Theme for LULC Classes 

Elements Description 

Barren land It comprises bare soil, sand, rocks, strip mines and quarries  

Snow 

&Glacier 
It  includes glacial lakes, ice and snow 

LULC maps for each year

Area estimation Change detection

Preprocessing of images

Layer stacking
Band and color 

combination
Supervised 

classification

Actual field 

data 

Satellite images 

Landsat 1998 Landsat 2008 Landsat 2018

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Vegetation It covers land under crop fields, fallow, plantation, rangelands, 

scattered plants, forests, meadows on the mountains 
Water bodies It includes surface water e.g. lakes, canals, ponds, streams, rivers 

and reservoirs 

Settlements It includes residential area and cattle homes 
 

3. Results and Discussion 

3.1 LULC Maps of Ishkoman Valley  

Anthropogenic activities and its consequent LULC change have become an important 

issue for the present time that risks the environmental degradation (Gamble et al., 

2003). Ishkoman basin's LULC analysis for past twenty years revealed some important 

transformations (see Fig. 5). 

3.1.1 For the Year 1998 

The analysis of 1998 image showed that barren land covered the largest proportion of 

land in Ishkoman basin covering 68% of the total land, followed by the snow and 

glacier (18%). The vegetation and settlement constituted 10% and 3% respectively 

while the water bodies showed coverage of 0.7 %. 

3.1.2 For the Year 2008 

The assessment of 2008 image revealed the same trend as noted for 1998, that barren 

land covered about 64% followed by the snow and glacier which accounts for 19% of 

the whole basin. The vegetation constitutes 14%, while computed values for 

settlements and water bodies are 3% and 0. 7% respectively. 

 

 

 

 

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Figure 5: LULCMaps of Ishkoman valley for the Year 1998, 2008, and 2018 

3.1.3 For the Year 2018 

The scrutiny of 2018 image showed that Barren land accounted for the 40% while 

snow and glacier covered about 38% of the whole basin. The vegetation constitutes 

16%, while settlement and water bodies showed coverage value of 4% and 0.8% 

respectively. 

Table 2: Area Transition for LULC Classes for Years 1998, 2008, and 2018 

LULC type                     1998                   2008                  2018 

Area in 

Hectares 

 

percentage 

Area in 

Hectares 

 

percentage 

Area in 

Hectares 

 

percentage 

Barren 

land 

195383.4 68.15% 182217.1 63.78% 108660.54 40.31% 

Snow 

&Glacier 

51436.58 17.94% 53213.33 18.63% 102772.67 38.12% 

Vegetation 28200.7 9.84% 39714.78 13.9% 44128.02 16.37% 

Water 

bodies 

1909.54 0.67% 1934.39 0.68% 2259.99 0.84% 

Settlements 7787.47 2.72% 8625.47 3.02% 9748.80 3.62% 

 

3.2 Dynamics of LULC of Ishkoman Basin 

Each class computed from LULC maps is presented in the Table 2. 

3.2.1 Barren Land 

As the land belongs to the individuals of a specific village in Gilgit-Baltistan, so the 

people of the village have the privilege of individual ownership and have the rights in 

areas contiguous to a specific village. In 1978 ownership rights were introduced on 

barren lands under cultivation. Still districts of Hunza, Ghizer and Diamer are unsettled 

in comparison to the districts of Gilgit, Astore, Skardu and Khaplu (Bhatti & Ali, 2016). 

This might be a reason for a larger share of barren land for the basin under analysis. 

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Figure 6: Barren Land Area Distribution of Ishkoman Basin 

Continuous decrease in area is figured out for Barren land which was identified as 

largest in share. The decline is 4% from 1998 to 2008 while 25% from 2008 to 2018. 

Figure (6) reveals decreasing trend, probably caused by encroachment and 

conversion into other land use and land cover. The current study suggests shift of 

barren land area with snow and glaciers. 

3.2.2 Snow and Glaciers 

About 23% of the Karakoram Range possesses ice reserves of about 2,387 km. Some 

2,398 glaciers, including Siachen, Hispar, Biafo, Baltoro and Batura, are among the 

largest glaciers other than Polar glaciers (Ashraf et al., 2010). In the Karakoram 

Range, glaciers are stable/stagnant or even growing (Hewitt, 2005).This study also 

supports the same finding, from the year 1998 to 2018 snow and glacier cover was 

recognized enhancing from 51437 hectares to 102773 hectares in Ishkoman Basin. 

The area computed from 2018 map is simply double to the 1998 map. A significant 

increase of 51336 hectares was estimated for the 2 decades under comparison (Fig. 

7). 

195383.4
182217.1

108660.54

1998 2008 2018

Area in hectares

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Figure 7: Snow and Glacier Area Distribution of Ishkoman Basin 

3.2.3 Vegetation 

In Gilgit-Baltistan the vegetation and interface areas constitute the third highest land 

cover after barren land and snowcapped mountains. It covers 2.34 million hectares of 

the land (Khan et al., 2013). Vegetation and pasture land of an ecosystem are not only 

essential for air and water regulation but also a great asset for continuous economic 

growth. The increase in area under vegetation for the 1st decade was more (11514 

hectares) than the 2nd decade (4413 hectares). Increasing human population 

suggests growing need for livelihoods, which put stress on agricultural land and 

vegetation in terms of production and consumption. The improvement in vegetation 

cover is probably due to better practice of land ownership which restricts grazing in 

someone else land. Vegetation expansion was 4 % from 1998 to 2008 while 2 % from 

2008 to 2018 (Fig. 8). GLOF disaster can change the land cover so that hectares of 

the agricultural land have been destroyed by GLOF under study. Seasonal crops like 

wheat, potatoes, and cereals were submerged creating a food shortage. The native 

people already suffered and this disaster had severely impacted their socioeconomic 

condition. 

1998
24%

2008
25%

2018
51%

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Figure 8: Vegetation Area Distribution of Ishkoman Basin 

3.2.4 Settlements 

Residential area covered about 7787 hectares in 1998, increased to 8625.47 hectares 

in 2008 that further increased to 9749 hectares in 2018 of the whole area. The LULC 

maps generated for settlements have shown an increase from 2.72% to 3.62% from 

1998 to 2018 respectively. Due to the geographical location a slight increase of 1% in 

residence for 2 decades was noted. The rangelands provide an extensive amount of 

fuel wood to meet domestic energy needs, fodder for livestock, and medicinal plants 

for traditional uses and sale purpose. 1n 1998, residential area was identified in the 

lower areas of the basin, but in the other two periods, it has shifted to the upper areas 

of the basin i-e towards the rangeland area. Field visits and responses from local 

inhabitants helped to reason out this shifting. Wood from the rangeland is the only 

source of fuel for them so shift to upper areas make collection of wood easier for them. 

Primarily this relocation of resident to safer places is a potential risk of more damage 

to downstream population due to GLOF events. 

3.2.5 Water Bodies 

Ishkoman River is the source of irrigation for the various villages in Ishkoman and 

Puniyal that drains into the Gilgit River. Water bodies increased from the initial 1910 

hectares (1998) to around 1934 hectares (2008) leading in a total rise of 2260 hectares 

(2018). 

 

1998

2008

2018

9.84

13.9

16.37

% Area

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Figure 9: Water Bodies Area Distribution of Ishkoman Basin 

3.3    Land Use Land Cover Changes and GLOF 

Impact of climate change have been well observed in HKH region, in particular, with 

respect to the increase of the snowline, formation of glacier lakes and change in 

biodiversity in the ecosystem (Rasul et al., 2003; Dwarakish & Ganasri, 2015). Global 

circulation patterns and local topography influences greatly the occurrence of GLOF 

events. The topography of the Ishkoman river basin experiences various types of 

meteorological conditions according to elevation, aspect, slope and landforms (Khan 

et al., 2013). The mechanism for flood generation in the Northern Pakistan depends 

on extremely different variables. The contributing factors of LULCC for the area under 

study are natural disasters such as GLOF, rock sliding, avalanches, land slips, 

earthquakes, climate change, and trampling effects. Potential risk of outburst floods 

from 8 glacial lakes of hanging nature from Gilgit river basin has been reported by 

Ashraf et al. (2010). Several GLOF occurrences can be connected with more rainfall 

leading to rise in river level over the previous few years. In past years temperature and 

precipitation patterns has changed and directly affected the overall land cover. In the 

month of April and May, rainfall had occurred in Badsawat, Bilhanz and the other 

villages of Ishkoman. Due to heavy snowfall in last year’s, the percentage of snow and 

glacier has somehow increased in 2018. The occurrence of any extreme GLOF 

incidence in the future is very difficult to predict due to rapid dynamics of glacial 

system. But effective monitoring and planning can reduce impact of natural disasters 

like GLOF. 

 

 

 

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

A
re

a 
(h

e
ct

ar
)

Years

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4. Conclusions 

The mountainous areas of northern Pakistan are rich in biodiversity, glaciers and key 

watershed of Indus River system. Effective assessment and monitoring is 

indispensable to capture land use land cover changes of the region. Present 

exploration is to identify the reason of land cover dynamics in the Ishkoman basin in 

context of creation of an artificial lake which had blocked the flow of Immit River. From 

the overall characteristics of land cover a significant change is measured for Snow 

and glaciers, vegetation and barren land while settlement and water bodies did not 

show any major transformation.  Snow and glaciers cover were found accelerated 

along proportionate decrease to barren land and vegetation. 

 

5.  Recommendations 

In the framework of adjustment to climate change, following are the suggestions to 

maintain the region's mountain ecosystem and manage   land cover: 

 As Ishkoman is disaster prone area, there is need to inform people about 

anticipated disaster hazards and set up an early warning system in Ishkoman 

 Special measures are needed first and foremost to secure the built 

infrastructure of the basin from the impact of climate change, 

 Climate resilient building methods must be drawn into account and promoted, 

 Maintain an inventory of all significant climate-prone hydrometerological events 

of region for tracking and formulation of risk assessments, 

 Another step forward in protecting and restoring the vegetation would be 

providing incentives to the local people for guarding the new plantations, and  

 A comprehensive watershed resource management is essential for the 

socioeconomic development of inhabitant in future. 

 

Acknowledgement 

The author wishes to thank Dr. Aftab Ahmed from Department of Computer Sciences, 

Karakoram International University, Gilgit, Pakistan for providing technical support. 

 

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Author Notes 

Ms. Anila Alam has completed her BS in Environmental Sciences from Fatima Jinnah 

Women University, Rawalpindi in 2019. Her BS research work was “Identification of 

hazard and risk from glacier lakes in the Karakoram using satellite imagery from 2000-

2018”. Right after graduation, she got involved in a base line survey conducted by 

ICIMOD in different regions of Gilgit-Baltistan. She has a keen interest to work as a 

meteorologist and wishes to pursue MPhil in the field of GIS and RS. 

 

Dr. Aliya Fazal is currently working as Assistant Professor in the department of 

Chemistry, of Fatima Jinnah Women University Rawalpindi, Pakistan. She obtained 

her PhD degree in the field of Environmental Sciences from the same university in 

year 2012. Her PhD study was “Chemistry, kinetics and activation of biomaterials for 

waste water treatment”. Dr. Aliya has presented her research work in many 

international conferences and published research articles in diverse fields. Her 

research interests are metal nanoparticles synthesis & applications, biofuel production 

& desulfurization of fossil fuel, GLOF risk mapping, drinking water quality assessment, 

and pollutants remediation. She has supervised 17 BS students and 5 MPhil scholars 

in their research pursuit. 

 

Dr. Karamat Ali is a lecturer in the department of Environmental Sciences, Karakoram 

International University (KIU) Gilgit, Pakistan. He has completed his MSc in 

Geography from Karachi University, MPhil from KIU and PhD in Environmental 

Sciences from Kathmandu University. His PhD study was “Flash flood hazard and 

vulnerability assessment in the Gilgit River Basin, Norther areas of Pakistan”. Dr. 

Karamat joined KIU as a contractual faculty in 2006 and become permanent in 2012. 

His research interest includes disaster risk assessment & reduction, GIS and RS 

based GLOFs risk assessment, Land use Land cover change & Climate change 

impact assessment. He has published a few papers on various topics and supervised 

more than 30 BS students and currently supervising 5 MPhil scholars. He completed 

three research projects as PI and Co-PI and is currently involved in the project titled 

“Scaling up and transferring community-managed rural water systems to urban” 

funded by British Academy Infrastructure Well-Being Project. 

 

 

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