


































Global Research in Higher Education 
ISSN 2576-196X (Print) ISSN 2576-1951 (Online) 

Vol. 6, No. 1, 2023 

www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/grhe 

46 

 

Original Paper 

Philippine Mutual Funds Performance 2008-2019 

Revelino D. Garcia
1
 

1
 Director, PhD Programs, Philippine Christian University, Manila Philippines 

 

Received: February 7, 2023     Accepted: February 15, 2023     Online Published: March 3, 2023 

doi:10.22158/grhe.v6n1p46                URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/grhe.v6n1p46 

 

Abstract 

This paper examined the effects of macroeconomic variables as interest rate, inflation rate, and 

exchange rate on the performance of mutual funds in the Philippines from 2008 to 2019.  

OLS and polynomial regression were initially tested for goodness of fit. The result showed that OLS 

regression was better suited for the analysis as it has a lower standard deviation.  

Macroeconomic variables. The Philippines economic forecasts 2008-2019 outlook provided a 

declining trend from 5.20% 2008 to 4.3% in 2019. The downtrend in inflation provided an upturn of 

the mutual funds as seen in the inverse relation of the mutual funds (-coefficients), that is, an upturn of 

inflation rate reflects a corresponding downturn in mutual fund values.  

Likewise, interest rates are expected to rise from 3.5% in 2008 to 4.0% in 2020. The results showed 

that an increase in interest rate will cause to increase the return of investors. 

The dollar denominated funds as expected were vulnerable to inflation rate.  

For the period 2008-2019, the Philippine mutual funds remained resilient and yielded expected results. 

The effects of macroeconomic variables as interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rates were not 

significant. 

Keywords 

Interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, mutual funds 

 

1. Introduction 

This paper examined the effects of macroeconomic variables as interest rate, inflation rate, and 

exchange rate on the performance of mutual funds in the Philippines from 2008 to 2019 (data for 

2020-2021 were not included due to their extreme volatility, for a future study focused on disruptive 

times). The basic investment tenet “historical returns are not a guarantee of future performance” 

remains true to form. One cannot predict the future performance of a fund just by looking at its past 

performance due to the difficulty of ignoring uncertainty. “Exposure to risk”, meanwhile, refers to 

volatility in the returns achieved by the fund and deviations from expected returns; these are calculated 



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as financial indicators such as the Sharpe ratio, r-squared, beta, or standard deviation. These provide the 

figures to determine the risk exposure of the investment fund. The Augmented Dickey Fuller was used 

to test whether the mutual funds had unit roots, that is, they were not changing significantly over time. 

Regression equations were derived to determine to what extent the macroeconomic variables affected 

the returns of the mutual funds. 

Interest rate. The impact of changing interest rates is clear when it comes to the profitability of 

debt-oriented mutual funds. Nonetheless, rising interest rates may make mutual funds, and other 

investments, less attractive in general since the cost of borrowing increases as interest rates rise, 

individuals and businesses have less money to put into their portfolios. This means mutual funds have 

less capital to work with, making it harder to generate healthy returns. However, the stability of 

short-term debt, money market funds or other mutual funds that invest primarily in secure, short-term 

assets issued by highly rated governments or corporations are less vulnerable to the ravages of interest 

rate volatility (Boyte-White, 2018). Rising rates is bad news for debt fund investors. When the interest 

rate starts to move up, the price of existing bonds falls which in turn pushes down the Net Asset Value 

(NAV) of debt funds, translating into lower returns for the investor (Dhawan, 2018). But rising rates 

affect both the equity and fixed-income markets, albeit in different ways. Interest-rate movements are 

essentially the bond market’s way of signaling how investors feel about future their future returns. 

Despite all the seemingly complex machinations behind rate fluctuations, it can boil down to a simple 

supply-and-demand equation. 

Inflation rate. Inflation is one that consumers and investors want to be as low as possible. For the 

simple reason that it erodes both purchasing power and the returns on investments as the prices of 

goods and services rise. Since this factor is inevitable knowing how to protect investment value from 

shrinking considerably, several types of mutual funds can protect investment value in different ways. 

One way of fighting inflation’s effect on the investment is to buy mutual funds that invest in 

commodities, real property or in real estate investment trusts or invest in Treasury inflation-protected 

securities. 

Mutual Funds do not have inflation rate. One talks about inflation when he considers the purchasing 

power of money (Anindya Dhar, BDE, 2017). Inflation rate is the rate at which the price of general 

goods and services increase with time. This is a result of increase in money supply and the subsequent 

reduction in the purchasing power of money. The only consideration to make while investing in mutual 

funds about inflation rate is whether the returns offered by one’s investment are greater than inflation 

rate.  

Gusni, Silviana, Faisal Hamdani (2018) investigated the performance of equity mutual fund using 

risk-adjusted performance proposed by Treynor (1965) and examined factors affecting mutual fund 

performance by using the ability of investment manager (market timing and stock selection skill), fund 

size, and inflation. The result showed that equity mutual fund performance tends to fluctuate in 



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Indonesia. Equity mutual fund performance was influence by stock selection skill and inflation, 

meanwhile, market timing skill and fund size had no significant effect on the equity mutual fund 

performance. 

Exchange rate. In overseas investing, currency movements play a major role in a fund’s total returns 

(Dierking, 2017). Understanding how foreign currencies behave against the U.S. dollar can help 

investors manage foreign exchange risk in their portfolios. Exchange rate movements could either 

enhance or diminish the return of that security. Currency risk, or exchange rate risk, comes from the 

chance that exchange rate movements could negatively impact an investment’s total return. It is 

important to note that currency risk can affect both the price appreciation of a security and the dividend 

and interest payments it makes. Exchange rate movements reflect short-term economic conditions and 

can occur because of a number of different factors: 

Interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to higher rates of return for investors. 

Trade balance. The balance of trade between imports and exports can impact the supply and demand for 

currencies. 

Public debt. High levels of government debt can have a negative impact on a country’s exchange rate.  

Political environment. A country experiencing political unrest or governmental instability likely makes 

for a less attractive investment opportunity.  

Both domestic mutual funds and international funds expose investors to currency risk (Zacks, 2018). In 

contrast, a global fund can protect the investor from fluctuations involving the dollar. When the dollar 

rises, the foreign securities in the fund lose value but the market value of the U.S. securities rises. 

Depending on the exact makeup of the fund, rising U.S. asset prices may more than offset losses tied to 

foreign holdings. The investment risks posed by changing exchange rates emphasizes the importance of 

investing in companies, not in currencies. The shifts and turns of currencies are largely unpredictable 

and can be volatile, even dramatic, in the short term. However, over the long term, research studies 

have found that the effect of currency volatility tends to balance out (Mackenzie Investments, 2017). 

This is why one should consider focusing on funds that buy the stocks of competitive companies at 

attractive prices. These are businesses that have long-term advantages in their industries and offer 

products and services that customers want. 

The variability in short-term exchange rate movements and the impact this can have on investment 

returns shows that currency movements tend to have minimal impact over the long term. Over periods 

of 15 years or longer, the impact of exchanges between the Canadian dollar and the U.S. dollar on 

investment returns gets closer and closer to zero—an important point for long-term investors (Global 

Asset Management, 2018). 

Mutual Funds in the Philippines. The year 2008 was not a good year for most mutual funds that declined 

severely in values thus wiping out the gains earned in 2007. Likewise, bonds and money markets suffered 

from the economic crunch that hit the global markets.  



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The 1st quarter of 2009 showed positive returns of Philippine mutual funds showing recovery. The 2nd 

quarter showed a continuing improvement in the funds. Most of the equity funds tracked the 

performance of the PSE index, which grew up 30% year to date. Some balanced funds, which invest in 

both stocks and bonds, were even comparable with other equity funds in terms of returns. 

In 2010, just 1 out of 8 equity funds underperformed compared to the PSE index while of the Peso 

balanced funds, 5 out of 8 funds were above par index performance. It should be noted that the 

benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) increased 63% in 2009 but grew by only 37.6% in 

2010. 

In 2011, the Philippine equity market got a net gain of 4.07% considered as the best performance of a 

stock market in Southeast Asia. Also, investment funds followed while most mutual funds ended 

positive. 

The Philippines survived 2011 and managed to end the year with above-average performance even with 

the continuing economic crunch in the global markets due to the European debt crisis and the United 

States troubled finances. Despite the continuing economic crunch in the global markets, fueled by the 

European debt crisis and the United States’ troubled finances, the Philippines survived 2011 and 

managed to end the year with above-average performance. Bond funds registered an average return of 

7.43% last year—better than the average return of 3.12% booked by equity funds brought about by the 

improving credit rating of the Philippines and investors’ risk made bonds more attractive in 2011. 

The year 2012 was a good year for mutual funds with positive growths. Nonetheless, only a few 

managed to outperform the benchmark index. All stock mutual funds grew by two-digits, but they 

paled in comparison to the 32.95% return of the PSEi. Balanced funds had returns that matched the 

performance of equity funds. Even with the presence of external threats such as credit rating 

downgrades, loan defaults and recession in the European region, and the debt ceiling and fiscal cliff 

problem of the United States, the market rallied. Yields of Philippine bond funds and money market 

funds were relatively higher compared to the previous year. Their returns were a lot higher than the 

interest rates offered by bank’s savings and time deposit accounts. In 2013, bond funds outperformed 

equity funds. Equity mutual funds actually underperformed in 2012 with barely half of Philippine 

equity mutual funds managing to beat the 1.33% growth of the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange 

index (PSEi) in 2013. Peso-denominated bond mutual funds also easily outperformed the PSEi’s 

growth in 2013 and also that of the equity funds. 

The year 2014 was also a good year for the mutual funds each of which posted two-digit returns, better 

off than their performance in 2013. The year 2015 was not a good year for the funds each of which 

posted negative returns although with a minimal positive net gain against the returns in 2014. 

Of the 40 peso-denominated mutual funds, just 9 posted positive returns. The rest suffered a loss, below 

par the PSEi with a -3.81% as of January 2016. In the year 2016, investments reached new highs and 

peak returns, both in the performance of the Philippine stock market and in mutual funds. 



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The mutual funds also ended up with positive returns in 2017 most of them outperforming the PSEi. 

The mutual funds ended the year 2018 and 2019 with positive returns. Overall, the mutual funds posted 

positive returns. On year to date, the Philippine mutual funds have positive returns above PSEi. 

 

2. Method 

David Diltz and David Rakowski (2018) in his study, “Mutual fund research: a perspective on how we 

have arrived at the current state of academic research on mutual funds” presented studies done by 

various authors on various factors affecting mutual funds’ performance. The mutual funds included in 

this study were classified into the following: Peso Stock Funds (PSF), Peso Balanced Funds (PBF), 

Dollar Balanced Funds (DBF), Peso Bond Funds (PBF), Foreign Currency Bond Funds (FCB) and 

Peso Money Market Funds (PMMF). This paper attempted to study the top mutual funds’ performance 

from 2008 to 2019 focusing on three macroeconomic variables: interest rate, inflation rate and 

exchange rate. OLS and polynomial regression were initially tested for goodness of fit. The result 

showed that OLS regression was better suited for the analysis as it has a lower standard deviation. The 

r-squared, beta and standard deviation were used to test the risk exposure of the funds. Likewise, the 

Augmented Dickey Fuller test statistic (ADF) was used to test the presence of a unit root. The 

performance data were taken from Investment Company Association of the Philippines published 

online by Pinoy MoneyTalk.  

 

3. Results 

Ljung-Box test. Many statistical tests are used to try to reject some null hypotheses. In this particular 

case, the Ljung-Box test tries to reject the independence of some values: 

*If p-value < .05: Reject the null hypothesis assuring a 5% chance of making a mistake. One can 

assume that the values are showing dependence on each other. 

*If p-value > .05: One does not have enough statistical evidence that the values are dependent. This 

could mean that the values are dependent anyway or it can mean that they are independent. But one is 

not proving any specific possibility, what the test actually said is that one cannot assert the dependence 

of the values, neither one can assert the independence of the values. In general, what is important is to 

keep in mind that p-value < .05 lets one rejects the null hypothesis, but a p-value > .05 does not let one 

confirm the null hypothesis. The Ljung-Box test statistic results showed that the mutual funds under 

study had all p-values > .05, that is, the mutual funds were independent from the changes in interest 

rates, inflation rate, and exchange rate. 

Durbin-Watson statistic. It is a test statistic to detect the presence of autocorrelation at lag1 in the 

residuals from a regression analysis. Later, John Denis Sargan and Alok Bhargava developed several 

von Neumann-Durbin-Watson type of test statistics for the null hypothesis that the errors on a 

regression model follow a process with a unit root against the alternative hypothesis that the errors 



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follow a stationary first order. DW = 2.0 indicates no autocorrelation. A DW which is substantially less 

than 2.0 indicates presence of positive serial correlation while a DW which is substantially greater than 

2.0 reflects successive error terms negative correlation that are negatively correlated which implies an 

underestimation of the level of statistical significance.  

The computed DWs ranged from 1.898 to 2.209 which can be considered relatively close to 2.0. 

 

Table 1. F-Test Performance of Mutual Funds in the Philippines—Inflation Rates 2008-2019 

 

Statistics 

MUTUAL FUNDS 

DBF FCB PBF PB0 PMM PSF 

Coefficients -10.7 -1.71 -.535 -13.28 .140 10.65 

Durbin-Watson 1.91 2.97 1.91 1.10 2.016 2.010 

Std. Dev. (Res.) .775 .775 .775 775 .775 .775 

t-value -1.44 -.643 -.402 -1.465 -.434 -1.22 

Mean (Residuals) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

p-value .199 .544 .702 .193 .679 .268 

F-Value 1.11 .686 1.19 2.271 .726 .773 

p-value .42 .627 .403 .177 .605 .581 

r-square .42 .314 .442 .602 .326 .340 

 

Table 1 provides the F-test performance of mutual funds in the in the Philippines for 2008-2019 to 

show the effects of inflation rate. 

Coefficients. The effects of inflation rate to the mutual funds were negative. The t-values were 

significantly small and correspondingly the p-values were greater than .05. Also, except for PMM, the 

rest of the mutual funds had year beginning of negative rates caused by inflation rate. 

Durbin Watson test. The Durbin-Watson test for test of stationarity shows that mutual funds understudy 

was within the range of normality (DW = 1.898-2.209). An exception is the foreign currency mutual 

funds (FCB) which was beyond the normal range (DW = 2.97). In general, the mutual funds tended to 

changing negatively, though rather not significant. 

 

 



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Standard deviation of residuals and mean of residuals. The standard deviation of residuals is a test of 

volatility of the fund. When the mean of the residuals is zero, the volatility is considered to be not 

significant. The standard deviations were less than 1.0, which implied that the mutual funds yields were 

close to the mean or expected results. The mutual fund rate of returns was not volatile; hence, their 

expected returns were attained. Also, the computed values of the residuals were .775 which were 

significantly low with the mean residuals equal to 0.0. In such case, it can be noted that the mutual 

funds volatility was not significant, that is, the mutual funds yielded expected returns. 

F-test of significance of performance. The F-test is a test of significance of the whole regression 

equation. A p-value that is less than .05 indicates that the whole regression is significant and can be 

valid as a tool to predict the value of the dependent variable for the next period. The computed F-values 

were significantly low with a corresponding p-value greater than .05, thus, the derived regression 

equation was not valid to predict next period rate of return of the mutual funds. Nonetheless, the mutual 

fund performance next period were attained as expected. 

r-squared. The r-squared test statistic indicates the extent to which the identified explanatory variables 

affected the results of the regression equation, i.e., the rest of relevant variables were not part of the 

study. The r-squared values are very low (0.314-0.602). 

Conclusions. Inflation rates over the period from 2008-2019 did not significantly affect the 

performance of the mutual funds. The mutual funds though changing negatively, the changes that 

occurred were not significant. Likewise, the rate of returns was not volatile yielding expected returns as 

a result. Overall, the mutual funds’ performance remained resilient and yielded expected results. 

 

Table 2. F-Test Performance of Mutual Funds in the Philippines—Interest Rates 2008-2019 

 

Statistics 

MUTUAL FUNDS 

DBF FCB PBF PB0 PMM PSF 

Coefficients 2.768 .306 -3.14 28.1 -.084 -2.230 

Durbin-Watson 1.91 2.97 1.91 1.10 2.016 2.010 

Std. Dev. (Res.).314 .775 .775 .775 .775 .775 .775 

t-value -.437 .134 -.404 .160 -303 -.298 

Mean (Residuals) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

p-value .677 .898 .700 .878 .772 .776 

F-Value 1.11 .686 1.19 2.27 .726 .773 

p-value .42 .627 .403 .177 .605 .581 

r-squared .42 .314 .442 .602 .326 .340 



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Table 2 provides a summary of the derived regression equation in relation to interest rate.  

Coefficients. Interest rate had positive effect on FCB and PBO. The rest of the mutual funds were 

negatively affected by interest rate. The t-values were significantly low resulting to high p-values 

(greater than .05). The initial values of the mutual funds are not significant. 

Durbin-Watson test. The Durbin-Watson test showed that the mutual funds were on normal ranges 

although negatively increasing but not significant. The volatility test indicates that the mutual funds 

had unit roots but deviating insignificantly from the unit root on a negative direction. In such case, 

these mutual funds provided expected returns. 

Standard deviation of residuals and mean of residuals. The standard deviation of the residuals was 

0.775 with a mean equal to zero. The mean equal to zero indicates that the mutual funds were not 

volatile as to the effects of interest rates, that is, they were significantly close to the mean, or expected 

returns. 

F-test of significance of derived equation. The F-test to determine the significance of the derived 

equation yielded low F-values and correspondingly high p-values that were greater than .05. 

r-squared. The computed r-square were quite low for the mutual funds (.314-.602). The remaining 

explanatory variables were not included in the regression. 

Conclusions. Interest rates over the period 2008-2019 had no significant effect on the performance of 

the mutual funds. The funds remained resilient and yielded expected returns. 

 

Table 3. F-Test Performance of Mutual Funds in the Philippines—Exchange Rates 2008-2019 

 

Statistics 

MUTUAL FUNDS 

DBF FCB PBF PB0 PMM PSF 

Coefficients 3.094 .333 3.853 -.419 .062 2.580 

Durbin-Watson 1.91 2.97 1.90 2.20 2.016 2.010 

Std. Dev. (Res.) .775 .775 .775 .755 .775 .775 

Mean (Residuals) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

t-value 1.065 .134 -.404 -.800 -303 -.298 

p-value .677 .898 .700 ,454 .772 .776 

F-Value 1.117 .686 2.271 2.271 .726 .773 

p-value .429 .627 .177 .177 .605 .581 

r-square .427 .314 .326 .602 .326 .340 

 

 



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Table 3 provides the summary of the performance of mutual funds as to the effects of exchange rates. 

Coefficients. Except for PBO, the rest of the mutual funds had positive opening returns except for PBO 

that was affected negatively by exchange rates. The t-test of significance of these coefficients yielded 

t-values that were significantly low and correspondingly with high p-values that were greater than .05, 

that is, the initial returns are not significant and expected to change for the given yield period. 

Durbin-Watson test. Except for FCB with a high DW = 2.97, all the rest of the mutual funds were 

within the normal range (1.898-2.209). These mutual funds had unit roots and were changing 

negatively overtime, though not significantly. FCB exhibited a high DW value moving to the 

downside. 

Standard deviation of residuals and mean of residuals. The computed standard deviation of the 

residuals was .775 with a mean equal to zero. This result shows that the yield of the mutual funds was 

very close to the mean or expected returns. 

F-value test of the regression equation. The F-value was low for all mutual funds with a corresponding 

p-values that were greater than .05, indicating that the derived equation cannot be used to predict 

mutual funds performance for the next period. 

r-square. The computed r-squares range from 0.314 to .602 that explained the extent to which the 

explanatory variable, exchange rate affected the value of the mutual funds. Other explanatory variables 

were yet to be identified. 

Conclusions. The mutual funds’ performance was not significantly affected by exchange rates. They 

remained resilient and yielded expected returns. 

 

4. Discussions 

The Box-Ljung test is a diagnostic tool used to test the lack of fit of a time series model. The test 

examines autocorrelations of the residuals. The autocorrelations were very small and not significant; 

thus, it can be safely concluded that the derived regression equations did not significantly lack fit. 

Macroeconomic variables. The Philippines economic forecasts-2018-2019 outlook provided a declining 

trend from 5.20% 2018 to 4.3% in 2019. The downtrend in inflation provided an upturn of the mutual 

funds as seen in the inverse relation of the mutual funds (-coefficients), that is, an upturn of inflation rate 

reflects a corresponding downturn in mutual fund values. As the economic forecast was expected for 

inflation rates to decrease further to Year 2020, values of mutual funds are expected to rise. This result 

confirmed the earlier findings by researcher as seen in the introduction section. Other authors meanwhile 

found out that inflation has actually no effect on the value of the mutual fund overtime.  

Likewise, interest rates are expected to rise from 3.5% in 2018 to 4.0% in 2020. The results showed that 

an increase in interest rate will cause to increase the return of investors. This result confirmed earlier 

results of study done as seen in the introduction. 

 



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The Durbin-Watson results showed that although the mutual values are decreasing overtime, the 

decreases were not significant as they were within the normal range of negatively changing or positively 

changing overtime. 

The standard deviations and means of the residuals showed that the changes or volatility of the funds 

were not significant. For the investor, a quick adjustment in the mutual fund portfolio will provide a 

hedge against inflation rate.  

The dollar denominated funds as expected were vulnerable to inflation rate as the peso had to be 

exchanged to dollar value in the foreign country to which these funds are invested. 

The t-tests of significance of the macroeconomic variables to the mutual funds were not significant, that 

is, their effects on the changes of the fund values were not significant except for some with DW > 2.209 

which reflected a concern. 

The F-test significance of the derived regression equations was not also significant which can be inferred 

that these were not valid tools to predict the values of the mutual based on macroeconomic variables as 

inflation rate, interest rate and inflation rate. These finding was supported by the low r-square test. The 

test showed there were more explanatory variables that were needed to be part of the study. 

Other studies focused on trade balance, public debt and political environment which provided significant 

effects to mutual funds can be explored. Further studies could be done to throw in as many explanatory 

variables and run them through a multiple wise regression to end up with a meaningful few. 

Overall, Philippine mutual funds for the period 2008-2019 were resilient and yielded expected returns. 

 

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