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https://doi.org/10.56556/gssr.v3i1.622 

                                                                  

 

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RESEARCH ARTICLE  

Test of Good Governance in Nigeria using World Bank indicators  

Ibitomi Taiwo1*, Micah Elton Ezekiel Mike2, Gaude-Jiwul Paulina Shittu3, Aiyedogbon 

Olanipekun Joseph1, Lawrence Monday Olorunfemi4   

 
1Department of Business Administration, Achievers University, Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria 
2Department of Accounting, Air Force Institutes of Technology, Kaduna, Nigeria 
3Department of Business Administration, Karl Kumm University, Vom, Plateau State, Nigeria 
4Department of Statistics, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna State, Nigeria 

 

Corresponding Author: Ibitomi Taiwo: Prof4real4all@gmail.com  

Received: 26 August, 2023, Accepted: 04 February, 2024, Published: 06 February, 2024 

 

Abstract 

The concern for good governance and its role in development process has increased since 1980s. Nigeria has 

experienced uninterrupted democracy since 1999. This study carryout a test of good governance in Nigeria using 

the six indicators of good governance used by World Bank. Specifically, the study determine the effect of voice and 

accountability, political stability and absence of violence and terrorism, government effectiveness, regulatory 

quality, rule of law and control of corruption on economic development in Nigeria using per capita GDP as a proxy 

for economic development. Inflation rate and oil price were included in the model in order to produce a robust 

model. Annual data covering 1999 to 2022 were collected from World Bank website. Descriptive statistics were 

used to summarize data while Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and Bound tests were used to estimate 

relationship. Findings revealed that the performance of governance in Nigeria in all the six indicators during the 

period of study was weak. This consequently affect per capita income negatively both in the short-run and long-

run. It was concluded that governance has negative effect on economic development in Nigeria. It was 

recommended that the government should use worldwide indicators to conduct self-evaluation and carry out reforms 

that will help to improve governance in Nigeria for the purpose of achieving development or improving the 

wellbeing of Nigerians. 

 

Keywords: Good governance; development; democracy; World Bank Indicators; inflation rate; oil price 

 

 

Introduction  

 

The origin of good governance can be traced to response to the weak governance in the African continent in 1980s.  

The World Bank Structural Adjustment Programme was unable to solve the economic challenges of the African 

countries. This made the World Bank to conclude that that a part from economic factors, political factors and most 

especially bad governance signified by high level of corruption, absence of transparency and respect for human 

right orchestrated by the authoritative political system practiced in these countries was responsible for the economic 

failure of Structural Adjustment Programme in the African countries (Muhammad & Rizwan, 2021).



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 Consequently, World Bank identified good governance as prerequisite for qualification for development finance 

by developing countries. Good governance and economic development have been associated. Hope (2022), sees 

good governance as the force that boosts democracy, strengthen  rule of law and public accountability and supports 

state institutions, thereby creating viable environments that supports economic development. Similarly, Mushbahu 

(2021) opined that the implementation of good governance practices is vital for the successful accomplishment of 

development programs in Nigeria. Good governance as observed by (Bello, 2021) increases the economic welfare, 

while bad governance reduces the welfare of citizens through unfavourable or unfriendly policies and weak 

implementation of policies that are good. Judging from the experience of developed nations around the world, good 

governance is connected to democracy and democracy associated with rise in economic welfare. However, the 

economic performance and welfare of Nigerians have not improved as revealed by economic indices despite over 

twenty years of uninterrupted democracy.  Available statistics indicate that unemployment rate increased from 

13.9% in 1999 to 32% in 2022, poverty rate rose from 6.6% in 1999 to 28.9% in 2022. Inflation rate exhibited an 

upward trend rising from 6.6% in 1999 to 21.3% in 2022. The implication of these statistics is that the wellbeing of 

Nigerians has fallen over the years despite the huge amount of natural and human the country is endowed with 

(Samuel & Chekwube, 2021; Ibitomi et al., 2022). Since 1996, World Bank has developed six indicators used for 

measuring the performance of governments worldwide; the expectation is that strong governance performance, all 

things being equal, translates to development. These indicators include voice and accountability, government 

effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence and terrorism, regulatory quality, rule of law, control of 

corruption. The indicators are standardized data whose values range from -2.5 and 2.5. The mean of the data is zero. 

Positive values or values greater than zero indicate strong governance performance while negative values signify 

weak performance. These indicators have been used to empirically carry out tests of good governance of countries, 

especially in developing countries of the world ( Al-Naser & Hamdan, 2021).  

From the preceding, it can be deduced that good governance has been acknowledged as a prerequisite for economic 

development, especially in developing countries. Also, indicators have been developed for measuring good 

governance performance among countries. However, there is dearth of empirical studies on good governance and 

economic development in Nigeria, especially studies that utilized World Bank Governance Indicators or variables 

as independent variables. Moreover, the few available studies revealed mixed results, while some found positive 

relationship (Ogi, Eze & Ene, 2023); others (Richard, et. al. 2020) showed negative relationship between 

governance and economic performance. This implies that lack of consensus among these studies. Consequently, 

this study is in furtherance of inconclusive state of empirical studies on governance and economic performance in 

Nigeria. The focus of the study is to assess if there are significant relationships between WGIs, namely voice and 

accountability, political stability and absence of violence and terrorism, government effectiveness, regulatory 

quality, rule of law and control of corruption and economic development.  The remaining part of the paper is 

organized as follows: Section two deals with literature review, section three presents the methodology of the study. 

Results and discussion of findings are presented in section four while section five draws conclusions based on 

findings  and gives policy recommendations that will help to improve governance and economic development in 

Nigeria.   

 

Literature Review 

Conceptual Review 

 

According to World Bank (2020), Governance is the procedure through which institutional decisions are made and 

exercised in a country. Similarly, Alaaraj (2015) views good governance as a political and institutional system that 



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promotes openness, accountability and public participation. Adeboyega and Arikewuyo (2020) describe good 

governance through outcomes. In this regard, they view good governance is related to the capacity of the 

government to deliver accurately public goods such as education, water, health, security, among others demanded 

by the citizens. Lin (2014) defined good governance as strong capacity in the form of adequate economic power 

and strong political structure and provision of public services for promoting industrial and economic growth. 

The components of Good Governance have been grouped into six indicators. World Bank (2021) describes the 

indicators as voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, and 

regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption as indices used for measuring the performance of 

government worldwide and testing good governance. 

 

Voice and Accountability and Political stability and absence of violence and terrorism  

 

The first two indicators cover the process of selection, monitoring and replacement of governments. Voice and 

Accountability being the first criterion any government must meet to be referred to as good governance refers to 

the degree of participation of the citizens in electing the people who govern them. It also captures freedom of 

expression, association and freedom of the press  ( Ibitomi & Micah, 2021). The second indicator, political stability 

and absence of terrorism estimate the tendency of disruptions in the government through means that are not 

legal/constitutional or through violence which includes terrorism (Hasan & Hassan, 2021).  

 

Government effectiveness and Regulatory quality 

 

The effectiveness of government determines the level of the quality of policies formulated and implemented by the 

government and how credible government commitments towards its policies are (Hasan & Hassan, 2021). 

Regulatory quality on the other hand, captures the capacity of the government in terms of improvements experienced 

by both public and private sectors as a result of the policies and regulations of the government. Kaufmann, Daniel 

in Kraay, Aart (2012) argued that good governance leads to economic development due to promotion of quality 

regulatory environment that that efficiently and effectively stimulates both the public and private sectors of the 

economy. 

 

Rule of law and control of corruption 

 

The last two indicators of good governance relate to the respect of citizens and the state in terms of the institutions 

that guides economic and social interactions in the country. Rule of law defines the indicator that measures the 

extent to which the citizens are aware and accept the rules and regulations of the country, the law enforcement 

agencies (police), courts and its connected associates. Commenting on the importance of rule of law in an economy, 

Burgess (2012) opined that a country that is governed by the rule of law experiences stability that definitely 

stimulates investment and establishment of enterprises by domestic and foreign investors due to the fact that they 

feel protected by fair implementation of laws by the judiciary system existing in a country(Awad et al., 2021).  

The United Nations defines corruption as acquisition of private gains through misuse or abuse of power.  

Transparency International gives a more clear definition of corruption as the abuse of entrusted power for obtaining 

private gain (CLEEN Foundation, 2010). Furthermore, Ogundiya (2019) gave a broad scope of corruption which 

covers behavious that include embezzlement, bribery, fraud, conflict of Interests, rigging of elections, 

misappropriation, and conversion of public funds for personal gains, extortion, and manipulation of procurement 

processes, favouritism, among others. 



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 Corruption has been recognized as one of the major factors that limits economic growth in many countries.  In view 

of this, Kaufmann (2019) contend that good governance involves the implementation of appropriate measures to 

curb or minimize corruption in order to achieve economic growth. Xu (2019) also shares similar view about control 

of corruption and economic growth. According to him, good governance involves controlling of corruption through 

effective control of the country’s resources in order to promote economic growth.  He stated further that failure to 

control corruption leads to waste of resources, inefficiency in the management of government revenue and reduction 

in economic growth. 

 

Economic Development  

 

Bolarinwa (2013) citing Mabogunje (1980) sees development as a dynamic process that involves quantitative 

growth and qualitative change, and must finally result in improvement in material welfare of the people. Emmanuel 

(2005) and Ibitomi, et al., (2022) advances besides increase in standard of living which involves increase in 

consumption, improved health, education and, development also means equal opportunities, political freedoom and 

civil liberties. UNDP definition of development centres on people and therefore uses three indicators which are 

longevity, knowledge and standard of living, collectively known as Human Development Index to measure 

development. In quantitative terms, development is measured using GNP per capita/GDP per capita which is 

measures of per capita income. This measure determines the capacity of a country to increase its   output at a rate 

that is greater than the rate at which the population growing (Muo, 2006). 

Theoretical review 

There is lack of consensus among available theories regarding the relationship between governance and wellbeing 

of the citizen.  The conflict school maintains that democracy or governance creates consumption forces, instigates 

conflicts in distribution and discourages accumulation of capital. Consequently, democracy hampers growth process 

in developing economies. However, empirical findings, in general have failed to provide empirical support to 

conflict school argument (Przeworskiet, 2000). The next school which is also known as Compatibility theoreticians 

postulate due to the presence of both fundamental human and political rights, democracy or governance creates the 

appropriate social environment that favours the development of the economy. Consequently, governance influences 

growth positively (Richard, 2020). The number three school is known as the Skeptical School. This school opines 

that there is no relationship between governance and economic development.  Their claim as stated by Knack (2013)  

is due to inconsistences  that characterize  old as well as new growth theories, which  fail to provide theoretical 

explanation regarding variables that describe development in a good number of countries. 

Solow growth model states that the long run growth or output of an economy is determined by the utilization of 

capital, labour and knowledge. The functional form of the model is illustrated in equation 1 below: 

  

Y(t) = f (K (t), A(t) L(t) …………………………………………………………. (1) 

 

Y represents output, K denotes capital, L is effective labour, A stands for knowledge while t represents time.  A and 

L are placed in the model in a multiplicative way (Romer, 1996). Governance as an organization responsible for the 

management of the economy enters the model the policies formulated and implemented targeted towards increasing 

economic growth and standard of living of the populace. This means that proper implementation of public policies 

all things being equal, will lead to increase in output through its influence on capital and the effective labour factors 

(Richard, et al, 2020). 



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Empirical review 

Empirical studies across countries revealed in general that good governance have positive effect on economic 

development. 

Ogili, Eze and Ene (2023) examined good governance and socio-economic development in Enugu State, Nigeria. 

Specifically, the study investigated the effect of good governance on poverty reduction. Descriptive survey design 

was adopted and data was collected through a structured questionnaire. Z-test was used to test hypothesis. Results 

showed that good governance significantly affect poverty reduction. Richard, et al. (2020) carried out an empirical 

investigation on the impact of  governance on economic wellbeing in Nigeria. Economic wellbeing was measured 

by per capita GDP growth. Quarterly time series data covering 1996 to 2018 and  autoregressive distributed lag 

model (ARDL) bounds test method of estimation was adopted. Findings revealed that the impact of governance on 

economic well-being both in the short-run and long-run were negative and significant.  

Recuero and Gonzales (2019) in their study found that institutional quality was positively related to economic 

development. The study also revealed that the direction of causality can change depending on the type of variables 

that signifying institutional quality. Although economic development depends on legal institutional quality, 

Improvement in institutional quality is also a key to economic development. The findings of this study is similar to 

Similarly, Habbyrimana and Dushimayezu (2018) utilized determined the relationship between  governance and 

economic growth in Rwanda using correlational technique. Findings showed that governance have positive 

relationship with economic growth. Bayar (2016) and Lahouij (2017) who found a positive relationship between 

good governance and economic development.  

Hypotheses of the Study 

 

H01:  Voice and accountability has no significant effect on economic development in Nigeria. 

H02: Political stability and absence of violence and terrorism on economic development in Nigeria; 

H03 : There is no significant relationship between government effectiveness and economic development in Nigeria. 

H04 :  There is no significant relationship between regulatory quality and economic development in Nigeria. 

H05 :  Rule of law has no significant effect on economic development in Nigeria. 

H06 : Control of corruption has no significant effect on economic development in Nigeria. 

 

Methodology 

 

This study adopted expo-facto research design. Expo-factor research design finds out factors that are related to 

particular occurrence, condition, event or behaviuor through analysis of past or already existing data (Kothari & 

Gerg, 2014). Due to availability of time series data on governance measured by World Governance and data on 

economic development measured by per capita income, expo-facto design was adopted. The design was also 

adopted because according to Lammers and Badia (2005) expo-facto design does not permit the manipulation of  

the independent variable by the researcher. 

Secondary source of data was utilized in this study. Specifically, annual data covering 1999 to 2022  were collected 

from World Bank official website. WGI data are in two forms which are standardized normal scores and percentile 

measures. WGI are standardized normal data ranging from -2.5 and 2.5. The mean of the data is zero. Positive 



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values or values greater than zero indicate strong governance performance while negative values signify weak 

performance. The magnitude of the index measures the degree of strength or weakness of governance. For instance, 

the closer the index is to -2.5, the weaker the governance and a value close to 2.5 indicate very strong governance. 

Publication of WGIs commenced in 1996 but the values for 1997, 1999 and 2001 are not available. The percentile 

measure on the other hand ranges from 0 to 100. 

The independent variables of the study are the six World Bank Indicators used to measure the measure good 

governance namely voice and accountability, government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence 

and terrorism, regulatory quality, rule of law, control of corruption. The indicators were developed by two World 

Bank researchers Daniel Kaufmann and Aart Kraay in 1999. The main purpose of the data was for international 

comparison and evaluation of general trend over time (World Bank, 2023). These indicators have been used in to 

measure the quality of governance of countries and to predict economic growth, development or welfare. Some of 

these studies include (Recuero &Gonzales, 2019; Richard, 2020; Senturk & Ali, 2022).  

The dependent variable economic development was proxy by real per capita income.  The choice of real capita 

income was based on the fact that it is one of the most common measure of economic development as indicated by 

previous empirical studies (Siyakiya, 2017; Glerghina, 2019, Richard et al., 2020; Senturk & Ali, 2022). 

Since economic development does not only depend on political factors but also on economic factors, 

macroeconomic factors were included in the model of the study as control variables. In order to minimize the error 

term in the model due to omission of variables, inflation rate and price of oil were included as control variables in 

the study. A variable is controlled when is effect on the dependent variable is kept constant. Control variables are 

variables incorporated in multivariate analysis to detect spurious relationship. It is important to examine whether 

the relationship between dependent and independent variables continues after the effects of other variables affecting 

the dependent variables have been removed (McChendon, 2002). The inclusion of inflation rate and oil price was 

based on the fact that literature review indicated that they were significant determinants of per capita income in 

Nigeria ( Oranefo, 2022). 

The first stage in regression analysis involves specification of model involves expressing the relationship between 

dependent variable and independent variables using mathematical equations (Gujarati, 2006). Multiple regression 

model was formulated for the study. The model of Senturk and Ali (2022) was adopted in the study with little 

modification. They regressed economic development (Per capita income) as a linear function of quality governance 

(Six World Bank Indicators of Good Governance), inflation rate. In this study, economic development (measured 

by per capita income) is modeled as a function of  six Worldwide Governance indicators  of World Bank, inflation 

rate and oil price. 

The econometric model of the study is stated as: 

 

 PIt=𝛽0+𝛽1VAC𝑡+𝛽2𝐺𝐸𝑡+𝛽3PSAVT𝑡+𝛽4RQ𝑡+𝛽5RL𝑡+𝛽6COC𝑡+𝛽7INFR𝑡+𝛽8𝑂𝐼𝐿P𝑡 +𝜀𝑖𝑡  

 

Where: 

 

PI = Per capita income ( a measure of economic development),      VAC = Voice and accountability, 

GE = Government effectiveness, RQ= Regulatory quality,   RL = Rule of law,  

PSAVT =Political stability and absence of violence and terrorism,  COC = Control of corruption, 

OILP = Oil price (Measured by annual average price of Nigeria oil in dollars, per barrel in the world market),        

INFR = Inflation rate  

𝜀𝑖𝑡 =  Error term that captures other determinants of economic development that were omitted in the model. 

𝛽0 and 𝛽1  - 𝛽8  are regression parameters to be estimated.       



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 𝛽0 = Intercept of the regression model 

𝛽1  - 𝛽8   = are regression parameters that measure the effects of the independent variables on the dependent variable. 

 

Based on economic theory, good governance is expected to positively affect economic development. Therefore, the 

parameters 𝛽1  - 𝛽6 > 0. Similarly, rise in price of oil in the world market is expected to influenced per capita income 

of the country positively, hence, 𝛽8 >0 while increase in inflation rate is expected to lead to a decrease in per capita 

income. Therefore, 𝛽1 < 0. 

Both descriptive statistics and econometric techniques of estimating relationships were adopted in the study. The 

descriptive statistics utilized in the study included mean, mode, median, minimum value, maximum value, standard 

deviation, coefficient of skewness and kurtosis.  

The econometric technique adopted were Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and bounds test 

developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) of measuring short-run and long-run relationship among economic 

variables. The choice of the technique was a result of the fact that the variables were a mixture of integration of 

order zero (I(0)) and integration of order one (I(1)).  

Diagnostic tests carried on the residuals obtained from the estimated model in order to determine whether the 

assumptions of least square regression have been met. Specifically, Jarque-Bera test was used to test the normality 

of the residuals, Breusch –Pagan Godfrey tests determine the absence of heteroskedascity in the model while 

Breusch – Godfrey Serial correlation LM test was used to check the absence of serial correlation in the model. 

Moreover, CUSUM test was used to test the stability of the regression estimates. 

 

Results   

 

Data Presentation and Analysis  

 

Table 1 presents the data on the dependent and independent variables of the study. Specifically, the data relate to 

Nigeria’s Per capital GDP (PCGDP), World Bank indicators of governance, inflation rate and oil price (OILP).  

Descriptive Statistic 

The data were summarized through   descriptive measures namely the mean, median, maximum, minimum, standard 

deviation , skewness and coefficient of kurtosis presented in table 2. 

The mean of all the governance indicators are negative, indicating that weak governance during the period 1999 to 

2022 in Nigeria. However, worst performance is experience in terms of political stability and absence of violence 

and terrorism (-1.898). This is followed by control of corruption (-1.155), rule of law (-1.102) and government 

effectiveness (-1.041). Governance in voice and accountability and regulatory quality are relatively higher with 

mean scores (-0.618) and (-0.900) respectively. Average per capita income, inflation rate and average oil price were 

($1909.41),  17.6% and $58.02 per barrel. 

The standard deviations of governance indicators ( 0.162,  0.187, 0.089, 0.162,  0.201 and 0.146) and inflation rate 

(3.117) are low indicating that the variables were stable during the period of study while the standard deviations 

($763.542) and ($26.07) indicate that per capita income and oil price were characterized by fluctuations from 1999 

to 2022.  The  coefficients of skewness (0.381, 0.528, 0.684 and 0.304) show that  voice and accountability, political 

stability and absence of violence and terrorism, inflation rate and oil price are positively skewed, implying that their 

values are concentrated at left of their mean values while per capita income, government effectiveness, regulatory 

quality, rule of law and control of corruption are negatively skewed revealed by the coefficients of skewness (-

0.398, -0.408, -0.682 and -0.792) respectively. This indicates that their values are concentrated at the right of their 



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mean values. The coefficient of kurtosis (3.485) shows that regulatory quality has a high peaked distribution since 

coefficient of kurtosis is greater than 3.0 while the coefficient of kurtosis (3.014) has a moderate peak (mesokurtic). 

The other variables have flat peak distributions (platykurtic) since their coefficients of kurtosis are less than 3.0. 

Table 1: Distribution of Nigeria’s GDP per capita, World Bank Indicators of governance , inflation rate and oil 

price from 2000 to 2022 

Year Per capita 

GDP 

($) 

 

VA 

PSAVT GE RQ RL COC INFR 

(%) 

OILP 

($) 

2000 565.3  -0.48 -1.46 -0.97 -0.88 -1.16 -1.32 17.98 18.07 

2002 733.5 -0.63 -1.63 -1.02 -1.18 -1.5 -1.5 24.85 24.23 

2003 786.8 -0.66 -1.64 -0.92 -1.23 -1.51 -1.42 20.71 24.93 

2004 992.7 -0.8 -1.75 -0.94 -1.29 -1.44 -1.38 19.18 28.9 

2005 1250.4 -0.87 -1.67 -0.9 -0.79 -1.35 -1.18 17.95 37.73 

2006 1652.2 -0.62 -2.03 -0.97 -0.95 -1.08 -1.13 17.26 53.39 

2007 1876.4 -0.76 -2.01 -1.04 -0.89 -1.06 -1.07 16.94 64.29 

2008 2270.8 -0.74 -1.86 -1 -0.82 -1.04 -0.9 15.14 71.12 

2009 1883.9 -0.85 -1.99 -1.2 -0.76 -1.16 -1.04 18.99 96.99 

2010 2280.1 -0.78 -2.21 -1.17 -0.74 -1.16 -1.05 17.59 61.76 

2011 2504.9 -0.71 -1.96 -1.11 -0.7 -1.18 -1.19 16.02 79.04 

2012 2728 -0.7 -2.04 -1 -0.72 -1.14 -1.18 16.79 104.01 

2013 2976.8 -0.69 -2.09 -1 -0.68 -1.12 -1.23 16.72 105.01 

2014 3201 -0.59 -2.13 -1.19 -0.84 -1.06 -1.28 16.55 96.24 

2015 2679.6 -0.37 -1.93 -0.97 -0.87 -0.97 -1.07 16.85 50.75 

2016 2145 -0.32 -1.88 -1.09 -0.93 -1.03 -1.02 16.87 42.81 

2017 2204 -0.34 -2 -1.02 -0.9 -0.87 -1.08 17.56 52.81 

2018 2033 -0.43 -2.1 -1.1 -0.86 -0.9 -1.06 19.33 68.35 

2019 2230 -0.43 -1.92 -1.18 -0.93 -0.92 -1.08 15.53 61.41 

2020 2075 -0.58 -1.87 -1.12 -1.01 -0.83 -1.08 12.32 41.26 

2021 2204 -0.64 -1.78 -1 -0.93 -0.86 -1.07 11.55 69.07 

2022 2429.6 -0.6 -1.8 -1 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 21.34 97.1 

Source: World Bank, 2022 

 

Table 3 shows the unit root test conducted on the variables. With the exception of political stability and absence of 

violence and terrorism which is stationary at level, all other variables are stationary at first difference. This indicate 

that they are integrated of order one ( I(1)). Since the variables are a mixture of integration at level and first 

difference, Bound cointegration test developed by Pesaran et al (2001) became the appropriate test to be employed. 

However, before embarking on cointegration test, the appropriate ARDL model was selected through Akaike 

information criteria (AIC). 

 

 



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Table 2 :  Descriptive Statistics   

   

GDPPC   

 

VA  PSAVT 

 

GE 

 

RQ 

 

RL 

 

COC 

 

INFR 

 

OILP 

  

Mean 

 

1909.41 

 -0.618 -1.898 -1.041 -0.900 -1.102 -1.155 

 

 

 

17.6 

 

 

 

 

58.02 

 

Median 

2110 

 -0.635 -1.925 -1.010 -0.885 -1.070 -1.090 

 

17.1 

 

 

57.4 

 

 

Maximum 3201 

 -0.320 -1.460 -0.900 -0.680 -0.830 -0.900 

24.9 

 

105.0 

 

 

 

Minimum 565.3 -0.870 -2.210 -1.200 -1.290 -1.510 -1.500 

 

11.5 

 

18.07 

 

Std. Dev 763.542 

  0.162  0.187  0.089  0.162  0.201  0.146 

3.117 

 

26.77 

 

Skewness 

-0.398  0.381  0.528 -0.408 -0.986 -0.682 -0.792 

0.684 

 

0.304 

 

Kurtosis 0.749 

  2.145  2.710  2.036  3.485  2.629  3.014 

1.758 

 

0.840 

 

Observatio

ns 

22 

22 22 22 

 

22 

 

22 

 

22 

 

22 

 

22 

Source: Eviews 9.0 output, 2023 

Table 3 : Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root 

Variables ADF –Statistic 5% ADF Critical value Probability 

value 

Order of 

integration 

GDPPC  -3.462798  -3.040391 0.0221 I(1) 

VA -5.253917 -3.040391 0.0006 I(1) 

PSAVT -3.123107   -3.029970  0.0418 I(0) 

GE -6.684709 -3.040391  0.0000 I(1) 

RQ 5.278974 -3.040391  0.0006 I(1) 

ROL -5.136722 -3.040391 0.0007 I(1) 

COC -4.252281 -3.040391 0.0045 I(1) 

INFR -4.369887 -3.040391 0.0035 I(1) 

OILP -3.927955 -3.040391 0.0087 I(1) 

Source : Eviews 9.0 output, 2023 

 

 



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Cointegration test  

 

Table 4: Bounds test output  

Null hypothesis: There is no long run relationship among the dependent variable and  

independent variables 

 

Null Hypothesis: No long-run relationships exist 

Test Statistic Value K 

F-statistic  9.377284 8 

Critical Value Bounds 

Significance I0 Bound I1 Bound 

10% 1.95 3.06 

5% 2.22 3.39 

2.5% 2.48 3.7 

1% 2.79 4.1 

 

The F-statistic (9.377 ) as shown in table 4 is greater than the upper critical bound (3.39) at 5% level of significance. 

This reveals long run relationship exists among the variables. 

 

Short run and Long run regression output  

 

The short run and long run coefficients of voice and accountability (-167.59) and (-117.48) show that voice and 

accountability has negative effects both in the short run and long-run on per capita income. The estimates are 

significant at 5% level of significance indicated by their probabilities (0.0185) and (0.044) respectively which are 

less than 0.05. Consequently, the null hypothesis that voice and accountability has no significant effect on economic 

development was rejected. 

Political stability and absence of violence and terrorism on the other hand has negative effect on per capital income 

in the short-run indicated by coefficient (-102.33) and probability (0.0178). However, in the long-run, the effect is 

positive shown by coefficient (25.95) and probability (0.0269). Since the probabilities of the coefficients are less 

than 0.05, the null hypothesis that Political stability and absence of violence and terrorism has no significant effect 

on economic development was rejected. 

Government effectiveness has negative effects on per capita income both in the short-run and in the long-run shown 

by coefficients (-72.25) and (-12.85). Their probabilities (0.0495) and (0.0297) are less than 0.05, indicating that 

the estimates are significant at 5%. This led to the rejection of the hypothesis that there is no significant relationship 

between Government effectiveness and economic development. 

Moreover, the coefficients of regulatory quality in the short-run and long-run(57.52) and (-29.659) reveal that 

regulatory quality has positive effect on per capita income in the short-run and negative effect in the long-run. 

However, the probabilities (0.9413) and (0.0391) indicate that the short-run coefficient is insignificant while the 

long-run estimate is significant at 5% level of significant. As a result of these, we reject the null hypothesis that 

there is no significant relationship between regulatory quality and economic development. 

Furthermore, rule of law has significant negative effect on per capita income shown by the coefficient (-19.059) 

and probability (0.0069) while the effect in the long-run is positive and significant shown by coefficient (188.647) 

and probability (0.0282). Consequently, the null hypothesis that there is no significant relationship between rule of 

law and development was rejected. 



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Table 5 : Dependent Variable: GDPPC 

Method: ARDL 

Selected Model: ARDL(2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1) 

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.*   

          GDPPC(-1) 0.291293 0.271896 1.071339 0.0481 

GDPPC(-2) 1.186266 0.436178 2.719684 0.0243 

VAC -167.5968 97.1862 -1.724492 0.0185 

VAC(-1) -117.4869 51.78578 -2.268709 0.0443 

PSAVT 25.94806 6.66720 3.891896 0.0269 

PSAVT(-1) -102.3326 18.81948 -5.437589 0.0178 

GE -72.24697 14.19923 -5.088090 0.0495 

GE(-1) -12.85343 4.11023 -3.127180 0.0297 

RQ -29.65941 10.09385 -2.938364 0.0391 

RQ(-1) 57.52354 31.97700 1.798903 0.9413 

ROL 188.6477 81.00123 2.328949 0.0282 

ROL(-1) -19.05632 8.42011 -2.263191 0.0069 

COC 9.459448 2.63888 3.584645 0.0933 

COC(-1) -113.0114 21.51887 -5.251734 0.0392 

INFR -26.76535 13.63983 1.962294 0.0221 

INFR(-1) -137.8569 62.23608 1.676355 0.0424 

OILP 3.544502 1.833688 0.733291 0.0272 

OILP(-1) -16.80612 7.29686 -1.632160 0.0799 

C 5398.446 2092.200 2.580272 0.0354 

          
R-squared 0.698972     Mean dependent var 2035.405 

Adjusted R-squared 0.680474     S.D. dependent var 678.0795 

F-statistic 54.00234     Durbin-Watson stat 2.181641 

Prob(F-statistic) 0.106731    

Source: Authors’ computation from the ARDL model  

 

Also, control of corruption has significant negative effect positive on per capita income in the short-run  shown by 

coefficient (-113.01) and probability (0.039 < 0.05) while the effect in the long-run though positive shown by 

coefficient (9.459) is not significant since the probability (0.093) is greater than 0.05. Consequently, the null 

hypothesis that there is no significant relationship with control of corruption was rejected. 

In addition, inflation rate has significant negative effects on per capita income both in the short-run and long-run 

revealed by the coefficients (-26.76, probability 0.02 < 0.05) and (-137.85, probability 0.04 < 0.05). Oil price in the 

world market has  no significant effect on per capita income in the short-run shown by coefficient (-16.80) and 

probability (0.079) while the effect in the long-run is positive and statistically significant at 5% shown by coefficient 

(3.544) and p-value (0.02 < 0.05). 

 

 

 

 

 



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 Diagnostic tests for the model  

 

 Serial autocorrelation test 

 

Table 6: Correlogram-Q-Statistic 

Q-statistic probabilities adjusted for 2 dynamic regressors 

Autocorrelation Partial Correlation  AC   PAC  Q-Stat  Prob* 

       
       
     ***|  .   |      ***|  .   | 1 -0.416 -0.416 3.9992 0.046 

     . *|  .   |      ***|  .   | 2 -0.183 -0.430 4.8203 0.090 

     .  |* .   |      . *|  .   | 3 0.203 -0.126 5.8819 0.118 

     .  |  .   |      .  |  .   | 4 0.053 0.060 5.9598 0.202 

     .**|  .   |      .**|  .   | 5 -0.279 -0.211 8.2382 0.144 

     .  |  .   |      ***|  .   | 6 -0.030 -0.384 8.2665 0.219 

     .  |* .   |      .**|  .   | 7 0.209 -0.247 9.7460 0.203 

     .  |  .   |      .  |  .   | 8 0.037 0.051 9.7960 0.280 

     .  |  .   |      .  |**.   | 9 -0.046 0.265 9.8814 0.360 

     . *|  .   |      .**|  .   | 10 -0.167 -0.212 11.113 0.349 

     .  |**.   |      .  |  .   | 11 0.331 -0.012 16.459 0.125 

     .**|  .   |      .  |  .   | 12 -0.207 -0.054 18.817 0.093 

       
       
*Probabilities may not be valid for this equation specification. 

 

The probability of all the estimated Q-Statistics as shown in table 6 are greater than 0.05, indicating that none of 

the statistics was significant at 5% level of significant. Consequently, the null hypothesis of absence of serial 

correlation in the model was not rejected. In other words, the model is free of serial correlation.  

 

Stability test  

Figure 1: Recursive Estimates  – CUSUM Test 

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

2021

CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance  



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The CUSUM stability test output is presented in figure 1. The CUSUM statistic denoted by the blue rectangular bar 

is higher than the critical value indicated by the red rectangular bar. This shows that the estimated SUSUM stability 

statistics is significant at 5% level of significance. The implication is that coefficients of the estimated model are 

stable during the period 1999 to 2022. 

 

 Normality and Heteroskedasticity tests 

 

Table 7: Jarque-Bera Normality test and Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroskedasticity test 

Test Statistic  

 

Probability 

Jarque-Bera Normality test Jarque-Bera                1.5187 

 

0.4680 

Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey 

Heteroskedasticity test 

Obs*R-squared         15.9315 

 

0.5973 

Source: Authors’ computation from the ARDL model 

 

The probability of Jarque- Bera statistic of the model (0.4680)  is greater than 0.05, indicating that the statistic is 

not significant at 5% level of significant. This means that residuals of the model follow normal distribution. 

Similarly, the probability of Obs*R-squared statistic (0.5973) is greater than 0.05. This indicates that the statistic is 

not significant at 5%. This indicates the absence of heteroskedacity in the model. In other words, the model is free 

of heteroskedascity. 

 

Discussion of findings 

Having confirmed the validity of the estimated model which results in its acceptance, the summary and discussion 

of findings are as follows:  

The average value of WGI for voice and accountability indicates weak governance. The regression output shows 

that voice and accountability have significant negative effect on per capita income in Nigeria. This indicates that 

weak participation of the citizen in electing who govern them and poor state of freedom of press have resulted in 

decrease in per capita income and economic development. 

Similarly, there is weak governance performance in terms of political stability, absence of violence and terrorism 

indicated by the mean score. The relationship between political stability, absence of violence and terrorism is 

negative in the short-run and positive in the long-run. The implies that government efforts towards prevention and 

control of violence and terrorism reduces per capita income in the short-run but increases it in the long-run. This 

also means that efforts towards controlling violence and terrorism by the government have not been sustainable. 

Government effectiveness during the period of study is weak indicated by mean score (-1.041). The regression 

output reveals that government effectiveness has negative effect on per capita income both in the short-run and in 

the long-run. These show that the capacity of different regimes of governance over the years to formulate sound 

policies has been weak and when sound policies are formulated, they are usually poorly implemented. Also, the 

quality of public service and regulation of public and private sectors has slow down economic growth and 

development instead of promoting it.  

Moreover, the performance of governance in terms of regulatory quality is weak shown by the mean score (-0.900 

). Regression output shows that regulatory quality has no significant effect on per capita income in the short-run 



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but has significant negative effect in the long-run. This means that government regulations have not been favourable 

to private and public sectors of the economy, hence the decrease in per capita income. 

The mean value of WGI for Nigeria from 1999 to 2022 is -1.102. This value shows that governance in Nigeria is 

weak in terms of fair application of laws and respect of fundamental human rights. The effect on economic 

development is negative in the short-run but positive in the long-run. This means that by and large, the rule of law 

in Nigeria in Nigeria has promoted development notwithstanding the shortcomings in its application in the short-

run. Furthermore, the mean score -2.34 reveals that government performance towards control of corruption is weak. 

This negatively affect the economic development in the short-run and has no significant has insignificant effect in 

the long-run. This means that failure of the government in Nigeria to effectively combat corruption in all forms 

significantly hampered economic development. The findings of this study are supported by  

Conclusion  

This study carried out a test of good governance in Nigeria using World Bank Indicators of Good Governance using 

data spanning from 1999 to 2021. It was revealed that governance (Voice and accountability, Political stability and 

absence of terrorism, Government effectiveness, Regulatory quality, Rule of law and Control of corruption) and 

economic development had significant negative relationship. This means that governance in Nigeria during the 

period of study reduced the wellbeing of Nigerians significantly.  The study showed that among the six governance 

variables, voice and accountability and control of corruption had the highest effect on economic development. These 

were followed by political stability and government effectiveness while regulatory quality and rule of law had the 

least effects on economic wellbeing. 

The findings of this study have both theoretical and practical implications. Theoretically, it has shown that the 

nature of governance in a particular country can be tested through its impact on economic development.  This means 

that the economic performance of a country depends among other factors on political factors, which includes 

governance. Practically, this study provides the Government at all levels, public officers and even the citizens with 

a scale that can be used to measure the performance of governance. The findings also implied that for Nigeria to 

reverse the decline in economic development being experienced by the country as revealed by economic 

development indices, there is the need for strengthening the government and institutions in the country. 

This study is limited to 1999 to 2022. However, the relationship between two time series data is dynamic. This there 

is the possibility for the relationship between governance indicators and economic development in Nigeria to change 

in the future. Consequently, future related studies should focus on using more recent data. Also, this study is only 

limited to Nigeria. For comparison of findings, similar study should be replicated in other developing countries. 

Moreover, using panel data helps to produce superior estimates than when only time series are used. Future studies 

can test good governance using data that cut across countries over time. 

Based on the conclusion of this study, the following recommendations have been suggested: 

i) The first priority of the government in promoting good governance in Nigeria should be the promotion 

of political stability and ensuring absence of violence and terrorism that the country is currently facing. 

This can be done through adoption of peaceful approaches in resolving all forms of peaceful agitations 

from different sections of the country and fighting all forms of violence and terrorist actions towards 

disrupting democracy in the country. 

ii) The next priority should be the fighting all forms of corruption that has eaten deep into all fabrics of 

Nigeria political, economic and social life. This can be done through public enlightenment of the 

citizens on the consequences of corruption via anti-corruption crusade, enactment of corruption laws 

prosecutions of offers. Moreover, anti-corruption and law enforcement agencies should be reformed 

and empowered. 



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iii) This should be followed by entrenching the rule of law in the country. This requires reforms in the 

judiciary and law enforcement agencies, especially the police and time-to time review of rules and 

regulations in order to so to foster justice, peace and protection of fundamental human rights.  

iv)  Urgent reforms tailored towards improving government effectiveness are also needed. Improvements 

should be made in terms of the quality of government policies, public services, civil service, 

guaranteeing the independence of civil service from political forces and promoting credibility in terms 

of government commitment towards implementation of policies. Moreover, in order to ensure that 

public policies are implemented adequately, the legislative arm of government should improve their 

oversight functions. 

v) This priority should be followed by urgent reforms aimed at improving the quality of regulation in the 

country. This can be achieved through adequate implementation of policies meant to improve the 

efficiency of the public and private sectors of the economy. 

vi) There is also the need to increase citizen’s voice and government should be made more accountable to 

the people.  This can be achieved through promotion of freedom of the press and association in the 

country. 

vii) Good governance also requires effective and efficient utilization of the country resources through 

diversifying the economy. This will reduce the over-reliance of the economy on revenue from crude oil 

that has made the country to be susceptible to fluctuations that characterized prices of oil in the world 

market. 

 

Declaration  

 

Acknowledgment: We want to appreciate the effort of Mrs. Ibitomi Sarah Omoyemi for her assistance in the course 

of carrying out this research work, she made a useful suggestion on the path way for growth for this research work. 

Let me also appreciate my head of department, Prof. P.O Oladele for proper guidance in the course of carrying out 

this research work.  

 

Funding: This research work was funded by the researchers who participated in carrying out this research work. 

No external or internal funding was made available in the course of carrying out this research.  

 

Conflict of interest: In the course of carrying out this research work, ethical behaviours for research writing was 

put in place in order not to be diatracted from doing the right thing. We put on utmost good faith for successful 

research work.  

 

Authors contribution: Dr. Ibitomi Taiwo is the corresponding author for the journal, he coordinated the entire 

process of writing the manuscript from beginning to the end, he contributed in every section of this study through 

his expertise in research writing, also he interface with the journal publishing company in answering the questions 

raised with respect to the work. Dr. Micah Elton Ezekiel Mike wrote the literature review of this work and also 

assisted in the coordination of the work through his expertise in the areas of governance. Mr. Aiyedogbon Joseph 

is an expert in public governance in Nigeria, he contributed critically in the areas of introduction and literature 

review of this paper. Shittu Paulina Gaude-Jiwul contributed in the areas of methodology and data gathering for 

this study. Lawrence Olorunfemi is an expert in data analysis, he collected the data with Dr. Ibitomi Taiwo for the 

study and also run the analysis for the work.   

      

Data availability:  N/A 

 



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