Hrev_master [Healthcare in Low-resource Settings 2023; 11:11359] [page 73] Projected shortfall of 10 million healthcare workers by 2030: implications for low- and middle-income countries and the way forward Bashar Haruna Gulumbe,1 Nazeef Idris Usman2 1Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Science, Federal University Birnin-Kebbi, Kebbi State; 2Department of Microbiology, Bauchi State University, Gadau, Bauchi State, Nigeria Dear Editor, The global healthcare landscape is fac- ing an impending crisis, with a projected shortfall of 10 million healthcare workers by 2030 worldwide.1 This alarming fore- cast, declared by the World Health Organization (WHO)’s Director-General during the 5th Global Forum on Human Resources for Health on 3 April 2023,1 poses a significant challenge to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the impact of this deficit is expected to be disproportionately severe. Notably, this pro- jection represents an increase compared to the WHO’s estimate of a 7 million deficit made a exactly decade earlier,2 further underscoring the urgency and magnitude of the issue at hand. According to a study conducted by Naicker et al.2 in 2016, the degree of short- age of medical personnel in 47 sub-Saharan African countries, for example, is striking with the shortfall of doctors and nurses amounting to 2.4 million. Similarly, in a recent study, Ikhurionan et al.3 reported that with a deficit of 6.9 million and 4.2 million, respectively, South-East Asia and Africa have the largest shortfall of healthcare workers. This situation is particularly dire in remote communities where some villages have no access to trained healthcare profes- sionals. The shortage is driven by a com- plex interplay of factors, including rapid population growth, ageing societies, insuffi- cient investment in health workforce devel- opment, inadequate working conditions, and the migration of skilled health profes- sionals to high-income countries.2–4 The increasing shortage of healthcare workers LMICs is poised to have profound and far-reaching consequences. One such implication is the increased burden on exist- ing healthcare professionals.3,5 As the num- ber of available healthcare workers dwin- dles, the workload and pressure on those remaining in the field will escalate, poten- tially leading to burnout and a consequent decline in the quality of care provided.6 Furthermore, the shortages are likely to dis- proportionately impact rural and remote regions, exacerbating existing inequalities in access to healthcare services and further widening the gap between urban and rural areas.3,6 The ripple effects of this crisis extend beyond the immediate healthcare sector, with significant implications for health outcomes and economic develop- ment. A reduced capacity to deliver health- care services due to workforce shortages may contribute to increased morbidity and mortality rates in LMICs, as patients expe- rience delays or gaps in treatment.3,6 Additionally, the shortage of healthcare workers could have severe economic conse- quences, as a healthy workforce is indis- pensable for sustainable growth and pros- perity. In light of these challenges, it is cru- cial to address the healthcare worker crisis through comprehensive, collaborative strategies that emphasize innovation, tech- nological advancements, and global cooper- ation. The convergence of emerging tech- nologies and scientific advancements pre- sents a promising array of solutions to address the healthcare worker shortage in LMICs. Telemedicine and remote monitor- ing solutions, such as video consultations and remote diagnostic tools, can bridge the gap in healthcare accessibility, particularly in rural and remote areas.7 Stakeholders can help develop cutting- edge healthcare technologies and approach- es that address the particular problems encountered by LMICs by implementing these techniques, ensuring that new solu- tions are usable, affordable, and scalable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning applications in healthcare can enhance the efficiency of healthcare delivery and allevi- ate the workload of healthcare profession- als. Furthermore, digital health training and education can expand the reach and accessi- bility of healthcare education, providing opportunities for individuals in LMICs to enter the profession and address workforce shortages. Similarly, to effectively tackle the healthcare worker shortage, a compre- hensive, global approach is essential. This approach should encompass strengthening public-private partnerships, promoting international collaboration, integrating technology into health systems, fostering a culture of innovation, and monitoring and evaluating implemented solutions. With this multifaceted strategy, it is possible to stim- ulate the creation of creative answers to the workforce crisis, thereby enhancing health- care delivery and results in LMICs. In conclusion, the projected healthcare worker shortage for 2030 poses a formidable challenge, especially for LMICs where the effects are expected to be the worst. A comprehensive, internationally coordinated strategy that makes use of new technology, encourages innovation, and develops cooperation between the public and private sectors as well as international organizations is needed to address this chal- lenge. Stakeholders may improve health outcomes and promote sustainable develop- ment in LMICs by embracing these ideas and working together to create resilient health systems and guarantee equitable access to healthcare. References 1. WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at 5th Global Forum on Human Resources for Health – 3 April 2023. 2023. Available from: https://www.who.int/director-general/ speeches/detail/who-director-general-s- opening-remarks-at-5th-global-forum- on-human-resources-for-health---3- april-2023 2. Naicker S, Eastwood JB, Plange-Rhule J, Tutt RC. Shortage of healthcare workers in sub-Saharan Africa: a Healthcare in Low-resource Settings 2023; volume 11:11359 Correspondence: Bashar Haruna Gulumbe, Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Science, Federal University Birnin-Kebbi, Kebbi State, Nigeria. E-mail: bashar.haruna@fubk.edu.ng Key words: healthcare workers deficit; low- and middle-income countries; rural and remote regions. Conflict of interest: the authors declare no potential conflict of interest, and all authors confirm accuracy. Received for publication: 5 April 2023. Accepted for publication: 4 August 2023. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (by-nc 4.0). ©Copyright: the Author(s), 2023 Licensee PAGEPress, Italy Healthcare in Low-resource Settings 2023; 11:11359 doi:10.4081/hls.2023.11359 Publisher's note: all claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affili- ated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guar- anteed or endorsed by the publisher. No n- co mm er cia l u se on ly [page 74] [Healthcare in Low-resource Settings 2023; 11:11359] nephrological perspective. Clin Nephrol 2010;74:S129-33. 3. Ikhurionan P, Kwarshak YK, Agho ET, et al. Understanding the trends, and drivers of emigration, migration inten- tion and non-migration of health work- ers from low-income and middle- income countries: protocol for a sys- tematic review. BMJ Open 2022;12:e068522. 4. Yakubu K, Blacklock C, Adebayo KO, et al. Social networks and skilled health worker migration in Nigeria: An ego network analysis. Int J Health Plann Manage 2023;38:457-472. 5. Darzi A, Evans T. The global shortage of health workers—an opportunity to transform care. Lancet 2016;388:2576– 2577. 6. Tsolekile LP, Abrahams-Gessel S, Puoane T. Healthcare Professional Shortage and Task-Shifting to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease: Implications for Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Curr Cardiol Rep 2015;17:115. 7. Kannampallil T, Ma J. Digital Translucence: Adapting Telemedicine Delivery Post-COVID-19. Telemed J E Health 2020;26:1120-22. Letter No n- co mm er cia l u se on ly