0frontmatterfin history of meteorology volume 5, 2009 samuel randalls guest editor james rodger fleming editor-in-chief history of meteorology is the peer-reviewed journal of the ichm © ichm 2009 issn 1555-5763 proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology introduction, call for papers, and style guide ii this page intentionally left blank history of meteorology 5 (2009) iii contents pages introduction, call for papers, and style guide iv-vi james beattie (new zealand) climate change, forest conservation and science: a case study of new zealand, 1860s-1920 1-18 j.m. vaquero, m.c. gallego and j.a. garcía (spain) a note on a possible optic-atmospheric phenomenon in the iberian peninsula in the 13th century 19-22 brant vogel (usa) bibliography of recent literature in the history of meteorology. twenty six years, 1983-2008 23-125 james fleming (usa) historical introduction (reprinted from the 1994 international bibliography of meteorology) 126-137 introduction, call for papers, and style guide iv introduction with history of meteorology reaching its fifth volume, this issue provides ample evidence of the value of having a journal specifically dedicated to the subject. offering opportunities for original full length research papers, short communications, bibliographic resources and historical reprints, history of meteorology provides an open access space for the dissemination of a wide variety of material. this issue opens with a paper by james beattie that provides a thoughtful examination of the relationships cited, theorized and critiqued between deforestation and climate. he expounds both the disputes over what would count as legitimate forest science and the way in which ideas circulated in new zealand between state, conservationist and international actors. a short communication from vaquero, gallego and garcía highlights the potential of examining local phenomena, such as the one they describe with the christian conquest of seville, with the aid of meteorological science as an explanatory tool. brant vogel’s systematic bibliography of published works in the history of meteorology and cognate disciplines from 1983-2008 provides an immensely valuable resource for both seasoned and new researchers in the field. the construction of this bibliography has taken considerable time and care, an accomplishment that will, i am sure, be received with much gratitude by all. complementing the bibliography, this issue also reprints a historical introduction by james fleming to the 1994 edition of the international bibliography of meteorology, started in 1872 by cleveland abbe and originally published in four volumes between 1889 and 1891. the essay deserves reprinting for a wider audience because of its explanation of the historical development of this bibliographic work in the u.s. army signal corps office. the ichm website (http://www.meteohistory.org) contains announcements for jobs, conferences and publications, and new members are welcome to join our pursuit of ‘scholarship and friendship’ in the history of meteorology, climatology, and related sciences. to give a flavour of the diversity of interests within the community, i would direct you to a volume edited by vladimir jankovic and christina barboza on ‘weather, local knowledge and everyday life: issues in integrated climate studies’ (published by mast in 2009). this collection of papers from participants at the 2008 conference in rio de janeiro include topics as diverse as avalanches in the late middle ages (rohr), the rio apa shipwreck in 1887 (barboza), television weather girls (turner), the outdoor garment industry (jankovic), climate engineers (fleming), cloud-spotters (anderson) and the bavarian foehn (lüdecke). knowing, interpreting and understanding weather includes, but also takes us beyond the realms of (what might be termed) scientific meteorology and our histories have done likewise. i am sure that 2010 will be another fruitful year for researchers in this field. in the wake of the various ‘scandals’ and debates afflicting contemporary climate change science at the end of 2009, the need for continuing constructive and intellectually engaging historical research on the climate and weather sciences has rarely been stronger. samuel randalls london history of meteorology 5 (2009) v history of meteorology call for papers papers on the history of meteorology, climatology, and related sciences are now being accepted for consideration in history of meteorology 6. articles should be based on original research and present a novel thesis. they must be engaging, clearly written, and fully documented, following the style guide below. all papers will be subject to peer review. authors are reminded that international and interdisciplinary perspectives are encouraged and articles should engage social, cultural, and/or intellectual themes and contexts. because this is an electronic journal, it is possible to publish color illustrations and experiment with alternative media such as audio and video files and databases. session conveners are invited to propose special sections or issues of the journal. history of meteorology has a stable url at http://meteohistory.org and has been assigned issn 1555-5763 by the u.s. library of congress. it is currently being indexed by two leading services: isis current bibliography of the history of science (from which citations are posted online on the rlg history of science and technology database) and meteorological and geoastrophysical abstracts. the submission deadline for volume six is october 1, 2010, but earlier notice is appreciated. queries or manuscripts should be directed to the editor-in-chief, jim fleming, e-mail jfleming@colby.edu introduction, call for papers, and style guide vi style guide manuscripts for history of meteorology are to be submitted electronically to the editor in ms word format (please ask in advance about other formats). before publication, authors must certify that their work is original and that all necessary permissions have been acquired. format paper size: u.s. letter margins: 1.0 inch on all sides headers and footers: 0.5 inch (left blank except for preliminary pagination) line spacing: double font: text: 12 point times new roman; captions: 11 point times new roman section headers: use of bold section headers is encouraged paper length: less than 10,000 words, including citations. ask if your manuscript is longer than this. figures and tables figures must be provided as separate image files (jpeg or tiff) with a resolution of at least 150 dpi. both figures and tables must be mentioned in the text (e.g. fig. 1) before their appearance in the paper. figure captions appear below the figure in 11-point type with a hanging indent: fig. 1. caption descriptive of the image but does not repeat what was said in the text of the paper. image courtesy of (or by permission of) xxx. tables must be carefully formatted in advance by the author. titles appear above the table in 11point type: table 1. title of table (handing indent if it is a long title). citations citations may be either endnotes, numbered sequentially, or references (author date) listed alphabetically at the end of the paper. any major style, consistently applied, is acceptable. each citation must provide name of author/editor, full title of the work, place, publisher, date, and page references. titles of books and journals are italicized, not underlined. archival and manuscript material must contain a full description in the first citation. use of abbreviations (e.g. amer. j. sci.) is encouraged, as is the short reference format for subsequent citations of a text (e.g. petterssen, weather forecasting, 12.). endnotes are not meant to be discursive. microsoft word 03editorsintro.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 37 diversity in the global reconstruction and representation of weather and climate: east, south, west, north papers from the 2005 beijing international congress of history of science edited by louis k.mcnally iii and christian rohr symposium editors’ introduction in july 2005 the xxii nd international congress of history of science met in beijing, china, under the auspices of the international union of history and philosophy of science, division of history of science, with the general theme of “globalization and diversity: diffusion of science and technology throughout history.” as part of the congress, the international commission on history of meteorology sponsored a symposium convened by james fleming (usa), rudolph brádzil (czech republic), cornelia lüdecke (germany), and youngsin chun (republic of korea) entitled “diversity in the global reconstruction and representation of weather and climate: east, south, west, north.” thirteen papers were presented, and eight are published here, representing authors from seven different nations. the commission hopes that symposia like these will develop into a primary source for dissemination of research results for climate scientists who use historical data as their source for study, and for historians who look to extract climatological information from as-yet unused sources. whether the historical data used are logbooks from ships plying the english channel, reports of missionaries in the high arctic, records of bridge masters and tollhouse operators on the rivers of europe, diarists in north america and the low countries, byzantine church records, or the length of ancient european leg bones, they represent a uniquely human record of the weather, unlike any other proxies used for climatic reconstruction today. specific methodologies, from content analysis to cultural analysis, to forensic synoptic analysis are today converging to allow researchers of these historic data an opportunity to unlock the secrets of the weather of the past, as well as acquiring insight into the life experience of the observers, without cultural bias. combined with modern-day computer modeling, we are now approaching a better understanding of both changes in climate and their effects on the human condition. a firmer foundation for forecasting future effects is developing from the use of historical records. without the interdisciplinary work done from this historical and very human point of view, the insights and results presented here would not be possible. without history, and the attention paid to it by both cultural and climate researchers, the emerging science of paleotempestology would not exist. without interdisciplinary work of the kind presented here, much insight and knowledge might remain within the purview of individual disciplines. symposium editors’ introduction 38 we encourage historians to realize the importance of any archive as a potential weather record, and suggest that they work together with climate researchers, using and refining the methodologies outlined herein, to bring this new interdisciplinary insight to the community at large. we hope also that work presented here will both generate interest among historians to develop further research, and encourage climate scientists to make use of the very valuable resource that historical records can now provide to them. key questions about climate change remain. we hope that the additional input gleaned from history will help with the answers. the papers are presented on the order of the centuries from which documentary evidence is garnered, beginning with ioannis telelis, whose data extend back to the 4th century c.e. adriaan de kraker uses data from the 14 th and 15 th centuries, christian rohr from the 15 th and 16 th centuries, jian liu, et al, from the 16 th to the 19 th centuries, louis mcnally from the late 18 th century, cornelia leudeke from the 18 th and 19 th centuries, dennis wheeler from the 18 th and 19 th centuries, and nikola koepke and joerg baten examine the last two millennia. ioannis telelis is a specialist on byzantine sources related to climate and weather. most of these sources are neglected in the well known “weather compilations” of hennig (1904), easton (1928) and weikinn (1958). the author’s two-volume collection from 2004 was able to fill this lacuna. most of his sources are narrative ones determined by social and religious preconceptions. the author did not make any systematic attempt to explore the working of weather phenomena. the structure of the meteorological information is discontinuous and heterogeneous. nevertheless, telelis provides a typological and geographical distribution of documentary paleoclimatic information derived from byzantine sources. he points to more work to be done, since detailed climatic fluctuations cannot be reconstructed on the basis of this type of meteorological data alone. adriaan de kraker focuses on the reconstruction of storms in belgium and in the southwestern part of the netherlands. his study is based on written archival sources from smaller towns situated near the north sea shore. the town accounts are quite homogeneous for the period between 1400 and 1625 and are therefore excellent long-time proxy data. in this way, a period of significant increasing storminess during the second half of the 16th century can be identified. the connection between a drop in temperature during the same period is, however, only a weak one. on the other hand, he is able to draw connections between storminess and annual summer temperature especially for the 15th century: there are far more storms in warm summers than in cold ones. christian rohr examines the reactions to floods of the people living close to the danube river and its catch area in austria between the 14 th and 17 th centuries. he uses a “mentality bound approach,” which asks about the perception, interpretation, management and cultural responses to floods. he tries to contextualize non-instrumental records on floods, such as the “millennium flood” of 1501, by reconstructing the “normal” floods as well. the accounts of the bridge master of wels provide detailed insights into the history of floods and their management during the 15 th and 16 th centuries. through the expenses for the craftsmen many more floods can be reconstructed than through annalistic or normative sources. the paper by jian liu, hans von storch, eduardo zorita, xing chen and sumin wang is somewhat experimental. they attempt to compare reconstructed decadal temperature series of eight regions in china to two multi-century computer simulations. the climate model for these simulations includes time variable volcanic aerosols, solar output and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. the period from the little ice age (1550-1850) to the end of the twentieth century always provides a “hockey-stick” pattern. from the beginning of the twentieth century history of meteorology 2 (2005) 39 onwards, the increase of temperatures is significant. what may be more important is the use of computer modelling in an attempt to match reconstructed records, as opposed to forecasting the trends. louis mcnally reconstructs the global weather of a single year by comparing proxy data from all over the world. he applies his “forensic synoptic analysis” technique to reconstruct the upper-air circulation of the year 1785. he identifies the upper flow over northeastern north america, and then collects data for north america, iceland and the arctic region, the atlantic ocean and europe, india, china, japan and the pacific ocean, and for the tropics and the southern hemisphere. the reconstruction is completed using these and other proxy studies and tracking the volcanic signal from contemporary eruptions. the results agree with a theory by lamb (1977) for the general circulation of the atmosphere at the beginning of the last ice age. he presumes a relatively cold flow over central and eastern north america for most of the year 1785, and a “short-circuit cross-polar flow” which infers a preferential displacement of the polar cell to a position over the north atlantic ocean. cornelia luedecke’s article leads us into the arctic climate of greenland. the moravians, a pre-reformation protestant group, later on called herrnhuter brüdergemeinde after a village in saxonia, settled down in greenland and moravia during the 18 th and 19 th centuries. they did not only try to convert the indigenous eskimo population, but also made very accurate observations of the weather. their records played a major role within the global meteorological network of the societas meteorologica palatina in mannheim (germany). at the end of the 1830’s, johann von lamont, an astronomer from the observatory of munich, received many of the greenland and labrador observational data. so, they survived in an institute of the technical university of munich at weihenstephan and will be digitized soon. dennis wheeler presents results from a recently completed cliwoc (climatological database for the world’s oceans) project funded by the european union. he uses logbooks for the reconstruction of daily oceanic weather. the earlier observations are non-instrumental and have to be translated into modern scales such as the beaufort wind force scale. the use of these sources is still in its infancy, although they provide a unique insight into the climate of past centuries. about 120,000 logbooks from 1680 to 1850 can be found in british archives alone. the cliwoc database extends this to a comparison of logbooks from different european countries. nikola koepke and joerg baten examine climate and economic history from an unusual point of view. koepke, originally trained as an archaeologist for early medieval burial places, argues that anthropometric indices are an important proxy variable, reflecting the climate and the quality and quantity of nutrition. the study uses recent estimates of human stature over the last two millennia in the west of central europe, in the european mediterranean and in north-east europe. through a comparison with estimates of temperature it becomes clear that the impact of temperature is economically, but not statistically significant. it is remarkable that after the high middle ages, when population density had increased to a previously unknown level, the european population became more vulnerable to climatic shocks. on the other hand, a lower population like during the migration period pessimum, provided a better nutritional status and an increased average height. the fact that documentary (and other) evidence is now being used in the reconstruction of weather, climate, and the human condition points the way to an exciting future for interdisciplinary and international collaboration and comparison. the ichm intends to play an important role in facilitating and communicating such efforts. symposium editors’ introduction 40 special thanks are due to roger williams, mark guishard and brian kolts, bermuda weather service; kirk maasch, university of maine—orono; and christine holden, university of southern maine. louis k. mcnally iii st. george’s, bermuda christian rohr salzburg, austria authors and titles of other symposium papers presented in beijing aryan f.v. van engelen (the netherlands), how weather and climate could be deduced from historical sources and how weather and climate could influence the course of history: a reconstruction for the low countries from ad 800 onwards. zhang de-er (china), variation of dry-wet climate and severe drought events as revealed in the climate records of china over the past 1000 years. youngsin chun (republic of korea), recovering the historical meaning of asian dust events (in korea). xing chen (china), hans von storch (germany), jian liu (china), eduardo zorita (germany), jingyun zheng (china), simulated and reconstructed temperature anomalies of eastern china for the last millennium. don garden (australia), droughts and flooding rains: understanding el niño and la niña in australia. microsoft word 12goodman.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 12. archives, libraries, and bibliography in the history of meteorology prior to 1900 roy e. goodman curator of printed materials american philosophical society library philadelphia, pa usa bibliographical tools and guides are important components for promoting research in the history of meteorology and related fields. the international commission on the history of meteorology (http://www.colby.edu/ichm), founded in 2001 in mexico city, hopes to assist scholars by noting materials in printed, manuscript, cartographic and electronic formats, international in scope, and culled from disciplines as diverse as medicine, geography, agriculture, economics, literature, art, and the popular press on its website. the citations below are meant to be the initial effort at presenting these resources. suggestions and additions are most welcomed, and can be sent to the ichm website. starting points “bibliography of bibliographies on meteorology,” by malcolm rigby and dorothy m. gropp. meteorological abstracts and bibliography 6 (1955): 82-118. —organizes in a systematic manner the most fruitful sources of references to literature on meteorology, climatology, and related fields. web resources in the history of geophysics, compiled for the agu history of geophysics committee by shaun j. hardy & roy e. goodman. (http://www.ciw.edu/library/hgc/hgc_web_resources.htm). —provides general resource sites, biographies, history of organizations and institutions, subject histories, online journals and museums and online exhibitions. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 107 brush, stephen g. and helmut e. landsberg. the history of geophysics and meteorology, (bibliographies of the history of science and technology, v.7). new york & london, garland publishing, inc., 1985. —brings together a broad range of historical citations difficult to find in any one volume. fleming, james r. and roy e. goodman, ed. international bibliography of meteorology: from the beginning of printing to 1889. upland, pa, diane publishing company, 1994. 4 v. in 1. forward by e. philip krider. —a new edition of the bibliography of meteorology, issued as a 4 volume set in 1889-1891. copies of the original edition are quite scarce and very fragile. included are 16,000 references on temperature, moisture, winds and storms. articles in each subject are arranged chronologically and in their original languages. there is a good table of contents and author index. this is the major bibliographic resource on the atmospheric sciences prior to the meteorological and geo-astrophysical abstracts that began publication in 1950. hellmann, gustav. repertorium der deutchen meteorologie. leistungen der deutchen in schriften, erfindungen und beobachtungen auf dem gebiete der meteorologie und des erdmagnetismus von den ältesten zeiten bis zum schlusse des jahres 1881. leipzig: w. engelmann, 1883. —repertory of german meteorology. achievements of germans in writings, inventions and observations in the sphere of meteorology and terrestrial magnetism from very ancient times up to the close of the year 1881. hellmann, gustav. geschichte des königlich preussischen meteorologischen instituts von seiner gründing im jahre 1847 bis zu seiner reorganisation im jahre 1885. berlin, 1887. hellmann, gustav, ed. neudrucke von schriften und karten über meteorologie und erdmagnetismus, nos. 1-15. berlin: a. asher & co., 1893-1904. reprinted in 4 volumes. nendeln, liechtenstein, kraus reprint, 3 vols., 1969. —contents: 1. reynman, leonhard. wetterbüchlein von wahrer erkenntniss des wetters, 1510. berlin, 1893. 56 p. 2. pascal, blaise. recit de la grande experience de l'équilibre des liqueurs. paris, 1648. berlin, 1893. 20 p. 3. howard, luke. on the modifications of clouds. london, 1803. berlin, 1893. 32 p. 4. die ältesten karten der isogonen, isoklinen, isodynamen, 1701, 1721, 1768, 1804, 1825, 1826. berlin, 1895. 24 p. 5. die bauern-praktik, 1508. berlin, 1896. 83 p. 6. hadley, george. concerning the cause of the general trade-winds. london, 1735. berlin, 1896. 21 p. 7. torricelli, evangelista. esperienza dell' argento vivo. berlin 1897. 15 p. archives, libraries and bibliography prior to 1900 108 8. meteorologische karten 1688, 1817, 1846, 1863, 1864. sechs tafeln in lichtdruck mit einer einleitung. berlin, 1897. 12 p., 6 charts. 9. gellibrand, henry. a discourse mathematical on the variation of the magneticall needle. london 1635. berlin, 1897. 22 p. 10. rara magnetica 1269-1599. berlin, 1898. 174 p. 11. ueber luftelektricität 1746-1753. berlin, 1898. 50 p. 12. wetterprognosen und wetterberichte des xv. und xvi. jahrhunderts. berlin, 1899. 184 p. 13. meteorologische beobachtungen vom xiv. bis xvii. jahrhundert. berlin, 1901. 212 p. 14. meteorologische optik 1000-1836... mit einer einleitung. berlin, 1902. 106 p. 15. denkmaler mittelalterlicher meteorologie. mit einer einleitung und einem anhang. berlin, 1904. 327 p. hellmann, gustav. beiträge zur geschichte der meteorologie, 3 v. veroffentlichungen des koniglich preussischen meteorologischen instituts, nr. 273, 296, 315. berlin: behrend, 1914, 1922. —contents: 1. bd. aus der blutezeit der astrometeorologie. (j. stofflers prognose für das jahr 1524). die ältesten instrumentellen meteorologischen beobachtungen in deutschland. die älteste gedruckte nordlichtbeschreibung. die theologischmeteorologische literatur. die vorlaufer der societas meteorologica palatina. 2. bd. entwicklungsgeschichte des meteorologischen lehrbuches. die witterungsangaben in den griechischen und lateinischen kalendern. die wettervorhersage im ausgehenden mittelalter, xxi. bis xv. jahrhundert. wetterpropheten des xix. und xx. jahrhunderts. kleine beitrage. 3. bd. entwicklungsgeschichte des klimatologischen lehrbuches. geschichte des hundert jahrigen kalenders. die entwicklung unserer kenntnisse vom nordlicht. die meteorologie in ausserdeutschen flugschriften und flugblattern. zur geschichte der meteorologischen instrumente u. beobachtungen. anhang: verzeichnis meiner 1883-1922 veroffentlichen arbeiten zur geschichte der meteorologie und des erdmagnetismus. hellmann, gustav. die entwicklung der meteorologischen beobachtungen in deutschland von den ersten anfangen bis zur einrichtung staatlicher beobachtungsnetze. berlin, 1926. —on meteorological observations. from abhandlungen der preussischen akademie der wissenschaften. jahrg. 1926. physikalisch-mathematische classe, nr. 1. hellmann, gustav. die entwicklung der meteorologischen beobachtungen bis zum ende des xviii jahrhunderts. berlin, 1927. 48 p. —on the history of meteorological observations. from abhandlungen der preussischen akademie der wissenschaften. jahrg. 1927. physikalischmathematische classe, nr. 1. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 109 reuss, jeremias david. repertorium commentationum a societatibus litterariis editarium…gottingae, henricum dieterich, 1801-21. 16 v. reprinted new york, b. franklin, 1961. —valuable index to the publications of learned societies of various countries from the time of the founding of each society to 1800. royal society of london. catalogue of scientific papers, 1800-1900. london, clay, 1867-1902; cambridge, university press, 1914-25. 19 v. —author index, for the entire 19th century, to 1,555 periodicals in various languages including the transactions of the european academies and other learned societies. schneider-carius, karl. weather science, weather research: history of their problems and findings from documents during three thousand years. munich, 1955. translated from german, and published for noaa and nsf. new delhi: indian national scientific documentation centre, 1975. 554p. —a valuable but hard to find compilation, this source book documents meteorological problems from the ancient world to the early twentieth century. extensive quotes from original sources are provided, including aristotle, bacon, boyle, hadley, dalton, margules, and many others. the volume ends with a topical bibliography of over eighty pages, and a thirty-two page biographical index. area resources asociacion ecologica “eterna primavera”. datos meteorologicos en centroamerica y mexico:aspectos historicos y cienificos durante la segunda mitad del siglo xix y su aplicabilidad al cambio climatico. ciudad de guatemala, guatemala, c.a. forthcoming. —meteorological data for central america and mexico during the second half of the 19th century. e-mail: eterna_primavera@hotmail.com climatic research unit, university of east anglia. global land and marine surface temperature from 1856 to 1999. (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/) —the time series shows the combined record. compiled jointly by the climate research unit, uea and the uk met. office history of meteorology in india. (http://www.imd.ernet.in/doc/history/history.htm). —site of the india meteorological department. royal meteorological society (great britain). history of meteorology and physical oceanography special is t group. ( h t t p : / / w w w . r o y a l m e t soc.org.uk/hisgroup.html). —information on activities, publications, library resources, and profiles of notable meteorologists. archives, libraries and bibliography prior to 1900 110 congresses & conferences fassig, oliver l., ed. report of the international meteorological congress, held at chicago, ill., august 21-24, 1893. washington, d.c., u.s. department of agriculture, weather bureau, 1894. (bulletin 11) —an important overview on the development of meteorology throughout the world, as well as, historical bibliographical essays. second international climate and history conference. climatic research unit, norwich, u.k. 7-11 sept. 1998. (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/conf/sicch/) —the first conference held in norwich in 1979, brought together, for the first time, climate scientists, social and economic historians, and historical geographers. conference to explore the impact of climate on social and historical events in the united states. college of william & mary, williamsburg, va. 24-26 may, 2001. (http://www.wm.edu/cas/wmcar/confer/descr.htm) —leading goal was to open a dialogue on the complementary research of climatologists and historians. library & archival resources american institute of physics, center for history of physics. the international catalog of sources for history of physics and all ied sciences. (http://www.aip.org/history/icos.htm). —a catalog of information on the locations and contents of collections of archival materials, such as unpublished correspondence and institutional records, around the world. it is an ongoing project to gather and provide computer-readable, indexed information on holdings in libraries and other institutions, and to share the data with the major online catalog, the research libraries group (rlg), research libraries information network (rlin) and archives and manuscripts collections. for details on these resources see (http://www.rlg.org). chenoweth, michael. “historical marine data in american and uk archives, 1775-1900.” in international workshop on digitization and preparation of historical surface marine data and metadata, geneva, world meteorological organization, 1999, pp.57-60. (wmo/td-957, mmroa rep. 43). —strong on caribbean data euro-climhist. (http://www.cx.unibe.ch/hist/fru/fru-ech.htm) —this database set up by c. pfister at the institute of history, university of bern, switzerland, comprises 600,000 data for the period from ad 750 to the beginning of the period of instrumental networks. more than 40 countries are included. all weather observations are connected with carefully made bibliographical documentation including source texts and are bound to distinct observation places. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 111 fleming, james r. guide to historical resources in the atmospheric sciences: archives, manuscripts, and special collections in the washington, d.c. area. boulder, colorado, national center for atmospheric research climate and global dynamics division, 1989. (national center for atmospheric research technical notes 327a) —especially, useful for u.s. government repositories. revised edition available online. (http://www.colby.edu/sci.tech/97guide/). nebeker, fredrik. astronomy and the geophysical tradition in the united states in the nineteenth century: a guide to manuscript sources in the library of the american philosophical society. philadelphia, american philosophical society library, 1991. (publication 16) —numerous entries for meteorology, climatology & scientific instruments. the society’s printed and manuscript collections are listed on its website. (http://www.amphilsoc.org). pfister, christian, et al. geografia d’europa: textos de suport. documentary evidence on climate in sixteenth-century europe. (http://www.ub.es/medame/climaxvi.html) —the known documentary evidence from six european countries, switzerland, germany, the czech republic, ancient hungary, italy and spain is presented and classified. see euro-climhist site for additional resources that pfister and his institute of history, university of bern, switzerland have gathered on climate data. meteorology & agriculture baron, w.r. “retrieving climate history: a bibliography”, agricultural history, 3 (1989), 2: 7-35. —thorough overview of printed materials, international in scope. one of 19 articles from a symposium issue on climate, agriculture, and history. weather events in the press earle, w.h., ed. niles’ register: cumulative index, 1811-1849. malvern, pa., accessible archives, inc. 1990. —cd-rom edition of the printed volumes of niles’ which provides international coverage on the impact of weather events. articles are in english and extracted from newspapers, government reports and periodicals. pennsylvania gazette, 1728-1800. malvern, pa, accessible archives, inc, 1995. (http://www.accessible.com). —cd-rom full text of the most important 18th century north american newspaper. during and after benjamin franklin’s ownership of the paper, weather events are given much coverage. this data is also available online by subscription. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 123 east meets west: meteorological observations of the moravians in greenland and labrador since the 18 th century cornelia lüdecke centre for the history of science, mathematics and technology, university of hamburg, hamburg, germany introduction in the early 18 th century protestants were still not tolerated in many parts of europe, where mostly catholics were living. due to suppressions by the catholics in bohemia, a country of the hapsburgs (today: czech republic), one of the few pre-reformation protestant sects, the moravians, had to migrate westward 1 . finally they were given refuge by count nikolaus ludwig graf von zinzendorf (1700-1760) on his estate at berthelsdorf in oberlausitz (saxonia, germany) close to the boarder of bohemia. a new village with the name herrnhut developed in the neighborhood in 1722. here a “renewed” moravian church, the “herrnhuter brüdergemeine,” was founded under zinzendorf’s pietistic influence in 1727, which represented modest christianity. in 1732 the moravians turned west to st. thomas, one of the virgin islands, to start their missionary work. this paper focuses on their settlement and observations in the northern lands of greenland and labrador. the moravians in greenland and in labrador at the time, when vitus bering (1681-1741) was organizing the “great nordic expedition” (1734-1743) to kamchatka, the moravians moved to greenland as the next region with local non-european inhabitants. here the norwegian hans egede (1686-1758) had been the first lutheran pastor to establish the only mission at godthaab in 1721. close to his place matthias stach (1711-1787) set up the first moravian mission, neu-herrnhut, in 1733. during the following decades, further missions were established along the coastline of southwest greenland in lichtenfels, lichtenau, friedrichsthal, umanak, and finally in idlorpait (tables 1a, b). when egede left godthaab in 1737, the moravians also continued his mission. in 1771 the moravians turned further west to labrador and founded missions on the east coast in nain, okak, hoffenthal, hebron, zoar, rama, makkovik, and killinek (figure 1). some of these missions are still in use. when the first three missions had been established, either in greenland or in labrador, the expansion stopped for the next 50 and 46 years respectively. east meets west 124 table 1a. moravian missions founded at greenland and labrador in the 18 th century 2 . period of function greenland labrador 1733 1900 neu-herrnhut 1748 1900 lichtenfels 1771 present nain 1774 1900 lichtenau 1776 1919 okak 1782 present hoffenthal table 1b. moravian missions founded at greenland and labrador in the 19 th and 20 th century 3 . period of function greenland labrador 1824 1900 friedrichsthal 1828 1959 hebron 1861 1900 umanak 1864 1900 idlorpait 1865 1894 zoar 1871 1907 rama 1896 – present makkovik 1904 1924 killinek fig. 1. map of moravian mission stations in greenland (left) and labrador (right) 4 . one of the main tasks of the moravians had been to translate their christian concepts into the local eskimo language5 and, especially in labrador, to run a trading store, a workshop and a smithy 6 . history of meteorology 2 (2005) 125 west goes east besides their missionary duties the moravians not only sent home mission reports each year, but also descriptions of the eskimo culture illustrated by sketches and pictures. being interested in the natural sciences, they also observed the weather and made meteorological measurements at each mission, informing the following missionaries about the unknown subpolar climate 7 . when they returned to their home in saxonia, they very often brought ethnological souvenirs with them, which filled the attics of their houses, until the herrnhuter ethnological museum was founded in 1878. one of the most interesting items on display is a traditional dog sledge pulled by stuffed dogs from labrador. david cranz (1723-1777) was the first to publish detailed information of the early missionary period in greenland in the report of his inspection of the missions neu-herrnhut and lichtenfels (1761-1762) 8 . besides very interesting ethnological descriptions he also gave insight into the climate of greenland. his book received great attention in europe and was translated into dutch, english and swedish, while a second german edition was already printed in 1770. since the establishment of the missions in labrador, extracts of weather observations made by christoph brasen (1738-1774) from october 1771-october 1772, samuel liebisch (1739-1809) from september 1775-1781 and 1781-1782 and by his successor from the year 1783 were published in the german weekly newspaper wittenberger wochenblatt between 1774 and 1786 9 . it had been a big success for the organizer of the first modern and global meteorological network of the societas meteorologica palatina, johann jacob hemmer (1733-1790), to receive some data from godthaab in greenland. pastor andrea ginge had send his observations made from october 1786-june 1787 with the ship going to europe in july. the data were printed in extenso in the ephemerides of the societas meteorologica palatina in mannheim (germany) 10 . close to the sunspot maximum in 1788, they showed a remarkable amount of 54 days with observations of northern lights during from october to april. another survey of meteorological data from greenland and labrador of the period 1790-1801 was made available for the public in voigt’s magazin für naturkunde 11 . professor friedrich kämtz (1801-1867) from the university in halle (germany) included monthly mean values for nain and okak (1777-1780) in the climatological description of northern latitudes in first modern textbook on meteorology 12 . later, data from nain were used very often to show the temperature difference at the same latitude between north america and europe 13 . this example contradicted tobias mayer’s (1723-1762) theory of the solar climate, which was only dependent of the position of the sun 14 . mayer’s theory was published posthumously in 1775 and gave rise to many investigations. lamont’s data collection at the end of the 1830’s, astronomer johann von lamont (1805-1879) from the observatory at munich (germany) had organized a meteorological network in bavaria, in which he also wanted to include stations of the moravian missions. by a mediator he received hand written copies of reports of the annual meteorological observations from greenland and labrador. from most missions he received data over many decades (table 2). east meets west 126 the data consisted mostly of pressure and temperature measurements, as well as wind directions and short descriptions of the weather, observed two or three times a day. together with the observations, some of lamont’s correspondences also survived in an institute of the technical university of munich at weihenstephan. an example of the measurements is given in figure 2. table 2. meteorological data from greenland and labrador collected by lamont 15 . period greenland labrador 1841-1865 nain 1842-48, 1856-66, 1871-72 hebron 1843-1844 godthaab 1843-1851 lichtenau 1843-60 / 1862-65 neu-herrnhut / umanak 1843-1866 okak 1846-1852 lichtenfels 1852-1872 hoffenthal fig. 2. meteorological observations from lichtenau (greenland), 1841-1842 16 . d.: date (14 july–2 august 1841), (12 october–1 november 1841), (11–31 january 1842) barometer: pressure in parisian feet thermometer: temperature in °r h. t. / temp.: highest temperature in °r n. t. / temp.: lowest temperature in °r wind: wind direction atmosphere: weather, e.g. dull, clear, cloudy, rain, snow history of meteorology 2 (2005) 127 lamont had a close look at the data and their accuracy. among his correspondence we even find calibration tables in °r for five thermometers send to the moravian stations in lichtenau, neu-herrnhut, hebron, hoffenthal, and nain. he published only mean or extreme values of temperature and pressure of these five stations (september 1841-april 1842) and mean values of temperature as well as wind observations of friedrichsthal (october 1841-april 1842), neu-herrnhut (july 1842-june 1843), and hebron (september 1842-july 1843) in his annalen für meteorologie und erdmagnetismus in the early 1840s 17 . when adolphe quetelet (1796-1874) had introduced statistical methods in meteorology to investigate the periodicity of the phenomena 18 , lamont followed his ideas and investigated the implication of arithmetic means in meteorology 19 . he may have used the exotic data set from the sub-arctic as example to calculate monthly mean values of temperature and pressure 20 as well as counting the number of observations of different wind directions at all stations 21 . after these efforts, it is astonishing that he only published the actual monthly distribution of wind directions of labrador from 1866/1867 in the wochenbericht der kgl. sternwarte münchen 22 . besides, he did not give any comment or interpretation of the other data. they may have only served him as a case study for statistical analysis. in his paper on the arithmetic means he said that a mean value did not exist especially for clouds, wind power and direction as well as for precipitation 23 . he also argued that there was no real mean value for temperature and pressure, because both were strongly influenced by clouds, wind and other meteorological parameters. this could be clearly seen at the extreme values of pressure, which showed an unbalanced deviation from the mean value to the minimum, which was twice the deviation to the maximum. in conclusion lamont only admitted mean values for parameters that followed regular rules, but not for parameters that were dependent of other parameters. due to this he might have neglected the publication of mean values of temperature and pressure. further weather information from high latitudes in the 1850’s, many expeditions left england to search for john franklin’s (1786-1847) lost expedition to discover the northwest passage. one fascinating report of such a search expedition was written by johann august miertsching (1817-1875) describing the northwest passage from west to east on sea and on land (1850-1854). he had been asked to act as interpreter for the eskimos during sir robert john le mesurier mcclure’s (1807-1873) expedition aboard the investigator 24 . this offered a very good opportunity for the moravians to expand the knowledge of eskimo groups living further to the west. during his journey, miertsching not only wrote down the local positions, but also he included temperature data and general weather descriptions from the high arctic. mcclure’s expedition was the first to prove that the northwest passage theoretically existed, but due to the actual heavy ice conditions it could not be sailed by ship. after all, in the 18 th and 19 th century, only a few summarizing results of the early meteorological measurements from greenland and labrador were made available in various printed media for further scientific investigations. east meets west 128 first international polar year 1882-83 when the director of the deutsche seewarte (german naval observatory) at hamburg, georg von neumayer (1826-1909), organized the german participation in the international polar year (1882-83), he engaged dr. karl richard koch (1852-1924), privatdozent for physics at the university in freiburg, to be in charge of meteorological observations at the six moravian missions in labrador (nain, okak, hoffenthal, zoar, hebron, and rama). the naval observatory provided the instruments for this international co-operation. afterwards the meteorological data became part of the official results of the german expeditions during the polar year 25 . being very interested in connecting the european station networks with the polar stations of north america, climatologist eduard brückner (1862-1927), calculated daily mean values of the stations in labrador, which were published in his summary of the results in 1888 26 . these data of the east coast of north america described a cold climate with strong westerly storms (table 3). table 3. mean temperatures (°c) in labrador during the 1 st international polar year 1882/83 27 . sept. oct. nov. dec. jan. feb. mar. apr. may june july aug. year rama 0.2 -4,2 -10,4 -20,1 -22,9 -16,7 -7,9 1,3 5,5 7,9 7,3 hebron -0,2 -4,8 -10,1 -20,0 -23,8 -15,8 -8,1 0,5 6,3 8,8 7,3 okak 0,2 -5,5 -10,6 -21,4 -24,3 -15,9 -7,6 0,4 6,7 9,9 8,4 nain 7.7 0,9 -5,1 -11,1 -21,5 -23,6 -15,0 -7,4 1,2 7,1 10,0 7,9 -4,1 zoar 7.8 0,8 -5,4 -11,9 -22,7 -23,4 -15,4 -6,8 1,5 7,6 11,7 8,8 -4,0 hoffenthal 7,8 1,5 -4,0 -9,6 -21,8 -22,3 -14,1 -5,1 1,9 8,1 12,3 9,1 -3,0 further on, monthly mean values of temperature measurements at labrador over a period of seven to fourteen years, between 1882 and 1896, were made available by julius hann (18391921), professor for meteorology in vienna (austria), together with sinus equations of the annual course for two regions around 56 °n and 58°n and the mean value (table 4) 28 . history of meteorology 2 (2005) 129 table 4. temperature conditions on the east coast of labrador 29 . hann’s evaluation showed that the climate of the northern stations okak, hebron, and rama was more moderate and maritime than the climate of the southern stations. not until 1937 was the moravian data set used at the deutsche seewarte to calculate monthly mean values for a climatology of labrador (table 5) 30 . absolute and mean extreme values were also added. we do not know whether this was already done with respect to war preparations, which were already under way within the first four years plan. table 5. period of meteorological measurements (temperature, pressure, wind and precipitation) at moravian missions in labrador 31 . east meets west 130 second international polar year 1932-33 when the 2 nd international polar year took place from 1932 to 1933, germany could not establish a new polar station due to the economy after world war i. instead, routine measurements were expanded at home. at least the sub-polar stations makkovik and nain in labrador participated. the results of the measurements were published with a delay during the first year of world war ii 32 . one of the most interesting observations was made on 9 february 1933, when the passage of a cyclone showed a pressure fall of about 68 hpa 33 . meteorological parameters between 7 th and 11 th february were shown in a diagram (see figure 5). this labrador storm showed features similar to the cyclone of 2 march 1992, with a pressure fall of 65 hpa, which was observed by modern means of satellite and aircraft (figure 6). fig. 5. labrador storm observed at makkovik during the 2 nd international polar year on 9 february 1933 34 . fig. 6. enhanced infrared imagery of the labrador cyclone on 2 march 1992, 17:11 utc 35 importance of the moravian data set for today in the meantime, many networks were established for different meteorological investigations. the network of the arctic precipitation data archive collects data in a large square reaching from canada to siberia 36 . in 1900 less that 400 meteorological stations were counted in the area of interest. due to the cold war and the growing strategic importance of the arctic, the number of arctic stations rose to about 5000 in 1987. after the fall of communism, the number declined rapidly to about 2000 in the year 2000. until today, the moravian stations are not included in the network. now the historical data, which are kept at the chair of ecoclimatology at the technical university of munich, are going to be scanned and to be made available for the national climate data centre in asheville (usa). they will expand the knowledge of the weather of the past for modeling the climate change of the future. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 131 endnotes 1 willi driesen, die herrnhuter brüdergemeine in grönland (leverkusen, philathelia, 1986), 39 p.; j. k. hiller, “the moravians in labrador, 1771-1805,” the polar record 15 (1971): 839-54, 835. 2 after hartmut beck (ed.), wege in die welt. reiseberichte aus 250 jahre brüdermission (erlangen, ev.-luth. mission, 1992), 300 p., 288, 291. 3 ibid. 4 ibid. 5 samuel kleinschmidt, grammatik der grönländischen sprache mit theilweisem einschluss des labradordialects (berlin, reimers, 1851, 182 p.; 2 nd reprint hildesheim, olms, 1991). 6 hiller, “moravians,” 843, 846. 7 the meteorological data are included in the annual reports and are not kept in a special file on meteorological measurements at the archive of the brüderunität in herrnhut. 8 david cranz, historie von grönland enthaltend die beschreibung des landes und der einwohner u. insbesondere die geschichte der dortigen mission der evangelischen brüder zu neu-herrnhut und lichtenfels, 3 vols. (barby, heinrich detlef ebers, 1765), 1132 p. 9 anon., “auszüge aus den witterungsbeobachtungen auf der küste von labrador oktober 1771 – oktober 1772,” wittenberger wochenblatt vii (1774): 202; anon., “wetterbeobachtungen aus labrador sept. 1775-1781,” wittenberger wochenblatt xvi (1783): 281; anon., “wetterbeobachtungen aus labrador 1781-1782,” wittenberger wochenblatt xviii (1785): 129; anon., “wetterbeobachtungen aus labrador 1783,” wittenberger wochenblatt xix (1786): 153. 10 andreas ginge, “observationes gotthaabenenses,” ephemerides societatis meteorologicae palatinae. observationes anni 1787, 42pp, 54pp. 11 anon., “meteorologische beobachtungen in grönland und labrador ausgeführt von den böhmischen missionären (1790-1801),” voigt’s magazin für naturkunde ix (1805): 12 friedrich kämtz, lehrbuch der meteorologie, vol. 2 (halle, gebauersche buchhandlung, 1832), 88. 13 see for example julius hann, “resultate der meteorologischen beobachtungen an der küste von labrador, rigolet, hoffenthal,” meteorol. z. 13 (1896): 117-119. 14 karl schneider-carius, wetterkunde wetterforschung: geschichte ihrer probleme und erkenntnisse in dokumenten aus drei jahrtausenden (freiburg/münchen, karl alber, 1955), 99101. 15 grönland file and labrador file, archiv lehrstuhl für ökologie, tu münchen , weihenstephan. 16 original in grönland file, archiv lehrstuhl für ökologie, tu münchen , weihenstephan. 17 johann lamont, “meteorologische beobachtungen in labrador und grönland (18411842),” annal. f. meteorol. u. erdmag. iv (1842): 69-72; lamont, “meteorologische beobachtungen in labrador und grönland (1842-1843),” annal. f. meteorol. u. erdmag. viii, (1843): 185-191; lamont, “beobachtungen von nain und hebron 1841-1843,” annal. f. meteorol. u. erdmag. iv (1842-44): 69, vii, 185. 18 adolphe quetelet, “calcul des probalilités,” bull. acad. roy. buxelles 19 (1852). also see schneider-carius, wetterkunde, 171. east meets west 132 19 johann lamont, “über die bedeutung arithmetrischer mittelwerte in der meteorologie,” z. österreichischen gesellschaft f. meteorol. 2 (1867): 241-47. 20 lamont calculated all monthly temperature means, but only some monthly pressure means. 21 you see the results of his calculations written under the columns of the manuscripts. he summarized his results in extra tables with monthly mean values for temperature and the monthly distribution of wind direction (archiv lehrstuhl für ökologie, tu münchen , weihenstephan). 22 johann lamont, “windrichtungen von nain, hebron, lichtenfels und hoffenthal (juni 1866-aug. 1867),” wochenbericht der kgl. sternwarte münchen für april, nr. 146 (1868). 23 lamont, “bedeutung,” 246-247. 24 johann august miertsching, reise-tagebuch des missionars joh. aug. miertsching, welcher als dolmetscher die nordpol-expedition zur aufsuchung sir john franklins auf dem schiff investigator begleitete. in den jahren 1850 bis 1954. (gnadau, unitätsbuchhandlung, 1855), 196 p.; beck (ed.), wege in die welt, 102-133. 25 k.r. koch, “geschichte der supplementären expedition unter dr. k.r. koch nach labrador,” die internationale polarforschung 1882-1883. die beobachtungs-ergebnisse der deutschen stationen. band i. kingua-fjord und die meteorologischen stationen ii. ordnung in labrador: hebron, okak, nain, hoffenthal, rama, sowie die magnetischen observatorien in breslau und göttingen. georg neumayer und carl börgen, ed. (berlin, a. asher & co., 1886),1181. 26 eduard brückner, “resultate der meteorologischen beobachtungen der deutschen polarstationen 1882/83,” meteorol. z. 5 (1888) :245-59. 27 ibid., 256. 28 hann, “resultate,” 117-119; julius hann, “zum klima von labrador 1 and 2,” meteorol. z. 13 (1896): 359-61 and 420-423. an earlier paper published meteorological data from rama (1878-1879). see julius hann, “das klima des nordöstlichen nordamerika,” meteorol. z. 13 (1896): 70-71. 29 julius hann, “übersicht über die mittlere temperatur und den jährlichen wärmegang an der küste von labrador,” meteorol. z. 13 (1896): 422-23. 30 ludwig döll, “klima und wetter an der küste von labrador,” aus dem archiv der deutschen seewarte 57, 2 (1937): 5.. 31 ibid. 32 siegfried baumbach, “meteorologische beobachtungen in labrador,” aus dem archiv der deutschen seewarte und des marineobservatoriums 60, 8 (1940), 41 p. 33 ibid., figs. 2-5. 34 ibid., fig. 5. 35 zonghui huo, da-lin zhang and john gyakum, “the life cycles of the intense iop-14 storm during casp ii, part i, analysis and simulations,” atmosphere – ocean 34, 1 (1996): 5180. 36 personal communication with bruno rudolf, 2003. invisible atmospheric knowledge morgan, argument, authority and anxiety in the atmospheric sciences 14 argument, authority and anxiety in the atmospheric sciences ruth a. morgan monash university melbourne, australia in late july 2013, the city of manchester hosted the 24 th international congress of history of science, technology and medicine, in which nearly two thousand delegates participated in discussions regarding the theme ‘knowledge at work’. among them were twenty members of the international commission on the history of meteorology (ichm), who shared their research in a day-long symposium on the theme of ‘gaining it / losing it / regaining it (?): knowledge production in climate science – status anxiety and authority across disciplines’. the articles that feature in this volume are a selection of the exciting range of work presented there by scholars from australia, the americas and europe, on topics ranging from the geo-engineering of colonial northern african environments to the histories of sunlight and health. the theme of ‘gaining it / losing it / regaining it (?)’ emerged from the work of symposium co-convenor james r. fleming, who first shared the idea at the ichm conference on weather, local knowledge and everyday life in rio de janeiro, brazil in 2009. 1 his exploration of the concepts of status anxiety and authority in the climate sciences was especially timely as the so-called ‘climategate’ email hacking scandal unfolded later that year. after developing these ideas in relation to his research on climate change and climate control, fleming sought to encourage in manchester the closer examination of processes of ‘knowledge-making, loss and regaining of knowledge-use, and dissent and authority in climate science and, by comparison, in other discourse communities’. 2 although fleming, with vladimir jankovic, conceptualised the symposium in terms of the atmospheric sciences, as this volume shows, the themes and discussions that developed in manchester transcend the temporal, cultural and disciplinary boundaries of knowledge production. the author is deeply grateful to history of meteorology editor-in-chief, james rodger fleming, for his patience, guidance, and support in the production of this volume. 1 vladimir jankovic and christina barboza (eds), weather, local knowledge and everyday life: integrated climate studies, rio de janeiro, mast, 2009. 2 james r. fleming, ‘gaining it, losing it, regaining it? lessons from the history of climate change and climate control’, climate change in social sciences, national hellenic research foundation, athens, greece, january 2013; and james r. fleming, ‘s103: symposium abstract’, ichstm 2013, 2013, http://www.ichstm2013.com/programme/guide/s/s103.html http://www.ichstm2013.com/programme/guide/s/s103.html history of meteorology 6 (2014) 15 gaining it / losing it / regaining it (?): knowledge production in climate science in the wake of ‘climategate’, the less-than-impressive outcome of the copenhagen convention of 2009, the interacademy review of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), the upcoming fifth assessment report (ar5), the 2012 skirmish between climate activist peter h. gleick and the heartland institute, and the need to communicate scientific results to a sceptical general public, the manchester symposium offered the opportunity to examine ‘status anxiety’ in the field of climate science from historical and science studies perspectives in order to provide some perspective on the so-called ‘climate wars’. the notions of gaining knowledge and authority, losing them, and regaining them, reflect the complexities of knowledge production in climate science not only in recent decades, but which stretch back to antiquity. with researchers from the historical and social sciences, the manchester symposium produced a host of interdisciplinary discussions and debates about status anxiety and authority in climate science that feature in this volume. the volume contributors engage with three key themes. the first concerns the cacophony of voices that seek to dominate discussions about climate, climate science, climate policy, and the environmental conditions of the future. the next underlines the cultural and political tensions between universalising western climate science and local knowledge, between the global and the local. the final theme considers the extent to which definitions of climate as agency and as index are distinct or share common ground. the volume opens with two articles that consider the role of climate science in european encounters beyond europe. among the ‘tools of empire’ which supported the expansion of european imperialism in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were the sciences of exploration and development, including the nascent fields of meteorology. the understanding of unfamiliar climes would go some way to render ‘climates of conquest’ legible, predictable and productive for the imperial project. this volume opens with christian o’brien’s exploration of european attempts to decipher the tropical environments of northern australia and southeast asia from the sixteenth to the twentieth centuries. such european encounters with the wider world are also the subject of the work of james kneale and samuel randalls, who examine the ways in which british insurance companies evaluated risk during the victorian era to the end of the great war. the second part of the volume is concerned with the personalities, politics and knowledge production of the atmospheric sciences from the 1970s to the twenty-first century. gabriel henderson first considers the contrasting approaches of climate scientists to the communication of the risks of anthropogenic climate change in the 1970s. the state of climate science a decade later is the focus of david g. hirst’s study of the first assessment cycle of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc). in the final article of the volume, martin mahony considers the ways in which the ipcc has struggled to gain and maintain its scientific credibility in the face of numerous challenges. since the manchester symposium, there have been encouraging signs for the authority of climate science. in 2013, researchers showed that global warming had not ‘paused’ since 1998, nor is there a ‘consensus gap’ among climate scientists – in fact, there is an overwhelming morgan, argument, authority and anxiety in the atmospheric sciences 16 consensus among scientists that humans are responsible for global warming. 3 less encouraging was the national oceanic and atmospheric administration report that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had passed 400 parts per million (ppm) – far in excess of the recommended threshold of 350 ppm required in order to avoid irreversible climate change. 4 in face of such conditions, some scientists posture as planetary surgeons, capable of ‘fixing the sky’, while others hold out hope for a global agreement to curb climate change. 5 as 2014 looks set to be the hottest year on record, the importance of interdisciplinary conversations on the production and understanding of climate science cannot be underestimated. 3 john cook et al., ‘quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature’, environmental research letters, vol. 8, no. 2, 2013. 4 robert kunzig, ‘climate milestone: earth’s co2 level passes 400ppm’, national geographic, 9 may 2013. 5 james r. fleming, fixing the sky: the checkered history of weather and climate control, ny, columbia university press, 2010. microsoft word 08fleming.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 8. sverre petterssen, the bergen school, and the forecasts for d-day james r. fleming science, technology, and society program colby college waterville, maine, usa introduction the beginning of the end of world war two in europe depended on what were arguably the three most critical forecasts in history -two successful ones by the allies and one failure by the germans. on the allied side, six meteorologists working in three different teams were responsible for the d-day forecasts. the american team used an analogue method that compared the current weather with past conditions. their forecast was overly optimistic and would have resulted in disaster on june 5, 1944. the british admiralty and the british meteorological office urged delay. they were aided by the brilliant norwegian theoretician sverre petterssen (1898-1974), a giant in the field of weather analysis and forecasting and an international leader in meteorology during the mid-twentieth century. in the wee hours of june 5, beneath the storm-drenched skies of england, the allied forecasters advised general eisenhower that a very short break in the weather would allow the invasion to proceed. on tuesday, june 6, 1944, under barely tolerable conditions, the largest amphibious landing force ever assembled landed on the beaches of normandy. ironically the german meteorologists, aware of new storms moving in from the north atlantic, had decided that the weather would be much too bad to permit an invasion attempt. the germans were caught completely off guard. their high command had relaxed and many officers were on leave; their airplanes were grounded; their naval vessels absent. this paper focuses on petterssen’s early career and contributions to the war effort, highlighting his role as the only norwegian-trained meteorologist involved in the contentious forecasts for d-day. sverre petterssen and the forecasts for d-day 76 the forecasts for d-day three things are certain concerning the forecasts for d-day: 1) the invasion was postponed on june 5, 1944; 2) the invasion occurred under marginal weather conditions on june 6; and 3) the german meteorologists decided that the weather conditions were too poor to permit an invasion attempt. that is about all that is certain. two accounts of d-day have dominated the literature: 1) the heroic story, oftrepeated, in which the american team of irving krick and ben holzman found the “possible” weather that allowed the great invasion of europe to proceed; and 2) a standard bureaucratic account by james stagg published in 1971 that so infuriated sverre petterssen that he composed his own historical memoir with five chapters on overlord. the petterssen manuscript, written in english and published in norwegian translation in 1974, has now been published (2001) in an english-language edition that is becoming the third standard account.1 introducing petterssen sverre petterssen (1898-1974) came from the traditional fishing area of hadsel in northern norway and worked his way through school by working at the telegraph office and by means of a scholarship provided to military recruits. in 1923, as a student at oslo university, he attended a seminar led by tor bergeron and became an apprentice of the bergen school of meteorology founded by vilhelm and jacob bjerknes. bergeron’s analysis of the “ryder storm” of 1922 convinced petterssen to pursue a career in the new methods of weather analysis and forecasting (fig. 1). figure 1. ryder storm of 1922 proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 77 petterssen may have recalled the surprise development of this storm (b) when he was working on the forecast for d-day. in the next fifteen years petterssen served tours of duty as a forecaster in oslo, at the geophysical institute in tromsø, and as head of the bergen regional forecasting center from 1931 to 1939. during his first trip to the united states in 1935 he lectured on norwegian methods for the navy and at caltech.2 in 1939 he was appointed head of the meteorology department at massachusetts institute of technology where he wrote two well-received text books, weather analysis and forecasting (1940) and introduction to meteorology (1941).3 with war in europe and the nazis occupying norway, petterssen decided to leave mit to serve in meteorological office of the british air ministry as an advisor on loan from the norwegian air forces. sir nelson johnson, head of the british met office, appointed petterssen head of the upper air branch at dunstable with primary responsibility for preparing forecasts for bombing raids over germany. figure 2. sverre petterssen in norwegian uniform. sverre petterssen and the forecasts for d-day 78 during this period petterssen identified strong upper level winds later known as the jet stream and investigated linkages between upper level and surface conditions. in addition to many other duties, he prepared the long-range forecasts for the anzio landings in italy and was the only norwegian-trained meteorologist involved in the contentious forecasts for d-day. meteorological background to d-day although petterssen argued for a team of meteorologists working in the same place and cultivating personal contacts, the chain of command centered on stagg and yates at headquarters with three forecast centers communicating by scrambled telephone lines: widewing with the americans krick and holzman, admiralty with wolfe and hogben, and dunstable with douglas and petterssen. the weather for early june was exceptionally stormy, with conditions more like april as storm after storm crossed the atlantic. on june 4 storm f led to the postponement of d-day. on june 5 storm e stalled, leading to the invasion the following day. on june 6 by mid-day the weather conditions were more moderate (figure 3). figure 3. left: weather maps for 1, 2, 3 june 1944 at 1300 gmt. right: weather maps for 4 june 1300 gmt and 6 june 0600 gmt. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 79 d-day, the american story according to petterssen, “almost immediately after d-day, extravagant rumors reached washington and soon spread from coast to coast, mainly through newspapers and magazines”: though the frills varied within generous limits, the hard core of the rumors was unique: the british teams had failed in their predictions for d-day, and overlord had been saved by the u.s. army air corps team, using krick’s “analog” techniques. unlike old soldiers, these rumors never faded away. they are still active, and it stands to reason that, in the aggregate, their advertising value must have been considerable, especially for dr. krick, who soon became heavily engaged in a variety of commercial consultant services, including forecasting for different time spans.4 eleven years after overlord, krick wrote a popular account that emphasized the reticence of the british and the bravado of the americans: “the british, using shortrange methods, could see no weather coming up in the unstable atmospheric conditions of those touch-and-go days of the first week in june 1944, that would justify the risk of committing the great expedition to the stormy channel crossing”.5 as krick reminds us, “had not the skilled meteorologists using modern methods [i.e. the americans using analog techniques] correctly foreseen tiny chinks opening in the. . . weather of 1944 in western europe, almost as fleeting as glimpses of blue sky between storm clouds (and had not the military commanders taken their word), all the mighty preparations for d-day might have gone for naught, and the war in europe might have gone on for years”.6 krick uses the term “possible” several times in his account to emphasize the cando american spirit, of course in the aftermath of a successful invasion. “the americans, using analog forecast methods, saw “possible” weather. they also foresaw worsening weather for some weeks, if this present opportunity were passed up. general eisenhower probably has never known how bitter was the division and argument within the forecast team around june 1 to 4, as to whether the next few days would provide any weather opportunity at all for the invasion. but at last the decisive word was taken to him that the weather should be “possible”, and he ordered the great movement to start. . . a forecast ruling the weather “impossible” might have delayed for a year the ending of the war”.7 petterssen comments that krick made no reference to the british forecast that led to the postponement of d-day since the american forecast was overly optimistic and would have resulted in disaster on june 5, 1944.8 some twenty-five years after the fact the american account was codified and given quasi-official status by patrick hughes in a century of weather service in 1970, a celebratory volume produced by the u.s. department of commerce. by june 3 it was obvious the weather would not be good enough [to go on june 5], so eisenhower postponed the invasion until the 6th. on the evening of the 4th, the weathermen predicted relatively good weather for the 6th, and the signal was given to go. the next day, the last chance for cancellation, the american team still said go, one british team said no. the other british group was undecided; when it joined the americans, eisenhower was briefed and the invasion was on.9 sverre petterssen and the forecasts for d-day 80 by hughes’ account, the american team predicted not only the need for postponement but also the possible conditions on june 6. according to petterssen: in reading hughes’ story one is led to wonder whether there exists in the worthy science of topology a theorem that defines an upper limit to the amount of distortion at which identity is completely lost. the moral of hughes’ story might well be this: if you wish a rumor or a fantasy to be shrunk, don’t take it anywhere near washington, d.c.10 victor boesen’s account, storm: irving krick vs. the u. s. weather bureaucracy, published in 1978 and now available on the web takes the distortions to a new level. boesen paints the brits, led by petterssen as continually dark and pessimistic about the weather conditions for june 4-6 with krick and holzman continuing to offer an “optimistic picture”. nowhere does he indicate that june 5 would have been a disaster. for example, “at the war room briefing of 4:15 in the afternoon of june 3, krick presented the forecast for the next five days. it indicated operational weather for both sea and air forces, beginning after the next day. the british saw it exactly the other way around: weather unfit for either plane or ship throughout the same five days”. boesen depicts the americans stubbornly resisting pressures from the other forecasters to conform, “but it was no use. the conference forecast prevailed, and the invasion of normandy was canceled for both sunday and monday, june 4 and june 5” (boesen, ch. 7). in fact, the weather on june 4-5 included strong on-shore winds along the french coast that would have made landings impossible and continuous low cloud that would have hindered naval and aerial bombardment. boesen, however, ignores this issue and has krick and holzman emerge as heroes, with petterssen wavering and retreating from his pessimism, and the british forecasters ultimately punished for their reticence. as the attack unfolded on june 6 without interference from the weather, the generals congratulated colonels krick and holzman for sticking with their forecast despite the disagreement of the others…. with a hold on europe solidly established, general eisenhower removed the british from all forecasting functions and assigned this responsibility exclusively to the forecasters of the united states strategic air forces. he elevated krick to chief of his weather information section…. air marshal tedder of the royal air force. . . grew so confident of the pair's ability that he telephoned krick's headquarters for the weather each time he was in england, ready to fly back to france, ignoring the forecasts of his own british air ministry weathermen at raf stations”.11 a book published in 1986 by bates and fuller (bates was an american wave forecaster) fares no better. it too ignores the american optimism for june 5th and says that stagg himself made the critical decision to postpone the invasion. even for june 6 the authors say “widewing argued yes, dunstable was again pessimistic, and the admiralty thought it worth a chance. stagg and yates went with the majority vote”.12 according to petterssen, both the admiralty and dunstable were adamantly opposed to june 5 and widewing capitulated to the majority view.13 petterssen says that “with some justification i could have been criticized for not being sufficiently ‘gloomy,’ for the proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 81 weather and winds during the night of june 4th-5th turned out to be even more severe than douglas and i had predicted”.14 concerning the forecast for june 6 petterssen writes that “a sudden and major reorganization of the atmosphere over the atlantic sector” on june 4 “threw the forecasters into confusion” but by the end of the day the three teams “reached a state of harmony that had hardly ever been attained since february when conference discussions began”. from petterssen’s perspective the zonal flow in the upper atmosphere had changed into a wave-shaped pattern with rapidly growing amplitudes indicating that storm [l6] “cannot continue to move eastward as fast as i [had] predicted earlier”.15 the result was avoidance of disaster on june 5 and marginally acceptable weather conditions for a successful invasion on june 6 (see fig. 3, right). amazingly, irving krick maintained, as recently as 1984, that a successful invasion could have been launched on june 5.16 keith johannessen reminded krick that winds of force six to seven were measured in the channel that day, while landing craft would be swamped with winds of force four.17 the prevailing view is that of field marshall bernard montgomery who wrote in his memoirs that the postponement had saved the allies from a disaster.18 petterssen on stagg about a week after d-day, petterssen received a copy of a letter from stagg to sir nelson johnson praising the efforts of the dunstable forecasters and panning the other forecast centers for either actively opposing or only half-heartedly accepting the “best advice” given by petterssen and douglas. petterssen immediately wrote to johnson suggesting that it might not be wise to mention contributions by individuals, as stagg had done. rather, he thought it satisfactory for all concerned just to have it said that the meteorological profession had stood up to the test and rendered a signal service in the liberation of europe. this was petterssen’s “no-name policy” and there the matter stood for twenty-seven years—until stagg published his popular book.19 although petterssen was annoyed by the claims, distortions, and suppressions that appeared in print over the years in newspapers, magazines, and books, he felt that his noname policy was sound as long as no one descended to the level of personal derogations and unfavorable reflections on the profession of forecasters. what caused him — 30 years after overlord — to discard his policy was not the proverbial last straw: it was dr. stagg’s book, a book that led petterssen to compose his own historical memoir. referring to stagg, petterssen wrote: . . .when someone, however skilled in the arts and maneuvers of management, does not know the theories to be adapted, nor has experience that could be called upon for this purpose, had he possessed knowledge of the theories that might be applied, and when he, amongst other things, uses a popular book to question the scientific competence and professional skills of his helpers, then one arrives at the conclusion that the no-name policy has outlived its usefulness.20 sverre petterssen and the forecasts for d-day 82 conclusion the bergen school of meteorology as represented by sverre petterssen played a significant role in the d-day forecasts. while we will never know all the details, we have a new major source of information available to supplement other accounts.21 with increasing historical perspective, perhaps the best policy is a return to petterssen’s noname policy, with credit distributed to all involved for a job well-done, but then -how much fun would that be for historians? proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 83 endnotes 1 sverre petterssen, weathering the storm: sverre petterssen, the d-day forecast and the rise of modern meteorology, james rodger fleming, ed., boston, american meteorological society, 2001. petterssen’s manuscript “of storms and men” was written in english between 1972 and 1974. the norwegian edition of his memoir, kuling fra nord: en værvarslers erindringer, oslo, aschehoug, 1974, is not readily available in the united states. 2 [sverre petterssen], notes on dr. sverre pettersen's [!] lectures on synoptic meteorology. delivered at the aerological officers school, norfolk, va. and san diego, calif., 1935, u.s. navy, bureau of aeronautics, 1936. 3 sverre petterssen, weather analysis and forecasting: a textbook on synoptic meteorology , new york, mcgraw-hill, 1940; and sverre petterssen, introduction to meteorology, new york, mcgraw-hill, 1941. 4 petterssen, weathering the storm, op. cit., pp. 250-51. 5 irving p. krick and roscoe fleming, sun, sea and sky: weather in our world and in our lives, philadelphia, j.b. lippincott, 1954, p. 181. 6 ibid., p. 180. 7 ibid., 181. 8 petterssen, weathering the storm, op. cit., p. 253. 9 patrick hughes, a century of weather service: a history of the birth and growth of the national weather service, 1870-1970, new york, gordon and breach, 1970, p. 89. 10 petterssen, weathering the storm, op. cit., pp. 253-54. 11 victor boesen, storm: irving krick vs. the u. s. weather bureaucracy, new york, putnam, 1978. web edition http://www.weathersage.com/texts/boesen/ (july 7, 2001), ch. 7. 12 charles c. bates and john f. fuller, america's weather warriors, 1814-1985, college station, texas a&m university press, 1986, p. 94. 13 petterssen, weathering the storm, op. cit., pp. 253-54 242-43. 14 ibid., p. 234. 15 ibid., pp. 243-44. 16 irving p. krick, “role of caltech meteorology in the d-day forecast”. pp. 24-26 in some meteorological aspects of the d-day invasion of europe, 6 june 1944, roger h. shaw and william innes, ed., boston, american meteorological society, 1984. 17 “panel discussion” moderated by roger shaw. pp. 106-10 in some meteorological aspects of the d-day invasion of europe, 6 june 1944, op. cit.. 18 bernard law montgomery, the memoirs of field-marshal the viscount montgomery of alamein, cleveland, oh, world, 1958. 19 j.m. stagg, forecast for overlord, june 6, 1944, london, ian allan, 1971. 20 petterssen, weathering the storm, op. cit., p. 255. 21 petterssen, weathering the storm, op. cit. cf. german weather service group. “weather maps and weather summaries by the german weather service group, 2 june 1944 through 6 june 1944”. appendix a, pp. 111-31 in some meteorological aspects of the d-day invasion of europe, 6 june 1944, op. cit.; j.m. stagg, “report on the meteorological implications in the selection of the day for the allied invasion of france, june 1944. supreme headquarters allied expeditionary force, 22 june 1944”. typescript reproduced as appendix b, pp. 132 in loc. cit. microsoft word 04telelis.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 41 historical-climatological information from the time of the byzantine empire (4 th -15 th centuries ad) ioannis g. telelis centre for the research of greek and latin literature, academy of athens, greece among the sources for natural climate variability in the past, modern paleoclimatic research is obliged to pay attention to non-instrumental man-made paleoclimatic evidence, as well as to proxy evidence obtained from natural archives. the role and the value of documentary paleoclimatic data derived from historical texts of pre-instrumental era have been emphasized during the last three decades.1 direct and indirect observations of meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation, snow-cover, cloudiness, wind etc.) in terms of narrative descriptions and/or early instrumental measurements are being systematically surveyed and analyzed. studies have been produced that exploit a wide range of documentary sources of the european middle ages in the field of historical climatology. the recent developments in this discipline have pointed out the need of temporal and geographical expansion of the documentary paleoclimatic research.2 the literary paleoclimatic material built in byzantine historical texts (written in greek language) remained until recently unexploited -though not neglectedas fieldwork for paleoclimatic research. the well known “weather compilations” of rudolf hennig [1904], cornelis easton [1928] and kurt weikinn [1958],3 where extreme weather events from the antiquity through the early 20th century are catalogued, have included citations of accounts derived from the ancient greek literature, as well as from some scattered byzantine sources. nevertheless, this material, derived from the greek literary tradition, is far from systematic and complete. it is obvious that the geographical focus of those authors was the medieval northern, western and central europe. as a consequence, the byzantine historical sources had not been investigated so far from a historical-climatological point of view.4 documentary sources of the byzantine period were neglected by the researchers of historical climatology. consequently, a considerable amount of documentary paleoclimatic data relevant to the late holocene climate history of the eastern mediterranean and the middle east was neglected from the interdisciplinary paleoclimate research.5 the idea of reconstructing the climate history of byzantium has attracted the interest of specialists in byzantine history as early as in the 1980s. recently, the climate history of the byzantine empire (ad 324-1453) has become a topic of modern historical research.6 byzantine empire 42 the bulk of documentary weather and climate information concerning the above mentioned geographical, chronological and cultural framework is contained mainly in the byzantine narrative texts. such texts are dispersed in numerous manuscripts kept in libraries all over the world. for the needs of this research i drew on texts that have been published in current critical editions.7 a selection of sources based upon qualitative philological criteria was necessary so that the possibility of uncovering as much as possible meteorological text passages was the higher. for the purpose of this research the most informative genres of the byzantine narrative sources were surveyed: i. historians ii. chronographers who wrote universal chronicles starting from the creation of the world up to their day. iii. church historians. iv. the biographers who compiled saints' lives (vitae sanctorum) of the byzantine church. the contribution of each genre of sources to the obtained paleoclimatic evidence is not the same. the role of the chronographic sources was decisive for the documentation of the research. more than the half of the almost 1083 collected meteorological text passages belongs to the chronography (58%), while 19% to actual historical writers, 16% to saints’ lives and only 7% to church historians. the documentation for the period ad 300 to 1500 is not uniform. the number of sources that provide meteorological text passages is higher for the early byzantine period (4th-6th centuries) because of the existence of a flourishing late roman historiographical tradition and due to the composition of early ecclesiastical texts. the 8th century is a period of a well know gap in literary tradition. the revival of the 9th-11th centuries is attributed to the compilation of universal chronicles and to the systematization of the production of saints’ lives. during the later byzantine era (12th-15th) lengthy works in historiography were written.8 the researcher who attempts to reconstruct the climate history of the eastern mediterranean and the middle east on the basis of documentary evidence derived from byzantine sources should be familiar with certain methodologies of historical research. several chronological styles were in use during the byzantine period. the most common was the “indiction style,” in which the new year began at september 1st. most sources provide just one year to date to events. then it must be decided from the context or from other sources, whether the “old” or the “new” year is meant.9 the form of information is mainly narrative. the dominant mode in which the byzantine authors used to incorporate paleoclimatic information in the sources is that of mentioning the phenomena by the use of qualitative terms (e.g. “winter severe,” “cold harsh” etc.). numerical documentary proxy data (e.g. dates on which the harvest was opened, volume of grape harvest etc.) are absent, but there are cases in some narrative reports where some numerical data are contained (e.g. “it rained for 5 days”). the authors were not always contemporary to the events they described. for the byzantine period we have to deal with meteorological evidence that is not strictly contemporary in the sense that the events were recorded during or shortly after their occurrence. most of the surviving reports may have been copied once or several times and, consequently, in some cases the year to which an event is attributed may be only approximately calculated. the meteorological observations are of sporadic and general character and in most cases contain chronological inaccuracies. in many cases the analysis cannot determine about the history of meteorology 2 (2005) 43 months of the year during which the occurrence of cold/hot or dry/wet took place. on the other hand, grape harvest dates or phenological observations are absent. in general, the approach of the byzantine man towards the natural phenomena was determined by social and religious preconceptions. for the chronographers meteorological phenomena were nothing more than curiosities or marvels that were mirroring the divine will. weather and climate were not approached from any proto-scientific point of view by the byzantine intellectuals (e.g. clergymen, early scientists), so they did not make any systematic attempts to explore the working of weather phenomena by compiling weather diaries or early instrumental measurements in order to make reliable weather predictions.10 as may be expected, the explicit weather observations are scanty. references to sunny or cloudy days are extremely sparse. information on precipitation, severe heat, cold (not to speak of ‘normal’ temperatures) or snow and ice cover –though existent– lose from their climatological value because of low chronological and geographical precision. generally speaking, the paleoclimatologist is obliged to extrapolate climatic fluctuations from crude documentary reports about extreme events. but, despite these shortcomings the task of uncovering and analyzing all available meteorological evidence concealed in the byzantine documentary sources was worth undertaking. documentary paleoclimatic information derived from the byzantine texts can be classified into three categories following the meteorological data that they include:11 (i.) meteorological information about phenomena of long duration (weeks, months, years): e.g. severe winters, droughts, continuous rainfalls etc. this type of record is the most comprehensive in paleoclimatic information and allows for further interpretation; (ii.) meteorological information about meteorological phenomena of short duration (e.g. gales, hailfalls, blow of winds etc.); (iii.) information about flood events of unspecified cause / river’s nile flood anomalies. byzantine empire 44 table 1. distribution of documentary paleoclimatic information derived from byzantine sources (ad 300-1500) the thorough study of the byzantine documentary sources from a paleoclimatological point of view brought a relatively low amount of meteorological text passages in comparison with the total textual production of the byzantine era. a general overview of the different types of meteorological information and the frequency of their reference in the byzantine sources is shown in table i. the obtained paleoclimatic data apply within a large geographical area. this fact begs the problem of interpolation in space and reduces the reliability of the estimates, in particular for the variables of temperature and precipitation. a realistic estimate of these two significant meteorological variables on the basis of the obtained documentary data could not be based on the widely accepted classification of documentary paleoclimatic evidence according to the methodology of developing monthly and seasonal semi-quantitative thermal and wetness indices.12 thus, the collected historical-climatological information from the time of byzantine empire (4th-15th centuries ad) does not encourage the application of sophisticated statistical methods for ambitious paleoclimatic reconstructions. deduction of weighted or simple thermal/wetness monthly indices and summation of them in seasonal or annual scale is not feasible. this assumption has forced towards the adoption of a simple statistical method for interpreting the obtained paleoclimatic data. the use of an empirical “impressionistic” approach was necessary so that we could exploit the available data and might extract indications for possible climatic fluctuations, with -of courseall appropriate caution. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 45 fig. 1. geographical distribution of all meteorological text passages from byzantine documentary sources (ad 3001500). legend in alphabetical order: a.s.: aegean sea; ad.s.: adriatic sea; af.: africa; al.: albania; an.: anatolia (asia minor); ar.: arabia; arm.: armenia; as.c.: asia central; au.: austria; b.s.: black sea; bul.: bulgaria; con.: constantinople ; cy.: cyprus isl.; eg.: egypt; fr.: france; ger.: germany; gr.: greece; hu.: hungary; it.: italy; i.s.: ionian sea; leb.: lebanon; mac.: macedonia; mes.: mesopotamia; pal.: palestine; per.: persia; ro.: romania; rus.: russia; ser.: serbia; sp.: spain; syr.: syria; thr.: thrace. the scheme of data classification had to be adapted to the low density and quality of data. an index of two discrete levels (-1, +1) was attributed to the phenomena of long duration, irrespective of emphasis and intensity that was given by the authors. by the use of this simple index, decadal frequencies of the meteorological anomalies were converted into an ordinal scale. then, by calculating decennial moving averages, it was possible to process the data in a broad semi-quantitative way. another problem was that of the regional composition of the data. the investigation of the sources revealed that the obtained paleoclimatic records were referring to wide geographical areas around the mediterranean basin. the regional composition of all meteorological evidence recorded in the byzantine sources for the period ad 300-1500 is shown in figure 1. anatolia, constantinople (istanbul), mesopotamia and syria possess the lion’s share of the references. byzantine empire 46 fig. 2. periods of climatic anomaly for the period ad 300-1500 as projected in various mediterranean regions. the time periods are defined by the decennial frequencies occurrence of temperature (warm / cold) and rainfall (dry / wet) anomalies reported in the byzantine documentary sources (cf. figure 7). the map shows the location of climatic areas around the mediterranean sea according to the wladimir koeppen (1931) climate classification system as modified by glenn trewartha (1981). letter symbols in use: b= dry (arid and semi-arid) climates [bsk= temperate semi-arid; bshs= semi-arid; bwh= desert; bwk= temperate arid]. c= temperate/mesothermal climates [cfa= humid subtropical; cfb= maritime temperate; csa, csb = mediterranean]. d= continental/microthermal climates [dfa= hot summer continental; dfb= warm summer continental or hemiboreal]. on the other hand, paleoclimatic data should be treated in such a way, so that the high geographical dispersion might not prohibit the statistical elaboration. in order to include the parameter of climatic variability and consider the spatial variability of the evidence, we regrouped the data set on the basis of features taken from physical geography. we identified groups of data according to the wladimir’s köppen13 scheme of climatic regions as modified by glenn trewartha.14 this scheme, based on average monthly temperature and precipitation values of wide geographical regions, is the most widely used today for the classification of the climatic history of meteorology 2 (2005) 47 regions and respects spatial variability, which is the dominant characteristic of the mediterranean climate. with this procedure we handled our dispersed data on the basis of an analogously widerange geographical criterion and, then, by applying a broad semi-quantitative statistical analysis it was possible to trace the possibility of some climatic fluctuations for the period and area under discussion. fruit of this procedure was the construction of time-series of cold/hot and dry/wet decades applying to the wide geographical-climatic regions defined by trewartha. though the geographical scale in the statistical elaboration of the data is very wide, some observations for possible climatic trends can be adduced from figure 2: 1. temperate semi-arid [bsk], desert [bwh], and mediterranean [csa] climatic regions around the mediterranean sea concentrate the highest amount of documentary meteorological data derived from byzantine sources. data available for semi-arid [bshs], humid subtropical [cfa], maritime temperate [cfb, csb], hot summer continental [dfa] and warm summer continental or hemiboreal [dfb] regions cannot support any hypothesis because of the extremely low amount of the relevant evidence. 2. from available data for specific areas around the mediterranean sea we obtain the following trends: (i.) periods of higher frequency of cold episodes, i.e. with more than two cold events of long duration per decade– appear to be: • for the temperate semi-arid regions [bsk]: ad 580-690, 1030-1090, 11201200, 1230-1260; • for the mediterranean regions [csa]: ad 460-490, 790-850, 900-950, 9901020, 1030-1060, 1250-1300, 1320-1400, 1430-1450. (ii.) periods of higher frequency of hot episodes (more than two hot events of long duration per decade) appear to be: • for the mediterranean regions [csa]: ad 500-540. (iii.) periods of higher frequency of dry episodes (more than two dry events of long duration per decade) appear to be: • for the temperate semi-arid regions [bsk]: ad 360-390, 530-580, 690-720, 1090-1200; • for the desert region [bwh]: ad 320-340, 390-420, 450-480, 510-560, 600630, 740-770, 1040-1070, 1130-1200, 1290-1320; • for the mediterranean regions [csa]: ad 560-590, 740-790, 1020-1050, 10701110, 1140-1160. (iv.) periods of higher frequency of wet episodes (more than two wet events of long duration per decade) appear to be: • for the temperate semi-arid regions [bsk]: ad 660-700, 1030-1210; • for the desert region [bwh]: ad 540-580, 1160-1200; • for the mediterranean regions [csa]: ad 440-480, 960-1000, 1030-1070, 10901130, 1340-1390. byzantine empire 48 this short wandering throughout historical-climatological information from the time of byzantine empire (4th-15th centuries ad) may let us conclude that from a paleoclimatological point this type of evidence includes significant drawbacks. the relevant records often emphasize extreme conditions and they are biased by the selective perception of the observers. the structure of the meteorological information is discontinuous and heterogeneous and, consequently, it reduces the statistical analysis to simple techniques. despite the wealth of the byzantine literary tradition, documentary climate-related accounts are scanty. the paleoclimatologist cannot reconstruct detailed climatic fluctuations on the basis of this type of documentary meteorological data alone and faces difficulties in shaping long-term trends of temperature or precipitation. besides, he must be cautious in his interpretations as the data are characterized by chronological inaccuracy and geographical uncertainty. these characteristics force towards the modification of methodologies standardized by modern historical climatology, so that the researcher can drain as much as possible from the statistical information of the available data. whether the reconstructed fluctuations are an effect of a changing density of records rather than the product of changing climate parameters is a question that should remain open. in any case, further research might be carried out for the enrichment of the existing database by the investigation of unexploited genres of byzantine documentary sources. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 49 endnotes 1. the first systematic methodological observations about the use and the trustworthiness of documentary paleoclimatic evidence derived from european medieval and modern historical sources have been made by m. j. ingram, d. j. underhill, and g. farmer, “the use of documentary sources for the study of past climates,” in climate and history: studies in past climates and their impact on man, t. m. l. wigley, m. j. ingram, and g. farmer, eds., 1981, cambridge university press, cambridge, london, new york, new rochelle, melbourne, sydney, 180-213. 2. for a discussion of the state of the research in historical climatology and a detailed presentation of its development with special focus to methodological principles for data elaboration and interpretation of the european climate history one can now consult: r. brázdil, c. pfister, h. wanner, h. von storch, and j. luterbacher, 2005, “historical climatology in europe the state of the art,” climatic change, 70 (3): 363-430. 3. discussion about faults and drawbacks of these “weather compilations” was conduced since early 1980s. see ingram et al., op. cit. 4. this gap in the european historical climatology has been mentioned by c. pfister, 2002, “the potential of documentary data for the reconstruction of past climates in europe,” in discussion papers esf-olivar workshop, lammi, finland. 5. for the reasons of this “exclusion” of the paleoclimatic evidence built in the byzantine documentary sources from the focus of historical climatology, see i. telelis, 2000, “medieval warm period and the beginning of the little ice age in eastern mediterranean. an approach of physical and anthropogenic evidence,” in byzanz als raum. zu methoden und inhalten der historischen geographie des östlichen mittelmeerraumes, k. belke, f. hild, j. koder, and p. soustal, eds., kommission für die tabula imperii byzantini, wien, 223-243. 6. there exist some papers that concern either the analysis of meteorological events per se or the inclusion of climatic factors as agents of historical or cultural change. for a presentation of the bibliography on this topic and a synthesis that covers the entire byzantine period from ad 300 through 1500 from the point of view of historical climatology see i. telelis, 2004, meteorological phenomena and climate in byzantium, ponimata no. 5, academy of athens, (in greek with english summary), athens. 7. a good starting reference book about byzantine history is c. mango, 1980, byzantium the empire of new rome, weidenfeld and nicolson, london. for an overview of the existing editions of the byzantine sources see h. hunger, 1978, die hochsprachliche profane literatur der byzantiner. erster band, philosophie, rhetorik, epistolographie, geschichtsschreibung, geographie, byzantinisches handbuch v/1, beck verlag, münchen; j. karayannopoulos and g. weiß, 1982, quellenkunde zur geschichte von byzanz (324-1453), schriften zur geistesgeschichte des östlichen europa no. 14, harrassowitz, wiesbaden, 2 vols. 8. j. karayannopoulos, and g. weiß, op.cit. 9. for the dating styles during the byzantine period see f. dölger, 1949, das kaiserjahr der byzantiner, sitzungsberichte der bayerischen akademie der wissenschaften philosophischhistorische klasse no. 1, verlag der bayerischen akademie der wissenschaften, münchen. 10. analysis on the nature and form of meteorological references derived from the byzantine sources is now available in i. telelis, meteorological phenomena and climate in byzantium, op.cit. p. 780-782. byzantine empire 50 11. this classification is partly based on c. pfister, 1999, wetternachhersage. 500 jahre klimavariationen und naturkatastrophen (1496-1995), verlag paul haupt, bern, stuttgart, wien, 14-19. 12. r. brázdil, and o. kotyza, 1995, history of weather and climate in the czech lands i (period 1000-1500), zürcher geographische schriften no. 62, verlag paul haupt, zürich; a. ogilvie, and g. farmer, 1997, “documenting the medieval climate,” in climates of the british isles: present, past and future, k. hulme, and e. barrow, eds., routledge, london, new york, 112-133; c. pfister, j. luterbacher, g. schwarz-zanetti, and m. wegmann, 1998, “winter air temperature variations in western europe during the early and high middle ages (ad 7501300),” the holocene, 8: 535-552. 13. w. koeppen, 1931, klimakarte der erde. grundriss der klimakunde, de gruyter, berlin, leipzig, 2 nd edition. 14. g. t. trewartha, 1981, the earth's problem climates, university of wisconsin press, london, 2 nd edition. microsoft word 06luedecke.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 6. the first international polar year (1882-83): a big science experiment with small science equipment cornelia luedecke institute of history of science university of munich munich, germany introduction at the end of the german-french war (1870-71), the german empire consolidated all single big and small german states under its emperor wilhelm i (1797-1888). germany became one of the european great powers. economy, trade and traffic were expanding. this time of stabilisation was very favourable for further institutionalisation of meteorology in europe.1 economical interests demanded a well organised weather forecast, as meteorologists themselves had reached a new stage to develop their discipline towards a synoptic method. meteorology on the occasion of a meeting of the association of german naturalists and physicians at leipzig in 1872, an international meeting of meteorologists was held at the same place (14-16 august 1872) to prepare a congress at vienna in the following year. meteorologists were searching for possibilities of international exchange of new ideas, instruments, methods of observations, and results. they were also looking for a network of observatories. “if there be any branch of science in which work on a uniform system can be especially useful and advantageous, that branch is the inquiry into laws of weather, which, from its very nature, can only be prosecuted with a hope of success by means of very extensive observations embracing large areas, in fact, we might almost say, extending over the whole surface of the globe”.2 the results of the first international meteorological congress at vienna (2-16 september 1873) was very promising. delegates from different governments and important meteorologists had been invited. the most important discussions related to the first international polar year 56 standardising methods of observations and analysis, use of the same units of measure and of a single set of symbols, to publication and exchange of results, and to the completion and extension of the existing network.3 meteorologists had already understood that the weather in high latitudes held the key to the behaviour of the atmosphere on wide scales.4 in this context a recommendation was made concerning “the institution of meteorological stations in the north polar regions*, the meteorological conditions of which are as yet either very slightly or not at all known, and in the first place at spitsbergen”.5 after some discussions “and in high southern latitudes“ was added as footnote to the protocol after the asterisk * by georg neumayer (1826-1909).6 obviously the need of meteorological observatories in polar regions was acknowledged by all participants. when the permanent committee of the first international meteorological congress met under the presidency of christopherus buys-ballot (1817-1890) at london on 21.4.1876, distant stations were one of the topics. the discussions were based upon a proposal coming from carl weyprecht (1838-1881) to establish observatories in the arctic for securing simultaneous meteorological and magnetic measurements for at least one year.7 the committee was convinced “that such observations would be of the greatest value for the progress of both sciences“. it recommended to all countries to take part in such an enterprise and directed attention to a regular distributed network of stations at the following locations: spitsbergen, point barrow (alaska), alten in finmark, boothia felix (canada), the mouth of the lena (siberia), new siberia (russian arctic ocean), upernavik (west greenland), pendulum island (east greenland). polar research neumayer was pleading for south polar research since 1865. in the 1870s, he concentrated on astronomical and magnetic investigations in high southern latitudes.8 good opportunities were given by the transit of venus in front of the sun to take place on 9.12.1874 and 6.12.1882. the observations were needed to calculate the astronomical unit. neumayer favoured the kerguelen islands (1874) and south georgia (1882) as locations for german expeditions which would be also very good starting-points for antarctic research. in a lecture on geographical problems in polar regions, held in 1874, neumayer proposed co-ordinated similar and synchronous measurements in polar regions for a longer period.9 being hydrographer of the imperial admirality at berlin he was involved in the preparations of the circumnavigation of the s.m. “gazelle“ (1874-76). one of its main tasks was the establishment of an astronomical observatory on the kerguelen.10 here neumayer was in charge of the first step to realise his idea of south polar research. since 1876 he was in a more powerful position, when he became director of the german naval observatory at hamburg. in contrast to neumayer, german lieutenant of the austro-hungarian navy weyprecht had got polar experience leading the austro-hungarian northpolar expedition (1872-74), which discovered franz-josefs-land, but lost its ship. presenting the results of the expedition before the geographical society in london in 1875, weyprecht stated: “decisive scientific results can only be attained through a series of synchronous expeditions, whose task it would be to distribute themselves over the arctic regions and to obtain one year’s series of observations made according to the same method”.11 he elaborated his idea and on 18.9.1875, during the 48th meeting of the association of proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 57 german naturalists and physicians at graz, weyprecht presented six principles of arctic exploration12. he focussed on arctic exploration to be of the greatest importance for a knowledge of the laws of nature. it would not make sense to race for the north pole, because detailed arctic topography was of secondary importance. the most important principle said that isolated series of observations had only a relative value. this idea was focussed in the german motto “forschungswarten statt forschungsfahrten“. joint efforts to be more effective with his programme, weyprecht developed his proposal for presentation during the second international meteorological congress planned at rome in september 1877.13 it included a network of stations being identical with the recommendation of the meteorological committee except for boothia felix, which he replaced by novaya zemlya. following neumayer’s ideas, he also added stations on the southern hemisphere at cape horn, the kerguelen or macdonald islands, and auckland islands. due to the balkan war, the congress had to be postponed until april 14-22, 1879. on 22 april weyprecht gave a talk on co-ordinated meteorological research in the arctic during the session of the vth commission consisting of nine delegates and weyprecht as secretary.14 since three years he was planning an expedition to novaya zemlya to continue his meteorological, magnetic, and hydrographical measurements as well as observations of the aurora borealis. for more effective research he demanded synchronous observations at different places in high northern and southern regions. in vain he had tried to initiate similar small expeditions. nevertheless, he wanted to start his expedition in the following year and he asked the congress whether it would care for sending out additional expeditions at the same time or for sending one expedition in 1881 to continue his own measurements for another year. if there would be a sure promise of equipment and ships before the end of september 1879, then weyprecht would postpone his expedition for another year until 1881. in the following discussion, neumayer advocated for a network around antarctica. besides he promoted observatories on the kerguelen and auckland islands, to continue the measurements of the german transit of venus expeditions in 1874/75. besides other meteorologists, who were also in favour of investigations in both hemispheres, heinrich von wild (1883-1902, director of the central physical observatory at st. petersburg), wanted to focus the programme only to arctic research. henrik mohn (1835-1918, director of the royal norwegian meteorological institute at christiania, today oslo) was absolutely persuaded “que les régions arctiques sont le siége de cyclones, qui, avec leur partie méridionale, donnent lieu très-souvent à des tempêtes très-violentes dans les pays habités du nord, tandis que les détails de leur marche et de leur extension au delà de certaines limites nous restent tout à fait inconnus”.15 the combination of magnetic and meteorological measurements on such observatories was in question. here some delegates had to admit that they had no instructions to vote for or against magnetic investigations. this was the crucial point, because these instructions were absolutely important in decision making. at the end of the discussions, the congress recommended to all governments to support such undertakings and decided to entrust the international meteorological committee with the the first international polar year 58 establishment of a special commission which should only consist of members with instructions and full power of their governments, and coming from those countries which wanted to take part at that enterprise.16 due to lack of time, this commission should meet already at hamburg on 1.10.1879 to discuss details and performance. this honoured neumayer, member of the international committee, as the meeting should take place at the german naval observatory.17 this was the final initiation of the international polar year, which became the first co-ordinated international meteorological experiment.18 international polar commission the international polar commission was established during the meeting under the chairmanship of neumayer at hamburg (1-5 october 1879).19 austria, denmark, france, germany, the netherlands, norway, russia, and sweden had sent representatives. neumayer became president of the commission to organise the realisation of the experiment. objectives of the first meeting were number and places of observatories, starting time, duration, and minimum number of observations, uniformity of instruments and methods, and publication. finally a programme was prepared following weyprecht‘s proposal. measurements should be taken from a minimum of eight circumpolar stations for the period of one year, starting in autumn of 1881. the locations were nearly the same as proposed by the meteorological committee in 1876. instead new siberia weyprecht’s expedition to novaya zemlya came in, boothia felix was changed to any other point in the american arctic archipelago, and pendulum island could be changed to jan mayen. besides, stations on the southern hemisphere were recommended at south-georgia, on the kerguelen, auckland or campbell islands, and possibly on the balleny-island. the aim of international polar year (ipy), as it was called by then, laid in the extension of synchronous meteorological investigations in the arctic for development of weather and storm prediction in europe and the united states. the second international polar conference was arranged at bern (7-9 august 1880), where the international meteorological committee was to follow at the same place under the presidency of wild (9-12 august 1880).20 the work of the first conference had been a failure, because only austria, denmark, norway, and russia had agreed upon establishing observatories, so the ipy was deferred for another year and definitely fixed for autumn 1882-83. a further outcome of the meeting was neumayer’s resignation as president of the commission.21 obviously he was disappointed on the behaviour of the german empire not willing to support even a single expedition to the arctic. neumayer’s successor wild organised the third meeting of the polar commission at st. petersburg (1-8 august 1881). unfortunately, weyprecht could watch the development of his initiative as he had died on tuberculosis on 29 march 1881. finally eight stations to be established be seven nations were declared to be certain: point barrow and lady franklin bay (united states), godthaab/west-greenland (denmark), jan mayen (austria), mosselbay/spitsbergen (sweden), bossekop near alten/finmark (norway), the mouth of the lena (russia), dickson/siberia (the netherlands). the occupation of stations at fort simpson (canada), and in the southern hemisphere on cape horn (france) and south georgia (germany) was probable. the conference adopted the final programme. from 1 august 1882 to 31 august 1883, besides the arctic stations, meteorological stations and magnetic observatories all over the world, as well as proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 59 merchant and navy ships were invited to join the experiment with more complete magnetic measurements of term days (1st and 15th each month). the investigation of earth magnetism seemed to be very promising as a considerable amount of sun spots was expected during the ipy. besides the observation of the transit of venus was one of the tasks of the planned german expedition to south georgia. finally eleven nations established twelve stations in the arctic and two on the southern hemisphere (figure 1). fig. 1: circumpolar stations in the arctic during the first international polar year 188283.22 the first international polar year 60 big science – experiment – internationality big science can be defined by a big scale of investments and operations, and the logistics of which are budget consuming and research is manpower intensive. each participating state of the ipy was in charge of its own expedition being part of a big experiment to investigate the meteorology and earth magnetic field in high latitudes. logistics varied from land expeditions, for example in finland and norway, to expensive expeditions by ship like the french one, which provided the three masted bark “romanche“ and a crew of 111 men for the duration of the whole ipy.23 few observatories could use already existing huts to establish their observatories like in scandinavia. even an existing network of missions of the german herrenhuter brüdergemeinde along the coastline of labrador starting from nain up to rama in the north could be used for small meteorological stations.24 other expeditions had to carry prefabricated huts with them. the measurements were made by a civilian or military staff of small or big groups. the co-ordination of the experiment was in hand of the international polar commission originating from the meteorological committee. the commission divided the programme in two parts: necessary observations consisted of hourly observations of surface elements, extreme values, weather, and sea temperatures.25 optional observations included the investigation of changing temperatures with height. mostly mechanical instruments like barometer, thermometer, hygrometer, and few remote indicators of wind vane and anemometer were used. telegraphy for time keeping was only available at bossekop. referring to this, the ipy used small science equipment over a large area to perform big science. the experiment was designed to solve the problem of meteorology in the arctic. as method for solution, fixed circumpolar stations were chosen to work for the duration of one year. this network was realised by international co-operation. due to several postponements the period was defined by non scientific circumstances, but fortunately it fell together with a considerable sunspot activity. the measurements were synchronised by the göttingen standard time, a relict from the international geomagnetic union initiated by carl friedrich gauss (1777-1845) at göttingen, which performed synchronous measurements during the period from 1836 to 1848. finally, the data of the ipy were to be published on a national basis and distributed to the other participating countries. results when the expeditionshad returned26, the polar commission met again (17-24 april 1884).27 vienna was chosen as meeting place in honour of weyprecht’s earnings. the commission discussed analysis, form and deadline of publication, which was determined for december 1895.28 in respect to the magnetic measurements they decided, which days should be classed as magnetically disturbed or undisturbed. the fifth and final polar conference took place at munich on 3 september 1891, following the 1st conference of directors of meteorological services at the same place (26 august – 2 september 1891).29 only a few publications on magnetic observations proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 61 from godthaab, sagastyr (lena), and sodankylä were still missing and all results from the dutch expedition the ship of which got trapped in the ice of the kara sea. concerning the analysis of the total results of the ipy in meteorology and earth magnetism, two committees of three persons were established, with neumayer being member of each. it was also decided that the publications of all expeditions should be archived together with the archive of the international polar commission at the central physical observatory in st. petersburg. finally, when the last session had been closed, the international polar commission was dissolved. as all scientists know data sets from only one year are rather limited. they only give insight in accidental conditions and can not be considered describing a mean status. under consideration of this fact the results of the ipy gave the 1st data set describing the climate of the arctic (table 1). location (nation) longitude latitude coldest month warmest month yearly mean absolute maximum absolute minimum p. barrow (america) 71° 17‘n 156°40‘w -27,3 °c december 2,8 °c august -12,9 °c 15,8 °c -47,0 °c ft. rae (america) 62° 39‘n 115°44‘w -32,7 °c january 16,2 c° july -6,1 °c 25,6 °c -44,6 °c kinguafjord (germany) 66° 36‘n 67° 19‘w -35,8 °c february 7,4 °c august -11,4 °c 19,7 °c -48,1 °c ft. conger (america) 81° 44‘n 64° 45‘w -39,4 °c february 2,9 °c july -19,3 °c 11,3 °c -49,2 °c godthaab (denmark) 64° 11‘n 51° 44‘w -15,5 °c february 6,3 °c july -3,0 °c 14,9 °c -24,2 °c jan mayen (austria) 71° 0‘n 8° 28‘w -10,3 °c march 3,5 °c july -2,3 °c 9,0 °c -30,6 °c bossekop (norway) 69° 57‘n 23°15‘e -10,7 °c december 11,6 °c july 1,5 °c 26,3 °c -21,7 °c spitsbergen (sweden) 78° 28‘n 15° 42‘e -16,7 °c march 4,6 °c august -6,2°c 13,6 °c -35,5 °c sodankylä (finland) 67° 27‘n 26° 34‘e -16,7 °c december 14,9 °c june -0,6 °c 25,2 °c -37,7 °c n. zemlya (russia) 72° 23‘n 52° 36‘e -21,5 °c january 5,7 °c july -6,6 °c 15,7 °c -39,5 °c kara sea (netherland 71° 0‘n 63° 0‘e -28,2 °c january 1,5 °c july -11,2 °c 9,6 °c -47,2 °c sagastyr/lena (russia) 73° 22‘n 124° 5‘e -42,0 °c february 4,9 °c july -17,5 °c 12,8 °c -53,2 °c table 1: temperature conditions circumpolar of the arctic in the year 1882/83.30 the observations had been taken before aerological measurements were introduced, so they only give a two-dimensional view from the bottom of the atmosphere. besides, the spacing of network had been much to wide to analyse the dynamics of polar depressions. as a result, these data were rather insufficient for weather or storm the first international polar year 62 prediction. nevertheless, they provided a first climatology of the arctic. form the data synoptic charts of the north and south atlantic were constructed in england and germany.31 in respect to earth magnetism, the period of the ipy was very interesting due to a rise in sunspot activity before the moderate maximum of 1883. the classification of the daily observations resulted in two very strongly disturbed days (17.11.1882 and 20.12.1882). those data were acknowledged very much in expanding theories on earth magnetism later on. aftermath the science community had always complained that no survey of the total results of the ipy had ever been provided. i only found a german phd thesis on the distribution of temperature and pressure during the ipy presenting charts of monthly mean values for january and july.32 data from a total of 924 stations below 600 m were used. in the northern hemisphere it had been 799 temperature stations and 655 pressure stations, in the southern hemisphere 125 temperature stations and 74 pressure stations, and in addition 101 data points in the atlantic ocean for both parameters. 39 different reductions to daily mean values had to be reduced. figure 2 shows the expansion of knowledge in the arcitc especially concerning davis strait and influence of the gulf stream. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 63 figure 2: isotherms for january 1883.33 planning of the international airship expedition to the russian arctic, finally executed in 1931, the international society for the exploration of the arctic regions by means of aircraft (aeroarctic), pressure data were used to construct circumpolar charts of 22 days from periods of march to june 1883 published in the memorial of 1924.34 this shows that the measurements taken during the first big international meteorological experiment provided a valuable data set for half a century until the second international polar year took place in 1932-33. endnotes 1 oswald kopatz, “ein zähes, unverzichtbares ringen. zum gründungskontext der deutschen meteorologischen gesellschaft“, dahlemer archivgespräche, (1999), 4 : 119-149, p. 125. 2 carl bruhns, heinrich wild and carl jelinek, “invitation“, meteorological committee, report of the proceedings of the meteorological conference at leipzig, london, e. stanford, (1873), 5-9, p. 5. 3 meteorological committee, report of the proceedings of the meteorological conference at vienna, london, e. stanford, (1874), 87 p. 4 g.a. corby, “the first international polar year (1882/83)“, world meteorological organization bulletin, 31 (1982) 3: 197-214, p. 213. 5 niels hoffmeyer, “appendix 1. to the protocol of the eighth meeting“, report of the proceedings of the meteorological conference at vienna, london, e. stanford, (1874), 87 p., p. 59. 6 report of vienna, op. cit, p. 59, christopher buys-ballot, “report“, rapports sur les questions du programme du deuxième congrès météorologique international de rome, rome, hèrtiers botta, 1879, 17-21, p. 17,19. 7 chistopherus buys-ballot, “fourth meeting, april 21st,10:30 a.m.“, meteorological committee, report of the permanent committee of the first international congress at vienna, london, stanford, (1876), 62 p., p. 11. 8 georg neumayer, auf zum südpol!, berlin, vita deutsches verlagshaus, 1901, p. 131138. 9 georg neumayer, “die geographischen probleme innerhalb der polarzonen“, hydrographische mitteilungen (1874), p. 51-53, 63-68, 75-82, cited in neumayer, auf zum südpol!, op. cit.. p. 172-173. 10 cornelia lüdecke, “die routenfestlegung der ersten deutschen südpolarexpedition durch georg von neumayer und ihre auswirkung“, polarforschung, 59 (1989, erschienen 1991) 3: 103-111, p. 104. 11 karl weyprecht, “scientific work on the second austro-hungarian polar expedition, 1872-4“, royal geographical society journal, 45 (1875), 19-33, p. 33, gordon elliott fogg, a history of antarctic science, cambridge, cambridge university press, 1992, p.104. 12 f.w.g. baker, “the first international polar year, 1882-83“, polar record, 21 (1982) 132: 275-285, p. 277. 13 baker, “polar year“, polar record, op. cit., p. 277, heinrich wild und robert h. scott, “anhang 1b“, bericht über die verhandlungen des internationalen meteorologischen comités, versammlung in bern, hamburg, hammerich & lesser, 1881, 11-12, p. 12. the first international polar year 64 14 p.f. denza and carl weyprecht, “vierte sitzung”, georg neumayer, bericht über die verhandlungen des zweiten internationalen meteorologen-kongresses in rom, hamburg, l. friederichsen, 80-82, p. 81, p. 4. 15 henrik mohn, “rapport“, rapports sur les questions du programme du deuxième congrès météorologique international de rome, rome, hèrtiers botta, 1879, 29-31, p. 30. 16 “beschlüsse“, bericht über rom, op. cit., p. 90. 17 wild und scott, “anhang 1b“, bericht bern, op. cit., p. 12. 18 “an interview with dr. f.w.g. bales, executive secretary of icsu“, wmo bulletin 31 (1982) 3: 187-196, p. 193. 19 baker, “polar year“, op. cit., p. 278, “bericht über die verhandlungen und die ergebnisse der internationalen polar-konferenz, abgehalten in hamburg“. bericht bern, op. cit., 26-33. 20 heinrich wild, “bericht des internationalen meteorologischen comités“, bericht bern, op. cit., 1-8, georg neumayer, “anhang iii“, bericht bern, op. cit., p. 25-26, baker, “polar year“, polar record, op. cit., p. 278. 21 heirich wild, mittheilungen der internationalen polar-commission, st. petersburg, buchdruckerei der kaiserlichen akademie der wissenschaften, 1881, 364 p. 44-47, 269-272, baker, “polar year“, polar record, op. cit., p. 279. 22 after g.a. corby, “polar year (1882/83)“, op. cit, p. 201. 23 william barr, the expeditions of the first international polar year, 1882-83, the arctic institute of north america, technical paper no. 29 (1985), 222 p., g.a. corby, “polar year (1882/83)“, wmo bulletin, op. cit., p. 204-213; “an interview“, wmo bulletin, op. cit., p.189-193. 24 barr, expeditions, op. cit., p. 194-199. 25 ibid., p. 213-216. 26 ibid., p. 6-212. 27 baker, “polar year“, polar record, op. cit., p. 281-282. 28 heinrich wild, “protokolle der vierten internationalen polar-commission zu wien“, mittheilungen polar-commission, op. cit., 215-269, p. 256-262. 29 protokolle der schluss-sitzung der internationalen polar commission in münchen“, mittheilungen polar-commission, op. cit., p. 349-355. 30 julius von hann, handbuch der klimatologie, bd. 3, klimatographie, t.2, klima der gemäßigten zonen und der polarzonen, stuttgart, engelhorn 1911, p. 676. 31 corby, “polar year (1882/83)“, wmo bulletin, op. cit., p. 213-214. 32 sedald berhard ehrhart, die verteilung der temperatur und des luftdruckes auf der erdoberfläche im polarjahre 1882/1883, inaugural-dissertation, stuttgart, stuttgarter vereinsbuchdruckerei, 1902, 36 p., p. 12-16. 33 ehrhart, die verteilung der temperatur, op. cit.. table 1. 34 internationale studiengesellschaft zur erforschung der arktis mit dem luftschiff (hrsg.), das luftschiff als forschungsmittel in der arktis, berlin, 1924, 61 s. microsoft word 10wheeler.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 133 british naval logbooks from the late seventeenth century: new climatic information from old sources dennis wheeler university of sunderland, sunderland sr1 3pz, uk e-mail: denniswheeler@beeb.net introduction the recently completed cliwoc 1 project funded by the eu has demonstrated the value of the climatic information to be found so abundantly in old naval logbooks (garcia-herrera et al, 2005). this project was, however, confined to the period from 1750 to 1850 and, whilst many logbooks, especially in the uk, survive from much earlier times, they were not included in the analysis. this paper takes the opportunity to examine the oldest collection of logbooks that exist in sufficient quantities to provide a daily, regionally-based, series of weather observations and to gauge their value as sources of scientific data and information. logbooks of this antiquity are those of royal navy officers, lieutenants and captains, preserved in the national maritime museum at greenwich, south east london and in the national archives in kew, south west london. they cover the period from 1685 onwards that, fortuitously, embraces both a large part of the late maunder minimum and the coldest phase of the so-called little ice age. the character of the data is examined and some preliminary conclusions are drawn regarding the climate of the period. climatic data are abundant for this period, particularly in europe: ice core records, dendrochronological information, terrestrial and lacustrine sediments combine with a rich legacy of documentary sources to yield a comprehensive picture of the contemporary climate (jones and mann, 2004). equally importantly, the first instrumental data also extend back into the seventeenth century in the form of gordon manley’s central england temperature series, the oldest such data set in the world (manley, 1974). luterbacher et al. (2002) have forged these sources together to create valuable multi-proxy pressure field reconstructions for the period. it might, therefore, be asked what new insight logbooks can lend to this already well-developed field of study? the answer is three-fold. in the first instance, no new data source should be overlooked in the search for a clear understanding of the changes that climate has undergone in the past centuries. secondly, and more significantly, the logbook data provide information for a 1 cliwoc: climatological database for the world’s oceans: 1750 to 1850. www.ucm.es/info/cliwoc . british naval logbooks 134 part of the earth’s surface that is notoriously under-represented in such studies – the seas and oceans – and do so in the form of direct observations that are ‘non-proxy’ in character. finally, logbook data provide an unrivalled scale of temporal resolution, with observations being made at least daily, often more frequently. the nature of logbook climatic information almost as soon as mariners sailed out of sight of land and needed to maintain a record of their vessel’s speed, direction of sailing and other navigational details, some form of account was kept on board ship. christopher columbus provides one of the earliest examples of this type of record (fuson, 1987). from haphazard beginnings, matters became more regularised as the years went by and the size of navies became larger and voyages more frequent. by the late seventeenth century logbooks assumed a form that has endured with only minor changes until the presentday. a typical example of such an early logbook is given in figures 1a and 1b. these reveal the degree of detail contained within those venerable documents. on the left-hand page were recorded the date, latitude, longitude, bearings, wind directions and ship’s course. the right hand side contained a daily account that includes notes on wind force and weather. other information recorded here were the formal proceedings and accounts of the management of the vessel. by these means all weather observations are located in space and time; the former by date and the latter by latitude and longitude or, when close to shore, by bearings to observed landmarks. both, however, require cautious interpretation. dates in english documents of the period were based on the julian calendar, which was then ten days behind the more accurate gregorian calendar that was used across much of europe. the latter was not adopted in england until 1752. latitude could be determined with reasonable accuracy at this time, but longitude was a problem not fully resolved until the closing decades of the eighteenth century when the marine chronometer had been perfected (hewson, 1983). longitudinal corrections can, nevertheless, be applied by plotting the route of the vessel and checking against points of known longitude on the voyage, such as ports of arrival and departure. these issues are discussed more fully in koek and können (2005). history of meteorology 2 (2005) 135 british naval logbooks 136 figs. 1a and 1b. facing pages from a logbook typical of the period. these were written by an unknown officer on board hms experiment and date from june 1697. courtesy of the national maritime museum. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 137 observations of wind direction were made, as they are today and had then been for over a century, on the basis of the 32-point compass. as all such records were in the form of magnetic bearings, and corrections for magnetic variation need to be applied to express them by reference to true north. variation changed, however, through time and space, although studies have now provided detailed reconstructions of this phenomenon with which it is possible to convert any wind direction in magnetic form to its ‘true’ equivalent (bloxham & gubbins, 1985). in the present case, such corrections were minimal. weather descriptions, included within the general accounts, were written in the unadorned language of the day, and would have been readily understandable to any contemporary reader. most remain comprehensible today, if the spelling (‘raine’, ‘rayne’ etc.) is idiosyncratic and rules of punctuation applied in an anarchic fashion. the handwriting is often surprisingly clear, and presents few difficulties. the greatest challenge is offered by the wind force terms, which were included within the general descriptions. these were of a more technical nature, less familiar to those unaccustomed to the ways of the sea and formed part of the arcane vocabulary that mariners employ even today. the beaufort scale was not adopted by the royal navy until well into the nineteenth century (wheeler and wilkinson, 2004), but the logbook entries point unequivocally to the adoption, even in these formative times, of a limited number of widely-used descriptors, suggesting an unofficial precursor to the scale proposed by francis beaufort. the collection of early logbooks held at the national maritime museum was used in this study, and a sample compiled from ships sailing in the confined but frequently navigated area of the english channel. although some logbooks survive from the 1670s (wheeler, 2004) they are sufficiently abundant to provide for a daily series of observations only from 1685. the abstracted series concludes in 1700. the sample was comprised of 52 logbooks, with a smaller sub-set of randomly selected duplicate logbooks to act as checks for consistency of the record. the daily series derived from the sample yielded 5500 days of data. these were gathered into a database, the elements of which are listed in table 1. the content of the database gives notable testimony to the volume and variety of climatic information that can be abstracted, and inferred, from logbook daily entries. whilst none of the information is based on instrumental evidence, and much depends upon the judgement of the recording officer, it must be recalled that such officers would have enjoyed many years of experience on board royal navy vessels and would have been tutored in the manner of observation, ship management and navigation. even today it is commonplace for voss (voluntary observing ships) to report important meteorological data based on just such judgment-based observations. the published advice to present observers could apply with equal veracity to those of the late seventeenth century: non-instrumental observations are very important and, being estimates, they are dependent upon the personal judgement of the observer. this judgement is the product of training and experience at sea, together with practice in making the observations. (meteorological office, 1977, p.37). british naval logbooks 138 table 1. summary of climatic data derived from seventeenth century english logbooks. variable notes ship’s name as recorded in the logbook nmm catalogue reference the nmm has a printed catalogue of all logbooks in its collections. currently this is not available on-line. julian date as given in the logbook, but note should be made that the nautical day begins at noon and 12 hours ahead of the civil day. gregorian date at this time the julian date was ten days behind the gregorian. bearings to landmarks it was common practice when in the english channel to give location by bearings to known landmarks. wind force the original term is entered here. wind direction as recorded on a 32-point compass. no local corrections for magnetic variation were required for this period. weather as recorded in the logbook (original spellings retained). rain, snow, thunder, hail, fog these are derived data, and columns (yes/no entry) are provided to indicate when the ‘weather’ text includes any of these distinct elements. frost/cold day when the weather text indicates cold or frosty conditions, that inclusion is indicated here. beaufort wind force each original entry is re-expressed as its present-day beaufort scale equivalent (see below). gale day if the beaufort expression is gale force or stronger, it is flagged here. wind by cardinal quarter each wind direction is re-expressed in its appropriate cardinal quarter (n, s, e or w) the seventeenth century wind force scale the most well-known summary of the wind force scale said to be used by mariners of the late seventeenth century is that offered by daniel defoe in his collection of letters and accounts that describe the ‘great storm’ of 1703 (defoe, 1704). this scheme is reproduced in table 2. it is interesting to note the similarities to the beaufort scale, but it is clear that it does not compare in every respect with the vocabulary found in the logbooks of the period. defoe claimed the terms in table 2 to have been in popular usage, and most were indeed encountered in the logbook sample, but no record of either ‘top sail gale’ or of a ‘fret of wind’ was found, while ‘fine breezes’ were only rarely encountered. on the other hand, there are terms in popular use at the time that appear frequently in the database, for example ‘moderate gales’ and ‘blows hard’, which defoe did not recognize. the principal logbook vocabulary of the age is summarized in table 3 in which the eleven most widely used terms are included. over 70 history of meteorology 2 (2005) 139 different wind force terms were found but, as is evident from the cumulative frequencies, the eleven most frequently used items account for nearly 88 per cent of all entries, and many of the remainder were used only once or twice. some, but not all, of these terms survived to be adopted a century later by francis beaufort. the evolution of the vocabulary during that period and the means by which the scales have been rendered comparable have been reviewed in wheeler and wilkinson (2005). fortunately most of the archaic wind force terms could be expressed in present-day beaufort equivalent descriptors, leaving only some 1 per cent of wind force entries that could not be translated. table 2. defoe’s ‘table of winds’ as described in his account of the ‘great storm’ of 1703. defoe did not number his scale, the system being adopted here only for purposes of clarity. it is not intended to translate into beaufort’s terms. term grade* term grade stark calm 0 a top sail gale 6 calm weather 1 blows fresh 7 little wind 2 a hard gale of wind 8 a fine breeze 3 a fret of wind 9 a small gale 4 a storm 10 a fresh gale 5 a tempest 11 table 3. absolute and cumulative frequency (over all entries) of usage of the 11 most widely used wind force terms from the late seventeenth century. † indicates terms that have appeared in one or more of the beaufort scales used since 1806. rank of usage term frequency cum. frequency (%) 1 fresh gales† 1261 30.6 2 little wind 621 45.7 3 moderate gales† 457 56.8 4 hard gale 342 65.1 5 small gale 215 70.2 6 blows hard 207 75.2 7 variable 134 78.5 8 fine gales 129 81.6 9 blows fresh 101 83.1 10 calm† 99 85.5 11 strong gales† 99 87.9 preliminary findings from the database careful use of the vocabulary allows the database to be completed along the lines noted in table 1. from the resulting daily series it is possible to estimate the monthly means and counts that summarise the overall trends and changing climate of the period. the preliminary findings can be summarised as follows: wind direction a general picture of prevailing wind directions is recreated in table 4 in which the directional frequencies are resolved to monthly level but are based on data that have been british naval logbooks 140 converted from 32-point to 4-point form, each original entry being classified into one of the cardinal points. table 4. mean monthly wind directions (in proportions of each month) for 1685-1700. jan feb mar apr may june july aug sept oct nov dec year n 0.24 0.16 0.22 0.18 0.25 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 e 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.28 0.20 0.20 0.14 0.13 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.21 s 0.13 0.21 0.20 0.22 0.20 0.23 0.12 0.19 0.15 0.22 0.20 0.24 0.19 w 0.37 0.37 0.34 0.37 0.27 0.40 0.47 0.51 0.54 0.36 0.40 0.37 0.40 this is the first time that it has been possible to view the behaviour of the wind over the sea for such distant times at anything other than the coarsest of resolutions. moreover, whilst contemporary land-based records are by no means absent, they are dogged by the fact that wind direction is profoundly altered by the boundary layer conditions and may make it unrepresentative of the synoptic states that prevailed at the time of their measurement. this problem is not wholly resolved by the use of these marine data, but they represent a marked improvement on land-based observations. westerlies, not unexpectedly, dominate the picture, but attention should be drawn to the higher frequency of easterlies in late winter and early spring. more specifically, figure 2 shows the changing degree of westerliness from 1685 to 1700 using data aggregated to the monthly statistics. fig. 2. monthly index westerliness based on logbook observations. a gaussian filter running mean is superimposed. this important parameter is closely related to, but not identical to, the north atlantic oscillation index (the correlation between the two over the study period is r = 0.363 for the year, but r = 0.533 for the period december to february: both are significant at the 0.01 level). slonosky et al. (2001) have suggested that the region in question – that of the english channel – is a key location for the study of synoptic scale climatic behaviour over a much wider area of the north-east atlantic region. it is important, therefore, to recall that this ‘index of westerliness’ is not a proxy dataset, but is based on direct observations of the conditions of the day and that is may represent conditions that prevailed beyond the immediate limits of the study region. there is history of meteorology 2 (2005) 141 a high degree of temporal detail, and particular periods can be readily identified for future study. among them, those around 1688, 1695 and 1697 are noteworthy, as are those particular months when westerlies appear to have been absent (february 1688, march 1690, february 1692, december 1695 and april 1697). this finding is important because it emphasises the inherent variability of climate at this time. the episodic character of the periods in which westerlies are poorly represented shows also that the coolness of the british isles at this time – as witnessed by the central england temperature series (manley, 1974) – cannot be accounted for by persistent winter easterlies drawing cold polar continental air towards the region and that any tendency to such meridionality manifests itself in only a discontinuous fashion. nevertheless, the record suggests that winter easterlies were generally more frequent at this time than is the case today by a margin of some 10 per cent. gale frequencies the database’s gale series provide a particularly valuable data set that suggests that gales were far more frequent in the closing decades of the seventeenth century than they were three hundred later at the close of the twentieth (figure 3). more importantly, as wheeler and dominguez-suarez (2006) have shown, the greatest increase in gale frequencies occurred during the period march to october and, remarkably, they were less frequent in the winter season. this is probably accounted for by the steeper summer temperature gradients between the sub-tropical and high latitudes during summer, drawing the polar jet southwards and providing the system with a greater potential for active cyclonic development than is the case in the warmer summers that currently prevail. the appearance of well-developed continental anticyclones in winter might provide for ‘blocking’ situations in which the cyclones would adopt paths that avoided the british isles, thereby decreasing the incidence of gales at that season. fig. 3. monthly mean frequencies of days with winds of beaufort force 8 or more for the period 1685-1700 (shaded) and for the mid-twentieth century. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 j f m a m j j a s o n d a ve ra g e f re q u e n cy 1685-1700 c20 data british naval logbooks 142 precipitation even today, measurement of precipitation at sea is fraught with problems. in the late seventeenth century no attempt was made to measure the depth of rainfall but officers made careful note of precipitation when it was seen, usually taking care to distinguish between snow, hail and rain. the latter might be further qualified by the use of terms such as ‘heavy’, ‘light’, ‘showers’ or, even, ‘small rain’ and ‘mizzling’. the latter probably referring to drizzle (it is a term encountered in some parts of britain today). typical logbook entries would read “squalls of raine [sic] and hail”, or “the weather frosty with snow”. the most common entry would be in the form of a reference to wind force, followed “with rain” or “with snow”. with these observations it is possible to reconstruct a series of rain days. figure 4 shows this series, in which the daily data have been aggregated into monthly counts. the average number of rain days per year was 87, reaching a maximum of 140 in 1697 and a minimum of 50 in 1695. unless the climate had been notably drier at this time (and there is no evidence that it was) such data suggest under-recording of precipitation, emphasising the need to concentrate on the patterns of relative and not absolute frequencies. greater care yet is needed with reference to fog, and it is evident that the term was used to embrace conditions that would not today qualify for such an entry and was used as a general description for poor visibility, be it fog or mist sensu stricto or those times when sea spray might have obscured visibility; fog [sic] was often recorded with strong gales. fig. 4. series of rain days (by months) for the english channel 1685 to 1700.units are standard deviations about the overall mean. allowing for the fact that there may be unavoidable under-recording of precipitation, it is still possible to recreate the patterns of wet and dry spells, and figure 4 reveals the predominantly wet conditions that characterised the close of the study period and the drier conditions of the immediately preceding months. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 143 cold weather no ships of this period carried thermometers but, perhaps because of the difficulties that frost and very cold conditions made for ship management, cold weather tended to be noted. hot weather was not accorded the same degree of attention. the cet for this period is expressed in monthly form only, and daily temperature data are rare for this period, nevertheless, individual cold days are chronicled in the logbooks sometimes identifying protracted periods of such conditions and defining with precision the start and conclusions of such spells of weather. the most marked of these are summarised in table 5, in which the corresponding wind directions and cet anomalies are included. it is informative to note that these spells coincide with notably cold months in the cet and that they are commonly the result of outbreaks of easterly winds. they give, however, a finer degree of resolution and detail to the temperature regime than has hitherto been possible. british naval logbooks 144 table 5. summary of cold spells noted in the logbooks for the period 1685 to 1700. dates (ns) of cold weather spells description winds cet anomaly for the month (deg. c) details 10-13 & 17 th jan. 1685 frosty between ne and s -2.1 recorded at the downs on hms deptford by an unknown officer 29 th dec. 7, 9-11, 13, 15 & 16 th jan. 1689 frosty and frosted hard exclusively from ne -2.1 recorded at portsmouth on hms elizabeth by an unknown officer 31 st jan. & 4, 5, 11, 14, 16, 19 th feb. 1692 cold and frosty mostly ne until 11 th feb, then between n and e -2.6 (feb.) recorded by lt. w bridgman on hms hope at the downs. from 10 th february the record is from hms centurion (officer unknown) off the southern irish coast. 29 th nov. – 3 rd dec. 1693 frosty and cold raw winds mostly nw -0.3 (dec.) recorded at plymouth on board hms devonshire (officer unknown) 14, 17-19 & 24 th jan. 1694 frosty winds between nw and ne -2.6 recorded at st helens on board hms dragon (officer unknown) 15-17 th march 1699 frosty winds ne to ese becoming s on 17 th -0.6 recorded off north foreland on board hms bedford (officer unknown). conclusions the use of logbooks for purposes of climatic reconstructions is still very much in its infancy. nevertheless, as the above example shows, the abstracted and carefully treated data can provide a unique insight into the climate of past centuries. for the first time, scientists can see the how the oceanic weather was behaving at a daily scale of resolution, and can aggregate these data to recreate a longer-term, climatic impression at monthly, seasonal or annual scales should it be necessary. equally importantly, the data source has a notable degree of homogeneity; the vocabulary is tolerably consistent and the methods of observations in all probability identical between officers. while logbooks exist in such huge quantities as they do (over 120,000 exist in uk archives for the period 1680 to 1850) there is abundant scope for this modest exercise to be repeated at a much larger scale, as has been done by the eu-funded cliwoc (climatological database for the world’s oceans:1750 to 1850) cited in the opening paragraph. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 145 references bloxham, j. and d. gubbins, 1985. “the secular variation of earth’s magnetic field,” nature 317, 777-781. defoe, d., 1704. the storm: or, a collection of the most remarkable casualties and disasters which happen’d in the late dreadful tempest by both sea and land. london. fuson, r.h., 1987. the log of christopher columbus. southampton, uk: ashford press. garcía-herrera, r., g.p. können, d. wheeler, m.r. prieto, p.d. jones, and f.b. koek, 2005. “cliwoc: a climatological database for the world’s oceans 1750-1854,” climatic change 73, 1-12. hewson, j.b., 1983. a history of the practice of navigation. glasgow: brown, son and ferguson. koek, f.b., and g.p. können, 2005. “determination of wind force and present weather terms: the dutch case,” climatic change 73, 79-95. jones, p.d. and m. mann, m., 2004. “climate over past millennia,” rev. geophys., 42, rg2002 doi:10.1029/2003rg000143. manley, g., 1974. “central england temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973,” quart. j. roy. meteorol. soc., 100, 385-405. meteorological office, 1977. marine observer’s handbook. london: hmso. luterbacher, j., c. schmutz, d. gyalistras, e. xoplaxi, and h. wanner, 2002. “extending north atlantic oscillation reconstructions back to 1500,” atmos. sci. letters, 2, 114-124. slonosky, v., p.d. jones, and t.d. davies, 2001. instrumental pressure observations and atmospheric circulation from the 17 th and 18 th centuries: london and paris,” intl. j. climatology, 21, 285-298. wheeler, d., 2004. understanding seventeenth century ships’ logbooks: an exercise in historical climatology, j. maritime res., march 2004, published electronically at www.jmr.ac.uk. wheeler, d. and j. dominguez suarez, 2006. “climatic reconstructions for the northeast atlantic region ad 1685-1700: a new source of evidence from naval logbooks,” the holocene, 11, in press. wheeler. d. and c. wilkinson, 2004. from calm to storm: the origins of the beaufort wind scale. mariner’s mirror, 90, 187-201. wheeler. d. and c. wilkinson, c., 2005. “determination of terms for wind force/present weather. the english case,” climatic change 73, 57-77. british naval logbooks 146 microsoft word 11keopke_baten.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 147 climate and its impact on the biological standard of living in north-east, centre-west and south europe during the last 2000 years nikola koepke and joerg baten university of tuebingen and cesifo abstract we argue that historical climatology is crucial for understanding human living standards, for which anthropometric indices are an important proxy variable, given the biological relationship with quality and quantity of nutrition. for example, did climatic change cause the demographic catastrophes of the 14 th and 17 th centuries, as galloway (1986) argued (see e.g. also kelly, n.y.)? this study uses recent estimates of human stature over the last two millennia in three different european regions and compares them directly with estimates of temperature. we employ both a climatic index based on a number of series, and a recent series by mann and jones (2004). the basic finding is that overall, the impact of temperature is economically, but not statistically significant. starting in the 9 th century statistical significance is given, however, when population density exceeds a previously unknown level. it seems that population pressure made the european populations, especially north of the alps, more vulnerable to climatic shocks. climatic influence on height one of the most fascinating topics of long-run economic history is the relationship between climate and human living standards. especially in pre-industrial times, we would expect an impact of climate on agricultural production (especially protein production), and thus on the quality of nutrition, and therefore mean height. furthermore, due to more humid or colder winters, food storage becomes more difficult in central europe. indeed, the impact on human history was immense: on the 18 th century climate-height effect see baten (2002). grove (2002) demonstrated how the switch from the medieval warm period (900 to the early 13 th century) to the little ice age, starting around the late 13 th century, has decreased harvests and protein production from cattle and sheep. 1 not only did temperatures decline, but as colder winters tended to be generally correlated with more frequent weather extremes, other climatic problems also created a deadly synergy. for example, cattle epidemics spread rapidly in northern and 1 grain yields were falling between 1220 and 1320, see grove (2002), figure 2. biological standard of living 148 western europe by the 13 th and early 14 th century, killing a large part of the cattle stock. therefore grove argued that the agricultural production decline took place before and parallel to the black death of the mid-14 th century. although plague is a highly infectious disease that is only mildly influenced by malnutrition, lower nutritional status might have weakened the immune system of the european population, contributing strongly to the large population loss of the 14 th century. in addition, during famines people often leave their households and start to move around in search of other subsistence possibilities (mokyr and o‘grada, 2002). the most northern cattleand fisherybased economies of europe suffered most. iceland lost most of its population, and the european population of greenland completely disappeared. the 15 th century and the first two thirds of the 16 th century were warmer again, but the 17 th century represents the next climatic catastrophe. pfister (1988) has described how climate reduced swiss nutritional status in the last decades of the 16 th and most of the 17 th century. while most of the population decline of the 17 th century is traditionally attributed to the thirty years‘ war as well as to the hunger and the infectious disease that accompanied it, the rapid climatic deterioration could have contributed to the large number of deaths from (at least partially) nutrition-related diseases. the synergy between protein malnutrition and death from a large array of diseases can also explain why the population stagnated or even declined in countries that did not directly participate in the thirty years‘ war. milder episodes of climatic deterioration in the late 18 th and mid-19 th centuries coincided with milder demographic effects on average, even if some regions and countries were severely affected (grove 2002). these developments in individual centuries suggest that there was an impact of climate on nutritional conditions in some centuries of the 2 nd millennium. but what we want to clarify in this study are three questions: was there a relationship of temperature and mean height also for the long run from 0 to 1800 ad? did increasing population density lead to higher vulnerability? and if so, at which point in time did this happen? climate series to check this we created a climate index using different series. recent research offers estimates from alpine and scandinavian glacier movements, greenland ice cores, oak tree rings and lake sediments to quantify climatic change over these centuries. 2 all of those series appear to be correlated in general. we used the european glacier movements mainly as explanatory variables, because they are available for the ancient period, and the evidence might be less indirect for the region under study compared with, for example, greenland oxygen isotope ratios (see lamb 1982; patzelt, 1994; heide, 1997; grove, 2002, p. 316). however, the literature emphasizes that glacier movements reflect temperature changes with a certain time lag. therefore we calculated the average of the previous and the current century’s glacier movement. additionally, we corroborated our glacier series with tree-ring series from north sweden that also stretches back to the ancient period (and compared both with a shorter tree-ring series on the alpine area: they moved in accordance, see huntley et al., 2002, p. 278). 3 for comparison, we 2 see e.g. frenzel et al. 1997, or for an overview of possible methods see e.g. wigley et al., 1981. 3 we experimented with local temperature series for the three regions north/eastern, central/western and southern europe, but the differences between the series were extremely small, so we abandoned this avenue of temperature measurement. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 149 used the recent temperature series estimates by mann and jones on the northern hemisphere (2003a, 2003b, 2004), which starts in the early 3 rd century ad. height series mean height has often been used as an indicator for the quality of nutrition. 4 we estimated height trends for the mediterranean, northeastern and central-western europe for the 1 st to the 18 th century a.d. because of dating limitations for a regular archaeological site, the unit of analysis is restricted to the century. in a related study we devoted considerable space to describe our strategies, here we will only summarize them. 5 we could rely on a sample of 9477 height estimations from 314 sites. in some cases previous investigators aggregated heights of two to 360 individuals; thus we have 2974 separate height numbers. we used both weighted regressions (weighted with square roots) and regressions with individuals only to estimate height trends by gender and by the three european regions. the regression approach allowed us to control for migration 6 and social status 7 , as far as we (and earlier scholars) were able to determine this using grave goods and similar information. we arrived at trends as given in figure 1 and figure 2. the overall picture shows stagnating heights indicating no real progress in european nutritional status until around 1800 but there is considerable variation between 4 this is the common procedure in anthropometric research: see e.g. komlos, 1989, komlos and baten, 1998, steckel, 1995. but because of the study period we got our height estimations not from written sources, but from physical anthropological analysis of bones from excavated cemeteries, see koepke/baten 2005. 5 koepke and baten, 2005. 6 concerning migration: a number of anthropologists are still convinced that genetic height potentials play a large role, whereas other anthropologists have doubts whether genetic height potentials explain any variation in average height of a population – in contrast to individual height which is clearly influenced by genetic factors (bogin, 1988, mascie-taylor and bogin, 1995). anthropometric historians found that environmental circumstances during growth have the most important impact on variation in mean height. two points are important in this respect. firstly, most migrants experienced a different environment during their first years of life, compared with the autochthonous population. for example, if they were born in a northern or eastern european agricultural environment and than migrated to the mediterranean in their later life, we would expect them to be significantly taller. secondly, if immigration is large enough, agricultural production techniques might be transferred to the target region, if they turn out to be sufficiently efficient in the new environment. we know that the most important migration streams moved from the mediterranean region into central and western europe in the first to third century, and there were important germanic (and other) migrations from northern europe to eastern, central and southern europe and later to the british isles from the fourth to sixth centuries. migrants from the mediterranean to central europe (especially roman soldiers and officers, as well as administrative staff) turned out to be 4 cm shorter than the rest of the population. but skeletons that could be identified as “germanic migrants” were not significantly different from eastern europeans. also not statistically significant, but economically meaningful was their coefficient in the “mediterranean” regression: germanic migrants, who died in the mediterranean region, were 1.63 cm taller. 7 social status is an important variable, as many studies on the 18 th to 20 th centuries found height differences of typically 2-4 cm among adults of lower versus middle and upper class (see e.g. baten, 2000). in our data set, we relied mostly on the classification schemes of the original studies. if skeletons were not of higher social rank, the excavation reports often did not find this fact worth mentioning. we therefore assigned dummy variables only to the cases of middle and upper class social origin (leaving a “lower or unknown” group for the constant). this also means that we should not over-interpret the coefficient of this social status variable. however, this variable is not only important by itself, but is also necessary to control for the social composition and potential social selectivity when we analyze height trends. although the bulk of our measurements stems from burial sites that represented all social strata, we wanted to exclude the possibility of social selectivity causing height trends as far as possible. biological standard of living 150 centuries. 8 how could we make sure that this was a reliable estimate of height development? naturally, this kind of estimation (for non-modern periods) has many limitations – although our sample is much larger than earlier studies, the number of cases is still small in comparison to data sets on more recent periods. but it is reassuring that counterchecking height trends for separate european regions and for genders moved in similar directions, except where we expected them to diverge. for example, we expected a worsening development for northern and eastern europe during the little ice age (14-17 th centuries) because of the more extreme impact of the temperature change there, and the northeastern europeans actually lost their favorable position during these centuries. 9 in contrast, the conditions were more favorable in more continental central-western europe during this period. female mean height is naturally always lower than male height. but female growth is also determined by discrimination of females. female heights were even more depressed relatively to males during the middle ages than in the other epochs, whereas gender dimorphism decreased in the renaissance period. 10 this fact also fits our expectations. apart from those expected deviations, height trends moved relatively similarly in the long run. hence, we conclude that the estimates of development were reasonably reliable. but we applied an additional strategy to ascertain reliability: we checked burial sites that were in use for more than a century. if those shared the same trend with the large region, we could be sure that it was not a random regional composition effect that caused our trends. among those cases with large sample numbers the majority pointed in this direction. the highly synchronistic development of human heights by itself might suggest an influence of temperature conditions, because these probably have been more similar across european regions than economic conditions. 8 during roman times we have more or less stagnating heights; this is interesting as (having archaeological studies in mind) one would expect an increase in the 2 nd century, and a more pronounced decline in the 4 th century. remarkably is the increase in the 5 th and 6 th century despite the migration period temperature pessimum. the 11 th and 12 th century were favourable for mean height this is also the medieval warm period, see crowley and lowery, 2000. the decrease in the 13 th century may be explained by bad climate (beginning of the little ice age). the decrease in the 17 th century could be a consequence of the thirty-year’s war and parallel climatic deterioration. 9 in general people in the north-eastern region are the tallest, mediterraneans have the lowest mean height: however, not due to genetics, but due to environmental factors: the northeast has low population density and animal protein rich diet due to cattle husbandry, whereas in the south it is the opposite (high population pressure and mediterranean diet based on less meat consumption, in this concentrated on pork): see e.g. king, 1999. in between are the people of central-western europe, which is the region that has been under roman occupation in the beginning of our study period. 10 see e.g. ulrich-bochsler, 1996. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 151 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 birth century h e ig h t in c m fig. 1. height development, 1 st to 18 th centuries a.d. (in cm, male and female). source: see table 1. the level of heights was adjusted to male heights of an average european (using the regional coefficients and weighting them with sample weights). 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 birth century h e ig h t in c m centre_west mediterr north_east fig. 2. height development by major regions (in cm), 1 st to 18 th centuries a.d. source: see table 1. comparison of temperature and height development there are some similarities and many differences between the height and the temperature series (figure 3). the well-documented climatic optimum of the 11 th /12 th centuries and lower values before and after are visible in the height series. the low values of the 7 th and 8 th centuries, biological standard of living 152 and the crisis of the 17 th century could have been caused by adverse climatic conditions. 11 important deviations relate to the 1 st to 6 th and to the 13 th centuries. in our opinion the most likely interpretation is that despite of the phase of migration period pessimism after the breakdown of the roman empire average height increased because of better nutritional status and improved environmental conditions, due to various phenomena: (1) population density and urbanization decreased after invasions and plague epidemics. the consumers moved back to the proximity of nutrient production. infectious disease might have appeared less frequently (although the (supposed) 12 second occurrence of the plague in the sixth century contradicts it). (2) germanic invaders brought their agricultural methods that emphasized protein production. even if this specialization was inefficient in the mediterranean, the settlers might have kept them for a transitory period. in central and western europe, the methods were efficient as long as population density was low. these two developments might explain why the temperature-height relationship is not visible for the first eight centuries. 13 a second possible interpretation is that after the 9 th century, population density was so high that the european population became more vulnerable to climate. a comparison of the development of mean height and the temperature index created by mann and jones (2004) (figure 4) indicates more parallel movements. but also in this case, we cannot see a connection over all the centuries of our study period. interestingly, this similar development starts with the 9 th century a.d., whereas it is very obvious that from the 1 st until the 8 th century a.d. both series do not move together at all. 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 birth century h e ig h t in c m 9,10 9,15 9,20 9,25 9,30 9,35 9,40 9,45 t e m p e ra tu re i n d e x height temp.index fig, 3. height (in cm) and temperature development (based on glacier movements and tree rings), 1st to 18th centuries a.d. 11 around 1700 was (probably) the coldest phase of the little ice age: see bradley/jones, 1993. 12 the so-called antonine plague is regarded as the first one. 13 the low height value of the 13 th century is particularly interesting and deserves further study. was it because of the rapid urbanization of this period (more infectious disease, less milk for rural-to-urban migrants)? or because of more social or gender inequality? does a measurement error bias the height variable? history of meteorology 2 (2005) 153 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 birth century h e ig h t in c m -0,45 -0,4 -0,35 -0,3 -0,25 -0,2 -0,15 -0,1 -0,05 0 0,05 t e m p e ra tu re i n d e x mean height (in cm) temperature index (mann/jones) fig. 4. height (in cm) and temperature development (index by mann-jones), 1st to 18th centuries a.d. results: impact of temperature on height using both our composite index and the mann/jones temperature index we come to the conclusion that warmer climate has a positive, but insignificant impact on mean height for the whole period (table 1, col. 2-5): warmer temperature is good for harvests and protein production in the relevant range, and this is favorable for height. the difference between two standard deviations of our climatic series is 0.12, the difference between minimum and maximum is 0.20. the coefficient of the more appropriately specified model is 2.97. the difference between “good” and “bad climate” was therefore about 0.4 cm, the difference between the extremes about 0.6 cm. both values are at the margin of being economically significant. 14 without controls for period, this variable is economically unimportant. but the tall stature of north-eastern europeans in the warm 11 th /12 th century, and its dramatic decline afterwards lends support for the importance of this variable. using mann and jones’ climate index (see table 2, col. 2 and 3) the difference between minimum and maximum is 0.22. the coefficient of 7.01 indicates that two standard deviations (0.10) imply 1.4 cm height difference between typical favorable and unfavorable periods. if we conduct regressions starting in the 9 th century a.d., the relationship between temperature and height becomes statistically significant (see table 1, col. 6 and 7). again, this result is robust using both temperature indices (see also table 2, col. 4 and 5). this is interesting, because in the 9 th century, population density exceeded a previously unknown level. it seems as 14 temperature is statistically insignificant as explanatory variable for mean height; without controlling for period it is even economically unimportant. biological standard of living 154 if population pressure made the european populations, especially north of the alps, more vulnerable to temperature shocks. table 1. two regressions : determinants of mean height in europe, using our composite index for climatic conditions. p-values in columns 3, 5, 7 in italics. weighted least squares regression: number of cases adjusted for aggregated observations using square roots. constant refers to a hypothetical height value for the early middle ages, and central/western europe. columns 2 5: 1 st 18 th century a.d. columns 6-7: 9 th 18 th century a.d. . source: see koepke/baten 2005. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 centuries 1st-18th 1st-18th 9th-18th coefficients p-values coefficients p-values coefficients p-values constant 144.4 0.00 164.37 0.00 -14.03 0.00 climate warm 2.97 0.52 0.82 0.84 18.94 0.02 gender inequality 0.31 0.50 -0.29 0.46 1.60 0.02 urban share 0.16 0.23 0.2 0.14 0.25 0.08 population density 0.06 0.37 -0.08 0.20 -0.03 0.55 roman bath/ technology -2.05 0.01 social inequality -0.17 0.58 mediterranean 1.66 0.05 -1.67 0.04 -3.56 0.01 north-eastern europe 1.17 0.03 0.89 0.07 0.92 0.17 antiquity 1.68 0.01 late medieval period 0.48 0.52 -3.00 0.02 modern (15 th to 18 th c.) 0.76 0.59 -0.79 0.49 adj. rsq 0.33 0.38 0.60 n 36 36 17 history of meteorology 2 (2005) 155 table 2. two regressions: determinants of mean height in europe, using the mann-jones index for climatic conditions. p-values in columns 3, 5 in italics. weighted least squares regression: number of cases adjusted for aggregated observations using square roots. constant refers to a hypothetical height value for the early middle ages, and central/western europe. we used the data on the northern hemisphere provided by mann/jones to get best possible correspondence; unfortunately no data especially on europe is given. columns 2 3: 3 rd 18 th century a.d. columns 4-5: 9 th 18 th century a.d. source: see koepke/baten 2005 and mann/jones 2004. 1 2 3 4 5 centuries 3rd-18th 9th-18th coefficients p-values coefficients p-values constant 175.78 0.00 172.05 0.00 climate warm (mann/jones 2004) 7.01 0.23 15.51 0.03 gender inequality -0.69 0.23 0.60 0.91 urban share 0.22 0.12 0.34 0.03 population density -0.08 0.18 -0.09 0.11 mediterranean -2.05 0.02 -3.33 0.01 north-eastern europe 1.10 0.05 1.33 0.07 antiquity -1.79 0.01 late medieval period -0.16 0.82 0.73 0.37 modern (15 th to 18 th c.) -0.48 0.75 1.40 0.34 adj. rsq 0.31 0.54 n 32 17 one could argue that cold climate might not be harmful but rather beneficial in the mediterranean, because precipitation could become more frequent there, when temperature gets colder. we tested (using our index) whether our results would change if we exclude the observations on the mediterranean, and found the coefficient for temperature unchanged: the coefficient was 2.74, compared with 2.97 when the mediterranean was included (see table 3). biological standard of living 156 table 3. regression: determinants of mean height only in western and northeastern europe, using our composite index for climatic conditions. p-values in column 3, in italics. weighted least squares regression: number of cases adjusted for aggregated observations using square roots. constant refers to a hypothetical height value for the early middle ages, and central/western europe. source: see table 1. 1 2 3 centuries 1 st -18 th coefficient p-values constant 146.51 0.01 climate warm 2.74 0.60 gender inequality 0.32 0.53 urban share 0.17 0.29 population density 0.07 0.37 north-eastern europe 1.15 0.06 antiquity 1.76 0.02 late medieval period 0.36 0.67 modern (15 th to 18 th c.) 0.56 0.72 adj. rsq 0.21 n 30 except for the bundle of explanations given above for the missing relation of temperature and mean height in the long run, it is possible, of course, that there is measurement error, especially for the early period, for which the temperature estimates are known to be particularly imprecise. 15 we also have to keep in mind the probability that other climatic factors, e.g. precipitation, are also important determinants, which we could not control for in detail, because no data series are available fitting with our long-run study period for now. which other factors influenced the development of mean height? apart from temperature, most of the other variables are statistically insignificant, but bear the expected sign in the regression analysis (see table 1): population density comes closest to statistical significance; in unweighted regressions the p-value is even as low as 0.15. this suggests that lower population density is advantageous for the biological component of the standard of living that is reflected in stature in pre-industrial times, after controlling for large-region effects and inequality. the analysis of economic significance for population density yields a height effect of about 1.0 cm for the typical “high” and “low” population density of the time, and 2.2 cm between the most extreme observed values. in other specifications, the economic significance of population density would even be one third greater. malthusian theory of land as limiting factor for human development seems to be confirmed (for period until 1800). gender inequality and social inequality both had negative signs in the regressions for the whole period (col. 2-5). given that these results are similar to those of many other studies on the 18 th to 20 th centuries, we tend to attribute fairly large credibility to them. in terms of economic significance, social inequality meant 0.63 cm between high and low, and 0.74 between extremes, whereas the effect of gender inequality was about half of that. the slightly astonishing result for gender inequality during the 15 but it is also possible that the relation is truly weak. the interpretation could be awkward, because the temperature series does not correspond to real conditions exactly enough. for example, by now the discussion is still in progress, when the little ice age started: compare e.g. de menocal et al., 2000; jones et al. 2001. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 157 9 th to 18 th centuries (table 1, col. 6: positive) is not robust. when using the mann-jones climate index, gender inequality is insignificant, and the coefficient less than half the size. the “roman bath/technology” dummy 16 in the regression without time dummies actually has an unfavorable impact on mean height. in sum, population density is definitely of economic significance, but not of statistical significance. social inequality and gender inequality are at the margin of being economically significant. conclusion our study is based on the first anthropometric estimates on the biological standard of living in central europe of the two millennia a.d. in the long run no general increase in mean height took place. the height development is quite synchronistic in the three “large regions” of europe. population density is an economically significant determinant of mean height: it has a negative influence on height due to malthusian factors. urbanization has a positive impact, if we control for population density. roman health system/technology, social and gender inequality, as well as temperature are of marginal significance. the results regarding temperature are robust using different temperature indices. remarkably, we found a statistically significant relationship between temperature and height using data from the 9 th century ad onwards; probably extremely increased population density made the europeans more vulnerable to climatic changes. 16 in order to test how public health developed over the last two millennia especially, whether the picture of an advanced roman bathing system and water supply technology on the one hand, and a decline of hygienic conditions after the end of the roman empire on the other hand, is correct we coded a “roman bath” dummy variable (1 for the mediterranean for the centuries 1 to 4, and for central/western europe for the centuries 2 to 4). as this specification might also captures other aspects of roman technology and the imperial economic system we named this variable “roman bath/technology”. in the regression without time dummies this dummy becomes statistically significant. however, contrary to popular belief roman bath technology and especially other technology (e.g. in agricultural terms) could not compensate negative effects of the roman economic system: the coefficient of this variable is negative. biological standard of living 158 references baten, j., 2000, economic development and the distribution of nutritional resources in bavaria, 1797-1839, journal of income distribution 9, 89-106. baten, j., 2002, climate, grain production and nutritional status in 18th century southern germany, journal of european economic history, 30.1, 9-47. bogin, b., 1988, patterns of human growth. cambridge university press, cambridge. bradley, s., and p. jones, 1993, ‘little ice age’ summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends, the holocene, 3,4, 367-376. crowley, t., and t. lowery, 2000, how warm was the medieval warm period? ambio, 29, 5154. demenocal, p., et al., 2000, coherent highand low-latitude climate variability during the holocene warm period, science, 288, 5474, 2198-2202. frenzel, b., et al., 1997, glacier fluctuations during the holocene. stuttgart. galloway, p., 1986, long-term fluctuations in climate and population in the pre-industrial era, population and development review 12.1, 1-24. grove, j., 2002, climatic change in northern europe over the last two thousand years and its possible influence on human activity. in: wefer, g. et al. (eds.), climate development and history of the north atlantic realm, hanse conference on climate history, springer, berlin/heidelberg, 313-326. heide, a., 1997, das wetter und klima römischer antike im westen des reiches. unpublished ph.d. thesis, mainz. huntley, b., et al., 2002, holocene climatic history of northern europe as recorded by vegetation changes: possible fluctuations upon human activity, in: wefer, g. et al. (eds.), climate development and history of the north atlantic real, hanse conference on climate history, springer, berlin/heidelberg, 223-232. jones, p., et al., 2001, the evolution of climate over the last millennium, science, 292, 5517, 662-667. kelly, m., (no year given), climate and pre-industrial growth, working paper on: http://www.ucd.ie/economic/staff/mkelly/papers/climate.pdf. king, a. 1999, meat diet in the roman world: a regional inter-site comparison of the mammal bones, journal of roman archaeology 12, 1999, 168-202. koepke, n., and j. baten, 2005, the biological standard of living in europe during the last two millennia, european review of economic history, 9.1, 61-95. komlos, j., 1989, nutrition and economic development in the eighteenth century habsburg monarchy: an anthropometric history, princeton university press, princeton, nj komlos, j., and j. baten, 1998, height and the standard of living. journal of economic history, 57.3, 866-870. lamb, h. 1982, climate, history and the modern world, methuen & co,. london. mann, m., and p. jones, 2003a, global surface temperatures over the past two millennia, geophysical research letter,s 30.15, 1820. mann, m., and p. jones, 2003b, 2,000 year hemispheric multi-proxy temperature reconstructions, igbp pages/world data center for climatology. data contribution series 2003-015. noaa/ngdc paleoclimatology program, boulder co, usa. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 159 mann, m., and p. jones, 2004, 2,000 year hemispheric multi-proxy temperature reconstructions, igbp pages/world data center for climatology, data contribution series, noaa/ngdc paleoclimatology program, boulder co, usa mascie-taylor, c., and b. bogin, 1995, human variability and plasticit,y cambridge studies in biological anthropology, cambridge university press, cambridge. mokyr, j., and c. o‘grada, 2002, what do people die of during famines? the great irish famine in comparative perspective, european review of economic history 6.3, 339-363. patzelt, g. 1994, die klimatischen verhältnisse im südlichen mitteleuropa zur römerzeit, in: bender, h., ad wolff, h. (eds.), ländliche besiedlung und landwirtschaft in den rheindonau-provinzen des römischen reichs, espelkamp. pfister, c. 1988 3 , klimageschichte der schweiz 1525 – 186,. das klima der schweiz von 1525 – 1860 und seine bedeutung in der geschichte von bevölkerung und landwirtschaft, haupt verlag, bern/stuttgart. steckel, r. 1995, stature and the standard of living, journal of economic literature, 33,4, 1903-1940. ulrich-bochsler, s., 1996, anthropologische befunde zu frau und kind in mittelalter und neuzeit unter besonderer berücksichtigung der stellung der frühund neugeborenen: soziobiologische und soziokulturelle aspekte im lichte von archäologie, geschichte, volkskunde und medizingeschichte, basel, univ., diss. mikrofiche. wigley, t., et al., 1981, climate and history, studies in past climates and their impact of man, cambridge university press, cambridge. microsoft word 10jankovic.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 10. choosing the right axis: an institutional history of the belgrade eta forecast model1 vladimir jankovic´ centre for the history of science, technology and medicine university of manchester manchester, uk introduction since the 1950s, it has become a usual assumption to look at the dramatic developments of computing technologies as a necessary condition in the business of weather prediction; the use of high-speed state of the art computers has been repeatedly described as a foundation for solving the complex mathematics of the even more complex physics of the atmosphere. not only has the super-computer shortened the time of forecasts, it has also made an impact on theory in that it put numerical meteorology center stage. thus jule charney wrote of the “great psychological stimulus that the very possibility of high-speed computation brought to meteorology”, and akira kasahara claimed that “when it comes to the bottom line, whoever has the faster computer will win”.2 kasahara was right: the people and institutions that developed and applied numerical weather forecast have always had access to the best machines and a steady income: charney’s group worked on von neumann’s meteorology project on eniac and the ibm machines at princeton and maryland in early 1950s. thompson and platzman gave courses in numerical prediction at mit and chicago in 1953, while the main research groups included the air force cambridge laboratory, the british meteorological office, and the international meteorological institute of the university of stockholm. in russia, obukhov, buleyev and yudin worked on strela computers and kept pace with the groups on the other side of the iron curtain. an important dimension of this research was and still is numerical modelling, a cooperative (at least ideally) work and development of algorithms and models designed to solve the equations of atmospheric dynamics: and the most important moments in the development of nwp are associated with american, russian and western european research teams. the issue can be raised to what extent has this research, done as it was in the big cold-war super power countries by people like charney and arakawa, excluded (or included) work and results of other research teams, those who, for example, had inadequate computing facilities and inadequate funding resources? the question is quite proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 93 simple: if weather prediction research was a matter of expensive computer equipment and financial support – as it has been argued by those involved in it – could it be done on an as-it-were technological and financial periphery, in the countries and institutions that suffered from a chronic lack of resources? my answer to this question will be incomplete of course, as i will merely scratch the surface of one case study, the numerical weather prediction modelling in socialist federative republic of yugoslavia during 1970s and 1980s. but even with this limitation, my answer will, i hope, point to a fascinating confluence of yugoslavian weather modelling, needs of the local economy and the regional politics of knowledge. i want to show how this confluence resulted in the now one of the most skillful numerical models of weather prediction in the world, and how the model achieved such success despite the fact that it was designed in a country with erratic science funding and an inadequate computing equipment. far from saying that the success of the model was entirely due to it being made in belgrade, it is still true that the interests and the lines of research of its creators reflected priorities of local forecasting needs that, in turn, were defined by climate of yugoslavia. as we will see in more detail below, yugoslav climate is significantly influenced by the mountainous terrain of the south-west balkan peninsula and the strong cyclogenesis in the west and central mediterranean. my emphasis on local circumstances shaping yugoslav nwp – represented in research orientation, availability and quality of technologies, manpower, collaboration, and funding – is intended to alert us to the possibility that a “non-western” socio-political actors could exert enough power to shape and “customize” local scientific research. such a conclusion goes against some of the recent science and technology studies which tend to assert that the knowledge produced in less developed countries does not normally takes into account these countries economic needs: “by adopting westernized science and western organizational forms, less developed countries help to promote comparability and compatibility but not solutions to local problems”. the positive correlation between economic wealth and research productivity may indicate the fact that “only wealthy countries can support the luxury of prestigious “fundamental” research”.3 the eta research seems to contradict both claims partly because yugoslavia of the 1970s was a country that was “less developed” in a different way than india, china, or brazil and partly because the modellers acquired some of their expertise abroad. the story of eta, however, demonstrates that the precondition for “fundamental” research and high-quality weather prediction depended neither on scientific funding nor fast computers. rather, the models success could be credited to the very lack of those! early history of eta: hibu model eta model and its predecessor hibu model were created by fedor mesinger and zavisa janjic, professors and researchers at the meteorological institute of the university of belgrade. during the early 1970s, when he first thought of developing a regional model, mesinger had already been associate professor at the university of belgrade. during the 1960s, he had spent one year at the department of meteorology in darmstadt, two years in boulder at ncar, half a year in paris, and from 1967 to 1970 at ucla working with the renown numerical meteorologists akira arakawa and yule mintz, whose style of research would remain a major factor in the history of yugoslav model. co-author zavisa janjic had by the early seventies finished his graduate work under mesinger’s supervision, have spent a year in reading and had henceforth become an important force in the development of eta. clearly, mesinger’s and janjic’s was not merely a “home-grown” expertise. in belgrade, however, new priorities began to belgrade eta forecast model 94 conspire with their experience leading to a new project, a creation of a limited area model for weather prediction. belgrade in the sixties was not a major meteorological or scientific center; neither a member of warsaw pact nor nato, yugoslavia was a political island of what some described as a socialism with the human face and a leader (with india and egypt) of the so-called non-allied movement that comprised the today’s “third world”. yugoslavia was also one of the balkan countries, bordering italy in the west and bulgaria, romania and greece in the east and south. university of belgrade’s institute for meteorology was a modest outfit with half-a-dozen researchers; work on nwp was done mainly by petar gburcik, but his approach was increasingly perceived as obsolete. the federal weather bureau, where some of the early forecast were run, had an inadequate computing facilities (cdc 3600 and ibm 360/44), and the money available for research and development incomparably less than that given in the west. sometimes in the late 1960s, mesinger, the creator of the first version of the model, suggested that a limited area model could and should be developed in belgrade in order to provide reliable forecasts for yugoslavia and the region. aware of technical and institutional limitations, mesinger thought that even if the numerical resolution for a yugoslav limited area model (the resolution refers to how finely the atmospheric processes could be represented on a numerical grid) could not be better than the resolution used in the models of the major centers, “more successful design, in particular regarding aspects of special regional significance, could be expected to lead to better forecasts some of the time and hopefully when it really mattered; real-time access to inhouse nwp data offered numerous application prospects superior to those if only access to an outside center were to be relied upon”.4 in other words, in mesinger’s view, a computational insufficiency would be compensated by the ingenuity of model’s design and by the inclusion in the code of a most important parameter in yugoslavian climate – the mountains. the model is the so-called “limited area model” or “regional model” and is used to make short term – and presumably more accurate –forecasts for a limited geographic area. limited area models were in a sense a spin off of the global (hemispheric) circulation modeling; as a field of research it emerged during the late 1960s, sometimes in the form of “subprograms” of the then very prominent global atmospheric research programme (garp). if regional models – in a numerical sense – served the needs of specific regional weather services in a concrete geographic and geopolitical sense, it is worth asking what these needs were and whether they translated in the model design. could a locally constructed “limited area model” be used in regions with different forecasting requirements? and should a regional model made outside major meteorological centers, necessarily reflect the status of computing facilities available to researchers in those local centers. mountains, small computers and socialist science organization were to be the building blocks of a new model’s algorithm. how did it look? mountains and cyclones mesinger’s primary considerations in the mid-seventies was the numerical introduction of mountains and cyclones in model’s simulation. in a letter sent to a yugoslav colleague in cairo, he wrote: “i wrote a short paper on energy equations in sigma system, because, supposedly, that’s what we need with all our mountains and so djura radinovic (a collaborator at the weather bureau) and i are now doing transformations of potential into kinetic energy for that case of genoa cyclogenesis”.5 in 1971, when the organizing committee of the global atmospheric research programme proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 95 begin to establish research centers, mesinger thought the topographic simulation was an opportunity for yugoslavian researchers to carve their niche in the arena of european and american meteorology . he wrote to chairman of the yugoslavian national committee for geophysics that “many of the aims of garp are of extraordinary importance for a small country like yugoslavia , and the problems associated with the specific meteorological conditions of the country (that is, the great influence of topography) cannot be expected to be solved by other countries”. joining garp would not only give yugoslavian science an international lustre, it would enable that some of the resources of that community be used for local purposes.6 from the initial recommendation that members of wmo can submit sub-program project proposals within garp, in 1971, mesinger argued that belgrade institute should be a center for the project entitled “regional modelling in areas under significant influence of mechanical and thermal characteristics of the surface”. this document explained that the development of the numerical model for weather forecast, especially in the south-eastern europe, involved a research on problems of the influence of middlerange mountains on weather processes, thermic effects of surface ground in regional models, the problem of assimilation of initial conditions in small space ranges and the regional forecast with time-dependent boundary conditions. in 1974, after the proposal was accepted, the plans were underway to organize an international meeting on the topic in montenegro’s seaside resort st. stephan. the conference was a success: the guests included authorities such as obuhov, eliassen, and egger.7 the problems listed in mesinger’s garp proposal were those on which he and zavisa janjic worked in the early seventies. a brief history of the model runs something like this: an early version was developed by mesinger during the winter of 1973. the code is written by hand and contained about 400 lines. all subsequent versions of the code were alterations or expansions of this early versions but several principal elements of the code remained unchanged. those included arakawa’s approach to model’s dynamics, the so-called semi-staggered numerical grid and the formulation of lateral boundary conditions. in the next several years janjic had added a new scheme for horizontal advection, the conservation of energy and enstrophy; and improved on arakawa’s hydrostatic equation. early stages of the implementation of the model in the work of yugoslav federal weather bureau were carried out from 1975, and the model was operational from january 1, 1978. by this time, egypt and ireland were considering using the model for daily operational use. several moments during this period are worth emphasizing so that they can elucidate the particularities of the model: first, during their early work in the seventies, mesinger and janjic were always conscious of the need to be economical in terms of computer resources. they also knew that this economy should not be achieved at the expense of accuracy and that it was not good use of model designer’s time to be more efficient by mastering the code possibilities of the specific computer: computers being creatures of a short life span, there was no sense in making a computer-specific code. “arakawa school” that mesinger imbibed during the stay at ucla was consistent with this attitude, as it had as one of its major principles avoidance of computational modes that generated noise at the smallest scales. this principle minimized the need to have artificial smoothing mechanisms in place at these scales. smallest scales were not looked upon as a nuisance, with features to be filtered out, as many people did and still do, but scales to extract maximum benefit from that one can. mesinger thus made two important early choices that helped the efficiency of the code and that differed from the ones used at several leading centers: the choice of the arakawa’s e (or, b/e) horizontal belgrade eta forecast model 96 grid, and the choice of the split-explicit time differencing scheme, of which mesinger learned from alan gadd, at a meeting in reading, may 1973. as a result, in the midand late seventies mesinger and janjic were able to “squeeze” a decent-size, four-layer, model into an extremely small computer used at the federal weather bureau. later, when a comparison with the nested grid model (ngm), the operational lam of the u.s. national meteorological center (nmc), started to take place, the eta was in its basic numerical design more efficient by a factor of four! mesinger recently observed that this “compensated for an enormous ngm effort of extracting maximum advantage of the so-called vector-processing and special code features of the nmc's cyber computer in the mid-eighties, so that, in formal efficiency, time per number of grid points, we were not behind”.8 secondly, in 1971, mesinger pointed out the need for developing a long term project in numerical weather prediction (perhaps with belgrade’s collaboration with nsf, where such funds were available at the time). he argued that in a new model, high level atmospheric parameters would be taken as known, and the model would predict surface parameters. that way, he wrote, “it would be possible to use a known forecast from a big center and use it to make a local forecast”.9 this regional project, as the bulgarian meteorologist bojkov told mesinger, could receive up to 800.000 dollars from wmo’s development fund, but the funds were never released. nevertheless, mesinger and janjic continued to build network with other balkan researchers, hoping to establish a research center in belgrade that would include countries neighboring yugoslavia and have as its objective to develop the hibu model for the so-called routine “fine-mesh” forecasting for the region. one of the features of the model which particularly promised its regional use was its ability to correctly simulate the so-called genoa cyclogenesis, a frequently formed center of the low pressure in the italian genoa bay. the genoa lows have a powerful impact not only on the italian, but also and especially on yugoslavian and balkan weather. when in october 1976 mesinger wrote to colleagues in zagreb and boulder about janjic’s improvement in the model’s hydrostatic equation, he was excited that the simulation of genoa cyclogenesis now worked better, with cyclogenesis taking place entirely below 500 mb, which, it should be added, was a considerable improvement. during late seventies, at least two italian meteorologists took interest in hibu model, because, according to one of them, it was “the only way to achieve new results on the lee cyclogenesis problem”.10 mesinger pointed out that this was due to the fact that the model simulated the so-called “steep mountains, steeper than those one obtains by space averaging of the observed topography”. the model used these mountains to better simulate the blocking effects of real topography.11 the third and related issue associated with hibu modelling was the choice of the vertical coordinate. the vertical coordinate normally used to simulate topographic influences was the so-called sigma-coordinate, introduced by norman phillips in 1957. the sigma kept with the idea of the terrain following lowest coordinate surface, but from october 1975, mesinger and janjic saw that sigma system generated drastically unrealistic temperature forecasts (as well as other errors such as pressure gradient force, advection and lateral diffusion problems).12 they eventually showed that the pressure gradient force error was not due to calculation. in 1984, mesinger decided that a radical approach should be undertaken in entirely abandoning the sigma system (after almost 30 years of its use) and introducing the so-called eta-coordinate or eta-system which was based on the use of “step-mountains”. the coordinate surfaces in this new eta-model remained everywhere quasi-horizontal and the sigma-system errors disappeared. the introduction of the step-coordinate and eta-system was a therefore motivated by the good proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 97 results that the hibu model was already obtaining with the simulation of “steep mountains” used in genoa cyclogenesis. eta model performed with flying colors: in the parallel run of eta versus sigma for the case of genoa cyclogenesis, eta had lower noise than sigma. in the case of a 1984 appalachian storm re-development, unlike eta’s faithful simulation, neither the then operational us national meteorological center’s limited area forecast model nor the nested grid model successfully simulated the storm.13 by early 1990s, the model has been further improved at nmc washington, and was successfully implemented in the tropical forecasts, over europe and many other areas all around the world. it is operational in the us nmc (today’s ncep) since 1993. at this time, however, janjic and mesinger had secure posts at the washington’s national center for environmental prediction (formerly nmc) and their reputation grew as the model found more and more users. today, eta is operational for daily weather forecasts in belgium, brazil, egypt, finland, greece, iceland, malta, peru, south africa, tunisia, usa and yugoslavia. concluding remarks what does this brief history tell us about yugoslavian weather modelling and of scientific work in “less developed” or socialist countries? first, we should note that the success of eta did not come from the use of super-computers – on which eta did eventually run – but from a meticulous optimisation of regional weather conditions which was geared toward the needs of the country’s weather services. this optimisation involved the belgrade/arakawa “kind of efficiency”, and the better choices of numerical schemes which yielded performance benefits. second, unexpected benefits were coming from the sheer fact of doing research in 1970s yugoslavia. it is possible, as mesinger has recently done, to link the outstanding international success of eta with to the yugoslav (or perhaps, eastern european) educational context. in his opinion, yugoslav natural science education puts strong emphasis on why things work rather than on how they work, which, in mesinger’s words, “stands in stark contrast to the style i’d say is typical of universities in the [united] states as i have gotten to know it, where the emphasis was on efficiency, on a lot of homework, on doing things, on doing a lot of them, and fast. thus, we would question things which others did not, and we have taken our time to do it. this has paid off”.14 this does not mean that that yugoslav scientist in general in the 1970s put more emphasis on “fundamental” research than did their counterparts in the us or britain, but it does suggest that belgrade meteorological institute nurtured a particularly researchfriendly climate that probed into questions overlooked by the large and well-funded institutes in the west. this also means that the crucial distinction between “why” and “how” approach was not only a matter of education culture or individual inclination – in case of mesinger and janjic there was a considerable degree of “cross-pollination” between east and west european and american learning styles – but the consequence of dynamics that allowed for more research time devoted to fundamental issues. belgrade meteorologists were not pressured to produce papers to justify a research contract, which is typically achieved by running numerous experiments and writing reports. such a practice leaves only a fraction of time for looking into major and untapped problems. it is well-known, as mesinger observed, that one can hardly apply for a research contract to thinking about a problem. you apply for a research contract to do what you already know you can do. we engaged in much less activity of that kind than our counterparts at major say u.s. modelling centers; and we still could do some computing at modest computers in belgrade eta forecast model 98 belgrade… our coming from a place of modest resources, did help, in making it possible for us to do well in belgrade in the seventies, and in contributing significantly to our doing well in crucial comparisons with the ngm in the late eighties.15 endnotes 1 i greatly appreciate the help of professor fedor mesinger in my attempt to grasp the history and scientific aspects of the eta model and for giving me permission to use his correspondence. i wish to extend my gratitude to the participants of the symposium on the history of meteorology at the mexico city congress for useful comments and references. 2 quoted in frederik nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century, san diego, academic press, 1995, pp. 152, 164. 3 wesley shrum and yehouda shenhav, “science and technology in less developed countries”, in s. jassanoff et al. eds., handbook of science and technology studies, london, sage, 1995, 627-651, pp. 632, 631. 4 fedor mesinger, “limited area modelling: beginnings, state of the art, outlook”, in 50th anniversary of nwp symposium, potsdam, european meteorological society, 2000, 85-112, p. 88. 55 mesinger to vesna jurces, 23 november 1966. all correspondence is held at the hydrometeorological institute of the university of belgrade. 6 mesinger to abdulah numinagic, 28 january 1971. 7 mesinger to dusko djuric, 21 april 1976. 8 mesinger, personal communication, june 2001. 9 mesinger to dusko djuric, 16 june 1971. 10 stefano tebaldo to zavisa janjic, 5 january 1977. 11 mesinger to akira kasahara, 16 march 1977. 12 zavisa i. janjic, “the step mountain coordinate: physical package”, monthly weather review, 118 (1990), 1429-1443, p. 1429. 13 fedor mesinger et. al., “the step-mountain coordinate”, monthly weather review, 116 (1988), pp. 1493-1518. 14 mesinger, personal communication, june 2001. 15 mesinger, personal communication, july 2001. microsoft word 07cushman.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 7. enclave vision: foreign networks in peru and the internationalization of el niño research during the 1920s gregory t. cushman university of texas at austin austin, texas, usa environmental scientists in peru first attached the moniker ‘el niño’ in 1891 to a warm current running counter to the highly variable, but generally north-flowing peru current. torrential rains along the normally arid northern peruvian coast and catastrophic floods in many parts of the country captured the attention of a group of professionals incorporated by the newly founded sociedad geográfica de lima (est. 1888). one member of this group, the naval hydrographer camilo n. carrillo (18301900), noticed that the weak countercurrent known by artisanal fishermen to appear during the austral summer along the northern coast was particularly strong that year. this was just one of several phenomena that they associated with this exceptional climate event. to keep track of such changes, the sociedad organized a network of meteorological observers, including a station in lima that has since been in more-or-less continuous existence. as part of such duties, the politician víctor eguiguren compiled and published the regional oral tradition of similar climate anomalies in northern peru since 1791. in 1895, federico pezet presented a digest of this work at the sixth international geographical congress in london that underscored the links between this contracorriente el niño and torrential rains in the northern department of piura.1 in short, the ‘el niño phenomenon’ as a scientific category was born in the early 1890s. but it was seen as little more than a regional geographical curiosity by foreign scientists for many years. el niño burst onto the international scientific scene soon after the next major event in 1925-1926, thanks in large part to the work of a single scientific traveler, the u.s. ornithologist and conservationist robert cushman murphy (1887-1973). he happened to be in peru studying marine birds when this event struck. like any good environmental scientist, murphy was not satisfied with his own limited perceptions, and he rapidly organized an observation network to investigate this noteworthy climate anomaly. for this purpose, he relied mainly on reports from resident u.s. engineers, el niño research during the 1920s 66 businessmen, diplomats, and military men. his understanding of el niño was fundamentally shaped by foreign enclaves in peru. science studies (especially sociology of scientific knowledge) has focused an immense amount of attention over the last couple decades on the local social environment in which scientists operate. like the laboratory, museum, botanical garden, or scientific society, foreign enclaves provided a real geographical place “in the field” that influenced the construction of scientific knowledge. in this important historical case, i am not talking about the kind of sealed-off islands of “exact science” or colonial hygienic institutions we are used to hearing about. rather, i am focusing on foreign economic and political enclaves involved in science, places where controlled interaction between “natives” and “foreigners” was supposed to occur, though i do not want to suggest that this interaction typically occurred on anything like an equal basis.2 much less has been said about what happens to this knowledge once it leaves these contexts. what is it about scientific knowledge that enables it to move with such efficiency across great geographical and temporal distances, even broad social and cultural gulfs? knowledge of the 1925-1926 el niño phenomenon passed rapidly from peru to the united states and germany and then across the pacific because of preexisting economic and political ties between these places. intense competition for global economic hegemony--in many cases via overt imperialism--provided one major stimulus for encouraging the flow of information through these channels. the scientists involved in this exchange were intensely aware of this, yet paradoxically, they organized elaborate institutions such as the pan-pacific science congress to provide a space for the free exchange of environmental knowledge produced by these networks. in essence, the discovery--or more properly, the invention--of what we now call the el niño-southern oscillation phenomenon came about because such networks existed. the “enclave vision” that produced this discovery was inherently far-sighted, indeed globalist in its view of the world, though often imperialist in its intentions and effects. i robert cushman murphy’s position as a curator of birds at the brooklyn museum and then american museum of natural history in new york provided him with the opportunity to travel from baja california to the sub-antarctic ocean to study oceanic birds of the western hemisphere. from december 1924 to early march 1925, he happened to be in the field on his second expedition to peru when he observed dramatic changes in the coastal ecology as the “el niño countercurrent” began its onset. as a trained naturalist, he readily noticed the appearance of caimans, “man-eating sharks,” dolphin-fish, frigate birds, and several other tropical species far south of their normal range. he also noted the massive deaths of plankton, fish, and marine birds endemic to the peru current and the complete absence of sub-antarctic petrels. he took regular air and sea-surface temperatures as he toured the gulf of guayaquil in a motor launch provided by the international petroleum company (ipc), a canadian-incorporated subsidiary of standard oil of new jersey working the oil deposits of far northwestern peru and southwestern ecuador.3 as murphy slowly expanded his network of informants, he looked first to ipc managers and engineers. these foreign-born officials not only managed the activities of proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 67 an industrial establishment, but also directly governed this isolated, albeit immensely valuable territory for the peruvian state. one ipc functionary, l. m. stone--who also happened to be mayor (alcalde) of the district of máncora--provided murphy with his weather diary and the translated diary kept by the municipalidad de piura in the departmental capital. even better, two staffers of the ipc geology department, frank kroeger and e. willard berry, provided air and sea-surface temperatures from two sites. unfortunately, they installed rain gauges too late to measure directly the intense rains of march 1925, though they passed on rough quantitative estimates made by a well driller and locomotive engineer using buckets and barrels on hand. these men were fascinated by the catastrophic floods that devastated the local transport infrastructure and the social life of the few local peasants “who are not under the control of the petroleum companies”. meanwhile, these rains provided them with a brief opportunity to indulge in a north american pastime: hunters among them were delighted by the hordes of wild ducks that descended on the uncountable small lakes left by this inundation.4 murphy was apparently unaware at first of similar work being done by the german-peruvian agri-business gildemeister & co. on 1 december 1924, the general manager of gildemeister’s new port facility at puerto chicama, pieter reimers, started taking twice-daily measurements from a basic set of meteorological instruments including a sea-surface thermometer at the end of the company’s 500 meter pier--just in time to observe the onset of this el niño event. murphy only came into possession of this data set because of the intervention of the u.s. ambassador to peru miles poindexter who had his secretary harriett meek transcribe (and probably translate) data sheets that had been deposited with the sociedad geográfica de lima. puerto chicama happens to be in a good location on the north coast of peru to detect the environmental variations of significant el niño events, but more importantly, this station has operated continuously since this time, and so its single sea-surface temperature thermometer has often been used by later scientists as the quantitative definition of an el niño event.5 meanwhile, murphy’s reports sparked the interest of his friend isaiah bowman (1878-1950), the famed south american explorer who presided over the american geographical society (ags) in new york. bowman immediately offered to publish murphy’s eyewitness report. it appeared in the geographical review in january 1926 and quickly became the classic account of the “remarkable change in the customary weather of the arid west coast of south america” during the austral summer of 1925 for scientists as far away as hamburg and java. its translation and publication in two peruvian scientific journals by josé antonio de lavalle y garcía (1888-1957), one of murphy’s foremost peruvian-born collaborators, made it the classic study for readers in el niño’s homeland, as well. taken at face value, murphy’s publications seem to have relied almost entirely on data provided by a network of foreign observers in peru and ecuador. therefore, it is important to point out that murphy depended heavily for help in his research on the compañía administradora del guano, a parastatal company that managed peru’s guano-producing coastal bird colonies. in a footnote to his translation, lavalle took the opportunity to redress this slight by taking credit for accompanying murphy and influencing his understanding of the el niño phenomenon.6 bowman took the initiative to recruit other observers for murphy’s expanding network: he convinced otto holstein, a retired u.s. army major and “experienced observer” for the u.s. weather bureau, to set up a meteorological observatory at the el niño research during the 1920s 68 coastal city trujillo in 1926 using instruments supplied by the ags. they provided holstein with maximum and minimum thermometers, a sling psychrometer, rain guage, mercury barometer, barograph, hydrograph, and thermograph, thereby making the trujillo observatory one of the most advanced in peru for a brief time.7 in his reports to new york, holstein reported more than his daily observations; in fact, he organized his own elaborate network of local informants. they included beachgoers, the local port authority, ships of opportunity run by grace lines (a new york-based shipping company), the local u.s. consul, railway workers, even observers in several towns in the nearby sierra. but bowman had much bigger dreams. he envisioned an expansive network of “competent observers” in the “desert section” of south america who would provide data that could be used to predict the repetition of such climate anomalies. following murphy’s lead, he explicitly identified foreign-owned commercial enterprises as the backbone of this network, and he thought it should be administered from a central point in the united states.8 but where? ii the ambitious new administrator of the scripps institution of oceanography (sio) eagerly offered up la jolla, california, as the new metropolitan center for this network. like bowman, thomas wayland vaughan (1879-1952) had worked much of his career to build a vast scientific empire for the united states. as the autocratic director of the u.s. geological survey’s coastal plain investigations, he took the lead in extending the survey’s purview to the entire caribbean basin. even before he arrived at scripps, he had identified the pacific basin as the next frontier for u.s. science. thanks to extensive contacts with foreign scientists in europe and asia, he was intensely aware of imperialist competition for influence over this region, though the rules for building scientific prestige during this period mandated that research should be pursued by “nations acting in concert” and done for the benefit of “all mankind”.9 following the lead of colonial meteorological services on the other side of the pacific, the sio’s resident physical oceanographer george f. mcewen (1882-1972) had initiated a program in the late 1910s to provide seasonal forecasts based on physical calculation of air-sea interactions for southern california utility companies. vaughan enthusiastically promoted mcewen’s program after vilhelm bjerknes, the norwegian “father” of modern meteorology, gave his personal seal of approval. when murphy’s investigations of the 1925 el niño came to light, both vaughan and mcewen immediately recognized the potential value of far-fledged observations in the pacific for these forecasts. they could not have helped but notice the correlation between climate events in peru and california: exceptionally warm winter sea-surface temperatures off the scripps pier, major changes in the distribution of sardine and albacore tuna, and immense damage to scripps’s own physical plant caused by torrential rains and wave action.10 vaughan did not wait for the ags to give its go-ahead before he approached the u.s. office of naval intelligence for help in making contacts in south america. the secretary of the navy put vaughan in touch with the u.s. naval mission to peru and u.s. naval attaché in chile. u.s. naval officers in peru responded enthusiastically to vaughan’s request. they and their peruvian assistants initiated daily temperature measurements at five sites along the peruvian coast using calibrated thermometers proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 69 provided by scripps that had been delivered via diplomatic pouches to avoid paying import duties. the head of the u.s. naval mission also arranged to pass on coastal observations taken by the anglo-ecuadorian oil fields, ltd., in peru and ecuador.11 the u.s. naval attaché in chile, an old friend of vaughan’s with oceanographic experience from their naval service together in hawaii, utterly failed to recruit the chilean hydrographic office to vaughan and mcewen’s cause. so he turned to the captains of u.s.-owned steamship lines. they returned several sea-surface temperature transects from the new york-canal zone-valparaiso route. this officer also recruited the manager of the braden copper company to send averaged monthly temperature and precipitation records back to la jolla, though the company refused to pay to transcribe the company’s daily records.12 meanwhile, a good friend of vaughan’s at the u.s. hydrographic office put him in contact with pedro c. sánchez, an official at the mexican dirección de estudios geográficos y climatológicos at tacubaya. sánchez agreed to send articles and data tables published by his bureau to la jolla. finally, an engineer in charge of dam development for the brazilian traction, light & power co. (incorporated in toronto) became enamored with the prospects for long-range weather prediction after chatting with vaughan and mcewen during a trip to southern california. he tried to set up a corresponding southern-atlantic network of land and sea observers that would report to la jolla where one of mcewen’s disciples would develop seasonal forecasts for southeastern brazil.13 these observation networks faced a number of problems exacerbated by the immense geographical distance separating la jolla and south america: lack of continuity and consistency in reports, lost data sheets, broken or miscalibrated thermometers, confusion over the temperature scale (scripps unwisely supplied fahrenheit thermometers).14 to remedy the “scattered and incomplete” nature of this data (which makes gildemeister’s & co.’s puerto chicama continuous series from december 1924 to the present all the more remarkable, by comparison) bowman proposed “a joint expedition” to the region involving the ags and scripps institution of oceanography. this would not be “a mere dash for newspaper purposes,” but “a real scientific survey” that would put “research both in south america and the pacific . . . upon a high plane”.15 this got vaughan to thinking, and he began to make plans for a grand oceanographic voyage to the southeastern pacific modeled after the german meteor expedition to the south atlantic that would use the carnegie institute of terrestrial magnetism’s state-ofthe-art sailing ship. sadly, fire destroyed the all-wooden carnegie before vaughan could implement his plan. but he did not give up, and he and scripps staff participated in a series of small yacht expeditions to the eastern tropical pacific during the 1930s.16 but the most galling problem facing vaughan’s network had little to do with logistics. the head of the u.s. weather bureau, c. f. marvin, expressed a complete lack of interest in the data vaughan’s associates had compiled. marvin was “very skeptical of the real value and necessity of any such elaborate program” to provide marine meteorological data, since this network’s data was error prone and often discontinuous. “a few . . . observations set down in a particular way at a particular time do not represent oceanographic facts,” marvin declared. furthermore, he thought it was a “waste of labor of computation” to systematically rid them of errors “even if we had funds available,” much less publish them for international consumption. his lack of faith meant u.s. meteorologists would have little access to, much less use, for this data.17 el niño research during the 1920s 70 iii marvin was completely out of touch with the trend toward “international cooperation . . . between practically all the leading nations of the world” in marine meteorology during the 1920s.18 in fact, there were dozens of meteorologists outside the united states who were interested in data provided by the ags-sio network. the pan-pacific science congress, an international meeting modeled after the pan-american science congress, provided the main conduit for the rapid dispersal of scientific understanding of the el niño phenomenon during the 1920s. it is rather simple to explain how: both vaughan and mcewen were intimately involved with their organization, beginning with the pan-pacific science congress held at honolulu in 1920. in 1926 at the third pacific science congress in tokyo, at vaughan’s behest, mcewen presented a summary of robert cushman murphy’s work “on the currents and temperatures of the coastal waters of western south america and their inter-relations with the heavy rains in peru”. this presentation highlighted murphy’s uncertainty whether “el niño” was a “restricted coastal” phenomenon or a hemispheric “surface movement of colossal extent”.19 dutch colonial scientists in java provided an answer to this question. when he returned to batavia (now jakarta) after attending the tokyo meeting, the director of the netherlands east indies royal magnetic and meteorological observatory passed on murphy’s observations to his colleague hendrik petrus berlage, jr. (1896-1968), the son of a prominent dutch socialist architect. berlage had just taken over this colonial institution’s meteorological program from cornelis braak. braak had been working for several years to use the southern oscillation, a quasi-cyclic variation in atmospheric pressure over the south pacific, to make seasonal precipitation forecasts for the netherlands east indies. while heading the indian meteorological service, sir gilbert walker had first identified the southern oscillation when using statistical correlations between global meteorological phenomena to try to predict the indian monsoon. murphy’s work on the 1925 el niño filled in a crucial piece of the puzzle both walker and braak had been trying to solve. berlage made the crucial connection between peruvian events and climate anomalies on the other side of the pacific. he somehow obtained víctor eguiguren’s 1894 chronology of precipitation anomalies in northern peru, and he determined that they correlated almost exactly with the six-to-seven year cycle in the “east monsoon” since 1864. he announced his results at the 1929 pacific science congress held in batavia to showcase dutch colonial science.20 berlage’s discovery had immediate consequences for international el niño research. gerhard schott (1866-1961), the director of deutsche seewarte in hamburg, happened to be in attendance at the batavia congress. (deutsche seewarte was the central node of an elaborate, systematic observation network based on data provided by german “ships of opportunity,” and probably the foremost oceanographic research institution in the world at the time.) during his trip home across the pacific, schott took a detour to peru explicitly to find out more about the el niño phenomenon. in 1931, he authored a fundamental study of anomalies in the peru current that posited a physical explanation of el niño as an oceanographic phenomenon. it was quickly translated into spanish and published in peru.21 inspired by berlage’s progress, mcewen returned to his proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 71 seasonal forecasts with renewed vigor, though with declining success, and vaughan even tried to lure the meteorologist horace r. byers, one of carl-gustaf rossby’s earliest disciples at mit, to help with this work at sio. if byers had accepted vaughan’s offer, scripps might have become a center for marine meteorology almost four decades before sio finally hired its first real meteorologist, jerome namias, to work on this exact problem. meanwhile, the compañía administradora del guano in peru hired erwin schweigger, a german fishery scientist, to work on oceanographic problems; his work over the next three decades established the main empirical foundation for subsequent el niño studies in peru.22 iv in conclusion, the idiosyncracies of these networks linked to foreign enclaves laid down many of the channels and boundaries for future scientific investigation of what we now call the el niño-southern osciallation (enso) phenomenon. h. p. berlage’s ability to integrate himself into the transnational network founded by robert cushman murphy put him in the position to be the first to posit a physical relationship between these two major climatic phenomena. over thirty years later, the great norwegian-american meteorologist jacob bjerknes (1897-1975) was able to formulate a plausible physical mechanism for these phenomena because he was able to negotiate a much larger, yet basically similar set of international scientific networks. in fact, u.s. tuna fishermen, a sort of moving enclave in the eastern tropical pacific, played a pivotal role in attracting bjerknes to investigate the el niño phenomenon in the first place. bjerknes profited greatly from berlage’s decision to devote the rest of his life to investigations of the southern oscillation, though bjerknes decided to name his theory the walker circulation after the original discoverer of the southern oscillation. berlage continues to receive much less credit than he deserves for his fundamental work, partly because he remained attached to the same old approach toward meteorological cycles he helped develop in the colonial context years after other climate scientists had relegated it to the dustbin of science history. perhaps this essay only makes the rather bland observation that foreign economic and political penetration established a beachhead for meteorology and oceanography in peru. but i think this story of the internationalization of el niño research says something more about the creation and transfer--or production and trade--of scientific knowledge. modern science co-evolved with modern global networks of trade and influence characterized by immense concentrations of wealth and power. i think one of the keys to understanding the association between science and global economic and political prowess is to understand the relation of science to foreign enclaves, especially in post-colonial societies. certainly, a key to understanding the history of el niño is to understand the international networks involved in its invention as a scientific concept. el niño research during the 1920s 72 endnotes 1 camilo n. carrillo, “estudios sobre las corrientes oceánicas y especialmente de la corriente de humboldt”, boletín de la sociedad geográfica de lima, 2 (1892): 72-111; víctor eguiguren, “las lluvias en piura”, boletín de la sociedad geográfica de lima, 4 (1894): 241257; federico a. pezet, “la contracorriente ‘el niño’ en la costa norte del perú”, boletín de la sociedad geográfica de lima, 5 (1896): 457. besides appearing in the report of the 6th international geographical congress, london, john murray, 1896, the latter was abstracted in annalen der hydrographie und maritimen meteorologie, 23 (1895), p. 466. see also leoncio lópez-ocón cabrera, “el nacionalismo y los orígenes de la sociedad geográfica de lima”, in saberes andinos: ciencia y tecnología en bolivia, ecuador y perú, ed. marcos cueto, lima, instituto de estudios peruanos, 1995, pp. 109-125. 2 on the significance of place in the production of scientific knowledge, see steven shapin, “placing the view from nowhere: historical and scoiological problems in the location of science”, transactions of the institute of british geographers, n.s., 23 (1998) 1: 5-12. on the “place” of science in the field and colonial context, see henrika kuklick and robert e. kohler, eds., “science in the field”, osiris, 2d ser., 11 (1996); roy macleod, ed., “nature and empire: science and the colonial enterprise”, osiris, 2d ser., 15 (2000). 3 robert cushman murphy, “equatorial vignettes: impression of the coasts of peru and ecuador, 1925”, natural history, 25 (sept.-oct. 1925), 5: 431-449; idem, “oceanic and climatic phenomena along the west coast of south america during 1925”, the geographical review, 17 (1926), 1: 26-54; idem, oceanic birds of south america, new york, american museum of natural history, 1936, vol. 1, pp. 25-29. 4 murphy, “oceanic and climatic phenomena”, op cit, passim; e. willard berry, “meteorological observations at negritos, peru, december, 1924, to may, 1925”, monthly weather review, 55 (feb. 1927), 2: 75-79, p. 76. 5 murphy, “oceanic and climatic phenomena”, op cit, pp. 26 n. 1, 32 fig. 2; erwin schweigger, “los fenómenos en el mar de 1925 a 1941 en relación con observaciones meteorológicas efectuadas en puerto chicama”, boletín de la sociedad geográfica de lima, 59 (1942), 3: 247-258, 59 (1942), 4:267-316, pp. 247-250. 6 murphy only referred to lavalle in a footnote directing readers to “an important tabulation” of meteorological data that provided “further illustration of the normal temperature relations” on the guano islands; murphy “oceanic and climatic phenomena”, op cit, p. 26, 32, 35 n. 9; idem, “recent oceanic phenomena along the coast of south america”, monthly weather review 53 (mar. 1925), 3: 116-117, p. 117; cf. murphy, “fenómenos oceánicos y climatéricos en la costa occidenta de sur-américa durante el año 1925”, trans. josé antonio de lavalle y garcía, boletín de la compañía administradora del guano (lima), 2 (mar. 1926), 3: 137-179, boletín de la sociedad geográfica de lima, 43 (1926), 2 : 87-125. on the role of the compañía administradora del guano as a promoter of science in peru, see gregory t. cushman, “the lords of guano: scientists and the management of peru’s marine environment, 1890-1973”, ph.d. diss., university of texas at austin, forthcoming. 7 john k. wright to t. wayland vaughan, 2 july 1926, scripps institution of oceanography (sio), office of the director, vaughan, (ac 11) scripps institution of oceanography archives, university of california, san diego, la jolla, ca, box 1, fol. 22 [hereafter, vaughan papers box:folder]. 8 isaiah bowman to david white, 15 june 1926, vaughan papers 1:21. 9 vaughan to w. w. campbell, 10 aug. 1926; g. w. littlehales, “program for initial researches in the pacific ocean”, 16 jan. 1922; vaughan to f. r. lillie, 10 nov. 1927, vaughan papers 1:23, 1:1, 1:38; elizabeth n. shor, “the role of t. wayland vaughan in american proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 73 oceanography”, in oceanography: the past, ed. m. sears and d. merriman, new york, springer-verlag, 1980, pp. 127-137. 10 vaughan to crosley, 16 mar. 1927, vaughan papers 1:29; william e. ritter and george f. mcewen to melville klauber, 9 nov. 1918; beecher [sterue?] to ritter, “list of names of persons to whom seasonal forecasts have been mailed”, 16 dec. 1918; vilhelm bjerknes to vaughan, 30 sept. 1924, sio, biographical files, (ac 5) sio archives, box 10, fol. 346, 347 [hereafter, sio biographical files box:folder]; vaughan to ralph j. chandler, 23 mar. 1926; vaughan to r. g. sproul, 7 apr. 1926, vaughan papers 1:18, 1:19. cf. richard h. grove, “the east india company, the australians and the el niño: colonial scientists and ideas about global climatic change and teleconnections between 1770 and 1930”, in ecology, climate and empire: colonialism and global environmental history, 1400-1940, cambridge, uk, white horse press, 1997, pp. 125-141; lewis pyenson, empire of reason: exact sciences in indonesia, 1840-1940, leiden, e. j. brill, 1989, ch. 3; robert marc friedman, appropriating the weather: vilhelm bjerknes and the construction of a modern meteorology, ithaca, ny, cornell university press, 1989. 11 vaughan to galbraith, 22 may 1926; vaughan to david white, 28 may 1926; d. mcd. le breton to vaughan, 5 june 1926; vaughan to bowman, 11 june 1926; a g. howe to sio, 20 july 1926; a. j. hepburn to sio, 8 dec. 1926; bowman to vaughan, 7 mar. 1927; vaughan to bowman, 15 mar. 1927; charles gordon davy to vaughan, 16 apr. 1929, vaughan papers 1:20, 1:21, 1:22, 1:29, 2:58. 12 r. l. walker to vaughan, 19 nov. 1926, 26 apr. 1927, 12 nov. 1927; i. h. mayfield to vaughan, 29 may 1929, 10 june 1929, 14 june 1929, 4 sept. 1929; d. cook to vaughan, 26 nov. 1928, 14 jan. 1929, 8 july 1929, 13 may 1929, vaughan papers 1:25, 1:30, 1:38, 2:58, 2:61, 2:53, 2:55, 2:58. 13 vaughan to littlehales, 11 june 1926; vaughan to pedro c. sánchez, 23 sept. 1926; sánchez to vaughan, 5 oct. 1926; a. w. k. billings to t. w. vaughan, 7 feb. 1931, vaughan to a. w. k. billings, 9 feb. 1931, vaughan papers 1:21, 1:24, 1:25, 2:76. 14 howe to director of naval intelligence, 2 may 1927; j. s. abbott to jefe de estado mayor general, 28 may 1927, vaughan papers 1:30; nicolás zavala y zavala to director del material, 3 june 1927, vaughan papers 1:31. 15 bowman to vaughan, 15 june 1926, vaughan papers 1:21. 16 vaughan to t. h. morgan, 16 june 1928; vaughan to henry b. bigelow, 25 oct. 1928; vaughan to w. w. campbell, 9 apr. 1930; vaughan to waldo schmitt, 19 dec. 1933; schmitt to vaughan, 22 dec. 1933, vaughan papers 1:48, 1:52, 2:66, 2:97. 17 c. f. marvin to vaughan, 8 dec. 1927, vaughan papers 1:40. 18 vaughan to members of the advisory board on sio, 19 june 1928, vaughan papers 1:48. 19 vaughan to bowman, 11 june 1926, vaughan papers 1:21; murphy, “oceanographic work originating in the new york region during 1925-1926”, in proceedings of the third panpacific science congress, tokyo, october 30th-november 11th 1926, tokyo, national research council of japan, 1928, vol. 1, pp. 219-220. see also, philip f. rehbock, “organizing pacific science: local and international origins of the pacific science association”, in nature in its greatest extent: western science in the pacific, ed. roy macleod and philip f. rehbock, honolulu, university of hawaii press, 1988, pp. 195-221. 20 committee on the physical and chemical oceanography of the pacific: reports of the chairman, t. wayland vaughan, n.p., n.d. [tokyo, 1926], george francis mcewen papers, (mc 21) sio archives, box 8, fol. 1, f. 8-9, 19, 21-22; h. p. berlage, jr., “arguments for the existence of a seven-year cycle in the meteorological elements of the stations in or near the pacific el niño research during the 1920s 74 ocean”, in proceedings of the fourth pacific science congress, java, may-june 1929, batavia, bandoeng, 1930, vol. 2a, pp. 11-16; pyenson, empire of reason, ch. 3. 21 gerhard schott, “der peru-ström und seine nördlichen nachbargebiete in normaler und anormaler ausbildung”, annalen der hydrographie und maritimen meteorologie, 59 (1931): 161-169, 200-213, 240-252; idem, “la corriente del perú y sus límites norteños en condicionales normales y anormales”, boletín de la compañía administradora del guano, 9 (mar.-apr. 1933), 3-4: 65-117; idem, “conferencia del profesor gerhard schott, del observatorio marítimo de hamburgo: la circulación general de los océanos”, boletín de la sociedad geográfica de lima, 49 (1932), 3-4: 107-114. 22 horace r. byers to mcewen, 7 nov. 1930, sio biographical files 11:351; on schweigger, see cushman, “the lords of guano”, op. cit. microsoft word 03bernhardt.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 3. johann wolfgang von goethes beziehungen zu luke howard und sein wirken auf dem gebiet der meteorologie karl-heinz bernhardt leibniz-sozietät e.v. berlin, germany english summary the great german poet johann wolfgang von goethe (1749-1832) started dealing with problems of meteorology in 1815, after he had essentially finished his scientific studies in the fields of geology, mineralogy, botany, comparative anatomy, and theory of light and colors. his interest in meteorology was awakened by luke howard's (17721864) famous paper on the modifications of clouds (1803). goethe took up enthusiastically this morphological cloud classification scheme which was also used in a meteorological observation network established after 1821 under goethe's supervision in the grand duchy sachsen-weimar-eisenach. the "simple modifications" stratus, cumulus, cirrus, and nimbus as defined by howard were described by goethe in a poem written in honor of howard. it was published in german as well as in english in goethe's journal on natural sciences (1820, 1822), together with an autobiographical sketch sent by howard. later, a review of howard's book on the climate of london appeared in the same journal with special reference to the urban heat island effect described for the first time by howard. goethe, in his further meteorological studies, developed ideas of a three layer atmospheric stratification which were based upon careful cloud observations. he enlarged and refined howard's classification, for example by distinguishing between cumulus clouds with horizontal bases and ragged cumulus designated as cumulus fractus nowadays. goethe was looking for relations between cloud formation, air pressure, wind direction, precipitation and other weather phenomena. unfortunately, he made an abstruse hypothesis concerning the mechanism of pressure variations. therefore, goethe's meteorological studies were ignored widely by meteorologists, but some of his ideas in this field are reflected in his poetic work. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 29 einleitung atmosphärische phänomene so himmelsanblick und wolkengestalt, gewitter, sturm und regen nehmen im dichterischen werk johann wolfgang von goethes (17491832) von anbeginn einen bedeutenden platz ein. meteorologische erscheinungen, wie morgenund abendröte, dunst und nebelstreifen helfen in seiner lyrik, naturstimmung und seelenzustand zu charakterisieren. bildhafte, eindringliche wolkenschilderungen sind in goethes prosaschriften, briefen und reisebeschreibungen enthalten. der dichter selbst war sehr empfänglich für sinneseindrücke aus der atmosphärischen umwelt und nach eigenen zeugnissen auch hochgradig wetterfühlig. ungeachtet aber all dieser lebenslangen psychosomatischen, mentalen und künstlerischproduktiven beziehungen zu den atmosphärischen phänomenen hat sich goethe der meteorologie als wissenschaft systematisch erst jenseits des 65. lebensjahres zugewandt. dies geschah zu einer zeit, als er seine umfangreichen studien auf anderen gebieten der naturwissenschaft geologie und mineralogie, botanik, vergleichende anatomie, chemie, farbenlehre und optik im wesentlichen abgeschlossen hatte. allerdings muß auf eine stichwortsammlung goethes aus den jahren 1805-1806 für physikalische vorträge in der mittwochsgesellschaft verwiesen werden, in der unter 6 problemkomplexen das stichwort luft mit notizen wie elastische flüssigkeit, dichtigkeit, schwere, anziehung, veränderung der witterung, betrachtung des barometers ausführlich umrissen wird, die höhe der atmosphärischen luft auf 8 geogr. meilen gerechnet wird und unter verweis auf torricelli und v. guericke demonstrationsexperimente skizziert sind.1 auch finden sich bereits hinweise auf die später ausgebaute abstruse vorstellung von schwankungen der erdanziehung als ursache der luftdruckschwankungen, die goethes ideen zur meteorologie insgesamt unter den fachgelehrten so nachhaltig diskreditieren sollten. ("ungleiche anziehung der erde nicht bemerkt/ weil man keine feinen kriterien hatte. luft hierzu das geschickteste”.)2 entscheidender ausgangspunkt für goethes bis zum lebensende fortgesetzte beschäftigung mit der meteorologie aber war die bekanntschaft mit howards schrift on the modifications of clouds...3, die im jahre 1803 in den nummern 62, 64 und 65 von tilloch's philosophical magazine erschienen war und die grundlage der heutigen internationalen wolkenklassifikation bildet. goethes beziehungen zu luke howard die beziehungen von goethe zum werk und zur person des englischen apothekers, chemikers und meteorologie-autodidakten luke howard (1772-1864) können nach äußerungen in goethes schriften zur meteorologie sowie an hand von briefstellen, tagebuchaufzeichnungen und bemerkungen in seinen tagesund jahresheften rekonstruiert werden. goethe, seit dem jahre 1776 in hohen weimarischen staatsdiensten und seit 1815 staatsminister im großherzogtum sachsen-weimar-eisenach, war unter anderem gemeinsam mit christian gottlob voigt (1743-1819) für die unmittelbaren anstalten für wissenschaft und kunst in weimar und jena zuständig. im dezember 1815 machte ihn großherzog carl august, der "einen eigenen apparat zur meteorologie auf dem rücken goethes beziehungen zu luke howard 30 des ettersberges errichten" ließ4, auf einen aufsatz über die howardsche wolkeneinteilung in gilberts annalen der physik5 aufmerksam. vom 17. dezember 1817 also zwei jahre nach der ersten bekanntschaft mit der wolkenklassifikation datiert unter der überschrift camarupa eine handschriftliche "darstellung der howardischen lehre...durch gilberts annalen veranlaßt" und mit der bemerkung versehen, "es wäre zu wünschen, daß man das original auch nunmehr zu besserer einsicht erhielte".6 wann sich dieser wunsch goethes erfüllte, läßt sich exakt nicht aufklären. fest steht aber, daß goethe ebenfalls im dezember 1817 eine "instrucktion für den meteorologen des ettersberg", d. h. eine beobachtungsanleitung für das geplante stationsnetz im großherzogtum sachsen-weimar-eisenach ausarbeitete, von der bisher erst eine erweiterte fassung aus dem jahre 1821 (fälschlich auf 1817 datiert) veröffentlicht ist.7 die instruktion von 1821 enthält eine ausführliche beschreibung von howards wolkenformen in der von goethe bereits modifizierten terminologie und reihenfolge stratus, strato-cumulus, cumulus, cirro-cumulus, cirrus, strato-cirrus, nimbus. wie auch die als beispiel einer anwendung dieser instruction beigefügte tabelle meteorologischer beobachtungen an der sternwarte jena vom september 1821 ausweist, sollten bei den dreimal täglich durchzuführenden wetterbeobachtungen die auftretenden wolkenarten entsprechend dieser klassifikation festgehalten werden. das unter goethes ministerieller verantwortung errichtete netz von 9 meteorologischen beobachtungsstationen, das im wesentlichen in den jahren 1821-1831 in betrieb war, dürfte damit eines der ersten in der welt gewesen sein, in welchem regelmäßig wolkenbeobachtungen nach der howardschen klassifikation angestellt wurden. in der zwischenzeit hatte goethe 1820 in heft 3 des ersten bandes seiner zeitschrift zur naturwissenschaft überhaupt eine erläuternde schrift über die wolkengestalt nach howard veröffentlicht, die auch ein im april/mai des gleichen jahres auf einer reise nach karlsbad geführtes beobachtungstagebuch (wolkendiarium) mit nachbemerkungen sowie ein gedicht zu howards ehrengedächtnis enthielt.8 beigefügt war die darstellung einiger wolkenformen in einem kupferstich von l. heß.9 noch im gleichen jahr erhielt j. c. hüttner (1766-1847), schriftsteller und briefpartner goethes in london, diesen aufsatz und das "herrliche gedicht". in einem brief vom 23. februar 1821 erbat er dazu von goethe einige weiterführende erläuterungen für ein größeres publikum und teilte gleichzeitig mit, eine übersetzung des gedichtes, "von einem geschickten linguisten bowring verfertiget", in händen zu haben.10 mit einem antwortbrief vom 4. april 1821 hat goethe "einen versuch gemacht, wie das vermißte allenfalls nachgebracht werden könnte”.11 offensichtlich handelte es sich um die erweiterte version, in der das ehrengedächtnis zusammen mit einer weiteren würdigung des howardschen werkes ein jahr später in heft 4 des ersten bandes der zeitschrift zur naturwissenschaft überhaupt erschien.12 die an dieser stelle ebenfalls abgedruckte englische übersetzung des gedichtes war bereits 1821 im london magazine publiziert worden. die ersten drei strophen der erweiterten fassung wurden nach dem zeugnis hüttners von dem faust-übersetzer g. soane (1790-1860) ins englische übertragen.13 proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 31 goethe jedenfalls fand in einem dankschreiben an hüttner vom 25. september 1821, worin er den eingang der übersetzungen (sendungen aus london vom 5. juni und 3. juli) bestätigte, "die drey ersten strophen...ganz vollkommen verstanden und ausgedruckt”. jedoch: "bey den vier letzteren mag wohl einiges abweichen vom texte sich daher schreiben, daß der übersetzer, um gewissen schwierigen und dunkeln stellen des originals aus dem wege zu gehen, einige unsichere tritte gethan, wodurch die klarheit des ganzen etwas gefährdet ist”.14 die vier letzten strophen des gedichtes zu howards ehrengedächtnis sind im anhang zum vorliegenden beitrag in deutscher und englischer fassung wiedergegeben.15 in dem erwähnten brief vom 25. september an hüttner bat goethe schließlich, ihm von dem "noch lebenden, gefeyerten meteorologen einige kenntniß, nachricht über seine näheren verhältnisse zu geben...".16 eine bitte ganz im sinne der in anderem zusammenhang formulierten maxime goethes, wonach die geschichte der wissenschaft die wissenschaft selbst, die geschichte des individuums das individuum ist.17 dank der offenbar nicht ganz unschwierigen vermittlung durch hüttner sandte howard im februar 1822 neben einem autobiographischen abriß auch die beiden bände des climate of london (1818, 1820), die ihm die mitgliedschaft in der royal society eingebracht hatten, an goethe. dieser informierte die leser seiner reihe z u r morphologie (band 1, heft 4) über den eingang des biographischen aufsatzes (howard to goethe. a biographical sketch.)18 und veröffentlichte ihn, ins deutsche übersetzt, 1823 im band 2, heft 1 zur naturwissenschaft überhaupt.19 im gleichen heft erschien eine von goethe veranlaßte rezension des climate of london aus der feder von j. f. posselt (1764-1823), dem direktor der sternwarte zu jena.20 goethe dankte hüttner mehrfach brieflich für seine bemühungen, ließ danksagung und grüße an howard übermitteln und bekundete die absicht, ihm selbst zu schreiben bzw. "auf irgend eine schickliche weise zu seiner zufriedenheit einiges beyzutragen”.21 jedoch finden sich in goethes veröffentlichten briefen zwar auch weiterhin zahlreiche hinweise auf howard, aber kein brief an howard selbst. rezeption und modifikation der howardschen wolkeneinteilung durch goethe die wolkenklassifikation howards steht in der entwicklungslinie morphologischer, d. h. auf äußeren kennzeichen beruhender klassifikationen von naturobjekten, wie des systema naturae linnés (1735) oder der klassifikation der mineralien (1774)22 durch goethes zeitgenossen und freund abraham gottlob werner (1749-1817). howard teilte die wolken nach ihrer äußeren gestalt in die bis heute gängigen grundformen (simple modifications) cirrus, cumulus und stratus ein, denen er die intermediate modifications cirro-cumulus und cirro-stratus sowie die compound modifications cumulo-stratus und cumulo-cirro-stratus oder nimbus hinzufügte. goethe, in seiner naturbetrachtung immer vorrangig auf das dem sinne der augen erfaßliche fixiert, griff die howardsche wolkenklassifikation enthusiastisch auf, eröffnete sie ihm doch einen seiner neigung und lebensweise angemessenen zugang zur witterungskunde, den er über zahlen und zeichen nicht hatte finden können, wie er in der wolkengestalt nach howard ausführte.23 konsequenterweise verwendete er die howardschen wolkenbezeichnungen bis ans lebensende in briefen und persönlichen goethes beziehungen zu luke howard 32 aufzeichnungen, begnügte sich aber hier und besonders in seinen meteorologischen schriften keineswegs mit einer bloßen übernahme der howardschen terminologie. vor allem war es goethes anliegen, "alle naturphänomene in einer gewissen folge der entwickelung zu betrachten und die übergänge vorund rückwärts aufmerksam zu begleiten”.24 in diesem sinne beschreiben die wolken-strophen des gedichtes howards ehrengedächtnis (s. anhang) gewissermaßen eine metamorphose der wolken vom aufsteigen des wassers in der atmosphäre bis zum ausregnen, zugleich steigerung und polarität nach goethe die großen triebräder aller natur25 als zentrale kategorien in goethes naturphilosophie widerspiegelnd. in der gleichen reihenfolge wie in dem gedicht werden die wolkenformen allerdings unter hinzufügung der zwischenformen auch in den bereits zitierten texten camarupa (1817), wolkengestalt nach howard (1820) und in der beobachtungsinstruktion (1821) abgehandelt: stratus strato-cumulus cumulus cirrocumulus cirrus strato-cirrus nimbus. diese reihenfolge entspricht nach goethes vorstellungen zugleich einer höhengliederung, über die er sich teilweise detailliert äußerte. hatte howard den stratus als "a widely extented, continous, horizontal sheet, increasing from below" definiert und ausgeführt: "it is the lowest of clouds, since its inferior surface commonly rests on the earth or water"26, so schrieb goethe über den stratus: "von dem nebelstreif an, der sich vom sumpf oder feuchten wiesen erhebt,... bis zu den streifen und schichten welche teils die seiten der berge, teils ihre gipfel bedecken, kann alles mit diesem namen bezeichnet werden”. 27 goethe faßte also, ganz im sinne der späteren entwicklung der von howard begründeten wolkenklassifikation, den begriff des stratus weiter als howard selbst, dessen beschreibung sich in erster linie auf die sehr niedrig gelegenen bzw. sogar als hochnebel der erdoberfläche aufliegenden schichtwolken bezog. howards bildliche darstellung des stratus (plate vi, c)28 zeigt einen talnebel, aus dem ein baumbestandener hügel herausragt, während goethe auf dem im abschnitt 2 erwähnten kupferstich als stratus eine wolkenbank an einem berghang darstellen lassen hat. für goethes auffassung des stratus spielten offensichtlich seine beobachtungserfahrungen in den schweizer alpen eine rolle, auf die er sich explizit bezog. dies gilt auch für seine bemerkung über den stratus, die "horizontalgelagerten wolken" könnten "diese form nur bis auf eine gewisse atmosphärische höhe behalten", die er zu "nicht über 1200 toisen,..., höchstens bis an unsere schneelinie",29 d. h. ca. 2400 m schätzte, was den tatsächlichen verhältnissen ziemlich nahekommt. gewichtiger als dieser auffassungsunterschied ist goethes einführung des stratocumulus in die howardsche terminologie zu werten. howard hatte den cumulostratus beschrieben als "the cirro-stratus blended with the cumulus, and either appearing intermixed with the heaps of the latter or superadding a wide-spread structure to its base”. zumindest der erste teil dieser beschreibung bezieht sich eindeutig auf die heute als cumulonimbus bezeichnete gattung. das wird auch aus einer anderen passage zum cumulo-stratus bei howard deutlich: "when the cumulus increases rapidly, a cirrostratus is frequently seen to form around its summit... in either case a large lofty dense cloud is formed, which may compared to a mushroom....". plate vii, c, c zu howards aufsatz30 bestätigt diese auffassung. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 33 auch in den zeitgenössischen meteorologischen lehrbüchern von heinrich wilhem brandes (1777-1834)31 und ludwig friedrich kämtz (1801-1867)32 wird der cumulo-stratus noch als "gethürmte haufenwolke" geführt. demgegenüber hat goethe nicht nur offenbar als erster autor die bezeichnung stratocumulus eingeführt, sondern auch diese häufig auftretende wolkengattung im heutigen sinne beschrieben und in dem weiter oben erwähnten kupferstich darstellen lassen. in camarupa beschreibt goethe die entwicklung des stratocumulus aus dem stratus:" wir sehen daher unterwärts die wolke noch streifenund schichtenweise horizontal schweben, aufwärts aber entwickeln sich gedrängte, geballte massen in vertikaler richtung nach der höhe. stratocumulus heißt diese erscheinung,..., wenn nämlich beide wolkenbestimmungen, der schon abgehandelte stratus und der folgende cumulus, noch zusammenhängen und keine absonderung zwischen ihnen stattfindet”.33 bislang wird in den darstellungen zur geschichte der wolkenklassifikation der eigenständige beitrag goethes ignoriert und die einführung der gattung stratocumulus kämtz zugeschrieben und auf 1840 oder 1845 datiert. es erscheint aber nicht ausgeschlossen, daß kämtz dazu sogar durch die kenntnis der goetheschen schriften angeregt worden ist, erwähnte er doch im ersten band seines lehrbuchs die ebenfalls von goethe vorgeschlagene wolkenform paries (die wand),34 die sich allerdings zu recht nicht eingebürgert hat. wolkenklassifikation und schichtenbau der atmosphäre wie wir bereits gesehen haben, spielte in der rezeption der howardschen wolkeneinteilung durch goethe die höhengliederung des wolkenreiches eine besondere rolle. im weiteren gewann goethe aus wolkenbeobachtungen einen ansatz zur empirischen begründung eines schichtenbaus der atmosphäre, wie er in spekulativer weise schon seit der meteorologie des aristoteles postuliert worden war. in diesem sinne meinte goethe im versuch einer witterungslehre, der 1825 fertiggestellt, zu seinen lebzeiten aber nicht mehr veröffentlicht wurde: "der aufmerksame beobachter der witterungsbegebenheiten wird von vielen seiten her auf den gedanken getrieben: die den erdball umgebende atmosphäre nehme nicht nur, wie das barometer ausweist, von der meeresfläche aufwärts an dichtigkeit, schwere, elasticität in stetiger folge nach und nach ab, hinunterwärts aber zu, sondern es seien eben in diesem atmosphärischen raume gewisse geheime, concentrische kreise abgeschlossen, die sich, als besonders geeigenschaftet, gelegentlich manifestiren.... dergleichen atmosphärische kreise lassen sich auch aus der wolkengestaltung vermuthen; sehr selten wird ein cumulus bei uns an seinem untern rande geballt oder in einiger auszackung gebildet erscheinen, vielmehr legt er sich gewöhnlich flach und ruht mit einer stratusähnlichen basis gleichsam auf einem fremdartigen schwereren elemente, das ihn zu einer horizontalen gestaltung nöthigt; so wie umgekehrt in einer gewissen höhe, etwa zwei tausend fuß über der meeresfläche, der cumulus unten wie oben ausgezackt ist”.35 bemerkenswert ist der hinweis auf den unten wie oben ausgezackten cumulus, den cumulus fractus der heutigen internationalen wolkenklassifikation, als fractocumulus erst im jahre 1863 von poey beschrieben,36 den goethe dem cumulus mit horizontaler unterseite gegenüberstellt. die angabe von 2000 fuß rund 600 m als goethes beziehungen zu luke howard 34 ungefähre höhengrenze, die beide cumulusformen voneinander trennt, ist mit modernen wolkenhöhenstatistiken durchaus vereinbar und wirft die frage nach der herkunft von goethes wolkenhöhenangaben auf. immerhin bemerkte kämtz im lehrbuch der meteorologie noch im jahre 1831 über die wolkenhöhen, es gäbe "keinen einzigen gegenstand der ganzen meteorologie, vielleicht der ganzen naturlehre, über welchen wir so wenig numerische resultate besitzen”.37 aus einer späteren eintragung goethes in eine bildliche darstellung, die er nach einer mitteilung alexander von humboldts (1769-1859) zu einer geographie der pflanzen, nebst einem naturgemälde der tropenländer im jahre 1807 angefertigt hatte, erhellen die vorstellungen des dichters über wolkenhöhen: bis zu 1200 toisen (ca. 2400 m) für den stratus, 1200 2200 toisen (ca. 2400 4400 m) für den cumulus, 2200 3500 toisen (ca. 4400 7000 m) für den cirrus, während ein abregnender nimbus in einer schicht von 450 bis 1000 toisen (ca. 900 2000 m) plaziert ist.38 vermutlich gehen diese höhenangaben auf wolkenbeobachtungen goethes in gebirgsgegenden zurück, so auf seinen schweizerund italienreisen und auf den fahrten in die böhmischen bäder. allerdings schreibt kämtz, daß der bereits erwähnte posselt häufiger gesprächsund korrespondenzpartner goethes, zahlreiche wolkenhöhenbestimmungen nach der von jacob bernoulli (1654-1705) vorgeschlagenen dämmerungsmethode vorgenommen habe.39 ob messungen dieser art goethe bekannt waren, ist bislang ungeklärt. wie dem auch sei, goethe bemerkte, "daß die verschiedenen atmosphärischen etagen auf wasserbildung und verneinung, auf wolkengestaltung, auf das niedergehen derselben als regen oder ihre auflösung zu schäfchen, einen verschiedenen bezug haben”.40 die zuordnung des in moderner terminologie hydrologischen zyklus in der atmosphäre zu den wolkenetagen hatte er bereits in seiner schrift aus dem jahre 1820 vorgenommen, in der er "in übereinstimmung mit männern, welche die sache bisher bearbeitet”, die existenz von drei "luft-regionen, die obere, mittlere und untere, welcher man die vierte, die unterste, noch hinzufügen kann", annahm. in die obere region, die sich durch trockenheit manifestiere, gehörten alle cirrusarten; "die mittlere region ist die des cumulus", in der der "conflict" zwischen oberer und unterer luftregion bzw. der erde bereitet werde, während der stratus wie der ausregnende nimbus der unteren schicht angehören, "welche die dichteste feuchtigkeit an sich zu ziehen und in fühlbaren tropfen darzustellen geneigt ist”. aus der naturbeobachtung, dem studium von wolkengestalt und wolkenentwicklung also schloß goethe auf eine feuchte, zu schichtwolkenbildung, nebel und niederschlagsausfall neigende untere und eine trockene, zum zerfasern und zerfließen der wolken tendierende obere atmosphäre. die in der zwischenschicht angeordneten haufenwolken widerspiegeln in ihrer entwicklung den kampf, den conflict zwischen oberer und unterer luftregion, der für goethe ausdruck naturimmanenter polarität gewesen sein dürfte: "gewinnt nun die obere region...die oberhand, so werden diese geballten massen an ihrem obern saum aufgelöst, aufgezupft; sie ziehen sich flockenweise in die höhe und erscheinen als cirrus und verschwinden zuletzt...überwindet nun aber die untere region..., so senkt sich die horizontale basis des cumulus nieder, die wolke dehnt sich zum stratus...und stürzt endlich im regen zu boden, welche erscheinung zusammen nimbus genannt wird”.41 proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 35 als sorgfältigem beobachter konnte goethe die veränderlichkeit der wolkenhöhen nach ort und zeit nicht verborgen bleiben, wobei er als einflußfaktoren jahreszeit, polhöhe (d. h. geographische breite) und bergeshöhe explizit anführte, ohne dabei zu übersehen, daß aber "im ganzen...diese wolkengestalten immer stufenweise übereinander" angeordnet bleiben, der an hand der wolkenstockwerke erschlossene schichtenbau der atmosphäre also ungeachtet der höhenänderung der einzelnen schichten in seinen grundzügen unveränderlich ist.42 luftdruck, temperatur und wind in goethes witterungslehre wie goethes wolkendiarium aus dem jahre 1820 und zahlreiche weitere tagebuchnotizen und reiseberichte zeigen, verfolgte er aufmerksam das wettergeschehen und suchte es vom standpunkt seiner vorstellungen über die luftregionen und deren conflicte zu interpretieren. dabei galten ihm durchaus im sinne der zeitgenössischen meteorologie luftströmung und luftdruck als bestimmende elemente. so bemerkte er bereits in der wolkengestalt nach howard "den hauptpunkt, daß der sieg der oberen region, die herrschaft der trocknis, durch den ostwind und dem ihm zugetheilten nordwind, der sieg der untern region, der sich auf die erde beziehenden feuchte, durch den westund den ihm verbündeten südwind angedeutet, begleitet und bewirkt werde”.43 und in bezug auf den luftdruck postulierte er, daß die herrschaft der obern region durch die "größte barometerhöhe offenbart" werde, wobei wir uns eines schönen, beständigen wetters erfreuen, und "der himmel ist klar, in gewissen weltgegenden ganz wolkenlos und hochblau”.44 die himmelsfarbe als indikator für die in der luft enthaltenen dünste spielt in goethes meteorologischen schriften, von camarupa bis zum versuch einer witterungslehre, durchgängig eine rolle. in der im zweiten abschnitt erwähnten beobachtungsanleitung für das stationsnetz im großherzogtum sachsen-weimar -eisenach wurde auch die bestimmung der himmelsfarbe mittels des cyanometers vorgeschrieben.45 hatte goethe im vorwort zur wolkengestalt nach howard noch von seinem bestreben berichtet, "die bezüge der atmosphärischen und irdischen erscheinungen mit barometer und thermometer in einklang zu setzen",46 so suchte er später vor allem die entwicklung der wolkengestalt mit dem luftdruckverlauf zu parallelisiren. das entsprach dem im versuch einer witterungslehre eingenommenen standpunkt, den "barometerstand als hauptphänomen, als grund aller wetterbetrachtungen" anzusehen.47 war diese betrachtungsweise mit dem stand der meteorologie jener zeit durchaus vereinbar, so war goethes erklärung der luftdruckschwankungen aus schwankungen der schwerkraft von vornherein abwegig. dies folgt allein aus der elementaren überlegung, daß schwankungen der erdanziehung, wenn es sie gäbe, in gleichem maße das gewicht der atmosphärischen luft wie das gewicht der flüssigkeitssäule im quecksilberbarometer verändern müßten, so daß durch änderungen der schwerkraft verursachte luftdruckschwankungen mittels des quecksilberbarometers, auf das sich goethe allein bezog, gar nicht nachweisbar wären. goethe wurde zu seiner hypothese einer pulsierenden schwerkraft offenbar durch fehlinterpretierte beobachtungen von wolkenbewegungen im gebirge (1786) angeregt.48 goethes beziehungen zu luke howard 36 später hat er diese vorstellungen, wie bereits in abschnitt 1 erwähnt, in den notizen für seine physikalischen vorträge in der mittwochsgesellschaft (1805/06) umrissen und im ersten heft des zweiten bandes zur naturwissenschaft überhaupt (1823) publiziert.49 die ausführliche darstellung im versuch einer witterungslehre aus dem jahr 1825 wurde erst posthum der öffentlichkeit zugänglich. 50 bei der systematischen beschäftigung mit der hypothese von der tellurischen ursache der luftdruckschwankungen, die nach gesprächsnotizen, eintragungen in den tagesund jahresheften und zahlreichen briefstellen in der zweiten hälfte des jahre 1822 einsetzte, spielte die ähnlichkeit des luftdruckverlaufs über größeren gebieten eine wichtige rolle. aus diesem grunde bemühte sich goethe sehr um die beschaffung gleichzeitiger barometerbeobachtungen an weit voneinander entfernten stationen. wenn auch seine hypothese ihren ursprung in spekulativer ganzheitlicher naturauffassung haben mochte und er sie später als ausdruck des naturphilosophischen prinzips der polarität interpretierte, so suchte goethe in bezug auf die vorstellung vom tellurischen ursprung der luftdruckschwankungen intensiv nach einer bestätigung durch beobachtungen, also mit den hilfsmitteln der empirischen naturforschung. daß er so eine physikalisch unhaltbare annahme zu stützen suchte, ist um so bedauerlicher, als goethe, anders als in anderen naturwissenschaften, auf dem gebiet der meteorologie die notwendigkeit exakter messungen über die bloße sinneswahrnehmung hinaus akzeptierte und mit dem luftdruck ein element in den mittelpunkt seiner witterungslehre stellte, das nur durch physikalische messungen ermittelt werden kann! allerdings hat goethe seine hypothese vom ursprung der luftdruckschwankungen mit gewisser zurückhaltung formuliert, an einigen stellen auch als vorläufig betrachtet und sie insbesondere öffentlich nicht mit der gleichen entschiedenheit vertreten wie beispielsweise seine vorstellungen zur farbenlehre oder die einseitige parteinahme für den neptunismus. desungeachtet hat die unselige vorstellung einer pulsierenden schwerkraft als ursache der luftdruckschwankungen die rezeption der goetheschen schriften zur meteorologie durch die fachvertreter weithin behindert und bis zu ungerechtfertigt pauschaler ablehnung geführt. so erklärte ertel 1953 goethes hypothese allein aus dem geist der deutschen spekulativen naturphilosophie entsprungen und den versuch einer witterungslehre zu einer "dichtung ohne wahrheit".51 schon 1932 hatte ficker behauptet, goethe habe "vom wesen des luftdrucks keine genaue vorstellung gehabt"52 und in seinem system alle temperaturvorgänge vernachlässigt. beide behauptungen sind nach einem studium der schriften goethes nicht aufrechtzuerhalten. zur rolle der temperaturunterschiede sei speziell auf die aus goethes nachlaß veröffentlichte notiz zur winderzeugung vom 20. oktober 1829 verwiesen,53 in der eingangs festgestellt wird, daß "speziell erwärmte gegenden...luftzug" hervorbringen, "wodurch die richtung des rauches und der windfahnen unregelmäßig verändert werden”. nach einem hinweis auf den luftzug im erwärmten marienbader tal nach heutigem verständnis eine lokale thermische zirkulation! bemerkt goethe, daß "weiter hinab...die nach und nach erwärmte stadt einen luftzug" verursacht. offenkundig haben wir hier eine frühe, nur aus der beobachtung der rauchfahnen abgeleitete beschreibung einer lokalen luftzirkulation über einem stadtgebiet vor uns: "dergleichen wird hauptsächlich bei völlig klarem himmel und ungestörter sonnenwirkung bemerkt", stellt der dichter völlig zutreffend fest! proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 37 im kontext unseres vortragsthemas ist anzumerken, daß luke howards climate of london, dessen rezension durch posselt goethe veranlaßt hat (vgl. abschnitt 2), heute als frühestes beispiel für den nachweis einer städtischen wärmeinsel durch systematische temperaturmessungen gilt: "but the temperature of the city is not to be considered as that of the climate; it partakes too much of an artificial warmth, induced by its structure, by a crowed population and the consumption of great quantities of fuel", hatte howard im zweiten band seines werkes (1820) bemerkt, zitiert nach chandler, der howard als "pioneer of urban climate studies" würdigte 54. man darf wohl annehmen, daß goethe diesen auch in der posseltschen rezension hervorgehobenen wärmeinseleffekt eines stadtgebietes gekannt hat. meteorologie in goethes poetischem werk auswirkungen von goethes eigenständiger rezeption der howardschen wolkeneinteilung und seiner daran anknüpfenden ideen zum schichtenbau der atmosphäre scheinen explizit nicht nachweisbar. im zusammenhang mit der hypothese vom ursprung der luftdruckschwankungen in pulsationen der erdschwere verfielen goethes meteorolgische schriften vielfach einer ungerechtfertigt pauschalen ablehnung seitens der fachgelehrten. unübersehbar sind demgegenüber die spuren, die goethes naturwissenschaftliche studien zur meteorologie in seinem dichterischen spätwerk hinterlassen haben. so sind in der hochgebirgsszene zu beginn des vierten aktes von faust, der tragödie zweiter teil deutlich elemente der goetheschen wolkenund witterungslehre verarbeitet, wie schon lohmeyer55 und schöne56 im einzelnen ausgeführt haben. in der abschließenden bergschluchtenszene des fünften aktes endlich repräsentieren pater profundus (tiefe region), pater seraphicus (mittlere region) und die engel (schwebend in der höhern atmosphäre, faustens unsterbliches tragend) eine gliederung der himmelswelt völlig analog den von goethe postulierten drei luftregionen. in einer neueren goethe-ausgabe wird dies in den erläuterungen zu faust ii an hand des kupferstiches von l. heß aus der wolkengestalt nach howard anschaulich verdeutlicht.57 wegen weiterer bezüge auf meteorologische phänomene in goethes alterslyrik, so im umfeld der späten karlsbader reisen (1823), der marienbader elegie (1823) und der dornburger gedichte (1828) muß auf eine im druck befindliche arbeit des verfassers58 verwiesen werden. hier sei nur festgehalten, daß bei der erwähnung meteorologischer erscheinungen im verlaufe des künstlerischen schaffensprozesses goethes zur bloßen, wenn auch meisterhaften poetischen beschreibung mehr und mehr naturwissenschaftliche überlegungen im sinne seiner wolkenund witterungslehre hinzutreten. auch dieses detail bestätigt die von dietze59 nachdrücklich verfochtene these vom unzertrennlichen künstlerischen und wissenschaftlichen schöpfertum des großen deutschen dichters. goethes beziehungen zu luke howard 38 anhang auszug aus goethes gedicht howards ehrengedächt excerpt from goethe's poem in honour of howard stratus wenn von dem stillen wasserspiegel-plan ein nebel hebt den flachen teppich an, der mond, dem wallen des erscheins vereint, als ein gespenst gespenster bildend scheint dann sind wir alle, das gestehn wir nur, erquickt', erfreute kinder, o natur! dann hebt sich's wohl am berge, sammlend breit an streife streifen, so umdüstert's weit die mittelhöhe, beidem gleich geneigt, ob's fallend wässert, oder luftig steigt. stratus when o'er the silent bosom of the sea the cold mist hangs like a strech'd canopy; and the moon, mingling there her shadowy beams, a spirit, fashioning other spirits seems; we feel, in moments pure and bright as this, the joy of innocence, the thrill of bliss. then towering up the darkening moutain's side, and spreading as it rolls its curtains wide, it mantles round the mid-way height, and there it sinks in water-drops, or soars in air. cumulus und wenn darauf zu höhrer atmosphäre der tüchtige gehalt berufen wäre steht wolke hoch, zum herrlichsten geballt, verkündet, festgebildet, machtgewalt, und was ihr fürchtet und wohl auch erlebt wie's oben drohet, so es unten bebt. cumulus still soaring, as if some celestial call impell'd it to yon heaven's sublimest hall; high as the clouds, in pomp and power arrayed, enshrined in strength, in majesty displayed; all the soul's secret thoughts it seems to move, beneath it trembles, while it frowns above. cirrus doch immer höher steigt der edle drang! erlösung ist ein himmlisch leichter zwang. ein aufgehäuftes, flockig löst sich's auf, wie schäflein tripplend, leichtgekämmt zu hauf. so fließt zuletzt was unten leicht entstand dem vater oben still in schoß und hand. cirrus and higher, higher yet the vapours roll: triumph is the noblest impulse of the soul! then like a lamb whose silvery robes are shed, the fleecy piles dissolv'd in dew-drops spread; or gently wafted to the realms of rest, find a sweet welcome in t h e f a t h e r 's breast. nimbus nun laßt auch niederwärts, durch erdgewalt herabgezogen was sich hoch geballt, in donnerwettern wütend sich ergehn, heerscharen gleich entrollen und verwehn!der erde tätig-leidendes geschick!doch mit dem bilde hebet euren blick: die rede geht herab, denn sie beschreibt, der geist will aufwärts, wo er ewig bleibt. nimbus now downwards by the world's attraction driven, that tends to earth, which had upris'n to heaven; threat'ning in the mad thunder-cloud, as when fierce legions clash, and vanish from the plain; sad destiny of the troubled world! but see, the mist is now dispersing gloriously: and language fails us in its vain endeavour the spirit mounts above, and lives for ever. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 39 endnotes 1 goethe, die schriften zur naturwissenschaft, vollständige mit erläuterungen versehene ausgabe im auftrage der deutschen akademie der naturforscher leopoldina (leopoldina-ausgabe), i. abteilung, texte band 11, weimar, hermann böhlaus nachfolger, 1970, s. 74-79. 2 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/11, 1970, s. 74-75. 3 luke howard, on the modifications of clouds, and on the principles of their production, suspension, and destruction (1803). in: gustav hellmann, neudrucke von schriften und karten über meteorologie und erdmagnetismus, no. 3, berlin, 1884, s. 332. 4 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/8, 1962, s. 73. 5 ludwig gilbert, "versuch einer naturgeschichte und physik der wolken, von luke howard, esq., zu plaistow bei london; frei bearbeitet von l. gilbert", annalen der physik, 51 (neue folge 21) (1815), 9: 1-48. 6 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/11, 1970, s. 194-199. 7 goethes werke, herausgegeben im auftrage der großherzogin sophie von sachsen (weimarer ausgabe), abtheilung ii, band 12, weimar, hermann böhlaus nachfolger, 1896, s. 203-226. zur frage der datierung vergleiche man auch: gisela nickel, "neues von 'camarupa'. zu goethes frühen meteorologischen arbeiten", goethejahrbuch, 117 (2000): 118-125, s. 119-120. 8 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/8, 1962, s. 73-93. 9 ibid., nach s. 80. 10 goethes werke, weimarer ausgabe, op. cit., iv/34, 1905, s. 366. 11 ibid., iv/34, 1905, s. 182. 12 ibid., i/8, 1962, s. 233-240. 13 ibid., iv/35, 1906, s. 339. 14 ibid., iv/35, 1906, s. 109. 15 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/8, 1962, s. 234-237. 16 goethes werke, weimarer ausgabe, op. cit., iv/35, 1906, s. 109. 17 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/8, 1962, s. 157. 18 ibid., i/9, 1954, s. 264-265. 19 ibid., i/8, 1962, s. 285-295. 20 ibid., i/8, 1962, s. 320-321. 21 goethes werke, weimarer ausgabe, op. cit., iv/35, 1906, s. 281. 22 abraham gottlob werner, von den äußerlichen kennzeichen der foßilien, leipzig, 1774. 23 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/8, 1962, s. 74. 24 ibid., i/8, 1962, s. 74. 25 goethe-wörterbuch, herausgegeben von der deutschen akademie der wissenschaften zu berlin, der akademie der wissenschaften in göttingen und der heidelberger akademie der wissenschaften, erster band, teilband 2, stuttgart, verlag w. kohlhammer gmbh, 1970, s. 1025. 26 howard, on the modifications of clouds, op. cit., s. 5, 8. 27 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/11, 1970, s. 194. 28 howard, on the modifications of clouds, op. cit., nach s. 32. 29 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/11, 1970, s. 194. 30 howard, on the modifications of clouds, op. cit., s. 5-6, 10 und nach s. 32. 31 heinrich wilhelm brandes, beiträge zur witterungskunde, leipzig, 1820, s. 288-289. goethes beziehungen zu luke howard 40 32 ludwig friedrich kämtz, lehrbuch der meteorologie, band 1, halle, 1831, s. 379. 33 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/11, 1970, s. 195. 34 kämtz, lehrbuch, op. cit., s. 390. 35 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/11, 1970, s. 250-252. 36 henry helm clayton, "discussion of cloud observations", annals of harvard college observatory, 30 (1896), iv: 279-331, s. 284. 37 kämtz, lehrbuch, op. cit., s. 384. 38 goethes werke, weimarer ausgabe, op. cit., ii/12, 1896, s. 240. man vergleiche auch gisela nickel, "höhen der alten und neuen welt bildlich verglichen". eine publikation goethes in bertuchs verlag, in: gerhard r. kaiser und siegfried seifert (hrsg.), friedrich justin bertuch (1747-1822). verleger, schriftsteller und unternehmer im klassischen weimar, tübingen, max niemeyer verlag, 2000, s. 683. 39 kämtz, lehrbuch, op. cit., s. 383. 40 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/11, 1970, s. 252. 41 ibid., i/8, 1962, s. 89-90. 42 ibid., i/8, 1962, s. 91. 43 ibid., i/8, 1962, s. 92. 44 ibid., i/8, 1962, s. 90. 45 goethes werke, weimarer ausgabe, op. cit., ii/12, 1896, s. 211, 226. 46 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/8, 1962, s. 74. 47 ibid., i/11, 1970, s. 246. 48 goethes werke, weimarer ausgabe, op. cit., i/30, 1903, s. 18-20. 49 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/8, 1962, s. 321-330. 50 ibid., i/11, 1970, s. 246-250, 259-268. 51 hans ertel, "entwicklungsphasen der geophysik", deutsche akademie der wissenschaften, vorträge und schriften 52 (1953): 3-24, s.19. 52 heinrich v. ficker, "bemerkungen über goethes 'versuch einer witterungslehre'", sitzungsberichte der preußischen akademie der wissenschaften, physikalisch-mathematische klasse, (1932), vi: 47-52, s. 49. 53 goethe, leopoldina-ausgabe, op. cit., i/11, 1970, s. 304. 54 tony john chandler, the climate of london, london, hutchinson & co ltd, 1965, s. 126. 55 karl lohmeyer, "das meer und die wolken in den beiden letzten akten des 'faust'", jahrbuch der goethe-gesellschaft, 13 (1927): 106-133. 56 albrecht schöne, "über goethes wolkenlehre", jahrbuch der akademie der wissenschaften göttingen für das jahr 1968, (1969): 26-48. 57 goethe, sämtliche werke, abteilung i, band 7/2, frankfurt/main, deutscher klassiker verlag, 1994, abbildung 16 nach seite 1068. 58 karl-heinz bernhardt, "goethe, die meteorologie und kein ende?", sitzungsberichte der leibniz-sozietät, 42 (2000), 7: im druck 59 walter dietze, "johann wolfgang goethe thesen zur diskussion 1982", akademie der wissenschaften der ddr, aus der arbeit von plenum und klassen, 6 (1981), 6: 1-393, s. 85. corresponding author fiona williamson, singapore management university, fwilliamson@smu.edu.sg a question of scale: making meteorological knowledge and nation in imperial asia fiona williamson and vladimir janković introduction this special issue of history of meteorology explores processes of making, communicating, and embedding modern meteorological knowledge in late nineteenth and early twentieth century imperial asia. its focus is on the institutionalisation of meteorology in key nation-building activities such as developing agricultural services, synoptic mapping to predict storms, and participation in scientific organisations and initiatives. collectively, the essays explore the intersection of local, regional, and international scales and processes in generating new forms of state-sponsored meteorological practices and institutions, though complex multilayered networks involving different actors and modes of information flow across multiple scales. in so doing, they reveal the dynamism and mobility of people, objects, inscriptions, information, careers, ways of knowing, and so on across space and place. they build from the paradigm that mastering the means of understanding and—significantly—making use of the weather in asia involved working with manifold modes of meteorological knowledge drawn from multiple origins. thanks to the efforts of many scholars in the history of science, it is now generally accepted that knowledge is not produced within national borders but shaped by global trends, local information and needs, and relationships between scientific organisations and people, often across vast geographic and cultural regions and traditions.1 in the history of meteorology, however, such trends have only more recently been explored.2 the scholarship has generally been western in theme and, although often ground-breaking in its own right, perspectives and explorations of meteorological practices have been primarily confined to european or 1 kapil raj, relocating modern science: circulation and the construction of knowledge in south asia and europe, 1650– 1900 (basingstoke: palgrave macmillan, 2007); david n. livingstone, putting science in its place: geographies of scientific knowledge (chicago, il: university of chicago press, 2003). 2 deborah r. coen, climate in motion: science, empire and the problem of scale (chicago university press, 2018); martin mahony and angelo matteo caglioti, “introduction to relocating meteorology,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 1–14; zhenghong chen, guifang yang, and robert a. l. wray, “shiyan tao and the history of indigenous meteorology in china,” earth sciences history 33, no. 2 (2014): 346–60; masumi zaiki and togo tsukahara, “meteorology on the southern frontier of japan’s empire,” east asian science, technology and society 1, no. 2 (2007): 183–203; vladimir janković, “science migrations: mesoscale weather prediction from belgrade to washington, 1970–2000,” social studies of science 34, no. 1 (2004): 45–75; a. udías, searching the heavens and the earth: the history of jesuit observatories (dordrecht/boston/london: kluwer academic publishers, 2003). mailto:fwilliamson@smu.edu.sg history of meteorology 9 (2020) 2 american contexts.3 whilst this collection of essays does not seek to overturn this trend, it does aim to delve a little deeper into asian stories to reveal meteorological science as a more globally-distributed scientific practice, ultimately demonstrating the complex origins of its adoption and modernisation in asia.4 although western imperialism did play a significant role in facilitating and distributing knowledge in asia, the binary disjunct that western narratives have raised has obscured the fact that modern meteorology was the sole property neither of western actors nor of colonial needs. asian interests and demands, public opinion, and asiabased scientists and scientific networks were critical. western-centric narratives have also left gaps in considering how asian imperialism drove scientific endeavour, despite the similarity of motives behind using meteorology as a state-advancing tool. japan, for example, began its own program modernisation in the mid-nineteenth century, establishing research stations and observatories across the country and, after expanding overseas, undertook the same process in taiwan, korea, and manchuria. the first formal observatory in taiwan, for instance, was established in 1896 by the japanese authorities and, by the 1920s, the japanese had also established a meteorological department at the imperial university for weather monitoring and forecasting. during the twenties and thirties, they became strong leaders in the field of asian agricultural meteorology and gained recognition in tropical storm science (fujiwara sakuhei), atmospheric science (wasaburo oishi), and urban heat science in osaka and tokyo.5 elsewhere, during the short-lived japanese occupation of countries such as singapore and hong kong, observatories and meteorological facilities were taken over and weather records held secret as part of the war effort. rising interest in, and support for, meteorology reflected pragmatic concerns of governance and exploitation of space. trade and exploration were vulnerable to weather conditions, shaping access, extraction, and transport of commodities,6 and it was a matter of scientific and mathematical perspicuity to use climatic theories in making decisions about geographical, material, and political conquests of new territories. meteorology and mathematical climatology were used in planning to help increase nations’ profits by either lowering costs of extraction and transport or raising labour productivity. for european traders, imperialists, and settlers, newly-discovered climates possessed the economic virtue of literally saving labour by producing commodities, from foodstuffs to timber to minerals to humans. climates thus acquired a tangible value extracted by means of observation and prediction. for instance, in a feat of foolhardy mathematical brilliance, jean pierre purry, a swiss wine merchant turned colonial adventurer, determined an arithmetic formula for the “best” climate 3 jamie l. pietruska, “hurricanes, crops, and capital: the meteorological infrastructure of american empire in the west indies,” the journal of the gilded age and progressive era 15, no. 4 (2016): 418–45; deborah r. coen, “imperial climatographies from tyrol to turkestan,” osiris 26, no. 1 (2011): 45–65; gregory t. cushman, “humboldtian science, creole meteorology, and the discovery of human-caused climate change in south america,” osiris 26, no. 1 (2011): 16– 44; 4 on ways in which the “gaze/scale” has been constructed, tsing writes: “we describe the landscape imagined within these claims rather than the culture and politics of scale making.” anna tsing, “the global situation,” cultural anthropology 15, no. 3 (2000): 327–60, 330. see also: louis lebel, po garden, and masao imamura, “the politics of scale, position and place in the governance of water resources in the mekong region,” ecology and society 10, no. 2 (2005): 18–37; greg mitman, michelle murphy, and christopher sellers, “introduction: a cloud over history,” in landscapes of exposure: knowledge and illness in modern environments (osiris vol. 19), eds. greg mitman, michelle murphy, and christopher sellers (chicago: university of chicago press, 2004), pp. 1-17; erick swyngedouw, “excluding the other: the production of scale and scaled politics,” in geographies of economies, eds. roger lee, and jane wills (london: e. arnold, 1997), 171–80. 5 an overview of japanese uhi developments can be found in: takeshi sekiguti, ‘progress of climatology in japan’, bulletin american meteorological society 35:0 (1954): 428-32 and masatoshi yoshino, ‘development of urban climatology and problems today,’ energy and buildings 15-16 (1990/91): 1-10. 6 timothy sweet, american georgics: economy and environment in early american literature (philadelphia: university of pennsylvania press, 2002). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 3 on earth and persuaded the british government to fund colonization of the american carolinas (with disastrous consequences for swiss settlers maladapted to swamps and malaria).7 asian state and district leaders were doing the same thing internally, tracking rainfall patterns to boost agricultural yields and monitoring harvest and blossoming seasons in korea, china, and japan. a century later, environmental and climatological sciences drew legitimacy from institutional grounding. imperial powers led the way on the global table, as did jesuit activities across the americas and in asia. understanding and putting to use the knowledge of newlydiscovered weather patterns, unfamiliar seasonal changes, extremes of heat, winds, rains, unusual ocean currents and tides, convective storms, and non-routine events such as hurricanes and droughts—not to mention the medical conditions associated with the physiological and epidemiological qualities of non-european atmospheres—called for institutional means of information monitoring and delivery.8 institutional initiatives geared towards investment and organization of meteorological knowledge in non-european geographies thus became the norm among colonial governments and were made available to colonial promoters, traders, prospectors, botanists, and physicians. weather charts, as simon naylor puts it, followed interests and geographies that “conformed to the contours of britain’s imperial interests”.9 similarly, the colonial interest in north american climates, as anya zilberstein has recently demonstrated, expressed real concerns with their impact on settler demography, labour productivity, prospecting for raw materials, and health in places unfamiliar to europeans.10 likewise, jesuits in asian entrepôts such as shanghai and manila demonstrated a keen interest in scientific innovation—in methods and instruments especially—in demonstrating the use of meteorology for improving local agriculture, for reducing risks in trading expeditions, and improving scientific education in the east. this was reflected in the establishment of jesuit observatories and established institutional networks and research centres across the region11 the jesuit practices were also rooted in long-established ties with their counterpart meteorological observatories in south america, africa, and china, and in strong collaborations across the typhoon-affected china seas region. authors in this volume provide further evidence that the development of meteorological activities in imperial settings served as a risk-hedging pursuit intended to optimize weathersensitive activities by means systematic monitoring, communication, and prediction of meteorological conditions and seasonal changes. our authors demonstrate an evolving system of practical knowledge developed in parallel to infrastructures of commerce and commodities markets: shipping informed new monsoon research, farming spurred work in forecasting, resource extraction depended on seasonal anomalies, and merchant navigation depended on weather bulletins and warning systems. for example, british indian officials’ concern over revenue-depleting droughts raised questions about the possibility of developing methods to 7 vladimir janković, “climates as commodities: jean pierre purry and the modelling of the best climate on earth,” studies in history and philosophy of modern physics 41 (2010): 201–207. 8 morten a. skydsgaard, “it’s probably in the air: medical meteorology in denmark, 1810–1875,” medical history 54 (2010): 215–36; vladimir janković, confronting the climate: british airs and the making of environmental medicine (new york: palgrave macmillan, 2010); david arnold, colonizing the body: state medicine and epidemic disease in nineteenth-century india (berkeley: university of california press, 1993). 9 simon naylor, “log-books and the law of storms: maritime meteorology and the british admiralty in the nineteenth century,” isis 106, no. 4 (2015): 771–97. 10 anya zilberstein, a temperate climate: making climate change in early america (oxford: oxford university press, 2016). 11 aitor anduaga, ‘spanish jesuits in the philippines: geophysical research and synergies between science, education and trade, 1865-1898’, annals of science, 71:4 (2014): 497-521. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 4 determine the regularity of monsoon onset. likewise, asian states adopted and adapted modern meteorological methods, often cherry-picked to suit local circumstances and weathers.12 this collection shows how meteorology operated across a multiplicity of scales yet, despite this fluidity, in many respects formed its own knowledge space that underpinned and transcended imperial interests. the essays all present assessments of how meteorology was embedded within the national development strategies of both “home” and “foreign” environments within imperial asia. they explore how knowledge was communicated, constituted, represented, and articulated across networks of people and institutions within these contexts and also show how meteorology still operated at transnational scales. scales thus conceived can be geographic and corporeal, or perceptive and representative. the essays also collectively emphasise hybridity in the knowledge exchanges that took place within the spaces of meteorological science, even within colonial space, rather than presenting a dual or binary construction of eastern or western practices that met somewhere in the middle. the papers span the japanese and european imperial periods in nineteenthand early twentieth-century asia. they showcase the research of relatively early-career scholars whose work engages with the need to re-locate the spaces and places of meteorology and, in particular, seeks to reevaluate meteorological science within asian geographical perimeters and social frameworks.13 seeing across scales: local needs, national interests, global reach kae takarabe shows how meteorology in japan developed at place-specific as well as national scales with some of the first institutionalised efforts to collate instrumental weather observations at the regional headquarters of the kaitakushi (hokkaido development commission), several years before the establishment of the tokyo observatory. ostensibly an office dedicated to settle and develop what was then considered a wild and uncultivated island, the kaitakushi quickly realised the importance of climatic information to achieving this task. this was never a solely japanese story, however. kiyonaru kuroda, the man in charge of the kaitakushi, actively sought input from key figures on the emergent american meteorological scene to advise and inform scientific direction in hokkaido. this initiated a process of international knowledge exchange through the movement of people, information, methodologies, and instruments to and from japan and the us through the smithsonian meteorological project. the project’s first secretary, joseph henry, was a firm supporter of open communication in science, believing that science would not progress if it was confined within national borders. intellectual exchange across transnational settings was vital to advancing scientific endeavours. the smithsonian was not only a hub and dissemination point for scientific research, takarabe argues, but also dealt with very practical elements of the science, orchestrating the methodologies for collecting, tabulating, and broadcasting weather data in two-way exchanges. a large proportion of the early meteorological efforts in hokkaido were connected to agriculture, as indeed was the case in many parts of the world. it is perhaps surprising, then, that agricultural meteorology has received so little attention within the history of meteorology and the history of science more broadly. two of the essays in this collection (takarabe, parolini) connect with this important subject, shedding light on its role in improving imperial capacities and national development. giuditta parolini directly addresses national and international scales, rooting her discussion in the meetings and correspondences of the 12 chen et al, “shiyan tao and the history of indigenous meteorology”. 13 mahony and matteo caglioti, “introduction to relocating meteorology”. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 5 international meteorological organisation’s (imo) technical commission on agriculture. this commission operated for thirty years from the 1910s onwards, with brief disruptions during each world war. the commission operated as a melting pot for scientific exchange with members who actively contributed to the knowledge-making process. parolini argues that members’ interests were diverse and transnational in scope with participants drawn from almost forty nations as far afield geographically and culturally as argentina, china, egypt, and japan. whilst a large number of the members were trained in europe or in the us, their working experiences and nationalities went far beyond western borders, their personal participation in commission activities and daily jobs enabling cross-fertilisation of embryonic macroand micro-agricultural, ecological, and meteorological ideas. this dynamic was essential not only to furthering scientific research but also to economic success in producing and sustaining commodities and crops, especially for emergent and imperial economies. first-hand experience of working with “new” plants in “foreign” environments to produce worthwhile cash crops was an important road to successfully developing commercial agricultural capabilities.14 takarabe also explains how the invention, movement, and purchase of scientific instruments (for example, barometers) offer a different way of conceptualising the traditional centre-to-periphery colonial framework for knowledge dispersal. she notes how the americans, via the smithsonian project, were requested by their japanese counterparts to send meteorological instruments to the country in aid of burgeoning agriculture but also how instruments were developed or adapted locally. her observations connect with an important yet small strand in the history of meteorology on the movement of instruments and objects across global scales.15 however, they also invented, manufactured, and exported their own designs which were then sold back into the international market. thus the instrument market operated across multidirectional channels, over international borders, and within japan itself. the movement of people was also important in this process of exchange, offering a channel to transfer both information and instruments. takarabe’s account highlights the movement of people between the us and japan. these were not just short official visits to build political relationships, but often entailed the long-term placement of people in one country or the other, to work at respective meteorological and agricultural institutions as staff and advisors. these people were corporeal conduits through which cross-cultural as well as scientific knowledge was shared between the two nations. parolini points to how knowledge operated across disciplines as well as national borders. she describes agricultural meteorology as an essentially multi-disciplinary phenomenon. meteorologists did not work alone, but in close association with botanists, geographers, and statisticians to manage the complexity of the task at hand. knowledgemaking in this case was just as unlikely to operate as a single field as it was to operate within geographic perimeters. local knowledge was just as important, perhaps even more so, in the successful colonisation of tropical regions. yet international contexts allowed the dissemination of ideas between experts in ways that could not be matched locally. the resultant flows of information between east, west, and back again, were evolving and dynamic. they enabled the hybridisation of different forms of knowledge in their application to new environments and the development of new perspectives and working theories in agricultural 14 joseph m. hodge, “the hybridity of colonial knowledge: british tropical agricultural science and african farming practices at the end of empire,” in science and empire: knowledge and networks of science across the british empire, 1800– 1970, eds. brett m. bennett and joseph m. hodge (basingstoke: palgrave macmillan, 2011), 208–31. 15 simon naylor and simon schaffer, “nineteenth-century survey sciences: enterprises, expeditions and exhibitions: introduction,” notes and records of the royal society 73, no. 2 (2019): 135–47; bruno latour, science in action: how to follow scientists and engineers through society (cambridge: harvard university press, 1988). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 6 ecology through trial, error, and the application of multiple fields of study. thus knowledgemaking might be viewed here as something resembling a crosshatch stretching across the globe, intersecting at manifold points, scales, and across multiple layers. beth cullen and christina leigh geros conceptualise scale as an interconnected feature of evolving monsoon science as improved ways of understanding local and regional weather patterns emerged over the late nineteenth century. in some ways, this understanding also connected to the scale of the british empire itself, and the establishment of linked magnetic and meteorological stations across wide areas. in british india, they argue, weather maps reflected changing perceptions of scale in geographic and conceptual terms. the early maps, such as those created by henry blandford in the 1880s, mirrored the extent of british control in the region, as the maps directly reflected data points then established by, or available to, the british imperial meteorological network. this only changed as the scientific understanding of the monsoon advanced alongside the ability to collect deep oceanic data, enabling a far broader and significantly more dynamic picture to evolve. by the early twentieth century, they argue that a pan-oceanic view of weather had developed, enabling scientists to unfold new thinking spaces far beyond the more static pictures of the previous era. more than this, the maps evolved multidimensionally, vertically as well as horizontally, reflecting man’s incursion upwards into the atmosphere as well as across the lithosphere and hydrosphere. the collation of upper-air data developed alongside exploratory missions into higher altitudes, using balloons and kites to further the empire’s reach metaphorically and physically. cullen and geros’ maps can be viewed as visual representations of colonial knowledgemaking about weather, weather science, and india. this particular form of knowledge potentially ran roughshod over traditional indigenous understandings of the same climatic phenomenon that the british sought to make comprehensible. cullen and geros explore how the monsoon has been conceptualised within evolving scientific and chronological frames that cut across geographic, though not necessarily national, borders. their lens is also colonial and western, hemmed in by british (and, to a lesser extent, american) imperial ambitions, contemporary scientific networks, and trading routes. their account perceives of scale as at once global, national, and local, operating within a worldwide forum yet bounded by domestic interests and homegrown science. their account argues that weather maps emerged not only as a useful tool but as a way of rendering the intangible tangible. this of course connected with the nineteenth-century, predominantly western method of doing meteorology; that is, by collecting and systematising weather information alongside the integration of increasingly sophisticated theory and prevision.16 the weather map—often created around imperial shipping trajectories and trading routes17—therefore said perhaps more about colonial lenses and mindsets than about the weather itself, offering one way to understand the values of a particular time, place, and culture. as mike hulme has argued, climate is best understood as a cultural construct, viewed through its tools, practices, and artefacts.18 in other words, weather and climate are not atmospheric givens but realms of experience that are made to correspond to forces of nature that affect the human world through science. 16 katherine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: university of chicago press, 2005); james r. fleming, meteorology in america, 1800–1870 (baltimore: john hopkins university press, 1990). 17 naylor, “log-books and the law of storms”. 18 mike hulme, “climate and its changes: a cultural appraisal,” geography and environment 2 (2015): 1–11, doi: 10.1002/geo2.5. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 7 marlon zhu’s lens is also set within an imperial landscape, but he shows how british scientific authority was circumscribed by the nationalities and allegiances of the key actors in his story. he explores how the nineteenth-century english language presses available in the china seas region helped shape perceptions of the role and responsibilities of meteorological science through their reporting of controversies between some of the contemporary key players in weather science. honing in on two specific disputes, the first between the jesuit fathers who ran the manila observatory and william doberck, their counterpart at the hong kong observatory, and the second between the us weather bureau and its counterpart in the uk, zhu argues that the press played an important role in presenting and representing both arguments. in the asian case, the press represented the interests of the international inter-port mercantile community whose ideas were firmly set against doberck personally, tarnishing and misrepresenting the dispute to favour manila. zhu offers a tantalising glimpse into the soft power of the multi-national merchant community who, through appropriation of the englishlanguage news channels, exerted their influence on the direction and outcome of disputes critical to the livelihood of people living under the threat of typhoons in china, hong kong, and the philippines. the typhoon dispute, though essentially developed out of personal antagonisms, sheds light on the ways in which scientific knowledge and, critically, perceptions of scientific knowledge were fashioned and directed via the intervention of sundry competing interests operating across different scales. indeed, interest in regional typhoon forecasting was essentially localised to the china seas region, yet it affected trade across the world and attracted international commentary. meteorology was critical to the successive spanish and american regimes’ navies, enabling their respective militaries to safely navigate and patrol local waters in the china seas. trading interests were also protected by accurate forecasting, at which the manila observatory jesuits excelled. if any further argument was needed as to the science’s importance, the occupation of the philippine weather bureau by the japanese during world war ii as a critical institution ought to leave no doubt. integrated into new agricultural initiatives and disaster riskmanagement and reduction, the philippine science also had a broad-spectrum remit beyond seafaring. in agriculture, the weather bureau’s inquiries by this time interconnected with all major aspects of developing a modern agriculture department, including crop and animal disease research, harvest yield and productivity, irrigation and hydraulic management, even the health of farmers themselves. in managing disaster, the bureau aided the government with forecasting floods, typhoons, and droughts, and even with research into seismic and volcanic activity. it managed all these processes through a network of registering stations and research outposts all linked to the central bureau and observatory by telegraph, cable, and post, with operations enhanced by locally-developed and imported instruments. as a maturing nation with one of the highest number of natural disasters in the world, agriculture and disaster management were critical to successful national development. in the ports and mercantile communities of the china seas, zhu argues, meteorological sovereignty was tantamount to national sovereignty, with the arguments between manila, shanghai, and hong kong centred in on older national and international interests and affiliations. meteorology became caught up in a race for supremacy, a desire to be the first observatory to control and head the scientific services for the region, representing in many ways the race to power and antagonism between different colonial and non-colonial powers in the regions. a similar theme emerges in cullen and geros’ account of the establishment of the indian meteorological department (imd) in 1875. concerned with centralising the study of the climate in one place, this was not a question of geographic convenience, but a way of imposing british dominance on weather science across the region. the imd was intended to history of meteorology 9 (2020) 8 be the hub of a network that crisscrossed india, burma, and eventually the far east, linking centre to periphery and providing active information channels. this network mirrored, in some respects, the cartographic representations of the atmosphere, soon to be rendered into synoptic charts, a new view and perspective on the monsoon region and a way of asserting (british) order onto the unstable monsoonal atmosphere. understanding the monsoon was critical to agricultural fortunes in india and many parts of southeast asia. pressure to better forecast the monsoon in order to protect agricultural industries, cullen and geros argue, led directly to the expansion of data collection and more investment in the science from the 1880s. after three serious drought-connected famines between 1896 and 1902, pressure only increased as revenue and population both decreased in britain’s “jewel in the crown”. in french indochina, the subject of parolini’s research, improving the ability to forecast macroand micro-climatological changes was critical to local farmers and to national agricultural output. indeed, climatology may have benefitted more than meteorology, she argues, given that the long-term (say annual) perspective of the climate was more important than daily weather in managing farming operations. at the same time, the sheer pace at which the meteorological and climatological station networks grew, reflected in many ways the grip of french power on the region. growing from fewer than thirty stations in 1925 to more than five hundred in only seven years, people from all backgrounds, local, foreign, missionaries, and plantation workers, as well as hospital, agriculture, and forestry officers, were drawn into the meteorological fold. one of the recurring concerns across these essays is the role of meteorological expertise in economic activities. in indochina, and in hokkaido where the japanese were investing heavily in pioneering agricultural development, meteorology was a critical component in successfully developing agricultural strategies. it could even be argued, as parolini does in her article, that this relationship worked both ways: agriculture acted as a/the catalyst for the creation of a systematic weather network. protection of imperial trade and shipping was also a formidable catalyst for meteorological investment in typhoon-inflicted asia. for the spanish jesuits in manila and for britain’s officials stationed in hong kong, finding a workable method of predicting the onset and intensity of an incoming typhoon was paramount. this situation was also reflected in india where the monsoon had the potential to change agricultural fortunes, and thus determine the health and stability of the region’s populace. weather maps were produced as result of the extreme climatic situation that colonial officials found themselves in, a way of controlling or taming nature through the imposition of orderly systems. geros and cullen show that matthew fontaine maury’s monsoon charts featured new elements that gave them an advantage in optimizing maritime routes, transport costs, speed of travel, and, eventually, resource use. through cartographic visualisations, the monsoon the became an object of trade, with ocean currents and winds turning into market internalities, part of a “vast and reliable machine” with “revenue-boosting advantages”. those involved in meteorological research considered meteorological monitoring a “subject of the greatest importance from an economic standpoint”. in parolini’s study of paul carton’s (1891–1969) meteorological work in french indochina, the logic of agro-capitalism becomes apparent in the state’s programme to determine the type of crops most suited to local terrain and climate, and the economic value of weather research and observations becomes the precondition for the growing network of farm weather stations. by investigating the relationship between plant ecology, soil types, radiation, and humidity, agroecology served the french state and business interests in providing the practical information needed for the cultivation of hevea, tea, coffee, and rice. carton advocated meteorology as an aid for industrial agronomy and farm management, believing that a combination of weather, soil, and ecological data was more useful to the farmer than weather history of meteorology 9 (2020) 9 bulletins and short-term weather forecasts. furthermore, zhu sees a further dimension in the mobility of colonial capital related to maritime security. as the rivalry in issuing typhoon warnings escalated between the manila and hong kong observatories, daily newspapers enabled merchants to judge their accuracy first-hand by publishing of the warnings from both institutions—and, in addition to being consumers, these merchants also became juries on the value of the respective weather services. the use of warnings, as takarabe’s investigation into the adoption of smithsonian methods of weather observation in meiji japan acknowledges, testifies to the state’s increasing recognition of the public, agricultural, and industrial value of meteorological research and networks. interestingly, the americans brought their smithsonian programme to the philippines, as they did in japan, essentially a western approach to systematic and standardised meteorology. one could argue, however, that this system was not specific to the west but was already practiced—just under different names and styles—by the nineteenth-century asians. thus the particularly interesting elements of this scientific crucible were that neither system was indigenous to a region but had developed conterminously as direct result of contemporary scientific networks and knowledge sharing, as well as the pressures of practical necessity. weather and atmosphere gained scientific status in proportion to their relevance to government, trade, markets, and—more generally—to an institutional approach of managing environmental vulnerability. trivially a matter of everyday experience, weather commanded scientific and public interest especially when the scientific practitioners could demonstrate its value in commercial and public life. while such knowledge may appear to have emerged out of disinterested inquiry into the quantifiable properties of the aerial fluid governed by universal laws, in reality it was a practice—a working knowledge—in which information about the likelihood of monsoons, typhoons, and other hazards became relevant to the extent that it provided rational grounds for maximizing insurance, security, foresight, and profit-making activities. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 79 balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy: the ipcc’s first assessment cycle, 1988-1990 david g. hirst the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) was convened in june 1988 with a mandate to provide a comprehensive assessment of the science, impacts of climate change as well as the possible response strategies open to policymakers. this article will look to the first 18 months of the ipcc’s existence and the assemblage of what sir john houghton, chief executive of the uk met office and chairman of ipcc working group i, proudly described as “an authoritative statement of the views of the international scientific community.” 1 the first assessment cycle lasted eighteen months and culminated in the 1990 publication of three assessment reports on: the science (working group i) of climate change, the impacts (working group ii) of climate change and the possible response strategies (working group iii) to climate change. crucially by 1990, the ipcc was able to present itself as both scientifically credible and politically legitimate. this article will explain how these two conflicting forces were balanced in the course of assembling the ipcc’s first assessment. from 9 to 11 november 1988 in geneva, the ipcc met for the first time. this meeting took place only three months after the final, and formal, decision had been taken by the world meteorological organization and the united nations environment programme (unep) to establish the ipcc, which followed on from extensive negotiations undertaken between the wmo, unep and us officials. but in november 1988 much of the detail of how and who would actually perform the assessment was still undecided. at the august 1990 fourth session of the ipcc in sundsvall, sweden, the final assessment report was adopted and approved by the ipcc delegates. here the wmo secretary-general godwin o.p. obasi thanked the one thousand or so specialists from seventy different countries to have participated in the production of the assessment. obasi was positioning the ipcc to speak (on behalf of the entire global population) universal truths on climate change to policymakers. but, as i will show in the course of this article, while the ipcc did involve participation from 70 different countries, the overwhelming majority came from the developed world. the ipcc’s assessment, therefore, opens up questions around the geopolitical implications of knowledge constructed as global in an unequal world; namely the grounds on which participation in an expert, intergovernmental assessment should be based. in this article i will examine the ways us officials sought to create a global politics of research for this article was conducted during doctoral studies at the university of manchester, centre for the history of science, technology & medicine. 1 john houghton, “foreword,” in climate change: the ipcc science assessment, j. t. houghton, g. j. jenkins & j. j. ephraums (eds.), (cambridge university press: cambridge, 1990). hirst, balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy 80 participation in the ipcc assessment in order to project authority onto a legitimised base of expertise. i will argue that during the assessment process, the ipcc flipped the scientific ‘view from nowhere’ into a ‘view from everywhere’, whilst actually only representing a minority of nations. i will also consider the effects of a specifically intergovernmental assessment, particularly how the institutional arrangements of the ipcc structurally impacted upon the assemblage of the report, its reception and the dissemination of its findings. the opening address to the first session of the ipcc by g.o.p. obasi highlighted the intersection between governments, international organisations and scientists mandated by an intergovernmental assessment. i will show how this intersection was a fundamental driving force during the ipcc’s first assessment; shaping the content, structure and organisation. i show that the lack of a set of formal procedural roles allowed both scientists and political representatives to exert an influence over the assemblage of the report, and the ipcc’s guiding principles. this meant that at all times the ipcc was guided by the two moderating constraints of scientific credibility and political legitimacy. the focus of this article revolves around the personnel, the methods and the activities of working group i (wgi) within the ipcc. although there were three wgs, it became apparent in the course of researching this assessment cycle that wgi was the most influential in the context of decisions taken over the shape and content of the assessment. similarly, wgi was widely regarded as the most authoritative and successful of the three reports in reviews of the panel’s activities. stephen schneider’s1991 review of the three reports suggests that: ironically, the least scientifically original product of ipcc, the working group i report, has proved to be the most useful. although it contains few fundamental ideas or results that were not already noted in previous assessments of global warming, the report is so comprehensive, rationally argued, and broadly representative –with both advocates and critics of scientific concern over global warming –that it is immensely credible and powerful. 2 in addition to the perceived authoritative status of wgi, there was also an added emphasis on its findings, as wgi provided the basis for the other two reports on the possible impacts and necessary response strategies. in this article, i will firstly chart the evolution of the processes and protocols developed in the production of the assessment report. this will show that it was scientists, and not government representatives, who initially came to the fore throughout the assessment phase. secondly, i will show how the evolution of the structures, methods and protocols of the ipcc assessment contributed to an institutional design that enhanced the reputation of the final reports. i will then briefly detail examples of how the final assessment report was received in the us. 2 stephen h. schneider, “three reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change,” environment 33 (1991), p. 26. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 81 the ipcc first session, november 1988 following on from months of consultations involving the deputy secretary-general of the wmo james p. ‘jim’ bruce, the executive director of unep mostafa tolba and various agencies and representatives of the us government, the executive decision to establish the ipcc was taken in june 1988. at the 40th session of the wmo executive council, the wmo executive council resolution stated that the panel should aim to: (i) assess the scientific information that is related to the various components of the climate change issue [..] to enable the environmental and socio-economic consequences of climate change to be evaluated; and (ii) formulate realistic response strategies for the management of the climate change issue. 3 as a result, from the 9 to 11 november 1988 in geneva, the ipcc met for the first time. this meeting was attended by 103 representatives consisting of 30 wmo and unep member states, 21 representatives of 16 international organisations, 7 invited experts, 8 representatives of the wmo and unep secretariats and the two-man joint secretariat. three key decisions were taken at this meeting that shaped the first 18 months of the panel’s activities: (i) the panel’s timetable for completion, (ii) its scope and methods of producing the assessment, and (iii) the selection of key personnel in the panel’s hierarchy. these decisions were part of a conscious effort by the ipcc delegates to make the assessment politically expedient, legitimate and scientifically credible. the ipcc, and in turn the assessment, traded off the credibility of its scientific leaders whilst the science was becoming increasingly political. these initial structures positioned governments and country representatives, not necessarily scientists, at the nexus of orchestrating and writing the assessment. ipcc structures and personnel a us policy document drafted in anticipation of the ipcc first session in november 1988 identified the establishment of a chairman and vice-chairman of the panel as its first order of business. 4 to this end, jim bruce and obasi “cornered” bert bolin, professor of meteorology at stockholm university, at the toronto conference for the changing atmosphere (june 27-30 1988) and set about persuading him to take on the ipcc chairmanship. 5 bruce and obasi believed bolin was the perfect fit for the job of ipcc chairman, as did the scientific research community, the wmo, unep, and national policymakers. these three groups had differing but complimentary aspirations for the chairman of the ipcc to appear to be politically neutral and scientifically literate. bolin emphatically embodied these criteria as a citizen of a non-aligned country, an internationally respected scientist (in meteorology), and someone well versed in the field of international scientific co-operation. 6 the decision to appoint bolin, a seemingly apolitical scientifically credible chairman, is representative of a wider ambition to create a broadly inclusive, scientifically credible and politically legitimate panel. 3 wmo, intergovernmental panel on climate change, resolution 4 (ec-xl), (june, 1988). 4 anonymous, “scope of activities, issues, and timetables for wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change,” (june 1988), doc. f: personal paper of eugene bierly (bierly papers forthwith) 5 james p. bruce, interview with david hirst, (1 february 2012) uk/canada. 6 bo döös & eugene bierly, “bierly – döös paper. items to be considered,” (10 th may 2009), bierly papers, p. 16. hirst, balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy 82 beyond selecting the chairman, and vice-chairman of the ipcc bureau, delegates at the first session also took considerable steps towards establishing ipcc methods in the production of the assessment. to this end, bert bolin initiated discussion of agenda item three of the first session (work program of the panel) with a debate on the number of working groups (wgs) to be established. 7 the agreed terms of reference for the wgs stressed that each wg had sole responsibility for the timely production of the assessment report. significantly, discussions over the terms of reference produced an agreement that each wg would comprise about a dozen national representatives designated as “core members,” a chairman, and a small number of vice-chairmen. it was further agreed that each wg “should strive to obtain the best possible expertise,” but that ultimately “core members would be responsible for the completion of the tasks of the working groups.” 8 so, the ipcc’s terms of reference clearly gave core members – governmental representatives – much greater responsibility than the experts. in addition to their appointed roles coordinating the day-today activities, the chairs and vice-chairs were also going to make up the bureau (the executive group of the ipcc) alongside the ipcc chair and vice-chairs. this arrangement offered the chair of each wg the potential for significant influence over the course of the wg, the hence proceedings and assemblage of the whole assessment report. each wg chairman was, therefore, in a position to be able to push the interests of his country. fig. 7.1. ipcc structure during 1988-1990 assessment. 7 w.j. mcg tegart, “wmo-unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, first session: australian delegation report,” (16th november 1988), zillman papers. 8 ipcc, report of the first session of the wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc-1: td –no.267, (geneva, 9-11 november, 1988). history of meteorology 6 (2014) 83 with the responsibility of the panel’s assessment shifted to the wgs, the negotiations over the composition and governance structures of each wg took on great significance. each delegation was invited to put forward their nominations and preferences for wg membership to a committee, chaired by dr greg tegart (the australian principal delegate) and comprised of representatives from the us, ussr, mexico, senegal and malta. the ipcc plenary invited the selection committee to propose chairmanship, vice-chairmanship and core-membership of the three wgs, taking into account the need for equitable regional representation and for a balance of scientific and policy expertise. 9 so, while the delegates were vying for key roles in order to gain political influence, this was tempered by the fact that the committee was tasked with achieving equitable regional representation. the drive for equitable regional representation was included as an appeal to political legitimacy. this requirement allowed the ipcc to project an image of an international assessment constructed by an international community on behalf of an international audience. following the nominations and discussions it was agreed that wg i would be chaired by the uk (john houghton – the head of the uk meteorological office); wgii on impacts would be chaired by the ussr (yuri izrael – the head of the ussr hydrometeorological service), and; wgiii examining the possible response strategies would be chaired by the us (fred bernthal – assistant secretary of state for oceans and international environmental and scientific affairs). furthermore, brazil and senegal were appointed as vice-chair to wgi, australia and japan to wg ii and canada, china, malta, the netherlands and zimbabwe to wg iii (see fig. 7.2). effectively, the three wgs represented countries either side of the cold war divide. moreover, the global south – in effect developing countries – was represented by brazil and senegal, displaying how the constraints of geographic representation were operating and guiding decisions within the panel. before he took on the chairmanship of the ipcc, bolin stressed that “right now, many countries, especially developing countries, simply don’t trust assessments in which their scientists and policymakers have not participated.” 10 the ipcc actively and directly addressed these issues of distrust through their selection of wg membership. however, in attempting to create a global environmental assessment that could be said to be matched by its truly global inclusivity, it could equally be argued that traditional scientific rigours went by the wayside. core membership established on the basis of national representation meant participation was premised not on scientific merits but instead political criteria. 9 w.j. mcg tegart, “wmo-unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, first session: australian delegation report,” (16th november 1988), zillman papers. 10 stephen h. schneider, “three reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change,” (1991), p. 25. hirst, balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy 84 fig. 7.2. core membership of working groups: ipcc. the structure of the wgs encouraged delegations to target key roles so that they could exert influence over the actions and outcomes of the wgs. as outlined in its briefing document, a principal objective of the us delegation at the ipcc first session was to volunteer to chair one of the wgs. prior to the meeting the us delegation was already seeking to play an integral role in the ipcc’s assessment in the two areas deemed to be of greatest significance – the science and policy. their strategy identified both wg i and wg iii as key areas in which “to play a leadership role by offering experts to chair or co-chair history of meteorology 6 (2014) 85 [sic].” 11 the us delegation was further instructed to ensure that the ipcc was the forum for “evaluating the desirability of a global convention.” 12 this document went on to assert that “the u.s. could consider a framework convention that does not call for the adoption of response strategies prior to completion of the assessments.” 13 aware that “calls for a global convention are likely to be made by several other countries” the us delegation was being advised on how to deflect that line of reasoning back towards the ipcc’s assessment. 14 because, if wg i found that there was no mandate for action, scientifically, there would be no reason for a global convention. similarly, if wg iii found alternative response strategies available to the international community they could avert the looming possibility of implementing a global convention. chairmanship of the working group on policy offered the us delegation a key role in shaping any negotiations of a global convention to follow. as such during the course of the meeting the us delegation, at the behest of deputy under-secretary of state bill nitze, prioritised chairing wgiii on response strategies. 15 this was part of a concerted effort on the part of the us to control movements towards any formal convention, and in further making any convention that did come to pass “as light a touch as possible in terms of mandatory emission reductions.” 16 the us delegation was privileging debate over action. the timetable of the panel was also determined at the ipcc’s first session. before the national representatives arrived in geneva, tolba and bruce set forth an eighteen month timetable for the production of the assessment which was approved at the meeting by the ipcc delegates. the work schedule was explicitly geared towards three meetings which externally generated key deadlines. panel members considered these three meetings to be of international significance. first, the panel identified the second world climate conference, scheduled for 25 june-3 july 1990. second, was the anticipated call for a report to the 45th session of the un ga in 1990 and third, it was pointed out that the report could be submitted to the 11th wmo congress and unep governing council meeting in 1991. 17 the panel members were all in agreement on the need for the assessment report to be made available as an input to international political meetings, not just scientific conferences. the timetable, and the specifically political nature of the meetings targeted, signifies the efforts to ensure the political relevance of the panel’s report. “an authoritative statement of the views of the international scientific community” the proposal to implement core membership gave national representatives a prominent role in the compilation of the assessment. however, a series of ad hoc, piecemeal decisions taken by the scientists working within the confines of this structure took the assessment out of the control of governments, this was exactly what the us negotiators had 11 anonymous, “draft u.s. strategy for implementation of wmo-unep intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc),” (august 15 th , 1988), doc. g bierly papers. 12 ibid. 13 ibid. 14 ibid. 15 william a. nitze, interview with david hirst, (7 march 2012) uk/us. 16 ibid.. 17 ipcc, report of the first session of the wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc-1: td –no.267, (geneva, 9-11 november, 1988). hirst, balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy 86 been trying to avoid in establishing the ipcc in the first instance. 18 as these scientists rose to prominence in the production of the assessment, the politics of participation was disrupted, because the drive to enlist the best expertise tended to focus on incorporating western scientists. so, as control of the assessment processes swung away from the government representatives, and towards the scientists, the priorities guiding the assessment changed. subsequently, the us delegation was instrumental in clawing back much of the control governments had conceded as a result of the time constraints imposed in the production of the assessment. the us and other governments decided there needed to be a review process put in place to supervise actions of the scientists, resulting in the introduction of the concept of government review. at all times, the intergovernmental structure was a constraining influence – requiring the ipcc to appeal both to the ideals of scientific truth and credibility and to claims of interest and geographically equitable participation in order to appear politically legitimate. at the end of the ipcc first session, john houghton returned to the uk and quickly established a small task force, housed in the uk met office, to take charge of the day-to-day activities of wgi. geoff jenkins, a meteorologist at the met office, headed up the task force, and was assisted by james ephraums (science support), and shelagh varney (technical support). speaking retrospectively, houghton maintains that at the outset of wgi activities he wanted to see a thorough report with contributions from as many scientists as possible. 19 in response, jenkins, and the task force quickly agreed that wgi should emulate the scientific committee on the problems of the environment (scope) 29 report and utilise “lead authors” to write the report. 20 this proposal was considerably less inclusive than houghton’s vision, but did meet the pragmatic needs of writing a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change in a short 18 months. for the scope report, lead authors were asked to draw on their own expertise and the scientific community in order to draft each chapter, which then became part of a wider assessment. the lead authors, teams of two or three experts, coordinated meetings and workshops with other researchers in that particular field in order to synthesise and report on the latest research. speed and accuracy were of chief concern to jenkins, watson, and albritton. they wanted the assessment done “correctly” which meant the scientists were the ones to do the work. importantly, for jenkins and the wgi task force, this meant work on each chapter could occur in parallel. when the core members of wgi gathered together for their first plenary meeting at the end of january 1989, 21 jenkins presented this idea of lead authors as the most viable effective use of resources towards producing an assessment. even though this marginalised their role, the core members of wgi agreed to the principal. this plenary meeting was important, insofar, as it allowed the wgi task force a mandate to petition a number of prominent climate scientists to become involved in the assessment process, as lead authors and expert contributors, who went on to write and review the assessment report. with an agreement in place that it would fall to the lead authors to draft the individual chapters of the 18 david g. hirst, negotiating climates: the politics of climate change and the formation of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), 1979-1992, unpublished doctoral dissertation, (the university of manchester: manchester, uk: 2014). 19 john houghton, interview with david hirst, (30 july 2012), uk. 20 geoff jenkins, interview with david hirst, (14 march 2012), uk. 21 the core members of wg1 were: china, denmark, frg (federal republic of germany), japan, kenya, switzerland, tanzania, usa and the ussr. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 87 assessment, discussions as to who these lead authors would be began. guided by the ten different chapter topics and initial suggestions made by the wg core members the final decisions taken over who to approach in order to assemble the report ultimately fell to the wgi task force. the motivation of the wgi core members was to ensure the task force could petition a select few experts in order to ensure the scientific credibility. despite the overriding principle of equitable distribution, the drive to enlist the “best” scientists resulted in wgi approaching mainly western scientists. reporting on the activities of wgi to the ipcc second session, geoff jenkins pointed to the 29 lead authors from 13 countries selected by the wg task force, as well as a “total of some 200 scientists” involved in the writing of the report. 22 emphasising the global reach of the wg i’s expertise in this way, whilst not inaccurate, certainly presented a misleading picture. for whilst there were thirteen different countries represented and some two hundred scientists involved there was also a significant majority of british and american based scientists involved as lead authors. in fact british and american based scientists comprised twenty-two of the thirty-four lead authors, 23 with this figure closely replicated in the overall makeup of contributors to the report. at first glance these figures might appear to reflect the social biases of the wgi task force, which, of course, to some extent they do. but significantly, they also reflect the geographic concentration of scientific research into climate change at the time. pertinent to this observation, sts scholar, aant elzinga has noted that as science has become increasingly global in nature it has not decreased hierarchization. despite increased connectivity, scope and wider participation across national borders, most scientific research remains concentrated in a few areas of the developed world. elzinga maintains globalization of science and participation has led to a ‘de-globalization’ in the dispersion of science, concentrated in the oecd countries. 24 this is exemplified by jenkins comments to the ipcc second session, as we see its architects seeking to reconcile this de-globalization of the dispersion of science with the panel’s global accountability. by highlighting and arguably exaggerating the diversity of the wgi participants, jenkins can be said to be responding to the pressure to ensure the political legitimacy of the assessment. between april 1989 and january 1990 the lead authors convened several meetings at which two-hundred scientists were invited to participate. these meetings ranged in length from one day to one week, during which decisions were taken over the scope and content of the various chapters. a multitude of seemingly insignificant ad hoc decisions over the inclusion/exclusion of minor details taken by the lead authors was as a whole contributing meaningfully to the overall content of the assessment. thus, the assemblage of the report was occurring through a loose network of lead authors and experts held together with the wgi task force at the head. independently, the structures and methods introduced by wgi were emulated by the other wgs. so that by the time ipcc panel members met for the ipcc’s second session at unep’s headquarters in nairobi (28-30 june 1989), the three wgs had all taken similar steps 22 w.j. mcg tegart, “wmo-unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, second session: australian delegation report,” (11th july 1989), zillman papers. 23 the country of residence of the 34 lead authors listed: britain – 11, usa – 11, switzerland – 2, sweden – 1, west germany (frg) – 1, china – 1, russia (ussr) – 2, japan – 1, netherlands – 1, brazil – 1, india – 1 and canada – 1. 24 aant elzinga, “science and technology: internationalisation” (2004) p. 13633-13638. hirst, balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy 88 towards compiling their assessment reports. the core members operating in the three distinct wgs were all in the same position. having entered into a process in which they anticipated being the central architects of the assessment, they now found themselves marginalised, their role being far smaller role than initially envisaged. consequently, the marginalisation of core members led them to seek out a way of essentially being able to approve the assessment – providing their assurance on the quality and the content. 25 in pursuit of this mechanism of quality control, the concept of government review surfaced during discussions at the ipcc second session. wgi was certainly open to the idea of review, but that was for the “natural” process of scientific peer review, for which there was already an arrangement, not for government review. in john houghton’s report to the delegates in nairobi, he stressed that he had asked each of the lead authors to incorporate a scientific peer review before the chapters were presented to the wg plenary meeting. houghton went on to highlight that following the final drafting of the assessment, it would be “sent to all ipcc countries with a request to arrange for a further scientific review.” 26 operating under the constraints of normal academic practise, houghton and the wgi task force prioritised academic peer review as the primary means of preserving “science’s autonomy from potentially tainting social interests… keeping non-scientists out of decisions about scientific content.” 27 the introduction of a government review subverted the public image of scientific peer review as a guarantor of good science and reflects the on-going political considerations driving many of the decisions taken in the course of the assessments assemblage. the nature and centrality of the peer review process of the assessment was of particular importance to the us delegation. indeed, at the first meeting of the panel there were reports of considerable dissension among the delegates as to the source and nature of the peer review. the proposed scientific review appealed to the scientific delegates among the us delegation. but, the political representatives were concerned that this unreasonably constricted who could and should be able review the document before the government signed off on its content. these concerns became manifest half a year later at the ipcc’s third session when the chairman of wgiii and the principal us delegate, fred bernthal, stressed that peer reviewers should not be limited to those directly involved with climate research. 28 bernthal wanted to spread the net of potential reviewers wider than one just including scientists. arguing against a singularly scientific peer review was the first step towards the introduction of a government review, as bernthal responded to a pressing need for the us government to ensure that they retain a strong influence over the panel. with the government review in place the peer review process was opened up to a wider, arguably more inclusive, group of actors, the ipcc also agreed to abandon the concept of core membership of its wgs. 29 panel members had expressed concerns that the core/non 25 john zillman, interview with david hirst, (26 march 2012), uk/australia. 26 john houghton, “report from chairman wg1 (scientific assessment of climate change)” in w j mcg tegart, “wmo-unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, second session: australian delegation report,” (11th july 1989), zillman papers, pp. 28-29. 27 mario biagioli, “from book censorship to peer review” emergences: journal for the study of media & composite cultures, (2002) 12; 1, p. 13. 28 ipcc, report of the third session of the wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc-5, (washington d.c., 5-7 february 1990). 29 w.j. mcg tegart, “wmo-unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, second session: australian delegation report,” (11th july 1989), zillman papers. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 89 core distinction discriminated against those countries only recently to have joined the panel. in making the process more open a wider array of participants would be able to contribute to the assessment and in turn they would have a greater sense of ownership of the report. by widening the access to the assessment, with participation driven by geopolitical imperatives, the final report could in this way be described as a universal, global statement on the science of climate change, its impacts and response strategies. constrained by the demands of ensuring political credibility and legitimacy, ipcc members at this meeting saw it as essential that the assessment be viewed as open to participation by everyone. on this same theme, the second session of the ipcc also saw strong support for the establishment of an ipcc special committee on the participation of the developing countries. 30 after tolba’s opening statement on the issue, in which he noted with pleasure that more developing countries were present. he went on to point out that more financial and technical assistance, education and other concrete support mechanisms were needed immediately. 31 in fact even with the heightened presence of developing countries at the plenary sessions of the ipcc, there was concern at their limited participation in the activities of wgs. tolba invited further discussion of this issue following his warning that, “developing countries needed to be assured of full participation in all actions for limiting the emission of greenhouse gases and for preparing for global warming.” 32 the subsequent discussions concerning the participation of developing countries in the activities of the panel began by considering a report submitted by saudi arabia, senegal, brazil and zimbabwe on the “involvement of developing countries in the work of the ipcc.” this report had been commissioned by the ipcc bureau earlier in the year. 33 the ensuing discussion, according to the ipcc report, “brought out clearly the enthusiasm on the part of the developing countries for the work of ipcc and their genuine concern about climate change.” 34 as the ipcc was striving to take actions to create an inclusive and representative assessment, the inclusion of developing countries was specifically identified as being essential to this. whether it was the developing countries, wanting an increased role, or the developed countries, wanting to portray the ipcc as universally accessible, issues around participation were at the fulcrum of the ipcc’s political legitimacy. while the pressures to speak to a wide audience, through the politics of participation, were widely broadcast, there remained an inherent bias towards western scientists. and i suggest that the attempts to incorporate developing countries in the ipcc were largely tokenistic. indeed the inclusion of developing countries in a process dominated by western scientists (88% of all contributors to the first assessment were from developed countries) 35 was more about gaining governmental assent than widening participation. the 30 ipcc, report of the second session of the wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc-3, (nairobi, 28-30 june 1989) 31 ibid., p. 2 32 ibid. 33 ipcc ad-hoc sub-group, “involvement of developing countries in the work of the intergovernmental panel on climate change” annex iii in ipcc, report of the second session of the wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc-3, (nairobi, 28-30 june 1989). 34 ipcc, report of the second session of the wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc-3, (nairobi, 28-30 june 1989), p. 18. 35 claudia ho-lem, hisham zerriffi & milind kanlikar, “who participates in the intergovernmental panel on climate change and why: a quantitative assessment of the national representation of authors in the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ” global environmental change, 21, (2011), pp. 1308-17. hirst, balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy 90 intergovernmental aspect of the assessment allowed us policymakers to create a veneer of political legitimacy by suggesting the panel was, despite its overwhelmingly western perspective, open to participation by everyone. moreover, this also forcefully implied that the end-product could speak on behalf of the entire globe – east, west, north, south, developed and developing country alike. reception of the report: political legitimacy and scientific credibility the aim of the ipcc was to have the final assessment report available in the latter part of 1990. with this objective in mind, the ipcc’s report from the second session in june 1989 charted a course for the following twelve months of activities. it was hoped that the report would be approved at its fourth session, due to be hosted by the swedish government in august 1990. this would allow the report to feed into discussions at the swcc, which had been deliberately delayed by two months to november 1990, especially for its last two days when several heads of state were expected to attend. the timetable of meetings would allow the panel’s findings to contribute directly to political discussions over the ways in which climate change could be limited, and/or adapted to, thus ensuring its saliency. the interactions between the wgs, the ipcc bureau (comprising the ipcc chairman, vice-chairman and wg chairs), and the delegates at the main plenary ipcc sessions in finalising the assessment report during these final stages was crucial to the subsequent reception of the report. the dual legitimacy – the appeals to both pillars of scientific and political legitimacy –was an important factor in ensuring the political relevance of the assessment in 1990, but it has subsequently opened the ipcc up to criticisms questioning the politicisation of the science used in the assessment. but i argue that it was the exceptional qualities of an intergovernmental assessment, namely the ability to speak authoritatively to scientific and political audiences, that meant the ipcc was able to cement itself as the central authoritative body providing information on climate related matters in the subsequent negotiations. in order to ensure that the final report was received as scientifically credible the interim work of the wgs was thoroughly scrutinised. following the second ipcc session in nairobi and in the intervening 6 months leading up to the third ipcc session in february 1990 the lead authors of wgi organised “16 workshops [...] to prepare drafts of each of the sections.” 36 each chapter lead author team was asked by jenkins to include a round of peer review and the drafts were brought together for discussion at a meeting of the lead authors shortly after the third ipcc session later in february 1990. 37 notifying the panel of the wgs intention to hold this meeting, jenkins indicated that it would ensure that the document was a “clear and concise statement of the current understanding of the climate change issue.” 38 this meeting was the last chance for the wgi task force to ensure some sort of coherence in the overall report. thus, owing to the past experiences of jenkins and watson in the scientific and technical assessments of ozone depletion from the mid-1970s to the late-1980s, the wgi task force called upon the lead authors to contribute to an overarching ‘summary for policymakers’. 36 ipcc, report of the third session of the wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc-5, (washington d.c., 5-7 february 1990), p. 18. 37 geoff jenkins, interview with david hirst, (14 march 2012), uk. 38 ipcc, report of the third session of the wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc-5, (washington d.c., 5-7 february 1990), p. 18. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 91 at this meeting the final draft was scrutinised on a line-by-line basis. notably, there was no governmental representation nor a formal process outlined. it was instead a conspicuous example of one of the ways in which a series of ad-hoc piecemeal decisions taken by the wgi task force on the working arrangements of the ipcc shaped the content of the assessment. indeed, the fact that the meeting happened at all was at the insistence of the wgi task force. driven by scientific considerations and a kind of crowd-sourced expert peer review, this meeting highlights the lengths the wgi task force went to in order to ensure the final report was perceived as scientifically credible. the wgi authors were keen to ensure that summary, whilst politically motivated, maintained its scientific credibility. drafted by geoff jenkins, john mitchell, chris folland (uk met office), and bob watson the document was taken to the meeting of lead authors at the end of february to be scrutinised. during the course of the meeting, the draft was analysed, dissected and amended on the basis of clarity or scientific justifications. john houghton, chairing the meeting, was quick to side-line anything he deemed to be a “policypoint,” because, as far as he was concerned, wgi dealt with the science, not the policy. 39 clearly, houghton, the lead authors and the wg task force were insistent upon scientific rigours, but issues around participation and the decision to mandate a policymaker’s summary was itself a political decision. houghton’s assertion, therefore, ignores the very political nature of an intergovernmental as opposed to expert assessment. through the involvement of governments in the selection, legitimation and endorsement of experts in the ipcc processes, the assessment, whilst clearly geared towards the production of a report with defensible scientific credentials, also had overtly political considerations shaping and guiding the ipcc’s processes. in order to guarantee that the final report would be seen as a legitimate and globally representative; both the draft of the assessment and the policymaker’s summary were sent out to each government represented in the ipcc accompanied by a request to review the report and submit their concerns promptly. the responses that wgi received were mixed, with varying levels of engagement with the report. while some government reviews engaged the report superficially, often due to a significant dearth in appropriate expertise, others provided extensive comments and reviews. us contributions to the review process were the most extensive, closely followed by the australian government’s responses. the australian authorities, for example, convened a workshop under the auspices of the australian coordination committee for the ipcc (accipcc). at this workshop fifty five high level scientists and government officials from the bureau of meteorology, university departments, the national science agency and several government departments met to review, assess and comment on the assessment. 40 while it was vitally important to the way the assessment was received that every country represented in the ipcc had the opportunity for their own input into the report. the american and australian responses were in fact exceptional. the government responses from countries with a much less developed climate change program were much smaller scale, principally involving reviews from individual scientists from those countries. 41 the thai government, for instance, had only one reviewer, p. patvivatsiri, from the meteorological department in bangkok. the wgi report was actually reviewed by only twenty-one of the thirty ipcc members states represented at the first session of the ipcc in 1988. therefore, 39 john houghton, interview with david hirst, (30 july 2012), uk. 40 john zillman, interview with david hirst¸ (26 march 2012), uk/australia. 41 geoff jenkins, interview with david hirst, (14 march 2012), uk. hirst, balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy 92 while there was significant attention paid to the pressures to present the assessment as being geographically, even globally, representative, the evidence to support these claims was lacking. despite these issues regarding geographic representation, the comments submitted by the governments were then used to prepare a second order draft. the wgi task force, headed up by geoff jenkins, weighed up the various review comments and attempted to formulate a balanced final draft. in may 1990, this draft was then taken to the final plenary meeting of wgi in windsor, where it was discussed alongside the policymaker’s summary. this final version of the report had therefore undergone at least two rounds of scientific peer reviewing, and had also been submitted to a round of government reviews. all of which contributed to the largely positive manner in which it was received by the scientific community, governments and the media. at the final plenary meeting of wgi, the assessment report was unveiled to widespread media and political attention. however, it was not until later in 1990 that all three wgs of the ipcc finalised their drafts and compiled the reports for approval at the fourth ipcc session. so, in august 1990, the fourth ipcc session opened with the intention of approving the final assessment reports. in obasi’s opening address at the ipcc fourth session, he suggested that, “the importance of this meeting has been greatly enhanced by the reputation of which the ipcc has built up in the short two years of its existence, not only in scientific terms, but also in the political arena.” 42 obasi went on to thank the “more than 1,000 specialists from 70 countries” for their work in contributing to “the most comprehensive international intergovernmental assessment ever undertaken of a serious environmental and scientific problem.” 43 in addition to the size and scope of the first assessment, praised so highly by obasi, the panel also agreed to arrive at its decisions by consensus. 44 this small, yet significant, caveat added to the report at the fourth ipcc session, essentially meant that the final assessment could justifiably be described as a product of all the governments, as each representative would had to have signed up to the conclusions. moreover, john houghton’s foreword to the published version of the ipcc’s scientific assessment suggested that the peer review process “helped ensure a high degree of consensus amongst authors and reviewers regarding the results presented.” 45 these two strands of consensus – political and scientific – were actively sought after and constructed throughout the assessment cycle. the consensus agreement was essential to the ipcc defence when challenged by other agencies. the significance of this consensus agreement manifested itself as the report was disseminated after the ipcc approved the report in full. this is particularly evident in bob watson’s experience in a meeting with, the white house chief of staff, john sununu, and, director of the office of management and budget, richard darman two very influential voices during the first bush presidency. watson was called into this meeting by george h. w. bush’s presidential science advisor, allan bromley, to discuss the first draft of the policymaker’s summary. in this meeting sununu challenged watson, in no uncertain terms, 42 ipcc, report of the fourth session of the wmo/unep intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc-6, (sundsvall, sweden, 27-30 august 1990), p. 3. 43 ibid., p. 4. 44 ibid., p. 13. 45 john houghton, “foreword,” in ipcc, climate change: the scientific assessment (eds.) j. t. houghton, g. j. jenkins & j. j. ephraums, (cambridge university press: cambridge, 1990), p. v. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 93 to explain why the wgi policymaker’s summary was so “strong” and who had written it. 46 watson explained that he, john houghton, john mitchell, and geoff jenkins had written it and that there was a process that was very straightforward – that it undergoes a peer review both by experts and by governments. watson went on to stress that, “if there is indeed anything in there that can’t be defended based on the evidence in working group one it will indeed be changed to be consistent.” 47 watson’s defence of the assessment was based on the peer review mechanism, which meant that no one person or small group could be singled out. neither sununu nor darman were particularly happy about the summary statements regarding dramatic emissions reductions. but the us willingly joined the rest of the ipcc in adopting the report at its fourth session. sununu and darman, ultimately, either felt they could not argue with the consensus, as they saw that it was based on, what bob watson had conveyed as, a solid scientific foundation. or, they were at this stage unwilling to take a strong public stance opposing the wgi statement, believing that the wgiii report would have greater significance in the political negotiations anticipated to follow the report’s publication. finally, the intergovernmental aspect of the assessment meant that there was a twin ownership of the outcomes. the involvement of leading scientists writing the reports gave the assessments scientific credibility. meanwhile, the procedures established and ratified by the government representatives on the panel similarly gave the governments a sense of political ownership of the report. john houghton felt that “it was absolutely key to the ipcc’s progress that [it was] an intergovernmental body belonging to governments so that governments would take notice of us and that’s been true ever since.” 48 however, it is crucial that the ipcc assessment be understood as a report belonging to a select few governments and a selectively small scientific community. hence, the ownership of the report by this group of influential governments, such as the us, prevented them from openly criticising it. the us administration had invested significant capital in legitimising the ipcc report in order to control the politics of climate change. houghton’s model of ownership is naively true, to a large extent, but substantially downplays the embedded political motivations behind the reports acceptance. conclusions in this article i have focussed on the eighteen months of activities of ipcc wgi, culminating in the publication of the scientific assessment of climate change in 1990 and the accompanying summary for policymakers. i have shown how numerous ad hoc decisions – taken prior to the ipcc’s first meeting, during the course of composing the assessments and at the plenary sessions of the ipcc – produced a report that was widely accepted as an authoritative assessment of the issue of climate change. to a large extent the authoritative status of the assessment was achieved through appeals to scientific credibility, political legitimacy and ultimately in the expeditious and salient publication of the report. but there was also significant political capital invested, most notably by the us administration, in legitimising the report in order to control the politics of climate change. throughout the assessment cycle, capitalising on the absence of a set of formal procedural guidelines, both the scientists and political representatives exerted an influence. thus, it was through the actions and counter actions, of those involved in the ipcc plenary sessions and the minutiae of assessment writing, that the ipcc structures evolved. as a result 46 robert watson, interview with david hirst, (13 february 2013), uk. 47 robert watson, interview with david hirst, (13 february 2013), uk. 48 john houghton, interview with david hirst, (30 july 2012), uk. hirst, balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy 94 the assessment’s authoritative status was built on a dual legitimacy, specifically through its appeals to notions of both scientific credibility and political legitimacy. the inauguration of the ipcc was accompanied by an initial exuberance of the scientists involved. houghton, for instance looked to create a comprehensively science led technocratic review. the structures and checks introduced in the course of the reports assemblage, as a result of the wgi task force, drew heavily on practises deployed in previous assessments of climate change. in prioritising expert peer review and the “lead author” method of assembling the report, scientists were given (i) full authority to begin compiling the assessment, and (ii) full responsibility for checking and authorising its validity. thus, the ipcc assessment, led by eminent scientists such as bert bolin and john houghton, was able to project itself as scientifically credible. in response, to the emergent control and power being wielded by scientists – shaping the assessment’s priorities, activities, and report content – and because of the marginalisation of overt governmental representatives, the government representative sought to reassert their control over the ipcc. this was achieved, firstly, through the introduction of ‘core membership.’ this assured governments of their central role in the various wgs of the ipcc. secondly, through the extension of the peer review process to include governments, and political representatives, panel members were seeking to reassert their “ownership” of the report. this consequently transferred much of the control back from the scientists to the governments, and their representatives. the unique, evolving nature of the ipcc allowed it to harness the often divergent forces of science and politics harmoniously. this was essential to the successful reception of the final report in november 1990. however, one underlying concern in november 1990 remained – that of true equitable geographical representation. while there were efforts were made to involve as many countries as possible in the ipcc, the existing research and expertise remained firmly in the hands of western, developed nations. the efforts to widen the inclusion of developing countries were at best tokenistic, and at worst, allowed us policymakers to include other countries in the assessment as a means to gain governmental assent to their policies. ultimately, the authoritative status of the ipcc was achieved through a combination of its scientific credibility legitimised under the auspices of governments. microsoft word 04brooks.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 4. dmitrii mendeleev and russian meteorology during the second half of the nineteenth century nathan m. brooks new mexico state university dmitrii ivanovich mendeleev, who lived from 1834 to 1907, was one of the most important scientists and public figures in russian history and the history of science. his fundamental work in postulating and developing the periodic system of the chemical elements, expressed in the periodic table, brought him great fame not only in russia but throughout the world as well. this achievement had an immense influence on the development of modern chemistry and physics, and it became part of the basic principles learned even today by every chemistry student. in russia, mendeleev’s influence spread far beyond the discipline of chemistry. mendeleev acted as a consultant and took an active role in many different fields of interest, including agriculture, industry, economic policies, and others. he served as an informal science advisor to many important officials in the russian government and he headed the russian bureau of weights and measures for the last 15 years of his life. meteorology was one of the many fields that mendeleev worked in during his life. however, mendeleev was an “outsider” in this research area and his ideas met resistance from specialists in meteorology in russia, at least partly because he did not approach the subject from the traditional ways of doing meteorology in russia. in this paper, i will briefly discuss mendeleev’s work in meteorology and how it related to other work in meteorology in russia. as far back as the thirteenth century, there had been mentions of weather formations in the russian chronicles and other written sources.1 however, the first real meteorological observations were conducted in the eighteenth in connection with vitus bering’s expeditions to siberia (1733-1739). organized by the st. petersburg academy of sciences, the leaders of the expedition were instructed to take measurements of temperature and barometric pressure, as well as to make non-instrumental observations of clouds, thunderstorms, and dmitrii mendeleev and russian meteorology 42 other natural phenomena. in addition, the expeditions also set up a series of observations stations throughout siberia, but these continued operating only until about the middle of the century.2 while sporadic efforts were made to establish new observation stations during the rest of the eighteenth century and the first few decades of the nineteenth century, the first sustained meteorological observations were organized by adolf kupfer (1799-1865) beginning in the 1820s.3 kupfer, a baltic german, received his higher education in germany, but then returned to russia and received an appointment as professor of chemistry at kazan university in 1823. on a trip to paris in that year to purchase equipment for the university, kupfer became acquainted with francois arago and alexander humboldt, who stimulated his interest in terrestrial magnetism and meteorology. in 1828, kupfer was elected to the imperial academy of sciences and moved to st. petersburg, where he began to organize a series of meteorological observation stations throughout russia, to be supervised by a central observatory in the capital. in 1849, kupfer was appointed director of this new central observatory, which was named the main physical observatory [glavnaia fizicheskaia observatoriia]. the local observation stations would take readings of temperature, pressure, and various other meteorological indicators, and then send them to the main physical observatory, which was intended to coordinate the data received from the local observation stations and supervise their activities. kupfer headed the main physical observatory until his death in 1865, when ludwig kamtz (1801-1867), who had long experience in meteorology, took over this position. upon kamtz’s death in 1867, heinrich wild (18331902) was appointed as director.4 wild re-energized the activities of the observatory and supervised the organization and strengthening of the local observation stations, assisted by mikhail aleksandrovich rykachev (1840-1919). by 1875, there were 118 local stations and 432 by 1890. in addition, the main physical observatory conducted an active publication schedule. however, while the main physical observatory and its network of observational stations collected large amounts of data, there was a lack of theoretical and experimental meteorology. while the research done in these institutions was valuable, wild, rykachev, and their co-workers did not go beyond gathering data and they devoted very little attention to providing any kind of scientific explanations of weather phenomena. likewise, they were not interested in conducting experiments with aerostats or similar apparatus. on the other hand, mendeleev, with his background in experimental as well as theoretical science, viewed these aspects as essential for a thorough understanding of the weather. most of mendeleev’s work in meteorology was done in the 1870s, when he conducted large-scale investigations on the nature of gases.5 this was a critical period in mendeleev’s life, both scientifically and personally. mendeleev had been appointed as professor of chemistry at st. petersburg university in 1865. shortly after this time, while writing a textbook for his course in introductory chemistry, mendeleev began to formulate his concept of the periodic law of the chemical elements. mendeleev completed nearly all of his experimental and theoretical investigations on the periodic law during the short period from 1869 to 1871. however, by late december 1871, mendeleev had fully switched his attention to the study of gases.6 why would mendeleev make such a shift in his research focus at this time? for one thing, we must remember that the periodic law had not attracted much attention by this proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 43 time. the periodic law would remain overlooked until after the mid-1870s, when the discoveries of gallium (1875), scandium (1879), and germanium (1886), all of whose properties were very accurately predicted by mendeleev, demonstrated the usefulness of mendeleev’s concepts.7 by late 1871, mendeleev felt that he had done sufficient work to establish the theory. more importantly, he decided at this time to look for the universal ether -the substance that supposedly served as the carrier for all electric, optical, magnetic, and gravitational phenomena. like many other scientists at this time, mendeleev firmly believed that the ether existed and that it would help him unify all of the physical sciences, just like his periodic table unified all of chemistry.8 he had been interested in various aspects of gases as far back as his student days and had even pointed out the inadequacies of the standard gas laws in an article in 1870.9 the next year, mendeleev decided to undertake very precise studies of the expansion and compressibility of gases in order to demonstrate the existence of the ether. he believed that if there were a limit to gas expansion under low pressure, then there would be a point when our atmosphere would stop expanding, which would leave room for the ether. to mendeleev, the ether was still a gas, but it was a qualitatively different substance from the atoms that comprised our atmosphere. as he wrote in 1875: “then one should also admit that the expansive luminiferous ether of celestial space is composed of a substance as different from the gases [of air] as one chemically simple body is from another, that is, they do not transition into each other...i do not dare hope that i will solve such fundamental questions, but as an approach to their resolution i will still continue to work out observations on the compression of gases under the smallest possible measurable pressures.”10 mendeleev and his co-workers repeated the very exacting work on gases of victor regnault, but at more extreme conditions. they measured the temperature, pressure, and volume of various gases -including air, hydrogen, carbon dioxide and others -and they tried to determine the extent of deviations from boyle-mariotte or gay lussac’s laws. by so doing, it was hoped, the ether could be identified by comparing the corresponding deviations across the various gases. however, despite huge amounts of effort and the expenditure of considerable amounts of money, by 1875, mendeleev had failed to find solid evidence of the ether through these experiments. while mendeleev believed he had uncovered serious errors in regnault’s work, his real goal -the ether -remained tantalizingly outside of his grasp.11 this failure to identify the ether in the laboratory induced mendeleev to look at the behavior of gases in the upper levels of the earth’s atmosphere. he reasoned that if he could not find the ether in the laboratory, he could turn to the “natural laboratory” and use it to examine the substance that so interested him. at first, he thought that there must be some source of heat in the upper atmosphere to produce the turbulence and atmospheric effects that we observe on earth. he noted that the air at high elevations was simply too thin to be the product of boyle-mariotte pressure reduction alone. therefore, there must be a heat source in the upper atmosphere that was also expanding the gases.12 at this time, it was generally believed that the air was entirely heated from below by sunlight reflected off the earth’s surface. in several speeches and articles, mendeleev proposed that water vapor in dmitrii mendeleev and russian meteorology 44 the air was simultaneously heated by both sunlight from above as well as sunlight reflected off the earth’s surface.13 mendeleev believed that research on this topic would bring him much closer to elucidating the nature of the boundary of the upper atmosphere with the ether. moreover, it would also lead to a better understanding of the weather itself: “in order to establish a correct understanding of a large number of meteorological phenomena, in order to determine the refraction of light in the air, in order to conduct hypsometric measurements and for many other investigations it is necessary to know the law of the change of temperatures in different layers of air.”14 mendeleev thought that the study of the upper layers of the atmosphere would lead him to the discovery of the laws of refraction, weather, astronomical observation, gases, and eventually, the ether. the problem was that the measurements could not be taken from the ground, of course. furthermore, mendeleev also insisted that measurements made on mountains did not accurately reflect the properties of the upper layers of the atmosphere away from the mountains. he believed that this would not allow observations of freefloating “oceans of air” without interference by the mountain itself.15 so how did mendeleev propose to make the observations? he asserted that satisfactory results could be obtained using an aerostat -a weather balloon -operated by one scientist, together with the operator of the aerostat, to record observations of the gas expansion due to heating at various altitudes. he believed it was necessary to obtain measurements before theorizing. he stated: “thus, if we want to arrive at an empirical law of meteorological changes in the layers of the atmosphere, we must rely almost exclusively on phenomena observed during aerostatic ascents.”16 mendeleev knew of various previous aerostat ascents -such as gay-lussac’s in 1804 and james glaisher’s in the 1860s -and that many of them were connected with meteorological observations. however, mendeleev believed that glaisher’s data were suspect, due to certain methodological problems, such as placing the thermometer inside the cabin of the aerostat, which yielded higher temperatures than for thermometers placed outside the cabin.17 in spite of his distrust of glaisher’s data, mendeleev nevertheless used it in his own work. mendeleev declared that “france and england have already done much for the resolution of this question; now it is the turn of other states to gather the necessary data in the greatest quantity...this country, thanks to its continental climate, is very appropriate for experiments of this sort.”18 the problem was that no one in russia was willing to fund such balloon experiments. however, mendeleev devised an ingenious way to obtain the needed funds. his work on gases was being funded by the state (ministry of finances, through the russian technical society) and these officials were willing to let mendeleev keep any profits from the publications of the results of his research. mendeleev also devoted the profits from four other books published during the mid-1870s to financing a planned series of 15-20 aerostat flights. unfortunately for mendeleev, the aerostat was extremely expensive and the money he collected was insufficient for its construction. mendeleev continued to advocate the benefits of an aerostat until the early 1880s when he turned his attention away from meteorology. he finally was able to take his flight in an aerostat in 1887, but the purpose of the flight was more connected with his growing interest in aviation than with meteorology.19 proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 45 however, back in the mid-1870s, mendeleev’s hypotheses on what he might discover by means of these aerostat flights did not attract much attention from the russian meteorological community.20 one exception was m. a. rykachev, who directed a harsh attack against mendeleev’s underlying conceptions in meteorology. rykachev, wild’s assistant at the main physical observatory, was offended that mendeleev -who was not a professional meteorologist -would criticize the work of meteorologists like glaisher without having done similar experimental work himself.21 mendeleev brushed aside such criticisms, believing that rykachev simply wanted to maintain the authority of the main physical observatory in meteorological research. mendeleev also rejected rykachev’s criticisms of his concept of upper layers in the atmosphere. rykachev believed that there were no distinct boundaries in the atmosphere and that the transitions were gradual. mendeleev, on the other hand, insisted that there was a sharp transition between the top layer of the atmosphere and the ether.22 this exchange soon sputtered out and no other professional meteorologist engaged mendeleev in debate. while mendeleev was responding to rykachev in a professional arena, mendeleev also wanted to create a greater audience for meteorology among the general educated public. in order to accomplish this, mendeleev had two of his assistants translate henrik mohn’s book meteorology (first published in german in 1872) into russian (1876).23 mohn’s book was a general textbook that focused on the science of weather prediction, rather than on climatology, the study of average conditions of the weather in different regions. mendeleev wrote the preface for the book and added numerous footnotes. mendeleev paid little attention to the theoretical aspects of mohn’s book and instead focused on the institutional organization he would like to see for meteorology in russia. in essence, mendeleev’s plan was to create another organization that would duplicate the observational network of the main physical observatory. since the professional meteorologists at the main physical observatory paid no attention to his ideas about meteorology, mendeleev apparently began thinking of ways to circumvent this roadblock. he focused his attention on the new zemstva, local self-governing bodies in rural areas, which were becoming interested in weather prediction as an aid to agriculture. mendeleev proposed that these rural observers could collect data and send them to an expert (like mendeleev), who would then process and organize the masses of information. mendeleev even saw the zemstva using aerostats to collect data, although he acknowledged that many zemstva would have to band together to purchase an aerostat, since the cost was so great. however, mendeleev never followed up on these ideas about organizing a parallel organization to the main physical observatory for collecting meteorological data. as with many of his other schemes over the course of his entire life, mendeleev did not maintain an interest long enough to bring this idea to fruition. mendeleev’s varied activities during these years had yet another link to meteorology. in 1875, mendeleev orchestrated the convening of a commission to study spiritualistic phenomena.24 the commission was formed in order to examine scientifically these phenomena and -mendeleev evidently hoped -the results would clearly debunk the claims of the spiritualists that spiritualist phenomena were real. although there were other motivations for mendeleev’s interests in spiritualism at this time, one of the reasons that dmitrii mendeleev and russian meteorology 46 mendeleev became so concerned about spiritualism was its close connection to his work on gases and meteorology. some people were beginning to claim that the ether could function as a carrier for spiritualistic phenomena, as well as for gravitational, electrical, magnetic, and other phenomena. if we recall that the ether was the central point of mendeleev’s work on gases and meteorology, it is easy to understand his concern that if the ether became linked to spiritualism, it would lose its status as a serious problem of scientific research. for this and other reasons, mendeleev was eager to debunk the spiritualists. mendeleev defined spiritualist phenomena as “those which occur at séances, happening usually in the evening, in darkness or twilight, in the presence of special persons who are called mediums,” and hypothesized that these phenomena might be analogous to the weather, since atmospheric phenomena were not phenomena created by a specific force, but simply phenomena that occurred in the atmosphere.25 at the time of the séances observed by the commission, mendeleev made copious notes on the weather conditions. evidently, he wanted to test his ideas about the connection of spiritualistic phenomena with the weather. mendeleev soon convinced himself that the mediums were faking the spiritualistic phenomena, and he stopped further investigations along this line. by the late 1870s, mendeleev’s interest in meteorology had waned and he began to turn his attention to other activities. his work on gases was left unfinished and he never obtained sufficient funding to purchase even one aerostat for meteorological experimentation. while mendeleev continued to hold a belief in the existence of the ether, he no longer explored ideas of how to investigate it in the upper atmosphere. his work in meteorology left barely a trace in the history of russian meteorology. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 47 endnotes 1 d. f. nezdiurov, ocherki razvitiia meteorologicheskikh nabliudenii v rossii, leningrad, gidrometeoizdat, 1969, pp. 9-11. 2 ibid., pp. 15-22. 3 for information about kupfer, see: v. m. pasetskii, adolf iakovlevich kupfer, 17991865, moscow, nauka, 1984. also see d. f. nezdiurov, op. cit., pp. 39-67. 4 for information about wild and his activities at the main physical observatory, see d. f. nezdiurov, op. cit., pp. 68-123. also see a. kh. khrgian, “istoriia meteorologii v rossii”, trudy instituta istorii estestvoznaniia it tekhniki, 2 (1948): 71-104. 5 surprisingly, little adequate research has been conducted on mendeleev’s work on gases. the most sophisticated treatment is l. s. kerova, v. a. krotikov, and r. b. dobrotin, “issledovaniia d. i. mendeleev v oblasti fiziki gazov”, voprosy istorii i metodologii khimii, 2 (1978): 73-96. 6 see michael dan gordin, “the ordered society and its enemies: d. i. mendeleev and the russian empire, 1861-1905”, ph.d. dissertation, harvard university, 2001, p. 101. 7 stephen g. brush, “the reception of mendeleev’s periodic law in america and britain”, isis, 87 (1996): 595-628. 8 for a cogent argument about the centrality of the ether in mendeleev’s research, see gordin, op. cit. 9 d. i, mendeleev, “zamechaniia po povodu raboty endriusa nad szhimaemostiu uglekisloty”, (1870), sochineniia, 5, leningrad-moscow, akademiia nauk sssr, 1947, pp. 110111. 10 d. i. mendeleev, “ob uprugosti gazov”, 1 (1875), sochineniia, 6, leningrad-moscow, akademiia nauk sssr, 1939, p. 227. 11 for mendeleev’s summary of his work on gases, see ibid. 12 d. i. mendeleev, “o temperature verkhnikh sloev zemnoi atmosfery”, (1875), sochineniia, 7, leningrad-moscow, akademiia nauk sssr, 1946, pp. 15-20. 13 in addition to ibid., also see d. i. mendeleev, sochineniia, 7, pp. 23-50. 14 ibid., p. 35. 15 d. i. mendeleev, “o temperature verkhnikh sloev zemnoi atmosfery”, op. cit., p. 15. 16 d. i. mendeleev, “o temperature verkhnikh sloev atmosfery”, (1876), sochineniia, 7, p. 36. emphasis in original. 17 see ibid., pp. 37, 39. 18 ibid., p. 48. 19 v. n. vorobev, geneziz russkoi vozdukhoplavatelnoi mysli v trudakhh d. i. mendeleeva, moscow, akademiia nauk sssr, 1965. 20 in fact, most histories of russian meteorology barely even mention mendeleev. for example, see nezdiurov, op. cit.; and khrgian, op. cit. 21 m. a. rykachev, “nekotoryia zamechaniia na soobshchenie d. i. mendeleeva ‘o temperature verkhnikh sloev atmosfery’”, zhurnal russkogo fiziko-khimicheskogo obshchestva, ch. fizika, 8 (1876): 10-18. 22 d. i. mendeleev, sochineniia, 6, op. cit., p. 240. 23 henrik mohn, meterologiia ili uchenie o pogode, tr. n. iordanskii and f. kapustin, ed. d. i. mendeleev, st. petersburg, obshchestvennaia polza, 1876. mendeleev’s preface and footnotes to this volume are reprinted in d. i. mendeleev, sochineniia, 7, op. cit., pp. 201-237. 24 see richard e. rice, “mendeleev’s public opposition to spiritualism”, ambix, 45 (1998): 85-95; and michael dan gordin, op. cit., pp. 167-241. 25 d. i. mendeleev, materialy dlia suzhdeniia o spiritizme, st. petersburg, obshchestvennaia polza, 1876, p. 308. microsoft word 00frontmatter.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology volume 1, number 1, 2004 international perspectives on the history of meteorology: science and cultural diversity papers from the inaugural symposium of the international commission on history of meteorology international congress of history of science mexico city, july 11-12, 2001 james r. fleming, convener and editor © ichm 2004 issn 1551-3580 introduction ii contents pages introduction iii-vi 1. benjamin franklin and the first lightning conductors e. philip krider (the university of arizona, usa) 1-13 2. los inicios de la meteorología en el perú y la labor del cosmografiato: 1753-1856 lizardo seiner lizárraga (universidad de lima, perú) 14-27 3. johann wolfgang von goethes beziehungen zu luke howard und sein wirken auf dem gebiet der meteorologie karl-heinz bernhardt (leibniz-sozietät e.v., germany) 28-40 4. dmitrii mendeleev and russian meteorology during the second half of the nineteenth century nathan m. brooks (new mexico state university, usa) 41-47 5. cleveland abbe and the birth of the national weather service, 1870-1891 edmund p. willis (kinsale research, usa) and william h. hooke (american meteorological society, usa). 48-54 6. the first international polar year (1882-83): a big science experiment with small science equipment cornelia luedecke (university of munich, germany) 55-64 7. enclave vision: foreign networks in peru and the internationalization of el niño research during the 1920s gregory t. cushman (university of texas at austin, usa) 65-74 8. sverre petterssen, the bergen school, and the forecasts for d-day james r. fleming, (colby college, usa) 75-83 9. the scandinavian tag-team: providers of atmospheric reality to numerical weather prediction efforts in the united states (1948-1955) kristine c. harper (oregon state university, usa) 84-91 10. choosing the right axis: an institutional history of the belgrade eta forecast model vladimir jankovic´ (university of manchester, uk) 92-98 11. data collection and the ozone hole: too much of a good thing? maureen christie (university of melbourne, australia) 99-105 12. archives, libraries and bibliography in the history of meteorology prior to 1900 roy e. goodman (american philosophical society, usa) 106-111 proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) iii introduction the inaugural symposium of the international commission on the history of meteorology (ichm), “international perspectives on the history of meteorology: science and cultural diversity,” was held in mexico city in july 2001 during the xxist international congress of history of science. the twelve presenters addressed scientific, technological, environmental, social, political, and cultural dimensions of the history of meteorology. how did meteorology emerge as an international science? what tensions have existed between national weather services, national research styles, and international or global agendas? what were the social and cultural implications of transnational research, education, service, and forecasting? answers to these and other questions emerge in the papers that follow. the first paper in the volume, benjamin franklin and the first lightning conductors by e. philip krider, examines franklin’s electrical hypotheses of the 1750s, namely, that tall insulated conductors might be useful in examining the electrification of thunderclouds and that grounded metal rods would protect buildings from lightning damage. professor krider examines the origin of these ideas and traces their reception and implementation in the american colonies and in europe. he describes the design of the earliest protective rods and how they were gradually improved as experience was gained in practice between 1752 and 1762. the paper by lizardo seiner lizárraga, los inicios de la meteorología en el perú y la labor del cosmografiato: 1753-1856, traces the beginnings of meteorology in peru to the cosmografiato, an institution responsible for observing and recording celestial and climatic phenomena. between 1753 and 1856 five principal directors of the cosmografiato observed, measured, and, on occasion, provided qualitative descriptions of the climate of lima. their uninterrupted series of meteorological observations includes annual maximum and minimum air temperatures and atmospheric pressure. it represents the most complete record of any peruvian city or institution until the 1890s. the great german poet goethe (1749-1832) turned his attention to meteorology in 1815, after completing a number of scientific studies in other fields. the paper by karlheinz bernhardt, johann wolfgang von goethes beziehungen zu luke howard und sein wirken auf dem gebiet der meteorologie, examines goethe’s role in bringing luke howard’s cloud classification scheme of 1803 to the attention of german readers and his use of the howard’s typology in an observation network in sachsen-weimar-eisenach. although goethe extended and refined howard’s classification, pointing to dynamic factors controlling cloud formation, he is best known for his poems, including one on clouds written in honor of howard. dmitrii mendeleev (1834-1907), although primarily known for his work on the periodic law of the elements, actively pursued a variety of meteorological investigations, including the study of gases at low pressures in order to understand the functioning of the upper atmosphere and the expansion and compressibility of gases in order to demonstrate the existence of the ether. in a time when most meteorologists in russia focused on collecting data, mendeleev called for active experimentation in order to provide explanations of the weather. he constructed precision apparatus to measure air pressure and other meteorological variables and advocated the use of this equipment in balloon flights to study the properties of the atmosphere at various altitudes. these introduction iv perspectives are presented by nathan m. brooks in his paper, dmitrii mendeleev and russian meteorology during the second half of the nineteenth century. meteorology in america in the late nineteenth century is the focus of edmund p. willis and william h. hooke, who write on cleveland abbe and the birth of the national weather service, 1870-1891. cleveland abbe (1838-1916) started the first private weather service in cincinnati 1869 then joined the u. s. signal office weather service in 1871 as its chief scientist. abbe established professional standards, selected equipment, built a library, trained soldiers as observers and forecasters, and initiated many basic research projects in meteorology. beyond the immediate call of duty, abbe translated and distributed foreign meteorological publications in america, promoted the adoption of standard time, established the monthly weather review, and edited the bulletin of international simultaneous observations. using a biographical approach, the authors present abbe as an exemplar of the nineteenth-century american scientist. the paper by cornelia luedecke, the first international polar year (1882-83): a big science experiment with small science equipment, examines the meteorological experiments conducted during the first international polar year to monitor arctic weather with a dense network of basic instruments. it documents the problems of organization, the expeditions, and the results. the author concludes that measurements taken during the first big international meteorological experiment provided a valuable data set for half a century until the second international polar year took place in 1932-33. gregory t. cushman’s paper, enclave vision: foreign networks in peru and the internationalization of el niño research during the 1920s, examines the research styles of u.s. and german scientists interested in the powerful el niño event of 1925-1926. although they interacted with locals, foreign scientists relied primarily on existing foreign enclaves to organize idiosyncratic observation networks in peru to investigate this noteworthy climate anomaly. the paper focuses on the network organized by the u.s. ornithologist robert cushman murphy (1887-1973), who happened to be in peru studying marine birds when this event struck and who had ties to the standard oil corporation, the u.s. naval mission to peru, w.r. grace & co., the american geographical society, and the scripps institution of oceanography. through diplomatic intervention, murphy was able to use data gathered by german “ships of opportunity” and the famed puerto chicama sea-surface thermometer installed by a german-peruvian sugar magnate. using the network established by murphy, h. p. berlage, a dutch colonial scientist in java, was able to posit a physical relationship between el niño and the southern oscillation in the late 1920s. in documenting these ad hoc and idiosyncratic networks, cushman clarifies the role of foreign enclaves in the production and international exchange of environmental knowledge. he also cautions that a purely anglo-centric intellectual history of the science of el niño would be oblivious to many key participants in these networks and their social function in the act of scientific discovery. the beginning of the end of world war two in europe depended on what were arguably the three most critical forecasts in history -two successful ones by the allies and one failure by the germans. on the allied side, six meteorologists working in three different teams were responsible for the d-day forecasts. the american team used an analogue method that compared the current weather with past conditions. their forecast was overly optimistic and would have resulted in disaster on june 5, 1944. the british proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) v admiralty and the british meteorological office urged delay. they were aided by the brilliant norwegian theoretician sverre petterssen (1898-1974), a giant in the field of weather analysis and forecasting and an international leader in meteorology during the mid-twentieth century. sverre petterssen, the bergen school, and the forecasts for dday, by james r. fleming, focuses on petterssen’s early career and contributions to the war effort, highlighting his role as the only norwegian-trained meteorologist involved in the contentious forecasts for d-day. the scandinavian tag-team: providers of atmospheric reality to numerical weather prediction efforts in the united states (1948-1955), by kristine c. harper, revisits the historiography of the meteorology project established by john von neumann at the institute for advanced study and assigns primary credit for the success of early numerical weather prediction (nwp) experiments to carl-gustav rossby, jule charney, and a series of scandinavian scientists who had theoretical training, practical experience, and sound meteorological intuition. they included harald sverdrup, jacob bjerknes, arnt eliassen, ragnar fjörtoft, bert bolin, ernst hovmöller, and roy berggren. harper argues that members of the scandinavian “tag-team,” were better prepared to answer the question, “is the computer generated representation of the atmosphere a valid one?” although most explanations of the rise of numerical modeling look to dramatic developments in computing technology, vladimir jankovic´ emphasizes local circumstances shaping yugoslav nwp in his paper, choosing the right axis: an institutional history of the belgrade eta forecast model. the eta model, conceived in 1972 by fedor mesinger and zavisa janjic, and first used for short-term forecasts at the yugoslav federal hydrometeorological institute and the institute of meteorology of the university of belgrade, provides a case study intended to alert us to the possibility that “non-western” socio-political actors could exert enough power to shape and “customize” local scientific research. the paper presents the early (and somewhat controversial) history of the model and examines its growth from a local yugoslavian innovation into a model now used for research purposes in more than twenty meteorological institutions throughout the world and for operational forecasting (since 1993) by the u.s. national centers for environmental prediction. maureen christie’s paper, data collection and the ozone hole: too much of a good thing? reminds us that in 1977 a new phenomenon in the atmosphere was recorded—a seasonal “hole” in the ozone layer over the antarctic at altitudes between 16 and 25 kilometers. although it shows up clearly in the archive of recorded measurements from 1977 onwards, there is no evidence that anyone noticed the phenomenon until 1981, and it was not until 1985 that it was first reported in the scientific research literature. given the growing worldwide concern about possible ozone depletion as a result of human activity, it is very surprising in these circumstances that the antarctic seasonal ozone depletion should have taken so long to be noticed and reported. christie’s paper presents reasons for the delay, including the sheer size of the available data-set and the consequent inaccessibility for casual and speculative examination. scholars wishing to examine meteorological records have been handicapped by the overwhelming number of collections and the dearth of guides and bibliographical tools to assist their efforts. in order to ameliorate this situation, roy e. goodman’s paper, archives, libraries and bibliography in the history of meteorology prior to 1900, provides an overview of pre-1900 resources for the history of meteorology. this introduction vi bibliography describes materials in printed, manuscript, cartographic and electronic formats, international in scope, culled from disciplines as diverse as medicine, geography, agriculture, economics, literature, art, and the popular press. as a result of a proposal submitted to the division of history of science in 1999, the ichm was founded at the 2001 international congress of history of science in mexico city. our bylaws include the following goals: a) to promote the scholarly study of the history of meteorology, climatology, and related sciences including their social and cultural aspects; b) to facilitate international cooperation, communication, and friendship among historians, philosophers, and scientists; c) to organize symposia at the international congresses of history of science, to sponsor or co-sponsor other meetings of similar character, and to disseminate the proceedings of these meetings; d) to promote identification, collection, preservation, and access to historical materials; e) to encourage the compilation of international historical bibliography; f) to support the broader goals of the dhs, iuhps, and icsu (international council of scientific unions). the web site of the ichm, http://www.meteohistory.org, contains current announcements, a directory of members, the bylaws,, an on-line membership form, and a growing list of links. i invite you to visit the website and consider joining the ichm. james r. fleming china, maine december 2004 acknowledgments cornelia luedecke and gregory t. cushman provided valuable editorial assistance and translation services. note a version of these proceedings is forthcoming from the division of history of science of the international union of history and philosophy of science. corresponding author giuditta parolini, tu berlin, giuditta.parolini@tu-berlin.de building networks of knowledge exchange in agricultural meteorology: the agro-meteorological service in french indochina giuditta parolini introduction since its inception, the science of meteorology has been marked by transnational ambitions. networks of observers spread across different nations and collecting meteorological observations can be dated back at least to the seventeenth century, when the italian accademia del cimento (academy of experiment) organised a pan-european network to gather weather data.1 in the second half of the nineteenth century, the transnational ambitions of meteorology were further strengthened with the creation of the international meteorological organization (imo), one of the first scientific organisations devoted to international cooperation. the imo was founded to establish global standards in meteorology and to promote the sharing of meteorological data and knowledge among the weather services of the participating countries.2 the imo members came from all over the world: from the european countries and their colonies, from russia and later the soviet union, from the united states and canada, from brazil and argentina, from japan and, after wwii, also from china. even though european members always formed the overall majority and the meetings of the organisation never took place outside of europe and north america, the imo remains a privileged context for examining the transnational aspects of making and communicating meteorological knowledge that are the focus of this special issue. the imo and its regular meetings—halted only during the two world wars—offered meteorologists the opportunity to discuss national practices with their peers, debate over the design of instruments for collecting and sharing meteorological data, and learn from each other. through these debates and collaborations, which are recorded in the proceedings of the imo meetings, networks of knowledge exchange were built and information on weather and climate circulated all over the 1 james r. fleming, “early history of the meteorological observing systems,” in sciences of the earth: an encyclopedia of events, people, and phenomena, ed. gregory a. good (new york and london: garland publishing inc., 1998), 556-558. 2 hendrik g. cannegieter, “the history of the international meteorological organisation 1872-1951,” annalen der meteorologie, neue folge, 1 (1963): 1–280; paul n. edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism,” osiris 21, no. 1 (2006): 229–50. mailto:giuditta.parolini@tu-berlin.de history of meteorology 9 (2020) 2 world. in my paper, i will use the imo technical commission on agriculture as a case study to discuss how these networks of knowledge exchange worked. the imo technical commission on agriculture was created in 1913 and held its last meeting in 1947.3 among its founding members were the director of the french weather bureau, meteorologist charles alfred angot (1848–1924), who had been teaching physics and meteorology at the national agronomy institute in paris since 1879; the geographer and meteorologist peter ivanovich brounov (1853–1927), who was a key figure in the development of agricultural meteorology in russia; the french rural economist louis dop (1866–1935), who was for many years the vice president of the international institute of agriculture (iia) and the person who first approached the imo with the proposal to set up a technical commission on agriculture; the german meteorologist richard börnstein (1852–1913), who had been collecting meteorological observations at prussian agricultural academies for decades; and the italian meteorologist luigi palazzo (1861–1933), the director of the central office for meteorology and geodynamics in rome, an institution which also wanted to promote agro-meteorological studies.4 angot, brounov, dop, börnstein, and palazzo recommended that the international meteorological committee, the imo’s steering body, create a permanent commission for agricultural meteorology. they argued that the novelty and the complexity of the problems posed by agricultural meteorology required an ad hoc commission and that this commission should be staffed not only by meteorologists and climatologists, but also by agronomists and botanists, as the problems of agricultural meteorology were multidisciplinary.5 the imo commission for agricultural meteorology was tasked with gathering information on correlations between weather, climate, and agricultural output, and with suggesting best practices for forecasting key events for farmers, such as imminent frosts. the commission’s members examined meteorological instruments and recording procedures employed in agricultural meteorology and made suggestions for increasing the number of stations collecting both meteorological and agricultural data. they also addressed the relevance of microclimatological factors to plant growth and the importance of preparing weather forecasts and communicating them to farmers. as envisioned by its founding fathers, the 3 the imo decided to establish a technical commission on agriculture in 1913, but world war i soon halted international cooperation in meteorology and the imo commission for agricultural meteorology held its first official meeting in paris in 1919 (cannegieter, “the history of the international meteorological organisation”, 199). the commission worked regularly during the interwar years, but with the outbreak of world war ii the imo’s activities again ceased. the commission held its last two meetings after world war ii, in 1946 and 1947. for the history of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology, see giuditta parolini, “the international meteorological organization and its commission for agricultural meteorology after wwi,” acta historica leopoldina, forthcoming in 2020, and giuditta parolini, sílvio r. dahmen, and sandra prado, “using network analysis to investigate the history of agricultural meteorology,” 13th workshop on historical network research, mainz: akademie der wissenschaften und der literatur, 2019, https://nats.hypotheses.org/files/2019/10/abstractsparticipants_optimized-1.pdf.parolini et al. 4 more biographical information on the scientists who promoted the imo technical commission on agriculture can be found in anonymous, “professor c. a. angot [obituary],” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 50, no. 211 (1924): 270–71; anonymous, “luigi palazzo, 1861–1933 [obituary],” terrestrial magnetism and atmospheric electricity 39, no. 1 (1934): 71–72; carl g. von klinckowstroem, “börnstein, richard,” in neue deutsche biographie 2 (online), 1955, https://www.deutsche-biographie.de/sfz5069.html. the iia was founded in rome in 1905 (asher hobson, the international institute of agriculture: an historical and critical analysis of its organization, activities and policies of administration (berkeley: university of california press, 1931)). its mission was broad and ranged from the collection of official statistics related to worldwide agricultural production to the application of scientific knowledge to farming. during the first half of the twentieth century it was one of the most influential agricultural organisations. today’s fao, the food and agricultural organization of the united nations, took over the iia’s legacy. 5 international meteorological organization, bericht über die versammlung des internationalen meteorologischen komitees, veröffentlichungen des königlich preussischen meteorologischen instituts, no. 260 (berlin: behrend & co., 1913). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 3 commission was not only staffed by meteorologists and climatologists, but also by agronomists, botanists, geographers, and statisticians who contributed their scientific expertise to solve problems in agricultural meteorology. over three decades, 132 people in total joined the imo technical commission on agriculture. of them, about one-third were based outside of europe and european russia. these extra-european members were located in america (from canada to argentina), africa, australia, and asia (fig. 1). they worked in independent states, but also in protectorates and colonies of european nations. their presence ensured that the imo’s work could circulate all over the world, from santiago de chile to tokyo to wellington. their role, however, was not merely to convey the information gathered in international scientific circles to their home countries. they also contributed to the knowledge-making process, because they had first-hand expertise in growing tea, coffee, cocoa, and other crops precious for european economies, but not suited to the temperate climate, and therefore not studied by european agronomists, meteorologists, and climatologists. i will argue that the imo commission for agricultural meteorology’s networks of knowledge exchange were not one-way routes departing from europe and leading to its present or former colonies or protectorates, but that they facilitated knowledge transfer towards europe as well as from europe. this is particularly evident in the case of the agro-meteorological service set up in french indochina by the agronomist and climatologist paul carton (1891– 1969).6 born at asnières, in normandy, carton received his training in agronomy, with a specialisation in tropical agriculture, at the french national institute of colonial agriculture.7 before moving to indochina, he worked as a technical writer for the iia in rome, and at this stage he became interested in the connections between weather, climate, and agriculture. these topics were widely discussed at the iia, as demonstrated by the participation of its vicepresident, louis dop, in the imo technical commission on agriculture. during his time in indochina, carton became a member of the imo commission and remained as such until the last meeting in 1947. he was also among the advisers who attended the first meeting of the commission for agricultural meteorology (cagm), which was reconstituted within the world meteorological organization in 1953.8 carton was a very active member of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology. he was eager to learn from the scientific and technological developments taking place in europe, but at the same time he was also ready to present the work his agrometeorological service did in indochina, and to point out the importance of studying tropical crops, such as rice, alongside temperate crops. furthermore, carton’s interests were not confined to agricultural meteorology: they also included the cognate discipline of agricultural ecology, and carton became a member of the commission for agricultural meteorology and ecology set up by the iia in rome.9 6 french indochina encompassed an area roughly comprising today’s vietnam and nearby territories in laos and cambodia. 7max vachon, ‘carton, paul’, in dictionnaire biographique d’outre-mer, 1975, https://wbis.degruyter.com/biographicdocument/r14688. 8 wmo, commission for agricultural meteorology (cagm): abridged final report of the first session, wmo publication no. 27 (geneva: wmo, 1954). 9 girolamo azzi and pietro r. pirotta, “international institute of agricultural ecology,” international review of the science and practice of agriculture, new series, 3, no. 3 (1925): 766–81. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 4 in my paper, i will use carton’s agro-meteorological service in french indochina as an example of the imo’s involvement in the circulation of meteorological knowledge between east and west. to provide a context for understanding the case of french indochina, i will begin with a discussion of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology and its commitment to facilitate knowledge exchange among its members. i will then provide an overview of the extra-european members and their involvement in the commission’s work before discussing the case of french indochina. for the latter, i will not only describe how the service was established, but also how carton used his membership in international organisations to acquire and share information on agricultural meteorology, and the reasons that brought him to pursue both agricultural meteorology and ecology. in conclusion, i will discuss how the networks of knowledge exchange established by the imo commission for agricultural meteorology were based on a two-way exchange of information and how this was necessary to acquire knowledge on key commodities produced in tropical areas and heavily used in europe. fig. 1. map displaying the location of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology’s members outside of europe. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 5 networks of knowledge exchange in twentieth-century agricultural meteorology in the twentieth century, agriculture was one of the first sectors to develop systematic methods for collecting and exploiting weather information.10 at the end of the nineteenth century, russia pioneered the creation of agro-meteorological services.11 the russian ministry of agriculture’s bureau of meteorology was established in 1896 and managed a network of agro-meteorological stations, which counted over 70 stations in 1912.12 peter ivanovich brounov, one of the imo technical commission on agriculture’s founding fathers, was a key figure in the development of agricultural meteorology in russia. brounov’s bureau in st. petersburg supervised the agricultural and meteorological observations collected by the russian stations, acquired the resulting data via questionnaires, and summarised and published these data. the russian agro-meteorological service had two main aims. the first was to study the correlations between crop growth and meteorological factors, and to produce forecasts useful for farmers. the second was to investigate the distribution of crops according to russian climatic regions and to suggest the best plant varieties for each area. if russia paved the way in agricultural meteorology, other countries quickly followed suit. by the early 1920s, the us weather bureau already had an established network of (mainly voluntary) observers based in the agricultural districts. the data collected were used to provide specialised services to farmers. the weather bureau produced daily or weekly bulletins of rainfall and temperature, and, when required, frost warnings, crop-weather bulletins, and so on. in the us, meteorological information was disseminated by telegraph, by telephone, and in print, because it was essential that it reach farmers quickly.13 several other nations, such as great britain, france, italy, poland, and japan, established agro-meteorological services or were interested in doing so during the first three decades of the twentieth century.14 these agro-meteorological services were staffed by meteorologists and agronomists and always relied on a network of local stations to collect both meteorological and agricultural data. they aided the national farming community by compiling weather bulletins and preparing weather forecasts, but they also promoted scientific investigations on the correlation between weather and agricultural output. the work of agro-meteorological services usually also included research on the influence that climate, in general, and microclimate, in particular, had on plant growth.15 10 vladimir janković, “working with weather: atmospheric resources, climate variability and the rise of industrial meteorology, 1950-2010,” history of meteorology 7 (2015): 99. 11 john w. smith, agricultural meteorology: the effect of weather on crops (new york: the macmillan company, 1920), 24–25. 12 peter i. brounov, “some considerations of the organization of the agricultural meteorological service,” bulletin of foreign agricultural intelligence 6 (1916): 309–14. 13 gustavus a. weber, the weather bureau: its history, activities and organization, service monograph of the united states government no. 9 (new york and london: d. appleton and company, 1922). 14 girolamo azzi, “per la organizzazione di un servizio di meteorologia agraria,” rivista meteorico-agraria 33, no. 36 (1912); organisation météorologique internationale, commission de météorologie agricole: procés verbaux de la 2ième réunion, zurich, 1926 (stockholm: statens meteorologisk-hydrografiska anstalt no. 256, 1927); ministry of agriculture and fisheries, “the weather and agriculture in the british empire,” journal of the ministry of agriculture 36 (1929): 657–62; émile delcambre, “sur l’activité scientifique de l’office national météorologique, notamment dans ses rapports avec l’agriculture,” comptes rendus hebdomadaires des séances de l’académie d’agriculture de france 19 (1933): 413–23; jean lugeon, les travaux de météorologie agricole de l’institut national météorologique de pologne (warsaw: wydawnictwo specjalne z okazji zjazdu miedzynarodowej organizacji meteorologicznej, 1935). 15 rudolf geiger, das klima der bodennahen luftschicht: ein lehrbuch der mikroklimatologie. (braunschweig: verlag friedrich vieweg and sohn, 1927); girolamo azzi, le climat du blé dans le monde: les bases écologiques de la culture mondiale du blé (rome: institut international d’agriculture, 1930). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 6 climatological considerations were essential to select the varieties best suited for cultivation in a certain area. better knowledge of microclimatology was also crucial, because the atmospheric layers closer to the ground and the soil conditions were key factors in the growth of crops and fruit trees. the interest in climatological and microclimatological studies was shared by the cognate discipline of agricultural ecology, which also developed in the early twentieth century alongside agricultural meteorology. girolamo azzi, a founding father of agricultural ecology,16 defined it as: the study of the physical characteristics of environment, climate and soil, in relation to the development of agricultural plants, and to the yield of such plants from the quantitative (amount of the product), qualitative (quality of the product), and generative (characters of the seed) points of view.17 azzi’s monograph, le climat du blé dans le monde (1930) (wheat climates of the earth), which was aptly subtitled les bases écologiques de la culture mondiale du blé (the ecological basis of worldwide wheat cultivation), was a first example of a global study that examined both climatological and agricultural factors in the cultivation of wheat, the main crop grown in temperate regions.18,19 the project started in 1919, when memories of the famine and starvation caused by world war i in several european countries were still a painful memory. the iia promoted the research and assigned it to azzi, due to his long-term involvement in agricultural ecology in italy. the data collection work lasted for years and azzi’s research was eventually submitted as a report to the first international conference on wheat, held in rome in 1927. during this meeting, which was sponsored by the italian fascist government, it was decided to establish an international network of agro-ecological stations to monitor wheat cultivation worldwide. however, the project never really took off, because the italian fascist government’s politics interfered with the iia’s scientific activity and hindered international collaboration. the two domains of agricultural meteorology and ecology were interconnected and practitioners of agricultural ecology, such as girolamo azzi, were also members of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology. azzi’s work on agricultural ecology deserves a special mention in this paper, because it had a long-lasting influence on paul carton and on his agro-meteorological service in french indochina. carton met azzi early on in his career, while he was working at the iia in rome, and their friendship continued throughout the decades. he regularly cited azzi’s publications in his scientific papers and, in the 1950s, he wrote the preface for the french edition of azzi’s textbook on agricultural ecology.20 the imo commission for agricultural meteorology’s mission was to facilitate knowledge exchange among the participating nations. the commission was a forum for discussing the meteorological data useful in agricultural meteorology and the most suitable instruments for measuring and collecting them. it enabled the exchange of best practices in data management and weather forecasting and the sharing of references to the publications 16 corey ross, ecology and power in the age of empire: europe and the transformation of the tropical world (oxford: oxford university press, 2017), 336. 17 girolamo azzi, agricultural ecology (london: constable and company, 1956), xiii. the original italian version was published in the 1920s. 18 azzi, le climat du blé dans le monde. 19 if not otherwise specified, all the translations from french are mine. 20 girolamo azzi, écologie agricole (paris: ballière, 1954). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 7 produced by each nation.21 as part of its mission, the commission also actively promoted international cooperation in setting up observational schemes in agricultural meteorology, for instance in phenology, lobbied for the development of worldwide experimental schemes for testing the correlation between weather conditions and crop growth, and liaised with other international organisations interested in agricultural meteorology, such as the iia. almost 40 nations and their colonial empires were represented in the imo commission for agricultural meteorology during its existence. this wide geographic distribution was a resource for the commission’s work, as agriculture is a geographically-located enterprise and work in agricultural meteorology can only be conducted where the crops grow.22 extensive geographic coverage was also essential to ensure the success of the commission’s global observational and experimental schemes. the extra-european members contributed by bringing their experiences with tropical crops such as tea, coffee, and cocoa, which were so relevant for western economies in the first half of the twentieth century. agronomists and meteorologists based in europe had no direct knowledge of these crops, whose successful cultivation required skills and techniques very different from those employed for temperate crops. in the following section, i will therefore take a closer look at the members of the imo commission based outside of europe and at their contributions. from this brief survey, it will become apparent that carton was one of the commission’s most enterprising members and that he used the commission as a forum for acquiring knowledge of other countries’ best practices, but also to disseminate information on the work of his service in indochina. extra-european members of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology when the imo commission for agricultural meteorology was established in 1913, canada was the only extra-european country represented, but when the commission was officially re-appointed after world war i, there were also members based in australia and french syria (now lebanon). during the interwar years, members of the commission could be found in brazil, argentina, chile, south africa, (british) east africa, morocco, india, batavia, sri lanka, french indochina, new zealand, and japan. the geographic distribution widened further after world war ii, when members from china, palestine, egypt, rhodesia, uruguay, and peru also joined the commission. a few of these members joined the commission for only a short time, while others, like carton, maintained their association for decades and actively contributed to the commission’s work (fig. 1 and table 1). the commission held regular meetings during the interwar years and after world war ii. however, only a very limited number of members could attend these meetings, and the commission’s work was mainly done via the correspondence network built around its president.23 the president was in charge of producing regular reports, circulating them among the members, organising the publication of the commission proceedings, and collecting suggestions about topics to be discussed at forthcoming meetings. while the original correspondence is not available, the printed proceedings still provide a selection of these letters 21 the proceedings of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology contain several short bibliographies of the publications produced by each nation on weather and crops. the creation of a journal of agricultural meteorology was also discussed, but not approved due to lack of resources. the imo was, in fact, an organisation without an official status. it had only a small budget that just sufficed to support its secretariat, the publication of the conference proceedings, and a few other occasional publications considered of general interest for meteorologists. 22 giuditta parolini, “charting the history of agricultural experiments,” history and philosophy of the life sciences 37, no. 3 (2015): 231–41. 23 even the members of the commission based in europe were often prevented from attending the meetings in person and participated in the commission’s work by letter and telegram. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 8 and allow us to reconstruct the contributions individual members made to the commission’s work. despite delays due to the postal system, participation by correspondence facilitated the involvement of the extra-european members in the commission’s activities. for instance, several meteorological services based outside of europe, such as the egyptian meteorological service and the tokyo central meteorological observatory, answered the questionnaire circulated in the early 1920s, which aimed to understand what kind of national agrometeorological services were in operation and their agendas.24 things did not always proceed smoothly. for instance, carton was able to send his comments on the agenda set for the 1929 meeting only later than requested, due to “[l’] éloignement de l’indochine” (the remoteness of indochina) and the consequent delays in receiving the communications sent by the commission’s president.25 eventually, however, carton’s large correspondence on ten different topics, found a space in the printed proceedings. always by correspondence, the commission collected lists of publications on agricultural meteorology produced in the participating nations and members often sent in updates on their national services. this practice continued throughout the years. for instance, the argentinian meteorological service, represented at the time by the agronomist juan jacinto burgos, supplied several items submitted for the last meeting in toronto.26 these publications concerned multiple topics, ranging from the description of the most recent developments of argentina’s agro-meteorological service to scientific studies concerning frost prediction, soil moisture, and phenology. among the members based outside of europe, paul carton stands out for his frequent contributions to the commission’s work in the interwar years. from 1923, when he joined the imo commission, he began to submit proposals on agricultural meteorology, with a specific focus on the tropical regions.27 in his proposals he stressed both methodological issues (for instance, the co-existence of meteorological and ecological aspects in the investigations on weather, climate, and agriculture conducted by agro-meteorological services) and technical problems (such as the standardisation of instruments used by agro-meteorological stations). carton was aware of the scarce representation that tropical agriculture received in international organisations and tried to address this gap by providing detailed information on his work in indochina. in response to the imo commission’s questionnaire of the early 1920s, carton produced a long report on the agro-meteorological service that he was developing.28,29 as part of the extensive correspondence between carton and the president of the imo 24 organisation météorologique internationale, commission de météorologie agricole: procès verbaux de la 2ième réunion, zurich 1926, 34-85. 25 organisation météorologique internationale, commission de météorologie agricole: procès verbaux de la 3ième réunion, copenhague, 1929 (stockholm: statens meteorologisk-hydrografiska anstalt 276, 1929), 51. 26 organisation météorologique internationale, commission for agricultural meteorology abridged final report, toronto, august 1947 (lausanne: imprimerie la concorde, 1949), 8–11. 27 international meteorological organization, report of the international meteorological conference of directors and of the meeting of the international meteorological committee, utrecht, 1923 (utrecht: koninklijk nederlandsch meteorologisch instituut, 1924), 155–56. 28 organisation météorologique internationale, commission de météorologie agricole: procès verbaux de la 2ième réunion, zurich, 1926. 29 the report was written in collaboration with his colleague étienne bruzon, the director of the indochina central observatory. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 9 commission in 1929, this report was amended to provide information on the progress made during the intervening years and carton regularly sent in updates afterwards.30 however, carton’s contributions to the commission’s work went well beyond detailed reports on agro-meteorology in indochina. they concerned wider topics, such as the relationship between agricultural meteorology and agricultural ecology, and they also dealt with practical details, such as the suggestion to publish the commission’s proceedings in both english and french. carton never had an opportunity to attend the interwar meetings of the commission, but he was always ready to give his opinion on the topics discussed, such as the best time unit to be employed in agricultural meteorology or the most suitable equipment to monitor microclimatological variables.31 another recurrent topic in carton’s correspondence was the relationship between the imo commission for agricultural meteorology and the iia commission on agricultural meteorology and ecology. as a member of both commissions, carton was eager to promote their cooperation and to have an opportunity to participate in their work as a correspondent. to strengthen cooperation, he suggested that the imo commission invite the members of the iia commission to its meetings.32 in addition, he constantly brought relevant topics examined by the iia to the attention of the imo commission, such as the methodologies to be employed in agricultural meteorology and the study of local climate and its influence on plant growth.33 carton’s active role in the international circles of agricultural meteorology was not only justified by scientific curiosity. in his communications with the president of the imo commission, he repeatedly stressed the economic value of agricultural meteorology and ecology and the necessity of including tropical crops in scientific investigations: the members of the [imo and iia] commissions have been mainly interested in temperate crops. however, in the global economy, tropical crops are of equal importance. consequently, it seems to me essential that an agreement be reached between the two commissions for a corresponding ecological study of tropical crops, in particular: rice (whose cultivation extends to temperate countries), coffee, tea, cotton and hevea [the rubber tree]. unfortunately, very few representatives of tropical agriculture attend the meetings of the two commissions. therefore, in order to establish the work programme to be undertaken and to carry it out successfully, it seems desirable that these experts should be consulted and be able to make contacts with each other.34 carton suggested that the iia act as a mediator in the effort to put tropical countries and their precious crops on the map, and constantly complained when the time allocated for commenting 30 organisation météorologique internationale, commission de météorologie agricole: procès verbaux de la 3ième réunion, copenhague, 1929 (stockholm: statens meteorologisk-hydrografiska anstalt no. 276, 1929), 62–65. 31 organisation météorologique internationale, procès verbaux de la 3ième réunion, copenhague, 1929, 55. 32 organisation météorologique internationale, commission de meteorologie agricole: procès verbaux des seances de munich, 19–21 septembre 1932 (utrecht: organisation météorologique internationale no. 14, 1933), 9. 33 organisation météorologique internationale, commission de météorologie agricole: procés verbaux de la 3ième réunion, copenhague, 1929, 51–54. 34 “ce sont surtout les plantes des pays tempérés qu’ont eu en vue les membres des commissions. or, dans l’économie mondiale, les plantes des pays tropicaux sont d’une égale importance. en consequence, il m’apparaît indispensable qu’une entente ait lieu entre les deux commissions en vue d’une étude écologique correspondante des plantes tropicales de grande culture, en particulier: le riz (dont la culture s’étend d’ailleurs aux pays tempérés), le caféier, le théier, le cotonnier et l’hévéa. malheureusement, lors des réunions des deux commissions, très rares sont les représentants de l'agriculture tropicale. aussi, pour établir le programme de l'étude à entreprendre et pour mener à bien son exécution, il semble qu’il serait désirable que ceux-ci fussent consultés et pussent entrer en relation entre eux” (organisation météorologique internationale, procès verbaux de la 3ième réunion, copenhague, 1929, pp. 61–62). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 10 on reports and initiatives was inadequate to allow members based outside of europe to provide their opinion by correspondence.35 the coexistence of scientific knowledge on agricultural meteorology and ecology was always coupled with attention to the economic value of this knowledge in the agrometeorological service that carton set up in french indochina. in this approach, carton was certainly faithful to azzi’s understanding of agricultural ecology (and meteorology) as practical sciences useful in farm management.36 name city nation geography (history) balkan, aziz ankara turkey bamford, alec joscelyne colombo sri lanka (british colony) bates, daniel cross wellington new zealand (british dominion) bergeiro, josé maria montevideo uruguay berloty, (révérend père) bonaventure ksara lebanon (french protectorate) bernard, etienne a. yangambi democratic republic of congo (belgian colony) de boer, herman johannes batavia indonesia (dutch colony) boughner, clarence clarkson toronto canada (british dominion) burgos, juan jacinto buenos aires argentina carton, paul hanoi vietnam (french colony) connor, abraham james toronto canada (british dominion) fahmy, hassan cairo egypt feige, rudolf jerusalem palestine (british mandate) ferraz, joaquim de sampaio rio de janeiro brazil foley, james charles melbourne australia (british dominion) girola, carlos de alberti buenos aires argentina hirata, tokutarō tokyo japan hirschhorn, julio buenos aires argentina jacobs, woodrow cooper washington usa kincer, joseph burton washington usa normand, charles william blyth pune india (british colony) nuño, waldo santiago de chile chile okada, takematsu tokyo japan patterson, john toronto canada (british dominion) 35 organisation météorologique internationale, commission de météorologie agricole: procès verbaux de la 3ième réunion. copenhague, 1929, 53. 36 azzi, agricultural ecology, xii. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 11 peake, j. s. harare zimbabwe (british colony) pires xavier, raul rio de janeiro brazil putnam, donald fulton toronto canada (british dominion) ripley, philip oscar ottawa canada (british dominion) roy, a. k. kolkata india (british colony) sarle, charles faye washington usa (british colony) schindler, pierre casablanca morocco (french colony) seelye, cassilis james wellington new zealand (british dominion) shutt, frank thomas ottawa canada (british dominion) smit, h. p. pretoria south africa (british dominion) smith, john warren washington usa stewart, charles m. pretoria south africa (british dominion) sutton, l. j. cairo egypt t'u, chang wang nanking china taylor, thomas griffith melbourne/ chicago/ toronto australia (british dominion)/moved to usa/moved to canada (british dominion) tiscornia, josé montevideo uruguay walter, albert nairobi kenya (british colony) zender honig, jacobo lima peru tab. 1. members of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology not based in europe or european russia. data extracted from giuditta parolini, “membership of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology (1913-1947)”, mendeley data, 2020, v1. http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/pds6tz443t.1. the agro-meteorological service in french indochina french colonial expansion in indochina started in the 1860s in the area corresponding to today’s south vietnam. by the 1880s, the territories under french rule extended to annam and tonkin, and to nearby territories in cambodia and laos. these areas were formally brought together in the late 1880s in the union indochinoise française (french indochinese union).37 indochina was one of the “new” colonies acquired by france after the napoleonic era, and became part of a colonial empire whose geographic extension was second only to that of the british empire at the beginning of the twentieth century. in the 1930s, at the time of its maximum expansion, the french colonial empire counted 65 million inhabitants distributed in four continents: america, africa, asia, and oceania.38 the systematic exploitation of natural resources in indochina started at the turn of the twentieth century, when the french colonial government, its scientific institutions (such as the pasteur institute), and private businesses joined forces to establish profitable plantations. in 37 nicola cooper, france in indochina: colonial encounters (oxford: berg publishers, 2001). 38 michael a. osborne, “science and the french empire,” isis 96, no. 1 (2005): 80–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/pds6tz443t.1 history of meteorology 9 (2020) 12 this mise en valeur (economic development) of the french colonies, science and scientific institutions played a primary role, especially after world war i.39 as part of this effort, agricultural services and botanical research were among the first sectors to be reorganised after the conflict. in indochina the french colonisers were mainly interested in primary resources such as rice, rubber, and coffee, and, as such, agricultural development was key to ensuring the colony’s increased profitability. in 1924 the colonial government established the inspection générale de l’agriculture, de l’elevage et des forêts (general inspectorate for agriculture, breeding, and forestry) and tasked it with the overall supervision and coordination of the agricultural services of the various provinces of the indochinese union.40 capital was also important for the economic development of agriculture in indochina, and it was provided by, among others, the banque de l’indochine (bank of indochina), an institution created in the late nineteenth century to support french colonial expansion in asia. in addition, the political authorities in paris constantly implemented interventionist strategies to support the colonial economy in indochina, especially during the global recession of the early 1930s.41 by the late 1930s, rice and natural rubber extracted from hevea were the agricultural commodities that offered the highest returns and the french colonial administration focused on indochina as one of the most promising colonial economies.42 carton left france for indochina in november 1920 and joined the french colonial service as director of the agronomy section of the institute scientifique de l’indochine (indochina scientific institute).43 he maintained this position until 1922, when he became director of the bureau des renseignements agricoles (agricultural information bureau), which was part of the french colonial government’s economic services in indochina. in 1927, he was appointed chief of the bureau de climatologie et de météorologie agricole (bureau of climatology and agricultural meteorology) and he maintained this position until 1936, when he moved on to other advisory and teaching roles within indochina’s agricultural services. carton worked for over 20 years in indochina and built his scientific career on the work in agricultural meteorology and ecology he did there.44 he regularly published scientific contributions on weather, climate, and their impact on plant growth in the bulletin économique de l’indochine (economic bulletin of indochina), in french journals of colonial agronomy (such as agronomie colonial (colonial agronomy) and agronomie tropicale (tropical agronomy)), and as part of the publications sponsored by the colonial administration.45 carton also wrote a textbook on agricultural ecology in connection with his teaching work at the ecole 39 christophe bonneuil, des savants pour l’empire: la structuration des recherches scientifiques colonials au temps de ‘la mise en valeur des colonies françaises,’ 1917–1945. (paris: éditions de l’orstom, 1991). 40 paul carton, la météorologie agricole en indochine (hanoi: imprimerie d’extrême-orient, 1930). 41 jonathan a. bone, “rice, rubber, and development policies: the mise en valeur of french indochina on the eve of the second world war,” proceedings of the meeting of the french colonial historical society 16 (1992): 154–80. 42 michitake aso, ‘the scientist, the governor, and the planter: the political economy of agricultural knowledge in indochina during the creation of a ‘science of rubber,’ 1900–1940,” east asian science, technology and society 3, no. 2–3 (2009): 232. 43 all the biographic information on carton is extracted from vachon, “carton, paul”. 44 during the 1930s, carton received awards from the french agricultural academy and the french academy of sciences for his work in indochina. 45 émile bruzon and paul carton, le climat de l’indochine et les typhons de la mer de chine (hanoi: imprimerie d’extrêmeorient, 1930); paul carton, contribution à l’étude du régime pluviométrique de l’indochine (hanoi: gouvernement général de l’indochine, 1935). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 13 supérieure d’agriculture et de silviculture de l’indochine (indochina college for agriculture and forestry).46 as chief of the bureau of climatology and agricultural meteorology, carton was able to reorganise and expand the existing network of stations collecting meteorological, agricultural, and rainfall data, and to establish a service that addressed both questions of agricultural ecology and agricultural meteorology in the interest of farmers, in particular the owners of large plantations. as argued by michitake aso, plantation agriculture was key to promoting ecological studies in indochina, both in terms of the plant-environment relationship (as in carton’s case) and the human-environment relationship (for instance, regarding diseases which affected plantation workers, such as malaria).47 when he prepared the 1926 report on his service, carton stated that indochina did not yet have an independent agro-meteorological service, because it was “un pays tropical de colonisation relativemente récente” (a tropical country of comparatively recent colonisation). yet, the situation was changing rapidly, because the french colonial administration wanted to make the most of the natural resources available in the area. technical and scientific services for agriculture were expanding and indochina was entering into a period of unprecedent economic growth, with more and more requests for land concessions and a constant increase in the amount of cultivated land.48 tropical crops such as coffee, tea, rice, and hevea prospered in indochina’s climate, and carton’s agro-meteorological service regularly collected observations on these plants for meteorological and ecological studies.49 carton’s bureau was based at the central meteorological observatory in phu lien, and indochina’s agro-meteorology service was run cooperatively by the colonial administration’s agricultural and meteorological departments. the bureau was also in regular contact with the general inspectorate for agriculture, breeding, and forestry, the directors of the agricultural stations, and the plantation owners.50 by the early 1930s, the service was well-established and carton could prepare a comprehensive report on its current state and plans for further development.51 the service relied on a complex network of meteorological, climatological, and pluviometric stations.52 meteorological and climatological stations, which required trained staff and consistent instrumentation, were distributed only in key areas, such as the coast of the gulf of tonkin, the coast of the south china sea, the mekong river and the annamese mountains (fig. 2). on the contrary, the pluviometric stations were distributed all over indochina because they were comparatively easy to run and maintain, as they only required a rain gauge (fig. 3). yet, the reason for the proliferation of the pluviometric stations was not merely the modest investment required in establishing them. rainfall data were extremely 46 paul carton, cours de climatologie et d’écologie (hanoi: gouvernement général de l’indochine, inspection générale de l’agriculture et de l’élevage, école supérieure d’agriculture de l’indochine, 1938). 47 michitake aso, rubber and the making of vietnam: an ecological history, 1897–1975 (chapel hill: the university of north carolina press, 2018), 131. 48 organisation météorologique internationale, commission de météorologie agricole: procès verbaux de la 2ième réunion, zurich, 1926, 46–51. 49 paul carton, la météorologie et ses applications dans les pays tropicaux (hanoi: imprimerie d’extrême-orient, 1930). 50 organisation météorologique internationale, commission de meteorologie agricole: procès verbaux des séances de munich, 19–21 septembre 1932, 24. 51 carton, la météorologie et ses applications dans les pays tropicaux. 52 the description of indochina’s agro-meteorological service is extracted from carton (carton, la météorologie agricole en indochine; organisation météorologique internationale, commission de meteorologie agricole: procès verbaux des séances de munich, 19–21 septembre 1932, 112–16.). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 14 precious for planters, because they gave indications of the best times to sow and harvest, as water availability was important for the growth of tropical crops such as rice. rainfall distribution was also key to agro-meteorological and agro-ecological investigations because it was one of the factors that most influenced indochina’s climate and carton devoted detailed studies to this topic.53 indochina’s meteorological stations were mainly staffed by personnel of the meteorological services, who gathered data for weather forecasts. according to the number of daily observations taken (five or three), the stations were divided into first order stations and second order stations. there were also a few semaphoric stations which monitored ship traffic and collected meteorological observations. to facilitate communications, telegraphs connected all the meteorological stations to the central observatory, where the weather maps were prepared. the climatological stations were staffed mainly by personnel of the agricultural services, who gathered data specific to agro-meteorological and agro-ecological studies. the agricultural services staff collected detailed qualitative and quantitative observations on the main crops by following the requests codified in the forms specifically designed by carton’s service.54 the climatological stations were not directly connected by telegraph to the central observatory and usually only mailed a monthly summary of their data to the observatory. alongside the official climatological stations sponsored by the french colonial government, the pasteur institute also supported climatological stations on plantations, as agrometeorological information helped plantation managers to plan their operations more efficiently. carton’s bureau collected, analysed, and published the combined agricultural and meteorological data. the bureau also acted as a central repository for literature on climatology and agricultural meteorology for tropical crops. in association with the colonial services and the companies that managed the plantations, carton also organised experimental work in agrometeorology and agro-ecology and published the results of these studies. meteorological and climatological stations in french indochina had slightly different equipment, because, as mentioned, they served different purposes. only meteorological stations had mercury barometers as pressure was a key variable for preparing weather charts, while only climatological stations gathered data on the air temperature above the soil, because this was a crucial factor in microclimatological studies on the correlation between plant growth and weather conditions. the meteorological instruments and the instrument shelters used in indochina were in many cases modified versions of european ones, although in some instances—for example, the weather vane adopted by the data collecting stations—they were designed ad hoc by the staff of the central observatory. many of the meteorological instruments used by the indochina service were selfrecording because there was not enough staff to attend regularly to the instruments and take the readings at the required times. the problem posed by the insufficient staff was also heightened by the rapid expansion of the indochinese agro-meteorological service, which grew from fewer than 30 stations in 1925–1926 to a complex network of over 500 stations six years later. in 1932, 36 of these stations were meteorological, 62 climatological, and 437 pluviometric. the growth of the service was prompted by an increase in the number of plantations and the consequent requests of support from plantation owners, as well as by the 53 carton, contribution à l’étude du régime pluviométrique de l’indochine. 54 the forms can be found in carton, la météorologie et ses applications dans les pays tropicaux. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 15 development of aviation and the necessity for more detailed and reliable weather forecasts for flights in indochina. the agro-meteorological service’s stations were manned by local and european staff working for the agricultural, forestry, and meteorological services of the french colonial administration. in addition, missionaries, members of the pasteur institute in indochina, representatives of the indochinese sugar industry, staff of the michelin company (which owned extensive hevea plantations), and staff of local hospitals contributed to collect weather and crop data.55 we do not know anything in detail about the local staff, except that they were trained in the institutions established by the french colonial government, such as the indochina central observatory, before beginning fieldwork. in his scientific publications, carton does not provide information on local meteorological and agricultural practices, because, as many of his contemporaries, he did not pay much attention to local knowledge.56 yet, his agrometeorological service could not have existed without the native staff manning meteorological, climatological, and pluviometric stations. furthermore, carton and colleagues could not ignore local agricultural practices, when the control of crop pests, such as rice parasites, was at stake.57 the agro-meteorological service in indochina pursued research in agricultural ecology by investigating the relationship between the crops of economic interest to the french colonisers and the local environment (soil type, humidity, solar radiation, etc.). carton provided a very specific reason for working on ecological as well as meteorological issues: he argued that in the tropics, the quality of weather forecasts was limited by the small network of data collecting stations and by the scarce staff available for data analysis. the weather bulletins produced, therefore, might be suitable for aviation and navigation, but were not detailed enough for agriculture, where the only valuable forecasts were those that could give precise indications to farmers about the best time to sow and harvest, and that aided in the management of the farming operations.58 for this reason, carton advocated the ecological approach, where the relationship between weather factors and plant growth was investigated according to the long-term perspective of the climate, not the short-term perspective of the weather. carton conceived of climate as an average of meteorological factors, such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and rainfall, and he saw the main task of agricultural ecology as assisting in “adapting crops to the climate, through the choice of new varieties and of judiciously designed cultivation methods applied at the most appropriate times”.59,60 carton’s agro-ecological choice was motivated by the practical use of agro-meteorological knowledge in french indochina. to transform the recently colonised area into a profitable enterprise, the french colonisers had to understand what crops could thrive in the area and how their productivity could be enhanced 55 a comprehensive list of stations and their staff can be found in the 1932 proceedings of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology (organisation météorologique internationale, commission de meteorologie agricole: procès verbaux des séances de munich, 19–21 septembre 1932, 113–14.). 56 aso, rubber and the making of vietnam, 147. 57 f. bugnicourt, “principaux cryptogames parasites du riz en indochine et traitement à leur opposer,” bulletin économique de l’indochine (1934): 1188. 58 the u. s. weather bureau recognised the importance of local weather forecasts and produced specific bulletins for each cultural district (organisation météorologique internationale, commission de météorologie agricole: procès verbaux de la 2ième réunion, zurich, 1926, 42–44). the most famous activity of this kind is probably california’s citrus fruit frost service (floyd d. young, frost and the prevention of damage by it (washington, d. c.: u.s. department of agriculture, 1920)). 59 original text in french: “adapter les cultures au climat, par le choix des variétés nouvelles et par des méthodes de culture judicieusement conçues et appliquées aux époques les plus convenables”. 60 carton, la météorologie agricole en indochine, 7. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 16 by exploiting indochina’s environmental conditions. as aso argued, ecology was a key asset in establishing hevea plantations in indochina, but more generally it supported the production of agricultural commodities such as tea, coffee, and rice.61 carton’s description of the key aspects of agricultural ecology and its economic value is indebted to girolamo azzi’s theories, but carton’s bureau constantly worked to adapt agrometeorological instruments and theories developed in europe to indochina’s climate.62 this was not a small task, because the scientific knowledge discussed in the western circles of which carton was a member had been produced in environmental conditions completely different from those of indochina. for instance, when carton opened indochina’s first forestry station, which was located at trang-bôm, in the south of the country, he was inspired by the work done in swedish and french forests, but the problems he had to deal with were completely different from those of the studies he referred to. the fluctuations in temperature, humidity, and evaporation that created indochina’s forest microclimate and the causes of soil acidification in the french colony were very different from those in europe. swedish and french studies provided suggestions, but carton could only approach the problem by testing and collecting local data in order to understand what observations were meaningful and how they could be analysed and interpreted. as in forestry, also in agriculture theories were imported from the west, but they could only be valuable, after being tried and tested on indochinese soil and radically modified to account for the local climate and its influence on plant growth. in turn, the results of these investigations attracted interest in western scientific circles, which did not have first-hand experience of environmental conditions in the european colonies, but which assisted in the exploitation of the colonies’ agricultural and forestry resources. indochina was primarily an economic asset for france, and associations like the paris-based association colonies-sciences (acs) ensured that carton’s work in agricultural ecology found an audience in the homeland, where meteorologists and agronomists were not so receptive of ecological thinking in the 1920s.63 during the interwar years, the acs, which was supported by banks (in particular, the bank of indochina) and by large corporations, was the main association that brought together scientists, colonial administrators, and economists interested in developing the french colonies. the acs promoted scientific studies in the colonies and circulated the resultant technical knowledge within the french political and economic circles in charge of the colonial administration.64 there is, therefore, scope in the concluding section of the paper for a reflection on the exchange of meteorological knowledge between east and west, and for a discussion of the role that international bodies, such as the imo commission for agricultural meteorology, had in this exchange. 61 aso, rubber and the making of vietnam. 62 carton, la météorologie et ses applications dans les pays tropicaux. 63 michitake aso, ‘how nature works: experts, ecology, and rubber plantations in colonial southeast asia, 1919–1939,” in comparing apples, oranges, and cotton: environmental histories of the plantations, ed. frank uekotter (new york: campus verlag, 2014). 64 bonneuil, des savants pour l’empire, chapter ii. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 17 fig. 2. map displaying meteorological and climatological stations in french indochina in 1930. the image is extracted from a digitised copy of paul carton, la météorologie agricole en indochine (hanoi: imprimerie d’extrême-orient, 1930). (source: gallica.bnf.fr) history of meteorology 9 (2020) 18 fig. 3. map displaying the network of pluviometric stations in french indochina in 1930. the image is extracted from a digitised copy of paul carton, la météorologie agricole en indochine (hanoi: imprimerie d’extrême-orient, 1930). (source: gallica.bnf.fr) history of meteorology 9 (2020) 19 agro-meteorological knowledge between east and west as argued by fleming, janković, and coen, histories of weather and climate must take into account both global and local perspectives.65 on the one hand, meteorology, as practiced on an international scale by the imo, can be considered a case of “infrastructural globalism”.66 on the other hand, though, “surveillance, control, and domination” required meteorological and climatological knowledge produced locally, especially in the european colonisation of the tropics.67 the coexistence of global and local factors is evident in the networks of knowledge exchange built by the imo commission for agricultural meteorology and in the way meteorological and climatological information circulated through these networks. the imo commission’s success as an international body depended on the agro-meteorological work done locally by its members and on their willingness to share their knowledge in an international context. without this interplay of global and local knowledge, first-hand information on tropical crops would not have reached european scientific circles and worldwide observational and experimental schemes in agricultural meteorology would not have been established. the agro-meteorological service in french indochina i examined in my paper offers a clear example of this interplay of global and local perspectives in meteorology, with particular reference to the circulation of weather and climate information between east and west. it is true that most of the meteorological instruments employed in indochina were manufactured in france, that the key people who managed the agro-meteorological service were members of the french colonial establishment trained in european institutions, and that the service was run according to western standards; yet, it would be misleading to conclude that the exchange of agro-meteorological knowledge was one-way only, from europe to indochina. to succeed in its mission—that is, to support colonial agriculture and in particular the development of large and profitable plantations for european companies—carton’s agro-meteorological service had to modify meteorological instruments and make them suitable for tropical conditions. carton also had to adapt western ideas on agricultural meteorology, developed where weather services had been at work for decades and tested only on crops grown in temperate areas, to the specificities of a newly colonised region, indochina, where infrastructures for collecting and communicating weather data were still limited and where tropical crops were cultivated. in response to the limitations of weather forecasting in indochina, carton made agricultural ecology an integral part of his agro-meteorological service and shifted the focus from preparing weather bulletins, which was not an achievable goal in the recently colonised area, to mapping and understanding the local climate. the starting point for carton’s investigations in agricultural ecology were the theories developed by the italian girolamo azzi, who studied wheat extensively, but these theories could not be transposed verbatim to the study of tropical crops. carton and his fellow colonial officers had to gather data on the response of plant varieties to indochina’s climate and organise experimental work on tropical crops in collaboration with local plantation owners. this local research was a necessary step for gathering climatological and microclimatological knowledge which could be useful in the successful cultivation of crops profitable for the french colonisers. yet, carton’s work did not remain confined to the local domain of indochina. the scientific experience gained from 65 james r. fleming, vladimir janković, and deborah r. coen, eds., intimate universality: local and global themes in the history of weather and climate (sagamore beach: science history publications, 2006). 66 edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism.” 67 fleming, janković, and coen, intimate universality, xi. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 20 tropical crops flowed back to europe through carton’s extensive correspondence with the presidents of the imo commission and enabled the commission to include tropical crops in its debates. moreover, as pointed out before, carton’s research on agricultural ecology was brought to the attention of french agronomists and meteorologists, through associations like the acs. it would be simplistic, therefore, to envision the imo commission for agricultural meteorology as an organisation interested only in exporting knowledge from europe to its colonies. the commission was also eager to learn from the work done by the non-european members and recognised that tropical crops were an essential part of the global economy in the first half of the twentieth century. it would be very interesting to extend the present investigation beyond indochina and examine how the work of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology benefitted from the contributions of other members based outside of europe, especially in the east. the japanese meteorologist takematsu okada was a member of the imo commission for several years and, in one case, he attended a meeting of the commission in person. the dutch meteorologist cornelis braak, the commission’s last president before world war ii, had worked in the dutch east indies before taking up a position at the royal meteorological observatory in de bilt. unfortunately, neither okada nor braak were as keen correspondents as carton. their contributions to the imo commission cannot be reconstructed in detail from the proceedings that today are the only resource available to understand how the organisation built its networks of knowledge exchange.68 nor there are specific studies on agricultural meteorology in the east that can be accessed by an international audience and can be connected to the information available on the imo commission. one can only hope that more case studies on the development of meteorology and climatology and their practical applications outside of europe and the united states will increase in coming years, inspired by the same agenda that has motivated this special issue. hand-in-hand with the increased interest in writing global histories, the historiography of meteorology, and of the atmospheric sciences more generally, can significantly grow and develop. acknowledgments research for this paper was sponsored by the deutsche forschungsgemeinschaft (project no. 321660352). i thank the library of the world meteorological organization and the swedish meteorological and hydrographic office for making available copies of the proceedings of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology. a preliminary draft of this article was presented at the conference of the european society for the history of science (london, september 2018). i thank the conference participants for the helpful suggestions received there. 68 the world meteorological organisation does not have any archival holdings related to the work of the imo commission for agricultural meteorology. occasionally, correspondence related to the commission emerges among the private papers of its members (e.g. the r. a. fisher papers held in the archives of rothamsted research, ref. stats 6.3), but this correspondence is fragmentary and does not allow us to systematically reconstruct the imo commission’s work. microsoft word 11christie.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 11. data collection and the ozone hole: too much of a good thing?1 maureen christie department of history & philosophy of science university of melbourne, australia the problem it was 1985. an article had just appeared in nature announcing a large seasonal disappearance of ozone from the atmosphere over the antarctic2. the community of atmospheric scientists was in disarray. why? what was going on? science in the late twentieth century appears to be a large-scale, orderly, and conservative enterprise. major surprises were rare, but they did occur from time to time. why was this announcement such a surprise? everyone was focussed on the ozone layer and possible human influences. there had been both scientific and public debate for a decade. 1. scientists had been strenuously searching for ozone depletion. their best current data indicated a possible depletion of 2-3 % — barely detectible. but this article claimed local depletions of up to 60%. 2. why did the data come from a single british ground observing station? nasa had a satellite in orbit, continuously monitoring ozone levels world-wide. the data collection and the ozone hole 100 british team leader was a good scientist, with a reputation for careful, conservative, and scholarly work. but he was not widely known as a leading atmospheric scientist. those atmospheric scientists who knew farman knew he would not lightly publish such an article; many did not know him. 3. a major new research effort had been put into investigations of stratospheric circulation and chemistry. better understandings of chemical mechanism and atmospheric circulation, along with improvements in computer technology had been incorporated into the modelling. none of the models had indicated anything unusual happening in the antarctic. stratospheric reaction systems are largely light-driven. everyone was expecting daytime in the upper tropical stratosphere as the likely place for active chemistry. polar air in the lower stratosphere is second only to night-time for absence of ultraviolet light! it was regarded largely as a chemically inert reservoir. 4. the article shows an anomaly only in the antarctic, only in the spring months, and only in years since 1977. a depletion that is both local and seasonal, and started quite suddenly in 1976 or 1977 was a surprise. 5. in the context of great scientific interest in stratospheric ozone, why did it take eight years for the announcement to be published? four years of data collection — up to1980 — would have been enough to confirm that there was a persistent trend rather than just an anomalous season or two. the same four years could have been used for instrument calibration and re-checking, to rule out artefactual explanations. why did the article not appear in 1981? these issues, then, provide the focus of this article. several important questions arise: ♦ why did the publication take so long when everyone was looking so hard? ♦ why had the announcement not come from the nasa satellite team, which was better resourced, and had been engaged in more intensive data collection? ♦ why was the announcement made on the basis of data from a single ground station? there were over 200 such stations around the world, 17 of them in the antarctic. i will address these questions in reverse order. other ground stations a large network of ground stations for worldwide ozone monitoring was set up for the international geophysical year 1957-1958. but the initial enthusiasm waned. funding for personnel and instrument maintenance and calibration fell away in many cases. some stations were reporting ozone readings on an intermittent and irregular basis. some had stopped and restarted at various stages. some gave up altogether. when ozone depletion became an issue in the early 1970s, new stations joined the network, and some dormant programmes were resurrected. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 101 most of the monitoring stations classified as antarctic are located near or outside the antarctic circle. they did not fall within the area affected by the phenomenon, or at least did not consistently do so. from one of these stations, the japanese syowa station, there is a conference report from 1984 of anomalously low ozone in the 1983 austral spring season3. it was presented at the time as a singular rather than an ongoing phenomenon. there are few remaining stations. the french station at dumont d'urville was then in a dormant phase, at least as far as reporting ozone readings is concerned. soviet operations at mirnyy had been hampered from the start with appalling weather conditions, and they were in the process of relocating most of their antarctic operations to a more amenable location at molodezhnaya. observations from mirnyy were both sparse and questionably erratic. the ozone monitoring instrument at the american base at the south pole had its own particular problem at the crucial time. that left only the british station at halley bay to make the crucial observations. the satellite observations the satellite programme collected about 140,000 readings per day, covering the whole surface of the earth. computing technology was primitive by today’s standards. the readings were analysed for quality control purposes, and archived on magnetic tape for distribution to scientists interested in working with the data. local averaging and graphical presentation were not then within the scope of the software. the ozone maps that we are now familiar with were still some years away. there is a nice myth with an appropriate moral, which has been widely circulated to explain the failure of the satellite team to discover the antarctic ozone hole. one of several published sources puts it in these terms: interestingly, it was discovered that us measuring satellites had not previously signaled the critical trend because their computers had been programmed automatically to reject ozone losses of this magnitude as anomalies far beyond the error range of existing predictive models.4 the moral, of course, is to beware of automatic routines, and to be very careful about what you do with outliers. this story is at best a gross over-simplification, and more probably just plain wrong! within a year after the publication of the british antarctic survey paper, an article by the nasa scientists appeared in nature5. it confirms the british data, and clarifies that the phenomenon covers most of the antarctic continent, and not just the halley bay area. no hint of an excuse or explanation is given for the late appearance of their article. but it is clear that computer programs had not ‘rejected’ anomalously low ozone readings, else they could not have been resurrected for analysis in this article. at the very least, the satellite data had been properly archived! an account provided by one of the nasa scientists is published elsewhere6. anomalouly low ozone levels were not rejected, but flagged. early in 1984, the quality data collection and the ozone hole 102 control team at nasa had been aware of a cluster of low ozone occurrences in antarctic readings from september-october 1983. but they thought they were looking at an instrument problem, because their data did not match the normal levels being reported from the american south pole ground station at the same time. they had only just become convinced that the anomaly was real and not instrumental when the british paper appeared. so why were ground readings from the south pole being reported as normal when ozone levels clearly were not normal? for a period of several months in 1983, the wavelengths of the south pole spectrometer were set to the wrong values. the result was an apparently steady ozone level of around 300 dobson units. the south pole data for the relevant period were later declared ‘erroneous and uncorrectable’. i do not know, and do not think i am likely to find out why this happened. but there is a second, and deeper unanswered question. it concerns the years from 1977 to 1982. it is all very well for nasa to investigate when low ozone is continually flagged in 1983. but what about the previous six years? during those austral spring seasons, the majority of ozone measurements in the antarctic were seldom low enough to trigger the low ozone flag. but the ozone levels observed were noticeably lower than the ‘normal’ minimum for that time and place. there is plenty of room for noticeable anomaly between the 180 unit trigger and the 280 unit lower limit of the usual range of scatter (see fig. 1). proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 103 figure 1: halley bay observations compared with satellite "low ozone" flag level. again, i do not know the answer. i think it is very mundane. i think nobody noticed because nobody was looking. all of the scientists involved had other priorities and preoccupations. the dataset was too large, and in a format too user unfriendly for a casual overview. it was inaccessible for any analysis that did not take a preconceived point of view. when you knew what to look for, it was not hard to find. but it was not possible to “notice” anything unusual. i will return to this in the concluding section. data collection and the ozone hole 104 the british antarctic survey analysis the bas had maintained the discipline of regular and careful data collection. but the ozone monitoring project had come to be seen as a routine exercise of low-priority. a lag had developed in entering the data onto the computers at cambridge, and transforming spectrometer readings into actual ozone levels. about five to seven years’ worth of raw data was waiting to be entered and analysed in 1981, including the crucial years when the ozone hole first appeared. the junior authors discovered the anomalous springtime data very quickly when they started to work on this backlog. farman was not immediately convinced. he was aware of a very unstable and somewhat unpredictable circulation pattern that prevailed in the antarctic spring, associated with the break-up of the winter polar vortex. he felt that ozone levels might be quite erratic at that time of year. interestingly, he had previously argued in other publications that autumn levels of antarctic ozone were the best guide to global ozone depletion because they were particularly stable, and less affected by other factors7 than any other location. farman was a cautious and conservative scientist. he asked for three main things before he would be prepared to publish: ♦ results from at least one more spring season to confirm the trend. ♦ recalibration and changeover of spectrometers at halley bay, to rule out instrumental artefacts ♦ a good explanation for why the nasa team had not seen unusual ozone levels. in the event, spectrometers were swapped, comprehensively ruling out instrumental misbehaviour. attempts to communicate with the nasa scientists failed. and data from three more seasons not only confirmed the anomaly, but showed it continuing to intensify. the publication went ahead, both later and stronger than it might have been. conclusion i still think the antarctic ozone hole could potentially have been announced in 1981 rather than 1985. the bas team could have saved two years if the data backlog had not developed, and up to another two if the team leader had been a bit less cautious. his caution in the circumstances cannot be seen as inappropriate though, particularly given the failure of the nasa monitoring. nasa’s problems arose from the sheer size and inaccessibility of their data set. scientists generally, and meteorologists most particularly, usually think that the more data you collect the better. but very large data sets cannot be comprehended by the human mind. our unique pattern recognition facility cannot be brought to bear. any attempt to summarize to make things clearer involves making assumptions about the nature of the data. even local averaging and smoothing, for example, presupposes no significant short wavelength structure. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 105 there is a second, and closely related problem that also often affects meteorologists. the danger of overlooking important structural features in large data sets is exacerbated when the data is seen as routine, and when allowance is not made for the possibility of surprises. not only was the nasa dataset too large and inaccessible for a general overview. it is also clear that no-one at nasa was briefed nor saw it as part of their role to try to take such an overview. endnotes 1 this article draws heavily on material published in maureen christie, the ozone layer: a philosophy of science perspective, cambridge, u.k., cambridge university press, 2001. chapter 6. 2 j.c. farman, gardiner, b.g., & shanklin, j.d., "large losses of total ozone reveal seasonal clox/nox interaction" nature, 315 (1985), 207-210. 3 s. chubachi, "preliminary result of ozone observation at syowa station from february 1982 to january 1983", memoirs of the national institute for polar research special issue, 34 (1984), 13-19. 4 richard e. benedick, ozone diplomacy, cambridge, mass., harvard university press, 1991, p. 19. 5 richard s. stolarski, kruger, a.j., schoeberl, m.r., mcpeters, r.b., newman, p.a., & alpert, j.c., "nimbus-7 satellite measurements of the springtime antarctic ozone decrease", nature 322 (1986), 808-811. 6 f. pukelsheim, "robustness of statistical gossip and the antarctic ozone hole", institute of mathematical statistics bulletin 19 (1990), 540-542. 7 especially the quasi-biennial oscillation. see, e.g. j.c. farman, "ozone measurements at british antarctic survey stations", philosophical transactions of the royal society of london, b279 (1977), 261-271. corresponding author beth cullen, university of westminster, b.cullen@westminster.ac.uk constructing the monsoon: colonial meteorological cartography, 1844– 1944 beth cullen & christina leigh geros introduction during the nineteenth century, the significance of the south asian monsoon for the expanding the british empire made it one of the most anticipated, tracked, and studied weather phenomena in the world.1 innovations in mapping techniques and scientific instruments, as well as advancements in communication technology, converged with the establishment of colonial rule in south asia, bringing the monsoon into focus.2 this paper explores developments in meteorological cartography that highlight constructions of the monsoon during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. the early nineteenth century saw a shift in meteorological inquiry towards standardisation, quantification, and synchronisation, which led to the rise of new representational techniques, namely statistical cartography.3 weather maps were one of the most remarkable innovations of nineteenth-century meteorology, their emergence an attempt to better understand the invisible forces of the atmosphere.4 the use of statistical data to create meteorological images made it possible to identify global atmospheric patterns for the first time. through these new strategies of visualisation, weather patterns were given shape and form, graphically and geographically, thereby enabling weather phenomena to become the object of scientific inquiry.5 nineteenth-century statistical cartographies, based on systematic data collection, were a significant advance in scientific knowledge production and played an important role in discovering new meteorological objects of inquiry. the art of 1 sunil amrith, “risk and the south asian monsoon,” climatic change 151, no. 17 (2016): 17-28; mike davis, late victorian holocausts: el nino famines and the making of the third world (london and new york: verso, 2002). 2 fiona williamson and clive wilkinson, “asian extremes: experience and exchange in the development of meteorological knowledge c. 1840–1930,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 159–78; martin mahoney and georgina endfield, “climate and colonialism,” wires climate change 9, no. e510 (2018): 1–16. 3 vladimir jankovic, reading the skies: a cultural history of english weather, 1650–1820 (manchester: manchester university press, 2000). 4 katherine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago and london: university of chicago press, 2005). 5 birgit schneider, “climate model simulation visualization from a visual studies perspective,” wires climate change 3, no. 2 (2017): 185–93. mailto:b.cullen@westminster.ac.uk history of meteorology 9 (2020) 2 making pictorial statements in a precise and repeatable form was critical to the advancement of monsoon science and greatly informed colonial constructions of the monsoon. the monsoon is a complex weather phenomenon that, over time, has become synonymous with south asia and notions of “tropicality”.6 from the seventeenth century onwards, monsoons became a defining aspect of “the tropics” and a way of emphasising differences between the climates of south asia and europe.7 the region’s “unusual weather” and hazardous monsoonal conditions presented obstacles to civil administration and served as a constant reminder to the british of their tenuous position as interlopers.8 due to its profound influence on trade, agriculture, communication, and social life across the british empire, the monsoon presented a meteorological challenge to be mastered.9 science offered a potential means for understanding and domesticating monsoonal climates and, as such, meteorology was increasingly recognised as being of fundamental importance to imperial interests.10 new scientific techniques, enabled by colonial bureaucratic networks, technologies of measurement, and statistical data sets, advanced understandings of the monsoon by making certain aspects of its spatial and temporal dimensions visible. nevertheless, these cartographic depictions were not neutral; rather, they were an admixture of political, social, and scientific ambitions.11 despite their seeming objectivity, monsoonal cartographies emerged from, reflected, and were mobilised in pursuit of colonial agendas. this paper draws on ideas from post-representational cartography to denaturalise monsoonal maps in order to understand them as social constructions. post-representational theories of cartography question the notion that maps convey scientific, accurate, and objective representations of reality; instead, they consider them as an agentive set of spatial practices that do work in the world.12 maps embed and reflect, as well as create and maintain, social relations and interests, with practical and material implications for the territories and things they depict. as denis wood and john fels point out, maps create, transform, and construct the ideological; they do not mirror nature but produce nature.13 in other words, maps are ideological constructions that produce the world through the ontologies they advance. from this perspective, cartographic visualisations of the monsoon were not unmediated representations; rather, they mapped the monsoon as colonials perceived and sought to utilise, leverage, and 6 david arnold, “india’s place in the tropical world, 1770–1930,” the journal of imperial and commonwealth history 26, no. 1 (1998): 1–21; felix driver and brenda s.a. yeoh, “constructing the tropics: introduction,” singapore journal of tropical geography 21, no. 1 (2000): 1–5. 7 arnold, “india’s place in the tropical world,” 2. 8 gunnel cederlöf, rule against nature: founding an empire on india’s north-eastern frontiers (nmml occasional paper, history and society new series 20) (new delhi: nehru memorial museum and library, 2013), 5; robert markley, “‘a putridness in the air’: monsoons and mortality in seventeenth-century bombay,” journal for early modern cultural studies 10, no. 2 (2010): 105–25. 9 davis, late victorian holocausts, 213 238. 10 fiona williamson, “weathering empire: meteorological research in the early british straits settlements,” british society for the history of science 48, no. 3 (2015): 475–92. 11 georgina endfield and sam randalls, “climate, empire, and environment,” in eco-cultural networks and the british empire: new views on environmental history, eds. james beattie, edward melillo, and emily o’gorman (london, uk: bloomsbury, 2014), 21–43. 12 pablo iván azócar fernández and manfred ferdinand buchroithner, “post-representational cartography,” in paradigms in cartography: an epistemological review of the 20th and 21st centuries, eds. pablo iván azócar fernández and manfred ferdinand buchroithner (berlin: springer, 2014), 87–99. 13 denis wood and john fels, the nature of maps: cartographic constructions of the natural world (chicago: university of chicago press, 2008), 190; john pickles, a history of spaces: cartographic reason, mapping, and the geo-coded world (london: routledge, 2004). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 3 control it. this is not to deny the material reality of monsoon winds and rains, but to acknowledge that “the monsoon” is also, in part, a social construction, produced through human ideas, terminology, modes of measurement, and representation. although the concept of the monsoon refers to material dynamics that exist independently of human imagination and cognition, there are different ways of conceiving of this materiality and, therefore, differing conceptions of the monsoon, dependent on the vantage point of the observer. as meteorological cartographies are practices of apprehending, understanding, and engaging with climatic environments, they provide a way of tracing monsoonal understandings. this paper analyses meteorological representations of monsoons from 1844 to 1944, which corresponds with the rise of statistical meteorological cartography. the paper is divided into three sections, structured around the representational formats of maritime charts, synoptic charts, and upper-air charts, which broadly reflect dominant socio-political agendas. from 1844 to 1875, increased availability and standardisation of measured data, along with technological advances in global communication and mobile meteorological instruments, produced maritime charts which solidified and extended previous constructions of the monsoon as periodic and predictable. this section focuses on the work of matthew fontaine maury, whose cartographic constructions added depth and dimension to earlier representations, turning them into “powerful imaginative devices” that improved maritime routes of transportation, trade, and exploitation.14 a move towards synoptic charts in 1875 coincided with the establishment of the indian meteorological department (imd), which initiated the expansion of land-based observatories, formalised entanglements between science and colonialism, and provided an organisational structure for systematic investigations of the monsoon. this section focuses on the work of henry blanford, the imd’s first director, and john eliot, his successor. blanford put observational structures in place to systematise data collection, which resulted in graphical representations of the monsoon as a forecastable, closed system. following blanford, eliot published a climatological atlas of india, which positioned the monsoon within a well-defined geographical region, constructing a notion of the “climatological solidarity of the british empire around the indian ocean”.15 from 1904 to the end of british operation of the imd in 1944, it was realised that atmospheric phenomena could not be considered in geographic isolation, and regionally-defined scientific constructions of the monsoon began to expand their territory of inquiry, including a shift into the upperatmosphere.16 the resulting upper-air charts produced by the imd, under the direction of gilbert walker, james hermann field, and charles normand, revealed global teleconnections, moving monsoonal explorations into a planetary frame. in part, these endeavours were linked to ambitions to revitalize the british empire through aviation.17 in analysing these successive meteorological cartographies and their modes of production, we attempt to track how western understandings of the monsoon have been constructed over time—understandings that were inextricably linked with processes of colonisation. 14 jason w. smith, “matthew fontaine maury: pathfinder,” international journal of maritime history 28, no. 2 (2016): 419. 15 h.r.m., “review: climatological atlas of india by john eliot,” the geographical journal 29, no. 3 (1907): 337. 16 gisela kutzbach, “concepts of monsoon physics in historical perspective: the indian monsoon (seventeenth to early twentieth century),” in monsoons, eds. jay s. fein and pamela l. stephens (new york: john wiley & sons, 1987), 201. 17 gordon pirie, air empire: british imperial civil aviation, 1919-39 (manchester: manchester university press, 2009). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 4 winds that influence currents: maritime charts from 1844–1875 the monsoon first became known to european mariners as a seasonal reversal of winds, associated with the indian ocean region. these atmospheric movements fundamentally shaped patterns of trade and exploration, with voyages timed and routes planned in accordance with prevailing winds. whilst the word “monsoon” first appeared in english usage in the late sixteenth century, the first western visualisation of monsoon winds was produced by edmond halley in 1687 (fig. 1).18 halley’s first voyage at sea was facilitated by the east india company (eic), placing his work in a lineage of mapped knowledge for imperial purposes. halley’s account of the trade winds, and monsoons was based on his own experiences of living in the “tropicks” and conversations with navigators “acquainted with all parts of india”.19 arguing that the “variation [of winds] is better expressed in the mapp [sic] . . . than it can well be in words”, his chart outlined the general principles of the winds of the indian ocean.20 halley understood monsoons to be periodic and predictable, caused by the march of the sun: “half the year they blow one way, and the other half near upon the opposite points”.21 such ideas became firmly established in maritime imaginaries and were transmitted through the following centuries. subsequent nautical guides continued to draw heavily on halley’s understanding of the predictable monsoon. in their description of typical monthly weather in relation to sailing passages, these guides exaggerated and reinforced a sense of monsoonal regularity, giving an impression of a “clock-work climate”.22 james capper’s observations on the winds and monsoons, written in 1801, describes monsoons as shifting winds which “change alternately every six months, according to the sun in the eliptic [sic]”.23 according to capper, monsoons were a discovery of the “enlightened ages” of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries when mariners “by help of the compass could venture to extend their voyages beyond sight of land”, their “discovery” being intimately associated with oceanic voyages.24 monsoons were therefore, first and foremost, associated with oceans and seasonal shipping routes, which shaped initial understandings and depictions. 18 sunil amrith, unruly waters: how mountains rivers and monsoons have shaped south asia’s history (london: penguin books, 2018): 22. 19 edmond halley, “an historical account of the trade winds, and monsoons, observable in the seas between and near the tropicks, with an attempt to assign the physical cause of the said winds,” philosophical transactions of the royal society 16, no. 183 (1687): 153. emphasis in original. 20 ibid., 155. 21 ibid., 158. 22 christian o’brien, “a brief history of the monsoon,” (unpublished manuscript, 2011), typescript, 28. 23 james capper, observations on the winds and monsoons: illustrated with a chart, and accompanied with notes, geographical and meteorological (london: c. whittingham, 1801): xx. 24 ibid., xxi. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 5 fig. 1. map of the trade winds in the atlantic and indian oceans. source: halley, “an historical account,” no page. image courtesy of royal society. whilst largely effective in enabling oceanic travel and trade across the region, these early descriptions of the monsoon did little to provide “adequate instructions for utilizing the winds to the best advantage”.25 although britain had established the largest merchant fleet in the world by the nineteenth century, voyages were still largely confined to established trading routes and passages were highly weather dependent. for britain, ensuring profits from foreign lands was dependent on identifying optimal transportation, which made improvements to navigational techniques of the utmost importance.26 unsurprisingly, oceans and their winds became the object of intense scientific study, reflecting the geopolitical ambitions of maritime nations. as much of the british fleet consisted of sailing ships, “a science of the winds had an obvious national interest”.27 between britain and the us, the scientific study of oceans became a priority in the consolidation of economic and political power.28 drawing upon the us navy’s vast collection of ships’ logs, the american oceanographer matthew fontaine maury developed a cartographic method of using line weights, line types, and colour that gave depth to geospatial charts and helped “enable the navigator” to “blaze his way” across the ocean, “upon the wings of the wind”.29 whilst mariners were knowledgeable about specific regional conditions, maury’s charts were the first comprehensive compilation of wind observations on a global scale. consequently, maury became known as the “pathfinder of the seas” and produced well-defined navigation routes based on dominant wind patterns, enabling considerably shorter sailing times.30 25 norman j.w. thrower, “edmond halley as a thematic geo-cartographer,” annals of the association of american geographers 59, no. 4 (1969): 659. 26 vladimir jankovic, “climates as commodities: jean pierre purry and the modelling of the best climate on earth,” studies in history and the philosophy of modern physics 41, no. 201 (2010): 207. 27 anderson, predicting the weather, 3. 28 michael s. reidy and helen m. rozwadowski, “the spaces in between: science, ocean and empire,” isis 105, no. 2 (2014): 340. 29 matthew fontaine maury, the physical geography of the sea (london: sampson low, son & co., 1855), 262. 30 charles lee lewis, matthew fontaine maury: the pathfinder of the seas (annapolis: the united states naval institute, 1927). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 6 addressing gaps in the data collection of previous generations, maury saw mariners as his “corps of observers” and “co-labourers in science”.31 by 1844 he had created and distributed a systematised logbook for the collection and submission of weather observations. aided by the invention of more stable and mobile instruments, like the aneroid barometer, these observations included wind and current direction and velocity, ocean temperature, latitude and longitude, and air pressure. each navigator was to enter in his abstract-log every day in the year the temperature of air and water, the direction of the wind, and set of the currents, the height of the barometer, &c. he was also to cast overboard at stated periods bottles tightly corked, containing, on a slip of paper, his latitude and longitude and the day of the month and year. he was to pick up all such bottles found floating, note latitude and longitude of place found, and day of months and year in the abstract-log and forward all to the observatory.32 the millions of observations that these logs produced provided maury with the material to construct his wind and current charts. in gratitude for their contributions, maury provided his observers with a free copy of the latest edition of his charts. in doing so, he gave his coproducers the means to guide themselves “across the pathless ocean” with charts made not by “theory or conjecture, not the faint glimmering of any one man’s experience, but the entire blaze and full flood of light which the observations of all the navigators that had preceded him could shed”.33 capitalising on the revenue-boosting advantages that ocean and wind currents could provide when seen as a vast and reliable machine, maury chose to construct his wind and current charts of the indian ocean in two moments, february and august, representative of the main monsoon seasons. in maury’s own words, “monsoons, properly speaking, are winds which blow one half of the year from one direction and the other half from an opposite, or nearly opposite direction”.34 he further elaborates on their timing, writing “monsoons of the indian ocean prevail really for about five months each way, viz., from may to september from the southwest . . . and from november to march inclusive from the northeast”.35 explaining his intention to represent only the “prevailing direction” of these winds, maury’s charts continued to construct the monsoon as regular and predictable.36 in accordance with these ideas, his charts “abstracted and generalized atmospheric patterns”, whilst establishing credibility through increased data collection and enriched forms of representation.37 although these processes of simplification created powerful devices, as the written text that appears alongside his chart (fig. 2) states, “the winds of this ocean undergo such great, so many, and such regular changes 31 matthew fontaine maury cited in smith, “matthew fontaine maury,” 416. 32 diana fontaine maury corbin, a life of matthew fontaine maury, author of the physical geography of the sea and its meteorology (london: sampson low, marston, searle & rivington, 1888): 57–58. 33 maury, the physical geography of the sea, vii. 34 ibid., 217. 35 ibid., 224. 36 ibid. 37 d. graham burnett, “matthew fontaine maury’s ‘sea of fire’: hydrography, biogeography, and providence in the tropics,” in tropical visions in an age of empire, eds. felix driver and luciana martins (london and chicago: university of chicago press, 2005), 125. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 7 according to the seasons, that it has been found very difficult to map them”, hinting at a more complex reality.38 nevertheless, in charts such as fig. 2, the seas emerged in quadrants of quantification, or measured units of space in which data could be plotted or read. such charts allowed mariners to access layers of historical information on wind speed and direction for different seasons of the year at a glance. like halley, maury placed great confidence in the value of cartography to express “what volumes of written directions could but imperfectly describe”.39 he took great care to make sure each subsequent production of the wind and current chart helped the mariner to visualise the winds, currents, ocean temperatures and meteorology “that he could rarely discern with his own eye”.40 showing the typical wind patterns for the month of february during the northwest monsoon on the left, and the typical wind patterns for the month of august during the southeast monsoon on the right, fig. 2 simplifies the complicated arrow arrangement of halley’s 1686 construction of the same phenomena. like halley, maury uses short strokes to illustrate wind direction as it registers against the movement of a ship; however, differentiated arrows or strokes express variegated wind types. seen in fig. 3, these distinctions add depth, dimension, and credibility through the graphic construction of detail. fig. 2. monsoon & trade wind chart of the indian ocean. source: maury et al. monsoon & trade wind chart of the indian ocean, series b. image courtesy of library of congress. the image shows wind data in relation to the navigation of ships. 38 matthew fontaine maury, john julien guthrie, r.l. may, united states bureau of ordnance and hydrography, united states hydrographic office, and the united states naval observatory, monsoon & trade wind chart of the indian ocean (washington, dc: united states hydrographical office, 1859). retrieved from the library of congress, <https://loc.gov/item/2009575919>, on 31 january 2018. 39 matthew fontaine maury, “blank charts on board public cruisers,” southern literary messenger 9, no. 8 (1843): 459. 40 smith, “matthew fontaine maury,” 417. https://loc.gov/item/2009575919 history of meteorology 9 (2020) 8 fig. 3. monsoon & trade wind chart of the indian ocean. source: maury et al., monsoon & trade wind chart of the indian ocean, series b. image courtesy of library of congress. the image shows the detailed strokes and symbols used to express wind variations. navigators came to trust the solidity of these cartographic practices, to the extent that some mariners would stick to maury’s routes even when they encountered contrary winds and currents. “maury’s paths were powerful imaginative devices . . . so as to convince mariners that winds and currents were always predictable and systematic when, in fact, they were not”, demonstrating the capability of such visualisations to “transform mariners’ ideas about the sea . . . its order, its laws and its design”.41 in 1858, maury published another version titled winds and routes (fig. 4) that explicitly depicted ship routes through wind regions by not conflating the two into simplified line types. winds are represented as patterns filling the ocean, with routes of transporting or obstructing winds layered onto these regions almost as an infrastructure. the process of communicating existing knowledge and experience through the cartographic image activated powerful “neural assemblages” that created new knowledge and pathways.42 the inclusion of data points in the construction of these maps, demonstrated by the explicit appearance of charted tracks of prior routes, denaturalises constructions of meteorological and oceanic systems, whilst making the social construction of cartographic knowledge explicit.43 the result was a visualised set of mapping practices, institutionalised across time and space, that lent a sense of security and validity to the object of the map and the winds depicted.44 41 ibid., 419. 42 rob kitchin, chris perkins, and martin dodge, “thinking about maps,” in rethinking maps: new frontiers in cartographic theory, eds. rob kitchin, chris perkins, and martin dodge (london and new york: routledge, 2009), 14. 43 pickles, a history of spaces, 66. 44 rob kitchin and martin dodge, “rethinking maps,” progress in human geography 31, no. 3 (2007): 331–44. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 9 fig. 4. winds and routes. source: matthew fontaine maury, the physical geography of the sea (london: sampson low, son & co, 1855), plate viii. image courtesy of british library. the image shows the direction and force of wind, registered against the movement of ships. maury’s expansion of data collection networks and improvements to standardised data collation, together with the first transatlantic telegram and the widespread distribution of meteorological instruments, provided a solid foundation for an expanded and systematic approach to marine meteorology. the 1853 brussels convention—convened at maury’s instigation—led to the founding of the international meteorological organisation (imo).45 one of its first acts was to create “an international standard meteorological logbook for ships at sea”.46 the president of the british association of science recommended that this system be extended to the indian ocean on speculation that reducing the length of ocean voyages would result in substantial annual savings. george buist, president of the geographical society of bombay, was meant to coordinate the project, but was unable to do so due to his obligations to the east india company. nevertheless, he later sent maury six “skeletal charts” containing observations from over a hundred ships, which perhaps contributed to maury’s 1859 monsoon & trade wind chart of the indian ocean.47 45 stephen j. dick, sky and ocean joined: the us naval observatory 1830–2000 (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2003). 46 paul n. edwards, a vast machine: computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming (cambridge, ma: the mit press, 2012), 24. 47 kutzbach, “concepts of monsoon physics,” 166. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 10 as well as visualising the monsoon, such weather charts “followed the paths of british ships and traced a geography . . . that conformed to the contours of britain’s imperial interests”.48 following the imo’s formation, the board of trade’s meteorological department was established in london in 1854. under the leadership of captain robert fitzroy, this newly established department “tasked with providing information on marine meteorology” became a centre for industrial and governmental command.49 as britain’s empirical reach grew, so did concerns over how order could be brought to unruly climatological phenomena that continued to evade representation and challenge imperial control.50 in response, the meteorological department sought to address these concerns at an increasingly global scale. winds that bring rains: synoptic charts from 1875–1904 western explorations of the monsoon, initially pertaining to the oceans, gradually extended to land with the expansion of the british empire. the east india company undertook substantial meteorological monitoring and observation programmes, primarily aimed at maximising revenue generation and resource extraction from a rain-fed terrain, driven by knowledge that “an appreciation of monsoon patterns would reduce the impact of periodic revenue-depleting droughts”.51 observatories were established in madras (1792), calcutta (1825), lucknow (1832), trivandrum (1837), and poona (1842), often as private undertakings.52 however, early monitoring was piecemeal, limited by faulty instruments and a lack of standardisation. following the indian rebellion of 1857, the east india company was transferred to the crown. territorial acquisition and the need for sustained governance saw british involvement in india transition from mercantile enterprise to bureaucratic administration.53 concerns about india’s improvement and natural disaster mitigation, including droughts brought on by monsoon failure, became increasingly important in the justification of imperial governance, as reflected by an intensification of meteorological observation.54 as land-based observatories and agendas became more established, visual depictions of the monsoon shifted towards synoptic forecasting techniques and focused on understanding the monsoon in relation to rainfall. maritime understandings of monsoons as seasonally reversing winds become significantly more complex when extended to explorations of precipitation over land. endeavours to predict monsoon rainfall resulted in a more systematic approach to meteorology and an expanded understanding of monsoonal dynamics. 48 simon naylor, “log books and the law of storms: maritime meteorology and the british admiralty in the nineteenth century,” isis 106, no. 4 (2015): 782. 49 simon naylor, “nationalizing provincial weather: meteorology in nineteenth-century cornwall,” british journal for the history of science 39, no. 3 (2006): 414. 50 siobhan carroll, an empire of air and water: uncolonizable space in the british imagination, 1750–1850 (philadelphia: university of pennsylvania press, 2015). 51 george adamson, “the discovery of enso,” in el nino in world history, eds. richard grove and george adamson (london: palgrave macmillan, 2018), 109. 52 s.m. razaullah ansari, “on indian observatories in the nineteenth century,” proceedings of the indian history congress 36 (1975): 523. 53 kapil raj, “from merchants to imperial bureaucrats? territorial administration and the east india company, seventeenth–nineteenth centuries,” in serve the power(s), serve the state: america and eurasia, eds. juan carlos garavaglia, michael j. braddick, and christian lamouroux (newcastle upon tyne: cambridge scholars publishing, 2016), 244–74. 54 adamson, “the discovery of enso,” 110. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 11 with the establishment of the indian meteorological department (imd) in 1875, india’s first centralised system for meteorological observations was put into place, providing “the organisational structure for systematic investigations of the monsoon and the first attempts at seasonal forecasts”.55 the appointment of henry blanford as imperial meteorological reporter to the government of india (goi), followed by john eliot from 1886 to 1904, set the agenda for the imd’s first thirty years. less than a year into the job, blanford’s first report to the goi “practically laid the foundation of the pursuit of scientific meteorology in india”, establishing key steps for the centralisation of indian meteorology.56 blanford, already resident in calcutta, requested a central observatory that would enable “the systematic study of the climate and india as a whole” and the “adoption of uniform methods of observation” to “secure a basis of accurate data”.57 his initial proposal included a call to expand the number of observatories, ensure their distribution across the provinces, and establish additional observatories in burma, rajputana, central india, and the bombay presidency. these were to be networked with those of “neighbouring countries and europe” to gain a better sense of the state of weather across the subcontinent.58 approved in full by the goi, the quick expansion of land-based observatories allowed this newly established arm of the imperial government to take significant strides in defining the monsoon as scientific object. immediately following the imd’s formation, severe drought and subsequent famine occurred in 1876 and 1877, setting a clear priority for monsoon forecasting. even with the assistance of an expanded network of observatories and standardised instruments—in particular, the thermometer, rain gauge, anemometer, and barometer—blanford commented, “we are in the position of a commander on a vast battle-field who can find no eminence from which he may gain a bird’s eye view of the combat”.59 determined to find causes and patterns that would enable the forecasting of future deficits and excesses, blanford limited his scope of inquiry to the distribution of air pressure and winds that carried rains across the landmass of the indian subcontinent. reflective of this detailed and mathematical study of the atmosphere, meteorological cartography shifted towards synoptic charts. these charts, which summarised atmospheric conditions over a wide area by displaying information on temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind speed, and direction, became the basis for action for the first thirty years of the imd’s investigative practice. blanford’s approach appears to have been influenced by balfour stewart, director of kew observatory in england, who championed splitting meteorology into two branches of inquiry: climatic and physical. in an influential article in nature, he wrote, “we are so mixed up with the earth and its atmosphere, and the motions of the latter are on so large a scale, that we find the greatest possible difficulty in grasping their true import”.60 calling for “a bird’s eye view of the atmosphere”, stewart described the need to distance the measurer from that 55 kutzbach, “concepts of monsoon physics,” 205. 56 d.r. sikka, “the role of the india meteorological department, 1875–1947,” in history of science, philosophy and culture in indian civilization, volume xv, part 4, science and modern india: an institutional history, c.1784–1947, ed. debi prasad chattopadhyaya (new delhi: pearson longman, 1999), 388. 57 john eliot, climatological atlas of india, published by the authority of the government of india under the direction of sir john eliot; issued by the indian meteorological department (edinburgh: j. bartholomew & co., 1906), xi. 58 sikka, “the role of the india meteorological department,” 388. 59 henry f. blanford, the indian meteorologist’s vade-mecum (calcutta: office of the superintendent of government printing, 1877), 99. 60 balfour stewart, “physical meteorology i: its present condition”, nature 1, (1869): 102. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 12 being measured in order to gain a “general plan of the whole”.61 blanford recognised the capacity of the synoptic chart to construct this view, enabling observers to advance their “knowledge of the laws that regulate the internal movements of the atmosphere”.62 referring to stewart, he outlined the potential for these techniques to put sections of the atmosphere “under a meteorological blockade”, believing that “a few years would suffice to place our knowledge of meteorological laws on a very advanced footing”.63 as central concerns of the british empire, the indian subcontinent and its weather were placed at the forefront of meteorological inquiry. tropical settings were understood as natural laboratories, where natural laws could be traced.64 the notion that “atmospheric change” in the tropics could be “reduced to its essentials”, presenting “meteorologists with fewer fluctuations to unravel”, underwrote early synoptic constructions of the monsoon and related cartographic experiments.65 in the early years of his tenure at the imd, blanford wrote, “order and regularity are as prominent characteristics of our [india’s] atmospheric phenomena as are caprice and uncertainty to those of their european counterparts”.66 as such, monsoonal dynamics continued to contribute to constructions of a tropical region defined by regularity. these notions informed the conceptual invention of distinctions between the temperate and the tropical, “one of the most enduring themes in the history of global imagining”.67 conceptions of a simplified atmosphere greatly informed the imd’s early work as it began to impose western scientific ideas on india’s weather and climate, an effort to reconcile imperial governance with a monsoonal climate.68 in a practical guide to the climates and weather of india, ceylon and burmah, blanford describes the process of making synoptic charts, “to render the facts of pressure distribution evident at a glance”, describing the resulting lines as representing “differences of pressure in the same way that the contour lines of a map show differences of elevation and the slope of the ground, enabling one to gather notions of the form of its surface”.69 the enumerated monsoon emerged through a process of culling and averaging data, and the general trajectory of the monsoon was revealed through “the course and position of the isobars”.70 for the first time, synoptic weather maps made it “possible to ‘watch’ storms and other phenomena develop and move” through dramatic god’s-eye views.71 whilst blanford and the imd were not the first to use this method of representation, synoptic charts provided a new perspective for meteorological investigations of the monsoon, as previous charts presented “only idealised models”.72 through synoptic depictions, the monsoon emerged as an identifiable, trackable entity, profoundly transforming representations of, and relations with, atmosphere and 61 ibid. 62 blanford, the indian meteorologist’s vade-mecum, 99. 63 ibid. 64 anderson, predicting the weather, 250. 65 ibid., 261. 66 blanford, the indian meteorologist’s vade-mecum, 48. 67 felix driver and luciana martins, eds., tropical visions in an age of empire (chicago: university of chicago press, 2005), 3. 68 mahoney and endfield, “climate and colonialism,” 5. 69 blanford, a practical guide to the climates and weather of india, 24. 70 ibid., 27. 71 paul n. edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism,” osiris 21, no. 1 (2006): 231. 72 martin mahoney, “the ‘genie of the storm’: cyclonic reasoning and the spaces of weather observation in the southern indian ocean, 1851–1925,” british journal for the history of science 51, no. 4 (2018): 618. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 13 weather.73 such charts (fig. 5) gave a general picture of the atmospheric pressure that structured seasonal monsoon cycles; however, in their “use of means, without standard deviations” such constructions concealed variation and variability, and so continued to distort monsoonal dynamics.74 fig. 5. average barometric and wind chart for january (left) and july (right). source: blanford, a practical guide to the weather and climates of india, 25–26. image courtesy of british library. in fig. 5, the weight, or thickness, of the isobaric contour line is the dominant feature within the frame, drawing the atmosphere into conversation with land—a departure from previous constructions of ocean and wind currents as correlational and defined by the seas. the limited field of data collection, then excluding the indian ocean, restricts the map to the indian subcontinent and the immediate coasts of the british empire surrounding the bay of bengal. two types of lines express largeand small-scale barometric changes that occur over the subcontinent, demonstrating a distinctive pattern of exchange between “january and july, when the two monsoons [summer and winter] are respectively at their height”.75 winds are shown by strokes of variable length that “exhibit the average wind directions” and “the relative steadiness of the wind is indicated by the lengths of the arrows”, while the air surface is defined by continuous, solid lines marking isobaric contours of atmospheric pressure.76 in january (fig. 5, left) the “seat of the highest pressure is in the north-western corner of india” and as it “decreases steadily southwards” to ceylon and sumatra, the isobar in the lower right-hand corner is shown as “incomplete”.77 in july (fig. 5, right) the northwestern seat of high pressure 73 fabian locher, “atmosphere of globalisation: depressions, the astronomer and the telegraph,” revue d’histoire moderne et contemporaine 56, no. 4 (2009): 77–103. 74 chris o’brien, “imported understandings: calendars, weather, and climate in tropical australia, 1870s–1940s,” in climate, science and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, eds. james beattie, emily o’gorman, and matthew henry (new york: palgrave macmillan, 2014), 206. 75 blanford, a practical guide to the climates and weather of india, 37. 76 ibid. 77 ibid., 27. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 14 is replaced by low pressure centres with high pressures occupying the equatorial seas. in all instances, the isobaric lines meet an abrupt end at the indian state’s northern and eastern boundaries. as blanford and the imd’s first synoptic construction of the monsoon, these charts reflect political realities and climatic imaginations. the northern indian border is treated as a hard stop and the southern edge of the map is questioned with several “strokes” of wind extending beyond the frame. john eliot succeeded blanford in 1886 and published the climatological atlas of india in 1906. drawing upon data collected between 1875 and 1900, the goi ordered the preparation of the atlas to illustrate “all the important features of the climatology of that tropical area as determined from the results of the observations”.78 according to the goi, observations from this period, as “imperial and directed from a central office”, had “reached such a level of uniformity and accuracy as could warrant the detailed treatment necessary to turn them to account in establishing the climatology of india”.79 constructed through careful review of blanford’s data, the atlas is a manifestation of blanford’s enumerated monsoon, only hinting at eliot’s own ideas of a far more complex monsoon system inclusive of vertical and horizontal dynamical structures reaching well outside of india and the bay of bengal. reminiscent of blanford’s earlier work, eliot’s atlas includes two double-page charts of the indian ocean (figs. 6 & 7) illustrating “two seasons of nearly equal period, one being characterized by the prevalence of dry land winds (fig. 6), and the other (fig. 7) by the prevalence of sea winds of great volume and intensity”.80 these seasons, otherwise known as the north-east monsoon and the south-west monsoon, continued to be considered india’s two defining climatic conditions. in 1893, eliot organised an expedition “to collect all available ship-weather data from the indian ocean”.81 this initiative was perhaps prompted by blanford’s view that meteorological knowledge of india would remain incomplete until “some system of taking observation over the middle and northern portion of the india ocean has been devised and brought into operation”.,82 blanford hypothesized that the “distribution of pressure over the land and sea areas” was the primary driving force behind rainfall “irregularities” over land.83 following this lead, eliot’s collation of ship data helped to contextualise the wind strokes and incomplete isobars from fig. 5 within the larger framework of data in figs. 6 & 7. eliot’s research provided a “dynamical explanation of the structure of monsoon depressions” as a set of interconnected forces defined by the horizontal convergence and uplift of air currents over extended periods of time.84 reflecting this knowledge in figs. 6 & 7, the use of colour within the isobaric contours implies a weighted surface of air oscillating between different locations over the course of the year. the distinction between highs, depicted in orange to yellow tones, and lows, depicted in green to blue tones, expresses conditions of hot and dry to cool and wet, showing “the chief conditions” of “the monsoon alterations of climate and weather in india”.85 these binary representations of two opposing climatic conditions were constructions not only 78 eliot, climatological atlas of india, preface. 79 h.r.m., “review: climatological atlas of india,” 336. 80 john eliot, “on the origin of cold weather storms of the year 1893 in india,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 22, no. 97 (1896): 1. 81 sikka, “the role of the india meteorological department,” 395. 82 blanford cited in ibid., 388-89. 83 ibid. 84 ibid., 395. 85 eliot, climatological atlas of india, xxiv. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 15 of the monsoon, but of the british empire surrounding the indian ocean and bay of bengal. in depicting a cohesive, bounded atmospheric territory the charts were an attempt to naturalise colonial state space whilst creating a soothing picture of the chaotic weather events that presented such obstacles to colonial control.86 fig. 6. southern asia and indian ocean showing isobars and winds for january. source: eliot, climatological atlas of india, plate 7–8. image courtesy of british library. reflective of prevailing climatic understandings and their relation to empire, the climatological atlas of india is not, however, representative of the imd’s efforts at forecasting. whilst such cartographic representations were useful for informing short-term prediction, they were less informative for long-range prediction. for both blanford and eliot, the project of long-range monsoon forecasting was a matter of great importance, due to the urgent need to foresee drought and flood events that could harm india’s economy. the distinctly different frames, presented by blanford’s 1889 study of isobaric changes over india and the bay of bengal and eliot’s inclusion of the indian ocean in the 1906 atlas, convey eliot’s instinct to look towards the sea for the origins of monsoon winds. from 1893 attention turned to understanding the monsoon’s origins and driving forces through the routine generation of daily charts using observations extracted from logs of ocean-going ships, an activity that continued until 1904.87 86 manu goswami, producing india: from colonial economy to national space (chicago: university of chicago press, 2004). 87 indian meteorological department, administration report of the india meteorological department for the year 1924–25 and a history of the department during the half century 1875–1924 (simla: government of india press, 1925), 10. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 16 fig. 7. southern asia and indian ocean showing isobars and winds for july. source: eliot, climatological atlas of india, plate 9–10. image courtesy of british library. known as the indian monsoon area charts, these visualisations outlined the prevailing characteristics of the indian monsoon region.88 comparing two such synoptic charts—fig. 8, 2 may 1893, and fig. 9, 21 june 1893—covering the subcontinent including both the bay of bengal and indian ocean, eliot addresses the development of the southwest monsoon relative to its expected onset. for eliot, these charts “throw a considerable amount of light” on air movements and oceanic currents as the monsoon advances and retreats.89 whilst failing to garner consensus among meteorologists as to the causes of such meteorological movements, these studies worked towards defining measurable indicators of monsoon onset.90 eliot deduced that shifts in isobaric distribution were not produced by thermal conditions; rather, they indicated “the transition from the hot weather to the rainy season”, or the “burst of the monsoon”.91 according to eliot, erroneous meteorological descriptions of its arrival served only to produce confusion, as well as suggesting false origins for the monsoon, with implications for an informed understanding of india’s wet season. as a “subject of the greatest 88 eliot, “on the origin of cold weather storms,” 1. 89 ibid., 7. 90 ibid. 91 ibid., 7. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 17 importance from an economic standpoint”, eliot focused on understanding the arrival, departure, source, and logic of the moisture-laden winds that fed this corner of the empire.92 fig. 8. chart of the indian monsoon area, 2 may 1893 (left) and 21 june 1893 (right). source: eliot, “on the origin of cold weather storms,” 24. image courtesy of john wiley and sons. blanford and eliot’s production and analysis of daily weather observations constructed a more nuanced understanding of the monsoon’s development than earlier maritime representations, particularly its behaviour over the course of its season and the weather patterns that accompanied its departure. daily weather reports graphically charted the course of weather throughout the year, drawing a better understanding of connections between local and regional patterns in monsoonal development. the production of daily weather charts was instrumental to eliot’s notion that the “two seasons” that divide india’s year and climate “may be subdivided into two subordinate seasons or periods”.93 however, for purposes of short-term forecasting, daily weather charts often proved insufficient. following “unsatisfactory seasons and the partial failure of crops in 1892 and 1893 in the madras presidency”, both authorities and the public requested improved daily reports.94 in 1904 it was decided that the recorded area should be extended to “include the far southern pressure region where monsoon winds might originate”.95 despite expanded data collection, and introduction of weekly and monthly means rather than daily observations, efforts to predict monsoon behaviour continued to prove inadequate and the work was relinquished. winds that bring winds: upper-air charts from 1904 to 1944 in 1904, gilbert walker—physicist and mathematician—was appointed to lead the imd following three drought-incurred famines in 1896, 1899, and 1902. leading to reduced revenue and a depleted indian population, these events brought meteorological concerns to the fore. in the first year of walker’s service, the monsoon had failed again with a repeated failure 92 ibid., 36. 93 eliot, climatological atlas of india, xxxi. 94 indian meteorological department, administration report, 8. 95 ibid., 10. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 18 in 1905, producing what appeared to be a statistical anomaly.96 within a decade, five years of monsoon failure had eluded all attempts at long-range prediction. a preoccupation with synoptic charts had restricted the spatial and temporal scope of geographic and seasonal inquiries. towards the end of the nineteenth century meteorologists began to accept that “atmospheric phenomena could not be considered in isolation”.97 walker was certain that the subcontinental dimensions of the monsoon must have some relation to other features of the global land-ocean-atmosphere system; putting his mathematical training to use he adopted a more quantitative approach to tackling the problem of long-range forecasting.98 with the global reach of the british empire and the early work of the imo, walker had access to meteorological records from across the globe; under his direction, the imd pioneered statistical forecasting.99 although cartographic methods had allowed previous generations of meteorologists to use graphics as a way of drawing-out and establishing hypotheses regarding interrelating factors of meteorological concern, walker moved away from geographic limitations and maps, instead examining the monsoon as a pan-oceanic, planetary system through carefully plotted tables, charts, and line graphs of numerical data.100 walker’s quantitative approach to monsoon science differed from previous attempts. while eliot’s methods for monsoon forecasting had grown more complex by considering possible extra-indian factors, blanford and eliot’s work still depended very much on intuition when it came to interpreting tables and charts.101 in contrast, walker’s approach was “resolutely empirical”. 102 reliant on numerical methods such as correlation-coefficients and multiple-regression equations, he attempted to eliminate “the personal factor” from the seasonal forecasting formula.103 with the vast global resources available to him, walker’s range of inquiry expanded geographically and considered atmospheric relationships between the indian monsoon and inter-seasonal weather in distant parts of the globe. his hypotheses were informed by previous findings including: blandford’s discovery of an isobaric opposition between siberia and the indo-malay region in 1800; and hoffmeyer’s discovery of associative isobaric relationships between north atlantic and european weather systems in 1878.104 through the lens of the monsoon, walker’s studies of the atmosphere established foundational “knowledge of the connections between weather in distant parts of the earth”.105 skeptical of graphic representation and the intuitive biases that it might induce, walker focused instead on collecting and analysing quantitative information that revealed relationships which could inform forecasting. this “made the study of conditions over a very wide area unavoidable” and demanded calculations based on “seasonal, not annual, value” to account for time-based variability.106 walker agreed with eliot’s division of four separate seasons in india and further asserted that “there was no hope of unravelling the tangled threads of causes and effects” unless 96 sikka, “the role of the india meteorological department,” 399–400. 97 kutzbach, “concepts of monsoon physics,” 201. 98 sikka, “the role of the india meteorological department, 400. 99 amrith, unruly waters, 138-139. 100 ibid., 139. 101 baini prashad, ed., the progress of science in india during the past twenty-five years (calcutta: indian science congress association, 1939), 732. 102 amrith, unruly waters, 138. 103 prashad, the progress of science, 733. 104 gilbert walker, “world weather,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 54, no. 226 (1928): 79. 105 ibid. 106 ibid. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 19 relationships between one or two factors could be proven to have occurred “one or two seasons before those of the other”, providing some statistical significance.107 this meant that walker’s equations worked across seasons to determine the causes of seasonal rotation, rather than between adjacent periods. the sheer quantity of data at walker’s disposal gave multiple dimensions to “empirical methods”; yet, he writes that graphic representations “are open to some objection”, particularly when “the disturbing factors are numerous or the connection sought is slight”, as the graphs may be interpreted differently by each observer.108 walker did recognize that the “purely graphic” methods used in the discovery of the isobaric “see-saw” between argentina and india or australia had “produced the first map showing the distribution of the world-wide surge”.109 however, referencing a similar study by bigelow that had included a more complex set of values, walker continued to point to graphic failings stating that the work had been “lessened by excessive and rather arbitrary smoothing” of data.110 subsequently, when assessing scientific methods applied to studies of the indian monsoon and forecasting models, he stressed the importance of “not mere visual impressions from plotted curves”, but statistically-proven relationships.111 with the empire’s social and economic health dependent on monsoon rainfall and facing the same challenge as his predecessors, walker chartered a new territory for monsoon forecasting based on “twenty-eight factors” which he used to “systematically examine” interrelations between the indian monsoon and global circulation patterns.112 for walker, thirty years of weather data and comparative numerical analysis revealed clues about global meteorological affairs through tables and line graphs rather than cartographic depictions. through his examinations of global weather data, walker continued to tweak calculation methods for monsoon rainfall forecasts. by 1908, he had made significant changes to the imd’s mathematical formulas using correlation analysis and multiple regression equations.113 from this work, walker determined that his forecasting model required the “calculated departure” to be “relatively large” for reliable rainfall prediction.114 significantly, walker’s expanded field of study and methods of calculation (fig. 10) shed light on a “seesaw” relationship between two atmospheric “centres of action”, one in the indian ocean and the other in the southeast pacific ocean.115 known as the “walker circulation”, this discovery was an important milestone towards understanding dynamic atmosphere-ocean couplings and is still thought to account for rainfall variations across the tropics.116 while walker’s observations helped to put monsoon failures and consequent droughts into wider perspective, 107 ibid., 79–80. 108 gilbert walker, “correlation in seasonal variation of climate,” in memoirs of the indian meteorological department, vol. xx, part 6 (simla: government central branch press, 1909), 117. 109 walker, “world weather,” 79. 110 ibid. 111 ibid. italics not original. 112 d.a. mooley and b. parthasarathy, “indian summer monsoon and the east equatorial pacific sea surface temperature,” atmosphere-ocean 22, no. 1 (1984): 24. 113 richard w. katz, “sir gilbert walker and a connection between el nino and statistics,” statistical science 17, no. 1 (2002): 97–112. 114 kutzbach, “concepts of monsoon physics,” 203. 115 katz, “sir gilbert walker,” 97. 116 mooley and parthasarathy, “indian summer monsoon,” 24. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 20 his work offered “more promise for prediction of events in other regions” than for india.117 through studying the monsoon, walker constructed “a productive starting point for a theory of global teleconnections”.118 like his predecessors, walker’s long-range forecasting models were unsuccessful; however, he remained confident that physical relationships with “commercial value” were not a “mathematical figment”. 119 if blanford and eliot had attempted to define the origins of the indian monsoon through regional borders, walker, who believed that “knowledge of the connections between weather in distant parts of the earth” had to be won step by step, had worked to define them by limitless inquiry.120 fig. 9. line graph showing the calculated prediction for monsoon rainfall, from june to september, versus actual rainfall measurements taken from 1880 to 1920. source: walker, world weather, 86. image courtesy of john wiley & sons. walker’s focus on atmospheric dynamics precipitated a shift towards the vertical expansion of meteorological exploration. although both blanford and eliot contributed to expanding observation stations across india, especially at higher altitudes, india’s membership in the international meteorological commission (imc) after 1891 secured further expansion.121 by 1900–1901, india’s network of surface observatories had grown to 230 stations.122 in 1912, with support from the royal society of london, walker persuaded the english secretary of state to fund an upper air observatory in agra “to systematically undertake upper-air experiments for a period of ten years”.123 under walker’s direction, james hermann field designed and led the agra observatory. previously based in simla, field had made early upper-air observations using balloons and kites across india “with the object of investigating upper-air conditions during the south-west monsoon”.124 field charted the position of his kites in daily weather reports (fig. 10), locating them in relation to air pressure, wind, and rainfall 117 charles normand, “monsoon seasonal forecasting,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 79, no. 342 (1953): 469. 118 kutzbach, “concepts of monsoon physics,” 205. 119 gilbert walker, “seasonal weather and its prediction,” nature 132 (1933): 807. 120 walker, “world weather,” 79. 121 edwards, a vast machine, 53. 122 sikka, “the role of the india meteorological department,” 396. 123 ibid., 397. 124 g.c. simpson, “obituary: james hermann field, c.s.i.,” the meteorological magazine 72, no. 857 (1937): 119. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 21 data. located in india’s northern plains, “near the boundary of the two main monsoon currents”, agra was ideally positioned as a launch pad for investigating the upper air dynamics of the monsoon—charting a future path for the imd.125 fig. 10. pressure in millimetres (mm.) and winds at 8:00 on 14 july 1907 with rainfall in the mm. of ensuing 24 hours (left). pressure in mm. and winds at 8:00 on 17 july 1907 with rainfall in the mm. of ensuing 24 hours (right). source: james hermann field, kite flights in india and over the neighbouring sea areas during 1907, memoirs of the indian meteorological department, vol. xx, part 7 (simla: government central branch press, 1908), 141. image courtesy of british library. field succeeded walker as director of the imd in 1924. whilst in agra, he had pioneered investigations of the “free atmosphere”, and importantly his early analysis of upperair temperature over india uncovered discrepancies between air temperatures at different altitudes within the stratosphere. 126, his discoveries included a “fall in temperature over india . . . marked by strong temperature inversion”, which differed from europe and the usa.127 these were significant findings for long-range forecasting models and indicated a new exploratory plan for monsoon science. by the end of the nineteenth century, meteorologists had gained a basic knowledge of global atmospheric flows, but establishing a scientific basis for seasonal prediction would require “observations at different altitudes”.128 this indicated a 125 india meteorological department, report on the administration of the meteorological department of the government of india in 1938–39 (new delhi: government of india press, 1939), 2. 126 james hermann field, “the meteorology of india,” journal of the royal society of arts 82, no. 4256 (1934): 787. 127 sikka, “the role of the india meteorological department,” 397. 128 normand, “monsoon seasonal forecasting,” 468. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 22 shift in perspective with an emphasis on vertical analysis as a way of seeing, ordering, and understanding atmospheric circulations.129 this shift ushered in a new era of exploratory mapping. the number of observatories producing upper-air data significantly increased, enabling “an understanding of the whole body of air up to the greatest accessible heights”.130 by 1928, in addition to daily weather charts, trajectories of kite and balloon missions were granted graphic representation (fig. 11); their flight patterns indicated wind force and direction at different altitudes and began to draw a more complex image of the atmosphere. these visualisations improved aviation safety and advanced understandings of meteorological dangers within india’s air space; these included “sudden dust storms which may blot out invisibility, rainfall that loses all control of itself, drifting cloud so low that a landing ground may be lost, and now and again a tornado”.131 much like earlier nineteenth-century cartographies of shipping routes, these maps progressed knowledge about atmospheric phenomena that could be utilised for new, more efficient transportation routes. whereas colonial activities on land and sea had relied on surface knowledge of winds and rain, aviation required knowledge of the upper-airs to extend the imperial reach vertically. reflecting preoccupations with aviation, upper-atmospheric meteorological explorations constructed the atmosphere as a traversable space.132 as james hermann field wrote, “a great revolution in weather requirements has had to be met in india as the flying services have developed eastwards”, describing advances between 1924 and 1934 as “little short of magical”.133 by 1934, the imd’s daily meteorological maps included “a complete and connected bird’s eye view of the winds sheets over india at seven levels” and improved the accuracy of daily forecasts.134 through these efforts, meteorologists achieved the vantage point blanford had envisioned in 1877, enabling them to depict atmospheric territories and geophysical dynamics. meteorological measurements taken from agra’s upper-air exploratory surveys revealed that the height of the tropopause—the atmospheric limit of the troposphere— is higher over the tropics and shifts with the summer monsoon (fig. 12).135 building on these findings, recent meteorological studies exploring “folds” in the tropopause surface have shown relationality with “monsoon intensity”.136 such studies continue to indicate the monsoon’s importance for knowledge construction. 129 michael s. reidy, “the most recent orogeny: verticality and why mountains matter,” historical studies in the natural sciences 47 (2017): 578–87. 130 field, “the meteorology of india,” 787. 131 ibid., 790. 132 roger turner, “weathering heights: the emergence of aeronautical meteorology as an infrastructural science” (phd diss., university of pennsylvania, 2010). 133 field, “the meteorology of india,” 788. 134 ibid. 135 ibid., 798. 136 yutian wu, gang chen, lindsey taylor, and pengfei zhang, “on the linkage between the asian summer monsoon and tropopause folds,” journal of geophysical research: atmospheres 123, no 4 (2018): 2037–49. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 23 fig. 11. height-time curves of eight special pilot balloon ascents at agra on 30 march 1928. source: field, the meteorology of india, 795. image courtesy of royal society of arts (rsa) london. fig. 12. temperatures (absolute) in the upper air and stratosphere, from equator to north pole: summer and winter half-years. source: field, the meteorology of india, 798. image courtesy of royal society of arts (rsa) london. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 24 between 1928 and 1944, charles normand served as the imd’s last british director. still under pressure to develop better seasonal forecasting models, he introduced the “performance test”, furthering walker’s commitments to quantitative monsoon science.137 whereas walker had relied on regression equations for eliminating personal bias from forecasting, normand’s test provided a new method for determining significant and insignificant factors.138 although his meteorological predecessors had long understood the monsoon to be “pulsatory in character and not characterized by steady conditions”, normand continued to advance understandings of its dynamic behaviour.139 in the weather of india, normand describes monsoon conditions over the subcontinent and the location of the monsoon trough as “not stationary” but moving north and south affecting “rainfall distribution as it moves”, indicating ongoing concerns with variations in monsoon rainfall over india.140 significantly, the world wars brought meteorologists from around the world into discussion about atmospheric dynamics. norway’s bergen school developed models to examine “frontal surfaces and instabilities” in the “mid-latitude extra-tropical cyclones” which were found to be controlled by “atmospheric waves in the upper air”.141 bjerknes’s model for frontal analysis provided a “powerful method” to aid in forecasting “weather that is caused by interaction between different types of air masses”.142 as a result, concepts based on air-mass interactions became so important in india between the 1930s and 1950s that investigations focused heavily on examining the interplay between them and “the formation of the monsoon”.143 conjunctly, normand’s studies of the monsoon’s atmospheric dynamics led him to insist that the monsoon is “an active, not a passive feature in world weather”, whose behaviour advanced understandings of world-wide weather.144 from the late nineteenth century onwards, meteorologists had worked to uncover the “vertical structure of the monsoon” and “the three-dimensional nature of atmospheric processes”.145 building on these developments, the winds of the upper atmosphere, or the “winds that bring winds”, a piece of the monsoon puzzle that had been inaccessible to earlier surface investigations, finally found cartographic expression in the meteorological atlas of the international indian ocean expedition in 1972 (fig. 13). combining maury’s oceanic winds, blanford and eliot’s regional winds, and walker, field, and normand’s atmospheric winds, the 1972 meteorological atlas constructs a monsoon of all three. 137 s.r. savur, "application of the performance test to seasonal forecasting of rainfall in india," sankhyā: the indian journal of statistics 2, no. 1 (1935): 2. 138 prashad, the progress of science, 733; savur, “application of the performance test to seasonal forecasting”, 2. 139 e.v. chelham, “synoptic aspects of the monsoon circulation and rainfall over indo-pakistan,” geology and geophysics 4, no. 3 (1953): 264. 140 ibid., citing normand. 141 sikka, “the role of the india meteorological department,” 407. 142 prashad, the progress of science, 734. 143 sikka, “the role of the india meteorological department,” 408. 144 charles normand, “monsoon seasonal forecasting,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 79, no. 342 (1953): 468. 145 kutzbach, “concepts of monsoon physics,” 184. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 25 fig. 13. upper air chart showing mean wind flow for july at 850 millibars (mb). source: international indian ocean expedition, meteorological atlas of the international indian ocean expedition (washington, dc: us government publishing office, 1972), chart 62. image courtesy of british library. conclusion from 1844 to 1944, various meteorological constructions saw the monsoon transition from a predictable and seasonally reversing wind at sea, to an unpredictable travelling rain cloud over land, to a tele-connected planetary phenomenon extending into the upper reaches of the atmosphere. as part of ongoing, nonlinear progressions of monsoonal understandings, these perspectives were intimately tied to processes of imperial expansion: each phase of cartographic construction reflected advancing colonial agendas, from oceanic trade and exploration, to land-based revenue extraction and exploitation, to aerial transportation and atmospheric globalisation. tracing the histories of monsoonal cartography reveals the intimate relations between colonial rule and meteorological science and their contributions to modern understandings of weather and climate. as an entanglement of material realities and human concerns, the monsoon has always been as much an ideological construction as a material history of meteorology 9 (2020) 26 entity; a meteorological assemblage that has variously catalysed, sustained and thwarted human ambitions.146 nineteenth-century understandings of the monsoon were predominantly formed through measurement and quantification, largely directed by british attempts to master india’s weather and climate. towards the end of the period, the graphic techniques that initially brought shape and form to the monsoon were superseded by mathematical equations which sought to eliminate personal bias and human intuition. in part, such quantitative explorations were an attempt to escape the subjectivity of the observer. through such endeavours, the monsoon became an abstraction, purified and naturalised through science.147 in the minds of imperial meteorologists, such techniques of order and measurement would reveal the “laws” of natural entities, establishing knowledge that could be utilised in the productive control of nature, the pursuit of governance, and the improvement of colonial territories. despite these ambitions and the huge leaps in understanding brought about by constellations of technologies, instruments, data, and representational techniques, the monsoon continued to defy definition and prediction. the various historic constructions of the monsoon that emerge, converge, and diverge throughout the period considered here describe the monsoon’s different aspects in their manifest complexity. like the indian proverb of blind men touching different parts of an elephant and giving different accounts of its form, each cartographic construction depicts a different part of the monsoon system. as a result, the monsoon remains elusive, moving in and out of focus as successive generations seek to understand, predict, leverage, and control it. whilst contemporary meteorology now identifies the monsoon as a “fully coupled ocean-landatmospheric system”, it is widely acknowledged that many of its mechanisms, including the coupled feedbacks, are “yet to be fully explored”.148 as a result, there is still no common consensus about the monsoon and its dynamics, and no unified scientific definition.149 this ambiguity demonstrates that human encounters with the monsoon are always inherently partial, regardless of the methods of observation and associated modes of representation. acknowledgements this work was conducted as part of monsoon assemblages, a research project supported by the european research council under the european union’s horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 679873). 146 endfield and randalls, “climate and empire.” 147 bruno latour, we have never been modern (new york, london: harvester wheatsheaf, 1993). 148 andrew g. turner and h. annamalai, “climate change and the south asian summer monsoon,” nature climate change, vol. 2, (2012): 587. 149 matthew alexander stiller-reeve, md. abu syed, thomas spengler, jennifer a. spinney, and rumana hossain, “complementing scientific monsoon definitions with social perception in bangladesh,” bulletin of the american meteorological society 96, no 1 (2015): 49–57. microsoft word 02chun20060116.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 25 chugugi, supyo, and punggi: meteorological instruments of the 15 th century in korea youngsin chun* and sang-woon jeon** *meteorological research institute, seoul, the republic of korea **former president of the sungshin women’s university, seoul, the republic of korea introduction and background meteorology in korea in modern sense had its start in the 15 th century when scientific devices were invented for the measurement of rainfall, flood levels, and wind direction. these inventions were part of the effort to control and understand nature’s influence on agricultural production. this fact is described in detail in volume 93 and 96 of the sejong sillok (annals of king sejong; ce 1418~1450). about 300 years later, another record in volume 114 of the yongjo sillok (annals of king yongjo; ce 1724~1776) also supports this invention. the historical sillok were translated into the modern korean language in 1994 and were subsequently digitized. 1 in this study, sillok, which is a veritable record, will be used together with secondary sources in order to explain the invention of the rain gauge in korea and describe its background and purpose. two other meteorological devices invented in korea in the 15 th century, the watermark and wind anemoscope, will also be introduced. the earliest record that snow accumulated in the capital of goguryo was in december, ce 77, when the depth was recorded as three chok. chok is a traditional length unit corresponding to about 20 cm. also recorded are flood level records of three to four chok for ten days in ce 350. 2 the mention of rain measurement appears on may 3, 1423 in the sejong sillok, when the depth of wet soil was measured as 1 chon (fig. 1). chon was the length unit corresponding to about 2 cm today. the next record can be found in 1425 in the sejong sillok (vol. 28): ‘drought. ordered the provinces and counties to measure the depth of moisture penetration on the soil and report’. this measurement was called ‘wootaek’ and had been a simple method to record rainfall in the whole country in korea. meteorological instruments of 15 th century korea 26 fig. 1. wet soil depth recorded in the sejong sillok (vol. 20). the dotted box is translated here. it reads: “it rained tonight, penetrating earth to the depth of approximately one chon (about 2 cm) in ce 1423.” chugugi (rain gauge) and chugudae (stand) according to the sejong sillok, heavy rains and severe droughts alternated around the year 1441. whether or not there was adequate rainfall at the appropriate time determined whether there was to be a bumper crop or a famine. however, the depth depended on the soil type, texture and dryness. it could not be compared with each other. the sejong sillok, under the date of august 18, twenty-third year of the reign of king sejong (ce 1441), mentions the epoch-making event in the history of agricultural meteorology as follows: the minister of taxation informed [the court] that according to reports from the provincial governors on the amount of rainfall, the conventional method of measurement was unable to distinguish between the differences in the depth of rainwater on the ground when it was parched and when it was soaked. therefore, they recommended that the soungwan 3 should be instructed to prepare a pedestal or a base and place thereon a vessel of iron 2 chok in depth and 8 chon in diameter to measure the amount of rainfall. prince munjong designed the instrument in ce 1441 and named the rain gauge as chugugi with 1.5 chok (30 cm) in depth and 7 chon (14 cm) in diameter. the depth of rainfall was measured by a ruler called chuchok. a network of such gauges was soon established at every district office on the korean peninsula. the scientists and officials of soungwan engaged in the work of compiling meteorological information gathered data from outposts in the provinces, counties, and towns of the realm for more than 700 years, until the downfall of the joseon dynasty at the beginning of the 20 th century. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 27 it is well documented that the chugugi was invented in the 15 th century in korea. 4 the japanese historian of science and technology keiji yamada recently wrote, "it must be taken into consideration that there is no chinese record that defines clearly the standardized instrument to measure the rainfall amount. apparently, there was a mathematical problem to calculate the rainfall amount in a round bowl in china. neither artifacts nor records show that the ancient chinese scientists invented such an instrument. the invention of a column shaped instrument with standard uniform size was done by joseon scientists and was their own original idea." 5 there are only three records (ce 1530, ce 1542, and ce 1586) to measure the rainfall in seoul. that is because the rain gauges made during the reign of king sejong were all destroyed or lost during the japanese invasion (1592-1598). all rainfall records previous to 1770 are based on supyo or watermark readings taken in the cheonggyecheon stream following through the middle of seoul (see below). king yongjo (ce 1724-1776) finally determined to set up the network of chugugi throughout the country and accordingly issued an edict to this effect. on may 1, 1770 in the 46th year of his reign, bronze rain gauges were made in accordance with the specifications established during the reign of king sejong. the rain gauge stand was made from a stone block 46 x 37 x 37 cm and had a hole or basin 16 cm in diameter carved to the depth of 4.2 cm (fig. 2). both on the front and rear sides of the stone stand was inscribed the name chugudae, the stand for the chugugi, while to the left on the rear side were inscribed the letters gollyung gyongsin owol cho (manufactured in may, sexagenary year 57 in the reign of the chinglung emperor in china). at that time, the gollyung was a generally used year name in korea. the chugugi and chugudae placed at taegu (southeastern city of korea) were brought to the incheon observatory in 1910 and then kept at the korea meteorological administration (kma) in seoul until now, but the chugugi disappeared during the korean war (ce 1950-1953). fig. 2. the chugugi (replica) and chugudae (original) made in ce 1770, in accordance with the specifications established during the reign of king sejong (ce 1418-1450). meteorological instruments of 15 th century korea 28 in 1782, a rain gauge was installed in the courtyard of the changdeok palace during a severe drought that lasted from june to july. the marble stand on which the chugugi was placed have detailed inscription explaining the significance of the rainmeasuring device. the inscriptions read as follows: 6 in the twenty-fourth year of the reign of king sejong, a rain gauge was made of copper [iron] to the size of 1 chok and 5 chon in height and 7 chon in diameter, one being installed in each province, county, and township to measure the depth of rainwater after each rain. in the forty-sixth year of the reign of the preceding king [yongjo], copies of the old model were cast and installed in the changdeok and gyonghui palaces and in the eight provinces. although the vessels may be small in size, they are heavy in weight and import since they embody the efforts made under the two sacred eras to combat both floods and droughts. in the summer of the sixth year [of king jongjo], a severe drought visited the whole 500 ri [distance unit] of gyounggi province and the paddies were parched and cracked. thereupon, the king blamed his holy self and widely sought advice. having had a cloth screen set upon the altar, his majesty alit from the sedan chair to offer a prayer in person, until his royal attire was wet with evening dews. also, convicts were amnestied, and the people and scholars, and women and children within the capital looked up in grateful wonder, and tearfully spoke in these words: “since his majesty has such great apprehension for the well-being of his subjects, rain is bound to come; even if no rain shall fall, his subjects should feel more grateful than if rain came.” that night, there was a great rain, and the depth reached one chon and two pun. this was entirely due to his majesty’s virtue. his majesty was worried that the rain was not sufficient; so he had a rain gauge installed in the courtyard of the changdeok palace and measurement taken, and it was found sufficient. thereupon, his majesty called upon his courtiers sim yom-jo and chong chi-gom to record his exceeding joy. they are his most loyal subjects. they know that when then there is no rain, the apprehension of his majesty on behalf of his subjects can not measured by the same measure as the apprehension of the subjects, and that when there is rain, his majesty’s joy must far surpass that of his subjects. this rain gauge embodies such apprehension and such joy on the part of his majesty. respectfully, subject sim yom-jo, subject chong chi-gom. soungwan dealt with the astronomy, geography, calendar, fortune, weather, and time announcement. soungwanji, a 328-page treatise by the bureau of astronomy and meteorology published in 1818, records the procedures for measuring and recording meteorological phenomena such as hail, thunder, snow, dustfall and rainfall (fig. 3). history of meteorology 2 (2005) 29 fig. 3. the method of recording the rainfall amount written in soungwanji (1818). the dotted box is translated here. it reads: rainfall is recorded at the time, the date, and the water depth in the chugugi in chon and pun (about 2 mm). the only known surviving chugugi was made in 1837 and bears the inscription: “made in the thirty-fourth sexagenary year of tao-kuang during king hunjong (ce 1834-1849).” it was located in kongju until 1910 when it was taken by the japanese to japan. the japan meteorological agency returned it to korea in 1971 as a result of efforts to restore korean cultural assets, and it is presently kept at the korean meteorological agency (kma) in seoul (fig. 4). meteorological instruments of 15 th century korea 30 fig. 4. the only genuine chugugi in existence, made in 1837 and returned to korea from japan in 1971. this was designated as national treasure no. 561 in korea. dr. i.k. yang, director general of the kma (1968-80), is pictured. the rain data measured in kongju province as well as other areas in the korean peninsula were found in kaksa tungnok (records and documents from governmental offices consisting of 91 volumes during the 19 th century in korea. digitalization of kaksa tungnok was done by korean institute of korean history in 2002 7 . rainfall data as measured by the chugugi in seoul were archived from june 1770 with gaps in the record for april, july, and september 1772 and august 1775. a 227-year record of annual precipitation amounts observed in seoul from 1776 to 2003 is shown in figure 5. precipitation data before 1907 were based on the chugugi records, and after 1907 were measured by the kma using a modern rain gauge. year 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 chugugi modern raingauge fig. 5. the annual precipitation amounts observed in seoul from 1776 to 2004. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 31 at the beginning of the 20 th century, there were five kinds of chugugi made of iron and their eleven stands made of granite or marble 8 . however, at present, five stands and only one rain gauge remain in korea as shown in table 1. table 1. the chugugi and chugudae preserved in korea chugugi chugudae photograph original location location (at present) ce 15 th century missing granite 61x92x58 cm (without inscription) seoul, korea kma, seoul, korea ce 1770 missing granite 46x37x37 cm (inscription on two sides) taegu, korea kma, seoul, korea ce 1782 missing marble 30.3x45.3x45.5cm (inscription on four sides) seoul, korea national palace museum of korea, seoul korea ce 1811 missing granite 44x43.8x43.8 cm (inscription on one side) tongyong, korea seoul science museum, korea ce 1828 missing granite 60.5 x 28.5 cm (without inscription) changdeok palace, seoul, korea changdeok palace, seoul, korea ce 1837 bronze 32x15 cm 6.2 kg (inscription) missing kongju, korea kma, seoul, korea meteorological instruments of 15 th century korea 32 supyo (watermark) and supyo-gyo (bridge) the watermark, supyo, originally a wooden type column (2.5 m high), was invented in 1442 and erected west of the majon bridge on the han river. 10 . later in the era of king songjong (ce 1469-1494), the watermark began to be made of stone, and this is the model that remains today. figure 6 shows an example recorded in 1554 in which the water level of the han river rose by 21 chok and 2 chon by the pobaek scale. the pobaek scale was used for measuring cloth while chuchok was used mainly for determining the length of roads and for calibrating astronomical and meteorological instruments. fig. 6. the water level of the han river was increased up to 21 chok and 2 chon (by the pobaek scale) by flood in 1554. all records previous to 1770 are based on watermark readings, and there appears in the injo sillok (annals of king injo; ce 1623~1649) in 1648 an entry indicating that the report on the watermark reading for the heavy rains of the previous day had not been filed. the entry of may 18, 1743 states: “heavy rain, measurement made by the watermark. it appears also that during the era of king injo, watermarks were set up at two places in seoul, the injo sillok mentioned a ‘central watermark’ and ‘southern watermark’ together with the water mark readings in the han river. the detailed flood level records were investigated during the period from 1400 to 1821 11 . the wooden watermark was improved using the granite type column which has a scale of 1 chok (about 20 cm) to 10 chok (about 2 m), and also has special marks indicating the drought, normal, and flood levels. the six-sided granite type column is 3 m high and is shaped like a fish swimming upstream in order to reduce the stream history of meteorology 2 (2005) 33 friction (fig. 7). it was possible to read the water level on the bridge called supyo-gyo. fig. 7. the supyo-gyo (bridge) and the supyo (watermark) in cheonggyecheon in the early 1900s. when the cheonggyecheon was covered up in a road expansion project, the original granite type watermark and the supyo-gyo were moved to the jangchungdan in seoul, and afterwards the watermark only was removed to the sejong memorial hall in seoul (fig. 8). fig. 8. the supyo-gyo in jangchungdan (left) and the supyo (watermark) preserved at the sejong memorial hall (right) in seoul at present. meteorological instruments of 15 th century korea 34 punggi (anemoscope) and punggidae (stand) a third meteorological instrument, the punggi, or anemoscope, was erected in the era of king sejong to record the direction and approximate speed of the wind. it consisted of a streamer attached to a long pole inserted into a punggidae, or solid stand. the entire assembly was approximately 8 m high. it is not clear when systematic observations of wind direction actually commenced, but the anemoscope aided investigations of the influence of the wind on crops and shipping. two existing bases, eight-sided granite columns (2.25 m) made in 1770, are now preserved in seoul at the gyeongbok palace and the changgeong palace (fig. 9). fig. 9. eight-sided granite punggidae, made in 1770 for wind streamer, preserved in seoul at the gyeongbok palace (left) and the changgeong palace (right). an eighteenth-century painting on display at seoul university museum depicts punggi, punggidae, chugugi, and chugudae in one of the courtyards of the changdeok palace (fig. 10). history of meteorology 2 (2005) 35 fig. 10. pungi, punggidae, chugugi and chugudae in a part of the changdeok palace painted in the 18 th century. conclusion the chugugi (rain gauge) was meteorological instruments used 12 and also invented in the 15 th century in korea. the instruments including supyo (watermark) and punggi (anemoscope) were also devised from the need to understand and measure the meteorological conditions scientifically. although there are some missing data of those observations during the periods of foreign invasion, the remaining records and instruments implied that there was a systematic network for the rain in the korean peninsula during the 15 th century. although there are gaps in the observational record during periods of foreign invasion, the surviving data and instruments imply that standardized instruments and a systematic network for rain measurements existed in the korean peninsula during the 15 th century. acknowledgements the authors are grateful to prof. james r. fleming, prof. togo tsukahara, dr. gaston r. demaree and prof. joachim pelkowski for their encouragement and suggestions. this paper was presented at the ichm conference organized by drs. cornelia lüdecke, hans volkert, and stefan emeis at polling monastery, germany in 2004. this study was performed for the project, “development on the asian dust (hwangsa) monitoring and prediction techniques,” funded by the korea meteorological administration. meteorological instruments of 15 th century korea 36 endnotes 1 the annals of joseon dynasty are the annual records of the joseon dynasty (ce 1392-1910), and were written from 1413 (year 13 of the reign of taejong) to 1865 (year 2 of the reign of gojong). the annals comprise 1,893 volumes. the annals of joseon dynasty are the most important primary source for studying the history of joseon, with very high credibility-each king was even forbidden to read the record of his own reign, for the purpose of maintaining its independence. joseon established four separate repositories to store copies of the annals: chunchugwan (in seoul), chungju county, jeonju county and seongju county. all three except the repository in jeonju were burned down in the japanese invasion (ce 1592-1598). joseon printed five more copies after that war and stored them in chunchugwan and the mountains myohang-san, taebak-san, odae-san, and mari-san. the chunchugwan copy was lost in 1624, due to the treason of yi gwal. part of the mari-san copy was lost during the manchu invasion 1638, and the surviving volumes moved to jeongjok-san in 1633. the copies of the annals were preserved to the end of joseon dynasty. in japanese colonial period (ce 1910-1945), the japanese moved the odae-san copy to tokyo university, but the copy was soon lost in the great kanto earthquake of 1923. the annals written in classical chinese were translated into modern korean language and were digitized. 2 the samguk-sagi (history of the three kingdoms; bce 57-ce 918). 3 the soungwan was the bureau of astronomy and meteorology. 4 yuji wada, scientific memoirs of the korean meteorological observatory 1 (chemulpo, korea, 1910): 26-31 (in japanese and french); sang-woon jeon, “on the scientific measuring methods of the rainfall depth in the yi-dynasty of korea,” j. hist. sci., japan, 66 (1963): 49-58 (in japanese); sang-woon jeon, science and technology in korea (cambridge, mass.: mit press, 1974), 112-19; sung-sam kim, “comments on the chinese claim for the invention of rain gauges,” korea j. (july 1990): 22-32. 5 keiji yamada, kankoku kagakusa (tokyo: nippon hyoron sha co., ltd, 2005), 483-4 (in japanese). 6 sang-woon jeon, a history of science in korea (seoul, korea: jimoondang publishing company, 1998), 149. 7 sang-won kim, “the findings of gongju chugugi data in joseon dynasty,” bull. korea meteorol. admin. (nov. 2004): 28-29 (in korean). 8 wada yuji, joseon ancient observation records survey and report, (incheon: joseonchongdokbu, 1917), 52-64 (in japanese). 9 central meteorological office, 1961: monthly precipitation records (1770-1960). 1-15; hyun-sook jung, g.h. lim, and j.h. oh, “interpretation of the transient variations in the time series of precipitation amounts in seoul, korea,” journal of climate 14 (2001): 2989-3004. 10 wada, joseon ancient observation records, 26-27. 11 ibid., 51-64. 12 john f. griffiths, “a chronology of items of meteorological interest,” bull. amer. meteorol. soc. 58 (1977): 1059. microsoft word 05kraker.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 51 reconstruction of storm frequency in the north sea area of the preindustrial period, 1400-1625 and the connection with reconstructed time series of temperatures dr. adriaan m.j. de kraker institute for geoand bioarchaeology, vrije universiteit, amsterdam, the netherlands e-mail: krakeram@zeelandnet.nl introduction this paper shows how the reconstructed time series of storm frequency of the polder area west of antwerp is extended back in time as early as 1400. it also shows how this time series1 is verified by giving it a wider reach, including the entire belgian and zeeland flanders coast. this area is of specific interest for the study of storminess, because it is very vulnerable to northern and western storms and gales, and apart from that tides rise higher in this southern part of the north sea, especially in the estuary of the westerschelde. knowledge of storm frequency throughout the period 1400-1625 is of interest in order to understand the forcing of the north atlantic oscillation which very strongly affects weather patterns in western and central europe. at the same time a reconstruction of storm frequency over a longer period enables us to have an insight in weather extremes then and how this weather pattern compares to our present climate. although there is a connection between the variability of storminess and rainfall in specific areas, no reconstructed time series of rainfall of that period are available yet. only several time series of temperature reconstruction enable us to find connections with our reconstructed time series of storm frequency. in order to have high quality data that is representative for both a long period and a wider area, mainly written sources have been studied that deal with the impact of stormy weather. first these specific sources will be discussed within their historical context, then the kinds of proxy data they yield will be dealt with and after that the method that was initially developed will be explained. finally, the main results will be highlighted and recommendations for future research will be made. data and their historical background for the period 1400-1625 no instrumental weather data exists. in the netherlands2 instrumental measuring started in the early 18 th century and in belgium later.3 this leaves us reconstruction of storm frequency 52 with only written sources that give either direct or indirect information about weather events, a kind of information that is called proxy data.4 using proxy data from written sources to reconstruct climates of the past only makes sense if they meet three quality demands. time series of proxy data need to be long, continuous and uniform.5 in order to have knowledge of long term climate variability and to have a useful comparison with the present day climate, time series of at least half a century are needed. the kinds of series of written sources that are studied here start about 1400 and continue far into the 17 th century. secondly, the proxy data they provide is continuous for most of that period. because several parallel time series of storm data have been studied, quality control of our data has been carried out and small gaps could be filled in order to have complete weather information of storms and high tides for the entire period. thirdly, written sources need to give the same weather signal throughout the period in the same way. this implies for instance that storm events need to be observed and registered in the same way and at the same location. sometimes time series give high quality climate signals, but after some decades a change in the way events and expenses were administered may render the written source useless for further climate research. in such cases this gap in the quality could be solved by using substitute written sources. the written sources used have been carefully selected from a region in the south eastern north sea. the area consists of the 65 km long belgian coastal strip and the zeeland-flanders polders as far as antwerp. this area is located at 51º 05´ 51º 25´ n and at 3º 00´ 4º 15´ e and it is a flat landscape which makes it very vulnerable to storms and gales. north westerlies blow perpendicular to the coast and tides rise higher during these events. moreover in the westerschelde estuary tides are funnelled and during storms and gales this results in dangerously higher water levels in easterly direction. this makes the south eastern part of the north sea a perfect location to reconstruct the impact of high tides and storms in the present and during the past (figs. 1 and 2.) fig. 1. southern part of the north sea and the belgian coastal area. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 53 fig. 2. study area and its coastal towns with biervliet and zeeland flanders in the westerschelde estuary. (from google earth). the kinds of sources that give information about storms and high tides of the past are the annual accounts of coastal towns and series of accounts of dyke and dune maintenance. town accounts give special information about the maintenance of quays and wharfs and all kinds of public buildings that are vulnerable to storm events. the accounts contain information about storm and high tide events that have had a damaging impact which ranges from an indirect mentioning of damage to a precise storm date, the amount of damage it caused and its geographical reach. consequently the same vicious storms and gales are not only mentioned in each time series of town accounts, they also occur in the dyke accounts. table 1. time series of town accounts, 1400-1625. high quality town accounts in bold and marked with * partly studied. name characteristics climate biervliet seaport town (fisheries and salt) storms blankenberge* village on dune coast (fisheries) storms bruges international market town storms damme small commercial town storms diksmuiden small town behind the dunes storms veurne small town behind the dunes storms monnikerede small town on the damme canal storms st.-anna-ter-muiden* village on the zwin storms nieuwpoort seaport town (fisheries) storms oostende seaport town (fisheries) storms oudenburg village behind the dunes storms because area no. 6 has already been studied, accounts of towns located on the belgian coast were added along with additional dyke accounts that go further back in time than 1488. after having adapted the three quality criteria, eight out of eleven initially selected series of town accounts had to be left out. reconstruction of storm frequency 54 nieuwpoort is an old seaport town, which economy was based on herring fishery.6 it flourished during the late 15 th and the 16 th century and shared many common interests with its neighbours (dunkirk and oostende). the nieuwpoort town accounts are very important, because they give information about the maintenance of the dunes, the cities harbour, dams, quays, groins, sluices and some large buildings such as lighthouses, which very often results in a description of the impact of high tides and storms in terms of damage.7 until the 1520s the town account gives very detailed information on a weekly (sometimes even daily) basis in terms of a full report of maintenance work carried out and expenses made by officials travelling to neighbouring cities or to the government to report damage events. some of the information even covered several pages of the town account rendering it an excellent source for proxy data on high tides, storms and gales. unfortunately this changed during the 1520s when detailed reports were left out and replaced by summarized entries. from then on detailed reports were exclusively used as receipts at the time the account was checked and eventually they got lost and only the huge gales and storm surges were recorded in the nieuwpoort accounts. the oostende and nieuwpoort accounts are very similar in terms of content and layout.8 during the 1450s oostende built its first harbour which resulted in a lot of information about high tides and storms in the town account. moreover this information could also be verified by comparing it to the information coming from the nieuwpoort accounts. again during the first quarter of the 16 th century the administration of the oostende account changed; detailed entries were replaced by summarized entries which resulted in a huge loss of weather information. the remaining accounts of the 16 th and 17 th centuries only provided information about a few huge storm surges. the village of blankenberge (no. 3) is located further north along the belgian coast. during the period under consideration this was a small fishery village. it did not even have a harbour but it had to maintain parts of the dunes that could be damaged during high tides and storms. unfortunately the rather thin accounts of this place eventually proved to have little or no use for the reconstruction of high tides and storm events.9 still further north along the coast and located on the tidal inlet of the zwin was the small town of st.-anna-ter-muiden (no. 4). this town was part of the harbour of bruges-damme-sluis. although this small port had to maintain different kinds of dykes and dams and also harboured a modest fishery fleet, the thin annual accounts proved to have hardly any interest to our subject.10 biervliet (no. 5) was also a small seaport town that made a living from herring fishery and from salt production.11 moreover, the town was completely surrounded by the sea and biervliet had to maintain dykes that suffered from damage during high tides and storm events which was recorded in the annual accounts.12 the town’s salt production is a very special source of weather information. salt was extracted from peat that was dug out in the vicinity of the town. after it had been dried the peat was burned and the ashes were put in large pans with boiling water. these pans were placed in small wooden sheds that were covered with reed roofs. the evaporation of the water produced a kind of salt compound at the bottom of the pans. this process was repeated several times by using water from the estuary of the westerschelde. about 1400 only french salt was being refined in the sheds in the same way. as a result in biervliet numerous fires were continuously burning. such a situation could easily get out of control during windy and very dry or hot weather. because of this risk, people were hired on windy and stormy days and during long spells of drought to keep a close watch on the sheds. the town account has registered all of these stormy days and in most cases it was history of meteorology 2 (2005) 55 registered whether it was stormy or just warm or dry weather. data control through verification of the biervliet data with those of nieuwpoort and oostende enables us to establish the exact weather event that occurred on a particular date. as the town of biervliet was also located on a small island consisting of several small polders it had to protect itself by dykes, that were vulnerable to high tides and storms. the information about dyke maintenance was split from the town account in 1516/7 and included in a separated series of dyke accounts.13 fig. 3. first page of the biervliet town account 1438-1439 (agr cdc, no. 32,076) reconstruction of storm frequency 56 increasingly so the polders east of biervliet (no. 6) faced higher rising tides and during storms the tides were funnelled up resulting in more damage to the dykes. whereas the many dyke accounts and reports of damage during storm events and storm surges for the period 1488 to1609 have already been studied, only some additional series of dyke accounts prior to 1488 have been studied further.14 finally all of the information of the written sources has been compared to two major studies about past weather conditions in the netherlands in general and storm surges in particular. the first one is a study of storm surges and river floods in the netherlands, which is a kind of compilation work that was carried out by gottschalk15 in order to distinguish fact from fiction. the second major study has been carried out by buisman and van engelen, this work contains all kinds of weather events in the low countries and is in fact a kind of published of weather data base.16 discussion of data first some general features of the data will be discussed, then specific data from the written sources will be discussed in more detail. after having applied the historical criticism and additional quality checks to the written sources and the proxy data they yield, only three major time series of town accounts qualified as useful sources of information about high tides, storms, gales and storm surges: nieuwpoort, oostende and biervliet. although some information could be extracted from the blankenberge and st. anna-ter-muiden accounts, most important information about high tides and storm events came from several series of dyke accounts and similar sources from the polder area east of antwerp. the series of written sources cover the 15 th and 16 th century well, except for the biervliet location where the salt production stopped in 1544. this series was replaced by a series of dyke accounts of the island of biervliet. considering the number of accounts the written sources of nieuwpoort, oostende, blankenberghe, st.-anna-ter-muiden and biervliet, the coverage for the 15 th century is 81.5%, for the 16 th century 87.6% and for the 17 th century 76.0%. because high tide and storm events are presented largely uniformly in the accounts, gaps in the oostende accounts could be solved by using the nieuwpoort accounts, etc. in this way even the minor high tides and storm events could be discovered and checked. cross checking of time series proved to be of particular interest for the period that the nieuwpoort and oostende accounts did not any longer include detailed reports on damage and public works carried out anymore. the sudden change in including only summarized entries caused the loss of a lot of vital information on storm and high tides. in order to know which storms and high tides occurred between 1400 and 1625 and how many, the written sources inform us in two ways. first, there is a mention of the storm events. secondly, the accounts inform us about the money spent on damage and the type and the amounts of material used to fix it. let us first look at the type and the amounts of material used in cases of damage. the nieuwpoort accounts give information about the damage caused by storm events to public buildings, its quays, wharfs, sluices and groins. fig. 4. shows the number of weeks spent on the construction and repairs of reed and straw roofs in the city. most significantly roof fixing increased between 1520 and 1565, while the earlier period does not show any conspicuous roof history of meteorology 2 (2005) 57 fixing. although it is temping to look for a direct link between an increase in storminess and roof repairs caused by storms, we should keep in mind that because of it’s booming herring fisheries during the 16 th century nieuwpoort was a fast developing city which resulted in an increase of the number of buildings. on the other hand, if we focus only on the 16 th century there is a direct link between increasing damage to reed and straw roofs during the 1530s and the occurrence of two major storm surges in 1530/2 and 1552 (fig. 5.). evidence to support this direct link comes from the biervliet accounts. the town was severely hit by the storm surges of 13 th of january and 15 th of february 1552. two thatchers worked for 28 days to repair the roofs of the town hall and the market which were partly destroyed by the two tempests.17 in addition to this kind of information it also becomes clear that the two tempests must have reached beaufort 10 or even more. construction and repairs of reed and straw roofs at nieuwpoort, 1500-1565 0 5 10 15 20 25 1500 1510 1520 1530 1540 1550 1560 n u m b er o f w ee k s x x fig. 4. number of weeks working on repairing reed and straw roofs at nieuwpoort, 1500-1565 with the marked (x) storm surge years 1530/2 and 1552. the correlation between increasing damage to reed and straw roofs and storminess is only noticeable in two instances of major storm surges and therefore it is too weak a connection to be able to measure storminess throughout the entire period. therefore we also need to look at the damage caused by high tides and storms to dunes, dykes, wharfs and quays. because annually huge amounts of bundles of reed and sheaves of straw were used to protect the weakest parts of dykes, dunes and groins, we were able to quantify these amounts. fig. 5. represents the number of bundles reed, straw and wicker used for annual maintenance of dunes and groins of the nieuwpoort (ni) and oostende (oo) harbours. this graph shows a variability in time including years of a strong increase in the amounts needed for maintenance that coincides both with storm events and extra repairs that had to be carried out after years of ‘neglect’. in some cases the town’s clerk had forgotten to register last years amounts. some of the peaks are simply explained by a fast development of one of the harbours. reconstruction of storm frequency 58 looking at the annual numbers of reed, straw and the amounts of sods used at oostende to fix damage caused by high tide and storm events even less peaks can be distinguished. moreover it seems that severe damage caused by major storm events, such as major storm surges is answered for in separate accounts of which most have been lost by now. fig. 5. use of reed and straw for coastal protection and annual maintenance at nieuwpoort and oostende, 14201580. because of the inflation during the period and because of the fast development of the city and probably also its harbour it is hard to distinguish the part that high tides and storms may have played. although the amounts of reed and straw used for dyke and dune maintenance can be indicative for high tides and storm events, this kind of information cannot be used exclusively for reconstruction of storminess throughout the period. this in fact mainly leaves us the mentioning of storm and high tide events, the precise year or date and the amount of damage as far as nieuwpoort and oostende are concerned. for instance a group of workers was employed on 17 th of november 1404 on the dunes of nieuwpoort during the “great flood”. work continued for several weeks and also included fixing the large holes that were caused by the flood.18 and at oostende on the 3 rd of january 1496 a gale had knocked out the doors of the lock of the harbour.19 history of meteorology 2 (2005) 59 fig. 6. paragraph of the biervliet town account of 1428-1429 about the fire prevention (agr cdc, no. 32076). the biervliet town accounts provide information about damage caused to dykes by high tides and storms and also give the number of stormy, hot and dry days during which the salt pan fires had to be guarded. on 20th of december 1407 there was a risk of fire in salt sheds, because of a long period of freezing drought.20 another period of long drought occurred in march-april 1451 during which sharp winds also raised a fire hazard.21 in 1410/11, 1417/18 and 1468/69 fires got out of control at biervliet. in nearly all cases of dates of fire prevention mentioned in the biervliet town account the combination of hot, sometimes even cold and dry weather along with sharp winds is vital for causing large scale fires. unfortunately about a quarter of the accounts is missing (blank bars in fig. 7) and that the 16th century ones are less informative about fire prevention, nevertheless the annual number of stormy, hot and dry days during which a fire guard was needed, can be shown. reconstruction of storm frequency 60 annual number of stormy, hot and dry days at biervliet, 14001500 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1400 10 20 30 40 1450 60 70 80 90 1500 n u m b er o f d a y s fig. 7. graph showing the annual number of days of fire prevention at biervliet, 15th century. white bars represent missing years. fig 8 also shows a variability of storminess throughout the 15th century with three peaks of storminess. the first lasted from 1400-1418, the second 1423-1431 and a third period started about 1452 and continued until the beginning of the 1470s. it is hardly possible to assess the wind force during the days that fire prevention was needed. considering the large stocks of dry peat and reed and the straw covered wooden sheds that could very easily catch fire, wind force could range from beaufort 5, 6 or even higher. experimental archaeology could possibly supply an answer, but so far it has not. method in spite of the fact that most of the weather data discussed so far can be indirectly or directly connected to storms and similar weather events, it remains impossible to obtain an overview of storms of or even to have a storm frequency throughout the period. therefore direct and precise information about storms and high tides needs to be used that comes from the town account’s entries that deal with dyke and other kinds of maintenance mentioning the date of the storm event, the extent of the damage and other specific information. similar information is provided by the numerous dyke accounts from the polder area located between biervliet and antwerp.22 in order to get an insight into the variability of storms throughout the period 1400– 1625 first an annual inventory of high tide and storm events needs to be made. such an inventory already exists (1488-1609), but also needs to includes the new high quality data coming from the written sources discussed so far earlier on. this data base can then be extrapolated back into time. basically, there are two ways of reconstruction storminess. the first and by far the easiest way is by just counting the number of weather events. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 61 high tides, storms and storm surges along the belgian coast and in the westerschelde basin, 1400-1625 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 in d ic es annual indices 11 years smooth fig. 8. annual number of high tides, storms and storm surges on the belgian coast and in the westerschelde estuary, 1400-1626. however, this does not justify the impact individual storm events may have had. an event may occur at one place, while it is not mentioned at another place. a storm event may have caused huge damage all over the coastal area, such as flooding and it may be mentioned in numerous entries in all accounts. therefore additional criteria are needed. these criteria can be summarized in four categories. • wording system or vocabulary which takes into account the way the events is described, such as high tide, flood, storm or tempest, sharp wind, etc.23 for instance a ‘high tide’ should be assessed differently from a ‘severe flood.’ • size of the damage in terms of the number of acres flooded, the amounts of reed, straw and sods used for repairs.24 several breaches in a dyke should be assessed differently from sand being blown off the dunes near nieuwpoort. • locally, regionally determined or having a much wider range. high tide and storm events that occur at several locations, for instance nieuwpoort, oostende, biervliet and in terms of serious damage to dykes in the polders east of this town need to be assessed differently from the mention in terms of a storm that only occurred at st.-anna-ter-muiden. • duration of the event: one high tide or three spring tides during a severe storm surge. especially storm surges may last for more than just one day. ‘long’ lasting storm events cause the second or third high tide (spring tide) to rise even higher than the first and is therefore to be much more damaging. these four criteria and their variables have been included in eight categories resulting in the method that has been established earlier. this method is still valid and only needs to be adjusted in some detail. reconstruction of storm frequency 62 table 2. the eight categories used in this study with a short characterisation of the high tide or storm event and description of specific features. value phenomenon consequences, spatial scale, duration…… 1. high tides no damage, only mentioned once 2. high tides coinciding with storms, causing damage 3. storms causing damage at several places at the same time 4. heavy storms causing damage at several places 5. heavy gales causing severe damage, even flooding 6. heavy gale winds heavy and large scale damage and flooding 7. storm surges general and large scale damage restricted to certain areas 8. storm surges general and large scale damage in wide areas results and calibration before the final result is obtained an additional check is needed. this check is the storm frequency of the 15th century and its 11 years smooth compared to, for instance, the annual number of storms and the dry and hot weather at biervliet (fig. 7). from figs. 7 and 8. a significant connection is shown between the overall picture of storm frequency and the storm events at biervliet. again the three peak periods of storm events emerge. this ensures us that our method is valid to reconstruct storminess throughout the period 1400 to 1625. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 63 high tides, storms and storm surges along the belgian coast and in the westerschelde basin, 1400-1625 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 in d ic es annual indices 11 years smooth fig. 9. storm frequency 1400-1625 on the belgian coast and in the westerschelde estuary. surveying the storm frequency of the period 1400 to 1625, roughly five periods of increasing storminess can be distinguished: • first quarter 15th century • about 1460 to 1495 • 1510 to 1530s • 1560 – 1590s • 1610s the next step is to look for connections with contemporary time series of weather events. there are only a few time series of reconstructed temperature and there is hardly any connection between the mann et al25 temperature reconstruction which represents an annual but global temperature reconstruction and our reconstructed storminess 1400-1625. the jones et al26 and briffa27 temperatures reconstruction both representing summer temperature show rather similar results, however, they cannot automatically be used. in spite of their extra-tropical nature they remain far too general and besides disagree amongst themselves.28 this brings us to use the temperatures reconstruction of the netherlands developed by van engelen of which we have used the time series of indices.29 there only seems to be a fair connection between the increase of storminess and summer warming on one hand and the decrease of storminess and summer cooling during the 15th century on the other hand (fig. 10). a comparison of both features for the entire period 1400-1625 hardly shows a distinctive connection between storminess and winter temperature (fig. 12). reconstruction of storm frequency 64 fig. 10. connection between storm frequency and annual summer temperature, 1400-1625 on the belgian coast and in the westerschelde estuary. fig. 11. connection between storm frequency and annual winter temperature, 1400-1625 on the belgian coast and in the westerschelde estuary. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 65 from the comparison of storm frequency with both summer and winter indices of temperatures there appears to be a much more significant variability in storminess than in temperature throughout the period. in order to assess whether this stronger variability is exceptional a comparison with storm frequency over the past 150 years from the westerschelde area has been made (fig. 12). fig. 12. storm frequency 1850-1990 in the westerschelde estuary. fig. 12. represents the accumulated annually height in centimetres of high tides reached in the westerschelde basin. each year shows the total number of the maximum height reached by each spring tide and during each storm surge. therefore the graph not only shows the annual fluctuation but also the general sea level rise in this area. in particular the 1970s and 80s show a strong increase in storminess which then decreases, but still remains at a higher level during the 1990s. if we plot the number of gales beaufort 10 to 12 that occurred between 1910 and 2000 in a graph an increase in storminess which starts during the 1970s is shown. for instance in 1977 there were four days of beaufort. 10. reconstruction of storm frequency 66 fig. 13. storm frequency in the netherlands, 1910-2000 a final comparison could be made with patterns of rainfall of the period under consideration and the north atlantic oscillation. whereas atlantic storms travelling into europe very strongly control rainfall, a direct link could be made between increasing storminess and increasing rainfall throughout for instance central europe. unfortunately, there are no rainfall data sets of the period 1400-1625 available.30 a high nao during winter time coincides with a north-eastward orientation during which depressions push deeply into nw-europe and should, therefore be corresponding with an increasing storminess in the north sea area. although it is tempting to connect the periods of increasing storminess between 1400 and 1625 to a high nao during winter time, far more research is needed to have additional information about high tides and storm events per year and to specify these per season as well, not only for the southern part of the north sea but also for the northern part in order to be able to assess the track of single storm events more precisely. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 67 conclusion the study of proxy data from belgian and dutch series of written sources of the period 1400 to 1625 has provided information about high tides, gales and storm surges in the south eastern part of the north sea. the information is of high quality because the obtained proxy data is continuous over a long period and uniform. moreover the proxy data comes from a large area that is very vulnerable to high tides and storms and consists of the entire belgian coastal plain and the estuary westerschelde. studying a larger area and using new and additional time series of written accounts has enabled us to not only verify our data but also to draw more fundamental conclusions. first, the data base of high tides, storms and storm surges has been extended back to 1400 by adding many previously unknown events. most of these could be dated with great precision. secondly, by using a method that reckons with the terminology, damage-size, geographical distribution and the duration of high tides and storm events by assessing each single event, it has become possible to reconstruct storminess throughout the entire period. from the storm frequency over 2.25 centuries five distinctive periods of increasing storminess emerge of which the second half of the 16 th century stands out most strongly. thirdly, comparison with mean annual temperature reconstruction carried out by man, jones and briffa showed a weak connection between a drop in temperature and increasing storminess. but comparisons with three that largely disagree amongst themselves proved to be very difficult. fourthly, the comparison with summer and winter temperature reconstruction from the period under consideration that was only carried out for the netherlands showed a significant connection between storminess and annual summer temperature, especially for the 15 th century. fifthly, a comparison with the sea level change of the past 1.5 centuries in the westerschelde estuary again shows a connection between increasing storminess and accelerated sea level rise. sixthly, a comparison between the gales beaufort 10 –12 of the 20st century and our reconstructed storm frequency also show a significant variability looking at future research on storminess this can be summarized as follows. it is possible to push the storm frequency further back into time by a few decades by studying additional time series of belgian accounts from the coastal area. some decades of the period 1400 to 1625 still need some additional proxy data in order to verify the reconstructed storm frequency time series as it is now. more importantly still, is to bridge the period from 1626 to the 18 th century in order to have a comparison with some of the early instrumental time series and to connect with the nao time series and additional temperature and rainfall reconstructions. bridging this gap can be achieved by studying the huge number of dyke accounts that date from the 17 th century. acknowledgements prof. dr. g.j. borger and drs. a. kattenberg (institute for geo and bioarchaeology, vrije universiteit, amsterdam). reconstruction of storm frequency 68 endnotes 1 de kraker, a.m.j., 1999, “a method to assess the impact of high tides, storms and storm surges as vital elements in climatic history. the case of stormy weather and dikes in the northern part of flanders, 1488 to 1609”, climatic change, 43, 287-302. 2 geurts, h.a.m., and a.f.v. van engelen, 1992, geschiedenis van weerkundige waarnemingen in het bijzonder in nederland voor de oprichting van het k.n.m.i., de bilt, 1983. h.a.m. geurts and a.f.v. van engelen, beschrijving antieke meetreeksen, part v. knmi, publication no. 165-v, de bilt. 3 demarée, g., 1993, “on the re-discovery of the xviii-the century daily meteorological observations carried out at verviers by g.l. godart”, bulletin de la société belge d’ tudes géographiques, 2e, 1990, 171-181. g. demarée, “guillaume lambert godart: médecin, philosophe et météorologiste. un avant oublié du xviiie siècle”, ciel et terre, 109, 47-51. 4 ogilvie, astrid, and graham farmer, 1999, “documenting the medieval climate”, mike hulm and elaine barrow (eds.) climates of the british isles, routledge london and new york, 1997, 112-134. pfister, chr., and rudolf brázdil, “climate variability in sixteenth century europe and its social dimensions. a synthesis”, climatic change, 43, 5-53. 5 ladurie, e. le roy, 1959, “histoire et climat”, annales, economies, sociétés et civilisations, 4 e , 3-34. 6 dumon, r., geschiedenis van nieuwpoort, langemark, 1989; r. degryse, de vroegste geschiedenis van nieuwpoort: een havenstad en omgeving in westelijk vlaanderen tot 1386, nieuwpoort, 1994. 7 archives générales du royaume (brussels, belgium, referred to as agr), chambre des comptes (referred to as cdc), nos. 36,706-36,920 (1401-1625). 8 agr cdc, nos. 37,239-37,424 (1403-1625). studied as far as no. 37,360. 9 agr cdc, nos. 32,148-32,305 (1400-1625). studied as far as no. 32,165. 10 agr cdc, nos. 36,547-36,564 (1400-1430). 11 mertens, j., 1963, “biervliet, een laatmiddeleeuws centrum van zoutwinning (1 e helft xve eeuw) ”, handelingen van de maatschappij voor geschiedenis en oudheidkunde te gent. nieuwe reeks, 105-117. 12 agr cdc, nos. 32,06-32,147 (1404-1516) and nos. 6891-6898 (1516-1583). studied as far as 1544 when salt production stopped. 13 agr cdc, nos. 27,813-27,863 (1530-1583). zeeland archives (middelburg, the netherlands), rekenkamer, nos. b 3,468b 3,505 (1583-1625). 14 kraker, a.m.j., 1997, landschap uit balans, de invloed van de natuur, de economie en de politiek op de ontwikkeling van het landschap in de vier ambachten tussen 1488 en 1609, matrijs – utrecht, ch. 11. a.m.j. de kraker and w.e.m. bauwens, 2000, polders en waterschappen in het hulsterambacht, de geschiedenis van zeedijken, vooroever, binnenwater, wegen en van de bestuurlijke organisatie van de waterschappen in het voormalige hulsterambacht tussen 1600 en 1999, duerinck, kloosterzande. 15 gottschalk, m.k.e., 1971-1977, stormvloeden en rivieroverstromingen in de nederlanden, 3 vols., van gorcum assen. 16 buisman, jan and a.f.v. van engelen, 1995-2000, duizend jaar weer, wind en water in de lage landen, 1575-1675. 4 vols. franeker,. 17 agr cdc, no. 6894 (1551-1552) 18 agr cdc, no. 36,710 (1404-1405). history of meteorology 2 (2005) 69 19 agr cdc, no. 37,318 (1495-1496). 20 agr cdc, no. 32,064 (1407-1408). 21 agr cdc, no. 32,090 (1450-1451). 22 de kraker, 1997 and de kraker, 1999. 23 de kraker, a.m.j., 2000, “the oldest dutch ship’s logs (1595-1610) their interest for climate history in general and global climatic change in particular”, mikami, t., (ed.) proceedings of the international conference. climate change and variability – past, present and future tokyo, 13-17 sept. 1999. tokyo metropolitan university 95-101. 24 de kraker, a.m.j., 2000, “storm surges, high tides and storms as extreme weather events, their impact on the coastal zone of the north sea and the human response, 1350 to 2000”. obrebska-starkel, b., (ed.) reconstructions of climate and its modelling. millennium images and reconstructions of weather and climate over the last millennium, institute of geography of the jagiellonian university, cracow, 85-101. 25 mann, m.e., r.s. bradley and m.k. hughes, 1999, “northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties and limitations”, geophysical research. letters, 26, 759-762. 26 jones, p.d., k.r. briffa, r.p. barnett and s.f.b. tett, 1998, “high resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with general circulation model control-run temperatures’, the holocene, 8, 455-471. 27 briffa, k.r., 2000, “annual climate variability in the holocene interpreting the message of ancient trees”, quarternary science reviews, 19, 87-105. 28 von storch, h., e. zorita, j.m. jones, y. dimitriev, f. gonzález-rouco and s.f.b. tett, 2004, “reconstructing past climate from noisy data”, science 306, 679-682. cf. stephen mcintyre and ross mckitrick, “hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance”, geophysical research letters, 32, l03710, 2005, 1-5. 29 van engelen, a.f.v., j. buisman and f. ijnsen, 2002, “a millennium of weather, winds and water in the low countries”, p.d. jones, a.e.j. ogilvie, t.d. davies and k.r. briffa (eds), history and climate. memories of the future?. kluwer academic/plenum publishers, new york, boston, dordrecht, london, moscow, 101-125 30 rodrigo, p.s., m.j, estaban-parra and y. castro-diez, “an attempt to reconstruct the rainfall regime of andalusia (southern spain) from 1601 a.d. to 1650 a.d. using historical documents”, climatic change, 27, 1994, 397-418. wales-smith, b.g., 1971, “monthly and annual totals of rain-fall representative of kew, surrey, from 1697 to 1970”, meteorological magazine, 100, 345-362. wales-smith, b.g., 1973, “an analysis of monthly rainfall totals representative of kew, surry from 1697 to 1970”, meteorological magazine, 102, 157-171. reconstruction of storm frequency 70 microsoft word 01persson.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 1 the coriolis effect: four centuries of conflict between common sense and mathematics, part i: a history to 1885 anders o. persson department for research and development swedish meteorological and hydrological institute se 601 71 norrköping, sweden the deflective force due to the earth’s rotation, which is the key to the explanation of many phenomena in connection with the winds and the currents of the ocean, does not seem to be understood by meteorologists and writers on physical geography—william ferrel1 introduction: the 1905 debate one hundred years ago the german journal annalen der physik, the same 1905 volume in which albert einstein published his first five ground breaking articles, provided a forum for a debate between three physicists, a. denizot, m.p. rudzki and l. tesa on the correct interpretation of the coriolis force2. the debate was complicated by many side issues, but the main problem was this: if the foucault pendulum was oscillating, as it was often assumed3, with its plane of swing fixed relative to the stars, why then was not the period the same, 23 hours and 56 minutes, everywhere on earth and not only at the poles? instead it was 28 hours in helsinki, 30 hours in paris and 48 hours in casablanca, i.e. the sidereal day divided by the sine of latitude. at the equator the period was infinite; there was no deflection. this could only mean that the plane of swing indeed was turning relative the stars. but how could then, as it was assumed, a “fictitious” inertial force be responsible for the turning? one hundred years later, einstein’s five papers published in 1905 in annalen der physik are commonly used in undergraduate physics education whereas teachers and students, just like denizot, rudzki and tesa , still struggle to come to terms with the coriolis effect. this essay will sketch the complex and contradictory historical development of understanding the coriolis effect to about 1885. the continuing confusion since then is another story, but is undoubtedly related to our “aristotelian” common sense. the reader’s attention is directed to the copious endnotes for additional details. coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 2 the coriolis effect – the basic mathematics at the outset it seems appropriate to remind ourselves what is generally agreed on with respect to the deflective mechanism in rotating systems. a mass particle (m) that is stationary in a rotating system ( ) at a distance r from the center of rotation, appears to an observer taking part in the rotation, to be affected by a centrifugal force c = m( ( r). if the particle is not stationary but moves (vr) relative to the rotating system, it appears to be affected by an additional force f = -2m vr . the cross product indicates that f is perpendicular both to the relative motion vr and to the rotational axis . for this reason, and not only because the force is inertial, the coriolis force does not do any work, i.e. it does not change the speed (kinetic energy) of the body, only the direction of its motion. the statement that the coriolis force “does not do any work” should not be misunderstood to mean that it “doesn’t do anything”4. the cross product also tells us that only motions, or components of motions, perpendicular to are deflected. this will help us to explain why the coriolis force on a rotating planet varies with the sine of latitude , f= -2m sin vr , the “sine law.” since the coriolis force is perpendicular to vr a body in constant relative horizontal motion is driven into a circular path, or “inertia circle,” with radius r=vr/2 and a period of = / . at latitude 43º where 2 sin is approximately equal to 10-4s-1, a motion of 10 m/s would correspond to an inertia circle of 100 km radius. the clearest example in nature of the coriolis effect is inertia oscillations in the oceans (fig.1). other clear examples involve equatorial upwelling, taylor columns, gyroscopes and lagrange points5. fig. 1. drifting buoys set in motion by strong winds tend, when the wind has decreased, to move under inertia and follow approximately inertia circles—in the case of steady ocean currents, cycloids. the example is taken from oceanographic measurements taken in summer 1969 in the baltic sea just southeast of stockholm (courtesy barry broman at the oceanographic department at smhi). history of meteorology 2 (2005) 3 in contrast to “normal” inertia, which resists changes in a body’s motion, the coriolis inertial force resists displacements by trying to return the body by a circular motion to the origin (fig. 2). any mathematical derivation or intuitive explanations of the coriolis force, which is in conflict with the notion of the inertia circle motion, is therefore misleading, incomplete or wrong. fig. 2. a) the coriolis force tends to restore a body to its initial position. this hinders the geographical displacement of air masses. the vortices and jet streams are the consequences of two opposing forces, one (the pressure gradient force) trying to equalize large-scale density contrasts, the other (the coriolis force) trying to restore them. b) due to the latitudinal variation of the coriolis force, the inertia circles are actually spirals transporting mass westward, the so-called -effect. as a consequence of this latitudinal variation the inertial horizontal motion will be more curved in higher latitudes than in lower and lead to a westward migration of successive inertial evolutions. this “ -effect” accounts partly for the dynamics of large-scale planetary (rossby) waves and the asymmetry of the gulf stream. but the coriolis effect is only one part of a three dimensional deflective mechanism discovered and discussed at separate historical epochs: 1. the horizontal deflection of vertical motion in the 17th and early 19th century, 2. the vertical deflection of horizontal motion (the eötvös effect) in the late 19th and early 20th century, and 3. the horizontal deflection of horizontal motion (the coriolis effect) from the early18th century until our times. let us consider each of these mechanisms in greater detail. coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 4 horizontal deflection of vertical motion during the 17th century the possible deflection of falling objects was considered a means of proving or disproving the copernican theory that earth rotates and not the stars. the debate became known in england through a memorandum by david gregory in 1668. in november 1679 robert hooke, in his capacity as newly elected secretary of the royal society, tried to draw isaac newton into a discussion on the motions of the planets and comets. but newton had something else on his mind, “a fancy of my own,” that the horizontal deflection of objects dropped from a high altitude could stand as proof of the earth's rotation. newton had just returned from a long vacation at his family home in lincolnshire where he might have been inspired by watching apples fall in the garden6. the exchange of letters that followed during the winter 1679-80 shows that newton had not yet ascquired a deeper understanding of celestial mechanics. his first idea was that a falling object would follow a trajectory that, in principle, approaches the centre of the earth in a spiral. thanks to hooke, he came to realize that that the fall of the body must be treated as an elliptic orbit with the centre of the earth in one of its foci (fig. 3). fig. 3. a) newton’s first intuitive idea was that the trajectory of a falling object would spiral towards the centre of the earth, b) just considering conservation of absolute velocity would result in a parabolic path (dashed line), while the true trajectory would be an ellipse (solid line). from the insight that a falling object in absolute space follows the same type of orbit as any of the planets or comets around the sun, it was possible for newton to infer that the motions of all terrestrial and extra-terrestrial bodies might be controlled by the same mechanism, universal gravitation. when newton was looking for what we would now call the coriolis effect, he found the laws of motion7. more than a century after newton, in 1803, an experiment was conducted in schlebusch, germany that attracted the interest of the scientific community. twenty-nine iron pebbles were dropped into a 90-meter deep mineshaft. the average deflection was estimated to be 8.5 mm. before the event the 24-year carl friedrich gauss and the 53-year pierre simon de laplace volunteered to calculate the theoretically expected deflection. both came up with an expected deflection of 8.8 mm by deriving the full three-dimensional equation for motions on a rotating earth. they specifically pointed out what mechanisms were responsible for the deflection. gauss and laplace must therefore be regarded as the first scientists to contribute to the history of meteorology 2 (2005) 5 understanding of the coriolis effect and the proof of the rotation of the earth. in 1831 the experiment was repeated in a 158.5 m deep mine in freiburg, saxony. from 106 drops an average deflection of 28.3 mm was estimated, close to the theoretical value of 27.5 mm8. well into the 20th century there was a controversy over a possible slight southward deflection, which turned up in some experiments and derivations. the heart of the matter depends on how we define “vertical”. due to the non-spherical shape of the earth the upper part of a plumb line is at a slightly (very slightly!) higher latitude than the plumb itself9. vertical deflection of horizontal motion (the eötvös effect) in the early twentieth century a german team from the institute of geodesy in potsdam carried out gravity measurements on moving ships in the atlantic, indian and pacific oceans. while studying the results the hungarian nobleman and physicist lorand roland eötvös (18481919) noticed that the readings were lower when the boat moved eastwards, higher when it moved westward. he identified this as primarily a consequence of the rotation of the earth. to demonstrate the effect, eötvös constructed a balance with a horizontal axis, where, instead of pans, weights are attached to the end of the arms. when the balance is rotated the weight moving towards the west will become heavier, the one moving towards the east lighter and will deflect from its state of equilibrium. this proof of the earth’s rotation is perhaps of greater significance than foucault’s pendulum experiment since it also works on the equator. in 1908 new measurements were made in the black sea on two ships, one moving eastward and one westward (fig. 4). the results substantiated eötvös' claim. since then geodesists use the correction formula r vu ua r 22 cos2 + += where ar is the relative acceleration, r is the radius of the earth. the first term is the vertical coriolis effect, the second term reflects the upward centrifugal effect of moving over any spherical surface, also non-rotating ones. fig. 4. the eötvös effect measured by a french research vessel in the south indian ocean. the ship is first moving slowly in a westerly direction (16), then faster westward (17), and finally slowly eastward (18). the units on the y-axis indicate gravity and are inversely proportional to the ship’s weight. figure courtesy of dr helen hebert, laboratoire de détection et de géophysique, bruyères-le-chatel, france. coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 6 the possible relevance of the “eötvös effect” for meteorology was discussed ten years before eötvös’ discovery. in 1894-97 the swedish meteorologist nils ekholm hypothesized that the vertical deflection of horizontal motion played an important role in atmospheric dynamics10. horizontal deflection of horizontal motion (before coriolis) in 1735 george hadley (1686-1768) suggested that, since the surface of the earth at the equator moved faster than the surface at higher latitudes, air that moved towards the equator would gradually lag behind and be observed as a ne wind north of the equator and a se wind south of the equator (fig. 5). hadley’s model, although a great step forward for its time, is incorrect for three reasons: 1. bodies moving under frictionless conditions on the surface of a rotating planet will not conserve their absolute velocity. 2. even if they did, hadley’s scenario will mathematically explain only half the coriolis force. 3. finally, hadley’s explanation suggests that the deflection only occurs for meridional motion. the fact that the observed winds in the tropics were only a fraction of what hadley’s model suggested, was explained by the effect of friction. fig. 5. two erroneous images of the deflection mechanism: a) conservation of absolute velocity and b) motion along great circles. the latter appears to work for eastward motion, but not for westward motion. some years after hadley, in 1742, the french mathematician a.c. clairaut (1713-65) discussed the deflection of relative motion on a flat rotating platform, also in terms of conservation of absolute velocity. he therefore obtained the same underestimation as hadley.11 pierre simone laplace (1749-1827) is often considered to be the “true” discoverer of the coriolis effect since his 1775-76 papers on the equations of motion on a rotating planet contain the 2 -term12. but laplace did not make any correct physical interpretation of this term. on the contrary, in his physical explanations of the trade winds he used hadley’s erroneous model13. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 7 it is not clear if laplace in 1775-76 knew about hadley’s 1735 paper or if he independently had reached the same “common sense” explanation. it is normally thought that hadley’s paper lay dormant till the end of the 18th century when john dalton (1766-1844) championed it in 1793. according to dalton the swiss scientist jean andré de luc (17271817), who lived in england, had thought along the same lines some 15 years earlier14. hadley’s explanation was later adopted by the german meteorologist heinrich w. dove (1803-79) and became known as the dove-hadley theory. dove gained his reputation from his “law of the wind turning” (drehungsgesetz) according to which the wind locally tended to change from s to w to n to e to s, i.e. locally to the right. this “law” only reflected the climatological fact that most cyclones travel eastward. in 1843 the american charles tracy tried to show that the deflection was also valid for east-west motion. erroneously, he thought the spherical shape of the earth was the prime reason for the deflection. he therefore argued that inertial motion should follow a great circle and for that reason eastward motion deviated to the south, to the right.15 tracy evaded the embarrassing fact that that his model suggests that westward motion is deflected to the left (fig. 5b). gaspard gustave coriolis and “his” force at the start of the industrial revolution a radical and patriotic movement developed in france to promote technical development by educating workers, craftsmen and engineers in “mechanique rationelle.” gaspard gustave coriolis (1792-1843), a well-respected teacher at l’ecole polytechnique in paris, published in 1829 a textbook which presented mechanics in a way that could be used by industry. here we find for the first time the correct expression for kinetic energy, mv2/2. two years later he established the relation between potential and kinetic energy in a rotating system16. in 1835 coriolis published the paper that would make his name famous: “sur les equations du mouvement relatif des systemes de corps,” where the “deflective force” explicitly appears. the problem coriolis set out to solve was related to the design of certain types of machines with separate parts, moving relative to the rotation. coriolis showed that the total inertial force is the sum of two inertial forces, the common centrifugal force 2r and the “compound centrifugal force” 2 vr , the “coriolis force”(fig.6) 17. this is in agreement with the standard equation mar = ma – 2m vr m ( r) where the last two terms for inertial motion (ma=0) represents the total inertial force. coriolis was not as interested in “his” force as much as we are. he only valued it in combination with the common centrifugal force. in this view the coriolis force is the difference between two inertial forces, or rather the part of the total inertial force, which is not explained by the common centrifugal force (fig.6). coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 8 fig. 6. an object fixed to a rotating platform follows a curved trajectory and is affected by a total inertial force, which is the “common” centrifugal force. the body can move along the same trajectory, also as a consequence of a combination of the rotation and the motion relative the platform. the total inertial force is the same, but is now the sum of the common centrifugal force and the “coriolis force.” french investigations before and after the foucault experiment 1851 coriolis’ 1835 paper directly influenced simon p. poisson (1781-1840) who, a few years later, made an analysis on the deflection of artillery shells18. coriolis’ and poisson’s papers were highly mathematical, however, and were not easily accessible. in 1847 the french mathematician joseph l. f. bertrand (1822-1900) suggested to the french academy a “simplified” derivation. he made two common sense, but erroneous, assumptions: a) conservation of absolute velocity and b) the deflective acceleration on a rotating turntable is constant and only due to the coriolis effect19. the first assumption underestimates the coriolis effect and the second overestimates it so the errors cancel out (fig.7). bertrand’s derivation became popular and entered meteorology in the 1880s. if we today are grappling to understand the coriolis effect, one source of confusion is this “simple” but deceptive derivation, which appears to justify two frequent misconceptions. on pages 6 and 21-24 in his 1838 paper poisson ruled out any effect on a swinging pendulum. this was refuted by foucault's historical pendulum experiment in 1851, which is often quoted as a clear observational evidence of the coriolis effect, since it is thought that the swing of plane is fixed versus the stars. as discussed above, the plane of swing indeed turns versus the stars. that means that a real force is doing work, the component of gravitation perpendicular to . only at the poles is this component zero20. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 9 fig. 7. joseph bertrand and his “simplified” geometrical derivation. an object on a turntable at a distance r from the centre of rotation is moving radially outwards with a relative velocity vr= r/ t . due to the rotation the relative velocity is supposed, due to an erroneous assumption about conservation of velocity, to be subject to a deflective acceleration a, which erroneously is assumed constant. the deflected distance s during t can be expressed both as s=a( t)2/2 and s= r t which yields a=2 vr. anyone looking for a “simplified” derivation would have been wise to consult the british mathematician o’brien, one of the early proponents of vector notations. he made in april 1852 what seems to be the first algebraic derivation of the coriolis force by making use of the relation aù aa += r dt d dt d which applied on a position vector r yields rù rr += r dt d dt d or rùvv r += and applied on a velocity vector r dt d = r v yields )( )( rùùvù rùv vù vv r +++=+= r rrr dt d dt d dt d dt d which simplifies into )(2 rùùvù vv ++= r r dt d dt d and )(2 rùùvù vv = r r dt d dt d where the term -2 vr in o’brien’s words, was “the force which must be supposed to act as a correction for the neglected rotation”21. the mechanical and geophysical debates around 1860 in autumn 1859 the french academy had a comprehensive debate about the effects of the earth’s rotation on terrestrial motion. the triggering factor seems to have been a inference by the baltic-german naturalist karl ernst von baer (1792-1876) that the meandering of the northsouth running siberian rivers was due to the rotation of the earth22. von baer, who was a firm believer in the hadley-dove model, rejected any notion that the rotation of the earth had any effect on the rivers which flow from east to west. the french academy had problems in tallying this with the meandering of east-west flowing rivers like the seine and loire. it might have been coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 10 the meanders of their own rivers that sowed the first seeds of doubt in french minds about the correctness of hadley’s model. jacques babinet (1794-1872) admitted that “everybody and first of all he” had been “completely wrong” not to realize that the deflective mechanism worked for all directions, not just north-south. joseph bertrand, on the other hand, denied there was any deflection of eastwest motion. babinet tried to derive the deflection of east-west motion, but made an error and only got vrsin , half of the correct value. charles e. delaunay (1816-72), a prestigious astronomer and author of an influential textbook in mechanics, then made a comprehensive pedagogic presentation. he reminded the audience that the “weight” of a stationary body was the combination of the gravitational attraction and the centrifugal effect of the earth’s rotation. but when the body moved relative to the earth “things change completely”: the compound centrifugal force goes to combine its effect with the one that is due to the effect of the weight of the body. and the result thereof in the movement are the changes which reveal to us the existence of the rotation of the earth. delaunay showed, in part by quoting coriolis’ 1835 paper, that the deflection worked in all directions and was proportional to 2 , double the angular velocity. he also suggested that flowing water in a canal would have an inclined surface with a higher level on the right side. the incorrigible bertrand found the concept of “fictitious force” useless since it could not explain “real causes.” he was also critical of delaunay’s explanation of gravity and finally called out that “everybody seemed to admit the absence of any measurable influence of the earth’s rotation on the flow of water.” guillame piobert (1793-1871) reminded the audience about poisson’s 1838 work, which showed that the deflection was to the right. babinet listed the foucault’s pendulum, the deflection of projectiles, falling objects and many other physical examples of the deflective mechanism. one was “the effect of the wind on a lake, that according to mr. foucault’s law, tends to impose a movement always directed in the same direction, independent of the direction of the wind”23. both babinet, and after him charles combes (1801-72), presented an expression for the inclination of river surfaces which was essentially the geostrophic balance (fig.8). combes introduced the concept of inertia circle and showed that that at 45° latitude a 3 m/s motion would move around in a circle of 29 kilometers radius 24. fig. 8. the slope of the surface of river with a flow v is proportional, per unit mass, to the coriolis force (fv) and the weight of the water (g), which yields the geostrophic relation v=g/f dz/dx. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 11 the french discussions on deflection of flowing water in rivers are related to the problem of the sideways acceleration of constrained motion, like trains on rails. this was taken up by the austrian-russian scientist nikolai d. braschmann (1796-1866) and promoted by the german professor georg adolph erman (1806-77)25. william ferrel and the geophysical implications of foucault’s experiment at this time an unknown schoolteacher in nashville, tennessee, usa applied the equations of motion on a rotating sphere to meteorological problems, in particular the global circulation. william ferrel (1817-91) a farmer’s son from pennsylvania was in his late 30s when two books challenged him to venture into a new direction. one was laplace’s mechanique celeste; the other was matthew f. maury’s 1855 physical geography of the sea which ferrel found unscientific. in 1856 ferrel argued, in the first of a series of articles, that the motion of the atmosphere was governed by four mechanisms: the change of density distribution due to differential heating, the flow of air from high pressure to low pressure and the two “forces” due to the earth’s rotation, both known to ferrel from laplace’s tidal equations. one of these forces ferrel recognized from “hadley’s theory”, about which the reader was “no doubt familiar.” he had not yet discovered hadley’s error in assuming conservation of absolute motion and only criticized him for having disregarded the deflection of east-west motion. ferrel identified “a new force” as the unbalanced centrifugal force due to the combination of the earth’s eastward rotation and any east-west relative motion. ferrel’s two forces we today know as the east-west and the north-south components of the coriolis effect. due to an erroneous derivation or misunderstanding of laplace’s equations, ferrel had got the impression that first force was smaller than the second by a factor of cos . any misinterpretations were soon rectified in two brief papers published in the astronomical journal in january 1858 where he correctly derived expressions for the deflective mechanism in all three dimensions. he stated what became known as “ferrel’s law”: if a body is moving in any direction, there is a force arising from the earth’s rotation, which always deflects it to the right in the northern hemisphere, and to the left on the southern. he briefly discussed the deflection of projectiles and established that falling objects only deviate in the eastwest direction. ferrel seems to be the first scientist to identify the inertia circle motion: “if a body receives a motion in any direction, it describes the circumference of a circle, if the range of motion is small, the radius of which is determined by [v/2 sin ]; and the time of its performing a revolution is equal to the time of the earth’s rotation divided by twice the sine of the latitude.” he realized that the larger the range of motion, the more it deviates from a circle. but from the fact that the curve must always be symmetrical on each side of the central median, he wrongly assumed that the body would return to the point from which it started, and thus did not discover the west drift caused by the -effect. one year later ferrel published a detailed mathematical derivation not only of the deflective mechanism but also of the possible consequences for the general circulation of the atmosphere. at the end he makes the important observation that the effect of the earth’s rotation is to constrain the air mass flow by inertia circle motion, in particular holding back the exchange between lower and higher latitudes: the motion towards the poles in the upper regions causes an eastward motion which gives rise to a force toward the equator, and which, consequently, counteracts the motion toward the poles, coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 12 and the motion toward the equator produces a westward motion which gives rise to a force acting in the direction of the poles, which counteracts the motion toward the equator. from this insight he was able to infer that if the rotation decreased there would be “a sweeping hurricane from the pole to the equator.” he also ascribed “the maximum accumulation of the atmosphere near the parallel of 30” (the subtropical highs) to “the heaping up of the atmosphere”26. growing opposition to the hadley model, 1860-80 by 1860 it was mathematically established that the deflective effect of the earth’s rotation was 2 vsin , that it worked in all directions, and that it drew a moving body into an inertial circle with radius vr/2 sin . still, hadley’s explanation dominated the literature, in particular in germany where h.w. dove was still supreme. but the criticism was growing. in 1869 adolph mühry (1810-88) rejected the prevailing “mathematical conception” of deflection due to meridional rotation differences, since they were based on inertial motion from an impulse and did not consider the real physical processes. according to mühry, “one cannot compare the motions of the air with a fired cannonball.”27 in the 1860’s ferrel’s work started to become noticed in europe. dove, who could not distinguish between local and individual derivatives, claimed that his “law”, which indicated a local turning to the right of the wind, was consistent with “ferrel’s law”. some questioned if the rotation of the earth had any influence on the weather at all since the hadley-dove explanation predicted 40 m/s easterly winds at the equator. a great step forward in the development of meteorology in germany was the founding of the deutsche seewarte in hamburg in 1875. its first director georg von neumayer (1826-1909) encouraged the norwegian meteorologist henrik mohn (1835-1916) to issue a german edition of his book om vind og vejr. when mohn in 1876, together with his countryman c.w. guldberg, published études sur les mouvements de l’atmosphère, julius hann (1839-1921), editor of the vienna-based zeitschrift für meteorologie, requested and was given a more accessible german version. in 1877 professor joseph finger at university of vienna set out to derive the equations of motion on a non-spherical, spheroid earth. in 1877 carl benoni, professor in lemberg (then in austrian poland, later lwow in poland and now lviv in ukraine) in defense of dove, stated that ferrel’s law was “obviously incorrect”. it was, according to benoni, “completely clear” that, when the air flows along any latitude circle on the earth’s surface, the rotational speed does not change and “consequently there can be no deflection due to the earth’s rotation”28. two years later, in 1879, dove died and it is perhaps no coincidence that the first attempt to seriously question the dove-hadley’s explanation now saw the light of day in germany. by this time köppen was director of the research department at deutsche seewarte, which became the leading centre for synoptic and dynamic meteorology. one of their scientists was adolf sprung (1848-1909), who rose to become the leading theoretician in meteorology. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 13 adolph sprung’s contributions in 1879-80 adolph sprung made three contributions to the understanding of the coriolis effect.29 he succeeded in that which ferrel had failed to do: make the correct interpretation of the latitudinal dependence of the coriolis force resulting in a westward spiraling trajectory (fig. 9). fig. 9. inertial motion, away from the equatorial region, according to, from left to right sprung (1879), whipple (1917) and paldor (1988).30 sprung generalized the concept of the coriolis force by showing it to be, in the spirit of coriolis (1835), but probably unaware of his work, an extension of the centrifugal force. he did so by deriving the equations for a relative motion on a flat turntable. he then gave the turntable a parabolic form and showed how this neutralized the common centrifugal force and left only the coriolis force driving the moving object into inertial circles (fig. 10).31 fig. 10. absolute and relative motion of a ball in a parabolic shaped turntable rotating anti-clockwise. a) a ball, stationary in the rotating system, appears from outside to be moving in a circle (full line); b) the ball has been given an impetus and is in the rotating system moving in an clockwise inertia circle, from outside it appears to be moving in an ellipse. (the vertical movement of the ball is neglected since it introduces a slow anticlockwise precession of the ellipse). coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 14 sprung then considered a rotating spheroid and showed that, although the centrifugal force 2r changed by a factor 1 22 sin1 ( = the eccentricity), the coriolis force was not affected. since a component of gravitation, due to the non-spherical form of the earth, always balanced the centrifugal force in the horizontal plane, whatever its magnitude, the only extra fictitious force that had to be taken into account was the coriolis force (fig. 11). fig. 11. for a stationary object on a rotating planet or a rotating parabolic surface the horizontal components of the centrifugal force is balanced by the horizontal component of the gravitational force of the planet and, on the turntable, the horizontal component of the weight of the body. in both cases the component of gravitation and gravity, perpendicular to the rotational axis, equals the centrifugal force. finally, sprung suggested a different mathematical way to deal with the coriolis effect: abandon the notion of relative motion and derive the acceleration in a fixed system. in other words: find the acceleration to prevent a relative motion from being deflected! this acceleration, achieved by some real force is, by some convention, called the coriolis acceleration and written +2 vr . the derivation is simple and newton could have done it by the same euclidean method he used to find the centripetal acceleration in “principia” (fig.12). history of meteorology 2 (2005) 15 fig. 12. a) newton’s derivation of the centripetal acceleration: a body is over time t by the rotation carried from a to b and would, by pure inertia, in the next time interval have continued to c, had it not been affected by a centripetal impetus which brought it to d. by simple geometry one gets cd=r 2( t)2 . in case b) the body is also moving radially with relative velocity v= r/ t and would have continued from b to c, had it not been affected by a centripetal impetus which brought it to d. since acf is proportional to abe and af=2ae, it follows that cf=2be 2 r t and since df 2 (rr) t it follows that gd=gf-df cfdf=2 r t=2 v( t)2 . it can easily be shown that d´efg is a parallelogram with gf perpendicular to ob, so gd bo and the coriolis acceleration is perpendicular to the relative motion – but to the left! sprung does not seem to have been aware that leonard euler already in 1749 derived analytically what was essentially the coriolis acceleration (fig. 13).32 fig. 13. leonard euler’s 1749 derivation of the coriolis acceleration (2drd ) and the so-called euler acceleration (rdd ), which is the acceleration due to variations in the angular velocity. if we multiply euler’s equation 02 2 2 =+ dt d r dt d dt dr with r and integrate, we will get c dt d r = 2 2 2 which is today called “angular momentum conservation,” but is in fact only kepler’s second law, “the area law” (“flächensatz” or “loi des aires”), which is a scalar version of angular momentum conservation. coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 16 another 120 years of conflict between mathematics and common sense after dove’s death the effects of the rotation of the earth was very much “in the air.” in 1879, when sprung published his first monograph, a colleague max thiesen at the prussian meteorological institute in berlin, reviewed finger’s 1877 and ferrel’s 1859-1860 papers. like ferrel he regarded the deflection as a consequence of an imbalanced centrifugal force. he also used the concept of inertial circle33. thiesen’s article started a debate with sprung which soon came to involve other meteorologists and physicists like fr. roth in buxtehude, h. bruns in leipzig, k. weirauch in dorpart (tartu in today’s estonia) and julius hann. hann was at this time working on his handbuch der klimatologie and sprung, upon the request of von neumayer, on a groundbreaking textbook on dynamic meteorology. the debate made to a large extent reference to the motions of the atmosphere and oceans, both to illustrate certain properties of the coriolis effect, but also to explain the atmospheric motions. since this was done without always distinguishing between forced and inertial motion, the discussion could become quite confused. among the “paradoxes” that served to complicate the debate (excluding “mysteries” with the foucault pendulum): 1. the “coriolis force” does not depend on the radius of the earth, which therefore can be treated as a perfect sphere. but on a rotating spherical planet every object would be accelerated towards the equator so there would be no “coriolis effect.” 2. common sense tells us that it is through friction that a body “knows” it is moving over a rotating surface. but how much friction is “needed”? the coriolis force is after all an inertial force and friction would complicate the mathematics… 3. hadley’s model implied 40 m/s trade winds. but we know that his principle of conservation of absolute velocity was wrong, whereas the principle of conservation of absolute angular momentum is correct. but this principle yields 80 m/s trade winds! the german debate is interesting and thought provoking, but we have to stop here. the development up to 1885 can be treated as historical since the problems have been resolved. however, those discussed since are still unsolved or at least controversial. by 1885 almost everything about the coriolis effect was known and widely published. the following 120 years, i.e. up to now, have seen a constant repetition of the discussions and debates of the preceding 120 years, with interesting additions provided by new technological proposals such as a rotating space station.34. in general we meet the same attempt then as now to reconcile mathematics with hadley’s, bertrand’s and others’ flawed but intuitively appealing “common sense” explanations and conceptual models. one can wonder why? it is often said that dynamic meteorology is difficult because of its mathematics, which contains non-linear differential equations. but while the non-linearity makes predictions difficult because of the “butterfly effect,” the mathematics of the coriolis effect is not particularly difficult and is linear. euler’s equation has been used in celestial mechanics for 250 years without causing confusion and endless debates. but these equations and concepts relate to an absolute motion, whereas the coriolis force relates to relative motion, which seems to be history of meteorology 2 (2005) 17 difficult to comprehend intuitively. even more out of reach of everyday life is frictionless motion. correspondents to the american journal of physics have noted that university students cherish naïve, aristotelian ideas about how and why things move. for example, many students believe that forces keep bodies in motion and, conversely, that in the absence of forces bodies are at rest.35 there are no reasons to assume that students in meteorology are immune to this “aristotelian physics” as it has been called. the crux of the matter does not lay in the mathematics but in our common senses which are still aristotelian. coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 18 endnotes 1 william ferrel, nature 4 (1871). 2 the controversy started at the university of cracow (then in austria) over a publication by a. denizot, “theorie der relativen bewegung mit einer anwendung auf das problem der bewegung eines körpers an der oberfläche der rotierenden erde sowie auf den foucaultschen pendelversuch,” bull. acad. sci. d. cracovie (dec. 6, 1904): 449. critical comments were made by m.p. rudzki in the same publication in march 1905. then followed a debate in phys. z. from april 1905 to september 1906 and in ann. d. phys. from july 1905 to february 1906 between a. denizot, l. teza and m.p. rudzki. at the end a retired professor m. koppe from budapest was drawn in. the debate seems to have ended in denizot’s favor because in 1913 he published a book, das foucaultsche pendel (leipzig and berlin, 1913), referenced in meteorol. z. 37 (1920): 101 and in ann. d. hydrog. 50 (1922): 152. 3 there are numerous examples during the 150 years since the first experiment. for modern examples see encyclopedia britannica 8 (1974), 524, “…the pendulum was remaining faithful to its original arc, with respect to space, but the earth was moving under it due to the earth’s rotation.” in a recent book about the foucault pendulum contains the following: “[the] plane of oscillation could not change as the earth rotated under it…. [the] foucault pendulum keeps its plane of oscillation independent of the rotation of the earth.” a.d. aczel, pendulum, léon foucault and the triumph of science (new york: washington square press, 2003), 102, 168, see also 155 and 166. 4 textbooks often go to great lengths to tell the reader that the coriolis force is “fictitious,” “artificial,” a “pseudo force,” or even a “mental construct.” the equally “fictitious” centrifugal force is rarely talked about in this way. this might easily mislead a student into believing that some “fictitious” forces are more fictitious than others. a statement to the effect that the coriolis force is indeed more fictitious than the centrifugal force, a “real physical force”, can be found in professor w.d. mccomb’s university textbook dynamics and relativity (oxford: oxford university press, 1999), 145. 5 for taylor columns see a. persson, “the obstructive coriolis force,” weather 50 (2001): 204-09 and g.k. batchelor, an introduction to fluid dynamics (cambridge: cambridge univ. press, 1967), 556-57. for gyroscopes see a. sommerfeld, mechanics (new york: academic press, 1952), 168-69 and r. lyttleton, the comets and their origin (cambridge: cambridge univ. press, 1953), 17. a large number of asteroids are trapped in jupiter’s two stable lagrange points. see b.w. carroll and d.a. ostlie, an introduction to modern astrophysics (reading, mass.: addison-wesley, 1996), 688, fn. 5); d. hestenes, new foundations for classical mechanics (dordrecht: d. reidel, 1999); c.d. murray and s.f. demott, solar system dynamics (cambridge: cambridge univ. press, 1999); and n.j. cornish, “the lagrange points,” http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/m_mm/ob_techorbit1.html . 6 a. persson, “proving that the earth rotates: the coriolis force and newton’s falling apple,” weather 58 (2003): 264-72. a. armitage, “the deviation of falling bodies,” ann. sci. 5 (1947): 342-51; a. koyré, “a documentary history of the problem of fall from kepler to newton,” trans. amer. phil. soc. 45 (1955): 329-95; h.l. burstyn, “early explanations of the role of the earth’s rotation in the circulation of the atmosphere,” isis 52 (1966):167-87. 7 newton, like galileo (and many others later) had a mental image about the deflection of being an effect of conservation of absolute velocity, which yields a 50 percent larger deflection. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 19 see the letter by l. falk, “deflection of a falling body,” amer. j. phys. 51 (1983): 872, for a case when the swedish school authorities made the same error in an nationwide examination test. 8 j.f. benzenberg, versuche über das gesetz des falles, über den widerstand der luft und über die umdrehung der erde nebst der geschichte aller früheren versuche von galiläi bis auf guglielmini (dortmund: mallinckrodt, 1804), 349-92; c.f. gauss, “fundamentalgleichungen für die bewegung schwere körper auf der rotirenden erde” (1804) in werke 5 (hildesheim: königliche gesellschaft der wissenschaften zu göttingen, 1973), 495-503; p.s. laplace, “mémoire sur le mouvement d’un corps qui tombe d’une grande hauteur,” bull. soc. philométrique de paris 3, no. 75 (1803): 109-15; also in laplace, oeuvres complètes 14 (paris, 1893), 267-77. later work includes f. reich, “fallversuche über die umdrehung der erde,” pogg. ann. 29 (1833): 494; j.f. benzenberg, versuche über die umdrehung der erde aufs neue berechnet (düsseldorf, 1845); w.c. redfield, “effects of the earth's rotation upon falling bodies and upon the atmosphere,” amer. j. sci. (1847): 283-84; j.g. hagen, la rotation de la terre, ses preuves mécaniques anciennes et nouvelles (roma: tipografia poliglotta vaticana, 1911, 1912); d.r. stirling, “the eastward deflection of a falling object,” amer. j. phys. 51 (1983): 236 (see also amer. j. phys. 52 (1984): 562; j.m. potgieter, “an exact solution for horizontal deflection of a falling object,” amer. j. phys. 51 (1983): 257; r.h. romer, “foucault, reich and the mines of freiberg,” amer. j. phys. 51 (1983): 683. 9 e.h. hall, “do objects fall south?” phys. rev. 17 (1903): 179, 245-46; a.p. french, “the deflection of falling objects,” amer. j. phys. 52 (1984): 199; e. reddingius, comment on “the eastward deflection of a falling object,” amer. j. phys. 52 (1984): 562; d.r. sterling, reply to “comment on ‘the eastward deflection of a falling object,” amer. j. phys. 52 (1984): 563; e.a. desloge, “horizontal deflection of a falling object,” amer. j. phys. 54 (1985): 581-82; e. belorizky and j. sivardière, “comments on the horizontal deflection of a falling object,” amer. j. phys. 56 (1987): 1103; and e.a. desloge, “further comment on the horizontal deflection of a falling object,” amer. j. phys. 58 (1989): 282-84. 10 r. eötvös, “experimenteller nachweis der schwereänderung, die ein auf normal geformte erdoberfläche in östlichen oder westlichen richtung bewegter körper durch dieser bewegung erleidet,” ann. d. phys. 59 (1919): 743-52. o. hecker, bestimmung der schwerkraft auf dem schwarzen meere und an dessen kuste, sowie neue ausgleichung der schwerkraft auf dem atlantischen, indischen under grossen ozean (berlin: stankiewicz, 1910). for an early insight into the eötvös effect see w.m. davis, “the deflective effect of the earth's rotation,” amer. meteorol. j. (april 1885): 516-24. also, “eötvös the scientist,” http://www.elgi.hu/museum/elatud_.htm and józsef ádám, “geodesy in hungary and the relation to iag around the turn of 19th/20th century: a historical review” http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~iag/hb2000/part1/historic.htm . for meteorological applications of the eötvös effect see articles by ekholm and sprung, later also köppen and hermann in meteorol. z. (1894-97). a hungarian meteorologist brought up the matter in 1923: e. szolnoki, “die anwendung des eötvöseffektes in der atmosphäre,” meteorol. z. 40 (1923): 28-29. 11 g. hadley, “on the cause of the general trade winds,” phil. trans. roy. soc. of london, 34 (1735): 58-62, reprinted in c. abbe, the mechanics of the earth's atmosphere, smithsonian misc. collections 51, no. 1 (1910). d.b. shaw, meteorology over the tropical oceans, roy. meteorol. soc. (1979); a.c. clairaut, “sur quelques principes donnant la solution coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 20 d'un grand nombre de problèmes,” mém. acad. sci. berlin, pt. 1 (1742): 370-72; r. dugas, a history of mechanics (new york: dover, 1955). it has been claimed, for example by m. jacobi, “immanuel kant und die lehre von den winden,” meteorol. z. 20 (1903): 419-21, that kant discovered the same principle in 1756, independently of hadley. i have not read i. kant, “neue anmerkungen zur erläuterung der theorie der winde,” (1756) from kant, physische geographie 4 (mainz: vollmer, 1805), 37-53, but the extracts by jakobi are not convincing. c. truesdell, essays in the history of mechanics (berlin: springer verlag,1968), 131 confirms that clairaut did not calculate the relative acceleration correctly. 12 p.s. laplace, “recherches sur plusieurs points du système du monde,” mém. acad. roy. d. sci. 88 (1775): 75-182; p.s. laplace, “recherches sur plusieurs points du système du monde,” mém. acad. roy. d. sci. 89 (1776): 177-264. about twenty years later, laplace divided the works, which are essentially technical, although they also contain some qualitative discussions, into two parts. one, mécanique céleste, became the technical part; système du monde became a purely descriptive part. each of these works went through several editions during laplace’s lifetime. when reference is now made to the systeme, what is meant is the descriptive account first published in 1796, not the original memories of 1775-76, which have approximately the same title! i am much indebted to professor george w. platzman for having clarified this to me in 1999. the mathematical derivation is in memoir 2, pp. 187-89, article xxii in the 1796 edition, reprinted in laplace, oeuvres complètes 9. the qualitative discussion is in memoir 1, p. 90, article ii. 13 “the speed of a molecule of the fluid is supposed to remain the same in the latitudinal direction…the closer the air is to the pole, the smaller is its actual speed. consequently, as it approaches the equator, it must turn slower than the corresponding part of the earth…thus, for an observer believing to be at rest, the wind seems to blow in a direction opposed to the one of the rotation i.e. from east to west: indeed, it is the direction of the trade winds.” p.s. laplace, “recherches sur plusieurs points du système du monde,” oeuvres complètes 9 (paris, 1893), 69183, 187-310. 14 john dalton, meteorological observations and essays, 2nd ed. (manchester: harrison and crosfield, 1834), 85, quoted in n. shaw, manual of meteorology 1 (cambridge: cambridge univ. press, 1926), 123 and 289-90. dalton also provides a reference, perhaps to j.a. de luc’s lettres physiques… 5 (paris, 1779-80), let. cxiv. see also davis, “deflective effect of the earth's rotation.” 15 h.w. dove, “über den einfluss der drehung der erde auf die strömungen ihrer atmosphäre,” pogg. ann. phys. chem. 36 (1835): 321-51, transl. “on the influence of the rotation of the earth on the currents of the atmosphere: being outlines of a general theory of winds, phil. mag. 11 (1837): 227-39, 353-63. see j. hann, meteorol. z. 1883, 18 176-77 and c. abbe, mechanics of the earth's atmosphere. w.m. davis, “an early statement of the deflective effect of the earth's rotation,” science 1, no. 4 (1883): 98. 16 p. costabel, “coriolis, gaspard gustave de,” dictionary of scientific biography 3 (new york: scribner’s, 1961), 416-19; g.g. coriolis, “mémoire sur le principe des forces vives dans les mouvements relatifs des machines” (on the principle of kinetic energy in the relative movement of machines), j. ecole polytech. 13 (1832): 268-302; i. grattan-guinness, the fontana history of the mathematical sciences (london: fontana, 1997), 330, 449; t.s. kuhn, “energy conservation as an example of simultaneous discovery,” the essential tension: history of meteorology 2 (2005) 21 selected studies in scientific tradition and change (chicago: univ. of chicago press, 1977), 66104. 17 g.g. coriolis, “mémoire sur les équations du mouvement relatif des systèmes de corps,” j. ecole polytech. 15 (1835): 142-54; g.g. coriolis, “mémoire sur les équations du mouvement relatif des systèmes de corps,” compt. rend. 2 (1836): 172-74. see r. dugas history of mechanics, 374-83 and also r. dugas, “sur l’origine du théorème de coriolis,” revue scientifique 5-6 (1941): 267-70. coriolis’ most important papers have recently been republished in france: g.g. coriolis, théorie mathematique des effets du jeu de billard (paris: j. gabay, 1990, 1835). 18 s.d. poisson, “extrait de la première partie d'un mémoire,” compt. rend. 5 (1837): 660-67. s.d. poisson, “sur le mouvement des projectiles dans l'air, en avant égard a la rotation de la terre,” j. ecole polytech. 18 (1838): 1-69, translated by f. waldo and c. abbe, mechanics of the earth's atmosphere,8-15. 19 j. bertrand, “mémoire sur la theorie des mouvements relatifs, compt. rend. 24 (1847): 141-42; j. bertrand, “théorie des mouvements relatifs,” j. ecole polytech. 29 (1848): 149-54. bertrand criticized coriolis, who had died five years earlier, for not acknowledging clairaut’s 1742 work. a widely read textbook later took up bertrand’s argument: e.j. routh, dynamics of a system of rigid bodies 2 (london: macmillan, 1905), 23-24. 20 see j.g. hagen, la rotation de la terre, and w. tobin, the life and science of leon foucault: the man who proved the earth rotates (cambridge: cambridge univ. press, 2003). i am much indebted to professor norman a. phillips for having clarified this common misunderstanding. see n.a. phillips, “ce qui fait tourner le pendule de foucault par rapport aux étoiles,” la météorologie 34 (aug. 2001), 38-44. 21 m. o'brien, “on symbolic forms derived from the conception of the translation of a directed magnitude,” proc. roy. soc. london (1851): 161-206 (coriolis force derivation is on pp. 192-97). ten years later the same derivation was repeated by a. cohen, “on the differential coefficients and determinants of lines, and their application to analytical mechanics,” phil. trans. roy. soc. london 152 (1862): 176-79, 469-510. for a background into o’brien’s and other pioneers of the vector formalism, see n.j. crowe a history of vector analysis (new york: dover, 1967, 1985). for a modern derivation, see a.p. french, newtonian mechanics, the m.i.t. introductory physics series (new york: norton, 1971), 520-24. 22 the idea was first proposed by the siberian scientist slowzow in 1827 (see w. köppen, “die vorherrschenden winde und das baer’sche gesetz der flussbretten,” meteorol. z. 7 (1890): 34-35 and 180-83). k.e. v. baer and bergsträsser, “das seichterwerden der flussmünungen im allgemein und inbesondere der wolgamündung,” astrachaner gouvernments nachrichten (oct. 1856): 149-51. k.e. v. baer, “warum bei underen flüssen, die nach norden oder süden fliessen das rechte ufter steil unde das linke flach ist,” marienearchives (1857): 110126; k.e. v. baer, “über ein allgemeines gesetz in der gestaltung von flussbetten,” bull. acad. imp. d. sci. st. pétersbourg 2 (1860): 1-49, 218-250, 353-382 and the same in kaspische stud. 7 (1860): 1-6. e. dunker, “über den einfluss der rotation der erde auf den lauf des flüsse,” z. gesammter naturwiss, n.f.11 (1875). in 1926 albert einstein entered the debate and explained the meandering as a consequence of an induced secondary circulation perpendicular to the flow of the river. a. einstein, “die ursache der mäanderbildung der flußläufe und des sogennanten baerschen coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 22 gestezes,” die natur-wissenschaften 11 (1926): 223-24. it is not clear if einstein had a clear grasp of the coriolis effect. one who obviously had not was einstein’s friend and nobel prize lauredate max born. see j. tessmann, “coriolis and consolation, amer. j. phys. 56 (1987): 382. j.a. van der akker, “coriolis and consolation,” amer. j. phys. 56 (1987): 1063. a. einstein, the born-einstein letters, correspondence between albert einstein and max and hedwig born from 1916 to 1955 (new york: walker, 1971), 141-43. 23 to a modern reader this sounds like the “ekman effect.” 24 a. perrot, “nouvelle expérience pour rendre manifeste le mouvement de rotation de la terre,” compt. rend. 49 (1859): 637-38. j. babinet, “influence du mouvement de rotation de la terre sur le cours des rivières,” compt. rend. 49 (1859): 638-41. j. bertrand, “note relative à l’influence de la rotation de la terre sur la direction des cours d'eau,” compt rend. 49 (1859): 658-59; réponse de m. babinet, 659; j. bertrand, “second note sur l’influence du mouvement de la terre, compt. rend. 49 (1859): 685-86; j. babinet, j., 1859: “sur le deplacement vers le nord ou vers le sud d'un mobile qui se meut librement dans une direction perpendiculaire au meridien, compt. rend. 49 (1859): 686-88. the total centrifugal force c for an object moving eastward with speed u, babinet calculated to be c= ( r + u) = 2r + u, instead of the correct c=( r+u)2/r= 2r+2 u+u2/r; c. delaunay, “remarques concernant la question de l'influence de la rotation de la terre sur la direction des courants d'eau,” compt. rend. 49 (1859): 688-92. j. babinet, “démonstration de la loi de m. foucault sur la tendance transversale d’un point, qui se déplace à la surface de la terre. evaluation de la force qui produit dans les rivières la tendance à l’érosion des rives,” compt. rend. 49 (1859): 769-75. c. combes, “observations au sujet de la communication de m. perrot et la note de m. babinet,” compt. rend. 49 (1859): 775-80. even after babinet’s analysis, which von baer was aware of, he held on to his conviction that only rivers flowing in the north-south direction would be affected. 25 n. braschmann, “sur l’expèrience de m. perrot,” bull. acad. imp. d. sci. st. pétersbourg (1860): 571 and n. braschmann, “note concernant la pression des wagons sur les rails droits et des courants d’eau sur la rive droite du mouvement en vertu de la rotation de la terre,” compt. rend. 53 (1861): 1068 ff and in cosmos 19, 661. a. erman, “the influence of the diurnal rotation of the earth on constrained horizontal motions, either uniform or variable,” arch. f. wissenschaftliche kunde v. russland 21 (1862): 52-96, 325-32, transl. c. abbe, mechanics of the earth's atmosphere. 26 w. ferrel, “an essay on winds and the currents of the ocean,” nashville j. med. surg. 11, nos. 4 and 5 (1856): 287-30. his mathematical expressions of the fictitious forces include strangely the radius of the earth; w. ferrel, w., 1858: “the influence of the earth’s rotation upon the relative motion of bodies near its surface,” astro. j. 5 (1858): 97-100, 111-114; w. ferrel, “the motions of fluids and solids relative to the earth's surface,” math. monthly 1 (1859): 14048, 210-16, 300-07, 366-73, 379-406, 2 (1859-60): 89-97, 339-46, 374-90; w. ferrel, the motions of fluids and solids relative to the earth's surface, comprising applications to the winds and the currents of the ocean (london and new york, 1860), 72 p.; w. ferrel, “the motions of fluids and solids relative to the earth's surface,” amer. j. sci. 31 (1861): 27-51, reprinted in professional papers of the signal service 12 (1882): 21-34. see g. kutzbach, the thermal theory of cyclones (boston: amer. meteorol. soc., 1979), 38-39, fn. 61. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 23 27 a. mühry, über die theorie und das allgemeine geographische system der winde (göttingen, 1869). mühry’s necrology is in meteorol. z. 5 (1888): 410-12. there are also references to an early derivation of the coriolis effect by z.b. buff, “einfluss der umdrehung der erde um ihre axe auf irdische bewegungen,” ann. der chemie und pharmacie 4, suppl. (1865, 1866): 207ff. 28 c.m. guldberg and h. mohn, études sur les mouvements de l'atmosphère 2 vols. (christiana, 1876, 1880), reprinted in norwegian classical meteorological papers prior to the bergen school (oslo, norway: universitetsforlaget, 1966), coriolis on 30-33. c.m. guldberg and h. mohn, “über die gleichförmige bewegung der horizontale luftströme,” öst. meteorol. z. 12 (1877): 49-60, 177ff, 257ff, 273ff; j. finger, “über den einfluss der erdrotation auf die parallel zur sphäroidalen erdoberfläche in beliebigen bahnen vor sich gehenden bewegungen, inbesondere auf die strömungen der flüsse und winde,” sitzungsb. d. kais. akad. wiss. wiener akad. 76 (1877): 67-103; c. benoni, “det einfluss der achsendrehung der erde auf das geographische windsystem,” petermanns geograph. mitteil. 23 (1877): 93-106. see kutzbach, thermal theory of cyclones for biographies of sprung, köppen, v. neumayer, hann and others. 29 a. sprung, a. 1879: “studien über den wind und seine beziehungen zum luftdruck zur mechanik der luftbewegungen,” archiv der deutschen seewarte 2 (1879): 1-27, anhang “über das hadleysche prinzip.” a. sprung, “die trägheitscurve auf rotierender oberflächen als ein hilfsmittel beim studium der luftbewegungen,” öst. meteorol. z. 15 (1880): 1-16. 30 f.j.w. whipple, “the motion of a particle on the surface of a smooth rotating globe,” phil. mag. 33 (1917): 457-71; n. paldor and p.d. killworth, “inertial trajectories on a rotating earth,” j. atmos. sci. 45 (1988): 4013-19. see also w.s. von arx, an introduction to physical oceanography (reading, mass.: addison-wesley, 1962), 101-02 and g.j. haltiner and f.l. martin, dynamical and physical meteorology (new york: mcgraw-hill, 1957), 181. 31 p.t. bush, d.j. digiambattista, and d.a. coats, “coriolis deflection on the rotating platform,” amer. j. phys. 44 (1976): 883-85; h.a. daw, “coriolis lecture demonstration,” amer. j. phys. 55 (1987): 1010-14, fig.3 and discussion on p. 1012; d.t. durran, d.r., 1996: “an apparatus for demonstrating the inertial oscillation,” bull amer. meteorol. soc. 77 (1996): 55759; a.a. klebba and h. stommel, “a simple demonstration of coriolis force,” amer. j. phys. 19 (1951): 247. 32 l. euler, “recherches sur le mouvement des corps célestes en général,” histoire de l’academie royal des sciences et belles lettres, (1749): 93-143, see p. 106. after euler had derived the coriolis acceleration in angular variables he is said to have tried the same in cartesian coordinates but made an error and only got half of the right answer. see truesdell, essays in the history of mechanics. both french, newtonian mechanics, 557-60 and d. acheson, from calculus to chaos, an introduction to dynamics (oxford: oxford univ. press, 1997, 2003), 74-77 present the derivation of the coriolis acceleration with references to newton. 33 m. thiesen, “über bewegungen auf der erdoberfläche,” öst. meteorol. z. 14 (1879): 203-06; m. thiesen, [review of ferrel, 1877 and finger, 1877], öst. meteorol. z. 14 (1879): 386-91; a. sprung, “zur theorie der oberen luftströmungen,” öst. meteorol. z. 15 (1880): 1721 and ann. d. hydr. u. maritime meteorol. 8 (1880): 603; m. thiesen, “über bewegungen auf der erdoberfläche,” öst. meteorol. z. 15 (1880): 88-89; a. sprung, lehrbuch der meteorologie (hamburg: hoffmann und campe, 1885). coriolis effect — four centuries of conflict 24 34 a direct application of coriolis’ 1835 paper came during the 1960s. the americans and russians had plans to build a rotating space wheel with the intention to create an artificial gravity through the rotation. the plans were abandoned when it was realized that the rotation necessary to create an artificial gravity close to 9.81 m/s2 would create coriolis forces thousand of times stronger than on earth. the crew would suffer from physiologically or psychologically uncomfortable coriolis effects, machinery with moving or rotating parts like centrifuges and washing machines might break down. 35 the american-hungarian physicist lanzos commented in 1949 that his students knew every detail in an atom-smashing machine, but still were ignorant about the difference between heavy and inertial mass. r.j. whitaker, ”aristotle is not dead: student understanding of trajectory motion,” amer. j. phys. 51 (1983): 352-57. j. lythcott, j., 1985: “’aristotelian’ was given as the answer, but what was the question?,” amer. j. phys. 53 (1985): 428-32. mccomb’s dynamics and relativity shows on p. 145, in conflict with the author’s own mathematical derivations a few pages earlier, but in full agreement with aristotle, that falling bodies are deflected to the west. hom6_01_bjerknes_half_a_century   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    1       1                   half a century of change in the “meteorological scene” j. bjerknes university of california, los angeles bulletin of the american meteorological society 45 (1964): 312–315. ©american meteorological society. reprinted with permission. the "meteorological scene" at the beginning of our century had separate centers of activity, largely out of touch with each other. there was no world-wide communication system for weather data, and daily weather maps were of more local extent than today. the weather forecasting in each area was troubled by the lack of early information about travelling disturbances from the west. it did not help the european weather forecasters, for instance, that transatlantic cablegrams could bring a daily summary of the north american weather. that had been tried in the early years of the cable connection, but then again abandoned. the atlantic gap had proved too wide to be bridged by interpolation on the weather maps, and radio messages from ships could not yet be contemplated. upper-air observations were in their first stage of development and exerted no influence on the routine of daily forecasting. manned balloon flights were a popular public spectacle; and the measurement of the close-to-moist-adiabatic rate of decrease of temperature with height was an important scientific by-product of such flights. unmanned balloon flights with self-recording instruments had penetrated still higher than the manned ones, and had discovered the stratosphere. the people on the "scene of theoretical meteorology” were becoming aware of the interesting three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere, and began to look for tools from the science of hydrodynamics that could put weather forecasting on a scientific foundation. the old german genius of natural science, von helmholtz, had already two decades before 1900 made the first important steps with his theorems of circulation of incompressible media; and my father, vilhelm bjerknes, had followed up at the turn of the century by extending helmholtz' theorems to compressible media (like air) on a rotating planet.   bjerknes,  half  a  century  of  change    2     2   my first childhood memories date from this period. the tapping of the typewriter in my father's study was heard year in and year out. but then also, during summer vacations in the country, a different activity took place. impressive kites, far greater than the toy ones, were launched, carrying recording instruments. my role was of course only to watch while grow-up students operated the kites; and the purpose of the whole thing was far beyond my comprehension. as i later learned, the kite ascents were made to extend aerological knowledge northwards from central europe, where many balloon ascents had taken place, to the virtually unexplored scandinavia. in technical terms, the ascents were made to count the isobaric-isosteric solenoids in a meridional profile. the new circulation theorems ca1led for such fieldwork, but i must add, as most of you know, that my father's tinkering with kite technology never caused the sensation on the meteorological scene as did the circulation theorem itself. i would like to mention a few other personalities on the “meteorological scene” in the first part of our century, and i hope you will excuse my bias in choosing these people all from scandinavia, the only part of the world that i could observe at that time. v.w. ekman one of my father's students developed theorems of his own, which have found their way to all standard textbooks and forever will continue to be useful. that was w.v. ekman, an applied mathematician who invented what all the world still calls the "ekman spiral.” it is a symbol for the explanation given by ekman of how friction at a boundary surface modifies the circulations derived by classical hydrodynamics for frictionless media. one of the most important applications of the ekman spiral is that of showing the mechanism of the maintenance of the ocean currents by wind drag at the ocean surface. ekman later got his appointment as a professor at the small provincial swedish university of lund, and remained there for the rest of his life. from his "ivory tower" came a succession of fine research contributions, which built the theoretical structure from which modern oceanography got many of its present tools. as an example of the esteem of younger oceanographers for their lonely and modest senior colleague, i may mention that the young and dynamic worker, in oceanography as well as in meteorology, c.-g. rossby, repeatedly confided to me that he had often, and very seriously, thought of abandoning all his empire building in america in order to go back to a small job under ekman in the provincial university in the old country. arctic explorers then, let me mention a few arctic explorers. they also belong in a description of the meteorological scene. some were scholars in their own right, and all of them went to their adventures more or less with the moral backing of the profession of meteorology, that wanted to see also the geographical frontiers of knowledge advanced. before the turn of the century the swedish explorer otto nordenskjöld had pioneered the navigation by ship from europe to the bering strait north of siberia; and the norwegian fridtjof nansen had been the first to cross the greenland icecap; and several years afterwards had his ruggedly constructed ship “fram” cross the arctic ocean following the ice drift with the transarctic ocean current, whose existence he had postulated. these were glamorous world events in geographical exploration, and they had pushed the frontiers of   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    3       3   meteorological and oceanographic exploration further polewards. but more remained to be done! quite naturally, the manned balloon came into the picture as the vehicle that could travel faster than the ship, bring more uncharted territory under observation, and also make a beginning in exploring the aerology of the arctic. the swedish balloonist s.a. andrée and two young meteorologist companions pioneered that idea, and got the necessary financial support for a balloon flight from spitzbergen at 80°n toward the pole and beyond. the risk of failure of such a flight was great, but not really forbidding. a balloon can stay aloft long provided it does not lose gas by the periodic thermal expansion and contraction between day and night. the arctic summer does not have nights, and the balloon was expected to be able to fly there in almost constant temperature for a long time. then also, the balloon would stay aloft long enough to be carried by the winds to some inhabited area outside the arctic. such was the plan, but it failed; and the balloon with its courageous crew did never return from the arctic. it took thirty years for the mystery to be cleared up. an expedition of norwegian geological surveyors in 1930 explored some uninhabited, and seldom visited, islands east of spitzbergen,—islands that can only be reached by ship in summers of minimum volume of arctic pack ice. there they found an old campsite with the remnants of the andrée expedition. the diary and the meteorological log were found in good readable shape, so that the following thirty-year-old happenings could be reconstructed: all had gone well to begin with, and the balloon had travelled at low altitude about one-third the distance to the north pole, when the wind dropped to a light breeze of variable direction. during that period the rope, that was being dragged behind the balloon to afford some amount or steering, got stuck around the corner of an ice hummock, whereafter the balloon remained helplessly moored to the ice. after a period of desperate waiting the balloonists had to release gas, and land. the tour back on foot across the rough ice and in a raft across open lanes, was a terrible struggle, and it ended at the uninhabited island from which no further southward push was possible. this was only one of the many tragic losses of young arctic explorers volunteering to take great personal risks in the service of science. i only mention the andrée tragedy because it was very much part of my childhood scene. one of the balloonists was my father's student in stockholm, sweden. today, as we all know, flying has conquered the arctic. regular long distance passenger flights connect europe with alaska and the far east by way of the north pole; and meteorological and oceanographic observing platforms with comfortable living quarters are maintained on drifting arctic ice floes. the air freight logistics for such scientific activity is not entirely free of risk, but the risk factor is what we in modern thinking call "acceptable"; and, certainly, it is several orders of magnitude safer than the andrée arctic balloon flight. space exploration today the glamorous, and risky, frontier of exploration is space; and again young enthusiasts volunteer for it. "space" is outside the atmosphere, and space science is not   bjerknes,  half  a  century  of  change    4     4   meteorology. but we as meteorologists are not quite free of responsibility for the space billions this country is spending. i am referring to the disturbing fact that many public statements, delivered in favor of the immense appropriations for the conquest of space, offer the promise of what may look like commensurate future benefits to mankind to be delivered by the science of meteorology. the statements seem to take for granted that large scale weather modification, made to order to enrich mankind, will automatically follow from the mastery of space. i think it is our duty to society to tell that we as meteorologists do not believe in such dreams. even the public statements which omit the weather modification angle, and only promise the more limited benefits from and improved space-supported weather forecasting, usually go too far. a frequently heard theme is: when we get space platforms the problems of weather forecasting on earth will be trivial and easy to solve. such promises should also be emphatically contested. space platforms, even manned ones, we shall probably get in a not too distant future. but faultless weather forecasting will not follow. and meteorologists will then be blamed for not being able to perform the ''trivial" job of turning the information from a space platform into perfect short and longrange weather forecasts. now, don't misunderstand me as being entirely anti-space. i am not. tiros satellites were marvelous eye-openers for synoptic meteorologists myself included; and our world-monopoly on these wonderful gadgets is a source of world prestige of which we can be justifiably proud. but let us not lose our balanced view of what scientific weather forecasting really is: l) a quick compilation of data on the present state of the global atmosphere, and 2) a quick prediction of the change of that state by timeintegration of our dynamic equations. ultraviolet, visual, and infrared observations from a space platform would help to some extent under heading (1), but hardly at all under heading (2). even in the job of compiling the present three-dimensional state of the atmosphere i would not trade our reporting weather ships against satellites on a dollar for dollar basis. to reap the benefits from modern numerical forecasting we do need weather ships, and more of them, particularly in the pacific ocean. satellites do not make weather ships superfluous. what should we recommend our bright young students to do with their careers on the present "meteorological scene"? i would exclude the glamorous trip to the moon, and even that to mars. our meteorology on earth is infinitely more important for mankind, and we need all the bright young people right here. there is plenty of choice of subjects. on the meteorological scene of today we are "teaching more and more about less and less''; meaning that more and more fields of narrow specialization, too numerous to be mentioned here, are available for choice. modern society calls for all that differentiation, and i hesitantly admit that most of that diversification is inevitable. weather forecasting but yet i would give highest recommendation to the less narrow and more basic field of meteorology, which was the concern of the founders of our science, and which still is our first duty to society: weather forecasting. all too frequently, students, and professors too, shy away from the subject of weather forecasting and go into one of the   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    5       5   nice little research specialties which are less nerve racking, and which do not force you to show the public how often you are wrong. but, fortunately, the weather forecaster will soon be better off. electronic automation has already relieved him of much of the overwhelming load of data handling, and now also presents him with electronically computed forecast maps. true enough, these forecast maps are not infallible, because they apply strictly only to a "model atmosphere" which is a simplified version of the real atmosphere. but the computed forecast maps do have the great merit of being consistent with the teaching of the science of fluid media. and, with that sound foundation, improvements are bound to come to the still very young science of numerical weather forecasting. oceanographic-meteorological research since the ams has given me this unique opportunity of addressing a large and representative professional audience, i cannot resist the temptation to wind up with a plug for the combined oceanographic-meteorological research, to which i am devoting my last active years. it is quite logical to enter that field if you want to understand the changes of weather over longer range; in other words: the “climatic change.” the period of adequate marine observations for such studies extends about 80 years. in the national weather record center, in asheville, n.c., 33 million ship observations are now stored, and the stockpile rapidly grows from year to year. individual researchers of course cannot cope with the gigantic job of extracting all the useful information from that many millions of observations, and the science of oceanatmosphere interactions has therefore largely stagnated after a brief blossoming period in the early part of our century. but on the modern meteorological scene the fast electronic processing can salvage the stored treasures of information, and soon will do so, if the latest nationwide plans for the research on air-sea interaction get implemented. fortunately, the past 80 years have also seen a good deal of measurable climatic change, so that much can be learned from a study of that important period. the geographical models of climatic anomalies found to apply for the recent past will also help us to evaluate the many different theories put forth for the more distant past, in particular those of the ice ages. h.u. sverdrup we can enter this type of research armed with the knowledge contained in the theorems of circulation of atmosphere and ocean handed down to us from the primitive meteorological scene of half-a-century ago. but it is fitting and timely at this occasion also to remember how much was later added in the way of important tools for oceanatmosphere research by the late harald ulrik sverdrup, whom we are honoring today. dr. sverdrup came from the same theoretical school as did his senior swedish colleague in oceanography v.w. ekman, but sverdrup’s career unfolded more on the international plane, first as a norwegian arctic explorer, then as a u.s. citizen in the directorship of the scripps institution of oceanography, and finally back to international work in the old country. among his many fine research contributions we here only mention one of his last, from 1947, which, by an ingenious combination of the circulation theorem and ekman's theory of wind drift, gave us the simple rules for long-range   bjerknes,  half  a  century  of  change    6     6   adjustment of' ocean currents dictated by primary meteorological change. the resulting, usually minor, adjustment in ocean currents has, in turn, a perceptible feedback effect on the atmospheric circulation, whereby the play of climatic change, in atmosphere and oceans, continues through decades, centuries, and millennia. it will obviously take a long time to get a firm hold on the theory of current climatic changes through verification testing by observations. but it seems to be a safe prediction that the ams, when reviewing the state of knowledge on the processes of climatic change some time in the 21st century, will feel proud that in 1964 the name of harald ulrik sverdrup was immortalized also by the institution of an ams gold medal. fig. 1.1. j. bjerknes speaking at ams in 1964 inaugurating the sverdrup gold medal. microsoft word 00frontmatter.doc history of meteorology volume 2, 2005 james r. fleming, editor with a special section on diversity in the global reconstruction and representation of weather and climate: east, south, west, north selected papers from the ichm symposium at the international congress of history of science, beijing, china, july 2005 edited by louis k. mcnally iii and christian rohr history of meteorology is the peer-reviewed journal of the ichm © ichm 2005 issn 1555-5763 proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology ii contents pages introduction, call for papers, and style guide i-v anders persson (sweden), the coriolis effect: four centuries of conflict between common sense and mathematics, part i: a history to 1885 1-24 youngsin chun and sang-woon jeon, (republic of korea), chugugi, supyo, and punggi: meteorological instruments of the 15 th century in korea 25-36 special section: diversity in the global reconstruction and representation of weather and climate: east, south, west, north selected papers from the ichm symposium at the international congress of history of science, beijing, china, july 2005 edited by louis k. mcnally iii and christian rohr symposium editors’ introduction 37-40 ioannis telelis (greece), historical-climatological information from the time of the byzantine empire (4th-15th centuries ad) 41-50 adriaan m.j. de kraker (the netherlands), reconstruction of storm frequency in the north sea area during the pre-industrial period, 1400 to 1700 and the connection with reconstructed time series of temperatures 51-69 christian rohr (austria), the danube floods and their human response and perception (14th to 17th c) 71-86 jian liu (china), hans von storch (germany), eduardo zorita (germany), xing chen (china), and sumin wang (china), “simulated and reconstructed temperature in china since 1550 ad 87-104 louis k. mcnally iii (usa), reconstruction of late-18th century upper-air circulation using forensic synoptic analysis” 105-122 cornelia lüdecke (germany), east meets west: meteorological interests of the moravians in greenland and labrador since the 18th century 123-132 dennis wheeler (uk), british naval logbooks from the late seventeenth century: new climatic information from old sources 133-145 nikola koepke and joerg baten (germany), climate and its impact on the biological standard of living in northeast, centre-west, and south europe during the last 2000 years 147-159 history of meteorology 2 (2005) iii introduction the second volume of history of meteorology comes with a name change and incorporates the first issue, published in 2004 under the more pedestrian title, proceedings of the ichm. a new issn assigned by the u.s. library of congress appears on the masthead. since we seek to reach both historians and scientists interested in history, i am happy to report that the journal is being indexed and abstracted by both isis current bibliography of the history of science (from which citations are posted online on the rlg history of science and technology database) and meteorological and geoastrophysical abstracts. both are the best at what they do. i hope this might help encourage you to consider publishing in history of meteorology in the future. ten articles appear in this issue, including a selection of papers presented at the ichm symposium at the international congress of history of science in beijing in 2005. the authors represent a wide variety of disciplines and nine different nations. this fulfills another goal of the ichm—to seek global and international perspectives. anders persson has given us a history of misunderstandings of the coriolis effect to 1885, tracing his subject back to newton and indicating that since then confusion still reigns. youngsin chun and sang-woon jeon have provided important insights into 15 th -century meteorological instruments in korea, the chugugi, supyo, and punggi, or rain gauge, watermark, and anemoscope—deemed national treasures and world-class scientific inventions. louis k. mcnally iii and christian rohr served as guest editors for a special section of eight papers from the ichm symposium on “diversity in the global reconstruction and representation of weather and climate: east, south, west, north,” held in beijing, china. this symposium investigated the interaction of the history of meteorology, broadly defined, with attempts to reconstruct past weather and climate events around the world, emphasizing contemporary social representations and assessments of social vulnerability. i refer you to this section of the journal for additional details. at the conclusion of my term as president of the ichm, i would like to thank the outgoing officers for their diligent service as we “invented” the commission: cornelia lüdecke, vice-president; jinny nathans, treasurer; kristine harper, secretary; and roy goodman, council member. i also offer my best wishes to the new officers: cornelia lüdecke, president; vladimir jankovic, vice-president; and doria grimes, secretary-treasurer. the commission is in good hands, and it needs the inspiration and support of its current 238 members from 45 nations. the web site of the ichm contains announcements, a directory of members, a list of goals, the bylaws, an on-line membership form, an archive, and a growing list of links. i invite you to browse http://www.meteohistory.org and consider joining us in pursuit of “scholarship and friendship” in the history of meteorology, climatology, and related sciences. james r. fleming washington, dc iv history of meteorology call for papers papers on the history of meteorology, climatology, and related sciences are now being accepted for consideration in history of meteorology 3 (2006). articles should be based on original research and present a novel thesis. they must be engaging, clearly written, and fully documented, following the style guide below. all papers will be subject to peer review. authors are reminded that international and interdisciplinary perspectives are encouraged and articles should engage social, cultural, and/or intellectual themes and contexts. because this is an electronic journal, it is possible to publish color illustrations and experiment with alternative media such as audio and video files and databases. session conveners are invited to propose special sections or issues of the journal. history of meteorology has a stable url at http://meteohistory.org and has been assigned issn 1555-5763 by the u.s. library of congress. it is currently being indexed by two leading services: isis current bibliography of the history of science (from which citations are posted online on the rlg history of science and technology database) and meteorological and geoastrophysical abstracts. the deadline for submissions for volume three is 1 september 2006, but earlier notice is appreciated. queries or manuscripts should be directed to the editor, james r. fleming, e-mail jfleming@colby.edu history of meteorology 2 (2005) v style guide manuscripts for history of meteorology are to be submitted electronically to the editor in ms word format (ask in advance about other formats). before publication, authors must certify that their work is original and that all necessary permissions have been acquired. format paper size: u.s. letter margins: 1.0 inch on all sides headers and footers: 0.5 inch (left blank except for preliminary pagination) line spacing: double font: text: 12 point times new roman; captions: 11 point times new roman section headers: use of bold section headers is encouraged paper length: less than 10,000 words, including citations. ask if your manuscript is longer than this. figures and tables figures must be provided as separate image files (jpeg or tiff) with a resolution of at least 150 dpi. both figures and tables must be mentioned in the text (e.g. fig. 1) before their appearance in the paper. figure captions appear below the figure in 11-point type with a hanging indent: fig. 1. caption descriptive of the image but does not repeating what was said in the text of the paper. image courtesy of (or by permission of) xxx. tables must be carefully formatted in advance by the author. titles appear above the table in 11point type: table 1. title of table (handing indent if it is a long title). citations citations may be either endnotes, numbered sequentially, or references (author date) listed alphabetically at the end of the paper. any major style, consistently applied, is acceptable. each citation must provide name of author/editor, full title of the work, place, publisher, date, and page references. titles of books and journals are italicized, not underlined. archival and manuscript material must contain a full description in the first citation. use of abbreviations (e.g. amer. j. sci.) is encouraged, as is the short reference format for subsequent citations of a text (e.g. petterssen, weather forecasting, 12.). endnotes are not meant to be discursive. microsoft word 05willis&hooke.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 5. cleveland abbe and the birth of the national weather service, 1870-1891 edmund p. willis kinsale research alexandria, virginia, usa and william h. hooke american meteorological society washington, dc, usa cleveland abbe (1838-1916) made substantial scientific and administrative contributions to nascent national weather services during their first twenty years under the aegis of the u.s. army signal corps. prior studies of the signal service, however, give short shrift to abbe’s work. in particular most accounts barely mention abbe’s scientific endeavors during the initial decade, 1871-1880.1 this paper examines three aspects of abbe’s career: (a) his background; (b) the science he initiated; and (c) his administrative accomplishments. two conclusions emerge: first, abbe initiated significant, broad-based scientific research, beginning in the 1870s; and second, abbe’s scientific contributions deserve recognition for their part in the evolution of 19th century meteorology. abbe shared the background and many of the characteristics of american scientists in the 19th century. his father, george w. abbe, was a new york merchant of new england ancestry. his parents raised him in the baptist tradition of service and respect for others. he took his undergraduate degree in 1857 from the free academy, forerunner of the city college of new york, where he demonstrated an interest in meteorology. he went on to study astronomy in 1859 at the university of michigan, and began work with the u. s. coast survey in 1860 at its office in cambridge, massachusetts. there he acquired a desire for graduate study abroad. having read piazzi smyth’s book, three cities in russia (1862), he bypassed german universities (the more usual destination for american scholars) in favor of russia. there he served as proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 49 supernumerary astronomer at the nicholas central observatory in pulkovo, near st. petersburg, from 1865-67.2 otto struve, the observatory’s director, set him to work reanalyzing james bradley’s 18th century stellar observations.3 after two years at pulkovo, abbe returned home and took a job with the naval observatory in washington, dc. on the voyage across the atlantic, speaking with another passenger, he voiced his ambition to head an observatory. a report of this chance conversation found its way to the cincinnati astronomical society then seeking a director for its observatory. the association sought out abbe and hired him to begin work in 1868.4 abbe found the cincinnati observatory neglected and in disrepair. he initially proposed an ambitious program of astronomy, meteorology, and study of geomagnetism. the society, however, lacked the financial resources, and so abbe focused on weather forecasting. the cincinnati chamber of commerce agreed to support the effort for three months, beginning september 1, 1869.5 abbe organized a system of volunteer weather observers, and persuaded the western union company to provide free telegraph services. he commenced predictions on schedule, and forecasting actually continued until june, 1870.6 ultimately the astronomical society could not fund the operation at a level satisfactory to abbe, and so he returned to new york city in 1870.7 at about that time a movement commenced to create a national weather service. increase lapham of milwaukee, as early as 1848, had observed growing storm damage to vessels and loss of seamen on the great lakes.8 in 1869 he petitioned the federal government to provide a storm warning system for the lakes. his congressman, halbert g. paine, expanded the proposal to include the entire nation. paine’s bill reached congress in december, 1869 and passed in february, 1870.9 coincidentally, with declining military budgets, colonel albert myer, the army’s chief signal officer (cso) sought a peacetime mission. he pleaded with paine to head the new service, offering experienced leadership and a disciplined workforce. in 1870 congress made the war department responsible for the storm warning system and myer got his wish.10 colonel myer brought unique qualifications to the task. while studying medicine in the 1840s he worked as a telegrapher. as an army medical officer, serving in texas before the civil war, his duties included reporting local weather conditions to the surgeon general. while there he developed a semaphore signaling system for the army. with the onset of the civil war myer won appointment as chief signal officer in the union army. based on his wartime exploits contemporaries knew myer as an aggressive problem solver with political connections.11 as he set out in 1870 to organize the new weather service, myer consulted leading scientists, but hesitated to hire civilian expertise. he finally took on increase lapham late in 1870 to issue storm warnings for the great lakes. lapham, however, resigned after a few weeks. myer then contacted abbe in new york and hired him in january, 1871 as professor and chief meteorologist.12 myer and abbe set up headquarters in washington, dc. abbe organized the forecasting process, and published the first “indications” or “probabilities” on february 19, 1871. he trained army lieutenants to continue the predictions, and provided a verification procedure. he selected equipment, and began reducing barometric readings to sea level equivalents.13 as the system developed numerous questions arose, within the headquarters staff, from the field observers, and from the general public. abbe grappled with these questions both practical and theoretical in his office, known as the study room.14 from these issues sprang a program of basic and applied science. cleveland abbe and the birth of the national weather service 50 the annual reports of the chief signal officer provide a window into signal service science accomplished under abbe’s direction. these reports cite some 77 separate investigations conducted in the period 1871-1880. no report cites fewer than four such studies, with ten or more studies in three of the years.15 the varied scientific investigations and initiatives ranged broadly over the meteorological spectrum, and fall into nine major categories. some of the earlier work established or utilized baselines and climatologies, e.g., elevations of observation stations,16 meteorological variations at different elevations on mount washington,17 the height and range of tides at important ports,18 and charts of average barometric pressure, rain areas, and prevailing winds.19 abbe and his team from the very beginning sought the most advanced instrumentation, e.g., balloon-borne sensors,20 self-recording instruments,21 and instruments that recorded remotely.22 they undertook case studies of severe weather, along lines established by james espy and others earlier in the century,23 e.g., abbe’s study in 1873 of two severe coastal storms, using ships’ logs,24 and sgt. theodore smith’s report on the storm of april 14-18, 1873.25 the several acts of congress establishing and expanding weather services specifically mentioned support of agriculture and commerce in addition to public safety.26 accordingly, the signal service conducted economic studies, such as lapham’s reports on shipping disasters,27 the 1875 study of temperatures that would freeze canals and halt commerce,28 and the 1877 study of high and low river levels and their relation to navigability.29 similarly they did ecological studies, such as the 1877 cooperative study with the interior department on locust swarms,30 and studies of water temperatures for use in fisheries management.31 other papers addressed geomagnetic activity, e.g., abbe’s 1873 compilation of auroral observations,32 and his case study of the auroral display of april 7, 1874.33 in 1873 he instituted direct support of the public and the scientific community by publishing the monthly weather review. he brought out the bulletin of international simultaneous observations two years later.34 finally, abbe addressed other fields, such as his paper in 1875 on seismic observations,35 and his report on the 1878 solar eclipse.36 indeed the cso’s reports during the 1870s attribute some 20 scientific endeavors to abbe by name.37 beginning in 1881, myer’s successor, brig. gen. william b. hazen, formally instituted the study room, enabling abbe to recruit distinguished scientists such as william ferrel and thomas mendenhall. thereafter the cso reported a swelling number of scientific studies. the annual reports, however, clearly indicate that scientific projects began in earnest under general myer in the 1870s. as a science administrator abbe trained field observers (army enlisted men) and the forecasting staff (army junior officers). he selected the textbooks and lectured. abbe initially supervised the indications department, where he and the army officers took turns on a monthly rotation, issuing weather forecasts. he saw to the selection, procurement, calibration, and development of instrumentation for use by the observers. he established a records system that accumulated mountains of meteorological and climatological data, from the united states, canada, the caribbean, and europe, and sought to make these available to other scientists. from the start abbe built a professional library to support the scientific work. by 1872 the shelves contained 1,340 volumes, and by 1887 the collection had grown to 9,845.38 abbe also compiled an extensive bibliography on meteorology, aiming to include every title since the beginning of printing. by 1887 he had almost 55,000 entries. the cso considered the proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 51 bibliography so important that, lacking a specific appropriation for it, he had it distributed in typescript.39 in addition to the two weather journals, the signal service published thousands of weather maps and bulletins,40 including the first global weather map that abbe put together in 1872.41 in addition, he wrote some 40 articles in the 1870s, and another 64 papers in the 1880s.42 he urged universities to offer courses in meteorology for which he designed curricula. he translated numerous foreign meteorological articles and disseminated them to american scientists. he carried on a voluminous correspondence with foreign meteorologists. also during this period, abbe demonstrated his appetite for science administration in another arena: the development and adoption of standard time. although abbe ran into political difficulties in attaining the goal, he designed the basic time system and laid out the path ultimately used to reach the necessary national and international agreements.43 in summary, cleveland abbe made his mark as a practicing scientist and meteorologist, not as a theoretician. as a visionary entrepreneur he began weather forecasting from cincinnati and attempted there to put meteorology on a commercial basis. the daily forecasts that he initiated from washington have continued uninterrupted to the present. he operated from a global perspective, translating and disseminating foreign weather science, and the two journals he edited and his correspondence reached a worldwide audience. he conceived a wide-ranging program of basic and applied meteorological science. he served as a manager of science, training observers and forecasters, collecting and disseminating data. abbe understood that advancing meteorological sciences and services made unique demands on infrastructure—the network of trained observers and instruments, a centralized facility for analysis, a schedule of predictions, and organized sustained research to improve the whole. working with a succession of chief signal officers, he helped to develop this system, and set national weather policy through establishing organizational and operational precedents. brig. gen. william hazen in 1885 said, “[to abbe] we are indebted for the very existence of the weather bureau”.44 though no scientific phenomenon or theory bears his name, abbe provided the scientific instincts, leadership, and administrative energy that helped shape the era in american meteorology that fleming has termed the period of “government service (1870-1920)”.45 moreover, as the american weather service expanded its reach across the continent, grew in personnel, created a variety of weather products, and amassed its professional collections, abbe and the signal service moved the united states to the center of world meteorology.46 cleveland abbe and the birth of the national weather service 52 endnotes 1 see for example donald r. whitnah, a history of the united states weather bureau, urbana, university of illinois press, 1961, pp. 38-40; paul j. scheips, “albert james myer, founder of the army signal corps: a biographical study”, american university, ph.d. dissertation, 1965; rebecca r. raines, getting the message through: a branch history of the u.s. army signal corps, washington, dc, center of military history, 1996, p. 54. 2 alan h. batten, resolute and undertaking characters: the lives of wilhelm and otto struve, dordrecht, neth.: d. reidel, 1988, p. 105; william j. humphreys, “biographical memoir of cleveland abbe”, national academy of sciences, biographical memoirs, viii (1919), 469508, pp. 469-470, 472; cleveland abbe, “what i remember about my friends and myself”, u.s. library of congress, cleveland abbe papers, container 32, typescript, pp. 48-49. hereafter: abbe papers. 3 truman abbe, professor abbe…and the isobars: the story of cleveland abbe america’s first weatherman, new york, vantage press, 1955, p. 38. 4 ibid., pp. 85-91, 97-98; c. abbe, “what i remember”, abbe papers, pp. 64-65. 5 t. abbe, professor abbe, op. cit., pp. 97-105; james r. fleming, meteorology in america, 1800-1870, baltimore, johns hopkins university press, 1990, pp. 150-151; george mclaughlin, secretary of the cincinnati chamber of commerce to prof. cleveland abbe, july 17, 1869, collections of the cincinnati historical society library, cincinnati, ohio, mssvf 3065. 6 t. abbe, professor abbe, op. cit., pp. 106, 109-116; fleming, meteorology in america, op. cit., p. 152. 7 julius dexter, secretary of the cincinnati observatory board, to abbe, dec. 3 & 15, 1870; william hooper, cincinnati astronomical society, to abbe, dec. 21, 1870, abbe papers, mss, container no. 6. 8 eric r. miller, “the evolution of meteorological institutions in the united states”, monthly weather review, 59 (jan., 1931), 1:1-6, p. 4; miller, “new light on the beginnings of the weather bureau from the papers of increase a. lapham”, monthly weather review, 59 (feb., 1931), 2: 65-70, pp. 65-66. 9 patrick hughes, a century of weather service…1870-1970, new york, gordon and breach, 1970, p. 7; c. abbe, “the meteorological work of the u. s. signal service, 1870 to 1891”, report of the chicago meteorological congress, part ii, extract (1893), 1-53, p. 4; a. hunter dupree, science in the federal government, cambridge, ma, harvard university press, 1957, p. 187; eric r. miller, “tradition versus history in american meteorology”, monthly weather review, 58 (feb., 1930), 65-66, p. 65; miller, “new light” op. cit, pp. 66-67; chief signal officer, annual report of the chief signal officer to the secretary of war, washington, government printing office, 1891, appendix 8, p. 338. 10dupree, science, op. cit., p. 188; fleming, meteorology in america, op. cit., pp. 155156; miller, “tradition versus history”, monthly weather review, op. cit., p. 65; miller, “new light”, monthly weather review, op. cit., p. 68. 11 american national biography (hereafter anb); miller, “new light”, monthly weather review, op. cit., pp. 68-69; scheips, “albert james myer”, op. cit. 12 c. abbe, “meteorological work of the u. s. signal service”, op. cit., p. 8; t. abbe, professor abbe, op. cit., pp. 123-124; raines, signal corps, op. cit., p. 72, note 38; albert j. myer to cleveland abbe, dec. 10 & 27, 1870, abbe papers, container no. 6; clevland abbe to william a. eddy, aug. 21, 1888, abbe papers, container no. 8. 13 c. abbe, “meteorological work of the u. s. signal service”, op. cit., pp. 5-7, 47-49; annual report of the chief signal officer 1871, pp. 3-16, 47-48; mark monmonier, air proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 53 apparent: how meteorologists learned to map, predict, and dramatize weather, chicago, university of chicago press, 1999, pp. 7-8. 14 c. abbe, “meteorological work of the u. s. signal service”, op. cit., pp. 9-11; annual report of the chief signal officer (1871), pp. 12,14; (1872), pp. 86-87; (1879), p. 195; u. s. congress, senate, testimony before the joint commission to consider the present organizations of the signal service, geological survey, coast and geodetic survey, and the hydrographic office of the navy department, with a view to secure greater efficiency and economy of administration… 49th cong., 1st sess., senate, misc. doc. no. 82, washington, government printing office, 1886, pp. 91-92, 248, 302-305. 15abbe’s scientific vision in the 1870s prompted a research program by a handful of researchers, that anticipated the whole research agenda of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration in the late 20th century, occupying some 1,000 scientists. 16 annual report of the chief signal officer (1872), p. 85. 17 ibid. (1872), p. 86. 18 loc. cit. 19 ibid. (1874), p. 89. 20 ibid. (1872), p. 86. 21 ibid. (1872), p. 87. 22 ibid. (1877), p. 136; u. s. congress, senate, testimony before the joint commission, op, cit., p. 249. 23 for a summary of this work see fleming, meteorology in america, op. cit., pp. 23-43. 24 annual report of the chief signal officer (1873), p. 309. 25 loc. cit. 26 c. abbe, “meteorological work of the u. s. signal service”, op. cit., p. 5; chief signal officer, history of the signal service, washington, government printing office, 1884, pp. 4-5; annual report of the chief signal officer (1891), appendix 8, p. 338; fleming, meteorology in america, op. cit., pp. 155-156. 27 annual report of the chief signal officer (1873), p. 309; (1875), p. 108. these reports continued annually after lapham’s death in 1875, see for example annual report of the chief signal officer (1878), p. 169. 28 ibid. (1875), p. 100. 29 ibid. (1877), p. 130. 30 ibid., pp. 132-133. 31 ibid. (1875), p. 100; (1878), p. 166. 32 ibid. (1873), p. 308. 33 ibid. (1875), p. 108. 34 the monthly weather review commenced uninterrupted publication in january, 1873 and remains a preeminent scientific journal. c. abbe, “meteorological work of the u. s. signal service”, op. cit., pp. 23, 26. 35 annual report of the chief signal officer (1875), pp. 108, 374. 36 u.s. army, signal corps, [daily journal], study room, mss (1881-1884), i, pp. 1-2, rarebook collection, noaa library, silver spring, md, usa. 37 annual report of the chief signal officer (1872), pp. 84-85; (1873), pp. 308-309; (1874), p. 88; (1875), pp. 108, 374; (1876), pp. 301-335, 485ff; (1877), pp. 142, 433; (1878), pp. 168-169; (1879), pp. 188, 195. 38 ibid. (1872), p. 87; (1887), p. 41. 39 ibid., pp. 39-40; the bibliography was republished in james r. fleming & roy e. goodman, eds., international bibliography of meteorology, from the beginning of printing to 1889, upland, pa, diane publishing co., 1994. 40 annual report of the chief signal officer (1891), pp. 11-17. cleveland abbe and the birth of the national weather service 54 41 c. abbe, “meteorological work of the u. s. signal service”, op. cit., p. 25. 42 abbe published some 290 papers during his lifetime, and the titles are listed in humphreys, “biographical memoir of cleveland abbe”, op. cit., pp. 489-508. 43 ian r. bartky, selling the true time: nineteenth century timekeeping in america, palo alto, stanford university press, 2000, pp. 101-103, 130-136. 44 u. s. congress, senate, testimony before the joint commission, op, cit., p. 1057. 45 fleming, meteorology in america, op. cit., p. xix. 46 u. s. congress, senate, testimony before the joint commission, op, cit., pp. 247-252; whitnah, weather bureau, op. cit., p. 35. microsoft word 09harper.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 9. the scandinavian tag-team: providers of atmospheric reality to numerical weather prediction efforts in the united states (1948-1955) kristine c. harper history of science program oregon state university corvallis, oregon, usa introduction in late 1945, the distinguished mathematician john von neumann needed a suitably difficult scientific problem amenable to a numerical solution to showcase the capabilities of his proposed computer. although there were numerous candidates from the physical sciences1, von neumann settled on the weather prediction problem. in their brief accounts of the development of numerical weather prediction, william aspray’s john von neumann and the origins of modern computing and frederik nebeker’s calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century give von neumann primary credit for starting and leading the meteorology project at the institute for advanced study. given significantly less credit are carl-gustav rossby, jule charney, and a series of scandinavian meteorologists who significantly influenced the entire project.2 i will argue that the scandinavian “tag-team”, invited by charney and supported by rossby, was not only critical to its ultimate success, but that differences in the cultures of american and scandinavian meteorology made the scandinavians better suited to accomplish the work at hand than their american counterparts. that the scandinavians possessed both practical forecasting skills as well as superb analysis and theoretical knowledge enabled the answering of this question: is the computer predicted representation of the atmosphere a valid one? the beginnings of the meteorology project proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 85 john von neumann’s quest to prove the worth of an electronic computing device needed a sufficiently complex problem to fully exploit its power and be practical enough to attract funding and public attention. by the end of 1945, the navy was interested in funding von neumann’s efforts without restriction.3 world war ii’s war fighting and countermeasures efforts had been heavily based on applied physics. the advantages presented by a computer for problem solving as well as strategic and tactical decision making could not have been lost on navy officials. however, after discussing the issue with vladimir zworykin of the radio corporation of america’s princeton laboratories, the weather prediction problem started to look appealing. von neumann had no meteorology background, but he had worked on hydrodynamical problems. weather prediction was a problem whose solution was potentially useful to everyone. a non-linear mathematical description of a moving ocean of air surrounding a rotating body was ideal because it could only be attacked numerically, not analytically. having met several times with weather bureau personnel, in early february 1946, harry wexler, director of research, encouraged von neumann to present his ideas to carl-gustav rossby.4 rossby, of the university of chicago’s department of meteorology, was probably the most influential academic meteorologist in the united states. a naturalized u.s. citizen from sweden, rossby had spearheaded the training of several thousand military personnel in meteorology during world war ii. a strong proponent of theory-based meteorology, he had many ideas about moving the art of weather prediction into a solid scientific endeavor. von neumann proposed to rossby that the general circulation of the atmosphere be modeled in its most “simplified and schematic form” – a homogeneous rotating earth that allowed for variations in incoming solar radiation by latitude, but assumed that all data were zonal, i.e., longitudinal placement had no effect.5 rossby subsequently met with von neumann and reported the substance of the meeting to francis w. reichelderfer, chief of the weather bureau. von neumann’s interest in the pursuit of basic meteorological problems by reducing the dynamic equations to a computer solvable version was a potentially great asset to the progress of the science. rossby wrote, “to stimulate him further, and to lay the foundation for a computational approach to theoretical meteorology, it would be necessary to organize a small and versatile group of competent theoretical meteorologists to work with professor von neumann”.6 von neumann’s requirement for additional stimulation is debatable. the need for a theoretical foundation to allow for a computational solution to meteorological problems is not. the mathematical approach to meteorology had been weak before the war. the existing hydrodynamical equations had to be simplified to be numerically solvable. the resulting simplification had to produce a realistic representation of the atmosphere. therein lay the primary problem outside of building the new computer: who would create such a simplified mathematical system? rossby created a list of those who might be both available and capable of addressing this problem. he suggested to von neumann that he propose a research project to the navy’s office of research and inventions (later the office of naval research – onr) to be based at ias. due to scandanavian tag-team and nwp 86 discussions with the navy’s lcdr daniel f. rex, he knew the navy would make a renewable annual funding commitment. the project would “examine the foundation of our ideas concerning the general circulation of the atmosphere with the intention of determining the steady state of the general circulation of the atmosphere and its response to arbitrarily applied external influences”. having arranged the contract, he provided von neumann with a complete budget proposal, personnel suggestions and a proposed starting date.7 as von neumann himself later wrote to rossby in 1949, “[you] more than anyone else were responsible for getting theoretical work started at ias under the auspices of the contract with onr”.8 with the addition of technical information on the proposed computer, the contract proposal echoing rossby’s discussion went to the navy. the proposed personnel would be younger meteorologists led by harry wexler and prominent consultants including meteorologists and oceanographers c.-g. rossby, harald sverdrup and jacob bjerknes – all scandinavians.9 with the contract successfully negotiated, the meteorology project became a reality on july 1, 1946. a meeting of some 20 prominent meteorologists in late august established the working assignments. however, for a variety of reasons the personnel did not materialize. after consulting rossby and reichelderfer, von neumann reorganized the project into a smaller group. only two people worked full-time (paul queney of france, and albert cahn, university of chicago) and they left in december. israeli chaim pekeris and new york university’s hans panofsky worked1/3 time and army captain gilbert hunt, a mathematician, participated in some discussions. army-air force lieutenant philip d. thompson took over cahn’s work on the hydrodynamical equations. as 1947 dawned, only one person worked full-time for the meteorology “group” – thompson.10 his meteorology background was due to wartime training at the university of chicago, he was largely self-taught beyond the basics, and he lacked familiarity with the existing literature. however, he did have some very good ideas. jule charney, who had attended the august 1946 meeting in princeton, visited the group in march 1947 just before departing for the university of oslo. writing to rossby, he noted that the meteorological aspect was the “weak sister” of the meteorology project which did not exactly bode well for its success.11 von neumann focused on numerical solutions to the hydrodynamical equations, but of necessity his efforts were divided between the short-handed meteorology group and the computer project itself. since little could be accomplished by the isolated thompson, the project was extremely fortunate that charney was developing ways to numerically treat the dynamic equations of the atmosphere. by the end of 1947, he had found a “filtering” method which would remove “noise” – energy waves that did not contribute to the solution, but which complicated the calculations.12 von neumann was pleased when he found out that charney was interested in the meteorology project. he also inquired as to the availability of arnt eliassen, a norwegian meteorologist who had been collaborating with charney.13 charney, who had been offered a position at ucla by jacob bjerknes,14 accepted von neumann’s offer in part because he was concerned about the project’s proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 87 future if it continued on its existing path. in writing to bjerknes, charney made clear his view, “unless some physical ideas are brought to bear, the project will die out through mathematical sterility”.15 charney also recognized that the addition of physics would not be enough. the meteorology project needed people who knew enough about meteorology to know “when and how to make approximations” that would inevitably be required to reduce the applicable equations to a computer solvable version. to this end charney recommended bringing in arnt eliassen from the norwegian meteorological institute.16 the scandinavian tag-team begins arnt eliassen thus unwittingly became the first in a line of scandinavians to join the project. eliassen possessed the ideal combination of skills: experienced in synoptic and theoretical meteorology, he was also interested in numerical solutions. as charney saw it, the project needed to be combining theoretical work with empirical data. that meant that some members of the group had to have “intimate experience with actual weather processes”.17 eliassen was the only member of the group who met that requirement. charney and eliassen arrived in princeton in the summer of 1948 joining thompson and hunt.18 not on scene, but a major player nonetheless, was its primary meteorological supporter – the always forward looking rossby. if this group was focused on the development of meteorological theory, why the need for personnel with synoptic experience? synoptic meteorology relied on data collected worldwide and analyzed locally to make predictions. a very subjective endeavor, it was considered by theory-based dynamicists to be more an art than a science. however, rossby recognized that any theory used as a basis for a computational solution had to first include those factors which were either consciously or unconsciously used by the forecaster. after all, they were adding significant skill to turn raw data into a representation of the atmosphere from which they could make a prediction. any additional variables could be added once the approximations and assumptions of the forecasters had been included.19 therein lay a potential problem for the fledging group. if the team members were looking strictly at elegant numerical solutions to the hydrodynamical equations, then they could develop internally consistent models. such models could produce forecasts for conditions at multiple atmospheric levels correctly correlating with each other, but not necessarily having any relation to reality. as rossby noted, the equations needed to be viewed as tools to studying problems suggested by the atmosphere, not as an end in themselves.20 without solid synoptic support, charney’s fear of the group becoming mathematically sterile would become a reality. charney and eliassen developed a very close collaborative effort producing a major article entitled “a numerical method for predicting the perturbations of middle latitude westerlies”.21 it was important because it demonstrated that an objective method could successfully replace more subjective methods. further, the heuristic nature of their approach enabled them to try a model, see how it worked, and modify it as required.22 of scandanavian tag-team and nwp 88 course, how would they know whether it worked or not? the only way to do that was to compare the computer output to analyses produced by synopticians. when the output appeared meteorological and gave results similar to those anticipated by an outstanding analyst then it could be considered valid. eliassen’s value was not just his theoretical and mathematical knowledge, but the synoptic experience that allowed him to analyze the data with a significant degree of expertise. eliassen, however, had accepted a position at ucla with jacob bjerknes and would not be in princeton forever. charney needed a replacement. he settled on another norwegian, ragnar fjörtoft, because of his ability to mix into the general nature of the problems being explored by the project and of course, because he had an excellent synoptic background through his work with the norwegian weather service.23 he arrived in september 1949.24 fjörtoft slid easily into eliassen’s spot and was on hand for the first eniac (the aberdeen proving grounds computer) “expedition” in march 1950. with charney and von neumann, he wrote an article describing the results of their barotropic model runs.25 however, he needed to return to scandinavia in june 1950. charney once again needed a replacement – preferably someone like eliassen or fjörtoft.26 rossby had a new prospect for charney’s group – the swede bert bolin. bolin was an excellent analyst and had had enough theoretical training that he would be able to carry out the needed synoptic studies. the barotropic model had failed in some regions and they needed to determine the non-computational error sources.27 charney thought baroclinicity might be the problem.28 rossby thought it might have been a “rather hidden appearance of cyclonic vorticity aloft”. it would take careful analysis of the atmospheric situation to determine the error source. that would be bolin’s task. as it turned out, fjörtoft returned for another six months stay. during that period, with bolin, fjörtoft and davies on board in addition to joseph and margaret smagorinsky, charney had sufficient personnel to attempt a baroclinic model.29 unfortunately, this abundance of personnel riches came to an abrupt halt in july1951 when for a period of time smagorinsky was the only one left with the group. in the fall of 1951, only charney, norman phillips and joseph smagorinsky were working full time. in the absence of experienced analysts, members of rossby’s international meteorological research institute in stockholm performed a large part of the preliminary work needed for evaluating the new models.30 however, charney needed people on site in princeton and the staffing situation was rather desperate. once again rossby arranged a personnel transfer to the beleaguered charney. by the middle of 1952, ernst hovmöller of the swedish meteorological and hydrological institute (smhi) arrived to undertake the synoptic duties associated with the switch from the barotropic to the baroclinic models.31 still short of people, charney continued to look abroad. one name on his list, eady, was from england, but the other two were the norwegians eliassen and fjörtoft. unfortunately, they were all unavailable until 1953.32 these meteorologists would provide relief, but it was too distant. von neumann made a rather desperate plea to hovmöller’s boss, anders angström, to let him stay proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 89 beyond the end of 1952. von neumann wrote that “his association with us is perhaps the first example of the kind of cooperating that will ultimately have to take place between theoretical and synoptic meteorologists if and when numerical forecasting is integrated into the governmental weather services”.33 angström deflected von neumann’s plea and instead offered roy berggren. von neumann was happy to take berggren, but still wanted hovmöller. angström firmly closed that door, but undeterred von neumann tried again. he needed an outstanding synoptic meteorologist and needed him right then. “to obtain such a person we are willing to bring him over from europe…” berggren arrived in march 1953 and stayed until the end of the year.34 in early 1953, the princeton computer was working well and the project members were kept very busy running models and analyzing output. phillips in princeton and bolin in stockholm changed places in the summer. bolin stayed with the princeton group for nine months where he was joined by eady and fjörtoft.35 fjörtoft remained until the end of june 1955. the last of the tag-team at the meteorology project was fittingly the first eliassen – and he stayed for the six months ending april 1956. by the mid-fifties, the princeton group’s emphasis had shifted to general circulation versus weather prediction due to the opening of the joint numerical weather prediction unit. with von neumann’s departure for the atomic energy commission and support from ias fading, charney left for mit and the meteorology project ceased to exist. conclusion so why the scandinavians? were there no americans capable of performing the detailed analyses needed to validate the models and locate sources of error? prior to world war ii there were very few university trained meteorologists in the united states. most operational forecasters received their training on the job. when the war required many more meteorologists, rossby’s university meteorology committee only accepted for training those who had extensive backgrounds in either physics or mathematics. consequently, those who remained in meteorology after the war often had a different approach to the science than those already in the field. all of the americans working in the meteorology project came into meteorology because of the war and they did not have the practical weather experience which develops a solid feel for the atmosphere. charney realized that it was absolutely imperative that at least some of the people working in numerical modeling have a more subjective feel for the atmosphere and the weather parameters necessary to making a valid prediction if they were going to overcome the skepticism that greeted them from the meteorological community. the “older” meteorologists possessed the necessary backgrounds, but many were either teaching the returning servicemen crowding their campuses or conducting research that had been postponed by the war. some, perhaps, were just not convinced of the need for numerical methods. in any case, those active in the field in the united states were not clamoring to join the highly respected von neumann. scandanavian tag-team and nwp 90 charney needed meteorologists with weather experience coupled with a solid theoretical background; people who were excellent analysts and interpreters of data and who could also communicate physical concepts in terms of complex equations. charney already knew people who fit the requirements because of his stay in norway. he also knew rossby could provide the people he needed to keep the project moving. in the united states, academic meteorologists were not people who were interested in actually predicting the weather. on the other hand the people making the predictions were not considered “meteorologists”, but forecasters; a lower caste of nonprofessional, non-scientific workers. in scandinavia these two groups were often one and the same. therefore, their meteorologists were multi-faceted scientists ready to be tapped for the development which would change the face of meteorology in the middle of the twentieth century – numerical weather prediction – and thus provided a dose of atmospheric reality to a tremendous achievement of applied mathematics. endnotes 1 among them fluid dynamics, elasticity and plasticity theory, electrodynamics and quantum theory. 2 william aspray, john von neumann and the origins of modern computing, cambridge, mass., mit press, 1990. chapter 6 addresses the early period in numerical weather prediction. frederik nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century, san diego, academic press, 1995 addresses the growth of calculations as a tool of weather prediction from the 19th century to the introduction and acceptance of the computers in the advance of numerical weather prediction. he mentions the development of meteorological instrumentation by rca as a possible reason for zworykin’s interest in weather prediction. 3 memo to john von neumann from frank aydelotte of november 9, 1945 (von neumann papers, library of congress, box 12, folder 1) (hereafter: von neumann papers) 4 letter to c.-g. rossby from john von neumann of february 6, 1946 (von neumann papers, box 15, f 7) 5 ibid. 6 letter to f. w. reichelderfer from c.-g. rossby of april 16, 1946 (von neumann papers, box 15, f 7) 7 letter to john von neumann from c.-g. rossby of april 23, 1946 (von neumann papers, box 15, f 7) 8 letter to c.-g. rossby from john von neumann of june 13, 1949 (charney papers, mit archive, mc 184, box 14, f 459) (hereafter: charney papers) 9 letter to cdr d. f. rex from frank aydelotte of may 8, 1946 (von neumann papers, box 15, f 6) 10 progress report, meteorology project, july 1, 1946 to november 15, 1946 (von neumann papers, box 15, f 6) 11 letter to c.-g. rossby from jule charney of march 19, 1947 (charney papers, box 14, f 460) 12 letter to p. d. thompson from jule charney of november 12, 1947 (philip d. thompson papers, national center for atmospheric research, boulder, colorado, folder correspondence jule charney, 1947-1950) (hereafter: thompson papers) 13 letter to jule charney from john von neumann of november 19, 1947 (von neumann papers, box 15, f 1) 14 letter to jule charney from jacob bjerknes of november 4, 1947 (charney papers, box 4, f 120) proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 91 15 letter to jacob bjerknes from jule charney of january 14, 1948 (charney papers, box 4, f 120) 16 letter to john von neumann from jule charney of january 2, 1948 (von neumann papers, box 15, f 1) 17 letter to john von neumann from jule charney of january 2, 1948 (von neumann papers, box 15, f 1) 18 letter to jule charney from john von neumann of february 6, 1948 (von neumann papers, box 15, f 1) 19 letter to j. charney from c.-g. rossby of october 28, 1948 (charney papers, box 14, f 460) 20 letter to jule charney from c.-g. rossby of january 9, 1949 (charney papers, box 14, f 460) 21 j.g. charney and a. eliassen, “a numerical method for predicting the perturbations of middle latitude westerlies”, tellus, 1 (1949), 2: 38-54. 22 letter to j. charney from c.-g. rossby of april 23, 1949 (charney papers, box 14, f 459) 23 letter to c.-g. rossby from jule charney of may 24, 1949 (charney papers, box 14, f 459) 24 progress report, meteorology project, july 1, 1949 to june 30, 1950 (charney papers, box 14, f 459) 25 j.g. charney, r. fjörtoft and j. von neumann, “numerical integration of the barotropic vorticity equation”, tellus, 2 (1950), 237-254. in this barotropic model, density is assumed constant on a pressure surface. 26 letter to c.-g. rossby from jule charney of june 5, 1950 (charney papers, box 14, f 459) 27 letter to jule charney from c.-g. rossby of june 13, 1950 (charney papers, box 14, f 459) 28 letter to george platzman from j. charney of june 22, 1950 (charney papers, box 14, f 451) 29 letter to george platzman from jule charney of june 22, 1950 (charney papers, box 14 f 451). the baroclinic model assumes the advection of both the circulation and thermal fields. 30 progress report, meteorology group, july 1, 1951 to september 30, 1951 (charney papers, box 9, f 304) 31 letter to jule charney from c.-g. rossby of april 10, 1952 (charney papers, box 14, f 459) 32 letter to john von neumann from jule charney of november 17, 1952 (charney papers, box 14, f 517) 33 letter to anders angström from j. von neumann of november 14, 1952 (charney papers, box 16, f 517) 34 letter to anders angström from j. von neumann of february 3, 1953 (charney papers, box 16, f 517) 35 letter to bert bolin from jule charney of february 3, 1953 (charney papers, box 4, f 121) microsoft word 07liu_etal.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 87 simulated and reconstructed temperature in china since 1550 ad jian liu 1 , hans von storch 2 , eduardo zorita 2 , xing chen 3,1 , and sumin wang 1 1. nanjing institute of geography and limnology, chinese academy of sciences, nanjing 210008, p.r.china 2. institute for coastal research, gkss research center, 21502 geesthacht, germany 3. department of atmospheric sciences, nanjing university, nanjing 210093, p.r.china abstract in this paper, reconstructed decadal mean temperature anomaly series of 8 regions of china are compared to those generated in two multi-century simulations with a climate model, which was forced with time variable volcanic aerosols, solar output and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. the two model simulations are rather similar but do exhibit some differences. both the reconstructed and simulated developments of the temperature exhibit a “hockey-stick” pattern, with a marked increase of temperatures since the beginning of the twentieth century. the variations of time scales of a few decades are, however, mostly dissimilar in the historical and proxy-based account and also in the model data. an attempt is made to assess whether the warming during the twentieth century is within the range of “normal’’ variations related to solar and internal dynamical influences. it is found that the reconstructed data are well above the pre-industrial noise level of temperature fluctuations during most of the twentieth century. within the adopted framework, only the increased greenhouse gas concentrations can account for these significantly elevated temperatures. key words: china, climate, temperature, climate model, climate change, detection introduction research of climate change since the little ice age (lia, 1550-1850ad) has received extensive attention in china. widespread and severe famine and serious social turmoil have occurred in china during the lia (xu, 1998). also, the warm conditions after the lia had great impact on human life and the national economy (yang, et al. 2002). because of this broad simulated and reconstructed temperature in china 88 interest, the climate of china during the last 2000 years has been reconstructed by chinese scientists, in particular temperature and precipitation since lia with a variety of proxy data, such as historical documents, tree rings, ice cores, lake warves, archaeological materials, etc. (wang et al., 1998; wang and gong, 2000; liu and cai, 2002; liu and ma, 1999, liu and shao, 2002, zheng and zheng, 1993; yao et al. 1996). recently, two long-term climatic simulation experiments have been done by a consortium of scientists from the institute for coastal research, the gkss research centre and other institutions. the first run, named “christoph columbus” (cc) was run over 535 years beginning in 1450, and is described in some detail by zorita et al. (2003). the second run, named “erik den røde” (edr), was begun in 900 and ran over 1100 years. both simulations were done with the same echo-g climate model with, however, different code versions adapted to different computer systems. reconstructed time series of the radiative effect of the presence of volcanic aerosols, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as well as variable solar output were used as forcing (see below). the modeling results reveal global and regional patterns of natural and anthropogenic climate change, which have some similarities with the observational record (zinke et al., 2004, de zolt et al., 2003). the purpose of the present study is to compare these simulated data with observational evidence for the territory of china, and to interpret the recent changes of chinese temperatures in the context of the forced climate model. in section 2 we briefly introduce the reconstructed temperature data used in this comparison, and in section 3 the simulations are sketched. in section 4 the simulated and reconstructed historical temperature anomalies are compared. in section 5, the warming in the last century is identified as being beyond the range of variations related to natural and internal causes, and in section 6 the paper is concluded with a brief discussion. reconstructed temperature from china continental monsoon dynamics with complicated seasonal patterns are the major characteristics of china’s present climate. the northerly monsoon prevails in winter, the southerly in summer, and the four seasons are very distinct. the season with most of rainfall is summer. from september to april each year, the cold and dry winter monsoon blows from the siberia and mongolia plateau to the mainland of china and weakens gradually from northwest to southeast, causing the cold and dry climatic state with a very large difference in temperature. the length of the wet summer monsoon control is shorter, from april to september. the warm and wet summer monsoon blows from the western pacific and indian oceans, causing a state with high temperature and much rain, with little difference in temperature from north to south. china can be divided into 10 districts (wang at al., 1998a), which are relatively homogeneous in terms of temperature, precipitation and growing season. these are northeast china, north china, east china, the middle of china, south china, southeast china, southwest china, northwest china, the xinjiang region and the tibet region. with proxy data from historical documents, tree rings and ice cores available, reconstructions of the temperature series have been made for all these regions, except regions of northeast china and xinjiang region (figure 1). the reconstructions of 10-year mean temperature anomalies are based on proxies, such as temperature index, tree ring width and density, 18 o of ice cores, via statistical techniques which rely on establishing empirical relationships between modern observations and environments (wang et al., 1998a). the proxy data and time series length of the reconstructed temperature anomalies can be found in table 1. they are anomalies relative to 1880-1979. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 89 the reconstructions have been compared with the empirical evidence available from the past century. unfortunately, this evidence is very uncertain. one analysis of decadal mean temperatures has been prepared by wang et al. (1998b), who used three kinds of data: 1951-1996 cma's monthly temperature series from 165 stations for whole china, 1911-1950 cma's temperature grade diagram series for 139 stations of china, and 1880-1910 documentary, ice core and tree-ring data. on the other hand, jones et al. (1999) made an attempt to reconstruct chinese temperatures from 1856 to 1998 ad. this reconstruction is also rather uncertain, in particular for before 1949 (jones, pers. comm.). both reconstructions deviate markedly from each other also in recent decades, as is demonstrated in figure 2. the fit of the historical data and the "observed" data is facilitated by using data from the wang et al. analysis (1998b). unfortunately, we have no access to the original analyses by wang et al. (1998b) except for region 3. also, robust measures of skill for this reconstruction are not available either, and it seems plausible that the very good fit shown in figure 2 is the result of overfitting. unfortunately we have no means to assess which of the two reconstructions (wang and jones) is more skilful, nor to do our own analysis with the raw data. therefore we have to rely on the published results, even if we have some doubts about the methodology. we therefore adopt the pragmatic, and admittedly to some degree questionable standpoint, that wang's reconstruction is essentially valid on time scales of several decades, e.g., 5-decade running means. the root mean square difference between the 5-decade running means given by the historical reconstruction (based upon historical evidence and geoscientific proxies, fitted to the unavailable wang et al. (1998b) data set) and jones et al. (1999) varies between 0.13ºk and 0.36ºk in the eight regions, and averaged 0.24ºk for all regions. we consider this number a crude but educated estimate of the inherent uncertainty of the historical temperature variations in china on the time scale of 50 years. the time-averaged time series are shown in figure 3. they all share a marked warming since about 1900 by 0.5ºk and more. in 7 out of the 8 regions, the last decades are associated with a cooling, and only in region 4 is the warming continuing. before 1900 the temperatures vary very differently in the 8 regions. in particular region 7 and 8, for which the estimates are not based upon on historical data but on geoscientific proxy data (table 1), which exhibit rather strong negative temperature swings, with additional temperature differences in the warmer regions by 0.5ºk. it is not entirely plausible that the temperature variations are so unconnected even on time scales of 50 and more years. in fact, the variations simulated in the climate model are much more uniform, but it is unclear if this is a realistic property or not. table 1. proxy data and reconstructed series length of 8 regions. (wang et al., 1998a) no. region proxy data length 1 north china historical materials 1380-1990 2 east china historical materials 1380-1990 3 south china historical materials 1500-1990 4 southeast china historical materials 1500-1990 5 central china historical materials 1470-1990 6 southwest china historical materials 1500-1990 7 northwest china ice cores 1000-1990 8 tibet tree rings 1000-1990 simulated and reconstructed temperature in china 90 fig. 1. regions of china with reconstructed temperature series fig. 2. conflicting assessment of decadal mean temperature fluctuations in region 3 of china – according to the wang et al. (1998b) analysis of mainly instrumental data (cma data), jones et al. (1999), the historical reconstruction by wang et al. (1998a), and the cc simulation with echo-g. the decades are labeled by the first year of a decade, e.g., 1920 stands for the years 1920-1929. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 91 fig. 3. time series of reconstructed, temporarily smoothed mean temperatures for the 8 regions shown in figure 1. a running mean filter, averaging 5 consecutive decadal means is applied so that effectively 50-year means are shown. echo-g simulations, 1550-2000 two multi-century integrations have been performed with the state-of-the-art climate model echo-g, which is a combination from the ocean model hope-g in t42 resolution and the atmospheric model echam4 in t30 resolution, both developed at the mpi in hamburg simulated and reconstructed temperature in china 92 (legutke and voss, 1999). two runs, named “christoph columbus” (cc) and “erik den røde” (edr) were executed, one over 535 years and another over 1100 years. the runs were exposed to time-variable external forcing related to solar and volcanic activity and changing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. the co 2 and methane atmospheric concentrations were derived from air trapped in antarctic ice cores (blunier et al., 1995; etheridge et al., 1996). the variations of solar output and the influence of volcanic aerosols on the radiative forcing were derived from the number of sunspots after 1600 ad and concentrations of cosmogenic isotopes in the atmosphere before 1600 ad (crowley, 2000). the forcing due to volcanic aerosols was estimated from concentrations of sulphuric compounds in different ice cores, located mainly over greenland. these forcing factors were then translated to effective variations of the solar constant in the general circulation model (gcm) taking into account the corresponding geometric factors and the mean earth albedo. changing the loading of industrial aerosols has not been incorporated in the simulation. in the following we consider only the time simulated in both runs, namely 1550 to today. for this time figure 4 shows the history of the effective solar activity, greenhouse gas and volcanic-aerosol concentrations used to force the model. the global mean near-surface temperature is also shown. the cc model integration was started in the year 1465 ad with the forcing conditions of 1990, and slowly driven in a 30-year transition period to the corresponding solar, volcanicaerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations estimated for 1500 ad. the model attained an equilibrated state in about the model year 1550. the edr simulation was started in the year 900, and the model attained its new equilibrium within the first 100 years of the integration. the cc simulation is described in some detail by zorita et al. (2003). its consistency with observational evidence during the late maunder minimum is described by zinke et al. (2004), and the relationship between forcing on the one side, and the nao and european temperature on the other side by de zolt et al. (2003). aspects of the edr run are presented in gonzález-ruoco et al. (2004). the material presented in the following is demonstrating that the temperatures in china simulated in the two runs are rather similar, even though the period up to about 1700 edr in some regions seems to be systematically cooler than cc. the simulated data are available on a grid with about 300 km mesh size. the data are spatially averaged to obtain spatial mean values for the eight larger boxes shown in figure 1. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 93 fig. 4. time series of simulated global mean temperature (black) in the cc simulation, of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentration and effective solar constant (red), mimicking the presence of volcanic aerosols and a variable solar output used in both cc and edr. comparisons between modelling results and reconstructions all data are anomalies relative to the 10-decades (1880-1889, 1890-1899, … 1970-1979) mean. the decades are labeled by the first year, i.e., 1980 represents the years 1980-89. we first examine the past century, because during that time the temperature estimates are based mostly on direct observations. during that time we consider decadal (10 year mean) data. in the second step, we consider the longer perspective, when only the reconstruction by wang et al. (1998a) is available. previous analyses (de zolt et al., 2003) have shown that the solar and volcanic forcing is not strong enough to imprint a strong signal on time scales of years to a few decades. therefore, we limit our comparison to multi-decadal time scales, specifically to 5-decade running mean values (i.e., averages of 5 consecutive 10 year means). it is hoped that this smoothing also will overcome in part the inherent uncertainty of this reconstruction. comparison with instrumental data, 1880/1920-1979 here we compare decadal mean temperatures for the eight boxes as simulated in the model, and as estimated from historical and geoscientific evidence (wang et al., 1998a). the bias between the reconstructed and simulated box-mean temperatures varies between 0.07ºk and -0.15ºk, which is, however, considerably less than the systematic difference between simulated and reconstructed temperature in china 94 wang’s estimate and jones’ estimate of 0.16ºk and -0.34ºk. for the root mean square error a similar result is found. the rmse between wang’s estimate and the simulated data is on average 0.30ºk, with a maximum value of 0.34ºk, while the two estimates differ by 0.45ºk on average, and a maximum value of 0.58ºk. thus the difference between model and reconstruction seems insignificant when compared with the inherent uncertainty of the historical reconstructions. since 1920 the jones instrumental data have relatively few gaps. therefore, we compare for this time the variances as given by wang’s reconstruction, the jones reconstruction, and the model output (table 2). the simulated temperature variations are usually similar to jones’ data, with the largest difference in region 8, the tibetan region, where the model simulates a variance up to four times the variance deduced from instrumental observations. in case of the wang’s reconstructed data, the variance is larger than the instrumental variance in 6 out of 8 cases, which is surprising insofar as the reconstructed data are derived from a regression, which underestimates variance. the largest difference is again found for the tibetan region, but this time the factor amounts to fifteen. again, the simulated data are consistent with the observational evidence, if we use the discrepancy between the two reconstructions as a measure of uncertainty. we will later see that this consistency of the model data is mainly due to the strong warming trend in the past century, which is well captured by all three data sets, wang’s reconstruction and the two model simulations. table 2. variances for the 8 regions since 1920 (10 year mean values) region 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 reconstructed 0.15 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.17 0.20 0.30 cc simulated 0.15 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.08 edr simulated 0.14 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 jones’ estimation 0.20 0.07 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.02 comparison of reconstructed and simulated data, 1550-2000 the 50-year running mean temperatures for the eight regions (figure 1) as reconstructed by wang et al. (1998a) and as simulated by the two echo-g runs cc and edr are shown in figure 5. the inherent uncertainty of the reconstructions, as estimated from the root mean square difference between wang et al.’s (1998a) analysis of twentieth century temperature variations and jones et al.’s (1999) analysis, is shown as well. note that the rmse is the expected mean error, i.e., in about half the time, the error would be larger than the rmse, and in the other half smaller. thus it is a much less stringent error margin than a 2 confidence band. in all cases, the warming trend since about 1900 is shared by both the reconstructed temperatures and the simulated changes. in all 8 regions, both simulations warm with a rate of about 0.4-1.1ºk/100a, whereas in wang et al.’s reconstructions the warming is considerably weaker, -0.05 – 0.4ºk/100a, which may be due to a significant cooling caused by the emissions of industrial aerosols, which is not accounted for in the gcm simulations. an exception is region 4, in se china, where the reconstructions reveal a heating of 1.3ºk/100a, and the gcm runs 0.5 and 0.8ºk/100a. in the pre-industrial time (1590-1910), the gcm simulates temperatures lower than wang’s estimates. in particular in the regions 1, 2, 5 and 6, the differences are larger than the history of meteorology 2 (2005) 95 rmse. only in the regions 4 (se china) and 8 (tibet) do the simulated temperatures vary within plus/minus one rmse. in case of tibet, the coincidence between the gcm and the proxy data is excellent. also, the development in the northwest, in region 7, is similar, even if the lowfrequency variations are different. in the gcm world, temperatures vary around a level of -0.5ºk and less, while the reconstructed temperatures vary around a level of -0.3ºk or decline from a value close in 1550 to zero to a minimum in the late nineteenth century (regions 3 and 6 in central and southern china). in general, the decadal variations are dissimilar in the reconstructed data and in the simulated data, even though the data are already heavily smoothed with a 5-decade running mean filter. the correlations between the reconstructed data and the cc-simulation for the entire period, 1590-1980, is positive (0.47 – 0.84), but these high values are essentially reflecting the presence of the hockey-stick pattern. if the two periods, pre-industrial 1590-1910 and industrial 1920-1980 are considered separately, the correlations become much smaller, namely -0.32 (region 6) to 0.72 (region 8) for the pre-industrial times, and -0.17 (region 1) to 0.32 (region 7) in modern times. (because of the heavy serial correlation in the data, the determination of significance levels is not meaningful.) interestingly, the simulated curves are among themselves rather similar, quite differently from the large region-to-region variations displayed in figure 3 for wang’s reconstruction. simulated and reconstructed temperature in china 96 fig. 5. comparisons of reconstructed (red) and simulated (black: cc; blue-dashed: edr) 5-decade running mean temperature anomaly series for 8 regions of china as given in figure 1. the uncertainty (vertical hatching) of the reconstructed temperature variations (wang et al., 1998) is estimated by the rmse between the reconstructed values by wang et al (1998) and those obtained by jones et al. (1999) since 1880. the horizontal lines with triangles indicate thresholds estimated to represent the expected range of natural variations, as estimated from wang et al.’s reconstructions (downward triangles) and as estimated for the cc simulation (upward triangles). the 5-decade running means are labeled by the last decade, e.g., 1980 refers to 1940-1989. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 97 eof analysis an eof analysis is used to determine the joint spatial variability of the 5-decade running mean temperature for the entire time period 1590-1980. the eofs are normalized so that the time series have a standard deviation of one, so that the magnitude of the signals is given by the patterns. not unexpectedly is one eof enough to explain the bulk of the variations, namely 86% in the case of the historical reconstruction, and 99% for the two gcm data sets (table 3). in case of the historical data, two more eofs carry a noteworthy amount of variance, namely 5% each. as already mentioned, the synchronicity in the reconstructed data is weaker than in the gcm data (cf. figure 5). it is unclear if this greater spatial variability (or, in other words, the larger degrees of freedom) is reflecting real temperature variations, or if it is due to the insufficiencies of the reconstruction process. the eof is describing a synchronous warming, or cooling, in all eight regions. the loadings in the gcm eof are higher than in the reconstructed data eof. this is to some extent due to the fact that less variance is described, but it is also reflecting the fact that large swings in the simulated temperature, for instance in the early eighteenth century, are absent in the reconstructed data. again, the similarity is best in case of tibet (region 8). the time series associated with the first eof modes of simulated and reconstructed data is shown in figure 6. the correlation coefficient of these two series is 0.80. the overall similarity is remarkably large, in particular with respect to the century-scale changes, but with time scales shorter than a century, the time series differ substantially. again the hockey-stick pattern clearly emerges. note that the similarity in the range of variation is caused by the normalization of the eofs. table 3. first eof of reconstructed and simulated temperature in the eight regions. prior to the eof analysis, the data are smoothed with a running 5-decade filter. the eofs are normalized so that the time coefficients (figure 6) have a standard deviation of 1. region 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 described variance (%) reconstructed 0.36 0.38 0.25 0.24 0.38 0.31 0.63 0.53 0.86 christoph columbus 0.65 0.59 0.44 0.48 0.50 0.56 0.74 0.50 0.99 erik the red 0.82 0.70 0.54 0.55 0.67 0.53 0.75 0.50 0.99 simulated and reconstructed temperature in china 98 fig. 6. time series of the first eof coefficients of 5-decade running mean simulated and reconstructed temperature. note that the eofs are normalized to standard deviation 1, so that the patterns (in table 4) carry different magnitudes of variations. the 5-decade running mean values are labeled by the last considered decade, so that 1970 refers 1930-1979. assessment of the warming during the last century the similarity of the century-scale variations in the reconstruction and in the gcm output is remarkable. the main feature of the similarity is the relatively stationary conditions until about 1900, on top of which significant decade-to-decade variations are taking place. in the gcm, these variations are related to changing forcing conditions, as displayed in figure 4. the variations in volcanic activity contribute mostly to variations that extend only over a few years. the solar activity contributes to variations on all time scales, but the dominant signal is exerted by the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the twentieth century. the question is if the reconstructed record may be interpreted similarly. this is the “detection and attribution” problem (hasselmann, 1979; hegerl et al., 1997; zwiers, 1999). that is, one has first to demonstrate that the recent warming is beyond the variations one would expect from “natural variations”, i.e. variations prior to 1910 due to natural and internal causes. next, one has to demonstrate that the recent decades warming trend is consistent with the simulated response to the given forcing, i.e., to the forcing spectrum given in figure 4. detection to accomplish this, we first determine the variability of the smoothed temperature time series displayed in figure 5 during pre-industrial times, and compare these with the changes which have taken place in the twentieth century. in table 4, the mean value of wang’s reconstruction for 1590-1910 is listed together with the standard deviations for that time in history of meteorology 2 (2005) 99 wang’s reconstruction, as well as in the two simulations. we consider this period of 1590-1910 as “pre-industrial time”, which is not significantly affected by anthropogenic factors. the level of variability during pre-industrial time is mostly consistent in the reconstructions and in the gcm simulations, even though there are sometimes larger differences. we consider a temperature above the range of “normal” variations, when it is larger than the mean plus two standard deviations. this “pre-industrial” noise level, as given by the mean value derived from the reconstructions plus 2 standard deviations, taken from either the reconstructions or from the cc simulations, is displayed in figure 5 by horizontal lines marked with triangles. table 4. characteristics of 5-decade running mean temperature during the “pre-industrial time” (1590-1910) in the eight chinese regions. wang et al.’s reconstruction (mean and standard deviation) is shown in the top two rows. gcm simulations cc and edr (standard deviations) are shown in the bottom two rows. parameter data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 time mean wang et al. reconstruction -0.38 -0.40 -0.27 -0.24 -0.41 -0.34 -0.68 -0.53 standard deviation wang et al. reconstruction 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.08 0.16 0.18 0.26 0.18 standard deviation cc gcm 0.27 0.23 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.24 0.14 standard deviation edr gcm 0.22 0.26 0.21 0.20 0.26 0.18 0.21 0.13 table 5. times during which the 5-decade running mean temperature reconstructed by wang et al. (1998) is above the “pre-industrial noise level”, given by mean plus 2 standard deviation for the time 1590-1910. region times with significantly elevated temperatures 1 1920-1980 2 1930-1980 3 1930-1970 4 1950-1980 5 1930-1980 6 1940-1960 7 1920-1980 8 1920-1980 the times when the reconstructed temperature is beyond the 1590-1910 average plus 2 standard deviations are listed in table 5, with the parameters given in table 4. on average, about 98% of all pre-industrial temperatures should be below this level. in fact, this estimate of the preindustrial noise level is conservative, as all temperatures were beyond this level (figure 5). this is due to the skewing of the temperature distribution. in all 8 regions, most of the twentieth century temperatures were above the pre-industrial noise level, as defined by either the cc model data or wang et al.’s reconstructions (figure 5). if the standard deviations derived from wang’s reconstruction are replaced by the larger standard deviations derived from the pre-industrial periods in the gcm simulations, similar noise levels are obtained (figure 5) with the same overall conclusions, namely that during most of the simulated and reconstructed temperature in china 100 twentieth century the reconstructed temperatures are significantly elevated compared to the preindustrial period 1590-1910. thus, we conclude that the recent warming in china, as it is documented in wang et al.’s (1998a) reconstruction, is beyond the range of natural variation, and that an explanation of the phenomenon requires the consideration of other factors, in particular increased levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. attribution in order to assess the likelihood that greenhouse gas forcing would be responsible for the recent warming; a simple statistical model for the temperature evolution is fitted to the output of the gcm simulation for each of the eight boxes: here, t t is the smoothed temperature deviation from the pre-industrial mean (1590-1910; given in table 4); s t is the time-variable solar forcing deviation from the pre-industrial mean 1590-1910, and c t the time variable deviation in greenhouse gas concentrations, n t stands for the remainder which is consider in this context as noise. the coefficients , , and are determined so that the model variations are best described: table 6. regional coefficients of the model. region 1 0.604 0.118 1.697 2 0.643 0.087 1.562 3 0.867 0.009 1.365 4 0.740 0.039 1.272 5 0.709 0.064 1.443 6 0.962 -0.008 1.351 7 0.714 0.040 1.306 8 0.836 0.043 1.456 a direct comparison of the three parameters is not possible since the variance of the temperature itself and of the two forcing factors is different. however, the memory term t t is the most important – the very magnitude of is due to the heavy smoothing by the 5-decade running mean filter. the influence of the solar forcing varies substantially between the 8 regions, and in one case the fit even results in a physically implausible negative value – indicating that the fit may suffer somewhat form estimation problems. the parameter -coefficient is similar in the eight boxes. the model is linear, so that sum of the response t t s to solar and volcanic forcing alone and of the response t t c to greenhouse gas forcing alone equals the response to both forcings, if the noise is disregarded and both are integrated with the same initial value t 1590 . therefore, history of meteorology 2 (2005) 101 equation (*) allows an estimate of the relative importance of the two forcing factors. in following table 7, we list the reconstructed change of temperature according to wang et al. (1998a), the change estimated through (*) to solar and volcanic forcing alone, to greenhouse gas forcing alone, and to both of them. these are all deviations from the pre-industrial values (1590-1910) table 7. reconstructed change of temperature according to wang et al. (1998a), the change estimated through (*) to solar and volcanic forcing alone, to greenhouse gas forcing alone, to both forcings, and the ratio of wang to (*). these are all deviations from the pre-industrial values (1590-1910). region 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 wang et al. (1998a) 0.47 0.49 0.36 0.28 0.50 0.47 0.81 0.70 (*) with s t =0 0.48 0.47 0.69 0.47 0.50 0.72 0.69 0.45 (*) with log c t =0 0.59 0.45 0.04 0.23 0.38 -0.18 0.31 0.23 (*) with both forcings 1.08 0.93 0.73 0.70 0.88 0.58 1.00 0.68 ratio wang/(*) 0.44 0.53 0.49 0.40 0.57 0.81 0.81 1.02 when comparing the historical warming with the estimated warming (second and fifth rows) we find that (*) gives higher values. the ratio of the two numbers (last row) varies between 0.40 in the eastern part of china and 1.02 in the western part. we suggest that this overestimation by model (*) reflects the increasing cooling effect of regional emissions of industrial aerosols, which are strongest in the densely populated east and south of china, while the western part of china experiences less increasing emissions. apart from region 1, the estimated warming due to solar and volcanic effects (fourth row) is smaller than the estimated anthropogenic greenhouse effect (third row). only the anthropogenic greenhouse effect is strong enough to explain the observed warming, in spite of the fact that the latter is considerably reduced by the unaccounted-for effect of the increasing industrial aerosol impacts. we conclude that the total estimated response is consistent with the empirical evidence in terms of sign and, to a lesser extent, with magnitude. the major part of the twentieth century warming can be explained only with the help of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas effect, whereas the solar effect can account for only a smaller proportion. differently from the development in the gcm simulations, which is a steady upward trend throughout the twentieth century, there is in the reconstructions a decline in the second half of the twentieth century. we suggest that this is reflecting the steady increase of industrial aerosol emissions (krüger, pers. communication) in china. conclusions we have analyzed wang et al.’s (1998a) reconstruction of regional temperatures in china since the sixteenth century with respect to traces of the impact of changing forcing conditions. we found that the reconstructed temperatures are reasonably well simulated by a climate model subject to time-variable solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing. the similarity is good on time scales of a century, while the model generates variability on shorter time scales without a counterpart in the reconstructions. the development of regional temperature in the recent decades of the industrial period is towards significantly elevated levels, where the significance is assessed by comparison against a simulated and reconstructed temperature in china 102 pre-industrial “normal” and “noise level”. thus, the presence of non-normal external factors must be assumed. using the gcm simulations to assess the relative importance of the solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gas forcing, we find that only the greenhouse gas forcing can account for the recent warming. there are a number of potential sources for errors. the most severe is the reliability of the historical reconstructions of regional temperature in china. these temperatures are rather uncertain not only because of the usual uncertainties in data derived from, for instance, tree ring width, but also since the data base of instrumental data to build the empirical transfer functions is not good. other caveats refer to the model simulations. for instance, the inclusion of the volcanic effects is relatively rough. also, the effect of industrial aerosols of cooling the regional atmosphere is not represented in the model simulations. finally, the utilized forcing factors suffer from uncertainties. acknowledgements financial support was provided by the natural sciences foundation of china (40272123), the chinese academy of sciences (kzcx3-sw-321) and by the gkss research center in geesthacht, germany. valuable help and advice were given by fidel gonzàlez-ruoco and olaf krüger. beate gardeike helped professionally with the diagrams. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 103 references blunier, t., j.a. chappellaz, j. schwander, b. stauffer, and d. raynaud, 1995. variations in atmospheric methane concentration during the holocene epoch. nature 374, 46-49. crowley, t.j., 2000, causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. science 289, 270-277. de zolt, s., p.lionello, j. luterbacher and e. zorita, 2003. the variability of the winter european climate and the nao index during the last 500 years. (in preparation) etheridge d., l.p steele, r.l. langenfelds, r.j. francey j.m. barnola, v.i., morgan, 1996. natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric co2 over the last 1000 years from air in antarctic ice and firn. j. geophys. res. 101, 4115-4128. gonzález-ruoco, j.f., h. von storch and e. zorita, 2003. deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years . geophys. res. lett. 30, 2116-2125. hasselmann, k., 1979. on the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies. meteorology over the tropical oceans, b.d. shaw ed., roy. metorol. soc., bracknell, berkshire, england, 251-259. hegerl, g.c., k.h. hasselmann, u. cubasch, j.f.b. mitchell, e. roeckner, r. voss and j. waszkewitz, 1997. multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change. clim. dyn. 13, 613-634. jones, p.d., m. new, d.e. parker et al. 1999. surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. rev. geophys. 37, 173-199. legutke, s., and r. voss, 1999, the hamburg atmosphere-ocean coupled circulation model echo-g. technical report no. 18, dkrz, hamburg, germany. liu, h-b. and x-m. shao, 2002. reconstruction of the dry index series of early summer during the last 500 years within the pass area of shaanxi of china and adjacent area. quaternary sciences 22 (3), 220-229 (in chinese). liu, y. and q-f. cai, 2002. tree ring precipitation records and changing of eastern asian summer monsoon — taking baotou area of the inner mongol as an example. front of earth sciences 8 (1), 91-97 (in chinese). liu, y. and l-m. ma, 1999. reconstruction of seasonal precipitation from tree ring width of huhehaote during the last 376 years. chinese sci. bull. 44 (18), 1986-1992 (in chinese). wang, sh-w., j-l. ye, and gong d-y, 1998a. climate of little ice age in china. quaternary sciences 18 (1), 54-64 (in chinese). wang, sh-w., j-l. ye, d-y. gong, j-h. zhu, and t.d. yao, 1998b. construction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in china. quart. j. appl. meteorol. 9 (4), 392-401 (in chinese). wang, sh-w, gong d-y, 2000, temperatures of china in several typical periods of holocene. prog. nat. sci. 10 (4), 325-332 (in chinese) xu, j-h., 1998. sun, climate, famine and national migration. science in china (series d), 41 (5), 449-472. yang b., et al., 2002. research progress on climate change during the last 2000 years. progress in earth science 17 (1), 110-117 (in chinese). yao, t-d, d-h. qin, l-d. tian, et al., 1996. variations in temperature and precipitation in the past 2000a on the tibetan plateau: guliya ice core record. science in china (series d), 39 (4), 425-433. simulated and reconstructed temperature in china 104 zheng, j-y, and zheng s-zh, 1993, states of cold, warm, drought and waterlogging of shandong province during historical period. journal of geography, 48(4) 348-357 (in chinese) zinke, j., h. von storch, b. müller, e. zorita, b. rein, h. b. mieding, h. miller, a. lücke, g.h. schleser, m.j. schwab, j.f.w. negendank, u. kienel, j.f. gonzález-ruoco, c. dullo and a. eisenhauser, 2004, evidence for the climate during the late maunder minimum from proxy data available within kihz. in h. fischer, t. kumke, g. lohmann, g. flöser, h. miller, h, von storch und j. f. w. negendank, eds., the kihz project: towards a synthesis of holocene proxy data and climate models, springer verlag, berlin, in press. zorita, e., h. von storch, f. gonzález-rouco, u. cubasch, j. luterbacher, s. legutke , i. fischer-bruns and u. schlese, 2003, simulation of the climate of the last five centuries, gkss report 2003/12, 43 pp. zwiers, f., 1999. the detection of climate change. in: h. von storch and g. flöser, eds., anthropogenic climate change, springer verlag, berlin, 163-209. history of meteorology volume 7, 2015 gunnar ellingsen and magnus vollset guest editors james rodger fleming editor-in-chief history of meteorology is the peer-reviewed journal of the ichm. © ichm 2015 issn 1555-5763 proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology history of meteorology (7) 2015 ii this page is intentionally left blank history of meteorology (7) 2015 iii contents pages introduction, call for papers, and style guide iv-v james r. fleming (usa) 1-13 weather and climate as shape-shifting nouns: gordian knots of understanding and prevision sean munger (usa) 14-24 the weather watchers: amateur climatologists and environmental consciousness, 1810-20 claire fenby (australia) 25-38 ‘seven lean years, seven fat years’: climate theory in australia, 1820–1830 gunnar ellingsen (norway) 39-48 on climates and disciplines in norway in the 1870s phillipp n. lehmann (germany) 49-70 whither climatology? brückner’s climate oscillations, data debates, and dynamic climatology alexander f. hall (uk) 71-82 geographers, stats-men and sages: approaches to climatology in britain post-1945 magnus vollset (norway) 83-97 asking too much? postwar climate research in norway, 1947-1961 vladimir janković (uk) 98-111 working with weather: atmospheric resources, climate variability and the rise of industrial meteorology, 1950 – 2010 history of meteorology (7) 2015 iv climate in meteorology, meteorology in climate studies today, the term “climate” is associated with global warming and efforts to reduce man-made climate change, but the term can also be used to describe the meteorological characteristics of a place, average weather and lived experiences. working with a project on the history of meteorology in norway, we noticed how concepts of climate have varied over time, with emphasis shifting between geographical and temporal properties, empirical studies and competing theories, and iterating between optimism and fear for the future. when the first systematic studies of weather in norway began in the 1760s, the key to understanding and prediction was found in previous year’s weather. by 1866, when the norwegian meteorological institute was established, climatology was what made meteorology sufficiently “scientific” to justify the institute becoming part of the university in christiania. soon afterwards, attention shifted to looking at weather observations as snapshots that outline the anatomy of cyclones. add another century, and we find postwar meteorologists seeking weather data in four dimensions in attempts to identify mechanisms governing tomorrow’s rhythm of the atmosphere, with climatologists reduced to bookkeepers. today, climate is synonymous with multidisciplinarity, business outcomes, global politics and deep concerns about our common future. climate used to be something humans were exposed to, today climate is also exposed to humanity. against this backdrop of ever-changing understanding of climate, a group of historians gathered for a workshop in bergen, norway, in november 2014 under the heading “climate in meteorology, meteorology in climate studies”. the goal was to discuss big questions: what meanings has the term climate had? in which contexts has climate been important, and to whom? why do meteorologists sometimes play a peripheral role in climate studies; how, when and why did they enter or exit center stage? how has this influenced the interdisciplinary field of climate studies today? in this special issue we present eight of the papers that were given at the workshop in november 2014. together they span more than 200 years of history, from the early 1800s until today. geographically they stretch from the united states in the west to australia in the east. thematically, the manuscripts demonstrate the multitude of ways that climate has been studied, the different roles meteorologists have had, and how the meanings of key concepts have changed over time. as historians, we are trained in seeing beyond the complicated fabric of our own time and observe, describe and understand those of the past. opening this issue, jim fleming describes climate as “inseparable from the temporality and specificity of the social world” and as “woven into the fabric of human past and future”, as well as the relations between climate and weather. this underlines the topic’s fundamental importance to what historians study: human life and societies through time. the next two papers discuss how inquiries into climate were sparked by weather perceived to be out of the ordinary. sean munger shows how the uncommonly cold weather in the 1810s inspired searches for patterns among ‘weather watchers’ on both sides of the atlantic. claire fenby examines how europeans gathered knowledge and gave meaning to the climate they experienced in the newly established colony of new south wales, australia, around the same period. meteorologists have never been the only voices in the choir of expertise that have defined the scientific interests, agendas, understandings and approaches to climate, and a returning feature has been the contested question of whose expertise and what evidence to rely on for authoritative knowledge. gunnar ellingsen presents how a meteorologist and a history of meteorology (7) 2015 v botanist at the university of christiania studied climate using different methods and representing different scientific virtues in the 1870s. in phillipp lehmann’s paper, the german meteorologist eduard brückner takes the lead as climatologists turned from glaciers and bodies of water to meteorological observations in the first decades of the 20 th century. in the postwar period, perceptions of climate were still influenced by questions of expertise and authority as several groups of actors were involved in gathering observations and giving meaning to changes in weather over time. alexander hall describes how both scientists and laymen influenced modern climatology in postwar britain, taking cues from farmers, amateur-type natural historians and botanists. magnus vollset shows how meteorology was but one of several disciplines engaged in attempts at predicting climate variations in order to secure the supply of hydropower in postwar norway. meteorologists were also lured or pushed into new roles emerging from new knowledge and experience about climate. vladimir jankovic argues that industrial growth, combined with increasing vulnerability to adverse weather, opened up new markets for meteorologists in the 1970s. climate has created new types of weather, which in turn have created new roles for the meteorologists. the multidisciplinarity of present-day climate studies is both a solution to a problem and a problem unto itself. in order to examine or heal the “sick planet”, disciplines have to communicate, cooperate and negotiate across borders between authorities, languages, and world-views. 1 this has not always been the case. nor has increased global temperatures always been seen as a problem. through spelling out how the concepts and collaborations have played out in the past, historians can stimulate a more reflected debate both among lay public and stakeholders from different backgrounds who today are expected to collaborate. gunnar ellingsen and magnus vollset, guest editors acknowledgements the workshop was organized by the history of meteorology-project at the department of archaeology, history, cultural studies and religion (ahkr) at the university of bergen (uib), with financial support from the university and the norwegian meteorological institute. we are also grateful for the support from the international commission for the history of meteorology (ichm) who invited and sponsored the travel expenses for five young scholars. finally, we would like to thank the twelve peer-reviewers for their great efforts to secure and enhance the quality of the papers. 1 the sick planet metaphor is borrowed from fleming, james r. and vladimir jankovic: «revisiting klima». osiris. vol 26, no. 1. 2011: 1-15. history of meteorology (7) 2015 vi history of meteorology call for papers articles on the history of meteorology and related sciences are now being accepted on a rolling basis for consideration in history of meteorology; so too are proposals to edit special issues. manuscripts should be based on original research and present a novel thesis; they must be engaging, clearly written, and fully documented, following the style guide below. authors are reminded that international and interdisciplinary perspectives are encouraged. all papers will be subject to peer review. because this is an electronic journal, it is possible to publish color illustrations and experiment with alternative media such as audio and video files and databases. history of meteorology has a stable url at http://meteohistory.org and has been assigned issn 1555-5763 by the u.s. library of congress. it is currently being indexed by two leading services: isis current bibliography of the history of science and meteorological and geoastrophysical abstracts. queries or manuscripts should be 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reference format for subsequent citations of a text. endnotes are not meant to be discursive. microsoft word 08mcnally.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 105 reconstruction of late 18 th century upper-air circulation using forensic synoptic analysis louis k. mcnally, iii l.k. mcnally & assoc., inc., portland, maine, usa introduction in this study i attempt to develop an outline of the general atmospheric flow around the time of 1785 c.e., in north america. the results of my reconstruction of daily weather in the year 1785 in the northeastern part of north america imply a relatively cold flow over central and eastern north america for most of the year (mcnally, 2004). the source of the colder air is to the north and west, and i begin with the assumption that a north to northwest flow from north central canada was prevalent for most of the year. by comparing proxy data from other locations around the world to identify the location of the polar front (or edge of the polar cell), it is possible to outline a general flow around the northern hemisphere resulting in one similar to that theorized by lamb (1977), and described as a “short-circuit cross-polar” flow, around the edge of a displaced and possibly larger polar cell. this flow suggests storm tracks that would provide the precipitation necessary for the development of the laurentide and scandinavian ice sheets. storms would travel up the east coast of the united states and recurve northward into eastern canada. an additional track would supply the moisture for northern europe. this circulation, also independently described by flohn (1969), is similar to that which may have been prevalent at the onset and during the dissipation of the most recent glaciation (figure 1). wexler (1956) has suggested that a hypothetical reduction of 20% in insolation, whether from reduced solar output or from volcanic effects, would result in a circulation characterized by a broad trough over eastern north america. lamb (1977) notes that this is similar, although weaker, to the circulation around 1800 c.e. both are characterized by a strong and persistent trough in eastern canada, extending down the east coast of the u.s. this would result in a prevalent cold flow to the northeastern united states from canada. these patterns may be representative of a transitional period between major warm and cold regimes in the northern hemisphere. studies covering the 1780s are sparse, and concentrate on the possible cooling from volcanic effects in 1783-1785. however, valuable data can be extracted to arrive at the outline of the prevalent flow by following the cooling signal, or lack of it, in these proxy studies. additionally, numerous analyses exist focusing around the year 1816, following the eruption of tambora, some of which do extend back to 1785. the dust veil index (dvi) for the 1816 time reconstruction of upper-air circulation 106 period is very high, as is that in 1785 (3000 and 1000 respectively vs. 1680-1974 c.e. average of 475, lamb, 1972). some additional inferences may be drawn from and comparisons made to the 1816 data. both 1785 and 1816 followed moderate (m+) enso events, and the differences between the resultant effects also suggest the presence of a generally cold cross-polar flow in 1785. most of the cooling effect from tambora in 1815 occurred in the year immediately following the eruption. mid-latitude effects from the eruptions in 1783 appear to have lingered for two years (kington, 1992). generally, although the decade of the 1780s was already colder than normal in many areas, the cold cross-polar flow appears to be amplified by the effects of the 1783-1785 high-latitude volcanic events in both iceland and japan. this amplification is also supported by the findings of quinn and neal, outlining the possible combination of effects from the el chichon eruption and the el niño of 1982-1983 (quinn and neal, 1983b). it would appear, then, that additional forced cooling from reduced insolation when occurring in a generally cooler period might trigger the cross-polar flow. fig. 1. short-circuit flow, from lamb, for the onset of the würm/wisconsinan glaciation. thin line denotes average 5300 geopotential meter surface to 500 mb thickness for january. short arrows denote prevailing surface wind. broad arrows indicate storm tracks. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 107 it would also appear that this cross-polar flow “short-circuits” the normal general atmospheric circulation, particularly at polar latitudes above 60° north. this flow develops brief, yet strong polar outbreaks at the southern end of the cross-polar route in canada and the eastern united states. this further supports the finding of split-flow in the jet stream that may, in fact, sometimes have three branches. an expanded or displaced polar cell, evidenced by a polar front further south than normal in north america, may take on very different circulation characteristics from the usual, or normal, polar cell of today. these differences are most pronounced in north america, the north atlantic ocean, western europe, and central asia. the preferential cooling in these areas may point to a displacement of the polar cell to those areas, as opposed to a wholesale expansion. i begin the reconstruction, then, with the assumed northwest cold flow in canada, west of hudson bay. reconstruction of upper-air circulation 108 fig. 2. data points for reconstruction of prevalent flow in 1785, c.e. see table 1 for data types used. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 109 table 1. data points, sources, and descriptions data point source description 1 mcnally documentary and observational data forensic synoptics 2 baron documentary and observational data content analysis 3 crowe documentary evidence triangulation and extrapolation 4 fayle radial and height increment tree growth analysis 5 lough tree ring chronologies, regression analysis 6 luckman and colenutt latewood marker tree ring chronologies 7 fritts and shao standardized tree ring width measurement, spatial arrays 8 alt, et al isotope and melt percent values, synoptic analogues 9 lamb monthly mean msl from observations 10 ogilvie documentary evidence 11 n.h. gazette and pfister documentary evidence, newspaper, diaries 12 schove tree ring analysis 13 moberg historical observations 14 wood historical observations 15 bednarz and trepinska width and maximum density tree ring studies 16 serre bachet, et al tree ring width 17 serre bachet, et al dendroclimatological and documentary reconstruction 18 roy documentary evidence, delhi wheat prices, 19 wang and zhang documentary evidence, qing yu lu 20 tsukamura synoptic analogues 21 mikami and tsukamura documentary evidence, freeze dates, diaries 22 huang jiyaou documentary evidence, dryness/wetness grades 23 borisenkov documentary evidence, religious chronicles 24 meeker and mayewski ice core evidence, ion series north america in addition to my results, content analysis by baron and gordon (1985) shows that the early 1780s in eastern massachusetts, in general, exhibit shorter growing seasons, more winter days with fair-sky conditions, more summer days with thunderstorms, and more winter snowfall days than the remainder of the decade. both shorter growing seasons and more winter days with fair-sky conditions indicate a prevalence of clearer arctic or polar air masses in both summer and winter. the variability and vigor of the atmospheric circulation at other times of the year can be deduced from the more frequent summer thunderstorms, indicating an active summer alberta storm track. more winter snowfall days would indicate more frequent and slower-moving winter storms. generally, when not under the direct influence of polar air masses, the northeast could be construed to be near the polar front, its southern edge determined by the storm tracks in eastern north america. these results concur with mine. crowe (1992), in his reconstruction of temperatures for toronto, ontario, canada, finds significant effects from the volcanic activity in the summer of 1816, but very little variation during the 1783-1785 time period. mean july temperature in 1816 (16.1°c) is more than 3° below the 50-year running mean, while 1783-1785 are all within 1° of the 50-year running mean. the similarities in the july mean temperatures of 1783-1785 would indicate a persistent pattern, consistent with the interior of a cold air mass as opposed to the dramatic effects in 1816. again, assuming that the polar front is generally south of the area in 1785, the effects of the weaker reconstruction of upper-air circulation 110 volcanic activity would not be expected to appear in data from so far inland, inside a continental air mass. further north and west, and deeper into the continent, at churchill, manitoba, some cumulative effect on tree growth after tambora is noted with white spruce (picea glauca) and tamarack (larix laricina) studies (fayle, et al., 1992), but no major effect is found, further supporting the presence of a continental air mass, which is assumed to be present in 1785. tree ring chronologies for the western part of north america developed by lough (1992) show no large deviation from a long-term (1602-1960) mean. as the chronologies are reconstructed from sites at middle latitudes in the western third of the continent, this result is not surprising. in fact, the continentality expected from these interior sites in the southwestern part of canada and the western usa, within and east of the rocky mountains, would prevent or at least dampen the detection of any signal from the east or north. these areas are under the effects of semi-permanent continental pressure patterns and away from the assumed cold northwest flow east of the rocky mountains, which marks the westward extent of the polar cell. they would not necessarily exhibit the sensitivity that would be expected in locations more proximate to the cross-polar flow, such as the area further north in central canada or in northeastern north america. luckman and colenutt, (1992) conducted additional studies in the high-elevation canadian west, above 50°n. their results support the assumption that this region is out of the cross-polar flow, and influenced more by a flow from the pacific ocean. although there is some reduction in radial tree growth, which could be attributed to a general cooling, wide variation is found in the mid-1780s. this would be consistent with an onshore flow from the pacific; any stabilizing continental effects would be expected further east and south. at these higher latitudes, the effects of this stronger zonal flow would be exhibited here in the canadian rockies as compared to the region near the united states-canada border. as they are not, thus ruling out a zonal flow extending into the center of the continent, a strong cold northwest flow in central canada may be additionally supported, while still implying a general flow from the pacific. in the western united states, fritts and shao (1992) reconstructed temperature and precipitation from a variety of spatial arrays of sites. these areas included the columbia basin, the california valleys, intermountain basins, southwest deserts, the northern high plains and the southern high plains. throughout the entire area, temperature and precipitation data for the period from 1750 to 1800 show very little variation from the norm, with the exception of the temperature reconstruction for the high plains data set. there is a colder than normal period which stretches from 1770-1790 and it is found only in the high plains data set. in the absence of any other large deviations over the time frame, one may assume that persistent cold affected only the high plains, which is consistent with a steady northwest flow from northern canada. the southern high plains are apparently unaffected, which supports the cold northwest flow from central canada curving eastward towards the great lakes and the northeastern united states, and south of toronto. this western edge of the circulation in 1785 is also consistent with lamb's suggested flow. arctic and iceland in a cross-polar flow, arctic locations in northern canada would be directly in the path of continental air masses migrating across the north pole from asia. in any flow, evidence of volcanic activity would be found in high arctic ice. indeed, a marked signal is present in ice cores from the agassiz and devon sites in the high canadian arctic (alt, et al., 1992). however, history of meteorology 2 (2005) 111 similarities in the effects from both the 1815 and 1783-1785 eruptions show that the period of both was one of general cooling in the arctic. brief episodes of further cooling followed both eruptions as well. circulation patterns following each, however, are different. alt et al, (alt, 1985, 1987, alt, et al, 1985), using previously developed analogues, further conclude that the general synoptic pattern around the time of the tambora eruption is similar to that in 1972, as characterized by the presence of a strong 500 millibar (50kpa) vortex centered near northern greenland (figure 3). no analog is presented for 1785. the western edge of this circulation is in a similar location to that of the 1785 cross-polar flow. the eastern side, however, shows a return flow poleward from the central north atlantic ocean. in contrast, my results indicate that the circulation in the 1780s appears to continue eastward as a strong zonal flow across the atlantic. in the case of 1785, the center of the vortex (icelandic low) would most likely be depressed further southward and expanded eastward. this may explain alt's findings, where the circulation pattern after the laki eruption was different from that of tambora. this expansion and eastward shearing of the low pressure vortex will also be identified in the european data discussed below. reconstruction of upper-air circulation 112 fig. 3. summer circulation of 1972, analogous to 1816, from alt. ogilvie (1992) studied sea ice records for the area around iceland and shows that on a decadal scale the 1780s contained the greatest amount of sea ice on record. the series extends back to 1501. there is a positive correlation between sea ice incidence and temperature (bergthorsson, 1969, ogilvie, 1981, 1984a), and the cold regime thus inferred could be caused by an increase in the flow around the semi-permanent high over greenland and an extended low pressure area in the atlantic ocean. it is possible that a rex block may have developed, similar to the one in figure 4, but displaced northward. this circulation pattern agrees with the flow history of meteorology 2 (2005) 113 around the high pressure area over europe as well, and can help explain the mechanism by which northern europe is both colder and drier than normal. fig. 4. 500 mb (50 kpa) circulation in mid-march, 2002. note rex block (high north of low) in eastern atlantic, forcing split flow upstream. atlantic ocean and europe lamb (1992) refers to a pattern similar to that in 1785 in reconstruction of pressure patterns for the summer of 1816 over the atlantic ocean and western europe. broad zonal flow north of 40°n to 50°n in the atlantic ocean is driven by broad low pressure from 50°n to 60n. this also agrees with alt, et al and ogilvie above. the increased pressure gradient between the (icelandic) low pressure to the north, which is displaced southward and sheared eastward from the normal position near greenland and the subtropical (bermuda) high to the south drives a reconstruction of upper-air circulation 114 strong flow from central and eastern north america across the atlantic over a flattened ridge. this would also force the north side of the subtropical (bermuda) high in the atlantic to be sheared eastward, increasing the advection of more moist maritime air into southern europe (figure 5). the implication for stronger surface winds in the ocean under the core of the flow is borne out by observations from ships of being “blown off the coast” and unable to make ports in north america before supplies ran out (bermuda gazette, 1785). fig. 5. reconstructed flow for july, 1816, after lamb. dashed lines inferred by lamb. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 115 high pressure in northern europe is larger in this flow, which , if present in 1785, may explain the very hot, dry summer in england (fowle's gazette, 1785), as well as conditions that are drier and warmer than normal in switzerland (pfister, 1978, 1992), and drought in finland (schove, 1954). the northern edge of the flow continues across northern europe, and then curves poleward, aided by a strong high pressure ridge in central asia. arctic air masses originating in central and eastern asia then follow the flow eastward and then northward, eventually crossing over the arctic, and completing the short-circuit cross-polar flow. a split in the flow from its southern edge into west-central asia is implied, with an eastward displacement of the subtropical high over the asian subcontinent supplying the moisture for storm tracks to the east. northern europe, under the influence of cooler and moist air transported rapidly across the north atlantic ocean could be expected to be cooler, on average, with similar variability as that which is noted in the northeastern part of north america. the average temperatures as reconstructed for three stations in central england, uppsala, sweden, and de bilt, the netherlands, do indicate that a cooling period began by 1780, reaching a minimum in 1785 (moberg, 1996). wood (1992) notes that average january temperatures for six european cities (stockholm, copenhagen, edinburgh, berlin, geneva and vienna) are below the 31-year normal in 1780 and 1781, above normal for 1782 and 1783, well below normal (greater than 1 ) for 1784, and near normal for 1785 and 1786. the dry summer in england and cooler july readings in western and northern europe can be explained by the presence of a persistent high pressure ridge over britain and the baltic, the eastern side of which allows cold advection into europe proper. further south and east in europe, the general cooling noted above for the decade is seen in tree ring studies from the alps and tatra mountains (bednarz and trepinska, 1992). the general cooling is evident through the decade of the 1780s, and is most likely the result of summer outbreaks of the cold air on the eastern side of the high pressure ridge over britain and the baltic before its return northward in eastern europe. the sensitivity to increased variation as well as a more pronounced cooling trend is evident more in the tatra mountains than in the alps, implying that the tatras in poland are closer to the edge of the flow, and thus closer to the edge of the polar front. switzerland and central europe remain under the influence of the expanded continental high and implied upper ridge. dendroclimatic reconstructions from tree ring widths in southwestern europe and northwestern africa for the 1780s (serre-bachet et al, 1992) help to define the southern stream of the split flow, south of the rex block, from the eastern atlantic ocean. reconstructions of the temperature for eastern france and rome indicate cooling, which would support a cold flow from off the eastern side of the northern european ridge. precipitation records do not extend from the present back to 1785. serre-bachet, et al also analyzed reconstructions of temperature at four grid points on the jones (jones et al., 1985) network. for 1785, the english channel grid point (50°n, 0°w) shows little variation from normal, although colder temperatures are indicated in the ensuing decade. the mediterranean grid point (40°n, 10°e) shows a 7-year cooling trend is already underway, reaching a minimum in 1785. the grid point in southern poland (50°n, 20°e), shows rapid cooling over a 6-year period, while the grid point in eastern coastal spain (40°n, 0°w) is near the maximum of a 12-year rise which peaks in 1783. it is evident from the tree ring studies in the tatra mountains above that the cooler flow in poland can be supported. the english channel area, away from both the northern and southern branches of the split flow, is less affected by anomalous conditions, which is consistent with a ridge overhead. precipitation data from morocco, which is the lowest (driest) in the record reconstruction of upper-air circulation 116 from 1500-1975, and the warmer temperatures in spain could support either the eastward displacement of the subtropical high or, more likely, of an african ridge extending northward and westward. in either case, a strong flow across the atlantic, curving both north and south of britain, can be inferred. india and asia in india, regular weather observations do not commence until 1792, but wheat prices in delhi (roy, 1972) do show a marked increase in 1782 and 1783. the immediate cause may be tied to enso activity and a failed monsoon. this might be affiliated with a northern hemispheric circulation anomaly, in that a reduced flow from the west, part of which has turned poleward, might allow a stronger high and ridge to develop over the indian subcontinent. a split in the flow would be implied. however, an eastward migration of the monsoon, causing the spike in wheat prices would be consistent with both an el niño event and the eastward displacement of other pressure systems in eastern africa. there is no corresponding anomaly in wheat prices in 18101820 (pant, et al, 1992). a split flow can be inferred from ion-concentration studies of gisp-2 ice cores (meeker and mayewski, 2002). they constructed sea level pressure anomalies for winter (december, january and february) and spring (march, april and may) during the little ice age (lia) (1400's to 1800's c.e. in this study) from a proxy series extending back 1400 years bp. results do show reduced pressure across the north atlantic and into south central asia during the lia. this would support both a southern split from the cross-polar flow and an eastward migration of high pressure systems over the indian sub-continent. in a very broad sense, borisenkov (1992), using documentary evidence, finds that the 30year seasonal averages in mid-russia show little difference from normal for the autumn, winter, and spring, but higher than normal readings for the 1780-1800 period. this nearly 1°c anomaly is only slightly lower than that reconstructed for the 1800-1830 period, which is the highest in the entire 1501-1900 record. warmer conditions in the summer would be consistent with the prevalence of continental air masses that may be advected northward in the cross-polar flow, modifying (cooling) over the pole, and then arriving in north america as cold outbreaks in summer. china, japan and the pacific ocean generally wetter weather in eastern china can be noted at nanjing and suzhou in 1785 from the qing yu lu or the clear and rain records (wang and zhang, 1992). references to the year 1816 indicate severe flooding in eastern china as well, as a result of an eastward retreat of the subtropical high, (huang jiayou, 1992). the yangtze and yellow river basins would be affected in both cases, and a parallel might be drawn to the 1780s. however, in 1816, the polar front in japan shows no change from normal, and, in fact, the summer was warmer and longer than normal, implying a more prevalent meridional flow (tsukamura, 1992). in 1785, increased zonal flow and eastward migration of regular pressure patterns, including the displaced monsoonal flow over india, is already assumed. the increased rain in 1785 may have come from tropical cyclones hitting land further south than normal. polar air masses from central asia would be steered towards the pole in a cross-polar flow, prior to arriving at the east asian coast. continuing in the cross-polar flow, these history of meteorology 2 (2005) 117 continental air masses would be directed southward from the arctic, and become the source for the notable cold outbreaks in eastern north america. any expansion of cold air masses in asia in the summer, however, might affect japan, which is on the eastern edge of this flow. this would be expected to be found in cooler summer conditions, without any attendant increase in storminess. in fact, during the 1780s, and from 1783-1785 in particular, japan did suffer extraordinarily cool and wet summers, leading to famine conditions from poor rice harvests (mikami and tsukamura, 1992). lake suwa, japan, froze 22 days earlier than the decadal average, which is earlier than any other year in the series from 1772 to 1794 (wood, 1992). the fact that there is evidence for zonal flow in eastern asia and japan in 1785 would also point to a more sensitive response somewhere in the western part of north america. a strong zonal flow over the northern pacific, unlike the meridional flow established for the decade of 1810-1820 above, could be then be responsible for the signal from high rocky mountain trees in the southwestern canadian study cited above (lough, 1992, luckman and colenutt, 1992). this does not preclude a quasi-meridional flow over a flattened ridge in the pacific, similar to that in the atlantic, but does imply an onshore flow from the west in the canadian rockies. thus, the circulation pattern of the entire northern hemisphere can be outlined, showing the “short-circuit” cross-polar flow, excluding those areas which would not be directly affected, such as southeastern asia westward to the indian ocean. the efficiency with which this flow can drive polar outbreaks from the continental source regions of east and central asia, the arctic, and northern canada, eventually arriving in northeastern north america, then appears viable. tropics and southern hemisphere evidence of a more pronounced zonal flow across the pacific ocean at lower tropical latitudes might be found in the increased total particulate deposition and decreased 18 o values in the quelccaya ice cap in peru. this is observed for the first half of the decade, with maxima at 1783-1785 (thompson and mosley-thompson, 1986). in the southern hemisphere, data are sparse, but tree studies of sub-tropical to sub-antarctic species in south america (villalba and boninsega, 1992) do show decreased temperature, perhaps in response to the laki-asama events, after 1783 at 37-39° south latitude for a one year period, very little, if any response at 41° south latitude, and a pronounced response three to seven years later at 54° south latitude. it would appear that more data and research are required to identify the propagation of a signal through the prevailing westerlies in the stronger global circulation pattern in the southern hemisphere. enso effects quinn's (1983b) research does indicate an amplification of anomalous patterns when enso and volcanic events occur simultaneously. with the results below, combined with the disconnect from the main flow noted above, it is much more reasonable to assume that the crosspolar flow would exist with little direct connection to enso activity. the years preceding 1785 did show increased enso activity, with which with many weather events worldwide can be associated. deficient floods in the nile river are associated with enso activity 80.3% of the time from the mid-1500's to today (quinn, 1993a), and in strong events, the correlation is higher. record drought in chile, a characteristic of little ice age climate patterns (quinn and neal, reconstruction of upper-air circulation 118 1992), is in evidence through the beginning of the 1780s. the drought conditions are broken only by the very strong enso event of 1782-1784. another established teleconnection with el niño and the northeast is a warmer winter (united states dept. of commerce, 2002). as this was certainly not the case in 1785, this can give more weight to the strength and persistence of the cross-polar flow. additional teleconnections associated with el niño activity include drought in eastern and northern australia, an east monsoon drought over indonesia, and drought in northeast brazil. quinn has found that southern california also experiences higher rainfall during el niño years about 87% of the time (quinn, 1993a). these effects, although expected, could not be proved or disproved with the data used in this paper. there is a general suppression of tropical storm activity in both the atlantic and pacific ocean during el niño years (dong, 1988, gray and schaeffer, 1991, o'brien, et al, 1996). this reduction in the number of storms does not preclude hurricane development. in fact, one might expect to find fewer, stronger and faster moving storms due to the more vigorous steering currents at upper levels of the atmosphere, and the larger temperature gradient between the colder-than-normal ocean waters to the north and the warm tropics. dixon points out that there are fewer hurricanes in an el niño year, yet the frequency of landfall of those that do occur in an el niño year is slightly higher (dixon, 1996). in summary, the climatic conditions associated with the very strong (vs) el niño of 1782-1784 and the moderate (m+) event of 1785-1786, can help to develop the picture of northern hemispheric circulation in 1785. the tropics and areas affected directly by the el niño appear to behave independently of the high latitude westerlies and cross-polar flow, exhibiting the hallmarks of a cooler climatic regime resembling the little ice age. this reconstruction, with the apparent disconnection between the cross-polar flow and tropical southeast asia, raises an interesting question for future research: did the eastern displacement of the pressure and wind systems from the indian ocean to eastern asia allow the polar cell to drift toward north america and the atlantic ocean, or was the preferential movement of the polar cell to those areas the forcing factor? figure 6 represents the reconstructed complete short-circuit cross-polar flow for 1785, c.e. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 119 fig. 6. reconstructed short-circuit cross-polar flow for 1785, c.e. reconstruction of upper-air circulation 120 references alt, b.t., 1987. developing synoptic analogues for extreme mass balance conditions on queen elizabeth island ice caps. j. climate appl. meteorol. 26 (12), 1605-1623. alt, b.t., r. m. koerner, d. a. fisher and j. c. bourgeois, 1985. arctic climate during the franklin era as deduced from ice cores, the franklin era in canadian arctic history, pat sutherland, ed. natural museum of man, mercury series, archaeological survey of canada paper 131, 69-92. alt, bea taylor, davis a. fisher and roy m. koerner, 1992, climatic conditions for the period surrounding the tambora signal in ice cores from the canadian high arctic islands, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 309-327. baron, william r., and geoffrey a. gordon, 1985, a reconstruction of new england climate using historical materials, syllogeus 55, climate change in canada 5, critical periods in the quaternary climatic history of northern north america, c.r. harington, ed., national museum of natural sciences, national museums of canada, ottawa. bednarz, zdzislaw and janina trepinska, 1992, climatic conditions of 1815 and 1816 from tree-ring analysis in the tatra mountains, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 418-421. bermuda gazette and general advertiser, 1785-1786. archives of the bermuda historical society, hamilton, bermuda. bergthorrsen, p., 1969. an estimate of drift ice and temperature in 1000 years, jokull 19, 94-101 borisenkov, e. p., 1992. documentary evidence from the u.s.s.r., in bradley and jones, eds., climate since a.d. 1500, 171-183. bradley, r.s. and p.d. jones, eds., 1992. climate since a.d. 1500. routledge, london. crowe, r. b., 1992. expansion of toronto temperature time-series from 1840 to 1778 using various united states and other data, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 145161. dong, k., 1988. el nino and tropical cyclone frequency in the australian region and the northwest pacific, australian meteorl. mag. 36, 219-226. fayle, david c., catherine v. bentley and peter a. scott, 1992. how did treeline white spruce at churchill, manitoba respond to conditions around 1816? in harington, ed., year without a summer, 281-290. flohn, h., 1969. ein geophysikalisches eiszeit-modell, eiszeitalter und gegenwart 20, 204-231, ohringen/wurtt. fowle’s new hampshire gazette and general advertiser, 1785. athenaeum library, portsmouth, new hampshire. fritts, h.c., and x.m. shao, 1992. mapping climate using tree-rings from western north america, in bradley and jones, eds., climate since a.d. 1500, 269-295. gray, william m. and john d. schaeffer, 1991. el nino and qbo influences on tropical cyclone activity, in glantz,, katz, and nicholls, eds., teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies, cambridge university press, 535 p. harington, c.r., ed. 1992. the year without a summer, world climate in 1816. canadian museum of nature, ottawa, canada. huang jiayou, 1992. was there a colder summer in china in 1816?, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 448-451. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 121 jones, p.d., s.c.b. raper, b.d. santer, b.s.g. cherry, c. goodess, r.s. bradley, h.f. diaz, p.m. kelly and t.m.l. wigley, 1985. a grid point surface air temperature data set for the northern hemisphere, 1851-1984. doe technical report tr022. u.s. dept. of energy, carbon dioxide research division, washington, dc. kington, john, 1992. weather patterns over europe in 1816, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 358-371. lamb, h. h., 1972. climate: present, past and future, vol. 1, fundamentals and climate now, methuen & co., london, 613 p. lamb, h. h., 1977. climate: present, past and future, vol. 2, climatic history and the future, methuen & co., ltd., london, 835 p. lamb, hubert h., 1992. first essay at reconstructing the general atmospheric circulation in 1816 and the early nineteenth century, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 355357. lough, j. m., 1992. climate in 1816 and 1811-1820 as reconstructed from western north american tree-ring chronologies, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 97-114. luckman, b. h., and m. e. colenutt, 1992. early nineteenth-century tree-ring series from treeline sites in the middle canadian rockies, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 266-280. mcnally, louis k iii, 1994. application of forensic synoptic analysis techniques for extraction and reconstruction of meteorological information from a non-homogeneous qualitative data set, ms thesis, university of maine, orono, 90 p. mcnally, louis k, iii, 2004. the weather of 1785: an interdisciplinary approach to meteorological reconstruction using forensic synoptic analysis, ph.d. dissertation, university of maine, orono, maine. meeker, loren d., and paul a. mayewski, 2002. a 1400-year high-resolution record of atmospheric circulation over the north atlantic and asia, the holocene 12, 257-266. mikami, t., and yasufumi tsukamura, 1992. the climate of japan in 1816 as compared with and extremely cool summer climate in 1783, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 462-476. moberg, anders, 1996. temperature variations in sweden since the 18th century, avhandling/dissertation no. 5, naturgeografiska institutionen, stockholms universitet. o’brien, j., t. s. richards and a. c. davis, 1996. the effect of el nino on u.s. landfalling hurricanes, bull. amer. meteorol. soc. 77 (4), 773-774. ogilvie, a.e.j., 1981. climate and society in iceland from the medieval period to the late 18 th century. ph.d. dissertation, university of east anglia, norwich, u.k. ogilvie, a.e.j., 1984a. the past climate and sea-ice record from iceland, part 1: data to a.d. 1780. climatic change 6, 131-152. pant, g.b., b. parthasarathy, and n.a. sontakke, 1992. climate over india during the first quarter of the nineteenth century, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 429-435. pfister, c., 1978. fluctuations in the duration of snow cover in switzerland since the late17 th century. danish meteorological institute, climatological papers 4, 1-6. pfister, c., 1992. monthly temperature and precipitation in central europe 1525-1979: quantifying documentary evidence on weather and its effects, in bradley and jones, eds., climate since a.d. 1500, 118-142. quinn william h., 1993a. the large scale enso event, the el nino and other important regional features, bull. inst. fr. etudes andines 22 (1), 13-34. reconstruction of upper-air circulation 122 quinn, w. h. and v. t. neal, 1983. recent climatic change and the 1982-1983 el nino. proceedings of the eighth climate diagnostics workshop, canadian climate center, toronto, ontario, canada. quinn, w. h. and v. t. neal, 1992. the historical record of el nino events, in bradley and jones, eds., climate since a.d. 1500, 623-648. quinn, william h. and victor t. neal, 1983b. recent climatic change and the 1982-1983 el nino, proceedings of the eighth climate diagnostics workshop, october 17-21, 1983, canadian climate centre, toronto, ontario, canada. roy, s., 1972. a rare document on delhi wheat prices 1763-1835. indian econ. and soc. hist. rev. 9 (1), 91-99. schove, d. j., 1954. summer temperatures and tree rings in north scandinavia, a.d. 1461-1950. geografiska ann. 37, 40-80. serre-bachet, f., j. guiot and l. tessier, 1992. dendroclimatic evidence from southwestern europe and northwestern africa, in bradley and jones, eds., climate since a.d. 1500, 349-365. thompson, lonnie g. and ellen mosley-thompson, 1986. evidence for changes in climate and environment in 1816 as recorded in the ice cores from the quelccaya ice cap, peru, the dunde ice cap, china and siple station, antarctica, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 479-492. tsukamura, yasufumi, 1992. the reconstructed position of the polar frontal zone around japan in the summer of 1816, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 453-461. u. s. department of commerce, 2002. usdoc/noaa/pmep/tao/el nino, http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/gif/summer_winter1-nns.gif. villalba, ricardo and jose a. boninsega, 1992. changes in south american tree-ring chronologies following major volcanic eruptions between 1750 and 1970, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 493-509. wang, p.k., and d. zhang, 1992. reconstruction of 18 th century summer precipitation of nanjing, suzhou, and hangzhou, china, based on the clear and rain records, in bradley and jones, eds., climate since a.d. 1500, 184-209. wexler, h., 1956. variations in insolation, atmospheric circulation and climate, tellus 8, 480-94. wood, charles a., 1992. climatic effects of the 1783 laki eruption, in harington, ed., year without a summer, 58-77. corresponding author marlon zhu, academia sinica, marlon@ntu.edu.tw media, typhoons, and contests over meteorological sovereignty in nineteenth-century east asia marlon zhu cross-boundary media and meteorological science in treaty-port china nowadays most of us know about scientific controversies such as global warming or genetically modified organisms (gmos), through the media. researchers have found that media has played a major role in setting the agenda when it comes to defining society’s most important environmental and scientific questions.1 back in the nineteenth century, newspapers played a similar role, framing questions about science and the environment for their readers. when it came to questions about weather and meteorology, typhoon warnings published in east asia’s english-language newspapers influenced the thinking and actions of merchants who operated along the china coast. but unlike contemporary media, which is so strongly tied to national contexts, this colonial media operated in a more heterogeneous, trans-national context. english-language newspapers from hong kong and shanghai, which mainly served foreign anglophone (non-chinese) merchant communities, alerted their readers to the dangers of typhoons and, in the process, drew attention to questions about the accuracy of meteorological reports issued by observatories in multiple countries. the rise of modern meteorology was facilitated by improvements in various communication technologies. the telegraph in particular was the key to the rise of the “synoptic method” of meteorology in the second half of the nineteenth century. the synoptic method was enabled by the collation of standardized weather data transmitted by telegraphic communication across enormous distances, the making of weather maps, the analysis and prediction of upcoming weather phenomena, and, finally, the broadcasting of “diagnoses” through the media. synoptic forecasting relied upon a network of observers who worked within national or international institutions.2 in nineteenth-century east asia, there were no national meteorological networks, but rather a heterogeneous mixture of practitioners working to 1 maxwell t. boykoff, who speaks for the climate? making sense of media reporting on climate change (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2011). 2 for instance, in the united states, the army signal corps established the first government telegraphic network for meteorology in 1870, which was the forerunner of the us weather bureau. european countries also employed the telegraph in weather forecasts, following the us model. see james rodger fleming, meteorology in america, 1800–1870 (baltimore: johns hopkins university press, 1990), 141–62. mailto:marlon@ntu.edu.tw history of meteorology 9 (2020) 2 analyze the weather in locations under the control of both colonial and semi-colonial regimes. this informal network can be seen as a part of the “informal empire” that exerted paramount influence upon local politics and economy in east asia at this time.3 this article examines the way in which communications related to meteorology crossed national and international boundaries, undermining imperial and colonial claims to monopolies on weather forecasting. in addition to the telegraph, newspapers, especially english-language ones, printed weather predictions, serving as another communication technology that challenged the imperial monopoly on weather forecasting. the anglophone press, such as the china mail in british colonial hong kong and the north china herald in treaty-port shanghai were published since the mid-nineteenth century and circulated beyond their publishing entrepôts. simon j. potter has argued that in the last three decades of the century, there constituted a british “imperial press system” that corresponded to the worldwide circulation of knowledge, personnel, and money.4 in the “far east,” this imperial publication system featured meteorological information. the circulation of typhoon warnings involved the exchange of information via newspapers from hong kong, shanghai, manila, and other port towns along the typhoon corridor.5 observatories in hong kong, shanghai, and manila engaged with these media outlets by sending them weather information related to shipping risks. the state-sponsored collection of telegraphic weather data in euro-american countries began in the 1860s.6 this process led to the creation of meteorological “sovereignties” as states standardized protocols of observation and monopolized forecasting within their territories. the synoptic method necessitated a head meteorological official, who was responsible for maintaining observation networks and overseeing the circulation of information. in contrast to this state-run system, the china coasts featured a private system of data gathering, organized through institutions within britain’s informal empire. the system was initiated in shanghai in 1881 by the foreign mercantile community. the shanghai chamber of commerce asked a jesuit observatory operated by french fathers to act as the head office for weather datacollecting and typhoon warnings in the region. the chamber promised to raise funding for the scheme in the first few years. meanwhile, the foreign-staffed maritime customs service, one of the institutions that exemplified britain’s informal empire in china, was asked to provide the head office in shanghai with standardized observation data gathered from their stations and lighthouses.7 this private effort to establish a head observatory in shanghai had long-term ramifications for meteorology in china. the zikawei observatory, as it was called, served as the country’s de facto central observatory until the post-world war ii era. 3 the concept of “informal empire” comes from c. r. fay in “the movement towards free trade, 1820–1853,” the cambridge history of the british empire, vol.2 (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1940, 1968), 388–414. it was conceptualized by john gallagher and ronald e. robinson in “the imperialism of free trade, 1815–1914,” economic history review 6 (1953): 1–15. for further discussion of this concept in the east asian context, see fa-ti fan, british naturalists in qing china: science, empire, and cultural encounter (cambridge: harvard university press, 2004), 62–64 and 72–75. 4 simon j. porter, news and the british world: the emergence of an imperial press system, 1876–1922 (oxford: clarendon press, 2003); simon j. potter, “webs, networks, and systems: globalization and the mass media in the nineteenthand twentieth-century british empire,” the journal of british studies 46, no. 3 (2007): 621–46. 5 this sphere of public communication regarding typhoons extended to singapore, which was located outside the typhoon region, but whose ship traffic was certainly affected by typhoons. 6 a comprehensive list of meteorological services and institutions in european countries and the united states can be found in katherine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: chicago university press, 2005), 44–45. 7 for a recent analysis of the chinese imperial maritime customs, see hans van de ven, breaking with the past: the maritime customs service and the global origins of modernity in china (new york: columbia university press, 2014). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 3 the intervention of british imperial meteorology in hong kong the british colonial government established the hong kong observatory shortly after the launch of the zikawei observatory in shanghai. during this period, a letter soliciting funds for the shanghai observatory reached an agent of lloyd’s of london in shanghai, who forwarded it to lloyd’s of london headquarters. receiving this message, sir henry m. hozier, secretary of lloyd’s and later father-in-law of sir winston churchill, refused to fund the shanghai scheme. instead, on 6 march 1882, he forwarded the message to the british meteorological office. thereafter, the british government inaugurated a new policy for meteorology in its empire in east asia.8 this policy established a new official observatory in hong kong and made it the head observatory for the british government in china.9 from the very beginning, the shanghai initiative also caught the eye of the english press in shanghai and hong kong. these newspapers along the china coasts originated in mercantile zeal and were highly sensitive to issues of navigation safety which was essential to the bustling trade.10 typhoons and their alleged damage to vessels at sea were common topics in newspaper columns almost every typhoon season, even if the typhoons caused little or no damage on land. the press, along with the insurance and shipping industries, which comprised a large portion of the newspapers’ advertising business, valued efforts to improve maritime security. the mercantile media’s desire for typhoon warnings framed the work of both the zikawei and hong kong observatories. it also made the imperial or national intention to monopolize weather messages less relevant to public concern. before the establishment of the shanghai and hong kong observatories, a telegraphic connection to the philippines from hong kong had been finished in 1880. this brought the manila observatory to the attention of media outlets located in coastal cities in china. figure 1 shows the timing of the establishment of each observatory and their directors. the observatory in manila was established by spanish jesuit fathers. as typhoons usually originated in the philippine sea, the manila observatory was on the front lines of weather monitoring and was expected to forward timely typhoon warnings to hong kong and the china coast. in addition, the observatories provided chronometric, astronomical, seismological, and magnetic services and observations. but in a society dominated by “mercantile marine” interests, the importance of typhoon warnings overshadowed and even overwhelmed other tasks. the jesuit directors of the shanghai and manila observatories recognized this need more than their colleagues in hong kong. dr. william doberck was particularly involved in highlighting the entangled relationship between the press and weather reporters of these observatories in the typhoon region in this period. doberck, a dane with a doctorate in astronomy from germany’s jena university, was the first director of the british government’s new observatory in hong kong. his directorship gave him an official stature on par with the directors of the shanghai and manila observatories. but due to the tendency of each 8 henry hozier to the secretary of the (british) meteorological office, 6 march 1882, correspondence and papers related to the establishment and operation of the royal hong kong observatory, 1882–1912, hkrs356 1-1(1), no. 2, in the hong kong public record office. 9 this lloyd’s initiative for the shanghai observatory was not mentioned in p. kevin mackeown’s account for the beginning of the hong kong observatory. see his early china coast meteorology: the role of hong kong (hong kong: hong kong university press, 2010). 10 for a detailed introduction to these newspapers, see frank h. h. king and prescott clarke, eds., a research guide to chinacoast newspapers, 1822–1911 (cambridge, ma: harvard university press, 1965) and prescott clarke, “the development of the english-language press on the china coast, 1827–1881,” (ma diss., soas, university of london, 1961). history of meteorology 9 (2020) 4 observatory to consider itself the “central” one in east asia, dr. doberck’s relationship with the other directors was characterized more by rivalry than by cooperation. fig 1. directors of the shanghai, hong kong, and manila observatories from their inauguration to the 1920s. source: created by the author. fig 2. dr. william doberck’s pamphlet published by the chinese imperial maritime customs. source: arl chinese center, the publications of chinese maritime customs, washington, d.c.: centre for chinese research materials, association of research libraries, 1970, microfilm reel no. 94. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 5 before dr. doberck’s arrival in hong kong in 1883, the president of the british royal society had described him as “a very scientific man”.11 however, this compliment was apparently not shared by hong kong’s “ratepayers”, who held major interests in the shipping and trading industries. after his arrival, dr. doberck became tangled in a series of disputes, some with his scientific confrères in other nearby port cites. these disputes were due not to doberck’s cantankerous personality, but to competition with the shanghai-based meteorological organization launched two years earlier, in 1881.12 in what follows, i focus on his controversies with these typhoon forecasters outside of hong kong. these controversies are especially significant for what they reveal about the evolution of state sovereignty in the typhoon region. the exclusive territorial claims of each governmental meteorologist were in question, while the media intentionally carried typhoon warnings from various authorities. typhoon reports from different observatories were printed side-by-side in newspaper columns, allowing readers who were themselves seafarers or who were in the seaborne merchant business to determine the accuracy of the data from each respective observatory based upon the actual journeys of every ship and vessel. these mercantile users thus not only acted as sponsors and spectators of the observatories’ weather services; they were also present for the emerging rivalry between the observatories and acted as juries in subsequent disputes between them. most importantly, in the early synoptic age, they also provided marine data to the respective observatories. tension between a meteorological monopoly and the circulation of weather messages among ports from the very beginning of the communication between the hong kong and manila observatories, manila provided information and forecasts about typhoons. the manila jesuits distributed these forecasts to the hong kong press via the spanish consul in hong kong. rather than seeing these warnings and forecasts as signs of friendly reciprocity from one port city to another, doberck viewed them with suspicion and doubt. they were an annoyance, even a nightmare, for the meteorological “reporter-in-chief” in the british colony. dr. doberck made every effort to ignore them. two major newspapers in hong kong soon reported astonishment at doberck’s attitude towards his scientific peers at manila and his neglect of their typhoon warnings. for instance, in the autumn of 1886, the spanish consul in hong kong (m. c. ribera) received a typhoon warning from manila and forwarded it to the china mail. the telegram read: “a typhoon is raging to the n.e. of luzon. it appears to be travelling towards the n.n.w. it is moving slowly. if it changes direction advice will be given”.13 doberck ignored the message and in his weather report for the following day, he made no mention of the typhoon.14 the china mail criticized his attitude: “now, although this telegraphic message deals with a storm which is most unlikely to touch or affect this island, it nevertheless conveys a piece of intelligence which is most important to know, and which may materially affect the movements of ships here and at the 11 william spottiswoode, president of the royal society, 1878–1883, to the colonial office, robert g. w. herbert, 8 december 1882, british colonial office file, co 129/206, 209. 12 marlon zhu, “typhoons, meteorological intelligence, and the inter-port mercantile community in nineteenth-century china” (phd diss., binghamton university, state university of new york, 2012). 13 “approaching typhoon,” china mail, 7 september 1886, 2. 14 china mail, 8 september 1886, 4. the paper’s daily column, the “china coast meteorological register,” doberck’s usual channel for issuing his warnings in the press, noted: “the barometer has risen and gradients are slight for s.w. winds in the south. the temperature is moderate, the air unusually dry, and the weather fine”. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 6 coast ports”. the newspaper noted that this was not the first time dr. doberck had ignored the manila telegrams. his seemed deliberate ignorance was observed by the press as a “matter of common remark” by which such information from manila usually did “not find its way to the public”.15 the editor continued to remind readers of the hong kong observatory’s raison d’être. in his opinion, the observatory was a center for a “grand combination of storm-warnings”. nevertheless, the realization of its mission was, the editor lamented, threatened by doberck’s indifferent attitude toward the manila telegrams: the friends of dr. doberck, we believe, set down that learned official scientist as a most exceedingly illused gentleman, because his learned brethren and collaborators in science at shanghai, manila and elsewhere fail in those friendly and mutually-beneficial courtesies necessary to the prosecution of systematic meteorology and the prophesying of storms. on the other hand, the worthy doctor is by others asserted to have got all his brethren both in and out of the colony by the ears. our astronomer, indeed, is freely spoken of as a veritable storm king, and that it is perfectly reasonable and safe to predict a storm, official or scientific, upon his approach . . . a general impression exists that no reciprocity exists worthy of the name.16 such comments on the apparent lack of courteous reciprocity between doberck and forecasters in manila and shanghai became a frequent topic of discussion in the hong kong newspapers. even to the very end of doberck’s directorship in 1906, the hong kong press used words such as “glorious isolation” sarcastically to criticize the situation that resulted from doberck’s temperament.17 further criticisms culminated in the “manila incident of 1899”, in which the manila jesuits directly confronted doberck. doberck usually had to fight with jesuits on two fronts to maintain his monopoly on weather messages: manila in the south, where typhoon warnings earlier than hong kong often originated, and shanghai in the north, where the jesuit observatory claimed to be china’s central observatory. the quarrels always focused on the prediction of typhoons. different and sometimes conflicting “diagnoses” of typhoons were juxtaposed publicly in the press. the typhoon season of 1884, the first year of the hong kong observatory, witnessed such confrontation, with different weather information coming from different authorities. one letter to the editor of the hong kong daily press, another major english-language daily, pointed out that the jesuit directors of the observatories in both manila and shanghai had furnished the hong kong public “much fuller information” than doberck regarding a typhoon that had just hit hong kong.18 general readers of the papers thus had an easy time determining which source of information was more reliable amid the ongoing rivalry between doberck and his counterparts; but for those who had a stake in shipping interests, being greatly affected by typhoons, were heavily involved in debates over meteorological information, and some even tested the accuracy of such information in person on the open seas. to them, it was a matter of dead or alive. a trial of trust: the manila controversy of 1899 the rivalry between dr. doberck and the jesuits was most intense in late 1898 and early 1899. at this time, the united states had just defeated spain in war and had imposed its rule over the philippines. on 5 november 1898, dr. doberck addressed a letter to dr. willis 15 editorial, china mail, 8 september 1886, 2. 16 ibid. 17 editorial, daily press, 26 september 1906, 2. 18 “nubes,” “correspondence: typhoon notes,” daily press, 16 september 1884, 2. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 7 l. moore, chief of the weather bureau in washington dc, asking the us authorities in the philippines to stop the jesuit fathers of the manila observatory from transmitting weather telegrams from manila to hong kong.19 the us authorities adopted doberck’s suggestion and the transmission of weather telegrams from manila ceased on 27 february 1899.20 the jesuit fathers in manila responded angrily to doberck’s action. father jose algué, who succeeded founding director frederico faura as head of the manila observatory, found out about doberck’s letter to moore. after the official prohibition of telegrams, algué reached out to authorities in manila and hong kong for assistance. in a letter to the us provost marshal general of manila, algué argued that the prohibition, which he himself was willing to obey, would “make a sad impression upon the british naval and civil authorities of hong kong, and upon the naval and commercial institutions of any nationality in the far east”.21 algué clearly sought to isolate doberck. algué wrote: nevertheless, we desire to have it known, that the same provision is based upon biased and incorrect information, of one single director of the hong kong observatory, who alone, of all other directors of the observatories in the far east, is hostile to meteorological institution at manila, the reputation of which he has been trying to impugn, ever since the year 1884; and now that he has brought the question before the department of agriculture of the u.s., we earnestly beg the american authorities, here and in washington, to inquire thoroughly into this matter. later on, we shall prove the efficiency of our meteorological department, but meanwhile, we oppose to the assertions of the director of the observatory in hong kong the testimonials of a man, the most competent to appreciate the work done, at present, by the observatory at manila.22 algué’s writing suggests that doberck and the manila observatory developed tensions as early as 1884, during the first year of the hong kong observatory’s existence. in another letter to the editor in hong kong, algué accused doberck of writing to washington that “the observatory in manila, is in hands of men who possess very little scientific education” and that the “scandal is caused by our [manila’s] continually communicating sensational typhoon warnings to the newspapers in hong kong”.23 a duplicate copy of doberck’s letter kept in the public record office of hong kong, doberck did undermine the credibility of the manila observatory by saying “the municipal observatory in connection with the high school in manila,” and the “spanish priests, who possess very little scientific education.”24 in the following passages of the same paragraph in doberck’s letter, he was accusing manila committed plagiarism when they derived “much of the matter which they print from the publications, weather telegrams etc., issued from this observatory (hong kong), 19 william doberck to willis moore, 5 november, 1898, 20 the us weather bureau was at that time under the department of agriculture. thus, the official order was issued by the secretary of agriculture, transmitted via the secretary of war, and then sent to the provost marshal of manila (r. p. hughes). it suspended telegraphic typhoon warnings given by manila for any place outside the philippines. for the starting date of this prohibition, see china mail, 15 april 1899, 3. 21 jose algué to r. p. hughes, 7 march 1899, in china mail, 17 march 1899, 3. 22 ibid. 23 for algué’s letters from 7 march 1899 to the editors of the china mail and the hong kong telegraph, see china mail, 17 march 1899, 3; and “correspondence and papers relating to the hong kong observatory, 1891–1967,” hkrs842, 1-3, no. 28, in the hong kong public record office. 24 william doberck to willis moore, 5 november, 1898, “correspondence and papers relating to the hong kong observatory, 1891–1967,” hkrs842, 1-3, no. 33-1, in the hong kong public record office. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 8 without however in any way acknowledging their indebtedness to this observatory.”25 algué did not mention this accusation in his publicized responses. algué, for his part, misrepresented doberck’s accusations: the sole aim of the manila observatory is to be useful to the public at large, and especially to seamen, naval and mercantile, of every nationality, who are so often exposed to the dangers of typhoons in the far east. to this end, our observatory has worked for a great many years with a vast amount of labour and expenditure, and undoubtedly, in many instances disaster has been avoided owing to its timely warnings. but, if after all, the reputation achieved has been merely that of causing scandal by sensational typhoon warnings, that is a very discouraging result indeed.26 algué seemed to suggest that doberck was intent on besmirching the reputation of the manila observatory by linking its work with “scandal” and “sensational” forecasting. he reprinted parts of doberck’s confidential letter to moore to make his case. a review of the complete text of doberck’s letter, which can be found in the “correspondence and papers related to the establishment and operation of the royal hong kong observatory, 1882–1912”, kept by the hong kong public records office, does indeed show that doberck used such language. in that letter, the meaning of the “scandal” was explained as follows: scandal is caused by the spanish priests continually communicating sensational typhoon warnings through the spanish consul to the newspapers in hong kong. as it is against international regulations laid down for the guidance of meteorological authorities, for an authority in one country to issue stormwarnings in the district covered by an authority of another country, i would venture to suggest that you should recommend the american government of the philippines to put a stop to this irregularity”.27 doberck’s letter shows that he denounced the work of the jesuits in manila based upon the notion that international regulation allowed state authorities to maintain a monopoly over meteorology in their country—that is, to maintain “meteorological sovereignty”. as i will demonstrate later, these “international regulations” were the reason behind the us decision to end the transmission of manila’s warning telegrams to hong kong. algué’s letter appeared in the china mail on 17 march, arousing public condemnation of doberck in the following days. the editor of the china mail commented that doberck’s correspondence with washington was a “highhanded and arbitrary action”. on 20 march, the hong kong daily press commented that doberck’s letter constituted “a public misfortune”, and suggested that the prohibition might be rescinded through a joint petition made by “the insurance offices and shipping firms of hong kong”. the editor continued by mentioning the history of the connection between hong kong and manila in terms of weather information before the establishment of the hong kong observatory (hko), and described the hko was originated from mercantile need “on purely utilitarian grounds”. before the hko’s establishment, the hong kong mercantile public relied solely on manila for storm warnings and highly appreciated its information, as demonstrated by the voluntary subscriptions made to manila by insurance companies in hong kong. even in the hko’s first few years, the hong kong public remained dependent on the information provided from manila. owing to these considerations, the hong kong press claimed that the hong kong “public have regarded the 25 william doberck to willis moore, chief of the us weather bureau, 5 november 1898, in “correspondence and papers relating to the hong kong observatory, 1891-1967,” hong kong public record office, hkrs842, 1/3, no. 33. 26 jose algué to r. p. hughes, 7 march 1899, in china mail, 17 march 1899, 3. 27 doberck to moore, 5 november 1898. emphasis added. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 9 manila information and prognostications, as far as they went, with more confidence than our local forecasts”.28 the editor of the hong kong daily press was on algué’s side in confirming the mercantile community’s trust in the manila telegrams. he reiterated algué’s assessments of doberck. with regard to the claim that the manila directors had “very little” scientific education, the daily press asserted that the value of the directors’ scientific education was a matter of opinion. but the newspaper added that one should perhaps question “the value of the scientific education of the director of the hong kong observatory”.29 the editor thought that local opinion would probably be in favor of manila. he called out doberck’s transgression, noting that “the slur cast by one scientist upon rival scientists who have always excited his jealousy is more than ungenerous”.30 the hong kong press exonerated algué and the manila station in other ways. where doberck’s letter had claimed that “scandal is caused by the manila observatory continually communicating sensational typhoon warnings to the newspapers in hong kong”, the hong kong press asserted that this was “an absolute untruth”.31 obviously misguided by algué’s definition on what was “scandalous,” the daily press defended the manila warnings, as they always specified the position of the storms and were followed by subsequent telegrams tracing the course of the storms. none of them were sensational, as algué put in doberck’s mouth. the loyal hong kong press continued to absolve manila of wrongdoing, saying that: of the storms notified naturally only a limited proportion have struck hong kong, but it is unnecessary to dwell upon the value to shipping of early and accurate information regarding the existence of typhoons, whatever their direction may be. the information supplied from manila has been very accurate indeed, a statement which we think will be borne out by all who have carefully watched the typhoon movements.32 the editor of the daily press then concluded that the colony was under great obligation to the manila observatory, and whatever decision might be made concerning the communication of future storm warnings, steps should be taken to make amends to manila for the offensive conduct of the hko’s director. doberck’s attack, in the editor’s opinion, had already brought disgrace upon the government and the whole community. on 21 march 1899, an editorial in the china mail doubled down on the denunciations of doberck, stating that: “we were pleased to see the forcible and sensible remarks which appeared in the leader column of our morning contemporary yesterday concerning the attack made by the director of the hong kong observatory upon the kindred institution in manila”.33 and the china mail’s editor continued, saying that its columns had been useful more than a decade, in proving “the harm steadily and persistently done by dr. doberck, in alienating nearly every outside recorder of storm warnings, and the consequent isolation of the local observatory from all useful cooperation with similar institutions at sicawei (shanghai) and 28 editorial, the hong kong daily press, 20 march 1899, 2. 29 the hong kong press commented on doberck’s scientific education in astronomy, with a doctoral degree from a german university (jena), implying that he was not educated as a meteorologist. in fact, meteorology was not yet academically institutionalized in the nineteenth century and no degree in meteorology was granted. all the directors of the various observatories, including the jesuits, were originally trained as astronomers. 30 editorial, the hong kong daily press, 20 march 1899, 2. 31 ibid. 32 ibid. 33 editorial, the china mail, 21 march 1899, 2. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 10 manila”.34 the editor pointed out that this was not doberck’s first mistake. indeed, the china mail had already called upon three successive hong kong governors to deal with doberck’s “glorious isolation”, in order to prevent “absolute destruction of any little element of usefulness which was apparent at the kowloon observatory”.35 the reason for the regrettable situation was due to “the rude and insulting disposition of the head of that institution”. the hong kong newspapers thus served as a venue for litigating a case involving the public’s trust: that of doberck against his manila colleagues. while editors and readers seemed to side with manila, public opinion ignored the point about control over meteorological information that doberck had raised in his letter to us meteorological authorities. at issue was the meteorological sovereignty of british officials and the hko within british colonial territory, an issue which seemed to raise little concern in the inter-colonial press. “international courtesy” in meteorology and the case of the new york herald the controversy of 1899 taxed the time and energy of doberck and others who became involved in debating whether manila’s typhoon warnings were “sensational”. the issue occupied a great many lines in the hong kong government’s official minutes. however, the crucial reason why doberck asked washington to suspend manila’s telegrams was not the “sensational” nature of the warnings but rather state power, something that doberck later reiterated in his original explaining letter to the hong kong government regarding the manila incident.36 to cite doberck’s words, his request to moore was based in “international regulations”, which were laid down for the guidance of meteorological authorities. the regulations governed the situation for “an authority in one country to issue storm warnings in the district covered by an authority of another country”. whether the warnings were sensational or not was not doberck’s main concern. in his letter of 5 november 1898, doberck reminded officials in washington of a similar situation that had occurred between the united states and the united kingdoms, in which the us meteorological authorities “most courteously assisted the meteorological office in london to put a stop to the new york herald storm warnings, which interfered so materially with the work of the british meteorological authority”. the reason for this was, doberck noted, that the telegraphed american storm warnings “were doing harm” to the uk.37 when composing its warnings, the herald drew upon numerous sources of information, including data from ships arriving in new york after crossing the north atlantic and observations from on-shore stations. in addition to the data from the us army signal corps, the herald’s weather intelligence also came from british columbia, central america, and mexico.38 katherine 34 ibid. 35 the three successive governors were sir george f. bowen (march 1883 to october 1887), sir george w. des voeux (october 1887 to december 1891), and sir william robinson (december 1891 to november 1898). to be more specific, the hong kong observatory was built on mount elgin in kowloon, not on hong kong island; hence, the name “kowloon observatory” was used by doberck’s opponents and critics to disparage him and the observatory. 36 william doberck to the colonial secretary, 17 march 1899, in “correspondence and papers relating to the hong kong observatory, 1891-1967,” hong kong public record office, hkrs842, 1/3, no.33-8; and doberck to the colonial secretary, 21 march 1899, no.33-9; and doberck to the colonial secretary, 28 march 1899, no.28a. 37 william doberck to the colonial secretary, 17 march 1899, in “correspondence and papers relating to the hong kong observatory, 1891-1967,” hong kong public record office, hkrs842, 1/3, no.33. 38 the herald issued its first cross-atlantic warning on 14 february 1877. see jerome j. collins, “the american storm warnings,” nature 18, no. 444 (1878): 4–6; nature 18, no. 445 (1878): 31–34; nature 18, no. 446 (1878): 61–63. an example carried in the times of london (5 july 1877, 12) went: “the following cable dispatch has been received at the london office of the new york herald: ‘storm centre will arrive on british and french coasts probably 5th or 6th. north-east to south-west gales, rain, and lightning. warn out-bound vessels.’” history of meteorology 9 (2020) 11 anderson has observed that the herald’s storm warnings were a further blow to british pride in meteorology after a comparison of the scale of the two countries’ observation networks and the success rate of their predictions. the trans-atlantic warnings were gratefully publicized in europe and became, anderson has observed, somewhat humiliating for british meteorologists.39 facing the challenge of trans-national warning telegrams issued by the new york herald weather service, both british and us meteorological officers responded promptly. robert h. scott, the director of the british meteorological office, admired the public spirit of the new york herald’s proprietor and acknowledged that the american storm warnings had enjoyed an “undeniable popularity with the newspaper-reading public” in britain.40 however, scott also commented that the herald kept the mode of preparation of these telegraphic announcements, and the facts on which they were based, secret. and since these warnings of cross-atlantic storms were based solely on the conditions of weather prevailing in the united states, lacking of the observation made in the eastern atlantic side, “we are in a position to show that not a quarter of them could be correct”.41 scott then cited captain hoffmeyer, head of the danish meteorological service, who pointed out that the herald could only have predicted about one-fifth of the northwestern atlantic storms. the question of accuracy loomed large in these reviews of the trans-atlantic storm warnings. it was on this basis that scott considered the herald’s warnings unsatisfactory. he referred to cleveland abbe’s claim that only 17 percent of the american newspaper’s warning telegrams to europe were “quite right”. an additional 23 percent were only “partially right”, scott continued, and the remaining 60 percent were totally inaccurate. another review by scott himself in march 1878 showed a similar inaccuracy rate of 57.5 percent. meanwhile, scott noted that the herald itself touted its storm warnings as having a very high degree of accuracy, giving readers a false impression of its reliability in weather forecasting. “in one year at least 99 percent of success was claimed”, he wrote.42 however, an analysis by a different writer seemed to verify the accuracy of the herald’s warnings. out of a complete list of 27 warnings issued between 1 march and 30 september 1878, only one was counted as failure.43 thus, various methods of verification and validation contradicted one another. nevertheless, it was obvious to british authorities that the success rate of the newspaper’s predictions was low. almost twenty years later, when abbe reviewed reports from the herald’s weather service, he claimed that his demonstration of their very low rate of accuracy was “so widely distributed in england and so convincing that it soon became undesirable for the enterprising angloamerican newspaper to continue such work”.44 39 anderson, predicting the weather, 248–50. 40 robert h. scott, “forecasting the weather, ii,” good words 22 (1881): 565–70. in which scott noted the private effort of the public weather service by the proprietor of the new york herald, james gordon bennett (jr.). it was bennett who hired jerome j. collins as the scientific editor and the key figure in the herald’s enterprising weather service. collins wrote an introduction to the history and operation of this service in jerome j. collins, “the american storm warnings,” nature 18, no. 444 (1878): 4–6; nature 18, no. 445 (1878): 31–34; nature 18, no. 446 (1878): 61–63. 41 scott, “forecasting the weather, ii,” good words 22 (1881): 565–70. 42 robert h. scott, “forecasting the weather, ii,” good words 22 (1881): 565–70. 43 charles halford thompson, “american storm-warnings,” the gentleman’s magazine 245, no. 1787 (1879): 597–615. 44 cleveland abbe, “international courtesy,” monthly weather review 27, no. 4 (1899): 160–61. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 12 abbe later became one of dr. doberck’s few supporters in hong kong. to support moore’s decision to suspend the manila warnings, abbe wrote an article titled “international courtesy” in april 1899.45 his article coincided with the manila incident. in his piece, abbe addressed the “official” statement of the us meteorological authorities regarding the manila warning telegrams. the incident involving the new york herald served as a useful precedent, allowing abbe to defend the recent decision in washington. he wrote that it was “about 1878, when a private party in new york gave great offence to the british meteorological office, great scandal [the same phrase used by doberck] to practical meteorology, and great annoyance to the british public by frequent publication in england of storms about to arrive from america”.46 the new discourse of “international courtesy” used by meteorological authorities in the atlantic had spread to the south china sea. abbe recounted the actions taken by us meteorological authorities at that time. it was brigadier general albert james myer (1828–1880) of the chief signal office who took charge of the national weather service mandated by the us congress. according to abbe, general myer was obliged to explain that he, personally, had no authority in the matter of the new york herald’s weather reporting service in europe. myer stated that he could, of course, prevent the publication of unauthorized weather predictions within the united states, but not in great britain. however, as abbe recalled, “realizing that we might, as individuals, privately assist our colleagues in their dilemma, the editor made a quite careful examination of every prediction that had been published in this unofficial manner in england”.47 the difference between official and private weather services was emphasized, and a code of international courtesy and respect for “national” meteorology was bolstered by attacks on the accuracy of weather data coming from private sources. it was thus not surprising to see abbe, at the very beginning of his manifesto in support of a monopoly on weather forecasting by national weather services, responding to questions regarding the manila incident that had lately “excited so much public attention”. as he wrote, several times in the history of the [us] weather bureau, both under the secretary of war and the secretary of agriculture, it has happened that the bureau has found it necessary to adopt certain rules appropriate to the courteous intercourse of nations as equals. such rules may sometimes have seemed to make science subordinate and national honor supreme . . . the present question [of the manila incident] is not as to the study of storms, or the ability to predict them, but as to the right of issuing public predictions that may in any way bear the stamp of official authority . . .48 when introducing the jesuit weather service in manila, abbe called it “a voluntary stormwarning system” for both the philippines and the adjacent coasts of asia. the private service, abbe continued, originated in an inter-colonial situation in which “the french, german, english, spanish, and native authorities stood in such complex relations to each other that out of pure courtesy and conservatism, and because nobody else offered to do the work, they all allowed the voluntary work of the manila observatory to go on from year to year”. now that the spanish government had relinquished national rights in the philippines, the jesuits at the manila observatory were “loath to surrender their old-time privileges”. but, abbe proposed, it was the proper course of action that the us weather bureau abide by the protocols of international courtesy and suspend the transmission of typhoon warnings from manila in 45 ibid. 46 ibid. 47 ibid. 48 ibid. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 13 accordance with doberck’s request. “if the meteorologists at manila have anything to communicate relative to storms approaching china, japan, or colonial stations, such as hongkong”, he asked, “why can not the communication be sent, as a matter of international courtesy, to the meteorological offices of these places? why should not the latter bear the responsibility of giving proper local warnings? why should local papers and harbormasters circulate warnings from irresponsible parties?”.49 these points would probably have irritated the pro-manila, anti-doberck factions in hong kong because questions of life or death, not those of international courtesy, were their vital concern. at the end of abbe’s article, he warned that “[i]t is disastrous to science whenever one man or one institution overrides, absorbs, or destroys the honest work of his neighbors. ‘cooperation and not monopoly,’ is the only principle that can lead to success in the study and practice of meteorology”. this was ironically the very opinion of doberck’s opponents, the anxious and furious inter-port mercantile community and the media who had hoped to continue to receive meteorological reports from manila. conclusion: state meteorology in the market and the accountability of science the controversies between dr. doberck and his peer observers at the turn of the century are significant from several perspectives. in practice, the development of synoptic meteorology in the nineteenth century, which needed a head observatory to oversee the collection of standardized weather data from across vast distances, usually occurred within nation boundaries. the hong kong observatory was the central british observatory, if not in all of china (as it was initially designated to be), then at least in the colony. according to the discourse of “international courtesy”, the observatory had a right and a responsibility to claim meteorological sovereignty over the territory, just as british meteorological authorities had claimed in the new york herald case. along the china coast, however, jesuit weather observers in the philippines challenged the authority vested in the weather service by the british colonial state. it was dr. doberck’s misfortune that the jesuits had an older connection with, and a greater reputation among, the “local” mercantile communities in hong kong. with regards to meteorology, these communities were never “laypersons”. instead, the most influential among them were shipping merchants who made meteorological observations on the seas and suffered the risks of unpredictable typhoons. in light of the mutual interests of these communities and the jesuits in manila, the british imperial intention to uphold meteorological sovereignty in hong kong was doomed from the very beginning. in the trial presented by the local press, the winners were the local league of jesuits, the merchants, and the commercial media. 49 ibid. microsoft word 02seiner.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 2. los inicios de la meteorologìa en el perú y la labor del cosmografiato, 1753-1856 lizardo seiner lizárraga universidad de lima, perú english summary the beginnings of meteorology in peru are closely linked to the cosmografiato, a spanish institution transferred to the viceroyalty of peru that was responsible for keeping track of various celestial and climatic phenomena. from 1753-1856, five principal directors of the cosmografiato (juan rehr, cosme bueno, gabriel moreno, josè gregorio paredes, and eduardo carrasco) observed, measured, and on occasion qualitatively described the behavior of the climate of lima. they left a relatively homogeneous and valuable record to posterity, especially instrument measurements of annual maximum and minimum air temperatures and atmospheric pressure. this uninterrupted series of meteorological observations from 1753-1856 represents the most complete record of any peruvian city or institution until the 1890s. introduction en 1753 se inicia en lima una serie ininterrumpida de registros meteorológicos hechos bajo responsabilidad del cosmógrafo mayor, información que fue dada a conocer en el conocimiento de los tiempos, publicación anual que corría bajo responsabilidad del mencionado funcionario y que con otros nombres siguió publicándose hasta 1873. el presente trabajo rescata la información contenida en dicha fuente entre 1753 y 1856 y se compone de varias partes: en una primera mencionamos a los científicos que antecedieron a los cosmógrafos en las mediciones meteorológicas y cómo se convirtieron en un importante punto de contacto entre los cosmógrafos locales y los adelantos tècnicos europeos. luego presentaremos los rasgos básicos de cada uno de los cinco cosmógrafos. en seguida, tras presentar las ventajas y limitaciones de la información proporcionada por cada uno de los cosmógrafos veremos las relaciones que tuvieron con otros científicos que tambièn hicieron observaciones simultáneamente. finalmente, mostraremos la relevancia que la información meteorológica tiene para otros campos de estudio, en particular la historia del clima. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 15 la información derivada de aquellas observaciones constituye la primera plataforma documental para reconstruir el antiguo clima de lima a lo largo de un siglo y aún resta comparar la amplitud cronológica de la serie limeña en relación a la de otras ciudades americanas y europeas. conocida pero escasamente utilizada por los investigadores, dicha información puede emplearse con distintos fines. en primera instancia, dichas observaciones son testimonio del grado de desarrollo de la ciencia en el perú entre los siglos xviii y xix. el historiador marcos cueto llamaba la atención sobre la necesidad de ver el desarrollo de la ciencia en el perú como una sucesión de esfuerzos dirigidos a alcanzar una comprensión del entorno natural; por tanto, no era indispensable hallar descubrimientos científicos originales, hechos al amparo de una tecnología sofisticada y el empleo de un lenguaje indescifrable para el común. en segundo tèrmino se halla su valor como testimonio del propio comportamiento del clima en el pasado. debemos partir de varios supuestos; primero, asumir que cada medición encomendada a cada observador encargado fue efectivamente realizada, habièndose empleado el instrumental requerido en cuyo uso debieron encontrarse adecuadamente entrenados. la única manera de conocer las manifestaciones del clima en el pasado se da reconociendo la capacidad de cada encargado al hacer las mediciones. hacemos esta presunción dadas las escasas referencias a las condiciones físicas en las cuales se operaron las mediciones en el perú. antes del siglo xx, son muy pocos los observadores que explicitan sus mètodos de registro. en consecuencia, cada medición configura un dato al que debemos reconocerle credibilidad. finalmente, y derivado de lo anterior, es importante destacar el valor de la serie como fuente histórica, capaz de echar luces y definir mejor los parámetros entre los que oscila la “normalidad” y la anomalía climática que ocurren en una localidad específica. fenómenos climáticos que congregan actualmente el interès de la ciencia como los fenómenos de el niño o la niña y cuyas manifestaciones locales se estudian exhaustivamente en la actualidad contarán así con un nuevo marco de referencia que corrobore ó rectifique las cronologías que dan cuenta de eventos de ese tipo en el pasado y se encuentran hoy vigentes. tratándose de un ámbito directamente vinculado al desarrollo de la ciencia, no resulta impropio suponer que los mètodos de observación debieron ir afinándose paulatinamente; del mismo modo, las innovaciones estrictamente tecnológicas redundaron en la fabricación de instrumentos mas modernos, capaces de ofrecer registros cada vez más exactos. por ejemplo, podemos dar cuenta de la evolución mostrada en el afinamiento de los mètodos; compárese, al efecto, la única medición diaria de temperatura que solía hacerse en la dècada de 1790 con los cuatro registros que practicaban los observadores a comienzos del siglo xx. asimismo observamos un avance significativo en cuanto al conjunto de parámetros a ser medidos simultáneamente; si a fines del siglo xviii las observaciones se hacían con el propósito de registrar únicamente temperatura, humedad y presión, a ello se sumó luego la observación y medición de la dirección y velocidad del viento. la ampliación del número de observaciones diarias sumada al registro de varios parámetros climáticos pudo deberse a una conjunción de factores; la propia disponibilidad horaria del observador, el acceso al instrumental apropiado, contar con un equipo de trabajo, entre otros. la meteorología en el perú 16 los observadores pioneros las observaciones meteorológicas instrumentales se desarrollaron desde inicios del siglo xviii y fueron obra de científicos extranjeros a quienes se reconoce como los portadores del avance científico europeo hacia amèrica, influyendo poderosamente sobre los científicos locales. entre 1709 y 1712, louis feuillèe fue encargado por el rey luis xiv para emprender estudios en la costa occidental de amèrica del sur y el caribe, debiendo centrarse principalmente en la observación de los vientos, mareas, eclipses y especies botánicas. sus observaciones en lima abarcaron varios meses, comprendidos entre abril de 1709 y enero de 1710, y aunque no tuvieron una frecuencia estrictamente diaria, son muy útiles para reconstruir el clima de aquel año. feuillèe registró la presión con un barómetro de mercurio anotando además la dirección del viento. no debe perderse de vista el hecho que el uso del barómetro no se circunscribía únicamente para indicar presión; tambièn se empleaba para calcular la altitud, con lo cual aplicaba los mètodos mas modernos que venían empleándose en europa. la posta fue tomada años por otro francès. hacia 1735, charles marie de la condamine inició un largo viaje por tierras americanas con el propósito de medir la longitud de un arco de meridiano terrestre en el ecuador. de esta manera, se estimaba podría conocerse más exactamente la redondez de la tierra. autor del mas rico inventario sobre la amèrica meridional en el siglo xviii, la condamine continuó la tradición del padre feuillèe y consolidó la convicción en europa de que amèrica sólo podía ser conocida a travès de una investigación científica seria. su expedición estuvo conformada por un selecto grupo de científicos franceses a los que se agregaron dos marinos españoles: jorge juan y antonio de ulloa. ampliamente conocidos por sus noticias secretas de amèrica, juan y ulloa desempeñaron una importante labor científica. sus observaciones astronómicas y phisicas publicada en madrid en 1748, reúne una amplia gama de observaciones baromètricas, cálculos geomètricos, estudios sobre la posición de los astros y levantamiento de planos, convirtièndolas en referente de consulta obligada para implementar acciones de gobierno como para consulta de futuros científicos. se extienden largamente en asuntos referidos al empleo del barómetro; por ejemplo, entre el 5 y el 20 de enero de 1741 hicieron una serie de observaciones en lima a fin de determinar la latitud de la capital, empleando un barómetro de torricelli. aunque juan fue un alto exponente de la ciencia europea en el virreinato del perú, tambièn se interesó por otros asuntos; la organización política, las costumbres y la religión pueblan muchas páginas de su relación historica del viage a la america meridional tambièn publicado en madrid en 1748. en esta voluminosa obra, juan y ulloa no dejan de observar el clima. refirièndose al temperamento que goza la ciudad de lima, tema al que dedican todo un capítulo, explican la interacción de factores que intervenían para modelar el clima templado que caracterizaba a la urbe. por ello su sorpresa al sentir inusuales bajas de temperatura en los inviernos de 1742 y 1743. los tres viajes contribuyeron decisivamente al conocimiento mas exacto de la naturaleza y costumbres de amèrica meridional. en relación a la astronomía, grande es la deuda de sus cultivadores científicos con la expedición geodèsica francesa de la condamine; alguien ha opinado al respecto afirmando que, ìtodo el desenvolvimiento proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 17 peruano y quiteño en las ciencias astronómicas tiene un antecedente obligado en la expedición geodèsica hispano-francesa que duró de 1735 a 1744. tal exactitud se logró en base al empleo de un instrumental idóneo; telescopios, termómetros, barómetros y otros se usaron ventajosamente para observar sistemáticamente el comportamiento de la naturaleza. los termómetros que venían empleándose en europa tambièn se usaron en amèrica, primero por los viajeros y luego por los observadores locales. la evolución del instrumental termomètrico tuvo dos grandes hitos en el siglo xviii: por una parte, la creación del termómetro de mercurio gracias a los estudios del físico y modesto constructor de instrumentos alemán, gabriel fahrenheit en 1714; de otro lado, renè rèaumur, naturalista francès, inventó el termómetro de alcohol en 1730, líquido al que solía frecuentemente denominarse ìlicor. el aporte de los viajeros europeos en el perú durante la primera mitad del siglo xviii fue significativo para el desarrollo de la meteorología pues puso manos de los científicos locales el instrumental comúnmente usado en europa. los cosmógrafos en el perú emplearon termómetros de escala rèaumur, por lo menos desde 1753, cuando juan rehr realiza registros tèrmicos en lima. su empleo se mantuvo por más de cien años, a todo lo largo del período. el uso simultáneo de las escalas rèaumur y fahrenheit recièn se verifica para la dècada de 1790 y estuvo en manos de observadores ajenos al cosmografiato. el siguiente acápite se extiende largamente en la identificación de la información meteorológica consignada por cada uno de los cosmógrafos que desempeñaron el cargo en 1753 y 1856. el cosmografiato desde su establecimiento en el virreinato del perú a comienzos del siglo xvii, el cosmógrafo fue uno de los más importantes funcionarios de la administración colonial y tuvo su precedente inmediato en el cargo de piloto mayor de la casa de contratación de sevilla. sus funciones estuvieron originalmente vinculadas a la navegación; examinar y graduar a los pilotos, censurar además las cartas e instrumentos de navegación, predecir las fases de la luna, calcular los eclipses y ordenar las tablas de cosmografía. se mantuvo vigente y dependiente de la corona española durante casi dos siglos, hasta 1821, año desde el cual pasó a convertirse en un funcionario republicano. a pesar que el cosmografiato se mantuvo vigente en el perú hasta 1873, mucho tiempo atrás había dejado de lado las observaciones climáticas; el último registro que hemos obtenido corresponde al año 1856 aunque es posible que èstas puedan extenderse hasta 1857, pues solamente al año siguiente el cosmógrafo comunicaba el cese definitivo de las observaciones. entre las mas importantes funciones que el cosmógrafo desempeñó en el perú estuvo la observación astronómica; con ella daba cuenta de la marcha de los astros para así determinar la influencia que èstos tendrían sobre los seres humanos. a fin de difundir tan importantes observaciones, y al parecer desde 1680, la corona depositó en el cosmografiato la responsabilidad de preparar el conocimiento de los tiempos-probablemente siguiendo el modelo del connaissance des temps, aparecido en parís desde 1679--publicación que aparecía a fines de cada año con el objeto de informar sobre los eventos astronómicos más relevantes que ocurrirían a lo largo del año venidero. la futura ocurrencia de eclipses, la secuencia mensual de las fases lunares y hasta la aparición de algún furtivo cometa, eran fenómenos puntualmente señalados, dada la la meteorología en el perú 18 posibilidad de ser identificados con anticipación. a esto se agregaba la inclusión de un calendario y, con periodicidad cada vez mayor, valiosas descripciones geográficas del territorio. se convirtió en un útil manual práctico para uso de funcionarios reales, cualquier habitante del virreinato ó forastero interesado en dichas cuestiones y que deseara conocer la influencia de los fenómenos astronómicos y meteorológicos sobre los seres humanos. por sus características intrínsecas, el conocimiento de los tiempos representó la mejor vía para difundir las observaciones meteorológicas practicadas por los cosmógrafos. larga es la lista de personalidades que estuvieron al frente del cosmografiato; varios hombres de ciencia--astrónomos, matemáticos y mèdicos-desempeñaron el cargo. a travès de las mismas observaciones puede verificarse una paulatina y sustancial mejora cualitativa debido al avance al que la misma ciencia meteorológica iba accediendo en europa y que los científicos en el perú conocían bien. en los más antiguos conocimiento de los tiempos que hemos consultado--textos correspondientes a la dècada de 1740--no existe aún atisbo alguno de registro meteorológico. todavía en tiempos de josè de mosquera y villarroel, encargado del cosmografiato entre 1744 y 1749, se vivía una època nebulosa en lo que a observación meteorológica se refiere. en sus textos aún no encontramos observaciones propiamente dichas sino mas bien pronósticos, tal como era costumbre hacerlos en el cosmografiato desde fines del siglo xvii, fuertemente influido por la astrología. con la información astronómica disponible, mosquera configuraba un pronóstico de comportamiento climático; el que emitió para 1749 revela claramente la modalidad imperante entonces. en su opinión, el clima de lima durante el año de 1749 ìserá en el estío templado y en el invierno demasiadamente frío porque hallándose todos los planetas en sus apogeos o mayor distancia de la tierra, poco nos pueden aprovechar sus radiaciones. aunque las observaciones practicadas por mosquera en otros ámbitos son importantes--por ejemplo confirmar la longitud de lima en base a la observación simultánea de eclipses lunares practicada en otros lugares--no existe propiamente forma alguna de registro meteorológico. la transición hacia nuevos modelos de comprensión se produjo a inicios de la dècada de 1750. sólo con la difusión del pensamiento ilustrado en el perú se asiste a la aparición de escritos que albergaban profundas y razonables dudas sobre la veracidad de los vaticinios astrológicos. fueron los propios cosmógrafos quienes pusieron en duda dichos postulados. el conocimiento de los tiempos publicado en època de mosquera sintetizaba conocimiento astronómico y astrológico; era común que la base fáctica propia de la astronomía se conjugase con el vaticinio astrológico; la posición de los planetas generaba múltiples vaticinios, especialmente los que se vinculan a la salud del cuerpo humano. como era de creencia extendida en aquellos tiempos, las relaciones entre astros--alineamientos, conjunciones y demás posiciones-configuraban condiciones climáticas particulares, causantes a su vez de la aparición de enfermedades. sin sustraerse completamente a estas formas de asociación causal, pero introduciendo el indispensable elemento fáctico que exige una observación climática idónea, juan rehr-religioso jesuita--fue el primer cosmógrafo en medir la temperatura en lima. tras treinta años de desempeño en las misiones guaraníes, rehr fue convocado a lima encomendándosele el reparo de las casas de la orden que habían sufrido los estragos del terremoto de 1746. sus conocimientos de arquitectura y matemáticas respaldaron su proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 19 convocatoria; tanta fue su autoridad en la materia que tambièn se le encomendó el levantamiento de los planos de la nueva catedral de lima, derruida por el mismo sismo. nombrado por el virrey conde de superunda como catedrático de prima de matemática en san marcos en setiembre de 1749 en reemplazo del insigne acadèmico francès louis godin--nombramiento idóneo si nos atenemos al parecer del padre vargas ugarte quien lo consideraba ìel mas insigne matemático que poseyó la provincia peruana a los pocos meses se le encargó la responsabilidad de dirigir el cosmografiato, desempeñándolo entre 1750 y 1756. rehr inició sus registros tèrmicos a partir de 1753. en el análisis que consignó sobre el comportamiento de la temperatura del aire durante el verano de 1754, decía rehr: ìse infiere haver sido mas caliente el estio que el del antecedente de 1753. durante su desempeño al frente del cosmografiato, rehr enriqueció con un amplio conjunto de datos el calendario inserto en el conocimiento de los tiempos; tambièn ajustó sus cálculos astronómicos a las efemèrides de m. de la caille. su muerte, acaecida en 1756, truncó su fructífero aporte a la ciencia peruana colonial. el conocimiento de los tiempos correspondiente a 1755 fue la primera publicación donde se dio cabida y difusión a registros meteorológicos puntuales. el registro de 1755 es un resumen de las observaciones que debió practicar rehr en el transcurso de un año y su interès estriba más bien en la identificación de las temperaturas máxima y mínima. es evidente que al publicarse únicamente dichos registros--lo único con lo que contamos para ese año y muchos de los siguientes--es imposible calcular promedios diarios ó mensuales de temperatura. en forma simultánea, rehr tambièn se interesó en medir las oscilaciones observadas en la presión atmosfèrica, datos que no consignaremos en esta ocasión. rehr implementó el modelo de registro que seguirían utilizando los cosmógrafos en las dècadas siguientes. su particularidad radica en el señalamiento exacto de los días en que se registraron las temperaturas máxima y mínima observadas en el transcurso de un año. continuador de rehr en el cargo fue cosme bueno, mèdico de formación y tambièn catedrático de prima de matemática en san marcos, quien dirigió el cosmografiato por más de cuatro dècadas, comprendidas entre 1757 y 1798. a lo largo de esos años, bueno introdujo sensibles mejoras en el contenido de el conocimiento, en particular las valiosas descripciones de cada una de las provincias que componían el virreinato del perú. entre los contenidos de el conocimiento se consignaba una sección denominada ìjuicio del año, en la que el cosmógrafo adelantaba opinión sobre el comportamiento climático de cada estación a presentarse en el año venidero, influido directamente por la posición que ocuparían los planetas. en 1757 bueno opinaba que: ìel influjo de los cielos es tan positivo que por mas que lo nieguen los hombres, lo confiesan las flores en el campo, el tiempo en sus mudanzas y el mar en sus tormentas. bueno formó parte del selecto grupo de individuos que poseyó bibliotecas en la lima colonial, miembros de una ilustrada ìelite lectora alrededor de la cual giró gran parte del comercio de libros. se la considera como una de las mejores bibliotecas limeñas de la segunda mitad del siglo xviii. como matemático y ìprimer proselito de neuton [sic] en el perú, bueno estaba en condiciones de comprender la dinámica astronómica con suficiencia pues era de ìgrande expedicion en la astronomia. fue el impulsor de la nueva actividad astronómica en el perú. ello suponía distanciarse de las frágiles predicciones de la astrología; ello se hace patente cuando afirma: ìquè ciertos fueran los prognosticos si la la meteorología en el perú 20 astrologia, asi como es un arte de conjeturas fuera un arte de demonstracion. si como el movimiento de los astros se sujeta al calculo, se sujetaran del mismo modo sus influxos, fuera aquel arte divertido a un tiempo y util. los registros de temperatura se extienden a todo el período en el que bueno estuvo al frente de dicha institución. siguiendo el modelo de rehr, bueno anotaba el resultado de las observaciones que emprendía durante el año. las de 1766, semejantes en la forma a todas las demás, indicaban: ìlos dias en que se sintio mas calor el año pasado de 1766 fueron el 18 y 19 de febrero y el 14, 15 y 16 de marzo en que subio el licor del termometro a 21 grados y medio. los dias en que se sintio el frio mas intenso fueron el 31 de julio; el 1, 2, 5 [ilegible] y 9 de agosto en que el licor estuvo a 13 [grados] y medio. las mediciones del padre rehr abrieron el camino del registro meteorológico en el perú y aunque desconocemos las condiciones en las que las realizó, sí sabemos que las practicadas por cosme bueno fueron el producto de un esfuerzo indesmayable de su parte. la constancia para medir la temperatura pareciera no haber sido tropiezo para el metódico cosmógrafo ya que--en opinión de su discípulo gabriel moreno--sus tareas y obligaciones ìiban tan arregladas que la hora que tenia hoy un destino, tenía mañana y en las siguientes invariablemente el mismo. el testimonio genera un aceptable margen de credibilidad sobre la manera ordenada y sistemática con que bueno recogió su información. los avances científicos de bueno en astronomía fueron los pioneros en el perú pero no fueron los únicos en latinoamèrica. a medida que transcurría el siglo xviii, el conocimiento de los tiempos fue perdiendo el contenido astrológico e imaginario que poseían y se convirtieron en textos rigurosamente científicos. en mèxico, los ataques a la astrología se remontaban a la segunda mitad del siglo xvii; carlos de sig¸enza y góngora elaboró una serie de tratados astronómicos e hizo una serie de cálculos precisos sobre eventos celestes con los que desmitificó la interpretación antojadiza de los cielos que solía ver en ellos signos de calamidades. entre 1671 y 1701-año de su deceso--sig¸enza elaboró 31 lunarios con los que renovó la ciencia astronómica en mèxico, consolidando un proceso que se remontaba a 1630. en dicha renovación jugaron un lugar preponderante los colegios de jesuitas esparcidos por todo el continente. los registros de rehr y bueno configuraron la primera modalidad de presentación de resultados de observación en el cosmografiato; èsta se mantuvo inalterable durante varias dècadas mas. consistía èsta en una selección del día exacto o periodo diario en los que se registró la temperatura máxima y la mínima. las mediciones diarias practicadas durante todo el año no se publicaban; sólo interesaba al cosmógrafo identificar el día más caluroso del año y tambièn el más frío. por fuerza, dado el escaso espacio que se reservaba a la sección ìobservaciones meteorologicas dentro de el conocimiento, los registros debían ser sintèticos. en consecuencia, dada la imposibilidad de acceder a los registros restantes--cuya existencia desconocemos tanto como la misma documentación oficial emanada del cosmografiato--resulta imposible calcular parámetros importantes como el promedio diario ó mensual de temperatura. esta se convierte así en la gran limitación que presenta la información meteorológica generada por los cosmógrafos entre 1753 y 1856. a partir de 1798, gabriel moreno asumía el cargo de cosmógrafo. los registros aparecieron publicadas en el almanaque peruano y guía de forasteros para el año de 1799, el primero salido a luz bajo responsabilidad de moreno. la llegada de moreno proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 21 significó una nueva perspectiva en el análisis y presentación de los temas climatológicos durante la dècada de vigencia en que estuvo al frente del cargo, entre 1799 y 1809. desde la aparición del almanaque correspondiente a 1801, moreno agregó, a los conocidos registros de temperatura, una reseña del comportamiento estacional del clima habido en el transcurso del año que concluía. así, cada estación del año era descrita detalladamente, indicándose la intensidad y frecuencia de las precipitaciones, las fluctuaciones de temperatura y demás fenómenos climáticos. la puntual descripción del comportamiento climático registrado en lima durante los últimos meses de 1803 y el verano de 1804 queda registrada en la siguiente cita: noviembre [1803] continuó despejado, a excepción de algunas garúas por la noche. repitieron los relámpagos y algunos temblores remisos. el barómetro se mantuvo casi siempre en 27 grados. el termómetro subió desde 15 hasta 23 y medio. cedió el catarro epidèmico comenzado en agosto y en lo general la estación fue sana. el estío se inició el 22 de diciembre. el calor fue mayor que el del estío antecedente aún con haber subido aquel 3 grados mas del máximo de otros años. siempre subió de 23 grados llegando en algunos días hasta 26 grados. su alternativa en enero fue hasta mediados desde mas de 24 hasta mas de 25 grados. distantes quedaban en el tiempo los registros de cosme bueno, sistemáticos como pocos pero referidos únicamente al señalamiento de las fluctuaciones instrumentales. los de moreno en cambio, abrían una nueva forma de evaluar el comportamiento del clima; la exacta presentación de los hechos completaba el vaticinio del pronóstico, característico de las dècadas anteriores. la inclusión de estas observaciones fue ganando espacio dentro de los almanaques; en los primeros años simplemente formaban parte de algunas secciones, pero a partir de 1806 logra constituirse en una sección autónoma explícitamente denominada ìmeteorología del año anterior, manteniendo sus mismos alcances aunque evidenciando la importancia que moreno concedía a dichas observaciones. así se mantuvo hasta la publicación del almanaque de 1809, último de los publicados bajo su guía. josè gregorio paredes, una de las más importantes personalidades nacionales que vivió--al igual que hipólito unanue--el difícil tránsito entre el règimen colonial y el nuevo sistema republicano, asumió la responsabilidad de conducir el cosmografiato desde 1809 a raíz del deceso de moreno, ocurrido en mayo de ese mismo año. a pesar de haberse alejado por breves periodos en el desempeño del cargo como entre los años 1810 y 1813--por razones de viaje--o entre 1825 y 1828, la vigencia de paredes se extiende entre 1809 y 1840, convirtiendo su gestión en la más prolongada al frente del cosmografiato en el siglo xix. como señalábamos líneas atrás, paredes vivió los convulsos tiempos de la emancipación; ello influyó sobre el funcionamiento mismo del cosmografiato amen de introducirse cambios como fue la novedosa denominación con la que se conocería el almanaque. tras largos años de vigencia, el almanaque y guía de forasteros variaba ligeramente de denominación al convertirse, a partir de 1821, en el calendario y guía de forasteros, año que marcaba el inicio de la nueva estructura política del país. durante las tres dècadas en las que estuvo al frente del cargo, paredes cumplió eficientemente su acopio de información meteorológica. dada la concisión con la que fueron redactadas, los registros meteorológicos estuvieron generalmente circunscritos a hacer mención única pero constante tanto de parámetros tèrmicos y baromètricos; de ello se deriva su homogeneidad. sólo en años excepcionales, varió paredes la presentación de la meteorología en el perú 22 su información. uno de aquellos fue 1829, cuando en el calendario correspondiente a dicho año informaba sobre los terribles destrozos ocasionados en el país a causa de las fuertes lluvias y desbordes de ríos que provocaron las inundaciones ocurridas en el verano de 1828. paredes continuó publicando el calendario hasta 1840; fue el último mèdico en ocupar la dirección del cosmografiato. su muerte, acaecida en diciembre de 1839, dio paso a la última gran figura que estuvo al frente del cosmografiato: eduardo carrasco. la llegada de carrasco al cosmografiato ocurrió a comienzos de la dècada de 1840 y se prolongó hasta 1858. marino de profesión y brillante matemático, carrasco continuó la brillante saga dejada por todas las destacadas personalidades que estuvieron al frente de esa institución; en los calendarios publicados bajo su responsabilidad en las dècadas de 1840 y 1850 hemos encontrado constantemente una sección reservada a consignar las temperaturas máxima y mínima registradas en lima. a travès de todos esos años, la información se ajusta a un patrón: indicar de manera sintetizada las fluctuaciones climáticas habidas en la capital durante el año anterior a la publicación del calendario. carrasco observó con dedicación las variaciones del clima limeño. atinada iniciativa fue volver a ofrecer comentarios sobre la dinámica climática, retomando un estilo que no se apreciaba desde los tiempos de gabriel moreno. un ejemplo de ello se aprecia en su descripción del clima limeño de 1849: ìlos días de mayor calor el año anterior fueron del 10 al 30 de marzo en que el termómetro reaumur subió de 20.5 a 23.8. los días de mayor frío, fueron del principio de junio al 15 de setiembre en que llegó el termómetro de 15.5 a 14.2 . . . el invierno fue de los mas rijidos y enfermizos, en que abundaron extraordinariamente las afecciones de orina y demas de carácter inflamatorio. se observa que la información continuaba aún registrándose con la escala rèaumur de temperatura, tal como se realizaba en tiempos de rehr, un siglo atrás, a mediados del siglo xviii. desde 1858, pedro mariano cabello reemplazó a eduardo carrasco en la confección de las guías. ello significó, lamentablemente, la desaparición de la sección destinada a consignar las observaciones meteorológicas hechas en lima, como había sido costumbre en las guías de carrasco y en toda la tradición anterior. el mismo cabello lo especificaba: ìtengo el sentimiento de anunciar al público que no he insertado en la guía las observaciones meteorológicas que he hecho en el año 1858 porque no me ha parecido desde el momento que, el cumplimiento de las obligaciones anexas al cargo de subdirector de la fábrica de pólvora que ejerzo, algunas veces no me han permitido hacerlas en las horas convenientes. a fines de la dècada de 1850, el cosmografiato distaba de cumplir con suficiencia las funciones de antaño; en tal sentido no pareciera ser exagerado el juicio ofrecido por manuel atanasio fuentes al referirse al cosmografiato como un ìcuerpo sin vida. tras un siglo de registro constante de temperatura, el cosmografiato dejaba de lado una de sus labores más esenciales y encomiables. no obstante, a pesar de la súbita y definitiva conclusión de las observaciones, lo acopiado durante todo ese tiempo constituye un material documental relevante. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 23 comentarios aunque desde un punto de vista estrictamente meteorológico podrían formularse explicables atingencias a la información consignada, debemos aclarar que si bien las mediciones carecen de las especificaciones requeridas tales como número de observaciones efectuadas durante el día ó emplazamiento exacto del instrumental--que sí son efectivamente conocidas en otros casos--la información es valiosa en tanto permite trazar una curva de fluctuaciones tèrmicas. el gráfico que insertamos a continuación corrobora lo dicho (figura 1). si hemos extendido la serie de observaciones hasta 1856 es porque la información a la que hemos tenido acceso sólo llega hasta dicho año. a pesar de los vacíos observados en determinados años--fuese por la no disponibilidad del texto correspondiente ó por la no inclusión de la información meteorológica--lo mostrado en el gráfico constituye una nueva perspectiva para entender la fluctuación de la temperatura del aire en lima, aportando, de esta manera, información para confirmar ó rechazar cronologías de eventos climáticos. vèase por ejemplo el pico que registra la línea de temperatura máxima en el bienio 1803-1804, el mayor registrado en todo el período. trabajos anteriores ya destacaban la presencia de un evento ìel niño de gran magnitud, generador de anomalías en todo el virreinato y otras partes del orbe. puede entenderse entonces, que en este caso, la información proveniente de un registro instrumental corrobora lo indicado por la documentación contemporánea. hipólito unanue fue testigo privilegiado de aquellas anomalías y dio cuenta de ellas al anotar ìel estío de 1804 fue muy caluroso. el termómetro subió a los 24 grados [rèaumur],--situación inèdita, totalmente anormal, toda vez que se consideraba que la temperatura máxima que solía registrarse en lima apenas llegaba a los 22 grados. la información se presentó de diversas maneras. algunos cosmógrafos consignaran las temperaturas extremas--máxima y mínima--habidas en una o varias fechas específicas. en otros casos se hace referencia a lapsos--de duración diversa--a lo largo de los cuales la temperatura fluctuaba entre extremos. veamos ejemplos específicos: según moreno, el 17 de febrero de 1799 se registró en lima la temperatura más alta del año cuando los termómetros de escala rèaumur marcaron 21 grados. años despuès en 1816, romero indicaba que los días 28 de febrero y 17 de marzo se había alcanzado la temperatura más alta, la cual llegó a los 22 grados. desde 1799 hasta 1840 y con la única excepción de 1832, los almanaques consignan la temperatura máxima y mínima registrada durante el año. a partir de 1841, en cambio, los almanaques pasan a presentar la temperatura en base a intervalos máximos ó mínimos. vèase un registro típico: entre el 10 y el 30 de marzo de 1849, la temperatura fluctuó dentro de los intervalos más altos, oscilando entre los 20.5 y los 23.8 grados de temperatura. utilidad de la información las temperaturas registradas en lima entre enero y marzo de 1849--que debieran haber sido altas--no permiten postular la ocurrencia de una situación climática anómala pues las temperaturas se encuentran dentro de los rangos normales entre los que oscila el verano limeño. en base al cuadro, marzo aparece como el mes en el cual se registró la más alta temperatura absoluta, 27.9 grados centígrados. tal registro llama la atención pues si tenemos en cuenta que 1791 es considerado un año anómalo debido a las grandes la meteorología en el perú 24 inundaciones acaecidas en la costa norte y central del virreinato y que ha sido interpretado como año de ocurrencia de el niño, las temperaturas debieron haber sido excepcionalmente altas, mayores de 30 grados, tal como se observó en el fenómeno ocurrido en 1983. en consecuencia, las dudas obligan a plantear diversas interrogantes: •deficiencias instrumentales de los termómetros empleados por francisco romero? •inexistencia de un fenómeno tipo el niño en 1791, contrariamente a lo que se afirma con frecuencia ó simplemente un rasgo climático propio del evento de 1791? de igual modo, la serie nos permite identificar tambièn los años fríos, aquellos en los cuales podría haberse experimentado los efectos del fenómeno de la niña. vèase al efecto el período 1813-1816, en cuyos años extremos se registraron las temperaturas mas bajas de la serie. romero anotaba que ìel año 1815 será memorable en lima por su extraordinario invierno. la afirmación de romero debe matizarse a la luz de algunas opiniones. una indicaba ìno se conoce realmente el frío sino solamente el fresco. . . no bien el termómetro registra unos grados menos de 20∫ la gente comienza a sentir frío y cuando sube a 26∫ todo el mundo se queja de gran calor. indudablemente, la elaboración de esta serie representa un primer paso en pos de alcanzar un conocimiento más exacto sobre el comportamiento del clima limeño. se extrañan análisis sobre años concretos; conocer más observaciones y descubrir nuevos registros serán informaciones útiles para establecer mejor las fluctuaciones estacionales de la temperatura del aire, presión y humedad. otras fuentes abrirán nuevos frentes de búsqueda. información especialmente valiosa nos parece la que proporcionan los mèdicos de la època, afanados por conocer los vaivenes del clima para así administrar mejor la terapia que permita a sus pacientes soportar mejor los embates de las enfermedades que solían caracterizar cada estación. nótese la riqueza de información contenida en las observaciones del doctor josè manuel dávalos: ìel invierno de 1813 ha sido muy suave. en los meses de julio y agosto ha habido lluvias y nieblas; las heladas han sido bastante calientes [sic] de modo que los arboles frutales adelantados; con todo, la yerba ha padecido con los hielos. aún faltan y análisis debe extenderse a más años y sólo así podremos establecer una curva aceptable que muestre las fluctuaciones de temperatura en lima en el tiempo largo. en resumen, durante el siglo comprendido entre 1753 y 1856 se desarrolló un profundo interès por la observación de la naturaleza y en particular, por registrar las fluctuaciones visibles en el comportamiento del clima en lima. el análisis de la serie configurada en base al registro de la oscilación de la temperatura máxima y mínima del aire en la capital conduce a corroborar, o delinear mejor--gracias al uso de información instrumental--episodios ya conocidos de alteración climática como son los eventos tipo el niño. la labor permanente de los cosmógrafos y de otros científicos deseosos de registrar la temperatura en el tiempo largo, empleándola como información de base para consideraciones en el campo de la salud, revela los avances de la ciencia en el perú. ellos configuran el período fundacional de la meteorología en el perú. dicho período se caracterizó tambièn, en lo que a la evolución de los registros meteorológicos en lima se refiere, por la existencia de dos esfuerzos simultáneos dirigidos a comprender de modo más exacto el comportamiento de la naturaleza en su dimensión atmosfèrica. por un lado, un esfuerzo institucional representado por el cosmografiato, y por otro, el empuje de numerosos científicos que en forma paralela al primero, registraron de manera proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 25 sistemática las manifestaciones del clima, según se ha consignado sintèticamente en la columna ìobservador simultáneo del cuadro adjunto y que no hemos desarrollado en esta ocasión. no obstante, aún cuando pueda hablarse del cosmografiato como una entidad que formaba parte misma del estado, no podría soslayarse el hecho que su funcionamiento recaía en un solo individuo, el cosmógrafo. en consecuencia, sólo el impulso individual garantizó la implementación de registros meteorológicos durante el período. en suma, el registro meteorológico en lima tiene larga data y constituye una excelente puerta de entrada para el conocimiento de diversos aspectos relacionados con la evolución de la ciencia en el perú, el rol del estado en la implementación de servicios tanto en època colonial como republicana, así como la valiosa participación de científicos que a título personal o formando parte de instituciones, emprendieron meritorios trabajos de investigación y sistematización de la información. fig. 1. registro de temperatura máxima y mínima en lima, 1754-185 la meteorología en el perú 26 referencias marcos cueto, saberes andinos: ciencia y tecnología en bolivia, ecuador y perú, lima, instituto de estudios peruanos, 1995, p.21. louis feuillèe, journal des observations physiques, mathèmatiques et botaniques faites par líordre du roy sur les cùtes orientales de líamèrique mèridionale et dans les indes occidentales depuis líannèe 1707 jusques en 1712, paris, pierre giffart, 1714, tomo 1, p.405. jorge juan y santacilia, observaciones astronomicas y phisicas hechas de orden de s. mag. en los reynos del peru por [...] de las quales se deduce la figura y magnitud de la tierra y su aplicación a la navegación. madrid, por juan de zúñiga, 1748, p.103. charles marie de la condamine, relation díun voyage dans líinterieur de l’amèrique mèridionale, paris, pissot, 1745. pablo macera, viajeros franceses, siglos xvi-xix, lima, biblioteca nacional del perú/embajada de francia en el perú, 1999, p.42. manuel vegas vèlez, “viajeros franceses en el perú, siglos xviii y xix: entre los intereses comerciales y las observaciones científicas”, boletín de lima, 75 (mayo 1991), p.29. jorge juan y santacilia, observaciones astronomicas y phisicas, op cit. jorge juan y antonio de ulloa, relacion historica del viage a la america meridional hecho por orden de s. mag, madrid, antonio mena, 1748. elías trabulse, ciencia y tecnología en el nuevo mundo, mèxico, d.f., fondo de cultura económica/colegio de mèxico, 1994, p.101. federico schwab, “los almanaques peruanos y guías de forasteros, 1680?-1874”, boletín bibliográfico de san marcos, 21 (1948), pp.103-106. josè de mosquera, el conocimiento de los tiempos, efemèrides del año 1749, lima. juan rehr, el conocimiento de los tiempos, efemèrides del año 1755, lima. rubèn vargas ugarte, los jesuitas del perú, lima, 1941, p.165. cosme bueno, el conocimiento de los tiempos, efemèrides del año 1762, lima, en la imprenta real. bueno, el conocimiento de los tiempos, efemèrides del año 1767, lima, en la imprenta real. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 27 trabulse, ciencia y tecnología en el nuevo mundo, op.cit., pp.81 y passim. andrea battistini, “del caos al cosmos: el saber enciclopèdico de los jesuitas”, en de las academias a la enciclopedia: el discurso del saber en la modernidad, ed. evangelina rodríguez, valencia, ediciones alfons el magnanim, 1993, p.306. gabriel moreno, almanaque peruano y guía de forasteros para el año de 1805, lima. eduardo carrasco, calendario y guía de forasteros de lima para el año 1850, lima. cursiva nuestra; pedro mariano cabello, guía del perú para el año 1859, lima, imprenta de j. m. masías. william quinn, victor t. neal y santiago antúnez de mayolo, “el niño occurrences over the past four and half centuries”, journal of geophysical research, 92 (1987): 14449-14461, p.14450; anne marie hocquenghem y luc ortlieb, “eventos el niño y lluvias anormales en la costa del perú: siglos xvi-xix”, bulletin de l’institut francais d’etudes andines, 19 (1992), 2:197-278, pp.243-248; quinn, “the large-scale enso event, the el niño and other important regional features”, bulletin de l’institut francais d’etudes andines, 22 (1993), 1:13-34, p.22; lorenzo huertas, “anomalías cíclicas naturales y su impacto en la sociedad: el fenómeno el niño”, bulletin de l’institut francais d’etudes andines, 22 (1993), 1:345-393, p.354; lizardo seiner, “ecología e historia: interacciones entre medio ambiente y sociedad, siglos xvi-xx”, plural, revista del programa de estudios generales de la universidad de lima, 3 (1997), 4-5:13-73, p.52. hipólito unanue, observaciones sobre el clima de lima y sus influencias en los seres organizados en especial el hombre, 1815 ed., en obras científicas y literarias de hipólito unanue, lima, editorial universo, 1975, tomo 1, p.36. felipe huamán solis y alfonso garcía peña, “condiciones meteorológicas en el perú durante el fenómeno de el niño 1982-1983”, en ciencia, tecnología y agresión ambiental: el fenómeno el niño, lima, concytec, 1985, p.343. ernst w. middendorf, perú, observaciones y estudios del país y sus habitantes durante una permanencia de 25 años, lima, universidad nacional mayor de san marcos, 1971, tomo i, p.123. luis antonio eguiguren, catálogo histórico del claustro de la universidad de san marcos, 1576-1800, lima, imprenta el progreso editorial, 1912, p.21. hom6_00frontmatter-1 history of meteorology volume 6, 2014 ruth a. morgan guest editor james rodger fleming editor-in-chief history of meteorology is the peer-reviewed journal of the ichm © ichm 2014 issn 1555-5763 proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology history of meteorology 6 (2014) ii this page intentionally left blank history of meteorology 6 (2014) iii contents pages introduction, call for papers, and style guide iv-vi perspectives on the century past, 1914-2014 jakob bjerknes (usa), half a century of change in the “meteorological scene” 1-6 anders persson (sweden) fifty years later 7-13 special collection of papers from the 2014 international congress of history of science, technology, and medicine edited by ruth a. morgan ruth a. morgan (australia) argument, authority and anxiety in the atmospheric sciences 14-16 chris o’brien (australia) deliberate confusions 17-34 james kneale (uk) and samuel randalls (uk) invisible atmospheric knowledges in british insurance companies, 1830-1914 35-52 gabriel henderson (denmark) the dilemma of reticence: helmut landsberg, stephen schneider, and public communication of climate risk, 1971-1976 53-78 david g. hirst (uk) balancing scientific credibility and political legitimacy: the ipcc’s first assessment cycle, 1988-1990 79-94 martin mahony (uk) the ipcc and the geographies of credibility 95-112 history of meteorology 6 (2014) iv introduction history of meteorology 6 (2014) celebrates a century of change in the “meteorological scene” by reprinting the semi-autobiographical reflections of jakob bjerknes, who looked back a halfcentury from 1964 to his childhood. this is accompanied by anders persson’s review of the past half-century. together they provide a 100-year retrospect on such topics as polar exploration, satellite meteorology, numerical weather prediction, and the limits of predictability. the volume continues with a special collection of papers edited by ruth a. morgan first presented at the 2013 international congress of history of science, technology, and medicine held in manchester, uk on the theme of “gaining it / losing it / regaining it (?): knowledge production in climate science – status anxiety and authority across disciplines.” as to the near future, following a successful workshop in bergen, norway, history of meteorology 7 is slated to appear in 2015 on the topic of “climate in meteorology, meteorology in climate studies,” under the guest editorship of gunnar ellingsen and magnus vollset. in july 2015 ichm members are participating in several sessions at the international congress of historical geographers in london. the ichm is the same age as the 21st century. it is in good hands under the leadership of president georgina endfield (uk), vice-president christina helena da motta barboza (brazil), treasurer anna carlsson-hysslop uk), secretary alex hall (uk), and webmaster giny cheong (usa). please browse the homepage http://www.meteohistory.org for announcements, past issues of this journal, and other links, and consider joining us in pursuit of “scholarship and friendship” in the history of meteorology and related fields. james rodger fleming china, maine history of meteorology 6 (2014) v history of meteorology call for papers articles on the history of meteorology and related sciences are now being accepted on a rolling basis for consideration in history of meteorology; so too are proposals to edit special issues. manuscripts should be based on original research and present a novel thesis; they must be engaging, clearly written, and fully documented, following the style guide below. authors are reminded that international and interdisciplinary perspectives are encouraged. all papers will be subject to peer review. because this is an electronic journal, it is possible to publish color illustrations and experiment with alternative media such as audio and video files and databases. history of meteorology has a stable url at http://meteohistory.org and has been assigned issn 1555-5763 by the u.s. library of congress. it is currently being indexed by two leading services: isis current bibliography of the history of science and meteorological and geoastrophysical abstracts. queries or manuscripts should be directed to the editor-in-chief, jim fleming, e-mail jfleming at colby.edu history of meteorology 6 (2014) vi style guide manuscripts for history of meteorology are to be submitted electronically to the editor in ms word format (please ask in advance about other formats). before publication, authors must certify that their work is original and that all necessary permissions have been acquired. format paper size: u.s. letter margins: 1.0 inch on all sides headers and footers: 0.5 inch (left blank except for preliminary pagination) line spacing: double font: text: 12 point times new roman; captions: 11 point times new roman section headers: use bold section headers paper length: less than 10,000 words, including citations. ask if your manuscript is longer than this. figures and tables figures must be provided as separate image files (jpeg or tiff) with a resolution of at least 300 dpi. both figures and tables must be mentioned in the text (e.g. fig. 1) before their appearance in the paper. figure captions appear below the figure in 11-point type with a hanging indent: fig. 1. caption descriptive of the image but does not repeat what was said in the text of the paper. image courtesy of (or by permission of) xxx. tables must be carefully formatted in advance by the author. titles appear above the table in 11point type: table 1. title of table (use hanging indent if it is a long title). citations citations may be either endnotes, numbered sequentially, or references (author date) listed alphabetically at the end of the paper. any major style, consistently applied, is acceptable. each citation must provide name of author/editor, full title of the work, place, publisher, date, and page references. titles of books and journals are italicized, not underlined. archival and manuscript material must contain a full description in the first citation. use of abbreviations (e.g. amer. j. sci.) is encouraged, as is the short reference format for subsequent citations of a text. endnotes are not meant to be discursive. microsoft word hom6_05_kneale&randalls_invisible atmospheric.docx   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    35   invisible atmospheric knowledges in british insurance companies, 1830-1914 james kneale and samuel randalls university college london london, united kingdom if insurance is considered to mean any attempt to guard against the consequences of disaster or loss, then it has a very long history. its principle of pooling resources in a collectivity – a local benevolent society, an international insurance company, or a nation state – against future possible disaster represents a way of coping with uncertainty and is a key part of what we think of as government or civil society. recognisable insurance contracts date from the fifteenth century, and life, fire and shipping insurance all become established in britain in the late seventeenth century, though life assurance really only came into its own in the last decades of the eighteenth century and would undergo great changes and expansion in the nineteenth.1 modern insurance, however, is thought to be characterised by its use of actuarial calculation, which came about after the ‘probabilistic revolution’ of the seventeenth century. in the case of life assurance, for example, in the late eighteenth century the equitable’s actuary calculated premium tables that were based upon earlier statistical investigations of mortality. a better sense of ‘normal’ life expectancy should mean that firms could ensure that the premiums received from policyholders would cover likely costs from death claims. the use of more accurate estimates of mortality and the professionalization of actuarial science in the nineteenth century meant that firms became more secure, and life policies became increasingly viewed as a form of protection against the future.2 however, while actuarial calculations converted uncertainty into priceable risk, the history of insurance shows that they were not adopted until later than is often assumed. geoffrey clark notes that eighteenth-century shipping insurers prudently considered different risks – season, likelihood of war, natural hazards, or piracy – but did not compile this information, or use 1 geoffrey wilson clark, betting on lives: the culture of life insurance in england, 1695-1775 (manchester university press, 1999). 2 timothy alborn, regulated lives: life assurance and british society, 1800-1914 (university of toronto press, 2009); and theodore m porter, (1995) trust in numbers: the pursuit of objectivity in science and public life (princeton university press, 1995).   kneale  and  randalls,  invisible  atmospheric  knowledges   36         it to generate a statistically-informed calculation of risk. in fact, he suggests that they could not see the actuarial wood for the trees: “their attention to the particular risks connected to each sailing actually led them away from a statistical approach to their underwriting.” in a sentence that also rings true for later special cases in insurance risk pricing, he concludes: “experience counted; counting didn’t.”3 this paper takes up this argument to consider the history of british insurance in terms of its engagement with meteorology (hail) and climatology (travel and ‘foreign residence’) between 1830 and 1914. the former case represented a small but significant part of agricultural insurance while the latter was an important aspect of what became a major industry. we suggest that this engagement was productive, but fell short of a genuinely scientific or actuarial sense of either meteorology or climatology. the reasons for this will be explored later. both forms of insurance expanded during the nineteenth century, a period when concomitantly meteorology experienced a rapid development of scientific interest and increasing governmental relevance especially as regards weather forecasting. enabled by the telegraph and central organizing offices, meteorological statistics could be used to develop conceptual explanations regarding storm tracks and weather patterns, which enabled a ‘modern’ vision of meteorology to emerge. as katherine anderson notes, meteorology was not just a modern enterprise in the sense of using technologies like telegraphs, it also promoted a new scale of science that demanded some form of central ordering point.4 the prediction of storm paths, for example, required carefully observing and assimilating data over a period of time along the track of the storm, a key criterion for the value of a meteorological office. in climatology, though often sidelined as less scientific,5 statistics enabled general understanding of the connections between climate and people, with for example research on climate on travel and mortality supported through, for example, the establishment of the general register office in 1838, which gathered statistics on mortality and on the side collated weather information. indeed the importance of collation of statistics is not underestimated by nathaniel beardmore as the scientific task of the british meteorological society of which he was president 1861-62: “we must observe, record and collate, if we would arrive at first causes”.6 much of the historical literature has thus explored the scientific collation of meteorological statistics to explain weather phenomena.7 in this paper, however, we show how other statistics were collated for different purposes, producing a form of ‘invisible’ weather knowledge, that is, invisible from standard scientific 3 clark, betting, 7. 4 katherine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: university of chicago press, 2005). 5 john laughton makes this point in his presidential address to the royal meteorological society in 1884 when describing his focus on climatology as more akin to geography than meteorology. john k laughton, ‘an address delivered at the annual general meeting, january 16th, 1884)’, quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 10 (1884): 77-87. 6 nathaniel beardmore, “presidential address,” proceedings of the british meteorological society 1(1861): 1-8, 2. 7 anderson, predicting. james rodger fleming, meteorology in america, 1800-1870 (johns hopkins press, 1991).   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    37   circles or only occasionally exchanged with these societies. statistics were collated by insurance companies to set premiums on insurance contracts rather than to explain first causes. indeed there is one notable recorded exception of the way in which an insurance contract came to explore first causes. as james fleming notes, the storm controversy in the 1830s was translated through the french academy’s distinction of electrical storms from tornadoes in the case of an insurance claim made in paris.8 distinguishing, conceptually and empirically, the difference between heat and electricity in the causation of tornados was the subject of much scientific debate most clearly evidenced in dr hare’s 1852 pamphlet on the controversy. the insurance companies, however, had already paid out under the electrical definition of a tornado’s action. any alterations to the status of a tornado could re-open questions of what payments should have been made or could be made under future contracts.9 much of the time, we argue that insurers did create some kinds of experiential, insurantial expertise about weather and climate risks, but this was rarely formulated within formal meteorological scientific circles or even as a fully actuarial science. nevertheless we believe that it is important within histories of the atmospheric sciences to capture expertise beyond the formally recognized meteorological sciences. for example, studies of amateur meteorology have suggested that the amateur societies and enthusiasts were key to the shaping of professional and scientific endeavour through their careful and persistent observing.10 these amateur interests also generated popular support for the production of meteorological science as each could be of value in the cause of enabling better understanding of weather and consequently one hoped reduce the risks of weather hazards. tabulation was increasingly favoured over the meteoric tradition and this required a standardisation of measurements.11 “amateurs took a leading role in the collection of data, while their interpretation remained the domain of the professional.”12 amateurs were driven therefore by ideals of self-improvement and public utility, and created localized forms of weather expertise that even if they lacked conceptual apparatus provided robust locally specific and relevant understandings of weather. likewise as sarah dry has suggested, the barometers sent to fisherfolk by the meteorological department in the mid-19th century acted both to prove the necessity of careful measurement if one wanted to attain predictive knowledge and at the same time ensure fisherfolk’s tacit knowledge to read the weather was enhanced, enabling an effective self-governance rather ‘responsibilizing’ government for forecast accuracy i.e. the barometer quantified but that quantification did not have a unitary goal to achieve better official scientific expertise.13 8 fleming, meteorology in america, 23-54. 9 dr hare. on the conclusion arrived at by a committee of the academy of sciences of france, agreeably to which, tornados are caused by heat; while, agreeably to peltier’s report to the same body, certain insurers had been obliged to pay for a tornado as an electrical storm. also, abstracts from peltier’s report. 2nd ed. philadelphia: 1852. 10 georgina h. endfield and carol morris, ‘exploring the role of the amateur in the production and circulation of meteorological knowledge’, climatic change 113 (2012): 69-89. 11 vladimir jankovic, reading the skies: a cultural history of english weather, 1650-1820 (university of manchester press, 2001); simon naylor, regionalizing science: placing knowledge in victorian england (pickering and chatto, 2010). anderson, predicting. 12 endfield and norris, ‘exploring’, 72. 13 sarah dry, fisherman and forecasts: how barometers helped make the meteorological department safer in victorian britain. centre for analysis of risk and regulation discussion paper no 46 (lse,   kneale  and  randalls,  invisible  atmospheric  knowledges   38         in our case, companies collected vast reams of data about patterns of hail damage to crops and understanding of damages caused by different atmospheric phenomena, which all drew on extended knowledge and understanding of farming and agriculture. indeed, the directors of the hail company we will be turning to in a moment were frequently members of agricultural societies. as such insurers collated their own ‘invisible meteorological dataset’, in the sense that this was a commercial dataset rather than a publicly available one, it was not really used or developed for science, but it nevertheless represented a form of meteorologically-related data from which expertise about weather risk could be derived. as eleonora rohland highlights in the case of swiss re, climatic conditions and their relevance for fire were regularly considered at board meetings not least because weather anomalies had an evident consequence on the financial performance of the company (even if fire was not treated as a natural hazard).14 interestingly rohland suggests that swiss re’s interpretation of weather charts somewhat matched meteorological conditions, but were clearly translated through other issues such as explanation of major losses to the board. we turn first to the case of hail insurance and meteorology, before a more extended consideration of climatology and life insurance for people travelling overseas. hail insurance in the uk hailstorms, along with floods and droughts, high winds and frost, represent a considerable threat to the agricultural economy. prior to the enclosure movement that largely occurred in england after 1700, dispersed, scattered and public fields meant that risks from hail were spread and limited in their scope on any individual farmer.15 enclosed fields on the other hand concentrated the risks that a hailstorm would have a significant effect on an individual farmer, thus encouraging the development of other forms of risk management, whether collective or private. it is within this context that hail insurance emerged in the uk in 1840 under the direction of the farmers and general insurance company. the directors for this company drew from continental experience in establishing rates and procedures; french hail insurance had been discussed since the 1810s and was active since the 1820s, and in italy in 1830 saverio capris di cigliero published his proposal to insure crops against bad weather, particularly hail.16 farmers and general considered the business novel and hived it off into a separate entity initially, before re-incorporating it into the main business at the start of 1844. the return seems to have been 2007). we use the word ‘responsibilizing’ in the sense in which theorists of governmentality use it, for example in describing “budgets, audits, standards, benchmarks,and other technologies that were both autonomizing and responsibilizing’. see, nikolas rose, pat o’malley,and mariana valverde, ‘governmentality’, annual reviewof law and social science 2 (2006) 83–104, 91. 14 eleonora rohland, sharing the risk: fire, climate and disaster: swiss re 1864-1906 (crucible books, 2011). 15 donald m. mccloskey, ‘the open fields of england: rent, risk, and the rate of interest, 1300-1815’, in david w. galenson (ed.), markets in history: economic studies of the past (cambridge university press, 1989), 5-51. 16 alan r.h. baker, “hail as hazard: changing attitudes to crop protection against hail damage in france, 1815-1914,” agricultural history review 60 (2013):19-36; capris di cigliero, saverio, saggio sullo stabilimento d’una cassa d’assicurazione mutua contro danni cagionati dalla grandine. torino: salla tipografia di domenico pane, 1830; david r. stead, “risk and risk management in english agriculture, c.1750-1850,” economic history review lvii (2004): 334-361; franz mauelshagen, “sharing the risk of hail: insurance, reinsurance and the variability of hailstorms in switzerland, 1880-1932,” environment and history 17 (2011): 171-91.   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    39   accompanied by a desire for the farmers and general to retain its leadership in the field in the face of potential new competitors and potentially to cover the large losses suffered in 1843. it is worth noting that farmers and general were a farming-oriented insurance company with policies particularly on life and fire, though also more specific areas like farming stock, a coverage that would lead to contracts being agreed for horses travelling overseas through to animals struck dead by lightning. hail insurance, however, (at least for the first three decades) turned out to be a profitable business with better rates of return than fire and life, despite the relatively small size of the industry. for the farmers and general, however, there was a clear geography of profitability from the hail business. this is both because the company attracted a large value in premiums in places like cambridgeshire, hampshire and oxfordshire, but also because loss rates varied widely with regular but smaller magnitude losses in counties like hertfordshire compared to more significant losses in places like huntingdonshire.17 the hail insurance business relied on the fact that hail was geographically specific and not a correlated risk in the way that for example disease that spread between cattle wiped out some livestock insurance businesses.18 hail insurance was transacted through company agents located through the agricultural regions of england and wales. engaging and retaining high quality agents was of considerable concern for the business for their ability to attract business, ascertain and determine the reliability of claims (sometimes with the direct aid of the directors of the company), and for prudent financial management. when formulating hail policies in the 1840s, there were considerable debates about the rates to apply and how to apply them. should insurance premiums be charged per acre or by the value of crop, for example, and while initial experiments with crop value were used, by 1843 acreage rates became the norm. for example, the board meeting of the 17th february 1844 agreed a hail prospectus for the upcoming season in which hail rates were fixed at 6d per acre for wheat, barley and peas, and 4d per acre for oats, beans, turnips and potatoes.19 extra rates applied if the amount of produce per acre exceeded a particular amount, as payout was attached to the losses suffered and the more intensively the area was farmed, the greater the potential loss. three main competitors emerged to the company (the general, county and midland offices) after 1845, but agreed rates for crops between offices were normal at least until the mid-1860s. white straw crops, peas and beans were thus deemed to be universally vulnerable to hail across england and wales, and companies competed to attract business through other means like agent networks and promotion of their companies financial security vis-a-vis their competitors. the nature of this company should not mislead us into thinking of its directors as conservative bumpkins. william shaw, one of the founders and the managing director of the company, was also the founder and editor of the most scientific agricultural journal of the day, the mark lane express and agricultural journal, also editing the farmer’s magazine; he and 17 this is based on a dataset created by the authors from the annual accounts of the hail business produced by the farmers and general company from 1849-1901. this shows the profits and losses per county per year, which enables the construction of maps of hail contracts and payouts, a subject for a future publication. 18 h.a.l. cockerell and edwin green, the british insurance business, sheffield academic press, 1994; and cornelius walford, insurance cyclopedia (1871) vol. 1 charles and edward layton, london and j h and c m goodsell, 468-473. 19 farmers and general minute book 4, 1844.   kneale  and  randalls,  invisible  atmospheric  knowledges   40         another founder director, cuthbert johnson, translated and published von thaer’s influential principles of agriculture, posting a copy – along with the company’s hail insurance prospectus to every farmers’ club in the country.20 as a founder of the english (later the royal) agricultural society and supporter of local farming societies, shaw played an important role in improving the nature and reputation of agricultural science, and 10% of the first profits declared by the farmers and general were devoted to forming farmer’s clubs and awarding prizes “for the encouragement of deserving agricultural labourers”.21 the company could also call upon great reserves of veterinary skill both within and beyond the boardroom; their truro agent in 1844 was the famous veterinarian william karkeek, for example.22 it is clear that shaw and his co-directors were at the centre of a network of agricultural expertise of national and indeed international extent. however, when we consider hail insurance in terms of meteorology, two things are striking: first, the lack of engagement between insurers and meteorologists in the period. second, despite this, the insurers and agents practiced a form of meteorological expertise in both testing claims by looking at damaged crops and through identification of potentially risky areas (though they reserved judgment on whether that risk was meteorological or not). first, we have found no evidence that hail insurers sought any kind of meteorological expertise to enable them to statistically identify areas of greater or lesser risk, or equally turn the insurance datasets into such data for meteorological enquiry. partly this may be attributed to a turn towards more dynamical modes of meteorological reason in search of physical explanations of e.g. storm pathways rather than statistical ones. that said, severe thunderstorms and hail events attracted the attention of members of the meteorological society of london (1823-1843) in the early years of the hail business, not least exemplified by j. maverley’s paper read on july 16th 1841 detailing a thunderstorm on may 27th that year that had seen five cows killed by lightning and caused thousands of pounds worth of damage to glass because of hail.23 the use of statistics was, however, visible in related fields, as we will see when we turn to climatology in a moment, even if it did not rely on probabilistic forms of calculation. so while hail insurers created what we might term an ‘invisible meteorology’, a meteorology that is translated through and represented by insurance statistics, it remained detached from scientific considerations of weather and climate. while we don’t wish to labour the point here, we suggest that there are many such ‘invisible meteorologies’, not least in amateur collections, and shipping that were their own ways of constructing knowledge about meteorology which may have not have had scientific approval or legitimation, but were other ways of identifying, considering and managing atmospheric risks.24 20 ernest clarke, ‘shaw, william (1797–1853)’, rev. nicholas goddard, oxford dictionary of national biography, oxford university press, 2004 [http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/25272, accessed 3 feb 2014] 21 prospectus, in ‘volume of prospectuses of assurance societies sent by the clerical, medical and general life assurance society r826-g’, 1834-1851, ioa. 22 linda warden, ‘karkeek, william floyd (1802–1858)’, oxford dictionary of national biography, oxford university press, 2004 [http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/15184, accessed 12 nov 2013] 23 george j. symons, ‘the history of english meteorological societies, 1823 to 1880’, quarterly journal of the meteorological society 7 (1881): 65-99, 83. 24 endfield and morris, ‘exploring the role of the amateur’.   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    41   hail insurance was an intensely geographical business based on types of agriculture and weather patterns. insurers created a statistical expertise about hail distinctive from the meteorological networks emerging from the 1820s and most especially the 1850s onwards.25 for example, this close attention to potential climatological risks in a particular part of england was noted in debates about the prices of crops in cambridgeshire and huntingdonshire. several companies – royal farmers and their main competitors the county hail-storm insurance company (hertford), general hailstorm assurance society (norwich) and the midland counties insurance company (lincoln) – reported major losses from hail damage in these area in the 1860s, and shared information in an attempt to better understand the risk so that it could be priced more carefully, even exploring the utility of re-insuring each other.26 from 1866 onwards the farmers and general directed most of their attention to the area around the small town of somersham in huntingdonshire, close to the border with cambridgeshire. john reddish, secretary of the farmers and general, analyzed the data of losses within and outside a radius of 12 miles of somersham station, arguing that risks were considerably greater within the radius than outside it. using loss figures much as life insurers would use mortality statistics, reddish found that in huntingdonshire the company lost £818 outside the radius but lost £1125 pounds within 12 miles of somersham; cambridgeshire policies outside somersham made a profit of just over £855, but lost £93 within the 12 mile radius. somersham was a very risky place to be a hail insurer.27 the question is: was this because somersham was climatically dangerous or because the crops there were unusually exposed or valuable? there is limited evidence of a search for explanations (climatic or agricultural) for this pattern, but reddish gathered evidence in an attempt to delineate economically productive climates from economically destructive ones, without causally explaining the reasons why. furthermore, while reddish did not seek a meteorological explanation and while his analysis of the figures was not, properly speaking, actuarial, it focused on the profitability of the business in other areas compared to somersham. in 1873, for example, he noted, “the somersham district was again unprofitable.”28 other firms also sought further information; in 1870 the general office insisted that new policies within 12 miles of somersham must furnish information on how long the land had been farmed by the applicant, whether it had ever sustained hail damage, when this had occurred, if this loss had been compensated, and by whom.29 the effort to review the accounts of offices covering somersham and the changes in pricing to deal with risk both affirm that the company did not simply perceive this to be bad luck, but rather was a risk that needed to be effectively priced and managed. again we see evidence being used to inform an expertise about hail risk, but not in the scientific way associated with the ‘probabilistic revolution’. firms were also concerned to verify claims, looking for signs that damaged crops had really suffered from hail; they were similarly careful when checking claims for livestock killed by lighting. there is rarely much discussion of the agents’ investigations in the minute books of the royal farmers office, but the fact that some claims were refused when the damage was 25 anderson, predicting. 26 royal farmers and general minute book 15b, 1862. 27 royal farmers and general board meeting reports, 1866. 28 royal farmers and general board meeting reports, 1873. 29 royal farmers and general board meeting reports, 1871.   kneale  and  randalls,  invisible  atmospheric  knowledges   42         suspected to be caused by wind suggests that agents had a good sense of what hail damage looked like. in the september of 1851, the company refused to pay a claim submitted through the rotherham agent, “the damage not having been caused by hail”, though more than a dozen other claims were paid across the country during that month and an additional £15 7/6 was paid to the hail surveyors for assessing these damages.30 there are similar examples with veterinarians within the company examining the health of horses before they were insured for transportation overseas, for example before agreeing to insure the life of a horse travelling to sydney in 1841, and in examining the causes of death of livestock by lightning; in 1870 the company refused to pay out on a horse said to have been struck by lightning when it was “found to have been killed by injury alleged to have been caused by fear occasioned by the storm.”31 likewise, the vulnerability of different crops to hail was carefully considered and at various moments, particular crops grabbed the actuaries’ attention; the market value of each crop had to be set against its particular susceptibility to hailstones. john reddish’s notebook contains notes on the nature of kohlrabi, for example, followed by the injunction to “see enquiry form attached to ansley’s hail proposal 1864 st ives”, suggesting that he had felt the need to consider whether this unusual crop needed a different premium.32 when an agent in cambridgeshire received a proposal to insure kohlrabi in 1870, he wrote to advise reddish that “i have spoken to two experienced seed growers today. they both say that kohl rabi seed is not quite so easily shelled as sweed [sic] turnip seed, but i think the greater value of kohl rabi seed (the present price being 4/per lb) that 15/per acre is not too high a premium.”33 this practical expertise – of recognizing and recording the effects of hail – also represents a particular kind of meteorological knowledge, but one removed from victorian meteorological scientific circles. while we have yet to find any maps of hail risk in the records of these companies (not surprising in the earlier years given that the first map of english rainfall is claimed to date to 1840),34 an agricultural map of risk could be produced that would highlight areas of heightened risk of claims and areas of particularly vulnerable crops. insurers had an understanding of hail damage and areas of greater risk, but they did little to try to predict areas of greater hail storms. this makes hail insurance records rather less than satisfactory proxies for meteorological records. indeed, in a brief comparison of our dataset from royal farmers and general with records of the most severe hailstorms in the uk, apart from the 1843 event, there is only limited correlation between those recorded hailstorms and hail claims.35 this could be a facet of just this one company’s exposure, but we’re inclined to think that hail insurance claims are affected by too many geographically specific factors (crop types, densities, farmers social standing, agent networks etc.) to be a reliable, stand-alone environmental history dataset. thus, we suggest hail insurers practiced a kind of ‘invisible meteorological expertise’ that showed some understanding 30 royal farmers and general minute book 12, 1850-1. 31 royal farmers and general minute book 2, 1841-42; royal farmers and general minute book 17, 1869-74. 32 john reddish's notebook 213a, 33 ibid., 227. 34 symons, “the history of english meteorological societies”, 81. 35 data taken from the tornado and storm research organisation (torro) list of major hailstones, which is based on j.d.c. webb, d.m. elsom and g.t. meaden, ‘severe hailstorms in britain and ireland, a climatological survey and hazard assessment’, atmospheric research 93 (2009): 587-606. this is compared with the data we collated from the royal farmers and general company (see note 17).   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    43   of hail and its impact, plus its geographical nature. however this was not translated into an actuarial understanding of those areas where claims were greatest, and there was no attempt to examine the meteorological causes of hail exposure. climate, insurance and mortality statistics another important connection between insurance and atmospheric science is that of life insurance for people travelling or living overseas which drew on and created evidence about relationships between climate and health. here we illustrate how climate and health were conceived of through different forms of quantitative analysis and the way these were then taken up by insurance companies (there is not space in this article to explore all the various debates about climatic determinism and theories of climate and health more broadly). for insurers, the important point about climate and health was to determine the effects of climate on mortality and the causes of disease. one form of analysis was to draw on cartesian geographical understandings of climate, based on a latitudinal approach in which climates at certain latitudes proved more dangerous than at others.36 this approach however was challenged from both climatological (especially the suggestion that isothermal maps might be more relevant) and medical (especially acclimatization) angles. a detailed statistical approach was required to disentangle climate and mortality statistics. as far back as 1750, thomas short had displayed a considerable statistical expertise on weather and mortality, concluding for example that on days where there was any type of precipitation, rainy days were most injurious to health, while misty or showery days were least injurious, and that “an atmosphere loaded with moisture, is unhealthy as it relaxes the body, diminishes perspiration and adds to the fluids” especially when mixed with “exhalations from dead or living animals or their excrements.”37 but it is in the 19th century that this reasoning comes to its epiphany. in 1835 adolphe quetelet, the great belgian statistician whose work was so fundamental for actuarial statistics, bemoaned the lack of comparative reliable data which could have been compared to different mortality rates: climatology, taking the word in its most extended sense, is a science still too little advanced to engage our attention here: we absolutely want data, and particularly comparative data, with respect to countries out of europe and even some european countries themselves, where political sciences have not been sufficiently cultivated.38 so while it was clear that mortality was greater in the south of europe rather than the north or centre, quetelet could not say if this was due to natural climate or to political and economic differences.39 36 georgina endfield and samuel randalls, ‘climate and empire’, in james beattie, edward melillo and emily o’gorman (eds), eco-cultural networks and the british empire: new views on environmental history, (bloomsbury, 2014), 21-43. 37 thomas short, new observations, natural, moral, civil, political and medical, on city, town and country bills of mortality. to which are added, large and clear abstracts of the best authors who have wrote on that subject with an appendix on the weather and meteors. london: 1750, 66. 38 m.a. quetelet (orig. 1835), a treatise on man and the development of his faculties. (william and robert chambers, 1842), 26. 39 ibid., 26-7.   kneale  and  randalls,  invisible  atmospheric  knowledges   44         however information was already being collected, and much of the early work on this relationship came from the development of ‘vital statistics’ as a governmental tool. british parliamentary reports on mortality amongst british troops in the colonies, prompted in the first instance by the 1835 medical board set up to investigate insanitary conditions in bahamas, are an excellent example. henry marshall, deputy inspector-general of army hospitals and alexander murray tulloch were both involved in these enquiries into the health of the troops, and tulloch paid due attention to climate and acclimatization in his first report. while european mortality rates were very high in these latitudes, particularly deaths from fevers, tulloch’s analysis of the evidence from different caribbean stations suggested that neither high temperatures nor excess moisture were very important causes of fever, though perhaps the two together might be.40 so while antigua and barbadoes [sic] had higher temperatures than dominica, tobago, jamaica, or the bahamas, army sickness and mortality rates were three times as bad in the second set of stations.41 tulloch’s next reports on the health of troops in britain, the mediterranean, and british north america rejected arguments about the origin of fevers in marshy soil and excessive vegetation, and his west africa report reiterated this even more forcefully.42 in this way simple relationships between latitude, temperature, humidity and mortality were thrown into question; comparative studies of mortality were developing knowledge of the relations between disease and climate. tulloch showed a strong grasp of statistics and his work was well received; the statistical society of london used it as a model for their study of the east indies, produced by colonel william henry sykes. by the 1860s other connections between life assurance, medicine and meteorology or climatology had emerged. robert scoresby-jackson’s on the influence of weather upon disease and mortality, published in 1863, developed insights into the use of mortality figures to calculate the healthiness or otherwise of different places, but it is worth noting that he had been taught by robert christison, an edinburgh professor of medicine who commanded great respect in the life assurance industry, and scoresby-jackson’s medical climatology is dedicated to alexander keith johnston, his wife’s uncle and professor of physical geography at edinburgh university.43 robert dundas thomson brought together a similar set of interests as medical officer for an insurance office, the president of the british meteorological society in 1863 until his death in 1864, a famous sanitarian and the first president of the metropolitan association of medical officers of health.44 40 statistical report on the sickness, mortality, and invaliding among the troops in the west indies, gbpp 1837-8 xl. see michael j. cullen, the statistical movement in early victorian britain, barnes and noble, 1975, 49. 41 gbpp 1837-8 xl, 101-02. 42 gbpp 1839 xvi; gbpp 1840 xxx. 43 robert e scoresby-jackson, on the influence of weather upon disease and mortality, (edinburgh, neill and company, 1863). elizabeth baigent, ‘jackson, robert edmund scoresby(bap. 1833, d.1867)’, oxford dictionary of national biography, oxford university press, 2004; online edn, may 2006 [http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/14548, accessed 12 july 2013] 44 w. w. webb, ‘thomson, robert dundas (1810–1864)’, rev. richard hankins, oxford dictionary of national biography, oxford university press, 2004 [http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/27322, accessed 17 nov 2009].   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    45   likewise buchan and mitchell’s paper on ‘the influence of weather on mortality from different diseases and at different ages’ published in 1875, used data from 1845-1874 to show that deaths in london had a strong seasonal component with deaths from all causes peaking november through march, with a smaller peak in the height of summer.45 the data enabled buchan and mitchell to identify diseases that predominated under different climatic types in london: dry and warm weather led to diarrhoea; dry and cold weather aided gout and suicide; while cold and wet weather advantaged influenza, heart disease, rheumatism and measles to name just a few. relations between seasonality, climate and health are evident in the work of john tripe (medical officer of health for hackney and president of the royal meteorological society 187173), who had previously produced a report on the medical meteorology of london in 1862 and who compiled and published a report of the health capabilities of seaside resorts in 1878 that showed the connections between climate and health in terms of the health-giving properties of certain climates in winter time.46 indeed it is clear in the comments following the latter paper, that other meteorological society members were also doctors, not least theodore williams (president of the royal meteorological society in 1892-93 and 1900) who commented that he and his father evaluated the climatic data of places before sending patients to them.47 seasonality is also visible in some of the tables and graphs produced by a.h. smee, the medical officer of the gresham and other insurance companies. weekly deaths from bubonic plague at bombay were at their height in february and march for five successive years during the 1896-1901 epidemic, leading smee to suggest that rainfall might control the spread of disease.48 theories of disease were being transformed in the nineteenth century, however, as environmentally determined theories (like buchan and mitchell’s) were supplemented with and later largely replaced with germ theories. for example, for the tropical colonies germ theories altered the way authorities governed the risks of residing in new climates. the risks for the european body in hot climates was increasingly moving away from a fear of climatic vulnerability to an understanding that through self-governance, the european could keep themselves safe. this is a feature of some life insurance notes e.g. that a prudent traveller would know to avoid new orleans during the height of the summer. prudent behaviour – moral, social, alcoholic – would be of as much relevance as the climate. climate risk in life insurance british life assurance was well established by the later decades of the nineteenth century with timothy alborn estimating that 30 per cent of the british population – usually men had 45 alexander buchan and arthur mitchell, “on the influence of weather on mortality from different diseases and at different ages,” scottish meteorological society 4 (1875): 187-265. 46 john w. tripe, “on the winter climate of some english sea-side health resorts,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 4 (1878): 111-135. 47 ibid., 129. 48 a.h. smee, tables and diagrams illustrating the comparative death rates from various causes and in various occupations. rixon & arnold, london, 1901, 52-55. walford, cyclopedia, (1871), vol 1, p. 589.   kneale  and  randalls,  invisible  atmospheric  knowledges   46         life insurance policies of some kind by 1890.49 in 1859 more than half of the world’s life insurance companies were british, and these offices held 59% of all policies across the world.50 however the industry also grew rapidly in the us after the civil war and again during the gilded age, and offices also prospered in british colonies towards the end of the century.51 british life assurance firms had long worried about their policyholders travelling overseas, and had charged higher premiums to cover the extra risk, just as they dealt with other risks like poor health or dangerous occupations. the farmers and general company agreed that extra payment would be only required if policyholders travelled beyond the uk or continental europe between st petersburg and gibraltar.52 policies were void if policyholders did not secure the permission of the firm before travelling. however while the principle of charging an addition for overseas risk was straightforward enough, calculating this extra rate was not, and this became a pressing issue as colonial and business travel grew and life insurance became affordable to a growing middle-class market. alborn notes that the conservative rates charged in the 1840s gave way to more relaxed prices and conditions in later decades. the rate charged for a return trip from dover to paris via calais in 1821 would cover a four-month trip in the zambesi district in 1900, for example.53 but this was not an industry-wide response to new evidence; “a pioneering company would offer bold reductions in foreign premiums based on sketchy data and dare its competitors to follow suit”.54 sharon ann murphy notes that us firms also relied on educated guesses, while collecting any information that seemed helpful, and became increasingly confident that their own records could inform careful estimates of risk.55 so while firms may have had trouble finding enough mortality data to be able to make confident predictions of risk, it did not stop them setting rates, or gathering other kinds of data. there was clearly an institutional demand for information on climate. many of the works reviewed in the preceding section can be found in the library of the institute of actuaries, the english insurance industry’s centre of calculation from 1848 onwards, though it is not easy to establish when these were acquired. those works used comparative mortality figures, the building blocks of actuarial calculation, to assess healthfulness, making them easy to translate into tools for insurance. however it seems clear that while firms sought information on climate, their need for useful data was often frustrated and climate seems to have been only one of the factors used to quantify the risk of travel or ‘foreign residence’. mortality statistics were therefore the preferred way of calculating local risk, even if it meant that the exact causes of these risks remained mysterious. 49 ibid., 20. 50 ibid., 51. 51 sharon ann murphy, investing in life: insurance in antebellum america (johns hopkins press, 2010). 52 board meeting, 26th mar 1840, royal farmers minute book no. 1. 53 arthur h. bailey, ‘on the rates of extra premium for foreign travelling and residence’, journal of the institute of actuaries 15 (1869-1870), 77-94, 78; board meeting, 11th may 1899, sceptre life association minute book no. 4. 54 alborn, regulated, 120. 55 murphy, investing, 28.   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    47   in 1845 w. t. thomson, the actuary of standard life, concluded that the industry was charging excessively high fees for travel and residence.56 thomson and his colleagues, including henry marshall, deputy inspector-general of army hospitals, consulted different kinds of evidence to find a more accurate basis for these extra premiums, including the parliamentary reports on mortality amongst british troops in the colonies discussed above.57 marshall had in fact assisted tulloch with his first report on army mortality before being posted overseas. as one nineteenth-century historian of insurance noted, “[thomson’s] report embraced not merely statistical facts and figures, but the opinion of the most eminent medical men those countries was sought and obtained.”58 once this information had been collated and new actuarial tables produced, colonial standard, a subsidiary of standard life, was established in 1846. the new company hoped that its cheaper rates would give it an advantage over more conservative offices. risks were divided into four regions, defined in terms of broad geographical areas, latitude and season: class a: europe; north america north of the 38° latitude but not west of the mississippi; the cape colony south of the 30° latitude; australia and new zealand south of 30° latitude. class b: north america north of the 35° latitude but not to the west of the mississippi, and from november to june to the north of the 30° latitude; bermuda and south america south of the 20° latitude. class c: india, ceylon, mauritius and chinese treaty ports. class d: the west indies.59 other offices quickly adopted similar rates. eagle life claimed to have engaged in similar research before setting their premiums: “whenever correct grounds for calculation existed, on them the premiums have been founded. in all cases they have been cautiously compared and collated”.60 the us life insurance industry, based in north east cities, concurred with the colonial’s concern over life expectancy in the western and southern states and charged extra premiums south of the borders of virginia and kentucky (about 36. 5° latitude).61 some of the justification for these different zones came from medicine. in the 1860s discussions of climate began to appear in handbooks for medical examiners, written to advise ordinary practitioners on how to examine applicants for life assurance. it seems likely that these doctors learned a good deal about the risks of overseas climates through guides like this. in this way life assurance helped shape medical knowledge and practice in the everyday work of general 56 cornelius walford, insurance cyclopedia (1871) vol. 1 charles and edward layton, london and j h and c m goodsell, new york, 611-615. 57 michael moss, standard life 1825-2000, the standard life assurance company. edinburgh and london: mainstream publishing, 59. 58 walford, 611-12. 59 colonial standard’s regions of risk. moss, standard, 59. 60 eagle life assurance company prospectus, undated, ‘volume of prospectuses of assurance societies sent by the clerical, medical and general life assurance society r826-g’, 1834-1851, institute of actuaries. 61 murphy, investing, 34-35.   kneale  and  randalls,  invisible  atmospheric  knowledges   48         practitioners across britain, as alborn has argued it did for understandings of tuberculosis.62 one guide, written by william brinton, physician at several london hospitals and for the mutual life assurance society, noted “it is convenient to distinguish between the constitutional effects of mere climate, and the risk of diseases more or less endemic to the inhabitants of a given locality.”63 the former concerned “certain general influences of climate, concerning which we can group our knowledge into something more akin to law” – so that denizens of warm climates who moved to britain risked tuberculosis, but those from southern europe were less at risk of this as those from africa or central asia.64 in the case of the latter the doctor would “judge by the frequency and fatality of the endemic disease, how far it damaged the probabilities of life.”65 another handbook from the 1860s, by jonathan adams allen, professor at rush medical college, chicago, stressed that: “an acquaintance with the meteorological condition of particular localities, is of great importance. excessive thermometrical, barometrical and hygrometrical variations, in any particular locality, usually impair risks, by rendering them subject to various diseases.”66 as a result, he suggested, “without exact reference to isothermal lines, natives of the zone extending from the thirtieth to the fiftieth parallels of latitude, may be considered as the best risks.” 67 like brinton, allen also discussed the possibilities and risks of ‘acclimation’ (acclimatisation). this question, which had been examined by tulloch in his pioneering work on army mortality, remained important for medical referees into the twentieth century, as it suggested that surviving initial infections as well as adapting to temperature and humidity reduced the risks for the transplanted european. by the 1880s, commentators like jeremiah levan were convinced that “in climate we find one of the most powerful agencies in producing as well as modifying disease… certain diseases are engendered by the effects of peculiar climates, whilst others, again, are removed and relieved by the same agency.”68 he urged the examiner to estabish whether applicants were travelling to ‘torrid’ or ‘temperate’ climates. by the 1890s medical and actuarial workers were actively sharing information. james edward pollock and james chisholm considered adding a section on climate and the diseases of south africa, canada, australia and india and other british colonies to the fourth edition of their text for medical examiners, following the expansion of insurance in those places – but had abandoned it as too big a subject.69 luckily the colonies were “well supplied with medical men of high intelligence, whose reports we are daily receiving, and who are steadily adding to our knowledge”.70 pollock and chisholm’s confidence suggests that companies felt able to make climate a productive source for the calculation of risk. 62 timothy alborn, ‘insurance against germ theory: commerce and conservatism in late-victorian medicine’, bulletin of the history of medicine 75 (2001): 406–445; alborn, regulated lives. 63 william brinton, (1863) on the medical selection of lives for assurance. (john hopper, 1863), 29. 64 ibid. 65 ibid. 66 jonathan adams allen, medical examinations for life insurance, 1st edition. (horton and leonard, 1867), 13. 67 ibid. 68 jeremiah r. levan, a treatise on medical examination for life insurance, (william f fell, 1885), 23, 24. 69 james edward pollock and james chisholm, medical handbook of life assurance for the use of medical and other officers of companies, (cassell and company ltd, 4th edition, 1895), iii. 70 ibid., iii, iv.   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    49   by this point there was a certain amount of agreement between british firms about safe and risky latitudes. between 1882 and 1903 the prudential, the biggest british firm at the turn of the century, produced a map showing the dangerous latitudes as a ‘pink zone’. after a year with the company, policyholders could apply to live anywhere outside the pink zone; but five years with the company, medical approval and extra premiums were required to live within it, and the gold coast and new orleans were still off limits.71 fig. 5.1. special instructions and tables, prudential assurance company ltd. february 1884, p. 143, with the permission of the prudential assurance company. this map (fig. 5.1) suggests a neat system where latitude, climate, and disease were proxies for each other, where life assurance translated data between medicine, climate science, and vital statistics. medical men working in tropical epidemiology used company records as evidence, as robert christison, colonial life’s medical officer, did in 1864, and doctors in the tropics updated firms with new findings and suggestions.72 however some actuaries were worried about the neatness of these boundaries and the character of this system; in 1869 arthur bailey, was already describing this development of “bounding the prohibited regions” as “convenient but not scientific”, noting that firms did not always follow their own rules: “when… the prohibited regions are once touched, all system is at an end.”73 71 the industrial branch, prudential assurance company, agent’s instructions. 1882. 72 walford, insurance, 615-16. 73 bailey, ‘rates’, 78.   kneale  and  randalls,  invisible  atmospheric  knowledges   50         it also proved impossible to separate climate from other factors when calculating risk, just as brinton had suggested. so while james meikle urged actuaries to consider the work of von humboldt and other “writers on tropical climates”, he also discussed the diet and customs of different places, the habits of individuals, and the records of existing firms or of state censuses. much of these last matters did not mention climate, or even disease, but dealt in mortality rates alone as a proxy for risk.74 and in 1908 edward brockbank stated that the tropics were “dangerous for several reasons, the chief of which are the heat, and the endemic diseases, sanitation and food.”75 the discussion of acclimation also makes it clear that the nature and habits of the applicant was another key factor, and by the early twentieth century the proposer’s ‘race’ was also felt to be increasingly important.76 in conclusion, then, life assurance companies drew on different resources to make climate a useful consideration in calculating risk – climatology; the influence of climate on disease and health; and mortality records for different localities – though these were not analysed in terms of probability. while climatological data were considered – for example in tulloch’s pioneering work, or in the medical examiner’s handbooks – the condition of contemporary medical knowledge made it hard to establish relationships between life expectancy and climatic phenomena like temperature or humidity. given the industry’s obsession with mortality rates, it is not surprising that these were often used as proxy indicators of healthiness; unpacking these black boxes would have required a good deal of work, and in many places neither the data nor the scientific understanding of their relation to the problem were available. creating case-by-case evaluations of these risks was also a major undertaking for firms, so it is not surprising that they adopted zones of different premiums; here again latitude often stood in for climate data, though it is clear that the zones also reflected anglo-saxon prejudices as well as geopolitical and other matters. the ease of translation between these terms (climate, mortality, latitude, disease, sanitation) was both an advantage and a recurring concern. perhaps this wide-ranging search for ideas with which to inform the calculation of risk reflects the essential prudence of the actuarial outlook; it may just have easily have reflected the difficulties involved in making this kind of information useful for insurers. conclusions in this paper we have showed that insurance companies in the nineteenth century collected, collated and synthesized data to produce their own forms of experiential expertise of the impact of weather and climate on their insurance businesses. in neither hail insurance nor life insurance for travellers overseas could insurers be said to be leading scientific debates, but they did create their own form of expertise not dissimilar to forms of amateur expertise, though this time for a greater calculative, if not actuarial purpose.77 insurers didn’t count as such in terms of 74 james meikle, ‘on the additional premium required for residence in foreign climates. an address to the actuarial society of edinburgh’, jia 19 (1875-1876) [jan 1876], 268-294, 286-288. 75 e.m. brockbank, life insurance and general practice, oxford medical publications, (henry frowde, hodder and stoughton, 1908), 271-2. 76 ‘abstract of the discussion,’ in winter, arthur t., ‘notes on mortality and life assurance in india’, journal of the institute of actuaries, 43 (1909) 365-407, 398. thomas david lister, medical examination for life insurance, (edward arnold, 1921). 77 clark, betting.   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)    51   actuarial calculation when it came to weather and climate risks, but they did draw on a wide array of statistics and expertise as inputs to decision-making about pricing contracts, even if in the end they tended to use existing mortality figures as proxies for risk, and their broader experience of risky environments and situations counted far more than actuarial expertise did, just as was the case for geoffrey clark’s eighteenth-century firms. as arthur bailey complained in 1869, firm’s rates for travel were “arbitrary and unscientific”, though we would disagree with his suggestion that they were “for the most part little better than random guesses made on no intelligible principles.”78 the principles were there; but they were neither fully scientific nor actuarial. as such, one could suggest that insurers became mere users of the science being produced and of little interest therefore to historians of these sciences. nonetheless we argue that historians of the atmospheric sciences should be interested in these kinds of expertise for two reasons. first, amateurs and other organizations have played important roles not just in collecting data, but also in changing the mindset about governance of weather and climate risks. indeed as sarah dry shows the emergence of weather forecasts unsettled easy distinctions between individuals’ responsibilities and the responsibility of the state to ensure protection against weather risks.79 while meteorological statistics brought a form of central organizing power to the meteorological department, the local fisherfolk were enabled to form their own local expertise that enabled individual responsibility to be maintained in the event of failure of the calculative system. the project of meteorology was bound up in the social and political context of the time such that other forms of meteorological expertise continued to proliferate and even inform the scientific debates. in our case, insurers utilized this expertise and combined it with their own historical experience to map out areas of higher climatic risk than others even if they were less worried about causality than their business profitability. in the case of life insurance, the british companies displayed a particularly imperial approach to pricing risk that complemented but was also distinctive from traditional academic concerns of connections between climate, race and empire. second, it is useful to approach the question of science and society from the other side, in this case particular companies figuring out how to deal with weather and climate risks in a practical sense. in this paper we explored a somewhat invisible expertise, one that drew in evidence from scientific authorities, but which utilized it within the industry without projecting this back out into the scientific debates even as it had consequences on people’s lives. for example, a person travelling overseas faced the very real additional premiums that an insurance company wished to charge based on its understanding of climate and health risks drawn from the company’s own experience and that of external advice. the fact that thousands of farmers, travellers, physicians, and insurance agents had to engage with this knowledge – consulting prospectuses like the colonial’s, maps like that produced by the prudential, or handbooks like those of pollock and chisholmsuggests that insurance may well have popularised these ideas of weather and climate far beyond the places of expert knowledge. to understand the social place of meteorological and climatological expertise historically, it is useful to trace out the networks, connections and expertise beyond the narrowly-defined scientific community and to tell historical studies about expertise of the atmosphere from the bottom-up. not least they may surprise us 78 bailey, ‘rates’, 78. 79 dry, ‘fishermen and forecasts’, 17.   kneale  and  randalls,  invisible  atmospheric  knowledges   52         with the extent to which they shape the actually experienced relationships and understandings of weather and climate, perhaps even more than those of official scientific circles. microsoft word 01krider.doc proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology 1.1 (2004) 1. benjamin franklin and the first lightning conductors e. philip krider institute of atmospheric physics the university of arizona tucson, az 85721-0081, u.s.a. introduction the philadelphia experiments and observations on electricity, as led and communicated by benjamin franklin,1 were important in the history of science because some were new and novel and because their interpretations helped to stimulate the development of electricity as a science and the beginnings of modern physics.2-4 this work also led to the sentry box and kite experiments5 that proved once and for all that thunderclouds are electrified and that lightning is an electrical discharge. the latter discoveries, in turn, validated the key assumptions that lay behind franklin’s supposition that tall, grounded rods would protect structures from lightning damage. here, we will trace how franklin’s ideas evolved and the design of the first protective rods, and then we will describe some key improvements that franklin made to his design, after experience was gained through practice in the years from 1752 to 1762. experiments and observations in philadelphia benjamin franklin and his colleagues6 began experimenting with static electricity in about 1746, after they saw some electrical demonstrations and parlor tricks that were then popular in europe. they received apparatus from peter collinson, a fellow of the royal society of london, and instructions on how to use it came from an article in the gentleman’s magazine published in london.7 this article was actually an imperfect translation of some german work8 that had been reviewed by a swiss working in göttingen, and was published by professors in holland.9 it is interesting to note that even in the 18th century, experiments in leipzig and berlin could influence work in england and north america. the initial philadelphia experiments were described in a series of five formal letters that franklin sent to collinson in the years from 1747 to 1750. lightning is mentioned in most of them in one way or another. in april 1751, collinson published benjamin franklin and the first lightning conductors 2 these letters in a small (86-page) pamphlet entitled experiments and observations on electricity, made at philadelphia in america, by mr. benjamin franklin, and communicated in several letters to mr. p. collinson, of london, f.r.s.; this was soon translated into french and later into german and other languages. 1 in the first paragraph of the first letter,10 franklin described “the wonderful effect of pointed bodies, both in drawing off and throwing off the electrical fire.” he showed that discharges to and from points work quickly and at considerable distances, that sharp points work better than blunt points, that metal points work better than dry wood, and that the pointed object should be touched (i.e., grounded) in order to obtain a maximum draw effect. next, franklin introduced the idea that rubbing glass in a friction machine does not actually create electricity; rather, at the instant of friction, the glass simply takes “the thing” out of the rubbing material. whatever is added to the glass, an equal amount is now missing from the rubber. the terms plus and minus were used to describe these electrical states, and the glass was assumed to be electrified positively and the rubbing material negatively. the letter concludes with a comparison of lightning to electrical flashes on a gilded china plate or on the gold trim of a leather book. in the second letter,11 franklin combined the concept of equal positive and negative charges with an assumption that glass is a perfect insulator and described the electrical behavior of a leyden jar, the first electrical capacitor. he noted the importance of grounding in both charging and discharging the jar, and he made an analogy between electricity and lightning when he described a discharge through the gold gilding on the cover of a book that produced “a vivid flame, like the sharpest lightning.” in his third letter,12 franklin began to use terms like charge and discharge in describing the leyden jar and showed that the electrification of such a device resides entirely in the glass. next, he described an electrical battery wherein several capacitors were charged in series “with the same effort as charging one” and then discharged in parallel to provide the force of all at once “through the body of any animal forming the circle with them.” later, franklin used such a battery to simulate the effects of lightning in a variety of materials. in the fourth letter,13 franklin introduced the concept of the sparking or striking distance. if two gun barrels that are electrified “will strike at two inches distance, and make a loud snap; to what great a distance may 10,000 acres of electrified cloud strike and give its fire, and how loud must be that crack!” based on his previous experience with the power of points, franklin then speculated that when an electrified cloud passes over a region, it will draw electricity from and discharge to high hills and trees, lofty towers, spires, masts of ships, chimneys, etc. this supposition led to some practical advice that is still valid today; namely, that it is dangerous to take shelter under a single, isolated tree during a thunderstorm; it is safer to remain in an open field. franklin also suggested that it might be safer to stay in the open because there one’s clothing will tend to be wet, and wet clothes will provide a conducting path to ground that is outside the body. his laboratory analogy was “a wet rat cannot be kill’d by the exploding electrical bottle, when a dry rat may.” in the fifth letter,14 franklin attempted to explain the power of points. he described how discharges between smooth or blunt conductors occur with a “stroke and crack,” whereas sharp points discharge silently and produce large effects at greater distances. he then described what he viewed to be a “law of electricity;” namely, that proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 3 points will tend to “draw on and throw off the electrical fluid with more or less power, and at greater or less distances, and in larger or smaller quantities in the same time” as the angle of the point is more or less acute. given franklin’s obvious interest in lightning and the power of points, it was a short step to the lightning rod: “i say, if these things are so, may not the knowledge of this power of points be of use to mankind; in preserving houses, churches, ships, etc. from the stroke of lightning; by directing us to fix on the highest parts of those edifices upright rods of iron, made sharp as a needle and gilt to prevent rusting, and from the foot of those rods a wire down the outside of the building into the ground; or down round one of the shrouds of a ship and down her side, till it reaches the water? would not these pointed rods probably draw the electrical fire silently out of a cloud before it came nigh enough to strike, and thereby secure us from that most sudden and terrible mischief!”15 clearly, franklin’s initial supposition was that the silent discharges from one or more sharp, metallic points might reduce or eliminate the effects of any electricity in the cloud aloft and thereby reduce or eliminate the chances of being struck by lightning. from his earlier experiments, franklin knew that point discharges worked best when the conductor is grounded, and he also knew that tall objects were preferred places for lightning to strike. therefore, even if the point discharges did not neutralize the cloud, a tall, grounded conductor would provide a safe path for the lightning to go to ground. in the very next paragraphs, franklin made the following proposal: “to determine the question, whether the clouds that contain lightning are electrified or not, i would propose an experiment to be try’d where it may be done conveniently. on the top of some high tower or steeple, place a kind of a sentry box (see figure 1) big enough to contain a man and an electrical stand. from the middle of the stand let an iron rod rise, and pass bending out of the door, and then upright 20 or 30 feet, pointed very sharp at the end. if the electrical stand be kept clean and dry, a man standing on it when such clouds are passing low, might be electrified, and afford sparks, the rod drawing fire to him from the cloud. if any danger to the man be apprehended (tho’ i think there would be none) let him stand on the floor of his box, and now and then bring near to the rod, the loop of a wire, that has one end fastened to the leads; he holding it by a wax-handle. so the sparks, if the rod is electrified, will strike from the rod to the wire and not affect him.”16 it should be noted that the purpose of the sentry box (and also the kite) experiment was to determine if thunderclouds are electrified; for this, the rod (or the conducting kite string) must be carefully insulated from ground. for lightning protection, the rod should be grounded. people in london were amused when franklin’s suggestions about electrical rods were read to the royal society, and they did not publish them in their philosophical transactions. unbeknownst to franklin or collinson at the time, on may 10, 1752, a retired french dragoon acting on instructions from thomas-françois dalibard, the translator of franklin’s book from english into french, succeeded in drawing sparks from benjamin franklin and the first lightning conductors 4 a tall iron rod that was carefully insulated from ground (see figure 1) at the village of marly-la-ville near paris. fig. 1. the apparatus used in the sentry box experiment at marly-la-ville, france. the rod was about 13 m (40 ft) tall and was insulated from ground by the wine bottles, e. (from expériences et observations sur l’électricité.... trad. de l’anglais par m. dalibard, seconde édition, paris, vol. ii, 1756, p.128.) the sparks drawn at marly-la-ville proved, for the first time, that thunderclouds are electrified and that lightning is an electrical discharge. this experiment was sensational and was verified within days by delor in paris and soon by many others throughout europe. when dalibard and delor reported their results to the french academy of sciences, they acknowledged that in doing these experiments, they had followed the path that franklin had traced for them “…en suivant la route qu’il nous a tracée, j’ai obtenu une satisfaction complette.”17 meanwhile in philadelphia, franklin drew sparks from the conducting string of his famous kite (insulated from ground by silk proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 5 ribbon) in june or july, 1752, after the success at marly-la-ville but before he knew about it.5 people in london were surprised by the experiment at marly-la-ville, and the following year the royal society of london awarded franklin its copley gold medal. several authors have noted that franklin was not the first to compare sparks with lightning nor to hypothesize that lightning might be an electrical discharge.18-21 in fact, almost every experimenter who had described electrical discharges before franklin had, at one time or another, mentioned the analogy with lightning. franklin’s unique contributions were the suggestions (a) that tall, insulated rods could be used to determine if thunderclouds are electrified and (b) that tall, grounded rods could be used to protect against lightning damage. after franklin heard about the success at marly-la-ville, he installed a tall, insulted rod on the roof of his house to study the characteristics of thunderstorm electricity. the conductor ran down a stairwell to ground but had a gap in the middle, as shown on the left of figure 2. a small ball was suspended between chimes mounted on each end of the gap, and the ball was placed so that the chimes would ring whenever an electrified cloud passed overhead. franklin used this apparatus to measure the polarity of thunderclouds and to compare the properties of atmospheric electricity with the electricity that was generated by friction. he found that the two electricities were the same and “…that the clouds of a thundergust are most commonly in a negative state of electricity, but sometimes in a positive state,” 22 a result that was regarded as definitive for the next 170 years. at this time, franklin thought that all discharges went from positive to negative so he concluded “that for the most part in thunder strokes, ‘tis the earth that strikes into the clouds, and not the clouds that strike into the earth.”22 judging by his later correspondence, franklin was fascinated by this discovery, and he postulated that the effects of a lightning discharge would be very nearly the same whether the current flowed up from the ground or down from the cloud. benjamin franklin and the first lightning conductors 6 fig. 2. benjamin franklin shown next to the apparatus that he used to study thunderstorm electricity. a grounded rod of the 1762 design is shown in the background on the right. (an 18th century engraving after a painting by mason chamberlain, 1762.) from 1749 to 1753, rev. ebenezer kinnersley, a leading electrical experimenter and friend of franklin, traveled the east coast of north america giving lectures and demonstrations on electricity.23 he told people that lightning is an electrical discharge, and he showed them how grounded rods would protect model houses from sparks that simulated lightning. these lectures were advertised widely and represent the first public disclosure that grounded rods will protect buildings from lightning damage. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 7 first lightning protection system in the late fall of 1752, franklin published the following in poor richard’s almanack for 1753: “how to secure houses, etc. from lightning it has pleased god in his goodness to mankind, at length to discover to them the means of securing their habitations and other buildings from mischief by thunder and lightning. the method is this: provide a small iron rod (it may be made of the rod-iron used by the nailers) but of such a length, that one end being three or four feet in the moist ground, the other may be six or eight feet above the highest part of the building. to the upper end of the rod fasten about a foot of brass wire, the size of a common knitting-needle, sharpened to a fine point; the rod may be secured to the house by a few small staples. if the house or barn be long, there may be a rod and point at each end, and a middling wire along the ridge from one to the other. a house thus furnished will not be damaged by lightning, it being attracted by the points, and passing thro the metal into the ground without hurting any thing. vessels also, having a sharp pointed rod fix’d on the top of their masts, with a wire from the foot of the rod reaching down, round one of the shrouds, to the water, will not be hurt by lightning.”24 his opening phrase anticipated a religious objection to protective rods that would later appear among the populace. in the late summer or fall of 1752, protective rods were installed on the spires of the academy of philadelphia (later the university of pennsylvania) and the pennsylvania state house (later independence hall). the modern terminology25 for the three key elements in franklin’s design of a protective rod are: (1) one or more air terminals that are mounted on the roof. (2) horizontal roof conductors and vertical down conductors connect the air terminals to (3) a grounding system that provides an electrical connection to earth. because franklin thought that point discharges might aid in providing protection, the first air terminals were thin, sharp needles mounted on an iron rod. the first down conductors were chains of nail rods, each several feet long, mechanically linked or hooked together as shown in figure 3. (figure 3 also shows that the first down conductors could be attached to the inside walls of a tall tower.) the first grounding system was simply a nail rod driven 3 to 4 feet into moist earth. benjamin franklin and the first lightning conductors 8 fig. 3. fragments of a down conductor, found under paneling and plaster on the inside wall of the northwest corner of the tower stairwell, on independence hall, philadelphia. the inset on the right shows the hook connection in greater detail [independence national historical park collection]. in june of 1753, franklin published a “request for information on lightning” in the pennsylvania gazette and newspapers in new york and boston: “those of our readers in this and the neighboring provinces, who may have an opportunity of observing, during the present summer, any of the effects of lightning on houses, ships, trees, etc. are requested to take particular notice of its course, and deviation from a strait line, in the walls or other matter effected by it, its different operations or effects on wood, stone, bricks, glass, metals, animal bodies, etc. and every other circumstance that may tend to discover the nature, and compleat the history of that terrible meteor. such observations being put in writing, and communicated to benjamin franklin, in philadelphia, will be very thankfully accepted and gratefully acknowledged.”26 proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 9 in 1753, dr. john lining repeated franklin’s kite experiment in south carolina, but when he tried to install a rod on his house, the local populace objected. they thought that the rod was presumptuous, i.e., that it would interfere with the will of god, and that it would attract lightning.27 similar fears would be repeated in most countries of europe.28 in april of that year, franklin commented on presumption in a letter about the abbé nollet, the leading electrical experimenter in france and a strong opponent of protective rods: “…he speaks as if he thought it presumption in man to propose guarding himself against thunders of heaven! surely the thunder of heaven is no more supernatural than the rain, hail, or sunshine of heaven, against the inconvenience of which we guard by roofs and shades without scruple. but i can now ease the gentleman of this apprehension; for by some late experiments i find, that it is not lightning from the clouds that strikes the earth, but lightning from the earth that strikes the clouds.”29 improvements in the next years, franklin continued to gather information and study reports about lightning and lightning damage, and in 1757 he went to london as an agent of the pennsylvania assembly. in march of 1761, kinnersley sent franklin a detailed description of a lightning flash that struck the house of william west in philadelphia.30 the west house had been equipped with a protective rod that was very similar to the installation described in poor richard’s almanack. at the time of the strike, an observer reported that “the lightning diffused over the pavement, which was then very wet with rain, the distance of two or three yards from the foot of the conductor.” an investigation showed that the top of the brass needle had been melted, as shown in figure 4, but otherwise, there was no damage to the house. kinnersley concluded that “surely now it will be thought expedient to provide conductors for the lightning as for the rain.” benjamin franklin and the first lightning conductors 10 fig. 4. kinnersley’s sketch of how lightning melted the top of a sharp, brass wire that terminated an early air terminal. initially, the length of the wire was 10 inches; after the lightning, it was about 7.5 inches. (from [1], plate ii, p. 353) prior to receiving kinnersley’s letter, franklin had received descriptions of two similar strikes to houses that had been protected in south carolina.31 in one case, the lightning had evaporated the points and a length of the brass down conductor. in the other, three brass points mounted on top of an iron rod, each about seven inches long, had evaporated, and the iron down conductor, about half an inch in diameter and in several sections with links hooked together, had its links and joints unhooked by the discharge. almost all the staples that held this conductor to the outside of the house had also been loosened or started. “considerable cavities” been made in the earth near the ground rod (sunk about three feet into the earth), and the lightning had also produced several furrows in the ground “some yards in length.” franklin was pleased by these reports because, even though the conductor “when too small, may be destroyed in executing its office,” the grounded rods had indeed saved the houses from substantial damage. in his reply to kinnersley,32 franklin transcribed the reports from south carolina and then recommended larger, more substantial conductors and a deeper, more extensive grounding system to reduce surface arcs and keep any explosions in the soil away from the foundation of the house. kinnersley’s letter was read to the royal society and subsequently published in the philosophical transactions.33 proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 11 since all reports from north america showed that grounded rods did protect houses and their occupants from lightning-caused damage, franklin sent improved specifications for “the shortest and simplest method of securing buildings, etc. from the mischiefs of lightning”34 to the scottish philosopher, david hume, in january of 1762, together with excerpts from kinnersley’s letter and the reports from south carolina. this letter was subsequently read to the philosophical society in edinburgh and published by that society (in 1771) 35 together with a comment by prof. james russell. in the letter to hume, franklin recommended much more substantial, steel air terminals, 5 to 6 feet long and tapered to a sharp point. if the building has any dimension greater that about 100 feet, franklin stated that a pointed rod should be mounted at each end and that there should be a conductor between them. all roof and down conductors should be at least half an inch in diameter, continuous, and stapled to the outside of the building. if any links or joints must be made in these conductors, these should be filled with lead solder. the ground connection should be a one-inch diameter iron rod driven 10 to 12 feet into the earth, and if possible, this rod should be at least 10 feet from the foundation. franklin also recommended that the ground rod be painted, in order to minimize rust, and stated that a connection to the water of a well is best, if a well is nearby. an illustration of the upper portion of a 1762 protective rod is shown on the right side of the background in figure 2. franklin published his reply to kinnersley and the reports from south carolina in the 1769 edition of experiments and observations together with some “remarks”36 on the construction and use of protective rods. he began the remarks with an acknowledgement that “like other new instruments, this appears to have been at first in some respects imperfect; and we find that we are, in this as in others, to expect improvement from experience chiefly…” he then repeated his recommendations to mount pointed air terminals 5 or 6 feet above the highest part of the building, that “a rod in one continued piece is preferable to one composed of links or parts hooked together,” and that ground rods should be deep and kept away from the foundation of the building. conclusion today most authorities agree that the main functions of lightning rods and the associated conductors are to define and control the points where lightning will attach to a structure and then to provide safe paths for the current to flow to ground.25 in his reply to kinnersley in 1762, franklin noted that “indeed, in the construction of an instrument so new, and of which we could have so little experience, it is rather lucky that we should at first be so near the truth as we seem to be, and commit so few errors.” 37 lucky indeed today virtually every lightning protection code in the world still recommends franklin rods for protecting ordinary structures, and the basic elements of their design and installation are, in essence, the same as franklin’s specifications of 1762.38-42 acknowledgement the author is grateful to penepole h. batchelor of the independence national historical park for calling his attention to figure 3. benjamin franklin and the first lightning conductors 12 endnotes 1. i. bernard cohen, benjamin franklin’s experiments: a new edition of franklin’s experiments and observations on electricity, harvard univ. press, cambridge, ma, 1941. 2. i. bernard cohen, franklin and newton: an inquiry into speculative newtonian experimental science and franklin’s work in electricity as an example thereof, am. philos. soc., philadelphia, pa, 1956, part four. 3. j. l. heilbron, electricity in the 17th and 18th centuries: a study of early modern physics, univ. california press, berkeley, ca, 1979, part four. 4. j. l. heilbron, elements of early modern physics, univ. california press, berkeley, ca, 1982, chapter iii. 5. i. bernard cohen, benjamin franklin’s science, harvard univ. press, cambridge, ma, 1990, chapter 6. 6. principally ebenezer kinnersley, philip syng, and thomas hopkinson. 7. j. a. leo lemay, ebenezer kinnersley: franklin’s friend, u. pennsylvania press, philadelphia, 1964, 54–59. 8. principally by georg mathias bose, christian august hansen, and johann heinrich winkler. 9. j. l. heilbron, “franklin, haller, and franklinist history”, isis, 68, 1977, 539–549. 10. franklin documents have been taken from the papers of benjamin franklin, ed. by l. w. labaree, w. b. wilcox, c. a. lopez, b. b. oberg, e. r. cohn et al., yale university press, new haven, ct, vol. i, 1959 to vol. 35, 1999 with some capital letters suppressed to conform with modern usage. in the following notes, these volumes will be referred to as bf papers; the volume number will be in italics, and the page numbers will be inclusive. the text of the first letter is in bf papers, 3, 126-135. 11. ibid., 3, 156-164. 12. ibid., 3, 352-365. 13. ibid., 3, 365-376. 14. ibid., 4, 9-34 15. ibid., 4, 19. 16. ibid., 4, 19-20. 17. ibid., 4, 303. 18. cohen, 1941, op. cit., 21-56. 19. cohen, 1956, op. cit., chapter 11. 20. heilbron, 1979, op. cit., chapter 13. 21. cohen, 1992, op. cit., chapter 6. 22. bf papers, 5, 71. 23. lemay, op. cit., 62-81. 24. bf papers, 4, 408-409. 25. e. philip krider and martin a. uman, “cloud to ground lightning, lightning protection, and lightning test standards”, encyclopedia of electrical and electronics engineering, john wiley & sons, new york, 1999, 11, 350-357. 26. bf papers, 4, 510. 27. lemay, op. cit., 78. 28. cohen, 1990, chapter 8. 29. bf papers, 4, 463. 30. bf papers, 9, 282-293. 31. these reports came from john raven and william maine who lived near charleston. 32. bf papers, 10, 37-59. 33. phil. trans. (london), 53, 84-97, 1764. proc. ichm 1.1 (2004) 13 34. bf papers, 10, 17-23. 35. essays & obs. (edinburgh), 3, 129-41, 1771. 36. bf papers, 10, 55-59. 37. ibid., 50-51. 38. r. h. golde, lightning protection, chemical publ. co., new york, 1975. 39. national fire protection assn., lightning protection code, nfpa 780, quincy, ma, 1997. 40. norme française, installations de paratonnerres, nf c 17–100, paris, fevrier, 1987. 41. british standards institution, code of practice for protection of structures against lightning, bs 6651:1999, london, uk, 1999. 42. national standard of the people’s republic of china, design code for lightning protection of structures, gb 50057-94, beijing, 1994. microsoft word hom2vaquerofin.doc history of meteorology 5 (2009) 19 a note on a possible optic–atmospheric phenomenon in the iberian peninsula in the 13th century j.m. vaquero*, m.c. gallego**, and j.a. garcía** *departamento de física aplicada, escuela politécnica, universidad de extremadura, 10007 cáceres, spain, jvaquero@unex.es **departamento de física, facultad de ciencias, universidad de extremadura, 06071 badajoz, spain, maricruz@unex.es, agustin@unex.es historical documents that provide information about climate are tools that must be used by climatologists in their studies about past climate. nevertheless, these historical sources are difficult to find and must be interpreted with caution. in this aspect, the iberian peninsula is a privileged zone because important cultures have emerged in it. these cultures have left a rich historical and documentary heritage that has not been investigated yet from a climatic point of view. another interesting aspect is related to the impact that meteorological phenomena caused in great historical events. we can point out some interesting examples as mongol invasions of japan (neumann, 1975), crimean war (lindgrén and neumann, 1980), and the battle of trafalgar (wheeler, 1985, 1987). this study is aimed at the analysis of a possible atmospheric phenomenon that happened in the iberian peninsula in the 13th century. this claimed our attention from the beginning because of its similarity with joshua's miracle, the atmospheric nature of which has been analyzed by camuffo (1990a). this phenomenon was greatly discussed by some authors (elomaa, 1990; camuffo, 1990b). moreover, the possible atmospheric phenomenon that we are going to analyse is related to an important historical event: the christian conquest of seville. an ancient spanish legend narrates one of the more fantastic episodes of the "reconquest" of the iberian peninsula. during this epoch, christians fought against arabians, who stayed in the iberian peninsula for eight centuries (711-1492). during one of the regular skirmishes, christians routed their enemies. nevertheless, the sun was going to set immediately and, for that, the struggle would finish without a total christian victory. the christian officer in command, the master of the order of santiago, prayed to the virgin mary for stopping the sun. he shouted: "detén tu día" (stop your day). the miracle was produced, the day was extended until the christians defeated the moslems and that place was called "tentudía". there are several written references to the phenomenon. the oldest one is primera historia de la orden de santiago (orozco and parra, 1978), which is a manuscript from no later than 1488. the phenomenon is reported by very different authors vaquero, gallego and garcia, optic-atmospheric phenomena in 13 th century 20 (ver alaba, 1655; rivadeneyra, 1599–1601; pineda, 1627; ortiz, 1677; mariana, 1950; coria, 1608; rades andrada, 1980; caro de torres, 1629). there is no reference about the exact date of the phenomenon. historians date the episode about 1248, when the christian king fernando iii conquered seville city (terrón albarrán, 1986, tome i, pp. 459-464). the place where the phenomenon was observed is located in the iberian peninsula, in the nearby tentudía hills (38º 1' n, 6º 18' w). tentudía mountain is 1110 m height (the highest peak of badajoz province). establishing the nature of the phenomenon is not an easy result due to the temporal distance of the event and the kind of description about it that is possessed. in fact, this is a legendary event and it is very difficult to separate the reality and the fiction. terrón albarrán (1986, p. 461) try to know from the earliest sources the true historical facts and the legendary aspects. in any case, the tentudía case presents great similarities with that analyzed by camuffo (1990a). there are several opinions about the nature of the phenomenon reported by camuffo. the main two options are the meteorological and the astronomical origin of the phenomenon. according to camuffo (1990a), the event occurred at sundown, after an exceptional hailstorm, which left the ground of the valley where an army stayed covered with ice. this resulted in a big drop in the air temperature, forming the conditions for a "superior mirage". the other army was in another nearby place, untouched by hail, on hot soil, in the usual daytime conditions of "inferior mirage". when they reached the place of the enemy, their optical path inverted curvature, displacing upwards the sun, which was setting. on the other hand, elomaa (1990) comments that a large comet must have passed very near to our planet and disrupted its movement; a part of the stones dispersed in the neck and tail of the comet smote the surface of our earth a shattering blow. venus was that comet, and it became a planet in historical times. camuffo (1990a) replies that elomaa's comments was certainly fascinating, but unfortunately were based on an unrealistic hypothesis –venus was a comet– that has never been accepted by astronomers. in the case of tentudía, the astronomical explanation is more unlikely. an astronomical anomaly would have been reported in numerous studies all around the world. however, there is no comet reported which would have been seen in the iberian peninsula around 1248. yeomans (1991) reported comets in 1240, 1242, 1245, and 1264. only those that happened in 1240 and 1264 could have been seen from europe. no comets around 1248 are reported in the arabian sources either (vaquero et al., 2000). therefore, the meteorological nature seems to be the most realistic explanation despite the fact that the hail is not mentioned in the narrations of the episode of tentudía. in order to illustrate how the length of a day (δh) can be increased for different supposed positions of the sun, figure 1 has been displayed. this figure shows examples of the increase of the duration of the day if one observes the sunset when the real position of the sun is 10°, 5º or 1º under the horizon for a place located at 38° n of latitude. this increase of the duration of the day would vary, depending on the season of the year, between 50 and 58 minutes approximately for an astronomical height h=-10º, between 25 and 29 minutes for h=-5º, and between 5 and 6 minutes for h=-1º. these assumptions have been made according to the following expression: h hh h sincoscos cos    , history of meteorology 5 (2009) 21 where δh is the increase of the duration of the day, h the astronomical height, φ the latitude of the place, δ the astronomical declination, and h the hour angle. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360 day of year t im e (m in u te s ) 10º 5º 1º figure 1. increase of the duration of the day. in order that this kind of phenomena were produced in nature the atmospheric conditions must be really extraordinary. one could think about the existence of the meteorological conditions that provoke a great storm: the ground warming due to solar radiation, convective cells that induce the formation of cumulonimbus and the subsequent storm due to the prevailing atmospheric instability that will induce a negative temperature gradient with the height near the ground due to the possible evaporation of the rain droplets. under these conditions, taking into account the atmospheric refraction with the sun below the horizon, an observer over the ground can receive a ray of light that has passed through an atmospheric wave-guide produced by the extraordinary atmospheric conditions. the observer continues seeing the sun after the sunset with the subsequent extension of the day’s light. this meteorological origin can explain the lack of other reports of the phenomenon, since it has to do with local atmospheric conditions. this episode gives strength to the meteorological nature of similar phenomena, one being that reported by camuffo. bibliography camuffo, d., 1990a: a meteorological anomaly in palestina 33 century ago: how did the sun stop? theor. appl. climatol., 41, 81-85. camuffo, d., 1990b: reply to comments on: a meteorological anomaly in palestina 33 century ago: how did the sun stop? theor. appl. climatol., 42, 198-199. vaquero, gallego and garcia, optic-atmospheric phenomena in 13 th century 22 caro de torres, f., 1629: historia de las órdenes militares de santiago, calatrava y alcántara. madrid. coria, f., 1608: descripción e historia general de la provincia de extremadura. manuscript property of biblioteca colombina de sevilla. elomaa, e., 1990: comments on: a meteorological anomaly in palestina 33 century ago: how did the sun stop? theor. appl. climatol., 42, 197. lindgrén, s. and neumann, j., 1980: great historical events that were significantly affected by the weather: 5, some meteorological events of the crimean war and their consequences bulletin of the american meteorological society, 61, 1570–1583. mariana, j., 1950: historia general de españa. volume ccxi. biblioteca de autores españoles. first edition was made in toledo in 1601. neumann, j., 1975: great historical events that were significantly affected by the weather: i. the mongol invasions of japan bulletin of the american meteorological society, 56, 1167–1171. orozco, p. and parra, j., 1978: primera historia de la orden de santiago. diputación provincial de badajoz. manuscript property of real academia de la historia. introduction, transcription and notes by marqués de siete iglesias. ortiz de zúñiga, d., 1677: anales eclesiásticos y seculares de la muy noble y muy leal ciudad de sevilla. madrid. pineda, j., 1627: memorial de la excelente santidad y heroicas virtudes del señor rey don fernando iii de este nombre. sevilla. rades andrada, f., 1980: chronica de las tres órdenes y cavallería de santiago, calatrava y alcántara. madrid. facsimile reprinted of 1572 toledo edition. rivadeneyra, p., 1599-1601: flos sanctorum o libro de las vidas de los santos. madrid. terrón albarrán, m. (dir.), 1986: historia de la baja extremadura. 2 vols. badajoz, real academia de extremadura de las letras y las artes. vaquero, j. m., gallego, m. c. and cobos, j. m., 2000: sobre los cometas en el rawd alqirtas. al-qantara, xxi(1), 201-204. ver alaba, f., 1655: reglas y establecimientos de la órden de caballería del glorioso apóstol santiago. madrid. wheeler, d. a., 1985: the weather of the battle of trafalgar weather, 40, 338–346. wheeler, d. a., 1987: the trafalgar storm: 22–30 october 1805 met. mag., 116, 197–205. yeomans, d. k., 1991: comets. a chronological history of observations, science, myth, and folklore. wiley science editions. front cover relocating meteorology edited by martin mahony & angelo matteo caglioti history of meteorology vol. 8, 2017 james r. fleming, editor-in-chief history of meteorology volume 8, 2017 martin mahony and angelo matteo caglioti guest editors james rodger fleming editor-in-chief history of meteorology is the peer-reviewed journal of the ichm. © ichm 2017 issn 1555-5763 proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology cover image: fred decker and fred jensby conducting meteorological research atop mary’s peak with radar van, march 1960. courtesy of oregon state university archives. history of meteorology 8 (2017) ! ! ii this page is intentionally left blank history of meteorology 8 (2017) ! ! iii contents pages preface, call for papers and style guide v-vii relocating meteorology 1-14 martin mahony & angelo matteo caglioti unsettling gilded-age science: vernacular climatology and 15-34 meteorology in the “middle border” joseph giacomelli “the ozone of patriotism”: meteorology, electricity, and the 35-53 body in the nineteenth-century yellowstone region kelsey matson redeeming belgian science: periodic phenomena and global 54-73 physics in brussels, 1825-1853 kevin donnelly theories of “reprecipitation” and climate change in the 74-94 settler colonial world meredith mckittrick colonizing the free atmosphere: wladimir köppen’s ‘aerology’, 95-123 the german maritime observatory, and the emergence of a trans-imperial network of weather balloons and kites, 1873-1906 robert-jan wille meteorology as nationalism on the german atlantic expedition, 124-144 1925-1927 penelope k. hardy losing the field: franz thorbecke and (post-)colonial 145-158 climatology in germany philipp lehmann asian extremes: experience, exchange and meteorological 159-178 knowledge in hong kong and singapore c.1840-1939 fiona williamson and clive wilkinson history of meteorology 8 (2017) ! ! iv assembling the weather: expertise, authority and the negotiation 179-201 of trans-tasman aviation forecasts matthew henry scientific forecasting? performing objectivity at the uk’s 202-221 meteorological office, 1960s-1970s janet martin-nielsen special supplement in the year 2017: a soviet fantasy of the future 222-224 james r. fleming history of meteorology 8 (2017) ! ! v preface this themed issue of history of meteorology grew out of a session at the annual conference of the american association of geographers in san francisco, 2016. the session, on ‘historical geographies of environmental knowledge: science, space and power’, brought home to us how there’s an increasing momentum around efforts to view the histories of meteorology and climatology in geographical and spatial terms. in our introductory essay, ‘relocating meteorology’, we sketch out some of the broader contours of this move, and the rationale behind the development of this themed issue. soon after the san francisco conference a call for papers was produced, and we were overwhelmed with the positive response it received. there were far more innovative and interesting papers proposed than we could ever hope to publish in a single journal issue; there was some natural attrition during the production process, but we’re conscious of the fact that the scholarship represented here is only a sample of the work being done on these themes by various people the world-over. the call clearly tapped into a desire within the community to give new visibility to this kind of work, and it was a delight to be able to work with such an array of high quality scholarship, and with so many dedicated authors, throughout the editorial process. one of the most heartening parts of the whole process has been working with a number of new and emerging voices in the field, and the capacity to give such voices a platform is great testament to the important work done by this journal, and by the ichm more broadly, in building and maintaining a vibrant scholarly community. it is an exciting time to be working in the history of meteorology, and we hope that readers will enjoy and find inspiration in the work presented here. acknowledgements we would like to take this opportunity to extend our thanks to all of those who contributed their time and expertise to the review process, as well as to jim fleming and the ichm for supporting this project from conception to completion. our biggest thanks must go to our contributors though, whose dedication to the project, patience with the editorial process, and general scholarly brilliance is a credit to the field. history of meteorology 8 (2017) ! ! vi history of meteorology call for papers articles on the history of meteorology and related sciences are now being accepted on a rolling basis for consideration in history of meteorology; so too are proposals to edit special issues. manuscripts should be based on original research and present a novel thesis; they must be engaging, clearly written, and fully documented, following the style guide below. authors are reminded that international and interdisciplinary perspectives are encouraged. all papers will be subject to peer review. because this is an electronic journal, it is possible to publish color illustrations and experiment with alternative media such as audio and video files and databases. history of meteorology has a stable url at http://meteohistory.org and has been assigned issn 1555-5763 by the u.s. library of congress. it is currently being indexed by two leading services: isis current bibliography of the history of science and meteorological and geoastrophysical abstracts. queries or manuscripts should be directed to the editor-in-chief, jim fleming, e-mail: jfleming@colby.edu history of meteorology 8 (2017) ! ! vii style guide manuscripts for history of meteorology are to be submitted electronically to the editor in ms word format (please ask in advance about other formats). before publication, authors must certify that their work is original and that all necessary permissions have been acquired. format paper size: u.s. letter margins: 1.0 inch on all sides headers and footers: 0.5 inch (left blank except for preliminary pagination) line spacing: double font: text: 12 point times new roman; captions: 11 point times new roman section headers: use bold section headers paper length: less than 10,000 words, including citations. ask if your manuscript is longer than this. figures and tables figures must be provided as separate image files (jpeg or tiff) with a resolution of at least 300 dpi. both figures and tables must be mentioned in the text (e.g. fig. 1) before their appearance in the paper. figure captions appear below the figure in 11-point type with a hanging indent: fig. 1. caption descriptive of the image but does not repeat what was said in the text of the paper. image courtesy of (or by permission of) xxx. tables must be carefully formatted in advance by the author. titles appear above the table in 11-point type: table 1. title of table (use hanging indent if it is a long title). citations citations may be either endnotes, numbered sequentially, or references (author date) listed alphabetically at the end of the paper. any major style, consistently applied, is acceptable. each citation must provide name of author/editor, full title of the work, place, publisher, date, and page references. titles of books and journals are italicized, not underlined. archival and manuscript material must contain a full description in the first citation. use of abbreviations (e.g. amer. j. sci.) is encouraged, as is the short reference format for subsequent citations of a text. endnotes are not meant to be discursive. microsoft word flemingrev3.doc history of meteorology 5 (2009) 126 the international bibliography of meteorology: revisiting a nineteenth-century classic james rodger fleming science, technology and society program colby college, waterville, maine, usa jfleming@colby.edu the international bibliography of meteorology, published in 1994, is a new edition of a nineteenth century bibliography supervised by oliver l. fassig and issued in four volumes by the u.s. army signal corps between 1889 and 1891. the original volumes are not easy to find, read, or use. they were lithographed in small quantities on acidic paper. only a few copies are still in existence and, for the most part, are now in poor condition. the 1994 edition, prepared by roy e. goodman and me, is still in print and is available in 120 research libraries and via interlibrary loan. this essay is a reintroduction to the history and importance of the project. a perusal of the bibliography is a humbling experience in the richness, breadth and value of past observations. the volumes contain over 16,000 items on temperature, moisture, winds, and storms, “from the beginning of printing to 1889,” with two-thirds of the entries in languages other than english and ten percent of the entries dated before 1750. meteorological and geo-astrophysical abstracts called the effort “the most ambitious and intensive bibliographic project ever undertaken in meteorology.”1 documented here are accounts of environmental changes prior to 1890, temperature and rainfall records, descriptions of hurricanes, snowstorms, shipwrecks, acid rain events, and numerous other topics of interest to researchers in such diverse fields as agriculture, forestry, exploration, geography, hydrology, oceanography, geology and geophysics, maritime history, environmental history, literature and folklore. extinct meteorological instruments—for example, espy's nepheloscope of the 1840s and the “rain-band” spectroscope of the 1880s—are also represented here. some sections, such as terrestrial radiation (volume 1), showers of miscellaneous matter (volume 2), general atmospheric circulation (volume 3), and development of the laws of cyclonic storms (volume 4), provide starting points for thematic historical investigations. other sections of the bibliography document the geographical distribution of temperature, moisture, winds and storms across five seas and seven continents. the bibliography also contains very useful citations to specialized lists, tables and bibliographies such as hermann hager's “list of famines, severe winters &c. from a.d. 1100 to 1315” and andreas poëy's “chronological table, comprising 400 cyclonic hurricanes which have occurred in the west indies and 1 meteorological abstracts and bibliography 6 (1955): 85. the american meteorological society's meteorological and geo-astrophysical abstracts (boston, 1950) indexes the current literature of meteorology and related fields. fleming, international bibliography of meteorology 127 in the north atlantic within 362 years, from 1493 to 1855,” published in english, french, and spanish. below, reprinted from the 1994 edition, is my “historical introduction” to the volumes. a mystery remains, however, since the massive original card catalogue containing over 60,000 titles by about 13,000 authors has not been found. historical introduction the signal office and the bibliography of meteorology the u.s. army signal office was established during the civil war. from 1870 to 1891 the signal office served as the nation's weather service, providing “telegrams and reports for the benefit of commerce and agriculture,” collecting weather data from across the country, and issuing indications and probabilities to the general public. the signal office also cooperated with meteorological investigators around the world and supported a scientific research program of its own. by way of introduction, here is a brief history of the events leading up to the creation of the bibliography of meteorology by the u.s. army signal office. a.j. myer and the u.s. army signal corps in 1860 albert james myer, 2 an assistant surgeon in the army medical department and an accomplished telegrapher, became the army's first signal officer, assigned to the navajo expedition of 1860-61 in new mexico. major myer's signaling system, known today as “wig-wag,” employed flags by day and torches by night. it provided a reliable and effective line-of-sight system of communication. at the outbreak of the civil war myer returned to washington and served as chief signal officer of the army of the potomac. he was soon placed in charge of signal instruction for all departments of the union army. in 1863 congress established a separate signal corps for the duration of the war with colonel myer as its chief signal officer. near the end of 1863, however, a heated conflict erupted between the signal officer and the united states military telegraph over the use of civilian telegraphers. myer was relieved of his command and demoted. only after the war was he reinstated as chief signal officer and promoted to brevet brigadier general by the new secretary of war, u.s. grant. myer returned to active duty in 1867. with his position restored, his promotion in hand, and his reputation intact, he now faced the task of rebuilding the signal corps and redefining their mission for peacetime service. he established a camp of signal instruction near washington, d.c. and convinced the military academies at west point and annapolis to adopt his system. he also assumed sole 2 the personal papers of albert j. myer (1828-1880) are located at the u.s. army military history institute, carlisle barracks, pa. and in the manuscripts division, library of congress. myer's military service records and most of his official papers as chief signal officer (rg-111) and head of the national weather service (rg-27) are in the national archives and records administration. on myer's life see paul j. scheips, “albert james myer, founder of the army signal corps: a biographical study” (ph.d. dissertation, american university, 1966); and paul j. scheips, “'old probabilities': a. j. myer and the signal corps weather service,” arlington historical magazine 5 (1974): 29–43. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 128 command of electric telegraphy within the army. congress, however, had provided no legislative authority for a separate signal corps. the signal corps as the national weather service in december 1869 congressman halbert paine of wisconsin introduced a bill to establish a national storm warning service.3 because of their prior involvement in meteorological research, both the smithsonian institution and the army medical department, were considered likely candidates to organize the new system. the final version of the bill, however, named the secretary of war as the responsible party. the chief signal officer immediately called on congress to stake his claim. paine recalled later that myer “was greatly excited and expressed a most intense desire that the execution of the law might be entrusted to him.”4 the weather service bill was ready-made for an aggressive administrator looking for a mission. myer defined storms as the “enemy” of commerce and argued that the signal corps could use telegraphy to track their movement and provide meteorological intelligence: “the telegraph can announce meteorological observations, statistics, and reports giving the presence, the course, and the extent of storms... and their probable approach, as it would, in time of war, those of an enemy.”5 congress was persuaded by myer's zeal, signaling expertise, and the promise of military discipline in the system. the first national weather service was established in 1870 in the war department under the direction of the chief signal officer.6 with generous support from congress, the signal office budget soared from $5,000 in 1869 to $400,000 by 1874. during the same period myer's command expanded from three civil war veterans to over five hundred college educated observers. the signal office had become a major military and scientific service, providing “telegrams and reports for the benefit of commerce” and daily weather predictions to the public. because of his access to commercial telegraph lines, an aggressive construction program of military telegraph lines along the eastern seacoast and into the southwest and northwest frontiers, and, during national emergencies, a direct line to the white house, myer soon found himself at the center of an electric intelligence network spanning the nation. the men of his command served as both meteorological observers and at times as secret service agents reporting to him on “peacetime” enemies such as striking workers in the rail strikes of 1877, indian uprisings in the 3 congressional globe, 41st cong., 2d sess., 90, pt. 1, p. 177. 4 paine to duane mowry, milwaukee, wisc., oct. 8, 1903, quoted in eric r. miller, “new light on the beginnings of the weather bureau from the papers of increase a. lapham.” monthly weather review 59 (1931): 68; also cited in lewis j. darter, jr., “the origin and development of the weather bureau,” in darter, comp., list of climatological records in the national archives (washington, d.c., 1942), 9. 5 albert j. myer to congressman halbert e. paine, january 18, 1870, “letters... relative to storm telegraphy,” u.s. house of representatives, ex. doc. 10, pt. 2, 41st cong., 2d sess., p. 22. 6 on the founding of the national weather service see james rodger fleming, meteorology in america, 1800-1870 (baltimore: johns hopkins univ. press, 1990), 141ff. two standard histories of the weather bureau are gustavus a. weber, the weather bureau: its history, activities and organization (new york, 1922); and donald r. whitnah, a history of the united states weather bureau (urbana, ill., 1961). patrick hughes, a century of weather service: a history of the birth and growth of the national weather service, 1870-1970 (new york, 1970), is a valuable source of early photographs. see also joseph m. hawes, “the signal corps and its weather service, 1870–1890,” military affairs 30 (1966): 68–76. fleming, international bibliography of meteorology 129 southwest, and natural hazards to commerce and agriculture. signal service observers reported on the hatching and migration of locust swarms, on frost and drought in the cotton, corn and tobacco-growing regions, on hazards to shipping along the coast. mercantile interests were advised of weather conditions affecting the packing and shipment of perishable goods such as oysters, pork, and ice. sailors received notice of fogs, storms, and fair winds. insurance companies received data useful to them for setting rates for shipping. river reports warned of floods and low water conditions; railway reports announced heavy snows and track conditions; sanitary reports tracked the course of cholera and yellow fever epidemics in the interest of public health.7 international cooperation cooperation among national weather services was institutionalized in the latter third of the nineteenth century with the establishment of an international meteorological committee and more or less regular conferences among national representatives.8 in 1873 myer, representing the united states at the international meteorological congress in vienna, proposed that the weather services of the nations of the world prepare an international series of simultaneous observations to aid the study of world climatology and weather patterns.9 the result was the bulletin of international simultaneous observations published by the signal office from 1875 to 1889. the bulletin contained worldwide synoptic charts and summaries of observations recorded simultaneously at numerous locations around the world.10 in 1875 the signal corps became a bureau of the war department. it received a permanent enlisted force in 1878. in 1879 myer returned to europe as a delegate to the second international meteorological congress in rome. the international exchange of ideas, data, and publications by the various meteorological services resulted in a growing awareness of a need for comprehensive, reliable, and easily accessible information. at the rome meeting delegates agreed to prepare national catalogues of meteorological observations and lists of publications in the libraries of their national weather services.11 by far the most enthusiastic advocates of this bibliographic effort were 7 [albert j. myer], “some of the chief uses and adaptabilities of the signal office reports and publications,” typeset copy in albert j. myer papers, library of congress. for details see report of the chief signal officer in the annual reports of the secretary of war, 1871-1891. 8 see h. g. cannegieter, “the history of the international meteorological organization, 1872–1951,” annalen der meteorologie n.s., 1 (1963): 7–280, esp. 7–12; and world meteorological organization, one hundred years of international co-operation in meteorology (1873–1973), a historical review (geneva, 1973). international meetings were held in leipzig (1872), vienna (1873), paris (1878), rome (1879), berne (1880), copenhagen (1882), paris (1885), zurich (1888), paris (1889), chicago (1893), uppsala (1894), paris (1896), st. petersburg (1899), and paris (1900). for international meteorology before 1870 see james rodger fleming, “meteorological observing systems before 1870 in england, france, germany, russia, and the united states: a review and comparison,” wmo bulletin (forthcoming). 9 report of the chief signal officer for 1874, p. 505. 10 copies of the bulletin were included as appendices to the annual reports of the chief signal officer. 11 this was at the urging of dr. gustav hellmann of berlin. cleveland abbe and c.j. sawyer, “the signal service bibliography of meteorology,” bulletin of the philosophical society of washington 10 (1887), 20-28, published in smithsonian miscellaneous collections 33. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 130 gustav hellmann of berlin, g.j. symons of london, and cleveland abbe of washington. an act of february 24, 1880 established the rank of the chief signal officer as brigadier general. albert myer received that rank on june 16, 1880, just two months before his death. he was succeeded by a veteran of the civil war and indian wars, chief signal officer, general william b. hazen.12 cleveland abbe and the international catalogue of meteorological citations the proximate origins of a comprehensive catalogue of the meteorological literature of the world can be traced to the efforts of professor cleveland abbe, chief civilian scientist in the signal office. 13 in 1872 abbe had begun a private compilation of meteorological citations, largely based on the first six volumes of the royal society catalogue of scientific papers, which covered the years 1800 to 1863: i have during the past few years had copied out from the first six volumes of the royal society catalogue of scientific papers all titles of work relating to meteorology or its applications, intending this to be a first installment of a complete bibliography of meteorology of which it would form about one third or one fourth part. i have about 20,000 titles on cards 5 1/2 by 4 inches. these are at present arranged by authors' names, and although i have settled upon a plan of philosophical classification or index of subjects... i had not yet decided to arrange these cards—nor even whether it would be best to do so but whether to keep the subject index as an index only...14 abbe claimed the catalog cost him well over $800 to compile. seeking to recover his expenses, and hoping that it might be used as the basis for an international cataloging effort, abbe offered his catalog for sale: to professor julius hann of vienna, chair of the international meteorological committee; to dr. gustav hellmann, bibliographer and advocate of an international meteorological catalog; to general myer, his supervisor at the signal office; and to other scientists, including elias 12 the personal papers of william b. hazen (1830-1887) are in the library of congress and the archives center of the smithsonian institution's national museum of american history. his official papers are in the national archives. on hazen's life see william babcock hazen, a narrative of military service (boston, 1885); and paul hutton (ed.), soldiers west: biographies from the military frontier (lincoln: univ. of nebraska press, 1987). 13 most of the personal papers of cleveland abbe (1838-1916) are in the library of congress. smaller collections are located in eisenhower library at the johns hopkins university, at the cincinnati observatory, and in the library of the city university of new york. many of his official documents are in the records of the weather bureau (rg-27) in the national archives. many 19th century government scientists were given the rank of professor. on abbe's life see william j. humphreys, “biographical memoir of cleveland abbe, 1838– 1916,” u.s. national academy of sciences, biographical memoirs 8 (1919): 469–508, which contains abbe's curriculum vita and a bibliography with 290 items. there is a short article in the dictionary of scientific biography. truman abbe, professor abbe and the isobars: the story of cleveland abbe, america's first weatherman (new york, 1955), was written by his son who used his father's papers to prepare the book. 14 cleveland abbe to elias loomis, may 7, 1879, elias loomis papers, beinecke rare book and manuscript library, yale university. fleming, international bibliography of meteorology 131 loomis at yale. 15 finding no takers and facing delays with the international committee, abbe brought his catalog to the attention of his new supervisor, general hazen. he informed hazen that g.j. symons, publisher of the monthly meteorological magazine had also compiled a 34-volume catalog on astronomy, meteorology, and terrestrial magnetism comprising some 18,000 titles on meteorology alone, and that symons was willing to duplicate his catalog at cost.16 in 1881 general hazen ordered work to begin on an international catalog of meteorological citations to be modeled after “the index catalog of the library of the surgeon general's office.” it was to be a comprehensive catalogue of the meteorological literature of the world, “from the origin of printing to 1881.” the signal office purchased abbe's card catalog and offered to reimburse symons for the expense of copying citations from his catalog onto cards. c.j. sawyer, librarian of the signal office, was placed in charge of the preparation and compilation of the catalogue. he was responsible for the management of the project, the methods employed, and the accuracy of the details. in 1884, shortly after symons's catalog arrived from london, sawyer was relieved of his library duties and appointed bibliographer. the project was moved out of the library and into the study room, a division of the signal office under professor abbe reserved for basic research projects and exempt from the press of daily weather service business.17 this move also served to elevate the status of the project to that of a fundamental investigation into the compilation and categorization of meteorological literature. the international meteorological community welcomed the signal office effort and cooperated with it. mr. symons's catalog covered the libraries of the british meteorological office and the royal meteorological society in london, the societé météorologique de france in paris, the libraries of the poulkova and brussels observatories, and the manuscript collection of professor andreas pöey. dr. hellmann contributed 5,200 titles from his repertorium der deutchen meteorologie (leipzig, 1883). his work also served as a model for the larger international catalog. professor hann provided a catalog of the library of the zentralanstalt für meteorologie in vienna. professors heinrich wild and alexander woeikof surveyed the meteorological literature of russia.18 professor henrik mohn furnished a similar list for norway. broadening the international scope of the catalog were 196 unique danish titles from the royal library in copenhagen, 337 swedish titles from the library of uppsala university, polish literature extracted from the bibliografia polska, spanish 15 abbe and sawyer, “signal service bibliography,” 21; abbe to loomis, may 7, 1879. 16 on symons's contributions see symons's monthly meteorological magazine 17 (1882): 1, 129; and 18 (1883): 97, 135. for other contributors see “meteorological bibliography,” symons's monthly meteorological magazine 20 (1885): 161-62. 17 report of the chief signal officer for 1887, p. 39. abbe and sawyer, “bibliography of meteorology,” 22. 18 gustav hellmann was a prolific writer on meteorological subjects. julius hann (18391921) was director of the zentralanstalt für meteorologie in vienna from 1877 to 1897, and editor of the österreichische zeitschrift für meteorologie (later the meteorologische zeitschrift) from 1865 to 1920. heinrich wild (1833-1902) was director of the central physical observatory in russia from 1868 to 1895. alexander woeikof (1842-1916) was a noted russian climatologist. henrik mohn (1835-1916) was a dynamic meteorologist in norway. see kh. khrgian, meteorology: a historical survey vol. 1, 2d ed., transl. ron hardin (jerusalem, 1970); and gisela kutzbach, the thermal theory of cyclones: a history of meteorological thought in the nineteenth century. (boston, 1979). history of meteorology 5 (2009) 132 material from the library of the madrid observatory, portuguese titles from the lisbon observatory, additional german works from the library of the deutche-seewarte and the library of professor h.w. dove. citations were also received from other nations, including japan, romania, mexico, and south africa.19 in the next few years 5,000 new titles were added from recent editions of the royal society catalogue, 2,500 titles from reuss's repertorium commentationum, 1,000 titles from poggendorff's handwörterbuch, and other titles from dähuert's griefswald catalogue, the royal society general science catalogue, zuchold's bibliotheca-naturalis, and may's bibliography of electricity, among many other sources. the signal office also surveyed american libraries, contacted some 400 individual meteorologists, and re-indexed over 6,000 periodical volumes. in 1887 abbe could report: “the total number of titles in the office is about 48,000.... when it is remembered that the catalogue of the library of the royal meteorological society (1876) contained only 1,214 entries, one gets an approximate idea of what a great work the washington catalogue will be with about forty times that number.”20 although congress had not yet voted funds for the diffusion of this “useful knowledge,” abbe believed it would do so shortly. in preparation for publication abbe asked elias loomis at yale to check the “scientific accuracy and practicality” of his classification scheme for the bibliography and to suggest modifications.21 when the compilation was completed, the general bibliography of meteorology contained over 60,000 titles by about 13,000 authors. they were arranged in a card catalogue by subject and author. this monumental collection covered the printed literature from the origin of printing to the end of 1889 and included citations from all the nations of the world active in meteorological research. it contained information on, among other things, the relation of basic and applied meteorology to crop production, river and ocean navigation, flood and storm warnings, and epidemic diseases. table 1 shows the classification of the international catalog of meteorological citations. the four volumes of the bibliography that were issued (temperature, moisture, winds, storms) appear in bold and are underlined. the original card catalog, however, has not been found. the signal office did not fare well in the 1880s. its funding was reduced and some stations were closed. in 1882 secretary of war robert todd lincoln recommended an end to meteorology in the army. two years later a committee of the national academy of sciences recommended transfer of meteorology to civilian control22 and the “allison commission” began its congressional investigation of the scientific bureaus of the government, including the weather service of the signal 19 also contributing to the bibliography were dr. franc karlinski (1830-1906), poland; miguel merino, madrid observatory, spain; dr. joao carlos de brito capello (1831-1901), lisbon observatory, portugal; dr. georg von neumayer (1826-1909), deutche-seewarte, germany; dr. stefan c. hepites (1851-1922), romania; dr. j.g. gamble, south africa; dr. e.r.t. knipping, japan; robert lewis john ellery (1827-1908), australia; and c.g. fineman and claes annerstedt (1839-1927), sweden. 20 cleveland abbe, “the signal service bibliography of meteorology,” american association for the advancement of science, proceedings (1887): 100. 21 abbe to loomis, nov. 14, 1885, elias loomis papers, beinecke rare book and manuscript library, yale university. 22 for additional evidence see “records relating to the transfer of meteorological functions from the war department to the agriculture department,” 1887 (the “brown collection”), rg-27, national archives. fleming, international bibliography of meteorology 133 office. 23 in 1885 a controversy over the handling of the lady franklin bay expedition resulted in hazen's court-martial.24 considering the problems he was encountering as chief signal officer, finding funds from congress to publish the catalog of meteorological citations was not hazen’s first priority. 23 “testimony before the [allison] commission to consider the present organization of the signal service...” u.s. senate, misc. doc. 82, 49th cong., 1st sess. see also a. hunter dupree, science in the federal government: a history of policies and activities (cambridge, mass., 1957), 190, 215, et. seq. 24 see e.g., thomas jefferson mackey, the hazen court-martial: the responsibility for the disaster to the lady franklin bay polar expedition definitely established, with proposed reforms in the law and practice of courts-martial (new york, 1885). history of meteorology 5 (2009) 134 table 1. classification of the international catalogue of meteorological citations25 the only sections of the catalog issued in the 19th century were temperature (ii.a.1.), moisture (ii.a.2.), winds (ii.b.2.), and storms (ii.b.3.). i. general meteorology a. history and bibliography b. general and collected works c. organization and method d. instruments 1. general works, 2. meteorographs, 3. for temperature and radiation, 4. for moisture, 5. for pressure, 6. for winds, 7. for optical phenomena, 8. for electrical phenomena ii. theoreticalmeteorology a. physics of the atmosphere 1. temperature, 2. moisture, 3. pressure, 4. optical phenomena, 5. electrical phenomena b. mechanics of the atmosphere 1. general circulation, 2. winds, 3. storms c. cosmic relations of meteorology 1. influence of the moon, 2. influence of the planets, 3. influence of the sun spots, 4. phenomena attending eclipses iii. applied meteorology a. weather prediction b. agricultural meteorology c. medical meteorology d. climatology iv. terrestrial magnetism a. general b. observations, instruments, and methods c. variation d. distribution e. connection with meteorology v. observations (meteorological and magnetic) arranged geographically 25 this table is a composite of the classification scheme published in abbe and sawyer, “signal office bibliography,” 26-27 and that appearing in the bibliography of meteorology. fleming, international bibliography of meteorology 135 a.w. greely and the publication of the bibliography general adolphus w. greely,26 the celebrated arctic explorer, became the chief signal officer after general hazen died in 1887. greely argued strenuously that congress should publish the entire catalog, since it would be of great value, not only to scientific meteorology, but also to agriculture, forestry, commerce, engineering, and medicine. greely estimated the catalog had already cost the government between $12,000 and $15,000 to prepare and that it could be printed and distributed to the world, at a cost of about $10,000, “as a monument and evidence of the growing scientific tendency of this nation.”27 in 1888 and 1889 greely announced major changes in the project. c.j. sawyer had resigned to take a position in the patent office as an examiner. 28 sawyer's assistant, oliver l. fassig was promoted to signal office bibliographer and librarian.29 fassig and his assistant, harold e. hilton immediately began to compile a supplementary catalog of 5,000 cards for current use in the office.30 the u.s. congress, never a patron of basic scientific research, repeatedly declined requests from the signal office for funds to publish the general catalog. disappointed, greely reported in 1889 that one of the most important portions of the catalog—on temperature—would be lithographed at signal office expense: “in order that the most important parts for current work should be available for reference, such titles as bear on temperature have been type-written in lithographic ink, and a limited number of copies have been lithographed therefrom. as opportunity allows, a similar course will be followed regarding precipitation.”31 three more volumes of the bibliography of meteorology appeared: moisture (1889), winds (1891), and storms (1891). according to greely these volumes represented about one-fourth of all the titles in the general bibliography. approximately 50 percent of these titles were in the library of the u.s. signal office. # of titles # of authors part i temperature 4,400 1,800 part ii moisture 5,500 2,650 part iii winds 2,000 960 part iv storms 4,300 1,647 26 the personal papers of adolphus w. greely (1844-1935) are in the library of congress. his official papers are in the national archives. on greely's life see adolphus w. greely, reminiscences of adventure and service: a record of sixty-five years. (new york, 1927), especially chapter xviii; and william mitchell, general greely: the story of a great american (new york, 1936). 27 report of the chief signal officer for 1887, p. 39. 28 ibid.,1888, p. 28. 29 oliver lanard fassig (1860-1936) was the first american to receive a ph.d. in a meteorological field (johns hopkins, 1899). he was editor of the report of the international meteorological congress held at chicago, 3 vols. u.s. weather bureau, bulletin 11 (1893). 30 the existence of this supplementary catalog is confirmed by its temporary loan to the smithsonian institution in 1896. office of the secretary (samuel p. langley), box 25, folder 7 (fassig), smithsonian institution archives. harold hilton died in 1890. 31 report of the chief signal officer for 1889, p. 33. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 136 the volumes were produced in limited number and distributed “to co-operating observers, chiefs of important weather bureaus, and to the most important libraries of the united states.”32 only a few copies of the original are still in existence. most volumes are crumbling. one copy of the bibliography, interleaved with correction sheets, is in the noaa central library, silver spring, maryland. although the names a.w. greely and oliver l. fassig appear on the title pages of the bibliography, as this history shows, basic credit is due albert j. myer, the first signal officer, for initiating an international exchange of meteorological information; to william b. hazen for initiating the international cataloging project in 1881; to cleveland abbe whose collection formed the basis of the bibliography and who continually promoted the project33; to c.j. sawyer, the signal office librarian who worked for seven years on the project but resigned before the bibliography appeared; and to g.j. symons, gustav hellmann, and all the other contributors from around the world who supplied citations. here is the title page of the 1994 edition: 32 ibid., 1890, pp. 26-27, and 1891, pp. 29-31. 33 cleveland abbe, “the general bibliography of meteorology and terrestrial magnetism,” british association for the advancement of science, annual report (1887): 593-94 and symons's meteorological magazine (1887): 22, 121; cleveland abbe, “the signal service bibliography of meteorology,” american association for the advancement of science, proceedings (1887): 100; and abbe and sawyer, “signal service bibliography.” fleming, international bibliography of meteorology 137 the international bibliography of meteorology from the beginning of printing to 1889 four volumes in one: temperature,moisture,winds, storms edited by james rodger fleming, colby college & roy e. goodman, american philosophical society library with a foreword by e. philip krider historical introduction by james rodger fleming diane publishing company upland, pennsylvania 1994 corresponding author kae takarabe, chubu university, takarabe@isc.chubu.ac.jp the smithsonian meteorological project and hokkaido, japan kae takarabe introduction the history of meteorology in japan, especially after the meiji restoration, has tended to be described in terms of knowledge diffusion from central tokyo outwards to local areas, despite the fact that meteorological observations were carried out at places such as nagasaki and yokohama (fig. 1).1 the aim of this paper is to explore an alternative meteorological channel in japan, operating in hokkaido. the japanese government considered hokkaido a critical area for development and therefore set out to colonise and develop the region’s agriculture by making use of american science and scientific advisors. meteorology was crucial to this process. this paper contends that the development of meteorological capabilities in hokkaido counters the centre-periphery model (fig. 2) which has come to dominate the literature of history of science.2 1 kishocho, kisho hyakunenshi [100 years’ history of meteorology] (tokyo: kishocho, 1975); sapporo regional headquarters, kishocho, sapporo kisho hyakunenshi [100 years’ history of meteorology in sapporo] (sapporo: sapporo regional headquarters, kishocho, 1976). exceptional works are as follows: shigeru kobayashi, “the extension of japanese weather survey in relation to the china coast meteorological service”, abstracts from the general meeting of the association of japanese geographers 2017, the association of japanese geographers [in japanese]; togo tsukahara, “rangaku, global warming, science and empires: history and climate, based on dutch historical archive,” bulletin of historiographical institute of tokyo university 16 (2006): 79–108 [in japanese]. 2 george basalla, “the spread of western science,” science 156, no. 3775 (1967): 611–22; lewis pyenson, civilizing mission: exact sciences and french overseas expansion, 1830–1940 (baltimore, md: johns hopkins university press, 1993). mailto:takarabe@isc.chubu.ac.jp history of meteorology 9 (2020) 2 fig. 1. availability of instrumental meteorological data in japan pre-1900 (masumi zaiki, gunther p. können, keiji kimura, takehiko mikami, and togo tsukahara, 2009).3 the table shows how instrumental observations were carried out at a variety of places outside of tokyo. nb: blue and grey represents data that has been digitised; black represents official meteorological stations. the focus of this paper will be on the introduction of the smithsonian meteorological observation system to hokkaido, a topic that appears to have been neglected in previous studies.4 in so doing, it will offer a new perspective on early instrumental meteorological observation in japan through the lens of transnational networks of knowledge exchange.5 it takes the form of a detailed case study of the processes “through which knowledge and associated skills, practices, procedures, methods, and instruments are created in preference to ‘big picture’ accounts” and will contribute to recent studies of globally-linked enterprises:6 3 masumi zaiki, gunther p. können, keiji kimura, takehiko mikami, and togo tsukahara, “reconstruction of historical pressure patterns over japan using two-point pressure-temperature datasets since the nineteenth century,” climatic change 95 (2009), 233. 4 kishocho, kisho hyakunenshi; sapporo regional headquarters, sapporo kisho hyakunenshi. 5 the records used for this article are from the smithsonian institution archives and the national archives and records administration (nara). they comprise correspondence related to meteorology which was circulated by ship, railway, and telegraph, and they have never been examined from this perspective before. thus they offer unique insight into these questions. it is important to note, however, that relying so heavily on the american-based records is problematic, but currently materials in japan are very limited, or not yet available. togo tsukahara, masumi zaiki, and other scholars have excavated the local data. masumi zaiki, gunther p. können, keiji kimura, takehiko mikami, and togo tsukahara, “reconstruction,” 231–48, esp. 233–34; masumi zaiki and togo tsukahara, “meteorology on the southern frontier of japan’s empire,” east asian science, technology and society 1, no. 2 (2007): 183-203. 6 kapil raj, “beyond postcolonialism . . . and postpositivism: circulation and the global history of science,” isis 104, no. 2 (june 2013), 337–47, esp. 341. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 3 exploring the circulation of knowledge in the global history of science.7 to deepen understanding of the main topic, the article begins with an overview of the smithsonian’s international exchange service and the smithsonian meteorological project. fig. 2. site locations of late nineteenth-century meteorological observations in japan, including early observatories in hokkaido (kae takarabe, 2020). this is based on the map in masumi zaiki, gunther p. können, keiji kimura, takehiko mikami, and togo tsukahara, 2009 and corresponds with fig. 1.8 the kaitakushi’s initiatives in hokkaido are added; figures in parentheses represent the first year of observation. the smithsonian’s scientific initiatives the nineteenth-century drive to standardize and coordinate worldwide weather observations attempted to create a synoptic meteorology. the science expanded by exchanging instruments and enlisting observers, amassing data and comparing averages, charting airflows and sketching isolines, undertaking forecasts, and challenging hypotheses. large-scale meteorology spread across boundaries: observations were carried by ship, railway, and telegraph.9 in this same period, in 1846, the world-famous smithsonian institution was founded 7 for example, johan östling, erling sandmo, david larsson heidenblad, anna nilsson hammar, and kari h. nordberg, eds., circulation of knowledge: explorations in the history of knowledge (lund: nordic academic press, 2018); raj, “beyond postcolonialism…and postpositivism”; kapil raj, relocating modern science: circulation and the construction of knowledge in south asia and europe, 1650–1900 (houndmills and new york: palgrave macmillan, 2007); david n. livingstone, putting science in its place: geographies of scientific knowledge (chicago: university of chicago press, 2003); martin mahony and angelo matteo caglioti, “relocating meteorology,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 1–14; fiona williamson, “asian extremes: experience, exchange and meteorological knowledge in hong kong and singapore c.1840– 1939,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 159–78. raj claims that science is not only taken to refer to the production of knowledge, but also to that of instruments, techniques, and services used in the production of knowledge. 8 masumi zaiki, gunther p. können, keiji kimura, takehiko mikami, and togo tsukahara, “reconstruction,” 232. 9 james rodger fleming, vladimir jankovic, and deborah r. coen, eds., intimate universality: local and global themes in the history of weather and climate (sagamore beach: science history publications, 2006), x. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 4 in washington, dc, by the bequest of englishman james smithson, “for the increase and diffusion of knowledge among men”.10 the first smithsonian secretary was joseph henry and he and his contemporaries developed several international programs designed to disseminate their forms of knowledge and meteorological infrastructures including, for example, standardising directions and instrument types.11 henry in particular emphasised the pursuit of pure science and a desire to publish its achievements.12 both of the first two smithsonian secretaries, henry and naturalist spencer f. baird, were keen to establish a network of foreign agents to receive and forward publications—and ultimately to provide other services, with the aim of integrating american science into the worldwide scientific system of knowledge exchange.13 it was in the pursuit of this ideal that henry initiated the smithsonian’s international exchange service in the late nineteenth century.14 indeed, henry thought that “nothing is more desirable than the diminution of isolatedness of nations in science”, and even wrote that “[t]he institution may employ a translator”.15 henry believed it important for each country to be informed of international discoveries, so that the isolated knowledge of individuals and nations might be compounded into one system for the good of the whole.16 these ideas connected with the general trend and pursuit of science in the last half of the nineteenth century, which, in the words of robert bruce, had “become a collective enterprise”, where the spread of scientific investigation hinged on the “systematizing of communication” among the growing number of practicing scientists and where individual scientists increasingly obtained scientific information through direct correspondence with fellow practitioners around the world.17 as the body of scientific literature grew substantially in the nineteenth century, the smithsonian institution became a world-leading agency for the international exchange of scientific publications by 1876.18 henry and baird believed the institution’s exchange service was itself an example of a new national role, a “fountainhead of science in america” necessary for communicating science at home and abroad. 19 the smithsonian’s exchange network became an important vehicle for ensuring that the products of american and of foreign science had an outlet. 10 29th congress, session 1, 1846, “an act to establish the ‘smithsonian institution,’ for the increase and diffusion of knowledge among men,” 09 stat 102 (1846) (boston: little, brown and co., 1862). 11 james rodger fleming, meteorology in america, 1800–1870 (baltimore: johns hopkins university press, 1990), 75–93; paul n. edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism,” osiris 21 (2006): 229–50. 12 albert e. moyer, joseph henry: the rise of an american scientist (washington and london: smithsonian institution press, 1997), 249–50. 13 nancy e. gwinn, “the origins and development of international publication exchange in nineteenth-century america” (phd diss., george washington university, 1996), 207, 282, 284, 285. 14 a. hunter dupree, science in the federal government (baltimore: johns hopkins university press, 1986); robert v. bruce, the launching of modern american science, 1846–1876 (new york: knopf, 1987). 15 joseph henry’s desk diary, 20 may 1849, in the papers of joseph henry, vol. 7 (washington: smithsonian institution press, 1996), 538–39. 16 the papers of joseph henry, vol. 8 (washington: smithsonian institution press, 1998), 417–18. 17 bruce, launching, 4. 18 at the philadelphia centennial exhibition, the smithsonian displayed bookcases containing all three classes of the institution’s publications, and a series of tables showing the extent and importance of the international exchange system. gwinn, “origins and development,” 279. 19 ibid., 267, 281, 282, 311. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 5 in addition to the formal international publication exchange program, the smithsonian institution’s existence enabled and encouraged a large body of less formal mechanisms for exchanging scientific knowledge, including correspondence between key figures. due to the prominence of the first secretaries, joseph henry and spencer baird, they developed large correspondence networks which became a mainstay of related scientific work. these letters and exchanges reveal the important role of the smithsonian institution in developing meteorological practices globally. this paper is mainly based on these correspondences. henry’s particular focus was on meteorology. when he became smithsonian secretary, he brought with him a longstanding interest in weather science, calling for a “system of meteorological observations for solving the problem of american storms” in the new “programme of organization of the smithsonian institution”.20 to emphasize the importance of establishing a meteorological program at the smithsonian, henry included professor elias loomis’ “report on the meteorology of the united states” in the institution’s first annual report. loomis argued that meteorology could “contribute more directly and powerfully to the prosperity of our commerce; and, through commerce, add to the wealth and happiness of the whole country”.21 henry’s desk diary of 27 january 1852 clearly shows how he planned to use such arguments to persuade organizations such as the us army, the us naval observatory, and the british government to cooperate in broadening the scientific network through meteorology.22 his main tool in so doing was the smithsonian meteorological project. between 1848 and 1874, the project served as the national centre for meteorological research, providing standardised instruments, uniform procedures, and free publications to all involved. 23 the first directions for meteorological observations, intended for the first class of observers (1850) and the directions for meteorological observations and the registry of periodical phenomena (1855), for instance, were reprinted and distributed widely.24 the project was also characterized by an extensive system of volunteer observers who kept weather journals according to a common plan, submitting their reports monthly by mail. james f. fleming pointed out that at its greatest extent, the system had over 600 correspondents located across the country and in canada, mexico, latin america, and the caribbean.25 the 20 john d. cox, storm watchers: the turbulent history of weather prediction from franklin’s kite to el niño (hoboken, new jersey: john wiley & sons, 2002); frank millikan, “joseph henry’s grand meteorological crusade,” weatherwise 50 (october/november 1997): 14–18; smithsonian institution, programme of organization of the smithsonian institution, presented in the first annual report of the secretary and adopted by the board of regents, december 13, 1847 (washington, 1847). pdf: https://www.loc.gov/item/rbpe.23204300/. 21 annual report of the board of regents of the smithsonian institution for the year 1847 (washington: smithsonian institution press, 1848), 28–46. 22 the papers of joseph henry, vol. 8 (washington: smithsonian institution press, 1998), 281–2; fleming, meteorology in america, 95. 23 fleming, meteorology in america, 75. 24 the latter was later re-classified as smithsonian institution publication 148 (smithsonian miscellaneous collection) in 1860 and reprinted in 1872. the contents are as follows: placing and management of the instruments (thermometer, self-registering thermometers, psychrometer, barometer, ombrometer, snow-gage, wind-vane), sky, hydro-meteorological phenomena (dew, fog, clouds, rain, thunderstorms, tornadoes, and land spouts), additional observations during storms, accidental meteoric phenomena, directions for meteorological observations and the registry of periodical phenomena, time of observations, the register, special directions to the meteorological observers of the smithsonian institution, circular relative to earthquakes, instructions for observations of the aurora, green’s standard barometer, instructions for observations of thunderstorms, and register of periodical phenomena. 25 fleming, meteorology in america, 75; james rodger fleming, historical perspectives on climate change (oxford: oxford university press, 1998), 41; joseph giacomelli, “unsettling gilded-age science: vernacular climatology and meteorology in the ‘middle border’,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 15–16, 31; philip kopper, volunteer! o volunteer!: a salute to the smithsonian’s unpaid legions (washington, dc: smithsonian institution press, 1983); daniel goldstein, “yours for science: history of meteorology 9 (2020) 6 network even spread across the pacific ocean to incorporate some regions of japan. henry used the magnetic telegraph to notify these distant observers of approaching storms. this exemplifies henry’s three-pronged approach to the circulation of knowledge: first, circulating scientific publications, then collecting meteorological data by telegraph, and finally sending warnings via telegraph. the international focus of the smithsonian meteorological project also enabled henry to introduce systematic meteorological observations to parts of japan and to collate this data. an important cog in this wheel was the opening of the united states naval hospital in yokohama in 1872, following the meiji restoration of 1868. the hospital engaged in meteorological observation and sent data to the smithsonian from august 1872 through december 1873.26 this all ended with the transfer of the smithsonian system to the new american signal office in 1874. this was due to the re-building of the smithsonian system after the civil war of 1865, and the establishment of a new meteorological department under the us war department’s signal office.27 the end of the smithsonian network in yokohama did not, however, mean the end of american meteorological involvement in japan: another channel of the smithsonian network had already emerged.28 while expanding us influence in meteorology was a critical aim of henry and his contemporaries, the broader context in which the smithsonian meteorological project influenced japan is also important. indeed, henry had been very interested in japanese modernisation and had showed off american science to the man’en gannen mission at the smithsonian institution building in 1860 and welcomed the iwakura embassy of 1872.29 considering japan’s physical and political isolation, henry worried about the “isolatedness of nations in science”.30 crossing global and personal: key players in growing us-japanese relations emerging from its post-settlement period, the early nineteenth-century us began to look toward global geopolitics. an important part of this trajectory was establishing regularised transpacific traffic to japan and china. thus in 1853, the us navy arrived in japan under command of commodore mathew perry. with the convention of peace and amity between the united states of america and the empire of japan, perry could open the ports of shimoda on the south shore of honshu island and hakodate on the north shore to us vessels. the “far the smithsonian institution’s correspondents and the shape of scientific community in nineteenth-century america,” isis 85, no. 4 (dec. 1994): 573–99. 26 kae takarabe, “meteorological observation at the u.s. naval hospital in yokohama from 1872 to 1873,” the history of science of tokai 12 (2017): 126-30 [in japanese]; “classified record of monthly meteorological reports preserved in the smithsonian institution,” annual report of the smithsonian institution for the year 1873 (washington: smithsonian institution, 1874), 84–131. 27 fleming, meteorology in america, 146–150. 28 joseph henry, “report of the secretary,” annual report of the smithsonian institution for the year 1871 (washington: smithsonian institution, 1872), 37. 29 kae takarabe, “samurai at the smithsonian: first japanese visitors to western museum in the u.s.,” cultures and institutions of natural history: essays in the history and philosophy of science, michael t. ghiselin and alan e. leviton, eds. (california academy of science, 2000), 161–82; kae takarabe, “observation of the smithsonian institution by members of the iwakura mission (1872),” journal of the museological society of japan 28, no. 1 (2002): 25–44 [in japanese]; kae takarabe, “arinori mori and the smithsonian institution in the early meiji era,” journal of the museological society of japan 28, no. 2 (2003): 33–52 [in japanese]; kae takarabe, “david murray and the smithsonian institution,” journal of the museological society of japan 30, no. 1 (2005): 21–46 [in japanese]. 30 joseph henry’s desk diary, 20 may 1849. the papers of joseph henry, vol. 7 (washington: smithsonian institution press, 1996), 538-39. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 7 eastern strategy” did not end with perry’s expedition. the american scientific lobby, which found alexander dallas bache, joseph henry, and matthew fontaine maury working together, demanded that a scientific expedition be sent to map and collect specimens from japan and other little-known parts of the far east.31 meteorology would be a critical component of this expedition. as a result of the erosion of its national isolation policy, japan experienced a phase of unprecedented westernisation and industrialisation. until the mid-1880s, many europeans and americans in japan worked as oyatoi (foreign employees), such as merchants, bankers, engineers, doctors, and educators, though most were soon replaced by the first generation of well-trained japanese experts.32 in the case of japanese meteorology in the pre-1860 period, almost half the stations were operated by japanese and half by europeans; thereafter, oyatoi played a more active part.33 the new meiji government hired european employees to carry out meteorological observations in tokyo using european methodology—purchasing instruments, carrying out observations, providing guidelines, and proposing a warning system by the signal office. in this way, the tokyo meteorological observatory (tmo), the predecessor of the japan meteorological agency (jma), was established in 1875 (fig. 3).34 turning our eyes back to hokkaido, with the visit of commodore perry as its momentum, hakodate came under the direct control of the tokugawa shogunate. an officer took meteorological observations of wind, weather, temperature, earthquakes, and lightning twice a day, in the morning and evening, between 1854 and 1858. after hakodate opened to foreign ships in 1859, a doctor at the russian consulate, michael albrecht, and later an english merchant, thomas blakiston, made meteorological observations until 1871. subsequently, in 1872, the hakodate branch office of kaitakushi (see below) started meteorological observation, even before the establishment of the central observatory in tokyo in 1875.35 as we will see later, the american scientists of the kaitakushi encouraged and supported the initiative of the kaitakushi staff at hakodate. 31 william h. goetzmann, “exploration and early american culture,” proceedings of the american antiquarian society 10 (1989): 235–36. 32 eikoh shimao, “some aspects of japanese science, 1868–1945,” annals of science 46, no. 1 (1989): 69–91; noboru umetani, oyatoi gaikokujin: meiji nihon no wakiyakutachi [foreign employees in meiji, japan] (tokyo: kodansha, 2007). 33 zaiki, können, kimura, mikami, and tsukahara, “reconstruction,” 231–48, esp. 234. 34 kishocho, kisho hyakunenshi, 47–51; report of the meteorological observations for the ten years 1876–1885 (tokyo: imperial meteorological observatory of tokio, 1886). for the history of japan meteorological agency (jma), see http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/background/history.html. recently, several scholars have begun to reexamine the history of meteorology in japan around the beginning of the meiji restoration: akira yamamoto, “establishment of a national meteorological service in japan,” jahigeo bulletin, no. 48 (2017): 41–48 [in japanese]; hideo izumida, “reconsideration of commencement of engineering education under the ministry of public works in the meiji japan: contribution of yozo yamao and c. a. mcvean to conceptualization and realization,” journal of architecture and planning 81, no. 720 (2016): 477–87 [in japanese]. 35 togo tsukahara has pointed out that the colonisation of hokkaido was the driving force behind this early institutionalisation: tsukahara, “rangaku, global warming, science and empires,” 79–108, esp. 100–102. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 8 fig. 3. tokyo meteorological observatory within the grounds of chiri-ryo, tokyo. source: japan meteorological agency website (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/intro/gyomu/index2.html). there are japanese vernacular-style buildings with wind vanes on the rooftop, as well as stevenson screens. among numerous modernisation programs for industrial and economic expansion as well as for defense (especially against russia, which was keenly interested in colonising hokkaido), the meiji government set up a department called the kaitakushi (the hokkaido development commission or the hokkaido colonization office) in 1869. this department was in charge of development and settlement in hokkaido under the kaitakushi ten-year program. it was assumed that american knowledge and practical skills gained through developing the vast area of the american ‘lower 48’ and the territorial expansion into alaska after 1867 would be adaptable to the cold hokkaido wilderness. as such, the kaitakushi employed lots of american scientists and engineers.36 kiyotaka kuroda (1840–1900) was charged with overseeing the colonisation effort in hokkaido under the kaitakushi. kuroda went to the us to hire americans and buy specialised equipment to aid in land development. whilst there, he met with the chargé d’affaires of the new japanese legation, arinori mori (1847–1889). mori had been born in kagoshima, the son of a kagoshima clan samurai. he had learned western science and technology, and in 1865 his clan sent him to university college london in great britain, where he studied western techniques in mathematics, physics, and naval surveying. he returned to japan just after the 36 fumiko fujita, american pioneers and the japanese frontier: american experts in nineteenth-century japan (westport: greenwood press, 1994); tomomi nakagawa, “frontier of professionals: the vision of american advisors that supported hokkaido development in the early meiji period,” historia scientiarum 27‒3 (2018): 1–19; michele m. mason, dominant narratives of colonial hokkaido and imperial japan: envisioning the periphery and the modern nation-state (new york: palgrave macmillan, 2012). http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/intro/gyomu/index2.html history of meteorology 9 (2020) 9 start of the meiji restoration. he became the first japanese resident diplomat in the us capital, serving from january 1871 to march 1873 in washington, dc. in the us, mori and kuroda visited general horace capron (1804–1885), who would later travel to japan as an advisor to the kaitakushi. when capron began planning his visit, he recruited experts on geology and mining to accompany him. joseph henry, who had been in touch with capron for many years, had an important role in this recruitment, as he was tasked to recommend suitable scientists and engineers for the kaitakushi. mori also acted as a mediator between henry and the kaitakushi and played an important role in introducing smithsonian meteorological observation procedures to hokkaido, though he himself was not a kaitakushi member. it was during his stay in washington that mori came to know joseph henry. henry and mori met first at a us-japan meeting aimed at building a scientific relationship, but the details of this event remain obscure.37 the first note on mori in henry’s desk diary suggests he had met with him on 14 july 1871 to discuss japanese conditions, including population, food, and exports.38 thus, the key players, such as henry, capron, and mori, who met in washington, dc, would later cooperate in purchasing the meteorological instruments and recruiting american suitable scientists and engineers for colonisation in hokkaido. creating infrastructure: instruments and personnel for a successful colonisation, the kaitakushi needed instruments, including for meteorological observation and geological surveys. the smithsonian’s directions for meteorological observations offered the information on details of standardised meteorological instruments. among them was james green’s standard barometer, which became known as the smithsonian barometer. green began making fortin-type barometers for the smithsonian in the 1850s, though with a slightly different design for the cistern.39as we will see, it was henry who actually placed the first order for japan. only a few days after henry’s visit with mori, a letter passed between them on 18 july 1871 in which henry described “green of new york, the mathematical instrument maker” as having “in my opinion, no superior in this country in the line of instrument making”.40 the letter enclosed the bill of the instruments which capron had ordered on the kaitakushi’s behalf. they were selected by one of henry’s recruits, dr.thomas antisell (1817–1893). on the movement of instruments from the us to japan, henry had written that “[t]he institution has taken much interest in the historical phenomenon of the movement in japan in regard to the adoption of western civilization” and made arrangements “for obtaining meteorological observations and specimens of archaeology and natural history”.41 a subsequent report by henry to the committee on the library of 37 toshiaki okubo, shinshu mori arinori zenshu [new complete works of mori arinori] (tokyo: bunsendoshoten, 1998); ivan parker hall, mori arinori (cambridge: harvard university press, 1973). 38 “called on the japan ambassador, found him as i had before a very intelligent man—quite anxious to improve the condition of his country” and “the land well cultivated—population redundant—food imported—articles of exportation—tea and silks—,” desk diary, 14 july 1871, joseph henry collection, ru7001, smithsonian institution archives. 39 fleming, meteorology in america, 119; https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/search/object/nmah_1187988 [this needs to be at least name-described]. 40 joseph henry to arinori mori, 18 july 1871, ru33, smithsonian institution archives. 41 joseph henry, “report of the secretary,” annual report of the smithsonian institution for the year 1871, (washington: smithsonian institution, 1872), 36–37. https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/search/object/nmah_1187988 history of meteorology 9 (2020) 10 congress in early 1872 suggests how mori had played a key role in obtaining instruments for “meteorological, magnetic, and other physical observations”.42 before mori left the us that march, henry wrote to him again, asking him to help by collecting records of weather observations and natural history specimens for the us when he was back in japan. in the absence of instrumental observations, henry argued that visual observation would suffice and that instrumental work could be introduced later.43 he laid out clear instructions for mori on the subject (fig. 4): with regard to meteorology, any records which may have been made with regard to the weather are desirable, such as the time of opening and closing of rivers during a long period of unusually cold or unusually warm winters or summers. it is also important that meteorological observations for the future should be established such as accurate observations of the depth of rain, as measured by the rain gauge; the occurrence of thunder-storms, the direction from which the thunder cloud comes; the character of the lightning, such as the violence of the discharge, notice of any damage which may be done, trees or buildings struck; regular observations with barometer and thermometer; direction of the wind; appearance of the aurora-borealis, etc. for recording these observations, we send you a set of blank forms and also a rain-gauge such as is used by our observers.44 after mori returned to japan, he took on many government positions, including minister of education to the meiji government. however, with a lack of any written evidence connecting henry and mori after the latter’s return to japan, their relationship becomes obscure after this point. as mentioned previously, horace capron had an important role in recruiting american scientists and engineers for the kaitakushi. born in attleboro, massachusetts, capron was active in agricultural societies during the antebellum period and had gained a reputation for applying scientific principles to farming. he was appointed as us commissioner of agriculture in 1867, where he stayed until 1871.45 in the spring of 1871, the kaitakushi’s main office was opened in sapporo and in august capron went to japan to take up the role of advisor to the kaitakushi. henry, who knew capron well, worried: “i fear our friend, general capron, will find himself in a difficult position” in japan. 46 it was partly out of concern that henry supported capron’s recruitment and instrument drive. 42 charles lanman, the japanese in america (london: longmans, green, reader, and dyer, 1872), 51. henry wrote “i have had frequent intercourse with mr. a. mori”. 43 circular on meteorology, november 1, 1848. the papers of joseph henry, vol. 7 (washington: smithsonian institution press, 1996), 419. 44 joseph henry to arinori mori, 12 march 1873, ru33, smithsonian institution archives. he also wrote that he was willing to “foster a friendly cooperation between this establishment [the smithsonian] and the lovers of science” in japan. 45 allen johnson and dumas malone, eds. dictionary of american biography, vol. 2 (new york: charles scribner’s sons, 1944). 46 for instance, they had visited savannah together on 21 november 1869. joseph henry to william schley, 14 january 1870. the papers of joseph henry, vol. 11 (washington: smithsonian institution, 2007), 277–279. on 13 march 1871, when the washington philosophical society meeting was held at the smithsonian, henry was selected as president and horace capron was selected as one of the vice presidents. desk diary, march 6, 1871, the papers of joseph henry, vol. 11 (washington: smithsonian institution, 2007), 345–46. joseph henry to charles lanman, sept. 11, 1872, the papers of joseph henry, vol. 11 (washington: smithsonian institution, 2007), 417–420. [i find the references here unclear] history of meteorology 9 (2020) 11 fig. 4. joseph henry’s letter to mori arinori, 12 march 1873, smithsonian institution archives. like kuroda, capron remained in tokyo. he sent geological engineer thomas antisell and another colleague to hokkaido in the winter of 1871–1872 to survey and report on the island’s climate and prospects.47 in his letter to henry on 5 august 1872, antisell reported that he had kept meteorological observations and obtained “some obs’n in yezo kept for some years by others with an abstract of some kept here for eight years at yokohama”, and that he would put the important figures together and let henry know something of the climate there.48 subsequently, on 10 september 1872, antisell sent henry “some tables of meteorology observations made here during the last 12 months—and have in past collated them with some made by dr. hepburn of yokohama”.49 antisell had used the green’s barometer and a small aneroid that was “very sensitive for small movements”, but he did not know what corrections 47 thomas antisell was born in dublin, ireland in 1817, where he was educated as a physician and a chemist. he emigrated to new york city in november 1848 and opened a medical office and a chemistry laboratory. in 1854, he entered government service as a geologist on the pacific railroad survey in california and arizona. after the survey, antisell moved to washington, dc, where he was a chief examiner in the us patent office and had sole charge of chemical inventions. after the civil war, antisell became a chief chemist of the department of agriculture from 1866 until 1871. he also taught chemistry at georgetown university from 1858 to 1869 and at the maryland agricultural college from 1869 to 1870. national cyclopaedia of american biography, current volume a (new york: james t. white & co., 1930); horace capron, memoirs of horace capron, vol. i: autobiography, special collections, national agricultural library. 48 thomas antisell to joseph henry, 5 august 1872, ru26, smithsonian institution archives. 49 thomas antisell to joseph henry, 10 september 1872, ru26, smithsonian institution archives. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 12 to apply. 50 he complained that “there surely must be some methods but i have no books here which say anything about it”.51 he also asked henry about “the proper form to record” the earthquakes and “how to observe” them, and also about “any new seismometer of value”.52 the tables of meteorological observations, which antisell believed were “the first published efforts to arrive at a knowledge of this climate”, were published as on meteorology in japan (1872), which antisell submitted to the head of the kaitakushi, kiyotaka kuroda. in creating this publication, antisell made use of both his own records and yokohama-based doctor james curtis hepburn’s tabulated records from 1860–1863. the book also included maps showing the japanese kuroshio current (also known as the black current or, in earlier literature, the kuro siwo), and a map of a typhoon on 25 august 1872. he concluded that “calling the attention of government to the necessity of establishing stations for meteorological observation along the line of telegraph from nagasaki northward” was needed so that “by proper signals” of the storms in port, great damages could be avoided.53 antisell sent this report to henry, and thus, his japanese observations were included in the smithsonian’s meteorological observation project.54 after this, antisell decided to remain in tokyo for the summer and autumn to organise the new college, kaitakushi karigakko (the hokkaido promotion development provisional school), saying “i have induced them to open industrial schools in the polytechnic plans of europe and we prepare to have at least three such opened in september—mechanical and civil engineering—mining—and agriculture”.55 when it opened in 1872, antisell became vice president and taught chemistry and geology. on the other hand, capron submitted a preliminary report to kuroda with reference to the opening and settlement of the island of yesso, saying that “meteorological observations in yesso have been so limited that all estimates of its agricultural capabilities have been mere conjectures, based upon private reports and comparison with climates of other countries”.56 to demonstrate that hokkaido was suitable for colonization, capron used both antisell’s reports and the smithsonian institution’s meteorological reports, and he compared the climates of hokkaido and the united states. he stated that “[t]he rainfall in the united states for twelve months is 38.05 inches, and in hakodate is 36.92 inches. these statements are collected from the reports of the members of the commission and from the meteorological reports of the smithsonian institution.”57 he concluded that they “in no case show any marked difference in 50 ibid. 51 ibid. 52 ibid. 53 ibid.; thomas antisell, on meteorology in japan (1872), northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, https://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c001170000000000; collection of japanese and chinese classics, waseda university library, http://www.wul.waseda .ac.jp/kotenseki/html/i14/i14_a4564/index.html. 54 “japan. meteorology of japan. dr. thomas antisell. 1872” appeared in “classified list of meteorological publications, and meteorological articles in periodicals, received by the smithsonian institution in 1873, and deposited in the library of congress,” annual report of the smithsonian institution for the year 1873 (washington: smithsonian institution, 1874), 135. however, his name did not appear in “classified record of monthly meteorological reports preserved in the smithsonian institution” in the same report. twenty years later, he again discussed currents in the broader pacific ocean context, referring to his knowledge of the kuroshio current. thomas antisell, “the currents of the pacific ocean,” journal of the american geographical society of new york 15 (1883): 101–32. 55 thomas antisell to joseph henry, 5 august 1872, ru26, smithsonian institution archives. 56 horace capron, reports and official letters to the kaitakushi (tokyo: kaitakushi, 1875), 39. 57 ibid., 41. https://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c001170000000000 http://www.wul.waseda/ history of meteorology 9 (2020) 13 either temperature or rainfall between yesso and the richest and most populous states of the union. the great fall of snow in yesso (which is included in the rainfall), is a great advantage, serving, as it does, to protect grains and grasses from the frost and to prevent the freezing of the ground to any depth”.58 in addition, capron consulted with the kaitakushi officers and supported their meteorological initiatives. in 1872, for example, capron encouraged naritoyo fukushi, a survey officer from the hakodate branch of the kaitakushi, by way of thomas blakiston, to propose the establishment of a new meteorological station. capron lent blakiston’s meteorological instruments to fukushi and set them up at the hakodate branch office. the kaitakushi ordered new meteorological instruments for this endeavor, this time from england, enabling the hakodate branch to set up a meteorological observatory and begin meteorological observations as the first government-run observatory on 26 august 1872. fukushi and a few staff members were in charge of observation.59 from humble beginnings to wider applications benjamin smith lyman (1835–1920) joined the kaitakushi as a replacement for antisell when the latter quit the department due to a disagreement with capron.60 lyman, a harvard graduate of 1855, had been given his first job on a topographical and geological survey in pennsylvania by his uncle, j. peter lesley, a noted geologist. then, lyman studied at the imperial school of mines in paris from 1859 to 1860, and followed practical course at the royal academy of mines in freiberg, saxony, from 1861 to 1862. upon returning to the united states, lyman established himself in philadelphia, opening an office as a consulting mining engineer.61 henry had asked lesley to name a geologist to be sent to japan. lesley immediately recommended his nephew, writing that “i know but one person who will meet your numerous requirements”.62 lyman arrived in japan in january 1873 and was tasked with surveying hokkaido’s coal and oil fields, as well as those along the sea of japan’s coastline. he also taught geology at the kaitakushi karigakko, and carried out geological surveys and measurements with students in hokkaido until 1875. he continued to work under other ministries until the end of 1880. in 1873, lyman wrote the climate of japan, submitting it to the kaitakushi, as capron and antisell had done.63 he compared japan’s climate with those of europe and the us, and cited the famous old inscription of the indian emperor, “if there be a paradise on earth, it is here, it is here!”.64 lyman emphasised that colonisation should be carried out in a way that suited the climate. 58 ibid. 59 kishocho, kisho hyakunenshi, 337–38. 60 the discord between capron and antisell came to the fore in february 1872 when antisell asked for a raise in salary. later, antisell wrote to henry that “mr c did not exert himself his favor, altho’ i had it urged upon him to do so.” thomas antisell to joseph henry, 5 august 1872, ru26, smithsonian institution archives. 61 the benjamin smith lyman collection [brochure] (university of massachusetts amherst library). 62 joseph henry to peter lesley, 8 may 1871, j. peter lesley collection, american philosophical society library; peter lesley to joseph henry, 9 may 1871, horace capron papers, library of congress; benjamin lyman to joseph henry, 9 june 1871, horace capron papers, library of congress. 63 benjamin smith lyman, the climate of japan (1873), northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c026100000000000&lang=0. 64 ibid. http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c026100000000000&lang=0 history of meteorology 9 (2020) 14 in a report to capron in november 1874, compiled at chiraiwatara (near shibetsu), lyman noted the importance of the “meteorology of science” for forewarning the frequent, severe storms that claimed hundreds of lives each year in that region.65 he noted that “[i]n the first place a system of telegraphic weather reports throughout japan, connected also with the one lately begun or soon to begin in china, would enable the weather on the coast of yesso to be predicted commonly a day or two in advance, and storm signals could be set up at different points along the coast in the same manner as has been done for some years in great britain and in america”.66 aligning the kaitakushi plan to similar work in foreign countries would “doubtless help forward very much the science of meteorology, and perhaps lead to the possibility of predicting stormy weather still longer in advance”.67 his proposal for an asian storm warning and weather reporting system along english and american lines advocated knowledge exchanges among the broader regional asian network, beyond japan. this contemporary asian network commonly predicted the weather a day or two in advance. meanwhile, in march 1874, the head of the kaitakushi asked lyman, through henry, to order seven sets of meteorological instruments for the six or seven new meteorological stations proposed for hokkaido. these instruments included quicksilver barometers, aneroid barometers, rain gauges, anemometers, thermometers, heat thermometers (self-registering), cold thermometers (self-registering), wet bulb thermometers, and two small or pocket (compensated) aneroids, chiefly for measuring height.68 lyman made a significant contribution in enabling the kaitakushi to acquire the instruments, including making the order and securing the payment, confirming the condition of the instruments on arrival, and arranging for subsequent repairs. henry also continued to be a reliable advisor throughout this process, for instance, explaining to lyman how to establish a workable registering system and providing instructions as to “how to construct a barometer” (fig. 5).69 lyman readily took up henry’s suggestions, proposing to the kaitakushi that “[t]he method he [henry] gives of filling barometer tubes may sometime be useful to the[ir] meteorologists”.70 65 capron, reports and official letters, 439. 66 ibid. 67 ibid. 68 benjamin lyman to joseph henry, 25 march 1874, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c026330000000000. 69 joseph henry to benjamin lyman, 22 june 1875, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c027370000000000&lang=0, https://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/kyuki.cgi?id=0c027380000000000&page=1&lang=0. 70 benjamin lyman to kiyotaka kuroda, 16 october 1875, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c027360000000000&lang=0. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 15 history of meteorology 9 (2020) 16 fig. 5. “how to construct a barometer” in joseph henry’s letter to benjamin lyman, 22 june 1875. source: northern studies collection, hokkaido university library history of meteorology 9 (2020) 17 in november 1875, the kaitakushi also asked lyman to secure seven copies of the smithsonian miscellaneous collections pamphlet 148 (the directions for meteorological observations) from henry.71 on 14 february 1876, garrick mallery, the chief signal officer, replied to lyman, writing that g. j. rockwell of imperial college tokio had already made a similar request.72 his office answered that “a copy of ‘form e’ of the ‘instructions to observer sergeants’ of the ‘bulletin of international meteorological observations’ and of the annual report of this office for 1874” were now mailed to lyman’s address as printed matter, though the same ones had been mailed to prof. rockwell last october.73 mallery emphasised “the greater importance to cooperation on the part of official observers in the empire of japan in its labors, especially in that of the simultaneous observations now extended over the greater part of the civilized world”.74 george jewett rockwell, mentioned above, had been hired by kaitakushi karigakko from january to july 1875, and had tried to obtain forms for meteorological observations through henry on the last day of his employment. 75 by then, the smithsonian institution no longer carried out the meteorological observation project, so henry transferred the letter to the appropriate office, the war department’s army signal service. on 27 october, chief signal officer general albert meyer sent the forms to rockwell, referring to the bulletin of international meteorological observations. eventually, lyman received seven copies of “instructions to observer sergeants” and fifty blank forms.76 subsequently, mallery encouraged lyman to make meteorological observations in japan based on this form and send them to his office.77 when the kaitakushi karigakko moved to sapporo in 1875, the pamphlets and instruments were transferred to sapporo. in the following year, it was renamed sapporo agricultural college (sapporo nogakko). the college was opened on formally on 14 august 1876. under the guidance of william s. clark (1826–1886), the former president of the massachusetts state agricultural college, the sapporo-based institute became a specialised centre for the theory and practice of large-scale agricultural management. courses at the college called for three years of 71 benjamin lyman to joseph henry, 4 november 1875, benjamin smith lyman papers, american philosophical society library. as mentioned previously, this publication was the directions for meteorological observations, intended to be distributed to observers. 72 garrick mallery to benjamin lyman, 14 february 1876, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c027710000000000&lang=0. 73 ibid. 74 ibid. 75 george jewett rockwell was born in either 1850 or 1851. he graduated from new york university in 1872. he then studied analytical chemistry as a special student at columbia university’s school of mines from 1872 to 1873. in 1874, rockwell joined the us transit of venus expedition and went to siberia. then he came to japan to work under horace capron of the kaitakushi, and taught as acting principal at the school attached to the kaitakushi. he resigned after half a year, and in september 1875 became a teacher of chemistry and physics at tokyo kaisei gakko. again, he resigned after ten months and returned home. 76 garrick mallery to benjamin lyman, 9 may 1876, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c027830000000000. they were the “fifty copies of form e for use in making reports, and seven copies of ‘instructions to observer sergeants’” that col. mallery said he sent in july. benjamin lyman to tokusaburo yamauchi, 7 july 1876, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c027820000000000&lang=0. 77 garrick mallery to benjamin lyman, 2 september 1876, benjamin smith lyman papers, american philosophical society library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c030210000000000. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 18 preparatory work and four years of specialisation based on a broad foundation in the natural sciences, including training in chemistry, mathematics, and physics.78 meteorology at sapporo william wheeler (1851−1932), graduate of the massachusetts state agricultural college at amherst and a civil engineer, had come to japan with clark to serve as a professor of mathematics and civil engineering, and succeeded clark as the college’s acting president and, later, as president. wheeler took on a variety of projects as need, opportunity, and circumstance arose. one of them was meteorological observation.79 wheeler set up a small meteorological observatory as part of the college and started to carry out observations as early as 1 september 1876 (fig. 6). “in order to facilitate the work of the observer, and to secure the highest degree of accuracy in the results”, the station was erected in an isolated position, on the roof of the kiu honjin, wheeler’s off-campus residence and formerly the kaitakushi’s inn. it was fitted out with a set of standard instruments made by casella in london which wheeler had come across almost accidently. they had been obtained originally by lyman and kept for the college to use.80 wheeler also obtained fifty “pamphlet & form[s]” for making observations as the result of the cooperation of lyman, henry, and the office of the chief signal officer.81 fig. 6. william wheeler’s “register of meteorological observations”. source: northern studies collection, hokkaido university library. 78 john m. maki, a yankee in hokkaido: the life of william smith clark (lanham: lexington books, 2002). 79 tetsuro takasaki, william wheeler: a young american professor in meiji japan (sapporo: hokkaido university press, 2009). 80 william wheeler, “register of meteorological observations,” in first annual report of sapporo agricultural college (tokyo: kaitakushi, 1877), 83–88, esp. 87; william wheeler to mary wheeler, 10 september 1876, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library. wheeler appropriated instruments that had been previously obtained by lyman and kept for college use. 81tokusaburo yamauchi to benjamin lyman, 20 september 1876, benjamin smith lyman papers, american philosophical society library. “meteorological instruments at satsporo now in charge of prof. w. s. clark, president of the college, it is therefore certain proper observation and record to be made at satsporo from this month, that pamphlet & form, i propose, to send to prof. clark for reference. college is now very prosperous.” history of meteorology 9 (2020) 19 wheeler’s “register of meteorological observations” taken in sapporo from september 1876 to march 1877 appeared in the first annual report of sapporo agricultural college in 1877. from this we can see that observations were being made three times daily “in accordance, mainly, with the standard system of the smithsonian institution, washington, u.s.”.82 from these observations, wheeler concluded that “there could be no better advertisement to invite enterprising settlers and capitalists to yesso, than the assurance of a climate favorable to the highest excellence of her future agriculture, and promising pleasant, healthful homes to all her people”.83 he also referred to the educational value of accurate meteorological records, saying that “[t]he work that has here been entered upon will be an essential element in conducting agricultural experiments under the auspices of the college, and will afford a valuable source of instruction for the students”.84 he was a strong supporter of the american meteorological system, buying a copy of lorin blodget’s 1857 book climatology of the united states and twenty copies of elias loomis’ 1868 book a treatise on meteorology to use as one of the textbooks for his students’ advanced classes. 85 henry had trained blodget and, to some extent, loomis using the smithsonian principles. wheeler also argued for a fuller implementation of the american system in japan: by the adoption of a well-organized system of observations and comparisons of the meteorological phenomena in the united states, the approaching conditions of temperature, atmospheric pressure, rain, snow, wind, cloud, etc., are published daily with almost perfect accuracy, throughout the whole country, by the agency of the telegraph and the press; thus conferring countless benefits upon all classes, and especially upon agricultural and commercial enterprise. to prepare for the introduction of a similar system in japan, additional stations must be established throughout the country, according to a comprehensive and carefully devised plan.86 subsequently, in the final part of his report, he provided a concrete plan about additional stations. “having been notified that a duplicate set of meteorological instruments belonging to the kaitakushi is now in sapporo,” he recommended that they be utilised, and “that a station for observations be established at some point near the extreme eastern or north-eastern coast.”87 in the second annual report, wheeler referred to the register of the imperial meteorological observatory at tokyo. he explained that “the prevailing winds at the same seasons, respectively, are approximately north-by-west and south-by-east,—the position of the mass of the island of hondo [main island] on the north, and the warmer ocean currents being more nearly south, partially accounting for the difference noted”.88 in order to “determine conclusively the laws governing the entire movement of the storms along the eastern asiatic coast,” “the extension of data for comparison” by “all future observers here and elsewhere in the empire” would be crucial.89 thus, as his other contemporary americans had pointed out, 82 wheeler, “register of meteorological observations,” 84. 83 ibid., 87. 84 ibid. 85 keuffel and esser’s invoice to william wheeler, 25 october 1877, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c039990000000000&lang=0. william wheeler to hirotake zusho, 25 december 1877, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c040040000000000. 86 wheeler, “register of meteorological observations,” 87–88. 87 ibid., 88. 88 william wheeler, “meteorological report and register of meteorological observations,” in second annual report of sapporo agricultural college (tokyo: kaitakushi, 1878), 138. 89 ibid, 140. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 20 wheeler was proposing a storm warning system whereby “fifteen or twenty well equipped stations” would be established “at favorable points throughout the empire, connected by telegraph with a central station” to enable “reliable predictions to be published at all important shipping ports … in advance of threatening weather.90 like lyman, wheeler used the argument that the expense of such a system would be trivial compared to “the saving of life and property, and the exercise of a nation’s humanity”.91 he likewise suggested capitalising and building on the pre-existing asian network, writing that “[a] few connected stations along the coast of china and corea would greatly increase the extent and efficiency of the system”.92 the kaitakushi launched some of wheeler’s initiatives as official projects around the end of 1876, just three months after his start (fig. 7). they adopted, for instance, the standards of the smithsonian meteorological system, which had been shown to work successfully in sapporo and all over hokkaido in october 1877, implementing this new system in 1878.93 wheeler continued in an advisory role, cautioning the kaitakushi to purchase only standardised instruments for the additional weather stations in october 1877.94 further, he explained to a surveyor in sapporo why a difference in urban thermometric observation had occurred, saying “[i]t is customary in the united states signal service to establish the observatory—especially if in a city, —upon the most elevated places available, in order to secure correct observations of the wind”.95 in addition, wheeler trained three officers to make meteorological observations at hakodate as well as at the kaitakushi’s new branches in nemuro and rumoi from november 1877 to march 1878, even issuing them with a certificate.96 90 ibid. 91 ibid. 92 ibid. 93 sapporo regional headquarters, sapporo kisho hyakunenshi, 22–23. 94 william wheeler to motoi hori, 25 october 1877, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c039980000000000. 95 william wheeler to masakuni yamada, 21 january 1878, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c040100000000000. 96 william wheeler to heinai orita, 18 march 1878, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgi-bin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c040220000000000&lang=0; william wheeler to motoi hori, 27 march 1878, northern studies collection, hokkaido university library, http://www2.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/cgibin/hoppodb/record.cgi?id=0c040330000000000&lang=0. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 21 fig. 7. the kaitakushi’s register of meteorological observations at hakodate. source: national diet library digital collections, http://dl.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/831559 the system established in hokkaido continued for more than ten years and, for the most part, stayed true to the smithsonian meteorological method (for example, routine observations were conducted three times daily). the us signal office had begun issuing a bulletin of international simultaneous observations in 1875, which contained worldwide synoptic charts and weather observations in cooperation with other national weather services. then, in 1881, the introduction of the international simultaneous meteorological observations (monthly report) and emergency telegram enabled internationally-recognised business exchanges to be conducted among the weather stations (such as sapporo or hakodate), the department of geographical survey of the ministry of the interior, and the tokyo meteorological observatory. the kaitakushi’s operations ended with the completion of the kaitakushi tenyear program but observations there continued and, in fact, expanded because of their importance to agriculture. in august 1887, an order from the ministry of interior enacted and enforced nationwide meteorological observations to standardise the weather service, and the central governmentrun tokyo observatory standardised its own directions.97 hokkaido retained the smithsonian 97 sapporo regional headquarters, sapporo kisho hyakunenshi, 23, 27. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 22 routine observation system for a while until the end of 1888. eventually, in january 1889, the american system was completely replaced by the directions of tokyo observatory.98 conclusion this paper has demonstrated in detail the processes through which smithsonian meteorological knowledge were applied in hokkaido, japan’s new northern colony.99 this national project, executed on the uncultivated northern island, was both geographically and scientifically far from tokyo. interestingly too, the europeans then influencing tokyo had little influence in the north. most of the foreigners hired in hokkaido were american, partly result of capron’s influence with the kaitakushi. at that time in the us, it was perceived that the american style of meteorology held excellent potential for rapid development.100 therefore, this enabled both henry and mallery to easily persuade japanese experts to adopt their framework for meteorological study, especially in light of the opening of japan to western civilisation.101 certainly, for the americans engaged in agricultural and meteorological projects in hokkaido, the centre of the meteorological observation system was washington, dc—first, the smithsonian, and later, the signal office, not in tokyo. in telling this story, this case study has hoped to provide ammunition to counter the centre-periphery model and also to show that american scientists and engineers did not forcibly impose american meteorological systems in japan. the kaitakushi’s japanese staff were not just passive reservoirs of the science. the agents involved in the transmission and appropriation of knowledge and skills were fully supportive of the efforts and japanese scientists and staff were actively engaged in applying and elaborating the science in local contexts. so, while mori, henry, and capron had started creating the networks between hokkaido and washington and coordinated the recruitment of american scientists and engineers for the kaitakushi, and while antisell, wheeler, and lyman had brought their style of knowledge to the ground in hokkaido, it was the kaitakushi who adopted and adapted the smithsonian’s directions and obtained instruments and advice from the americans. indeed, even as the smithsonian meteorological project itself ended in the us, hokkaido continued to employ smithsonian style systematic observation, procedures, and instruments. as kapil raj suggested, this is a classic case of western science disseminated “through complex processes of accommodation and negotiation, as contingent as those involved in their production”.102 98 ibid. this meant that american measurements, including feet and fahrenheit, continued to be used in japanese meteorological statistics even though the japanese government had adopted the metric system. takehiko hashimoto, “the introduction of the metric system to japan,” in the introduction of modern science and technology to turkey and japan 11, feza günergun and shigehisa kuriyama, eds. (international research center for japanese studies, 1998), 187–203. the legacies of this system remained, as revealed in the persistance of the american measurement system in hokkaido over the metric system, which henry had rejected as “artificial”, and which was not introduced for several more years. henry thought “the adoption of the metre by the french academy as a standard was a blunder of the first magnitude” and even expressed “in connection with england, as the two great fountains of supply of the anglo saxon race; a race which from its characteristics and its present aggressive indication is destined to control the political operations of the world.” indeed, henry’s nationalism could be credited as one of the reasons for the survival of american-style meteorology in hokkaido. joseph henry to hubert anson newton, 15 june 1865, the papers of joseph henry, vol. 10 (washington: smithsonian institution, 2004), 523–24. 99 this case study demonstrated one of the examples of “global” circulation of knowledge. 100 by the 1870s, the us army signal office’s system of telegraphic storm warnings was the largest and best-funded in the world. fleming, meteorology in america, 163. 101 henry had written that “[t]he institution has taken much interest in the historical phenomenon of the movement in japan in regard to the adoption of western civilization.” mallery also encouraged japan to become a member of the civilised world, saying “simultaneous observations now extended over the greater part of the civilized world”. 102 raj, relocating modern science, 9; raj, “beyond postcolonialism…and postpositivism,” 341. history of meteorology 9 (2020) 23 as to how smithsonian meteorological knowledge and associated practices were applied and “relocated” to hokkaido, the smithsonian’s international exchange service, an international exchange of publications program, played an important role. this program transformed the smithsonian into a national centre for american science, acclaimed by both american and international scientists. through this program, important information such as the smithsonian meteorological directions were distributed to hokkaido for free. in addition to this formal international publication exchange program, there were also less formal mechanisms for exchanging scientific knowledge, which can be viewed in the surviving correspondence from which much of this paper is based, revealing the important role of informal channels of enthusiastic patrons in the dissemination of meteorological knowledge, thanks to the regular trans-pacific mail route and, of course, the development and expansion of the telegraph. these interchanges put scientists and amateurs in direct contact with one other, benefitting both metropole and settler societies.103 acknowledgements i would like to express my gratitude to dr. pamela m. henson and ms. kathleen w. dorman of the smithsonian institution archives. in addition, i would like to thank fiona williamson, vladimir jankovic, and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. without those comments, this paper would never have been completed. this work was supported by jsps kakenhi grant number jp17k01184. 103 historical geographer alan lester has termed it an “imagined geography of empire.” bertrum h. macdonald, “the smithsonian institution and nineteenth-century diffusion of scientific information between the united states and canada,” science in print, rima d. apple, gregory j. downey, and stephen l. vaughn, eds. (madison: university of wisconsin press, 2012), 87–106; sally kohlstedt, “international exchange and national style: a view of natural history museums in the united states, 1850–1900,” scientific colonialism: a cross-cultural comparison, nathan reingold and marc rothenberg, eds. (washington, d.c.: smithsonian institution press, 1987), 167–90. microsoft word 0frontmatter.doc history of meteorology volume 4, 2008 james rodger fleming editor-in-chief history of meteorology is the peer-reviewed journal of the ichm © ichm 2008 issn 1555-5763 proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology introduction, call for papers, and style guide ii this page intentionally left blank history of meteorology 4 (2008) iii contents pages introduction, call for papers for volume 5 and style guide iv-vi donald a. garden (australia), el niño, irrigation dams and stopbanks: examining the repercussions of the 1876-78 el niño in australia and new zealand 1-26 adrian howkins (usa), political meteorology: weather, climate and the contest for antarctic sovereignty, 1939-1959 27-40 matthias dörries (france), the ‘winter’ analogy fallacy: from superbombs to supervolcanoes 41-56 vladimir k. zworykin, outline of weather proposal, 1945 (with historical introduction by james fleming) 57-78 introduction, call for papers, and style guide iv introduction the fourth volume of history of meteorology includes three articles by historians from three continents and a 1945 reprint from the archives about the possible use of computers in weather control. donald garden examines the 1876-1878 el niño in australia and new zealand and studies its effects from the perspective of environmental history. he finds that the “event” was far from uniform, with significant spatial and temporal variations, and in some areas, especially in new zealand, was accompanied by heavy rainfall and flooding rather than the expected drought conditions. adrian howkins examines the political storm swirling around antarctica as scientists tried to study the continent’s weather and politicians from great britain, argentina, and chile jockeyed for position and possible access to mineral resources between 1939 and 1959. he documents a dynamic interaction between science and politics based on existing rivalries and the rhetoric of international cooperation. matthias dörries connects the volcanic past with the nuclear present and the possibility of an apocalyptic future as he explores the loose analogy between ‘nuclear winter’ and ‘volcanic winter’—an analogy that reached the general public without much scrutiny, debate or substantiation. finally, vladimir k. zworykin’s “outline of weather control” issued by the radio corporation of america in 1945 and reprinted here provides source material that both predates and transcends the better-known story of cloud seeding with dry ice and silver iodide at general electric and complements the oft-told story of numerical weather prediction by emphasizing—as zworykin did—weather control. the ichm is the same age as the 21st century. it is in good hands under the leadership of president cornelia lüdecke, vice-president vladimir jankovic, secretary-treasurer doria grimes, and web master roger turner. please browse the homepage http://www.meteohistory.org for announcements and other links, and consider joining us in pursuit of “scholarship and friendship” in the history of meteorology, climatology, and related sciences. the next large gathering of the ichm will be at the international congress of history of science and technology in budapest, hungary in july 2009 where there will be two symposia related to weather and climate: (1) visual languages and representations of the sky: frameworks and focal points in social context and (2) new perspectives on the rise of climate science. i hope to see you there. james r. fleming china, maine history of meteorology 4 (2008) v history of meteorology call for papers papers on the history of meteorology, climatology, and related sciences are now being accepted for consideration in history of meteorology 5, to be edited by samuel randalls. articles should be based on original research and present a novel thesis. they must be engaging, clearly written, and fully documented, following the style guide below. all papers will be subject to peer review. authors are reminded that international and interdisciplinary perspectives are encouraged and articles should engage social, cultural, and/or intellectual themes and contexts. because this is an electronic journal, it is possible to publish color illustrations and experiment with alternative media such as audio and video files and databases. session conveners are invited to propose special sections or issues of the journal. history of meteorology has a stable url at http://meteohistory.org and has been assigned issn 1555-5763 by the u.s. library of congress. it is currently being indexed by two leading services: isis current bibliography of the history of science (from which citations are posted online on the rlg history of science and technology database) and meteorological and geoastrophysical abstracts. the submission deadline for volume five is 1 october 2009, but earlier notice is appreciated. queries or manuscripts should be directed to the guest editor, samuel randalls, e-mail s.randalls@ucl.ac.uk introduction, call for papers, and style guide vi style guide manuscripts for history of meteorology are to be submitted electronically to the editor in ms word format (please ask in advance about other formats). before publication, authors must certify that their work is original and that all necessary permissions have been acquired. format paper size: u.s. letter margins: 1.0 inch on all sides headers and footers: 0.5 inch (left blank except for preliminary pagination) line spacing: double font: text: 12 point times new roman; captions: 11 point times new roman section headers: use of bold section headers is encouraged paper length: less than 10,000 words, including citations. ask if your manuscript is longer than this. figures and tables figures must be provided as separate image files (jpeg or tiff) with a resolution of at least 150 dpi. both figures and tables must be 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the short reference format for subsequent citations of a text (e.g. petterssen, weather forecasting, 12.). endnotes are not meant to be discursive. microsoft word 06rohr.doc history of meteorology 2 (2005) 71 the danube floods and their human response and perception (14th to 17th c) christian rohr department of history and political science, university of salzburg, austria e-mail: christian.rohr@sbg.ac.at introduction there are hardly any studies on floods in late medieval, early modern and modern austria, except some case studies1 and concise surveys on natural disasters in general2. all studies on climate history only deal with the times from the beginning of systematic measurement of temperature and water level during the second half of the 18th century.3 therefore, contrary to some neighbour countries, such as germany,4 switzerland,5 and the czech lands,6 any major and more general publication on the history of floods before the 18th century is still missing. this paper will, therefore, also show some major lacunae to be filled by future studies. my habilitation study people and natural disasters at the end of the middle ages and in early modern times (13th to 16th c.), to be concluded in early 2006, will try to cover the history of the floods prior than 1600 from the perspective of cultural history. the analysis is based on a comparative study of different natural hazards: floods, earthquakes, other natural hazards and risks, including animal plagues, but excluding diseases and epidemics. in this way it may be carved out, which hazards had been experienced as disasters and which had not. in this paper, emphasis will be given to a “mentality bound approach”, which asks for the perception, interpretation, management and cultural responses to floods. it will be shown that these aspects are influenced rather more by the expectation of floods than by religious beliefs. contrary to many other natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods were almost common to people living near the riverside. towns, located on the banks of a river, were confronted repeatedly with two different “faces” of the water way: the axis of trade and wealth could turn into a threatening enemy, causing enormous or, at least, some damage to their property and their lives. this study will examine in particular the reactions of the people living close to the danube river and its catchment area in “austria” between the 14th and 17th centuries. as climate and weather history of pre-modern times is based on non-objective measurement, it is not easy to get proxy data from records such as “this year happened an extraordinary flood”. so, the following questions have to be answered to contextualize non-objective records: danube floods 72 how did the people experience these floods? how did the specific interpretations of these days look like? can they be called “irrational” or had the people built up a “culture of flood management”?7 how did they manage the floods with the available means? did the strategies of perception, interpretation and management change within the period from the late middle ages to the 17th century? were “public reactions”, such as the legislations of city councils, the landlords and the modern state, always equivalent to “individual reactions”? did people in the cities and in the countryside learn from experience and change their living and working attitudes in the course of consecutive flood events? due to the lack of good sources for the 14th to 17th centuries it is necessary to use a combination of methods: i take over results from natural sciences, such as historical meteorology and hydrography, and results from archaeological and geological studies. then i combine them with an historical analysis of written and pictorial sources, such as narrative sources, charters, economic records, early drawings, and flood marks. it is also important to define, what has been perceived as a disaster, a question to be solved in historical anthropology. nature knows only natural events, only human perception makes them disasters. important determinants for the perception as disaster are: • the helplessness of people trying to cope with the damage with the available means • people’s helplessness not only in coping with the events but also in explaining them • the direct or indirect affliction • the unexpectedness of the event one of the central aspects for interpretation is the “mentalities”of the people. i would like to define them as follows: “mentalities are horizons of experience and the sum of all the factors determining the possibilities (and also the impossibilities) of thinking and acting in a given society or in parts of that society. in our case this mainly concerns the perception of natural disasters, the explanations and the strategies used to handle them, and any ideas about disasters more generally.”8 firstly i will examine the sources concerning the “millennium flood” of 1501. secondly i try to show that, at least from the end of the middle ages, a “culture of flood management” already existed among the people living along the danube river and its catchment area in austria. thirdly, i will focus on the daily life along the riverside by analysing the accounts of the bridge master of wels (1441-1520). finally, i try to answer the question, whether the perceptions and interpretations have changed during the struggle of confessions in the 16th and 17th centuries. the “millennium flood” of 1501 in a first step of my examination i will try to find out how people perceived, interpreted and managed the extraordinary flood of 1501. it has been far the largest flood of the danube river and its catchment area east of regensburg (bavaria) during the second millennium. it happened in the middle of august and lasted for about ten days; the flood was mainly caused by heavy rainfall in the whole catchment area of the danube river. the sources i use reflect the perception of people who had really been eyewitnesses, for instance the monks in the monasteries of melk, göttweig and klosterneuburg along the danube river in lower austria, but also the municipal accounts from wels. the sources mostly tell about the damage, but hardly anything about the reactions of the people. one of the few history of meteorology 2 (2005) 73 exceptions is the report of the annals of melk on the devastating flood of 1501. the annalist, obviously an eyewitness, wrote:9 hoc anno maxima fuit aquarum inundacio, in vigilia assumptionis marie inchoans, et durans fere per dies decem. huiuscemodi gurgitis habundatia in centum annis vix visa fuit similis, quod testatur femina forensis centum et septem etatis habens annos. frumentum ac fenum a quibusdam reconditum hystro periit, in agris iam secatum pluvia computruit. per cunctas urbium opidorumque iuxta danubium sic largiter gurges aquarum transiit, ut navigabiles existerent. domos funditus evertit, duas cum familia mellicum pretereundo versus orientem asportavit. prata atque pomeria vestivit arena, arboresque deiecit et vineas eradicavit, integra cum horreis stabula, omnisque generis supellectilis substancia defluxit noctuque dieque. magna denique opida cum villis in tantum debachatus est danubius, ut unam domum vix vidisses integram. pars una populi ridebat, pars altera flebat. hic et in partibus bohemie innumeris ruptis lacunis, noctu magna pars periit hominum et facti sunt iuxta abacuk vaticinium homines velud pisces maris. in ecclesiam quoque beate virginis forensem gurges aquarum introiens, cubitum unum ultra altaria per idem tempus stabat, et sedes cum tumulis subvertendo. in this year, a very heavy flood happened, which started on the day before the ascension of mary and lasted for nearly ten days. within 100 years, hardly anyone could remember such a high flood, as a 107-year-old woman has testified. the grain and hay, which was just going to be harvested, was destroyed by the danube, and the just cut grain mouldered after heavy rain. the water streamed through all parts of the cities and fortified places along the danube river so copiously that they seemed to be navigable. the flood destroyed houses thoroughly, and when it passed at melk, it carried away eastwards two houses together with their inhabitants. the flood covered the meadows and pastures with sand, threw down trees and uprooted the vines; strong farmsteads with their barns and all kinds of household effects were swept away during the nights and days. finally the danube river destroyed so much inside the major towns and villages that hardly any house remained undamaged. one part of the people laughed, one part cried. in austria and also in some parts of bohemia a large number of people died in the slough during the night, and they became fish according to the prophecy of habakkuk. the flood also entered the parish church of the virgin mary at melk and rose to a level one inch higher than the altar; it also destroyed the banks inside and the graveyard. besides the reports on the damage of buildings and fields, and besides the reports on people who were killed, two remarks seem particularly interesting: on the one hand, we frequently read that no one, even the oldest people, could remember a disaster like that. on the other hand, what does this unique remark “a part of the people laughed” mean? may we consider a conflict between landlords or a social conflict between peasants and landlords? was it a kind of gloating? was it gallows humour that people had to go to church by boat? in antique tragedy, for danube floods 74 instance, crying and laughing, ridiculous and tragic emotions, were sometimes close together. so, this may be an expression for extreme emotional reactions of the people. the sources do not contain any rational or irrational interpretations and explanations as to why the flood had happened. on the one hand, we have quite a lot of evidence that people knew well about the different ways a flood could grow. on the other hand, the flood of 1501 was definitely not set into connection with comets or other astronomic signs, such as eclipses. it is remarkable that these combinations were restricted to only few authors, mostly dating from the 14th century, such as the author of the bohemian “chronica aulae regiae”, who presumably had not been an eye-witness of the floods of the danube river in the second decade of the 14th century.10 in the continuation of the annals of zwettl, this explanation is emphasized with reference to bede the venerable and other medieval scholars: “the star called comet had been seen for 80 days without interruption. … it announces either famine or a big disease or high mortality or a change of reign or a corruption of the air or heavy storms”.11 in 1316 and 1317 a large flood, diseases and great famine followed. it is remarkable that in only some of these sources from the beginning of the 14th century floods were compared with the biblical deluge.12 reading the book of genesis and its report on the great deluge properly, it is remarkable that at the end god promises not to send such a deluge again. maybe the people living in the 15th century remembered this promise well. nevertheless, these connections between floods and astronomical signs were quite rare and did not occur frequently in the 15th century. floods did not need a supernatural explanation, because they were obviously part of nature. let me also turn to the management of the floods. we have to distinguish between the economic impact, the impact on settlement, and the mental impact. if we look at the example of wels, situated along the traun river in upper austria, the flood of 1501 was the only one which changed the economic and social life of the town. numerous landowners and peasants left their meadows, woods and orchards located near the river after they had been totally destroyed. some of them were given up, most of them were sold to other people, but the flood also built new islands in the river, which became cultivated quickly. although the repairs must have been enormous – we have records about expenses for the craftsmen between august 1501 and march 1502 – the reserve of timber must have been at least sufficient. only after some consecutive disastrous floods in 1503 and 1508, did good timber become extremely rare and far more expensive.13 during the devastating flood of 1501 the water level rose far higher than at any time in the second millennium, i.e. about 2 meters higher than in 1954 and in 2002. so, the authorities started to build their tax houses and other buildings for administration on higher ground. the first floor did not contain any windows, as the example of engelhartszell in upper austria shows. the old toll house bears a historical flood mark from 1501 close under the roof. the new toll house, however, built in the 16th century, would have survived even the flood of 1501 without major problems. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 75 fig, 1. engelhartszell, upper austria, photography, 1954 (taken from siegfried schwarzl, die hochwasserbedrohung wiens. elementarereignisse an der donau im rahmen der klimaentwicklung (wetter und leben, sonderheft 4), österreichische gesellschaft für meteorologie, vienna, 1956, 2). the red line shows the water level of 1501 according to the flood mark under the roof of the old toll house (in the middle). the new toll house, built after 1501, is on the right. finally, is there any possibility to get a view of the mental management of the floods? it is remarkable that after the big flood of 1501 people started to mark the level of the water. these flood marks can be found mostly on toll houses and other buildings of public administration, on town gates near the riverside, and also on private houses. in some cases, such as in passau and in linz, these water level marks are quite elaborate. the still-existing marble slab of linz tells in early modern german and in humanistic latin about the flood. only the birds have been eyewitnesses, sitting on top of the roofs.14 danube floods 76 hiermit disen stain beczaichene stat wie hach die donaw geraichet hat das ist beschiehen im monet augusti bey regirung römischen kunig maximiliani da von cristi gepurde erganngen war tawsennt funfhundert und ain jar the place, which is marked with this stone, shows how high the level of the danube river had been. this has happened in the month of august under the reign of the holy roman king maximilian, in the year 1501 after jesus christ was born. svm nota qvanta fvit vndarvm conspice moles palvstris vates cvivs avis fverat qve tanto sedit mestissima tempore tectis dilvivm qvanto tempore triste fvit look, i am the sign, how much the flood has been, whose witness has been a bird from the swamp, which sat just in this very sad time on the roofs, when the sorrowful flood happened. we have to consider that a kind of memory culture helped the people to cope with the disaster. on the one hand, any new flood mark lower than the maximum of 1501 could give the feeling that it had been even worse some time ago. on the other hand, the knowledge that nobody could remember a similar flood could serve as consolation. in addition to that, it is maybe no surprise that one of the oldest views of linz, a pen-andink-drawing (figure 2), shows the city during a big flood. the drawing must have been made between 1497 (the privilege for a bridge) and 1509 (a great fire).15 so, it is very likely that it depicts one of the major floods around 1500, maybe the one from 1501, 1503 or 1508. fig. 2. linz, upper austria, during a flood of the danube river, pen-and-ink-drawing by wolf huber (?), around 1500/1510. mayrhofer and katzinger date the drawing to about 1550.16 history of meteorology 2 (2005) 77 at the end of the middle ages: a culture of flood management the question still remains: is it possible to reconstruct and contextualize “natural disasters” without reconstructing the “normal”. which natural hazards have been experienced as disasters, and which not? has there been a “culture of flood management” or did people only experience a flood as a disaster if the warning and prevention system did not work? nearly all floods happened either in february and march during the snow-melt or in summer between june and august after heavy or continuous rain. it was, therefore, worth reporting, if a flood hit the people unexpectedly. it seems to me that remarks like “inopinata inundatio” (an unexpected flood) meant that a doubtlessly existing system of warning and prevention did not work. i suppose that there had existed such a system especially among the monasteries along the danube river, but also via merchants. people knew that a flood on the danube in lower austria could also be caused by heavy rain in tyrol or salzburg. it is remarkable that records about men and animals killed mostly occur in connection with the remark that the flood came unexpectedly. we may presume that in case of a warning in time, only buildings and fields were destroyed, but not people. it also seems that a specific constellation of the stars had been rather felt as a disaster (= greek: corruption of the stars) than a major flood. the city of wels, a town with roman origins, is situated on the traun river, one of the major affluents of the danube river in austria. the river is widely branched out, an ideal place for a bridge, as the copperplate print by matthäus merian from 1649 shows. in the 5th century ad floods have been presumably jointly responsible for the decline of the town. a bridge across the traun river had existed in roman times, whereas the medieval bridge is testified from the 12th century onwards. danube floods 78 fig. 3. wels, upper austria, copperplate print by matthäus merian (topographia austriae, frankfurt 1649) looking for a history of the floods of the traun river, there is much evidence from the charters: six charters dating from 1352 to 1469 are extant. they were granted by the habsburgian dukes of austria, who were also the sovereigns of the city of wels. to prevent damage from floods and to accelerate the repairs, several privileges were given to the citizens of wels:17 • the taxes at the toll house in wels on salt, wine and textiles were dedicated to the construction of water defenses. • the tax interests of the citizens of wels were reduced by the habsburgian dukes. more money should be spent for dikes and other water defenses. • the landowners had to admit the construction of water defenses on their properties. • the landowners, their bondsmen and two large monasteries in the neighbourhood had to assist if damage after a flood had to be removed. so, normative sources tell us quite a lot about the collective management of floods, but nothing about individual reactions or about the mentalities of the people. the charters can be seen as reactions to presumably disastrous floods, which could not be coped with by available means; regional solidarity was necessary. but one question still remains: is it possible to reconstruct all major floods of the traun river by analysing the charters of the later middle ages? let me, therefore, turn to another type of source. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 79 the accounts of the bridge master of wels 18 from the 13th century onwards the office of a bridge master had been established, who was responsible for any repair. according to a series of charters, he received his annual budget from a nearby church. the oldest accounts of the bridge master date from 1350, but a close series of accounts has survived only from 1441 onwards. the accounts contain detailed information about the timber purchase for the bridge and about the expenses for craftsmen to repair the bridge after floods and other damage. in my recent study from 2004 my main purpose was to carve out the economic impact of the floods between 1441 and 1520 and to ask, how a “culture of flood management” could have worked. the results have been multifarious: firstly, it shows that the consumption of timber and the expenses for the bridge was enormous. secondly, i was able to reconstruct how often floods hit the bridge and the city of wels. i could find records even on major floods, which have not yet been documented through annals, chronicles or other administrative sources. for these results it was rather more necessary to look at the expenses for craftsmen than on the ones for timber. fig. 4. expenses of the bridge master of wels for timber (1471-1520), based on rohr, 2004, op. cit. thirdly, it came clear that the bridge master bought high amounts of timber every year. due to the frequent repetition of the floods (at least two major ones within a decade), he must have had large dumps, because in the times of a major flood timber was hard to acquire. after a series of tremendous floods in 1501, 1503 and 1508, no oak stems for the piles were available any longer; therefore, larch stems were substituted. danube floods 80 table 1. floods of the traun river, 1441-1520, according to the accounts of the bridge master (bruckamtsrechnungen) of wels. source: rohr, 2004, op. cit., 310-312. year month floods intensity 1441 no flood 1442 no accounts survived 1443 june/july flood with ravages, hail? strong 1444 june/july flood? little 1445 april/may flood with ravages strong 1446-1458 no accounts survived 1459 no flood 1460 april/may flood little 1461 end of august flood with ravages moderate 1462 august flood little 1463 march / august ice blocks? flood? little 1464-1470 no accounts survived 146919 february, march flood with severe ravages strong 1471 summer flood? little 1472 summer flood? little 1473 summer flood? little 1474 june/july flood moderate 1475 no flood 1476-1477 no accounts survived 1478 summer? flood with severe ravages very strong 1479 april/may flood moderate 1480 may/june flood little 1481 february ice blocks? moderate 1482 january ice blocks? moderate 1483 no flood 1484 june? august? flood little 1485 june to september four floods with ravages strong 1486 february, may two floods moderate 1487 july flood? little 1488 no flood 1489 november flood with ravages strong 1490 july flood moderate 1491 may/june flood little 1492 may flood with severe ravages very strong 1493 july flood little 1494 no accounts survived 1495 march flood? little 1496 august flood moderate 1497 may, june two floods with ravages strong 1498 march, august? flood moderate 1499 june flood with severe ravages very strong 1500 april, may two? flood with ravages moderate/strong 1501 july?, august disastrous flood extremely strong 1502 no flood 1503 september flood with severe ravages very strong 1504 may flood moderate 1505 may/june, august two floods moderate 1506 july flood? little history of meteorology 2 (2005) 81 1507 august? flood? moderate 1508 july, august two floods with ravages very strong 1509 fall? flood? little 1510 no accounts survived 1511 july flood with ravages strong 1512 no flood? 1513 no flood 1514 june, august zwei floods little/moderate 1515 summer flood with ravages strong 1516 june flood little/moderate 1517 july flood little/moderate 1518 no flood 1519 april, june, september three floods with ravages strong 1520 august flood with severe ravages very strong the economic impact of the “millennium flood” of 1501 can be reconstructed in great detail: carpenters and other craftsmen worked from august to december 1501, and again several months in 1502 to repair the bridge. numerous meadows and orchards along the riverside were distroyed and their owners changed. perhaps the former owners were killed or moved away. from 1502 onwards, taxes for land on the new banks of the traun river were paid. timber, especially oak stems, became rare and expensive besides some interesting information on daily life, such as on the butchers huts located on the bridge or on the expenses when the king entered the town, the accounts also provide an insight into a “culture of living with the flood”. when the flood arrived, everybody tried to participate in the restoration of the bridge. if the bridge was interrupted, several carpenters, dozens of servants, and numerous fishermen, who saved the driftwood, tried to construct a provisional bridge within only a few days. in many years, these repairs constituted about 10 to 20 percent of the carpenters’ annual work. it is worth noting that there are absolutely no records about religious donations or the like, a remarkable detail, because the accounts also contain the income of the nearby church. i could also not find records showing desperation, anger, fear or similar emotions. a change of interpretations during the struggle of confessions? it is hard to get an homogenous idea of the perception, interpretation and management of floods in early modern times. on the one hand, numerous private or “official” chronicles and diaries have survived, containing partly detailed records about the weather and natural hazards. on the other hand, we know more about the impact of natural hazards on the religious behaviour of the people. nevertheless, we have to be cautious to assume that people now perceived disasters more through a religious way than at the end of the middle ages. as i have shown before, the prejudice that people in the middle ages interpreted floods mostly as a divine punishment cannot be confirmed by most of the sources. we are still influenced too much by the perception of black death, which is documented best in the sources. in many cases, if people were living along the riverside, cosmic signs, such as comets, would frighten them, but not floods.20 so we have to look to see if this assumption can also be falsified for early modern times. in addition to that, as i have pointed out in my introduction, there are hardly any satisfying studies on natural disasters in early modern austria, even though among the authors danube floods 82 of sources with an interest in weather and climate there are also very prominent ones, such as johannes kepler, who had lived in linz for many years at the begin of the 17th century. in his marginal notes he provides detailed comments on the weather in linz between 1617 and 1626.21 besides kepler, there are numerous other late renaissance and early modern scientists from the 16th and 17th centuries, who documented both the daily weather and the floods. they were mostly living in the major towns, such as linz and vienna, or in the big monasteries along the danube river and its catchment area.22 let me therefore show two different examples for the perception, interpretation and management of floods in early modern times. on the one hand, the case of the city of laufen and its bridge across the salzach river, may confirm that most of the structures of a “culture of flood management” did not change within the 16th century. the wooden bridge of laufen existed since the 13th century and had been destroyed for many times since 1316; the disastrous floods of 1567, 1572 and 1598 are well documented in the municipal sources. like in wels, timber was extremely rare in the time of major floods. therefore, the citizens of laufen invested much money and effort to restore the piles and other timber after the bridge had been destroyed. in 1572 the peasants were severely forbidden to take the drifting timber for their own purposes. the city also received 2.500 guilders from the archbishop of salzburg as an immediate support to rebuild the bridge. nevertheless, even with this loan, it became extremely difficult to find specialized craftsmen for the reconstruction, because these master builders were needed in the neighbour towns also.23 the consequences of major floods did not only concern the reconstruction of the bridge, but also the toll to be paid by the passing ships. in “normal” years, about 2500 to 3000 ships passed the dangerous loop near laufen, mostly carrying salt from the mountains to the danube area. in 1572, however, when one of the highest floods took place, only 1553 ships came along. 28 ships sank at the local landing stage, whereas in quiet years an average of only two ships were lost.24 the major floods also caused hygienic problems, not only because the streets and the lower floors of the houses were flooded, but also because the supply of drinking water had been interrupted. in 1540, the city authorities of laufen had built a water-pipe from the village of oberndorf at the opposite riverside, which led across the salzach river along the bridge. for emergencies, they had also built up a storage dump for 150 water pipes made of pinewood; the flood of 1572, however, hit this location as well.25 so, we may define the flood of 1572 as a disaster, because all kinds of prevention did not work. on the other hand, the catholic counter reformation was responsible for a thoroughly religious interpretation and management of floods in austria and bavaria. the bohemian saint john of nepomuk (jan nepomucky), who died at the end of the 14th century, became more and more popular not only as the patron of the bridges, but also as a protector against floods. statues of saint john of nepomuk were erected on nearly every bridge, along the riversides and even on rocks inside the river. the boatmen wore amulets of john of nepomuk, which they bought in bohemia. although the statues had been frequently destroyed, they were erected again and again. only after the disastrous flood of 1899, was the statue of the saint on the rock near the so-called “vornbacher innenge” not restored for a long time. in a time of lay culture and industrialisation, the protector against the flood was not popular enough any longer.26 nevertheless, it is remarkable that the people of the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries looked for the help of a saint against the flood rather than to explain the flood as a divine punishment or the like. contrary to other natural hazards, the explanations for a flood were clear. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 83 conclusion the accounts of the bridge master of wels give us a detailed insight into the history of floods and their management during the 15th and 16th centuries. through the expenses for the craftsmen many more floods can be reconstructed than through annalistic or normative sources. religious explanations and responses for floods are hardly documented. the “normality” of frequent floods is an important explanation, as to why there are hardly any religious interpretations necessary within a “culture of flood management” and why most of the floods are not documented in annalistic sources. danube floods 84 endnotes 1 cf. for example wacha, georg, 1959, zur wetterchronik des linzer raumes, in witterung und klima von linz, eds. friedrich lauscher, georg wacha (wetter und leben, sonderheft 6), österreichische gesellschaft für meteorologie, vienna, 3-86; friedrich lauscher, 1996, unwetterchronik des pinzgau, land salzburg, seit 1501, wetter und leben, zeitschrift für angewandte meteorologie, österreichische gesellschaft für meteorologie, vienna, 38, 26-36; helmut kretschmer, herbert tschulk, 1993, brände und naturkatastrophen in wien (wiener geschichtsblätter, beiheft 1), verein für geschichte der stadt wien, vienna; elisabeth strömmer, 1993, studien zur klimageschichte österreichs in der frühen neuzei, die quellen des stadtarchives klosterneuburg (unprinted m.a. thesis), university of vienna, vienna; hans roth, 1997, die alte laufener salzachbrücke. das hochwasser als ständige gefahr für brücke und stadt, das salzfas, heimatkundliche zeitschrift des historischen vereins rupertiwinkel, historischer verein rupertiwinkel e.v, tittmoning, 31,1, 5-32; anna gugerbauer, ernst dürr, 1999, vom zorn des inn, hochwasserkatastrophen in schärding und den bayerischen nachbargemeinden, verlag wiesner, wernstein; horst hieble, herbert lämmermeyer, heinz schmidbauer, 2003, die salzachbrücke zwischen laufen und oberndorf, von der ersten erwähnung eines salzachüberganges im jahre 1278 bis zur gegenwart, zeitdokumente horst hieble, laufen. 2 lehner, martina, 1995, und das unglück ist von gott gemacht ..., geschichte der naturkatastrophen in österreich, edition präsens, vienna. the chapter on floods between the high middle ages and the 20th century covers only 22 pages (57-78); similarly josef nussbaumer, 1996, die gewalt der natur. eine chronik der naturkatastrophen von 1500 bis heute, edition sandkorn, grünbach; franz fliri, 1998, naturchronik von tirol. tirol – oberpinzgau – vorarlberg – trentino. beiträge zur klimatographie von tirol, verlag wagner, innsbruck; frederick watzik, 1994, hochwasser, in die donau. facetten eines europäischen stromes, katalog zur oberösterreichischen landesausstellung 1994 in engelhartszell, amt der oberösterreichischen landesregierung, linz, 63-68. 3 zisser, helmut, 1989, die hochwässer der donau (unprinted m.a. thesis vienna), technical university of vienna, vienna; ingeborg auer, 1993, niederschlagsschwankungen in österreich seit beginn der instrumentellen beobachtungen durch die zentralanstalt für meteorologie und geodynamik (österreichische beiträge zu meteorologie und geophysik 7), zentralanstalt für meteorologie und geodynamik, vienna; ingeborg auer, 2001, reinhard böhm, wolfgang schöner, austrian long-term climate 1767-2000. multiple instrumental climate time series from central europe, (österreichische beiträge zu meteorologie und geophysik 25), zentralanstalt für meteorologie und geodynamik, vienna; elisabeth strömmer, 2003, klima-geschichte. methoden der rekonstruktion und historische perspektive. ostösterreich 1700 bis 1830 (forschungen und beiträge zur wiener stadtgeschichte 39), verlag deuticke, vienna. 4 glaser, rüdiger, 2001, klimageschichte mitteleuropas. 1000 jahre wetter, klima, katastrophen, wissenschaftliche buchgesellschaft, darmstadt; generally for central europe cf. for example christian pfister, rudolf brázdil, rüdiger glaser (eds.), 1999, climatic variability in sixteenth-century europe and its social dimension (special issue of climatic change 43,1), kluver, dordrecht, boston, london. history of meteorology 2 (2005) 85 5 pfister, christian, 2002, wetternachhersage. 500 jahre klimavariationen und naturkatastrophen (1496-1995), verlag paul haupt, berne, stuttgart, vienna, 1999; christian pfister (ed.), am tag danach. zur bewältigung von naturkatastrophen in der schweiz 15002000, verlag paul haupt, berne, stuttgart, vienna, and many of his other studies. 6 brázdil, rudolf, 1995, old ich kotyza, history of weather and climate in the czech lands, vol. 1: period 1000-1500 (zürcher geographische schriften 62), geographisches institut eth , zurich; 1996, vol. 2: the earliest daily weather records in the czech lands, masaryk university, brno; 1999, vol. 3: daily weather records in the czech lands in the sixteenth century ii, masaryk university, brno; 2000, vol. 4: utilisation of economic sources for the study of climate fluctuation in the louny region in the fifteenth-seventeenth centuries, masaryk university, brno; 2004, vol. 5: instrumental meteorological measurement in moravia up to the end of the eighteenth century, masaryk university, brno, 2002; vol. 6: strong winds, masaryk university, brno, and many of their other studies. 7 the term “culture of flood management” follows the term “cultures of disasters” introduced by greg bankoff, 2003, cultures of disaster. society and natural hazard in the philippines, routledge curzon, london, new york. 8 rohr, christian, 2003, “man and natural disaster in the late middle ages. the earthquake in carinthia and northern italy on january 25th 1348 and its perception, in coping with the unexpected. natural disasters and their perception, michael kempe, christian rohr, eds., (environment & history, special issue 9,2), the white horse press, strond, isle of harris, 127-149 [= rohr, 2003a]. 9 annales mellicenses, 1851, continuatio mellicensis ad a. 1501 (ed. wilhelm wattenbach, monumenta germaniae historica, scriptores 9, hanover, reprint stuttgart 1983, 501-535), 528. on this record see rohr, christian, 2004, überschwemmungen an der traun zwischen alltag und katastrophe. die welser traunbrücke im spiegel der bruckamtsrechnungen des 15. und 16. jahrhunderts, jahrbuch des musealvereins wels, musealverein wels, wels, 33, 281-328. 10 chronica aulae regiae, pars prima 128, 1875, ed. johann loserth, fontes rerum austriacarum 1,8, vienna, p. 379: iste annus domini 1316 tot in se pestilentias et miserias continet, quod eas audire auris refugit, mens stupescit; in hoc anno, ut supra diximus, cometa quaedam in parte aquiloni apparuit, quae disponente deo plurima pericula nuntiavit, aestatis facta est ex continuatis imbribus tam copiosa aquarum habundantia, quod more diluvii in locis pluribus subverteret aedificia, muros et castra. see also pautsch, eveline, 1953, elementarereignisse in den erzählenden österreichischen geschichtsquellen des 14. und 15. jh. (unprinted phd thesis), university of vienna, vienna, 31. 11 annales mellicenses, continuatio zwetlensis ad a. 1316, 1851, ed. wilhelm wattenbach, monumenta germaniae historica, scriptores 9, hanover reprint stuttgart 1983, 654-669), 659: stella que cometa dicitur visa est per continuos lxxx dies; que secundum bedam et alios doctores ostentat verl famem aut pestilenciam vel mortalitatem vel mutacionem regni vel aeris intemperiem aut ventorum immanitatem. see also pautsch, 1953, op. cit., 31. 12 chronica aulae regiae (see note 10); annales sancti rudberti salisburgensis, continuatio canonicorum sancti rudberti salisburgensis ad a. 1316, 1851, ed. wilhelm wattenbach, monumenta germaniae historica, scriptores 9, hanover reprint stuttgart 1983, 819-823, 822: item eodem anno ante festum iohannis baptiste [24th june] et in vigilia eiusdem et danube floods 86 in vigilia apostolorum petri et pauli [28th june] triplex inundatio tanta aquarum facta fuit, quod quasi particulare diluvium videretur. 13 see in detail rohr, 2004, op. cit., 308-310 and below., 14 on this marble slab see also werner kresser, 1957, die hochwässer der donau schriftenreihe des österreichischen wasserwirtschaftsverbandes 32-33, springer-verlag, vienna, 11. 15 pfeffer, franz, 1954, eine linzer stadtansicht aus dem beginn des 16. jahrhunderts, historisches jahrbuch der stadt linz, magistrat der stadt linz, linz, 1953, lxxiv-lxxxix. 16 drawing taken from fritz mayrhofer/willibald katzinger, geschichte der stadt linz, volume 1: von den anfängen zum barock, verlag j. wimmer, linz, 1990, 110). mayrhofer and katzinger, however, presume that the drawing was made only around 1550. 17 on these charters dating from 1352 to 1469 see in detail rohr, 2004, op. cit., 287-293. 18 see in detail rohr, 2004, op. cit. 19 flood reconstructed through a charter by the emperor frederic iii (29th march 1469) to the community of citizens in wels. the flood must be either caused by very much melting water or dates, in fact, from 1468. in september or october 1468 floods are documented for central germany and the area of lake constance, in march 1469 floods also happened in lorraine and thuringia. see curt weikinn, 1958, quellentexte zur witterungsgeschichte europas von der zeitwende bis zum jahre 1850, vol. 1: hydrographie, part 1,1: zeitwende-1500 (quellensammlung zur hydrographie und meteorologie 1), akademie-verlag, berlin, 406-407. 20 rohr, christian, 2001, mensch und naturkatastrophe im mittelalter. tendenzen und probleme einer mentalitätsbezogenen umweltgeschichte des mittelalters, in umweltgeschichte. arbeitsfelder – forschungsansätze – perspektiven, eds. sylvia hahn, reinhold reith (querschnitte. einführungstexte zur sozial-, wirtschaftsund kulturgeschichte 8), verlag für geschichte und politik, oldenbourg verlag, vienna, munich, 13-31; rohr, christian, 2003, der fluss als ernährer und zerstörer. zur wahrnehmung, deutung und bewältigung von überschwemmungen an den flüssen salzach und inn (13.–16. jahrhundert) in naturkatastrophen / catastrophes naturelles, eds. monika gisler, katja hürlimann, agnes nienhaus (special issue of traverse. zeitschrift für geschichte / revue d’histoire 10, 3), chronos verlag, zurich, 37-49 [= rohr, 2003b], and rohr, 2003a, op. cit., 128-129, (focussing on the perception of earthquakes and floods). 21 see for example wacha, 1959, op. cit., 47-62 (with an edition and translation for a part of kepler’s marginal notes) and strömmer, 2003, op. cit., 12-16, who pointed out, what should be done in research for the future. 22 see wacha 1959, op. cit., 12-27. 23 see in detail roth, 1997, op. cit.; rohr, 2003b, op. cit., 43-44. 24 koller, fritz, 1983, die salzachschiffahrt bis zum 16. jahrhundert, mitteilungen der gesellschaft für salzburger landeskunde, gesellschaft für salzburger landeskunde, salzburg 123, 1-126, in particular 21-23 with table 2. 25 see in detail roth, hans, 1996, die anfänge der laufener wasserversorgung. der bau einer wasserleitung von oberndorf in die stadt im jahr 1540 und die zeit bis 1600, das salzfass. heimatkundliche zeitschrift des historischen vereins rupertiwinkel, historischer verein rupertiwinkel e.v, tittmoning, 30,2, 81-104, in particular 94-100. 26 dürr, gugerbauer 1999, op. cit., 176-183. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 39 on climates and disciplines in norway in the 1870s gunnar ellingsen gunnar.ellingsen@uib.no ahkr, university of bergen in the 1870s there were two scientific experts on climate in norway. their climates shared space, but not time, and the knowledge about them was produced from different scientific objects: the atmosphere and the flora. 1 this paper discusses how these bodies of knowledge about climate were formed in different emerging disciplines, and how they represent distinctive views of what constituted scientific knowledge about climate. formed within the same small scientific institution in christiania, and influenced by the political agendas of an emerging nation-state, they show both the political significance and the semantic diversity of the scientific concept ‘climate’ in norwegian science in the 1870s. the first expert was axel blytt (1843-1898), botanist at the botanical garden in christiania (now oslo) from 1862, and professor of botany at the university from 1880. 2 it was the history of the norwegian flora that caught blytt’s interest and turned his attention towards climate. throughout history, varying climate had produced plant distribution patterns in norway, manifested as separate layers in peat bogs. from the study of these patterns and layers, blytt produced knowledge about norway’s climate in the past. the other expert, working at the same institution, was henrik mohn (1835-1916), who was appointed first director of the norwegian meteorological institute and professor of meteorology at the university in christiania by the norwegian parliament in 1866. 3 unlike blytt, mohn was interested in the directly observable climate and not its history. this article will discuss differences and similarities in blytt’s and mohn’s climate studies, including their relationships to objectivity, to historization, and to ideological or political aspects of their work. in blytt’s theory, the immigration of plants was an element with strong nationalistic connotations and relevance for contemporary historicizations of the norwegian people. his theory is an illuminating example of katherine anderson’s argument that climate ideas originated outside meteorology. 4 in andersons view, meteorology was a “test case” where speculation challenged “disciplined, baconian observation” in the claim for authority. while the botanist blytt was a free speculator, the climatologist and meteorologist mohn put considerable effort into balancing between the objective observer and the creative craftsman. 1 the historicity and epistemological roles of scientific objects is discussed in daston, lorraine (ed.). biographies of scientific objects. chicago and london, 2000. 2 for a biography of axel blytt, see: nordhagen, rolf. “axel blytt. en norsk og internasjonal forskerprofil”. blyttia 1/1943, vol. 1: 21-55. 3 for a biography of henrik mohn, see: engelbrethsen, per. “professor mohn og det norske meteorologiske institut”. naturen 4, 1895: 97-104. 4 anderson, katherine. predicting the weather. victorians and the science of meteorology. chicago, 2005: introduction. mailto:gunnar.ellingsen@uib.no history of meteorology 7 (2015) 40 i will start with presenting and discussing blytt and his studies of the flora and the climates in the past that formed it. moving over to mohn, i will present his climatology and how his type of knowledge about the atmosphere shaped his ideas of climate. in the end i will discuss how these two sets of scientific knowledge about climate both were formed by emerging international scientific disciplines, by aspirations of a yet unsovereign nation, and by the little community at a small university. i will argue that both blytt and mohn negotiated between different disciplinary objectivities, or different consensuses regarding what constituted truth, in their research. 5 the botanical climate as the son of the university professor of botany and director of the botanical garden mathias numsen blytt (1789-1862), axel blytt took over his father’s work on a three-volume norwegian flora in 1862. 6 he received a scholarship from the university in christiania in 1873 and a professorship of botany in 1880. the second and third volumes of the flora were published in 1874 and 1876. in the latter year, he also published essay on the immigration of the norwegian flora during alternating rainy and dry periods, which presented his theory of the origin and history of the norwegian flora. 7 while norges flora was a descriptive work with purely textual descriptions and no theories or hypotheses, the essay was a discussion rather than a description. in the essay, blytt argued that two parameters in the natural condition of norway were decisive for the distribution of plants: the humidity of the climate, and the hardness of the bedrock (substratum) on the spot. these two parameters decided which types of plants would be able to grow on a certain place, blytt argued. “the hard substratum has a uniform flora poor in species (…), on looser substrata the covering of vegetation is more dispersed, the number of individuals is less, but that of the species is greater…”. 8 further, some plants thrived in a wet climate, others in a dry. some plants were “general”, meaning that they thrived in either of the conditions. blytt made the basic assumption that the plants in norway had immigrated as the ice pulled back and that they had been distributed according to their preferences for wet or dry climate and hard or loose bedrock. 9 blytt did not see temperature as decisive in itself. 10 to explain how the climate affected the distribution of the norwegian flora, blytt used a simple climate model with three main agents: the ocean, the mountains and the wind. 11 the ocean produced moist air, which was blown into norway by the prevailing south-westerly winds. the mountains were an obstacle to these winds, and provided shelter from them on 5 porter, theodore m. trust in numbers. the pursuit of objectivity in science and public life. princeton, 1995: introduction. 6 blytt, mathias numsen. norges flora eller beskrivelse over de i norge vildtvoxende karplanter tilligemed angivelser af de geographiske forholde under hvilke de forekomme. christiania, 1861. 7 this text was first published in norwegian as an article under the title “forsøg til en theori om indvandringen af norges flora under vexlende regnfulde og tørre tider” in the norwegian journal nyt magazin for naturvidenskaberne in 1876. the english title refers to the book that was published in christiania in the same year as a response to the great attention that the article and its theory had received. in the following, i will refer to the english version. 8 blytt 1876: 26. 9 blytt’s studies of plant distribution was inspired by edward forbes, who had described types of distribution of flora and fauna in 1846. nordhagen 1943: 26. 10 blytt 1876: 19-20. 11 blytt 1876: 15ff. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 41 their north-eastern side. 12 plants close to the ocean, or in a place inland where these winds blew, were called insular. plants that were far inland or behind mountains, protected from the moist air, were called continental plants. in this way, blytt made his own climaticgeographical classification system based on a simple climate model and a theory of plant immigration. one observation that sat uneasy with the assumption of immigration was that the distribution of some alpine plants had large gaps that did not fit into the picture. for instance, some plants were found only in single spots in norway and then on other continents. 13 despite a long discussion of how norwegian plants were transported, he could not explain the patchwork pattern in this distribution. he concluded that this was not a result of the agency of the plants themselves, but of the agency of long-term changes in their living conditions. of his two parameters, hardness of the soil and humidity of the climate, the latter was clearly the most likely to have changed since the ice age. blytt therefore had to superimpose time on his classification system, which is how he ended up in a discussion on the history of the norwegian climate. to find out more about this history, blytt followed the recommendation of the scottish geologist james geikie to excavate peat bogs. 14 containing different layers of plants and other material from different periods, peat bogs were seen as archives of natural history. using his categorization of plants as a tool, blytt established a chronology of climate types since the ice age. he found that the same type of plants dominated different layers, indicating repeated periods of similar climate. not all peat bogs could be assumed to contain material from the whole postglacial period. since the norwegian land mass had risen continually after the withdrawal of the ice, only peat bogs at altitudes more than 600 feet above the present sea level would contain the oldest bottom layers. blytt saw this as essential for their interpretation. it not only informed the chronology of the immigration of plants, it also removed incompatibilities between his own results and those from similar investigations of peat bogs in denmark, where blytt argued that no land rise had occurred. 15 blytt’s conclusion was that the climate in norway had gone through several wet and dry periods since the ice age. he tried to connect this theory to natural phenomena that were subject to astronomical laws. the theories of james croll, which blytt had mentioned only briefly at the end of his essay, turned out to be a useful way to structure the history of the norwegian flora and climate. 16 croll’s theories, presented in the book climate and time in 1875, highlighted the earth’s position in relation to the sun as the key to understanding many large-scale processes in nature. 17 the sun was the source of heat on earth, and wind patterns in the atmosphere and 12 in the 1960s, climatologists theodor hesselberg and bernt andreas birkeland calculated the effect of the mountain ranges in southern norway on precipitation and wind based on large data sets of meteorological observations. see vollset’s paper in this issue. 13 blytt 1876: 22-23. 14 axel blytt’s draft of testimonial of james geikie, 19.12.1881. national library of norway, collection of letters 66. on geikie see also: hamlin, christopher. “james geikie, james croll, and the eventful ice age”. annals of science 39/6 (1982): 565-583. 15 blytt 1876. 16 blytt 1876: 87-88. james geikie was perhaps the one who introduced croll’s ideas to blytt. on geikie and his influence from croll, see: hamlin 1982. 17 croll, james. climate and time in their geological relations. a theory of secular changes of the earth’s climate. 1875. on croll see also: fleming, james r. “james croll in context: the encounter between climate dynamics and geology in the second half of the nineteenth century”. history of meteorology 3 (2006): 43-54. fleming describes croll’s ideas between cosmic and terrestrial physics and geology, placing him in a position between emerging disciplines. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 42 current patterns in the ocean were among the most important factors deciding how this heat was distributed on its surface. croll’s argument was that the earth’s elliptic path around the sun, as well as the inclination of its rotational axis, went through regular variations with vast consequences for the quantity and distribution of heat – that is, for climate on earth. through a long chain of causes and effects these variations explained the phenomenon of ice ages. hence, according to croll, ice ages could be astronomically calculated – both those of the past and those of the future. croll’s theories provided blytt with a connection between the history of the norwegian flora, climate and astronomical laws. in a number of publications in the following decades, blytt expanded his grand theory on the history of the norwegian flora and climate and worked croll’s ideas into it. 18 seeking communities from other disciplines the style of writing in the essay and in later papers from blytt’s hand embraced ideals from geology rather than from botany. in 1882 the geologist amund helland described norway as “the country of geological discussion”, referring to the legacy of the grand old man of norwegian geology, theodor kierulf. 19 kierulf was a friend of the blytt family and had had a significant influence on the young axel blytt. 20 at the end of his career, blytt threw himself into the core of geological debate and advocated revisions in the established periodization. 21 in his correspondence with blytt, james geikie especially valued the “suggestive” character in the publications. 22 charles darwin also wrote to geikie about axel blytt, and praised the deed of being “a good theoriser”. 23 to geologists, being suggestive and theorising were important epistemic virtues. this was not necessarily the case among botanists. the problem was not blytt’s theory in itself, but the method by which it had been produced. in several letters to blytt, the botanist johan emanuel zetterstedt called for caution when making hypotheses. geology was young, he wrote, and consisted more or less of “guesses”. however, proving was better than guessing: “hypotheses give life to questions, they turn out not to be true, and science 18 on the upheaval of the norwegian land mass, see: blytt, axel. “om vexellagring og dens mulige betydning for tidsregningen i geologien og læren om arternes forandringer”. christiania videnskabsselskabs forhandlinger no. 9 1883. published in german as “ueber wechsellagrung und deren mutmaasliche bedeutung für die zeitrechnung der geologie und für die lehre von der veränderung der arten” in biologisches centralblatt iii no. 14-15: 418-434 et 449-461. erlangen, 1883. on the history of ocean currents and on the distribution of land and ocean in the northern hemisphere through times, see: blytt, axel. “om den sandsynlige årsag til den periodiske ændring af havstrømmenes styrke”. archiv for mathematik og naturvidenskab vol. 9, 1884. published in german as “ueber die wahrscheinliche ursache der periodischen veränderungen in der stärke der meeresströmungen” in biologisches centralblatt iv no. 2: 33-48. erlangen 1884. on the history of the earth and its crust and previous changes in its spherical form, see: blytt, axel. “om den sandsynlige årsag til strandliniernes forskyvning. et forsøg på en geologisk tidsregning”. nyt magazin for naturvidenskaberne xxxi, vol. 11, 1886. published in english as “the probable cause of the displacement of beach-lines. an attempt to compute geological epochs”. christiania videnskabs-selskabs forhandlinger no. 1, 1889. on geological periodization see: blytt, axel. “til forsvar for mit forsøg på en geologisk tidsregning”. arkiv for mathematik og naturvidenskab 14 b (1890): 197-219. 19 “…den geologiske diskussions land”. “by thoroughly discussing problems, misunderstandings are often removed, and new light is thrown over the matter”. kierulf quoted by helland, amund. forsøg paa en geologisk diskussion. 1882: 1-2. (my translation). 20 axel attended kjerulf’s lectures as a student. nordhagen argues that kierulf’s theories about the ice age had a profound influence on the natural sciences in norway in the 1860s. nordhagen 1943: 10. 21 blytt 1890. 22 letters from james geikie to axel blytt 18.07.1881, 18.12.1881, and 27.12.1888. national library of norway, special collections, letter collection no. 66. 23 letter from charles darwin to james geikie 16.11.1876. darwin, francis (ed.). the life and letters of charles darwin vol iii, 1889: 244. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 43 advances threefold”. 24 even though hypotheses were necessary, in zetterstedt’s opinion, they were something scientists turned to only when they were desperate. 25 since geology was a science without disciplinary borders, and without a fully developed method, zetterstedt recommended sticking to undisputable facts, rather than producing grand theories based on speculation. immigration theories and the nation as deborah coen has shown, climatology could serve to unify an empire. 26 in the 1880s, climatologists participated in consolidating the austrian-hungarian empire in by describing natural regions that matched with political boundaries. blytt’s historicism could be interpreted as having similar political overtones when seen in the light of contemporary theories about the history of the norwegian land and people. in 1873, three years before blytt’s essay, the norwegian historian johan ernst sars (1835-1917) published the first volume of his history of norway, in which he presented norwegian history as a dialectic process from golden age to crisis and then to the “synthesis” of sars’ own time. this dialectic history was governed by natural laws, dictated by natural surroundings and taking place through “organic” change. norwegian farmers represented the continuity of this history, as bearers of the norwegian identity. 27 the similarities between blytt’s theory of the origin of the norwegian flora and sars’ history of the norwegian people are striking. first, as sars, blytt had a holistic view in which the scientific object was reduced to a singular long history. second, the dialectic process in sars’ history was reflected in blytt’s alternations between rainy and dry periods. finally, the development from origin to the present was embedded in natural conditions governed by laws. 28 also other elements in norwegian historical theory had similarities with blytts’s theory. theories of immigration were well-established in scandinavian historical writing at the time, most famously the theories of historians peder a. munch (1810-1863) and rudolf keyser (1803-1864) in the 1840s and 1850s. 29 keyser and munch, like blytt and mohn professors at the university in christiania, argued that norwegians had immigrated from the north. this gave the norwegian people an origin distinguishable from those of the swedes and the danes, and a position among the oldest peoples in europe. this was significant in a nation where there was a strong and growing wish for ending the union with sweden which had begun in 1814, on the back of a a 400 year period under danish rule. by bringing an 24 letter from johan e. zetterstedt to axel blytt 21.10.1877. national library of norway, special collections, letter collection no. 66. 25 letter from johan e. zetterstedt to axel blytt 02.01.1877. ibid. 26 coen, deborah. “climate and circulation in imperial austria”. the journal of modern history 82, 2010; coen, deborah. “imperial climatographies from tyrol to turkestan”. osiris 26/1, 2011. 27 sars, johan ernst. udsikt over den norske historie. 4 volumes. 1874-1894. see also: melve, leidulf. historie. historieskriving frå antikken til i dag. oslo 2010: 151-154; andresen, astri, sissel rosland et al. å gripe fortida. innføring i historisk forståing og metode. oslo 2012: 183-186. with the first volume of his udsigt, sars positioned himself as the leading norwegian historian. it also led to considerable debate at the university and in parliament around the proposal of an extraordinary professorship for him at the university in 1874. kyllingstad, jon and tor arne rørvik. “vitenskapenes universitet” in collett, john p. (ed.). universitetet i oslos historie, vol. 2, 2011: 97-100, 362-366. 28 naomi oreskes compares how today’s geologists and historians understand the past. oreskes, naomi. “why i am a presentist”. science in context 26/4 2013: 595-609. 29 keyser, rudolf. “om nordmændernes herkomst og folkeslægtskab”. samlinger til det norske folks sprog og historie, vol. 6, 1839: 259-462; munch, peder andreas. det norske folks historie. 8 volumes. 1853-1863. for more about the works of keyser and munch in historiographical context, see: dahl, ottar. norsk historieforskning i det 19. og 20. århundre. 1970 (1990). history of meteorology 7 (2015) 44 immigration theory into botany, blytt had given the norwegian flora a set of political connotations. henrik mohn, climate, and how the atmosphere worked meteorologist henrik mohn also saw the norwegian climate as a distinguishable entity. climatology was what had earned his meteorological institute a place within the university in christiania. “climatology is the statistics of the meteorological elements”, mohn wrote in his 1872 textbook om vind og vejr. 30 mohn’s strategy for producing knowledge about the atmosphere was two-fold. first, it was about quantification, in line with other studies of nature and society at the time. 31 second, it was about analysing the observations and formulating what he called “laws” (lover), a process in which personal judgement, experience and skill had a significant part. the “laws” were more like rules of thumb, characterized by exceptions as they had been for centuries. 32 to mohn, producing weather forecasts was a craft based on scientific observations. mohn saw climate as the property of place. to describe the climatic conditions of the whole globe or even a single country was a matter of making maps based on an immense amount of observations. however, “to fully understand the climatic conditions would require knowledge about the movements in the atmosphere and their attributed phenomena in detail”. 33 mohn’s study of the mechanisms of the atmosphere reflected his dual ambitions of both being able to predict storms and eventually weather, and to understand climate. one of the results of these studies was a model of atmospheric movement that he called “hvirvel” – whirl. 34 the whirl described large air masses rotating counter-clockwise around barometric minima, and there would be a number of whirls in the atmosphere at any time, mohn explained. they would move not only by rotation, but also linearly, following certain paths. in a whirl there would be winds of all directions, but those in its southern half would usually be the strongest. the storms that mohn and his staff tried to warn the norwegian population about in the late 1860s and early 1870s were most often the southern half of a whirl passing over some part of norway. the paths they followed were essential for estimating the damage or potential danger that the winds would represent for norwegian fishermen and seafarers. whirls were the mechanism of the weather, and the machinery of the climate. the whirl model was a mathematical and physical construction developed as a tool for thinking theoretically about motion in gases, and thus objects that physicists could discuss. processes in whirls could be described by equations and calculated, most often by people who took no interest in weather forecasting specifically. by identifying whirls on daily weather maps, mohn introduced a theoretical scientific object into the craft of weather forecasting. in the foreword to his textbook om vind og vejr, mohn explained that he had been constantly concerned with maintaining “a sharp distinction between the field of secure 30 mohn, henrik. om vind og vejr. christiania 1872. the book was translated into seven languages: german, french, italian, spanish, polish, russian, and finnish. 31 porter, theodore. the rise of statistical thinking 1820-1900. 1986; lie, e. and h. roll-hansen. faktisk talt. statistikkens historie i norge. oslo 2001. 32 daston, lorraine. “unruly weather: natural law confronts natural variability” in daston, lorraine and stolleis, michael (eds). natural law and the laws of nature in early modern europe: jurisprudence, theology, moral and natural philosophy. 2008: 233-248. 33 mohn 1872: 280-281. (my italics). 34 his whirl model was most thoroughly presented in two publications on storms: mohn, henrik. stormenes love, christiania 1868 and mohn, henrik. det norske meteorologiske instituts storm-atlas. christiania 1870. the storm-atlas was published with norwegian and french parallel texts. on mohn’s whirl model, see also: kutzbach, gisela. the thermal theory of cyclones. a history of meteorological thought in the nineteenth century. american meteorological society, historical monograph series. 1979: 76-84. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 45 conclusions and the field of guesses”. even though this had given the book a somewhat fragmented character, he continued, “...both the reader and science would benefit from a clear distinction between what is known and what is not known”. 35 numbers representing measured observations were known. what they could tell about future weather, however, was not known. as a meteorologist and weather forecaster, henrik mohn operated in the zone between “secure” knowledge and educated guesses. the events around the british meteorologist robert fitzroy, including the questioning of his scientific authority and the resulting discontinuation of weather forecasting after his death, clearly demonstrated the tension that could be displayed in this zone. 36 hence, the thick volumes of climatological records in the annual meteorologisk årbog series from 1866 onwards, were what mohn considered secure knowledge. 37 originally, this activity was the part of meteorology that was regarded as scientific, and what made meteorology deserve its place at the university. from the climatological records, one could calculate whatever average was needed: averages of a period (monthly, annual), of a geographical entity (cities, counties, regions, or the whole country) or of both. like the flora to blytt, climatological records were collections of facts which could serve the theorizer. in 1868 mohn presented the following law: the center of a whirl, that is, the barometric minimum, has an oval shape oriented in the direction that the whole whirl is moving. 38 while some laws of whils and storms were universal, some depended on place. for instance, whirls were not a priori the same in europe as in america. in his textbook from 1872, mohn pointed out that the laws governing the weather in america had been found to be “quite the same” as those in europe. 39 mohn clearly saw his laws as something non-absolute, dependent of place, and not fully “secure knowledge”. choosing between “knowing” and “guessing” with time, the whirl model became a factor in the larger equation defining whether and how the institute’s resources should be spent on storm warnings. after a few optimistic years, in 1872 mohn argued that the storm warnings were not sufficiently useful. the problem was not that the warnings were wrong, but that many storms came without any warning. fishermen and sailors could trust the storm warnings, but they could not trust their absence. 40 in mohn’s opinion, there were two ways to improve this. one was to follow the quantification strategy through increasing the number of observations and improving the means of dissemination: establishing more stations along the coast, and a storm warning center positioned among the stations on the western coast of norway. the other way, which was the one he recommended, was to devote more time and resources to the scientific study of 35 mohn 1872: iv. (my translation). 36 anderson 2005: ch 3. mohn received the report from the committee headed by francis galton that stated that fitzroy’s forecasts were unscientific. the report was sent to the institute, and is now in the dnmi library store, forskningsparken, oslo. 37 mohn, henrik (ed.). norsk meteorologisk aarbog, det norske meteorologiske institut. 1868. published in norwegian, german and french. 38 mohn 1868: 18. according to gisela kutzbach, meteorologists were not eager to communicate theories in the 1860s and 1870, due to a lack of estimation for theories about the atmosphere among physicists. buchan did not allow himself to call his ideas theories, because theories should be firmly anchored in facts. referring to f. rosenberger. die geschichte der physik, vol 2. 1884: 327, kutzbach describes this as an attitude which was spreading among meteorologists in this period. kutzbach 1979: 75. 39 mohn 1872: 233-234. 40 for more on the history of weather reports and its significance to the norwegian fisheries and population along the coast, see: fulsås, narve. havet, døden og véret. kulturell modernisering i kyst-noreg 1850-1950. 2003. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 46 whirls, and less to observation. 41 this strategy of analysis relied considerably on his personal accumulated experience. mohn’s danish colleague, the director of the danish meteorological institute niels hoffmeyer, strongly advocated for forecasting based on personal skill. in hoffmeyer’s opinion, weather forecasting relied on individual experience from drawing isobars on maps. hoffmeyer pointed to himself as the best example: “it would be quite unnatural of me to say that i believe someone else could draw better curves than myself, because there is hardly any meteorologist who has as long experience within this sport as i”. 42 weather forecasting was simply “unscientific”: “…we must not hide our ignorance, but simply confess it”, he argued. 43 the danish meteorological institute had been established separately from the university of copenhagen precisely because its tasks were regarded to be more “practical” than “scientific”. 44 concluding remarks – shorelines representing separate disciplines whose contours were only emerging, blytt and mohn applied different “objectivities”. 45 to use theodore m. porters concept, blytt acquired disciplinary objectivity – a consensus within a discipline of what was or made truth – from geology. 46 he applied an analytic approach to the origin of what constituted a new scientific object: the norwegian flora as a whole. his interest in origins made time just as essential as order. the essay represented a shift not only of scientific object, but also of method and of epistemic virtue, from the traditional botanical truth-to-nature that focused on categories, to a holistic approach to the history of the flora of a nation. 47 it was a historicizing turn which produced the first history of the norwegian climate. this deep-time perspective was unfamiliar in traditional botany, but was about to become a standard perspective in geology. mohn, on the other hand, swore to the authority that fact-producing instruments could give him, and that lay in expressing facts in numbers. climate could be studied as sets of measurements of weather in certain places. 48 the disciplinary objectivity of climatology lay in the numbers and the methods for producing them. contrary to contemporary climate studies based on archival records, mohn showed little interest in the climate of the past. however, in his laws of whirls we see negotiations of the disciplinary objectivity of meteorology. for instance, while heinrich dove’s classical winddrehungsgesetz was considered old-fashioned by most meteorologists of the 1870s, mohn did his best to implement it in his model. the winddrehungsgesetz was a rule of meteorology through which one could use single-point observations to predict changes in wind direction at that point. 49 the rule was considered to be imprecise and to be applicable only in certain conditions and only in certain parts of the world, limitations that also characterized mohns own rules. mohn presented his new whirl 41 the norwegian meteorological institute. annual report. 1872. 42 letter from niels hoffmeyer to henrik mohn, 17.02.1876. national archive of norway, archive of the meteorological institute. correspondence 1876. ra/s-1570/d/dc/l0003/0002. 43 letter from niels hoffmeyer to henrik mohn, 17.12.1875. ra/s-1570/d/dc/l0003/0001. 44 meteorologisk institut gennem hundrede aar. 1872-1972. det danske meteorologiske institut. copenhagen, 1972: 20-24. 45 the emergence of climatology between disciplines is also discussed in philipp n. lehmann’s paper in this issue. 46 porter 1995: introduction. 47 lorraine daston and peter galison points to botany as a discipline in which the epistemological virtue “truthto-nature” existed as an ideal up to the late 19 th century. daston, lorraine and peter galison. objectivity. 2007: 197. 48 mohn, henrik. oversikt over norges klimatologi. 1870; mohn, henrik. norges vindog stormstatistik. 1870. 49 dove, heinrich wilhelm. meteorologische untersuchungen. berlin 1837. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 47 and the rules that governed it as the surroundings of the single point of observation from which dove described a wind shift. 50 in this way, mohn’s ideas of atmospheric movement, fundamentally different from dove’s, were presented as a continuation, not a rejection, of older ideas. what were the similarities between blytt’s and mohn’s climate studies? prediction, whether of the future or of the past, was an important part of their scientific work. 51 this brought both of them to the borders of “secure knowledge”. both worked within the frames of a national scientific enterprise where the flora, the weather, the climate, and history had distinct norwegian identities. 52 although they were internationally oriented scientists, blytt studied the norwegian flora and mohn the norwegian weather. they were also colleagues at an institution which had only a handful of scientific staff in this period, whose humanistic “culture of unity” had long been threatened by a growing gap between natural and human sciences. 53 defenders of this culture considered darwinism, positivism, and the growing belief in the significance of measuring as threats to the university as a scientific institution. in their eyes, producing knowledge was inseparable from producing meaning. 54 both blytt’s darwinism-inspired focus on the past and mohn’s insistence on numerical facts can be interpreted as parts of this new threat to the university. the only object of study that mohn and blytt shared was shorelines. 55 shorelines are linear marks in the bedrock along the norwegian coast in different heights above the present sea level. they were believed to be traces of previous sea levels, thus demonstrating the different stages in the rise of the norwegian land mass. both blytt and mohn wrote an article on this phenomenon, with radically different approaches. blytt’s article om den sandsynlige aarsag til strandliniernes forskyvning (“probable causes of the displacement of beach lines”) was a long discussion where his own hypothesis was connected to a wide range of existing theories, starting with immanuel kant from 1754. his own hypothesis was focused on the origin of mountain ranges in the northern hemisphere. blytt was aware of his very hypothetical approach, and asked for “patience for the many deficiencies and imperfections connected to such an attempt”. he hoped “that the hypothesis at least will be found worthy of a closer examination”. 56 mohn’s article on shorelines was the result of a documentary project in which he presented his observations, measurements, drawings and statistical analysis of shorelines between bergen and vardø. of 53 pages in his article bidrag til kundskaben om gamle strandlinier i norge (“contributions to the knowledge about old beach-lines in norway”), only the last four were devoted to a discussion of the possible origin of the shorelines. “to theorise on the creation of shorelines,” mohn concluded, “the present material and knowledge 50 mohn. storm-atlas. 1870: 23. on mohn’s alignment with dove’s theory, see kutzbach 1979: 78-79. on the status of dove’s theory among meteorologists, see kutzbach 1979: 88-93. 51 on the concept of prediction of the past, see anderson 2005 and stanley, mathew. “predicting the past: ancient eclipses and airy, newcombe and huxley on the authority of science”. isis 103/2 2012: 254-277. 52 deborah coen discusses climate studies as a part of political and cultural projects in austria-hungary in the 1880s in coen 2010 and coen 2011. 53 while blytt occasionally refers to mohn’s work in his publications, i have not seen any references to blytt by mohn. i have not found any correspondence between them in the personal collection of letters after blytt (national library in oslo) or in mohn’s correspondence in the archive of the norwegian meteorological institute (national archives in oslo). on the threat against the “culture of unity”, see: kyllingstad and rørvik 2011 and phillips, denise. acolytes of nature. defining natural science in germany 1770-1850. chicago 2012. 54 among the fiercest defenders of this culture of unity were the philosophy professor marcus monrad (18161897) and professor of medicine ferdinand lochmann (1820-1891). kyllingstad and rørvik 2011: 27-41. 55 blytt 1886. in the english version of his article, axel blytt used the term “beach lines”. mohn, henrik. “bidrag til kundskaben om gamle strandlinier i norge”. særtryk af nyt magazin for naturvidenskaberne. christiania 1876. 56 blytt 1888: 240. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 48 about their nature and topographical conditions is still far too poor”. 57 axel blytt disagreed, and this contrast between him and mohn illustrates the difference between their approaches to climate as well. the botanist practicing geology was free to speculate, while the meteorologist could rely only on direct observations. acknowledgements the topic of this paper was presented and discussed twice in bergen in november 2014, both in the research group “health, welfare and history of science” at the department of archaeology, history, culture and religious studies at the university of bergen and at the international workshop “climate in meteorology, meteorology in climate studies”. it was also presented at the 6 th norwegian conference on the history of science in oslo in february 2015. i have received useful comments from three reviewers, and from magnus vollset, svein atle skålevåg, yngve nilsen and james r. fleming. i wish to thank the contributors for valuable input. 57 mohn. strandlinier. 1876: 53. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 222 in the year 2017 – a soviet fantasy of the future james r. fleming jfleming@colby.edu colby college presented on october 11, 2017 at the climate engineering 2017 meeting, berlin, germany “in the year 2017,” the filmstrip you are about to view, was created in the soviet union in 1960 by v. strukova and v. shevchenko, illustrated by l. smekhov, and produced by the diafilm studio. it is presented here for the first time in its entirety, with complete english subtitles. my colleague elena elena monastireva-ansdell provided translations of several of the slides; she recalls viewing instructional and entertaining filmstrips in her youth. the illustrations and captions tell the story of a nation fully in control of its environment at the centennial of its great revolution. this did not happen. the soviet union collapsed in 1990 and the environment suffered greatly under communism. several books, discussed in greater detail in fixing the sky (columbia university press, 2010), provide background for the film. in soviet electric power (1956), arkadii borisovich markin outlined the progress of electrification in the soviet union and provided a forecast to the year 2000, when, he supposed, electrical power output would be one hundred times greater than at present. markin gave special emphasis to the future role of nuclear power, including using nuclear explosions for geoengineering purposes: gigantic atom explosions in the depths of the earth will give rise to volcanic activity. new islands and colossal dams will be built and new mountain chains will appear. atom explosions will cut new canyons through mountain ranges and will speedily create canals, reservoirs, and sea, carry[ing] out huge excavation jobs. at the same time we are convinced that science will find a method of protection against the radiation of radioactive substances. mailto:jfleming@colby.edu history of meteorology 8 (2017) 223 markin predicted that soviet power engineers using nuclear explosives for peaceful construction purposes would achieve “magnificent results” when inspired by the “omnipotence of human genius.” in 1957 soviet academician petr mikhailovich borisov, alluding to the centuries-old quest of the russian people to overcome the northland cold, proposed building a dam across the bering strait to melt the arctic sea ice. in his book can man change the climate? borisov detailed his vision of a dam 50 miles long and almost 200 feet high with shipping locks and pumping stations. he proposed that the dam be built in 820-foot sections made of prefabricated freeze-resistance ferroconcrete that could be floated to the construction site and anchored to the sea bottom with pilings. he further suggested that the top of the dam be shaped so that ice floes would ride up over the dam and break off on the southern side. an alternative design included an intercontinental highway and railroad. according to borisov, “what mankind needs is war against cold, rather than a ‘cold war.’” to liquidate arctic sea ice, borisov wanted to pump cold seawater out of the arctic ocean, across the dam, and into the bering sea and the north pacific. this displacement would allow the inflow of warmer water from the north atlantic, eliminate fresh water in the surface layer in several years, and thus prevent the formation of ice in the arctic basin, creating warmer climate conditions: in this day and age, with mankind’s expanding powers of transforming the natural environment, the project we are advancing does not present any technical difficulties. the pumping of the warm atlantic water across into the pacific ocean will take the arctic ocean out of its present state of a dead-end basin for the atlantic water [and] drive the arctic surface water out into the pacific ocean through the bering strait. his goal was to remove a 200-foot layer of cold surface water, which would be replaced by warmer, saltier water that would not freeze. inspired by markin’s popular book soviet electric power, borisov also assumed that huge amounts of electricity would soon be available to run the pumps, perhaps from hydroelectric generators or nuclear reactors. the dam was, of course, never built, but if it had been attempted, would the nations of the world have confronted the russians? in man versus climate (1960), nikolai petrovich rusin and liya abramovna flit surveyed a large number of schemes for climatic tinkering. invoking a jules verne–style fantasy, the book’s cover is illustrated by the earth surrounded by a saturn-like ring of dust particles intended to illuminate the arctic circle, increase solar energy absorption, and ultimately melt the polar ice caps. chapters in the book are dedicated to mega-engineering projects such as damming the congo river to electrify africa and irrigate the sahara, diverting the gulf stream with a causeway off newfoundland or harnessing it with turbines installed between florida and cuba. soviet engineers dreamed of creating a massive new “siberian sea” east of the ural mountains by damming the ob, yenisei, and angara rivers, for irrigation of crops and climate modulation. the authors argued that deeper scientific insight into the laws of nature would result in ever more “grandiose” plans for developing immense energy reserves, controlling the flow of rivers, and history of meteorology 8 (2017) 224 subjugating permafrost, to name but a few of the advances that they expected. science was not just about observing and understanding nature; it was about exploiting and controlling it as well. they cited the program of the communist party of the soviet union on this: “the progress of science and technology under the conditions of the socialist system of economy is making it possible to most effectively utilize the wealth and forces of nature for the interests of the people, make available new forms of energy and create new materials, develop methods for the modification of climatic conditions and master space.” the authors’ ultimate goal was to convince the reader “that man can really be the master of this planet and that the future is in his hands.” and now the filmstrip: in the year 2017 in light of recent discussions of weather and climate control to alleviate drought, redirect hurricanes, and offset global warming, i invite viewers to send in their visions and fantasies of the year 2100. what can we say about the second half of the 21st century? which climate scenario will play out by its end? -james rodger fleming https://archive.org/details/in-the-year-2017.-v.-strukhova-v.-schevchenko.-ills.-l.-smekhov-1960 microsoft word hom6_04_obrien_deliberate_confusions.docx   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)           17                       deliberate confusions chris o’brien charles darwin university, darwin; australian national university, canberra, australia climate’s very complexities have been manna from heaven for climate change deniers. reports of global atmospheric warming, the increasing of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and record after record tumbling on continent after continent have met with a common refrain from the international chorus of deniers – ‘the climate has always changed’. but this is a deliberate confusion. it is myth number one on the skeptical science web site, expressed in the phlegmatic claim ‘the climate has changed before’.1 it is a staple of climate change denial. the issue, however, is not change versus stasis; it relates instead to magnitude, rates of change and tipping points. nevertheless, this spurious assertion has been effective in confusing the issue of anthropogenic global warming, at least in australia. while a clear majority there understand that human activity causes global warming, this confusion has weakened the impetus for change and provided an alibi for business as usual from government and many (though not all) in the corporate and industrial sectors.2 confusion has, for the time being, defused this issue. this is partly because many people know little about the intricacies of climate but know vaguely about climate change on geological time scales. more importantly, as chapter three of mike hulme’s why we disagree about climate change explains, the broader public both understands that disagreement is integral to science yet it does not grasp the robustness of the methods, data quality, and conclusions underlying scientific consensus.3 so, claims by deniers fall into this template of claim and counterclaim, which is widely seen as scientific debate. to some consensus looks more political than scientific. this paper considers another crucial set of factors that has enabled these ideas to make sense in australasia at this historical moment. until recently, the inherent variability of australasia’s climate has been invisible in the formal scientific study of weather and climate. yet such variability is an experiential hallmark of life throughout australasia. one only has to live for several years in any part of australia to experience seasons so different from one year to the next that they impress themselves on people’s memories. usually tied to the drought/flood cycles of the el niño southern oscillation (enso), this variability affects communities, regions and usually leaves visible marks on the economy of the entire commonwealth of australia. this variability creates individual memories; it shapes collective memories and spurs art, literature, and myth.   o’brien,  deliberate  confusions   18           poems such as dorothea mackellar’s my country (1908) and paintings like w.c. piguenit’s flood on the darling 1890 (1895) long resonated with lived experience in a manner that science tried for so long to do but could not. farmers across australia also understood this quirk of the continent’s climates. only in 1969, when jacob bjerknes began to elucidate the interactions between sea and sky across the pacific and australasia, did it become possible to conceive of a rigorous, scientifically valid mechanism to explain what people across australasia experienced. these ideas did not permeate to the broader public until long after the lethal 1982/83 el niño and its monumental droughts and fires in south-eastern australia. both the concepts and the physical dynamics sparked intense interest among australian climatologists, but as australian environmental historian don garden has frankly noted, even he did not grasp the significance of enso until the mid-1990s.4 knowledge about enso has slowly spread to the broader population since then. indeed, garden’s 2009 opus would have illuminated many still grappling with this complex atmospheric and oceanic flux. variability has come back into sight with anthropogenic global warming. studying aspects of the dutch colonial encounter with the atmosphere above indonesia and british efforts at deciphering atmospheric fluxes above northern australia, this paper sketches how variability became invisible. after discussing implications of the ‘rediscovery of variability’ and its ready, deliberate confusing with global warming, i will outline how a thorough understanding of historic variability will help signpost a greater variety of consequences of climate change. far from confusing the issue, variability, at least in australasia, can clarify. seasons and climates of northern australia a startling reality about northern australia is that people in any locale experience common weather, but two climates and two seasonal regimes. in the tens of thousands of years that aboriginal people have lived on, tended to and made home the vast lands of tropical australia, they have developed elaborate concepts of climate and seasons. they link constellations of events on the land, in the skies and, where appropriate, in the waters. these ideas are comprehensive, nuanced and linked to particular places. in indigenous cosmologies north australia has a multitude of climates and seasonal patterns. through extensive field work in the 1980s cultural anthropologist deborah bird rose gleaned that rain is the kernel of yarralin concepts about season and climate. yipu is the generic term for rain among the yarralin people of the victoria river district of australia’s northern territory. living in what western science classifies as a monsoonal climate, about 100 kilometres from the coast, they use a set of words to distinguish phenomena related to common kinds of rain in the region: hot weather rain, cold weather rain, the first rain after extended periods of heat, even the smell of the first rains.5 in indigenous cosmologies seasons are linked to ecological happenings, not the calendar. the yarralin can reliably predict therefore when crocodiles will start to lay eggs, and associated weather, not from the time of year, but from observing the arrival of march flies.6 where rain is at the centre of yarralin notions of season, the gidjingarli, along the middle of australia’s northern coastline, define the seasons according to their dominant winds.7 geographer stephen davis has identified that aboriginal people in far northern australia typically recognise six major seasons each year. but the particular concepts of each season vary from one locale to another. gupapuyngu speakers among the yolngu, live along the coast of north eastern parts of the northern territory in and around   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)           19     milingimbi. they classify their six seasons as: dhuludur, the pre-wet season; barra mirri, the growth season; mayaltha, the flowering season; midawarr, the fruiting season; dharratharramirri, the early dry and birth time of sharks and sting rays; and rarraandharr, the main dry season.8 living across bathurst and melville islands, ranging from 400 to 600 kilometres west of milingimbi, the tiwi experience a very similar climate and also recognise six annual seasons. their seasons however comprise three different seasons of jamutakari, identified by the predominant type of rain of each season; two seasons of yirriwinari, one a part of the dry where cold weather and morning fog frequently recur, the other when large-scale burning is undertaken; and tiyari, when humidity builds and thunderstorms begin.9 perhaps the most accessible account of indigenous australian seasons for northern hemisphere readers appears in ben orlove’s chapter ‘how people name seasons’, in his 2003 collection edited with sarah strauss, weather, climate, culture. two things strike the reader from his account of the six seasons reckoned by speakers of gundjeihmi, in the western part of coastal arnhem land. first, the seasons are not of equal duration. second, seasons are a recurrence of particular sequences in which constellations of certain kinds of weather and related ecological phenomena occur.10 this account, however, evinces a widespread problem in western discussion of indigenous seasons and the calendars they relate to. each of the seasons is drawn as coming at the same time each year, going at the same time each year and so always being of the same duration. yet indigenous concepts of season allow for differing times of arrival and departure, some also include periods of transition between seasons. in their critique of western-produced indigenous seasonal calendars, linguists robert hoogenraad and george jampijinpa robinson observed that these calendars of aboriginal knowledge typically, and erroneously, used the european month as an organising framework. these charts therefore risk forcing one system of knowledge into the parameters of another system – in this case traditional aboriginal knowledge into european conceptualisations of time, season, and climate.11 that this has happened so commonly attests to the ontological force of western notions of season and weather linked to precise calendrical time and in particular, the calendar month.12 when the british invaded north australia in the nineteenth century, they imported their clockwork climate. simply put, this is an understanding linked to calendrical time and bound up in millennia-old western european ideas of nature as regular and orderly. although there is ever-increasing documentation of the british learning much about the land from aboriginal people,13 there is no evidence of indigenous concepts or knowledge shaping european ideas about weather and climate in australia. even if small groups of newcomers are, in the future, found to have taken on indigenous knowledge, this did not shape broader, authoritative, scientific understandings. across northern australia the parallel epistemologies of indigenous knowledge and the european clockwork-climate have existed in parallel since europe washed up on its shores. this clockwork-climate is the wet/dry dichotomy that typifies tropical regions in western knowledge. darwin-based weather observer par excellence j.a.g. little encapsulated this when he described (many times) the region’s climate as rhythmic such that ‘the changes of these seasons are so uniform that they may be predicted to almost a day’.14 little’s quote not only featured in contemporaneous guides to the northern territory at the turn of the twentieth century, but also by distinguished geographer   o’brien,  deliberate  confusions   20           griffith taylor in his authoritative work of 1918, the australian environment (especially as controlled by rainfall). this idea of a wet/dry seasonal dyad regularly ‘flipping’ in tropical australia has a long pedigree dating to the late seventeenth century and edmund halley in british thinking. this concept was reinforced by william dampier’s discourse on winds, which from 1699 accompanied the widely read narrative of his explorations – a new voyage around the world. outlining the winds of the indian ocean tropics, dampier gives a strong sense of a mechanical regularity when he notes that: all shift in the shifting seasons, which are april and september, at one and the same time and to their opposite points…these shifting winds in the east indies are called monsoons; one is called the east-monsoon, the other the west-monsoon.15 this understanding pervaded eighteenth-and nineteenth-century british sailors’ guides and nautical manuals.16 descriptions of the climate of darwin and its hinterland in almanacs commonly identified the turning from wet to dry as march 31 and the reverse as october 1. during the early decades of the twentieth century, april 30 and november 1 were more frequently identified as the dates the seasons flipped. this may well be an implicit acknowledgement of the region’s temporal variability, yet scientists, officials, and many european newcomers clung to the idea of a timely clockwork-climate, that seasons switched on a particular date. seasons and climates of the maritime continent for the indonesian maritime continent, the difference between indigenous and non-indigenous knowledge is a little less stark. this is not to dispute that there is a wealth of place-based indigenous knowledge across this archipelago of nearly twenty thousand islands. but many indonesian coastal locales traded with each other, as well as arab and chinese mariners long before the portuguese arrived. some 250 language groups have been identified throughout the archipelago; malay was adopted as a lingua franca around 1400. we would be remiss not to allow for exchanges and modifications of knowledge. with this rich history of encounters it is difficult to untangle long held indigenous understandings of people of a particular locale from those influenced by arab, chinese or indeed indigenous seafarers from other parts of the archipelago. certainly, a trove of knowledge greeted the portuguese in the early 1500s. by the time the dutch and, to a much lesser extent, the english came, the dutch already had detailed knowledge of the maritime routes and the weather and climate of the maritime continent. john huyghen van linschoten was an official in portuguese goa for five years in the late sixteenth century. today, he seems somewhat like a late renaissance/early modern edward snowden or bradley manning. early european traders and later, the english and dutch east india companies, meticulously recorded details of ocean and weather conditions during their voyages. to best their competitors they jealously guarded the data they amassed it was secret. this information could only be accessed by those who could use it to the financial betterment of the organisation that had accrued these archives. even by the 1590s, a decade or so before the formation of the english and dutch east india companies, the portuguese had acquired invaluable knowledge about wind and seasonal patterns across the indian ocean and the waters embracing the archipelago we now know as indonesia.   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)           21     over the century since da gama’s voyage, portuguese had learned much about the monsoons on an oceanic scale. before arab pilots guided da gama across the indian ocean, rather than around its shores, european knowledge of the winds and seasons was confined to the indian ocean littoral. the portuguese traded out of malacca (on the west coast of the malay peninsula) from 1511, and ambon and ternate during the following decade. during the 1550s the portuguese presence on timor, just a few hundred kilometres from present day darwin, became decisive. steadily and very quietly, van linschoten copied many of the charts the portuguese had drawn based on decades of voyages. he also took copious notes about the different sailing routes. back in holland he began publishing the four parts of his then famous, if now forgotten, itinerario in 1595. successive dutch editions were published in 1596, 1604, 1614, 1623 and 1644; the first english translation came in 1598, and there were multiple translations into french and latin.17 the secrets were well and truly out. with this knowledge, the dutch bypassed goa and the contingencies of the monsoons; they went to malacca or java instead, taking advantage of more consistent wind regimes. itinerario transmitted portuguese knowledge of indian ocean climate and seasons – along its shores and over its waters. this became dutch and european knowledge. indeed, a fascinating question arises as to just how much this was to influence halley’s thinking. shaped by the needs of maritime travel and trade, itinerario and its content likely provided a framework within which subsequent experience and knowledge has been interpreted – one in which seasons are seen as regular and operating to time. let me cite one example of this knowledge. outlining trade between the mozambique and india, van linschoten remarks: they sayle from thence to india but once every year in the month of august till half september, because that throughout (the whole countries of india) they must sail with the monssoyns, that is with the tides of the year, which they name by the windes, which blow certain months in the yeare, whereby they make their account to goe and come from the one place to the other, and the time that men commonly sayle between mossambique and india is 30 days, little more or less, and then they stay in india till the month of april when the winde or monssoyne commeth again for mossambique.18 this is a climate working to time. at this point, ‘india’ included what we now call indonesia and so the reference to sailing with monssoyns throughout the countries of india might be among the earliest references of this idea of climate for the maritime continent. john splinter stavorinus held the same idea of climate and seasons for the indonesian archipelago on the cusp of the nineteenth century. stavorinus’ characterisation of the seasons there is conceptually identical. given the nearly 200 years’ experience the dutch had accumulated throughout the maritime continent; given the volumes of data and personal accounts that had circulated back to the netherlands, it is not unreasonable to consider that stavorinus reflected prevailing dutch thinking, as well as his own experiences. references to monsoons, good monsoons, bad monsoons, and departures timed for particular monsoons, abound in his 1798 opus voyages to the east indies. british sailors’ guides of the time (capper, horsburg etc.) draw on the same lexicon and evince an identical conceptual repertoire. in a piece that captures both general and local dutch knowledge he states about the southern celebes that:   o’brien,  deliberate  confusions   22           the seasons, known here, as throughout the east, by the denomination of monsoons are the same as at java; the southeast monsoon being called the good and the northwest the bad one, the first always brings (at least in the country west of the mountain range) a clear sky and dry weather; the last is accompanied with violent winds and continual heavy rain; but to the eastward of the ridge, the exact contrary takes place … so that the different seasons of summer and winter are felt, at the same time, at no more than eight dutch miles distant from each other.19 dutch and indeed, european knowledge was extensive. during the eighteenth century intricate interactions between land, sea, and sky came to be understood across vast swathes of indonesia’s seas and coasts. place came to matter. expectation was not based upon latitude, as would be the case for australia for at least a century. we see this in stavorinus’ discussion of amboyna. latitude would decree a climate and seasonal regime identical to that of java. topography, however, has bequeathed monsoons that ‘are exactly contrary here, to what they are along the islands of java, borneo, bali, lombok, sumbawa, the west coast of the celebes’.20 an interesting set of questions for future investigation arises: did the dutch discover this themselves? did this come from the portuguese? did europeans learn this from indigenous mariners of the region? certainly the dutch had experienced the climate long enough to discern these patterns. but this does not preclude knowledge exchange with other mariners across the archipelago. this idea of a climate with two timely annual seasons is very tidy, perhaps a little too tidy. even the locales recognised as different are a mirror of what predominates throughout the region. conceptually though, these understandings of climate are identical – the same framework, the same parameters, the same elements, the same inextricable link to the western calendar. this was not just the dutch, or the british or the portuguese notion of the maritime continent’s climate. this was the european idea of climate and seasons in the tropics. symmetry, opposites, dualities, binaries; all of these suggest deep, potent cultural influences so taken for granted that they scarcely visible. colonial weather watching fortunately, we can test the concept against data. modern, quality controlled meteorological data was routinely gathered at both batavia (jakarta) and darwin from the 1860s. meteorology was a high priority for the colonial invaders of australia. indeed, as richard grove has shown, this was the case throughout india, the caribbean, and the entire ‘colonial periphery’.21 the first observatory in sydney was established by the first of the british colonisers in 1788, just two years after the english east india company established the observatory at madras (chennai). a number of observatories were established and disbanded in sydney and other australian colonies, but by the late 1850s observatories had been permanently established in sydney, melbourne and adelaide. darwin’s observatory began systematic weather watching in march 1869. operating to british practices, with reliable equipment they set about casting a net of observatories, strung together by telegraph wire, across as much of the continent as possible. until federation in 1901, ‘australia’ was a collection of separate british colonies. until australia’s commonwealth bureau of meteorology was established in 1908, each colony (later, state) had its own network of weather and astronomical observatories. this is not to say that standards changed at colonial and state borders and   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)           23     that data from one jurisdiction was incompatible with that from others. during three vital meetings between 1879 and 1888 the heads of australia’s major colonial observatories set down common standards and practices for the observation of weather, the reliable measurement of weather elements, and the organisation and analysis of data. much of this was settled at the first intercolonial meteorological conference in 1879.22 participants also agreed to systematic and regular sharing of weather data. the establishment of international standards for observing and recording weather in 1876 no doubt aided standardisation across the australian continent and ensured that australia’s then fledgling observatories operated to international, scientific standards. from 1863 till 1911 the northern territory was administered by south australia. under the assiduous command of charles todd of adelaide observatory, darwin was linked to both southern australia and java by 1871. todd was both head of the observatory as well the body that created, maintained, and extended its network: post and telegraphs. it was these telegraphic lines between southern australia and java that tied darwin in place. as these networks were being created for local knowledge and the colonial purposes of mastering new lands, interest among european scientists about larger regional, even global tropical dynamics also grew an interest that cut across empires. with the establishment of observatories in australia and on the indian subcontinent no less a man of science than alexander von humboldt had written to the government of netherlands india in 1856 urging the establishment of an observatory at batavia to ‘promote our knowledge of the meteorological phenomena between the tropics’ and its use in conjunction with the meteorological and magnetic observatories of british india and australia.23 records began there in 1864. according to the badan meteorologi, klimatologi dan geofisika (bmkg) – in donesia’s chief agency for the observation and study of weather and climate – batavia’s observatory was not the locus of java’s first systematic weather observations. these began in 1841, when the chief of bogor hospital started his weather observations there.24 by 1878 there were 55 stations recording rain on java, 22 on sumatra, 2 on bangka, 8 on borneo, 4 on celebes, 4 on amboyna, 1 on banda and 1 on ternate.25 as a first grade observatory, batavia recorded rainfall, wind, temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, atmospheric tension, magnetic readings, and lunar observations at every hour of the day. observations were recorded accordingly. in darwin observations were taken and recorded at three hourly intervals. this region was the locus of the one apparent nineteenth-century challenge to the concept of the clockwork climate ticking to the calendar year: the cyclical climate. interest in this partly explains the assiduous interest in regular systematic weather observation throughout australasia and india. so too does an interest in trans-colonial atmospheric dynamics. both are an important aspect of the proliferation of observatories there during the midand late nineteenth century. when swiss astronomer rudolf wolf identified an eleven-year sunspot cycle in 1852, climatic cycles appeared to have gained an explanatory mechanism. at the same time, william stanley jevons recognised and wrote explicitly of australia’s many variable climates.26 by the 1870s numerous british scientists proposed links between sunspot cycles, the frequency of indian ocean tropical cyclones, the scale and intensity of the indian summer monsoon, and cycles of drought and flood. by then jevons was arguing that sunspot activity not only shaped indian and chinese agriculture, but also powered the global business cycle.27 according to his   o’brien,  deliberate  confusions   24           logic, sunspots not only drove cycles of drought, famine, and flood – they also accounted for fluctuations in the global economy. in australia, colonial meteorologists such as charles egeson and h.c. russell recognised climate variability and proposed various astronomically-driven weather cycles.28 on reflection, this was more a modification of the idea of the clockwork climate than a direct challenge to it. the cycles they proposed were exact. although these concepts of cycle undermined the understanding of weather repeating very similar patterns, year after year, the cycles, conceptually, still posited a distinct regularity the weather and climate. they were orderly. they allowed for prediction. they ultimately even allowed for the distant possibility of control. decades earlier, weather watchers had actually observed synchronicity in weather cycles across different parts of the globe. richard grove has shown that by the 1810s, awareness had developed of simultaneous drought in india, the caribbean, and the then embryonic colony of sydney in 1791.29 curiosity about a possible mechanism emerged. following the 1877-79 drought in india, the director of the newly established indian meteorological office (imo), henry blanford became interested in the possibility of simultaneous, anomalous weather elsewhere. charles todd was among the meteorologists who responded to blandford’s request for weather data, especially barometric pressure observations. again drought in india and drought in australia had happened at the same time. as mike davis demonstrated in late victorian holocausts, this drought was far more widespread and global drought happened again in the late 1880s and between 1896 and 1903.30 todd and his colleagues in nsw and victoria – h.c. russell and r.j. ellery – had had concluded by 1888 that there is a climatic teleconnection between australia and india, at least in respect to atmospheric pressure and cycles of drought and flood. such thinking was not merely the province of science. it found a much wider audience in a very detailed and lucid discussion in the australian press. often referred to, an 1888 article in the australasian with todd, russell and ellery is most revealing. this was a detailed delineation of their understanding of drought cycles and synchronicity with other parts of the world. here, australia’s top three weathermen endeavoured to explain australia’s climate, its variability, and relationship to the broader region. moreover, they were doing so to the broader public. written during the drought of the late 1880s, all three men explained australian drought in terms of larger, more regional, even global dynamics. although ellery did not discuss india, a section of his contribution dealt with ‘drought cycles’.31 under this very heading he dismissed the idea that droughts had an identifiable periodicity, but conceded a relationship between the earth's atmosphere and sunspot activity, which is cyclical. ellery also averred that ‘heat at the equatorial regions’ influenced atmospheric fluxes above australia.32 russell likewise linked droughts in australia to the failure of the monsoon over northern australia.33 later he spoke of how the development of ‘the meteorological system of australasia’ will help elucidate questions about drought in australia.34 like henry blanford in india, russell concludes that the relationship between ‘a continuous high barometer’ and ‘very little rain’ is strong in australia.35 although he avowedly disputes links between drought and wolf’s 11-year sunspot cycle, russell reiterates his own proposal of a 19-year climate cycle in australia, first circulated in 1876. accordingly, he implicitly acknowledges australia’s climate as inherently variable.   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)           25     todd likewise discusses the periodicity of droughts.36 he, however, draws no firm conclusions. his contribution is distinguished by the attention he gives to the synchronicity of droughts in australia and india – indeed one whole section of todd’s piece appears under the title ‘australian and indian weather’. todd’s conclusion about this teleconnection is worth quoting in full: comparing our records with those of india i find a close correspondence or similarity of seasons with regard to the prevalence of drought, and there can be little or no doubt that severe droughts occur as a rule simultaneously over the two countries. the most remarkable instance of this was the disastrous drought of 1876, the year of the great indian famine. this drought, it is said, has been traced from 30 deg. south in australia to 60 deg. north, over 90 degrees of latitude and 100 degrees of longitude.37 this is meteorology writ large. it goes beyond colonial borders. it far transcends the shores of the australian continent. todd’s scope encompasses not just the broader region but much of the tropical and temperate girdles of the world. moreover, todd’s global vision was being transmitted to the broader australian public who otherwise would have no reason to conceive of simultaneous patterns of drought between australia, india and far flung places such as mauritius. colonial meteorological networks were far from merely physical. this did not only apply to networks within the british empire. todd used weather data from banjoewangie (far eastern java) and jakarta to place the australian drought in context. for the former he noted that the north-west monsoon had been late in 1888, resulting in a 10 inch (250mm) deficit in rainfall for the calendar year. similarly jakarta’s 1888 rainfall was 14 inches or 350mm below the annual average.38 humboldt’s vision – to some extent was being fulfilled. ordering colonial meteorology this affords a great opportunity. with the region’s seasons defined as wet and dry, in accordance with the different monsoons, and presence of this reliable and selfconsciously systematic network, we can use rainfall data to test the concept against reality. average rainfall figures for darwin tell a story that fits the concept almost perfectly: annual drought, followed by linear increase to deluge, then a linear decline to drought, crossing thresholds of wet and dry in between (see fig. 4.1). as fig. 4.2 illustrates, data for batavia fits this pattern, albeit not as ideally. my work on darwin is more advanced hence the disparity of the data sets; java research is in progress. however, this data set for batavia is lengthy enough for the purposes of this paper. although i am using weather data and climate statistics, my analysis is historical, rather than statistical. moreover, this was what people interested in indonesia’s climate at the time had to think with. unlike darwin, batavia does not experience annual cycles of drought. the middle of the year is drier than the rest, but rain – sometimes heavy – usually still falls.39 between 1864 and 1882 the mean number of rain days between july and september was under eight; for january and february, it was over 20. so these ‘dry’ months would have seemed much drier, relative to ‘wet’ months.   o’brien,  deliberate  confusions   26           fig. 4.1. mean monthly rainfall, darwin post office, 1869 – 1942. fig. 4.2. mean monthly rainfall, batavia, 1864 – 1882. means, crucially, were the grammar of weather narratives at the time. this has continued in australasia until relatively recently, and continues among quasi-scientific lay approaches to weather and climate. the average is the essential value. the organising of the batavia data in the earliest publications of the observatory indicates just how intently this was so. volume vi of batavia observatory’s observations, published in 1885, contains upwards of 180 tables of enumerated data.40 the overwhelming majority of these are tables of means of various weather phenomena for each month, for times of day, for times of each month. to give a sense of just how meticulous the observing was, and how diligently data were arranged, allow me to cite a number of the less obvious titles: table 60 shows the ‘relative humidity of the air and mean change from hour to hour’; table 71 the ‘mean degree of relative humidity, 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec r ai nf al l ( m m ) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sept oct nov dec r ai nf al l ( m m )   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)           27     corresponding to 16 points of the compass’; table 50 reflects the lunar preoccupations of the period – ‘mean temperature of the 24 hours on 8 different moon phases’. similarly, data were organised and distributed according to monthly means of different weather phenomena. means then and since, have been the kernel of weather data and the discerning of climates. by the time meteorology emerged as a distinct discipline, averages and distributions of numerical values had acquired particular meanings. as stephen stigler has noted, with the work of belgian astronomer quetelet in the 1820s and 30s, the average came to be widely understood as normal. above and below values were deviations from the norm – variations but not signifiers of variability.41 as weather and seasons were understood to repeat each year, the issue of variability between years and patterns on decadal rather than yearly scales made little sense. variation was read as deviation, abnormality, and freak weather. averages, as philosopher ian hacking has concluded, were not just values but a powerful episteme.42 for a long time they were a principal instrument of how science understood the atmosphere. as meteorology became more systematic, more statistical and more numerical, variability became invisible in australasian science. the cycles proposed for both global and local weather collapsed. they failed because reality did not bare them out. with meteorology becoming more numerical, oceans of data from across the continent and region were collected. basic statistical calculations helped order this immensity and provided knowledge that ministered to many queries and needs. even the teleconnections identified by sir gilbert walker, the conceptual forerunner of enso, became peripheral. science had become blind to climatic variability in australasia. histories from numbers why does this matter? consider these rainfall graphs from darwin and batavia (figures 4.3 to 4.10).43 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 18 70 18 73 18 76 18 79 18 82 18 85 18 88 18 91 18 94 18 97 19 00 19 03 19 06 19 09 19 12 19 15 19 18 19 21 19 24 19 27 19 30 19 33 19 36 19 39 19 42 ra in fa ll (m m ) fig. 4.3. january rainfall, darwin post office, 1869 – 1941.   o’brien,  deliberate  confusions   28           fig. 4.4. january rainfall, batavia, 1864 – 1882. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 18 69 18 72 18 75 18 78 18 81 18 84 18 87 18 90 18 93 18 96 18 99 19 02 19 05 19 08 19 11 19 14 19 17 19 20 19 23 19 26 19 29 19 32 19 35 19 38 19 41 ra in fa ll (m m ) fig. 4.5. april rainfall, darwin post office, 1869 – 1941. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 r ai nf al l ( m m )   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)           29     fig. 4.6. april rainfall, batavia, 1864 – 1882. fig. 4.7. july rainfall, darwin, 1869 – 1941. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 r ai nf al l ( m m ) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 18 69 18 72 18 75 18 78 18 81 18 84 18 87 18 90 18 93 18 96 18 99 19 02 19 05 19 08 19 11 19 14 19 17 19 20 19 23 19 26 19 29 19 32 19 35 19 38 19 41 ra in fa ll (m m )   o’brien,  deliberate  confusions   30           fig. 4.8. july rainfall, batavia, 1864 – 1882. 0 50 100 150 200 250 18 69 18 72 18 75 18 78 18 81 18 84 18 87 18 90 18 93 18 96 18 99 19 02 19 05 19 08 19 11 19 14 19 17 19 20 19 23 19 26 19 29 19 32 19 35 19 38 19 41 ra in fa ll (m m ) fig. 4.9. october rainfall, darwin post office, 1869 – 1941. 0 50 100 150 200 250 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 r ai nf al l ( m m )   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)           31     fig. 4.10. october rainfall batavia, 1864 – 1882. historically, rainfall has been enormously variable from one year to another in both locales. the range in volumes for january, april and october in darwin and for all months in batavia is staggering – so much so that it is obvious that in both centres, aprils and octobers can be in one season one year; another the next. using 50mm as a threshold between wet and dry, there were 23 dry aprils and 39 dry octobers in darwin between 1869 and 1942. or, about one in three aprils and three in five octobers qualified as dry. between 1864 and 1882 in batavia three, or one in six aprils were dry and five, or one in three octobers were dry. the april range during these respective periods was 1.3mm (1897) to 603mm (1891) for darwin and 22mm (1872) to 406mm (1882) for batavia. octobers ranged from 0.0mm (1891, 1896, 1926 and 1941) to 213.4mm (1914) in darwin and from 0mm (1877) to 238mm (1867) in batavia. even deep into ‘the wet’ both centres recorded large variations in historical monthly rainfall: januaries in darwin between 1869 and 1942 ranged from 68mm in 1908 to 711.3mm in 1895. during the driest january from 1864 to 1882 – 1878 – 163mm was recorded in batavia; 822mm fell during the wettest january of this period (1872). but it is around the middle of the year when differences between the two are most stark. most obviously, darwin’s driest months on average are june, july and august and batavia’s are july, august and september. more importantly, drought does occur around darwin in about 95% of years lasting between 4 to 6weeks on both sides of the southern winter solstice. only twice during the 73 years from 1869 did at least one of the three driest months record over 50mm of rain in darwin. in contrast, during the 18 years from 1864, this only failed to happen on one single occasion in batavia. averages cannot show this, only histories of various weather elements. as shown above, such histories draw out different patterns between places with seemingly similar climates. of course, variability is not just an issue of volumes or quantities: timing is vital too. daily records for darwin from 1870 to 1942 demonstrate a climate at odds with the received understanding of two six-month periods of wet and dry each year. twice rain fell each calendar month. on another six occasions, it fell during 11 calendar months of its respective year.44 yet in 1896 no rain was recorded from 24 april until 16 november; 1925 likewise saw one of the only other sixmonth periods without rain. in 1925 rain was light, occasional and sporadic until december. the year 1926 seems to 0 50 100 150 200 250 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 r ai nf al l ( m m )   o’brien,  deliberate  confusions   32           have experienced two “dries”, one from 10 may till 10 september, the other from late september till early november. moreover, daily records show that in many years rainfall does not increase and decrease in the steady, linear fashion that monthly means suggest. my research on batavia has not advanced to analysis of daily weather data, yet. however, the monthly data set i have been using here yields worthwhile information about temporal patterns of rain.45 between 1864 and 1882 there was just one year, the infamous global drought year of 1877, when no rain fell for at least three months. 1881 was the only other year when rain was not recorded in a calendar month and in 1875 two months recorded just 1mm each. only three of these nineteen years experienced three consecutive months with less 50mm of rain. although july and august had by far the two lowest monthly rainfall means there were still five years when over 100mm fell in either july or august. similarly, there were six years in which at least 25mm was recorded each month and two on which over 50mm were recorded. a sample of 19 years is too small from which to extrapolate definite cycles. but it is enough to show that historical reality is significantly at variance with the dominant concepts of weather, climate, and season. continuing research on batavia’s weather history should give better shape to the nature of these differences and to the intricacies of the region’s atmospheric fluxes. in the early 1980s climatologists such as neville nicholls and john mcbride began studying variability in australasia. until then a bizarre situation had developed such that data spoke of regularity, while the evolution of suggested variability. now, amidst debates about climate change variability and other complexities, australia’s climates are yet to be understood – and climate change can and will change the very variability of variable climates. concluding thoughts variability re-emerged in australasia as the world has been grappling with anthropogenic climate change. for a time this enabled the deliberate confusing of the two. sorting out the confusions, however, is an opportunity for remarkable clarification. one cause of confusion is the imported understandings of the colonisers. new concepts of seasons for different locales across the region can be identified through study of historical data. for darwin, this, unsurprisingly, would largely match the nuanced concepts and patterns discerned through the millennia long empirical observations of the locale’s aboriginal peoples. with a better understanding of seasons and their turning we have many more signifiers of climate change: are seasons earlier, later, of different lengths? are some seasons becoming more frequent or less frequent on decadal scales? have some seasons acquired a different quality? we not only learn more about climate change but about the patterns that constitute climate itself. data about quantities such as rain volume, temperature and humidity are vital in identifying both change and variability; but both happen across time, on various timescales. indeed knowing about long term mechanisms of variability such as enso we can now, in the long term, look to see whether global warming is changing the dynamics, scale and timing of this mechanism. common to understanding both australasia’s climate cycles and global warming is the need for this rigorous, empirically based reconceptualising of seasons. our received ideas of season fail to account for much of what we experience. also, climate change will alter the nature and timing of these seasons anyway. this re-think demands considering seasons as not merely anchored to annual cycles of earth’s tilting   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)           33     on its axis, but also to the decadal scale fluxes in the great ocean of air we call our atmosphere. finally in the west, we need to uncouple the seasons from calendar. or at the very least, integrate events in the physical world into our reckoning. in some places circumstances might even demand that we acknowledge that some seasons do not occur every year and, conversely, that some years do not include every season. the diligence of observers in the past has given us a treasure trove of meteorological material. with this we can learn so much more about weather, climate, and the relationships between them. other cultures offer other ways of knowing about the dynamics of the atmosphere and, sometimes, their relationships to various ecological events. it is up to us to ask new and revealing questions to combat the confusions others would foist upon us for personal or political gain.                                                                                                                           references 1 see home page ‘skeptical science’, https://www.skepticalscience.com, accessed: 17/2/2014. 2 opinion poll, 21/1/2014, essential research, http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport/page/3, accessed: 17/2/2014. 3 mike hulme, why we disagree about climate change, (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2009), pp. 72-109. 4 don garden, droughts, floods and cyclones: el niños that shaped our colonial past, (melbourne: australian scholarly publishing, 2009), p. xiii. 5 deborah bird rose, ‘when the rainbow walks’, in eric k. webb ed., windows on meteorology, (melbourne: csiro publishing, 1997), p. 3. 6 ibid., p. 5. 7 rhys jones and betty meehan, ‘balmarrk wana: big winds of arnhem land’, in webb (ed.), op. cit., p. 15. 8 stephen davis, ‘documenting an aboriginal seasonal calendar’, in webb (ed.), ibid., p. 31. 9 ibid., p32. 10 ben orlove, ‘how people name seasons’, in sarah strauss and ben orlove (eds), weather, climate, culture, (oxford: berg, 2003), pp. 130-31. 11 robert hoogenraad and george jampijinpa robertson, ‘seasonal calendars from central australia’, in webb (ed.), op. cit., pp. 34-35. 12 for a detailed history of this relationship in western thinking, see author’s chapter, ‘imported understandings’, in james beattie, emily o’gorman and matthew henry (eds), climate, science and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, (new york: palgrave, 2014), pp. 195-212. 13 the most recent comprehensive treatment of this appears in bill gammage, the biggest estate on earth, (sydney: allen and unwin, 2011). 14 j.a.g. little, 1902, quoted in griffith taylor, the australian environment (especially as controlled by rainfall), (melbourne: government printer, 1918), p. 70. 15 william dampier, john masefield ed., dampier’s voyages: consisting of a new voyage around the world, two voyages to campeachy, a discourse of winds, and a vindication, in answer to the chimerical relation of william furnell, (london: e. grant richards, 1906), pp. 246-47. 16 i detail this in my essay a ‘cultural history of the monsoon’, currently under review for publication. 17 charles mckew parr, jan van linschoten: the dutch marco polo (new york: thomas y. cromwell company, 1964), p. xviii. 18 john huyghen van linschoten, the voyage of john huyghen van linscoten to the east indies, volume 1, ed. arthur coke burnell, (london: hakluyt society, 1885), p. 33.   o’brien,  deliberate  confusions   34                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               19 john splinter stavorinus, voyages to the east indies, vol ii, (london: g.g. and j. robinson, 1798), p. 179. dutch mile – called an hour is about 3.5 english miles. 20 ibid., p. 321. 21 richard grove, ‘the east india company, the raj and el niño, in richard h grove, vinita damodaran and satpal sangwan (eds), nature and the orient: the environmental history of south and southeast asia, (delhi: oxford university press, 1998) pp. 301-303. 22 minutes of the intercolonial meteorological conference held at sydney on the 11th, 13th, 14th november 1879, (sydney: government printer, 1880). nb: freestanding copies of these minutes can be found in the bureau of meteorology’s libraries. originally, these would have been published in the parliamentary papers of the colonies of new south wales, victoria, south australia for 1879. 23 p.a. bergsma, observations made at the magnetical and meteorological observatory at batavia, vol ii, (batavia: government printing office, 1878), v. 24 bmkg indonesia, history of meteorological, climatological and geophysical agency, http://www.bmkg.go.id/bmkg_pusat/profile/history.bmkg, accessed: 4/2/2014. 25 bergsma, op. cit., vii. 26 william stanley jevons, waugh and cox’s australian almanac 1855, (sydney: waugh and cox, 1855). 27 mike davis, late victorian holocausts, (london: verso, 2001) p. 222. 28 charles egeson, egeson’s weather system of sun-spot causality, being original researches in solar and terrestrial meteorology, (sydney: turner & henderson, 1889); h.c. russell, ‘on the periodicity of good and bad seasons’, town and country journal, 13 june 1896, p28. 29 grove, op. cit, pp. 302-304. 30 davis, op. cit. 31 r.j. ellery, the australasian, 29/12/1888, p. 1455. 32 ibid., p. 1456. 33 h.c russell, the australasian, 29/12/1888, p. 1456. 34 ibid. 35 ibid. 36 charles todd, ibid. 37 ibid. 38 ibid. 39 observations made at the magnetical and meteorological observatory at batavia, volume vi, 1885, (batavia: government printer, 1885), p. 280. 40 observations made…at batavia, vol vi, op. cit. 41 stephen stigler, statistics on the table, (cambridge, ma: harvard university press), pp. 5363. 42 ian hacking, taming of chance, (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1990), pp. 105106. 43 these graphs have been constructed using meteorological observations at darwin post office from 1869 to 1942 taken by adelaide observatory to 1908 and the commonwealth bureau of meteorology (australia) from 1908 and from observations at batavia observatory, 1864-1882, op. cit. 44 adelaide observatory and commonwealth bureau of meteorology, daily rainfall, darwin post office, 1869-1942. unless otherwise cited, all data in this paragraph comes from this source. 45 all data here comes from observations made at…batavia, vi, op. cit., p. 280. microsoft word hom1beattie.doc history of meteorology 5 (2009) 1 climate change, forest conservation and science: a case study of new zealand, 1860s-19201 james beattie2 department of history university of waikato jbeattie@waikato.ac.nz introduction to most of its european settlers, new zealand was a land blessed by providence. a temperate climate and year-round rainfall, easy availability of land and myriad work opportunities attracted many to the new colony. climate and health figured prominently in migration considerations and many writers took delight in pointing out, as propagandist john ward did to intending migrants in 1839, that in new zealand: a never-failing moisture is dispersed over the country by the clouds which collect on the mountain-tops, without the occurrence of rainy seasons, beyond storms of a few days’ duration. this refreshing moisture, combined with the influence of the sea-breezes, renders the climate very favourable to the health, and development, of the human frame. and vegetation is, from the same cause, highly luxuriant, and the verdure almost perpetual.3 new zealand compared favourably to its nearest neighbour – and rival migrant destination – the australian colonies. new zealand, observed pacific traveller george f. angas (1822-1886) in 1866, ‘has the mild winters, the clear sky, and pure atmosphere of’ australia, but was ‘free from its hot winds and long-continued droughts…and in the winter [enjoys] very heavy rains, with rough tempestuous weather’.4 as environmental historian don garden notes in his fascinating study of the impact of el niño southern oscillation (enso) on australasia, despite localised evidence to the contrary, new zealand’s more regular rainfall largely surpassed australia’s droughty land.5 despite lower rainfall over the ensuing year, the new zealand farmer in 1911 still expressed confidence in the climate of new zealand to supply the needs of its farmers. for it, drought represented an aberration to a largely temperate climate. ‘when we speak of a drought in this dominion,’ it claimed, ‘we do not mean that we are labouring under the rainless, agonising periods which so frequently afflict australia; the information we intend to convey is that, for the time being, new zealand has not been blest [sic] with the copious, energising rainfall which it usually enjoys.’6 as new zealand’s settlers made use of the natural and physical resources of recently acquired land, draining swamps, sowing grass seed, and converting forest to farm, several politicians, engineers and scientists began to grow alarmed about high rates of deforestation that threatened to reduce its copious, energising rainfall. informed by overseas writing, they believed that deforestation diminished rainfall and increased temperatures. unless prevented, they believed deforestation could render new zealand treeless, unleashing alternating cycles beattie, climate change, forest conservation and science 2 of drought and flooding. in time, they predicted, drought would choke new zealand’s agricultural productivity, plunging the economy into serious depression, while its soils would be simply washed away through devastating deluges. excesses of settlement, by which proponents meant overly high rates of deforestation, were threatening to destroy the natural productivity of much of new zealand while in those places not blessed by providence proponents pinned their hopes on tree-planting’s ability to improve existing climates. in expressing these concerns, new zealand writers drew upon a rich body of international scholarship on the impact of deforestation on timber supply, health, hydrology and climate. relying as much on anecdote and drawing upon the rich biblical and classical traditions in which their culture was steeped, many pointed to the destruction of agriculture and peoples occasioned by deforestation in the middle and near east. others gleaned information from more recent experiences in south asia, the united states (us), highland europe and even south africa of deforestation and its impacts, including drawing attention to detailed scientific work undertaken by french climatologists into the relationship between rainfall, temperature and trees. suggestions for state forest conservation relied on fears of a timber famine, supplemented by arguments about climatic and hydrological change. models came from india, france, germany and to a lesser extent the us in the nineteenth century, switching to us and ecological models in the early twentieth century.7 analysis of new zealand parliamentary debates, official papers and scientific and popular journals reveals considerable debate on the perceived impact of deforestation on local and regional meteorological conditions. as part of broader concerns about the effects of deforestation on timber supplies, health and hydrology, climatic arguments played an important role in attempts to introduce state forest conservation into new zealand in the nineteenth century and to thereby increase government intervention in society. this article examines these debates and how, over time, climatic arguments became decoupled from wider concerns about the effects of deforestation. more particularly, this article investigates how supporters and opponents of climatic forestry tried to legitimise their stance through recourse to ideas about science. following american models, the scientific legitimacy of the forests-climate argument came under increasing debate; by the twentieth century the forestsclimate theory no longer appeared to be ‘good’ science, represented by measurable, replicable experimentation supported by detailed statistical evidence. inability to accurately measure the relationship between forests and rainfall – and therefore to meet the scientific burden of proof – undermined not only the theory but also the cultural authority of the forestry lobby which espoused it. consequently, to maintain scientific legitimacy, scientists largely discarded the forest-climate connection. also examined are the overseas models and connections both supporters and opponents employed to debate climatic anxieties in new zealand. perceptions of new zealand’s nineteenth century climate this article begins with new zealand’s environmental history and the importance of climate, before examining the methods new zealand’s advocates of state forest conservation employed to support their standpoint and legitimate their demands. before formal colonization, some 100,000 maori lived throughout new zealand, most on te ika a maui (north island). this island enjoyed milder winters and longer growing periods than the cooler te wai pounamu (south island). formal colonization began in 1840 when the british crown and many maori chiefs signed the treaty of waitangi. becoming part of the british empire opened the floodgates to european settlement. within forty years of its signing, new zealand’s european population exploded. probably fewer than 2,000 europeans lived in new zealand before 1840. by 1881 well over half a million europeans lived there. most came to the south island, which, until the late nineteenth century, appealed far more than the north. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 3 unlike the densely forested north island, settlers encountered grasslands on the south island’s east coast, enabling them to more easily establish pastoralism and agriculture without the hassle of forest clearance. several gold rushes – most importantly otago’s from 1861 – attracted migrants, including significant numbers of chinese, to the south island. finally, the new zealand land wars, waged between confederations of maori tribes, and the crown and its maori allies, broke out from the 1840s and continued to challenge european settlement until well into the nineteenth century. massive environmental change followed settlement, on a scale perhaps globally unrivalled either in its rapidity or documentation.8 forests made way for farms. grass seed replaced indigenous vegetation. swamps disappeared. in the hunger for land, government nullified maori customary title. within a relatively short period, new zealand functioned as a giant imperial farm, supplying raw materials and food to australian, british and other markets. the south island boomed for much of the nineteenth century. primarily this occurred on the back of the east coast pastoral industry but also because of the gold discoveries in its central and northern areas. fortunes – and population – shifted to the north island in the twentieth century. refrigeration enabled dairy and meat products to be shipped overseas to imperial consumers, generating the impetus and capital to convert much of the newly-opened north island’s lands recently prised from its maori owners.9 in a country so heavily reliant on primary production for the economic and social well-being of its inhabitants, not to mention for attracting future migrants, climate – ‘the sum of weather changes experienced’ at a place – mattered greatly.10 propagandists regularly promoted new zealand’s climatic similarities to britain. according to imperial tourist, charles dilke, such similarities explained why ‘the english fauna and flora are peculiarly well fitted to succeed at our antipodes’. it meant, he continued, that ‘our men, flies, and plants – the ‘pick’ of the whole world – have not even to encounter the difficulties of acclimatization in their struggle against the weaker growths indigenous to the soil’.11 countless others marvelled at the remarkable growth rates of crops, staggered in awe at gargantuan vegetables or marvelled at the remarkable rapidity and ease with which overseas plants, animals and people acclimatised into new zealand. indeed, new zealanders began to regard their country as not simply like britain, but as a better britain.12 in a large measure this rested on perceptions of the beneficial effects of its climate to the growth of both introduced plants and agricultural processes and to the growth and health of europeans themselves. a climate free of sudden vicissitudes accorded with contemporary medical advice to avoid sudden changes of temperature.13 as the missionary the rev. william yate succinctly articulated soon after formal colonisation, ‘new zealand’s climate renders the sickly healthy, the healthy robust and the robust fat’.14 chubby cheeked children impressed augustus earle of the goodness of new zealand’s climate on his visit to a mission station in the 1830s.15 tables displayed remarkably low settler morbidity and mortality rates. they commonly accompanied accounts of its climatic suitability to white settlement, never mind that much of new zealand’s settler population was disproportionably young and so unfairly skewed the figures.16 settlers took such images seriously. attracted by presentations of a salubrious climate, many migrants – and many doctors – arrived in new zealand for health reasons, often on medical advice.17 images of a temperate and well-watered land aiding the growth of european productions and peoples also reinforced normative european assumptions that environments were ‘naturally’ productive, views coincident with post-lapsarian interpretations of the world. according to this view, before the fall nature was bountiful and generous. suffering was absent. peace reigned between man and beast.18 after the fall ‘man forfeited his easy dominance over other species.’19 a lack of water and productivity represented wilderness. beattie, climate change, forest conservation and science 4 wilderness bore witness to the fall of man. it denoted a place where humanity is ‘cursed above all cattle’ (genesis 3: 14), tormented by plagues of insects, attacked by wild beasts, cut by thorns, and cursed by weeds, drought and flood.20 this concept of wilderness – of humanity inhabiting a sinful and fallen world – impelled the improving ethos of many of new zealand’s nineteenth century european colonists, as it had so many settlers elsewhere. improvement was shackled to the legal tradition furthered by thinkers like john locke. when a man ‘hath mixed his labour with’ the land god gave him, wrote locke, he ‘thereby makes it his property’.21 religious ideas imbued agriculture with a morality that legal traditions and popular attitudes reinforced. biblical injunctions to subdue the earth and make it plentiful enjoined humans to improve upon nature and thereby to, metaphorically at least, restore their relationship to god through recreating the garden of eden.22 countless settlers described new zealand in biblical terms. central to realising their dreams of land ownership and meeting christian injunctions were perceptions that europeans were improving new zealand through extending cultivation and making land lying idle – wasteland – productive.23 when settlers believed human changes were actually creating a wasteland, serious anxieties resulted. as early as the 1840s, visiting scientists drew attention to the dangers of unregulated deforestation. in 1843, german naturalist ernst dieffenbach, for instance, warned that firing forests threatened to destroy the very fertility of the soil itself.24 based on research observations in the late 1850s, austrian scientist ferdinand von hochstetter censured settlers for unregulated burning removing topsoil and turning the country into a desert.25 these represented just the tip of the iceberg of a series of unintended environmental problems that became apparent over the nineteenth century, environmental problems consequent with increasing environmental change and longer-term european observation of new zealand environmental processes. in the 1840s some settlers warned of the need for regulation otherwise rapidly declining whale numbers would end the industry. others at the time criticised rapid deforestation on parts of the forest-scarce south island east coast. by the 1870s and 1880s initially popular introductions like rabbits earned themselves a reputation as the ‘grey menace’, a pest consuming acres of fertile fields. by this time some plant introductions, like gorse and blackberry, were running wild while the extinction of certain species signalled questionable environmental management. growing evidence of environmental problems thus contributed to a growing culture of anxiety among scientific and some political circles,26 anxiety that did not question development but its direction.27 climatic anxieties and forest conservation climatic anxieties about the rapid removal of new zealand’s forests appeared as early as the 1860s. expressed by scientists, engineers and some politicians, climatic anxieties emerged alongside concerns about deforestation’s impact on flooding and soil erosion, which for most were secondary to fears about loss of future timber supply.28 typical of concerns in the early 1870s were those expressed in 1873 by new zealand parliamentarian charles o’neill. at different times o’neill served as the parliamentary representative of two gold mining areas: first, from 1866 to 1870, goldfields (central otago), which lacked readily available timber as a result of pre-european non-human and maori deforestation, and then from 1871-1875 thames (eastern north island), a more densely timbered region but which still faced problems of deforestation. as an engineer o’neill would have understood the importance of timber to gold mining, for heating and domestic needs and for pit props, but it is unclear where he obtained his interest and detailed knowledge of the processes of deforestation. in speaking before parliament, o’neill charged that ‘consideration both by the house and government’ of his ‘conservation of forests bill’ was vitally important ‘so that history of meteorology 5 (2009) 5 history might not be able to relate that they [settlers] received a fertile country, but, by a criminal want of foresight, transmitted to posterity a desert.’ o’neill presented a fearful picture of the likely consequences of continued deforestation: timber famine, drought and flooding, decreasing rainfall, and soil erosion that would strip the country of its valuable soils, choke its waterways and bring disaster to the nation. ‘[e]ven in new zealand the climate’, he wrote, ‘had been altered considerably by forest fires.’29 as a result of o’neill’s bill, parliament requested further information about deforestation, asking land commissioners to provide information about deforestation rates and whether they considered timber loss caused climatic alteration.30 if estimates of new zealand’s deforestation bore out o’neill’s fears, survey returns from land commissioners did not support his contention about climatic alteration. from an estimated forest area in 1830 of over 20 million acres, forest acreage fell by 5 million in 1868, a further 5 million only five years later, such that in 1873 it was estimated to be 12 million acres.31 most commissioners thought that climate change through deforestation had not taken place. the few who thought it had welcomed it as reducing an overly damp climate!32 forest conservation remained high on the political agenda in the 1870s, forming an important plank in premier julius vogel’s ambitious scheme to kick-start the new zealand economy. borrowing heavily, vogel used money for assisted migration and to develop the nation’s railway infrastructure, the latter scheme of course requiring vast amounts of timber. forest conservation fitted in with vogel’s broader principles of economic development. the bill generated heated discussion because of its controversial nature. unlike o’neill’s debate, which elicited only three responses, almost half of the house spoke during the forests debate of 1874.33 many supporters of the maintenance of provincial power vehemently opposed it, not so much because of opposition to the principle of conservation but rather because the bill promised to increase central government control at the expense of the provinces. provinces had been established in 1852, with initially six and later nine (southland became a province in 1861 but was abolished in 1870). provincial politicians, who were responsible for such matters as health, immigration, law enforcement and the disposal of “waste lands,” resented the intrusion of central government into their affairs. particular opposition centred on vogel’s initial debt-for-land scheme. vogel’s plan involved reserving not more than three per cent of the land area of each province for forest growth in return for writing off the one per cent sinking fund provinces paid to the government for railway construction. according to vogel’s model, the revenue earned from forestry would be used to discharge the colony’s debt.34 although later commentators on the forests bill, such as graeme wynn, correctly emphasise that state intervention stood as an affront to the laissez-faire policies of the day, the fact that the principles of conservation received significant support from some quarters indicates some level of interest in government intervention.35 twenty-two of the thirty-four members who spoke during the bill actually supported some form of forest conservation.36 even if they did not favour the establishment of a forestry department, at least they agreed in principle of the need for governmental intervention, whether central or provincial, to protect threatened forests. as many pointed out, though, the trouble with new zealand’s forest resources were that there they were unevenly spread across the country.37 north island surfeit contrasted with the east coast of the south island’s dearth. debate also indicates that supporters for forest conservation furthered the notion that some kind of regulation was required to protect the public good. in this case, it meant preventing a likely timber famine and the ruination of the country’s climate and agriculture. throughout this debate, climatic arguments featured strongly both in arguments for and against forest conservation. some members accepted climate change and feared its consequences. some dismissed it altogether. others accepted climate change but held its influence to be beneficial. beattie, climate change, forest conservation and science 6 the bill’s tabler, julius vogel, as well as emphasising the need for forest conservation to safeguard timber supply and waterways, played up fears of the climatic effects wrought by deforestation. a recent visit to the south island, he related, ‘forcibly presented’ to him ‘how much deterioration our climate was liable to sustain’ from deforestation.38 to support his arguments, as paul star notes, vogel tied together ‘a string of quotes from the writings of others’ on the necessity of forest conservation.39 these vivid descriptions emphasised the wages that would be paid by a people who foolishly disforested landscapes. vogel, drawing his arguments for forestry from american, south asian and european sources,40 argued that new zealand’s ‘peculiar shape’, its ‘two long, narrow strips of land’ also made it particularly susceptible to soil erosion and flooding.41 in the debate charles o’neill continued where he had left off the year before, pointing out that: we know that, by the destruction of forests, climate is most seriously altered. we know quite well that, in other countries, plains which were once filled with forest have had their climate much changed by the destruction of those forests by fires which have had their climates much changed by the destruction of those forests by fires which have desolated miles upon miles of country.42 edward stafford (premier, 1856-61; 1872) agreed. according to him, new zealand required mountain reserves so as to protect its climate and soils.43 others, such as john cracroft wilson, drew heavily from personal experience of indian forestry.44 these doom-laden predictions moved one parliamentarian, nelson mhr david mitchell luckie, to boldly declare ‘i say, perish the provinces, but preserve the country’.45 while many entirely agreed with vogel’s climatic anxieties, not everyone gave trees carte blanche climatic control. member of the house of representatives (mhr) for franklin (south of auckland) william buckland believed that forests only exercised local climatic influence.46 fellow parliamentarian edward richardson (west christchurch) felt that only time would indicate the ‘effect planting of trees will produce in new zealand.’47 some criticised the idea outright. according to mhr walter johnston (manuwatu), those ‘countries the most happy in respect of climate and fertility, were precisely those which had the least percentage of forests, namely great britain, holland, spain, and portugal.’ johnston also dismissed as ‘entirely irrelevant’ comparisons made with tropical countries and the us. unlike the largely temperate, narrow landmass of new zealand, the latter, he pointed out, had great extremes of summer and winter temperatures. ireland, a comparably temperate and similarly sized country to new zealand, he noted, ‘broadly speaking, has no forests at all’. great britain, with only a sixth of new zealand’s forest, still had a productive agricultural base.48 wairarapa’s member samuel andrew attacked the historical accuracy of statements about the evil effects of deforestation. andrew pointed out, for instance, that palestine, upheld by many supporters of conservation as offering a salutary lesson against deforestation, faced water scarcity long before deforestation began. drought, andrew pointed out, led to over-watering and salinisation. in spain, he related, sugar cane grew from the seventh to eighth centuries and still grows, thus disproving the claim that deforestation decreases rainfall. equally, he pointed out, canada’s climate ‘may have become more severe, but it by no means follows that it is from disforesting.’ these, and other reasoned examples, indicated to andrew that ‘the conclusion drawn by scientific men, that disforesting injuriously affects a temperate climate, are not proved so far as to justify us in passing a bill of this kind on the strength of them.’49 criticism of the forest-climate theory highlighted problems that would eventually lead scientists and lobbyists in new zealand to drop the concept entirely. in the nineteenth century history of meteorology 5 (2009) 7 accuracy of measurement and an ability to replicate experiments elsewhere became hallmarks of science, and qualities – or virtues – of the scientist.50 in debates about the need for state forestry, scientific knowledge and disciplinary formation helped to extend state authority. as historian of science david livingstone has observed on the relationship between science, scientific methods and government formation: courtesy of the spirit of calculation and the impulse towards planning, the state has enlisted the methods of science not only in making, but also in maintaining national identity…alongside its role in surveying the state’s territorial scope and natural assets, scientific surveillance has been harnessed to manage cultural capital and demographic resources by applying quantitative procedures to public affairs.51 to take just one well-known example, the ‘sciences of government’ (kameralwissenschaften or the cameral sciences) that developed in the german-speaking lands from the eighteenth century demonstrate the developing nexus between science and state formation through territorial knowledge and increasing control on citizens’ lives. states such as prussia applied these methodologies to a host of government activities. administration, surveying, tax collection, agriculture, forestry, even the mapping of disease all felt the imprint of kameralwissenschaften. as a process contributing to a sense of common territorial identity, the kameralwissenschaften legitimated the state’s rights to tax and intervene in its citizens’ lives.52 with scientific authority resting on sound methodology, over the course of the nineteenth century, science increasingly required verifiable and replicable experiments and theories. repeatability and accuracy (standardised measurement) fortified the totalising claims of scientific objectivity, especially above local, subjective knowledge.53 as historian of science vladimir janković observes, the power of quantification in early nineteenth century meteorology rested on its ability to make ‘alternatives intellectually inferior and embarrassing for the expositors.’54 in so doing, meteorologists, like other scientists at the time, made ‘their claims and practices credible…by distinguishing them from unworthy claims and practices of some nether region of non-science.’55 james r. fleming’s fascinating study, meteorology in america, demonstrates that that discipline ‘emerged as both a legitimate science and a government service’ following the american civil war. as fleming demonstrates of nineteenth century america, through charles schott’s detailed statistical analysis of us rainfall and temperature records, the difficulty for advocates of the forest-climate link was that their argument relied on historical anecdote and observations, rather than verifiable data and experimentation.56 proving the forest-climate link through scientific means rather than observation remained a problem for its advocates, and eventually led to it dropping out of justifications for forestry as it also did in new zealand state forestry: 1876 despite some stringent criticism, a watered down version of vogel’s act passed, establishing a new state forests department, supported by a £10,000 budget.57 in 1876, its first conservator of forests, captain inches campbell walker, arrived. previously deputy conservator in madras presidency, india, walker brought with him a wealth of conservation experience. embarking on a survey of the colony’s forests, walker’s arguments for their conservation appeared in 1876 and 1877.58 at their core, walker advocated scientific forestry. mindful that the main thrust of government policy was land settlement, walker emphasised the protection conserved forests gave agriculture as well as their economic beattie, climate change, forest conservation and science 8 benefits. removing forestry from direct competition with agriculture on the lowlands, he argued for its development on highlands. quoting european, indian and american authors, he associated forests, through their regulation of climate and soils, with the preservation of new zealand’s climate. destruction of high altitude forests, cautioned walker, would mean bidding ‘farewell to the smiling fields in the vallies [sic] below and abundant pasture on the lower slopes of the hills’.59 climatic anxieties thus buttressed his arguments for forest conservation and for government to take an increased role in society. since a key plank of walker’s arguments rested on the forests-rainfall theory, he attempted to settle any uncertainty about it in new zealand by examining temperature records and matching these up with deforestation rates. walker hoped his research would shore up his belief that deforestation ‘exercises an injurious effect on both [climate and permanent water supply], whilst the formation of plantations in dry and arid regions ameliorates the climate and renders the water supply more copious and permanent.’ consulting records of new zealand’s average rainfall between 1866 and 1875, however, revealed that mean rainfall had actually risen slightly despite accelerating rates of deforestation.60 walker dismissed the reliability of such figures. according to him, meteorological observations had improved significantly in this period, rendering his attempt unscientific.61 walker’s efforts to measure the effects of deforestation on climate perhaps reflected attempts to increase the legitimacy of state forestry through recourse to statistics. experience in india may have prompted walker. foresters in india only began to accept climatic theories in the face of observational evidence.62 as with other climatic conservationists, however, intuition and observation ultimately informed his belief in the powers of forests to attract rain: these would ultimately lead to the dismissal of climatic anxieties in scientific circles later in the century. if saving existing forests was important to campbell walker, then so too was creating new ones. tree-planting should go ahead, he continued, since he had ‘little doubt that’ they had already ameliorated the colony’s climate.63 according to him, ‘all along the east coast with bare plains and comparatively little timber, we have but a scanty rainfall, whereas in the densely-wooded west coast we have a rainfall greatly in excess of the average.’ confusing cause with effect, the conservator asked rhetorically: ‘why should not rain have fallen and forests been created on the eastern slopes of the mountains, on which the clouds, laden with moisture from the pacific, first impinge’?64 although the act was revoked due to financial difficulties, over half a million acres was reserved for climatic purposes under the 1877 land act. significant support for climatic arguments which appeared together with hydrological and timber famine concerns – came from several quarters, including engineer f.s. peppercorne. peppercorne wrote the ‘influence of forests on climate and rainfall’, first published in the transactions in 1879 and later privately in 1880.65 ‘it appears to be not generally known that, within certain limitations, climates (like soils) may be made good or bad by human agency’, explained peppercorne, ‘and that one great agent in diffusing a general and uniform moisture, is the growth of forest trees, whose roots, branches, and leaves serve as reservoirs in times of rain, to be given forth again in dry weather.’66 peppercorne expounded in great scientific detail, the precise influence of trees on the surrounding air and groundwater, citing scientific experiments undertaken by overseas experts in support. quoting from the french forestry expert, professor macarel, for instance, peppercorne demonstrated that ‘all the wants of life are closely related to their conservation: agriculture, architecture, and most industries, seek therein their ailment and resources’. he also used the research of m. mathieu and pupils of the schools of forestry, nancy, to argue that forests increased both underground springs and the volume of underground water, also lowering evaporation rates and temperatures. based on the historical examples and research cited, peppercorne confidently argued that ‘one of the history of meteorology 5 (2009) 9 first duties of an enlightened government’ concerned ‘[t]he preservation of the forests of a country’.67 many other articles appeared on this topic in the 1880s, including in recentlypublished farming journals, indicating the support of some in this sector. in 1880 a. lecoy, a retired french forester, published his advice.68 lecoy implored the new zealand government, for the sake of the climate, to increase the extent of state forests. private individuals, he pointed out, would not leave forests standing for the benefit of society as a whole. only state forestry, he noted, offered the way forward, bringing financial gain as well as climatic and hydrological stability.69 chamberlain’s challenge: the climatic lobby in the 1880s although the extent of forest conservation increased in the 1880s, the conservation lobby in parliament remained vocal in the 1880s in the face of continuing deforestation elsewhere. in 1882, henry chamberlain, auckland’s mhr, presented a quite extraordinary discussion of conservation and settlement exclusively reliant on the forests-climate link. based on lecoy’s report (see above), chamberlain noted that in germany and france, both countries that ‘had for long ages studied the advantages of maintaining and retaining their forests’, the ‘desirable quantity’ of forestland was one quarter of the total area. in canterbury, chamberlain instanced that the area was only two per cent; in auckland, seven per cent. deforestation in a region with a ‘moist hot climate’ such as auckland’s, chamberlain noted, was particularly dangerous for ‘the climate would become very different, and scarcely anything would be able to be produced there.’70 chamberlain advocated drawing up maps showing highland areas and forest areas and then using this information to inform forest legislation. in his discussion, the mhr ascribed to forests almost exclusive control over climate: persons seeing the amount of forest and forest reserve would be able to judge what kind of climate any particular district would be likely to possess, which would influence them in choosing a place to settle in, and people would be also able to see where they could purchase forest land whenever government might have it for sale.71 interestingly, unlike most other advocates who left the lowlands to agriculture, chamberlain favoured integration of forestland with farming. although sympathetic and recognising that wasteful deforestation ‘was a deplorable fact’, richard oliver, minister without portfolio, replied that ‘very often there was no option between letting the lands lie idle and sacrificing valuable trees.’72 land settlement triumphed over forest conservation. the following year chamberlain, undaunted, introduced another bill aimed at protecting forested areas from ‘the wooded ranges to the plains and lowlands’ specifically for climatic and catchment reasons. bolstered by rainfall statistics, chamberlain demonstrated that deforestation had dried up the colony’s climate (table 1). table 1. chamberlain’s findings on new zealand rainfall decline region decline in rainfall over last seventeen years (measured in inches over five year periods) 1867-1872 1872-1877 18771882 auckland 48 43 40 southland 46 41 42 canterbury 27 25 22 beattie, climate change, forest conservation and science 10 based on nzpd, 1 august, vol.45, 1883, p.212. he also charged that deforestation increased flooding and pointed out that conservation would extend the timber trade.73 eight other mhrs spoke during the debate, of whom five supported chamberlain’s espousal of the forests-climate link.74 j.w. barnicoat (nelson) argued that by enacting forest conservation humans: had it to some extent in their power to transmit the soil and the climate, in all their richness and excellence, that they themselves now enjoyed; for forests had an influence on the atmosphere, on the waters that fertilized the earth, and even on the crust of the earth itself…. when the forests were destroyed the streams dried up, the floods became sudden and violent, and the earth became arid and barren.75 according to barnicoat, the ability of forests to influence climate and hydrology gave humans the power to transform the earth so as to maintain a region’s fertility. mathew holmes (otago) agreed. tree-planting in dry districts like north otago and the waimea plains, he believed, could double the amount of existing rainfall and increase the value of the land.76 as with the earlier conservation debates doubters either questioned the occurrence of climatic deterioration or attacked the rainfall-forests theory. much forest remained in the country, observed henry scotland (taranaki); that removed had not caused appreciable rainfall decline.77 the relief of the mountains, not trees, pointed out james richmond (nelson, legislative council), accounted for the surfeit of rain on the south island’s west coast and its deficit on the east.78 frederick alexander whitaker (waipa) dismissed chamberlain’s contention of rainfall decline, and noted the practical difficulties of reserving land in canterbury since most of it lay in private hands.79 another attempt at conservation, the 1885 state forests act, established three types of reserved forest land. provision remained for the forest-climate idea. under the act, class i forests acknowledged ‘climatal [sic] or mountain reserves, to include all forests reserved for shelter, for the conservation of the water-supply, or for climatic reasons, irrespective of altitude’.80 only two mhrs, in fact, discussed climatic conservation.81 it is surprising, on the face of it, that not more time passed discussing the climatic principles of the bill. after all, this comprised a major part of the bill. silence and lack of criticism of these ideas, suggests that parliamentarians accepted the forests-climate link. a closer look at the actual legislation reveals another important difference from earlier climatic legislation. although most of the reserves were gazetted in highland areas, the act also provided for the reservation of lowland areas. this suggests that parliament had realised the importance of lowland, as well as highland, protection. perhaps, too, it realised that rather than planting trees after forest had been removed, it was a lot cheaper and less labour intensive to reserve existing areas of lowland forest. the 1885 act followed that of its predecessor. in 1887, despite criticism of this move by t. kirk, conservator of state forests, a new government withdrew crown funding.82 in 1888, signalling a departure in policy from conservation to use, parliament passed the ‘state forests act amendment’ which allowed the governor to withdraw land from state forest areas.83 during debate on this bill, some parliamentarians protested against the opening up of forests, warning that this would prove detrimental to both new zealand’s climate and soils. yet withdrawing land from state forests, as historical geographer michael roche notes, reflected the liberal government’s programme of closer land settlement.84 the 1890s witnessed a concerted settlement ‘push’ by the newly-elected and reform-minded liberal government (1891-1912) that signalled increased government role in society. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 11 through legislation and loans, the liberals encouraged closer land settlement, part of their policy of breaking up the larger estates and obtaining maori land. the push for development – particularly in the forested north island – accelerated deforestation, heightening fears of an impending timber famine at the same time as a move took place to reserve other forests areas for scenic purposes.85 as elsewhere, in new zealand, science played a crucial role in legitimising government and increasing its role in society.86 the liberal government created, and later expanded, new departments like those of labour, education, health and agriculture, coming to direct small but growing coteries of scientists and bureaucrats that ultimately culminated in the creation of the department of scientific and industrial research in 1926.87 in contrast to the growing department of agriculture, attempts throughout the nineteenth century to establish forestry as a professional, state supported discipline in new zealand failed, largely because of the overwhelming emphasis placed upon agricultural development. lack of scientific credibility and government unwillingness to interfere overly in society also played a part. new zealand’s appointment of a biologist as ‘conservator of forests’ in 1885, for instance, elicited criticism from a visiting representative of the apogee of professional, scientific state forestry, the indian forestry service (ifs): ‘the colonists have no one who really understands what forestry is, or how extensive forest areas should be managed.’ 88 gradually, forestry lobbyists in new zealand dropped the forest-climate link, realising that this did not help their claims to scientific and professional legitimacy. in doing this, it reflected the new popularity of us models, where previously they mainly looked to european and south asian examples. us engineers and meteorologists questioned the scientific legitimacy of the forests-rainfall arguments put forward by foresters. in response, foresters dropped the forest-climate argument because it appeared to rest on dubious, unproven scientific claims. association with it did their prospects of increased government support no good.89 instead, in the early twentieth century united states forestry service (usfs) officials ‘invoked the authority of science’ to play up the woeful consequences of deforestation on flooding and soil erosion, deliberately embarking ‘on a crusade to convert the country to conservation’.90 they deliberately shied away from climatic arguments because it proved impossible to gain accurate scientific data on the connection between forests and rainfall or temperature change. this aligned with experience elsewhere, most notably in australia.91 new zealand scientists relied on us examples of soil erosion science, as well as ecological and aesthetic arguments tailored to images of new zealand’s growing national identity: these influences, added to the background of a new generation of scientists with a strong grounding in soil sciences and ecology, contributed to the shift away from climatic arguments. the us reliance was clearly illustrated in new zealand’s 1913 royal commission on forestry.92 dr. c.a. cotton praised the american work, denudation and erosion in the southern appalachian region and the monongahela basin, 1911 as ‘of special value because it contains a very careful study of the results of reckless clearing in a climate which appears to be very similar to ours.’93 the report also referenced other international research: professor i. bowman’s physiography of the united states, and principles of soil in relation to forestry (1911); copenhagen professor, eugenius warming’s oecology of plants (1909); and dr. b.e. fernow’s economics of forestry (1902).94 compared to earlier scientifically untrained advocates of the forests-climate connection, cotton and pioneer ecologist leonard cockayne both had a strong grounding in sciences which emphasised local-scale environmental change. cotton read for a msc in geology from the university of otago and, after a spell in mining, was appointed to the first lecturership in geology at victoria university college, wellington (later, victoria university of wellington).95 research into geomorphology emphasised the importance of study of landforms and processes, and this, combined with a strong scientific education (he was awarded a dsc in beattie, climate change, forest conservation and science 12 1915) meant that unlike the amateurs who advocated the climate-forests link, cotton would not support scientifically unsound theories. cockayne, although self-taught, became a leading advocate of ecology in new zealand and relied on sound scientific experiments to conduct surveys into environmental processes, both perspectives which did not favour the forestsclimate link.96 meteorology in new zealand was also much weaker than in the us, forming a different set of social and political circumstances under which science took place, differences which reinforce david livingstone’s assertion that locality profoundly affects the meaning and reception of science.97 in the us criticism of the forest-climate link from meteorologists and engineers discredited the theory, forcing foresters to drop it entirely. in contrast to the us, in new zealand state meteorology was underdeveloped and struggled for funding for much of the nineteenth century and into the early decades of the twentieth. staff of the new zealand meteorological service (nzms, 1906-1992), including its director, rev. d.c. bates (director, 1909-1927), were not scientifically-trained meteorologists. as historian j.f. de lisle observes, until the appointment of bates' successor, dr. edward kidson, a trained meteorologist, in 1927, ‘the science was very much in its infancy’ with ‘[t]he resources available in the struggling and often impecunious new colony’ only ‘able to provide for only the most rudimentary meteorological services.’98 the nzms was therefore decades behind the us, having still to build up more rigorous instrumentation and forecasting methods and justify its usefulness to the state. on occasion new zealand’s meteorologists in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries even supported the idea that trees could influence local climatic conditions. although holding that elevation and latitude, prevalent winds and mountains, ground slope and soil character and proximity to sea influenced rainfall distribution in new zealand, meteorologist john meeson in 1890 noted that both forests and cultivation had localised effects on climate.99 ‘[d]ense neighbouring woods’, he observed, ‘will diminish local temperature, and so, to some extent, attract rain.’ blenheim settlers, he continued, ‘attributed [the slight increase in blenheim’s rain] – rightly or wrongly – to increased cultivation and arboriculture.’100 in 1907, bates recommended tree planting to increase rainfall in droughty north otago. rather than critiquing forest-climate ideas, new zealand meteorologists used opportunities such as rainmaking activities to enhance their authority and draw up boundaries between science and non-science.101 the process of professionalisation in meteorology took place much earlier in the us than in new zealand. new zealand’s meteorology bureau relied upon non-scientifically trained staff, which perhaps explains the latter’s continuing support of the forest-climate connection, a position only really maintained by non-professional groups. significantly, when in the early 1920s new zealand created its state forests service (sfs), a professional north american trained forester took over the position. forestry’s aim became to ensure regular supply of timber and prevent soil erosion and flooding.102 conclusion in response to overseas arguments and in light of increasing deforestation, climatic anxieties emerged in new zealand in the 1860s. over that century several scientists, engineers and politicians drew attention to the perceived or likely impact of deforestation. unregulated felling, they argued, variously resulted in rainfall and temperature change, timber scarcity and flooding. unless prevented through state forest management, climate change and altered hydrological regimes threatened to bring terrifying cycles of drought and flooding. contestations over the meaning of science exhibited through forest-climate debates in new zealand from the 1860s to the 1920s evince the importance of scientific methods in supporting a group’s claims to authority. for some, climate-forest science meant government history of meteorology 5 (2009) 13 should increase its role in society and establish state forest conservation. others challenged such claims to scientific authority, questioning the methodology and use of measurement. both proponents – and detractors – of the forest-climate connection invoked the language and methodology of science to press their claims to authority. in the 1870s, for instance, some politicians questioned the climate-forests idea. it was, they charged, based on anecdote and observation, not hard, observable scientific fact. to rebuke such criticism, new zealand’s recently appointed conservator of forests attempted to measure the impact of increased deforestation on rainfall, but without success. in the early twentieth century the forest conservation lobby in new zealand turned to american forestry precedents, discarding its reliance on the forest-climate connection to press for government intervention on the basis of stronger scientific evidence of timber depletion and soil erosion. in america, meteorologists and engineers successfully discredited the forest-climate connection put forward by foresters. they pointed out its unscientific evidence and reliance on historical examples and unsubstantiated observation instead of scientific data and experimentation. now associated with non-science, scientifically-trained forest supporters dropped the forest-climate theory in favour of the hydrological impact of deforestation, a theory that they could more easily support scientifically. reinforced by growing ecological ideas that favoured preservation of indigenous nature as central to national identity, lobbyists for new zealand state conservation also followed us models and precedents in arguing for the hydrological impact of forests. if the example of colonial forestry in new zealand emphasises the importance of overseas and local models in initiating state conservation, it also evinces the equally significant role of boundary disputes over science in framing conservation arguments. beattie, climate change, forest conservation and science 14 1 i thank the generous comments by james fleming and ondine godtschalk in improving this paper, along with the extremely helpful suggestions by the journal’s anonymous referees. 2 james beattie is senior lecturer, department of history, university of waikato: jbeattie@waikato.ac.nz. he has published over thirty articles and chapters on asian and australasian environmental history, garden history, medical history and history of science. he is the editor of 蘭園 lan yuan the garden of enlightenment: essays on the intellectual, cultural, and architectural background to the dunedin chinese garden (2008). his monograph examining colonial environmental and health connections between south asia, australia and new zealand, empire and environmental anxiety, 1800-1920, is to be published in 2010 by palgrave macmillan. current book projects include an australasian garden history; the collection of asian objects and plants in colonial new zealand (with duncan campbell); a proposed edited book on nineteenth century views of nature. 3 john ward, information relative to new-zealand for the use of colonists (london: smith, elder & co., 1839), p.10. 4 john angas, polynesia: a popular description of the physical features, inhabitants, natural history, and productions of the lands of the pacific… (christchurch: capper press, reprint, 1973), p.131. 5 don garden, ‘el niño, irrigation dams and stock banks: examining the repercussions of the 1876-78 el niño in australia and new zealand’, history of meteorology, 4, (2008), pp.1-26. note, too, emily o’gorman, ‘colonial meteorologists and australia’s variable weather’, university of queensland historical proceedings, 16, (2005), pp.67-87. 6 new zealand farmer (henceforth, nzf), 32, 10 (october, 1911), p.1175. 7 on this vast literature, note: richard h. grove, ecology, climate and empire: colonialism and global environmental history, 1400-1940 (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1997); clarence glacken, traces on the rhodian shore: nature and culture in western thought from ancient times to the end of the eighteenth century (berkeley: university of california press, 1967); jane costlow, ‘imaginations of destruction: the “forest question” in nineteenth-century russian culture’, russian review, 62, (january, 2003), pp.91-118; charles a. kutzler, ‘american myth: can forests bring rain to the plains’, journal of forest history, 15, (october, 1971), pp.14-21; d.w. meinig, on the margins of the good earth: the south australian wheat frontier, 1869-1884 (chicago: rand mcnally and company, 1962). 8 pawson and brooking, eds., environmental histories. 9 gordon mclauchlan, the farming of new zealand: the people and the land (auckland: viking, 2006); james belich, making peoples: a history of the new zealanders from polynesian settlement to the end of the nineteenth century (auckland: allan lane & penguin, 1996). 10 michael j. bradshaw, earth: the living planet (london: hodder and stoughton, 1977), p .84. 11 charles dilke, travellers’ tales of early australia & new zealand: greater britain, charles dilke visits her new lands, 1866 & 1867, ed. geoffrey blainey (north ryde [n.s.w.]: methuen haynes, 1985 [1868]), pp.76-77. 12 belich, making peoples. 13 mark harrison, climates and constitutions: health, race, environment and british imperialism in india, 1600-1850 (new delhi: oxford university press, 1999). 14 yate, cited in scheme of the colony of the free church at otago new zealand (glasgow: scottish guardian office, 1845), pp. 18-19. 15 william swainson, observations on the climate of new zealand… (london: smith, elder and co., 1840), p.56. 16 belich, making peoples, p.300. 17 linda bryder, ‘“a health resort for consumptives”: tuberculosis and immigration to new zealand, 1880-1914’, medical history, 40, (1996), pp.459-464. 18 john delumeau, history of paradise: the garden of eden in myth and tradition, trans. matthew o’connell (new york: continuum, 1995), p.6. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 15 19 david. j. herlihy, ‘attitudes toward the environment in medieval society’, in lester j. bilsky, ed., historical ecology: essays on environment and social change (port washington, n.y.: kennikat press, 1980), p.103. 20 keith thomas, man and the natural world: a history of the modern sensibility (oxford: oxford university press, 1983), pp.17-20. 21 john locke, ‘the second treatise of civil government’, chapter v, verse 27, cited in henry reynolds, the law of the land, 2nd ed. (ringwood: penguin, 1992), p. 25. 22 richard harry drayton, nature’s government: science, imperial britain, and the ‘improvement’ of the world (new haven: yale university press, 2000). 23 james beattie and john stenhouse, ‘empire, environment and religion: god and nature in nineteenth-century new zealand’, environment and history, 13, 4 (november, 2007), pp.413-446. 24 ernst dieffenbach, travels in new zealand with contributions to the geography, geology, botany, and natural history of that country, vol. 1 (christchurch: capper press, reprint, 1976 [1843]), pp. 367-368. 25 ferdinand von hochstetter, new zealand: its physical geography, geology and natural history with special reference to the results of government expeditions in the provinces of auckland and nelson, trans. by edward sauter (stuttgart: j.g. cotta, 1867), pp. 142, 255-254. 26 see, michael bagge, ‘the ambivalence of gorse in new zealand 1835-1900’ (b.a. hons. dissertation: university of otago, 2000); neil clayton, ‘settlers, politicians & scientists: environmental anxiety in a new zealand colony (b.a. hons. dissertation: university of otago, 1998); beattie, ‘conservation and science in southern new zealand: a reconsideration’, draft ms. 27 beattie, empire and environmental anxiety. 28 beattie, ‘environmental anxiety in new zealand, 1840-1941: climate change, soil erosion, sand drift, flooding and forest conservation’, environment and history, 9, 4 (2003), pp.379-392 29 new zealand parliamentary debates (henceforth, nzpd), 1 october, 1873, pp.1545-1546. 30 roche, history of forestry (wellington: government print, 1990), p.84. 31 m.m. roche, forest policy in new zealand: an historical geography, 1840-1919 (palmerston north: dunmore press, 1987), p.78. 32 ‘papers relating to state forests, their conservation, planting, management, &c.’, appendices and journals to the house of representatives (henceforth, ajhr), h-5, vol. 2, 1874, pp.18, 30-32. 33 34 out of a total of 78 members spoke. roche, history of forestry, p.86. 34 m.m. roche, history of forestry, wellington, 1990, p.86. 35 see graeme wynn, ‘conservation and society in late nineteenth-century new zealand’, new zealand journal of history, 11, 2 (october, 1977), pp.130-4. as bryce put it succinctly, ‘i said we should let the people alone.’ nzpd, 31 july, 1874, p.367. 36 calculated from nzpd, 14 july, 1874, pp.79-94; 31 july, pp.350-381; 4 august, pp.399426. 37 see, for instance, rolleston, nzpd, 4 august, 1874, pp.404-405. 38 nzpd, 14 july, 1874, p.79. 39 paul star, ‘the place of native forest in new zealand’s mental landscape’, in john dargavel and brenda libbis, eds., australia’s ever-changing forests iv: proceedings of the fourth national conference on australian forest history, canberra, 1999, p.94. 40 on this, note wynn, ‘destruction under the guise of improvement? the forest, 1840-1920’, in environmental histories, p. 114; vogel, nzpd, 14 july, p. 80. 41 nzpd, 4 august, p. 424. 42 o’neill, nzpd, 31 july, p.356. 43 stafford, nzpd, 31 july, p.365. 44 see, beattie, 'tropical asia and temperate new zealand: health and conservation connections, 1840-1920', in brian moloughney and henry johnson, eds., asia in making of new zealand (auckland: auckland university press, 2007), pp.36-57. 45 luckie, nzpd, 4 august, pp.409-410. 46 nzpd, 4 august 1874, p.403. 47 nzpd, 31 july 1874, p.374. beattie, climate change, forest conservation and science 16 48 johnston, nzpd, 4 august 1874, p.408. 49 andrew, nzpd, 4 august 1874, p.412. 50 scott, seeing like a state. 51 david livingstone, putting science in its place: geographies of scientific knowledge (chicago and london: university of chicago press), p.128. 52 some of the many studies on this topic and the relationship between state and science include: tore frängsmyr, j.l. heilbron, and robin e. rider, eds., the quantifying spirit of the 18th century (berkeley: university of california press, 1990); alison bashford, ‘epidemic and governmentality: smallpox in sydney, 1881’, critical public health, 9, 4 (1999), pp. 301-316; nicholaas a. rupke, ed., medical geography in historical perspective (london: wellcome trust centre for the history of medicine at ucl, 2000). 53 james c. scott, seeing like a state: how certain schemes to improve the human condition have failed (new haven and london: yale university press, 1998); as a sophisticated examination of the local-focussed nature of scientific endeavour, note livingstone’s fascinating study: putting science in its place. 54 reading the skies: a cultural history of english weather, 1650-1820 (manchester: manchester university press, 2000), p. 161. 55 thomas f. gieryn, cultural boundaries of science: credibility on the line (chicago: university of chicago press, 1999), p. xii. 56 james r. fleming, meteorology in america, 1800-1870 (baltimore: johns hopkins, 1990), pp.128-9, 174. on ideas of landscape meteorology in the us, see kenneth thompson, ‘forests and climate change in america: some early views’, climatic change, 3, (1980), pp.47-64; ‘the question of climatic stability in america before 1900’, climatic change, 3, (1980), pp.227-241. 57 michael roche, history of forests (wellington: government printer, 1990), p.87. 58 campbell walker, ‘report of the conservator of state forests’, ajhr, c3, vol. 1, 1877, pp.12-49; ‘state forestry: its aim and object’, transactions and proceedings of the new zealand institute (henceforth, tpnzi), 9, (1876), pp.187-203; ‘the climatic and financial aspect of forest conservancy as applicable to new zealand’, tpnzi, 9, (1876), pp.xxvii-xlix. 59 walker, ‘climatic and financial’, p.xxxix. 60 ibid., pp.xxviii-xxix. 61 walker, ‘report’, p.49. 62 satpal sangwan, ‘making of a popular debate: the indian forester and the emerging agenda of state forestry in india, 1875-1904’, indian economic and social history review, 36, 2 (1999), p.198. 63 campbell walker, ‘the climatic and financial aspects’, p.xxxviii. 64 campbell walker, ‘the climatic and financial aspects’, p.xxxix. 65 ‘influence of forests on climate and rainfall’, tpnzi, 12, (1879), pp.24-32; on the influence of forests on climate and rainfall. 66 s. peppercorne, ‘influence of forests on climate and rainfall’, pp.24-32; on the influence of forests on climate and rainfall, napier, 1880, p.3. 67 peppercorne, ‘influence of forests on climate and rainfall’, p.25. 68 note: aherne, new zealand country journal (nzcj), 6, 6 (november, 1882), pp. 405-8. see also t. a. patrick, ‘encouraging tree planting of farms’, nzcj, 9, 5 (september, 1885), p.410; ‘trees adapted for thin and poor soils and elevated situations’, 7, 4 nzcj (july, 1883), p.336. 69 a. lecoy, ‘the forests question in new zealand’, tpnzi, 12, (1879), 3-23; ‘suggestions on forests in the colony of new zealand’, ajhr, h3, 1880, pp.1-12. 70 nzpd, 7 june 1882, pp.316-317. 71 nzpd, 7 june 1882, p.317. 72 nzpd, 7 june 1882, p.317. 73 nzpd, 1 august, vol.45, 1883, pp.212-213. 74 these were barnicoat, g.r. johnson, mathew holmes (otago), and william hugh nurse (otago) and james williamson (auckland). 75 nzpd, 1 august 1883, vol.45, p.214. 76 nzpd, 1 august 1883, vol.45, p.218. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 17 77 nzpd, 1 august 1883, vol.45, p.215. 78 j.c. richmond, 1 august 1883, vol.45, p.218. 79 nzpd, 1 august 1883, vol.45, pp.215-216. 80 t.h. kirk, ‘progress report of the state forests department’, ajhr, c3d, vol. 1, 1886, p.3. 81 two mhrs did discuss climatic conservation. george beetham, wairarapa north mhr, denied that forest clearance had caused a drier climate: beetham thought that the converse, in fact, had occurred despite significant deforestation in the north island. george beetham, nzpd, 26 june, 1885, p.206. new zealand’s former governor, sir george grey, summarised the bill as ‘necessary for climatic reasons’ and for future timber supplies. sir george grey, nzpd, 7 july, 1885, p.448. 82 brown, forestry era, p.12. 83 ‘state forests act amendment, 1888’, the statutes of new zealand, wellington, 1888, pp.71-72. 84 roche, history of forestry, p.137. see also brooking, brooking, tom, lands for the people? the highland clearances and the colonisation of new zealand: a biography of john mckenzie by tom brooking, dunedin, 1996, pp.176-178. 85 beattie, ‘environmental anxiety’. 86 m.e. hoare, ‘the relationship between government and science in australia and new zealand’, journal of the royal society of new zealand, 6, 3 (1976), pp.381-394; a. hunter dupree, science in the federal government: a history of policies and activities (baltimore and london: johns hopkins university, 1986). 87 ross galbreath, dsir: making science work for new zealand…(wellington: victoria university press, 1998); tony nightingale, white collars and gumboots: a history of the ministry of agriculture and fisheries, 1892-1992 (palmerston north: dunmore press, 1992); derek a. dow, safeguarding the public health: a history of the new zealand department of health (wellington: victoria university press; ministry of health; historical branch, department of internal affairs, 1995). 88 ‘three months’ privilege leave to new zealand’, indian forester, 12, (december, 1886), pp. 560, 557. 89 schiff, fire and water. 90 ashley l. schiff, fire and water: scientific heresy in the forest service (cambridge, mass.: cambridge university press, 1962), pp. 165, 4-5. on us meteorology, see fleming, meteorology in america. 91 beattie, empire and environmental anxiety. 92 ajhr, c12, 1913, pp.1-87. 93 cotton, ‘report of the royal commission’, p. 82. 94 ‘report of the royal commission’, p. xiv. 95 g. r. stevens, ‘cotton, charles andrew 1885 – 1970’, dictionary of new zealand biography, updated 22 june 2007: url: http://www.dnzb.govt.nz/ 96 on cockayne, see paul star, ‘ecology: a science of nation? the utilization of plant ecology in new zealand, 1896-1930’, historical records of australian science, 17, 2 (2006), pp. 197-207. 97 livingstone, putting science in its place. 98 j.f. de lisle, ‘the new zealand meteorological service – the beginnings, 1861-1927’, in m.e. hoare and l.g. bell, eds., in search of new zealand’s scientific heritage (wellington: royal society of new zealand and alexander turnbull library, 1984), p.17. 99 john t. meeson, ‘the rainfall of new zealand’, tpnzi, 23, (1890), pp. 546-569. 100 meeson, ‘the rainfall of new zealand’, p.553. 101 beattie, ‘rethinking science, religion and nature in environmental history: drought in early twentieth-century new zealand’, historical social research/historische sozialforschung, 29, 3 (november, 2004), pp.82-103; matt henry, ‘trans-tasman meteorology and the production of a tasman airspace, 1920-1940’, ennz: environment and nature in new zealand, 4, 1 (april, 2009), pp.14-36; n.g. robertson, ‘the organization and development of weather observation in new beattie, climate change, forest conservation and science 18 zealand’, in new zealand weather and climate, ed. by b.j. garnier (no place: new zealand geographical society, 1950), pp.7-25. 102 roche, history of forestry, pp.175-265. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 1 weather and climate as shape-shifting nouns: gordian knots of understanding and prevision james rodger fleming jfleming@colby.edu colby college “[technology] is cutting the gordian knot instead of untying it” — carl-gustaf rossby 1 “why should nearly perfect forecasts be unattainable?” — chaos” — edward n. lorenz 2 “climate” deserves to be a keyword in the vocabulary of culture and society. it is arguably one of the most linguistically complicated words — a historically shape-shifting noun — whose meaning has changed and is changing, perhaps faster than the climate itself. its nature, history, and vicissitudes are key concepts organizing our ideas of the aerial environment and our relationship to it. 3 although climate can be depicted and modeled, it cannot be directly visualized or forecast. the relationships of climate to meteorology and meteorology to climate studies are also dynamic. this article reviews the changing nature of ideas about climate over an extended time period, with special focus on developments in dynamic meteorology and dynamic climatology in the period 1900-1960, and with an update for the twenty-first century based on the implications of chaos theory. it adds a temporal dimension to the science and philosophy of weather prediction and climate change and the ways we think about the interrelationships of weather and climate. it may be a truism for historians that anything that can be named had different meanings in different eras, but some philosophers, with notable exceptions, have overlooked this. 4 when doing epistemology, it is important to think about the history of 1 c.-g. rossby, “current problems in meteorology,” the atmosphere and the sea in motion: scientific contributions to the rossby memorial volume, bert bolin, ed. (stockholm: rockefeller institute press and oxford university press, 1959), 9-50, quoted on 36. 2 undated lecture transparency in the papers of edward n. lorenz, u.s library of congress, manuscript division. 3 j.r. fleming, “climate, change, history,” environment and history 20 (2014): 577-586. 4 nietzsche and whitehead are notable exceptions; see “epistemology” in the internet encyclopedia of philosophy, http://www.iep.utm.edu/epistemo/ mailto:jfleming@colby.edu history of meteorology 7 (2015) 2 the objects under discussion and how the meaning of terms has changed. as mike hulme has written recently, “like all powerful ideas, climate change can be deceptively simple to define and yet subject to a multiplicity of cultural meanings and technical interpretations.” it is important to clarify the historical context and to think about what we are thinking about when we use terms such as climate, climate change, meteorology, dynamics, and models. 5 apprehension and authority in historical perspectives on climate change (1998), i examined climate and climatic changes from the enlightenment to the late-twentieth century, asking the following questions, among others: “how do people (scientists included) gain awareness and understanding of phenomena that cover the entire globe, and that are constantly changing on time scales ranging from geological eras and centuries to decades, years, and seasons?” “how was this accomplished by individuals immersed in and surrounded by the phenomena?” and, “how were privileged positions created and defined?” 6 since atmospheric scientists lack the ability to observe the climate system in its entirety (as an astronomer might view a star or planet) or to experiment on it directly (as a chemist might view a reaction), the pathways to the many and varied scientific understandings of climate are not at all straightforward; vexed too are the interrelations between elite and popular perceptions of the environment. there are three major definitions of the term apprehension that can be applied to climate: (1) awareness and understanding, (2) anticipation and dread, (3) intervention and control. climate is an elusive entity. it is more than the average condition of the atmosphere compiled from weather statistics; it is something much more fundamental than that: it is lived experience providing frameworks for the material possibilities of life, inseparable from the temporality and specificity of the social world. collectively, climate shapes life in specific places in fundamental and dramatic ways; it is woven into the fabric of the human past and future; both the experience and knowledge of climate is shaped by and enframed in our lifestyles, our seasonality, our clothing and housing, our aspirations and our tragedies. climate involves themes of dominant empires, colonial pride and pioneer mentalities; popular, religious and racial sentiments; imposed and imported ideologies; and resilience to extreme conditions of flood and drought as embodied in agricultural and technological practices. climate is both intimate and universal, involving local experiences of global change. 7 its influences are as proximate, 5 mike hulme, “climate change (concept of),” international encyclopedia of geography editor-in-chief douglas richardson (hoboken, nj: wiley-blackwell/association of american geographers, 2015). j.r. fleming, “historical perspectives on shape-shifting nouns: climate, dynamics, models.” invited talk for models and knowledge in climate sciences: historical, scientific and philosophical perspectives, rotman institute of philosophy annual conference, london, ontario, canada, oct. 2014, http://www.rotman.uwo.ca/new-video-posted-james-fleming-dynamic-climatology-historical-perspectiveson-shape-shifting-nouns 6 j.r. fleming, historical perspectives on climate change (new york: oxford university press, 1998, 2005). 7 intimate universality: local and global themes in the history of weather and climate, james rodger fleming, vladimir jankovic, and deborah r. coen, eds. (sagamore beach, ma: science history http://www.rotman.uwo.ca/new-video-posted-james-fleming-dynamic-climatology-historical-perspectives-on-shape-shifting-nouns http://www.rotman.uwo.ca/new-video-posted-james-fleming-dynamic-climatology-historical-perspectives-on-shape-shifting-nouns history of meteorology 7 (2015) 3 and personal, as a breath of fresh air, a drink of local water, or an attachment to place. its vicissitudes are increasingly associated with collectively held apprehensions (fears really) of the destructive reach of global civilization on the planet. 8 how then were privileged positions on such an elusive entity established? one approach, popular in the eighteenth century, was through appeals to authority— references to culture, to historical literature, to first impressions of explorers, or to the memory of the elderly [see fenby, this volume]. this was the rhetorical strategy of enlightenment and early-american writers who wanted to support a particular theory of cultural development or decline. in réflexions critiques sur la poësie et sur la peinture (1719), abbé du bos examined the causes of the rise and fall of the so-called illustrious ages in the arts and sciences, attributing them primarily to changes in les causes physiques (the nature of the air, land, soil and especially climate). many enlightenment era authors followed this lead, including the baron montesquieu and thomas jefferson, who attributed climatic change in europe and america to human settlement, including forest clearing, marsh drainage and cultivation. 9 also in vogue was the practice of collecting massive amounts of meteorological data over large areas and extended time periods in the hope of deducing climatic patterns and changes [see munger, this volume]. individual observers in particular locales dutifully tended to their journals, and networks of cooperative observers gradually extended the meteorological frontiers. beginning in earnest in the nineteenth century, scientists tabulated, charted, mapped, and analyzed observations to provide climatic inscriptions. this process profoundly changed climate discourse and established the foundations of the science of climatology. climates were seen as stable, to be described by geographers and studied by statisticians. the noted austrian climatologist julius hann wrote in 1897 that climate is “the sum total of the meteorological phenomena that characterize the average condition of the atmosphere at any one place on the earth’s surface.” 10 this became the dominant working definition, still invoked today. a third approach to privileged knowledge was to establish from first principles what the climate ought to be and how it ought to change. approaches drawn from physical, mathematical, geological, and astronomical evidence and principles tended to be most satisfying to those scientists working within a particular disciplinary perspective. most scientists had one favorite causal mechanism and only grudgingly admitted other possible secondary causes of climate change [see articles by ellingsen and lehmann, this volume]. in the mid-twentieth century tor bergeron, an acolyte of the bergen school of meteorology, defined a “dynamic climatology,” which supplemented statistical means with detailed explanations of air masses, fronts and other thermodynamic factors influencing the climate. according to bergeron, climatology had been essentially the systematic compiling of statistics on the individual meteorological elements, without an organized attempt to get at the underlying dynamic or thermodynamic phenomena in their entirety. since descriptive climatology offered no unifying picture of the prime publications/usa, 2006); osiris 26, klima. james rodger fleming and vladimir jankovic, eds. (chicago: university of chicago press, 2011). 8 naomi oreskes and erik m. conway, the collapse of western civilization: a view from the future (new york: columbia university press, 2014). 9 fleming, historical perspectives. 10 julius hann, handbook of climatology, trans. r. dec. ward (new york: 1903), 1. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 4 thermodynamic forces controlling the climate, bergeron applied concepts of air masses and fronts to outline a comprehensive dynamic climatology explaining how the several complete thermodynamic units, rather than the unrelated distribution of the individual meteorological elements, control the climate of a region. an older, static climatology may say how much it rained in a given year; dynamic climatology would say when, where, and why it rained. 11 another approach to privileged climate knowledge has been through technology. in part with the invention and standardization of meteorological instruments and the networking of meteorological observers, but more recently in the explosive growth of transformative technologies of communication and aerospace in the twentieth century, weather and climate observations have been rendered both global and three dimensional. a number of transformative technologies — including radar, nuclear tracers, digital computers, sounding rockets, and weather satellites — fostered the emergence of the interdisciplinary atmospheric sciences after world war ii. scientists working with computers in meteorology at the time demeaned the older, descriptive and statistical forms of geography as hardly constituting a physical science. today many scientists working at the interface of remote sensing and modeling are hoping, through advances in technology, to provide new privileged positions. for most scientists the goal is better understanding of climate; for some it is also prediction and control. lest we overlook the applied dimensions, in the 1960s, climatologist helmut landsberg described what he called “techno-climatology” as comprising the influences of climate on the infrastructure of modern life, both in the quotidian sense, but also in the applicability of climatic information to engineering and city planning and the effects of climate on commerce and industry [see articles by janković and vollset, this volume]. . 12 by including industry, landsberg raised the possibility of combining the history of natural and artificial environments, through case studies of climate, climate modification, and climate control as it affects storage, warehousing and the efficiency, health, and safety of workers. climate is bigger than any single journal, book or even disciplinary approach. its history draws in part on the histories of particular sciences such as astronomy, chemistry, computer science, geography, geology, meteorology, paleontology, and physics; and in part from much broader historical currents. historians with particular disciplinary interests have examined all of these fields before, at least to some extent. with global climatic change as the new focus, however, a new interdisciplinary picture begins to emerge that includes both elite and popular apprehensions. coming full circle, modelers increasingly are appealing to the authority and consensus being generated by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc). in reality, however, climatologists sense that they have lost control of a subject they never fully mastered: the grand global narrative of scientific rationality wedded to human behavior, technological solutions, and policy innovations. new voices, untrained in the nuances of the atmospheric sciences, from the press, the public, the state, the environmental movement, have flooded the literature, adding polarizing voices, while venerable but vulnerable practices of peer review and journal publication have taken back seats to the new electronically facilitated 11 tor bergeron, "richtlinien einer dynamischen klimatologie,” meteorologische zeitschrift 47 (1930): 246-262. 12 helmut landsberg, physical climatology, 2 nd ed. (du bois, penna.: gray, 1964), 389. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 5 ‘peer-to-peer’ review and ubiquitous blogs, tweets and quacks. just as the world turns to crucial questions of what is to be done, it appears certain that the climatologists have lost voice, ownership, authority, status – and in many cases their innocence, patience and even their tempers, while others, ever more strident, speak for them, ever more shrilly. skeptics (a venerable position in philosophy and science) hold that we do not know as much as we think we do about climate, especially regarding the sensitivity of the climate to carbon dioxide, while so-called “deniers” (a form of name-calling), maintain that we should do nothing about climate change. climate interventionists, on the other hand, propose to control weather systems and ‘fix’ the climate with heavy-handed technologies: seed the clouds to create or dissipate rain on demand, launch a fleet of space mirrors, pump sulfates into the stratosphere to cool the planet, capture the world’s carbon emissions and sequester them safely and economically for thousands of years. as the climate changes ever so slightly (perhaps more next decade according to the ipcc?), economies stumble and mitigation plans move ahead haltingly, if at all. the current consensus on global climate change calls into question the trajectory of modern civilization: will it empower or perhaps overthrow the status quo? or are climate and climate change shape-shifting nouns? such ideas might sound like science fiction, but in fact they are part of a very old story rooted in human apprehensions and aspirations to control nature. 13 models models too are shape-shifting nouns. consider the ancient explanation of the solidness of a material proposed by the greek philosopher democritus: “the solidness of a material corresponds to the shape of the atoms involved. water atoms are smooth and slippery; salt atoms are sharp and pointed; air atoms are light and whirling.” according to the epistemology of shape-shifting nouns, “we, in actuality, grasp nothing for certain.” 14 a digital computer is, in reality, just a really big and fast calculating machine, not a “model” itself, but a useful tool. in the late 1940s c.-g. rossby, jule charney and their associates articulated the simplified differential equations of upper atmospheric flow and expressed them as finite difference equations suitable for machine calculation. this involved replacing the time and space derivatives with differences of finite magnitude, for example, one-hour time increments and 300-kilometer horizontal grid spacing. the meteorological problem then consisted of programing the computer to compute the change of the state of the atmosphere, hour after hour, in the system so defined. with a computer fast enough to complete these calculations in less than one hour, the expected changes can be added to the originally observed values to generate, via an iterative or “bootstrapping method,” a 12or 24-hour or longer prognosis. this was in fact the method used in routine numerical weather prediction services, available, at least for the upper atmosphere, since 1954 in the united states and, to a limited extent, in sweden. the next logical and tractable step at the time consisted in integrating the atmospheric equations for a dynamic, moist, heated atmosphere forever — the so-called “infinite 13 j.r. fleming, fixing the sky: the checkered history of weather and climate control (new york: columbia university press, 2010). 14 jerry coffey, “democritus atom,” universe today, http://www.universetoday.com/60058/democritusatom http://www.universetoday.com/60058/democritus-atom http://www.universetoday.com/60058/democritus-atom history of meteorology 7 (2015) 6 forecast” — proposed by john von neumann, jule charney, and harry wexler — and first attempted by norman phillips. the result was not a forecast or a prediction of particular weather conditions, but a limiting case converging on the statistical features of the general circulation, independently of whatever initial conditions may have existed. this is not a forecast in the usual sense, but a model test. modern climate models, with secularly changing boundary conditions, are distant (very distant) cousins of this process. some may wonder how weather and climate are interrelated rather than distinct. both, for example, are at the center of the debate over greenhouse warming and hurricane intensity. a few may claim that rainmaking, for example, has nothing to do with climate engineering, but any intervention in the earth’s radiation or heat budget (such as managing solar radiation) would affect the general circulation and thus the location of upper-level patterns, including the jet stream and storm tracks. thus the weather itself would be changed by such manipulation. conversely, intervening in severe storms by changing their intensity or their tracks, or modifying weather on a scale as large as a region, a continent, or the pacific basin would obviously affect cloudiness, temperature, and precipitation patterns, with major consequences for monsoonal flows and ultimately the general circulation. if repeated systematically, such interventions would influence the overall heat budget and the climate. in such a perturbation analysis, weather and climate are distinctly interrelated. the gordian knot atmospheric researchers have long attempted to untie the gordian knot of meteorology — that intractable and intertwined tangle of observational imprecision, theoretical uncertainties, and non-linear influences — that, if unravelled, would provide perfect prevision of the weather for ten days, of seasonal conditions for the next year, and of climatic conditions for a decade, a century, a millennium, or longer. in the first six decades of the twentieth century, from the dawn of applied fluid dynamics to the emergence of the interdisciplinary atmospheric sciences, three interconnected generations of scientists aimed to extend and improve atmospheric measurements and to predict the future state of the atmosphere. in the first decade of the twentieth century, researchers pinned their hopes on wireless telegraphy and the dawning of the aerial age. several decades later, radio, aviation, rockets, digital computing, and earth-orbiting satellites had opened up entirely new research horizons. each generation of atmospheric researchers aspired to a more global meteorology, zealously incorporating capabilities provided by new technologies into their science as they worked to link theory with practice. each generation experienced, in their own ways, the heady feeling that they were the direct beneficiaries of new technological breakthroughs and that they stood on the brink of a major revolution in the science and practice of meteorology. their goal was to produce accurate information about the state of the entire atmosphere, complete mathematical portrayals of its varied and changing states, and useful and timely forecasts of its near and long-term future. their soaring aspirations faced a multiplicity of crushing practical limitations exacerbated by war, bureaucracy, economic downturns, prejudice, and technological limitations. 15 15 j.r. fleming, inventing atmospheric science (cambridge, mass.: mit press, 2016). history of meteorology 7 (2015) 7 in 1895 cleveland abbe, éminence grise of american meteorologists and editor and translator of several volumes of geophysical papers, pointed out that meteorology needed a deductive treatise on the laws governing the atmosphere as complete and rigorous as the celestial mechanics of laplace: meteorologists can never be satisfied until they have a deeper insight into the mechanics of the atmosphere. something more is needed than the most perfect organization for observing, reporting and publishing the latest news from the atmosphere. it is not enough to know what the conditions have been and are, but we must know what they will be, and why so. we must have a deductive treatise on the laws governing the atmosphere as complete and rigorous as the “celestial mechanics”º of laplace, and this will necessarily be a treatise on the application to the atmosphere of the general laws of force, or what is technically known as the dynamics and thermo-dynamics of gases and vapors. 16 note that abbe did not differentiate between weather and climate, but emphasized the laws governing the entire atmosphere. less than a decade later, vilhelm bjerknes (1862-1951) initiated a neo-laplacian program to measure current atmospheric conditions and to calculate the future state of the weather using the equations of hydrodynamics and thermodynamics. he said this in 1902 in the meteorologische zeitschrift: “each task of theoretical mechanics is, when it is placed in direct form, a prognostic, just like the most well-known task of practical meteorology. the goal is to predict the dynamic and physical condition of the atmosphere at a later time, if at an earlier given time, this condition is well known.” 17 according to bjerknes, the central problem of the science of meteorology is weather prediction by rational dynamical-physical methods. he wanted to place meteorology on solid observational and theoretical foundations. in 1904, he published “weather forecasting as a problem in mechanics and physics.” 18 here he stated the problem of weather forecasting as an initial-value problem in mathematics involving the ideal gas law, the first law of thermodynamics, the conservation of mass, and the dynamical equations of an ideal compressible gas. he wrote that the necessary and sufficient conditions for a rational solution of the problem of meteorological prediction include a sufficiently accurate knowledge of the state of the atmosphere at a certain time and a sufficiently accurate knowledge of the laws according to which one state of the atmosphere develops from another. these statements bring together massive programs in observation, theory, and forecasting and are really philosophical statements of faith in rational mechanics, raising the fundamental question of how far we can see into the future. starting from a detailed, if not perfect, set of atmospheric measurements, it should be possible to take a finite, if not perfect, step forward using the time-dependent equations of atmospheric motion. this was the first step, for bjerknes, in unraveling the gordian knot of meteorology. bjerknes’s use of the word sufficiently in these statements tempered his determinism. the term undoubtedly derives from his personal experience in trying to measure, with any precision, the initial state of the atmosphere over an extended area and 16 cleveland abbe, “the needs of meteorology,” science n.s. 1, no. 7 (1895), 181-182. 17 vilhelm bjerknes, “cirkulation relativ zu der erde,” meteorologische zeitschrift 19 (1902): 97-108, on 108. 18 vilhelm bjerknes. “das problem der wettervorhersage, betrachtet vom standpunkte der mechanik und der physik,” meteorologische zeitschrift 21 (1904): 1-7. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 8 from his exposure to the mathematical lectures of henri poincaré in paris. at the time, poincaré (1854-1912) was writing his three-volume les méthodes nouvelles de la mécanique celeste in which he employed analogies with fluid flow to characterize all motions of mechanical systems. in his essay science et méthod, poincaré raised the issue of a computation’s sensitivity to initial conditions and undermined the notion of a perfectly precise observation of nature, noting that, “small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena.” this is now recognized as one of the canons of chaos theory. 19 bjerknes insisted on the necessity of taking measurements in the centimetre-gramsecond (c.g.s.) system and worked to rationalize the analysis of observations. he accepted a call to leipzig in 1913 to establish a geophysical institute. this gave him access to a dense network of upper-air observations. the tragedy and hardships of world war i made conditions insufferable in germany, and in 1917 bjerknes moved to bergen, norway with his family where his group established a network of stations sufficiently dense to identify cold fronts and warm fronts as components of an ideal wave cyclone model. because exact solutions to his system of atmospheric equations were impossible, bjerknes promoted the use of graphical methods including streamline analysis. he founded the bergen school of meteorology in 1919, where graphical methods prevailed. working in concert with his many associates, and with regular funding from the carnegie institution, the bergen school delineated the properties of air masses and described the life history of cyclones developing along the polar front. bjerknes once remarked, "during 50 years meteorologists all over the world had looked at weather maps without discovering their most important features. i only gave the right kind of maps to the right young men, and they soon discovered the wrinkles in the face of weather." 20 if we include the dynamic climatology of tor bergeron, we might also add, “wrinkles in the face of climate.” collectively, bjerknes and his associates championed something larger than themselves, something useful and entirely new, a set of graphical methods to analyze and predict short-term changes in the weather. they worked diligently to spread their theoretical insights internationally, to collect and interpret more and better observations at higher and higher altitudes, and to codify graphical techniques of air mass analysis and weather forecasting for the use of national weather services. further unraveling the knot weather and climate were intimately connected in the work of carl-gustaf rossby (1898-1957), who brought the bergen methods to the united states, developed new methods of collecting atmospheric measurements aloft, and connected geophysical fluid dynamics with the practical needs of aviation and forecasting. rossby established the first commercial airlines weather forecasting system and built the first graduate program in meteorology at m.i.t. in 1928 along with a connection to dynamic oceanographers at 19 henri poincaré, science et méthod (paris: e. flammarion, 1906). 20 robert marc friedman, appropriating the weather: vilhelm bjerknes and the construction of a modern meteorology (ithaca: cornell university press, 1989); tor bergeron, tor, olaf devik, and carl ludvig godske, “vilhelm bjerknes, march 14, 1862 april 9, 1951,” in memory of vilhelm bjerknes on the 100 th anniversary of his birth, a. eliassen and e. hoiland, eds., geofysiske publikasjoner 24 (1962): 7-25, quote from 18. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 9 woods hole in 1930. he supervised the training of literally thousands of aviation cadets during world war ii, developed a general theory of long waves and jet streams in the upper atmosphere, and established the university of chicago school of geophysics and the institute of tropical meteorology at the university of puerto rico. after the war, he placed the american meteorological society on a professional keel by founding the journal of meteorology and, working closely with jule charney, stimulated work on numerical weather prediction at the institute for advanced study. in the final decade of his life, rossby returned to his native sweden, establishing the international meteorological institute in stockholm where he worked on global environmental issues. in his signature contribution, he identified upper-air planetary (or rossby) waves as potential keys to long-range prediction, treating them as idealized cases suitable for computation by digital computers. one of rossby’s first projects in america in the 1920s was the construction of a rotating tank experiment in the basement of the u.s. weather bureau, a model of hemispheric circulation scaled to emulate the large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere. in this he was inspired by helmholtz's hydrodynamical theory of vortex motions, felix exner’s dishpan experiments, and the “principle of similar movements.” 21 rossby’s tank was two meters in diameter, filled with colored fluids of different densities, and rotated three to four times per minute. like the atmosphere, the rotating tank had large horizontal dimension compared to its vertical depth. to a first approximation, it was twodimensional. this was the key to his theoretical approach. although the tank suffered mechanical failure, and his initial attempt to emulate the atmosphere and write nondimensional equations of its motion was inconclusive, this line of research eventually proved fruitful in the late 1940s when dave fultz (1921-2002) at the university of chicago employed a two-layer wave tank to produce experimental results that informed numerical analysis of the large-scale circulations that occur in the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. for rossby, the research frontier was theoretical, and it circulated at the 500millibar level (an altitude of about 5.6 kilometers). the upper-level winds and planetary waves looked and behaved very much like the colored fluids in the wave tank experiments. they had the distinct advantage that, unlike surface weather conditions, the flow at high altitudes was, to a first approximation, frictionless and devoid of the complicating factors of water vapor, clouds, and diurnal heating. that is to say, the equations of motion were rather simple to write and were wellbehaved over longer periods. this provided hope for longer-range forecasts, and, when digital computers first became available, for tractable calculations that could be accomplished faster than the weather was changing; that is to say, for operational numerical weather prediction. in his later years, rossby actively pursued numerical weather prediction in sweden in an era in which there was no swedish word for digital computer. there he supported the first operational numerical forecast in the world generated by the besk computer. he was fully engaged at the cutting edge of research, maintaining a large correspondence network of colleagues and welcoming visitors to the international 21 felix exner, dynamische meteorologie, 2nd ed. (vienna: julius springer, 1925), 341; c.-g. rossby, “on the solution of problems of atmospheric motion by means of model experiments,” monthly weather review 54 (1926): 237–240. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 10 meteorological institute in stockholm. 22 rossby’s work took a global, environmental turn in the mid-1950s as he turned his attention to climate. he fostered new conversations among geoscientists of all stripes: oceanographers, geographers, and geologists. moving onto issues of geophysics and global pollution, he founded the international environmental journal tellus. he was interested in climatic change and variability on all time scales, including the grand cycles of ice ages and interglacials. he spoke increasingly of the atmosphere as a milieu, directly influencing all of human experience and warned of the increasing stress pollution was placing on it. he stood in awe of the atmosphere’s dynamical and chemical complexity and called for an attitude of respect, “for the planet on which we live." he eagerly anticipated the coming breakthrough, “a grand era in meteorology,” when artificial satellites can view the atmosphere from above. "right now, we are like crabs on the ocean floor, he said. “what we need is a view from a satellite. only from a satellite can we see the planetary waves.” 23 his best student, harry wexler, was, just then, in the process of developing such capacity. using technology to cut the gordian knot harry wexler (1911-1962) introduced a number of transformative technologies into meteorological practice, including radar, nuclear tracers, digital computers, sounding rockets, and weather satellites, that helped cut into, if not through, the gordian knot of prevision. this was the legendary “alexandrian solution,” alluded to by rossby in 1956, when he wrote, “technology is cutting the gordian knot instead of untying it.” 24 still, theorists held out hope for more and more accurate measurements and a more perfect model, perhaps driven by large and fast computers. on this foundation, wexler and his many colleagues, notably jule charney, prepared the foundations for the emergence of the interdisciplinary atmospheric sciences. as an employee of the u.s. weather bureau, wexler worked to bring air mass analysis to the united states, and, as an army air force officer, worked with rossby to train a generation of weather cadets during world war ii. after the war, wexler became head of research in the weather bureau where he nurtured every new technological development and every new international program of relevance to the atmosphere. in this capacity, he worked to incorporate radar, sounding rockets, nuclear tracers, digital computers, and satellites into meteorological practice. he demonstrated scientific leadership as a member of (and often chair of) many national and international meteorological advisory committees, including the u.s. military’s research and development board, the advisory committee on reactor safeguards for the u.s. atomic energy committee, and the national research council’s space science board. wexler’s vision was global, as evidenced by his leadership during the international geophysical year of 1957-58. he conducted experiments and coordinated measurements on the antarctic ice sheet and established the weather bureau's mauna loa observatory, which measured the concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases. in 1962, the year of his untimely death, wexler was on assignment from the kennedy administration, 22 bert bolin, “carl-gustaf rossby: the stockholm period, 1947–1957,” tellus a–b 51 (1999): 4–12. 23 “man's milieu,” time 68 (dec. 17, 1956), 68-79. 24 c.-g. rossby, “current problems in meteorology.” history of meteorology 7 (2015) 11 negotiating the world weather watch, a lasting international agreement on the peaceful exchange of weather information. 25 wexler’s position allowed him access to the full range of atmospheric technologies. radioactive clouds generated by outdoor nuclear testing introduced new tools that cut across the vast spectrum of atmospheric processes and, as wexler put it, provided meteorologists with a “matchless tracing agent” of horizontal and vertical flow and diffusion applicable at all scales and all levels, from the surface layer to the stratosphere. 26 at higher levels, the radioactive clouds sketched out the patterns of rossby waves. wexler also used the new technology of weather radar to determine the structure of a hurricane that passed over florida in 1945. he contrasted traditional observational and synoptic mapping techniques with time-lapse images and tracking provided by high-resolution, long-range military radar. the images revealed hitherto unseen details of squall lines and hurricane bands and stimulated novel explanations of their dynamics. wexler pointed out that the radar screen was now providing a new “eyepiece” thorough which to view severe weather and was opening up a new research field involving radar in meteorology. 27 wexler also served as weather bureau liaison for the institute for advanced study computer project in princeton, new jersey, a project led by john von neumann to investigate the theory of dynamic meteorology in order to make it accessible to high speed, electronic, digital, automatic computing. subsequently, wexler was in charge of institutionalizing and operationalizing numerical weather prediction and general circulation modelling within the u.s. weather bureau. sounding rockets came under wexler’s purview as scientific probes and observational platforms to investigate the upper atmosphere and photograph clouds from above. wexler served as chair of several influential committees on this subject, and his extensive records from meetings show the evolution of issues, including the official naming of the new atmospheric layers being discovered. 28 the meteorological satellite era, long anticipated by rossby, officially began on april 1, 1960, when tiros 1, the first television and infra-red observing satellite, reached orbit. tiros 1 carried two shuttered television cameras (photosensitive vidicon tubes) that recorded images of clouds on tape for later transmission to the ground. wexler served as chief scientist for the program. technology aside, the question remains: what can be accomplished and what cannot, especially in forecasting and prediction? techniques pioneered by the bergen school made it possible to forecast partial rotations of a single vortex, initially for two to three days and later, with some skill, for three to seven days. however, it is not possible, due to turbulence and non-linear interactions, to forecast multiple rotations of multiple vortices, that is, to generate a long-range weather forecast for periods of weeks, months, 25 j.r. fleming, “polar and global meteorology in the career of harry wexler, 1933–1962,” globalizing polar science: reconsidering the social and intellectual implications of the international polar and geophysical years, r.d. launius, j.r. fleming, and d.h. devorkin, eds. (new york: palgrave, 2010), 225-241. 26 harry wexler, “introductory talk,” conference on atomic energy and meteorology, u.s. weather bureau, december 19-20, 1949, harry wexler papers, box 16, u.s library of congress, manuscript division. 27 harry wexler, “structure of hurricanes as determined by radar,” annals of the new york academy of sciences 48 (1947): 821-844. 28 “notes on upper atmospheric nomenclature,” harry wexler papers, box 32, u.s library of congress, manuscript division. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 12 or seasons. prediction of planetary, or rossby wave upper-air patterns, have been extended to five to seven days. still, scientists may know where the ridges and troughs are, but cannot anticipate all their changes and vicissitudes with perfect certainty. in climate-related affairs, an “infinite forecast” can provide the overall patterns and the statistics of the general circulation, but at the expense of all detail. yet it is not possible to predict the future state of the perturbed climate system, whether from natural or human causes, let alone the behavior of weather systems or even modified clouds. we can intervene in natural systems, but we cannot control them, nor can we forecast them with any precision. the best scientists can do is to gauge sensitivities to changes in various factors that make up the models. an influential report noted in 1962, “the task of the atmospheric scientists is to make quantitative measurements of the properties that describe the atmosphere's successive states, to understand the physical processes by which the successive states are determined, to predict future states, and, if feasible, to influence future states in a beneficial manner.” 29 atmospheric scientists have addressed the first two tasks and have generated robust progress; the final two tasks, prediction and influence (or control) remain beyond their reach. finally, they are helpless (not a word often used in science) to predict the timing of regime changes, or changes of state of the flow. new knots the neo-laplacian program hit a solid brick wall in 1960 when, using a small computer and a simple non-linear model, edward lorenz (1917-2008) introduced chaos theory into meteorology and by extension into climate modeling. 30 he brought the novel understanding that chaos theory provided a new topology, an extreme sensitivity to initial conditions in a dynamical system of deterministic non-periodic flow. 31 in chaos theory, future states of the weather and climate then become identifiable with the attractor of the dynamical system — but the dynamical system may have more than one attractor! no matter how sophisticated the technology becomes, chaos theory holds that perfectly accurate measurements and perfectly accurate forecasts will never be possible. 32 atmospheric scientists since face a number of difficult conceptual choices as they come to grip with chaos theory and the challenges it poses for both weather and climate modeling. the technologies that propelled the profound transformation of atmospheric research during and just after world war ii, are, in their improved versions, still in widespread use. each made significant cuts into the gordian knot of meteorology, perhaps none greater than improvement of forecasting skill due to the ultimate linking of satellite monitoring and numerical weather prediction. ensemble forecasters too attempt to circumvent chaotic limits by using spaghetti plots of multiple model forecasts to reduce uncertainty. yet the neo-laplacian knot persists and a new chaotic knot has been identified, clearly recognized in the field of numerical weather prediction, but still only 29 sverre petterssen, “the atmospheric sciences, 1961-1971,” weatherwise (oct. 1962): 185-187, 213. 30 edward n. lorenz, “the statistical prediction of solutions of dynamic equations,” proceedings of the international symposium on numerical weather prediction in tokyo, november 7-13, 1960, s. syono, ed. tokyo: meteorological society of japan, 1962. 31 edward n. lorenz, “deterministic nonperiodic flow,” j. atmos. sci. 20 (1963): 130–141. 32 edward n. lorenz, the essence of chaos (seattle: university of washington press, 1993). history of meteorology 7 (2015) 13 dimly apprehended with regards to climate models. in 1994 j. b. elsner and j.c. honoré noted that almost two decades elapsed following the seminal work of lorenz before the larger scientific community engaged with the quantitative implications of chaos theory in any serious way. 33 in one of his many lectures, lorenz addressed the issue of “solving the weather forecasting problem.” he shared three possibilities: 1. learning to make essentially perfect weather forecasts. 2. learning to make the best attainable weather forecasts, even if they are far from perfect. 3. learning how good the best attainable forecasts are even if we don’t learn how to make them. then, with a twinkle in his eye, lorenz asked, “why should nearly perfect forecasts be unattainable?” — “chaos.” 34 option 1. is where we were; option 2. is where we are; and option 3. represents the future. in effect lorenz had identified a new gordian knot of meteorology to accompany the older one that had been somewhat unraveled and frayed, but not untied. the atmospheric sciences are still coming to terms with this challenge. in 1927 sir arthur eddington said this about the new and revolutionary quantum theory of matter: “our eyes once opened, we may pass on to a yet newer outlook of the world, but we cannot go back to the old outlook.” this implicit acknowledgment of shape-shifting concepts in science applies equally well to new and emerging understandings of weather and climate, as informed by chaos theory. 33 j. b. elsner and j. c. honoré, “ignoring chaos,” bulletin of the american meteorological society 75 (1994): 1846-1847. 34 undated lecture transparency in the papers of edward n. lorenz, u.s library of congress, manuscript division. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 98 working with weather: atmospheric resources, climate variability and the rise of industrial meteorology, 1950 – 2010 vladimir janković vladimir.jankovic@manchester.ac.uk centre for the history of science, technology and medicine, university of manchester accurate and timely weather, water and climate information and products have critical importance in world economies but their development and their relevance in the economic and meteorological contexts have generally received a poor treatment by historians and sociologists of science. the reason might be in that such information remains hidden in routine executive decisions. this may create a perception that such information is scientifically less important than the research, modelling and numerical weather prediction, the areas that currently attract most public and scholarly attention. this relative public invisibility of industrial uses of meteorological research is mirrored by the fact that there has been relatively little historical study on the applied, service and industrial meteorology compared to that devoted to research meteorology. historians of science have generally found these areas of expertise less gripping than the historical developments in the meteorological knowledge related to numerical weather prediction, climate modelling and theoretical atmospheric research. 1 yet throughout the twentieth century, applied meteorology – an area of research where weather data, analyses and forecasts are put to practical use – became increasingly prominent, with an emerging number of national services and private consultancies providing services in the domains of agricultural risk assessment, air quality, transportation, construction, utilities and retail. 2 since the 1980s in particular, there has been an unprecedented growth in the production of weather information designed to hedge against socio-economic losses caused by stochastic weather events or improve operations across industrial and service sectors sensitive to weather variations. applied climate and weather products have since become global in reach, diverse in purposes, data-intensive and subjects of research in academic, government, and private institutions. in 2006, the total value of the commercial weather services in europe was estimated to be 550m euros. in the us, this market is 1 brant vogel, ‘bibliography of recent literature in the history of meteorology,’ history of meteorology 5 (2009): 23 – 125. 2 john thornes and samuel randalls, ‘applied meteorology and climatology,’ progress in physical geography 34 (2014): 389 391 mailto:vladimir.jankovic@manchester.ac.uk history of meteorology 7 (2015) 99 estimated to be worth 1.8 billion dollars. 3 meteorological products have application in around forty percent of weather sensitive industries, in which managers and decision makers use them to reduce the financial harm caused by weather-induced reductions in outputs or productivity. the monetary impact is significant: for example, the median operational downtime caused by weather conditions costs us based small businesses around 3000 dollars daily. 4 part of this decline is associated by high-impact weather events which have an increasing impact on the insurance industry’s ability to absorb mounting damage claims: between 1980 and 2004, the total loss incurred by high impact weather events totaled 1.4 trillion usd, of which 340 mil usd were insured. 5 the rise in the production of weather and climate information over the past fifty years stands in contrast to the situation before the 1960s, when, outside agriculture, shipping and aviation, industries usually did not possess mechanisms for a systematic uptake and use of weather information in their operations and risk management procedures. outside sporadic calls to apply weather expertise in the construction and engineering sector, there were few signs of institutional awareness about how such information might be used in sectors such utilities, retail, ground transportation, urban planning, logistics, manufacturing, and extraction industries. since the 1960s, however, the world meteorological organization, national hydrometeorological services, and research community increasingly argued for the need to recognize the substantial economic value of weather information and to develop a means to communicate such information to potential users. this paper provides an account of key institutional, methodological and theoretical developments informing the growth of applied and industrial meteorology during the last fifty years. while the increasing importance and use of meteorological expertise in businesses has been subject of recent scholarship, this paper considers the historical factors behind these developments. 6 more specifically, i argue that the so-called ‘golden age’ of applied and industrial meteorology between 1980 and present 7 resulted from a conjuncture of at least four main sets of scientific, environmental and socioeconomic processes, namely: (1) a strengthening policy role of the ‘atmospheric resource’ agenda in the geographic and atmospheric sciences in the industrialized world during the 1960s, (2) the growing need to assess (and thus justify) the monetary value of meteorological information in the context of investment in national meteorological services, (3) increasing losses from high-impact weather events during the 1960s, followed by major climate anomalies during the early 1970s that caused political tensions, environmental soulsearching and security crises in both the developed and 3 r. e. w. pettifer, ‘towards a stronger european market in applied meteorology,’ meteorological applications 15 (2008): 305 – 312; b. spiegler, ‘the private-sector meteorology,’ in james r. fleming (ed), historical essays on meteorology 1919 – 1995 (boston: american meteorological society, 1996). 4 valley vision http://valleyvision.org/projects/business-resiliency-in-the-capital-region, accessed 28 march 2015. 5 evan mills, ‘insurance in a climate change,’ science 309 (2005): 1040 – 1044. 6 john thornes and samuel randalls, ‘applied meteorology and climatology,’ progress in physical geography 2014 (38): 389 – 391; marc tadaki, jennifer salmond and richard le heron, ‘applied climatology: doing the relational work of climate,’ progress in physical geography 38 (2014): 392-413; stanley a. changnon, ‘the past and future of climate-related services in the united states,’ journal of service climatology 1 (2007): 1-7; 7 stanley a. changnon, ‘applied climatology,’ in j.e. oliver (ed), encyclopedia of world climatology (dordrecht: springer, 2005), 54 – 58. http://valleyvision.org/projects/business-resiliency-in-the-capital-region history of meteorology 7 (2015) 100 developing worlds and (4) the resulting representation of the environment as hazard 8 that ushered in the cultures of ‘climatological impact assessment.’ the paper understands ‘industrial meteorology’ as a constellation of knowledge practices, modes of communication and delivery of weather information related to the application of meteorological information to industrial problems. this definition includes the more specific understanding of industrial meteorology as the collection of private sector organizations, such as meteorological consultancies and media outlets, that provide tailored weather information to various stakeholders. the emphasis here is therefore on the purpose, nature and use of knowledge products rather than the institutional profile of information providers. i will also refer to industrial meteorology as the field of expertise involved in the creation, delivery and use of so-called ‘weather products’: the meteorological information and tools designed to assist decision makers in mitigating weather-related risks and operational costs in the face of short-term atmospheric events and seasonal variations. the weather products can include sector-specific forecasts, nowcasts, predictive models, feasibility studies, financial instruments, and a suite of custom-designed indices such as degree days, windiness, snowpack, econoclimatic indices, and so on. the present discussion provides an account of the recent history of the effort to provide such products and knowledge in a systematic, organized and institutionalized way. industrial meteorology: sources of growth atmospheric resources and the value of weather information the relationship between atmospheric conditions and economic activities has long been recognized. improving agricultural production during the eighteenth and nineteenthcentury provided rationales for systematic data collection and the insitutionalization of meteorological research and forecasting. 9 meteorology was closely allied to interests of colonial governments, offering a means of acquiring knowledge about unfamiliar weather and environments and assisting colonial government planning. 10 during the first half of the twentieth century, geographers, agronomists and climatologists demonstrated the interaction between atmospheric processes and physical and social systems as diverse as forests, mountains, river flows, cities, and water resources – all perceived as of direct relevance to national economies. 11 major investments in meteorological research and 8 ian burton, robert w. kates and gilbert f. white, the environment as hazard (new york: oxford university press, 1978). 9 vladimir janković, ‘climates and commodities: jean pierre purry and the best climate on earth,’ studies in the history and philosophy of modern physics 42 (2010); katharine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: chicago university press, 2005), chapter six; d. r. whitnah, a history of the united states weather bureau (urban, il: university of illinois press, 1961); 10 emily o’gorman, ‘soothsaying or science?’ h. c. russell, meteorology and environmental knowledge of rivers in colonial australia,’ in james beattie, emily o’gorman and matthew henry (eds), climate, science and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, chapter nine. 11 stanley changnon, ‘applied climatology,’ in john e. oliver (ed), the encyclopedia of world climatology (dordrecht: springer, 2004, 54 – 58; vladimir janković and michael hebbert, ‘hidden climate change: urban meteorology and the scales of real weather,’ climatic change 113 (2012): 23 – 33. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 101 application were the hallmark of the world war two. 12 following world war two scientists and government officials in europe and north america argued that meteorological knowledge (and later forecasting) could make a significant difference in the efficiency and profitability of economic activities, including manufacturing, transport, engineering, land-use and the building industry. 13 during the post-war period, influential climatologists such as helmut landsberg considered the atmosphere as an underused ‘natural resource’ and weather information an element in planning of national economies. landsberg’s list of the uses of meteorological information included housing, heating requirements, special purpose buildings, the planning of airports, ‘all weather’ highways, dam construction and flood control measures. he called these uses ‘the exploitation of climatic income.’ 14 the concept of atmospheric resources played a fundamental role in the subsequent development of applied meteorology by accentuating its political and security relevance. it allowed meteorologists and decisions makers to think on how to activate latent economic ‘values’ inherent in the atmosphere and to conceptualize the atmospheric science as an instrument in economic planning and operational management of industrial activities. 15 in promoting these agendas during the period between 1945 and 1980, the world meteorological organization, the national meteorological services and a community of atmospheric scientists acted as chief brokers in promoting meteorological applications in industry and public sectors. 16 the wmo took steps in studying the economic advantages of meteorological services and called for closer ties between atmospheric scientists and professionals. 17 it encouraged national governments and meteorological services to carry out cost-benefit studies of climatological services in agriculture, town planning, and the construction industry. its officials argued the gains from weather data far outweighed their costs and that meteorological consultancy in the planning, development and conservation of resources could save about five times the total running cost of a service. 18 calls were issued for a systematic development of applied weather knowledge in national meteorological services, 19 and for a more organized approach in providing weather 12 woodrow cooper jacobs, wartime developments in applied climatology (boston: american meteorological society, 1947); kristine c. harper, weather by the numbers: the genesis of modern meteorology (boston: mit press, 2008) 13 weather and building industry: research correlation conference proceedings (washington d.c: national research council and building research advisory board, 1950); k. h. jenn, ‘some aspects of engineering meteorology,’ the scientific monthly, january 1953: 3-10; j. a. russo, ‘the economic impact of weather on the construction industry,’ bulletin of the american meteorological society 47 (1966): 967 – 972. 14 helmut landsberg, climate as a natural resource,’ the scientific monthly 63 (1946): 293 – 298. 15 james a. taylor (ed), climatic resources and economic activity (newton abbot: david and charles, 1974); j e hobbs’s applied climatology: a study of atmospheric resources (boulder: westview press, 1980); w. j. maunder, the human impact of climate uncertainty (london: routledge, 1989), 3-4. 16 building climatology. technical note 109 (geneva: world meteorological organization, 1970), t. j. chandler (ed), urban climatology and its relevance to urban design. technical note 149 (geneva: wmo, 1976); r. berrgren, economic benefits of climatological services. technical note 145 (geneva: wmo, 1975). 17 j. c. thomson, world weather watch planning report no. 4 (geneva: wmo, 1966). 18 w. j. gibbs, ‘what is weather worth,’ papers presented to productivity conference, melbourne sept 1964 (melbourne: australian bureau of meteorology, 1965). 19 alexander hall, risk, blame, and expertise: the meteorological office and extreme weather in postwar britain (phd, university of manchester, 2012), 215 – 216. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 102 information for economic sectors including energy utilities, mining, manufacturing, the built environment, and the tertiary sector. 20 the first private weather consultancies appeared under the names of travellers research center (1956) and accu-weather (1962). 21 by the mid 1960s, air pollution research had made advances in understanding the weather conditions favoring pollution episodes, demonstrating the social and economic potential of applied research to both national and local governments. 22 these contribution coincided with a growing need to add social value to existing regimes of meteorological investigation: ‘during the first half of [twentieth century], argued an influential new york health official in 1964, ‘observations were geared to the needs of crops and livestock; during the last fifty years to the need of aircraft. we have yet to provide a national system of observations designed specifically to meet the needs of people, particularly those who congregate in cities.’ 23 in britain, the meteorological office argued that a nation’s weather services should extend the scope of their activities beyond traditional fields of expertise (aviation and marine operations), to cover other sectors of society. hydro-meteorological services were to consider the economic benefits of its work and seek to understand how their activities and products could help the nation in economic and financial terms. 24 relying on the ‘economics of information’ approach, 25 analysts worked to evaluate the monetary impact of weather applications and the ‘return-on-investment’ for national meteorological services. 26 in germany, george bell pioneered in 1956 one of the first cost-benefit analyses of the value of meteorological information. soon, neologisms such as ‘weather economics,’ ‘econoclimate,’ and ‘the business of weather’ received attention at 20 r. r. rapp and r. e. huschke, weather information: its uses, actual and potential. memorandum rm4083-uswb (santa monica, ca, rand corporation, 1964); 21 robert d elliott, ‘history, policy and future of industrial meteorology,’ bulletin of the american meteorological society 57 (1976): 1318 – 1342; samuel randalls, ‘weather profits: weather derivatives and the commercialization of meteorology,’ social studies of science 40 (2010): 705-730. 22 h wexler, ‘the role of meteorology in air pollution,’ in air pollution. geneva: who monograph series, 1961, 49 – 62; e c halliday, ‘a historical review of atmospheric pollution,’ in air pollution (geneva: who monograph series, 1961), 9 – 38; jack m leavitt, ‘meteorological considerations in air quality planning,’ journal of air pollution control association 10 (1960): 246 – 250; mark whitehead, state, science and the skies: governmentalities of the british atmosphere (london: wiley, 2009), 63-64; scott hamilton dewey, don’t breath the air: air pollution and u.s. environmental politics, 1945 – 1970 (houston tx: texas a&m university press, 2000), vladimir janković, ‘air chemistry and the making of urban meteorology in new york city during mayor wagner’s and mayor lindsay’s office terms,19541973’ gordon cain conference chemical heritage foundation, philadelphia, may 2011. 23 arthur stern, ‘on meteorological tools for air pollution control,’ journal of air pollution control association 14 (1964): 86-87, my italics. 24 b. j. mason, ‘the role of meteorology in the national economy,’ weather 21 (1966): 382-393, b. j. mason, ‘recent developments in weather forecasting and their application to industry,’ ice proceedings 38 (1967): 1-20; hall, risk, blame and expertise, 217. 25 j. c. thompson and g. w. brier, ‘the economic utility of weather forecasts,’ monthly weather review 83 (1955): 249-254; f. linden, ‘weather in business,’ conference board business records 16 (1959): 90 – 94; f. linden, ‘merchandising weather,’ conference board business records 19 (1962): 15 – 16; j. d. mcquigg, ‘the economic value of weather information,’ phd dissertation, the university of missouri, 1964; r. r. nelson and s. g. winter, weather information and economic decisions. a preliminary report rm-2060 (santa monica: rand corporation, 1960). 26 lester b. lave, ‘the value of better weather information to the raisin industry,’ econometrica 31 (1963): 151-164; b. j. mason, ‘recent developments in weather forecasting and their application to industry,’ ice proceedings 38 (1967): 1-20. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 103 international meetings what is weather worth (australia, 1965) and urban climate and building climatology (brussels 1968). in 1969 wmo established the panel on the applications of meteorology to economic and social development, whose reports testified to the interest of both wmo and a european commission panel of experts in seeing meteorological experts serving on governmental planning committees. 27 during this period industrial meteorology grew in stature with the rise of university courses such as the university of birmingham’s (uk) msc in applied meteorology and climatology (1963) and the launching of the international journal of applied meteorology in climatology in 1962 which featured a broad coverage of topics, from optimization of ship routing, to weather sensitivity of raisin industry, to the probabilistic analyses of completion of outdoor work. the field rapidly grew during the late1960s and the early 1970ssaw a string of classic publications and synthetic overviews including john maunder’s (1970) the value of the weather, john e. oliver’s climate and man’s environment (1973), j. r. mather’s climatology: fundamentals and applications (1974), k. smith’s principles of applied climatology (1975). at the tail-end of this ‘spur-growth’ period, j e hobbs published his applied climatology: a study of atmospheric resources (1980), and professor john thornes from the university of birmingham, wrote two important conceptual excursions into the problematic of atmospheric management. 28 barring thornes’s interventions, most of these publications worked under within the framework of what tadaki, salmond and le heron have termed a ‘politics of biophysical’: ‘the applied climatology [and industrial meteorology even more so] makes no claims about the subjects beyond the fact that they sustain biophysical economic losses or benefits form certain events.’ 29 these research and institutional developments in industrial meteorology were cumulative in their effects on the user’s awareness of the field’s importance. for the most part, however, they reflected concerns that were local to meteorological and geographical professions and those of the national weather services. on the american side, for example, one of the key protagonists in this busy period was james mcquigg from the missouri office of the us weather bureau’s. during the late 1960s, mcquigg worked to promote applied research and economic analyses of weather information, many of which preceded the landmark synthesis of john maunder. 30 in the lecture given at the fifth session of the wmo commission for climatology (geneva 1969), mcquigg explained that the ‘rapid increase’ of interest in the economics of weather since the world war two owed to three key factors. one involved budgetary pressures to justify projects in terms of high benefit-cost ratios resulting from projects’ outcomes. the second factor was the conviction that planned weather modification could become a means to reduce the socioeconomic risks posed by high-impact weather and adverse climatic conditions in sectors such as agriculture and hydroelectric power production. the national science foundation had already appointed a commission for weather modification whose first report 27 r. schneider, j.d. mcquigg, l. l. means and n. k. klyukin, applications of meteorology to economic and social development. technical note 132 (geneva: wmo, 1974), 5. 28 john thornes, ‘a paradigmatic shift in atmospheric studies?’ progress in physical geography 5 (1981): 429-440 and john thornes, ‘atmospheric management,’ journal of geography in higher education 7 (1983): 189 – 198. 29 tadaki, salmond and le heron, ‘applied climatology,’ 397. 30 john maunder, interview with author, 25 july 2013. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 104 appeared in 1968. 31 thirdly, development of computers and communication systems allowed for effective investigations into the quantitative assessment of the economic value of meteorological information. 32 the fourth factor, which mcquigg did not discuss, was the mounting toll of economic losses due to air pollution and severe weather events: the fact that actual losses exceeded compensated losses by an order of magnitude indicated a major lack of the meteorological risk assessment and preventative use of meteorological information. 33 climate anomalies of the 1970s this last factor became apparent after 1968 when the world faced a series of dramatic short-term climatic variations, including the drought in the sahel and crop failures in russia that resulted in an agro-political crisis of international dimensions. these developments furthered buttressed the importance of weather and climate variations for the military, economic and national security issues during the cold war. 34 the correlation was cast in sharp relief in 1972, when the postwar complacency about world food security suffered a major blow from simultaneous crop failures, mostly climate induced, that led to a tripling in the price of wheat and rice, and the rapid decline in carryover stocks. in the autumn of 1975, the soviet minister of agriculture announced that bad weather in russia had forced the government to import us grain. american dock workers threatened strikes unless they were assured that the sales would not affect domestic prices. president ford initially embargoed grain exports but changed the policy following the bi-lateral trade agreement with the soviet union. the us secretary of agriculture considered this decision and subsequent russian purchases as ‘one of the great destabilizing forces in the world grain markets.’ 35 the us central intelligence agency issued a ‘a study of climatological research as it pertains to intelligence problems’ which concluded that ‘a climatic change is taking place and it has already caused major economic problems throughout the world […] new alignments will be made to ensure a secure supply of food resources.’ 36 reminiscing about the events of six years on, the renown canadian climatologist fredrick kenneth hare commented that the 31 w.r. d. sewell (ed), human dimensions of the atmosphere (national science foundation, washington dc: us government printing office, 1968), and w.r.d. sewell ‘emerging problems in the management of atmospheric resources,’ bulletin of the american meteorological society 49 (1968): 326-336. 32 james d. mcquigg, ‘some attempts to estimate economic response of weather information,’ weather 26 (1971): 72-78. 33 w. r. f. derrick sewell and j. elizabeth mcmeiken, ‘emerging problems in the management of atmospheric resources in canada,’ atmosphere 5 (1967): 34 – 38. 34 r.e. huschke, r. robert rapp and c. schultz, military weather calculations for the nato theater (santa monica, ca: the rand corporation,1980); kristine harper and ronald doel, ‘environmental diplomacy in the cold war: weather control, the united states and india, 1966 – 1967, in j. r.mcneil, corrina r. unger (eds), environmental histories of the cold war (cambridge university press, 2010), 115 – 138; simone turchetti, ‘the storms of doctor strangelove: meteorological studies sponsored by nato during the cold war,’ working atmospheres: weather and climate services in historical and contemporary perspectives, university of manchester, november 2013. 35 quoted in walter orr roberts and henry landsford, the climate mandate (san francisco: wh freeman,1979), 16. see also john borchert, ‘the dust bowl in the 1970s,’ annals of the association of american geographers 61 (1971): 1-22; james e. newman and robert c. pickett, ‘world climates and food supply variations,’ science 186 (1974): 877 – 881. 36 a study of climatological research as it pertain to intelligence problems, cia, 1974. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 105 ‘western politicians became persuaded, for the first time since the 1930s, that climate might have a major destabilizing effect on the food system.’ 37 in the united states the perception of security ‘destabilization’ was enhanced by the fact the tensions over agrometeorological ‘shocks’ coincided with the opec embargo on oil imports and rising inflation – creating a major political challenge for the ford administration. 38 popular and academic books took to the task of explaining the causes and economic fallout of weather and climate extremes, while scientists and policy makers called for a more robust understanding of socio-economic costs of the short-term to seasonal change, seeking urgent attention of the economists and business elites. 39 concerns such as these, as andrew ross shrewdly observed, transformed climatology from a branch of geography concerned with weather averages into ‘a volatile, political commodity of the first rate of importance.’ 40 the wmo’s commission for climatology, established in 1951, responded to the 1970s events with a series of meetings, initiatives and reports that sent a strong signal about the socio-political importance of applied and industrial meteorology. in 1973 the world meteorological congress gave the commission new terms of reference and a new name that reflected the increasing concerns with socio-economic outputs of research and the threat of high-impact weather variations: the commission became the commission for special applications of meteorology and climatology (cosamc). wmo’s session in bad homburg (germany) in 1973 introduced fourteen new rapporteurs and working groups on subjects of direct economic importance, including the new working group on climatic fluctuations and man. in 1982 wmo renamed cosamc as the commission for climatology and applications of meteorology (ccam). 41 furthermore, the executive committee of wmo convened in 1979 a high-level scientific and technical conference to be attended by both physical and social scientists, including the representatives of weather-sensitive branches of national economies such as agriculture, energy, water resources, fisheries and health. the conference led to the formation of world climate program that had, as two of its four programs, the world climate applications program and the world climate impact program. 42 in the same period, the united states established the climate dynamics program (1974) and passed the national climate program act (1978) which had a decisive social component. 43 the program’s outcomes were envisaged in terms of weather and climate products intended for private and public users, including farmers, water managers, manufacturers and consultancies. the members 37 f. kenneth hare, ‘climate: the neglected factor,’ international journal 36 (1981): 371 – 387, 373. 38 yanek mieczkowski, gerald ford and the challenges of the 1970s (the university of kentucky press, 2005), 95 – 110. 39 international perspectives on the study of climate and society (washington dc: national research council, 1978), reid bryson and thomas j. murray, climates of hunger (madison wi: the university of wisconsin press, 1977); howard matthai, hydrologic and human aspects of the 1976-77 drought (washington, d.c.: u.s. government printing office, 1979). 40 andrew ross, ‘is global culture warming up?’ social text 28 (1991): 3-30, 7. 41 commission of climatology: over eighty years of service wmo: no. 1079, 2011 42 eugene w. bierly, ‘the world climate program: collaboration and communication on a global scale,’ annals of the american academy of political and social science 495 (1988): 106 – 116; see also committee on atmospheric sciences, ‘the atmospheric sciences: national objectives for the 1980s,’ bulletin of the american meteorological society 62 (1981): 226 – 231. 43 vladimir janković, ‘climatological data archiving and the us national climate program,’ in lorraine daston (ed), science of the archives (forthcoming university of chicago press, 2015). history of meteorology 7 (2015) 106 of national climate board, who defined the program’s principles, argued that the program would be judged on grounds of its economic impact and the extent to which the dissemination of climate data could increased the industrial productivity and gdp in times of environmental adversity witnessed in the 1970s: ‘a major objective of the uscp [united state climate program] is to improve productivity in all sectors of us economy through effective application of knowledge of climate.’ 44 through these legislative moves immediately following the 1970s disturbances, an increasing institutional presence of applied/service meteorology began to recast the purpose of atmospheric knowledge from one that (mostly) served the research and forecasting communities, to one more oriented towards the needs of the market, national security and public welfare. this change has resulted in a wider and more routine application of weather products in both the public and private spheres during the last thirty years. meteorologists have begun to provide regular advice on the effects of the atmosphere on industrial activities and worked to ensure a representation of user interests throughout the information and research systems. 45 concurrently, business demand stimulated a growth of private meteorological services and consultancies catering for diverse businesses’ needs. 46 atmospheric scientists in government agencies, universities, and consultancies have become vital in decision making, moving weather and climate information to the forefront of institutional thinking that ushered in changnon’s ‘golden age’ of applied atmospheric sciences. tadaki, salmond and le heron offer that ‘climate applications have never been more embedded into human organizations than at present, and the industries with strong histories of climate application – agriculture, urban design, tourism – have developed their own communities and structures within and external to applied climatology to deal with their concerns.’ 47 these trends gave industrial meteorology the status of an ‘infrastructural science’ designed to provide standardized information for regulatory purposes, to hedge risk in routine weather-sensitive operations, and to avert losses from high-impact atmospheric events. 48 put another way, industrial meteorology became a macroeconomic tool designed to mitigate against losses from high-impact weather events and to help optimize routine weather-sensitive operations across economic sectors. impact assessment studies this socio-economic framework has shaped the applied atmospheric research during the last thirty years, especially as the losses from short-term atmospheric variability and severe weather events continued to rise. the first organized approach to understanding the relationship between human activities and climate variability (including periods of adverse weather and hydrometeorological disasters) was developed under the auspices of the world climate program (1979) and the specialized world climate impact program, 44 toward a u.s. climate program plan, (washington d.c.: national academy of sciences, 1978), 3. 45 a. h. perry, ‘econoclimate: a new direction for climatology,’ area 3 (1971): 178 – 179; atmospheric climate data: problems and promises (national academy press: washington, d.c., 1986). 46 david changnon and stanley a. changnon, ‘major growth in some business-related uses of climate information,’ journal of applied meteorology and climatology 49 (2010): 325 – 331. 47 tadaki, salmond and le heron, ‘applied climatology,’ 399. 48 roger turner, weathering heights: the emergence of aeronautical meteorology as an infrastructural science, phd university of pennsylvania, 2010. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 107 one of which mandates included improvement of the knowledge of the impact of climatic variability in terms of primary responses of human systems such as agriculture, water resources, fisheries, energy transportation, human health, and land use. 49 the program explicitly drew on the disasters and crises of the 1970s, aspiring to develop methodologies to address the necessity of ‘tuning’ weather-sensitive sectors of the economy to adapt to or amortize climate variations. a major review of methodologies and approaches was undertaken by the scientific committee on problems of the environment (scope), under the coordination of robert w. kates, jesse h. ausubel and mimi berberian. 50 in the volume, the geographer william e. riebsame from the university of colorado discussed the historical construction of the notion of ‘climate as hazard,’ making a direct connection between the reaction to the anomalies of the 1970s and the scientific and political interest in studies of the socio-economic impact of severe weather events. drawing on insights hubert lamb publicized in the his influential climate, history and the modern world (1983), riebsame wrote that the ‘perception’ of world climates entering a ‘more variable state’ ‘amplified the message of those concerned that society’s sensitivity to climate disruption might also be increasing.’ 51 clearly the perception of the 1970s as a major watershed in the public and political understanding of the role of weather and climate in world affairs profoundly influenced the international climate research towards the impact assessment agenda and closer communication with economic and public sector stakeholders. as lamb succinctly put it referring to the world famine crisis of 1972, ‘in the leading scientific, technical and administrative institutions in the advanced countries, there was some confusion about how to interpret the climatic event [of 1972] and revise attitude to climate.’ 52 echoing these sentiments were researchers who recognized the need and responsibility to monitor the impacts of weather events on national economies and develop methodologies for the estimation of monetary costs of such impacts. 53 already during at the first climate conference in 1979, kates and r. d’arge reported on the humanitarian and monetary effects of natural disasters; 54 a study on the impacts of severe winters on household economies has been conducted by stanley changnon of illinois state water survey in 1979. the us center for environmental assessment services (ceas) of noaa estimated that the severe winter of 1982 led to direct losses of the 49 world meteorological organization, outline plan and basis for the world climate programme (geneva: wmo, 1980), 32. 50 robert w. kates, jesse h. ausubel and mimi berberian (eds), climate impact assessment (new york: john wiley and sons, 1985). before this comprehensive review, scope issued twenty seven reports in the period between 1971 and 1985 under the editorial hand of the canadian micro-meteorologist r.e. munn. 51 william e. riebsame, ‘research in climate-society interaction,’ in kates, ausubel and berberian (eds), climate impact assessment, 69 – 84, 72. 52 lamb, climate, history and the modern world (london: methuen, 1982), 282. 53 jean palutikof, ‘the impact of weather and climate on industrial production in great britain,’ journal of climatology 3 (1983): 65 – 79; r. w. kates, j. h. ausubel and m. berberian (eds), climate impact assessment studies: studies of the interaction of climate and society. icsu/scope report 27 (new york: wiley, 1985). 54 r. w. kates, ‘climate and society: lessons from recent events,’ proceedings of the world climate conference (geneva: world meteorological organization, 1979), 682-691; r. d’arge, ‘climate and economic activity,’ proceedings of the world climate conference (geneva: world meteorological organization, 1979), 652 – 681. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 108 order of eight billion dollars in a three month period. 55 the scientists at the uk climatic research unit performed similar analyses to determine the impact of weather and climate on industrial production in great britain. 56 it is worth noting that these and more recent studies could suffer from methodological deficiencies of double counting, select identification of losses, omission of indirect losses and inaccurate data. 57 nevertheless they suggest that the weather has become a critical operational variable in a world experiencing a growing vulnerability to precipitation shortages associated with aging infrastructure, 58 obsolete water management, failure to keep pace with urban demand, and inefficient monitoring and warning systems. 59 more recently, complementing the impact assessment approach, there has been a revival in the attempts to determine the monetary value of meteorological information, products and services. 60 both approaches, as shown in table 1 have produced important data on the magnitude of socio-economic sensitivity to meteorological events and climatic anomalies which have been seen to justify the creation of a coordinating bodies such as the international weather risk management association (1999) that offers companies the opportunity to control their financial exposure to weather conditions. 55 center for environmental services (ceas), climate impact assessment united states. (national oceanic and atmospheric administration, us dept. of commerce, washington, dc, 1982). 56 jean palutikof, ‘the impact of weather and climate on industrial production in great britain,’ journal of climatology 3 (1983): 65-79. 57 kates et al, climate impact assessment, w. e. easterling and w. riebsame, ‘the climatic impacts perception and adjustment experiment,’ bulletin of the american meteorological society 67 (1986), e.p. borisenkov, ‘problems of applied climatology,’ meteorologiya i gidrologiya 3 (1985): 1-11. 58 william e. riebsame, henry f. diaz, todd moses and martin price, ‘the social burden of weather and climate hazards,’ bulletin of the american meteorological society 67 (1986): 1378 – 1388. 59 n. s. grigg and evan c. vlachos (eds), drought water management (fort collins: colorado state university, 1990). 60 richard w. katz and allan h. murphy (eds), economic value of weather and climate forecasts (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1997); allan h. murphy and barbara g. brown, ‘short-range weather forecasts and current weather information: user requirements and economic values,’ proceedings of iamap symposium, hamburg, 21-25 august 1985 (esa-sp 165, june 1981), 279 – 290. for review see melissa dell, benjamin f. jones and benjamin a. olken, ‘what do we learn from the weather? the new climate-economy literature,’ journal of economic literature 52 (2014): 740 – 798; history of meteorology 7 (2015) 109 annualized benefit from forecasts and warnings $31.5 billion (b) cost of generating forecasts and warnings $5.1 b cost of weather disasters (1980 – 2009) $96 b (1b in damages) annual weather fatalities (1999-2008) 629 impact of adverse weather on us highways 1.5 million crashes, 7400 deaths, $42 b losses annual air traffic delays losses $4.2 b table 1: the annual us weather-related losses and damages (in usd). source: when weather matters: science and service to meet critical societal needs (the national academies press, washington, d.c., 2010). conclusions and prospects for research this paper has explored the four main sources of industrial meteorology during the last fifty years. i have argued that the current economic importance assigned to weather information assimilates the disciplinary growth of applied atmospheric research, environmental contingency and the changing priorities in science policies of the industrial world since the 1970s. more specifically, i have explored the combined effect of these developments in discussions relating the ascent of meteorological application with the researches in atmospheric resource, monetary value of weather products, economic cost of major climatic perturbations during the 1970s and the consequence emergence of weather and climate impact assessment models. but there are other important considerations that i hope should occupy the attention of historians of science, historical geographers and economic and environmental historians. the framework of this future research is one defined by a paradox. as the use of weather products and services shows continued growth and diversification, why there is a parallel growth in weather-related losses observed during the last several decades. we may call the paradox the ‘double growth’ problem. the problem is important because the extraordinary expansion of industrial meteorology would suggest a world of increased stability and immunity from the impact of atmospheric hazards. and yet, it has been suggested that ‘as industrial and business operations generally become more efficient, well-planned, and technical in nature, the effect of small environmental changes has become of obvious importance to the overall success of an operation.’ 61 in thinking about how the increased production and use of weather information relate to socio-economic vulnerability to weather impact, two sets of factors might be 61 david suchman, brian a. auvine and barry h. hinton, ‘some economic effects of private meteorological forecasting,’ bulletin of the american meteorological society 60 (1979): 1148 – 1156. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 110 identified. exogenous factors are related to the changing state of the physical environment (recently associated with anthropogenic climate change). endogenous factors relate to the changing state of socio-economic systems, policies and behaviors. this distinction does not imply that either set should be considered independently from the other, but it allows us to identify where historians may substantially enhance our understanding of the double growth problem. it is evident that any estimates on the economic impact caused by the atmospheric environment (exogenous factors) call for a methodological complexity that goes far beyond the scope of historical analysis and that used in the natural sciences. but the point at which the historical and social sciences may usefully intervene is in exploring the role of endogenous factors. this would help identify the economic, political and policy developments influencing the spatio-temporal trends in weather sensitivity and potentially lead to answering critical issues that inform both the past and present study of atmospheric processes, such as: what accounts for industries’ increasing dependence on meteorological information? have industries become more weather sensitive? if so, why? how effective is the communication between producers and users of weather products? has the growth of applied meteorology been driven by an increased production and marketing of meteorological products, stricter environmental regulation, or advanced computing and information delivery? is meteorological research addressing the real needs of user communities? these questions are particularly relevant for the period following the 1970s, after which new efforts were applied to provide quantitative climatic impact assessments and economic modeling of climatic variability (and later ‘change’) that continue to inform current activities of ipcc working group ii. the united nations environmental program and national environmental agencies endorsed these analyses as part of disaster mitigation strategies, while research communities opened up questions about the societal role of meteorological research. these questions arose in the context of the ‘pressure-andrelease’ model in the studies of vulnerability which asserts socio-economic and political conditions as root causes of exposure. 62 to take one example, kenneth kunkel alerted researchers to the discrepancy between the increasing economic impact of weather extremes and the absence of comparable increases in the frequency of high-impact weather. ‘this suggests,’ kunkel argued, ‘that increasing losses are primarily due to increasing vulnerability arising from a variety of societal changes.’ 63 if his conclusion is correct, would the improved monitoring, warning systems, and the better use of weather information counteract the risks created by socio-economic behaviors? and how exactly have these behaviors affected industries and their reliance on weather products? select examples from the history of economic globalization may help us get a sense of how we can begin to tackle these questions. we know that environmental risk has become a key aspect of industrial management during the last several decades. we also know that environmental risk increases with the increase of some elements of global production of goods: area-focused manufacturing, centralized distribution, reduction of 62 p. blaikie, t. cannon, i, davis, and b. wisner, at risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters (london: routledge,1994). 63 kenneth e. kunkel, roger a. pielke jr., stanley a. changnon, ‘temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: a review,’ bulletin of the american meteorological society 80 (1999): 1077 – 1098. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 111 supplier base, volatility of demand, and the global expansion of supply chains. 64 none of these factors have so far been brought into connection with the evolution of applied meteorology even as these factors have an impact on how managers optimize operations in construction, transport and retail industries. for example, the shift towards leaner supply creates more vulnerable networks because it is based on a reduced inventory to ‘buffer’ any interruption caused by adverse weather. partial damage and downtime at any node in the supply chain – e.g., production facility, supplier, or distribution center – can be mitigated with timely, sector-specific forecasts and passed onto users in the language they can understand and use operationally. 65 or, the trend of increasing interregional trade has made manufacturers in one region more dependent on inputs from other areas, making the production in one place highly sensitive to high-impact weather events in other locations. 66 these vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by deregulation of the 1980s that led to the reduction of so-called ‘redundant’ capacity in a bid to increase efficiency and reduce production costs. as a result, in industries with thin redundant capacities, adverse weather quickly reduced available capacity below its normal operating levels and caused production cuts. and similar effects can be observed in industries relying on just-in-time production based on low inventory-to-output rates. 67 are these trends merely coincidental with the rise of socio-economic application of atmospheric sciences, including the user-oriented national climate programs and industrial meteorology? the question cannot be answered without a detailed contextualization of the industrial meteorology. are the processes of globalization and deregulation at the heart of the expansion of atmospheric knowledge into the industrial domain? the question cannot be answered without looking into the rationales and institutional drivers behind national and international studies of applied meteorology during the last fifty years. the same holds for the question as to whether the restructuring of the global economy triggered a long-term suboptimality of which the industrial weather sensitivity has been only one manifestation. the late stanley changnon suggested in 2010 that ‘financial pressures resulting from enormous weather-caused losses during the 1990s in the us, coupled with deregulation of the utility industry and growing global economic competition affecting agribusiness and other industries, led many firms to seek climate products that could be used to explain the frequency, or risk, associated with various weather conditions.’ 68 on that note, i believe we should welcome historical research into contact areas between atmospheric sciences and economy, seeking to understand how the communication between scientists, science brokers and science users evolved in the past and how it may illuminate our current debates about the public and private governance of atmospheric resource and climate change policies. 64 supply chain vulnerability, executive report on behalf of department of transport, local government and the regions (cranfield university, 2002). 65 on supply networks see ‘http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/dinamiccontent/research/lscm/downloads/vulnerability_report.pdf. 66 susan cutter and william h. renwick, exploitation, conservation, preservation: a geographic perspective on natural resource use (new york: wiley, 2003). 67 from facing hazards and disasters: understanding human dimension, (washington, d.c.: national academies press, 2006), 47 48. 68 changnon and a. changnon, ‘major growth in some business-related uses of climate information,’ journal of applied meteorology and climatology 49 (2010): 325 – 331 http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/dinamic-content/research/lscm/downloads/vulnerability_report.pdf http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/dinamic-content/research/lscm/downloads/vulnerability_report.pdf microsoft word 3. fleming, croll.doc history of meteorology 3 (2006) 43 james croll in context: the encounter between climate dynamics and geology in the second half of the nineteenth century 1 james rodger fleming science, technology, and society program colby college, waterville, maine usa jfleming@colby.edu introduction this paper provides historical context and illuminates the roots of the work of milutin milankovic’ by examining early contributions to climate dynamics by james croll (1821-1890), the leading proponent of an astronomical theory of climate change in the nineteenth century.1 inspired by joseph adhémar’s work, révolutions de la mer (1842), and taking into account precession of the equinoxes, variations in the eccentricity of the orbit, and tilt of the axis, croll proposed that the “true cosmical cause” of climate change “must be sought for in relations of our earth to the sun,” that “geological and cosmical phenomena are physically related by a bond of causation,” and that changes in the earth’s orbital elements, combined with physical feedbacks, were “sufficiently great to account for every extreme of climatic change evidenced by geology.”2 although croll’s theory of orbital elements has often been criticized as “wrong,” and characterized as a precursor of milankovic’, there are far more interesting historical perspectives on his work. his fundamental insights into the interplay of astronomical and geological factors – into cosmic physics and climate dynamics -were extremely influential, especially in the case of the leading geologist of his day, charles lyell, who revised his principles of geology in response to croll’s theory. in order to examine the interplay of climate dynamics and “science dynamics” on centuries-to-decades time scales, the paper concludes with a comparison between the carbon dioxide theory and the astronomical theory of climate change, both of which experienced eclipse and reformulation before reemerging transformed in the twentieth century. 1 reprinted by permission of the serbian academy of sciences and arts from milutin milankovic anniversary symposium: paleoclimate and the earth climate system, belgrade, 30 august 2 september 2004: invited lectures. a. berger, m. ercegovac, and f. mesinger, ed. (belgrade, 2005), 13-20. james croll in context 44 biographical james croll, the second son of david croil, a stonemason, and janet ellis, entered this world in the village of little whitefield, in the parish of cargill, perthshire, scotland on 2 jan 1821. he was raised on a farm, had almost no formal education, and was by his own account “a rather dull scholar,” when in 1832, age 11, a favorable encounter with the penny magazine launched him on a lifetime course of reading, especially in philosophy and science.3 he writes that, “even at the commencement of my studies, it was not the facts and details of the physical sciences which riveted my attention, but the laws or principles which they were intended to illustrate.” geology, with its emphasis on detailed observation, held no attraction for croll, and his employment in 1867, at age 46, with the scottish geological survey, was “more by accident than by choice,” although it proved to be of “immense advantage” for his climatological studies. yet in an era when life expectancy was less than four decades, it took croll fully four decades to find his life’s work. he was in turn a millwright (yet a poor one because his mind tended to abstract thinking rather than practical details); a house joiner (until an inflamed elbow at age 25 ended his career as a physical laborer); a tea merchant (a venture terminated by the ossification of his elbow joint); an innkeeper (at a temperance inn with insufficient lodgers); an insurance salesman (a profession not suited to a man who loves solitude); a newspaperman with a temperance weekly; and a caretaker at andersonian college and museum in glasgow. croll’s physical disabilities and his “strangely checquered career” allowed him time for reading and writing in his favorite subjects, metaphysical and physical.4 his first book, philosophy of theism, was published in 1857 at age 36, during his employment as an insurance salesman; his situation at anderson’s college surrounded him with a fine scientific library, brought him the acquaintance of sir william thompson, lord kelvin, and provided him “a good deal of spare time for study.” this led to a number of scientific publications on electricity, heat, and notably, on astronomical controls on geological climate. his paper, “on the physical cause of the change of climate during geological epochs,” published in the philosophical magazine in 1864, “excited a considerable amount of attention” among the leading scientists of scotland and england. “little did i suspect,” wrote croll, that this was the beginning of a path “so entangled that fully twenty years would elapse before i could get out of it.” 5 in 1867 croll turned down a field position in the scottish geological survey, but accepted a job in edinburgh as the survey’s secretary and accountant. croll’s duties included ordering, printing, coloring, and selling maps and keeping the accounts and stores in order. the director, archibald geikie, encouraged croll to carry out his own research, but to write it up on his own time. according to croll, “the duties of the office were not at all laborious, either physically or mentally.”6 in addition to his work on orbital theory, croll made field excursions on glacial deposits and discovered a pre-glacial river bed running from edinburgh to glasgow. he also encouraged james geikie to advance the theory of multiple glaciations. he shared this opinion with the famous evolutionary theorist alfred russell wallace, who wrote, “it is, i think, now beyond question that the glacial epoch consisted of a succession of cold and warm periods, which must be accounted for in any theory of geological climate”; and with the even more famous evolutionist charles darwin, who wrote, “it is strange that many geologists are so reluctant to admit interglacial periods, which so much upset the [received] theories of climate.” 7 croll’s typical day involved working in the office from ten to four, home at five for dinner and an hour’s rest, then a leisurely stroll in the countryside with pencil and paper, after history of meteorology 3 (2006) 45 which he read and wrote at home for about an hour. although later in life he was afflicted with head pains that became unbearable with mental exertion, still he produced numerous papers on climate change, glacier motion, geological time, ocean currents, and astrophysics. in 1875 croll published his major book, climate and time, a work delayed several years due to ill health, but a work widely admired for the profound impression it produced on geologists around the world.8 the appearance of this book heralded his election as a fellow of the royal society and his receipt of an ll.d. from saint andrews university -which charged him 10 pounds 10 shillings for the honor, or more than $1000 today. croll was a very private man. a combination of poor health and modesty led him to turn down an invitation to lecture at the royal institution; his avowed dislike of what he called subterfuge, namedropping, and public displays kept him away from meetings of the british society for the advancement of science. by 1871 he was “getting tired of geological subjects.” he thought there were “more noble and ennobling studies than science” which he considered too narrow minded. after a good rest he wanted to return to his “old favorite study of philosophy.”9 in 1880 croll further strained his heart and retired from the survey, expecting to draw a full pension because of his advanced age. to his chagrin, he received credit for only thirteen years of employment and saw his income plummet from 350 pounds to 75. this dire financial situation forced the crolls to give up housekeeping and go into rented lodgings. in retirement croll wrote two more scientific books: discussions on climate and cosmology (1886) and stellar evolution and its relations to geologic time (1889). the former served largely as a reply to his critics and an opportunity to develop, illustrate, and confirm his theory of the secular change of the earth’s climate. according to irons, “even if [croll’s theory] be not in all respects faultless and complete, it will forever be acknowledged as having opened up the way for any thorough explanation of the phenomena with which it deals.”10 with his health failing, croll was finally able to return to his first love, philosophy, and saw the publication of his fifth book, the philosophical basis of evolution (1890), a response to darwinism and spencerianism, through the press in the year of his death. james croll in context 46 fig. 1. croll from irons, frontispiece. fig. 2. croll from irons, facing p. 405. croll’s theory in 1864 croll published an article in the philosophical magazine “on the physical cause of the change of climate during geological epochs.” in this paper croll introduced changes in the earth's orbital elements as likely periodic and extraterrestrial mechanisms for initiating multiple glacial epochs. two decades earlier, in révolutions de la mer (1842), joseph adhémar had considered only the climatic effects of the present amount of eccentricity, not the effect of its changes. moreover, adhémar was a catastrophist. he extravagantly assumed that when the earth was gripped by an ice age the polar ice-cap rested on the bottom of the ocean, rising to the enormous height of twenty leagues (~100 km). after 10,000 years, warming conditions, triggered by precession, allow the oceans to erode the base of the polar ice cap, causing it to collapse catastrophically into the ocean. according to adhémar, this sudden motion of such a massive body of ice causes a dramatic shift in the earth’s center of gravity, dragging the oceans along with it and smashing everything on the surface of the globe with a massive tidal wave of death and destruction.11 unlike adhémar, croll was an actualist, but unlike charles lyell, he was willing to consider cosmic causes for earth processes. croll wrote that he had “studiously avoided introducing into his theories anything of a hypothetical nature,” and had set out to prove that “the theory of secular changes of climate follows, as a necessary consequence, from the admitted principles of physical science.”12 history of meteorology 3 (2006) 47 employing the calculations of leverrier and lagrange of the maximum eccentricity of the earth's orbit, and extending them over the course of four million years (figure 3), croll proposed that this “eccentricity was sufficiently great to account for every extreme of climatic change evidenced by geology.”13 his theory of ice ages took into account both the precession of the equinoxes and variations in the shape of the earth's orbit. it predicted that one hemisphere or the other would experience an ice age whenever two conditions occur simultaneously: a markedly elongate orbit, and a winter solstice that occurs far from the sun. croll rejected several older notions of climate change: that the earth was simply cooling following its hot origin, that the earth's axis had shifted, that the earth had passed through hotter and colder regions of space, and that rearrangement of landmasses was a cause of glacial and interglacial conditions.14 he assumed only changes in solar insolation were needed, as controlled by the well-established variations in orbital eccentricity and precession of the equinoxes. later he added changes in the obliquity of the ecliptic. these cosmical factors provided a mechanism for multiple glacial epochs and alternating cold and warm periods in each hemisphere. in other words, when the northern hemisphere was in the grips of an ice age, the southern hemisphere would be in an interglacial. as the earth's orbital elements varied, this situation would eventually be reversed (see figure 4). feedback mechanisms, such as radiative effects of the ice fields, enhanced formation of cloud and fog, changes in sea level, and the mixing and redirection of warm and cold ocean currents (see figure 5) would serve to enhance the climatic changes initiated by the orbital elements. according to croll, “the cause of secular changes of climate is the deflection of ocean currents, owing to the physical consequences of a high degree of eccentricity in the earth’s orbit.” that is, “glacial cycles may not arise directly from cosmical causes, they may do so indirectly!” 15 fig. 3. variations in the earth’s orbit for three million years before 1800 a.d. and one million years after it, from croll, 1875, following p. 312. james croll in context 48 fig. 4. glacial and interglacial conditions when eccentricity is at its superior limit, from croll, 1875, frontispiece. fig. 5. warm and cold currents, one of the key feedback mechanisms causing climate change, from croll, 1875, facing p. 219. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 49 croll and lyell croll’s astronomical challenge to the geographic theory of climate change caused an uproar amongst charles lyell and his associates. in 1865, as he was preparing the important tenth edition of his principles of geology, lyell sought expert advice on how to deal with the new contender. he asked sir john herschel's opinion on the reliability of croll's “facts and reasons,” adding, “of their applicability to geology i may perhaps form an independent opinion. . . . i feel more than ever convinced that changes in the position of land & sea have been the principle cause of past variations in climate, but astronomical causes must of course have had their influence & the question is to what extent have they operated?”16 herschel replied that astronomical causes could provide huge temperature fluctuations, “quite enough to account for any amount of glacier and coal fields…. suppose a distribution of land favorable to cold, suppose an extreme e[ccentricity], and suppose the aphelion to coincide with the winter first in one hemisphere and then in the other, and any amount of glacier you can want is at your disposal…”17 lyell responded to herschel with a twenty-two page letter explaining why geographic causes had to predominate over astronomical ones. he knew the enormous influence on climate of varying configurations of land and sea from direct accounts and observations; the effects of varying eccentricity had yet to be proven.18 lyell conducted a similar correspondence with the astronomer royal, sir george biddell airy, concerning the “ancient state of the earth's orbit.”19 by 1866 lyell, on the advice of herschel and airy, had tentatively accepted croll's theory as a true, but minor cause of climatic change. lyell wrote to charles darwin that he considered croll's maximum eccentricity for the glacial period, “quite subordinate to geographical causes or the relative position of land and sea and abnormal excess of land in polar regions.”20 darwin was much more enthusiastic than lyell about the astronomical theory. he accepted it in part because it provided a valuable mechanism for speciation. darwin thanked croll for sending him his papers from the philosophical magazine. “i have never, i think, in my life, been so deeply interested by any geological discussion. i now first begin to see what a million means…. i thank you cordially for having cleared so much mist from before my eyes.”21 he further agreed with croll that the advocates of the iceberg theory (such as lyell) had formed “too extravagant notions regarding the potency of floating ice as a striating agent.”22 in september 1866, croll received lyell's proof sheets for the climate chapters of the tenth edition of the principles of geology.23 croll wrote back immediately that the glacial epoch could not possibly have been caused directly by any change in the eccentricity of the earth's orbit, but by the combined physical effects of “certain agencies which were brought into operation by means of the change,” that is to say, by the physical feedbacks of climate dynamics.24 two months later, upon receipt of the tenth edition of the principles in november, croll sent lyell a thank-you note for the handsome gift and for the “highly complimentary way” in which his astronomical theory had been treated.25 lyell had indeed agreed with croll on many points. although they still had deep disagreements, croll attributed their differences to basic incompatibilities in the approaches of physics and geology.26 compared to earlier editions, lyell’s tenth and subsequent editions devoted more than twice as much space to climatic change. while the previous edition had had about 58 pages on climate and its vicissitudes, the tenth edition had 130, including a new chapter on astronomical influences with a 37-page section on croll. quoting lyell: “mr. croll's suggestion as to the probable effects of a large excentricity in producing glacial epochs is fully discussed, and the james croll in context 50 question is entertained whether geological dates may be obtained, by reference to the combined effect of astronomical and geographical causes”—with the latter dominant.27 theory emergence, eclipse, and reemergence the astronomical theory of climate change emerged between 1864 and 1890 with the work of james croll. milankovic’ referred to croll’s theory as the “most remarkable” of the early ice age theories, since it “correctly recognizes the influence of the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit upon the duration of the astronomic seasons.”28 however, because of uncertainties in the timing of ice ages and in the stratigraphic record, and because croll’s theory predicted glaciation in only one hemisphere, the theory was largely disregarded for at least three decades. according to milankovic’, the inadequacy of croll’s theory, “lies in the fact that the influence of the variability of the obliquity upon the insolation is not sufficiently taken into account.” 29 the astronomical theory reemerged from eclipse and was formulated into a mathematical theory of insolation by milutin milankovic’ between 1920 and 1941. notwithstanding the precision of the “canon of insolation,” even the milankovic’ theory “had an uneven run” and was in partial eclipse until the 1960s, in part because of thermal lags in the climate system and in part because of the unexplained lack of continental glaciation prior to the pleistocene. in 1976 the theory received new confirmation from the paleostratigraphic work of james hayes, john imbrie, nicholas shackelton, and others who documented the astronomical signals in a number of independent proxy climate records.30 the carbon dioxide theory of climate change followed a similar trajectory. it emerged in the nineteenth century as a consequence of the experimental work of john tyndall (ca. 1859) and the global model published by svante arrhenius (1896) before falling into dispute and eclipse in the early decades of the twentieth century. the work of g.s. callendar from 1938 to 1961 revived and reformulated the theory. it was further brought out of eclipse by the work of gilbert plass (ca. 1953), charles david keeling (from 1958), budyko (in the 1970s) and many others. in recent decades the carbon dioxide theory has moved from a scientific question, to a scientific concern, to a “scientific consensus” and a dominant public policy issue.31 there are further parallels between the two theories. compare tyndall’s statement about atmospheric trace gases: changes in the amount of any of the radiatively active constituents of the atmosphere—water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, or hydrocarbons—could have produced “all the mutations of climate which the researches of geologists reveal… with an early statement by croll about the astronomical theory: changes in the earth’s orbital elements, combined with physical feedbacks, were “sufficiently great to account for every extreme of climatic change evidenced by geology.” almost a century later, faced with the difficulties of reviving the carbon dioxide theory and establishing the astronomical theory g.s. callendar wrote: “how easy it is to critique and how difficult to produce a constructive theory of climate change!” (1957), and milankovic’ observed: history of meteorology 3 (2006) 51 “if my theory is good, it will live by its strength” (1958).32 today both theories are part of mainstream science. major reference works cite the callendar effect : climatic change brought about by anthropogenic increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion. the actuality of such changes was proposed in 1938 by the english scientist g.s. callendar.” (encyclopedia britannica), and the milankovic’ theory: a theory connecting climate changes and glaciations with cyclic variations in the earth's orbit (oxford english dictionary). conclusion during croll’s lifetime the great ice age had been discovered and notions of multiple glacial and “crollean” interglacial epochs were being debated. many of the major mechanisms of climatic change had been proposed, if not yet fully explored: changes in solar output, changes in the earth's orbital geometry, geographical changes, and changes in atmospheric transparency and composition. new climate theories were being introduced and new work was being done on heat budgets, spectroscopy, and the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. the stratographic sequence had not been worked out and many geologists still thought that glacial “drift” deposits had been carried by icebergs. through such tempestuous theoretical waters, croll kept a steady course, negotiating between cosmic and terrestrial physics on the one hand (as exemplified by herschel and lord kelvin) and geology on the other, as practiced by lyell, darwin, and the geikie brothers. the historical literature on climate change has not yet received adequate attention.33 most historical accounts criticize james croll for being “wrong” or refer to him merely as a heroic precursor of milankovic’. recently, calling croll a “british” geologist (fighting words to a scottish natural philosopher) spencer weart dismissed him with the following words, “most scientists found croll's ideas unconvincing, and his timing of the ice ages wholly wrong.”34 however, as documented here, croll had a significant influence on such luminaries as lyell, herschel, darwin, and the geikie brothers, to name just a few. as the saturday review noted, “every honest scientific investigator will admit that [croll’s] writings have had the most radical influence on cosmological speculation. in certain directions his influence has been nearly as great as that of darwin’s in biology.35“ both croll and milankovic’ were visionaries, both were extremely disciplined and principled; both had to face and overcome extreme challenges to advance their theories; both had the herculean task of trying to unite heaven and earth; both provided “missing link(s) between celestial mechanics and geology.”36 as milankovic’ noted: [astronomical causes of climate change] lie far beyond the vision of the descriptive natural sciences. it is therefore the task of the exact natural sciences to outline this scheme, by means of its laws ruling the universe and by its developed mathematical tools. it is left, however, to the descriptive natural sciences to establish an agreement between this scheme and geological experience.37 this sentiment applies to croll in context. i argue that croll’s ideas on climatic change can only be understood and evaluated properly in light of nineteenth-century science in general and james croll in context 52 geology in particular. if croll’s theory that the earth’s climate “revolves” around the sun started a copernican revolution in climate dynamics, then milankovic’ served as the newton of this field. on the occasion of the 125th anniversary of the birth of milutin milankovic’ in 1879, a year in which james croll was actively defending his book, climate and time, historians will readily agree that the contributions of both individuals are best evaluated in context. references adhémar, joseph, 1842. révolutions de la mer, déluges périodiques. paris. bard, edouard, 2004. “greenhouse effect and ice ages: historical perspective,” c.r. geosciences 336: 603-38. croll, james, 1857. philosophy of theism. london. croll, james, 1864. “on the physical cause of the change of climate during geological epochs,” philosophical magazine 28: 121-37. croll, james, 1867. “on the change in the obliquity of the ecliptic, its influence on the climate of the polar regions and on the level of the sea,” philosophical magazine 33: 426-45. croll, james, 1875. climate and time in their geological relations. a theory of secular changes of the earth's climate. new york. croll, james, 1886. discussions on climate and cosmology. new york. croll, james, 1889. stellar evolution and its relations to geological time. london. croll, james, 1890. the philosophical basis of evolution. london. darwin, f. and a.c. seward, ed., 1903. more letters of charles darwin, 2 vols. london. fleming, james rodger, 1998. historical perspectives on climate change. new york. fleming, james rodger, 2007. the callendar effect. boston. hamlin, christopher, 1982. “james geikie, james croll, and the eventful ice age, annals of science 39: 565-83. hays, j.d., j. imbrie, and n.j. shackleton, 1976. “variations in the earth’s orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages,” science 194: 1121-32. herschel, john, papers. royal society library. london. imbrie, john and katherine porter imbrie, 1986. ice ages: solving the mystery, 2d ed. cambridge, mass. irons, james campbell, 1896. autobiographical sketch of james croll with memoir of his life and work. london. lyell, charles, papers. special collections department, edinburgh university library [cited in endnotes as lyell papers]. lyell, charles, 1866-68. principles of geology, 10th ed. london. milankovic’, milutin, 1998. canon of insolation and the ice-age problem. belgrade. milutin milankovic´ 1879-1958, 1995. european geophysical society. petrovic’, aleksandar, 2002. insolation and climate: milutin milankovic’ and the mathematical theory of climate changes. belgrade: ministry for protection of natural resources and environment of the republic of serbia. tasch, paul, 1986. “james croll and charles lyell as glacial epoch theorists,” earth sciences history 5: 131-33. weart, spencer, 2003. the discovery of global warming. cambridge, mass. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 53 endnotes 1 a common alternative spelling is milankovitch; the outline of croll’s life was derived from his “autobiographical sketch,” in irons, 9-41. 2 croll, 1864, 129; croll, 1867, 443; croll to john herschel, 14 feb. 14, 1865, in irons, 123. 3 the quoted material in this section is from irons, 9-41. 4 irons, 493. 5 croll, in irons, 31-33. 6 ibid., 35. 7 croll to a.r. wallace, 24 july 1880, in irons, 359; croll to charles darwin, 3 nov. 1886, in irons, 431. 8 j. horne in irons, 517. 9 croll to rev. osmond fisher, 28 aug. 1871, in irons, 261-62; and 17 june 1875, in irons, 28283. 10 irons, 493-94. 11 croll 1875, 544-45. 12 croll, 1875, 22. 13 irons, 123. 14 croll 1864, 122-23. 15 irons, 228; j. horne in irons, 510. 16 charles lyell to john herschel, 31 jan. 1865, herschel papers. 17 herschel to lyell, 6 feb. 1865; herschel to lyell, 15 feb. 1865, both in herschel papers. 18 lyell to herschel, 11 feb. 1865, herschel papers. 19 cited in lyell to herschel, 28 april 1865, hershel papers. 20 lyell to darwin, 1 mar. 1866, in darwin and seward. 21 darwin to croll, 19 sept. 1868, irons 200. 22 darwin to croll, 24 nov. 1868, in darwin and seward. 23 croll to lyell, 24 sept. 1866, lyell papers. 24 croll to lyell, 28 sept. 1866, lyell papers. 25 croll to lyell, 30 nov. 1866, lyell papers. 26 croll to lyell, 12 dec. 1866, lyell papers. 27 lyell 1866-68, viii. 28 milankovic’, 1998, 500-02. 29 ibid. 30 milutin milankovic´ 1879-1958, 1995, 158-59; hays, et al., 1976; imbrie and imbrie, 1986. 31 for details, see fleming 1998. 32 g.s. callendar to gilbert plass, 13 may 1957, callendar papers, university of east anglia, for details see fleming 2007; milankovic’ cited in petrovic’, 15. 33 notable exceptions include hamlin and tasch. 34 weart, 5. 35 saturday review, oct. 1887, cited in irons, 438. 36 milankovic’ cited in petrovic’, 3. 37 imbrie and imbrie, 172-73. james croll in context 54 microsoft word 3dorries_nuclear_winter.doc history of meteorology 4 (2008) 41 the ‘winter’ analogy fallacy: from superbombs to supervolcanoes matthias dörries professor for history of science université louis pasteur strasbourg, france in the late 1980s, a few volcanologists created an ill-founded analogy. drawing upon the then-fashionable ‘nuclear winter’ theory, they claimed that certain explosive eruptions in historic times might have led to ‘volcanic winters.’ the nuclear winter debate of the 1980s was about the possibly disastrous effects of a nuclear war on the earth's atmosphere and climate, thus on agriculture, and human beings; the term implied that the dust and soot released into the atmosphere by nuclear bombs and the resulting fires would drop world-wide temperatures enough to turn summer into winter. major effects, it was inferred then, would last for weeks or at most a few months. the exact consequences of nuclear war remained subject to a lively debate lasting throughout the 1980s. modeling was still in its infancy, and uncertainty was high. this was also true of research into the topic of volcanism and climate. the global influence of explosive volcanic eruptions on the earth’s climate was still contested by volcanologists, who in the early 1980s had grudgingly conceded to atmospheric scientists’ argument that it was not volcanic dust, but sulphate aerosols in the stratosphere that affected global atmospheric temperatures (and this, as increasingly became clear, for periods of more than three years). given the uncertainties in both models and the significant differences concerning the causes (dust and soot, versus sulphates) and length (three months to several years), the analogy between ‘nuclear winter’ and ‘ volcanic winter’ was unsubstantiated, having only a vague commonality in a shortterm diminution of global temperatures. in fact, as i will show, the analogy never underwent scrutiny, debate or substantiation, as some volcanologists succeeded in turning a passing speculation into a matter of fact. over the following years, the analogy took on a life of its own and spawned further analogies: large-scale volcanic eruptions turned into ‘supereruptions,’ and ‘supervolcanoes’ became natural equivalents for the human-made ‘superbomb,’ the hydrogen bomb. some volcanologists played up this hype and tendency to self-aggrandizement, not only in their scientific articles, but also in popular tv features. for example, bbc and discovery channel programs on supervolcanoes played out the horrific scenario of a possible repetition of the dörries, ‘winter’ analogy fallacy 42 eruption of the yellowstone volcano in the state of wyoming, which last erupted 600,000 years ago. prominent volcanologists painted a somber picture of future eruptions while ill concealing their excitement at how they had figured out that doom is inevitable. these programs obfuscated the fact that the more dangerous and also more imminent threats came, and still come from humans themselves—and volcanologists tended to play along. the shortcomings of the analogy appear most decisively when considering the larger societal framework to which these concepts pertained: nuclear war results from human decisions; a volcanic eruption doesn't, and there is nothing that we can do to prevent one. the thesis of nuclear winter, therefore, was (and still is) a political appeal to reconsider choices that might affect our lives directly, and about which we could actually do something, today, in this world. volcanic winter, in contrast, might affect future generations in ways that could well dwarf the effects of nuclear bombs, but we don't know when, or to what extentand, given the historical frequency of large-scale explosive eruptions (1 in every 120.000 to 200.000 years), we cannot even be sure that human beings will still be around when the next one strikes.1 this article examines how this analogy infiltrated scientific publications that then served as the scientific foundation for apocalyptic tv entertainment and education. it studies how scientists actually speak about prehistoric large-scale volcanic eruptions in a professional context, and how they address their larger social, political and economic considerations within the constraints of scientific publication. some scientists abstain completely from any discussion of the larger societal impact of their research on large-scale eruptions; others prefer to engage with this issue, sometimes framing their findings in terms of worst-case scenarios for humanity. in the following i will argue that those scientists who created and fostered an unsubstantiated analogy during the late 1980s, also subscribed to a long-term vision of a gloomy future for humanity, creating a fallacy that over the next decades guided and misled them and some of their colleagues in the description and interpretation of the larger societal impact of their scientific results. in pursuing this argument, i narrow my inquiry to scientific studies of the quaternary eruption of toba in sumatra, approximately 74,000 years ago, the most widely studied case of a large-scale historic explosive eruption. in this context, it will be helpful to say a few words about the nineteenth-century eruptions of krakatau (1883) and tambora (1815) and their impact, as these two explosive eruptions have formed the lens through which volcanologists have viewed eruptions in earlier historic and geological eras. i will then explore how the label of 'volcanic winter' was attached to toba during the 1980s, and show how much the 'winter' analogy, which has never undergone scrutiny by scientists, guided some volcanologists’ argumentation during the following decades. explosive volcanic eruptions in historic time the first geologists exploring the island of sumatra came across a huge caldera lake.2 however, they were not able to give a precise date for the eruption that created it, or to evaluate its local and global environmental effects. up to the 1960s, only past eruptions for which written historic records were available could be dated with some accuracy, and volcanological studies aiming at a complete record remained limited to the period after 1500.3 a series of new techniques developed during the 1960s, including radiocarbon dating, pollen counts, ice and sea core drillings, and tree ring analysis, provided important new clues to the earth's deep volcanic and climatic past, ranging back from one hundred thousand to millions of years. these history of meteorology 4 (2008) 43 techniques allowed rough first approximations of the dates of major past events, and revealed formerly unknown eruptions of catastrophic scale. but the new techniques not only allowed chronologies of past events to be established, they also provided data that made it possible to speculate about their size and climatic and environmental impact, although this depended heavily on guesswork and extrapolation from reliable data from more recent volcanic events. in short, the distant volcanic past was a matter of interpretation, and tended to be framed by some volcanologists in terms of catastrophic and worst-case scenarios. the so-called super-eruption of toba, which erupted after the evolutionary appearance of human beings, became a symbol of volcanoes' catastrophic effects on humanity and on the earth's climate, and must be seen against the background of vigorous environmental debates about limited resources and climate change that started during the late 1960s and flourished in the 1970s.4 while toba provided an occasion to evaluate the fragility or robustness of the climatic system and the possible consequences of a super-eruption for vegetation and human civilization, climatologists nevertheless urged caution, as data were sparse and indirect, available only through proxy indicators whose interpretation requires experience and skill. given this uncertainty, scientists returned to studies of recent historic volcanic eruptions, such as krakatau in 1883 and tambora in 1815, from which in a second step they extrapolated the likely consequences of eruptions on a much larger scale, such as toba's. krakatau, located between the islands of sumatra and java, in what was then the netherlands east indies, erupted spectacularly in 1883. preliminary eruptions led up to a violent explosion on august 27, which plunged the island's immediate surroundings into utter darkness, interrupted only by fierce flashes of lightning. altogether, some 30 gigatons of material erupted (corresponding roughly to 11 cubic kilometers of dense rock). of two thirds of the island, there remained only an undersea caldera. the explosive eruption caused tsunami in the oceans that moved towards the coastlines of java and sumatra. these waves, with a period of 100 km, moving with a speed proportional to the square of the depth of the ocean, slowed down near the shorelines, and built up to heights of fourteen to thirty meters. they killed about 36,000 people in some 160 villages along the coastlines. the news of the disaster spread rapidly around the world, and krakatau became a benchmark event in scientific and popular imagination. a flood of pictures and articles filled popular and scientific journals, providing images of the destruction due to the tsunami. krakatau's eruption had world-wide effects, for the first time traceable by means of recently established worldwide scientific networks. for example, the dust (as it was called then) projected in the higher atmosphere started spreading around the whole world, causing spectacular red sunsets, observed in europe, north america and elsewhere. the link between these colorful sunsets and krakatau, several thousand miles away, was not evident at all, but scientists finally reassured a wary public, which had interpreted these as signs of doom.5 their work culminated in a report of the royal society published in 1888, which showed that the socalled smoke stream (then defined by scientists as fine dust projected into the high atmosphere) was the cause of red skies seen throughout the world. the commission in fact determined the expansion of the smoke-stream by tracing observations of the red skies.6 the krakatau disaster triggered research into earlier explosive volcanic eruptions. while an article in nature in 1883 took krakatau to be the “greatest phenomenon in physical geography which has occurred during at least the historical period,” it became evident that there had been a number of previous eruptions with equal or greater global impact.7 the royal society report included a list of all known volcanic eruptions after 1500 and correlated these with unusual atmospheric phenomena. it was in this context that the 1815 eruption of tambora in sumbawa, dörries, ‘winter’ analogy fallacy 44 also in today's indonesia, became interesting. tambora blew up in an eruption that was yet an order of magnitude bigger than krakatau in terms of material erupted. altogether some 140gt (corresponding to 50 cubic kilometers of dense rock) erupted within 3-24 hours.8 the immediate effects of the eruption, including pyroclastic flows at distances of over 20 kilometers from the volcano, killed more than 10,000 people in the vicinity of tambora, and the subsequent famine and diseases due to crop failures (the wet-rice crop was still in the fields at the time of the eruption) and contaminated water caused another 38,000 deaths on the island of sumbawa alone, and further tens of thousands in the neighboring islands of lombok and bali.9 its long-lasting effects were likewise severe; agriculture in the islands recovered only after several years. the eruption of tambora also affected europe. the report of the royal society listed in detail previous glow phenomena analogous to those caused by krakatau, and came to the conclusion that 1815 was the “most remarkable [year] as regards sunset lights recorded up to this date.”10 spectacular red and orange sunsets and twilights were observed in europe three to five months after the eruption. from the northeastern part of the united states came reports of persistent 'dry fog' located high in the atmosphere and unaffected by wind or rain. the possibility that tambora had had an influence on the global climate was discussed from the beginning of the 20th century, when the unusual weather of 1816 was connected for the first time to the 1815 eruption. 1816 became famous for its unusually cold weather; it was often called “the year without a summer,” the “poverty year,” or “eighteen hundred and froze to death.”11 meteorological observations from europe and the northeastern part of the united states and canada showed that there was abundant rain in the particularly chilly summer months of june, july, and august. subsequent crop failures and high food prices led to famine and death in america, switzerland, and ireland. recent estimates of the effect of tambora on climate speak of a drop of the mean summer temperature in the northern hemisphere of about 0.5° celsius in 1816.12 deep time: toba in 1976, dragoslav ninkovich and william l. donn of the lamont-doherty geological observatory in palisades, new york came across the toba eruption when they studied the climatic impact of explosive volcanic eruptions during the last 65 million years, the cenozoic era, with the help of sea cores.13 a comparative study of various sea cores (piston cores of limited depth, and deep sea drilling cores that ranged back some 60 million years) allowed them to look into geologic time. they pointed to toba's caldera dimensions of 30 km to 100 km, and estimated the eruption volume at 2000 km3 (current estimates give 2800 km3 of dense rock equivalent, thus 3500 times the size of tambora).14 toba, they speculated, might have influenced climate by way of feedback on the already existing cooling trend during the cenozoic period. nevertheless, they were careful to stress that to prove this point would require more knowledge of the frequency of such large-scale volcanic eruptions: only an unusually high frequency of eruptions could have a long-term climatic effect. during historic times this has not occurred, and the deep-sea core record has not been adequately correlated on a global scale, nor adequately resolved on the vertical time scale, to determine whether such a high frequency of explosive volcanism occurred during the cenozoic. ... such events, when occurring at history of meteorology 4 (2008) 45 critical times of climate evolution, might have strongly modulated the intensity of climate change.15 ninkovich's work took place at a time when the century-old debate over the causes of ice ages took an interesting and ultimately decisive turn with the orbital explanation by hays et al. in 1976.16 volcanoes no longer figured as primary suspects in long-term cooling periods, but were reduced to an “important second-order” effect.17 two years later, thanks to further analysis of drillings in south asia and south-east asia, ninkovich and his co-authors, among them nicholas shackleton, provided more precise data for the toba ash layer and its distribution over asia. they were now able to date toba's explosive eruption to some 75,000 years ago, and to confirm it as “an order of magnitude larger than any other documented for the quaternary,” the last 1.8 million years.18 another important clue was provided by ice cores, which contained information about sulphur and acid, deposited by major explosive eruptions. in the 1970s, some scientists began to argue that it was the sulphur dioxide released during an eruption and transformed into sulphuric acid droplets that was responsible for the warming of the stratosphere and the cooling of the earth surface temperatures, and therefore for a global effect on climate. many volcanologists considered volcanic dust rather than sulphate aerosols the prime suspect and were reluctant to accept this idea, but data obtained after the eruptions of mt. st. helens (1980) and el chichón (1982), and the globally averaged surface warming after the pinatubo eruption of 1991 ultimately convinced the last skeptics. analysis of the ice cores could lead to estimates of the amount of sulphuric acid released during major volcanic eruptions, and therefore play a role as an indicator of climate modification. given these uncertainties, many research lines were pursued in parallel. more ice cores from various places narrowed down previous dates, and more data from recent volcanic eruptions shed new light on past eruptions. another way of conceiving past events was by way of modeling. modeling of the atmosphere and climate had picked up during the 1970s, and climate modification due to volcanic eruptions had become the test case for modelers. the models were in their infancy, and modelers attributed little certainty to the outcome of their calculations. still, they rapidly increased in sophistication, with scientists eager to feed their computers with available data to test their validity. this allowedthough still with a high degree of uncertaintya better understanding of climate modification due to aerosols released by volcanoes. given the scarcity of major explosive volcanic eruptions, modelers and volcanologists thus had an interest in careful examinations of the effects of past volcanic eruptions in order to adjust and improve their models. volcanic winter in this context, during the mid-1980s, toba became a test case in supporting or discrediting the theory of so-called 'nuclear winter' that fuelled public scientific debate throughout the 1980s. the term 'nuclear winter' was coined by the atmospheric scientist richard turco.19 based on relatively simple computer models, turco and a few collaborators studied the possible consequences of a nuclear war, did a few simulations, and came to the conclusion that due to the dust and smoke, particularly soot, caused by large-scale fires after a nuclear war, temperatures in the northern hemisphere could drop by 15 to 25°c for up to several weeks or months, causing “a dörries, ‘winter’ analogy fallacy 46 harsh 'nuclear winter' in any season.”20 these scenarios were heavily debated in the following years. the nuclear winter idea followed an earlier influential study of “doom,” the 1997 book by walter alvarez, t. rex and the crater of doom. in 1980 the geologist walter alvarez and others had explained the extinction of the dinosaurs by the impact of an asteroid on the earth, evidenced by anomalous levels of iridium deposited 65 million years ago they traced in deep sea limestones in several places around the globe. they argued that an asteroid impact would entail such an accumulation of dust in the stratosphere that, for a few years, photosynthesis and food chains would be severely disrupted. the authors used the term “biological crises” and spoke of “dramatic extinctions.”21 their article caught the attention of the atmospheric scientists p.j. crutzen and j.w. birks, who were invited by the swedish academy to give a talk on the possible impact of nuclear war on the atmosphere.22 their general discussion of the possible climatic effects of asteroids or massive fires caused by nuclear explosions was picked up by turco and other atmospheric scientists, who spoke of a “serious threat to human survivors and to other species,” but were also prudent enough to admit that their conclusions were based on numerous speculations: our estimates of the physical and chemical impacts of nuclear war are necessarily uncertain because we have used one-dimensional models, because the data base is incomplete, and because the problem is not amenable to experimental investigation. we are also unable to forecast the detailed nature of the changes in atmospheric dynamics and meteorology implied by our nuclear war scenarios, or the effect of such changes on the maintenance or dispersal of the initiating dust and smoke clouds. nevertheless, the magnitudes of the first-order effects are so large, and the implications so serious, that we hope the scientific issues raised here will be vigorously and critically examined.23 for the authors the issue was one of such imminent political importance that they deemed scientific involvement necessary, despite many remaining uncertainties. subsequent research by numerous research groups during the 1980s confirmed in principle the 'nuclear winter' theory, but lowered the climatic impact to average coolings between 10° to 20°c in the mid-latitudes, lasting for several weeks, still nevertheless with detrimental environmental effects.24 in this highly politically charged context, three volcanologists, michael r. rampino, stephen self, and richard b. stothers, suggested in a letter to nature in 1985 that a look at toba might be useful as a test case, “as a basis for estimating the climatic effects of nuclear war.” for them, the relatively small historic volcanic eruptions could not serve as comparisons, but only “the largest-scale eruptions.”25 three years later, they published a general article entitled “volcanic winters,” in which they gave a historical review of the climatic effects of all known major explosive eruptions, historic and geologic. the term 'volcanic winter' figured in the title, but was in fact suggested only in passing with no further discussion: “... much larger eruptions may possibly have caused severe 'volcanic winters,' perhaps similar to the recently proposed 'nuclear winter.'“26 further extending the analogy to nuclear weapons, the authors spoke of 'supereruptions,' in an inexplicit analogy to the 'superbomb,' the hydrogen bomb. though the authors pointed to “many uncertainties in the nuclear winter analyses,” and also stressed the significant differences of the “optical properties between volcanic aerosols and black, sooty smoke from urban fires” caused by a nuclear war, they nevertheless pressed the winter analogy. most of their claims relied on extrapolation: assuming that the climatic effects of historic history of meteorology 4 (2008) 47 eruptions would be similar to those of geologic eruptions, they extrapolated from well-studied volcanic eruption values for climate-affecting sulphate aerosols to the 'supereruption' of toba. however, their figures for the sulphate aerosols were only guesses, as no reliable data existed. they concluded that “the atmospheric after-effects of a toba-sized explosive eruption might be comparable to some scenarios of nuclear winter, although the aerosols are expected to have a longer atmospheric residence time than would the nuclear winter smoke.”27 the quotation both affirms the analogy, and then slightly retracts it. indeed, the difference between the optical effects of volcanic fine-ash dust clouds, soot, and sulphate aerosols is crucial, since it was assumed at the time that volcanic dust and soot remained in the atmosphere for only a few weeks, while sulphate aerosols could remain in the stratosphere for years, potentially affecting the climate. while pointing to the limits of their study and admitting their ignorance of possible feedback mechanisms emerging with higher concentrations of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere, rampino, self, and stothers pushed the catastrophic scenario: “it is important to stress ... that these are 'worst-case' situations, made simply by extrapolating a linear increase in mass of aerosols ...”28 they argued that “severe short-term coolings or 'volcanic winters'“ could have “drastic effects on crop yields” and engender “food supply crises in many areas,” and concluded in somber terms: “there is no question that such large eruptions will recur, the only uncertainty lies in where and when.”29 this article from 1988 came closest to something like doomsday science within the constraints of a scholarly journal, being highly speculative about worst-case scenarios, transferring the doomsday picture of a nuclear war to the geologic past without discussion of the validity and limits of this analogy. it also contrasts with the geological work in the 1980s by william i. rose and craig a. chesner of the michigan technical university in houghton, who refrained from any catastrophic discourse in their studies of toba's ash dispersal, magma volume and eruption column height.30 in the following years, this dubious 'winter' analogy took on a life of its own. in a 1992 article on toba, the term ‘volcanic winter’ had become a matter of accepted fact, requiring no further discussion from rampino and self. the authors simply referred to their earlier articlewhich, as i have discussed, had never subjected the analogy to any in-depth discussion. in a 1993 general article on pleistocene population explosions, a staff writer for science, ann gibbons, identified toba as the cause of a significant global temperature drop, leading to a population bottleneck thought to have occurred in human evolution. the two-page article was accompanied by a picture of the toba caldera lake with the catching caption: “big bang? the same volcano that made this lakemt. toba in sumatramay have triggered a climate change that made life tough for early humans about 70,000 years ago.”31 the article triggered a letter from rampino and self, summarizing their evidence for a volcanic bottleneck thesis in a tone of assurance about their results: ...we calculated that climate cooling for 1 or 2 years after the eruption could have been quite severe, representing 'volcanic winter' conditions similar to those proposed in scenarios of nuclear winter following a major nuclear exchange.32 they had now prolonged the volcanic winter to one or two years, though a nuclear winter in turco's sense was projected at the time to last for weeks or months at best, a conflation parallel to their attributing the cooling from the toba eruption summarily to the “dust and aerosols,” without making a clear distinction between the two.33 dörries, ‘winter’ analogy fallacy 48 in the mid 1990s, the anthropologist stanley ambrose of the university of illinois, urbana, who worked in contact with michael rampino, picked up the thesis of volcanic winter to explain the decimation of modern human populations outside a few tropical regions, particularly equatorial africa: volcanic winter may have reduced populations to levels low enough for founder effects, genetic drift and local adaptations to produce rapid population differentiation. if toba caused the bottlenecks, then modern human races may have differentiated abruptly, only 70 thousand years ago.34 ambrose further weakened the winter analogy’s meaning, by further prolonging the 'volcanic winter' to “several years.”35 further details and catastrophic scenarios were provided in a subsequent article written jointly by rampino and ambrose.36 given this potential to wipe out human civilization, super-eruptions caught the public eye and were dramatized on tv under the spectacular title of 'supervolcanoes.' this hugely successful program, first shown on a bbc horizon program on february 3, 2000, featured the supervolcanoes of yellowstone and toba, which had pushed “mankind ... to the edge of extinction ... and … could happen again.”37 the program figured prominent scientists, among them ambrose (university of illinois, urbana), and volcanologists including rampino (new york university), stephen j. sparks (bristol university), and bill mcguire (university college london).38 in the familiar pattern of these tv features, uncertainties in the interpretation of the scientific data were lost to sight, and doom was exaggerated: for example, the toba caldera lake had doubled in size, attaining the “colossal” dimensions of 100 km by 60 km (though 100 km by 30 km is closer to the mark). michael rampino painted a dark future for humankind: if yellowstone goes off again, and it will, it'll be disastrous for the united states and eventually for the whole world. ... we can't really overstate the effect of these huge eruptions. civilisation will start to creak at the seams in a sense. ... it 's really not a question of if it'll go off, it's a question of when because sooner or later one of these large super eruptions will happen.39 it is not clear what inspired michael rampino's optimism that the united states will still exist when yellowstone erupts again. in rampino's research, his 2002 article on “supervolcanoes as a threat to civilizations on earth-like planets,” exemplifies the tendency to stick with the ‘winter’ metaphor, even in the light of new scientific evidence that large-scale volcanic eruptions showed temperature effects lasting much longer than previously thought. for rampino a volcanic winter now implied a “global cooling of 3 to 5°c for several years.” this was a considerable inflation of what he and self had defined as volcanic winter ten years before in the 1992 nature article as a “brief, pronounced regional and perhaps hemispheric cooling caused by the volcanic dust,” or, in 1993, as a “brief, dramatic cooling.”40 the article painted a dire picture of the consequences of super-eruptions, limiting : “the longevity of technological civilizations, “ or, at least, causing a human bottleneck, like toba.41 in the face of possible total destruction of human civilization, rampino suggested a technological fix, the “development of an interplanetary repository for terrestrial civilization”: the repository would be a means of providing a backup system for the planet, fostering recovery of terrestrial civilization in the wake of global disasters such as history of meteorology 4 (2008) 49 asteroid collisions or volcanic catastrophes. this might sound like science fiction, but such a strategy will soon be technologically feasible.42 rampino took the long view. american geophysical union conference in santorini (2002) in june 2002 many of the leading volcanologists and climatologists convened at a chapman conference on “volcanism and the earth's atmosphere,” organized by the american geophysical union. the conference, which i attended, took place in santorini, site of a famous bronze age eruption, and took up the theme of super-eruptions. volcanic eruptions as threats to civilization figured prominently in the five-day program, attended by most of the leading scientists in the field. all four keynote lectures addressed the issue: david pyle of cambridge university proposed a talk on the scale and impact of the santorini eruption; john gratton of the university of wales, aberystwyth, discussed “the role of volcanic eruptions in human history and civilization;” stephen j. sparks of the university of bristol considered “global and environmental effects of supervolcano eruptions: a threat to civilization?”, finally, stephen self of the open university looked at the effects on global climate of flood basalt eruptions. in addition, in a session on explosive and flood basalts supervolcanoes, michael r. rampino discussed “environmental effects of the largest volcanic eruptions: from mass extinctions to threats to civilization,” and gareth s. jones of the hadley centre for climate prediction and research, meteorological office, london) presented a simulation of climatic response to a super-eruption, followed by a series of oral poster introductions dealing with mega-eruptions, among them toba. historic eruptions and supervolcanoes were given considerable time on the last day of the conference, which also addressed the issue of future research priorities. however, the scientists did not speak in unison, as becomes evident on reading their abstracts. i pick out here only the 'catastrophic' talks. given the success of the bbc feature, it seems unsurprising that most of the contributions came from great britain; the feature had clearly left a mark. stephen j. sparks, himself on the program committee for the santorini conference, used the term 'supervolcanoes' without brackets. he also set up a contest: supervolcanoes versus killer asteroids or comets, arguing that the former would likely occur more frequently that the latter, and, for that reason, deserved more attention, as “an area the size of north america can be devastated.” mass starvation would ensue, and the effects might be “sufficiently severe to threaten the fabric of civilization.” sparks suggested confronting the issue within a framework of other problems of global dimensions: problems like global warming, impacts by asteroids and comets, rapid use of natural resources, and nuclear waste disposal are requiring world leaders and governments to address issues which have very long-term consequences for the global community. sooner or later a supervolcanic eruption will happen on the earth and this is an issue which demands serious attention.43 sparks succumbed to the winter analogy fallacy, confounding human-induced with natureinduced changes. while we can actually do something about our rapid use of natural resources and nuclear weapons, and most likely about global warming, and possibly even about asteroids (if we believe in hollywood movies), there will be little we can do when volcanoes erupt in the future. dörries, ‘winter’ analogy fallacy 50 in his contribution, michael rampino repeated the somber assessment of his 2002 article: “prediction, prevention, and mitigation of global volcanic climatic disasters may be potentially more difficult than planetary protection from the threat of large impacts, so that explosive volcanism might limit the longevity of technological civilizations.”44 a poster on “impacts on society from future unrest and/or eruptions from caldera volcanoes in new zealand” gave perhaps the most ominous warnings, of the consequences of a major eruption of taupo or okataina, which have happened at 30,000-year intervals. apart from the destruction of the north island, which would “leave it uninhabitable for a significant period,” the authors (g.s. leonard (lead author), i.a. nairn, d. johnston, c.j.n. wilson, j.w. cole, s. self) also drew a curiously precise picture of the social consequences of warnings given in advance of a possible eruption. they prognosticated “a significant risk of over-reaction amongst new zealand media,” the cancellation of property insurance, population and capital flight, “a general decline in tourism,” and “negative mental and physical health effects on the new zealand population,” and concluded that “the potential physical damage from any indicated future eruption at these volcanoes may be far outweighed by social consequences, driven by perceptions of the largest, worst-case eruption scenarios.”45 however, in a brief report in the transactions of the american geophysical union (eos) on the 2002 meeting, alan robock of the department of environmental sciences at rutgers university, the conference convener, did not mention super-eruptions in his outline of promising future research.46 clive oppenheimer, from the department of geography at cambridge university, was the first to give the existing toba literature a critical review. oppenheimer revived the tradition of british pragmatism and understatement in the title of his 2002 article “limited global change due to ... toba.” he did not engage in catastrophic discourse, and took care to lay emphasis on the uncertainties concerning the toba eruption: there remain major gaps in our understanding of the ... toba eruption that hinder attempts to model its global atmospheric and climatic, and hence human consequences. ... the volcanological uncertainties need to be appreciated before accepting arguments for catastrophic consequences of the toba super-eruption.47 oppenheimer pointed out that figures for the eruption's basic parameters like intensity, height, and magnitude were more or less the result of guesswork. he furthermore made it clear that toba's climatic impact should be judged by the sulphate aerosols, whose amount differed by several magnitudes in various studies. for oppenheimer, globally averaged surface temperatures were more likely to have dropped only 1°c than the 3-5°c proposed by rampino and self. in addition, oppenheimer saw no “firm evidence ... linking ... [toba] to a human demographic crash,” particularly, because there was “no clear picture even of the relative timing of events,” which made it impossible to “establish a causal chain.”48 he pointed out that the year of the eruption was not uniquely cold, and that human beings have survived perhaps several of these super-eruptions. in short, “... a number of conclusions have been based on unreliable assumptions and inferences,” and more research was necessary.49 supervolcanoes and the british government oppenheimer's attempt to cool things down was cut short by british prime minister tony blair. when the december 2004 tsunami struck asia, much discussion focused on the lack of an early warning system, and blair asked for the creation of a group of experts “to advise on the history of meteorology 4 (2008) 51 mechanisms that could and should be established for the detection and early warning of global physical natural hazards.” the body, the natural hazards working group (nhwg), looked primarily at global risks of rare occurrence but high impact. it analyzed current international scientific and political networks that might optimize research and put effective early warning systems in place.50 the group met early in 2005 and submitted its final report in june 2005. it looks at natural hazards ranging from earthquakes, volcanoes, hydrometeorological hazards (tsunami, tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods, mudslides and mudflows) to near earth objects (neos) and space weather. supervolcanoes figure in the final report, although the report stresses the manifold uncertainties in detecting upcoming super-eruptions. governmental interest opened the way for volcanologists to make a point and subsequently to cash in. a working group was formed within the geological society, with stephen sparks, who was a member of the nhwg group, and stephen self as lead authors. they submitted a report to the nhwg in 2005 with the title: super-eruptions: global effects and future threats. in this report, meant for a larger public, the tone is alarmist, sounding a dire warning at very beginning: “it's not a question of 'if'it's a question of 'when...'“51 just as sparks had argued at the conference in santorini, the report tries to convince the reader that supervolcanoes deserve the same public and political attention that near earth objects (asteroids or comets) had received “through hollywood movies.”52 the report concluded that mediumscale supereruptions would be similar to the impact of asteroids of one kilometer diameter, but were “five to ten times more likely to occur within the next few thousand years than an impact.”53 it also stressed that there was “no technical fix for averting super-eruptions,” and that “even science fiction cannot produce a credible mechanism,” but suggested preparedness through “improved monitoring, awareness-raising, and research-based planning.”54 effects in the immediate vicinity of a super-eruption were judged “completely catastrophic” and long-term effects “could result in the ruin of world agriculture, severe disruption of food supplies, and mass starvation;” and thus “threaten the fabric of civilisation.”55 nevertheless, the report admitted also that detailed predictions of the effects of such an eruption were still impossible and that research was still in a “hypothesis stage.”56 other passages of the report, however, paint a direr picture: what might happen if several billion people needed evacuation from most of asia, and, simultaneously, three or four years of severe volcanic winter threatened agriculture throughout north america and europe? this is not fanciful, but the kind of acute problem and inevitable consequence of the next super-eruption.57 given the recent difficulties of the wealthy american government in dealing with an in comparison, minor environmental crisis in new orleans, the prospect of successfully evacuating three billion people certainly does appear fanciful. the report equally falls victim to the 'winter' analogy fallacy, equating issues of manmade global warming and nuclear waste with natural super-eruptions. while the former are “addressed with utmost seriousness by individual governments and the international community,” super-eruptions also “present a severe threat to the global human civilisation of the time and could, in the extreme case, endanger our species.” the authors conclude: “we are certain that humanity will, at some stage, need to deal with this unavoidable issue.”58 in its summary, the report (unsurprisingly) suggested improved funding of interdisciplinary research, the necessity for a better public understanding of the nature of volcanic hazards (why? one might ask), and better international cooperation to deal with the consequences of a super-eruption (as it “could happen tomorrow”or, alternatively, in “ten thousand years.”)59 dörries, ‘winter’ analogy fallacy 52 conclusion public and scientific fascination with volcanic eruptions is nothing new. an advertisement in film daily in 1928 promised exciting footage of an eruption of mt. etna, “the most graphic, awesome and sensational pictures of this cataclysm recorded”: “'as doom came creeping down'. a river of hell bringing inexorable doom! an irresistible flood of disaster engulfing an entire city! crowds fleeing from certain death! buildings crumbling like egg-shells! death and destruction at the hand of wrathful nature!”60 recent tv features build upon this public fascination and fear. for example, an all-capitals advertisement filling a whole page in the new york times of october 4, 2004 read: “mt. st. helens isn't the only volcano you should worry about pompeii: the last day is coming · january 2005 discovery channel entertain your brain.” there is no reason why scientists should not appear in these programs, but they should be aware of the inherent tendency of these programs to frame the issue as apocalyptic, and try to correct it, if possible. instead, some volcanologists have eagerly played exactly this card. the lurid-sounding ‘supervolcano’ or ‘super-eruption’ have now acquired official sanction even within the scientific community (though some still put them in quotation marks), but they also invite scientists to confoundvoluntarily or involuntarilypressing human-produced political issues, like nuclear war and global warming, with questions of the ‘longue durée’ and natural apocalypse that are in the hand of nature, and which will in all likelihood continue to escape human power in the future. during the late 1980s and, especially after the downfall of the berlin wall and the end of the soviet union, some volcanologists saw a chance to substitute nuclear fears with volcanic fears, proposing apocalyptic scenarios of nature’s destructive forces. during the 1980s volcanoes had suffered comparatively from the publicity blitz enjoyed by neos (asteroids), and the extinction of the dinosaurs, which then dominated tv and movie screens. volcanologists increasingly feared to lose out to other scientific fields, especially atmospheric and climate science, which grew considerably in these years. in the end, volcanologists and atmospheric scientists handled their engagement and openness for societal issues quite differently in their scientific work. atmospheric scientists focused on human-made catastrophes, making use of the volcanologists’ studies of large-scale volcanic explosions to provide a better understanding of the disastrous consequences of nuclear war; their scientific work included a political appeal to take actions to prevent further proliferation of nuclear weapons (as later also the case of global warming), and thus apocalypse. volcanologists could only show that future apocalypse is inevitable, but have nothing to offer to stop nature’s wrath.61 history of meteorology 4 (2008) 53 bibliography alvarez, luis w., walter alvarez, frank asaro, and helen v. michel, “extraterrestrial cause for the cretaceous-tertiary extinction,” science, 208 (1980), 1095-1108. ambrose, stanley h., “late pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans,” j. human evolution, 34 (1998), 623-651. badash, lawrence, “nuclear winter: scientists in the political arena,” physics in perspective 3 (2001), 76-105. bemmelen, r.w. van, “the volcanic-tectonic origin of lake toba (north sumatra).” de ingenieur nederlandsch-indie, 6 (1939), 126-140. bbc website horizon, supervolcanoes (last accessed 29 aug. 2008): http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes.shtml transcript: http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes_script.shtml crutzen, p.j. and j.w. birks, “the atmosphere after a nuclear war: twilight at noon,” ambio, 11 (1982), 114-125. gathorne-hardy, f.j. and w.e.h. harcourt-smith, “the super-eruption of toba, did it cause a human bottleneck? “ j. human evolution, 45 (2003), 227-230. gibbons, ann, “pleistocene population explosions,” science, 262 (1993), 27-28. harington, c.r. (ed.), the year without a summer. world climate in 1816. ottawa, canadian museum of science, 1992. hays, j.d., john imbrie, and n.j. shackleton, “variations in the earth's orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages,” science, 194 (1976), 1121-1132. jones, gareth s., jonathan gregory, peter stott, simon tett, and robert thorp, “an aogcm simulation of the climatic response to a volcanic supereruption, “ clim. dyn., 25 (1005), 725-738. lamb, h.h., “volcanic dust in the atmosphere; with a chronology and assessment of its meteorological significance,” phil. trans. r. soc. a, 266 (1970), 425-533. louys, julien, “limited effect of the quaternary’s largest super-eruption (toba) on land mammals from southeast asia,” quat. sci. rev., 26 (2007), 3108-3117. milham, willis i., “the year 1816 the causes of abnormalities,” mon. weather rev., 52 (1924), 563-570. n.n., “the java upheaval,” nature, 6 sep 1883, 443-444. natural hazards working group, the role of science in physical natural hazard assessment. report to the uk government, 2005. website (last accessed 30 april, 2008): http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file8511.pdfninkovich, dragoslav/donn, william l., “explosive cenozoic volcanism and climatic implications,” science, 194 (1976), 899906. ninkovich, d., n.j. shackleton, a.a. abdel-monem, j.d. obradovich, and g. izett, “k-ar age of the late pleistocene eruption of toba, north sumatra,” nature 276 (1978), 574-577. oppenheimer, clive, “limited global change due to the largest known quaternary eruption, toba ≈74 kyr bp?,” quat. sci. rev., 21 (2002), 1593-1609. oppenheimer, clive, “climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: tambora volcano (indonesia) 1815,” prog. phys. geog., 27 (2003), 230-259. rampino, michael r., “supereruptions as a threat to civilizations on earth-like planets,” icarus, 156 (2002), 562-569. dörries, ‘winter’ analogy fallacy 54 rampino, michael r. and stanley h. ambrose, “volcanic winter in the garden of eden: the toba super-eruption and the late pleistocene human population crash,” in: f.w. mccoy and g. heiken (eds.), volcanic hazards and disasters in human antiquity, boulder, geological society of america, 2000, 71-82. rampino, michael r. and stephen self, “volcanic winter and accelerated glaciation following the toba super-eruption,” nature, 359 (1992), 50-52. rampino, michael r. and stephen self, “climate-volcanism feedback and the toba eruption of ~74,000 year ago,” quaternary research 40 (1993), 269-280. rampino, michael r. and stephen self, “bottleneck in human evolution and the toba eruption,” science, 262 (1993), 1955. rampino, michael r., stephen self, and richard b. stothers, “climatic effects of volcanic eruptions,” nature, 313 (1985), 272. rampino, michael r., stephen self, and richard b. stothers, “volcanic winters,” ann. rev. earth planet. sci., 16 (1988), 73-99. robock, alan, “nuclear winter,” in: stephen h. schneider (ed.) encyclopedia of weather and climate, vol. 2, new york, oxford univ. press, 1996, 534-536. robock, alan, “blowin' in the wind: research priorities for climate effects of volcanic eruptions,” eos, 83 (2002), 472. robock, alan and clive oppenheimer (eds.), volcanism and the earth’s atmosphere, geophysical monograph 139, washington, dc, american geophysical union, 2003. robock, alan, luke oman, and georgiy stenchikov, owen b. toon, charles bardeen, and richard p. turco, “climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts,” atm. chem. phys., 7 (2007), 2003-2012. robock, alan, luke oman, and georgiy stenchikov, “nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: still catastrophic consequencesm” j. geophys. res., 112 (2007), d13107, doi: 10.1029/2006jd008235. rose, w.i. and c.a. chesner, “dispersal of ash in the great toba eruption, 75 ka,” geology, 15 (1987), 913-917. self, stephen, “the effects and consequences of very large explosive volcanic eruptions,” phil. trans. r. soc. a, 364 (2006), 2073-2097. sparks, s., s. self, et al., super-eruptions: global effects and future threats. report of a geological society of london working group (2nd edn.), london, geological society, 2005. stommel, h. and e. stommel, volcano weather, the story of 1816, the year without a summer, newport, r.i., seven seas press, (1983). stothers, r.b., “the great tambora eruption in 1815 and its aftermath,” science 224 (1984), 1191-1198. symons, g.j., the eruption of krakatoa and subsequent phenomena, london, royal society, 1888. turco, r.p., o.b. toon, t.p. ackermann, j.b. pollack, and c. sagan, “nuclear winter: global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions,” science, 222 (1983), 1283-1292. turco, r.p., o.b. toon, t.p. ackermann, j.b. pollack, and c. sagan, “climate and smoke: an appraisal of nuclear winter,” science, 247 (1990), 166-176. volcanism and the earth's atmosphere, abstracts, the american geophysical union, chapman conference, santorini, 17-21 june, 2002. weart, spencer, the discovery of global warming, cambridge, ma: harvard univ. press, 2003. history of meteorology 4 (2008) 55 notes 1 large-scale explosive eruptions are defined here as the release of more than 450 cubic kilometers of magma. self, “effects and consequences”(2006), 2074-5. 2 bemmelen, “origin of lake toba” (1939). 3 lamb, “volcanic dust” (1970). 4 weart, global warming (2003). 5 “two sunsets on the same evening,” new york times, 8 dec 1883 6 symons, krakatoa (1888). 7 n.n., “the java upheaval,” nature, 6 sep 1883, 443. 8 oppenheimer, “climatic, environmental and human consequences” (2003), 234. 9 ibid., 248-253. 10 symons, krakatoa (1888), 394. 11 milham, “the year 1816” (1924), 563. stommel and stommel, volcano weather (1983). stothers, “the great tambora eruption” (1984). harrington, year without summer (1992). 12 oppenheimer, “climatic, environmental and human consequences” (2003), 255. 13 ninkovich and donn, “explosive cenozoic volcanism “ (1976). 14 oppenheimer, “limited global change” (2002), 1593. 15 ninkovich and donn, “explosive cenozoic volcanism” (1976), 905-906 16 hays et al., “variations in the earth's orbit” (1976). 17 ninkovich and donn, explosive cenozoic volcanism (1976), 905. 18 ninkovich et al., “k-ar age” (1978), 574. 19 turco et al., “nuclear winter” (1983). robock, “nuclear winter” (1996). badash, “nuclear winter” (2001), 87. 20 turco et al., “nuclear winter” (1983), 1290. 21 alvarez et al., “extraterrestrial cause” (1980), 1095. 22 crutzen and birks, “nuclear war” (1982), 114-125. badash, “nuclear winter” (2001), 80. 23 turco et al., “nuclear winter” (1983), 1283, 1290. 24 turco et al., “climate and smoke” (1990), 166. 25 rampino, self and stothers, “climatic effects” (1985), 272. 26 rampino, self and stothers, “volcanic winters” (1988), 74. 27 ibid., 89-90. 28 ibid., 91. 29 ibid., 94. 30 rose and chesner (1987). 31 gibbons, “population explosions” (1993), 27. 32 rampino and self, “bottleneck in human evolution” (1993), 1955. 33 ibid. 34 ambrose, “late pleistocene human population bottlenecks” (1998), 623. 35 ibid., 632. 36 rampino and ambrose, “volcanic winter in the garden of eden” (2000). 37 bbc, supervolcanoes, http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes.shtml 38 the tone and level was set by mcguire, himself director of the benfield hazard research centre at ucl, and chief scientific consultant on 'supervolcanoes':”when you actually dörries, ‘winter’ analogy fallacy 56 sit down and think about these things [supervolcanoes] they are absolutely apocalyptic in scale. ... you're getting a, an eruption [yellowstone] which we can barely imagine. we've never seen this sort of thing.” bbc, supervolcanoes, transcript, http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes_script.shtml 39 bbc, supervolcanoes, transcript, http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes_script.shtml 40 rampino, “supereruptions” (2002), 563. rampino and self, “volcanic winter and accelerated glaciation” (1992), 50. rampino and self, “climate-volcanism feedback” (1993), 269. the analogy is also not saved by recent modelling of nuclear winter scenarios with an atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model, the first studies since the 1980s, which supersedes considerably previous estimations and indicates that the length of the effects of nuclear war has to be extended to at least a decade, as the smoke is lofted far into the stratosphere and lasts much longer than volcanic aerosols, a circumstance that could not be captured by the simple models of the 1980s. robock et al. “climatic consequences” (2007) and robock et al. “ nuclear winter revisited” (2007). 41 rampino, “supereruptions” (2002), 562. 42 ibid., 566. 43 volcanism and the earth's atmosphere, abstracts (2002), 37. 44 ibid., 45. 45 ibid., 47-48. 46 robock, “blowin' in the wind” (2002). see also the publication that came out of the meeting : robock and oppenheimer, volcanism and the earth's atmosphere (2003). 47 oppenheimer, “limited global change” (2002), 1593. for critical views of the bottleneck theory, see gathorne-hardy “super-eruption of toba” (2003), and, on the effects on mammals, louys, “limited effect” (2007). 48 ibid., 1605. 49 ibid., 1606. 50 see: national hazards working group, the role of science (2005)) 51 sparks and self, super-eruptions (2005), 1. 52 ibid., 4. 53 ibid., 1. 54 ibid., 1-2. 55 ibid., 2 and 12. 56 ibid., 14-15. 57 ibid., 20. 58 ibid. 59 ibid. 60 film daily (1928), 5. i am grateful to emily thompson for drawing my attention to this advertisement. 61 for a more recent study on the climatic effects of super-eruptions, see, for example, jones, “aogcm simulation” (2005). microsoft word 00frontmatter copy.doc history of meteorology volume 3, 2006 james rodger fleming, editor-in-chief history of meteorology is the peer-reviewed journal of the ichm © ichm 2006 issn 1555-5763 proceedings of the international commission on history of meteorology history of meteorology 3 (2006) ii contents pages introduction, call for papers, and style guide ii-iv craig martin (usa), experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions of the earth’s climates during the renaissance 1-15 anders persson (sweden), hadley’s principle: understanding and misunderstanding the trade winds 17-42 james rodger fleming (usa), james croll in context: the encounter between climate dynamics and geology in the second half of the nineteenth century 43-53 robert m. white (usa), the making of noaa, 1963-2005 55-63 book launch, the callendar effect (2007) and intimate universality (2006) 65 introduction the third annual volume of history of meteorology includes four articles by both seasoned and new contributors and an experiment in streaming video. craig martin argues that renaissance aristotelianism was a flexible natural philosophy capable of integrating new experiences into a larger theoretical framework. rather than being authoritarian, it served as the best guide available. based on sailors’ reports from southern regions, commentators questioned the existence of an uninhabitable “torrid zone” and argued that not all important truths, such as descriptions of the earth’s climate, were to be found only by reading texts. anders persson has given us a history of understanding and misunderstanding of “hadley’s principle” since 1735 with an emphasis on german and english interpretations of the trade winds and the general circulation in the nineteenth century. my own article reviews the life and work of james croll, author of an astronomical theory of climate change and arguably one of the first practitioners of “climate dynamics.” it examines the challenge that croll posed for charles lyell and explores the phenomena of theory formation, eclipse, and reemergence. robert m. white has provided a first-hand account of the “making of noaa, 1963-2005” from the authoritative perspective of its first administrator. a link to streaming video documents the book launch of the callendar effect (american meteorological society, 2007) and intimate universality (science history publications/usa, 2006) at the woodrow wilson international center for scholars with participants fleming, roger d. launius, michael maccracken, and kent hughes. the ichm is seven years old, the same age as the 21 st century. it is in good hands under the leadership of president cornelia lüdecke, vice-president vladimir jankovic, and secretarytreasurer doria grimes. please browse the homepage http://www.meteohistory.org for announcements and other links, and consider joining us in pursuit of “scholarship and friendship” in the history of meteorology, climatology, and related sciences. james r. fleming, washington, dc. history of meteorology 3 (2006) iii history of meteorology call for papers papers on the history of meteorology, climatology, and related sciences are now being accepted for consideration in history of meteorology 4 (2007). articles should be based on original research and present a novel thesis. they must be engaging, clearly written, and fully documented, following the style guide below. all papers will be subject to peer review. authors are reminded that international and interdisciplinary perspectives are encouraged and articles should engage social, cultural, and/or intellectual themes and contexts. because this is an electronic journal, it is possible to publish color illustrations and experiment with alternative media such as audio and video files and databases. session conveners are invited to propose special sections or issues of the journal. history of meteorology has a stable url at http://meteohistory.org and has been assigned issn 1555-5763 by the u.s. library of congress. it is currently being indexed by two leading services: isis current bibliography of the history of science (from which citations are posted online on the rlg history of science and technology database) and meteorological and geoastrophysical abstracts. the deadline for submissions for volume four is 1 october 2007, but earlier notice is appreciated. queries or manuscripts should be directed to the editor-in-chief, james r. fleming, e-mail jfleming@colby.edu history of meteorology 3 (2006) iv style guide manuscripts for history of meteorology are to be submitted electronically to the editor in ms word format (please ask in advance about other formats). before publication, authors must certify that their work is original and that all necessary permissions have been acquired. format paper size: u.s. letter margins: 1.0 inch on all sides headers and footers: 0.5 inch (left blank except for preliminary pagination) line spacing: double font: text: 12 point times new roman; captions: 11 point times new roman section headers: use of bold section headers is encouraged paper length: less than 10,000 words, including citations. ask if your manuscript is longer than this. figures and tables figures must be provided as separate image files (jpeg or tiff) with a resolution of at least 150 dpi. both figures and tables must be mentioned in the text (e.g. fig. 1) before their appearance in the paper. figure captions appear below the figure in 11-point type with a hanging indent: fig. 1. caption descriptive of the image but does not repeating what was said in the text of the paper. image courtesy of (or by permission of) xxx. tables must be carefully formatted in advance by the author. titles appear above the table in 11point type: table 1. title of table (handing indent if it is a long title). citations citations may be either endnotes, numbered sequentially, or references (author date) listed alphabetically at the end of the paper. any major style, consistently applied, is acceptable. each citation must provide name of author/editor, full title of the work, place, publisher, date, and page references. titles of books and journals are italicized, not underlined. archival and manuscript material must contain a full description in the first citation. use of abbreviations (e.g. amer. j. sci.) is encouraged, as is the short reference format for subsequent citations of a text (e.g. petterssen, weather forecasting, 12.). endnotes are not meant to be discursive. microsoft word 1. martin, torrid zones.doc history of meteorology 3 (2006) 1 experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions of the earth’s climates during the renaissance craig martin oakland university rochester, michigan, usa martin@oakland.edu abstract it is widely perceived that the discovery of the new world contributed to the eventual downfall of aristotelian natural philosophy. this discovery demonstrated the unsound nature of aristotle’s view that there exists an uninhabitable “torrid zone” in the area between the tropic of capricorn and the tropic of cancer. it has been argued, among contemporary historians of science, that travels through this region of the earth created doubt in aristotle’s authority and thus led people away from the sterile and bookish natural philosophy taught by scholastics. in fact, during the first decades of the sixteenth century, commentators on aristotle, such as pietro pomponazzi and agostino nifo, were informed, through sailors’ reports, of travels in southern regions and, as a result, questioned the existence of a torrid zone. renaissance aristotelianism was flexible and capable of integrating new experiences into a larger theoretical framework; experiential evidence that the “torrid zones” did not exist was utilized by a number of scholars who taught aristotelian natural philosophy in the years after columbus’ first crossing of the atlantic ocean. experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions 2 introduction michiele monaldi: how did it happen that aristotle was not capable of knowing that the entire earth is habitable? nicolò vito di gozze: the philosopher could not have known this through natural reason; but we came to recognize all of this through experience. —di gozze, 1584. 1 that the scientific revolution chronologically followed upon the discovery of the new world is widely perceived as not coincidental. columbus’ voyages fundamentally shook many received notions among europeans of the sixteenth century. encounters with previously unknown peoples altered conceptions of the nature of mankind; and collections of new world flora and fauna sparked wonder, making ancient botanical and zoological writings incomplete if not obsolete. 2 it was not just that the explorations of the late-fifteenth and sixteenth centuries revealed anomalies to accepted frameworks of knowledge, but that the new world itself was one huge anomaly. in kuhnian terms, the result of such an anomaly could not but cause a crisis in the accepted paradigm. according to reijer hooykaas, it was the exploration of the new world that led to greater emphasis on “the fact” among intellectuals, which paved the way for modern science. 3 thus authorities, such as aristotle and other ancients, ceased to be trusted, and doubt reigned, as evidenced by montaigne and the renewal of pyrrhonism, creating a vacuum of knowledge. the traditional story tells us that bacon, descartes, galileo, and boyle, among others, filled this void by rejecting aristotle and in his place created an experimental philosophy that was confirmed by mathematics and eventually reached its apotheosis in the newtonian synthesis. 4 thus the discovery of the new world was preparatory for the scientific revolution. by now, this story has been partially disassembled. the break between traditional natural philosophy and those that emerged in the seventeenth century was not clean; and that the revolution took one century, if not two, suggests that the scientific revolution was not a rapid overturning of the accepted order in the same way that the american, french, and russian revolutions were. 5 nevertheless, the belief that the emergence of modern science resulted from the rejection of aristotle’s thought as the absolute truth endures. 6 even though a number of aristotelian positions and concepts were rejected in the seventeenth century, the idea of authority is often misconstrued, so that aristotelians are portrayed as defending the theories found in texts at all costs. to the contrary, aristotelianism was extremely flexible, and the rejection of one or more tenets was not sufficient to send the entire edifice of scholastic learning tumbling down. this flexibility is especially evident for the field of meteorology because it was viewed as a conjectural science that dealt with intractable phenomena. meteorological theories were seen as provisional and subject to reformulation. as a result, many renaissance university professors who commented on aristotle’s meteorology had no problem rejecting aristotelian positions if experience contradicted them. for them, authority was evidence, not the final answer. a case in point regards the effect that columbus’ voyages had in altering the conception of the size of the earth and its division into climatic zones. while columbus did not prove that the earth was spherical, an idea already accepted since antiquity, exploration in the new world called into question the extent of the habitable area of the earth. aristotle had addressed the earth’s climates in meteorology ii.5, where he argued that the terrestrial globe should be divided into five belts or climates that wrapped around the world’s circumference. assuming that the history of meteorology 3 (2006) 3 borders of the climates must reflect the astronomical division of the earth, aristotle defined the borders by the two tropics and the arctic and antarctic circles. two of these zones, thought to be habitable, were called oikoumenai; one lies in the north, between the tropic of cancer and the arctic circle, and a corresponding region lies in the southern hemisphere. in between the tropics, lies a torrid zone, too hot for the streams and pastures necessary for human life; 7 and, in the extreme latitudes, both northern and southern, the cold prevents human habitation. during the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries reports from sailors about habitations along the coast of africa and in the new world made the torrid zone a potential target for antiaristotelians. the readiness of some, including columbus himself, to reject traditional understandings of the size of the earth and the nature of its continents is portrayed in contrast to the supposed hardheadedness of aristotelians who were trapped by theory and could not adjust their bookish views to observational evidence. anthony grafton points to the jesuit scholar and traveler, josè de acosta, whose 1580 treatise on the new world, described his being so cold while traveling in the so-called torrid zone that he needed to put on more clothing. as a result, he wrote: “what could i do then but laugh at aristotle’s meteorology and his philosophy? for in that place and that season, where everything, by his rules, should have scorched by the heat, i and my companions are cold.” 8 de acosta’s rejection of aristotle supports grafton’s claim that: “between 1550 and 1650 western thinkers ceased to believe that they could find all important truths in ancient books.” de acosta certainly was willing to challenge aristotle’s meteorology on a number of points, but his treatment of ancient authority is not as dramatic as it might appear. he does not present aristotle as generally risible for his fallibility, nor did he reject aristotle wholesale, but called him merely incorrect, “the author of this view [regarding the torrid zones] is aristotle, great explorer of nature, but who in this case wanders far from the truth.” 9 de acosta, however, was not the first to reject the existence of torrid zones or antipodal habitations on the basis of experience. a few years earlier, francisco sanchez wrote a far more scathing indictment of aristotelian theories of the earth in his skeptical work, that nothing is known. in his invective, sanchez cited the common experience of travelers to new world to show that the theory of uninhabitable climatic zones was untenable and therefore aristotelian science was incomplete and fallible: yesterday you said in the light of your complete scientific knowledge or rather, knowledge that was complete even long ages ago that the entire earth was surrounded by the ocean; and you divided it into three all-embracing parts, namely asia, africa, and europe. but what are you to say today? a new world has been discovered new realities in new spain or in the west and east indies. moreover, you used to say that the southern zone, situated below the equator, was uninhabitable on account of heat, but that close to the poles, and the extreme polar zones, the same thing was true because of the cold. experience [experientia] has now shown both these statements to be false. construct another "science," then, for your first is now false. so how can you maintain that your propositions are eternally valid, incorruptible, infallible, and incapable of being otherwise you miserable worm, who scarcely know, and are scarcely even capable of knowing, what you are and whence you come and whiter you are going? 10 even though sanchez painted an entertaining picture of know-nothing scholars convinced of their infallibility and incapable of reacting to new observations, it must be asked whether this picture resembles the reality of sixteenth-century traditional natural philosophy. was sanchez parodying fictionalized pompous schoolteachers or the cutting edge of aristotelian natural experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions 4 philosophy? moreover, before 1550, did western thinkers really think that every important truth could be found in books, rather than in experience? and, was it really not until the second-half of the sixteenth century that aristotelians began to notice the discovery of the new world? the torrid zones: doubt, conjecture, and revision while the idea of the torrid zone was widespread from antiquity through the renaissance, aristotle’s authority was hardly hegemonic. other ancient authors elaborated and questioned aristotle’s division of the earth and his belief in two habitable zones. belief in a torrid zone was rampant, even though some ancients such as crates of mallos (fl. 150 a.d.) and macrobius (5 th c. a.d.) envisioned four oikoumenai. aristotle’s view that humans live in the southern hemisphere, however, found an uneven reception. some affirmed aristotle’s position, and others considered the possibility of human life in the southern hemisphere either dubious or unanswerable. for example, the geographer strabo (ca. 63 b.c.23 a.d.), believing the atlantic ocean to be too large to sail across, refused to comment on the possibility of life on the antipodes. on the other hand, cicero (106-43 b.c.), in the dream of scipio, wrote of a different race of antipodal men who had no contact with those of the northern oikoumene. 11 perhaps the most significant elaborations of aristotle’s geography in late antiquity came in the persons of claudius ptolemy (85-165 a.d.), an astronomer and geographer, and augustine (354-430 a.d.), a church father. using reports from travelers, ptolemy expanded the range of the habitable zone and divided it into seven climates. the northern border of the torrid zone, however, was not the tropic as it was for aristotle, but the parallel on which the city meroe lies, which is approximately 165/8 degrees north. ptolemy also contended that the polar regions are uninhabitable, and that the parallel which runs through thule, an apparently mythical city, that was believed to be somewhere around 63 degrees north and perhaps on what are called today the shetland islands. 12 ptolemy’s arguments are not based on mathematics, despite his skill in that field, but rather are informed by histories and empirical evidence and aristotle’s general schema. like aristotle, ptolemy conjectured symmetry and believed that the southern hemisphere was habitable could be divided into the same climates as those in the north. 13 the division of the earth into specific zones had ramifications not just for geography and meteorology, but also for theology. augustine dismissed the belief that there was an inhabited southern continent and that there could exist a race of men permanently separated from the north. a human population on distant continents, however, presents problems for the belief in the single creation and common descent of all humans. the implausibility of the navigation of oceans, suggests that god created counterparts to adam and eve in the southern hemisphere, if it is inhabited. furthermore, a just god would not create people in an area inaccessible to christ’s apostles, because they would be damned as a result of unfair conditions. 14 thus for augustine, scripture was proof that the antipodes must be free of humans. a melding of augustine’s and aristotle’s views resulted in the common medieval belief that there was only one inhabited zone, which corresponded to the northern orb where europe is found; a torrid zone, too hot to support human life, borders the oikoumene to the south. in the late middle ages, the augustinian/aristotelian position dominated conceptions of the nature of the earth and its climates and is found in the, sphere of sacrobosco, the most common astronomical text book of the middle ages, and its commentaries. the author of this work, john sacrobosco, a scholar from the late 12 th or early 13 th century, about whom little is known, slightly altered the placement of ptolemy’s seven climes, agreeing that the southern border was history of meteorology 3 (2006) 5 at the latitude of meroe, but maintaining that the northern-most clime was marked by the parallel at 50 degrees north. although the text is slightly unclear, he seems to have believed that the southern hemisphere mirrors the northern. 15 for sacrobosco, these limits to the oikoumenai were not to be observed as strict rules. he admitted that in the polar regions there might be islands and human habitations, but that the living conditions must be so bad that the area does not deserved the category of a clime. 16 michael scot, a famed translator and scholar of the first decades of the thirteenth century, revised sacrobosco’s position by adding augustine in his commentary on the sphere. after outlining augustine’s argument, he concluded that the antipodes must not be habitable, because such a proposition contradicts religion (contra fidem). 17 we must be careful not to ascribe too much homogeneity to either the ancient or medieval positions regarding the extent of the habitable earth. columbus read about the augustinian, aristotelian, and sacroboscian positions in his annotated copy of pierre d’ailly’s imago mundi and disbelieved the claim that the torrid zone was uninhabitable because of reports from portuguese sailors who had crossed the equator while sailing down the western coast of africa. 18 columbus’ disbelief, however, was probably not shocking to his contemporaries, but found company in highly authoritative texts. for example, albertus magnus (1206-1280) cited reports of cities in the distant south. 19 pietro d’abano’s conciliator (ca. 1310) contains a detailed quaestio over the question of the habitableness of the torrid zones and areas below the equator, in which he discussed a plurality of views, which included accounts of very southern cities in india. pietro concluded that indeed some places in the equatorial region are uninhabitable and that it was not determined whether anyone lives below the equator, thus leaving the question open to new evidence. 20 while ancient and medieval scholars questioned that the existence of an uninhabitable torrid zones was proven, during the renaissance doubts grew among aristotelian commentators, in part, because of the epistemological status of the field of meteorology. some of the leading aristotelian scholars interpreted aristotle’s meteorology as advocating the conjectural nature of scientific knowledge, thereby recognizing limits to natural philosophy. well before de acosta’s travels, leading aristotelian commentators, such as pietro pomponazzi in the 1520s, noted that the voyages of discovery brought further doubt on the existence of torrid zones and argued that experience trumps the theories found in ancient texts. for most renaissance scholars, authoritative writings were sources of evidence, which at times contradicted each other as well as experience. authority in and of itself did not deliver unadulterated truth, but was an aid to discovering it. a number of medieval and renaissance aristotelians neither feared contradicting aristotle, nor thought their science was infallible. for these scholars, the reports of sailors threw the existence of uninhabitable zones into doubt. the rejection of this tenet, however, was not seen as fatal to natural philosophy in general and did not create a crisis that demanded a paradigm shift. aristotle’s philosophy provided a framework for natural philosophy in the middle ages and renaissance. this framework was flexible, oftentimes providing methods for inquiry rather than dogma. the prohibition of metabasis is one of these guiding principles. based on the posterior analytics, the principle of the prohibition of metabasis contends that explanations should be appropriate to the phenomena that they explain, and that methods from one subject cannot be applied to other subjects. 21 thus different fields of inquiry require different methods and confer corresponding degrees of certainty. for example, deductive arguments elucidate the nature of mathematical entities, such as lines and shapes, but cannot be applied to politics, which although ordered, to a degree, cannot be known with the same certainty as mathematics. natural experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions 6 objects, therefore, can be known with relative degrees of certainty. geometry can describe accurately the stars and planets that have eternal regular motion. the sublunary world, however, is characterized by chaotic and episodic change. as a result, according to aristotle, meteorological knowledge is hypothetical and approximate. meteorology stood out among subjects in aristotelian natural philosophy because of its intractability. for aristotle, meteorology was not predictive but examined change in inanimate substances in the sublunary region. topics that were included in this field were: precipitation, rainbows, comets (which were thought to be sublunary), meteors, earthquakes, the motions of seas and rivers, and underground springs. like all of his natural philosophy, the goal of meteorology was to give the causes of phenomena. unlike for much of the natural world, however, the explanations for meteorology were almost entirely based on material and efficient cause, not the formal and final causes that were preeminent in most of his works. 22 according to aristotle, the four elements (earth, water, air, fire) compose two exhalations, one wet and vaporous, the other, hot and smoky, that circulate between the surface of the earth and the moon, which is the liminal point between terrestrial and celestial realms. the elements and the exhalations are the material causes of meteorological phenomena. the efficient cause comes from the motions of the celestial bodies, in particular the sun, which drives the exhalations and causes their transformations. these transformed bodies remained imperfect, never truly gaining a new substantial form. aristotle’s meteorology stressed irregular and rare phenomena, such as meteors, comets, floods, volcanic eruptions, and typhoons, which, because of their episodic nature, defy certain explanation. he wrote: “of these things some puzzle us, while others admit of explanation in some degree.” 23 [check quotation] the theory of the dual exhalations does not derive from syllogistic reasoning, but from abduction, i.e., inference to the best explanation, as cynthia freeland has argued. 24 the exhalations provide conceptual unity to a wide range of phenomena, that otherwise might be considered disparate. other ancient thinkers also noted the difficulty of accurately explaining meteorological phenomena; for this field both theophrastus (d. 287 b.c.) and lucretius (99-55 b.c.) gave a number of possible explanations in their meteorological discussions rather than a definitive account. 25 thus in antiquity, meteorological queries were frequently resolved only in a provisional manner. medieval and renaissance meteorology took aristotle’s meteorology as its guide and starting point. the subject of meteorology was central to aristotelian thought. medieval and renaissance scholars typically believed that the meteorology was the fourth part of natural philosophy; it follow the physics, de caelo, and de generatione et corruptione and preceded the biological and psychological works. scholars developed and expounded upon the subject in lecture courses at universities, the content of which can be known from their written commentaries and quaestiones derived from william of moerbeke’s thirteenth-century latin translation of the text. teaching of the meteorologica was a standard part of italian university curriculum at least as far back as the initial years of the fifteenth century if not earlier. according to the 1405 university statutes at bologna, the meteorology was to be taught in the second year as part of the classes in ordinary philosophy. 26 although the commentaries that emerged from these courses follow the text of aristotle, they were by no means uncritical or unoriginal; nor were the theories developed from them so univocal to suggest that the field of meteorology was considered to be complete and certain, as sanchez described it for aristotelians. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 7 by the first decades of the sixteenth century, aristotle’s own claim of puzzlement with regard to meteorological phenomena inspired scholars in italy, who used the meteorology to support the claim that natural philosophy was a conjectural science. this view clearly emerged in the works of agostino nifo (1473-1538), a writer who is most noted for his participation in debates over the immortality of the soul and his role in advancing the so-called regressus method in natural philosophy, a method that combined induction and deduction, and which some scholars have seen to be the historical root of the “scientific method.” 27 it is unnecessary to anachronistically identify the regressus theory with the modern notion of “scientific method,” to appreciate its sophistication, and its importance in epistemology from galen to galileo. the theory argued that through sense perception, it was possible to establish was called quia, “the what there is,” or natural effects, and thus establish basic empirical truths about nature. using this knowledge as a foundation, induction led to an explanation, called the propter quid, that is, the “why” that gave an account for the quia. an understanding of the propter quid, could then serve as a foundation for deduction of further effects, which would in term lead to the formulation of a more comprehensive explanation. it was in this way that natural science was thought to be able to progress over time, and that natural philosophy was, to a certain degree conjectural. nifo relied on the wavering nature of the field of meteorology as evidence of the uncertainty of the natural sciences. nifo’s commentaria in libris aristotelis meteorologicis (first published in 1531, it was written in 1523) was the first sixteenth-century exposition on meteorology to be published in italy. it enjoyed wide readership and went through more editions than any other commentary on this book in the sixteenth century. 28 he used meteorology, and aristotle’s confession of the inability to understand all causes to distinguish the natural sciences from the mathematical. he writes: “it must be said that natural science is not a science simpliciter, such as the mathematical sciences are, but is a science that explains the why (propter quid). [check quotation] it is the science of finding the causes which can be held through a conjectural syllogism, that gives the propter quid of the effect.” this account of the effect however is not definitive. he supported this claim by his use of aristotle’s meteorology and argued that, “aristotle in the book of the meteorology concedes that he does not provide the true causes of natural effects, but that which is possible through conjecture.” 29 thus conclusions about the causes of meteorology, unlike mathematics, are at best tentative, and subject to revision if there are changes in the understanding of the nature of meteorological effects. for nifo, contrary to sanchez, meteorology is hardly infallible but rather open to new experiential findings. experience, during the middle ages and renaissance, was far broader for natural philosophers than the narrow definitions of experiment that scientists have since adopted. what fell under this rubric and was appropriate as evidence included not just personal observations or contrived tests, but also truths about the natural world that were thought to be universally agreed upon and experiences of others either contained in books or transmitted by word of mouth. reports made by navigators and their crew, having been deemed reliable, were sufficient evidence for questioning and revising aristotle. nifo’s rejection of the aristotle’s division of the world into habitable and uninhabitable zones is a good example of one stage of the application of the method of regressus. according to nifo, when aristotle claimed that the pole regions and the tropics were uninhabited he did so without consulting history books (historia). following alexander of aphrodisias, the aristotelian commentator from the second-century a.d., nifo claimed that perhaps in aristotle’s time there were no reports that contradicted his schema. by nifo’s time, however, there were experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions 8 such accounts; sailors had reported that people do live close to the north pole, above sixty degrees, “thus what aristotle attempted to establish by conjecture, is not verified by history.” 30 nevertheless, nifo maintained the rectitude of the barrenness of the torrid zone. even though, even during alexander’s time, it was known that ethiopians lived in this zone, the zone itself could not be declared habitable in a strict sense because they live, “almost beyond the norms of nature.” 31 thus nifo rejected some of aristotle’s conjectures because of experience, while the general framework persisted and the meaning of habitable zone could be interpreted so that it included only the regions where people could live well and not the areas where ethiopians allegedly lived poorly. the insistence on the conjectural nature of knowledge about the physical world, that nifo held, was even stronger in the thought of his rival and contemporary pietro pomponazzi (14621524). pomponazzi spent most of his professional life as first a professor at padua and then bologna. famed for his brushes with ecclesiastical authority, for his denial that the immortality of the soul could be proven philosophically, rather it was an article of faith not reason, he moved from a position of fideism to that of near skepticism, which runs through the lectures on aristotelian text that his gave in the last years of his life at bologna. 32 these courses treated aristotle’s biological works and the meteorology. 33 despite his more than occasional pride in uncovering what he considered to be the true opinion of aristotle, pomponazzi actively encouraged his students to doubt accepted knowledge. such doubting was directed toward aristotle and his interpreters. his doubts primarily arose from contradictions among texts, interpretations, logic, and experience. and unlike earlier masters of textual conciliation, pomponazzi admitted that he could not solve all of the contradictions. furthermore, he argued that the best way to solve a number of these contradictions is to claim that aristotle is wrong. in his view, the job of the philosopher is to discover the truth for himself, independent from past authorities. 34 the concept of certainty played scarcely any role in his meteorological commentaries, and the chosen solutions are often described not as true but as better, more tolerable, or more pleasing. 35 pomponazzi found significant authority in aristotle. authority, however, was conditional, and the role of the philosopher is to judge authorities, “because in philosophy,” pomponazzi writes, “one should not believe an authority without reason.” 36 the authority derives from aristotle’s words themselves and the commentators should only be used with care, especially the works of certain unnamed commentators, who pomponazzi believed to have put forth interpretations that are based on caprice and unsound readings of the text. in his view, the good philosopher is aware of aristotle’s authority, in fact, “the good philosopher should pore himself over aristotle’s text,” 37 yet uses reason to solve interpretative problems as well as to judge the validity of aristotle’s arguments. for example, after being unable to explicate aristotle successfully, he urged his readers to find a solution for themselves. he told his students: “aristotle’s authority is great. and it does not seem easy to find a solution to this question. you consider it.” 38 unquestioning acquiescence to aristotle is not a philosophical method, according to pomponazzi. he repeatedly argued that aristotle was human, and thus erred, like the rest of us. he bluntly wrote: “many want aristotle to have spoken well with respect to everything, and they are stupid.” 39 the formulae and theories that structure natural philosophy are provisional and should be overturned whenever experience demonstrates their failings. he wrote: “if he [aristotle] was wrong, let there be a condemnation of him.” 40 when he finds that aristotle has contradicted himself he confesses his inability to save his arguments, claiming that, “i do not history of meteorology 3 (2006) 9 know how to answer except that aristotle was a man and was capable of making mistakes.” 41 rejecting all earthly authority when he found two opinions of equal value, he stated: “i believe neither aristotle nor galen knew which opinion is more true, but only god does.” 42 pomponazzi’s corrections to aristotle, and to his interpreters, most often come from experience, because aristotle at times induced larger rules from an insufficient amount of experience. 43 experience for pomponazzi was broad and not equivalent to baconian empiricism. he included as experience in his meteorological work, observations taken from plutarch’s histories on the existence of a man whose toe would not burn, avicenna’s observations on the actions of poisonous snakes, as well his own memories of a spectacle that took place in mantua when he was a child. 44 his appeals to experience are often vague and rely on commonplaces; in multiple discussions he adds phrases such as “as is clear from experience” to justify or reject a claim. 45 while pomponazzi advocated the use of reason to form philosophical positions, experience holds a higher position. citing avicenna’s canon and aristotle’s physics, he writes that: “when reason is contrary to experience, then reason must be thrown out and put to experience.” 46 thus, while aristotle, at times, used an insufficient amount of evidence in induction, pomponazzi, nevertheless, saw aristotle as privileging experience over reason in explaining natural phenomenon. after asking why aristotle only puts forth only the phenomena without giving an explanation when he describes how honey is affected by the moist and the cold, pomponazzi answers with the dictum that “it is possible to be known better through experience than theory.” 47 the promotion of experiential approaches to natural philosophy is not foreign to aristotle’s natural philosophy. his use of observation, experiments, and experience is well documented. 48 pomponazzi’s emphasis on experience, however, contrasted with the analytic methods of many late-medieval practitioners of natural philosophy that was more often dependent on logic and mathematics than observation. 49 given pomponazzi’s position with respect to the epistemological roles of experience, authority, and theory, his take on the existence of the habitableness of the antipodes and the torrid zones is somewhat curious. he prefaced his discussion by examining the peripatetic view, which he claimed clearly holds that the zones between the tropics are uninhabitable. after going through the arguments for this position, and pointing out their weakness, he cited a letter from the venetian ambassador to spain. 50 according to this letter, the ambassador crossed the torrid zone and traveled toward the south pole, where he saw over 300 islands, discontinuous with continental land masses, and an “infinity of inhabited locales.” in pomponazzi’s opinion, the contents of this letter show that aristotle’s theory is fatuous. moreover, this experiential evidence suggests that other parts of natural philosophy, such as astronomy, are monuments to human vanity rather than certainty, “the desire of glory and attention leads us to say things about the heavens, when we are ignorant of even the terrestrial regions.” 51 if natural philosophy errs with respect to subjects in our proximity, such as meteorological phenomena, it is even less likely that we can know with certainty about the composition of the distant celestial realm. given this assessment, it would seem that whether the torrid zones and antipodes are inhabited would be an open-and-shut case. for pomponazzi, however, there was one strong argument that humans did not live in these regions, namely the authority of augustine. 52 even though, philosophers’ sense experience contradicts augustine’s position, pomponazzi could not bring himself to directly reject the church father. after rejecting the potential solution that because these inhabitants are wild and without discipline, they should be damned as lacking in sense, he confessed that he could not solve the dilemma and refused to reject augustine. his experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions 10 reasons have his personal history behind him. in 1518, his teachings on the immortality of the soul were condemned by the church, which, at the time, was heavily influenced by augustinians. 53 pomponazzi recanted and agreed not to teach arguments that might be construed to deny the personal immortality of the soul. in explaining his refusal to disagree with augustine, he mentioned his skirmish with the church, writing that the position for which he was declared in error was “fatuous” and claimed that when it “comes to issues of faith, i always subject myself to priests and whatever they tell me.” as a result, he offers no definitive solution since he “does not know how the priests solve this argument.” 54 scholars have more than once charged pomponazzi with deception in his deference to the church, because of his presentation of coherent arguments for a position antithetical to church doctrine, which is followed in a later chapter by a denial of the ability of philosophy to answer the same question, because it was a matter of faith. 55 these charges are problematic because of their assumption of pomponazzi’s heterodoxy and their transference of modern anti-clerical attitudes to the renaissance. 56 it is more than reasonable (and common among medieval christian theologians) to believe that the personal immortality of the soul or the creation of the universe can be known only through faith. 57 one wonders, however, to what extent this fideism is possible with the issue of the habitability of the antipodes and torrid zones. even though once experience shows that these zones are inhabited, there seems little else to do but not interpret augustine as being literally true, but it is not necessary to accuse pomponazzi of disingenuousness. given that he was a layman, pomponazzi was most likely correct in claiming making such interpretation was not his business, but that of priests. pomponazzi, a philosopher untrained in theology, ignorant of their solution, thus refused to make more pronouncements on how to solve a theological question. nonetheless, it is easy to suspect that pomponazzi was a bit gleeful that the augustinians, who by the 1520s had fallen out of favor in rome because of martin luther, a former augustinian monk, would be forced to perform some exegetical acrobatics in order to save the coherency of augustine’s pronouncements. even augustinians, however, did not seem to be overly concerned with maintaining a literal interpretation of augustine. during the sixteenth century numerous augustinian monks traveled to the new world and asia as missionaries. conclusion later aristotelians followed nifo’s and pomponazzi’s rejection of aristotle’s conjecture of uninhabitable regions. francesco vimercati, originally from milan but later a professor of greek and the college royale, in paris, noted, in his 1556 commentary on the meteorology, that the torrid regions, the southern hemisphere, and the northern polar regions were inhabited. he wrote that these locals were discovered after the time of ptolemy and aristotle, but are readily recognized by more recent geographers. 58 the most common jesuit textbooks on natural philosophy, those by the coimbrans, which were commentaries on aristotle as well, citing christopher columbus by name, gave a six-prong explanation of why the torrid zones were indeed habitable: the equal nights and days prevented excessive warming, the areas were full of vapors and therefore cooling rains, god endowed the primeval earth in such a way as to make them cool enough to support human life, they were full of mountains and valley, the oceans cool them, and winds, which have their ultimate source in god’s providence, disperse the heat of the sun. 59 the jesuit order, at this time, was both a starch defender of aristotle and a promoter of history of meteorology 3 (2006) 11 worldwide voyages and missions. the experiences derived from the discovery of the new world, however, were stronger than maintaining a strict adherence to aristotle’s authority. when compared to later debates over the mutability of the heavens and the location of comets, it does not appear that writers of aristotelian commentaries had much trouble relinquishing aristotle’s position at all. 60 this willingness to go against aristotle is due to the lack of ambiguity of the evidence that these zones were inhabited. while the telescope could be doubted as an inaccurate instrument, providing distortions of experience rather than enhancement, 61 and disputes over the application of mathematics to the physical world provoked questions about the conclusions made by tycho brahe and galileo, 62 by the middle of the sixteenth century it would have been impossible to deny the numerous claims made by sailors who had seen the new world. moreover, aristotle’s position had been a matter of debate within the aristotelian tradition since antiquity; it was not a central tenet and thus was subject to revision. jacopo zabarella, a leading professor at padua, believed that aristotelian natural philosophy, despite aristotle’s being fallible, attained perfection with regard to its structure and form, that is, its general principles and methods, but not with regard to its characterization of all natural things. 63 geocentricism, supralunary comets, mutations in the heavens each, to a great extent, threatened the form and structure of the aristotelian cosmos, by rendering key doctrines, such as the distinction between the supralunary and sublunary, the relativity of direction, the relation between celestial powers and earth, as meaningless. to the contrary, aristotle’s conjectures about geographic regions, about which he knew nothing firsthand, provoked laughter in de acosta and scorn in sanchez, were not part of the structure and form of his account of the natural world but rather a description of some of its contents, which could be revised without throwing general principles in doubt. although the inhabitability of the torrid zones was rejected, the belief in the existence of climates that affected persons, peoples, and animal species persisted. as late as the 18 th century, montesquieu endorsed the theory that climate affects government and mores in his spirit of the laws, and thomas jefferson felt obliged to use the phrase “torrid zone” to describe the natural habitat of wooly mammoths and elephants. 64 renaissance aristotelians, such as pomponazzi and nifo, were more than willing to revise aristotle. his authority was not absolute, but merely the best guide available; and well before 1550, scholars thought that not all important truths, such as the earth’s climate, were to be found only by reading texts. endnotes 1 nicolò vito di gozze, discorsi sopra le metheore d'aristotele, ridotti in dialogo & divisi in quattro giornate. (venezia, 1584), 77r. 2 lorraine daston & katharine park, wonders and the order of nature, 1150-1750 (new york: zone books, 1998), 146-159. 3 reijer hooykaas, “humanism and the voyages of discovery in 16 th -century portuguese science and letters,” mededelingen der koninklijke nederlandse akademie van wetenschapen, afd. letterkunde nieuwe reeks deel 42, no. 4 (1979); reijer hooykaas, “the rise of modern science: when and why?” british journal for the history of science 20 (1987), 453-473. 4 for the historiography of the scientific revolution see: h. floris cohen, the scientific revolution: a historiographical inquiry (chicago: university of chicago press, 1994). 5 christoph lüthy, “what to do with seventeenth-century natural philosophy? a taxonomic problem,” perspectives on science 8 (2000), 164-195, esp. 166-170. experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions 12 6 for example, see: margarita bowen, empiricism and geographical thought: from francis bacon to alexander von humboldt (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1981), 36. 7 aristotle, meteorology, 363a15. 8 antony grafton, new worlds, ancient texts: the power of tradition and the shock of discovery (cambridge, mass.: harvard university press, 1992), 1. 9 josé de acosta, de natura novi orbis libri duo (cologne, 1592), 22 10 francisco sanchez, that nothing is known, (tr.) douglas f. s. thomson (cambridge, cambridge university press, 1988), 221-222. 11 james s. romm, the edges of the earth in ancient thought: geography, exploration, and fiction (princeton: princeton university press, 1992), 121-140. 12 ptolemy, geography, 7.5. for the identification of thule see: j. lennart berggren and alexander jones, ptolemy’s geography (princeton: princeton university press, 2000), 180. ptolemy’s geography was not available in western europe until the fifteenth century, although his positions regarding this issue were passed on indirectly. 13 ptolemy, geography, 7.5. 14 augustine,city of god, bk. xvi, chap. 9. 15 lynn thorndike, the sphere of sacrobosco and its commentators (chicago: university of chicago press, 1949), 129. 16 thorndike, the sphere, 139-140. 17 thorndike, the sphere, 321. 18 edmond, buron, ymago mundi e pierre d’ailly. teste latin et français des quatre traités cosmographicques de d’ailly et des notes marginales de christophe colomb. etudes sur les sources de l’auteur, 3 vols. (paris: maisonneuve frères, 1930); w. g. l. randles, “classical models of world geography and their transformation following the discovery of america,” in geography, cartography and nautical science in the renaissance (burlington , vt: variorum , 2000), i: 38-39. 19 albertus magnus, opera omnia, (ed.) august borgnet (paris: l. vivès, 1890) 4:604. 20 pietro d’abano, conciliator differentiarum philosophorum et praecipue medicorum (venice, 1565 [reprint padova: antenore, 1985]), differentia lxvii, fol. 100v-102v. 21 aristotle, posterior analytics 75a38-75b6. for the history of this prohibition see: amos funkenstein, theology and the scientific imagination (princeton: princeton university press, 1986), 299327. 22 for a discussion of the relative absence of teleology in the meteorology see: liba taub, ancient meteorology (london: routledge, 2003), 80-84. 23 aristotle, meteorology, 339a2-3. 24 cynthia a. freeland, “scientific explanation and empirical data in aristotle’s meteorology,” oxford studies in ancient philosophy 8 (1990), 67-102. 25 hans daiber, “the meteorology of theophrastus in syriac and arabic translation,” in theophrastus: his psychological, doxagraphical, and scientific writings, william w. fortenbaugh and dimitri gutas, eds., (new brunswick: transaction books, 1992), 166-293, english trans. of treatise, 261271. 26 see rubrica lxxviii: “de lectura et ordine librorum legendorum.” in carlo malagola (ed.), statuti delle università e dei collegi dello studio bolognese (bologna: n. zanichelli, 1888), 274. 27 for the regressus see: john herman randall, jr., the school of padua and the emergence of modern science (padua: antenore, 1961); nicolas jardine, “epistemology of the sciences,” in charles b. schmitt et al. (eds.), the cambridge history of renaissance philosophy (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1988) 708-711; charles b. schmitt, “l’aristotelismo nel veneto e le origini della scienza moderna,” in luigi olivieri (ed.), aristotelismo veneto e scienza moderna (padua: antenore, 1983) 79103, (english version) 104-123; w. l. wisan, “galileo’s scientific method: a re-examination,” in r. e. butts and j. c. pitt (eds.), new perspectives on galileo (dordrecht: d. reidel, 1978), 1-57. for a history of meteorology 3 (2006) 13 biography and the chronology of nifo’s teaching see: edward p. mahoney, “agostino nifo,” dsb x (1974), 122-124. 28 for the editions of this work see: charles h. lohr, latin aristotle commentaries ii: renaissance authors (florence: olschki, 1988), 282-287. 29 agostino nifo, expositio super octo aristotelis stagiritae libros de physico auditu (venice, 1552), 6v: “dicendum, scientiam de natura non esse scientiam simpliciter, qualis est scientia mathematica, est tamen scientia propter quid: quia inventio causae, quae habetur per syllogismum coniecturalem, est propter quid effectus. per haec delentur obiectiones, quae contra haec fieri solent: prima quidem delentur ex eo, quia non est circulus in demonstratione, cum primus processus sit tantum syllogismus, secundus vero demonstratio propter quid. deletur etiam secunda obiectio, quia effectus semper est notior ipsa causa in genere notitiae quia est. nunquam enim causa potest esse ita certa quia est, sicut effectus, cuius esse est ad sensum notum. ipsum vero quia est causae, est coniecturale, utrum tale esse coniecturale est notius ipso effectu, in genere notitiae propter quid. nam posita inventione causae semper scitur propter quid effectus. unde & aristo., in libro meteororum concedit se non tradidisse veras causas effectuum naturalium, sed quo erat sibi possibile coniecturabiliter. sed de his hactenus.” 30 agostino nifo, in libros meteorologicorum, in librum de mistis, sive quartum meteororum, ab antiquis nuncupatum & ordinatum (venice, 1560), 329: “est ergo opinio aristotelis terrae habitabilis partes, quae bene, & ordinatae habitantur, esse duas: nostram, quae est in cona cancri, & illam, quam antipodes habitant, quae est sub cona capricorni, hanc nostram habitabilem esse videmus. sed illam aristoteles habitatam esse, ut alexan. inquit, non per historias tradit, sed per coniecturas, eo quia sol eodem modo se habet ad illam, sicut ad nostram. et licet temporibus aristotelis fortasse habitatio in illa per historias non erat cognita, ut alexan. inquit. tamen temporibus nostris per navigationes habitata reperitur. asserunt enim invenisse gentes adeo versus illum polum habitantes, ut polus elevetur ad gra. 60. & sic quod aristoteles coniecturis probavit, historia [non?] comprobatur.” 31 ibid.: “respondet alexan. aristotelem esse locutum de bene habitantibus, modo isti aethiopes non bene habitant, sed propre aquas, quasi praeter naturaliter viventes.” 32 on his promotion of doubting see: stefano perfetti, “docebo vos dubitare. il commento inedito di pietro pomponazzi al de partibus animalium,” documenti e studi sulla tradizione filosofica medievale 10 (1999), 439-466. 33 lohr, latin aristotle commentaries 347-362. 34 for pomponazzi’s spirit of independence see the introduction to: antonino poppi, corsi inediti dell’insegnamento padovano vol. 1 (padua: antenore, 1966), xv. for his method of commentary on de partibus animalium see: stefano perfetti, aristotle’s zoology and its renaissance commentators (15211601) (leuven: leuven university press, 2000), 33-63. 35 e.g., pietro pomponazzi, dubitationes in quartum meteorologicorum (venice, 1563), dubitatio xiii, 8r: “quare alexandri expositio mihi videtur melior,”; dubitatio, xxvi, 17r: “& haec responsio magis tolerabilis est.”; dubitatio xxviii, 20v: “mihi, ut verum fatear, magis place sententia thomae de garbo.”; dubitatio xlvii, 28r: “multo magis mihi placet haec responsio.”; dubitatio xlix, 31v: “& mihi verior opinio,”; dubitatio lxxiii, 41r: “valeat haec responsio quantum potest.” on the limits of certainty in this philosophical setting see: luigi olivieri, certezza e gerarchia del sapere: crisi dell’idea di scientificità nell’aristotelismo del secolo xvi (padua: antenore, 1983), 117-133. 36 dubitatio xlix, 30v: “(in philosophia enim non credendum authoritati sine ratione)” 37 dubitatio xlix, 33v. 38 dubitatio xl, 37v: “magna est authoritas aristotelis. & solvere quaestionem hanc mihi non videtur facile. vos considerate.” see also: dubitatio lxxxi, 40v: “certe ego non video modum salvandi aristotelem in hoc loco, … meliorem solutionem ego non habeo. si vultis meliorem, quaerite.” 39 40v: “multi volunt aristotelem in omnibus bene dixisse, & stulti sunt.” 40 dubitatio lxxxiii, 42v: “domini ego nescio dici oporteat, neque possum aristotelem defendere. si erravit, eius fit damnum.” experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions 14 41 dubitatio cxxvi, 49r: “aliud dubium, videtur aristoteles sibi contradicere...nescio respondere, nisi, quod aristoteles fuit homo, & potiut errare.” on the history of this phrase see: luca bianchi, “‘aristotele fu un uomo e poté errare’: sulle origini medievali della critica al ‘principio di autorità,’” in luca bianchi (ed.), filosofia e teologia nel trecento. studi in ricordo di eugenio randi, (louvain-la-neuve: fédération internationale des instituts d’études médiévales, 1994), 509-533 [reprinted in updated version in luca bianchi, studi sull’aristotelismo del rinascimento (padua: il poligrafo, 2003), 101-132]. 42 dubitatio xlii, 22v: “quae tamen opinio sit verior, credo ego nec aristotelem, nec galenum, hoc scivisse: sed solum deum.” 43 dubitatio xiiii, 17v: “adde quod videtur philosophus facere insufficiente inductionem...” see antonino poppi, introduzione all’aristotelismo padovano 2 nd edition (padova: antenore, 1991), 13-44, for a characterization of paduan aristotelianism as privileging experience at the expense of metaphysics. 44 dubitatio lxiiii, 38v. plutarch’s story of the man with the incombustible foot as well as similar observations on the venom of snakes is also found in: pietro pomponazzi, de naturalium effectuum causis sive de incantationibus (basel, 1567) 46-47. 45 see dubitatio lxxi, 40v: certe ego non video modum salvandi aristotelem in hoc loco, propterea quod si ex spiritu fit aqua, haec est humectatio, ut patet ad sensum”; dubitatio cviii, 47r: “sed haec solution non placet, quoniam eadem pars terrae potest madefieri & etiam liquefieri, ut patet experientia.”; dubitatio ix, 4r: “& huius opinionis author fuit calculator. quae tamen salvo meliori iudicio mihi videtur falsa est: est enim contra experientiam.”; ibid: “verum meo iudicio melior est opinio communis, quam opinio gaiet. ideo probo ego hoc esse contra sensum & experientiam, quod gaietanus dicit.” 46 dubitatio xii, 6v: “avic. autem quarta primi, & arist. 8 physicae ausc. dicit, quod quando ratio adversatur experientiae, tunc omittenda ratio, & standum experientiae.” cf. aristotle, physics 8.1, 262a18ff. 47 dubitatio lxxvi, 41v: “ego dicerem quod hoc potest sciri magis per experientiam quam per rationem.” 48 e.g., louis bourgey, observation et experience chez aristote (paris: j. vrin, 1955); g. e. r. lloyd. “experiment in early greek philosophy and medicine,” proceedings of the cambridge philological society n.s. 10 (1964), 50-72, reprinted with introduction in method and problems in greek science: selected papers (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1991) 70-99. 49 john e. murdoch, “the analytic character of late medieval learning: natural philosophy without nature,” in l. d. roberts (ed.) approaches to nature in the middle ages (binghamton, ny: center for medieval & early renaissance studies, 1982), 171-213. 50 pietro pomponazzi, in secundum librum meteororum, ms. ambrosiana 96 r sup., fol. 69v: “notetis quod ego habeo epistolam missam a quodam veneto. qui iverat in legationem ad regem hispaniae, et venit versus polum australem, opportuit ergo ut transiret torridam zonam, dixitque ibi esse plusquam trecentum insulas, tamen scribit illas esse discontinuas et quod ibi sunt infinita loca habitata. ideo en quae hic dicitur ab aristotele sunt fatuitates, ut videtis.” a portion of this quotation and a similar reportatio are transcribed in: bruno nardi, saggi sulla cultura veneta del quattro e cinquecento (padua: antenore, 1971), 52. on the widespread availability of printed reports of the discovery of the new world in northern italy, see: liz horodowich, “armchair travelers and the venetian discovery of the new world,” the sixteenth century journal 36 (2005), 1039-1062; rudolf hirsch, “printed reports on the early discoveries and their reception,” in fredi chiappelli (ed.), first images of america: the impact of the new world on the old (berkeley/los angeles/london: university of california press, 1976) 2:537538. 51 pomponazzi, in secundum librum, fol. 69v: “cupiditas tamen gloriae et affectionis ducit nos ad dicendum saepe de superis, cum inferiora ignoremus.” history of meteorology 3 (2006) 15 52 pomponazzi, in secundum librum, fol. 71v: “tamen argumentum adduco, quod omnium est fortissimum, quoniam divus augustinus ibi de civitate dei cap. ultimo ubi disputat utrum sint antipodes vel non dicit ipse quod non sunt, imo ponere ipsos antipodes nihil aliud sit nisi fictio, et fatuitas astrologorum, et philosophorum.” 53 for the influence of augustinians on the papacy during this time see: john w. o’malley, giles of viterbo on church and reform (leiden: brill, 1968), 41-49. 54 in secundum librum., fol. 71v-72r: “unum est quod augustinus negat illa loca, et tamen philosophi tenent et experientia et sensus unius haec docere. quid conclusio dicendum est. etiam ibi sunt homines bestiales, et non disciplinabiles, quo ergo docebimus eos quod credant, ea quae sensum fugiuntur profecto res est magna difficultatis, quo modo ergo deberent ipsi damnari, cum ipsi sint quasi bestiae, et feri sic, et forsan, quod nihilo sciunt de fide, imo sine forsan nihil credunt de his, quae non credimus, cum ergo non sint in causa, quare debent damnari? domini mei quoniam ego pervenio ad aliquem passsum ubi agitur de fide tunc ego me subijcio fratribus, et quicquid ipsi mihi dicunt, ego credo: subijcio me semper correctioni ecclesiae: profecto ego miror de multis qui se multa scire profitentur et minima videtis nos ignorare: maxime tamen miror de averroe qui iurat animam suam has esse demones quas onit, et sunt mera sophismata. ego dimitto hoc, et cogitetis, et volo quod dicatis vestram sententiam, quantum credatis ipsum scivisse de copulatione intellegentis possibilis cum intellectu agente, quae mihi videtur maxima fatuitas. videtur autem homini ambitionbem, qui pollicetur demonstrationem causae et esse, quae profecto non valet unum quadrantem. taceo de illa copulatione intellegentis. unum est quod aristotelis via est animam fuisse mortalem, manendo in via sua, et puris naturalibus. infide ego nescio quid sit respondendum: nescio enim quomodo illi frates solunt argumentum, ego enim nescio solvere, tam augustinus expresse negat illas habitationes quas diximus, et dicit esse phantasias philosophorum, et astrologorum.” 55 on pomponazzi’s condemnation and his recantation, see: martin l. pine, pietro pomponazzi, radical philosopher of the renaissance (padua: antenore, 1986), 126-131. for accusations of his undercover attacks on established religions see: martin l. pine, “pietro pomponazzi’s attack on religion and the problem of the de fato,” in atheismus im mittelalter und in der renaissance, friedrich niewöhner and olaf pluta (eds.), (wiesbaden: harrassowitz verlag, 1999), 145-172. 56 paul o. kristeller, “the myth of renaissance atheism and the french tradition of free thought,” journal of the history of philosophy 6 (1968), 233-243. 57 for fideism and its opponents in the middle ages see: etienne gilson, reason and revelation in the middle ages (new york: scribner, 1950). 58 francesco vimercati, in quatuor libros aristotelis meteorologicorum commentarii (paris, 1556), 229. 59 collegium conimbricense, in quatuor libros de caelo (lyon, 1608), col. 402-406. 60 stillman drake & c. d. o’malley, controversy on the comets of 1618 (philadelphia: university of pennsylvania press, 1960). 61 william r. shea, galileo’s intellectual revolution, 2 nd ed. (new york: science history publications, 1977), 79-81. 62 anna de pace, le matematiche e il mondo: richerche su un dibattito in italia nella seconda metà del cinquecento (milano: francangeli, 1993); rivka feldhay, “the use and abuse of mathematical entities,” in cambridge companion to galileo, (ed..) peter machamer (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1998), 92-93. 63 heikki mikkeli, an aristotelian response to renaissance humanism (helsinki: shs, 1992), 43. 64 baron de montesquieu, the spirit of the laws, (tr.) anne m. cohler, basia carolyn miller, & harold samuel stone (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1989), bks. 14-17, pp. 231-284; thomas jefferson, notes on the state of virginia (new york: library of america), 168. experience of the new world and aristotelian revisions 16 07 vollset asking too much history of meteorology 7 (2015) 83 asking too much? postwar climate research in norway, 1947-1961 magnus vollset magnus.vollset@uib.no ahkr, university of bergen following the extremely dry summer of 1947, the head of the norwegian water resources and electricity works, fredrik vogt, wrote a concerned letter to the norwegian academy of science and letters asking if the climate was changing, and if this would be possible to predict. vogt was worried about the future stability of norwegian hydropower: “if you can develop fairly reliable prognosis for climate variations in the coming years or decades, this would be of great practical importance for how we manage the power supply.”1 in response, the academy established a multidisciplinary taskforce, which gave birth to an institute for weather and climate research. parallel to this, the meteorological office had its own section for climate. however, by the time the institute closed in 1960, the question of climate prediction was long forgotten. this paper investigates norwegian postwar climate research through studying the institution that was set up, its mandate, how the research was funded, which researchers were involved, and how they were recruited. i examine the findings, the concurrent debates on what meteorological research to conduct, and show how ‘climate’ held different meanings for the different actors. the goal of the paper is to explain why vogt’s request for climate prognosis was not pursued. by focusing on the overlooked period 1947-61, which was when the institute for weather and climate research operated, and before the computer at the meteorological office transformed the capacities of the climatologists, i demonstrate that history is not a linear affair, and that research projects that did not lead to a breakthrough are also part of it. by exploring efforts that were seen as important at the time, but did not necessarily lead to the present, we can gain better insights into how science actually works. 1 letter from fredrik vogt, head of the norwegian water resources and electricity works [‘norges vassdragsog elektrisitetsvesen’], to the norwegian academy of science and letters [‘det norske vitenskapsakademi i oslo’], dated oslo, december 23, 1947. beretning fra utvalget for vær og klimavariasjoner, 1948 og 1949. 1950: 2-3. [hereafter: beretning. 1950]. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 84 the drought and the committee although the cold winter of 1947 is well documented, particularly on the british isles,2 the extremely dry summer that followed in most of europe is less well known. from the middle of july to the middle of august, the meteorologists in the norwegian capital of oslo registered only 2.2 millimeters of rain, compared to a 30-year average of 102 millimeters.3 streams and rivers dried up, there were wildfires, and electricity was rationed.4 in september, the norwegian school of agriculture reported that the rainfall in the growth season had been between a fourth and a fifth of that in a normal year, and that crop yields were halved.5 farmers were instructed to butcher farm animals to save on food supplies for the coming winter, and in a country still rebuilding after five years of nazi occupation, newspaper columnists commented: “this is a crop failure of the worst kind; a catastrophe no one had believed could befall norwegian agriculture in our time.”6 the consequence of the drought on the production of hydroelectric power was especially alarming. when norway accepted the marshall plan in april 1948, increased electricity production for industrial needs was defined as the country’s main contribution to european postwar reconstruction.7 thus, when vogt as head of the norwegian water resources and electricity works asked if the climate was changing, and if this would be possible to forecast, his request was taken very seriously.8 in line with influential contemporary climatologists such as helmut landsberg, vogt understood climate as an inexhaustible natural resource.9 climate was what controlled the rainfall needed to produce hydropower, and climate prediction was key to managing this vital national resource. the academy established a committee on weather and climate variation, which worked in a multidisciplinary rather than an interdisciplinary way. the group consisted of three meteorologists (theodor hesselberg, einar høiland, halvor solberg), two botanists (ove arbo høeg, knut fægri), an expert on oceanography (harald ulrik sverdrup), an 2 cerys a. jones, s. j. davies and n. macdonald. “examining the social consequences of extreme weather: the outcomes of the 1946/1947 winter in upland wales, uk”. climatic change. 2012: 35-53; hall, alexander. risk, blame, and expertise: the meteorological office and extreme weather in post-war britain. phd-thesis, university of manchester. 2012: 63-73; robertson, alex j. the bleak midwinter 1947. manchester university press. 1987; roberts, cedric. “the winter of 1947 in halesowen, west midlands”. weather. vol. 58, 2003: 113-119; kearns, kevin c. ireland’s arctic siege, the big freeze of 1947. gill & macmillan. 2011. for a contemporary account from britain, see: manley, g. “looking back at last winter (a) february 1947: its place in meteorological history”. weather. vol. 2, no. 9. 1947: 267–272. 3 “lite håp om regn” [‘little hope for rain’]. verdens gang. 19.8.1947: 1. 4 bjørbæk, gustav. norsk vær i 110 år: temperatur, nedbør, værrekorder. damm forlag. 2003: 143. 5 “avlingene ved landbrukshøgskolen 50 prosent av et normalår” [‘crops at the college of agriculture 50 percent of a normal year’]. verdens gang. 1.9.1947: 2. 6 “ikke nedslakting på slump” [‘not slaughter at random’]. verdens gang. 30.8.1947: 2. 7 skjold, dag ove. statens kraft 1947-1965. for velferd og industri. universitetsforlaget. 2006. 8 letter from vogt. beretning. 1950: 2-3. the academy was chosen because they “have members from all camps of science: meteorologists, physicists, botanists, geologists etc.” 9 landsberg, helmut. “climate as a natural resource”. the scientific monthly. vol. 63, no. 4. 1946: 293 – 298. see also vladimir janković’s paper in this issue. for more on landsberg’s later attempts at establishing a ‘scientific middle ground’ in environmental debates in the us, see: henderson, gabriel. raising the alarm: the cultural origins of climate 'denialism' in america, 1970-1988. phd dissertation, michigan state university. 2014. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 85 expert on glaciers (geographer werner werenskiold), an astrophysicist (svein rosseland), a historian (johan schreiner), and a representative from the water resources service (halfdan klæboe).10 representatives from the different disciplines worked side by side on independent projects, but outside the board meetings that took place at the state meteorological office, there was no collaboration. the reports on their progress consisted of minutes of meetings and individual papers, but there were no final report that summarized the findings. the result was a plethora of studies: the botanists conducted tree-ring dating (dendrochronology) and pollen analysis in marshes to map the climate fluctuations in the recent past.11 the meteorologists used past weather observations to map the geographical patterns of the changing climate.12 the oceanographer examined the sea-ice in the arctic ocean, and the glaciologist mapped the retreat of the mountain glaciers as proxies for the impact of these variations.13 the astrophysicist began investigating the correlation between climate and sunspot cycles, while the representative from the water resources service did a statistical mapping of the fluctuations in runoff.14 finally, the historian had a student analyze river flows using historical records from timber mills.15 while the studies documented that the climate had fluctuated, the search for patterns in the climatological records was far from useful for making predictions. regardless of the method used, the variations were greater than the trends. the pollen analysis, for instance, suggested that climate changed in 600-year cycles, give or take a few decades. the tree-ring dating suggested 33-year patterns, correlating with the 11-year sunspot cycles, but again reality did not fully align with the statistical trends. similarly, the meteorologists showed that a “wet” year could have two to three times more downpour than a “dry” year, and that even in “normal” years the annual fluctuation in river flows could be 10 percent or even greater.16 the most useful findings for the hydroelectric producers came from the meteorologists, who could rely on previously published research. in the 1930s, inspired by reports that the season for ice-free harbors on spitsbergen (svalbard) had increased from 120 to 200 days, the head of the norwegian meteorological institute, theodor 10 beretning. 1950: 4. the group was financed by the norwegian hydropower association [‘reguleringsforeningens landssammenslutning’], with modest contributions from power-intensive industries. 11 fægri, knut. “pollenalanysens anvendelse for undersökelse av sykliske klimavariasjoner” [‘using pollen analysis to investigate cyclic variations’]; höeg, ove arbo. “dendrokronologi og klimaendringer” [‘dendrochronology and climate variations’]. beretning. 1950: attachments 1 and 4. 12 hesselberg, theodor. “hva de meteorologiske observasjoner viser om klimavariasjonene i norge” [‘what the meteorological observations show regarding climate variations in norway’]. rapport fra utvalget for vær og klimavariasjoner. blindern. december 2, 1948: 22. 13 sverdrup, harald ulrik. “oseanografiske observasjoner som antyder en klimaendring” [‘oceanographic observations which suggest climate change’]; werenskiold, werner. “bremålinger i jotunheimen” [‘glacier measurements in jotunheimen’]. beretning. 1950: attachments 7 and 8; fægri, knut. “on the variations of western norwegian glaciers during the last 200 years”. procès-verbause des séances de l’assemblée générale d’oslo de l’union géodesique et géophysique internationale. 1948: 293-303. 14 rosseland, svein. “solen som variabel stjerne. – solaktivitetens virkning på jorden” [‘the sun as a fluctuating star. – the effect of solar activities on earth’]; klæboe, halfdan. “fluctuations in run-off”. beretning. 1950: attachment 5 and 6. 15 authén, grethe. “elvenes vannføring på 1700-tallet, belyst ved fogderegnskapenes sagmannstall” [‘river levels in the 1700s, illustrated by shire saw-records’]. beretning. 1950: 72. 16 hesselberg 1948: 22, ref. note 12. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 86 hesselberg, and the head of the section for climate, bernt johannes birkeland, had begun examining the secular variations in the norwegian climate.17 when weather forecasting was banned during the five years of nazi occupation, the meteorologists stepped up their efforts on time-consuming climatological research.18 in this research, climate was understood as a regional and measurable phenomenon consisting of average temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind, and air pressure. based on around 1.8 million observations and accompanied by over 200 pages of tables, all calculated by hand, hesselberg and birkeland concluded that the climate in norway had changed more in the past fifty years than it had the previous two hundred.19 the average temperature had increased by 0.6 degrees centigrade from 1911 to 1940. the increase was greater in the north than in the south, and the change was stronger in winter and spring than in summer and fall. the most extreme changes had taken place in karasjok, kautokeino and sør-varanger in the far north of the country, where the average temperatures in february had increased by more than four degrees centigrade. further, rainfall had increased by up to twenty percent in the south-eastern part of norway, while north-western norway had become up to fifteen percent drier. accompanying this, the frequency of winds from the southeast had increased by 25 percent, while winds from the northwest had decreased by 20 percent. this meant, they explained, that warmer and more humid winds from the south had brought more precipitation, and with a mountain range separating east from west, north-western parts of norway were left in a relative rain-shadow. according to hesselberg, the geographical pattern had clear practical implications: producers of hydropower in different parts of the country needed to collaborate. when it rained on the eastern side of the mountains, the production of electricity should be increased and “exported” to the west – and vice versa.20 while useful, this was not really what vogt had in mind when he had asked for long-term forecasts for years or decades. hesselberg and birkeland’s research was extremely empirical, and unlike climatologists of the same generation, they were not interested in stretching the study back to before the official records began in 1866.21 in addition, contrary to concurrent 17 secular variation was defined as climate change over periods of a hundred years or more. 18 barlaup, asbjørn. det norske meteorologiske institutt 1866-1966. fabritius & sønner. oslo. 1966: 64-70. 19 hesselberg, th. and b. j. birkeland. “säkulare schwankungen des klimas von norwegen. teil 1. die lufttemperatur” [‘secular variations in the norwegian climate. part 1. the air temperature’]. geofysiske publikasjoner. vol. xiv, no. 4. 1940; hesselberg, th. and b. j. birkeland. “säkulare schwankungen des klimas von norwegen. teil 2. die niederschlag” [‘secular variations in the norwegian climate. part 2. precipitation’]. geofysiske publikasjoner. vol. xiv, no. 5. 1941; hesselberg, th. and b. j. birkeland. “säkulare schwankungen des klimas von norwegen. teil 3. luftdruck und wind” [‘secular variations in the norwegian climate. part 3. air pressure and wind’]. geofysiske publikasjoner. vol. xiv, no. 5. 1943; hesselberg, th. and b. j. birkeland. “säkulare schwankungen des klimas von norwegen. teil 4. die feuchtigkeit” [‘secular variations in the norwegian climate. part 4. humidity’]. geofysiske publikasjoner. vol. xv, no. 2. 1944. the temperatures previous to the official norwegian records began in 1866 were gathered from stockholm, copenhagen, edinburgh and stykkisholm on iceland. (hesselberg and birkeland 1940: 26-27) 20 hesselberg, theodor. “memorandum til utvalget for værog klimavariasjoner” [‘memorandum to the committee for weather and climate variations’]. november 1948. beretning. 1950: 41. 21 see for instance: britton, c. e. “a meteorological chronology to a. d. 1450.” geophysical memoirs. no. 70. meteorological office, london. 1937. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 87 research of climatologist gordon manley in the uk or glaciologist hans ahlmann in sweden, there were no references to amateur observations, no real interest in glaciers and snowfall, and no links between climate and culture.22 although the findings would have supported ahlmann’s theory of polar warming,23 he was merely mentioned in the passing as one of several researchers having pointed out that climate varied with time.24 and while manley was generally skeptical of identifying patterns or trends from his long-term records,25 this was exactly what hesselberg and birkeland set out to do. finally, even though the norwegian researchers argued that their climatological findings were linked to atmospheric circulation, they made no mention of tor bergeron’s dynamic climatology.26 in general, hesselberg and birkeland did not engage in ongoing debates on climate variations elsewhere: in line with their empiricist approach, the observations, calculated and put into tables and graphs, should speak for themselves. a separate strategy that the norwegian meteorologists pursued was to use records from the growing international network of radiosonde observations. after discussing the matter with several experts abroad, a group of meteorologists in oslo requested upper airobservations from 33 countries in the northern hemisphere.27 the dual purpose of the study was to investigate the abnormal spring and summer of 1947, and to examine if the observations could be used in extending the weather forecasts. however, when it turned out that the dataset from december 1948 was the most comprehensive, the ambition of investigating the drought in 1947 was abandoned. increasingly, what mattered to the meteorologists was extending the weather forecasts. in december 1949, at the fifth and final meeting of the committee, meteorologist einar høiland suggested that instead of working out predictions for years or decades, «the only rational way forward» was incremental steps, starting with extending forecasts from 24 to 72 hours.28 he failed to mention that experiments in extended forecasts had begun more than a decade earlier, independent of the committee’s work,29 but the representative from the water works agreed that three-day forecasts would be useful. 22 endfield, georgina, lucy veale and alexander hall. “gordon valentine manley and his contribution to the study of climate change: a review of his life and work”. wires climate change. vol. 6. 2015: 287– 299; endfield, georgina. “reculturing and particularizing climate discourses: weather, identity, and the work of gordon manley”. osiris. vol. 26, no. 1, klima. 2011: 142-162. see also alexander hall’s paper in this issue. 23 sörlin, sverker. “the anxieties of a science diplomat: field coproduction of climate knowledge and the rise and fall of hans ahlmann’s "polar warming"”. osiris. vol. 26, no. 1, klima. 2011: 66-88, p. 88. 24 hesselberg and birkeland 1940: 7. 25 endfield, veale and hall. 2015: 292. 26 for more on bergeron’s dynamic climatology, see jim fleming and philipp lehmann’s papers in this issue. 27 through the norwegian meteorologist jørgen holmboe at ucla, they got in touch with jerome namias, head of the extended forecasting section at the u.s. weather bureau in washington, and arranged for him to visit oslo to demonstrate the american methods for 5and 30-day forecasts. two meteorologists were sent to visit carl-gustaf rossby in stockholm, and arnt eliassen filed a report on the forecasting methods used at the university in chicago. they also read up on research being done elsewhere in europe and in the soviet union. høiland, einar. “rapport fra dr. høiland”. beretning. 1950: 46-48. 28 report from meeting, thursday december 1, 1949. beretning. 1950: 8. 29 the seasonal four-day forecasts for the fisheries in the north sea, based on surface observations, were broadcasted by radio three times a week. petterssen, sverre. kuling fra nord – en værvarslers erindringer. 1974: 199. an english translation of petterssen’s autobiography was published by the american meteorological society under the title weathering the storm, edited by james r. fleming, in 2001. see history of meteorology 7 (2015) 88 the committee finally agreed to contact the newly established norwegian council for scientific and industrial research, to secure more reliable funding. a group consisting of meteorologists hesselberg and høiland and astrophysicist rosseland, all former bjerknes-acolytes,30 wrote a proposal to turn the committee into an institute for weatherand climate research: “the purpose of this inquiry is primarily to give the committee a more permanent character by the indicated name-change, while the activities in the beginning will continue along current lines.”31 in the application, emphasis was on improving long-term weather forecasting following the line of research developed by the bergen school of meteorology, while the prospect of swift progress in climate prediction was downplayed. the main argument was the economic usefulness of the research and a desire to reinforce an already established collaboration with the norwegian meteorological institute, the norwegian polar institute and the water resources and electricity works. the application also highlighted that similar research into long-term forecasting, utilizing three-dimensional synopticand radiosonde observations from the northern hemisphere, was going on at the extended forecasting section at the u.s. weather bureau in washington d.c, headed by jerome namias, at the university of chicago and at the stockholm university college under the leadership of carl-gustaf rossby, and at the forecast research division in dunstable, england, headed by reginald sutcliffe. there were several reasons why the committee received the funding it asked for. in addition to being vital for the postwar reconstruction and already having secured annual contributions from the norwegian academy of science and letters, historian kim gunnar helsvig has shown that two of the three experts who evaluated the application had themselves been members of the multidisciplinary taskforce.32 also, it probably did not hurt that the year before requesting climate prediction fredrik vogt had been instrumental in instituting the norwegian research councils, where committee member svein rosseland was deputy head.33 the following decade, høiland’s annual applications also: fleming, james r. “sverre petterssen, the bergen school, and the forecasts for d-day”. history of meteorology. vol. 1, 2004: 75-83. 30 hesselberg had started his career as an assistant to vilhelm bjerknes in kristiania in 1908-12, and joined him in leipzig in 1912-15, before being appointed director of the norwegian meteorological institute in 1915. (sverdrup, harald ulrik. “theodor hesselberg”. norsk biografisk leksikon. 1934.) rosseland had been an assistant for bjerknes in bergen from 1919. however, when it turned out his proficiency for drawing weather maps was severely limited, he was sent as an assistant to niels bohr in copenhagen instead. (vaagen, jan s. “norske fysikere. niels bohr og hans institut.” niels bohr 100 år. vitenskapsmann og verdensborger. vitenskapsteoretisk forum, universitetet i bergen, skriftserien nr. 3. 1985: 71). einar høiland began his career as bjerknes’ last carnegie-assistant in 1935. (godske, carl ludvig et. al. “in memory of vilhelm bjerknes on the 100th anniversary of his birth”. geofysiske publikasjoner. vol. xxiv. 1962: 22.) 31 “søknad d-106.” [application to norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige forskningsråd]. ra/s2939/d/db/dbd/ddbd/l0763/0004. riksarkivet [‘norwegian state archive’], oslo. 1950: 4. 32 helsvig, kim gunnar. elitisme på norsk: det norske videnskaps-akademi 1945-2007. novus/dnva, oslo. 2007: 81. the three members of the committee for geophysics were halvor solberg, theodor hesselberg and professor of physics, lars vegard. 33 slagstad, rune. de nasjonale strateger. pax, oslo. 1998: 297; devik, olaf. n.t.h. femti år: norges tekniske høgskoles virksomhet 1910-1960. oslo. 1960: 185-187; røberg, ole anders. «vitenskap i krig og fred.» astrofysikeren svein rosseland i norsk forskningspolitikk 1945-1965. garduate thesis in history, university of oslo. 2000: 51-55; barlaup, asbjørn. ntnf – ti-års beretning 1946-1956. norges teknisknaturvitenskapelige forskningsråd. 1956: 24-26. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 89 for “theoretical and empirical research with aim to analyze the variations in weather and climate, and identify their causes”, summarizing the past years’ activities at the institute, were all marked with an expectation of receiving similar grants for “several years to come”.34 staring at the sun the institute for weather and climate research was located on the second floor at the institute for theoretical astrophysics at the university of oslo, with funding for one senior scientist, two junior researchers, an assistant and a secretary. it was headed by einar høiland, who had been the secretary of the preceding committee. the institute arranged seminars, had international guests, and collaborated on research projects. in addition to inviting colleagues from the institute of meteorology, høiland offered research positions to promising students who shared his interest in theoretical hydrodynamics.35 of fourteen researchers affiliated with the institute, eight focused on hydrodynamics (per martin breistein, arne foldvik, yngvar gotaas, einar høiland, jack nordø, eyvind riis, sigurd jahr smebye, kristian trægde), three on theoretical meteorology (arnt eliassen, ragnar fjørtoft, kåre pedersen), two on cloud physics (egil hesstvedt, marius todsen), and one on mathematics (enok palm). apart from a failed cloud seeding experiment,36 the research at the institute was highly theoretical: 38 of 50 publications concerned hydrodynamics, particularly expressing weather phenomena such as the impact of topography, gravity, friction and the dynamic interactions between different layers of the atmosphere in quasi-geostrophic equations. eight reports focused on cloud physics, particularly the formation of mother of pearl clouds,37 droplets and thunderstorms. only three studies had any relation to climate. one was a literary review of grosswetter-studies,38 the two others were statistical investigations of the relations between solar activity and terrestrial climate.39 the reorganization of the norwegian universities for mass education, which translated into expanding the academic staff and a corresponding change in research 34 ra/s-2939/d/db/dbd/ddbd/l0763/0004; ra/s-2939/d/dbd/ddbd/l0764/0001. 35 interview with arne foldvik, bergen, 10.10.2014. 36 unsigned. “report on a cloud seeding experiment”. reports from the institute for weather and climate research. no. 6, 1956. 37 mother of pearl clouds are high altitude cloud formations (15-25.000 meters) that develop in polar regions, today referred to as polar stratospheric clouds. through investigating this rare (and beautiful) weather phenomenon, the goal was to gain insight into atmospheric conditions, especially humidity and motion, at higher altitudes that could not be acquired through the distributed radiosonde network. 38 nordø, jack. “oversikt over en del nyere ‘grosswetter’-undersøkelser” [‘overview over some newer grosswetter-research’]. reports from the institute for weather and climate research. oversiktsartikkel no. 1, 1952. grosswetter-studies, literally large-scale weather, are studies of mean pressure distribution over time. 39 nordø, jack. “a statistical discussion of a possible connection between solar activity and sea-level pressure”; nordø, jack. “a comparison of secular changes in terrestrial climate and sunspot activity”. reports from the institute for weather and climate research. no. 5, 1955. see also: nordø, jack. “solaktiviteten og dens innflytelse på atmosfæren” [‘solar activities and its influence on the atmosphere’]. naturen. 1954: 192. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 90 funding, was the main reason why the institute was closed in 1960.40 in their announcement, the research council stressed that this was not a critique of the research, but in line with their general policy of expanding the universities rather than funding independent institutes: “it is exclusively the organizational terms we found counterproductive in the long term.”41 in return, they suggested channeling a similar amount of funds, approximately 70.000 nok per year, into permanent positions at the universities, so that the research could continue there. as historian kristine harper and others have pointed out, the 1950s saw an increased interest in numerical weather forecasting using computers, especially in the wake of the first computer generated weather forecast at the institute for advanced studies at princeton: “meteorologists from academic, the weather bureau, and the military in princeton, stockholm, chicago, new york, cambridge, and washington were busy trying to develop a workable theory of atmospheric motion that could then be programmed into von neumann’s new machine.”42 both arnt eliassen and ragnar fjørtoft moved from being important members of the princeton project to doing research at the institute for weather and climate research in oslo.43 however, the institute did not have access to computers, and instead of numerical weather prediction, their approach followed in the footsteps of the bergen school of meteorology. that vilhelm bjerknes until his death in 1951 had his office at the same building as the institute, and that the leading investigators had all started their careers as carnegie-assistants to bjerknes, probably influenced the choice of direction. however, the legacy would eventually turn out to be a disadvantage. while the computer models went from extreme simplification to increased model complexity, høiland’s team started at the other end. ideally all complexities should be included in the equations. however, the fact that they followed a different tradition than the numerical and published most research in technical reports instead of in journals with wider readership, the research was of little relevance to the wider scientific community and to the new approach to theoretical meteorology that took the computer models as their starting point. it would be decades before computers were powerful enough for the equations developed at the institute to be put into practice in numerical weather forecasting, and by then the technical reports were mostly forgotten. another distinctive feature of the norwegian weather research in this period was that there were no links between meteorology and atmospheric chemistry. at carl gustaf rossby’s international meteorological institute in stockholm, which was inaugurated at more or less the same time as høiland’s institute in oslo, research into atmospheric chemistry went hand in hand with numerical weather prediction and studies into climate variations.44 interested mainly in hydrodynamics, the researchers in norway saw 40 ore, aadne. “det matematisk-naturvitenskapelige fakultet”. universitetet i oslo 1911-1961, bd. 2. universitetsforlaget. 1961: 95-98; helsvig 2007: 82. 41 letter from the norwegian council for scientific and industrial research to einar høiland, signed by georg hygen, dated oslo, february 15, 1960. ra/s-2939/d/db/dbd/ddbd/l0763/0004. 42 harper, kristine c. weather by the numbers: the genesis of modern meteorology. mit press. 2008: 150. 43 harper, kristine c. “the scandinavian tag-team: providers of atmospheric reality to numerical weather prediction efforts in the united states (1948-1955)”. history of meteorology. vol. 1, 2004: 84-91. 44 rossby, carl gustaf and h. egnér. “on chemical climate and its variation with the atmospheric circulation pattern”. tellus. vol. 7, no. 1. 1955: 118-133; bohn, maria. “concentrating on co2: the scandinavian and arctic measurements”. osiris. vol. 26, no. 1, klima. 2011: 165-179. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 91 temperature, pressure and humidity as what characterized differences in the air, not its chemical composition. atmospheric chemistry in the period was a swedish, and partly finnish, endeavor.45 with the exception of a short popular text on a possible link between acid rain and fish death, published in 1959,46 atmospheric chemistry was first introduced to norwegian meteorological research in the early 1970s when the newly established norwegian institute for air research led an oecd research program into air pollution dispersion.47 some of the reasons for prioritizing hydrodynamics rather than climate variations can be found in a public lecture held by høiland at the annual meeting of the research council in march 1952 entitled “climate fluctuations and possible causes”.48 høiland’s argument was that climate had changed for the better, meaning it was warmer, that this was caused by changes in the energy from the sun, and that this was likely a short-term fluctuation. his presentation reflected the general view among the meteorologists at the time: the sun was the ‘engine’ or ‘power source’ for the atmosphere, and was, therefore, the cause for climate variations. this theory was famously put forward by james croll in 1875.49 while not supporting the specifics of croll’s theory, norwegian oceanographers such as bjørn helland-hansen, harald urik sverdrup and fridtjof nansen had in the first decade of the 20th century argued that the key to climate variations on earth was the sun.50 45 bohn 2011. for more on early climate modelling, see: heymann, matthias. “constructing evidence and trust: how did climate scientists’ confidence in their models and simulations emerge?”. in: hastrup, kirsten and martin skrydstrup (eds). the social life of climate change models. anticipating nature. routledge studies in anthropology. 2013: 203-224. 46 dannevig, alf. “nedbørens innflytelse på vassdragenes surhet og på fiskebestanden” [‘the influence of percipitation on acidities in rivers and on fish populations’]. jeger og fisker. no. 3. 1959: 116-118. 47 oecd. the oecd programme on long range transport of air pollutants: measurements and findings. paris. 1977. the project confirmed that pollution from sulfur dioxide was transferred between european countries, and that two third of pollution in scandinavia originated from outside sources. (rothschild, rachel. “burning rain. the long-range transboundary air pollution project.” in: fleming, jim, and ann johnson, eds. toxic airs. pittsburgh. 2014: 181-207). the report led to the establishment of the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, the first international legally binding instrument to deal with problems of air pollution on a broad regional basis. the convention was signed in 1979 and entered into force four years later. (gillespie, alexander. climate change, ozone depletion and air pollution. legal commentaries with policy and science considerations. brill, leiden. 2006; underdal, arild and kenneth hanf (red). international environmental agreements and domestic policies. the case of acid rain. ashgate. 2000, particularly chapters 3, 4 and 11.) 48 høiland, einar. “klimasvingninger og mulige årsaker til dem. foredrag holdt ved årsmøtet 19. mars 1952 i norges allmennvitenskapelige forskningsråd.” [‘climate fluctuations and possible causes. lecture held at the annual meeting of the norwegian research council for science and the humanities, march 19, 1952’]. naturen. 1953. 49 croll, james. climate and time in their geological relations. a theory of secular changes of the earth’s climate. 1875. for more on croll, see gunnar ellingsens paper in this issue. 50 helland-hansen, bjørn and fridtjof nansen. “temperaturschwankungen des nord-atlantischen ozeans und in der atmosphäre” [‘temperature fluctuations in the north atlantic ocean and in the atmosphere’]. vitenskapsselskapets skrifter, no. 9. kristiania, 1917; sverdrup, h. u. “die beziehungen der elfjährigen klimaschwankungen zur sonnentätigkeit” [‘the relations between 11-year climate variations and solar activities’]. annalen der hydrographie und maritime meteorologie, berlin. 1918; helland-hansen, bjørn and fridtjof nansen. “temperature variations in the north atlantic ocean and in the atmosphere. introductory study on the cause of climatological variations”. smithsonian miscellaneous collections. vol. 70, no. 4. 1920; ellingsen, gunnar. varme havstrømmer og kald krig: “bergensstrømmåleren” og vitenskapen om havstrømmer fra 1870-årene til 1960-årene. [‘warm ocean currents and cold war: “the bergen current-meter” and the science of ocean currents from the 1870s to the 1960s’]. phd-dissertation, history of meteorology 7 (2015) 92 the position was supported by leading astronomers at the time,51 and in norway the importance of the sun was probably reinforced by the rockefeller foundation-financed solar observatory at harestua outside oslo, which opened in 1954.52 the debate at the time was not whether climate variations were caused by the sun, but if the warmer climate was due to an increase or a decrease in the solar energy. from the 1930s, the british meteorologist george clarke simpson had argued that more solar energy caused more clouds, more snow, growing glaciers and that this eventually would lead to more energy being reflected.53 therefore, the observed heating could just as likely herald the start of a new ice age. this fit well with another authoritative hypothesis at the time, the american meteorologist hurd curtis willet’s theory of cyclic variations, which predicted that the average temperatures would start dropping significantly in the late 1950s.54 hesselberg and birkeland’s update to their own study, published in 1956, pointed in the same direction: in the 1940s the rise in temperatures had slowed down compared to the preceding decennium.55 the real worry of the time was not that the observed warming would continue indefinitely, but that the climate would inevitably turn for the worse and that humanity would face a new ice age. the research conducted at the institute should, therefore, focus on understanding the mechanisms of the atmosphere so that the coming ice age could be stopped. høiland argued: “has climatology reached a complete understanding of what lies behind climate change, the mechanisms that are at work? and even more important, has it found ways to intervene and control this mechanism, so that the ice can be stopped?”56 framing the problem of climate variations as a matter of developing methods for avoiding the coming ice age made studying the dynamics of the atmosphere more vital university of bergen. 2013: 100-101. in an interview with a daily newspaper in 1958, jack bjerknes argued that the relation between solar activity and climate variation was “inescapable”. “vil polarisen forsvinne helt?” [‘will the polar ice cap disappear completely?]’. verdens gang. 8.5.1958. 51 see for instance: hoyle, fred. “external sources of climatic variation”. quarterly journal of royal meteorological society. vol. 75, 1949: 161-163. 52 brahde, rolf. “solobservatoriet på harestua” [‘the solar observatory at harestua’]. 1998. [https://www.ub.uio.no/fag/naturvitenskap-teknologi/astro/historiskesamlinger/brahde_solobservatoriet_1998.pdf] 53 simpson, g. c. “further studies in terrestrial radiation”. memoirs of the royal meteorological society. vol 3. 1930: 1-26; simpson, g. c. “world climate during the quaternary period”. quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society. vol. 60. 1934: 425-478. 54 willett, h. c. “long-period fluctuations of the general circulation of the atmosphere”. journal of meteorology. vol. 6, no. 5. 1949; willett, h. c. “solar variability as a factor in the fluctuations of climate during geological time”. geografiske annaler. 1949. see also: godske, c. l. hvordan blir været? meteorologi for alle. [‘what will the weather be? meteorology for everyone’]. j. w. cappelens forlag. oslo. 1956: 189. 55 hesselberg, th. and b. j. birkeland. “the continuation of the secular variations of the climate of norway 1940-50.” geofysiske publikasjoner. vol. xv, no. 5. 1956. 56 høiland 1953: 43. on the relationship between climatology and bergen school hydrodynamics, see lehmann’s paper in this issue. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 93 than investigating climate patterns in the past. according to høiland, it was through knowing the mechanisms in the atmosphere that humanity could stage an intervention.57 a matter of prestige høiland’s emphasis on mechanisms rather than geographical or temporal patterns in the climatic record reflects another trait shared by the meteorological research community in the 1950s: in the shadow of the bergen school, climate studies had low prestige and was often portrayed as a second-rate science. according to meteorological textbooks used from the 1940s, all science matured through distinct phases: first, speculation was replaced by observation. second, observations were systematized and one could start looking for patterns. in the third phase, the mechanisms behind the phenomenon were uncovered and science became predictive, which was what the bergen school of meteorology had brought to the table.58 in popular books on meteorology published in norway in the 1950s, a fourth phase was added, “applied science”, which meant using the mechanisms to stage interventions to control the weather and possibly the climate of the future.59 according to this positivist narrative of linear progress, studying the climate through looking for patterns in past observations was merely second phase science. only research and forecasting based on physics and hydrodynamics was truly predictive, since this was the only part of meteorology that had uncovered underlying mechanisms. to høiland, climate research was merely statistical tinkering, a science of the past using methods of the past. the low prestige of climatology in the period was also an international phenomenon. in his first public lecture as president for the commission on climatology in the world meteorological organization (wmo) in 1953, charles warren thornthwaite stressed: “i hope that we may soon rise up from our inferior position in the hierarchy of meteorology.”60 when climatology received attention in the wmo bulletin in the 1950s, it was only to repeat the mantra that the specialization should have higher ambitions than providing statistical descriptions of the past.61 when the new president of 57 for more on the history of weather control, see: fleming, james. fixing the sky: the checkered history of weather and climate control. columbia university press. 2010. 58 petterssen, sverre. introduction to meteorology. mcgraw-hill book company, inc. new york and london. 1941: 217-224. 59 godske 1956: 22. 60 thornthwaite, c. w. “a charter for climatology. presidential address at the first session of the commission for climatology, washington, march 1953”. wmo bulletin. april 1953: 46. 61 “to many people at the present time, the content and scope of climatology is only this – the measuring, recording, and averaging of standard meteorological elements. i need not remind you that climatology when circumscribed in this way is sterile and unrewarding.” thornthwaite, c. w. “the task ahead in climatology. presidential address at the second session of the commission for climatology, washington, january 1957.” wmo bulletin. january 1957: 2-7, quote on p. 3; “surely at this stage, it should not be necessary to convince meteorologists that the prospect of fundamental progress is negligible as long as climatology remains purely descriptive! the collected world weather charts, although they have the merit of containing in concise form a record of world weather from july 1957 to december 1958, will remain little more than a set of pretty picture books, unless the numerical data extracted from them be rationally analyzed.” schumann, t. e. w. “world meteorology: retrospect and prospect”. wmo bulletin. january 1959: 29-35, quote on p. 34. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 94 the commission on climatology, r. g. veryard from the uk, in 1959 proposed establishing a permanent working group to study climate change, the reception was “somewhat divided”.62 instead, after a suggestion by the swedish meteorologist carl christian wallén, the initiative resulted in a symposium on climatic changes held in rome in 1961.63 another reason the institute for weather and climate research did not focus on climatology, was that the meteorological office already had its own section for climate.64 in 1950, they employed two meteorologists and ten assistants.65 ten years later, the number of meteorologists had increased to four and the number of assistants to fourteen.66 however, in a period when state funding for meteorology in norway was increased by a factor of seven from the end of the war to 1960, this meant that the proportion of funds appropriated for climatology had decreased from 3.2 percent to below 2 percent.67 with the exception of the project headed by hesselberg during the second world war, the section for climate did very limited research. in addition to functioning as a public library for government agencies and insurance companies that wanted information on specific weather conditions in the past, the main activity was limited to making charts and tables for individual weather observation posts. to the section for climate, ‘climate’ was as julius hann had defined in the late 19th century: the average weather conditions at a single point on the planet.68 every year they published 5-day statistics from 34 stations and monthly statistics from 171 observation posts.69 all calculations were done by hand, and by the end of 1956 they had a backlog of 598 months.70 according to meteorologist sigurd evjen, head of the section for climate from 1949 to 1956, the lack of research ambition was due to a lack of manpower. when jerome namias visited oslo in 1949, he had explained that his section for long-term forecasting in the united states had sixty meteorologists, which was about the same as the total number of meteorologists in norway: “we simply do not have the manpower to begin embarking upon the massive undertaking necessary for systematic predictions like in the united states”, evjen argued.71 ragnar fjørtoft, who in 1955 succeeded hesselberg 62 “climatology”. wmo bulletin. april 1959: 86. 63 unesco. changes of climate. proceedings of the rome symposium organized by unesco and the world meteorological organization. belgium. 1963. 64 interview with arne foldvik, bergen, 10.10.2014. 65 det norske meteorologiske institutt (hereafter: dnmi), boks 283, budsjettforslag for meteorologisk institutt, 1945-1957. budsjettforslag for de meteorologiske institusjoner 1951-52. [‘budget proposal for the meteorological institutions 1951-52’]. oslo, 31.08.1949. 66 dnmi. årsberetning for de meteorologiske institusjoner i norge for budsjettåret 1. juli 1959 til 31. desember 1960. [‘annual report from the meteorological institutions in norway for the budget year july 1 1959 to december 1, 1960’]. oslo. 1962. 67 my calculation based on the accounts printed in the annual reports from the meteorological office. 68 hann, julius. handbuch der klimatologie. ‘[handbook of climatology’]. stuttgart. 1908. for more on the genesis of the empirical tradition, see: nebeker, frederik. calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century. academic press. 1995: chapter 2. 69 dnmi. norsk meteorologisk årbok. annual publication. 1945-1979. 70 dnmi, box 285. “budsjettforslag mi, 1966-1970.” budsjettforslag for de meteorologiske institusjoner for året 1970. [‘budget proposal for the meteorological institutions for the year 1970’]. february 8, 1969: attachment 18.2: 1. 71 “langtidsvarslene fra usa et gigantisk vær-eksperiment” [‘the us long term forecasts a gigantic weather experiment’]. verdens gang. 9.7.1955. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 95 as the head of the norwegian meteorological institute, however, argued that the problem was in the methods and not the ambitions: “the reason why the section for climate is so inefficient is not primarily in the lack of staff, but in the methods and technical aids the section has at its disposal.”72 from 1957 the section started using punch card machines, but the ambitions did not change: climate research still consisted of organizing the records of the past and providing statistics for one and one place only. after the computer facit 1 was inaugurated at the meteorological office in the summer of 1961, the capacity of the section for climate greatly expanded, and so did its activities.73 reflecting the emphasis on weather forecasting, between 70 and 80 percent of the computing time was spent on routinely producing computer generated upper air forecasts.74 still, while the climatologists used less than 15 percent of the computing time, this meant they could produce climate statistics on demand for road engineers, architects, agriculture, shipping industries, as well as electricity producers. although climate prediction by now was off the table, statistics of temperatures in different parts of the county were useful for estimating power consumption, and a tool for managing the power supply. producing climate statistics was not a new task: already in 1949 the climate section had been asked to identify the 10-day period in which the average weather conditions would be most advantageous for arranging the winter olympics in oslo in 1952. with the computer, the calculations that in 1949 had taken months could now be completed in a matter of hours.75 too many weather maps not all meteorologists agreed with prioritizing hydrodynamic research, and in the mid1950s there was some debate regarding what kind of meteorological research to pursue. most notably, meteorologist petter dannevig published a series of articles in the popular science magazine, naturen, arguing that too much time was spent drawing weather maps.76 at three forecasting stations and nine airports, surface maps were drawn manually up to eight times per day, in addition to two daily altitude maps. all this mapmaking, dannevig argued, was turning meteorology into a handicraft, where science was reduced to a spare-time hobby with little to no impact on the practice of forecasting: “it might seem paradoxical, but at times the meteorologists seem not to see the weather due to all the weather maps.”77 dannevig’s remedy was to centralize the mapmaking and use the resources that were freed up on applying past climate observations in synoptic 72 dnmi, box 283. “budsjettforslag for meteorologisk institutt, 1945-1957” [‘budget proposal for the meteorological office, 1947-57’]. budsjettforslag for de meteorologiske institusjoner for 1955/56. july 1, 1954: 4. 73 dnmi. årsberetning for de meteorologiske institusjoner i norge for 1961. [‘annual report from the meteorological institutions in norway for 1961’]. oslo. 1963. 74 dnmi. annual reports, 1961-1971. 75 den internasjonale olympiske komité. oslo 1952, vi olympiske vinterleker/olympic winter games. oslo 1952: 72; godske 1956: 184-185. 76 dannevig, petter. “værvarslingen ved korsveien” [‘forecasting at a crossroads’]. naturen. no. 8. 1955; dannevig, petter. “værvarslingsmetodene i søkelyset” [‘spotlight on the forecasting methods’]. naturen. no. 15. 1955; dannevig, petter. “værvarslingen og vitenskapen” [‘forecasting and science’]. naturen. 1956. 77 dannevig 1955: 228. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 96 statistics, documenting what “normally” happened in specific weather conditions. however, his suggestion was not followed up on: by 1962, the forecasting section at the meteorological office in oslo, the largest one of three in the country, alone produced a minimum of 69 weather maps per day.78 regardless, dannevig’s bottom line echoed the mentality of most norwegian postwar meteorologists: science or not, the pinnacle of meteorology was weather forecasts. if climate studies had a role to play, it was to improve the forecasts. synoptic statistics was not the only option for making climate observations useful for predictions. inspired by the 30-day forecasts from the u.s. weather bureau, evjen suggested combining climate statistics and persistence trends to make similar long-term forecasts for norway. however, when put to the test, he concluded that in order to achieve 90 percent certainty, the confidence interval for average temperatures in the coming month had to be on plus/minus 3.8 degrees centigrade. this, he dryly noted, “would have severely limited practical application”.79 when evjen died in november the following year, it seems no one was interested in continuing the project.80 concluding remarks this paper has posed a negative question: why did the norwegian meteorologists not pursue climate prediction in the first decades after the second world war, despite funding and an explicit mandate to do so? at first glance, the answer seems simple: despite methods from several disciplines, climate variations were greater than the trends. the “signal to noise” problem, and the huge amounts of calculations which would have had to be made by hand, led to climate predictions being seen as too time-consuming and too complex to be feasible. however, more factors were involved. the different actors had different understandings of ‘climate’. for vogt, climate was what controlled the rain that fueled the hydropower. for the section for climate, climate was the average weather conditions for a single observation point. for hesselberg and birkeland, climate was a regional phenomenon whose variations could be mapped over time. for høiland, climate was the old-fashioned and sterile study of statistical averages. as head of the institute for weather and climate research, høiland’s view had a deep impact on the research interests of his institutions, and was reflected in the researchers he chose to recruit. in contrast, climatology in norway lacked a ‘champion’ who could generate funding, organize recruitment and define what research to pursue. 78 the maps produced were six altitude maps, eight surface maps, six synoptic maps of norway, seventeen prognostic maps, six analytical maps, and twenty-four weather maps to be telexed to airports. in addition, maps for 100mb and 200mb altitudes were produced most but not every day. det norske meteorologiske institutt. årsberetning for de meteorologiske institusjoner i norge for budsjettåret 1962. oslo. 1964. 79 evjen sigurd: “statistisk varsling av middelverdier” [‘statistical forecasting of mean values’]. naturen. 1955: 181. see also: evjen, sigurd. “statistiske stikkprøver som forundersøkelse for 30-dagers-varsling” [‘statistical sampling a preliminary investigation for 30-day forecasting’]. værtjeneste-memorandum. no. 4. det norske meteorologiske institutt. oslo. 1956. 80 evjen had studied climate prediction since the 1920s. evjen, sigurd. “barometerschwingungen und langsichtige prognosen” [‘barometric oscillations and long-term forecasting’]. geofysiske publikasjoner. vol iv, no. 1. 1927; evjen, sigurd. “zur langfristigen wettervorhersage” [‘on long-term weather forecasting’]. geofysiske publikasjoner. vol. x, no. 3. 1935; evjen, sigurd. “forecasting north-west gales in the skager rack (a synoptic-statistical study)”. geofysiske publikasjoner. vol. xvii, no. 5. 1949. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 97 further, climate studies had an inferior status among the meteorologists. it was seen as a science of a lower order focused on mapping the past rather than predicting the future based on already uncovered mechanisms. while this could have been seen as a call to arms, none were in a position to pick up the gauntlet. a similar lack of practical output did not stop the highly theoretical research into hydrodynamic equations at høiland’s institution. while the research did give new insights into the mechanics of the atmosphere, the results were essentially useless at the time. there were meteorologists who argued for more investment in climate studies, but they too maintained that the goal was to aid weather forecasting and not to develop climate prediction. besides, the drought which had caused vogt to contact the norwegian academy of science and letters did not return. the summer of 1947 was soon seen as an anomaly, not a warning of a lasting change. unlike climate prediction, forecasting was not just scientific and useful; it was also seen as attainable. when fredrik vogt contacted the norwegian academy of science and letters after the drought in 1947, he was simply asking too much: climate prediction was understood to be impossible, and no one were willing to challenge this orthodoxy. acknowledgements different versions of this paper were presented at the workshop “climate in meteorology, meteorology in climate studies” in bergen in november 2014 and at the 6th norwegian conference on the history of science in oslo in february 2015. i am grateful for the input from the discussions. i am also grateful for the comments on the manuscript from the anonymous reviewers, astri andresen, gunnar ellingsen, james r. fleming, alexander hall, ana lorena ruano and svein atle skålevåg, as well as thorleif aass kristiansen for help finding source material. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 53 the dilemma of reticence: helmut landsberg, stephen schneider, and public communication of climate risk, 1971-1976 gabriel henderson aarhus university aarhus, denmark “most of the crucial issues of human survival that will confront humanity over the next few decades will call for ethical and political value judgments – decisions on how to act in the face of uncertainties. … human value judgments are too important to be left exclusively to the experts.” – stephen schneider 1 “science is not as objective as some people think. often human value judgments (or even prejudices) make things move as much as curiosity or the search for answers as to ‘why.’” – helmut landsberg 2 during the tumultuous mid-1970s, when energy and food shortages, environmental pollution, and political instability induced suspicions that america was increasingly susceptible to increased climatic instability, american climatologists helmut landsberg and stephen schneider disagreed strongly on whether scientists should engage the public about the future risks and urgency of climate change. on the one hand, schneider, a young climate modeler with the national center for atmospheric research (ncar), expressed explicitly an unwillingness to embrace reticence as an appropriate response to the risks of climate change. to illustrate the gravity of the situation, he frequently resorted to vivid and frightening metaphors to convince the public and policy makers that i want to express my gratitude to ruth morgan and the anonymous reviewer who contributed thoughtful suggestions to improve and refine the scope of this article. i would also like to thank my colleagues at the center for science studies at aarhus university for their suggestions to strengthen my narrative and flow of argument: dania achermann, matthias heymann, and janet martin-nielsen. 1 stephen schneider and lynne mesirow. the genesis strategy: climate and global survival (plenum publication corp., 1976). 2 landsberg to toni gerber, 15 november 1977, series 3, box 10, papers of helmut landsberg, university of maryland-college park, hereafter referred to as phl. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 54 his sense of urgency was warranted. ranging from wolves lurking in the forest to a large ship heading toward an iceberg to russian roulette, he fashioned climate change as an object of fear that – without proper preventative measures – could overwhelm the defenses of society. relying heavily on computer-based climate models to justify his concerns, schneider joined a growing chorus of concerned scientists who adopted the role of an environmental advocate. passionate for change, he pushed for national and international policies that would expand the margins of safety and reduce the effects of detrimental climatic conditions on the global food supply. an idea embodied in his 1976 manifesto the genesis strategy, he cautioned against a wait-and-see attitude to global problems and chastised those who he believed were complacent “global survival gamblers” who risked the welfare of future human civilization. while he cautioned his audience that his sciencebased claims were distinct from his political and philosophical judgments – a practice he believed would protect his credibility as a professional scientist – the meaning of these distinctions collapsed from the perspective of his detractors who believed that he was acting more like a celebrity than a scientist. 3 one of the most notable detractors of the period was helmut landsberg, a much older worldrenowned climatologist employed with the university of maryland institute for fluid dynamics and applied mathematics in college park, md. frustrated with what appeared to be an activist spirit motivating socially-aware scientists like schneider, landsberg believed that scientists who studied the climate should stay out of the spotlight given what he considered to be a myriad of scientific uncertainties about the causes of climatic change. concerned about the credibility of climatology as a professional discipline given his own role in its maturation since the 1940s, landsberg cast considerable doubt on the validity of relying on computer-based models to inform policy makers and the general public. unless one could adequately quantify the scientific uncertainties that underlay scientific claims based on models, he believed that reticence was the only appropriate course of action until such uncertainties could be identified and resolved. staying behind closed doors, cautiously hedging one’s claims by quantifying and emphasizing scientific uncertainty, and diligently collecting and analyzing data to resolve such uncertainties were hallmark characteristics of what he envisioned to be a professional atmospheric scientist. on the face of it, the issue of reticence seems relatively benign given what may appear to be an intuitive answer from a more contemporary vantage point. of course, one may argue with little pause, schneider was right in his advocacy for more publicly-engaged scientists to inform the public about the high stakes of climate change and the potential collapse of western civilization. 4 yet, why would two climatologists – admittedly of very different backgrounds and experiences – 3 during the 1960s and 1970s, the professional identity of ecology also underwent a profound shift with regard to proper levels of public engagement. see, dorothy nelkin, “ecologists and the public interest,” the heritage hastings report 6, 1 (february 1976): pp. 38-44. also, see a summary of the esa report within richard miller and john reed, “summary report of the ecology study committee with recommendations for the future of ecology and the ecological society of america,” bulletin of the ecological society of america 46, 2 (july 1965): pp. 61-82. 4 naomi oreskes and erik conway. the collapse of western civilization: a view from the future (new york: columbia university press, 2014). history of meteorology 6 (2014) 55 disagree during a time when american society was primed to advance policies to minimize the costs of climate change and avert potential disaster? 5 to problematize what at first appears to be an intuitive need for scientists to engage the public, this article examines reticence under the light of historical inquiry. by examining closely the beliefs of landsberg and schneider within the context of the environmentally-conscious 1970s, one immediately realizes that the decision to speak out publicly had important ramifications for how scientists envisioned themselves as responsible gatekeepers of knowledge and participants in an always changing society – an issue that continues to resonate in the highly contentious climate politics of the present day. reticence as problematic in contemporary climate politics two years after former us vice president al gore addressed the world with his 2006 documentary an inconvenient truth, his friend and colleague in climate advocacy, james hansen, a climate modeler and director of the nasa goddard institute of space studies, spoke about the need for scientists to speak publicly about the calamitous risks of climate change. passionate about the role of outspoken scientists in steering society away from future dangers, figures like hansen and gore believed that their actions must compensate for what appears to be a general bias within the atmospheric science community to remain conservative and reticent. "well, scientists are naturally reticent, i think," spoke hansen on january 8, 2008 during an interview with terry gross on national public radio's (npr) show, fresh air. 6 hansen’s comment was not off-the-cuff, but rather a deliberate acknowledgement of what he considered to be the dangers of reticence within the scientific community – a topic on which he had recently written at length. within a paper in environmental research letters entitled “scientific reticence and sea level rise,” hansen accepted that scientific reticence may have been a consequence of the natural skepticism implicit within the practice of science. he used this largely academic forum, however, to warn policymakers that “excessive caution” by individual scientists may secure humanity’s fate in light of the risks of climate change (e.g. sea level rise; collapsing ice sheets). "we may rue reticence, if it serves to lock in future disasters," he cautioned. 7 in the wake of hansen’s claims about reticence in 2007/08, science journalists mark buchanan and philip ball took it upon themselves to discuss whether reticence was an outdated norm in light of the risks of anthropogenic climate change. buchanan, a physicist and monthly columnist for the journal nature physics, argued that reticence may be appropriate when addressing specific or technical aspects of climatic change but may be inappropriate when addressing general ideas that are already well-grounded in science. “one can be cautious about mechanisms and outcomes,” he suggested, “but far more vocal on general points that seem beyond dispute.” while he failed to specify what he meant by ‘general points,’ he challenged what he called “linear 5 beginning in 1974, the u.s. government began to introduce seminal legislation designed to deal with the effects of climate change in american society. passed in 1978 under jimmy carter, the national climate program act solidified climate as a political issue. 6 interview with mark bowen and james hansen, fresh air, 8 january 2008. 7 see, james hansen, “scientific reticence and sea level rise,” environmental research letters 2, 2 (apriljune 2007). for further reflections, see james hansen. storms of my grandchildren: the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity (new york: bloomsbury, 2009). henderson, the dilemma of reticence 56 thinking” that appears to dominate discussions of climate change, and called for a reframing of future climatic effects not as “irresponsible hysteria” but as “plausible speculation.” for him, the facts of the case – while not known in every detail – allows room to call into the question the virtue of staying silent given the dangers of disturbing a highly nonlinear system like the global atmosphere. 8 on the other hand, philip ball, a freelance science writer, argued in nature that reticence among climate scientists appears to have grown “out of fashion.” ball begins with the question of whether the abandonment of reticence is good for science – a practice that he defines as the “the stock-and-trade of good science.” while he reasoned that hansen has the right to voice his beliefs as an individual citizen, ball points out that he should not consider himself a public spokesperson of the scientific community if a majority of his peers appear more conservative in their claims than him (e.g. the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc). that hansen is so unique in his public behaviors and statements provides an opportunity to ask whether he does, in fact, have a monopoly on what is best. indeed, ball argues, if scientists were to abandon their allegiance to caution and reticence – the very things that distinguish science from politics or sensationalism in the popular press – then climate science “ceases to be true science.” 9 ultimately, ball seems to assert an inherent need to balance a respect for the value of reticence as a way to protect the integrity of scientific practice while acknowledging the risks of abandoning reticence for the sake of what some perceive to be the greater good. more recently, historians of science have begun to examine the role of reticence within american climate science community. according to naomi oreskes, keynyn brysse, jessica o’reilly and michael oppenheimer, climate scientists have traditionally privileged what it deems to be cautious claims in order to avoid or reduce suspicions that they are acting as anything other than professional scientists – what they call “erring on the side of least drama” (esld). in doing so, scientists pose a unique kind of risk to the future state of humanity. as they describe, esld provides a context for interpreting scientists' assessments of risk-laden situations, a challenge faced by the public and policy-makers. in attempting to avoid drama, the scientific community may be biasing its own work – a bias that needs to be appreciated because it could prevent the full recognition, articulation, and acknowledgment of dramatic natural phenomena that may, in fact, be occurring. after all, some phenomena in nature are dramatic. 10 while oreskes, ball, buchanan, and hansen all agree that reticence has a deep tradition in climate science, there seems to be disagreement among historians, scientists, and science journalists regarding whether the threat of climate change provides an opportunity for scientists to abandon 8 mark buchanan, “less reticence on nonlinear climate change,” nature physics 3 (2007): p. 291. 9 philip ball, “when its right to be reticent,” nature, 29 march 2007, http://www.nature.com/news/2007/070329/full/news070326-11.html#b3, last accessed 11 september 2014. 10 naomi oreskes, keynyn brysse, jessica o'reilly and michael oppenheimer, "climate change prediction: erring on the side of least drama?" global environmental change, 23 (2012): pp. 327-337, quote on p. 335. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 57 reticence as a norm of behavior. should scientists be more outspoken about the dangers of climate change (e.g. hansen) or should they continue to adhere to a norm that seems well entrenched but possibly irrelevant at best and dangerous at worst? while this issue has percolated to the surface in recent years, it behooves society to evaluate whether such disagreements are embedded in longer patterns in the history of science. certainly, as this article shows, present discussions about reticence are not unprecedented. by examining the history of disputes about reticence within the climate science community in the mid-1970s, and particularly the two distinctive visions offered by landsberg and schneider, one may be in a better position to understand and appreciate the costs that accompany either course of action during a time when climatology itself was stepping on the public stage for the first time. climatology as emerging discipline in america during the first half of the twentieth century, the study of the climate appears to have been a relatively uninspiring scientific pursuit. "through the first half of the twentieth century," argues historian spencer weart, "climate science was a sleepy backwater. people who called themselves 'climatologists' were mostly drudges who kept track of average seasonal temperatures, rainfall, and the like." 11 in some respects, the drudge-like conditions of those who were committed to studying the climate reflected a distinctive lack of professional development and understanding of the global climate system. climatologist c.e.p. brooks quipped in 1950, for instance, that there were "at least nine and sixty ways of constructing a theory of climatic change, and there is probably some truth in quite a number of them.” 12 from changes in elements of the earth’s orbit around the sun, to changes in solar radiation, to changes in atmospheric composition, researchers could not effectively account using a single theory for climatic variability on short-term and long-term time scales. equally frustrating for those who sought to study the climate professionally was the lack of a uniform definition of the term ‘climate.’ while the international meteorological organization defined 'climate' in 1935 as the average state of meteorological conditions as recorded over a standard period of thirty years (1901-1930), climatologist helmut landsberg remarked in 1950 that climate is “a rather elusive entity. there are at least twenty different definitions of the term climate.” 13 this lack of consensus regarding the causes and mechanisms of climate change as well as the lack of concise and widely-accepted definition of climate contributed to an underlying sense that climatology was merely mundane grunt work. as a testimonial to the relatively depressed state of affairs, climatologists were also fairly reserved when it came to public engagement. unlike meteorologists who were often approached to comment publicly on the frequency and causes of weather phenomena that directly effected of human lives, such as studying tornadoes, hurricanes, or lightning storms, those who studied the climate – weart’s “drudges” who tended to exist in the backrooms of organizations like the u.s. weather bureau – had little opportunity to study things that could be seen as directly relevant to the 11 spencer weart. discovery of global warming (cambridge: harvard university press, 2008): p. 10. 12 c.e.p. brooks, climate through the ages: a study of the climatic factors and their variations (new york: mcgraw-hill, 1949). 13 helmut landsberg, “climatic analysis and climatic fluctuation,” 4 august 1950, series 3, box 3, phl. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 58 short-term needs of society. climate was considered a humble topic of scientific interest in that it resided beneath the rapid and occasionally threatening daily variations of weather frequently discussed and sensationalized in popular media. as articulated in 1961, for instance, climatology is not a glamorous field. it does not produce what the newspaper jargon applied to science calls ‘exciting discoveries’ or ‘spectacular breakthroughs.’ improved knowledge in this field will, however, assure better living for mankind … these ‘bread and butter’ goals may not fire the imagination nor kindle much enthusiasm but they will help us to the necessities of life. 14 according to this account, climatology was indeed a mundane scientific pursuit but not because it was uninteresting to those who studied the climate. rather, climate was mundane by design; studying the climate was like studying what historian roger turner calls “infrastructural sciences,” which he defines as a set of organizationally intensive, but purposefully invisible, applied sciences. 15 despite such humble beginnings, the 1960s and 70s acted as a sea change for the professional development of climatology as a scientific discipline. landsberg, for instance, surmised in the early 1980s – and not without a mild tone of regret – that climate had undergone a dramatic shift in importance due to what he considered to be a rise of concern over global food production and population growth. as he characterized with the benefit of hindsight, in recent years much has been written and said about climatic change – perhaps too much. there are two principal reasons for this, in a field which only two decades ago was regarded by many meteorologists as a backwater. one reason is that in a crowded world, already dangerously overpopulated in some regions, poor harvests caused by adverse weather can mean famine and even death. the other reason is the fear, not without justification, that people by their activities are altering the atmosphere to such an extent as to cause local and even global climatic changes. 16 coinciding with the professional development of climatology and the existence of fears and anxieties about population growth and anthropogenic climate change was a convergence of researchers from other disciplines into climate-related research areas. specialists from many disciplines historically tangential to climate research began to converge on the topic of climate out of a blend of curiosity, ambition, and an appreciation for the challenge of overcoming the complexities involved in studying the global atmospheric system. 17 in the wake of the international geophysical year in 1957/58 and the global atmospheric research program (garp) in the 1960s 14 “outline for climatology, 1961-1970.” u.s. department of commerce, 1961. this document is available in series 3, box 7, phl. 15 roger turner, “weather heights: the emergence of aeronautical meteorology as an infrastructural science” (2010). publicly accessible penn dissertations. paper 147. 16 helmut landsberg, ”use of early weather records,” weatherwise 34, 5 (october 1981): pp. 197-203. 17 spencer weart, “rise of interdisciplinary research on climate,” proceedings of the national academy of sciences 110, 1 (26 february 2013): pp. 3657-64. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 59 and 1970s, scientists were provided a set of tools that had been previously unavailable to study the global atmosphere. the expansion of weather observation networks alongside advancements in technology – radiosondes; rockets; meteorological satellites – provided grounds for believing that the enormous complexities of climatic systems could be overcome using sophisticated mathematics and technological prowess. this was both an opportunity and a problem for climatologists: while rapid changes in technology provided scientists from many different disciplines an enormous wealth of data about the natural world, translating that data into useful knowledge for theory-building lagged behind significantly. awash in the potential, landsberg himself seemed optimistic about the potential of computers to advance the field in the late 1960s: "i have full faith in the computer and would not want to go back to the days before it." 18 between 1950 and 1970, climate had become for the first time a trendy topic of popular and scientific interest, and rapid technological progress provided a hope that the complexities of the global atmosphere could be reduced to its most elemental physics. for those who witnessed such a sea change, the shift in priorities seemed nothing short of dramatic. “particularly gratifying,” noted landsberg in 1972, was “the fact that a large number of physical and dynamic meteorologists now consider climatological problems worthy targets of their endeavors, an aim they would have disdained as recently as a decade ago.” 19 aerosol-induced cooling as primary source of concern one of the most curious phenomenon facing climate scientists in the 1960s was what appeared to be a prolonged dip in global temperatures. in existence since the 1940s, the apparent cooling trend led many to suspect that human industrial activities could – if not already – influence the global atmospheric system. j. murray mitchell, a climatologist with the u.s. weather bureau’s office of climatology, suspected that human activities were releasing huge amounts of aerosols into the atmosphere and therefore altering the albedo of the earth. “at an ever-accelerating pace,” he noted publicly in 1968, “man is bringing a variety of changes to his environment which, if they have not yet had much impact on large-scale weather, they are almost certain to have in the future.” he went onto intimate that humankind may have not only altered local atmospheric environments with pollutants, but may have also “in a less obvious way” overloaded the world’s atmosphere to a point that may induce a long-term cooling in climate. 20 like murray, others expressed concern about the potential for a human-induced climatic change. as noted by charles hosler, a meteorologist and dean of the earth and mineral sciences at pennsylvania state university, “we’re putting astronomical quantities of materials into the atmosphere, and there’s no question it is affecting the weather. i’m afraid the changes are already greater than most people suspect, and there may be a threshold beyond which small changes in the 18 landsberg to franz baur, 13 june 1969, series 2.1, box 1, phl. 19 review of 1970 scep conference report by helmut landsberg, series 3, box 6, phl. 20 ”experts fears global cooling veil of pollution,” chicago tribune, 28 october 1968, p. a10. also, j. murray mitchell (jr.), “recent secular changes of global temperature,” annals of the new york academy of sciences 95 (october 1961): pp. 235-250; j.m. mitchell, “on the worldwide pattern of secular temperature change,” changes of climate (1963): pp. 161-81. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 60 weather could bring about a major shift in the world’s climate.” 21 for more outspoken scientists, the signal was becoming clearer with every passing year that human civilization itself may be at risk in the not too distant future. as reid bryson, a climatologist with the university of wisconsinmadison and director of the center for climate research, stated in 1969, looking at the climate of the past, it is clear that small changes in the past 10,000 years had very large ecological effects and they can happen bloody fast. the end of the ice age took less than a century – kapow! it’s fast, and that worries me because we don’t know but what in a few years we could have a significant change that could disrupt our entire climate. and that includes where we grow corn and wheat. 22 amidst prevalent concerns that this drop in global temperatures represented a potential hazard for domestic agricultural and energy production, the american government and scientific establishment sought develop plans to develop a national climate program. 23 however, many published reports disseminated to policy makers stated that the science of climate prediction – a kind of holy grail of atmospheric scientists and policy makers alike given the potential to defend against the vagaries of climate – was deficient. without the ability to predict accurately the future of climatic change, policy makers would have a very difficult time translating science into ameliorative policies to manage the perceived risks. one report summarized that “advanced knowledge of long-term future changes of climate, of undoubted value to modern society, is not yet available . . . at present, we do not even know enough about the problem of climate predictability to know whether long-term predictions are a realistic possibility.” 24 two years later, the congressional research service (crs) – the research arm of the u.s. congress – a published a report entitled, “a primer on climatic variation and change.” specifically requested to summarize the state of climate science for legislative purposes, the report mirrored broader historical frustrations that hindered the development of climatology for most of the 20 th century: “so far, there is no single comprehensive theory, or even a combination of a small number of theories, that completely explains – much less predicts – climate fluctuation or change.” 25 this political and scientific uncertainty combined with significant technological progress in the late 1960s and early 70s provided a rather unsettling foundation upon which climate researchers could engage society about serious environmental and economic problems. scientists understood 21 richard james, “changing climate: scientists charge that increased air pollution is altering the weather,” wall street journal, 31 december 1969, p. 1. 22 ibid. 23 u.s. national research council. understanding climatic change: a program for action (washington, d.c.: national academy of sciences, 1975); a united states climate program plan (washington: federal coordinating council for science, engineering and technology (july 1977). 24 "report of the ad hoc panel on the present interglacial" (washington, d.c.: federal council for science and technology, 1974): p. iii. 25 "a primer on climatic variation and change," prepared for the subcommittee on the environment and the atmosphere of the committee on science and technology, u.s. house of representatives, 94 th congress, congressional research service (washington, d.c.: u.s. government printing office, 1976). history of meteorology 6 (2014) 61 that potential existed to understand the complexities of the global climate system, but there appeared little to go on other than funding additional research and expanding an awareness of a climate threat. no guidebook existed to determine whether someone should speak about the risks of climate in public forums, nor was there enough information to quantify the uncertainties that existed about the timing, severity, and scope of climate change. uncertainty was ubiquitous, and the only thing seemingly agreed upon was that complacency was no longer an option. as reported generally in 1977 within mosaic, a news reporting publication under the auspices of the u.s. national science foundation, among some climatologists today there is a feeling – not yet a consensus – that there is current evidence of world-wide climate change. and, while there are major differences among climatologists about the causes, nature, and direction of climate change, there is general agreement that climatic variability is a phenomenon whose existence has been underestimated or ignored until now, and that more knowledge about climate is needed urgently. 26 ultimately, between 1950 and 1977, the discipline of climatology in the united states underwent a radical shift in relevance to coping with societal challenges. a range of factors – technological developments, political urgency, concerns by scientists that humans were inducing changes in the climate, and what appeared to be a prolonged dip in global temperatures – created a window of opportunity for elite scientists to re-evaluate the role of climate in societal affairs. 27 envisioning computers as the key to unwrapping the mystery of climate change, small groups of researchers within the united states – for example, the university of california at los angeles, the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory in princeton, new jersey, and the national center for atmospheric research (ncar) in boulder, colorado – began to simulate the global climate system using models to calculate complex thermoand hydro-dynamics equations. although the models were crude in that they could not adequately address the complex small-scale processes that determine local weather, they nonetheless replicated many of the most important features of the global atmospheric system that could in time allow both scientists and policy makers a glimpse into the future state of climate. schneider’s entry into climate modeling and public engagement, 1966-1971 beginning in the mid-1960s, a young physicist by the name of stephen schneider began his undergraduate and graduate studies at columbia university. while initially interested in designing race cars due to the excitement of pushing the frontiers of engineering and science, he learned quickly that his interests resided elsewhere. he was drawn to courses offered by experimental physicist leon lederman and c.k. “john” chu, each of whom introduced the idea that science was 26 warren kornberg, “climate, weather, and aridity,” mosaic 8, 1 (january/february, 1977): p. 15. mosaic has been published by the national science foundation since 1970. 27 for an elaboration on the role of elite atmospheric scientists in exploiting political opportunities for the benefit of atmospheric science, see david hart and david victor, “scientific elites and the making of us policy for climate change research, 1957-1974,” social studies of science 23, 4 (november 1993): pp. 643-680. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 62 not about making discoveries useful only to scientists but also recognizing that science had something to say about the direction of society generally. as schneider recalled, chu was “interested in politics; he was interested in how science made a difference in the world, not just the science for its own sake. . . and i thought that was pretty neat and i was kind of hoping that i would go on, and work with him.” 28 amidst the youthful rebelliousness of the 1960s, schneider was politically moderate but believed that his knowledge of science could promote significant societal reform in what he considered a positive direction. “i didn’t just want to discover something just for its own sake,” he recalled. “yes, i was curiosity driven, but i wanted what i did to make a difference in the world. that was always a deep and abiding passion in me.” 29 slipping away from his graduate studies in physics when circumstances permitted, he conducted climate research in his spare time at the nasa goddard institute for space studies (giss). there, he quickly learned that computers provided an illustrious opportunity for science to benefit society directly. two personal encounters reinforced his optimism. the first took place in 1970, when famed weather and climate modeler joseph smagorinsky gave a talk at columbia university. smagorinsky, who had already acquired eminence within the atmospheric science community for his work on numerical weather prediction during the early 1950s, believed that modeling the global climate system could one day yield accurate and reliable predictions. 30 as director of the geophysical fluid and dynamics laboratory in princetion, nj since the late 1960s, smagorinsky saw promise in using a nine-dimensional circulation model with ever increasing resolution to predict two weeks in advance the future state of the global atmosphere. 31 while smagorinsky was cautious about using computer-based models for predictive purposes to advise policy makers, his talk nonetheless led schneider to believe that computers can not only be useful for heuristic purposes but also predictive ones. “how exciting,” he recalled, “it was that you could actually simulate something as crazy as the earth, and then pollute the model, and figure out what might happen – and have some influence on policy in a positive way which was something i’d always wanted to do.” 32 schneider’s second encounter involved a brief encounter at an annual meeting of the american geophysical union with w.w. kellogg, the director of laboratory of atmospheric sciences at the national center for atmospheric research in boulder, colorado. while few within 28 s.h. schneider and r.m. chervin, 2002-01-10: american meteorological society (ams) oral history project, archives, national center for atmospheric research (ncar), p. 10. 29 ibid., p. 14. 30 for insight into the development of modeling, see interview of joseph smagorinsky by spencer weart on march 1, 1989, niels bohr library and archives, american institute of physics, college park, md, usa, http://www.aip.org/history/ohilist/5056.html. also, for a historical analysis of the development of numerical weather prediction (nwp), see harper, kristine. weather by the numbers: the genesis of modern meteorology (cambridge: mit press, 2008). 31 j. smagorinsky, “the role of numerical modeling,” bulletin of the american meteorological society 48 (1967): pp. 89-93; syukuro manabe, joseph smagorinsky, j. leith holloway, jr., and hugh stone, “simulated climatology of a general circulation model with a hydrologic cycle,” monthly weather review 98, 3 (march 1970): pp. 175-212. 32 schneider interview (2002), p. 29. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 63 the columbia physics community knew about or recognized schneider's interests in climate-related issues at the time, the agu meeting provided him an opportunity to learn more about what he considered to be a captivating world of computer-based simulation. having just witnessed smagorinsky’s talk, schneider approached kellogg to discuss his research interests regarding the role of human activity on global atmospheric temperatures. apparently impressed with schneider's curiosity, kellogg invited him to participate in an upcoming meeting in europe specifically convened to examine such issues. held in stockholm in the summer of 1971 and titled “study of man’s impact on climate,” schneider met many of the most eminent minds in the world such as german climatologist herman flohn, climate modeler syukuro manabe, phillip thomson, among a host of others. attending a world-class meeting on a global stage was an exhilarating experience: “i would have cancelled anything i had, including a wedding to go to that! so of course i did it,” he recalled. 33 coincidentally, this meeting also exposed schneider to the porous boundaries between the internal world of scientific deliberation and the world outside of academia. engagement in public affairs was unsettled terrain, and during the last few days of his time in europe in july 1971 schneider was informed that research he conducted in consultation with giss researcher s.i. rasool would be published in the journal, science. 34 using some of the most advanced computers available during that time, schneider argued provocatively that a prolonged continuation of emissions – perhaps on the order of five to ten years – would trigger an ice age. schneider's colleagues within the atmospheric science community might have shied away from such provocative claims, but the american media was drawn to what seemed like a scientifically-robust prediction worthy of serious alarm. for schneider, the experience of what it actually meant to produce science that contributed to popular discussions about climate was slightly surreal. “it was a baptism of fire,” he recalled. “so i started to feel like i was getting too much attention, plus a problem i have not had since, but i was nervous about this. i had no experience doing this stuff. this was quite a trial by pen and microphone.” 35 something clicked inside schneider. given the enormous implications of climate on human affairs, he understood that the public needed to have an accurate understanding of the issues and not be persuaded by those he felt confused or distorted what he considered to be a serious threat. the initial inspiration was an article written for the new york times by eugene guccione in 1971, a chemical engineer and senior editor of engineering and mining journal. while not opposed dogmatically to environmentalists' concerns, guccione wrote his piece in an effort to cast doubt on those who appeared to exaggerate environmental threats for political gain. to bolster his case against the environmental movement, he directed the reader to environmentalists’ tendency to promulgate messages about future climate-induced doom – a practice that he believed amounted to contradictory and confusing claims about future ice ages and global warming. the problem, 33 ibid., p. 35. 34 s.i. rasool and s.h. schneider, “atmospheric carbon dioxide and aerosols: effects of large increases on global climate,” science 173, 3992 (july 9, 1971): pp. 138-141. 35 schneider interview, p. 41-42. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 64 according to guccione, was that climate change was becoming a way for environmentalists to scare an already anxious public. 36 as someone who had just published an article that sought to disentangle the science behind such contradictory claims, schneider sought to inject what he considered a more reasoned perspective on the matter. noting what appeared to be guccione’s tendency to conflate environmental exaggerations with real climate risks, schneider appeared to position climate as an important consideration that should be examined on its own terms. characterizing guccuione’s claims as “often inaccurate and certainly misleading” and his tone as “supercilious,” schneider cast guccione’s dismissive attitude toward future climatic change as irresponsible without first committing time to appreciating the complexities involved (i.e. one should not disregard the threat of climate change merely because the media is laden heavily with confusing or contradictory messages about future climate-induced problems). 37 by bringing attention to the importance of climate change in his 1971 article, as well as defending the legitimacy of the climate threat against skeptics of the environmental movement in popular news outlets, schneider’s comments reinforced a growing chorus of individuals – bryson, mitchell, hosler – who believed that climate was becoming a potential threat to human civilization. from the beginning of his studies at columbia in the late 1960s as an undergraduate and later as a graduate student, schneider defined himself as someone committed to exploiting opportunities to inject himself into the public discourses about climate variability. schneider’s transition to public figure, 1973-1976 having left columbia university for a position at that national center for atmospheric research (ncar) in the summer of 1973, and having already acquired a reputation among some sectors of the climate science community as an outspoken but talented climate modeler, schneider became increasingly committed politically to advancing a sense of urgency among the general public, scientists, and policy makers. to him, the uncertainty of state-of-the-art climate models did not lead to a belief that he should be reticent, but rather demonstrated an increased need to go public and convince others to respond to the threat of increased climatic variability. increased variability was problematic not only because it made prediction difficult, but also because producers of food would have a harder time planning for the future. his belief was rooted in what he considered to be real-world pragmatism; while models were insufficient to define the future state of climate given its enormous complexity, he believed that basing decisions on estimates – however general and vague – was more prudent than dealing with the potential ramifications of not being prepared at all. at first, schneider began to write articles intended largely for an academic or intellectual audience. publishing in journals like ambio, the bulletin of the american academy of the arts and sciences, science, and the journal of the atmospheric sciences during two-year span between 1974 36 eugene guccione, “no, breathe easier,” new york times, 28 august 1971, p. 25. 37 stephen schneider, “are we winning the war against pollution?” new york times, 16 september 1971, p. 42. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 65 and 1976, schneider investigated the potential ramifications of a deteriorating global food supply, and expressed his fears that a relatively stable warm climate that had existed during most of the 20 th century had given way to what he claimed to be a state of higher climatic variability. balance was central to his conception of environmental problems; without a sustainable balance between technological growth, population growth, and climate conditions, humankind was at risk of extreme malnutrition, starvation, and potential collapse. “the 1970s,” he wrote provocatively, “hold the potential for a crisis in human suffering on a scale which may be unprecedented in recorded history.” 38 integrating climate into broader discourses about “leverage points” – an early version of socalled “tipping points” – was also rooted in his skepticism toward geoengineering measures or what he called measures for the purpose of “climate stabilization.” 39 within a 1974 article co-authored with ncar colleague w.w. kellogg, for instance, schneider was clear: we believe that it would be dangerous to pursue any large-scale operational climate control schemes until we can predict their long-term effects on the weather patterns and the climate with some acceptable assurance. … to tamper with the system that determines the livelihood and life-styles of people around the world over would be the height of irresponsibility if we could not adequately foresee the outcome. 40 to protect against even minor climate variations, schneider advocated for an international policy to “cushion the shock” of inadequate food production. revitalizing the biblical story of joseph and the egyptian pharaoh, a story that speaks to the virtue of storing food during productive years for the benefit of having enough to eat during lean years, schneider imagined what he called a genesis strategy wherein entire nations would stock pile food. 41 politically savvy, schneider sought opportunities to convey his ideas to those whom he believed sympathized with the environmental left. one such occasion arose in february 1975 at the house of howard higman, a sociologist at the university of colorado and founder of the conference on world affairs. just as he had a few years earlier when he approached william kellogg, schneider was not shy when conveying his concerns with timothy wirth, a progressive democratic senator from colorado. critical of what he saw as the risky federal policies of u.s. 38 stephen schneider, “the population explosion: can it shake the climate?” ambio 3, 4 (1974): pp. 150155, quote on p. 152. 39 for an indication of why scientists are concerned about tipping points, see fred pearce, with speed and violence: why scientists fear tipping points in climate change (boston: beacon press, 2007); malcolm gladwell, the tipping point: how little things can make a big difference (new york: little, brown, and company, 2000). 40 w.w. kellogg and stephen schneider, “climate stabilization: for better or worse?” science 186, 4170 (december 27, 1974): pp. 1163-72. for a broader historical perspective of thought regarding geoengineering, see james fleming, fixing the sky: the checkered history of weather and climate control (new york: columbia university press, 2010). 41 stephen schneider, “food: the next crisis,” the national observer (5 june 1974): p. 18. this article appears to have been the first time that schneider mentioned publicly the idea of a “genesis strategy” to deal with the potential long-term effects of climate on the global food supply. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 66 secretary of agriculture earl butz, whose policies appeared to assume erroneously a continuation of favorable climatic conditions for agricultural production, schneider suggested the need for developed countries to endure major sacrifices through such means as population control, slower growth, and more attention to the difficult challenges of self-sufficiency. 42 similar in tone to the claims of outspoken environmentalists such as paul ehrlich who believed that human population growth had exceeded the ability of human civilization to feed itself, schneider was clearly intent on fashioning an identity very much aligned with broader environmentalist sentiments coursing through american culture since the late 1960s. 43 as schneider discussed his ideas with wirth in early 1975, he began working on a manuscript – more accurately a manifesto – that built upon the ideas that he had developed since the early 1970s. entitled the genesis strategy, he perceived an opportunity to engage popular audiences about the climate-food issue that he believed had failed to sink deeply into popular consciousness. for those who were supportive of schneider’s interests, the timing seemed appropriate. he laid his concerns clearly on the table for everyone to see. “i have decided to eschew the traditional role of scientist to advance knowledge quietly and instead to write a book that mixes politics and science and often goes beyond the confines of my academic training,” he wrote confidently. 44 these were powerful words if only because no book had yet been published that conjoined the science of climate with such political fervor. “with a new ‘ethic of prudence,’” he imagined, “perhaps we can begin our transition to a sustainable, workable world order and can hope to minimize the chances for either interim human catastrophes or long-range climatic damage.” 45 for those who knew schneider, the book would be nothing less than a strident attempt to push an agenda. indeed, walter orr roberts, a well-respected statesman of atmospheric science, remarked that “the book is going to be hard-hitting, somewhat controversial, and an excellent exposition of the subtleties of the problem, intended for general readers.” 46 as described explicitly in the introduction to the genesis strategy, schneider’s eschewal of what he called a more traditional ethic of reticence meant that he sought not only to publish a popular book about his concerns. “my chief concern for the future,” he surmised, “is political rather than scientific; it is that some wolves will attack long before we are certain enough of their existence to feel compelled to effect difficult political actions.” as he continued, such actions, however expensive or unpleasant, may be vital to hedge against dangerous plausibilities long before scientific certainty about their magnitude and timing is established. … i am deeply convinced of the real dangers that societies face 42 stephen schneider to timothy wirth, 21 february 1975, box 122, folder 9, timothy wirth collection, university of colorado archives. 43 paul sabin, the bet: paul ehrlich, julian simon, and our gamble over earth’s future (new haven, ct: yale university press, 2013). 44 schneider (1976): p. xiv. 45 ibid., p. xix. 46 walter orr roberts to robert stein, 6 november 1975, box 43, walter orr roberts collection, university of colorado archive. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 67 in the year ahead and the need to clarify the importance of the scientific component of these dangers. for him, the threat required one simple task of the audience – determine whether to take precautionary actions to ameliorate human suffering or cavalierly play russian roulette with the future of the world. 47 after its publication in 1976, most official reviewers who published in the popular and academic press praised schneider’s book for its substance, originality, and accessibility. roberts, an avid supporter of schneider and director of the aspen institute for humanistic studies, was the first to publish a book review wherein he praised schneider for writing a “superb and readable book” that focuses on the world predicaments. he went on to note that the book was “marvelously lucid,” “full of scientific detail,” and “excellently documented,” while labeling schneider as one among a “small number of brilliant young scientists … with impeccable credentials” who has made “original and important contributions to the mathematical modelling of weather and climate.” given roberts’s long-standing interest in issues of food and climate, he believed that schneider’s policy suggestions – while a bit naïve – were novel, refreshing and had the “marks of that admirable impatience of small solutions that characterizes youth.” 48 deborah shapley, a staff member at science magazine, characterized the book as an accurate and responsible portrayal of serious problems, and john oliver, a professor of geography at indiana state university, expressed his gratitude for schneider’s public efforts and a hope that decision makers would pay heed to his ideas. 49 given schneider’s rise as one of the most visible climatologists in the united states, rep. george brown, jr. (d-ca) asked him to testify soon after the publication of the genesis strategy in front of the house subcommittee on the environment and the atmosphere. given an increased reliance of americans on a stable climate, schneider argued that increased climatic variability was taxing existing technological and agricultural systems to a breaking point. aware of the deficiencies of current climate models to account for the complicated feedback mechanisms of the global climatic system, he testified that it was crucial to change the “political consciousness” of the united states and overcome the short-term perspective and whimsical interests of policy makers. “the worst mismatch in the future i see is the political system, whether it socialist or capitalist or totalitarian or democratic … is to short-term issues,” he cautioned. while he could not specifically address whether the climate would change for the worse in the near future, he did believe that climate change issues provided a “sort of last-ditch symbol” for governments to realize the importance of thinking on generational time-scales. 50 47 schneider (1976), p. xv. 48 walter orr roberts, “book review: the genesis strategy,” interdisciplinary science reviews 1, 3 (1976): 268-269. 49 deborah shapley, “the genesis strategy: a chilling prospect,” new york times, 18 july 1976, p. 165; john oliver, “global climate: review of the genesis strategy,” bioscience 27, 2 (february 1977): p. 128 50 stephen schneider, statement to the house, subcommittee on the environment and the atmosphere. the national climate program act, hearing, may 18, 1976 (serial 75-149 o): pp. 83-84. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 68 ultimately, between his public baptism by fire of 1971 and his inauguration as a public figure in 1976, schneider had molded himself as one of the most influential voices about the potential dangers of an imbalanced relationship between human society and the natural environment. adopting a rhetoric closely aligned with the environmentalist left, schneider consciously sought to straddle the boundary between political activism and scientific protocol. in doing so, however, he understood on an intellectual level that divulging his ideas publicly required that he adopt a public consciousness of environmental politics. it was not enough to merely convey one’s ideas emptily into the public realm in the hope to initiate change; schneider also had to continually mold himself to changing cultural circumstances so as to maintain both his professional credibility and cultural authority as a spokesperson for the risks of climate change. straddling the boundaries between his identity as a professional scientist and as public figure required something more deliberate. inhabiting a cultural middle ground the political and increasingly public steps that schneider took between 1975 and 1976 were not without risks to his professional credibility as a scientist. by using a tone of urgency with respect to future instabilities and advocating for fundamental change within existing government structures, schneider’s rhetoric appeared increasingly similar to the pessimistic claims of more vocal elements within the environmental movement. schneider was aware of the risks involved in expressing his philosophical and political judgments publicly in light of existing uncertainties, and he also knew that his judgments were being framed in light of what he called “a raging debate worthy of notice.” as he further characterized, as in other modern debates about aspects of the ‘world predicament,’ such as population, environment, and resources, articulate ‘prophets of doom’ were presenting strong evidence to support their theories of imminent catastrophe. meanwhile, with equal passion, choruses of ‘pollyannas’ were countering that history is replete with dire predictions of doomsday, none of which had yet come to pass. this debate between those whom he termed pollyannas and prophets of doom framed nascent discussions of climate change as an environmental problem and provided schneider with the political metrics by which to judge his own political rhetoric. schneider’s rhetoric existed in a cultural funnel of ideas frequently filtered through the sensational claims of the media, and it was in this world that he sought to engage despite the risks of doing so. “inevitably,” he surmised, newspaper editors and other purveyors of public information began to take sides. some hailed the courage of the sentinels of doom, while others accused them of overemphasizing disaster, thereby sapping our spirit. often the issues were oversimplified by arguments that we can continue to overcome our problems by keeping our spirits high, working hard, and using more technology. 51 51 schneider (1976): pp. x-xi. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 69 for schneider, the task was to negotiate a middle ground that could appeal to his concern for climate without sacrificing his credibility in lieu of the raging debates about environmental degradation. he was immersed in a cultural debate where the social rules were being developed in real-time, and he needed to portray himself in a particular way so as to elude the simplistic dichotomies often sensationalized in the media – a difficult problem to overcome given his own passion for environmental and climate matters. the process by which he maneuvered through the mine-field of these cultural tropes is manifest in his writings and public testimony. during his 1976 testimony for rep. brown’s climate hearing, schneider sought to compensate his sense of urgency with an explicit warning that his claims about future calamity were not in themselves emotion-laden doomsaying. “let me emphasize at the outset,” he clarified, “that i am not forecasting the end of the world.” 52 this cautious remark within such a political setting suggests that he was seeking to establish a boundary – at least a rhetorical one – between himself and more extreme elements of the environmental movement. in addition, within the preface of the genesis strategy, he recounts a tv reporter’s question whether scientists cried wolf too often regarding future environmental disasters. struck by the question, he offered the best response he could muster at the time: the journalist was waiting for a definite answer, and all i could offer was a statement of probability – the odds for human catastrophes related to the world among seemingly irreconcilable 'experts' about the seriousness, even the timing, of a host of prospective crises was a reflection of the uncertain state of scientific knowledge. 53 schneider's response was not an attempt to bypass the question, nor was it a direct response to the frequency of "cry-wolf" claims by scientists. rather, he took it as an opportunity to give what he saw as an honest assessment of the difficulties of dealing with the inherent risks of living in a highly complex society. nonetheless, he felt that the existence of uncertainties about environmental risks and the uncertain state of climate science was insufficient to limit one’s political ambitions to prevent future catastrophe. as he elaborated more fully in his preface, uncertainty does not simply mean that there are no problems; nor does it deserve a 'wait and see' attitude. … nor does political action require knowledge of the exact location of each tree behind which a wolf may be hiding. rather, knowledge of the probability that wolves do lurk in the forest should be sufficient information for deciding whether to take preventive action. … my chief concern for the future is political rather than scientific; it is that some wolves will attack long before we are certain enough of their existence to feel compelled to effect difficult political actions. 54 52 schneider testimony (1976), p. 39. 53 stephen schneider and lynne mesirow. the genesis strategy: climate and global survival (plenum publication corp., 1976), xi. 54 ibid. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 70 despite his attempts to situate himself as a moderate within the “raging debates” of environmental degradation and resource deletion, he nonetheless pursued a very public persona that directly reinforced his message that reticence was unacceptable. appearing on the johnny carson show on july 19, 1977 a year after the original release of the genesis strategy, schneider responded to a series of questions regarding the ability of scientists to predict the weather more than a few days in advance, a prospect that – given his experiences with kellogg and smagorinsky early in his career – appeared entirely possible. other conversation topics ensued, including issues of drought, whether the climate was cooling or warming, and even whether a recent weather fluctuation caused a serious black out in new york city. given what appeared to be signs that society was increasingly sensitive to even small-scale environmental challenges, schneider argued for building further resilience into society. “the laws of nature frequently are not in line with some of our laws,” he stated in an attempt to distinguish between natural laws – which are stable and enduring – and man-made laws – which tend to be short-sighted, sporadic, and clumsy. everything in human decision making, he believed, is a trade-off between risks and benefits and therefore decisions require the incorporation of value judgments to maximize margins of safety in spite of existing uncertainties. 55 certainly, by the summer of 1976, schneider had abandoned entirely any notion that he was a reticent scientist. his statements filled the air waves, and his modeling efforts acquired a new found importance for those interested in the future of climate and its effects. while he could not definitely say one way or the other how hazardous climate would be in the near future, he took every opportunity to go public about his concerns about the future. for better or worse, climate had become an environmental topic discussed widely in the public and political arena. the matter was discussed in the pages of newspaper and magazine headlines, policy makers were increasingly concerned about its potential effects, and many scientists not only adopted a language of urgency but made claims that unwittingly contributed to a range of confusing and contradictory messages about the future of climate. 56 in spite of his determination to negotiate a more moderate rhetoric on climate change within the context of existing debates over resource scarcity and environmental degradation – an effort characterized as adhering to disciplinary norms by emphasizing existing uncertainty; eschewing reticence by engaging with political advocacy while distancing himself from so-called prophets of doom – schneider’s emergence onto the political scene was perceived as inconsistent with established norms. even sympathizers themselves who valued schneider’s political ambition to make climate national concern suspected that his actions would likely face substantial criticism and 55 the tonight show starring johnny carson, 1977, university corporation for atmospheric research, http://www.ucar.edu/multimedia/videos/2010/schneider_tonightshow77.mov, last accessed 10 september 2014. 56 david salisbury, “earth’s climate changing?” the sun, 1 september 1974, p. trend1; harold schmeck (jnr.), “climate changes called ominous: scientists warn predictions must be made precise to avoid catastrophe,” new york times, 19 january 1975, p. 31; walter sullivan, “scientists ask why world climate is changing,” new york times, 21 may 1975, p. 92. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 71 even abuse from within more established ranks within climatology. as kenneth hare, a canadian climatologist and director of the institute for environmental studies at the university of toronto, noted in his own positive review of schneider’s genesis strategy, this is a risky game for a younger man to play, and he takes his professional life in his hands when he does so. for there is a widely held view that scientists ought to stay out of politics. getting into such questions is thought somehow to imperil one’s judgment, or one’s objectivity. above all, too active and too public an involvement in politics – even nonpartisan world strategic debate – is seen as the waste of a young man’s talents. we are a conservative profession. 57 landsberg’s response to the genesis strategy helmut erich landsberg was born in frankfurt am mein, germany in 1906. at the age of 24, he received his ph.d. in seismography from the frankfurt institute of meteorology and geophysics under the guidance of one of the preeminent seismologists of the 20th century, beno gutenberg. 58 grounded in early 20 th century geophysical sciences, landsberg felt comfortable in a variety of disciplines ranging from meteorology to seismology. after his graduate training, he held two professional positions, both of which were under meteorologist franz linke. his first task was to establish a weather station in the rhineland, followed with a position as chief of the taunus observatory near frankfurt in 1931. in 1934, after three years in frankfurt and upon a recommendation provided by gutenberg, he emigrated to the united states to help build a meteorology program at the pennsylvania state college. while he was a geophysicist by training, he committed himself to fashioning the field of climatology into a professionalized discipline by publishing in 1941 one of the first american textbooks in the field entitled physical climatology – a textbook that underwent multiple printings well into the 1960s. having established himself as one of the most recognized climatologists of the period by the 1940s, landsberg was given an opportunity to work with carl-gustaf rossby at the institute of meteorology at the university of chicago early in world war ii. soon thereafter, landsberg was asked to work as an operations analyst for the u.s. army air forces, a position that allowed him to understand the importance of atmospheric research to real-time decision making in war time. ranging from producing maps of climatic conditions for geographical regions for the purpose of bombing runs to conducting meteorological research to understand the influence of winds on strategic bombing accuracy, landsberg became an invaluable asset to his superiors. of particular importance to his superiors was to understand changing weather conditions for the purpose of conducting low-level incendiary bombing runs at night. 59 recognizing his talents, colonel w.b. leach, chief of the operations analysis, wrote to landsberg toward the end of the war that his “work as an operations analyst, specifically studies and analyses of weather problems as they 57 f. kenneth hare, “book review: the genesis strategy,” bulletin of the american meteorological society 58, 8 (august 1976): p. 1016 58 “beno gutenberg,” complete dictionary of scientific biography, vol. 5; “beno gutenberg,” science in the early twentieth century: an encyclopedia, abc-clio. 59 patrick hughes, “winning the war,” weatherwise 48, 3 (june 1995): pp.38-41. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 72 affected operations, missions, and planning of the air forces utilizing b-29s against the japanese empire, contributed materially to the success of our efforts.” 60 after serving in world war ii, landsberg became the acting director – and later the director – of the us air forces joint research and development board's committee on geophysical sciences. responsible for evaluating and coordinating service programs pertaining to the geophysical sciences in the united states, landsberg was given an opportunity to oversee geophysical research on a national scale. this was crucial experience that led him, in 1951, to become the director of the geophysics research directorate of the u.s. air force research center in cambridge, massachusetts, followed by an appointment as director of the u.s. weather bureau's office of climatology from 1954 to 1965. subsequently, he was asked to direct the newly built environmental data service within the environmental science service administration (essa) between 1965 and 1966, after which he finally concluded his long career as professor at the university of maryland institute of fluid dynamics and applied mathematics. 61 taken together, landsberg had a broad perspective of its development and assisted in its maturation during the 1950s and 60s, a point that was not lost on those who considered him unique. modeler joseph smagorinsky, the same climatologist who inspired schneider to pursue climate modeling in the early 1970s, believed that landsberg "played an important spiritual role as a leader and as a scientist," while swedish meteorologist c.c. wallen noted that there “has been at least one person who has played a fundamental role in the development of climatology in this century, namely helmut landsberg.” 62 landsberg’s reputation was not so much for his scientific accomplishments – which were many – but rather his ability to represent the kinds of values and behaviors that many of his colleagues believed were fundamental to being a professional scientist. as timothy oke remarked, "the undoubted eminence of landsberg stemmed not from his scientific research but from a special combination of intellectual and personal qualities." 63 one the most persistent qualities of landsberg was a robust sense of the importance of skepticism and caution. he believed that climate had become in many ways a convenient scapegoat for ill-conceived policies and sought ways to inform the public without exacerbating public confusion. as he noted in 1978 in regard to a variety of what many believed to be climate-induced socio-economic problems, these socio-economic impacts, as never before, brought climate into the focus of public attention. as a by-product of this interest a whole mythology of climate has 60 w.b. leach to landsberg, 5 september 1945, series 7, box 1, phl. 61 the environmental data service (eds) was responsible for archiving and disseminating geophysical observations to the general public, federal, state, and local agencies, the scientific and engineering communities, and private corporations. for a very brief overview of the eds, see patrick hughes, a century of weather service: a history of the birth and growth of the national weather service (new york: gordon & breach, 1970): pp. 157-58 62 joseph smagorinsky, “climatology's scientific maturity,” within climate in human perspective: a tribute to helmut e. landsberg (kluwer, 1991); carl christian wallen, interview 1995 by gordon cartwright, p. 29. 63 climate in human perspective (1991): p. 69. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 73 been spilled on the public: an ice age is overdue and will engulf us in the next few years; climate has become ‘more variable’ (than what) … the real problem is that population increases have placed greater demands on food supplies and the disarray of fuel supplies have made a cold winter a threat to large population groups. 64 of course, this was entirely aligned with the rhetorical paradigm argued by individuals like schneider and paul ehrlich – population was a serious problem insofar as it allowed economically marginal areas to feel the effects of even minor climatic variations more than a more temperate climate. in this respect, landsberg carried with him the same ideas that motivated others to engage the public with one distinctive difference – he did not deem it appropriate to engage the public about climate-related matters or about anything that may be perceived as departing from his station as a professional and reticent expert. indeed, the challenge of properly adjudicating the various causes of global energy and food shortages was something that landsberg took seriously, but he appeared frustrated at occasionally embittered by what he saw as a lack of credible science to assist in public understanding. he felt that specialists and non-specialists alike were making claims publicly and privately about the nature and potential severity of climate, but ultimately contributing to a general sense of anxiousness about the future instead of enlightening. “in recent years,” landsberg observed in 1972, much has been said and written about man’s interference with climate. alarming tales have been spread, many of them by persons whose standing as climatologists may well be questioned. and just as the competence of a cardiologist in neurosurgery may be doubted so may the judgment of atmospheric physicists or dynamicists in climatology. but the claims of omniscience in this field by some in other professions, even farther removed, such as biologists or even politicians are indeed astonishing and very misleading. 65 while he did not specifically address schneider, landsberg’s sentiments reveal a growing frustration with and perhaps resentment toward those whom he characterized as more outspoken, untrained scientists. public communication was important to him. he felt that only those with what he saw as a calm and moderate perspective of environmental threats mixed with the appropriate expertise could anchor appropriately what he saw as sensationalist rhetoric and contradictory messages being disseminated to the general public about climate change. after decades of witnessing the gradual professionalization of climatology from a backwater to one increasingly relevant to societal problems he believe it imperative that climate research maintain an air of credibility above the fray of public politics. given landsberg’s predilections, he saw schneider’s 1976 manifesto as particularly problematic for a variety of reasons. first, he challenged one of schneider’s fundamental assertions that justified his public engagement, namely that climate variability was increasing in the 1970s. 64 helmut landsberg, “recent climatic fluctuations and the outlook for the near future,” talk presented at the 1978 meeting of the aaas symposium on climate futures, series 3, box 8, phl. 65 helmut landsberg, “human influence on climate,” sartryck ur lakartidningen 69 (1972): pp. 2772-78. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 74 climate was not the problem, he reasoned, as much as the movement of people into areas that had traditionally been more susceptible to the vagaries of weather. “i have analyzed dozens of long records of all kinds of elements. there is no sign of a ‘recent’ increase in variability. it is a myth to me where people read this into the climatic record. what has happened is that our economic has (by poor planning) become continually more vulnerable to the normal climatic fluctuations,” he cautioned. 66 this criticism exposed one of most glaring inadequacies of public discussions about the role of climate in what many perceived to be the existence of societal frailties – one could not isolate scientifically the relative influence of poor planning, climate variability, lack of technological progress, or population growth on societal problems. indeed, the climate seemed to have a relatively inferior role when compared to these other causes, a point that even schneider himself understood as early as 1974: “in my view, the real crisis is not so much a climate crisis but a lack of world leadership capable of devising and agreeing on a world food security plan.” 67 the question from landsberg’s perspective, then, was why climate received so much public attention in the first place? as he once wrote, cause and effect relationships of climate are known in only a rudimentary way; hence predictions for either short or long intervals are afflicted with great uncertainties. shouldn’t this be persuasive enough to send at least the scientists back from the television cameras to their laboratories and studies in order to perfect their knowledge? 68 additionally, landsberg vehemently challenged the usefulness of present climate models to both science and to the development of policy. while he appreciated their potential usefulness over the long-term, he believed that schneider’s use of model-based estimates to guide policy development overlooked the fact that such uncertainties were not quantified and they did not adequately represent the real atmosphere. while schneider once again agreed with landsberg that models were riddled with uncertainties, the lack of a quantifiable estimate of those uncertainties made any public claim about the future more problematic than if nothing had been said at all. “i disagree with the opinion that uncertain predictions derived from clearly inadequate mathematicalnumerical models should be used for public (political) decisions,” landsberg noted. “nothing could erode the credibility of scientists faster than that. this does not mean one has to have absolute certainty, but one needs to give the decision makers a precise estimate of the uncertainty.” 69 to reinforce his case for reticence, landsberg referred to a quote by joseph smagorinsky, the modeler who first introduced to schneider in1970 the idea that the climate was a tractable scientific problem. as smagorinsky noted, 66 landsberg to james norwine, 10 february 1977, series 2.2, box 8, phl. 67 stephen schneider, “a new world climate norm?: implications for future world needs,” bulletin of the american academy of arts and sciences 28, 3 (december 1974): pp. 20-35, quote on p. 32 . 68 helmut landsberg, “whence global climate: hot or cold?” bulletin of the american meteorological society 57, 4 (april 1976): pp. 441-43. 69 helmut landsberg, “review of the genesis strategy,” eos: transactions of the american geophysical union 57 (september 1976): pp. 634-35. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 75 crude or premature estimates can be very misleading in providing guidance for such far-reaching decisions and may be far more damaging than no estimate at all. ... it does warn us, however, that if current physically comprehensive models are inadequate to answer some of our questions, then certainly we should be wary of basing broad national or international decisions on hand-waving arguments or backof-the-envelope calculations. 70 given schneider’s youth and inexperience, landsberg also objected on political grounds schneider’s apparent hubris when discussing his political and scientific views in public. this was yet another area where landsberg felt that schneider had erred; while it was one thing to speak about climate-related matters in public from a scientific perspective, it was quite another to engage the public about policy matters. appearing on television shows, in magazine articles, publishing popular works – these activities suggested that schneider was sacrificing the credibility of the scientific profession for the purpose of raising his own political profile. “one misses in the technical part of the treatise the dispassionate and critical attitude which has been such a distinguishing attribute of scientists,” landsberg noted. this was a crucial point. not only was scheider’s suggestions for a genesis strategy "a bit vague and unbelievably naive," landsberg argued that it was indicative of a deep ignorance of the international and domestic institutions that already existed to meet the needs of american society. landsberg mockingly suggested that if schneider was so interested in policy matters he should either 1) run for public office or 2) spend more time with the science and "spend less time going to the large number of meetings and workshops that he seems to frequent and also that he change his reading habits from newsprint – all through the simple expedient of reading scientific journals and otherwise being a regular devotee of a first class scientific library." 71 while landsberg perhaps exaggerated the point for effect, his underlying frustration was rooted in something quite simple: schneider was quite simply a member of a more youthful and ambitious generation of scientist unafraid to engage the public. 72 reticence and caution may have appealed to an older generation of experts who believed in the virtue of scientific deliberation devoid of public input, but schneider was a part of a rebellious generation who witnessed the role of experts in the vietnam war. landsberg, however, spent a career participating in the development of climatology as a professionalized discipline with strong ties to government and the military. he was skeptical of youth who believed that they had the answers and especially concerned that emotion and irrationality often drove popular discussions that appeared unanchored to established science. as he remarked years earlier, “it is very essential that we let the general public know what is 70 helmut landsberg, “comment on review of ‘the genesis strategy’,” eos 58, 3 (march 1977): p. 122. also, see joseph smagorinsky, weather and climate modification (john wiley and sons, 1974): pp. 673 85. 71 landsberg (september 1976): pp. 634-35. 72 rae goodell, the visible scientists (little, brown and co., 1977). henderson, the dilemma of reticence 76 scientifically really proved and what is wild speculation,” he argued. “it would be very unfortunate if major decisions were based on the latter type of emotion rather than factual background.” 73 if a generational gap did indeed exist, it is perhaps best exemplified not by landsberg's scathing appraisal of schneider's book but rather by more derisive comments by those of whom designed the first computers used for numerical weather prediction during the late 1940s and early 1950s. 74 three months after receiving a copy of genesis strategy, for instance, jule charney, an mit professor of mathematics, wrote to samuel day, jr., the editor of the bulletin of the atomic scientists. after reading schneider’s work per day’s request for a professional review, charney was unequivocal. agreeing with landsberg's assessment that schneider's book was a "lightweight affair,” he launched into what day referred to modestly as an "informal appraisal": the author (stephen schneider) is apparently both incapable and unwilling to distinguish between good science and bad speculation based on bad statistics. he is like the sun-spot-weather people who adduce no causal connections and are therefore forced to rely on statistics, bad statistics. to involve oneself in criticizing them is a career in itself and a thankless one. 75 while it is beyond the scope of this article to discuss in depth what he meant by "sun-spot-weather people," charney expressed particular concern that schneider was indulging in long and short-range climatic theory which he referred to as “at best pure speculation” given significant limitations of current models. but more than the deficiencies of models, charney interpreted schneider’s actions as a danger not only to scientists but also to the general public that frequently could not distinguish the political from scientific statements of scientists like schneider – in spite of efforts to demarcate his political judgments from his scientific claims. none of the "speculative ideas of people like … schneider on future climate change are worth the paper (usually newspaper) they are written on. they mislead the public and they do the field harm," charney concluded in a separate letter. 76 landsberg and charney’s reservations toward schneider’s work were not necessarily because they believed that models were not useful to the scientific profession, but rather because individuals like schneider appeared too willing to overlook what even he agreed were serious uncertainties for the sake of informing the general public and policy makers. models were not suitable for public viewing in any shape or form, let alone used in the backdrop for popular pieces meant to sway public passions toward a particular cause. they were not casting doubt on models as much as what schneider represented about this crucial period in the history of american science – a period when outspokenness was cherished as a valuable commodity for those who believed that scientists had an obligation to improve society. individuals like charney and landsberg were concerned that such 73 landsberg to h. panzram, 1971 november 24, series 2.1, box 2, phl. 74 paul edwards, a vast machine: computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming (cambridge: mit press, 2010). 75 july charney to samuel day, jr., 7 december 1976, box 3 – b, general correspondence, 1949-80, papers of jule charney, mit institute archives, cambridge, ma. (hereafter referred to as pjc). 76 jule charney to warren kornberg, 12 october 1976, box 13 – nsf, 1955-81, pjc. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 77 visible scientists were too eager to engage the public and may not have understood fully the risks that accompanied such actions. conclusion: virtue of a reticent tradition? as illustrated with the two quotes at the beginning of this article, landsberg and schneider knew that dealing with the potential risks of climate change required an appreciation or the role of subjective human value judgments when making decisions about the future of society. reticence was such a value judgment. they understood that humans were imperfect agents who must strive to make long-term decisions about human welfare, but were limited by the lack of foresight and knowledge that may alleviate the burdens that come with tough decisions. there was no crystal ball, no prophet, and no teachers who could guide how scientists should have behaved and acted in an irrational and rapidly changing world. neither schneider nor landsberg had a monopoly on whether reticence was more scientifically warranted or socially responsible. nonetheless, within the vacuum of uncertainty about the science of climate change and the political ambiguities available at the time, both appealed to what they understood about the role of scientist in american society to assess how they fashioned themselves as experts. on the one hand, schneider’s concern for the future effects of climate change on agricultural production during the 1970s was a response to what he perceived to be an unstable relationship between population growth, food and energy production, technological progress, and the global climate system. he was skeptical of what he saw as the status quo of political complacency, and valued a return to what he considered a science-based pragmatic approach to resolving human and environmental problems. he never asserted that he knew all of the answers, but he did rely on a set of assumptions about the interface between science and society. since his days at columbia university, he believed that scientists had a role in solving societal problems by becoming public figures. computer-based models gave him an opportunity to fulfill that potential. his optimism was consistent with his professional ideals and he sought to use every avenue open to him to give voice to what he and many others were saying about a world that appeared on the verge of collapse. on the other hand, landsberg, as a highly-esteemed climatologist interested in protecting what he considered an older tradition of climatology, believed that schneider’s advocacy for political action signaled a threat to reticence as a firmly-rooted tradition in climatology. from his experiences during world war ii to his position at the university of maryland in the 1970s, he believed that outspoken individuals like schneider represented a new kind of climate scientist. schneider’s eschewal of reticence struck landsberg as not only rooted in a misreading of climatological records but irresponsible in light of his own faith in current governmental structures to adapt to changing circumstances. relative to schneider, landsberg was quite simply a more stodgy kind of scientist; he was skeptical of what he considered to be a generation prone to emotion-laden exaggeration, dismissive of the confusing and contradictory messages promulgated to the general public about climate change, and frustrated especially with credentialed scientists like schneider who appeared to circumvent established traditions for the purpose of unifying politics, the public, and science. henderson, the dilemma of reticence 78 as this article highlights, the decision to go public during the 1970s was – and still is – a cultural and personal decision. the decision was cultural in the case of schneider and landsberg because they had to consider whether their actions violated existing norms within the scientific community. given what both agreed were tremendous uncertainties about the future state of climate during the 1970s, each had to decide whether the norm of reticence was justified or not. the decision was personal because it required that they evaluate and assess future risks according to their best interpretation of the available evidence. amidst wide-spread anxieties about future environmental degradation during the 1960s and 70s, no hard and fast rules existed to dictate scientists' behaviors when it came to public engagement. in light of serious scientific uncertainties about climatic change, schneider and landsberg marshaled evidence in support of what they considered to be reasonable arguments in favor of their respective visions – a practice that compelled them to negotiate their own personal values and beliefs with the norms and traditions of the atmospheric science community. so, what does this disagreement between two climatologists during the 1970s say about more contemporary debates about global warming? given what appears to be some concern that the atmospheric science community is too conservative and therefore risking the future of western civilization, this article suggests that reticence is not a simple matter of choosing simply to speak in public and risking one’s credibility. reticence provides an opportunity to understand cultural and historical patterns of thought that have shaped individual decision making over the last four decades, patterns that cannot – and should not – be ignored or overlooked. they should be explained. this article suggests a need to assess the difficulties of abandoning reticence, and to examine in further depth the fact that seemingly simple disputes about whether to engage society involve conflicting belief-systems about the role of climatologists in guiding an increasingly complex world. microsoft word 4._white, noaa copy.doc history of meteorology 3 (2006) 55 the making of noaa, 1963-2005 robert m. white rmw@theadvisorygroup.com an evening with robert m. white december 1, 2005 at the national air and space museum smithsonian institution washington, dc co-sponsored by the international commission on history of meteorology and the smithsonian national air and space museum edited transcription provided by the tape recorded interview project american meteorological society and university corporation for atmospheric research for links to the historical documents that created noaa and its predecessor agencies see http://www.history.noaa.gov/legacy/historical_documents.html making of noaa 56 introduction james r. fleming: it is my pleasure to introduce robert m. white, our speaker this evening. robert white is director of the washington advisory group, a team of experienced administrators who advise on environment, energy and climate change and the development and management of organizations and research programs. i realize that most everybody here in the room worked with bob at some point; perhaps even recently. bill hooke is working on bob's oral history. bob was president of the national academy of engineering from 1983 to 1995. previously he was president of the university corporation for atmospheric research. we call it ucar. he was chief of the weather bureau. he was u.s. commissioner to the international whaling commission. he was u.s. permanent representative to the world meteorological organization. and he was appointed the first administrator of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa). he served in scientific leadership positions under five u.s. presidents. dr. white recently was the karl t. compton lecturer at the massachusetts institute of technology. he is a senior fellow with ucar and at the h. john heinz iii center for science, economics, and the environment. he's received awards such as the vannevar bush award, the tyler prize for environmental achievement, the charles a. lindbergh award for technology and the environment, the rockefeller public service award, and the international meteorological organization prize. he holds honorary degrees from many universities. he's a member of the french legion of honor and the academies of engineering in japan, the uk and australia. dr. white is a graduate of the harvard geology department and has m.s. and doctorate degrees in meteorology from mit. robert white is known for his excellent decisions and wise counsel over more than five decades. for example, while sharing office space with ed lorenz at mit in the mid 1950s, he told ed that he really should have a computer in his office: the royal mcbee lgp-30. the discovery of the strange attractor of chaos theory, now popularly known as the butterfly effect, was the result. i visited ed last month at mit and he was still running simple chaotic models on his much faster office machine—wishing he could somehow slow it down or fool it to print out only every 10,000th data point so he could watch the attractors evolve. a second, less momentous but more personal example of dr. white’s judgment and advice—and i'm sure everyone here has his or her own examples—bob called my book, historical perspectives on climate change, “a wonderful book about the antecedents of the present climate debate” and recommended that it should be read by every meteorologist and used as a textbook in meteorology classes. this endorsement actually helped to convince the publisher to issue it in paperback. so i'd like to give bob the first paperback copy i just received (applause). if you give a speech here at air and space, perhaps you'll get a book, too. further evidence of dr. white’s central role in environmental issues is that during his tenure at noaa, he is credited with bringing about a revolution in the u.s. weather warning system through satellite observations and computer technology. i'm sure there are many other examples of his sage advice, judgment and influence that will be revealed in his talk tonight, which is titled, “the making of noaa, 1963-2005.” so let's welcome bob white (applause). history of meteorology 3 (2006) 57 the making of noaa, 1963-2005 robert m. white: thank you very much, jim. it's been a wonderful treat for me to meet all of my colleagues, old and new, some of whose names i have forgotten, but some of whose faces are unfamiliar to me today. but after i met them they all became familiar. and i'm delighted at the chance to be here among a group of old friends and old colleagues as well as others who thought they might want to spend a bit of time listening to me. i had a little bit of trouble deciding what to call this talk. i thought the best title for the talk was something i picked up after i selected this title. my afterthought came from the website of noaa. noaa called itself the whole earth institution. i think that is very appropriate. nevertheless we're stuck with “the making of noaa.” i'm going to discuss my understanding of how noaa came into being. but let me go back a bit in history since we're among a bunch of history buffs. we're actually looking at 200 years of meteorological history. in 1807 thomas jefferson founded the coast survey, the oldest scientific agency of the federal government, which became a central part of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa). in 1870 the u.s. weather bureau was formally founded after a series of storms on the great lakes with major consequences. in my reading i found that the period between 1807 and 1870 was not completely void of meteorological advancement. for example, captain fitzroy gained fame as the captain of the beagle, which sailed around the world in 1831-1836. on that voyage, charles darwin came up with ideas on evolution he later developed in the origin of species. later in life, fitzroy headed up what today is the british meteorological office and issued regular weather forecasts for both sea and land. (incidentally fitzroy committed suicide in 1865, two years after the publication of his weather book.) in 1814, surgeon general tilton issued a general order, directing all the surgeons in the u.s. army to take weather observations. and, in fact, if you want to think of the origins of the u.s. weather service, you might have to go back before 1814 to the first simultaneous meteorological observations taken by thomas jefferson and james madison in 1778. the united states commission of fish and fisheries was founded in 1871 under the leadership of spencer baird at the smithsonian institution. the commission conducted marine research and collected museum specimens along the coast of new england, settling on a permanent site at woods hole in 1885. the commission was formed with a $5,000 appropriation from the congress. $5,000 is not even loose change today in government funding. but in those days $5,000 was a substantial amount of money, at least enough to get it started. later it was renamed the bureau of fisheries, and still later it became the bureau of commercial fisheries. today its direct descendant is noaa's national marine fisheries service. in 1890, the national bureau of standards was formed. it was an outgrowth of the coast and geodetic survey. a piece of the national bureau of standards, the central radio propagation laboratory, ended up in noaa. this was the group concerned with conditions in the ionosphere. in 1965 an organization was formed called essa, the environmental science services administration -some of you may actually have been employed by essa -and in 1970 noaa was formed. that’s a history in very, very brief terms of how noaa came into being. but let's go back not 200 years, but just a half century. let's go back to the election of jack kennedy as president of the united states. he was elected in 1960 and was assassinated on november 22nd, 1963. his noteworthy contribution to meteorology came in 1961 when he made a speech before the united nations in which he called for cooperative efforts among the nations of the world in weather forecasting. he also called upon them to explore methods of making of noaa 58 weather modification. during the same period, in 1962 was the publication by rachel carson of her book silent spring. i don't know how many of you have read silent spring or are familiar with the book. but its publication was a landmark in the environmental movement because on its basis a lot of people began to think most seriously about the environment. in 1963 i was appointed director of the weather bureau. i was one of president kennedy's last appointees: i was appointed in october 1963 and he was assassinated in november, the next month. in that one speech before the united nations he had set a general course for meteorology in the decade to come. when i was appointed director of the weather bureau, we had to consider how to carry out the intent of the president. by the way, that's not my first exposure to meteorology, being made chief of the weather bureau. actually, my exposure to meteorology goes back to 1940, 65 years ago. in 1940 i was a student at harvard and charles f. brooks, one of the founders of the american meteorological society, was professor of geography there. he also had a house at the base of the great blue hill, which had the blue hill [meteorological] observatory on it, which has maintained one of the most comprehensive records we have of meteorology in the united states. dr. brooks asked whether i would become a weather observer, at the blue hill observatory. i said yes. and so for one summer i became a weather observer. i became familiar with nephanalysis, the analysis of the clouds. it was a very interesting experience for me. that was my true beginning in meteorology. what was the challenge for the weather bureau as i became chief? well, first of all, it was to replace francis reichelderfer who had been appointed by franklin delano roosevelt. he had studied in norway, brought the polar front theory to the united states, and insisted that it be used as a basis for weather forecasting. another task was to modernize the weather service as new technology became available. numerical weather prediction was in its infancy. actually, the joint numerical weather prediction (jnwp) unit was founded in 1955. that's about eight or nine years before i became chief of the weather bureau. that was one of the great challenges for the weather bureau: how to make more extensive use of numerical weather prediction techniques. another was how to improve the global weather [observing] system. we had for the first time weather satellites that could give true global observations. the first operational weather satellites, tiros 9 and the essa series, were launched in 1965. that was just two years after i took over the weather bureau. although experimental satellites with weather information had been launched before that, notably tiros i in 1960. the number of private meteorologists expanded greatly during this period of rapid technological development. today i know that a large percentage of the members of the american meteorological society now come out of the private sector. private meteorology has now become a very prominent element in the national and international meteorological and weather forecasting scene. the organization called the environmental science services administration, essa, was formed in 1965 just two years after i took charge of the weather bureau. it resulted from a very particular constellation of individuals. herbert holloman was the first assistant secretary for science and technology in the commerce department. he and i and admiral h. arnold karo, the director of the coast and geodetic survey, in collaboration decided that we had the elements of an environmental organization in the department of commerce. this was the first organization in the federal government that had the word “environment” in its title. no legislation was required to bring these agencies together, only an executive order with congressional approval. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 59 and so it was relatively simple to do. the new environmental science services administration encompassed the oceans, the atmosphere, and the ionosphere. the coast and geodetic survey, in addition to its major ocean mission, made land observations for its geodetic work. the atmosphere was the weather bureau and the ionosphere was the central radio propagation laboratories (crpl). collectively they could represent a comprehensive approach to the atmosphere and the oceans. the agencies also brought much technology together. they assembled all kinds of technology in one organization: ships, aircraft, satellites, radar, and rapidly modernizing communications. president kennedy had laid down an international challenge: collaborate with the nations of the world using technology to bring about significant improvement in the time range and accuracy of weather forecasts. experiment with weather modification. apply satellites to obtain global weather information. i remember being asked to go as a representative of the united states to the world meteorological organization to pledge $5 million to the advancement of global weather prediction, for the development and the use of satellites, and for purchase of the automatic picture transmission (apt) equipment, which enabled the receipt of data from satellite altitude. but there was more than that. the international collaboration resulted in the formation in 1963 of what was called at that time, and is still called, the world weather watch. the world weather watch was intended to bring and has brought about global observations and improved time range of weather forecasts. the research dimension of the world weather watch was the global atmospheric research program (garp), which was a collaboration between the international council of scientific unions (icsu) and the world meteorological organization. many innovative field experiments were undertaken under the aegis of the world weather watch and the global atmospheric research program. one was conducted in barbados and another from dakar, africa. they were investigating ocean/atmosphere interactions. they were very very successful field experiments with many countries participating. but let's move now to the road to noaa. it was a congressional initiative. senators warren magnusson and fritz hollings were deeply involved. in 1966 congress passed the marine resources and engineering development act to examine the development, utilization, and preservation of the marine environment. subsequently the stratton ocean commission was formed, chaired by dr. julius stratton. its formal name was the commission on marine sciences, engineering and resources, and it issued a report in 1969 titled our nation and the sea that set out a coordinated, comprehensive policy for the responsible use and stewardship of the nation's ocean and coastal resources. it was a landmark occasion and a landmark book. and it certainly affected our national policies on oceans and atmosphere. although the stratton commission was initiated under aegis of president johnson, its final report was made to president nixon. principal interests of this commission were in the oceans. it was an ocean commission. but it did recognize the growth of environmental concerns in the united states, largely as a result of some of us on the commission, like john knauss and myself. we were able to convince the members of the commission that really this was an opportunity to do something broader and involve not just the oceans but also the atmosphere and hydrology. the membership of the stratton commission was fascinating. julius stratton himself had been president of mit and had been president of the ford foundation. members of the stratton commission included a person like jacob blaustein, an elderly gentleman at the time and the founder of the american oil company, amoco. the commission also included leon jaworski, a lawyer from texas, of watergate fame. it included publicists like george reedy, who was making of noaa 60 president johnson's public information officer. there were many others on the commission, but those are just a few of the noteworthy names. as i indicated, it was authorized by the marine resources and engineering development act of june 1966. one of the things that impelled congress to try to do something was [the fact that] by that time 45% of the people of the united states lived in coastal areas. that percentage has grown since that time. the new york times recently published a statement saying that commissions are fine but rarely change the light bulbs. well, the stratton commission was different. it really had major effects. president nixon actually, for all of his shortcomings and all of the unfortunate things that have been said about him, was the person who institutionalized the environmental movement in united states government. his reorganization plans gave rise to noaa and the environmental protection agency (epa). the makeup of noaa was one of the issues that the stratton commission formulated. first of all, essa, which was in the department of commerce, was the largest element of the proposed organization. the bureau of commercial fisheries came out of the department of the interior. the national ocean data center, which was operated by the navy, came out of the navy. the great lakes survey came out of the corps of engineers. the sea grant program came from the national science foundation. in addition there was the marine mineral technology center of the department of the interior and the national data buoy center from the coast guard. several recommendations of the commission did not go through. first of all we recommended independent agency status. i still support an independent agency. in fact i recently made a presentation to the presidential commission on ocean policy chaired by admiral jim watkins urging them to declare an independent agency, but they didn't do that. the coast guard was recommended for inclusion among the groups that were to make up noaa. that was not approved. but something did happen. when noaa was formed, it had a budget of approximately $300 to 325 million. its budget this year is $3.9 billion. it's a remarkable transformation in the financial fortunes of noaa. that's a 12-fold increase. measured in constant dollars that is about a 2.4-fold increase. we had a lot of arguments about the placement of noaa. where should it go? as i said, i was an advocate of an independent agency. and most of the other members of the commission were convinced that it should be an independent agency. it didn't happen. among the departments, the department of the interior was favored because it was visualized as an environmental entity. it had many elements of environment in it, like the geological survey. walter hickel, the former governor of alaska, came to washington to be the secretary of the interior. apparently there was some kind of a falling out between president nixon and wally hickel. interestingly, the department of commerce was headed by maurice stans, who was then the secretary. he and nixon were very close. since essa was the largest element of the proposed noaa, the decision was finally to put it in the department of commerce. i was asked by the secretary, maurice stans, to head this new agency, noaa. he called me into his office one day and said, “bob, i want you to go out, get the best people you can. i don't care whether they're republicans or democrats, just get the right people for your organization. we were free to appoint whomever we wished to various posts. and there were many posts that needed filling. there was one exception. howard pollock was formerly the representative from alaska and had been defeated in his race for governor. stans said, “i would like you to do one thing for me though. bring howard pollock on as your deputy.” i did. and he was a remarkably successful guy in that post because he had connections on the hill. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 61 one interesting aside i might say is how i got the title administrator. secretary of commerce maurice stans called me into his office and said, “bob, you're at a level now where we can call you undersecretary or we can call you administrator.” i said i prefer administrator. and he said why? i said because it's less political. you had an administrator at nasa and you had heads of other independent agencies that were nonpolitical. i felt if you called me administrator, it would be much more nonpolitical than if you called me undersecretary. noaa was an environmentally-integrated agency. the weather satellites became more than weather satellites. they became environmental satellites. the weather data center became the environmental data centers. the ships we used not just for surveying and charting the coasts. they were used for meteorological purposes, as, for example, in some of these field experiments. sea grant developed a major advisory service of the oceans. and one of the things that noaa was asked to do was act as a steward for various aspects of the oceans and atmospheric environment. i should indicate that as an environmentally-integrated agency, we had the stratton commission's recommendations to fall back on. we appointed an associate administrator for marine resources and an associate administrator for environmental monitoring and prediction. these two associate administrators, overlooking all of these different elements of noaa, were able to bring about the coordination that was required. there was a lot of policy and politics involved in the formation of noaa. first in 1970, reorganization plan no. 4 brought us into being. 1972 saw the passage of the marine mammal protection act, the coastal zone management act, and the marine protection research and sanctuaries act. those three acts really set a new course for noaa. the marine mammal protection act was something i was deeply involved in. at the international whaling commission i pumped hard for cessation of pelagic whaling. and we were successful. actually in 1972 at the first un conference on the environment, in stockholm, i was at lunch with the secretary of the interior, rogers morton, at the ambassador’s residence.. secretary morton came up to me and said “bob, i have to stay here. could you go back to the conference and take over my chair?” i walked into the conference room. the chairperson said, “united states, you're up.” off the cuff i made a speech on the need to save the whales. all the participants started to applaud. it was fantastic. after that we went to the international whaling commission where we were successful in getting a cessation of pelagic whaling. i note that the pelagic whaling issue is once again in the headlines. the coastal zone management act also changed things in a radical way. for the first time, the united states government and the states were going to participate together to look over the coastal zone areas and see what could be done about conserving them. costal zone committees and commissions were established in the various states. money was provided by both the federal government and the states. it turned out to be a marvelous idea. they have been very successful in organizing the use of the coastal zones. other legislation had personal effects. one way to satisfy the requirement of the marine mammal protection act was the placement of observers on all u.s. tuna vessels. the tuna vessel captains didn't like that very much. they protested and struck en masse. next thing i knew, the governor of california, jerry brown, is in washington at the white house. he called for my resignation on the steps of the white house. it was very interesting to be the object of that fight. 1978 was the year of the first act by congress addressing climate. climate appears for the first time in major legislation. it has since become a central international environmental issue. but it's an issue that affects more than just the environment, it affects everything that we making of noaa 62 do. in 1979 i chaired the first world climate conference held by the wmo. it was the first international conference to project the consequences and the issues that needed attention. in the1970s dick hallgren became the director of the national weather service. and much happened. for example, noaa weather radio expanded to 300 stations. it was the largest single radio network in the country, which has since been converted to all hazards radio. the 1970s saw the rise of forecasting by computer. we had become dependent on numerical weather prediction, and the computer-generated weather forecast became a staple. observational technology was automated and acronyms followed. there was awips, which is “advanced weather interactive processing system.” we had afos, “automation of field operations and services,” and asos, “automated surface observing system.” all of these efforts were directed at automating the activities of the weather service. radars changed from the old wsr57 to the wsr74. warning stations were reduced in number from 278 to 114. this was an attempt to bring together competent individuals in a smaller number of locations to provide warnings of hazards. but it was not only the weather service that was undergoing changes. noaa's stewardship responsibilities for insuring our environmental future became prominent. the ocean sanctuaries act was passed in the 1970s. today there are 12 marine protected areas in the country with additional ocean sanctuaries being declared regularly. these areas are protected from fishing and other disruptive ocean activities. they are viewed as fish incubators. we introduced the fisheries management concept, pursuant to the magnuson fisheries management conservation act. regional councils were established with the responsibility for managing fisheries. we had state organizations overseeing the health of the coastal zones. and we began to take action about how one goes about addressing climate warming, an issue which by that time had become very serious. the global reach of noaa had become incredible. it was the designated u.s. representative to the world meteorological organization, intergovernmental oceanographic commission of unesco, and the international whaling commission, among other international organizations international programs proliferated. in addition to the world weather watch/global atmospheric research program, there was the international hydrologic decade in 1965 and the international decade of ocean exploration in 1970. earthwatch was formulated by the united nations environment programme. and the international decade for natural hazard reduction was launched. incidentally the planning for the un program was headed by the president of the u.s. national academy of sciences, frank press. what about noaa's future? i've talked about what's happened in the past. first of all, we've recently had two commissions look at ocean policy issues, the pew commission and the watkins ocean policy commission. these and other groups have generated ideas that range from establishing a global earth observation system of systems, geoss, to ocean and coastal stewardship efforts. proposals addressing fisheries management from an ecosystem point of view rather than species by species have been introduced. new climate observation and prediction systems have been proposed. hazardous weather has become a central issue for noaa. in fact noaa did a wonderfully successful job in warning of hurricane katrina, for example, and warning also of many of the tornadoes that occurred in the mid-section of the country. in ocean observations and prediction new technology is being introduced. and noaa is now positioned to advance united states in an environmentally sustainable manner. and that is the central problem of the 21st century. thank you very much. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 63 fig. 1. robert m. white in 1963 as chief of the u.s. weather bureau. making of noaa 64 microsoft word 5._book launch.doc history of meteorology 3 (2006) 65 book launch climate history: historical perspectives and the current debate woodrow wilson international center for scholars december 11, 2006 commentators james rodger fleming, colby college and wilson center roger d. launius, national air and space museum michael maccracken, the climate institute moderator kent hughes, wilson center link to the streaming video from the wilson center: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=events.event&event_id=209021 links to the books discussed: the callendar effect http://www.ametsoc.org/pubs/books/bookdesc.html#cldr is the untold story of the remarkable individual who established the carbon dioxide theory of climate change. guy stewart callendar discovered that global warming could be brought about by increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide due to human activities, primarily through burning fossil fuels. he did this in 1938! intimate universality http://www.shpusa.com/books/climate.html edited by fleming, vlad jankovic, and deborah r. coen, contains eight essays on weather and climate from the enlightenment to 2006. the atmosphere and humans interact on all scales, from lungs and laboratory flasks to the austrian alps and latin american airways; from an overly hot (or cold) day to the science and politics of climate change; from gusty winds to the general planetary circulation. microsoft word 2howkins_political_met.doc history of meteorology 4 (2008) 27 political meteorology: weather, climate and the contest for antarctic sovereignty, 1939-1959 adrian howkins department of history colorado state university fort collins, colorado, usa antarctica is the coldest continent in the world. it is the continent with the most ice, but the least precipitation. within the global atmospheric system antarctica functions as a massive heat sink, cooling the air and regulating global temperature. its deep ice sheets provide archives into the world’s climatic past, and they hold one of the keys to the world’s climatic future. however, as late as the middle of the twentieth century, none of this was known with any degree of certainty. various meteorological theories existed, many dating from the heroic era of antarctic exploration at the beginning of the twentieth century (fogg 1992). but these theories tended to rest on scant data and there were rarely enough observations to substantiate them. between 1939 and 1959, meteorologists from a number of different countries made significant advances in their understanding of the weather and climate of antarctica. from the second world war onwards, various countries made systematic attempts to observe and understand the continent’s weather and climate (rooy 1957; rubin 1966). these efforts culminated in the work of the international geophysical year (igy) of 1957-58 (lamb 1961). in particular, meteorologists sought to understand the ways in which antarctica’s weather influenced the surrounding oceans and continents. in asking this question, they debated whether a south polar front functioned in a similar fashion to the polar front in the northern hemisphere, first outlined by the bergen school of dynamic meteorology (friedman 1989). by the end of this period, many questions remained unanswered, and there was certainly no consensus. but, by 1959, sufficient data existed to resolve the basic questions of antarctic meteorology. these advances in antarctic meteorology took place concurrently with important developments in the political history of antarctica. between 1939 and 1959, great britain, argentina, and chile actively contested the sovereignty of the antarctic peninsula, directly to the south of south america. great britain named the region the falkland islands dependencies and claimed it as the part of its worldwide empire (beck 1986; dodds 2002). argentina and chile argued that the antarctic peninsula was a geological extension of south america and that britain’s claims overlapped with fundamental parts of their national territories (howkins 2006). howkins, political meteorology 28 as the antarctic dispute progressed it became increasingly caught up in cold war rivalries between east and west (moore 2004). the united states and the soviet union both maneuvered to exert their influence throughout the southern continent. this super-power rivalry climaxed during the igy of 1957-58, ostensibly a worldwide endeavor of scientific co-operation. rather than leading to an extension of the cold war, however, the igy offered an opportunity to resolve, at least partially, the vexed question of sovereignty. in 1959, the twelve countries that participated in igy antarctic research signed the antarctic treaty. this treaty created a limited international regime for antarctica, brought an end to the active phase of the anglo-argentinechilean sovereignty dispute, and relaxed political tensions throughout the continent. this paper presents a “political meteorology” that examines the dynamic interaction between politics and meteorology. it does not attempt thoroughly to delineate the competing meteorological and climatic models that developed during the 1940s and 1950s. rather, it seeks to understand the ways in which the politics of the antarctic sovereignty dispute and the cold war shaped the development of antarctic meteorology, and how meteorological developments influenced the course of the sovereignty dispute. between 1939 and 1959, antarctic meteorology and antarctic politics were “co-produced,” meaning that the science of meteorology helped to shape the political context within which it developed (jasanoff 2004). as environmental historians have pointed out, it is one thing to assert vague connections between the environment, science, and politics; it is another thing to demonstrate how these connections actually functioned (white 1990). through an examination of these interconnections, this paper presents antarctica as an ideal location for such an endeavor, due to the relative simplicity of its human-nature interactions. this paper argues that political tensions in antarctica acted as a powerful catalyst to the development of antarctic meteorology. the antarctic sovereignty dispute stimulated the construction of bases and the conduct of scientific research throughout the antarctic peninsula region. this research in turn supplied the data needed to test and validate climatic and meteorological theories. during the 1950s, the escalating rivalry between the usa and the soviet union further stimulated meteorological research, in particular by opening up the interior of the continent. on a broad scale, the argument that political conflict stimulates scientific research is nothing new. but such an assertion runs counter to the dominant paradigm of antarctic historiography: namely, that peace and co-operation have been the principle stimulus to scientific advance (berkman 2002). this argument therefore functions as a corrective to an over-idealized and teleological reading of antarctic history that equates science with international co-operation. a central feature of the political disputes in antarctica was a contest over scientific authority. great britain’s sovereignty claims to the falkland islands dependencies rested on assertions of scientific legitimacy. the british empire had first laid a formal claim to the antarctic peninsula region in 1908, in an effort to tax the nascent antarctic whaling industry (his majesty’s stationary office 1920). in justifying their claim british officials argued that their motives were “purely unselfish”: the only true wealth that this area contains, so far as we know today, is still as in the past its marine wealth – its whales and seals; these, as we have noted earlier, could readily be exterminated by indiscriminate killing and it was the recognition of this danger which decided his majesty’s government to bring there industries under control and lead to the establishment of british sovereignty over the area now known as the falkland islands dependencies. the motive was a purely history of meteorology 4 (2008) 29 unselfish one, to conserve the harvest of these seas for the benefit of mankind as a whole. (clifford 1948a) the british asserted that only they had the scientific and technical capabilities to regulate the antarctic whaling industry in a sustainable fashion. this recourse to scientific authority mirrored a similar strategy throughout the colonial empire (drayton 2000; grove 1996; godlewska and smith 1994; anker 2001). as argentina and chile began actively to put forward their own claims to antarctic sovereignty on the eve of the second world war, they sought to challenge britain’s assertions of scientific superiority. whereas chile continued to rely more heavily on non-scientific representations of the antarctic environment, argentina appropriated the rhetoric of imperial science – what j.m. blaut has called the “colonizer’s model of the world” – in order to strengthen its case for antarctic sovereignty (blaut 1993; howkins forthcoming). a similar contest over scientific authority took place in the rivalry between the united states and the soviet union. scientists on all sides were generally willing to play their part in these political rivalries, realizing that this was a good way to win support for their scientific labors. fig. 1: sketch map to show sovereignty claims in antarctic peninsula region. between 1939 and 1959, antarctic science was much more than a rhetorical strategy. as well as producing useful knowledge for its own sake, this paper argues that the results of scientific research – including meteorology – shaped the political history of antarctica. the performance of antarctic science brought with it very real practical advantages. correct weather howkins, political meteorology 30 forecasts, for example, could help to prevent ships becoming stuck in the sea ice, and made flying safer. weather forecasting also brought economic benefits to the whaling industry since it maximized the time whalers spent at sea. in the competitive political environment of the 1940s and 1950s, scientific advances by one country tended to stimulate further development by their rivals, since all sides feared both the symbolic and the practical consequences of being left behind. occasionally, scientific results challenged previous assertions of scientific authority: the meteorological connections between south america and antarctica, for example, turned out to be more complicated than first imagined. ultimately, as scientists learned more about antarctica, political perceptions began to change. where previously the continent had been viewed as a frozen el dorado, potentially brimming with economic possibilities, the scientific work of the late 1950s suggested that there was little or nothing of short-to-medium term economic value in the continent. this dawning scientific realization, accompanied by the impending collapse of the whaling industry, laid an important foundation for the negotiation of the antarctica treaty in 1959. the paper will be divided into three sections. the first section will examine the sovereignty claims that chile and argentina put forward to the antarctic peninsula during the second world war, and look at how antarctic meteorology directly and indirectly influenced these claims. the second section will look at the british response to the south american challenge. it will show how political rivalry stimulated meteorological research in antarctica. the final section will examine the cold war rivalry between the united states and the soviet union and summarize the meteorological research done as part of the igy, as antarctic science increasingly became the currency of antarctic politics. chile and argentina during the second world war, both chile and argentina put forward claims to the antarctic peninsula that overlapped with the territory claimed by britain as the falkland islands dependencies. these claims were advanced for a number of reasons. most important were nationalist pressures and mutual rivalry (howkins 2006). also important was the shared belief that the antarctic peninsula would prove to be economically valuable and strategically useful (pinochet de la barra 1948). this belief in antarctica as a frozen el dorado was based largely on speculation and fantasy. south american authors repeatedly quoted admiral byrd’s report to congress that he had discovered 147 different types of minerals in antarctica including gold, iron, copper, magnesium, zinc, and petroleum (pinochet de la barra 1948: 164). they speculated that the region would be amenable to settlement, and argued that military bases in the peninsula region would hold the strategic key to the drake passage should the panama canal ever be destroyed in a future war. among the fantasies was the idea that the climate of antarctica was more benign, or at least could become more benign, than it actually was. in december 1940, a month after the chilean government had delimited its claim to the antarctic peninsula, juan bardina, a chilean journalist, wrote an article that enthusiastically discussed the prospects for a warming climate in antarctica: there was a time when the antarctic ice did not exist, and great forests covered the continent with corpulent trees. it is possible that, with the centuries, this polar spring could return. and maybe the great grandchildren of our great grandchildren will be able to drink tea comfortably under giant palms, in order to discretely escape the polar heat. (pinochet de la barra 1948: 166). history of meteorology 4 (2008) 31 while such a claim may look uncomfortably realistic today, at the time it was based more on speculation than observation. although bardina was correct to say that evidence of previous vegetation had been found, he offered no explanation for the possibility of a warming antarctic continent (fogg 1992). having advanced their claims to the antarctic peninsula during the second world war, the governments of argentina and chile set about justifying them. in doing this they turned variously to history (claims made by the spanish empire as early as 1493), international law (the sector theory used in the arctic), geology (the belief that the antarctic peninsula was a geological continuation of the andes mountains), paleontology (similar fossils were found in patagonia and the antarctic peninsula), and geography (the simple fact of nearness). officials on both sides of the andes also turned to the science of meteorology. shared weather systems, they proposed, helped to demonstrate the geographical proximity of antarctica to south america and this, in turn, demonstrated their legal rights to sovereignty. captain enrique cordovez, a retired naval officer and a member of the chilean antarctic commission, even went as far as identifying similarities between the snow in patagonia and the antarctic peninsula, arguing that this further demonstrated chile’s “natural rights” to antarctic sovereignty (juliet 1947). the fact that both argentina and chile used similar arguments – including shared weather and climate – encouraged the two countries to forge an uneasy alliance against the british around the concept of a “south american antarctica” (genest 2001). argentina did, however, have one trump card over its south american neighbor, and also over britain. since 1904, the argentine government had maintained a meteorological station on the south orkney islands 400 miles to the north east of the antarctic peninsula (moneta 1940). this station had been handed over to argentina by the scottish national expedition of william bruce (speak 2003). the argentine government had accepted responsibility for the base believing that it would help to explain connections between antarctica’s weather and that of patagonia. for forty years, base orcadas, as the observatory became know, was the most southerly place in the world to be permanently occupied. the station not only gave argentina a good claim to fulfilling the legal requirement of effective occupation, but it also produced the longest continuous series of meteorological observations from the antarctic region (fogg 1992). during the second international polar year of 1932-33, argentine observations from the south orkneys were the only contribution from the south pole region (fogg 1992). however, despite the good work of the argentine base at laurie island, there was only so much that one base could do, away from the continent and almost entirely in isolation. as late as the early 1940s, there was still no comprehensive understanding of exactly how antarctica’s weather systems functioned. consequently, there was only a vague notion of how the weather over antarctica influenced the weather of the surrounding oceans and continents. one enduring meteorological problem was that of high pressure over the antarctic plateau (hobbs 1926). pressure fell as sailors approached the antarctic ocean, but it appeared to begin to rise again south of 60°s. this, however, left the question of precipitation. a tremendous loss of ice could be seen through calving by anybody venturing to the periphery of the continent. but in a constant high pressure system over the interior, meteorologists questioned how enough precipitation could be generated to replace this lost ice. it appeared as if antarctica was “too cold for snow.” in 1951, a. court summed up the existing state of the debate surrounding the antarctic anti-cyclone in the american meteorological society’s compendium of meteorology: howkins, political meteorology 32 [it] exists only around the edges according to meinardus and shaw, is a thin layer according to simpson, barkow, kidson and grimminger, is broken up into several cells according to land and the navy aerologists (operation highjump), shrinks markedly from winter to summer according to serra and ratisvonna, coyle and gentilli, and is a major feature fed by an upper cyclone according to hobbs, with palmer considering the upper cyclone to be an abstraction derived from averages of widely varying conditions (quoted in fogg 1992: 301). a second persistent problem, dating from the observations made by george clarke simpson, the meteorologist on scott’s second expedition, was the occurrence of regular pressure waves without any apparent change in wind direction (fogg 1992). every 150 hours a pressure wave traveling at 40 mph would pass over a given point on the continent’s exterior, but this would be unaccompanied by the expected change in wind direction. meteorologists were increasing using the bergen school’s synoptic meteorology to ask questions such as whether or not there was a continuous polar front in antarctica and what caused the origin of antarctic cyclones. simpson’s theories about the occurrence of pressure waves added an extra layer of complexity to this problem. going into the period 1939-1959, these and other meteorological problems remained unresolved. great britain towards the end of the second world war, britain responded to the south american challenge to its sovereignty in the falkland islands dependencies by sending an expedition of permanent occupation to the region (dodds 2002). known as operation tabarin, the principal objective of this expedition was to fulfill the legal requirement of “effective occupation” needed to demonstrate sovereignty if ever the case should be taken to an international tribunal. at the same time, permanent occupation of the antarctic continent offered a tremendous opportunity for meteorologists. lack of a continuous series of weather observations was the major obstacle in the way of an improved understanding of the antarctic climate. when the british government were looking for people with experience in antarctica to advise on and participate in the expedition they turned to scientists such as j.m. wordie and n.a. mackintosh (smith 2004). despite the on-going war, these scientists saw operation tabarin as a way of continuing their scientific investigations in the antarctic, and hence furthering their professional ambitions. the participation of scientists in this program of permanent occupation maintained and extended the connections between antarctic science and politics. operation tabarin led directly to the establishment of four british bases on and around the antarctic peninsula. in the years after the end of the second world war, argentina and chile responded to operation tabarin by establishing their own bases in the region (genest 2001). this began a “race for bases” that also included the united states – although north american interests in antarctica were not restricted to the antarctic peninsula (klotz 1990). between 1944 and 1959, these four competing countries established over 20 bases in or around the antarctic peninsula, where before there had been only the argentine base orcadas 400 miles away. almost all of these bases conducted meteorological observations. basic meteorological readings were relatively easy to take, and gave expeditions a veneer of scientific legitimacy. although the quality of the observations varied tremendously, this network of rival bases provided a series of continuous data that could be used to test and develop the existing theories history of meteorology 4 (2008) 33 of antarctic weather. in this way, the bases that had been established as a result of the sovereignty dispute began to overcome the greatest problem hampering the development of antarctica meteorology: the lack of continuous observations. on the british side, responsibility for the government of the antarctic peninsula region fell to sir miles clifford, the governor of the falkland islands. having spent most of his career as a district officer in africa, sir miles was something of an old-school british imperialist. he had no patience with argentine and chilean claims to the falkland islands dependencies, and at one stage suggested that ice-cold water should be sprayed onto the crews of foreign ships illegally entering british waters (clifford 1948b). his annual “administrative” visits to the dependencies represented the highlights of an otherwise rather dull posting. over the course of these visits to antarctica, sir miles developed a definite idea about how the region should be governed: antarctic empire, he believed, should pay for itself. following the end of the second world war, operation tabarin had been replaced by the civilian falkland islands dependencies survey. the primary objective was to occupy the region and fly the british flag, but an important secondary objective was to conduct scientific research. money for the dependency survey came mostly from taxation of the land-based whaling companies in south georgia. experienced in the economic quid pro quo of british imperialism, sir miles felt that since whalers were paying for the scientific work, they should get some of the benefits. he therefore resolved to create a network of meteorological stations that would provide accurate weather forecasts to the whaling fleet. such a policy revealed a clear understanding of the economic and strategic benefits of weather forecasting. in much the same way that vilhelm bjerknes had earlier won support for his research by appealing to the norwegian fishing community, and other members of the bergen school had appealed to the aviation industry, clifford sought to placate the antarctic whalers – many of whom were norwegian – by providing them with useful information (friedman 1989; cushman 2006). whalers, he hoped, would cease to complain about paying british taxes, and would support british sovereignty in the falkland islands dependencies against the claims of argentina and chile. in a meeting with gordon howkins, the head of the falkland islands meteorological service, brian roberts, an antarctic specialist in the foreign office research department explicitly spelled out the political implications of antarctic meteorology: it is the wish of hmg to emphasize that the occupation of the fid should be such as to afford evidence of the exercise of sovereignty and that the programme of research and exploration should keep this in view. an active programme of research, which can be justified on scientific grounds alone, is an essential part of the preparation of a case which can be used if necessary to demonstrate to foreign governments of to a tribunal that hmg is taking all reasonable steps to develop and exercise sovereignty over the area, and is not merely attempting to prevent foreign encroachments. there is no doubt that both the chilean and argentine governments would like to set up meteorological stations in the dependenices for political reasons. it is essential therefore that while we have to exclude them from doing so we must take every possible step to ensure that we do not lay ourselves open to the same charge. whilst fids was political in origin, it is important to maintain it as far as possible as a normal administrative activity in which motives of research, exploration and development predominate (roberts 1946 – original emphasis). howkins, political meteorology 34 these comments clearly had disparaging implications about the kind of “science” being done by the argentines and chileans. as both roberts and clifford would note, problems arose for the british when bases sited for political purposes had little or no meteorological value. one of the major practical problems facing sir miles clifford and gordon howkins was that of the overriding influence of local conditions. as early as 1926, hobbs had warned about the problem of assuming that observed wind direction would be prevalent over extensive regions (hobbs 1926). in antarctica, with its powerful katabatic winds, local weather conditions could over-ride large scale ones. the meteorological observations made at stations such as port lockroy, for example, had little use for understanding wider patterns. bases located primarily for political or practical purposes, such as ease of access, did not always produce the best results. nevertheless, by the early 1950s, the governor of the falkland islands had established a functioning network of meteorological observatories (mansfield 1957). the establishment of this service involved the takeover of a meteorological station owned by the argentine pesca whaling company at grytviken in south georgia on 1 january 1950 (falkland islands and dependencies meteorological service 1950). it also involved the temporary closure of some bases, such as port lockroy, which had little or no perceived meteorological value. by the antarctic season 1951-1952, five british bases in the falkland islands dependencies submitted weather reports to stanley, where meteorologists constructed synoptic charts. forecasts were then broadcast from port stanley and south georgia up to three times a day at the peak of the whaling season. these reports were translated into norwegian for the benefit of the crews of the factory ships and catchers. a major handicap to the forecasting service was the refusal of whaling ships themselves to submit weather reports for fear of giving away their position to rival companies. an attempt to encrypt these reports met with little success. nevertheless, according to a british report, the whaling companies “expressed satisfaction with the improved services now provided” (falkland islands and dependencies meteorological service 1951). weather forecasting also assisted british operations in the falkland islands dependencies. in early 1950 season, for example, weather forecasts assisted with the evacuation of marguerite bay, and in the 1953-54 season “a number of forecasts were supplied to hope bay and proved useful in planning sledging operations and other work” (falkland islands and dependencies meteorological service 1954). in this way, weather forecasts gave practical advantages to british attempts to assert their sovereignty in the falkland islands dependencies. observations from the more than twenty meteorological stations established by britain, argentina, and chile in the antarctic peninsula as a direct result of the sovereignty dispute represented an important step forward in the history of antarctic meteorology. the meteorological work of the falkland islands dependencies survey, for example, was summarized in a book by the british meteorologist j. pepper (pepper 1954). this focused on the weather and climate of the peninsula region, demonstrating, for example how the temperature varied greatly from the cold east to relatively warm west. new theories were advanced about the weather and climate of the antarctic continent more generally. in 1949 h.c. willett suggested that the circumpolar cyclonic vortex repressed the transfer of heat and kinetic energy, separating antarctica’s atmosphere from the rest of the world (fogg 1992). this latter theory posed an indirect challenge to the argentine and chilean idea of meteorological connectedness. nevertheless, large gaps remained in the meteorological understanding of antarctica. these were caused by an imprecise knowledge of the interior of the continent. all of the major british, chilean, and argentine bases were located on the shoreline of the peninsula. the high interior plateau stretching across east antarctica remained virtually unknown. not until the igy of history of meteorology 4 (2008) 35 1957-1958 would political rivalries of a different sort mean that efforts were made to occupy the interior of the continent. international geophysical year it is tempting to think of the international geophysical year (igy) of 1957-58 as some kind of deus ex machina, emerging independently and then resolving the political problems of antarctica with a surge of idealistic scientific internationalism. the political context of the igy has been discussed elsewhere (sullivan 1961; needell 2000). it is sufficient here to note that, almost from its very beginning, the igy was infused with the political tensions of the 1950s, including the politics of the sovereignty dispute between britain, argentina, and chile, and, more broadly, the rivalries of the cold war. many of the meteorological advances in antarctica in the period 1939-1959 did indeed occur as a direct result of the igy of 1957-58. but the igy was not a dramatic break from the territorial rivalries of the recent past, but rather a continuation of these tensions under the umbrella of international co-operation. in this way, the meteorological work of the igy can be connected to the previous fifteen years of antarctic history and the moves to occupy the continent. the igy represented an acceleration of a process that was already underway: namely the building of bases for essentially political purposes that would also have important scientific benefits. in terms of meteorology, one of the most important innovations of the igy was the establishment of observing stations in the interior of the antarctic plateau (fogg 1992). this was as much a political move as a scientific one. by the mid-1950s, there was fierce competition between the united states and the soviet union for predominance in the southern continent. before the first igy antarctic planning meeting in paris in july 1955, the united states had made clear its intentions to build a station on the south pole (pinochet 1994). given the sector nature of antarctic sovereignty claims, with all pie pieces converging at the south pole, nothing could be better calculated to assert the united states’ reserved claims over the entire continent. such reasoning had not escaped soviet politicians, who also reserved their rights to sovereignty over the whole of antarctica. after arriving late at the paris meeting, the soviet delegation immediately declared its intention to build a base at the south pole. according to reports of the assembled delegates, this declaration caused a stunned silence throughout the room (pinochet 1994). thinking on his feet, the soviet delegate came up with the idea of build a base at the pole of relative inaccessibility, the place in antarctica furthest from any shoreline. as well as being a bold political gesture, this base would also have extremely useful meteorological potential, located at the geographical center of the continent. another important innovation of the igy, was a strategy of taking coordinated meteorological readings, especially by radiosonde, from across the antarctic continent (commonwealth of australia 1959). these were then reported to weather central at the american base little america v. sixteen stations used weather balloons tracked by radar, these gave coordinated readings on the designated “world days.” on their return from igy research in antarctica, meteorologists met for a symposium on antarctic meteorology in melbourne, australia. here they discussed the initial findings of their research. igy research on the central plateau of antarctic revealed that the annual temperature patterns were very different from any other place on earth. the continent had a “coreless” winter in which temperatures were not as low as expected and stayed roughly the same for around 6 months. research also disproved simpson’s conviction that depressions were not the cause of pressure variations. the igy howkins, political meteorology 36 established the basic outline of antarctic weather that we have today: a succession of cyclones around 60°s which rarely penetrate into the high central plateau, with nearly stationary continental anticyclones over marie byrd land and the pole of inaccessibility. katabatic winds were found to generally over-ride the cyclonic circulation. it became possible to make tentative quantitative estimates of meridional mass transport. as expected, records for low temperatures were broken, and the coldest temperature ever measured (-87.4°c) was recorded at russia’s vostok base at the southern geomagnetic pole in july 1958 (fogg 1992). in summing up the meteorological achievements of the igy, w.j. gibbs wrote in the australian meteorological magazine: “the antarctic is no longer a large blank region on meteorolgoical charts – now it is the oceans of the southern hemisphere which are the last remaining areas from which meteorological data are lacking” (gibbs 1959). despite their preliminary nature, the initial scientific results of the igy (including, but not limited to, the meteorological results) had an immediate impact on the politics of antarctica. both britain and the united states had gone into the igy treating it as something of an economic survey. a british government internal report entitled future constitutional development of the colonies, for example, noted “[british withdrawal] might also involve the loss of strategic minerals, but this will be easier to evaluate when the results have been assessed of the work done during the international geophysical year” (cabinet office 1957). they wanted to know whether the dreams of antarctica as a frozen el dorado could be realized. if mineral resources were to be found, then antarctica would be worth the numerous difficulties involved in asserting sovereignty claims; if there was no economic gain to be made, then it would probably not be worth the trouble. the initial findings of the igy were unequivocal: no mineral wealth of any immediate economic potential was found. on the contrary, the various igy scientific investigations suggested that even if such minerals had been found, the depth of the ice and the hostility of the climate would make them un-exploitable. the realization that there were no exploitable resources in antarctica accompanied the beginning of the total collapse of the whaling industry – the continent’s only economically profitable enterprise (tønnessen 1982). throughout the 1950s, massive over-capacity in the whaling fleet led to the decimation of the antarctic whale population. by the end of the decade, the industry was in a self-induced crisis from which it would not survive. from the perspective of the anglo-argentine-chilean sovereignty dispute, the decline of the whaling industry removed britain’s original reason for claiming and administering the falkland islands dependencies. the british treasury started to question the economic rationale for maintaining exclusive british sovereignty in the region, especially given the economic and political costs of competing with argentina and chile. as a consequence of the failure to discover minerals, the collapse of the whaling industry, and a broader awareness of the hostility of the antarctic climate, officials and politicians in great britain sought ways to diffuse the sovereignty dispute and internationalize the continent. in close alliance with the united states and its commonwealth partners, the british used the scientific goodwill generated by the igy, together with widespread fears of soviet intentions in antarctica, to push for limited internationalization of the continent. in a series of secret meetings held in washington in late 1957 and early 1958, representatives from great britain, the united states, australia, and new zealand thrashed out their plans for an internationalization of the continent (howkins forthcoming). following a series of preliminary negotiations among the twelve nations that participated in igy antarctic research – including argentina and chile – an antarctic conference was held in washington d.c. between october and december 1959. this history of meteorology 4 (2008) 37 conference led to the signature of the antarctic treaty, which effectively brought an end to the active phase of the anglo-argentine-chilean dispute by suspending all sovereignty claims to the continent. the antarctic treaty created a “continent for science,” and the british and north americans achieved the political outcome they had come to desire. conclusion going into the period 1939-1959, the biggest problem facing antarctic meteorology was a lack of data. the necessary meteorological stations simply did not exist and speculation exceeded observation. over the course of this twenty-year period, scientific bases were built throughout the antarctic peninsula region and across the antarctic continent. the vast majority of these bases engaged in meteorological observation, and they began to supply the data needed to test and validate the various existing theories. the demand for meteorological data, however, was not the driving force of this expansion. the competing nations built bases primarily for political purposes: to demonstrate effective occupation of the disputed territory. they conducted scientific research in an effort to legitimize their presence in the continent. scientific data was, in many ways, a by-product of this political rivalry. meteorological theories could be developed not despite international rivalry, but because of these tensions. that, however, is only one side of the story. science in general and meteorology in particular influenced the political history of antarctica. alongside the practical advantages gained through the conduct of meteorological research, developing scientific understanding helped to shape political attitudes towards the continent. at the beginning of this period a lack of scientific understanding permitted all sides involved in the dispute to indulge dreams of antarctica as a frozen el dorado. by the end of the period, enough was known about the reality of the antarctic environment to undermine these fantasies. when faced with the reality of the antarctic climate, the idea that the southern continent could become habitable within a generation or two – a belief that had helped to stimulate interest in antarctic sovereignty in the first place – began to look ridiculous. in this way, scientific developments helped to lay the foundations for the signature of the antarctic treaty in 1959. the antarctic treaty of 1959 signaled both change and continuity in the history of the southern continent. on the one hand, the treaty represented a break from the recent past as cooperation came to replace rivalry as the default attitude. as this paper has suggested, this occurred, at least in part, because science had revealed that there was little worth fighting over. today, antarctica is held up as a model for political and scientific co-operation, and there is much to applaud about the treaty that continues to govern antarctica (berkman 2002). on the other hand, there are many similarities between the pre and post treaty periods, especially in the way that science continues to be used to justify and legitimize political influence in the continent. it is significant that the original 12 members of the antarctic treaty system were the countries that conducted scientific research in antarctica during the igy. countries that are too poor to conduct scientific research in antarctica continue to be excluded from the continent’s political decision making. an examination of antarctica’s “political meteorology” in the period 19391959 demonstrates the complex interaction of science and politics. this in turn guards against an over-idealized reading of antarctic history. political rivalry could be as significant a stimulus to antarctic science as political co-operation; actual scientific results could shape the political history of antarctica every bit as much as the “goodwill” generated by scientific co-operation. howkins, political meteorology 38 acknowledgments i would like to thank the anonymous reviewer of this article for her/his very useful comments. i would also like to acknowledge generous financial support from the american meteorological society through the 2006-2007 graduate fellowship in the history of science. history of meteorology 4 (2008) 39 references anker, p. 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(1990) “environmental history, ecology, and meaning” in journal of american history (76:4). corresponding author(s) qian chen, shandong university of traditional chinese medicine, 60200028@sdutcm.edu.cn william doberck and the chinese maritime customs meteorological standards germination qian chen introduction in the nineteenth century, the establishment of large-scale meteorological observation networks globally became a trend, and people hoped to discover regularities in weather patterns through the statistical analysis of meteorological records. the major western countries drew upon the existing military, astronomical, and amateur observation resources to establish corresponding meteorological observation networks. in this process, the calibration of meteorological instruments and the standardization of meteorological observations play a crucial role. to facilitate the use of data for weather mapping, meteorological instruments must be calibrated to ensure that data is collected and recorded in consistent units. the aim of standard meteorological observation norms is to minimize errors in weather recordings that may arise from human factors or force majeure events. however, in practice, implementing these norms, particularly within domestic contexts where difficulties may arise, is challenging. the implementation of international standards is even more complex. consequently, the development of international standards for meteorological observations has emerged as a significant challenge that major western countries are actively seeking to address.1 it was only during the meteorological conferences held in leipzig and vienna in the latter half of the nineteenth century that a significant impetus was provided for the establishment of a unified meteorological culture across european countries. these conferences sparked extensive discussions on various aspects, including the types of instruments to be used, the scale of observations, the timing of observations, and methodologies for conducting observations.2 1 roskam c, “constructing climate: the hong kong observatory and imperial britain’s meteorological networks, 1842–1912,” the journal of architecture 26, no. 8 (2021): 1241-70. 2 naylor s, “weather instruments all at sea: meteorology and the royal navy in the nineteenth century,” geography, technology and instruments of exploration, (2015): 77-96. mailto:60200028@sdutcm.edu.cn history of meteorology 12 (2025) 2 in november 1869, robert hart, the inspectorate general of chinese maritime customs, proposed the establishment of meteorological stations at customs. through continuous enhancements and upgrades, the customs meteorological work not only formed the initial meteorological observation network in modern china but also emerged as a pivotal meteorological observation network in east asia. this network laid a critical data foundation for the development of typhoon warnings, weather mapping, weather forecasting, and other operational activities of observatories across east asia. however, during the customs’ initial meteorological endeavours, the number and types of meteorological instruments varied considerably among stations, and some customs locations were even devoid of essential meteorological instruments—a situation that persisted until the 1880s. hart, the inspectorate general of customs, fostered meteorological cooperation with the xujiahui observatory and the hong kong observatory, resulting in expert guidance for customs meteorological work. notably, during this period when two observatories maintained collaborative relationships, the chinese maritime customs demonstrated predominant partnership with the xujiahui observatory. academic studies have rigorously traced the evolution of meteorological cooperation between these institutions, producing seminal works on their interdisciplinary collaboration.3 despite the publication of instructions in the use of meteorological instruments (1880) – a 77-page technical manual authored by marcus dechevrens, director of the xujiahui observatory, and printed by the zi-ka-wei catholic missions press – this seminal work failed to gain traction among chinese maritime customs officials. while existing studies acknowledge customs’ assistance in publishing the director’s meteorological observations in the hong kong observatory, they have largely overlooked the intricate details of their interactions and the significance of this meteorological observation publication. by integrating information from customs archives and historical press, this study explores the practical applications of the meteorological observation instruction by hong kong observatory. customs early meteorological work as meteorology emerged as a rapidly developing discipline in the second half of the 19th century, meteorological observation guidance and the expertise of meteorological professionals became integral components of the operational meteorological observation network. this was also evident in the establishment and preparation of the customs meteorological service. failure of candidates in 1873, to advance the cause of customs meteorological observations, hart issued instructions regarding meteorological instruments, registers for meteorological records, and other related materials. he emphasized the necessity of equipping each station with alexander buchan's (1829-1907) introductory text-book of meteorology and one or two additional books on meteorological subjects for the use of the customs clerk responsible for the instruments. this would not only serve as a guide for their meteorological work but also provide them with a deeper understanding of meteorological observations and records. 4 published in 1871, buchan's book stands as a classic textbook of modern british meteorology and is also among 3 yan wu, science, interest and expansion of europe: zi-ka-wei observatory (1873-1950) in the context of the territorial expansion of european modern science (china social sciences press, 2013),35-39; yan wu, “observatory of zi-ka-wei and modern meteorological station network founded in china,” studies in the history of natural sciences 32, no. 2 (2013): 165175; hao wang, “the observatory of zikawei and meteorology in modern china,” academic monthly 49, no. 9 (2017):173184. 4 robert bickers and catherine ladds, chinese maritime customs project occasional paper no.3: robert hart, documents relating to, 1. the establishment of meteorological stations in china; and 2. proposals for co-operation in the publication of meteorological observations and exchange of weather news by telegraph along the pacific coast of asia (bristol university, 2008), 5, https://www.chinafamilies.net/wpcontent/uploads/2021/06/occasionalpaper3.pdf history of meteorology 12 (2025) 3 the essential publications required for observers affiliated with the royal meteorological society.5 this underscores the relevance and connection of chinese customs meteorological work to british meteorology. the proposal of the customs meteorological scheme by hart, the inspectorate general of chinese maritime customs, met with varied reactions in england. in june 1874, j.d. campbell reported to hart, stating: “i have been informed that mr. blandford, the meteorological inspector in bengal who has recently returned, holds your scheme in high esteem but considers it overly ambitious. he expresses concern that it may falter unless you can secure someone with the expertise to execute and implement it.”6 india was a significant overseas colony of britain, and henry blanford (1834-1893) served as the inaugural “meteorological reporter” for the british indian government, focusing primarily on cyclone research. 7 as a seasoned meteorological reporter, blanford’s endorsement of hart’s customs meteorological programme is likely to align with his consistent advocacy for expanding the number of indian observatories. he has emphasized repeatedly that only a diverse network of observatories can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of weather conditions across the continent.8 blanford’s only reservation about hart’s customs meteorological programme was the appointment of the person in charge, as their role was crucial for the successful implementation of the entire programme. in telegraphic communications with hart, campbell suggested five candidates for consideration, with the final decision on employment resting with hart. the first candidate to be disqualified was philip wodehouse (1811-1887), who had resigned as the governor of the cape town colony in 1870.9 he was deemed unsuitable due to his advanced age and the absence of specialized meteorological knowledge.10 the second candidate was the austrian astronomer robert gustav schram (1850-1923), who was 24 years and had worked as an assistant at the geneva observatory.11 although he fulfilled hart's requirement that the person in charge be a young man, the question of whether he had sufficient experience in teaching and meteorological observations was a matter of concern. ‘experience in teaching and meteorological observations is a cause for concern.’ 12 hart's vision for the customs meteorological observation prompted him to want to establish an observatory in tongwenkuan13 to oversee the customs meteorological observatories. consequently, he sought 5 qian chen and beibei li, “analysis of alexander buchan's meteorological research, practice and contribution,” progress in meteorological science and technology 14, no. 5 (2024): 71-75. 6 as an english man, scot, he joined the london agency of the chinese maritime customs in 1862 and maintained a close collaboration with hart. 7 roy t. “‘the law of storms’: european and indigenous responses to natural disasters in colonial india, c. 1800–1850,” australian economic history review 50, no. 1 (2010): 6-22. 8 cullen b. and geros c l， “constructing the monsoon: colonial meteorological cartography, 1844–1944,” history of meteorology 9, (2020): 1-26. 9 blakeley b l, “pensions and professionalism: the colonial governors (pensions) acts and the british colonial service, 1865–1911,” the journal of imperial and commonwealth history 4, no. 2 (1976): 138-153. 10 xiafei chen, archives of china's imperial maritime customs confidential correspondence between robert hart and james duncan campbell 1874-1907 (zhonghua shuju,1992),15. 11 “schram, robert,” prof. dr. klaus karttunen´s work who was who of indian studies, accessed october. 17, 2023, https://whowaswho-indology.info/6084/schram-robert/. 12 chen, archives of china's imperial maritime customs confidential correspondence between robert hart and james duncan campbel, 100. 13 the proposal by hart to establish an observatory at tong-wenkuan ultimately did not come to fruition. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 4 candidates with teaching experience to fulfil this role. 14 the third candidate was ralph copeland (1837-1905), a scottish astronomer whose professional competence was widely acknowledged within the field.15 however, he expressed the need for an assistant to accompany him on regular visits to weather stations and to manage the meteorological instruments.16 furthermore, the italian astronomer demetrio emilio diamilla muller (1826-1908) also expressed his interest in the position.17 however, hart was dissatisfied with the tone of his letter and subsequently disqualified him. after careful consideration, hart decided to appoint the scottish astronomer copeland as the head of the customs meteorological service. unfortunately, the hiring process fell through in 1876.18 the field of customs meteorological work suffered from a lack of guidance and expertise from professional meteorologists. details of early meteorological work customs observatories constitute one of the most crucial aspects of meteorological work conducted by customs. while there is no direct public documentation of the early operations of meteorological work within customs, insights into this period can be gleaned from the annual reports penned by the customs medical officer. these reports, which were partly based on the meteorological report of the local customs port commissioner's office or the customs gazette19 of the department of revenue, offer valuable details about the early implementation of meteorological observations at customs ports. in the absence of unified management by the head of meteorological work, there was a significant variation in the types, models, and quantities of meteorological instruments available at customs meteorological observatories. for instance, beijing customs utilized a negretti&zambra self-registering thermometer without a barometer; 20 foochow customs department employed a mercury barometer;21 shanghai customs adopted fortin's standard of 5/10 inch bore, no. 287 22 ; and chinkiang customs used a non-liquid barometer. the occurrence of unreliable measurements from existing meteorological instruments indicates that the customs’ instruments are inaccurate due to a lack of calibration.23 the placement of instruments primarily includes thermometers and barometers. regarding the placement of thermometers, each customs station acknowledged the need for them to be positioned in a shaded area, but there were discrepancies in the specific arrangements at different ports. for example, at newchwang customs, they hung the thermometers under the balcony on the north wall of the customs facility,24 while foochow 14 wright s f, documents illustrative of the origin, development and activities of the chinese customs service 1 (statistical department of the inspectorate general of customs,1937), 177-78. 15chen, archives of china's imperial maritime customs confidential correspondence between robert hart and james duncan campbel, 100. 16 chen, archives of china's imperial maritime customs confidential correspondence between robert hart and james duncan campbel, 69. 17 gasperini a and bianchi s, “arcetri: 100 anni da osservatorio astrofisico ,” arcetri: 100 anni da osservatorio astrofisico, (2021): 49-52. 18 wenxin xu, “the construction and transfer of the hart customs meteorological network (1869-1882),” customs and economic and trade research 43, no. 2 (2022):80. 19 as hart had not yet promulgated the printing of a uniform register of meteorological records at this time, the meteorological reports are analyzed here on the basis of their appearance in the medical reports. 20 r. a. jamieson, medical reports: volume 1. (national library press, 2016), 130-32. 21 jamieson, medical reports 1, 267-68. 22jamieson, medical reports 1, 367. 23 r. a. jamieson, medical reports: volume 2. (national library press, 2016), 260. 24 jamieson, medical reports 1, 238-39. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 5 customs placed them on the north-east wall.25 as for the hanging position of barometers, newchwang customs installed the barometer at a height of 8 feet from the ground,26 whereas shanghai customs hung it 16 feet from the ground.27 regarding observation times, most customs entities conducted one observation between 8:00-9:30 a.m. and another between 3:30-4:00 p.m. amoy customs, however, had a higher frequency of observations, conducting six per day, averaging one meteorological observation every four hours starting from 4:00 a.m., 28totalling approximately one hour of observations daily. the majority of other customs ports conducted only two observations per day. the variations in meteorological work conducted at these customs can be attributed to the lack of a unified deployment and standardization of meteorological observations in their early stages, which paved the way for the subsequent implementation of meteorological norms. engagement of william doberck with chinese maritime customs the hong kong observatory was founded in kowloon in 1883. most of its senior staff were recruited based on recommendations from the royal observatory greenwich in the united kingdom. similarly, most of the instruments utilized in the observatory were sourced from british instrument manufacturers. additionally, the colonial service was tasked with financing the construction of the observatory’s buildings and overseeing the management of its staff.29 in 1882, the colonial public office solicited recommendations from astronomers of the royal society for candidates to serve as the director of the hong kong observatory. subsequently, in january 1883, william doberck (1852-1941) was appointed to lead the newly established institution.30 in may of the same year, doberck was elected as a member of the british meteorological society. 31 he was an energetic individual who aspired to make significant contributions to the field of meteorology. conducting site visits to provide expert advice upon arriving in hong kong in june 1883, doberck, the director of the hong kong observatory, conducted meteorological missions along the coast of china and in the philippine islands. he was also instructed to establish contact with the directors of the xujiahui observatory in shanghai, the chinese maritime customs, and the manila observatory to seek cooperation. 32 given the rapid changes in typhoons, maintaining friendly contact with neighbouring observatories was crucial. in september of the same year, hart, from the imperial maritime customs service administration, issued a notice requesting cooperation from hong kong: “the hong kong government astronomer, dr. doberck, will soon be on a 25 jamieson, medical reports 1, 49. 26 jamieson, medical reports 2, 513-20. 27 jamieson, medical reports 1, 16-17. 28 jamieson, medical reports 2, 301-05. 29 williamson f., “just doing their job: the hidden meteorologists of colonial hong kong c. 1883–1914,” the british journal for the history of science, (2021): 1-19. 30 mackeown p. k, “ william doberck—a stormy career founding the hong kong observatory,” journal of the royal asiatic society hong kong branch 44,(2004): 5-39. 31 “the meteorological society,” symons's monthly meteorological magazine ccviii, (1883): 55-56. 32mackeown, “ william doberck,” 8-9. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 6 meteorological mission to the ports of entry, and the customs officers concerned are requested to help doberck.”33 hart held a positive attitude towards doberck’s travels and offered to assist him in any way possible. however, the progress of customs meteorological work was hindered by various issues. hart hoped that the concerned customs commissioner would soon understand the purpose of doberck’s visit and emphasized that cooperation could only proceed after obtaining authorization from the inspectorate general of customs.34 doberck spent two months visiting shantou, xiamen, shanghai, and other chinese ports of entry, as well as the penghu islands and the lighthouse at macao on a customs cruiser. due to the vacancy of the head of the customs meteorological observatory, some meteorological instruments had not been calibrated for use. during his stays in shanghai and xiamen, doberck inspected, adjusted, and calibrated the existing customs meteorological instruments. recognizing the customs meteorological stations as an important observation network in east asia, doberck aimed to expand the scope of the customs meteorological observatory and standardize observations, thereby elevating the prestige of the hong kong observatory.35 in another quintessential example, during doberck’s visit to the south cape lighthouse in october 1883, j. mcleavy brown, the customs commissioner officer, engaged in a discussion with doberck regarding the installation of a meteorological instrument at the lighthouse. a summary of these deliberations contended: he [doberck] considers south cape a highly important station for meteorological purposes, and especially is of opinion that continuous readings taken there by self-recording instruments would have great value. the matter will form the subject of a special report as soon as the present political difficulties in formosa show signs of an approaching settlement, without which the suggestions to be made could not be carried out.36 the significance that doberck placed on the geographical location of the south cape lighthouse and the worth of conducting self-recorded meteorological observations triggered meteorological observations at the lighthouse. recognizing the customs meteorological work as a crucial observation network in east asia, doberck harboured hopes that by expanding the scope of customs meteorological work and standardizing observations, he could elevate his own fame and the social standing of the hong kong observatory. utilizing his extensive knowledge of meteorology, doberck was able to establish an initial safeguard for customs meteorological observations and enhance their value. amid this auspicious environment, hart issued the following instructions: “from 1 april 1884, customs regularly sent meteorological data to the hong kong observatory free of charge through the british post office, which marked the formal cooperation between customs and the hong kong observatory.”37 33 “second series. no.235.enclosure. government house, hong kong, 23rd august1883,”in general office of the general administration of customs of the people's republic of china. modern inspectorate general of chinese maritime customs, part i. general taxation department general orders, volume 3. (china customs press, 2012),145. 34 “inspector general's circulars.no.235.peking,7th september 1883,”in general office of the general administration of customs of the people's republic of china. modern inspectorate general of chinese maritime customs, part i. general taxation department general orders, volume 3. (china customs press, 2012),144. 35 williamson f and wilkinson c., “asian extremes: experience and exchange in the development of meteorological knowledge c. 1840-1930,” history of meteorology 8, (2017):159. 36 china imperial maritime customs, customs papers no.22. reports on light, buoys, and beacons, for the year 1884 (statistical department of the inspectorate general of customs, 1885), 76. 37 “inspector general's circulars.no.271.peking, 6th march 1884,”the chinese maritime customs published a database of modern chinese historical materials, accessed january 17, 2021, http://history.customskb.com/web/home. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 7 furthermore, in december 1884, j. mcleavy brown, the amoy/xiamen customs commissioner officer, highlighted in his annual report on the status of new meteorological instruments within the customs that new instruments had been installed at appropriate stations within the xiamen customs during the year. specifically, a set of meteorological instruments comprised of the following: one standard mercury barometer with an attached thermometer, one hygrometer with dry and wet bulb thermometers positioned side by side, one maximum thermometer, one minimum thermometer, and one rain gauge.38 this new set of meteorological instruments was installed in accordance with doberck's recommendations. the standard thermometers were positioned in each lighthouse station keeper’s office. the four thermometers—dry-bulb, wet-bulb, maximum, and minimum—were enclosed in thermometer screens, following doberck’s suggestion, featured double-sided shutters, later known as the louvre box. this box was to be situated in the yard of the lighthouse, preferably in the centre of the lawn, and the rain gauge was also positioned in the yard. to provide a more vivid illustration of the thermometer screen, brown incorporated a drawing into the report (fig. 1), which was crafted by doberck to scale, accurately depicting the intricate details of the thermometer screen.39 thanks to his collaboration with the customs service, doberck was able to conduct meteorological research using data obtained from the customs’ meteorological work. during the regular meeting of the british meteorological society in 1888, doberck, in conjunction with the director of the british meteorological office, presented an article titled “meteorology of south-eastern china in 1886,” which was based on meteorological observations recorded by customs staff at the customs house and lighthouse.40 this underscores the mutually beneficial cooperation between customs and doberck. fig. 1. drawing of a thermometer screen for positioning thermometers source: china imperial maritime customs. “customs papers no.22.” reports on light, buoys, and beacons, for the year 1884. 38 china customs, customs papers no.22., 72. 39 china customs, customs papers no.22., 73. 40 “the meteorological society,” symons's monthly meteorological magazine cclxviii, no. 14 (1888): 57-58. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 8 recommendations and applications for lighthouse meteorology lighthouses played a crucial role in facilitating the smooth operation of customs meteorological activities. on 28 march 1876, a. m. bisbee, the coast inspector of customs, proposed to hart that a standardized system for managing chinese lighthouses should be established to clarify the responsibilities of lighthouse keepers. he emphasized that the u.s. government had already published a book titled instructions and directions to guide lighthouse keepers and others belonging to the lighthouse establishment. bisbee suggested that customs should also publish a similar book detailing the daily and routine duties of lighthouses, outlining clearly all the tasks required of a lighthouse keeper, and enforcing adherence to these tasks, thereby fostering uniformity and good order.41 hart placed greater emphasis on conducting certain types of meteorological observations, yet the initial meteorological instructions for customs lighthouses were not clearly defined. in 1884, a cooperative relationship was established between customs and the hong kong observatory, allowing doberck to utilize his meteorological expertise to provide recommendations for improving customs’ meteorological practices. given the importance of typhoon warnings for the commercial interests of coastal communities, doberck addressed the need for observing approaching typhoons by issuing temporary observation instructions, which required reports to be conducted every half hour and additional equipment such as thermometers, barometers, and instruments to measure wind direction and force, as well as weather conditions. on this basis, the “memorandum for lightkeepers” was introduced. during typhoons, meteorological observations were conducted eight times a day: at 3 a.m., 6 a.m., 9 a.m., noon, 3 p.m., 6 p.m., 9 p.m., and midnight. in october 1884, j. mcleavy brown, the amoy customs officer, dispatched a memorandum to the lighthouse keepers, expressing his hope that customs officers would adhere to the memorandum’s guidelines for completing meteorological work at lighthouse observation points during typhoons. the memorandum primarily focused on establishing an orderly procedure for conducting meteorological observations.42 in 1884, the customs lighthouse meteorological return book, specifically the lights form, underwent a significant restructuring. at that time, the meteorological return book contained 19 primary items that were to be observed and recorded by the managers of the customs lighthouse observation points, as outlined in figure 2.43 furthermore, in april 1885, the customs department dispatched j. r. harding44, an assistant engineer, to the hong kong observatory to undergo training and receive instructions on the construction of meteorological facilities.45 this initiative involved harding’s design for the arrangement of meteorological instruments in the customs lighthouse layout plan. according to the existing 1889 layout plan of the south cape lighthouse, which features harding’s signature in the lower right corner and a serial number of 26 in the upper right corner for the meteorological instruments, the placement of anemometers was carefully considered. 41 china customs papers no.6. marine department: lights. 1875 reports. (1), (statistical department of the inspectorate general of customs, 1876), 49-50. 42 china customs, customs papers no.22., 75-76. 43 the fundamental tasks of the lighthouse keeper, such as polishing the lens, trimming the wick, and filling the lamp with oil, ensured that the flame was properly focused. in conjunction with the lighthouse's rotating mechanism at the top, this ensured that the light could be seen from all directions. roman belyaev, journey to the lighthouse: history and knowledge of lighthouses, trans. wang z. (zhejiang education press, 2022), 30. 44 harding, a british national, joined the customs service in december 1880. 45 bickers r., “‘throwing light on natural laws'’: meteorology on the china coast, 1869–1912,” in treaty ports in modern china, (routledge, 2016), 179-200. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 9 this design leverages the geographical advantages of the lighthouse observation site to facilitate the accurate recording of wind speed (fig. 3).46 content title content title 1. date of month. 11. minimum thermometer. 2. hours at which readings are taken. 12. rainfall: (a.) inches, (b.) hours. 3. attached thermometer. 13. state of lamp. 4. barometer. 14. height of flame. 5. thermometers: (a.) dry bulb, (b.) damp bulb, (c.) inside lantern. 15. rate of overflow. 6. wind:(a.) direction, (b.) force. 16. time of trimming. 7. state of weather. 17. time taken in trimming. 8. visibility of fog mark. 18. remarks. 9. visibility of buoys, beacons, and lights. 19. signature of observer. 10. maximum thermometer. fig. 2. customs lighthouse meteorological return book content source: china imperial maritime customs. “customs papers no.22.” reports on light, buoys, and beacons, for the year 1884. fig. 3. plan of south cape of formosa lighthouse. source: china imperial maritime customs. “customs papers no.31.” reports on light, buoys, and beacons, for the year 1889. 46 china imperial maritime customs, customs papers no.31. reports on light, buoys, and beacons, for the year 1889 (statistical department of the inspectorate general of customs, 1890), 75. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 10 doberck’s expert advice has greatly benefited the customs lighthouse, which serves as a crucial component of the customs meteorological observation network. the recommendations for both typhoon and non-typhoon observations are designed to complement the daily work of customs lighthouse personnel, while also emphasizing the need for dynamic updates to meteorological records during periods of frequent typhoons. this enables the customs lighthouse to issue effective typhoon warnings in a timely manner. collaborative publication of meteorological standards in 1887, with the backing of the statistical department of the inspectorate general of customs, doberck published a two-volume work titled instructions for making meteorological observations prepared for use in china; the law of storms in the eastern seas. it is important to note that all the works by doberck published by the customs on this occasion are reprints. the initial volume, which was originally published in the hong kong telegraph in 1883,47 also marked the inaugural publication of the hong kong observatory. the other volume, issued by the hong kong observatory in 1886, was specifically intended for use by mariners. together with the nautical meteorological charts, this publication provided valuable assistance to mariners in avoiding strong typhoons during typhoon season.48 doberck’s publications incorporated important contemporary works, with the first volume having a nuanced connection to the british meteorological director, scott's instructions in the use of meteorological instruments from the meteorological society. meanwhile, the other volume drew directly from the earlier research and methodologies of reid, piddington, rosser, and birtwistle. 49 this study focuses on the utilization of doberck’s instructions for making meteorological observations prepared for use in china within the context of customs. in the preface of that instruction, doberck emphasized that unregulated meteorological observations were futile and underscored the purpose of the guide: to assist customs meteorological observers, shipmasters, and sailors navigating chinese waters in conducting their observations and establishing a standardized, unified meteorological observation network. the collected weather data from these observatories would be sent to the hong kong observatory for analysis, enabling it to issue timely warnings before adverse weather conditions arrive. leveraging the customs meteorological stations, doberck aimed to establish a chinese meteorological intelligence network centred around the hong kong observatory and actively encouraged captains and sailors to participate. the book provided a concise overview of the use and calibration of various meteorological instruments, with a promise from the hong kong observatory to conduct regular calibration for certain instruments. the publication served as a valuable reference for early customs meteorological work, encompassing 22 pages that detailed barometers, thermometers, hygrometers, louvers, rain gauges, and their principles, construction, reading methods, and precautions. additionally, it covered aspects such as wind, clouds, weather, and sea-level fluctuations.50 applications and implications of customs meteorological norms since the customs had not explicitly defined the management responsibilities for customs meteorological work, doberck’s meteorological instructions did not become a 47 mackeown, “ william doberck,” 8. 48 pui-yin ho, weathering the storm: hong kong observatory and social development (hong kong university press, 2003), 169-181. 49 williamson and wilkinson, “asian extremes,”159-178. 50 w. doberck, “no.7 instructions for making meteorological observations, prepared for use in china; and the law of storms in the eastern seas,” in harvard university library collection of unpublished historical materials on old chinese customs (1860-1949) 208 vols. (guangxi normal university press, 2014), 1-48. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 11 formally mandated chapter or regulation within the customs meteorological practices. consequently, doberck’s guidance on meteorological observations during this time is viewed as the nascent stage of standardized meteorological observations within the customs. specific applications doberck’s position as the director of the hong kong observatory, rather than as a qing dynasty customs official, posed challenges to the implementation of the meteorological work guide. as doberck lacked authority to supervise customs officials in conducting meteorological observations, the process of integrating the 22-page booklet he authored, despite his non-customs officer status, into customs meteorological work in the late 19th century is illuminated by the following reports from within the customs service. for the pakhoi/beihai customs, a. sharp deane, 51 the customs medical officer, appended a table of meteorological observations to his annual report for 1889 and mentioned: “i append a meteorological table, the temperature being taken according to the rules laid down by the astronomer at the hong kong observatory.”52 the astronomer of the hong kong observatory mentioned in deane’s report was none other than doberck. in the section on the calibration of meteorological instruments in the instructions for making meteorological observations prepared for use in china, doberck repeatedly mentioned that government astronomers from the hong kong observatory would provide calibrations, 53 alluding to himself. doberck was very concerned about titles, considering himself first and foremost a professional astronomer, and has repeatedly used the title government astronomer in public.54 instances of the pamphlet being used within the customs service were not isolated. in his medical reports over the following five years,55 deane repeatedly emphasized that the temperatures recorded in his reports were measured according to the standards set by the astronomers of the hong kong observatory, thereby affirming the relevance and applicability of doberck’s meteorological observing norms within customs practices. in addition, in january 1891, a. m. bisbee (1841-1901), the coast inspector of the customs, mentioned in his annual report the situation of the observation-point at the gutzlaff light: the set of meteorological instruments lacked both a minimum and a ground radiation thermometer, and the rain gauge was too high above the ground. the keeper’s attention was called to this matter, and he was ordered to place it in accordance with the instructions in dr. doberck’s pamphlet. the general condition of the station shows that the keeper in charge attends carefully to his duties.56 in the arrangement of meteorological instruments at gutzlaff light, bisbee gave instructions to the lighthouse keeper to arrange the instruments according to the requirements in doberck’s pamphlet. apart from the gutzlaff light, on 19 november 1891, bisbee visited the north saddle light, which was managed by c. w. bond,57 the lighthouse keeper. bisbee found that the lighthouse had a full set of meteorological instruments, except for a ground radiation 51 a british national joined the customs service in january 1880, but the date of their death is unknown. 52 r. a. jamieson, medical reports: volume 6. (national library press, 2016), 13-15. 53 doberck, “no.7 instructions for making meteorological observations,”13. 54 mackeown, “william doberck,” 5-15. 55 the rules established by the astronomers of the hong kong observatory are referenced in deane's annual reports for the pakhoi customs covering the years 1889-1890, 1890-1891, 1891, and 1893-1894. 56 china imperial maritime customs, customs papers no.33. reports on light, buoys, and beacons, for the year 1890 (statistical department of the inspectorate general of customs, 1891), 39-40. 57 a british national joined the customs in june 1877 and was assigned to the shanghai customs. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 12 thermometer, but the rain gauge should be positioned lower, and bond was asked to place the gauge following the instruction.58 bisbee oversaw the customs coast inspector, which involved a meteorological component. from his inspection of the lighthouse, he asked the lighthouse keeper to position the rain gauge at the lighthouse meteorological station according to the specifications in doberck’s instruction for meteorological observations.59 bisbee’s behaviour is also indicative of the practical application of doberck’s publications in customs meteorological work at the end of the 19th century. significance of enactment in 1905, the customs, prompted by coast inspector w. f. tyler, a british naval officer, published instruction concerning meteorological work. this document was the only guide for customs and excise meteorological work in the 20th century and featured a preface outlining customs meteorological work in the 19th century.60the preamble highlights the pros and cons of meteorological work within customs, noting that customs meteorological observers were part-time employees with non-meteorological backgrounds, leading to varying qualities of observation records. however, thanks to the customs management system, the implementation of uniform norms and the advancement of standards for meteorological observations were successfully achieved. the meteorological work of the service has been going on for many years, but it is only recently that is has been systematized as a whole and its administration placed in the hands of the coast inspector. valuable as the work now performed undoubtedly is, there remains room for improvement. the fact that our observers are mostly untrained men, and that they do the work as a matter of duty, without the interest in it that volunteers would have, tends to imperfection and perfunctoriness. on the other hand, the fact that all are members of one service renders possible that uniformity of practice which is so important a point in meteorological matters.61 historical experience demonstrates that the successful operation of a meteorological observation network necessitates the establishment of a unified meteorological observation code. in practice, customs encountered numerous aspects of meteorological work that required refinement. however, the promulgation of a unified meteorological work specification was delayed due to the scarcity of professionals with meteorological backgrounds within the customs department. in 1887, customs published instructions for making meteorological observations prepared for use in china, authored by dr. doberck, the director of the hong kong observatory 62 . this publication served as a reference for some customs offices to conduct meteorological work in the late 19th century. while the regulation of customs meteorological work had yet to be clearly defined at the end of the 19th century, despite the availability of reference books, there was no cohesive system to ensure customs staff adhered to meteorological observation guidelines, leaving 58 china customs, customs papers no.33., 40. 59 the pamphlets and guides here refer to doberck's instructions for making meteorological observations prepared for use in china; the law of storms in the eastern seas, published by the customs department in 1887, which is referred to differently by different customs officers. 60 qian chen and xiaocen li, etc., “tyler and the chinese maritime customs meteorological observation protocols in the late qing dynasty,” the chinese journal for the history of science and technology 45, no. 3 (2024):520-31. 61 shanghai statistical department of the inspectorate general of customs, the maritime customs iv. service series: no.27.instructions concerning meteorological work 1905, (tianjin archives, 401206800-w0001-15-001048). 62 doberck, “no.7 instructions for making meteorological observations,”13-15. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 13 customs meteorological work unregulated. however, it is important to acknowledge that doberck, as a trailblazer in regulating customs meteorology, provided invaluable guidance for customs meteorological work during that period. in 1905, customs issued the maritime customs iv. service series: no. 27. instructions concerning meteorological work 1905, marking the inception of strict management of meteorological work by customs. this document explicitly stipulated that customs meteorological work must be conducted in accordance with the entries outlined in the instructions.63 the successive meteorological norms introduced by the qing customs, including instructions for making meteorological observations prepared for use in china published by doberck in 1887, drew the customs’ attention to meteorological standards and laid the groundwork for the official adoption of customs meteorological norms at the end of the qing dynasty. conclusion in the nascent stages of meteorological work by the chinese maritime customs, a lack of regulation led to inaccuracies in meteorological records. recognizing this, inspectorate general robert hart decided to adopt a cooperative approach to enhance customs meteorological work. consequently, the customs actively engaged with meteorologists across east asia and, in collaboration with doberck from the hong kong observatory, published instructions for making meteorological observations prepared for use in china. this publication detailed meteorological instruments, observation elements, and observation times. although authored by doberck personally, it was utilized within the customs’ meteorological section. the partnership between the customs and doberck can be seen as a mutually beneficial strategy. thanks to the meteorological advice and support provided by doberck and the hong kong observatory, the customs’ lighthouse meteorological observation sites improved, and the placement of meteorological instruments was incorporated into the initial planning stages of subsequent lighthouse construction, making meteorological observation a key additional function of customs lighthouses. the correspondence between doberck and the customs regarding meteorological matters provided guidance for actual customs meteorological observation work, serving as the seed for customs meteorological norms reform and laying the groundwork for the reform of customs meteorological work in the early 20th century. acknowledgements the peer reviewers’ rigorous advice and critiques have significantly strengthened the analytical framework and evidence validity of this investigation. this project benefitted from the financial support of a shandong university of traditional chinese medicine: “learning from china and the west: investigation and research on the relationship between climate and disease by modern customs officer” (kyrw2024q01) and shandong postdoctora1 science foundation “research on the excavation and application of old customs meteorological archives in shandong province” (sdcx-rs-202500006). 63 r.e. bredon, circular memorandum. no.51/d.i.g. meteorological matters,23rd june,1903 in inspectorate general of customs, deputy inspector general’s office, shanghai, 1900-1904 (yantai city archives, j090-001-0873). microsoft word introduction page numbers fixed.doc history of meteorology 8 (2017)     1 relocating meteorology martin mahony m.mahony@uea.ac.uk university of east anglia angelo matteo caglioti angelo.caglioti@eui.eu european university institute geographers, environmental historians, sociologists and historians of science have recently rediscovered the history of meteorology. they have recognized meteorology as a central, rather than peripheral discipline at the intersection of the relationship between science, environment, and society. histories of nineteenth and twentieth century meteorology tell of great theoretical strides and pioneering individuals. however, they also increasingly focus on new questions, concerning, inter alia, the role of technology and material culture in meteorological knowledge production, the use of weather knowledges in the service of industrial, military, financial or agricultural interests, and the enduring significance of local cultures in the face of new emphases on global processes. global and local at the same time, the history of meteorology is being re-articulated as the result of a plurality of histories that still offer a largely uncharted territory to historical inquiry. the field of history of meteorology is thus undergoing something of a renaissance. a number of recent works have shown how the disciplinary histories of the atmospheric sciences are germane not only to the practitioners and enthusiasts of those fields, but to wider, conceptual concerns across history of science and cognate disciplines. there is, no doubt, much to be said for the role of global anthropogenic climate change in bringing the political saliency and import of the atmospheric sciences to the attention of a broader readership. as projections of future climate invite increasingly radical societal action to avoid the worst consequences of environmental change, the complex imbrications of atmospheric science with politics, ideology and culture are being laid bare. many are asking the question of how and why the atmospheric sciences became so ‘politicised’, while others embrace the observation that assuming a strict separation between science and politics a priori risks overlooking how these sciences have always been freighted not just with intellectual curiosity history of meteorology 8 (2017)     2 and a will to truth, but also with political ambition and a will to power. the new power of the atmospheric sciences to structure everyday experiences (such as through the banality of the weather forecast) and to shape political imaginations and decisions in an age of climate change is one side of an emerging analytical coin. the other seeks to understand the flow of power and influence the other way, from society into science – to understand how and why particular forms of meteorology and climatology emerged in particular places and times, how these disciplines reflect the preoccupations of the societies from which they emerge, and how they were enrolled into political projects of control, domination, and perhaps even emancipation. with this special issue, we aim to build upon these analytic moves, and to push the field of history of meteorology a little further around what we detect as an emerging ‘spatial turn’. by ‘relocating meteorology’, we aim to crystallise emerging historiographical trends, broaden the geographical reach of our histories, and advance innovative concepts for the development of the field in the future. in this introduction, we lay out the intellectual rationale for this effort, and introduce how the subsequent papers in this issue contribute to the tasks which we see as currently sitting before the field. in the next section, we seek to deepen the question of why the history of meteorology suddenly appears so germane, and attractive to new students and researchers. in the subsequent section, we further sketch out the renewal of the field which we currently detect to be underway, before introducing how the papers which make up this issue contribute to the broader project of relocating meteorology. in the concluding section of this short essay, we reflect on where the field might go next, positing the project of relocating meteorology as a work in progress, but a work which can greatly contribute towards our understanding of the imbrications of space, knowledge and power in the atmospheric sciences and beyond. why the history of meteorology matters today the most obvious place to start an account of why the history of meteorology matters, and matters now, is the growing prominence of climate as a source of cultural anxiety and political controversy. with concerns about anthropogenic climate change guiding the field, modern climatology “is burdened with the enormous challenge of delineating how climate relates to social and economic life”.1 this challenge is pursued through work which seeks to surgically isolate the elements of climatic trends which can be attributed to human agency, and through work which seeks to predict the impacts of future climatic shifts on the social and economic life of nations. yet as a number of historians have shown, this confluence of thinking about climate and society is far from new. indeed, the history of the sciences of the atmosphere suggests that studying climate “is always about studying society, vicariously or not”.2 thus, in the current cultural and political atmosphere and in the face of the                                                                                                                 1 fleming, j. r. and jankovic, v. (2011) ‘revisiting klima’, osiris, 26(1), p. 1. 2 fleming and jankovic, ‘revisiting klima’, p. 10. history of meteorology 8 (2017)     3 anthropocene, the history of meteorology is called upon to examine on the one hand the relationship between understandings of climate and society, and on the other how scientific evidence and truth-making claims about the weather are deeply entangled with broader cultural and political realms. intellectual histories of climate have shown how the concept has always been imbricated in discourses about the nature of human difference and about the ideal organisation of social life.3 crucially, these observations have started to inform work on the historical development of meteorological knowledge-making. yet until recently, research into the intellectual genealogies of ‘climate’ and into the history of the atmospheric sciences had tended to proceed in some isolation by following individual theorists, national case studies, and isolated achievements. following a broader transformation in the history of science and science and technology studies (sts), the focus has shifted from scientific theories about the weather to meteorological practices, spaces, material and instrumental cultures. in short, new scholarship is showing more directly how the conduct of meteorology and climatology is deeply entangled with society.4 this journal issue intends to contribute to the reshaping of the historiography of meteorology by highlighting some of its most advanced current trends. the new interdisciplinary approach of science studies in recent decades has turned the history of meteorology into an ideal contact zone between the history and philosophy of science, geography, environmental history, anthropology and sociology of science. such crossfertilization is dramatically renewing the historiography of meteorological studies broadly conceived, to build a more inclusive history of meteorology that encompasses usually overlooked actors and sites of knowledge-production. the focus on pioneering individuals and institutional archives has been supplemented with a new interest in the wider coevolution or ‘co-production’ of atmospheric science and society.5 thus, understanding meteorology and climatology as co-produced with the social world adds a new answer to the question of why studying the history of meteorology matters today. if meteorology and climatology are not just sites where the rather arcane study of weather and climate has been pursued in quiet isolation from societal concerns and cultural forces, they become a mirror of the making of the modern world as an interconnected network of information, data and conceptual and anticipatory knowledge. while environmental historians might find it more intuitive to state that there is no history outside of the atmosphere that surrounds us, and that this atmosphere is by definition already global, the history of meteorology is newly discovering how we came to conceive of the “climate” as a global phenomenon, whose study required the involvement of central observatories,                                                                                                                 3 ruth a morgan, “argument, authority and anxiety in the atmospheric sciences,” history of meteorology 6, no. january (2014): 14–16. 4 david n. livingstone, “race, space and moral climatology: notes toward a genealogy,” journal of historical geography 28, no. 2 (2002): 159–80; james rodger fleming, historical perspectives on climate change (oxford: oxford university press, 2005); mike hulme, weathered: cultures of climate (london: sage, 2016). 5 on science-society co-production, see sheila jasanoff, ed. states of knowledge: the co-production of science and social order, (london: routledge, 2004). history of meteorology 8 (2017)     4 expansive networks of observations, and vast intellectual communities. meteorology – as theory, practice, and intellectual or institutional concern – connected local savants, imperial intermediaries, indigenous communities, and scientific instruments. ideas about the climate were shaped by this global endeavour. in short, the history of meteorology and climatology provide a crucial avenue to understand the social fabric of the making of the modern, globalised world. in the past, meteorology was considered an ancillary science in the history physics and mathematics. its relevance was apparent only once its techniques had been perfected, and predictive skill secured. rather, the scientific disciplines concerned with the study of atmospheric phenomena are increasingly being seen as mirrors of the societies in which they have been embedded at different points in time. rather than being singled out as a pitfall as in the past, the instability of the weather and the fluctuations of the climate make meteorology stand out because it exposes the “limits” of enlightenment rationality and of human control over nature.6 thus, this new approach to the history of meteorology stands in close consort with our current sensitivity and understanding of how we transform the natural world through anthropogenic climate change, while humanity as a whole remains exposed to both the vehemence and fragility of the global atmosphere. studying the history of meteorology and climatology can provide important and consequential insights into societal attitudes to nature, into the cultural politics of human difference, and into the changing place of scientific knowledge and foreknowledge in the organisation of society and politics. new spaces: “relocating meteorology” in new geographies of meteorological knowledge this themed issue emphasizes the interdisciplinary, social, and spatial turn of emerging scholarship in the history of meteorology. it interrogates how ideas about the weather and climate intersected geographical spaces, scientific practices, and were shaped by the social world. the title of the issue “relocating meteorology” was inspired by kapil raj’s influential work relocating modern science, in which he called for a historiographical revolution in how we deal with the development of ‘western’ sciences, appealing for a shift in focus from processes of diffusion from metropole to periphery, towards models of circulation and intercultural encounter in the production of inherently hybrid forms of knowledge.7 we would suggest that historians of meteorology can profitably view the challenge of ‘relocating meteorology’ as both a call to question the geographical boundaries of our historical inquiries, but also as an invitation to examine various ‘relocations’ of meteorology                                                                                                                 6 see jan golinski, british weather and the climate of enlightenment (chicago: university of chicago press, 2007). 7 kapil raj, relocating modern science: circulation and the construction of knowledge in south asia and europe, 1650-1900 (basingstoke: palgrave macmillan, 2007). history of meteorology 8 (2017)     5 itself – the processes and practices through which meteorology ‘travelled’, found new audiences and users, and was woven into new social and environmental projects of worldmaking. in doing so, historians of meteorology can build on the spatial turn in the history of science, which has generated an important strand of scholarship on the historical geographies of science, concerned with the spatiality of the production and circulation of scientific knowledge.8 such work has showed how scientific knowledge derives meaning and authority not through its forcible detachment from context, but through a number of mutually sustaining interactions with local, national or regional cultures and political formations. while much of this work has focused on the history of the life sciences where, for instance, the cultural conditioning of responses to the challenges of evolutionary theory provides clear illustration of the geographical thesis,9 this analytical approach is yet to fully make its mark in the history of the atmospheric sciences. as livingstone remarks, a “fully fledged historical geography of the science of climate and climatic discourse more broadly construed…is a real desideratum”.10 emerging work is starting to show more clearly how the sciences of weather and climate “cannot be divested from the circumstances surrounding its production, as regionalism, cultural difference, and local senses of belonging define vectors of research and even the basic meaning of climate”.11 work by jankovic12 and naylor13 has done the most to develop these points. emerging work on the practices and poetics of weather observation as a form of landscape dwelling, “where love of locality, prolonged residence, and a sense of parochial duty paid epistemic dividends”,14 can deepen this spatial turn, and trouble distinctions between professional science and amateur pastime.15                                                                                                                 8 see for example david n. livingstone, putting science in its place: geographies of scientific knowledge (chicago, il: university of chicago press, 2003); simon naylor, “introduction: historical geographies of science – places, contexts, cartographies,” the british journal for the history of science 38, no. 1 (2005): 1– 12; richard c. powell, “geographies of science: histories, localities, practices, futures,” progress in human geography 31, no. 3 (2007): 309–29; diarmid a. finnegan, “the spatial turn: geographical approaches in the history of science,” journal of the history of biology 41, no. 2 (2008): 369-388. 9 see david n. livingstone, dealing with darwin: place, politics, and rhetoric in religious engagements with evolution (baltimore, md: jhu press, 2014). 10 david n. livingstone, “reflections on the cultural spaces of climate,” climatic change 113, no. 1 (2012), p. 92. 11 fleming and jankovic, ‘revisiting klima’, p. 11. 12 vladimir jankovic, “the place of nature and the nature of place: the chorographic challenge to the history of british provincial science,” history of science 38, no. 1 (2000): 78–113; vladimir jankovic, “science migrations: mesoscale weather prediction from belgrade to washington, 1970–2000,” social studies of science 34, no. 1 (2004): 45–75. 13 simon naylor, “nationalizing provincial weather: meteorology in nineteenth-century cornwall,” the british journal for the history of science 39, no. 3 (2006): 407–33; simon naylor, “log books and the law of storms: maritime meteorology and the british admiralty in the nineteenth century,” isis 106, no. 4 (2015): 771–97. 14 david n. livingstone, “reading the heavens, planting the earth: cultures of british science,” history workshop journal 54, no. 54 (2000), p. 237 15 lucy veale, georgina endfield, and simon naylor, “knowing weather in place: the helm wind of cross fell,” journal of historical geography 45 (2014): 25–37; endfield, g. h., & morris, c. (2012). exploring the role of the amateur in the production and circulation of meteorological knowledge. climatic change, 113(1), 69–89. history of meteorology 8 (2017)     6 the project of ‘relocating meteorology’ entails also placing european meteorology in a broader, international, imperial, and global context. a great many histories of meteorology have focused on developments in various meteorological metropoles, and historians often remain prisoners of the boundaries of the nation-state and its centralized archives. elapsing the distinction between colonial and metropolitan science, as recently emphasized in hellen tilley’s africa as a living laboratory, historians have started paying more attention to forms of hybrid, creole, and vernacular meteorology.16 katharine anderson and deborah coen have also highlighted the importance of meteorology in the culture of victorian england and the geographical imagination of the austro-hungarian empire respectively, indicating important new directions for an analysis of how the study of the weather was always part of much broader cultural phenomena.17 the papers in this themed issue point to a qualitative shift in the history of meteorology, as they select local and national case studies as part of broader international and imperial transformations. some of this work is starting to examine histories in locations more distant from the centres of western wealth and power, to highlight the centrality of such places to understanding both the power of locality, and the contingency of globality, in the history of meteorology. it is no coincidence that several papers focus on the entanglement between meteorology and european empires. european colonies are increasingly attracting the attention of historians of meteorology, permitting examination of trans-national networks of intellectual exchange, and of how theories and practices changed, adapted, and hybridised as they spread from meteorological metropoles.18 in the spirit of raj’s “relocating modern science,” such work often overturns diffusionist models of the history of science, which view sciences of the colonial ‘periphery’ as pale imitations of metropolitan science.19 following the pioneering work of richard grove,20 we are beginning to get a fuller picture of how the ‘infrastructural                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         16 tilley, helen. africa as a living laboratory: empire, development, and the problem of scientific knowledge, 1870-1950 (chicago: university of chicago press, 2011); cushman, gregory t. “humboldtian science, creole meteorology, and the discovery of human-caused climate change in south america.” osiris 26, no. 1 (2011): 16–44. 17 coen, deborah r. “imperial climatographies from tyrol to turkestan.” osiris 26, no. 1 (2011): 45–65. anderson, katharine. predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology, (chicago, il: university of chicago press, 2005). 18 james beattie, emily o’gorman, and matthew henry, climate, science, and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand (basingstoke: palgrave macmillan, 2014); fiona williamson, “weathering the empire: meteorological research in the early british straits settlements,” the british journal for the history of science 48, no. 3 (2015): 475–92; martin mahony, “for an empire of ‘all types of climate’: meteorology as an imperial science,” journal of historical geography 51 (2016): 29–39; angelo matteo caglioti, meteorological imperialism. climate science, environment, and empire in liberal and fascist italy (1870-1940), phd diss. (university of california, berkeley, 2017). 19 george basalla, “the spread of western science,” science 156, no. 3775 (1967): 611–22; lewis pyenson, civilizing mission: exact sciences and french overseas expansion, 1830-1940 (baltimore, md: johns hopkins university press, 1993). 20 richard h. grove, “the east india company, the raj and the el nino: the critical role played by colonial scientists in establishing the mechanisms of global climate teleconnections 1770-1930,” in nature & the orient, ed. richard h. grove, vinita damodaran, and satpal sangwan (oxford: oxford university press, 1998), 301–23. history of meteorology 8 (2017)     7 globalism’21 of meteorology was built upon a polycentric geography of meteorological initiative, with the science shaping up differently in different places, according to thoroughly local concerns and pre-occupations.22 further work in this vein can bring “into sharper focus the ways in which theory and practice, science and society, intellectual projects and imperial ventures have interpenetrated”, thus enriching not only the historiography of meteorology, but of science and empire more broadly.23 in the same way that european colonial empires helped create the world we inhabit today, meteorology became an infrastructural and networked science shaped by imperial interconnections. “relocating meteorology” as opening new sites and discovering new actors the project of ‘relocating meteorology’ geographically opens a new set of opportunities for the study of both new sites and new actors. early path-breaking work on the history and sociology of the natural sciences focused on the rarefied spaces of the laboratory.24 more recently, the field has come into focus as a new object of historical and geographical investigation.25 robert kohler’s work on the contested positioning of the field between landscape and labscape has been formative here, and has opened up a range of questions concerning how field sites are delineated, how their natural unruliness may or may not be tamed, and how they furnish their investigators with authority.26 while meteorology may not be classically understood as a field science, it is a science whose history illustrates several moments when the distinctions between observatory and field become blurred, or contested. field campaigns and explorations of new territory usually involved meteorological observations, and prior to the establishment of extended, permanent observational infrastructures, meteorological knowledge production in colonial settings relied on the periodic forays of scientists, administrators or soldiers into the outside world. more conceptually, simon naylor has suggested that spaces such as islands have functioned as meteorological field sites, where scientific authority was gained through long periods of                                                                                                                 21 paul n. edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism,” osiris 21, no. 1 (2006): 229–50. 22 matthew henry, “‘inspired divination’: mapping the boundaries of meteorological credibility in new zealand, 1920–1939,” journal of historical geography 50, (2015): 66–75; chris o’brien, “deliberate confusions,” history of meteorology 6 (2014): 17–34; gregory t. cushman, “the imperial politics of hurricane prediction: from calcutta and havana to manila and galveston, 1839-1900,” in nation-states and the global environment, ed. mark lawrence, erika bsumek, and david kinkela (oxford: oxford university press, 2013), 137–62. 23 livingstone, “reading the heavens, planting the earth: cultures of british science,” p. 240. 24 steven shapin and simon schaffer, leviathan and the air pump: hobbes, boyle, and the experimental life (princeton, nj: princeton university press, 1985); bruno latour and steve woolgar, laboratory life: the construction of scientific facts (princeton, nj: princeton university press, 1979). 25 see isla forsyth, “the more-than-human geographies of field science,” geography compass 7, no. 8 (2013): 527–39; robert e. kohler and jeremy vetter, “the field,” in a companion to the history of science, ed. bernard lightman (oxford: wiley, 2016), 282–95. 26 robert e. kohler, landscapes and labscapes: exploring the lab-field border in biology, (chicago, il: university of chicago press, 2002). history of meteorology 8 (2017)     8 dwelling and watchful observation.27 furthermore, while much historical analysis of field sites has focused on their definition and expansion on a horizontal plane, an emerging interest in the vertical as a dimension of vision, practice and mobility “takes us away from human habitation into depths and heights in which no one lives (for long) yet which are vital to global economy and polity”.28 it takes us into what siobhan carroll labels the ‘atopia’ of the atmosphere – a space of cultural-economic circulation and ambition, which nonetheless evades attempts at territorial control and domination; an example of spivak’s ‘planetary’ spaces, radically other, which can freely “undo, arrest, deviate or destroy human systems of global circulation with which they become associated”.29 in meteorology, engaging with the three-dimensional space of the atmosphere means engaging with objects and processes that are lively and highly mobile, rather than phenomena which are limited to particular places. the ‘field’ thus becomes something more akin to “a moving assemblage of people, place, and practice, rather than a static and well-defined arena of scientific surveillance”.30 studies of the historical geographies of scientific knowledge are frequently presented in a register of horizontal movement: circulation, diffusion, migration, expansion; often coupled with the ‘flat’ ontologies of actor-network theory, or with the historiographies of european advance across two-dimensional maps of imperial geography. the vertical dimension, as both an object of knowledge and a space of practice, has been largely absent from this spatializing gaze.31 the history of meteorology is an ideal subject with which to explore not just the horizontal expansion and mobility of the sciences, but also their engagements, whether practical or conceptual, with questions of depth, height and volume. recent moves in political geography and international relations to understand how power works through the production, delineation and control of three-dimensional atmospheric spaces points to an important role for historians of the atmospheric sciences in examining the co-production of three-dimensional knowledge and power.32 thinking beyond human actors can likewise offer new analytical possibilities. this might mean engaging more readily with the agency of flora and fauna in the development of knowledges of climate.33 technology has of course played a crucial role in driving developments in meteorology, shaping new practices and opening new fields of atmospheric                                                                                                                 27 naylor, “log books and the law of storms: maritime meteorology and the british admiralty in the nineteenth century,” p. 788. 28 kohler and vetter, “the field,” p. 287-8 29 siobhan carroll, an empire of air and water: uncolonizable space in the british imagination, 1750-1850 (philadelphia, pa: university of pennsylvania press, 2015), p.7; gayatri chakravorty spivak, death of a discipline (new york: columbia university press, 2003). 30 martin mahony and samuel randalls, “weather, climate and the geographical imagination”, in mahony, m. and randalls, s. eds., weather, climate and the geographical imagination: placing atmospheric knowledges. university of pittsburgh press, forthcoming. 31 michael s. reidy, “the most recent orogeny: verticality and why mountains matter,” historical studies in the natural sciences 47, no. 4 (2017): 578–87. 32 see for example stuart elden, “secure the volume: vertical geopolitics and the depth of power,” political geography 34 (2013): 35–51. 33 kirsten greer, “zoogeography and imperial defence: tracing the contours of the nearctic region in the temperate north atlantic, 1838–1880s,” geoforum 65 (2015): 454–64. history of meteorology 8 (2017)     9 vision.34 knowledges of weather and climate have also played key roles in the development of broader socio-technical systems, most notably perhaps in the case of aviation where, functioning as what roger turner calls an ‘infrastructural science’, meteorology quietly participated in the construction of the atmosphere as a traversable space, amid new practices and cultures of observation, forecasting, and risk management.35 there is however much more to be learned about these ‘hidden’ aspects of meteorology, and about the mutual transformations of meteorological science and broader socio-technical systems and spaces. the project of ‘relocating meteorology’ allows us to open out to new sites of knowledge production and to discover new actors in the history of the discipline. theory-builders and institution-builders tend to dominate our histories of meteorology. yet new questions are increasingly being asked, particularly in this journal, about how a broader range of actors contributed to the production of knowledge of weather and climate. how did agriculturalists, engineers, insurance clerks, colonists, military personnel, aviators, medics and others produce new forms of knowledge and put them to work?36 to what extent can we characterise meteorology and climatology as products of encounter and exchange between diverse social and cultural groups? and what do such questions mean for how we think about issues of authority and credibility in the history of the atmospheric sciences?37 renewing the field the papers offered in this themed issue contribute to this broader renewal of the field in a number of ways. rather than with centralized european observatories, we begin in the ‘middle border’ region of the united states, with joseph giacomelli developing the notion of ‘vernacular climatology’ to describe the product of ongoing “negotiations between academics, bureaucrats, technocrats, volunteer observers, agriculturalists, newspapermen, and others”, each concerned with contesting the legitimacy of the emerging sciences of weather and climate, and with questions of scale and locality at the heart of efforts to establish any semblance of scientific credibility.38 pushing further west, kelsey matson examines the place of the yellowstone region at the intersection of new concerns about atmospheric electricity, healthful climates and nationhood, crucially situating the human body as an historically                                                                                                                 34 james r. fleming, inventing atmospheric science: bjerknes, rossby, wexler, and the foundations of modern meteorology (cambridge, ma: mit press, 2016). 35 roger turner, “weathering heights: the emergence of aeronautical meteorology as an infrastructural science” (phd thesis, university of pennsylvania, 2010). 36 james kneale and samuel randalls, “invisible atmospheric knowledges in british insurance companies , 1830-1914,” history of meteorology 6 (2014): 35–52; vladimir janković, “working with weather: atmospheric resources, climate variability and the rise of industrial meteorology, 1950 – 2010,” history of meteorology 7 (2015): 98–111. 37 morgan, “argument, authority and anxiety in the atmospheric sciences.” history of meteorology 6 (2014): 14-16. 38 joseph giacomelli, “unsettling gilded-age science: vernacular climatology and meteorology in the ‘middle border’,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 15–34. history of meteorology 8 (2017)     10 important instrument in sensing and registering meteorological phenomena.39 thus, this paper opens new research directions in the history of meteorology by connecting it with an emerging interest in the history of the body as a site of knowledge production. our attention then turns to north-west europe – paradoxically perhaps, given the region’s centrality to extant accounts of meteorology’s history. yet kevin donnelly makes the provocative case that despite its geographic centrality, the city of brussels was decidedly marginal in terms of early nineteenth century scientific culture. he suggests that this marginality, and the peculiar political and economic context of belgium, allowed adolph quetelet to position the city as a hub for a nascent meteorological internationalism, which endures in various forms to this day. the curiosities of belgian society likewise provided the raw materials for quetelet’s new approach to social statistics which, donnelly suggests, was crucial in the emergence of a non-deterministic conception of a global climate system.40 thus, donnelly highlights the making of nineteenth century internationalism as a new site and cultural infrastructure for the production of scientific knowledge, which allowed quetelet to shake up the scientific hierarchies of positivist scientific culture. we then move more concertedly into the ‘margins’ of european meteorological endeavour and its colonial frontiers. meredith mckittrick offers an important new history of the trans-imperial circulation of the controversial idea of ‘reprecipitation’, which informed a number of colonial schemes to modify the dry climates of colonial possessions. while a lot of scholarly attention has recently fallen on apparent prefigurations of current concerns over climate change and modification, mckittrick points to the “limitations of reading the history of meteorology and climatology ‘backwards,’ by looking for the precursors of ideas that are now widely accepted”. doing so risks obscuring “significant realms of scientific and popular debate from historians’ view”. instead, she suggests that historians of meteorology pay equal attention to the progenitors of ideas which we may appear now as dead-ends or non-starters, in order to understand historicallyand spatially-situated meteorological cultures in all their variety and fullness.41 we subsequently turn to three case studies from the history of german meteorology from the late-nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century – a country which, despite boasting a number of meteorological pioneers and being the powerhouse of nineteenth to twentieth century continental europe, has been underrepresented so far in english-speaking historiography. all three papers deal with the shifting imperial contexts which shaped the development of german meteorology. robert-jan wille reconstructs the horizontal and vertical expansion of meteorological practice through wladimir köppen’s aerology, showing how the developing contours of german national and imperial power shaped the evolution of a world-wide network for studying the atmosphere in three dimensions. penelope k. hardy                                                                                                                 39 kelsey matson, “the ozone of patriotism”: meteorology, electricity, and the body in the nineteenth-century yellowstone region,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 35–53. 40 kevin donnelly, “redeeming belgian science: periodic phenomena and global physics in brussels, 18251853” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 54–73. 41 meredith mckittrick, “theories of “reprecipitation” and climate change in the settler colonial world,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 74–94. history of meteorology 8 (2017)     11 picks up the baton to illustrate how in interwar germany, with its empire taken away, national pride was re-asserted through oceanic expeditions which sought to re-inscribe german geophysical might onto the map of international and imperial science. finally, philipp lehmann examines the terrestrial repercussions of germany’s post-imperial moment, showing how the loss of colonial field sites shaped the evolution of climatological ideas, and contributed to a growing emphasis on regional particularity and ‘colonial revisionism’ amid a broader “postcolonial longing for the overseas field” within german geography.42 together, these papers innovatively constitute an exemplary contribution of how to write global histories of national scientific communities, by placing the history of german meteorology in the imperial context of international competition. similar imperial and colonial themes are present in fiona williamson and clive wilkinson’s paper on the development of meteorology in singapore and hong kong in the late-nineteenth and early-twentieth century. their comparative analysis shows convincingly how the differential development of meteorology in different colonial settings was shaped not just by different atmospheric conditions, but by different political and economic contexts. the work contributes to a growing scholarship on meteorology in the region, where contact between different imperial and cultural formations shaped a set of unstable, rivalrous scientific networks, which nonetheless produced important contributions to meteorological theory and practice.43 we then fly south to another outpost of ‘british’ meteorology, with matthew henry examining the role of meteorology in the interwar development of australianew zealand air routes. henry highlights the challenges of trans-colonial cooperation, as efforts were made to standardise practices and procedures, amid attempts to gain credibility amongst a crucial set of users of meteorological information – pilots. the paper is a further illustration of the often-unacknowledged centrality of meteorology in the production of threedimensional airspace, and contributes to an increasingly vibrant and sophisticated historiography of australasian meteorology.44 finally, we return to a major meteorological metropole, to illustrate how the project of ‘relocating meteorology’ can inform and transform the study of major centres of political power and scientific influence in europe. janet-martin nielsen offers an important analysis of the significance of new technologies in relocating meteorology as a publicand serviceoriented science in post-war britain. focusing on the establishment of numerical weather prediction at the meteorological office, nielsen describes anxieties to establish and perform the objectivity of meteorological science – to not just produce better predictions, but to demonstrate their basis in the machinic objectivity of the computer simulation. nielsen’s is                                                                                                                 42 robert-jan wille, “colonizing the free atmosphere: wladimir köppen’s ‘aerology’, the german maritime observatory, and the emergence of a trans-imperial network of weather balloons and kites, 1873-1906,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 95–123; penelope k. hardy, “meteorology as nationalism on the german atlantic expedition, 1925-1927,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 124–144; philipp lehmann, losing the field: franz thorbecke and (post-)colonial climatology in germany,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 145– 158. 43 fiona williamson and clive wilkinson, “asian extremes: experience, exchange and meteorological knowledge in hong kong and singapore c.1840-1939,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 159–178. 44 matthew henry, “assembling the weather: expertise, authority and the negotiation of trans-tasman aviation forecasts” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 179–201. history of meteorology 8 (2017)     12 thus an important study of how notions of modernity, uncertainty and injurious subjectivity have shaped key transitions in meteorological practice, and have informed enduring concerns about the science’s predictive abilities and social utility which are laced through so many of the preceding analyses. as such, it is a fitting – if seemingly geographical paradoxical – way to conclude our efforts here to relocate meteorology.45 we are pleased to also include a special supplementary section offered by james r. fleming. his short text accompanies an historical film from 1960s soviet russia, which proffered a vision of a future 2017 where continental-scale climate control has re-shaped global environments and national fortunes.46 it is fitting to revisit such a vision in the year of its prophesised becoming, and to use it to point the way to other geographies and cultures which are as-yet underrepresented in the historiography of meteorology and climatology. what next? relocating meteorology as a work-in-progress as with all historiographical manifestos and intellectual projects, ‘relocating meteorology’ is more an open-ended frontier than an accomplished achievement. the selection of about ten papers can hardly do justice to the current renewal of the field nor saturate the future directions which may be pursued. there is still a lot of work to be done by historians willing to undertake new challenges of the field. the history of meteorology remains a largely euro-centric business, despite our effort to examine the making of meteorology amid the contact zones between european empires and the rest of the world. while the historiography of north america and the caribbean is rapidly developing, we still do not have complete accounts of the history of meteorology in vast regions of the world, such as in asia, africa, latin america, the pacific world and the middle east. there has been an emergent interest in the history of exploration of glaciers, poles, and mountains like the alps in histories of european meteorology, but large parts of europe itself remain overlooked, such as southern and eastern europe. even france has remained somewhat marginal, with the exception of fabien locher’s work.47 a major challenge to a truly global history of meteorology is the national organization of meteorological archives in the twentieth century, which erases the international and interconnected nature of meteorology in the nineteenth century – and before. hopefully, it is no longer a distant utopia to think of intersecting meteorological archives by building on emerging techniques in the digital humanities for the preservation and analysis of archival materials across the world. this could become an interesting arena of future development of the field at the intersection of digital and environmental humanities.                                                                                                                 45 janet martin-nielsen, “scientific forecasting? performing objectivity at the uk’s meteorological office, 1960s-1970s,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 202–221. 46 james r. fleming, “in the year 2017: a soviet fantasy of the future,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 222– 224. 47 locher, fabien. le savant et la tempête: étudier l’atmosphère et prévoir le temps au xixe siècle (rennes: presses universitaires de rennes, 2008). history of meteorology 8 (2017)     13 as work on the colonial histories of meteorology and climatology accelerates, it is vital that imperial narratives of the inexorable, beneficent spread of western science and technology are not simply reproduced. few studies of colonial meteorology have yet offered full analyses of how european meteorological ideas and practices interacted with indigenous knowledge systems. in part this seems to be because the story was often one of european scientists simply ignoring local knowledges of weather and climate, often to the detriment of european agricultural fortunes.48 efforts to manipulate the climate of european colonies have offered interesting insights into the status anxieties of meteorologists who sought to distance themselves from the ‘superstitions’ of both settler and indigenous populations.49 yet tracing more subtle interactions between different knowledge systems, and recovering voices expunged from institutional archives, will require methodological innovation. a great deal of innovation in the history of meteorology can come from the intersection between environmental history and sts, two fields that are increasingly converging.50 in this respect, several questions remain to be answered: what was the role of natural environments in the processes of transmission and transformation of climate knowledge? what was the role of the circulation of standardised forms, instruments and data in the production of infrastructural networks and new environments? how did these systems become sites of contestation over scientific authority, trustworthiness and risk? following the broader circulation of technologies, resources, and the intermediaries that made them possible may permit new answers to the question of the enduring importance of space and place in the history of meteorology. one such way into such dynamics may be to investigate the lives and careers of not only the institution-builders and the knowledge-leaders, but of those who were drawn into the ranks of those institutions from a range of cultural backgrounds, performing the monotonous work of observation and data processing, feeding local weather into the centres of colonial climatic calculation.51 following the ‘traces’52 of such lives may offer a richer picture of the development of meteorology and climatology in the contact zones of european imperial expansion.53 and in order to develop a more expansive understanding of “meteorology,” a great deal of work is necessary to reveal the role of such cultural intermediaries, middle men and women, and their role in the broader development of meteorological knowledge. a truly “relocated” history of meteorology will not be complete until we fully understand how                                                                                                                 48 chris o’brien, “imported understandings: calendars, weather, and climate in tropical australia, 1870s1940s,” in climate, science, and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, ed. james beattie, emily o’gorman, and matthew henry (basingstoke: palgrave macmillan, 2014), 195–212. 49 james beattie, “science, religion, and drought: rainmaking experiments and prayers in north otago, 18891911,” in climate, science, and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, ed. james beattie, emily o’gorman, and matthew henry (basingstoke: palgrave macmillan, 2014), 137–55. 50 sara b. pritchard, finn arne jorgensen, and dolly jorgensen, eds. new natures: joining environmental history with science and technology studies (pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press, 2013). 51 such work would build upon extant literature on the role of the ‘technician’ in the history of science. see steven shapin, “the invisible technician,” american scientist 77, no. 6 (1989): 554–63; rob iliffe, “technicians,” notes and records of the royal society 62 (2008): 3–16. 52 on biography in the archival margins, see cheryl mcgeachan, “historical geography ii: traces remain,” progress in human geography, 2016, 1–14. 53 mary louise pratt, “arts of the contact zone,” profession, 1991, 33–40. history of meteorology 8 (2017)     14 european weather knowledge has been shaped by the wider forces of empire, race, gender, class and religious belief. the historical relocation of meteorology was not just a function of the expansion of formal state power. religious bodies, missionaries, soldiers, medics and various others contributed to the expansion of meteorological networks, and further work is required to understand these groups, their interactions, conflicts, and ‘intermediaries’.54 in developing such work, we can continue to decentre the nation-state as the subject and unit of our analyses, to build a more inclusive and global history of meteorology.                                                                                                                 54 cushman, “the imperial politics of hurricane prediction: from calcutta and havana to manila and galveston, 1839-1900”; jamie l. pietruska, “hurricanes, crops, and capital: the meteorological infrastructure of american empire in the west indies,” the journal of the gilded age and progressive era 15, no. 4 (2016): 418–45. microsoft word 2. persson, hadley.doc history of meteorology 3 (2006) 17 hadley’s principle: understanding and misunderstanding the trade winds anders o. persson department for research and development swedish meteorological and hydrological institute se 601 71 norrköping, sweden anders.persson@smhi.se old knowledge will often be rediscovered and presented under new labels, causing much confusion and impeding progress—tor bergeron.1 introduction in may 1735 a fairly unknown englishman, george hadley, published a groundbreaking paper, “on the cause of the general trade winds,” in the philosophical transactions of the royal society. his path to fame was long and it took 100 years to have his ideas accepted by the scientific community. but today there is a “hadley crater” on the moon, the convectively overturning in the tropics is called “the hadley cell,” and the climatological centre of the uk meteorological office “the hadley centre.” by profession a lawyer, born in london, george hadley (1685-1768) had in 1735 just became a member of the royal society. he was in charge of the society’s meteorological work which consisted of providing instruments to foreign correspondents and of supervising, collecting and scrutinizing the continental network of meteorological observations2. this made him think about the variations in time and geographical location of the surface pressure and its relation to the winds3. already in a paper, possibly written before 1735, hadley carried out an interesting and far-sighted discussion on the winds, which he found “of so uncertain and variable nature”: hadley’s principle 18 …concerning the cause of the trade-winds, that for the same cause the motion of the air will not be naturally in a great circle, for any great space upon the surface of the earth anywhere, unless in the equator itself, but in some other line, and, in general, all winds, as they come nearer the equator will become more easterly, and as they recede from it, more and more westerly, unless some other cause intervene4. the opening sentence of hadley’s 1735 paper has become a classic: “i think the causes of the general trade winds have not been fully explained by any of those who have written on that subject…” what hadley had in mind was that all the theories so far did not explain why the trades blow from the north-east and south-east rather than from due east. this might seem to be a minor detail, but was the main point of argument for almost a century. views on atmospheric circulation around 1700 the need to map and understand the general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans became an important issue in the 16th century with the increased shipping and the exploration and the marine routes to asia and the new world. early ideas on the trade winds by 1600 it was known that around 30º latitude the climate was rather dry with weak winds. south of this “torrid zone” were regular north-easterly winds, the trade winds (fr. alizées, germ. passatwinde) and to the north irregular winds from a westerly direction. this pattern appeared to mirror itself south of the equator with steadily southeast trade wind. when scientists tried to understand the general circulation their discussion centred early on the trade winds. thanks to their steadiness they were assumed to be the easiest one to explain5. galileo galilee (1564-1642) saw the trade winds as a consequence of the failure of the earth’s gaseous envelop to “keep up” with the speed of the earth’s rotation. the earth is rotating fastest at the lowest latitudes, the air and the water are lagging behind and an earthbound observer experiences a westward-directed flow. the eastward directed flow at the mid-latitudes was caused by the opposite mechanism: the earth was rotating slower and the air and water “went ahead.” a similar argument was used by johannes kepler (1571-1630) to explain the westward motion of the tropical oceans6. to both galileo and kepler the rotation of the earth not only explained the trade winds, the trade winds were themselves a manifestation of the rotation of the earth. the british debate about the trade winds in 1685 a debate about the general circulation of the atmosphere started in the royal society in england. because of its sea faring occupation there was no other country where the wind and weather was more discussed than in england. a dr garden enthusiastically promoted galileo’s idea that trade winds “lagged behind” because the air due to the sun’s heating became lighter, rose and lost touch with the earth’s surface7. at about the same, on the other side of the channel, the french scientist edme mariotte (1620-84) also repeated galileo’s hypothesis, but history of meteorology 3 (2006) 19 explained the tendency of the wind to approach the equator from the north-east and south-east as a consequence of the sun’s varying path between the equinoxes8. the renowned astronomer edmond halley (1656-1742) now entered the debate and suggested as the main mechanism the diurnal displacement from east to west of the sun’s heating in the tropical belt. the deviation of the trade winds from straight east was due to the meridional flow of dense air toward the latitude of maximal radiative heating9. in subsequent discussions robert hooke (1635-1703) invoked the centrifugal force of the earth’s rotation to explain the equatorward component of the trade winds. by this the debate ended, halley and hooke became occupied with other matters and no new ideas came forward for almost half a century. the “hadley principle” is born the novelty of george hadley’s explanation was to take into consideration the diurnal motion of the earth around its axis, rather than the sun’s apparent motion due to the earth’s rotation: for let us suppose the air in every part to keep an equal pace with the earth in its diurnal motion; in which case there will be no relative motion of the surface of the earth and air, and consequently no wind; then by the action of the sun on the parts about the equator, and the rarefaction of the air proceeding there from, let the air be drawn thither from the n. and s. parts. the circumference of latitude circles at the equinoxes have an absolute difference of 2083 miles compared to the equatorial circle, to which they relate as 917 to 1000, which indicated the difference in absolute velocity: from which it follows, that the air, as it moves from the tropics towards the equator, having a less velocity than the parts of the earth it arrived at, will have a relative motion contrary to that of the diurnal motion of the earth in those parts, which being combined with the motion towards the equator, a n.e. wind be produced on this side of the equator, and s.e. on the other… this is what the german meteorologist adolph sprung 1880 would name “hadley’s principle.” by then, 125 years after its publication, it only just started to become widely accepted by the meteorological community. the disregard of hadley’s work the main reason for the slow appraisal of “hadley’s principle” was that frictionless, inertial motion in a rotating system was then (as it is now) difficult to comprehend intuitively. attempts in the 18th and 19th century to use the atmosphere as a test-bed laboratory was complicated because a lack of observations, but also because of too simplistic applications of mechanical principles. another reason why it took so long for hadley to get personal credit was that he was constantly confused with two other scientists. one was edmond halley, the other george’s own elder brother, john hadley (1682-1744), who was famous in his own right for astronomical contributions, among them the “hadley sextant.” the fact that the former had also provided a similar, but less elaborated explanation of the trade-winds contributed further to the confusion. hadley’s principle 20 unfortunately for george hadley, seven years before his paper was published, halley’s 1686 paper found its way into chamber’s cyclopaedia where the section “physical cause of winds” was copied straight from the last five pages of halley’s text.10 even if “hadley’s principle” initially was largely ignored by the scientific community, gradually during the next 100 years it would, as we will see, appear once and again, discovered or re-discovered by other scientists. if they had been influenced by hadley directly or indirectly, or came to think about the mechanism themselves remains unknown. the first time the “hadley principle” was brought forward was only a few years after the publication the transactions and the author, who was scottish, was no doubt very familiar with the publications of the royal society. maclaurin and d’alembert colin maclaurin (1698-1746) argued, without mathematics, in his 1740 work “de causa physica fluxus et refluxus maris” (on the cause of tides) that the sea currents were affected by “the uneven velocity of a body carried by the earth in its daily motion around its axis”: if water be carried from the south toward the north, either by the general motion of the tide or by any other cause whatever, the course of the water will thereby be deflected little by little toward the east, because the water at a prior time was carried by the diurnal motion toward this sea with a greater velocity than pertains to the more northerly place. conversely, if the water be carried from the north toward the south, the course of the water, on account of a similar cause, will be deflected toward the west. from this source i suspect various phenomena of the motion of the sea to arise. maclaurin was aware that this explanation could be extended to other motions in the atmosphere and the sea. “but it is not possible to go into this in any detail.”11 maclaurin’s paper was one of the prize winning contributions to a competition launched by the french royal academy of science. this might have inspired the berlin academy of sciences in 1746 to announce a prize for anybody who could determine “the nature and the law” which the wind ought to obey in case the earth was covered by an ocean. the solution had to be presented in a form that allowed predictions. the winning contribution, by jean le rond d’alembert (1717-83), was published in 1746 under the title “reflexions sur la cause generale des vents.”12 d’alembert made two a priori assumptions which for a modern reader seem completely off the mark: he disregarded the effects of solar heating and the earth’s rotation. the winds were supposed to be solely the result only of the attractive forces of the sun and the moon. assuming that these forces were perpendicular to the earth’s axis of rotation, d’alembert developed equations expressing the resulting oscillations. in a final part he considered the effect of landmasses, in particular mountains.13 d’alembert’s approach must be understood from the background of the success of the newtonian concepts, which had been able to explain celestial mechanics, the shape of the earth, and above all, the dynamics of tides without invoking effects of thermal heating. although d’alembert stated correctly that the rotation of the earth has no effect on the velocity of the wind, he never seemed to have realized the modifying effect on already moving objects. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 21 this was the first attempt to express the motions of the atmosphere in mathematical terms; a new fruitful trend in meteorology which would see its major “milestones” in w. ferrel’s equations of motion in 1860, l.f. richardson’s numerical hand-calculations in 1922 and n.a. phillips computer based general circulation experiment in 1956. together with denis diderot (1713-1784), d’alembert was instrumental in the creation of the legendary grande encyclopedie. originally only a project to translate chamber’s cyclopaedia into french, it soon took off in its own direction. it is generally regarded as a progressive enterprise supporting the enlightenment, common sense and new knowledge. however, in the case of the understanding of the atmosphere’s general circulation the grande encyclopedie succeeded less well. the section on “winds” was a straight translation of the chamber’s version. this is the reason why halley’s 1686 explanation of the trade winds remained the most widely known internationally almost to the beginning of the 19th century. however, in the middle of the section there is an extensive insertion, most likely by d’alembert, outlining his own explanation. it found its way into several books on natural sciences in the 18th century14 and as late as 1859 d’alembert’s outdated 1746 explanation provided the basis for a french paper on the general circulation.15 unknown to the readers of all these encyclopaedias was that halley himself did not quite believe his own theory. when one of his colleagues, the mathematician john wallis (1616-1703) admitted that he could not understand why the sun’s heat should cause a westerly oriented rather than easterly oriented halley, unable to find new convincing arguments, started to doubt his own hypothesis: “your questioning my hypothesis for solving the trade winds makes me less confident of the truth thereof, and i should be glad to see some other notion where by more of the appearances would be naturally solved.”16 but these doubts would remain private to the loss to later generations through the 18th century. in the mid-18th century “hadley’s principle” slowly started to become appreciated, obviously independently of hadley. it first happened in the other end of continental europe, in königsberg (today’s kaliningrad) and by their most renowned son, the philosopher immanuel kant. immanuel kant (1724-1804) it is easy to forget that kant during most of his professional life worked as a scientist or academic in physics, mathematics and earth sciences17. his philosophical works, in particular critique of pure reason, on which his fame rests, came about quite late in his life, when he was in his 50’s. in the period 1747-56, when kant was 24 to 32 years old he published several works on kinetic energy, the possible changes of the earth’s rotation, the age of the earth and the mechanisms of earthquakes. in 1755 he outlined a theory of the formation of the universe, in particular the solar system. this would later be further developed by laplace in his 1799 celestial mechanics into the “kant-laplace nebular hypothesis.” kant’s texts on meteorological problems, in particular on winds, are found mainly in three sources: (a) ”neue anmerkungen zur erläuterung der theorie der winde” (new comments to clarify the theory of winds), a pamphlet of about 15-20 pages published in königsberg in april 1756, consisting of five “comments” with the following headings: (1) differential heating drives the wind as long as the heating persists; (2) the heated air replaces the cold air; (3) the wind from the equator to the pole becomes increasingly westerly due to the rotation of the earth; (4) the easterly trade winds for the same reason; (5) the monsoon is also hadley’s principle 22 explained by the 3rd cause. kant reached the conclusion that there existed an upper current directed towards the pole. weather is caused when this upper wind comes into conflict with the surface wind. he noted, as others before him (and after him would do), that the wind locally tended to veer from e to s to w18. the second source, physikalische geographie (physical geography) is a texbook comprising 158 pages out of which 17 deal with the atmosphere general circulation19. it deals with the atmosphere circulation in five chapters with the following headings: on the trade winds; seaand land breezes; monsoons and other periodic winds; cause of the monsoons; yet some rules of the variations of wind. the text was published at the end of kant’s life, in 1802 but was probably written twenty years earlier. kant had by then established himself as a renowned philosopher and a new book by him about the earth, oceans and atmosphere was likely to attract attention. the third source, kant’s handwritten lecture notes from 1756 to 1796, have been published in several editions 1838-39, 1868, 1898, 1911 and 192520. the part dealing with meteorology occupies about ten pages and contains the following chapters: (on the winds; law of the trade winds from the rotation of the earth; a law on the monsoons due to the same reason; some scattered comments on the law of winds. meteorological discussions are also found in kant’s so called “vorkritischen schriften.”21 kant starts by refuting the old galilean notion about the tropical air “lagging behind” the earth’s rotation. like wallis he found halley’s explanation of the motion of the maximum solar heating from east to west “badly chosen” since it would rather cause a diurnal change of wind between west in the morning and east in the evening, with calm conditions in between at midday and midnight. instead he was designing an explanation of his own and he confessed in his notes: “i am right here busy to renew, the old theory, though with one added condition only to make it mechanical possible…this rule, which as far as i know, not anyone has considered, may be seen as a key to a general theory of the winds.”22 from kant’s handwritten notes we are able to reconstruct, also graphically, how he, on the blackboard at the university in königsberg, outlined the deflective effect of the earth’s rotation, his “key to the general theory of the winds” (see figure 1): n and s design the two poles, w to o the equatorial circle. two latitude circles are marked as mn and hi, and the remaining are meridians. if there is no wind in a so it has no other motion than the one which is appropriate for the earth’s surface in this point a, that is the half of what the latitude circle hi covers in 12 hours from west to east. from now on let us assume that the air in a moves to b along a meridian, and let us imagine that this increasing north wind in the same time could follow the curve ea from west to east due to the rotation of the earth. then follows, if we disregard all obstacles that could meet the air during its course, is on a moving earth would not be at b, but at c at the end of this time, so that dc=ea and cb the difference of similar latitude circles, because the air with its intrinsic westerly velocity of the place, from whence it came, can cover in the same time the curve dc=ea from west to east, since the earth meanwhile at this latitude has described the curve db. since it does not matter if the air moves with respect to the earth, or the earth moves with respect to the air, a combined movement will follow along a certain diagonal curve ac, of which the sides ab and bc represent those northerly history of meteorology 3 (2006) 23 wind velocities, and the difference of the motion at both latitude circles, respectively. kant then proceeded to apply the same reasoning for winds moving poleward into the westerlies: every south wind has on our hemisphere a tendency as it progresses to turn into a southwest wind, and does indeed so when the conditions are present, as is shown in the previous case. if the velocity is the same as before and it starts in point b with the velocity ba, so will the westerly velocity, which it due to the rotation of the earth around its axis carries with it, cause that it will in the same time cover the curve ag=db and at the end itself be at g… the more the air moves away from the equator the more it is deflected until it becomes straight from west. fig. 1. graphical reconstruction from kant’s handwritten notes of his explanation of the deflective effect of the earth’s rotation. one has to enter the vast field of kantian research to find out how much impact kant’s ideas on the general circulation of the atmosphere had on his contemporaries, for example how widely his 1756 pamphlet “neue anmerkungen der winde” was read, and how his lectures in natural philosophy at the königsberg university were received by the students. throughout the 19th century there are, however, occasional references to kant in the meteorological literature,23 mostly related to the publication of his 1802 book on physical geography. hadley’s principle 24 late 18 th century scientists laplace in the late 18th century “hadley’s principle” became more and more appreciated, sometimes with references to hadley. one main promoter of “hadley’s principle” in the second half of the 18th century was no other than pierre simon de laplace (1749-1827). laplace had in 1775 set out to develop what would become known as “laplace tidal equations,” a rigorous mathematical description of the motions of the atmosphere and ocean, taking the rotation of the earth into account. the latter was not least important because laplace had reached the conclusion in contrast to d’alembert that the rotation of the earth had an importance of its own, not only for changing the diurnal position of the sun and moon. considering that the planet has a rotation like a liquid, the velocity of a molecule is supposed to be the same in the direction of a latitude, its angular velocity increasing or decreasing if it moves away or approaches the equator, so that it changes the meridian of this motion when it changes latitude.24 the extension to the atmosphere came in 1796 with laplace’s publication of his semi-popular presentation on celestial mechanics: …the attraction of the sun and the moon does not produce, neither or the sea, nor in the atmosphere any constant motion from east to west, like the one, called trade-winds, that is observed in the atmosphere between the tropical circles. they are caused by something else, here is the most probable… laplace envisaged two opposite currents of air, one in the lower part of the atmosphere and the other one in the upper part of the atmosphere. however, the real velocity of the air, due to the rotation of the earth, becomes lower when it is much closer to the pole. thus it should when advancing towards the equator, rotate more slowly than the corresponding parts of the earth, and the bodies placed on the earth’s surface should hit it with the excess of their velocity and feel as a reaction, a resistance counter to their motion of rotation. thus, for an observer who believes himself to be immobile, the air appears to blow in the opposite direction to the one of the rotation of the earth, that is to say from east to west, this is indeed the direction of the trade-winds.25 in his traité de mécanique celeste (1799) laplace would repeat, with renewed emphasis and in indirect polemic with d’alembert’, that the trade winds are not caused by the gravitational attraction from the sun and the moon. immanuel kant and simon de laplace overlap historically and scientifically (the kantlaplace nebular theory), but they never met or exchanged letters, and there are no indications that laplace ever read kant’s works, in particular those dealing with meteorological problems. laplace mentioned in his preface26 that he was inspired by newton, euler and bernoulli , but most by d’alembert and maclaurin, he might of course have come to think about the trade wind explanation completely on his own, just as kant did and another contemporary scientist, jean andré de luc. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 25 de luc and dalton in his “idées sur la météorologie” from 178727 the swiss scientist, jean-andré de luc de luc (1727-1817) explained the prevalence of southwesterly and northeasterly winds as a consequence of the earth’s rotation on north-south air displacements caused by the sun’s differential heating: if the air leaving the equator was calm there, i.e. if its movement is the same as the movement of the surface of the earth, when it arrives at our climate, and if it still has conserved a part of its movement in this sense; then it should go quicker than the surface of the earth in the same meaning being from west to east, and become south-west. the inverse cause change, for us to north-east the winds from north.” it is possible that de luc, who was a frequent visitor to england where he held influential contacts, had read or heard about hadley’s paper. however, it is more likely that he had the idea from de laplace’s 1775 articles or might have come to think of it himself. that was at least the opinion of another prominent scientist, john dalton. but the first time george hadley gets explicitly associated with the explanation of the trade-winds, without being confused with edmond halley or john hadley, seems to be by the english chemist and natural philosopher john dalton (1766-1844). although dalton’s fame today rests almost entirely on his atomic theory, he carried out a wide range of research. in 1787 he began keeping a meteorological journal which he continued all his life. in his 1793 book meteorological observations and essays he outlined an explanation of how, “the effect of the earth’s rotation to produce, or rather to accelerate the relative velocity of winds, being as the difference, or more strictly, to the [sine] of the latitude…increases in approaching the poles.” dalton credited de luc as “the only person, as far as i know, who have suggested the idea of the earth’s rotation altering the direction of the wind.” only when dalton’s book was in its final stages did he find out that the trade-winds “had been explained on the very same principles and in the same manner” by his country-man george hadley. dalton expressed his surprise and perhaps irritation that halley’s 1686 theory, in spite of being “inadequate and immechanical,” had become “almost universally adapted” and could be found in “several modern productions of great repute… on the other hand, g. hadley esq, published in a subsequent volume of said transactions a rational and satisfactory explanation of the trade-winds; but where else shall we find it?” 28 dalton re-issued his book in 1834 with few added notes, none of which dealt with atmospheric circulation.29 lampadius and brandes another expression of the growing interest in “natural philosophy” was the slowly increasing number of meteorological textbooks. one such was systematische grundriss der atmosphärologie by w. a. e. lampadius (1772-1842) at the university of freiberg in saxony. lampadius refuted the galilean-mariotte model and acknowledged kant and de luc who had quite correctly “and as far as i know” been the first to formulate the basic law about the influence of the rotation of the earth. lampadius also made the important point that “the earth’s rotation can only change the wind not create it.”30 hadley’s principle 26 heinrich w. brandes (1777-1834) was professor in breslau (wroclaw) and the father of synoptic meteorology. he was aware of the role of the earth’s rotation and in his 1820 textbook, beiträge zur witterungskunde, correctly credited hadley for his 1735 trade wind explanation. when there is a flow of cold air towards the south, it must appear to use, not as a north wind, but as a north-east wind, because the rotation of the earth gives our region a faster velocity to the east than the polar regions….i have no doubt that this explanation is the right one.”31 while discussing the wind and pressure differences between la rochelle and bordeaux, brandes was close to discovering the geostrophic wind law32. however, the meteorologist who really put george hadley’s name on the meteorological map was a student of brandes, a scientist who would dominate meteorology not only in germany, but also in europe for more than four decades. germany’s dominating meteorologist heinrich w. dove (1804-1879) published more than 300 papers, not only in meteorology but also in experimental physics, especially optics and electromagnetism. by his contemporaries he was hailed as the “greatest meteorologist of our time” and “the father of present day meteorology.” professor at the university in berlin, lecturer at several civilian and military schools, a member of the prussian academy of science, and director of the prussian meteorological institute, he exerted a strong, sometimes dictatorial, influence on the meteorological debate. dove’s early career when he was only 18 years of age, dove entered h.w. brandes’ institution at the university of breslau in 1822. after a couple of years at the berlin university, dove moved in 1826 to university of königsberg to work as a “privatdozent.” it is here, in a contribution to the leading german scientific journal annalen der physik, he presented what would be known alternatively as “dove’s law of turning,” ”dove’s wind law,” or “the law of gyration.” based on a series of observations in the course of twelve days in königsberg, from 25 september to 6 october 1826, dove inferred the existence of a law-bound, clockwise variation of the wind. but “dove’s law” was just a reflection of the typical wind changes in the extratropical westerlies for locations south of the main storm track. since most of continental europe was south of this track it was easy to find confirmations of the “law” from seamen, weather amateurs, renowned philosophers and scientists33. dove invokes the rotation of the earth when dove’s attempt to establish mathematical-statistical equations for his “wind law” failed he turned to dynamical arguments. according to dove all wind systems (the trade winds, the monsoons and the westerlies) were “necessary and simple consequences of the same fundamental causes,” the effect of the rotation of the earth. in 1831, in a paper in annalen, that would mark the real start of his scientific career, he explained the monsoon wind systems as a consequence of the earth rotation34. in 1835 he used the same mechanism to underpin the “wind history of meteorology 3 (2006) 27 law “35 in an equally influential article on the effects of the earth’s rotation on the atmospheric flow. dove imagined air parcels lined up in north-south direction. by some impetus they were brought into meridional motion. those air parcels closest to the observer would arrive first and have had least time to be affected by the earth rotation, those arriving from further away would have had time to be more deflected. air parcels arriving from n would gradually arrive from a more ne directed those from the s from an increasingly sw direction. air parcels further away would have become even more deflected and arrive as e respectively w winds. this led dove to postulate two major air flows, one warm south-westerly, one cold and north-easterly36. did kant influence dove? dove spent 1825-27 at the university in königsberg, where kant once had lectured. at least two of kant’s works containing meteorological discussions, anmerkungen and physikalische geographie, were available in dove’s time. they contained all the ideas that dove promoted so forcefully: the typical veering of the wind, the idea about two contesting air masses and the effect of the earth’s rotation. on the other hand kant’s anmerkungen did not seem to have had any impact on the scientific community until it was published in connection with kant’s collected works later in the 19th century physikalische geographie was published in 1802, but it is not known how widely it had found readers. brandes, dove’s professor in breslau, as late as 1820 did not seem to have been aware of kant’s contributions. in 1846 dove claimed that he only recently had became aware of kant’s meteorological texts: “this theory [the law of the turning] is partly, as i have seen later, briefly hinted at, although in a place where i least had looked for it, namely by kant in his physical geography.”37 there is nothing to suggest that he was not telling the truth. that cannot quite be said about the priority controversy he was involved in nearly ten years earlier. dove’s polemic with dalton raises hadley to fame in the first paragraph of his influential 1835 paper dove had exaggerated the importance of his finding by neglecting any contributions from anybody else: “…it must seem strange that since 1685, in which year halley published his theory of the trade-winds, consequently for 150 years, not a step [emphasis added] has been made towards a general solution of the question.” when dove’s article two years later was translated into english and published in the september 1837 issue of philosophical magazine under the title “the influence of the rotation of the earth on the currents of its atmosphere; being outlines of a general theory of the winds,” it caught the eyes of the ailing john dalton. after seeing dove’s bombastic priority claim, he sent a letter to the editor-in-chief38: hadley’s principle 28 notice relative to the theory of winds by john dalton, d.c.l., f.r.s. to richard taylor, esq dear friend manchester, sept 5th 1837 i published a theory of the trade winds, &c, as mr dove has published, it was forty-four years ago, as may be seen in my meteorology, 1793 and 1834. it was first published by g. hadley, esq, in 1735, as i afterwards learnt. it is astonishing to find how the true theory should have stood out so long. —john dalton dalton’s letter was published in the next (october) issue of philosophical magazine. it soon reached the editor of annalen der physik, where it was published together with a long reply by dove. at about this time dove was busy editing a collection of his most important papers with an added chapter on the general circulation of the atmosphere39 contained numerous references to hadley40. those parts where hadley was mentioned half a dozen times were reprinted in annalen together with a long-rambling justification (where hadley is mentioned another seven times): “my theory has with hadley’s that in common, or rather borrowed from it, that the most important moment is the different rotation velocities at different latitudes…” the reason why he in his previous work never mentioned hadley was, dove explained, because he was so wellknown: “it is unnecessary in a scientific journal to mention what everybody already knows and no other theory than his can have been alluded to.” he then reminded the readers that neither hadley’s, dalton’s, nor anybody else’s work contained a “turning law.” the article ends: as i am convinced that i have never deliberately kept silent about what others have already published with respect to subjects i have investigated, so i believed i could avert the suspicion that i was seeking to appropriate the intellectual property of a man of such statue that was beyond the reach of my praise or criticism. from now on dove never failed to mention hadley’s name in connection with his own “law of the turning.” in 1857 he mentioned hadley several times in a talk to the berlin academy of science and in a paper he submitted to the french academy of science.41 in his 1861 book gesetz der stürme (the law of the storms), dove duly credited hadley. indeed, dove championed hadley’s principle so persistently that it gradually became known as the “hadley-dove principle.” however, when he was confronted with william ferrel’s (correct) analysis of the deflective effect, he tactically but quite erroneously interpreted it as an “extension of the principle of hadley’s theory.” this caused some consternation among dove’s many followers who were convinced that ferrel was outright wrong. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 29 the heydays of hadley’s principle dove made hadley known in britain until his death in 1879 dove remained a dominating personality in european meteorology; his ideas were particularly well received in the united kingdom. throughout most of the 19th century there was no meteorologist in britain with any interest or qualification in theoretical or dynamical meteorology. the leading authority in questions regarding the motions of the atmosphere was the astronomer john herschel (son of the famous astronomer william herschel who discovered uranus). john herschel published during almost half a century, from the 1830s to the 1870s, theoretical articles and books about astronomy and physical geography. he also contributed a long article on “meteorology” for the encyclopaedia britannica.42 but it was thanks to dove’s strong influence in british meteorology that hadley and his “principle” finally became well-known in his own country, although the british tended rather to credit dove than hadley. the renowned english francis galton (cousin of charles darwin) expressed in 1862 admiration for dove’s “well known theory” about the winds, which he considered “so fertile in result “43. the translation of dove’s das gesetz der stürme in 186244 was made by a prominent british meteorologists robert h. scott (1833-1916) who had worked some years in germany with dove and would later be the longest serving director of the uk meteorological office, 1867-190045. with “hadley’s principle” firmly established in the meteorological community it became possible to explore in a rudimentary way to follow up what brandes had touched upon in 1820, the link between the wind and the pressure distribution. in particular why did the winds not blow straight into low pressure systems and straight out of high pressure systems? buys ballot’s law in the late 1850’s c.h.d. buys ballot (1817-90), a dutch physicist, published papers to illuminate the coupling between the horizontal pressure distribution and the wind, in particular the direction of the wind. soon “buys ballots rule” had won acceptance around europe: “…if one turns in the direction of the wind, with the back to the place where it comes from, one will have the lowest pressure on the left hand side…” buys ballot had started as a devoted follower of dove’s concepts and in 1853 published a paper confirming “dove’s wind law “46. when buys ballot in 1857 published his new theory it was highly controversial since it challenged dove’s authority47. his formulation that “one can better judge the wind from the barometer than from a wind vane” did not please dove. later buys ballot admitted: “this rule has cost me the favour of my beneficiary dove. he had called me the best defender of his law of turning…and now i had to prove just the opposite. not with the sun, in our hemisphere, but against the sun should the air move.” hadley’s principle could only explain “buys ballot’s rule” for winds from a northerly or southerly direction (or winds with north and south components). the respected british meteorologist william clement ley (1840-96) tried to accommodate “hadley’s principle” with the inflow in a cyclone from any direction. in his book the laws of the winds from 1872 he suggested that winds from straight east or west, according to “hadley’s principle” not affected by the earth’s rotation, were assumed to be directed by some internal forcing from neighbouring portions of the atmosphere the north and south winds. hadley’s principle 30 “hadley’s principle” questioned when finally in the mid 19th century, much thanks to hadley’s pioneering paper, it was realised that the rotation of the earth exercised a profound influence on the general circulation of the atmosphere and in particular the trade winds, a deeper understanding of the mechanism and its consequences had developed and “hadley’s principle” came under increasing attacks from both theoretical and practical meteorologists. foucault and coriolis in 1851 jean bernard foucault (1819-68) had conducted his pendulum experiment, which unleashed an international debate about the deflective mechanism of the earth’s rotation. it now became clear that it was equally affecting motions of all directions48. in 1859 the french academy of science organised a comprehensive debate about the practical consequences of this deflection, primarily on flow in rivers and the balance of railway trains. it is now that gaspard gustave coriolis (1792-1843) and his 1835 work on relative motion in a rotating system is re-discovered. coriolis showed that the inertial (centrifugal) force 2r or u2/r, until then only considered for objects stationary (at distance r from the centre) in the rotating system ( ), had to be extended by an extra term, -2 vr, to account for the total inertial force on an objects moving (vr) relative within the system. in 1837-38 siméon denis poisson (1781-1840) applied coriolis theorem on deflection of artillery gunnery49. ferrel and maury the man who in a correct way, scientifically and physically, brought in the effects of the earth’s rotation in meteorology was a mathematically gifted school teacher in tennessee, william ferrel (1817-91). his positive inspiration came from foucault’s pendulum experiment and nathaniel bowditch’s english translations of laplace’s mécanique celeste. the negative inspiration, or challenge, came from awkward explanations of the general circulation in contemporary popular literature, in particular maury’s physical geography of the sea. m.f. maury (1806-73) was a leading american authority on marine and oceanographic problems. in 1853 he had been instrumental in calling an international meeting in brussels to coordinate the marine traffic. his 1855 physical geography became a bestseller with sixth editions. if there ever was a “da vinci code of oceanography” then it was this book. profound observations, like ekman transports in the gulf stream, were mixed with pure fantasies and religious peculations. nothing, however, evoked more general unanimous opposition in the world of science than maury’s scheme of the circulation of the atmosphere. maury’s main hypothesis was that the high level currents towards the poles and the low level currents from the poles crossed around the subtropical high pressure belt. against all observations to the contrary maury postulated low pressure in the polar regions with an inflow of southwesterly winds. ferrel not only derived a correct expression of the coriolis effect, he also, after some minor mishaps, reached a correct mathematical and physical understanding of the deflective effect and its consequences for the atmospheric flow. this brought him into opposition to the hadley-dove explanation: “the reader is no doubt familiar with hadley’s theory. although [it] furnishes an explanation of the trade-winds, yet it does not account for many other remarkable history of meteorology 3 (2006) 31 phenomena in the motions of the atmosphere.”50 it was not until the mid 1870s that ferrel’s results became known in europe. when they finally did, they would have a profound impact. peslin and mohn: inspired by the 1859 academy debate the french scientist peslin (1836?) derived the geostrophic wind equation in 1869. when his paper was rejected by the french academy of science he published it in a little-read astronomical publication51. a half-baked attempt by a danish engineer l.a. colding (1815-1888) to derive an expression for the geostrophic flow52 challenged the norwegian meteorologist, later professor, henrik mohn (1835-1916) to do better. also mohn had followed the debate in the french academy of science in 1859, and in particular taken impression from babinet’s arguments that the deflective effect worked for all directions of motion. this view was expressed in mohn’s 1870 storm-atlas and two years later in his semipopular book om vind og vejr, meteorologins hovedresultater (on wind and weather, the main results of meteorology)53. already in the preface mohn made the readers aware that dynamic meteorology had entered a period when old traditions were challenged: “when there is a disagreement between the old and new opinions, i would advice the reader, to consider the basis upon which both are founded and thereafter chose, rather than to try to find agreement where there cannot be any.”54 mohn’s articles had a profound effect for the development of dynamic meteorology in germany. development of modern dynamic meteorology in germany and austria well before dove’s death in 1879 a “thaw” had developed in the meteorological science in germany. the younger generation at last felt free to admit that dove’s quite “unphysical theories” had retarded the progress of meteorology “for a long time “55. the impact of ferrel’s and mohn’s texts the germans became aware of both mohn’s and ferrel’s theories only in 1875. in december 1874 mohn had written to meteorologische zeitschrift that he and a colleague, c.m. guldberg, in 1872 had found the relation between wind and pressure. only a few days later julius v. hann the editor of meteorologische zeitung received a letter from cleveland abbe who alerted the journal to ferrel’s papers. in 1876 guldberg and mohn published their french speaking article which was immediately translated into german by mohn. on request from hann they modified it to become more easily accessible and it was published in 1877 in meteorologische zeitung. extended versions of mohn’s book would see five german editions, the first one in 1879 with a preface by george von neumayer (1826-1900), the head of the hamburg seewetteramt. in his preface neumayer expected that mohn’s book, together with german works “of solid character,” would have a “beneficial influence” although in many instances “diverging views” were presented56. stimulated by ferrel and mohn opposition to dove’s and hadley’s theories grew among theoretical german meteorologists in the 1870’s 57. more articles by finger, sprung and thiesen followed. the debate for and against the “dove-hadley principle” ended with a victory for the theoreticians58. the break with the hadley-dove model was not always easy. for many it took hadley’s principle 32 some years to realise that the hadley-dove model was not a “simplified” or “incomplete” version of ferrel’s correct model, but completely wrong59. german theoretical criticism of hadley’s principle there were three major points in the criticisms of “hadley’s principle” in the german meteorological community: (1) hadley’s explanation only works for north-south motion, although the deflection is valid for all directions; (2) the underlying conservation principle should not be one of absolute linear momentum, which only yields v the deflection, but of absolute angular momentum which yields 2 v; (3) the assumption about an impulsive force, pushing the air is unrealistic for the atmospheric mechanical system even today there is therefore a wide spread notion that hadley was not really wrong, only incomplete and that his explanation was a simplified version of the correct one. this is because only the first two points have been understood and considered. 1. after all, being able to account for deflection only of north-south winds can be seen as a step in the right direction. it was not fully realised that the basic assumption, latitudinal difference in the rotation velocity, is inadequate. the mathematical formulation of the coriolis effect does not contain any reference to any latitudinal variation in the rotational velocity. there is also coriolis deflection for motions along a latitude, where there is no change in the rotational velocity. 2. getting something wrong with a factor of 2 is not necessarily crucial, but the assumption of conservation of absolute linear momentum was physically wrong. a body set in motion by an impulse will follow an “inertia circle” path (with radius r=vr/2 sin ) on the earth’s surface and during its circular motion conserve its absolute angular momentum around the earth’s axis, but not its absolute linear momentum, as was required by “hadley’s principle.” indeed, when it, during its circular course has a direction eastward, with the earth’s rotation, its absolute linear momentum will be greater than when it is moving westward, against the earth’s rotation. the assumption in “hadley’s principle” that the absolute velocity is conserved is therefore unphysical. but these objections were not really fatal because they ignored the 3rd point of criticism. hadley’s set-up was physically wrong. as the german meteorologist adolph mühry (1810-88) commented already in 1869, “one cannot compare the motions of the air with that of a fired cannonball.”60 mühry’s criticism was supported by adolph sprung ten years later when he repeated that we have to distinguish between pure inertial motions and those which are affected by permanently acting forces61. unfortunately, very few understood mühry’s and sprung’s criticism which turned out to be the really fatal objection to the “hadley principle.” criticism along this line would be pursued by “practical” meteorologists, although with different arguments. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 33 the fatal error with hadley’s principle: the success with explaining the direction of the winds by invoking the rotation of the earth was not accompanied with a similar success to explain their velocities. from the late 1830’s, when hadley’s principle became generally accepted, there is an increasing criticism of the excessive winds it predicted. indeed, in the mid-1800’s serious doubts had formed if the rotation of the earth had any importance at all on the motions of the atmosphere! problems with the trade-wind velocities: the problem to explain unrealistic winds had been there even with the galilee-mariotte explanation of the trade-winds. why did the air, lagging behind the earth’s rotation do so by only 5-10 m/s at latitudes where the rotational velocity was more than 400 m/s? 62 whatever one might think of the contributions by halley and d’alembert, their disregard of the earth’s rotation salvaged them at least from the problem to explain excessive winds! in 1840 in a book about the wind systems on the world’s oceans a renowned french sea captain (“capitaine de corvette”) jean lartigue (1791-1876)63, expressed doubts that the earth’s rotation around its axis really was important for the trade winds. in the next edition of his book (in 1855) this chapter was omitted because, as lartigue explained, “a presentation of facts is sufficient” instead of an insufficient explanation.” from initially having endorsed hadley’s principle, in later editions of his physical geography maury became more critical and finally reached the verdict that diurnal rotation should therefore not be regarded as the sole cause of the easterly direction of the trade-winds. although john herschel’s view was that hadley’s model afforded “an easy and satisfactory explanation of the magnificent phenomena in question [the trade-winds]” there were complications: “…were any considerable mass of air to be suddenly transferred from beyond the tropics to the equator, the difference of the rotary velocities proper to the two situations would be so great as to produce not merely a wind, but a tempest of the most destructive violence.” these hurricane winds, herschel assured the reader, would not come into being thanks to friction which would make the easterly tendency diminish, to the point that the trade wind “lost its easterly character altogether.” herschel also thought that at least , more probably 2/3 of the energy in the westerlies derived from the energy of the rotation of the earth. he did not realize that if friction between the air and the earth was that effective the rotation of the earth would probably have decreased much more rapidly than actually observed64. more puzzling results came from trajectory calculations. a german meteorologist who wanted to test the hypothesis that the 30 m/s warm föhn winds in the alps had tropical origin, calculated a backward trajectory from central europe according to hadley’s principle. the result showed not only that the föhn air seemed to originate over indonesia and had travelled over southern india, via the arabic peninsula and the eastern mediterranean, it would also have had an initial velocity of 121 m/s, which decreased slowly as the air progressed poleward65. excessive wind velocities in the extra-tropics: hadley had himself advocated that his model could be applied to extra-tropical latitudes. this was also one of dove’s contributions. however, in doing so the physical consequences became even more absurd. a wind moving meridionally in the mid-latitudes would increase its hadley’s principle 34 velocity by on average 5 m/s for every degree passed66. just moving from 50º to 53º would make the wind increase to gale force, moving to 55º it would increase to full storm. french meteorologists wondered that air from paris blowing to newcastle would increase to a westerly hurricane of 35 m/s. in his 1735 paper hadley had explained why this did not occur by frictional losses towards the earth’s surface. this argument lost its validity when the winds at higher levels were considered where the friction is almost negligible. on the other hand, observations from the higher parts of the atmosphere seemed to give some credence to the existence of very strong winds. the strong winds in the upper “anti trade wind” already halley in 1686 had predicted the existence of an upper-air return flow and had given it the name the anti-trade wind: “…by a contrary current, the upper air must move from those parts where the greatest heat is: so by a kind of circulation, the north-east trade wind below, will be attended with a south westerly above, and the south easterly with a north west wind above.” hadley had in 1735 extended his model to the upper levels in a combined attempt to account for halley’s “anti trade wind,” and to explain the extratropical westerlies, the “west trade winds”: [the heated and lifted air] will then spread itself abroad over the other air, and so its motion in the upper regions must be to the n. and s. from the equator. being got up at a distance from the surface of the earth, it will soon lose great part of its heat, and thereby acquire density and gravity sufficient to make it approach its surface again…those parts beyond the tropics where the westerly winds are found. since the air now has the greater velocity than the earth it will now appear as a strong west wind, its strength “proportional to the difference of velocity [at the equator].” the “anti-trade wind” would figure prominently during the coming centuries, in particular when cloud observations in the subtropics revealed the existence of rapid south-westerly winds of 20-40 m/s, sometimes the 60 m/s predicted by the “hadley principle.” hadley and the british meteorologists when the meteorological world slowly came to realize that the “hadley principle” was not correct, one would assume that hadley’s compatriots, the british meteorologists were the last to abandon him. on the contrary – they had been the most sceptical from the start. to the british meteorologists of the late 19th century, “hadley’s principle,” rather suggested that the rotation of the earth hardly affected the atmosphere or the oceans at all! j.k. laughton the man who most forcefully formulated this criticism was john k. laughton (18301915), instructor, teacher and textbook author in astronomy, meteorology and oceanography in the royal navy, best known as the founder of modern naval history67. in his scientific publications laughton comes over as a strong empiricist with a deep-rooted scepticism about history of meteorology 3 (2006) 35 theories. in his powerfully argued 1873 book, physical geography in its relation to the prevailing winds and currents68 laughton dismissed the prevailing concept of the circulation of the atmosphere as unscientific and incompatible with known phenomena. he found the trade wind frequently dying away on the equator rather than “a storm of unheard-of severity, whose fury nothing could withstand…. the commonly received theory of the trade-winds and of the circulation of air over the globe [was] open to very grave objections.” laughton concluded that the friction between the air and earth was so great that “the influence of the rotation of the earth is not sufficient to produce the effects observed…. it would be contrary to all direct evidence to admit that the rotation of the earth produces any sensible effect on the motion of the air which we call wind.” together with five other prominent british meteorologists laughton published in 1878 a collection of articles in a book with the title modern meteorology.69 the book is mainly empirical and there is no mentioning of hadley or the rotation of the earth. only in the article about the use of the barometer there is a mentioning of “the common, well-known theory of the wind,” but then in a quotation from francis galton. however, the man who by all standards delivered the most fatal criticism to the “hadley principle,” gave it what should have been its final coup de grace, was an american. w.m. davis william m. davis (1850-1934) graduated from harvard at the age of 19. after completing a masters of engineering degree he spent three years as a meteorologist in argentina. he was recruited by harvard as a geologist and in 1885 became professor of physical geography. he was a leading force in the american meteorological journal. in the 1880s he published several articles on the deflective force which culminated in his 1890s textbook basic meteorology,70 like sprung and others davis’ road to a new and correct understanding of the deflective mechanism was hampered by initial misunderstandings, in particular the recognition of the fundamental errors in the “hadley principle.” but once all the bits and pieces had come together and fitted, he ventured on a crusade to promote a correct view as laid out by ferrel. he did not hesitate to criticise the british: it is perhaps because of too great attention to mathematical form and relative neglect of the ideas that it clothes that the english mathematicians and meteorologists as a whole have been so little affected by ferrel’s suggestions. his principles as yet have not really touched meteorological science in that conservative country. in 1899 davis was invited to speak at the royal meteorological society on the circulation of the atmosphere. most of the talk consisted of a condemnation of contemporary scientists who still regarded hadley’s explanation “so sufficient that it is still widely quoted, although it has been repeatedly shown to be seriously incomplete”: much more serious is the omission from hadley’s statement---of all consideration of the effect produced on the distribution of pressure by the deflection of the winds…. as long as the effect of the winds in modifying the distribution of pressure is left out of consideration, no broad understanding of atmospheric processes can be reached. hadley’s principle 36 davis suggested that neither hadley nor scientists in the first half of the 19th century were to explain the lack of excessive winds using simply the geostrophic wind relation, “buys ballot’s law.” in the same way as horizontal pressure gradients accelerate the wind, they can also decelerate them in case they are super-geostrophic when they will point toward higher pressure and be retarded. the violent storms didn’t need any tremendous friction to abate; the resistance of the pressure field would have accomplished that.71 according to davis the conventional explanation of the circulation of the atmosphere, as ordinarily stated “is seriously incompetent” and he called for a “rebellion” against unscientific teaching: if [the serious student] makes no objection, it must be that he is too accustomed to basing his opinions on authority instead of on evidence. it is utterly unscientific to believe in a theory whose deduced consequences are not borne out by facts; yet what is more common than to find among students of meteorology an acceptance of the conventional origin of the general circulation of the atmosphere…they should rebel against a theory that is so incapable of bearing a reasonable test. if assured that the theory is correct, they should rebel against the insufficiency of the evidence that is presented to them in its favour. now, when the global pressure distribution was known, davis pointed out, “it is curious that students who are familiar only with hadley’s explanation of the effect of the earth’s rotation should continue to believe in the conventional theory of the winds.” consequences for british meteorology at the end of the 19th century british meteorology was left in a bewildered state. laughton’s and davis’ well argued and correct criticism of hadley’s principle was not followed by any alternative explanation of the coriolis effect. the british physical scientists seemed to be split into three groups: (1) mathematicians mastered the correct derivations of the coriolis effect, often based on complicated trigonometrical arguments, but were not particularly interested in the geophysical background or applications; (2) meteorologists tended to discard all theories and stuck to observed empirical facts, because the mathematical derivations were complex and “hadley’s principle” gave wrong predictions; (3) physicists with no direct involvement in meteorology found “hadley’s principle” an illuminating explanatory model, more convenient to refer to than the complicated mathematical derivations. among the latter we find james thomson (1822-92), elder brother of lord kelvin, who in 1892 held his bakerian lecture for the royal society on the general circulation of the atmosphere and mentioned hadley’s name almost 40 times, twice as much as that of william ferrel’s: “hadley’s theory in its main features […] must be substantially true, and must form the basis of any tenable theory [of the general circulation of the atmosphere] that could be devised.”72 thomson, who died shortly afterwards, seem to have been completely unaware of the fundamental criticism which german, american and british scientists had launched against “hadley’s principle.” thomson’s lecture appears to have made the british start to appreciate “hadley’s principle” out of patriotic reasons, unaware that it would distort their understanding of a fundamental mechanical principle. this is reflected in the man who would soon elevate his country’s meteorology to new heights. sir william napier shaw (1854-1945) would at his death be hailed as the “father of history of meteorology 3 (2006) 37 modern british meteorology” and as the first theoretical meteorologist in britain. but he had a slow start. in a speech to the distinguished royal society in june 1904 he gave an awkward mathematical expression for the coriolis effect and offered the following explanation: “…the horizontal acceleration, arising from the earth’s rotation is along the normal to the path, and to the left (sic!) in the northern hemisphere. on that side, therefore, the low pressure (sic!) must lie.” in his 1913-14 principia meteorologica, a meteorological pastiche of newton’s principia, shaw hardly included the rotation of the earth in any of his “laws” and “lemmas.” shaw and his colleagues tried to understand the deflection from tracy’s 1843 flawed explanation73 based on the assumption that inertial, frictionless motion over the earth’s surface would follow great circles. as late as 1946 l.f. richardson still thought in terms of great circle motion when he was trying to become familiar with the coriolis effect74. the survival of hadley’s model today the computers are fed with the correct information with respect to the equations of motion. today’s meteorologists, however, try to interpret the output in terms of hadley’s flawed mechanical model, where only the mathematical errors have been corrected but left hadley’s mechanical arrangement intact. parcels of air, or more correctly, hemispheric rings of air, are still supposed to be displaced meridionally by an impulse. doing so they will, when displaced from the equator to 30° latitude increase to 130 m/s while correctly conserving absolute angular momentum, twice as much as in hadley’s erroneous model. so what is wrong? the answer was given in the book by davis (1894), in articles in monthly weather review by marvin (1920) and clough (1920)75, and finally in the influential textbook by brunt (1934, 1944)76. let us quote the latter: it is frequently stated in meteorological treaties that if air moves from one latitude to another, retaining its original angular momentum (in space) about the earth’s axis, then in its new latitude it will have enormous velocities along the circle of latitude. this statement is highly misleading. brunt then makes the point that a frictionless moving body at the equator given an impulse to the north of 20 m/s would travel to the north not more than a distance of the order of 1000 km, equivalent to about 9º of latitude, before it is turned back by the coriolis force in an inertial circle. a parcel of air at latitude 60º given the same impulse would only travel 160 km to the north before it was back in an inertia circle. brunt’s explanation repeated the observation already made by ferrel that the effect of the earth’s rotation is to make it difficult for any parcel of air or water to move any considerable distance over its surface. while the pressure gradient force tries to even out horizontal pressure differences by accelerating the air, the coriolis force tries to restore the same differences by bringing the air back in an inertial circle motion. the global circulation can be seen as an eternal contest between these two tendencies. according to brunt, “in practice the motion of a mass of air through a large range of latitude, while retaining its original angular momentum about the axis of the earth, can never arise.” the angular momentum conserving model is therefore out of place for the atmosphere. how it was introduced into dynamic meteorology in the 19th century in order to facilitate the understanding of the effect of the earth’s rotation on the atmosphere, will be a topic for a future article. hadley’s principle 38 conclusion to be a good scientist you do not have to be right, the important thing is that you have reached your conclusions by sound reasoning with the concepts and observations available at the time you made them. in that sense aristotle and ptolemy were great scientists, but not those who echoed them in the 16th century when new facts showed that they were wrong. copernicus kept numerous epicycles in his heliocentric system, kepler believed in number mystique and galileo was convinced that the planetary orbits were perfect circles, still we rightly regard them as great scientists. in the same way hadley, maclaurin, kant, laplace, de luc and others have their place in the history as great scientists who pointed to the rotation of the earth as a crucial mechanism for the motions of the atmosphere. but it is not scientific to echo those parts of their explanation that new observations and theories have shown to be wrong. endnotes 1 t. bergeron,”methods in scientific weather analysis and forecasting, an outline in the history of ideas and hints at a program,” in the atmosphere and the sea in motion, scientific contributions to the rossby memorial volume, bert bolin editor, (new york, 1959), 440-474. 2 g. hadley,”on the cause of the general trade winds,” phil trans, roy. soc. 34 (1735): 58-62, reprinted in c. abbe, the mechanics of the earth’s atmosphere, smithsonian misc. collections 51, no. 1 (1910) and d. b. shaw, meteorology over the tropical oceans, (roy. meteorol. soc. 1979); g. hellmann, neudrucke von schriften und karten über meteorologie und erdmagnetismus 6 (berlin, 1896), 16-20; burstyn,”early explanations of the role of the earth’s rotation in the circulation of the atmosphere,” isis 52 (1966): 183-86. 3 for hadley’s biography see for example n. shaw,”pioneers in the science of weather,” quart. j. roy. meteorol. soc. 46 (1920): 145; n. shaw, manual of meteorology 4 (cambridge univ. press, 1931), 82-83; g. hellmann 6 (berlin, 1896): 7-8; burstyn (1966): 183. 4 g. hadley,”an account and abstract of the meteorological diaries communicated to the royal society for the years 1729 and 1730,” phil trans. roy. soc. 1 (1737): 154-75; g. hellmann, 6 (berlin, 1896): 8-9. 5 h. eeles,”letters concerning the cause of the ascent of vapour and exhalation, and those of winds; and of the general phenomena of the weather and barometer,” phil. trans. roy. soc. 49 (1755): 134-39. 6 h. l. burstyn, 52 (1966): 167-87. 7 g. garden,”a discourse concerning weather…,” phil. trans. roy. soc. 15 (1685): 991-1001; g. garden, g. [ “extracts of two letters written by dr garden of aberdeen, one ] concerning the causes of several winds etc to dr plot, the other concerning the proboscis of bees etc to dr middleton, extract of the first letter “], phil. trans. roy. soc. 15 (1685): 1148-56. 8 e. mariotte, traité du movement des eaus et des autres corps fluids (paris, 1686); when mariotte died 1684 his assistant phillippe de la hire (1640-1718) continued his work which might explain obvious editing errors. see also h. l. burstyn, (1966): 172-75. 9 e. halley,”an historical account of the trade winds, and monsoons, observable in the seas between and near the tropics, with an attempt to assign the physical cause of said winds,” phil. trans. roy. soc. 16 (1686): 153-68; see also burstyn (1966): 176-78. 10 e. chambers, cyclopaedia or a universal dictionary of arts and sciences (london, 1728). 11 c. maclaurin,”de causa physica fluxus et refluxus maris,” from pièces qui ont remportés le prix de l’academie royale des sciences en 1740, (paris 1741); burstyn, (1966): 186-87. history of meteorology 3 (2006) 39 12 j. le r. d'alembert, reflexions sur la cause génerale des vents, (paris, 1747), david, 194 pp. 13 d'alembert, (1747): xvii, 46-54 and 63-65. 14 see for example g. de buffon, histoire naturelle generale et particulière (1749); p. mussenbroek, essai de physique (1751) m. paulian, dictionnaire de physique portative, (1767); m. brisson, dictionnaire raissonné de physique, tome ii (1781); cotte, traité de météorologie (1774); marvietz and goussier, physique de monde (1781); cousin, traité élémentaire de physique (1795). 15 f.a.e. keller,”régime des courants des vents et des tempêtes dans l’ocean atlantique septentrional” (probably paris 1859), quoted in l.f. kämtz, repertorium für meteorologie, 1 band, 1 heft, (dorpat 1859). 16 h.l. burstyn, (1966): 178-80. 17 m. schneidemühl,”kant und die moderne theorie der winde,” das ausland 63, no 34, (stuttgart 26 august 1890): 661-64, (also in naturwissenschaften, v, nr 42, 19 oktober 1890); m. jakobi,”immanuel kant und die lehre von den winden,” meteorol. z. 20 (1903): 412-21; f. dorsch,”kant und die meteorologie,” meteorol. z. 41 (1924): 280-82; h-g körber,”meteorologische anschauungen bei immanuel kant,” ntm-schiftenr. gesch. naturwiss., technik, medicin. 14:2 (leipzig 1977): 29-36. 18 i. kant, neue anmerkungen zur erläuterung der theorie der winde, (königsberg 1756), in kant’s werke band i, (berlin und leipzig, 1910): 489-503, comments 582-84. 19 i. kant, i., physische geographie (königsberg 1802), in kant’s werke band ix, (berlin und leipzig 1923): 289-94, § 67-71, comments 510-13, 517, 536-38 20 i. kant, handschriftlichen nachlass, band i (berlin und leipzig 1925): 553-63 21 meteorological discussions are also found in the following articles by kant: “von dem ersten grunde des unterschiedes der gegenden im raume” (1768),”entwurf ankündigung eines collegii der physischen geographie nebst dem anhange einer kurzen betrachtung über die frage: ob die westwinde in unsern gegenden darum feucht seien, weil sie über ein großes meer streichen” (1757) and “fortgesetzte betrachtung der seit einiger zeit wahrgenommenen erderschütterungen” (1756). 22 kant, i., handschriftlichen nachlass, band i, (berlin und leipzig): 555. 23 references to kant in w.a. lampadius, systematische grundriss der atmosphärologie (freiburg 1806):179. a. v. humboldt, kosmos, band ii (stuttgart, 1847); a. v. humboldt,”beobachtungen über das gesetz der wärmeabnahme,” ann. d. phys. (1806): 16-17; k.w.g. kastner, handbuch der meteorologie (erlangen 1823). we know that helmholtz, who wrote some important papers on meteorology, was much influenced by kant’s works. 24 p-s. laplace,”recherches sur plusieurs points du systeme du monde,” mém. acad. roy. des sciences 88 (1775): 91-92, see also laplace, ouevre complete 9 (paris, 1893), 90. 25 p-s. laplace, exposition du système du monde, xii(1796): 267-68, see also ouevre complete 6, livre iv, ch. xiii (paris, 1886), 324. 26 p-s. laplace, méchanique céleste, tome ii, ch. v, §44 (paris, 1878): 312-14. 27 j-a. de luc, idées sur la meteorology, tome ii, sec. ii, §840, (paris 1787). 28 j. dalton, meteorological observations and essays, (manchester, 1793, 2nd edition 1843), viii; n. shaw, manual of meteorology, vol. i (cambridge 1926), 289-90. the reference to de luc given by dalton and shaw is completely wrong. 29 j. dalton, (1793, 1834): 85-87. 30 w.a. lampadius, systematische grundriss der atmosphärologie, (freiburg 1806). 31 h.w. brandes, beiträge zur witterungskunde, (breslau 1820): 365-70 and 15. 32 h.w. brandes (1820), 78-79. 33 contradictory evidence came from the scandinavian countries located in the middle of the storm track. a danish professor j. f. schouw, who had published a book on the climate of denmark, expressed doubts about the general validity of dove’s “wind law.” dove started a vitriolic campaign hadley’s principle 40 against schouw which lasted almost ten years and in 1833 prompted schouw to submit a letter of complain to “annalen” about dove’s “guerrilla war” (ge= kleinkrieg). 34 h.w. dove,”über monssons und passat,” ann. d. phys. 21(1831): 177-200. 35 h.w. dove,”über den einfluss der drehung der erde auf die strömungen ihrer atmosphäre,” ann. d. phys. 36 (1835): 321-51; translated into english “on the influence of the rotation of the earth on the currents of the atmosphere: being outlines of a general theory of winds, phil. mag. 11 (1837): 227-39, 353-63. 36 the notion of two contesting air masses seems to have been quite common already in the 18th century. see pages 519-46 in transaction of the royal society in 1735 for an anonymous letter discussing the “cause of the winds” in a way that more or less pre-dated not only dove but even the bergen school frontal theory by almost 200 years. 37 h.w. dove,”über die von drehungsgetsetz abhängigen drehung der windfahne in gegensatz der durch wirbelwinde veranlassen,” ann. d. phys, 67 (1846): 297-303. 38 j. dalton,”notice relative to the theory of winds,” phil. mag. 11(1837): 390, translated into german and published as j. dalton,”bemerkung über die theorie des windes,” ann. d. phys. 42 (1837): 315. 39 h.w.dove, meteorologische untersuchungen (berlin 1837), 344 pp. 40 h.w.dove,”über die verschiedenen theorien des windes, als erwiederung auf vorstehende bemerkung,” ann. d. phys. 42 (1837): 316-24. 41 h.w.dove,”mémoires sur la physique publiés a l’étranger, mémoire sur la théorie génerale des vents par m. dove, extraits par monsieur verdet,” annales de chemie et de physique, 3e serie, 51 (1857): 242-55. 42 gregory a. good, “a shift of view: meteorology in john herschel’s terrestrial physics,” intimate universality: local and global themes in the history of weather and climate, edited by j.r. fleming, v. jankovic, and d.r. coen (sagamore beach, mass.: science history publications/usa, 2006), 35-68. 43 f. galton,”a development of the theory of cyclones,” proc. roy. soc., 12 (1863): 385-86. 44 h.w. dove, das gesetz der stürme, (verlag dietrich reimer, berlin 1861), 2nd ed. , translated into english as law of storms, (london 1862, berlin 1866), 346 pp. see pp. 4-9 for effects of the earth rotation. more than 20 years earlier 1840 dove had presented a paper “über das gesetz der stürme” in the academy of science in berlin, ann. d. phys. 52 (1840): 1-41. 45 j. burton,”pen portraits of presidents: robert henry scott, ma, dsc, frs,” weather 49, no. 9 (1994): 323-24. 46 c.h.d. buys ballot,”einiges über das dove’sche drehungsgesetz,” ann d. phys 73 (1853): 417-38, 553-66. 47 c.h.d. buys-ballot,”note sur le rapport de l'intensité de la advection du vent avec les écarts simultanés du barometrè,” compt. rend. 45 (1857): 765-68. 48 a. persson,”the coriolis effect: 400 years of conflict between common sense and mathematics,” hist. meteorol. 2 (2005): 1-24. 49 s.d. poisson,”extrait de la prémière partie d'un mémorie,” compt rend, 5 (1837): 660-67; s.d. poisson,”sur le mouvement des projectiles dans l'air, en avant regard a la rotation de la terre,” j. ecole polytech. 18 (1838): 1-69, translated by f. waldo and c. abbe in smithsonian misc. collections (1910): 8-15. 50 w. ferrel,”an essay on winds and the currents of the ocean,” nashville journ. medicine surgery, 11 (1856): 287-30. reprinted in professional papers of the signal service, 12 (washington, 1882): 7-19. 51 h. peslin,”sur le relation entre les variations du barometre et les grandes courants atmospherique,” bull. int. de l'observatoire de paris et de l'observatoire phys. centrale de montsouris history of meteorology 3 (2006) 41 29 mai-7 julliet. there is an error in his derivation which should have yielded the wrong result of only half the coriolis force. full biography and bibliography in m. rochas,”h. peslin, ingenieur des mines à tarbes,” la météorologie 49 (2005): 42-45. 52 a. colding,”einige bemerkungen zu den strömungsverhältnissen der luft,” österr. meteorol. z. 10 (1875): 133-42 an abridged version of two articles in danish from 1869 and 1971 on the dynamics of water and air currents. colding was a devoted supporter of dove’s “law if the winds.” however, he did only consider the geostrophic relation for sea currents, but an attempt failed. when the editor-in-chief for meteorologische zeitung in a footnote gave the correct equation as g dz/dt = 2 sin v he was “jumped at” by a reader who from the traditional view argued for the equation g dz/dt = sin v. 53 h. mohn, det norske meteorologiske instituts storm atlas (christiania, 1872). 54 h. mohn, grundzüge der meteorologie, die lehre von wind und wetter nach dem neusten forschungen (berlin, 1879). 55 the “young” generation consisted of meteorologists that we tend to regard as “old.” when dove died julius v. hann was 40, wladimir köppen 33, george von neumayer 53, theodor reye 41 and adolph sprung 31. 56 von neumayer in the introduction to h. mohn (1879), vi, 57 guldberg, c.m. and h. mohn, études sur les mouvements de l'atmosphère. i partie, (christiania 1876). ii partie (christiania 1880), reprinted in vogt, h. (ed.) norwegian classical meteorological papers prior to the bergen school (universitetsforlaget oslo 1966). these papers by mohn and guldberg must, together with the bergen school papers, be counted among the most important norwegian contributions to meteorology. 58 a. persson,”the coriolis effect: 400 years of conflict between common sense and mathematics,” hist. meteorol. 2 (2005): 1-24. 59 a swiss professor h. wettstein in die strömungen des festen, flüssigen under gasförmigen (zürich, 1880), argued on pages 218-220 on one hand, from the foucault experiment, that the deflection was independent of direction, on the other hand invoked “a second form” of influence, the hadley-dove model. 60 a. mühry, über die theorie und das allgemeine geographische system der winde, (göttingen 1869); a. persson, (2005): 11. 61 a.sprung,”ûber das hadley’sche prinzip, anhang zu studien über den wind und seine beziehungen zum luftdruck,” archiv des deutschen seewarte, ii jahrgang 1 (1879): 33. 62 chambers (1728): 328, musschenbroek (1751): 856-57, §1747 and eeles (1755): 135 among others. 63 j. lartigue, exposition du système des vents (1st edition 1840, 2nd 1855). a short biography of jean lartigue (1791-1876) is in meyers konversationslexikon (1888), 526. lartigue travelled in the south american waters 1820-44 and published some books on their marine and oceanographic conditions. 64 j. herschel, outlines of astronomy (london, 1853,1878), §242. 65 a. mousson,”über die bahnbewegung eines freien theilchens auf einer sich drehenden kugel,” ann. d. phys.(1866): 652-58. adolph sprung later calculated that 30 m/s inertial motion would move clockwise in a circle of 100 km radius trough nice, genève, lindau, munich and so on. see j.f.w. von baeyer,”über die bahnlinien der winde auf der sphräoïdischen erdoberfläche,” ann. d. phys. (1858): 377-404. 66 already dalton (1793, 1834) had calculated that air brought from 60º to 70º n would acquire a westerly velocity of 60-70 m/s. 67 d.a.lambert,”pen portraits of presidents, sir john knox laughton, rn,” weather 54, no. 1 (1999): 27-30. 68 j.k.laughton, physical geography in its relation to the prevailing winds and currents (london, 1870). laughton’s book was well received by the british meteorological community and led to hadley’s principle 42 his lifelong connection with the royal meteorological society. he was elected a fellow in 1873 and served as foreign secretary in 1880-81 and president in 1882-83. 69 j.m.mann, j.k. laughton et al, modern meteorology, six lectures under the auspieces of the meteorologuical society (london 1878), german version die moderne meteorologie (berlin 1882). only the contribution by richard strachan “on the use of the barometer” comes close to the point by mentioning “the common, well-known theory of the wind,” but then in a quotation from francis galton. 70 w.m.davis, elementary meteorology (boston, 1893), 367 pp. 71 see also e. lorenz, the nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere, (geneva, 1967), 69-70 how helmholtz 1888 introduced what lorenz called “turbulent viscosity” but i would call “geostrophic viscosity.” 72 j. thomson,”on the grand currents of atmospheric circulation” phil. trans. roy. soc. 183a (1892): 653-84. 73 in w.n.shaw’s preface to e. gold, barometric gradient and the wind force, report to the director of the meteorological office on the calculation of wind velocity from pressure distribution, his maj. stat. off. (london, 1908): 6, he discussed the deflection in terms of “great circle” motion. see also shaw’s preface to j. fairgrieve,”on the relation between velocity of the grqdient wind and that of the observed wind,” meteorological office geophysical memoirs 9 (london, 1914) for a history of the geostrophic wind concept. shaw’s incomplete mathematical understanding of the coriolis force is reflected in his statement that -2m vr is only an “approximation.” the british at this time called the geostrophic wind the “gradient wind.” 74 l.f.richardson,”the geostrophic wind,” unpublished notes, see catalogue of the papers and correspondence of lewis fry richardson deposited in cambridge university library, compiled by t.e.powell and p.harper, national cataloguing unit for the archives of contemporary science, university of bath 1993. see also a.persson,”back to basics: coriolis: part 2 – the coriolis force according to coriolis,” weather 55 (2000): 187. 75 w.m. davis (1893): 103; h.w.clough,”the principle of the conservation of angular momentum as applied to atmospheric motions,” mon. wea. rev., (1920): 462-65; c.f.marvin,”the law of the geoidal slope and fallacies in dynamic meteorology,” mon. wea. rev. (1920): 565-82. 76 d. brunt, physical and dynamical meteorology (cambridge univ. press, 1934, 1944), 392393, esp. 404-405. microsoft word 1) giacomelli .docx history of meteorology 8 (2017)   15 unsettling gilded-age science: vernacular climatology and meteorology in the “middle border” joseph giacomelli jng53@cornell.edu cornell university introduction during the gilded age, in the states and territories of the interior united states, euro-americans interested in establishing weather and climate observation networks faced numerous obstacles. securing funding ranked high among them. in 1882, for example, francis nipher helped introduce a bill before the missouri state legislature seeking several thousand dollars of funding for the missouri weather service. “consideration of this bill,” nipher later wrote, “furnished an occasion for mirth to some members of that body; but failed to occasion any interest.” the saint louis resident found the rejection “so depressing” that he made “no further attempt…in that direction.” yet nipher did succeed in expanding the missouri weather service, thanks in large part to a growing network of volunteer observers – weather aficionados who recorded rainfall and temperature data to be collected in reports such as an 1892 study titled “missouri rainfall.” according to nipher, the “patience and self-denial” of volunteer observers allowed his weather service to overcome the indifference of state legislators.1 state weather services similar to nipher’s proliferated across the great plains and midwest during the 1870s and 1880s. these regional or meso-scale networks shared many characteristics with the national and transnational data collection networks analyzed by scholars such as james rodger fleming, jamie pietruska, and paul edwards. like members of the smithsonian-based initiatives described by fleming, members of regional weather bureaus perceived their work as contributing to a “system” of “increasing complexity and abstraction” to be used by scientists in                                                                                                                           1 francis e. nipher, “report on missouri rainfall, with averages for ten years ending december 1887,” transactions of the academy of science of st. louis, vol. 5, 1886-1891 (st. louis, mo: r.p. studley and co., 1892), 383. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   16 support of “theoretical, polemical, and practical objectives.”2 like the imperial meteorological networks examined by pietruska, local networks helped “undergird agricultural improvement, capitalism, and the civilizing mission of american science.”3 and, like the institution-builders in paul edwards’s work, they participated in the “messy and incomplete” transition toward more standardized data collection frameworks.4 yet the idiosyncrasies of these local networks merit closer examination. the inner workings of organizations such as nipher’s highlight eddies amid the seemingly inexorable currents of nineteenth-century science: the shift from settler ecologies and folklore to data-based epistemologies, and the drive to separate positivist “pure science” from the murky realms of boosterism and cultural politics.5 as scholars including philipp lehmann and simon naylor have observed, nineteenthcentury data collection efforts did not give rise to stable and certain scientific paradigms. lehmann has pointed out how attempts to standardize meteorological and climatic data ushered in a “period of reevaluation and uncertainty with regard to the future trajectory of the discipline” of climatology.6 similarly, naylor has pointed out that vast troves of numbers such as those compiled by nipher created more questions than answers.7 by examining vernacular meteorology and climatology8 in the “middle border” region,9 i hope to reveal some of the tensions shaping the construction of gilded-age american science. climate theorists from kansas, iowa, and other                                                                                                                           2 james rodger fleming, meteorology in america, 1800-1870 (baltimore: johns hopkins university press, 1990), xxi-xxii, see also fleming, historical perspectives on climate change, (oxford: oxford university press, 1998), 3341. 3 jamie pietruska, “hurricanes, crops, and capital: the meteorological infrastructure of american empire in the west indies,” the journal of the gilded age and progressive era 15 (oct 2016): 432. 4 paul edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism,” osiris 21 (2006): 230. 5 for “pure science” in the gilded age, see paul lucier, “the professional and the scientist in nineteenth-century america,” isis 100 (2009): 723. see also lucier, “the origins of pure and applied science in gilded age america,” isis 103 (2012). 6 philipp lehmann, “whither climatology? bruckner’s climate oscillations, data debates, and dynamic climatology,” history of meteorology 15 (2015): 51. 7 in his study of provincial meteorology in cornwall, naylor has argued that mass-scale meteorological data collection gave rise to “very real concerns in the late 1860s about how to turn continuous records into numerical results useful to science and government.” see simon naylor, “nationalizing provincializing weather: meteorology in nineteenthcentury corwall,” british journal for this history of science 39 (2006): 419. 8 my aim in using the expansive and admittedly nebulous category of “vernacular science” is to highlight the unevenness of late-nineteenth century scientific bureaucratization, professionalization, systematization, centralization, and standardization. as kathleen pandora has argued, “vernacular discursive forms” of science serve as a kind of “intellectual commons” where “social and theoretical comment can circulate without regard for scientific property.” see katherine pandora, “knowledge held in common: tales of luther burbank and science in the american vernacular,” isis 92 (september 2001): 492. for another elaboration of the concept of “vernacular science,” see helen tilley, “global histories, vernacular science, and african genealogies; or, is the history of science ready for the world?” isis 101 (march 2010), especially fn 4. tilley’s notion of vernacular science emphasizes “native” knowledge, and she also outlines how different scholars have employed the term. 9 the geographical area of focus for this article is not just the great plains but a broader, vaguely defined region some nineteenth-century americans termed the “middle border,” which included the prairie states as well as much of the west. author hamlin garland popularized the term in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. see hamlin garland, a son of the middle border (new york: mcmillan, 1917). for a recent discussion of the “middle border,” see aaron sachs, arcadian america: the death and life of an environmental tradition (new haven: yale university press, 2013), 210-211. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   17 states attempted to derive meteo-climatic knowledge from sprawling sets of data collected by observers. they sought to answer a range of questions, especially the pressing, politically charged issue of whether euro-american settlement could modify climatic conditions through agriculture, afforestation, deforestation, and other means.10 in doing so, they fused naturalistic beliefs with quantitative methods and probabilistic paradigms with experiential and experimental modes of apprehending the natural world. conevery bolton valenčius has revealed the ubiquity of “everyday science” in early america. in the lost history of the new madrid earthquakes, she demonstrates how antebellumera “natural inquiry,” folklore, and other forms of knowledge sometimes dismissed as “derivative and inconsequential” comprised the “unrecognized bedrock” of the gilded-age “explosion of invention, innovation, engineering, and institution-building.”11 this article seeks to extend valenčius’s periodization by showing that vernacular science did not just set the groundwork for later developments. in the late nineteenth-century united states, boundaries between types of knowledge remained porous and contested. i aim to explore the dialectic between the quotidian settler perceptions analyzed by valenčius and the institutional science chronicled by fleming.12 “middle border” boosters and newspapermen sometimes deployed, debated, and questioned expansive data sets. “men of science,” meanwhile, used anecdote and folklore as starting points in deriving hypotheses to explain climatic and meteorological changes. they melded naturalistic wisdom and emerging techno-scientific methods, sometimes seeking legitimacy from their use of local and experiential knowledge.13 in order to convey the breadth and depth of gilded-age meteo-climatic debates, this article draws from newspapers, amateur                                                                                                                           10 during the gilded age, boosters, land speculators, and railroad agents argued that tree plantations and newly planted crops could transform the climate of the intermountain west and great plains, creating a utopia for yeoman farmers. some scientists, surveyors, and bureaucrats concurred, while others expressed doubts about the ability of forest culture and agriculture to modify weather patterns. for many euro-americans, belief in anthropogenic climate change served as a litmus test for faith in american capitalism and manifest destiny. for an example of a source arguing in favor of human-induced climate change, see charles dana wilber, the great valleys and prairies of nebraska and the northwest (omaha: daily republican print, 1881). for an example of a “middle border” author arguing against climatic changes, see edgar guild, “western kansas: its geology, climate, natural history, etc.” kansas city review of science and industry 3 (december 1879). 11 conevery bolton valenčius, the lost history of the new madrid earthquakes (chicago: university of chicago press, 2013), see 177 for “bedrock,” 17 for “natural inquiry,” 10 for “derivative” and “everyday science.” 12 see valenčius, the health of the country: how american settlers understood themselves and their land (new york: basic books, 2002) and fleming, meteorology in america. in her study on folklore and meteorological knowledge in switzerland, sarah strauss argues that “folklore, as well as individual practice, is embedded into the scientific process.” see strauss, “weather wise: speaking folklore to science in leukerbad,” in strauss and benjamin orlove, eds, weather, climate, culture (new york: berg, 2003), 52-53. 13 for “men of science” deriving inspiration from folklore and anecdote, see john hay, “atmospheric absorption and its effect upon agriculture,” proceedings of the eighteenth annual meeting 1890 of the kansas state board of agriculture (topeka, 1890), and harvey culbertson, “meteorology,” annual report of the nebraska state horticultural society 1885 (lincoln: state journal company, 1887). for a study on the complex meaning of the term “professional” in the gilded age, see lucier, “the professional and the scientist.” lucier argues that late nineteenthcentury “men of science” sought to distinguish themselves from “professionals” tainted by economic dealings. i am not taking issue with lucier’s point. by using “professional” in this context, i am using the current meaning of the term to refer to climatic and meteorological thinkers who earned salaries for their scientific endeavors. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   18 weather reports, and local and regional agro-scientific societies, as well as the papers and writings of experts and semi-trained polymaths. exponents of vernacular meteorology and climatology did not create a discrete branch of knowledge; instead, they operated within a network of mutually influencing epistemologies.14 indeed, the diffuse nature of data collection projects and the popularization of scientific discourse reveal the inadequacy of the category “vernacular science.” in some ways, all gilded-age science was vernacular. i depict vernacular climatology and meteorology not as fixed categories but as a series of negotiations between academics, bureaucrats, technocrats, volunteer observers, agriculturalists, newspapermen, and others. these figures contested the legitimacy of newly produced scientific knowledge. they appropriated climatic and meteorological theories to serve their interests, which ranged from agricultural boosterism to institution-building to the settling of personal squabbles. relocating meteorology and climatology to the “middle border” highlights the unsettled nature of gilded-age scientific cultures. gustavus hinrichs, mercurial polymath gustavus hinrichs, the founder and head of the iowa state weather service, stood at the intersection of the often contradictory intellectual currents shaping great plains meteo-climatic science. at times, he upheld the work of “practical” men over that of institutional scientists, railed against the dogma of empiricism, and advanced boosterish, promotional climatology. but at other times, he policed the borders of science, issuing vehement denunciations of anyone straying beyond the bounds of “real science.” hinrichs also issued seemingly conflicting statements about human-induced climate change and about the role of statistical uncertainty in climate science.15 aside from occasional credits for coining the term “derecho” (a large, straight-line windstorm), he has received little attention from historians of climatology and meteorology.16 a mercurial and paradoxical figure, hinrichs offers a glimpse into contentious gilded-age debates over who qualified as legitimate creators of climatic and meteorological knowledge. his work merits closer                                                                                                                           14 in victorian popularizers of knowledge: designing nature for new audiences (chicago: university of chicago press, 2007), bernard lightman offers a nuanced interpretation of the relationship between popular and elite science: “popular culture can actively produce its own indigenous science, or can transform the products of elite culture in the process of appropriating them” (14). 15 for hinrichs’s defense of “real science,” see hinrichs,“faith and science,” lecture delivered by prof. gustavus hinrichs before the students of the [iowa] state university, undated, likely 1867, g. hinrichs papers, box 1, university of iowa library. university archives, rg. 99.0039. for hinrichs’s skepticism, see hinrichs, “rainfall and timber in iowa,” transactions of the iowa state horticultural society for 1879 (des moines: f.m. mills, state printer, 1880), 199-200. 16 see stephen f. corfidi, michael c. coniglio, ariel e. cohen and corey m. mead, “a proposed revision to the definition of ‘derecho,’” bulletin of the american meteorological society 97.6 (june 2016). w.p. palmer’s piece on hinrichs surveys his contributions to chemistry and offers some details about his life, but does not explore his philosophy of science or delve into his climatic and meteorological work. see “dissent at the university of iowa: gustavus detlef hinrichs – chemist and polymath,” chemistry 16, 6 (2007). history of meteorology 8 (2017)   19 examination because, despite its idiosyncrasies, it is representative of “middle-border” knowledgemaking. by fusing experiential and statistical evidence, hinrichs managed to cope with the seemingly intractable problems facing gilded-age climate theorists: burgeoning but incomplete and unreliable data sets, multiplicities of contradicting climatic hypotheses, and growing, but occasionally hostile and alienating bureaucracies. hinrichs was born in 1836 in lunden, a city then located in denmark, and immigrated to the united states in 1861 because of political turmoil surrounding prussian unification. first settling in davenport, he then moved to iowa city in 1863 to work as a professor at the state university of iowa, where he taught foreign languages and physical sciences. a polymath, hinrichs conducted research in minerology, meteorology, medicine, geology, physics, and chemistry, earning some renown for his work on periodic laws.17 in 1875, hinrichs established the iowa state weather service and later took pride in having organized what he termed “the first state weather service of america.”18 his weather service operated continuously until 1889, when hinrichs moved to saint louis and his network was supplanted by the rival iowa weather and crop service, an organization affiliated with the us weather bureau.19 a mixture of personal, utilitarian, and theoretical goals motivated hinrichs’s efforts to develop the iowa state weather service. hinrichs envisioned his weather service and datagathering network as a project undertaken by the people of iowa, for the people of iowa. by collecting temperature, wind, and rainfall statistics, he argued, the weather service would “secure a faithful record of the conditions on which iowa’s prosperity depends and will continue to depend.”20 in his biennial reports, hinrichs stressed the importance of producing meteo-climatic information of immediate use to agriculturalists and others working in his adoptive state. while long-term climatic observations would inform the ongoing process of farming-based settlement,                                                                                                                           17 for biographical information on hinrichs, see the obituary by charles keyes in the iowa academy of science 30, 1923, 28-31. g. hinrichs papers, box 1, biography folder, university of iowa library, university archives, rg. 99.0039. 18 gustavus hinrichs, rainfall laws deduced from twenty years of observation, published by the authority of the secretary of agriculture (washington, dc: weather bureau, 1893), 77. 19 hinrichs moved to st. louis in 1889 and began teaching at washington university. in his sixth biennial report of the central station of the iowa weather service (des moines: g.h. ragsdale, state printer, 1889), hinrichs criticized the weather bureau for its poor scientific practices and its efforts to undermine his project. in one of his first reports, j.r. sage, the head of the weather bureau-affiliated iowa weather and crop service, fired back against hinrichs’s organization, citing the “defect in its management” and explaining how the iowa general assembly changed its support from hinrichs to his rivals. annual report of the iowa weather and crop service in co-operation with the u.s. department of agriculture, weather bureau, for the meteorological year 1890 (des moines: g.h. ragsdale, state printer, 1891), 6-7. 20 gustavus hinrichs, “a few facts about the iowa weather service,” feb 2, 1888, gustavus hinrichs papers, box 3, university of iowa library, university archives, rg99.0039. although hinrichs’s institutional home, the state university of iowa (later renamed the university of iowa, not to be confused with iowa state university in ames), predated the morrill act of 1862, his utilitarian outlook fits the guiding ethos of the new land grant schools. hinrichs’s emphasis on usable knowledge also mirrors the approach of late nineteenth and early-twentieth century “field stations” chronicled by jeremy vetter in his book field life: science in the american west during the railroad era (pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press, 2016). vetter writes that the “raison d’être of the station was often to satisfy a perceived demand for useful knowledge” (280). like the biological surveys and agricultural field stations described by vetter, hinrichs’s network helped bridge “experiential and cosmopolitan knowledge” (155). history of meteorology 8 (2017)   20 short-term meteorological studies would help iowans understand, cope with, and potentially predict destructive storms and tornadoes.21 hinrichs’s 1877 report offered a rousing defense of the iowa state weather service. data collected by his network, he claimed, had “conclusively demonstrated” the “intimate relation between the percentage surface covered with timber and the distribution of rainfall as to amount, frequency, and intensity, as well as the distribution of fertilizing thunder-storms.” hinrichs viewed weather patterns as dynamic and susceptible to human influences – mostly afforestation and deforestation – so he believed weather service “results” should “form the basis of rational legislation…having for its object the increase of healthfulness and fertility of entire regions of our state.”22 in other instances, however, hinrichs characterized the data supporting theories of human climatic influences as “apparently contradictory.” but he presented these doubts and contradictions as proof that his weather service should continue to carry out its work “by extended observation and reduction.”23 hinrichs constructed climatology as both a utilitarian endeavor and as a noble, esoteric science driven by curiosity for the unknown. he fused valenčius’s “everyday science” with the “pure science” described by paul lucier, seeking immediate material rewards while also uncovering mysteries and raising new questions about the sources of environmental and climatic changes.24 rainfall laws deduced from twenty years of observation, published in 1893, represents the culmination of hinrichs’s work in iowa and his efforts to meld citizen science and practical knowledge with complex statistical methods. in this work, hinrichs outlined a series of logarithmic equations for determining the relative agricultural utility of rainfall events. his experiences working in his “large garden” near the “bluffs of the iowa river” piqued his interest in juxtaposing the success of agricultural endeavors with rainfall statistics provided by volunteer observers. noting the inadequacy of simple precipitation totals and the influence of evaporation and runoff, hinrichs wrote that the “thrashing [sic] machine seemed to be entirely independent of my rain gauge.” as an alternative to simple rainfall numbers, hinrichs devised a series of “laws” and parameters that would transform meteorological statistics into dynamic tools in the service of agriculture. categories such as “total utilizable rains” and “total useless or damaging rains” would facilitate efforts to assess crop prospects. it is unclear whether hinrichs’s efforts succeeded in rendering multitudes of new weather statistics more useful and legible to farmers. still, rainfall laws highlights hinrichs’s belief that climatic laws and meteorological statistics would only beget uncertainty unless paired with material, quotidian realities.25 although the us weather bureau published hinrichs’s statistical tome, the iowan had a contentious relationship with the washington, dc-based scientific establishment. in 1891, the civilian u.s. department of agriculture took over the u.s. army signal service’s weather                                                                                                                           21 since hinrichs viewed meteorological and climatological research as intertwined, i use the term meteo-climatic to characterize his work. 22 gustavus hinrichs, “second annual report of the iowa state weather service,” printed as appendix to the report of the iowa state agricultural society for the year 1877, 624. 23 gustavus hinrichs, “rainfall and timber in iowa,” 199-200. 24 lucier, “the origins of pure and applied science.” 25 hinrichs, rainfall laws, see 17 for “large garden,” 13 for “thrashing machine,” and 15 for “total utilizable.” history of meteorology 8 (2017)   21 reporting network. the national network had been growing throughout the course of the 1870s and 1880s, sometimes collaborating with local and state-based organizations such as hinrichs’s. in iowa, however, scientific and personal conflicts prevented smooth cooperation. george e. curtis, a prominent federal bureaucrat and meteo-climatic theorist, published a scathing review of rainfall laws, calling various portions of the book “obscure” and “unnecessary.” curtis also took issue with hinrichs’s probabilistic approach to statistics, climate, and meteorology. 26 hinrichs cast similar aspersions upon the work of the “national weather bureau” and defended his choice to establish an independent state weather service in iowa. as if their “indifferent, if not hostile” attitude toward the iowa state weather service was not bad enough, hinrichs wrote, the us army signal corps, the weather bureau, and the smithsonian institution also carried out shoddy meteoclimatic science. in an 1887 report, he admonished the national weather bureaucracy for emphasizing “the production of so-called indications and probabilities” to “the detriment of real climatological study.” the iowan added that he hoped “a broader, a more scientific spirit” would “in time prevail in the management of the national weather service.”27 the conflict between hinrichs and national institutions may have arisen from his sometimes pugnacious personality. during his time at the state university of iowa, hinrichs clashed with administrators and fellow professors. in a decade-long effort to have the polymath dismissed, other faculty members at the university presented lists of grievances against hinrichs to the board of regents. they claimed that hinrichs belittled his colleagues “in his classrooms, on the street, at home, and abroad” even “to the extent of using profane language.” other disputes centered on hinrichs’s purportedly excessive salary and his supposed appropriation of university equipment, including an “electric lantern” and a “heliostat.”28 though his colleagues succeeded in having hinrichs dismissed from the collegiate faculty in 1886, students and several local newspapers came to hinrichs’s defense. the iowa city post, for example, decried the “most desperate and dastardly assaults upon the good name of dr. hinrichs.” the climate theorist lamented his dismissal, saying that he was “neither invited nor allowed to defend” himself.29 in the decades following his firing, many iowans and others sought to rehabilitate hinrichs. a 1923 obituary indicates that his allies and admirers to some extent succeeded in reclaiming the polymath’s reputation. its author, charles keyes, enumerated hinrichs’s scientific achievements in climatology, chemistry, and crystallography, while adding that the iowan had been “coldly received” in his home state but had garnered “loud applaudits everywhere throughout intellectual europe.”30                                                                                                                           26 see george e. curtis, “review of rainfall laws, deduced from twenty years’ observation,” the american meteorological journal 10 (apr 1894). for a study on the politics of probability and prediction in turn-of-the-century american meteorology, see jamie l. pietruska, “us weather bureau chief willis moore and the reimagination of uncertainty in long-range forecasting,” environment and history 17 (2011). 27 see hinrichs, “fifth biennial,” 5. 28 see daily register july 6, 1875, hinrichs papers, box 1, and “documents relating to the dismissal of dr. gustavus hinrichs,” hinrichs papers, box 1. 29 “documents relating to…,” hinrichs papers, box 1. 30 keyes, iowa academy of science 30 (1923). history of meteorology 8 (2017)   22 hinrichs’s personal squabbles notwithstanding, disagreement over the proper scale for conducting meteo-climatic research drove his clash with national scientific institutions. as phaedra daipha has argued, “the relative ease with which a wide variety of data could be collected intensified jurisdictional wars…over the merit of local weather versus local atmospheric systems, observation versus speculation, reportage of unusual weather versus global atmospheric systems.”31 james bergman has chronicled one such struggle over scale in his recent study on the blue hill (massachusetts) meteorological observatory. bergman demonstrates that late nineteenth-century efforts to centralize and “scale up” observation networks often raised new questions about the relationship between lay knowledge, local beliefs, and “universal” scientific knowledge.32 in the great plains, some scale-based “jurisdictional wars” centered on extreme weather events. hinrichs had a special interest in “destructive great storms,” and especially tornadoes. in an 1889 article, he published a map showing all recorded tornado tracks in iowa between 1875 and 1888, asking government scientists to “stop the manufacture of dire tornadoes” – in other words, to cease issuing exaggerated reports about tornado dangers in iowa.33 only local experience, he argued, would allow for a proper tracking and warning system. after describing a system of “weather flags” meant to communicate barometric changes to the community, hinrichs stated, “it is of supreme importance that our people should learn to help themselves, and not vainly rely upon a distant power which even at best cannot reach them until too late. weather telegrams are of greatest possible value, but only as aids to properly organized local work.”34 new technologies, he insisted, would be effective only if implemented on a state scale and in conjunction with local knowledge. as to the question of whether iowa “is big enough for a weather service,” hinrichs                                                                                                                           31 phaedra daipha, “weathering risk: uncertainty, weather forecasting, and expertise,” sociology compass 6 (2012): 18. for scale and climatology, see also deborah coen, “imperial climatographies from tyrol to turkestan,” osiris 26 (2011). 32 james bergman, “knowing their place: the blue hill observatory and the value of local knowledge in an era of synoptic weather forecasting, 1884-1894,” science in context 29 (2016). 33 for “destructive great storms,” see hinrichs, “second annual report,” 655. see also hinrichs, “tornadoes and derechos.” american meteorological journal vol 5, no. 9 (jan 1889). for a history of tornado forecasting and warning, see marlene bradford, “historical roots of modern tornado forecasts and warnings” weather and forecasting 14 (august 1999). 34 gustavus hinrichs, “first biennial report of the central station of the iowa weather service,” (des moines: f.m. mills, state printer, 1880), 22-23. jeremy vetter’s case study on early twentieth-century kansas analyzes the influence of telegraphs on amateur weather observation networks. see vetter, “lay observers, telegraph lines, and kansas weather: the field network as a mode of knowledge production,” science in context 24 (june 2011). vetter develops the concept of the “field network” – a “mode of knowledge production in modern science that has linked together geographically dispersed lay people whose activities are coordinated and directed from a central location” (259). he focuses on the “top-down coercive authority exerted by [us weather] bureau staff over subordinate collaborators” (275). technologies such as the telegraph, vetter argues, helped make weather observation networks ever more centralized and hierarchical. earlier organizations such as hinrichs’s shared many characteristics with the networks described by vetter. back in the 1870s and 1880s, however, local observation networks still struggled to incorporate telegraphy and other novel technologies into their quotidian scientific practice. as shown by hinrichs’s quote, the advent of telegraphy did not immediately give rise to large-scale systematization and national or regionalscale centralization. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   23 answered, “indeed it is,” because it was far bigger than “england, portugal, switzerland,” each of which had separate, state-supported weather services.35 though he invoked other nation-states to legitimize his work, hinrichs and his weather service cannot be cast as simple vehicles for state-driven modernization and centralization. national weather prediction systems and all-explaining theories of storm formation and climatic changes did not inspire hinrichs so much as the task of keeping a “faithful exposition of the actual conditions of the weather in iowa, so that our weather reports will continue to be of value long after views and theories shall have passed away.” hinrichs sought to “simplify and systematize” institutions and flows of information. in 1870, he founded the american scientific monthly, and stated that the journal would act as “an exponent” of “modern science,” “the spirit which is fashioning this age.”36 yet he espoused a capacious brand of modern science, one that included polymaths and resisted the hardening of discrete disciplines.37 perhaps hinrichs’s expansive interests made it hard for him to find a niche in the growing national scientific bureaucracy and meteo-climatic network. the friction between the iowa state weather service and the american scientific establishment also underscores pietruska’s interpretation of center-periphery theory. without flattening hierarchies of scientific infrastructure, pietruska demonstrates the constant contestation and renegotiation of centers and peripheries.38 data did not simply flow from the interior to nodes of knowledge production on the eastern seaboard and then, reconstituted as “science,” trickle back to the peripheries.39 while resisting encroachment from the national metropole, hinrichs created his own center of calculation in iowa city.40 his house in iowa city served as the “central station” of the data collection network.41 hinrichs’s home featured a three-story tower, its top two floors dedicated to                                                                                                                           35 hinrichs, “second annual report,” 623. 36 for “simplify and systematize,” see “first annual report,” 22. for “modern science” see gustavus hinrichs, american scientific monthly, edited and published by prof. gustavus hinrichs. vol. 1, no. 1 (july 1870), state historical society of iowa (q1.a8), 3. 37 david cahan describes the solidification of scientific titles and designations in nineteenth-century science in “looking at nineteenth-century science: an introduction,” in david cahan, ed., from natural philosophy to the sciences: writing the history of nineteenth-century science (chicago: university of chicago press, 2003), 4; see also “institutions and communities,” in cahan, from natural philosophy…, 297. along with “full-time devotion to and pay for scientific work” and “advanced well-defined educational credentials,” cahan views the university as the “principal institutional setting for science.” it is noteworthy that even though hinrichs worked for the state university of iowa, his weather service remained somewhat independent from the university’s institutional umbrella. this separation, i argue, reveals the persistence of popular and amateur science in an era of institutionalization. 38 pietruska, “hurricanes, crops, capital,” 410. 39 see ralph r. hamerla, an american scientist on the research frontier: edward morley, community, and radical ideas in nineteenth-century science (dordrecht, the netherlands: springer press, 2006), 2, and naylor, “nationalizing provincial science,” 409. 40 the concept of “center of calculation” is from bruno latour, science in action: how to follow scientists and engineers through society (cambridge, ma: harvard university press, 1987). 41 hinrichs’s home was built in 1879. see handwritten note on 1909 photograph of hinrichs’s house in university of iowa archives, hinrichs papers, photographs file. before his house was built, hinrichs used another observatory on church and clinton streets in iowa city. see ray wolf’s “brief history of gustavus hinrichs, discoverer of the derecho” http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/abtderechos/hinrichs/hinrichs.htm history of meteorology 8 (2017)   24 the weather service, and a rooftop balcony complete with weathervane, thermometer, hygrometer, and rain gauge (see figure 1). fig. 1. central station of the iowa state weather service, iowa city. from hinrichs, second biennial report of the central station of the iowa weather service (1882). though hinrichs conducted his own observations, his most arduous task was managing his network of volunteer observers. by 1877, hinrichs wrote, he could count on “eighty-seven volunteer observers representing as many stations.” i was unable to find archival evidence about these citizen scientists, their views on science, climate, weather, and politics, or about the nature of their relationship with the weather service’s founder. but the fact that hinrichs termed each observer a “station” indicates that he accorded some measure of respect and gratitude to the volunteers upon whom he depended. the weather service’s second annual report (1877) included a map showing the location of each volunteer observation station (see figure 2). history of meteorology 8 (2017)   25 fig. 2. stations of the iowa state weather service. from hinrichs, second annual report of the iowa state weather service (1877) in his reports and articles, hinrichs offered a glimpse into the challenge of creating an imagined community of science over such an expansive territory.42 he described iowa as a settler society marked by transience: “in our comparatively new state people change residence more frequently than in older states.” volunteer observers dropped out because of death, disease, or “neglect.”43 adding insult to injury, he complained, the national weather bureau “attempted to estrange our volunteers” during the 1880s.44 despite these difficulties, volunteers provided hinrichs with a flood of data. the polymath lamented the dearth of “clerical help” and spent long hours mailing, copying, and “office printing.” in 1878 alone, he claimed, “44,502 copies were made from 166 stencils.”45 creating tables, maps, and reports from data provided by volunteers presented another herculean task. “it should be remembered,” hinrichs wrote, “that in this work there is no cessation; every day brings its load of facts and data which have to be properly classified, recorded and disposed of.”46 hinrichs created a system of forms intended to facilitate correspondence with observers and ease the translation of data from the field into charts and                                                                                                                           42 david cahan discusses the formation of “imagined communities of science” in the nineteenth century. see david cahan, “introduction” in from natural philosophy to the sciences, 11. 43 hinrichs, “first biennial report,” 6. 44 hinrichs, “sixth biennial report,” 5. 45 hinrichs, “first biennial report,” 24. 46 hinrichs, “second biennial report of the central station of the iowa weather service” (des moines: f.m. mills, state printer, 1882), 31. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   26 eventually maps.47 the cartographic process, however, remained tedious. for example, an 1883 series of maps correlating timber areas with rainfall averages contained a staggering 26,082 rainfall measurements.48 the work proved so onerous that hinrichs wondered if it would be “imprudent” for him to continue his “personal sacrifice” and “expenditure of labor and money.”49 despite his rhetoric about advancing “modern science,” hinrichs sometimes agonized that his work might be “thoroughly useless.”50 with the popularization of science across the united states, new journals and meteo-climatic theories proliferated, creating a cacophony of voices.51 the contributions of the iowa state weather service risked being lost in this chaotic scientific cauldron. hinrichs reassured himself and his volunteers with the hope that “every true observation made by any of our observers at any station in iowa will…constitute an additional link in the chain which binds the past to the future.”52 since hinrichs found hope in the notion of a growing web of meteo-climatic knowledge, he may have been reassured to find that in 1893, corydon p. cronk of the maryland state weather service cited the contributions of his weather service: “in the state of iowa it has been conclusively proven, by the records of the state weather service, that the annual rainfall is more evenly distributed throughout the year in the more heavily wooded portions of the state.” bolstered by data from iowa, cronk made strident claims about forests’ influence on climate patterns. he even speculated that afforestation and reforestation might offer “protection from the tornado” by preventing the “overheating of the earth’s surface” and thus diminishing the “energy of these storms and…lessen[ing] the frequency of tornadoes.”53 cronk likely derived his inferences from cartographic series created by hinrichs (see figure 3), perhaps the map series that required over 26,000 observations. yet his claims maintained none of the uncertainties and qualifications that appeared in hinrichs’s work.                                                                                                                           47 hinrichs, “second annual report,” 622. 48 gustavus hinrichs, notes on cloud forms and the climate of iowa, central station, i.w.s. (iowa weather service), 1883. 49 hinrichs, “second annual report,” 625. though the state of iowa provided some financial support after 1878, hinrichs shouldered much of the weather service’s financial burden himself. see wolf, “brief history of gustavus hinrichs.” 50 for “thoroughly useless,” see hinrichs, “third biennial report of the central station of the iowa weather service” (des moines: george e. roberts, state printer, 1883), 5. 51 for an overview of the dramatic rise of popular science in the gilded-age united states, see rebecca edwards, new spirits: americans in the gilded age, 1865-1905 (oxford: oxford university press, 2006), 151-169. citing magazines such as popular science monthly, scientific american, and science, edwards argues that “america became a nation of scientific enthusiasts” (160). 52 hinrichs, “third biennial report,” 5. hinrichs’s doubt over his work’s significance underscores the historian jeremy vetter’s argument about the paradoxical nature of scientific universalism. “the desire to attain knowledge that can be applied to all times and places,” he writes, “has been an overriding ambition of modern science.” but the drive to create universalist knowledge “has not always worked to produce pragmatically useful and environmentally sustainable knowledge on the ground in particular places.” see vetter, field life, 338. hinrichs and his network show that the modern drive to create universally applicable knowledge both created and relied upon cryptic, uncertain forms of local knowledge. 53 c. (corydon) p. cronk, “influence of forests on climate and agriculture,” maryland state weather service monthly report 3, 6 (us department of agriculture, weather bureau, october 1893), 57-58. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   27 fig. 3. hinrichs, second annual report of the iowa state weather service (1877), 624. cronk may have been referring to these maps (or to similar map series made by hinrichs) in his 1893 article. hinrichs wrote that the “distribution of the shading expressing the amount of rainfall (in inches) shows a close relation to the distribution of the shading marking the percentage of the surface covered with timber.” thus, he argued, the maps “furnish abundant material support” for the theory that society could influence climatic patterns through afforestation and deforestation. though the iowan did pronounce that he had “conclusively demonstrated” forest influences on climate, he often followed his statements with calls for further research. cronk’s use of hinrichs’s research offers a glimpse into the circuitous networks of knowledge circulation in the gilded-age united states. the diffusion of information and its interpretations was not one-way: climate theory sometimes flowed from west to east along with data. and the re-use and re-framing of information at each center of calculation created layer upon layer of uncertainty. syncretic science historians have sometimes characterized theories of local and regional forest-climatic influences as “mythological conceptions,” as the last vestiges of naturalistic, folkloric, and pseudo-scientific paradigms.54 yet gilded-age climatological and meteorological writings from the “middle border” offer more evidence of continuity and syncretism than of a straightforward transition from naturalistic beliefs to data-derived scientific knowledge. as david livingstone and charles withers have observed, nineteenth-century scientific thinkers inhabited multiple spaces and “operated different moral and epistemic economies.”55 cronk, hinrichs, and others employed both quantitative and anecdotal, observational evidence. after invoking hinrichs’s statistical studies,                                                                                                                           54 paul travis, “changing climate in kansas: a late 19th-century myth.” kansas history vol. 1, no.1 (spring 1978): 50. 55 charles withers and david livingstone, “thinking geographically about nineteenth-century science” in withers and livingstone, eds, geographies of nineteenth century science (chicago: chicago university press, 2011), 5. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   28 for example, cronk remarked, “the traveler who now crosses the continent through the states of iowa, kansas, or nebraska will see the strong belts of forest trees which the laws of the states have compelled the owners of land to plant. the results have been marked. the rainfall is more evenly distributed.”56 cronk and hinrichs appealed to agriculturalists and potential volunteer observers while also attempting to elucidate complex natural laws. they employed different lexicons to engage with different audiences in seeking financial, institutional, and moral support. despite – and at times because of – their syncretic approach, hinrichs and his contemporaries took part in “boundary work,” the strategic practice of attempting to exclude other authorities from the scientific realm.57 some proved adept at a peculiar juggling act: policing the boundaries of science while also working to “translate” between different ways of knowing.58 in addition to polymaths and institution-builders such as hinrichs, other euro-americans engaged in a vigorous debate over the proper parameters of meteo-climatic science. s.l. dosher, a manistee, michigan, based observer for the national weather bureau, found fault with the persistence of naturalistic impressions in climatological studies. in 1893, dosher penned a letter to the american meteorological journal, a periodical that published contributions from prominent government scientists as well as hinrichs and similar figures. vague impressions drawn from hazy memories, dosher insisted, could only give rise to fallacious climatic theories. “whenever there occurs a period of extreme heat, a long wet spell or dry spell or even a period of exceedingly fine weather,” he wrote, “people will always claim that no such weather ever occurred before.” dosher alleged that such misconceptions engendered the “general opinion prevailing that the climate of our country is changing, especially with reference to the winters, which, it is often claimed, are growing milder.” dosher found no evidence of climatic change, anthropogenic or otherwise, in the records of multiple weather bureau stations.59 some “middle border” climate theorists shared dosher’s belief that only data collection could offer definitive solutions to scientific quandaries. in 1878, for example, the kansan isaac noyes expressed his belief that efforts to collect “daily facts” would “enlighten mankind with the mysteries that preside over the natural phenomena that govern the weather.” quantitative triumphalism, however, did not always foster consensus on the contentious question of humaninduced climatic changes. unlike dosher, noyes allowed for the possibility of climatic changes                                                                                                                           56 cronk, “influence of forests,” 58. cronk may be referring to the federal timber culture act of 1873 or to statesponsored afforestation initiatives such as the arbor day movement. 57 see thomas gieryn, cultural boundaries of science: credibility on the line (chicago: chicago university press, 1999), 15-18. gieryn identifies three types of boundary work. my main concern here is with the category he terms “exclusion” – the exclusion of certain figures, methods, and practices as unscientific. 58 for “translation,” see tilley, “global histories, vernacular science…,” 112, 117. as sara b. pritchard has argued, boundary work “has the potential to be generative and empowering, sometimes even counter-hegemonic.” see pritchard, “joining environmental history with science and technology studies: promises, challenges, and contributions,” in new natures, eds. pritchard, finn arne jorgensen, dolly jorgensen (pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press, 2013), 13. 59 letter from s.l. dosher, american meteorological journal 9, 10 (feb 1893). history of meteorology 8 (2017)   29 and supported the notion that society could influence weather patterns.60 the decade and a half that elapsed between the publication of noyes and dosher’s pieces cannot entirely explain this difference of opinion, as hinrichs and many others employed data-based approaches to support theories of anthropogenic climate change well into the 1890s.61 like dosher, some great plains climate theorists sought to purge climate discourse of what one iowa horticulturalist termed “moonshine notions.”62 at the same time, climate-related newspaper stories such as the topeka daily tribune’s 1879 “bogus science against experience and common sense” show that some great plains euro-americans valued “practical knowledge” over “science.”63 much of this hostility toward high science and its exponents originated in suspicion of eastern elites, a resentment that would find political expression in the populist party of the 1890s.64 but a broad cross-section of gilded-age scientific thinkers attempted to incorporate folkloric beliefs within quantitative methodologies such as those employed by scientists in eastern metropoles. some great plains polymaths, horticulturists, newspapermen, and university “men of science” seemed to take their cue from john trowbridge. an easterner and professor of physics at harvard, trowbridge authored an 1872 popular science monthly piece arguing that “great fires” have “with some probability of truth…an influence upon the production of rain.” he derived his hypotheses from folkloric notions about rainstorms following fires and admonished colleagues who dismissed folk beliefs out of hand: “the attitude of scientific men in regard to so-called popular fallacies and superstitions is not, in general, a praiseworthy one. a belief needs only to be widespread among the people at large to be denounced.” trowbridge conducted a series of electrical experiments in his laboratory in an effort to simulate the effect of fires on atmospheric conditions. though unable to rule out uncertainties arising from his methods, he found that the experiments affirmed naturalistic impressions about large-scale fires triggering rainstorms.65 as a proponent of laboratory experiments, trowbridge participated in an ongoing debate about the relationship among natural philosophy, pure science, applied science, and engineering. the historian of science ronald kline has highlighted the fluid,                                                                                                                           60 isaac p. noyes, “a new view of the weather question,” the kansas city review of science and industry 2 (july 1878), see 218-219 for “weather mystery,” 227 for a discussion of climate change. 61 hinrichs, rainfall laws; for another 1890s source using measurements to endorse climatic influences, see “influence of groves on the moisture content of the air” by l.c. corbett (west virginia university, morgantown, vw), the forester 3, 4 (april 1, 1897). 62 for a description of forest-climate influence theories as “moonshine notions,” see mr. foster’s remarks in “discussion of meteorology,” transactions of the iowa state horticultural society for 1879 (des moines: f.m. mills, state printer, 1880), 486. 63 weekly tribune (topeka, ks), mar 27, 1879, kansas state historical society, rain and rainfall clippings. 64 see, for example, mr. holton’s remarks quoted in wilber, great valleys and prairies, 81. holton voiced his disdain for “philosophers” and “a certain class of scientists,” experts who disputed theories of human-induced climatic improvement. for a recent study on populism, see noam maggor, brahmin capitalism: frontiers of wealth and populism in america’s first gilded age (cambridge, ma: harvard university press, 2017). 65 john trowbridge, “great fires and rain-storms,” the popular science monthly (december 1872), 206, 211. the great chicago fire, peshtigo fire, and other massive conflagrations of the early 1870s spurred an interest in investigating the role of fires in shaping weather patterns. see also jonathan periam, “forest tree planting, as a means of wealth,” transactions of the illinois state horticultural society for 1871 (chicago: reade, brewster, & co., 1872), 34-35. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   30 ever-evolving meaning of each of these fields.66 on the one hand, contestation over the boundaries of emerging disciplines gave rise to purity discourses: efforts to expunge purportedly illegitimate epistemologies. on the other hand, it created openings for people such as trowbridge to draw from folklore and popular impressions. trowbridge used popular beliefs and anecdotes only as a starting point, as a means of devising a hypothesis to be tested in a laboratory. some “middle border” climate writers, by contrast, considered evidence drawn from experience and observation alongside evidence obtained by measurement.67 in the work of j.l. budd, a member of the iowa board of forestry, experiential evidence filled gaps and voids in the statistical record. budd presented a paper titled “possible modification of our prairie climate” to the 1887 meeting of the american forestry congress in illinois. his presentation aimed to find explanations for recent crop failures in iowa. “ordinary meteorological tables,” he argued, “are not sufficiently detailed to throw light on the influence of the weather on agricultural and horticultural crops.” making no apparent reference to the efforts of his fellow iowan hinrichs, budd described iowa’s statistical record as too brief to reveal anything more than “probable causes for known effects.” he relied on the evidence of personal experience for proof of these “probable causes.” ironically, budd’s experiences and observations prompted him to identify plowing as the cause of iowa’s agricultural and climatic troubles. since vast swaths of the state’s land had been “turned with the plow,” winds “from all westerly points now literally pass over a dry heated soil in a dry period, which drinks up with hungry avidity the moisture of the air.” according to the iowan, “methodical forestry planting” could act as a “complete or partial remedy” for the “climatic troubles” created by plowing. the crux of budd’s argument – the causal factor at the core of the purported “modification” of climate – originated from naturalistic impression and observation. in the absence of empirical evidence, he relied on his own experience on the land to prove plowed soil’s ability to draw moisture from passing air masses. for budd, experience and anecdote served to infuse some certainty into the probabilistic frameworks of statistical climatology.68 great plains climate theorists invoked popular impression and the weight of experience for varying purposes, sometimes to endorse theories of human influence on climate and sometimes to cast doubt on such notions. in 1878, for example, william tompkins of the larned press (kansas) cited anecdotal evidence of dew formation to show climatic continuity. the newspaper claimed that dew formed with as much frequency in 1873, when native americans still “roamed over the land,” as in succeeding years, after euro-americans had plowed thousands of acres of soil near larned.69 as shown by tompkins’s piece, the eclectic range of gilded-age climate discourse                                                                                                                           66 ronald kline, “construing ‘technology’ as ‘applied science:’ public rhetoric of scientists and engineers in the united states, 1880-1945,” isis 86 (1995): 194-198. 67 for a classic study on the politics and implications associated with invoking the “evidence of experience,” see joan scott, “the evidence of experience,” critical inquiry 17 (1991). 68 j.l. budd, (iowa board of forestry), “possible modification of our prairie climate,” sixth annual meeting of the american forestry congress, (springfield, il: state register book and job print, 1887) 20-22. 69 larned press (kansas), aug 8, 1878. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   31 cannot be distilled into a simple dichotomy: folkloric proponents of climatic improvement or desiccation versus quantitative modernizers who refuted climate change theses. perhaps no figure better reflects the syncretic character of great plains meteo-climatic science than frank h. snow. snow’s views on climate mirrored budd’s theories more than those of his fellow kansan tompkins. a polymath with interests ranging from entomology to botany to meteorology, snow published a series of articles on climate and climatic change between the 1870s and 1890s. though his career in some ways paralleled hinrichs’s, snow proved more adept at climbing institutional hierarchies than his contemporary from iowa. he began teaching mathematics and natural sciences at the university of kansas in 1866 and ascended to the position of chancellor in 1890. like hinrichs, snow earned greatest renown outside the fields of meteorology and climatology, garnering recognition for his discovery of a fungus useful in combatting chinch bugs, a scourge on agriculture.70 snow’s wide-ranging interests informed his approach to meteo-climatic questions: he employed different methodologies and sought to reconcile experiential evidence with statistical records. in 1873, snow trumpeted the “selfregistering instruments” and “automatic [apparatuses]” employed by the university of kansas’s meteorological station. although he supplemented data from the university observation station with numbers from smithsonian institution observers, snow believed that 50 years of weather records would be necessary to determine the accuracy of climate change hypotheses. in the absence of such statistics, snow made recourse to popular sentiments. he viewed naturalistic impressions as a stopgap but implied that they carried inherent weight and authenticity, especially when attributed to the “oldest residents of kansas.”71 snow believed that euro-american settlement had increased rainfall amounts in kansas through a variety of means, ranging from plowing to prairie fire prevention to the replacement of “short buffalo grass” with “longer and heavier grasses.”72 lacking statistical proof for increases in annual rainfall, snow offered experiential evidence that human agency had rendered his state’s climate more equable. in an 1871 letter to his fellow kansan c.c. hutchinson, snow argued that “it certainly would be legitimate to cite the evidence of many of our ‘old settlers’ to the fact that the rain fall is more evenly distributed now than ten years ago, coming at shorter intervals and more gently, and that single storms, or showers, extend more hours than formerly.” “this belief,” snow added, “i have often heard from our most intelligent citizens.”73 for a primarily agricultural society such as 1870s kansas, rainfall distribution mattered nearly as much as annual rainfall totals. as hinrichs observed in rainfall laws, brief and violent rainfall events could cause more harm than good. the allure of reliable climates could act as a strong enticement for prospective                                                                                                                           70 for biographical information on snow, see f.h. snow file 2/6/6 and finding aid, spencer library, university of kansas. 71 frank h. snow, “climate of kansas.” report submitted to alfred gray, secretary state agricultural society, january 1st, 1873, see 1 for “instruments” and “apparatus” and 8 for “oldest residents.” snow alluded only to the memories of the oldest euro-american residents, entirely eliding native american experience and knowledge. 72 snow, “climate of kansas,” 7-8. 73 a letter from f.h. snow is cited by clinton carter hutchinson’s resources of kansas: fifteen years experience (topeka, ks: published by the author, 1871), 37. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   32 settlers, and kansans such as snow had an interest in attracting more emigrants and development to their state. indeed, it is telling that hutchinson published snow’s assessments in resources of kansas, a document meant to attract agricultural settlers. he may have been more willing to gesture toward settler perceptions in a general audience publication than in a more formal scientific publication. yet snow cannot be dismissed as a booster-scientist or mere huckster. in an 1885 piece, snow tempered optimistic expectations for human-induced climatic improvement. he described society’s influences on climate as “local oscillations” and voiced his skepticism about the notion that euro-american settlement would transform semi-arid regions such as western kansas.74 in the same 1885 article, snow identified a frustrating aspect of data-driven climatology. he lamented that the us army signal corps had used incomplete records to question possible climatic changes in the great plains. snow seemed to grasp some of the problems at the core of gilded-age meteo-climatic science: quantification created an unquenchable thirst for ever more data while sets of numbers could be deployed to prove any number of theories. faced with these obstacles, theorists such as snow created a holistic form of meteo-climatic science that included folklore, anecdote, and experience. the fusion of quantitative and qualitative methods allowed snow and some of his contemporaries to cope with the uncertainty inherent to meteorology and climatology.75 by the 1890s, however, snow began to change his approach. he presented a paper at the 1895 annual meeting of the kansas state board of agriculture titled “periodicity of kansas rainfall and possibilities of storage of excess rainfall.” after 27 years of consistent observation and measurement at his station in lawrence, kansas, snow claimed to have found a regular, sevenyear repeating pattern of dry and wet periods. in this instance, snow argued that “the common people failed to recognize the periodicity of rainfall” before remarking that “eastern meteorologists have called attention to a similar periodicity.”76 his shift away from folkloric and experiential evidence attests to the changing nature of great plains vernacular science. impressionistic evidence continued to shape meteo-climatic discourse long after the turn of the century. yet it took on an ever more peripheral role, underscoring the crystallization of scientific disciplines and the standardization and quantification of meteorology and climatology in the early twentieth century.                                                                                                                           74 f.h. snow, “is the rainfall of kansas increasing?” kansas city review of science and industry 8. (kansas city: press of ramsey, millet, and hudson, 1885), 458. 75 for a discussion of “regimes of high uncertainty” in meteorology, see daipha, “weathering risk,” 15-16. 76 f.h. snow, “periodicity of kansas rainfall and possibilities of storage of excess rainfall,” ninth biennial report of the kansas state board of agriculture (topeka: edwin h. snow, state printer, 1895), 338-339. perhaps because of its biblical undertones, the notion of seven-year cyclicality resonated with great plains climate theorists during the 1890s. the severe droughts of the late 1880s and early 1890s, which followed a series of wet years, may also have helped give rise to cyclical climate theories. for another example of a kansan espousing theories of seven-year climatic cycles, see e.c. (edward charles) murphy, “is the rainfall in kansas increasing?” transactions of the kansas academy of science, vol. 13 (topeka: press of the hamilton printing company, 1893), 19. see lehmann, “wither climatology” for a study of repeating patterns and oscillations in turn-of-the-century climatology. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   33 snow’s 1895 presentation also bore the hallmarks of turn-of-the-century progressivism: concerns with utilitarian efficiency and careful resource management. building reservoirs, he wrote, would allow kansas to store rainfall from wet years “in such a way as to be of service in the following months or seasons when the precipitation is below average.” snow speculated that these storage reservoirs might also “increase the humidity of the atmosphere” and “reduce to an injurious minimum” damaging hot winds.77 hinrichs and cronk’s reports certainly prefigured snow’s progressive turn toward efficiency. but the kansan’s later work reflects a shift away from sweeping efforts to induce and catalog climatic changes and toward a potentially systematized management of climatic variability. snow never implemented his reservoir construction plan, and his theory of seven-year cycles did not gain much traction beyond the great plains. still, his shift away from experiential vernacular science reflects the increasing, if incomplete, marginalization of folkloric climate discourse around the turn of the century. conclusion snow’s adoption of progressive utilitarianism shows that “middle border” scientific syncretism involved more than just the fusion of quantitative and qualitative methods. other intellectual currents shaped gilded-age meteo-climatic science. medical geography and enviro-climatic determinism, for example, found their way into snow’s work.78 in an 1876 essay on “climate and brains” published by the kansas academy of science, m.v.b. knox invoked snow’s climatic expertise: “it has been suggested by prof. f.h. snow, that the general dryness of the atmosphere in kansas may prove favorable to brain-workers.” knox also explained how countries located in areas with propitious climates, especially those located in northern europe, had surpassed other areas in terms of cultural productions.79 according to knox and snow’s logic, only euroamericans benefited from kansas’s salubrious climate, or else native american inhabitants of the state would have eclipsed them in intelligence. in some instances, as in snow and hinrichs’s work, medical geography appeared alongside theories of human-induced climate improvement. hinrichs, a cautious proponent of forest-induced climate improvement, cited the influence of changing climates on “the state of health of the body and mind” as a rationale for supporting “special institutions for…accurate observation,” such as his own iowa state weather service.80 yet hinrichs’s stance vis-a-vis climatic influences on society differed from those of knox and snow. his theories of climatic dynamism and his support of complex climate improvement theses prevented him from endorsing simplistic and deterministic climate theories.                                                                                                                           77 snow, “periodicity,” 339-340. 78 for a discussion of geographies of health in the late nineteenth-century west, see gregg mitman, “geographies of hope: mining the frontiers of health in denver and beyond.” osiris 19 (2004). 79 m.v.b. knox, “climate and brains,” transactions of the kansas academy of science 5 (topeka, kansas: george w. martin, publishing house, 1877), 5-9. 80 hinrichs, “first biennial report,” 5. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   34 though not all gilded-age vernacular scientists endorsed them, deterministic climate theories such as knox’s proliferated throughout gilded-age culture. in the mississippi valley, a triumphal and expansionist book intended for popular audiences, j.w. foster echoed knox by writing that “however much he boasts of his dominion over matter, [man] is the creature of climate.”81 by depicting euro-americans as the sole beneficiaries of climatic influences, writings including knox and foster’s served to legitimize capitalist expansionism as well as the dispossession and genocide of native americans. the political and cultural implications of climatic determinism underscore the imbrication of science and politics in the gilded age. as david singerman has argued, in the late nineteenth century united states, increasing numbers of people realized that “scientific knowledge, far from being the inevitable ally of accountability and good governance, could just as easily be deployed to obfuscate and confuse, and thereby to wrest control of social and economic power.”82 in a sense, the syncretic and eclectic character of gilded-age climate science may have facilitated the strategic obfuscation described by singerman. in another sense, perhaps, it may have flattened social hierarchies and allowed more people to participate in the contestation and production of scientific knowledge. throughout this piece, i have tried to emphasize continuity, the persistence of experiential, anecdotal science, as well as the messiness and false dawns that marked local, participatory data collection projects such as hinrichs’s. yet the project of “relocating meteorology” in the gilded-age “middle border” remains incomplete. even embattled and sometimes reviled figures such as hinrichs wielded far more influence than volunteer observers. the voices of hinrichs and his rivals still dominate those of farmers, agriculturalists, and others who contributed to the project of vernacular science as much as bureaucrats and polymaths. at the same time, however, the writings of figures such as hinrichs and snow offer a fleeting glimpse into an intricate scientific universe that has largely gone unrecorded. acknowledgements i would like to thank angelo caglioti, martin mahony, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. sarah bellemare, sara pritchard, and aaron sachs provided support and advice on earlier drafts of this paper. i am also grateful for the financial support of cornell university’s history department, cornell university’s american studies program, the american meteorological society, the forest history society, the new york state library, the cornell institute for social sciences, and the american geographical society library.                                                                                                                           81 j.w. foster, the mississippi valley (chicago: s.c. griggs and company, 1869), xi, see also 356-357. 82 david singerman, “science, commodities, and corruption in the gilded age,” journal of the gilded age and progressive era 15 (2016): 290. microsoft word 4zworykin_weather_proposal.doc history of meteorology 4 (2008) 57 outline of weather proposal october 1945 vladimir k. zworykin radio corporation of america princeton, new jersey, usa v.k. zworykin, outline of weather proposal, october 1945. princeton, nj: rca laboratories, 1945, 12 p. + appendices, copy in the harry wexler papers, box 18, manuscript division, library of congress. introduction1 in october 1945 vladimir k. zworykin, associate research director at the radio corporation of america (rca) laboratory in princeton wrote his influential, but now all but forgotten mimeographed “outline of weather proposal.” he began by discussing the importance to meteorology of accurate prediction, which he thought was entering a new era. modern communication systems were beginning to allow the systematic compilation of scattered and remote observations, and new computing equipment was becoming available that could either solve the equations of atmospheric motion or at least search quickly for statistical regularities and past analogue weather conditions. he imagined “an automatic plotting board” that would quickly digest and display all this information. zworykin suggested that “exact scientific weather knowledge” might allow for effective weather control. if a perfectly accurate machine could be developed that could predict the immediate future state of the atmosphere and identify the precise time and location of leverage points or locations sensitive to rapid storm development, then intervention might be possible. a paramilitary rapid deployment force might then be deployed to intervene in the weather as it happens—literally to pour oil on troubled ocean waters or use physical barriers, giant flame throwers or even atomic bombs to disrupt storms before they formed, deflect them from populated areas, and otherwise control the weather. zworykin suggested a study of the origins and tracks of hurricanes, with a view to their prediction, prevention, and even diversion. even long-term climatic changes could be engineered by large-scale geographical modification projects involving such areas as deserts, glaciers, and mountainous regions. in effect numerical zworykin, outline of weather control 58 experimentation using computer models would guide field experiments and interventions in both weather and climate. according to zworykin: the eventual goal to be attained is the international organization of means to study weather phenomena as global phenomena and to channel the world’s weather, as far as possible, in such a way as to minimize the damage from catastrophic disturbances, and otherwise to benefit the world to the greatest extent by improved climatic conditions where possible. such an international organization may contribute to world peace by integrating the world interest in a common problem and turning scientific energy to peaceful pursuits. it is conceivable that eventual far-reaching beneficial effects on the world economy may contribute to the cause of peace (original emphasis). john von neumann formally endorsed zworykin’s view in a letter enclosed with the proposal dated 24 october 1945. von neumann wrote, “i agree with you completely. . . . this would provide a basis for scientific approach[es] to influencing the weather.” using computergenerated predictions, von neumann envisioned that weather and climate systems “could be controlled, or at least directed, by the release of perfectly practical amounts of energy” or by “altering the absorption and reflection properties of the ground or the sea or the atmosphere.” it was a project that neatly fit von neumann’s overall agenda and philosophy: “all stable processes we shall predict. all unstable processes we shall control.” zworykin’s proposal also contained a long endorsement by the noted oceanographer athelstan spilhaus, then a u.s. army major, who ended his letter of 6 november 1945, with these words: “in weather control, meteorology has a new goal worthy of its greatest efforts.” note 1 james r. fleming, “fixing the sky: the checkered history of weather and climate control,” columbia university press, forthcoming. jfleming text box history of meteorology 59 jfleming text box hom 60 jfleming text box hom 61 jfleming text box hom 62 jfleming text box hom 63 jfleming text box hom 64 jfleming text box hom 65 jfleming text box hom 66 jfleming text box hom 67 jfleming text box hom 68 jfleming text box hom 69 jfleming text box hom 70 jfleming text box hom 71 jfleming text box hom 72 jfleming text box hom 73 jfleming text box hom 74 jfleming text box hom 75 jfleming text box hom 76 jfleming text box hom 77 jfleming text box hom 78 41zworykin.pdf 42zworykin.pdf zworykin0a.jpg zworykin0b.jpg zworykin01.jpg zworykin02.jpg zworykin03.jpg zworykin04.jpg zworykin05.jpg zworykin06.jpg zworykin07.jpg zworykin08.jpg zworykin09.jpg zworykin10.jpg zworykin11.jpg zworykin12.jpg zworykin13vn1.jpg zworykin14vn2.jpg zworykin15as1.jpg zworykin16as2.jpg zworykin17as3.jpg zworykin18as4.jpg the weather watchers: amateur climatologists and environmental consciousness, 1810-20 history of meteorology 7 (2015) 14 14 the weather watchers: amateur climatologists and environmental consciousness, 1810-20 sean munger mmunger@uoregon.edu university of oregon in the early nineteenth century, enthusiastic observers of weather phenomena, armed with freelyavailable meteorological instruments like thermometers, barometers and wind gauges, kept detailed and systematic records of weather conditions in various locations. these observers— who i term “weather watchers”—neither identified themselves as professional scientists nor were generally regarded as such by peers, yet they searched for broad patterns in their data and used it to construct scientific-sounding theories about how they thought weather and climate worked. the theories themselves were unpersuasive and bordered on the fanciful, but they did exemplify an interesting conception of the environment as existing in two interrelated layers with vastly different scope and construction. this dual-layered environmental consciousness becomes especially clear during the second decade of the nineteenth century, a period of temporary global climate change driven by a series of volcanic eruptions. public fascination with the weather and climate events of this “cold decade” were both a motivating factor for the weather watchers’ search for predictive patterns and also provided them a unique opportunity to address a largely unfilled demand for meteorological information in the press. this paper will explore these dimensions of the weather watchers and their thinking by profiling three particular examples from the united states and britain: thomas jefferson, george mackenzie and luke howard. in doing so, students of the history of meteorology and climatology may appreciate the usefulness of the cold decade as a lens to bring into clearer focus the environmental thinking of the era. in february or march 1809, a large volcanic eruption deposited matching layers of volcanic fallout—principally sulfur dioxide, so2—on the ice sheets of both greenland and antarctica, which was discovered in ice cores taken two centuries later. exactly which mountain erupted in 1809 is unknown, but only an eruption of considerable magnitude, and one occurring in the tropics, can account for the fallout observed at both poles. 1 six years later an even greater volcanic event, the april 1815 blast of mt. tambora in the east indies, filled the earth’s stratosphere with so much so2 that the resulting series of weather anomalies marked 1816 in 1 jihong cole-dai, david ferris, alyson lanciki, joël savarino, mélanie baroni, mark h. thiemens, “cold decade (ad 1810-1819) caused by tambora (1815) and another (1809) stratospheric volcanic eruption, geophysical research letters, vol. 36, l22703 (2009), 1-2, 5. mailto:mmunger@uoregon.edu history of meteorology 7 (2015) 15 15 europe and america as the “year without summer.” 2 yet as well-known as the 1816 anomalies are, the entire decade of the 1810s was characterized by significantly below-average temperatures worldwide; mountain x and tambora acted in tandem to plunge the world into a “cold decade” unmatched in meteorological history for the past 500 years. 3 observers and recorders of weather phenomena have been the subject of significant historical studies, often relating to how observers affected the development of the scientific disciplines of meteorology and climatology, or particular institutions related to weather study. the term “weather watchers” or “storm watchers” is often applied to such observers, whether or not they self-identified as scientific or meteorological professionals. 4 my use of the term “weather watchers” in this paper is generally evocative of these approaches, with a few important boundaries. what i term weather watchers are people defined largely by what they did—observe and record the weather for a significant period of time and in some systematic fashion, however imperfectly—and not by the status they held or how they were viewed by others. in the 1810s, an era before most of the institutionalization and specialization of science as we know it today developed, attempts to demarcate amateurs from professionals are largely arbitrary. although the competence and usefulness of weather watchers to meteorology as a whole was hotly debated in the period, for example in britain’s royal society, 5 for purposes of my analysis the activity of weather observation and recording is significant because those who did it believed they were doing something useful or even revolutionary for science, 6 whether or not contemporaries or historians agreed with them. the weather watchers of the 1810s were part of a long tradition. observers and recorders of weather phenomena were quite active, for example, in britain and on the continent from the middle of the 17th century and through the enlightenment era. many of the enlightenment-era weather watchers, however—like john locke or petrus van musschenbroek—tended to be natural philosophers who sought weather data specifically as a means to illustrate the functioning of broader natural laws. 7 the cold decade was different in two respects relevant to the context in which weather watchers operated. first, meteorology was in a transitional phase in the 1810s, moving from the traditional qualitative and descriptive approach of the early modern period toward a new emphasis, first advocated by science writers at the end of the 18th century, on quantitative measurement and the understanding of empirical data. 8 the weather watchers of this period were thus less inclined to use their data to validate philosophical notions about the universe, and more inclined to do the reverse: that is, to develop theories for the purpose of proving the significance of their data. secondly, the anomalies of the cold decade coincided 2 michael rampino, stephen self & richard b. stothers, “volcanic winters,” ann. rev. earth planet. sci. 16 (1988): 73-99 3 cole-dai, “cold decade,” 5. 4 see, e.g., john d. cox, storm watchers: the turbulent history of weather prediction from franklin’s kite to el niño (hoboken, nj: john wiley & sons, 2002); david day, the weather watchers: 100 years of the bureau of meteorology (melbourne: melbourne university publishing, 2007). 5 vladimir janković, reading the skies: a cultural history of english weather 1650-1820 (chicago: university of chicago press, 2000), 161-62. 6 see, e.g., the summations of thomas jefferson in his “weather book” and george mackenzie’s reckoning of his own importance to the history of science, discussed below. 7 lorraine daston, “unruly weather: natural law confronts natural variability,” in natural law and the laws of early modern europe, ed. lorraine daston and michael stolleis (burlington: ashgate, 2008), 233, 237-40. 8 janković, reading the skies, 158-64. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 16 16 with an increased public demand for better understanding of meteorological phenomena, as will be discussed below. the case studies i will present here exemplify how these weather watchers in the united states and britain viewed the physical environment of the atmosphere, the heavens and the local world around them. the three men profiled here approached their activities from different backgrounds but they had significant commonalities. all were white and of generally high socioeconomic status. though not strictly urban none were strangers to cities, yet most of their measurements were taken in the countryside. the basis of their meteorological knowledge stemmed not from devoted scientific study but from personal observation and experience rooted in their daily lives, similar to the post-world war ii amateur meteorologists of britain discussed in alexander hall’s work. 9 each of these weather watchers possessed most or all of the usual weapons from the meteorologist’s arsenal: thermometer, barometer, rain gauge and clock. although these weather watchers’ environmental consciousness was shared by many people across american and english society, what distinguished a true weather watcher from the rest of the population was his diligence in keeping empirical weather observations and fashioning some theoretical argument from his data, or in jefferson’s case positing the data as the potential raw materials from which theory could be derived. furthermore, each of jefferson, mackenzie and howard were especially active during the cold decade and left behind uniquely colorful documentary records. case study: thomas jefferson and his “weather book” early in his presidency, on november 1, 1802, thomas jefferson began recording daily weather conditions in a small diary that has become known by archivists as his “weather book.” he typically took readings from a household thermometer at sunrise and again at three o’clock in the afternoon, to which he added notations of the direction of the wind and often a short statement of the weather. frequently he also recorded agricultural and horticultural events such as the blossoming of flowers or, quite particularly, the days of the year on which particular commodities became available. he wrote down in his weather book nearly every weather event that had a significant effect on his crops or garden yields, such as frosts, unusual rains or drought conditions. he continued to record data in the weather book for the next 14 years. 10 there were no pensions for public officeholders at this time, and after 1809 jefferson’s sole means of income—hampered by insurmountable debt incurred during and even before his period of public service—came from the produce of his farms. 11 taken as a whole, his weather book crystallized into a record not only of the environmental history of his farms, but also an economic one. jefferson had the misfortune to return home just as the decade-long upheavals in the world’s climate began. his weather book soon grew to contain notes on abnormally cool summers, the new madrid earthquakes in 1811-12, a calamitous drought in 1813 that jefferson judged the worst since 1755, and the unseasonable cold, killing frosts and cold snaps of the year without summer. that year, 1816, was significant for jefferson. he made the final daily entry in his weather book on december 31, 1816. following this final entry he attempted to analyze and synthesize the data he had collected. he drew a table of the average number of days in each 9 see alexander hall’s paper in this issue. 10 thomas jefferson, “weather, 1802-1816,” massachusetts historical society, passim. 11 andrew burstein and nancy isenberg, madison and jefferson (new york: random house, 2010), 430; barbara mcewan, thomas jefferson: farmer (jefferson, nc: mcfarland & company, 1991), 42. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 17 17 month in which particular winds prevailed, spanning 3,905 observations between january 1810 and december 1816. another table, derived from his fastidious attention to his rain gauge, reported mathematical averages of the frequency of rainy days and the tallies of cloudy versus “what astronomers call observing days in the week” for the purposes of watching celestial events. 12 jefferson’s weather watching activities were aimed at more than simply the generation of knowledge for knowledge’s sake. they served a specific purpose. in his summation he wrote: it is a common opinion that the climates of the several states of our union, have undergone sensible change since the dates of their first settlements; that the degrees of both cold and heat are moderated. the same opinion prevails as to europe; and facts gleaned from history give reason to believe that since the time of augustus caesar, the climate of italy for example has changed regularly, at the rate of 1° of fahrenheit’s thermometer for every century. may we not hope that the methods invented in later times for measuring with accuracy the degrees of heat and cold, and the observations which have been, and will be made and preserved will at length ascertain this curious fact in physical history? 13 jefferson had written previously about climate change. in the 1780s he and his friend james madison—who together made the first simultaneous, coordinated meteorological observations in american history, in 1778 14 — carried on a long intellectual rivalry with the comte de buffon, who argued that new world climates resulted in stunted animal and human development as compared to those of europe. jefferson was eager to refute these theories. 15 arming himself with data to refute buffon led in part to jefferson’s remarks in notes on the state of virginia, written in 1785, in which he declared that “[a] change in our climate…is taking place very sensibly” 16 — words he echoed almost verbatim 31 years later. he admitted however that no “regular evidence” other than the possibly faulty recollections and general observations of individuals could prove the theory of climate change. 17 his views on climate change were influenced by north carolina physician and fellow revolutionary hugh williamson with whom jefferson corresponded for 30 years and whose work he recommended to the public after williamson’s death in 1819. 18 in his 1811 book observations on the climate in different parts of america, williamson set out a theory of anthropogenic climate change, arguing that deforestation and agricultural development increased heat reflected by the earth and resulted in higher temperatures and more moderate winters. 19 jefferson and williamson’s theories on climate change—the moderation of seasons, 12 jefferson, “weather,” 34-80, 81-85. 13 ibid., 83. 14 james rodger fleming, meteorology in america, 1800-1870 (baltimore: johns hopkins university press, 1990), 9. 15 daniel l. druckenbrod, michael e. mann, david w. stahle, malcolm k. cleaveland, matthew d. therrell and herman h. shugart,“late-eighteenth-century precipitation reconstructions from james madison’s montpelier plantation,” bulletin of the american meteorological society 84 (2003): 57-71. 16 thomas jefferson, notes on the state of virginia (gloucester, ma: peter smith, 1976), 79. 17 thomas jefferson to nathaniel chapman, december 11, 1809, in the papers of thomas jefferson: retirement series, ed. j. jefferson looney (princeton: princeton university press, 2005) ii:70-71. 18 george sheldon, hugh williamson: physician, patriot and founding father (amherst, ny: humanity books, 2010), 252-53. 19 hugh williamson, observations on the climate in different parts of america, compared with the climate in corresponding parts of the other continent (new york: t. & j. swords, 1811), 9-10. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 18 18 decrease in snow cover and anthropogenic causation—were, if not fully congruent, closely aligned. jefferson’s weather book was a living testament to his ability to view the physical and environmental world on a dualistic level. the first level was the very local world of his crops, monticello’s brown soil and green gardens, the fields of wheat and corn, poplar forest’s tobacco acreage, and the day-to-day concerns of plowing, hoeing, reaping and harvesting. on this level, minute concerns such as the temperature of the soil and the exact measurements of rainfall were of paramount importance, because they affected the economic well-being of both the slave and free residents of jefferson’s domains. yet hovering above this world in a sort of conceptual twilight was nothing less than the broad scope of earth, its atmosphere and natural rhythms, as a planetary and even cosmic system with all its constituent parts intimately connected. jefferson remarked upon comets, earthquakes, lightning, animal die-offs, snows in canada, and the ambient temperature of italy nearly two thousand years before. 20 the casual coexistence of minute environmental detail with broad strokes of planetary climatology demonstrate both the limits and the limitlessness of the physical worlds jefferson saw himself as inhabiting. jefferson made the ultimate summation of his data in december 1816, following his extensive observations on the year without summer phenomena—the most visible manifestation of cold decade anomalies. he ceased keeping systematic weather observations after this date. the decade of the 1810s was, for jefferson, largely a period of completing various long-term projects in his life, such as an extensive program of planting and landscaping at poplar forest, begun in 1782, which was concluded in 1819. he may have been clearing the decks to concentrate on the project he regarded as the last service of his life, the establishment of the university of virginia. 21 he might have brought his 30-year study of climate to a close at this time because of this desire to settle accounts, or it is possible that the impetus to summarize his data in a form that might lend itself to proving climate change may have been a response to the weather events of 1816. the documentary evidence cannot clearly tell us one way or another. nevertheless, regardless of jefferson’s reason for ceasing his weather watching in 1816, his notes are an interesting illumination of how some cold decade weather watchers viewed the planetary environment. case study: george mackenzie and the “system” of the winds on november 1, 1802—coincidentally the same day jefferson began keeping his weather book in virginia—an eccentric scotsman named george mackenzie, a tacksman of caithness in the far north of scotland, began keeping his own chronicle of weather data. a local militia officer who served in various places in the british isles during the napoleonic wars, mackenzie kept his weather observations for many years, noting particularly wind speed and direction, the length of rains and daily temperature. 22 his observations formed a rich record of weather in britain during the early years of the 19th century and especially the cold decade. from this source text mackenzie began writing a hefty tome about british weather patterns, evidently consisting mostly of his opinions and observations drawn from his weather data. then in the final stages of completion of his manuscript came the strange wet summer of 1816, and with it the discovery 20 jefferson, “weather,” 34-80. 21 mcewan, thomas jefferson: farmer, 187-90. 22 robert fittis, illustrations of the history & antiquities of perthshire (perth, uk: constitutional office, 1874) [no page number]. a “tacksman” is a leaseholder of an estate, treated as sort of a minor nobleman. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 19 19 that george mackenzie believed defined his life and would secure his place in the history of science. 23 the events of the cold decade were unmistakably a motivator of mackenzie’s theoretical endeavors. “summer 1816 came,” mackenzie wrote, “and…its character was such, that [i] could not resist making an attempt to find out the cause of such severe changes.” to this end he revised his manuscript extensively. discarding external factors such as sunspots or global cooling—subjects much-discussed in the press and public arena in 1816 as potential causes of the anomalies 24 — mackenzie believed the explanation lay in the data he’d already observed. in july 1817 he discovered what he thought was the answer: the directions of the winds and the total numbers of days on which they blew from each quarter formed a 54-year cycle, same the world over. the result, published in edinburgh in 1818, was a book entitled the system of the weather of the british islands; discovered in 1816 and 1817 from a journal commencing november 1802. according to mackenzie the “system” was an infallible method of predicting long-term weather trends—in essence, the distillation of weather into climate. 25 mackenzie classified each day in the weather year, which lasted from november 1 to october 31, according to the prevailing directions of its winds. if a wind blew east consistently during a day, he classified that as a day of east wind; if west, it was a day of west wind; if he recorded both east and west winds over the course of a day, or if at any time the winds shifted to northerly or southerly winds, he classified it as a “variable day.” his years of data told him that each year had an average of 216 days of westerly winds and 135 days of easterly winds. the ratio of these averages was mackenzie’s ultimate baseline, and each individual year was measured against it, resulting in its declaration as an “excess” or “deficiency.” mackenzie also counted days of rain. from these classifications evolved the curious vocabulary mackenzie used throughout his work, in which he repeats phrases like “wet cold summer,” “mild wet winter” and “extreme dry” (used as a noun, as in, winter 1803-04 is an extreme dry). he also spoke of “storms,” which usually meant wind excesses that lasted several years in succession; winter 1812, for instance, was the “second winter of a storm.” 26 to mackenzie the most important feature of the system was the repeatability of the 54year cycle. deficiencies and excesses, storms, wets and drys followed in an immutable pattern. “[t]he weather of one 54 years, is the same as the weather of the next 54 years, or any other 54 years corresponding in the order of the series.” 27 yet this did not mean that every individual point-source weather observation would correspond exactly to the same point-source observation taken exactly 54 years later. the excess and deficiencies of the winds would naturally vary during an individual year, breaking any correlation between specific times and places. put another way, mackenzie argued that the average weather patterns for the year 1816 as a whole, measured in terms of excess/deficiency, dry/wet and mild/severe, would correspond to those for 1870 as a whole. “it must therefore become desirable,” mackenzie wrote, “to ascertain how far 23 george mackenzie, the system of the weather of the british islands; discovered in 1816 and 1817 from a journal commencing november 1802 (edinburgh: william aitken, 1818), b, x-xxv, 3-6. 24 see, e.g., “on the cold of the late summer,” new york weekly museum, december 14, 1816. 25 mackenzie, system, 3-5. 26 ibid., b-xxv, 10, 69, 71-72. 27 ibid., 5. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 20 20 one revolution of the system of the weather corresponds with another in every particular.” he expected that future weather observations would work out this wrinkle. 28 george mackenzie’s significance to the climate history of the cold decade lay not in the substantive accuracy of his system but in his efforts to develop it and his thinking about climate and the environment in general. mackenzie’s system proved inaccurate and unconvincing to scientific readers and the public at large, but he did make the conceptual leap from point-source weather to regional and global climate. 29 mackenzie was essentially reversing the thinking of early modern and enlightenment-era weather watchers. from roughly 1660 to the middle of the 18th century earlier weather watchers like robert boyle and john locke attempted to hold up weather and meteorological observation as a mirror in which one could supposedly view the broader harmony of natural laws. essentially they wanted to use weather observations to validate preexisting philosophical conceptions of how the universe worked, and in this effort they were largely frustrated. 30 mackenzie, however, entered the cold decade without any apparent allegiance to a philosophical or scientific theory of how weather and climate worked. the desire to understand the anomalies of the cold decade motivated him to fashion such a theory that would validate his years-long efforts in weather watching. his theory would vindicate him, not the other way around. case study: luke howard and the “barograph clock” among the weather-watchers of the cold decade, the one who came the closest to a professional was the learned briton called luke howard. a chemist by trade, he owned a large firm that manufactured pharmaceutical chemicals for industry and retail druggists. successful as he was at this profession, his true passion, like george mackenzie, was the observation and investigation of weather phenomena. howard was most famous for the paper he presented in 1802 to the askesian society—which he helped found—setting forth a classification of cloud types and introducing into meteorology the classic nomenclature of nimbus, stratus, and cumulus. 31 he also kept meticulous weather observations which became more sophisticated when in 1814 he acquired a device he called a “barograph clock” from the estate of its creator, scottish watchmaker alexander cumming. the barograph clock howard acquired was a copy of the device cumming built for king george iii in 1765. it was a barometer equipped with a pen that recorded atmospheric pressure readings over time on colossal ring-shaped graphs, each one taking a year to complete; they were as much works of art as scientific documents. the barograph data formed the backbone of howard’s multi-volume study the climate of london, published in 1818. 32 28 “an account of the system of the weather of the british islands, discovered by lieut. george mackenzie,” blackwood’s edinburgh magazine iv (october 1818-march 1819): 86. 29 “art. vii, the system of the weather of the british islands,” the british critic, new series xvii (jan.-june 1822): 510. 30 daston, “unruly weather,” 233-35. 31 cox, storm watchers, 13-15. 32 luke howard, barometrographia: twenty years’ variation in the barometer in the climate of britain, exhibited in autographic curves, with the attendant winds and weather, and copious notes illustrative of the subject (london: richard & john e. taylor, 1847), first page, penultimate and last page; luke howard, the climate of london, deduced from meteorological observations made in the metropolis and at various places around it (london: harvery & darton, 1833), passim. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 21 21 howard, like mackenzie, began searching for patterns in the weather data he collected. the “cycle” he explicated in the climate of london was much less ritualistic and mathematical than mackenzie’s, but howard’s result was at least functionally similar. he suggested that climate patterns fell into a 17-year cycle, with average temperature of seasons being one important correlating factor. the key to recognizing the cycle was the year 1816, whose extremes provided howard the most prominent point of reference. the year 1816, which was the coldest of the cycle, appears to have had its parallels in 1799 and 1782; and now there is every reason to conclude, from present appearances, that the warm temperatures of 1806 will re-appear in 1823; which will probably be the warmest, and 1833 the coldest, upon the whole year, of a cycle of seventeen years, beginning with 1817. 33 ostensibly howard did not endeavor to explain the climate of any place other than london. however, the cosmic and planetary dimensions of this thinking are still evident in the climate of london, albeit less explicit than those of mackenzie or jefferson. howard collected a large array of environmental anecdotes in the climate of london, most from newspaper media: reports of earthquakes, volcanoes, lightning, atmospheric oddities and celestial events from all over the world, far-removed from london. for example, he remarked upon a supposed connection between meteors and an earthquake in south africa, the early onset of winter 1810 in siberia, and seismic/volcanic activity in venezuela in 1812. 34 he did not explain how these events affected the climate of london, but the fact that he included them demonstrates his belief in the interconnection of global weather and climate phenomena—a belief that perhaps he simply assumed his readers would share. essentially, howard transitioned from the local layer to the cosmic/planetary one without discussing anything in between. that he felt he did not need to make the connection explicit is telling, as it reflects an instinctive appreciation of the relevance of local conditions to broader processes. howard also asserted that the moon had considerable influence on terrestrial climate, affecting rain patterns, barometric fluctuations and temperatures. the year 1816 was again important in leading howard to this conclusion. breaking down mean temperature readings according to phases of the moon, he declared that the orbit of the moon during 1816 “appears to have had a wet and dry side, as regards the moon’s influence on…our climate.” 35 nevertheless, he refrained from placing any one factor at the determinative center of his cycle, as mackenzie had done with his tallies of wind direction. consequently, howard’s cycle is much vaguer than mackenzie’s system, and he equivocated about it, frankly admitting that he could be wrong and that only future observations could determine if it had any validity. 36 after the cold decade ended howard continued to refine his theories of lunar influence on climate. in 1841 he submitted a paper to the royal society of london, setting forth a new iteration of the cycle which he had by then revised to 18 years, and in which he now began to include solar radiation. 37 this long preoccupation, as well as that of explaining the climate of 33 ibid., i:43-44.. 34 ibid., ii:96, 125, 168-69. 35 ibid., ii:155, 183. 36 cox, storm watchers, 15. 37 luke howard, “on the proportions of the prevailing winds, the mean temperature, and the depth of rain in the climate of london, computed through a cycle of eighteen years, or periods of the moon’s declination,” history of meteorology 7 (2015) 22 22 london, was rooted in the events of the cold decade. as with mackenzie and jefferson, this decade, and especially the year 1816, were important motivators and clarifiers of howard’s lines of thinking. for all three men, the cold decade was a lens that brought their existing environmental consciousness into especially clear relief. weather watchers and the state of meteorological science in an era before institutionalized research, scientific specialization and formal degree programs, who “counted” as a meteorologist in the 1810s was largely a matter of opinion. some scientific writers expressed the opinion that, well-meaning as they may have been, weather watchers were not helping advance the science of meteorology. in a lengthy 1818 article surveying the condition of the discipline, the edinburgh review seemed to be rebuking weather watchers— especially those like mackenzie who spun elaborate webs of unsupported theory—when its anonymous author lamented: every person possessing a slight tincture of physical science, conceives himself qualified to speculate concerning the phenomena of weather, in which he feels a deep interest; and hence, a very flimsy and spurious kind of philosophy, however trifling and despicable it may appear in the eyes of the few who are accustomed to think more profoundly, has gained currency among certain classes of men, and engendered no small share of conceit. meteorology is a complex science, depending on so many subordinate principles, that require the union of accurate theory, with a range of nice and various observations, as to have advanced very slowly towards perfection. 38 this sentiment was shared across the atlantic as well. in reviewing another “system”-like book on atmospheric phenomenon by another weather watcher—british physician and future phrenologist thomas ignatius maria forster—a new england journal identified “the rise of water into the atmosphere and its return to earth” as a prime example of a scientific process crucial to the understanding of meteorology that was as yet unexplained. the reviewer remarked “this department of science is encumbered with many loose opinions, and some fanciful and inadequate hypothesis, which retard rather than assist the inquirer in his investigations.” in other words, weather watchers were holding back the discipline, or even skewing it from its proper course. 39 this arguably cogent criticism notwithstanding, the weather watchers nonetheless filled a void. the public’s interest in and demand for meteorological and climatological information and analysis grew over the course of the cold decade, especially in its second half. before 1810 it was relatively rare for major newspapers in the united states or great britain to devote significant space to weather-related matters such as daily or weekly temperature or precipitation records; by 1820 many newspapers were regularly doing so. 40 the philadelphia register and abstracts of the papers printed in the philosophical transactions of the royal society of london iv:300 (april 29, 1841). 38 “polar ice, and a north-west passage,” edinburgh review xxx, no. lix (1818), 5. 39 “review: researches about atmospheric phenomena by thomas forster,” new-england journal of medicine and surgery, and collateral branches of science 6 (jan. 1817), 1-11. 40 see, e.g., “miscellaneous: the weather,” the monthly visitant; or, something old, august 1, 1816, 1-2; “meteorological: from the philadelphia union,” niles’ weekly register, august 15, 1818, 14; “meteorology: the history of meteorology 7 (2015) 23 23 national recorder, for example, in march 1819 gave several column inches to josiah meigs— former president of the university of georgia and then currently commissioner of the u.s. general land office—to present a panoply of meteorological data collected by u.s. land office clerks in detroit and savannah. the data was exactly the kind in which the weather watchers reveled: temperature and barometric statistics, winds and precipitation. “if such observations are continued,” meigs wrote, “as i hope they will be, for a few years, much interesting knowledge of the meteorology of our country will be effected.” 41 similarly, niles’ weekly register of baltimore devoted seven pages the same year (1819) to tables of weather data compiled at chillicothe, ohio by weather watcher samuel williams over the previous two years. williams noted temperature, wind direction, cloud cover and cloud type day-by-day from july 1, 1817 to june 30 of the following year, and in explanatory statements and marginalia commented on storms, vapors in the atmosphere, moon haloes, the ripening of peas and strawberries, and provided a boastful description of his thermometer which was imported from london. 42 across the atlantic, another example of the demand for and saturation of meteorological news content comes from the naval chronicle, essentially the trade journal of the british royal navy. the “meteorological register,” a systematized table of barometric pressure, temperature data and descriptions of weather events in covent garden, london, made its first appearance in this publication during the summer of 1815. by the end of the naval chronicle’s publication run in 1818, the meteorological register had become much more detailed and elaborate, and notably adopted and enthusiastically endorsed the cloud classification system of weather watcher luke howard. the weather content of the naval chronicle had become, by the end of the cold decade, a cornucopia of the same expansive obsessions as those that consumed the weather watchers: large tables of weather readings, historical comparisons, narratives on the character of seasons and the coming of crops, ruminations on polar ice, sunspots, earthquakes and “cavities” in the atmosphere, sprinkled with the dropped names of presumed experts and casual citations to philosophical journals. 43 the increasing presence of meteorological data in both american and british media is evidence that the study of weather was creeping out of the parlors and gardens of private citizens and into the public mind. this demand for meteorological data fits into the context of the evolution of public thought on weather, meteorology and climate throughout the 19th century. at what might be termed the ground level, popular almanacs, which contained astronomical and astrological information, agricultural and practical environmental tips and often made rudimentary attempts weather,” national register, august 7, 1819, 8. for weather reporting early in the decade, see, e.g., “state of the thermometer,” american register, vol. 7, 1810, american periodicals 135. 41 josiah meigs, “meteorological: detroit, savannah,” philadelphia register and national recorder, march 27, 1819, 1. meigs’s writings were part of a larger project—ultimately unsuccessful in his lifetime—to convince the u.s. government to establish a protocol for systematic and uniform weather observation and data collection. fleming, meteorology in america, 17-19. 42 samuel williams, “meteorological register,” niles’ weekly register, february 20, 1819, 15. 43 “meteorological register,” the naval chronicle for 1815; containing a general and biographical history of the royal navy of the united kingdom xxxiii (jan.-june 1815) 56; “meteorological register,” the naval chronicle for 1816; containing a general and biographical history of the royal navy of the united kingdom xxxvi (jul.dec. 1816) 175, 349, 438, 516; the naval chronicle for 1817; containing a general and biographical history of the royal navy of the united kingdom xxxvii (jan.-jun. 1817) 373, 80-84, 145-52, 174; “meteorological register,” the naval chronicle for 1818; containing a general and biographical history of the royal navy of the united kingdom xl (july-dec. 1818) 163. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 24 24 at weather forecasting, were a staple literature of the period, especially in the united states. 44 at a higher level, that of scientific thinkers and writers who tended to think of themselves as gatekeepers of the discipline of meteorology, demand was high for consistency and standards in empirical weather observations, and this demand grew over the 1820s and 1830s. 45 by the victorian era the development of the telegraph (beginning in the late 1830s) and widespread data sharing via transatlantic cables (1850s) sparked the establishment of predictive weather forecasting, which katharine anderson argues is the defining feature of truly modern meteorological science. 46 the growth of public demand for meteorological information during the cold decade helped prepare the landscape for these developments. conclusion: the weather watchers and environmental consciousness the weather watchers conceived of the environment as existing in two distinct but interrelated layers: a local layer of crops, occupational activities and point-source weather conditions, and a broader planetary or cosmic layer encompassing broader trends of climate as well as global and celestial occurrences. my characterization of the weather watchers’ environmental consciousness as dual-layered has significant commonalities with the observations of worldview within climate and weather history in general—for instance, lorraine daston’s examination of early modern naturalists and their attempts to illuminate broadly-applicable natural laws (essentially, the cosmic layer) through observation of point-source weather phenomena (the local layer). 47 clearly the dual-layered view was not exclusive to weather watchers nor to the cold decade. although the experience of weather watchers during a single decade cannot be divorced from the continuities they shared with pre-1810 and post-1820 experience, the cold decade with its clearly visible weather anomalies and its positioning within the context of the history of meteorology provides an interesting lens through which to view this dual-layered environmental consciousness. the weather watchers were undoubtedly a product of their age. thomas jefferson, george mackenzie and luke howard were neither the discoverers of new processes and phenomena nor the architects of new forms of scientific thinking. but despite their limitations, shortcomings and conceits, they filled a void in public discourse that was seeking answers to the riddles posed by the anomalies of the cold decade. they attempted to explain what many people believed was inexplicable, and in doing so demonstrated, if nothing else, an admirable audacity. acknowledgements i wish to thank the following persons and institutions for their support: matthew j. dennis of the university of oregon, the massachusetts historical society, the huntington library, the american antiquarian society, james rodger fleming, and cody climer. 44 see, e.g., dedham pocket almanac and new england calendar for the year of our lord 1812 (dedham, nh: h. mann, 1811). 45 janković, reading the skies, 161-67. 46 katharine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: university of chicago press, 2005), 1-7. 47 daston, “unruly weather,” 235-36. 03 fenby seven lean years history of meteorology 7 (2015) 25 ‘seven lean years, seven fat years’: climate theory in australia, 1820–1830 claire fenby claire.fenby@alumni.unimelb.edu.au independent scholar in the 1820s and 1830s, british settlers in australia relied on folk theories, memories and patchy weather data to understand the past and future climate of their new settlements.1 a lengthy drought in new south wales from 1826–1829 buoyed belief in a folk climate theory called ‘the septennial theory’ – the idea that south-eastern australian climate was dominated by drought periods of seven years in length, followed by a seven-year period of good rainfall – and challenged the way british settlers had understood australian weather and climate during the preceding 40 years of colonization. in the late 1700s, while australia’s suitability as a penal colony was assessed, it was presumed that the temperate climate could support the ample production of both traditional english goods and produce, as well as exotic tropical crops in only a few short decades.2 south-eastern australia’s expansive, temperate regions, lacking britain’s wintery extremes, were brimming with agricultural and pastoral possibility. however, 30 years later, british settlers had faced lengthy, desiccating droughts interspersed with periods of high rainfall. in those few short decades, a wider understanding of australia’s highly variable climate had started to emerge. the ‘septennial theory’ pre-dated the widespread establishment of meteorological weather stations that occurred in later decades. in the absence of long-term meteorological observations, it was preconceptions and theories that coloured the way colonisers viewed weather and climate in australia and the way settlers reacted to its extremes. with a focus on the 1820s and early 1830s, this paper shows the way weather and climate was conceptualised in australia in the absence of a strong meteorological tradition. in the emerging field of australian meteorological history, a strong focus is directed to the data collection activities, analysis and theories that developed during the latter half of the 19th century. this is a sensible starting point, as it was only in 1838 that 1 david day, the weather watchers, (carlton: melbourne university press, 2007), 8–10. 2 claire fenby, don garden and joëlle gergis, ‘“the usual weather in new south wales is uncommonly bright and clear…equal to the finest summer day in england”: flood and drought in new south wales, 1788–1815,’ climate, science, and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, james beattie, emily o’gorman, and matthew henry (eds.), (new york: palgrave macmillan, 2014), 43. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 26 the colonial office ordered the establishment of a small meteorological network in australia. in november 1838, the british government department ordered the governor of new south wales, sir george gipps, to establish and maintain meteorological records at stations across south-eastern australia (sydney, melbourne and port macquarie) in order to better understand the weather and climate, promote scientific enquiry and boost immigration.3 the establishment of a larger network of meteorological observatories accelerated from the late 1850s.4 julia miller’s recent paper, ‘what’s happening to the weather? australian climate, h.c. russell and the theory of a nineteen-year cycle,’ examines 19th century scientist h. c. russell’s theories of ‘good and bad seasons’ and situates russell’s work on climate periodicity within ‘a wider interest in climate and weather prediction in the late 19th and early twentieth centuries.5 this paper shows that, while public debate about climate variability was more vigorous in late 19th century australia, an interest in wet and dry periodicity emerged much earlier in australia’s meteorological history, formed in response to forty years’ experience of climate variability. a recent compendium of australian and new zealand climate history, climate, science, and colonization, highlights new historical understanding for this region and in this field. historian kirsty douglas argues that later in the 19th century, ‘schemes emerged for correcting climate ‘deficiencies’…[which] included competing agricultural and forestry maxims like ‘rain follows the plow’ and ‘trees bring rain’.’6 this is supported by stephen legg’s research published in the same volume, which outlined a longitudinal survey of australian newspapers between 1827 and 1949 on whether forests influenced australian climate. figure 6.2 in legg’s chapter shows no relevant newspaper articles on this debate were identified from 1827 to the mid-1850s, but that a ‘rapid rise in total press coverage on the debate occurred from the early 1860s, before a resurgence in the early 1880s and a decline to the early 1890s.’ 7 the debate that circulated these popular maxims ‘remained open because of the continued failure of scientists like [h.c.] russell to predict the weather.’8 the septennial theory, outlined in this paper, was an embryonic theory that sought to highlight australian climate ‘deficiencies’, pre-dating later discussions about the periodicity of drought and the climate-correcting measures that could be employed in the face of it. this paper shines a light on a climatic theory that was prevalent in australia in the 1820s and 1830s. it is one of the earliest examples of a ‘periodicity’ theory, which became more widely debated in australia in the latter half of the 19th century, and it predated the lively wider debate about exerting climate control through landscape changes, 3 david day, the weather watchers, 4. 4 ibid; kirsty douglas, ‘under such sunny skies’: understanding weather in colonial australia, 1860– 1901,’ metarch papers no. 17, may 2007, bureau of meteorology, 20. 5 julia miller, ‘what’s happening to the weather? australian climate, h.c. russell and the theory of a nineteen-year cycle,’ historical records of australian science 2014: 25, 20. 6 kirsty douglas, 'for the sake of a little grass': a comparative history of settler science and environmental limits in south australia and the great plains,’ climate, science, and colonization, james beattie, emily o’gorman, and matthew henry (eds.), 102. 7 stephen legg, ‘debating the climatological role of forests in australia, 1827–1949: a survey of the popular press,’ climate, science, and colonization, james beattie, emily o’gorman, and matthew henry (eds.), 121–122. 8 ibid, 132. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 27 which was also prevalent in the latter half of the 19th century. it informed early debate around climate ‘boosterism’ which became more prevalent in the mid-1830s with the establishment of the colony of south australia. the septennial theory pre-dated the systematic creation of meteorological observatories across south-eastern australia from 1838 onwards. british colonisers arrived in foreign lands ‘oblivious in the beginning to environmental extremes and ways to deal with them.’9 colonisation, as gergis et. al. identify in ‘the influence of climate on the first european settlement in australia’, ‘is largely about the processes of coming to terms with…environmental limitations, and finding ways of overcoming them.’10 this paper highlights the progression of colonial meteorological understanding, and uncovers a meteorological folk theory – an early attempt to understand and come to terms with the long-term variability in south-eastern australia’s climate and to predict with greater accuracy periods of drought and good rainfall. 40 years of variability since their arrival in 1788, europeans in south-eastern australia had experienced oscillating periods of significant droughts interspersed with wet periods marked by major floods. serious droughts were experienced in coastal new south wales from 1790–1792, in 1798–1799, from 1802–1803, 1809–1815, 1824 and 1826–1829, with settlers experiencing widespread crop failures, livestock death and water shortages. destructive floods marked the early years of settlement at the hawkesbury river, 80km northwest of sydney, in 1805, 1806, 1809 and 1816.11 these climatic extremes, which threatened the viability of the new colony in australia, also challenged the way settlers conceptualised climate. by the end of 1827, reports of grain harvest failures had increased, heralding the beginning of a long succession of drought-affected crops in the australian colony of new south wales. throughout 1827, settler christiana brooks wrote of her delight whenever it rained at her denham court property, southwest of sydney. when march was ushered in with nearly a week of rain, ‘the most striking improvement was visible – the grass [was] looking green, the trees refreshed, and the whole face of the country beautiful.’12 brief periods of rainfall, however, were inadequate for agricultural purposes on the brooks’ farm, which meant that the december harvest was quickly completed in a week, and was described as ‘a harvest of straw rather than grain.’13 their crop return was reduced to four bushels an acre.14 good rainfall was welcomed in sydney in april 1828 9 dennis b. blanton, ‘the weather is fine, wish you were here, because i’m the last one alive: “learning” the environment in the english new world colonies,’ colonization of unfamiliar landscapes: the archaeology of adaptation, eds. marcy rockman and james steele (routledge: london, 2003), 195. 10 joëlle gergis, don garden and claire fenby, ‘the influence of climate on the first european settlement of australia: a comparison of weather journals, documentary data and palaeoclimate records, 1788– 1793,’ environmental history 2010 (15:3), 503. 11 claire fenby and joëlle gergis, ‘rainfall variations in south-eastern australia part 1: consolidating evidence from pre-instrumental documentary sources, 1788-1860,’ international journal of climatology 11/2013; 33(14):2956-2972. doi:10.1002/joc.3640 12 christiana brooks, diary, national library of australia, ms 1559/24 folder 3, 18 march 1827. 13 christiana brooks, 15 december 1827. 14 ibid. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 28 but drought persisted elsewhere, particularly in the western districts where the monitor reported that ‘drought extends all the way from bathurst to wellington valley, and eighty miles beyond.’15 the mid-1828 harvest ‘produced scarcely grain enough for the internal wants of the people.’16 the hopes of the agricultural and horticultural society had been buoyed by rainfall towards the end of 1828, which broke up the soil enough to allow ploughing and cultivation to go ahead. this meant that ‘considerable crops were got into the ground,’ but unfortunately, in spring 1829 ‘the hoped-for rain vanished, the earth dried up so that the wheat, barley, rye, and oat crops sown were deprived of moisture, sufficient to cause more than one-half to vegetate.’17 by october 1829 ‘every mind was filled with the dreaded alarm of famine’ as empty barns and granaries were common features in new south wales.18 this lengthy drought, bringing the colony of new south wales close to famine, provoked discussion about climate ‘periodicity’ within the colony. conceptualising australian climate in the early decades of the 19th century, australia’s climate was often understood through favourable comparison to european countries like italy or spain, or through some aspects of british climate. it was a way for new arrivals to conceptualise the climate of a new continent. ann bourke, the daughter of the newly appointed new south wales governor richard bourke, had arrived in sydney with her family in 1831. shortly after their arrival they experienced ‘the only disagreeable part of this climate which is the hot northwest wind…the next day was like a beautiful summer’s day in england. they say that these winds occur perhaps twice in the summer.’ 19 public servant edward deas thomson, in an 1829 letter to his father written not long after his arrival in new south wales, wrote that ‘the climate is certainly very fine’ and was adamant that there was ‘nothing oppressive in the heat’ experienced in australia.20 to him the ‘nights are always cool and the air so pure and elastic that one’s dreams of the italian climate are more than realized in a fine moonlight evening such as we are now enjoying.’21 earlier in that same letter he had acknowledged australia’s infamous droughts, stating that they were ‘the greatest drawback to its advancement’.22 it was lamented in new south wales that the colony would ‘produce a great deal more food, clothing and commodities, than it does, if its seasons were as regular as those in england.’23 by the 1820s and 1830s, a more complex picture of australian climate had begun to emerge. while comparisons between the australian climate and favourable aspects of mediterranean and western european 15 ‘sydney markets,’ the monitor, 19 april 1828, 1. 16 ‘shipping intelligence,’ the sydney gazette, 11 july 1828, 2. 17 ‘address by the president of the agricultural and horticultural society,’ the sydney gazette, 1 october 1829, 2. 18 ibid. 19 diary of ann bourke, 19 august – 27 december 1831, 8 december 1831, bourke family papers [m1863], 1809-1855, in australian joint copying project 1809–1855, m 1863, 54, state library of new south wales (hereafter, slnsw). 20 edward deas thomson, letter 17 march 1829, in thomson family correspondence, 1827-1837, ml mss 7270, slnsw. 21 ibid. 22 ibid. 23 ‘the monitor,’ the sydney monitor, 13 december 1828, 4. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 29 climate were made, an understanding of marked climate variations and severe drought was emerging. despite the occurrence of scorching drought and damaging wet periods, the british opinion of australia’s climate and environment remained positive during the decades that followed. letitia wyndham, who lived in britain and was the mother of new south wales farmer george wyndham, addressed the mythological status that the colony of new south wales had attained in britain stating: ‘it would be difficult to persuade anyone in this country that there was a foot of bad land in new south wales, they suppose it to be a fine rich alluvial soil producing almost without labour all that is necessary to the comfort and enjoyment of man.’24 this letter was written in 1829, towards the end of the 1826–1829 drought in new south wales. while letitia wyndham did not directly mention climate, her statement is indicative of the way australia’s environment was portrayed in the united kingdom, particularly to potential immigrants. the precariousness of agriculture and the capriciousness of australian climate could be swiftly forgotten when good rain set in after drought. surveyor felton mathew, working in the hunter river region near george wyndham’s dalwood farm in january 1830, remarked: the scenery is everywhere of the same magnificent description immense ranges and rocky hills 4 or 500 feet in height, enclosing level vallies, partly swamp, but still of the richest and most luxuriant alluvial soil and wanting only english capital and english industry to render them productive in the highest degree.25 with climatic difficulties out of sight, colonisation alone could transform the australian landscape, wild and unutilised, to a region that was productive and useful for the colonists. despite these bold statements, the idea that australia’s climate was not entirely suitable for british agricultural practices was reaching england. robert dawson, the former company agent for the australian agricultural company, also published an account of his experience in new south wales. in his 1830 publication he noted that ‘the failure of the last two harvests in succession, from drought and blights, with a similar prospect for the third…are well known to every one connected with the colony.’26 dawson alleged that few farmers were guaranteed agricultural success—those who settled along riverbanks and those who were granted only the best forest and lowlands could succeed.27 the long 1826–1829 drought and multiple crop failures had shaken some british confidence in australia’s ‘fine’ climate. simple comparisons to a british summer were no longer enough to understand what the climate or weather of australia was like and these comparisons could not be relied on in the future. british settlers were even starting to learn that similar rainfall in 24 letitia wyndham, dinton, october 28 1829, letters to george and margaret wyndham, 1827-1869, ml mss 190, cy 1069, slnsw. 25 felton mathew, 24 january 1830, surveying diary 1 jan. 1830–13 sept. 1832, diaries of felton and sarah mathew, 1829–1834, ms 15, national library of australia. 26 robert dawson, the present state of australia: a description of the country, its advantages and prospects, with reference to emigration: and a particular account of the manners, customs and condition of its aboriginal inhabitants 2nd ed. (london: smith, elder and co., 1831), 366. 27 ibid. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 30 northern hemispheric countries would not have the same effect on livestock and agriculture if the rate of evaporation in the southern hemisphere was much higher.28 the sydney gazette drew on its readers’ knowledge of british landscape and climate to drive home their theory, noting: ‘we understand, that in the year 1823 fell 35 inches of rain [in sydney]…about the medium of the west coast of scotland and ireland.’29 despite this similarity in rainfall with ireland, the gazette declared, ‘how inadequate this quantity of moisture is for the useful wants of nature’ in australia.30 the gazette hoped that their published ‘observations of these phenomena may determine some periodicity of season’ to help them deal better with periods of drought.31 observations like these acknowledged that comparisons between australian and british weather were flawed, and that a more nuanced understanding of australia’s weather and climate was needed to ensure pastoral and agricultural success. here we can also see that historical meteorological observations were being used to understand weather and climate in sydney, and that this data was compared with observed rainfall in ireland. weather records were being kept in sydney and other areas in new south wales during the 1820s and 1830s. however, these records do not contain data for all years, and often only recorded some variables. for example, only barometric pressure and rain days were recorded in sydney from 1826–1831.32 in the 1788–1830 period, researchers have identified at least 12 meteorological records kept in new south wales and tasmania – ten and two datasets, respectively. weather data was recorded by naval and military officers, astronomers, colonial secretaries, interested amateurs and unnamed record-makers. some meteorological records were kept daily, others monthly.33 despite the long-standing colonial interest in meteorology, numerical data does not appear to be the basis for the septennial climate theory that developed in australia in the 1820s. an emerging climate theory by the end of the 1820s, nearly 40 years of european settlement had allowed long-term residents of australia to notice and propose theories about climatic patterns. settlers were developing a more nuanced understanding of australian meteorology and climate variation, but it was their memories of weather and climate events, rather than quantitative data, that helped shape their theories. one of the most persistent and earliest climate theories in australia was the ‘septennial’ theory of climate variation. this theory proposed that settlers in australia could expect seven wet years, followed by a seven-year period of drought or below-average rainfall. this cycle (essentially a 14-year cycle, although it was never described as such) would then repeat itself. evidence of this theory as it pertained to australian climate appeared in newspaper print as early as 1822, in the sydney gazette, as part of a letter to the editor 28 ‘the seasons,’ the sydney gazette and new south wales advertiser, 10 march 1825, 2. 29 ibid. 30 ibid. 31 ibid. 32 linden ashcroft, joelle gergis and david john karoly, ‘a historical climate dataset for southeastern australia, 1788–1859,’ geosci. data j. (2014), doi: 10.1002/gdj3.19, 4. 33 ibid. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 31 from ‘a resident’. the author noted that ‘the oldest inhabitants of this colony have observed an alternate succession of septennial drought and moisture’ and believed that the latest ‘period of moisture’ was coming to an end. the ‘resident’ also remarked that ‘the years of moisture commenced with the flood [in the hawkesbury river] of 1805, and continued to 1811.’34 in private letters written in 1824, farm overseer michael hindmarsh explained: i have been informed by people that have been in the colony for many years that the droughts and wet seasons prevail for 5 or 7 years in succession and i am inclined to believe it as i have experienced two years of very dry weather in the dry seasons.35 this material indicates that the theory was possibly widespread and popular in new south wales’ society, appearing in newsprint, published works and private letters over a number of years. a flurry of reports about the ‘septennial’ phenomenon surfaced in 1828 and 1829, inspired by the long and difficult drought in new south wales, which lasted from 1826– 1829. sydney newspaper the monitor was hoping that the current ‘droughty sextennial/septennial’ would be coming to an end, and that with ‘every new moon, it will, by a fall of rain sufficient to flood the hawkesbury [river] once more.’36 following the 1820s drought, the beginning of the next rainy seven-year period was highly anticipated and used as a cue for when serious farm work could resume. a report in the sydney monitor from the australian agricultural company at stroud, north of newcastle in new south wales, detailed the problems that the station experienced due to drought. by october 1828, an estimated 200 acres of unfenced wheat was killed by cattle, kangaroos and the effects of drought. subsequently, it was thought unwise to ‘plow and sow any more, until the rainy septennial sets in’37 and to not do so would be a ‘useless investment of capital and labour.’38 the monitor was a strong proponent of this septennial theory, often mentioning the seven-year cycle as one of the environmental disappointments that one could expect from australia. according to this newspaper, ‘besides a poor arid soil, [new south wales] is afflicted with extremes of drought and flood every seven years.’ 39 editorials published in the sydney monitor throughout 1829 dared to challenge the idea of new south wales as a bounteous food bowl for the world, writing that: ‘the crop of wheat in england varies from 20 to 40 bushels…the average crop of new south wales during the rainy septennial, may be estimated at 20 bushels – during the periodical four years of droughty weather, about ten…thus, england is a populous and great country. new south wales can never by farming, be either.’40 34 ‘to the editor of the sydney gazette,’ the sydney gazette and new south wales advertiser, 9 august 1822, 4. 35 michael hindmarsh, michael hindmarsh papers, 1824–61, letter, 21 september 1824, cy 1678, ml mss a 3164, slnsw. 36 ‘the monitor,’ the monitor, 19 april 1828, 4. 37 ‘the monitor,’ the sydney monitor, 4 october 1828, 5. 38 ibid. 39 ‘the monitor,’ the sydney monitor, 13 december 1828, 4. 40 ‘the sydney monitor,’ the sydney monitor, 25 july 1829, 2. italics in original. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 32 the initial optimism attached to australia’s perceived climate was beginning to wane in the face of prolonged drought that reduced the effect of wet seasons. the colonial times newspaper in hobart, tasmania, published its support of the sydney monitor editor edward smith hall and what they called his ‘honest candour’. the colonial times joined the sydney monitor in criticising the new south wales agricultural society for downplaying the true state of new south wales’ climate and weather, who they claimed had used ‘artifices and efforts to beguile the british public to settle in that colony.’ the colonial times remarked: ‘why conceal from the british public and the world at large, that new south wales is subject to periodical drought, and inundating rains alternately, like the cape of good hope, the river plate, and ancient syria and palestine? … why should a society of philosophic and scientific men, seem to juggle and be guilty of trickery or silent prevarication, equally tending to deceive many ignorant british adventurers, who may be desirous of becoming our fellow colonists.’41 where australia’s climate was previously compared to a british summer and to highly productive tropical zones, it was now compared with arid regions or regions with quite variable climates. climate reality had caught up with climate myth, and threatened to dissuade valuable immigrants from making a life in australia. the septennial, and other theories of rainfall variation, were formalised versions of the folk knowledge of climate and weather; experienced, remembered and passed on by the colony’s ‘oldest settlers.’ in october 1829, the sydney monitor heralded the end of drought noting: ‘we trust that as the droughty septennial expires at christmas, according to forty years experience which old settlers have had of the climate, this fall of rain is only the prelude to a thorough breaking-up of the drought; which, with more or less severity, the colony has now been visited with three years.’42 writing in 1830, after the drought broke towards the end of 1829, the monitor expected that the wet phase would be long-lasting, and even rescinded their negative advice to future colonists, but only for a set period of time: ‘the coming harvest, and the abundance which may now be expected for ten years to come, causes us to begin to think of recommending the colony to emigrants…we can and shall recommend it strongly to emigrants for the next seven years.’43 the drought had broken not long after the monitor predicted it would, vindicating their folk theory and offering hope that future immigrants could achieve agricultural and pastoral success during the intermitting wet ‘septennial’. the septennial theory was not just confined to the pages of sydney newspapers – by 1830 it reached an international audience through published works. in edward smith hall’s 1830 publication, the state of new south wales in december 1830, the climate theory that he so often expounded in the local new south wales press was now available to potential immigrants and the interested british public. smith hall (the editor of the sydney monitor) remarked that forty years of experience had ‘shown that our seasons are septennial. seven years of dry weather have hitherto been found to succeed seven of wet.’ however, he also argued that, in the 19 years he had lived in new south wales, the 41 ‘colloquial answer,’ colonial times, 12 june 1829, 3. 42 ‘the weather,’ the sydney monitor, 17 october 1829, 3. 43 ‘a good thing!’ the sydney monitor, 9 october 1830, 2. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 33 drought had ‘never yet been extreme.’44 it is obvious that smith hall had experienced a severe drought, and that his newspaper remarked often on the septennial theory while fervently hoping that a wet cycle would bring an end to that drought. smith hall does state, however, that had settlers in new south wales irrigated their land ‘from wells, tanks, and rivers, as is pursued by the farmers, gardeners, and vineyard dressers of spain, italy, and portugal, the effects of our droughts on all our most valuable crops, might have been partially avoided.’45 smith hall may have been reluctant to accurately depict the severity of australian drought, as negative reports of severe drought could deter potential immigrants. however, it appears that smith hall believed the effects of drought could be greatly tempered through efficient water management technology – something that had been sorely lacking in the australian colonies in the preceding forty years. interestingly, smith hall’s the state of new south wales in december 1830 was not a standalone book. rather, it formed part of a wider discussion sparked by an 1829 publication authored by edward gibbons wakefield, the colonial immigration promoter, titled a letter from sydney. at the time of publication, however, the authorship of this book was widely attributed to one of wakefield’s associates, robert gouger. wakefield and gouger asserted that ‘in all that has been written of the un-timbered, grassy regions, and the glorious climate of australasia, there is not a word of exaggeration.’46 in a letter from sydney, ‘drought’ is mentioned only once and is framed not as a natural feature of australian climate, but simply the effects of mismanagement, labour shortage and ignorance of irrigation techniques: englishmen being used at home to consider water an enemy, and to exercise much skill in getting rid of it, are ignorant of the means by which, in countries where the sun exerts great power, water becomes the first agent of production. when an englishman, therefore, laments over the blasting effects of drought in new south wales, he should be reminded that in italy, greece, and asia minor, ‘the dry season’ is the season of vegetation. but it is not owing to their ignorance only that englishmen in new south wales have neglected the management of water. it is owing, principally, to the scantiness of their number in proportion to the soil at their disposal.47 smith hall, in his state of new south wales publication, agreed with gouger and wakefield’s assessment of water management and the productive potential associated with widespread irrigation. he did, however, use his publication to clarify or further explain the cyclical nature of dry and wet periods in the colony of new south wales, alerting potential immigrants to the septennial theory and tempering wakefield and gouger’s references to australia’s ‘glorious’ climate. historian tony rogers delves into the phenomenon of climate ‘puffery’ or climate ‘boosterism’ in his history of weather and the settlement of south australia. rogers argues that for south australia to flourish and establish as a colony from the mid1830s, the south australian company had to resort to climate ‘puffery’ to lure potential immigrants from the united kingdom. this ‘puffery’, which accompanied promotions in 44 edward smith hall, the state of new south wales in december, 1830 : in a letter (london: joseph cross, 1831), 4. 45 ibid. 46 edward gibbon wakefield, edited by robert gouger, a letter from sydney, the principal town of australasia (london : joseph cross, 1829), 70. 47 ibid, 120. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 34 the early 1830s, would counter the established knowledge of australian weather and climate as variable and prone to serious, desiccating droughts. the south australian company argued that ‘warm summer days were followed by cool nights, [and] the droughts that were reported from new south wales did not affect south australia,’48 even though there was no evidence to prove otherwise. robert gouger, who was by then the secretary of the south australian land company and the south australian colonization commission, was now using the history of recurrent drought in new south wales as a twisted tool of immigration propaganda, designed to draw potential settlers away from new south wales and to establish homes in south australia. during the 1830s, australia’s recurrent lengthy droughts were also acknowledged in general emigration guides. henry carmichael’s 1834 publication hints relating to emigrants and emigration acknowledged that ‘long continued droughts’ occurred in australia, with calamitous results, but carmichael attempted to couch these significant problems in positive terms. periods of drought would act as a learning curve, with ‘every succeeding year…adding to the experience which enables the settler to counteract more effectually so serious a calamity, and extending the cultivation so as to lessen, every succeeding season, the probability of their general or very extensive recurrence.’49 here carmichael acknowledges the climatic difficulties that settlers faced in new south wales, and could expect to face in the future, while also acknowledging that british settlers were still adapting to an unknown climate. writing of drought in 1835, the sydney gazette reminded its readers of the benefits of irrigation: ‘we have frequently directed the attention of settlers who reside contiguous to rivers, to the advantages that might be derived from adopting the process of irrigation, which is found to be attended with such complete success in other parts of the world. in a country so subject as this is to the periodical visitation of so disastrous a calamity as drought, it might surely be expected that every precaution would be taken even partially to avert its consequences.’50 it is clear from the gazette’s statement that there was discussion in the colony about drought mitigation and adaptation measures and an understanding that drought would return to australia periodically. however, the article also shows that even six years after the end of the previous drought, drought-relieving irrigation techniques were not widely implemented. the origins of periodicity theories in colonial australia while the septennial theory was discussed in south-eastern australia during the 1820s, the specific origins of this particular theory is unclear. it is possible that the septennial climate theory is connected to judeo-christian ideology, in which the number seven is prominent. most relevant to the septennial theory, is chapter 41 in the book of genesis, 48 tony rogers, weather and the science of settlement: south australia 1836–1860 (australian meteorological association: kent town, 2011), 15. 49 henry carmichael, hints relating to emigrants and emigration: embracing observations and facts intended to display the real advantages of new south wales (london: d. walther, 1834), 6. 50 ‘drought,’ the sydney gazette, 5 march 1835, 2. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 35 the first book of the jewish torah and the christian bible. in this chapter, the egyptian pharaoh dreamt that seven plump, healthy cows appeared on the banks of the nile, feeding on the grass. these were followed by seven gaunt, ugly cows, which proceeded to devour the plump cows. the biblical figure joseph interpreted the pharaoh’s dream: god has shown to pharaoh what he is about to do. there will come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of egypt, but after them there will arise seven years of famine, and all the plenty will be forgotten in the land of egypt. the famine will consume the land, and the plenty will be unknown in the land by reason of the famine that will follow, for it will be very severe.51 the pharaoh’s dreams were a prophecy sent from god; after seven years of plenty, a devastating seven-year famine would follow. joseph advised the pharaoh to appoint overseers who would take a fifth of the grain produced in the productive years and store it. this would act as insurance against starvation during the lean years to follow. the weather cycle theories of 18th and 19th century europe evolved from a longer tradition of attempts at weather prediction or prognostication. historian jan golinski’s british weather and the climate of enlightenment highlights these attempts. in classical greece, almanacs called parapegmata were used to track astronomical and weather cycles. parapegmata were used for both predictive purposes and to guide daily activities. the publication and use of weather almanacs continued throughout the early modern period in europe and in european colonies.52 during the 18th century, however, there was a shift towards the systematic recording of weather. golinski remarks that ‘the program of systematic recording suggested new ways in which these seasonal patterns might be studied and methods of prediction perhaps devised.’53 golinski notes that, while those collecting weather data in 18th century europe did not always use their data to make weather predictions, ‘the aspiration to predictability was inherent in their enterprise.’54 the weather cycle theories in the 18th and 19th centuries built on a long tradition of attempts at weather prediction. katharine anderson’s history of victorian-era meteorology indicates that weather cycle theory, connecting economic data and climate data, had also emerged during the 1820s in the united kingdom.55 in 1829, george mackenzie, a lieutenant in scotland’s perthshire militia, derived a 54-year weather cycle theory from his ‘register of the weather’, a registry of meteorological data collected in dornoch, scotland, from 1803. in this instance, mackenzie’s theory was developed through the practice of recording, compiling and analysing data – ‘daily and hourly observations…were inserted at the time of observation, and the register is still continued in the same manner; so that each day’s recorded observations include what may be termed a natural history of the appearance and operation of the elements for the time.’56 sean munger’s paper in this volume 51 genesis 41:28–31, the holy bible, english standard version (crossway: wheaton, ill., 2001). 52 jan golinski, british weather and the climate of enlightenment (chicago: the university of chicago press, 2007), 92. 53 ibid, 96. 54 ibid, 107. 55 katharine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: the university of chicago press, 2005), 154–155. 56 george mackenzie, manual of the weather for the year mdcccxxx: including a brief account of the cycles of the winds and weather, and the circle of the prices of wheat (edinburgh: william blackwood, 1829 and london: t. cadell, 1829), 12. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 36 highlights the work of the early 19th century ‘weather watchers’ george mackenzie and british chemist luke howard. in 1818, drawing on personally-collected weather data, howard proposed that climate patterns in britain followed a 17-year cycle. by 1841, howard had refined his cycle to 18 years.57 while the british in australia had been recording weather data since their arrival in 1788, it is not evident that they were relying on data to develop the septennial theory of periodicity during the 1820s in the way that mackenzie and howard were during the same period. a septennial theory was also evident in early 19th century sea-lore. for example, when ships were delayed, the monitor expressed fears the vessels had struck icebergs. it was noted in the report that sailors familiar with the south seas alleged that icebergs were more numerous in the lower latitudes ‘every seventh year, than during the other six.’58 the article remarked that ‘there appears to us some affinity between this fact and the drought and rainy seasons of new south wales which are also sexennial or septennial.’59 it is not clear, however, whether this aspect of sea-lore contributed to the development of the septennial theory or was merely coincidental. the septennial theory that emerged during the 1820s was one of the earliest conceptual theories in australian meteorology but it does not appear to have been informed by either quantitative or qualitative data. over the course of the 19th century, as more weather and climate data was collected, the seven-year theory was competing with other attempts to explain australia’s climate variations. 60 in 1877, government astronomer and meteorologist h.c. russell compiled quantitative and qualitative weather data and proposed that different regions of australia were subject to different patterns of variation. russell remarked that ‘the shortest is that which for many years pleased meteorological observers in tasmania, viz., two years – a wet and a dry one alternately…but after some twenty or five-and-twenty years of regular recurrence, during which observers naturally thought it was fully proved and established, a change came.’61 russell noted that ‘a period, however, of between six and seven years may be traced in our dry years a long way back; thus: 1872, 1865, 1858, 1852, 1845, 1838, 1832, 1826, 1820, 1814, 1808.’62 interestingly, he neglected to include some of the very dry years of the 19th century (missing the 1826–1829 drought entirely) and includes years that were not particularly dry like 1820 and 1832.63 russell, however, was not fully convinced by the septennial theory and stated that ‘no period has found such general favour as that known as the sun-spots, or eleven-years period. its advocates assert that meteorological 57 see sean munger’s paper in this issue. 58 ‘domestic intelligence,’ the monitor, 5 july 1828, 8. 59 ibid. 60 the seven-year theory of climate variability persisted even into the 20th century: “the nineteen-year drought cycle,” the queenslander, 23 june 1900, 1184s; “queensland’s state tenants,” the brisbane courier, 14 august 1902, 10; “a cycle of good seasons,” the advertiser, 7 january 1909, 7. 61 russell, climate of new south wales, 170. for further analysis of h.c. russell’s theories about ‘periodicity’ see don garden, droughts, floods and cyclones: el niños that shaped our colonial past (north melbourne: australian scholarly publishing, 2009), 251–253 and emily o’gorman, “soothsaying” or ‘“science?”: h. c. russell, meteorology, and environmental knowledge of rivers in colonial australia,’ in climate, science, and colonization, 177–194. 62 ibid. 63 j. gergis and l. ashcroft, ‘rainfall variations in south-eastern australia part 2: a comparison of documentary, early instrumental and palaeoclimate records, 1788–2008,’ international journal of climatology 2013 (33:14), 2973–2987. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 37 phenomena vary as the area of spots on the sun’s surface.’64 by 1896, russell had proposed another theory of wet and dry periodicity, this time in a nineteen-year cycle.65 russell’s work, continuing into the late 19th century, built on the first hand weather knowledge and data collected by government officials and independent observers and reflects the struggle of british settlers in australia to ascribe patterns to an erratic climate. conclusion meteorological records were kept in the australian colonies of new south wales and tasmania, and had been kept in australia since the arrival of the british in 1788. despite the availability of numerical weather data in australia and colonial interest in recording weather data during the first forty years of british settlement, climate was not often understood or examined using the quantitative meteorological data that had been accrued and, in many cases, shared publicly. despite this, meteorological theories regarding climate ‘periodicity’ or the cycles of wet weather and drought in australia were proposed. the septennial theory formalised settlers’ memories of weather and climate and provided a proto-framework for understanding the quite variable climate of an unfamiliar country. this was one of the earliest discussions of ‘periodicity’ of wet and dry periods in colonial australia, pre-dating by over forty years the more rigorous discussions that took place in colony. public discourse surrounding the septennial theory and the regular recurrence of lengthy periods of drought cemented these years-long droughts as a cyclical feature of australian climate, rather than an aberration or a one-off event. for british settlers, drought had become a potentially recurrent feature of future climate. this prompted discussions in the late 1820s and early 1830s about the need to implement innovative water management techniques, inspired by the irrigation habits of people in arid climates around the world. while the theory that new south wales, in particular, was subject to an alternating seven-year period of drought, followed by a seven-year period of good rainfall, was not widely accepted, the discussions about septennial theory sparked wider public discourse about recurrent drought events. however, the discussions do not appear to have incited widespread change in the way water was managed or inspired british settlers to prepare for potential future droughts. despite this, the discussion of australian climate and septennial theory marks an important moment in australian meteorological history and understanding. acknowledgements this paper was initially presented at the "climate in meteorology, meteorology in climate studies" workshop at the university of bergen, norway in november 2014. claire fenby gratefully acknowledges the generous support of an international commission on history of meteorology (ichm) travel bursary, which assisted with 64 russell, climate of new south wales, 172. 65 emily o’gorman, “soothsaying” or ‘“science?”: h. c. russell, meteorology, and environmental knowledge of rivers in colonial australia,’ in climate, science, and colonization, 177–194. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 38 attendance costs. this paper was adapted from research published in claire fenby’s phd thesis experiencing, understanding and adapating to climate in south-eastern australia, 1788–1860 (university of melbourne, 2012), which formed part of the southeastern australian recent climate history (search project) arc linkage project (lp0990151) outcomes. hom6_02_persson_fifty_years_later   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)         7                   fifty years later anders persson swedish meteorological and hydrological institute (smhi) stockholm, sweden in 1974 i had the privilege of meeting and talking to jacob (jack) bjerknes in bergen, norway, a city immortalized in the history of meteorology thanks to the "school" that jack and his father founded in 1917. we were in bergen for the 9th nordic meteorologist meeting (nmm9), held every two years in one of the scandinavian nations on a rotating basis. this was during a rare spell of dry and sunny weather, unusual for this part of rainy western norway, and the hosts had invited two of their most legendary meteorologists: bjerknes, who had come all the way from los angeles and sverre petterssen who was supposed to come from london. but these were the times of the vietnam war and the watergate scandal, and sverre petterssen had renounced his u.s. citizenship in an angry letter to the white house (petterssen, 2001). stateless and thus without any passport, he could therefore not leave the uk. jack’s youthful memories petterssen’s absence was to some extent compensated for by erik palmén from finland who regularly attended the nmms (fig. 2.1). his friendship with jack dated back to the period between the world wars when, through their theoretical and practical works, they engaged in scholarly combat with their german and austrian doubters and opponents (friedman, 1989, p. 246; bergeron, 1959, p. 462; haurwitz and haurwitz, 1939, p. 53 ff). i had hoped to learn more about this from jack when we sat down in the park outside the geophysical institute. but recollections of his youth were freshest in jack's memory. born in stockholm, with the first nine years of his childhood there, and then with almost half his life in the united states, he didn’t feel very "norwegian": “jeg føler meg mere svensk enn norsk,” he let slip. however, when the import of what he had said hit him, he corrected himself quickly: “men mest av alt nordisk!”1                                                                                                                 1 ”i feel more swedish than norwegian – but most of all nordic!” 8   persson,  fifty  years  later           8   fig. 2.1. eric palmén and jack bjerknes inspecting weather charts at nmm9 in 1974. photo taken by anders persson. jack’s lecture on climate change the nmms featured numerous lectures on mixed meteorological topics. jack bjerknes chose to speak on his latest research. while all young career minded meteorologists used to fill the blackboard with mathematical equations, jack just wrote a + b and drew a trapezoid. the trapezoid symbolized the pacific and a + b the warm and cool surface water oscillations between the el niño and la niña phases, the more a, the less b etc. now, 40 years later, it is easy to see that we had listened to a speech of historical significance in the meteorological-oceanographic sciences. at that time, within the broad meteorological community the “climate” was something you worked out in 30–year periods and which was determined by the variations in the earth's path and axis tilt, perhaps also volcanic eruptions and human emissions after a nuclear war. with the el niño (southern oscillation) attention was drawn to the atmospheric internal variability. in 1974 the oceanographic measurements were still rudimentary, to any extent with only surface water temperatures. jack bjerknes and his oceanographer colleagues at that time would have felt like children on christmas eve with a very generous santa   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)         9   claus if they had had access to today's networks of both surface and deep-based ocean measurements. the importance of satellites one day we visited the weather ship polar front ii or “mike” lying in bergen harbour for overhaul. its sister ship polar front i was on duty out in the norwegian sea. while expressing a high opinion of the weather satellite's future importance, jack felt in 1964 that it would require a global network of weather ships with aerological equipment to reap the benefits of modern numerical forecasting. for the next two decades meteorologists would convert satellite radiance measurements into artificial radiosonde observations (satems) which were then assimilated by the numerical forecast systems analysis in the same way as usual radiosonde observations . this was still the situation when i was employed at ecmwf in 1991. however, since the creation of these satems involved interaction with another nwp system, it was seen as “incestuous,” and work had already started on the 4dimensional variational analysis system (4dvar) that would revolutionize the nwp and help to consolidate ecmwf as the leading nwp centre. 4dvar the idea of variational analysis had originated with soviet researchers but had been taken over and pursued by french meteorologists olivier talagrand, phillippe courtier, florance rabier, jean-noël thepaut and others. the first innovation with 4dvar was that the satellite radiance data could be assimilated much more smoothly if the model's "first guess" figured out what radiances the satellites "ought to" observe. through sophisticated algorithms the differences were used to correct the analysed temperatures and humidities to make the emitted radiances as close as possible to the observed ones. the second innovation with 4dvar was its dynamic consistency. in the same way as any forecast meteorologist who analyzes an 18 utc map of the north atlantic with the scattered ship observations is keen to look back on the earlier maps at 15 utc, 12 utc, and maybe 09 utc to make a reassessment of the analyzes and observations in light of the later 18 utc data, the mathematical algorithm in 4dvar went back and forth over a 6-hour time window to make observations affect the analyses in a dynamically consistent way. it was intriguing to witness, how a single moisture observation thereby could change the wind and geopotential fields. these changes also prevented the humidity data from being wiped out because of physical-dynamic imbalances. today's scientists trying to assimilate moisture information from the radar echoes face the same problem: without modification of the wind, the important moisture information is smoothed out in a few hours. the development of 4dvar was very much a french affair and benefited from an almost endless stream of young female scientists from météo france, including florence rabier, mathilde hervour, and elisabeth gérard, who had been recruited by phillipe courtier. i managed to break into this coterie when, once during one of our missions together, we discussed my section’s forecast error tracking using “group velocity thinking”. back at ecmwf courtier organized a project “to do with 8   persson,  fifty  years  later           10   mathematics what anders is doing with his eyes.” in very simple words, it meant running the 4dvar backwards in time (rabier et al., 1993; persson 1999, 2000). the 4dvar technique has also found its use in climate research by enabling scientists to analyze the 3-dimensional structure of the atmosphere back into the 19th century, maybe into the 1780s, from only surface observations. the future of weather forecasters at the nmm9 in 1974 all this progress was not even dreamt of when we gathered one afternoon to discuss the future of human weather forecasters in the light of computer forecasts. meteorologists were divided into two competing "camps": one claiming that in "5-10 years" there would be no need for any forecasters, another claiming that no computer could ever replace an experienced weather forecaster. in 1964, jack bjerknes had not seen any conflict between forecasters and nwp, and that was also the opinion both sigbiørn grønaas and i expressed in the 1974 debate. when i became more and more engaged at ecmwf in the 1980s, it turned out that there was a need for meteorologists who stood with one foot in both "camps." i was drawn into the information and education activities, with a focus on how best to use the ecmwf medium-term forecasts. i must admit that it was not totally clear what should be taught. much of forecasting was intuitive and based on experience. if you wanted to learn to write poetry or cook italian food, there was a plethora of books, but not on how to do weather forecasting using nwp. the “user guide to ecmwf forecast products” (2011), which i became in charge of, tried to remedy this want. i was not quite satisfied with it at the time, but there was nothing better. the limits of predictability in 1974 what would become ecmwf was taking shape.2 at the nmm9 we learned that norway had decided to stay cautious, among other reasons because they doubted that 10-day forecasts were ever possible. at this time the useful predictability was 4-5 days, and there was great uncertainty about how much it could be extended. the question has been raised (elsner and honoré, 1992) why it took so long for edward lorenz 's classic predictability papers (lorenz, 1963; 1969) to have influence? in 1972 i made a study of the predictability literature and found that in the 1960s he had been considered too pessimistic at a time when overly optimistic predictability studies pointed at 20+ days predictability. this was, however, shown by döös (1969, p.53) to be due to misinterpreted verification statistics. but leading scandinavian scientists still told me that there was an "energy gap" between synoptic and subsynoptic waves that would confine the forecast errors to the latter. on the other hand, studies had shown that the lack of observations over the north pacific ocean would set a limit of 5-6 days predictability over europe. all those concerns lingered into the 1990s when they came to naught when the use of satellite data through 4dvar made us almost independent of surface observations over the north pacific and other oceans. the predictability of the global                                                                                                                 2 http://www.ecmwf.int/about/history/.   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)         11   forecasts is now considered to be 8-9 days and perhaps the “20 days optimists” from the 1960s will be right one day, albeit for the wrong reason. from this perspective, ecmwf and other nwp centres should be counted in the same high scientific class as cern and the hubble space telescope. while the former penetrates into the smallest components of matter and energy and the latter explores the extent of the universe, nwp raises the fundamental question of how far we can see into the future. is "laplace’s demon" possible, an existence mastering all natural laws and knowing the initial conditions who can calculate everything that will happen or has happened? this challenge was a great inspiration to the father of nwp, vilhelm bjerknes and has remained so for many nwp modelers (see bergeron, 1959, pp. 440-41) but from a down-to-earth practical point of view: the details of even the most high-resolution weather forecasts are inaccurate within a day or so. the “jumpiness” of nwp is an additional source of annoyance, since the next run may come up with a completely different development and thereby appear to disavow the earlier forecast. in 1986 i attended a meeting at ecmwf where a group of dutch meteorologists emphatically pointed out that any forecast is pretty useless unless there is a way to tell how likely it is (tennekes et al., 1986). inspired by americans visionaries (chuck leith, e s epstein, phil thompson) this initiated research first in "forecast forecast skill" and then, when computer capacity allowed, in ensemble technique (lewis, 2005). this was the second major meteorological revolution in the 1990s i had the privilege to take part in. an often-overlooked asset at ecmwf, at that time lacking in many other research institutions, was their excellent restaurant! it encouraged cross-fertilizing contacts across sectional and departmental boundaries. it gave young scientists opportunities to meet more established colleagues and visitors. you might one day find yourself discussing group velocity with brian hoskins in the lunch queue, next day follow eugenia kalnay and tim palmer arguing over perturbations techniques over the roast beef and at the end of the week, over a cup of coffee, listen to ed lorenz’s recollections when he was a weather forecaster in the pacific during wwii. ensemble forecasts while the work on 4dvar tried to reduce the analysis errors, the work with ensemble system was almost the opposite. a large number (first 32 later 50) of alternative analyses, perturbed within analysis uncertainty, were created. if 10-day forecasts, run from these modified analyses, were in general in agreement with each other, we could be pretty sure of the prognosis irrespective of any faulty or misinterpreted observations upstream. in case they differed much, we could at least get an idea of what would not happen, and probability estimates for possible developments. this statistical approach to weather forecasting faced some difficulties in finding support among meteorologists in both "camps." in spite of their disagreements, they were united by their common classical deterministic newtonian training. statistics, "the science of uncertainty" was at best seen as a kind of perfume: it's good that it exists, but it is a pity that it needs to be used. to express uncertainty in any form was seen as worst as “cowardliness”, at best as a way to conveniently cover your back. the realisation that in a world with non-perfect forecasts the uncertainty information had a positive value, 8   persson,  fifty  years  later           12   increased the usefulness of the forecasts, still had a long way to go. this became the main theme in the 2011 edition of the “user guide to ecmwf forecast products”, the one i am most satisfied with. statistics in meteorology if the haunting spectre in 1964 for many in the meteorological community was the computer, it today seems to be the growing influence of statistical thinking that challenges the classic deterministic thinking. but statistical know-how is needed in our age of “big data” (mayer-schönberger and cukier, 2013) the weather forecaster stands in a flow, or rather “overflow” of information—as do stockbrokers, politicians, military—and just like them acts as an “intuitive statistician” (kahneman, 2011). they have to make quick decisions with conflicting indications from various models, the sudden appearance of new information from radar screens or oceanographic buoys. however, the assessment of uncertainty is complicated by a human tendency to be overconfident; to rather look for arguments that support an idea than those that contradict it. underestimation of randomness may fool the forecasters to see systematic behaviors in the models where there are none. then there is the problem of how to present forecast uncertainty in a form that is understood and not least, gives a fair chance to make the right decision. with the increasing emphasis on extreme or "high impact" weather resistance against probability forecasts is slowly giving way. even the most hardcore determinists realize they may have to shelve their planned mountaineering even if the probability of snow and storm gusts is less than 100%. in a new year's reflection in 2005 the then smhi's director maria ågren held the view that also the climate debate needs to be more probabilistic: probabilities of severe climate deterioration need not be 100% or even 95% to justify action. i think jack bjerknes would be pleased to see that, despite prophecies to the contrary, the weather forecasters are still with us and perhaps there have never been so many around as today, not least in the private companies. maybe they remain, not "despite" the computer, but "thanks” to the computer. thanks to the high quality of the weather forecasts, people can now begin to take them seriously into account. but to do that most efficiently they need to know more about their uncertainties and possible extremes. here lie the challenges for the future. references bergeron, t., 1959: methods in scientific weather analysis and forecasting. in an outline in the history of idea and hints at a program, in the atmosphere and the sea in motion, scientific contributions to the rossby memorial volume, ed. b. bolin, pp. 440-474. stockholm,   rockefeller   institute   press   and   oxford   university  press. döös, b.r., 1971: the status and outlook of numerical weather prediction, zeitschrift f. meteorologie 22:1-2, 46-53.   history  of  meteorology  6  (2014)         13   ecmwf seminar proceedings 6-10 september 1999, pp. 123-38, http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/show?id=85676 elsner, j.b. and j.c. honoré, 1994: ignoring chaos, bull. am. met. soc. 75:10, 1846-47. friedman, r.m., 1989: appropriating the weather, vilhelm bjerknes and the construction of modern meteorology, ithaca, ny, cornell univ. press, 251 pp. haurwitz b. and haurwitz, e., 1939: pressure and temperature variations in the free atmosphere over boston, harvard meteorological studies, 3, cambridge, mass., harvard university press; london, h. milford, oxford university press, 74 pp. kahneman, d., 2011: thinking, fast and slow. allen lane, penguin books, 499 pp. lewis, j., 2004: roots of ensemble forecasting, mon. wea. rev. 133:7, 1865-85. lorenz, e., 1963: deterministic nonperiodic flow, j. atm. sci. 20, 130-41. _____.. 1969: the predictability of a flow that posses many scales of motion, tellus 21, 289-307. mayer-schönberger, v. and k. cukier, 2013: big data, a revolution that will transform how we live, work and think, john murray, 242 pp. persson, a. 1999: monitoring the ecmwf forecast system by dynamical methods, pp. 150-153. 13th conference on numerical weather prediction, denver, colorado, 13-17 september 1999, am. met. soc., boston. _____. 2011: user guide to ecmwf forecast products, available at http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/user_guide.pdf petterssen, s,. 2001: weathering the storm: sverre petterssen, the d-day forecast, and the rise of modern meteorology, j.r. fleming, ed. am. met. soc. boston, 329 pp. rabier, f, p. courtier, m. hervou, b. strauss and a. persson, 1993: sensitivity to forecast error to initial conditions using the adjoint model. ecmwf tech. memo 197, http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/show?id=83728 tennekes, h, a.p. baede and j.d.opsteegh, 1986: forecasting forecast skill, workshop on predictability in the medium and extended range 17-19 march 1986, available at http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/list/16234 anders persson (b.1944) chose a career in meteorology in 1964, the year of bjerknes’s essay, “half a century of change in the meteorological scene,” in the mistaken belief that meteorology was a simpler science than quantum mechanics or relativity theory. starting as a weather forecaster at smhi and then as a senior scientist at ecmwf and the british met office, he has, at close range, followed the spectacular development of numerical weather prediction (nwp), one of science’s great success stories. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 95 the ipcc and the geographies of credibility martin mahony king’s college london london, united kingdom this volume is concerned with the historical and sociological processes by which status, authority and credibility have been gained, lost and perhaps regained in the long history of atmospheric and climate change knowledges. it is concerned with how different expert ‘consensi’ have emerged as authoritative statements at different times; with how narratives of climatic change have escaped the discursive clutches of their originators to become central – if often contested – objects of political concern; and with how any lost forms of scientific credibility or authority may be regained – not through the application of more or better science, but through reconsideration of the institutions from which putative consensi emerge. it has become something of a truism in history of science to claim that ‘science’ is constituted by situated, local practices of knowledge production and of social warranting. we might say that science is made of places – we cannot understand either the cognitive content of scientific knowledge or its cultural authority without understanding the specific places and spaces where knowledge is constructed and circulates. work on the historical geographies and sociologies of science has insisted on the mutual constitution of the cognitive, the social and the spatial, in studies for example of the gentlemanly laboratory spaces of enlightenment-era natural philosophy (shapin 1988; withers & livingstone 1999), and of the networks of privileged virtual witnesses who offered early experimentalists a source of epistemic and cultural reinforcement for their contested claims to reliable knowledge (shapin & schaffer 1985). geographers of science thus view science as a geographical phenomenon. scholars such as david livingstone (2003), charles withers (2010) and richard powell (2007), with periodic encouragement from the likes of steven shapin (2003), have come to position space as a constitutive element of scientific practice, and not just another ‘factor’ in the history of science, like class, race or gender. “spatiality”, argues shapin (2003, 90), “is a necessary condition for there being such a thing as science … where else could science take place but in places, and how else could it travel but across spaces? relevant differences and similarities between places are empirical matters, as are the means by which, and the efficiency with which, science travels across various spaces”. in this paper i explore this question of travelling science in the case of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), the producer of the most comprehensive, influential and scrutinised assessments of the sciences of climate change. in so doing, i seek to link the question of travelling science to that of credibility. in shapin’s (1995) treatment of credibility, he positions it at the heart of the challenge of epistemology. he suggests that mahony, the ipcc and the geographies of credibility 96 science proceeds through the production of metonymic statements – “x stands for y”, and that “all testimony about states of affairs stand in a metonymic relationship to those states of affairs, and the condition of your knowing about these things – otherwise unavailable to you – is your accepting the legitimacy of that relationship. accordingly … you are dependent on some practical resolution to the problem of credibility” (ibid., 261). by “practical resolution”, shapin refers to the “contingent social and cultural practices” by which individual beliefs are translated into collectively-held knowledge. credibility may arise from personal familiarity. it may mean deference to authoritative persons or institutions, or it may suggest an allegiance between particular scientific claims and particular cultural and political contexts. credibility is, in this sense, distinct from questions of procedural validity (bloor 1976). like space, credibility is positioned by shapin as a constitutive entity of scientific practice – the construction of science is the construction of credibility. understanding the geographies of credibility is therefore inseparable from understanding the geographies of scientific knowledge. shapin is alert to the conceptual confluence of space and credibility. for shared belief to be constructed between or outside of expert groups, “it must travel great distances, in both physical and cultural space” (1995, 270). where personal familiarity is lacking, shapin suggests, the “inducements to distrust and scepticism” are high (ibid.). one doesn’t need to inquire deeply into the recent history of climate politics to see that it offers fertile ground for those interested in the phenomena of trust and scepticism in the boundary spaces of science and public policy (e.g. hulme 2009; jasanoff 2011; beck 2012). the production of credible metonymic statements about the state of the climate has always been a challenging task. as individuals, we are unable to perceive the subtle changes in atmospheric chemistry, thermal energy, and meteorological patterns which are the hallmarks – the traces – of both natural variability and anthropogenic climate change. practical resolutions to the problem of credibility have therefore been at the heart of efforts to institutionalize the sciences of climate change, as i will show below. the problematic metonymics of climate change are rendered all the more acute as the horizons of knowledge and action extend far into the future, well beyond the capacity of individuals, unless they have built their own climate models or crystal balls, to test the legitimacy of statements that future x stands for future y. this problematic raises questions of epistemic monopoly. for zygmunt bauman, certain esoteric objects of scientific inquiry “appear only under very special circumstances, to which no one else has access: on the screen of a multi-million-dollar accelerator, in the lens of a gigantic telescope” or, we might add, in the code and output of global climate models. bauman goes on, “only the scientists can see them and experiment with them; these objects and events are, so to speak, a monopolistic possession of the given branch of science…being the sole owners of the experience which provides the raw material for their study, the scientists are in full control of the way the material is construed, processes, analysed, interpreted, narrated” (bauman 1992, 72). however, this picture of “full control” over knowledge construction and framing is problematised by an institution like the ipcc – a hybrid space at the boundaries of science and politics. here, scientists and government delegates gather in the same settings to scope-out reports, review their contents, and approve the final wording of the most high-profile and potentially consequential knowledge claims to emerge out of the assessment process. together, these actors engage in what sociologist clark miller (2001) labels ‘hybrid management’ of the science-politics boundary. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 97 gaining it – authoritative hybrids and credible knowledge the ipcc is an experiment. it is an experiment in bringing-together knowledge on an international stage about a global problem of unmatched complexity. it is an experiment in the social organisation of knowledge production. it is an experiment in attaining political credibility and legitimacy for knowledge claims seen as having far-reaching implications for the organisation of contemporary and future societies. like all experiments, its boundaries – institutional, epistemic, cultural – are not pre-ordained but are products of social negotiation and settlement (galison 1987). the panel, while formally based in geneva, is predominantly constituted as a decentred and constantly evolving network of volunteer authors who conduct most of their work remotely from both the organisation’s centre and each other. a regular series of meetings at various levels of the organisation’s vertical hierarchy facilitate progress and coordination, leading to the publication approximately every six years of a three volume report in print and online. current knowledge about climate change is presented across three relatively stabilised themes – the physical science relating to climate change (working group i), the potential impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems (working group ii), and the possible mitigation strategies that may be adopted (working group iii). draft chapters are produced by nominated and approved authors according to a largely preordained structure, before being reviewed by fellow experts and government representatives and being subsequently accepted for publication. five complete assessment reports have so far been published – in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2014. these voluminous assessments have been interspersed with periodic ‘special reports’ on more focused topics, such as extreme weather (ipcc 2011). the official constitution of the ipcc took place in geneva, at the first meeting of the panel in november 1988. the establishment of the panel was a joint initiative of the world meteorological organisation (wmo) and the united nations environment programme (unep), both subsidiaries of the un, which itself formally recognised the action in resolution 43/53, adopted by the un general assembly in new york on 6th december 1988. shardul agrawala (1998a) suggests that four main actors were key to the formation of the ipcc: the world meteorological organization (wmo), the united nations environment programme (unep), the international council of scientific unions (icsu) and the united states government. despite the consensus expressed at the villach climate science conferences of the mid-1980s (which agrawala contends was as great as that which led to the montreal protocol on ozone-depleting substances), it was perceived by many that the political complexity of climate change was such that the villach statements were insufficient to drive political action. in light of dissatisfaction with the advisory group on greenhouse gases (aggg), a small advisory group set up in 1986 by wmo, unep and icsu which was seen as underfunded and too distant from the policy process to be effective, calls were made – particularly by unep’s mostafa tolba – for a more comprehensive international assessment effort. following various formative interactions between the us and wmo’s executive council (see agrawala 1998a, 611) resolutions were made for wmo, in conjunction with unep, to work towards the establishment of an intergovernmental assessment body. the ‘intergovernmental’ form of the assessment body was largely a result of us demands, which agrawala (1998a) attributes to diverging opinions about climate change between various us government agencies and the republican white house administration. an intergovernmental mechanism emerged as a “common denominator agreement” (ibid., mahony, the ipcc and the geographies of credibility 98 612) between competing factions in the us. 1 agrawala argues that the us administration (particularly the department of energy) was suspicious of any assessment conducted by experts who had not been governmentally accredited. the establishment of an intergovernmental mechanism also accorded with what appeared to be a reticence within the incumbent us administration to act on climate change immediately, and a desire to support more research before making political and economic commitments (ibid., 614). after much backroom negotiation between agencies in the us, a proposal was put to the wmo for a panel consisting of “representatives of countries making major contributions to various aspects of...climate change”, which should “allow for adequate representation of countries from all regions ... [while] ... representatives of ... international organizations should participate as observers” (us draft proposal, quoted in agrawala 1998a, 615). over its first assessment cycle (1988-1990), the ipcc operated in effect as the global setting for the negotiation of the science and politics of climate change. working group iii was essentially a space for debating the merits of policy alternatives, whereas its next manifestation in 1995 was the more prosaically framed ‘economic and social dimensions of climate change’. a number of developing countries expressed a dissatisfaction at the first report’s ambiguous positioning at the boundary of science and politics, and were wary of the ipcc becoming the only setting where a climate change governance architecture would be negotiated (miller 2009). the intergovernmental negotiating committee was thus established in 1990 under the auspices of the un, and was the institutional setting for the drafting of the unfccc (bodansky 2001). this act of boundary making strengthened the ipcc’s selfidentification as a scientific body, with a discursive firewall established between deliberation which was ‘policy relevant’ but ‘policy neutral’, never ‘policy prescriptive’ (shaw & robinson 2004). these early negotiations and settlements produced an institution which is looked upon by many as a producer of robust, scientifically credible assessments of climate change which nonetheless offer useful inputs to policy processes (hulme & mahony 2010). the social authority of the ipcc was endorsed with the joint award of the 2007 nobel peace prize to the ipcc and to al gore, in recognition of their respective services to raising worldwide awareness of climate change. however, this path to prestige was by no means smooth. losing it – the geographies of contested credibility since the early debates about the proper institutional settings for scientific assessment and political deliberation, the ipcc’s institutional history has been marked by credibility struggles and ongoing ‘boundary work’, or efforts to define, rhetorically and practically, the boundary between science and politics (gieryn 1983; 1999). this boundary work has proceeded alongside, and has perhaps been most heated in relation to, efforts to detect a change in the climate system and to attribute that change to human activities. it is this work of parsing-out the natural and the social in obsessively repeated simulations of the climate system which has given rise to the ipcc’s headline claims, such as “[m]ost of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the 1 agrawala also suggests that that the us’s insistence on such an organisation was a strategic move (by the us authorities and the wmo) to prevent unep’s mostafa tolba from exercising the kind discursive and political leverage over the climate issue which he had over the science and politics of ozone depletion (cf. grundmann 2006). history of meteorology 6 (2014) 99 observed increase in anthropogenic ghg concentrations” (ipcc 2007a, 5). for bruno latour, this delineation of the natural and the social is deeply political: researchers who establish a causal link between human action and global climate change ‘do politics’ in the sense of altering the associations – and thus directly the ‘social’ – that all beings establish with all other beings. they are thus engaged in a cosmology – a cosmopolitics – involving, in different ways, all the entities that previously did not count in the public understanding of problems (latour 2012, 72). but the science of detection and attribution not only re-constitutes the social. it also plays upon the modernist boundary between the natural and the social and emphasises a renewed ontology of climatic hybridity (see also latour 2013, 8). in latourian terms, the ‘cosmopolitical’ force of such claims is illustrated by the controversy which surrounded the detection and attribution chapter of the second assessment report (sar) in 1995, which was subject to criticism from actors concerned that the ipcc’s review process had been corrupted by authors making alterations to the chapter after its formal acceptance by government representatives (edwards 1997; edwards & schneider 2001). edwards & schneider offer echoes of polanyi’s (1962) scientific republicanism in their defence of the ipcc’s capacity for learning and development through ‘self-governance’. yet the ipcc’s critics in this case embraced the quality assurance seemingly provided by peer review and governmental oversight, even though those sceptical of the reality and severity of climate change have often pointed to the intergovernmental nature of the ipcc as evidence of the political corruption of the scientific process (e.g. laframboise 2012). outside of the ipcc process itself and concerns over the scientific veracity of assessments, commentators have critiqued the kind of monopolising tendencies described by zygmunt bauman (see above). for tol (2011), the ipcc has exercised an unhelpful monopoly over climate change debates. for miller (2009), what he calls the ‘unitary globalism’ of the ipcc has been achieved at the expense of a politics of climate which is able to embrace a variety of different knowledges and modes of reasoning about environmental risk and possible political responses. the ipcc’s unitary globalism has arisen from the discursive dominance of the natural sciences in the assessment process (bjurström & polk 2011), and from the construction of a linear, deterministic relationship between computer modelling and understandings of human responses to environmental change (beck 2011; hulme 2011; nielsen & sejersen 2012). myanna lahsen (2004; 2007) translates these concerns into a gramscian language of power and hegemony. the hegemony of certain scientific framings of climate change and potential response strategies for her is not just about disciplinary hierarchies. rather, through her study of scientific and political communities in brazil, she has shown how science is seen to function as a vector of hegemonic power, co-produced with the economic and political dominance of northern states. she draws attention to the suspicion felt by her brazilian interview respondents of the narratives and framings put forward by the ipcc, particularly those relating to the amazon rainforest, its fate under a changing climate, and the potential for using the forest as a ‘sink’ for accumulated greenhouse gases. this science is not seen as being an apolitical victim of political manipulation by hegemonic forces. rather, the science is political. it ties together entities of the material world in new, contestable ways, and is the locus of a politics that would interfere with the political sovereignty and development rights of a country like brazil (lahsen 2007). here, the construction of scientific credibility is not about the validity of climate modelling methodologies but about “inequities in national mahony, the ipcc and the geographies of credibility 100 capacities to produce and frame knowledge” (lahsen, 2007: 178). it is about the postcolonial legacy of a “north-south divide” in political and economic power (joshi 2013), and about the cognitive and normative priorities of diverse and dispersed communities of experts and decision-makers (hulme 2010). the leadership of the ipcc has always been aware of this challenge of international credibility. following stephen hilgartner's (2000) work on the significance of performance and staging in the credibility of regulatory science, we can read the institutional history of the ipcc as a history of performative stagings. following the relatively low numbers of developing country experts present in the preparation of the first ipcc report (jäger 2009: 151), efforts were made to ensure better geographic representation. as early as 1989, action plans were drawn-up to widen participation, including the provision of financial support through a trust fund. the issue of participation was the only topic discussed at every ipcc bureau session between 1989 and 1996, with the ipcc’s first chair bert bolin famously remarking in 1991 that, right now many countries, especially developing countries, simply do not trust assessments in which their scientists and policymakers have not participated. don’t you think global credibility demands global representation? (quoted in agrawala, 1998: 628) this oft-cited question represents an acknowledgement of the performative potential of broad participation, and an instrumental linking of participation to trust and credibility. participation is not presented just as a means of widening the epistemic and deliberative profile of ipcc assessments by enrolling actors with diverse perspectives or worldviews, but as a means of ensuring broad governmental assent (cf. fiorino 1990). the process of recruiting authors 2 has thus become an important element of the ipcc’s efforts to attain international, public credibility. although much of the recruitment process takes place ‘backstage’ (to use hilgartner’s theatrical metaphor), away from public eyes, the presentation of ipcc products on the public stages of the popular media and the internet has increasingly featured statements and statistics describing the geographic diversity of the expertise represented in the reports. but, as lahsen (2007) argues, this instrumental linking of participation and credibility may not hold true. the focus on widening participation obscures the deeper, structural questions of unequal scientific capacities. the act of participation does not necessarily lead to influence over report contents – indeed many scientists from countries like brazil and india have reported feeling marginalised in the face of a ‘core set’ of dominant (usually western) experts (kandlikar & sagar 1999; lahsen 2004). and participating scientists may not always be trusted by their own governments, who may be wary of their co-option into styles of thinking which are not conducive to the defence of particular normative commitments or national interests (lahsen 2007; fogel 2004). lahsen’s (2007) account ends by speculating that the distrustful deconstruction of ipcc science as a vector of hegemonic political power is “likely to surface and shape global environmental politics more” if countries like brazil, china and india encounter growing pressure to make binding commitments to emissions reductions. she also notes that scientific controversies have not driven or featured in brazilian debates about climate science and politics thus far. although the deconstruction of evidential claims often extends as far as such 2 authors are selected by working group chairs from lists of nominations prepared mostly by governments, but also by non-governmental observer organisations. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 101 claims challenge powerful and easily identifiable economic and political interests (lahsen 2005; oreskes & conway 2010), moments of scientific controversy can also bring to light deeper questions about trust, authority, and the complicated intertwining of scientific knowledge and political action (jasanoff 2004; whatmore 2009). in short, controversies can lay bare the geographies of scientific credibility. in the rest of this paper, i want to hone in on indian responses to an error which was identified in the 2007 ipcc report. i’ll draw on my own interviews with indian scientists, policymakers, journalists and environmental campaigners, alongside documentary sources and media presentations of the controversy, to explore how the event re-animated a history of epistemic contestation around climate change. i’ll also seek to draw out some insights into the symbolic and performative politics of representation and participation in the ipcc process, before concluding with a look at subsequent attempts to reform the ipcc process and to regain lost credibility. ‘glaciergate’ in 2007, the ipcc report on climate change impacts and adaptation stated that “glaciers in the himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world, and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high” (ipcc 2007b: 493). this probabilistically hedged prediction caused a mixture of alarm, unease and puzzlement in scientific and political circles in india. a summary statement about glaciers decaying rapidly by the 2030s was removed from the summary of the wgii report following a comment from the government of india that “this is a very drastic conclusion. should have supporting evidence otherwise need [sic] to be deleted”. 3 the statement was removed from the wgii summary and did not appear in the overall synthesis summary. however, the underlying claim about glaciers disappearing by 2035 remained in the report, and the claim garnered much media attention on its publication. visual artists used the warning to frame creative efforts at generating awareness of the risks posed by climate change. john kerry, then the us senate foreign relations committee chairman, argued in a 2009 speech that the rapidly melting glaciers risked inflaming military tensions on the india-pakistan border, with environmental change potentially undoing the recent diplomatic gains that had been made in the perennial border conflict 4 . around the same time as kerry’s speech, the indian environment minister jairam ramesh set about trying to settle the unease surrounding the 2035 claim. he had picked up on glaciologists’ uncertainty about the credibility of the claim, and commissioned a review of existing indian studies of the himalayan glaciers. the review reported a mixed picture of melting and advancing glaciers, and argued that no trend could be reliably attributed to anthropogenic climate change (raina 2009). when this government review was reported on new delhi television, ipcc chair rajendra pachauri was invited to comment on the challenge posed to the ipcc claims about rapidly melting glaciers. pachauri was dismissive, labelling the study “voodoo science”, and calling into question its procedural rigour and scientific credibility. in a later newspaper interview, pachauri described the indian 3 wgii summary for policymakers, government and expert review of second order draft, august 2006. 4 hindustan times, kerry warns of escalation in indo-pak tension due to climatic changes. 17 june 2009. mahony, the ipcc and the geographies of credibility 102 government as “arrogant” to question the link between climate change and rapidly melting glaciers. 5 pachauri’s response betrays an unwillingness to seriously engage with knowledge claims which run counter to those assessed, accredited and authorised by the ipcc process. the absence of the conventional vanguards of scientific credibility – peer review and what pachauri called “scientific citations” – enabled pachauri to dismiss the report as politically motivated, even though he reported being unclear as to what the minister’s motivations were 6 . pachauri dismissed media statements by the indian report’s author as being reminiscent of “schoolboy science” and “climate change deniers”. for pachauri the sole practical resolution to this credibility shortfall was the institutional mechanisms of scientific quality control which could cleanse these new claims of their political overtones and questionable epistemic underpinnings. pachauri’s strident boundary work between credible and disreputable science would come back to haunt the ipcc hierarchy, as it emerged that the original 2035 claim had itself been based on some rather questionable, non-peer-reviewed sources, including a magazine interview with a glaciologist in 1999 (for a detailed analysis of the genealogy of the error, see banerjee & collins 2010). as more errors were discovered in the 2007 report, including one concerning the percentage of the netherlands lying below sea-level, the dutch environmental assessment agency (pbl) was commissioned by the dutch government to conduct a review of the wgii assessment. an over-reliance on non-peer-reviewed ‘grey literature’ was one point of critique, alongside the occasional opacity of expert judgement and hard-to-trace referencing (pbl 2010; see also hajer 2012). in the netherlands, anxieties in the political community about the credibility of ipcc assessments was dealt with both through forensic examination of the texts, and through the enactment of deliberative spaces in which dialogue between climate scientists, ‘sceptics’ and knowledge users could be enacted, such as weblogs and radio features. maarten hajer (2012) reports how the activities of the pbl in assessing the ipcc assessment drew ire from a large section of the climate science community who were wary of possible damage to the broader credibility of the ipcc. if the ipcc reports were to be so publicly poked and prodded for errors, then the general credibility of the ipcc as a producer of reliably metonymic statements about climate change could be thrown into doubt. the pbl, led by hajer, countered that institutions like the ipcc needed to recognise that authority is constructed in modern, mediatised societies through communicative, rather than just epistemic, acts (hajer 2009). as such, it was only through public performances of deliberation, for example between a climate scientist and a famous sceptic on a public website, that authority could be restored. but as jasanoff (2005) has made clear, the cultural practices by which knowledge is rendered as authoritative and reliable in the public sphere vary greatly across different countries. let us then turn back to india, where responses to the unearthing of the himalaya error were very different to those in the netherlands. what is particularly interesting is how the idea of the ipcc representing “western science” was locally mobilised in this moment of controversy. challenges to the so-called “western science” of climate change have a long history in indian environmental politics (e.g. agarwal & narain, 1991; agarwal, sharma, & chopra, 1982; parashar et al., 1996). epistemic contestation has most often taken place around claims 5 the guardian, india “arrogant” to deny global warming link to melting glaciers, 9 november 2009. 6 prominent environmental campaigner sunita narain also expressed uncertainty about the minister’s motivations – “the report [will] create a lot of confusion…i am not sure what jairam is doing” (ibid.). history of meteorology 6 (2014) 103 about india’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. challenges have been made both to the accuracy of emissions estimates, and to the moral politics of discounting the historical contributions of western nations to global emissions in efforts to divide-up the responsibility for cuts. as in brazil (lahsen 2007), “western science” and institutions like the ipcc have been read as vectors of hegemonic power, with indian politicians and scientists often suspicious of the political motivations underpinning certain ways of framing and narrating the science of climate change (kandlikar & sagar 1999; biermann 2001). jairam ramesh, the environment minister from 2009 to 2011, traded on these suspicions in his response to the ipcc glacier controversy. in telling the guardian that he was prepared to take on “the doomsday scenarios of al gore and the ipcc”, he related that his “concern is that this comes from western scientists” 7 . in november 2009, the hindustan times reported that “for the first time, the indian government has challenged research that says global warming has hastened the melting of himalayan glaciers” 8 . a few months later, another report paraphrased ramesh as saying that “the western countries”, ramesh felt, “used the ipcc report to pressurise india to come on board to accept mitigation targets, which was successfully rejected” 9 . in a foreword to an assessment report of the new indian network for climate change assessment, dubbed by some an “indian ipcc” (see mahony 2014), ramesh argued for the development of “indigenous capacity” in climate change measurement and modelling. he stated that “[w]e should not be dependent on external studies to tell us for example about the impact of climate change on our glaciers, on our monsoons, and indeed even on sea level rise. indeed, recent evidence suggests the ‘scientific consensus’ on many of these is debatable” (incca 2010). at a launch of a government study of future indian greenhouse gas emissions, ramesh likewise remarked that “[w]e can no longer depend on derived science from the west” 10 . it is not necessary to spend too much time considering whether the ipcc can be accurately characterised as “western”. such broad-brush occidentalism can never do justice to the complex geographies of climate change knowledge production, but it is important to point out that certain framings and narrations of climate change which can be found within ipcc reports reflect situated and contingent ways of framing the issue, which may not always be capable of global acceptance. for example, fogel (2004; 2005) illustrates how the persistent presentation in successive ipcc reports of forest areas in the global south as ‘empty spaces’ ripe for the sequestration of biotic carbon has helped legitimate forestry projects which prioritise the offsetting of distant greenhouse gas emissions over the needs and desires of local residents. scientific framings of such forests as exploitable resources erase local histories and politics, leading many politicians, scientists and activists in the global south to grow sceptical of the politico-epistemic entanglings of ipcc assessments of mitigation strategies. the persistent use of the notion of “western science” as a discursive resource or leitmotif which periodically animates the politics of science in such debates raises questions about the geographies of scientific credibility. sense cannot be made of this discourse without reference to the legacy of western colonialism and its socioeconomic and environmental consequences. in the indian context specifically, we cannot ignore the legacy of a political aesthetics of national autonomy which guided much preand post-independence 7 the guardian, india “arrogant” to deny global warming link to melting glaciers, 9 november 2009. 8 hindustan times, government quells panic over himalayan glacial melt. 10 november 2009. 9 hindustan times, won’t let pachauri down in ipcc: govt., 16 march 2010. 10 scidev.net, home-grown climate models ‘set india’s record straight’, 8 september 2009. on the discursive co-production of epistemic and political sovereignty in indian climate politics, see author (2014). mahony, the ipcc and the geographies of credibility 104 political thought and which played into nehruvian policies of industrial import substitution and science-led developmentalism in the post-independence era (zachariah 2005). however, it is also highly significant that 2009 was a year in which momentum was supposedly building for a new global deal on emissions reductions at the copenhagen climate talks. as lahsen (2007) predicted, the politics of science was re-animated by heightened expectations of an international political deal on mitigation. at the time of the controversy, jairam ramesh was walking a political tightrope between seeking to engage proactively with the climate talks and key actors like the us, and seeking not to alienate a domestic political audience opposed to binding emissions cuts and sensitive to the erosion of national political sovereignty (dubash 2013; atteridge et al. 2012). by playing on a discourse of contested ‘western science’, ramesh could tap into this demand for sovereignty and autonomy, for a defence of the national interest, even as he edged closer to an international agreement on climate change mitigation. the arguments about western science being a political instrument stand in a complicated relationship to the question of participation in the ipcc process. participation by indian experts has always been relatively low (kandlikar & sagar 1999; ho-lem et al. 2011), and participating authors have reported feeling marginalised in the report-writing process, both in interviews with frank biermann in the late 1990s (biermann 2001) and in my own interviews in 2012, in the aftermath of the ‘glaciergate’ controversy. however, contra biermann, there were also indian authors who felt surprisingly empowered by the ar4 process, able to contribute on equal terms to the framing of report chapters and the broader setting of the terms of the debate. nonetheless, this all serves to complicate any instrumental linking of participation to trust, credibility and acceptance. the chapter which featured the 2035 melting glaciers claim had an indian glaciologist as a coordinating lead author, alongside colleagues from the philippines, japan and china. yet the decidedly non-western make-up of the author team didn’t stop the political and media presentation of their report as something emanating from outside, from the “west”. the complications of these geographies of representation and credibility are made all the plainer when we consider the positionality of rajendra pachauri, the indian chair of the ipcc, in this controversy. a formerly prominent indian policymaker with involvement in climate change negotiations told me in an interview that “pachauri is not very well received in india” among government actors, due to what he called “several manipulations”. my respondent stated that “he [i.e. pachauri] wrote” the 2035 claim. the implication was that pachauri had badly (and personally) betrayed the national interest. but when asked whether pachauri should step-down, my respondent argued that the ipcc is an international body, and that it is important to have an indian voice in such a prominent position. here we can see echoes of lahsen’s (2007) argument that trust in individuals (cf. shapin 1995) is not neatly determined by nationality, particularly in the case of government actors and their scientific compatriots. despite pachauri seeking to staunchly defend the territory of a trans-national, autonomous science, he also played upon his own subjectivity. in seeking to link the tirade of criticism to which he was subject in late 2009 to powerful corporate interests, he told the hindustan times that “i am the easiest target as i represent the poor and the most vulnerable” 11 . in the end, the indian government threw its weight behind pachauri, with jairam ramesh telling parliament in march 2010 that he had “full confidence” 11 hindustan times, did ‘himalayan blunder’ help teri get lucrative grants? 25 january 2010. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 105 in the “indian chairperson” of the ipcc, despite the government’s objections to the glacier claim being, as he put it, “upheld … we were vindicated” 12 . re-gaining it – institutional reform and cosmopolitan expertise so how might this incident inform our understandings of the geographies of credibility in the case of the ipcc? for one, it forces us to recognise the complexities and ambiguities of participation and representation. even though the ipcc associates authors with their home countries when listing and counting participants, there is an ambiguity about who or what is being represented by these actors (see also scoones 2009). in an age of multiple, fluid and sometimes contradictory identities (ellison 1997; appiah 2005), any claim that the passport held by an author can lend their ideas the same kind of free mobility enjoyed by their bodies is sure to be problematic. this notion of fluid, cosmopolitan identities can perhaps also be used to make sense of the label of “western science”, strategically applied here to a body of epistemic and normative claims whose authority is often deferred to, but whose credibility is often challenged as a science suited to certain national concerns. theodore porter (1995) argues that numbers and quantification have been key means of attaining credibility across space – of producing mobile, credible knowledge. since the climate science controversies of 2009-10, numbers have increasingly been employed to represent not just the state of the climate, but the degree of relevant agreement within the scientific community. numbers like “97%” (cook et al. 2013) have been used to capture the extent of scientific consensus. to paraphrase porter, such numbers are hoped to unite a sceptical and divided polity – particularly those of the us and australia – around a seemingly objective portrayal of scientific unanimity (cf. bray 2010). yet similarly intentioned statements about the sheer numbers of geographically diverse participants in the ipcc process are not by themselves solutions to the problem of global credibility, owing to the complexities i outline above. neither is a simple procedural fix, which has been the dominant institutional response to the controversies of 2009 and 2010. in march 2010 the interacademy council (iac) – an international organisation of national science academies – was commissioned by unep to conduct a formal review of ipcc processes and procedures (see iac 2010, 75). although stating that “the ipcc assessment process has been successful overall” (ibid., xii), the iac report, published on 1 st september 2010, made a series of recommendations designed to improve the assessment process. these included:  the establishment of an elected executive committee;  the election of an executive director to head the secretariat;  extra vigilance by review editors to ensure that review comments are adequately considered, and the reflection of any controversy in the final report;  a more targeted process for responding to reviews, including a more appropriate division of labour between review editors and chapter authors;  the use of the qualitative level-of-understanding scale in spms and technical summaries;  the use of quantitative probability scales only where the evidence allows it;  the enactment of a comprehensive communications strategy which could help avoid public statements “perceived as advocating specific climate policies” (ibid., 5); and 12 times of india, government to fight attempt to unseat pachauri, 16 march 2010. mahony, the ipcc and the geographies of credibility 106  the adoption of a ‘rigorous’ conflict of interest policy covering the ipcc leadership, authors, review editors and technical support staff. the recommendations of the iac were broadly accepted (see ipcc 2010), and work is ongoing within the organisation to formally enact the iac suggestions. however, the mandate, questions and recommendations of the iac were restricted to a familiar instrumentalism which positions ‘sound science’ as separate from, but determinate of, good public policy (demeritt 2006). to paraphrase shapin (1995), practical solutions to the problem of credibility were sought through minor institutional reforms. this defence of the ‘science for policy’ status quo (hajer 2012) highlights the strong investment made by both the scientific and diplomatic community in the structure and organisation of this kind of assessment process, and thus the dominant problem framings to which it has given rise. more fundamental questions – like the scalar politics of knowledge-making, epistemic pluralism and the need for institutional spaces geared towards more resolutely deliberative or agonistic forms of engagement with climate change (machin 2013) – were conspicuously absent from the iac agenda. although increased transparency and accountability were recognised as a “growing obligation” (iac 2010, vi; beck 2012), this was the only real concession to the changes in the nature of political deliberation in the quarter-century since the ipcc’s establishment. the diversification since 1988 of the deliberative spaces in which climate change is constructed and contested as a governance problem was not recognised by the iac review (stevenson & dryzek 2012). new communications guidelines, developed in lieu of the iac recommendations, have renewed the commitment of the ipcc to communicating with its “primary audience” of national governments, with a clear firewall enacted between the ipcc and broader global publics. although other assessments like the international assessment of agricultural knowledge, science and technology for development (iaastd) have attempted to enact deliberative spaces responsive to new, distributed systems of public deliberation (scoones 2009), the ipcc clings to a conventional understanding of political representation and delegation, with publics defined as those who are tied to and contained by a sovereign nation-state (see brown 2009). even before the staggered publication of ar5 began, a public debate was enacted on the future of the ipcc as an organisation. on blogs and in media interviews, participating scientists wondered whether the personal and institutional costs to the scientific community of producing ipcc assessments were worth the incremental changes in consensus knowledge which they represented 13 . the ipcc itself solicited comments from national governments on its own future, with suggestions ranging from a continuation of business-as-usual, through the provision of more frequent ‘special reports’, to the establishment of a public website where assessments could be updated in ‘real time’, without the expansive review process 14 . the netherlands supported thoroughgoing changes of the latter variety, whereas brazil and india did not contribute suggestions. most governments promoted closer interaction between the scientific and political communities in order to generate more relevant, timely assessments of topics of political interest. however, the fate of the panel’s credibility, in the eyes of many contributors, rests on the continued policing of the boundary between ‘policy relevant’ and ‘policy prescriptive’ science. a task group comprised of representatives from 44 governments and the european union was thus set up in october 2013 to explore the future 13 e.g. scientific american, does the ipcc need to change? 7 october 2013. 14 ‘the future of the ipcc: collated comments from governments’. document prepared for the 37 th session of the ipcc, 14-18 october 2013. history of meteorology 6 (2014) 107 of ipcc products and processes, and to look at ways to further the participation of developing country scientists. this process, along with the preceding iac review and recommendations, points to a strong governmental commitment to the epistemic constitutionalism which positions the ipcc as the most important arbiter of credible, politically-relevant scientific advice on climate change (miller 2009). credibility, in this view, is to be established through social relations which position scientists and government representatives in close contact, but with a clear firewall between acts of description and prescription. however, i have suggested in this article that the social relations of climate change knowledge-making render credibility a complicated compound of scientific and political concerns. we of course need to ask how we can design assessments capable of embracing knowledge needs at multiple scales and in multiple sectors of human 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to give up our naval and merchant fleet, but they cannot stop us from rehabilitating it again and earning recognition for it through a great cultural act. an oceanographic expedition is thus equally in the interests of germany and german science.” -fritz spiess1 introduction in 1925, the naval research and survey ship meteor left germany on a two-year mission. though owned by the german navy, led by naval captain fritz spiess, and crewed by naval personnel, meteor was not a traditional warship, and its mission was not in line with traditional naval strategy. instead of weapons, meteor carried the tools of a team of scientists who would, with their naval colleagues, spend the next two years crisscrossing the atlantic ocean in the name of atmospheric and oceanographic science. at the same time, it served other purposes—individual, institutional, and political. chief among these was a dedication to german nationalism in the wake of the country’s devastating great war loss. 1 spiess, the meteor expedition: scientific results of the german atlantic expedition, 1925-1927, trans. ed. william j. emery (new delhi: amerind publishing co., 1985), 10-11. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 125 the popular tendency is often to portray scientists—and for scientists to portray themselves—as either naively surprised by their work’s geopolitical ramifications or uneasily forced to compromise to gain patronage, even if scholars recognize these tropes as rationalizations.2 in the usual chronology, the emergence of this relationship in the earth sciences is sited in the twentieth century’s middle decades, when, as matthew henry has noted, “cold war funding meant the emergence of new roles for scientists as agents of foreign policy, and the framing of their science as a symbol of a politically loaded technological superiority.” in the case of new zealand, henry instead sites that shift earlier, at the interwar intersection of meteorology and political power.3 an examination of the meteor expedition supports this earlier placement.4 the expedition was a joint project of the reichsmarine—the weimar-era germany navy—and a coalition of scientists and their supporters. planners from both these groups embraced nationalist goals from the expedition’s very conception. by cooperating to do science on, under, and above the atlantic, they cooperated to regain prestige both for their constituent organizations and individuals, and for their nation on the world stage, goals that were reflected in every facet of the expedition—its science, its logistics, and its public relations. their meteorological and oceanographic endeavors would lay symbolic claim to the atlantic ocean and the airspace above it, while participating in neocolonial efforts to replace the empire denied them after the war. as sheila jasanoff and other scholars have noted, “science and technology can be fruitfully studied as social practices geared to the establishment of varied kinds of structure and authority.”5 the meteor expedition’s outcome thus represent a co-production of scientific knowledge of the ocean and the atmosphere and of a data-based german power over them, a metaphorical seizure of territory that would position german scientists as inheritors of a tradition of expeditionary science and place germany back amongst the great powers scientifically. at the same time, this scientific 2 chandra mukerji has examined this murky compromise between patronage and control over research in the case of oceanographers and the united states government in a fragile power: scientists and the state (princeton, n.j. : princeton university press, 1989). 3 henry, “australasian airspace: meteorology, and the practical geopolitics, of australasian airspace, 1935-1940,” ch 12 in climate, science, and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, ed. james beattie, emily o’gorman, and matthew henry, 233-250 (new york: palgrave mcmillan, 2014), 236. 4 arguably scientists had always been agents of foreign policy, at least in the expeditionary sciences. in his meteorological and oceanographic projects in the 1840s and 1850s, us navy lieutenant matthew fontaine maury certainly pursued linked scientific and political goals, though in a period where “scientist” was a less well-defined category. the british challenger expedition in the 1870s, jointly sponsored by the royal society of london and the royal navy, was clearly an imperial project. penelope k. hardy, “every ship a floating observatory: matthew fontaine maury and the acquisition of knowledge at sea,” ch 1 in soundings and crossings: doing science at sea 1800-1970, ed. katharine anderson and helen m. rozwadowski, 17-48 (sagamore beach, ma: science history publications/watson publishing international) and hardy, “where science meets the sea: research vessels and the construction of knowledge in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries,” (phd diss., johns hopkins university, 2017). 5 jasanoff, “ordering knowledge, ordering society,” ch 2 in states of knowledge: the co-production of science and social order, ed. jasanoff, 13-45 (london: routledge, 2004), 17. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 126 knowledge would lay the groundwork for the german military resurgence that would soon follow. background opportunities for scientists—and especially europeans—to do science at sea were greatly curtailed during the great war. this limitation was caused both by the problem of safety in an environment of unrestricted submarine warfare and by the massive redirection of resources— both materiel and personnel—required by the participating countries’ war efforts. in germany, following a model which would become standard for many nations later in the century, the navy enlisted the help of scientists to study conditions german warships and submarines were likely to encounter.6 among these was alfred merz. before the war, merz had been a rising star in limnology, oceanography, and climatology, particularly interested in large-scale, ocean-atmosphere systems. he did graduate work in the adriatic, then rose through the ranks at the institut für meereskunde (ifm)—the institute for oceanography—in berlin, leading his students on field trips to local lakes and eventually the north sea and baltic, where he spent time developing instruments to measure temperature and current and dynamical methods to process the data. by 1915, he had developed a theoretical conception of tidal dynamics in the north sea that allowed him to turn the few known statistics on tidal heights into precise tidal charts for the area at the imperial navy’s behest, a task that occupied him until 1918. while this work remained useful to science, in that his results proved the validity of his methods, its benefit to the war effort was obvious and immediate. at the same time, he continued thermometrical work close to shore in an effort to better understand the surface interface between air and water. the relationship thus developed with the navy led to the post-war establishment of a working group involving the ifm, of which merz became director in 1921, and the deutsche seewarte—the german hydrographic office, sometimes called the naval observatory—in hamburg, to continue north sea tidal research.7 the navy’s own resources and personnel had obviously been thoroughly enmeshed in the war effort. in its aftermath the service suffered both the actual losses of combat and those imposed by the punitive restrictions of the treaty of versailles. these losses stung, and they were aggravated in the early 1920s by germany’s ongoing economic woes and by the loss of 6 for the relationship between the us navy and oceanographers, see gary e. weir, an ocean in common: american naval officers, scientists, and the ocean environment (college station: texas a & m university press, 2001). see also mukerji, fragile power. 7 norbert krebs, “alfred merz [obituary],” geographische zeitschrift, 32. jahrg. 1. h. (1926): 1-6; reinhard hoheisel-huxmann, die deutsche atlantische expedition 1925-1927: planung und verlauf (hamburg: convent verlag, 2007), 38. on the deutsche seewarte, see heinrich walle, though he ignores the shifts between military and civilian control during the world wars, “die deutsche seewarte,” marine-forum: ausgabe a: offizielles organ der marine-offizier-vereinigung 10 (2004): 26-28. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 127 political prestige under the new, republican government for a service whose officers had been solidly monarchist.8 thanks in part to the large role naval troops had played in and the reactions of naval leadership to both the 1918 revolution that brought the weimar government to power and the 1920 kapp putsch which attempted to overthrow it, public and government confidence in the navy remained low.9 because the german peace delegation had considered renouncing all warships before the navy took things into its own hands and scuttled most of them at skapa flow, historian keith bird has argued that the versailles treaty’s severe restrictions may have paradoxically “saved the german navy from extinction.”10 by 1920, “[i]n government and civilian circles, a pronounced lack of faith in the navy’s ability to perform even the simplest task was quite widespread.”11 the treaty restrictions severely limited the numbers and classes of ships the navy could operate, which orphaned some unfinished new construction in the slips. such was the fate of new construction gunboat “c”, begun during the war but left unfinished, and now, because of the versailles quotas, unfinishable as a warship. a quick-thinking naval hydrographer suggested commissioning it instead as a survey and research vessel, and the hull—moved hastily from the forfeited port of gdańsk to kiel—was finished accordingly, though much interior work was left to complete.12 at heart, though, the navy was still working strategically to counter the various indignities of versailles. though publically they appeared only to be shuffling survey ships— they would complete and keep the new vessel in place of an older one allowed under versailles—they consciously kept open the possibility of arming it in future. many within the navy were also suggesting a large-scale trip abroad, to show the flag in as many ports as possible and thus project the image of a navy—and nation—that still mattered on the world stage. the deutsche pazifische expedition with this desire in mind, oceanographer gerhard schott at the deutsche seewarte drafted a proposal for an expedition to the pacific, aimed mainly at the navy’s flag-showing requirement. science was a secondary concern; the proposed trip would fill gaps left in the observational record by earlier voyages. in its broad, observational approach and imperial ambitions, the planned voyage would thus have resembled that of the british hms challenger fifty years earlier. the navy asked albrecht penck, merz’s mentor and his superior at the ifm, to comment on schott’s proposal and perhaps suggest an alternative. penck delegated the task to merz. 8 keith w. bird, weimar, the german naval officer corps and the rise of national socialism (amsterdam: b. r. grüner, 1977), especially 141. 9 bird, weimar, 9-10; 67-70. 10 bird, weimar, 65. 11 bird, weimar, 112. 12 “die deutsche atlantische expedition auf dem vermessungsund forschungsschiff “meteor”: i. bericht,” zeitschrift der gesellschaft für erdkunde zu berlin, 5/6 (1926): 1. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 128 merz agreed with the navy’s concern for german visibility on the world stage, though he framed the problem through his own experience as a scientist.13 without funding, limited in their access to field sites thanks to the loss of colonies, and shunned from participation in international scientific endeavors, merz warned that german scientists would appear to be out of touch with first-rate science, an image he feared would increasingly become reality as the lack of research opportunities took its toll.14 addressing a major, interdisciplinary scientific problem on a global scale would prove germans’ ability to do good science and do so in a very public way. the global ocean provided just such a problem, and was itself a field site from which germany could not be excluded. merz suggested a three-year program of observations organized around a series of inter-related questions which grew from his own scientific interests, including the origin of oceans and continents, the general circulation of water in the oceans and of air in the atmosphere, a better understanding of ocean tides, a clearer picture of the ocean’s bottom contours and of benthic tectonic activity, and a better understanding of the makeup of seawater. the navy liked merz’s plan—though this preference may have laid the seeds for later contention between the ifm and seewarte—and commenced planning. of primary concern was the vast distances involved; the ship would need to be able to cruise between eight and nine thousand nautical miles before refueling. as currently configured, the former gunship “c”—now the research and survey ship meteor—could not carry enough coal to fire its boilers over such distances. pacific coaling stations were few and far between, so a naval shipyard was tasked with considering meteor’s conversion to oil-fired boilers to handle the great distances involved. unfortunately, such a change—exchanging boilers for diesel engine, tightening the coal bunkers to instead hold oil, and changing the rig on the auxiliary sails—would increase the still-ongoing construction costs by twenty percent, or three million extra marks. the hard-pressed post-war navy simply could not manage the sum, and the weimar government did not share merz’s and the navy’s sense of urgency for the task, given everything else left to rebuild in the war’s wake. the plan for a grand “deutsche pazifische expedition” was dropped. the notgemeinschaft der deutschen wissenschaft in january 1924, merz attended a meeting of the notgemeinschaft der deutschen wissenschaft—the emergency committee for german science—chaired by prussian minister of culture friedrich schmidt-ott. the notgemeinschaft was a non-governmental organization with 13 this account of pacific expedition plan relies on hoheisel-huxmann, deutsche atlantische expedition, 7-13. 14 on the postwar exclusion of german scientists from international scientific efforts, see daniel kevles, “‘into hostile political camps’: the reorganisation of international science in world war i,” isis 62 (1971): 47-60. on the impact of the loss of colonial field sites for german climatology, see philipp lehmann’s contribution to this issue: “losing the field: franz thorbecke and (post)colonial climatology in germany,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 145–158. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 129 a commitment to fund german science, formed in the war’s immediate aftermath by leading scientists of the prussian academy of scientists who shared merz’s fear that germany was in danger of falling from the ranks of first-rate scientific powers. schmidt-ott echoed that fear, complaining that while he received many requests for support, they did not include any “really visionary ones.” merz, no doubt disheartened by the failure of the proposed pacific expedition, insisted such ideas existed, but scientists held no hope of getting them financed. when schmidtott assured him funds could be found for the proper project, merz pitched a version of the proposal he had offered to the navy.15 since the original project had foundered on the immense distances of the pacific, the new proposal stayed in the atlantic, a region better known but more easily reachable. a thorough study with a close network of stations could build on the long-term studies already accomplished and on merz’s own work on large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation. the voyage could incorporate the work of other leading scientists, such as alfred wegener’s meteorology and fritz haber’s chemistry, and these three areas would contribute to understanding the biology of the atlantic. the navy would no doubt be interested in pursuing hydrographical investigations, since they still wanted an excuse to send their new survey ship abroad, making the proposed expedition a broad effort to renew german relevance on almost every scientific front. indeed, merz’s proposal used the language of conquest. the atlantic, he said, was “a free field for exploration” to which germany “must set about laying claim.”16 schmidt-ott was hooked, and asked merz to write a formal proposal.17 merz, worried after the earlier failure of earning a reputation with the navy as a “maker of empty projects,” first approached personal contacts in the navy seeking details of the ship’s capabilities and a frank appraisal of the plan’s likelihood to gain the support of naval leadership. with their encouragement, merz worked up a preliminary proposal.18 the prospect of sharing costs made the proposal more palatable to both navy and notgemeinschaft. over the next several months, they discussed expedition logistics, focusing largely on whether to make one long voyage or several short ones, with time at home in between. advocates for the latter hoped time in between would allow not only processing of results but also refinement of methods and a redirection of efforts and focus based on those results. (they also feared participants’ performance would decline on a long duration mission.) merz, though, 15 “abschrift der aufzeichnungen von prof.dr. a. merz über die verhandlungen bei der planlegung der deutschen atlantischen expedition,” n167-19, auftrag nr. 729, bundesarchiv-militärarchiv, freiburg im breisgau, germany (hereafter bmf). 16 spiess, meteor expedition, 7. german planning was co-incident with french meteorological voyages on the training ship jacques cartier and a british effort to establish a global network of ship-based meteorological observations. these no doubt influenced the german perception of a scramble for the atlantic. katharine anderson, “marine meteorology: observing regimes and global visions, 1918-1939,” soundings and crossings, 213-244. 17 “abschrift der aufzeichnungen,” n167-19, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. 18 “abschrift der aufzeichnungen,” n167-19, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 130 pressed consistently for one, unbroken trip, fearing—probably rightly—that if they once returned home, the funds for future legs would evaporate.19 he was eventually successful. staffing the voyage required extensive discussion, tied obviously to the planning of the research agenda but also to jockeying between the institutions contributing plans and expertise to the voyage. in addition to the notgemeinschaft, merz’s ifm, the participating scientists’ universities, and the navy, this included the deutsche seewarte, which following the war had been removed from navy control and assigned to the ministry of transportation. erich von drygalski, the scientist who had led the german south polar expedition on the gauss in the late 1880s and was now associated with the academy of science and the geographical society, was also invited to participate. hugo hergesell, who had developed methods for ocean-going meteorology aboard prince albert of monaco’s yachts twenty years earlier, joined to plan the expedition’s meteorology.20 as the meteor’s overhaul already included seven cabins for scientists, merz proposed a lead scientist, two hydrographers, two chemists, and two meteorologists. the ship’s doctor could double as an expedition biologist. the scientists would assist with sample collection, rather than restricting themselves to laboratory work, and naval personnel would train as lab assistants. merz pushed for the selection of young, up-and-coming scientists who could be future leaders in their fields. though the group debated inclusion of various sub-specialities, and these were tied to the coordination of specific scientific measurements and sampling in the work plan, the discussion was for the most part congenial. 21 merz was eventually confirmed as expedition leader and given final authority to choose personnel, though he sought the input of the others on the suitability of men in their respective fields.22 in addition to merz, four oceanographers, a biologist, a geologist, a chemist, and two meteorologists eventually embarked.23 making the meteor the meteor was 75 meters long, 4 meters in draft, and displaced 1200 tons. as originally planned, its middle deck would have bristled with side guns between superstructure and stern. their absence left room to accommodate the scientific staff. the new “residential deck” contained nine scientific staterooms, a laboratory, and a drafting room.24 the ship was furnished with “beautiful functional interior decor done in the most beautiful wood.” it was decorated with 19 “abschrift der aufzeichnungen,” n167-19, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. 20 hardy, “where science meets the sea.” 21 “abschrift der aufzeichnungen,” n167-19, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. 22 “abschrift der aufzeichnungen,” n167-19, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. 23“die deutsche atlantische expedition auf dem vermessungsund forschungsschiff “meteor”: i. bericht,” zeitschrift der gesellschaft für erdkunde zu berlin, 5/6 (1926): 4. 24 “die deutsche atlantische expedition . . . i. bericht,” 6-7. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 131 “[a]ttractive items,” including a piano and gramophone. shipbuilders generally avoid wood on modern warships for fire safety reasons, but it was included here not just for the comfort of the scientists or to make the space esthetically pleasing over the cruise’s long duration, but also because of the ship’s ulterior mission, to show german pride abroad. the tastefully appointed interior allowed them to “exhibit this decor to the outside world” when officials and scientists of recently adversarial nations as well as german expatriates toured the ship in foreign ports. the efficacy of keeping up such appearances was later clear when “[i]n the foreign press our laboratory was termed ‘a wonder of a floating laboratory.’”25 that wondrous laboratory, which had been “furnished according to the wishes of the individual scientists” provided chemical, biological, and geological workstations, as well as accommodations for two laboratory technicians. each workstation was provided with fresh and salt water and electrical power, and the lab was well equipped with a chemical stove with fume extraction, three electrical centrifuges, microscopes—including a polarizing microscope, gas analysis equipment, geological elutriation apparatus, and a plethora of storage cabinets, racks, and containers. the nearby drafting room provided work stations for two oceanographers equipped for titration, room for the meteorological equipment, and a drafting and calculating table for cartographic and calculating work. this room also housed read-outs for the remote measuring anemometer, air thermometer, and water thermometer. a comprehensive map file, scientific expedition library, and a card file of known oceanographic data completed the equipment. 26 on the lower deck, a dark room was equipped to handle both still and cinematographic film, which would be used to study the flight of sea birds in slow motion, and also contained a recording apparatus for stereographic wave studies.27 as presented later in spiess’s official account, the expedition was a curious mix of rigor and resourcefulness. the participating institutions collaborated to procure instruments. much of the naval equipment had come from an old cruiser, but this was largely obsolete and required supplementation or modernization. the navy procured the necessary ropes and cables, while oceanographic gear was arranged through the ifm. the seewarte and the observatory in lindenberg provided or procured meteorological equipment, the kaiser-wilhelm institute chemical equipment, and the state zoological museum in hamburg biological equipment. instruments developed for previous expeditions were improved, and the expedition members often developed instruments in their areas of expertise, a task no doubt helped by the long lead time and relatively early identification of team members.28 the larger equipment was manufactured ashore, typically by corporate—when possible german—makers. but the captain stressed their ability to improvise and make do. on a mission of such length and duration, and with resupply and repair limited by the financial resources of their sponsors, the meteor 25 spiess, meteor expedition, 31-32. 26 “die deutsche atlantische expedition . . . i. bericht,” 6-7. 27 “die deutsche atlantische expedition . . . i. bericht,” 6-7. 28 spiess, meteor expedition, 28. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 132 personnel had to necessarily be self-sufficient. the ship carried its own machine shop for major repairs; a precision mechanical workshop for instrument crafting and repair was added for the expedition.29 a “well-trained precision mechanic” accompanied the expedition and was “responsible for maintenance of all scientific equipment and instruments.”30 a glassblowing lamp allowed repair of glass apparatus and the manufacture of new instruments, such as a special inspection tube for measuring water visibility depth from a small boat.31 the upper deck held three motor lifeboats, four sounding machines of various types, a meteorological kite winch, and special anchoring equipment designed to hold the ship fast in deeper water than ever attempted. in addition to the kites, the ship could launch balloons, filled from hydrogen cylinders carried aboard, which could in turn be refilled with hydrogen electrolyzed from seawater.32 while no longer a gunboat, the ship carried a “wind gun,” designed to shoot smoke cartridges as high as 7500 m altitude, allowing observation of wind speed and direction when clouds made tracking pilot balloons impossible. the ship also carried small arms and harpoons, which were later used from a small boat in an attempt to catch a whale; at this the unpracticed crewmembers had no success.33 if meteor’s outfitting reflected the balancing act the navy was playing with the requirements of versailles, it demonstrated as well the commercialization and corporatization of science in the first decades of the twentieth century. where the earlier expeditions’ instruments had borne the names of individual designers, meteor’s instruments often came from commercial makers and bore company names. these were, whenever possible, germany companies. the photographic instruments and film were donated by the aktiengesellschaft für anilinfabrikation, better known as agfa.34 meteor carried two new echo-sounding devices. one was of completely german origin, developed by the kiel-based signalgesellschaft and thus named the signal sounder. the other was a product of the submarine signal corporation in boston, massachusetts, sold to the atlaswerke in bremen and renamed the atlas sounder.35 to back up and verify the echo sounders, meteor carried two line sounders: a thomson sounding machine, originally developed by lord kelvin in the 1870s, and a lucas machine, designed in the 1880s. meteor’s sampling lines used reversing thermometers and messengeroperated sampling gear that would not have appeared unfamiliar to earlier expeditions. merz’s home-grown tidal current meters, developed during his north sea work, were deployed 29 “die deutsche atlantische expedition . . . i. bericht,” 6-7. 30 spiess, meteor expedition, 23. 31 spiess, meteor expedition, 169; “die deutsche atlantische expedition auf dem vermessungsund forschungsschiff “meteor”: ii. bericht.” zeitschrift der gesellschaft für erdkunde zu berlin, 5/6 (1926): 211. 32 “abschrift der aufzeichnungen,” n167-19, auftrag nr. 729, bmf; spiess, meteor expedition, 67. 33 spiess, meteor expedition, 67, 155. 34 spiess, meteor expedition, 393. 35 sabine höhler, “depth records and ocean volumes: ocean profiling by sounding technology, 1850-1930,” history and technology 18, no. 2 (2002): 140. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 133 alongside their commercially-developed cousins.36 thus for both technological and budgetary reasons, they had, as spiess put it, “a strange combination of old and new on our ship. while on one side [it] had sailing arrangements and old model drive, on the other hand [it] had the most modern equipment on board: gyrocompass, radio direction finder, echo sounder—a mixture of the oldest and the latest.”37 assembling the expedition meteor was finally placed in commission in november 1924, officially the first new german naval vessel completed since the war, but ten years and nine months after construction had begun.38 this long-delayed completion allowed many physical changes to the ship as it was adapted and readapted for its evolving mission. alongside changes to the working and living accommodations, the propulsion systems evolved significantly. with the planned diesel conversion abandoned, the ship retained a coal-fired steam system supplemented by sail. in order to increase range, two of the four original boilers were removed, allowing enlarged coal bunkering capacity.39 a smaller, auxiliary boiler for in-port use would reduce coal consumption and allow downtime for main boiler maintenance. a diesel generator powered shipboard electrical systems to further reduce coal consumption. two meters added smokestack height improved exhaust gas flow as well as conditions on deck, where ash and flue gases sometimes interfered with the scientists’ work. propeller efficiency was improved. at the same time, the ship’s sailing rig was modified to a full-rigged forward mast with three square sails. when cruising range still fell short of requirements, a petty officer’s cabin was converted into an additional coal bunker, and storage space was found on deck for another 50 tons. meteor now carried 440 tons of coal, providing a theoretical steaming range of 6800 nm.40 the long lead time caused by the expedition’s shaky financial start allowed thorough preparation by scientists and naval personnel. merz and his students had assembled every previous hydrographic observation they could find into a comprehensive card file, as well as preparing current maps and salinity and temperature sections from known data. meanwhile, naval personnel received special training to allow them to undertake or assist with their own scientific assignments. ship’s officers were responsible for astronomical and geomagnetic work, photography and cinematography, and the measurement of electrical potential. ship’s personnel also operated the sonar equipment, rapidly becoming experts in the new technology. senior noncommissioned officers served as assistants and draftsmen for oceanographic work, chemistry, 36 krebs, “alfred merz,” 1-6. 37 spiess, meteor expedition, 63. 38 hoheisel-huxmann, deutsche atlantische expedition, 20. 39 “die deutsche atlantische expedition . . . i. bericht,” 9. 40 “die deutsche atlantische expedition . . . i. bericht,” 25-26. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 134 and meteorological kite and balloon handling.41 six non-scientist civilian employees also embarked, though their identities and roles are poorly recorded. they likely filled roles as assistants, mechanics, and “invisible technicians.”42 spiess reported consistent professional behavior and no strain between the various groups of personnel beyond that expected among any large number of human beings constrained to close quarters over an extended period. however, very little exists with which to check this claim. the meteor commission kept tight control on publications, reserving ownership of all output except the hydrographic products belonging to the navy.43 this was not unprecedented, but it meant this expedition did not spawn the flurry of unofficial accounts that followed the challenger expedition. the expedition suffered a major leadership challenge when, after the first leg of the journey, merz fell ill. he tried to remain on board to supervise the oceanographic work from his sickbed, but was soon returned to rio de janeiro, the nearest port, for treatment at the german hospital. the expedition proceeded with spiess in nominal command of both ship and science, until a telegram six weeks later informed them of merz’s death. the scientists apparently asked spiess to retain scientific leadership, a decision with which their backers in germany eventually concurred.44 it is unclear if this arrangement had been discussed in advance. despite merz’s history of illness, the commission had let him evaluate his own fitness for the long voyage; perhaps, whether because of this history or simply because travel at sea and to foreign ports involved certain risks even for the healthy, they had established a continuity plan for the mission.45 it is also possible that the scientists could come to no consensus allowing one of them to step into a superior position, so the naval officer who already commanded the ship seemed a compromise. either way, spiess appears to have been a good choice. though not a trained scientist, he had been involved in the planning from the beginning, and he understood the work and its goals. he conscientiously continued the scientific plan to the best of the ship’s ability, expressly considering merz’s original instructions whenever modifications had to be made. 41 “die deutsche atlantische expedition . . . i. bericht,” 7. 42 “die deutsche atlantische expedition . . . i. bericht,” 7. for invisible technicians, see steven shapin, “the invisible technician,” american scientist 77, no. 6 (1989): 554-563. 43 this policy is discussed in numerous places, among them albrecht penck to spiess, 9 october 1925, n167-16, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. a four-page document outlining the principles under which the expedition results would be published was drafted after discussion amongst the principals; “grundsätze für die aufbau und umfang des wissenschaftlichen expeditions-werkes der deutschen atlantischen expedition,” n167-19, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. 44 spiess reports being approached by hentschel and reger, the “two oldest scientists,” spiess, meteor expedition, 130. the committee’s endorsement was conveyed by letter; penck to spiess, 9 october 1925, n167-16, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. penck also made sure the navy endorsed the plan; penck to spiess, 13 october 1925, n167-16, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. 45 on merz making the fitness decision, “abschrift der aufzeichnungen,” n167-19, auftrag nr. 729, bmf. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 135 doing science at sea much of the scientific work of the expedition was organized around stations, as had become the standard for oceanographic work. these 300 sampling points were arranged along fourteen latitudinal cross-sections of the atlantic, called “profiles,” ranging from about 20⁰n to below 60⁰s. at the end of each profile, the ship would visit ports along the south american and african coasts, allowing time for replenishment and repair, but also crew leave, scientific expeditions ashore, visits with local scientific and political connections, and other activities. the profiles had been planned according to expected climatic conditions over the course of the twoyear expedition, visiting the furthest southern latitudes, for instance, during the southern hemispheric summer, and accounting for seasonal variations in the trade winds elsewhere. echo sounding and some surface and meteorological work continued at and between stations. a typical station involved lowering numerous thermometers and sample bottles via a large winch on the aft deck; another winch forward was available as backup. each carried 8000 m of aluminum-bronze stranded wire rope, with a high tensile strength and an 830-kg breaking strength. the aluminum-bronze alloy meant the line required no grease to prevent corrosion. sample bottles were spaced along the line at intervals, their number determined by the depth, and each could be triggered in sequence by a falling weight to capture seawater.46 once preliminary contamination checks were done, the samples were secured for further analysis in port, where chlorine titration—conducted by one of the scientists or a crew member trained for the task— allowed the calculation of salinity. the lines carried reversing thermometers, both pressureprotected and unprotected, at the same points as the water samples. once the line reached the desired depth, it would be left for twenty minutes for the thermometers to register accurately. a messenger weight sent down the line would then trigger both water sample capture and the thermometers’ reversal, locking the temperature reading at depth. the resulting temperature and salinity data together provided useful information about the movement of water throughout the ocean. comparison of the protected thermometer with the unprotected, which was thus affected by pressure, provided a calculated depth based on the known effect of pressure on temperature and the regular increase of pressure with depth, which could double-check the sounding line. thermometers could be calibrated in port with a bucket of ice water. to check that the water samplers closed at the desired depth, the resulting samples were analyzed for hydrogen ion concentration, which also varies regularly with depth. 47 46 spiess, meteor expedition, 94-5. 47 spiess, meteor expedition, 96, 99. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 136 a four-liter bottle at the bottom of the line was rigged to sample seawater with no contact with metal.48 these samples—1,282 in total—were intended to allow very precise measurement of the precious metal content of seawater, a pursuit which was central to haber’s chemical program. he hoped gold could be distilled from seawater to erase the massive war reparations imposed by the victors at versailles, which were wreaking havoc with the german economy.49 onboard analysis proved inconclusive, so the samples were shipped back to the kaiser-wilhelm institute in berlin, where further analysis proved haber’s dream elusive. sampling found the gold content of seawater to be about 10-9g/kg, or, as spiess noted, “one hundred-thousandth part of a milligram” per kilogram of seawater. distilling it would thus cost far more than it gained.50 seawater would not be the answer to germany’s financial woes. to study the ocean bottom, a cylindrical steel tube containing a glass tube was attached to the 10-km piano wire of the lukas sounder, and dropped into the sea with a sink weight sufficient to ram it into the bottom. a spring sensed contact and stopped the drum paying out the sounding line. the depth could then be read before retrieval. unlike some earlier samplers, the weight was raised with the tube, allowing its reuse and obviating the need to haul disposable weights; spiess calculated that over the course of the trip this saved the need to carry 12,000 kg of weights. the tube was closed on the bottom to prevent loss or contamination of the sample, thus retrieving not only bottom material but also the water in contact with it. when it reached the surface, the glass tube was removed from the steel one and sealed with rubber corks at each end. bottom core samples averaged greater than 50 cm in length, with some exceeding 90 cm. the glass tube allowed observation of the sample’s stratification before it was removed and cut in half lengthwise, with half retained for analysis onboard and the other half secured in paraffin for analysis in germany. in bottoms too sandy to successfully secure a core, a grab sampler enclosed a four-liter bottom sample in two bowl-like scoops. color, oxidation, calcium content, and particle size analysis allowed the scientists to compare with surface plankton sampling and to integrate geology into their study of currents.51 because of the need for multiple water and temperature samples over great depths, a station usually involved the taking of three series of samples, in shallow, intermediate, and deep water. merz had estimated each station would take ten to twelve hours, but with practice they averaged eight to nine, and as few as six when the weather was fine. meanwhile the biologists performed net catches on the surface and in shallow water.52 48 spiess, meteor expedition, 94-5. 49 ralf hahn, gold aus dem meer: die forschungen des nobelpreisträgers fritz haber in den jahren 1922-1927 (berlin: verlag für geschichte der naturwissenschaften und der technik, 1999), 33. 50 spiess, meteor expedition, 353-354. as haber put it, “die aussicht auf eine nutzbarmachung des meerwassers zur goldgewinnung ist geschwunden.” quoted in hahn, gold aus dem meer, 80. 51 spiess, meteor expedition, 153. 52 spiess, meteor expedition, 99. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 137 the bulk of biology work on the voyage consisted of plankton studies. plankton counts were performed on the water samples gathered during the sounding series. nanoplankton, especially, were too small to catch with even a fine silk net and thus had to be centrifuged from water samples and then counted and examined under a microscope. over 1200 such samples were examined while at sea, demonstrating that plankton lived even at depths of 4000 or 5000 meters, and their numbers were greatest where cold antarctic water mixed with warm.53 larger plankton were captured from using one of two pumps which pulled from between 50 and 100 meters depth. the water was discharged into a barrel, then filtered through a net of fine plankton gauze. actual net catches were also made with the lucas sounding machine and either an apstein or nansen net. the former filtered water through its funnel shape towards a measuring cylinder where plankton accumulated on a piece of parchment paper. the latter directed water towards a bottle; the apparatus was sent down open to a predetermined depth, then hauled up until a messenger closed it at a second predetermined depth. in both cases, the collected plankton were sent to the state zoological museum in hamburg.54 this work, in concert with chemical and current studies, was intended to help explain the distribution of nutrients and of plant and animal life in the oceans and their relationship with oceanic currents.55 in fact, the results showed from the paucity of nutrients in tropical surface waters compared to relatively high values below the thermocline that vertical mixing did not take place, helping to explain the lack of plankton in these nutrient-poor areas.56 later, these results would contribute to the explanation of spring plankton blooms during seasonal upwelling near the poles. the biologists observed larger animals as well, though less thoroughly. twice a day, they conducted a quantitative bird count in the ship’s aft quadrant. they also counted floating and moving organisms, such as jellyfish and weeds. lookouts were trained to call the biologist immediately if any unusual plant or animal was sighted. occasionally, the biologists also examined larger animals. for instance, while at anchor on the western side of the mid-atlantic ridge during the second profile across the atlantic, a 90-kg blue shark was caught and dissected.57 and as has been mentioned, slow-motion film studies were made of albatross in order to study their flight. meteorology at sea meteorology formed a major area of research both in its own right and in concert with the oceanographic studies, to elucidate the role of winds in the development of surface currents. the 53 spiess, meteor expedition, 124-5. 54 spiess, meteor expedition, 124-7. 55 spiess, meteor expedition, 124. 56 eric mills, biological oceanography: an early history, 1870-1960 (toronto: university of toronto press, 2012), 160. 57 spiess, meteor expedition, 123. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 138 crew’s normal observations of meteorological conditions were recorded hourly in the ship’s logbooks and daily observation books. the embarked meteorologists made similar but more extensive observations of surface air pressure and temperature, atmospheric humidity, surface water temperature, cloud forms and coverage, surface wind direction and strength, evaporation rate, and visibility. these were taken regularly three times a day, at 7 am, 6 pm, and 9 pm. spiess noted the ship was equipped to observe as well as “the first class meteorological observation station on land.” observations were radioed home as well as recorded. on the preliminary run, crewmen discovered the thermometer on the bridge read falsely high because of proximity to the metal bulkheads. a series of remote thermometers were set up for comparison, located on the bow, stern, and atop the foremast in order to be as far from heat sources as possible. all four were read in the drawing room.58 the meteorologists also measured solar radiation with a pair of actinometers, though the deck of a ship proved less than ideal for instruments that must remain focused on the sun during a reading. the actinometers were also difficult to keep smoke-free on the coal-burning ship. one of the meteorologists constructed a recorder for measuring total radiation, which was placed on the aft deck.59 twice a day, unless cloud cover obscured visibility, the crew released and tracked pilot balloons to observe winds aloft. the large, rubber balloons, perhaps 1.5 meters in diameter, reached heights of up to 21,000 m before bursting. on cloudy days, the wind gun provided an alternative tool for visualizing and tracking the winds until its use was stopped because the vibrations it induced affected the ships thermometers.60 for more detailed information, both kites and balloons could carry instruments aloft. large box kites were launched from the aft deck using an electric motor and 10 km of piano wire, though the crew had to learn how to handle them in the small space available. the main kite carried a “meteorograph,” an instrument package which recorded temperature, air pressure, moisture, and wind velocity. as the main kite rose into the air, up to five or six auxiliary kites were attached to the line to provide additional lift, allowing the heavy package to ascend as high as 4 km. kites were launched “in even slightly favorable conditions,” including on brightly moonlit nights, when they were tracked by searchlight. a smaller, hand-operated winch controlled them in the air and retrieved them to the deck. the kites were highly stable aloft, but difficult to retrieve in a strong wind, and they might sometimes dive into the sea at the last moment and be lost.61 paired balloons allowed study of meteorological conditions at higher altitudes. a fully inflated main balloon carried the meteorograph basket, while a secondary balloon filled with less 58 spiess, meteor expedition, 64-65. quote on p. 64. 59 spiess, meteor expedition, 66. 60 spiess, meteor expedition, 66-7. 61 spiess, meteor expedition, 67-9, 287. quote on pg. 69. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 139 hydrogen tagged along for the ride. the gas within the balloons expanded with decreasing atmospheric pressure until the fuller balloon burst at about 20 km altitude. the second balloon, unable to keep the instruments aloft by itself, acted as a parachute to slow their descent and then as a beacon so the ship could retrieve the instruments.62 these flights were carried out less often than kite ascents, in part because tethered kites could safely ascend into clouds, whereas a heavy cloud cover that obscured tracking of the free-floating balloons could result in the loss of the instrument package. sounding the ocean the most revolutionary of the investigatory technologies aboard meteor was sonar, in the form of an echo sounder or fathometer. a navigational device to find depth using a sound pulse had been patented in germany as early as 1912, and in the wake of the titanic disaster inventors and maritime officials experimented with the same concept to measure distances horizontally or find objects (such as icebergs) in the water surrounding a vessel. the great war’s interference in civilian shipping had retarded the spread of the navigational technology and obscured other experimentation beneath the cloak of military secrecy. by the 1920s, though, the us, france, and britain all experienced some success in developing these tools and were deploying them in limited fashion aboard moving ships. an american warship had sounded a continuous profile across the atlantic, and while the single resulting depth cross-section demonstrated such a feat could be accomplished, it hardly cast much new light on the topography of the atlantic basin. in 1923 the us hydrographic office published a bathymetric chart of the california coastline incorporating 5000 sonar measurements conducted by two warships over thirty-eight days, but while this represented a vast improvement both in area covered and in time and labor spent, it barely touched the rim of the vast pacific.63 with their two new, state-of-the-art sounders, the germans hoped to provide the first comprehensive survey of the atlantic. both operated by emitting a 1050-hz pulse, which reflected off the bottom and returned to the ship after a delay which depended on the depth beneath the ship’s keel. a receiving membrane on the hull detected the reflected signal. the sounding apparatus calculated the depth based on the delay, using a preset approximation of the speed of sound in seawater.64 soundings could thus be conducted in any depth, in all weather, 62 spiess, meteor expedition, 53-54. 63 höhler, “depth records,” 136. “echo sounding: test carried out by the u.s.s. ‘stewart’ 20th to 29th june 1922’’, hydrographic review 1 (1923): 71 – 72. gerhard schott, “tiefseelotungen mittelst echolot,” annalen der hydrographie und maritimen meteorologie: organ des hydrographischen bureaus und der deutschen seewarte 51 (august 1923): 192-195. 64 this was 1470 m/s for the signal sounder, or 1490 m/s for the atlas. hoheisel-huxmann, deutsche atlantische expedition, 58. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 140 while the ship maintained speed. at every oceanographic station, an old-fashioned line sounding verified the echo sounding results.65 in addition to the receiving membrane on the hull, a microphone also picked up the returning echo and conveyed it to listening naval personnel. schott, at the seewarte, believed automation that allowed the calculation of depth without human intervention, and thus elimination of the human ear from the process, rendered the method more objective and thus its results more accurate and trustworthy.66 the technicians doing the listening, though, found that with practice they could distinguish bottom type and topography based on differences in the reflected sound. they could also hear the reverberating echoes. technicians soon learned to recognize the different sounds and patterns of reverberation returned from different bottom morphologies. on a flat bottom, the echo might repeat up to five times at regular intervals. but when the bottom was broken and irregular, the intervals were irregular and the repeated echoes might even overlap. 67 retaining the human ear in the process thus led to results that might arguably be less precise in terms solely of depth measurement, but which provided additional layers of information granted solely through the employment of this expert sensory knowledge. the results were as good as could have been hoped. the two modern echo sounders performed flawlessly; they remained in continuous use during the thirty-month expedition with no technical difficulties, usually taking individual measurements every twenty minutes, and thus at two or three mile intervals.68 when the bottom topography seemed particularly interesting, the interval was shortened. the morphology thus charted often determined the location or interval of oceanographic stations, as it suggested the contours of ocean basins which could, when augmented with the thermal and chemical results gained by sampling, elucidate the movement of deep currents. the resulting charts of atlantic topography represent a significant legacy of the expedition, and formed the basis for a three-dimensional, bottom relief model of the south atlantic displayed in the berlin museum of oceanography.69 in addition, as historian sabine höhler has pointed out, the use of a sound moving through water to calculate distance rendered the water itself the medium of measurement, instead of the lines and weights of the previous generations of sounders. the properties of sea water that affected the behavior of sound within it thus became important objects of study for the purposes of their participation in this technology, rather than just as an end in itself.70 this would prove immensely important to the future direction of physical oceanography as a field, both rendering 65 spiess, meteor expedition, 151. 66 höhler, “depth records,” 134. schott, “messung der meerestiefen durch echolot,” verhandlungen der deutsche geographentages 21 (1926). 67 spiess, meteor expedition, 83. 68 spiess, meteor expedition, 83. 69 höhler, “profilgewinn. karten der atlantischen expedition (1925–1927) der notgemeinschaft der deutschen wissenschaft,” ntm international journal of history & ethics of natural sciences, technology & medicine 10, no. 4 (december 2002): 234-246. 70 höhler, “depth records,” 122. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 141 the world’s blue water navies important patrons of oceanography and simultaneously guiding the direction of study as the field developed over the course of the next several decades. nationalism at sea and ashore historians have noted a push in the first few decades of the twentieth century towards internationalism in science, especially in european science. the ocean and atmospheric sciences in particular seemed highly suited for transnational work, as the winds and currents and their flora and fauna respected no national boundaries.71 katharine anderson points to marine meteorology in particular for its ability to “tell us much about global science in the first decades of the century,” both in terms of its organizational history and “as a conceptual ideal.”72 postgreat war, the formation of the league of nations suggested a new internationalism on the political front, one which scientists might have been forgiven for imagining would be reflected in their own situation. however, just as the war had wrought major changes in european politics, the case for international science had also been complicated by the conflict, especially when it came to germany. along with their compatriots in other occupations, german scientists were dealing with a swirl of both concrete and emotional repercussions from the war. this included actual privation and hardship, amplified by the hyperinflation of the 1920s; in the case of scientists this meant a lack of funding opportunities, especially outside germany, where german currency was not accepted because of its illiquidity. it also included censure and blame, or at least the perception of blame, from international peers and scientific bodies, who as a result did not invite german participation in international efforts.73 neither were german scientists above the emotional fallout of the war. many of them had invested themselves fully in the war effort, in keeping with haber’s claim that “[i]n wartime, the scholar belongs to his nation, in peacetime to mankind.”74 they suffered a wounded nationalist pride at the same rate as their peers in other professions. as a nation, germans had lost a war, and they suffered now from restrictions on what had been favorite nationalist projects, such as 71 elisabeth crawford, “the universe of international science, 1880-1939,” in solomon’s house revisited: the organisation and institutionalization of science, ed. tore frängsmyr (canton, ma : science history publications, u.s.a., 1990), 251-269; rozwadowski, “internationalism, environmental necessity and national interest in the marine sciences and other sciences,” minerva 42 (2004): 127-149; jacob darwin hamblin, “visions of international scientific cooperation: the case of oceanic science 1920-1955,” minerva 38 (2000): 393-423; rozwadowski, the sea knows no boundaries: a century of marine science under ices (seattle: university of washington press, 2002.) 72 anderson, “marine meteorology,” 213. 73 daniel kevles, “‘into hostile political camps’,”47-60; elisabeth crawford, “internationalism in science as a casualty of the first world war: relations between german and allied scientists as reflected in nominations for the nobel prizes in physics and chemistry,” social science information 27, no. 2 (june 1988): 163-201. 74 quoted in crawford, “the universe of international science,” 252. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 142 the fleet germany had worked so hard to maintain at the level of a world power, or the colonies they had scrambled to build abroad. germany had been at the forefront of science, a leader in any number of fields. the lack of money, of colonial sites to accommodate their fieldwork, and of international goodwill meant they now risked falling behind in science, just when they had been so decisively removed from world power status politically. these concerns were reflected in every detail of the planning and execution of the deutsche atlantische expedition, from the practical to the symbolic. from a practical standpoint, the ongoing devaluation of germany’s currency was a constant backdrop to their work. this can be seen in merz’s fears that a multi-stage expedition would be cancelled after the first leg, as he imagined returning home to find funding for the next sections had evaporated. during the expedition itself, supplies—from instruments to foodstuffs and even coal—were often shipped via german cargo line to their expected ports of call so they could be paid for in home currency, rather than spending scarce foreign currency or gold for these expenses abroad. from the more emotional standpoint, the planners and participants positioned themselves as inheritors and continuers of a great scientific tradition, and when possible, a specifically german tradition. this was not wholly without precedent. certainly previous expeditions made similar nods to the footsteps in which they travelled, as spiess did when he reported making a mid-ocean station on 10 august 1925 in the same location as challenger had, or when they made another at the spot where over seventy years earlier the american uss dolphin had recorded the deepest point ever sounded in the atlantic.75 neither was he out of line to do so; the use of sonar sounding to check dolphin’s notoriously deep line sounding, thus reconfirming with new technology the inaccuracy of the original depth, was completely scientifically appropriate. that in doing so he claimed for german science some greater mastery over the hitherto imprecisely known depth was, however, symptomatic of an entire attitude of the expedition. when spiess cited previous expeditions, he noted that (by his calculation) seven of the ten major expeditions preceding his had been german, including those of gazelle, möwe, and planet, and he noted every time meteor’s track or data intercepted these forerunners.76 when meteor reached south georgia island in february 1926, ship’s personnel visited the site of the german 1882/3 international polar year investigations, a visit spiess described as a kind of pilgrimage. appropriately to that purpose, they found many remains, though the station had mostly been destroyed.77 this is not to say the germans distanced themselves from the scientific work of nongermans. spiess invoked the names of challenger and dolphin as tokens of power, proving meteor’s worthiness for inclusion in the list of major expeditions and great ocean-going science. 75 hoheisel-huxmann, deutsche atlantische expedition, 36; 89. 76 “die deutsche atlantische expedition . . . i. bericht,” [xvii] – 77. 77 hoheisel-huxmann, deutsche atlantische expedition, 47. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 143 similarly, merz visited scandinavian researchers before the expedition, seeking their blessings for the plan, and the researchers welcomed already famous swedish oceanographer walfrid ekman as a guest on the preliminary expedition, ostensibly to supervise the initial use of their water samplers and current meters, which were based on his designs, but clearly also seeking in his presence approbation for their efforts.78 if germans did science that put them in the company of great expeditions and met with the approval of internationally known scholars, then they were a great power once more, in a way versailles could not deny them. the displays of nationalist pride were not confined to the performance of science, however, though it is difficult to tell how much of its frank display is because of the hybrid nature of the expedition’s leadership, which left a career naval officer to write the official expedition account, or because that account was intended for the public rather than a scientific audience. port calls for replenishment and refueling were intentionally scheduled for former german colonies or major german expatriate communities whenever possible. this practice places meteor’s scientific efforts within the neocolonial framework described by gregory cushman, allowing a germany officially stripped of its colonies to maintain an informal empire.79 these visits were celebrated with speeches commemorating germany’s past and predicting its future greatness, and with patriotic songs, such as when they concluded a celebration in windhoek with a rousing rendition of “siegreich woll’n wir england schlagen!” (“we want to defeat england!”) in the presence of british officials. spiess followed with a speech, telling the crowd, “germany has always risen again. what it needs is the right man and he will come!”80 while it is perhaps unsurprising for logistics and public relations, which so clearly encompassed the swirl of both concrete and emotional repercussions from the war, to express a nationalist agenda, the expedition’s scientific activities were not exempt, as merz’s initial promise to lay claim to the atlantic suggests. sabine höhler has argued the gathering of oceanographic and sounding data—and their publication by german scientists in charts of the ocean’s basin which were labelled as products of german science—constituted a symbolic claiming of territory.81 if germans could no longer claim colonies ashore, they could, in the act of mapping, claim the bottom of the ocean. 78 spiess, “bericht des expeditionsleiters,” 9. 79 cushman, “the struggle over airways in the americas, 1919-1945: atmospheric science, aviation technology, and neocolonialism,” ch 7 in intimate universality: local and global themes in the history of weather and climate, ed. james rodger fleming, vladimir jankovic, and deborah r. coen (sagamore beach, ma: science history publications/usa, 2006), 175-222. 80 spiess, meteor expedition, 271. 81 höhler, “profilgewinn,” 234-246. in this article and elsewhere, höhler’s argument follows bruno latour’s depiction of the collection of data into charts as a rendition of time and space into stable but portable form; höhler, “depth records and ocean volumes: ocean profiling by sounding technology, 1850-1930,” history and technology 18, no. 2 (2002): 119-154. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 144 their meteorological efforts similarly laid claim to the currents of the air over the atlantic. while the meteorologists onboard both wrote their own reports and sent data home for further analysis, much of their results volume consists of hundreds of pages of tabulated data, an assertion of german data dominance to support the symbolic seizure of aerial territory. spiess also noted, “the total aerological data [from the voyage] will be of great practical value for aviation over the atlantic ocean, which cannot be long in coming.”82 charles lindbergh’s transatlantic flight, just two weeks before meteor at last returned home to wilhelmshaven in early june 1927, drove this message home. although spiess did not explicitly tie this prediction to military purposes, the statement—and the studies it represents—must be considered alongside other forms of german pushback against mandated disarmament. just as the encouragement of soaring in gliders allowed the nation to train a cadre of pilots without building powered aircraft, so too would the scientific study of the atmosphere over the atlantic have great usefulness for a revived military machine.83 indeed, as cushman has related, the deutsche seewarte was involved in other projects that let them “appropriat[e] the weather in the atlantic basin” and, more concretely, furthered the efforts of the german aviation industry in latin america, where it found a refuge during the post-versailles restrictions on military airpower.84 the german atlantic expedition, then, demonstrates the not-uncommon trope of science as a tool of politics. but these scientists were neither naïve pawns of savvy politicians nor cynically trading their support for naval goals in exchange for access to resources for their work. they were instead willing wielders of politics, as eager to use their skills to forward german pride and to defend their perceived place in the first rank of a worldwide hierarchy as were their naval colleagues. this model of the relationship between science and the state is a useful one to keep in mind. it is likely also a more common one than many might prefer to imagine. acknowledgments this research was assisted by a fellowship from the dissertation proposal development fellowship program of the social science research council with funds provided by the andrew w. mellon foundation. it also benefitted from research conducted as a kenneth e. and dorothy v. hill fellow at the huntington library. 82 spiess, meteor expedition, 391. 83 see peter fritzsche, a nation of fliers: german aviation and the popular imagination (cambridge, ma: harvard university press, 1992), especially ch. 3, “gliding and the revival of nationalism,” 103-131. 84 in addition to its support of the meteor expedition, the seewarte conducted between 1922 and 1930 a number of meteorological expeditions towards this end, including ten to latin america, five to west africa, and others in the north atlantic, while expanding a network of shipborne observers in the atlantic. cushman, “struggle over airways,” 188. microsoft word 7) lehmann .docx history of meteorology 8 (2017) 145 losing the field: franz thorbecke and (post-)colonial climatology in germany philipp lehmann lehmann@ucr.edu university of california, riverside in the introduction to an edited volume on the “morphology of climate zones” from 1927, the german geographer and former expedition leader franz thorbecke (1875-1945) described the goal of the collection of essays as follows: the contributors have agreed to refrain from providing a systematic edifice of their respective climate types on a general level; they do not strive for completeness across the entire surface of the earth; rather everyone will report primarily about their own observations and draw conclusions from them.1 the volume was certainly not limited geographically: participants reported on environments from the polar regions to tropical forests and deserts. rather than reaching generalized and generalizable rules or laws, however, thorbecke and his fellow authors strove for detailed analyses of particular regions with their particular climatological and morphological characteristics. in itself, this focus of the volume may not be all too surprising: it did, after all, fit in well with the goals of regional geography, or länderkunde, which continued to be a popular methodology at least among germanophone practitioners in the 1920s.2 thorbecke, however,                                                                                                 1 franz thorbecke, “klima und oberflächenformen: die stellung des problems,” in morphologie der klimazonen, ed. franz thorbecke (breslau: f. hirt, 1927), 3. 2 on the significance of the concept of regional geography by alfred hettner, see: ute wardenga, “defining geography: the structure and development of alfred hettner’s methodological construct,” in struggles over geography: violence, freedom and development, ed. m. j. watts (heidelberg: university of heidelberg, 2000), history of meteorology 8 (2017) 146 took pains to defend the approach of the book in his introduction, revealing a certain insecurity about the limited scope of the work, which not only focused on the particulars of the selected climatic zones, but also dealt exclusively with present climatic conditions and their effects on the extant – and thus directly observable – morphological phenomena. it is difficult to pinpoint what exactly drove thorbecke to write and publish the threepage preface. he had first delivered a version of it as a short introductory speech at the naturforschertag, a conference bringing together scientists from various disciplines. the speechturned-preface reads more like a preemptive defense than either an introduction to the essays to follow or even the “positing of the problem” that the title promises. against the backdrop of his own work and the wider context of german science in the 1920s, however, thorbecke may have felt the need to uphold a particular way of thinking about climates and climatology that he had learned and practiced in the field or, more concretely, that he had experienced in the german colony of cameroon. after the first world war, the kind of work that thorbecke and his coauthors had done to establish and maintain their respective careers was no longer possible. the treaty of versailles had codified the loss of the german overseas colonies during the war, while the political isolation of post-war germany also entailed the isolation of german science from its international networks of knowledge production and exchange.3 at the same time, climatological work had been moving from its nineteenth-century home in geography to the physical and chemical sciences and thus also from the earth to the atmosphere. in the first decades of the twentieth century, the study of weather and climate underwent far-reaching changes, with both the use of new technologies, such as aeroplanes, and new dynamic atmospheric approaches in meteorology and, ultimately, also in climatology. 4 all of these political, academic, and disciplinary developments, however, were absent in thorbecke’s vision. in his short introduction                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               113–26; ute wardenga, geographie als chorologie  : zur genese und struktur von alfred hettners konstrukt der geographie (stuttgart: franz steiner, 1995); on the persistence and development of the concept, see: ute wardenga, “german geographical thought and the development of länderkunde,” inforgeo 18, no. 19 (2006): 135–155. 3 see: bernd widdig, culture and inflation in weimar germany (berkeley: university of california press, 2001), 169–95; on the issue of scientific isolation and the search for alternative research sites, see also penelope hardy’s contribution to this issue: “meteorology as nationalism on the german atlantic expedition,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 124–144. 4 see: robert marc friedman, appropriating the weather: vilhelm bjerknes and the construction of a modern meteorology (ithaca: cornell university press, 1989); frederik nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century, international geophysics series 60 (san diego: academic press, 1995); sabine höhler, luftfahrtforschung und luftfahrtmythos: wissenschaftliche ballonfahrt in deutschland, 1880-1910 (frankfurt: campus, 2001); james rodger fleming, inventing atmospheric science: bjerknes, rossby, wexler, and the foundations of modern meteorology, 2016; gabriele gramelsberger, “calculating the weather: emerging cultures of prediction in late nineteenthand early twentieth-century europe,” in cultures of prediction in atmospheric and climate science: epistemic and cultural shifts in computer-based modelling and simulation, ed. matthias heymann, gabriele gramelsberger, and martin mahony (new york: routledge, 2017); on the early development of a “dynamic climatology,” see also: philipp n. lehmann, “whither climatology? brückner’s climate oscillations, data debates, and dynamic climatology,” history of meteorology 7 (2015): 49–70. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 147 and with the edited volume in general, he seems to have been intent to hold on to a way of practicing climatology that was tightly bound up to the short-lived overseas colonial endeavors of his home country. while the colonial empire had quickly become but a distant memory in the crisis-ridden early years of the weimar republic, it was still very present in scientific output and, particularly, in geographical writing. this article will take franz thorbecke’s work in africa to illuminate the significance of scientific work in the colonial field to the shape and content of climatological practice. 5 germany, which transitioned rapidly and involuntarily from a colonial power with global reach to a smaller and internationally isolated postcolonial state during the first world war, serves as a fascinating case study to examine the effects of both the construction and the subsequent loss of that colonial field among scientists, who shaped their methods and made their names overseas. climatology, as a multivalent discipline with a past in both geography and the physical (and chemical) sciences, was one of the most global disciplines of the turn of the twentieth century, relying on data from around the world.6 it was thus perhaps no surprise that thorbecke chose to focus on climatology in many of his publications in the interwar period to present and develop his vision of a science dependent on colonial landscapes in need of careful and detailed study. thorbecke’s field franz thorbecke was born in heidelberg in 1875.7 he studied natural sciences at göttingen, before transferring to the university of heidelberg to work with alfred hettner, one of the foremost geographers of his time who was serving as the editor of the renowned geographische zeitschrift.8 after the completion of his studies, thorbecke worked as an editorial assistant at hettner’s journal and, in 1905, he took on a teaching position at a girls’ secondary school in mannheim. only two years later he left his post again, when the opportunity arose to join an expedition to the german colony of cameroon in central africa, organized by the geographer                                                                                                 5 on the importance of imperial or colonial meteorology, see: martin mahony, “for an empire of ‘all types of climate’: meteorology as an imperial science,” journal of historical geography 51 (2016): 29–39; see also other contributions in this volume. 6 for a short overview of the development of climatology in europe and north america, see: matthias heymann, “the evolution of climate ideas and knowledge,” wiley interdisciplinary reviews: climate change 1, no. 4 (2010): 581–597. 7 for a short biographical sketch, see: andreas freitäger, “franz thorbecke (1875-1945),” in gelehrte, diplomaten, unternehmer: kölner sammler und ihre bücherkollektionen in der universitätsund stadtbibliothek köln, ed. gernot gabel (cologne: universitätsund stadtbibliothek köln, 2003), 150–59. 8 together with petermanns mitteilungen, the geographische zeitschrift was one of the most important and widelyread germanophone geographical journals of its time; on petermanns mitteilungen, see: sebastian lentz and ferjan ormeling, eds., die verräumlichung des welt-bildes: petermanns geographische mitteilungen zwischen “explorativer geographie” und der “vermessenheit” europäischer raumphantasien. (stuttgart: f. steiner, 2008). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 148 kurt hassert.9 upon his return to germany a year later, thorbecke used material he collected on his journey to write a dissertation in geography on the manengouba highlands, which he published in 1911.10 in the same year, thorbecke was chosen to lead another expedition to cameroon alongside his assistant leo waibel (1888-1951). the expedition was organized and financed by the private german colonial society, but also supported by the german colonial office.11 in 1913, thorbecke returned to germany and started to write his major oeuvre im hochland von mittel-kamerun (“in the highlands of central cameroon”), based on his extensive travel journals. im hochland was published in four volumes between 1914 and 1951, thus spanning four different political regimes in germany. the last part of the final volume appeared posthumously and was edited by thorbecke’s wife.12 marie pauline thorbecke had accompanied her husband on the second journey to cameroon, and had contributed to the expedition in various ways – most enduringly by writing her own journal and by recording the scientific work in photographs, drawings, and paintings. 13 she also became the center of public attention surrounding the expedition, when she was injured during a nighttime spear attack in cameroon. the spear had probably been aimed at her husband, but the exact circumstances of the attack remained unclear. marie-pauline survived the confrontation with only minor superficial wounds, which did not stop her husband from using the attack to complain about insufficient protection by the colonial government for scientific endeavors.14                                                                                                 9 for a short report on the expedition, see: kurt hassert, forschungs-expedition ins kamerun-gebirge und ins hinterland von nordwest-kamerun (berlin: gesellschaft für erdkunde zu berlin, 1910); on the history of the german colony of cameroon, see: alexandre kum’a n’dumbe, das deutsche kaiserreich in kamerun: wie deutschland in kamerun seine kolonialmacht aufbauen konnte, 1840-1910 (douala: africavenir, 2009); albert gouaffo, wissensund kulturtransfer im kolonialen kontext: das beispiel kamerun-deutschland (1884-1919) (würzburg: königshausen und neumann, 2007); for an english introduction to the german overseas empire, see: sebastian conrad, german colonialism: a short history, trans. sorcha o’hagan (cambridge, uk: cambridge university press, 2012). 10 franz thorbecke, das manenguba-hochland: ein beitrag zur landeskunde kameruns (berlin: e. s. mittler, 1911). 11 carsten gräbel, die erforschung der kolonien: expeditionen und koloniale wissenskultur deutscher geographen, 1884-1919 (bielefeld: transcript, 2015), 185–90. 12 franz thorbecke, im hochland von mittel-kamerun: physische geographie des ost-mbamlandes, ed. marie pauline thorbecke, vol. 4, pt. 2, 4 vols. (hamburg: cram, de gruyter & co., 1951). 13 see: christraud m. geary, “‘on the savannah’: marie pauline thorbecke’s images from cameroon, west africa (1911–12),” art journal 49, no. 2 (june 1, 1990): 150–58; anne-kathrin horstmann, “koloniale geographie das ehepaar marie pauline und franz thorbecke,” in köln und der deutsche kolonialismus. eine spurensuche, ed. marianne bechhaus-gerst and anne-kathrin horstmann (cologne: böhlau, 2013), 101–6. 14 bundesarchiv berlin-lichterfelde (barch) reichskolonialamt (r1001), folder 3344, 46-7: colonial government of cameroon to colonial office, 14 october 1912; franz thorbecke, im hochland von mittel-kamerun: die reise: eindrücke und beobachtungen, vol. 1 (hamburg: friederichsen, 1914), 72–74; marie pauline thorbecke, auf der savanne: tagebuch einer kamerunreise (berlin: mittler, 1914), 174–80; see also: gräbel, die erforschung der kolonien, 167. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 149 fig. 1.“middle cameroon”; map of the area of theorbecke’s expedition (abhandlungen des hamburgischen kolonialinstituts, 1914) as thorbecke’s second expedition had concluded immediately before the first world war, he could not return to cameroon to develop his studies further: after the onset of hostilities in 1914, germany swiftly lost control over its african colonies on the battlefield, and lost them for good in the treaty of versailles, whose twenty-second article transformed the colonies into league of nations mandates.15 along with the nascent scientific infrastructure that the colonial governments and scientists had built up, the entire territory of cameroon was partitioned between france and britain, with france gaining the lion’s share. thorbecke, who first took up a teaching post in mannheim and then became the successor of his erstwhile travel companion kurt hassert at the university of cologne, never got over the loss of the colonial possessions. to him, the collapse of the german overseas empire meant not only a loss of national prestige, but also a loss of his primary field of research. in his interwar writings, he frequently highlighted the contribution of german science to the exploration, mapping, and development of its former african colonies and lamented the present conditions under new colonial management – a strategy thorbecke used to legitimate the colonial revisionism he shared with a number of his                                                                                                 15 see: nele matz, “civilization and the mandate system under the league of nations as origin of trusteeship,” ed. a. von bogdandy and r. wolfrun, max planck yearbook of united nations law 9 (2005): 47–95 (the article includes the full text of article 22 of the versailles treaty as an annex). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 150 geographical colleagues. 16 leo waibel, thorbecke’s assistant on the second cameroon expedition, even had first-hand knowledge of the loss of the colonial empire, as he was caught off-guard by the onset of hostilities while on a research mission in german southwest africa (today namibia) with his colleague and fellow geographer fritz jaeger. both waibel and jaeger were drafted into the colonial army and fought in some encounters against the south african army, which was under the command of the british imperial government. the fighting in southwest africa ended before it had really begun, when the outnumbered german forces surrendered in july 1915 after having retreated and regrouped various times.17 ultimately, both waibel and jaeger were allowed to continue with some of their studies, while they were stuck in africa unable to return to europe during wartime. in their post-war account, however, the two geographers showed little appreciation for their situation and complained about travel restrictions into some parts of the territory, which had not allowed them to stick to their original research plans.18 the weimar years were difficult for many of the german researchers who had built their career around fieldwork in the colonies. most of them were not allowed, or did not have the financial means, to return to their field sites. some, like thorbecke’s first expedition companion kurt hassert, turned to other topics, while many of the geographers active in the german colonies just before the first world war continued to publish on the territories or regions they had become acquainted with during their expeditions, drawing on data they had collected in the prewar years.19 and most of the former colonial scientists openly mourned the loss of the german overseas empire, which had presented them not only with new opportunities for research, but also with new funding prospects from organizations like the german colonial association and from government agencies like the colonial office.20 all of these opportunities had vanished with the war and its aftermath. the situation changed when hitler and the national socialists assumed power in 1933. many of the geographers who had been active in the colonies were well-disposed toward the new regime. this was not only due to a general preponderance of conservative to völkisch outlooks among the majority of colonial scientists, but was also founded in the shared hope that the new                                                                                                 16 see, for example: f. thorbecke, “die karte von kamerun in 1:300000,” geographische zeitschrift 24, no. 2/3 (1918): 81–84. 17 see: hew strachan, the first world war, vol. 1 (oxford: oxford university press, 2001), 550–65. 18 fritz jaeger and leo waibel, beiträge zur landeskunde von südwestafrika (berlin: e. s. mittler und sohn, 1920). 19 see, for instance: fritz jaeger, “die landeskundliche erforschung südwest-afrikas während der deutschen herrschaft,” geographische zeitschrift 31, no. 5 (1925): 280–89; hans meyer, “geopolitische betrachtungen über deutsch-ostafrika (tanganyika territory) einst und jetzt,” zeitschrift für geopolitik 3, no. 1 (1926): 161–74. 20 on the development of germanophone geography, see: bruno schelhaas and ingrid hönsch, “history of german geography: worldwide reputation and strategies of nationalisation and institutionalisation,” in geography: discipline, profession and subject since 1870, ed. gary s. dunbar, 62 (springer netherlands, 2001), 9–44; hansdietrich schultz, die deutschsprachige geographie von 1800 bis 1970: ein beitrag zur geschichte ihrer methodologie (berlin: selbstverlag des geographischen instituts der freien universität berlin, 1980). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 151 political situation would mean a renewed interest in colonial revisionism in africa and beyond.21 in the early years of the third reich, some of the former colonial scientists published glowing articles about their work overseas, attempting to revive public interest in the colonial empire.22 thorbecke, as well, drew new hope from the openly imperialist tone of national socialist propaganda. while he did not join the nsdap, he showed his positive stance towards the new regime by actively participating in the purges at the university of cologne.23 in his work, he was particularly interested in the lebensraum rhetoric of the nazis, which fit neatly with his ideas of the necessity of colonial spaces for both economic and scientific survival and development.24 once he realized that the imperial plans of hitler’s regime were focused on the east rather than the south, thorbecke attempted to emphasize the importance of tropical colonies for a new german empire and began to lay out plans for a new german political and scientific presence in africa himself, describing “geography as the trailblazer for colonization.”25 while his pleas never made an impression on the political leadership of the third reich, thorbecke never tired of upholding his vision of scientific work from the wilhelmine colonial period, when he was one among a group of geographers sent out to the colonies to gather information and data on the “german land overseas.” colonial climatology as auxiliary science back in his expedition days, thorbecke had been tasked with answering questions ranging from “are there lions in the colony” to “how far has the cultivation of european vegetables and tropical crops progressed in the highlands.”26 as different and wide-ranging as these questions were, they also shared some implicit commonalities. after all, in order to find answers to both of                                                                                                 21 see: gräbel, die erforschung der kolonien, 355–56. 22 see, for instance: carl uhlig, “neue deutsche kolonialpolitik,” aus unterricht und forschung: wissenschaftliche zeitschrift auf nationalsozialistischer grundlage 4 (1934): 168–80; fritz jaeger, “die geographische bedeutung der deutschen kolonialarbeit zum 50. geburtstag des deutschen kolonialreiches,” petermanns geographische mitteilungen 80 (1934): 105–7. 23 see: frank golczewski, kölner universitätslehrer und der nationalsozialismus: personengeschichtliche ansätze (cologne: böhlau, 1988), 64. 24 see: franz thorbecke, “deutsche kolonien und deutsche geographie,” geographische zeitschrift 40, no. 5/6 (january 1, 1934): 181–90; franz thorbecke, “das deutsche kolonialproblem,” geographische zeitschrift 42, no. 11 (1936): 417–19. 25 see: franz thorbecke, “die geographie als wegbereiterin der kolonisation: rückblick und ausblick,” in lebensraumfragen europäischer völker. europas koloniale ergänzungsräume, ed. heinrich schmitthenner, oskar schmieder, and karl dietzel, vol. 2 (leipzig: quelle & meyer, 1941), 28–47; franz thorbecke, “das tropische westafrika,” in afrika: beiträge zu einer praktische kolonialkunde, ed. paul rohrbach (berlin: werner & co., 1943), 29–60. 26 barch r1001/3342, 3-14: “aufgaben der expedition ins kamerunund manenguba-gebirge samt hinterland.” history of meteorology 8 (2017) 152 these questions – and for the determination of economic possibilities in general – knowledge of the climatic conditions in the colonies was paramount. and, thus, meteorological observations and the collection of climatological data series became some of the most important day-to-day tasks of the expeditions. while thorbecke had shared the duties of leading the first expedition to cameroon in 1907/08 with kurt hassert, he was clearly the man in charge during the second journey. he devised the plans for the research to be undertaken and negotiated with the colonial office in berlin about the travel route and finances. 27 first and foremost, thorbecke was following governmental directives to explore the economic potential of german cameroon and was answerable to the german colonial society. he nevertheless retained the right to make the decisions on how to approach the tasks given to the expedition and to set his own research priorities in the field.28 throughout his time in africa, he stayed true to the wide-ranging tasks of a colonial geographer, including everything from ethnographic studies to altitude measurements. the daily work of the expedition also comprised daily meteorological observations and largerscale climatological studies, which thorbecke pursued with unwavering energy. and even after his return to germany, he spent a large share of his time – and a large share of his publications – dealing with climatological issues. the most direct testimony of thorbecke’s work on the weather and climate in cameroon is supplied by his “climatological-meteorological journal,” which he updated daily for almost an entire year in 1912. it was published – probably with only minor editorial changes – in the last volume of im hochland von mittel-kamerun.29 the journal gives temperature and barometric pressure readings for usually three times each day – conducted at varying times in the morning, early afternoon, and evening. besides these numerical data, however, the journal also includes extensive – sometimes multiple-paragraph-long – discursive entries about the weather conditions and direct sensory perceptions, as in the following example from yoko (or joko) in central cameroon: then it turns very humid, the sun stings, thick black cumulus clouds cover the sky, especially from the east and south-east; from 13:30 onwards, thunderstorms in the distance, we hear violent rolls of thunder, which get evermore intense around 14:00, thus seeming to draw nearer. the cool wind increases, the corrugated sheet roof rattles beneath the sun, which is now moving behind the clouds.30                                                                                                 27 barch r1001/3344, 29: thorbecke to friedrich von lindequist (head of the colonial office), 8 october 1911. 28 see, for instance: barch r1001/3344, 52-64: report by thorbecke, “wirtschaftsu. verkehrsgeographische beobachtungen der expedition der deutschen kolonialgesellschaft nach kamerun,” n.d. 29 thorbecke, im hochland von mittel-kamerun: physische geographie des ost-mbamlandes, 4, pt. 2:115–285. 30 thorbecke, 4, pt. 2:156 [my translation]. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 153 other than the narrative depiction of extraordinary weather events like heavy thunderstorms or rainbows, thorbecke also spent many lines describing the observation and experience of the atmospheric phenomena accompanying sunsets, as in the following example: sunset with afterglow, the sun itself remains behind clouds, almost full moon with a small, yellow corona against the cloudless sky, which is covered only by a few vapor clouds above the valley. despite the intense moonlight casting shadows, some stars pierce through fully with their silver light, as intensely as i have never observed at home.31 in these almost lyrical passages, thorbecke added qualitative information to the quantitative information of the instrument readings, such as the auditory effects of incoming thunderstorms and the light quality of the moon and the stars. he also put his experience into a comparative context to observations in germany and ascribed a singularity and uniqueness to the phenomena observed in cameroon. it seems almost as if thorbecke was consciously attempting to fill the quantitative numerical data he recorded with place-specific qualifiers, expressed through descriptions of his own sensory perception. in one of the most strikingly expressive passages, thorbecke wrote about a particularly remarkable sunset he experienced: the twilight was especially beautiful and magnificent today; the sun must have set behind grey clouds in the west with an almost blood-red tinge, or so i deduced from the grey-violet silhouette of the njua [an inselberg or island mountain in central cameroon] being set sharply – almost hauntingly – against the red glowing evening sky.32 to some degree, thorbecke’s penchant for qualitative descriptions can be ascribed to the difficult conditions of instrument-based work during the expedition. he commented on the material problems with thermometers and barometers, some of which had broken or been misplaced very early on his travels. 33 thorbecke, however, also seemed to have a more theoretical interest in adding qualitative addenda to the numerical data he recorded on his journey through cameroon. he was trained in hettner’s school of regional geography, which valued narrative descriptions as a tool to understand and communicate the particular                                                                                                 31 thorbecke, 4, pt. 2:160 [my translation]. 32 thorbecke, 4, pt. 2:168 [my translation]. 33 thorbecke, 4, pt. 2:6–8. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 154 characteristics of a landscape. this training showed throughout all of thorbecke’s multi-volume expedition report and – somewhat more surprisingly – was even very prominent in the meteorological-climatological journal he kept with great regularity. colonial climatology, in thorbecke’s work, was thus less a discipline to feed data tables on atmospheric conditions, but rather an auxiliary science to regional geography, aiding its task to identify the full range of characteristics of a particular and possibly even unique landscape. climatology as telluric science thorbecke concluded his second expedition to cameroon merely a year before the onset of hostilities of the first world war. on his journey, he had collected a vast amount of data and information, but had not yet synthesized nor published most of his material by 1914. this work was left for the years of the war and, subsequently, the postwar period, when thorbecke had to witness first the military defeat of the german colonial forces and, then, the definitive loss of the colonies in the treaty of versailles. the first volume of thorbecke’s major oeuvre im hochland appeared just before the onset of the war. containing a description of the travels and ruminations about the colonial future of the colony, it is the most narrative of the volumes.34 the second volume on the “anthropogeography of east mbama-land” was published during wartime in 1916.35 in the short preface, thorbecke acknowledged the war and the de facto loss of the colonies, but he did not alter his manuscript to mirror the political changes due to his “faith in the recovery of the colonies.”36 after the war, thorbecke published the third volume of im hochland comprising his ethnographic studies (including the transcriptions of cameroonian songs), and the fourth volume containing a detailed map of his area of study in cameroon with detailed annotations.37 these volumes, however, were not thorbecke’s only publications on cameroon during the time. in articles, essays, and edited volumes, thorbecke drew on his wealth of data from his expeditions. possibly defending his choice to stick with his research subject, he tried to make a virtue out of necessity: “only when we have brought order to today’s store of knowledge,” thorbecke wrote in 1927, “can science progress further.”38 what he did to bring order to the information he had gathered in africa, however, was not guided by an interest in finding the overarching laws or                                                                                                 34 thorbecke, im hochland von mittel-kamerun: die reise: eindrücke und beobachtungen. 35 franz thorbecke, im hochland von mittel-kamerun: anthropogeographie des ost-mbamlandes, vol. 2, 4 vols. (hamburg: friederichsen, 1916). 36 thorbecke, 2:vii. 37 franz thorbecke, im hochland von mittel-kamerun: beiträge zur völkerkunde des ost-mbamlandes, vol. 3, 4 vols. (hamburg: friederichsen, 1919); franz thorbecke, im hochland von mittel-kamerun: die karte des ostmbamlandes nach den aufnahmen der expedition, vol. 4, pt. 1, 4 vols. (hamburg: friederichsen, 1924). 38 thorbecke, “klima und oberflächenformen: die stellung des problems,” 1. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 155 regularities behind the recorded phenomena and data, but rather in line with the main approach of german regional geography of the time, described by ute wardenga as “attempt[ing] to record even the smallest areas as unique and unmistakeable [sic!] entities.”39 thorbecke, however, did not simply call for a narrow focus on the particular region and its characteristics. instead, he argued that only knowledge of many different regions and climate zones could lead to the recognition of the particular characteristics that made a landscape singular and unique. in thorbecke’s view, colonial – and thus geographically expansive – science was thus necessary for identifying the ontological extent of distinct, small-scale landscapes. this was a different take on kleinklimatologie than deborah coen has described in her work on interwar austria, as thorbecke was not content to view the now smaller germany as a sufficient field for climatology, but argued for the necessity of the overseas field and hoped for a return to colonial glory.40 in his own words: if today there are still vast areas of tropical africa that await geographical investigation, both official and private initiatives in the german colonies in africa have provided us with such an expansion and consolidation of geographical knowledge, that from the infinity of enormous spaces we can separate an everlarger number of singular landscapes, which, after all – and notwithstanding their obvious classification as part of a major geographic region [großlandschaft] – exhibit only their own particular characteristics, which mark them as special geographic areas [länderkundliche sondergebiete], as geographic individuals in the spirit of [carl] ritter, which remains valid today.41 together with alexander von humboldt, carl ritter (1779-1859), whom thorbecke referred to approvingly, was one of the almost mythical progenitors of academic geography.42 he became the first professor of geography in germany in 1820 and influenced the direction of the field through his 21-volume magnum opus, in which he described his vision of a unifying                                                                                                 39 wardenga, “defining geography,” 143. 40 deborah r. coen, “scaling down: the ‘austrian’ climate between empire and republic,” in intimate universality: local and global themes in the history of weather and climate, ed. james rodger fleming, vladimir jankovic, and deborah r. coen (sagamore beach, ma: science history publications, 2006), 115–40. 41 franz thorbecke, “die inselberg-landschaft von nord-tikar,” in zwölf länderkundliche studien von schülern alfred hettners ihrem lehrer zum 60. geburtstag (breslau: f. hirt, 1921), 215 [my translation]. 42 on ritter, see: andreas schach, carl ritter (1779-1859): naturphilosophie und geographie: erkenntnistheoretische überlegungen, reform der geographie und mögliche heutige implikationen (münster: lit, 1996); walter e. boettcher, “carl ritter’s early geographic thought, 1779-1817” (university college london, 1991); manfred büttner, carl ritter: zur europäisch-amerikanischen geographie an der wende vom 18. zum 19. jahrhundert (paderborn: schöningh, 1980). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 156 methodology.43 while this is not the place to expound on ritter’s system, thorbecke picked up on his predecessor’s emphasis on both an anthropocentric vision of geography that put humans at the center of geographical investigation, and the importance of studying each particular region of the earth in its own right. for thorbecke’s treatment of climate, this meant that the emphasis was not on the borderless atmosphere, but rather on the surface of the earth, structured and divided by physical configurations, such as streams, mountains, and deserts. thorbecke was thus clearly not in tune with the emergent field of dynamic meteorology and its emphasis of physical-mathematical models of the atmosphere. indeed, he never showed any awareness of these new approaches and instead continued to see climatology as a subfield of geography. but thorbecke’s approach was still “dynamic” in its own right. contrary to the caricature of nineteenth-century climatology as a purely statistical endeavor obsessed with averages and means, thorbecke’s approach assumed that atmospheric phenomena could alter physical conditions and vice versa. in his work on the morphological effects of the climate, thorbecke listed actions from “mechanical weathering” to “chemical decomposition” that could alter the morphology of a landscape. 44 this dynamic dimension of climate in thorbecke’s writings, however, always remained telluric, or earthbound and grounded. it remained connected to the particular, regional landschaft, or landscape, while at the same time requiring knowledge of landscapes all around the globe as vital points of reference. concluding remarks in his recent study on field science in the american west around the turn of the twentieth century, jeremy vetter argues that in contrast to the laboratory, which derived significant scientific authority from its claim to placeand time-less universality, the field tended to remain entrenched in its particular geographical context. by and large, field scientists were thus not aiming to discover the universal laws of nature, but rather sought to explore, examine, and record a specific place with all its particularities in great detail – using not only instruments and numerical data tables, but also direct sensory experience and qualitative descriptions. 45 thorbecke’s climate studies during the interwar years fit this mold quite well: rather than looking for the general mechanisms behind meteorological phenomena and their effects, he focused on                                                                                                 43 the rather unwieldy title of the work is erdkunde im verhältniß zur natur und zur geschichte des menschen, oder allgemeine, vergleichende geographie, als sichere grundlage des studiums und unterrichts in physicalischen und historischen wissenschaften. 44 franz thorbecke, “der formenschatz im periodisch trocknen tropenklima mit überwiegender regenzeit,” in morphologie der klimazonen, ed. franz thorbecke (breslau: f. hirt, 1927), 10–19. 45 jeremy vetter, field life: science in the american west during the railroad era (pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press, 2016). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 157 particular climatic conditions and their reciprocal interactions with the physical features of a particular place to identify singular landscapes and regions. and yet, thorbecke’s emphasis on the uniqueness of particular places was not simply a “local,” but also a “global” endeavor: only by the painstaking work of taking stock and identifying all the singular landscapes around the world could each landscape’s uniqueness be determined conclusively against a comparative framework. with each new landscape explored, described, and analyzed, the comparative framework would expand and thus lead to the growth of geographic knowledge in general. while the ultimate end product of this process could conceivably be an inductively produced theory (and thorbecke hinted at that in his writings), the time had not yet come, as knowledge about many parts of the earth was still incomplete and insufficient. here, thorbecke remained one step shy of his austrian contemporary and colleague heinrich von ficker, who – with a similar background in geography and an analogous predilection for particular places – was open to careful generalizations and even considered the implications of his findings in the context of the general circulation of the atmosphere.46 for thorbecke, in contrast, the focus of climatology had to remain on collecting both quantitative and qualitative information from around the world to classify landscapes and identify new and possibly unique phenomena. and yet, by putting the single region into a comparative framework containing, in the best of cases, the whole assembly of regions around the globe, thorbecke avoided another iteration of what the geographer david livingstone calls the “regionalizing ritual” prevalent among german geographers around the turn of the century, which could so easily result in an unscientific regional impressionism.47 it is difficult and possibly misleading, however, to neatly separate thorbecke’s scientific endeavors from his political motivations. both his approach to climatology and meteorology as auxiliary disciplines to the overarching and multifaceted discipline of colonial geography, and his conception of a regional, comparative geography, also harmonized nicely with his view of the need for colonies, which could be studied as well-defined units of analysis. rather than using or even addressing new approaches in meteorology that relied more on physical-mathematical models of the borderless atmosphere than the observations of field scientists, thorbecke defended the importance of the single colonial region whose borders were clear and geographically demarcated. the field whose loss he so lamented was thus scientific and political at the same time. as thorbecke’s case also shows, scientific work in the colonies, which extended the scientific field beyond europe, did not automatically or necessarily lead to a more global vision, or more concretely, a vision that transcended borders and increased the scale to larger                                                                                                 46 see: deborah r. coen, “imperial climatographies from tyrol to turkestan,” osiris 26 (2011): 45–65. 47 david n. livingstone, the geographical tradition: episodes in the history of a contested enterprise (oxford, uk: blackwell publishers, 1993), 260–303. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 158 geographical entities.48 while the data collected in the colonial field surely aided in global visions and visualizations of natural phenomena such as weather systems or concepts of global circulation, colonial fieldwork and postcolonial longing to regain the overseas field could also lead to a strengthening of the regionalist impulse in meteorology and climatology as practiced by thorbecke and many of his german colleagues.                                                                                                 48 cf.: paul n. edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism,” osiris, 2nd series, 21 (january 1, 2006): 229– 50; paul n. edwards, a vast machine: computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming (cambridge: mit press, 2010). corresponding author(s) xiao liu, tsinghua university, xl128@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn the development and application of marine meteorology in china: a case study of dinghai meteorological station, 1930s1940s xiao liu introduction to understand the history of meteorology during the era of the republic of china (1912-1949), the significance of meteorological stations cannot be ignored, as they formed the indispensable infrastructure for meteorological progress. the dinghai meteorological station (定海测候所 , hereafter dms) was established in 1936 in the eastern coast of zhejiang province. compared to previous studies,1 this article argues that the dms case demonstrates how meteorology could be applied locally in a developing country and the challenges it faced. the inputs of western scientific knowledge since the 16th century had catalysed myriad transformations across china, and the ocean concept was accordingly evolving. for instance, figures such as the politician liang qichao (梁启超, 1873-1929) and the industrialist zhang jian (张謇, 1853-1926) valued the role of the ocean, advocating for the advancement of the marine economy, protection of maritime rights, and the establishment of a chinese navy.2 the emphasis on this aspect was closely related to the military failure of china in the late qing dynasty, and the attention of intellectuals to the issue of sea power had also led to multiple 1 kevin p. mackeown, early china coast meteorology: the role of hong kong (hong kong university press, 2010). fiona williamson, “just doing their job: the hidden meteorologists of colonial hong kong c.1883–1914,” the british journal for the history of science 54, no. 3 (2021): 341-359. 2 peng song 彭松, “梁启超与近代中国海洋意识的发展[liang qichao and the development of maritime consciousness in modern china],” research on chinese literature (2019): 146-55. see also lin bin 林彬, “张謇海洋观的演变与内涵研究 [research on the evolution and connotation of zhang jian's ocean concept],” maritime education research 39, no. 03 (2021): 37-45. mailto:xl128@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn history of meteorology 12 (2025) 2 related articles being published in chinese journals in the early 20th century. 3 however, compared to military and commercial aspects, advancing these areas of oceanic activity required more in-depth scientific research and perspectives. thus, this article chooses marine meteorology, ‘a subfield of meteorology, dealing with the weather and climate as well as the associated oceanographic conditions in marine, island, and coastal environments.’4 during the republic of china period, the development of marine science included research on marine meteorology. through harnessing insights garnered from meteorological observations to acquire marine knowledge, meteorological stations could bolster the advancement of fisheries and shipping industries. therefore, the study of dms explains the localization process of marine meteorology introduced from western countries. regarding meteorological history in china, extensive studies are underway concerning chinese meteorological stations, with attention focused mainly towards those established by foreign nations, exemplified by the zikawei observatory (徐家汇观象台) in shanghai and the hong kong royal observatory. for instance, in his examination of the hong kong royal observatory, kevin mackeown elucidated how meteorology, as a scientific discipline, evolved within the british colony to provide weather forecasts for local inhabitants and governing bodies.5 lewis pyenson has investigated the zikawei observatory illustrating how french scientific achievements enhanced french cultural influence in east asia.6 wu yan employed the concept of ‘laboratory of the world’ to comprehend the role of zikawei observatory, elucidating that it gathers local meteorological data to contribute to the advancement of modern scientific knowledge systems in europe.7 nonetheless, scant detailed inquiries exist regarding the establishment of local meteorological stations under direct chinese influence during the republic of china. to some extent, this article argues that these local meteorological stations could also be viewed as laboratories for promoting domestic scientific development. clark alejandrino’s study recounted the establishment of an observatory in canton in the 1930s, exploring its role in bolstering china’s sovereignty by providing local meteorological data and diminishing the influence of foreign meteorological observatories.8 fu gang paid attention to the qingdao observatory, meteorologists jiang bingran (蒋炳然) and wang binhua (王彬华 ), explaining how they developed marine meteorology during the twentieth century.9 however, the story of qingdao observatory could not fully cover the history of marine meteorology 3 yuan bo 袁博, “困境中前行:近代中国国民海洋观念的觉醒与深化 [advancing amidst difficulties: the awakening and deepening of modern chinese citizens' maritime awareness],” journal of qiqihar university (phi & soc sci) 01 (2022): 126-130. 4 l. xie, b. liu, “marine meteorology,” in encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences, second edition, ed. gerald r. north, john pyle and fuqing zhang (academic press, 2015), 287-292. 5 mackeown, early china coast meteorology, 27-54. 6 lewis pyenson, civilizing mission: exact sciences and french overseas expansion, 1830-1940 (johns hopkins university press, 1993), 157-206. 7 wu yan 吴燕, 科学、利益与欧洲扩张——近代欧洲科学地域扩张背景下的徐家汇观象台（1873-1950),[science, interest and expansion of europe: zikawei observatory (1873-1950) in the context of the territorial expansion of european modern science] (beijing: china social sciences press, 2013). 8 clark l. alejandrino, “weathering history: storms, state, and society in south china since the fifth century ce” (phd diss., georgetown university, 2019), 166-74. 9 fu gang 傅刚, “推动中国海洋气象学发展的两位大师——第ⅰ部分：蒋丙然的故事 [two masters who promoted the development of marine meteorology in china part i: the story of jiang bingran],” advances in meteorological science and technology 14, no.2 (2024): 56-59. see also fu gang, “推动中国海洋气象学发展的两位大师——第 ii 部分：王彬 华的故事 [two masters who promoted the development of marine meteorology in china part ii: the story of wang binhua],” advances in meteorological science and technology 14, no. 3 (2024): 40-45. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 3 during the republic of china, thus this article focuses on the dms with emphasizing its application in the fishing industry. the first half of the 20th century saw accelerated advancements in meteorological research across asia, a phenomenon driven primarily by growing social demands for weather services. this development manifested in region-specific initiatives: in south asia, the indian meteorological department applied statistical meteorological cartography for monsoon prediction in the early twentieth century, while the manila observatory in the philippines maintained its typhoon warning service since late nineteenth century and actively sought collaboration with hong kong through telegraphic networks. 10 accordingly, this study employs archival materials and newspapers to conduct a micro-historical examination of the dinghai meteorological station, aiming to reconstruct comprehensively the process of its establishment and its operational functions. the creation of this station transcended the domain of pure meteorological advancement, highlighting the role that meteorology assumed in the development of multifaceted industrial sectors. broadly, this article delineated the constituencies engaged in knowledge construction and the pragmatic application of acquired knowledge, whilst probing the instrumental role of scientific infrastructures in knowledge dissemination. dealing with typhoons during the early development of modern meteorology in china, investigations into marine meteorology were aimed at mitigating cyclonic systems, particularly typhoons, emanating from the northwest pacific. according to the information provided by world meteorological organization, a tropical cyclone, such as typhoon, ‘is a rapidly rotating storm that begins over tropical oceans, viewed as the second-most dangerous natural hazards, after earthquakes.’11 owing to the profound repercussions of typhoons on coastal municipalities and maritime vessels along the southeastern coast, resilience against extreme weather phenomena emerged as a paramount impetus driving meteorological advancements in china at the turn of the twentieth century. in 1869, chinese maritime customs initiated a plan to establish a meteorological network along coastal and riverine regions. this endeavour aimed to ensure the safety of maritime navigation by furnishing meteorological information and typhoon warnings to passing vessels.12 meteorological observation was regarded as one of the five fundamental maritime services of the chinese maritime customs. however, in 1879, shanghai was struck by a typhoon, resulting in substantial economic losses to the shipping industry before the completion of the meteorological network.13 subsequently, under the leadership of robert hart, maritime customs collaborated with the zikawei observatory to deliver marine meteorological services. the zikawei observatory was expanded into a two-story building, with the establishment of a navigation service department. moreover, lighthouses and weather stations set up by maritime customs facilitated the collection of meteorological data, contributing to typhoon research at the zikawei observatory.14 although these observational sites were mainly located in coastal areas, the meteorological indices they collected were not 10 james beattie, “climate change, forest conservation and science: a case study of new zealand, 1860s-1920,” history of meteorology 5 (2009): 35-52. see also marlon zhu, “media, typhoons, and contests over meteorological sovereignty in nineteenth-century east asia,” history of meteorology 9 (2020): 1-13. 11 “tropical cyclone”, world meteorological organization, accessed january 3, 2025, https://wmo.int/topics/tropical-cyclone. 12 robert bickers, “throwing light on natural laws: meteorology on the china coast, 1869–1912,” in treaty ports in modern china: law, land and power, ed. robert bickers and isabella jackson (routledge, 2016), 180-94. 13 wu zengxiang 吴增祥,中国近代气象台站 [meteorological stations in modern china] (qixiang press, 2007), 24. 14 wang hao 王皓, “徐家汇观象台与近代中国气象学[the observatory of zikawei and meteorology in modern china],” academic monthly 49, no. 9 (2017): 171-84. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 4 much different from inland meteorological stations, encompassing air pressure, air temperature, rainfall, wind direction, and weather conditions. the only ocean-related observation at the time pertained to oceanic wave types, which was further constrained by the absence of wave measurement equipment and relied on observers’ subjective discernment.15 the zikawei observatory continue to make further strides in dealing with typhoons. on 1 september 1884, the gutzlaff signal tower was officially established, providing timekeeping and meteorological signals to ships in the vicinity of shanghai. following the establishment of the republic of china, in 1914 the public administration of the french concession in shanghai established a radio station to broaden its service spectrum by disseminating radio notifications of weather conditions. 16 in light of this, chinese meteorologists also contributed to this field, aiming to demonstrate china’s domestic meteorological research capabilities. in 1925, jiang bingran, the director of qingdao observatory, published his article titled ‘a record of typhoons in the shandong peninsula ( 山东半岛飓风记)’, which was regarded as the first article on typhoon research found in chinese academic journal. 17 nonetheless, research on extreme weather and marine meteorology should also be paid great attention to the target audience of its services, which varies across different coastal regions in china. attention to marine meteorology with the establishment of the national government by the guomindang party in 1927, the institute of meteorology at the academia sinica (中央研究院气象研究所, hereafter imas) was established as china’s official meteorological institution. this institutionalisation underscored the nation’s heightened demand for meteorological information, including marine meteorology. in 1928, the qingdao observatory inaugurated the department of marine science, marking china’s pioneering venture into specialised marine research. song chunfang (宋春舫 , 1892-1938), the head of the department of marine science and a playwright, developed an interest in oceanography during his visit to france and subsequently began researching it. 18 under his supervision, the department investigated on oceanic current exploration, seawater analysis, and marine product surveys, thus laying the foundation for marine research in china.19 nevertheless, owing to a sovereignty dispute between china and japan regarding the ownership of qingdao observatory, coupled with qingdao’s geographical positioning, opportunities for further advancement in marine research along the south-eastern coast were not immediately taken.20 the chinese naval ministry also played an important role in developments. in 1929, the imas corresponded with the department of seaway guard in the naval ministry (海军部 海道巡防处 , hereafter dsgnm). for the expediency of military operations, the naval 15 wu zengxiang, meteorological stations in modern china, 34-36. 16 shu jiaxin 束家鑫 and jiang delong 蒋德隆, eds., 上海气象志[shanghai meteorological chronicles] (shanghai academy of social sciences press, 1997). 17 fu gang, “two masters who promoted the development of marine meteorology in china part i: the story of jiang bingran,” 58-59. 18 ren haojie 任豪杰, “近代青岛观象台研究(1922—1937) [research on qingdao observatory in modern times (1922— 1937)],” (master diss., qingdao university, 2024), 59-92. 19 ‘为测验海洋增设海洋科造具预算书请鉴核的呈 [application for review about budget for adding tools for investigating the ocean by the department of marine science]’, 25 december 1928: qingdao municipal archives, qingdao, b0029-001-03903-0067. 20 xiao liu, “understanding sovereignty through meteorology: china, japan, and the dispute over the qingdao observatory, 1918–1931,” annals of science 81, no. 3 (2024), 420-439. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 5 ministry established several meteorological stations under the auspices of the dsgnm. consequently, the imas asked the dsgnm to transmit their observation records to facilitate the plotting of meteorological maps and provision of weather forecasts. furthermore, historical records maintained by the dsgnm would be transcribed by the imas for research purposes. in response to the naval ministry’s directive, the dsgnm surveyed its subordinate stations, reporting “its management of the pratas observatory, in addition to warning stations in xiamen, kanmen, and shengshan. the meteorological records from these stations would be transmitted to the imas via telegram.”21 additionally, meteorological information pertaining to the far east region received by the dsgnm would be relayed to the pratas observatory, which would then disseminate this information to nearby ships to ensure navigational safety.22 however, the lack of specialised expertise in marine meteorology was an issue faced by both the qingdao observatory and the dsgnm in this period. the talent issue was partly resolved in the early 1930s with the emergence of lü jiong (吕炯), a distinguished meteorologist who played a pivotal role in marine meteorology during the republic of china. after graduating from the department of geosciences of national southeast university (国立东南大学 ), in the late 1920s lü became one of the few meteorological personnel in china with a college background. it appears that lü garnered recognition from his former teacher, meteorologist zhu kezhen (竺可桢) who held the position of director of the imas, leading to his appointment as a general researcher at the imas from 1928.23 nonetheless, mere attainment of a university education did not suffice for conducting high-level meteorological research. therefore, lü jiong was dispatched to germany for further academic pursuits. it seems that in the early twentieth century, dispatching meteorological personnel to germany for learning advanced knowledge was valued by east asian countries. since 1911, the japanese meteorologist wasaburo ooishi also worked for two years at the lindenberg aerological observatory in germany.24 lü’s overseas study was fully funded by the imas, showing that the institute attached great importance to training meteorological researchers.25 further, the areas of study pursued by lü jiong mirrored the wider aspirations for chinese meteorological progress. from 1930 to 1934, lü successively studied subjects including climatology, oceanography, geology and agricultural meteorology at berlin university and hamburg university. these were all areas which were weak links in chinese meteorological expertise. unlike his predecessors, who had autonomy in selecting their majors, lü jiong was directed to pursue studies abroad with a clear mandate to advance chinese meteorology.26 the importance of marine meteorological information could also be recognised in the competition for certain rights between different countries, such as in the field of telecommunications. when the zikawei observatory developed typhoon research and provided warning alerts to the surrounding area, french officials constructed a radio station in the 21 letter from academia sinica to the department of seaway guard 海道巡防处, 2 march 1929: archives of institute of modern history, academia sinica (hereafter ‘aimhas’), taipei, 393/07/01/03/015. 22 letter from academia sinica to the department of seaway guard 海道巡防处, 2 march 1929: aimhas, 393/07/01/03/015. 23 zhu kezhen 竺可桢, 钦天山气象台落成纪念刊 [qintianshan meteorological observatory memorial] (institute of meteorology, academia sinica, 1929), 6. 24 john m. lewis, “ooishi's observation: viewed in the context of jet stream discovery,” bulletin of the american meteorological society 83, no. 3 (2003): 357-369. 25 letter from zhou bin 周斌 to the imas about lü jiong’s assignment to germany for studying, 9 january 1934: the second historical archives of china, (hereafter ‘shac’), nanjing, 393/128. 26 letter from zhou bin to the imas about lü jiong’s assignment to germany for studying, 9 january 1934: shac, 393/128. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 6 shanghai concession to access meteorological data from the zikawei observatory and transmit it via telegram. in 1933, the shanghai coast radio station (hereafter scrs) remarked that, …with the cessation of commercial telegram transmissions by the french radio station, the scrs could assume a more prominent role than before. efforts should be directed towards enhancing the broadcasting of weather information. only thus can the french radio station’s reputation be challenged, leading ships from various nations to gradually shift their focus away from the station, ultimately enabling the scrs to supplant it.27 in response, the imas instructed its subordinate meteorological stations to provide timely daily observation records to the scrs, whilst treating with caution the possibility of sharing this meteorological data with the zikawei observatory. in addition, the imas asserted its advantage in furnishing more precise and comprehensive meteorological information to the scrs.28 given the persistent demand for meteorological data, establishing a marine-oriented meteorological station emerged as a priority in china’s meteorological agenda, thus prompting the planning of the dinghai meteorological station. the plan for constructing the dinghai meteorological station in may 1934, the zhejiang provincial government in eastern china convened a conference aimed at revitalising the rural economy, during which it was decided to establish a weather station in dinghai county. to receive professional assistance, the zhejiang provincial government contacted the imas and such planning was passed to zhu kehzen.29 in 1935, the imas proposed a plan to establish the dinghai meteorological station to the department of construction of zhejiang province (浙江省建设厅，hereafter dczp). according to the letter, the imas stressed that: “typhoons routinely sweep the coast of zhejiang province, causing significant losses to coastal fisheries. hence, to safeguard fisheries development, it is imperative to establish meteorological stations to provide meteorological warnings.”30 drawing on this letter, it is apparent that the plan was for the dms to serve the fishing industry. while the eastern region of china boasts a lengthy coastline, the foremost factor in selecting a site for a marine meteorological station may not solely hinge on scientific considerations but also on such economic factors. during the republic of china era, the economic development of zhejiang province was relatively robust compared to other regions in the country.31 renowned for its commercial tradition, zhejiang province boasted a thriving fishing industry, which constituted a vital economic sector. the zhoushan fishing ground (舟 山渔场), located in dinghai county, was the largest fishing ground in china. by 1931, nearly 70% of the people in dinghai were employed in fishing and salt production.32 due to a vast coastline as well as an extensive river and lake system in china, fishing had long been an 27 letters from international telecommunication bureau 国际电信局 to the academia sinica, 22 september 1933: aimhas, 393/07/01/03/014. 28 letters from imas to the academia sinica, 26 september 1933: aimhas, 393/07/01/03/014. 29 hu ruiqi 胡瑞琪, “你们可知舟山普陀青龙山上“风雨表”的故事?[ do you know the story of the barometer on qinglong mountain in putuo, zhoushan],” zheli zhoushan, accessed january 6, 2025, https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?biz=mzi5njazntc1ma==&mid=2650716539&idx=2&sn=c8124f42880041084d42da341e1a5 2ff&chksm=f4406db2c337e4a41e59441068e5e27ced89ad705e473a69014a54c65b6a909bb2d06ec7440b&scene=27. 30 letters from the zhongyang yanjiuyuan 中央研究院 [academia sinica] to the zhejiangsheng zhengfu 浙江省政府 [zhejiang provincial government], 11 february 1935: aimhas, 393/07/03/04/009. 31 jiang hong 江宏 , “近代浙商与浙江经济的近代化 (1890-1930) [zhejiang merchants in modern china and the modernization of zhejiang economy (1890-1930)],” (phd diss., shanghai university of finance and economics, 2022), 21115. 32 lin yanyi 林彦亦, gong minli 宫敏丽 and lu lijuan 芦立娟, “浅谈近代舟山海洋渔业的发展情况 [discussion on the development of modern zhoushan marine fishery],” nongcun jingji yukeji 农村经济与科技 28, no. 13 (2017): 78-80. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 7 important economic activity and played a significant part in generating national taxes. consequently, during the republican era, the state accorded considerable importance to the development of fisheries to bolster tax revenues. overseas-trained chinese fisheries experts believed that reasonable and scientific management could improve the efficiency of resource development. these assumptions were based on the idea that applied science and technological expertise could maximise the utility of the environment. 33 however, such endeavours might entail significant environmental repercussions. interventions in the environment to reap benefits necessitated grappling with environmental threats, including natural disasters, wherein meteorology assumed a pivotal role. it is noteworthy that the impact of natural disasters on fisheries extended beyond the disruption of fishery production and endangerment of fishermen’s lives to encompass the sustainable development of fisheries. following natural disasters in the 1920s that ravaged taizhou and wenzhou in zhejiang province, affected communities transitioned from net fishing to cage fishing—a lucrative yet unsustainable technology—to supplement their income.34 as a result, applying meteorological insights to mitigate the impacts of disasters became a focal point for zhejiang officials. since 1880, pre-existing marine meteorological observations had been underway in zhejiang province, with chinese maritime customs erecting four island lighthouses for weather monitoring, located at mount daji, mount huaniao, mount xiaomian, and mount beiyu. these observational outposts conducted rudimentary marine meteorological observations, including atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind direction and strength among other weather conditions. in addition to weather reporting, they also hoisted coastal typhoon warning signals and strong wind forecast signals. 35 however, the meteorological service quality rendered by these lighthouses was inadequate, and the zhoushan islands were often hit by typhoons in summer and autumn, causing huge losses to fishermen; a professional marine meteorological station was required. the establishment of the dms was a collaborative effort involving the zhejiang province water conservancy bureau (浙江省水利局，hereafter zpwcb), the imas, the dinghai county government, and the fishing industry itself. it is noteworthy that both the local government and the populace assumed substantial financial burdens, a practice less common in scientific infrastructure development in western nations. for instance, it was the us weather bureau, as the central meteorological agency, that spearheaded the establishment of a meteorological network to disseminate early tornado warnings,36 whereas the case of the dms proved that construction required joint efforts. following this joint establishment model, the imas assumed responsibility for instrument provision, while the zpwcb furnished the requisite land. in order to maintain the normal operation of the station, the imas also agreed to contribute one-third of the regular fee of 300 yuan per month.37 despite this, funding emerged as a prevalent challenge in the construction of meteorological stations during the republican era, which was mirrored at the dms as well. according to the plan of dczp, the total funds needed for preparing a meteorological station 33 micah s. muscolino, fishing wars and environmental change in late imperial and modern china (harvard university press, 2009), 8. 34 muscolino, fishing wars and environmental change in late imperial and modern china, 148-49. 35 zhejiang provincial meteorological bureau 浙江省气象局, “浙江近代的气象工作 [meteorological affairs in zhejiang province in modern times],” in 中国近代气象史资料 [resources for meteorological history in china], ed. editorial committee of modern meteorological resource in china 中国近代气象史资料编委会 (qixiang press, 1995), 117-18. 36 nancy mathis, storm warning: the story of a killer tornado (touchstone, 2007), 40-59. 37 letters from zhejiangsheng jiansheting 浙江省建设厅 [dczp] to the academia sinica, 11 march 1935: aimhas, 393/07/03/04/009. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 8 amounted to approximately 20,000 yuan. despite the imas’s commitment to equipment provision, an additional 10,000 yuan was still needed.38 subsequently, for the dms plan to work, the zhejiang provincial government asked coastal county governments, alongside the fishing industry, to shoulder the financial burden. the zpwcb even published investment and bidding advertisements for the construction of dms housing in newspapers. it shows that: experienced individuals involved in construction projects may remit a fee of two yuan to the department of factory affairs within the hangzhou water conservancy bureau to obtain necessary charts and forms outlining bidding regulations. following on-site assessments, a deposit of 400 yuan is requisite to the zpwcb, enabling participation in the bidding process at the dczp. the outcome will be publicly disclosed at the zpwcb on 30 april at 2pm.39 this endeavour seemingly failed to attract interest from potential bidders, prompting the zpwcb to extend the bidding deadline. ultimately, a shanghai company named wangsenji (汪森记) undertook the construction project at a cost of 8,900 yuan, significantly below the company’s initial offer of 15,000 yuan. given that nearby county governments and the fishing community would be the direct beneficiaries of the dms, it was deemed reasonable for them to bear some of the expenses. the fishermen in zhejiang province had a tradition of providing financial backing for official infrastructure projects. seeking to bolster their influence, fishermen often established fishing lodge organisations to advocate for their interests in local politics and economics. these organisations facilitated dialogue between fishermen and officials regarding marine resource allocation, while also serving as channels for officials to access financial revenue from fishing enterprises. consequently, funding government construction projects bolstered the legitimacy of fishing lodge organizations. 40 however, the feasibility of implementing this policy warranted scrutiny, as these organizations might be reluctant to shoulder the substantial expenses associated with modern scientific infrastructure, potentially hindering funding efforts. in the case of the dms, it is plausible that the fishing industry could face pressure from local authorities, given that their fishing status necessitated official recognition. furthermore, county governments might find themselves compelled to comply with the central government’s administrative directives, thereby obliging them to provide financial backing. through negotiation, the local representative of the fishing enterprises, liu jiting (刘寄亭), acquired three steel-reinforced concrete bungalows and a hut near the proposed dms site, serving as residences for the station builders. the local fishermen also contributed a budget of 1,000 yuan, comprised of two yuan levied from each large fishing boat, with the owner and tenant each paying half.41 in addition, the county government allocated 4,000 yuan from local construction funds to cover the expenses of radio sets and signals.42 however, several challenges impeded progress. initially, the zpwcb was tasked with covering 200 yuan of the 300-yuan monthly fee, but budget constraints rendered the zpwcb unable to fulfil its obligation. zhu kezhen even asked huang shaohong (黄绍竑 ), the president of zhejiang province, to provide 38 letters from zhejiangsheng jiansheting 浙江省建设厅 [dczp] to the academia sinica, 11 march 1935: aimhas, 393/07/03/04/009. 39 “浙江省水利局建筑定海测候所房屋工程继续招商投标广告[advertisement on the extending of bidding for the housing project of dinghai meteorological station by the zpwcb]”, xinwen bao 新闻报, 17 april 1936, 3. 40 muscolino, fishing wars and environmental change in late imperial and modern china, 61-62. 41 hu ruiqi, “do you know the story of the barometer on qinglong mountain in putuo, zhoushan”. 42 letters from zhejiangsheng jiansheting 浙江省建设厅 [dczp] to the academia sinica, 12 april 1935: aimhas, 393/07/03/04/009. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 9 assistance in funding, but it seems that the request was either rejected or just ignored by shaohong.43 moreover, funds raised from the fishing industry fell short. consequently, the imas had to utilise interim funds to supplement the nine-month expenses from july 1935 to march 1936, ensuring the timely completion of construction.44 as has been discussed, lü jiong’s role in promoting the dms bears further analysis. as one of the few chinese experts in marine meteorology at that time, lü was dispatched to dinghai to conduct on-site investigations during the site selection process. based on his judgement, heye bay in shenjiamen (fig. 1) was chosen for its advantageous location atop high ground overlooking the sea, facilitating weather observation and communication with local fishing vessels.45 the piece of land for the station was purchased at liu jiting’s expense. more importantly, with zhu kezhen appointed as the president of zhejiang university in march 1936, lü jiong took the position as the acting director of imas. accordingly, lü also participated in the appointment of personnel for the dms, hence technical personnel from the disbanded shanghai meteorological observatory were deployed, with wang guoai appointed as the director.46 fig. 1. zhejiang province and the dms source: adapted from “map of zhejiang province”, accessed january 20, 2025, http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/browse.html?picid=%224o28b0625501ad13015501ad2bfc0229%2 2. 43 “letters from zhu kezhen to huang shaohong, 25 january 1936,” in 蔡元培论科学与技术[cai yuanpei’s discussion of science and technology], ed. gao pingshu (hebei science & technology press, 1985), 287. 44 “定海设立测候所[meteorological station set up in dinghai],” shanghaishi shuichan jingji yuekan 上海市水产经济月刊 5, no. 3(1936): 8. 45 letters from the academia sinica to zhejiangsheng jiansheting 浙江省建设厅 [dczp], 24 april 1935: aimhas, 393/07/03/04/009. 46 zhejiang provincial meteorological bureau, “zhejiang jindai de qixiang gongzuo,” 118. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 10 upon the station’s establishment, the imas conducted project quality assessments. in october of 1936, the imas dispatched jin yongshen (金詠深), along with xu jiaxuan (徐家 谖) from the dczp and technician wu pinfu (吴品福) of the dinghai county government to shenjiamen to inspect the project. following the investigation, it was determined that the project was not yet fully operational, necessitating the addition of three additional buildings behind the station to serve as service rooms, a kitchen, and a machinery room.47 hence, after two months of construction work, the dms was officially established and put into operation on new year’s day of 1937. equipped with a shortwave radio station, the dms could communicate with other radio stations such as dinghai, daishan, qushan, putuo, and jintang to provide weather reports. subsequently, meteorological services were provided to local fishermen during the day via flags and at night via light bulbs. additionally, plans were made to establish a marine biology research institute adjacent to the station, to be undertaken by the institute of zoology and botany of the academia sinica, however it failed to be established due to the second world war.48 in contrast to other meteorological stations, it appears that the dms’s construction plan exhibited a more deliberate approach, with a focus on fostering the development of fisheries in zhejiang province. this inclination also reflects the evolving maturity of scientific institutions in the republic of china regarding designated scientific planning. later, for administrative efficiency, the responsibility for the dms was transferred to the imas. neither the imas nor the zhejiang provincial government had previously established a dedicated meteorological alarm system for this region, rendering the dms, to some extent, a proving ground for typhoon warning methodologies. 49 moreover, to ensure the acquisition of precise marine meteorological data, observation standards were also regulated under the auspices of the imas. in 1937, lü jiong personally engaged with the aviation administration department of the ministry of transportation to address this matter. at the time, ships did not accord significant importance to seawater thermometers or value the instruments provided by the imas. hence, the observational instruments aboard ships operated by the china merchants steam navigation company (轮船招商局, hereafter cmsnc) were rudimentary and antiquated, necessitating the integration of new equipment such as marine-use mercury barometers. additionally, the recorded values from these instruments were markedly inaccurate, with many remaining uncalibrated. consequently, communications between the ships and the imas met with difficulties, thus each vessel was required to send meteorological information twice a day to the cmsnc, which then relayed it to the imas. the imas would also compile and distribute the “marine meteorological observation manual (海上气象观测说明书)” to each vessel. given the generally low educational attainment among crew members, senior personnel such as chief officers, second officers, and third officers required training by the imas to ensure accurate recording of meteorological observations.50 these ships, to some extent, assisted the dms in collecting meteorological data in the waters adjacent to china, thereby expanding its research scope. through these efforts, it appears that the republic of china was poised to invest in advancing marine meteorology. 47 “定海测候所与海产研究所[dinghai meteorological station and institute of marine products],” kexue 科学 20, no. 12(1936): 1072. 48 “定海测候所工程告竣[the construction of dinghai meteorological station has been completed],” shuichan yuekan 水 产月刊 3, no. 11 (1936): 83. see also “dinghai meteorological station and institute of marine products”, 1072. 49 letters from the academia sinica to zhejiangsheng jiansheting 浙江省建设厅 [dczp], 6 february 1935: aimhas, 393/07/03/04/009. 50 letter from the imas to the aviation administration department of the ministry of transportation 交通部航政司, 24 april 1937: aimhas, 393/07/01/03/028. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 11 rethinking the development of marine meteorology despite the comprehensive design of the dms, its operations were interrupted because of the second world war. in august of 1937, as the japanese army attacked shanghai, zhejiang province was threatened, and wang guoai (汪国瑷) resigned in the same month on the grounds of discord with staff, although he might have been greatly affected personally by the war. afterwards, the dms did not maintain basic observations for a long time until occupied by japan in june 1939.51 moreover, due to the delay caused by wu yonggeng (吴永 庚), the succeeding director of the dms, the instruments could not be relocated to secured zones prior to the japanese military occupation, leading to zhu kezhen's extreme dissatisfaction towards this issue.52 it seems that the national government lost control over most coastal areas during the wartime, but the chinese meteorological community had recognised the significance of marine meteorology and pondered its developmental trajectory. in july of 1942, the imas submitted several contingency plans to the central planning board, the department responsible for national construction during wartime. among these, lü jiong proposed a plan titled “the establishment of marine observatory basing on oceans and national defence.”53 in this eleven-page plan, lü underscored the importance of marine meteorology and outlined detailed strategies for its future development in china. it is evident that lü acquired his marine meteorological knowledge primarily during his studies in germany, and this experience influenced his subsequent actions. he endeavoured to develop marine meteorology in china based on the german model, as reflected in the institutional setup and the use of instruments. primarily, lü investigated the significance of meteorological stations from a wartime perspective. he contended that contemporary warfare transcended terrestrial boundaries, with maritime warfare relying heavily on naval and aerial operations, wherein meteorology played a crucial role in guiding air force flights and the navigation of warships. for instance, he highlighted that the hamburg ocean observatory was under the jurisdiction of the german navy.54 in addition to wartime applications, lü expounded on the relevance of marine meteorology to the fishing industry. despite china’s coastal-dependent fishing industry, regulatory constraints and resistance to reform, coupled with fishermen’s limited knowledge, hindered its competitiveness with global peers. japan, europe, and the us had not only enhanced their fishing equipment and adopted more precise fishing techniques but were also studying other fishery-related factors. investigations encompassed seabed depth, seawater temperature at various depths, salinity analysis, tidal variations, water flow direction and velocity, seawater transparency, and plankton distribution. lü provided an example illustrating how seawater temperature influenced fish distribution, noting the prevalence of flying fish in the sea region between 40 degrees north and south in latitude due to the average summer temperature exceeding 20 degrees celsius.55 51 wen kegang 温克刚, ed.,中国气象史 [history of meteorology in china] (qixiang press, 2003), 361. 52 “zhu kezhen’s diary for 18 july 1939,” in 竺可桢全集 [the collected works of zhu kezhen], vol. 7, zhu kezhen (shanghai scientific and technological education publishing house, 2005), 125. 53 plan about ‘establishment of marine observatory basing on oceans and national defense’ sent by the imas to the central planning board 中央设计局, july 1942: aimhas, 393/07/01/03/014, pp. 1. 54 plan about ‘establishment of marine observatory basing on oceans and national defense’ sent by the imas to the central planning board, pp. 1. 55 plan about ‘establishment of marine observatory basing on oceans and national defense’ sent by the imas to the central planning board, pp. 2. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 12 emphasising the significance of marine meteorology in practical applications, lü jiong elucidated the interplay between meteorology and oceanography from an academic standpoint. with the atmosphere enveloping the sea surface, any alterations in atmospheric elements such as temperature, humidity, and weather could influence the sea surface, thereby inducing changes in temperature and salinity. conversely, fluctuations in ocean temperature and salinity could reciprocally impact the atmosphere. moreover, myriad meteorological issues often necessitated insights from oceanography to bolster research efforts. given the substantial heat capacity of seawater, fluctuations in its temperature were poised to significantly influence terrestrial climates. lü cited the research of b. helland hansen, f. nansen, and a. defant, who endeavoured to forecast crop yields in western europe based on atmospheric dynamics in the northern atlantic ocean. having previously interned at esteemed institutions such as the berlin institute of oceanography, the ocean museum, and the hamburg ocean observatory each for one year, lü was well-versed in marine sciences. consequently, he provided an overview of the organization, equipment, and operational scope of marine observatories.56 lü jiong advocated his vision for establishing marine observatories across china, proposing the establishment of five observatories spanning from south to north: huludao, qingdao, shanghai, fuzhou, and guangzhou. he suggested that shanghai be used as the central observatory, given its role in furnishing meteorological reports for naval and aerial deployments during wartime, further solidified its suitability. 57 regarding personnel, lü advocated for distinct groups within each observatory, including navigation, marine meteorology, astronomy, tides, oceanography, and marine aviation meteorology. moreover, while the focus was predominantly on marine physics, lü also proposed establishing marine biology and fisheries groups, helmed by respective experts, acknowledging the importance of incorporating biological expertise. nevertheless, given the scarcity of meteorological personnel and fund in republican china, lü had to adjust the plan and recommended prioritizing the construction of infrastructure, followed by gradual expansion in tandem with economic and talent growth. in terms of the groups lü listed, he underscored the establishment of marine meteorology and oceanography groups as top priorities. 58 furthermore, lü meticulously categorized instruments into eight classifications, detailing their names, prices, and manufacturers. while primarily designated for oceanographic and tidal groups, the cumulative cost of these instruments amounted to 70,000 german marks. lü advocated prioritizing offshore survey needs and estimated that allocating 20,000 to 30,000 yuan for marine instruments, alongside 10,000 yuan for meteorological instruments, could lay the foundation for a marine meteorological station. accounting for furniture and ancillary expenses, he recommended an initial investment of approximately 100,000 yuan, with a monthly maintenance outlay of 5,000 yuan and staffing comprising 20 members.59 it appears that lü meticulously planned for marine meteorology in china, yet there were doubts about the feasibility of implementing these plans, particularly in the post-war period. 56 plan about ‘establishment of marine observatory basing on oceans and national defense’ sent by the imas to the central planning board, pp. 3-4. 57 plan about ‘establishment of marine observatory basing on oceans and national defense’ sent by the imas to the central planning board, pp. 5. 58 plan about ‘establishment of marine observatory basing on oceans and national defense’ sent by the imas to the central planning board, pp. 6-8. 59 plan about ‘establishment of marine observatory basing on oceans and national defense’ sent by the imas to the central planning board, pp. 8-10. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 13 the post-war period of the dinghai meteorological station with japan’s defeat in the second world war, the national government reclaimed a large number of meteorological stations that were controlled by japan during the war, including the qingdao observatory and the dms. under the leadership of director wang binhua, the qingdao observatory continued to conduct research on marine meteorology, including the study of sea fog, which was an important academic contribution later on. the status of the dinghai meteorological observatory has also received further attention.60 in the summer of 1946, the zhoushan islands endured another devastating typhoon, inflicting severe losses on the fishing industry. responding to this, the marine fishery department of the jiangsu and zhejiang regions under the ministry of agriculture and forestry resolved to establish a storm warning station in the area. technician feng zikang (冯子康) was dispatched to assess conditions for a suitable location in the vicinity of the dms.61 in june 1947, the dms resumed operations, relocating to the dinghai fisheries school (定海水产学校). during the same month, when a typhoon struck the coastal regions of zhejiang and fujian provinces, the fishery bureau of zhejiang province directed its subordinate stations to alert fishing groups and hoist typhoon signals for early warning.62 it appeared that the dms promptly fulfilled its role. by the end of 1948, it was relocated to the fire god temple of dinghai under the directorship of xu jianming (许鑑明), operating under the auspices of the central meteorological bureau (中 央气象局, hereafter cmb).63 moreover, lü jiong had been the leader of the cmb since 1944, and with his support, the cmb upgraded the dms to a formal marine meteorological observatory, entailing a change in nomenclature and expanded functions. in addition to its prior duties of meteorological monitoring, the upgraded dms served as an information dissemination hub, broadcasting weather updates to ten major seaports, including shanghai, xiamen, and taipei.64 however, solely relying on the dms as the primary marine meteorological observatory for typhoon early warning might not suffice to meet coastal area demands. similar issues also happened in developed countries. alexander hall pointed out that the devastating 1953 north sea flood that ravaged britain’s eastern coastline exposed critical flaws in early warning systems. this catastrophic event proved pivotal in shaping modern disaster governance, with the subsequent official inquiry into its causes and impacts laying the foundational framework for contemporary uk flood management strategies and emergency response protocols.65 while the meteorological office in britain played a key role in the implementation of the warning system, its chinese counterpart, the cmb, assumed a comparable responsibility. recognizing the imperative of widespread meteorological information dissemination, the cmb made 60 j. m. lewis, d. koracin and k. t. redmond, “sea fog research in the united kingdom and united states (a historical essay including outlook),” bulletin of the american meteorological society 85, no. 3 (2004): 395-408. 61 “定海嵊泗列岛设暴风警报站[setting up storm warning stations on shengsi islands in dinghai],” minguo ribao 民国日 报, 12 august 1946, 5. 62 zhejiang provincial meteorological bureau, “meteorological affairs in zhejiang province in modern times”, 120. see also telegram sent by the zhejiangsheng yuye ju 浙江省渔业局 [zhejiang provincial fishery bureau], 28 june 1947: aimhas, 20/24/006/10. 63 the central meteorological bureau was founded in 1941 by the national government, which replaced the imas in managing the national meteorological cause. zhejiang provincial meteorological bureau, “meteorological affairs in zhejiang province in modern times,” 118. 64 letters from zhongyang qixiangju 中央气象局[central meteorological bureau (cmb)] to nonglinbu 农林部 [ministry of agriculture and forestry (hereafter ‘maf’)], 3 june 1947: aimhas, 20/24/006/18. 65 alexander hall, “plugging the gaps: the north sea flood of 1953 and the creation of a national coastal warning system,” journal of public management & social policy 22, no. 2 (2015). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 14 further strides in areas under the dms’s jurisdiction. in 1946, the marine fisheries supervision office of jiangsu and zhejiang regions, a subordinate body of the ministry of agriculture and forestry, proposed to set up a storm warning radio station to assist the dms’s operations.66 the efficacy of weather forecasts hinged largely on the timeliness of information dissemination. with the radio station’s support, fishermen could receive early weather warnings, affording them more time to prepare for weather-related disasters. moreover, to enhance disaster response efficiency, the ministry of agriculture and forestry stipulated in 1947 that, “all fisheries-related entities, including coastal governments, fishing associations, and fishery companies, should procure radio receivers and transmitters within a specified timeframe to access daily weather reports and storm warnings.”67 in addition, through collaboration with the national resources commission, which produced a large quantity of affordable radios, ordinary fishermen could purchase or rent radios to access weather broadcasts, enhancing their ability to cope with extreme weather.68 while the extent of implementation by other entities remains uncertain, the china fisheries corporation, a ministry of agriculture and forestry subsidiary, indeed outfitted each ship with a radio station.69 another advantage of weather stations for fisheries was proximate timing. during the republican era, ordinary fishermen often struggled to access timely meteorological information, resulting in forecast failures. therefore, a time signal was issued daily at the hangzhou meteorological station, then transmitted to each county by the radio station.70 in terms of the alarm time, the dms and telecommunication bureau established explicit regulations. according to the international radio regulations, coastal meteorological stations and ship radio stations were required to pause operations and listen for distress signals at 1518 and 45-48 minutes past each hour. additionally, a storm alarm would be broadcast every day at 12:50 and 18:50.71 such frequent broadcasting aimed to ensure the prompt receipt of early warnings. in addition to broadcasting, the monthly weather report would be sent to the fishery bureau of zhejiang province, enabling analysis of oceanic conditions.72 it indicated that the progress in timeliness and early warning systems reflected the improvement in the fishing industry. more importantly, the establishment of the dms not only provided meteorological services to fisheries, but also indirectly affected the significance of national sovereignty in fisheries. according to zhang jian, strengthening the country’s external borders required the expansion and consolidation of fishing rights. exerting control over marine fisheries was vital for safeguarding national sovereignty and fostering national prosperity.73 what was worse, in 66 letters from the jiangzhequ haiyang yuye dudaochu 江浙区海洋渔业督导处 [marine fishery supervision office of jiangsu and zhejiang regions] to nonglinbu 农林部 [maf], 16 december 1946: aimhas, 20/24/006/15. 67 letters from zhonghua shuichan gongsi 中华水产公司 [china fisheries corporation] to nonglinbu 农林部 [maf], 18 november 1947: aimhas, 20/24/006/12. 68 letters from zhonghua shuichan gongsi 中华水产公司 [china fisheries corporation] to nonglinbu 农林部 [maf], 18 november 1947: aimhas, 20/24/006/12. 69中华水产公司电台证书[radio station form of the china fisheries corporation], october 1947: aimhas, 20/24/006/12. 70 letters from the cmb to the nonglinbu 农林部 [maf], 3 june 1947: aimhas, 20/24/006/18. 71定海测候所暴风警报广播时间表 [broadcast schedule of storm warning for the dms], 1 september 1947: aimhas, 20/24/006/20. 72 telegram sent by the zhejiangsheng yuye ju 浙江省渔业局 [zhejiang provincial fishery bureau], 28 june 1947: aimhas, 20/24/006/10. 73 muscolino, fishing wars and environmental change in late imperial and modern china, 76. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 15 the 1930s japanese vessels, in violation of international law, encroached upon china’s territorial waters, imperilling china’s fishing interests and the livelihoods of zhejiang fishermen.74 thus, if the meteorological station could aid the normal operation of zhejiang’s fishing industry, it would aid in controlling fisheries in chinese waters, thereby bolstering the safety of china’s fishery resources and safeguarding territorial sea sovereignty. functioning as a marine meteorological observatory, the dms diligently recorded marine meteorological data that was previously overlooked. through the monitoring of this data, the dms gathered various metrics, including visibility, sea water temperature, and specific gravity. 75 concerning meteorological record-keeping, it indicated an ongoing enhancement in the dms’s professional calibre, especially the localization of western meteorological standards. due to the diverse chinese characters used to describe the strength of wind, wind forces were recorded in chinese characters rather than numbers by associating different chinese terms with the beaufort scale. for instance, the wei feng (微风, breeze) referred to level 3, while the he feng (和风, soft wind) referred to level 4.76 compared to earlier records, these detailed entries facilitated the acquisition of more precise information. nevertheless, challenges persisted in terminology, because thus they probably caused confusion for people who were not familiar with meteorological knowledge. drawing upon data from the dms and the qingdao observatory, china gradually established several meteorological stations along china’s coastline, marking the nascent emergence of a marine meteorological network in the late 1940s. moreover, the observed data provided basis for carrying out certain research on natural disasters in zhejiang. for example, research findings indicated that a discrepancy of over 20% between annual precipitation and the long-term average could precipitate floods or droughts. geographically, western zhejiang and the qiantang river basins were identified as the most susceptible regions based on meteorological data. 77 the above conclusion shows that the collection of meteorological information really provided help for the response to natural disasters. however, the ramifications of political and social upheaval during the republic of china era on science cannot be disregarded. at the end of 1947, the wind indicator ball at the dms, crucial for issuing typhoon signals, was stolen. this incident resulted in the failure to hoist the typhoon signal on the evening of 20 february 1948 when a typhoon struck zhoushan. fortunately, the dms had pre-emptively broadcast an alert through the ningbo radio station the evening prior to the storm. afterwards, the dms urged the fishery bureau of zhejiang province to recreate the typhoon signal to avert such occurrences in the future.78 conclusion this article has centred focus on the establishment and utilisation of the dinghai meteorological station, to some extent delineating the trajectory of marine meteorology development during the republic of china era. from the chinese maritime customs and zikawei observatory in the early twentieth century, to the qingdao observatory and 74 muscolino, fishing wars and environmental change in late imperial and modern china, 114. 75 定海气象及海洋状况记录表 [record of meteorological and marine conditions of the dms], january to march 1948: aimhas, 20/24/006/20. 76 定海气象及海洋状况记录表 [record of meteorological and marine conditions of the dms], january to march 1948: aimhas, 20/24/006/20. 77 zhejiangsheng shuiliju cehousuo 浙江省水利局测候所, “浙江省气候观测 [meteorological observation in zhejiang province],” qixiang huibao 气象汇报 1, no. 1 (1946): 35. 78 “定海测候所风球被窃 [wind indicator ball pilfered in the dinghai meteorological station],” qixiang huibao 气象汇报 2, no. 3 (1948): 12. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 16 subsequently to the dms, this article explored the process of localisation in establishing better marine meteorological knowledge. it argued that meteorological stations were not merely facilities for acquiring and researching meteorological data, but their construction and operation were also shaped by this knowledge. moreover, the construction of meteorological stations during the republican era was not simply a political plan, but was influenced by factors such as the economy and society at that time. the demand from the fisheries sector emerged as a pivotal driver for marine meteorology advancement in the construction of dms. therefore, this article illustrates that in the construction plan of the dms, different levels of government and local economic organisations were involved, which was different from the previous construction model of meteorological stations in the republic of china. this article had expounded on how wartime heightened attention towards the development of marine meteorology, culminating in a more mature plan. this was exemplified, to some extent, in the post-war phase of the dms. the establishment of a maritime meteorological network gradually took shape based on the dms, yielding tangible outcomes in typhoon warnings and marine research. nonetheless, it is imperative to acknowledge the political and social instability of the republic of china, along with economic challenges, which impeded meteorological progress. the case of the dms was considered a ‘laboratory’ for china’s development of marine meteorology, which proves that non-western countries could also explore the development path of local science through the construction of scientific facilities. acknowledgements this work was supported by the national social science fund of china (grant number 23czs062) history of meteorology 7 (2015) 71 geographers, stats-men and sages: approaches to climatology in britain post-1945 alexander hall alexander.hall@newman.ac.uk newman university, birmingham in the year 2000 the uk conservation charity the woodland trust launched the nature’s calendar survey, a project that encourages members of the public to log observations of annual natural phenomena, such as the first blackthorn blossom. the study of the times of these recurring natural phenomena in relation to climate, known as phenology, dates back to at least the eighteenth century in britain. 1 now with 15 years of data and nearly 50,000 people across the united kingdom participating, the nature’s calendar survey has successfully resurrected an amateur tradition not in existence in the uk at the national scale, since the royal meteorological society discontinued its national phenological network in 1948. the nature’s calendar survey, and the wider citizen science movement it is part of are now not only engaging the public and amateur groups with science, but are giving these interested parties a participatory role in contemporary scientific research. 2 as important actors in the scientific, political, and public domains of climate change discourse have failed to agree on the existence, causes and solutions to anthropogenic climate change, scholarship in the humanities has increasingly begun to emphasise the importance of such a reconnection between cultural and public understandings of climate and professional climate studies. 3 a clearer understanding of the diverse perspectives of climate across time and space—climate’s “elusive identity”— is imperative for meaningful progression in addressing the societal implications of anthropogenic climate change. 4 today what is recognised as climatology, especially in popular and media discourses, is a discipline focused on regional, hemispheric and global modelling of climate, and particularly, climatic change. focused on climate projections at the large 1 t.h. sparks and p.d. carey, “the responses of species to climate over two centuries: an analysis of the marsham phenological record, 1736-1947,” journal of ecology 83 (1995) 321-329. 2 a. lawrence, “the first cuckoo in winter: phenology, recording, credibility and meaning in britain,” global environmental change 19 (2009) 173-179. 3 m. hulme, why we disagree about climate change: understanding controversy, inaction and opportunity (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2009); v. janković and c. barboza (eds.), weather, local knowledge and everyday life (rio de janeiro: mast, 2009). 4 j. r. fleming, “climate, change, history,” environment and history 20 (2014): 577. mailto:alexander.hall@newman.ac.uk history of meteorology 7 (2015) 72 scale and reliant on computers and satellite technology, this incarnation of the discipline which emerged in the latter half of the twentieth-century is often opaque and inaccessible to the lay person. 5 as mainstream climatology today becomes ever more complex, numerical, abstract, and homogenised in its approach, it is increasingly important for historians to highlight the connections and lineages of these modern methods to earlier antecedent ways of understanding climate and climatic change. modern climatology relies on a conceptualisation of the earth that considers its climate as a single global physical system. the coalescence and popularisation of this idea was a protracted international endeavour, which began in the late nineteenth-century and was still ongoing into the 1950s. 6 although the focus of this paper is the united kingdom, i aim to situate uk developments within this international context. histories of meteorology often present the development of the discipline during the twentieth-century as one characterised by the emergence of three distinct sub-fields, bounded by their methodological approaches: forecasting (applied meteorology), physical (theoretical meteorology), and empirical (climatology). 7 whilst in this paper i do not contest this reading, i hope to show that it is only part of the picture. a greater understanding of the discipline can be gained by also exploring the interaction between the above three approaches, other non-professional approaches, and antecedent methods no longer widespread today. in doing so, we can address jim fleming’s recent call for climate histories with a “focus on the diversity of agency and the inclusion of formerly excluded or subaltern groups.” 8 therefore, this paper focuses on types of climatology that were prevalent before the emergence of computerand satellite-led modelling of the 1950s and beyond. i hope to provide a snapshot of various activities in post-war britain that were understood at the time as climatological study. the paper focuses on three loosely bound groupings of practitioners, defined largely by their methodological approaches, backgrounds, and institutional affiliations. the sages of my title encompass those working in an amateur tradition with no formal meteorological training, who, despite the formalisation of amateur networks in the second half of the nineteenth-century, continued to approach the study of climate in a folkloric tradition informed by local, traditional knowledge. throughout the paper i use the term ‘amateur’ to mean both those who practice meteorology as a past-time and those that have no formal education in the field. however as we shall see, for a nascent and professionalising discipline such as climatology, the boundary between amateur and professional, or trained and self-taught, is not always clear. the stats-men of my title are those who sought to empirically record the climate. by the post-war period, they often had some level of meteorological training and were working as part of formalised professional or amateur networks. this grouping includes most climatologists working at the uk’s national meteorological service, the meteorological office (mo), who were engaged in the compilation of data and its application using simple statistical techniques for location specific enquiries. the 5 p. n. edwards, a vast machine: computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming (cambridge, massachusetts: the mit press, 2010): introduction. 6 j. r. fleming, historical perspectives on climate change (new york, oxford university press, 1998). 7 f. nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the twentieth century (san diego: academic press, 1995); edwards 2010, 61-82. 8 fleming 2014, 582 history of meteorology 7 (2015) 73 geographers of my title, while sharing a common tradition, training and background with many of the stats-men, were a small contingent of formally trained climatologists who had begun to consider climate in a more dynamic, regional and temporally sensitive manner. although heavily reliant on compiled climatological data, this group of climate researchers were beginning to develop more analytical approaches, creating coded or standardised data series and connecting their research to the latest theoretical understandings of atmospheric dynamics. rather than considering these groups as contemporaneously defined entities, i encourage the reader to view these groupings as fluid and overlapping. the groupings function as an analytical tool to elucidate what is a transitional and historically messy period in climatology’s history. this paper shows that despite their disparate approaches, rather than thinking of the ‘geographer, the stats-men, and sages’ of my title as three distinct spheres, these practitioners did not act in isolation, and their approaches to climate study interacted with and influenced each other. finally, i hope this paper will provoke reflection on how all of these approaches to post-war climatological study are still relevant for contemporary climate studies and connected public debates. suggesting, that despite contemporary climatology’s reliance on modelling, satellites, and computer technology, earlier ways of knowing the climate have not disappeared completely, but rather have been subsumed into the tacit knowledge base of contemporary approaches. knowing your climate: folklore and amateur observers i am going to begin with some of the folk traditions and amateur observers who are often on the fringes of the history of science. many people during the post-war period, especially those in rural occupations in the uk, although usually having no training in meteorology, did have a strong understanding of their local climate and prevailing weather conditions. 9 whether determined by their own direct observations, local community knowledge or proxy observations, such as sheep coming down into the valley ahead of a snow storm, 10 such an understanding of one’s immediate environ was imperative to a rural community’s success. inextricably bound up in this local understanding of climate was a canon of weather and climate related folklore. many of these traditions and sayings were recorded and popularised by nineteenth-century figures such as the reverend swainson and richard inwards. 11 tensions between popular weather lore and emergent natural philosophical understandings of the weather had first been explored by the quaker meteorologist luke howard at the end of the eighteenth century. 12 however, that such folkloric traditions were still fashionable in the latter half of the nineteenth century is evident through mining 9 a. hall and g. endfield, “snow scenes: exploring the role of memory and place in commemorating extreme winters,” weather, climate and society (forthcoming). 10 harry mawson, 1996: transcript fs, ambleside oral history archive. 11 c. swainson, a handbook of weather folklore (edinburgh and london: william blackwood and sons, 1873); r. inwards, weather lore (london: w. tweedie, 1869). 12 j. golinski, british weather and the climate of enlightenment (chicago: university of chicago press, 2007): chapter 2; v. janković, reading the skies: a cultural history of english weather, 1650-1820 (manchester: manchester university press, 2000). for more on luke howard see sean munger’s paper in this issue. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 74 engineer and keen folklorist, inwards’ position as joint editor of the quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society, a post he held for twenty years. 13 as the discipline further professionalised in the first decades of the twentieth century a clearer gap between the scientific approach to understanding the weather and antecedent oral traditions of weather lore grew significantly. 14 yet despite this schism, by 1950 inwards’ weather lore first published in 1869 was in its 4 th edition, and to date has never been out of print. likewise the reverend swainson’s 1873, a handbook of weather folk-lore was reprinted throughout the twentieth century. both texts, typical of a slew of similar publications in the period, are extremely comprehensive and wonderfully poetic in their content. 15 the proverbs in both are regionally specific, with many in the more uk focused weather lore being specific to single regions, counties or even towns, despite the relatively small landmass of the british isles. further, in inward’s weather lore not all of the sayings or passages are ancient folklore, in between verses from the bible, excerpts from shakespeare and traditional rhymes, are passages attributed to more recent nineteenth century figures such as the anglican cleric and writer sydney smith. most notable of these contemporary contributions are a plethora of rhymes, rules and observations attributed to admiral robert fitzroy, an early proponent of weather forecasting and the founder of the uk meteorological office. 16 the local specificity of these collections and the inclusion of contemporary lore in inward’s weather lore, highlights that such texts were not archaic tomes kept alive for purely linguistic or nostalgic reasons. rather it suggests that in the first decades of the twentieth-century, weather lore was still a functional contemporary practice in britain. however, the varying attribution and age of the sayings in inwards’, and other similar collections, alerts us to the wildly varied accuracy of such traditions. the text of these weather proverb collections makes no distinction between accurate rules of thumb or prediction, and speculation, hearsay, or poetic verse. despite the continued professionalisation of meteorology, during the first decades of the twentieth-century amateur meteorology remained a popular pursuit with the growing british middle classes. 17 alongside the latest publicly accessible writings on meteorology, across europe amateurs often incorporated local weather lore and folkloric traditions into their understanding of the local climate. 18 by the interwar period and in the years following the second world war, the most proactive amateurs had begun adopting techniques from professional meteorology, and were using data of past weather conditions to find analogous weather patterns and tentatively forecast the weather. 19 13 “mr. richard inwards,” nature 133 (1934): 603; k. anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: university of chicago press, 2005): chapter 2. 14 k. c. harper, weather by numbers: the genesis of modern meteorology (cambridge ma: mit press, 2012): 84-90. 15 golinski 2007, 70 16 m. walker, history of the meteorological office (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2012): chapters 2 and 3. 17 janković 2000; g. endfield and c. morris, “exploring the role of the amateur in the production and circulation of meteorological knowledge,” climatic change (2012) 69-89. 18 s. strauss, “weather wise: speaking folklore to science in leukerbad,” in s. strauss and b. orlove (eds.), weather, climate, culture (oxford/new york: berg, 2003). 19 e. g. bilham, here is the weather forecast (london, golden galley press ltd, 1947). history of meteorology 7 (2015) 75 a few, such as brothers john and dennis bartlett, who used empirical methods to make long-range forecasts, had even begun to earn a living from their knowledge of the weather. 20 although describing themselves as “professional weather consultants” and using methods based upon those used by both the british and us militaries, the certainty that the bartlett brothers attached to their long-range forecasts, was at odds with academic and national meteorological service meteorologists in the period. 21 in their endeavours the bartlett’s were following in an age old tradition of weather sages and charlatans, albeit under the veneer of a modern, numerical, pseudo-scientific methodology. 22 the difference between the bartlett brothers’ approach and that of scientific meteorologists in the period is highlighted by comparing their book, signpost to the weather, published in 1949, with another popular book of the period, here is the weather forecast, written by the head of the central forecasting station at the mo, ernest bilham. 23 in bilham’s book there are just five pages towards the end of the text dedicated to long-range and seasonal forecasting. he discusses the approaches and describes the results from using empirical correlation methods as generally not “commensurate with the expenditure of labour.” 24 despite the efforts of a new generation of meteorologists such as jerome namias, who was then chief of the extended forecast division at the u.s. weather bureau, 25 bilham’s assertion that seasonal, long-range forecasting was not yet a viable endeavour, was at the time the accepted position at the british mo. contradicting this position, in signpost to the weather the bartlett brothers began a whole chapter dedicated to long-range forecasting, by asking: “is it possible for the amateur to get any idea of the weather several weeks, or even months, in advance? the answer to this question is: yes!” 26 it would be easy for practitioners today to consider the bartlett brothers as quacks, but the content of the rest of their book, with a third section solely dedicated to teaching people about the british climate, reveals that to do so would miss the wider context in which they were writing. whilst their methods and confidence in their long-range predictive ability may have been at odds with academic meteorologists, their dedication to encouraging members of the public interested in the weather to learn more about the uk climate is very much in keeping with wider trends in the popularisation of science in the period. 27 by the post-war years, the type of amateur observers both the bartlett brothers and ernest bilham were trying to encourage through their books, were an integral and well-established component of efforts aimed at an improved understanding 20 the experts say 1: your weather for the holidays available online at the british pathé archive. 21 d. bartlett and k. bartlett, signpost to the weather (london: edward stanford ltd, 1949): iii. 22 j. r. fleming, fixing the sky: the checkered history of weather and climate control (new york: columbia university press): chapter 3. 23 d. bartlett and k. bartlett, signpost to the weather (london: edward stanford ltd, 1949); bilham 1947; meteorological office, annual report (london: hmso, 1947). 24 bilham 1947, 204 25 f. nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century (san diego: academic press, 1995): chapter 10. also see magnus vollset’s paper in this issue for more on the efforts of norwegian meteorologists at extending forecasts. 26 d. bartlett and k. bartlett, signpost to the weather (london: edward stanford ltd, 1949): 91. 27 p. j. bowler, science for all: the popularization of science in early twentieth-century (chicago: university of chicago press, 2009). http://www.britishpathe.com/video/the-experts-say-1-your-weather-for-the-holidays/query/weather history of meteorology 7 (2015) 76 of the british climate and the mechanisms controlling it. i now briefly return to phenology, the study of times of reoccurring natural phenomena in relation to climate; an area where amateur observers were central in efforts to understand the climate more thoroughly. since 1875 the royal meteorological society had maintained a volunteer recorder network, compiling statistics and publishing an annual report detailing natural annual occurrences. after receiving criticism of the reliability of the observations and questions over the cost of running the network, the royal meteorological society decided to discontinue the phenological report in 1948. 28 the prominent climatologist, geographer and former president of the society (1945-46), professor gordon manley, was critical of the decision, commending the co-ordinator of the network, major gunton, for his “remarkable accomplishment,” adding how he appreciated the effort even more because of his background as a geographer. 29 manley was a vocal proponent of amateur involvement in climatology and later, in 1953, he unsuccessfully campaigned to get the phenological network resurrected and taken over by the newly formed nature conservancy. 30 recording the climate: data collection and the empirical tradition in 1939, with the prospect of war on the horizon, the mo had officially incorporated research into the everyday remit of their staff, and established a meteorological research committee in 1941. 31 during the war, the mo expanded greatly, and by 1945 the now substantial climatology division saw itself being called upon for more than just the provision of data as had more traditionally been the case. most notably, during 1942 and 1943 climatological research informed the creation of a government fuel restriction scheme, which split the nation into three based on historical temperature records, separating scotland, england north of a line drawn from the wash to the river mersey, and the remainder of england and wales. 32 despite the discontinuation of the phenological network in 1948, during the postwar years the professional meteorologists of the mo were still heavily reliant on amateur observers. by 1947 the climatology branch at the mo was relying on nearly 5,000 climatological rainfall stations run by private observers on a voluntary basis. the data from these amateurs, who showed “great public spirit” in collating their observations, informed both climatological research and the development of applied services and advice at the mo. 33 28 the royal meteorological society (rmets), “report of the council for the year 1948,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society (1949) 199-214. 29 rmets, “report on the phenological observations in the british isles for october 1946 to september 1947,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society (1948) 168-172. 30 the national archives (tna): ft 3/308 phenological observations. 31 meteorological office, annual report (london: hmso, 1939); air ministry, the second world war 1939-1945: meteorology (london: air ministry, air historical branch, 1954): chapter 30. 32 tna: bj 5/119 ministry of fuel: supply of meteorological forecasts of temperature; a. hall, risk, blame and expertise: the meteorological office and extreme weather in post-war britain (manchester: university of manchester doctoral thesis, 2012): 99-103. 33 meteorological office, annual report (london: hmso, 1947) history of meteorology 7 (2015) 77 in these initial post-war years the number of applied services being supplied by the climatological sections of the mo increased greatly. in addition to the provision of data for established enquiries such as upper air observations for aircraft manufacturers, by the early 1950s the climatology division was supplying climatological information to businesses and government departments in connection with water supplies, flood problems, agricultural and industrial research, health issues and town planning and transport. 34 in responding to these enquiries, the mo scrutinised their statistics and data for analogues, barometric trends, periodicities, symmetry points and general correlations. thus, these methods which had been applied piecemeal across mo branches over the previous decades were formally adopted by the newly established department. 35 despite this growth in both research and climatological applications, we must remember that in the immediate post-war years, climatology at the mo was still defined by what it was not. the jurisdiction of the newly established climatological branches was described in annual reports as, “everything that falls outside the scope of synoptic meteorology and forecasting.” 36 the marginal position of climatology within the mo, reflects the wider international history of the field in relation to the rest of meteorology; having long struggled to gain widespread respect and authority. 37 it wasn’t until 1958 with the separation of climatological services and climatological research into two distinct branches that climatology at the mo found a clear place within the institutional structure of the organisation. with this split, climatological research at the mo, led by r.g. veryard, who was also the chair of the world meteorological organization’s commission for climatology, began to focus on upper atmosphere, large-scale and global scale phenomena. 38 this shift in scale of climatological study was influenced by developments in dynamical meteorology, the rapid advancements being made in electronic computing, and a renewed international interest in geophysical systems, influenced by the international geophysical year (1957-58). 39 the mo weren’t the only people advising the government and industry on climatology at the time. there were a small number of british academics spread across university geography departments who were also often consulted. for example, in 1949 guidance on housing and planning in the uk was published, which relied heavily not only on mo advice, including research by ernest bilham, but also on the views of academic climatologists, referencing several works including those by gordon manley, then professor of geography at bedford college, london. 40 the few academic and 34 meteorological office, annual report (london: hmso, 1956); a. hall, “from the airfield to the high street: the met office’s role in the emergence of commercial weather services,” weather, climate and society (2015) e-view. 35 c. k. m. douglas, “reviews of modern meteorology 4: the evolution of 20th-century forecasting in the british isles,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society (1952) 1-21. 36 meteorological office, annual report (london: hmso, 1939); meteorological office, annual report (london: hmso, 1947) 37 edwards 2010, 63-80. see also magnus vollset’s paper in this issue. 38 tna: air 2/14909 world meteorological organisation commission for climatology; meteorological office, annual report (london: hmso, 1959) 39 fleming 1998, chapter 9; edwards 2010, chapter 5 40 tna: hlg 71/28 relationship between site development and climatology, 1948-1951. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 78 research climatologists employed in the uk in the post-war years are the last group i now turn to. understanding the climate: geographers and statistical analysis climatologists in britain were few in number, most likely numbering less than ten at any point in the years 1945-50. my focus here shall be on the two most prominent british climatologists in the period. firstly, the aforementioned gordon manley, who after periods lecturing at durham, birmingham and cambridge, became the first professor of geography at bedford college in 1948. he remained there until 1964 when he left to found the environmental sciences department at the university of lancaster. 41 secondly, hubert lamb, who at the time was working in the climatological department at the mo in the long-range forecasting research division and would go on to found the climate research unit in 1972 at the university of east anglia. 42 although often not primarily considered a geographer, lamb had studied the subject as an undergraduate at cambridge and geographical thinking would remain a central feature of his approach to climatology throughout his career. 43 both were familiar with consulting and working on applied government research. at this time lamb was an employee at the mo while, from the mid-1950s manley held a mo research grant to investigate london’s meteorological records, and during the same period he was involved with ongoing work with the ministry of fuel and power on the effect of temperature on fuel. 44 however, rather than focussing on the smaller, applied aspects of their work, i want to highlight some of the new climatological approaches and techniques that these two figures developed, which are emblematic of the broader methodological developments climatology underwent in the post-war years. by exploring the analytical methods that manley and lamb began to employ in the post-war years, we can see that they were important figures who bridged the traditional empirical ‘stamp-collecting’ approach of climatologists as the compilers of meteorological observations, and the modern global computer modelling of climatologists today. 45 other british figures that played a bridging role between the descriptive climate statistics tradition and the emergent field of climate dynamics include mo assistant director of the climatological division, charles brooks and the identifier of the link between anthropogenic carbon dioxide production and climate change, guy stewart callendar. 46 however, both manley and lamb also had roles as public intellectuals, helping to maintain connections between professional climatologists, amateur networks and the wider public. both founded university departments dedicated 41 g. endfield et al., “gordon valentine manley and his contribution to the study of climate change: a review of his life and work,” wires climate change (2015): 2 42 walker 2012, 403 43 j. martin-nielson, “ways of knowing climate: hubert h. lamb and climate research in the uk,” wires climate change (2015): 2. 44 tna: bj 5/303 researches into past weather of london: publication by professor gordon manley; gordon manley collection: cambridge university library, ms add 8386/17. 45 edwards 2010, 61-82. 46 c. e. p. brooks, climate through the ages (new york: r. v. coleman, 1926); j. r. fleming, the callendar effect: the life and work of guy stewart callendar (1898-1964) (boston: american meteorological society, 2007). history of meteorology 7 (2015) 79 to the study of the natural environment in a societal context, manley wrote a weekly column in the manchester guardian, regularly featured on both regional and national radio, and founded the royal meteorological society’s popular public facing journal weather in 1946, 47 whilst lamb contributed 24 articles to this publication, alongside numerous letters and features on a wide range of subjects in newspapers such as the times. 48 at a time when methodological developments which required ever larger data sets, computing resources, and more advanced mathematics were increasingly separating professional climatology from amateur and folkloric traditions, through their public profiles and work with organisations like the royal meteorological society, both manley and lamb helped to maintain links across the three groups outlined in this paper. in this capacity they acted as important mediators, translating and communicating information across the increasingly disparate networks. in their research both were strongly influenced by international researchers, notably the us based, german pioneer of climatological statistical analysis, helmut landsberg, and by a host of scandinavian climatologists and meteorologists, including sweden’s hans ahlmann and denmark’s leo lysgaard. 49 in addition to these international figures, lamb and manley worked amongst a small network of uk based research climatologists. most were based at the mo, where researchers were now beginning to advance earlier models based on geographical variation, using the latest mathematical and statistical meteorological methods. 50 throughout his career manley worked on a vast array of problems, from the extent of the last glacial maximum to snow in london. he is most commonly remembered, especially by climatologists today, for his meticulous work creating the central england temperature (cet) series, which he first published in 1953. 51 the cet is the longest continuous record of instrumental surface temperatures in the world, with daily measurements going back to 1772 and monthly means going back to 1659. it is compiled from a vast array of climatological records that manley collated and standardised over several years, giving an average temperature for a roughly triangular area covering the centre of england between bristol, lancashire and london. the cet series quickly became a central component of climatological study and is indicative of wider developments in the field, as study progressed from the local and individual compilation of data to larger standardised and applied uses of meteorological 47 endfield et al. 2015, 7-8 48 for example: h. h. lamb, “malta’s sea breezes,” weather 10 (1955) 256-264; h. h. lamb, "a voice in europe," times (23 june 1984): 9; h. h. lamb, “britain's worsening winters," times (30 jan. 1971): 12. 49 manley’s work on snow and glaciation in the british isles was heavily influenced by ahlmann’s work on glaciation and climate in scandanavia, e.g. g. manley, “snowline in britain,” geografiska annaler, 1939, 31, 179-193. whilst lamb highlighted landsberg’s interest in his research and encouragement as integral to the development of his career, see h. lamb, “helmut erich landsberg, 1906–1985,” climatic change 9 (1986) 265-266. 50 the career of charles brooks typifies these developments at the mo; after publishing the widely cited climate through the ages in 1926, brooks went on to champion mathematical arguments to support historic climatic variation. see c. e. p. brooks, 1926 and c. e. p. brooks and n. carruthers, handbook of statistical methods in meteorology (london: hmso, 1953). 51 j. a. steers, “gordon manley 1901-80,” transactions of the institute of british geographers 5 (1980) 513-517. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 80 observations. updated by manley in 1974, today the series is maintained by the hadley centre at the mo and is used to calibrate proxy records of climate change. in the early 1950s lamb was working on many similar issues to manley. in 1950 he published a paper introducing the lamb weather type, which when combined with a 1972 follow-up paper, would go on to become his most cited work. 52 the system, which classified synoptic weather based on variations in surface pressure across the british isles, like manley’s cet series, can be seen as indicative of the shift that climatological research was undergoing in the period. this shift saw the large amounts of data being collected not only standardised, but also manipulated, analysed and applied to larger climatological questions. together, lamb and manley were important in helping the discipline begin seriously considering climate over larger regional and hemispheric scales, and in considering climate change over time. lamb was particularly important in bringing to light the possibility that climate may vary and change at the human timescale. 53 statistical analysis and manipulation of climatological data, as advocated and practiced by manley and lamb, continued to increase through the 1950s. in the second half of the decade, computerized systems using punched card technology became commonplace in the climatological department at the mo. 54 by the end of 1957, the world meteorological organization, via the commission for climatology, was selling similar microcards containing meteorological data collected during the international geophysical year (1957-58). 55 however, as computing capability continued to increase, the empirical climatological tradition was progressively replaced by climatological study focused on global climate monitoring and modelling. 56 whilst such an approach was more physical and theoretical in its nature, it relied as much on statistical approaches, as championed by manley and lamb, as it did upon guy stewart callendar’s now seminal, but then still contested, 1938 paper on the artificial production of carbon dioxide. 57 whilst manley and lamb can both be viewed as progenitors of global climate studies and climate modelling, we must also be clear on where their views on both the utility of numerical methods, and the issue of anthropogenic climate change lay. whilst their post-war work was both in academic and public realms crucial in progressing and promoting dynamic climatology, as the practice of climate modelling emerged, both lamb and manley held reservations about man’s ability to predict climate on any meaningful scale. lamb left the mo in 1970 to set up the climate research unit at the university of east anglia. leaving in response to what he saw as the overreliance of the mo on computers and numerical methods. manley also eventually became disillusioned 52 h. h. lamb, “types and spells of weather around the year in the british isles : annual trends, seasonal structure of the year, singularities,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 76 (1950) 393429; h. h. lamb, “british isles weather types and a register of daily sequence of circulation patterns, 1861-1971,” geophysical memoir 116 (london: hmso, 1972); h. h. lamb, through all the changing scenes of life: a meteorologist's tale (east harling, norfolk: taverner publications, 1997). 53 j. a. kington, “hubert h. lamb – a review of his life and work,” weather 63 (2008) 187-189. 54 meteorological office, annual report (london: hmso, 1956). 55 tna: air 2/14909 56 for example see gilbert plass’ mid 1950s creation of a computer model of infra-red radiative transfer in fleming 1998, 121-122. 57 g. s. callendar, “the artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 64 (1938) 223-240; fleming, 2007: chapter 5. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 81 with the number of studies that were not based on firsthand scientific study, and stuck by his climate history methods whilst most around him were adopting environmental modelling methodologies. 58 although manley was reticent to be drawn on anthropogenic causes of climate change and lamb’s position on it changed throughout his career, 59 both were pioneers of climatological study that was culturally situated and connected. both understood climate as a boundary issue and believed the future of climatology lay in interdisciplinary boundary work. this willingness to work with, amongst others geologists, historians, and local expertise such as that held by farmers, has had a lasting influence, and can be felt in the interand multidisciplinary approaches of climate studies today. 60 conclusion the ever-increasingly technical and technology-reliant methods being adopted by climatology in the post-war years seem at first to be completely divergent from some of the earlier traditions introduced in the first half of this paper. however, through small glimpses of interactions via organisations such as the royal meteorological society, we see how the newly emergent climatological approaches and their professionalised proponents remained in touch with amateurs and earlier traditions of climatological study. despite climatological study in the period being heterogeneous and varied in approach, the discipline in britain managed to maintain a connection between the amateur and the professional. in this respect, gordon manley stands out as a unique character, writing his column in the manchester guardian at the same time he was working on the complicated statistical compilation of the cet series. today, despite scientific consensus on the threat posed by anthropogenic climate change, potential solutions have failed to gain widespread public support and consequently meaningful political action has been limited. in response to this disconnect between scientific knowledge and societal action, academics are increasingly highlighting the importance of cultural aspects of climate knowledge. much of this academic work shows the important role particular, specific, and local perspectives of climate can have in connecting communities to the often abstract scientific study of anthropogenic climate change. in light of such developments, scientists such as manley and lamb, who were consistently progressive and critical in their approach to climatological study, whilst always remaining aware of larger societal debates, should be seen as important figures that can help to inform current debates. despite the rise of global-scale climate compilation and modelling, it is not only academic climatologists like manley and lamb who have a notable legacy; weather sayings, lore, and folk traditions still persist and form an integral part of many regional 58 r. a. s. ratcliffe, “meteorologist’s profile – hubert h lamb,” weather 47 (1992) 263-266; endfield et al. 2015, 10 59 in recent years climate sceptics have popularised the idea that lamb was a prominent early climate change denier. however janet martin-nielson (2015) shows that lamb’s position on anthropogenic climate change was much more nuanced, encompassing concerns about the reductive approach of modellers, the potential for large errors with predictions, and the lack of integration of climate models with other approaches to climate decision-making. 60 t. d. davies, “guest editorial – hubert lamb,” weather 53 (1998) 200; martin-nielson, (2015); l. veale and g. endfield, “the helm wind of cross fell,” weather 69 (2014), 6-7. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 82 identities in britain. further, the rise in popularity of the citizen science movement has once again seen amateur networks revitalised and put to work doing real scientific research. 61 in addition to the woodland trust’s, nature’s calendar survey, referred to in the introduction, the distributed computing project climateprediction.net is now using the idle time of over 30,000 personal computers to run ensemble climate models, alongside engaging participants in education on the role of computer models in climate change research. 62 at the mo, applied climatological services continue to be developed under the world meteorological organization’s “national framework” and are increasingly being applied to regional, national, and even international scales. 63 finally, while both manley and lamb’s approach to statistical climatological work may have been superseded, the compilation of data series, both from observed, and subsequently proxy records, has only continued to increase in importance. today, the techniques and series developed by climatologists in the post-war period, including lamb’s weather types and manley’s cet series, are foundational elements of climate modelling and climatology more generally. 64 61 t. gura, “citizen science: amateur experts,” nature 493 (2013) 259-261. 62 “climateprediction.net,” http://www.climateprediction.net/, accessed 16/07/2015. 63 see the mo’s climate services online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-service-uk, accessed 16/07/2015. 64 d. conway and p. d. jones, “the use of weather types and air flow indices for gcm downscaling,” journal of hydrology 212 (1998) 348-361; j. r. knight et al., “climate impacts of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation,” geophysical research letters 33 (2006) 1-4. http://www.climateprediction.net/ http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-service-uk microsoft word 5) jan-wille__mm.docx history of meteorology 8 (2017) 95 colonizing the free atmosphere: wladimir köppen’s ‘aerology’, the german maritime observatory, and the emergence of a trans-imperial network of weather balloons and kites, 1873-1906 robert-jan wille r.b.wille@uu.nl utrecht university this article suggests that the meteorological science of ‘aerology’, the global study of the upper air with the help of balloons and kites, emerged most prominently in imperial germany in the first decade of the twentieth century as a consequence of trans-imperial networks and field work. although contemporaries and historians have often demoted aerology to the level of a hilfswissenschaft to the emerging discipline of atmospheric physics, aerology was a top-down program of investing in scientific infrastructure to jumpstart, on the global stage, what contemporaries such as the russian-german meteorologist wladimir köppen felt as long overdue: a german synoptic meteorology.1 newly established german weather balloon halls and kite stations became rivals in the field to metropolitan observatories and universities, assimilating data produced by expeditions and field work in general.2 it was thanks to german aerologists, german meteorological stations and the german coordination of simultaneous european weather balloon ascents in the first decades of the twentieth century, that in the 1920s and 1930s both the norwegian bergen school and lewis fry richardson were able to attempt 1 wladimir köppen, “die wechselwirkung zwischen der maritimen und der landmeteorologie in deren entwickelung,” meteorologische zeitschrift 26 (1909). 2 on the role of stations and field laboratories in the life sciences, see: robert e. kohler, landscapes and labscapes: exploring the lab-field border in biology (chicago: university of chicago press, 2002); jeremy vetter, “rocky mountain high science. teaching, research and nature at field stations,” in knowing global environments. new historical perspectives on the field sciences (piscataway nj: rutgers university press, 2011), 108–134; robert-jan wille, “the co-production of station morphology and agricultural management in the tropics. transformations in botany at the botanical garden at buitenzorg, java 1880-1904,” ed. denise phillips and sharon kingsland, new perspectives on the history of life sciences and agriculture., archimedes series in the history and philosophy of science (2015): 256–281; raf de bont, stations in the field: a history of place-based animal research, 1870-1930 (chicago: university of chicago press, 2015). for a meteorological case, see: deborah r. coen, “the storm lab: meteorology in the austrian alps,” science in context 22, no. 3 (2009): 463–486. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 96 modelling weather.3 robert friedman and mott greene have demonstrated the importance of aerology for later careers in meteorology and geophysics, not only contributing to the career of vilhelm bjerknes, but also to that of alfred wegener.4 for most historians, the crucial phase in the development of transnational atmospheric physics is the cold war, when weather models and satellites emerged as tools. paul edwards has demonstrated how only between 1965 and 1975 did an interdisciplinary community succeed in tying together different research strands to create a transnational scientific and political community – or ‘vast machine’ – of climate sciences. in this machine the field of atmospheric physics had lead the way, with oceanography and ecology adopting its computer models and satellite data as shared ‘boundary objects’.5 however, although edwards did focus on the importance of infrastructural globalism before the cold war,6 he left it to other historians to analyze the emergence of atmospheric physics itself as a distinct field half a century before. around the first world war, it entered the university curriculum in germany.7 there, a decade earlier, state observatories had started organizing regular balloon and kite ascents. this practice was exported to the scandinavian countries when bjerknes returned from leipzig to bergen before the war and created the bergen school of atmospheric physics that became the dominant theory of meteorology after the 1930s, in the united states and the rest of the world.8 this article suggests that germany’s campaign in weather kites and balloons between 1900 and 1914 needs to be seen as a crucial (and heretofore missing) link or intermediary between two distinct periods and geographies in the history of meteorology. whereas in the history of nineteenth century weather science the focus has mostly been on maritime meteorology, physical laws and weather prediction in great britain, its naval neighbors and to a 3 robert marc friedman, appropriating the weather. vilhelm bjerkness and the construction of a modern meteorology (ithaca ny: cornell university press, 1989); lewis fry richardson, weather rediction by numerical processes (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1922); peter lynch, the emergence of numerical weather prediction: richardson’s dream (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2006). 4 friedman, appropriating the weather; mott t. greene, alfred wegener: science, exploration, and the theory of continental drift (baltimore: john hopkins university press, 2015). 5 paul edwards, a vast machine. computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming (cambridge, ma; london: mit press, 2010); susan leigh star and james r. griesemer, “institutional ecology, ‘translations’ and boundary objects: amateurs and professionals in berkeley’s museum of vertebrate zoology, 1907-39,” social studies of science 19, no. 3 (1989): 387–420. 6 paul edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism,” osiris 21, no. 1 (january 2006): 229–250. 7 for a focus on the interbellum and the infrastructure of british colonial developmental meteorology, see: martin mahony, “for an empire of ‘all types of climate’: meteorology as an imperial science,” journal of historical geography 51 (january 2016): 29–39. 8 friedman, appropriating the weather; greene, alfred wegener.; james rodger fleming, inventing atmospheric science. bjerknes, rossby, wexler, and the foundations of modern meteorology (cambridge ma: mit press, 2016). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 97 much lesser extent austria-hungary,9 the focus in the twentieth century has been on thermodynamic modelling and the origins of atmospheric physics in scandinavia and the united states.10 german aerology’s intermediate position is manifold. first, aerology and weather ballooning formed a link between both centuries and specific epochal cultures of science, between victorian networks of humboldtian scientists calibrating instruments, mountaineering and collecting data globally and cold war atmospheric physicists working with models and satellites.11 second, germany formed a geographical link: between the land-based empires of the east, the british ocean and scandinavia. thirdly, wilhelmine balloon halls and kite launching ships that collaborated and competed with austrian mountain stations linked naval meteorology to the physics of the upper air. fourth, germany’s imperial ambitions connected longer traditions of european imperial fieldwork in polar and tropical meteorology to the german system of research universities.12 traditionally, the history of german science centers on the development (and sometimes its peculiar sonderweg) of the german nation-state, in the form of the imperial germany formed by bismarck between the belt in the north and the isar in the south, the rhine in the west and the memel in the east. although this article also acknowledges the innovating impetus of the politics of german national science politics in the late nineteenth century and early twentieth century, it also emphasizes the importance of imperial dimensions and ‘trans-imperial’ networks in the history of german science. thus, i relocate german science within the broader dynamics of an international and multidimensional history of the atmospheric sciences. this article focuses on the embedding of wladimir köppen, a russian-german scientist, into the meteorology of the new german state, a state that was focused on becoming both a maritime and a land empire, with hamburg as an important center for the former and berlin and strasburg as centers for the latter. out of this competition emerged a third dimension: the atmosphere. a new kind of german empire was born: an aerial empire, explored by a fleet of zeppelins and weather balloons. nationalist and internationalist german scientists worked 9 katherine anderson, predicting the weather. victorians and the science of meteorology (university of chicago press, 2010); david moon, “the debate over climate change in the steppe region in nineteenth-century russia,” the russian review 69, no. 2 (april 2010): 251–275; deborah r. coen, “imperial climatographies from tyrol to turkestan,” osiris 26, no. 1 (january 2011): 45–65; azadeh achbari and frans van lunteren, “dutch skies, global laws,” historical studies in the natural sciences 46, no. 1 (february 11, 2016): 1–43. 10 friedman, appropriating the weather; fleming, inventing atmospheric science. 11 for ‘humboldtian science’, see: susan faye cannon, science in culture: the early victorian period (kent & new york: dawson, 1978). 12 see also philipp lehmann’s contribution to this issue: “losing the field: franz thorbecke and (post)colonial climatology in germany,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 145–158. although several authors have also pointed at the important role of germany in polar meteorology, much analysis on the national and imperial context of these aerological projects is still needed: susan barr and cornelia lüdecke, the history of the international polar years (ipys) (heidelberg: springer, 2010). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 98 together: the ‘free atmosphere’ was something that could be conquered but which left room for cooperation with other nations. köppen as world-meteorologist before the foundation of the royal aeronautical observatory in lindenberg in 1905, wladimir köppen’s own kite station near hamburg formed a key site for the new aerology. thanks to köppen’s observatory and the weather kites produced and calibrated at the station, and in cooperation with the lindenberg observatory, german naval ships started collecting data in the tropics and the polar area. wladimir köppen was chief meteorologist of the deutsche seewarte since its foundation in 1875, and later father-in-law of alfred wegener. in many ways, he was a ‘go-between’ between russian, german and overseas meteorology.13 it is tempting to call köppen a generalist who was reluctant to pursue a further career in plant physiology, the topic of his dissertation, and who, through a detour, ended up as a meteorological climatographer famous for his maps and climate zones, which are still used today. 14 however, it is more accurate to describe him as a humboldtian scientist who became a ‘world meteorologist’. recently, katharine anderson contrasted the bergen school of dynamic meteorology and atmospheric thermodynamics to the earlier and much more comprehensive sphere of ‘world meteorology’ that had partly nurtured it. in particular, she offers two main examples: napier shaw’s ‘long involvement with the réseau mondial’, the world network of meteorological stations, and wladimir köppen.15 world meteorologists such as köppen and shaw did not oppose the kind of focused thermodynamic modelling that later became the bergen school of vilhelm bjerknes, tor bergeron and jacob bjerknes. quite to the contrary, as my article will show, they played a vital role in making this influential school of dynamical meteorology possible, by offering data sets, critical support and most of all its infrastructure of observatories and academic expertise. at the same time, as anderson has demonstrated, shaw, köppen and others worried about what the 13 following kapil raj, go-betweens have a crucial function in the development of modern science. kapil raj, “gobetweens, travelers, and cultural translators,” in a companion to the history of science, ed. bernard lightman (chichester: john wiley & sons, 2016), 39–57, 44. building on the german sociologist georg simmel, raj distinguishes ‘wanderers’ from ‘strangers’: the first comes and goes, the second comes and stays. meteorology was not only constructed by wanderers such as alexander von humboldt or vilhelm bjerknes, but maybe even more so by strangers such as köppen, jacob bjerknes or carl-gustaf rossby, the scandinavians who brought the bergen school to the united states. of course, there is a large grey zone between wanderers and strangers. rossby died in sweden. for more on rossby, see: fleming, inventing atmospheric science. 14 wladimir köppen, ‘wärme und pflanzenwachsthum’, bulletin de la societé impériale des naturalistes de moscou, 43.3&4 (1870), 41–110. 15 katharine anderson, “marine meteorology: observing regimes and global visions, 1918-1939,” in soundings and crossings. doing science at sea, 1800-1970, ed. katharine anderson and helen rozwadowski (sagamore beach ma: science history publications, 2016), 213–244. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 99 norwegian modelers were to abandon. instead of studying the atmospheric interactions and meteorological phenomena of the globe as a whole, the bergen school meteorologists focused ‘on the collection of wind and temperature data within a tightly defined region, and interpreted through thermodynamic models of lines of convergence and fronts.’16 however, köppen played an important role too in the meteorological studies of dynamical weather patterns in the upper atmosphere. it was köppen who proposed the name ‘aerology’ for studies of the upper atmosphere in 1906, during a meeting of the international commission for scientific aeronautics in milan.17 köppen’s new name capitalized on the recent designation of a new layer in the atmosphere by the frenchman leon teisserenc de bort together with assmann: the stratosphere. köppen saw himself above all as a reformer. he himself wrote in 1909 that both the 1860s and the 1890s had seen important revolutions in the history of meteorology, in which he himself had played a large role in making germany catch up with the rest.18 he presented aerology as the fifth and possibly final phase in the progressive history of ‘land meteorology’, a phase which had started in the 1890s. according to köppen, a first ‘age of legends’ had lasted from babylonian to early modern times, followed by an era of quantification (1643-1817). then came the periods of climatology (1817-1855) and synoptic meteorology (1855-1893). gradually, land meteorology had increasingly connected to maritime meteorology and its science of storms.19 according to köppen, instruments and technologies had provoked these revolutions: barometers, isothermic maps, daily weather maps, weather kites and unmanned balloons. balloons and kites had brought the third dimension of altitude and what would turn out to be a layered atmosphere into mapping global weather. köppen also was also reflective about financial resources. to his joy, in recent history the german state had finally followed where private american and french money had originally taken the lead. in the field of synoptic meteorology, germans had only caught up decades later, with the establishment of the seewarte. now, köppen was more confident about the important role of germany in aerology.20 of course, his model above all legitimated the way he had innovated the field of meteorology himself. he had worked on climate statistics in the 1850s, exported the daily weather map from the russian empire to imperial germany in the 1870s and 1880s, and finally adopted weather kites around 1900. after that he had used his position at the maritime observatory to bring the new three-dimensional meteorology outside europe, in order 16 ibid. 17 frederik nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century (san diego: academic press, 1995), 48; hugo von hergesell, “the development of aerology. a retrospect and a glance into the future,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 53 (september 10, 1927): 78. 18 köppen, “wissenschaftliche luftschiffahrt,” 105–106. 19 köppen, “die wechselwirkung,” 19. 20 köppen, “wissenschaftliche luftschiffahrt,” 105–106. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 100 to connect maritime and continental meteorology. to do this, he used the ‘free atmosphere’ as a bridge. before analyzing the construction of meteorology as a discipline in imperial german discipline through köppen’s work, it is necessary to disentangle and recombine the twin pillars of this discipline: the german state and the german-speaking world. the german state germany and the german-speaking world are somewhat underrepresented in the anglophone histories of dynamic meteorology, climate science and atmospheric physics.21 although some historians have referred to the role of german meteorologists in designating the stratosphere in 1902 and establishing important meteorological institutes, they do so always in the context of other developments, such as the analysis of germany’s national culture of balloonists, or in the background of vilhelm bjerknes and bergen school in dynamic meteorology.22 however, recently, mott greene’s biography of alfred wegener has created momentum for a more structural analysis of german aerology as a key field in the reformations in global meteorology: wegener played a large role in the german academic landscape of ‘cosmic physics’ and ballooning.23 in the decade before the great war, germany played a key role in the new science of atmospheric physics because of its investment in a dense network of stations for unmanned balloons and kites. between 1900 and 1914 several german state agencies started investing in global weather balloon ascents. the german navy invested in expeditions, a global network of measuring stations and a kite station near hamburg. at the new meteorological institute of the alsace reichsland in strasburg, the president of the international committee of scientific aeronautics, hugo hergesell, coordinated international balloon ascents. he worked closely together with the prince of monaco on his ship the princesse alice, joined by the french and italian navies; and in 1905 the emperor wilhelm ii chartered the royal prussian aeronautical observatory under the directorship of richard assmann, who had emerged as an important figure in the berlin campaigns for scientific ballooning in the 1890s.24 21 as are france and soviet russia, but i will leave this to others. for a german language overview of climate science, see: matthias heymann, “klimakonstruktionen,” ntm 17 (2009): 171–197. 22 sabine höhler, luftfahrtforschung und luftfahrtmythos: wissenschaftliche ballonfahrt in deutschland, 1880-1910 (frankfurt am main; new york: campus, 2001); friedman, appropriating the weather. also, see footnotes below. 23 greene, alfred wegener. 24 b. tinz and g rosenhagen, ‘archiv der überseeischen stationen der deutschen seewarte’, promet. meteorologische fortbildung, 37.1/2 (2011), 53–61; alfred de quervain, ‘über die bestimmung der bahn eines registrierballons am internationalen aufstieg vom 2. juli 1903 in strassburg’, beiträge zur physik der freien atmospäre, 1.1 (1904); richard assmann, der königlich preussische aeronautische observatorium lindenberg (braunschweig: friedrich vieweg & sohn, 1915). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 101 german weather ballooning was a form of bismarckian realpolitik that evolved into wilhelmine weltpolitik. he initiative did not only come top-down but was also the result of a global mindset of german institutions25 enthusiastically taking up and expanding the politics and directives of unification and colonialism that emanated from berlin. scientists lobbied for national institutes on the level of the reich, institutes that moved beyond the role usually taken up by the smaller state-based academies and hilfswissenschaftliche institute (‘assisting science institutes’ such as observatories, gardens and collections) in the margins of german research university. after the unification of germany, bismarck supported scientific institutes that could help create legal structures for the reich superseding the member states and the individual universities, such as the reichsgesundheitsamt [imperial health department] in 1870, the statistische reichsamt (1872), the monumenta germaniae historiae 1886) and the physikalischtechnischen reichsanstalt (1887). with the reichsanstalt, germany also became an important global player in the standardization of instruments, with far reaching possibilities of imperial control; science, state and industry became more effective in coordinating their research agendas. in the board of the institute not only members of the government, the army and the navy took part, but in it meteorological instrument makers such as rudolf fuess collaborated with meteorologists such as neumayer and von bezold: all three of them were board members of the reichsanstalt. as a consequence, german meteorologists in lindenberg and berlin focused heavily on instrumentbased research-technologies.26 as helmut trischler has also shown, in a study on scientific aeronautics in general and engineering in particular, the supporting role of the german state and especially the military was pivotal in the development of twentieth century aviation research.27 in this article the focus will be on the navy; but the army was a also large benefactor of aeronautics. for the field of meteorology the year 1875 was crucial, when the norddeutsche seewarte [north german maritime observatory], financed by hamburg and bremen chambers of commerce, only three years old, became re-established as the deutsche seewarte, now as an imperial institute paid for by the empire. under wilhelm ii as emperor (1888-1918) these institutes became instruments for global expansion and he added many more scientific institutes, with the kaiser wilhelms gesellschaft as its most famous legacy, but for meteorology especially 25 on institutional agency, see: mary douglas, how institutions think (syracuse ny: syracuse university press, 1986). 26 cahan, an institute for an empire, 75-76; terry shinn, research-technology and cultural change (oxford: bardwell press, 2008). see also the many instruments in: assmann, königlich preussische aeronautische observatorium lindenberg. 27 helmuth. trischler, luftund raumfahrtforschung in deutschland: 1900-1970. politische geschichte einer wissenschaft (frankfurt am main: campus, 1992). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 102 important was the foundation of the aeronautical observatory under the emperor’s patronage, the flagship of the new aerology.28 but the german culture of national science was also a bottom-up culture, in dialogue with top-down politics. sabine höhler has already demonstrated the surge in scientific ballooning in germany between 1880 and 1910. according to her, this surge was the product of a culture of imperialism and nationalism organized from ‘below’, an alliance of national myth-making between individual scientific ‘daedalus-figures’ on the one hand and a bourgeois culture of aeronautical societies on the other. 29 höhler expanded peter fritzsche’s notion of germany as a ‘nation of fliers’ in the first three decades of twentieth century, a culture that produced zeppelins and hang glider cults.30 although höhler’s focus on the importance of society and culture is vital for understanding the development of a german scientific lobby for meteorological ballooning, this article wants to bring back the imperial state in the global diplomacy of meteorological ‘aeronautics’, or to be more precise, the new global science of ‘aerology’.31 german meteorologists played a significant role in international committees that legitimized state institutes of science. scientists in the international meteorological congresses and its aeronautics committees did not represent universities but national institutes. the german-speaking world however, these national institutes had freely exchanged german-speaking scientists with different kinds of historical affiliations. existing national histories have not, however, been able to fully explain the international commitment of german scientific ballooning and its role in 28 georg schreiber, deutsche wissenschaftspolitik von bismarck bis zum atomwissenschaftler otto hahn, arbeitsgemeinschaft für forschung des landes nordrhein-westfalen. geisteswissenschaften (cologne & opladen: westdeutscher verlag, 1954), 26–27. more on german science policy and academic disciplines: peter lundgreen et al., staatliche forschung in deutschland (frankfurt am main: campus verlag, 1986); david cahan, an institute for an empire: the physikalisch-technische reichsanstalt, 1871-1918 (cambridge & new york: cambridge university press, 1989); timothy lenoir, instituting science: the cultural production of scientific disciplines (stanford ca: stanford university press, 1997). 29 höhler, luftfahrtforschung und luftfahrtmythos, 33; 298. 30 peter fritzsche, a nation of fliers. german aviation and the popular imagination (cambridge ma: harvard university press, 1992); christoph rosol, “rotoren und leewellen. figuren der (in-)stabilität um 1937,” ilinx. berliner beiträge zur kulturwissenschaft, no. 1 (2010): 71–97. 31 theda skocpol, “bringing the state back in: strategies of analysis in current research,” in bringing the state back in, ed. peter b. evans, dietrich rueschemeyer, and theda skocpol (cambridge & new york: cambridge university press, 1985), 3–43. more on nationalism, international committees and discipline building: robert-jan wille, “stations and statistics. paulus hoek and the transnational discipline of ocean biology,” in soundings and crossings. doing science at sea, 1800-1970, ed. katharine anderson and helen m. rozwadowski (sagamore beach ma: science history publications, 2016), 179–212. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 103 international commissions. they explain why german scientists wanted to compete with britain, but not why they also chose to collaborate.32 what does explain germany’s international commitment is its imperial dimension, not just germany’s colonial ambitions, but also germany’s place in the european balance of imperial powers and germany as europe’s academic powerhouse. not only did many students from neighboring countries go to study in germany, but groups of german-speaking scientists who used to work for other empires were more and more drawn in, for now they had another ambitious empire to work for.33 germany became the stage for multi-national science workers. of course, between the congo conference of 1884 and the first world war, germany had a colonial empire, but even before bismarck’s ‘scramble for africa’ and even before his unification of imperial germany, germans had formed part of a global scientific network of ethnic germans and german-speaking scientists from russia to south america and from the north pole to africa. by 1850, the community of german meteorologists had already become a community with a global outlook, maybe even more due to germans travelling between the central european empires and the americas in the nineteenth century than due to earlier research in the british and dutch colonies. indeed, many german-speaking scientists had worked for the older sea-based empires in the early modern age. but even ignoring the many germans that worked in the maritime empires of the dutch and british in the seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth centuries34, many were also actively helping the geographical and scientific expansion of the great land empires after 1800, old and new. of course, austria-hungary was such an empire, and the scientific imperialism of the habsburgs inspired germans working in prussia, bavaria and the smaller german states in the north.35 these were not just empires in europe. while german-speaking scientists worked for the expansion of russia in the nineteenth century, others helped the new state of argentina research, conquer and battle the ‘deserts’ and violently bring under state control the natives of patagonia in 32 kärin nickelsen and fabian krämer, “introduction: cooperation and competition in the sciences,” ntm zeitschrift für geschichte der wissenschaften, technik und medizin 24, no. 2 (2016): 119–123. 33 for a global history of the nineteenth century with a large role for the german-speaking world as a center of academic expertise, but with an emphasis on its export instead of import, see: jürgen osterhammel, the transformation of the world. a global history of the nineteenth century (princeton: princeton university press 2015). for a recent article on meteorology and climatological data collecting as a form of state and nation building in switzerland (in the context of its neighboring countries), and for more about the swiss meteorologist in russia heinrich wild, see: franziska hupfer, “ein archiv für wissenschaft, staat und nation. klimatologische datenpraktiken in der schweiz, 1860-1914”, ntm zeitschrift für geschichte der wissenschaften, technik und medizin 25, no. 4 (2017): 435 – 457. 34 thomas biskup and martin kohlrausch, “germany: 2. colonial empire,” the encyclopedia of empire, 2016, 1– 16, 3. 35 see for example coen, the storm lab, 479. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 104 the conquista del desierto between 1878 and 1885.36 some of these german-speaking scientists would move back to germany, and many of them corresponded with scientists there. for german scientists in the nineteenth century, competition or cooperation were in the end just coexisting modes of reproduction of global knowledge. some felt that germany’s mission was to become a global center of academic accumulation and to bring academic technocracy to the globe, whether it was through peaceful and transnational cooperation, or through wars and competitive statecraft. köppen was one of them, although he preferred the mode of international cooperation. between state, reform and statistics: a german russian from russia to germany köppen exemplified the global german scientific explorer-bureaucrat because he himself came from a family of travelling technocrats. he was born in 1846 in st. petersburg. his grandfather had been a german doctor reorganizing the charkov state health department under czarina katharina ii; his father worked for the state’s domains, worked in statistics, ethnography and archaeology, and he was a member of the petersburg academy of sciences. together with a group of other scientists, military officers and civil servants, among them many baltic germans37, peter von köppen had founded the russian geographical society in 1845.38 wladimir later wrote that he had been raised by a russian patriot in a german house; he spoke russian, german, french and tatar fluently, with a family house on the krim, where his father had done geographical and statistical field work.39 the köppen family adhered to an ideology of liberal reform and national unity.40 because of the russian reform movement in the 1860s, his father acknowledged his son’s wishes to study the natural sciences, because ‘russia will have need of natural scientists’ to ‘exploit its natural riches’, and wladimir was first sent to st. petersburg to study, at the university. 36 pedro josé depetris, “las ciencias de la tierra en la fcefyn: breve historia de la investigación científica,” revista faculdad de ciencias exactas, fisicas y naturales 1, no. 1 (2014): 99–111. 37 such as the zoologist karl ernst von baer, the astronomer friedrich georg wilhelm struve and the admiralexplorer adam johann von krusenstern 38 the geographical society was an organization that united the opposition to the vienna congress conservatism czar nicholas i and united the forces of progressive nationalism, both panslavic russians and reform-oriented baltic germans in coordinating and expanding the scientific exploration of russia, a country large enough to turn studying national geography into the study of global climates. for more on the society’s history, tensions between the baltic germans and the panslavic russians, and the exploration of siberia, see: mark bassin, “the russian geographical society, the ‘amur epoch,’’and the great siberian expedition 1855–1863,” annals of the association of american geographers 73, no. 2 (june 15, 1983): 240–256. 39 else wegener-köppen, wladimir köppen. ein gelehrtenleben für die meteorologie, grosse naturforscher (stuttgart: wissenschaftliche verlagsgesellschaft m. b. h., 1955), 20–23. 40 he himself thought himself lucky to have lived in two begeisterungsreiche zeiten, ‘spirited times’. the first was the period of russian reforms between 1860 and 1864, under czar alexander ii, in the aftermath of the lost crimean war, with the abolishment of serfdom and significant reforms of education, government and the legal system. the second was the unification of germany under bismarck between 1867 and 1870. ibid., 17. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 105 however, köppen had to learn to value meteorology as an interesting technocratic field in itself first. after the death of his father, his older brother theodor sent wladimir to germany to study in heidelberg, and after visiting the meteorologist julius von hann in vienna, he started to study zoology and botany with wilhelm hofmeister, because he feared that his meteorology was a schädliche liebhaberei, a ‘harmful hobby’. he later realized however that through his meteorology he had learnt to practice ‘the mathematical method’, which he had used as a hebel, a ‘lever’ for the ‘progress’ of the other sciences, and especially his plant physiological dissertation.41 because of his family home in the krim, köppen had learnt to appreciate the climate differences in russia which were ‘larger than in the west of europe’. together with his father and his siblings, theodor and natalie, he took meteorological measurements at home and studied plant and animal life. his sister aline married the director of the imperial acclimatization garden in jalta, not far from home.42 in heidelberg, köppen first focused on biological and geological studies and only in the margins of his studies did he write a few first meteorological articles (on crimean weather or rainfall in the heidelberg region, for example) in the zeitschrift der österreichischen meteorologischen gesellschaft (hereafter the zeitschrift), thanks to the connections he had made during his vienna visit. as a typical german student, he travelled to other german cities for additional bildung, including leipzig, where he studied with the developmental zoologist rudolf leuckart. in his 1870 dissertation he studied the relationship between plant development and warmth, focusing on maize, wheat, peas, broad beans and lupins. thus, he was able to combine his own interest in meteorology with the new plant physiology made popular by german botanists such as julius sachs43 köppen wanted to answer ‘questions plant geographers ask plant physiology’: the interaction between organism and environment, questions that would later be taken up by german colonial botanists and ecologists.44 in the 1860s, charles darwin, the laboratory, instrumental precision and statistical technologies had created a culture of exchange between the natural sciences, the life sciences and meteorology. in that decade darwin’s halfcousin francis galton moved from weather maps to the study of life, but köppen went the other way.45 in 1872 köppen published a long article in the st. petersburg academy journal repertorium der meteorologie, in which he used laws of probability of specific weather types, 41 ibid., 27–37. 42 ibid., 24–26. 43 köppen, “wärme und pflanzenwachsthum.” 44 köppen, “wärme und pflanzenwachsthum,” 42; eugene cittadino, nature as the laboratory: darwinian plant ecology in the german empire, 1880-1900 (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1991). 45 nicholas w. gillham, a life of sir francis galton: from african exploration to the birth of eugenics (new york, n.y.: oxford university press, 2001), 140–151. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 106 based on past weather. köppen’s work was praised for its effort to tackle a challenging new field, connecting data for the benefit of weather prognostication, and an excerpt was published in the zeitschrift.46 having returned to russia in 1872, he wrote to heinrich wild, the swiss director of the st. petersburg central observatory, inquiring for positions. wild gave him a job as assistant. an alliance between empires: the vienna international conference of 1873 put in charge of the meteorological library, köppen learned to create synoptic weather maps, the daily production of which started in 1873.47 in the same year he accompanied wild as the russian delegate to the first international meteorological congress in vienna, organized by wild, the austrian meteorologist karl jelinek in vienna and the german meteorologist carl bruhns in leipzig, a follow–up to a meeting between the russians, germans and austrians held in leipzig in 1872. this alliance between the meteorological institutes of the large land-based empires mirrored the international shifting balance of power of that time. in the same year that the meteorologists assembled at vienna, bismarck formed the dreikaiserabkommen, a treaty that later resulted in a league (bund) between the three emperors wilhelm i of germany, alexander ii of russia and franz joseph of austria-hungary. only two years before, after the defeat of france and the german unification in versailles, wilhelm had been elevated from king to emperor. as his chancellor, bismarck now tried to rebalance europe around a new and more powerful german empire.48 in the same way, meteorologists from leipzig, vienna and st. petersburg unified a fragmented landscape of german, austrian and baltic german meteorologists, but did so under the flag of international cooperation instead of german power play. to vienna came representatives of state meteorological observatories from the whole of europe, including the ottoman empire. furthermore, the united states and china were represented by a delegate. only france was notoriously absent; french scientists in this period 46 wladimir köppen, ‘die aufeinanderfolge der unperiodischen witterungserscheinungen nach der wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung untersucht’, meteorologicheskii sbornik repertorium für meteorologie, 2 (1872), 187–238; wladimir köppen, ‘auszuge aus die aufeinanderfolge der unperiodischen witterungserscheinungen nach der wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung untersucht’, zeitschrift der österreichischen gesellschaft für meteorologie, 7.22 (1872), 369–75. this article was also noticed by nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century, 44. 47 wegener-köppen, wladimir köppen, 44; napier shaw, manual of meteorology 1. meteorology in history (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1942), 287. 48 the classic texts here are: golo mann, deutsche geschichte des 19. und 20. jahrhunderts, 13th ed. (frankfurtam-main: fischer taschenbuch verlag, 2011), 455; hajo holborn, a history of modern germany: 1840-1945, 2nd ed. (princeton n.j.: princeton university press, 1982), 237. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 107 were actively avoiding the german-speaking community after the franco-prussian war of 1871.49 however, the ‘enormous british empire’ (in the words of köppen) was underrepresented as well. only two meteorologists came, the scottish alexander buchan of edinburgh and the director of the meteorological office, the irish robert henry scott. 50 scott himself was not a stranger to germany: he had studied chemistry and meteorology among others with heinrich dove in berlin and justus von liebig in munich. another meteorologist with a german background was johan friedrich julius schmidt who represented the observatory at athens. from the 31 official delegates, seven each came from the german empire and austria-hungary. along with the uk, italy and belgium also sent two meteorologists each.51 thus, although alexander von humboldt had written most of his works in french in the first half of the century, the geopolitics of international meteorology became more and more written and practiced in german. this was a remarkable change in the balance of power; more than twenty years earlier, in 1853, the first international conference on maritime meteorology had been organized in brussels by western powers (american, british, belgian and dutch naval officers and scientists) and although it was visited by russians and scandinavians, neither german nor austrian meteorologists take part.52 it had partly to do with the distinct communities of maritime and land-based meteorology, but as they were merging, these communities were also fighting for ascendancy within meteorology as a whole. in vienna, the focus was more on the land than on the sea, and the land-based empires dominated. however, just as in other spheres of diplomacy, the balance would shift back again. christophorus buys ballot from the dutch royal meteorological institute in utrecht, active behind the curtains of the organization of 1853 and very vocal at the vienna conference, had proposed in advance a series of observation stations in distant areas and also a central office for the exchange of publications; his proposal was not adopted but would become a leitmotiv for the next decades.53 buys ballot represented the maritime wing of the international community. christophorus buys ballot was not the only one to propose an international plan. in vienna, wild suggested that ‘in order to investigate the weather phenomena of the higher strata of the atmosphere, more numerous observations should be made on isolated mountain peaks, as 49 report of the proceedings of the meteorological congress at vienna. protocols and appendices. translated from the official report (london: her majesty’s stationery office, 1874). 50 wegener-köppen, wladimir köppen, 45. 51 one was sent by norway, sweden, denmark, the netherlands, switzerland, spain, portugal, greece, china, russia and the united states. next to the official guests were the visitors: all of them austrians, except for köppen and august petermann from the justus-perthes publishing house in gotha, germany. 52 azadeh achbari, “building networks for science: conflict and cooperation in nineteenth-century global marine studies,” isis 106, no. 2 (june 2015): 257–282; azadeh achbari, rulers of the wind. how academics came to dominate the science of weather, 1830-1870 (dissertation free university of amsterdam, 2017), 57-64. see also kevin donnelly’s contribution to this issue: “redeeming belgian science: periodic phenomena and global physics in brussels, 1825-1853,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 54–73. 53 report of the proceedings, 38, 49; edwards, a vast machine, 53. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 108 well as in captive balloons’, a proposal which everyone could agree on and which was adopted right away.54 however, it would take another twenty years before international coordination of scientific ballooning would take place. other russians had plans too. wild’s assistant mikhail rykachev came that year with an eight-points plan of coordinating international data, including the establishment of balloon stations. the editors of the zeitschrift thought his last point on balloons so important that it added a footnote prioritizing this.55 more striking was that in the beginning of the year köppen himself had also presented a plan in that journal, proposing the foundation of an international meteorological institute, most likely in the netherlands, a small, neutral and ‘advanced’ country, where life was cheaper than in england and the location central. european countries then needed to build more than 200 observation stations, with european russia alone signing up for one hundred. this was clearly the plan of a too ambitious young idealist, and the conference members chose to focus on other plans.56 it was buys ballot’s plan that had a bigger afterlife. he became the president of the next foundational meeting in utrecht of the international meteorological committee, after which wild became president and scott secretary of the committee. during the meeting of 1879 the committee became permanent and an international polar year was organized at the instigation of the austrian naval officer karl weyprecht, with the austrian navy establishing itself as a colonial power in the arctic. through austria, the sea came back with a vengeance, although the conference also saw hann pleading for building chains of mountain stations, as better alternatives to wild’s balloons.57 parallel to this development, imperial german meteorology would soon move from a fragmented and state-based orientation on land meteorology, with all its observatories before 1870 inland, towards a more expansive policy of coastal meteorology, following the establishment of the seewarte.58 in 1875 georg neumayer (who only became von neumayer in 1900), who had visited vienna as the official hydrographer of the german navy, but who had travelled all over the world focusing on terrestrial magnetism and had even worked in australia, became the new director of the german maritime observatory.59 he asked köppen, whom he had met in vienna and was already ‘gloriously known’ (rühmlichst bekannt), to come and join him there.60 köppen 54 report of the proceedings, 58. 55 mikhail aleksandrovich rykachev, “weitere fragen zur verhandlung für den meteorologen-congress zu wien,” zeitschrift der österreichischen gesellschaft für meteorologie 8, no. 13 (1873): 193–203. 56 wladimir köppen, “über die errichtung eines internationalen meteorologischen institutes. vorschlag an den wiener meteorologischen congress,” 1873 8, no. 2 (1873): 17–26; wegener-köppen, wladimir köppen, 46. 57 coen, “the storm lab,” 469. 58 barr and lüdecke, the history of the international polar years (ipys). 59 w. schröder, k. h. wiederkehr, and k. schlegel, “georg von neumayer and geomagnetic research,” history of geoand space sciences 1, no. 2 (2010): 77–87. 60 wegener-köppen, wladimir köppen, 51–43. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 109 already had a reputation: at that time he had published more than twenty meteorological and climatological articles in russian and austrian journals in his ‘spare time’.61 from 1876 onwards, he would be responsible for the daily synoptic weather map of imperial germany.62 the seewarte: a new german center for meteorology the seewarte was founded as a centralstelle that serviced the whole of the german empire with gathering data and doing scientific studies benefiting maritime meteorology (the first department), meteorological instruments (the second department) and storm warnings.63 in the first years köppen was active in gathering meteorological data, constructing weather maps and directing the third department for storm warnings.64 right from the beginning the observatory recognized the importance of international networks, meetings and cooperation: the germans worked together with the dutch and danish navies in making and exchanging data. a danish series of daily charts of the atlantic now became a dual german-danish project that would last until the first world war.65 the director and his staff members would report from visits to different formal and informal conferences and publish these in the annual reports. köppen attended many of these meetings.66 in 1879 köppen was promoted to the observatory’s leading meteorologist, and from that time on köppen had more space to expand what he saw as a more wissenschaftliche meteorology. it was a crucial year in german meteorology, because the second international meteorological conference in rome produced a formalized organization, in which neumayer took over from bruhns the position of member in the international committee, moving meteorological leadership from leipzig to hamburg. in the same year, the eminent humboldtian heinrich wilhelm dove of berlin died, an important german meteorologist in the 1840s but a conservative factor in the 1870s, according to many of his contemporaries.67 because it would take until 1885 until a permanent successor was found for dove, and because dove had been suffering with health problems from the early 1870s, hamburg took over the german initiative. was hamburg a center of national renewal? after a visit of köppen in 1875, dove had told him he would gift his library to the observatory, but köppen used his new position to 61 ibid., 160–161.: georg neumayer, ‘erster jahresbericht über organisation und thätigkeit der deutschen seewarte, umfassend den zeitraum vom 1. januar 1875 bis schluss des jahres 1878’, aus dem archiv der deutschen seewarte, 1.1 (1878), p. 6. 62 shaw, manual of meteorology 1, 287. 63 neumayer, “erster jahresbericht,” 4–10. 64 wegener-köppen, wladimir köppen, 50. 65 shaw, manual of meteorology 1, 166. 66 neumayer, “erster jahresbericht,” 10. 67 georg neumayer, “zweiter jahresbericht über die thätigkeit der deutschen seewarte für das jahr 1879,” aus dem archiv der deutschen seewarte 2, no. 3 (1879). see also achbari, rulers of the winds. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 110 challenge dove’s mechanical theory of wind directions.68. for dove wind direction formed the most important factor in weather characteristics, and he had therefore not needed synoptic charts, and extrapolated the weather from local measurements. 69 however, this image ignores the important groundwork in meteorological cartography that was lead in the 1880s and 1890s by köppen, his fellow staff members at the seewarte and contemporaries such as hann; köppen was by far not the only one aiming at moving synoptic meteorological map-making to frontstage. however, from his unique position at the seewarte köppen was able to work hard to put germany on the map as a major power in meteorology in these decades. he played a major and decisive role in the foundation of the deutsche meteorologische gesellschaft, the german meteorological society in 1883, as a consequence of the responsibilities taken up by the germans in the international polar year. until 1889, the society would be based at the seewarte in hamburg, after which it would move to berlin.70 in this decade with hamburg as germany’s meteorological center, köppen himself would try to combine all the different meteorologies that existed at that time, publishing 200 articles in the next 25 years and monographs in synoptic meteorology, climatology, cloud studies, atmospheric circulation above the oceans, cyclone dynamics, plant geography and maritime meteorology; from 1905 to 1940 he would write another 300. most of his articles were written for two journals: the half of it appeared in the meteorologische zeitschrift, the successor to the austrian zeitschrift, now aimed at the whole german-speaking world, of which he became editor in the year of its foundation, together with julius von hann, and another third appeared in the maritime observatory’s own annalen der hydrographie und maritimen meteorologie. 71 his most important monographs in this period were the 1890 cloud atlas under the auspices of the international meteorological conference, edited together with the swedish hugo hildebrand hildebrandsson and neumayer, the 1899 handbooks klimalehre and grundlinien der maritimen meteorologie, and his two attempts in 1884 and 1900 at a map classifying the world’s 68 köppen, “wissenschaftliche luftschiffahrt,” 105; wegener-köppen, wladimir köppen, 47–54; gisela kutzbach, the thermal theory of cyclones: a history of meteorological thought in the nineteenth century (boston: american meteorological society, 1979). more on dove and earlier attacks by buys ballot, see: azadeh achbari, rulers of the wind, 119-177. 69 this resistance against synoptic maps has become a topic in the history of meteorology, a topic köppen would contribute to himself. according to köppen, through dove meteorology and especially german meteorology had entered a phase of stagnation. later propagators of the bergen school extended this phase of stagnation to the 1880s and 1890s in their own accounts of the history of meteorology: only after 1900, when aerological measurements became less sporadic, did meteorology progress again. tor bergeron, “methods in scientific weather analysis and forecasting. an outline in the history of ideas and hints at a program,” in the atmosphere and the sea in motion. scientific contributions to the rossby memorial volume, ed. bert bolin (new york & oxford: the rockefeller institute press & oxford university press, 1959), 451–452. 70 cornelia lüdecke, “gründung der deutschen meteorologischen gesellschaft (ära neumayer 1883-1889),” in: gerd tetzlaff, cornelia lüdecke, and hein dieter behr, eds., 125 jahre deutsche meteorologische gesellschaft. festveranstaltung am 7. november 2008 im hamburg (offenbach: deutscher wetterdienst, 2008), 41-47. 71 wegener-köppen, wladimir köppen, 160–193. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 111 climates combining quantitative meteorology and plant geography, a ‘map of maps’.72 köppen accumulated data, statistics, maps and subdisciplines to create a multidimensional synoptic meteorology. later, in the 1920s, retired and living in the austrian university city of graz where his son-in-law alfred wegener worked, he would with the same mentality absorb wegener’s theory of shifting continents into the new field of paleoclimatology. mapping storms and plants in hamburg köppen developed a third-dimensional look on weather in the process of extending the two-dimensional cartographical method. one of the first important transcontinental synoptic maps he made in 1881 was based on years of data (1873-1879), collected by him or collected and published earlier by, among others, american and danish meteorologists, on monthly barometric minima and its zugstrassen (a term derived from the american ‘tracks of movement’), a term still used today, although his fellow coworker wilhelm jacob van bebber later also used the term zyklonbanen or ‘cyclonic paths’. this map encompassed the whole north atlantic and the half of the neighboring continental masses, from the rocky mountains (felsengebirge) to the ural mountains.73 it combined synoptic meteorology with a thermal theory of storms, with the arrows as an extra interpretive layer over a continental plotting of barometric minima obtained by a form of extensive data crunching that was reserved for state bureaucracies or commercial cartography firms. köppen’s maps were appreciated by eminent meteorologists. his map was used in hann’s meteorologischer atlas, a series of maps published in the third edition of the renowned berghaus physikalischer atlas, together with another of his maps of rainfall areas in the world which resulted from his climatological map project.74 hann preferred köppen’s cyclonic path map to that of van bebber’s. in general, hann was impressed by the way german cartography had developed in the last decade, referring not only to the maps of the commercial publishing house of justus perthes, but also to that of institutes such as the deutsche seewarte, which also 72 wladimir köppen, “die wärmezonen der erde, nach der dauer der heissen, gemässigten und kalten zeit und nach der wirkung der wärme auf die organische welt betrachtet,” meteorologische zeitschrift 1 (1884): 215–226; wladimir köppen, “versuch einer klassifikation der klimate, vorzugsweise nach ihren beziehungen zur pflanzenwelt,” geographische zeitschrift 6 (1900): 593-611-679. on german plant geography in the nineteenth century, see: nils güttler, das kosmoskop: karten und ihre benutzer in der pflanzengeographie des 19. jahrhunderts (göttingen: wallstein verlag, 2014). 73 wladimir köppen, “die zugstrassen der barometrischen minima in europa und auf den nordatlantischen ocean und ihr einfluss auf wind und wetter bei uns,” mitteilungen der geographischen gesellschaft in hamburg 4 (1881): 76–97; wladimir köppen, “erläuterung zur karte der häufigkeit und der mittleren zugstrassen barometrischer minima zwischen felsengebirge und ural,” zeitschrift der österreichischen gesellschaft für meteorologie 17 (1882): 257. 74 julius von hann, atlas der meteorologie. berghaus’ physikalischer atlas, abteilung iii (gotha: justus perthes, 1887). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 112 functioned as the national scientific naval cartography bureau.75 cartographic practice restructured meteorological thinking.76 köppen was transformed by his map and atlas making process: it not only forced him to collect data more globally in pursuit of geographical symmetry, with areas that had seen either intensive or extensive data hoarding, but it also made him appreciate comparison as a visual tool.77 köppen referred to the clarity and symmetries maps create, especially the humboldtian plant geography map of august grisebach that appeared in 1867 in petermanns geographische mitteilungen [pmg], a very humboldtian journal, in which he saw all kinds of processes ‘working together’.78 his later, more complete and well-known climate classification map also appeared in pmg, after an attempt to publish his 1900 article there as well had failed.79 köppen practiced the kind of humboldtian science advocated by william whewell and which was practiced by the british tidologist and others, such as köppen’s main inspirations alfred russel wallace and darwin: science progressed when inductions from different classes of knowledge ‘jumped together’.80 in the library of the seewarte the works of humboldt, darwin, wallace and whewell were in the collection, from the latter both his many studies on tides as a volume of his history of the inductive sciences. 81 köppen did connect several ‘classes of knowledge’, but mostly he jumped together the many dimensions of meteorology itself. his meteorology and climatology went beyond the second dimension. first, it wanted more than just to map global climate and predict local weather: köppen looked for mathematical theories of large systems, such as cyclones and other storms, to which he devoted the most of his articles, as did many of his contemporaries, including hann.82 second, it wanted to go beyond the separation of land-based and maritime 75 letters julius von hann to hermann berghaus, january 31st, 1885 (pages 67-68) and march 3rd, 1886, spa arch mfv 19b/1 (nos. 108-109), gotha perthes collection (gpc), gotha research library (gpl). i wish to thank nils güttler for pointing me at the hann collection and these letters particularly. 76 güttler, das kosmoskop. see also: katharine anderson, “mapping meteorology,” in intimate universality: local and global themes in the history of weather and climate, ed. james rodger fleming, vladimir jankovic, and deborah r. coen (sagamore beach ma: science history publications, 2006), 69–91. 77 see also letters wladimir köppen to hermann berghaus, spa arch mfv 19n/7 (nos. 108-109), gpc, gpl. other letters, addressed to alexander supan, are in the gustav radde collection, spa arch pgm 026/2, gpc, gpl. 78 köppen, “versuch,” 41. more on printed maps changing the way scientists looked at their own field:nils güttler, “scaling the period eye: oscar drude and the cartographical practice of plant geography, 1870s–1910s,” science in context 24, no. 1 (february 3, 2011): 1–41. 79 wladimir köppen, “klassifikation der klimate nach temperatur, niederschlag und jahresablauf,” petermann’s geographische mitteilungen 64 (1918): 193-203-248. see letter wladimir köppen to alexander supan, april 28, 1900 (no. 356), spa arch pgm 026/2, gpc, gpl. 80 william whewell, novum organon renovatum, being the second part of the philosophy of the inductive sciences, 3rd ed. (london: john w. parker and son, 1858), 88. 81 see author index of katalog der bibliothek der deutschen seewarte (hamburg: hammerich & lesser, 1890). 82 kutzbach, the thermal theory of cyclones, 90, 150; coen, “the storm lab,” 469. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 113 meteorology.83 third, it combined meteorology and climatology with the study of biology, geology and historical development.84 in 1898, after starting his first kite experiments, the third dimension for köppen became the study of the upper atmosphere, as an important ‘layer’ to study atmospheric circulation, a topic that was related to cyclogenesis.85 for köppen cloud-atlases were different from meteorological maps, as they were not so much atlases demonstrating models, theories and data, but important instruments for measuring travelling clouds. they were the first global standardized tools for studying the upper atmosphere. according to an 1890 atlas ‘observations taken at the bottom of the atmospheric ocean are plainly insufficient to determine its circulation’.86 according to meteorologists such as hann, circulation of the atmosphere at lower heights must be influenced by atmospheric movement at higher altitudes, especially because of the big temperature differences between the poles and the equator, but it was hard to observe circulation at higher altitudes. in 1888 köppen had already written about the importance of air balloons, next to measuring the speed of cirrus clouds visible from the ground (for which a standardized terminology and an extensive network of telegraphs was needed), for studying the circulation of the atmosphere in temperate zones.87 others had picked up this theme too in the same year. among them was wilhelm von bezold, the new director of the royal prussian meteorological institute in berlin since 1885.88 in the 1890s a new, more aggressive culture of scientific ballooning emerged in germany, especially in berlin and the larger cities of the south of germany. in 1902 köppen found a way to take part: his weather kites. joining von bezold’s culture of scientific ballooning: a kite station von bezold knew what to do: claim back the german pole position in meteorology from the seewarte. coming from munich and being very interested in the atmospheric circulation above and around the mountains, he had made a pact with a new kind of ‘shipmen’, the luftschiffer, the ‘airshipmen’ manning balloons. at the hundredth meeting of the deutsche verein zur förderung der luftschiffahrt (‘german society for the advancement of ballooning’) he proposed cooperation between this society and his meteorological institute, creating a new field and 83 köppen, “die wechselwirkung.” 84 köppen, “versuch,” 41. 85 later, he would refer to the german-british astrophysicist arthur schuster, who mused about changing a twodimensional meteorology into a three-dimensional one: köppen, “wissenschaftliche luftschiffahrt,” 105. 86 hugo hildebrand hildebrandsson, wladimir köppen, and georg neumayer, wolken-atlas. atlas des nuages. cloud atlas. moln-atlas. (hamburg: gustav w. seitz nachf. & besthorn gebr., 1890). 87 wladimir köppen, “die allgemeine cirkulation der atmosphäre,” humboldt. monatsschrift für die gesamten naturwissenschaften 7 (1888): 449, 452. 88 wilhelm von bezold, “die bedeutung der luftschiffahrt für die meteorologie,” naturwissenschaftliche wochenschrift 3, no. 11 (1888): 81–86; wilhelm von bezold, das königliche preussische meteorologische institut in berlin und dessen observatorium in potsdam (berlin: mayer & müller, 1890). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 114 decade of scientific ballooning.89 support from the emperor and the army resulted in 75 flights with manned balloons and a three-volume work, in which richard assmann and arthur berson took over the practical initiative from von bezold.90 the power of the society movement and of the nationalist ideology supporting the scientific campaign has already been demonstrated by höhler,91 but it is important to realize that the meteorologist’s nationalism was more a form of imperialism combined with what paul forman and geert somsen have called ‘olympic’ internationalism, 92 a firm belief by contemporaries in the universality of science and in nations as mere vehicles of a noble battle on a global stage. however, national mythologies were created, both by german scientists and their competitors. in order to legitimate the berlin campaign, assmann turned to the lack of systematic scientific ballooning in the past: here was a mission for germany’s airshipmen. he categorized their french predecessors, from louis gay-lussac to albert tissandier, as sharp observers, but somewhat impressionable and prone to fantasy, whereas the british balloonists such as james glaisher had done their measurements in the 1850s in a more machine-like mode, without observing the clouds. of course, the country of philosophy and precision technology had to save the day.93 most of the speeches made by german meteorologists on aeronautical research, either for an international or a national audience, focused on national policy and the build-up of empire as mere practical resources for their kind of science. as soon as the cooperation with the aeronautical societies became less necessary with the coming of unmanned balloons, national identity building in meteorology became less important. national pride was often trumped by global disciplinary pride: assmann wrote elsewhere that he wanted to use balloons to change meteorology from a statistical science into a more prestigious science of physics.94 moreover, von bezold’s alliance with the military does not so much reveal a new wave of military nationalism in meteorology, but an appropriation of an alliance that had been normal in maritime meteorology. air balloon meteorology would become as important for the army (a distinct air force would only emerge decades later) as maritime meteorology for the navy. the alliance between von bezold, the emperor and the army was above all strategic. 89 von bezold, “die bedeutung der luftschiffahrt.” 90 otto baschin et al., wissenschaftliche luftfahrten ausgeführt vom deutschen verein zur förderung der luftschiffahrt in berlin, 3 volumes, ed. richard assmann and arthur berson (braunschweig, 1899). 91 höhler, luftfahrtforschung und luftfahrtmythos. 92 paul forman, “scientific internationalism and the weimar physicists: the ideology and its manipulation in germany after world war i,” isis 64 (1973): 154; geert j. somsen, “a history of universalism: conceptions of the internationality of science from the enlightenment to the cold war,” minerva 46, no. 3 (september 24, 2008): 366. 93 baschin et al., wissenschaftliche luftfahrten 1, 91. 94 richard assmann and arthur berson, ergebnisse der arbeiten am aëronautischen observatorium in den jahren 1900 und 1901 (berlin: a. asher & co, 1902), 1. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 115 but martial nationalism was a factor not to be ignored. it partly explains why köppen may have been hesitating to take full part in the balloon movement right away at the outset, as opposed to his future son-in-law wegener who partook enthusiastically as a young man in that period.95 köppen was an active internationalist. at that time he had felt very uncomfortable with the situation in his native russia, where the reactionary czar alexander iii in the 1880s and 1890s tried russifying the country.96 köppen did not only contribute to global standards for meteorology and geography, but also joined the esperanto movement founded by the russianpolish-jewish ludwik zamenhof. he translated his own meteorological articles for the esperanto internacia science revuo, including an 1893 article of his on geographical names, always a problem for meteorologists dealing with several languages and scripts (especially latin and cyrillic).97 köppen felt more comfortable welding and extending empires at the border than marching to the drums in the interior. but when the berlin meteorologists slowly moved away from manned balloons launched on public sport terrains and started developing cheaper technologies such as unmanned balloons and kites, and were taking experiments in private institutes in the united states and france as a more interesting model, köppen jumped aboard.98 in 1896 abott rotch, who had visited köppen’s seewarte in 1894,99 had started launching a series of kites carrying self-recording instruments in blue hill in massachusetts, and in the same year léon teisserenc de bort established a private observatory in trappes, near paris.100 kites formed a good and relatively cheap technology to study the temperature, humidity and movement of air in the ‘free atmosphere’ at different heights.101 a third player: hergesell, strasburg and rapprochement between france and germany köppen was not the only german who had wanted to jump aboard von bezold’s balloon and kite movement. a new person to play a big role was hugo hergesell, who worked at the meteorological institute of strasburg in the german-occupied alsace. but hergesell was a smart diplomat who invested a lot in cooperating with his french colleagues. his attempts mirrored an 95 wegener became a balloonist in 1905 during his berlin study period, where von bezold had motivated his students become a member of the deutsche verein: greene, alfred wegener, 82. 96 wegener-köppen, wladimir köppen, 31. 97 wladimir köppen, “pri la skribado de la nomoj geografiaj en la kartoj diverslandaj,” internacia scienca revuo 5, no. 56 (1908): 229–231. 98 g. lachmann, “neue drachenexperimente,” zeitschrift für luftschifffahrt und physik der atmosphäre 13 (1894): 301–303. 99 wladimir köppen, “bericht über die erforschung der freien atmosphäre mit hülfe von drachen,” aus dem archiv der deutschen seewarte 24, no. 1 (1901): 4. 100 shaw, manual of meteorology 1, 224. 101 georg neumayer, “einundzwanzigster jahresbericht über die tätigkeit der deutschen seewarte für das jahr 1898,” annalen der hydrographie und maritimen meteorologie, no. 2 (1899): 52. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 116 earlier period of official rapprochement between germany and france in the 1880s, when bismarck had actively supported a new wave of active french colonialism, to divert france from thinking about the loss of alsace-lorraine.102 just like köppen, hergesell found out while working in the french vosges mountains, close to his alsace station, that kites were ideal instruments for places that received wind from the sea.103 when in september the international meteorological conference came to paris, the question of scientific balloons and kites was added last-minute, so that only von bezold and the new directors of state meteorological institutes in strasburg and munich, hergesell and fritz erk were able to attend, with many others absent. after negotiations between the french, the germans, the american rotch and the russian rykachev, a technological committee coordinating international balloon and kite soundings was established: von hergesell became its president. after berlin, strasburg became a second point of gravity in german sounding of the upper atmosphere, at the border with france.104 just as in the seewarte, international exchange prompted national innovation. it was on a visit to st. petersburg and the magnetic observatory at pavlovsk that köppen for the first time saw a hargraves at work, one of the better functioning kites.105 during these years he started communicating with rotch and teisserenc de bort on building kites and visited teisserenc de bort at his new international ‘franco-scandinavian’ kite station in danish hald.106 in 1902 he prepared a 100 page report on american, russian and french practices, the use of different types of kites (malay or hargraves, for example), attaching specific lightweight instruments to them, working with lyres, finding an area far away from tramways and electric wires. he soon became the central kite expert, creating his own kite models, and in 1901 he organized kites for the german antarctic expedition of 1901.107 when in 1902 hergesell’s international aerological committee met in berlin, for five days, including presentations on balloons by rykachev, teisserenc de bort, von bezold, 102 also, bismarck had wanted to drive a wedge between france and england. later, the german-french relationship became somewhat more strained again, but the french would not again disappear from the international stage of science. nathan orgill. “between coercion and conciliation; franco-german relations in the bismarck era, 1871-1890”, in: carine germond and henning türk, a history of franco-german relations in europe; from ‘hereditary enemies’ to partners (basingstoke: palgrave macmillan, 2008): 49-60, 55. 103 hugo hergesell, ‘report of the proceedings of the international committee for scientific aeronautics’, appendix ii, report of the international meteorological committee, southport 1903 (london: his majesty’s stationery office, 1904), 29; hereafter report icsa. 104 hugo hergesell, “die wissenschaftliche luftschiffahrt auf der internationalen meteorologenconferenz in paris,” zeitschrift für luftschifffahrt und physik der atmosphäre 15 (1896): 241–245. 105 köppen, “bericht über die erforschung,” 5. 106 see for example letters lawrence abott rotch to wladimir köppen, july 8th 1901, no. 1377; léon teisserenc de bort to wladimir köppen, october 20th, 1899, no. 1745 and august 11, 1902, no. 1747, köppen correspondence (ms 2054), university library graz (ubg); [léon teisserenc de bort], travaux de la station franco-scandinave de sondages aériens à hald 1902-1903 (viborg: e. v. backhausens bogtrykkeri, 1904), 6. 107 köppen, “bericht über die erforschung,” 10. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 117 assmann and hergesell himself, köppen joined the committee in a session on kites. in this session, rotch and berson also presented. on this committee, a new entente was organized between the germans, the russians and the french. after more than a decade of diplomatic talks, hergesell and von bezold had succeeded in bringing the french into a new campaign of international balloon ascents. because they had to find common standards, only after which they could start coordinating the ascents, the germans had abandoned manned balloons in the period 1896-1900 for the ballon-sonde that was much more popular in france.108 also, a year before, assmann had invented a new type of rubber balloon that was able to expand, keeping a relatively constant velocity of ascent, delivering more reliable data, and which was easier to recover because it burst at maximum height.109 now, when köppen took to the stage and spoke about his 100-page report and his years of kite experiments, hergesell immediately decided to appropriate his work for the committee and sent a telegram to the vice-admiral of the navy, alfred von tirpitz, thanking him for the support of köppen’s experiments (‘the most important experiments that have come out of maritime meteorology recently’) and the wish of the international committee for more structural support for köppen’s new hamburg kite station.110 other resolutions of the conference were aimed at extending the european networks of simultaneous ascents to the other large continental masses such as north america, as well as the large mass of british india. it must have had a certain effect: in 1905 köppen was able to send a fellow staff member, wilhelm brennecke, with his kites on the sms planet on a scientific expedition to the south atlantic and the pacific. the planet expedition and germany’s new oceanic empire the planet was the second substantial scientific expedition organized by the german navy, and the first in which the seewarte played a large role. in 1874, only a year after the british challenger started sailing around the world, the young state of germany had sent the gazelle for an expedition around the world, a prussian warship rebuilt into an imperial vessel with a research mission, with one official scientist added. it was also a reconnaissance mission: it had anchored at several places at the eastern shores of new guinea. ten years later, during the berlin conference of 1884, it was not just africa that was carved up by the european imperial powers under the leadership of bismarck. western melanesia also became the subject of a scramble: in 108 protokoll über die vom 20. bis 25. mai 1902 zu berlin abgehaltene dritte versammlung der internationalen kommission für wissenschaftliche luftschiffahrt (strasburg: m. dumont-schauberg, 1903), 14–17. 109 paul beelitz, radiosonden (berlin: verl. technik, 1954), 90; john l. dubois, robert p. multhauf, and charles a. ziegler, the invention and development of of the radiosonde with a catalog of upper-atmosphere telemetering probes in the national museum of american history, smithsonian institution (washington dc: smithsonian institution press, 2002), 8. 110 protokoll, 61. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 118 1886, gustav von schleinitz, captain of the gazelle, became the first landshauptmann of german new guinea. between the gazelle and the meteor expedition organized between 1925 and 1927, the subject of penelope hardy’s article in this issue of the history of meteorology and a product of weimar nationalism,111 two other ships were sent out by the german navy for official scientific expeditions large enough to publish results afterwards. one was the planet expedition of 1906-1907 and the other the möwe-expedition of 1911. other high-profile scientific expeditions sent out by germany between the gazelle and the meteor used civilian ships specially purchased for the projects and sold afterwards: the national (plankton expedition, 1898-1899), and the two antarctic expeditions with the gauss (1901-1903) and the deutschland (1911-1912). of all these expeditions, the valdivia and meteor expeditions had commanded the most scientists: 10 and 11 respectively. however, the planet was exceptional too: already two years after its homecoming the results were published.112 the planet would set a new model, in an age of faster science, focused more on oceanography and meteorology than on marine biology. this development coincided with the growth of observation stations ‘of the second and third order’ outside europe sending data to the seewarte. there were fewer than 10 stations before the 1880s, mainly sending data out of south america; ten more stations in labrador and southwest africa were added in the 1880s; and ten more in east africa in the 1890s, when german activity in the north pole and the new colonies grew. the boom came between 1900 and 1914, with more than 180 stations reporting in 1910, almost all of them from africa and to a lesser extent the pacific.113 the planet (and later the möwe) travelled through all these areas of the new german empire: the african coast and through the indian ocean to the bismarck archipelago, not only doing aerological research but also collecting ethnographical objects. however, the planet expedition should not only be seen within the context of a series of national expeditions sent out by imperial germany and as an extension of the german navy into its expanding colonial empire. the planet was also an instrument of the new transnational aerology of the time. the trans-imperial expedition 111 penelope k. hardy, “meteorology as nationalism on the german atlantic expedition, 1925-1927,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 124–144. 112 the early expeditions organized before the planet took on average almost 28 years to fully publish their results, although this often depended on the last marine biologist describing all the caught specimens. the three expeditions after the planet took on average a little more than six years: here, oceanographers and meteorologists working closely with the navy to get the data out relatively fast. h. g. gierloff-emden, lehrbuch der allgemeinen geographie. geographie des meeres, ozeane und küsten 1 (berlin & new york: walter de gruyter, 1980), 123– 125. gierloff-emden also mentions the three private german expeditions to the north pole in the 1860s before the unification, the grönland, germania and hansa. 113 tinz and rosenhagen, “archiv der überseeischen stationen der deutschen seewarte.” history of meteorology 8 (2017) 119 between 1896 and 1902 the network of weather balloons had focused on europe, russia and the united states; in 1902 assmann’s aeronautical institute in berlin started daily ascents, as well as daily telegraphing the weather data to the seewarte so that köppen could process these together with his own kite measurements in his daily weather maps and reports. three years later, assmann would move to a new observatorium in lindenberg. over the next ten years, europeans and americans joined hands in bringing these networks to the oceans and other continents. hergesell had been able to borrow the princesse alice of the prince of monaco and the sleipner of the german emperor in these years to study the upper atmosphere in the mediterranean and the atlantic; he also went to spitzbergen; rotch and teisserenc did the same on the otaria in others parts of the atlantic; in 1905 and 1906 alfred wegener had left lindenberg observatory as an assistant to aerological measurements as the official meteorologist on the danmark expedition to greenland and asked köppen to send some of his kites; later, he would rent a cabin on the steamship tübingen to montevideo and buenos aires; italian ships had gone to the indian ocean; lindenberg sent arthur berson to lake victoria and nyassa; willem van bemmelen would do measurements at the royal magnetic and meteorological laboratory in batavia, and connected his findings on ‘westerlies’ to those of lindenberg in africa.114 the practice of kite science in the tropical seas the planet was in 1906 the first to extend aerological measurements to the south atlantic, indian and pacific oceans. the ship was equipped with the most modern instruments, with the seewarte organizing all meteorological and oceanographic instruments. the ship had an electric motor lyre (köppen himself had at the seewarte only one that burned on denatured alcohol),115 thirty kites, 48 balloons, nine kite meteorographs (or baro-thermo-hygrographs), six anemometers and a fuess ‘aspiration psychrometer’, among others. especially the psychrometer was important: it was developed by richard assmann and the berlin instrument maker wihelm fuess and had by then become a key instrument in the international aerology campaigns.116 köppen’s kite report was also in the ship’s library, as was his maritime meteorologie, hann’s 114 höhler, luftfahrtforschung und luftfahrtmythos, 296–304; shaw, manual of meteorology 1, 224; alfred wegener, thermodynamik der atmosphäre (leipzig: johann ambrosius barth, 1911); willem van bemmelen, die erforschung des tropischen luftozeans in niederländisch-ost-indien. luftfahrt und wissenschaft 5 (berlin: julius springer, 1913); adolf miethe, hugo hergesell, and prinz heinrich, mit zeppelin nach spitzbergen: bilder von der studienreise der deutschen arktischen zeppelin-expedition (berlin: bong, 1911). on the danmark expedition and the first letter of alfred wegener to wladimir köppen, march 28th, 1906, no. 1, wegener-köppen archive hs 1968 595 (wk), deutsches museum (dm), munich; on the montevideo trip, see, december 14h, 1909, no. 7. see also icsa reports southport 1903, paris 1907 and berlin 1910. 115 köppen, “wissenschaftliche luftschiffahrt,” 108. 116 höhler, luftfahrtforschung und luftfahrtmythos, 223. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 120 klimatologie and the first issue of a new journal founded by hergesell and assmann, the beiträge zur physik der freien atmosphäre. it was not brennecke but the planet’s young officer schweppe who was taught how to use kites by köppen at the seewarte, and instructed in using balloons by hergesell in strasburg. after arriving in the pacific officer schlenzka then took over.117 the crew had to practice regularly, because the ‘method of kite and balloon work on board was still in a stage of development’ and they had to practice in the bay of biscay. at the first ‘station’, with 5 kites attached to an 8 kilometers line, albeit invisible because of a cloud deck at 400 meter altitude, the line broke, and they lost 1 km of wire and one kite. aerology on a ship was a different endeavor. the person in charge of the kite ascent also needed to be in charge of the ship’s maneuvering. the ship had to find a good position in the wind to get the kite up in the air (with the help of a lyre), with the kite attached to the mast at first. they found that there were no rules for the ship’s ideal speed. the ascent of balloons was another thing: special diagrams and formulas were needed to fill the balloons with the right amount of gas, so that – with the ship’s speed and the weight of the instruments in mind – the ascent and descent were relatively stable. the ship also had to retrieve the balloon again at sea; most of the time quite soon after the ascent the balloon was lost out of sight, even with clear skies.118 kiting on water meant paying less attention to the wire – the free oceanic space was less destructive – but more to the kite itself, which often did not survive a crash in the ocean.119 opening up colonial skies having travelled further to lisbon’s torre de belem, the officers mused about vasco da gama and humboldt who had travelled to the cape of good hope, india and america, and concluded that the ‘scientific disclosure’ of the world was still not finished. on the first thursday of the month, an ‘international day’ on which meteorological observations were made across the world, they tried to raise their kites into the air as well. this international day had started as a structural project at the milan conference of the international commission for scientific aeronautics.120 the map in the final travel report showed two things. it first showed the route that the planet took, following the african coast, going south from cape town almost twenty degrees, then back north, over madagascar and the maldives to british ceylon. from ceylon they went to the dutch indies, south of sumatra and java, turning between bali and lombok towards the 117 korvetten-kapitän lübbert, ed., forschungsreise s. m. s. “planet”1906/7 i. reisebeschreibung (berlin: karl siegismund, 1909), i–xviii. 118 hugo hergesell et al., eds., forschungsreise s.m.s. “planet” 1906/7, ii. band aerologie (berlin: karl siegismund, 1909), 50–60. 119 köppen, “wissenschaftliche luftschiffahrt,” 108. 120 ibid., 3. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 121 moluccas and the bismarck archipelago. from their german colony they went to the american philippines and hong kong. second, the map also showed the cities of the eurasian continent that took part in the monthly ascents, with south asia and africa – except for cairo – empty, and an impressive string of russian cities from st. petersburg to omsk. west of this string there were almost thirty stations, mostly in germany, russian poland and the alps, and interestingly, great britain, which had suddenly caught up with the other great powers in aerological soundings. by pairing the strings of european land observatories to the route of the planet, the goal of the map was to demonstrate the pioneering mission of the planet and the ‘blank spot’ it had to fill; the tropical atmosphere that hung above the maritime and land economies of asia. while imperial powers competed in getting political and economic access or even hegemony in these economies, the german meteorologists contributed to opening up the tropical skies.121 from this first trip, köppen drew two general conclusions from the data: first, above the oceans, just as on the land, the atmosphere changed from one mächtige (mighty) layer to another, from one where the temperature dropped at higher altitudes to one where it rose (a so-called ‘inversion’), or one where it stayed constant (a so-called ‘isotherm’). second, the atmosphere above the inversion layers above the sea were normally as dry as the atmosphere at the immediate surface of deserts – a phenomenon only known from winters in moderate zones, whereas köppen expected the conditions in the tropics to be more like the summers in europe. this begged for more measuring. all in all, the planet was a first act in tropical aerology. it was a pilot. other europeans would take it up, among them the dutch meteorologist willem van bemmelen, who started soundings with manned and unmanned balloons in batavia from 1910 onwards. van bemmelen had already visited strasburg. outside europe, the first colonial bureaucrats started to take over from the occasional visiting ship.122 in germany, köppen continued working on kites until 1913, when the kite station burned down and the first world war broke out. this was the end of the german imperial dream, at least for köppen. in 1919, a year after the fall of the empire, köppen retired, and in 1924 he moved to austrian graz to live with his daughter and son-in-law. alfred wegener had a position as meteorologist and geophysicist at the university there, and köppen continued cooperating with wegener on his theory of continental movement and paleoclimatology. köppen would keep publishing works in ‘dynamical climatology’ until 1940, when he died of old age in the first year of the second world war. 121 during the journey, the members of the planet observed the power struggles of other colonial nations: in the harbor of batavia, for example, they encountered only one dutch warship, and found out that all other warships were sent to lombok and bali to wage a colonial war against the rajah of bali, which ended with a ritual suicide, puputan, or in the words of the german officers, a ‘heroic fight to the death’ of the rajah of denpasar and many hundreds of his followers mown down by dutch gunfire. ibid., 67–70. 122 mahony, “for an empire of ‘all types of climate’: meteorology as an imperial science.” history of meteorology 8 (2017) 122 conclusion this article has demonstrated the role of germany and the german-speaking world in the imperial construction of global aerology, and especially the role of wladimir köppen and his kite work at the deutsche seewarte, working closely together with german-speaking meteorologists such as wind, hann, von bezold and hergesell. köppen was a ‘baltic german’ migrant in germany operating in a world of competing empires. both land empires such as russia and austria-hungary and maritime empires such as great britain, france and the netherlands had created a stage for global meteorology, in which a race was imagined between imperial science programs. germany played the role of global middle man, concurrently a continental empire and an aspiring maritime empire. it is important that the social and imperial history of the german scientist does not focus on the german state alone, but focuses on the german-speaking community as a transnational scientific force of science and state formation. german scientists had created a niche for themselves in the nineteenth century (and even before), as civil servants in an emerging world of high imperialism, competing for ascendancy in the technosphere, with the ‘free atmosphere’ as a trans-imperial space. the problematic figure of the german apolitical opportunistic migrant-scientist, selling their work to different governments and political regimes, each with their own imperial ambitions, was made famous as a trope by the cold war hollywood blockbuster the right stuff, directed by philip kaufman in 1983. this movie was an adaptation of tom wolfe’s 1979 novel of the same name dealing with the american-russian space race in the 1950s.123 when in one of the movie’s scenes senator lyndon b. johnson complains about the germans helping the soviets building satellites, gaining ‘the high ground’, and surpassing the roman and british empires with their roads and ships, but most of all the americans with their air planes, a fictional version of wernher von braun, the german architect of the american space program, steps forward and replies to the senator with a heavy accent: ‘no, […] our germans are better than their germans’.124 just like all other scientists, german meteorologists were very political and not just opportunistic: many of them invested a lot in empire-making. however, these empires were often, but not always, organized around the specific nation-state of germany: more important ‘empires’ formed the wider german academic community and the global community of meteorology. for these two communities they were willing to strategize, whether that meant organizing kite stations or mounting large expeditions to the south seas. 123 see also: tom wolfe, the right stuff (london: vintage books, 2005 [1979]). 124 this quote may reflect a historical anecdote. andrew roberts wrote that ian jacob, churchill’s military assistant in the british war cabinet had said something similar once to him in person on britain winning the war because of ‘their germans’ being better. however, jacob made the remark decades after the war and it is unclear whether it was jacob or kaufman who came up with this. see also andrew roberts, a history of the english-speaking peoples since 1900 (new york: harper collins, 2008). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 123 the story of meteorology around 1900 was one of a global alliance of germans working for and moving between different governments and science institutes: a history of cooperating germanophones. after 1871, bismarck’s german empire would indeed form a new beacon for german-speaking scientists, and its government a very interesting new supplier of science jobs. imperial germany needed all kinds of german-speaking scientists for its new project of empirebuilding, at first in europe and later in africa and melanesia too. köppen himself was drawn to a government position in hamburg. his family had worked for the russian empire, he had been educated in german universities and he had worked together with swiss and austrian meteorologists, both in russia and in germany. he was an ideal candidate to work for the seewarte and expand germany’s meteorology. with the balance of power in europe shifting, germany was able to take the lead in the build-up of global aerology, in a period in which a german-austrian-russian entente and a german-french rapprochement under the leadership of bismarck created opportunities for international cooperation that were not directly abandoned when these relationships became strained again, at least not in the years before the great war. and at sea the germans cooperated with the dutch and the danish. it was a golden age for german aerology: in the years that bismarckian realpolitik gave way to wilhelmian weltpolitik, partly thanks to köppen german aerology became even transcontinental, resulting in a global scramble for the ‘free atmosphere’. acknowledgements: this research was made possible by two fellowships in 2015: the scholar-in-residence program from the deutsches museum in munich and the herzog ernst stipend from erfurt university’s research library at gotha. it also benefited from research done while appointed at the history of science chair, which forms part of the historisches seminar at munich’s ludwig-maximiliansuniversität during 2016-2017. i wish to thank cornelia lüdecke and the anonymous referees for their very valuable comments and suggestions and franziska hupfer and boris buzek for inviting me to discuss and present my ideas to the zentrum geschichte des wissens (eth / university of zürich) in 2016. microsoft word 1garden_el_nino.doc history of meteorology 4 (2008) 1 el niño, irrigation dams and stopbanks: examining the repercussions of the 1876-78 el niño in australia and new zealand don garden australian centre for the study of science, innovation and society and school of historical studies university of melbourne melbourne, victoria, australia our telegrams to-day still inform us of drought in the south [island of new zealand], of inconvenience and suffering to the people from want of water, and of imminent danger that there will be a considerable falling off in the harvest… in the north, though under a hotter sun than shines in otago or canterbury, we have as yet felt but little inconvenience from the drought, which has, indeed, been not so prolonged as in the south. the rainfall has, however, been considerably less than for the average of years. last night, there were symptoms that wet weather was approaching, but it may be some days distant. it is somewhat singular that of late a great part of the world has been tormented by drought. the famine in india was caused by the failure of the periodical rains; the suffering and loss in australia has been great; egypt is threatened with scarcity, owing to the scanty overflow of the nile; and we observe by the papers received last mail that the people of new york were alarmed that the croton supply was about to fail.1 the famine in southern india continues to be very severe, and it is much feared that the july and august crops will be a comparative failure, in which case the pressure on the indian government and food resources of bengal and burmah [sic] will be immense. the famine in northern china is far worse than in ceylon. an appeal from the netherlands consul-general in shanghai for subscriptions to the eastern world gives a harrowing account of sufferings and deaths, and no government aid is available for the poor wretches; each 4 dol. subscription is calculated to save a life.2 garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 2 introduction these are just two of many reports that can be found in australian and new zealand newspapers in 1877 that indicate an emerging awareness of the interconnectedness of climate, and of the shared weather-based hardship that was being suffered across large regions of the planet in 1877. they demonstrate an early consciousness of links that about a century later would be identified as manifestations of an el niño event which in turn is one of the extremes of the el niño southern oscillation (enso). such reports also underline the fact that the 1876-78 el niño is recognised as one of the most severe in modern history. mike davis drew our attention to it in 2001 in his moving exposé and polemic, late victorian holocausts.3 he gave a graphic account of the tragic results, particularly in the northern hemisphere where there are estimates of human mortality of up to 10.3 million in india and 20 million in china from malnutrition and droughtrelated diseases.4 australia and new zealand also experienced climatic fluctuations as a result of the el niño, though clearly nowhere near the extremes of monsoonal asia. my study of three el niño periods, 1864-68, 1876-78 and 1895-1903, and their impacts in australia, new zealand and the south pacific, is presenting a more complex picture of enso impacts than has often been recognised. these can be summarised as: the influences of el niño are highly variable; that el niño events often held back or retarded colonial settlement, although generally only temporarily; and that their impact on climate was a major factor in the development of public policy relating to land settlement and water distribution. some scholars will react to such assertions as representing a new form of ‘environmental determinism’, a term that is forever damaged by its association with race-based dogma and eugenics. what i argue has nothing to do with race, and is not deterministic in its full sense, but an assertion that the environment, specifically climate in this case, is a major factor in the economy, development, success and even survival of human societies. climatic fluctuations may be even more important in colonial settler societies where learning about and adaptation to climate are critical to success. the ‘discovery’ and experience of the el niño-southern oscillation (enso) in recent decades, and realisation of their impact on the weather in many parts of the globe, has stimulated not only climatological research. awareness has been raised that enso, more specifically el niño events, have been influential in human history, and a great deal of research has been undertaken to discover the ways they have shaped the human experience. consciousness of el niño has come to act as a prism through which we can view the past. however, one problem with this prism (or indeed in focussing on any singular phenomenon in an historical study) is that distortion and over-emphasis are all too easily portrayed by the writer, or perceived by the reader. it is often difficult to identify with absolute certainty both el niño-related weather phenomena and their repercussions. however, it is possible to observe trends, and to conclude on the basis of available evidence and probability, that el niños have at times significantly shaped weather events in australia and new zealand. in australia this produces a higher likelihood of droughts and, depending on location, either droughts or floods in new zealand. the response to droughts in australia has been to encourage water conservation, manipulation and redistribution, as can be epitomised by the construction of irrigation dams and artesian bores. in new zealand, by contrast, the response to heavy precipitation and flooding that is often a result of el niño events, has been to try to control an excess of water, as epitomised by the construction of levee banks, or stopbanks as they are known locally. history of meteorology 4 (2008) 3 in this article i focus on some aspects of the 1876-78 el niño in australia and new zealand. it has become very clear from my study that despite the newspaper reports cited above, in this el niño as in others, not only were the weather effects far from uniform across the globe, or in the southern hemisphere, but even within australia and new zealand the weather in 187678 was notably uneven. there are three principal points i will argue. the first is the variability of el niños both spatially and chronologically. in india, china and new zealand 1877 and 1878 were the most affected years. in australia it was 1876 and/or 1877 that showed significant rainfall changes in most regions, and only in a minority of places did 1878 show signs of a rainfall deficit. second, that while there was drought in australia it was not one of the most serious since european settlement, and had less impact than those that preceded and followed. it was erratic, profound in some places, but relatively short and sometimes mild in its impact. this raises the whole question of the definition of drought – and very roughly i include three criteria in my working definition. an extended period of substantially below average rainfall. by extended, i mean one of sufficient length to cause widespread natural repercussions such as very low flows in water systems and the decline and death of indigenous flora and fauna. this is an ecological drought. by extended, i also mean sufficient to cause widespread economic and social harm to human populations. this is a human drought. (one of the issues here is that there are or were different levels of aridity that triggered ecological and human droughts. australian ecosystems, for example, have evolved over millennia to survive aridity and el niño droughts. western agriculture and pastoralism have not, and in many ways were unsuited or inappropriate within such an environment. however, human intervention in the environment and damage to ecosystems reduced their tolerance for aridity, lowered their capacity to survive and brought the onset triggers of ecological and human droughts closer together.) the third point is that the principal effects of the el niño in new zealand in some regions were often the opposite of what has normally been described – not droughts but high precipitation and floods. el niño-southern oscillation (enso) the basic outline of the complex relationships between sea surface temperatures and the southern oscillation index (the see-saw of barometric pressures measured between darwin and tahiti) which we know as enso was brought together in the 1960s by jacob bjerknes. however, it was the severe el niños of 1982-83 and then the late 1990s that really attracted attention to the phenomena and promoted scientific research and public knowledge.5 these days there would be few people in australia and new zealand who would not recognise the name of el niño, and perhaps even the opposite extreme, la niña. it is widely understood that during an el niño there is a greater likelihood of storms and rains in the eastern pacific – along the coasts of central america and adjacent coastlines in south america and california. in the central and eastern tropical pacific there is a greater likelihood of cyclones. by contrast, in the western equatorial pacific and further west the monsoon rains are disrupted and severe droughts can occur in south-east asia, china and india. in australia there is a high likelihood of below average rainfall, and in new zealand there is an unusual patchwork garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 4 effect. even wider connections have been seen – richard grove has famously or infamously attributed the french revolution at least partly to el niño.6 these repercussions are largely a response to a reversal of the walker circulation, the east-west circulation of air across the equatorial pacific that normally produces prevailing easterly trade winds (see figure 1). when, for unknown reasons, warm water pools in the eastern pacific, often near christmas, (hence the name el niño or boy child), it reduces the ‘normal’ flow of air along the equator, and can even reverse the wind pattern. higher barometric pressures to australia’s north can disrupt the monsoon and push the hadley cell southward, which in turn displaces the rain-bearing systems that cross the southern half of the australian continent. rains fail and drought can result. fig. 1. walker circulation – typical pattern and during an el niño. bureau of meteorology, australia. source: http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/analclim/elnino.htm. identification of when el niños occurred in the 20th century is not very difficult as there is comprehensive data for the main indicators – sea surface temperatures in the pacific and the southern oscillation index. the second half of the 19th century is a bit less certain, but collection of weather and associated data gathered significant pace and enables the compilation of sst and soi data that permit a generally accepted chronology of when the most severe el niños occurred. prior to the mid-nineteenth century, however, climatic events and influences are less clear, but there has been major research using proxy data to establish the main outlines, especially in south america – research in areas such as dendrochronology, palynology and ice cores, as well as diverse written records of storms, floods and agricultural production. this has history of meteorology 4 (2008) 5 given a general although not universally accepted chronology of el niños going back over several centuries.7 figure 2 is an example of a compilation of sea surface temperatures for the period of my study. it clearly shows the high spikes of sst that indicate an el niño event, and very notably that the most pronounced was in 1877-78.8 however, the effect of that el niño on regional weather was far from uniform and there is marked spatial and chronological variability. the effects in australia tended to be brief and erratic, while in new zealand they were rather more severe. fig. 2. sea surface temperatures, 1860-1905. source: royal netherlands meteorological institute, http://climexp.knmi.nl/. sources weather recording had only just begun in the australian colonies and new zealand in the 1870s, so even where it exists rainfall data cannot always be taken as highly accurate. there are questions about how representative some of the early stations were of the locality in which they were established, and recorded data depend on such matters as the reliability of the local person given charge of the weather station. hard meteorological data, even when it does exist, can give only a limited insight into climate history. that is one reason why, as an historian, i have found it desirable and illuminating to use a wide diversity of sources when examining the effects of the el niños. in particular, local newspapers provide a rich insight into not only what was being experienced at the time, but also what was understood and asserted within the colonial cultures about the climatic conditions and weather. local papers often provide rich accounts that are an invaluable source for insights into the events and beliefs in a community. they also provide two of the historian’s greatest challenges – how to allow for the frailty of human memory and the distorting hyperbole of journalism. all too frequently in dramatic accounts one encounters such phrases as ‘the heaviest rain he has ever seen’, the ‘highest flood that our oldest inhabitant can recall’ or ‘it has never been so dry since settlement began’. almost as frequently, a check of the official records, where they are available, will dispute such recollections and judgements. however, these are garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 6 methodological challenges to be taken into consideration in the use of such material rather than insurmountable obstacles. it should also be noted that the rainfall charts in this article show only annual data, and therefore only part of the picture. monthly figures give a more complex view and indicate high variability; there are months with virtually no rain interspersed with months of well above average falls. reference is made below to a number of such occasions. south-eastern australia my project is using four case studies in south-eastern australia: around burra in south australia; north-central victoria and the riverina region in southern new south wales, centred on the murray river town of echuca; the hunter valley in north-central nsw and focussed on maitland; and the mary river/burnett river (wide bay) region in queensland centred on maryborough and bundaberg (figure 3). these were chosen because they represent a range of natural and climatic environments and economic activities,9 and for three of them there are rainfall records back to the 1870s. fig. 3. map of eastern australia showing case study sites: burra in south australia; north-central victoria and the riverina region in southern new south wales; hunter valley (newcastle and branxton) in nsw; mary river/burnett river region (maryborough and bundaberg) in queensland. history of meteorology 4 (2008) 7 annual rainfall data (figures 4, 5 and 6 below) indicate that my south australian and victorian/southern nsw case study sites were reasonably hard hit by a drought in 1876 or 1877, but 1878 was a wet year. further north my case study sites in nsw and queensland [figs 7, 8 & 9] were a little below average across 1876-78, but there were wild monthly swings in the rainfall. not shown by these figures (as there are no detailed or reliable rainfall records for this period in remote regions) is that further west in the arid pastoral zones of nsw and queensland the drought lasted longer and the effects were more severe. overall, the rainfall data for southeastern australia show 1876-77 as a time of rainfall shortages interspersed with good downfalls. in many regions, good rains returned in 1878. as a result, in most zones drought periods were essentially localised and short (no more than six months), and this was the key factor. while short and intense periods of dry can cause hardship, the most serious australian droughts (such as those in the 1860s, first half of the 1880s and 1895-1903) have all been the result of the cumulative effects of a number of years of below average rain. fig. 4. burra annual rainfall 1863-1886 and long-term average. bureau of meteorology, station 021011 in and around burra in south australia, 1876 was the only below average year during the sequence. there were good autumn rains in 1876 but by september there was mounting concern as memories turned back to the devastating 1860s drought: the prospects of south australia have, in the short space of five months, suffered one of the most sudden and terrible reverses known in the history of the colony. we say five months, for the rainy season commences generally before the close of april, and at that time in the present year we had no reason to apprehend a bad season… but the want of the annual rainfall soon changed the aspect of affairs. in the country to the east and north-east [of burra], a drought began to be feared; and though there were two or three falls of rain which did good for a time, they were garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 8 not followed up by more, and a large portion of the north country is at the present time a desert.10 dust storms became more frequent. however, from early october there was rain in parts of the district which alleviated some of the worst fears. wheat yields in the 1876-77 harvest, while poor, were not disastrous, and sufficient hay was harvested to avoid a hay famine. the wool clip was light and there were losses of sheep and livestock, including a high proportion of lambs, but the industry was not crippled.11 by the end of 1876, the worst of the el niño drought in the burra region was already over and the next two years would be quite good. there was minimal impact on the town and district, certainly much less than in the el niños of the 1860s, and the people of burra were therefore very receptive to the plight of the people of india: the burra amateur christy minstrels, assisted by lady amateurs will give an entertainment in the institute hall… in aid of the indian famine relief fund. the programme is a good one, and the fact, together with the goodness of the cause, should ensure a bumper house.12 the northern mail even felt it necessary to reprimand those residents in the district who did not give to the fund: ‘we trust that for the credit of the district, and the sake of common humanity, these persons will reconsider their decision and give of their abundance to the starving millions of india.’13 the wider south australian experience in this period has been told before, notably by donald meinig in the 1960s, although not in the light of its relationship to el niño as such knowledge was not then available.14 meinig showed that following the severe 1860s drought there was a major expansion of agricultural settlement, stimulated by several years of average to good rain in the first half of the 1870s. areas beyond the previous margins of settlement were thrown open for farmers on credit terms, and a land scramble ensued. the area under wheat grew by about 100,000 hectares between 1872 and 1874, and with generally high yields. by the middle of the decade there was a shortage of suitable new agricultural land and the series of good seasons had provoked such optimism that there was a clamour to do away with the so-called goyder line. this was a line of demarcation drawn by surveyor general george goyder to show the worst drought affected areas in 1866. it had latterly come to be interpreted as an indicator of where there was sufficient rain for agriculture to be viable; outside goyder’s line, it was believed, only pastoralism could survive. now, with the series of good seasons in the first half of the 1870s goyder’s cautionary line was ridiculed and abundant rain in wheat-growing districts and beyond was seen as proof of a piece of popular mythology that rain follows the plough. in 1874 the limit on settlement marked by the goyder line was over-ruled by new legislation, and more good rains in 1875 encouraged a wider spread of settlement, just as the el niño was setting in. given the reputation of this el niño and its effects in india and china, disaster in south australia might also be anticipated, but this did not happen because the drought in the colony was relatively short and mild. while the harvest of 1876-77 was about half of the previous year, there was good rainfall from early 1877 which encouraged further movement of frontier well beyond goyder’s line over the next few years.15 south australia escaped this el niño relatively unscathed. history of meteorology 4 (2008) 9 fig. 5. melbourne annual rainfall 1863-1886 and long-term average. bureau of meteorology, station 86071 fig. 6. deniliquin annual rainfall 1863-1886 and long-term average. bureau of meteorology, station 074128 in northern victoria and southern new south wales new areas were also opening for agricultural settlement in the 1870s and farmers there were also relatively unimpeded by the el niño. there are no rainfall figures for echuca, the main town in my case study, but melbourne can serve as a reasonably indicative substitute of the general victorian trends. these show 1876 garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 10 and 1877 as marginally below average, and 1878 about average. these were not the conditions of a severe drought. deniliquin in the riverina region of nsw was more extreme, showing 1876-77 as seriously dry, but 1878 as very wet. even within the two dry years, however, there was considerable variability. like burra, there were good autumn rains in 1876, but thereafter winter was dry and the ‘d’ word began to be used in spring, especially to the west and north of the murray river port of echuca where the riverine herald expressed its concern in august: fears are entertained in riverina that there is to be another drought. feed along the frontages is becoming scarce, and unless a plentiful supply of rain soon comes, stock will suffer great privations from the want of herbage, &c… the result of overstocking is already being felt; on some stations sheep are being travelled for grass, which is everywhere scarce from moama to the darling, owing to the continued dry weather, and the sharp biting frosts that have prevailed for the last two months throughout the riverina district.16 within a week of this being published, however, good rain fell in much of victoria and southern nsw and it was announced with relief that the ‘drought of 1876 is now a thing of the past’.17 this was over-optimistic and rainfall throughout the region was patchy for the rest of 1876. the summer of 1876-77 was a testing one as there had been little rain in the headwaters of the murray, and with the normal summer tapering of rain in the darling and murrumbidgee catchments, by january 1877 the murray was particularly low: the rivers. – as showing the shallowness of the murray at echuca at the present time we may mention that on saturday last a number of boys and youths were to be seen walking from the bank opposite the wharf, almost into the centre of the stream. the shell of the old “lady augusta” – the first boat that navigated the murray – is now several feet above the level of the water, and in all probability two or three more weeks will see the close of the river season. both on the murrumbidgee and the darling several of the steamers belonging to this port are stuck and have had to discharge or lighten cargo. our correspondent at hay telegraphed to us that the river there was scarcely four feet above summer level and we learn privately that it was then falling.18 despite the el niño there were encouragingly good autumn and winter rains in 1877 and the herald reported in may: the accounts from all parts of victoria, as well as from the neighboring colonies, continue favourable. they agree, indeed, generally in reporting that a finer season has seldom if ever been known. in most parts of victoria the sowing has been completed, and as may be expected, the appearance of the young crops is entirely satisfactory. during the last fortnight, in which rainy weather has prevailed, there has been no frost in most districts, and the genial and occasionally sunny weather has caused a great growth of grass. as all available means have been everywhere employed to increase the area of cultivation the ensuing crop in australia bids fair to be larger than hitherto produced, but, of course, everything depends upon the season continuing propitious.19 conditions did not remain so promising, and overall 1877 was drier in many parts of victoria and nsw than in 1876, but in agricultural regions the year was not a disaster. 1878 then brought history of meteorology 4 (2008) 11 good rain across much of the two colonies, which enabled them to survive the el niño relatively unscathed. the hunter valley in nsw and its hinterland showed the most extreme conditions of any of my case studies. newcastle, on the coast, was reasonably below average in 1876 and 1878, with 1878 the worst year in the sequence, a chronology shared by few other places. branxton, only 50 km further inland, was well below average in all three years, but most seriously in 1877 (figures 7 and 8). this made conditions in the hunter difficult, but because its rainfall is much higher than in the southern case studies it was not as damaging. besides, the drought came in short bursts, often punctuated by substantial rainfall which meant that harvests of grain and vine were generally sound. a mixture of inconsistent weather, semi-damaged crops and alternating optimism and pessimism marked the period, as was captured in this comment from the maitland mercury upon the branxton vineyards in march 1877: the vintage.—the vignerons of this district are at present actively engaged in the vintage. the owners of the several small vineyards and of large ones in the infancy of their bearing, have completed the task of wine-making with very satisfactory results as regards the quality of the wine obtained it being characterised as excellent. the recent hot weather and the necessity of a seasonable rainfall have been detrimental for the production of any considerable yield per acre—a great proportion of the crop in the several instance assuming more the appearance of raisins than of the fully developed grapes.20 fig. 7. newcastle annual rainfall 1863-1886 and long-term average. bureau of meteorology, station 61055 garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 12 fig. 8. branxton annual rainfall 1863-1886 and long-term average. bureau of meteorology, station 61014 in april 1878 a correspondent to the mercury described conditions that clearly did not indicate a damaging drought, even allowing for the hyperbole: you are rejoicing over the propitiousness of the season on the hunter since the beginning of february: how much more reason we have for unbounded thankfulness, who have been best with regular supplies of rain just as it was required, ever since the month of august last. never in the memory of the white man has such exuberance of vegetation been seen at this season of the year; the paddocks around here are fit to mow, grass is everywhere running to seed—there are not half enough of stock in the district to keep it down... people here are beginning to complain of too much rain; but it is not their health they are thinking about, it is the abominable roads in the district, that in wet weather it is a tell and torture to the spirit of man and beast to have to flounder through and over them.21 since conditions in the hunter were not extreme, the mercury tended to show at least as much interest in weather conditions in the pastoral hinterland, in new england and western nsw, where the worst drought effects of 1876-78 were felt. indeed, much of the reputation for the severity of the 1876-78 el niño in australia was because of the hardship in the pastoral industry in western nsw. it was reported of this region in march 1877: the drought. – the hay standard reports that at the rate at which the flocks are being reduced by deportation and starvation, there will not be many sheep left in the district at the end of the season. on one fine station, having an extensive frontage to the river, only a few head besides the stud stock remain, most of the sheep having been purchased by owners of more favored country. travelling sheep fare badly; of a mob of 25,000 store sheep that crossed at hay bridge, the other day, from burrabogie, for the darling, hundreds have been left dead or history of meteorology 4 (2008) 13 dying in the river bends, and it is believed that a large number must perish before their destination is reached.22 the reasons for the severity of the drought in pastoral zones were not confined to a simple deficiency of rain. there were three compounding factors. the first was the reduced resilience of vegetation and soils because of the accumulated effects of over-grazing by millions of alien animals which the land and could not sustainably support. indigenous flora was evolutionarily adapted for periods of reduced rainfall, but not for the repercussions of intensive grazing by cloven-hooved animals that ate them to the ground. the reduced vegetation cover also exposed soils to heat, wind and the likelihood of erosion. second, natural water sources were often muddied and exhausted, but even where they remained usable the vegetation around them (and the bores that had been drilled) was soon eaten out. more sheep died of starvation than thirst as all feed within walking distance of water points was consumed. third, these effects were compounded by the spread of introduced rabbits which contributed significantly to environmental fragility. together, these three phenomena brought greater soil erosion, evaporation and damage to water systems which precipitated quickly both an ecological and human drought – bare dry land, dead animals and economic collapse. nevertheless, even in arid pastoral zones there were some periods of useful rain during the el niño. across nsw, therefore, variability and diversity mark the experience in 1876-78. the complexity of the weather was captured by a newspaper report in december 1877: a telegram from gunnedah, n.s.w., states that the drought continues unbroken. there is no grass in any part of the district, and stock are daily dying in large numbers from starvation. the prospect offered by a few months more of dry weather is exceedingly gloomy, and unless the weather changes there will be famine in the district and all the settlers will be ruined. a heavy thunderstorm occurred at newcastle and singleton on monday, with terrific lightning and considerable rain. at the latter town the lightning split a tree near the public school. it is raining heavily in the goulburn district. distressing news comes from the new south wales provinces. last week hailstorms did much damage to the crops in the carcoar district. a great quantity of wheat is being mown for hay. the coonabarraban country is reduced to an arid desert for want of rain, and from nearly all the pastoral districts news comes that the sheep are travelling in every direction in quest of feed and water.23 in the wide bay region in queensland, as measured by rainfall at maryborough, all three el niño years were slightly below average, but 1878 was the driest (figure 9). the accumulative effect was potentially harmful but not catastrophic, and there was extraordinary variability within those years, with rainfall jumping all over the place. there were dry spells in each of the three years, but the driest were from february to june 1877 and june to november 1878, which were in different halves of the year and were sandwiched by well above-average falls. therefore, the impact on crops came down largely to where the rain fell, or did not fall, in the growing cycle. sugar did quite well and it was maize farmers who suffered more: with regard to sugar cultivation in queensland we find the following interesting particulars by a correspondent of the wide bay news:‘the sugar season is all but over, and without doubt it has been the best we have had since sugar became the staple of the mary. everywhere the density of the juice has been extraordinarily garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 14 high, and the yield all round wonderfully good. the season, though in the coast districts unfavourable to the maize-grower and the grazier, on account of the long drought, was exceptionally favourable for sugarcane. it is true that the dry weather somewhat retarded the young crop, but not to any serious extent, and the plants and ratoons of the season seem to have recovered already.24 fig. 9. maryborough annual rainfall 1863-1886 and long-term average. bureau of meteorology, station 40126 once more, it was further west in queensland’s pastoral zones that the absence of rain was most notable and reports tended to concentrate on those troubles, while closer to maryborough the patchiness brought hard times interspersed with good times. from june 1878 rain was below average, apart from a reasonable fall in september, on which the maryborough chronicle commented: the influence of the fine rains of a fortnight ago upon garden and field has been magical. arid, desolate tracts are covered with a rich green carpet, the flower garden has suddenly burst into a huge bouquet of bloom and beauty, and, what to many is of more importance, all kinds of green stuff for the table has suddenly appeared in succulent profusion. the sky and the earth have wedded, and bounteous nature has yielded her increase.25 even allowing for the local bravado and hyperbole, this is not a depiction of a period of harmful drought. in summary, across south-eastern australia virtually all places received less than their annual average rainfall in at least one year in the period 1876-78. apart from some arid western zones, there were few locations that did not receive at least one good period of rain in every year. it was a time of rainfall shortages interspersed with good downfalls. drought periods were essentially localised and short. history of meteorology 4 (2008) 15 prior to looking at these regions in detail i was under the impression that the 1876-78 el niño had been a major factor in two fundamental movements in south australia and victoria – the failure of frontier agricultural settlement in the former, and the drive for irrigation in the latter that resulted in the first major irrigation legislation. however, a closer study shows that it was dry years in the first half of the 1880s that had more impact in both regions. an examination of the most reliable international data shows a reasonable consensus that there were el niños in 1880-81 and 1884-85.26 australian rainfall data (figs 4 – 8 above) indicates that while the weather was patchy, large areas of south australia and victoria and southern nsw experienced below average rainfall for up to five years, with the likelihood of more severe dips in 1882 and 1884. my conclusion is that this extensive period of below average rainfall did a great deal more harm to pastoralism and to the infant agricultural industries in the three colonies than the el niño of 1876-78. the cumulative effects of these dry years and ongoing environmental damage precipitated widespread failures among the new farmers in the colonies. donald meinig has described the agricultural retreat from the mid-north of south australia where many farmers survived the first few years, but the deep drought of 1884 resulted in the abandonment of most farms and agriculture outside the goyder line.27 it became a country of abandoned farmhouses and ghost towns. in victoria there was not such a high level of agricultural attrition or human tragedy, but the climatic challenges resulted in the promotion of a brave new solution – irrigation. the drought of 1876-77 stimulated discussion of many schemes, and the advocates promoted a view, still not uncommon in australia, that there was plenty of water – it was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. human ingenuity and engineering, through irrigation, could fix that fault and make the deserts bloom. however, the 1870s drought was not sufficiently profound to trigger government action. by contrast, the dry years of the first half of the 1880s resulted in a series of government initiatives that established victoria as the main irrigation colony. most notably, one of those who became interested was a young politician and journalist, alfred deakin. in 1884, as the el niño bit, he was appointed to chair a royal commission on water supply. over the next couple of years his investigations took him to california and india to examine irrigation schemes. it is worth noting that nsw also held a commission on water conservation at the same time.28 the victorian commission’s reports and subsequent legislation, laid down many of the principles for water and irrigation in victoria, one of which was that government should undertake responsibility for major capital works such as dams and the main distribution channels the goulburn river weir, built 1887-1891, was the first ‘national’ work under the scheme. the response to el niño droughts in australia then and in the twentieth century, it might be said, was encapsulated in the construction of irrigation dams. garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 16 new zealand fig. 10. map of new zealand showing main sites affected by el niño, and the prevailing winds during an el niño event. in new zealand, as elsewhere across the british empire, there was some knowledge and concern about the dreadful famine in india in 1877, and money was collected for famine relief. the new zealand mail noted, ‘famine caused by droughts is slaying its thousands and tens of thousands of the wretched inhabitants’,29 and the new zealand herald expressed its horror that ‘the bulk of the people (15,000,000) are now emaciated with their ribs sticking out in painful prominence, and their skins covered in [sores]’.30 a public meeting was held in wellington in october, presided over by the governor, to commence collecting relief funds, and smaller communities had similar functions.31 the effects of the el niño of 1876-78 in new zealand present a very different story, both from those of india and the australian colonies. there was not the immense misery of india or china, but the weather was extreme, especially in 1878. unlike australia, parts of new zealand were abnormally wet and cold. it has been recognized for at least the last two decades that during an el niño some regions of new zealand experience below average rainfall. this is because during an el niño the normal westerly wind systems move further northward and cold fronts from the south push history of meteorology 4 (2008) 17 further north and east bringing stronger west and south-west winds that are colder than normal and penetrate further across the islands. areas in the east of the two main islands, the north island and the south island, especially those in the shelter of mountain ranges, are thrown into rain shadow as the winds become warmer and drier after crossing the mountains. the regions most affected are around the hawkes bay (napier and hastings) and poverty bay (gisborne) regions of the north island, and on the canterbury plains (adjacent to christchurch) and parts of central otago (inland from dunedin) on the south island. the data for napier (figure 11) show that 1876-78 was a dry period although 1878 was the only significantly below-average year. what is not shown is that the total for 1877 was boosted by a large downpour in february and therefore gives a somewhat distorted picture, as i discuss below. christchurch (figure 12) was below average in all three years, and this indicates that the canterbury plains were seriously affected. by contrast, dunedin’s rainfall (figure 13) seems to indicate that it was little affected, which is also a slight distortion, as i explain below. fig. 11. napier annual rainfall 1876-78 and long-term average. national institute of water & atmospheric research, new zealand, station 2982 garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 18 fig. 12. christchurch annual rainfall 1876-78 and long-term average. national institute of water & atmospheric research, new zealand, station 4858 fig. 13. dunedin annual rainfall 1876-78 and long-term average. national institute of water & atmospheric research, new zealand, station 5378 history of meteorology 4 (2008) 19 so, yes, there are rainfall deficiencies in new zealand which are often called droughts, although in australian terms they are short, mild and localised. except for 1897-98, and to a lesser extent 1878, i have found no evidence of nineteenth century droughts that have been long or profound. in recent years as study of enso has increased, there has been wider acceptance that the effects of an el niño are not limited to below-average rain in eastern zones. 32 there is actually a more dramatic effect. the stronger, colder and moister-than-normal onshore winds that occur during an el niño, particularly in the west and south-west of the south island, produce a disproportionate number of new zealand’s most extreme wet and cold weather events storms, snow and rainfall and resulting floods. snowfalls provide perhaps the best correlation. allowing for problems of definition and identification, the main snowfalls on the south island up to the 1970s occurred in 1867, 1878, 1888, 1895, 1903, 1931, 1939, 1945, 1967 and 1972. every one of these is clearly within or is closely associated with an el niño period. such a correlation is more than coincidental! fig. 14. hokitika south annual rainfall 1876-78 and long-term average. national institute of water & atmospheric research, new zealand, station 3907. many parts of new zealand normally have substantial rainfall, and floods are not infrequent. however, it can also be demonstrated that a majority of the most severe floods, particularly in those regions most exposed to el niño effects, have been concentrated in el niño periods. these vulnerable zones lie along the west and south coasts of the south island, in southland, westland and fiordland. unfortunately, there is little rainfall data for the 1870s, but longer-term figures show a generally consistent record of heavy rain, snowfall and floods on these coasts and their hinterlands during el niño events. such above average rainfall and snow can result immediately in floods, or can lay down such a quantity of snow that flooding can occur when the snow thaws. an examination of long-term rainfall along these coasts, and of garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 20 flood records, indicate a significant (but by no means entire) concentration of wettest periods and floods in el niño years. for the 1870s the only available rainfall data is for the hokitika south station (fig. 14), and these clearly show well-above-average falls for this generally wet region. the situation had been the same along this coastline during the 1860s el niño when the floods had been so serious that in 1866-68 the government undertook large infrastructure works (stopbanks, groins, etc) to try to reduce flood damage in hokitika.33 one of the paradoxes raised by el niños in new zealand is that the hawkes bay district around napier, which is generally defined as one of the regions most likely to suffer drought during an el niño, is also likely to experience floods during an el niño. it is remarkable that the area experienced four severe floods in the nineteenth century, each in an el niño period, and each worse than its predecessor may-june 1867, february 1868, february 1877 and april 1897. this is because during an el niño the cold and wet winds at times swirl further around from the south and south-east and deluge the east coast of both islands. for example, the rainfall in napier in 1877 was below average for much of the year, but a south-easterly downpour in february produced 355.1 mm of the year’s annual total of 851.2 mm.34 as a result of such marked fluctuations, which tend to be more extreme during an el niño, rainfall on east coast sites on both islands can be a hotchpotch of dry periods and intense downfalls. this phenomenon explains the above average rainfall in dunedin during 1876-78, most notably because of amazing 314.4 mm in june 1878.35 a major focus of my study has been on the clutha river catchment (figure 15). the clutha river is the main ocean outlet for a large and connected system of lakes and rivers that drain an area of 20,582 square kilometres on the south-eastern side of the southern alps. it stretches for more than 200 kilometres from areas of glacial ice and permanent snowfields in the alps quite close the western coast, to its ocean outlets on the south-eastern corner of the south island. about twelve kilometres from its outfall, just downstream of the town of balclutha, the river divides into two arms. until 1878 they flowed into a narrow dunal lake which had an exit to the ocean at its south-western end. between the two branches of the lower clutha lies a low and flat flood plain, effectively an island, which explains its name, inch clutha – inch is a scottish term for an island. this topographical configuration of the clutha system made it vulnerable to flooding. the very large alpine catchment flowed into a flat plain with a narrow ocean outlet, and the flatness of the inch and with a low central wetland was a dangerous combination.36 history of meteorology 4 (2008) 21 fig. 15. map of the clutha river system, south island, new zealand. in the early years before there were good roads, the clutha river served as a significant pathway for small vessels that plied the coast and used the stream to reach into the developing hinterland. a small port and township, port molyneux, were established beside the ocean outlet, and a townsite was planned that included an octagon or city ‘square’ similar to one in dunedin. there is evidence of regular flooding of the clutha system before european arrival, but human intervention in the landscape after settlement increased both the likelihood and extent of floods. sheep grazing and gold mining were two major industries, with two principal environmental effects. first, grazed and cleared land had less vegetation to retain and filter rainfall, and this allowed much more rapid runoff. secondly, soil no longer protected by indigenous vegetation or held together by its roots, was much more exposed to water and wind erosion. the soils in many areas of new zealand are friable and are easily eroded, notably on the garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 22 many steep hillsides. new zealand had always had landslips, but landslips now became a new zealand phenomenon, and enormous quantities of soil, silt and other detritus found their way into the water systems, silting their channels and blocking their outflows. the clutha experienced big floods in january 1866, during the el niño, when a weather system dropped a substantial volume of rain on accumulated snow in the alps. the snow melted rapidly and a flood rushed down the mountains. many miners were trapped and drowned, and there was a great deal of damage to mines and equipment. the water carried a load heavy of silt, trees and human debris. balclutha was deluged with the ‘most destructive flood within the remembrance of the earliest settlers’ and inch clutha was inundated.37 there were great losses of gardens, crops and stock. despite the setback, the mining industry, farms and the townships slowly recovered and development continued. however, in may 1866 port molyneux lost its status as a port of entry into the colony, and shipping trade on the river declined. there was an even greater flood in 1878. queenstown, which is adjacent to one of the lakes which form part of the catchment of the clutha system, is one of the few places in the south for which there is 1870s rainfall data, and it experienced nearly double its annual average rain in 1878 – 1525 mm compared with 832 mm average.38 there were unusually heavy falls of snow from may to august in the high country where mining was slowed to a standstill. on one pastoral property 60,000 head of stock were said to have died, and in lower regions rain began to swamp the river land. there were some colonists who had sufficient experience with local weather and conditions to realise that there were even further dangers in the build-up of so much snow. if rain and rising temperatures brought a rapid thaw and the already overburdened water systems were deluged, there was grave danger of severe flooding like that of 1866. one warning published in the clutha leader expressed prescient alarm about the vulnerability of the clutha region: i beg through the columns of your paper to call the attention of the inhabitants of balclutha and the low-lying parts of the vast district that drains itself into the molyneux [an early name for the clutha], particularly from te houka down to the sea, to the following facts. all over this vast district snow has fallen in such quantities as has never before been seen since this country was inhabited by europeans, ergo should a thaw set in simultaneously a flood is sure to take place that may in all probability submerge balclutha and the island, and sweep the banks of the river from above te houka of every living thing, knowing every inch i may say of the district from having traveled much over it, and having often remarked from the formation of the country that should a general rain take place some great disaster was sure to happen if the inhabitants of the portion of the district i mention were not warned in time.39 the worst predictions came true when late in september a warm north-westerly airflow across the south island and its snowfields brought several days of warm rains that precipitated a rapid thaw that flooded the clutha system. in the upper catchment, around the lakes, there was such an outflow carrying a heavy burden of silt, timber and other debris related to land clearing and gold mining, that the system was unable to carry the waters away through the narrow gorges. the rivers and lakes backed up and the towns were flooded, including queenstown (figure 16). history of meteorology 4 (2008) 23 fig. 16. queenstown in flood, october 1878. the clutha river and its tributaries were unable to carry away flood waters quickly enough and the water level rose in lake wakatipu and flowed through the town. source: alexander turnbull library. further down the clutha system towns and settlements were also flooded, and numerous bridges and river crossings were damaged or destroyed. at balclutha, much of the town went under water and the main road bridge was swept away. inch clutha became a sheet of water, made worse by the narrow ocean outlet at port molyneux that silted up and caused a backflow. however, on about 5 october the water broke through the sand spit to create a new channel into the ocean a little further to the east of port molyneux. like pulling a plug, it allowed a more rapid draining. there are many stories of loss, bravery and rescue. the most dramatic rescue story, perhaps somewhat exaggerated, was of a carpenter and his ‘housekeeper’ whose house was swept off its foundations and was carried downstream across the inch towards the ocean. at the lower end of the inch their plight was spotted and a boat sent after them, saving the lucky couple soon before the house was swept out to sea. the old school-house on the inch was also washed away and sailed ‘across the sandspit direct for the coast of south america’. 40 garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 24 the estimated peak discharge of the 1878 flood at balclutha, on 30 september, was the largest in its recorded history.41 any flood will carry a great deal of debris, but the descriptions of the 1878 flood are notable for their references to the yellow waters and the burden they carried, substantially as a consequence of human activity in the watershed. the floods did great damage, setting back farms, destroying stock, curtailing mining and demolishing bridges, homes, businesses and other infrastructure. a charitable relief fund was established. among most lasting and dramatic repercussion of the 1878 flood was the death of a town – or maybe it should be said that port molyneux was put out of its misery. a visitor to the area in the 21st century comes across a sign to point molyneux that confidently directs one down a road towards the sea, a few hundred metres away. however, just twenty metres along the road it is closed by a gate into what is now a private farm. the sign, in reality, points to a past aspiration rather than to any recent reality. the new river outlet that broke through the spit in 1878 bypassed the port and left it with a sandbar blocking the entrance to its silted former harbour. the town slowly died, the land was taken over for farms, and today the visitor needs a good imagination and a good pair of boots to appreciate the lost vision. when the 1878 floods overwhelmed the inch, there was work underway to build protective stopbanks or levees on the lower reaches of the clutha. these were small and incomplete and had no chance of stemming the flow – they were simply swept away. in due course, however, a major infrastructure programme was implemented, so that now along the lower clutha it is rather like a much smaller version of the lower mississippi –snaking its way between bordering levees. conclusion the el niño of 1876-78 was markedly uneven in its effects across the globe. in australia it was relatively short, erratic and mild. in new zealand it was more severe and produced a particularly severe flood in the clutha system. if you spend much time in australia and new zealand the contrast between the two climates and environments is very apparent. even without el niño, australia is a generally dry continent, and new zealand an often wet archipelago. what my study has confirmed is that el niños, such as that in 1876-78, aggravate these extremes. the australian response has been to establish infrastructure to overcome drought through water capture, conservation and redistribution. the new zealand response has more likely been directed towards channelling and expelling excess water, to achieve flood control through stopbanking, river diversion and overflow channelling. for additional details see don garden, heat, dust and deluge: el niños that shaped our colonial past, australian scholarly publishing, forthcoming 2009. history of meteorology 4 (2008) 25 notes 1 new zealand herald, 6 dec 1877 2 riverine herald, 1 may 1877 3 davis, mike, late victorian holocaust: el niño famines and the making of the third world, london, verso, 2001 4 davis, pp. 7 & 113 5 for discussions of the scientific basis of enso and its discovery see: davis; allan, rob, janette lindesay, david parker, the el niño southern oscillation & climatic variability, collingwood, csiro publishing, 1996; caviedes, cesar n., el niño in history: storming through the ages, gainesville, university press of florida, 2001; couper-johnston, ross, el niño: the weather phenomenon that changed the world, london, hodder & stoughton, 2000; nash, j. madeleine, el niño: unlocking the secrets of the master weather-maker, new york, warner books, 2002; philander, s. george, el niño, la niña, and the southern oscillation, san diego, academic press, 1990; 6 grove, richard, ‘revolutionary weather’: the climate and economic crisis of 1788-1795 and the discovery of el niño’, in tim sherratt, tom griffiths & libby robin, a change in the weather: climate and culture in australia, canberra, national museum of australia press, 2005 7 for the dating of el niños see: quinn, w.h, v.t. neal & s.e. antunez de mayolo, ‘el niño occurrences over the past four and a half centuries’, journal of geophysical research, 92, 1987; quinn, w.h. & v.t. neal, ‘the historical record of el niño events’ in raymond s. bradley and philip d. jones (eds), climate since a.d. 1500, new york, routledge, 1995; quinn, w.h., ‘a study of southern oscillation-related climatic activity for ad 622-1989 incorporating nile river flood data’, in henry f. diaz & vera margraf (eds), el niño: historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the southern oscillation, new york, cambridge university press, 1992; ortlieb, luc, ‘the documentary historical record of el niño events in peru: an update of the quinn record (sixteenth through nineteenth centuries), in. henry f. díaz and vera markgraf (eds), el niño and the southern oscillation: multiscale variability and global and regional impacts, new york, cambridge university press, 2000. 8 royal netherlands meteorological institute, http://climexp.knmi.nl/ 9 burra – semi-arid, inland, wheat, sheep and copper mining; echuca – semi-arid, riverine, inland, wheat, sheep, river port and transport; hunter valley – more abundant rainfall, riverine, semi-coastal, mixed agriculture including vineyards, pastoral, coal mining; wide bay – subtropical, semi-coastal, mixed agriculture especially sugar plantations. 10 northern mail, 15 sept 1876 11 northern mail.6 oct 1876, 5 jan 1877 12 northern mail 12 oct 1877 13 northern mail 12 oct 1877 14 meinig, d.w., on the margins of the good earth: the south australian wheat frontier, 1869-1884, rand mcnally, 1962 15 meinig; sheldrick, janis, ‘goyder’s line: the unreliable history of the line of reliable rainfall’, in tim sherratt, tom griffiths & libby robin, a change in the weather: climate and culture in australia, canberra, national museum of australia press, 2005 16 riverine herald, 5 aug 1876 17 riverine herald, 26 aug 1876; also 5, 10 & 15, 29 aug 1876 18 riverine herald, 1 jan 1877 garden, el niño in australia and new zealand 26 19 riverine herald, 29 may 1877 20 maitland mercury, 8 march 1877 21 maitland mercury, 20 april 1878 22 riverine herald, 6 march 1877 23 riverine herald, 6 dec 1877 24 riverine herald, 27 feb 1877 25 maryborough chronicle, 5 oct 1878 26 quinn & neal; ortlieb; royal netherlands meteorological institute), http://climexp.knmi.nl/ 27 meinig, d.w., on the margins of the good earth: the south australian wheat frontier, 1869-1884, rand mcnally, 1962 28 powell, j.m., watering the garden state: water, land and community in victoria 18341988, sydney, allen & unwin, 1989; blackburn, gerard, pioneering irrigation in australia to 1920, melbourne, australian scholarly publishing, 1999 29 new zealand mail, 20 oct 1877 30 new zealand herald, 13 oct 1877 31 new zealand mail, 20 oct 1877 32 for a discussion of the effects of el niño on new zealand, see: brenstrum, erick, the new zealand weather book, nelson, craig potton publishing, 2003; sturman, andrew & nigel tapper, the weather and climate of australia and new zealand, second edition, melbourne, oxford university press, 2006; mosley, m. paul and charles p. pearson (eds), floods and droughts: the new zealand experience, wellington, new zealand hydrological society, 1997; mullan, brett, 'effects of enso on new zealand and the south pacific', in braddock, deborah (ed), prospects and needs for climate forecasting, proceedings of a workshop sponsored by the new zealand climate committee, wellington, royal society of new zealand, miscellaneous series, 34, 1996; ward, g.f.a., 'the southern oscillation and its effects on new zealand weather', new zealand agricultural science, vol 19, no 1, february 1985; hicks, geoff & hamish campbell, awesome forces: the natural hazards that threaten new zealand, wellington, te papa press, 1998 33 rochfort, james, ‘on changes in the hokitika river’, transactions and proceedings of the new zealand institute, vol iii, 1870 34 national institute of water & atmospheric research, new zealand, station 2982 35 national institute of water & atmospheric research, new zealand, station 5378 36 mclay, evelyn m., stepping out: a history of clutha county 1876-1976, balclutha, clutha county council, 1977; rutherford, alma, inch: the reproduction and update of the story of the stirling and inch clutha, balclutha, alma rutherford and inch clutha committee, 1998; roxburgh, irvine, wanaka and surrounding districts, christchurch, upper clutha community committee, 1990; ‘report of rivers commission on clutha river’, 1920, nz parliamentary papers, 1920 37 otago daily times, 16 jan 1866; see also bruce herald, jan 1866 38 national institute of water & atmospheric research, new zealand, station 5446 39 clutha leader, 16 august 1878 40 this account based on clutha leader, sept-oct 1878 41 ‘report of rivers commission on clutha river’, 1920, new zealand, parliamentary papers, 1920 corresponding author(s) eleanor shaw, university of manchester, eleanor.shaw@manchester.ac.uk robert l. naylor, university of manchester, robert.naylor@manchester.ac.uk the 200-year cycle: an early climate-based reaction to the crisis in the sahel and its uptake in 1973 robert l. naylor and eleanor shaw1 introduction during the 1970s, the status of climatic change was elevated from a niche pursuit within the physical sciences to an issue seen as worthy of public support, coalescing in the first world climate conference in 1979.2 the reasons for this are multifaceted and complex. joshua howe has highlighted charged debates regarding pollution from supersonic air travel as an early entry point for climate into the political arena in the late 1960s.3 spencer weart has argued that the rise of environmentalism as a respectable political force in the early 1970s permeated some sections of the scientific community, leading to environmental problems, including climatic change, becoming a more important part of scientific meetings and debates.4 weart has also indicated that towards the end of the decade climate issues were utilised to promote the use of nuclear power—a tactic made more effective by successive oil shocks.5 as a final example, naylor has shown how the panic surrounding the world food crisis of 1973-74, as prices of food and several other commodities skyrocketed, opened the political sphere to some climatologists to promote climatic change as the root cause of these problems. this influential minority of climatologists exploited the publicity surrounding several prominent climate 1 the authors would like it to be known that they should be considered joint first authors. 2 here we define ‘climatic change’ as global long-term changes to the atmosphere irrespective of causal mechanism. 3 joshua p. howe, behind the curve: science and the politics of global warming, 1st ed. (seattle; london: university of washington press, 2014): 44–66. 4 spencer r. weart, the discovery of global warming: revised and expanded edition, 2nd ed. (cambridge, mass: harvard university press, 2008): 66–67. 5 ibid, 102–103. history of meteorology 11 (2022) 2 related events in order to emphasise the climatic threat, including a famine in the western sahel at the turn of the 1970s.6 many of these contributing factors reflect the new discursive environment that took root during the decade. eric hobsbawm identifies the period of 1973 to 1991 as the ‘crisis decades’ of the twentieth century, with increased concern globally about economic, social, and environmental problems.7 daniel t. rogers has argued that as a result of these various crises, the 1970s became an age of fracture, where long held common ideas and concepts in society came apart.8 so-called stagflation, the world food crisis, oil shocks and the end of formal colonialism in many places were just some of the forms of economic fracture and political fragmentation that impacted the production and circulation of knowledge. due to the desire to respond to and prevent these kinds of crises, the 1970s saw particular resonance afforded to predictions about the future.9 the desire on the part of american security actors, including the ford foundation, to not just predict but prevent apocalyptic futures hailed by movements such as environmentalism, produced the rise of future studies, a branch of futurology.10 jon agar argues that the ‘burgeoning interest in longer-term, futurological study’ made it possible for scientists to justify the importance of climatic change to the uk government.11 rogers also identifies the period as one of contagion where, in the face of economic crisis and identity conflict, “versatile sets of ideas” moved through increasingly permeable disciplinary boundaries, reworked and reused for new occasions.12 michael egan uses michael soule’s term “crisis disciplines” to frame the response of scientists to the new challenges of the 1970s.13 egan argues that a section of the scientific community, faced with social challenges and the threat of ecological collapse, reformulated itself into a reactionary, adisciplinary, politically engaged, “acting before knowing all the facts” corpus. one of the intentions of these crisis disciplines was to “rehabilitate” science with an increasingly disparaging public by directly engaging with those issues deemed most pressing. crisis disciplines combined the increased appetite for predictions of the future, and the tendency to collapse disciplinary boundaries into a new set of academic practises. 6 robert l naylor, “reid bryson: the crisis climatologist,” wires climate change, 2021, e744. in this paper we have primarily referred to the crisis in the sahel in the early 1970s as a famine as this emphasises the impact on the people of the sahel and the multifaceted causes, as opposed to the term drought that is understood in the popular imagination as a lack of rainfall. controversy over several incidents of food insecurity have led to long-running discussions about the appropriate scales and definitions of famine. for more information: paul howe and stephen devereux, “famine intensity and magnitude scales: a proposal for an instrumental definition of famine,” disasters 28, no. 4 (december 2004): 353–72. it should also be noted that the term ‘drought’ has a number of definitions, some of which have little to do with rainfall: donald a. wilhite and michael h. glantz, “understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions,” water international 10, no. 3 (january 1985): 111–20. 7 eric j. hobsbawm, the age of extremes: the short twentieth century, 1914-1991, repr (london: abacus, 2011). 8 daniel t. rodgers, age of fracture (cambridge, mass: belknap press of harvard university press, 2011). 9 locher, “neo-malthisian environmentalism, world fisheries crisis, and the global commons, 1950s-1970s”; jenny andersson, “the great future debate and the struggle for the world,” the american historical review 117, no. 5 (december 1, 2012): 1411–30. 10 andersson, “the great future debate,” 1413. 11 jon agar, “‘future forecast--changeable and probably getting worse’: the uk government’s early response to anthropogenic climate change,” twentieth century british history 26, no. 4 (december 1, 2015): 604-605. 12 rodgers, age of fracture, 11. 13 michael egan, ‘survival science: crisis disciplines and the shock of the environment in the 1970s1’, centaurus 59, no. 1–2 (2017): 26–39. and michael soule, ‘what is conservation biology?’, bioscience 35, no. 11 (1985): 727–34. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?fxvxbl https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?fxvxbl https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?fxvxbl https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?fxvxbl https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1tbplm https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1tbplm https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1tbplm https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1tbplm https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1tbplm https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1u3ggg https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1u3ggg https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1u3ggg https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1u3ggg https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?1u3ggg https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?kbf2av history of meteorology 11 (2022) 3 fig. 1. sahelian rainfall during the rainy season since 1900.14 the sahel famine of the early 1970s was one of the challenges that helped form crisis disciplines, especially in the area of climatology. as one of the first major crises in newly postcolonial africa, the famine brought widespread food insecurity and significant mortality for people and their animals. it appears that before mid-1973 the crisis was not strongly linked to long-term climatic changes within the public sphere. for example, a washington post article from january 1973 explicitly pointed out that “[w]eather experts at the us department of agriculture say that despite appearances there is no worldwide drought and that some areas in the southern hemisphere had heavy rains last year”.15 this sentiment was echoed by aid workers on the ground, who later claimed that they had been slow in responding to the crisis due to a prevailing belief that the drought was a “temporary climatic aberration” and that “each year would be the last”.16 in early reports, the crisis was mostly framed by aid responses, with little mention of climatological aspects. by mid-1973 however the crisis became linked with worldwide climatic shifts, an ever-evolving framing that continues to hold considerable sway. the discursive environment of the 1970s, with an academic trend towards futurism across a number of disciplines, meant that explanations such as climate attribution narratives thrived. these explanations drew on older colonial conceptualisations of the sahelian landscape and its peoples. however, while the representation of the sahel famine as caused by climatic changes has been influential since mid-1973, this narrative has long been challenged from a variety of disciplinary perspectives.17 many meteorologists have highlighted that data for the region is incomplete, and insufficient to make such confident causational assertions regarding the mechanisms behind the drought.18 today, it has been proposed that the decrease in rainfall was 14 todd mitchell, “sahel precipitation index (doi: 10.6069/h5mw2f2q),” dataset, the joint institute for the study of the atmosphere and ocean (jisao), february 2018, http://jisao.washington.edu/data/sahel/. 15 david b. ottaway, “drought threatens famine in wide areas of africa,” the washington post, january 20, 1973. 16 hal sheets and roger morris, “disaster in the desert,” issue: a journal of opinion 4, no. 1 (1974): 29. 17 these global scale climatic attribution theses were accompanied by discussion of localised climate-related mechanisms. mike hulme has shown how climatic perspectives of sahelian desiccation have taken a number of guises since the crisis, with localised feedback loops between increasing surface albedo and decreasing rainfall becoming an important contributor to climate-based narratives in the mid-1970s, as well as more global-scale arguments: mike hulme, “climatic perspectives on sahelian desiccation: 1973-1998,” global environmental change, 2001, 11. 18 david dalby and r. j. harrison church, eds., drought in africa: report of the 1973 symposium (symposium on drought in africa, london: university of london, school of oriental and african studies, centre for african studies, 1973), 14. the https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2w4aus https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2w4aus https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jnga7w https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jnga7w https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jnga7w https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?hxsujr https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?hxsujr https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?hxsujr https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yqhjhc https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yqhjhc https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yqhjhc https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yqhjhc https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jmmzwq https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jmmzwq https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jmmzwq https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jmmzwq history of meteorology 11 (2022) 4 caused by changes in ocean currents, but whether sahelian regions can be expected to receive increased rainfall in the future and whether the recent rainfall levels represent an underlying pattern remains a matter of contention.19 from the time of western colonial conquest in the late-nineteenth century, the sahel has been perceived as not just challenging but inherently problematic and dangerous due to its aridity.20 colonial conceptions of the sahel continue to inflect portrayals and perceptions of the region today, and were certainly visible in discussions of the famine in the 1970s. davis and burke identify the portrayal of the sahel as degraded and environmentally unnatural as a form of “environmental orientalism”, the projection of ideas of exoticism and insufficiency onto environments perceived as other by westerners.21 related to these ideas about the landscape were racialised and gendered assumptions about its people, encapsulated in the concept of environmental determinism.22 the colonial powers justified their intervention in the region through these ideas.23 these perceptions were reflected in early forms of climate science, which were concerned with the survival of europeans in hostile environmental conditions in the colonies.24 colonial conceptions saw climate as fixed or static, and climate was identified as a causal factor in the sahel’s perceived underdevelopment. decolonisation coincided with an increasing recognition that climate was not static at all, but instead was subject to natural variation and possible anthropogenic influences, resulting in a shift in how climatological thinking was applied to the sahel.25as the idea of climate as a fixed entity was replaced in the popular imaginary by the idea of climatic change, the sahel was again framed as particularly vulnerable, and narratives of environmental determinism were again invoked,26 even against opposition from scholars who strengthened the evidence for complex political, economic and social causes of the famine.27 the drought in africa symposium represents one of the earliest academic reactions to the sahel famine, and therefore is a useful example to illustrate the continuities of colonial thought as climate imaginaries transitioned from static to dynamic. western sahel was formally colonised by france after the berlin conference of 1884-1885, so there are substantial rainfall statistics for this region only since the beginning of the twentieth century (fig. 1). it should also be noted that the sahelian region sees significant variability in rainfall in different locations, so regional statistics obscure local experiences. 19 michela biasutti, “rainfall trends in the african sahel: characteristics, processes, and causes,” wires climate change 10, no. 4 (2019). 20 brittany meché, “bad things happen in the desert: mapping security regimes in the west african sahel and the ‘problem’ of arid spaces.” in a research agenda for military geographies, p.71. edward elgar publishing, 2019 71 21 davis, diana k., and edmund burke. environmental imaginaries of the middle east and north africa. athens, ohio, united states: ohio university press, 2011. 16 22 as david livingston notes, environmental determinism is commonly understood as the idea that “human activities are controlled by the environment”, and yet this definition is far too simple to contain the full scope of the way the idea has been constructed and utilised across many centuries. here it is important to note that in the sahel, the idea that the people were morally degraded as a result of living in the arid environment was widespread. david n livingstone, ‘environmental determinism’, in the sage handbook of geographical knowledge (sage publications, 2011), 368–80. 23 davis and burke, environmental imaginaries of the middle east and north africa, 15. 24 meché, “bad things happen in the desert: mapping security regimes in the west african sahel and the ‘problem’ of arid spaces.” 72 25 spencer r. weart, “rise of interdisciplinary research on climate.,” proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america 110 (2013): 3657–64. 26 a recent example: un security council, “un security council 8435th meeting (pm) sc/13637,” december 20, 2018. 27 see for example alexander de waal, famine crimes: politics and the disaster relief industry in africa (london: james currey, 1997), rolando v garcia, in nature pleads not guilty: the 1972 case history. 1st ed. oxford: pergamon press, 1981, glantz, michael h., ed. the politics of natural disaster: the case of the sahel drought. praeger special studies in international economics and development. new york: praeger, 1976. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?tmzmls https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?tmzmls https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?tmzmls https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?tmzmls https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?broken=yfluah https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?broken=yfluah https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?broken=yfluah https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?rpunas https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?rpunas https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?rpunas https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?rpunas https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?arlzgg history of meteorology 11 (2022) 5 drought in africa symposium when the unfolding crisis in the sahel hit the anglophone newspaper headlines in early 1973, it caught the attention of academics at london’s school of oriental and african studies (soas). at the time of the symposium in 1973 colonial-era beliefs and methodologies, including environmental determinism and inherent prejudice against the inhabitants of the areas studied, coexisted in tension with newer ideas.28 organised at only seven weeks’ notice, the drought in africa symposium of the 19th-20th of july 1973 brought together over 100 academics from a wide range of disciplines to discuss the crisis, stretching from physical science to law to anthropology to linguistics.29 the conference led to the publication and circulation of a summary report before the end of 1973. this initial report was then followed in 1977 by an expansion of the original, drought in africa 2.30 the symposium was convened by academics r. j. harrison church, a geographer from the london school of economics, and a young david dalby, a linguist, from soas. both the resulting 1973 report and the original conference papers demonstrate the competing disciplinary explanations and proposed resolutions to the crisis. on display at the symposium were a series of narratives that strongly reflect the colonial perception of the sahel, with colonialist environmental imaginaries in evidence alongside competing counter narratives. in the earlier work of convenor harrison church, he outlined a policy vision for west africa that strongly resonates with these colonialist narratives. his 1963 work environment and policies in west africa aligned significantly with the paper he submitted to the drought in africa symposium.31 while harrison church did not appear to have supported a climatic attribution thesis, he was aligned with those who viewed the sahelian environment as fundamentally degraded and insufficient. there were three key themes to harrison church’s earlier work that are relevant to understanding the perspectives presented at the 1973 symposium. firstly a belief in environmental determinism, as seen in harrison church’s 1963 assertion that “in all tropical lands, nature is more compelling and man usually less efficient in dealing with his environment than in temperate lands” implying that the environment in which people live determines their character, in this case their productivity.32 secondly, there are several mentions of “population pressure” as a cause of diminishing soil quality among other environmental issues, demonstrating the neo-malthusian attribution of crisis and conflict to expanding populations.33 finally, in his 1963 work harrison church discussed the impact of colonial policies on agriculture in the region, particularly plantation ownership by non-africans in french colonial regions, which was minimised in the drought 28 see page 19 of the dalby and harrison church, drought in africa conference report “it was suggested by one speaker that social anthropologists’ data on african societies should be treated with caution, since their discipline has a strong methodological bias towards finding self-contained systems, defining anything which does not fit as ‘intrusive’ 29 dalby and harrison church, drought in africa. 30 david dalby, r. j. harrison church, and fatima bezzaz, eds., drought in africa 2 =: sécheresse en afrique, rev. and expanded ed, african environment : special report 6 (london: international african institute in association with the environment training programme, 1977). 31 r. j. harrison church, environment and policies in west africa, 1st ed. (princeton, n.j: d. van nostrand company, inc., 1963), chap. 4. 32 ibid, 101. 33 ibid, 102 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yjcxct https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yjcxct https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yjcxct https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ln4cfq https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ln4cfq https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ln4cfq https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ln4cfq history of meteorology 11 (2022) 6 in africa report.34 however, he also asserted that “west african countries often fared better because of colonial connections” in comparison to other african countries.35 at the symposium, debates about environmental determinism, neo-malthusianism, and the impact of colonialism led to significant conflict. attendee john connell stated in the geography journal area that reports from organisations responding to the crisis led to “latent political differences becoming manifest and some discussion of neo-colonialism, dependence and over-dependence” during the symposium.36 it seems that at the centre of these debates was discussion on what level of intervention should have been provided to address the famine and to what extent factors such as climatic change, population increases, and degradation of the environment, including desertification, were responsible for the famine. for example, in coorganiser harrison church’s paper he claimed that in the sahel “ordinary subsistence will always be extremely hazardous” and thus he said the question must be asked whether “people should live in such areas with such terrible and inevitable risks?”37 and yet he was also critical of “fatalistic” reports that the sahara is advancing, and blamed man and livestock for the desertification of the region, which he believed could be undone should these pressures be relieved.38 harrison church thus holds two seemingly contradictory beliefs: that the sahel itself is inherently dangerous, and also that the people who live there are responsible for the environmental degradation he perceives to be threatening the environment. both of these beliefs, however, exhorted western intervention and minimised sahelian agency. in direct contrast, jeremy swift, a development economist, emphasised the diversity of both the sahel and its people, differentiating between different zones and the individual groups who live there. he discussed in detail numerous traditional responses to periods of drought and argued that the impact of colonialism had restrained the full range of options available to sahelian people in response to challenges from the environment.39 he also directly contradicted the assertions made by some of the climatologists present, discussing at length the variability of the climate in the region and directly stated “there are not enough [weather] stations to document the yearly variations from place to place”.40 here we can see some of the methods of development studies and postcolonial critique beginning to impact perceptions of the region and its people, foreshadowing much of the later work that sought to establish complex causality, and indigenous resilience in response to the famine.41 while at the symposium itself a wide variety of views were expressed, the report of the symposium prioritised those arguing for a more interventionist response to the crisis, including some calls for the evacuation of the 34 ibid, 104. 35 ibid, 111. 36 john connell, “drought in africa,” area 5, no. 4 (1973): 270–71. 37 dalby and harrison church, drought in africa, 62. 38 ibid, 63. 39 ibid, 76-77. this argument was expanded and strengthened rolando v garcia, in nature pleads not guilty: the 1972 case history. 1st ed. oxford: pergamon press, 1981. 40 dalby and harrison church, drought in africa, 71. 41 by limiting the specificity of regional experiences of the famine, the potential for a specificity of causal factors was also reduced, prioritising those explanations which were deemed to have the potential for universality population growth, climate, and environmental degradation. in devaluing indigenous expertise more complex and politicised explanations of the famine were decentred. very few papers sought to investigate local people’s perceptions and responses to drought, and those that did generally used only the medium of literary analysis rather than direct dialogue: h t norris, “sahel nomads’ attitudes to drought (i),” july 1973, soas. centre of african studies. conference files. box 2 soas/cas/1/5, soas library special collections. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?pvcjts https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?pvcjts https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?pvcjts https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?7o9g6e https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?7o9g6e https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?7o9g6e https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?7o9g6e https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?7o9g6e https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?krdgct https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?krdgct https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?krdgct history of meteorology 11 (2022) 7 sahelian region as exemplified by b. w. hodder of soas’s department of geography.42 this reinforced the narrative that the people of the sahel required ‘saving’ from the famine, and that western intervention of some kind was the only way to achieve this. this argument strongly echoes the justifications for intervention seen in the colonial era discussions of the sahel. what was missing, however, was acknowledgement of the colonial and postcolonial western interventions that played a role in creating the sahel famine, such as the promotion of cash crops that were vulnerable to fluctuations in international markets that hallmarked the 1970s.43 these interventionist arguments, partially relied on a pessimistic climatic prognosis for the region intervention clearly would not be necessary if the drought was a temporary aberration and the environment shortly to be replenished by the return of rains. at the conference, this pessimistic prognosis was most strongly promoted by hubert lamb. although at the symposium itself, the significance of the prognosis was questioned and its effect was lessened, the discursive environment of the early 1970s meant that subsequently, more significance was attached to the prognosis accentuating its impact. the construction of a climate prognosis hubert lamb served a 36-year long career in the uk meteorological office, until he left in 1971 due to methodological differences with the mainstream uk meteorological establishment. lamb’s ways of knowing no longer fit with his institution. he held a prevailing belief that examining the historic climatological record was essential for understanding future climatic developments. in contrast, the met office was increasingly moving towards computational modelling for researching the climate.44 throughout the 1960s, lamb had spent considerable effort reconstructing past climate records, using diverse sources like monastic chronicles, ship’s logs, and seasonal accounts from english vineyards. both in 1967 and 1972, lamb tentatively indicated that he could detect patterns in the data, claiming to see repeating oscillations in temperature and other variables at intervals of just under 200-years, with peaks in the mid-1300s, and early 1500s, 1700s, and 1900s (fig. 2).45 in 1972, lamb founded the university of east anglia’s climatic research unit but struggled to gain funding, as seen in a begging letter in the journal nature in early 1974 and the unsuccessful lobbying of the uk government for funds.46 42 dalby and harrison church, drought in africa, 21. 43 michael f. lofchie, “political and economic origins of african hunger,” the journal of modern african studies 13, no. 4 (1975): 551–67; fao, “tsfa 1971,” 109. 44 janet martin‐nielsen, “ways of knowing climate: hubert h. lamb and climate research in the uk,” wires climate change 6, no. 5 (2015): 465–77. 45 h. h. lamb, “britain’s changing climate,” the geographical journal 133, no. 4 (1967): 457; h. h. lamb, climate: present, past and future (london: methuen, 1972), 236. 46 allan piper, “lamb’s unit to the slaughter?,” nature 248, no. 5448 (april 1, 1974): 466–67; climatic research unit, vol. 868, hc deb (hansard, 1974). https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?te6dbg https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?te6dbg https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?te6dbg https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?wpacw6 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?wpacw6 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?wpacw6 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?wpacw6 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?j93ran https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?j93ran https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?j93ran https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?j93ran https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ve4jys https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ve4jys https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ve4jys https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ve4jys https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ve4jys https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ve4jys https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?pu15gi https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?pu15gi https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?pu15gi https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?pu15gi https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?pu15gi https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?pu15gi history of meteorology 11 (2022) 8 fig. 2. graphs of reconstructed historical temperature in the uk repeatedly used by lamb to tentatively indicate 200-year cycles. (a) shows yearly averages, (b) summer averages, and (c) winter averages.47 lamb’s paper on atmospheric pressure variation was given high priority in the symposium report, being the first paper reproduced, and its significance was reinforced by a supplementary note from one of lamb’s colleagues at the climatic research unit emphasising the global implications of climatic change. this was despite the fact the paper was barely more than one page long and contained no formal references. lamb ascribed the drought to belts of higher 47 lamb, “britain’s changing climate,” 457; lamb, climate, 236. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ukymua https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ukymua https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ukymua history of meteorology 11 (2022) 9 pressure near the polar regions displacing climatic zones closer to the equator, and tentatively linked the sahel disaster with the 200-year climatic cycle that he had detected in his uk data: from this analysis it appears that the phenomenon which is giving rise to the droughts has already a long history, of over 20 years of continuous development, and that it is not likely to disappear in the near future as part of any cyclic phenomenon. the well known cycles of 2 years, 5.5 years, 9.5 years, 11 years and 20-22 years duration evidently have nothing to do with it. there are no other such prominent cycles in meteorological phenomena shorter than 80-90 years, and the association of this phenomenon with changes in the frequencies of different wind directions over the british isles (where we have a long history of the winds) suggests that it is more likely associated with a 200-year process.48 whether it was his intention or not, the final sentence of lamb’s paper would come to be interpreted as a climate prediction. lamb’s perceived pattern to the climatic data was reinforced by the work of derek winstanley, who reported from eight weather stations on the northern fringe of the monsoon area, including six in the sahel. however, this narrative did not resonate well with the other meteorologists in the room, such as those associated with the met office, who claimed that lamb was oversimplifying a highly complex and heterogeneous atmospheric system.49 the idea of a 200-year cycle was also complicated by the papers of d. j. schove, who emphasised 30-year oscillations in climate, and a. t. grove, who outlined a prior drought that had culminated in 1913 (fig. 1).50 indeed, it seems that at the symposium itself these disagreements blunted the power of lamb’s hypothesis, with one observer saying “the symposium was left to consider the idea that meteorologists could not yet predict long-term changes.”51 this was in contrast to the published report, where the “climate and water resources” panel chairman’s summary gave space and prominence to lamb’s ideas.52 clearly, dalby and harrison church saw the prognosis as a significant takeaway of the conference. lamb’s thesis had an immediate impact amongst organisations responding to the famine. the voluntary committee on overseas aid and development was an umbrella organisation that connected the ministry of overseas development with ngos in the uk. in a copy of the symposium report held in the voluntary committee’s library, the 200-years figure was underlined when it was first mentioned in the chairman’s summary. an organisational document created to summarise the symposium also gave rhetorical emphasis to the 200-year figure (see appendix). it is clear that any ngo employee consulting the report in the voluntary committee's library would have been presented with the opinion that the disaster was part of a long-term climatic change, and that the voluntary committee believed that the 200-year figure was worth emphasising. in addition, we see lamb’s one-page paper cited at meetings 48 dalby and harrison church, drought in africa, 27–28. 49 dalby and harrison church, drought in africa, 14. 50 ibid, 29-30, 33-45. 51 connell, “drought in africa.” 52 dalby and harrison church, drought in africa, 13–14. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?bhrcmc https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?bhrcmc https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?bhrcmc https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?rzbzfu https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?rzbzfu https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?rzbzfu https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?16euvu https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?kbwohl https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?kbwohl https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?kbwohl history of meteorology 11 (2022) 10 orchestrated by the rockefeller foundation53 regarding the crisis,54 as well as by social scientists trying to criticise and complicate the climatic attribution thesis for the famine.55 lamb’s paper, one page and devoid of references, had a larger impact than its format would suggest, with its influence resulting mainly from resonant discourses that lamb had (most likely inadvertently) tapped into. at the symposium meeting, as previously mentioned, lamb’s prognosis found support in the form of independent scholar derek winstanley who had completed his dphil in climatology four years before. papers were distributed one week before the meeting, and winstanley’s symposium paper at the time of submission did not include any explicit mention of the 200-year figure.56 however, the day before the conference began a version of winstanley’s symposium paper was received by the journal nature and was published in september, now including the 200-year figure prominently.57 according to winstanley, the climate paper was fast tracked by nature staff writer john gribbin, who later released his own series of popular books on climate catastrophe.58 in the article, winstanley intervened in the debates discussed at the symposium about the habitability of the sahel, explicitly saying “massive international aid could be injected into sahel states but this would destroy the nomadic way of life […] the natural solution would be for nomads to shift southwards with the rains but this would raise serious political problems”.59 winstanley here made an implied prognosis about future rainfall in the region based on historical data. by engaging in policy debates, he made a deterministic, pessimistic, and neo-malthusian analysis of the capacity of the sahel to support its population. here the societal implications of the 200-year hypothesis were made explicit by a climatologist, implications that the wider media would then pick up on. winstanley’s nature paper was widely reported upon in the popular press. gribbin himself referenced the article extensively in a wide-ranging piece for new scientist that examined the effects of planetary tides on solar output as a possible driving force behind the climatic changes.60 the popular environmentalist journal the ecologist emphasised winstanley’s pessimistic political interventions regarding the prospects for the sahel (fig. 3): “at the recent symposium on drought in africa [...], dr. d. winstanley pointed out that the desert climate will probably continue to shift southwards for a century or more—a devastating conclusion.” the editor also drew parallels between winstanley’s ideas and viewpoints being 53 the family-run rockefeller foundation, along with other organisations such as the ford foundation, have been instrumental in pushing major development policies in the twentieth century such as the green revolution and population control programmes, often as a proxy for the us government, in order to reinforce ‘world order’ based on globalised markets and the free-flow of capital. the rockefeller foundation had been engaged in the sahelian region since at least independence and had a clear interest in the sahel crisis, shown in several meetings it helped organise regarding the famine, often in conjunction with us government agencies, see: national academy of sciences, “international development strategies for the sahel: conference held at the bellagio study and conference center, italy october 1974,” may 1975; rockefeller foundation, “the president’s review and annual report” (rockefeller foundation, 1974); rockefeller foundation, “annual report” (rockefeller foundation, 1960). 54 national academy of sciences, “international development strategies for the sahel.” 55 jeremy swift, “sahelian pastoralists: underdevelopment, desertification, and famine,” annual review of anthropology 6, no. 1 (1977): 457–78. 56 winstanley, “drought in sahel zones: severity, causes and prospects.” 57 derek winstanley, “rainfall patterns and general atmospheric circulation,” nature 245, no. 5422 (september 1973): 190–94. 58 derek winstanley, interview with derek winstanley, interview by robert l naylor, zoom, april 28, 2021. 59 winstanley, “rainfall patterns and general atmospheric circulation,” 194. 60 john gribbin, “our weather: a link with the planets?,” new scientist, december 27, 1973. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?drxohy https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?drxohy https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?drxohy https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?drxohy https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?qlc8yz https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2ujijo https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2ujijo https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2ujijo https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2ujijo https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?u9n81o https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?wv1dou https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?wv1dou https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?wv1dou https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?wv1dou https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?cfxwzv https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2r60wg https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?96jtvf https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?96jtvf https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?96jtvf history of meteorology 11 (2022) 11 put forth by other climatological doomsayers such as reid bryson in the us.61 the language was highly pessimistic, even apocalyptic. in the general newspapers, an editorial in the times described winstanley’s paper as “disturbing”: a scientific theory must be tested before it can form the basis of political action. but in this case the theory has direct relevance to the lives and deaths of millions of human beings, and every effort must be made to speed up the process of scientific enquiry so that governments and relief organisations can decide what form of action is most appropriate. more effort ought to be devoted to climate research both in britain and elsewhere.62 the editorial in the times exhorted the scientific community to “speed up” its procedures due to the magnitude of the crisis and the need for intervention, demonstrating the conceptual space into which crisis disciplines were able to expand. this times editorial elicited responses from readers, some of whom had direct experience of the crisis. teresa scott, who had recently returned from mali, saw the 200-year figure as significant: “[i]f these droughts are not occasional, but the result of a cyclic variation of climate extending over a period of 200 years, then the situation is indeed serious”.63 as we can see, the 200-year figure found resonance amongst a wide range of audiences, tapping in as it did to concerns and ideas already circulating in this era. fig. 3. front cover of the ecologist from october 1973.64 61 reid a. bryson, “drought in sahelia: who or what is to blame,” ecologist, october 1973. 62 “nomads with nowhere to go?,” the times, september 28, 1973, the times digital archive. 63 teresa scott, “drought in africa,” the times, october 8, 1973, the times digital archive. 64 resurgence & ecologist, “ecologist magazine archive 1970-1979,” 2021, https://www.resurgence.org/magazine/ecologist/issues1970-1979.html. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2f4njl https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2f4njl https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?2f4njl https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?vozocx https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?vozocx https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?vozocx https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?swzemt https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?swzemt https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?swzemt https://www.resurgence.org/magazine/ecologist/issues1970-1979.html history of meteorology 11 (2022) 12 crisis disciplines in the 1970s produced a wide range of “missions” in response to the concerns of the period about environmental degradation, increasing population, and inadequate food supply. the response to the sahel famine, with its emphasis on western intervention to save the sahelian people, was one such mission. the 200-year figure was utilised to justify and support this endeavour, irrespective of the intentions of winstanley and lamb. we can see how publications extracted the 200-year figure as the essence of winstanley’s article a numerical estimate that was simple to understand for non-specialists and carried significant implications. the times, the ecologist and the 1977 drought in africa 2 report demonstrate the appeal of this easily-grasped narrative, with the latter claiming that “[t]here are few today who would deny that behind the apparently random course of events can be perceived the thread of an underlying logic”.65 of the candidates, climatic change, along with population explosions and environmental degradation by locals, represented the simplest and most attractive underlying logics for a complex crisis. in spite of its appeal in popular narratives, the 200-year figure, which was now associated with winstanley, apparently did not resonate as effectively within more conservative mainstream meteorological circles. this can be seen from a citation within a paper presented to the rockefeller foundation in october 1974, which consisted of a personal communication where winstanley felt he had to make clear that he had been “quoted out of context” by the press.66 indeed, there were multiple levels of confusion, with some observers inferring that the drought would last for a century or more, which was not the same as a 200year climate cycle that would include both the good times and the bad. winstanley, who was in his 20s, struggled to cope with the sudden attention and the associated requests to be interviewed for tv.67 however, he would later go on to have a successful career in science administration in the us, co-authoring a paper in the 80s that would somewhat reverse his position on climatic causation of worldwide societal events.68 beyond the 200-year cycle fascinating though the story of this 200-year figure is, it was not in itself decisive. rather, it formed part of a larger movement in the 1970s towards what naylor has referred to as “crisis climatology”, one of egan and soulé’s crisis disciplines.69 crisis climatology was wide-ranging in its theories and methodologies, and was plastic in response to various interlinked crises of the 1970s and the resultant injections of funds. the world food crisis, where global food prices (and the prices of several other commodities) skyrocketed in 1973 due to shifts in the worldwide economic system, represents one such an event.70 this process can be seen most strikingly in a testimony given by reid bryson to a us senate committee in october 1973, where bryson was able to gain the confidence of former us vice president hubert humphrey, synthesising politically salient events such as sahelian famine into his 65 dalby, church, and bezzaz, drought in africa 2, 17. 66 national academy of sciences, “international development strategies for the sahel,” 35. 67 most likely for: “the weather machine,” the radio times, november 14, 1974. 68 donald m. borock and derek winstanley, “environmental variables in us foreign policy making: the world food conference as a policy opportunity” (meeting of the western political science association and the international studies association, denver, colorado, 1981); winstanley, interview with derek winstanley. 69 naylor, “reid bryson: the crisis climatologist,”. 70 christian gerlach, “famine responses in the world food crisis 1972–5 and the world food conference of 1974.” european review of history: revue européenne d’histoire 22, no. 6 (november 2, 2015): 929–39; garcia, nature pleads not guilty: the 1972 case history. 1981. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?o5j44r https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?o5j44r https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?o5j44r https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?bs5qs5 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ksve92 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ksve92 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?ksve92 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?lmgpwy https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?lmgpwy https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?lmgpwy https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?aicge9 history of meteorology 11 (2022) 13 narrative in the process.71 bryson was not the only 1970s climatologist to enter the publicpolitical sphere, with walter orr roberts, stephen schneider, herman flohn, hubert lamb, and many others contributing to crisis climatology discourse, along with a host of journalists.72 lamb and bryson collaborated on producing work that gave climate-based explanations for world events, such as the fall of the bronze age mycenae civilisation, and lamb contributed to meetings that released highly inflammatory, even apocalyptic, statements about the impact of climate on the world food situation.73 in addition, lamb highlighted the magnitude of the sahel famine in climatic research unit reports, and undertook a highly interdisciplinary mode of research that hallmarked crisis disciplines.74 crisis climatology’s bold, untested ideas were highly controversial within mainstream meteorology, and the national center for atmospheric research entered the media sphere to dispute statements made by crisis climatologists.75 however, some of the practitioners, through their audacious claims, were able to attract attention and funding to their institutions. bryson himself was richly rewarded by his newfound influence, with the research budget of his institute rising to $3m in 1974.76 in 1974, lamb’s struggle to find funding for his new institution would bear fruit in the form of a $120,000 grant from the rockefeller foundation, equivalent to around three quarters of a million in 2021.77 according to his autobiography, this had directly resulted from the begging letter placed in the journal nature in 1974. this may well have been lamb’s view, as his autobiography outlines a meeting with rockefeller representatives that could only be described as convivial.78 it is notable, however, that, according to their annual report, the rockefeller foundation only substantially funded climatologists in 1974 who had made bold prognoses regarding sahelian famine such as lamb and bryson. soon after receiving this funding, lamb largely abandoned the 200-year figure. this can most clearly be seen by the revised version of his symposium paper in the second 1977 report, which in contrast to his 1973 paper, ends on a cautious note: “...the records used were not long enough to substantiate this cycle with confidence.”79 the emergence of the crisis climatology movement saw several international figures put forward much more decisive prognoses regarding climate and its impacts, including with regards to the sahel famine. practitioners, including lamb and bryson, were able to utilise the 71 robert l naylor, “the bryson synthesis: the forging of climatic change as a political tool during the world food crisis (in print),” science in context, 2021. 72 walter orr roberts and henry lansford, the climate mandate, 1st ed. (san franciso, cal: w. h. freeman, 1979; walter orr roberts, “climate change and its effect on world food,” science and public policy 2, no. 6 (june 1975): 264–66; stephen schneider and lynne e. mesirow, the genesis strategy: climate and global survival (springer us, 1976): 106107; h. h. lamb, “is the earth’s climate changing,” ecologist 4, no. 1 (1974): 10–15. 73 r. a. bryson, h. h. lamb, and david l. donley, “drought and the decline of mycenae,” antiquity 48, no. 189 (march 1974): 46–50; roberts, “climate change and its effect on world food.” 74 h. h. lamb, “the current trend of world climate: a report on the early 1970’s and a perspective,” cru rp (norwich: climatic research unit, school of environmental sciences, university of east anglia, 1974). 75 henry lansford, “international federation of institutes for advanced study,” press invitation, september 30, 1974, ncar archives; roberts and lansford, climate mandate,106–7; alan anderson, “forecast for forecasting: cloudy,” new york times, december 29, 1974, sec. sm. 76 reid a. bryson, “seven years in retrospect: the institute for environmental studies, university of wisconsin, madison,” in environmental education in action ii: case studies of environmental studies programs in colleges and universities today (ohio: educational resources information center, 1978), 90. 77 rockefeller foundation, “the president’s review and annual report,” 64. 78 h. h. lamb, through all the changing scenes of life: a meteorologist’s tale (norfolk: taverner publications, 1997), 203–4. 79 dalby, church, and bezzaz, drought in africa 2, 36. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?arxaok https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?arxaok https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?arxaok https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?arxaok https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?cg3nhw https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?cg3nhw https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?cg3nhw https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?cg3nhw https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?cg3nhw https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?cg3nhw https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?cg3nhw https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?cg3nhw https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?copsjv https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?copsjv https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?copsjv https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?copsjv https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?rujstx https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?rujstx https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?e9peq1 https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jyi5wd https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jyi5wd https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?jyi5wd history of meteorology 11 (2022) 14 prominence of the sahel disaster in order to promote their ideas and gain institutional recognition and funding. it is also clear that climate prognoses in and of themselves were powerful narratives that resonated with wider society in the period. another example of the power of these climate narratives, can be seen in the establishment of an environmental review unit at soas as a direct result of the symposium. headed by co-organiser david dalby, the unit aimed to incorporate a physical sciences perspective into the school’s repertoire for the first time.80 the environment review unit was mission oriented and intended to encourage interdisciplinary cooperation to address crises such as the sahel famine. while the drought in africa 2 1977 expanded report does include social science papers, the introduction refers heavily to “empirical” analysis and data, and “scientific” methods as the necessary tools of scholars of the crisis.81 by 1975 social scientists were publicly complaining that their subject had been relegated to exploring the impact of the crisis, not the causes.82 ngos in the region, such as rockefeller and those under the voluntary committee on overseas aid & development umbrella, seem to have resonated with explanations like population explosion, environmental degradation by locals, and lack of rainfall as the primary causes of the crisis. as outlined earlier, the 1970s was a time where the perception of widespread crisis meant that versatile sets of ideas such as lamb’s, while not accepted in his home discipline of meteorology, were taken on in different arenas, such as aid and development. here the politically engaged discipline of crisis climatology contributed to the depoliticization of events such as the sahel famine. this depoliticization of the causes of humanitarian crises came under significant criticism in the years following the famine. the humanitarianism unbound paper by african rights, released in 1994, is a now well-known critique of the expansion of humanitarian action after the cold war, stating “relief aid delivered by international agencies has become integrated into processes of violence and oppression”.83 david keen’s 1994 work on famine in sudan in 1983-89 made a more specific and detailed case that aid agencies’ failure to engage with the political dimension of famine resulted in donors actively allowing the government’s intentional promotion of famine to continue unabated.84 in the sahel, and africa as a whole, climatic change remains a tool of depoliticization by international agencies, demonstrated by the controversial attribution of the darfur conflict to climatic change by the un secretary general ban ki-moon in 2007.85 while a static climate was viewed as an environmentally determinant indicator of degradation and insufficiency to justify intervention and control during colonial periods, now climatic change is used for the same purpose to justify the establishment and consolidation of aid and development in the region. as ‘static’ climatic determinism exemplified by harrison church in 1963 transitioned into the ‘dynamic’ climatic determinism promoted by the likes of 80 david dalby, “the future role of the international african institute,” africa: journal of the international african institute 44, no. 4 (1974): 325–26. this unit appears to have faced significant challenges in crossing disciplinary boundaries: paul richards, “what environmental crisis means in africa,” nature 259, no. 5541 (january 1, 1976): 258–59. 81 dalby, church, and bezzaz, drought in africa 2, 17. 82 lofchie, “african hunger”; swift, “sahelian pastoralists.” 83 african rights (organization), humanitarianism unbound?: current dilemmas facing multi-mandate relief operations in political emergencies (african rights, 1994), 3. 84 david keen. the benefits of famine: a political economy of famine and relief in southwestern sudan, 1983-1989. james currey publishers, 2008. 85 mark maslin, “climate change is not a key cause of conflict, finds new study,” the conversation, april 24, 2018. https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yfzxta https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yfzxta https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yfzxta https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?yfzxta https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?fxa1fh https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?fxa1fh https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?fxa1fh https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?8vptnz https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?8vptnz https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?8vptnz https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?tgyg1b https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?kluz8y https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?kluz8y https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?kluz8y https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?kluz8y https://www.zotero.org/google-docs/?egg6g6 history of meteorology 11 (2022) 15 winstanley in 1973, the future of the sahel as a habitable, productive region was kept out of the hands of sahelians and handed to technocratic elites.86 conclusion the 200-year figure represents an intersection of diverse resonances and interests, allowing it to propagate irrespective of its causal mechanisms, scientific veracity, or acceptance by the meteorological community. the sahel crisis was a complex and contested event about which there was insufficient data to evidence any kind of consensus view either within academic or public circles. in this situation of little concrete information, a numerical estimate for how long the drought may last, no matter how tentatively stated, propagated in the discursive landscape of the time. for lamb, whether he was conscious of it or not, the tentative climate prognosis represented a tightrope walk towards greater financial security. it was provocative enough to gain attention from important funders, but was also expressed with plausible deniability, allowing him to step away from the prognosis if needed, as indeed he later did. for winstanley, the 200-year figure was a hotshot ticket to the moon and back. it gave him exposure in the national media, but this was somewhat of a poisoned chalice, with winstanley feeling that his work had been quoted out of context and was to an extent out of his control. partly as a result of early climatic prognoses such as these and partly due to the resonant discourse and interests of the period, the sahel crisis of the early 1970s became associated with physical causes and wider climatic change, limiting discussions of the sociopolitical causes of the famine right up to the present day. acknowledgements the authors would like to thank derek winstanley, mickey glantz, vanessa bell, simone schleper and jemma houghton for their help in preparing this manuscript. the interpretation, as well as any errors, remain the authors’. robert’s phd is funded by an economic and social research council case fellowship partnered with the royal meteorological society. nwssdtp grant number es/p000665/1. eleanor’s phd is funded by the national institute for academic anaesthesia. appendix: in a nutshell the problems of drought in the sahel this two-page summary document was found within the pages of a copy of the ‘drought in africa’ symposium report that was formerly owned by the voluntary committee on overseas aid & development, an umbrella organisation which connected the ministry of overseas development in the uk with ngos, including oxfam, christian aid, and the overseas development institute. written in early 1974, it was most likely intended to assist committee members as they consulted the report in the committee’s library at parnell house. the charities that were instrumental in organising aid for the sahel were members of this voluntary committee, and all attended this symposium, so this document demonstrates a 86 this trend of prioritising external knowledge of the sahel reflects that of the wider trend towards the creation of the ‘development expert’ in aid and development circles, which uma kothari argues supported the introduction of a neo-liberal development agenda, see uma kothari “authority and expertise: the professionalisation of international development and the ordering of dissent.” antipode 37, no. 3 (2005): 425–46. history of meteorology 11 (2022) 16 collective awareness of the 200-year figure, as well as an acknowledgement of its perceived importance. as this document is not publicly available, we have decided to reproduce the text here: in a nutshell the problems of drought in the sahel the situation. there is a catastrophic drought in africa, south of the sahara. some hundreds of thousands of cattle and tens of thousands of people have died no one knows how many, because no one has ever counted either the human or the animal population in this very remote and inhospitable part of the world. the remaining people and their livestock have been moving southwards, seeking pastures and new farmlands, pressing on a hostile rural population and surrounding towns with the low tented encampments of the destitute which sometimes contain as many as ten thousand refugees. people in these camps have lost everything they possess. they have left their cattle and sometimes even their babies. this situation is six or seven years old now, but drought is a slowly accumulating condition and this year, 1974, promises to be still more fearful than former years. the reason for all this. the rains in the sahel (which is that broad strip right across africa south of the sahara and north of the savannah belt) have been sparse for the last six years and in some places have failed entirely. they have been too little, too early, too erratic. the causes for this are not known but it is thought that pressure at the poles is changing and that this is ‘pushing’ the earth's pressure belts southwards a few degrees, and moving drier conditions further southwards towards the west african coast, the chances are that the present dry cycle may last for thirty or some say two hundred years. the rains have failed before many times (there was a severe drought from 1913 21 for example) but what makes the present drought so calamitous is that man has greatly aggravated the situation. well-meaning governments and aid bodies have provided wells and health measures for humane and livestock, this has produced an ‘animal explosion'. the nomads have been able to increase their herds far beyond the capacity of the pasture to support them, and the farmers have extended their cultivation too far. this has led to a savage destruction of pasture, soil erosion and ‘desertification’ of the land. the water table has been lowered, some fear irreparably. the pastoral nomads are the people most affected by this and probably the tuareg most of all. it seems likely that this may be the end of the life of almost all of the nomads. they have slaughtered or sold their animals and the farmers have eaten their seed corn. aid and possibly long-term strategies. the sahelian zone includes six of the poorest countries in the world. for years no one seemed to realise how serious the situation was growing. since last year, however, the international bodies have been pouring in vast quantities of aid most of it in the form of emergency feeding and medical supplies: very little of it in the form of viable long-term projects. the reason for this is that very little is known about how to rehabilitate such vast arid areas anyway it is astronomically expensive. certainly no government understands the people, particularly the nomads, in these areas. the debate on long-term strategies, usually favours settlement or the restoration of pastoral nomadism, with the development of local industries and oil where possible. settlement, of course, is a practice that the townsman understands while on the other side the restoration of nomadism is naturally criticised because this may merely lead to the building up once more of herds that are too large for the pasture. history of meteorology 11 (2022) 17 the important symposium on drought held last summer at the school of oriental and african studies held the view that policies for development in the sahel were doomed to failure unless they bore in mind the attitudes and practices of those who live in their area, and their relationship to their sahelian environment. "as long as they are thought of as backward peoples to be assimilated as fast as possible to models of development currently in vogue elsewhere, then no real progress can be made. here is a large body of peoples with many of the skills and aptitudes needed to exploit huge areas of western africa, an environment so harsh that it is difficult to imagine anyone else wanting, let alone being able to use it. this land is essential to the development of west africa." and yet, in fact, it seems that no administrator has ever consulted the people who live there over their own problems in the drought. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 49 whither climatology? brückner’s climate oscillations, data debates, and dynamic climatology philipp n. lehmann plehmann@mpiwg-berlin.mpg.de max planck institute for the history of science, berlin in 1890 eduard brückner published his major climatological work with the wordy title climate oscillations since 1700, with remarks about climate oscillations since the diluvial epoch. 1 the book brought a new impetus to the ongoing debate about climatic changes and variability, which had been a major point of contention in the climatological community throughout the second half of the nineteenth century. brückner’s postulation of periodic and global 35-year climatic cycles made a large and lasting impact. among many others, svante arrhenius discussed the findings; and more than half a century later, emmanuel le roy ladurie used brückner’s data collection as important material for his own work in climate history. 2 the research and writing of the book, however, had not been an easy task for brückner. in the foreword, he professed that the completion of the work “had been forced to be delayed again and again.” 3 even a cursory reading of climate oscillations suffices to reveal the likely cause for the difficulties: in order to bolster his claims of persistent universal climatic cycles, brückner had to cover large evidentiary ground. on the basis of information on glacial 1 eduard brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, nebst bemerkungen über die klimaschwankungen der diluvialzeit, geographische abhandlungen 4 (vienna: ed. hölzel, 1890); unless otherwise indicated, all translations into english are my own. 2 see: nico stehr and hans von storch, “der klimaforscher eduard brückner,” in eduard brückner die geschichte unseres klimas: klimaschwankungen und klimafolgen, ed. by nico stehr and hans von storch (vienna: zentralanstalt für meteorologie und geodynamik, 2008), 7; arrhenius directly referred to brückner’s work in his 1903 textbook on “cosmic physics”: svante arrhenius, lehrbuch der kosmischen physik (leipzig: s. hirzel, 1903), 570–571; for ladurie’s early and groundbreaking work on climate history, see: emmanuel le roy ladurie, histoire du climat depuis l’an mil (paris: flammarion, 1967); the english version was published as: emmanuel le roy ladurie, times of feast, times of famine: a history of climate since the year 1000 (garden city, ny: doubleday, 1971). 3 brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, iii; english versions of some of brückner’s writings on climate change and climate variability can be found in: hans von storch and nico stehr, eds., eduard brückner: the sources and consequences of climate change and climate variability in historical times (dordrecht: kluwer academic publishers, 2000). mailto:plehmann@mpiwg-berlin.mpg.de history of meteorology 7 (2015) 50 oscillations and the historical fluctuations of water levels in bodies of water, he had first presented a general outline of his ideas in 1887. 4 two years later, brückner had already added not only quantitative temperature and precipitation data from scottish arbroath to australian sydney, but also historical records of european vintage dates. 5 in his 1890 book, he then brought the full collection of his evidence to bear: he discussed reports and theories of climatic changes around the world, appended historical information on the frequency of cold winters and ice conditions on bodies of water, and correlated meteorological information with changes in agricultural production and the incidence of typhus. what interests me in this paper is not a detailed analysis of brückner’s ambitious, if ultimately flawed, theory of climate cycles, but the fact that his book represented an exemplary embodiment of a particular approach in the then still young and inchoate field of climatology. the nineteenth-century version of the study of climates was not – or at least not only – the often-satirized prime example of narrow-minded, statistical drudgery, but a more complex and heterogeneous “science of the archive,” marked by the use of diverse sources of quantitative and qualitative evidence to form a holistic representation of climatic conditions throughout history. 6 with this approach, climatological work revealed its close connections – both programmatic and institutional – to the “telluric,” or earth-bound, sciences of geography and geology, which had similarly long historical dimensions, combined approaches from diverse fields, and shared a common interest in the phenomena of glaciations and their aftermaths. the inductive, historical, and archive-based method of studying patterns in the climate confronted practitioners with problems arising from the heterogeneous and increasingly capacious data sets. meteorological networks were expanding around the globe, supplying more and more numerical data on rainfall, temperature, and winds. at the same time climatologists – a designation i use as an umbrella term for scientists of all stripes working on climatic phenomena – also continued to uncover historical sources offering evidence of past climatic conditions. faced with this wealth of diverse data, some practitioners in the meteorological and climatological communities started to both criticize the lack of common standards in data selection and evaluation and bemoan the dearth of convincing explanatory models for climatic phenomena. as i will show in this paper, the internal criticism led some practitioners to call for new deductive approaches and more narrowly defined data sets, increasingly drawn not from around, but from above, the earth and focusing on atmospheric dynamics rather than historical and geographic information. as deborah coen has described in her work, moves towards physical-dynamic approaches to the study of climates were already apparent before the first world war. 7 by the 1920s, some of the appeals for a reevaluation of the discipline 4 eduard brückner, “die schwankungen des wasserstandes im kaspischen meer, dem schwarzen meer und der ostsee in ihrer beziehung zur witterung,” annalen der hydrographie und maritimen meteorologie 16, no. 2 (1888): 55–67. 5 eduard brückner, in wie weit ist das heutige klima konstant? vortrag gehalten auf dem 8. deutschen geographentage zu berlin (berlin: w. pormetter, 1889). 6 the term “science of the archive” is borrowed from: lorraine daston, “the sciences of the archive,” osiris 27, no. 1 (january 1, 2012): 156–187. 7 see, in particular, the case studies of heinrich von ficker and aleksandr ivanovitch voeikov in: deborah r. coen, “imperial climatographies from tyrol to turkestan,” osiris 26 (2011): 45–65. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 51 cited new developments in dynamic meteorology, and particularly vilhelm bjerknes’ approaches to weather prediction, as a model for a future “dynamic climatology.” while climatology continued to be a field of many diverse approaches and methods and remained a long way from becoming the atmospheric and physical science it is today, it had entered a period of reevaluation and uncertainty with regard to the future trajectory of the discipline. critiques of data practices and calls for a general reenvisioning of the content and methods of climatological research challenged the powerful historico-geographical tradition of the field. the ensuing debate formed one particular aspect of the complex dynamics of disciplinary specialization and of larger epistemological debates about the definition of the human versus the natural sciences at the turn of the twentieth century. 8 as “natural historians,” climatologists were caught in between the two sides, having to negotiate the deepening distinctions that academics and their institutions began to draw between inductive and deductive, and idiographic and nomothetic, approaches. 9 climatology, straddling the fields of meteorology, physics, geology, geography, and history, incorporated many different methods and data sets, which led not only to a rich inter-disciplinary dimension of the work, but also to difficulties with data heterogeneity and data overload and, ultimately, to arguments about the future trajectory of the field. 10 in this paper, i will first discuss eduard brückner’s use of evidence in his climate oscillations before examining the larger discussions in the field over what kind of data and what kind of disciplinary approaches would be considered feasible and valid in climatological work. finally, i will briefly outline the early influence of dynamic meteorology on some of the attempts to imagine a new kind of physical and dynamic climate science. through this history of data debates and methodological critique, i will draw out some of the origins and implications of the period of disciplinary reevaluation up to 1930. eduard brückner’s climate oscillations eduard brückner was born in jena in 1863 to the german-russian historian alexander and his wife. he spent most of his childhood and early teenage years in russia, before his parents sent him to karlsruhe to finish his secondary school education. after receiving his diploma, brückner went on to study geology, geography, paleontology, physics, and history at the universities of dorpat (tartu in modern-day estonia), dresden, and munich. as a doctorate student in munich, he became one of the first advisees of the young 8 for a discussion of the connected histories and the historiographical separation of the humanities and the sciences, see the articles in the recent isis focus section organized and introduced by rens bod and julia kursell: rens bod and julia kursell, “introduction: the humanities and the sciences,” isis 106, no. 2 (june 1, 2015): 337–340; for a case study of the differences between historical and atmospheric approaches in late nineteenth-century norway, see gunnar ellingsen’s contribution in this volume. 9 cf.: lynn k. nyhart, “wissenschaft and kunde: the general and the special in modern science,” osiris 27, no. 1 (january 1, 2012): 253; for the locus classicus of the distinction between nomothetic and idiographic approaches, see: wilhelm windelband, geschichte und naturwissenschaft (strassburg: heitz, 1894). 10 on the long history of information and data overload, see: brian w. ogilvie, “the many books of nature: renaissance naturalists and information overload,” journal of the history of ideas 64, no. 1 (2003): 29–40; daniel rosenberg, “early modern information overload,” journal of the history of ideas 64, no. 1 (2003): 1–9. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 52 albrecht penck (1858-1945), who in his mid-twenties had already become famous for his glaciological work. continuing along some of his advisor’s lines of research, brückner wrote his 1885 dissertation on the glaciation of the salzach area in austria. united by their common interests, brückner and penck would become frequent and prolific collaborators. their joint work culminated in the three-volume study die alpen im eiszeitalter (“the alps during the glacial epoch”), whose final tome appeared in 1909. 11 almost twenty-five years before this publication, brückner had started his academic career at the deutsche seewarte – a governmental institute for maritime meteorology led by the climatologist wladimir köppen. it was there in hamburg that brückner developed his first preliminary hypothesis of climate cycles, which grew out of his observations of ongoing glacial oscillations with short periodicities. in 1888, he took up a professorship at the university in bern and continued his climatological and glaciological work. after a short stint at the university of halle from 1904 to 1906, brückner became albrecht penck’s successor at the university of vienna, where he would stay and work until the end of his life in 1927. brückner’s studies on climate oscillations – and indeed the development of nineteenth-century climatology as a whole – have to be placed in the context of disciplinary debates. when brückner shifted his focus from glaciers to the less demarcated subject of “climate” in the 1880s, he joined an assorted assembly of practitioners with different disciplinary backgrounds and different approaches to the field. while the study of climatic phenomena already had a long history at that point, “climatology” was an emergent academic discipline in the late nineteenth century. 12 its practitioners worked in the fields of geography, geology, and meteorology – disciplines that were themselves still in the process of finding a distinct identity in institutional academia. 13 one of the leading voices in the growing climatological community of the late nineteenth century was the austrian julius hann, who authored the first large climatological textbook, in which he provided the often-cited definition of climate as the “mean condition of the atmosphere in a particular place at the surface of the earth.” 14 while this 1883 description explicitly included the dimension of the atmosphere, both the local character of climate – its “particular place” – and the focus on the lowest strata of the atmosphere were central to the definition. hann’s definition was by no means the only one at the time. “climate” implied diverse parameters and disciplinary connections among the variety of geologists, 11 albrecht penck and eduard brückner, die alpen im eiszeitalter, 3 vols. (leipzig: tauchnitz, 1909). 12 for a recent overview article of the study of climates before the nineteenth century, see: jean-baptiste fressoz and fabien locher, “l’agir humain sur le climat et la naissance de la climatologie historique, xviie-xviiie siècles,” revue d’histoire moderne et contemporaine 62, no. 1 (2015): 48–78. 13 on the history of disciplinary formation in the nineteenth century, see for instance: david cahan, ed., from natural philosophy to the sciences: writing the history of nineteenth-century science (chicago: university of chicago press, 2003); on the development of the discipline of geography in germany, see: hans-dietrich schultz, die deutschsprachige geographie von 1800 bis 1970: ein beitrag zur geschichte ihrer methodologie (berlin: selbstverlag des geographischen instituts der freien universität berlin, 1980). 14 julius von hann, handbuch der klimatologie (stuttgart: j. engelhorn, 1883), 1; for the english version, see: julius von hann, handbook of climatology, trans. by robert decourcy ward (london: macmillan, 1903); it is not without irony that hann, who explicitly conceived of climatology as an auxiliary science to meteorology, was one of the most important figures in the disciplinary consolidation of the field. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 53 botanists, medical doctors, colonial geographers, and others who worked with the term. 15 alexander von humboldt’s 1845 description of climate as “changes [or “changeable parameters”] in the atmosphere that affect our organs in discernable ways” was still a frequently cited point of reference in the late nineteenth century, although by that time its practical significance was largely limited to the sub-field of medical meteorology. 16 hann’s definition, by contrast, was an attempt to distill the essence of the eclectic climatological work of the time. still echoing aristotelian conceptions, hann described “climate” as a characteristic of a certain region and thus a feature of its geography. he also drew parallels to common geographic approaches by describing climatology as “more descriptive” compared to meteorology, which he deemed closer to the physical sciences. 17 most nineteenth-century authors of climatological studies were indeed trained in the telluric fields of geology and geography. this common career trajectory was at least partly due to both questions of climatic changes arising from the geological debates about ice ages around the middle of the nineteenth century and the blossoming of geographical approaches in the context of a renewed imperial impulse in europe around the same time. 18 brückner himself combined his geological and geographical training in his ongoing work on glaciology, and he published his climate oscillations in a series of “geographical treatises” by the vienna publishing house of eduard hölzel. although the book caused a stir in the climatological community, it was not a deus ex machina that suddenly introduced the issue of climatic instability and climatic variations to the field. brückner was taking part in one of the defining debates of climatology in the late nineteenth century – especially among the active germanophone community of practitioners. 19 even in the early article version of the book – revealingly 15 on the historical complexity of the term and the concept of “climate,” see: james rodger fleming and vladimir jankovic, “introduction: revisiting klima,” osiris 26, no. 1 (january 1, 2011): 1–15; on the same topic, see also james rodger fleming’s contribution in this special issue. 16 alexander von humboldt, kosmos: entwurf einer physischen weltbeschreibung, vol. 1 (stuttgart: cotta, 1845), 340; see also: karl-heinz bernhardt, “alexander von humboldts auffassung vom klima und sein beitrag zur einrichtung von meteorologischen stationsnetzen,” zeitschrift für meteorologie 34, no. 4 (1984): 213–217; karl-heinz bernhardt, “alexander von humboldts beitrag zu entwicklung und institutionalisierung von meteorologie und klimatologie im 19. jahrhundert,” algorismus no. 41 (2003): 195–221. 17 hann, handbuch der klimatologie, 3. 18 on the intellectual origins and the development of the ice age theory, see: martin j. s. rudwick, worlds before adam: the reconstruction of geohistory in the age of reform (chicago: university of chicago press, 2008), chap. 13, 34–36; tobias krüger, discovering the ice ages: international reception and consequences for a historical understanding of climate (leiden: brill, 2013); john imbrie and katherine palmer imbrie, ice ages: solving the mystery (cambridge: harvard university press, 1986), 19–57; on the imperial context of the rise and formation of geography as an academic discipline in the nineteenth century, see: david n. livingstone, the geographical tradition: episodes in the history of a contested enterprise (oxford, uk: blackwell publishers, 1993), 216–259; felix driver, geography militant: cultures of exploration and empire (oxford, uk: blackwell publishers, 2001); sebastian lentz and ferjan ormeling, eds., die verräumlichung des welt-bildes: petermanns geographische mitteilungen zwischen “explorativer geographie” und der “vermessenheit” europäischer raumphantasien. (stuttgart: f. steiner, 2008). 19 for some central documents from this debate, see: theobald fischer, studien über das klima der mittelmeerländer, ergänzungsheft zu petermanns geographischen mitteilungen 58 (gotha: j. perthes, 1879); franz von czerny, die veränderlichkeit des klimas und ihre ursachen (vienna: a. hartleben, 1881); theobald fischer, “zur frage der klima-änderung im südlichen mittelmeergebiet und in der nördlichen sahara,” petermanns mitteilungen aus justus perthes’ geographischer anstalt 29 (1883): 1–4; history of meteorology 7 (2015) 54 entitled “in how far is today’s climate stable?” – brückner emphasized that his contribution was to be seen against the background of the debate on climate change and variation in historic times – a debate that was directly questioning the definition of climates as stable, long-term averages of atmospheric conditions. 20 indeed, brückner believed that he had solved the issue by showing that the apparent unidirectional or progressive changes of climate that his colleagues identified were simply the up or, alternatively, the down of one climatological cycle. 21 his work was nevertheless neither the beginning nor the end of the debate, as variability continued to be one of the defining objects of climatological investigation. despite hann’s insistence of climatology as a science of averages and means, even the handbook author himself – just like alexander von humboldt before him – took changes and variations to be defining characteristics of climates. 22 this gave another impetus to researchers attempting to identify weather anomalies and their relation to larger processes of climatic change. 23 the research into climatic variability posed serious challenges to climate scientists in the late nineteenth century. the network of meteorological stations was fast expanding around the globe, but the stations could only provide data series for certain parameters, like precipitation and temperature, and covered limited time periods. 24 for any information on the past conditions of climates – so vital for the debates on climatic changes – practitioners had to turn to alternative sources, which often included textual evidence from past centuries, eyewitness accounts, and any kind of material sources that promised information on past environmental conditions. with its collection from vintage date records to descriptions of harsh winters, brückner’s work was thus an outstanding example of the eclectic climatological approach of the time, still praised forty years later for its use of diverse datasets to shed light on climatic conditions before the existence of reliable meteorological records. 25 the inclusion of all kinds of different data in climate studies, however, was not a response born solely of necessity. rather, it was in accordance with the tradition of nineteenth-century geography to combine the available quantitative information with joseph partsch, “über den nachweis einer klimaänderung der mittelmeerländer in geschichtlicher zeit,” in verhandlungen des viii. deutschen geographentages (berlin: w. pormetter, 1889), 116–125; see also: moritz flügel, nico stehr, and hans von storch, “the 19th century discussion of climate variability and climate change: analogies for the present debate?,” world resource review 7, no. 4 (1995): 589–605. 20 brückner, in wie weit ist das heutige klima konstant?, 101. 21 brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 288–289. 22 in the third edition of hann’s handbook, the part about climatic variability made up more than 40 pages and included discussions of the theories of brückner, arrhenius, and james croll, among others; see: julius von hann, handbuch der klimatologie, 3rd ed. (stuttgart: j. engelhorn, 1908), 345–388. 23 cf.: deborah r. coen, “climate and circulation in imperial austria,” the journal of modern history 82, no. 4 (december 1, 2010): 846. 24 see: katharine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: university of chicago press, 2005); on the development of nineteenth-century meteorological observation in europe and, in particular, in france, see: fabien locher, le savant et la tempête: étudier l’atmosphère et prévoir le temps au xixe siècle (rennes: presses universitaires de rennes, 2008); on the development of meteorological observations in germany in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, see: klaus wege, die entwicklung der meteorologischen dienste in deutschland (offenbach am main: deutscher wetterdienst, 2002); see also: james rodger fleming, historical perspectives on climate change (new york: oxford university press, 1998), 33–44. 25 see, for example: karl knoch, klima und klimaschwankungen (leipzig: quelle & meyer, 1930), 124– 125. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 55 qualitative sources – and natural scientific with humanistic evidence – to achieve a holistic representation of the ganzheit, or the “whole,” of the landscape or region in question. 26 this holistic approach was also evident in brückner’s work. in climate oscillations, he presented his diverse data in the form of text, tables, and graphs. while detailed descriptions of datasets were still the norm in climatological writing – a practice that the lengthy climate oscillations exemplified – brückner also increasingly used visual representations to bring across his points. in his data tables, he showcased the impressive chronological and thematic range of his evidence – in one example, and on one single page, presenting his use of data of grave harvest dates, the frequencies of cold winters, and ice conditions in rivers, lakes, and glaciers in europe over a period of nearly nine hundred years (fig. 1). to visualize the climatic oscillations and to highlight their global extent beyond the european continent, brückner used line-graphs that showed the fairly synchronous ups and downs of the climatic cycles on different continents and a curve for the “entire earth” produced by the averaging of local numerical data (fig. 2). with his use of line graphs, brückner also attempted to demonstrate the regularity and wave-like characteristics of the climatic fluctuations (schwankungen), a term he used interchangeably with the loanword “oscillations” (oszillationen) from the physical sciences. 26 see: geoffrey j. martin and t. s. martin, all possible worlds: a history of geographical ideas, 4th ed. (new york: oxford university press, 2005), 7–8; for an account of the subjects and methods of nineteenthcentury geography, see: r. d. dikshit, geographical thought: a contextual history of ideas (new delhi: prentice-hall of india, 1997); as dikshit argues on pp. 63-65, geography itself underwent a “crisis of identity” in the late nineteenth century, as its holistic methods came into conflict with a more general move towards disciplinary specialization; for a discussion of the notion of “unity” in german geographical thought, see: richard hartshorne, the nature of geography: a critical survey of current thought in the light of the past (lancaster: association of american geographers, 1949), 264–267. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 56 fig. 1: “secular oscillations of the climate represented by the oscillations of the grape harvest, the frequency of cold winters, and the ice conditions in rivers, lakes, and glaciers,” representing data from 1020 to 1890 (brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 271). history of meteorology 7 (2015) 57 fig. 2: “regular secular oscillations of rainfall sorted by continent and as a mean for the entire earth” representing data from 1831-1885 (brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 171). in other aspects of his work, however, brückner looked to different disciplines for inspiration. his holistic approach to the study of climate explicitly included social, economic, and political dimensions. he introduced his 1889 presentation with a reference to the “deep impact” that climatic changes would have on “the entire existence and history of meteorology 7 (2015) 58 activities of mankind.” 27 he then spent three of the remaining thirteen pages discussing the potential impact of climatic variations on agriculture and economy, correlating climatic cycles with cycles in production and trade. 28 in the book version and a following article, brückner repeated the concerns, deepening the discussion of a correlation between climatic and economic cycles. 29 this correlation had been the subject of a number of articles in the late eighteenth century, among them notable contributions by the economist william stanley jevons. 30 and the topic would continue to be of interest in the early twentieth century, when the geographer and climatologist ellsworth huntington wrote on “climatic variations and economic cycles” after reading brückner's work. 31 going beyond the question of economic cycles, brückner also widened the extent of his analysis by including discussions of the particular vulnerability of arid regions to climatic fluctuations and the observed influence of climate variations on the frequency of disease. 32 the scope of brückner’s work was large, both in its use of diverse kinds of data from around the world and its explicit connections to human concerns. climate, for him, was not just a physical phenomenon to be described by scientists, but a powerful force with deep socio-economic and cultural repercussions. nineteenth-century climatology – just like the victorian meteorology that katharine anderson has described in detail – displayed a marked “emphasis on the integration of culture.” 33 data debates the inclusive approach of brückner’s work was not out of the ordinary in nineteenthcentury climatological studies. in fact, the eclectic methods to gather historical information from various sources were part of the familiar methodology of the altertumswissenschaften, or classical studies, upon which european university education was built. as diverse as the views of different practitioners were, they shared the common vocabulary of the greek and latin canon and were accustomed to working with hilfswissenschaften, or “auxiliary sciences,” that could provide the evidence and data to allow glimpses of the distant past beyond the relatively short records of standardized, quantitative data from meteorological stations (see, for instance, the limited chronological scope of rainfall data in fig. 2). 27 brückner, in wie weit ist das heutige klima konstant?, 101: “solche [klimaänderungen] aber könnten nicht ohne den tiefgehendsten einfluss auf das ganze leben und treiben des menschengeschlchts bleiben.” 28 ibid., 110–112. 29 eduard brückner, “der einfluß der klimaschwankungen auf die ernteerträge und getreidepreise in europa,” geographische zeitschrift 1, no. 1 (january 1, 1895): 39–51. 30 for jevons’ work on the sunspot-commerce correlation, see among other articles: william stanley jevons, “commercial crises and sun-spots,” nature 19, no. 472 (1878): 33–37; william stanley jevons, “the solar commercial cycle,” nature 26 (1882): 226–228; brückner referred to william stanley jevons’ work on trade and business cycles, but refuted all correlation between the 35-year climate cycle and sunspot variation; see: brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 289, 292, 301–302, 324; on the role of the sunspot debate in the development of statistics, see: theodore m. porter, the rise of statistical thinking, 18201900 (princeton: princeton university press, 1986), 274–278. 31 ellsworth huntington, “climatic variations and economic cycles,” geographical review 1, no. 3 (1916): 192–202. 32 brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 272–283. 33 anderson, predicting the weather, 4; on climate-culture links in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, see also: james rodger fleming and vladimir jankovic, eds., klima, vol. 26, osiris (chicago: university of chicago press, 2011). history of meteorology 7 (2015) 59 the ensuing diversity of evidence, however, still posed great challenges, which led to the “grave confusion” that brückner perceived in climate change debates of the late nineteenth century. 34 in climate oscillations, brückner took inventory of the many different opinions about climate variations, listing the sometimes-ambiguous source material from historical accounts about the disappearance of oases to viticultural geography, and calling into question the validity of some of the proposed evidence.35 the critique pointed to more general questions: how could climatologists compare the commonly cited descriptions of north african environments by herodotus to colonial data series of precipitation and barometric pressure from the nineteenth century? how could they square the often-contradictory accounts about climatic conditions written by imperial explorers? and how could they sort “good” from “bad” data, when the evaluation required intimate knowledge in areas as far apart as modern meteorological technology and the exegesis of classical greek geographical treatises? these questions could not be brushed aside easily. after all, the contentious debate over climatic changes and variations was in full swing in the late nineteenth century. based on descriptions by past and present explorers of the mediterranean region and north africa, the german geographer theobald fischer and some of his colleagues argued for an ongoing expansion of desert conditions, which could not be explained solely through human action. the immediate reactions to these claims were divided into three distinct groups: there were the contributions that agreed and mused about various geological or cosmic causes for large climatic changes; those that agreed with the finding of large climatic changes, but found human actions, such as deforestation or the destruction of irrigation works, sufficient to explain the phenomena; and finally those that argued against any major climatic change having taken or taking place in either north africa, the mediterranean, or anywhere else around the globe. 36 the contributors to the debate frequently attacked their opponents by claiming reliance on untrustworthy, incompatible, or unstandardized evidence, but often had to rely on the very same data for information on past climates. franz von czerny, for instance, lamented in 1887 that the “young science of meteorology” could not yet provide sufficient – and sufficiently reliable – data from past centuries for conclusive climatological answers; but he still used the existence of ruins in desert regions as evidence to bolster claims that the climate had, in fact, changed during historical times. 37 authors on different sides of the debate would sometimes even use the same or similar evidence to back up widely divergent or even contradictory arguments, further demonstrating the problems of historical proxy data. the travelogues of the german sahara explorer heinrich barth, for example, were used to argue both for and against an ongoing desiccation in the region. 38 and in an attempted overview of the climate change 34 brückner, in wie weit ist das heutige klima konstant?, 115. 35 brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 10–49. 36 see footnote #19. 37 czerny, die veränderlichkeit des klimas und ihre ursachen, 1–4. 38 see: heinrich barth, wanderungen durch das punische und kyrenäische küstenland oder mâg’reb, afrikîa und barka, 2 vols. (berlin: wilhelm hertz, 1849); heinrich barth, reisen und entdeckungen in nordund central-afrika in den jahren 1849 bis 1855, 5 vols. (gotha: justus perthes, 1857); for the use of barth’s writings in support of climatic changes in north africa, see, for instance: fischer, studien über das klima der mittelmeerländer, 44; fischer, “klima-änderung im südlichen mittelmeergebiet und in der nördlichen sahara,” 3–4; for the use of barth’s writings against theories of progressive climatic changes in history of meteorology 7 (2015) 60 debate, brückner himself highlighted the fact that it “seems almost like a psychological puzzle, that for one and the same country serious scientists have at every step insisted on climate changes which are mutually exclusive.” 39 despite claims by czerny and others that there was not enough material to arrive at a consensus over potential climatic instability, the diversity of the evidence used in the debate shows that practitioners were actually confronted with a large – and always growing – wealth of sometimes-ambiguous data. this issue of heterogeneous data made practitioners vulnerable to attacks questioning the commensurability and trustworthiness of the evidence used. to deal with the difficulties, hann sometimes focused on delimited, particular localities to extrapolate universal climatic rules. one instance of this approach was his generalization of climatic conditions in mountainous regions constructed on the basis of information of one particular stretch of the alps. 40 similarly, brückner extrapolated his universal climate cycles from his findings in europe, for which he had the most complete datasets (fig. 1). while the available historic data on grape harvests and the incidence of cold winters only gave evidence about european conditions, he argued, “we should not disguise the fact that indirectly [the proof] is of universal significance around the globe.” 41 this is not to say that brückner did not try hard enough to get information from other parts of the world. in fact, he collected as much evidence as he could, but then ended up having to bend some of the data to fit his inductive model of universal 35-year climatic cycles. 42 the biggest problem, however, persisted despite the effort of climatologists to bring order into their varied datasets: while the existing evidence could be marshaled to point to the presence of one or another kind of climatic change or oscillation, the potential causes for these processes were not inherent in the data. and without a convincing explanatory mechanism, the debate over climate change was set to continue without a generally accepted resolution. despite their interpretative differences, all sides of the debate were unified by an omnipresent uncertainty and evasiveness when it came to the discussion of the potential mechanism behind climatic changes. practitioners marshaled competing hypotheses about solar influences, changes in land elevation, changes in oceanic circulation, shifts in the shape of the earth’s orbit, changes in the earth’s axis alignment, the impact of volcanic activity, and human action. none of these explanations could gather unified support, as the causal models remained not only based on different and sometimes contradictory data sets, but also unverifiable. 43 brückner, for the region, see, for instance: hermann leiter, die frage der klimaänderung während geschichtlicher zeit in nordafrika, abhandlungen der k. k. geographischen gesellschaft in wien 8 (vienna: r. lechner, 1909). 39 brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 34–35; the english translation is taken from: eduard brückner, “climate change since 1700,” in eduard brückner: the sources and consequences of climate change and climate variability in historical times, ed. by hans von storch and nico stehr (dordrecht: kluwer academic publishers, 2000), 117–118. 40 julius von hann, die temperaturverhältnisse der österreichischen alpenländer (vienna: kaiserliche akademie der wissenschaften, 1884); this case is described in: coen, “climate and circulation in imperial austria,” 856–857. 41 brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 272 [my translation]. 42 one case in point was brückner’s treatment of incongruities of european rainfall data from the eighteenth century; see: ibid., 266–267; for the english translation of this part, see: brückner, “climate change since 1700,” 160–161. 43 for a short overview of the competing theories, see: spencer weart, the discovery of global warming (cambridge: harvard university press, 2003), 1–18; see also: fleming, historical perspectives on climate history of meteorology 7 (2015) 61 all of his detailed work in gathering meteorological and climatological evidence and in performing data analyses, sounded vague in discussing the mechanisms behind his proposed thirty-five year cycles. in the short section on the subject in his book, he elusively expressed his “conjecture that processes on the sun may possibly be the cause of the climatic oscillations.” 44 in his attempts to define climatology, julius hann had considered the possibility of describing it as a descriptive sub-field of meteorology, but the short shrift given to causal mechanisms was not – or at least not only – because all climatologists freely chose to delimit their work in this way. 45 rather, climatology was forced to be a descriptive discipline, because explanatory hypotheses could not be tested or substantiated. on the one hand, cosmic theories of climatic changes often lacked sufficient data. on the other, the investigation of potential telluric causes for climatic changes was often hampered by the mass of heterogeneous and controversial data from different environments, which made any attempt at constructing syntheses or viable models difficult. 46 this conundrum led some climatologists to review their own data practices. one year before the publication of brückner’s main study, joseph partsch had already criticized the “uncertainties of method” among climatologists in dealing with historical information. while partsch – trained as a geographer, philologist, and historian – conceded that the historical methods were indispensable for climate scientists, he saw a lack of standardized guidelines for the interpretation of historical evidence and the undue focus on reports on weather extremes as some of the main issues. 47 a few years later, wladimir köppen mirrored partsch’s critique by casting doubt on the accuracy and comparability of historical accounts of climates: with an illustrative example of classical descriptions of northern europe, köppen highlighted the fact that cultural evaluations often influenced the characterization of climatic conditions. 48 brückner himself joined the critics in likening his overview of the literature on climatic changes to “[walking] through a veritable labyrinth without the benefit of ariadne’s clew.” 49 after the turn of the century, the criticism of climatological methods change, 65 ff; nico stehr and hans von storch, klima, wetter, mensch (opladen: barbara budrich, 2010), 77–79; robert p. beckinsale, richard j. chorley, and j. dunn, eds., the history of the study of landforms, or, the development of geomorphology, vol. 3 (london: routledge, 1991), 48–56; andré berger, “a brief history of the astronomical theories of paleoclimates,” in climate change, ed. by andré berger, fedor mesinger, and djordje sijacki (vienna: springer, 2012), 107–129. 44 brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 240 [my translation]. 45 hann, handbuch der klimatologie, 2–3. 46 i am using “models” here in the sense of collections of observations and rules and not in the more narrowly defined sense of paul edwards as “mathematical simulations, based on physical principles, of […] long-term atmospheric conditions.” paul n. edwards, “representing the global atmosphere: computer models, data, and knowledge about climate change,” in changing the atmosphere: expert knowledge and environmental governance, ed. by clark a. miller and paul n. edwards (cambridge: mit press, 2001), 31–65; for an example of early modeling, see for instance: vladimir janković, “climates as commodities: jean pierre purry and the modelling of the best climate on earth,” studies in history and philosophy of science part b: studies in history and philosophy of modern physics 41, no. 3 (september 2010): 201–207. 47 partsch, “über den nachweis einer klimaänderung der mittelmeerländer.” 48 wladimir köppen, “die gegenwärtige lage und die neueren fortschritte der klimatologie,” geographische zeitschrift 1 (1895): 625. 49 brückner, klimaschwankungen seit 1700, 34; the english translation is taken from: brückner, “climate change since 1700,” 115. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 62 and results became even more outspoken. in 1901, the swedish meteorologist nils ekholm reflected on the impossibility to draw any definite conclusions about climatic changes in the historical past: it remains to consider the variations of the climate during the historical period. here we certainly find a richer material of observations than before, but at the same time such a want of order and regularity that it seems at present nearly impossible to obtain a survey of and establish a connection between the shifting phenomena. here we cannot see the wood for trees. first, during the last hundred or hundred and fifty years, since there began to be regular meteorological observations, the survey becomes easier; but then, on the other hand, the time is too short, so that from this reason no reliable conclusions can be drawn. moreover, the material is so rich that the energy of a single man is insufficient to work it out. 50 a few pages later ekholm referred to the meteorological data series from various european cities, concluding that “[w]hether the climatic variations during the last 100 or 150 years here considered are periodic, progressive, or accidental cannot yet be decided.” 51 this was, among other things, an attack on brückner’s conclusions. while ekholm’s summary may say more about his own cautious stance in the climate change debate than represent an unbiased overview, his insistence on data issues is telling. it was not so much a lack of data, but rather the overly “rich material” in climatology that ekholm deplored. the diverse data drawn from different times, sources, and places represented an astounding archive of information; but for climatologists who aspired to establish their still young field in the academic landscape, this eclectic and heterogeneous archive of non-standardized data was also difficult to deal with. it offered a wealth of data, but little hope for clear-cut answers and causal explanations. towards a dynamic climatology? the debates among practitioners about the collection, analysis, and interpretation of diverse data sets heralded a period of disciplinary uncertainty, which opened up a number of potential avenues for the study of climatic phenomena in the early twentieth century. one of these avenues led towards a convergence – or, rather, an anticipated convergence – with new approaches in physical meteorology and, thus, to a shift of focus away from brückner’s eclectic archive of historical weather information and towards a bias for physics, causal models, and the upper realms of the atmosphere. this is neither to say that the field of climatology underwent a sudden transformation nor that approaches and practices in meteorology were uncontroversial and uniform. in any case, the borders between the two fields remained amorphous, or at least blurred, with many practitioners working on both issues of weather and climate. nineteenth-century meteorology had struggled with some of the same data, issues, and approaches – and thus, some of the same difficulties – as climatological studies. 50 nils ekholm, “on the variations of the climate of the geological and historical past and their causes,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 27, no. 117 (1901): 46; a digital version of this article can be accessed at: http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/pale_classicarticles/globalwarming.html (item #5). 51 ibid., 59. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 63 moreover, the status of climatology continued to be ambiguous, perceived alternatively as an independent field of inquiry necessary for the construction of meteorological theories, or as an auxiliary science to meteorology.52 and nineteenth-century meteorology, just like climatology, grappled with the role and methodological function of the new science of statistics and with its own acceptance as an exact science within the academic community. 53 cleveland abbe summarized his view of the shortcomings of his discipline in a sweeping critique in 1895: “hitherto, the professional meteorologist has too frequently been only an observer, a statistician, an empiricist rather than a mechanician, mathematician and physicist.” 54 by that time, however, the criticism’s sweeping claim was not applicable to the whole field of meteorology anymore: distancing themselves from purely empirical and inductive approaches, some nineteenth-century physical meteorologists had attempted to move towards abbe’s ideals and had established a “theoretical tradition” in meteorology.55 as katherine anderson has shown, these practitioners already dealt with “accounts of the dynamics of the atmosphere,” while the bulk of climatological work continued to be beholden to the telluric sciences and the hippocratic focus on place and nature. 56 the ongoing disciplinary discussions around climate change debates around the turn of the century, however, challenged this distinction. some climatologists started to envision their field turning away from the eclectic archives of terrestrial, historical evidence and towards the atmosphere in search for causal mechanisms behind climatic phenomena. they looked to developments in dynamic meteorology as an opportunity to gain more insight into global climatic dynamics and to refashion their own field of study along the lines of new developments in the study of weather. the growing emphasis on atmospheric dynamics was becoming an increasingly viable avenue of research with the continuing international efforts for a coordinated collection and standardization of quantifiable data from meteorological stations and the development of atmospheric circulation models: 57 william ferrel had worked on general circulation as early as the 1850s. 58 and vilhelm bjerknes – prodded by none other than ekholm to start working in the field of geophysics – began to develop his influential model of a “general circulation theorem” in the 1890s, before publishing his seminal article on “the problem of weather prediction, regarded from the vantage point of 52 hann himself referred to this ambiguity by describing a wider and a narrower way of conceptualizing meteorology; see: hann, handbook of climatology, 2. 53 see: anderson, predicting the weather, 131–170; frederik nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century, international geophysics series 60 (san diego: academic press, 1995), 21–24. 54 cited in: nebeker, calculating the weather, 28. 55 the term is borrowed from: ibid., 27–35. 56 anderson, predicting the weather, 8; on seventeenthand eighteenth-century ideas of weather and climate, which continued to be important in the nineteenth century, see: vladimir janković, reading the skies: a cultural history of english weather, 1650-1820 (manchester: manchester university press, 2000); jan golinski, british weather and the climate of enlightenment (chicago: the university of chicago press, 2007). 57 as paul edwards points out, the collection and standardization of meteorological data from around the world did not always go smoothly; see: paul n. edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism,” osiris 21, 2nd series (january 1, 2006): 229–250; the international meteorological organization (later world meteorological organization or wmo), founded in 1873 nevertheless held the promise for a bright future of standardized and global data sets. 58 see: william ferrel, an essay on the winds and the currents of the ocean (cameron & fall, 1856). history of meteorology 7 (2015) 64 mechanics and physics” in 1904. 59 in just seven pages, bjerknes laid out an integrated approach in dynamic meteorology, combining theoretical and practical dimensions. 60 remarkably, bjerknes managed to do that without a single equation, which may have contributed to the widespread reception of the article. and while bjerknes conceived of his work explicitly as a response to the “prognosis problem of meteorology” – or what james fleming describes as the “gordian knot” of meteorology in this volume – the disciplinary developments caught the eye of scientists working on climatic issues as well. 61 in an 1895 review article about the state of his field, köppen had already described the “general circulation of the atmosphere” as one of the “central issues of climatology.” 62 he cited a long and eclectic tradition of work on atmospheric circulation from william ferrel, the norwegians henrik mohn and cato maximilian guldberg, to the german physicist and industrialist werner siemens. 63 for köppen, this emphasis on atmospheric processes also meant that climatology was moving closer towards meteorology, with the “geographical element taking a backseat.” 64 and it was from these meteorological investigations into atmospheric dynamics that köppen expected “light,” or new impulses and insights, for climatology. 65 the disciplinary developments in climatology that would eventually bring the discipline over to the field of atmospheric physics were slow and would only come to full fruition in the second half of the twentieth century, where many accounts of modern climate science begin. 66 bjerknes himself still lacked both computational capacity and sufficient data on atmospheric conditions to make full use of his mathematical models of 59 vilhelm bjerknes, “über einen hydrodynamischen fundamentalsatz und seine anwendung besonders auf die mechanik der atmosphäre und des weltmeeres,” kungl. svenska vetenskaps-akedemiens handlingar 31 (1898): 1–35; vilhelm bjerknes, “das dynamische princip der cirkulationsbewegungen in der atmosphäre,” meteorologische zeitschrift 17 (1900): 97–106; vilhelm bjerknes, “das problem der wettervorhersage, betrachtet vom standpunkte der mechanik und der physik,” meteorologische zeitschrift 21 (1904): 1–7; vilhelm bjerknes et al., dynamic meteorology and hydrography, 2 vols. (washington, dc: carnegie institution of washington, 1910); vilhelm bjerknes, “the structure of the atmosphere when rain is falling,” quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 46, no. 194 (1920): 119– 140; on bjerknes’ influence on twentieth-century meteorology, see: robert marc friedman, appropriating the weather: vilhelm bjerknes and the construction of a modern meteorology (ithaca: cornell university press, 1989); alan j. thorpe, hans volkert, and michal j. ziemianski, “the bjerknes’ circulation theorem: a historical perspective,” bulletin of the american meteorological society 84, no. 4 (2003): 471–480; sigbjørn grønås, “vilhelm bjerknes’ vision for scientific weather prediction,” in the nordic seas: an integrated perspective. oceanography, climatology, biogeochemistry, and modeling, ed. by helge drange et al. (washington, dc: american geophysical union, 2005), 357–366; gabriele gramelsberger, “conceiving meteorology as the exact science of the atmosphere: vilhelm bjerknes’s paper of 1904 as a milestone,” meteorologische zeitschrift 18, no. 6 (2009): 669–673. 60 cf.: gramelsberger, “conceiving meteorology,” 672; see also: nebeker, calculating the weather, 47–57. 61 bjerknes, “das problem der wettervorhersage,” 1; for fleming’s description of bjerknes’ contribution to unravelling the gordian knot of meteorology, see his contribution in this volume. 62 köppen, “die gegenwärtige lage und die neueren fortschritte der klimatologie,” 626. 63 on mohn’s approach to climatology, see gunnar ellingsen’s article in this volume. 64 köppen, “die gegenwärtige lage und die neueren fortschritte der klimatologie,” 627. 65 ibid. 66 see, for instance: weart, the discovery of global warming; in his recollections, the climatologist joseph smagorinsky also dated the shift of climatology from “a branch of descriptive geography to one of quantitative physical science” to the late 1950s; see: j. smagorinsky, “the beginnings of numerical weather prediction and general circulation modeling: early recollections,” advances in geophysics 25 (1983): 36. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 65 atmospheric dynamics. 67 he avowed in 1904 that “a strict analytical integration” of the equations was not possible and proposed the use of graphical methods to solve his own multivariable equations. 68 after his return from germany to norway in 1917, bjerknes told his colleague arrhenius that the dynamic approach in meteorology was still far from becoming an applied tool or – in his own words – “[t]here is still a long way to go to anything practical.” 69 arrhenius himself had voiced similar concerns about dynamic meteorology in 1903 and advised the tackling of simple problems instead of systematic issues. 70 bjerknes’ ideas ran up against issues of feasibility and they neither managed to transform the field of meteorology nor unify its practitioners and their approaches overnight. despite the evident obstacles, bjerknes was generally optimistic about the future of his approach. 71 and in fact, the methods of graphical integration that he proposed and practiced would serve as the cornerstone of the bergen school, which would become highly influential in weather forecasting in the interwar years. 72 bjerknes’ 1904 vision of a “dynamic” meteorology as an atmospheric physical science based on a combination of thermoand fluid dynamics was a new avenue in research that slowly but steadily gained appeal, even beyond the field of applied meteorology. 73 despite the practical limitations of the dynamical approach at the time, many of bjerknes’ contemporaries, including a number of climatologists, saw a potential for the future. a focus on atmospheric dynamics promised physical models of climatic phenomena that could – at least potentially – hold answers to some of the central questions of climatic variations and changes. bjerknes’ methods were thus far removed from brückner’s historical study of climate cycles, which paid little attention to atmospheric phenomena or causal mechanisms. the bergen group’s approaches would, in fact, contribute to a widening of the gap between telluric and atmospheric approaches in the study of climate: in their 1910/11 textbook, bjerknes and his co-authors set their own “dynamic method” apart from the “climatological method,“ which they regarded as unable to deal with the ”irregular phenomena" of the atmosphere because of their focus on means and averages. 74 some meteorologists now turned explicitly against climatology – meaning climatology of the brücknerian kind – as an outdated method. the term “climatology” itself appeared more and more as a term of abuse among physically and atmosphericallyminded meteorologists. in their eyes, climatology became the old-fashioned, stubborn, 67 only in the 1960s did computers become powerful enough to process models based on bjerknes’ equations; see: paul n. edwards, “a brief history of atmospheric general circulation modeling,” in general circulation model development, ed. by david a. randall (san diego: academic press, 2000), 70. 68 see: joseph j. tribbia and richard a. anthes, “scientific basis of modern weather prediction,” science 237 (1987): 493–499. 69 bjerknes, “das problem der wettervorhersage,” 3; the quote from bjerknes’ letter to arrhenius is taken from: ralph jewell, “tor bergeron’s first year in the bergen school: towards an historical appreciation,” pure and applied geophysics 119, no. 3 (may 1, 1980): 478. 70 arrhenius, lehrbuch der kosmischen physik, 736. 71 see: grønås, “vilhelm bjerknes’ vision for scientific weather prediction,” 360. 72 see: friedman, appropriating the weather. 73 on the importance of thermodynamics in the development of meteorological theories in the second half of the nineteenth century, see: gisela kutzbach, the thermal theory of cyclones: a history of meteorological thought in the nineteenth century (boston: american meteorological society, 1979). 74 bjerknes et al., dynamic meteorology and hydrography, v. 2, 3–4. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 66 and mildly embarrassing old relative of a young and dynamic meteorology. 75 alfred wegener, of continental-drift fame, advised meteorologists-in-training who did not want to “limit themselves to [either] practical weather forecasting or climatology […] to scrupulously study theoretical physics. the article, tellingly published in a volume on the “results of the exact natural sciences,” celebrated bjerknes as the most important innovator in meteorology. mathematical analysis,” wegener wrote, “has replaced statistics as the main tool of the meteorologist.” 76 wegener himself also played a part in making the shift towards the atmosphere possible, by collecting atmospheric readings from kite-mounted instruments he used during his greenland expeditions. with his efforts, he took part in the consolidation and expansion of atmospheric data gathering around the globe led by teisserenc de bort and richard assmann. 77 the two pioneers of aerological research both responded to a call for more atmospheric information and stimulated continued atmospheric research. with more and more data provided by balloons, airships, kites, and airplanes over the first half of the twentieth century, the upper strata of the atmosphere became an increasingly viable place for both meteorological and climatological investigation. 78 in the 1920s, promoters of a physical turn in climatology now criticized what they saw as the overly descriptive methods and the focus on averages and means by hann, and they explicitly cited bjerknes and the “norwegian school” as examples to follow. 79 and even practitioners who explicitly distanced themselves from parts of bjerknes’ work and approach, now began to think about new dynamic models of climatology. in 1921 albert defant, a student of the austrian dynamic meteorologist felix exner, provided the equation-heavy “outline of a theory of climatic variations” based on disturbances in 75 cf.: jacob darwin hamblin, “seeing the oceans in the shadow of bergen values,” isis 105, no. 2 (june 1, 2014): 354–355; as magnus vollset shows in his contribution to this volume, the low prestige of climatology among meteorologists persisted unabated into the 1940s and 1950s. 76 alfred wegener, “ergebnisse der dynamischen meteorologie,” in ergebnisse der exakten naturwissenschaften (springer, 1926), 96 [my emphasis]; see also: patrick hughes, “the meteorologist who started a revolution,” weatherwise 47, no. 2 (1994): 29–35. 77 see: friedman, appropriating the weather, 48–51, 67–69; stefan brönnimann and alexander stickler, “aerological observations in the tropics in the early twentieth century,” meteorologische zeitschrift 22, no. 3 (july 1, 2013): 349–358. 78 see: friedman, appropriating the weather, 37–38, 48–51; kutzbach, the thermal theory of cyclones, 134–139; c. lüdecke, “from the bottom to the stratosphere arctic climate features as seen from the first international polar year (1882–1883) until the end of world war ii,” in climate variability and extremes during the past 100 years, ed. by stefan brönnimann et al., advances in global change research 33 (springer netherlands, 2008), 29–45. 79 a. stevens, “the new outlook in meteorology and its geographical bearings,” the scottish geographical magazine 43, no. 4 (1927): 218–236; for a similar criticism of hann’s conception of climate and a call for new emphasis on atmospheric circulation in climate science, see: hans schrepfer, “die polarfronttheorie in ihrer bedeutung für die klimate der festländer,” geographische zeitschrift 30, no. 3 (january 1, 1924): 161–177; the portrayal of hann as part of the “old school” of climatology overlooked the fact that hann had actively supported bjerknes’ work and helped to make it known outside of scandinavia; see: friedman, appropriating the weather, 38–39; gramelsberger, “conceiving meteorology,” 671; hann had also worked on thermodynamic models to explain meteorological phenomena himself, especially in his work on föhn winds; see: julius hann, “zur frage über den ursprung des föhn,” zeitschrift der österreichischen gesellschaft für meteorologie 1 (1866): 257–263; julius hann, “der föhn in den österreichischen alpen,” zeitschrift der österreichischen gesellschaft für meteorologie 2 (1867): 433–445; julius hann, “einige bemerkungen zur entwickelungs-geschichte der ansichten über den ursprung des föhn,” meteorologische zeitschrift 20 (1885): 393–399. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 67 atmospheric circulation systems. 80 and meteorologists of the bergen school – among them vilhelm bjerknes’ son jacob – continued to supply new theoretical detail and features to the dynamic model of the atmosphere. 81 in 1930, these still disparate developments culminated in the mission statement of a new kind of “dynamic climatology” by tor bergeron, who had been a collaborator of bjerknes in bergen. in the article, bergeron called for a focus on analyses of air mass and front phenomena to bring climatology closer in line with meteorological approaches and to describe the “entirety of phenomena” (gesamterscheinungen). clearly distinct from brückner’s ambitions to create a vast searchable archive of past climatic conditions around the globe, bergeron was referring to a holistic image of the “frequencies and intensities” of dynamic atmospheric systems. 82 this, however, was not the decisive blow that bergeron may have hoped for. climatology retained its colorful range of methodologies. rather than in disciplinary revolution, the debates over data and approaches of the late nineteenth century and the proposals of an alignment with atmospheric dynamics in meteorology ensued in tentative reform and reevaluation among climatologists. “dynamic climatology” existed, above all, in calls for a new approach to the science, as in defant’s and bergeron’s respective articles. in the same year as bergeron’s publication and in a short popular volume describing the state of the field of climatology, karl knoch referred to the “harsh criticism” that traditional climatological methods had come under, but added resignedly that improvement attempts had not yet managed to “replace the old with something better that could deliver similarly significant results.” 83 knoch’s mention of the “significant results” that new climatological methods had failed to produce referred, most likely, to the still purely notional nature of new dynamic approaches in the field. it is, moreover, important to remember that the early decades of the twentieth century were also the time of the desiccationist theory of the geographer prince kropotkin and of ellsworth huntington’s climatic-cultural analyses of world history. 84 80 a. defant, “die zirkulation der atmosphäre in den gemässigten breiten der erde: grundzüge einer theorie der klimaschwankungen,” geografiska annaler 3 (january 1, 1921): 209–266 ; for exner’s main meteorological work, see: felix m. exner, dynamische meteorologie (leipzig: teubner, 1917); for more information on exner’s conceptual and methodological criticism of bjerknes’ work, see: deborah r. coen, vienna in the age of uncertainty: science, liberalism, and private life (chicago: university of chicago press, 2008), 288–292. 81 see: john e. kutzbach, “steps in the evolution of climatology: from descriptive to analytic,” in historical essays on meteorology, 1919-1995, ed. by james rodger fleming (boston: american meteorological society, 1996), 353–377. 82 tor bergeron, “richtlinien einer dynamischen klimatologie,” meteorologische zeitschrift 47, no. 7 (1930): 246–262; on bergeron’s training in the bergen school, see: jewell, “tor bergeron’s first year in the bergen school”; on bergeron’s contribution to developing the bergen cyclone model, see: friedman, appropriating the weather, 169 ff.; bergeron’s claim to novelty with his model of a “dynamic climatology” did not go undisputed; see, for instance: s. chromow, “‘dynamische klimatologie’ und dove,” zeitschrift für angewandte meteorologie 48, no. 10 (1930): 312–314. 83 knoch, klima und klimaschwankungen, 11. 84 for kropotkin’s article and the ensuing discussion, see: prince kropotkin, “the desiccation of eur-asia,” the geographical journal 23, no. 6 (june 1904): 722–734; prince kropotkin, john walter gregory, and edmond cotter, “correspondence: on the desiccation of eurasia and some general aspects of desiccation,” the geographical journal 43, no. 4 (1914): 451–459; for a selection of huntington’s work on climatic variations and changes, see: ellsworth huntington, the pulse of asia: a journey in central asia illustrating the geographical basis of history (boston: houghton mifflin, 1907); ellsworth huntington, palestine and its transformation (boston and new york: houghton mifflin, 1911); ellsworth history of meteorology 7 (2015) 68 huntington, now maybe most infamous for his eugenicist convictions, cited brückner as inspiration for his work on climatic cycles and continued the geographical, or telluric, tradition of the field. 85 thus, while some climatologists attempted to align their methods with theoretical meteorology, others moved even more definitively to a telluric and descriptive interpretation of their field of study, leading the geographer stephen jones to refer to two kinds of climatology in 1937, with “the climatology of geographers […] a long way from the climatology of meteorologists.” 86 in germany, in particular, the former branch of climatology became more closely linked to racial and völkish ideas. to name just two examples: willy hellpach – despite his deep liberal political convictions – gradually developed his theory of the psychological influences of climate to arrive at a description of climatic zones as “constitutive of völkertum [race/nation]” 87 ; and albrecht penck – brückner’s teacher and collaborator – developed ideas of a climatically-defined “kulturboden” or “cultural soil,” which would later become a central part of imperial nazi ideology. 88 conclusion huntington, “changes of climate and history,” the american historical review 18, no. 2 (january 1, 1913): 213–232; ellsworth huntington and stephen sargent visher, climatic changes: their nature and causes (new haven: yale university press, 1922); ellsworth huntington, civilization and climate, 3rd ed. (new haven: yale university press, 1924); huntington was a controversial figure even in his lifetime. especially among german-speaking geographers and climatologists, he did not enjoy a particularly high reputation for his often sensationalist work; for a scathing critique of huntington’s work, see for instance: joseph partsch, palmyra, eine historisch-klimatische studie (leipzig: b. g. teubner, 1922); eduard brückner was another critic. he wrote a letter casting doubt on huntington’s academic merits, when the latter applied (ultimately with success) for a position at yale university; see: fleming, historical perspectives on climate change, 98. 85 huntington, civilization and climate, 25. 86 cited in: william a. koelsch, “from geoto physical science: meteorology and the american university, 1919–1945,” in historical essays on meteorology, 1919-1995, ed. by james rodger fleming (boston: american meteorological society, 1996), 519; for an overview of developments and disciplinary conflicts in geography in the early twentieth century, see: livingstone, the geographical tradition, 260– 303. 87 willy hellpach, geopsyche: die menschenseele unterm einfluß von wetter und klima, boden und landschaft, 5th ed. (leipzig: wilhelm engelmann, 1939), 160; for the first edition of the book, still without the emphasis on race, see: willy hellpach, die geopsychischen erscheinungen: wetter und klima und landschaft in ihrem einfluss auf das seelenleben (leipzig: w. engelmann, 1911). 88 for penck’s influential article on “cultural soil,” see: albrecht penck, “deutscher volksund kulturboden,” in volk unter völkern: bücher des deutschtums, ed. by k. c. loesch (breslau: hirt, 1925), 62–72; on the political involvement and influence of penck’s ideas, see: hans-dietrich schultz, “‘ein wachsendes volk braucht raum’: albrecht penck als politischer geograph,” in 1810-2010: 200 jahre geographie in berlin: an der universität zu berlin (ab 1810), friedrich-wilhelms-universität zu berlin (ab 1828), universität berlin (ab 1946), humboldt-universität zu berlin (ab 1949), ed. by bernhard nitz, hans-dietrich schultz, and marlies schulz (berlin: geographisches institut der humboldt universität zu berlin, 2010), 91–135; jürgen zimmerer, “im dienste des imperiums: die geographen der berliner universität zwischen kolonialwissenschaften und ostforschung,” in universitäten und kolonialismus, ed. by andreas eckert, jahrbuch für universitätsgeschichte 7 (stuttgart: steiner, 2004), 95; mechtild rössler, “wissenschaft und lebensraum”: geographische ostforschung im nationalsozialismus ein beitrag zur disziplingeschichte der geographie, vol. 8, hamburger beiträge zur wissenschaftsgeschichte (berlin: d. reimer, 1990), 225. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 69 in the first third of the twentieth century, climatology remained a field unsure of its own identity. its practitioners were unable to overcome the data problems of research into climatic variability from the late nineteenth century, and just as unable to come up with new viable methods accepted by a majority of their peers. but this moment of disciplinary reevaluation and uncertainty also made dynamic atmospheric approaches attractive to those who had become critical of climatological data practices and who were looking for a more demarcated and deductive approach for the future of their field. brückner’s profoundly historical approach, bridging the deepening fault lines between the natural sciences and the humanities, still served as a model for the work of some climatologists, but had begun to be challenged by calls for what would become known as “dynamic climatology” – the study of climatic phenomena based on models of atmospheric dynamics. in her study on the history of population ecology, sharon kingsland has argued that "the very act of imposing mathematics (or any model) on nature often involved a rejection of history in favor of a harmonious, unifying concept.” 89 climate science – or rather, one part of climate science – exhibited a similar development in the early twentieth century. the social dimension, which had been inherent both in brückner’s historical data and in his discussions of climatic variation, began to play a lesser role in the work of those climate scientists who started to move away from the messy concerns of the earth and geography and into the atmosphere and approaches modeled on dynamic meteorology. the new numerical and mathematical approaches attempted to turn climatology into a distinctly natural science, reducing the archival and historical aspect of the discipline. the full practical application of a dynamic, numerical, and atmospheric climate science was still only a distant possibility at the time. the first calls for disciplinary reform, however, began to take shape well before the advent of both the electronic computer and fully developed atmospheric circulation models – two technologies at the center of modern dynamic climate science today. 90 in fact, the new ideas about climatological approaches in the first decades of the twentieth century were not premised on the availability of new technologies of data analysis. 91 instead, they were closely connected to both the availability – and, more often than not, the promise of the imminent availability – of numerical and standardized data from the upper realms of the atmosphere, and on the privileging of these over other kinds of data as a result of the attempts to 89 sharon e. kingsland, modeling nature: episodes in the history of population ecology, 2nd ed. (chicago: university of chicago press, 1995), 8. 90 i am borrowing the chronological sequence of “climatology” and “climate science” from: matthias heymann, “the evolution of climate ideas and knowledge,” wiley interdisciplinary reviews: climate change 1, no. 4 (2010): 581–597. 91 i am largely following jon agar’s claim here that computers did not cause a “rupture” or “phase change” in science, but rather provided new capacities for already existing approaches to solving particular problems; see: jon agar, “what difference did computers make?,” social studies of science 36, no. 6 (december 1, 2006): 869–907; see also: geoffrey c. bowker, memory practices in the sciences (cambridge: mit press, 2005), 109 ff; for a case in point, see: david sepkoski, “towards ‘a natural history of data’: evolving practices and epistemologies of data in paleontology, 1800–2000,” journal of the history of biology 46, no. 3 (august 1, 2013): 401–444; on the larger historical dimension of “datadriven” science, see: bruno j. strasser, “data-driven sciences: from wonder cabinets to electronic databases,” studies in history and philosophy of biological and biomedical science 43, no. 1 (2012): 85– 87. history of meteorology 7 (2015) 70 overcome the interconnected difficulties of heterogeneous data sets and the lack of convincing causal models. this ultimately meant that the very broad approach towards what counted as climatological evidence from the second half of the nineteenth century – exemplified by brückner’s study on climatic cycles – was challenged by a more delimited approach in the first half of the twentieth century, frequently modeled on the work of vilhelm bjerknes and his colleagues on atmospheric dynamics. meanwhile, other climatologists went further in different, and sometimes opposite, directions, focusing on the earth-bound and historical dimension of their discipline. some, like ellsworth huntington, willy hellpach, and brückner’s teacher and collaborator albrecht penck, embraced and further developed long-standing notions of climate-culture links, combining climatological, geographical, and evolutionary ideas into environmentally deterministic models of human – and occasionally of racial – development. the geographic approaches to climatic issues did not wane in the first half of the twentieth century. but they were beginning to be scrutinized and challenged by the growing calls for new dynamic-physical approaches throughout the first half of the twentieth century and beyond. acknowledgements preliminary drafts and early versions of this paper were presented at the “climate in meteorology, meteorology in climate studies” workshop in bergen, during the annual meetings of the history of science society and the american society for environmental history, and in the department ii colloquium of the max planck institute for the history of science. i would like to thank all participants for their helpful feedback and suggestions. i am particularly indebted to emily brock, mark carey, gunnar ellingsen, sabina leonelli, magnus vollset, and the anonymous reviewers of history of meteorology for their insightful comments and their valuable advice. corresponding author(s) thales de andrade, federal university of são carlos (ufscar), thales@ufscar.br paulo escada, national institute for space research (inpe), paulo.escada@inpe.br trajectories and reconversions of the center for weather forecasting and climate studies (cptec): forming the meteorological science elite in brazil thales de andrade and paulo escada introduction elites do not arise simply and spontaneously; on the contrary, they are usually produced. they are subjected to different modalities of approximations, adjustments, recruitment measures, and competence negotiations. when a specific field, or an institution, decides to form a differentiated group of agents in a given area, it needs to establish new parameters and measures of competences that are different from those in force at the previous moment.1 in the book the state nobility, bourdieu highlights that people holding high positions in the functional hierarchy of modern social apparatuses inherit their prestige and cultural capital mainly from academic degrees obtained at elite schools. passage through reference centers recognized and consecrated in the system of education and official research attests to essential differentiation that enables ascension to command positions. according to bourdieu, circulation through large schools is an element that allows the elite to reproduce itself and its distinctive symbols and control the functioning of other fields. as large holders of cultural capital (they hold the most prestigious academic titles), symbolic capital (often noble, they enjoy honors both public, such as the legion d'honneur, and private, such as membership in the most exclusive clubs), and social capital (either inherited directly from their family or acquired through marriage, attendance at a top lycée or grande école, tenure in a ministerial cabinet, or service on the board of directors of a top-ranked company), the chief executives from the parisian bourgeoisie de robe and noblesse de robe, from which the new state financial oligarchy is primarily recruited, are the personification, as it were, of a particular state of the structure of the field of economic power. 2 1 sheila jasanoff, ed., states of knowledge (new york: routledge, 2004). 2 pierre bourdieu, lauretta c. clough, and loïc wacquant, the state nobility: elite schools in the field of power (cambridge: polity press, 1996), 331. mailto:thales@ufscar.br mailto:paulo.escada@inpe.br history of meteorology 10 (2021) 2 knowledge on the functioning of large schools regarding their mechanisms of selection and evaluation of members and distribution of titles and distinctions assists with understanding how the transmission of intellectual inheritances and the continuation of some lines of research to the detriment of others occur. in reality, the importance of certain scientific agendas and the rise of new themes is not a process that is naturalized or endowed with unquestionable rationality. the dominant groups organize alliances and reconversions of interests to arbitrarily guide the movement of the scientific field on a large scale. according to saint martin,3 elite reconversion processes involve the use of strategies by which dominant social groups seek to guarantee privileged socioeconomic, cultural, and symbolic conditions amidst structural economic changes. reconversions can occur in different directions, from economic capital to school capital, from bureaucratic-political capital to economic capital, among other senses. the notion of reconversion of elites is used to translate the changes that occur in the social field of science and that can occur when groups of scientists, in general, in situations of breaking the paradigm,4 reach higher levels of notoriety and scientific excellence and, consequently, expand their scientific and symbolic capital. according to bourdieu's grammar, the attributes of notoriety and excellence are conferred according to norms and passages through rites, which are proper to the scientific field, for which the education trajectory, the titles, as well as the ascension to positions in the academic and institutional bureaucracy matter.5 the formation and strengthening of a scientific nobility, constructed and consecrated from the circulation in the same and distinctive spaces of legitimation, represent the cohesion of groups of authority that assert their prerogatives and trajectories as those that define the current excellence. in times of intense reorganization of the scientific field, the role played by authority groups is especially important. the rise and performance of low-capital members are a necessary impulse to establish new parameters of scientific activity. in this study, we advocate that the process that led to the implementation of the numerical weather prediction (nwp) in brazil favored the reconversion not only of a meteorological science elite at the national level, but also more broadly in the field of science. a similar process occurred a few years later, when the disciplinary field reorganization was driven by the emergence of studies in the field of climate change. these two transition phases were associated with external influences received by brazilian scientists with greater circulation in international research environments. however, a series of historical aspects and conditions contributed to the transition undergone by this disciplinary scientific field. within a scientific space, structuring of a new group of excellence requires a set of agreements and adjustments to reputational principles that usually present a demand for differentiation and reconversion of previously present competences. 3 monique saint martin, “reconversões e reestruturações das elites: o caso da aristocracia francesa,”análise social 30, no. 134, (1995), 1023-1039; saint martian, “da reprodução às recomposições das elites,” tomo 13 (july-dec. 2008). 4 thomas kuhn, a estrutura das revoluções científicas (são paulo: perspectiva, 1998). 5 pierre bourdieu, para uma sociologia da ciência. (lisboa: edições 70, 2004). history of meteorology 10 (2021) 3 several authors from different theoretical backgrounds have discussed the interference of scientists' behavior in establishing the research agenda on climate change.6 undoubtedly, the role played by scientists in their professional and political articulations has promoted a set of arrangements for discussing climate science that need to be debated under new perspectives. currently, there is need to analyze the dominant coalitions of this scientific agenda. the present study aims to consider this aspect in the analysis of climate science in brazil. the action of scientific elites in meteorological studies and their strategies for controlling this agenda are also important aspects, not only for the sociology of scientific knowledge, but also for environmental research. beyond scientific controversies, reputational battles are also fought within the scientific field, producing transformations in established academic hierarchies and redirecting research on meteorology and climate change. in this study, we selected and analyzed the trajectory of some researchers at cptec, as well as in the scientific field where they worked, based on public data and some interviews. many other researchers were left out of this research, but we believe that the inclusion of more scientists and their trajectories would have very little influence on our analysis. finally, we would like to highlight that it was not our intention to attribute personal value or judge positively or negatively the careers of these researchers, but rather to explore from a sociological standpoint how they overlap and correlate in a social field whose rules, norms, and rites are very specific, thus favoring and projecting scientific trajectories that hold certain characteristics over others. historical context of the meteorological science elite formation the conditions that enabled the process of reconversion of the brazilian meteorological and climatic science elites between the 1970s and 80s emerged a few decades earlier. in the 1940s, military research institutes at the aeronautics technical center (cta) and, in particular, the engineering courses at the aeronautics institute of technology (ita) were forged under the model of the massachusetts institute of technology (mit). richard smith, who had been head of the department of aeronautical engineering at the mit, was hired as the first dean of that school of engineers, between 1946-1951, when the cta and its research institutes were also being implemented.7 the brazilian air force was interested in establishing engineering courses to train highly specialized and qualified personnel to conceive and conduct large projects aiming to promote the country's scientific and technological autonomy in strategic areas. in 1961, then-president jânio quadros, enthusiastic about the results of the space race8, created the organizing group of the national commission for space activities (gocnae) through presidential decree no. 51.133. this group was led by brigadier and professor aldo 6 naomi oreskes, and erik conway, merchants of doubt:how a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming (new york: bloomsbury, 2010); mikaela sundberg, making meteorology: social relations and scientific practice. stockholm studies in sociology ns 25. stockholm: sweden, 2005); steven yearley, “sociology and climate change after kyoto: what roles for social science in understanding climate change?” current sociology 57, no.3 (may 2009), 389–405; and paul edwards, a vast machine: computer models, climate data and the politics of global warming (cambridge: mit press, 2010). 7 paulo escada, “origem, institucionalização e desenvolvimento das atividades espaciais brasileiras (1940-1980),” (dissertation, unicamp, 2005). 8former president jânio quadros received and honored soviet cosmonaut yuri gagarin, recognized as the first human to journey into outer space, a few months after his orbital flight of the earth. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 4 vieira da rosa, who also participated in the creation of the cta, and installed in the municipality of são josé dos campos, state of são paulo. the space race, disputed between the great powers, usa and ussr, boosted the scientific and technological frontiers while stimulated the new national scientific leaders organized around the military sector–some of them trained in courses at ita–to create new scientific and technological research initiatives. a former ita student and military aviator, fernando de mendonça, during his doctorate at stanford university, in contact with nasa directors and researchers, was invited to collaborate with the work of gocnae. from the united states, he sent reports describing the model, structure, and scientific areas that this new space research institution should operate. a few years later, mendonça became one of the first and longest-serving directors of the brazilian national commission for space activities (cnae), which years later would be named the national institute for space research (inpe). according to harvey, et al., the participation of this researcher was essential to promote an articulation with nasa in the first space research projects in brazil. fernando de mendonça, at that time a lieutenant of the brazilian air force studying in the stanford university in california, played an important role in these contacts. after finishing his ph.d. in radio sciences, he brought back equipment, compliments from nasa, with which a complete station for receiving signals from ionospheric satellites was assembled.9 on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the creation of inpe, its then-director gilberto câmara said: the original assignments of the cnae were typical of a space agency like nasa. they included proposing a brazilian space policy in collaboration with the itamaraty [ministry of foreign affairs], developing technical-scientific exchange and international cooperation, promoting the training of specialists, and coordinating space activities with the brazilian industry.10 it makes sense to compare the cnae with nasa. space research in brazil was established within an institutional framework in aeronautical research imported from the usa since the 1940s, combining civil and military scientific knowledge. according to schwartzmann,11 the action of the cta, a military institution, solidified the exchange of brazilian scientists with american institutions and served as a model to constitute these international scientific partnerships. in the case of the cnae (inpe as of 1971), a civil institution created under the influence of the military personnel of the air force and cta, international cooperation since its first activities was fundamental and strategic to expand research and technological development in the space area. the experience and knowledge acquired by the cnae from international scientific cooperation were considered essential even for military research institutions, which presented restrictions on establishing partnerships with developed countries. another aspect emphasized by cnae in its first years of activity was the training of specialized personnel. under the leadership of fernando de mendonça, the cnae endeavored 9 brian harvey, henk h. f. smid, and théo pirard, emerging space powers: the new space programs of asia, the middle east, and south america (new york, 2010.: praxis), 313. 10 gilberto câmara, a pesquisa espacial no brasil: 50 anos de inpe (1961-2011). revista usp, n.89, março/maio 2011, 234243. 11 schwartzmann. um espaço para a ciência a formação da comunidade científica no brasil, (campinas: unicamp, 2015) history of meteorology 10 (2021) 5 to set up a structure on bases similar to those of other countries operating in the space area. aiming to provide the country with qualified labor for space research, the first graduate courses in the scope of the cnae were created in 1968, within the porvir project. through this project, short-term goals for training brazilian scientists were established to organize projects and guide new researchers. the initial proposal of porvir was to form phds and masters by sending young researchers mainly to the usa, france, and the uk.12 it is worth noting how the criteria of quality and distinction were used on a large scale to format these courses. the selection of candidates and recruitment of students at the most reputable universities in the country was based on indicators of excellence, with a view to forming a research elite in emerging areas. according to the analysis of moreira and velho on the creation and importance of these courses, ...candidates for these programs were chosen based on their ranking in universities, with those at the top third of their classes being selected. thus, the institute sought to ensure the level of excellence in academic and research work, since students were dedicated to the studies and work in the institute.13 the development of these graduate programs was important to train qualified personnel in the country, as well as to enrich the staff of inpe, given that several graduates were hired by the institute. in addition, in the early 1970s, young qualified teachers from other countries, such as india, were invited to work in the graduate and research courses at inpe to form a base of scientists at the institute. the brazilian space science elite was forged under this new arrangement, in terms of institutional function. following the american model, these graduate courses were created at research institutes, and not at universities, as had occurred in brazil until then. outside the purview of the brazilian ministry of education, these non-university research institutes were allowed to establish graduate education and began to have a regime for hiring and remunerating teachers outside the standards imposed by conventional academic research. space and atmospheric sciences was the first research area of the cnae in this period of implementation. the first years of space activities were devoted to space and atmospheric sciences at a time when the international scientific community intensified research in the areas of geophysics, aeronomy, and magnetism because of the lesser solar activity in the international years of the quiet sun (1964-1965). foreign researchers were interested in studying the equatorial belt and, as a result, the cnae was included in international research.14 in 1966, following this line of interest in studies that allowed international projection and exchange, the remote sensing (sere) and satellite meteorology (mesa) projects were created. these projects consisted in receiving images from remote sensing and meteorological satellites, mainly those developed by the usa, and involved both technological and scientific development activities in specific areas of application: installation of image reception stations and processing, treatment, analysis and interpretation of images. new graduates from 12 guilherme reis pereira. politica espacial brasileira e a trajetoria do inpe (1961-2007). 2008. 210 p. doctoral dissertation universidade estadual de campinas, instituto de geociencias, campinas, sp, http://www.repositorio.unicamp.br/handle/reposip/286896, (last accessed 17/05/2021). 13 moreira and velho. pós graduação no inpe: a aliança pesquisa-desenvolvimento e ensino. cadernos de pesquisa, 39(136), 2009, 243-268. 14 pereira, op. cit., 20. http://www.repositorio.unicamp.br/handle/reposip/286896 history of meteorology 10 (2021) 6 traditional fields of knowledge (physics, chemistry, geology, biology, mathematics, forestry, engineering, oceanography, etc.) were encouraged to work and specialize in the use of space technologies based on the possibilities created by graduate courses at inpe or at recognized foreign centers and universities. the emphasis given to the development of applications in the areas of remote sensing and meteorology was also important in this initial period of space research as a means of fundraising. meteorology, for instance, sought to meet the needs of the agricultural and transportation sectors, which made knowledge about this area strategic for the country's internal demands. formation of a meteorological science elite at inpe thus occurred from the activities of the mesa project, in a stimulating scientific environment, with resources, and a certain autonomy, despite the period of military governments (1964-1985) in brazil. some inpe researchers underwent preparation prior to enrolling in graduate programs at internationally recognized universities and research centers. when these researchers returned from their doctoral studies, they had already established important contacts and partnerships with scientific groups and leaders who would be fundamental to their participation in international research projects. in this context, some scientists at inpe, in the 1970s, following the evolution of new techniques and knowledge on weather and climate prediction using supercomputers, started to advocate the creation of a center similar to those already operating in developed countries. meteorological science elite forged in the cptec/inpe creation our case study was carried out at cptec, which was created within inpe – a scientific institution linked to the brazilian government, with the aim of structuring a department focused on operational meteorological, weather forecasting, and climate research activities, based on the trajectory of its main exponents. initially, we discuss the preconditions for the structuring of cptec based on the trajectory of its direct predecessors and main exponents. this analysis will enable us to identify the transformations that occurred within inpe in relation to the strategies negotiated by its agents in the formation of the new elite. when meteorological research started at inpe, in the late 1960s and early 1970s, there was only one meteorology undergraduate course in brazil, created in the 1960s at the federal university of rio de janeiro, and the national institute of meteorology (inmet), linked to the federal government, was the institution responsible for generating and disseminating weather forecasts. however, the forecasts were synoptic and, at the time, several meteorological centers in the world were making, or had already made, the transition to nwp models using supercomputers.15 although inmet is the most traditional national institution in meteorology, established in the early 20th century,16 the modern nwp techniques and methodologies were 15 kristine c. harper, "research from the boundary layer: civilian leadership, military funding and the development of numerical weather prediction (1946-55)." social studies of science 33, no. 5 (2003): 667-96. 16 christina helena barboza, “história da meteorologia no brasil (1887-1917),” in congresso brasileiro de meteorologia (2006), 1-6. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 7 implemented by scientists at inpe in a process that, in our view, simultaneously produced the reconversion of the meteorological science elites and, a few years later, the climate change elites. in the next sections, we resume the trajectories of the researchers who founded cptec, between 1986 and 1994, presenting their background and the differentiation process, as well as its implications in relation to the activities established at inpe previously. in the end, we expect to understand the tensions and disputes used by agents in the area to form the new national meteorological science elite. researchers and knowledge that enable cptec – scientific capital and reconversions it is interesting to observe the trajectory of some inpe researchers who joined the institution in the 1970s, in the area of meteorology, to verify the scientific capital relevant at the time of creation of cptec and the corresponding institutional and scientific reconversion and adaptation formulas. the analysis of this process is useful for the understanding of which were the main defining elements in the creation process of this new scientific elite organized within cptec. vadlamudi rao – scientific and formation capital in 1971, researcher vadlamudi brahmananda rao, a physicist with a doctorate in meteorology from the university of andhra in india, was hired by inpe. he had defended his doctoral dissertation in 1968, and had important participation as a researcher and adviser of master’s and doctoral students at the graduate studies program in meteorology (pgmet) at inpe. he retired from inpe in 1998, but continued working at pgmet. with over 110 articles published in leading international journals, such as journal of the atmospheric sciences, tellus, journal of climate, journal of geophysical research, geophysical research letters, monthly weather review, and agricultural and forest meteorology, rao is an important academic reference at inpe in the field of meteorology since the 1970s. for many years, he was in charge of the dynamic climatology and tropical meteorology disciplines, important themes in the curriculum of the graduate studies course in meteorology. the first master's defense under rao’s supervision dates back to 1974, with the thesis by yoshihiro yamazaki. in 1980, he supervised the doctoral dissertation of rubens leite vianello, one of the first brazilians to receive a doctorate in meteorology. between 1974 and 2011, vadlamudi rao supervised 26 master's theses and 19 doctoral dissertations, an extremely solid performance for a graduate studies adviser in an area of research still under consolidation in brazil. in 2009, rao became the first professor to be awarded the title of professor emeritus, both by inpe and pgmet, in gratitude for “his exceptional contribution to teaching, research, and human resources training at the institution,”17 that is, the merit established within the metric of conventional academic production. the recognition of this successful trajectory by the 17 inpe (2009). dr. rao recebe título de pesquisador emérito do inpe, http://www.inpe.br/noticias/noticia.php?cod_noticia=1906 http://www.inpe.br/noticias/noticia.php?cod_noticia=1906 history of meteorology 10 (2021) 8 institution indicates that the field of meteorology identified in this researcher a differentiated and well-adjusted contribution to the demands of the area in its consolidation project. an aspect stands out in rao’s résumé on the lattes platform.18 he mentions that he supervised, at pgmet/inpe, the first professionals (researchers and technologists) 19 who worked at cptec. “he supervised 17 doctors (including one of the first doctors in brazil, in 1980) and 26 masters in meteorology.”20 the main researchers who founded cptec obtained their degrees abroad, and most of the first researchers and technologists who started the activities in cptec in the 1990s, received their master's or doctoral degrees from pgmet at inpe, many of them under the supervision of rao. however, prof. rao never worked at cptec, despite all intellectual reference exercised as a supervisor of theses and dissertations. there is no institutional contribution to the organization of cptec and its subsequent guidelines in his history.21 the possession of academic recognition in the area of meteorology, the extensive production of scientific papers, and the supervision of masters and doctors did not guarantee rao participation and leadership in the conduct of inpe new scientific enterprise, although he defined himself as an indirect collaborator to cptec structuring through his alumni. mastery of pure scientific capital is not sufficient to determine the directions that agents will follow in the field. the new institutional trends and scientific arrangements on an international scale in the area of meteorological and climate sciences between the 1980s and 90s overwhelmed the preferences of researchers established in the field. cptec started operating in 1994, at the inpe unit located in the municipality of cachoeira paulista, state of sao paulo, to where inpe was planning to transfer all its facilities. before cptec, pgmet began its activities at inpe headquarters in são josé dos campos, also in the state of sao paulo, in the late 1970s, where the meteorology department was located. why was cptec moved to another inpe unit, more distant from pgmet, as well as from a good part of its body of researchers? it is known that the choice of the place where cptec would be installed was surrounded by controversies and conflicts, more related to the way this process occurred (many employees resisted change due to family and personal motivations) than to a non-adherence to a new model of knowledge production. however, the conflicts occurred during this transition were amplified by the discontinuity between the endogenous academic training and the recognition rules of pgmet on the one hand, and the structuring of a reference center in the field of meteorology in more operational terms on the other hand, precisely at a time of reconversion of the elites in the field of national meteorology, operated within inpe. it is worth remembering that the creation of cptec is associated with a worldwide paradigm shift in the area of meteorology and weather 18 cnpq plataforma lattes database on the career of brazilian scientists used to support research and development policies. vladamundi brahmananda rao’s cv. http://lattes.cnpq.br/7733149898220234. 19 as of the 1990s, the staff of civil servants for research and development (r&d) activities in the federal government relied on the careers of researchers and technologists, the latter focused on development activities. 20 cnpq plataforma lattes database. vladamundi brahmananda rao’s cv. http://lattes.cnpq.br/7733149898220234. 21 in part, this is explained by the fact that cptec was created as a center linked to the meteorological area of inpe. subsequently, the institutional status of cptec rose, incorporating the entire meteorological area of inpe. http://lattes.cnpq.br/7733149898220234 http://lattes.cnpq.br/7733149898220234 history of meteorology 10 (2021) 9 and climate forecasting, a process that began at the end of world war ii in the united states and sweden.22 the new agents of the field did not feel fully restricted in relation to their career perspectives then that were consolidated. they could reconstruct their trajectories in other ways, according to new sets of actions. from the 1980s, scientific careers began to face problems related to meeting the forms of recruitment and “realignment” of organizations, which became even more competitive and standardized. this process was linked a change in the guidelines of brazilian scientific policies, which began to associate more strongly the distribution of resources with certain quality criteria, themes, and research productivity. in this sense, scientists established in their professions and areas of knowledge are no longer able to lead the institutions and impose hierarchical and authoritative interests.23 this new dynamic is associated, to a large extent, with a gradual transfer of a good part of research funding from scientific institutions to development agencies.24 young researchers who graduated at inpe in the 1980s could ask themselves: should i remain faithful to an intellectual orientation of academic research and supervision of theses and dissertations, following the line drawn by researchers such as prof. vadlamudi rao, or seek other forms of positioning in the field of meteorological sciences? to continue in this perspective of analysis, from now on we will discuss another important exponent of inpe meteorological research at that time, prof. luiz gylvan meira filho. gylvan meira filho – institutional capital and autonomy in the field luiz gylvan meira filho majored in electronic engineering at ita in 1964 and got a doctorate in astro-geophysics from the university of colorado, usa, in 1970. at that time, he had contact at the same university with danish researcher aksel win-nielsen, who would become the first director of the european centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ecmwf), which started operating in late 1979.25 gylvan meira filho was one of the first inpe researchers, brought there in the early 1960s by fernando de mendonça, who would have identified that he presented scientific qualifications and the profile to take actions aimed at inpe establishment and academic and organizational strengthening. however, unlike vadlamudi rao, meira filho was not intellectually involved with pgmet and supervision of theses and dissertations. because his scientific and intellectual attributes were vastly recognized, upon returning from his doctoral studies, he was requested to lead the restructuring of meteorology at inpe, with a view to implementing the nwp model. in the early 1970s, he trained researchers in fluid mechanics for eight months with the aim of preparing them for their doctoral studies abroad. this initiative was coordinated with the pursuit of indian researchers, including rao, to work at inpe—a mission entrusted to meira filho by the director of inpe at the time.26 22 harper, op. cit. 23 joão batista oliveira, ilhas de competência – carreiras científicas no brasil (são paulo: brasiliense, 1985). 24 shozo motoyama, prelúdio para uma história: ciência e tecnologia no brasil (são paulo: edusp, 2004). 25 l.g. meira filho, interview by paulo escada, february 12, 2012, são paulo. 26 ibid. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 10 meira filho’s trajectory evidences that the institutional dynamic was extremely effective for his good positioning in the field of meteorology and climate sciences. in the following decades, he occupied relevant positions at inpe, as head and coordinator of the meteorology area between 1975 and 1978. he also held important scientific positions, both domestically and internationally, having actively participated in the establishment of the contours of climate discussion on a global scale as early as in the 1990s. between 1981 and 1984, before the establishment of cptec, meira filho served with the world meteorological organization (wmo) as regional director for the americas, in asunción, paraguay. in addition, he was in charge of the long-range weather forecasting research program in geneva, switzerland. decades later, this organization was essential to give cptec credibility as part of the global meteorological science elite. in 2010, the wmo certified cptec as a global producing center for long-range weather forecasting, a recognition that allowed cptec to be aligned with the main world centers for seasonal climate prediction.27 in 1985, when the brazilian ministry of science and technology (mct) was created, renato archer, its first minister, gave great impetus to the creation of new research centers in brazil, including cptec, a modern center for climate studies at inpe.28 during this period, inpe, which was previously linked to the national council for scientific and technological development (cnpq), became subordinate to the mct. new organizational models in the area of science and technology were brought to brazil at that time. with strong support from cnpq, the first innovation centers and technology parks were implemented in brazil, 29 which included the importation of international research practices, especially within the north american models. this process did not occur without conflicts, as university research rules had to adapt to these new formats.30 at this time, between 1986 and 1994, meira filho was one of the main creators of cptec in its formation phase, with institutional articulation between inpe, mct, inmet, and the ministry of agriculture to accomplish it. after leading the work that defined the structure of meteorology at inpe and cptec—the latter conceived as a part of the meteorological area of the former—and its relations with other meteorological institutions in the country, meira filho was appointed the first head of cptec.31 it is worth noting that, after this period of institutional structuring of cptec, meira filho also served as co-president of the working group i (scientific aspects) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) from 1990 to 1995. in 1992, meira filho retired from inpe, and assumed another extremely relevant position in 1994, becoming the first president of the brazilian space agency (aeb), where he remained until 2001. between 1996 and 2002, he was vice-president for ipcc, accumulating this position with the presidency of aeb. he actively participated in the kyoto protocol negotiations between 1996 and 1997, 27 agência fapesp, cptec é reconhecido como referência em previsões climáticas pela omm, são paulo, march 30, 2010. https://namidia.fapesp.br/cptec-e-reconhecido-como-referencia-em-previsoes-climaticas-pela-omm/36021. 28 miguel, et al. políticas da meteorologia no brasil: trajetórias e disputas na criação do cptec. revista brasileira de história da ciência, v. 9, n. 1, 2016, 36-50. 29 j.a medeiros, a.p. mattedi, m.m. de marchi, “polos tecnológicos e núcleos de inovação: lições do caso brasileiro,” revista de administração 25, no 4 (oct.-dec. 1990), 3-12. http://www.spell.org.br/documentos/ver/18742/polostecnologicos-e-nucleos-de-inovacao—licoes-do-caso-brasileiro/i/pt-br/. 30 andrade & silva filho. elites locais de ciência e tecnologia no brasil: o caso do parqtec de são carlos (sp). lua nova, são paulo, v. 94, 2015, 295-327. 31 meira, op. cit. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 11 especially in relation to articles 3 (carbon emission reduction targets for industrialized countries) and 12 (clean development mechanism). during the government of president fernando henrique cardoso, he also served as special adviser to the science and technology policy secretary of the mct, being responsible for important international negotiations within the principles of clean development mechanism at the rio+10 conference. in 2002, he was awarded the grand cross medal of the national order of scientific merit. since 2004, meira filho has been a visiting researcher at the institute for advanced studies at the university of sao paulo (usp) and, in 2012, started working in the area of climate change at vale institute of technology. as it can be observed, in this period meira filho accumulated considerable and diversified scientific capital, becoming a qualified representative of a community peripheral to the established climate sciences. his international transit and work in national agencies and bodies, recognized universities, and contacts with politics and research bureaucracy made him a spokesman for a still incipient community that sought to be better established in the globalized scenario of climate sciences. it should be highlighted that his participation in international research organizations did not occur through strictly university means established by academic exchange modalities, such as postdoctoral positions or occupation of special chairs. the importance of his institutional action in this context should also be considered. according to bourdieu,32 the formation of an autonomous scientific discipline marked by its own rules depends on a large investment of scientific capital in the formulation of guidelines and spaces for recognition, the so-called institutional capital. the presence of agents in different instances of deliberation, such as assessment commissions for research projects in development agencies, is also essential for the establishment of recognized and agreed theories and methods. during the 1980s and 90s, the presence of meira filho in prominent positions in different spaces and research institutions shows that, to a certain extent, at the time of cptec structuring, he already had a considerable institutional scientific capital in the field of meteorology. it is also noteworthy that only in the following decade, after a relevant institutional trajectory, did meira filho join usp, a renowned university that recognized his scientific attributes, which were constituted outside a conventional academic career and without recognition symbols of the public university. he availed himself more of the institutional scientific capital with which he built significant positions in the field of climate science. meira filho’s résumé on the lattes platform does not include publication of studies— although his articles and reports can be found in other databases and collections—or supervisions of graduate students, but his strong institutional links and awards stand out. probably, the absence of this accumulation of links and prominent positions with the wmo, mct, and inpe, in addition to the constant circulation in universities and meteorological and climate centers in developed countries, would hinder the establishment of a weather prediction center within the rules of the modern scientific reputational system. 32 bourdieu (2004), op. cit. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 12 according to jeorges & shinn, transversalist science operates in the exchange of experiences between universities, research centers, intergovernmental arenas, and companies.33 since the 1970s, strategies for assessing scientific research in central countries have considered the interaction flows between these differentiated arenas. the fact that meira filho circulated in the wmo, and later in the ipcc, enabled him— along with a few other inpe scientists with very similar scientific attributes and capital—to provide cptec with international expertise attuned to the parameters of the transversal spheres, beyond university research excellence measured by supervision of theses and dissertations, publication in specialized journals, and conventional internationalization practices (post-doctorates or visiting professor positions). meira filho’s trajectory expands, in inpe and in brazilian climate science, a scientific practice that is not only internationalized, but also transversal, and marked by interconnection between institutions of variable hierarchies and designs. intergovernmental panels and research organizations work through durability and specific organizational charts that force their leaders to occupy spaces in a flexible way and through responses to both academic and political demands. his trajectory represents a non-university trend in contrast to the traditional institution trend, such as the university of são paulo (usp). it is important to emphasize that the capital at stake and the distribution of rewards now follow different patterns in relation to the compositions of traditional forces of the brazilian academy. there is neither the previous dynamic of peer reviews, which was marked by accommodations and adjustments between specialties, nor the typical corporativism of exchanging favors between the research community and the managers of the state bureaucracy. as it has mentioned before, there has been an important transition during the 1980's related to the national scientific and technology policy that would change all the relationships among researchers, academia and scientific institutions. the scientific field would become more ruled by specific norms managed by scientific fostering agencies that adopted criteria based on international models of financing and research assessment. the scientific institution and the academic hierarchy have become less influential than before to manage the scientific and research fields. scientists at inpe, in general, were already acting according to the internationalized science model when this transition began in the brazilian research institutions and universities, which would provide one of the main bases for the reconversion of scientific elites. in the area of meteorology, this process was amplified when the scientists at inpe criticized, in the late 1970s, the use of statistical methodologies for climate predictions and artificial rain nucleation techniques for the northeast region of the country, both promoted by the institute of aeronautics and space (iae), linked to the cta—a military institution. the controversy reverberated in the media and the national congress at different times in the early 1980s.34 in these episodes, the scientists at inpe emphasized the need to implement 33 bernward joerges, and terry shinn, instrumentation between science, state and industry (dordrecht: kluwer, 2001). 34 “meteorologista acha inviável a mudança do clima,” o globo, february 28, 1982; “procura-se uma explicação. os cientistas não chegam a um acordo,”revista isto é, august 10, 1983, 34-35; “a antártida pode estar influindo na seca do ne,” o estado de s.paulo, october 9, 1983; “atuação do cta no nordeste é refutada e as chuvas artificiais são negadas pelo inpe,” jornal valeparaibano, january 14, 1984, 3; “programa de chuvas provoca debate entre cientistas,” jornal do brasil, february 19, 1984; brasil, anais do senado, 154ª a 167ª, sessões, vol. 7, book 12, (brasília: congresso nacional, history of meteorology 10 (2021) 13 methodologies already used in the main meteorological centers in developed countries, which used modeling and approaches that associated correlations between distant meteorological events, such as the occurrence of anomaly patterns of surface temperature in the eastern tropical pacific (which would be known as el niño) and of drought in the semi-arid region of northern brazil. they also advocated the creation of a modern numerical weather and climate forecasting center in the country.35 according to whitley, the reputational system started in the 1970s and 80s required that modern scientific leadership have the flexible ability to adjust to changes in political circumstances and in the crossing of data and materials between different academic areas.36 the interdisciplinary dynamic and the capacity to respond rapidly to demands established by different social agents make these scientific elites manage flows of open and uncertain themes that go far beyond the safety of hierarchical and centralizing academic spaces. compared to the traditional university-based science, the growth of different forms of financing and contracting made available by the increasing presence of multilateral agencies in climate research forced the academic hierarchies to operate according to the new rules brought by the international reputational system operated by agencies such as the wmo, ipcc, and the international research institute for climate and society (iri) among others. in this sense, as previously highlighted, the trajectory of science developed within inpe meteorology department was already being shaped and generated in this new model of scientific practice. the importance meira filho’s contribution to the formation of the new meteorological science elite based at cptec is measured not only by the accumulation of his institutional scientific capital, but also by the mobility and differentiation of transversal attributes spread in the different spaces he circulated. in addition to a conventional academic internationalization, his presence in non-academic scientific organizations has assisted with attuning the demands of inpe emerging groups to the new parameters of action in the climate area. other young researchers with a doctorate in meteorology from inpe also began to circulate in recognized foreign research centers and institutions. the individual participation of these inpe researchers was crucial to form and intensify the scientific capital of inpe meteorology department within the broader scientific field of brazilian meteorology. it is worth highlighting the links and scientific affiliations that gylvan meira filho established throughout his career, which will link him, in some way, to exponents of international meteorology. his proximity to researcher joseph smagorinsky was public, with whom he shared, in the early 1980s, the idealization of a nwp center for latin america. in the 1940s, smagorinsky participated in the experiment that would make nwp operational, having worked at princeton under the leadership of jule charney in the processing of the first forecast using eniac, the supercomputer under development and testing at the time.37 in the 1960s, smagorinsky was one of the precursors to the first climate model, known as the general circulation model (gcm), and of ideas about climate change. he chaired the geophysical fluid september 16-30, 1983), 4276. http://www.senado.gov.br/publicacoes/anais/pdf/anais_republica/1983/1983%20livro%2012.pdf. 35 neiva, e. "situação da previsão do tempo no brasil – relatório – iii congresso brasileiro de meteorologia,” boletim informativo, sociedade brasileira de meteorologia (belo horizonte) 9, no. 3(1985), 47-59. 36 richard whitley, the intellectual and social organization of the sciences (new york: oxford up, 2009). 37 f. shuman, “history of numerical weather prediction at the national meteorological center,” weather and forecasting 4, (september 1989), 286-296. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 14 dynamics laboratory (gdfl) at the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa) for several years. the trajectory of another inpe researcher, antonio divino moura, is largely similar to that of meira filho and assists with corroborating the impressions about the reconversion carried out by these agents who incorporated this transversal dynamic in the practice of research in the climate area. divino moura completed his doctorate at mit, worked at pgmet, circulated in prominent international agencies such as the wmo and noaa, was the first director of the international research institute for climate and society (iri), and received international awards for his scientific excellence. he was president of the brazilian society of meteorology (sbmet) and head of inpe meteorology department, in a time when cptec was only a department of this larger area. in the next section we discuss how the meira filho’s scientific actions favored and enabled the formation of a new reputational group within inpe, and how the new generations of climate scientists responded to these new activity contours in the area. a generational climate project according to bourdieu,38 within the french university system, the search for homology with the dominant agents of the field and respect for the consecrated symbols of prestige constitute the necessary means for young people to share the intellectual and institutional heritage of the academy. completion of a doctorate under the supervision of a prestigious professor, publication in recognized journals, and participation in academic events are requirements for a safe trajectory. hierarchical and concentrated capital systems require obedience to the capital credits established by the dominant pole at the risk of curtailment of future career opportunities. however, what occurs when the scientific field is changing? is it necessary to remain true to these requirements in order to obtain secure credits, or is it necessary to carry out a reconversion of objects and positioning strategies in the field? resuming the discussion on scientific careers and influences, it is worth pointing out how oliveira perceives the dilemmas of the choices made by technicians and scientists in brazilian research centers in the 1980s. according to oliveira, there was an increasing imposition of organizational demands on the daily practice of technicians and scientists who worked in this professional field. isolated and self-sufficient scientists were no longer on the main stage of the contemporary scientific world. once closed within the limits of the organizations, scientists had to try to ensure, within them, the conditions they considered essential to intellectual and scientific work. such conditions (...) referred fundamentally to the social and organizational structures where the nature of the work to be carried out was defined, where the competence of the different members to conduct it was established, and where the progress made was assessed.39 bringing this discussion to the formation of cptec, it was necessary to meet the organization's expectation in order to seek an adaptation to the new contours of climate research 38 bourdieu. homo academicus. (florianópolis: ed. ufsc, 2011). 39 oliveira, op. cit., 163. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 15 in transformation. the trajectory model of the main leaders who composed the scene at inpe in the 1980s presents the manifestation of meira filho as the most seductive, in tune with the world-renowned centers and with easy transit in the brazilian government spheres. it is not possible to understand the formation of the group of researchers at cptec without considering the type of capital that made it institutionally viable and its forms of distribution. the strategies adopted by the young scientists at inpe at that time, the behavior of its leaders, and the context of the scientific institutions of the 1980s and 90s are fundamental to understanding scientific investments. the different trajectories followed by researchers rao and meira filho provide elements to understand the directions that climate research was taking in that period in brazil. the types of direct and indirect collaboration of these agents to cptec structuring point to the symbolic divergences and disputes that have occurred in the brazilian climate field. inpe is a stage for confrontation between pure scientific capital, which is organized around academic research, and institutional capital, which circulates between international organizations of different modalities. the new generations of researchers in the field of meteorology at inpe sought an intellectual and institutional reconversion aiming to stand out in the field and thereby establish an independent dialogue with the international climatic organizations that were formed since the 1960s. next, we discuss the recruitment methods established by inpe for the selection of researchers focused on the leadership of activities at cptec and the implications for reconfiguration of the field of meteorology. scientific recruitment and concentration of symbolic capital the process of recruitment and selection is essential for the formation of a dominant group in any area. it is not possible to understand the constitution of a business organization, a political party, or the formation of a high bureaucratic body without considering the trajectory and circulation of its prominent members. at some point in the trajectory of an agent, belonging to a grand corps defines their potential for future growth. in the words of saint martin, the socialization and training of members of future elites depend closely on educational institutions (elite schools, private or public, large high schools, grandes écoles, etc.) that favor the structuring of groups, the constitution of networks, and the learning of methods to manage relations and exercise of authority. research on the grandes écoles scientific, administrative, or of management ... in the late 1960s and early 1970s, enabled the explanation and understanding of how social boundaries are established between students of grandes écoles and those of universities, as well as between students of different schools, more or less important, farther or closer to the intellectual or economic pole, and these borders have an effect on their lives as a whole.40 specifically within the scientific field, graduating from a recognized institution and incorporating its reference values and symbols is essential for integration with the high levels of qualification. the analytical perspective centered on the study of preparatory grandes ecóles presents problems and controversies, but even so it has been important to understand the symbols of 40 saint martin (2008), op. cit., 52. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 16 distinction used by certain groups of knowledge to recruit their staff. from the perspective of bourdieu and saint-martin, the concentration of intellectual capital in the same institution generates a set of premises and expectations that are exported to the set of subsidiary spaces forming new coalitions of ideas and perspectives. the current model of relations in the scientific field, established internationally, has been redefining the modalities of circulation of traditional knowledge and methods. the intersection between areas of education, departmental activity, research groups, and funding sources shows that the contemporary scientific scenario creates a complex network of areas and subareas of specialization in which conventional boundaries cannot explain how hegemonic groups are articulated and reproduced. in its turn, the filters established by the brazilian research centers, to a large extent, introduced selection mechanisms that favored a previous acceptance by renowned institutions. in the 1980s, during the structuring of cptec, the members of its staff were recruited based on their passage by prestigious academic institutions, publication in recognized journals, and participation in relevant scientific associations in the area of meteorology, such as sbmet. the agents who formed the leadership of cptec in its initial moments were not necessarily individuals with newly obtained doctorates who sought initial positions in their research career, subjected to the impositions of string-pullers and field dominators. on the contrary, the effort to bring scientific leaders to cptec conducted by inpe favored in part researchers who were already established in important institutions and had come from renowned research centers and universities. this is the case of researchers with doctorates completed at prestigious institutions in the usa who, in the passage from the 1980s to the 1990s, had already accumulated relevant scientific positions, such as pedro leite da silva dias, eugenio neiva, carlos afonso nobre, and maria assunção da silva dias. one of the persons involved with the first initiatives for the creation of an nwp center was marco antonio maringolo lemes, who joined inpe in 1968. he did not complete a doctorate, which prevented him from occupying a more visible institutional position for cptec establishment; however, he was the first inpe researcher to develop studies, reports, and articles on nwp.41 meira filho was the first head of cptec (1987-8), followed by pedro dias (1988-90), from usp; eugenio neiva (1990-1), from the brazilian navy; carlos nobre (1992-2003), from inpe; and maria assunção dias (2003-9), from usp. in 1995, shortly after the institutional creation of cptec, lemes retired from inpe, and later joined the federal university of alagoas (ufal). analysis of the trajectories of the other researchers mentioned shows how the implementation of cptec followed a strict and judicious formula for optimizing scientific opportunities through inpe. all heads of cptec, linked to traditional scientific institutions, had trajectories of training and research abroad. 41 miguel, et al., 2016, op. cit.; m.a.m. lemes, relatório preliminar sobre a implantação de previsão numérica do tempo no brasil (são josé dos campos: inpe (cnpq), 1973). history of meteorology 10 (2021) 17 pedro dias and maria assunção dias completed their doctorates at the university of colorado (usa), when they already had a strong connection with usp as teachers at the institute of astronomy, geophysics and atmospheric sciences (iag-usp) since the 1970s. their doctorates abroad were conditioned to their return to assist with implementing the graduate studies program in meteorology at iag/usp (dias, 2012).42 carlos nobre graduated from ita, completed his doctorate at mit in 1983, worked at the national amazon research institute (inpa) before joining inpe, and returned to mit to do a postdoctoral research in the late 1980s. eugenio neiva graduated in naval sciences at the brazilian navy and received a new bachelor's degree, followed by a master's degree and a doctorate in meteorology at an institution of the united states navy in monterey. antonio divino moura, who was coordinator of inpe meteorology department in the early 1990s and deeply involved in the creation of cptec, also completed his doctorate at mit, and a postdoctorate under the supervision of prof. j. shukla at the goddard laboratory for atmospheric sciences at the national aeronautics and space administration (nasa) in 1980. he was also director general of inmet in the mid-1980s. until 1994, when cptec was implemented, these scientists had already accumulated supervisions of theses and dissertations in graduate studies programs in the area of meteorology, in addition to postdoctoral studies at prestigious north american universities and research centers. inpe meteorology department, the research center for environmental modeling and application (cema), had already implemented in 1982 a laboratory that would be attended by both master's and doctoral researchers, where the first modeling research experiments were developed at inpe. when these researchers converged to structure cptec at that moment, they were willing to invest in their careers using strategies that would involve new scientific approaches in the field of meteorology with operational perspectives, adding even more scientific capital to their previous trajectories. these researchers have also always been associated with international projects to which inpe was invited to collaborate in the climate area, such as the anglo-brazilian climate observations study (abracos) and the tropical ocean and global atmosphere project (toga) between 1985 and 1994, whose results represented a new era for climate predictions and the large-scale biosphere-atmosphere experiment in amazonia (lba). in addition, in terms of international insertion, the aforementioned researchers acted in the structuring and leadership of cptec, while participating in the main international scientific organizations in the area of meteorology, namely, wmo, ipcc, noaa, iri, ecmwf, and the national center for atmospheric research (ncar) among others through agreements, occupying positions in management, as visiting professors, and in councils and coordination of the writing of reports. a standard of scientific excellence, combined with a non-university insertion in renowned research centers in the global and transversal scope, legitimized the groups of agents that assumed qualified positions in the brazilian climate science. they were, therefore, relatively young members of the elite of researchers in the field of meteorology who circulated 42 pedro leite dias, interview by paulo escada, april 2, 2012, são paulo. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 18 outside the borders of inpe and its institutions, widening the margins of reputational positioning. in the following decade, three of them (pedro leite, maria assunção leite, and carlos nobre) became members of the brazilian academy of sciences (abc), reaching a prominent position in the national scientific field. the political field also recognized the excellence of this small group, through the awarding of medals of honor from the brazilian state, such as the order of scientific merit, granted by the ministry of science and technology (mct). according to bourdieu, every scientific field tends to give more capital to those more familiar with its distribution procedures and formulas. the best positioned scientists benefit from the credits made available by the field in their favor, increasing the benefits received despite of a general aspect of collective gains. symbolic capital attracts symbolic capital: the scientific field gives credit to those who already have it; the best known are those that most benefit (or benefit themselves) from the symbolic gains apparently distributed equally among the signatories, in the case of multiple authorship or multiple discoveries by people of unequal fame – even when the best known do not occupy the foreground, which gives them an even greater benefit, that is, to seem disinterested from the point of view of the norms of the field.43 the rise of cptec in the scenario of brazilian meteorological and climate sciences occurred through a specific recruitment system, rewarding in part researchers who combined international academic trajectories, especially in north america, with a strong insertion in the set of institutions that comprised the modern framework of computational and informational models of weather and climate forecasting. good positioning in the academic field, and movement in the prominent university centers, are necessary components, but insufficient for a more noticicable recognition in the climate sector, because the reputation system triggered by these agents values scientific excellence, training, and experience in the modern meteorological institutions that form the new global climate elite. reconversion and adjustment of competences formation of a scientific elite within a given field of knowledge is a process that involves capital redistribution, consecration of new symbols of knowledge and power, changes in the criteria for scientific certification, and reconversion of academic investments.44 when new agents join a field of knowledge, they open space for new alliances and revision of strategies, aiming to change the current scientific excellence parameters and the competition rules. to maintain their positions or accumulate more scientific capital, agents often need to redirect their strategies within the field. reconversions of agents frequently occur in the scientific field. in the field of meteorological sciences in brazil, two reconversion moments are worth highlighting in the past decades: in the nwp implementation process, which culminated 43 bourdieu, 2004, op. cit., 81. 44 terry shinn, “formes de division du travail scientifique et convergence intelectuelle,” revue française de sociologie 41, no. 03(2000), 447-473. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 19 in the creation of cptec, between the 1980s and 90s, and in the adherence of researchers from meteorological sciences to the theme of climate change, a process that occurred between the 1990s and 2000s. changes in strategy occur especially when a given discipline and its subfields face turbulence and demands for updating, as it was the case with climate sciences in the 1980s and 90s, when this demand became more urgent. the modeling techniques and informational frameworks of weather forecasting began to occupy a central position in meteorological research techniques in the 1980s, demanding a more incisive adaptation effort from researchers in the area. conventional academic training and the analogical knowledge available could lead young researchers to an impermeable labor market. fidelity to academic training and to the type of knowledge transmitted by advisers of theses and dissertations could no longer be the exclusive definer of future trajectories. therefore, there was need to reconvert scientific competences and practices in order to keep up with the changes that inpe had been undergoing, initially, with the experiences of cema and, later, strongly substantiated by the creation of cptec. the structuring of cptec implied the promise of other professional rewards that younger researchers began to crave for. an important characteristic of the younger researchers who entered a less centralized and hierarchical field was the dynamic of identifying available opportunities and safe investment in promising trajectories. agents with smaller scientific capital are the most predisposed to operate reconversions that, presumably, at least will produce a repositioning of their qualified insertion possibilities; however, reconversion can also be carried out by those who already have considerable scientific capital and are favorably positioned in their scientific field. this could be observed in the 1990s, when researchers at cptec with works focused on deforestation and impacts on climatic and biogeochemical cycles in the amazon rainforest, and who occupied a privileged position in the institutional hierarchy and scientific field got involved in research associated with climate change. nevertheless, not all of the researchers who collaborated to the rise of cptec in the brazilian climate community held the same symbols of scientific recognition as those in the group previously mentioned. many of them completed a master's or doctoral degree in meteorology at inpe and remained identified with that institution. inpe researchers, such as josé paulo bonatti, sergio henrique franchitto, and yoshihiro yamazaki, who worked at cema, and prakki satyamurti, marley moscatti, and magda abreu participated prominently in the acquisition of material and signing of agreements and contacts with international meteorological centers during the structuring period of cptec.45 it should be emphasized that, during this period, some of these researchers already had a certain connection with prestigious scientists and meteorological centers abroad, with representative participation of inpe in meetings at meteorological organizations of excellence. however, the scientific capital available to these agents was restricted and fundamentally defined by the professional and scientific conditions provided by inpe, which included the department of meteorology and pgmet. better positioning in the field of meteorological and 45 miguel, et al., 2016, op. cit. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 20 climate sciences would only occur after cptec was in place in 1994, when some of these agents began to occupy positions in other brazilian centers and universities as researchers or teachers. analysis of the trajectory of these five researchers reveal that:  in 1994, josé paulo bonatti completed a postdoctoral degree at the center for ocean-landatmosphere studies (cola) in the usa, with the mission of bringing and adapting the model of global atmospheric circulation of that center to be run operationally at cptec.  in 1994, sérgio franchitto started collaborating with the graduate studies program in geography at the sao paulo state university (unesp), teaching classes on geographic simulation, but maintaining his link with inpe.  in 1996, magda abreu became a professor in the department of geography at the federal university of minas gerais (ufmg), teaching in the area of climatology.  in 1996, marley moscati completed her doctorate, and in the following year became a researcher at inpe; in the following decade she became a member of the board of directors of sbmet.  in 1998, yoshihiro yamazaki became a professor in the meteorology department at the federal university of pelotas (ufpel).  in 2001, prakki satyamurty became the president of sbmet and later worked as a professor at the state university of amazonas (uea). the training and experience in meteorology that these researchers gathered at inpe quite possibly symbolically accredited them to occupy these positions in national and international universities in this area, spreading the expertise obtained at inpe to other teaching and research centers, and forming a model of scientific practice. these researchers have another aspect in common: except for magda abreu, all of them completed their graduate studies at inpe. this shows that inpe already had a mature group of researchers with endogenous training in order to be able to build new forms of insertion in the meteorological agenda, not completely depending on professionals with doctorates obtained abroad or linked to other universities. another aspect that strongly marks this group of professionals, graduated at pgmet, is the fact that they were all supervised by the same professor, vadlamudi rao, between 1974 and 1996. it is worth highlighting how these researchers were present in the field in relation to their research areas of interest. an inpe catalog of 1993 brings a list of professors who worked in graduate studies programs in meteorology and their respective areas of interest. researchers josé paulo bonatti, sergio henrique franchitto, yoshihiro yamazaki and magda abreu had numerical modeling as their research area of interest, a specialty that was not of interest to vadlamudi rao.46 this mismatch between the areas of interest of the adviser and of the young doctors indicates the occurrence of a reconversion of research agendas, very strongly induced by the institutional environment, which starts to invest in modeling also a methodological requirement for research and development related to weather and climate forecasting. 46 instituto nacional de pesquisas espaciais, a meteorologia no inpe (são josé dos campos, 1993). history of meteorology 10 (2021) 21 as previously underscored, the influence of rao in the training of the aforementioned researchers is extremely important, which qualifies him as an indirect collaborator for the consolidation of cptec. in addition to his supervision,. rao also published more than one article co-authored with each of his graduate students in prestigious international journals, which undoubtedly strengthened their academic curricula. the researcher magda abreu, in her turn, did not produce articles co-authored with rao, but with her supervisor at the american university where she completed her doctorate, peter r. bannon, following the logic of that during or finishing the doctoral degree, researchers use to publish articles co-authored with their supervisors. the involvement of some of these researchers with missions and participation in research and routines at cptec shows that the figure of the graduate studies adviser as a supporter that holds the essential credits for professional development was not an exclusive prerogative. the career trajectory of the young phds and partners of rao points to a diversity of influences exerted by the field on its entrants. the supervision and publication in co-authorship on the one hand, and the investment and use of cptec computational infrastructure on the other hand, comprised a set of stimuli and opportunities that needed to be balanced. these young graduates trained at inpe invested their time and initial scientific capital in an institutional project with characteristics qualitatively different from the directions then in force in academic meteorological research. it is also interesting to note the awards and honors received by this group of researchers in their trajectories:  in 1996, josé paulo bonatti received a distinguished service award from inpe.  in 2008, sérgio franchitto had an award-winning work at the sbmet meeting and an article featured in the journal nature. in 2010 and 2015, he received awards for services rendered to inpe.  in 2004, magda abreu received a cptec/inpe award for rendered services.  in 2008, marley moscati received an award from sbmet for her participation in its board of directors.  in 1998, prakki satyamurty received an sbmet award for best published paper. in 2002 and 2003, he received distinguished service awards from inpe and obtained another award from sbmet in 2018.  yoshihiro yamazaki has received no awards. as it can be observed, this group of researchers with a more endogenous background has received more outstanding recognition mainly from national organizations: inpe and sbmet. unlike the more internationalized group linked to more prestigious universities, such as usp, the researchers trained in pgmet at inpe have been awarded symbols more restricted in terms of importance in the field of climate science. according to bourdieu,47 the distribution of awards and honors is an essential moment in which the scientific field makes its preferences public in terms of practices and institutions that receive the magic of consecration. this means that members linked to inpe receive credits 47 bourdieu (2004), op. cit. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 22 and recognition from the meteorological field, but with limitations. none of them was ready to receive a more distinctive honor such as, for instance, access to the abc. in this sense, it is not possible to follow the trajectory of these researchers without noticing the formation of hierarchies within this field. graduating in meteorology from pgmet/inpe with the prestigious stamp of cptec represented an important addition of scientific capital for these agents that entered the field of meteorology and climate; however, the distribution of prestige beyond the borders of inpe represented a structural limitation for the accumulation of subsequent scientific capital for these local entrants. the leadership most strongly present between the 1980s and 90s was exercised by gylvan meira filho, who had not strongly aligned with pgmet, or to journals in the area, and did not have such close contacts with strictly academic research institutions. or the leadership exercised by carlos afonso nobre, in his trajectory in ita, inpa and mit, who followed a conventional academic career and, in addition, held leadership and coordination positions at cptec and as secretary at the ministry of science, technology and innovation (mcti), and presented a strong interface with institutions such as wmo and ipcc, as well as being a coordinator of major international projects and scientific organizations such as the lba, executive secretary of the brazilian network for research on global climate change, head of the scientific committee of the international geosphere biosphere programme, high scientific adviser of the united nation’s panel on global sustainability, and one of the 26 members of the united nation’s secretary-general's scientific advisory board (unsab). carlos nobre follows the model of a new type of climate scientist, operating a second reconversion, considering that he also emerges as scientific leadership in the field of climate change, and increasingly attuned to the intergovernmental agenda and the parameters of assessment of hegemonic organizations in the field on a national and global scale. he has also received several national and international awards, such as the 2007 nobel peace prize, along with other members of the ipcc. it can be stated that participation in cptec provides its members with a possibility of ascension within the field of climate science, but in such a way that the differentiation symbols established by the dominant players of the field overwhelm all others and define the general redistribution of scientific capital. final considerations it seems clear, throughout this analysis, that cptec not only represented an institutional investment to drive meteorological and climate research, but also to form prestigious groups responsible for the supply and redistribution of scientific capital. the transformations undergone by climate research in brazil between the 1970s and 90s,48 and on a global scale between 1990 and 2000, reconfigured the possibilities for the rise and consolidation of centers focused on climate, weather forecasting, and climate change. conventional university research activities, marked by the production of theses and dissertations, supervision and co-authorship of articles in journals, and receiving of prizes, had to be adjusted to the gain in importance of the role played by intergovernmental agencies in the 48 the first world climate conference organized by the wmo and held in geneva, switzerland, in 1979, is considered the first major international meeting that discussed global warming and climate change. history of meteorology 10 (2021) 23 scientific field, which started influencing the international decision-making and recognition spheres. however, this initiative did not occur without the formation of new tensions and hierarchies. the forms of accreditation and transmission of prestige operated formulas of exclusion and symbolic distance in the face of the new standards of excellence established by the climate field. the researchers already established and certified by this new order of transversal research conducted and selected, by means of their different signs, the operational parameters for forming routines, choosing equipment, and conducting daily analyses. inpe was responsible for a large part of the institutional pioneering spirit that organized the technical and political systems for the operationalization of this new phase of meteorological research, defining leaderships, recognizing scientific practices, providing possibilities for ascension and replacement in the academic system in order to form new elites in the climate field, and constricting differentiated criteria. however, it is also clear that cptec, as a space for a rising scientific elite, is subordinated to the more general principles of international recognition in the field of meteorology. microsoft word 9 ) henry.docx history of meteorology 8 (2017) 179 assembling the weather: expertise, authority and the negotiation of trans-tasman aviation forecasts matthew henry m.g.henry@massey.ac.nz massey university abstract the tyranny of distance has always figured significantly in accounts of new zealand’s place in the world. in these accounts the emergence of new technologies: steam ships, telegraph cables, refrigeration, satellite connections, and aircraft have all transformed new zealand’s geographies of connection. aviation in particular has been celebrated the technology par excellence in drawing new zealand closer to the rest of the world. yet these celebratory tales of technological success gloss over the practical work of technoscientific assemblage that has made possible new, and enduring forms of connection. this paper focuses on the assemblage of aviation routes across the tasman sea between new zealand and australia in the late 1930s. central to the making of this airspace was the concomitant development of specific meteorological networks that would transform the tasman into a forecastable weatherspace. the paper identifies the layers of sociotechnical practice involved in assembling an oceanic weatherspace between national jurisdictions and observational networks. within this new assemblage the paper focuses on the developing relationship between meteorologists and pilots, and argues that emerging tensions between these actors centred on the negotiation of the novel relationships of expertise and authority that had developed within the forecasting assemblage supporting trans-tasman aviation. introduction on the 2nd may 1940 the tasman airways limited (teal) flying boat aotearoa completed a roundtrip between auckland and sydney. carrying mail and passengers the aotearoa’s flight inaugurated a regular trans-tasman air service, and ended over a decade of survey flights, political discussion, and commercial negotiation. the sydney morning herald’s (smh) aviation correspondent, whose by-line proudly announced the correspondent’s presence on the return history of meteorology 8 (2017) 180 flight to auckland, heaped praise on the flying boat facilities at auckland’s mechanics bay. in particular he praised the meteorological organisation supporting the flights observing that, “i watched aviation and meteorological experts prepare daily maps of tasman weather developments and another covering a huge surface of the globe bounded by latitudes 25 degrees north and 50 degrees south and longitude 100 degrees east and 130 degrees west.”1 the weather maps being plotted in the new zealand meteorological service’s (nzms) auckland aviation weather office (aawo) were being pieced together from wireless reports of weather observations being made by new zealand, australian, british and pan american airways meteorological stations dotted throughout the australia, new zealand and the pacific. assembled together these observations, he marvelled, had just enabled the aawo meteorologists to track and calculate the risk of the storm that the aotearoa had flown through on its auckland flight for over a week prior to the flight. these reports were not only coming from terrestrial weather stations. in a subsequent newspaper article the smh’s correspondant made special mention of the work of a dedicated meteorologist who was cris-crossing the tasman sea on the union steam ship company (ussco) awatea making regular reports on upper atmosphere conditions at sea.2 despite the efforts of this panoply of workers, the smh nonetheless warned that much still needed to be done to perfect the trans-tasman forecasts that would make regular, safe trans-tasman crossings by the aotearoa and its sister ship the awarua a reality. 1 aviation correspondent, ‘cooperation at auckland’, (4 may 1940), sydney morning herald: 16. 2 aviation correspondent, ‘flight over gale’, (7 may 1940), sydney morning herald: 9. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 181 fig. 1. aotearoa survey flight across new zealand, 1938. upper left: coffee while travelling at 160 miles an hour and thousands of feet above sea-level-mr. b. a. blythe takes refreshments while at the controls. upper right: group-captain t. m. wilkes, mr. a. hardcastle, mr. e. h. r. green and mr. l. mangham view the landscape. lower: captain j. w. burgess (left) and mr. c. f. elder (right), first officer, at the controls, with mr. blythe. source: sir george grey special collections, auckland libraries, awns-19380106-42-2 the inauguration of a regular, commercial aviation route across the tasman sea was one of a series of changes that profoundly changed new zealand’s and australia’s geographies of connection with themselves and the rest of the world. aviation in particular was celebrated as the technology par excellence in drawing both countries closer to the rest of the world.3 alongside technologies such as the stream ship, the telegraph and refrigeration, the advent of trans-oceanic aviation after world war one chipped away at the absolute tyranny of distance that defined the australasian world’s political, cultural and economic relationships to the rest of the globe. the 3 ross ewing and ross macpherson, the history of new zealand aviation, (heinemann, 1986); maurice mcgreal, a history of civil aviation in new zealand (david bateman, 2003). for a wider cultural history of aviation see: robert wohl, a passion for wings: aviation and the western imagination, 1908-1918, (yale university press, 1995); robert wohl, the spectacle of flight: aviation and the western imagination, 1920-1950, (yale university press, 2005). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 182 effect of these changing geographies was profound as the transformative energies of colonial societies were framed, and amplified, by the development of intricate links to global networks of intellectual and material commerce.4 the new networks that transformed these geographies were intimately technopolitical, blending together technological expertise with a keen sensitivity for the geopolitical and geoeconomic power of global connections.5 this paper takes the close entanglement that developed between aviation and meteorology in this context and focuses on the emerging relationship between two actors: pilots and meteorologists. our tendency when thinking about the impact of new globalising technologies has been to focus on their impacts on wider societies and to pass over the work of the building and maintenance of the infrastructures whose ubiquity, accessibility, reliability and transparency make globalising connections possible.6 however, as edwards et al argue the work of making infrastructures involves the simultaneous orchestration of technical systems, organisational practices and social norms; a point extended by starosielski who argues that the fashioning of infrastructural networks leads to the concomitant development of new professional relationships amongst those making emergent networks function.7 in this context the complexity of meteorology’s emergent professional cultures and the tensions involved in the stabilisation of the discipline’s intersecting ontological and epistemological claims to expertise and credibility have been widely documented.8 however, what has been largely missing from debates about the development of meteorology as a globalised, ‘infrastructural science’ has been the development of situated understandings of how meteorologists engaged with other professional groups, such as pilots, with their own emergent and separate claims to expertise and authority, in order to act in the world. 9 in one of the few studies addressing the specific relationship between meteorologists and pilots, turner argues that this relationship was very important to the establishment of meteorology as a crucial support for aviation. this paper draws attention to the negotiation of forecasting authority between meteorologists and pilots as an important, but largely ignored, body of organisational innovation and practice in enabling the development of 4 philippa mein smith, peter hempenstall and shaun goldfinch (eds.), remaking the tasman world. (canterbury university press, 2008); eric pawson and tom brooking (eds), making a new land: environmental histories of new zealand, new edition, (oxford university press, 2013). 5 robert boyce, ‘imperial dreams and national realities: britain, canada and the struggle for a pacific telegraph cable, 1879-1902’, the english historical review, 115 (2000): 39-70; david butler, ‘technogeopolitics and the struggle for control of world air routes, 1910-1928’, political geography, 20 (2001): 635-658; peter hugill, global communications since 1844: geopolitics and technology, (the johns hopkins university press, 1999); alasdair pinkerton and klaus dodds, ‘radio geopolitics: broadcasting, listening and the struggle for acoustic spaces’, progress in human geography, 33 (2009): 10-27; gordon pirie, air empire: british imperial aviation, 1919-39, manchester university press (2009). 6 paul edwards, steven jackson, geoffrey bowker and cory knobel, understanding infrastructure: dynamics, tensions, and design: 'report of a workshop on 'history & theory of infrastructure: lessons for new scientific cyberinfrastructures', (university of michigan, 2007). 7 nicole starosielski, the undersea network, (duke university press, 2015). 8 matthew henry, 'inspired divination': mapping the boundaries of meteorological credibility in new zealand, 19201939’, journal of historical geography, 50 (2015): 66-75. 9 see: roger turner, weathering heights: the emergence of aeronautical meteorology as an infrastructural science, (phd thesis), (university of pennsylvania, 2010). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 183 regular trans-tasman flights between auckland in new zealand and sydney in australia. in looking at the development of this specific relationship in this context of this route making the paper both extends our understanding of the multiple strands of situated technical, organisational and social work required to make meteorology an embedded infrastructural science, and of the ways in which its development as infrastructural science required meteorological knowledge and practices to move beyond meteorology and meteorologists. purifying the weather meteorologists’ desires to better understand and predict atmospheric processes have driven meteorology to fashion increasingly more extensive and uniform observational networks.10 the result has been, as edwards shows us, the making of the ‘vast machine’ that characterises contemporary, global meteorology, and which comprises a complex, evolving assemblage of observers, instruments, models, data flows, and centres of calculation. neither creating, or maintaining this assemblage has been an easy task, requiring as it does both the ongoing inscription of the atmosphere, the continual enrolment of those actors that constitute meteorological systems, and the connection of those systems together into infrastructural networks.11 while the ‘vast machine’ has become extensive, as with assemblages of such scale and complexity, it is fragile insofar as its ability to render weather legible relies upon intricate coordination across time, space, instruments, observational practices, and weather cultures. edwards talks persuasively of the friction that accompanies the inscription and circulation of meteorological data, and of the ways in which this continually disrupts the smooth functioning of meteorological networks. however, friction is more than a technical problem, insofar as it involves both organisational and social dimensions. in this vein, hulme has pointed out that meteorology’s global assemblages are constituted in, and through, a multiplicity of weather cultures which exist at multiple scales, situated in different organisations and in different places.12 some of these cultures, insofar as they advocate alternative understandings of weather and how it can be forecasted, have been engaged with by meteorologists in order to dissolve them. traditions of lay forecasting, for example, have long been a target of meteorologists seeking to bolster the unstable credibility of meteorology.13 in other situations the different cultures are within meteorology itself which, despite its standardising dynamic, is always confronted by the particularities of local circumstances, and the tension of transforming local 10 paul edwards, ‘meteorology as infrastructural globalism’, osiris, 21 (2006): 229-250. 11 paul edwards, a vast machine: computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming, (the mit press, 2010). 12 mike hulme, ‘geographical work at the boundaries of climate change’, transactions, institute of british geographers, ns 33 (2008): 5-11; benjamin orlove and sarah strauss, weather, climate, culture, (berg, 2003); tim sherratt, tom griffiths and libby robin, (eds.), a change in the weather: climate and culture in australia, (national museum of australia press, 2005). 13 katharine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology, (university of chicago press, 2005); henry, ‘inspired divination’. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 184 weather into global data and vice versa.14 such circumstances are shaped by unique combinations of weather, instrumental assemblages, and the variable priorities of technopolitical actors, and almost inevitably lead to the evolution of situated meteorological cultures within and between different agencies and the users they connect with. consequently, while the friction of data is in part related to its particular material and informational characteristics, it can also be seen as a result of the relational, professional practices required to create, circulate and use atmospheric knowledges between different user groups.15 as with many field-based disciplines the relationships within which meteorology has established its onto-epistemological project have been characterised by the uneasy dynamic of what latour describes as purification.16 taking form in processes such as professionalization, instrumentation, automation and so on, this has involved sustained work to redraw the epistemological boundaries around meteorology that has necessitated the exclusion of a wide range of weather and climate knowledges, and associated interpretative communities.17 in turn this epistemological work has contributed to the ontological project of creating meteorology as a properly scientific discipline defined by its focus on a stable object of inquiry. yet, meteorology has never been able to operate as a hermetically insulated discipline because of the need to use increasingly dispersed observational networks to collect the weather data that is the lifeblood of meteorology, and the consequent requirement to enrol a myriad of ostensibly scientific actors to voluntarily or otherwise to perform those networks.18 meteorology throughout the nineteenth century and into the twentieth century relied upon amateurs to produce much of its basic data, and each of these actors had their own motivations, capacities and relationships that did not necessarily align with those of meteorology’s own onto-epistemological atmospheric projects.19 as a consequence, meteorology’s always-incomplete purification involved intense work focusing on orchestrating diverse actors around aspirations to create an infrastructural science that could produce increasingly fine-grained, globalised weather understandings, and which would position meteorologists as the ‘obligatory points of passage’ for other users seeking information about the weather.20 14 simon naylor, ‘nationalizing provincial weather: meteorology in nineteenth-century cornwall’, british journal for the history of science, 39 (2006): 407-432; simon naylor, regionalizing science: placing knowledge in victorian england, (pickering and chatto, 2010). 15gary fine, authors of the storm: meteorologists and the culture of prediction, (university of chicago press, 2009). 16 bruno latour, we have never been modern, (harvard university press, 1993). for a discussion of the inevitable impurity of science as practiced see: simon shapin, never pure, (the johns hopkins university press, 2010). 17 for a wider discussion on this theme in science see: thomas gieryn, cultural boundaries of science: credibility on the line, (the university of chicago press, 1999). 18 jeremy vetter, ‘lay observers, telegraph lines, and kansas weather: the field network as a mode of knowledge production’, science in context, 24 (2011): 259-280. 19 georgina endfield and carol morris, ‘exploring the role of the amateur in the production and circulation of meteorological knowledge’, climatic change, 113 (2012): 69-89. 20 this phrase comes from michael callon, ‘some elements of a sociology of translation: domestication of the scallops and the fisherman of st brieuc bay’, in john law (ed.), power, action and belief: a new sociology of knowledge? (routledge & kegan paul, 1984): 196-233. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 185 one specific target of this work was on reconstituting informational networks to improve their speed, standardisation, and conceptual reach in order that meteorology could be established as an essential infrastructure support for aviation. in the united states, for example, turner points out that meteorologists prior to second world war began to produce atmospheric models and observational assemblages that reflected the upper atmosphere needs of aviation rather than other users such as agriculturalists.21 this was a pattern that was also reflected in meteorological services developing in places such as new zealand where despite repeated calls for services such as frost warnings and seasonal forecasting from farmers, the nzms increasingly focused on developing observational and forecasting networks concerned with the needs of the developing aviation industry.22 the result can be seen as mutually constitutive, insofar as while meteorology enabled aviation the obverse was also true, and that moreover meteorology increasingly came to conceptualise the atmosphere as an ensemble of processes in ways framed by the concerns of aviation. the twentieth century was the century of experts in which the command of knowledge was central to the development of the modern nation-state, globalised commerce, and the networks that made these novel relationships possible.23 meteorology’s internal processes of purification reflected the rise of scientific expertise as a particular source of authority, and involved a range of work to dissolve other forms of authority. however, concomitant with this project was the intensification of meteorology’s relationships with other expert cultures that were also simultaneously seeking to build new social and material worlds.24 meteorology’s entanglement with aviation is a paradigmatic example of these intensifying relationships, although one only lightly sketched in the broad context of the trans-tasman histories of meteorology and aviation.25 what distinguishes these intensifying entanglements from meteorology’s internal projects to purify itself was the requirement for the negotiation of much more symmetrical relationships with other actors who had their own distinct logics, projects and claims to technoscientific authority. here, then expertise in specific weather knowledges such as 21 turner, weathering heights. 22 henry, ‘inspired divination’. 23 mitchel dean, governmentality: power and rule in modern society, (sage publications, 1999); rebecca lave, ‘the future of environmental expertise’, annals of the association of american geographers, 105 (2015): 244-252; charles maier, ‘consigning the twentieth century to history. alternative narratives for the modern era’, american history review, 105 (2000): 807-831; tim mitchell, rule of experts: egypt, techno-politics, modernity, (university of california press, 2002). 24 james kneale and samuel randalls, ‘invisible atmospheric knowledges in british insurance companies, 18301914’, history of meteorology, 6 (2014): 35-52; ruth morgan, ‘farming on the fringe: agriculture and climate variability in the western australian wheat belt, 1890s to 1980s’, in james beattie, emily o’gorman and matthew henry (eds.), climate, science, and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, (palgrave macmillan, 2014): 159-176; meg parsons, ‘destabilizing narratives of the “triumph of the white man over the tropics”: scientific knowledge and the management of race in queensland 1900–1940’, in james beattie, emily o’gorman and matthew henry (eds.), climate, science, and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, (palgrave macmillan, 2014) pp. 213-232; mark whitehead, state, science and the skies: governmentalities of the british atmosphere, (wiley-blackwell, 2009). 25 matthew henry, ‘trans-tasman meteorology and the production of a tasman airspace, 1920-1940’, environment and nature in new zealand, 4 (2009): 14-36. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 186 those related to the needs of aviation, and how these knowledges should be used to shape action, should be seen as the outcome of negotiated, contingent relationships between different domains of expertise rather than being the intrinsic feature of any one body of expertise. the development of relational, expert weather cultures is the product of complex technical, organisational and social process, and one whose exploration contains the potential to provide new insights into the development of meteorology as an infrastructural science and how it contributed to the worldbuilding work of network makers.26 framing meteorology and its relationships in these terms raises questions about how these relationships are negotiated and practiced, what forms of novel assemblages arise out of them, and what are the implications for understanding how weather knowledges are put to work in the making of social and material worlds. it is to exploring these questions, in the context of the development of regular flights across the tasman sea between new zealand and australia, that the remainder of the paper turns. fashioning trans-tasman weatherscapes the weather has been a concern for potential aviators for as long as they have contemplated taking to the skies. the emergence and rapid development of powered flight following the wright brothers’successful demonstration at kitty hawk in 1903 quickly led to requests for meteorological information to help prospective flights in the united states and elsewhere.27 if aviators quickly realised the importance of meteorological forecasts, then meteorologists across the world also realised the opportunities that would accrue from reconstituting their discipline as an essential support to aviation. in new zealand following the end of world war one (ww1) the government meteorologist, reverent daniel c bates quickly grasped the intimate link between aviation, security and meteorology, arguing that, “though i am not very sanguine about the immediate prospects of commercial or civil aviation, yet i firmly believe that something will have to be done, and that it is necessary to encourage it and have it in the background as a support to the defence of this dominion.”28 in this context, bates concluded that, “for the development of aviation the prime necessity is the extension of the meteorological service.”29 however, in a refrain echoed by his successors, he feared that such extension would be beyond the capacity of a service that was understaffed and under equipped, and in this context he argued 26 kneale and randalls, ‘invisible atmospheric knowledges’. 27 kristine harper, ‘meteorology's struggle for professional recognition in the usa’, annals of science, 63 (2006): 179-199; john de lisle, sails to satellites: a history of meteorology in new zealand, (new zealand meteorological service, 1986). 28 daniel bates, ‘international meteorological conference’, (20 january 1920), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, met 1 8/8 pt1, p.5. 29 daniel bates, ‘international meteorological conference’. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 187 that it would be dangerous to develop air services without attendant improvements in meteorological services.30 bates predicted that extending meteorology’s ability to support aviation would require the expensive reorganisation of observational, reporting and forecasting networks as well as the development of specialist instruments and skills to inscribe and interpret aviation-centric weatherscapes.31 in new zealand, the post-world war one work of assembling meteorological networks to support the nascent aviation industry crystallised in the provision of forecasts by dr edward kidson, bates’ successor as director of the nzms, for the successful flight of charles kingsford smith and charles ulm’s southern cross across the tasman sea in september 1928.32 this network required significant, novel work to fashion a new understanding of atmospheric processes in the tasman sea, and equally the orchestration of new socio-political relationships between new zealand and australian meteorologists. the result of this work was that knowing ‘the weather’ emerged as essential to securing national and imperial interests in the production of a successful, pioneering trans-tasman flight.33 the inherent uncertainties involved in the intersection of weather forecasting and trans-oceanic flights prompted kidson and others to reflect on their own particular responsibilities in relation to how their advice could be used by pilots. a previous failed attempt to cross the tasman, leading to the deaths of the aviators george hood and robert moncreiff in early 1928, had led to the suggestion of an inquiry into trans-tasman flights, and their possible suspension. here kidson, who had also supplied forecasts to hood and moncrieff, advised his colleagues in australia’s commonwealth bureau of meteorology (cbm) that they should be prepared to answer questions, but that he felt, ‘the aviators knowingly took a sporting risk and luck was against them.’34 however, he also felt that progress was needed to made in supplying better forecasts because, ‘too great a responsibility is liable to be thrown upon the meteorologists.’35 the meteorological network fashioned to support the flight of the southern cross was an ad hoc assemblage that only enabled a very limited set of forecasts to be produced and disseminated for a single return flight.36 while the southern cross flights demonstrated the potential for regular trans-tasman air flights it also showed that a significant amount of 30 daniel bates, ‘letter to secretary, marine department’, (13 february 1920), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, met 1 8/8 pt1. 31 de lisle, sails to satellites. john dubois, robert multhauf and charles ziegler, the invention and development of the radiosonde, (smithsonian institution press, 2002); chihyung jeon, ‘flying weather men and robot observers: instruments, inscriptions, and identities in us upper-­‐air observation, 1920–1940’, history and technology, 26 (2010): 119-145. 32 edward kidson, ‘meteorological conditions during the first flight across the tasman sea’, quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society, 55 (1929): 53-54. 33 henry, 'trans-tasman meteorology'. 34 edward kidson, ‘letter to mares, division meteorologist, commonwealth meteorological bureau, sydney’, (19 january 1928), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/1. 35 edward kidson, ‘letter to mares, division meteorologist, commonwealth meteorological bureau, sydney’, (30 january 1928), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/1. 36 see edwards et al, understanding infrastructure, for a useful discussion of the difference between such ad hoc assemblages and infrastructure. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 188 connection work between meteorologists in new zealand and australia would be required in order to consistently produce reliable, and timely, weather forecasts over the tasman sea.37 throughout the 1930s the growing geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of aviation was becoming increasingly evident in the pacific. during the mid-1930s pan american airway (paa) began negotiating with the new zealand government about the establishment of a pacific route between san francisco and auckland that could be eventually connected to the imperial airways (ia) route linking london and sydney.38 at the heart of these negotiations was a growing realisation of the geopolitical significance of meteorology’s forecasting networks. notwithstanding rapid developments in the capabilities of aircraft, without reliable weather forecasts the pacific remained a vast and dangerous place in which to fly. consequently, control over forecasting networks offered in a degree of control over the air routes themselves, and the united states and united kingdom (plus new zealand and australia) actively engaged in meteorological network making as part of their wider geopolitical manoeuvring in the pacific. while the tasman sea was dominated by australia and new zealand the imminent arrival of paa into new zealand in the late 1930s meant the possibility of both commercial and geopolitical disruption as the united states extended its power into the pacific. as with paa’s developing route between san francisco and auckland the technopolitical issues of meteorological forecasting represented a key dimension in the creation of an exclusive, imperial air route across the tasman sea. to this end the interrelated issues of the meteorological information and radio networks needed to support regular trans-tasman flights was the focus of a conference held at melbourne’s victoria barracks in mid-december 1938 that brought together civil aviation and meteorological representatives from the new zealand and australian governments.39 at this conference the meteorological representatives from both the nzms and the cbm proposed a scheme based on the arrangements that had already been thrashed out in relation to trans-atlantic flights, and which in turn derived from recommendations developed by the international commission for aviation meteorology. collectively they argued that the core basis for the creation of effective trans-tasman weather forecasting lay in the further development of cooperation between the services in new zealand and australia. in other words, beginning to integrate the meteorological systems that had largely developed independently in each country in order to produce a shared network to support an air route across the tasman. 37 henry, 'trans-tasman meteorology'. 38 matthew henry, ‘australasian airspace: meteorology and the practical geopolitics of australasian airspace, 19351940’, in james beattie, emily o’gorman and matthew henry (eds.), climate, science, and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand, (palgrave macmillan, 2014): 233-249. 39 new zealand meteorological service, 'conference of representatives of the commonwealth and new zealand governments, (12 december, 1939), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, (ablo 8 9/5/3 1935-1939). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 189 the nzms and cbw both agreed that closer cooperation required further work in developing what egyedi has termed gateways, between their different systems.40 there needed to be the constant interchange of the synoptic weather reports that both agencies had been gradually extending in geographical scope over the previous decades.41 while it was recognised that these synoptic reports were not specially prepared for aviation, it was nonetheless felt that they would provide a basis for specialised interpretative work by dedicated aviation meteorologists based in offices in sydney and auckland. in this scheme, once a report had been prepared it would then be sent to the other office for information and review. this procedure represented a novel departure for forecasting in new zealand since previously all forecasts had been prepared centrally at the nzms head office in wellington, and this proposal offered a redistribution and partial decentralisation of interpretative authority, a key element of what edwards has argued is the evolution of discrete systems into infrastructures.42 the rationale for the exchange of analysis lay in the desire to produce a uniform forecast across the route, and a recognition of the unavoidable, but potentially ambiguous, component of interpretation in the preparation of forecasts. on this point new zealand’s representative, dr miles barnett, maintained that “the meteorologist at either end requires to know what the other man thinks about the situation, so that there may be uniformity, and you have the advantage then of the concerted opinion of the two men.”43 following agreement on a forecast for the tasman route it would be given to pilots for them to use. here barnett argued that the pilot needed to have an identical copy of the map prepared by two meteorologists in order to facilitate any changes to the flight that might have to be made because of the developing weather situation during a flight. in discussing this procedure, however, there was no explicit reference made to the potential interpretative role of the pilot in either route planning or responding to changing weather in the air. rather, it was assumed that the forecasters at either end of the route would remain the point of passage for understanding and interpreting changing weather conditions over the tasman. the trans-tasman weatherscape that the meteorologists proposed fashioning was to be comprised of three interrelated facets: the creation and circulation of synoptic reports; the 40 tineke egyedi, ‘infrastructure flexibility created by standardized gateways: the cases of xml and the iso container’, knowledge, technology & policy, 14 (2001): 41-54. gateways are points of standardised connection through which things such as information can flow. 41 for accounts of the gradual extension of synoptic reporting in new zealand and australia see: john de lisle, ‘the new zealand meteorological service -the beginnings 1861-1927’, in michael hoare and linda bell (eds.), in search of new zealand's scientific heritage, (royal society of new zealand in conjunction with the alexander turnbull library, 1984): 17-23; kirsty douglas, 'under such sunny skies': understanding weather in colonial australia, 1860-1901, (australian government bureau of meteorology, 2007); roderick home and kevin livingstone, ‘science and technology in the story of australian federation: the case of meteorology, 1876-1908’, historical records of australian science, 10 (1994): 109-127; eric webb (ed.), windows on meteorology: australian perspective, (csiro publishing, 1997). 42 edwards et al, understanding infrastructure. 43 barnett was a physicist working at the department of scientific and industrial research (dsir) who had been selected by edward kidson to develop meteorological services in the pacific. part of his meteorological training also involved him qualifying as a pilot. he had recently returned from completing his meteorological training in britain, see: mcgreal, a history of civil aviation in new zealand. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 190 fashioning and circulation of forecasts specific to the trans-tasman flights between the forecasting meteorologists; and the circulation of those forecasts between the meteorologists and pilots. this proposed system put new relationships into play. in the first instance, it created a new geography of forecasting. previously forecasting by meteorologists in either country had largely been confined to forecasts defined by their own national borders, but in developing tasman forecasts the meteorologists were creating new forecasting spaces that did not neatly fit into previous, largely national scale reporting, interpretation and dissemination practices. second, what the conference left partially unanswered, but which nonetheless would be a crucial question, was the nature of the relationships between the various actors being enrolled in this new network. the conference was clear that the logic of uniformity would drive the relationship between australian and new zealand meteorological practice where it came together in the tasman, but left assumed that it would be the meteorologists who would have overriding interpretative authority in respect to the decisions made by pilots about developing weather situations. fig. 2. mechanics bay meteorological station, c.1950. source: sir george grey special collections, auckland libraries, 1370-35-23. parts of the network proposed in melbourne existed already. synoptic reporting had been the stock-in-trade for meteorological agencies from the mid-nineteenth century onwards following the expansion of national and international telegraph networks.44 both the nzms and 44 deborah coen, ‘the storm lab: meteorology in the austrian alps’, science in context, 22 (2009): 463-486; robert friedman, appropriating the weather; vilhelm bjerkes and the construction of a modern meteorology, (cornell university press, 2009); hugill, global communications. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 191 the cmb (and their precursor agencies) had expended significant efforts over the decades prior to 1938 in establishing and connecting observatories and weather observers into national weather forecasting systems.45 however, as home and livingstone argue, while the use of the telegraph to transmit synoptic observations was simple and effective in theory, in practice it was dogged with difficulties that ranged from equipment malfunctions through to an indifference to the potential value of meteorological data.46 from the mid-nineteenth century onwards the meteorological officials in the australian and new zealand colonies had been in regular correspondence to try and produce standardised meteorological data that could be circulated more easily between them.47 however, despite agreements between meteorologists they were reliant upon access to telegraph networks, and while this access was of inestimable value to them, telegraph organisations tended to see otherwise. in an era of limited capacity and laborious data handling, telegraph companies needed ongoing persuasion to treat meteorological reports with priority. in new zealand, for example, by the late 1927s the reverent dc bates, director of the nzms, was still consistently complaining about delays in the transmission of weather cables caused by their low priority in the eyes of telegraph operators, and that the, “principle of the whole of the morning forecast being subject to the exigencies of the pacific company’s business is simply unthinkable”.48 in this case the technological possibilities of networked weather reporting clashed with the friction of competing political and economic demands on overstretched lines. access to telegraph services, even begrudgingly offered ones, slowly knitted new zealand and australian meteorological systems together. but they did so only on a terrestrial basis. one problem in trying to fashion forecasts for the tasman sea was the tasman sea itself, and the difficulties associated with collecting and circulating weather observations from within it.49 the synoptic reporting emerging at the cusp the post-ww1 development of aviation in new zealand and australia relied upon expanding networks of land-based, and ground-based, observers knitted together by growing networks of telegraph lines. while these networks gradually made weather processes over land legible, what was occurring at sea and in the upper atmosphere remained largely unknowable.50 the growing use of wireless telegraphy prior to the first world war had prompted discussion amongst meteorologists about the possibilities of using it to enable ships to report weather observations as a way of extending synoptic reporting into places such as the tasman. in new zealand, bates was an enthusiastic proponent of 45 de lisle, ‘sails to satellites’; william gibbs, origins of australian meteorology, (bureau of meteorology, 1988). douglas, ‘under such sunny skies’. 46 home and livingstone, ‘science and technology’. 47 douglas, 'under such sunny skies'. 48 daniel bates, ‘letter to permanent secretary, department of scientific and industrial research’, (22 january 1927), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, anz met 1 8/8/2, p.2. 49 for a discussion of the difficulties of doing science at sea that mirrors the problems faced in the tasman see: katharine anderson and helel rozwadowski (eds.), soundings and crossings: doing science at sea, 1800-1970, (science history publications, 2016). 50 matthew henry, ‘assembling meteorology: balloons, leaking gas, and colonial relations in the making of new atmospheres’, journal of the royal society of new zealand, 47 (2017): 162-168. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 192 extended marine reporting, lobbying the government for more resources to improve the quantity and quality of such reports. likewise, in australia, bates’ colleague ag ackroyd at the cbm regarded the adequate provision of marine reporting as being very important.51 however, while ship based reporting provided a means of peering into the tasman, its reliability and hence usefulness was ambiguous. this was because of the same sets of problems confronting meteorologists in gauging the reliability of data from land-based observers including: the variable quality and calibration of instruments, and the equally variable quality and diligence of observers. it was also not helped by the generally low priority given to the taking and timely transmission of meteorological observations by ships’ officers. despite the enthusiasm of people such as bates and ackroyd, the compromises of ship based weather reporting meant for others, such as bates’s successor at the nzms, kidson, a dedication to developing better land-based networks at the expense of ship-based networks. nonetheless part of the scheme to create a trans-tasman weatherscape involved the more systematic attention to collecting meteorological information from ships crossing the tasman. upon the return of dr barnett to new zealand following the melbourne conference, the head of the new zealand’s department of scientific and industrial research (dsir) dr ernest marsden announced a plan to equip the ussco awatea and huddard packer’s wanganella with observation stations. described by marsden as ‘floating observatories’ these streamers regularly plied the proposed trans-tasman aviation route and could offer regular, up-to-date reports on weather conditions in the tasman.52 onboard the wanganella the australian meteorological authorities posted a balloon observer who would periodically release weather balloons to provide wind reports from the upper atmosphere. mindful of criticism of past efforts at ship-based reporting marsden maintained that the equipment supplied and calibrated by the nzms, “would be far superior to that which had been utilised for tasman observations in the past” and that on the basis of this fact alone, “it was expected that observations would enable a greatly improved general observational and forecasting service for the dominion itself.”53 what this system sought to establish in distinction to ad hoc observations being carried out grudgingly by ships’ officers was a different set of relationships in which ship-based observations would be much more tightly controlled by meteorological authorities, and more closely framed by the epistemological expectations of uniformity and accuracy the framed general synoptic reporting. in these developments, we can see a further situated illustration of the ongoing purification of meteorology as its data generation practices and reporting networks were progressively made to revolve around the organisational and epistemological authority of meteorologists rather than other actors such as ships’ officers. 51 daniel bates, ‘letter to secretary, department of scientific and industrial research, (2 november 1926), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, met 1 8/8/3; ackroyd, ‘letter to commonwealth meteorologist, commonwealth weather bureau, melbourne, (22 november 1926), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, met 1 8/8/3. 52 weather data, new zealand herald, (10 january 1939), p.10. 53 miles barnett, 'letter to the general manager, union steam ship company re: weather reports from ships', (21 july 1939), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/3 1935-1939. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 193 the extent to which ship-based weather observations had become integral to the general system of aviation forecasting can be seen in complaints following the start of the trans-tasman service. the service started in april 1940, but with the outbreak of war in the pacific in december 1941 meteorological communications suddenly became strategically significant. consequently, radio broadcasts became subject to censorship and encoding, and broadcasts from ships were curtailed.54 with a proposal to extend the nascent trans-tasman service to include night flights, the officer-in-charge of auckland’s meteorological section reported that the lack of reports from shipping in the tasman, “leave the present network short of vital information essential if adequate meteorological safeguards are to be maintained.”55 a similar point was articulated by barnett who observed that the absence of ships’ reports left forecasters in auckland seriously handicapped. helping to plug the gap left by the absence of ships’ reports were weather observations radioed to the forecasters in auckland and sydney by pilots over the tasman, and he hoped that there would be no effort to reduce this radio traffic because of the exigencies of war.56 the telegraph, and then radio, enabled meteorologists to more than transcend their locality and enable action at a distance, it also permitted the weather to be inscribed into new forms of visual representation that profoundly changed how the weather could come to be known. kirsty douglas suggests that the weather is illegible, and that to render it legible, and usable, required the fabrication of new forms of visuality characterised by the attenuation of complexity in the pursuit of predictable, representatable order.57 thus, the generalised isobaric patterns and meteorological codes that enabled the telegraphic circulation of meteorological information relied upon the heroic abstraction of weather phenomena. in this way the weather map became a quintessentially modern artefact that both reflected and supported meteorology’s ontological status as a modern project and its position as part of the necessary infrastructure of the modern world.58 yet this quintessentially modern project involving the inscription and circulation of the weather was constantly being challenged by equipment (unstandardized instruments) and circumstances (lax observational procedures at sea) that continued to defeat the goals of uniformity. other relationships could also potentially disrupt the project of making the tasman sea’s weather knowable. as barnett had observed at the 1938 melbourne conference a key part of the creation of a uniform tasman forecast was the circulation of analysis as well as the circulation of observations and charts. kidson, barnett’s predecessor as director at the nzms, had since the 54 miles barnett, 'h-37 report of the director of the meteorological office for the year ended 31st march 1940', appendix to the journal of the house of representatives, 3 (1940): 22-24. 55 l.n larson, 'report by l.n. larson on meteorological conditions over the tasman sea as affecting possible regular night flying on the route between auckland and sydney', (undated), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/3 1942-1945. 56 miles barnett, 'letter to the acting-controller of civil aviation, (27 march 1942), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/3 1942-1945. 57 douglas, 'under such sunny skies'; james scott, seeing like a state, (yale university press, 1998). 58 edwards, 'meteorology as infrastructural globalism'. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 194 early 1930s been developing forecasting methods for aviation in new zealand based on the norwegian school of frontal analysis.59 this work had been spurred by the unexpected visit of jorgan holmboe to new zealand in 1933 as the meteorologist on the lincoln ellsworth antarctic expedition. however, like observational data the exercise of interpretative expertise required constant calibration between meteorological centres, particularly where it started to be based on new conceptual models of the atmosphere such as were starting to be used in new zealand. discussions at the intercolonial conferences in the late nineteenth century had thrown up tensions concerning the extent to which the colonial meteorologists felt the need to subordinate their situated expertise in relation to forecasting to the standardised protocols of the royal meteorological society.60 uniformity of instrumental calibration and observational practices was one thing, but but trying to do the same thing for forecasting was another insofar as forecasting was argued to depended upon the situated interpretative ability of experts operating in dispersed calculative centres. this issue was highlighted by ln larsen, an assistant meteorologist at the nzms’s aawo based at mechanic’s bay, who in mid-1939 asked for permission to accompany the aotearoa on its next trans-tasman survey flight between auckland and sydney.61 the genesis for his proposal had come from the aotearoa’s captain jack burgess who had expressed his belief that significant benefits would accrue from having a meteorologist accompany the survey flights so as to be able to directly compare the forecast conditions with the actual conditions experienced by pilots on the flight.62 larson also argued that in addition, “it would be of great value to us to contact the australian people and see just what they are doing.”63 larson flew to sydney with the aotearoa on its next survey flight, and his report on return affirmed the value of the trip. the flights had enabled him to directly compare the forecast weather and the actual weather, and for the return journey he had been able to personally see how the cbm meteorologists went about analysing and preparing their weather charts and forecasts. observing the work of his australian colleagues, wrote larson, “will be of great value in interpreting the statements from that service at a later date and to assist in them in interpreting the situation as 59 edward kidson and jorgan holmboe, frontal methods of weather analysis applied to the australia-new zealand area: part 1 discussion, (department of scientific and industrial research, 1933); edward kidson, ‘the analysis of weather charts’, the australian geographer, 2 (1935): 3-16. 60 home and livingstone, ‘science and technology’. 61 l.n. larson, 'letter to dr barnett, (19 september 1939)', archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/4 1939. prior to working at the mechanics bay office, larsen had been in charge of the nzms office at christchurch’s wigram aerodrome with a particular focus on instructing royal new zealand air force pilots and navigators, see: evening post, ‘weather services’, (23 august 1939): 11. 62 captain jack burgess was a new zealander who undergone pilot training in the united kingdom and had subsequently served in the royal airforce and with imperial airways. a brief biography of burgess was published on his arrival with the centaurus from sydney in december 1937, see: ‘proud family’, auckland star, (27 december 1937): 9. 63 l.n. larson, 'letter to dr barnett', (19 september 1939), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/4 1939. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 195 transmitted by one’s own service.”64 however, while larson praised the hospitality of his hosts he was critical of some of their methods. he noted for instance that in the cbm’s sydney office standardised maps were not used for the preparation of synoptic weather charts, and that isobaric contours were sometimes plotted in millibars and sometimes in inches. in plotting these charts, the sydney office used cabled data from new zealand, but larson expressed his surprise that no formal system had been put in place to receive the nzms’s broadcasts. at the cbm office in melbourne, larson discussed arrangements for the trans-tasman route with the commonwealth meteorologist william watt. as with the practice he observed at the sydney office, larson felt that improvements could be made in the plotting of synoptic charts. he inspected the system for collecting the bureau’s upper air soundings, reporting that in relation to air mass classification, “a local terminology based on broad geographical limits has been adopted for internal use.”65 more importantly he observed that, “in the analysis again little attempt is made to analyse the tasman sea and new zealand area. copies of the various charts used in the synoptic section have been secured and it will be seen that some do not include new zealand at all.”66 larson’s comments are sharpened if they are placed alongside contemporaneous reflections by kidson about the future development of the nzms.67 kidson noted the rapid expansion of the nzms and the difficulties associated with training large numbers of new officers. one specific problem that was being addressed was the need for uniformity in the making and coding of meteorological observations. here he pointed to the essential art of the forecaster depends upon visual uniformity insofar as the “only way in which a meteorologist can understand the existing situation and so anticipate future changes is to plot the information on charts so that it can be taken in by the eye, and the relation of the different elements grasped…. if reports come in different codes, if different elements are reported, or different units used, the difficulty in charting is very much increased.”68 in particular, he argued, the need for uniformity was especially acute for aviators since by the very nature of their activity they were constantly moving from system to system. consequently, “the methods of plotting reports and drawing maps must, therefore, also be uniform. the charts themselves must [be?] on uniform and suitable projections and the number of different scales used reduced to a minimum.”69 in order to achieve this desired level of uniformity kidson advocated adhering as closely as possible to the voluntary standards established by the international meteorological organisation (imo) because it enabled 64 l.n. larson, 'survey flight by flying-boat 'aotearoa' to australia, 24th. sept. to 1st oct. 1939. report by l.n. larson, meteorologist, auckland', (undated), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/4 1939. p.1. 65 larson, 'survey flight by flying-boat 'aotearoa' to australia', p.5. 66 larson, 'survey flight by flying-boat 'aotearoa' to australia’, p.5. 67 edward kidson, 'h-34 meteorological branch: report of the director, 1938-39', appendix to the journal of the house of representatives, 3 (1938): 96-102. 68 edward kidson, 'h-34 meteorological branch’, p.96. 69 edward kidson, 'h-34 meteorological branch’, p.96. given these comments one hesitates to think what kidson would have made of larson’s report showing the variations in charts and plotting in the australian meteorological offices. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 196 the creation of a visual language for the weather that transcended either language or organisational differences.70 fig. 3. preliminary flight forecast, auckland to sydney, 30 june 1942. source: archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/3 1935-39 70 edward kidson, 'h-34 meteorological branch’, p.96. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 197 larson’s visit to sydney and melbourne, as well as kidson’s statements about uniformity in forecasting, highlighted the importance of barnett’s earlier assertion that regular tasman forecasting required more than the circulation of uniform data. it also required the fashioning of uniform interpretative spaces. larson’s observations of the day-to-day plotting practices of his cbm colleagues illustrated subtle variations in analysis. local variations that in themselves were not necessarily important when framed within the confines of a nationally organised meteorological system, but which could easily cause misunderstandings when locally coded analysis was circulated beyond the context of its production and interpretation. larson’s series of observations about the relative lack of use of new zealand derived data, and the general deficit of attention to the analysis of the tasman reflected the different environmental conditions and priorities that confronted each meteorological agency. thus, in the case of the australian meteorologists the analysis of the situation over new zealand was of far less importance than air movements from the tropics downwards, while conversely new zealand’s prevailing westerly air movements meant that the australian situation provided an important indication of future weather conditions over the tasman and new zealand. thus, the creation of a trans-tasman weatherscape was then not simply a case of connecting together two existing meteorological systems. rather it required degrees of harmonisation between the priorities of two local networks that had orientated themselves in different ways towards different weather patterns while larson focused on the work of his australian colleagues, he also briefly touched on the relationship between pilots and meteorologists. based on his own flights and discussions with captain burgess and others he observed that, “the captain of the aircraft feels more confidence in the forecaster if it is known that he has had actual flying experience over the route in question.”71 larson’s point about the confidence needed by a pilot in forecasters, and how that confidence could be developed, reflected the growing importance of the relationship between pilots and meteorologists as flights grew longer and increasingly over water. a feature of the discussions that occurred during the 1938 melbourne conference was the tension between meteorologists and aviation representatives on the relative authority of an aircraft’s captain vis-àvis a forecaster. the system that was being proposed at the melbourne conference was predicated upon the routing of meteorological information through the meteorological offices in either sydney or auckland. in turn, these offices would act at centres of calculation for the interpretation of weather information and preparation of forecast charts. while pilots would have copies of these charts, once in the air further reports and analysis would continue to come through the two meteorological offices. a point affirmed by dr barnett, who under questioning from squadron leader cs wiggins, stated that, “except in special emergencies, the whole thing should go through the terminals.”72 however, wiggins continued to press the point about a 71 l.n. larson, 'survey flight by flying-boat 'aotearoa' to australia', a sentiment that perhaps explains dr maf barnett’s pilot training as part of his meteorological training in the united kingdom. 72 new zealand meteorological service. ‘conference of representatives of the commonwealth and new zealand governments’, (12 december 1938), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga, ablo 8 9/5/3 history of meteorology 8 (2017) 198 definite procedure arguing that, “in an emergency he might need to use facilities available from a ship and from an observer on that ship. therefore it would seem advisable that during normal conditions that procedure should be practised.”73 barnett resisted, arguing that such a practice would be not be desirable, in part because he could not see a situation where a ship based observer could provide more information than what was coming from the forecasters located at the terminals. one of the cbm meteorological representatives hm warren suggested that the issue of an aircraft captain contacting ships in the tasman was an operational issue insofar as, “the ships will be putting in their reports to the terminal stations and the terminal stations will be using those for the preparation of its messages” and that this would constitute the normal circuit of meteorological information.74 however, warren also suggested that, “if there is any other message a ship desires, that would be an ordinary operational matter for the pilot.”75 a distinction that barnett continued to express his doubts about, but to which he reluctantly agreed. the result was that aircraft captains would have the authority to seek further weather information from sources outside the normal meteorological network if they felt they needed to do so. at the heart of this dispute was the emerging relationship of authority and expertise between forecasters and pilots. framed by the authority of action given to sea captains, pilots had been accorded very significant, albeit largely tacit, authority over the operation of their aircraft and flights. such authority rested on the assumed expertise of the pilot as the ultimate point of operational decision-making in flying an aircraft. moreover, meteorological instruction was, as turner shows, an increasingly significant part of pilot training by the late 1930s and pilots could claim with some justification to have degrees of situated, interpretative expertise when it came to weather.76 however, as aviation’s operational assemblages grew in complexity the singular authority of the captain also shifted. the meteorological system being put in place in melbourne in 1938 did more than simply place a weather chart and forecast in the hands of the pilot. rather via continual radio contact it placed the forecaster in the cockpit with the pilot as another potential centre of expertise and authority. here then existed the conditions for tension between the meteorological expertise of the forecaster and the operational expertise of the pilot, particularly where pilot training was largely silent on how that relationship was to be negotiated. in new zealand, for example, meteorological instruction codified in publications such as the royal new zealand airforce’s elementary meteorology simply framed the relationship in terms of the supply of information to pilots, not how that information was to be used, and not what other information might also be used for decision-making in relation to weather conditions.77 1935-1939. p.9. 73 new zealand meteorological service. ‘conference of representatives’, p.9. 74 new zealand meteorological service. ‘conference of representatives’, p.10. 75 new zealand meteorological service. ‘conference of representatives’, p.10. 76 turner, weathering heights. 77 royal new zealand airforce, elementary meteorology, (whitcombe & tombs, 1941). a later discussion of a lecture outline for pilot training talked about the point of meteorological instruction as being about providing pilots with enough understanding to have an intelligent conversation with a meteorologist about weather reports and history of meteorology 8 (2017) 199 given this context squadron leader wiggins’ pressing on the issue of the ability of pilots to seek information beyond the formal meteorological network illustrated a nervousness about the potential diminution of expertise, authority and status of pilots caused by the enmeshing of pilots and the operation of their aircraft within wider assemblages of command. conversely, dr barnett’s continued belief in the sufficiency of the forecasts being provided from the terminals reflected the significance attributed to the production of a uniform tasman weatherscape, and the potential disruption to that uniformity of information and analysis that might result from the ad hoc addition of weather information and analysis from ships in the tasman sea. consequently, in what appears to be a minor debate there lurked quite significant questions about the relationship between two bodies of expertise and between the ideals of the situational authority of pilots vis-à-vis the search for consistency and uniformity that framed the work of the meteorologists. in this respect, the decision to allow pilots to contact ships for situational observations outside the normal circulation of meteorological analysis represented a continuing recognition of the overall authority of pilots in navigating trans-tasman airspace in relation to the growing aspirations of meteorologists to become the singular point of interpretative authority. forecasts, see, officer in charge (wigram), ‘letter to director, nzms’, (5 august 1966), archives new zealand / te rua mahara o te kāwanatanga ablo 46/6/2. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 200 fig. 4. poster advertising the new trans-tasman air route, c.1946. source: national library of new zealand, eph-d-aviation-1946-01 conclusion in late 1944 the new zealand herald boldly announced in relation to trans-tasman flying that the weather had been mastered (see figure 4).78 with the combination of improved meteorological information and practices, plus four years of experience operating across the tasman, flights were now running to within a few minutes of scheduled times. the emergence of regular flights was in no small part dependent upon the creation and ongoing maintenance of a trans-tasman meteorological infrastructure that was producing regular weather reports and forecasts. this paper has traced the emergence of this network, its historical antecedents and the effort that it took to bring multiple strands of information and analysis into uniform alignment. a key dynamic in the fashioning of this new service was the gradual purification of meteorological 78 new zealand herald, ‘tasman flying’, (28 october 1944): 8. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 201 networks that saw meteorology’s long and dispersed inscription systems becoming increasingly uniform and connected, albeit never completely so. at the centre of these developing networks rested the ideal, albeit never fully realised, of the interpretative authority of the meteorologist who alone had the expertise to transform the data of atmospheric tumult into usable guides for action. meteorology’s internal dynamics of purification existed in tension with the increasing intensity of its relationship as an infrastructural science with other fields of activity such as aviation. such relationships were highly productive, spurring the generation of new theories, techniques and instruments in order to make legible the phenomena of novel spaces such as the upper atmosphere. however, as the paper has argued, by becoming increasingly entangled with aviation, meteorologists also confronted limits to their authority insofar as their developing relationships with pilots exposed alternative sources of authority in respect to decision-making about the weather. while meteorologists positioned themselves as key interpretative actors in confronting aviation’s weather problems, it was a contingent authority that allowed room for the continuing exercise of pilots’ situated decision making regarding their use of weather information. beyond the specific development of a trans-tasman aviation route and the negotiation of the relationship between meteorologists and pilots on that route, what this paper is arguing is that emerging research into meteorology’s history need to be more actively searching for the myriad traces of the relationships between meteorologists and the other actors, such as pilots, who have been involved in the making, circulation and use of meteorology as an infrastructural science in the fashioning of modern worlds. meteorology’s historiography has been dominated by the effort to uncover and understand how meteorology came to be global, and how meteorologists came to be the points of passage through which the weather became legible. what has been missed, as central objects of attention, are the ways in which the story of meteorology’s purification and extension has a corresponding story in the intensification of its relationships to other networks and spheres of work. what this paper has shown is that in exploring the story of meteorology’s intensifying relationships with other professional groups we can start to build a richer picture of how meteorology came to be able to act in the world at a distance through other actors. but in doing so we also begin to see how that ability to act has been intimately framed by the negotiation of the tension between contrasting sources of expertise and authority enacted by the variety of actors involved in the making of situated, relational weatherscapes such as was begun to be produced over the tasman sea in the late 1930s. acknowledgements i would like to thank the editors for their invitation to contribute to this special issue. i would also like to thank the two anonymous reviewers who commented on the initial manuscript. their insightful comments have been extremely useful in sharpening the focus of the final paper, and in avoiding some simple historiographical omissions. as usual, however, any remaining faults with the paper are the responsibility of the author. microsoft word 4) mckittrick.docx history of meteorology 8 (2017)       74 theories of “reprecipitation” and climate change in the settler colonial world meredith mckittrick mckittrick@georgetown.edu georgetown university introduction in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, men trained in science sought to change the climate of arid lands by impounding water in order to increase local atmospheric concentrations of water vapor. they argued that this would create the conditions for increased precipitation: the vapor would condense and fall as rain, which would evaporate and then reprecipitate as more rain, thereby creating a closed weather cycle. these arid lands, located on the margins of expanding empires, could be transformed from deserts into gardens suited to european settlement. the idea that rainfall could be generated from land-based moisture originated in europe but gained little traction there. yet it circulated widely in the arid lands where people of european descent had settled. while controversial among scientific experts and government officials in the colonies, the dream of creating the conditions for local precipitation persisted, in some cases into the 1940s, appearing in north africa, brazil, the u.s. west, australia, south west africa, and south africa. this article traces the idea of reprecipitation as it flowed around the settler colonial world. it asks how the history of meteorology changes when we relocate it both physically and conceptually: from the self-proclaimed center of civilization to geographic margins that aspired to civilized status, and from a teleological story of scientific progress to a more meandering tale of contingency and uncertainty. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       75 historians freely acknowledge the limitations of climate knowledge prior to the mid-20th century. thomas dunlap captures some of this uncertainty when he writes of the late nineteenth century, “expert opinion and the ideas of ‘practical men’ rested on the same foundations, and the experts usually knew no more than the farmers.”1 and as paul edwards notes, the basic model of global circulation was understood by the middle of the 19th century, “yet the causal relationship between the circulation and the climate remained poorly understood” until the middle of the 20th century.2 many of the general factors that shaped climate had been identified, and there was a basic understanding that atmospheric conditions combined with local environmental conditions to shape weather patterns.3 but the balance of these factors and the extent to which they could be modified was debated well into the 20th century. the reality of what this uncertainty meant is often lost in historians’ quest for the origins of ideas we now take as foundational to our understanding of climate. in recent years, interest in the history of meteorology and climatology has exploded, as scholars seek to understand how these fields developed over the past two centuries.4 the interest is motivated in large part by contemporary concerns over global climate change, and this has shaped the development of the field. much of this literature seeks to identify pioneers who first understood what we know today--about past variations in the earth’s climate, the role of carbon dioxide in global warming, or the political implications of climate change, for example. but this is not a simple story of steadily accumulating scientific knowledge. the precursors to contemporary ideas about climate were embedded in an intellectual world from which they are not easily extracted, one that also incorporated ideas that have not withstood the test of time.5 this fact is widely understood by climate historians, but little is said about those other, now-disproven, ideas.6 they are regarded as historical dead ends of little consequence, aside perhaps from helping us understand the context of the times that produced the fields of meteorology and climatology. following those other, now-discredited ideas can yield its own historical insights, however. sheila jasanoff, describing the importance of “sociotechnical imaginaries,” argues that                                                                                                                 1 thomas dunlap, nature and the english diaspora: environment and history in the united states, canada, and new zealand (new york: cambridge university press, 1999), 75. 2 paul edwards, a vast machine: computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming (cambridge, ma: mit press, 2010), 61. 3 sam white, “unpuzzling american climate: new world experience and the foundations of a new science,” isis 106, no. 3 (2015): 545. 4 a sampling of recent work includes vladimir jankovic, reading the skies: a cultural history of english weather, 1650-1820 (chicago: university of chicago press, 2001; orig. manchester university press, 2000); james beattie, emily o’gorman, and matthew henry, eds., climate, science, and colonization: histories from australia and new zealand (new york: palgrave macmillan 2014); philipp lehman, “changing climates: deserts, desiccation, and the rise of climate engineering 1870-1950,” ph.d. diss., harvard university, 2014; edwards, vast machine; spencer weart, the discovery of global warming (cambridge: harvard university press, 2003); james rodger fleming, fixing the sky: the checkered history of weather and climate control (new york: columbia university press, 2010); james rodger fleming, historical perspectives on climate change (new york: oxford, 1998). 5 lehmann, “changing climates,” 45-46; weart, discovery, 5-7; fleming, fixing the sky, 4; fleming, historical perspectives. 6 the supposed link between deforestation and reduced rainfall is an exception in this regard. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       76 attending to competing visions of the future “restores some of the indeterminacy of history and avoids the determinism built into grand narratives of scientific progress.” such imaginaries blend emerging technologies and scientific ideas with “material, moral and social landscapes” – landscapes that might otherwise escape our notice.7 following the theory of reprecipitation around the world reveals one set of responses to the winding down of what john weaver has called “the great land rush.” settler societies built on decades of territorial acquisition in the temperate zones of north america, southern africa, australia, and south america found themselves against limits – often in the form of arid lands that were marginal for growing crops and, in some cases, for raising livestock as well. “[s]ocieties habituated to expansion scrambled for solutions,” weaver writes.8 one solution was to alter the climate of these marginal lands. the scientific foundation for the dream of bringing rain to the world’s arid lands by flooding them was inadvertently laid by two men who are in other respects now considered pioneers: john murray and eduard brückner. murray is regarded as one of the founders of the field of oceanography (and indeed, is often credited with inventing the term).9 brückner, known for his work on glaciers and for using historical evidence to reconstruct past climates, is acclaimed today (including by the society that publishes this journal) as one of the first to think about the social and economic impacts of climate change.10 in the context of such achievements, murray’s and brückner’s work on reprecipitation is a historical footnote. brückner’s articles on the land-based origins of rain and the circulation of water on the planet do not appear in a translated and edited volume of his work and are not cited by those who write about the importance of his ideas today.11 similarly, murray’s article that inspired brückner is not mentioned in any of the major websites dedicated to his achievements. as is often the case with climatology research in the 19th century, their work on the origins of rain was motivated by other concerns.12 murray’s interest was the ocean floor rather than rainfall: he sought to “estimate what portion of the rain that falls on the land finds its way back again to the ocean by means of rivers,” in part because he wanted to understand the terrestrial origins of marine sediments.13 brückner had proposed a 35-year weather cycle but realized that it                                                                                                                 7 “introduction,” in sheila jasanoff and sang-hyun kim, eds., dreamscapes of modernity: sociotechnical imaginaries and the fabrication of power (chicago: university of chicago press, 2015), 2, 23. 8 john c. weaver, the great land rush and the making of the modern world, 1650-1900 (montreal: mcgillqueens university press, 2003), 311-12. 9 john rafferty, oceans and oceanography (new york: rosen educational services, 2011), 242. 10 paul edwards writes that brückner was an “ ‘issue entrepreneur,’ promoting political action on the basis of scientific evidence … a remarkable precursor to modern climate politics.” (edwards, vast machine, 67.) 11 philipp lehmann, “whither climatology? brückner’s climate oscillations, data debates, and dynamic climatology,” history of meteorology 7 (2015), 49-69; nico stehr and hans von storch, eds., eduard brückner: the sources and consequences of climate change and climate variability in historical times (dordrecht: kluwer academic publishers, 2000). 12 fleming, historical perspectives, 65, makes the same observation of tyndall and arrhenius. 13 john murray, “on the total annual rainfall on the land of the globe, and the relation of rainfall to the annual discharge of rivers,” scottish geographical magazine 3 (1887), 65. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       77 seemed to operate differently in western and eastern europe. his investigation into the origins of rainfall was an attempt to explain the discrepancy and thus to salvage his theory.14 but murray’s and brückner’s ideas about the land-based origins of rain rippled far beyond the concerns that gave rise to them. they offered a scientific basis for popular ideas and had a substantial impact on european settler societies emerging on the margins of empire. explorers and settlers trained in science found in the idea of reprecipitation a way to make sense of why the interior lands they encountered were so arid – and a possible explanation for why evidence of former lakes and running water appeared in places that now appeared waterless. many argued that a prior, self-perpetuating cycle of rainfall created through the evaporation of water from inland lakes had been disrupted in some way. surface water had drained away to the sea and initiated a cycle of progressive desiccation – a cycle some said could be reversed. in northeastern brazil and in southern namibia, a brazilian military engineer and a german farmerscientist cited brückner when they argued that diverting rivers and creating “inland seas” could increase precipitation and change local climates. similar schemes using the same logic were proposed for north africa, australia, and south africa. even when murray and brückner were not cited directly, their calculations of the supposed proportion of precipitation originating on land were invoked to prove that such inland seas would indeed increase rainfall. it was the shared – and troubling experience of aridity in these far-flung lands that gave murray and brückner’s calculations similar significance in otherwise quite different contexts.                                                                                                                 14 eduard brückner, “über die herkunft des regens,” verhandlungen des vii internationalen geographenkongresses 2 (1899), 412-20; reprinted in geographische zeitschrift 6 (1900), 89-96. brückner was part of a larger conversation that sought to calculate the earth’s water balance. see m. i. lvovitch, “world water balance (general report),” in iash/unesco/wmo, world water balance: proceedings of the reading symposium july 1970 (gentbrugge: iash, 1972), 401-415. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       78 fig. 1. locations of proposed reprecipitation schemes, 1860s-1940s. late nineteenth and early twentieth century meteorology thus looks very different when viewed from the edges of empire, in part because the animating concerns were so different. past evidence of ice ages held little significance in places like australia’s interior, the sahara, southwestern africa, the brazilian sertão, and the u.s. west. here, the driving fear was not a return of glaciers but the specter of drought. when people spoke of climate change they referred not to the cooling or warming of the planet, but to an increase or decrease in rainfall. and here, apparent evidence of past well-watered landscapes – in the form of dry riverbeds and lakeshores, eroded rock, marine fossils and, sometimes, the oral accounts of indigenous people – could not be easily explained by the ending of an ice age and the melting of glaciers. many who observed these places where geomorphology and current climate seemed to tell conflicting stories speculated that there had been a radical change, one that needed explaining. the work of murray and brückner formed the foundation of an explanation. desert mysteries historians have paid far more attention to the idea that forests affect rainfall than to the idea that bodies of water could create local precipitation. in part this is because the former was more history of meteorology 8 (2017)       79 widely stated and investigated than the latter.15 before geo-engineering became conceivable in the late nineteenth century, planting trees was a more practical intervention that creating bodies of water for those who wished to shape the climate. but the two ideas share a fundamental assumption about the importance of “vapors” on climate – one that was modified in the nineteenth century to accommodate understandings of evaporation and condensation in the water cycle. the idea that land-based water, like forests, played a role in local rainfall seems to have been common sense long before it was scientifically investigated. in the temperate climates of europe and eastern north america, people talked about the effect of surface water or forests primarily in terms of air temperature – the feature of the climate that most concerned people. swamps and forests released more water vapor into the air than open, drained land. water vapor cooled the air, resulting in a colder climate. it was this concept that served as the basis for the claims of north american settlers that their arrival had moderated the continent’s climate. the removal of trees and cultivation had opened up the land to the heat of the sun and reduced the amount of cooling vapor released into the atmosphere; the result was warmer winters with less snow – but also drier air that was healthier for human bodies.16 there were those who challenged the idea that changes associated with settlement necessarily improved climate. but the notion of what constituted a climate improvement was quite consistent, and it focused primarily on warmer winter temperatures and less humid air. when european settlers ventured into more arid environments, however, the notion of what an improved climate looked like was turned on its head. men encountering the dry lands of southern africa, the american west, north africa, and the australian interior were hardly concerned about too much moisture and cold. the mechanisms that drove climate change were understood in similar ways, but the direction of desirable change was reversed. in 1843, the missionary, explorer and doctor david livingstone, traveling in the kalahari, followed a dry watercourse that “must have been as broad as the thames at westminster.” coming to “what must have been a large lake,” he found collections of fossil bones.17 a few years later, livingstone arrived at lake ngami in the okavango delta, on the northern edge of the kalahari, and observed that it had been much larger in the past. describing the outlet of the lake, he wrote, “the water supply of this part of the river system … takes place in channels prepared for a much more copious flow. it resembles a deserted eastern garden, where all the                                                                                                                 15 see e.g. richard grove, green imperialism. in the 19th century, a diverse range of scientists sought to demonstrate the impact of forests on rainfall. see a. woeikof, “der einfluss der wälder auf das klima,” petermanns mitteilungen 31 (1885), 81-87. he notes that the difference in evaporation between forest and nonforest areas is too great to be explained by the greater moisture, and lower temperature of forests and argues that it is the capacity of forests to reduce wind that matters. his arguments influenced ferdinand gessert, the reprecipitation enthusiast in south west africa. 16 fleming, historical perspectives, chapter 2. also clarence gacken, traces on the rhodian shore: nature and culture in western thought from ancient times to the end of the 18th century (berkeley: university of california press, 1973), 687-9. 17 quoted in georgina endfield and david nash, “drought, desiccation, and discourse: missionary correspondence and nineteenth-century climate change in central southern africa,” the geographical journal 168, no. 1 (2002), 39. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       80 embankments and canals for irrigation can be traced, but where the main dam and sluices having been allowed to get out of repair, only a small portion can be laid under water.”18 livingstone repeatedly referenced the “proofs of desiccation met with so abundantly throughout the country” – local people who insisted dry streambeds had once watered rich herds of cattle; shorelines and mollusk shells found far from existing surface water; pools that had vanished and springs that had weakened over the course of a few years.19 livingstone’s experiences were shared by many newcomers to the kalahari and its margins, but their explanations for such apparently recent and radical changes varied. many blamed the loss of forests at the hands of african and european settlers, resting their arguments on the popular belief that forests attract rain. livingstone speculated that geomorphological changes were the cause. the african continent is an inverted bowl, with high ridges along its edges and lower elevations in the interior. this bowl had trapped large quantities of water, livingstone reasoned, until breaches in the ramparts along the margins, made via erosion or earthquakes, allowed the water to escape. livingstone surmised that the zambezi river was once “collected in a vast lake” that had drained when the earth fissured to create victoria falls, thereby diverting the mighty river to the indian ocean.20 the geographer siegfried passarge, surveying the kalahari in the late 1890s, reviewed the accounts of 19th-century travelers and concluded, “a wealth of observations not only indicates a decline in water in historical times, but deposits, river beds, old lakebeds, imply a very different climate and a much greater water supply.”21 while noting that many writers in south africa and beyond attributed a drying climate to deforestation, passarge insisted that there was no evidence of deforestation in the kalahari and its margins.22 in the 1860s, americans also wondered at the evidence of once-abundant water in dry lands. a doctor named joseph widney, traveling across the colorado desert, wrote that the desert was “a serious disturbing element in the climate of southern california,” a “huge furnace from which withering blasts make forays upon more favored territories around.” but it had not always been thus: widney also observed “the parched and death-stricken remains of some ancient world.” aquatic fossils, stands of dead trees, a well-defined shoreline, and local tales of vanished human populations in this waterless land prompted him to conclude that the area’s climate had changed dramatically only a few centuries before.23 the basin had once been a gulf, he wrote, “its waters shallow and easily heated … a steaming cauldron, keeping the air-currents                                                                                                                 18 david livingstone, missionary travels and researches in south africa (new york: harper and brothers, 1858), 79-80. 19 livingstone, missionary travels, 76; also 16, 62, 125. livingstone’s father-in-law, the missionary robert moffat, traveled through a valley in what is now eastern botswana and also marveled at evidence of water erosion in the form of smoothed stones and boulders (endfield and nash, “drought,” 40). 20 livingstone, missionary travels, 363. 21 siegfried passarge, die kalahari: versuch einer physisch-geographischen darstellung der sandfelder des südafrikanischen beckens (berlin: dietrich reimer, 1904), 103. 22 passarge, die kalahari, 662. 23 joseph widney, “the colorado desert,” overland monthly, 10 (jan. 1873), 44-50. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       81 above constantly saturated with moisture.” he argued that the evaporation from the gulf, “if all recondensed and precipitated” would have added 12 inches of rain over an area twice the size of ohio and lowered the temperature significantly. the lower evaporation rates of a cooler climate had once allowed water to percolate into the ground and feed springs and streams, he argued.24 widney concluded that diverting the colorado river toward the now-dry basin in order to form a freshwater lake would reestablish these conditions. the proposal was popular, but an 1874 report concluded that his claims for climate amelioration required further investigation.25 that investigation never seems to have happened. charles john frémont, governor of arizona territory in the late 1870s, temporarily resurrected widney’s idea to dam the colorado in order to fill the salton sea. frémont argued that resulting vapors “would cool off the entire american southwest, changing its arid climate,” and he proposed to mexican president porfirio díaz that they work together to create “an agricultural paradise.”26 the existence of shallow pans, seasonal swamps, lakes that were occasionally filled with water, fossil riverbeds and water channels, and evidence of aquatic life and water erosion puzzled these visitors from temperate zones. the concept of an earth that was more than a few thousand years old was still relatively new. by the late 19th century the planet was regarded by most men of science as somewhere between 50 million and 150 million years old.27 but accounts of local people and the presence of dead trees, mollusk shells, and other apparently recent traces of wetter times led even visitors who were not attached to biblical time scales to assume that changes had taken place over the course of centuries – or at most millennia – not over millions of years. these changes thus appeared relatively recent. there also is little indication that new arrivals understood that these features might be a normal part of deserts; arid and semi-arid environments were largely conceived as waterless. instead, the geomorphology of many desert landscapes led travelers to conclude that aridity was a new condition, evidence that nature had taken a wrong turn – one that perhaps could be reversed. it was an idea echoed as late as the 1940s by the popular australian writer ion idriess, who described the dry riverbeds that crossed the interior, evoking a climate “which once spilled great quantities of water into what is now desert.”28 “watercourses from opposite points of the compass, coming from the far east and far west, have been designed by nature to meet,” he wrote. “it would be one of the greatest meetings of the waters in the world if these waters did                                                                                                                 24 widney, “colorado desert,” 47. 25 p. laflin, the salton sea: california’s overlooked treasure (indio: coachella valley historical society 1995), ch. 1. 26 andrew rolle, john charles frémont: character as destiny (norman: university of oklahoma press 1991), 251. president díaz’s response is not recorded. eventually, widney’s proposed scheme was carried out – although by accident rather than design. the salton basin partially refilled in 1905-07, when the colorado river overwhelmed diversion canals meant to bring irrigation water into the basin. a 1915 study by a team of engineers concluded that the creation of the sea had not changed the area’s rainfall. h.t. cory and william blake, the imperial valley and the salton sink (san francisco: j. j. newbegin, 1915), 14-16. 27 g. brent dalrymple, the age of the earth (stanfordf: stanford university press, 1991). 28 ion idriess, the great boomerang (london: angus and robertson 1948), 18. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       82 meet, as in ages past. … those thousands of square miles of barren hollow should and were meant to be filled by a chain of freshwater lakes.”29 the impression of a lost pluvial golden age was particularly powerful in north africa, which – unlike other arid environments europeans encountered in the 19th century – had long been part of europe’s known world. many french writers argued that north africa had once been among the most fertile places on earth, and physical features in the landscape suggested a wetter past. as diana davis has shown for french algeria, the idea that the land had become sterile through mismanagement by the local people drove key aspects of french policy, including projects to plant trees and laws restricting indigenous algerians’ access to forest resources.30 here as elsewhere, ideas about increasing rainfall through afforestation coexisted with plans to increase rainfall through creating large bodies of water. in 1874, the military officer and engineer françois roudaire noted the vast, dry “chotts” or pans in the saharan lands france was claiming. roudaire suggested that sand blown from the south had filled channels that delivered water to the chotts. “the retreat of the waters to the sea appears … to have profoundly modified the climate of these flourishing regions.”31 roudaire claimed the newly constructed suez canal was influencing precipitation on the surrounding land. the implications for the sahara were dramatic: if a simple canal could increase rainfall, a “vast gulf” recreated in the chotts could have a much greater impact, he argued.32 roudaire proposed diverting mediterranean water inland to create a “saharan sea” and secured the support of ferdinand de lesseps, the french diplomat who had recently overseen the successful completion of the suez canal.33 the british engineer donald mackenzie, who simultaneously proposed a similar scheme, also argued that diverting water into the chotts would create a self-reinforcing cycle: “the rivers which find their way into this depression would be considerably larger, because the evaporation would cause the rainfall to be much heavier in the surrounding countries.”34 such ideas were not limited to the realm of folk culture and educated lay people. in 1885, the geologist and botanist ralph tate argued that australia’s geomorphology told a similar tale. “a vastly increased rainfall over what is now the arid region of australia in former times is demanded by the extinct rivers and lakes and the former existence of large herbivores,” he wrote. tate did not dwell on the causes of this change, but he saw such shifts as self-reinforcing cycles: “the replacement of the arid plains by freshwater seas, though a consequence of an amelioration                                                                                                                 29 idriess, boomerang, 31. 30 diana k. davis, “restoring roman nature: french identity and north african environmental history,” in diana k. davis and edmund burke iii, environmental imaginaries of the middle east and north africa (athens: ohio university press 2011), 70-74; see also diana davis, resurrecting the granary of rome: environmental history and french colonial expansion in north africa (athens: ohio university press 2007). 31 françois elie roudaire, rapport à m. le ministre de l’instruction publique sur la mission des chotts: études relatives au project de mer intérieure (paris: imprimerie nationale, 10th ed., 1877), 79. 32 roudaire, rapport, 66. 33 lehmann, “changing climates” chapter 2, details the sahara sea scheme. 34 donald mackenzie, the flooding of the sahara: an account of the proposed plan for opening central africa to commerce and civilization from the north west coast (london: sampson low, marston, searle, and rivington, 1877), 222-223. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       83 of climate, must have had a reciprocal effect, conversely as the existence of a dry zone produces aridity and thereby intensifies the effect.” 35 irrigation, too, could theoretically increase precipitation: john wesley powell, lauded now for his realistic assessment of the u.s. semi-arid lands, predicted in 1888 that bringing irrigation to “lands that now present the desolation of deserts” would allow the local evaporation of water that would otherwise run to the sea, “and the humidity of the climate will be increased thereby … as the general humidity is increased, the moister air, as it drifts eastward in great atmospheric currents, will discharge more copious rain … as the lands gain more and more water from the heavens by rains, they will need less and less water from canals and reservoirs.”36 on the origins of rain if the belief that the local production of water vapor had a direct relationship to rainfall was an old one, it was given scientific respectability at about the same time that powell was speculating about the impact of irrigation channels on the climate. in 1887, john murray published an article that attempted to quantify what proportion of rain falling on land ran to the oceans and what portion evaporated into the atmosphere. in the 1870s the canadian-scottish murray had been part of the challenger expedition, a four-year endeavor to explore the world’s oceans. in subsequent decades, he continued his marine research from scotland and oversaw the publication of a 50-volume report on the challenger expedition. murray’s interest in the question of rainfall derived from his interest in the oceans: he sought to “estimate what portion of the rain that falls on the land finds its way back again to the ocean by means of rivers,” in part because he wanted to understand the origins of the solids that had been deposited on the ocean floor.37 murray admitted that his data were imperfect: he used a world rainfall map created by elias loomis, a yale professor of natural philosophy with an interest in meteorology, in order to calculate mean rainfall in various river drainage basins, on continents, and over 10-degree bands of latitude. murray also relied on existing measurements of river flow – data whose inaccuracies mirrored the unevenness of european knowledge of the world. he thus overstated the importance of the rivers europeans knew best, and underestimated the flow of many that were less well known. 38 his deceptively precise conclusion -that 1/4.499 of the rain that fell on land ran to the oceans-was thus built on a numerical house of cards. but it carried with it a powerful implication: that                                                                                                                 35 ralph tate, “post-miocene climate in south australia,” transactions and proceedings and report of the royal society of south australia 8 (1884-5), 53, 55. 36 john wesley powell, “trees on arid lands,” science 12, no. 297 (oct. 1888), 170-1. grove karl gilbert of the us geological survey wrote the chapter on water supply in powell’s 1879 report, speculating that the impact of the great salt lake on the climate of the land just east of it was to vastly increase humidity and precipitation. report on the arid lands, 79-80. 37 john murray, “on the total annual rainfall on the land of the globe, and the relation of rainfall to the annual discharge of rivers,” scottish geographical magazine vol. 3 (1887), 65. 38 as just one example, murray used figures for asian rivers, such as the indus and ganges, that were around half and one-fifth their actual flows. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       84 virtually all the rest was evaporated into the air and reprecipitated as rain. thus, most of the rain that fell on the earth’s land surfaces did not come from the oceans, as many held, but rather came from water vapor derived from land surfaces. in an article titled “on the origins of rain,” the german scientist eduard brückner seized on murray’s argument. brückner noted that most scientists had assumed that rainfall derived almost entirely from the oceans. a few geographers, including the austrian alexander supan and the russian alexander woiekof, had speculated that land-based evaporation contributed to rainfall, mainly in the form of transpiration from trees. but scientists had been unable to calculate how much water vapor the earth’s land surfaces contributed to the atmosphere because there had not been a reliable way to measure global evaporation. murray’s calculations, combining river flow and rainfall data, offered a way out of this predicament. brückner simplifying murray’s figure – argued that if only 22%, or 2/9, of the water that falls on land returns to the sea, it followed that the rest was eventually evaporating from the land itself. brückner concluded: “the role of the land’s surface is not passive in the water cycle; to an enormous extent it contributes to the moisture content of the air: nearly two-thirds of falling rain comes from the water vapor delivered by the land surface, and so are of continental origin. … a water particle, which came to the country from the ocean through the atmosphere, falls an average of three times as precipitation, before it returns to the bosom of the ocean.”39 brückner and murray were part of a growing interest among scientists in working out the “water balance” of a given region by measuring precipitation, streamflow, and evaporation -an interest which eventually extended to the water cycle of the entire planet.40 but brückner, like murray, was motivated by other concerns. he had recently proposed a 35-year cycle of rainfall, and he had realized that it worked differently in western and eastern europe. ideas of land-based rainfall offered a way out of this conundrum: brückner suggested that evaporation in western europe ultimately contributed to precipitation in eastern europe – but did so on a delay as the recycling process played itself out, thereby explaining why the continent’s weather cycles were not synchronized. land-based water vapor could only come from surface evaporation or transpiration from plants. murray and brückner’s work therefore breathed new life into debates about the impact of forests on rainfall, as transpiration from trees was considered a major source of water vapor. the theory that forests attract rain remained controversial into the early 20th century but it was by no means entirely discarded. instead, some scientists suggested that new understandings of atmospheric processes offered a mechanism that could explain the role of forests in precipitation. in 1912, raphael zon of the u.s. forest service cited brückner’s work in arguing that forests were a key source of the water vapor generated on land. winds that blew onto the u.s. mainland from the atlantic and gulf dropped their load of moisture fairly close to the coasts. without the                                                                                                                 39 brückner, “über die herkunft,” 96. 40 jamie linton, what is water? the history of a modern abstraction (vancouver: university of british columbia press, 2010), 114-15. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       85 “vast forest areas” of the coastal plains and the appalachians, there would be no new source of moisture. the southerly winds that blew into the prairies would be dry and the american breadbasket would produce a vastly smaller harvest. the forests of the eastern united states explained why the midwest did not look like the u.s. west, zon argued: they helped recycle oceanic rainfall on land, ensuring that interior areas received precipitation.41 american agronomy also adopted these ideas. in an essay on plant succession and crop production, a professor of botany at ohio state university restated brückner’s ideas to explain precipitation patterns in the united states and is worth quoting at length: it is not difficult to see that if an air current loaded with moisture from an ocean reservoir reached a land area and deposited some of this water, the air current would become rapidly dry as it passed over the land. very little moisture would, under these conditions, be transported inland for any great distance. an examination of the earth shows that a good deal of water falls on the land at some distance from the oceans, leading up to the obvious conclusion that a current of air is picking up water vapor and precipitation water all the time as it passes over a continent. … a current of air moving over the land and precipitating moisture would be continually having more moisture added to it, a reinforcement of the supply so to speak, from the evaporation of water from the land surface.42 as jamie linton has argued, “a kind of hydrological orientalism” was at work in many of these scientific attempts to represent the water cycle and imagine the origins of rainfall. they were rooted in “a discourse that normalizes copious volumes of liquid surface water” and demonstrated “faith in the universality of humidity.”43 it was in semi-arid and arid environments where such faith was most dramatically tested. in the absence of vast tracts of forests – or the possibility of establishing them the idea of reprecipitation came to rely almost entirely on the existence of bodies of water. the xerophytic plants of these areas released very little water vapor into the air, as edwin quayle, an australian meteorologist, noted. quayle investigated the impact of both surface water and the irrigated cultivation of non-native plants such as wheat on australia’s rainfall. he argued, on the basis of rainfall records, that widespread irrigation in parts of the country had caused an increase in rainfall – but also that rainfall was higher near bodies of water such as spencer’s gulf.44                                                                                                                 41 raphael zon, “forests and water in light of scientific investigation,” appendix v of final report of the national waterways commission (washington: government printing office 1912). 42 adolph e. waller, “the relation of plant succession to crop production: a contribution to crop ecology,” the ohio state university bulletin 25, no. 9 (jan. 20, 1921), 19-22. 43 linton, what is water?, 123-24. linton notes that modern diagrams of the water cycle do the same thing. 44 e.t. quayle, “possibilities of modifying climate by human agency, with special application to south-eastern australia,” proceedings of the royal society of victoria 33 (1921), 115-132. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       86 in 1921, a german hydrologist named karl fischer critiqued brückner’s 1899 article, arguing that brückner seemed to posit an inner water cycle, independent of the general circulation of the atmosphere – an assumption that did not stand up to scrutiny. fischer noted that some of the water evaporated from land drifted to oceans and precipitated as rainfall there, and vice versa. the hard and fast figure of 7/9 was thus based on a simplistic understanding of the water cycle.45 yet debates continued. sixteen years later, a popular climatology textbook by w.j. humphreys, a former president of the american meteorological society, stated, “all rain on land does trace back, of course, to evaporation over the great bodies of water, but in part through one or more reevaporations and reprecipitations.” humphreys repeated a simplified version of murray’s figure, stating that “the total annual run-off from all lands” is about onefourth the total precipitation that falls on them. and he reiterated the concept of the selfreinforcing cycle: “[a] wet region furnishes abundant evaporation for the production of more rain, while a dry one, of course, furnishes relatively little evaporation and therefore tends to remain dry. in short, droughts tend to hang on and rainy spells to persist – little rain less rain, much rain more rain.”46 the importance of local conditions in the weather cycle made sense to many people seeking to understand the logic of the climate. but it appeared particularly logical to men grappling with those parts of the world that little interested murray and brückner: the arid lands europeans were encountering in the 19th century, many of them part of closed drainage basins. these closed basins were commonly regarded as being in some sort of balance: zon stated of them that “the precipitation and evaporation are, as a rule, equal.”47 but if conditions on the ground shaped the amount of water vapor that could precipitate as rain, what would happen if conditions inside one of these basins changed? at this point, men who marveled at evidence of once-abundant water in lands that were now dry picked up the emerging scientific understanding of the water cycle and decided that humans could shape the climate by engineering the surface of the land. redemption through reprecipitation when widney and roudaire thought about bringing water into deserts to make it rain, they were working from an understanding of the origins of rain derived from folk knowledge and what was accepted as common sense. their successors were often trained in science, and they cited the research of respected scientists such as brückner and supan when they argued for the feasibility of their climate-engineering schemes. and although no one seems to have cited murray’s 1887                                                                                                                 45 karl fischer, “die grundgleichungen des wasserhaushaltes der flussgebiete,” meteorologische zeitschrift 38 (1921), especially 333-35. 46 w.j. humphreys, weather rambles (baltimore: williams and wilkins company, 1937), 251-2. 47 zon, “forests and water,” 224. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       87 article, his calculation of the amount of rain that derived from land-based evaporation was treated as fact by those who hoped to create cycles of reprecipitation in arid environments. one of the first of this new generation of aspiring climate engineers was ferdinand gessert, trained in physics in germany. in the 1890s, gessert used the prize money he’d won for a physics paper to travel to the southern part of germany’s new colony of south west africa, an area whose average rainfall was less than 150 mm a year. there he acquired a 50,000-hectare farm from a local chief. gessert began to teach himself farming, experimenting with water storage, irrigation, and a variety of crops. but within two years of his arrival, he was also considering the possibility of changing the climate of his adopted home. german officials had already suggested diverting the kunene, a perennial river on the colony’s northern border, in order to relieve intense water shortages in a nearby region where most of the colony’s african population lived. 48 gessert argued that such a diversion would do more than increase the water supply; it would quite likely improve the climate by filling etosha pan, a seasonal drainage basin whose ancient shorelines indicated it had been much larger in the past, thereby increasing atmospheric humidity and precipitation.49 the evidence gessert marshaled to support his claim illustrates the range of literature he managed to acquire from his outpost on the margins of the namib desert. south west africa was twice the size of california and had fewer than 1000 germans living in it, most of them clustered in a few towns. yet gessert was aware that others were venturing into arid zones around the globe. he cited the accounts of visitors to the gobi desert -a place where, he argued, the disappearance of a large lake had reduced rainfall and caused advanced civilizations to collapse. gessert used german colonial publications to contrast the fate of the gobi to that of east africa, where the great lakes sustained a rain-rich climate and a promising german colony.50 the farmer-physicist also must have read powell’s report on the arid lands of the united states, because he summarized grove karl gilbert’s chapter in the report, which argued that water evaporating from the great salt lake in north america condensed on the surrounding mountains, resulting in markedly higher rainfall around the lake’s eastern shores. 51 and he discussed – approvingly roudaire’s plan for an inland sea in the sahara.52 gessert also referenced nearly every published account by 19th-century explorers in southwestern africa to support his contention that the climate of southern africa was becoming increasingly dry – “on the path to the desert,” as he put it. echoing livingstone, gessert wrote that southern africa was suffering the fate of the gobi, its surface water vanishing due to                                                                                                                 48 it’s unclear who first suggested diverting the kunene river into north-central namibia, but it is referenced in p.h. brincker, “bemerkungen zu bernsmanns karte des ovambolandes,” globus 70, no.5 (1896), 80. 49 ferdinand gessert, “der seewind deutsch-südwestafrikas und seine folgen,” globus 72, no. 19 (1897), 297-99. 50 ferdinand gessert, “klimatische folgen einer kunene-ableitung,” globus 71, no. 24 (1897), 391-2. 51 gessert, “klimatische folgen,” 391-2. 52 ferdinand gessert, “die mutmasslichen klimatischen folgen einer kunene-ableitung,” zeitschrift für kolonialpolitik, kolonialrecht und kolonialwirtschaft herausgegeben von der deutschen kolonialgesellschaft 6 (1904), 161. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       88 geomorphological changes. livingstone had suggested that the zambezi was to blame for the draining of southern africa; gessert added the kunene, which emptied into the atlantic. both rivers, he said, had once drained inland but were now “gnawing” into the terrain, seizing inlanddraining rivers and sending their water to the oceans.53 brückner’s article was crucial to gessert’s theory that river diversion could repair this damage – and that in the absence of such diversion, rainfall would continue to decline. gessert cited brückner when he argued that 7/9 of the rain that fell on land was reprecipitated – derived from water evaporated from the continents rather than from the oceans. he echoed woiekof without attribution when he wrote that reprecipitation accounted for the heavy rainfall along the amazon river. for gessert, this meant that providing more land-based water vapor was an urgent necessity. the vast lake that would result from diverting the kunene inland would save southwestern africa from becoming a vast desert.54 these ideas were adopted by other germans in southern africa. the farmer heinrich paulsmeier wrote to the south african agricultural journal in 1914, “it is quite certain that such a large sheet of water in the center of southern africa must have had a decided influence for the good on the rainfall of south africa.”55 the geographer passarge agreed but placed the kalahari in the context of the entire continent’s climate history. aware that the sahara had once been wetter, passarge speculated that africa had experienced cycles of moister and drier conditions that mirrored the ice ages of europe. but then, passarge wondered, why had the congo basin retained its water even in a cycle of declining rainfall while the sahara and the kalahari had lost so much of theirs? passarge’s answer was drawn from brückner, as well as supan and woiekof: the congo basin’s moisture was reprecipitated, derived “from the congo basin itself.” by contrast, the geomorphology and wind systems of the sahara and the kalahari combined to ensure that evaporated water was swept away, to fall as rain elsewhere. as a result, central africa remained dominated by rivers and moist forest, while desert conditions prevailed at the northern and southern ends of the continent.56 gessert’s proposal to reverse this pattern of water loss was given a much wider audience by another scientist of german ancestry: a british-born geology professor named ernest schwarz. schwarz had arrived in south africa a year after gessert, working for the cape geological survey before becoming a professor at rhodes university. like others, he was impressed by the marine fossils and water-sculpted landforms he found while surveying the cape’s arid lands. in 1918, schwarz assured readers of south africa’s largest newspaper that the subcontinent was drying up and that without measures to increase its rainfall, white south africans would soon find themselves enveloped by an expanding kalahari. 57 most progressive farmers and                                                                                                                 53 ferdinand gessert, “über rentabilität und baukosten einer kunene-ableitung,” globus 85, no. 21 (1904), 339, 348. 54 gessert, “über rentabilität und baukosten,” 348-52. 55 h. paulsmeier, letter to the editor, south african agricultural journal 7 (jan.-july 1914), 737-8. 56 passarge, die kalahari, 664. 57 schwarz, “remedy for droughts,” johannesburg star, jan. 30 1918. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       89 government scientists denied that rainfall was declining in south africa, but much of the white population believed that it was.58 schwarz therefore found fertile ground for his ideas. a few months after his newspaper article appeared, he developed his argument in an academic paper he read before the south african association for the advancement of science – and then, in 1920, published a popular book on the subject.59 taking his readers on a tour of the african continent, schwarz sketched a picture of a large inland plateau that had once been abundantly watered by slow-moving rivers that fed extensive networks of lakes and pans. all this surface water had created higher precipitation levels and kept the land lush and green. in schwarz’s historical reconstruction of african hydrology, fastmoving coastal rivers that plunged from the plateau to the sea had, over time, lengthened themselves through erosion at their headwaters, “capturing” these slower rivers and draining away their water. the loss of massive quantities of interior surface water caused rainfall to decline. the outcome of these processes was the sahara and the kalahari – deserts that continued to expand. schwarz not only diagnosed the problem; he offered a solution: building weirs across the kunene and chobe rivers (the latter a major tributary of the zambezi), two of the “captured” rivers whose redirection had deprived inland lakes of their water source. diverting them into the kalahari would recreate those lakes and thus increase atmospheric humidity and precipitation. schwarz never acknowledged gessert or paulsmeier – something that greatly irritated the latter – but both supported schwarz, as did many other whites in southern africa over the course of three decades.60the schwarz kalahari thirstland redemption society was founded in 1933, five years after schwarz’s sudden death in senegal, and operated until the late 1940s; in response to public pressure, the south african government investigated the scheme three times in as many decades. schwarz had a brazilian counterpart. in the same month that schwarz published his newspaper article, luis mariano de barros fournier, a military engineer, presented a paper advocating for a river engineering scheme to change the climate of the sertão. fournier told brazil’s national society for agriculture that damming rivers and creating a massive inland lake in the impoverished and drought-prone region would vastly increase atmospheric humidity. this water vapor would condense over the surrounding mountains, he said, resulting in predictable rainfall in an area notorious for climatic fluctuation. like schwarz, fournier attempted to                                                                                                                 58 william beinart, the rise of conservation in south africa: settlers, livestock, and the environment (oxford: oxford university press, 2004), discusses the creation of a class of “progressive” farmers who largely agreed with the views of government scientists and other emerging “experts,” but overstates the extent to which an educated white population embraced expert opinion. for more on popular views of climate and environment among white settlers see meredith mckittrick, “talking about the weather: the language of environmental crisis in south africa, 1915-1945,” forthcoming in environmental history, jan. 2018. 59 ernest schwarz, kalahari: or, thirstland redemption (cape town: t.m. miller, 1920). 60 h.j.c. paulsmeier, “trocknet südafrika heute noch weiter auf?” in der kalaharisee (windhoek: john meinert, 1941). gessert wrote several letters to the south african magazine farmer’s weekly in support of schwarz. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       90 popularize his scheme in a 1920 book, although it never achieved the popularity of schwarz’s kalahari scheme.61 if fournier was aware of his counterparts in southern africa and elsewhere, he did not acknowledge them. but like them, he drew on a mixture of folk wisdom and scientific writing to justify his plans. people living in the sertão believed that their climate had become drier since settlement of the region had commenced in earnest in the early 19th century. this was commonly blamed on deforestation. but ideas about the influence of bodies of water had also entered popular consciousness. a spate of reservoir building in the 1860s, motivated by a need to create a more secure water supply, was followed in the early 1870s by historically heavy rains. in spite of the severe drought that followed several years later, many in the sertão linked those heavy rains to the construction of the reservoirs.62 fournier’s proposal that a large lake would increase the rainfall thus tapped into already existing ideas of reprecipitation. fournier gave popular ideas about the sertão’s climate a scientific foundation. like schwarz in africa, he described brazil’s geological history as one that had once been dominated by bodies of water. taking readers on a tour through the last 500 million years, fournier argued that what was now the sertão had been covered by what he called the “great lake” – one of several massive lakes in what is now south america. fournier described the gradual diminishment of these lakes as the andes formed and water drained away, referring to the process as an epic struggle between the continent and the sea – a struggle won by the continent. alluvial deposits from the newly formed mountains filled the lakebeds, leaving only the river courses.63 fournier cited “brückner’s law” on the continental origins of rain to explain the drivers of climate in the sertão, and he implicitly linked the drainage of these lakes to the sertão’s current aridity: “the rain depends mainly on the evaporation of the waters from the surface of the earth,” he wrote.64 both schwarz’s and fournier’s schemes were direct descendants of brückner’s and murray’s ideas. but they were also shaped by their knowledge of the sahara and its history. indeed, the sahara loomed in the background for virtually all settlers worried about the future of their arid environments. white settlers around the world seemed aware that the sahara was a relatively recent creation and had once been a well-watered grassland. in an era where long-term climate cycles were only beginning to be understood – and for the most part, only with reference to ice ages – the formation of the sahara had no obvious explanation. but whether its current condition was due to geological factors, as schwarz and passarge argued, or to mismanagement of its resources, as many french colonials believed, the sahara was a symbol of how semi-arid environments could become arid ones. schwarz told his readers that without human intervention                                                                                                                 61 luiz mariano de barros fournier, o problema das seccas do nordeste (rio de janeiro: villa boas and c., 1920), 18. 62 roger cunniff, “the great drought: northeast brazil, 1877-1880,” (phd diss., university of texas, austin, 1970), especially 106-7. 63 fournier, o problema, 27-8. 64 fournier, o problema, 14-5, 54. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       91 into southern africa’s climate, “the central supply for our rain will dry up entirely; desert conditions will spread until south africa will become a waste land like north africa.” 65 fournier indirectly referenced the sahara, proposing that “to conquer the desert it takes not just a drop of water; to conquer the desert it takes a cascade” and concluding “delenda deserto!” – destroy the desert, a direct invocation of the roman phrase “delenda est carthago”, urging the destruction of carthage.66 and the sahara itself remained the focus of climate engineering schemes to create reprecipitation, well into the 20th century. in october 1928, the queenslander newspaper of brisbane, australia, informed readers of a plan by american dwight braman to raise $50 million as part of a project to flood the sahara with mediterranean water. the resulting inundation would cover 10,000 square miles and create a shipping route deep into southern algeria, but “(t)he main purpose… is to affect climatic conditions and increase rainfall.” the article noted that braman was seeking a concession and had met with french officials.67 australian newspaper readers were interested in such distant reprecipitation schemes because they themselves had been toying with the idea for decades. a scheme to flood lake eyre in australia by diverting water from spencer gulf was suggested in the 1870s – and rejected by the parliament of south australia in 1883 as too expensive. nevertheless, the idea was repeatedly revived in the 1890s and early 1900s. a newspaper article in 1892 suggested: “the whole climate and character of australia from north to south may someday be destined to be thoroughly changed, turning what are arid deserts into a huge inland sea, surrounded by cultivated shores, and extending over hundreds of miles of now useless inhabited country.”68 the most well-known version of this scheme emerged forty years after brückner wrote his article on the origins of rain. j. j. c. bradfield, the engineer who built the sydney harbor bridge and other bridges and dams around the country, adopted the idea of refilling inland lakebeds to increase the precipitation in australia’s interior. bradfield invoked quayle’s work on the influence of irrigation and bodies of water on australia’s rainfall, although quayle himself had expressed doubts that reprecipitation would work in the arid interior.69 but bradfield wrote, “we can redeem the arid inland when we have acquired the common sense to store above ground the floodwaters which now sink into the sand and lose themselves, so that the sun can get to                                                                                                                 65 schwarz, kalahari, 178. 66 fournier, o problema, 76. 67 “flooding the sahara,” the queenslander, 11 oct. 1928, 4. the new york times also wrote about the scheme, the following year (27 april 1929, 5), noting that 100,000 square miles of land would be “reclaimed” and that the german herman sörgel had proposed a similar scheme after braman – this the well-known atlantropa scheme. (see lehmann, “changing climates,” ch. 3.) 68 charles stewart, “a possible australian inland sea,” brisbane courier 19 july 1892. 69 e.t. quayle, “possibilities of modifying climate by human agency, with special application to south-eastern australia,” proceedings of the royal society of victoria 33 (1921), 115-132. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       92 work, and evaporate the conserved water. the rainfall after refreshing the country will evaporate and fall again as rain.”70 bradfield’s ideas were publicized in a dramatic fashion by idriess, the popular australian writer. like his counterparts in arid environments around the world, idriess argued that changes in australia’s geomorphology had interrupted a virtuous cycle of continental reprecipitation and replaced it with a deadly one of desiccation. once-great mountain ranges that had attracted rainclouds from the north coast had eroded: “the diminished height of the ranges has produced a corresponding loss in rainfall.”71 idriess also embraced the idea of a self-perpetuating cycle. the dead heart was expanding, he argued: “(t)he curse of aridity is slowly but surely creeping out to good lands far away from it.” his solution was remarkably similar to those proposed for southern africa, north africa, and brazil: idriess imagined a boomerang-shaped chain of freshwater lakes across 600 miles of the australian interior, achieved by diverting rivers from the eastern queensland coast – “water running to waste” – and bringing them over the coastal ranges to the headwaters of the dry, inland-draining channels. “probably, regular rains would then fall over thousands of square miles of very dry country … i may be wrong, of course, but these results seem to be to be in accordance with natural laws.”72 the scheme continues to have its supporters, as tom griffiths and tim sherratt have demonstrated. in 2005, a professor asked whether a large lake in the center of the ground might “act like a giant humidifier, evaporating water that moist winds would then sweep across vast areas of the continent?”73 conclusion in 1937 a usda employee named benjamin holzman challenged the concept of a closed, local weather cycle. holzman, who worked in soil conservation and later as a climatologist, accepted a version of murray and brückner’s calculation that about 25% of precipitated moisture ran to the seas through direct runoff and underground channels while the rest was evaporated from land surfaces and bodies of water on the land. but he was more critical of assumption that the water evaporated from land reprecipitated as local rainfall. “the idea that the principal source of moisture of precipitation over land areas is derived from continental evaporation is held by a number of hydrologists, foresters, and others,” he wrote. yet “there have not been offered any substantial arguments that help to prove the contention that continental evaporation is genetically                                                                                                                 70 j. j. c. bradfield, “rejuvenating inland australia,” the walkabout july 1941, 12; see also j. j. c. bradfield, “restoring australia’s parched lands,” the australian quarterly 14, no. 1 (march 1942), 27-39. 71 idriess, great boomerang, 39. 72 idriess, great boomerang, 83, 212, 217-18. 73 quoted in tom griffiths and tim sherratt, “what if the northern rivers had been turned inland?”, in stuart macintyre and sean scalmer, eds., what if? australian history as it might have been (melbourne: melbourne university press, 2006), 253. history of meteorology 8 (2017)       93 associated with continental precipitation.” such a contention rested on a model of stagnant air currents; these, holzman pointed out, were quite rare.74 holzman then proceeded to lay out what was known about atmospheric circulation. most of the water vapor that came from land surfaces and their associated bodies of water was carried by air currents to the sea; if it reprecipitated anywhere, holzman argued, it was likely over the oceans. closed weather cycles simply did not exist.75 it was not atmospheric moisture, but the presence or absence of conditions for condensing it that affected rainfall. holzman was critical of schemes that sought to produce rainfall by increasing atmospheric moisture through various means, including impounding water. many of these had been based on assumptions that bodies of water would change air temperature and wind circulation, thereby ensuring that conditions for release of moisture also changed – but holzman argued that in the early 20th century, these assumptions had been largely based on conjecture about circulation patterns, which were poorly understood. beyond the temperate zone, however, the notion of the virtuous cycle – and its lifeextinguishing opposite – persisted. in southern africa, schwarz’s scheme was still debated in the press every time there was a drought.76 the government insisted it would not work, yet yielded to popular pressure and investigated it again in 1945. bradfield’s scheme continues to be revived periodically into the present day. the later iteration of these proposals claimed to account for the factors holzman had highlighted, such as wind and temperature shifts that might accompany the creation of new bodies of water. enthusiasm for evaporation-based climate engineering schemes had largely waned by the 1950s. but the sixty-year life of murray and brückner’s ideas about reprecipitation, largely forgotten in their place of origin but ricocheting around the colonial world, demonstrates the global circulation of meteorological ideas and the way that encounters with local environments informed those ideas and determined their longevity. it suggests new avenues of thinking about settler intellectual histories. most notably, historians have focused on the tendencies of settlers and colonial officials to blame indigenous inhabitants for environmental degradation and even climate change (as in the case of deforestation and its supposed impact on rainfall). but highlighting the supposed role of bodies of water in shaping climate demanded a different set of explanations for changes in precipitation – explanations that most often focused on changes in geomorphology that had no apparent human cause. the role of indigenous inhabitants, so often blamed for environmental degradation in colonial africa, looks very different in this context.                                                                                                                 74 benjamin holzman, “sources of moisture for precipitation in the united states,” usda technical bulletin no. 589 (oct. 1937), 11, 14. 75 holzman, “sources of moisture,” 13. 76 in 1948 daniel francis kokot, an engineer in the irrigation department, published a 160-page book in which he sought to refute schwarz’s scheme and the climatic assumptions underlying it. (an investigation into the evidence bearing on recent climatic changes over southern africa (pretoria: government printer, 1948). history of meteorology 8 (2017)       94 the long debate over reprecipitation and the climate of arid lands being settled by europeans also demonstrates some of the limitations of reading the history of meteorology and climatology “backwards,” by looking for the precursors of ideas that are now widely accepted. such methods remove scientists who appear to be visionaries from the context in which the totality of their knowledge was generated, and obscure significant realms of scientific and popular debate from historians’ view. this article traces an alternative genealogy of climate ideas. they are less easily integrated into a story of ever-more-accurate and verifiable knowledge, but they shaped events and popular opinion in their time, and echoes of them are with us today. acknowledgements i’m grateful to dagomar degroot and kathy olesko for initial suggestions as i began to research this piece, and to many other colleagues in the georgetown history department faculty seminar for comments on parts of this article. microsoft word 3) donnelly .docx history of meteorology 8 (2017)   54 redeeming belgian science: periodic phenomena and global physics in brussels, 1825-1870 kevin donnelly kevin.donnelly@alvernia.edu alvernia university introduction: a nation at the margins of science in 1864, at the age of 68, the renowned belgian astronomer, statistician, and all-around savant adolphe quetelet published a strange compendium on two topics which might seem to have little relation to one another: a history of belgian science and a survey of what quetelet called “periodic phenomena,” a wide-ranging survey of natural and meteorological data that he had been collecting for over three decades. the book, histoire des sciences mathématique et physique chez les belges, devoted most of its 500 pages to the former subject: the rise and fall of scientific progress in a region which had, since the middle ages, been the subject of division, stagnation, benign neglect, active exploitation, and little in the way of homogeny in language, ethnicity or religion. in his triumphalist narrative, quetelet explained that les belges had begun as “primitive” and “brave” people who were “far from having” the “intelligence” and “industry” of the later state.1 the reason for their rise, he argued, had been contact with foreign neighbors and that the “notable advance” of his country occurred because of the “many relations with foreign nations…which left their marks on our ancestors.”2 indeed, international collaboration in science was nearly synonymous with progress in histoire des sciences, as events as distant as the 100 years war demonstrated: when the king of france sought to take possession of belgian lands from phillip artevelede, quetelet claimed that the “agitation of spirits was extreme and not conducive to the development of science.”3 and so it went throughout the years, as internationalists like charles v, born in                                                                                                                           1 adolphe quetelet, histoire des sciences mathématique et physique chez les belges, new ed. (brussels: muquart, 1871), 18. all translations from the french are my own unless otherwise noted. 2 ibid., 43. 3 ibid., 50. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   55 quetelet’s hometown of ghent, led scientific advances while the disasters of the napoleonic wars brought ruin to his home region. as a general point, few would argue with quetelet that international collaboration in the sciences is best accomplished in times of peace, and quetelet was not the first nor the last belgian to make the case for internationalism in science.4 henri pirenne, the noted belgian nationalist historian, had in fact made the case that belgium was a “nation of borders,” which inevitably shaped the culture and ideas of the country.5 as an internationalist, quetelet was certainly no different from many other propagandists like humboldt and herschel in the heady years of nineteenth-century international collaboration. yet what makes this history so interesting is the plan quetelet appended to his history of belgian science: a 100-page programmatic and methodological treatise on collecting data on “periodic phenomena,” a topic broad enough to include shooting stars, meteorological events, terrestrial magnetism, wind and sea currents, and a handful of other natural phenomena. in fact, quetelet listed 12 “genres of observation” which had “occupied me since the beginning of my career,” none of which, it might be noted, was related to either classical astronomy or statistics, the two fields in which quetelet is best known today.6 though clearly important in retrospect, why was such work included as a capstone to, or even justification of, belgian science? what connected wind-speed calculations and temperatures readings in the 1850s to the disastrous invasions and occupations that marked the history of the low countries? why did quetelet not champion belgian accomplishments in fields such as astronomy, which he taught, or physics and mathematics, topics he focused on as an editor of an international journal?7 and, perhaps most interestingly for the later development of meteorology, how did a figure like quetelet, an early laplacian determinist trained in the french positivist tradition, come to see the inchoate field of “periodic phenomena” as the best hope for a belgian scientific revival? this paper will argue that the answer to these questions can be found in the project to collect data on periodic phenomena itself, particularly within the geographical, historical, and political contexts of the low countries. as quetelet learned in attempting to create a nascent scientific movement in belgium, the data of periodic phenomena, and what he would later call global physics, was far better suited for a small and politically marginalized country than a field like astronomy, which required significant financial resources and international clout in order to make new discoveries. quetelet, who had studied and taught in institutions created during both the                                                                                                                           4 for a good overview of internationalism in science during periods of war, see elizabeth crawford, “the universe of international science, 1880-1939,” in solomon’s house revisited: the organization and institutionalization of science, ed. tore frängsmyr (canton, ma: science history publications, 1990). for later belgians who focused on internationalism, see alex wright, cataloging the world: paul otlet and the birth of the information age (oxford: oxford university press, 2014) and lewis pyenson and christophe verbruggen, “ego and the international: the modernist circle of george sarton,” isis 100, no. 1 (2009): 60-78. 5 henri pirenne, la nation belge (brussels: guyot, 1899), 3. 6 quetelet, histoire, 377. 7 in the 1820s, quetelet had published astronomie populaire and astronomie élémentaire based on his lectures at the athénée de bruxelles and had been the editor for 11 years of correspondance mathématique et physique. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   56 era of hapsburg benevolent neglect and the far more destructive napoleonic occupation, sought smaller projects for the new nation of the united kingdom of the netherlands (1815-1830) and later belgium (created in 1830). as will be seen, the geographic location of such a project was ironic, as quetelet’s earliest research came from brussels, a city that while geographically situated in the center of europe was often at the margins of scientific life.8 it was here that quetelet inverted traditional methodological imperatives in his efforts to create a national scientific project founded on internationalism. though much work remains to be done on quetelet’s project to assemble data on periodic phenomena, the focus here will be on research quetelet conducted in brussels as well as a selection from a wide range of methodological papers spanning over three decades.9 as will be seen, the only consistency in this work is quetelet’s insistence on international collaboration. for example, in histoire des sciences, the last item on quetelet’s list of 12 “genres of observations” was what he called a “united project of weights and measures across different countries.” such a plan was indeed accomplished at the 1853 international maritime conference in brussels, a meeting now recognized by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) as the moment when coordinated meteorological observations began.10 reporting a decade after the event to the académie royale de belgique on the conference’s success, quetelet left little doubt about its importance for brussels. the goal of the conference was nothing less than to “perfect meteorology and global physics and to search for the laws which rule the great natural phenomena,” and quetelet believed it a great triumph that the meeting was being held in a city that had contributed so little to previous science, one just kilometers from his birthplace in ghent.11 though dreamed up by the american naval officer matthew maury, the meeting was held in brussels because of the respect quetelet had gained for international collaboration, and he was unanimously elected president of the conference for his indefatigable efforts to bring researchers together.12 it was an endorsement of the new science that quetelet had been cultivating for decades – decentralized, multifocal, and international – and one that had its ultimate roots in the particularities of the low countries and brussels. at a celebration of his life 200 years later, quetelet was credited by a fellow belgian with “extracting us from mediocrity and elevating us to international                                                                                                                           8 on the larger move away from “classical probability,” see lorraine daston, classical probability in the enlightenment (princeton, nj: princeton university press, 1988), gerd gigerenzer, lorenz krüger, and mary s. morgan, ed., the probabilistic revolution, volume 1: ideas in history (cambridge, ma: the mit press, 1987), ian hacking, the emergence of probability: a philosophical study of early ideas and probability, induction and statistical interference (cambridge, uk: cambridge university press, 1984), and theodore porter, trust in numbers (princeton, nj: princeton university press, 1995). 9 the best source for this work remains “bicentenaire de la naissance d’adolphe quetelet (1796 – 1874) fondateur de l’observatoire de bruxelles,” bulletin astronomique de l’observatoire royale de belgique 11, no.1 (1996): 1-114. 10 hervé le treut et. al, “historical overview of climate change science,” in climate change 2007: the physical sciences basis, ed. s. solomon et. al (cambridge, uk: cambridge university press, 2007), 100. 11 adolphe quetelet, “sure la météorologie et la conférence maritime tenue à bruxelles,” bulletin de la académie royale de belgique 20 (1853): 29. 12 adolphe quételet, notice sur le capitaine m. f. maury, associé de l'académie royale de belgique (brussels, 1874). history of meteorology 8 (2017)   57 recognition.”13 periodic phenomena, it seems, did provide the antidote to the instability and stagnation that had hindered previous belgian science. a focus on data collection for periodic phenomena at the brussels observatory can help contribute to the early history of meteorology by demonstrating how the historical weakness of belgium – the lack of a powerful and unified nation-state – became a strength for the new science. indeed, in contrast to the vision in histoire des sciences, many of the most important statistical insights from this period came about because of the chaotic early years of the observatory and the marginal status of the catholic low countries. earlier visions of international scientific collaboration in astronomy were dominated by the powerful observatories in greenwich and paris, but meteorology and climatology were sciences that demanded international collaboration and could not be judged by just one or two locations. indeed, in the middle of the nineteenth century, the overabundance of star charts and ephemeris led many people to question the need for so many locations of scientific reportage.14 simon newcombe at the us naval observatory, for example, complained that most star catalogues produced by observatories were “unnecessary,” but that would likely carry on due to “national pride.”15 as j.a. bennet has noted of the era’s observatory fever: “utility alone could scarcely have excused the duplication of effort brought about by more and more observatories.”16 observatories then were at the same time powerful sites of nationalism and ostentation,17 and quetelet imagined periodic phenomena as the means through which a marginal observatory could contribute to the new sciences. hence his enthusiasm in combining periodic phenomena with the historical legacy of belgium in histoire des sciences: the 1853 international maritime conference – a perfect marriage of bureaucracy and statistics – was where the peripheral city of brussels could become the center of the meteorological world, a first step in the creation of what has been called “infrastructural globalism” on which much of meteorology and climate science were built.18 while recent work in “relocating” the sciences has focused on localities far from europe,19 relocating meteorology to the geographical center of the western european metropole may provide a corollary contribution: a suggestion that the work at the brussels observatory and the                                                                                                                           13 robert andré, "adolphe quetelet, académicien," in actualité et universalité de la pensée scientifique d’adolphe quetelet: actes du colloque organisé à l'occasion du bicentenaire de sa naissance (brussels: académie royale de belgique, 1997), 23. 14 see the many complaints found in kevin donnelly, “on the boredom of science: positional astronomy in the nineteenth century,” in the british journal for the history of science 47, no. 3 (2014): 479-503. 15 simon newcombe, reminiscences of an astronomer (boston: houghton mifflin, 1903), 62. 16 j. a. bennett, “the english quadrant in europe: instruments and the growth of consensus in practical astronomy,” journal for the history of astronomy 23 (1992), 2. 17 for the ways in which many observatories overcame this limitation, see charlotte bigg, david aubin, and h. otto sibum, eds., the heavens on earth: observatories and astronomy in nineteenth-century science and culture (durham, nc: duke university press, 2010). 18 paul n. edwards, “meteorology as infrastructural globalism,” in osiris 21 (2006): 229-250, 230. for the expanded arguments, see paul n. edwards, a vast machine: computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming (cambridge, ma: the mit press, 2010). 19 kapil raj, relocating modern science: circulation and the construction of knowledge in south asia and europe, 1650-1900 (new york: palgrave macmillan, 2007). history of meteorology 8 (2017)   58 subsequent “infrastructural globalism” created in belgium helped to push meteorology away from its deterministic roots, where laplacian laws and positivistic philosophies of science had been a burden for early meteorologists.20 a recent history has claimed that determinism functioned as a “chimera” that had inhibited the field because “there [was] no superhuman forecasting demon with unlimited observational power and unlimited dynamical knowledge.”21 one of the best recent histories of meteorology similarly described the “passing away of the belief in the determinacy of atmospheric behavior” as “momentous” for the science.22 in what follows, i hope to show one way in which the determinism problem was eroded: rather than imagining periodic phenomena as a secondary feature of a pre-determined atmosphere, quetelet’s work in brussels helped to see it as autonomous phenomenon. it was not coincidental, i argue, that this movement came from outside the major capitals of european science. in tracing how the unique dynamics of bruxellois data helped to foster a new form of international collaboration while subsequently helping to challenge meteorology’s determinism problem, i begin with quetelet’s earliest work on periodic phenomena which he directed from his position as royal astronomer at the brussels observatory. though the observatory was a great triumph, some of quetelet’s most important ideas on causation came while he was waiting out construction delays, bureaucratic wrangling, and the 1830 revolution that gave birth to modern belgium. for close to a decade, quetelet was in fact forced to look to demographic statistics in brussels instead of astronomical data, a formative period that would later shape his thinking on periodic phenomena. the second section then examines quetelet’s work in physique du globe, where he sought to separate meteorology from the more rigid laplacian sciences. notably, quetelet began to make these distinctions in response to the practical needs of his observatory and demographic statistics as much as any deeper philosophical considerations or lessons from astronomy. rather than the direction one might imagine, where meteorological insights were built from reflection on astronomical conditions, quetelet inverted the positivistic arrow, using social data to influence his thinking on the weather, which in turn led him to divorce it from the movements of the heavens.23 in the third section, i return not only to the international maritime conference of meteorologists in 1853, but another conference held the same year in brussels: the first international statistical conference. most observers at the time believed the future of meteorology lay in the replication of astronomical work, and few at either conference would have                                                                                                                           20 david aubin has particularly noted how the observatory helped redefine the idea of science. see david aubin, “a history of observatory sciences and techniques, ” in astronomy at the frontiers of science, ed. jean-pierre lasota (dordrecht, 2011): 109-21, 115. 21 james rodger fleming, inventing atmospheric science: bjerkens, rossby, wexler and the foundation of modern meteorology (cambridge, ma: the mit press, 2016), 25. for how mathematicians worked out this problem, see ian roulstone and john norbury, invisible in the storm: the role of mathematics in understanding weather (princeton, nj: princeton university press, 2013). 22 frederick nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the 20th century (new york: academic press, 1995), 188. 23 as porter has shown, quetelet’s work was part of a larger movement in which many of the physical and natural sciences adopted the tools of the social sciences, rather than the other way around. theodore m. porter, the rise of statistical thinking 1820-1900 (princeton, nj: princeton university press, 1986). history of meteorology 8 (2017)   59 recognized the importance of the statisticians for the future of meteorology. in the conclusion, i suggest that even quetelet, one of the few men in europe who could speak with authority on both scientific bureaucracy and probability models, had little idea how important the combined work was for the meteorology of the future. even his triumphant histoire des sciences mathématique et physique chez les belges could not have predicted the eventual outcome: that his adopted hometown of brussels would become one of the principal locations for the work of something called climate science. waiting for the observatory: the methodological lessons of the brussels city registry though simple geography might suggest that belgium would emerge as a central location for european science, quetelet’s initial plans to create an international standard for global measurements – a plan necessary to modern meteorology and climate science – began at the margins. though the nearby university of louvain had been a center of significant research in the early modern era, the city of brussels had been absent for most of the major significant scientific developments in the seventeenth and eighteenth century, and quetelet’s history of his region’s numerous struggles since the middle ages has largely been confirmed by subsequent histories. the pioneering collection the scientific revolution in national context, for example, makes almost no mention of brussels or the low countries.24 neither do histories of the region itself spend much time on science.25 histories of meteorology do often acknowledge quetelet’s contributions, but because he worked prior to the “unified” era of twentieth-century meteorology, he is usually relegated to brief pre-histories of one element of meteorological thought, where the “organizational transformation” of observational work took place.26 even when he began to secure government support in the 1830s, he was forced to travel to paris, london, and several german states in order to see how observatories worked.27 though quetelet had good reason to project a limited view of scientific success in order to secure government patronage for his many institutional projects, his vision of the brussels region as a backwater for science is largely confirmed by most of his contemporaries and later historians. in spite of this history, quetelet’s own contributions to belgian meteorology have been well established due to the centrality of the observatoire royale de bruxelles, his primary office of data collection for much of the 1840s and 1850s. as fabian locher has recently shown,                                                                                                                           24 while parts of modern-day belgium are mentioned, the french-speaking region is largely absent even from harold j. cook, “the new philosophy in the low countries,” in the scientific revolution in national context, ed. roy porter (cambridge, uk: cambridge university press, 1992): 115-149. 25 e. h. kossmann, the low countries, 1780-1940 (oxford: clarendon press, 1978). the more recent work by paul arblaster, a history of the low countries, 2nd ed. (new york: palgrave macmillan press, 2003) barely mentions science beyond vesuvius. 26 nebeker, calculating, 11-22. 27 liliane wellens-de donder, “les premières voyages scientifiques de quetelet et la fondation de l’observatoire royale de bruxelles,” bulletin astronomique de l'observatoire royale de belgique 11 (1996): 95-104. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   60 quetelet’s work after the observatory was finished was concerned almost exclusively with the field of physique du globe, especially terrestrial magnetism, meteorology, and other earth sciences that fell under the rubric of periodic phenomenon.28 a mid-twentieth century report on quetelet concluded that while the belgian was best known as an astronomer and statistician (a point which remains true today), his “work in meteorology…was certainly superior to his work in mathematics and astronomy.”29 stephen stigler has also sought to describe quetelet’s physique sociale as something closer to “social meteorology” than social physics, with meteorology simply replacing physics or astronomy as the model science.30 and while many recent works that deal with the history of the science begin with the meteorological synthesis of the 1950s and 1960s, when the data collectors, theorists, and forecasters made “meteorology…a unified, physics-based, and highly computational science,” the importance of nineteenth century work has been highlighted in “pushing data” into the forefront.31 in what might only be a slight overstatement, one history of quetelet’s meteorological work concludes that “for close to 50 years, quetelet was the personification of climatology and meteorology in belgium.”32 while historians are right to emphasize the importance of brussels and belgium in the instauration of a new era of data collection, less attention has been paid to the particular historical circumstance of this region in creating a vision of science as a large-scale collaborative datacollecting effort.33 in particular it is worth noting that many of the concepts of data collection and causation quetelet developed were done prior to the observatory being built, a time when he was forced to make do with social and demographic data. such a daunting international project – the standardization of tables and measurements across nations – in fact had quite humble beginnings. beginning in 1832, after nearly a decade of obstinate government administrators, faulty equipment, and the occupation of his office by revolutionaries waving the tri-color, quetelet had to wait nearly a decade to finally occupy his offices at the newly constructed observatory.34 in this section, i show why this history matters for quetelet’s interrelated thinking on data-collection, causation, and his methodological approaches to periodic phenomena and global physics.                                                                                                                           28 fabian locher, “the observatory, the land-based ship and the crusades: earth sciences in european context, 1830-50,” the british journal for the history of science 40, no. 4 (2007): 491-504. 29 louis dufour, “quelques considération sur l’œuvre météorologique de a. quetelet,” in ciel et terre 64 (1948): 58-71, 58. 30 steven stigler, “adolphe quetelet: statistician, scientist, builder of intellectual institutions,” in actualité et universalité de la pensée scientifique d’adolphe quetelet: actes du colloque organisé à l’occasion du bicentenaire de sa naissance (brussels: académie royale de belgique, 1997): 47-61. 31 nebeker, calculating, 3. 32 gaston r. demarée, “adolphe quetelet (1796 – 1874): précurseur du réseau belge d’observations climatologiques,” in “bicentenaire de la naissance d’adolphe quetelet (1796 – 1874) fondateur de l’observatoire de bruxelles,” bulletin astronomique de l’observatoire royale de belgique 11 (1996): 41-51, 41. 33 an exception to this general rule is theodore m. porter, “the mathematics of society: variation and error in quetelet's statistics,” british journal for the history of science 18 (1985): 51-69. porter specifically locates quetelet’s thinking in the context of the political revolution. 34 henri van boxmeer, “le rapport d’adolphe quetelet sur la formation d’un observatoire dans les provinces méridionales du royaume des pays-bas,” in “bicentenaire de la naissance d’adolphe quetelet (1796 – 1874) fondateur de l’observatoire de bruxelles,” bulletin astronomique de l’observatoire royale de belgique 11 (1996): 107-113. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   61 when quetelet began thinking about an observatory in the early 1820s, he was often coy in explaining the project to king william i of the united kingdom of the netherlands (in which the modern country of belgium existed from 1815 until 1830). appealing to william’s concerns about the legitimacy of his rule, quetelet initially claimed the institution would aid in helping the catholic low countries modernize to the level of their northern neighbors.35 to make this argument, he stressed the importance of the dominant positivist science of astronomy, explaining to william that a proper account of the fixed order of the stars would lend a similar harmony and stability to his reign.36 yet in his arguments with government ministers, quetelet encountered significant obstacles to a plan for an observatory focused on astronomy. as one minister wrote to quetelet in 1825, citing the costs of such a project: “what great discoveries can one reasonably hope to make in astronomy? can one claim to make a better catalogue of the fixed stars than we currently have? for these reasons, i do not know if science would profit much from the erection of a great observatory.”37 quetelet’s response was to claim that while it may be true that astronomy promised few new discoveries, the true extent of the possibilities of an observatory could only be learned after it was built; the institution would have to precede the scientific justification.38 quetelet’s creative explanation proved true in the long run, and he was able to get approval for funding the observatory in 1825, but the observatory proved a failure in both its astronomical and symbolic functions.39 not only did the belgian revolution of 1830 end william’s reign, but the largest observatories in paris, greenwich, and königsberg had by this time already started to dominate the reigning field of positional astronomy. yet rather than the hindrance quetelet imagined, the tumultuous era of 1820s and 1830s belgium proved surprisingly fertile for quetelet’s thinking on statistics and data collection, as construction delays, a lack of financing, and the 1830 belgian revolution meant he had to look elsewhere for data. in fact, rather than theorized in the modern confines of a first-rate observatory, quetelet’s first conclusions about lawlike behavior emerged from the only place where he knew statistics could be found: the birth entries in the brussels city registry.40 here, quetelet discovered surprising and revelatory connections between the progressions of the seasons and human procreation, the power of averages, and the importance of large-scale data, ideas he would later apply to periodic phenomena.                                                                                                                           35 the majority-protestant netherlands had just incorporated the catholic provinces of belgium, which had been part of the hapsburg netherlands for centuries before being conquered by the french in the napoleonic wars. for the full story of belgium’s long history of occupation, see pirenne and kossman. 36 for the best account of quetelet’s efforts, see a. collard, “le centenaire de la création de l'observatoire royale de bruxelles,” ciel et terre 42 (1926): 209-23 and m. a. demoulin, “adolphe quetelet, fondateur de l'observatoire royale de belgique,” bulletin astronomique de l'observatoire royale de belgique 2 (1935), 1-3. see also chapter 3 of kevin donnelly, adolphe quetelet, social physics and the average men of science (pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press, 2016). 37 collard, “le centenaire,” 215. 38 ibid., 216. 39 dufour, “quelques considérations.” 40 adolphe quetelet, “mémoire sur les lois des naissances et de la mortalité à bruxelles,” nouveaux mémoires de l'académie 3 (1826): 496n. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   62 in one notable example from 1826, after just a few tables of data, quetelet noted that births in brussels were at their highest in february and lowest in july, year after year, and the progression between the peaks and troughs were continuous. not only did this seem to indicate a powerful connection between the seasons and human action, but the data could also be made to fit a normal sine curve, one as consistent as fourier’s for heat transfer. quetelet had met fourier in paris three years earlier, but quetelet’s main “discovery” here was to be the rare mathematician and astronomer looking over bureaucratic statistics with an eye towards patterns; those usually looking at the data were administrators, and those who knew the sinusoid wave were usually engaged in other projects. even more, when he looked at the mortality records in the same registry, they were identical, following the same progression from february to july. as he explained in a paper first delivered to the académie royale, the numbers confirmed that, in quetelet’s mind, “the laws which rule” in nature can be “extended” onto the “human species.”41 while the modern researcher might note that this correlation of birth and death rates might rely heavily on the high mortality for children after their birth, for quetelet it was confirmation that the actions of the weather and people were tied to each other through natural laws.42 it was a first step in approaching the laws of the weather from the perspective of human behavior rather than as a second-order feature of astronomical laws. therefore, in disseminating his “instructions pour l’observateurs des phénomènes périodique,” one of the first methodological texts for studying meteorology, quetelet explained why the collection of local data from observatories was necessary for studying a global system: the brussels data had indicated that large-scale data revealed hidden patterns. because periodic phenomena were ultimately based on the earth’s “annual orbit,” the former method of observing these phenomena “individually” was no longer sufficient: observers “had generally neglected to study (periodic phenomena) in their entirely, or to search to find the laws of dependence and correlation which existed between them.”43 it was a vision of nature that was positivist in its determinism but also practically helpful for the director of a small observatory. the “instructions” contained a vision that looked inward and outward, as each piece of data could both explain, and be explained by, a global system. unlike astronomy, where more than a few positional readings would be superfluous, periodic phenomena meant collecting data on a larger scale. what was needed then was both simple in its articulation yet daunting in practice: “a system of simultaneous observations, established on a grand scale.”44 by this point, quetelet had created a seeming rationale for the widespread collection of meteorological data, but had not yet articulated anything like an autonomous climate. instead, he still envisioned a hierarchical world of astronomical, meteorological, and social data. for example, the first lines of “des phénomènes périodiques,” published nearly 30 years after the “instructions,”                                                                                                                           41 ibid., 496. 42 ibid., 500. 43 adolphe quetelet, “instructions pour l’observation des phénomènes périodiques,” in bulletin de l’académie royale des sciences, des lettres et des beaux-arts de belgique 9 (1842): 65-96, 65. 44 ibid. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   63 in fact asserted only the importance of the lessons of astronomy, opening with the claim that “the movement of celestial bodies” was the key to understanding all periodic phenomena. in particular, it was the sun that stood as the prime mover of nearly all phenomena on earth. as quetelet wrote of the periodic phenomena of daily climate: “this star in effect seems to be their protector and the principal agent in their life.”45 in particular this was due to the influence of daylight, which quetelet believed to be “perhaps the most important phenomenon.”46 finally, he insisted: “one can see in astronomy, above all in the observations of the two great heavenly bodies which strike our attention, which contain the origins of all which merits occupying us in our studies.”47 quetelet’s positivism and faith in astronomy seemed to be set. yet the lessons quetelet had learned while collecting social data continued to influence his writing on periodic phenomena. while the climate might ultimately depend on the movement of the sun, quetelet cautioned his prospective global observers in the earlier “instructions” to note that there were two classes of periodic phenomena, a distinction he drew from his earlier work in statistics: “one pertaining to the physical and natural sciences and “the other which falls under the domain of statistics and concerns mankind living in his social state.”48 such a distinction between what we might now call the natural and social sciences might seem bizarre in the context of a document meant to train people how to record wind speeds and temperatures, but it is a reminder that quetelet’s work in collecting meteorological data was not simply about conducting second-order astronomy. quetelet in the 1840s was still best known for investigating population statistics, and his landmark 1835 work sur l’homme was exclusively dedicated to this latter “domain” of periodic phenomena. though the wealth of data provided in that two-volume study was a minor sensation in england and germany, quetelet oddly dubbed social statistics irrelevant to his project to study the climate: “natural periodic phenomena,” he noted, “are in general independent of social periodic phenomena.”49 yet in spite of this assertion, as the next section demonstrates, quetelet did import these concepts into his work on natural phenomena. though his institutional priorities and education in astronomy and mathematics may have led him to distance his more professional observatory work from his early dabbling in social data, the lessons from the latter continued to endure. inverting the positivist hierarchy: the creation of a global physics as seen in the previous section, the particular constraints of belgian politics and history had forced quetelet to approach meteorology and periodic phenomena from a unique methodological                                                                                                                           45 adolphe quetelet, “des phénomènes périodiques en général,” in bulletin de l’académie royale des sciences, des lettres et des beaux-arts de belgique 17 (1864): 229-326, 247. 46 ibid., 235. 47 ibid., 253. 48 quetelet, “instructions,” 68. 49 ibid. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   64 perspective in europe. rather than be able to direct a grand observatory, and study simultaneously astronomical and meteorological data, quetelet for a decade mined the available collections of brussels and belgium population statistics to discover his first laws and theories about large sets of data. on the one hand, it was a success, as his (in)famous ideas of the “average man,” the quetelet index (later renamed the body mass index), and social physics were all in place by 1835. it was these projects that garnered quetelet the later title of “father of statistics” and where most of his current renown resides. yet as also seen in the previous section, quetelet abandoned social data as soon as he could, retaining many features of the positivism he had learned in the napoleonic schools of his youth and continued to see astronomy as the highest form of science. in this section, therefore, i examine how this apparent paradox manifested itself in the creation of a new project called global physics, an early vision of an independent climate that grew out of quetelet’s work in periodic phenomenon and social data. by examining several papers from 1840 to 1870, i investigate how, in spite of occasional deterministic rhetoric, quetelet’s ideas about global physics relied as much on theories gleaned from the social data of brussels as those from astronomical theory and observation. in fact, by 1870, it will be seen that quetelet was explicitly using social physics as a guiding metaphor for global physics, upending the position that weather must be studied as a function of astronomical laws. to see just how interconnected quetelet’s natural and social data were, it is important to note that one of his first statements on what we might call climate – and what he called global physics – occurred in a series of letters dedicated to the applicability of probability theory to “the moral and political sciences.” just four years after the “instructions,” quetelet stressed the importance of periodic phenomena and expressed a powerful vision of a global weather system in a letter to prince albert entitled “de causes variables périodique.” his topic was the relationship between “the march of the seasons” and human actions. of all the natural phenomena, quetelet noted, “the most remarkable were certainly those which obeyed the laws of periodicity.”50 so strong was this law, that “the succession of the seasons and the days” was able to “modify simultaneously the entire globe and all the living beings.” this was not merely the grand total of singular actions; rather, quetelet claimed that “periodic phenomena constituted a common life outside of the individual life.” this “succession of phenomenon” demonstrated “the most striking harmony” and it was only necessary for the eye “to seize it in its entirety” rather than in isolated glimpses.51 here was the early indication of a completely interdependent climate which could apply the lessons of astronomical work to all periodic phenomena on earth and one as positivist in spirit as the introduction to “des phénomènes périodiques.” in spite of the rhetoric of harmony, the letter was concerned far less with what astronomy could explain about periodic phenomena than what periodic phenomena could tell mankind about itself. the letter was included as part of quetelet’s lettres sur la théorie des probabilités aux                                                                                                                           50 adolphe quetelet, lettres à s.a.r. le duc régnant de saxe-cobourg et gotha: sur la théorie des probabilités, appliquée aux sciences morales et politiques (brussels: hayez, 1846), 203. 51 ibid., 205. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   65 sciences morales et politiques, and quetelet made sure to point out the relevance of periodic phenomena to the intellectual and moral acts of mankind: it is the singular condition of mankind and its societies that the virtues and vices, the disorders of the heart and of intelligence and the political commotions, are influenced more or less by the distance from the sun to the equator and the elevation of this star above our horizon!52 here again was a form of climactic determinism that might seem worthy of montesquieu, yet quetelet’s boldest language betrayed a much subtler form of thinking about the relationship between mankind and climate developed elsewhere in his work. global physics in fact shared many of the same qualities as social physics, quetelet’s science of man developed 15 years earlier. the foundation of quetelet’s science, sur l’homme, had already emphasized that the actions of society could be modified by governments because the actions of human beings could be separated into “natural” and “perturbing” causes, which meant that the environment in which people lived could be altered to avoid crimes, poverty or even disease.53 quetelet had been supported in this by work in france to link cholera to population density, where public hygienists had shown that reducing the number of people living in one house could severely cut the risk of contracting a disease.54 virtues and vices might be influenced by the position of the sun, but the study of mankind revealed that man could intervene between himself and the climate, and that societies were not fated to a certain kind of politics or morality based on latitude. the concept of natural and perturbing causes drawn from physique sociale found their way into global physics in several works, but quetelet discussed them most at length in a little-known 1853 work on periodic and non-periodic phenomena, where he explained how temperature was “determined” by “constant” and “variable” causes, synonyms for the natural and perturbing forces he had used earlier.55 as quetelet noted, if the angle of the sun “alone regulated the temperatures of the year, each day,” we would see the same temperature each year on the same date.56 yet the fact that average temperatures changed significantly from year to year required investigation beyond the constant cause of the earth’s position relative to the sun and into the “thousands” of “perturbing forces” that caused such fluctuations. while such a project to disentangle all of the causal links of the weather seemed impossible, quetelet was buoyed by the ability of probability theory in physique sociale to reduce the collective impact of perturbing forces. quetelet had                                                                                                                           52 ibid. 53 adolphe quetelet, a treatise on man and the development of his faculties (edinburgh, 1842), 6. 54 kevin donnelly, “social physics or social disease: villermé, quetelet and cholera 1832,” in royalists, radicals, and les misérables: france in 1832, ed. eric martone (newcastle: cambridge scholars press, 2013). 55 adolphe quetelet, “mémoire sur les variations périodiques et non périodiques de la température,” mémoires de l'académie royale de belgique 28 (1853), 1. 56 ibid., 5. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   66 investigated supposedly individual behavior like suicide in the 1830s, where he realized that suicide could neither be the result of a social law (natural) nor a simple collection of individual acts (perturbing). similarly, temperature fluctuations and periodic phenomena could be explained through a combination of “natural” and “perturbing” causes. all perturbing causes, which are by themselves neither constant nor periodic when considered individually, sometimes act in one sense or another, but their effects become fixed over time and disappear in the calculation of the general average.57 here, quetelet was able to show that large-scale changes in weather and other natural phenomena could not be second-order features of astronomical laws. as with apparently free human acts like childbirth and suicide, the arbitrary nature of the weather could be normalized though calculating “probable error,” and quetelet speculated that “one could see that non-periodic variations could proceed with remarkable regularity.”58 what this meant in practice was that any investigation of global physics meant that hundreds or thousands of additional “causes” must be sought to explain regular features like temperature increase or decrease. quetelet even used the bell curve to explain how law-like behavior in the weather could mimic the hidden patterns in human behavior. global physics, one of the first nineteenth-century articulations of something like a worldwide climate, could be interrogated using the same tools as social physics. as seen below, quetelet would expand on this idea, eventually making social physics into the model for global physics. the strongest influence of social physics on the articulation of an independent climate system can be found in quetelet’s1861 magnum opus on climate, sur la physique du globe, which brought together nearly everything he had done in his career. quetelet began by making his first distinction between meteorology and global physics – subjects that had often been interchangeable in previous works, but which were not “sufficiently separated” – because they required “different methods of observations.” after noting that there are higher and lower parts to the atmosphere, quetelet defined meteorology as “phenomena which occur in the (lower) part (of the atmosphere) which is constantly agitated” while physique du globe concerned the “phenomena known to our earth and to the higher part of the atmosphere.”59 what this meant in practice is that the messy and localized work of recording and predicting the weather could be separated from the more global and rigorously law like behavior of global physics, and while the daily records of meteorology maintained an importance, it was largely excluded now from global physics.60                                                                                                                           57 ibid., 6. 58 ibid., 9. 59 adolphe quetelet, sur la physique du globe (brussels: hayez, 1861), 7. 60 such a distinction may push back the earliest dates for a “professional climatology” by a few decades. edwards, for example sees 1883 as the year in which “climate could also be understood as purely physical phenomena, independent of other ecosystems.” edwards, a vast machine, 63. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   67 given modern categorizations, it might seem odd that quetelet began physique du globe with temperatures, a subject that had previously belonged to the messier world of meteorology. yet quetelet had acquired a generation’s worth of temperature data in brussels since the founding of his observatory, and the data seemed to reveal patterns of behavior and regularity that might fit more easily under the lofty title of global physics. to begin with, the temperature continued to behave in ways that resembled fourier’s sinusoid waves for heat transfer and the fluctuation of births in brussels. the average temperature difference in brussels had been largest in january, but gradually and uniformly “diminished until august and september.” in fact, “the averages of the minimum and maximum of each day, as well as each month, for 25 years” showed similar regularity.61 here, quetelet displayed his knowledge of probability theory, categorizing deviations from the average as “error,” as in a chart which showed that there was more error to be found in winter than in summer. as transformative as this work was, quetelet reserved his most remarkable comments for two papers published in the last years of his life. in “loi de périodicité de l’espèce humaine,” quetelet in fact completely inverted the methodology of 30 years prior, arguing that research on climate should begin by studying man: “variations in temperature often follow exactly the same laws as those found in human height.”62 if this were not enough to install man as the measure (or at least the metaphor) for all things, quetelet had two years earlier written that “it is easy to see at the present time that material laws are infinitely more changed by the intervention of man in general” than by individuals.63 what exactly quetelet meant by “material laws” is not exactly clear – it is not a common usage in his work – but even so, the comments above would seem to be a complete repudiation of the positivistic vision of passive human beings subject to the timeless movement and intensity of the sun’s rays. whereas at first he had been astonished to see that the data of the brussels city registry looked like a sine wave, now he implored his researchers to study the weather as if it were as pattern-like as human behavior. though simple inconsistency and muddled thought can never be ruled out, it does seem that the influence of social data – particularly that collected in belgium – influenced quetelet’s thinking on global physics, and helped his fellow researchers envision the weather as a more complex problem than merely second-order astronomy. as seen in the next section, however, quetelet’s own goals in establishing global physics were far more provincial than such lofty claims for his ideas might indicate.                                                                                                                           61 quetelet, sur la physique du globe, 10. 62 adolphe quetelet, “loi de périodicité de l’espèce humaine,” bulletin de l’académie royale des sciences, des lettres et des beaux-arts de belgique 30 (1870): 358-368. 63 adolphe quetelet, statistique “progress des travaux statistiques” bulletin de l’académie royale des sciences, des lettres et des beaux-arts de belgique 28 (1868): 192-207, 196. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   68 brussels revived: bureaucrats and statisticians at the 1853 international maritime conference and the international statistical congress though quetelet’s comments and instructions on how to envision the climate may have contributed to re-conceptualizing climate – his articulation of an independent global physics occurred at the height of meteorology’s determinism problem – this was never his main concern. rather, global physics offered a way for quetelet to connect his observatory to the worldwide network of scientists in a way that would have been impossible in astronomy. as he had consistently argued, the path forwards for national redemption in science was through international coordination. though the route from his early advocacy for an observatory to redeem belgian science had taken many paths, he was always driven by a desire to integrate his home country into international institutions. in this section then, i show how quetelet’s desire to promote belgian science led to a powerful confluence of government administrators and statisticians in his hometown of brussels, resulting in the first agreements on international standardization of temperatures, a crucial moment in the history of climate science. it may have been a coincidence that quetelet’s overlapping concerns – institutional bureaucracy and numbers – would combine in 1853 to such a powerful effect, but it was no accident that both groups came to brussels. in fact, the roots of both conferences went back over a decade. in defending his global physics in 1840, as well as justifying his own work at the observatory, quetelet had offered a fairly prophetic vision for the future sciences of climatology and meteorology. he claimed that global physics “has become its own world. it will take centuries of observations to elucidate the hundreds of phenomena already found within it, to measure with all the required precision, and to discover the laws which rule it.”64 in the same report, quetelet also told government officials that “there is perhaps no science which demands association more imperatively than meteorology.”65 two years later, quetelet repeated the importance of “being in contact with the scientific world in as many ways as possible,” in order to “execute a vast research plan” on global physics.66 here was the guiding methodology of global physics – not an idealized positivist vision of how science operated but a practical plan to justify the existence of an observatory in a marginal scientific nation. getting the right numbers was not easy, however, and quetelet expressed just how important collaboration would be in his 1842 “instructions” on periodic phenomena: the observations demanded are so numerous and so fatiguing and they require the collaboration of so many people that it has hardly been possible to find more than                                                                                                                           64 adolphe quetelet, “rapport décennal des travaux de l’académie royale,” bulletin de l’académie royale des sciences, des lettres et des beaux-arts de belgique 7 (1840): 271-342, 12. 65 ibid., 17. 66 adolphe quetelet, “rapport sur l’état de l’académie en 1842,” bulletin de l’académie royale des sciences, des lettres et des beaux-arts de belgique 9 (1842), 5. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   69 four or five observatories in europe that can conduct them with a full understanding.67 the “instructions” would help, but more formal coordination of observers would be necessary for advancements in periodic phenomena. the answer came a decade later in 1853 in two large gatherings held in brussels: the international maritime conference and the first statistical congress. in the history of meteorology, the maritime meeting has been noted an as an important, if ultimately failed, attempt to create an international system of measurements: it had helped establish the united states as a leader in climate science but was quickly overtaken by more mature and coordinated international groups.68 yet contemporary impressions were more sanguine. matthew maury, the controversial organizer of the conference, had good things to say about the receptiveness of the belgian government (as well as quetelet, who was named president of the conference after maury declined), and the conference showed that it was possible for state governments to assemble for matters other than war or peace. quetelet later noted that at this time “the people are united in sending their representatives for science, as they had in politics.”69 the goal of the conference was simple: “to perfect meteorology and global physics and to search out the laws which rule these great phenomena.”70 to do this, maury had hoped to create a large system of coordinated temperature measurements. he had initially hoped that they would discuss land observations as well as oceanic observations, but reported back home that countries had only agreed to use their navies.71 understanding that the “vast surfaces of the seas” could be broken into sections through lines or “meridians” and “parallels,” maury suggested that the ideal would be to place “a fixed observer, charged with collecting observations of hourly temperatures” in each “compartment.” of course, observatories of the sea would be nearly impossible, so maury conceded that “fixed observatories” were not absolutely necessary and could be replaced by “floating observatories” supplied by the different navies of the world.72 the coordinated observations could give “knowledge of the direction of the wind at different times of the year, the currents, the depths of the seas, their temperatures, etc.” such a program allowed maury to comment that “we gather here in a spectacle which one will vainly hope to find a historical precedent.”73 the process of rigorous international collaboration on global physics that quetelet had predicted a decade earlier had begun.                                                                                                                           67 quetelet, “instructions,” 55. 68 james rodger fleming, historical perspectives on climate change (oxford: oxford university press, 1998), 42 and treut, “historical overview,” 100. 69 quetelet, “sur la météorologie,” 29. 70 ibid. 71 maury’s comments on the conference can be found in the “introduction” to matthew maury, explanations and sailing directions to accompany the wind and current charts (harris, 1858): iii-xii. 72 quetelet, “sur la météorologie,” 29. 73 ibid., 30. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   70 agreement was one thing, coordination another. just as quetelet had provided detailed guidance for observing periodic phenomena, the larger aims of the conference were to correct the mistakes of observers and impose more rigorous accounts of data collection. after 15 days of deliberation, some preliminary steps were agreed upon. primarily, “instruments must be compared and standards recognized in a way that error can be determined with exactitude.” this had not been a problem for the loosely connected meteorologists in europe, but national armed forces had a habit of independence, and the conference organizers recognized that mass coordination of data and error correction would be a slow process. therefore, minimum guidelines were set so that naval observers would note “the position of the ship, the current, the level of the barometer, the temperature of the air and water one time per day; the strength and direction of the wind three times per day (4 am, noon, and 8 pm); and the variations of the (magnetic) needle when it can be observed.” even this basic level would “permit in their whole a system of global and oceanic observations” which “covered the entire surface of the globe in a vast scientific network which will not let any phenomenon of importance pass.”74 through the maritime conference, quetelet had helped to spread the idea of a system of vast observations meant to reduce error, reproducing his early instructions on periodic phenomena on a grand scale. aside from quetelet, however, none of the delegates to the first significant conference on meteorology would have been described primarily as savants. in reviewing the list, the eclectic group of thinkers and professionals were, like maury, either “national officers” of their respective navies or administrators and institutional directors. the makeup contrasted sharply with the delegates to the other large meeting in brussels in 1853: the congrès internationale de statistique. here, quetelet noted the opposite: there were no bureaucratic representatives to be found, only savants.75 quetelet had first experienced the importance of conferences while traveling in germany, and after co-founding the statistical section of the british association, promoted the idea of an international meeting at the great exhibition in london in 1851. in particular, the support of prince albert – to whom quetelet had dedicated physique du globe and composed his lettres sur la probabilités – helped quetelet organize the 1853 meeting. quantitative statistics had taken off in england, and quetelet lauded the “rank assigned to statistics in the most advanced country in the world” and “the tribute which has been accorded this science.”76 the 1853 statistical congress was only the first step in relocating the international statistical establishment to brussels, much of which remains there today. after the third statistical conference was held in london, it was agreed that the belgian commission central de statistique (ccs) “would be invited…to receive and to coordinate the documents which will be sent by the different parties of europe.” the director of the ccs, xavier heuschling, noted that the first congress in brussels essentially served to unify international statistics, and that “the sciences of                                                                                                                           74 ibid., 32. 75 adolphe quetelet, congrès international de statistique (brussels: hayez, 1873), 3-5. 76 adolphe quetelet, “ “sur la statistique générale des différents pays,” bulletin de l’académie royale de belgique 8 (1841), 14. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   71 observation only form themselves slowly.”77 probability and statistics at this point still bore the mark of their lowly origins in the sciences of man, and despite the conference participants like whewell, farr, herschel, babbage, and quetelet, the conference said little about the natural sciences, instead creating three sections: 1) general statistics, which covered basic population figures, mortality, etc.; 2) production and consumption; and, much to quetelet’s delight, 3) intellectual and moral statistics. quetelet’s vision of a science of man based on rigorous observation and quantification was taking place, even if that level had yet to be attained in meteorology. in contrast to the struggles of the international maritime conference, the statistics meeting was a tremendous success. russia pledged full support from the “imperial government,” while savants from across the continent chimed in about the possibility of statistics joined with governmental support. it was noted that “men of science” were equal to those of “a different title: administrative statisticians.” a professor ackersdyk of utrecht remarked that “the people who occupy themselves with statistics are not ordinarily specialists in a particular branch, but rather embrace science in its entirely.” m. denziger, professor of statistics in würzburg, agreed that the “grandiose” interdisciplinary conference represented “the spirit of our age” because “we attend still to something more than statistics.” nothing would be possible without “national bureaus of statistics” denziger admitted, and the head of the statistical commission in lyon claimed he was “very convinced that we can only have good statistics with the support of the agents of governments.”78 in a capstone to the meeting, which must have pleased quetelet, a professor from the university of göttingen identified the model country for the intermingling of government and statistics: “belgium has so left other countries in the distance in matters of official statistics that it is with complete reason that the initiative for the beginning of the general interest in statistics was taken by this country.”79 he hoped the “revolutions of this congress” would give a “powerful impulse” to future meetings of the world’s scientists, a hope that has been more than met in the past 150 years. in comparing the attendees and the meeting records, the dual 1853 conferences reveal several surprising aspects of early meteorological and climatic research. the maritime conference, ostensibly organized to discuss a science that had been perceived as just one step removed from astronomy, attracted few scientists, was discussed largely at the level of bureaucracy, and led to almost nothing besides an agreement to meet more often. the statistical congress, however, including the once-controversial idea of intellectual and moral statistics, held the attention of some of the greatest scientific minds of nineteenth-century europe, and developed a far more organized and significant plan of international organization. the use of probability, essential to modern modeling techniques of climate science today, also took form in the series of conferences based on the brussels meeting and helped the young science of quantitative statistics overtake qualitative                                                                                                                           77 xavier heuschling, “congrès internationaux de statistique, rapport sur la belgique, 1855-1867,” bulletin de la commission centrale de statistique 11 (1868), 3. 78 ibid., 7-10. 79 ibid., 12. history of meteorology 8 (2017)   72 statistics as the preferred path for the social sciences. to conclude from this limited though instructive confluence of ideas, the great hopes for a meteorology derived from astronomical methodology and theory had been overshadowed by the methods for a quantitative science of man that only twenty years earlier had not even existed. the very statistical concepts quetelet had sketched out in brussels in the 1820s and 1830s, ideas he likely never would have developed had he been given a first-rate observatory, turned out to be the most enduring. in helping organize the two foundational conferences in meteorology and statistics in brussels, quetelet demonstrated that government support for international collaboration of scientific data was essential and that his own country had a prominent role to play. not only had his work in global physics helped to define a new field of research, but he had redeemed the scientific reputation of his country as well. conclusion the dual conferences and the resulting international collaboration may best explain quetelet’s decision to link the history of the belgian people to the statistics of periodic phenomena described in the introduction to this paper. the decision to focus on these observations at the exclusion of the great positivistic sciences of astronomy, physics or chemistry had indeed brought brussels back into the center of european scientific life. what quetelet may not have realized, however, is that his home region may have in fact benefited because of its many struggles. the revolution and construction delays in creating the observatory had led him to the brussels city registry for data, where he first started formulating the statistical “laws” that would lead to international prominence. the superfluous nature of his observatory in astronomy also meant that quetelet had to look elsewhere for data, which first tied him into the international meteorological networks. finally, the always perilous state of belgian and bruxellois political stability led him to link his country’s fortune to others through science, which resulted in two major conferences taking place in the same year in his adopted hometown. and throughout it all, quetelet’s many ambitious and fledgling efforts to collect data led to seeing climate as independent, the near opposite of the goal he had initially set out to accomplish. quetelet’s program to separate a global climate from the messy business of daily meteorology and the methodological imperatives of astronomy, as well as his borrowings from an inchoate science of man sketched out hastily with data from the brussels data registry, might seem notable. but it might also be argued that this work was as a historical curiosity, one rightfully bracketed out from traditional histories of meteorology. yet quetelet was far from being isolated from other europeans studying climate, and his impressive number of contacts and simple geographic location made him among the most connected men of science of the nineteenth century. quetelet had spent decades at the head of the observatory, edited the continental publication correspondance mathématique et physique, was secrétaire perpetual of the académie royale de belgique, and was a member of hundreds of international organizations. such a wide-ranging project to study climate was of course not the result of a single individual, but quetelet’s plan to history of meteorology 8 (2017)   73 submit meteorological and statistical data to the judgement of international bodies is indicative of the kind of science often practiced in belgium, one that took on profound consequences in the larger metropoles of european science and polity.80 quetelet’s work in creating international statistics – driven largely by the meteorological data from the brussels observatory – has been noted as being “attentive to the spirit of the age,” and eric brian has linked the “invention” of “international science” to the desires for stability in europe.81 brian has further highlighted the importance of belgian statesman like quetelet and xavier heuschling in the foundation of administrative statistics, noting that the international conferences of the kind began in brussels may have been more formative for the discipline than the technical and mathematical work done by galton and others.82 whatever the weight of his contributions, quetelet’s work is a reminder that the formulation of the idea of a global climate was not simply an application of higher-order scientific methodologies to a new field of research, nor was it a simple cumulative process of collection and evaluation of data; rather, it occurred in part because of the practice of overturning long-held methodological imperatives through the importation of new analytical tools developed to make sense of administrative data. it was not always the intellectual challenges of understanding a climate system or the unimpeachable impress of nature that caused quetelet to look towards the first international gathering of meteorologists, or to envision a global physics based on social physics. instead, quetelet developed his ideas of global physics in tandem with his plans for large collaborations of scientists to rescue belgian science, and it would be a mistake to view collaborative, global, data-driven science as being a fully-formed idea that was then shared with the larger scientific community. historians of science have long stressed that institutions and ideas develop simultaneously, and quetelet’s work on global physics and his development of the 1853 meetings are just a few examples of many on how theory can emerge from praxis, though an ironic one given how far brussels was from the center of scientific discourse. that it allowed scientists to imagine a new relationship between mankind and the climate in the nineteenth century makes the story all the more interesting.                                                                                                                           80 for the importance of the belgian region and the statistical conferences on internationalism, see nico randeraad, “the international statistical congress (1853-1876): knowledge transfers and their limits,” european history quarterly 41, no.1 (2011): 50-65, john l. heilbron, nicholas guilhot and laurent jeanpierre, “toward a transnational history of the social sciences,” journal of the history of the behavioral sciences, 44, no.2 (2008):14660 and jean-guy prévost and jean-pierre beaud, statistics, public debate and the state, 1800-1945: a social, political and intellectual history of numbers (london: pickering & chatto, 2012), 49-62. 81 zoltan kenessey, “quetelet and the beginning of international statistics,” in actualité et universalité de la pensée scientifique d’adolphe quetelet: actes du colloque organisé à l'occasion du bicentenaire de sa naissance (brussels: académie royale de belgique, 1997), 155 and eric brian, “transactions statistiques au xixe siècle,” actes de la recherche en sciences sociales, 145 (2002): 34-46, 36. 82 eric brian, “statistique administrative et internationalisme statistique pendant la seconde motié du xixe siècle,” histoire & mesure 4 (1989): 201-224. corresponding author(s) xiaoping xue, tsinghua university, xiaopingxue2001@gmail.com an enduring vision: qingdao observatory and the transnational meteorology in modern china, 1898–1937 xiaoping xue introduction in 1898, german geologist ferdinand von richthofen (1833–1905), on behalf of the german empire (1871–1918), proposed a blueprint for the northern chinese coastal city of qingdao, emphasizing the need for an observatory dedicated to meteorological, geomagnetic, and astronomical observations. based on his fieldwork in china, richthofen envisioned this observatory as a scientific hub, working in collaboration with scientific stations from other states to establish observational networks across shandong province and throughout china. with submarine communication cables around qingdao, it could also emerge as the “central meteorological observatory of the chinese-japanese sea” (centralen wetterwarte für die chinesisch-japanischen meere).1 although richthofen’s vision was rooted in german colonial ambitions, it was imperial japan (1905–1945), the republic of china (roc, 1912– 1949), and later the people’s republic of china (prc, 1949–) that realized and expanded upon his plan. 1 ferdinand von richthofen, shantung und seine eingangspforte kiautschou (d. reimer, 1898), 270-271. although the primary focus of qingdao observatory was meteorology (broadly encompassing weather, climate, and other atmospheric sciences), as richthofen noted, it also undertook observations in other scientific fields. therefore, this article primarily addresses meteorology, while also discussing the observatory’s work in astronomy, geomagnetism, and oceanography. mailto:xiaopingxue2001@gmail.com history of meteorology 12 (2025) 2 no other meteorological observatory in east asia underwent as turbulent a history of sovereignty transitions as qingdao observatory (fig.1, in german, kiautschou observatorium; in japanese, 青島測候所; in chinese, 青島觀象台; hereafter referred to as “the observatory”). it was also one of the most important observatories in modern east asia.2 from 1898 to 1914, the german government, military, and scientists invested significant efforts into its construction. following germany’s defeat by japan during the siege of qingdao (1914), the japanese took control of the observatory. notably, when world war i (1914–1918) ended and the chinese government in beijing requested the return of sovereignty over the observatory from japan, japan refused and forcibly retained japanese technicians in qingdao. this resulted in thirteen years of diplomatic negotiations and joint observations between the two states. during the second sino-japanese war (1937–1945), the observatory was seized again by the japanese military until 1945, when the chinese nationalist government regained control of qingdao. five years later, the chinese communist party (ccp) took over the observatory. fig. 1. “das observatorium in tsingtau” [the observatory in qingdao], photograph published in 1912. courtesy of the german federal archives (bundesarchiv). although the history of qingdao observatory reflects the shifting political regimes and power discourses of imperialism, colonialism, and nationalism from 1898 to 1937, this paper does not adopt the framework of imperial or colonial science of specific states, which focuses on science’s contributions to state enterprises.3 nor does it align with the previous debates 2 shen bingbing, zhang jing, yan huiling, and zhang min, “qingdao guanxiangtai de lishi yange yu gongxian yanjiu, 1898-1949 [qingdao observatory’s historical development and contribution, 1898-1949],” qixiang keji jinzhan, no.4 (2016): 44-50, cnki. 3 this kind of research often focuses on cases involving meteorological observatories and meteorologists. on the history of observatories established by britain, france, and germany in asia, see p. kevin mackeown, early china coast meteorology: the role of hong kong (hong kong university press, 2011). wu yan, science, interest and expansion of europe: zi-kawei observatory (1873–1950) in the context of the territorial expansion of european modern science (china social sciences press, 2013). gerhard kortum, “the naval observatory in tsingtau (qingdao), 1897-1914, german background and influence,” in ocean science bridging the millennia: a spectrum of historical accounts, selim morcos et al. (unesco, 2004), 257-261. iwo amelung, “das observatorium in qingdao—koloniale meteorologie in ostasien [qingdao observatory—colonial meteorology in east asia],” in deutschland: globalgeschichte einer nation [germany: a global history of a nation], ed. andreas fahrmeir (c.h. beck, 2020), 435-440. on meteorologists and technicians, see masumi zaiki and togo tsukahara, “meteorology on the southern frontier of japan’s empire: ogasawara kazuo at taihoku imperial university,” east asian science, technology and society: an international journal 1 (2007): 183-203, https://doi.org/10.1215/s12280-007-9010-9. fiona williamson, “just doing their job: the hidden meteorologists of colonial history of meteorology 12 (2025) 3 surrounding scientific sovereignty,4 which emphasize exclusivity and nationalism. instead, it critically employs a transnational perspective and integrates actor network theory (ant) to examine how meteorological materials, scientists, and various local practices, such as observational techniques and data exchange, manifested and evolved across both spatial and temporal dimensions.5 the transnational meteorology of qingdao engages with the regional context of china’s national formation, highlighting the co-contributions of multiple states, such as china, japan, and korea.6 furthermore, to move beyond the limitations of the transnational perspective that “see nation-states – homogeneous, simple, and rigid – as the only actors,”7 and to address the unexpected moments of internal power inconsistencies during the sino-japanese comanagement of qingdao observatory, as well as the sustained scientific collaborations across three regimes, this paper applies network as an alternative approach.8 by foregrounding the agency of local scientists and scientific practices, this study responds to the calls by historians of science to relocate meteorology.9 building on scholarly reflections on network theories,10 it also brings back discourses and unequal power relations into the analysis while focusing on the role of shifting peripheries and centers in shaping multiple scientific networks.11 importantly, writing this connected story does not imply that science is independent of imperialism, colonialism, or nationalism. rather, these seemingly exclusive and opposing power dynamics and ideological expressions converge along the path of transnational science hong kong, c. 1883-1914,” the british journal for the history of science 54 (2021): 341-359, https ://doi.org/10.1017/s0007087421000182. most recently research, see mark e. frank, “national climate: zhu kezhen and the framing of the atmosphere in modern china,” history of science (2023): 1-29, https://doi.org/10.1177/00732753231157453. 4 wang zuoyue, “saving china through science: the science society of china, scientific nationalism, and civil society in republican china,” osiris 17 (2002): 291-322, https://doi.org/10.1086/649367. hiromi mizuno, science for the empire: scientific nationalism in modern japan (stanford university press, 2008). to the extent that the history of qingdao observatory is acknowledged, attention has been almost exclusively directed toward the diplomatic negotiations and differing significance of the observatory’s scientific sovereignty for japan and china after 1922, see liu xiao, “understanding sovereignty through meteorology: china, japan, and the dispute over qingdao observatory, 1918-1931,” annals of science (2023), https://doi.org/10.1080/00033790.2023.2231465. ren haojie, “research on the modern qingdao observatory (19221937)” (m.a. thesis, qingdao university, 2023). 5 on actor network theory, see bruno latour, reassembling the social: an introduction to actor-network-theory (oxford university press, 2005); michel callon, “some elements of a sociology of translation: domestication of the scallops and the fishermen of st brieuc bay,” in power, action, and belief: a new sociology of knowledge?, ed. john law (routledge, 1986), 196–233; john law and john hassard, eds., actor network theory and after (blackwell, 1999). 6 prasenjit duara, the global and regional in china’s nation-formation (routledge, 2009). 7 song nianshen, making borders in modern east asia: the tumen river demarcation, 1881–1919 (university press of cambridge, 2018). 8 the most relevant is bruno latour, the pasteurization of france (harvard university press, 1988). 9 roy malcolm macleod, “on visiting the ‘moving metropolis’: reflections on the architecture of imperial science,” historical records of australian science 5 (1982): 1-16, https://doi.org/10.1071/hr9820530001. david n. livingstone, putting science in its place: geographies of scientific knowledge (university of chicago press, 2003). kapil raj, relocating modern science: circulation and the construction of knowledge in south asia and europe, 1650-1900 (palgrave macmillan, 2007). martin mahony and angelo matteo cagliotti, “relocating meteorology,” history of meteorology 8 (2017): 1-14, http://meteohistory.org/scholarship/history-of-meteorology/history-of-meteorology-volume-8-2017/. 10 for example, see david bloor, “anti-latour,” studies in history and philosophy of science 30 (1999): 81-112, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0039-3681(98)00038-7. martin müller, “assemblages and actor-networks: rethinking sociomaterial power, politics and space,” geography compass 9 (2015): 27-41, https://doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12192. 11 my thinking here has been inspired by kenneth pomeranz’s research on the economic history of shandong. i argue that, beyond canals and maritime trade, science offers another possibility for transforming and constructing new center-periphery orders. see pomeranz, the making of a hinterland: state, society, and economy in inland north china, 1853–1937 (university of california press, 1993). moreover, fiona williamson’s research points out that meteorology in british malaya was not a case of knowledge flowing from the center to the periphery. on the contrary, meteorology operated as a series of widespread nodes. see williamson, “an ocean apart: meteorology and the elusive observatories of british malaya,” isis, 114 (2023): 687-899, https://doi.org/10.1086/727680. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 4 and multiple modernities. it was the demand for overseas expansion by colonial empires that drove german scientists to distant east asian frontiers to establish and manage qingdao observatory. yet, the call of the civilizing mission also encouraged them to assist in the development of china’s meteorological enterprise. subsequently, japanese scientists, with a pan-asianist interpretation of science, justified japan’s colonial interests in china and asserted japan’s aspiration to lead asia in the international scientific arena, seeking equality with europe. these two distinct forms—imperialism and colonial modernity—fuelled the anti-colonial nationalism of later chinese scientists in the latter half of the republican period. at the same time, germany and japan each integrated qingdao into their colonial scientific networks, which continued to overlap, aligning with maritime communication networks between china and japan, as well as with china’s local and national scientific networks. more broadly, these scientific networks were also global, connected individuals, institutions, and nations, and facilitated flows and interactions of scientific knowledge, personnel, equipment, and practices. in turn, they intervened in and shaped the global scientific system. the observatory also served as china’s maritime frontier and the colonial periphery of german and japanese empires, while also being the centre of the “chinese-japanese sea” and a hub within multiple scientific networks, frequently shifting its identity within a complex spatial order. this fluid positioning nurtured a unique path to scientific modernization in modern china and east asia. these layered and overlapping networks at local, national, regional, and global levels are also synchronic, highlighting temporal continuity in qingdao’s multiple scientific networks. since the 1990s, an increasing number of modern chinese historians have transcended the 1949 divide, demonstrating how the early prc inherited political and economic legacies from both japan and the nationalist government, involving substantial scientific and technological specifics.12 recent studies in the history of meteorology have also recognized the institutional, organizational, and personnel continuities in meteorology before and after the second sino-japanese war.13 this research provides a more detailed local case study of meteorology, further enriching this growing academic focus. notably, the story of qingdao is connected not only to the times of science and technology, but also to the science and technology of time. in addition to meteorology, qingdao observatory was the first scientific institution in china to conduct independent time measurement and provide time signaling services. it maintained these measurement activities and continually improved their accuracy under different regimes. additionally, my research is also inspired by recent attention to verticality in the political geography and the history of science. this vertical turn aligns with ant’s emphasis on the agency of no-human actor, shifting focus beyond the static land territories of modern states to include the agency of no-human materialities, particularly the environmental forces of oceans, atmospheric phenomena, and planetary systems, thereby expanding our 12 for instance, see william c. kirby, “continuity and change in modern china: economic planning on the mainland and on taiwan, 1943-1958,” australian journal of chinese affairs 24 (1990): 121-141, https://doi.org/10.2307/2158891. joseph w. esherick, “war and revolution: chinese society during the 1940s,” twentieth-century china, no.1 (2001): 1-37, https://doi.org/10.1353/tcc.2001.0007. koji hirata, “made in manchuria: the transnational origins of socialist industrialization in maoist china,” the american historical review 126 (2021): 1072-1110, https://doi.org/10.1093/ahr/rhab351. victor seow, carbon technocracy: energy regimes in modern east asia (university of chicago press, 2021). 13 fang-yu liu, weather and warfare: chinese meteorology during the second sino-japanese war (republic of china history and culture society co., ltd., 2023), 237-253. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 5 understanding of territorial governance in modern nation-states.14 the verticality is closely tied to the multi-scalar nature of atmospheric science.15 the visibility of such global environmental objects, which span specific geographic and environmental scales, more clearly reflects the interventions of human political order and technological infrastructure. in the case of qingdao observatory, its production and dissemination of atmospheric knowledge, research on the sea between china and japan, and observations of longitude and celestial movements, all contributed to the exploration of this dynamic, vertical environment and revealed the governing powers employed scientific understanding of the natural environment. through its continuous knowledge production, meteorological reporting, and timekeeping services, the observatory not only contributed to the formation of multiple scientific networks but also profoundly influenced daily life and socio-economic structures centered around qingdao, shaping new communities.16 drawing on a diverse range of multilingual historical sources, including administrative documents, local archives, scientific reports, personal memoirs, and newspapers from china, germany, and japan, this article bridges the temporal divides across the german, japanese, and chinese periods of rule to explore their transnational, multi-dimensional history in qingdao. this narrative transcends the binary framework of western versus non-western perspectives, or colonialism versus anti-colonial nationalism. rather, i argue that it was the competing state powers—advancing qingdao’s and modern china’s meteorological modernization amid political fractures and diplomatic confrontations—that collectively wove multiple networks and jointly created new communities. this process serves as a microcosm of how, in modern east asia, diverse regimes were integrated through local scientific practices and subsequently contributed to the global scientific enterprise. germans greet the world in east asia, 1898–1914 today, qingdao is the largest city in shandong and the third-largest city in northern china, just behind beijing and tianjin. in stark contrast, as late as the 19th century, this seaside city was geographically peripheral, and also played a marginal role in other respects: it lacked favorable agricultural conditions, and the empire did not appreciate its commercial potential as a seaport, let alone its capacity for advanced education and science. the canal that connected qingdao to the shandong hinterland had become unnavigable. qingdao’s advantage in maritime trade was further undermined by the newly opened treaty port chefoo (present-day yantai), located nearby.17 nevertheless, france, russia, and germany began to take notice of qingdao and its nearby jiaozhou bay, recognizing its military and trade value, 14 “special issue: verticality in the history of science,” ed. wilko graf von hardenberg and martin mahony, centaurus 62(2020). andy hanlun li, “volumising territorial sovereignty: atmospheric sciences, climate, and the vertical dimension in 20th century china,” political geography 111 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2024.103106. 15 in the case of dynamic climatology in austria/austro-hungarian, deborah r. coen demonstrates how scientists engaged in diverse interpretations and reflections on the concept of “scale.” see coen, climate in motion: science, empire, and the problem of scale (university of chicago press, 2018). on discussions on “scale” and atmospheric science in asia, see fiona williamson and vladimir janković, “a question of scale: making meteorological knowledge and nation in imperial asia,” history of meteorology, 9 (2020): 1-9, https://meteohistory.org/ojs/index.php/journal/issue/view/1. 16 one example is the impact of hong kong observatory on the formation of hong kong’s “inter-port mercantile community,” see marlon zhu, “typhoons, meteorological intelligence, and the inter-port mercantile community in nineteenth-century china,” (ph.d. dissertation, binghamton university, 2012). 17 klaus mühlhahn, herrschaft und widerstand in der “musterkolonie” kiautschou, interaktionen zwischen china und deutschland, 1897–1914 [domination and resistance in the “model colony” qingdao, interactions between china and germany] (r. oldenbourg verlag, 2000), 38-67. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 6 and attempting to seize control of it. ultimately, in 1897, the german navy occupied qingdao, forcibly pressuring the qing dynasty into leasing it to germany for 99 years.18 as the minister of imperial colonial office (reichskolonialamt), bernhard dernhurg (1865–1937) believed that germany’s overseas colonial ambitions were inseparable from science and technology, which he referred to as “the most important auxiliary science” (die wichtigste hilfswissenschaft).19 in its effort to transform qingdao into the german empire’s “model colony” (musterkolonie) in east asia, german scientists undertook a series of environmental surveys and built scientific infrastructure there. in 1897, during his investigation of jiaozhou bay, german hydrologist georg franzius (1842–1914) stressed the need to learn from the 1896 disaster, in which the german ship iltis was wrecked near chefoo during a typhoon. he recommended the construction of port infrastructure to defend the coastline against typhoons and other meteorological disasters.20 subsequently, captain moritz deimling (1868–1905) led a survey team to conduct scientific observations of qingdao to inform future planning. this advance team formed the foundation of qingdao observatory, a meteorological and astronomical station located on the qingdao coast, which officially began weather and climate observations in june 1898 and provided storm warnings to ships docked in the port. a meteorological substation was later established in licun.21 undoubtedly, the establishment of the observatory served germany’s colonial interests,22 but it also reflected another ambition—the human determination to transform nature—and, as richthofen noted, the goal of fostering substantial scientific communication.23 unlike the role of german science in south asia as part of “a shared european project,”24 qingdao observatory exemplifies a broader scope of global scientific collaboration, involving both western and non-western actors. when planning the observatory, richthofen had already considered the geography of meteorological services in china. while british hong kong observatory (hko) investigated typhoons and french zikawei observatory in shanghai (zikawei) conducted meteorological and geomagnetic studies, they still lacked generalized, systematic, and reliable meteorological work. he argued that a sophisticated meteorological observatory in northern china would fill the gap.25 the preparation for the observatory also received support from other european countries. scientists from zikawei arrived in qingdao to assist the germans in building the 18 there has been considerable research on the colonial history of qingdao in german occupation period. for a representative study, see mühlhahn, herrschaft und widerstand in der “musterkolonie” kiautschou. for recent english-language works on the economic development of qingdao and shandong during this period, see fion wai ling so, germany’s colony in china: colonialism, protection and economic development in qingdao and shandong, 1898–1914 (routledge, 2019). 19 bernhard dernburg, zielpunkte des deutschen kolonialwesens: zwei vorträge [objectives of german colonialism: two lectures] (1907), 11, koloniale sammlungen [colonial collections], universitätsbibliothek frankfurt am main [frankfurt university library] (ks/ubf). 20 georg franzius, kiautschou: deutschlands erwerbung in ostasien [qingdao: germany’s acquisition in east asia] (schall & grund, 1898), 100, heidelberger historische bestände [heidelberg historical literature]. 21 moritz deimling, die vermessung des deutschen kiautschou-gebiets: darstellung der methoden und ergebnisse mit 11 kartenanlagen [the surveying of the german qingdao territory] (verlag von g. reimer, 1901), 5-6, 24-25, ks/ubf. 22 as lewis pyenson pointed out, exact sciences interacted closely with german imperialist strategies. see pyenson, cultural imperialism and exact sciences: german expansion overseas, 1900–1930 (lang, 1985), 247-295. however, pyenson’s view that qingdao observatory declined after germany’s departure is clearly one-sided. see pyenson, cultural imperialism and exact sciences, 270. 23 ferdinand von richthofen, shantung und seine eingangspforte kiautschou, 271. 24 moritz von brescius, german science in the age of empire: enterprise, opportunity and the schlagintweit brothers (cambridge university press, 2019), 5. 25 ferdinand von richthofen, shantung und seine eingangspforte kiautschou, 270-271. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 7 observatory.26 alongside this, deimling adopted the british methods of latitude and longitude measurement, successfully positioning qingdao for the first time on the global map.27 upon the observatory’s establishment, both hko and zikawei became its collaborators, regularly sharing observational data and exchanging technical personnel.28 the observatory’s continually-improved weather forecasting and harbor infrastructure further stimulated the development of qingdao’s commerce and tourism industries.29 meanwhile, german scientists actively collaborated with scientific institutions from non-european powers, including japan and the qing dynasty. facing inland china, the observatory established 10 subsidiary stations, exchanging information with stations in nine inland cities such as jinan, taiyuan, and kaifeng. toward the pacific, it maintained communication with meteorological stations in tokyo, the ryukyu islands, korea, taiwan, and manila.30 as bruno meyermann (1876–1963), a german astronomist and the observatory’s first director, described, the observatory possessed all the meteorological data for east asia.31 in addition to its meteorological functions, the observatory specialized in geomagnetic studies and time measurement, placing great emphasis on technical training. in geomagnetism, it collaborated with observatories worldwide to study the propagation of geomagnetic disturbances.32 in time service, qingdao joined the international time bureau in paris, regularly transmitting time signals to the international community.33 regarding the training of technical personnel, german scientists attempted to collaborate with the germanchinese university in qingdao to offer courses in meteorology and astronomy. meyermann expressed the hope that, even if germany’s lease ended, the observatory could become china’s national meteorological observatory.34 later, while helping the roc in establishing the central observatory in beijing, the german governor of qingdao articulated a similar vision: as a teaching institution, the observatory could remain connected to chinese universities.35 as richthofen envisioned, they hoped that qingdao would become a scientific center, spreading modern technology across china.36 although germany’s assistance to china’s meteorological enterprise reflected the discourse of the civilizing mission and served as a justification for its colonial endeavors, the efforts to connect china and other asian meteorological stations also positioned qingdao observatory as a knot integrating them into germany’s colonial meteorological network. german court poet ernst von wildenbruch (1845–1909) once praised this distant observatory on foreign shores as an aide to seafarers, and as a means for the german people to “greet the 26 letters from chevalier to oskar truppel (october 9, 1901), “kiautschou.-observatorium” (ko), rm3/6997, bundesarchiv militärarchiv in freiburg [german federal archives the department. military archives] (barch/ma). 27 moritz deimling, “die vermessung in kiautschou [the surveying in qingdao],” marine-rundschau 10 (1899): 446-447, ks/ubf. 28 letters from zikawei observatory to qingdao observatory (september, 17, 1902), ko, rm3/6997, barch/ma. 29 the 1911 second quarter work report of qingdao observatory, ko, rm3/6998, barch/ma. 30 “vermessung,” in denkschrift betreffend die entwicklung des kiautschou-gebiets vom oktober 1898 bis oktober 1899 [memorandum concerning the development of the kiautschou territory from october 1898 to october 1899] (reichsdruckerei, 1900), ks/ubf. 31 bruno meyermann, “das kiautschaugebiet [the qingdao territory]”, in paul heidke, “das meteorologische beobachtungsnetz in den deutschen kolonien [the meteorological observation network in german colonies],” meteorologische zeitschrift (1921): 101-106, hathitrust. 32 the 1911 second quarter work report of qingdao observatory, ko, rm3/6998, barch/ma. 33 the 1913 first quarter work report of qingdao observatory, ko, rm3/6998, barch/ma. 34 meyermann, “das kiautschaugebiet,” 101-106. 35 qingdao governor’s office to the naval department (january 20, 1913), ko, rm3/6998, barch/ma. 36 ferdinand von richthofen, shantung und seine eingangspforte kiautschou, 270-271. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 8 world” (der gruß er, den der welt deutsches volk entrichtet).37 this german vision of benefiting and greeting the world emphasized the civilizing mission of germans and europeans in advancing china’s meteorological enterprise. richthofen’s statements about germany’s occupation and development of qingdao further reflected this prevalent western mindset: the belief that china lacked both the will and capacity to reverse its decline without the intervention of a wise and external force—the europeans.38 it was precisely this mindset and colonial demand that prompted german scientists to send data collected from china and other regions in asia back to germany and its colonial scientific network. meteorological reports, environmental surveys, and academic publications from qingdao were regularly sent to the german maritime observatory in hamburg.39 through his academic network and career, bruno meyermann further disseminated the observatory’s comet observation data to scientists and institutions in germany, german samoa, britain, and beyond.40 in 1912, qingdao observatory acquired a new office building and china’s first geomagnetic observation chamber, becoming germany’s royal observatory. the next year, at the east asia meteorological conference held in japan, observatories in tokyo, qingdao, zikawei, and hong kong standardized storm warning signals, marking the beginning of standardized meteorological work in east asia.41 in just over a decade, this once remote maritime frontier of the chinese dynasties and overseas fragment of the german empire had become the meteorological center of germany and east asia. like paris of europe, it became the time center of asia.42 these two roles then continued to be enacted under the administrations of the two subsequent east asian regimes. towards navigating the “chinese-japanese sea,” 1914–1924 as a continuation of the struggle for military and trade interests in qingdao, japan and its ally britain launched a siege against the germans in qingdao in 1914.43 following germany’s defeat, japan became the second custodian of qingdao observatory. although this was a military victory and a regime change where an asian power replaced a western one, contemporary japanese scientists in recent chronicles have reminded us that, in terms of meteorological development, this was “the succession of qingdao observatory” (青島測候 所の継承).44 during this period, the observatory was incorporated into imperial japan’s meteorological networks, enriching its multifaceted central role. building on the german work, meteorology, seismology, and geomagnetism in qingdao developed rapidly, and the border natural environment, including the maritime areas between china and japan, was brought into its scope of study, continuing richthofen’s vision. japanese scientists recognized the importance of qingdao observatory early on. in 1900, japan had already begun collecting meteorological reports from various locations 37 the silhouette of this poetic plaque was published in der auslandsdeutsche [the overseas german] no.1(1912), ko, rm3/6998, barch/ma. 38 ferdinand von richthofen, shantung und seine eingangspforte kiautschou, 256. 39 the 1912 second quarter work report of qingdao observatory, ko, rm3/6998, barch/ma. 40 pyenson, cultural imperialism and exact sciences, 267. 41 meyermann, “das kiautschaugebiet,” 101-106. 42 the 1913 first quarter work report of qingdao observatory, ko, rm3/6998, barch/ma. 43 on the process of the war of siege of qingdao, see charles b. burdick, the japanese siege of tsingtau: world war i in asia (shoe string press, 1976). 44 haruhiko yamamoto, chūō kishōdai: teikoku nihon no kishō kansoku nettowāku no tenkai to shūen [the japan meteorological agency: development and demise of the meteorological observation network in imperial japan] (agriculture and forestry statistics publishing inc., 2023). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 9 across china, including jiaozhou bay, and dispatched technical personnel to china to pursue collaboration.45 when the japanese army planned to use artillery shells to destroy the infrastructure of qingdao, the central meteorological observatory in tokyo (cmo) sent a letter to the frontline troops, noting that the meteorological, astronomical, and geomagneticseismological equipment installed by germany at the observatory was of the highest quality. therefore, the cmo expressed its desire to send specialized technical personnel to accompany the army to qingdao to prevent any damage to these instruments.46 as a result, the japanese military took possession of the german office building and subsidiary observations with virtually no damage to the infrastructure. they also inherited facilities and precision instruments, including the transit instrument room, seismometer room, magnetism room, time ballroom, and louvered screens.47 given qingdao’s geographical location as a new colony and its integration into existing colonial networks, japan expanded and innovated the scientific work of qingdao observatory. while continuing its cooperation with zikawei and hko, and maintaining the exchange of meteorological reports, the observatory’s observational scope was extended to connect with mainland japan, the japanese-occupied korea, the kwantung leased territory, and southern china, including another japanese-occupied colony, taiwan. regarding time measurement, japanese scientists also made improvements, replacing the time ball used during the german occupation with the firing of a cannon at noon each day in the port. these changes substituted sound for a visual signal, enhancing the range of time signal transmission,48 while also asserting japan’s sovereignty over the observatory on a broader scale. furthermore, japan strengthened the observatory with new instruments and expanded its operational scope to include oceanic meteorology and the marine chemical industries. these initiatives encompassed a wide range of activities, such as meteorological surveys of the waters near qingdao, fisheries exploitation, laboratory analysis of seawater composition, and the extraction and production of marine industrial products.49 additionally, qingdao observatory’s advanced seismic observation capabilities, which had been leading since the german period, met japan’s growing domestic demand for earthquake prediction.50 in letters to the japanese government and the japanese navy, the renowned japanese geophysicist tanakadate aikitsu 田中舘愛橘(1856–1952) pointed out that continuing germany’s previous seismic and geomagnetic works in asia (referred to as “ 東洋地方” in his letters) held special significance. not only would it maintain the observatory and east asia’s prominent position in the international scientific community, but it would also help japan secure its representation in international geomagnetic organizations 45 “ryojun ikaiei kōshūwan oyobi tenshin gai go-kō no kishō hōkoku densō narabi ni pekin dōbun-kangai jūgo kasho no kishō geppō sōfu kata monbu daijin yori irai ikken [request from the minister of education regarding the transmission of meteorological reports from lushun, weihaiwei, jiaozhou bay, and the five outer ports of tianjin, as well as the submission of monthly meteorological reports from tongwen guan in beijing and fifteen other locations]” (8 january 1900), diplomatic archives of the ministry of foreign affairs, japan (mfa), b12082144200. 46 chintao tenmondai no ken [documents concerning qingdao observatory] (november 1914), national institute for defense studies, ministry of defense, japan (nids), c03024368800. 47 rinji chintao yōkōbu sokkōjo senji nisshi [temporary qingdao naval station office meteorological observatory wartime diary] (december 1914), nids, c10080057600. 48 jiang bingran, “preface,” in qingdaoshi guanxiangtai shizhou jiniance [qingdao observatory tenth anniversary commemorative book] (qingdao observatory, 1934), 12. 49 qingdao shizhengfu [qingdao municipal government, qmg], “qingdao guanxiangtai yange jiqi zhongyaoxing [the evolution and importance of qingdao observatory]” (october 18, 1946), qingdao municipal archives (qma), b0024-00100240-0088. 50 kamada eiyuki, “chintao sokkōjo ni kansuru ken [documents concerning qingdao observatory] (july 28, 1922)”, nids, c03025349700. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 10 and showcase japanese scholarly achievements to the world. tanakadate also attached two letters from the royal netherlands meteorological institute and the british kew observatory, both urging japan not to interrupt the scientific observations at the observatory.51 this reminds his earlier appeals in the 1910s, where he viewed the “scientific spirit” as a universal ideal shared by both east and west and a symbol of modernity, thereby he argued that the japanese could cultivate this spirit like western people, and strived for scientific innovation rather than merely replicating western technology.52 tanakadate’s remarks about scientific spirit and establishing japan’s scientific credentials at the observatories left behind by germany in its former chinese colonies reflect the complex implications of pan-asianism: it was both an effort towards scientific integration in east asia and a cloak for japan’s pursuit of leadership and expansionism in the region. consequently, although qingdao did not hold a prominent position among japan’s colonies, during this period, qingdao observatory quickly emerged as a center of japan’s meteorological and geomagnetic observation network across east asia. moreover, it officially began conducting marine research, focusing on the ocean that richthofen referred to as the “chinese-japanese sea.” this period also saw the utilization of submarine cables between china and japan to establish a meteorological information network, transforming the observatory into the “central meteorological observatory.” unlike the earlier exchange of data among observatories, this network involved transnational telecommunications and scientific cooperation across different nations. notably, this scientific network was woven not in a context of peaceful coexistence between china and japan, but during a period of intense political confrontation over the sovereignty of the observatory. between imperial japan and the republic of china, 1924–1931 the period of sino-japanese confrontation in qingdao observatory lasted from 1924 until around 1931. within the observatory itself, chinese and japanese scientists, despite intense diplomatic negotiations and different ideologies, reached compromises and collaborated in the formulation of the sino-japanese meteorological telegraph network. utilizing submarine cables around this coastal city,53 this telegraph network transmitted meteorological information between japan and its colonies and china, with qingdao as its hub, linking japan to china’s vast interior regions (fig.2). this network overlaid previous colonial networks for meteorology, geomagnetism, and astronomy that had already connected germany, japan, and other countries. as a result, it continued to reinforce the observatory’s complex role as both a peripheral and central node within multiple interconnected scientific networks. 51 tanakadate aikitsu, “chintao ni oite chijiki kansoku keizoku ni kansuru ken [documents concerning the continuation of geomagnetic observations in qingdao] (july 14, 1915)”, nids, c03024548500. 52 hiromi mizuno, science for the empire: scientific nationalism in modern japan, 77-78. 53 the laying and use of maritime cables between china and japan represent a case of transnational technology transfer and infrastructure modernization, which warrants a more complex and in-depth discussion—likely beyond the primary focus of this paper. for current research on communication technology and sino-foreign relations in modern china, see xue yiqun, telegraphing the world: the construction and adoption of international communication networks in modern china, 1870– 1937 (social sciences academic press, china, 2022). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 11 fig. 2. 支那－関東州－満洲を結ぶ有線（一）、無線（---）、海底ケーブル（~~） のネットワーク [the network of telegraph (―), wireless (---), and submarine cable (~~) connections linking china, the kwantung leased territory, and manchuria]. from a file dated 1923, reproduced in chūō kishōdai, 159, courtesy of diplomatic archives of the ministry of foreign affairs of japan (mfa), b04122582500. according to records left by chinese meteorologist zhu kezhen 竺可楨 (1890–1974), the cause of the standoff was japan’s reluctance to relinquish its scientific interests in qingdao observatory after world war i, when china resumed sovereignty over shandong. like tanakadate aikitsu’s rhetoric, japanese scientists from korea and taiwan wrote to the mfa emphasizing that the meteorological operations of the observatory were of great importance and that the development of meteorology in the roc was still in its infancy. therefore, they argued, japan should continue to lead the scientific work in the observatory.54 zhu also held the view that the roc government was unwilling to bear the financial costs of the observatory on its own and did not prioritize meteorological science and technology.55 his opinions were later validated during the roc’s administration. government funding was repeatedly delayed, and there were even multiple demands to reduce the salaries of chinese staff.56 this situation underscored the disadvantaged position of chinese scientists within the observatory’s power dynamics, as well as the inadequate support provided by the roc government. in 1924, after jiang bingran 蔣丙然 (1883–1966), the first chinese director of qingdao observatory, led a team of chinese technicians into the observatory, chinese and japanese scientists were forced to work together within the observatory. according to their diplomatic agreement following the washington naval conference (1922), once the chinese technicians were sufficiently trained, japanese scientists would design a meteorological telegraph communication plan with them, and then fully return to the observatory.57 this treaty 54 “sokōsho santō ken’an kaiketsu kōshō ikken [qingdao observatory, the documents of shandong issue]” (may 29, 1922– april 6, 1923), mfa, b07090860500. 55 zhu kezhen, “qingdao jieshou zhi qingxing [the situation of the qingdao handover],” in the complete works of coching chu, ed. fan hongye, vol.1 (shanghai science and technology education press, 2004), 422-423. 56 documents submitted by qingdao observatory (june 1, 1928), qma, b0029-001-03102-0051-0056. 57 documents concerning the sino-japanese agreement about qingdao observatory (october 23, 1924), qma, b0035-00100128-0018. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 12 indicated that the key factors determining the ownership of the observatory were two political and technical issues: who, by which standards to decide whether chinese technicians were sufficiently trained, and the establishment of a sino-japanese meteorological network. both of these issues were closely tied to the scientists working within the observatory. in stark contrast to the diplomatic and political tensions, scientists from both countries maintained relative respect, empathy, and friendly interactions. to demonstrate that their technical expertise was not inferior to that of the japanese, and to assert their desire for scientific independence, the chinese scientists worked diligently and frequently competed with their japanese counterparts in the accuracy of observational data and other scientific activities. looking back upon this period years later, jiang bingran specifically noted that japanese scientists often sympathized with their hard work and acknowledged the quality of their achievements.58 the japanese director irumada tsuyoshi 入間田毅59, who remained at the observatory, even submitted documents to both the chinese and japanese governments, stating that the technical capabilities of chinese scientists were sufficiently mature and recommending that japan fully return the observatory to china. although the japanese government retroactively claimed that irumada’s recognition of chinese scientists was merely unrealistic praise made in a casual setting,60 this personal document directly influenced a shift in japan’s diplomatic strategy, and provided chinese scientists with evidence to request the return of the observatory by the previous treaty, ultimately sparking a new round of negotiations between the two governments. after irumada tsuyoshi’s incident, the cmo submitted a new proposal to the mfa, suggesting that japan abandon qingdao observatory and instead establish a new observatory within the japanese consulate in qingdao. its fourth director, okada takematsu 岡田武松 (1874–1956), argued that meteorological observation was an international academic endeavor and should not be viewed as an infringement of national sovereignty. he pointed out that there were american meteorological stations in beijing and xiamen, and french stations in shanghai and suzhou, making it reasonable for japan to establish an independent meteorological station in china.61 the examples he cited implied that japan should claim the same scientific privileges in china as america and france. however, okada’s proposal, somewhat diverging from the views of the japanese scientists previously mentioned, aimed to separate scientific institutions representing territorial sovereignty from scientific activities embodying an internationalist spirit. that may also reflect irumada’s perspective, although the lack of his personal writings makes it difficult to ascertain whether his actions were driven by empathy among scientists, or by an understanding reached with okada in the imperial capital. after all, despite submitting a public document that contradicted the japanese government’s official stance, irumada faced no obvious punishment and continued to serve as director in qingdao until 1928, after which he returned to tokyo to resume his 58 jiang bingran, “sishiwu nian lai wo canjia zhi zhongguo guanxiang shiye [my experiences in participating in china’s meteorological observatory work over the past forty-five years],” in special issue in celebration of mr. jiang’s 75th birthday (taipei, 1957), 67. 59 information on tatuyoshi is rather limited, so i have not yet found records left by him, making his true motivation for submitting the documents unclear. however, he presented his opinions to the authorities in the form of official administrative documents, clearly not as informal remarks made under intoxication. moreover, his correspondence with jiang bingran concerning instruments and data demonstrates that he was able to act freely within the observatory, unimpeded by chinese restrictions. see letter from jiang bingran to irumada tsuyoshi (october 20, 1926), qma, b0035-001-00127-0010; letter from jiang bingran to irima tatuyoshi (july 30, 1928), qma, b0035-001-00127-0015. 60 “kakkoku kishō kankei zakken / chintao sokkōjo kankei” (1924), mfa, b04011381500. 61 “kakkoku kishō kankei zakken / chintao sokkōjo kankei” (1929), mfa, b04011382200. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 13 career as a meteorological technician.62 although the cmo attempted to advance negotiations, the outbreak of the northern expedition (1926–1928) interrupted negotiations, and it was not until 1930 that the japanese government formally proposed establishing the meteorological telegraph network and returned the observatory to china.63 as early as 1925, shortly after irumada tsuyoshi submitted his documents, scientists from china and japan had already reached a consensus that, given china’s already welltrained technical staff, japan should transfer the full operations of qingdao observatory back to china. this agreement marked the beginning of discussions on the sino-japanese meteorological telegraph communication plan.64 from 1925 to 1931, a network for exchanging meteorological information across the maritime regions between china and japan was gradually established, inherited, and materialized in richthofen’s vision. specifically, through the qingdao-sasebo submarine cables, qingdao observatory established connections with the cmo in tokyo, the kobe marine observatory (kmo), and other meteorological stations in korea and taiwan. besides, via the yantai-dalian submarine cables, the observatory and japanese observatories shared the meteorological data with jinan, yantai, mukden (present-day shenyang), and other locations in northern and northeastern china.65 while japanese was used for sino-japanese meteorological exchanges, other routes allowed china to choose an internationally recognized language for communication.66 after the sinojapanese meteorological telegraph communication system was finalized, japanese technicians withdrew from the observatory, continuing only limited observational activities within the grounds of the japanese consulate in qingdao.67 meteorological data and signals of qingdao were also officially disseminated by chinese scientists.68 during this period, both meteorological reports submitted to the qingdao municipal government and local newspapers categorized observations as “local” (本埠), “domestic” (國內), and japanese.69 in summary, during the sino-japanese joint administration, qingdao observatory became entangled in a series of sovereignty struggles, highlighting the interaction between science and politics. the creation of the sino-japanese meteorological information network did not sever qingdao’s ties to colonial networks following japan’s departure; rather, it expanded its reach into broader regions of mainland china. this information network, which overlapped spatially with the german-managed meteorological station network, represented a continuation of earlier transnational scientific collaboration. it also exemplified the observatory’s instrumental role in enhancing maritime safety and navigation through the shared efforts of meteorological observation and prediction, once again echoing richthofen’s foresight. almost simultaneously, chinese scientists began to inherit and utilize the scientific legacy and transnational collaboration foundations left by germany and japan in qingdao. 62 “moto kisōdai gishi irumada tsuyoshi jo’i no ken [document on the change of position of irumada tsuyoshi, former meteorological observatory technician]” (1928), national archives of japan (naj), a11113857300. 63 “kakkoku kishō kankei zakken / chintao sokkōjo kankei” (1930), mfa, b04011382500. 64 document based on the japanese staff’s report on the qingdao observatory staff’s opinions and standards for negotiations with japan (1925), qma, b0035-001-00128-0109. 65 letters from qingdao observatory to qmg (october 30, 1924), qma, b0035-001-00130-0051. 66 documents concerning the proposals put forward by japanese technicians at qingdao observatory (august 10, 1929), zhong ri jiaoshe shouhui qingdao guanxiangtai [negotiations between china and japan over qingdao observatory] (zrjsqg), academia historica, 020-010106-0002. 67 kakkoku kishō kankei zakken / chintao sokkōjo kankei (1931), mfa, b04011382800. 68 documents concerning the redesign and re-hoisting of weather forecast flags by qingdao observatory (april, 1931), qma, b0034-001-00177-0042. 69 meteorological reports of qingdao observatory (1925), qma, a0017-002-00067-0035. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 14 amid similar diplomatic struggles, they chose to make their mark under a different discourse—one centered on nationalism and local science. local scientific practices and transnational cooperation in qingdao, 1924–1937 for china, qingdao observatory in 1924 represented a profound contradiction. it was the observatory most likely to have its sovereignty reclaimed by the roc, and possessing it would enable chinese meteorology to stand alongside britain (hko) and france (zikawei).70 on the other hand, the japanese staff’s presence complicated the full recovery of sovereignty, and entering the observatory itself meant facing direct scientific competition with japan. although chinese scientists endeavored to make the observatory a symbol of national science,71 this colonial-nationalist contact zone sustained existing technologies, infrastructures, developmental strategies, and established scientific networks, allowing knowledge and data from qingdao to continue circulating within global scientific networks. new meteorological networks and organizational structures oriented toward china gradually emerged, establishing qingdao as a center for chinese meteorology and marine research. these overlapping transnational scientific networks deepened the understanding of qingdao’s natural environment, reflecting the interwoven nature of colonial and nationalist modernities and contributing to the shaping of a new coastal city and community. the seemingly exclusionary anti-colonialist and nationalist tendencies behind the sovereignty negotiation of qingdao observatory paradoxically spurred chinese scientists to actively engage in transnational scientific cooperation and fueled the ongoing development and globalization of the observatory’s colonial scientific legacy. as jiang bingran once noted, “rectification of names” (正名) may appear to be a minor detail, but it matters to “national polity or dignity” (國體).72 consequently, chinese scientists emphasized that the naming rights of the observatory, as well as recognition of scientific achievements and international representation, should belong to china rather than japan. they aimed to prove that chinese technicians were sufficiently trained and to secure an equal position for china within the international academic community.73 therefore, despite differing political positions and ideologies, they shared with figures like richthofen and japanese scientists a similar strategic vision for developing scientific institutions. geographically, the focus extended from local qingdao to china’s inland regions and maritime territories, while simultaneously seeking transnational cooperation. in terms of science and technology, the development strategy was built upon the legacy of equipment and research from the german and japanese periods in meteorology, astronomy, and marine research. as the longest-standing and most fundamental scientific work at qingdao observatory, meteorological observation and reporting underwent further development after 1924. the scope of observation expanded to over 80 locations, including japan, major cities across china, shanghai, hong kong, the philippines, and vietnam. meteorological reports were 70 zhu kezhen, “nitiqing jiaoyubu huo zhonghuajiaoyugaijinshe guanli qingdao guanxiangtai bing jiayikuochong an [proposal to request the ministry of education or the society for the improvement of chinese education to manage and expand qingdao observatory],” in the complete works of coching chu, 418. 71 the most prominent article was the science society of china’s (中國科學社) manifesto, condemning japan’s colonial actions and framing the recovery of qingdao observatory as a sovereignty issue. leading newspapers such as shenbao, ta kung pao, and shibao reported on it, and public discourse became known as the “call for scientific independence” (科學獨 立之呼聲). 72 documents concerning the proposals put forward by japanese technicians at qingdao observatory (april 19, 1928), zrjsqg, ah, 020-010106-0002. 73 documents concerning the demand for japan to fully return qingdao observatory (february 19, 1925), qma, b0035001-00128-0051. zhu kezhen, “eliminate academic inequality,” in the complete works of coching chu, 571. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 15 exchanged twice daily via submarine cables and radiotelegraphy, allowing the collected information to be used for the creation of weather maps and regular broadcasts.74 meanwhile, the qingdao municipal government posted weather maps at transportation junctions and commercial centers of the city to facilitate the daily lives of residents.75 ships passing through qingdao, whether chinese or foreign, were able to receive these meteorological reports and weather maps.76 it also collaborated with other meteorological stations in shandong, aiming to establish a network of meteorological stations across the province and eventually nationwide, expanding the scope of meteorological observations and improving the accuracy of the data.77 considering that weather maps are not only the result of knowledge production but also reflect the state’s power and its ability to provide public services,78 the increasingly rich meteorological data observed and produced by chinese scientists significantly strengthened chinese meteorology’s voice in the international arena. besides, qingdao observatory represented china at the international longitude determination (ild) in 1926 and 1933. owing to japan’s deliberate protection of the observatory during the war, as well as the relatively peaceful collaboration between chinese and japanese scientists, the observatory’s infrastructure and instruments were largely preserved until the late 1920s. during chinese scientists’ first participation in the ild, they utilized these german instruments to correct previous longitude measurements of qingdao made by german and japanese scientists.79 cooperation with european scientists also continued. jiang bingran not only borrowed observational instruments from the french,80 but also traveled with other astronomical technicians to zikawei to learn longitude measurement and astronomical observation techniques.81 during its second participation in the ild, the observatory acquired new instruments from germany and france and reviewed existing observation records. it also advocated for the inclusion of important towns across the country that had not yet been measured to jointly determine the precise location of qingdao and the entire country on the global map.82 this effort helped establish or improve meteorological stations in many regions of china, laying the infrastructural foundation for the roc, and later, the prc. in addition, concerning time measurement, chinese scientists recognized that adherence to precise timekeeping was essential for modernization. after discovering errors in the methods used during the german and japanese periods, such as the use of the time ball and the noon cannon, they continuously improved the time service by adopting the more accurate method of signaling with an electric whistle.83 the time service at the observatory 74 zheng weihua, “qingdaoshi guanxiangtai wuxiandianshi jingguogailue ji nibanshiye [overview of the history and proposed operations of the radio room at qingdao observatory],” in qingdaoshi guanxiangtai shizhou jiniance, 139. 75 documents concerning the daily submission of weather forecasts and weather maps for posting to the public (may, 1925), qma, b0032-001-00369-0007. 76 letters about distribution of weather maps (june 11, 1924), qma, b0038-001-00353-0049. 77 documents concerning qingdao observatory’s proposal to establish provincial meteorological stations (february 28, 1927), qma, b0035-001-00131-0072. 78 aitor anduaga, politics, statistics and weather forecasting, 1840–1910: taming the weather (routledge, 2019), 3. 79 reports on the ild (march 7, 1927), qma, b0029-001-02791-0024. 80 jiang bingran, “lujiabang cilitai canguanji [a visit to lujiabang magnetic observatory],” the astronomical and meteorological magazine, 11(1920): 7-20. 81 jiaoao shangbu guanxiangtai canjia wanguo jingdu celiang chengji baogaoshu [report on the qingdao observatory’s participation in the international longitude determination] (qingdao observatory, 1927), vii. 82 “gongzuo jiyao [work memorandum],” in qingdao guanxiangtai wushizhounian jiniantekan [qingdao observatory fifty anniversary commemorative book] (qingdao observatory, 1948), 67. 83 jiang bingran, “preface,” 12. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 16 became more accurate and extended to a broader geographical range, facilitating qingdao’s integration into transnational networks of industry and economy. the marine studies initiated during the japanese administration were further advanced, and qingdao became the site of china’s first aquarium. the establishment of this aquarium was directly influenced by japanese and european science. as song chunfang宋春舫 (1892–1938), a marine scientist who had worked at the observatory and the founder of qingdao aquarium (fig.3), explained, the kmo in japan, along with meteorological observatory in hamburg, paris, and liverpool, all housed marine science research institutions. monaco also had a dedicated oceanographic museum. therefore, song argued that qingdao should follow foreign countries and lead chinese science by developing its marine sciences.84 this pioneering work led to significant academic achievements, including the regular publication of the marine semiannual 海洋半年刊 and studies on the tides, sea fogs, and water temperatures of the ocean area in qingdao, which were translated into english and presented at the pacific science congress. fig. 3. 青島水族館 [the qingdao aquarium]. courtesy of qingdao guanxiangtai wushizhounian jinian tekan (qingdao observatory, 1948), 19. in a manner akin to the maps and museums discussed by benedict anderson,85 the meteorological and aquarium components of qingdao observatory also served as an important scientific center in constructing “imagined communities” and shaping identity. within the knowledge world of the observatory, weather maps and forecasts inform readers of meteorological conditions both within and beyond the region. these maps delineated geographic and national boundaries on flat surfaces, allowing people to see the threedimensional atmospheric environment. time service work, on the other hand, established time benchmarks, helping people perceive time in their daily lives. the aquarium at the observatory housed thousands of marine biological specimens and a large number of live organisms, and it regularly held public exhibitions. in just one year, from 1932 to 1933, it received over 74,000 visitors.86 another point to consider is that the observatory established a new organizational network to facilitate the circulation and dissemination of scientific 84 documents concerning the augmentation of marine research, qma, b0029-001-03903-0067. 85 benedict anderson, imagined community: a brilliant exegesis on nationalism (verso books, 2006), 170-190. 86 li fangcong, “haiyangke zhi lueli yu qi gaikuang [a brief history and overview of marine science],” in qingdao guanxiangtai shizhounian jiniance, 136. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 17 knowledge. in 1924, the chinese meteorological society was founded in qingdao, incorporating nearly all meteorological stations and related organizations operated by chinese scientists at the time.87 members of the society frequently held public lectures in qingdao to share accessible knowledge on topics like “the distribution of air pressure in china” (中國氣壓之分佈), consistently drawing enthusiastic responses.88 this society also set standards for scientific activities, including data collection, instrument calibration, and telegraph requirements, and represented china in the east asia meteorological conference and international meteorological activities, making a milestone in the independent institutionalization and internationalization of chinese meteorology. consequently, within qingdao observatory, scientific technologies, infrastructure, and development strategies extended from colonial periods into the nationalist regime. although from the moment they entered the observatory in 1924, chinese scientists repeatedly emphasized that the observatory’s scientific activities represented anti-colonial national science and independent science. in fact, the scientific systems and knowledge production during chinese administration were consistent with those followed by german and japanese scientists in qingdao. during all three regimes, despite periods of intense political upheaval, its science and technology were employed for the same purpose: to understand, transform, and utilize qingdao’s local natural environment for social and political interests, while contributing local scientific practices from qingdao to the world and fostering transnational collaboration. conclusion after the outbreak of the second sino-japanese war, japan once again occupied qingdao observatory. while sending japanese technicians to qingdao,89 the japanese government also allowed two chinese technicians, who had not managed to flee, to continue working at the observatory. in 1945, when qingdao returned to the control of the roc, they continued their observations.90 meanwhile, their three japanese colleagues—two meteorological observers, masaki shiichi 正木史一 and kibo ryoichi吉波良一, along with a radiotelegraph technician, fukuda mantoku 福田滿德—were retained by the nationalist government.91 during the postwar reconstruction period, the subsidiary station in licun was also restored to support the development of agricultural meteorology,92 which would soon become a crucial direction in the advancement of meteorology in the early prc.93 the observatory also received over 60 observation instruments on loan from the united states,94 and maintained the exchange of meteorological reports and communications with other 87 chinese meteorological society, “faqi zhongguo qixiang xuehui zhiqushu [statement of purpose for the founding of the chinese meteorological society],” bulletin of the chinese meteorological society 1 (1925). 88 “zhongguo qixiang xuehui dierri zai lixian zhongxue kaijiangyanhui zhi jishi [report on the chinese meteorological society’s lecture at lixian middle school],” jiaodong news (september 3, 1925), qma, d00426-00006-0010. 89 haruhiko yamamoto, chūō kishōdai, 161. 90 report on the handing of former personnel served in puppet organizations at qingdao observatory (september 10,1946), qma, b0035-001-00029-0023. 91 japanese staff information form at qingdao observatory (1946), qma, a0021-001-00388-0332. 92 documents concerning the agricultural and forestry affairs office and qingdao observatory to jointly establish the licun meteorological station (march 15, 1948), qma, b0032-001-01096-0007. 93 on the development of agricultural meteorology in the prc, see cheng chunshu, ed., forty years of agricultural meteorology in china (china meteorological press, 1994). 94 “guanxiangtai zhuang xinyiqi; liushizhong you meiguo yun qing [the observatory installed new instruments; over sixty types shipped from the united states to qingdao],” minyan news (august 8, 1946), qma, d00085-00016-0035. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 18 countries.95 in 1949, when the ccp took control of the observatory, they continued to employ the director and technicians from the roc period. by this time, the observatory had become the largest meteorological station in china still in operation. although the ccp government restructured the observatory’s administrative units and functions, transferring astronomical, geomagnetic, and seismic work to the chinese academy of sciences, the core meteorological work continued in the office building constructed by the germans in 1912.96 the priorities of qingdao observatory undoubtedly shifted under different regimes, reflecting the colonial exploitative and anti-colonial nation context underpinning both richthofen’s predictions and the collaborative work of chinese and japanese scientists. however, across various contexts, the observatory’s tasks and local practices remained consistent. it consistently served as a center of meteorology, advancing scientific and technical capabilities, striving for more precise measurements, and fostering transnational cooperation across asia and globally. no longer the remote maritime frontier of a fading dynasty, the observatory transformed into a hub of scientific development within interconnected local, regional, and global scientific networks. these multilayered networks were not constructed solely by any single nation-state within a fixed geographic boundary. instead, they were collectively constituted through transboundary collaborations involving various state actors. often misaligned with imperial, colonial, or national borders, these networks adapted to and co-evolved with shifting political powers, ensuring their continuity. simultaneously, the flourishing of meteorology, astronomy, seismology, geomagnetism, and marine science, rendered the atmosphere, land, tides, and marine life legible and possibly controllable. these factors, intertwined with human activities, forged new environmental and urban orders, creating new conceptions of time and space. more broadly, exploring and articulating the continuity among different regimes in the 20th century from a scientific perspective is a common issue for many nation-states in asia and beyond. as the indian historian gyan prakash observes, the complexity of modern indian science may also be a continuation of colonial polysemy.97 the story of qingdao observatory reminds us that on this issue, the boundaries between periphery and center are blurred, and technicians, local science, and technological practices traversed national borders, transcending the spatial and temporal boundaries of geopolitics. this dynamic rendered qingdao a unique microcosm of modern science, different colonial and national powers, and multiple modernities interacting with east asia. therefore, considering transnational and multiple scientific networks rather than strictly colonial or national science offers a way to navigate the landscape of war, ideological divisions, and ruptures in sovereignty, while seeking long-standing connections, shared commonalities, and overlooked continuities between past and present. acknowledgements this work has greatly benefited from the guidance and support of professors liu jiafeng (shandong university), song nianshen and liu xiao (tsinghua university), and cao yin (peking university), to whom i am profoundly grateful. 95 call signs and timetables for meteorological telegraph stations in various east asian locations (1947), qma, b0035001-00037-0019. 96 wang fuzhi, guan xin, and zhong zhiwei, “bainian qingdao qixiang shihua [centennial qingdao meteorological stories],” meteorological knowledge 4 (2014): 8-10, www.qxzs.org.cn. 97 gyan prakash, another reason: science and the imagination of modern india (princeton university press, 1999), 7-14. corresponding author(s) fiona clare williamson, singapore management university, fwilliamson@smu.edu.sg health and weather in unfavourable environments: exploring the historical dynamics of colonial medical meteorology in nineteenth-century tropical asia fiona williamson introduction medical meteorology had a long precedent in medical thought across eastern and western traditions. this article considers the tradition of medical meteorology that was favoured by western doctors in the nineteenth century, which was often applied within colonial contexts to the understanding of new climates and how these climates might impact on human health. looking at british-held tropical and sub-tropical colonies of the straits settlements and hong kong respectively, this article explores how medical meteorology was stimulated by the new pathological and atmospheric conditions that western settlers now inhabited in the name of the british empire. colonists brought with them concepts of climate and of disease causation that were underpinned by centuries of hippocratic and aristotelian thought. by 1800 these theoretical traditions were merging with newer empirical and systematic, observation-based scientific method. drawing on ancient theoretical groundings, climate was thought to play a significant role in determining human health which, when combined with an emerging body of new instrumental weather observations made across the colonies, enabled doctors to look for patterns of cause and effect between climate and the human condition, or extreme weather and disease.1 the tropics, with high levels of humidity, heavy rains and heat, were thought to push the (european) body to the limits of its endurance and incubate the conditions for a whole range of malignant diseases to thrive. as meteorological records from the tropical regions became 1 matthias heymann, “the evolution of climate ideas and knowledge,” wires climate change 1 (2010): 581-597. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 2 more commonplace, a quantitative method of comparing disease incidence with weather conditions became common practice in the medical institutions of the british empire. undertaking simple correlative studies, doctors saw that natural hazards, especially floods and droughts, could cause spikes in certain illnesses, information that was critical in enabling colonisers to understand and respond to their new environments. based on similar methodological roots – especially the collation and correlation of large quantities of statistical data – medical meteorology and meteorology brought the unknown variables of climate and in health under recognisable and predictable medical and scientific frameworks. there is a large body of literature that investigates the relationship of weather and human health in the past. historical climatologists and historians of climate, for instance, have examined how longand short-term climatic changes have affected the synergy between nutritional availability and human health; drawn correlations between epidemics with the availability of water or insect vectors, such as cholera and malaria; and have shown how declining human health may have fed into social unrest and dynastic change.2 historians have also been intrigued by how people thought about climate and health in the past. mark harrison and david arnold, for example, pioneered research into how climates were constructed by western scholars and scientists, often in connection with cultural assumptions and racial stereotypes of geographies, weathers and peoples. these assumptions came to influence assumptions of places as healthy or unhealthy and by extension, the characters of native populations.3 harrison’s claim that european’s found in india a unique disease environment, demanding a fundamental reappraisal of their medical knowledge and thus new forms of treatment, was one overarching reason for the pursuit of studies into tropical weather and disease by colonial medics.4 arnold’s conceptualisation of “tropicality” also provides a reason for why europeans focussed so overtly on the climate as a potential source of ill-health.5 based on extensive research on british colonial medicine and popular thought about health in india, arnold argued that colonists imagined disease as somehow more acute and malignant in tropical climes, which led to a general fear of tropical environments and a greater desire to investigate their 2 katherine pribyl, farming, famine and plague: the impact of climate in late medieval england (springer, 2017); anthony j. mcmichael with alistair woodward and cameron muir, climate change and the health of nations: famines, fevers, and the health of populations (oxford university press, 2017); huidong tian, et al., “scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient china,” pnas 114, no. 49 (2017): 12970-12975; bruce campbell, the great transition: climate, disease and society in the late-medieval world (cambridge university press, 2016); timothy brook, “differential effects of global and local climate data in assessing environmental drivers of epidemic outbreaks,” proceedings of the national academy of sciences usa 114 (2017): 12845-7; richard grove, “the great el niño of 1789–93 and its global consequences: reconstructing an extreme climate event in world environmental history,” the medieval history journal 10, no. 1&2 (2007): 75-98; harry f. lee et al., 2017, “climate change and epidemics in chinese history: a multi-scalar analysis,” social sciences and medicine 174 (2017): 53-63; qing pei et al., 2015, “epidemics in ming and qing china: impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being,” social sciences and medicine 136-7 (2015): 73-80; david d. zhang, et al., “the causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis,” pnas 108, no. 42 (2011): 17296-301. 3 laurence monnais and hans pols, “health and disease in the colonies: medicine in the age of empire,” in the routledge history of western empires, ed. robert aldrich and kirsten mckenzie (routledge, 2014), 270-284; james beattie, empire and environmental anxiety: health, science, art and conservation in south asia and australasia, 1800-1920 (palgrave macmillan, 2011); david arnold, warm climates and western medicine: the emergence of tropical medicine, 1500-1900 (editions rodopi b. v., 1996); mark harrison, climates and constitutions: health, race, environment and british imperialism in india, 1600-1850 (oxford university press, 1999); dane kennedy, “the perils of the midday sun: climatic anxieties in the colonial tropics” in imperialism and the natural world, ed. john m. mackenzie (manchester university press, 1990), 118-40. 4 mark harrison, public health in british india: anglo-indian preventative medicine 1859-1914 (cambridge university press, 1994), 36. 5 david arnold, the tropics and the traveling gaze: india, landscape and science, 1800-1856 (university of washington press, 2006). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 3 relationship with health.6 integral to this fear and misunderstanding were the extremes of weather that were thoroughly alien to europeans used to more temperate climes: the overwhelming heat, continued humidity, tropical storms, typhoons and torrential monsoon rains. monsoon failure, conversely, was understood as a significant contributor to indian famines and subsequent epidemics, including cholera. while the proper relationship of weather and cholera was not fully understood during the early 1800s (cholera was thought to be transmitted through noxious airs known as miasma), the correlation of cholera outbreaks with extremes of rainfall was diagnosed by comparing weather records and disease data and, arguably, anecdotal observation.7 given the centrality of meteorological records to contemporary research on tropical disease, it is perhaps surprising that the practice of medical meteorology has been largely ignored by historians, especially outside of the colonial indian context. even for historians of india, colonial medical meteorology has, for the most part, been tackled implicitly. leela sami, for example, looked at medical responses to famine during the devasting famine of 1876-8, investigating the issue through a detailed study of madras presidency records. nevertheless, although she cites drought as a contemporary given cause of an associated epidemic fever, she does not delve further into the role that medical meteorology played in this discussion, through arguably this was not the intention of the piece.8 others, like mark harrison or sheldon watts, have investigated the work of contemporary doctors who noted connections between disease rates and the indian climate but do not write on medical meteorology for its own sake.9 this absence is not symptomatic of any neglect on the part of the historians, rather it reflects the embeddedness of meteorology within day-to-day contemporary medical practices, as medical staff routinely made observations as part of their regular duties. hospitals, for example, were often equipped with their own weather registering stations or, in some cases, small observatories. annual departmental reports made by colonial medical officers made mention of particular weather episodes and outbreaks of epidemic disease, but their discussion was often limited to noting, rather than analysing in any depth. specialist studies on the effects of heat on the human body were the exception to this rule but these were not meteorological studies per se but studies of human physiology, like the effects of exercising in the heat on the human body, that were undertaken by military doctors.10 occasionally medical meteorological studies were not undertaken by medical doctors at all but by meteorologists themselves, leading to a further complication in the history of medicine. 11 indeed, when james espy, the controversial nineteenth-century american meteorologist, raised the possibility of controlling 6 david arnold, colonizing the body: state medicine and epidemic disease in nineteenth-century india (university of california press, 1993), 37. 7 mike davies, late victorian holocausts: el ninõ famines and the making of the third world (verso, 2001). 8 leela sami, “the epidemiological, health and medical aspects of famine: views from the madras presidency (1876-78),” in society, medicine, and politics in colonial india, ed. biswamoy pati and mark harrison (routledge, 2018), 148-71. 9 mark harrison, “the great shift: cholera theory and sanitary policy in british india, 1867-1879” in society, medicine, and politics in colonial india, ed. biswamoy pati and mark harrison (routledge, 2018), 37-60; sheldon watts, “cholera and the maritime environment of great britain, india and the suez canal: 1866-1883,” international journal of environmental studies 63, no. 1 (2006): 19-38. 10 for example: the national archives, uk (hereafter tna) adm 101/259/2, ff. 33-44. journal of f. h. blaxall, m.d. ship’s surgeon, notes on heat apoplexy in the mauritius, 1866-7; tna fd/1/3548, ff. 1-19. tropical climate conditions by dr d. lee, 1930s. 11 for instance: gilbert walker, “the meteorology of india”, journal of the royal society of arts 73, no. 3793 (1925): 83855. gilbert walker, “meteorology in india in relation to cholera”, the british medical journal 2, no. 810 (1876): 55-56. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 4 extreme weather, he had considered it a given that epidemics would be eliminated in tandem, something that medical professionals would likely have scoffed at.12 much of the literature that explicitly addresses medical meteorology has focused on the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and on european contexts. we can, for example, seek guidance from andrea a. rusnock’s comprehensive overview of early-modern medical meteorology, undertaken by scholars including robert hooke, james jurin and félix vicq d’azyr, or see how renaissance scientists including tycho brahe explored the influence of the weather on the body.13 moving forward in historiographical time, we can read conevery bolton valenčius’ study of early settlers in the american west; huib zuidervaart’s work on the medical outputs of an early dutch meteorological society or, jan golinski’s discussion of the eighteenth century hippocratic revival and what he terms “aerial sensitivity”.14 for the nineteenth century, the dedicated literature grows smaller, but vladimir jankovic has thought around how the british victorians reconceptualised classical views of the pathological agency of wind; morton a. skydsgaard has explored the rise and fall of the field in nineteenth century denmark and, john harley warner has examined medical meteorology’s influence on midnineteenth century american medical professionals. 15 while this literature looks geographically west, harley warner makes the interesting observation that medical meteorology contributed to the development of medicines and theoretical frameworks more suited to new, local circumstances than those imported from europe, through its unique ability to relocate health in relation to a new climate and environment. his claim is certainly applicable to western educated doctors operating in the tropics.16 this article therefore contends that, given its centrality to contemporary colonial medical, meteorological, and climatological discourses before 1900, medical meteorology ought to be given a more visible place in historical scholarship. not only was it an essential element of medical reportage but, it was critical to contemporary understandings of how natural hazards and extreme weather may have amplified disease vectors and epidemics. medical meteorology also became deeply integrated into emergent public health, sanitation and urban planning initiatives because of the recognition of the interconnectedness of weather and urban disease pathways. as such, medical meteorology was embedded at the heart of a multiplicity of colonial administrative functions, and colonial fears. building on the work on tropicality within colonial india, this article highlights the practice of medical meteorology in the british colony known as the straits settlements (comprising singapore, penang island and province wellesley, and malacca) as an alternative counterpoint. it also examines how practices here were shaped by the wider imperial knowledge networks that crossed india and other british colonies such as hong kong. this redirection hopes to address a gap in the medical and 12 christopher carter, magnetic fever: global imperialism and empiricism in the nineteenth century (american philosophical society, 2009), 135. 13 andrea a. rusnock, vital accounts: quantifying health and population in eighteenth-century england and france (cambridge university press, 2009), 109-136. for a short discussion of danish language texts on the subject, see: morten a. skydsgaard, “it’s probably in the air: medical meteorology in denmark, 1810-1875,” medical history 54 (2010): 218. 14 huib zuidervaart, “an eighteenth-century medical–meteorological society in the netherlands: an investigation of early organization, instrumentation and quantification. part 1,” british journal of the history of science 38, no. 4 (2005): 379-410; conevery bolton valenčius, the health of the country (basic books, 2002); jan golinski, british weather and the climate of enlightenment (university of chicago press, 2002), 137-69. 15 vladimir jankovic, “gruff boreas, deadly calms: a medical perspective on winds and the victorians,” journal of the royal anthropological institute 13 (2007): 147-64. see also: j. burton, “meteorology and the public health movement in london during the late nineteenth century,” weather 45 (1990): 300-7; skydsgaard, “it’s probably in the air”; john harley warner, the therapeutic perspective: medical practice, knowledge, and identity in america, 1820-1885, 2nd edn. (princeton university press, 1997). 16 harley warner, the therapeutic perspective, 75-6. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 5 meteorological literature for british colonial southeast asia, while acknowledging that medical meteorology there did not exist in a vacuum.17 it is well known that the natural hazards of asia were conceptualised by nineteenthcentury europeans as facets of the tropical. this framing played to european’s sense of the alien and extreme but relatedly the relationship of natural disaster to peaks in tropical disease. indeed, this frame even helped justify imperialism. as upamanyu mukherjee has argued, the imagining of the tropics as zones of constant disease and disaster played into the concept of palliative imperialism, whereby colonists’ right to rule was justified by their supposed paternalistic ability to mitigate disasters and to treat their tropical subjects.18 as european enthusiasm for imperialism waned, and the atmospheric sciences took to new heights in the inter-war period, old ideas about weather, tropical hazards and health declined in many scientific circles. this article’s chronological focus (roughly 1840-1920) therefore coincides with the rise of meteorology as an atmospheric science and decline of meteorology as a medical construct. it may be that the ways in which extremes of weather were thought about, and subsequently managed, as result of advances in tropical meteorology as well as in medicine and the understanding of the vectors of disease, ultimately caused the demise of the field. in exploring these related areas then, this article also hopes to provide a small contribution to the emerging field of the history of tropical meteorology, revealing its significance within tropical field-based science. medical topographies in british colonial asia in tackling the joined-up challenges of weather and health, nineteenth-century meteorology and medical meteorology shared a methodological similarity in their reliance on collecting and analysing vast quantities of statistical information. the british empire provided both reason and means to coordinate and collect more weather and health information than ever before.19 when the english east india company (eeic) thought about the potential of a particular place or region for development as a plantation or colony, one of their first investigations, usually undertaken by military officers, was of the local environment. understanding whether the climate was temperate enough to productively grow plants with economic potential was a vital task, but establishing the healthiness of these unknown environments for settlement and development in the longer-term was also important. sir james clark, for example, provided inspiration for officers voyaging to asia, through publication of texts praising the healthful benefits of certain climates for specific ailments.20 clark had, like other medical practitioners of his time, such as james johnson, james ranald martin and robert scoresby jackson, been able to transpose commonly held hippocratic ideas of the body into asian locales but the tropics especially were perceived of as 17 exceptions include: sandra manickam, “not just skin deep: ideas of racial difference in genetic studies on orang asli from the 1950s,” in malaysia’s “original people”: past, present and future of the orang asli, ed. kirk endicott (nus press, 2016); fiona williamson, “weathering the british empire: meteorological research in the early nineteenth-century straits settlements,” the british journal for the history of science 48, no. 3 (2015): 475-492.; lenore manderson, sickness and the state: health and illness in colonial malaya, 1870-1940 (cambridge university press, 1996). 18 upamanyu pablo mukherjee, natural disasters and victorian empire: famines, fevers and literary cultures of south asia (palgrave macmillan, 2013). 19 martin mahony, “for an empire of “all types of climate”: meteorology as an imperial science,” journal of historical geography (2016): 29-39. 20 jame clark, the influence of climate in the prevention and cure of chronic diseases (thomas and newbery, 1829). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 6 generating and harbouring a specific range of injurious airs and miasmas thought to be heightened during periods of bad weather.21 from the very beginning, military doctors had therefore played significant roles in the establishment of factories or forts by producing advisory medical topographies of the region for the eeic and british government. medical topographies were essentially, a survey based upon, and supporting, the principles of medical meteorology, but balanced with narrative observation and theorisation on the qualities and dangers of the environment. they tended to follow a generic pattern, starting with a detailed geographical and geological description of a place before establishing the normative annual climate through a combination of anecdotal evidence and instrumental observations. they also noted any unusual meteorological phenomena and any known intelligence on regional diseases. certain features of the environment, like water, were narrated in depth. here there was considerable difference in opinion on the interaction of precipitation and water with health, dependent on what form they manifested in, for example, humidity, groundwater, rain, or flood. john caswall, for instance, a medical officer of the madras medical service, was employed in singapore during that colony’s first decade under british rule to report on the island’s medical topography. describing a situation of near “complete saturation” caused by perpetually “moist” airs, miasmatic and unsanitary swamp “exhalations” and the frequent heavy rains of the northeast monsoon, he was astonished that colony was in fact remarkably healthy, free (or so he supposed) from the diseases that marked out other tropical settlements including “malignant intermittent fevers” and malaria.22 dr. t. m. ward produced medical topographies for malacca and for penang island, the latter where the newly developing urban settlement of george town was emerging. written much later than caswell’s account, ward had the benefit of a few more decades experience of the local climatic conditions which included piecemeal medical records and meteorological observations that spanned multiple years. as result he could make correlations between weather and disease outbreaks and was slightly less effusive about the healthiness of the straits settlements. indeed, ward’s study of penang for example, made in collaboration with an assistant surgeon (madras), j. p. grant, was an extensive critique of previous reports which he described as of a “vague and erroneous” nature and which had tarnished the island with a reputation for being insalubrious and unhealthy.23 ward paid very close attention to the circumstances in which the meteorological observations had been made over the years, to verify and assess their accuracy for his studies. for malacca, for instance, he used a set of early observations made under the direction of colonel farquhar in 1809, which had been published in the first volume of the transactions of the royal asiatic society of great britain and ireland and compared these with a further set made in 1828. he considered how the instruments had been kept, whether there was any potential for contamination from excess heat and explained possible discrepancies between the two datasets. like caswell, he had inferred medical information from elements of the 21 james johnson, the influence of tropical climates, more especially of the climate of india (on european constitutions &etc., 1815); j. r. martin, the influence of tropical climates on european constitutions &c, (london, 1853, new edn. 1856); r. scoresby jackson, r., medical climatology (london, 1862). for the history and evolution of miasma in medical thought, see: caroline hannaway, “environment and miasma” in companion encyclopaedia of the history of medicine, ed. w. f. bynum and roy porter (routledge, 1993), 292-308.. 22 british library (hereafter bl): mss eur d157. john caswall, observations on the medical topography of singapore (1830), ff. 2, 6, 22-4. 23 t. m. ward and j. p. grant, official papers on the medical statistics and topography of malacca and prince of wales' island…&c (government press, 1830), preface. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 7 landscape, noting how because of the absence of marshes in the vicinity of malacca, that the town ought to be free of marsh ‘effluvia,’ and therefore ought to be healthier than singapore or penang which were known for being low-lying and marshy in many places.24 for penang however, he considered the upland areas to be relatively healthy, supported by weather observations made at altitude on government hill. indeed, a government-sponsored convalescent bungalow for officers and their families had been built to take advantage of the cooler temperatures and breezes on nearby penang hill, overlooking the main settlement. this was known at the time as “mount hygeia.”25 ward’s penang topography wanders from the scientific to the subjective. on the one hand, his work provides extensive reference to studies of climate and disease by medical professionals working across the british empire and china citing johnson and others, including john clark. yet, he waxes lyrical about the beauty of the hills and their cool airs, claiming that the subsequent ‘enervation of the soul’ could not fail to help invalids in their recovery. hazardous environments doctor robert little’s study of singapore was published almost two-decades after ward’s studies of penang and benefitted from weather observations made by lieutenant charles elliot at the short-lived singapore observatory (1841-45), even though he was rather critical of the quality of the observations that had been made during that time.26 little was particularly concerned to discuss the winds and, what he felt were superstitious beliefs held by “natives” and “resident europeans” alike on their purported healthiness, dependent on their origin and the time of the year during which they blew.27 but what most concerned him most (as ward before him), was water. the frequent rain, he noted, was conducive to health. it cooled the earth and diminished “the generation of any atmospherical [sic] malaria … by which all stagnation is prevented and marsh miasma is but little generated.” 28 however, little also warned of the dangers of humidity, as “malaria or miasm find in moisture an excellent medium of transmission, and from the statistics of tropical countries it is well known that wherever there is much moisture there is a corresponding increase of diseases.” toxic miasma was created by excess water in combination with decomposing animal or vegetable matter, argued little. in his opinion, miasma was a serious issue in singapore because of the prevalence of swamps on the island and its frequent tidal and monsoonal flooding. adding to the problem were the forest clearances that were then transforming the landscape into plantations and waste grounds of lalang (a tough grass) which had created more “vegetable decay and standing water.”29 these views were not confined to the straits settlements but were echoed elsewhere in sub-tropical and temperate regions. charles courtney, for example, a british royal navy surgeon of the provisional battalion of marines in the china squadron during the opium wars between china and britain created medical topographies for all the places that he visited, including hong kong, guangzhou (canton), macao, shantou (swatow), xiamen (amoy), 24 ibid., pp. 14-16. 25 ibid., p. 3. 26 robert little, “an essay on coral reefs as the cause of blakan mati fever etc, part i: on the medical topography of singapore, particularly its marshes and malaria,” journal of the indian archipelago and eastern asia 3, no. 8 (1848): 459463; anon, “miscellaneous notices &c: the singapore observatory”, journal of the indian archipelago and eastern asia vol. 3, no. 4 (1849): xxxvii-xlvi. 27 little, “an essay on coral reefs as the cause of blakan mati fever etc, part i”, 851-853. 28 ibid., p. 458. 29 little, “an essay on coral reefs as the cause of blakan mati fever etc, part i”, 458, 465-466. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 8 fuzhou (fuchou), ningbo (ningpo), zhoushan (chusan), shanghai and beijing (peking) and some major ports in japan including nagasaki, hokkaido, and tokyo.30 stationed with troops for the battle and occupation of guangzhou from december 1857 to september 1858, for instance, courtney described the subsequent year’s weather month-by-month with instrumental records of the temperature, pressure and rainfall and gave detailed breakdowns of disease incidence in relation to the climate of each month. the weather was frequently accorded a significant role in creating the types and outcomes of disease across the year. in september, for example, he noted how the number of intermittent fever (probably malaria) had increased, a fact which he attributed to the change between the diurnal and nocturnal temperature and many cases of what he termed “debility” of an unspecified nature, where men had “clean tongues”, “a small pulse”, and “were scarcely able to walk” because of the “effects of the climate and previous sickness.”31 on moving to hong kong in 1859, courtney was to write that conditions here were far less favourable than at guangzhou and that the new colony was, and likely always would be, unhealthy due to the generally unsanitary conditions created by the weather in combination with the wet environment.32 in particular, he argued that the high mountainous areas led to a constant flow of water that formed ‘miasmatic’ pools and swamps “favourable to the development of malaria.”33 this pre-occupation with moisture and dangerous miasma was shared by others in hong kong including ship’s surgeon john buckley who, like courtney, had been assigned to chinese coastal waters. noting for example that his ship’s time in harbour at hong kong had been favourable because “the air was free from moisture,” the situation changed in his last few days as heavy clouds and a drizzling rain commenced. he continued that, “this state of the atmosphere is the forerunner of that most unhealthy weather for which hong kong is celebrated and from which this this ship’s co [sic] suffered so much last summer … i think that a high degree of temperature should be joined to an atmosphere saturated with moisture to produce that excessive degree of debility for which hong kong is so justly renowned.”34 buckley also referenced similar conditions in singapore, describing the area of new harbour (tanjong pagar) as “covered in mangroves, especially where the fresh water from the creeks and rivulets mixes with the salt water, at low water, there are immense tracts of black mud lying exposed to a burning sun, heaps of decaying mangrove trees mixed up with all kinds of putrefying animal matter, causing intense and rapid evolution of miasma. from this state of atmosphere, one would be led to expect the existence of bilious intermittent fever.”35 despite their preoccupation with moisture as an indicator of ill-health, contemporary doctors also thought about the temperature. little’s work in the straits settlements, for instance, showed close connection with contemporary scientific experiments undertaken in london and in edinburgh by luke howard and david brewster respectively, the former on the influence of buildings on heat and the latter on establishing the mean temperatures of heat at tropical latitudes. it is here that little’s work as a medical doctor reveals the influence of global science in his assessments of the validity of available empirical evidence for the weather and 30 the national archives, uk (hereafter tna), adm 101/163. appendix to the journals of the provisional battalion of royal marines, medical topography of china and japan by charles courtney, 1857-61. 31 ibid., pp. 8, 25. 32 for more on courtney, see: michael humphries, ed., surgeon on the high seas: the journal of charles courtney (atrrabates press, 2012). 33 tna, adm 101/163, pp. 17-19. 34 tna, adm 101/185/4 journal of her majesty’s sloop rinaldo, china station for the year 1871, notes on tropical diseases, p. 37. 35 tna: adm 101/185/4, p. 39. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 9 his understanding of fluctuations in atmospheric temperature at local scales. noting a two degree rise in temperature across twenty-year’s worth of observations, for instance, he ascribed this phenomenon to short-term, localised, anthropogenic factors, such as the increase of buildings and the loss of jungle.36 relatedly, colonial doctors were preoccupied with seasonality and the impact of changes of season on human health. medical topographies and ongoing studies reported the incidence of disease and disease types in concert with a detailed breakdown of the weather across seasons and noted the prevalence of illness during seasons or during and after extreme weathers. the onset of the annual northeast monsoon in the straits settlements, for example, was particularly to be feared, as it heralded the “commencement of the sickly season from its excessive dampness.” 37 courtney in hong kong attributed “intermittent, remittent and continued fevers, boils, diarrhoea and dysentery, and hepatic affections” to annual weather cycles. dysentery, for example, was most common during sudden changes of weather and “intermittent fever” was prevalent “about the equinoxes and in the cooler weather”. the difficulty of pinning down the multiplicity of characteristics assigned to the fatal “hong kong fever” was also ascribed to the weather: as courtney explained it, the disease changed with each season.38 seasonality, and the rapid changeability of weather from hot and dry to cool and wet, were considered the most dangerous scenarios for health and it is in this context that natural hazards were feared, beyond their immediate impacts on society. shifts in thought and practice by the late-nineteenth century, the medical topography had given way to a more deeply embedded and regularised reporting of health and weather data. there had been a concerted push by scientific societies and observatories across the british empire and the asian region to ensure more standardisation in observation making and reporting, especially as the science of forecasting was becoming more relevant and adopted across the world. there had also been a push factor to more closely investigate the tropical atmosphere following a series of what were considered unusual events including cooler periods in the 1840s and 1860s which saw severe cholera epidemics in india and in china, as well as a series of strong el ninõ events in the 1870s, 1880s and 1890s, resulting again in dearth or famine, cholera, and high mortality levels across many parts of asia due to associated droughts.39 such events had generated much speculation about the influence of unstable climates on human health and pushed british officials in asia to devote more attention to meteorological data gathering to identify patterns.40 36 ibid., p. 462. for discussion of the changing ideas on climatic changes, see: philipp lehmann, desert edens: colonial climate engineering in the age of anxiety (princeton university press, 2022), 1-37. 37 the singapore free press and mercantile advertiser, 3 august 1843, p. 1. 38 tna, adm 101/163, p. 29. 39 clive oppenheimer, clive, “climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: tambora volcano (indonesia) 1815,” progress in physical geography 27, no. 2 (2003): 230-259; g. gong, et al., “influence of climatic changes on agriculture” in historical climate changes in china, ed. p. zhang (shandong science and technology press, 1996), 406-25; davies, late victorian holocausts, 2001; mcmichael, woodward and muir, climate change and the health of nations, 209-19; rory p. d. walsh, “drought frequency changes in sabah and adjacent parts of northern borneo since the late nineteenth century and possible implications for tropical rain forest dynamics,” journal of tropical ecology 12, no. 3 (1996): 385-407. 40 richard grove, “the east india company, the raj and the el nino: the critical role played by colonial scientists in establishing the mechanisms of global climate teleconnections, 1770-1930,” in nature and the orient: the environmental history of south and southeast asia, ed. richard grove, vinita damodaran and satpal sangwan (oxford university press, 1998), 301-323. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 10 in hong kong, for example, staff at the seaman’s hospital had kept daily weather records during the 1850s and at the government civil hospital from the 1860s.41 in the straits settlements, the medical department had taken over the meteorological provision for the colony formally in 1869. these administrative changes had enabled more extensive correlative work to be undertaken as hospitals and departments accumulated long-term, detailed statistics.42 it also meant that the head of the medical department also had to be very familiar with the science of meteorology. thomas irving rowell, for instance, principle civil medical officer for the straits settlements was responsible for the first expansion of the meteorological registering station network across peninsula malaysia and singapore.43 the observations made by this stage were also far more thorough than they had been earlier in the century, now encompassing pressure, air and evaporation temperatures, vapour tension and relative humidity, alongside precipitation, temperature and narrative observations of the wind. the medical topography had been little more than a snapshot in time, building on the principles made famous by james clark and, later, robert scoresby jackson. the concept of stable local climates and their related healthful attributes had been destabilised by the reality displayed in multiple years’ worth of weather observations, that pointed to decadal shifts and regional extremes that could not always be explained by localised deforestation or urban development. in the straits settlements, the myth of the stable latitudes of the intra-tropical convergence zone were re-evaluated by colonial officials as one in ten or in one in twenty-year disasters became apparent to longer-term settlers. they noted for instance, major droughts affecting penang island in 1849, 1864 and 1877 and singapore in 1855, 1864, and 1877, the serious event in 1877 also reported by government meteorologists henry blanford in india and charles todd in australia.44 in hong kong, colonial surgeon philip ayers noted in his annual report for 1877 how the annual number of deaths had been higher than in any of the nine years’ previous citing the “atmospheric conditions” namely the “greater heat” and “considerable decrease in the rainfall” for the increase in mortality.45 another significant change was connected to new understanding of the vectors for disease. for example, in the straits settlements, cholera tended to be correlated to drought. however, in earlier droughts, such as that which occurred in 1849, the disease was connected to the rise of miasmatic airs but by the 1860s, there was an obvious shift in thought to connect cholera incidence to the lack of fresh water.46 dr f. k. hampshire, colonial surgeon at penang island, for instance, argued that although cholera was “at its height in the hot and dry months” it was the “consequent deficiency of wholesome drinking water” and associated decline in 41 hong kong government gazette (hereafter ga) abstract of meteorological observations made daily throughout the year 1853, at the seamans’ hospital, 29 april 1854; ga, meteorological observations taken at the government civil hospital, victoria, hong kong, 1st to 31st january 1861, 9 february 1861. 42 arnold, the tropics and the traveling gaze, 44. 43 ‘matters meteorological’, straits times weekly issue, 6 march 1886, p. 5. 44 don garden, droughts, floods & cyclones: el niños that shaped our colonial past (australian scholarly publishing, 2009); davies, late victorian holocausts. 45 sessional papers hong kong (hereafter sp) 1878, annual report of the colonial surgeon, hong kong for 1877, the hongkong government gazette, 6 july 1878, pp. 321-325. 46 ‘pinang’, the straits times, 3 july 1849, p. 3; ‘untitled’, the straits times, 27 february 1864, p. 41; ‘pinang’, singapore free press and mercantile advertiser, 12 may 1864, p. 3; untitled, the singapore free press and mercantile advertiser, 11 august 1864, p. 3. much of this work was undertaken by india-based doctors, for example: j. l. bryden, epidemic cholera in the bengal presidency: a report on the cholera of 1866-68, and its relations to the cholera of previous epidemics (office of the superintendent of government printing, 1887); j. m. cunningham, report on the cholera epidemic of 1875 in india (office of the superintendent of government printing, 1876), 6. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 11 public health that had caused the rise in cholera cases, rather than the weather per se in 1877.47 in hong kong, philip ayers also had the same opinion. writing in 1881 of the effects of heavy rains falling after a long period of drought, such as had occurred across the spring that year, he stated how these exact weather conditions were credited with bringing down levels of disease. this was not because of any miasma or thoughts about the effects of the weather on the body, but because the heavy rain “serves to flush the drains and subsoil”, thus improve sanitation infrastructures and public health.48 in 1883, ayers was to remark on how pleased he was to have the services of the newly established hong kong observatory (opened that year) so as that responsibility for meteorological observations could be transferred from the medical department to the observatory and in so doing, improve their quality and consistency.49 notwithstanding, after the transfer of the responsibility for meteorology to the hong kong observatory, weather reports or commentary cease to appear in the annual medical reports at all, even during major epidemics, such as the bubonic plague outbreak of 1894.50 indeed, hong kong’s medical reports under ayers’ direction were mainly concerned with the sanitary condition of the colony, which subject was to preoccupy him until he retired in 1895.51 the opening of the hong kong observatory in 1883 had coincided with a major cholera outbreak dealt with by another newly established institution: hong kong’s sanitary board. ayers had been instrumental in placing pressure on the colonial government to create this institution and to hire osbert chadwick, who as colonial consulting engineer, had undertaken a major report that looked at improving urban water infrastructure and linking domestic properties to a central supply, measures that were to be undertaken over the coming years.52 these steps reveal the linkages between new medical ideas on disease vectors and resultant investment in improving public health through clean water. in hong kong, comments on medical ailments that were instigated by the weather were taken up by dr william doberck, director of the hong kong observatory, after taking over the responsibility for meteorology from the medical department in 1883. he did not provide medical meteorology in the sense of correlations between weather patterns and illness, neither did he make anecdotal or pseudo-scientific comments on unhealthy or misamatic weathers, such as might have been done in the past. instead, he followed the general theory derived from observation that malarial fevers followed heavy rains and appeared to “be particularly severe among those who dwell near the nullahs” (drainage channels).53 the nullahs may have retained standing water for long periods which, as we know today, would have provided breeding grounds for malaria-bearing mosquitos. 47 robert l. jarman, ed., annual reports of the straits settlements, 1855-1941, vol. 2 1868-83, 1877 (archive editions., 1998), 340, 389. 48 ga 1882, annual report of the colonial surgeon, hong kong for 1881, the hongkong government gazette, 3 june 1882, pp. 510-517, 516. 49 ga 1884, annual report of the colonial surgeon, hong kong for 1883, the hongkong government gazette, 24 may 1884, pp. 443-453, 453. 50 sp 1895, annual report of the colonial surgeon, hong kong for 1894, papers laid before the legislative council, pp. 473-485. 51 obituary, philip b. c. ayers, c.m.g., m.r.c.s, 1899, british medical journal 2, p. 1140. 52 cecilia chu, “combating nuisance: sanitation, regulation, and the politics of property in colonial hong kong” in imperial contagions: medicine, hygiene, and cultures of planning in asia, ed. robert peckham and david m. pomfret (university of hong kong press, 2013), 28. 53 special report on rainfall by the hong kong observatory, 7 september 1891. printed in the hong kong government gazette, 16 january 1892, p. 26. the report was commissioned by the government following a major drought across 18901891. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 12 in singapore, similar transitions manifested. in april 1877, the straits times overland journal reported, “the great heat of the weather, and … prolonged drought … ha[d] exercised a baneful effect on the health of the community owing to the consequent scarcity and bad quality of the water”.54 the medical rationale given for the cause and extent of cholera in 1877 was markedly different from the medical precepts espoused by james randall martin only twenty years earlier. from his research in india, randall martin argued in the mid-1850s (at around the same time as john snow’s recognition of how the disease spread) that cholera was issued from within, and could not be introduced to a country by ships from infected places. according to randall martin, epidemic cholera was present in the very soil of the indian nation. while he did not rule out the possibility of conveyance by localised “ventilations” it could not, in his opinion, be passed from human-to-human.55 twenty-years later much of this had been debunked and expanded to other diseases too. doctor hampshire at penang island, for instance, had in 1877 also proposed, contrary to some popular belief, that the terrible drought was not the root of the rise of smallpox cases that year. this, he argued, was an introduced case, caused by infected sailors on a ship that had evaded quarantine at newly expanded facilities on a neighbouring island.56 shifting views on causality were also prevalent in responses to floods. in 1859, for example, charles courtney had argued that floods were beneficial as they washed away the miasma and stagnant water that led to malarial disease.57 within a few decades however, district and municipal doctors and health officers were drawing different conclusions on the matter. after hong kong experienced record rainfall on 29-30 may 1889, resulting in what has been referred to as the “great rainstorm of the century” for example, there was a notable spike in malarial cases.58 the colonial surgeon attributed the greater prevalence of malaria directly to the rainstorms, citing how soil wash and landslips deposited alluvial matter onto lower lying areas which, combined with high temperatures and humidity had created the perfect mix of wet mud and standing water for the “evolution” of the disease.59 his conclusions were supported by some of the highest district hospital admissions during june and a high incidence of malarial disease over the summer.60 contemporaries also noted how the floodwaters had polluted fresh water supplies and reservoirs with mud and other toxins, leading to an array of other health problems.61 likewise, in singapore three years later, the colony suffered an unseasonable flood “the like of which has never been known within the memory of the oldest residents” on 29 may 1892.62 the flood waters had inundated much of the town, causing roadside embankments to break, waste channels to become silted by landslips and urban watercourses to flood their 54 ‘fortnight’s summary’, straits times overland journal, 28 april 1877, p. 1. 55 martin, the influence of tropical climates on european constitutions &c, 297. 56 quarantine facilities had been expanded on pulau jerajah (later jerajak) for migrants from india and china arriving to work as indentured and coolie labour. the island was originally a leprosarium. see: mike gibby, jerajak: penang’s untold story (entrepot publishing, 2018). 57 tna, adm 101/163. appendix to the journals of the provisional battalion of royal marines, medical topography of china and japan by charles courtney, 1857-61. 58 michael j. jones, a history of hong kong typhoons from 1874 (ppp company limited, 2017), 140. 59 sp 1890, colonial surgeon’s report for 1889, 27 june 1890, p. 330. 60 ibid., pp. 310, 314 61 jones, a history of hong kong typhoons from 1874, 140. 62 tna, co276-25: municipal engineer’s report for may 1892, 29 july 1892, p. 2067; ‘heavy rainstorm in singapore: extensive flooding’, the singapore free press and mercantile advertiser, 30 may 1892, p.2. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 13 banks.63 a particularly high incidence of disease was noted that year. comparing mortality rates in singapore with comparable indian cities, the health officer for singapore concluded that his station was far less healthy than those in india.64 in his opinion, the main contributing factors were poor sanitation, overcrowding and endemic poverty but the flood, coming outside of the normal rainy season, had served to raise the disease and mortality figures far higher by exacerbating the effects of pre-existing problems. 65 the excess water had inundated and blocked the drains, for example, allowing waste matter to be deposited over roads, into houses and public places. many of the poorer chinese inhabitants, for example, lived in overcrowded homes built slightly below ground level which had become inundated with mud and foul water.66 alex gentle, president of singapore’s municipal commission was to note that even the drains in the better european districts had become “defective” and “unwholesome.”67 despite the availability of pumping engines, standing water had been left in many areas for a considerable time, prompting fears of a malaria crisis.68 then, on 18th january 1893, disaster struck again, with the worst floods in twenty years. land slippages were unrelenting for several weeks after the flood itself, submerging several roads and houses as more than 25,300 tons of earth continued “its slow advance.”69 it was no surprise that the registered death rate for january was the highest of that year, with fevers and bowel complaints likely connected to the damp conditions and polluted water noted as the chief cause.70 the gradual recognition of cyclical atmospheric patterns and teleconnected events across regions (an important step toward realising the el niño southern oscillation), pioneering work in better understanding disease vectors, such as microbial vectors rather than miasma in causing cholera, had enabled doctors to revaluate their assumptions about the illeffects of humidity or marshes, and to work with new theories as to the health impacts of climatic instability. norman lockyer, for example, had drawn attention to an eleven-year cycle of the indian monsoon, which he had related to sunspot activity, work which was then built upon by william hunter, director general of statistics to the government of india who connected this cycle with famine. 71 not that this should tell a story of a teleological progression, however. henry blanford for instance, the first director of the indian meteorological department had expressed doubts over lockyer’s ideas and many other doctors remained undecided as to the impacts of too much, or too little, rainfall on different types of diseases and why.72 thomas irving rowell too, had noted in his 1882 annual medical report for the straits settlements how, despite the prevalence of cholera more generally, singapore had remained relatively free of the disease. this happy fact he attributed to the “periodic and 63 tna, co276-25: municipal engineer’s report for may 1892, 29 july 1892, p. 2066; ‘municipal progress in may’, straits times weekly issue, 29 june 1892, p. 8. 64 tna, co276-25: singapore health officer’s report for may 1892, 29 july 1892, p. 2068; ‘singapore municipal matters’, the singapore free press and mercantile advertiser, 28 june 1892, p. 10. 65 tna, co276-24: health officer’s report for singapore for april 1892, 10 june 1892, p. 1776. 66 ‘heavy rainstorm in singapore’, the singapore free press and mercantile advertiser (weekly), 31 may 1892, p. 346. 67 tna, co276-25: municipal commissioners’ progress report for may 1892, 29 july 1892, p. 2065. 68 ‘the circus’, daily advertiser, 3 june 1892, p. 3. 69 tna, co276-26: supplement: municipal engineer’s report for january 1893, 10 february 1893, p. 263. 70 tna, co276-26: appendix e-g, deaths registered in the straits settlements, during each month of 1892, 28 april 1893, p. 419r-v. 71 noman lockyer and w. w. hunter, “sunspots and famines”, nineteenth century 2 (1877): 583-602; katherine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (university of chicago press, 2005), 274-275. 72 henry blanford, “the eleven-year periodical fluctuation of the carnatic rainfall”, nature 36 (1887): 227-29. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 14 frequent squalls of wind and rain which visit us and purify the atmosphere,” in addition to refreshing the water supply.73 this trend continued into the twentieth century, where traditional and more modern views co-existed in popular and medical culture. cholera outbreaks in india are a case in point, where sheldon watts has argued that studies often presented contradictory findings.74 in hong kong, the 1918 influenza pandemic and an epidemic form of meningitis were both thought by many to have been exacerbated by the weather. detailed reports made by the medical officer for health in hong kong during the 1910s, dr gale, correlated drops in temperature with increases in infections, with a corresponding decline on warmer days. 75 likewise, with unseasonably low temperatures and rainy days in july 1918, a singapore based medical practitioner argued that the “flu would only begin to pass with the arrival of the northeast monsoon in late november.”76 similar sentiments were expressed by the president of the municipal council of singapore that year, mr w. peel, who espoused in an october meeting that the council had done everything they could to contain and treat the flu scourge, only a change of weather could now eliminate it.77 indeed, the relationship of climate with health also continued to be given credence by many high-profile doctors including kenneth black, professor of surgery at the king edward vii college of medicine in singapore. black had argued vociferously in 1932 that climate “is probably one of the most important factors in the life of man.” climate, he said, “has a direct effect upon health and an indirect effect through food, incidence of disease and mode of life.”78 borrowing directly from geographer ellsworth huntington, he was a supporter of a form of climatic determinism that considered certain regions (mainly european and north american) optimum climates for energy and health. black also expounded on the idea that “noxious stimuli” (of a type unspecified) present in the atmosphere contributed directly to a decline in mental health. 79 although times were changing – indeed contemporary psychiatrists had remarkably different perspectives on the causes of mental illness – black’s medical perspectives could have come straight from a nineteenth century medical journal.80 indeed, as cecilia chu has argued for hong kong, the narrative surrounding public health was riven with preconceptions and stereotypes, many relating to the cultural practices of different races’ apropos hygiene, as much as assumptions regarding climate as a causal factor in disease.81 anyone who has been inspired by historian dane kennedy’s work on climatic anxieties will not be surprised. as kennedy argued, rather than declining as new biomedical theories emerged, climatic causation saw something of a resurgence in the early twentieth century.82 73 “dr rowell’s report”, straits times weekly issue, 5 july 1883, p. 6. 74 sheldon watts, “from rapid change to stasis: official responses to cholera in british-ruled india and egypt: 1860 to c. 1921,” journal of world history 12, no. 2 (2001): 368. 75 sp, 1918: report on the investigations of the outbreak of epidemic meningitis in hong kong by first lieutenant peter k. olitsky for the rockefeller institute for medical research, p. 68. 76 “illness in singapore”, the straits times, 3 july 1918, p. 7. 77 “the influenza scourge”, the straits times, 26 october 1918, p. 10. 78 kenneth black, “health and climate with special reference to malaya,” malayan medical journal 7, no. 3 (1932): 99. 79 ibid., 101-2. 80 dr van wulfften palthe, writing on mental illness suffered by europeans in batavia gave explanations including loneliness, distance from home and monotony of the environment as key stimuli: palthe van wulfften, “psychiatry and neurology in the tropics,” malayan medical journal 8, no. 3 (1933): 133. 81 chu, “combating nuisance”, 17. 82 kennedy, “the perils of the midday sun”, 118. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 15 the fall of medical meteorology? the first decades of the twentieth century brought significant changes in medical thinking that led to a further decline in the fundamental tenets of medical meteorology. work on disease transmission and tropical illnesses, such as that by ronald ross on malaria, patrick manson on parasitology, or james cantlie on leprosy and plague combined with urban health reforms at the local and metropolitan level, aimed at improving sanitation and living conditions, which were by then accepted as leading cause of the incubation and spread of disease. the colonies drew directly from the british urban reform movements, but also from their own experiences on the ground, especially in terms of managing more extreme weathers than was the case in britain. the 1907 publication of the simpson report for instance, a ninety-four-page milestone in straits settlements public health history, is case-in-point. dr william simpson was an expert on tropical health and sanitation who later became a professor and founder of the london school of hygiene and tropical medicine.83 his report on singapore and george town, penang conducted during 1906 overwhelmingly pointed towards structural issues, especially housing design and in sanitary engineering, as the root cause of ill health and mortality there.84 flooding and poor mitigation such as ill-functioning, badly designed, poorly situated and easily overwhelmed culverts, channels and canals, were studied as a catalyst in this quagmire of cause and effect and, while the climate was still considered trying (especially for europeans), the discourse was gradually being reframed toward climate as a factor in creating the conditions in which disease thrived, rather than being a cause, of illness.85 this shift can be seen clearly in simpson’s views on kampong boyan.86 this kampong (the malay word for village) was dominated by baweanese migrants originally from east java, many of whom continued to replicate their traditional ways of living in wooden, communal homes known as pondok in singapore. their community was built on mud flats adjacent the tidal rochor river and mainly comprised mangrove swamps. 87 simpson argued that traditionally the baweanese style of stilt houses were well suited to damp, tidal environments but that in this instance, the spaces underneath the houses between the piles had been filled with extra rooms to accommodate the growing population. now, every time the tide rose, or there were heavy rains or floods, these dwelling spaces would flood and inhabitants would end up living in these damp conditions for days and even weeks on end.88 in george town too, he pointed to the deficiencies of the storm-water drainage system which was, in his opinion, compounding tidal flooding into a serious hazard. obstructed drains caused sea water to regurgitate and overflow, causing floods where none should have existed, creating a corresponding increase in malaria.89 83 r. a. baker r. a. and r. a. bayliss, “william john ritchie simpson (1855-1931): public health and tropical medicine,” medical history 31 (1987): 450-65. 84 wellcome trust library, wa67o.js6. w. j. simpson, report on the sanitary condition of singapore (1907). 85 “a string of enquiries”, the straits times, 9 september 1902, p. 4. 86 the name kampong boyan is not used in modern singapore, the area is now incorporated into kampong kapor. its location falls between modern kallang road, jalan besar, and lavender street. see map of singapore showing the principle residences and places of interest, 1913 published by fraser and neave ltd, singapore, available at national library of singapore’s spatial discovery website: https://search.nlb.gov.sg/spatialdiscovery/app/ 87 the rochor was a tidal river until the 1950s: yong soon tan, et al., clean, green, and blue: singapore’s journey toward environmental and water sustainability (institute of southeast asian studies, 2009), 205. national library of singapore, singaporeinfopedia, the baweanese: https://eresources.nlb.gov.sg/infopedia/articles/sip_1069_2007-06-20.html 88 simpson, 1907, p. 27. 89 ibid., p. 94. https://search.nlb.gov.sg/spatialdiscovery/app/ https://eresources.nlb.gov.sg/infopedia/articles/sip_1069_2007-06-20.html history of meteorology 12 (2025) 16 changing medical thought was not the only dynamic at work to undermine medical meteorology’s place, however. despite medical officer irving rowell’s hand in establishing more meteorological registering stations across malaya, for example, many of the new stations were not linked to medical facilities and, just as in hong kong after the opening of the observatory, the medical department had less and less to do with the weather by the early twentieth century. indeed, by the 1910s responsibility for meteorology was being taken away from the medical department in entirety. placed first under the museum’s service for almost two decades, it then enjoyed a brief two-year stint under the surveyor general’s department prior to being established as a formal department in 1929.90 by the 1920s, it was apparent that aviation (commercial and military) and agriculture were the key drivers of meteorological investment by colonial governments, not health. the duties of the new malayan meteorological service, for example, were devoted to forecasting for these industries. their reports did not reference disease, although only a generation before, doctors had paid attention to nascent meteorological science and meteorologists had written about health. as skydsgaard noted for denmark, enthusiasm for medical meteorology had waned over the turn of the century as alternative explanations for epidemic disease gained credence and as mark carey has argued, the notion of tropics gradually turned from somewhere unhealthy to somewhere desirable in popular culture.91 although medical meteorology may have ceased to be a valid field of research, the role of weather – especially extreme weather in disease causation, remained. in 1945, for instance, survey reports completed by the british’ inter-service topographical department on the canton and hong kong region, published climatic and medical information together. referring to linkages between the rainy season and the incidence of malaria, these reports discussed how the rains increased insect vectors and created conditions for other disease bearing insects to thrive. elsewhere, the dangers of heat stress on military troops became an established field of enquiry. such studies continue across the tropical world today and with good reason.92 thus, these preoccupations have not disappeared, only been reinvigorated in light of new medical knowledge and concerns. anthropogenic climate change is increasing the number and frequency of extreme events and, in tandem, decreasing societal resilience to disease. many parts of south, east and southeast asia will be especially vulnerable to hazards including floods, droughts and heatwaves, all of which can increase the spread of disease vectors, increase mortality and impact on human health.93 while modern knowledge about the relationship of climate and disease causation pivots on complex systems of interdependencies rather than the correlative patterns and simple climatic determinism of medical meteorology, some of the basic ideas and principles connecting climate and health under discussion today would not seem entirely alien to our nineteenth century forebears. medical meteorology may have had its time, but its basic logic remains. 90 tna, co273/541 sir george maxwell and herbert c. robinson, ‘a meteorological department for malaya’, 1927. 91 skydsgaard, “it’s probably in the air”, 218: mark carey, “inventing caribbean climates: how science, medicine, and tourism changed tropical weather from deadly to healthy,” osiris 26 (2011): 129-41. 92 tna, wo252/1467. hong kong-canton area-climate medical, inter-service topographical department, january 1945, ff. 7, 11. 93 c. b. field, et al., “summary for policymakers” in climate change 2014: impacts, adaption and vulnerability part a: global and sectoral aspects. contribution of working group ii to the fifth assessment report of the ippc (cambridge university press, 2014), 6. microsoft word 10) nielsen.docx history of meteorology 8 (2017) 202 scientific forecasting? performing objectivity at the uk’s meteorological office, 1960s-1970s janet martin-nielsen janet.nielsen@utoronto.ca aarhus universitet “it was time that meteorology had its place in the sun” john mason1 when basil john mason, an academic cloud physicist, arrived at the uk’s meteorological office in the autumn of 1965 to take over as director, meteorology — the discipline, its methods, and its vision of the future — was in flux. with the advent of computers, the accumulation of before inconceivable quantities of data, and the great advances in numerical forecasting stateside, meteorology was developing a new culture: an objective, numerical and scientific culture, mason argued, that would raise the discipline into the league of the highly respected sciences. this paper investigates mason’s efforts to shape this new culture and to cement the uk as a leading nation in meteorology during his early tenure at the meteorological office. it highlights three guiding aims of mason’s work, each centered on a particular form of authority. first, mason argued for the epistemic authority of numerical weather models on the basis of their objective interpretation of physical theories. he then used this epistemic authority to build social authority in models – that is, to make them be seen as trustworthy testifiers and adjudicators – and, finally, to boost the social authority of the meteorological office itself.2 these aims shaped and were shaped by the many forces at work at the meteorological office in the mid-to-late 1960s and the 1970s: feelings of inadequacy compared to other sciences, accusations about poor 1 john mason referring to the 1960s in an interview conducted by r.j. ogden, 4 june 1985 (royal meteorological society distinguished voices archive, hereafter ‘rms dva’), part 1, 1:18:02 2 mike hulme discusses forms of authority in hulme, “how climate models gain and exercise authority”, in k. hastrup & m. skrydstrup, eds., the social life of climate change models: anticipating nature (london: routledge, 2013), 30-44 history of meteorology 8 (2017) 203 forecast accuracy, budgetary cutbacks, and new industries demanding new meteorological services, amongst others. by investigating mason’s actions through these lenses, this paper delivers a new look at the changing culture of meteorology in the uk, and speaks to the broader epistemic, technical and social ‘relocation’ of meteorology as a means of speaking objectively about the near future in the post-war period. john mason arrives at the meteorological office on october 1, 1965, a young cloud physicist from imperial college (london) arrived at the uk’s meteorological office to take over as director. at 42 years of age, john mason (19232015) was decidedly young to be named a senior civil servant. moreover, mason had no experience in government or administration: trained in physics and mathematics at the university of nottingham, he had spent his early career as a lecturer in meteorology (1948-1961) and then as a professor of cloud physics (1961-1965) at imperial college.3 his work on rainmaking, or weather modification, had made mason’s name in both the british and us meteorological communities in the 1950s, and, all the more, put him in the public eye: the duke of edinburgh even came to hear mason speak on rainmaking at the british association, and a popular softcover version of mason’s book clouds, rain and rainmaking sold over 15,000 copies.4 the us ambassador to the uk personally invited mason to advise on rainmaking in the us, where cloud seeding and other weather modification techniques were a booming business,5 and mason’s american lecture tour of in 1959-1960 resulted in many job offers, all with salaries much higher than mason’s english salary at the time – but he and his wife decided that they did not want to raise their young family in america.6 in 1965, mason was elected to the royal society, one of 44 scientists from the uk and the commonwealth selected to join the uk’s foremost learned society that year. it was on the basis of this prodigious and prolific early career that lord shackleton, minister of defence for the royal air force, offered mason the directorship of the meteorological office.7 the offer came as a surprise to mason and, after considerable reflection and consultation, he accepted, confidently declaring to shackleton that he would “build it up to be the best met service in the world”.8 mason’s portrait hanging in 3 mason’s university studies were interrupted by the war when, in 1944, he was called up by the royal air force and trained as a radar instructor, eventually serving in the uk, india and burma. he returned to nottingham after the war and completed his degree in 1947. 4 john mason, interview conducted by hessam taba, november 1994 (wmo bulletin interviews, vol. 44, issue 4), p. 318. 5 for rainmaking in the us in the 1950s, see kristine c. harper, ‘climate control: united states weather modification in the cold war and beyond’, endeavour 32 (2008), 20-26. 6 john mason, interview conducted by r.j. ogden, 4 june 1985 (rms dva), part 1, 43.00. 7 at this time, never in the history of the meteorological office had the director been an internal appointment. in this sense, mason’s appointment was not an aberration. he was, in fact, interviewed for the position, but the decision had for all intents and purposes been made in advance. 8 john mason, interview conducted by r.j. ogden, 4 june 1985 (rms dva), part 1, 1:16:00. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 204 london’s national portrait gallery, a bromide print from the autumn of 1967, shows a man who looks younger than his age, his dark hair carefully coiffed, sitting in a relaxed stance and seeming to engage directly with the artist with just a hint of a smile. upon assuming directorship of the meteorological office, mason oversaw a budget of £7.2 million and directed a staff of nearly 4,000 employees spread across 128 domestic and 43 overseas facilities.9 of these staff, 1,000 worked at the meteorological office’s bracknell headquarters (opened in 1961 in the new town of bracknell in berkshire) whilst most of the rest were deployed with the royal air force at home and overseas, manning a 90-station world-wide weather service.10 the meteorological office’s mandate, and thus mason’s responsibility, spoke to the dual military-civilian nature of the organization, as well as to the office’s mid-19th century origins as a marine weather warning service: the office was to “provide a comprehensive weather service for the royal air force, civil aviation, agriculture, shipping, public utilities, industry, commerce and the general public, and undertake the greater part of the country’s research effort in meteorology and atmospheric physics”.11 from the first days of his appointment as director, mason proved a bold thinker, willing to take risks and to cross his senior advisors, not afraid to make hard decisions, and with a keen ability to navigate the currents of government and politics. through his tenure as director, from 1965 to 1983, mason brought a strong vision and agenda to the meteorological office, shaping and changing the uk’s national weather service – and his forceful personality (he had a “rather imperious persona”, according to colleague john day)12 gained him both admirers and detractors amongst his subordinates at the meteorological office and his masters at the ministry of defence.13 “the most outstanding quality and characteristic of john mason is perhaps his extreme frankness”, wrote the world meteorological organisation’s hessam taba in an otherwise affectionate piece: “he expresses his opinions so forcefully that, at times, it borders on aggression”.14 mason’s leadership style can be clearly seen in his first major decision as director of the meteorological office, the inauguration of operational numerical weather prediction. just weeks after assuming the directorship of the meteorological office, mason made his mark by declaring that numerical weather prediction would be made operational – effective 9 this was the budget for the 1965-1966 financial year. budget: john mason, ‘the future development of the meteorological office’, the meteorological magazine 107 (1978: 129-140), 129-130. staff: john mason, ‘the meteorological office – today and tomorrow’, contemporary physics 8 (1967), 73 10 john mason, ‘the role of meteorology in the national economy (based on a lecture given at the summer meeting of the royal meteorological society in brighton, 26 july 1966)’, weather 21 (1966), 383. 11 john mason, the new age of weather forecasting, london, 1967 (national meteorological archive, exeter hereafter ‘nma’, p134(maso), item id 794728-1001), 1. 12 john day, ‘a tribute to a colleague and friend’, yambill valley news-register, 9 july 2005. 13 from 1919 until 1964, the meteorological office fell under the purview of the air ministry, the british government body responsible for managing the royal air force. after 1964, when the air ministry merged with the war office and the admiralty to form the ministry of defence, the meteorological office also moved under the purview of the ministry of defence. 14 john mason, interview conducted by hessam taba, november 1994 (wmo bulletin interviews, vol. 44, issue 4), p. 316. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 205 immediately. this decision, and this attitude more broadly, were opposed by senior staff who thought that more research and testing – at least six to twelve months more – was needed, but mason pushed forwards contrary to their advice, determined to lift numerical forecasting “out of research mode and into real-time”.15 for mason, numerical forecasting, and computers more broadly, offered a means of bringing meteorology into the league of the highly respected sciences: “big computers come to the rescue”, he announced boldly and publicly.16 numerical forecasting had first been discussed at the meteorological office in the spring of 1948 during a meeting with the department of meteorology at imperial college, but it took more than a decade for the meteorological office to obtain its own computer for numerical work.17 through the late 1940s and early 1950s, scientists in the meteorological office’s forecast research division were unsure at best about numerical forecasting, and enthusiasm for the enterprise was low. “the mathematics are only approximate and there is still no evidence that the computer will do as well as the conventional forecaster”, stated the meteorological office’s gloomy annual report for the year ending on march 31, 1952.18 sutcliffe, then director of research, worried that new recruits trained in computer methods wouldn’t have “the deep feeling for the weather systems [like the] real forecasters”, and wouldn’t develop the ability to make intuitive judgements about the weather.19 tellingly, sutcliffe declined to mention computer techniques at all in his speech on the future of research and science at the meteorological office during the office’s centenary celebrations. and at a discussion with high-profile swedish-us meteorologist carl-gustaf rossby and us meteorologist joseph smagorinsky in 1954, meteorological office researchers bemoaned that their rudimentary numerical model, tested on a borrowed leo 1 computer, was “not an adequate forecasting tool”.20 matters began to improve later that year when meteorological office researchers gained night-time access to the university of manchester’s ferranti mark 1 computer.21 “numerical forecasting was still in its infancy”, reported famed scottish wartime meteorologist james m. 15 john mason, interview conducted by hessam taba, november 1994 (wmo bulletin interviews, vol. 44, issue 4), p. 320. 16 ‘press conference’, meteorological magazine 95 (1966), 29. 17 for early numerical weather forecasting in the uk, see malcolm walker, history of the meteorological office (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2011), p. 317ff; anders persson, ‘early operational numerical weather prediction outside the usa: an historical introduction, part iii: endurance and mathematics – british nwp, 1948– 1965’, meteorological applications 12 (2005), 381-413. for the meteorological office in the postwar era, see alexander hall, risk, blame and expertise: the meteorological office and extreme weather in post-war britain (phd thesis, university of manchester, 2012). 18 annual report of the director of the meteorological office presented by the meteorological committee to the secretary of state for air for the year ending 31 march 1952 (nma, orgs ukmo a dup 1951/52, item id 38078000284887). 19 reginald c. sutcliffe, interview conducted by j.m.c. burton, 1981-1983 (rms dva), 19:33, 22:55. 20 meteorological office discussion: dynamical forecasting by numerical methods, the meteorological magazine 83 (1954), 176. the leo 1 computer was owned by the food giant j. lyons & co. and located at their cadby hall office in london. 21 in the post-war years, manchester was one of the uk’s three leading computer centers, along with cambridge university and the national physical laboratory in teddington. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 206 stagg, but “considerable progress was being made”.22 the following year, the government gave the meteorological office funds to buy its own ferranti mercury, which the researchers nicknamed meteor: a valve machine with 5,000 bytes of main memory, capable of doing 30,000 calculations a second. however, plagued by delays, meteor only entered use at the meteorological office’s dunstable office in early 1959, a setback which exacerbated the gap between the meteorological office and the us weather bureau in terms of numerical weather prediction – a gap which mason would strive to close during his tenure.23 even with the arrival of meteor, the meteorological office’s senior scientists retained, on the whole, cautious-to-negative attitudes towards numerical weather prediction. in 1960, a year after meteor finally came into use, sutcliffe wrote that he was “rather pleased to be able to say [that nwp is] not yet a great success story” – and, he continued, there is “no danger of the art of forecasting being entirely superseded”.24 sutcliffe’s attitude, which contrasted with that of mason, was representative of the older generation’s way of thinking about and doing meteorology: one in which human experience trumped machine capacity. for mason, the critical advantage of numerical forecasting was that it replaced traditional forecasting – subjective and reliant on the imperfect experience and knowledge of individuals – with computers: objective tools capable of bringing meteorology to the next level.25 the meteorological office’s advisory council agreed with mason’s vision: to move swiftly towards implementing operational computer forecasting and analysis across all areas of the office, and to replace human data processing by computers wherever possible – even if the results weren’t satisfactory at first. “at present computed analyses do not always match in accuracy those produced by conventional methods and occasionally there may be serious discrepancies”, the committee reported later, but still “complete reliability on machine analysis would be of great value in many ways, and efforts will be directed towards this end”.26 22 meteorological office discussion: dynamical forecasting by numerical methods, the meteorological magazine 83 (1954), 182. as the chief weather forecaster to general dwight d. eisenhower, stagg set the date for the allied invasion of europe of june 6, 1944. 23 for the situation in the us, as well as more general accounts of the rise of numerical weather forecasting, see kristine c. harper, weather by the numbers: the genesis of modern meteorology (cambridge, ma: mit press, 2008) and frederik nebeker, calculating the weather: meteorology in the twentieth century (san diego: academic press, 1995), among others. 24 r.c. sutcliffe, ‘weather forecasting as a problem in fluid dynamics’, yearbook of the physical society of london (1960), 9-15. 25 meteorological committee: a new computer for the meteorological office, september 1967 (document mc/p75, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, national archives, kew, hereafter ‘kew’), p. 1. 26 meteorological committee: progress in numerical forecasting in the meteorological office, 28 september 1966 (document mc/p70, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, kew), p. 5. not everyone at the meteorological office shared mason’s enthusiasm for numerical weather prediction in the mid-to-late 1960s. the office’s 1967 annual report noted that some scientists were still cautious, treating nwp as a “second opinion” and comparing human and computer forecasts “all the time”, but still mason thought that “it appeared likely that the forecasters would soon accept the numerical forecast as it stood” – and, indeed, mason’s prediction was correct and by the 1970s the voices of dissent were all but gone (meteorological committee: director-general’s annual report, 31 january 1967 (document mc/p72, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, kew), p. 4). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 207 in 1960-1961, the meteorological office undertook full-scale real-time numerical weather prediction experiments on meteor, only to conclude that the new computer was too slow and too unreliable for nwp to be made operational.27 “the ferranti mercury was a very useful machine; it was the fastest we could get at the time”, recalled then-director sutton, “but it was never really quite adequate to provide a forecast in useful time with the sort of resolution and area we needed”.28 and at a regular monday evening discussion in the autumn of 1960, the office’s c.j. boyden dismissed computer methods out of hand, asserting that “at present there is no adequate substitute for the subjective assessment of forecasts based on experience in using them”.29 still, in the following years, from 1961 to 1965, numerical methods were gradually integrated into daily operations and meteorological office scientists began to warm up to the technology: in late 1961, researchers described the 24-hour numerical forecasts as “encouraging”, and by early 1965 the meteorological research committee reported that the meteorological office’s scientific staff had developed and run trials demonstrating “not only that the mathematical forecast charts were superior to those produced by mind and hand, but also that the process could be used as part of the routine forecasting operations of the central forecasting office”.30 with a mandate to oversee the meteorological office and advise the secretary of state for air on matters pertaining to the national weather service, the meteorological research committee was a powerful and influential force.31 with this slow yet sure change in attitudes, coupled with mason’s firm belief that “traditional techniques have been pushed nearly as far as seems profitable” and that computers offered the only potential for “dramatic improvements in the quality and range of the weather forecast”, mason decided to make numerical weather prediction operational.32 numerical weather forecasts were inaugurated at the meteorological office on november 2, 1965, just a month after mason took over as director. as a number of historians of science have noted, objectivity cannot just simply be claimed, but must be performed. daston and 27 for a description and analysis of these experiments, see meteorological office discussion: numerical forecasting at dunstable, the meteorological magazine 90 (1961), 77-88. 28 j.s. sawyer, interview conducted by phil drazin, 12 august 1985 (rms dva), 46:42. 29 meteorological office discussion: numerical forecasting at dunstable, the meteorological magazine 90 (1961), 86. 30 1961: meteorological office discussion: numerical forecasting at dunstable, the meteorological magazine 90 (1961), 77. 1965: meteorological committee: changes in assistant directorates, 1 january 1965 (document mc/p62, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, kew), p. 1. 31 the meteorological research committee, founded in 1941 by then-director of the meteorological office nelson k. johnson, consisted of a chairman and other non-official scientific members invited to serve by the secretary of state for air, as well as the director and two senior staff members of the meteorological office, and officers from the admiralty, air staff, ministry of aviation and war office. (notes for the information of members of the meteorological research committee and its sub-committees, air ministry – meteorological office, july 1961 (document m.20001/61, file bj5/321, meteorological research committee: minutes, kew); meteorological research committee: constitution and terms of reference, approved by the secretary of state for air on 17th march 1961 (document g.42288(a)/hvc/6/61/100, file bj5/321, meteorological research committee: minutes, kew).) for more on the history of the committee, see f.j. scrase, ‘the history of the meteorological research committee’, the meteorological magazine 91 (1962), 310-314. 32 ‘press conference’, meteorological magazine 95 (1966), 29-30. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 208 galison note that the pursuit of objectivity first became associated with scientific practice in the nineteenth century, an age when techniques of mechanical reproduction spawned new faith in representation untainted by the subjectivity of its human creators.33 this conceptualisation of objectivity subsequently bifurcated into the chasing of fixed and universal laws, and the exercise of trained expert judgment. weather forecasting, phaedra daipha argues,34 has always oscillated somewhere in between these two poles, never settling on either, despite what some forecasters may claim.35 appealing to a popular understanding of objectivity as mechanical reproduction, early proponents of numerical weather forecasting had to engage in what shapin calls the ‘credibility economy’, by which expert claims are publicly sorted according to their reliability as descriptors of the world.36 by carefully stage-managing the public performance of a new, computer-driven meteorology, new claims of objectivity could be made, with public credibility and social authority at stake.37 thus, on the same day as the inauguration of numerical forecasts, mason presided over the office’s first-ever press conference, where he proclaimed a new dawn in weather forecasting – a move which his deputy, a.c. best, thought to be a “great risk” for the office’s reputation.38 while much of the credibility economy which shapin describes concerns scientific claims where virtual witnesses have no direct access themselves to the phenomena in question, the success and credibility of weather forecasting is easily adjudicated on by anybody who cares to look out of the window. standing before more than 100 journalists and cameramen from the bbc, national newspapers and the technical press, mason marked the introduction of numerical weather forecasting in the uk with great confidence: “today is a landmark in the history of forecasting in the office”, he declared, “because this afternoon you will see the production of our first routine numerical weather forecast by the computer”.39 britain, he continued in his first push to build social authority in the meteorological office, could now look forward to increasingly accurate weather forecasts underpinned by modern, objective technologies. as the press gallery watched the meteorological office’s line printer slowly produce the uk’s first routine numerical forecasting chart, mason patiently answered questions for nearly an hour and then distributed souvenir copies of the chart to all attendees. the formalities over, the press gallery toured the central forecasting office at bracknell and chatted over coffee with senior members of mason’s staff. the next day, the event was featured 33 lorraine daston and peter galison, objectivity (new york, ny: zone books, 2007) 34 phaedra daipha, masters of uncertainty: weather forecasters and the quest for ground truth (chicago, il: university of chicago press, 2015) 35 mark monmonier, air apparent: how meteorologists learned to map, predict, and dramatize weather (chicago, il: university of chicago press, 1999); james r. fleming, inventing atmospheric science: bjerknes, rossby, wexler, and the foundations of modern meteorology (cambridge, ma: mit press, 2016) 36 steven shapin, ‘cordelia’s love: credibility and the social studies of science’, perspectives on science, 3 (1995), 255–75 37 compare with the accounts given in stephen hilgartner, science on stage: expert advice as public drama (stanford, ca: stanford university press, 2000). 38 quoted in anders persson, ‘early operational numerical weather prediction outside the usa: an historical introduction, part iii: endurance and mathematics – british nwp, 1948-1965’, meteorological applications 12 (2005), 403. 39 ‘press conference’, meteorological magazine 95 (1966), p.28. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 209 prominently in newspapers including the guardian and daily telegraph, as well as the daily express, which devoted its highly-coveted centre spread to the forecast – and, much to best’s relief, this coverage was approving as the computer had correctly predicted cold winds and frost across the british isles. mason’s decision to make numerical weather forecasting operational and the way in which he announced this decision – in the public eye at the meteorological office’s first-ever press conference, designed to be “a big show for radio and television” – are representative of the self-assured, bold and even brash leadership style he brought to the office.40 indeed, many aspects of mason’s vision for the meteorological office – the principles which guided his tenure as director – are visible in this story. this vision includes fostering a ‘hard science’ culture, taking a commercial approach to the meteorological office’s services and information, pursuing objectivity to build epistemic and social authority in face of complaints, and maintaining the meteorological office’s standing in comparison to its main counterpart, the us weather bureau. mason’s vision, it is important to emphasize, was a product of the times and culture in which he found himself, shaped and influenced by the rise of numerical computers and computing power as well as by domestic and international political currents and events. what makes a science? mason’s embrace of numerical weather prediction, and computers in meteorology more broadly, went hand-in-hand with his belief that physics and mathematics (what i will call the ‘hard sciences’) represented the epitome of objective scientific practices. mason believed along with a growing segment of the uk and uk scientific communities that computers were the path to the future. this sentiment was also growing in public spheres at the same time, as witness by events such as ibm’s popular demonstrations of computer translation and handwriting recognition at the 1964 world’s fair.41 with mason’s appointment as director, ‘hard science’ became a leading mantra at the meteorological office: physics and mathematics enjoyed a privileged status within the office’s research branches, whilst other approaches to weather were de-emphasized. to mason, a cloud physicist by training, the discipline of meteorology lacked the prestige which physics and mathematics enjoyed – a disparity he wanted to rectify first by bringing numerical modelling techniques to the meteorological office, and then by using these techniques to raise the prestige of meteorology, and finally to build social authority in the office itself. to mason, numerical modelling constituted a paradigm shift in meteorology, a technique that promised to radically change the landscape of that discipline. computers, he wrote in 1967, 40 john mason, interview conducted by hessam taba, november 1994 (wmo bulletin interviews, vol. 44, issue 4), p.320. 41 see, f.ex., jon agar, ‘what difference did computers make?’, social studies of science 36 (2006), 869-907 and paul n. edwards, the closed world: computers and the politics of discourse in cold war america (mit press, 1997). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 210 represented the end of “a long period of steady but unspectacular development in meteorology”; with numerical techniques, he continued, the meteorological office stood on “the threshold of a new era, with unprecedented opportunities for increasing our scientific understanding of the atmosphere”.42 “traditional and rather subjective methods of forecasting do not seem capable of much further development and improvement”, he wrote in contemporary physics in the same year: “the need for more detail, accuracy and reliability over longer periods, involving the handling and assimilation of even vaster quantities of data in very limited periods of time, has led to the use of computers for producing objective forecasts with a minimum of human intervention”.43 the meteorological office’s ability to routinely generate 36-hour forecasts, he emphasized, was an accomplishment which could never have been achieved with human power alone. this language, teeming with references to subjectivity and objectivity, is important for understanding mason’s thinking, and likewise the attitudes he instilled at the meteorological office early in his tenure.44 for mason, the role of objectively-implemented physical theory in meteorology was critical to the future of that discipline: numerical methods, he argued “are objective, logical, mathematical exercises based on a firm structure of physical theory”, whilst traditional weather forecasting “depend[s] heavily on the experience, skill and judgement of the individual human”.45 the time was ripe, mason continued, to move away from “traditional, empirical and largely subjective methods” and to devote energy and resources to numerical techniques — a situation made possible by technological development as well as by a growing desire in political circles for scientific solutions. mason’s ‘hard science’ approach brought a shift in recruitment strategies at the meteorological office, as well as a change in what type of scientist was valued. physicists and mathematicians were actively recruited and highly respected, whilst the status of geographers, historical climatologists, and their kin declined. on mason’s command, recruitment was steered towards the ‘hard sciences’ and, within a year of his appointment, only candidates with a first or second-class honours degree in mathematics or physics could be considered for scientific officer positions at the office.46 this was a change from the meteorological office’s educational 42 john mason, ‘the meteorological office – today and tomorrow’, contemporary physics 8 (1967), 63. emphasis added. 43 john mason, ‘the meteorological office – today and tomorrow’, contemporary physics 8 (1967), 67. the same quote appears in john mason, the new age of weather forecasting, london, 1967 (nma, met office, p134(maso), item id 794728-1001), 4. 44 here, an ‘objective’ method of forecasting can be defined as “one which depends only on the initial data and will produce the same answer whoever prepares it; the method will not call for any judgement on the part of the forecaster” (meteorological office discussion: objective methods of local forecasting, 16 march 1959, the meteorological magazine 88: 207). note the importance of the forecaster’s judgement being removed from the forecast – this was precisely mason’s aim. 45 john mason, ‘the application of computers to weather forecasting’, physics in technology 4 (1973), 63. 46 john mason, meteorological committee: recruitment into the meteorological office, december 1971 (document mc/p88, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, kew), p. 1. for post-wwii uk civil service rankings, including for scientists, see e.n. gladden, civil services of the united kingdom (london: frank cass, 1967). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 211 standards and recruitment strategies of the previous decades, which had recruited from a wider variety of educational backgrounds. part of mason’s focus on ‘hard science’ was a deliberate effort to raise the perceived scientific status, or prestige, of meteorology – and thereby to attract strong young scientists to the meteorological office. “high-quality graduates in mathematics and physics tended to be more attracted to subjects considered ‘modern’, such as nuclear physics and radio astronomy, than to meteorology, which was popularly thought to be a branch of geography with a veneer of classical physics”, writes historian malcolm walker, and mason took it upon himself to change this perception and build meteorology into a subject which could viably compete for the attention of young scientists.47 by lecturing at universities across the uk, engaging with the press, writing editorials for academic journals and popular magazines, and hosting high-level visits to the meteorological office (including by the duke of edinburgh and british prime minister edward heath), mason aimed to portray and publicize meteorology as a discipline with interesting questions and a bright future. mason used similar arguments to try to counteract the post-war brain drain and entice british scientists back home from the united states – a campaign that saw, among others, physicist keith browning come back from the us national center for atmospheric research to lead the meteorological office’s radar research unit in 1966 and physicist raymond hide return from his position as a full professor at mit to head the office’s geophysical fluid dynamics section in 1967. by 1971, mason felt that his recruitment policies were paying off. “the calibre of the scientific officer entry has improved steadily over the past five years and strength is up to complement”, he reported with satisfaction to the meteorological committee in that year.48 now, he continued, we are “able to pick and choose some of the very brightest young mathematicians and physicists in the country”.49 indeed, within a half-decade of mason’s appointment, the office had built “a reputation of drawing in the best scientists”, in the words of a young recruit of the era, julia walker — a situation which also met with strong disapproval from other quarters, where geographically-, culturallyand historically-based approaches to weather and climate were held in high esteem.50 47 malcolm walker, history of the meteorological office (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2011), 384. 48 john mason, meteorological committee: recruitment into the meteorological office, december 1971 (document mc/p88, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, kew), p. 8. 49 john mason, interview conducted by r.j. ogden, 4 june 1985 (rms dva), part 2, 11:18. 50 julia slingo, oral history conducted by paul merchant, 11 february 2011 (british library, national life stories: an oral history of british science, shelf mark c1379/61), p. 42-47. for a discussion of dissenting views, see janet martin-nielsen, a new climate: hubert h. lamb and boundary work at the uk meteorological office, in matthias heymann, gabriele gramelsberger and martin mahony, eds., cultures of prediction in atmospheric science and climate science: epistemic and cultural shifts in computer-based modelling and simulation (routledge: london & new york, 2017), 85-99. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 212 service first any significant increase in expenditure on meteorology, however well merited, is unlikely to be regarded sympathetically in the context of a shrinking defence budget: meteorology is bound to suffer.51 meteorological office memorandum, april 1967 to mason, the meteorological office was first and foremost a service organization. its mandate was to provide meteorological services to the public, the military, and paying customers in a high-quality and cost-effective manner: “to improve the observation, understanding and prediction of the behaviour of the atmosphere, to disseminate this knowledge quickly and widely, and to guide the community in its use so that the great number of weather-sensitive decisions arising daily in all walks of life can be made in the best interests of the economic and social welfare of the country”, as he said in the summer of 1966.52 this is not to say that mason was uncommitted to research, but rather that the meteorological office’s service agenda, and all it implied in terms of budgets, planning, and revenue maximization, dominated his vision for the organization – and that, under his directorship, the office’s research agenda was driven by and towards service needs.53 gaining customers, increasing revenue, and expanding the meteorological office’s service repertoire to meet national needs were all integral to mason’s vision. this service focus provides another lens for understanding the culture mason instilled at the meteorological office. the dual tasks of service and research had long been important to the meteorological office’s identity. when it was first established under the board of trade in 1854 to provide weather information and gale warnings to mariners, the office was entirely a service organization. following world war i, the office was incorporated into the air ministry and the focus of its observation stations shifted to royal air force airfields and the provision of weather data for military and civilian aviation, as well as for the other branches of the uk military. the meteorological office maintained this service agenda in the interwar years, conducting no formal organized research. under george simpson, director of the meteorological office from 1920 to 1938, the policy on research was, simply, that “research was not the met office’s business” – a view underscored by his belief that research was “a matter for the universities and not a matter for a public service; the rate-payer, the tax-payer oughtn’t to be paying for people to 51 memorandum: meteorology and the defence budget, dg met o, 4 april 1967 (document sec met o/62/ii, file air19/1088, meteorological office: department responsibility and costs, 1962-1971, kew). 52 john mason, ‘the role of meteorology in the national economy (based on a lecture given at the summer meeting of the royal meteorological society in brighton, 26 july 1966)’, weather 21 (1966), 382. 53 for further discussions, see alexander hall, 'from the airfield to the high street: the met office’s role in the emergence of commercial weather services’, weather, climate and society 7 (2015), 211-223. hall makes the point that the meteorological office’s development of applied weather services in the postwar period was part of a broader ‘agentification’ of the uk’s scientific civil service. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 213 do research”.54 after world war ii, however, this began to change.55 the new director, nelson k. johnson, made implementing a research culture a condition of accepting his appointment in the autumn of 1938, and, after the interruption of the war, “meteorological research was at last to be a recognized function of the office, no longer left to the insufficient efforts of enthusiastic members of its staff at their postprandial dining tables”.56 the first formal research division, the forecasting research division, was established in 1948 in a new building near the meteorological office’s central forecasting office in dunstable. upon taking over the directorship in 1954, sutton aimed to continue on the course pioneered by johnson; that is, to break free from the meteorological office’s traditional service mentality and to develop stronger research traditions. sutton re-organized the office to give service and research equal status and equal scientific resources. soon, the office had active research programs in areas ranging from artificial satellites to atmospheric electricity to aircraft turbulence. as part of his vision, sutton also insisted on a new centralized building for the meteorological office’s greater london facilities, which were at the time scattered across five locations.57 “for a research-based scientific institution”, sutton insisted in the late 1950s, “physical segregation was intolerably damaging”.58 in 1961, sutton’s new headquarters were opened at bracknell in berkshire, 48 kilometres west of central london. the bracknell headquarters boasted specially designed research facilities including laboratories, cold chambers, and wind tunnels, as well as a 30-acre outdoor experimental site, providing the meteorological office with a comprehensive set of scientific facilities and installations “fitted with all modern conveniences” for the first time.59 the following spring, queen elizabeth ii and the duke of edinburgh visited bracknell, giving the new facility a royal flavour. for mason, who took over the directorship in 1965, sutton had shifted the meteorological office’s service-research balance too far in favour of research. upon mason’s appointment, the editor of weather – the royal meteorological society’s monthly magazine – asked mason to give his thoughts. “i am very conscious that the first duty of the meteorological 54 first quote: reginald c. sutcliffe, interview conducted by hessam taba, 25 february 1981 (wmo bulletin interviews, vol. 30, issue 3). second quote: reginald c. sutcliffe, interview conducted by j.m.c. burton, 19811983 (rms dva), 47:19. on the lack of research at the met office in these years, and indeed simpson’s opposition to formal organized research, also see j.s. sawyer, interview conducted by phil drazin, 12 august 1985 (rms dva), 12: 25. 55 see, for example, the meteorological office’s annual report for year ending march 31, 1949. also, for two overviews of research at the met office in this era, see a.h.r. goldie, ‘organization of research in the meteorological office’, meteorological magazine 78 (1949), 93-98 and reginald c. sutcliffe, ‘the meteorological office faces the future: scientific research and development’, meteorological magazine 84 (1955), 183-187. see also hall, risk, blame and expertise. 56 p.a. sheppard, ‘notes by the chairman of the meteorological research committee’, meteorological magazine 91 (1962), 335-337. 57 these locations were victory house, harrow, dunstable, stanmore, and the london airport forecasting office. staff from the first four locations were united at the new meteorological office headquarters, and the meteor computer was also moved from dunstable to bracknell. 58 f. pasquill, p.a. sheppard and r.c. sutcliffe, ‘oliver graham sutton, 4 february 1903 – 26 may 1977’, biographical memoirs of fellows of the royal society 24 (1978), 539. 59 reginald c. sutcliffe, ‘research organization and facilities’, meteorological magazine 91 (1962), 317. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 214 office is to provide a first-class public service”, mason emphasized in his commentary: “its value to the community and its proper financial support will be judged largely by the quality and range of its services”.60 improving the office’s economic and social authority, as well as building its prestige as a provider of weather services, was integral to mason’s directorship. “every day, millions of decisions are based upon, or influenced by, the weather forecast”, he wrote: “they range in importance from whether to hang out the washing, to the cancellation or diversion of the flight of an airliner, to the imposition of a major power cut. the meteorological office tries to cater for them all”.61 and mason’s masters constantly reminded him of the importance of the meteorological office’s service mandate: “the acid test for a meteorological organization costing some £4m or £5m a year must clearly be the measure of success achieved in improving the technique of forecasting and applying the data obtained for the benefit of the various users”, emphasized the brabazon committee, a powerful government review board, during its 1956 evaluation of the office.62 whilst the meteorological office was required to provide free access to weather information for the public, mason saw potential in offering customized, paid services to industrial and commercial clients — and thereby extending the office’s epistemic and social authority into new realms of british life. as part of his ‘service first’ approach, mason continually evaluated the markets for meteorological and climatological information and honed the office to best serve them, aiming to expand the office’s customer base and bring in new revenue. in this sense, he took a business-oriented, and even aggressively commercial, approach to running the meteorological office. in 1966, for example, mason called for market research to establish a baseline understanding of the office’s markets in connection to computer resources.63 he then commissioned a market survey and hired a management consultancy firm, messrs. peter ward associates, to “examine the prospects of increasing revenue from the meteorological office public services”.64 mason also promoted the office’s services personally, writing articles for the trade press, giving talks to industrial and professional bodies, engaging with the media, and instructing his public services branch to produce brochures to advertise the meteorological office’s service offerings.65 front and centre in mason’s sights was the provision of customized weather information for new clients. speaking in 1966 about the role of meteorology in the national economy, mason enthusiastically described his efforts to “convince individual industries 60 john mason, ‘some thoughts on the future’, weather 20 (1965), 274. 61 john mason, ‘the meteorological office – today and tomorrow’, contemporary physics 8 (1967), 73. 62 for the brabazon committee, see file air20/9417, brabazon committee on meteorological office, kew. the committee’s influential report is brabazon (1956), ‘report of a committee to review the organization of the meteorological office, august, 1956’ (air 2/1239, kew). 63 john mason, ‘the role of meteorology in the national economy (based on a lecture given at the summer meeting of the royal meteorological society in brighton, 26 july 1966)’, weather 21 (1966), 382. 64 meteorological committee: meteorological office services to the public – report by management consultants messrs peter ward associates (document mc/p89, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, kew), p. 1. for the survey, see survey of market for meteorological services (file bj5/302, kew). 65 the expansion of revenue-producing services in the meteorological office and the growth of income (document mc/p 106 annex, file air2/18819, meteorological committee: papers, kew), p. 2. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 215 and firms that they may profit from [the meteorological office’s information]” by approaching large industries at the board-room level “and offer[ing] to discuss how we might help”.66 critical to these goals was the oil and gas industry, which began drilling in the north sea in the mid-1960s. soon, the meteorological office was offering meteorological information relevant to the towing and operation of rigs and supply vessels.67 a decade later, by the mid1970s, the office’s offshore industry services – including twice-daily forecasts for individual oil rigs, platforms and pipe-laying barges; additional targeted services for critical operations such as jacking up, diving and towing; a 24-hour on-call telephone and telex advice line; and even a new office in sumburgh to provide tailored forecasts for helicopter flights serving oil rigs – represented a critical revenue source.68 ship routing services, introduced by mason in 1967 for atlantic crossings and extended in 1972 to the pacific, designed to inform mariners about safe crossing routes, also quickly gained a large customer base and saw steadily rising profits.69 due in large part to mason’s efforts at seeking out new avenues for service, enquiries rose steadily during his tenure: non-aviation enquiries nearly doubled from 1.16 million in 1965-1966 to 1.97 million in 1977-1978, and climatological enquiries tripled in the same period, from 10,000 in 1965-1966 to nearly 30,000 in 1977-1978. and the rise in revenue was even more dramatic: whilst the office pulled in £1.7 million in service revenue in 1965-1966, a decade later its services brought in £8.7 million.70 for mason, increasing the meteorological office’s revenue through service provision took on new importance as the office faced budgetary cutbacks in the late 1960s. the meteorological office fell under the ministry of defence, and mason himself was responsible to the secretary of state for defence through the royal air force’s parliamentary undersecretary of state for defence.71 in the late 1960s, the uk struggled with low growth, falling trade, a sickly economy, strict monetary exchange controls, and, in 1967, under prime minister harold wilson, a de-valuation of the pound – all of which meant declining budgets for government departments, including the ministry of defence. for mason, the reductions in the defence budget represented a threat to his realm. with tight finances, wrote the ministry of defence’s l.h. curzon early in 1968, there was “a real problem of priorities which in all circumstances is almost bound to be settled in favour of defence requirements” – a thinly veiled notice to mason that the 66 john mason, ‘the role of meteorology in the national economy (based on a lecture given at the summer meeting of the royal meteorological society in brighton, 26 july 1966)’, weather 21 (1966), 384. 67 r.j. ogden, ‘forecasting for north sea oil and gas rigs’, weather 27 (1972). 68 for services for the offshore industry, see meteorological committee: meteorology and natural resources (document mc/p97, file air2/18819, meteorological committee: papers, kew), p. 4. 69 the expansion of revenue-producing services in the meteorological office and the growth of income (document mc/p 106 annex, file air2/18819, meteorological committee: papers, kew), p. 2. 70 john mason, ‘the future development of the meteorological office’, the meteorological magazine 107 (1978), 129-130. both figures are in 1966 pounds. 71 only property and stationary did not come from the ministry of defence (the meteorological office: overview, 1 september 1977 (file cab 164/1379, meteorological office and climatology, 1974-1978, kew), p. 1). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 216 meteorological office faced a combative atmosphere in the ministry’s internal fight for funds.72 curzon’s words were echoed bluntly by ranking officials in the royal air force: faced with “the distressing nature of the sort of measures we are having to contemplate to reduce the total defence budget”, the armed forces were preparing “to launch an attack on the cost of meteorological services on the grounds that […] it means the sacrifice of a battalion”, wrote the deputy undersecretary and permanent undersecretary for the royal air force in 1967.73 acutely aware that, in the wake of the grim budgetary situation, “the armed forces genuinely felt that many defence projects were of greater value than improved meteorology”, mason was forced to pursue a policy of revenue maximization – a policy which also aimed to boost the office’s importance and authority in many aspects of british life.74 political imperatives from across the ocean keeping up with the usa, or at least not being left far behind the dominant country in meteorology, was another constant, overriding pressure affecting how mason made decisions, distributed resources, and assigned value throughout his tenure as director of the meteorological office. closely related was mason’s desire to remain at the forefront of european weather forecasting and research, as well as his desire for the uk’s national weather service to be seen as superior to its soviet counterpart. for mason, these pressures pushed him to move forwards, and quickly, with numerical modelling – an area in which the us was strong, and an area which mason saw as critical to the future of meteorology. the pressure to keep up with the usa did not originate in mason’s term of office; rather, it stemmed from the end of world war ii.75 building on computer advances from wartime codebreaking work, mathematician john von neumann and meteorologist jule charney produced the world’s first numerical weather forecast on the eniac computer in maryland’s aberdeen proving grounds in 1950. five years later, the us began operational numerical weather prediction as a joint project between the us weather bureau, air force and navy.76 and the next year, at princeton, norman phillips developed the first true general circulation 72 l.h. curzon, ministry of defence, to m.g.f. hall, treasure chambers, 25 january 1968: civil meteorology and the defence budget (document aus(f)(air)/3727, pus no. q521, file air19/1088, meteorological office: department responsibility and costs, 1962-1971, kew). 73 a.d. peck, dus(p&b) to pus(air), 15 march 1967: civil meteorology and the defence budget (document adp.182/67, file air19/1088, meteorological office: department responsibility and costs, 1962-1971, kew); pus(raf) to us of s(raf), 16 march 1967 (document pus no. p1692, file air19/1088, meteorological office: department responsibility and costs, 1962-1971, kew). 74 aus(f)(air), 14 march 1967: civil meteorology and the defence budget (document aus(f)(air)/1530, file air19/1088, meteorological office: department responsibility and costs, 1962-1971, kew). 75 prior to world war ii, uk meteorology had been largely internally focused, with not much attention paid to other countries, especially not the usa. this changed with the war. for discussion see j.s. sawyer, interview conducted by phil drazin, 12 august 1985 (rms dva), 26:20. 76 see kristine c. harper, weather by the numbers: the genesis of modern meteorology (cambridge ma: mit press, 2012). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 217 model, sparking publicity, winning government funding, and inspiring a concerted us effort in the field. there was no question in the mind of the meteorological office’s leaders that the us was far ahead of the uk in weather matters, and this translated into a constant source of pressure on and within the office. in 1967, mason reported to the meteorological committee about the meteorological office’s relative position: “the united states [is] rather ahead” in terms of numerical weather prediction, he said, noting also that the soviets were well advanced, but reassured his masters that the uk remained ahead of their main european counterparts, sweden and the federal republic of germany.77 to not fall further behind “our rivals” (as he referred to the us weather bureau), he continued in his 1967 annual report, there is an “urgent need” to expand the meteorological office’s computing resources and facilities.78 mason’s words met their mark, and in the same year (1967) the meteorological committee explicitly described the replacement of the present kdf9 computer, acquired in 1965, as a pressing need essential “to enable the office to maintain its position as the leading centre of meteorological practice and research outside the united states”.79 “we see this powerful new computer as the keystone of a modernized, efficient national weather service able to take full advantage of the recent remarkable advances in research and technology”, the committee continued. the new computer, they concluded, “will enhance our undisputed leadership in meteorology in europe and make bracknell the only centre in the world to compare with washington for many years to come”. this machine, an ibm 360/195, was installed at bracknell in 1971-1972 at a cost of over half a million pounds, and soon the entire meteorological office was “extensively modernized and re-organized around the very powerful [new] computer”.80 the ibm was more than simply a computing machine; it was a concrete symbol of the uk’s determination to keep up with the usa in meteorological matters: a symbol of national status and a method of enhancing political authority just as much as scientific capacity. indeed, if the meteorological office had a raison d’être apart from its explicit mandate in the post-war period, it was a political one. driven by this mandate, mason’s large investments in computing hardware, techniques and personnel spoke simultaneously to matters of science, vision, politics and prestige. this reminds us that the changes driven by mason at the meteorological office were the result of ambitions shaped by the times; namely, the rise of computers, a growing desire for ‘hard scientific’ approaches in the uk government, and the meteorological office’s situation vis-a-vis the united states. 77 meteorological committee: director-general’s annual report, 31 january 1967 (document mc/p72, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, kew), p. 5. 78 our rivals: john mason, interview conducted by r.j. ogden, 4 june 1985 (rms dva), part 2, 9:15. urgent need: meteorological committee: director-general’s annual report, 31 january 1967 (document mc/p72, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, kew), p. 3. 79 meteorological committee: a new computer for the meteorological office, september 1967 (document mc/p75, file bj5/302, meteorological office: administrative records, kew), p. 1. 80 john mason, ‘the future development of the meteorological office’, the meteorological magazine 107 (1978), 129. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 218 complaints and challenges as a senior civil servant, mason was often grilled by politicians, the public and the media about the accuracy of the meteorological office’s forecasts. soon after assuming the directorship of the office, mason was met with strong – and embarrassing – complaints about the office’s abilities. he reacted to this criticism by intensifying his push towards ‘objective’ methods (namely, numerical modelling), convinced that the objectivity he saw as inherent in computer models of weather would both improve the meteorological office’s forecasting accuracy and boost its social authority. in 1966, only months after mason’s arrival at the meteorological office, a commotion erupted in the house of lords over weather forecasting when lord erroll of hale, president of the london chamber of commerce and former minister of power in sir alec douglas-home’s conservative government, interrogated lord shackleton, minster of defence for the royal air force with responsibility for the meteorological office: “what steps [are] the government […] going to take to correct the deterioration in the standard of forecasts issued by the meteorological office?”, asked lord erroll in a biting tone.81 the office, he continued, ought to “make an apology when they were wrong, and to issue no forecast when conditions were very variable, instead of allowing the public to be hoodwinked by dogmatic forecasts”. the times picked up on the exchange and, on august 2, 1966, ran an article critical of the meteorological office, including comments from captain c.c. jackson, secretary-general of the international federation of airline pilots associations, who suggested that the office was providing poor service to pilots: “the forecasting service has not improved since the war”, jackson complained.82 and the reliability of the office’s forecasts was again called into question two years later, in september 1968, when heavy rain caused severe flooding in southeast england, washing away bridges, inundating low-lying areas, and flash flooding rivers, eventually requiring the army to provide emergency help to thousands. in the house of commons, members of parliament john ellis (bristol north-west) and roger gresham cooke (twickenham) demanded to know why the meteorological office had provided no advance warning of the catastrophic rains. two days after the storm, ellis appeared in person at mason’s bracknell office to discuss the office’s failure: how, he demanded of mason, was the meteorological office unable to make critical forecasts, even with a new computer which had cost the government nearly half a million pounds?83 81 ‘sunnier outlook for weather forecasts’, the times (london), 2 august 1966, p. 10. 82 ‘sunnier outlook for weather forecasts’, the times (london), 2 august 1966, p. 10. 83 the times (london), 17 september 1968. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 219 fig. 1. the met office computer, console operator's desk. kdf-9 tape unit behind, met office headquarters, bracknell. scanned from the original 35 mm slide, image no. 2306, item id 962305-1001. ©crown copyright. forced to defend himself and his organization, mason pointed to the meteorological office’s growing use of computers for numerical modelling, highlighting the future dividends to be reaped from the objective nature of this technique. this argument had three parts: first, mason argued that models were imbued with epistemic authority due to their objective (that is, numerical, or mathematical) interpretation of physical theories. he then used this epistemic authority to build social authority in models – to make them be seen as trustworthy testifiers and adjudicators – and, finally, to build social authority in the meteorological office itself. in publicity reminiscent of his first push for social authority in weather models – the 1965 press conference at which meteorological office’s inaugural operational numerical weather forecast was printed live in front of a crowd of journalists – mason demonstrated the success of the meteorological office’s models to politicians, students, and the press at the office’s bracknell headquarters and at venues across the uk.84 the authority and objectivity of the meteorological office’s models was represented in a much-circulated photo (figure 1) of the office’s kdf9 computer, showing a large room filled with elegantly designed blue-and-silver computer cabinets, tape units and line printers, personified by men in sharp suits and horn-rimmed glasses sitting attentively at the consoles, light pouring in through large windows.85 as has been 84 it is beyond the scope of this paper to discuss the public reception of computerized forecasting, the advent of television forecasts, and the changing public status of meteorology in the uk. the reader is referred to section 5.4 of alexander hall, risk, blame and expertise. 85 this image, and others like it, are now kept in the meteorological office’s archives. see, for example, image no. 2306, met office computers: console operator’s desk, kdf-9 tape unit behind, met office headquarters, bracknell (nma, shelf mark computers no. 017, item id 962305-1001). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 220 extensively discussed in the history of science community, the production and projection of objectivity and authority through models, data and technology are particularly important during the emergence of new scientific practices.86 they are as affected by scientific argumentation as they are by social processes, cultural traditions and political contexts. as we have seen in this paper, they are often construed differently in the scientific and non-scientific communities, whether it be by different validation standards or by the desire for practical applications.87 the standards by which objectivity and authority are measured are furthermore, as mike hulme argues, socially constructed: the epistemic power of computer models in 1960s britain is rooted in broader social and cultural changes.88 in the kdf9 photo, for example, the computers themselves are front and centre, clean and gleaming in the light, whilst the scientists are there to ensure the proper functioning of the machines but not to do the forecast calculations themselves. whilst earlier meteorological office publicity photos show forecasters in the foreground, leaning over detailed maps, the sole interpreters of weather data, this photograph underlines the new status of machines in the forecasting equation. indeed, with the numerical production of weather knowledge, human forecasters found themselves in both partnership and competition with the computers. the modernity of the computer, went the message, was a reason to trust in the information it produced. and that output itself – in the form of weather charts, complete with thick black isobars and international weather symbols overlaid on an outline map of the british isles – inhabited a public venue on bbc television, where the charts appeared daily before millions of viewers.89 as these charts entered british homes as ‘serious scientific’ representations of the weather, the meteorological office scientists who, crucially, doubled as bbc weather presenters quickly became household names and even celebrities. and as the models performed in the public arena, mason hoped they would build credibility in the meteorological office itself. mason’s push to build social authority in models was ultimately largely successful — part of a broader cultural shift in which computers and computer modelling became hegemonic in certain fields. the ministry of defence, for example, asserted in 1968 that weather data “produced by numerical means were consistently more reliable than those produced by traditional subjective methods” – precisely the attitude mason wanted to instil in his masters and in government and the public more broadly.90 mason, it can be argued, succeeded in ‘relocating’ the perception of meteorology from a subjective discipline to an objective, scientific discipline 86 see for example steven shapin, a social history of truth: civility and science in seventeenth-century england (university of chicago press, 1994); ted porter, trust in numbers: the pursuit of objectivity i science and public life (princeton, nj: princeton university press, 1995); daston, and galison, objectivity. 87 see also matthias heymann,, ‘constructing evidence and trust: how did climate scientists’ trust in their models and simulations emerge?’, in the social life of climate change models: anticipating nature, ed. by kirsten hastrup and martin skrydstrup (abingdon: routledge, 2013), 203–24 88 mike hulme, ‘how climate models gain and exercise authority’, p.41. 89 in 1967, the daily viewership for the bbc’s televised weather forecast was five million viewers. john mason, ‘the meteorological office – today and tomorrow’, contemporary physics 8 (1967), 75. on the public consumption of television weather forecasts more generally, see mark monmonier, air apparent. 90 malcolm walker, history of the meteorological office (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2011), 364. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 221 with epistemic authority. and this was achieved by carefully and deliberately relocating meteorology into british homes, businesses and government circles, through orchestrated performances of the new power of numerical weather prediction. his early tenure at the meteorological office saw the development of new audiences, new clients and new markets as the office commercialized its offerings. but mason’s third aim – to build social authority in the meteorological office itself, to improve the organization’s reputation and status – was a harder battle, set back by every major failed forecast, which in a country enamoured with the weather invariably made the front pages of the newspapers. even as the office’s forecasting models improved and weather forecasts became more accurate and reliable, still weather prediction was inherently difficult. it was a battle that mason fought throughout his nearly two-decade tenure at the meteorological office. acknowledgements with thanks to matthias heymann, andrew watt, martin mahony, and cultures of prediction colleagues. corresponding author(s) erchen bo, peking university, boerchen2015@pku.edu.cn constructing a red meteorological network: the production and utilization of meteorological knowledge in yan'an during wwii erchen bo introduction on december 21, 1950, the xinhua news agency of the communist party of china (cpc),1 published an editorial titled “the situation of u.s. imperialists plundering china’s meteorological data.” the opening sentence stated, “during the war of resistance against japan, u.s. imperialists established the fourteenth air force and simultaneously set up meteorological stations in china. this marked the beginning of u.s. imperialist aggression against china’s meteorology.”2 this statement, issued after the “iron curtain” of the cold war had descended and chinese troops were actively engaged against u.s. forces on the korean peninsula, reflects the prevailing narrative of intense sino-american confrontation that defined the early cold war era. however, a closer examination of the history of meteorology under the cpc reveals a far more nuanced and complex trajectory than the simplified antagonistic framing presented in the editorial. in fact, in 1944, a u.s. military observation group known as the “dixie mission” was stationed in yan’an. while this mission carried out its activities amidst complex political objectives, the cpc permitted u.s. military forces to establish meteorological stations in yan’an. these stations transmitted weather data from northern china to the meteorological center in chongqing, contributing to anti-japanese military operations. notably, the cpc’s military forces received meteorological training from u.s. personnel during this collaboration, 1 another commonly used term for the party in english-language literature is the chinese communist party (ccp). however, this paper adopts the party’s official name, the communist party of china (cpc), to align with the terminology used in its official documents and historical narratives. 2 xinhua news agency, “the u.s. empire's seizure of our meteorological data (美帝攫夺我国气象资料情形)”. science bulletin (科学通报), no. 2 (1951): 157. mailto:boerchen2015@pku.edu.cn history of meteorology 12 (2025) 2 providing the foundation for the development of the cpc’s earliest meteorological stations. 3 this cooperation highlights the dynamics of the relationship between the cpc and the united states on the eve of the cold war, despite their ideological differences. it also uncovers an important yet often overlooked episode and a significant early foundation in the history of meteorology during the people’s republic of china era. this paper focuses on the construction of what u.s. meteorologists referred to as the “red network” and examines the processes of knowledge transfer and application of u.s. military meteorological expertise within yan’an. it argues that the interactions between the communist party of china and the united states in the 1940s present a narrative distinct from the later cold war confrontations dominated by ideological divisions. focusing on meteorological science as a case study, it illustrates how these exchanges, though driven by specific military and diplomatic imperatives, broaden our understanding of the transnational circulation of knowledge and its localization within specific contexts. in chinese scholarship, the interactions between the cpc and american delegations are often regarded as a significant diplomatic achievement, drawing considerable attention from scholars in mainland china.4 in the english-language literature, carolle j. carter’s mission to yenan: american liaison with the chinese communists 1944–1947 stands as a seminal work on this historical period5. additionally, firsthand accounts by members of the dixie mission, such as former mission leader david d. barret, and his successor wilbur j. peterkin, and diplomatic attaché john p. davies offer valuable memoirs. however, these works predominantly focus on the political and military interactions among the three key players— the cpc, the nationalist government, and the u.s. government—highlighting episodes of both cooperation and conflict. while meteorological collaboration is occasionally mentioned, it often becomes overshadowed by the grand narratives centered on prominent figures and highlevel diplomacy. this paper adopts a meteorological perspective, illustrating how a series of diplomatic activities facilitated the application of american meteorological knowledge in territories under cpc’s control. indeed, without diplomatic consensus, establishing meteorological stations in communist-held areas would likely have been unfeasible.6 by focusing on this case, the study contributes to the burgeoning field of science diplomacy history.7 although it aligns with some classical frameworks in this field, the specificity of the communist-controlled areas challenges 3 john f. fuller, thor’s legions: weather support to the u. s. air force and army, 1937-1987 (american meteorological society, 1990), 118. 4 jun niu, from yan’an to the world: the origins of the cpc’s foreign relations (从延安走向世界: 中国共产党对外 关系的起源) (beijing: cpc party history press, 2008). 5 carolle j. carter, mission to yenan: american liaison with the chinese communists 1944-1947, illustrated edition (lexington, ky: university press of kentucky, 1997). 6 although traditional diplomatic cases define diplomacy as activities between sovereign states, during the second world war, china was in a situation where two different regimes coexisted. considering that the people's republic of china eventually replaced the republic of china, this paper will regard the activities of cpc in yan’an as a form of diplomatic activity. 7 in 2010, the royal society of the united kingdom and the american association for the advancement of science (aaas) jointly published "new frontiers in science diplomacy," which is considered a milestone event in the study of science diplomacy. in this report, the concept's scope was formally defined through descriptions of three relationships between diplomacy and science: (1). science in diplomacy emphasizes enhancing the effectiveness of diplomatic activities through specialized scientific knowledge. (2). science for diplomacy highlights the use of scientific cooperation in international relations to improve or strengthen relations between countries. (3). diplomacy for science refers to using diplomatic means to promote scientific cooperation between nations. for more details, please refer to: the royal society and american association for the advancement of science, new frontiers in science diplomacy: navigating the changing balance of power (london: the royal society, 2010). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 3 the enduring positivist imagination of science as inherently objective, neutral, and benevolent.8 as this study will show, the diverse interests of the various actors involved gave rise to a data network shaped by unequal power dynamics. moreover, existing research on the history of meteorology in the republic of china (roc) has yielded a substantial body of work in both chinese and english. these studies often focus on the meteorological institutions within the nationalist government’s administrative framework and their collaboration with the u.s. government. for instance, fangyu liu has highlighted the critical applications of meteorology during world war ii, emphasizing the value of meteorological intelligence networks in the sino-japanese war and the history of the sino-american special technical cooperation office.9 similarly, xiao liu has explored how the nationalist weather network served as a tool for constructing national sovereignty.10 however, little attention has been paid in the english-language literature to the unique role of the meteorological intelligence network in yan’an. existing narratives often emphasize the contributions of highly educated meteorologists and engineers, who constructed meteorological systems that served the nationalist government. in contrast, the cpc-controlled areas operated under much harsher conditions, with limited equipment and personnel who lacked formal training. this paper argues that the details of meteorological cooperation between u.s. forces and cpc soldiers reveal that the generation, dissemination, and application of meteorological knowledge were not solely the domain of elite, formally trained scientists or engineers. the yan’an case offers insights into the localization of meteorological knowledge through grassroots practices. furthermore, the long-term impact of this collaboration can be traced to the meteorological system of the people’s republic of china, as many meteorologists trained during this period became core technical bureaucrats in the country’s future meteorological infrastructure. with the recent publication of chinese archives in the past few years, this paper has access to a wealth of primary sources. 11 additionally, i will utilize memoirs and reminiscences published by chinese individuals, 12 as well as members of the “dixie mission” such as david 8 matthew adamson and roberto lalli, “global perspectives on science diplomacy: exploring the diplomacy-knowledge nexus in contemporary histories of science”, centaurus 63, no. 1 (2021): 1–16. and, j lif lund jacobsen and doubravka olšáková, “diplomats in science diplomacy: promoting scientific and technological collaboration in international relations”, berichte zur wissenschaftsgeschichte 43, no. 4 (2020): 465–72. 9 see: fangyu liu. weather and warfare: chinese meteorology during the second sino-japanese war (风云起: 抗战时期 中国的气象事业) (taipei: republic of china history and culture society limited, 2022). and fangyu liu, “wartime sinous military-technical co-operation: the case of the min-zhe-wan meteorological network (战时中美军事技术合作：以闽 浙皖气象网设置为例 ),” archives biannual (档案半年刊 ) 20, no. 1 (1 june 2021): 38-51. and fangyu liu, “the establishment and effectiveness of the china-u.s. special technical co-operation in china's meteorological intelligence network (1942-1947) (中美特种技术合作所在华气象情报网的建置与成效),” institute of modern history (近代史研究所 集刊), no. 114 (1 december 2021): 83-129. 10 xiao liu, “meteorology and politics in republican china, 1912-1949” (phd dissertation, the university of bristol, 2021). 11 china central archives, compilation of u.s. army observer group files in the central archives (中央档案馆藏美军观察 组档案汇编), (shanghai: shanghai far east publishing house, 2018). 12 heng wu ed., historical materials on the development of science and technology in the liberated areas during the war of resistance against japanese aggression: 4th series (抗日战争时期解放区科学技术发展史资料: 第 4辑) (beijing: china academic press, 1985). and meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era(延安时 代的气象事业) (beijing: meteorological publishing house, 1995). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 4 d. barret, 13 his successor wilbur j. peterkin, 14 and diplomatic attaché john p. davies, 15 who facilitated this process. these accounts will be cross-verified with official publications such as air force chronicles from both sides, forming the basis of reference for this paper.16 considering the points outlined above, this paper will be structured into three specific parts. the first part will focus on the process of the united states' decision to send a delegation to yan'an, the capital of the communist-led red regime, amid various political considerations. this part will delve into the establishment of meteorological observations and the formation of a meteorological data network. the second part will highlight the demands of the communist party of china and the process of training communist cadres by the united states, aiming to demonstrate the integration of meteorological knowledge with local experiences. the third part will discuss the intensified contradictions between the two regimes following japan's surrender, examining the contemporary significance and subsequent impacts of meteorological cooperation in the context of the flow of meteorological knowledge. entering yan'an: a missing piece of the pacific theater meteorological data network before the outbreak of world war ii, a group of meteorologists serving the nationalist government had already proposed the establishment of a nationwide network of meteorological stations for weather observation. for instance, meteorologist zhu kezhen (竺 可桢 ) spearheaded efforts in 1928 by drafting the “national plan for establishing meteorological observatories” (《全国设立气象测候所计划书》), which outlined a vision for a meteorological observation network. over the following decade, zhu played a pivotal role in realizing this vision, leading the meteorological institute of the academia sinica in its implementation.17 with the outbreak of the second sino-japanese war, the nationalist government increasingly emphasized the military applications of meteorological observation. in 1941, it established the central meteorological bureau. however, the organizational structure of china’s meteorological institutions at the time was fragmented. key entities, such as the aeronautical committee and the central meteorological bureau, operated independently of each other, each establishing their own observation networks without centralized coordination. 18 furthermore, the meteorological institute of the academia sinica faced significant resource constraints, including a shortage of trained personnel, fully equipped base stations, and adequate instruments for meteorological observation. before the nationalist government entered into an alliance with the united states, official statistics indicated that the aeronautical committee operated approximately 30 meteorological stations, while the central meteorological bureau had established 46 13 david d. barrett, dixie mission: the united states army observer group in yenan, 1944, first edition (berkeley: center for chinese studies, university of california, 1970). 14 col w. j. peterkin and wilbur j. peterkin, inside china 1943-1945: an eyewitness account of america’s mission to yenan (lexington, ky: dixie mission books, 1992). 15 john paton davies jr, dragon by the tail: american, british, japanese, and russian encounters with china and one another (new york: w. w. norton & company, 1972). 16 liu, weather and warfar. 17 wen kegang, ed., history of chinese meteorology (中国气象史) (beijing: meteorological press, 2004): 330–341. 18 liu, “the establishment and effectiveness of the china-u.s. special technical co-operation in china's meteorological intelligence network (1942-1947)”, 83-129. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 5 observation posts. however, the slow transmission of meteorological data via wired telegraph systems severely limited its usefulness for military operations.19 in december 1941, following the attack on pearl harbor, the united states declared war on japan, opening the pacific theater of world war ii. weather information became critical for military operations against japan, as adverse weather could result in substantial combat losses and affect the success of missions. at that time, the us military had only two radio stations in the far east—one in darwin, australia, and the other in batavia (modern-day jakarta), indonesia—providing limited meteorological data. 20 to support its operations in the pacific, the us military urgently needed to establish communication stations across china to gather intelligence, particularly meteorological data, for its campaigns against japan. in april 1942, lieutenant colonel milton e. miles of the u.s. navy visited chongqing, seeking to collaborate with the nationalist government of china to establish an intelligence network that included meteorological intelligence. in april 1943, the two countries signed the “sino-american special technical cooperation agreement” in washington, formalizing plans to establish the “sino-american technical cooperation office” (saco). meteorology was designated as one of the core technical domains, tasked with collecting meteorological intelligence, facilitating the exchange of weather data, conducting meteorological research, and training personnel in this field. following the establishment of this sino-american cooperation, miles reached an agreement with dai li (戴笠), the head of the nationalist government’s intelligence agency, granting saco responsibility for overseeing the collection of meteorological intelligence within china.21 between 1943 and 1944, saco set up 33 meteorological stations across the country. these included 10 tier-one stations, 6 tier-two stations, and 17 tier-three stations, with a notable concentration in the southeastern coastal regions and a smaller number in the northwest. by the end of world war ii, the network had expanded to 37 meteorological stations, though their distribution remained heavily concentrated in southern china. 22 by 1944, as the war against japan intensified, the u.s. military gained significant momentum in the pacific theater, prompting japan to withdraw forces to consolidate its occupation of manchuria and northern china. during this period, the u.s. initiated airstrikes using b-29 bombers against japanese-occupied territories and even the its mainland. in collaboration with the nationalist government, some of the bomber bases were established in chengdu and kunming, located in southwestern china. at the same time, the cpc controlled portions of northern china, with yan’an in shaanxi province serving as its central hub. these territories, referred to by the cpc as the “anti-japanese base areas” (抗日根据地), encompassed regions such as shaanxi-gansuningxia (陕甘宁) and shanxi-chahar-hebei (晋察冀). the flight paths of u.s. bombers frequently traversed these cpc-controlled areas. however, the cpc lacked the equipment and capacity to establish meteorological stations in these regions, resulting in limited access for the u.s. military to weather intelligence crucial for its operations.23 19 ibid., 91-92. 20 fangyu liu, weather and warfare, 199-200. 21 fangyu liu, “the establishment and effectiveness of the china-u.s. special technical co-operation in china's meteorological intelligence network (1942-1947),” 91-95. 22 ibid., 103. 23 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era, 21-22. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 6 moreover, during the early stages of the war, the nationalist government sought meteorological broadcasts from the soviet union’s siberian region via diplomatic channels to extrapolate weather conditions for northwestern china. however, beginning in september 1941, the soviet union, citing the classification of meteorological data as military intelligence, declined to continue sharing such information. this development coincided with the soviet union’s engagement in combat against germany on the european front, leading to the withdrawal of soviet military assistance to china.24 however, it is essential to recognize that although meteorological intelligence was critical to u.s. military operations, the u.s. decision to send an observation group to yan’an had far broader objectives. as early as 1942, following the u.s. declaration of war on japan, zhou enlai (周恩来), one of the cpc’s key leaders, met with john paton davies, a civilian official at the u.s. embassy in china. zhou proposed that the u.s. dispatch a military officer team to establish intelligence stations in shanxi and shaanxi provinces. later, zhou made a similar suggestion to john s. service, another official from the u.s. embassy, seeking american support.25 following these discussions, in january 1944, john paton davies drafted a detailed memorandum emphasizing the severe deficiency in u.s. intelligence stemming from the lack of direct contact with communist-controlled areas in northern china. he argued that establishing an observation group in yan’an would address this isolation.26 the memorandum was ultimately presented to president franklin d. roosevelt, who raised the matter with nationalist leader chiang kai-shek on three separate occasions over the following months. despite initial resistance, chiang relented in june 1944, following roosevelt’s decision to send vice president henry wallace on a diplomatic visit to china. 27 on the day the dixie mission set out for yan’an, joseph dickey, the head of military intelligence for the china-burma-india theater, handed a memorandum to the mission leader, colonel david d. barrett. this memorandum outlined tasks far beyond meteorological intelligence, emphasizing the collection of information on the communist party. key objectives included assessing the composition, deployment, and operations of communist forces, compiling a comprehensive list of communist officials, and evaluating the cpc’s potential contributions to the war effort. these instructions resembled a broad operational guideline rather than a specific military directive.28 from the cpc’s perspective, the arrival of the u.s. mission was of significant diplomatic importance. after receiving a telegram from the u.s. military, mao zedong, the cpc’s top leader, welcomed the mission in a telegram dated 28 june. 29 subsequently, on 18 august, the cpc central committee issued a directive in which mao underscored the strategic importance of this interaction, stating: “we should not regard their visit and observation as 24 liu, weather and warfare: 104-105. 25 davies jr, dragon by the tail, 316-321. 26 carter, mission to yenan, 16-18. 27 ibid., 19-24. 28 barrett, dixie mission, 26-27. 29 “mao zedong’s telegram to lin boqu and dong biwu on requesting them to welcome u.s. military personnel in yan’an (⽑泽东关于请代欢迎美军事⼈员来延给林伯渠董必武的电报)” compilation of u.s. army observer group files in the central archives, 27-39. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 7 ordinary actions but rather as the beginning of our diplomatic work in the international united front.” 30 among the members of the u.s. observation group, several technical military officers were directly involved in meteorological work. at the time, meteorological support operations were overseen by the u.s. tenth meteorological squadron, which was led by the renowned colonel richard ellsworth. the squadron was responsible for coordinating meteorological services across the china-burma-india theater. under ellsworth’s leadership, army air corps major charles r. dole was chosen to join the “dixie mission,” where he was tasked with managing meteorological affairs in yan’an.31 according to dole's recollections, upon the u.s. observation group's arrival in yan'an, they were warmly welcomed by figures such as mao zedong and lin biao (林彪), creating an extremely cordial social atmosphere, which dole believed to be highly conducive to their mission. 32 in september 1944, the u.s. observation group established a meteorological station at the foot of fenghuang mountain in yan’an. staffed by six to seven personnel, the station conducted daily ground-level weather observations. 33 by november, they had set up a radiobased wind-sounding station, also known as an upper-air station, within the yan’an meteorological station. in april 1945, lightning detection capabilities were added to the station’s operations. the station served dual purposes: providing meteorological support for aircraft flying in and out of yan’an and transmitting weather intelligence from yan’an and its surrounding areas to the command center in chongqing. 34 however, a single meteorological station in yan’an proved insufficient to meet the u.s. military’s demand for comprehensive weather data. the americans expressed interest in establishing additional stations in areas surrounding other cpc-controlled territories. recognizing the urgency of acquiring meteorological data, the u.s. proposed airdropping equipment to various observation points. however, general ye jianying (叶剑英) rejected this proposal, remarking, “these meteorological observers [young communist soldiers]were all cattle herders when they were children, and have no parachuting skills. they can only travel to the sites on foot.” 35 after negotiations with wang zheng (王诤), the cpc official in charge of intelligence and communications, an agreement was reached: the u.s. would train cpc soldiers in meteorological observation and telegraphy, enabling them to operate over 20 meteorological stations in communist-controlled regions. these stations would transmit meteorological data to cpc communication hubs, which would then relay the information to the u.s. for operational use. simultaneously, ye jianying issued directives to cpc military units emphasizing the importance of intelligence collection, stating, “our existing intelligence supply to the americans is insufficient… it is imperative that you appoint individuals to focus on collecting 30 “directive of the cpc central committee on diplomatic work(中共中央关于外交工作的指示),” ibid., 219-223. 31 “personnel list from david d. barrett to commander-in-chief zhu de (包瑞德给朱德总司令的人员名单),” china central archives, archive no. j006-008-0058-00010. 32 fuller, thor’s legions, 119. 33 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era, 22. 34 air force command, history of meteorology in the air force of the people’s liberation army (中国人民解放军空军气 象史) (beijing: blue sky press, 1999), 4-5. 35 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era, 30. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 8 and analyzing intelligence.” in a detailed telegram, ye referred the u.s demand, outlined specific requirements for meteorological reporting: key points for meteorological reports: a. station code. b. report date. c. time of observation. d. observed weather conditions at the time (e.g., fog, drizzle, light rain, heavy rain, storm, light snow, heavy snow, clear skies [cloud cover under 30%], overcast [cloud cover over 30%]). e. cloud cover percentage. f. cloud types. g. cloud altitude above ground (in meters). h. cloud movement direction. i. visibility (in kilometers). j. wind direction and strength (calm, light breeze, moderate, strong). k. atmospheric pressure (from barometer readings). l. temperature. meteorological reports should be based on observations taken at 7:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. daily, with two reports submitted each day.36 due to the lack of modern transportation equipment, meteorological instruments for proposed observation sites around yan’an were transported either personally by foot or with the assistance of local livestock.37 for example, by 1945, three graduates of the first training session—ge shimin (葛士民), wang zhenhai (王振海), and hu youxun (胡友训)—had successfully established simple observation sites at the xie county red coast observation station, the hebei-shandong-henan observation station, and the taihang military region observation station, respectively. hu youxun was assigned to shandong, where two chinese military personnel involved in intelligence transmission had already begun self-teaching basic observation techniques using meteorological books. they had also enlisted the help of two 16or 17-year-old students from a local anti-japanese school to assist in meteorological observations. upon his arrival, hu brought a set of lightweight meteorological instruments and initiated more systematic and detailed observation efforts. ge shimin and wang zhenhai undertook similar tasks in their respective stations. both hu and wang conducted observations twice daily, compiling weather conditions into reports that were sent to ge shimin at red coast. ge then forwarded the consolidated reports to yan’an headquarters and the u.s. meteorological team.38 a significant consequence of the u.s. military’s efforts was the integration of cpccontrolled regions into a broader meteorological network supporting operations against japan, effectively bridging the previously isolated meteorological data exchanges between the nationalist and communist regimes. importantly, this network facilitated bidirectional data flow. represented by major charles r. dole, u.s. meteorological officers stationed in yan’an insisted that weather intelligence also be transmitted to yan’an. simultaneously, meteorological reports from yan’an were dispatched twice daily to chongqing. 39 with support from cpc officials, this emerging “red meteorological network” expanded into japanese-occupied areas, establishing additional meteorological stations. john f. fuller vividly described this expansion in his writings, noting that in japanese-occupied zones, the interruption of meteorological reports often indicated that guerrillas had ousted the occupiers. typically, transmissions resumed after several days, signaling the reestablishment of control by cpc forces. 40 36 “outline of intelligence for the military region, jin-sui sub-bureau, taiyue, huazhong, and various divisions, september 1944” (叶剑英发军区、晋绥分局、太岳、华中及各师情报纲要). china central archives(中央档案馆), archive no. j005-008-0035-00004. 37 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era, 30-32. 38 ibid., 32-35. 39 ibid., 40-42. 40 fuller, thor’s legions, 181. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 9 furthermore, concerning the effectiveness of the meteorological network construction, the development of communication networks is also crucial. during the communist-controlled area, both meteorology and radio communication were under the unified management of a military officer, wang zheng. indeed, under wang's efforts, the communist regime had already established its own telegraph network. however, the lack of communication infrastructure had already caused the system to operate at overload. nevertheless, the communist party still hoped that meteorological reports should be transmitted through their radio network. after negotiations, the u.s. military agreed to provide the necessary radio communication equipment. meanwhile, meteorological information in the communist base areas would be collected by the department under wang zheng's command and then handed over to the u.s. military for integration into its larger-scale meteorological network. the entry of the dixie mission enabled the united states to form a complete network of meteorological intelligence for the pacific theater, providing strong military support for operations against japan. additionally, it was the american construction of the meteorological network that broke the isolation between the two regimes in the ideological domain, facilitating the flow of meteorological data and the application of weather analysis. therefore, this phase of cooperation provided important support for allied actions in the far east theater of world war ii. as showed by a gratitude telegram sent from the u.s. air force command to zhu de (朱德): the commander of the tenth meteorological squadron, colonel ellsworth, recently returned from his visit to yan'an, reporting to me the excellent work of the north china government in meteorology and their significant contributions to our joint war effort... i express my sincere thanks. the training of personnel by your government and the tenth meteorological squadron jointly operated meteorological schools have greatly increased the efficiency of our air force's meteorological work. we express our gratitude for your assistance in this important joint effort.41 nurturing the red: meteorological knowledge and training the local personnel when discussing the generation of meteorological knowledge, it is best to explore the details of interaction from the perspective of grassroots practitioners. compared to the nationalist government’s meteorological institutions, the communist-controlled areas had significantly fewer intellectuals with advanced education, let alone specialists dedicated to meteorology. as a result, when the dixie mission proposed establishing a meteorological station, the cpc assigned officers with expertise in communications and intelligence to liaise with the u.s. representatives. this effort was led by wang zheng, the radio communication expert. notably, the first group of communist soldiers to receive meteorological training from the u.s. military were predominantly radio operators. memoirs from cpc participants suggest that in july 1944, wang zheng, on behalf of the cpc leadership, began negotiations with the u.s. military. one critical agreement reached during these talks was that the u.s. would provide training for cpc soldiers in meteorological observation.42 this timeline is corroborated by recently declassified archives, which reveal a more nuanced sequence of events. as early as july 1944, the cpc had already issued a detailed work schedule for the u.s. observation group during their stay in yan’an. this schedule included plans for senior cpc military commanders to introduce the structure and operations 41 “telegram from schoettmeyer to zhu de on thanks for assistance in usaaf meteorological work, 5 january 1945 (斯彻 特梅耶关于感谢协助美国空军⽓象⼯作给朱德的电报),” compilation of u.s. army observer group files in the central archive, 399-400. 42 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era, 22. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 10 of the communist forces and for visits to local production facilities. notably, a key component of the program was the provision of specialized training, explicitly listing a “meteorology and training course” (气象及训练班 ) and identifying the cpc personnel designated to participate.43 for the u.s. observational group, this training was essential because the dixie mission’s meteorological experts could not independently achieve their goal of establishing multiple stations and collecting meteorological data across northern china. the americans not only lacked familiarity with the local terrain and environmental conditions but also faced constant threats from japanese attacks, further underscoring the necessity of enlisting trained local observers to support their efforts. to bridge the language barrier, zhang naizhao (张乃召), a faculty member at the yan’an medical school (延安医科大学), to serve as a translator. zhang was a graduate of the meteorology program at tsinghua university, facilitated the training sessions. the first group of trainees, comprising 21 cpc soldiers, was collectively known as the “qingliangshan meteorological team” (清凉山气象队), named after their training location. the program officially commenced in march 1945 and was completed by may, lasting two months. the training content was designed to align closely with battlefield conditions and was broadly divided into two components. the first focused on u.s. military telegraph communication protocols. the u.s. military transported communist soldiers to their observation group’s radio station, where they practiced using american military radios and sending and receiving reports via the u.s. military station in chongqing. this was aimed at familiarizing them with american military communication standards. a sergeant named walter grace was specifically responsible for instruction. the radio models used during the period were the v-101 and scr284. since most of the selected soldiers were already responsible for intelligence transmission within the communist forces, learning to operate this equipment posed relatively little difficulty. 44 the second component involved basic meteorological observation training. u.s. meteorological personnel instructed trainees on methods for observing parameters such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction, wind speed, visibility, cloud types, cloud height, and cloud movement, as well as the use of meteorological instruments. the main instruments used at the time included aneroid barometers, hand-operated psychrometers, and anemometers. 45 however, as most of the trainees had only received education at a junior high school level, they found the theoretical aspects of meteorology more challenging to understand. however, while the u.s. military provided training in meteorological skills, one can observe the integration of traditional chinese practices into modern meteorological knowledge. carolle j. carter described a striking example of this synthesis: communist soldiers using ancient abacuses to perform technical meteorological calculations—a process she characterized as “surprising ways in which the east blended old customs with new.”46 as elman demonstrated in on their own terms, western science began to be applied in china 43 “work schedule of the u.s. army observer group in yan’an for august (美军观察组八月份在延安期间的工作计划预 定表)” compilation of u.s. army observer group files in the central archives, 101-102. 44 heng wu ed. historical materials on the development of science and technology, 337-356. 45 heng wu, the history of science and technology in the yan’an period (延安时代科技史) (beijing: china academic press, 1988), 20. 46 carter, mission to yenan, 84. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 11 through processes of translation and adaptation as early as the ming and qing periods, illustrating how scientific practice unfolded under local conditions.47 following elman’s work, scholars such as dagmar schäfer shellen wu and fa-ti fan have further emphasized that scientific knowledge is both global in scope and subject to adaptation and reconstruction at the local level.48 given the general lack of science education among the trainees, communist soldiers made significant efforts to adapt to american meteorological training. for instance, in the face of a clear shortage of translators, both sides often relied on an english dictionary to convey specialized meteorological terminology. additionally, due to yan’an’s geographic location and its predominantly clear and cloudless weather, soldiers were required to seize every opportunity to observe and identify clouds whenever they appeared, regardless of the time of day or night. 49 due to the limitations of local production capacity, the trainees used malan paper (马兰纸)—a coarse type of paper made from locally sourced plant fibers—produced by the yan’an paper mill. in the absence of ink, they improvised by mixing soot from iron pots above a stove with water as a substitute.50 this also provides a localized case for understanding scientific practices in china. the us meteorological station used high-altitude balloons linked to radios to observe weather information. before communist soldiers adopted this method, they still relied on visual observation methods and then transmitted the information to chongqing via telegraph through the dixie mission, where it was evaluated and utilized by the meteorological center. 51 if we delve into the specific details of the lives of cpc soldiers and american meteorologists, we will find that they actually had deeper exchanges beyond their professional duties. for example, automobiles were nearly nonexistent in yan’an, and cpc leaders primarily relied on horses for transportation. in contrast, the u.s. observation group had access to several vehicles. during their spare time, personnel from the u.s. weather station taught cpc soldiers how to drive. this skill became crucial during the chinese civil war, as several weather station soldiers utilized their newly acquired driving expertise to transport vital meteorological and communication equipment during the cpc’s retreat from yan’an. additionally, the u.s. brought film projection equipment to the yan’an observation group. they invited cpc soldiers to watch movies and taught them how to operate the equipment. according to a memoir from the cpc side, u.s. personnel occasionally commented on these screenings to emphasize that not everything in america was as ideal as depicted in the films. weather station soldiers also expressed their fatigue with war and their desire to return the united states. 52 the collaboration between the communist party of china and u.s. military meteorologists reveals how meteorological knowledge transcended national boundaries through diplomatic and military interactions. on a micro-level, the exchange of meteorological knowledge depended on the combination of local environments, personnel, and equipment, 47 benjamin elman, on their own terms: science in china, 1550–1900. (cambridge, ma: harvard university press, 2005). 48 see dagmar schäfer, the crafting of the ten thousand things: knowledge and technology in seventeenth-century china (chicago: university of chicago press, 2011). and shellen wu and fati fan, “science in modern china,” in modern science in national, transnational, and global context, ed. hugh slotten, ronald numbers, and david livingstone, the cambridge history of science, vol. 8 (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2020), 521–554. 49 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era, 25. 50 ibid., 26. 51 carter, mission to yenan, 82-88. 52 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era,53-55. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 12 producing distinctive narratives, effects, and influences. this provides a vivid case study for understanding how diplomatic relationships facilitated the flow of knowledge. meteorological expertise was not only understood but also applied at the grassroots level in yan’an by soldiers with no formal meteorological training. with the aid of a small number of educated translators, the latest meteorological theories from the u.s. were adopted by what was then considered an underdeveloped communist army. this highlights the importance of examining meteorological history before the establishment of the people’s republic of china, moving beyond the conventional focus on highly educated scientists and engineers within governmental institutions. the yan’an case offers a localized perspective on knowledge adaptation. moreover, these instances challenge the conventional narrative of severe sino-american antagonism in the post-war period, presenting a contrasting picture to the portrayal in the xinhua news agency’s reports mentioned in the beginning of this paper. a shift in diplomatic relations in existing chinese and english scholarship, much attention has been given to how the united states ultimately shifted its support toward the nationalist government, examining the domestic reasons, international factors, and subsequent consequences of u.s. policy toward china.53 however, for the history of meteorology—particularly the history of interactions between the cpc and the u.s. military—this policy shift had direct and tangible effects on meteorological work. on 6 september 1944, patrick jay hurley, acting as president franklin d. roosevelt’s personal representative, arrived in china. his primary mission was to mediate the escalating conflict between chiang kai-shek and general joseph stilwell, ensuring u.s. control over chinese military forces to coordinate operations in the broader far east theater. contrary to expectations, tensions between chiang and stilwell worsened. on october 18, roosevelt ordered stilwell’s recall, replacing him with general albert coady wedemeyer. during stilwell’s tenure, he had suggested hurley visit yan’an to gain insights into the communist movement, and senior communist leader zhu de had extended an invitation to hurley.54 this visit materialized on 7 november. during his visit to yan’an, hurley held discussions with mao zedong and other communist leaders. acting in his personal capacity, he endorsed and signed the “five-point declaration” with the cpc, aiming to mediate relations between the communists and the nationalist government. however, upon his return to chongqing, the nationalist government rejected the proposal. instead of alleviating tensions, this mediation effort further escalated the rivalry between the two regimes. following the breakdown of negotiations, hurley openly aligned himself with the nationalist government, transitioning from his role as the president’s special envoy to the u.s. ambassador to china.55 this shift in hurley’s stance had a direct impact on the dixie mission’s meteorological collaboration with the cpc in yan’an. records of a 1945 conversation between ye jianying and members of the u.s. observation group highlight this shift. the u.s. military initially sought to expand telegraph 53 in addition to the personal memoirs of individuals such as john paton davies, wilbur j. peterkin, and david d. barrett, which were discussed earlier, numerous historians have explored this topic. notable examples include e.j. kahn’s the china hands: america’s foreign service officers and what befell them (new york: viking press, 1972), robert p. newman’s owen lattimore and the “loss” of china (berkeley: university of california press, 1992), and graham peck’s two kinds of time (seattle: university of washington press, 2008), among others. 54 carter, mission to yenan, 116-117. 55 ibid., 118-126. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 13 networks in communist-controlled shanxi-suiyuan (晋绥) regions and conduct atmospheric balloon measurements. however, ye jianying remarked: this year can be divided into two periods: before and after hurley’s statement. in the earlier period, we cooperated unconditionally with the u.s. military … after the [hurley] statement, the u.s. responded to our cooperation with unwillingness … previously, issues such as naval landings, meteorology, communications, and intelligence were all considered within the framework of collaboration with the u.s. military … now, the entire plan needs to be rediscussed from the beginning.56 in the realm of meteorological intelligence cooperation, while shifts in diplomatic relations did not result in the immediate cessation of all collaboration, practical operations increasingly reflected a desire to safeguard distinct political and strategic interests. for instance, as ge shimin recalled, he was instructed by his superiors to ensure that every meteorological report sent to the u.s. military was also provided to the cpc’s intelligence department for translation and analysis.57 similarly, in 1946, when nationalist air force pilot liu shanben (刘善本) defected to a communist-controlled area, u.s. personnel stationed at the meteorological site sought immediate clarification regarding the circumstances surrounding the defection. however, cpc meteorological and telegraph personnel deliberately delayed transmitting information until the event was publicly disclosed. 58as fuller aptly noted, the efficiency of the red meteorological network often mirrored the u.s. government’s stance toward the communist regime: it thrived during periods of favorable relations and deteriorated as tensions escalated. 59 as the tide of world war ii shifted, japan found itself increasingly unable to sustain its occupation of mainland china. in april 1945, president franklin d. roosevelt’s sudden death brought harry s. truman to the presidency. on 6 august, the united states dropped an atomic bomb on japan, and the soviet union launched its offensive in manchuria, driving out japanese forces. japan surrendered on august 15, marking the end of world war ii. for china, however, the surrender intensified the growing tensions between the nationalist government and the communist party. delegations frequently traveled between yan’an and chongqing to negotiate, with meteorological work becoming a critical priority during this period. in november 1945, patrick hurley resigned from his post, and president truman dispatched general george marshall to china in an effort to mediate between the two regimes. as carolle carter observed, although marshall initially succeeded in reducing the likelihood of a full-scale civil war, he was ultimately unable to bring both sides together as hurley had attempted to do. 60 in march 1946, the us military formally proposed the withdrawal of its observation mission from yan'an and sent a telegram to zhou enlai. zhou replied, hoping that the us military would stay a little longer until withdrawing its headquarters in china at the same time. however, by early april, colonel eaton, who was then in charge of the observation mission, received orders to retreat, leaving behind some officers as liaison points with yan'an. thus, the 56 “record of conversation between ye jianying and members of the u.s. observation group (peterkin, et al.) on june 2nd” (六月二日叶参谋长与美军观察组毕德金中校、斯文生少校及斯特尔上尉谈话记录), china central archives(中央档案 馆), archive no. j006-009-0004-00002. 57 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era, 33. 58 ibid., 51-52. 59 ibid., 181. 60 carter, mission to yenan, 189-190. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 14 "dixie mission" was downgraded to a small liaison point, with the remaining us soldiers renamed as the us military liaison group. 61 at this time, clifford f. young, a member of the meteorological team, became the commanding officer of the liaison group. for a while, he and another soldier became the only members of the liaison group in yan'an. meanwhile, communist soldiers began taking over the management of the meteorological stations. due to young's lack of manpower, the communists provided him with a team of soldiers. consequently, a us army major commanded a work group of the communist party of china responsible for meteorological observations, radio communication, and other tasks. 62 after most of the u.s. military meteorological personnel withdrew, the communist army assumed full responsibility for meteorological operations. under wang zheng’s recommendation, zhang naizhao led a group of young students from yan’an university, who had received basic education, to take over the observation station from the u.s. military meteorological group. this marked the establishment of the “yan’an meteorological observatory” in communist party history. the takeover included accessing an abandoned u.s. military warehouse filled with meteorological equipment and radio communication devices, which later proved crucial for training their own meteorological personnel. 63 the selection of students for this program emphasized not only technical skills but also political reliability. since the primary mission of the observatory was to ensure the safety of mao zedong and other leaders during flights, the first batch of selected individuals largely came from strong communist backgrounds. for instance, zou jingmeng (邹竞蒙) was the son of the renowned revolutionary martyr and publisher zou taofen (邹韬奋), while mao xuehua (毛雪华), chen yongmin(陈涌珉), and others had already been admitted as communist party members, along with the originally trusted zhang naizhao. although relations between the communist party and the u.s. military had begun to deteriorate, the training of these young students was still conducted under the guidance of the remaining u.s. meteorological group in yan’an. the training, which lasted just three weeks, focused heavily on practical skills, including ground observations, wind measurements using theodolites, and the use of radio instruments for detecting high-altitude temperature and pressure. in october 1946, a graduation ceremony was held for the trainees, during which ye jianying addressed the group: “you are the first batch of meteorological personnel of the eighth route army (八路军) headquarters meteorological observatory. in the future, you will also work under the leadership of colonel eaton, so you must follow his command and work diligently.” u.s. military officers who had not yet withdrawn attended the ceremony, and each graduate wore the armband of the u.s. military’s meteorological branch as a symbol of friendship. 64 regardless of the circumstances, for members of the observation mission, the withdrawal of the us military seemed only a matter of time. the was despite the communist party’s hopes to adopt a policy of “differentiation”, opposing individuals who supported the nationalist government while trying to win over neutral or sympathetic individuals, as the us 61 ibid., 191-192. 62 ibid., 192. 63 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era, 48. 64 ibid., 40. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 15 decision-makers gradually turned towards supporting the nationalist government. however, changes in the political and diplomatic situation were not entirely mirrored in personal interactions in china. the relationship between the cpc and the united states cannot be fully characterized as simply adversarial or cooperative. for example, by october 1946, the communists had already adopted slogans like “americans, get out of china,” yet members of the u.s. military liaison group continued to engage regularly with senior cpc officials. these interactions ranged from attending thanksgiving banquets to participating in daily leisure activities such as playing bridge with communist leaders.65according to the cpc’s official accounts, key members of the dixie mission maintained positive personal relationships with communist officials even as formal relations grew strained. for instance, young, upon his return to hawaii, sent five volumes of cutting-edge meteorological textbooks to yan’an.66 these gestures highlight an enduring spirit of collaboration, even amidst the shifting geopolitical tensions of the time. with the withdrawal of the us military, the actual learning of these students did not end. zhang naizhao and other technical personnel transferred from various departments began using the us military's textbooks to teach meteorological theory. these textbooks represented the newer theories and monographs in the american meteorological community at that time. in the end, in 1947, as chiang kai-shek's forces launched an offensive against the communist party's core area in northern shaanxi, the communist party chose to withdraw from the region. prior to this, on march 11, 1947, members of the us liaison group flew to nanjing by plane, marking the formal end of direct contact between the united states and the communist party of china during world war ii. conclusion if we return to the perspective offered by the xinhua editorial referenced at the beginning, this article presents a markedly different and far more intricate picture of sinoamerican interactions. even today, historical interpretations of u.s.-china relations are often dominated by the ideological confrontations that originated in the 1950s and 1960s. in contrast, this article sheds light on an earlier narrative—one in which the nascent communist regime engaged in diplomacy with the united states before the founding of the people’s republic of china. while these interactions ultimately succumbed to shifts in diplomatic relations, they nonetheless provide an early and noteworthy precursor to the later thaw in sino-american relations in 1970s and the diplomatic dynamics of globalization. unlike many narratives that focus on political and military history, this article highlights the crucial role played by scientific knowledge. meteorological science and diplomacy were deeply intertwined during this period. without the negotiations and coordination of diplomatic relations, the establishment of a meteorological network would not have been possible, nor would the flow of meteorological knowledge from the u.s. military to yan’an have occurred. conversely, the pressing need for weather intelligence was one of the factors that motivated the u.s. to dispatch the dixie mission to yan’an. this study offers a compelling case for the field of science diplomacy, demonstrating how a focus on scientific knowledge can uncover and reinterpret historical processes and impacts. in this case, u.s. meteorological expertise played a dual role. on one hand, the translation of english-language textbooks, personnel training, and the provision of advanced observational instruments facilitated the transfer of knowledge to cpc-controlled territories. 65 carter, mission to yenan, 196-197. 66 meteorology in the yan’an era compilation committee, meteorology in the yan'an era, 55. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 16 on the other hand, the application of meteorological knowledge in yan’an and its surrounding areas revealed numerous instances where this knowledge was integrated with local practices. although the flow of this knowledge was driven by specific military objectives, it enriches our understanding of how meteorological knowledge disseminated across geopolitical and cultural boundaries. in other words, the generation, flow, and application of meteorological knowledge were not limited to u.s.-trained scientists or established scholars. the case of yan’an offers a localized perspective on grassroots practices, demonstrating that the creation and utilization of scientific knowledge can occur in unexpected and non-traditional settings, shaped by the unique historical and political conditions of the time. on another note, the subsequent impact of this event is equally worthy of attention. after the u.s. military’s departure, the soldiers trained in meteorology continued to use the instructional materials and instruments left behind by the u.s. forces. they were later deployed to more regions to train additional personnel in meteorological skills. following the establishment of the people’s republic of china, many of these individuals were assigned to take over meteorological stations previously operated by the nationalist government, often assuming significant roles. while it is essential to acknowledge the contributions of meteorological scientists who had served under the nationalist government and scholars returning from studies in the united states or europe after the chinese civil war, the technicians trained during the yan’an period held a unique advantage: they enjoyed the political trust of the communist party. as they gained experience and matured into skilled technical bureaucrats, some rose to leadership positions within the meteorological bureau. for instance, zhang naizhao and zou jingmeng eventually became heads of the china meteorological administration, with zou further serving as the chairman of the world meteorological organization (wmo) on behalf of china. this highlights the enduring significance of yan’an as a critical origin point in the history of meteorology in the people’s republic of china. finally, this research offers valuable insights into understanding contemporary sinoamerican relations. it cautions against oversimplifying the causes of deteriorating relations by attributing them solely to ideological conflict. such reasoning often obscures deeper, more nuanced dynamics. this study provides a robust counterexample to the binary narrative of ideological confrontation, underscoring the importance of evaluating bilateral relations on multiple levels. ideology should not be the sole determining factor. despite political tensions, transnational flows of knowledge, facilitated by scientific and civilian exchanges, can persist and foster collaboration, mutual understanding, and cultural exchange. as john s. service, a member of the dixie mission, observed, no communist society has ever been as open to the united states as the communist party of china was during the eight months from july 1944 to march 1945. during this period, numerous americans traversed cpc-controlled territories, engaged in various forms of cooperation, and examined all facets of the local situation.67 this historical moment demonstrates the potential for meaningful engagement and knowledge exchange even amidst political divergence, offering a historical lens through which to view and perhaps reflecting on present-day u.s.-china relations. 67 john s. service, the amerasia papers: some problems in the history of us-china relations (berkeley: center for chinese studies, university of california, 1971). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 17 acknowledgements this research was supported by the cast-pku joint institute for science and culture project ‘the role and function of scientists in science diplomacy’ (project no. 2023-hjsdx02). i’m grateful to professor zhang li and aya homei for their valuable comments on an earlier draft, to the participants of the workshop organized by liu xiao for their helpful suggestions, and to the anonymous reviewers for their insightful feedback. microsoft word 2) matson .docx history of meteorology 8 (2017) 35 “the ozone of patriotism”: meteorology, electricity, and the body in the nineteenth-century yellowstone region kelsey matson kelsey.matson@msu.montana.edu montana state university this paper speaks to the theme of this special issue of history of meteorology by “relocating meteorology” in three ways. first, it geographically re-centers meteorology in the rocky mountain west of the late nineteenth century, placing particular attention on the yellowstone region. yellowstone has long been connected with advances in the biological sciences, but little scholarship examines the role of either meteorological or electrical science in the region.1 second, it repositions meteorology thematically by contextualizing it within the development of popular and scientific discourses on the physics of electricity and electrochemistry. finally, it relocates meteorology within the emplaced and material human body by examining qualitative accounts of bodily encounters with atmospheric electricity published in scientific and technical journals.2 the primary thesis is twofold. first, rather than being rejected in favor of more objective meteorological instruments, the human body and its subjective sensory experiences were crucial components of the scientist-explorer’s toolkit. especially in the study of meteorology and atmospheric electricity, the body served as a remarkably sensitive and useful tool. furthermore, these subjective bodily experiences were published in respected scientific journals and were largely accepted by the scientific community as valid technical data. theories of electricity, as it 1 for a history of science in the park, see richard west sellars, preserving nature in the national parks (new haven: yale, 1997): 3. 2 this article uses the term “atmospheric electricity” in roughly the sense in which it appeared in victorian-era parlance, to refer to an atmosphere charged with static electricity as to be detected by the senses or by mechanical instrumentation. although the definition has not changed significantly, this term is uncommon today. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 36 existed in both the lab and the sky, were in flux and highly contested at this time, and where mechanical apparatuses failed, the senses could sometimes succeed. secondly, this article suggests that these visceral and phenomenal experiences with atmospheric electricity, as interpreted through the lens of science, helped to solidify in americans’ minds a deep and intrinsic connection between the human body and the electrical yellowstone landscape with ozone acting as the physiological mechanism of action. this cutting-edge science bolstered and lent scientific credence to the discourse of yellowstone as a healthful climate. examined through this narrative, yellowstone’s early history is as much a part of the histories of meteorology and medical climatology as it is tourism and conservation. this work is indebted to the rich and comprehensive literature on the history of meteorological observation in the nineteenth century. perhaps most salient to this study is katherine anderson’s predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology. anderson explores the tension between the institutionalized and formalized science of meteorology in the late-victorian era, and the informal and highly local “weather wisdom” of everyday victorians: “because it was perceived as a form of automatic operation, weather wisdom was akin to the tools of modern science.” this study differs from anderson’s, however, by attributing a kind of embodied weather wisdom not only to the uneducated and the “roughest sorts,” but to highly-trained experts as well. 3 jeremy vetter tells a similar story in field life: science in the american west during the railroad era. vetter shows how the peculiar contexts of western geography, infrastructure, and social networks shaped scientific knowledge, and how that knowledge in turn shaped western landscapes.4 electricity, in both the lab and in nature also bears a significant historical literature. daniel french’s recent book, when they hid the fire: a history of electricity and invisible energy in america explores the efforts of late-nineteenth century americans to grapple culturally and intellectually with electricity’s intangibility. michael brian schiffer brings together electricity, environment, science, and the body in draw the lightning down: benjamin franklin and electrical technology in the age of enlightenment.5 in its theoretical and methodological approach, this article is in dialogue with several emerging and interrelated bodies of literature. most notably, this article is influenced by continuing trans-disciplinary conversations surrounding the dual theoretical approaches of phenomenology and materiality studies. in recent years, historians of science have increasingly looked to the psychological dimensions and constructed nature of objectivity as an epistemological goal.6 relatedly, the role of sensory perception in the making of knowledge has also come to the 3 katherine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: university of chicago press, 2005), 177. 4 jeremy vetter, field life: science in the american west during the railroad era (pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press, 2016). 5 michael brian schiffer, draw the lightning down: benjamin franklin and electrical technology in the age of enlightenment (berkeley: university of california press, 2006). 6 for example: lorraine daston, “on scientific observation,” isis 99, no. 1 (march 2008): 97-110; lorraine daston and peter galison, objectivity (boston: zone books, 2010). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 37 fore in the history of science, dovetailing with a broader turn towards critical histories of the senses.7 although less frequently used in studies of history, the philosophical and methodological tools of phenomenology and spatial-cultural theory, long used in the adjacent fields of geography and anthropology, have informed this article’s interpretation of the embodied and environmentally contextual nature of lived experiences. a branch of epistemology, phenomenology suggests that an understanding of the external world of environment and landscape cannot be separated from the experiential reality of inhabiting a living, material body.8 similarly, innovative approaches in critical theory, materiality studies, and network theory have further problematized the construct of subject/object dualism. like sensory and phenomenological approaches, a material interpretation of knowledge creation is inherently transdisciplinary. scholars from across fields have approached the questions of the non-human and the material from diverse angles.9 in the 1980s and 1990s, latour and law’s actor network theory was instrumental in illustrating how human and non-humans actants shaped history collectively.10 subsequent theorists reframed and reassembled its general principles in various ways. the work of ian bogost and jane bennett, particularly her work on assemblage theory and electricity, influenced this study.11 7 for a general overview of sensory history see mark m. smith, sensory history (berkeley: university of california press, 2008). smith is also the series editor of the “studies in sensory history” series from the university of illinois press. though not strictly a sensory history, daniel lord smail, on deep history and the brain (berkeley: university of california press, 2007) looks to the neurochemical processes that shape history. regarding subjectivity and the senses in scientific inquiry, see dorindra outram, “on being perseus: new knowledge, dislocation, and enlightenment exploration” in geography and enlightenment, david n. livingstone and charles w. j. withers (chicago: university of chicago press, 1999); simon schaffer, “astronomers mark time: discipline and the personal equation,” science in context 2, no. 1 (april 1988): 115-45; christopher j. phillips, “the taste machine: sense, subjectivity, and statistics in the california wine world,” social studies of science 46, no. 3 (june 1, 2016): 461-81; steven shapin “a taste of science: making the subjective objective in the california wine world,” social studies of science 46, no. 3 (june 1, 2016): 436-60; and steven shapin, historical studies of science as if it was produced by people with bodies, situated in time, space, culture, and society, and struggling for credibility and authority (baltimore: johns hopkins university press, 2010). 8 as a philosophy, phenomenology has its roots in the work of martin heidegger, edmund husserl, and maurice merleau-ponty. in the 1970s, geographer yi-fu tuan was instrumental in bringing it to contemporary scholarship in a practical and accessible way. see yi-fu tuan, space and place: the perspective of experience (minneapolis: university of minnesota press, 1977). more recent examples include: john wylie, “a single day’s walking: narrating self and landscape on the south west coast path,” transactions of the institute of british geographers 30, no. 2 (june 2005): 234-247; hayden lorimer, “telling small stories: spaces of knowledge and the practice of geography” transactions of the institute of british geographers 28, no 2 (june 2003): 197-218; and tyra a. olstad, zen of the plains: experiencing wild western places (denton, tx: university of north texas press, 2014). 9 for example, sophia roosth explores the subjectivity of yeast cells in “screaming yeast: sonocytology, cytoplasmic milieus, and cellular subjectivities,” critical inquiry 35, no. 3 (2009): 332-50. 10 bruno latour, science in action: how to follow scientists and engineers through society (cambridge: harvard university press, 1987); bruno latour, reassembling the social: an introduction to actor-network-theory (oxford: oxford university press, 2005). 11 ian bogost. alien phenomenology, or what it’s like to be a thing. minneapolis: university of minnesota press, 2012; jane bennett, vibrant matter: a political ecology of things (durham: duke university press, 2010); jane bennett, “the agency of assemblages and the north american blackout,” public culture 17(3): 445–65. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 38 this paper begins with a brief assessment of the conceptual roots of environmental electricity. then, it will turn to a core case study emerging from the yellowstone region of wyoming territory in 1871. next, it will move to a comparative analysis of several other descriptions of bodily encounters with electrical storms in the rocky mountains. finally, it will explore two ideas: the linking of electricity and the chemical ozone, and the shift in popular perception of the rockies’ electrical climate from fearsome to healthful. ultimately, this article seeks to show some of the ways that the wild landscape of the rocky mountains and its uniquely electrical climate moved—both bodily and psychologically—those who sought to understand it in the late ninetieth and early twentieth centuries. electrical america across cultures, humans have long been aware of the physiological effects of lightning and other atmospheric phenomena on organic bodies.12 lightning has played a major role in nearly every ancient culture and religion, and modern society continues to engender stories, myths, and other philosophies regarding its origins, behavior, and meaning. the nez perce of the northern rocky mountains, as well as other indigenous groups, described tremendous and powerful mythological thunderbirds, whose eyes flashed lighting and wings created thunder. antagonizing a thunderbird could easily result in the untimely demise of a foolish individual.13 modern science did not stray far from this idea. lightning and other forms of electricity had significant power over organic bodies in a variety of ways. ideas about the sources, operational mechanisms, and effects of that electricity became increasingly complex and contested over time. paradoxically, electricity appeared to be both innate to the body and necessary for life, yet too much of it could prove fatal. nineteenth-century scientists recognized that electricity existed atmospherically and played an important role in the expression of climatological and meteorological phenomena. benjamin franklin’s famed 1752 kite experiment had cemented the unity of lighting with laboratory-produced sparks, and the work of subsequent meteorologists further reinforced these notions.14 to what extent and in what ways atmospheric electricity influenced weather and climate was a subject of significant debate throughout the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, however. scientists proposed electricity’s involvement in everything from wind currents, cloud formation, 12 mary ann cooper, et al., “lightning injuries,” in wilderness medicine, ed. paul s. auerbach (maryland heights, mo: mosby, 2001), 13 roy g. willis, ed., world mythology, (new york: henry holt & co., 1993), 225. 14 j. alan chalmers, atmospheric electricity (london: pergamon press ltd., 1967), 2. see also, schiffer, draw the lightning down. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 39 tornadoes, floods, and rainfall,15 to vegetation growth,16 the formation of mineral deposits,17 ball lightning, cloudbursts,18 and the aurora borealis.19 hypotheses regarding the origins of atmospheric charge were nearly as numerous. friction generated by moving air currents, the evaporative component of the water cycle, solar energy and flares,20 the metabolic processes of plants,21 and the “latent caloric” that was believed to fill the spaces between atoms of water were all considered to be scientifically plausible causal factors.22 science of the nineteenth century reached few sure consensuses regarding the mysterious role of “electric fluid” in shaping climate and weather patterns. it was known that its influence was substantial, but scientists also generally conceded that “electrical conditions of the air do not seem to have any simple relation to one another.”23 despite atmospheric electricity’s propensity to defy scientific explanation, one further generalization tended to be agreed upon: certain geographic regions were more prone to higher atmospheric potential energy, as well as its accompanying spectacular phenomena. m. j. fournot, a french specialist in the meteorology of thunderstorms, termed these places “electric countries,” determining that many such electric countries existed in the americas, most notably the united states and its territorial possessions.24 throughout its expansive geography, the united states seemed to demonstrate what fournot and other europeans interpreted as an excess of atmospheric electricity. in a 1795 tour of the united states, french philosophe constantin françois de chassebœuf, comte de volney, remarked that he perceived the country to possess a greater intensity and abundance of robust static electricity in the atmosphere, even in the absence of storms, as compared to the european continent. “this difference may be made perceptible to the senses at any time, without any complicated apparatus,” he noted, awestruck, in his 1804 publication, tableau du climat et du sol des états-unis. superior vividness of lightning and loudness of thunder further evidenced this difference, as “the electric fluid appeared to me so copious, that all the air was on fire. its arrowy and zigzag lines were broader and longer than any i had ever before seen, and so strong were the pulsations of this fluid, that they seemed to my ear and my face like the wind produced by the wings of some passing bird.”25 yale professor of natural philosophy elias loomis further described related phenomena, noting the frustrating 15 charles l. hogeboom, “what is a cloud-burst?” the outlook (july 7, 1894): 13-14. 16 constantin-françois volney, a view of the soil and climate of the united states of america, trans. charles brockden brown (philadelphia: j. conrad & co., 1804), 199. 17 rossiter w. raymond, statistics of mines and mining in the states and territories west of the rocky mountains (washington d.c.: government printing office, 1873), 502. 18 hogeboom, 13-14. 19 reuben phillips, “on the aurora” proceedings of the royal society of london 8 (1856-1857): 214-15. 20 amédée guillemin, electricity and magnetism, ed. silvanus p. thompson (new york: macmillan and co., 1891), 534-35. 21 george m. beard, “atmospheric electricity and ozone: their relation to health and disease” the popular science monthly 4, no. 25 (feb. 1874): 463. 22 “atmospheric electricity,” the knickerbocker 4 (1834): 464. 23 thomas russell, meteorology: weather, and methods of forecasting (new york: macmillan company, 1906), 81. 24 guillemin, 537. 25 volney, 198. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 40 tendency for free-floating bits of dust and lint to affix themselves to the body via electrical cling. carpeting similarly elicited “little crackling noises” and sparks, the charge from which could be transferred back and forth between the body and surrounding objects: “you can sometimes even light a gas jet with your finger after having shuffled along on the insulating carpet.”26 professionalizing humboldtian scientists increasingly fetishized scientific instruments and their uncanny ability to render nature’s hidden processes detectible. instrumentation, and its delicate calibrations, was at the heart of humboldtian scientific identity. 27 the rugged nature of the american environment itself rendered these technologies notably difficult to handle in the field. volney and loomis easily sensed a preponderance of electrical charge in the new england atmosphere, but those who explored the continent’s high and dry interior found the phenomenon amplified by an order of magnitude. nowhere was it more pronounced than along the north-south wrinkle formed by the geological dividing line of the rocky mountains. despite the many mysteries surrounding atmospheric electricity and the lack of any mathematical law governing its expression, atmospheric scientists unquestionably agreed that the voltage potential of the air increased with height.28 the rocky mountains, with their quintuple-digit elevations, seemed to be nature’s dramatic organic “laboratories” in which one might test this phenomenon.29 of the rockies’ numerous geological and environmental curiosities, the most “unnatural”30 and “freakish”31 was nearly always agreed to be the yellowstone region of northwest wyoming territory. although popular and scientific interest regarding the yellowstone area has historically tended to gravitate towards its remarkable geological and geothermal features, the region is replete with a wide variety of exceptional organic and environmental processes. not only its peculiar geothermal activity, but also its driving rivers, blistering wildfires, scorching summer sunshine, and torrential thunderstorms all served as testament to the dynamic, energetic, and ephemeral nature of the yellowstone environment. voyagers to the area, scientists and amateurs alike, did not overlook the latter of these features. numerous traveler narratives recount tales of the region’s dramatic summer thunderstorms with a combination of sublime awe and anxiety. in an 1859 meteorological survey of the territory, army corps of engineers brigadier general w. f. raynolds recorded a strange mixed weather event in which “a storm of mingled rain, snow and hail, accompanied with vivid lightning and heavy peals of thunder” emerged from behind the nearby mountains, “which were 26 guillemin, 537-8. 27 d. graham burnett, masters of all they surveyed: exploration, geography, and a british el dorado (chicago: university of chicago press, 2000), 93. see also: william h. goetzmann, exploration and empire: the explorer and the scientist in the winning of the american west (austin: texas state historical association, 1993), 303-4 and susan faye cannon, science in culture: the early victorian period (new york: science history publications, 1978), 103. 28 russell, 123. 29 frank b. king, “in nature’s laboratory: driving and fishing in yellowstone park,” overland monthly 29, no. 2 (june 1897): 594. 30 ferdinand v. hayden, bulletin of the united states geological and geographical survey of the territories (washington d.c.: government printing office, 1873), 54. 31 edwin j. stanley, rambles in wonderland or up the yellowstone (new york: d. appleton and co., 1883), 62. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 41 shrouded in the densest clouds, while ahead the sun continued to shine brightly and its rays were brilliantly reflected from the snow-clad peaks before us, unveiled by any apparent vapors.”32 nathanial pitt langford of the famed 1870 washburn expedition remembered “terrific tempests, with all the incidental accompaniments of thunder [and] lightning…afford the most awe-inspiring exhibition in nature.”33 six years later, captain daniel c. pearson of the second cavalry recounted somewhat less enthusiastically the “terrible violence” of frequent, drenching nighttime thunderstorms.34 visitors to yellowstone often readily identified lightning storms and other electrical phenomena as defining features of its landscape, often noting their brutality and unusual characteristics. but the magnificent and sublime effects of atmospheric electricity extended beyond the landscape, permeating the human body itself. visceral encounters with electricity were, according to amédée guillemin in 1891, “not rare in high mountains, without however being frequent.”35 descriptions of the bodily effects of high-altitude climatological electricity abound in contemporary scientific literature, but nowhere was the anomaly more extensively recorded, nor the descriptions more dramatic than in the rocky mountains, where explorers and surveyors believed that circumstances combined to make the area “singularly favorable to the study of condensation of [vapors] and concentration of electric currents.”36 although the specific language describing the experiences varied, the general experience remained remarkably consistent. as meteorologists and geographers attempted to objectively survey mountaintops throughout the rocky mountains, the sensory reality that the body manifested became at times even more salient and meaningful than mechanical instrumentation. mountaintop scientists could not ignore the reality that atmospheric electricity enthralled the entire corporeal body, stimulating all five senses, plus the uncanny sixth sense of the sublime. the 1871 hayden geological survey, led by university of pennsylvania geology professor ferdinand hayden, saw one such event. hayden handpicked his team members, 32 in all, from his friends and colleagues. many were college-educated, bringing expertise in numerous scientific and technical disciplines, including geography, geology, cartography, mineralogy, botany, zoology, ornithology, and photography, among others.37 geographer henry gannett worked 32 w. f. raynolds, report on the exploration of the yellowstone river (washington d.c.: government printing office, 1868), 91. 33 nathaniel pitt langford, diary of the washburn expedition to the yellowstone and firehole rivers in the year 1870 (st. paul: nathaniel pitt langford, 1905), 9. 34 daniel c. pearson, “military notes” journal of the united states cavalry association 12, no. 41 (march 1899), 305. 35 guillemin, 542. 36 frederic m. endlich, “electric phenomena in the rocky mountains,” the penn monthly 6 (june, 1875): 405. 37 aubrey l. haines, yellowstone national park: its exploration and establishment (washington d.c.: government printing office, 1974), 98. historians of science have contextualized the institution of exploratory expeditions within the contexts of experimental observation and the mechanisms of state power. for example: kohler, landscapes and labscapes, and expeditions as experiments: practicing observation and documentation, ed. marianne klemun and ulrike spring (london: palgrave, 2016) examine the intellectual and geographic spaces of knowledge creation. marlene deahl merrill, ed., yellowstone and the great west-journals, letters and images from the 1871 hayden expedition (lincoln: university of nebraska press, 1999), 31–3. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 42 directly under hayden, his responsibilities including gathering meteorological, astronomical, and hypsometric data on the yellowstone. although only 25 at the time of the yellowstone excursion, his colleagues already lauded gannett for his pioneering cartographic style and talent for disseminating geographic knowledge and nurturing a popular appreciation of it.38 assisting gannett were various other technical specialists, each of whom was handpicked by hayden. although he held a medical degree, 21-year-old dr. albert peale never practiced medicine, but rather served as the expedition’s chief mineralogist.39 also accompanying the party was mechanical engineer alexander e. brown.40 the hayden expedition was an opportunity not only to put their newly-earned professional credentials to use, but also to test themselves physically, pushing their bodies to the limit on the six-week backcountry excursion. rocky mountain science and the electrical body on july 15th in the sultry summer of 1872, the team set out for the yellowstone from fort ellis in southwest montana territory. gannett was responsible for an array of scientific instruments, including an assortment of various types and sensitivities of barometers, thermometers, and other accoutrements. astronomical observations required an additional set of entirely different devices, including telescopes, chronometers, and sextants. gannett complained of the fallibility of these instruments, some of which “got out of order” to the extent that they were “of no use on the trip.”41 despite these setbacks, he and his team did their duty, collecting such an abundance of meteorological statistics—including hourly measurements of barometric pressure; dry bulb, wet bulb, and dew point temperature; relative humidity; wind velocity and direction; and cloud character—that they had to be published in an additional volume printed separately from the survey’s primary report.42 in the expedition’s comprehensive technical report, gannett recounted “a rather singular experience” that he faced in common with brown and peale.43 in the afternoon of july 26th, 1872, the group clambered up a mountain near the gardiner’s river springs, hauling with them a cumbersome and unwieldy variety of gear. 38 n.h. darton, "memoir of henry gannett," annals of the association of american geographers 7 (jan. 1917): 68. 39 henry brown floyd macfarland, district of columbia: concise biographies of its prominent and representative contemporary citizens, and valuable statistical data (washington d.c.: the potomac press, 1908): 364. 40 paul latzke, “the unknown captains of industry,” the saturday evening post 174, no. 51 (june 21, 1902): 6. 41 ferdinand v. hayden, sixth annual report of the united states geological survey of the territories, (washington d.c.: government printing office, 1872), 795-7. 42 ibid, 806. 43 albert peale. “friday, july 26th.” diary. page 18, yell 2466, museum collection, heritage and research center, yellowstone national park. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 43 a thunder-shower was approaching as we neared the summit of the mountain. i was above the others of the party, and when about 50 feet below the summit the electric current began to pass through my body. at first i felt nothing, but heard a crackling noise, similar to a rapid discharge of sparks from a friction machine. immediately after, i began to feel a tingling or prickling sensation in my head and the ends of my fingers, which, as well as the noise, increased rapidly, until, when i reached the top, the noise, which had not changed its character, was deafening, and my hair stood completely on end, while the tingling, pricking sensation was absolutely painful. taking off my hat partially relieved it. i started down again, and met the others 25 or 30 feet below the summit. they were affected similarly, but in a less degree. one of them attempted to go to the top, but had proceeded but a few feet when he received quite a severe shock, which felled his as if he had stumbled. we then returned down the mountain about 300 feet, and to this point we still heard and felt the electricity.44 that evening, peale recounted the experience in his diary: we reached the summit of the peak about 4 o’clock. there was a strong cloud all about us. gannett was a little ahead and we saw him hurrying back to us with his hair standing on end. as he neared us we could hear a crackling noise as though there were a lot of frictional electrical machines all about him. we soon began to feel it ourselves. gannett said [that when] he got to the summit the electricity was so strong that he was obliged to put down the gradienter & hurry down. brown tried to go up and get it but got a shock on the top of his head and came back in a hurry also. we then descended about 100 feet having the noise all about us as though there were a lot of electrical machines about us.45 the eerie and awesome experience on the mountain that day so inspired gannett that he subsequently christened the mountain electric peak, a toponym it retains to this day.46 if the earth in its entirety was “an immense galvanic pile, forever in action, under the guidance of unchangeable laws,”47 then electric peak was a “giant storage battery,” or a “huge leyden jar.”48 that gannett chose to document this experience alongside the rest of his technical and quantitative data is revealing. he interpreted the qualitative experience of his electrified and instrumentalized 44 hayden, sixth annual report, 807. 45 peale. 46 ibid. 47 “atmospheric electricity,” 466. 48 burton holmes, “the yellowstone national park,” travelogues 12 (chicago: the travelogue bureau, 1914), 2930. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 44 body to be as scientifically meaningful as the reams of numerical data that his mechanical implements provided. peculiar and unsettling as encounters with high-altitude atmospheric electricity were, they were not uncommon, and scientists and other technical specialists who chanced upon them sometimes went on to document the experience in professional journals and other publications, often describing it with significant literary flourish. such encounters with atmospheric electricity were profoundly corporeal experiences that gripped and enthralled all five senses in a variety of unexpected ways. in its most dramatic manifestation, electricity literally possessed the body, sending sparks flying from fingertips and stealing away the voluntary control of muscle movement. dangerous and frightening as they were, such experiences were dramatic and visceral demonstrations of the physical power of wild western landscapes, as well as the occult power of nature’s electricity. the weather and landscapes of yellowstone and the rocky mountains were clearly and demonstrably linked with the human body, and electricity was the bridge that merged them. furthermore, the men of science who encountered high-altitude atmospheric electricity perceived their bodies as legitimate instruments for logical inquiry, should opportunity arise. they presented their findings professionally, sometimes publishing on the experience in government reports and scientific journals. rife with metaphor and rhetorical flourish, however, this data was worlds away from that of gannett with his reams of charts and statistics. where mechanical technologies of data-collecting failed, like gannett’s faulty chronometers and barometers-cumlightning rods, the human body, replete with all of its subjective sensory idiosyncrasies, could be a valid substitute. in at least some circumstances, the body was perhaps even better than any mechanical apparatus for studying atmospheric electricity. mechanical instruments for the detection and measurement of atmospheric electricity existed at this time, including an array of various electroscopes and electrometers, and the meteorological and scientific literature of the day typically described such mechanisms at length. these devices were fragile, cumbersome, and often required priming with an electrical charge transferred from an electrophorus or other outside source. if this priming charge dissipated, the apparatus lost efficacy, so many such instruments also relied on drying agents such as calcium chloride to counteract ambient humidity. some also incorporated clockwork or photographic elements for recording purposes.49 such contraptions made field research difficult, if not impossible, and thus quantitative studies of mountain electricity were quite rare in the nineteenth century. ironically, the imponderable fluid that orthodox science struggled to capture or describe could perhaps be best understood through the bodies and senses of rocky mountain explorers. 49 negretti and zambra, a treatise on meteorological instruments: explanatory of their scientific principles, method of construction, and practical utility (london: williams and strahan, 1864), 129-135. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 45 in addition to those from gannett and peale, the following discussion focuses on seven such case studies of encounters with atmospheric electricity in the rocky mountain west, each published in a scientific or technical publication. six of the seven date from the years 1873 to 1884; one temporal outlier dates from 1911 quoting a source from 1909. each describes one or more such events in the rocky mountain territories of colorado or wyoming.50 one account refers specifically to wyoming’s yellowstone region. while making topographical observations on electric peak in 1878, a thunder cloud enveloped cartographer a. d. wilson as one had done to gannett and company several years prior. the electricity made his scalp prickle, his pencil click with a sharp sound, and produced a “strange burst of mountain music.”51 though wilson was not a meteorologist, his encounter was so memorable and noteworthy, that he included in his report. although not explicitly stated in the proceedings, it is very likely that wilson was familiar with the events of the earlier hayden expedition, and may have anticipated the possibility of such an encounter himself. most recorded descriptions of encounters with atmospheric electricity in the rockies occurred just south, however, in neighboring colorado. in an 1873 u.s. geological survey report on mining statistics, mining engineer rossiter raymond recounted the experience of colleague and fellow engineer george s. dwight, on colorado’s gray’s peak, which he compared to studies conducted in europe by m. j. fournot and m. henri de sassure in 1867 and 1868 respectively.52 two years later, geologist fredric m. endlich vividly described his corporeal experiments with atmospheric electricity in colorado’s san juan mountains: “this is an opportunity for studying the progress of storms.” contrary to raymond’s and guillemin’s assertions that such phenomena were of modest frequency, endlich found them to be so frequent and consistent that such experiments could be consistently replicated, ultimately finding these results consistent enough to account for the direction and velocity of wind, time of day, and season.53 within months of the publication of endlich’s article, meteorologist and naturalist j. h. tice presented the findings of a comparative study of atmospheric electrical phenomena to the illinois state horticultural society, declaring i only state what i have seen heard and felt, on more than on occasion…it was not possible to be mistaken, either as to the phenomena or as to the cause of them….cloud formation and digestion of a thunder storm were taking place before my eyes and i could observe the process in all its minutae and details…my nerves were thrilling with an electric current, flowing out at the ends of my erect hair, or from my fingers when i raised my hands…the thunder-cloud was digesting and rapidly increasing in dimensions and density. there could be no mistake. the 50 colorado gained statehood in 1876. wyoming in 1890. 51 a. d. wilson, “a trip through northwestern wyoming,” proceedings of the newport natural history society 2 (july 1884): 27. 52 raymond, 504. 53 endlich, 403-409. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 46 electric charge on the mountain initiated and sustained all these phenomena. it was the cause; they were the sequences [italics in the original].54 for tice, an embodied and phenomenal experience informed his knowledge of the meteorological process of cloud and storm formation. paradoxically, only through a fundamentally qualitative and personal experience, could tice come not only to a place of understanding, but one of certainty. mirroring gannett and peale’s experience on hayden’s 1871 yellowstone expedition, a. d. wilson and f. rhoda, members of the 1877 hayden topographical expedition through colorado, encountered an electrical storm that produced, upon the raising of a hand, the curiously synesthetic effect of a “tickling sound.” noting the eerie clicking of a telescope perched on a tripod, rhoda analogized his own curious sensory phenomenon to its comparable effects on his party’s technical instrumentation. he further noted the failures of these instruments under the influence of the electrical storm: “an attempt was made to take a barometric observation. but no sooner was the barometer held up than it began to hum most alarmingly, and the telescope and tripod was so much affected that the two observers retired a little way down the mountain.” in this instance, the party’s barometer failed to function in its intended capacity, but did convey important information about the lightning storm to the surveyors through the physical phenomenon of sound.55 in 1911, physicist oliver lester prepared a comparative analysis of colorado-based encounters with atmospheric electricity, concluding that “these experiences usually consist of unpleasant buzzing around the head, pulling of the hair, sparks jumping from fingers, etc., all indicating a highly charged state of the body.”56 notably, lester’s most prominent case study came from naturalist enos a. mills, best known as the “father of rocky mountain national park.” singularly amongst these various accounts, mills described pronounced effects of electricity upon the action of his muscles: “i made a clumsy climb of about five hundred feet, my muscles being ‘muscle-bound’ all the time with rigidity from electricity.” mills may or may not have exaggerated the truth in his account, but physicist lester took him seriously at his word, concluding that “the phenomena of static electricity can have very little to do with modern engineering practice…. they have little to do with the constructive side of engineering, but a great deal to do with the destructive side.”57 for lester, environmental electricity was something that could potentially be understood, but never controlled. although most of these documented cases were prepared by naturalists or physical scientists—geographers, geologists, or engineers—some biological scientists, particularly 54 j. h. tice, “meteorology,” transactions of the illinois state horticultural society (chicago: illinois state horticultural society, 1875): 77-8. 55 “singular electrical phenomena,” locomotive engineers journal 11, no. 11 (nov. 1877): 491. 56 oliver c. lester, “atmospheric electricity.” the university of colorado journal of engineering 7 (1911): 92. 57 lester, 93-4. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 47 physiologists, also took a keen interest in the area. dr. charles denison, a specialist in the medical climatology of the rocky mountain west looked to the region’s restorative climatic and geographic properties.58 in his 1880 analysis of the role of environment and weather in the establishment of long-term convalescent care facilities, denison dedicated a full chapter to the subject of atmospheric electricity and ozone. by his assessment, its electrically charged, ozonerich atmosphere contributed to making the rocky mountains an ideal location to recover from pulmonary disease. though contextualized with research based in the united states and europe, he drew heavily on his own embodied experiences based on high-altitude fieldwork in the colorado rockies: “it would seem that, with the increase of tension due to elevation, the positive electricity of the air, so abundant in dry elevated regions, would be constantly nearing the negative electricity of the earth. with no other evidence to prove this than the experience of our nervous systems as we ascend into electrified strata, and the frequency of electrical phenomena there witnessed, i shall incline to the opinion that this is the true state of electric tension of high altitudes, till evidence is produced to the contrary.”59 based on evidence gathered with his own nervous system, denison concluded that the specific environmental mechanism that made mountain environments so notably restorative was “the continued mediumship of the human body between the negative ground and the positive air…[it] is a constant renewal of his vitality.”60 via these seven case studies, a portrait emerges of how scientists, engineers, and doctors interpreted the relationship between climate, electricity, and human body in the rocky mountain west of the 1870s and early 1880s. some, such as endlich and denison, took repeated scientific “readings” with their bodies over an extended period. those who could not do so tended to turn to comparative analyses as an alternative. in fact, each of these examples, save for that of gannett and peale, took a comparative approach to a greater or lesser extent, some looking abroad to the widely-reported studies by fournnet and de sassure, while others compared more regionally. in each instance, atmospheric electricity was depicted as frightening and uncanny, but entirely 58 charles denison, “atmospheric electricity: ozone and winds,” in rocky mountain health resorts (boston: houghton mifflin, 1880): 74-80. many historians have examined the relationship between science, medicine, and environments. on the topic of medical climatology in tropical climates, see gregg mitman, “in search of health: landscape and disease in american environmental history,” environmental history 10, no. 2 (2005): 184-201, and mark carey, “inventing caribbean climates: how science, medicine, and tourism changed tropical weather from deadly to healthy” osiris 26, no. 1 (2011): 129-41. regarding rocky mountain health resorts, see: tom sherlock, colorado's healthcare heritage: a chronology of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries volume one 1800-1899; nancy owen lewis, chasing the cure in new mexico: tuberculosis and the quest for health. 59 denison, 74-5. 60 ibid, 75. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 48 fathomable through the tool of a body controlled by a scientific mind. through corporeal experimentation, natural electricity could be understood and, they hoped, bent to serve human needs and desires through technology, medicine, and tourism. the “child of lightning” the smell of acid accompanied by a peculiar taste of lobster that many mountain surveyors experienced was conjured by a gas that, though known since the time of homer, had only recently been described by science.61 first isolated in 1839 by christian friedrich schönbein, who named it for the greek word ozein meaning "to smell,” in reference to its strong and peculiar “electric odor,” the chemical formula of ozone (o3) was not determined until 1865. laboratory experimentation had established a close relationship between ozone and electricity as the chemical could be derived from common air by passing an electric spark through it, while field research corroborated that the chemical was produced during thundershowers.62 it was this latter source, lightning, that appeared to be essential to organic processes, leading one specialist to conclude that “ozone is a child of the lightning.”63 termed “active oxygen” 64 for its intense oxidizing properties that were believed to “stimulate,” “purify,” and “disinfect” the blood and the flesh, ozone was thought to be congenial to life, its presence integral to human health.65 like the electricity that created it, ozone could be produced synthetically in a laboratory and put to use industrially as, for example, a disinfectant or bleaching agent. contemporary scholars interpreted it as first and foremost a product of nature, however, and, by extension, a healthful and necessary addition to the human body.66 ozone was suspected to affect the pulse, respiration, and circulation in various ways, and “in this respect, it behaves like electricity.” medical science further suggested that the passage of a mild electrical current directly through the body could electrochemically produce these benefits from the inside out, but such a technique was not medically practicable at this time; bodies remained dependent on atmospheric sources of ozone.67 like fournot’s electric countries, certain places seemed to be blessed with an abundance of ozone. chief among these were elevated, thunderstorm-prone regions (oceanic and shoreline 61 homer, the iliad, trans. walter leaf (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1902), 172. 62 “american contributions to science,” united states magazine, 4 (1857), 47. 63 brigham, “ozone,” 260. 64 “american contributions to science,” 47. 65 brigham, “ozone” 260-1. 66 e. andreoll, “ozone: its commercial production and application,” journal of the society of chemical industry 16 (feb 27, 1897), 95. for more on schönbein’s isolation of the chemical, see mordecai b. rubin, “the history of ozone: the schonbein period, 1839-1868” bulletin of the history of chemistry 26, no. 1 (2001): 40-56. robert kohler discusses the development of medical biochemistry as a field in from medical chemistry to biochemistry: the making of a biomedical discipline (new york: cambridge university press, 1982). 67 beard, 464. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 49 environments were also believed to be healthful and ozone-rich, although later science demonstrated the pungent smell of sea air to be not ozone, but rotting seaweed). grimy urban areas were believed to be ozone deficient because as the chemical disinfected and purified putrid matter, it became depleted, losing its power of oxidation: “it dies, that others may live.”68 both medical and popular literature suggested that living in an ozone-deficient environment, such as a busy urban cityscape, would deprive one of exposure to this seemingly essential, life-giving ambient chemical. thus divested, a person would sicken and die. as one sensationalist popular magazine put it: thus is man often where he least expects it, the creature of physical influences, which, unseen, but no less actual, brood on the passing wing of a vivific or a pestiferous air; that slumber in the shadows of the clouds, or crawl like invisible reptiles upon the earth; that drop upon him in the noiseless exaltations of shrubs and trees, and even haunt him, as ministers of life and death, in the very aroma and in the nameless qualities that distinguish dwellings, localities, and countries from one another. we are penetrated through and through with natural laws; and if nature fail for a brief period to furnish around us a due supply of disturbed electric action, of new-wrought and avid oxygen, or of we know not how many other essential elements of vigorous life, we droop, sicken and die; and the "mourners go about the streets" for those who fell ostensibly of rheums, and typhus, and cholera, but really of vast and uncontrollable revulsions in the operations of nature herself.69 neither professional nor popular literature left any doubt that the body’s health was enormously dependent upon the health of its surrounding climate and environment, and electricity was absolutely essential for a vigorous life. scientists and others believed ozone influenced not only the fitness of the corporeal body, but also an individual’s personality and his or her mental and moral hygiene. “who shall say that even ozone does not modify the play of ambition or avarice, of love, of patriotism, or of crime?” speculated one contemporary social critic.70 even a city as a collective whole was vulnerable to the dangers of insufficient levels of sterilizing atmospheric ozone, which was hypothesized to affect everything from activity and enterprise, to the moral, social and aesthetic life of a metropolis’s citizenry. beginning in the latter two decades of the nineteenth century, a discourse emerged that specifically analogized ozone with a variety of desirable, masculine, and energetic qualities, leading to rhetoric of “the ozone of town spirit,”71 “ozone of the national ambition,”72 68 ibid, 464. 69 “american contributions to science,” 48. 70 brigham, 49. 71 george blackstone irving, my town; or community patriotism (chicago: the rogerson press, 1912), 94. 72 mortimer thomson, the divine comedy of patriotism (new york: press of duane printing company, 1900), 153. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 50 and “the ozone of patriotism.”73 atmospheric ozone was nothing short of a vital necessity for a modern, sanitary, civic society, and meteorological science was the means to quantify it. thus, electricity and ozone had become so deeply correlated in the late nineteenth-century mind as to be functionally inseparable in both popular and scientific discourses. in covering the science of medical geography, many scientific publications, including the new york medical journal74 and the popular science monthly,75 correlated and conflated the two concepts, referring generally to “atmospheric electricity and ozone.”76 to be electric was to be ozonated, and vice versa. moreover, these qualities—electrification and ozonation—were interpreted as fundamentally natural climatic processes innate to both the organic environment and the human body. although they could be replicated in the laboratory, they were first and foremost processes and products of nature. viewed through this lens, venturing to yellowstone was not only recreation, personal enrichment, or the nationalistic appropriation of a distant land. it was the application of meteorological science to human health and well-being, touted to have profound benefits in nearly every aspect of life, from physical health and wellness to patriotism and work ethic. in the eyes of a typical middle or upper-class tourist of the time, the re-creative effects of a yellowstone tour would make him a more efficient cog in the capitalist political economy once he returned home. experiencing yellowstone came to be interpreted as a type of modern, scientific medical procedure. nor was it seen as a sham treatment; it was based on cutting-edge medical science that identified specific physiological mechanisms, including ozonation, for the transmission of atmospheric electricity’s healthful effects. modern meteorological and electrical science and the cultural development of yellowstone occurred contemporaneously, from the 1870s through about 1910, with the american sanitarium movement joining them in 1885. the case study of yellowstone was thus an important antecedent and related cultural development to that of “health stations,” “health resorts,” and “sanitariums.” such facilities were intended for the treatment of tuberculosis and other ailments throughout the rocky mountains, and have been the subject of much historical scholarship. many such histories neglect the importance of atmospheric electricity and ozone to the therapeutic process, however, instead focusing on the climatic features of warmth, sunlight, and dryness.77 electricity’s importance must not be overlooked, however, as references to electricity and ozone abound in contemporary medical literature like denison’s.78 73 journal of the twenty-eighth encampment of the grand army of the republic (boston: e. b. stillings & co., 1894), 262. 74 charles denison, “the annual and seasonal climatic maps of the united states,” the new york medical journal 42 (dec. 5, 1885): 629. 75 beard, 456. 76 ibid. 77 daniel freund, american sunshine: diseases of darkness and the quest for natural light (chicago: university of chicago press, 2012), 70. jeremy agnew, medicine in the old west: a history, 1850-1900 (jefferson: mcfarland, 2010), 75. 78 denison, 74-80. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 51 yellowstone park thus offered access to an energetic, invigorating, and healthful climate for those middle-class americans not looking for the directed attention provided at dedicated sanitariums or convalescent facilities. in our national parks, john muir suggested that those weak of constitution ought to “try to climb electric peak when a big, bossy, well-charged thunder-cloud is on it, to try to breathe the ozone set free, and kindly get yourself shaken and shocked,” apparently providing this advice with genuine sincerity.79 in describing the region “as a health resort,” physicians suggested “unimpeachable evidence in favor of montana climate” for the geographic treatment of consumption, malaria, asthma, and rheumatism.80 for these reasons, the american institute of homeopathy held its 1898 national convention in yellowstone, noting that “the season will be delightful for such excursions, and our visiting doctors and their friends will get so full of mountain ozone and patriotic enthusiasm that they will be carried many years beyond the threescore and ten allotted to man.”81 especially in urban areas, mountain imagery dominated popular discussions of ozone’s relationship to the body. once exposed to popular books and articles on the importance of adequate ozone intake, city dwellers now had yet another reason to believe their urban environments dangerous and unhealthful. fortunately for concerned urbanites, electrical appliance manufacturers leaped at the opportunity to fill the gap. because it was “not always convenient for mohammad to go to the mountain,” they developed and marketed a cornucopia of devices and contrivances intended to mimic the effects of ozonated mountain air.82 for those who could not make the pilgrimage to yellowstone or the rocky mountains, home ozonators provided “pure mountain air in your own home.”83 mohammad no longer needed to go to the mountain to maintain his vigor, and the mountain would have to acquire a new meaning if it was to remain relevant in the twentieth century. conclusion one of the great ironies of this story is that ozone was not the health-promoting wonder-chemical that gilded age americans believed it to be. it retained its healthful mystique well into the twentieth century, but as new evidence came to light and cultural principles shuffled, ideas regarding the relationship between body and ozone changed. beginning in the mid-nineteen-teens, perhaps as a result of accelerating industrialization or the development of chemical weapons, the american medical association and other such professional bodies reevaluated their positions on 79 john muir, our national parks (boston: houghton mifflin, 1901), 59. 80 robert e. strathorn, montana and yellowstone national park (kansas city: ramsey, millet, and hudson, 1881), 40-1. 81 d.a. foote, “a plea for western pilgrimage,” medical century 6, no. 3 (march 1, 1898): 87. 82 brigham, 261. 83 “ozone pure airifier,” the literary digest 40, no. 2 (april 16, 1910): 770. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 52 ozone’s effects.84 today, all relevant regulatory or advisory entities, including the environmental protection agency, world health organization, and european union categorize ozone as an atmospheric pollutant, respiratory irritant, and menace to public health.85 americans understood electricity less as part of a morally and physically toxic modern social regime than as an integral component of the climate’s optimal and balanced functioning. american surveyors and explorers further corroborated these theories via their intense and visceral encounters with ambient atmospheric electricity in their rocky mountain fieldwork. these travelers, typically formally trained in the sciences, approached the phenomena as experimenters. although such climatic events occurred somewhat unpredictably, once met, they could be appraised systematically. the rub was that conventional mechanical instruments for studying electricity in the atmosphere were not conducive to the harsh conditions of wildland travel. in practice, however, this “problem” could sometimes be sidestepped through creative use of the human body. subjective and phenomenal sensory information turned out to be a more sensitive and manageable instrument than any manmade apparatus. scientist-explorers disseminated the data gathered with their bodies in scientific publications and professional arenas, and medical experts ultimately reached the conclusion that backcountry travel was a healthful practice specifically because it provided for exposure to invigorating and purifying electricity and ozone. hayden and gannett were not searching for a link between atmospheric electricity and the body when they explored yellowstone. such science was too new and too unconnected to the conventional goals of surveying for it to be an issue relevant to their purposes. in the latter decades of the nineteenth century, however, the cultural and scientific meanings of yellowstone national park, as well as those of atmospheric electricity and ozone, developed concurrently and in tandem, ultimately forming a cultural tautology. yellowstone came to function as a symbol of national and individual strength and power because its climate was electric and ozonated. conversely, ozone signified vitality and purity because it was part and parcel with the ostensibly pristine yellowstone wilderness. the case study presented in this article repositions the geographic context, methods, and conceptual framework of late nineteenth century meteorological science. relocating meteorology within material human bodies in the rocky mountain west reveals that scientific and popular discourses acknowledged and embraced the fundamental and fluid reciprocity between bodies and their environs. positioning the history of meteorology adjacent to and in dialogue with the history of the physical science of electricity further complicates conventional historical narratives. the lens of electrical science suggests that late-nineteenth century scientists and surveyors saw electricity (and, by extension, ozone) as a primary mechanism of action by which climate and landscape influenced and shaped the body. via the mechanisms of atmospheric electricity and 84 edwin o. jordan and a. j. carlson, “ozone: it’s bactericidal, physiologic, and deodorizing action,” journal of the american medical association 61, no. 13 (sept. 27, 1913): 1012. 85 environmental protection agency, “ground level ozone,” march 25, 2015, http://www.epa.gov/air/ozonepollution/ (may 1, 2015). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 53 ozone, the rocky mountain west’s electrical landscapes asserted themselves viscerally upon material bodies in the late nineteenth century, thereby reaffirming the salience of the electrical human organism in defining and interpreting the region’s place based meteorology and medical climatology. ultimately, the concept of the electrical body would persist in both scientific and popular discourses, while its former companion, the “ozone of patriotism,” fell out of usage. corresponding author(s) beibei li, nanjing university of information science and technology, libeibei@nuist.edu.cn weather and the public: a study of weather forecast information in the eastern times jing yu and beibei li introduction in 1856, france established a network of weather stations and set up the first forecasting system. the paris observatory began utilising the data amassed from these stations to generate weather forecasts, which were disseminated to the public via the production and dissemination of weather maps by telegraph.1 in the same period, british meteorologist robert fitzroy was instrumental in the inception of british weather forecasts.2 on 5 september 1860, the british newspaper the times began publishing simple weather forecasts in its evening edition, a practice subsequently adopted by other newspapers. this signified the emergence of the newspaper as a pivotal conduit for the dissemination of meteorological forecasts. the establishment of meteorological services in the united states occurred at a later date than in western europe. in 1873, general albert mier, head of the us army weather reporting service initiated the production of the farmers’ bulletin, which included brief weather forecasts, with the more comprehensive weather and crop bulletin following in 1887.3 the history of weather forecasting in china can be traced back to the establishment of the zikawei observatory in 1872. since its inception, the observatory has provided public services, such as weather forecasts for coastal residents and sailors. initially, it posted a weather map and report each morning and afternoon at the yangjingbang signal tower. by 1882, the zikawei observatory began issuing rudimentary weather forecasts, 1 john l. davis, “weather forecasting and the development of meteorological theory at the paris observatory, 1853–1878,” annals of science 41, no. 4 (1984): 359–82, https://doi.org/10.1080/00033798400200311. 2 burton, jim. “robert fitzroy and the early history of the meteorological office.” the british journal for the history of science 19, no. 2 (1986): 147–76. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007087400022949. 3 ćurić, m., spiridonov, v. (2023). establishment of weather forecast services. in: history of meteorology. springer, cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-45032-7_7 mailto:libeibei@nuist.edu.cn history of meteorology 12 (2025) 2 which were supplied to major newspapers in shanghai.4 leveraging the geographical advantage of the zikawei observatory, newspapers in shanghai became the earliest in china to publish weather forecasts, serving as a crucial medium for disseminating meteorological information. since the mid-nineteenth century, the dissemination of western meteorological knowledge in china has grown in both depth and breadth.5 during both the late qing dynasty (1840-1911) and the republic of china period (1912-1949), the influence of western meteorological science on china was profound, playing a pivotal role in promoting the early development of china’s meteorological industry and the spread of meteorological knowledge. the establishment of church printing institutions, such as the morrison press and the malacca anglo-chinese college press both in 1807, led to a surge in the translation of western meteorological textbooks, monographs, and journals. at this time, china also began to take the initiative to disseminate western meteorological knowledge through publications, although the content and quantity remained limited. establishing schools and offering meteorology courses became an important avenue for spreading western meteorological knowledge during the late qing dynasty.6 during the self-strengthening movement (18611895), which was also known as the western affairs movement, basic western meteorological knowledge was introduced in schools, and by the late qing new policies period (1901-1911), meteorology courses closely related to agriculture were included in primary education.7 weather forecasts themselves contain essential meteorological knowledge and serve as a significant driver for transforming public meteorological awareness. studying weather forecast information in newspapers is not only crucial for understanding the weather forecast services provided by meteorological observatories and how these have varied over time and space, but also for gauging public attitudes and cognition regarding meteorological knowledge. existing research primarily focuses on the observational work of modern chinese meteorological observatories,8 with limited attention given to their weather forecast services. previous studies have noted that, beginning in 1915 the zikawei observatory began providing weather forecast information to shen bao (上海《申报》) a former british owned chinese language newspaper known in english as shanghai news. this prior scholarship proposed the newspaper’s central role in introducing meteorological knowledge to chinese 4 yan, linshan, and ma, zongliang. “establishment and development of the zikawei observatory (1872 1950).” china historical materials of science and technology 5, no. 2 (1984): 65-72.; tian, guozhu. the zikawei observatory in shanghai. (shanghai zikawei library printing house,1918). 5 zhang, gaizhen, and liu, bo. “the spread of western meteorological science and technology in china and its influence during the period of eastward graduation of western learning.” journal of meteorology 67, no. 4 (2022): 643-648. 6 zhang, yan. “probe into the policy about developing the modern education of the qing government during the westernization movement.” lanzhou academic journal 41, no. 7 (2010): 196-199. 7 zhao, chaofeng. “new policy and modernisation of chinese agriculture in the late qing dynasty.” journal of capital normal university (social science edition) 28, no.1 (2001): 12-17.; chen shaofang. “on educational legislation in the late qing dynasty.” journal of jinan (philosophy and social sciences) 19, no. 2 (1997): 87-96. 8 yan linsan. “xujiahui observatory.” navigation 15, no. 1 (1993): 48; xu yafang. “xujiahui observatory”. cultural heritage of cities 1, no. 00 (2008): 15-17; liu hua. “fify-year scientific research on zi-ka-wei observatory.” cultural heritage of cities 7, no. 2, (2014): 133-139; shen sirui. “french origin of zi-ka-wei observatory.” cultural heritage of cities 9, no. 2 (2016): 93-108; wu yan. “observatory of zi-ka-wei and modern meteorological station network founded in china studies in the china.” studies in the history of natural sciences 32.no. 2 (2013): 165-175; shen bingbing,zhang jing,yan huiling,et al. “a study on the historical evolution and contribution of qingdao observatory (1898-1949).” advances in meteorological science and technology 6, no. 4 (2016): 44-50; xie mingen, he wennong, “historical sketch of the creation of modern meteorological stations in yunnan.” advances in meteorological science and technology 9, no. 5 (2019): 63-67; song wenjuan, li lixin, han qiguang. “development of public meteorological services at the hong kong observatory.” advances in meteorological science and technology 7, no. 1 (2017): 227-237. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 3 citizens, though the forecasts did not thoroughly change the public’s understanding of meteorology. the public still adhered to traditional customs, such as “praying for rain” and “banning the slaughter of livestock”.9 beginning in 1905, shibao or the eastern times (上海 《时报》) of shanghai had been the first chinese-language newspaper to publish weather forecasts, thereby promoting the dissemination of meteorological knowledge to mandarin readers in china. while previous research has examined distinctive news,10 content reforms,11 and newspaper personnel12 of the eastern times of shanghai, specialized studies on its weather information remain scarce. academic research has predominantly focused on the observational work and contributions of modern chinese meteorological observatories, often concentrating on a single newspaper with relatively stable weather information. this paper aims to integrate and analyse the weather information content from two distinct time periods of the eastern times’ history, examining changes and trends in weather forecast information, and comparing them with contemporary english-language newspapers. this work is crucial in helping to elucidate the process of public cognition and acceptance of western meteorological knowledge in modern china. the pioneer of chinese newspaper weather forecasts in 1905, the chinese-language newspaper the eastern times of shanghai began publishing weather forecasts, marking it as the first chinese newspaper to do so. the eastern times was one of three major newspapers in shanghai during the late qing dynasty and the republic of china period, the other two shen bao and xinwen bao (《新闻报》) did not publish weather forecasts until august 1915, and march 1923, respectively. therefore, the eastern times provided a crucial platform for chinese people to independently learn about western meteorological knowledge. according to distribution records, the eastern times was not only widely circulated in shanghai but also reached 54 cities across jiangsu, hubei, zhejiang, and anhui provinces, as well as being distributed in 13 overseas cities, including major centres in japan, singapore, myanmar, the united states, and the united kingdom. 9 wang hao. “xujiahui observatory and the transformation of meteorological concepts in chinese society-centred on the declaration (1875-1935).” jinan history 19, no. 1 (2020): 169-183. 10 yu yu. “chen jinghan’s news thoughts and influences: an investigation of shanghai shibao.” journalism research 40, no. 3 (2020): 71-83; wang baoping. “journalist meet the time: a discussion focused on jin xiongbai’s experience in the eastern times (1926-1929).” journalism & communication 25, no. 1 (2018): 84-109; liu yuanzheng. “the public opinion trend of the sino-japanese joint han ye ping case in the early years of the republic of china-a study centred on shen pao and eastern time.” journal of hubei university（philosophy and social science）44, no. 6 (2017): 83-91; yu yu,yu fenxia. “an analysis of the content and style of chen leng’s current commentary--eastern times in shanghai as an example.” journal of zhejiang university of media and communications 24, no. 3 (2017): 40-48; guo feng. “eastern times1904-1914 tibetrelated reports and national identity study.” journal of news research 9, no. 10 (2018): 42-43. 11 shao l. “from ‘reference’ to ‘expression’: the yellow journalism in huang bohui’s eastern times and shanghai’s urbanization.” chinese journal of journalism & communication 35, no. 4 (2013): 140-149; yu fenxia,yu yu. “an analysis of the translated novels of eastern times in the late qing dynasty.” journal of ming-qing fiction studies 27, no. 3 (2021): 252-269; yu yu. “the early exploration and successful practice of chinese newspaper commentaries: a study of commentaries of current affairs in the shanghai shibao.” journalism bimonthly 37, no. 2 (2017): 30-37; yu yu. “from genre to subject: an analysis on the practice transformation and effect of shibao’s news operation.” journal of nanchang university (humanities and social sciences) 48, no. 4 (2017): 83-90; zhang zhenting, zhang huina. “party people’s newspaper, literati newspaper, businessman’s newspaper:a preliminary study of the metamorphosis of eastern times in shanghai and its causes”. academic exchange 31, no. 1 (2015): 191-196; zhang zhenting,yin ting. first column in newspapers in china. journal of zhengzhou university (philosophy and social sciences edition) 46, no.3 (2013): 173-176; yao fushen. “eastern times’ vice-publication reform in the may fourth period.” journalism & communication 14, no.4 (1992): 146-154; shao, lu. 2013.the transformation of eastern times in the process of urbanisation (1921-1939). fudan university, phd dissertation. 12 yu yu. “chen jinghan’s news thoughts and influences: an investigation of shanghai shibao.” journalism research, no. 3 (2020): 71-83; yuan yi-qin. “huang bohui and eastern times.” journalism research 40, no. 2 (1995): 42-44; wu xiang. “when did gogongzhen become the chief editor--republican newspaper man transformation from the examination of gogongzhen’s eastern times’ news activities.” youth journalist 20, no. 13 (2013): 79-82. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 4 the eastern times was distributed early in the morning in shanghai, ensuring that readers in the city could receive the paper on the same day. also, “[t]hanks to the early morning train service connecting shanghai and suzhou, residents in suzhou could purchase the latest issue each morning.”13 consequently, readers in both shanghai and suzhou had access to the day’s weather forecast ahead of time via the pages of the eastern times. from 1907, when the eastern times temporarily ceased reporting weather forecasts until its resumption in 1926, china underwent nearly two decades of profound social transformation. during this period, the content included in chinese weather forecasts also evolved, though the specific reasons for these changes remain unclear. according to our research,14 more chinese and english-language newspapers began including weather forecasts in the 1920s, with the number of weather forecasts reaching a peak in the 1930s. initially, the primary audience for the eastern times’ weather forecasts was the intellectual community. during the first period (1905-1907), di chuqing, the founder of the eastern times, focused on literary and educational circles, aiming to make the newspaper indispensable for intellectuals of the period.15 later, management of the eastern times was transferred to his younger brother dibao feng, and in 1921, due to financial difficulties, the newspaper was taken over by huang bohui.16 under bohui’s management from 1926 to 1929, the eastern times underwent significant reforms, including the addition of sports and social news, which broadened its appeal to the general public.17 this transformation contributed to the popularization of the eastern times and extended the reach of its weather forecasts to a wider audience. differences and similarities between the two periods of weather forecasts in the eastern times unlike the continuous weather forecast reporting by chinese-language newspapers such as shen bao and xinwen bao, the eastern times’ weather forecasts were only published during two distinct periods: 1905-1907 and 1926-1929. during these periods, the format and content of the weather forecasts underwent significant transformations. by comparing the weather forecast information from these two periods, we can trace the evolution of public understanding of meteorological knowledge through newspaper media in modern china, summarize the impact of weather forecasts on the public, gain deeper insights into the dissemination of weather forecast knowledge among the public, and further examine the chinese public’s attitude and level of understanding of western meteorological knowledge. the content of the eastern times’ weather forecasts in both periods shares three primary similarities. first, in both periods, coverage included meteorological forecasts and information related to meteorological hazards. the forecasts in both periods described key meteorological elements such as weather conditions, wind, clouds, and precipitation. across both periods typhoons were the most frequently mentioned phenomena in the meteorological disaster warnings issued. secondly, both periods of the eastern times’ weather forecasts 13 bao tianxiao. memoirs of kushi studio. (2008, encyclopedia of china publishing house). 14 we have analyzed the electronic newspapers from the late qing dynasty and the republic of china, which are included in the national newspaper index database and the “shenbao” database. 15 bao tianxiao. memoirs of kushi studio, 13. 16 chen ting. “necessity and chance: a study of the reasons for eastern times’ change of ownership news tribune.” news tribune 10, no.3 (2019): 107-110. 17 joan judge. print and politics: eastern times and the culture of reform in late qing china. (2015, guangxi normal university press); yu yu. a study of news business change at eastern times in shanghai. (2018, people’s publishing house). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 5 encompass domestic and international countries and regions. coverage included meteorological conditions within the yangtze river valley, zhili, shandong, hong kong and taiwan, in addition to other pivotal coastal locations. furthermore, it incorporated weather patterns in neighbouring countries and regions, including japan, korea, manila and siberia. thirdly, during both periods the zikawei observatory provided the meteorological data for the eastern times’ weather forecasts.18 on the first day of the initial period in 1905, the “special announcement” section stated that the zikawei observatory was the source of the meteorological forecasts: we are honoured by the zikawei observatory’s generous offer to provide daily climate charts, which will significantly contribute to our original mission. since yesterday, the weather forecast has been included alongside the shixian calendar《时宪书》, presenting current-day events as reported by the zikawei observatory and made available to readers.19 the “daily measured climate tables” constituted the daily weather reports from the zikawei observatory. while in the second period from 1926, the “weather reports” section clearly indicated the source with the heading “weather forecast by the zikawei observatory at 4:30 p.m.” the discrepancies between the content of the eastern times’ weather forecasts in the two periods can be attributed to six key factors. notably, the two periods of weather forecasting in the eastern times are designated by different names. in the initial period, the weather forecast section was titled “weather forecast” and included sub-headings for “weather” and “wind”. starting from 13 november 1906, the “wind” sub-heading was discontinued, and its content was integrated into the “weather” column. by contrast, the second period presented the weather information in a single column titled “weather report”, without any sub-headings. secondly, the two periods of the eastern times’ weather forecasts were positioned in different page locations in the newspaper. in the initial period, the meteorological forecast was prominently featured on the front page, interspersed with advertisements related to the education sector. during the second period, the weather forecast appeared irregularly, positioned on lower portions of the fifth, sixth, and seventh pages, intermingled with content pertaining to sports and social affairs. thirdly, the two periods of the eastern times’ weather forecasts cover distinct time periods. in the initial period, the forecasts focus on the prevailing meteorological conditions and relevant hazard warnings for the current day. by contrast, the subsequent period provides a detailed review of the preceding two days, along with a comparative analysis of the current day’s weather patterns relative to those of the previous year. moreover, it incorporates the aforementioned elements related to the current day’s weather forecast and hazard warnings. fourthly, the two periods of the eastern times weather forecasts encompass distinct meteorological elements. in the initial period, the forecasts provided primarily qualitative descriptions of meteorological conditions, focusing on elements such as weather, wind, 18 zhu, marlon. “media, typhoons, and contests over meteorological sovereignty in nineteenth-century east asia.” history of meteorology 9, (2020). 19 “special confession of the house”. eastern times. march 6, 1905. translated from the original chinese by the author: “今 承徐家汇天文台，慨然允以每日所测气候表见赠，裨得玉成本馆初意。自昨日起添登天气预报一门，与时宪书并列 ，又天气预报均系言本日之事，以便阅者” the shixian calendar was compiled by xu guangqi and his colleagues during the late ming dynasty, utilizing the western new method. in the first year of the shunzhi reign (1644), it was presented to the qing court by the german missionary johann adam schall von bell. prince regent dorgon officially designated it as the “shixian calendar” and decreed its promulgation. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 6 precipitation, clouds, and other phenomena. wind direction is indicated using cardinal points, such as “south-west wind.” on occasion, temperature and barometric pressure are reported qualitatively; for example, temperature is described as either ‘cold’ or ‘hot,’ and fluctuations in thermometer and barometer readings are occasionally mentioned, though specific values are not provided. by contrast, the second period incorporates both qualitative and quantitative descriptions of meteorological elements. in this later period, detailed coverage of weather, including wind, rain, clouds, temperature, and barometric pressure was provided. wind direction was specified using sixteen compass points, such as “south-south-east wind.” while temperature was reported with specific high and low values, indicating maximum and minimum readings. barometric pressure was described in terms of the movement of high and low-pressure centres. in addition, the two periods of the eastern times’ weather forecasts covered different geographical ranges. the initial period primarily focuses on the city of shanghai and other urban centres along the yangtze river. while by contrast, in the second period the content’s coverage was broadened to encompass other regions of china, including the north, northeast, and central areas. a further distinction can be observed in the methods of accessing information from the zikawei observatory during the two periods of the eastern times’ weather forecasts. in the initial period, meteorological reports were sourced exclusively from the zikawei observatory. by contrast, during the second period a combination of on-site journalistic research and telephone interviews with the zikawei observatory were used to gather weather forecast data.20 the two periods of weather forecasts in the eastern times exhibit notable differences, attributable to the distinct operational approaches adopted by the newspaper’s editors and journalists during each time period. these senior operators at the eastern times played a pivotal role in the format of the weather forecasts disseminated, highlighting the significance of their business philosophy in shaping this piece of science communication. established by political reformists such as kang youwei and liang qichao, the eastern times initially comprised personnel who were primarily disciples of kang youwei and members of the new school of reformers. additionally, the newspaper’s founder, di chuqing, and its editor, lei fen, both studied in japan.21 they belonged to a group of open-minded and forward-thinking intellectuals, who while in japan focused on acquiring knowledge of japan’s modern systems. although they had some familiarity with western meteorological concepts introduced to them via japan, it was impractical for them to divert their primary objective of systemic reform to focus on meteorology. consequently, their understanding of western meteorology remained limited. upon receiving meteorological data from the zikawei observatory, they curated the information and provided qualitative assessments. their approach was profoundly influenced by traditional chinese observational practices, making it challenging for them to discard the accumulated knowledge gained through prolonged experience of the weather. the astronomical bureau’s daily meteorological observations primarily focused on elements such as sunshine, rain, wind, and clouds.22 therefore, the meteorological elements reported in the first period of the eastern times coverage closely resembled those of ancient chinese meteorological observations. in contrast, the second period was overseen by huang bohui, for whom the zikawei observatory served as a more 20 gu zhizhong, a newspaper man’s career-an autobiography of a journalist. (1987, jiangsu classics publishing house). 21 yu yu. a study of news business change at eastern times in shanghai. 22 wang ting, lv lingfeng, chu wenjuan, “investigation of the meteorological work in astronomical bureau during qing dynasty.” the chinese journal for the history of science and technology 39, no. 1 (2018): 35-47. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 7 important source of information.23 weather forecasts during this period were obtained through a combination of field visits and telephone interviews conducted by reporters, resulting in more detailed and accurate forecasts. in addition, it is related to the systematic introduction of western meteorological knowledge into china by chinese students majoring in meteorology overseas, who introduced this knowledge after they completed their studies and returned home to china.24 when overseas meteorology students, such as jiang bingran and zhu kezhen, completed their studies and returned to china, they carried out meteorological research, established meteorological societies, trained new meteorological talent, advocated for the addition of meteorological stations, and actively promoted the construction of china’s meteorological undertakings. intertwining meteorological knowledge with traditional concepts continuous attention to meteorological disasters the eastern times was dedicated to monitoring and reporting on disaster-related weather conditions globally. its meteorological coverage included typhoons, rainstorms, hailstorms, and other forms of extreme weather, with a particular emphasis on their impacts on global communities. shanghai is situated in a coastal region prone to frequent typhoons and is vulnerable to significant damage and disruption to its infrastructure, particularly in maritime shipping and trade. consequently, it was of paramount importance to disseminate timely and accurate typhoon warnings to the residents of the city. the zikawei observatory played a crucial role in issuing these warnings, as evidenced in the weather forecast sections during both periods of reporting in the eastern times. prior to the inclusion of meteorological forecasts, the eastern times demonstrated a keen awareness of and responsiveness to extreme weather events both domestically and internationally. this was exemplified by its publication in july 1904 of detailed reports on the extensive damage caused by windstorms in fujian province in may of that year: the province of fujian has recently experienced a series of adverse weather conditions, including a lack of wind and an epidemic, which have collectively been classified as a disaster. in may, the region experienced a period of no wind and hurricane-force winds, followed by a sudden gale on the 18th of the same month. this subsequent event has the potential to be particularly violent and destructive, with reports indicating that it lasted for approximately 24 hours. on the 23rd, the winds reached such intensity that they caused damage to the rocks and sands and destroyed houses.25 between 1907 and 1926, during the interruption of weather forecast services, several reports and forecasts were issued concerning the potential for catastrophic weather conditions. these reports provided detailed information on the timing and location of such events, as well as their potential impacts on shanghai. on 18 august 1908, the eastern times initiated coverage of the projected trajectory of an impending typhoon: the zikawei observatory issued a forecast yesterday afternoon at five o’clock, predicting the advent of clouds and a storm that had travelled to the tongyong island area. the wind force was observed to be slightly to the northeast, indicating its imminent movement away from shanghai. a storm tide rainstorm is expected to reach shanghai from the mouth of the 23 gu zhizhong, a newspaper man’s career-an autobiography of a journalist. 24 liu xiao-jun. institutionalization of meteorological service in the period of the republic of china” studies in dialectics of nature 30, no.8 (2014): 100-105. 25 “news from the provinces”. eastern times. july 19, 1904. translated from the original chinese by the author： “福建 风 疫为灾 闽中五月向无风飓，而本年五月十八日忽起大风，势极猛烈，历一昼夜始息。迨至二十三日又复，狂风怒 吼，走石飞沙，早稻均遭损坏，此次拔木毁屋尤不计其数日” history of meteorology 12 (2025) 8 yangtze river to the taiwan strait. this will coincide with a period of intense rainfall and high winds, which will spread to the lower yangtze river basin.26 two days later, on 20 august, it was reported that: yesterday afternoon at 5 o’clock, the zikawei observatory issued a forecast predicting the gradual spread of clouds and gales in sichuan, the yangtze river south of the area, and the chinese seaside. meanwhile, the weather in shanghai is expected to remain clear.27 the eastern times acknowledged the significance of the typhoon warnings and had been monitoring the typhoon, reflecting the public’s demand and the crucial role of their weather forecasts. in its coverage of another anomalous precipitation event in july 1923, the eastern times stated: the north-china herald has reported that the zikawei observatory has observed high precipitation levels in recent years. this trend is attributed to the influence of regional air pressure patterns in central and northern china during the latter half of june, which increases the likelihood of heavy rainfall. notably, this year’s precipitation, which was relatively limited in june, shifted predominantly to july. this shift aligns with observed rainfall patterns over recent years. despite recent advances in scientific understanding, significant uncertainty remains in accurately predicting meteorological phenomena such as air pressure fluctuations. specifically, while the formation and initial development of cyclones can be predicted with some certainty, the exact date of dissipation remains uncertain. consequently, it is not possible to determine with certainty when the heavy rainfall will cease, despite the advanced capabilities of meteorological equipment in europe and the united states. according to the zikawei observatory, however, heavy rainfall in china is expected to subside within six days, with clear skies anticipated tomorrow and the following day.28 by addressing advancements in meteorological technology in europe and the united states, and in highlighting the lack of a definitive method for forecasting typhoons due to fluctuations in barometric pressure, the newspapers publishers’ demonstrated an advanced understanding of meteorological science and technology, which exceeded that of the general public at the time. adapting to the needs of chinese readers the differences in weather forecast information in the eastern times in the two periods analysed demonstrate that the public’s cognition of western meteorology was improving, and that in general (at least among the readership) understanding of meteorological data and the weather conditions in other regions across china was also growing. by comparing the two periods of weather forecasts in the eastern times with english-language newspapers circulated in shanghai during the same period, the cognitive 26 “news from this town”. eastern times. august 18, 1905. translated from the original chinese by the author： “徐家汇天 文台昨日午后五下钟预报云，暴风已行至通永岛一带，风势稍向东北方向前进，相离上海甚近。长江口与台湾海峡 之间，当有风潮暴雨，大约风雨行至上海或更剧烈，且须蔓延至长江下游流域一带云” 27 “honbu news”. eastern times. august 20, 1905. translated from the original chinese by the author： “徐家汇天文台昨 日午后五点钟预报云，大风将逐渐散布于四川，长江南方一带，中国海滨当续发气候，惟上海则气候晴朗” 28 “published by the xujiahui observatory. comparison of rainfall in recent years”. eastern times. july 11, 1923. translated from the original chinese by the author：“字林报云，徐家汇天文台报告，近年雨水之多，全国空气变压之作用，中国 中部及北部每年六月下半月必有一度之多雨。今年之多雨，则因六月雨并不多，故移至七月而沛然大下，可以历年 雨量为证…近年来科学虽昌明，但于气象学之预测空气变压之活动，尚不能有确切之把握。空气变压，即是旋风 （cyclone），其何日起与何日散，只能预测将起，而不能预测何日散。故如今之大雨，究何日可了，亦不能定， 即在欧美气象测察设备较周，亦无把握也。兹据徐家汇天文台长法人之言，中国大雨连六日后必可放晴或消停，大 约明后日可有晴之望云。” history of meteorology 12 (2025) 9 differences in weather forecasts between the chinese public and the expatriate businessmen doing business in shanghai are highlighted. it turn, this helps us better understand the ongoing cognitive changes occurring with regards to the chinese public’s understanding of weather forecasts. western, english-language newspapers published in shanghai were the first to report weather information and provided more detailed and informative content compared to their chinese-language counterparts. for instance, the english-language north-china herald commenced reporting weather forecasts from the zikawei observatory in 1895 and continued to do so until 1949. while comparable chinese language newspapers, the china press and the shanghai times began publishing weather forecasts respectively on 23 august 1911, and 23 january 1925, both were again provided by the zikawei observatory. the north-china herald was established in shanghai on 3 august 1850, by british businessman henry shearman (xi’anmen) and was intended to serve the interests of british businessmen in china.29 given that its primary audience was the expatriate community, weather forecasts were of significant interest due to the importance of accurate sea conditions for shipping. consequently, the north-china herald disseminated meteorological forecasts from the zikawei observatory to benefit british retailers and expatriates in china. in addition to reporting the current day’s weather forecast, the newspaper also reviewed the weather conditions of the previous two days, including the path of highand low-pressure centres, qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the winds, and the area’s cloudy and sunny conditions. the meteorological data provided by the zikawei observatory—such as air pressure and its fluctuations, temperature and its variations, wind strength and direction, cloud cover, and precipitation—were presented in a direct and unadulterated manner. the initial iterations of weather forecasts published by the north-china herald and the eastern times exhibited notable discrepancies, particularly in the level of detail and technical terminology used. these differences were primarily attributed to the simplicity of the eastern times’ reporting style and its readership’s limited familiarity with western meteorological terminology, which often resulted in simplified descriptions of complex weather phenomena. during the early period, the eastern times focused exclusively on daily weather forecasts, with particular emphasis on wind conditions. take for example, the weather forecast published by the north-china herald on 8 august 1905, which was presented as follows: the typhoon signalled yesterday afternoon, passed this morning a little to the s.-ward of naha; it will progress over the eastern sea, inclining to n.n.w…according to the last observation, the typhoon seems to be to the n.e. of formosa, moving w.n.w.30 error! reference source not found. the north-china herald initially reviewed the typhoon’s projected trajectory in the afternoon of the previous day, this was followed by a detailed examination of the typhoon’s subsequent path and a comprehensive forecast of its future activities. in contrast, the eastern times merely noted “windy conditions on the north and south coasts.”31 the meteorological description was inadequate, failing to even specify that the weather event itself was a typhoon. the reported information was simplistic and vague, suggesting that the chinese intellectuals editing the eastern times lacked a foundational understanding of western meteorological science. as a result, despite their awareness of the weather conditions, the 29 liu chenchen. “characteristics of the north-china daily news.” youth journalist 27. no. 32 (2020): 101-102. 30 north china daily news, august 8,1905. 31 “weather forecast”. eastern times. 8 august 1905. translated from the original chinese by the author “南北海滨有风。” history of meteorology 12 (2025) 10 editors were unable to furnish accurate descriptions thereof. from 16 may 1905, the editors of the eastern times were supposed to have initiated monsoon-related reports, which identified the distinctive characteristics of the monsoon and distinguished them from the more general concept of ‘wind’. this date is later than the commencement of monsoon reports in the north-china herald. in the translation process, the french term for monsoon, “mousson,” was inaccurately rendered as “mousson wind,” which failed to fully capture the precise meaning of the english word “monsoon” for their anglophone readership. at this time, two translators with experience in the united states were employed at the newspaper’s office. however, the imprecise translation of western meteorological terms reflected, to some extent, the incomplete understanding of western meteorological knowledge among intellectuals working at the newspaper. consequently, readers who were also of the same intellectual class could only gain limited insight into western meteorology through the eastern times’ coverage. the initial weather forecasts indicated that while some intellectuals had limited exposure to, and understanding of, western meteorology, their grasp of the subject remained superficial. therefore, it is reasonable to infer that the general public’s understanding of western meteorological knowledge was similarly limited. during the later period from 1926-1929, the weather report section of the eastern times is comparable to the content in the north-china herald. it provided quantitative descriptions of temperature values and changes over the previous two days, including daily highs and lows, along with qualitative assessments of other meteorological data such as windspeed and humidity. this comprehensive coverage offers a more accurate representation of the weather data provided by the zikawei observatory. for example, on 2 july 1926, the north-china herald published the following weather report: the temperature near the cathedral, shanghai, for 24 hours ending 7p.m. yesterday min. 72.4 max. 80.5 same date, 1925 min. 71.8 max. 88.0 rainfall trace. state on the morning of the 30th: high pressures over the pacific ocean. low area crossing nippon east-north-eastward. summer monsoon along the china coast. fine weather in the north: rainy and foggy in our valley, improving in the afternoon. overcast skies in the south. state on the morning of the 1st: overcast weather with some mist. normal pressure. southsouth-easterly breezes. probabilities, 4.30 p.m. yesterday: cloudy weather with local mist, some thunder in the valley. variable winds in the north and over the yellow sea. summer monsoon south of the saddles. siccawei [sic] observatory.32 the weather forecast included in the eastern times on the same day closely mirrored that of the north-china herald: the zikawei observatory forecasts at 4.30p.m. on the first day of the month a cloudy sky with fog and thunder in many places over the yangtze river basin. the yellow sea and its northern part, the wind is not directional, south of ma’an island there are summer winds, one day at 3p.m. before the 24-hour period, the minimum temperature in this port 69.4, the maximum 84.4, the maximum temperature in the city. four, the highest 84.8, the same day last year, a minimum of seven. last year on the same day, the lowest 70.4, the highest 81.8. the same day last year, the minimum was 70.4 and the maximum 81.5. on another day the sky was cloudy and foggy, and the pressure was as usual, with a slight south-south-easterly wind. on the 30th of last month, there was high pressure in the pacific ocean, low pressure through honshu, japan, and east-northeast direction, along the coast of china with summer 32 north china daily news, 2 july 1926. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 11 winds, the sky was clear in the north, the yangtze river basin rain and fog, the weather turned good in the afternoon, the south was cloudy.33 in this later phase, the eastern times was no longer exclusively directed towards the intelligentsia; it now also targeted the general public, particularly those residing in coastal areas and engaged in maritime activities. it provided weather-related data and information, thereby facilitating the dissemination of meteorological forecasting knowledge. by promoting western meteorological concepts more widely in china, it enhanced public awareness of weather forecasts. the dissemination of meteorological forecasts in western countries preceded that in china. consequently, western immigrants in china had earlier exposure to such forecasts and were therefore able to attain a deeper understanding of them compared to the chinese public. initially, the eastern times employed rudimentary translations of meteorological and scientific terminology in its reporting. however, the content of weather forecasts was gradually enhanced during the two time periods analysed. the forecasts evolved from basic meteorological data to incorporate more sophisticated scientific knowledge and insights. this progression reflected the growing sophistication of the chinese public’s comprehension of western meteorological concepts. over time, the weather forecasts underwent a gradual process of enrichment, evolving from simple weather information to encompass comprehensive scientific knowledge and data, thereby reflecting the deepening of the chinese public’s understanding of western meteorological knowledge. the influence of traditional concepts the meteorological section of the eastern times from 6 march 1905 exemplifies the utilization of scientific knowledge by progressive reformists to challenge traditional chinese beliefs and practices. the rationale behind the eastern times’ coverage of meteorological forecasts can be attributed to the newspaper’s founders’ distinctive political stance. they perceived the application of scientific principles as a means to transform the traditional, regressive mindset of the chinese populace. consequently, the dissemination of meteorological information became an integral component of this mission. “from its inception in 1904, the primary objective of the newspaper group associated with eastern times was to dismantle and diminish concentrated authority through constitutional reform”.34 in its formative years, the eastern times served as a platform for reformists who sought to transform society through the principle of “science to save the country.” they advocated that the introduction of scientific knowledge and innovations could challenge entrenched beliefs and practices. on the inaugural day of weather forecast reporting, the newspaper emphasized under the heading “our special confession” that the purpose of disseminating such information was to promote scientific literacy. everyone will surely make comparisons, and only then can they know how to make choices. therefore, if one wants to rid people of their superstitions, one must first reveal the real principles. our establishment has always had this intention. thus, it is planned that this year, the almanac and the weather forecast will be jointly published in the section of the forecast, so that people can understand for themselves which is more useful between superstition and 33 “weather report”. eastern times. july 2, 1926. translated from the original chinese by the author:“徐家汇天文台一日下 午四时半气候预测，长江流域天际多云，降雾，多处有雷。黄海及其北部，风无定向，马鞍岛以南有夏季风，一日 下午三时前二十四小时内，本埠气温最低六九.四，最高八四.八，去年同日，最低七〇.四，最高八一.五。又一日天 阴而雾，气压如常，微有东南南风。上月三十日，太平洋有高气压，低压经日本本州而东东北向，沿中国海岸有夏 季风，北方天晴，长江流域雨而降雾、下午天气转佳、南方阴霾。” 34 joan judge. print and politics: eastern times and the culture of reform in late qing china. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 12 the real principles…starting from tomorrow, the weather chart indicating wind, rain, cold and heat will be added beneath the shixian calendar for the convenience of the readers.35 thus, for comparative purposes the meteorological forecast and the shixian calendar were positioned respectively on the left and right sides of the newspaper header. the shixian calendar, originally known simply as the calendar, was renamed to avoid the taboo associated with emperor qianlong’s name. it enjoyed widespread popularity and had a significant influence on people’s daily lives. in practice, the general civil calendar served as a guide for many people, who tended to adhere to it in order to ensure good fortune and to avoid misfortune. additionally, it is used to record various events and traditions, including visits with friends and relatives, interactions with neighbours, borrowing and lending, weather patterns, family celebrations, and other significant occasions.36 the new school of thought, which utilized meteorological forecasts to challenge the influence of the calendar on perceived “good and bad luck,” acknowledged the scientific nature of these forecasts and their potential to transform national perspectives. the integration of meteorological instruments—such as wind and rain gauges and thermometers—into the shixian calendar exemplified the scientific rigor of these tools and reflected the growing recognition of their utility among intellectuals at the time. in the early days of the eastern times, as the russo-japanese war was nearing its conclusion, the prevailing weather conditions in zhili were documented thus on 19 june 1904, in the ‘tianjin’ section of the ‘news from the provinces’ on the third page: tianjin back to the guest cloud, this year’s spring straight province rain in time, grain prices fell, but by april since the hailstorms repeatedly, good rain is very rare. recently, the yellow winds, drought has been shaped, like gengzi april and may weather, think because of japanrussia war is urgent, so the wind and clouds also for the change of colour also.37 in the context of the russo-japanese war, the eastern times attributed meteorological phenomena such as sandstorms and droughts in zhili to the ongoing conflict. furthermore, the newspaper drew parallels between these unusual weather patterns and those observed during the eight-power allied forces’ invasion of china in the gengzi year (1900). the idea that the war resulted in anomalous meteorological occurrences reflects the prevailing belief among the chinese intellectuals who were editors of the eastern times that conflicts could influence weather patterns, a view constrained by conventional wisdom. the practice of petitioning for precipitation and prohibiting the slaughter of animals was a recurrent phenomenon from the inception of the eastern times until its cessation of publication in 1939. the eastern times documented over one hundred instances of such petitions, often prompted by the effects of significant droughts. for example: on the 10th, the central news agency in hangzhou reported that the three-day slaughter ban had been implemented. this prompted the gentry and other members of the local elite to once again ascend mount jade emperor to pray for rain. since the 9th, the gentry of hangzhou 35 “special confession of the house”. eastern times. march 6, 1905. translated from the original chinese by the author: “凡 人必有所比较，而后知去取故欲去人迷信者，必先以实理显之。本馆夙具此心，故拟今岁，用时宪书与天气预报二 者合登预报端，使人自明迷信与实理之熟为有用…自明日始，再加风雨寒暑表列时宪书之下，以便阅者。” 36 wang yuanchong, “calendar books of the qing dynasty and the formation of a modern.” unified and multinational china 05, (2018):185-203 & 208. 37 “provincial news”. eastern times. june 19, 1904. translated from the original chinese by the author：“天津归客云，今 年春间直省雨水应时，谷价顿跌，乃由四月以来冰雹屡降，好雨甚稀。近日黄风时作，旱象已形，恍如庚子四五月 间气象，想因日俄战事方急，故风云亦为变色也。” history of meteorology 12 (2025) 13 have set up an altar on mount jade emperor to pray for rain. this follows the decision of the provincial public security bureau of the city to ban slaughtering for three days, from the 10th, in the hope that the lack of rain will be alleviated. furthermore, the production of fish replicas, which are cured, must also be halted in order to facilitate the avoidance of the cloud.38 the involvement of well-educated members of the gentry, who may represent certain intellectual groups and the general public, in this activity suggests that the dissemination of western meteorological knowledge was also influenced by traditional cultural frameworks. in 1926, the chinese meteorologist zhu kezhen published an article entitled: “on praying for rain, banning butchery and drought”, in which he put forth the proposition that: [b]anning butchery and praying for rain, and welcoming the gods and goddesses to compete in droughts are like the wind, horses and oxen, which are not related to drought, and there is no doubt about it when we consider it in the context of today’s scientific progress.39 meteorological professionals such as zhu kezhen had been vocal in their criticism of the practice of praying for rain and prohibiting the slaughter of animals. they recognized that, against the backdrop of a time when science had not been popularized in china, scientific methods should be promptly used to study weather phenomena and issue weather forecasts. this phenomenon reflects a psychological inertia that had developed among the chinese people over a long period. it is not unique to china; many other cultures also engaged in similar practices of seeking divine intervention during significant weather events. in the process of developing agricultural production, countries around the world have shown great concern for weather conditions, which gave rise to the practice of rainmaking rituals. even in the era of the development of modern meteorology, this tradition of praying for rain persisted.40 for instance, christian believers in twentieth century america would hold rainmaking ceremonies during droughts, while in china, people would conduct such rituals in temples amid dry spells. in the era preceding the advent of scientific inquiry, people regarded meteorological phenomena as enigmatic and capricious. consequently, they petitioned deities for intercession when the weather exhibited aberrant behaviour, a practice observed in china and many other countries.41at that time, regardless of a country or nation’s level of scientific advancement, the global population tended to seek solace through prayer when confronted with anomalous meteorological events. conclusion weather forecasts were among the earliest forms of western meteorological knowledge introduced into public life in china. newspapers served as the earliest mass media platform for publishing weather forecasts in modern china. the eastern times, being the first chinese-run and chinese-language newspaper to introduce a weather forecast, stands as a valuable source of meteorological history from this era. this publication not only circulated within shanghai but also reached 54 cities across four chinese provinces, as well 38 “hangzhou prays for rain again”. eastern times. august 11, 1934. translated from the original chinese by the author：“ 杭州十日中央社电，杭市十日起，又实行断屠三天，士绅复上玉皇山向玉皇大帝虔诚祈雨。杭州通讯，杭市士绅， 自九日起，又在玉皇山设坛祈雨，并由省会公安局通令全市屠宰商及肉铺，自十日起禁屠三天如三日不雨。则全市 之腌腊鱼鲞，亦须一例停市祈禳云。” 39 zhu kezhen, “on praying for rain, banning slaughter, and drought.” eastern miscellany 13, no. 23 (1926): 9-10. 40 seneviratna, anuradha. “folk beliefs and rituals associated with rain and drought.” journal of the royal asiatic society sri lanka branch 29 (1984): 33–54. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23730747. 41 wang hao, “the observations and cognitions of foreign meteorological observatories by traditional scholars who are travelling abroad in late qing period.” studies of maritime history, no. 2 (2023): 282. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 14 as 16 countries overseas. for readers in shanghai and suzhou, these forecasts provided daily weather information. moreover, the reports on port city conditions and warnings about typhoons and other severe weather events offered coastal residents and sailors in shanghai essential guidance for planning their maritime activities and safeguarding lives and property. the inclusion of weather forecasts in chinese newspapers facilitated the dissemination of western meteorological knowledge and technology, allowing the public to gain insights into weather conditions in foreign regions such as japan, korea, and manila, particularly concerning coastal wind patterns. the evolution of the eastern times’ weather forecasts over two distinct periods reflects the broader engagement of the chinese public with meteorological science during this period. these changes can be attributed to the differing editorial philosophies of the newspaper’s managing editors. in its initial period, the eastern times was managed by reform-minded individuals who had limited exposure to western meteorology, leading to a lower level of societal awareness and intellectual interest in meteorology. by the 1920s, however, intellectuals championed the cause of “science,” fostering widespread public interest in scientific knowledge. during this second period, the eastern times, along with other prominent publications like shen bao and eastern miscellany, significantly increased their coverage of western scientific disciplines, including meteorology. the return of meteorology students from abroad played a crucial role in disseminating advanced meteorological knowledge. as a result, both intellectuals and the general public gained deeper access to western meteorological insights. weather forecasts were no longer prominently featured at the top of the newspaper but were integrated into the daily news sections, reflecting their growing integration into everyday life. throughout its publication history, the eastern times consistently reported on severe weather events. despite interruptions in regular weather forecast reporting between 1908 and 1925, the newspaper continued to provide updates on typhoon warnings and cessation notices, often accompanied by analyses of the underlying causes. this ongoing coverage highlights the increasing public concern for meteorological disasters and the expanding scope of public interest in meteorology, underscoring the broader dissemination of western meteorological knowledge in china during the period. comparing the eastern times’ weather forecast content with that of the englishlanguage newspaper the north-china herald offers further insight into the chinese public’s evolving understanding of western meteorology. initially, the eastern times’ forecasts lagged behind those of the north-china herald, which began publishing daily weather reports from the zikawei observatory in 1884. the consistency and comprehensiveness of the north-china herald’s forecasts reflected the higher public awareness of meteorology in western countries like britain and france. by the second period in 1926, the eastern times’ content closely mirrored that of the north-china herald, indicating a significant improvement in the public’s comprehension of weather forecasts. this transformation demonstrates how western meteorological knowledge gradually became an integral part of daily life in shanghai, contributing to the city’s cultural fabric. the eastern times’ introduction of weather forecasts aimed to promote western scientific principles and challenge traditional beliefs, such as those found in the shixian calendar regarding auspicious and inauspicious days. despite this goal, the newspaper frequently reported on rain prayers and meat bans, highlighting the enduring influence of traditional practices. a few intellectuals recognized the challenges posed by these traditions and actively promoted western meteorological knowledge. however, most of the public remained deeply influenced by traditional customs. this phenomenon underscores the history of meteorology 12 (2025) 15 complex interplay between science and tradition, where traditional beliefs often interacted with and sometimes hindered the dissemination of scientific knowledge. acknowledgements we would like to thank qian chen for her information, support and advice. in addition, we would like to thank xiao liu and zhenwu qiu for their advice and assistance, and the anonymous reviewers for their suggestions for revising the article. research for this paper was supported by science and technology projects of xizang autonomous region, china (project no. xz202501zy0141), the project of promoting postgraduates science popularization ability of china association for science and technology in 2024 (project no. kxyjs2024019) and project of historical data collection and oral interview of the scientists’ spiritual education base of china association for science and technology (project no. cg20240722009). microsoft word 8)williamson & wilkinson .docx history of meteorology 8 (2017) 159 asian extremes: experience, exchange and meteorological knowledge in hong kong and singapore c.1840-1939 fiona williamson ariwfc@nus.edu.sg national university of singapore & climatic research unit, university of east anglia clive wilkinson climatic research unit, university of east anglia introduction on 29 july 1939, the aircraft carrier hms eagle was off the northern entrance of the formosa strait, approximately 25⁰n, 121⁰e. the ship’s meteorological officer was formulating the current synoptic weather situation, which included a typhoon to the south or south-east of formosa with a second typhoon much further east in about 144⁰e. it might be expected that in 1939, the existence and position of a typhoon could be corroborated easily by contemporary ‘experts’ situated nearby. however ‘the utmost confusion prevailed’ noted the officer ‘among the experts at zikawei, manila & hong kong today …i think there is no doubt that a typhoon reached formosa … this was also confirmed by zikawei’s signals, but manila gave it a position much further east while hong kong stoutly maintained that there were no typhoons on the map at all’.1 the level of bewilderment over such a significant event may seem surprising to our modern eyes but this would not be considered unusual to anyone who had studied the correspondence of the above mentioned observatories for the early twentieth century. confusion, mediocre communication channels and, on occasion, outright antipathy, limited what might otherwise have been a profitable and progressive relationship between meteorological services. this is explained by the history of the development of meteorology in the asia-pacific region. 1 uk national meteorological archive (hereafter nma), e17, meteorological logbook of the hms eagle, 29 july 1939. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 160 pertinent to understanding this story has been the reframing of the science within the historiography to reveal its regional and global heritage, with emphasis placed on how the circulation of knowledge across time and space led to scientific evolution and discovery.2 this should be allied in this instance with the concept of an ‘imperial meteorology’.3 the imperial framework creates a permeable space for the transfer of knowledge at the same time as providing the resources and contexts for its development.4 in the imperial colonies (not just of britain but the german, french, dutch and japanese empires especially), concern over desiccation – localised climate change induced by man’s impact on the environment – was a significant contributing factor toward increasing investment in meteorological research.5 colonial officers engaged in fields as seemingly diverse as forestry, medicine, and engineering believed in the importance of improving and increasing observations of rainfall and temperature to better understand the phenomena. this investment was made possible by technological innovation. key here were the widespread installation of underwater telegraph cable from the 1850s,6 improvements in the accuracy and precision of observational instruments, and standardisation in observational practice and reporting.7 crucial here were the 2 see for example: brett m. bennett & joseph m. hodge, eds, science and empire: knowledge and networks of science across the british empire, 1800-1970 (london: palgrave macmillan, 2011); d. n. livingstone and c. w. j. withers, ‘thinking geographically about nineteenth-century science’ in d. n. livingstone and c. w. j. withers, geographies of nineteenth-century science (chicago: chicago university press, 2011), 1-20; lissa roberts, ‘situating science in global history: local exchanges and networks of circulation’, itinerario 33 (2009): 19-30; simon naylor, ‘introduction: historical geographies of science – places, contexts, cartographies’, british journal for the history of science 38:1 (2005): 1-12; d. n livingstone, putting science in its place: geographies of scientific knowledge (chicago: chicago university press, 2003). 3 m. mahony, ‘for an empire of ‘all types of climate’: meteorology as an imperial science’, journal of historical geography 51 (2016): 29-39; m. zaiki and t. tsukahara, ‘meteorology on the southern frontier of japan’s empire: ogasawara kazuo at taihoku imperial university’, east asian science, technology and society: and international journal 1:2 (2007): 183-203 4 j. mcaleer, “stargazers at the world’s end: telescopes, observatories, and ‘views’ of empire in the nineteenth century british empire”, british journal for the history of science 46:3 (2011): 389-413; david aubin, charlotte bigg and h. otto sibum, eds, the heavens on earth: observatories and astronomy in nineteenth-century science and culture (durham, nc: duke university press, 2010); g. a. good, ‘a shift of view: meteorology in john herschel’s terrestrial physics’ in j. r. fleming, v. jankovic & d. r. coen, eds, intimate universality: local and global themes in the history of weather and climate (mass.,: science history publications, 2006), pp. 3567; s. m. razaullah ansari, ‘early modern observatories in india, 1792-1900’ in chattopadhyaya, ed., history of science, pp. 349-380: brian warner, royal observatory, cape town, 1820–1831: the founding of a colonial observatory (dordrecht: kluwer academic publishers, 1995). 5 for more on desiccation see: gregory barton, ‘empire forestry and the origins of environmentalism’, journal of historical geography 27, no. 4 (2001): 529-552 or richard grove, green imperialism: colonial expansion, tropical island edens and the origins of environmentalism, 1600-1860 (cambridge: cambridge university press, 1995). 6 katherine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: the university of chicago press, 2005), p. 1. 7 see m. f. maury, explanations and sailing directions to accompany the wind and current charts, 7th ed. (philadelphia: e. c. & j. biddle, 1855), chap. xx ‘maritime conference held at brussels for devising a uniform system of meteorological observations at sea; 1853’; v. janković, reading the skies: a cultural history of english weather, 1650-1820 (manchester: manchester university press, 2000), p. 157. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 161 adoption of francis beaufort’s wind force scale, luke howard’s classification system for clouds, and henry piddington’s standardised vocabulary for storms across the british empire.8 whilst attention has been drawn to the story of meteorology in the china seas region,9 and british meteorology and british imperial meteorology in this period,10 meteorology in britain’s overseas colonies in hong kong and singapore has been less considered. notable exceptions include kevin mackeown, ho pui-yin and wai man-kui’s work on the hong kong observatory and typhoon forecasting respectively.11 all three scholars drew attention to the role of typhoons in advancing meteorological research, especially the critical necessity of improving the storm warning system and, later, to produce more accurate weather forecasts. for the cities of hong kong and singapore a typhoon (hong kong) or a flood (singapore), could result in disaster, destroying the lives of local inhabitants and/or the livelihoods of maritime traders, shipping companies and fishing industry upon which the ports depended economically. the main task of the early weather watchers then was to study and improve their knowledge of extreme weather systems and to provide advance storm warnings. this was achieved through a combination of techniques, including collating barometric observations across as wide an area as possible (terrestrial and marine) and by communicating news of approaching storms from regional registering stations, observatories and nearby ships. key to the success of the latter was the effectiveness of communications. the laying of electric telegraph across the mid-to-late nineteenth century played a major role here, making possible the rapid transmission of news across the meteorological hubs of the philippines, japan, china, 8 h. piddington, the sailor’s horn-book for the law of storms (1848); w. reid, an attempt to develop the law of storms by means of facts (1838). 9 robert bickers, “‘throwing light on natural laws”: meteorology on the china coast, 1869-1912’ in robert bickers and isabella jackson, eds, treaty ports in modern china: law, land and power (routledge, 2016), pp. 179-200; gregory t cushman, ‘the imperial politics of hurricane prediction: from calcutta to manila and galveston, 1839-1900’ in erika marie bsumek, david kinkela, and mark atwood lawrence, nation-states and the global environment: new approaches to international environmental history (oxford scholarhsip online, 2013); james f. warren, ‘weather, history and empire: the typhoon factor and the manila galleon trade, 1565-1815’ in geoff wade and li tana, eds, anthony reid and the study of the southeast asian past (singapore: iseas, 2012), pp. 183-220; james f. warren, ‘scientific superman: father jose algue, jesuit meteorology, and the philippines under american rule, 1897-1924’ in a. w. mccoy and f. a. scarano, eds, colonial crucible: empire in the making of the modern american state (wisconsin: the university of wisconsin press, 2009), pp. 508-519; a. udías, searching the heavens and the earth: the history of jesuit observatories (dordrecht/boston/london: kluwer academic publishers, 2003); lewis pyenson, civilizing mission: exact sciences and overseas french expansion, 1830-1940 (baltimore and london: john hopkins university press, 1993). 10 see, for example, mahony, “for an empire of ‘all types of climate’; p. moore, the weather experiment: the pioneers who sought to see the future (london: vintage, 2015); mcaleer, “stargazers at the world’s end; aubin, bigg and sibum, eds, the heavens on earth; j. golinski, british weather and the climate of enlightenment (chicago: chicago university press, 2007): anderson, predicting the weather; r. hamblyn, the invention of clouds: how an amateur meteorologist forged the language of the skies (london: picador, 2001); janković, reading the skies. 11 see p. kevin mackeown, early china coast meteorology: the role of hong kong (hong kong: hong kong university press, 2011); wai man-kui, ‘the early tropical cyclone warning systems in hong kong, 18411899’, hong kong meteorological society bulletin»14:1:2 (2004): 49-81; pui-yin ho, weathering the storm: hong kong observatory and social development (hong kong university press, 2003). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 162 hong kong, and malaya. after 1915, radio telegraphy was used to communicate between shipping and the mainland in hong kong. nevertheless, as jan golinski reminds us, the history of meteorology was not a linear or clear-cut progression; caution should be applied in conceptualising it within a developmental teleological framework.12 certainly, the proliferation of conflicting scientific theories would dog would-be meteorologists throughout the nineteenth century. the many different explanations for cyclonic storms for example – especially pertinent to the china seas – caused decades of debate.13 the collation of a global observational record – one of the main means of studying the weather before 1900 – was problematized by a lack of consistency. this was due to a scarcity of registering stations, especially outside of urban areas; short operating periods of only a few years in some cases before they were abandoned, and problems of communicating the observations themselves. the revolutionary telegraph, for example, was plagued with problems, malfunctioning or being abandoned due to political unrest, limited or poor maintenance, cost, and with some irony, even bad weather. as mackeown also rightly points out, the contentious personalities of the observatory directors – especially the long-standing william doberck in hong kong – also limited the possibilities of progressive research between countries. this paper seeks therefore to accomplish four interconnected aims. first, to consider the development of meteorological services in british hong kong, and to a lesser extent singapore, to highlight a lesser known aspect of the story of nineteenth and early twentieth century colonial meteorological science. second, to draw attention to the region’s extreme weather as a unique factor which differentiated imperial science in the colonies from meteorology in britain. the weather provided a catalyst for investment in regional research ultimately critical to understanding global drivers in the evolution of meteorological science. third, to consider the history of making observations in the region. this history joined the maritime community with the terrestrial meteorological organisations. as scholars have noted, ships could rightly be considered ‘itinerant observatories’ generating knowledge through the intimate experience of ship’s officers with oceanic weather.14 finally, it will explore something of the knowledge network that linked the colonial port city of hong kong, and to a lesser extent singapore, via the shipping and communications channels that criss-crossed the china seas and connected east and southeast asia. 12 j. golinski, british weather and the climate of enlightenment (london and chicago: chicago university press, 2007), p. 8. 13 g. kutzbach, the thermal theory of cyclones: a history of meteorological thought in the nineteenth century (american meteorological society, 1979). 14 john herschel coined the phrase and it has been used to good affect by historians including: simon naylor, ‘weather instruments all at sea: meteorology and the royal navy in the nineteenth century’ in f. macdonald and c. w. j. withers, eds, geography, technology and instruments of exploration (oxon: routledge, 2016), pp. 77-96. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 163 making observations: imperial storm science across land and sea in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, knowledge of winds, currents, and weather along the trade routes that crossed the china seas stretching from singapore north to macau and hong kong and then east along the china coast to taiwan, korea, japan, and south-east to manila, was considered sensitive commercial intelligence to be kept secret, if possible, from potential rivals. that situation could not last. by the nineteenth century, it had become a matter of the greatest urgency to collaborate across borders – both geographic and political – to collect meteorological observations, especially to facilitate early storm warnings. as james warren has shown for manila, the monsoon and typhoon seasons had the ability to change the course of history for the regional shipping industry.15 with a typhoon season in the china seas that affected mainland hong kong between may and november, and a north-east monsoon affecting singapore from november to january, both port entrepôt were affected by extreme weather. the typhoons had the force to severely disrupt regional trade for both commercial ports, as well as wreaking havoc on hong kong through a combination of wind, tidal surge and flood. in singapore, there were no typhoon but the monsoon brought heavy rains and storms which had the potential to inundate the low-lying marshy town. an improved understanding of the weather was thus critical to all aspects of life across land and sea in this region and there should be little distinction made between maritime and terrestrial scientific developments. at sea, the process of studying the weather began from time immemorial but commercially, written sailing instructions were some of the first accounts to detail marine weather that were made available publicly. in britain, the seventeenth century records of the english east india company (eeic) were invaluable resources. the information in these sailing instructions came from accounts and experiences of sailing masters, often accompanied by a generalized explanation of the winds, currents and storms that might be encountered on a voyage. sailing directions were a practical tool to assist the mariner however, and seldom incorporated the latest scientific thinking. the reason for this is easily explained. the simple descriptive model of the wind system, and in particular the monsoon, as illustrated in the sailing directions, accurately reflected what the mariner actually experienced. scientific refinement was thus of academic interest but deemed to have little practical application. hurricanes, typhoons and cyclonic storms were however a different matter, and the study of countless observations and experiences of what came to be called revolving storms, promoted strategies of avoidance, mitigation and even exploitation. negotiating monsoon winds in both the indian ocean and china seas was also a matter of the practical application of information disseminated through the handing on of personal experience, and more formally through printed sailing directions. where a scientific explanation of the monsoon was attempted, it usually involved the accepted understanding of the time. this was the seasonal heating and cooling of the asian continent that caused the monsoon winds to blow from one direction and then later in the year to reverse that direction. it 15 warren, ‘weather, history and empire’. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 164 was the same phenomenon as the local diurnal change from land breeze to sea breezes, familiar to all mariners, but on a continental scale.16 the modern explanation of the passage of the monsoon trough, or inter-tropical convergence zone (itcz) would have made little impact on the practical application of observed experience. this practical application is illustrated well by the advice given in the 1843 edition of horsburgh’s india directory. it is worth quoting at length. ships bound to china, which depart from singapore or banca straits in february, march and part of april, may expect a tedious beating passage: in march, april or may, they may proceed by the inner passage, along the coast of cochin-china, which is generally the most expeditious route in these months; but when june approaches the south-west monsoon is set regularly in, the track by the macclesfield bank seems preferable, the winds being more steady in the open sea than near the coast. even so early as april …. a ship may sometimes get a westerly breeze blowing out of the gulf of siam, to carry her to the macclesfield bank, and afterwards easterly winds, to run to the grand ladrone; but if she proceed by the inner passage, easterly winds may retard her progress around the south-east coast of hainan, and thence to the entrance of the canton river.17 this is the closest thing to a weather report, or rather weather advice that a ship’s master could expect at that time. as such it was based on (as the title page from horsburgh clearly states) ‘original journals of the honourable company’s ships, and from the observations and remarks resulting from the experience of twenty-one years in the navigation of those seas.’18 sailing directions such as horsburgh and those that both preceded and came after, were some of the earliest (western) disseminations of weather and climatic knowledge in the monsoon seas, based entirely on local observation and the careful accumulation and analysis of data collected over many years. it was an extraordinary achievement made purely for commercial, rather than scientific, purposes. typhoons were the other major weather phenomena encountered by ships on the passage across the china seas. typhoons were a danger that could result in the total loss of ship, crew and cargo. as with the regime of monsoon winds, sailing directions carefully documented the most dangerous season and the areas most prone to these devastating events. however, this was still not sufficient, as horsburgh lamented: 16 james horsburgh, the india directory or directions for sailing to and from the east indies, china, australia and the interjacent ports of africa and south america. (1852), vol. 1, iii-iv. 17 james horsburgh, the india directory or directions for sailing to and from the east indies, china, australia and the interjacent ports of africa and south america. (london, 1843), vol. 2, p. 292. 18 ibid. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 165 to be able to prognosticate the coming of these tempests would be very useful to navigators, but this cannot be done with certainty, for they frequently commence without giving much indication of their approach. …. marine barometers, if well constructed seem to afford the best means of anticipating these tempests; for on the south coast of china, there is a greater fall of the mercury than might be expected within the tropics.19 it was in this respect that science needed to be applied to the vast amounts of locally gathered observations to be found in ships’ logs and journals. this was not easily achieved despite the obvious need and clear benefits. as late as 1875, labrosse’s sailing directions for the china seas cast doubt on some of the earlier work that had been done in trying to understand the behaviour of typhoons. …[the] track of typhoons …. obeys neither the general law governing cyclones of the northern hemisphere, nor any fixed rule …. after a perusal of piddington’s researches, it must be admitted that the track of typhoons lies between nnw and ssw; but it is best not to rely too confidently on this … labrosse continues, stating how some typhoons have behaved differently, then; ‘…. it is clear that no fixed rule can be given to avoid typhoons; … we shall confine ourselves to giving general advice.’ after giving this advice, largely drawn from horsburgh, he concludes that typhoons are to be feared and that almost all measures taken to avoid them are of little use.20 labrosse was clearly aware of piddington’s work but maybe not the work of others such as william birt. previous decades had produced volumes of work describing hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons. there were many scientists and others interested in researching this topic, chief among them william redfield, william reid, heinrich william dove, charles meldrum, bernhardus varenius, henry piddington, benito viñes and later in the nineteenth century john eliot, to name just a few. piddington, (referred to by labosse above) a former mariner turned scientist and based in calcutta, having been inspired by reid’s law of storms, wrote twentythree storm memoirs, as well as many other articles on storms, most of them published in the journal of the asiatic society of bengal. in the fourth memoir on the law of storms, piddington was requested by the secretary of the marine board to investigate the loss of the golconda, bound from singapore to macao in 1840, and caught by a typhoon in the china sea. piddington drew upon the logs and journals of other vessels traversing the china sea at that time and his analysis concluded that there were in fact two storms and that those vessels that 19 ibid., p. 289. this and other sets of sailing directions by others such as findlay and rosser contain a profusion of accounts of typhoons and hurricanes, littered with barometric pressure observations, gleaned from vessels whose logbooks are likely no longer extant. 20 f. labrosse (trans j. w. miller), the navigation of the pacific ocean and china seas (1875), pp. 27, 29. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 166 survived had heeded the advice given in the law of storms. his analysis also confirmed that the storms behaved in accordance with current theory and that the typhoon was a rotary storm.21 the type of research performed by piddington was essential, but difficult to carry out and to communicate to those most in need of the results. at a meeting of the asiatic society in 1840, piddington submitted a memorandum outlining the difficulties he encountered in obtaining extracts from logbooks to carry out his researches. commanders were unwilling to hand over extracts, and piddington asked the society to apply to the government to issue an order making it compulsory to hand over information on storms. as commanders were answerable only to the ship owners for their logs, it was considered unlikely that the government would consider such a measure, but the society’s secretary stated that he would at least write to the government asking them to make an appeal to ships’ officers.22 piddington’s contemporary in mauritius, charles meldrum, had better fortune in gathering data, as he did not rely on goodwill and the submission of logbooks, but sent his assistants to transcribe parts of the logbooks of ships in port. meldrum was working to a plan, outlined and partly implemented by alexander thom, which would have ultimately resulted in a network of meteorological observations from stations collecting data from shipping. the collection points included mauritius, bombay, calcutta, ceylon, swan river and melbourne, the intention being to produce published data and results across the indian ocean. the extension of this plan to the china sea would have been a next logical step, but the overall plan lacked both support, co-operation and funding to publish the results, apart from an initial volume covering a single month in 1853.23 the precious and irreplaceable raw data gathered by thom and meldrum, along with its results still sits (unused) in an archive in mauritius in need of urgent conservation. from this it can be seen that early work on storms and typhoons and the benefit of the resulting analysis was difficult both to gather and, more critically, difficult to communicate. in 1848, after reconstructing yet another severe storm, piddington issued a strong statement in conclusion. if warnings like these are not listened to, it is difficult to say what will be required. nothing short of a whole fleet would seem sufficient to rouse the attention of those who it behoves to insist upon the laws of our science being as duly attended to as the lead and the chart, and upon every commander intrusted (sic) with public property noting in his log his reasons for standing on or heaving to on the approach of bad weather; and this will, in case of his return to port in 21 henry piddington, ‘a fourth memoir of the law of storms in india, being remarks and documents relative to the loss of the ship golconda, in the tyfoons of 22nd to 24th september 1840, in the china sea’, journal of the asiatic society of bengal, vol. 10 (1841): 895-906. 22 journal of the asiatic society of bengal, vol. ix (1840), ‘proceedings of the society’, 552-4. 23 charles meldrum, contributions to the meteorology and hydrography of the indian ocean (part 1) a meteorological journal of the indian ocean for the month of march 1853, (1854), i-v. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 167 a disabled state, at once show if he understood his position or not. if he did not, he is unfit for the command of a vessel till he does.24 the slow and piecemeal accretion of observational data, with little in the way of a formal system of analysis or communication, except by individual publication, did enable some progress in understanding typhoons and cyclones. in 1858, m. f. maury remarked on the recurvature of typhoons and their unusual tracks, but admitted that the reason for this behaviour was a puzzle to both meteorologists and navigators.25 by the 1860s w. h rosser, in his sailing directions included very detailed ‘meteorological signs preceding a hurricane, which included portents observed by sight, sound and feeling. this was drawn largely from birt’s handbook of the law of storms, published in 1853 and re-issued in 1879.26 rosser himself published his own law of storms, joining a pantheon of similarly titled volumes. most of these volumes were derivative, borrowing heavily from previous publications, yet slowly producing a comprehensive list of advice for mariners to observe, or ignore if they chose. rosser’s publication was unique however, and its chief interest, for the historian at least, is not the advice given to mariners but the extraordinarily detailed historiography of the development of the science surrounding cyclones and cyclone theory from the time of columbus up until the time rosser was writing.27 at this point the somewhat troubled progress of the early communication of knowledge and understanding of hurricanes and typhoons had reached a logical conclusion in the advice issued through sailing directions and the innumerable variations of the law of storms. effective typhoon forecasting, as opposed to simply recognizing the portents, required a network of observers and a means (such as telegraph) to issue warnings. nevertheless, the behaviour of typhoons was now well documented if imperfectly understood. this was in part due to governmental intervention in requesting that information contained in logs be handed over to port or meteorological authorities on land, as had been hoped back in the 1840s. in hong kong for instance, colonial secretary frederick stewart intervened to make sure that the observatory received observations taken on board ships that docked at port from the 1880s.28 these observations were collated by the observatory’s first female member of staff anna doberck (sister to director william) from 1892; from which she personally constructed pilot charts. thus in hong kong, as in most parts of the world, the story of meteorological science began in earnest with the making and collation of instrumental weather observations, a trajectory that closely mirrored and connected with maritime developments. in line with early 24 henry piddington, ‘fifteenth memoir of the law of storms’, journal of the asiatic society of bengal, vol xvii (1848): 27-56. 25 m. f. maury, explanations and sailing directions to accompany the wind and current charts, (1858), vol. 1, p. 262. 26 w. h. rosser & j. f. imray, the seaman’s guide to the navigation of the indian ocean and china sea (1867), pp. 148-9. 27 w. h. rosser, the law of storms considered practically (1876). 28 public records office hong kong (hereafter pro), hong kong record series (hereafter hkrs) 356 1-1-2, f. 94. frederick stewart to william doberck, 5 november 1888. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 168 nineteenth century thinking to advance understanding of the weather, the recording of observations was considered the essential step in building a body of data from which to extrapolate patterns and to understand the working of storms.29 from the 1840s the british association for the advancement of science (baas) and the royal society had worked toward a grand plan of establishing a global network of imperial observatories from which could be gathered systematic, daily terrestrial observations, to augment information from the naval and east india company ships log books. in line with this, the number of registering stations was gradually expected to increase. ideal versus reality? the situation in hong kong and singapore the reality was a far less structured and less co-ordinated affair. the british colonies at singapore and hong kong are excellent examples of the degrees of success and variances from country-to-country. between the 1820s and 1860s registering stations were limited and experiments in producing consistent meteorological series ad hoc. a temperature and rainfall series survives for singapore for 1820-23 made by then governor william farquhar at fort canning, who also made observations in malacca (1809) and in georgetown, penang (181516, 1820-21, 1823).30 between 1839 and 1841 joseph s. travelli – a missionary – made observations at ryan's hill at the american board of foreign missions where travelli was then based.31 then from 1835 to 1836 rainfall and temperature observations were published in the singapore free press and mercantile advertiser but thereafter only sporadic records survive until the late 1860s. there was, for example, an observatory operating in singapore between 1841-5. established as part of edward sabine and the baas ‘magnetic crusade’,32 the singapore observatory was closed due to a lack of funds and political will.33 although meteorological observations were only made as a by-product of the magnetic investigation, the observatory did produce a consistent four year temperature series for singapore and, for a few months in sarawak, borneo during 1842.34 likewise, a series of meteorological and tidal observations were started in 1844 at penang island but ceased in 1846 by order of the 29 anderson, predicting the weather, pp. 6, 132-140; mahony, ‘for an empire’: 30-1; golinski, british weather, p. 210; f. williamson, ‘weathering the british empire: meteorological research in the early nineteenth-century straits settlements’, british journal for the history of science 48:3 (2015): 475-492, 6-7; good, ‘a shift of view’, p. 35. 30 thermometrical and barometrical tables communicated by lieut. col. william farquhar, transactions of the royal asiatic society of great britain and ireland, vol. 1, appendix 1: 585-599. 31 joseph s. travelli, “abstract of a meteorological register kept at singapore”, the american journal of science and arts xliv (1843): 150-8. 32 j. cawood, ‘the magnetic crusade: science and politics in early victorian britain’, isis, 70:4 (1979): 493518. 33 williamson, ‘weathering the british empire’: 486, 488. 34 the observations made by lieutenant charles elliot are available online at the british geological survey: http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/data/yearbooks/sin.html history of meteorology 8 (2017) 169 government.35 as the century progressed and the call for extending observations became more mainstream, the straits settlements rather fell by the wayside. a small observing facility was located at mount faber from the 1880s36 until 1934 when it moved to the new kallang airfield, but it was 1928 before it was equipped with the latest wireless receiving equipment and a traveling micrometer for time determination.37 weather observation throughout most of the nineteenth century in singapore was not the job of a formal meteorological service but a combination of the colonial medical branch, public works departments, or private plantation or estate owners.38 in the 1860s for example, observations were made at killeney estate on river valley road, by jonas vaughan, exseaman, who published the rainfall, temperature and wind readings in the government gazette.39 other stations were gradually added over the 1870s and 1880s, including perseverance estate at geylang owned by the alsagoff family.40 registering stations were often located at hospitals too in order to study the relationship of rain and temperature with health. in singapore, this included the convict hospital at bras basah and the pauper hospital, likely part of the large tan tock seng hospital facility. there were also stations at the p&o depot at new harbour; water-works reservoir, thompson rd (made by james mcritchie municipal engineer); and of course the botanic gardens (made by superintendent nathanial cantley). in the early twentieth century, formal responsibility for meteorology was passed from the medical department to the museums department in singapore under the direction of mr herbert robinson. robinson, director of museums between 1908 and 1926, had an active interest in the science. he appointed a mr kelliher as a meteorological officer in the direct pay of the museums department and it was under the ward-ship of these two men that meteorological study experienced something of a revival in malaya. robinson was critical of the quality of observations taken by the medical branch previously, suggesting that staff were ill-trained, instruments were not standardised, and readings were temporally erratic.41 whether or not his criticisms can be credited with any veracity, it was he, along with george maxwell – then chief secretary for the federated malay states (fms) – who argued the urgent need for 35 british library (hereafter bl), india office records (hereafter ior), f/4/2170/104987: extract of a dispatch from the government of india to the honourable court of directors, 23 may 1846. 36 the observatory is marked on a map of 1882: nas, c.o. 129/205. media image number: d2014040098, survey of mount faber range and country surrounding singapore, 1882. 37 the national archives uk (hereafter tna), co273/552/12: apparatus for installation at mount faber observatory, 1928. 38 tna: co273/541, g. maxwell and h. c. robinson, ‘a meteorological service for malaya’, p. 1 and the singapore free press and mercantile advertiser, 24 january 1927, p. 7. 39 observations available in the straits settlements government gazette for 1864-6, available at national university of singapore law library (singapore-malaysia collection). 40 observations available in the straits settlements government gazette tna, co273 (5), 1875. 41 tna: co273/541/4: g. maxwell and h. c. robinson, ‘a meteorological service for malaya’, p. 1. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 170 consistency and improvement in the meteorological services in the 1920s. this was made allthe-more pressing by the expansion of aviation services across singapore and the peninsula.42 responsibility for meteorology was passed over again on 1 january 1927, this time to the survey department (part of the public works department).43 this was an interim measure, as plans were afoot to create a dedicated meteorological branch. in 1927 it was vaunted to establish groups of the second order stations down each coast and along the centre of the peninsula … in addition it is hoped to establish a large number of stations at which temperature and rainfall data will be collected with the co-operation of the planting community.44 the service began formal operations in kuala lumpur in 1929. under the new branch, seventeen new fully-equipped stations were built across the peninsula, in addition to those already established.45 the headquarters moved to singapore in 1931. in hong kong, the situation was a little different. before 1860, meteorological research was – like malaya – small-scale. observations were made at government departments, hospitals, police stations and at the harbour master’s office.46 there were also sporadic weather records made by visiting scientists including frank julius ferdinand meyer in the early 1830s and – like singapore – some interested individuals made meteorological diaries. diaries were kept by meteorology enthusiast and dutch consul mr blettermann and an english merchant thomas beale, for instance.47 the early collection of observations along the china coast by the chinese maritime customs service (cmcs) were far more significant. these were published in the canton register, an english-language newspaper founded by two scotsmen in 1827.48 robert hart’s revival of the cmcs in the 1860s was a significant staging point in the modernisation of meteorology and the establishment of a regional observational network. hart was the mainland service’s inspector-general from 1863 and it was he who requested that each customs station in china and hong kong be outfitted with meteorological instruments; 42 nas, m712/14-15, f. 79. extract from the malaya tribune, 14 june 1926: air liners: big scheme for malaya; m712/14-15 ff.84-5. report submitted by samuel g. ebling, vice consul in charge 14 sept 1927. proposed service by air survey company ltd. 43 tna, co273/541/4 proposal to establish a meteorological department for malaya: memorandum on a pamphlet entitled ‘a meteorological department for malaya’ by sir george maxwell and herbert c. robinson, written by victor a. lowinger, surveyor general (federated malay states and straits settlements), 24 october 1927, pp.1, 3. 44 r. l. jarman, annual reports of the straits settlements, 1855-1941, vol. 9., 1927-31 (slough: archive editions: 1998) report for 1927, p. 304. 45 tna, co273/541/4 memorandum on the general scheme for the systematic study of the climate of malaya, 14 october 1927, pp. 1-5. 46 ho, weathering the storm, p. xii. 47 ibid. 48 a. le pichon, ed., china trade and empire: jardine, matheson & co. and the origins of british rule in hong kong 1827-1843 (oxford: oxford university press, 2006), p. 67. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 171 that observations made at lighthouses be made use of, and that meteorological registering stations be established along the coast and linked by telegraph.49 although his scheme was met with a certain amount of ambivalence, especially when it came to hong kong soil, hart did a great deal to standardise and reform meteorological services along the china coastline. observations of temperature, rainfall, wind, cloud, ozone, and pressure made at hong kong were published in the china mail from at least the 1860s.50 in the 1880s the trajectories of meteorology in hong kong and singapore began to diverge. in 1883, the british government paid for an observatory to be opened in hong kong. its staff were expected to take charge of meteorological research and, from 1884, the institution provided the main source of observational data for terrestrial hong kong. it was envisaged that the observatory would provide an important link in a regional observational network, filling a gap essential for improving early storm warnings for hong kong, macau and manila.51 the early emphasis of the hong kong observatory was on protecting the interests of the shipping industry. the provision of a time service for ships, the making of weather observations and issuance of typhoon warnings were considered vital. despite some suggestion that wider meteorological research lagged initially,52 the letters, reports and correspondence of the successive directors – including the first director william doberck – show that impetus to catch up came from colonial secretary frederick stewart who continually pushed doberck to spend more effort on making observations and issuing daily reports and storm warnings for the public.53 doberck – trained as an astronomer in europe – may arguably have lacked experience in the field.54 after arriving in the far east from his previous position in ireland, doberck was thus asked to spend two months visiting swatow (shantou), amoy (xiamen), shanghai and other cities on the chinese coast, as well as travelling on the imperial customs revenue cruiser to lighthouses including those on macau and penghu island in the taiwan strait.55 whilst in shanghai and amoy he inspected, adjusted and verified extant meteorological equipment, and took his own observations during the expedition.56 49 fir more on hart and the service see: bickers, “‘throwing light on natural laws”. 50 see for example, the china mail, 11 january 1868, available online from hong kong public libraries: https://mmis.hkpl.gov.hk/ 51 anthony dyson, from time ball to atomic clock (hong kong: hong kong government printer, 1983), p. 19. 52 correspondence between the acting colonial secretary frederick stewart and doberck in 1886 critiques the latter’s 1885 report for its lack of effort in producing daily weather reports or storm warnings for the public, and neglect of any analysis of the china coast observations: hkrs 356 1-1-2, ff. 4r-5v colonial secretary’s office to the government astronomer, 2-4 march 1886. 53 hkrs356 1-1-2, ff. 4r-5v colonial secretary’s office to the government astronomer, 2-4 march 1886; f. 60 invitation from frederick stewart to william doberck to sit on a specially convening storm signalling board, 13 march 1886. 54 mackeown, china coast meteorology, p. 62-3. 55 hkrs356 1-1-1, 79. despatch 1351 from the colonial secretary’s office, hong kong, 23 august, 1883; hkrs356 1-1-1, inspectorate general of customs circular no. 235, 7 september 1883. 56 hong kong government reports online (hereafter hkgro); administrative reports (hereafter ar), 1883: observatory reports. report from the government astronomer, together with instructions for making meteorological observations, 17 november 1883, p. 1. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 172 his trip was vital in establishing links with the imperial maritime customs service – the cmcs – which was to prove the richest and most important source of regional observations, and the main network for communicating them, for many years to come. during his first few months in hong kong, doberck (usually at the insistence of the colonial secretary) was to highlight the absolute necessity of expanding the range and diversity of meteorological observations and registering stations, a mission that was to consume a large part of his time at hong kong observatory. the extension, he argued, could be done only with the cooperation of hart and the cmcs and it was largely a result of the hart’s efforts along with father marc dechevrens, director of the zikawei observatory at shanghai, that the wide-ranging network of coastal and riverine registering stations were established and their observations standardised. doberck requested that registers from the old and new stations mainland china and macau (including kiungchow [hoihow], pakhoi [beihei], canton [guangzhou] swatow [shantou], and ningpo [ningbo] amongst others), be sent to the observatory monthly and that the network of chinese stations making observations be extended to thirty-five (the latter request was ignored).57 after receiving the observations – via the customs services at amoy and shanghai – doberck intended that his observatory staff would make corrections and revisions as necessary and construct daily weather maps from the data contained therein.58 although doberck’s prime function was that of astronomer, his early work on the law of storms in the china seas published in 1886 – without governmental financial support or impetus – shows a commitment to meteorological research, especially that which directly affected hong kong.59 it is also likely that he was trying to make a name for himself as his pamphlet drew directly from the earlier studies and styles of reid, piddington, rosser and birt. it did his reputation little good however, especially as the maritime community threw doubt on doberck’s findings, suggesting the text had little applicability in the real experiential world of seafaring. on joining hong kong observatory doberck had become part of a major communications and knowledge network that incorporated some of the most significant sites of learning and important scholars of meteorology in asia. because of the regular progression of typhoon tracks across the china seas, excellent communications between china and hong kong were essential but so too was a good relationship and rigorous communication with manila, taiwan, korea and japan. in 1883, an arrangement was made with the great northern and the eastern extension telegraph companies to send – at no cost – observations between hong kong, manila, xiamen, fuzhou, shanghai, vladivostock and nagasaki.60 by 1895, the eastern extension telegraphic company (eetc) exchanged daily observations with 57 mackeown notes that doberck’s proposal for 35 stations was not taken up, possibly because of a lack of enthusiasm on the part of hart and dechevrens to take direction from the colonial office: mackeown, china coast meteorology, pp. 77-8. 58 hkgro, ar, 1883: observatory reports. report from the government astronomer, together with instructions for making meteorological observations, 17 november 1883, p. 2. 59 hkrs 356 1-1-2, f. 18. government order from the colonial secretary to the director of the observatory in regard to the publishing of a pamphlet, 11 september 1886. here stewart tells doberck that there will be no financial or resource support for the publishing of his book though doberck can publish by ‘any private arrangement he likes’. 60 hkgro, ar, 1883: observatory reports. report from the government astronomer, together with instructions for making meteorological observations, 17 november 1883, p. 3. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 173 singapore, haiphong, xiamen, shanghai, bolinas, nagasaki, vladivostock, and macau.61 observations were also received at hong kong and manila from stations in taiwan via taihoku (which included readings made at stations at taihoku, taichu, tainan, koshun [hengchun] and the penghu islands).62 in 1898 the board of directors of the eetc had authorised observations to be taken by their own officers stationed at capiz and tuburan in the visayas (philippines) and promised that these would be communicated to hong kong.63 by the early 1900s thirty-one stations were included in the china coast meteorological register (ccmr) observational network.64 by 1904, telegrams were received at hong kong twice daily from cap st jacques (vũng tàu, vietnam), cap padaran (mui dinh, vietnam), and labuan in the straits settlements (sabah, malaysia).65 the extension of the observational network directly resulted from the need to address the extremes of weather by improving storm forecasting. the weather was the catalyst that led to many investments in the science. certainly, the establishment of the hong kong observatory and the malayan meteorological department can be cited as good examples of this. in hong kong, there had been calls from at least 1861 for an institution to provide a time service and storm warnings for shipping without success. the major typhoon that devastated hong kong in 1874 alerted the public to the benefits of a local observatory and heightened pressure on the government to enact their earlier plans. drawn-out discussions were moved forward and the observatory opened in 1883.66 in similar vein, it could be argued that the restructuring of the malayan meteorological service from 1927-1929 could have been inspired by some of the most serious floods to have been known in that region. although discussions had been underway from as early as 1919 that the colony needed an improved service, 1925 and 1926 saw major flooding in singapore and in rural malaya respectively. the floods crippled large swathes of agricultural land and caused massive destruction of infrastructure.67 a significant component of the planned new service was to increase the number of manned meteorological registering stations across the peninsula to improve the collection of rainfall data, especially in rural areas. this was intended as ‘a preliminary to scientific investigation and a systematic study of the climate ... [and a] … foundation on which can be built a meteorological department capable of dealing with the needs of aviation, upper air research work, the distribution and exchange of information and weather predictions’.68 61 hkrs8421/2 general correspondence 1895-7, 28/4-5, communication from l. webster re meteorological telegrams 17 october 1895. 62 hkrs8421/2, 7, letter to doberck from h. kondo, taihoku meteorological station, 6 november 1896. 63 hkrs842/3 1898-1903. letter to the colonial secretary at hong kong from manager-in-china, eetc, 17 march 1898. 64 an example of acting observatory director frederick figg’s copy of the ccmr can be found at: hkrs842/4 general correspondence 1903-1913, ccmr, 10 september 1903. 65 hkrs842/4 general correspondence 1903-13, letter from director of meteorological services indo-china to hko, 2 may 1902 & letter from eastern extension telegraph company 20 august 1904. 66mackeown, china coast meteorology, pp. 27-8. 67 for more on the 1926 floods, see f. williamson, ‘the great flood of 1926: environmental change and disaster governance in british malaya’, journal ecosystem health and sustainability, environmental impact of disasters special issue, 2:11 (2016). 68 jarman, annual reports: report for 1927, p. 304. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 174 controversy and confusion: the 1906 typhoon and its consequences all such systems however – whether national or international – relied heavily on the effectiveness of the communications network. this was far from perfect. as the example of the hms eagle in 1939 showed, observers could not always agree on the trajectory or even the existence of a typhoon. this could have disastrous consequences. waking up on 18 september 1906, hong kong inhabitants were entirely unprepared for what that day would bring. a typhoon, short but almost unprecedented in strength, was to wreak utter havoc in the colony. at 8am the first warning was given out in the form of the hoisting of a black signal drum (the final in a stage of red to black storm warnings), and the typhoon gun was fired at 8.40 signalling the immediate arrival of the storm. it was too late for the ships, fishing boats and sampans which were already out at sea and could not return to shore in time. it has been suggested that fifty per cent of hong kong’s chinese junks and sampans were destroyed that day and a number of larger merchant and naval vessels were grounded or sunk.69 these included the german steamer petrarch, the british sloop-of-war phoenix, the french destroyers fronde and francisque, and the canadian monteagle.70 on land, serious flooding, wind-driven high waves, and a massive storm surge of 6.10m at tai po – one of the highest ever recorded for that area – caused massive destruction.71 contemporary estimates suggested that between 4000 to 10,000 people died that day.72 the observatory received a large apportionment of blame for the tremendous loss of life and damage to property during this typhoon and a public inquiry was initiated. the investigation, led by a royal navy officer, a master mariner and the manager of the eastern extension telegraph company, was confidently expected to ‘exonerate the director and staff of the observatory’.73 certainly, governor matthew nathan argued that he saw no possible way the organisation could have released an earlier warning. an inquiry was necessary to assuage the public outcry – taken up by the contemporary press – that staff should have and significantly, could have, given a much earlier warning of the impending storm. this view was publicised by french consul to hong kong monsieur liébert, who contended that french ships in the area had been warned by zikawei observatory staff long before hong kong observatory had raised the black drum.74 hong kong observatory contested this, arguing that the last news they had received from zikawei had been the previous evening and that ‘this typhoon gave no 69 li woon yee, the typhoon of 18 september 1906, royal observatory, hong kong, occasional paper no. 36 (1976), p. 3. 70 the calamitous typhoon at hong kong, 18 september, 1906 (hong kong: hong kong daily press, 1906) p. 5. http://ebook.lib.hku.hk/hkg/b36228084.pdf. accessed 05.01.2017. 71 li, typhoon of 18 september 1906, p. 3. 72 calamitous typhoon, p. 1. 73 hkgro, report of a committee, p. 42 and hkgro (1842-1941), hong kong hansard, reports of the meetings of the legislative council, session 1906: report of the meeting 20 september 1906, pp. 51-4. 74 hkgro, report of committee appointed to enquire whether earlier warning of the typhoon of september 18th, 1906, could have been given to shipping; supplement to the hong kong gazette, 22 march 1907. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 175 indication of its existence until close to the colony’.75 the incident is also revealing of the strained relationship between the french jesuits at zikawei and staff – doberck especially – at hong kong.76 after the 1906 typhoon, doberck made it a personal mission to contact comparable observatories around the world to step up the collection of meteorological observations to better understand the weather patterns of the china seas. much of this work was actually undertaken by doberck’s capable meteorological assistants, anna doberck and frederick figg, the latter succeeding doberck as director in 1907. the efforts taken to improve the quality, quantity and, critically, the frequency of observations can be seen to have paid dividends by 1912. a letter to then hong kong director thomas claxton from frere louis froc, director of zikawei observatory, in 1912 noted how ‘owing to increased certainty in the telegraphic transmissions of meteorological data, it is now possible to ascertain the direction in which the typhoon is travelling or from which a gale may be expected to a closer degree than hitherto’.77 claxton continued the work, attempting to persuade all those observatories in his immediate network – namely tokyo, zikawei, manila and indo-china – of the importance of simultaneous observations. claxton argued that this was the only way to guarantee effective daily weather maps for the region.78 to facilitate research, successive directors of the far east stations had also sought to improve the historical record of observations for the region for some time. in a government notice issued from the hong kong observatory on 16 february 1893 for instance, doberck invited ‘owners, agents and masters of vessels … to forward old logbooks on loan to this observatory’ for the purpose of tabulating ‘all observations made on board ships between singapore and 180º e, gr. longtitude and between 0º and 45º latitude…with the view of the issue of pilot charts for the china seas and the north pacific’.79 writing to various meteorological organisations globally, including those in washington, paris, and st petersburg,80 as well as shipping companies like the p&o, he asked if they could furnish him with observations made during voyages on the china seas.81 doberck also communicated with gilbert t. walker, director-general of indian observatories who, in 1905, had sent copies of ‘all charts issued by the various meteorological offices of india’ to hong kong along with 75 calamitous typhoon, p. 1. 76 for more on this controversy see, f. williamson, uncertain skies: ‘forecasting’ typhoons in hong kong c. 1874-1906, quaderni storici (forthcoming, 2018). 77 hkrs356 1-1-3, zikawei to hko concerning addition to the typhoon warning signal, 1912. 78 hkrs356 1-1-3, especially 86, 92, 97 hko 41/12, claxton to harbour master macau, 12 march 1912; hko 19/12 claxton to director central observatory indo-china, 17 february 1912; ho 18/12 claxton to superintendent eastern extension telegraph company, 21 february 1912. 79 hkrs8421/1 general correspondence 1891-4, 107a, government notification no. 63, 16 february 1893. 80 this communication worked two-ways: in 1906 the us department of agriculture weather bureau also requested daily weather information from hko: hkrs842/4 general correspondence 1903-1913 f. 20. letter from usdoa weather bureau to hko 8 august 1906. 81 hkrs8421/1 general correspondence 1891-4, 107a/c, letter from washington to doberck 17 march 1893; letter from shipmaster’s society fenchurch street london letter from p&o managing directors to doberck, 9 june 1893; history of meteorology 8 (2017) 176 signal codes and storm telegraphic code for reference.82 an important avenue for furthering collaboration on such matters was attendance at the meteorological conferences for the far east, the first of which was held in 1913 in tokyo. over succeeding years, a variety of conferences brought the various directors – including those of malaya and hong kong – into direct contact, including during the conference of empire meteorologists held in 1919, 1929, and 1935;83 the meetings of the international meteorological committee and the conferences of the regional meteorological commission for the far east (first held in hong kong in 1937).84 it should not be assumed however that these networks were effective or, that communications were trouble-free. the outcome of the meteorological conference held in tokyo in 1913 for instance was a lack of agreement and discord on the main item under the discussion: the standardisation of storm signals, especially the types of code used and the manner of signalling them, a problem that was to dominate correspondence between hong kong, manila, tokyo and shanghai for many years to come.85 the breakdown of telegraphic communication was also to dog the meteorological services throughout the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. cable lines may have existed but they broke down with regularity during bad weather. in 1887 doberck had noted the problem – even within hong kong – of telegraphic communication. during typhoons, when swift communication was utterly essential, the telegraph between the observatory and the central police station would not work.86 this was not just a localised problem. trans-marine cables regularly broke down and were considered unreliable. in 1903, for example, a complaint was made to the consul general at shanghai regarding the meteorological observations ‘which are supposed to be received twice daily from the imp. mar. customs [sic] authorities at hankow, hainan. these observations rarely arrive in time to be made use of by the hong kong observatory & repeated representations on the subject have had no result’.87 on other occasions the outbreak of war brought disruption or the total breakdown of services. in 1898 for instance, the outbreak of the hostilities between spain and america meant the loss of the manila cable between luzon and hong kong: an essential node in the regional storm warning network.88 at the same time, the cable between samsui and amoy had been destroyed during troubles in mainland china necessitating observations from that region be communicated via japan.89 this was also the case during the chinese revolution 82 hkrs842/4 general correspondence 1903-1913, fol. 13. letter from g. t. gilbert to hko, 30 october 1905. 83 for more on the conferences see mahony, ‘for an empire’. 84 tna, co323/1525/1. international meteorological committee: far east regional committee, preliminary report of the proceedings 13-21 january 1937. 85 hkrs356 1/2/2, unmarked folio. letter from the colonial secretary hong kong to the british consul, hanoi, nd. 1917; hkrs356 1/2/2, unmarked folio. letter from the coast inspector, maritime customs at shanghai to mr le cadet, director hanoi observatory 8 february 1917. 86 hkrs356 1/1/2, f. 32r. report of the director of the observatory for 1886, 31 december 1886. 87 hkrs356 1/2/1, unmarked folio. letter from the colonial secretary’s office at hong kong to h.b.m. consul general shanghai, 23 july 1903. 88 hkrs842 3 1898-1903, unmarked folio. letter to eetc from the colonial secretary 14 june 1898 & 18 june 1898. 89 hkrs842/3, f. 20. communication between the hong kong chamber of commerce and director of the observatory, 17 june 1898. history of meteorology 8 (2017) 177 of 1911 and, although the service was resumed during 1913, claxton reported that ‘the morning observations are never received in time to be utilised for the weather map’.90 other communication problems were caused by finances (many observations were transmitted freely on the good will of the telephone company)91 and by personality. in 1899, for example, there was a ‘suspension of telegraphic typhoon warnings given at manila, for any place outside of the philippines’ due to ongoing hostility between doberck and josé algue, director of the manila observatory, peaking after doberck’s statement that ‘the observatory in manila is in the hands of men who possess very little scientific education’ and his continued assertion that the manila central observatory continually communicated sensational and inaccurate typhoon warnings to the hong kong press.92 conclusions building on recent work highlighting british meteorology as a lens into the networks of knowledge that stretched across an increasingly connected world and kapil raj’s call to ‘relocate’ modern science, this article has sought to offer a corrective to a meteorological historiography which privileges institutional and epistemological histories from the metropoles of european and north american power.93 the history of meteorological services in hong kong and singapore shows how a combination of global and local factors influenced and directed the development of meteorological research. studies of the weather in late nineteenth century and early twentieth century hong kong and singapore were based on collating historic and contemporary observations over a wide geographic area, in order to perceive climatic patterns and to establish the laws governing events such as typhoons. over the period in question the number of registering stations and observatories in hong kong and in singapore was increased, through a variety of private and public investment. by the early twentiethcentury, the system of sporadic observations made by interested individuals or under different government or military departments had been overtaken by the more formal provision of a government sponsored meteorological service. this approach to research reflected global meteorological studies over the same period. 90 report of the director of the royal observatory, hong kong, for the year 1913, e.5. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkgro/view/a1913/193.pdf. accessed 04.01.2017. 91 hkrs842/3, unmarked folio. correspondence between the eetc and hong kong observatory, 14 march 1906. 92 hkrs842/3, general correspondence 1898-1902, 28, letter to the director of the hong kong telegraph from josé algue, director of manila central observatory, 7 march 1899. doberck’s relationship with, and antagonism towards, the manila observatory is covered extensively in mackeown, china coast meteorology, esp. ch. 4. 93 john mcaleer, ‘stargazers at the world’s end: telescopes, observatories, and “views” of empire in the nineteenth century british empire’, british journal for the history of science 46:3 (2011): 389-413; david aubin, charlotte bigg and h. otto sibum, eds, the heavens on earth: observatories and astronomy in nineteenth-century science and culture (durham, nc: duke university press, 2010); kapil raj, relocating modern science: circulation and the construction of knowledge in south asia and europe, 1650-1900 (basingstoke: palgrave mamillan, 2007); katherine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: the university of chicago press, 2005). history of meteorology 8 (2017) 178 in both ports however, it is possible to see the influence of factors closer to home. the weather, especially the typhoon and monsoon seasons respectively, played a role in directing the trajectories of the meteorological services in both colonies. in hong kong, the typhoons that annually wreaked havoc on the island demanded attention, stimulating discussion and research in storm theory, and investment in storm warning systems. in singapore, the lack of such extremes meant that the formal meteorological service developed later, although the need to improve rainfall observations was a significant stimulus toward increasing registering stations across the country. the mariners who traversed the china seas were also major players in understanding the tropical weather during the nineteenth century. it was they who witnessed first-hand storms and typhoons and made breakthroughs based on experience, often in contrast to prevailing theory. thus, the combination of marine and terrestrial weather observers across the china seas was critical to regional meteorological science. personalities and people also played a major role in the different histories of meteorology in the two ports. in singapore, despite the lack of an observatory to direct research work, support and interest from the influential george maxwell and herbert robinson helped to eventually reframe the meteorological services there. in hong kong, the series of colonial governors, especially frederick stewart in the early years, were key to pushing the successive observatory directors to focus more on meteorological work. likewise, the difficult relationships sustained between william doberck and the jesuit scholars at manila and at shanghai was a significant, even dangerous, problem. the personality of key players affected the communication of meteorological observations between manila, shanghai and hong kong which, as we saw in 1899 and in 1906, could have serious consequences. this article has not focussed on the controversies generated by doberck in his relationship with these two observatories as that topic has been covered in depth elsewhere, especially by kevin mackeown. suffice to say that doberck’s difficult relationship with the jesuit scholars at both observatories added to the problems already inherent in the communicational infrastructure. the telegraph was a vital but erratic tool, subject to breakdown and interruption. when working, however, it formed the basis on a remarkable network of meteorological scholars and organisations crossing asia from japan to hong kong, from russia to singapore. this physical network formed the basis of the scholarly network that corresponded on research and innovation including the regional storm signal system, and which gathered at the imperial meteorological conferences of the early twentieth century. much more work needs to be undertaken on piecing together the personal dynamics and scientific discoveries of this incredible network, in addition to that already undertaken for manila and shanghai. acknowledgements this project benefitted from the financial support of a singapore ministry of education academic research fund tier 2 grant entitled “governing compound disasters in urbanising asia” (moe2014-t2-1-017). corresponding author(s) qing guo, faculty of history, nankai university, gqyw@mail.nankai.edu.cn climate regionalization in china: a historical perspective on scientific development and national building qing guo introduction climate regionalization constitutes a foundational component of china’s secondary school level geography curriculum. through this framework, students can situate their lived climatic experiences within a broader climate zone, rapidly grasp national climatic characteristics, and—furthermore—comprehend global climate distribution patterns through comparison with china’s climate.1 in this process, china’s climate is rendered both unique and universal. the climate regionalization taught in this curriculum is not a product of contemporary china, but rather of early twentieth-century china. taking this historical context into account, it may have exerted a far more profound influence on modern chinese historical development than previously assumed. by the early 1900s, chinese intellectuals were facing a foundational question: how could national redemption best be achieved? this discourse traced back to the 1840s, when imperial collapse and territorial losses defined china’s trajectory. key turning points included defeat in the 1895 sino-japanese war and the boxer rebellion in 1900, which symbolized china’s subjugation to colonial powers. 2 such narratives pervaded early republican-era discourse, as seen in textbooks depicting china as a leaf consumed by imperialism.3 1 ministry of education of the people’s republic of china, yiwu jiaoyu dili kecheng biaozhun (2022 nian ban) [compulsory education geography curriculum standards (2022 edition)] (beijing normal university press, 2022), accessed september 15, 2024, https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-04/21/content_5686535.htm. 2 john king fairbank, the cambridge history of china: volume 11, late ch’ing, 1800-1911, part 2 (cambridge university press, 1980), 589–602. 3 xu peng, “qiuhaitang, sangye, xiongji yu zhongguo” [begonia, mulberry leaf, rooster, and china], bolan qunshu [chinese book review monthly], no. 11 (2016): 111–16. mailto:gqyw@mail.nankai.edu.cn history of meteorology 12 (2025) 2 thus, amid national humiliation and a sense of responsibility, various proposals such as “industrial salvation,” “educational salvation,” and “scientific salvation” were successively put forward. the chinese science society, founded in 1914 by chinese students in the united states, aimed, among other things, to popularize science and enable china to become strong and respected in the international community.4 the chinese science society was the most influential non-governmental organization in republican china, whose members included leading figures from various disciplines and served as the representative institution for chinese science before the establishment of the academia sinica in 1928.5 reflecting the outsized influence of the chinese science society on modern chinese history, using science to change the country went on to become one of the central beliefs of modern china’s scientific development. to develop chinese science, ren hongjun(任鸿隽), a leader of the chinese scientific community, proposed that countries with weaker scientific foundations should actively develop local sciences rather than merely pursue the advancement of general sciences. ren introduced a differentiated development strategy: nations with weak scientific bases should prioritize the development of disciplines with regional characteristics. 6 he emphasized that chinese scientists bear an irreplaceable responsibility in advancing china’s local sciences. another scientific leader, the meteorologist zhu kezhen (竺可桢), adopted a similar stance and further noted that foreign scholars’ research on china’s local sciences might risk exceeding their boundaries, particularly when such studies directly involve the infiltration of foreign powers into china’s border regions.7 china’s climate regionalization research was fully aligned with ren and zhu’s scientific objective and became one of the central focuses of zhu kezhen’s work during the 1920-30s. this scientific objective embodies the conviction that chinese scientists, being more familiar with china’s conditions than foreigners, could achieve effective scientific results in a shorter time frame. this confidence stems largely from their nationally relevant natural and cultural experiences. on the other hand, to achieve deeper scientific understanding, more data was required. thus, it is evident that meteorologists of the era regarded meteorological data collection as an integral component of national sovereignty from both a nationalist and a technical perspective.8 in this context, “local science” is used to refer to the study of the natural environment and phenomena across china as a whole, focusing on the distinctive characteristics of its various regions. while in climatological terms “local” might refer to more narrowly defined areas, ren and zhu were advocating for the development of a scientific approach that emphasized china’s unique, multifaceted natural environment. as subsequent research will demonstrate, one of their objectives was to establish the distinctiveness of “china” through scientific inquiry and elevate its national image and status. initially, however, they framed the 4 wang zuoyue, “saving china through science: the science society of china, scientific nationalism, and civil society in republican china,” osiris 17, no. 1 (2002): 291–322. 5 zhang, jian. sai xiansheng zai zhongguo: zhongguo kexueshe yanjiu [mr. science in china: a study of the chinese science society] (shanghai: shanghai scientific & technical publishers, 2018), 1. 6 ren hongjun, “fan taipingyang guoji xueshu huiyi de huigu” [a review of the pan-pacific scientific conference],kexue[science]12, no. 4 (1927): 455–65. 7 zhu kezhen, “riben qixiangxue fada zhi gaikuang”[an overview of the development of meteorology in japan), kexue [science]12, no. 4 (1927): 455–64. 8 liu xiao, “understanding sovereignty through meteorology: china, japan, and the dispute over the qingdao observatory, 1918–1931,” annals of science 81, no. 3 (july 2, 2024): 420–39. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 3 survey of the nation’s climate, flora and fauna, and mineral resources merely as scientists’ responsibility. 9 although the chinese focus has largely been on climatic regionalization, this is actually a term that emerged later. in the 1930s and 1940s, climatologists typically used the term climate classification for their research. it was not until the 1950s that the term climatic regionalization began to be used more widely. while the results presented on maps may appear similar for both terms, in the context of the chinese language, climatic regionalization refers to the division of climate into different regions, similar to administrative divisions, which has become a part of government management of populations and their economic development.10 however, chinese climatologists’ climate classification was initially regional in approach, exhibiting distinctive regionalized characteristics. thus, this paper incorporates climate classification into its analytical framework, deploying specific terminology appropriate to each historical period and contextual scenario. while regions are constructs blending natural and humanistic dimensions, regionalization analysis represents a rigorous scientific enterprise. thomas simpson’s inquiry into andrew herbertson’s “natural regions” theory—articulated in the early 1900s— highlighted the intricate interplay between climate and regional categorization.11 extending this line of research, deborah r. coen demonstrated how climate became the cornerstone of austro-hungarian natural regionalization, as habsburg scholars employed systematic regionalization to map the empire into “natural regions” and “transition zones,” thereby synthesizing climate models at an imperial scale. moreover, coen uncovered adaptive dynamics between cultural practices and climatic conditions, underscoring the reciprocal relationship between human societies and environmental systems. martin brückner’s research highlights how geography in early american history transformed local experiences into national narratives12—a process that closely parallels the case under discussion here. mark frank argues that chinese climatologists of the time constructed the concept of a “chinese climate” through meteorological observations and climate classification systems, thereby integrating the nation-state concept into meteorological knowledge production.13whereas qing guo describes the evolution of climate regionalization methods in china during the first half of the twentieth century, constructing a technological model of introduction-integrationabsorption.14 however, existing studies often focus on scientific processes while overlooking regions’ unique natural and cultural contexts. in particular, china’s climate regionalization is characterized by deep historical roots while also being aligned with the objectives of modern chinese scientific development. this paper explores this uniqueness by examining how chinese climatologists: (1) embedded regional boundaries—rooted in cultural traditions—with scientific legitimacy while adapting foreign climate theories to local conditions; (2) 9 zhu, kezhen, “wo guo di xue jia zhi zeren”[the responsibilities of chinese geographers], shidi xuebao(journal of history and geography) 1, no. 1 (1921): 44–45. 10 deborah r. coen, “imperial climatographies from tyrol to turkestan,” osiris 26, no. 1 (january 2011): 47. 11 thomas simpson and mike hulme, “climate, cartography, and the life and death of the ‘natural region’ in british geography,” journal of historical geography 80 (april 1, 2023): 44–57. 12 martin bruckner, “lessons in geography: maps, spellers, and other grammars of nationalism in the early republic,” american quarterly 51, no. 2 (1999): 311–43. 13 mark e frank, “national climate: zhu kezhen and the framing of the atmosphere in modern china,” history of science 62, no. 4 (december 1, 2024): 562–90. 14 guo qing. zhongguo qihou quhua fazhan yanjiu (1929–1966) [research on the development of climate regionalization in china (1929-1966)]. master’s thesis, university of science and technology of china, 2023. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 4 universalized these studies to reconcile uniqueness with global scientific norms, thereby enhancing national scientific standing; and (3) operationalized their research in dynamic, practical contexts aligned with national needs, ultimately scientizing traditional perceptions of regions. the uniqueness of china and the right to climate classification in 1884, climatologist wladimir köppen proposed the first quantitative climate classification system.15 this classification system, along with its subsequent revisions, has been widely adopted in academic research. 16 from 1913 to 1918, zhu kezhen pursued meteorological studies at harvard university. by that time, the köppen classification method had already been incorporated into american geography and meteorology textbooks.17 to date, this system has remained the most widely utilized climate classification framework, maintaining its canonical status in numerous climatology textbooks worldwide.18 on a climate map of china classified according to köppen’s method, zhu kezhen found many discrepancies with his own understanding. for example, he observed that köppen’s cfa climate zone (c for temperate, f for uniform humidity throughout the year, a for the hottest month averaging above 22°c) was confined to a narrow coastal strip from fuzhou to shanghai19. zhu believed this zone should extend along the yangtze river into the chinese interior. however, doing so would divide the cwa climate zone (warm, dry winters) into two parts: the lower yellow river region (north china)20 and south china. in reality, there is a significant difference in precipitation and temperature between the lower yellow river region and south china. if these two regions were classified under the same climate zone, it would clearly not align with the actual observed climate conditions.21 here, zhu kezhen saw an opportunity to revise and improve the köppen climate classification. what gave zhu kezhen confidence was not abundant meteorological data; at the time, he had just proposed his own meteorological station network plan.22 his greatest reliance came from his cultural, historical, and geographical expertise. this was closely linked to a critical demarcation line: the qinling-huaihe line. chinese people over two millennia ago had already recognized the agricultural and cultural differences caused by the contrasting environments north and south of this line, as evident in the famous fable master yan mission to chu: the king looked at master yan and said: “do the people of qi enjoy stealing things?” master yan got up from his mat and responded: “i have heard it said that when an orange tree is planted 15 mark stephen monmonier, cartography in the twentieth century, the history of cartography, 6 1-2 (chicago: the university of chicago press, 2015), 227–29. 16 arthur a. wilcock, “köppen after fifty years,” annals of the association of american geographers 58, no. 1 (march 1, 1968): 12–28. 17 c. w. thornthwaite, “problems in the classification of climates,” geographical review 33, no. 2 (1943): 233–255. 18 michal belda et al., “climate classification revisited: from köppen to trewartha,” climate research 59, no. 1 (february 4, 2014): 1–13. 19 zhu kezhen, “zhongguo qihou quyu lun (climatic provinces of china),” dili zazhi(the geographical review), no. 2 (1930): 1–14. 20 this is the core region of north china; thus, it can also be used to denote north china in climate. see wang, e., q. yu, d. wu, et al. 2008. “climate, agricultural production and hydrological balance in the north china plain.” international journal of climatology: a journal of the royal meteorological society 28 (14): 1959–1970. 21 notwithstanding substantial climate changes over the past century, these regional disparities have persisted obvious both historically and at present, see qian, w., and y. zhu. 2001. “climate change in china from 1880 to 1998 and its impact on the environmental condition.” climatic change 50, no. 4 (201): 419–444. 22 zhu kezhen, “quan guo sheli qixiang cehou suo jihua shu” [a plan for establishing meteorological observation stations throughout the country], zhongguo qixiang xuehui huikan [journal of the chinese meteorological society], no. 4 (1928): 7– 10. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 5 south of the huai river it produces oranges as fruit, but if you transplant it north of the huai river, it produces bitter oranges. the leaves are the same, but the taste of the fruit is completely different. what is the reason for this? it is because the water and the soil are different. now a person who is born and brought up in qi would never think of stealing anything, but when they move to chu they become thieves. perhaps this is because the water and soil of chu makes people enjoy stealing things?” the king laughed and said: “it is impossible to play jokes upon a sage. i brought this humiliation on myself.”23 fig. 1. according to the köppen climate classification, parts of southern china and some northern regions are categorized under the same climate zone cwa. a small portion of the southeast is classified as cfa. zhu kezhen believed that the middle and lower reaches of the yangtze river should be classified as cfa. however, doing so would split the cwa zone into two separate parts.24 this fable has been widely disseminated in chinese culture, and its narrative of environmental differences across the huai river has gradually become a cultural trope. moreover, during periods of political fragmentation in chinese history, the qinling-huaihe line frequently served as the boundary between northern and southern regimes. southern regimes in particular emphasized the strategic importance of the huai river’s defence, leading to the maxim: “[t]he key to defending the yangtze is holding the huai”25 in 1924, zhang xiangwen (张相文), the first president of the chinese science society, explicitly identified the qinling-huaihe line as china’s north-south divide from a geographical classification perspective. 26 however, his rationale was rather tenuous—a 23 milburn, o. the spring and autumn annals of master yan. brill, 2015, 349–50. 24 zhu, “zhongguo qihou quyu lun.” 25 han maoli. dadi zhongguo [the land of china], (wenhui publishing house, 2023), 223–30. 26 shan zhiqiang. “nanbei fenjiexian shang de miwu” [the mist on the north-south divide]. zhongguo guojia dili [chinese national geography], no. 10 (2009): 34–51. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 6 tenuousness likely shaped by the longstanding cultural tropes. this cultural trope also influenced zhu kezhen. therefore, when zhu kezhen made the classification of climate, three very important principles were adopted: (a) classification schemata must maintain concise and unambiguous categorical definitions; (b) delineation boundaries should correspond to natural geographical boundaries within national regions; (c) within china’s cyclonic and anticyclonic systems, where meteorological impacts exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, climatic regionalization must prioritize this dynamic framework as the primary determinant.27 compared to the köppen method, the principles proposed by zhu kezhen cannot be considered quantitative or as empirically precise. however, in zhu’s view, they more closely approximated the actual climatic conditions of china. these principles are simple, and we can observe a response to the köppen method, especially in the second principle: that climatic classification should correspond to natural regions. zhu divided china into eight climatic regions, with each named after a specific region in china. for example, the southern region is termed the “middle china or yangtze river basin type,” while the northern region is referred to as the “northern china type.” the boundary between these two regions generally coincides with the qinling-huaihe line, which is traditionally recognized as the dividing line between the north and south in china. this was also the first time that this boundary had been explicitly depicted on a chinese climatic map. fig. 1. in zhu kezhen’s climate classification map, northern china is largely within a single climatic region, while southern china is also characterized by a relatively unified climatic region.28 zhu kezhen did not attempt to challenge the köppen classification method, but rather its outcomes. this constituted the core essence of zhu’s revision. mark frank argues that zhu integrated the köppen classification approach into a chinese climatic framework—a pivotal 27 zhu, “zhongguo qihou quyu lun.” 28 ibid. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 7 step in asserting that any climate classification should align with china’s actual climatic conditions.29 the interpretive authority over what constituted china’s climate, however, rested firmly in the hands of zhu and his colleagues. by the 1930s, zhu kezhen’s meteorological station network plan began yielding results, providing him with data for regional climate research. zhu sought to give scientific legitimacy to traditional cultural and geographical perceptions through such research. in 1934, while analysing drought conditions and causes in north china, he identified the qinling mountains as the natural boundary between the north china plain and the yangtze river basin. he further argued that, except in sichuan province, the qinling’s climatic role primarily regulated rainfall rather than temperature, making it a critical factor in the region’s scant precipitation.30 fig. 3. a map of rainfall in china, in which chinese climatologists use dark and light colours to clearly show the climate differences between northern and southern china.31 29 frank, “national climate.” 30 zhu kezhen and li liangqi. “huabei zhi ganhan ji qi qianyin houguo” [the drought in north china and its causes and consequences]. dili xuebao[acta geographica sinica] 1, no. 2 (1934): 98–109. 31 zhu et al., the chinese rainfall, 49. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 8 concurrently, rainfall studies in china reached a milestone in 1936 when the institute of meteorology at academia sinica, led by zhu, published the chinese rainfall.32 despite poor printing quality and blurry images, the qinling-huaihe line remained conspicuously visible. this graphical representation clearly reflected contemporary climatologists’ recognition of the line’s climatic significance. zhu kezhen and his colleagues’ work brought international recognition to the qinlinghuaihe line’s role as a major geographic divide. prominent geographers, including the famous american geographer and zhu’s close friend george babcock cressey (1896– 1963),33commented on the line’s climatic and cultural significance.34 as zhu himself noted: “[n]umerous scholars, both chinese and foreign, have studied the climatic disparities between north china and the yangtze river basin.”35 we must reiterate the mindset of chinese climatologists represented by zhu kezhen: even if they did not attempt to rival the classificatory power of köppen’s model, they believed their intimate familiarity with china granted them unique interpretive authority over its climate. 36 thus, they leveraged their strengths to ensure that any climate classification framework respected china’s indigenous climatic characteristics.37 this conviction would manifest in subsequent classification schemes, regardless of their theoretical underpinnings. in 1936, tu changwang (涂长望) and lu wu (卢鋈) claimed to have refined zhu kezhen’s climate regionalization scheme by dividing his climatic regions into 8 primary zones (first-order divisions) and 22 subzones (second-order divisions).38 interestingly, while they employed different criteria for regional demarcation, their results broadly aligned with zhu’s original classification, most notably retaining the iconic qinling-huaihe line. as colleagues of zhu, tu and lu effectively carried forward his climatological work during the decade following zhu’s assumption of zhejiang university’s presidency in 1936, significantly advancing the climate regionalization project. 32 zhu kezhen, tu changwang, and zhang baokun. zhongguo zhi yuliang [the chinese rainfall]. nanjing: guoli zhongyang yanjiuyuan qixiang yanjiusuo [institute of meteorology, academia sinica], 1936. http://read.nlc.cn/outopenbook/openobjectbook?aid=416&bid=8435.0. 33 theodore herman, “george babcock cressey, 1896–1963,” annals of the association of american geographers 55, no. 2 (june 1, 1965): 360–64. 34 cressey, george b. “the geographic regions of china.” the annals of the american academy of political and social science152, no. 1 (1930): 1–9. 35 zhu and li, “huabei zhi ganhan ji qi qianyin houguo,” 100. 36 zhu kezhen and lu wu . “zhongguo qihou zhi yaosu” [the climatic factors of china], dili xuebao [acta geographica sinica] 2, no. 1 (1935): 1–9. 37 grace yen shen, unearthing the nation: modern geology and nationalism in republican china (university of chicago press, 2014), 46. 38 tu changwang and lu wu, “zhongguo qihou quyu” [climatic provinces of china], qixiang zazhi [acta meteorologica sinica], no. 9 (1936): 487–518. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 9 fig. 4. the boundary between southern and northern china is consistently reflected in various climate classification systems.39 dialogue with global science zhu kezhen and his colleagues appeared to construct a vision of china’s climate distinct from global standards, insisting that any climate classification scheme must align with this localized understanding. such an approach risked rendering global climate classification systems irrelevant in china, potentially insulating the nation from international scientific discourse. this, however, was not their intention. on one hand, zhu was acutely aware that atmospheric circulation knows no national boundaries, even as he sought to imbue meteorology with nationalist significance.40 on the other hand, the chinese scientific community’s pursuit of localized climate science was fundamentally aimed at enhancing the nation’s scientific reputation and standing.41 in 1930, zhu kezhen exhorted his peers that scientific advancement could not rely solely on translating foreign works; it also required “speaking the chinese language,” meaning producing indigenous scientific contributions that would ultimately establish chinese as a global ‘lingua franca’ of science.42 disseminating knowledge of china’s 39 liu mingguang, ed., italicized: zhongguo ziran dili tuji [atlas of physical geography of china], 3rd ed. (beijing: zhongguo ditu chubanshe [china map press], may 2010),50. 40 zhu kezhen. “qingdao jieshou zhi qingxing” [the retrocession of qingdao: context and implications], shidi xuebao [journal of historical and geographical studies] 2, no. 2 (1923): 85–90. 41 ren, “fan taipingyang guoji xueshu huiyi de huigu.” 42 zhu kezhen, zhu kezhen quanji [the complete works of zhu kezhen], vol. 2 (shanghai: shanghai science and technology education press, 2004), 55. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 10 actual climatic conditions, he argued, should be an integral component of developing chinese climate science. in 1938, tu changwang and guo xiaolan (郭晓岚 ) published china’s climate regions according to the köppen paradigm.43 köppen’s steppe climate (bs) zone grouped areas from kulun (present-day ulaanbaatar, mongolia) in the north to zhengzhou in the south into a single unit, despite their vastly differing climates. to align china’s regional boundaries with the köppen system, the tu-guo scheme introduced the temperature-precipitation product (tr) as a criterion to subdivide the steppe zone into three smaller regions: the north china plain, the loess plateau-qinghai highlands, and the mongolian steppe. for other boundaries, the scheme made adjustments where köppen’s system clashed with china’s geography, most notably shifting the cool (d) climate zone—originally extending deep into north china—to the rehe region. other revisions were relatively minor. in 1939, xu erhao (徐尔灏 ), a young faculty member at national central university, 44 published the climatic regions of china according to the köppen classification. 45 his revisionist approach resembled that of tu and guo, yet he focused on the humid and dry winter temperate zones previously identified by zhu kezhen. xu’s revisionist intensity surpassed the tu-guo scheme, a consequence of denser meteorological station coverage in temperate regions compared to arid zones. across these schemes, modifications to the köppen classification system were consistently observed, yet these adjustments remained confined to china’s specific context, thus leaving the core köppen framework intact. while the classifications appeared to be derived from köppen’s methodology, they in fact adapted the system to china’s unique climatic regions.46 given their china-centric starting point, these efforts can be interpreted as translating indigenous chinese climatic regionalization into the köppen framework. in tu’s paper, he pointed out that his purpose was to facilitate comparisons with the climatic characteristics of other regions around the world and to meet the needs of those familiar with chinese place names.47 clearly, this was an effort to globalize local scientific knowledge to present china’s “truth” to the world. such globalized practices still bear traces of nationalism. xu erhao expressed his nationalistic sentiments more directly. in the colonial context of the past, the temperate zone was considered the ideal environment for europeans to live and develop, carrying positive and affirmative evaluations.48 xu accepted this narrative and believed that the temperate zone, especially the warm temperate and humid regions, were where world civilization flourished the most. after his modifications, china was depicted as having vast warm temperate and 43 tu changwang and guo xiaolan, “koppen fanshi de zhongguo qihou quyu” [climatic regions of china according to köppen’s classification], qixiang zazhi [acta meteorologica sinica], no. 2 (1938): 51–6 44 it is necessary to introduce the relationship between the institute of meteorology, academia sinica, and the department of geography at national central university. before the japanese occupation of nanjing in 1937, the two institutions were located across the street from each other. researchers from the institute frequently taught courses and attended conferences at the university. xu erhao studied at national central university from 1934 to 1938, thus we can infer he maintained close professional relationships with figures like zhu kezhen and tu changwang. 45 xu erhao, “keben fenleifa zhi zhongguo qihou qu” [the climatic regions of china according to the köppen classification], kexue [science]23, no. 12 (1939): 728–46. 46 frank, “national climate.” 47 tu changwang and guo xiaolan, “koppen fanshi de zhongguo qihou quyu” (climatic regions of china according to köppen’s classification], qixiang zazhi [acta meteorologica sinica], no. 2 (1938): 51–6 48 deborah r. coen, “imperial climatographies from tyrol to turkestan,” osiris 26, no. 1 (january 2011): 47. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 11 humid zones, thus possessing the climatic conditions to stand as an equal with europe and the united states.49 such modifications convey xu’s nationalistic sentiment. he was once outraged by the expression of “independent manchukuo” in an atlas. eventually, he wrote a short essay beside it in the atlas to admonish himself not to forget the humiliation.50 however, such modifications could at most serve as a form of psychological comfort. therefore, like tu before him the target audience of his article was still people outside of china. in this way, he articulaled china’s strengths in a “scientific”51 context to provide a basis for enhancing the nation’s image and standing.52 in 1946, lu wu independently proposed his own climate regionalization scheme.53 he categorized china’s climate using two approaches: one global in scope (including china) and represented by köppen, and another focused exclusively on china, exemplified by zhu kezhen. regarding zhu and tu’s classifications, lu acknowledged their strengths in “aligning with natural and human regions,” yet criticized their lack of systematic criteria and inadequate scientific explanatory power. ultimately, lu tasked himself with synthesizing the merits of both methods to create a hybrid framework compatible with both. his methodological approach was to “primarily follow köppen’s system while adapting to local conditions.”54 lu wu’s approach appears paradoxical, not as a personal inconsistency, but as a collision of two divergent paradigms among chinese climatologists at the time. on one hand, they felt compelled to map china’s climate using köppen’s global framework; on the other, they sought to safeguard the nation’s distinct natural and human-geographic regions. here, lu’s work can be interpreted as either adapting köppen’s system within a chinese epistemological framework,55 or rearticulating china’s climatic identity through köppen’s terminology. thus, the climate regionalization work of this period cannot be reduced to a mere introduction and adaptation of foreign classification methods, but actually included multiple processes of translating and promoting local scientific knowledge. only through this path could the initially stated objective of fostering nationalist science be achieved. academic independence and national sovereignty following the founding of the people’s republic of china, the terminology of “climate regionalization” quickly supplanted that of “climate classification,” signalling a shift in the function of climatic regionalization. in terms of identity and roles, chinese climatologists transitioned from advancing national status through scientific development to more direct engagement in state governance. 49 xu, “keben fenleifa zhi zhongguo qihou qu.” 50 yang zun, ed., xu erhao jinian wenji [xu erhao memorial volume] (nanjing: nanjing normal university press, 2000), xi (preface). 51 if xu were a geographical determinist, he would consider this scientific—though of course the theory has undergone significant revisions today，see：anatolii pavlovich getman et al., “geographical determinism: history and present,” revista notas históricas y geográficas, november 17, 2023, 303–18. 52 stephen frenkel, “geography, empire, and environmental determinism,” geographical review 82, no. 2 (1992): 143–53. 53 lu wu, “zhongguo qihou quyu xinlun” [new study on china's climatic regionalization], dili xuebao [acta geographica sinica] (1946): 1–10 54 indeed, lu himself was a participant in this classification a decade earlier，see tu and lu , “climatic provinces of china”. 55 frank, “national climate.” history of meteorology 12 (2025) 12 the 1956 publication of the draft of china’s natural regionalization stated: “the purpose of this draft is to divide regions, not zones... different objectives can lead to different results in regional division.”56 the goal of climatic regionalization is to provide reference materials for production and construction departments such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, rural side-line production,57 and mining.58 however, the chinese government of the time was dissatisfied with this draft, desiring a climate regionalization scheme more directly aligned with their imperatives for economic development. in 1956, china formulated a 12-year plan to stimulate development in its outline of the long-term plan for scientific and technological development (1956-1967).59 the ranking of various fields in this plan reflects the government’s national priorities. the plan proposed thirteen major areas and fifty-seven important tasks. the first area was natural conditions and natural resources, with the first task being the natural regionalization of china and economic planning. in addition to this, there were five tasks requiring surveys of natural resources. state-organized natural resource surveys in china had begun as early as 1951. in 1955, the chinese academy of sciences (cas) established the committee for comprehensive survey of natural resources, with zhu kezhen serving as its director. half of the committee members were cas researchers, many of whom were cas academics, while the other half consisted of deputy leaders from natural resource-related national ministries.60 during the 1950s and 1960s, the committee organized nationwide large-scale comprehensive natural resource surveys. 61 the 12-year plan imposed clearer requirements on the committee’s mandate: to accept leadership from the state planning commission, undertake national tasks, conduct natural regionalization, and propose rational allocation of productive forces.62 during this period, regionalization efforts began to exhibit characteristics of maoist science, where scientific tasks became aligned with political objectives, and science itself emerged as a tool for social revolution. 63 while this alignment was partially driven by scientists’ proactive engagement,64 subsequent research will demonstrate that just as scientists leveraged their activities to advance state-building, they could also pursue their own disciplinary goals through national construction and political processes. 56 editorial department of the records of chinese geography, zhongguo ziran quhua caoan [draft natural regionalization of china] (beijing: science press, n.d.), 1. 57 rural sideline production refers to the other production activities that agricultural producers engage in in addition to their main production activities. since 1993, the subdivision of sideline occupations has been cancelled, and the hunting of wild animals has been classified into animal husbandry, and the gathering of wild plants and commodity industry run by rural household have been included in farming. see national bureau of statistics of china, explanatory notes on main statistical indicators, 2022, https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2022/html/zbe12.pdf. 58 editorial department of the records of chinese geography, zhongguo ziran quhua caoan, 57. 59 department of innovation and development, ministry of science and technology, prc (eds), kexue jishu fazhan guihua gangyao [outline of the program for science and technology development] of the people’s republic of china (1956-2000) (scientific and technical documents press, 2018), 6. 60 zhang jiuchen. ziran ziyuan zonghe kaocha weiyuanhui yanjiu [study on the comprehensive survey committee of natural resources]. (beijing: science press, 2013),74-76. 61 sun honglie, cheng shengkui, and feng zhiming, “from integrated surveys of natural resources to comprehensive research of resources science over 60 years,” journal of natural resources 25, no. 9 (2010): 1414–23. 62 “historical evolution of the institute of geographic sciences and natural resources research, cas.” website of the institute of geographic sciences and natural resources research, cas. chinese academy of sciences, n.d. accessed [march 23，2025]. https://igsnrr.cas.cn/skjs/lsyg/. 63 sigrid schmalzer, red revolution, green revolution: scientific farming in socialist china (university of chicago press, 2016), 5. 64 ibid., 28. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 13 during the 1950s, china was undergoing a fervent movement to emulate the soviet union, and these above-mentioned undertakings were characterized by extensive soviet involvement. in july 1952, v.t. zaychikov, deputy director of the institute of geography, ussr academy of sciences, visited china to discuss collaborative compilation on the geography of china with chinese scholars. 65 at zaychikov’s suggestion, the chinese academy of sciences established the editorial board for the geographical annals of china, marking the start of china’s natural regionalization efforts. in april 1955, a soviet scientific expedition led by innokenty petrovich gerasimov arrived in china. during exchanges, gerasimov criticized the natural regionalization section of the geographical annals of china for lacking proper theoretical guidance and singled out the climate regionalization maps as poorly executed and subservient to other regionalization frameworks.66 in 1956, under the guidance of soviet experts, the geography component of the 12-year plan was finalized, directing geographers to complete tasks accordingly. led by the soviet geographer ivan vasilyevich samoylov (самойлов，иван васильевич)—who would, in the years that followed, emerge as the leading figure among soviet geographers working in china—more than fifty soviet scientists provided direct or indirect guidance to china’s natural regionalization.67 by late 1958, after completing all components of the natural regionalization plan, chinese scholars translated the scheme and its explanatory notes into russian and sent them to the soviet union. the ussr responded with a 150,000-character written critique and dispatched a specialized expert group to china to provide feedback. the soviet delegation engaged chinese scholars in discussions spanning 17 issues, including the objectives of regionalization, zonal vs. non-zonal related problems, and methodological procedures. 68 regarding climate regionalization specifically, the soviet side convened 20 meteorologists from kiev, moscow, leningrad, and voronezh for deliberations and organized subgroup discussions at institutions such as the central geophysical institute and the meteorological group of the institute of geography.69 amid these controversies, both eyewitnesses and zhu kezhen’s biographers have concurred that the subtropical zone issue was a significant disagreement between sino-soviet climatologists at the time. the subtropical zone issue perplexed chinese scientists from the outset. as an imported concept, at the time its international definition remained ambiguous, as it inherently denoted regions ill-fitted to either temperate or tropical classifications.70 in addressing this, chinese climatologists chose to maintain continuity with previous approaches: on one hand, they downplayed foreign-defined subtropical boundaries within china, asserting superior access to localized data; on the other, they refrained from deviating excessively from the general concept to ensure acceptance by international peers.71 65 zhu kezhen, zhu kezhen quanji [the complete works of zhu kezhen], vol. 13 (shanghai: shanghai science and technology education press, 2007), 659-661. 66 zhu kezhen, zhu kezhen quanji [the complete works of zhu kezhen], vol. 14 (shanghai: shanghai science and technology education press, 2008), 118. 67 working committee of natural regionalization, cas, zhongguo qihou quhua chugao[climatic regionalization of china (preliminary draft)] (beijing: science press, 1959), ii. 68 soviet experts, “comments and summary on the ‘draft comprehensive physical regionalization of china’,” dili xuebao [acta geographica sinica] 25, no. 3 (1959): 240–247. 69 kezhen, zhu kezhen quanji [the complete works of zhu kezhen], 2008, 14:505，510. 70 “subtropics glossary of meteorology,” accessed april 2, 2025, https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/subtropics. 71 huang bingwei. “zhu kezhen tongzhi yu woguo redai he hainan dao de kexue yanjiu (yi) woguo redai、yaredai jiexian wenti” [mr. zhu kezhen and china’s tropical and hainan island scientific research (part 1): the issue of china’s tropical and subtropical boundaries]. dili yanjiu (geographical research) 1, no. 1 (1984): 8–18. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 14 the extensive involvement of soviet experts introduced unforeseen complications. soviet scientists’ theoretical frameworks ceased to be passive tools awaiting chinese modification and instead became proactive agents shaping china’s climate regionalization process. chinese climatologists could no longer afford to first establish domestic consensus on subtropical boundaries before applying foreign systems—as they had with köppen’s classification—but were now compelled into a dynamic, real-time negotiation with soviet science. zhu kezhen’s diaries contain extensive records of this period. at that time, the soviet union had climate classification systems such as those developed by berg, alisov, and selyaninov, with alisov’s classification being the most representative. unlike köppen, alisov attempted to classify climates based on the movement of air masses, a tradition adopted from dynamic climatology.72 in alisov’s climate classification, north china, northeast china, and southern xinjiang were categorized as subtropical regions.73 nevertheless, these areas are currently classified as temperate zones. take northeast china, for instance; it is well-known for its snowy winters and fertile black soil, which clearly do not match the characteristics of a subtropical climate. in 1956, the soviet experts who had just arrived in china exhibited a rather assertive stance, indicating that the boundary of the subtropical zone in china should conform to the soviet union’s will. 74 perhaps unsurprising given that samoylov, the representative figure guiding china’s natural regionalization, was a colleague of alisov’s at moscow state university. huang bingwei(黄秉维), zhu kezhen’s deputy, described the intellectual confusion of the time, noting that many chinese scholars adhered to soviet scientists’ viewpoints and even advanced more persuasive indicators and phenomenological justifications than their soviet counterparts.75 large-scale natural resource surveys provided chinese academics with preliminary evidence, and accumulating climatic data suggested those regions should be classified as temperate zones.76 additionally, after conducting on-the-ground surveys in china, some soviet experts working in the country began to shift or soften their previously rigid positions.77 some soviet experts even expressed excitement at encountering tropical and subtropical regions for the first time.78 this reinforced chinese scientists’ conviction that they possessed a superior understanding of china’s climatic realities compared to foreign authorities, whether köppen or alisov. china’s climate regionalization also followed an implicit trajectory: translating locally specific research into universal scientific language rather than resorting to protectionist adjustments. alisov’s classification, based on air mass dynamics, could not be persuaded by socalled “chinese climatic realities”.79 meanwhile, by the late 1950s, sino-soviet tensions 72 boris pavlovich alisov (борис павлович алисов), klimaticheskie oblasti zarubezhnykh stran [климатические области зарубежных стран; climatic regions of foreign countries] (moscow: gos. izd-vo geogr. lit [гос. изд-во геогр. лит], 1950), 37. 73 ibid., 79, 91. 74 zhu, zhu kezhen quanji, 14: 374-375. 75 huang. “zhu kezhen tongzhi yu woguo redai” 9. 76 zhu kezhen, zhu kezhen quanji [the complete works of zhu kezhen], vol. 3 (shanghai: shanghai science and technology education press, 2004), 420-429. 77 zhu kezhen, zhu kezhen quanji [the complete works of zhu kezhen], vol. 15 (shanghai: shanghai science and technology education press, 2008), 62-63. 78 zhu, zhu kezhen quanji, 15:62–63. 79 huang. “zhu kezhen tongzhi yu woguo redai,”12-13. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 15 emerged. accepting soviet subtropical boundaries would have directly impacted china’s agricultural restructuring, imbuing chinese scientists’ actions with additional political significance. this necessitated chinese climatologists’ entry into the previously unfamiliar field of dynamic climatology. fortuitously, chinese climatologists identified errors in alisov’s dynamic classification through their analysis of the east asian subtropical highs and westerlies.80 after synthesizing evidence from multiple disciplines, zhu kezhen definitively settled the debate with his landmark paper “subtropics of china.”81 notably, the boundary between the subtropical and temperate zones eventually chosen by chinese scientists is still the well-known qinling-huaihe line. this boundary also closely aligns with the universally defined northern limit of the subtropical zone today.82 in the climatic regionalization of china (preliminary draft), this line has profound scientific meaning: it is advisable to use the accumulated temperature of 4500°c during the warm season (period with daily mean temperature ≥10℃) and the 0°c isotherm for the coldest pentad as boundaries. this line also corresponds to other climatic thresholds: a frost-free period of approximately 240 days, an aridity index of 1 (precipitation equivalent to evapotranspiration), and an annual precipitation of 750 mm. geographically, this boundary lies at roughly 34°n, coinciding with the southern limit frequently influenced by the summer polar front, the southern edge of the upper-level westerly circulation during midsummer, and the southern margin of the typical eastwest path of mid-path anticyclones.77 gone are the simplistic rationales of 30 years ago: the qinling-huaihe line is the dividing line between north and south, so it should be a climate regionalization boundary. today, this represents the most significant boundary in chinese geography, one that every middle school student is required to understand. in this sense, chinese scientists have achieved academic independence on two levels: one in using academic independence to bolster national sovereignty; the other in interpreting existing cultural and geographical understandings through universal scientific discourse. conclusion the case of china’s climate regionalization presents intriguing dynamics. early twentieth-century chinese scientists adopted the development of “local science” as a strategy for a nation that was a relative latecomer to science. natural geographic knowledge with deep indigenous roots, such as climate regionalization, became the focus of this strategy. national psychology served as the impetus for scientific development, while national culture provided its nourishment. thus, chinese climatologists sought to reconcile köppen’s universalist framework with china’s distinct climatic and cultural regions, creating hybrid systems that ‘spoke chinese’ scientifically. however, the goal of developing local science remained to elevate china’s scientific standing globally, ensuring chinese science would be recognized internationally. thus, we observe that chinese climatologists have consistently demonstrated a general tendency—most notably by reinterpreting traditional boundaries through scientific lenses— endowing them with rich significance. this necessitated a dual task: explaining china through 80 staff members of the section of synoptic and dynamic meteorology, institute of geophysics and meteorology, academia sinica, peking, “on the general circulation over eastern asia (i),” tellus 9, no. 4 (1957): 432–46. 81 zhu kezhen, “zhongguo de yaredai[subtropics of china],” kexue tongbao, no. 17 (1958): 524–28. 82 “subtropics glossary of meteorology.” history of meteorology 12 (2025) 16 globally dominant scientific languages while simultaneously preserving its uniqueness. through this process, chinese climatology also began to mature and achieve autonomy. climate regionalization represents a successful case, with its achievements closely tied to scientists’ unique educational backgrounds. most, possessed dual training in traditional cultural education and natural sciences, enabling them to draw insights from classical texts.83 this approach was frequently adopted in the early development of certain chinese disciplines, leading to a peculiar phenomenon: while historians debated the use of archives of nature versus social society,84 scientists of that era transcended such limitations. this successful case also invites reflection: what role have unsuccessful or non-universalized natural-cultural concepts played in the history of chinese science? acknowledgements this article extends my master’s thesis research. i am grateful to my ma advisor, associate professor banghong fu, who encouraged me to continue advancing my work on the relationship between meteorology and nation-building. i also thank the archives of the china meteorological administration and the zhejiang provincial archives, whose collections provided the most valuable sources for this article. during peer review, the reviewers and editors offered many constructive comments on both structure and language; as an early-career, non-native english-speaking researcher, i have benefited greatly from their guidance. 83 in china, they are called "jing shi zi zu", which means classics, histories, philosophers and anthologies. 84 fiona williamson, “the ‘cultural turn’ of climate history: an emerging field for studies of china and east asia,” wires climate change 11, no. 3 (may 2020): e635. microsoft word hom3vogel.doc history of meteorology 5 (2009) 23 bibliography of recent literature in the history of meteorology twenty six years, 1983-2008 brant vogel papers of john jay columbia university the following is a bibliography of recent secondary literature in the history of meteorology, broadly conceived. it is presented in chronological order a) to illustrate the growth of history of meteorology as field in the throes of self-definition, and b) because an artificial schema, whether based on subject, region, period, or discipline, would fail in the face of the diversity of the materials represented. it is intended as a tool for students entering the field, a refresher for those already in it, and a reference for historians in other fields.1 history of the project the bibliography project began in november 2003 at the history of science society annual meeting in cambridge, ma. james fleming2 organized a session and a subsequent wildcat dinner for ichm members. at the session, and afterwards, fleming told me that the iuhps had requested that its commissions produce bibliographies for the world history of science online project. i offered that i had already compiled a fairly large bibliographic database while completing my dissertation.3 because of what i found to be the paucity of literature in the historiography of meteorology when i started my dissertation research, i had gathered everything i could find. fleming suggested making a more formal project of it. as there were other bibliographic resources for older material, we decided that twenty years of recent historiography would be the most useful. the following year i presented a poster (figure 1) describing the project at the ichm meeting in poling, at which time the raw database had grown to over 700 titles. afterwards, as i pursued my own research interests, the database sat on the back burner, but continued to grow in size and scope, with contributions by fleming and others, and occasional bursts of bibliographic work of my own. we discussed the state of the project at the 2008 pittsburgh hss meeting. at a thousand titles covering 25 years, it was time to stop. the field had grown to the 1 the author would also gladly share the raw data. contact bmv2108@columbia.edu. special thanks are due to the members of ichm and the anonymous reviewers of this bibliography for contributing sage advice, translations, and hundreds of additional references. vogel, bibliography of recent literature in meteorology 24 point where keeping up with things was too much work for one person, and where the end product, a traditional bibliography, would be soon superseded by electronic formats. another year’s work, and additional help coming from roger turner’s announcement on the ichm website, brought the bibliography to nearly 1600 titles, covering a twenty-six-year time span. scope the initial choice of twenty years as a span for the project was in some sense natural. twenty is a round number, and representative of what we conceive of as “recent.” fleming and roy e. goodman had recovered the historiography of meteorology prior to the twentieth century,4 but the largest english-language bibliography on more recent work in the field was brush and landsberg’s 1985 work, which contained the historiography of meteorology and geophysics to that point in one volume.5 recent work had not been covered. the third reason is more historiographical. the early 1980s saw the field of meteorology expanding in the us. it was a notably neglected field within the history of science, which now saw new people coming in from the fields of science, history, and literary studies. earlier historiography was sparse (for examples of what was available, see hessenbruch’s readers’ guide to the history of science (2000)).6 in 1977, h. howard frisinger was able to write a modest-sized monograph covering meteorology from pre-history to 1800.7 in 1983, people such as theodore feldman were writing about fiftyyear periods,8 representing greater specialization within history of science, and scholars such as arden reed were opening up the cultural context from outside the field.9 similar developments were likewise happening throughout the scholarly world. as for the other extreme of the scope, indecision whether to produce something in print, or something entirely electronic, left the project in limbo, even as the data accumulated. the decision to terminate the collection at twenty five years resulted in the actual cessation at twenty six. the closer to publication date the better. selection 2 author of the forthcoming fixing the sky: the checkered history of weather and climate control (columbia university press, 2010), and founding editor of history of meteorology. 3 brant vogel, "weather prediction in early modern england" (dissertation, emory university, 2002). 4 james rodger fleming and roy e. goodman, eds., international bibliography of meteorology: from the beginning of printing to 1889: four volumes in one: temperature, moisture, winds, storms / edited by james rodger fleming & roy e goodman (upland, pa.: diane pub. co.,1994), james rodger (with simone l. kaplan) fleming, "historical writing on meteorology: an annotated bibliography," in historical essays on meteorology, 1919-1995, ed. james rodger fleming (boston: american meteorological society, 1996), roy e. goodman, "archives, libraries and bibliography in the history of meteorology prior to 1900," history of meteorology 1 (2004). 5 stephen g. brush, helmut e. landsberg, and martin j. collins, the history of geophysics and meteorology: an annotated bibliography (new york: garland, 1985). 6 katharine anderson, "meteorology," in reader's guide to the history of meteorology, ed. arne hessenbruch (london & new york: fitzroy dearborn, 2000), brant vogel, "meteorological instruments," in reader's guide to the history of science, ed. arne hessenbruch (london & chicago: fitzroy dearborn, 2000). 7 h. howard frisinger, the history of meteorology, to 1800, 2nd printing. ed. (boston, mass.: american meteorological society, 1983). 8 theodore sherman feldman, "the history of meteorology, 1750-1800: a study in the quantification of experimental physics" (dissertation, university of california at berkeley, 1983). 9 arden reed, romantic weather: the climates of coleridge and baudelaire (hanover and london: up of new england, 1983). history of meteorology 5 (2009) 25 the selections for this bibliography are idiosyncratic. it comes from diverse sources, and most of it depends on the cataloging of countless others. therefore this is not an annotated, or even digested, list. it contains mostly scholarly works, but not all from the field of history. some textbooks have been included, educational materials, television programs, popular works, self-published works, data sets, and collections of photos. i tried to make my best estimate of whether a given item might contain some historical work (of whatever quality or political bent) useful to the scholar. the definition of ‘meteorology’ was also somewhat amorphous. i included an account of a discussion of earthquakes if the period was before the eighteenth century; i would accept rainbows if still within the aristotelian or cartesian understandings of meteorology. many particular topics diverged from the meteorological discourse which nevertheless should be included for these earlier periods. astrology, so long as it concerns astrometeorology, is another such area. climate, which was distinct from meteorology, is another case altogether. it came to converge with meteorology in the modern era. because of its close relationship to meteorology at present, and because of contemporary concerns which are a large part of why the history of meteorology has grown as it has, titles which would have been more properly categorized under history of climatology are also included. environmental history, likewise, is another such field. certain titles verge on being primary rather than secondary. these are usually synthetic reports of meteorological data that nevertheless present historical information about data sources that, of necessity, recount the circumstances of the data gathering. electronic publishing has become pervasive in the period covered by the bibliography. but when an item is available in more than one medium, i have listed the print edition as the primary citation. “permanent urls” have yet to have proven their perminance, and the library catalogs of most universities will suggest the electronic alternatives. finally, there are many entries in languages i do not read (and more in those i don’t read well).10 i put a certain faith in my sources, and in my ability to trace the authors within their scholarly networks. this is an international project, and i searched as widely as possible. analysis the historiography of meteorology, and the more general interest in meteorology, weather, and climate, seem to have expanded exponentially in recent years. figure 2, which represents the number of titles in the bibliography arranged by year, would support this intuition. i think this rapid growth does represent such interest. however, there are several other factors, including the general expanse of academic publishing as a whole, the growth of new media, and the founding of institutions such as ichm and the journal history of meteorology, with the accompanying individuation of history of meteorology, which also play into it. besides the expanding of academic publishing and media, the topicality of climate concerns, in particular, has been a significant external influence, just as it has, no doubt, brought many into the field. 10 n.b.: there will also be many orthographic inconsistancies in non-english titles due to the limitations of usauthored bibliographic software. vogel, bibliography of recent literature in meteorology 26 figure 1: poster from ichm 2004, poling history of meteorology 5 (2009) 27 titles in the history of meteorology, 1983-2008 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year t it le s figure 2: distribution of publication vogel, bibliography of recent literature in meteorology 28 chronological bibliography 1983 bernhardt, karl-heinz. "zum 100. jahrestag der gründung der ehemaligen deutschen meteorologischen gesellschaft." z. meteorol. 33, (1983): 373-74. drake, ellen t., and paul d. komar. "speculations about the earth: the role of robert hooke and others in the 17th century." earth sci. hist. 2, (1983): 11-16. engelen, a. f. v. van, harry geurts, and petrus van musschenbroek. vooruitstrevende ideeën over de meteorologie en klimatologie van petrus van musschenbroek (1692-1761). de bilt: koninklijk nederlands meteorologisch instituut, 1983. feldman, theodore sherman. "the history of meteorology, 1750-1800: a study in the quantification of experimental physics." dissertation, university of california at berkeley, 1983. frisinger, h. howard. the history of meteorology, to 1800. 2nd printing. ed. boston, mass.: american meteorological society, 1983. geurts, harry, and a. f. v. van engelen. geschiedenis van weerkundige waarnemingen in het bijzonder in nederland vóór de oprichting van het k.n.m.i. de bilt: koninklijk nederlands meteorologisch instituut, 1983. gisler, othmar. die meteorologischen beobachtungen von schaffhausen (1794-1845) und zürich (1767-1802): nebst einigen betrachtungen über historische niederschlagsreihen. zürich: universität zürich-irchel geographisches institut, 1983. hall, a. rupert. the revolution in science, 1500-1750. london: longman, 1983. hong, shinian, and wenyan chen. zhongguo qi xiang shi (a history of chinese meteorology). di 1 ban. ed. beijing: nong ye chu ban she xin hua shu dian beijing fa xing suo fa xing, 1983. isachenko, i. "ekonomicheskaia effektivnost' primeneniia kosmicheskoi tekhniki (obzor zarubezhnoi pechati) / a review of foreign literature on the economic efficiency of the implementation of space technology." voprosy ekonomiki no. 3 (1983): 117-25. jenks, stuart. "astrometeorology in the middle ages." isis 74, (1983): 185-210. jones, jean. "james hutton: exploration and oceanography." annals of science 40, no. 1 (1983): 81-94. joyce, j. r. "the r.a.a.f. meteorological service (d.met.s.) 1939-1945." journal of the royal australian historical society 69, no. 1 (1983): 63-71. karl, thomas, laura k. metcalf, m. lawrence nicodemus, and robert g. quayle. statewide average climatic history [all states], 1884-1982. asheville, n.c.: national oceanic and atmospheric administration national environmental satellite data and information service national climatic data center, 1983. klemm, fritz. die entwicklung der meteorologischen beobachtungen in österreich einschliesslich böhmen und mähren bis zum jahr 1700. offenbach am main: im selbstverlag des deutschen wetterdienstes, 1983. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 29 kuibysheva, k. s., and n. i. safonova. "o nauchnom nasledii dekabrista p. i. borisova / scholarly legacy of the decembrist p. i. borisov." voprosy istorii estestvoznaniia i tekhniki no. 2 (1983): 126-31. reed, arden. romantic weather: the climates of coleridge and baudelaire. hanover and london: up of new england, 1983. riley, james c. "the medicine of the environment in eighteenth-century germany." clio medica 18, (1983): 167-78. selinger, franz, and alexander glen. "arctic meteorological operations and counter-operations during world war ii." polar record [great britain] 21, no. 135 (1983): 559-67. tamura, sennosuke. ri chosen kishogakushi kenkyu. mishima-shi: mishima kagakushi kenkyujo, 1983. 1984 "a climate symposium in honor of professor rhodes w. fairbridge: history, periodicity, predictability: abstracts: barnard college, columbia university, new york city, may 2123, 1984." new york, 1984. aristotle, and jonathan barnes. the complete works of aristotle: the revised oxford translation. princeton, n.j.: princeton university press, 1984. bernhardt, karl-heinz. "alexander von humboldts auffassung vom klima und sein beitrag zur errichtung von meteorologischen stationsnetzen." z. meteorol. 34, (1984): 213-17. bernhardt, karl-heinz."100 jahre aerologische diagrammpapiere." z. meteorol. 34, (1984): 370-74. "big farewell for lynn mitchell." weather news no. 268 (1984). bozzolato, giampiero. giuseppe toaldo: uno scienziato europeo nell settecento veneto, centro internazionale di storia dello spazio e del tempo, saggi 2. brugine: edizioni 1 + 1, 1984. brutsaert, wilfried. evaporation into the atmosphere: theory, history, and application. repr. with corr. ed. dordrect, holland: boston, 1984. byrkit, james w. "a dedication to the memory of ronald l. ives, 1909-1982." arizona and the west 26, no. 2 (1984): 102-06. canadian climate centre. "canadian meteorological history = histoire de la météorologie au canada." no. 1-; v.; 28 cm. downsview, ont.: canadian climate centre atmospheric environment service, 1984. climate, weather, & people. madison, wi: hawkhill associates, 1984. filmstrips and sound cassettes. dallal, ahmad. "al-biruni on climates." arch. int. hist. sci 34, (1984): 3-18. davis, john l. "weather forecasting and the development of meteorological theory at the paris observatory, 1853-1878." annals of science [great britain] 41, no. 4 (1984): 359-82. vogel, bibliography of recent literature in meteorology 30 deutscher wetterdienst. agrarmeteorologische beratungsund forschungsstelle geisenheim: 100 jahre agrarmeteorologie offenbach a.m.: deutscher wetterdienst zentralamt, 1984. dzhavadova, e. iu, and g. d. dzhavadov. "narodnyi zemledel'cheskii kalendar' i meteorologiia azerbaidzhantsev v xix-nachale xx v / the folk agricultural calendar and meteorology of the azerbaijanis in the 19th and early 20th centuries." sovetskaia etnografiia [ussr] no. 3 (1984): 128-34. elder, d. william light's brief journal and australian diaries. adelaide: stock journal publishers, 1984. epstein, julia l., and mark l. greenberg. "decomposing newton's rainbow." journal of the history of ideas 45, no. 1 (1984): 115-40. freitag, ruth s., comp. halley's comet: a bibliography. washington: library of congress, 1984. galison, peter. "descarte's comparisons: from the invisible to the visible." isis 75, (1984): 31126. galtier, charles. météorologie populaire dans la france ancienne: la provence, empire du soleil et royaume des vents. le coteau: editions horvath, 1984. huhehaote shi di fang zhi bian xiu ban gong shi huhehaote shi qi xiang guan li ke. huhehaote qi xiang zhi: zheng qiu yi jian gao huhehaote: huhehaote shi di fang zhi bian xiu ban gong shi huhehaote shi qi xiang guan li ke, 1984. jewell, ralph. "the meteorological judgment of vilhelm bjerknes." social research 51, no. 3 (1984): 783-807. larus, joel. "india claims a role in antarctica." round table [great britain] no. 289 (1984): 45-56. macrakis, kristie. "alfred wegener: self-proclaimed scientific revolutionary." arch. int. hist. sci. 34, (1984): 163-76. norton, stephen a. proceedings of a workshop on paleolimological studies of the history and effects of acid precipitation: held on may 23-25, 1984, samoset hotel, rockland, maine. washington, d.c.?: environmental protection agency, 1984. panzram, heinz. "klimaforschung als intellektuelles vergnügen: hundert jahre deutsche meteorologische gesellschaft." naturwiss. rundsch. 37, (1984): 395-98. schröder, wilfried. das phänomen des polarlichts: geschichtsschreibung, forschungsergebnisse und probleme. 218 ed, erträge der forschung. darmstadt: wissenschaftliche buchgesellschaft, 1984. sezgin, fuat. "the meteorology of theophrastus. (in arabic.)." z. gesch. arab.islam wiss. 1, (1984): arabic section. sheynin, o.b. "on the history of the statistical method in meteorology." archive for history of exact sciences 31, (1984): 53-95. thomas, morley k. canadian participation in world meteorological organization sessions, 1951-1983: congress, executive council, regional association iv, and technical commissions. downsview, ont.: canadian climate centre atmospheric environment service, history of meteorology 5 (2009) 31 1984. ———. pre-confederation climate data. downsview, ont.: canadian climate centre atmospheric environment service, 1984. university of birmingham; meterological services unit. a history of meteorology in birmingham from 1840. birmingham: meteorological services unit, university of birmingham, 1984. 1985 banfield, edwin. barometers. trowbridge, wiltshire: baros books, 1985. broughton, peter. "the first predicted return of comet halley." journal for the history of astronomy [great britain] 16, no. 2 (1985): 123-33. brown, richard maxwell. "the enduring frontier: the impact of weather on south dakota history and literature." south dakota history 15, no. 1-2 (1985): 26-57. brush, stephen g., helmut e. landsberg, and martin j. collins. the history of geophysics and meteorology: an annotated bibliography. new york: garland, 1985. cassidy, david c. "meteorology in mannheim: the palatine meteorological society, 17801795." sudhoffi archiv: zeitschrift für wissenschaftsgeschichte 69, (1985): 8-25. comité international pour la métrologie historique. acta metrologiae historicae: travaux du iii. conf author(s): medunarodni kongres za povijesnu metrologiju (3rd: 1983: linz, austria). linz: rudolf trauner, 1985. damiens, jacques. sources d'information en météorologie et disciplines connexes: livres anciens 15e-18e siècles / par jacques damiens, lise dumoulin, jean hatchadour. boulogne-billancourt [france]: ministère de l'urbanisme, du logenment et des transports, 1985. defrise, p. "sur l'histoire de la météorologie." meded. kon. acad. wetensch. lett. sch. kunst. belgie kl. wetensch. 47, no. 1 (1985): 49-67. engelen, a. f. v. van, and harry geurts. nicolaus cruquius (1678-1754) and his meteorological observations. de bilt: koninklijk nederlands meteorologisch instituut, 1985. falck-ytter, harald. aurora: the northern lights in mythology, history, and science. photographs by torbjorn lovgren. edinburgh/spring valley, n.y.: floris books/anthroposophic press, 1985. feldman, theodore s. "applied mathematics and the quantification of physics: the case of barometric hypsometry." historical studies in the physical sciences 15, no. 2 (1985): 127-97. garcía de pedraza, lorenzo, josé mario giménez de la cuadra, and instituto nacional de meteorología. notas para la historia de la meteorología en españa. madrid: ministerio de transportes turismo y comunicaciones, 1985. giroux, jacqueline. "la météorologie à travers textes et publications du xviiie siècle à dijon." mem. acad. sci. arts belles-lett. dijon, 1983-84 126, (1985): 243-59. vogel, bibliography of recent literature in meteorology 32 goddard, dick. "six inches of partly cloudy." inland seas 41, no. 4 (1985): 244-54. hersé, michel. "les nuits claires." hist. nat. 26/27, (1985): 85-108. hong, shinian, and wenyan chen. zhongguo qi xiang shi. chu ban. ed. taibei shi: ming wen shu ju, 1985. hopper, j. f. "early meteorological observations at fort enterprise, northwest territories, canada." polar record [great britain] 22, no. 141 (1985): 684-91. ibn ‘asim, ‘abd allah ibn husayn d, and fuat sezgin. kitab al-anwa’ wa-al-azminah wama‘rifat a‘yan al-kawakib. frankfurt: ma‘had tarikh al-‘ulum al-‘arabiyah wa-alislamiyah fi itar jami‘at frankfurt, 1985. ito, yushi. "earth science in the scientific revolution, 1600-1728." dissertation, university of melbourne, 1985. jervis, jane l. cometary theory in fifteenth-century europe. warsaw: polish acad. of sci., 1985. king-hele, desmond g. "the earth's atmosphere: ideas old and new." quart. j. roy. astron. soc. 26, (1985): 237-61. kwan, e. living in south australia: a social history pre 1836 to 19141985. layland, charles, and margaret layland. "weathervanes and country signs." pennsylvania folklife 34, no. 4 (1985): 18-20. olson, roberta j. m. fire and ice: a history of comets in art. new york: walker for national air & space museum, 1985. pejml, karel. poznámky k vývoji ceské meteorologie od nejstarších dob do roku 19191985. pfister, christian. climate-history data bank: climhist. bern, switzerland: meteotest, 1985. schechner genuth, sara j. "comets, teleology, and the relationship of chemistry to cosmology in newton's thought." annali dell'istituto e museo di storia della scienza di firenze [italy] 10, no. 2 (1985): 31-65. shapin, steven, and simon shaffer. leviathan and the air-pump: hobbes, boyle, and the experimental life. princeton: princeton up, 1985. sherbo, arthur. the english weather, 'the gentleman's magazine', and the brothers white1985. solmsen, friedrich. "citations in their bearing on the origin of "aristotle" meteorologica iv." hermes 113, no. 448459 (1985). syrett, david. "german meteorological intelligence from the arctic and the north atlantic, 1940-1945." mariner's mirror [great britain] 71, no. 3 (1985): 325-33. tooley, michael j., and gillian m. sheail, eds. the climatic scene. london: allen & unwin, 1985. weichold, arthur. wilhelm gotthelf lohrmann: lebensbild eines hervorragenden geodäten, topographen, astronomen, meteorologen und förderers der technik in wissenschaft und praxis in der ersten hälfte des 19. jahrhunderts. leipzig: barth, 1985. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 33 1986 australia, bureau of meteorology. "metarch papers ". melbourne: the bureau, 1986. bages, sylvie. "les questiones super tres libros metheororum aristotelis de jean buridan: étude suivie de l'édition du livre i." thesis, école nationale des chartes, paris, 1986. barr, william. "wettertrupp haudegen: the last german arctic weather station of world war ii." polar rec. 23, (1986): 143-57, 323-33. bates, charles c., and john f. fuller. america's weather warriors, 1814-1985. college station: texas a & m university press, 1986. bâzâc, gheorghe c. studii si cercetari. meteorologie. bucuresti: institutul de meteorologie si hidrologie, 1986. berman, mildred. "salem's physician-meteorologist: dr. edward a. holyoke." essex institute historical collections 122, no. 3 (1986): 237-45. bernhardt, karl-heinz. "alexander von humboldts bedeutung für die moderne meteorologie." akad. landwirtschaftswiss. ddr, tagungsjournal article no. 246 (1986): 15-19. blondeau, roger-a. "kometengeschiedenis van aristoteles tot halley [the history of comets: from aristotle to halley]." technologia [belgium] 9, no. 2 (1986): 118-32. burke, john g. cosmic debris. meteorites in history. berkeley: u of california p, 1986. burton, jim. "robert fitzroy and the early history of the meteorological office." british journal for the history of science [great britain] 19, no. 2 (1986): 147-76. cuesta domingo, mariano. "las islas galapagos en la dinamica del oceano pacifico (the galapagos islands in the dynamics of the pacific ocean)." revista de historia naval [spain] 4, no. 12 (1986): 5-36. de lisle, j. f. sails to satellites: a history of meteorology in new zealand. wellington, n.z.: new zealand meteorological service, 1986. dege, eckart. "wettertrupp haudegen: 40 years later." polar rec. 23, (1986): 337-40. finzi, roberto. le meteore e il frumento: clima, agricoltura, meteorologia a bologna nel '700. bologna: il mulino, 1986. gibbs, w. j. "john hogan (1896-1970) notes." metarch papers no. 2 (1986). hilfstein, erna. "copernicus and the 'third comet'." polish review 31, no. 4 (1986): 315316. koelsch, william a. "ben franklin's heir: alexander mcadie and the experimental analysis and forecasting of new england storms, 1884-1892." new england quarterly 59, no. 4 (1986): 523-43. kraght, peter e. airline weather services, 1931 to 1981: a history of the american airlines experience. mabank, tex.: peters books, 1986. lord, carnes. "on the early history of the aristotelian corpus." american journal of philology 107, no. 2 (1986): 137-61. lovász, györgy. "délnyugat-dunántúl hidrometeorológiai eroforrásai / hydrometeorological sources of southwest transdanubia." foldrajzi kozlemenyek 110, no. 1 (1986): 20-41. vogel, bibliography of recent literature in meteorology 34 maurins, a. "idei m. v. lomonosova v svete sovremennoi ekologii (m. lomonosov's ideas in the light of modern ecology)." latvijas psr zinatnu akademijas vestis [ussr] no. 10 (1986): 30-35. parsons, r. southern passages a maritime history of south australia: wakefield press, 1986. rappaport, rhoda. "hooke on earthquakes: lectures, strategy and audience." brit. j. hist. sci. 19, (1986): 129-46. reid, struan, and guy smith. invention & discovery. universal ed. london, england usborne pub.: tulsa okla., 1986. sureda obrador, vícenç. la climatologia. 1a ed. sant cugat del vallès: a. romero, 1986. united states, national archives and records administration; national archives trust fund board. the maury abstract logs, 1796-1861. washington: national archives trust fund board national archives and records administration, 1986. wands, john. "the theory of climate in the english renaissance and mundvs alter et idem." in proceedings of the 5th international congress of neo-latin studies, edited by i.d. mcfarlane, 519-29. binghamton, n.y.: medieval and renaissance texts and studies, 1986. zeller, suzanne e. "inventing canada: victorian inventory science and canadian nationbuilding, 1830-1880." dissertation, univ. of toronto 1986. 1987 adams, peter. field research on axel heiberg island, n.w.t., canada: bibliographies and data reports; with appendices of data from the mcgill subarctic research station, shefferville, p.q. sherbrooke, québec: centre for northern studies and research mcgill university, 1987. albis, victor s., and regino martinez chavanz. "las investigaciones meteorológicas de caldas." quipu 4, (1987): 413-32. armogathe, jean-robert "l'arc-en-ciel dans les météores." in le discours et sa méthode, edited by nicolas grimaldi and jean-luc marion, 145-62. paris: presses universitaires de france, 1987. atanasijevic, ivan. "milankovideva astronomska teorija klimatskih promena. (the milankovic astronomical theory of climatic variations.)." dijalektika 22, no. 3-4 (1987): 41-73. bernhardt, karl-heinz. "statistische auswertung von journal articleen über bemerkenswerte witterungsereignisse seit dem jahre 1000 (zusammen mit c. mäder)." z. meteorol. 37, (1987): 120-30. butzer, paul l. "dirichlet and his role in the founding of mathematical physics." arch int hist. sci. 37, (1987): 49-82. chambers, hugh, jorge booth, kate diedrichsen, don miller, richard blystone, mike chinoy, gerlind yount, mark leff, nigel parsons, kim sabido, desmond hammill, peter humi, and valerie voss. europe on ice [worst winter weather in history to hit europe, 1987. sound recording. history of meteorology 5 (2009) 35 chew, joe, jim corey, and bernard vonnegut. storms above the dessert: atmospheric research in new mexico, 19351985. albuquerque: univ. of new mexico press, 1987. curry, patrick, ed. astrology, science and society: historical essays. woodbridge, suffolk, uk: boydell press, 1987. fink, gonthier-louis. 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"outline of weather proposal, 1945." history of meteorology 4, (2008): 57-78. corresponding author(s) kerby c. alvarez, department of history, college of social sciences and philosophy, university of the philippines diliman, kcalvarez@up.edu.ph. scientific textualizations of tropical cyclones in the philippines: the scientific activities of the observatorio meteorológico de manila (omm) and philippine weather bureau (pwb), 1860s-1940s kerby alvarez introduction: philippine tropical cyclones and typhoons as subject of historical research meteorological observatories are concrete indicators of the bourgeoning modern atmospheric science in the nineteenth century. meteorology played a role in advancing safer seafaring and lessening the losses during wreckage due to storms and typhoons in the seas. the relative success of several colonial societies in further expanding their presence on the high seas through modern shipping, faster communication through telegraphy, and the growing inter-island scientific knowledge exchange contributed to the creation of modern societies that served as a stepping stone of other political and economic expansion endeavours. these developments paved the way for the creation of a semi-invisible dynamic line of communication and knowledge production circulation network in the pacific region. in his extensive studies about the work of the jesuits on the development of tropical cyclone and typhoon prediction, anduaga (2014, 2017, 2019, 2020a, 2022a, 2022b, 2022c) has illustrated the complex and dynamic conundrum of pioneering local scientific research initiatives, collaborative knowledge production, and regional and global knowledge network-building.1 1 aitor anduaga, “spanish jesuits in the philippines: geophysical research and synergies between science, education and trade, 1865-1898.” annals of science 71, no. 4 (2014): 497-521; aitor anduaga, cyclones and earthquakes: the jesuits, prediction, trade, & spanish dominion in cuba & the philippines, 1850-1898 (quezon city: ateneo de manila university press, 2017); aitor anduaga, “history of typhoon science,” oxford encyclopedia of climate science (26 april 2019) ); aitor anduaga, “los jesuitas y el estudio de los tifones en filipinas, 1865-1899” illes i imperis 22 (2020): 63-83; aitor anduaga, politics, statistics and weather forecasting, 1840-1910: taming the weather (london: routledge, 2020b); aitor anduaga, “epistemic network: the jesuits and tropical cyclone prediction, 1860-1900.” isis 113(3): 513-536; aitor anduaga, “red de conocimiento: los jesuitas, las ciencias de observatorio y su evolución en españa y ultramar, 1855-1905,” hispania mailto:kcalvarez@up.edu.ph history of meteorology 12 (2025) 2 coinciding and maximizing its contemporary technological developments such as inter-island telegraphic exchange and enhanced global shipping, the quantification of weather-related scientific work and centralization of knowledge transmission and dissemination enabled the robust growth of meteorology as a vital science for social and economic activities.2 moreover, the waves of scientific developments in the late nineteenth century facilitated the growth of formalized and localized sciences.3 global and local colonial dynamics suggested the invention of “colonial science” in the peripheral territories, in contrast to the usual structure of knowledge production wherein ideas originated from european countries and moved to their colonies. in the case of the philippines, the observatorio meteorológico de manila (omm) and later, the philippine weather bureau (pwb) served as the primary movers of the institutionalization of meteorology as a relevant and useful field of scientific endeavor in the philippines from the late nineteenth to the early twentieth century. in the past 20 years, studies in the field of environmental history have highlighted the critical appreciation of hazards and disasters as important events and turning points in filipino society. for example, the perennial experience of the philippine archipelago to tropical cyclones and typhoons has garnered more robust attention from historians, and studying them from a historical point of view serves as a springboard to a more diverse and expansive inquiry in environmental history, touching well-related fields such as institutional and intellectual history. a survey of select historical studies provides a picture of the current state-of-the-arts on the subject of historical tropical cyclones and typhoons. scientific agencies and knowledge production in the philippines from the late nineteenth to the early twentieth century saw a period of instrumentation, localized institutionalization, overseas network expansion, and “filipinization.”4 these developments served as the historical backdrop in how scientific initiatives to understand a variety of atmospheric disturbances and phenomena. two categories can be drawn from the historical studies on tropical cyclones and typhoons in the philippines: (1) works dealing with the institutional activities and initiatives in meteorology, and (2) scholarly works that historicize tropical cyclone and typhoon experiences in the philippine setting. in the first category, in the case of studies on the nature and science of typhoons, the period had been dominated by the scientific efforts of the jesuits in the philippines and the institutional initiatives and networking they pursued. anduaga (2011, 2014, 2017, 2020a, 2020b, 2022a, 2022b, 2022c) has set the historiographical landscape on the studies of jesuit research on typhoons, their institutional activities, and their regional and global legacies as movers of meteorological research.5 his work covers the nucleus of contemporary historical sacra 74 (2022): 231-246; aitor anduaga, “transnational co-production of knowledge of typhoon warning codes in the far east, 1900-1039.” minerva 60 (2022): 301-323. 2 anduaga, politics, statistics and weather forecasting, 1840–1910, 3; katharine anderson, predicting the weather: victorians and the science of meteorology (chicago: the university of chicago press, 2005), 1–2. 3 david wade chambers and richard gillespie, “locality in the history of science: colonial science, technoscience, and the indigenous knowledge,” osiris 15 (nature and empire: science and the colonial enterprise), 230. 4 alberto elena and javier ordoñez, “science, technology, and the spanish colonial experience in the nineteenth century,” osiris 15 (2020): 70-82; warwick anderson, “science in the philippines,” philippine studies 55, no.3 (2000): 287-218; jonathan baldoza, “under the aegis of science: the philippine scientific community before the second world war.” philippine studies: historical and ethnographic viewpoints 68, no.1 (2020): 81-110; francisco jayme paolo guiang, “the development of colonial science and the council under american tutelage, 1933-1941.” in a history of the national research council of the philippines: research in the life of the nation, ed. francis a. gealogo (taguig: national research council of the philippines, 2021): 7-32 5 aitor anduaga, meteorológia, ideología y sociedad en la españa contemporánea (madrid: consejo superior de investigaciones científicas, 2011); anduaga, “spanish jesuits in the philippines,”; anduaga, cyclones and earthquakes; anduaga, “los jesuitas e el estudio de los tifones en filipinas,”; anduaga, politics, statistics and weather forecasting, 1840 history of meteorology 12 (2025) 3 literature on the subject matter. as a supplement to this historiographical observation, alvarez (2016, 2024) adds that the scientific work of the jesuits in the philippines can be characterized as pioneering scientific activities that used novel instruments, the institutionalization of work, and external networking as primary framework to pursue their scientific and administrative objectives.6 moreover, the work of udias (2019) also illustrates the aforementioned opinion as he presents a capsule discussion of the institutional history of jesuit observatories and highlights the research, pedagogy, and worldwide network of observatories the order has established for two centuries.7 furthermore, garcia-herrera, et. al (2007) presents a “highresolution chronology of typhoons and intense storms occurring in the philippine islands and their vicinity for the period 1566–1900,” using the catalogue of father miguel p. selga, former director of the philippine weather bureau (1927-1941).8 in the second category, there is also an expansive literature on the historical study of the political and socio-cultural impacts and meanings attributed to philippine tropical cyclone and typhoon experiences. bankoff (2003, 2004, 2006, 2007) has significantly contributed to shaping this approach to historical disasters in the philippines.9 warren (2013, 2016) also ventured into the historical study of typhoons, underscoring the political economy of typhoon disasters.10 in his recent work, warren (2024) presents a comprehensive examination of “historicizing typhoons” in the philippines, presenting it in a framework correlating institution-knowledge production, typhoon intensity, state responses, and contemporary issues related to typhoon disasters.11 building on the mentioned past studies about typhoons in the philippines, this work examines the scientific efforts of the omm and pwb, analyzing their work and initiatives as forms of scientific textualizations on these storms. drawing from anduaga’s (2014, 2020a, 2022a, 2022b, and 2022c)12 studies on the work of the jesuits on tropical cyclones and typhoons, this work attempts to supplement the historical literature about the subject and argues based on the mentioned approach. the scientific textualizations came in various forms: local data collection, the publication of scientific work, and external and regional scientific partnerships. from understanding their genesis, tracing their origins, and tracking their movements and impacts on human settlements, the omm and the pwb spearheaded instrumentation and institutional efforts to produce knowledge about atmospheric disturbances 1910; anduaga, “epistemic network,”; anduaga, “red de conocimiento,”; anduaga, “transnational co-production of knowledge.” 6 kerby alvarez, “instrumentation and institutionalization: colonial science and the observatorio meteorológico de manila, 1865-1899,” philippine studies: historical and ethnographic viewpoints 64, nos. 3-4 (2016): 385-416; kerby alvarez, “a history of institutional meteorology in the philippines, 1865-1972,” oxford research encyclopedia of climate science (17 april 2024), https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.942. 7 agustín udías, “jesuits and the natural sciences in modern times, 1814-2014,” jesuit studies 1.3, 2019: 1-104. 8 ricardo garcía-herrera, pedro ribera, emiliano. hernández, and luis gimeno, “northwest pacific typhoons documented by the philippine jesuits, 1566–1900,” journal of geophysical research 112 (2007): 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd007370. 9 greg bankoff, cultures of disaster: society and natural in the philippines (london: routledgecurzon, 2003); greg bankoff, “in the eye of storm: the social construction of the forces of nature and the climatic and seismic construction of god in the philippines,” journal of southeast asian studies 35, no.1 (2004): 91-111; greg bankoff, “winds of colonization: the meteorological contours of spain’s imperium in the pacific, 1521-1898,” environment and history 12 (2006): 65-99; greg bankoff, “bodies on the beach: domesticates and disasters in the spanish philippines, 1750-1898,” environment and history 13(3), 2007: 285-306. 10 james francis warren, “a tale of two decades: typhoons and floods, manila and the provinces, and the marcos years,” the asia pacific journal 11.43 (3): 1-21; james francis warren, “typhoons and the inequalities of philippine society and history,” philippine studies: historical and ethnographic viewpoints 64, nos. 3-4 (2016): 455-472. 11 james francis warren, typhoons: climate, society, and history in the philippines (quezon city: ateneo de manila university press, 2024). 12 anduaga, “spanish jesuits in the philippines”; anduaga, “los jesuitas e el estudio de los tifones en filipinas”; anduaga, “epistemic network”; anduaga, “red de conocimiento”; anduaga, “transnational co-production of knowledge.” history of meteorology 12 (2025) 4 primarily affecting the philippine archipelago and the larger pacific region. the scientific work and activities of these institutions laid down the foundation of meteorological infrastructure in the philippines in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, and they became active, albeit controversial, scientific institutions in the region. the jesuits and their research work on tropical cyclones the establishment of the omm and pwb the introduction of institutional meteorology in the philippines followed the return of the jesuits in the pacific from their banishment from the archipelago from 1768 to 1859. this signalled the propagation of new forms of scientific knowledge and the proliferation of a more public character of science, through the establishment of mission observatories and introduction of novel scientific instrument. the jesuits’ passion for atmospheric sciences, rooted in their engagement with progressive scientists and institutions in europe, paved the way for new scientific advancements in the philippines. the philippine archipelagic environment served as a new ground for the jesuits’ application of their expertise in the natural sciences, specifically in meteorology. the mission’s long-established scientific tradition is grounded in their advocacy of spiritual and scientific development through schools, universities, and observatories.13 in his study on the jesuit scholarly tradition, harris (1989) transposes various ideas to present a significant overview: (1) robert merton’s sociological postulate of societal pressure, (2) rivka feldhay’s study of “jesuit ideology” as the foundation of values and missionary work, and (3) the concept of “apostolic spirituality.”14 a critical reading of his work leads us to the understanding of the jesuits’ pursuit and the legitimation of scientific work as acts of pursuing their missionary work. in an earlier exegesis, teilhard de chardin (1968) considers their deep involvement in a multitude of scientific fields as the realization of their use of research to understand god’s creations.15 harris (1989) further adds that it is contradictory to juxtapose “science” and “jesuits,” as the quest to “discern underlying patterns of coherence in the hope of finding how the pieces fit together” is profoundly embedded in their system.16 in a more recent scholarly analyses, anduaga (2022a, 2022b, 2022c) has given historical emphasis on the significance of the established knowledge networks on meteorology resulting from the proactive research enterprise of the jesuits.17 in january 1865, a small, make-shift observation facility was built in one of the buildings of the ateneo municipal de manila and was devoted to daily weather observations and data collection. it ran for months doing the routine task of observation and documentation, until a typhoon passed by manila in september 1865. the jesuits supervising the laboratory, josé colina and jaime nonell, decided to work with the information they had collected about the typhoon and publish a study in one of manila’s dailies, the diario de manila.18 the report 13 agustín udías, “jesuits’ contribution to meteorology,” bulletin of american meteorological society 77, no. 10 (1996), 2308.; anduaga, “spanish jesuits”, 505–6. 14 steven harris, “transposing the merton thesis: apostolic spirituality and the establishment of jesuit scientific tradition,’ science in context 3, no. 1 (2008): 29–32. 15 pierre teilhard de chardin, ‘the religious value of research,’ in science and christ, trans. rene hague (new york: harper & row, publishers, 1968), 201. 16 steven harris, “confession-building, long-distance networks, and the organization of jesuit science,” early science and medicine 1, no. 3 (1996), 289. 17 anduaga, “epistemic network,”; anduaga, “red de conocimiento,”; anduaga, “transnational co-production of knowledge.” 18 john schumacher, “one hundred years of jesuit scientists: the manila observatory 1865–1965,” philippine studies 13, no. 2 (1965), 259. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 5 captured the attention of some of manila’s residents. merchants and seafarers asked the jesuit superior, father juan vidal, to instruct the jesuits in manila to continue taking weather observations and provide them with additional ideas about typhoons, as well as typhoon warnings. the jesuit leadership in the philippines responded positively to the merchants’ request, and, in return, the merchants offered financial aid to purchase new and better instruments from abroad. schumacher (1965) considers this work of the manila jesuits to have been “an immense humanitarian service to the philippines.”19 from then on, the laboratory became known as the omm. in 1866, federico faura, a jesuit scholastic, arrived in manila to head the work of the weather observation facility in the ateneo.20 he led the facility for five years, before returning to spain to complete his priesthood education, as well as to familiarize himself with the methods employed by european weather observatories.21 under faura’s directorship, the omm conducted weather observation and daily documentation mostly centered in the vicinity of the city of manila, which gradually revealed its potential to support manila’s maritime and trading sectors. the omm’s emerging public engagement resulted in the realization of the spanish colonial state’s aim to make it part of the government structure. in 1880, the colonial government formed a commission composed of the various spanish civil departments, the spanish navy in the philippines, the spanish government-controlled telegraph company, and the jesuits to draft a proposal to transform the omm into a state meteorological service (servicio meteorológico).22 after years of the gruelling bureaucracy of the overseas ministry in madrid, the colonial government in manila succeeded in its plan. in 1884, king alfonso xii issued a royal decree declaring the omm as the official meteorological service of the colony and directing the colonial government to place it under direct administrative management and appropriate funds for its expansion.23 the jesuits’ centuries-long network of mission activities made them efficient facilitators of inter-institutional scientific communication and engagements. a great example of this was their network of observatories studying tropical disturbances in various parts of the world: belen in cuba, tananarive in zimbabwe, zikawei in china, and manila in the philippines.24 the jesuits’ objectives in pursuing this network fall into two categories: (1) to institutionalize their passions in meteorology and astronomy, and (2) to study the nature and tracks of huracanes (hurricanes) in the caribbean and tifones (typhoons) in the pacific.25 in europe and the antilles, fathers angelo secchi, stephen perry, and benito viñes were among the jesuit scientists who specialized in the invention of new meteorological instruments. the existence of the jesuits’ mission networks in different parts of the globe enabled the circulation not only of theological activities but also of their scientific studies, communications, and instrument familiarity. on the pacific side, the jesuits in manila brought in the archipelago instruments invented and used by their european and caribbean colleagues. the bulk of the money they received from private donors was used to purchase instruments from europe, such as secchi’s invention, the universal meteorograph. the jesuits in the omm, though initially reliant on european inventions, also made instruments designed to measure precisely 19 ibid. 20 william repetti, the manila observatory, manila, philippines, 2. 21 repetti, the manila observatory, 13; schumacher, “one hundred years of jesuit scientists,” 259. 22 saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 74. 23 “establecimiento y organización de un servicio meteorológico en las islas filipinas,”’ ultramar, 603, expediente 14, 1890/1897, archivo histórico nacional (ahn), madrid, spain; saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 79–81. 24 udías, “jesuits’ contribution to meteorology,” 2309. 25 miguel saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, fundado y dirigido por los padres de la misión de la compañía de jesús de filipinas, 1865–1915 (manila: e. c. mccullough, 1915), 24. http://pares.mcu.es/paresbusquedas/servlets/control_servlet?accion=3&txt_id_desc_ud=3531372&fromagenda=n history of meteorology 12 (2025) 6 meteorological conditions and disturbances in the philippine archipelago. the traditional framework of colonial science, wherein the periphery frequently plays the role of the receiver of development from the metropole26 was not wholly applicable in the case of the jesuits and the omm in manila. for example, they collected and published weather data in newspapers in manila; and they wrote scientific reports about certain atmospheric disturbances such as tropical cyclones, and these were used and cited by european travellers in their respective scientific memoirs and travel accounts. this knowledge production aligns with another colonial science framework wherein formalized and localized sciences cemented the dual approach of scientific development in the colonies, as well as the fulfillment of the colonial vision of integrating the colonized peoples into the institutions of modernity.27 the omm’s work on weather forecasting and public advisories expanded in the latter part of the 1860s and continued until the 1880s due to the influx of financial support from businesses who are into inter-island shipping and foreign commercial trading, owned by spanish and chinese mestizos, and european and american entrepreneurs.28 as anduaga (2014) argues, this was the “exogenous commercial element”29 of the mutual relationship between the omm and the commercial sector. on the one side, the omm provided weather forecasts, and on the other, businesses gave financial donations that were used for the maintenance and improvement of facilities of the omm.30 the omm relied heavily on donations to purchase instruments from abroad. for example, donations received after the omm’s first typhoon warnings of 1865 were used to purchase instruments such as the secchi’s meteorógrafo universal, which enabled the continuous recording of meteorological observations.31 in 1877, 88 wealthy families and businesses contributed to the construction of a new building in the ermita district of manila, outside the walled city of intramuros (fig. 1).32 aside from direct monetary donations, the omm also received funds from newspaper companies that published their daily weather reports, since their sales increased due to the subscriptions made by individuals and companies who wanted to receive weather information. the omm not only attracted the attention of manila’s business sector, it also gained popularity among international shipping and trading companies and diplomatic officials because of its work in regional weather monitoring and forecasting, as well as the studies it produced about the typhoons in the china sea and the western pacific. as a reflection of their commitment to the shipping and trading sectors, the jesuits of the omm launched them to markets in the philippines and abroad, like in europe and hong kong. in january 1886, father faura presented to the scientific community in the philippines and spain his version of an aneroid barometer, contextualized in the philippine archipelagic setting (fig. 2).33 four years later, it was widely sought after by merchants, traders, collectors, and wealthy people.34 local merchants were able to buy this device, which they used at ports, or while at the sea; but some 26 george basalla, “the spread of western science.” science 156, no. 3775 (05 may 1967), 613. 27 chambers and gillespie, “locality in the history of science,” 230; robert peckham, “disease and medicine,” in john m. mackenzie (ed.) the encyclopedia of empire (john wiley and sons, 2016), 7. 28 anduaga, “spanish jesuits in the philippines,” 504–5. 29 ibid., p. 503. 30 repetti, the manila observatory, 1; schumacher, “one hundred years of jesuit scientists,” 259; saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 27. 31 ibid. 32 schumacher, “one hundred years of jesuit scientists,” 261; saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 170–71. 33 federico faura, el barómetro aneroide aplicado a la previsión del tiempo en el archipiélago filipino (manila: imprenta y litografía de m. perez, 1886); saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 96. 34 saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 96. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 7 wealthy families used them as house displays. in late 1897, father josé algué’35 marketed his invention, the barocyclonometer, an attempt to combine the properties of father faura’s aneroid barometer and father benito viñes’ cyclonoscope (1888), an invention made to detect caribbean cyclonic movements (fig. 2).36 fig. 1. the main building of the omm from the 1880s up to its destruction in the battle of manila in february 1945. image courtesy of the manila observatory library and archives website: http://archives.observatory.ph/files/photos/1 -prewar/1_01.jpg algué’s invention was initially discussed in his 1895 work baguios ó tifones del 1894: estudio de los mismos seguido de algunas consideraciones generals acerca de los caracteres de estos meteorós en el extremo oriente.37 the institutional seals of the omm (from 1865 to 1901) and the pwb (from 1901 to 1945) were based on various types of weather barometers, a torricelli mercury barometer, and an aneroid barometer (fig. 3). although the omm benefitted from the said revenue streams, it also received financial support from the spanish colonial government in manila, especially for large projects, such as the establishment of secondary stations. in 1887, the colonial government laid out a plan for a network comprising a central station and 13 secondary stations scattered in key geographical posts on the island of luzon. once built, 35 josé algué was a spanish jesuit who became a member of the society of jesus in 1871. he studied theology in france, and later, mathematics and astronomy at georgetown university, under the supervision of father john hagen. he was a constant companion of father faura on their research trips abroad and led various scientific missions in the mindanao region. he served as the assistant director of the omm from 1894 to 1897, then as the director from 1897 to 1927 (from 1901 to 1927 as the director of the pwb). his first years as director were some of the most crucial years – the philippine revolution (1896-1898), the spanish-american war (1898), and the filipino-american war (1899-1902). he retired from his post in 1927, leading the omm in its transition from being a spanish colonial state agency to an expanded weather bureau under the us insular government in the philippines. see ángel hidalgo, el p. josé algué, s.j.: científico, inventor y pacifista (1856-1930) (manila: observatorio de manila, 1974). 36 “aneroid barometer applied to the prediction of the weather in the philippine archipelago,” report of the philippine commission to the president, part 4 (washington: government printing office, 1901), pp. 328–32; benito viñes, “the antilles cyclonoscope,” trans. isabella owen, weatherwise 42, no. 5 (1989), 258–61. 37 josé algué, baguios ó tifones de 1894: estudio de los mismos seguido de algunas consideraciones generales acerca de los caracteres de estos meteorós en el extremo oriente (manila: imprenta litografía partier, 1895), 173-183. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 8 these stations were tasked to send daily, weekly, and monthly reports to the central station in manila.38 fig. 2. left, faura’s aneroid barometer (1886); 39 right, algué’s barocyclonometer (1897).40 the us annexation of the philippines in 1898 changed the dynamics of colonial politics in the pacific region. as a new player, the united states had to position and project itself as a reputable military power. their victory in the spanish-american war (may–december 1898) forced the us to lay out ambitious plans on how to systematically control their newly acquired territory. taking over the omm was a strategic war decision for the united states. the american forces that arrived in the philippines in may 1898 were not sufficiently familiar with the terrain and seas of the philippines. they needed to secure control of vital geographic positions to carry out the military plans to pacify the islands. this is where they needed the collaboration of the jesuit scientists and the crucial functions the omm could provide. the us army tapped the omm’s scientists to provide them with vital naval and geographic information about the philippines, such as the country’s topography, weather, and climatic conditions of the islands, as well as the maritime outposts of the spanish government. they also requested that father algué, the omm’s director, continue the scientific work and service despite the military presence in the area. at this stage, they informed him of the us government’s interest in taking over the omm and explicitly asked the jesuits to continue running it.41 the us government, after their acquisition of the philippines from spain, framed their political and economic projects in the islands under the guise of a benevolent and civilizing mission to reform the structure of governance, introduce public education and health 38 saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 74–81. 39 faura, el barómetro aneroide. 40 saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, figura 161. 41 schumacher, “one hundred years of jesuit scientists,” p. 267; james francis warren, “scientific superman: father josé algué, jesuit meteorology, and the philippines under american rule, 1897–1924,” in colonial crucible: empire in the making of modern american state, alfred mccoy and francisco scarano, eds. (madison, wisconsin: the university of wisconsin press, 2009), 508. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 9 systems, and westernize the filipino culture.42 through the philippine commission act no. 131, the us insular government reorganized the omm and expanded its work under a new name: the philippine weather bureau (pwb).43 the pwb acquired instruments from the united states and established additional stations as soon as areas were selected, surveyed, and secured. rain stations were also established in different positions around the archipelago to function specifically as facilities measuring and documenting rainfall.44 importantly, american jesuits arrived to work at the pwb and became part of the bureau’s scientific staff.45 by employing american jesuits, the us insular government in the philippines maximized their scientific expertise while lessening the presence of spanish scientific personnel in the bureau. the us insular government prioritized the expansion of the pwb’s presence throughout the philippine archipelago. from 1884-1887, the omm network of stations consisted of one central station in manila and 13 secondary stations all on the island of luzon. from the reorganization of pwb in 1901 up to 1915, secondary and rain stations numbered 52.46 i argue that this institutional expansion resulted in the omm being a dynamic scientific agency in terms of weather data collection in the pacific region. fig. 3. the seals of the omm (1865-1901) and the pwb (1901-1945) 42 paul kramer, the blood of government: race, empire, the united states, and the philippines (quezon city: ateneo de manila university press, 2006); victor roman mendoza, metroimperial intimacies: fantasy, racial-sexual governance, and the philippines in u.s. imperialism, 1899–1913 (quezon city: university of the philippines press, 2002); kristine hoganson, fighting for american manhood: how gender politics provoked the spanish-american and philippine-american wars (new haven: yale university press, 1998). 43 “philippine commission act no. 131,” in annual reports of the war department for the fiscal year ended june 30, 1901, published laws and resolutions of the philippine commission (washington: government printing office, 1901), 276–79; philippine weather bureau, weather bureau centennial, 1865–1965 (quezon city: philippine weather bureau 1966), 7. some of the provisions of the law are the following: (1) a budget allotment to purchase new instruments, (2) sending weather reports and storm warning signals to port authorities, insular government officials, and local administrators of cities and towns, and (3) sending storm warnings to china, formosa, and japan. 44 report of the united states philippine commission to the secretary of war for the period from december 1, 1900 to october 15, 1901 (washington: government printing office, 1901), 51. 45 warren, “jose algué: scientific superman,” 509. 46 annual reports of the war department for the fiscal year ended june 30, 1905; volume ix: report of the philippine commission; part 2 and volume x: acts of the philippine commission (nos. 1408-1538, inclusive), and public resolutions, etc., from october 19, 1905 to september 15, 1906 (washington: government printing office. 1906), 400 history of meteorology 12 (2025) 10 scientific studies on tropical cyclones and typhoons since the establishment of the omm in the late 1860s, the jesuit scientists treated the philippine cyclones (ciclones) and typhoons (tifones or baguio [bagyo in philippine local languages]) that regularly hit the archipelago as a subject of scientific inquiry. the omm’s research initiatives and publications starting from the 1860s until the end of the nineteenth century reflect the dual-pronged approach of harnessing information from the local philippine environment and the broader pacific region. anduaga (2014) argues that in 1880, 15 years after its establishment, the omm made typhoon research its principal task.47 for decades, the omm made and published notable works on the history, origin, nature, and movement of typhoons in the philippines and the pacific seas. fathers faura and algué teamed up and produced several publications on cyclones and typhoons. faura’s señales precursoras contains information about cyclones and typhoons, recent studies about them, and precautionary measures in situations of cyclonic landfall, one of the first compilations of research and observation notes about tropical cyclones in the philippines. the local scientific studies on tropical cyclones and typhoons, aimed at identifying the nature and unique character of these philippine atmospheric experiences, blossomed the location of the country in global knowledge production on atmospheric cyclones. indeed, the omm and the pwb were active institutions in the region and had consistently produced notable publications on the subject. father miguel selga, a jesuit meteorologist and former director of the philippine weather bureau from 1927 to 1941, extensively studied the nature of philippine cyclonic phenomena, specifically typhoons. in one of his studies, he describes a philippine typhoon as: [a] storm or vast system of violent winds rotating counterclockwise around a center of calm. abundant rain accompanies the storm. the center itself has a relatively leisurely forward motion. this combination of motions has caused the stunned observer to speak with awe of a storm that turned around and came back. typhoons are born in the pacific, east of the philippines. they then follow a curving almost parabolic path that in general cuts across the philippines into the coastal regions of china and/or japan.48 to understand philippine cyclones, the geographic character of the typhoons in the archipelago needs to be emphasized. selga adds, “…by the term philippine typhoon is meant one whose influence was felt in the philippines. though a typhoon lasts many days, a single date is given most times...” 49 known respectively by filipinos and spaniards in the philippines as bagyo or baguio, by the portuguese in india and china as tifones, and as huracanes in spain, the origin and the etymology of the words are indicative of its presence, regularity, and severity of tropical cyclones and typhoons in the various regions.50 alternatively, the idea that typhoons have also social and cultural identifications needs to be recognized. historically, people consider typhoons as devastating events, taking lives or inflicting harm to people, and causing destruction of property. using this point of view, we can see how people from a certain period of time have known or identified a typhoon as a social or cultural phenomenon. thus, in such a manner, nature-driven events became more historical if they have been considered hazardous or have caused disaster to human populations or settlements. typhoons do not only sink ships 47 anduaga, “spanish jesuits in the philippines, 504. 48 miguel selga, “catalogue of philippine typhoons: 414-1703,” edited by victor badillo, philippine studies 20, no. 1 (1972), 12-13. 49 ibid. 50 bankoff, “winds of colonization,” 66. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 11 and disrupt economic activities but, by their very frequency and intensity, influence societies and even shape peoples’ cultures.51 in scientific studies, newspaper reports, and literary materials, a lot of names or labels have been commonly used to describe this particular natural hazard. the terms tifón, baguio, huracán, and ciclón appear in a lot of documents. according to their respective historical analyses of the epistemology of these terms, both selga and anthropologist henry otley beyer concluded that they have distinct origins, even though they were used interchangeably. selga explains that ciclón is of indian origin, referring to tropical cyclones formed in the bay of bengal and striking the coasts of india and bangladesh,52 while huracán has its roots in the caribbean, named after hunrakan, the mayan indian god of big winds.53 meanwhile, storms that normally hit the coasts of the philippines, china, and japan are commonly called tifón or baguio.54 his fellow jesuit meteorologist, father algué, argues that tifón was derived from the chinese taifung; fung means wind while tai refers to extreme character, one that changes direction.55 beyer further explains the chinese origin of the term tifón. using several accounts, like that of a chinese-buddhist pilgrim named fa-hien (414 bce) about his exploration of palawan-sumatra-java area, several terms existed, almost all referring to typhoons as “great wind”: tai-fung, ta-fung, ta-feng, and dai-fu.56 a typhoon’s character as a “great wind”, as well as being a “black wind”, and having “violent rain,” can also be observed in the written accounts of chinese travellers and chroniclers, such as ling-wai-tai-ta (report from the region beyond the mountains) by chou ku-fei (1178 ce), chu-fan-chi (description of the barbarous peoples) by chau ju-kua (1225 ce), and ling-piau-lu-i by liu sun (618-906 ce).57 given this, we can see that the label tai-fung/tifón/typhoon emerged as a hazard experienced on the western coast of the philippines, and southern seas of mainland china.58 the spaniards during their initial interactions with indigenous filipinos in the late 16th century observed the latter’s use of bagyo to designate strong winds, probably derived from the sanskrit vayu which corresponds to wind.59 the quantity of omm’s and pwb’s research initiatives and publications from the 1880s to the 1910s also reflects the two-pronged approach of collecting information from the philippine local environment and the broader pacific region. from 1880 to 1914, the omm and the pwb published 70 research works: 15 during the last years of the spanish era (18801898), and 55 during the early years of us rule (1899-1914). in the more than five decades from the 1880s, the omm published 39 notable works on the nature and history of tropical cyclones and typhoons in the philippines and its nearby regions, and related studies such as on instruments and codified scientific manuals, thousands of volumes of meteorological data, in the form of daily, monthly, and annual reports, as well as republished and translated works that were made available from in the 1920s and 1930s (fig. 4). 51 ibid. 52 ibid. 53 bankoff, “winds of colonization,” 66.; i. r. tannehill, the hurricane hunters (new york: dodd, mead and co., 1957), 7. 54 selga, “catalogue of philippine typhoons: 414-1703,” 12-13. 55 algué, the cyclones of the far east, p. 11. 56 letter from h. otley beyer dated 16 april 1924, sels3.1 023, selga correspondences, institutional data records, manila observatory library and archives. 57 selga, catalogue of philippine typhoons: 414-1703,” 7-9. 58 ibid., 10. 59 j. r. francisco, indian influences in the philippines (diliman, qc: university of the philippines, 1964), 40. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 12 year title author 1882 señales precursoras de temporal en el archipiélago filipino f. faura 1882 los ciclones del 20 de octubre y 5 de noviembre de 1882 f. faura 1886 el barómetro aneroide aplicado a la prevision del tiempo en el archipiélago filipino f. faura 1895 baguios ó tifones del 1894: estudio de los mismos seguido de algunas consideraciones generales acerca de los caracteres de estos meteorós en el extremo oriente j. algué 1895 el baguio de “gravina” j. algué 1897 baguios ó ciclones filipinos: estudio teórico-práctico j. algué 1897 el barociclonometro j. algué 1898 el baguio de samar y leyte, 12 y 13 de octubre de 1897 j. algué 1899 the barocyclonometer j. algué 1899 tifones de archipiélago filipino y mares circumvecinos j. doyle 1900 el baguio del 9 de setiembre de 1900 j. coronas 1904 the cyclones of the far east j. algué 1905 el barometro aplicado a la prevision del tiempo en el archipiélago filipino m. saderra mata 1906 the hong kong typhoon, september 18, 1906 j. algué 1906 el baguio de “cantabria” m. saderra mata 1908 the typhoons of 1908 j. coronas 1909 typhoon-warning code of the manila observatory j. coronas 1909 the hongkong typhoon, july 27 and 28, 1908 j. coronas 1909 the “tarlac” typhoon, september 18 to 27, 1908 j. coronas 1909 the typhoon of may 23 to 31, 1908 j. coronas 1909 the typhoons of 1909 j. coronas 1909 three typhoons in luzon, october 4 to 13, 1908 j. coronas 1910 the typhoons of october, 1909 j. coronas 1911 the typhoon of the batanes islands and southern formosa, august 21 to 29, 1911 j. coronas 1911 the typhoons of 1910 and 1911 j. coronas 1913 the barocyclonometer for use in the north atlantic j. algué 1913 the typhoons of october, 1912 j. coronas 1930 primer catálogo de baguios filipinos m. selga 1931 typhoons of august 1931 m. selga 1931 the typhoon of visayas, december 5-6, 1931 m. selga 1932 the typhoons of jolo-indo-china, april 29-may 5, 1932 m. selga 1935 charts of remarkable typhoons in the philippines, 1902-1934 m. selga history of meteorology 12 (2025) 13 fig. 4. scientific studies made by the omm and pwb on philippine typhoons (1882-1945) 60 in baguios ó ciclones filipinos (1897), father algué further emphasized the important geographic and localized character of tropical cyclones and typhoons that pass by the archipelago, arguing that approaching the matter through this would enhance the spanish colonial government’s mechanisms and responses in making towns and communities safer from tropical cyclones and typhoons.61 in 1904, an updated, english version of this book, titled the cyclones of the far east (1904)62 was published under the auspices of the us insular government in the philippines, and supported by the us coast and geodetic survey. the book is divided into two parts: the first deals with the jesuits’ theories about the occurrences of philippine cyclones and typhoons in the pacific, and the second details the indicators related to these cyclonic phenomena, with a brief discussion of father algué’s invention, the barocyclonometer.63 in september 1900, the american military government in the philippines sent the officials and personnel of the omm to a meteorological congress that was part of the 1900 universal exposition in paris, france. father algué presented the omm’s work and publications during this meeting, including the two-volume geographical, meteorological, and climatological report el archipiélago filipino, the cartographic volume atlas de filipinas (1899), a report on the 1897 luzon earthquake, and his barocyclonometer (see fig. 5 for algué’s publications).64 in the 1930s, father selga published catalogues of philippine tropical cyclones and typhoons, namely primer catálogo de baguios filipinos (1930), charts of remarkable typhoons in the philippines, 1902-1934 (1935), and catalogue of philippine typhoons, 18481934 (1935), which anduaga (2014) characterizes as a complete picture of the typhoon experience in southeast asia.65 the third one is a descriptive listing of the recorded meteorological disturbances from the earliest one in the 5th century up to the 18th century. these catalogues are based on his survey of foreign accounts about philippine tropical cyclones and typhoons, mostly based on chinese, indian, and arab chronicles, and jesuit and spanish 60 titles of these materials are based on the lists and collections found in: saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, pp. 196-200; manila observatory library and archives website <archives.observatory.ph>; university of michigan digital collections; university of michigan special collections research center (um-scrc); postal de archivos españoles (pares); and the biblioteva nacional de españa-biblioteca digital hispánica (bne-bdh). 61 algué, baguios ó ciclones filipinos, iv-v. 62 josé algué, the cyclones of the far east second (revised) edition (manila: bureau of printing, 1904). 63 “report of the director of the philippine weather bureau”, appendix g of the report of the secretary of interior, september 1, 1903 – august 31, 1904 (washington: government printing office, 1904), p. 543; algué, the cyclones of the far east. 64 saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 141–42; barocyclonometer: new edition prepared by the manila observatory and published by la estrella norte (manila: ust press, 1937). 65 anduaga, “spanish jesuits,” 511. 1935 catalogue of philippine typhoons, 1848-1935 m. selga 1936 outlines of philippines frontology c. deppermann 1937 are there warm sectors in philippine typhoons? c. deppermann 1937 wind and rainfall distribution in selected philippine typhoons c. deppermann 1939 some characteristics of philippine typhoons c. deppermann 1939 typhoons and depressions originating to the near east of the philippines c. deppermann 1945 typhoons originating in the china sea c. deppermann history of meteorology 12 (2025) 14 government reports. in 1972, an updated english version of the work was published, edited by a filipino jesuit historian at the ateneo de manila university, victor l. badillo.66 after the omm’s reorganization as the pwb in 1901, the expanded work on tropical cyclone and typhoon studies was evident in its official reports and bulletins. from 1902 to 1940, it produced hundreds of maps that illustrate the tracks of tropical depressions, and tropical cyclones and typhoons in the philippine and pacific atmospheric areas. these track maps show the regularity and approximate locations of cyclonic movements in the philippine archipelago’s vicinity. based on the available records from the manila observatory library and archives (mola), there were 213 maps showing the approximate tropical cyclones and typhoon paths and tracks. fig. 5. published studies on philippine tropical cyclones and typhoons authored by josé algué, 1895-1904. upper left: baguios ó tifones de 1894 (1895); upper right: baguios ó ciclones filipinos: estudio teórico-práctico (1897); lower left: el baguio de samar y leyte, 12-13 octubre de 1897 (1898); lower right: the cyclones of the far east (1904). the information indicated in the maps corroborates bankoff’s (2003) observation that, based on the annual us insular government reports, the period from 1880-1930 saw an increase in the number of recorded and documented tropical cyclones and typhoons in the 66 miguel selga, “catalogue of philippine typhoons: 414-1703.” history of meteorology 12 (2025) 15 philippines.67 moreover, the maps also present a picture of approximated tropical cyclone and typhoon movements in the greater pacific region (fig. 6). aside from maps that focus on the philippines, the pwb also made reports about typhoons that hit other parts of the pacific, as well as summaries of storms that passed through the region in specific periods (fig. 7). examples of these are the cantabria cyclone of 22-28 september 1905, the four typhoons of september 1907, the yap typhoon of 17 december 1920, the naha typhoon of 23-25 august 1931, and the summary map of cyclones from 1901-1920. fig. 6. tropical depressions and tropical cyclones and typhoons indicated in select maps of the pwb annual reports, 1902-1940.68 regional scientific knowledge networks on tropical cyclones and typhoons as the studies made by legarda (1999) and fast and richardson (1987) emphasize, the nineteenth-century philippine political and economic situation was highly dependent on external domains and affairs and was controlled by anglo-american institutions, in particular, trading houses who were dominant in external trade and influenced local agricultural production.69 aside from this fact, natural hazards pushed colonial administrations to act on the worsening domestic agricultural situation in the archipelago. to halt the losses in agriculture, trade, and commerce, governments and private sectors of different colonial territories ventured into supporting meteorology as an instrument to calculate and manage trade and shipping on the high seas. therefore, the idea of meteorology as a modern colonial science developed in dual trajectories: (1) the evolution of the nature of colonial science, from the exploratory phase seen on natural history expeditions to the rise of institutional laboratories, and (2) modern weather observation through the use of new instruments for atmospheric condition prediction. 67 bankoff, cultures of disaster, 43. 68 “maps.” manila observatory library and archives (mola) <https://archives.observatory.ph/english/get_maps.php>. 69 benito j. legarda, after the galleons: foreign trade, economic change, and entrepreneurship in the nineteenth-century philippines (quezon city: ateneo de manila university press, 1999); and jonathan fast and jim richardson, roots of dependency: political and economic revolution in the 19th century philippines (quezon city: foundation for nationalist studies, 1987). 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 tropical depressions and tropical cyclones and typhoons indicated in select maps of the pwb annual reports, 1902-1940 tropical depressions tropical cyclones and typhoons history of meteorology 12 (2025) 16 cannon (1938) claims that omm “was the first ever to give warning of weather conditions in the china sea and the western pacific…”70 the work of the jesuits and omm on weather observation and meteorology, in local and regional scales, was not the earliest in the pacific. as early as the late 18th century, the dutch had already established meteorological outposts in dejima, on the coast of the city of nagasaki in japan.71 their meteorological data has been valuable in the reconstruction of the climate of japan based on archival sources. in 1849, the russian orthodox mission in japan expanded its small meteorological unit and operated at the expense of the russian embassy until 1863.72 throughout the nineteenth century, “japanese” institutional meteorology gained momentum.73 during the second half of the nineteenth century, several observatories were in operation and conducting meteorological observations in china, serving the traders and merchants of various european nations. in 1869, meteorologist sir robert hart, inspector general of the chinese imperial maritime customs initiated a project wherein he organised the meteorological observation system of the bureau.74 and in 1872, several decades after they had resurrected their mission in china, the jesuits founded a meteorological observatory in zikawei, shanghai.75 cannon (1938) adds, “the two jesuit observatories were able to predict and broadcast weather warnings for the entire china coast, and the islands of the south.”76 it should be noted that as early as 1890, the director of the zikawei observatory, father marc dechevrens, proposed to british authorities in hong kong a detailed proposal of collaboration with all the meteorological stations on the china coast centralized in zikawei, as they were already making weather maps for the area.77 this proposal stemmed from the fact that the zikawei observatory, under father dechevrens’ leadership, made the bold move to be the central weather observatory in the china coast, given the fact that it had direct relations with the meteorological observatory in manila, maximizing their common jesuit connection as scientists and institutions. along with this line of development, the omm led the pack of colonial institutions that pursued scientific research and institutionalized the meteorological work in the region. anduaga (2014) argues the significant role of the omm not only as one of the earliest in southeast asia and the far east but also the one that succeeded in expanding its work and developing a proactive meteorological infrastructure, to disseminating information for public consumption.78 looking at two statements in 1917 and 1927 on the work of the omm/pwb, its enviable position and function showcase its utmost importance as a scientific institution in the pacific region: 70 thomas b. cannon, ‘history of the jesuits in the philippines,’ woodstock letters 67(2), 1938, p. 141. 71 gaston demaree, takehiko mikami, togo tsukuhara, and masumi zaiki, “in the wake of ‘de liefde’:: the instrumental meteorological observations of the vereenigde oost-indische compagnie (voc),” bull. séanc. acad. r. sci. outre-mer 59(24), 2003, pp. 385-405. 72 p. kevin mackeown, early china coast meteorology: the role of hong kong (hong kong: hong kong university press, 2010), p. 11. 73 takuya miyagawa, “building the imperial meteorological network and making ‘japanese meteorology,’, 18681945,”seoul national university doctoral dissertation, 2015; g. p. konnen, m. zaiki, a. p. m. baede, t. mikami, p. d. jones, and t. tsukuhara, ‘pre-1872 extension of the japanese instrumental meteorological observation series back to 1819’, journal of climate 16, 2003, pp. 118-131. 74 zhu, “typhoons, meteorological intelligence,” 20. 75 mackeown, early china coast meteorology, 20. 76 cannon, “history of the jesuits in the philippines,” 141 77 agustín udías, searching the heavens and the earth: the history of jesuit observatories (dordrecht: kluwer academic publishers), 160. 78 anduaga, “spanish jesuits in the philippines,” 512. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 17 the progress in the time service of the philippine islands is made evident from the fact that since october 1, 1917, the cavite radio station, cooperating with the bureau of posts and the manila observatory, send out time signal of the 120th meridian east of greenwich at 11 a.m. and 10p.m. every day, sundays and holidays inclusive. manila holds an enviable position in the pacific and the interests of shipping companies making manila a port of call are [sic: is] too prosperous to be overlooked. accurate time signals and wise typhoon warnings are of immense value to the units of the united states asiatic fleet, to army transports and in general to oversea [sic] the shipping. 79 a glance at the map of the far east will easily convince anyone that, with stations at guam and yap, both the efficiency of the philippine weather bureau as an outpost to guard to whole far east against surprises in the lines of typhoons would be tremendously increased. both stations were round to off the system of the philippine meteorological service toward the east, that is to say, toward the region of the pacific where the great majority of typhoons are formed. 80 fig. 7. trayectorias medias de los baguios o tifones en el extremo oriente.81 mackeown (2011) pointed out that no other meteorological observatory rivalled the omm in its impact in the blossoming of meteorology in hong kong.82 father faura stated in 1880 that establishing weather and typhoon forecasting institutions in the archipelago would not only help the spanish navy in its mandate to monitor the seas, but also the neighbouring colonies, due to the position of the philippines at the forefront of the pacific ocean, as tropical 79 “wireless time service in the philippine islands,” science, new series, 46(1198), dec. 14, 1917, p. 582, ins s1.1 061, institutional records, manila observatory library and archives. emphasis added by author. 80 josé coronas, “importance of yap and guam as weather stations near the origin of typhoons” (1927), cor s2 011, personnel data records, manila observatory library and archives. emphasis added by author. 81 josé algué, baguios ó tifones de 1894: estudios de los mismos segudo de algunas consideraciones generals acerca de los caracteres de estos meteoros en el extremo oriente (manila: imprenta litografía parter, 1895), 170. 82 mackeown, early china coast meteorology, p. 17. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 18 cyclones and typhoons travel from the philippines to china, and never the other way around.83 (see figure no. 5) in 1907, the manila harbor board reported that pwb, played an important part in an extensive and comprehensive system of meteorological stations in the pacific, as it led the collection of data from “stations situated in various places over the far east from japan to borneo,” and that the service was not only for the pwb, “but for all the meteorological departments in all countries and colonies of the far east.”84 the board concluded that the service provided prompt and accurate information to weather bureaus in the widely scattered region of the pacific, was “aided in giving proper forecasts for their respective localities.”85 the omm, pwb, and the observatories in western pacific available data shows that by the year 1914, the pwb successfully established communications and relations with scientific institutions, organizations, and observatories around the world. covering four regions (europe, asia and the pacific/oceania, americas, and africa) and 48 countries, the pwb had scientific exchanges with 308 institutions and observatories (fig. 8). region countries institutions/observatories europe 17 165 asia and the pacific (oceania) 10 37 americas 17 99 africa 4 7 totals 48 308 fig 8. summary of the number of institutions with scientific exchanges with the omm and pwb.86 among these institutions, 22 are found in the western pacific region, belonging to five countries and territories – china, japan, indochina, java, and singapore. [see table no. 5] generally, these institutions had a fair and smooth relationship with omm, but notably in two countries the omm’s ties expanded; the active turned lukewarm communications with hong kong observatory and the intimate relations with the tokyo observatory. the list of omm’s incoming and outgoing correspondence with their fellow jesuits, filipino officials and scientific staff, and foreign individuals and government institutions reveals the extent of their scientific communication network and their active engagements with different individuals and institutions regarding their scientific research and public service. most of the exchanges stem from the continuous reliance of foreign institutions on information from the pwb, and the development of further scientific collaboration between the omm with the experts from europe and the united states. the bulk of this surviving collection of correspondence dates to the 1910s to 1930s, when father selga served as assistant director and later as director of the pwb (figs. 9 & 10). 83“establecimiento y organización de un servicio meteorológico en las islas filipinas”, ultramar,604, exp.14. 84 the port of manila, philippine islands: a yearbook devoted to foreign commerce and shipping of manila and the philippines (manila: manila harbor board, 1934), 33. 85 ibid. 86 saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 201-210. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 19 other pacific meteorological observatories year established form of scientific exchange manila observatory batavia observatory (java, indonesia) 1869 wde chinese imperial maritime customs (shanghai, china) 1869 dc, wde zikawei observatory (zikawei, china) 1872 dc, wde, tw, ms tokyo central observatory (tokyo, japan) 1875 dc, wd, tw, ms hong kong observatory (hong kong island) 1883 dc, wde, tw phù liễn observatory (hải phòng, french indochina) 1903 wde royal thai meteorological service (bangkok, thailand) 1923 wde bosscha observatory (lembang, west japan) 1923 wde meteorological division of the british malayan survey department (kuala lumpur, british malaya) 1927 wde fig. 9. manila observatory and the nature of its relationship with various observatories.87 legend: dc, direct communications; wde, weather data exchange; tw, typhoon warnings; ms, magnetic surveys. incoming personnel jesuits (local) jesuits (abroad) filipinos (local) filipinos (abroad) government officials foreigners unknown j. algué 4 -2 2 2 10 1 j. coronas --1 ---- f. faura ----3 -- w. repetti ------1 m. saderra masó ------- m. selga 6 10 45 2 12 89 11 outgoing personnel jesuits (local) jesuits (abroad) filipinos (local) filipinos (abroad) government officials foreigners unknown j. algué 4 7 1 -1 1 2 j. coronas 1 1 ---2 - f. faura -----1 - w. repetti ------- m. saderra masó --2 --1 - m. selga -3 17 -15 26 - fig. 10. incoming and outgoing correspondences of certain jesuit officials of the omm, 1880s-1940s.88 87 ibid. 88 manila observatory library and archives, http://archives.observatory.ph/english/personnel_records.ph history of meteorology 12 (2025) 20 typhoon “feud”: manila and hong kong, 1899 zhu (2012) argues that one rationale for the establishment of a specific network of observatories on the china coast, namely the shanghai, zikawei, and hong kong, was to properly coordinate typhoon warning communication with manila since most of the typhoons that arrive in that area pass by the philippines first.89 the interactions between the manila and hong kong observatories reflects a complex inter-island scientific relationship. this was realized in several parameters, including information sharing through telegraphic connections and an influx of donations from hong kong merchants to omm. this cooperation started with the successful establishment of a submarine cable between manila and hong kong in the early months of 1880.90 the hong kong traders and the colonial government headed by governor john pope hennessey had been keen to create regular telegraphic communications between the two countries, sending petitions to the spanish colonial government in manila. their primary reason was to share regular daily weather bulletins, meteorological notes and observations, and, critically, typhoon warnings.91 but, the relationship between the omm and the island colony’s official weather agency, the hong kong observatory, turned out to be lukewarm and volatile, as the supposed inter-institutional scientific partnership and public sector-driven engagement were marred by bureaucratic competition and scientific distrust amongst its agency heads. father faura was not keen to commit formally to the request because of the cost of telegraphic communications and, more practically, because he already had established contact with the closer meteorological stations in shanghai and xiamen which, arguably, hong kong could also rely upon for the same meteorological information. an example of a typhoon advisory was the señales de mal tiempo, a flyer or pamphlet containing weather notes and advice for seafarers.92 in the same year, governor pope hennessy wrote a letter to the spanish governor-general asking for regular wireless communication of meteorological notes and observations to be established between their respective colonies.93 after almost two years of limited communication, however, an initiative led by a private telegraph company in 1882 enabled a more stable weather communication reporting service and network between manila and hong kong.94 the omm’s 53 typhoon warnings issued between 1879 and 1882 captured the attention of businessmen from the nearby british colony of hong kong, which lacked a weather observatory.95 these merchants signified their intention to donate to the jesuits for the purchase of supplementary apparatus and the improvement of their laboratory.96the manilabased newspaper el comercio reported in 1880 that the hong kong traders donated to the 89 marlon zhu, “typhoons, meteorological intelligence, and the inter-port mercantile community in nineteenth-century china.” doctoral dissertation, state university of new york, binghamton, 106. 90 schumacher, “one hundred years of jesuit scientists,” pp. 261-262; miguel saderra masó, misiones jesuíticas de filipinas, 1581-1768 y 1859-1924 (manila: imprenta pontificia de la universidad de sto. tomas, 1924), 101. 91 mackeown, early china coast meteorology, pp. 29 and 33; saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 63; zhu, “typhoons, meteorological intelligence,” 169-172; schumacher, “one hundred years of jesuit scientists,” pp. 261-261; saderra masó, misiones jesuíticas, 101. 92 servicio meteorológico, 1885-1897, sds-12433 and 12434, national archives of the philippines (nap), manila. 93 mackeown, early china coast meteorology, 33. 94 saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 70. 95 marcial sola, report of the director of the philippine weather bureau, 1902, part 2: meteorological service in the philippine islands, 1865-1902 (manila: bureau of printing, 1903), 1011. 96 saderra masó, misiones jesuíticas, 101. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 21 omm to purchase new instruments; it was spearheaded by several companies, such as the hong kong shanghai banking corporation (hsbc).97 since the establishment of the hong kong observatory in 1883, its director, august william doberck treated other observatories on the china coast, such as shanghai and zikawei, as inferior. for him, the hong kong observatory should be an independent and leading institution of typhoon studies, not auxiliary to other observatories. this was rooted in an initial proposal of the shanghai chamber of commerce meteorological committee wherein zikawei would be the central station of a small network of weather agencies on the china coast, and that a jesuit will be appointed as “director-general of the china coasts and seas.”98 saderra masó (1915) considered this as the “el pecado original” (the original sin), which motivated doberck’s hostile attitude towards the zikawei observatory and its director, dechevrens, and later, to the omm.99 upon doberck’s arrival in hong kong, he reported to the hong kong colonial secretary that there was no existing weather service on the china coast and that it had several stations that had useless instruments.100 these observations blatantly disregarded the existence of jesuit observatories that were in their second decade of existence by the time of doberck’s arrival. in early 1889, father faura made a bold decision to cut manila’s weather report sending service to hong kong due to a misunderstanding with doberck. in an apparent display of a defensive stance, the latter published an open letter in the newspaper daily press on 04 july 1889, saying that the correspondence from manila did not matter in the smooth running of the weather observatory in hong kong.101 but due to the persistent requests from hong kong merchants and colonial governments having trading outposts in hong kong and on the china coast, the omm gradually normalized its ties with hong kong, despite doberck’s consistent disregard of their work. the communication between the two observatories continued professionally until the end of the century when differences broke out between the omm jesuits and the hong kong observatory director concerning the spanish-american war in manila. the wars in the philippines – the philippine revolution of 1896-1898, the spanishamerican war of 1898, and the philippine-american war of 1899 caused severe disruption to omm’s work, including its relationship with the neighbouring british island colony. on 17 february 1899, father algué, then the omm’s director, received an order from the us war department in washington prohibiting the omm from sending messages, reports, and typhoon warnings to nearby territories in the south china sea, especially to hong kong.102 the order was a result of earlier communication between willis moore, chief of the us weather bureau, and doberck, where the latter recommended that the americans bar the omm from communicating with hong kong.103 in an obvious and calculated move to accommodate the advice of a colonial official from a neighbouring colony, the us military government in the philippines executed the order from the us war department. doberck argued that the omm was sending “sensational” or exaggerated reports because it was under the supervision of “men with little scientific education.”104 in a letter published in manila and hong kong newspapers on 7 march 1899, father algué repudiated doberck’s accusations, arguing that the 97 zhu, “typhoons, meteorological intelligence,” 172-273. 98 mackeown, early china coast meteorology, 42. 99 saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila, 69 and 84. 100 ibid., 70. 101 ibid., 72. 102 saderra masó, historia del observatorio de manila; repetti, the manila observatory, 19. 103 zhu, “typhoons, meteorological intelligence,” 255. 104 repetti, the manila observatory, 19; zhu, “typhoons,” 256–57. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 22 omm’s work was for the welfare of the public.105 the issue continued to make headlines with press commentaries in both countries siding with the omm and the jesuits, and commercial groups such as the hong kong chamber of commerce (hcc) expressed their disappointment with the two weather agencies.106 on 03 april, after almost two months of suspension, a request from hong kong’s business sector channelled through the governor of the british colony, arthur blake, led to the us government lifting the restriction and the omm resumed its reporting to hong kong.107 the end of the controversy served as a catalyst for us appreciation of the omm’s scientific work. zhu (2012) describes this 1899 incident between the two observatories as a “news-mediated incident.”108 the hong kong newspapers played a crucial role in creating public sentiment favorable to their chosen protagonist in the issue. in the last quarter of 1899, commentaries published in the china mail show that doberck’s boorish treatment of the manila fathers had caused much loss to hong kong.109 moreover, this event exhibits the reality of inter-colonial political relations in the region. the us, which just came from a war with spain, had to be cautious in dealing with western counterparts as they took on their new colonial possession in the pacific. since the “request” came from an ally country, doberck’s expert commentary on the jesuits was received not merely as a petition, but as war advice that needed appropriate action from the us military in the philippines. the issue pushed the us and british colonial governments to move cautiously in dealing with the scientific clash, which concerned various war and economic interests. the issue might have been a product of institutional rivalry, but the event fell under the auspices of international war and involved various colonial interests. the omm and pwb at colonial expositions and scientific congresses: showcasing science, projecting the empire international colonial expositions and scientific congresses became avenues for the omm and pwb to present their scientific research, showcase their inventions, establish external connections and networks, and gain international prestige as one of the leading scientific institutions and observatories in the world (fig. 11). in these international political and scientific gatherings, the omm and pwb successfully portrayed themselves as modern scientific institutions in the pacific, proudly promoting their scientific research, projects, and achievements, and strongly projecting the subtle and not-so-subtle image of spanish and us empires, which both banked on modern scientific knowledge to pursue their respective colonial and imperial projects. ultimately, the network established in this scientific endeavour served as the “extension” of their institutional relationship with the western pacific meteorological observatories. anduaga (2014) argues that the international community continued to recognize 105 letter of josé algué to the us provost marshall, algué correspondence folder, 1893–1900, manila observatory personnel data records, manila observatory library and archives. 106 see zhu, “typhoons, meteorological intelligence,” 258-265. according to zhu, the published letter from the jesuits contained changed words and paraphrased sentences, and omitted parts of doberck’s original letter; hong kong daily press, 28 march 1899, cited by mackeown, early china coast meteorology, 177. 107 zhu, “typhoons, meteorological intelligence,” pp. 258-265. 108 ibid. the author argued that father algué paraphrased doberck’s original letter. 109 mackeown, early china coast meteorology, p. 174; el servicio meteorológico del observatorio de manila: vindicado y rehabilitado (1899) (manila: imprenta del observatorio, 1899). history of meteorology 12 (2025) 23 the value of the omm’s scientific work, despite spain’s loss in the spanish-american war of 1898, and its sale of the philippines to the united states.110 year exposition/congress participants from the omm/pwb 1883 universal colonial exposition, amsterdam (netherlands) f. faura 1885 meteorological society of hamburg (germany) f. faura 1887 colonial exposition, madrid (spain) f. faura 1888 colonial exposition, barcelona (spain) f. faura and j. algué 1889 meteorological congress, paris (france) f. faura and j. algué 1893 meteorological congress chicago (usa). part of columbian exposition. f. faura and j. algué 1895 regional exposition manila (philippines) 1900 meteorological congress paris (france) j. algué, f. cicera, m. saderra masó 1902 french colonial exposition hanoi (indochina) 1904 st. louis exposition missouri (usa) j. algué, roman lacson, roman trinidad 1905 meteorological congress innsbruck (austria) j. algué 1920 first pacific science congress honolulu, hawaii (usa) m. saderra masó 1923 second pacific science congress, melbourne and sydney, (australia) m. selga 1925 vatican missionary exposition rome (italy) 1926 third pacific science congress tokyo (japan) m. selga 1929 fourth pacific science congress java (indonesia) w. repetti 1930 far east weather service directors’ conference m. selga 1931 international overseas colonial exposition paris (france) 1932 first philippine science convention manila (philippines) staff of the pwb 1933 fifth pacific science congress victoria and vancouver (canada) w. repetti fig. 11. list of international expositions and scientific congresses where the omm/pwb participated, 1883-1937.111 after they participated in the vienna meteorological congress in 1873, the jesuit fathers were encouraged by congress delegates to publish their studies.112 it came to fruition in 1875 when the signal service office in washington, d.c. asked for their published weather bulletins in the international scientific community.113 in the 1883 exposición colonial universal held in amsterdam, father faura presented his book, together with his aneroid 110 anduaga, “spanish jesuits,” 519. 111 repetti, “the manila observatory”, the woodstock letters 77(4), 238-243; repetti, the manila observatory, 37-39. 112 federico faura and josé algué, la meteorológía en la exposición columbina de chicago (1893): memoria escrita (barcelona: imprenta de henrich y compañia en comandita, 1894), p. 115; saderra masó, historia de observatorio de manila, 30. 113 saderra masó, historia de observatorio de manila, 30. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 24 barometer, to the delegates from different scientific institutions in europe and asia.114 the omm also participated in the exposición general de filipinas in madrid in 1887 and exposición universal de barcelona in 1889, where it received the highest appraisal and honours.115 in the 1893 columbian exposition in chicago, the omm presented to the exposition delegates its meteorological instruments from manila. this international exposition included scientific lectures that featured meteorological devices such as anemometers, thermographs, snowfall recording apparatus, and different types of thermometers.116 the exposition also featured exhibits that showed advancements in instrument use and application. physical notions such as presión atmosférica (atmospheric pressure), temperatura de aire (air temperature), corrientes aéreas (airstreams), meteoros acuosos (aqueous meteors), and psicrómetros composed the exhibit that had on display barometers, barographs, thermometers, teletermómetros (tele-thermometers, for measurement of temperature of distant places), anemometers, anemoscopes (wind direction indicators), and pluviographs.117 fathers faura and algué admitted that indeed, the invention, in general, and the use of recording instruments had opened new horizons in the science of meteorology.118 they added that experimental meteorology had changed since secchi’s meteorograph was presented to the scientific community and featured at the universal expositions held to popularize inventions—the 1867 and 1878 expositions in paris and the 1873 exposition in vienna.119 faura and algué were very optimistic that, through their report, the columbian exposition would inspire youth to pursue studies in meteorology.120 the popularization of instruments and the rise of recording tools prompted the quick recognition of meteorology as an indispensable pillar of colonial development. indeed, the number of instruments that the omm had acquired at the time of the columbian exposition was on par with the global trend. in 1904, almost six years after the united states annexed the philippines, the us celebrated the centennial of the 1803 louisiana purchase121, a turning point in the history of its territorial expansion. in celebration, the st. louis world’s fair, an international exposition showcasing the scientific, technological, and cultural advancements being made throughout the world, was held in missouri. the world’s fair revealed the many sides of imperialism and exposed the united states’ intention to transform the philippines into a colony framed by its protracted notion of civilization. in 1901, the pwb participated in this event and exhibited its inventions, instruments, collections, and selected scientific publications. the pwb’s team that headed to st. louis included its director, father algué, and two filipinos, augusto ferrer, a draughtsman, and roman trinidad, a mechanic.122 two other jesuit scientists went to missouri several months ahead to make the preparations. the exhibit was composed of three sections: 114 saderra masó, historia de observatorio de manila, 61; faura, el barómetro aneroide aplicado a la previsión del tiempo en el archipiélago filipino, 2 115 saderra masó, historia de observatorio de manila, 97-98. 116 faura and algué, la meteorológía en la exposición colombina de chicago (1893), 23-24 117 ibid., 69-103. 118 ibid., 115. 119 ibid. 120 ibid., 115-116. 121 the united states, during the administration of president thomas jefferson in 1803, purchased from france the vast louisiana territory of france in north america. this significant land acquisition signaled the united states’ continental expansion in the nineteenth century, giving the country massive agricultural and mineral resources for its economic projects. 122 josé algué, “the philippine weather bureau at the louisiana purchase exposition in st. louis,” annual reports of the philippine commission 1904 (washington: government printing office, 1905), 551; repetti, the manila observatory, 39. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 25 geographical, meteorological, and seismic. it had a two-story building and a giant relief map of the philippines in front. the building was a 33x33 meter-sized structure; it housed meteorological and seismic instruments, special maps, and drawings.123 the instruments the pwb exhibited included the vicentinni microseismograph and seismometer for the seismic sections, and anemograph, kinemo-anemograph, ceraunograph, mercurial barometer, barograph, algué’s barocyclonometer, refraction nephoscope, solar chronometer, and hygrometer for the meteorological section.124 the relief map measured 100x65 feet. placed around it were eight smaller maps, which show the political and cultural divisions of the archipelago, as well as ethnic groupings, mineral resources, agricultural and forest products, seismic zones, average rain and temperature records for specific months, and meteorological districts and stations of the pwb. the relief maps also had models of taal and mayon volcanoes and the manila bay. the pwb presented some of its publications: the two-volume el archipiélago filipino, an atlas, and a book on its institutional history. also displayed in the exhibit were some philippine products, like embroidered piña cloth, sculptured shells, 150 specimens of wood, and furniture made from bolonguita and narra.125 for the whole duration of the exposition, filipinos were hired to take care of pwb’s exhibit. the pwb was recognized with an outstanding citation and its staffers were honoured with individual awards. it was also given a special honour for a model meteorologicalseismological station and father algué received a gold medal for his barocyclonometer and other instruments made by the pwb under his supervision, such as the nephoscope, and the pwb version of the microseismograph.126 the native filipino personnel of the pwb exhibit, trinidad, ferrer, gervasio de guia, and ramon navarro who constructed the exhibit, and roman lacson, a filipino pensionado (us insular government scholar) and law graduate from georgetown university, who manned it over the months it was in situ, also received awards.127 the us projected in the exposition the dichotomy of “civilization” and “savagery,” which advanced the idea that conquest and administration of the philippines were beneficial to the archipelago. the pwb symbolized modernity and scientific progress: a complete contrast to other philippine-related exhibits which displayed the supposed “vulgarity” and “exoticism” of philippine culture. to explain this duality, the us claimed the pwb as their creation and blatantly attempted to erase the bureau’s spanish origin. the pwb exhibit demonstrated to an international public – from travellers, traders, agriculturists, anthropologists, and even olympic athletes – that the us pacification of the philippines was benevolent and had brought enlightenment to the archipelago. conclusion the scientific activities of the omm and pwb from the 1860s to the 1940s illustrate the significant contributions of its local research initiatives and international scientific networkbuilding and collaborations. on the one hand, pioneering scientific research work and publications of the jesuit meteorologists on tropical cyclones and typhoons showcase the wealth of information and knowledge they helped produce to understand the said atmospheric phenomena that clearly impacted the social and economic life of the philippine archipelago. 123 algué, “the philippine weather bureau at the louisiana purchase exposition,” 551. 124 ibid., 556-558. 125 ibid., 556. 126 ibid., 551; report of the philippine weather bureau, appendix l, annual reports of the war department for the fiscal year ended june 30, 1905 (washington: government printing office, 1905), 416. 127 algué, “the philippine weather bureau at the louisiana purchase exposition in st. louis,” 551. history of meteorology 12 (2025) 26 beyond the conventional approach of what is considered foreign or local, the research work of the jesuit scientists, despite its international expansion, remained primarily for the benefit of the philippines as a “locality.” the omm and pwb’s primary objective during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries was to provide a structured, scientific approach to weather forecasting and cyclonic predictions. through research and the introduction of instruments catered to the local conditions of the archipelago, the jesuits advanced a form of public science, which served the government and private commercial sectors, making meteorology a vital support for bureaucratic governance and public engagement in the colonial philippines. on the other hand, the omm and the pwb successfully established regional and global network links and partnerships not only for the purposes of inter-state collaborations for safer shipping but also for efficient dissemination and exchange of information on meteorology. for almost eight decades of its institutional existence, the omm and the pwb, engaged their contemporary meteorological observatories in the region, contributing to the establishment of dynamic networks of meteorological knowledge sharing and dissemination. it thrived as an institution that weathered the restive era of economic transformation and scientific collaboration from the late nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries. acknowledgements i would like to express my gratitude to the following for their scholarly support to me in pursuing this research: the manila observatory library and archives at the ateneo de manila university, the university of tokyo libraries, and the university of michigan libraries for allowing me access to their collections; i am also grateful to the japan foundation for the japanese studies fellowship program (jf-jsfp) grant 2022-2023 for supporting my library research in japan, and to the university of michigan libraries philippine scholars research fellowship (um-psrf) 2024-2025 for making my archival research in the united states possible; and to my colleagues and friends in the philippines and abroad, namely, ruel v. pagunsan, anthony d. medrano, fe susan go, barbara alvarez, togo tsukuhara, fiona williamson, takuya miyagawa, marlon zhu, shinji miyagawa, and toru nakanishi for the valuable conversations and their insights in improving this paper. 