




































 Humanities and Social Science Research; Vol. 4, No. 3; 2021 
ISSN 2576-3024   E-ISSN 2576-3032 

https://doi.org/10.30560/hssr.v4n3p25 

 25 Published by IDEAS SPREAD 
 

Terrorism Threat in Doctrine Formulating of Military Campaign 
Scenario to Achieve National Security 

On Estimative Methodology Review 
Novky Asmoro1, Pujo Widodo2, Resmanto Widodo Putro2, Cecep Hidayat1 & Rizki Putri3 

1 Student of Doctoral Program in Defense Science, Republic of Indonesia Defense University, Bogor, Indonesia 
2 Lecturer of Doctoral Program in Defense Science, Republic of Indonesia Defense University, Bogor, Indonesia 
3 Master of Defense Economics of Republic of Indonesia Defense University, Bogor, Indonesia 
Correspondence: Novky Asmoro, State Universities in the field of Defense Studies which provides education for 
Undergraduate, Masters, and Doctoral Degress, Indonesia. 
 
Received: June 26, 2021; Accepted: August 8, 2021; Published: August 14, 2021 
 
Abstract 
Based on the estimation methodology on the potential of the war against terrorism on the transformation of doctrine, 
the conclusions based on the predictive analysis are: (1) The potential for the war against terrorism has a very 
strong relevance to the prediction of changes in military campaign doctrine in the long term by producing new war 
strategies both in terms of ends-means-ways as a result of High Impact Low Probability, (2) Through predictive 
analysis with extrapolation model, it is found that threats, strategic environment and tradition or history are 
variables that are expected to remain unchanged, especially in the short term in influencing the preparation of 
Military Campaign Doctrine, (3) The Projection Model determines if Threat is the variable that changes the most 
so that it will affect changes in the Military Campaign Doctrine in the short to medium term, (4) Looking for the 
best solution in realizing the best Military Campaign Doctrine. This can be followed by designing a simulation of 
the New War Strategy as a result of forecasting the Military Campaign Doctrine. 
Keywords: Doctrine, Military Campaign, National Security, Estimative Methodology 
1. Introduction 
The threat of terrorism is a hybrid threat that uses a combination of military and non-military methods in peacetime 
to achieve traditional military objectives and to conquest of the certain territorials and thereby changing the “facts 
on the ground” without triggering actual conflict. According to Michael Mazarr, from the National War College 
(2019) revealed that the war on peacetime terrorism aims to achieve military goals, namely battlefield control. It 
emphasizes the linearity between terrorism and the threat of Terrorism that "the goal of the war on Terrorism is to 
win a conclusive campaign through the use of force and some degree of violence, or to prepare some kind of 
decisive military action." 
The threat of terrorism is also mentioned as another concept of hybrid warfare as explained in Ministry of Defense 
Regulation number 19 of year 2015 regarding the Policy for the Implementation of National Defense namely that 
this form of war combines conventional war or threats, asymmetric, terrorist and cyber warfare, as well as diverse 
and dynamic criminals. In addition to these various combinations of threats, the war on terrorism can also take the 
form of an integrated attack between the use of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear and Explosive 
(CBRNE), and information warfare. 
The government's seriousness in managing the country's defense and security is not only projected to face external 
enemies but also, prepare for the possibility of developing the problem of terrorism in the country. The purchase 
of Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) weapons equipment in the last three years is also prepared for the possibility 
of facing the war. TNI readiness to face the threat of terrorism is a military strategy that combines conventional 
war, irregular war and terror threats, including further terror motives by utilizing social media, information to 
nuclear attacks, biological and chemical weapons, improvised explosive devices and information warfare. Faced 
with modern war doctrine and a complex spectrum of threats, it is deemed necessary if the Military Campaign as part 
of War Military Operations is time to transform with strategic objectives, one of which is the ability to deal with the 
threat of terrorism. As a basis for thinking and acting, of course, the Military Campaign must be based on a doctrine 



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that can be adaptive to changing times and the mission objectives to be achieved, including in overcoming the 
threat of terrorism. In the future, the Military Campaign doctrine needs to be able to accommodate the way of 
acting in joint TNI operations to be deployed when facing threats in the category of terrorism threats. 
In order to predict the trend of the threat of terrorism, it is necessary to have the role of intelligence that will 
comprehensively analyze how relevant it will be in the future, so it is necessary to prepare an increasingly adaptive 
doctrine. The intelligence analysis process requires a special method known as Estimative Methodology where the 
predictive analysis presented regardless of the configuration will be able to accurately predict several key variables 
to be presented through several levels of analysis to customers as decision making material. 

 
Figure 1. Tren Isu Politik Dunia 

Source: Clark (2019). Intelligence Analysis 
 
Efforts to carry out predictive analysis of potential threats of terrorism in the future are important because terrorism 
itself has been classified as a Political Situation Issue Decomposition as one of the trends in world strategic political 
issues. The picture above describes that the threat of terrorism is included in the strategic intelligence issue whose 
data continues to be explored. This is relevant to the development of the main characteristics of the role of modern 
intelligence, namely: 
a. Analysis can take many forms by utilizing multiple sources in an effort to obtain more complete data and 

information. Some of the sources include special expertise from the academic, social media, or industrial 
domains. 

b. Analysis of any subject is an ongoing process. Customers are increasingly in need of intelligence support on 
a daily basis regarding several issues, both general and specific. 

2. Methodology 
Prediction in an intelligence product is a crucial thing needed by decision makers (Coker, 2014). Through the use 
of Estimative Methodology, various predictive analysis processes are carried out in order to obtain high validity 
and reliability of information so as to achieve a reliable level of analysis so that predictions on the future condition 
of an intelligence object can be estimated. Different estimation methods are used in different conditions. Several 
models of estimative methodology, one of which is applied to military intelligence through a predictive analysis 
process, include (Clark, 2019). 
a. Extrapolation Models. This prediction method is the most conservative method and is suitable for short-term 



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estimation. In its simplest form, extrapolation, using historical performance as a basis, to indicate future 
directions. (Determining the estimated object variable extrapolated to the future without changing the variable). 

b. Projection Models. In this model, it is done by predicting various possible futures based on the assumption 
that the forces that have prevailed in the past will change, while extrapolation assumes that the forces do not 
change (Determining one variable that is considered the most dominant or most influential in the future). 

c. Model Forecasting (Forecasting). The prediction model in this intelligence activity is to determine the 
alternative future of the target, not just the most likely future. However, being able to formulate long-term 
alternatives and scenarios that are most likely to occur in the future (Determining new variables outside of 
existing variables but still having relevance among them). 

d. Of the three forecasting models that lead to the emergence of new variables when forecasting is carried out, 
the next step is to determine which of these variables has the greatest effect but has a low probability of 
occurrence (High Impact Low Probability). The result of High Impact Low Probability (HILP) is a 
Demonstration Scenario and the process to determine HILP is carried out through the following stages: 
1) Determining the variables that are considered to have the most significant impact on the outcome 
because this will be analyzed continuously. 
2) Develop a logical description of the analysis of several variables or forces that are expected to have the 
least impact. This is important in determining the indicators that need to be monitored during the predictive 
analysis process. 
3) Determine the single most significant factor that can trigger a sudden and comprehensive change to the 
object of analysis. 
4) Carry out a brainstorming process regarding the breadth of experience of each intelligence agent in an 
effort to find the most likely strengths or variables, which are unpredictable but can change the entire analysis 
result suddenly. 
5) Always carry out monitoring of the indicators that have been determined to prevent them from getting 
out of the way of analysis. 
6) Identify all of the estimated factors that will either lead to good or bad outcomes. 

 
Figure 2. Illustration of Estimative Methodology 

Source: Clark (2019), Intelligence Analysis 
 
Determining an estimate for future global conditions can be done by studying the strategic environment in the 
military, political and economic as well as social aspects which tend to change rapidly. These problems have a 



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strength component that can be identified using variants of the strategy methodology. Forecasts of changes in these 
forces are analyzed through trends and the resulting events then between one event/trend are linked together 
through techniques such as cross-impact analysis. The result is a "most likely" future forecast made in a scenario 
format. If the forecasts made work well, it will encourage policy makers to make decisions and for the intelligence 
world, will result in action in response to real and unreal threats. 
In order to get valid and reliable prediction results, several processes are carried out, including brainstorming. This 
step is very important in determining the six main questions on the object of estimation or called the Six-pointed 
Star which includes "Who, What, When, Where, Why and How". (Hart, 2012). In addition, through the 
brainstorming stage, it will be possible to determine the key assumption check stage, which is a hypothesis that 
has been declared true and is part of defining the problem or as a product of the final assessment. 
3. Result 
The existence of the threat of terrorism can be understood as part of a hybrid war that combines military and non-
military threats that occur in peacetime to achieve the goal of the threat in the form of the results of traditional 
military warfare, for example territorial control or conquest. The threat of terrorism in principle can achieve the 
objectives of conventional war without triggering actual conflict. Therefore, being faced with modern war doctrine 
and a complex spectrum of threats is necessary if the Military Campaign as part of War Military Operations is 
time to transform with strategic objectives, one of which is the ability to deal with the threat of terrorism (Anderson, 
1998). 
As a basis for thinking and acting, of course, the Military Campaign must be based on a doctrine that can be 
adaptive to the mission objectives to be achieved, including overcoming the threat of terrorism. In the future, the 
Military Campaign doctrine needs to be able to accommodate the way of acting in joint TNI operations to be 
deployed when facing threats in the category of terrorism threats. Therefore, it is necessary to make an effort or 
implement predictive analysis in order to determine the form of the military campaign doctrine in the future based 
on several variables that will be determined next. 
In carrying out Predictive Analysis, it is necessary to carry out several stages which will later be processed through 
several predictive analysis models, both extrapolation, projection and Forecast (Forecasting). The steps taken 
based on the research focus are the Dynamics of the Threat of Terrorism to the Transformation of the Doctrine of 
the Indonesian Military Campaign to Realize National Security, namely: 
a. Determining a condition of an entity whose existence can be predicted based on past conditions to the future. 

The entity that is focused here is the Military Campaign Doctrine. 
b. Determine the forces or several factors that affect the existence of the entity which in this case is the Military 

Campaign Doctrine. The forces or factors that influence it are the Threat Spectrum, the Dynamics of the 
Strategic Environment, and the Tradition or History of the Nation's Struggle (Thomas Aquinas and Hugo 
Grotius, 1631). These three factors will be used as variables that are fixed / will not change in the future even 
though their value will increase or decrease as an Extrapolation Model. 

c. In the three forces or factors, one factor is determined which is predicted to have the most dominant influence 
or experience the highest dynamics. It will be used predictive analysis with the Projection Model in this case 
is the Threat Spectrum. 

 
Variable/ 

Model of Predictive Analysis Extrapolation Projection Forecasting 

Threat Steady Dominant None 
Strategic Environment Steady Steady None 
History Steady Steady None 
War Strategy None None Dominant (HILP) 

Figure 3. Variable Matrix of Military Campaign Doctrine vs Model Predictive Analysis 
Source: Clark (2019), Intelligence Analysis, processed 
 

d. Starting from the extrapolation and projection models, a new force or factor is determined which is predicted 
to emerge as a new force that can occur or directly impact the Military Campaign Doctrine entity and this 



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model is referred to as the Forecast Model. The forces that are estimated to appear are New War Strategies. 
The relationship between the variables and the predictive model of analysis can be seen in Figure 3. 

e. Determine predictions of the future state of the Military Campaign Doctrine as an entity or model target based 
on the assessment of each force. Each strength will be measured or weighed based on its weight. The dominant 
strength will be measured in this prediction through several estimation tools, including Regression and Monte 
Carlo Simulation. 

4. Discussion 
Based on the results of the predictive analysis above, it is found that from the three fixed variables used for 
extrapolation, one dominant variable will be obtained, namely Threat as a result of the projection. This indicates 
that the Military Campaign Doctrine in the future must be adaptive to the dynamics of threats that occur where the 
threat of terrorism is included. So it is appropriate if the potential threat of terrorism needs to be predicted in the 
future so that the doctrine that is prepared is in accordance with the needs of military operations. 
Specifically also obtained prediction results with forecasting that War Strategy will turn out to be a new variable 
that appears and is in accordance with the rules of predictive analysis, so this is an indication that for the future 
war strategy will continue to transform even though the possibility is small but the effect is very large (High 
Implact Low Probability ). This condition is very relevant because the battle strategy if predicted will not change 
much from the classical theory of strategy which states that “a coherent expression of a process that identifies the 
ends, ways, and means designed to achieve a certain goal. Mathematically, we might express this as “Strategy = 
Ends + Ways + Means.” Ends are the objectives or desired outcomes of a given strategy. The term end-state is 
synonymous with ends. An end or ends comprises the goal of the strategy. Ways are actions". (Lykke, 1998) 

 
Figure 4. Theoretical Implementation of Strategy 

Source: Deibel (2007), Foreign Affair Strategies 
 
The next step after successfully determining a new variable from the forecasting model which is a variable with a 
High Impact Low Probability character, is to design a Demonstration Scenario. The scenario, which is the product 
of the High Impact Low Probability analysis, can be generated if an intelligence analyst is able to identify the High 
Impact Outcome and then determine a logical way to achieve it. There are several ways to get High Impact 
Outcome, one of them is by using an alternative version of the Demonstration Scenario, namely Branch-point 
Scenario.  
The main function of the demonstration scenario is to pay more attention to the results of the analysis of the branch-
point scenario than the final results of the analysis. So the new War Strategy as HILP, for an intelligence analyst 



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will not focus on the War Strategy, but rather on how to realize the new war strategy because it has the greatest 
impact even though it is unlikely to have an effect on the military campaign doctrine that will later faced with the 
war against terrorism. The stages in getting the best scenario in determining the best Military Campaign Doctrine 
generally follow the following phases are 
a. Determining the Problem. This leads to “What question will the new Military Campaign Doctrine actually 
answer? 
b. Identify what factors will influence the preparation of the Military Campaign Doctrine. In this phase, 
intelligence analysis will determine the main factors and priorities in the preparation of the Military Campaign 
Doctrine. 
c. Identify the most feasible solution to implement. In principle, there are several more scenarios in it, namely: 
Emergency Scenario (Created by positioning intelligence analysts as opponents), What-if Scenario unlimited 
(unconstrained) and What-if Scenario limited (constrained). 
d. Looking for the best solution in realizing the best Military Campaign Doctrine. This can be followed by 
designing a simulation of the New War Strategy as a result of forecasting the Military Campaign Doctrine. 
5. Conclusion 
Based on the estimation methodology on the potential of the war against terrorism on the transformation of doctrine, 
the conclusions based on the predictive analysis are: 
a. The potential for the war against terrorism has a very strong relevance to the prediction of changes in military 
campaign doctrine in the long term by producing new war strategies both in terms of ends-means-ways as a result 
of High Impact Low Probability. 
b. Through predictive analysis with extrapolation model, it is found that threats, strategic environment and 
tradition or history are variables that are expected to remain unchanged, especially in the short term in influencing 
the preparation of Military Campaign Doctrine. 
c. The Projection Model determines if Threat is the variable that changes the most so that it will affect changes 
in the Military Campaign Doctrine in the short to medium term. 
d. If war strategy is indeed determined as HILP in changing the formulation of military campaign doctrine, then 
to realize effective anticipatory measures, a comprehensive simulation is needed so that the resulting doctrine will 
be adaptive to changes in threats, strategic environment, traditions or history and future war strategies. 
Acknowledgement 
The author appreciates the insights from lecturers and colleagues and peers at Republic of Indonesia Defense 
University (RIDU). Valuable resources accessible at the Doctoral Study Program of Defense Sciences dan Library 
of RIDU also strengthen the author’s determination to write this article. However the views expressed in this article 
are the author’s (except otherwise specified) and do not reflect the official stance Ministry of Defence of the 
Republic of Indonesia and RIDU. The author also would like to thank the referees for their comments. 

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