5_Schweitzer.indd 307Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315.DOI: 10.15201/hungeobull.64.4.5 Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 2015 (4) 307–315. Introduction About one-fourth of the territory of Hun- gary is fl oodplain area, protected by 4,220 km of fl ood-control dykes. The streams are divided between the systems of two major rivers, the Tisza and the Danube. In the areas endangered by fl oods 2.5 million people live on almost 700 sett lements. This geomorpho- logical surface accommodates almost 32% of railways, 15% of public roads and more than 2,000 industrial plants. Such structures are lo- cated encircled by 19,000 to 20,000 km2 of val- uable agricultural land. The large-scale fl ood regulation works following the formation of the Tisza Valley Flood Regulation Association in 1846, primarily the construction of dykes along the Danube, the Tisza and their major tributaries, changes of the alignment of main channels, the creation of side-branches and main defence lines confi ning fl oodways, the establishment of artifi cial channel sections, the cut-off of bends, the drainage of swamps, the improvement of navigation conditions, the prevention of ice-jam and ice-free fl oods and investments observing water manage- ment and land utilization aspects were the most comprehensive activity of nature trans- formation in Europe of that time and also the largest-scale regional development pro- gramme in Hungary to date. Aft er 150 years it became clear that the con- cept was not correct in all aspects due to po- litical and economic decision making, for in- stance, sett ing navigation goals allowing too narrow active fl oodplains, draining swamps on the lower fl oodplain levels, prioritizing the interests of large-scale agricultural culti- vation, defi cient design and implementation of main canals (Ihrig, D. 1952). We are aware that since then the stability of embankments has been reduced, the transport capacity of large rivers has increased aft er regulation, current velocities have increased, low-water Strategy or disaster: New-style river regulation as an issue of national security Ferenc SCHWEITZER1 Abstract Protection against fl oods along the Tisza, Danube and their major tributaries have become an issue of state security signifi cance since nearly 2.5 million lives are aff ected. The fl oods of 1999 and 2000 on the Tisza and the 2013 fl ood on the Danube demonstrated that the 150-year-old system was corrected at the expense of outstanding fi nancial investment and human eff ort although it is clear that the fl ood-protection structures built observing contemporary prescriptions are not able to provide the necessary protection. With the rising fl ood levels and other reasons (including climate change, tectonic movements, changes in river mechanism and others), their protection potential will be further reduced in the future. The warning signs are gett ing more and more frequent. Since 1864 there have been almost 30 disastrous fl oods on the Tisza alone. Over the past quarter of a century there happened ten high fl oods, during which the fl ood-control system could not ensure the safe conveyance of fl ood waves. The changes on the Danube were also very remarkable in spite of the major water engineering interventions along the Hungarian section of the river. Keywords: river regulation, national security, fl oods, Tisza, Danube 1 DSc, research professor emeritus. Geographical Institute, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences HAS, H-1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 43. E-mail: schweitzer.ferenc@csfk .mta.hu Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315.308 beds have incised deeply and deeper channels have led to the sinking of the groundwater table, which – according to Pálfai, I. (2004) – increased susceptibility to drought. We also know that the narrowing of the low fl oodplain level within dykes results in rapid sedimenta- tion on the active fl oodplain, the surface of which rises and, thus, the levels and durations of fl oods of equal height are increased. The Trianon Peace Treaty dissected the uni- fi ed fl ood-control system of historical Hungary. As a consequence, Hungary became defence- less as far as water management is concerned and exposed to fl oods. River regimes in the catchments encircled by the Eastern Alps and the Carpathians could not be infl uenced. Before 1976 the primary measure of fl ood security was the diff erence between the high- est fl ood level observed to date and the height of embankment crown. Since 1976 this value is only registered for some river sections. The desirable difference was raised from 70 cm in 1852 to 100–150 cm in 1934, when the dimensions of the minimum dyke cross- sections were also specifi ed. The average dif- ference for the Tisza River was 100–120 m in 1956 and its minimum was above 70 cm along the whole length of the river. Today the average is below 40 cm and over more than a hundred kilometres long section it is below 20 cm. As a consequence, during the 2000 flood a temporary dyke had to be built along a 155-km-long section of the Middle Tisza and the existing dykes had to be raised (Schweitzer, F. and Nagy, I. 2011). Since 1960 the aff orestation of active fl ood- plains began, summer dykes and resorts ap- peared, arable and grazing lands were aban- doned and invasive plants (like false indigo, Amorpha fruticosa) started to spread. All these contributed to the rapid rise of fl ood levels and increased fl oodplain sedimentation. Discussion The water management investments in dyke construction have a lasting impact, for decades or even centuries. Replacements are slow and costly to accomplish. For instance, the active fl oodplain of the Körös Rivers was designed to have only 50–70 m width in the late 19th cen- tury. Beyond the Hungarian-Romanian border, however, fl oodplain width is 150–200 m. There- fore, water is funnelled into the narrow sections, fl ood waves pile up and result in dam breach- ing, boil activity and excess water inundations. To mitigate this hazard the active fl oodplain in Hungary should be broadened through the backward placement of flood-control dykes (Schweitzer, F. 2001). Engineering interventions are not able to fully eliminate problems. Regional development and landscape rehabilitation are outstanding tasks. In order to prevent disasters political decisions are indispensable. It is to be noted that in dry periods the awareness of fl ood risk is greatly reduced in the general public and among most of the political leaders. However, when fl oods occur again, like in November 1998, when 17 dry years were followed by fl ood and led to catastrophic situation on the Upper Tisza, opin- ions and att itudes have to be rethought, even by those who refute the existence of fl ood hazard. On the catchments of rivers in Hungary – with special regard to natural and economic processes in the active fl oodplains – fl ood lev- els can rise signifi cantly. The reduction of fl ood conductivity of the fl oodway amounted to 3 cm per year for the period 1970–2010 (Schweitzer, F. and Nagy, I. 2011). In the drainage basin of the Tisza River, e.g. on the upper section in the Carpathian fore- land, there were 19 destructive fl oods aft er 1947 (Vágás, I. 1982, 1984). Researchers see the cause of this in unmerciful deforestation, mining activ- ities and, as a consequence, common landslides and soil erosion inducing enhanced sediment transport. Although the signifi cance of defor- estation is debated by some, I. Szikura (personal communication, 2001), a professor of botanic at the Uzhgorod National University emphasizes that the forest foliage intercepts up to half of rainfall, reduces snowmelt to half and increases the amount of infi ltration and storage of water in the soil. The fact is also important to note that in the North-Eastern Carpathians the upper timber line has moved 200–300 m lower. 309Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315. The sediment transport capacity of rivers in the Carpathian Basin has ever been large. Even the sett lement on the isolated higher fl oodplain levels rising above the low fl ood- plain level were occasionally inundated by fl oods because on the low levels around them silts accumulated. Along the present-day Tisza River, the divide surface of NE to SW align- ment, built up of loess and loess-like deposits, was dissected by high fl ood discharges, e.g. at the breach of the Mirhó Stream. These loca- tions could have been sites of channel changes of the Tisza during fl oods. Between them the paleochannels of the Tisza can be detected (Figure 1) showing huge meanders fi lled con- tinuously with excess water (Figure 2). Very rapid urbanization in the drainage basin further enhanced the natural rate of sediment transport over the 150 years of fl ood defence and sedimentation accelerated on certain sections, manifested in the accu- mulation of point-bars and natural levees. The consequence was that the heights of the dykes had to be raised time aft er time, since 1850 on 5–6 occasions (Figures 3 and 4). If nothing changes, they have to be raised further (Schweitzer, F. 2001). In the active fl oodplain of the Tisza River the accumu- lation of sediment has reached 200–240 cm south of Szolnok and 400 cm on the Vajdaság (Vojvodina) section in Serbia, while along the Körös rivers accumulation amounted to 140–160 cm. The rapid growth in the rate of sedimentation in the active fl oodplain is indicated by the distribution of 137Cs in the cross-section at Szolnok (Braun, M. et al. 2001) (Photo 1). Since the Chernobil nuclear accident (1986) sedimentation estimated from the concentration of 137Cs activity is 30–35 cm until 2000. In author’s opinion this rapid sed- imentation aff ects the water levels of lakes in Hungary, including Lake Balaton. Fig. 1. Waterlogged areas in the Tisza valley prior to water regulation (edited by Schweitzer, F. 2000) Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315.310 Fig. 3. Rising of the fl ood control embankments since river regulation (aft er Schweitzer, F. 2001) Fig 2. Relationship between fl oods and inundation hazard on the engineering geomorphological map of the Mirhó-fok. (eds: Schweitzer, F. and Balogh, J. 2001). – 1 = low fl oodplain; 2 = areas with inundation hazard; 3 = high fl oodplain; 4 = areas suitable for water retention 311Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315. Fig. 4. Rise of the embankments (edited by Schweitzer, F. aft er Vágás, I. 1982) In the active fl oodplains of rivers huge amounts of sediment arriving from the catch- ments are deposited. Evidenced by the his- tory of dykes along the Tisza (raised on 6–7 occasions), the further heightening of fl ood- control embankments is no long-term solu- tion (Schweitzer, F. 2009). The fl oodways are less and less suitable to conduct fl oods of both the Danube and the Tisza. In 2000, when the largest ever fl ood passed down on the Tisza, the fl ood dis- charge was only slightly higher than in 1970. Maximum fl ood level, however, was at 1,041 cm at Szolnok, 1.5 m higher than before. The only explanation lies in the deterioration of fl ood conductivity caused by sedimentation in the active fl oodplain (Table 1). Unfortunately, this process has been ne- glected in fl ood hazard research. Disregarding sedimentation, dyke heights had to be raised in every 20–25 years over the last 150 years (Schweitzer, F. 2000; Nagy, I. et al. 2001). If this deterioration continues, the high fl ood waves of the last decades will return within Photo 1. Section South from Szolnok with intense fl oodplain sedimentation. – 1 = alluvial meadow soil formed prior to fl ood control; 2 = 200–230 cm thick siltation; 3 = 30–40 cm thick sediments deposited between 1986 and 2000. (Photo by Schweitzer, F. 2001) Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315.312 15–20 years. This can only be prevented by governmental interference. Sedimentation in active fl oodplains is con- siderable and will lead higher and higher fl ood levels in the future, as it can be seen on the example of the Tisza, Danube or Körös rivers. A new fl ood-control concept is also necessary for the Danube which would em- ploy new approaches to fl ood-level reduction (e.g. fl oodway reconstruction, water diver- sion, storage and others) and the raising of the design height of dykes only where the previous techniques remained unsuccessful. In many places of the fl oodways of large riv- ers it is visible that the zones where fl oods are conveyed unhindered are signifi cantly reduced through groynes, higher summer dykes (levees), forestation or housing devel- opment (Figure 5). Dense vegetation in the fl oodway and next to the channel promotes the sett ling out of sediment load. Therefore, if this geomorphic process is neglected, higher fl ood levels are to be expected in the future. Within a reason- able time there is no real chance for a new fl ood channel to form and the opportunity for raising dykes and building reservoirs in the low fl oodplain level is restricted or even excluded by both engineering and fi nancial considerations. In addition to these three op- tions, a fourth one has to be mentioned: the preparation of society for a new-style river regulation, establishment of new channels. Since the beginning of river regulation ef- forts 150 years elapsed. Since then the active Table 1. Maximum fl ood levels at river gauges of the Middle Tisza region in 1999 and 2000 Gauge 1999 maximum in cm 1999 maximum related to design fl ood level, cm 2000 maximum, cm 1999 maximum related to design fl ood level, cm Growth of maxi- mum fl ood levels compared to pre- 1999 period, cm Tiszafüred Kisköre Tiszaroff Tiszabő Szolnok Martfű Tiszaug Csongrád 835 978 1,033 1,023 974 926 844 891 +21 +47 +39 +19 +13 +3 -36 -80 881 1,030 1,088 1,080 1,041 1,003 932 994 +67 +99 +94 +76 +80 +80 +52 +23 93 122 130 131 132 115 89 59 Source: Nagy, I., KÖTIVIZIG, 2001. fl oodplains have fi lled up, narrowed and higher and higher fl oods of increasing fre- quency and duration are predicted, primarily as a consequence of sedimentation in active embankment levee state border current narrowest cross-section, 170 m original narrowest cross-section, 665 m Fig 5. Shrinkage of active fl oodplain of Tisza in Serbia due to the construction of levees (eds: Nagy, I. and Schweitzer, F. 2011 by using Google Earth images) 313Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315. fl oodplains and developments in the em- bayments of low fl oodplain levels, along the Danube at Pilismarót, Pomáz, Békásmegyer, Káposztásmegyer (Budapest) and Adony and along the Tisza in the environs of Szeged and Hódmezővásárhely. The plans and deci- sions of new river regulation have to be made soon. The Department of Geomorphology, Geographical Research Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences , and the author of the present paper have prepared, based on geo- morphological and hydrogeographical inves- tigations such plans for fl ood control along the Danube at Budapest, Paks and Komárom, for the Tisza at Szeged or for Lake Balaton. Intensive urbanization in the Balaton catch- ment, the refi lling of the karst reservoir in the wake of closing bauxite mines since the 1990s and the re-emergence of karst springs will increase the amount of water stored in Lake Balaton. A turning point in the develop- ment of the region was the construction of the southern railway. Its planners designed the track at 107.7 m elevation, higher than maximum lake water level. In the winter of 1860 raised water level and ice accumulation destroyed the railway track. As a reaction, the Balaton shore was enforced, some sections – particularly on the southern shore – were fi lled up, reclaimed areas protected by stone revetments were allott ed for development. Datings by 137Cs show that the lake bott om was aff ected by sedimentation of almost 20 cm since the beginning of nuclear experi- ments (1953) and another almost 10 cm since the Chernobil event (1986). Therefore, in the future the Siófok Sluice, already existing in Roman times, and the Sió canal is to be sup- plemented with a new outlet, gravitationally conducting water into the Mura River during fl oods (Schweitzer, F. 2014). Conclusions The study of fl ood levels shows that the rise has considerably accelerated and the height of fl ood waves surpassed the crown of the embankment along more than 200 km length of the Tisza (Nagy, I. et al. 2001). As a result of the deteriorated conductivity of fl ood chan- nels, for instance, the growth of fl ood waves on the Tisza between 1970 and 2013 reached 2–3 cm per year. This can be observed on the Danube, where average increase amounted to 1.40 cm per year between Vác and Budapest over the same period, on the Körös, where it was 1.60 cm per year at Békésszentandrás since 1890 and in case of the Ipoly. In practice it means that if the 2000 Tisza fl ood were re- peated today, the fl ood channel would not be able to convey that fl ood wave and only the emergency reservoirs could give some hope to avoid disaster. The marked rise of fl ood levels could be interpreted as warning for the Danube too as 20–25 cm sedimentation is expected in the active Danube fl oodplain in the Danube Bend, north of Budapest, in the next 10 years (Figure 6). The key to fl ood control in Budapest, a city of 1.8 million, inhabited from Roman times, is river regulation. The main channel of the Danube crosses the city in 31 km length. Together with the banks of tributaries the length of flood-control dykes amounts to 83.6 km. As att ested by writt en documents available since 1112, fl ood hazard has ever belonged to city life. The greatest disaster was the ice-jam fl ood of 1838 (Figure 7). After the flood plans for not only the Danube section of Pest-Buda, but for all major rivers in Hungary were prepared and sub- mitt ed to the government. Naturally, lack of fi nancing in times of the revolution and war of independence prevented the implementa- Fig. 6. Rising of peaks of largest ice-free fl ood levels on the Danube section at Budapest between 1880 and 2013 (completed aft er Dégen, I.) Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315.314 tion of plans. Instead the fi lling of low-lying areas, Danube branches between one-time islands, abandoned channels, backswamps, began mostly using industrial waste and household garbage. Between 1871 and 1875 the Soroksár Danube branch was closed by Gubacs dam and the channel section with numerous bars downstream Pest was narrowed down, re- sulting in the sedimentation of the Soroksár branch which continues to our days. In the spring of 1876 two fl ood waves similar to the 1838 level occurred on the Danube again endangering Budapest. This was commonly explained by the closure of the Soroksár Danube and its eliminated water conduction. Over the past 60–70 years ice-free fl ood levels have remarkably risen in Budapest: 1956: 721 cm, 1975: 776 cm, 1991: 781 cm, 2002: 848 cm, 2006: 860 cm and 2013: 890 cm. Modifi cations of the fl oodway signify an impending disaster. In order to avert it, au- thor proposes a solution aff ecting the left - bank zone between Vác and Göd, where top- ographic conditions are favourable for fl ood hazard alleviation and urban infrastructure is not an obstacle. Another option is to pro- tect the 800,000 inhabitants of the historical city applying mobile dykes along the main defence line and the tributaries. To reduce fl ood hazard, the active fl ood- plains of rivers have to be widened on the Hungarian, Slovakian, Subcarpathian and Vojvodina sections, water storage on the low floodplain level, the creation of new fl ood channels and setback of fl ood-control dykes and locally the broadening of active fl oodplains to the margins of higher levels as natural levees (Figure 4). The areas suitable for fl ood and excess wa- ter storage have to be utilized for that pur- pose in the regional plans, excluded from development, land purchase have to be pro- hibited and land use regulated in the interest of fl ood-control strategy. Disinterest in fl ood protection and national security is manifested in public thinking which allowed the align- ment of the M6 motorway cutt ing through the Adony embayment, which could have been capable to store considerable amounts of floodwater and reserve drinking water with gravels of Danube origin in great thick- ness between Ercsi and Kulcs (Nagy, I. et al. 2010). Instead of momentary solutions poli- tics have to decide for change. If this does not happen, fl oods would require much suff ering and human toll in the country – not to speak of the enormous expenses of reconstruction. The estimated damage associated with the 2006 Danube and Tisza fl oods surpassed 135 billion HUF. In the case of the Tisza fl ood in 2000 eight million sand bags were built-in in the dykes and fl ood defence involved addi- tional high costs. The 2013 Danube fl ood also caused huge damage. In Hungary the tasks to be undertaken now are similar to those in the 1830s and 1940s. Long-term strategic decisions have to be made in order the ensure security for the population living in river valleys and fl ood- plains and for agriculture and industrial structures. Fig 7. Flood damage map of 1838 superimposed on the current area of Budapest. Google Earth images (ed. by Takács, K. in 2009 aft er Károlyi, Z. 1960) 315Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315. REFERENCES Braun, M., Dezső, Z. and Hadady, Gy. 2001. A Tisza balpart, Szolnok övzátony fejlődésének rekonstruk- ciójáról (On the reconstruction of the natural levee at Szolnok, left bank of the Tisza River). Debrecen, Manuscript. Ihrig, D. 1952. A magyar vízszabályozás története (History of river regulation in Hungary), Budapest, VITUKI. Károlyi, Z. 1960. A hordalékmozgás jellegzetességei folyók medrében (Characteristics of sediment move- ments in river channel). Hungarian Geographical Bulletin / Földrajzi Értesítő 9. (1): 90–96. Nagy, I., Ligetvári, F. and Schweitzer, F. 2010. Tisza river valley: future prospects. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 59. (4): 361–370. Nagy, I., Schweitzer, F. and Alföldi, L. 2001. A hullámtéri hordalék-lerakódás (övzátony) (Sedimentation on active fl oodplain, natural levee formation). Vízügyi Közlemények 83. (4): 539–564. Pálfai, I. 2004. Belvizek és aszályok Magyarországon (Excess water and drought periods in Hungary). Budapest, KVM. Schweitzer, F. 2000. A magyarországi folyó- szabályozások geomorfológiai vonatkozásai (Geomorphological aspects of river regulation in Hungary). Hungarian Geographical Bulletin / Földrajzi Értesítő 50. (1–4): 63–72. Schweitzer, F. 2009. Strategy or disaster: fl ood pre- vention related to issues and actions in the Tisza River Basin. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 58. (1): 3–17. Schweitzer, F. and Nagy, I. 2011. Döntési kényszer a hazai árvízvédelemben (Force to make decisions in the fl ood protection of Hungary). In Katasztrófák tanulságai. Ed.: Schweitzer, F. Budapest, MTA CSFK Földrajztudományi Intézet, 13–68. Takács, K. 2009. Ha a jég az úr: jeges árvizek a Dunán. (When the ice is the lord: icy fl oods on the Danube). A Földgömb 2. 60–69. Vágás, I. 1982. A Tisza árvizei (Floods of the Tisza river). Budapest, VÍZDOK. Vágás, I. 1984. A folyók vízhozamának és vízállásának kapcsolatai (Water discharge and water stage on rivers). Hidrológiai Közlöny 64. (3): 142–147. ADDITIONAL SOURCES Lóczy, D., Fábián, Sz.Á. and Schweitzer, F. 2008. River action and landslides in Hungary. In Issues in geomorphology and environment. Eds.: Basu, S.R. and De, S.K. Kolkata, ACB, 1–15. Mosonyi, E. 1999. A mértékadó árvíz. (The design fl ood stage). Vízügyi Közlemények 81. (2): 201–220. Schweitzer, F., Balogh. J. and Kis, É. 2008. Hullámterek vizsgálata a Dél-Alföldön. (Studies on fl ood plains in southern areas of the Hungarian Lowland). Hungarian Geographical Bulletin / Földrajzi Értesítő 57. (1–2): 111–123. Somlyódy, L. (ed.) 2000. A hazai vízgazdálkodás stratégiai kérdései. (Strategical questions in water management in Hungary). Budapest, MTA Vízgazdálkodási Tudományos Kutatócsoport. Varga, M. and Váradi, J. 2010. Vízvisszatartás - tározás - vidékfejlesztés: javaslatok a vízgazdálkodás hosszú távú fejlődési irányaihoz. (Water-retention – storage – ru- ral development: recommendations to long-term development directions of water management). Budapest, MTA Történett udományi Intézet. Schweitzer, F. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 64 (2015) (4) 307–315.316 Since the disintegration of the USSR, the Western world has shown an ever-growing interest in Ukraine, its people and its economy. As the second-largest country in Europe, Ukraine has a strategic geographical position at the crossroads between Europe and Asia. It is a key country for the transit of energy resources from Russia and Central Asia to the European Union, which is one reason why Ukraine has become a priority partner in the neighbourhood policy of the EU. Ukraine has pursued a path towards the democratic consolidation of statehood, which encompasses vigorous economic changes, the development of institutions and integration into European and global political and economic structures. In a complex and controversial world, Ukraine is building collaboration with other countries upon the principles of mutual understanding and trust, and is establishing initiatives aimed at the creation of a system that bestows international security. This recognition has prompted the Institute of Geography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Kyiv) and the Geographical Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Budapest) to initiate cooperation, and the volume entitled “Ukraine in Maps” is the outcome of their joint eff ort. The intention of this publication is to make available the re- sults of research conducted by Ukrainian and Hungarian geographers, to the English-speaking public. This atlas follows in the footsteps of previ- ous publications from the Geographical Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Similar to the work entitled South Eastern Europe in Maps (2005, 2007), it includes 64 maps, dozens of fi gures and tables accompanied by an explana- tory text, writt en in a popular, scientifi c manner. The book is an att empt to outline the geographical sett ing and geopolitical context of Ukraine, as well as its history, natural environment, population, sett lements and economy. The authors greatly hope that this joint venture will bring Ukraine closer to the reader and make this neighbouring country to the European Union more familiar, and consequently, more appealing. Ukraine in Maps Edited by: Kocsis, K., Rudenko, L. and Schweitzer, F. Institute of Geography National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Geographical Research Institute Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Kyiv–Budapest, 2008, 148 p. ------------------------------------------ Price: EUR 35.00 Order: Geographical Institute RCAES HAS Library H-1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45. 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