Tisza River Valley: future prospects 361 Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 59 (4) (2010) pp. 361–370. Tisza River Valley: future prospects István Nagy1, Ferenc Ligetvári2 and Ferenc Schweitzer3 Abstract Hungary is among the countries in Europe most severely endangered by fl oods. Fourteen rivers entering Hungary from the mountainous area of the Carpathian Basin have high channel slope gradients which serve as a source of considerable fl ood hazard. The disas- trous fl oods during the last decades in Hungary have been caused mainly by Tisza River and their tributaries situated on the eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain (Alföld). These cases make necessary a thorough analysis of the extreme fl ood events to be carried out and the drawing of conclusions with recommendations to be made as for the immedi- ate legal interventions. The present article outlines a river regulation program on the basis of a new concept. The purpose of this program beyond the increase of fl ood security is to improve the quality of life of the population concerned, extend water supply capacities, preserve natural resources and to provide fl ood risk management. Keywords: fl ood hazard, river regulation, water management, Tisza River Introduction Tisza is the second largest river of Hungary. Its entire watershed (157,135 km2) is to be found within the Carpathian Basin. Tisza rises from the Marmarosh Mountains (Ukrainian Carpathians) and fl ows aft er 1,260 km in the Danube at Titel (Serbia). From the point where the main branch of the Tisza reaches the Great Hungarian Plain 5–6 cm/km maximum gradients prevail. Along the lower stretches of the river they are reduced to 2–3 cm/km. Therefore, the river meanders lazily, forming sinuous loops, fens and oxbow lakes. The Tisza oft en changed course prior to its regulation, and frequent fl oods used at Szolnok, could be 63-fold (60 and 3,800 m3/sec, respectively). This phenomenon is due to the 8 major tributaries of the river, namely Bodrog, Sajó, Bódva, Hernád, Szamos, Kraszna, Körös and Maros rivers (Figure 1). These tributaries entering Hungary have high channel slope gradients, which serves oft en as a source of regular fl ood hazards. The regime of rivers fl owing into the plains 1 KÖTI-KÖVIZIG Middle-Tisza District Environment and Water Directorate. H-5002 Szolnok, Ságvári krt. 4. E-mail: kotikovizig@ kotikovizig.hu 2 Szent István University, H-2103 Gödöllő, Páter K. utca 1. E-mail: ligetvari.ferenc@mkk.szie.hu 3 Geographical Research Institute HAS, H-1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45. E-mail: schweitf@mtafk i.hu 362 Fi g. 1 . C at ch m en t a re a of th e C ar pa th ia n Ba si n (K oc si s, K . a nd S ch w ei tz er , F . e ds . 2 00 9. a ft e r V IT U K I) 363 shows extreme values. The upper reaches of tributaries are particularly wild, especially, dangerous are those of the Upper Tisza and of the Körös (the latt er empties into the Lower Tisza) where the water level might rise 8–10 m within 20–30 hours following intense rainfall (Kocsis, K. and Schweitzer, F. eds. 2009). To mitigate the extreme fl ood hazard, drainage regulation measures and the con- struction of fl ood control embankments started nearly 200 years ago and their alteration has been continuous ever since. With the regulation of the Tisza its section has shortened by more than 460 km on the present-day territory of Hungary. All these have resulted in increasing fl ood subsidence, especially on the Upper Tisza. However, it may also result in grave situations developing on the Lower Tisza, dependent on the coincidence of, or dif- ference between high water stages of the tributaries. A new concept for fl ood prevention A detailed re-examination of the concept and regulation of the Hungarian fl ood prevention was carried out last time in the 1970s. In order to avoid the impending disasters the elaboration of a new strategy has become an urgent and imperative task by now (Photo 1 and 2, Table 1). The catastrophic fl oods of the last decades in Hungary have been The catastrophic fl oods of the last decades in Hungary have been caused not only by the major rivers (Danube and Tisza), but by their tribu-caused not only by the major rivers (Danube and Tisza), but by their tribu- taries as well. For instance, high water stages during the last 15 years in the taries as well. For instance, high water stages during the last 15 years in the catchment area of the Tisza River proved to be critical in 1998, 1999, 2000, catchment area of the Tisza River proved to be critical in 1998, 1999, 2000, Photo 1. Photo 1. Siltation of 2–3 cm thickness following the fl ood of 2000Siltation of 2–3 cm thickness following the fl ood of 2000 364 2001, 2006 and 2010. All these cases make necessary a thorough analysis of the 2001, 2006 and 2010. All these cases make necessary a thorough analysis of the extreme fl ood events to be carried out and the drawing of conclusions with extreme fl ood events to be carried out and the drawing of conclusions with recommendations to be made as for the immediate legal interventions.recommendations to be made as for the immediate legal interventions. Photo 2. Change in peak stages of fl oods between 2000 (actual) and 2050 (anticipated) Table 1. Major fl ood waves on Tisza River since 1973 (aft er I. Nagy) Year of occurrence Actual peak stage at Szolnok (cm) Under bed conditions of 2000 Aft er the 30 years occurrence, if no intervention follows Above the level of 1970 (909 cm) Above design fl ood stage (961 cm) Expected date of occurrence Anticipated peak stage due to further deterioration Above design fl ood stage (961 cm) 1977 1979 1980 1981 1998 1999 2000 880 904 873 885 897 974 1,041 940 975 930 940 903 977 1,041 – 14 – – – 16 80 2007 2009 2010 2011 2028 2030* 2050** 954 993 950 962 959 1,101 1,151 – 32 – 1 – 140 190 Occasion 7 6 3 7 4 4 * Aft er 31 years, ** Aft er 50 years 365 At present there is no fl ood security regulation, and probably this At present there is no fl ood security regulation, and probably this could be the cause of the absence of the systematic control and evaluation. The could be the cause of the absence of the systematic control and evaluation. The regulation on the design fl ood stages of the rivers (MÁSZ) published in 1976 regulation on the design fl ood stages of the rivers (MÁSZ) published in 1976 can be regarded only as planning prescription. The assessments and statistics can be regarded only as planning prescription. The assessments and statistics on the fl ood situations on the rivers do not deal with the fl ood security.on the fl ood situations on the rivers do not deal with the fl ood security. (Note: According to the public knowledge, in 1976 this prescription (Note: According to the public knowledge, in 1976 this prescription was constructed for a probability of the occurrence of the highest fl oods once was constructed for a probability of the occurrence of the highest fl oods once every 100 years. It was not valid for every river even then, but nowadays every 100 years. It was not valid for every river even then, but nowadays it is almost impossible to fi nd a river segment where it could be adopted. it is almost impossible to fi nd a river segment where it could be adopted. The build-up of the top level of the embankments was mostly based on the The build-up of the top level of the embankments was mostly based on the regulations for 1934 and the period before 1956. The situation, however, has regulations for 1934 and the period before 1956. The situation, however, has changed signifi cantly since then resulting in false concepts. According to the changed signifi cantly since then resulting in false concepts. According to the rules valid in the Netherlands, the embankments of rivers with high risk of rules valid in the Netherlands, the embankments of rivers with high risk of fl ooding must be constructed for a probability of the occurrence of the highest fl ooding must be constructed for a probability of the occurrence of the highest fl oods once in 1,250 years.)fl oods once in 1,250 years.) Before 1976 the measure of fl ood security was based on the diff erence Before 1976 the measure of fl ood security was based on the diff erence between the height of embankments and the highest level of former fl oods. between the height of embankments and the highest level of former fl oods. Since 1976 this kind of records on the rivers has not been made, only on some Since 1976 this kind of records on the rivers has not been made, only on some short segments. The recommended diff erence between the height of embank-short segments. The recommended diff erence between the height of embank- ment and the former highest high water stage was gradually increased by 70 ment and the former highest high water stage was gradually increased by 70 cm up to 100–150 cm between 1852 and 1934, and the minimum size of the cm up to 100–150 cm between 1852 and 1934, and the minimum size of the embankment section was also determined embankment section was also determined (fi gures 2 and 3).(fi gures 2 and 3). In 1956 the aver- In 1956 the aver- age value was 100–120 cm along the Tisza River, but it reached +70 cm almost age value was 100–120 cm along the Tisza River, but it reached +70 cm almost everywhere. At present this value is generally less than 40 cm and it does not everywhere. At present this value is generally less than 40 cm and it does not even reach +20 cm along the river at a length of several hundred kilometers. even reach +20 cm along the river at a length of several hundred kilometers. (As a result during the fl ood in 2000 a temporary dike had to be built and the (As a result during the fl ood in 2000 a temporary dike had to be built and the embankments had to be raised along a 155 km segment of Middle Tisza.)embankments had to be raised along a 155 km segment of Middle Tisza.) During the last 100 years the diff erence between the embankment During the last 100 years the diff erence between the embankment height and the highest level of fl oods along the Tisza River has never been as height and the highest level of fl oods along the Tisza River has never been as low as in the present low as in the present (Schweitzer, F. 2009). In Hungary great care was taken to the maintenance of the conditions In Hungary great care was taken to the maintenance of the conditions of the high-water (fl ood) bed and the free throughfl ow of the rivers until of the high-water (fl ood) bed and the free throughfl ow of the rivers until the 1960s. In 1960 the aff orestation of the fl oodplains, the building of inner, the 1960s. In 1960 the aff orestation of the fl oodplains, the building of inner, summer dikes and cott ages, the leaving of the pastures and ploughlands, the summer dikes and cott ages, the leaving of the pastures and ploughlands, the Fig. 2. Rising of the fl ood control embankments since river regulation (aft er Schweitzer, F. 2001) Low floodplain Low floodplainHigh floodplain High floodplain Siltation River channel and active floodplain SiltationLevee LeveeLevee 366 spreading of the invasive species (e.g. spreading of the invasive species (e.g. acaciaacacia) began, which have largely con-) began, which have largely con- tributed to the fast rise of high-water levels and the increased accumulation tributed to the fast rise of high-water levels and the increased accumulation of the transported sediments. It can be stated that Hungary has given up the of the transported sediments. It can be stated that Hungary has given up the maintenance of the transmissivity of the active fl oodplain, only the construc-maintenance of the transmissivity of the active fl oodplain, only the construc- tion of the embankments was emphasized. Flood retention reservoirs were tion of the embankments was emphasized. Flood retention reservoirs were constructed only on the smaller streams. Hungary did not deal appropriately constructed only on the smaller streams. Hungary did not deal appropriately with the causes of the frequency, discharge, height and duration of the fl oods with the causes of the frequency, discharge, height and duration of the fl oods and with the probable consequences. The siltation of the river channels makes and with the probable consequences. The siltation of the river channels makes the rising of the embankments necessary, but it could be done only at some the rising of the embankments necessary, but it could be done only at some places. New storage capacities should be created, sometimes by means of places. New storage capacities should be created, sometimes by means of sacrifying populated areas. Technical solutions are just partly able to provide sacrifying populated areas. Technical solutions are just partly able to provide remedy for the problems. A novel examination of regional development, land-remedy for the problems. A novel examination of regional development, land- scape management and landscape rehabilitation are the issues to be addressed. scape management and landscape rehabilitation are the issues to be addressed. A new land use system on cultivated areas is to promote the establishment A new land use system on cultivated areas is to promote the establishment of wetland habitats which requires the participation of local people. To avoid of wetland habitats which requires the participation of local people. To avoid disasters the involvement of public-minded politicians might be instrumental. disasters the involvement of public-minded politicians might be instrumental. This common responsibility makes necessary to prepare the acts for legitimiza-This common responsibility makes necessary to prepare the acts for legitimiza- tion, which is a national security issue tion, which is a national security issue (Figure 4, Photo 3). (Figure 4, Photo 3). The fl ood security of an area is determined by the state of the weak-The fl ood security of an area is determined by the state of the weak- est points of the embankments. During the last two decades the number of est points of the embankments. During the last two decades the number of construction objects and traverses to be renovated or replaced has been on construction objects and traverses to be renovated or replaced has been on rise due to the increased water load caused by the aging of the embankments rise due to the increased water load caused by the aging of the embankments and the rising fl ood levels. Owing to damages, the fl ood-defence scheme and and the rising fl ood levels. Owing to damages, the fl ood-defence scheme and its future prospects must be revaluated. Remarkable fl ood level rise can be its future prospects must be revaluated. Remarkable fl ood level rise can be 4,0 4 ,5 1: 1 1:2 1:2 1:2 1:5 Profile in 1855 Profile in 1879 Standard profile after 1881 Standard profile after 1919 Profile standardized after 1970 Profile standardized after 2000 Standard profile after 1895 Profile to be raised by 2050 19,5 29,0 37,0 41,5 62,0 1970 189519191 ,5 1879 6,0 7 ,0 1881 1895 1919 1970 1879 52,4 m 75,0 m 100,2 m 130,5 m 2 2 2 2 1 ,5 Fig. 3. Rise of the embankments (aft er Vágás, I. 1982) 367 Photo 3. Photo 3. Floodplain sediments of Tisza River near SzolnokFloodplain sediments of Tisza River near Szolnok m Bf. 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 80 86,40 89,21 Alluvial meadow soil formed prior to flood control Infusion (reworked) loess Tisza riverbank prior to flood control Siltation over Tisza floodplain following flood control measures (1857) 84,00 82,60 Fig. 4. Siltation over Tisza fl oodplain at Alcsisziget, Szolnok (aft er Nagy, L., Schweitzer, F. and Alföldi, L. 2002) 368 expected in inland catchment areas because of natural processes and economic expected in inland catchment areas because of natural processes and economic shift s and other human interferences having taken place in the active fl ood-shift s and other human interferences having taken place in the active fl ood- plain. The conveyance capacity of the fl ood bed decreased by 3 cm per year plain. The conveyance capacity of the fl ood bed decreased by 3 cm per year along the Middle Tisza section between 1970 and 2010 (along the Middle Tisza section between 1970 and 2010 (Schweitzer, F., Nagy, L. and Alföldi, L. 2002). It means that in the case of the occurrence of a fl ood . It means that in the case of the occurrence of a fl ood similar to the one of 2000 the embankments could not prevent the river from similar to the one of 2000 the embankments could not prevent the river from overfl owing even if the excess water were led into the fl ood-control reservoir overfl owing even if the excess water were led into the fl ood-control reservoir at Tiszaroff . at Tiszaroff . (Figure 5)(Figure 5) There would be a similar situation at Tiszabecs if the 2001 fl ood There would be a similar situation at Tiszabecs if the 2001 fl ood happened again. Such and similar areas are still found in great number happened again. Such and similar areas are still found in great number between Khust and Titel. An immediate moratory must be declared on between Khust and Titel. An immediate moratory must be declared on building up these territories which are suitable for the establishment of building up these territories which are suitable for the establishment of retention reservoirs. retention reservoirs. The narrowing of the river channel jeopardizes vast tracts, among The narrowing of the river channel jeopardizes vast tracts, among others within densely populated areas. This is primarily not a technical prob-others within densely populated areas. This is primarily not a technical prob- lem, but specifi cally an administrative and political issue. Changes in the lem, but specifi cally an administrative and political issue. Changes in the catchments beyond the state border are also unfavourable. In Hungary litt le catchments beyond the state border are also unfavourable. In Hungary litt le emphasis have been put on monitoring of the role and operation of foreign emphasis have been put on monitoring of the role and operation of foreign reservoirs. Information derived from the daily data traffi c is scanty either.reservoirs. Information derived from the daily data traffi c is scanty either. The raising of the embankments in Subcarpathia, the fl ood-control The raising of the embankments in Subcarpathia, the fl ood-control reservoirs constructed at the meeting point of Tisza and Batár rivers as well reservoirs constructed at the meeting point of Tisza and Batár rivers as well as the restricted river bed of Tisza at the Serbian–Hungarian state border as the restricted river bed of Tisza at the Serbian–Hungarian state border resulted in new conditions which have not been dealt with at all. During the resulted in new conditions which have not been dealt with at all. During the 2006 Tisza valley fl ood the operation of foreign reservoirs was not reckoned 2006 Tisza valley fl ood the operation of foreign reservoirs was not reckoned with, analyzed and evaluatedwith, analyzed and evaluated. In view of the above facts it may be claimed that over the past 100 years In view of the above facts it may be claimed that over the past 100 years the eff ectiveness of fl ood prevention has never been so low along the Tisza the eff ectiveness of fl ood prevention has never been so low along the Tisza River as it is nowadays.River as it is nowadays. Similar problems can be observed in other catchment areas, too. During Similar problems can be observed in other catchment areas, too. During the last 15 years extreme fl ood events have become more frequent which may the last 15 years extreme fl ood events have become more frequent which may bring about an increase in the number of damages and even fatal accidents bring about an increase in the number of damages and even fatal accidents might occur owing to further disasters.might occur owing to further disasters. The Amended Vásárhelyi Plan (VTT) approved for the Tisza Valley The Amended Vásárhelyi Plan (VTT) approved for the Tisza Valley in 2003 aimed to improve the situation of the most critical valley segments in 2003 aimed to improve the situation of the most critical valley segments of Tisza outlining the preparation of a forthcoming program. Unfortunately, of Tisza outlining the preparation of a forthcoming program. Unfortunately, a new concept or a program garanteeing a long-term fl ood prevention have a new concept or a program garanteeing a long-term fl ood prevention have not been prepared yet.not been prepared yet. (Note: several documentations under the aegis of the concept have (Note: several documentations under the aegis of the concept have been prepared, but none of them have informed the audience about the present been prepared, but none of them have informed the audience about the present and future fl ood prevention. and future fl ood prevention. They do not refer to the level of security which can be achieved by They do not refer to the level of security which can be achieved by utilizing the proposed development fund.)utilizing the proposed development fund.) 369 Fig 5. Tiszazug, a low-lying area, a key location for the establishment of a retention reservoir (aft er Schweitzer, F. 2001) ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ``` ` ` ```````` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ```` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ``` ` ```` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ``` ` ` ````` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ``` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ``` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ````````` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ``` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` Tiszakécske Kerekdomb Lakitelek Tiszaalpár Tiszazug Tiszasas Tiszakürt Csépa Cserkeszőlő Tiszainoka CSONGRÁD T is za T isza Szelevény K ö rö s Low floodplain High floodplain Settlement ```````` Embankment Abandoned meander 370 Conclusions The future objective of the Hungarian fl ood prevention must be the creation of fl ood security as by law enacted. The protection of the Tisza Valley and catchment areas of other rivers is a national strategic priority. The reform of the Hungarian fl ood prevention, the development of the The reform of the Hungarian fl ood prevention, the development of the new fl ood prevention concept and doctrine are crucial technical and above all new fl ood prevention concept and doctrine are crucial technical and above all political questions. political questions. Taking into consideration the new concept, the elaboration of a pro-Taking into consideration the new concept, the elaboration of a pro- gram under realistic assumptions is needed to ensure a long-term fl ood secu-gram under realistic assumptions is needed to ensure a long-term fl ood secu- rity of protected fl ood areas along Tisza and other rivers to be able to inform rity of protected fl ood areas along Tisza and other rivers to be able to inform decision makers, stakeholders as well as the inhabitants concerned and to decision makers, stakeholders as well as the inhabitants concerned and to utilise the available sources. The purpose of the new program beyond the utilise the available sources. The purpose of the new program beyond the increase of fl ood security is to improve the quality of life of the population increase of fl ood security is to improve the quality of life of the population concerned, extend water supply capacities, preserve natural resources and concerned, extend water supply capacities, preserve natural resources and provide fl ood risk management.provide fl ood risk management. Hungary is to undertake a similar task she did during the 1830–40s. Hungary is to undertake a similar task she did during the 1830–40s. Strategic decision for the next 100–150 years should be made for the sake of Strategic decision for the next 100–150 years should be made for the sake of the population of our river valleys and protected fl ood areas. the population of our river valleys and protected fl ood areas. These proposals have been made on the basis of the activity of profes-These proposals have been made on the basis of the activity of profes- sionals who work on the comprehensive reformation of the Hungarian fl ood sionals who work on the comprehensive reformation of the Hungarian fl ood prevention and set themselves a target of creating a new structure for the sake prevention and set themselves a target of creating a new structure for the sake of river basin development and management under the EU regulations.of river basin development and management under the EU regulations. References Kocsis, K. and Schweitzer, F. eds. 2009. Hungary in Maps. Budapest, Geographical Research Institute of HAS, 175 p. Nagy, L., Schweitzer, F. and Alföldi, L. 2002. Jelenkori övzátony (parti gát) képződés és hullámtéri lerakódás a Közép-Tisza térségében (Relationship between the forma- tion of point bars and natural levees and fl ood bed sedimentation along the middle stretches of Tisza River). Földrajzi Értesítő 51 (3–4): 257–278. Schweitzer, F. 2001. A magyarországi folyószabályozások geomorfológiai vonatkozásai. (Geomorphological aspects of river regulation in Hungary). Földrajzi Értesítő 50 (1–4): 63–72. Schweitzer, F. 2009. Strategy or disaster: fl ood prevention related issues and actions in the Tisza River Basin. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 58 (1): 3–17. Vágás, I. 1982. A Tisza árvizei (Floods of the Tisza River). 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