CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS 
HUNGARIAN JOURNAL 

OF INDUSTRIAL CHEMISTRY 
VESZPREM 

Vol. 2. pp. 36- 43 (2000) 

"PROTECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATURAL AND BUILT 
ENVIRONMENT" SCENARIOS OF OMFB (NATIONAL COMMISSION FOR 

TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT) TEP WORK GROUP 

(
1:Sudapest Technical University, Department of Environmental Law and Economics 

2Head of OMFB TEP Office 
3University ofVeszprem, Department of Environmental Engineering and Technology) 

Tiris paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Environmental Engineering, 
University ofVeszprem, Veszprem, Hungary, May 29 -June 5, 1999 

Technology foresight - a systematic means of assessing that scientific and technological development which could have a 
strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life - provides an essential tool to this end. 
Hungary launched her foresight programme in 1997. As the country is undergoing fundamental economic and social 
changes - ihat is, the transition towards market economy - major institutions are currently shaped. Foresight has seemed 
an adequate tool to bring together business, the science base and government in order to identify and respond to emerging 
opportunities in markets and technologies. The former socio-economic system has been influential concerning the 
organisation and management ofTEP, too.lt has been a well-considered, conscious decision from the very beginning not 
to involve anybody from the OMFB to run the programme (:from a professional point of view, i.e. decision on panel 
topics, issues to be analysed, priority-setting, etc.). The Natural and Built Environment scenarios relating to the 
expectable state of the Hungarian built and natural environment come from the presumption that Hungary will become 
part of the European big-regional world economic centre in the medium run that is it will join the EU. Therefore, the 
future of Hungary in the next 30 years (up to 2030) was examined in relation to the EU regarding all the three scenarios. 

Keywords: teclmology; foresight; environment 

Introduction 

Our world is characterised by an increasingly rapid 
change in which global trends cannot be stopped at 
national borders, and new technology plays a growing 
role. The world is also becoming more competitive, 
with national competitiveness depending on 
technological, organisational and social innovation. As 
it is widely realised firms cannot survive the ever more 
fierce. global, competition without spending on 
emerging technologies and strategic research. These 
activities, however, are often too risky or too expensive 
for industry to take sole responsibility for them. 
Therefore governments must assume at least part of the 
:financial responsibility. This, in turn, requires setting 
R&D priorities, based on thorough, comprehensive. 
strategic analysis. as even the richest countries cannot 
afford to support ail research programmes. Technology 
foresight ~ a systematic means of assessing that 
scientific and technological development which could 
have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness. 

wealth · creation and quality of life - provides an 
essential tool to this end. Another reason why 
governments have to take part in foresight is that the 
exploitation of science and technology largely depends 
on effective networking between business, academia 
and government. Many governments have realised the 
importance of foresight activities, and thus this 
relatively new, and innovative, technology policy tool is 
spreading across continents. The consideration in this 
respect was that if Hungary during this period failed to 
join the EU for some reason the result would be great 
uncertainty and living from day to day in which no 
long-term strategy only short-term crisis management 
can be interpreted. The differences among the three 
versions are in the extent and pace of shift towards 
sustainable development flJ. 

Characteristics of the Hungarian Foresight Process 

Hungary launched her foresight programme in 1997. As 
the country is undergoing fundamental economic and 



social changes - that is, the transition towards market 
economy - major institutions are currently shaped. The 
first phase of the transition process is over by now -
most firms and banks have been privatised, the most 
important new political and economic institutions have 
been re-established, e.g. a parliamentary democracy 
based on a multi-party system, stock exchange, and the 
so-called transition decline have turned into economic 
growth in the last few years -, therefore it is high time to 
think about medium- and long-term issues. In other 
words, now it is possible to devise strategies aimed at 
improving the quality of life and the long-term 
international competitiveness. 

Aims and First Steps 

Foresight has seemed an adequate tool to bring together 
business, the science base and government in order to 
identify and respond to emerging opportunities in 
markets and technologies. In short, TEP should result in 
a national innovation strategy based on a comprehensive 
analysis of 

- world market opportunities (new markets and 
market niches) 
trends in technological development 

- strengths and weaknesses of the Hungarian 
economy and R&D system. 

The above, demanding, aim can only be achieved if 
researchers, business people and government officials 
join intellectual forces to assess Hungary's current 
competitive position ana impacts of likely global market 
and technological trends. Hence their re-aligned and 
reinvigorated relationships can be regarded as a means 
of the principal goal. However, the process in which 
these experts with different background communicate 
and share ideas concentrating on longer term issues, 
generate consensus, and co-operate with increased 
commitment in devising and realising a national 
strategy, seems to be so crucial that it is an end in itself. 
In other words, the programme is also aiming at 
strengthening the formal and informal relationships 
among scientists and engineers, managers and civil 
servants, alike spreading the co-operative and strategic 
thinking. 

Hungary is among.ihe six countries about to join 
the European Union in the 'first wave'. Accession to the 
EU is a major challenge since it is likely to shape 
Hungary's future to a significant extent. Therefore it 
requires a dear- though sound- vision on Hungary's 
role and opportunities in the enlarged European socio-
economic system. Thus TEP activities and results can 
contribute. to. the success of the integration process. 

In shOrt, wntten TEP results will be comprehensive 
analyses. <if' strengths and weaknesses. scenarios based 
on these inquiries and likely global trends, as well as 
recommendations for public policies how to realise the 
most desirable scenario. These analyses and information 
should also assist Hungarian firms in devising and 
implementing their strategies to improve their 
competitiveness. 

37 

TEP is a holistic foresight programme, based on 
both panel activities (scenarios, SWOT analysis, 
recommendations, policy proposals, etc.) and a large 
scale Delphi survey. The two-year Programme will 
conclude in 1999. It is being conducted in three stages, 
namely pre-foresight (October 1997 -· March 1998), 
main foresight (April 1998 - June 1999) and 
dissemination and implementation (July - December 
1999) stages. 

Awareness seminars were held across the country 
in the pre-foresight stage to promote this new concept 
among experts and professionals. Participants and 
organisers of these seminars (that is, chambers of 
commerce and scientific associations) were also invited 
to nominate panel members. 

A Steering Group (SG) of 19 leading industrialists, 
academics and government officials was set up in 
October 1997 to oversee the Programme. Following a 
thorough discussion the SG has defined the following 
topics for panel discussions: 

- Human resources (education, employment) 
Health (life sciences, pharmaceuticals, medical 
instruments, health care) 

- Information technologies, telecommunication, 
media 
Natural and built environment 

- Manufacturing and business processes (new 
materials and production techniques, supplier 
networks, globalisation ... ) 
Agrobusiness and food 

- Transport 
Having summarised the reasons to launch TEP, and 

the results of the pre-foresight stage, let us highlight 
some methodological issues in the remaining sections 
[1]. 

Strong Emphasis on Scenarios ('Macro' and Panel 
Level) Institutions and Regulation 

Given the transition process, major institutions are still 
being shaped - as opposed to, for instance, the UK, 
where 'the lawn is cut and watered for centuries'. In 
other words, the fundamental institutions have 
crystallised in the advanced counties for quite some 
time, whereas Hungary · is still at a cross-roads. 
Moreover, coming back from the Soviet political, 
military and economic bloc in an attempt to join the EU, 
which, in tum, is also in a middle of a major transition 
process, the wider, international institutional context 
(economic environment) where Hungary tries to find 
her rOQm., is changing, tOQ. Therefore it is of the utmost 
importance to analyse this turbulent environment, hence 
the emphasis on scenario-building, both at macro level 
(socio-economic framework conditions) and at the level 
of panels (micro, mezzo). Macro scenarios have not 
been developed in any other country engaged in 
foresight activities when we designed our programme. 

For the same reasons, the Hungarian panels devote 
a significant part of their interest to institutional 
development and regulatory issues. It is also reflected in 



38 

the Hungarian Delphi-statements: quite a few of them 
deal with these issues, rather than technological ones. 

Education and Learning as Input of Competitiveness 

There was a Leisure and Learning panel in the first 
British foresight exercise, where learning was mainly 
understood as a market opportunity, not as a major 
factor of competitiveness. TEP has opted for the latter 
approach - for obvious reasons. 

Employment as a Unique Issue 

TEP has put together Education, learning and 
employment into one panel under the heading of Human 
resources. To our knowledge, employment has not been 
an issue anywhere else. Our decision, however, is self-
explanatory in a country in transition. 

Broad Issues as Panel Topics 

In general, we have brought together various issues 
treated separately in most other foresight exercises. For 
example, our Health panel encompass life sciences, 
related fields of biotechnology, health care system, 
pharmaceuticals and medical instruments. Some of 
these issues are not analysed at all in other foresight 
exercises, e.g. the health care system, others are treated 
in separate panels, e.g. life sciences, pharmaceuticals (as 
part of chemicals). Also, agriculture and food 
processing belong to a single panel in our c:ffie (as 
opposed to the first British exercise). 

Cross-Cutting Issues 

Even so, we have also put strong emphasis on the so-
called cross-cutting (cross-panel) issues. We encourage 
our panels to identify, and adequately deal with these 
issues (e.g. education and IT in all panels, the various 
factors of our health - life style, medical care, 
environment, diet; all these issues belonging· to the 
different panels, although we have tried to set up panels 
around broad issues, accession to the EU, etc.). Some 
panels have already joined forces, i.e. their budget, in 
the early phase of our programme, and commissioned 
together a group of experts to analyse issues from 
different points <?f view (e.g. healthy diet: Health -
Agribusiness and Food Industry panels, reasons of 
allergy: again the above two panels). 

Given the legacy of the planned economy - that is, 
strong 'departmentalism• ~ and the inherent isolation of 
various disciplines. it can be regarded as an 
achievement in itself. 

Organisation 

The former socio-economic system has been influential 
concerning the organisation and management of TEP, 
too. It has been a well-considered, conscious decision 
from the very beginning not to involve anybody from 
the OMFB to run the programme (from a professional 
point of view, i.e. decision on panel topics, issues to be 
analysed, priority-setting, etc.). The role of OMFB has 
been restricted to provide finance and methodological 
support. Therefore no OMFB-official sits either on the 
Steering Group (SG), or is a member of any panel (the 
chairman of the Steering Group was the Head of the 
OST during the first British foresight programme). 
Moreover, members of the SG and panels have been 
appointed as a result of a wide consultation process. All 
the major decisions are taken by the SG, the panels or 
more recently at joint meetings of the SG and panel 
chairs and secretaries. 

Finally let us present a highly subjective 
observation to highlight certain difficulties of the 
process. 

Ambiguous ('Double') Legacy of Planning 

Centrally set, mandatory plan targets were abolished in 
1968 in Hungary, the first time among the centrally 
planned economies. Yet, its legacy is still rather strong 
among some experts with two, rather different, 
consequences, as far as foresight is concerned: 

some engineers and scientists understand 
foresight as just another form (tool) of (central) 
planning, and hence they want to devise just one 
future (vision, scenario, i.e. not different ones), 
and seeks funding for that target (as a sort of 
'central development programme [plan}'); 
some other professionals also understand 
foresight - at least at the first glance - as just 
another form (tool) of (central) planning, and 
hence they reject it immediately. 

To sum up, the on-going Hungarian Technology 
Foresight Programme - its goals, methods and 
organisation - is shaped to a large extent by the legacy 
of the former socio-economic systems, their impacts on 
the national system(s) of innovation, the size of the 
country and the level of her economic development. 

"Protection and Development ofthe Natural and 
Built Environment'' Scenarios 

In the course of drafting the possible scenario of the 
future, the following main principles and criteria are 
regarded as authoritative from "enviromnental" aspect. 

- Global principle of sustainability. In this respect 
the examination of the long-term technological 
development is deemed important to see what 
accord is created between the life possibilities of 



the current generation and the- future generations. 
The basic principle of sustainability is that the 
short term benefits of the current economic, 
social activities should not be funded by the costs 
of the future. 

- A big-regional (EU) and national criterion is to 
examine how our EU accession can be organised 
in a way that harmonisation with the EU and 
expectable economic growth should at the same 
time promote the improvement of the 
environmental elements of welfare. The process 
is related to the environmental protection 
requirements in the broadest sense since our 
development should be harmonised with the 
Fifth Environmental Action Program of the EU 
whose basic idea is sustainability. 

- Regional analyses as well as municipality, 
entrepreneurial and household levels will play 
important role in accordance with the 
"subsidiarity" principle of the EU. 

Investigation Levels of the Technologies 

Regarding the technologies the approach is the 
following: 

Investigation of the treatment methods 
(technological, economic, social, political) of 
pollution and damage caused by former 
(probably still operating) polluting technologies. 
Moderation of negative impact of current 
polluting technologies operating now and in the 
near-future on the natural and built environment 
("end of pipe" procedures, probably change of 
technology). 
Conditions for future development and 
introduction of environmentally sound 
technological developments and clean 
technologies, as well as domestic opportunities 
of environmental industry. 
In the case of all the above three investigation 
levels it is necessary to evaluate how 
technological changes themselves affect the 
Hungarian settlement structure, whether they 
modify and if they do in which direction the life 
opportunities of the population living in regions 
of different development levels and whether they 
contribute to the moderation of differences 
relating to the area and the type of residential 
place. 

Possible Scenarios of the Future 

The scenarios relating to the expectable state of the 
Hungarian built and natural env.ironment come from the 
presumption that Hungary will become part of the 
European big-regional world economic centre in the 
medium run that is it will join the EU. Therefore the 
future of Hungary in the next 30 years (up to 2030) was 

39 

examined in relation to the _EU regarding all the three 
scenarios. 

The consideration in this respect was that if 
Hungary during this period failed. to join the EU for 
some reason the result would be great uncertainty and 
living from day to day in which no long-term strategy 
only short-term crisis management can be interpreted. 
The differences among the three versions are in the 
extent and pace of shift towards sustainable 
development [2-13]. 

Scenario of "Sustainable Development" (Optimistic 
Version) 

The EU expanded with several new member states will 
strengthen its position against the North American and 
Asian centres. The increased internal market, the 
concentrated research and development expenditure will 
result in economic growth above the average in the 
world economy. One of its driving forces is the 
strengthening environmental industry, which decreases 
environmental load along with the historically rapid 
integration of clean technologies into the material basis 
of the economy. Regarding the use of resources there 
will be a shift towards human resources; the use of 
natural capital currently representing great proportion 
will decrease. Improving energy efficiency and the 
decrease of the specific use of material is partly the 
reason, partly the result of the shift in proportion, which 
means the products will demand fewer natural 
resources. 

Environmental goals among the direct objectives of 
technological developments will have increasingly 
greater share; developments for environmental purposes 
are emerging among the most successful technologies. 

A uniform system of standards covering all 
countries will spread as the framework condition of 
economic management and it will regulate 'the emission 
values of the individual technologies in details. The 
organisational and operational specifications of 
environmental management will be built into the 
organisational system of management units on the same 
level and consistency as in the current accountancy 
application. c 

The slow but continuous consumption growth of 
the current "developing world" - especially tl'ie Asian 
region - will revaluate the raw material stock. The 
significance of reuse and recycling of raw materials and 
products will increase in the European region which is 
poorly supplied by these stocks and consequently waste 
minimisation will be highlighted during the 
development and application of process technologies 
(within that water saving due to vulnerable fresh water 
reserves). 

Regionally the support system of the EU is directed 
at the equalisation of the development levels of the 
member states and those of the regions within them, the 
role of borders among countries is becoming less 
important. The basic principle of regional supports and 
developments is the modernisation of the internal 



40 

resources of the given regions, in this way the individual 
regions will be related to and complementing each other 
as a network and will not be uniform regions side by 
side. 

This scenario presumes that The European Union 
implements the goals given in the Fifth Environmental 
Action Program ("Towards Sustainability") and on that 
basis is able to advance in the first decade of the next 
millennium. Then between 2010 and 2030 the world 
economy will change accordingly and development in 
harmony with the environment will go on. 

Hungary will become member of the EU by 2005 
the latest. It will implement its National Environmental 
Program valid until 2002 which contains the principles 
of sustainability and on the basis of an improved 
program will realise harmonisation with the EU until 
2010. 

The country as a member of the EU will have a 
share of the benefits from the technological 
developments of the region. Company developments 
will be characterised by gradual spread of 
environmentally friendly, clean technologies, the 
economy will not be receptive to second-hand, second-
class and consequently more polluting technologies. 

The duration of use of the products (life cycle) will 
increase, this will make repair and maintenance more 
attractive with positive effects on employment. 

The decrease of environmental load, the increase of 
environmental safety, the decrease of mobility resulting 
from more balanced regional development and the 
spread of work at home or nearby (consequently the 
moderation of pollution -from transport) will on the 
whole result in the decline of health damage traced back 
to environmental harm. 

Revaluation of human resources will result in a 
more evenly "spreading" training; the labour force 
demand of the individual regions will be met by ''"local" 
training. As a result of the development of informatics 
and telecommunication the scope of job opportunities at 
home and telecommunication services is expanding. In 
the wake of the above facts labour mobility will 
decrease and the moderation of harmful impact from 
transport will come as environmental impact. 

The character of the settlement environment will be 
shifted towards so-called disperse towns (this tendency 
in Hungary primarily refers to the capital). Relatively 
big settlement structure of medium density providing 
space for the natural environment within the settlement 
and along the borders will become typical. Instead of 
traditional towns with one centre, settlements with 
several centres and playing servicing. supplying. and 
entertaining roles will strengthen. This settlement 
structure wm deconcentrate environmental load typical 
of junctions and coming from transport and in general 
from the presence of concentrated crowds of people. At 
the same time the threat of the segregation of social 
groups relating to the individual settlement centres due 
to geographical proximity or other (e.g. ethnic) reasons 
will strengthen. 

The importance of public transport will strengthen 
in order to reduce the pollution from urban and 
settlement transport, to suppress continuous stress and 
to ensure timesaving mobility. To this end a part of the 
transport routes on the surface (especially at junctions) 
will go under the surface which means underground 
construction technologies will gain ground. 

The state of the country in general and within that 
the policy of the natural and built environment will be 
similar to that of the current EU cohesion countries 
(Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece) with the features 
resulting from the Eastern Central European situation. 
With the newly integrated countries an Eastern Central 
European Cohesion Zone will be created (Poland, Czech 
Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, probably Estonia) which 
- although lagging a little bit behind - will follow the 
principles of subsidiarity characteristic of the EU 
average which is also in line with the global 
environmental requirements of the world. 

The European integration of the country will 
promote internal regional integration, the role of small-
regions and small-communities as solving 
environmental problems will increase. The 
"subsidiarity" principle of the EU will exert influence 
also in reality. 

In agriculture, production will be shifted towards 
organic products, organic and environmentally friendly 
procedures which will decrease the use of pesticides, 
fertilisers and the resultant soil pollution. 

Biodiversity will not deteriorate further. This can be 
traced back partly to the spread of environmentally 
sound solutions of agriculture, the extension of national 
parks, environmental areas, more efficient nature 
conservation on those areas partly to improving 
environmental conscious attitude on social level. There 
will be possibility to resettle and preserve some 
traditional species. 

The shift towards renewable energy sources may 
become significant, their share in optimum case may 
reach 10%. The use of solar energy regarded as an 
alternative today will continuously increase within 
energy supply (this will modify the construction 
technologies in addition to the application of collectors 
and photovoltaic cells in the case of solar traps at the 
buildings) and the application of earth houses using 
traditional heating combined with solar energy and the 
use biomass will spread. Construction technologies will 
be modified. The materials of the buildings will not 
change basically but the efficiency of insulation 
technologies will significantly improve. 

Imposing tax on non-renewable resources will gain 
ground in economic regulation while taxes, 
contributions which employment entails will decrease. 
In this way the regulation in addition to the reduction of 
environmental pollution will also decrease 
unemployment. 

The attitude of environmentally conscious 
management will increase within company 
management. 



The concept of "consumption" will have different 
value, the demand for healthy way of life will increase 
in the category of life quality. Then not only the 
interests of the individuals will have an important role 
but the "maintenance" of human resources revaluated 
within the production resources will become a strong 
economic interest. With the spread of waste 
minimisation technologies and the increase of the non-
material consumption elements of life quality (which 
will reduce the demand for material goods), 
environmental load will decrease and requirements for 
some technologies prompted by environmental safety 
(decrease of the threat of accidents causing 
environmental and health damage) will simultaneously 
increase. 

A decisive criterion of technological developments 
and installations is the minimisation of the health 
damage of the affected population. The external costs of 
health damage of environmental origin will not come 
from central funds but will be built into costs on 
company level especially on the basis of the polluter 
pays principle. 

Immaterial value scale will become dominant in 
family and school education, life quality will have 
priority over pursuing material goods. Raising 
environmental awareness will become a cornerstone of 
the education system from the lowest level (nurseries) to 
higher education including further training on different 
levels. The educational system will deal with 
environmental impacts of given areas as an organic part 
of certain subject matters, professions and fields, in 
addition it will regard and apply environmentally sound 
thinking as the basic element of education relating to the 
way of life [2-13]. 

"Business as Usual" Scenario 

Slow economic growth is going on in the European 
Union, the position of the region in the world economy 
will slightly deteriorate and the Union will not 
implement the program of sustainable development. The 
traditional growth orientated development of the world 
economy will significantly delay the environmentally 
sound transformation of the profit-orientated relations of 
nature-economy. 

The Union funds will grow slowly due to the 
resistance of the donor countries and the demand of the 
formerly integrated cohesion countries will be strong to 
preserve the support resources. The Central Eastern 
European cohesion integration will proceed slowly. 

Hungary will join the European Union after 2005 
but the practice of "sustainable growth" will devaluate 
the principles of ''sustainable development" and will 
significantly delay realisation. 

The current production-consumption structure will 
survive. The proportion of technical development will 
remain low, the economy will be determined by lease 
work. (The current level of R+D and the role of 
Hungarian research development centres will keep 
decreasing.) The financially most successful 

41 

technologies will not be aimed directly at the protection 
of environmental elements but as an additional benefit 
of their application environmental load will decrease. 

EU support will go for road transport within 
infrastructure development and more environmentally 
friendly transport solutions will relatively decrease. 
Accelerated motorway constructions will strengthen the 
transit nature of the country. The above endeavour is in 
accordance with the Hungarian development of motor-
car production. 

Differences between the Transdanubian and Eastern 
regions regarding regional development will not 
decrease. 

Regarding technological development the basically 
Hungarian owned small and medium sectors will lag 
behind the advanced level of international large 
companies. In Hungary the multinational companies 
with high capital level use first class technologies of 
environmentally friendly nature. Small and medium 
companies - due to relative capital shortage - on the 
other hand take over second class procedures, which 
environmentally are more detrimental. The spread of the 
latter ones however is not typical. Environmental 
regulation will remain relatively soft since the resistance 
of the majority of both the population and businesses is 
streng. Within environmental solutions subsequent' 
environmental protection of low efficiency will 
dominate. 

Primarily large companies and their suppliers use 
organisational and operational forms according to 
Environmental Management System, which is based on 
the continuous development of ISO 14001 standard. The 
number of certified companies working on the basis of 
EMS will be a few thousand in Hungary. 

The environmental industrial products and services 
will be imported into the country deteriorating the 
international balance of payment. 

The environmental-health situation will stagnate, in 
some fields will deteriorate especially in big crowded 
cities. Monitoring systems to observe the impacts of 
technologies resulting in health damage of 
environmental origin will be established. During 
company installations and expansions, environmental 
impact assessment will certify on the basis of standards · 
tighter than the current environmental-health ones, the 
contacts between environmental and health authorities 
will be continuous. At the same time strategic impact 
assessments will be hardly used for developments. 

A part of the valuable natural areas will be lost 
because of infrastructure development and green field 
industrial investments. 

Energy efficiency will improve slowly, the interest 
to increase energy production is much greater than to 
increase energy efficiency (basic power station fueUed 
by !ignite, perhaps new nuclear power station). 

Because of the poor enforcement of the principle of 
subsidiarity the role of local governments to reduce 
environmental damage will strengthen only slightly. 
The local governments of settlements will 
organisationally expand and staff trained for 



42 

environmental tasks will be employed. Local 
governments will have greater control over duties and 
fees contributed for environmental purposes. In the case 
of the remaining centralised funds not only a 
distribution system per capita will exist, the nature and 
extent of the pollution to be cleaned up will also have 
significant impact. 

The environmental tasks of the Hungarian local 
governments will be concentrated on two fields that is 
waste disposal and sewage purification. 

Knowledge relating to environmental protection as 
a separate subject will have a broadening role in the 
educational system, especially on secondary level. This 
profile of higher education is expanding especially in 
the fields- of waste treatment technologies and 
environmental management. Public thinking is primarily 
influenced by environmental information in the media 
given separately or built in other types of information. 
Environmental awareness of the public, however, 
changes slowly because of other impacts working 
against the environment. 

It is increasingly difficult for the country to meet 
the requirements stipulated by international 
environmental conventions [2-13]. 

"Delayed Accession" Scenario (Pessimistic Version) 

The European Union among the major world economic 
centres regarding power will fall into the background.-
Traditional market solutions will dominate in the world 
economy. Global and regional conflicts will sharpen and 
the permanent crisis management will absorb significant 
resources. Subsequent (end of pipe) instruments of both 
environmentally and economically low efficiency will 
become typical in environmental protection. Only 
multinational companies - primarily to ensure their 
green image - apply the slowly changing standards of 
environmental management. The standards in the world 

'economic regions are different regarding the stringency 
of the stipulations. 

Because of the sharpening world economic 
contradictions the development of the EU will relatively 
slow down and accession will be postponed to 2010 or 
iater. In Hungary the position of environmental 
protection will deteriorate and will be subordinated to 
economic growth of low efficiency. The driving force of 
technological developments will be profit maximisation 
in the short term, the reduction of the load on 
environmental elements with its long-term, indirect 
benefits will be left out of the group of the economically 
most successful technologies. Rapid developments 
responding to existing state deterioration will have 
priority. 

The threat of using environment polluting 
technologies in industrial production as a result of 
economic constraints will grow, the enforcement of 
environmental criteria will be weak. The number of 
companies certified on the basis of environmental 
standards will stagnate at sm:~e hundreds. 

Hungary will be on the periphery within the Union, 
it will determine the level of technologies used here 
which is typically second class with all the 
environmental disadvantages. The major countries of 
the European region will see the Eastern end as the 
domain of the relatively most polluting technologies, 
development funds will be aimed at the take-over of 
these technologies. 

Agricultural production is going on with 
environmentally polluting methods on fragmented areas 
with ownership structure transformed as result of the 
lack of knowledge and capital. Negative effects of 
former polluting agricultural technologies (primarily 
soil pollution) will not be eliminated. 

Processes resulting from the transit character of the 
country will strengthen in transport, the proportion of 
road development will grow while the role of railway 
and public transport will decrease. The vehicle fleet will 
become older and the technical state will further 
deteriorate. 

As a result of short term developments with direct 
benefit, the second class polluting technologies coming 
to Hungary and the limited · budget opportunities, 
monitoring of health damage of environmental origin 
and the treatment of damage on social level will not be 
highlighted issues. Prevention will be restricted and 
limited to spectacular emergencies (e.g. chemical 
accidents) which are easily perceptible for the public. 
The share and typical impact of health damage resulting 
from environmental pollution will not be clarified. 

The development funds of local governments 
usable for environmental protection will be restricted. 
There is no stake to employ experts who can manage 
environmental issues on the merit, the regional 
environmental authorities will control the remediation 
processes. Funds for environmental purposes will be 
centralised, the distribution system per capita will work 

-or the funds will be used to eliminate emerging damage. 
The importance of the medium strata in the society 

will not change, the development of the civil society 
will be slow, sensitivity to non-material values and 
environmental awareness will be on low level. The 
media will only moderately influence environmental 
thinking that has subordinated role in the social scale of 
values since it has no value for advertisement. 
Education will primarily concentrate on knowledge 
necessary for remediation, the scope of training 
involving secondary and higher education will be 
relatively narrow. Environmentally friendly way of life 
will be in the periphery in education, the attitude based 
on the utility of people measurable in money will 
prepare the new generation for careers which entail the 
possession of material goods and are deemed successful 
by the public. 

The peripheral nature of the joining Central Eastern 
European countries will remain durable. The regional 
differences and conflicts within the country will 
strengthen. Through lack of adequate resources the 
Eastern territories will not close up fast, developments 



will be concentrated on areas with existing 
infrastructure and better qualified labour. 

Biodiversity will drastically deteriorate. The 
reasons are: decrease of the extent of nature 
conservation areas, moderation of financial means to 
preserve values there, utilisation of many chemicals in 
agriculture on extending territory and narrowing natural 
living space [2-13]. 

REFERENCES 

1. HAVAS A.: OMFB TEP Office presentation, OECD 
workshop on · Technology Foresight and Sustainable 
Development held in Budapest on 11 December, 1998 

2. BARTUS G.: Possible scenarios for the waste 
management, OMFB TEP study, 1998/99 (in Hungarian) 

3. CsUTORA M.: Applying cleaner production, OMFB TEP 
study, 1998/99 (in Hungarian) 

4. FODOR 1.: Environmental aspects of the regional 
developing projects, OMFB TEP study, 1998/99 (in 
Hungarian) 

43 

5. GEREBEN E.: Thesis for the built environment, OMFB 
TEP study, 1998/99 (in Hungarian) 

6. HORVATH GY.: The future of the rural environment, 
OMFB TEP study, 1998/99 (in Hungarian) 

7. l.TJAS IsTVAN: Water quality trends in the next 20-25 
years, OMFB TEP study, 1998/99 (in Hungarian) 

8. lLOSVAY GY.: Trends of the NGO's in the next 25-30 
years, OMFB TEP study, 1998/99 (in Hungarian) 

9. LocSMANDI G.: The resettlement and the environment, 
OMFB TEP study, 1998/99 (in Hungarian) 

10. PALvoLGYI T.: Environmental policy; R+D and 
innovation in Hungary, OMFB TEP study, 1998/99 (in 
Hungarian) 

11. PINTER A.: The future trends in environmental sanitation 
as a ·function of economic development, OMFB TEP 
study, 1998/99 (in Hungarian) 

12. PoMAzi 1.: The sustainable development as a function of 
economi<; development, OMFB TEP study, 1998/99 (in 

·Hungarian) 
13. V ALK6 L.: The environmental education as a function of 

technology foresight, OMFB TEP study, 1998/99 (in 
Hungarian) 


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