Microsoft Word - B_29_R.doc HUNGARIAN JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL CHEMISTRY VESZPRÉM Vol. 38(2). pp. 201-206 (2010) EXAMINATION THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE COMPOSITION OF A THEORETICAL ECOSYSTEM AND THE INCREASE IN THE ATMOSPHERICAL CO2 LEVEL Á. DRÉGELYI-KISS1, L. GIMESI2, R. HOMORÓDI3, L. HUFNAGEL4 1Bánki Donát Faculty of Mechanical and Safety Engineering, Óbuda University H-1081 Budapest, Népszínház u. 8., HUNGARY 2Department of Informatics, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Pécs H-7624, Pécs, Ifjúság út 6, HUNGARY 3ALÖKI Applied Ecological Research and Forensic Institution Ltd. H-1118 Budapest, Kassa utca 118, HUNGARY 4“Adaptation to Climate Change” Research Group of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences H-1118 Budapest, Villányi út 29-33, HUNGARY E-mail: leventehufnagel@gmail.com The development of automotive industries and energetics has a large impact on the carbon-dioxide level in the atmosphere and therefore on the climate change process. There is a continuous cycle and flow of inorganic compounds between the atmosphere and the ecosystems, therefore the anthropogenic affects (such as CO2 emission) strongly modify the activities of ecosystems. The modified activities are as follows: fluxes of the photosynthesis, CO2 emission of the soil or the quantity of dissolved organic compounds in the ocean. These activities could have a feedback on the climate controlling the compounds of the atmosphere and therefore on the temperature of the Earth. The most important anthropogenic green-house gas (GHG) is the carbon-dioxide. The global CO2-level has an increase from 280 ppm (before industrial era) to 380 ppm (by 2008). The annual fossil CO2-emission was 6.0–6.8 Pg C in the 1990s, and 6.9–7.5 Pg C in 2000–2005. There is positive correlation between the amount of green house gases in the atmosphere and the temperature, so the larger the increase in the GHG-level the higher the global temperature in the Earth. The ecosystems could control the climate (precipitation, temperature) in a way that an increase in the atmosphere component (e.g. CO2 concentration) induces the processes in biosphere to decrease the amount of that component through biogeochemical cycles. These feedbacks could affect the climate either on positive or negative ways. In our research the answers of a theoretical freshwater ecosystem are examined on the change in the value and the fluctuation of the temperature. Our aim is to show a simple ecological model related to this feedback mechanism, and to examine the feedback ability of the theoretical ecosystem to the temperature of the atmosphere. Keywords: theoretical ecosystem, feedback, climate modelling, climate change, control Introduction and aims The latest IPCC report [8] points out that a rise of 1.5–2.5 °C in global average temperature makes important changes in the structure and the working of ecosystems, primarily with negative consequences towards the biodiversity and goods and services of the ecological systems (e.g. [1, 3, 13, 17]). The ecosystems could control the climate (precipitation, temperature) in a way that an increase in the atmosphere component (e.g. CO2 concentration) induces the processes in biosphere to decrease the amount of that component through biogeochemical cycles. Paleoclimate researches have proved this control- mechanism for more than 100,000 years. The surplus CO2 content has most likely been absorbed by the ocean, thus controlling the temperature of the Earth through the green house effect. This feedback is negative therefore the equilibrium is stable. During the climate control there may be not only negative but positive feedbacks. One of the most important factors affected the temperature of the Earth is the albedo of the poles. While the average temperature on the Earth is increasing the amount of the arctic ice is decreasing. Therefore the amount of the sunlight reflected back decreases, which warms the surface of the Earth with increasing intensity. This is not the only positive feedback during the control, another good example is the melting of frozen methane hydrate in the tundra. The environment, the local and the global climate are affected by the ecosystems through the climate-ecosystem feedbacks. There is a great amount of carbon in the living vegetation and the soil like organic substance which could be formed to atmospheric CO2 or methane hereby affecting the climate. CO2 is taken up by terrestrial ecosystems during the photosynthesis and is lost during 202 the respiration process, but carbon could be emitted like methane, volatile organic compound and solved carbon. The feedback of the climate-carbon cycle is hard to determine because of the difficulties of the biological processes [4, 9]. The biological simplification is essential during the modelling of vegetation processes [14, 18, 20]. It is important to consider more feedbacks to the climate system to decrease the uncertainty of the estimations. Materials and methods An algae community consisting of 33 species in a freshwater ecosystem is modelled [5, 6, 11, 19]. During the examinations the behaviour of a theoretical ecosystem is studied by changing the temperature systematically. The conceptual diagram of the TEGM model summarizes the build-up of the model (Fig. 1). Theoretical algae species are characterized by the temperature interval in which they are able to reproduce. The daily reproductive rate of the species can be seen on the vertical axis, which means by how many times the number of specimens can increase at a given temperature. This corresponds to the reproductive ability of freshwater algae in the temperate zone [7]. Since the reproductive ability is given, the daily number of specimens related to the daily average temperature is definitely determinable. Figure 1: Conceptual diagram of the TEGM model (RR: reproduction rate, RF: restriction function related to the accessibility of the sunlight, N(Xi): the number of the ith algae species, r: the velocity parameter) The theoretical ecosystem is imagined that the amount of the biomass (a part of the carbon stored by the ecosystem) participates in the build-up of the plants or affects the carbon-content of the atmosphere. It is supposed that the plants alter into atmospherical CO2 at the moment of their ruination. The net primer production (NPP) is considered as biomass production of plants, because these data are available instead of net ecosystem production (NEP). Let be equal the amount of the plant biomass with the production of the temperate freshwater ecosystem. The area of the freshwater lakes, rivers and wetlands is 10.3 million km2 in the Earth [16], the average net primer production value of these ecosystems is 0.36 C/m2/year. It is supposed, that the freshwater splits into equal parts in the surface of the Earth, so the temperate freshwater ecosystems have 5.15 million km2 area and annual 1.854 Pg C net primer production. Keeling et al. [12] have found from the measuring of the atmospherical CO2-level and the global average temperature in the Earth that 6 Pg C increase in the atmosphere is analogous with 1 K increase in global average temperature. During the simulation it is important to calculate with the anthropogenic effect. Canadell et al. [2] have found that there is 4.1 Pg C increase annually in the atmosphere, which is 0.123 Pg C related to the temperate freshwater zone (this is the 3% of the surface of the Earth). Therefore the temperature increases 0.123 Pg C/6 = 0.0205 K in every year. To take into account the anthropogenic effect there is 0.0205 K/365 = 6.616·10-5 K increase daily from the start of the simulation study. During this study the base temperature data series is the existing historical daily average temperature from 1960 to 1990 in Budapest. This series consist of large number of examinations: 30*365 values. In order to simplify the description of the climate and to ignore the fluctuation between years a function has been fitted to averages and dispersion of the 30 years’ data according to the least squares method. This fitted curve is the base of our simulations, as later can be seen in Fig. 2, the T(1) data series. Considering the historical daily temperature data series from 1960 to 1990 in Budapest it is stated that the daily average total number of specimens (productivity) is 1.17·106 in case of r = 1, and let this number of specimens be equal to the 8.924 Pg C net primer production. (Hence the specimens of the theoretical ecosystem live for one day, the daily average production is get for the production of the ecosystem.) The control effect of the theoretical ecosystem on the climate has been modelled as can be seen in Fig. 2. Figure 2: The block diagram of simulation study During the simulation there are some used temperature data series. These are as follows: T(0): the data series where there is no feedback of the ecosystem on the climate, and there is not any anthropogenic effect. T(1): the data series where there is feedback of the ecosystem on the climate, this is related to the measured, historical temperature data. 203 T(2): the data series where there is no feedback between the ecosystem and the climate, but the anthropogenic effect exists. T(3): the data series where there are both the feedback and anthropogenic effects. The equilibrium comes into evidence while a specimen springs carbon passes out from the atmosphere in order to participate in the build-up of the plant. In the proportion of the leaving CO2 amount the temperature of the air decreases according to the following equations: j)0(6j)1(j)0( N ]K/PgC[6 1 1017.1 ]yr/PgC[854.1 TT ⋅⋅ ⋅ += (1) ]K[N10641.2TT j)0( 7 j)1(j)0( ⋅⋅+= − (2) ]K[j10616.6TT 5j)0(j)2( ⋅⋅+= − (3) ]K[N10641.2TT j)2( 7 j)2(j)3( ⋅⋅−= − (4) where N means the number of specimens and the indexes are as follows: 0 is related to the case without the plants, 1 is related to the historical data series, 2 is related to the case with anthropogenic effect and without the plants, 3 is related to the case with anthropogenic effect and plants, j means the number of data. So in case of without-plants the temperature would be higher. The simulations were run with two-type temperature inputs. In the first case the temperature input is the fitted data series of the existing daily average temperature of Budapest from 1960–1990, and the simulation was run for 120 years to answer the question, what would be if there is no anthropogenic effect. In the other case the anthropogenic effect is considered, and simulation was run from 2010 to 2130. In every temperature interval there are dominant species which win the competition. The output parameters of the experiments are the determination of daily productivity, the diversity (Shannon diversity value) and the change in temperature caused by the ecosystem. Results During the simulation study the working of a theoretical algae ecosystem were examined for the future. In case of T(0), when there is no anthropogenic effect, the larger number of specimens could be found in summer and fall, in July, August and September. Considering the anthropogenic effect (T(2)) there is a decrease in the total number of specimens, the largest productivity values can be found in September and in March, sometimes in June. To compare the two case, the nearly maximum total number of specimen values do not exist in the second case as it appears in the first case. The daily diversity values can be seen in Fig. 3a and 3b for the two temperature inputs. The values change between 0 (dark colour) to 1.7 (white). It can be seen in Fig. 3a that the maximum diversity exists in May and at the beginning of November, the dispersion of the species is medium in summer and winter [10]. Figure 3a: The Shannon diversity values from 1990 to 2130 when there is no anthropogenic effect (T(0)-case) Figure 3b: The Shannon diversity values from 1990 to 2130 where there is anthropogenic effect (T(2)-case) 204 Considering the anthropogenic effect (T(2), Fig. 3b) the places of the diversity maximums within a year shifts during the consecutive years. At the end of the examined period the diversity maximums can be found in April and at the end of November. Because of the high summer temperature and the extinction of the species the diversity decreases in summer. To study the seasonal diversity values it is stated that there is a decrease in the diversity in summer and winter. The composition of the ecosystem determines the feedback effect, the effect of temperature control. In the first case (T(0)) the evolving ecosystem causes 1.5–2.5 K decrease in the temperature in July, August and September (Fig. 4a). So the theoretical ecosystem could have cooling effect in summer until 3 K temperature, in fall until 2 K temperature; while in winter and spring there is less amount of biotic feedback. To take into account the anthropogenic effect it can be seen in Fig. 4b that the feedback, the ‘cooling effect’ of the ecosystem is less realized, the maximum difference is (T(2)–T(3)) 1.3 K temperature difference. In fall some shifts can be seen, the temperature can decrease in February and in March. Discussion The ecosystems are important parts of the biosphere, they have an important role in the development and maintenance of the ecological equilibrium. The environment, the local and the global climate are affected by the ecosystems through the climate- ecosystem feedbacks. During our simulation study it is investigated how the TEGM theoretical freshwater ecosystem model developed by us [5, 6] could affect the climate and the environment. It is found that the productivity of the ecosystem has changed annually and daily when the anthropogenic effect was taken into account. The productivity correlates with the amount of the atmospherical CO2, the growing greenery binds carbon from the air. In case where there is no anthropogenic effect the ‘cooling’ effect of the plants is up to 2.5 K dependent upon the seasons, months. Considering the amount of the anthropogenic carbon and the global warming it is stated that the ‘cooling’ effect of the living Earth, the plants decreases up to 1.3 K temperature after 100 years. This means that there will be maximum 1.2 K increase in temperature except for the anthropogenic warming due to the control ability of the plants for the climate. This result hangs together the issue investigated by Friedlingstein et al. [8]. They found that there is additional 0.1–1.5 °C warming by 2100 due to the feedback effect. In the course of ecological modelling and biosphere research it is important to unravel much more the feedbacks and control processes to describe the function of the whole Earth. Figure 4a: The cooling effect (T(0)–T(1)) of the theoretical ecosystem 1990-2130 without anthropogenic effect Figure 4b: The cooling effect (T(2)–T(3)) of the theoretical ecosystem from 1990 to 2130 with anthropogenic effect 205 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This investigation was supported by the project TÁMOP 4.2.1/B-09/1/KMR/-2010-0005, the “Bolyai János” Research Fellowship (Hungarian Academy of Sciences), the Research Assistant Fellowship (Corvinus University of Budapest), Adaptation to Climate Change Research Group of Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the ‘ALÖKI’ Applied Ecological Research and Forensic Institute Ltd. REFERENCES 1. A. ANDA, T. KOCSIS: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 6, 2008, 85–94. 2. J. G. CANADELL, C. LE QUÉRÉ, M. R. RAUPACH, C. B. FIELD, E. T. BUITENHUIS, P. CIAIS, T. J. CONWAY, N. P. GILLETT, R. A. HOUGHTON, G. MARLAND: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104 (47), 2007, 18866–18870. 3. N. DIÓS, K. SZENTELEKI, A. FERENCZY, G. PETRÁNYI, L. HUFNAGEL: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 7(3), 2009, 199–214. 4. Á. DRÉGELYI-KISS, G. DRÉGELYI-KISS, L. HUFNAGEL: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 6, 2008, 111–135. 5. Á. DRÉGELYI-KISS, L. HUFNAGEL: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 7, 2009, 71–78. 6. Á. DRÉGELYI-KISS, L. HUFNAGEL: Environmental Modeling & Assessment (2010). DOI:10.1007/s10666-009-9216-4 7. L. FELFÖLDY: A vizek környezettana. Általános hid- robiológia, Mezőgazdasági Kiadó, Budapest (1981). 8. A. FISCHLIN, G. F. MIDGLEY, J. T. PRICE, R. LEEMANS, B. GOPAL, C. TURLEY, M. D. A. ROUNSEVELL, O. P. DUBE, J. TARAZONA, A. A. VELICHKO: Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, (2007) 211–272. 9. P. FRIEDLINGSTEIN, P. M. COX, R. A. BETTS, L. BOPP, W. VON BLOH, V. BROVKIN, P. CADULE, S. DONEY, M. EBY, I. FUNG, G. BALA, J. JOHN, C. D. JONES, F. JOOS, T. KATO, M. KAWAMIYA, W. KNORR, K. LINDSAY, H. D. MATTHEWS, T. RADDATZ, P. RAYNER, C. REICK, E. ROECKNER, K. G. SCHNITZLER, R. SCHNUR, K. STRASSMANN, A. J. WEAVER, C. YOSHIKAWA, N. ZENG: Journal of Climate, 19, 2006, 3337–3353. 10. L. GIMESI: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 6(1), 2008, 165–176. 11. L. HUFNAGEL, Á. DRÉGELYI-KISS, G. DRÉGELYI-KISS: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 8(2), 2010, 119–131. 12. C. D. KEELING, R. B. BACASTOW, A. F. CARTER, S. C. PIPER, T. P. WHORF, M. HEIMANN, W. G. MOOK, H. ROELOFFZEN: A Three-Dimensional Model of Atmospheric CO2 Transport Based on Observed Winds: 1. Analysis of Observational Data 165–236. In Peterson, D. H. (ed.), Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas, Geophysical Monograph 55, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C. (1989). 13. E. KIPP: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 6(4), 2008, 1–14. 14. M. LADÁNYI, L. HORVÁTH, M. GAÁL, L. HUFNAGEL: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 1(1-2), 2003, 47–74. 15. M. LADÁNYI: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 6(1), 2008, 147–164. 16. MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005): Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, Island Press, Washington, DC. 17. A. RÉVÉSZ: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 6(4), 2008, 85–100. 18. CS. SIPKAY, K. T. KISS, CS. VADADI-FÜLÖP, L. HUFNAGEL: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 7(2), 2009, 171–198. 19. CS. SIPKAY, Á. DRÉGELYI-KISS, L. HORVÁTH, Á. GARAMVÖLGYI, K. T. KISS, L. HUFNAGEL: Community ecological effects of climate change. In Climate change and variability, Sciyo Books, www.sciyo.com, ISBN 978-953-7619-X-X (2010). 20. CS. VADADI-FÜLÖP, L. HUFNAGEL, CS. SIPKAY, CS. VERASZTÓ: Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 6(1), 2008. 1–28. << /ASCII85EncodePages false /AllowTransparency false /AutoPositionEPSFiles true /AutoRotatePages /None /Binding /Left /CalGrayProfile (Dot Gain 20%) /CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-2.1) /CalCMYKProfile (U.S. Web Coated \050SWOP\051 v2) /sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-2.1) /CannotEmbedFontPolicy /Error /CompatibilityLevel 1.4 /CompressObjects /Tags /CompressPages true /ConvertImagesToIndexed true /PassThroughJPEGImages true /CreateJobTicket false /DefaultRenderingIntent /Default /DetectBlends true /DetectCurves 0.0000 /ColorConversionStrategy /CMYK /DoThumbnails false /EmbedAllFonts true /EmbedOpenType false /ParseICCProfilesInComments true /EmbedJobOptions true /DSCReportingLevel 0 /EmitDSCWarnings false /EndPage -1 /ImageMemory 1048576 /LockDistillerParams false /MaxSubsetPct 100 /Optimize true /OPM 1 /ParseDSCComments true /ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true /PreserveCopyPage true /PreserveDICMYKValues true /PreserveEPSInfo true /PreserveFlatness true /PreserveHalftoneInfo false /PreserveOPIComments true /PreserveOverprintSettings true /StartPage 1 /SubsetFonts true /TransferFunctionInfo /Apply /UCRandBGInfo /Preserve /UsePrologue false /ColorSettingsFile () /AlwaysEmbed [ true ] /NeverEmbed [ true ] /AntiAliasColorImages false /CropColorImages true /ColorImageMinResolution 300 /ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy /OK /DownsampleColorImages true /ColorImageDownsampleType /Bicubic /ColorImageResolution 300 /ColorImageDepth -1 /ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 1 /ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 1.50000 /EncodeColorImages true /ColorImageFilter /DCTEncode /AutoFilterColorImages true /ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy /JPEG /ColorACSImageDict << /QFactor 0.15 /HSamples [1 1 1 1] /VSamples [1 1 1 1] >> /ColorImageDict << /QFactor 0.15 /HSamples [1 1 1 1] /VSamples [1 1 1 1] >> /JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict << /TileWidth 256 /TileHeight 256 /Quality 30 >> /JPEG2000ColorImageDict << /TileWidth 256 /TileHeight 256 /Quality 30 >> /AntiAliasGrayImages false /CropGrayImages true /GrayImageMinResolution 300 /GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy /OK /DownsampleGrayImages true /GrayImageDownsampleType /Bicubic /GrayImageResolution 300 /GrayImageDepth -1 /GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 2 /GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 1.50000 /EncodeGrayImages true /GrayImageFilter /DCTEncode /AutoFilterGrayImages true /GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy /JPEG /GrayACSImageDict << /QFactor 0.15 /HSamples [1 1 1 1] /VSamples [1 1 1 1] >> /GrayImageDict << /QFactor 0.15 /HSamples [1 1 1 1] /VSamples [1 1 1 1] >> /JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict << /TileWidth 256 /TileHeight 256 /Quality 30 >> /JPEG2000GrayImageDict << /TileWidth 256 /TileHeight 256 /Quality 30 >> /AntiAliasMonoImages false /CropMonoImages true /MonoImageMinResolution 1200 /MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy /OK /DownsampleMonoImages true /MonoImageDownsampleType /Bicubic /MonoImageResolution 1200 /MonoImageDepth -1 /MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 1.50000 /EncodeMonoImages true /MonoImageFilter /CCITTFaxEncode /MonoImageDict << /K -1 >> /AllowPSXObjects false /CheckCompliance [ /None ] /PDFX1aCheck false /PDFX3Check false /PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false /PDFXNoTrimBoxError true /PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [ 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 ] /PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true /PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [ 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 ] /PDFXOutputIntentProfile () /PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier () /PDFXOutputCondition () /PDFXRegistryName () /PDFXTrapped /False /CreateJDFFile false /Description << /ARA /BGR /CHS /CHT /CZE /DAN /DEU /ESP /ETI /FRA /GRE /HEB /HRV (Za stvaranje Adobe PDF dokumenata najpogodnijih za visokokvalitetni ispis prije tiskanja koristite ove postavke. Stvoreni PDF dokumenti mogu se otvoriti Acrobat i Adobe Reader 5.0 i kasnijim verzijama.) /HUN /ITA /JPN /KOR /LTH /LVI /NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken die zijn geoptimaliseerd voor prepress-afdrukken van hoge kwaliteit. De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 5.0 en hoger.) /NOR /POL /PTB /RUM /RUS /SKY /SLV /SUO /SVE /TUR /UKR /ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing. Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 5.0 and later.) >> /Namespace [ (Adobe) (Common) (1.0) ] /OtherNamespaces [ << /AsReaderSpreads false /CropImagesToFrames true /ErrorControl /WarnAndContinue /FlattenerIgnoreSpreadOverrides false /IncludeGuidesGrids false /IncludeNonPrinting false /IncludeSlug false /Namespace [ (Adobe) (InDesign) (4.0) ] /OmitPlacedBitmaps false /OmitPlacedEPS false /OmitPlacedPDF false /SimulateOverprint /Legacy >> << /AddBleedMarks false /AddColorBars false /AddCropMarks false /AddPageInfo false /AddRegMarks false /ConvertColors /ConvertToCMYK /DestinationProfileName () /DestinationProfileSelector /DocumentCMYK /Downsample16BitImages true /FlattenerPreset << /PresetSelector /MediumResolution >> /FormElements false /GenerateStructure false /IncludeBookmarks false /IncludeHyperlinks false /IncludeInteractive false /IncludeLayers false /IncludeProfiles false /MultimediaHandling /UseObjectSettings /Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (2.0) ] /PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector /DocumentCMYK /PreserveEditing true /UntaggedCMYKHandling /LeaveUntagged /UntaggedRGBHandling /UseDocumentProfile /UseDocumentBleed false >> ] >> setdistillerparams << /HWResolution [2400 2400] /PageSize [612.000 792.000] >> setpagedevice