The Impact of Future Social and Technological Trends On the

Dissemination of Census Bureau Information
by Donald L. Day '

School ofInformation Studies

Syracuse University

Abstract

This study examines social and technological trends that

may impact the dissemination of U.S. census information

via the Depository Library Program in the Year 2000 and

beyond.

The study looks beyond currently emerging systems to

examine a limited list of future issues in technology,

regulation, funding, access, and user demand. It exam-
ines information dissemination in the broad, societal

context, rather than concentrating narrowly upon the

means of delivery. Its main objectives are to pinpoint

key issues, to stimulate an appreciation of the inextri-

cable nature of information in postindustrial society, and

to recommend policies and directions for further re-

search.

Introduction

Nature of the Topic

This study examines social and technological trends that

may impact the dissemination of U.S. census information

via the Depository Library Program in the Year 2000 and
beyond.

Importance of the Topic

Establishing the social and technological context within

which census information might be disseminated in the

future would facilitate rational policy making regarding

that dissemination. It also might save time and money,
in that decisions about systems with long lead times

could be made so as to implement the systems in a timely

and efficient manner.

Scope and Objectives

The original impetus for the study was a concern about
the sheer volume of paper products absorbed by the

Depository Library I*rogram (as high as 25 percent of all

documents printed from the 1980 census), and an interest

in how new technologies may make it possible to reduce

costs while increasing the availabihty and variety of data

(in particular, census data).

The study looks beyond currently emerging systems to

examine a limited list of future issues in technology,

regulation, funding, access, and user demand. It exam-
ines information dissemination in the broad, societal

context, rather than concentrating narrowly upon the

means of delivery. Its main objectives are to pinpoint

key issues, to stimulate an appreciation of the inextri-

cable nature of information in postindustrial society, and

to recommend pohcies and directions for further re-

search.

Point of View

This study was fielded under the presumption that

government will be required to continue providing public

access to federal information as part of its commiunent to

maintaining the informed citizenry that is central to

participatory democracy.

Report Outline

Following a brief review of study methodology, this

report presents an overview of future trends (the societal

context), a discussion of study findings, and pohcy
recommendations for key issues requiring public debate.

Study Method
Design

The current study was conceived as a qualitative, ex-

ploratory and descriptive effort to identify issues of

concern. Ehie interviewing was to be interspersed with a

review of literature in the future studies field in an

iterative process that would develop perspective and

deepen focus and selectivity in data collection.

The interviews were in-depth but informal, as recom-

mended by Marshall & Rossman (1989). They were

conducted in subjects' normal work environment (a

"natural setting") to ensure ease of discussion and

immediate access to reference materials.

Procedure

Subjects were selected because of their expert knowledge

of federal information dissemination policies and of

developing technology. Interviews were conducted in

two rounds, separated by approximately four weeks. The
first set concentrated on preliminary data gathering and

focused upon the Depository Library Program. The
second set was guided by an outline of concerns (inter-

rogative research questions) developed from the literature

and from the earlier interviews (see below). Sessions

were recorded to ensure the completeness of notes and to

help recognize nuances that might have been overlooked

at the time of initial data collection. Only one subject

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was distracted by the presence of a taping machine; the

others were largely oblivious to its presence.

The scheduling of multiple interview events separated by

a review of the literature and by conceptual outlining

worked very well in focusing the research and in identi-

fying issues that were not apparent at the outset. An
improvement in procedure that might be useful in other

qualitative research on this or other topics would be

submission of interim reports to key sources for critique.

This technique might help sources to feel involved in the

research effort, lend to focus their comments during

interviews, and encourage them to act as agents of the

researcher in obtaining material useful to the study.

Key Research Questions

The key research questions drafted from an analysis of

the literature and during the interviewing process were as

follows.

1. What will be the leading edge information

technologies in the first decade of the next century?

2. When and to what degree will depository

library materials (especially census data) be

distributed via CD-ROM or other machine-

readable media?

3. What technological developments will

affect patrons' remote electronic access to

depository libraries?

4. What software and data structures will be

required for electronically disseminated census

data, to facilitate rapid and effective searches and

retrieval?

5. What will be the sponsorship and impact of

standardization efforts to facilitate network access

to federal government information?

6. To what extent will anti-trust concerns

inhibit development of data integration protocols

and telecommunications software necessary for

widespread network access to federal government

information?

7. How will the distribution of government

information be controlled, under whose auspices

and with what objectives?

8. How will data integrity be maintained

without impeding widespread electronic

dissemination of information?

9. Which sponsors of information production,

dissemination and use will support high technology

access, under what conditions and with what goals?

10. What are the prospects that Congress will

choose to privatize depository library distribution?

What impact would that have upon the quality,

quantity, availability and cost of Census Bureau

information?

1 1

.

What will be the minimum skill levels

required of users and depository librarians in

accessing electronically disseminated information?

12. To what degree might user fees and other

costs of accessing electronically disseminated

information disenfranchise individuals?

13. What impact will changes in work force

composition and employment arrangements have

upon the types of census information sought by

users?

Overview of Future Trends

The Economy
Although estimates vary widely, some projections

forecast a period of modest economic prosperity for the

United States in the next two decades, including a strong

rise in "knowledge industries."

Demographers predict an enlargement of the middle

class, with fewer very poor or very wealthy. Cultural

homogenization is anticipated, despite an increase in

non-English speakers and the swelling ranks of citizens

over 65, with each group having its own unique perspec-

tive and needs (Cetron, 1988).

Information consumption may be influenced significantly

by an increase in middle class affluence. The incomes of

middle-aged citizens will rise about three-fourths. One-

third of middle-aged households will have annual

incomes of $50,000 or more, in constant dollars (New
American, 1986). More sophisticated, better-educated

consumers with work experience will have disposable

income for travel, leisure and luxury. Spending will

continue to shift toward service industries (Cetron,

1988).

Education and Training

Four percent of the labor force may be in job retraining

programs in the coming decade (Cetron, 1988). There

may be more rigorous educational standards at all levels

and a greater concern for human rights and personal

freedom (Caddy, 1987).

Work Force Composition

Summer 1991



By the Year 2000, manufacturing will employ only nine

percent of the labor force, with services taJcing 88

percent, partly because productivity in automated

industries may increase fivefold. Seventy percent of U.S.

homes may have computers in 2000, facilitating the

potential for widespread remote access to federal govern-

ment information (Cetron, 1988).

Changes in the work force may be a key influence during

the next decade. The mandatory retirement age may be

70 by the Year 2000. Union members will comprise less

than 10 percent of the labor force (versus 29 percent in

1975 and 18 percent in 1985). The work force will be

dynamic, with people changing careers an average of

every 10 years. A shortage of low-wage workers will

force businesses to automate and to seek foreign workers.

The ranks of the self-employed will grow at a faster rate

than salaried workers and more mid-career professionals

will become entrepreneurs (Cetron, 1988).

Some expect a crisis of consumer confidence in the U.S.

technological infrastructure as widespread hacker activity

plagues computer networks (1988 Ten-Year Forecast,

1988).

Also anticipated are a decrease in the divorce rate, an

increase in marriages and family formation, and a

heightened role for reUgion. Do-il-yourself activities will

be popular, because a 32-hour work week will create

more leisure time and due to the high cost of services.

Protracted adolescence may be more common, although

there will be far fewer young people than at present. A
decrease in the size of federal government will be

accompanied by growth in state and local governments
(Cetron, 1988).

Knowledge Industries

The United States is becoming a postindustrial society.

In such a system, telecommunications and computers are

vital to the exchange of information and knowledge
(Bell, 1978). Multimedia information networks permeate

everyday life. New information and processing devices

increase productivity, despite initial retraining losses.

Knowledge industries grow in importance.

As the central role of information accelerates, major
policy issues will include privacy, the part government
plays in information dissemination, intellectual property

rights and functional literacy. Neural networks (combi-

nations of electronic and photonic circuits used in optical

computers) may be one of the key new technologies.

The science of integrating diverse telecommunications
and computing systems may become an important driver

of technological innovation (Bezold and Olson, 1986).

Information Technologies

Despite the increasing use of computers in a wide variety

of applications, there also may be an increase in the need

for paper. Tenner (1988) reported that from 1959 to

1986 U.S. consumption of writing and printing paper

increased 320 percent while real GNP rose only 280

percent. He believed that electronic information supple-

mented rather than replaced paper, and noted that using

paper is more efficient, legible, and secure than working

with monitor displays. Tenner also predicted that

increases in the number of office workers will cause a

corresponding growth in the use of photocopiers and

facsimile machines (which use paper).

Massive increases in storage technology will take place,

with commercial system capacities in the hundreds of

megabytes. Optical disks (some erasable) will emerge as

the medium of choice in applications such as census data

reuieval that require high storage capacity, fast access,

removability, non-contact recording, and long life.

Engineers predict that current disk capacity will increase

tenfold and that the 600 megabyte disk that now sells for

S200 is likely to cost only S25-50 (Freese, 1988).

Knowledge in Postindustrial Society

The Economics ofInformation

Social organization will be shap)ed by intellectual

technology in postindustrial America. Since information

and knowledge are not depleted in the sense that goods

are in an industrial economy, knowledge will be consid-

ered a social product. Its cost, price and value will be

assessed in a way vastly different from that for industrial

goods, in accordance with what is known as the "Knowl-
edge Theory of Value" (BeU, 1978).

Knowledge, even when it is sold, remains with the

producer. It is a "collective good" — once it has been

created, it is available to all. There is little incentive for

any single person or enterprise to pay for the production

of knowledge unless a proprietary advantage (such as a

patent or copyright registration) can be obtained. Thus,

government policy in regard to intellectual property and

contractor marketing of publicly funded products will be

key in the management of future information dissemina-

tion technology.

Bell (1978) believes that a reduction in incentives for

individuals or companies to produce knowledge will

cause the responsibility for and costs of satisfying

information needs to fall to government Whether
information dissemination is "privatized" and in what

manner may affect the availability of that information

significantly.

The first infrastructure placed in service by industrializ-

ing economies is transf)ortaion. Fully industrial systems

concentrate on energy utilities. Societies entering the

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postindustrial phase need advanced telecommunications.

Therefore, the major technological problem for America

in the next decade will be emplacement of an appropriate

digital information network, carried over fiber optic cable

(Bell, 1978).

Social Impacts

The U.S. as postindustrial state is likely to have a vastly

different social structure than at present. Bell (1978)

believes that this new order may be characterized by:

1. Centrality of theoretical knowledge as the

basis of innovation.

of society, but detrimental to others.

2. Will have a positive impact primarily in

the middle-class suburbs, with a negative impact in

central cities.

3. Will not be properly understood and

regulated until considerable damage has been done

in major urban development.

4. Will reduce the economic viability of the

central city by accelerating delocalization of

business and commerce.

2. Creation of new intellectual techniques to

engineer solutions to economic (and even social)

problems.

3. The spread of a (technical and

professional) knowledge class.

4. The change from goods to human services.

5. A change in the character of work (people

must learn to live with one another, since

interaction among groups will be key).

6. The employment of women in expanded

human services.

7. Science as the societal standard bearer.

8. Political units comprised of either vertical

organizations of individuals into scientific,

technological, administrative, and cultural centers,

or of institutions arrayed as economic, government,

university, or social complexes.

9. Meritocracy (an emphasis on education

and skill).

10. Scarcities of information and of time.

11. The economics of information.

Bell (1978) also believes that information by its nature is

collective, not private. In postindustrial America, the

optimal social investment in knowledge may require that

we follow a cooperative strategy to increase, spread and

use knowledge.

A more pessimistic view of the impact of advanced

telecommunications technology is taken by Eldredge

(1978). Hebelieves that new technology will:

1 . Will be highly beneficial to some segments

5. Will affect the service sector most, because

its processes involve paper transactions that are

particularly sensitive to technological substitution.

The Depository Library Program
It is within this context of an increasingly central role for

the development and dissemination of information that

we consider future management of the Depository

Library Program.

The federal government has a long history of providing

increasing amounts of information to the public as part of

its responsibility to maintain an informed citizenry.

In particular, substantial volumes of information ranging

from census data to contract studies of government

activities to congressional hearings have been dissemi-

nated in a network of some 1400 libraries as part of the

Depository Library Program. Under the program,

government-printed material is distributed to a limited

number of regional depository libraries. Additional

"select" libraries also archive some subset of these

materials for their patrons.^

Recently, census data have been distributed to a few

depository libraries on CD-ROM in an effort to assess

the medium's potential, as well as to gauge user reac-

tion.' Bureau of the Census material also is available to

institutions and to the public at State Data Centers

operated specifically for that piupose.

Discussion of Key Research Questions in Terms of

Findings

Elite interviewing and the literature review for this study

identified five major areas that may affect future dissemi-

nation of census data as part of the Depository Library

Program. These areas were selected based upon the

emphasis they were given by interviewees and upon the

author's experience in information systems design.

1 . Technology

Summer 1991



2. Regulation

3. Funding

4. Access

5. User Demand

Technology

Leading Edge Technologies

What will be the leading edge information

technologies in the first decade of tfie next century?

The media used in dissemination of federal information

in the Year 2000 may be a mixture of optimized current-

day technologies (McGee, 1990).

Data input, the bane of current full-text efforts, may no
longer be a problem. Research during the past few years

has made it possible for many agencies (e.g., the Air

Force) to use improved optical scanning devices to make
large amounts of printed text machine-readable (McGee,
1990). Once standards are established for sharing

scanned input, an enormous amount of digital data will

be available, although coordination and retrieval prob-

lems will need to be addressed.

Information dissemination also may include specially

engraved static memory chips for advanced personal

computers. Response time typical of such devices would
be significantly shorter than with mechanical access

systems— an important consideration for complex,

natural language queries of large databases. Inexpensive,

high-capacity chips will be available. (In a recent

demonstration, IBM technicians wrote patterns at single-

atom resolution using a scanning tunnelling microscope.''

Thus far, vast sums of money have been spent on
advanced technologies without any real understanding of
how people might interrelate with these devices (Weiner

& Brown, 1989). Current improvements center on the

abihly to gather, store, and catalog information.

Much information dissemination in the Year 2000 will be
via fiber optic cable, which due to its enormous capacity
will compete effectively with relatively limited capacity

direct-broadcast satellite transmission in many real time

access applications. Much of the internal transmission

capacity of most telephone companies already has been
converted to fiber, and a number of large businesses have
access to fiber networks. All subscribers are certain to be
fiber-connected in 25 years, with many equipped during
the 1990s (Weinstein & Shumate, 1989).

There will be an explosion of communications options as

the fiber optic infrastructure is installed, making possible

single transmission, multiple-service options such as on-

line catalog ordering and public opinion polling (due to

the signal capacity of fiber optic cable). Today, the

Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) makes
possible voice, data and image transmission over the

same phone lines. ISDN is likely to be deployed widely

by the end of century, making possible high fideUty

audio and five-second per page facsimile. Early in the

next century, ISDN will give way to the Broadband

Integrated Services Digital Network (BISDN)— an

intelligent networks supporting high quality, simultane-

ous and on- demand video services, home telemetry, and

high speed data and image communication among faxes,

workstations and computers. The Telecommunications

Network for the Deaf (TND) will convert speech into

text and vice versa to assist handicapped subscribers.

These and other protocols may be tested soon in the

NREN high-speed network already in use at many
libraries.

CD-ROM and on-line technology early in the next

century will assist the user in sorting through the thicket

of available information by means of "information

grazing": an intelligent, user-selectable fdtering system

capable of passing only items of interest in order to

manage information overload.

Machine-Readable Media

When and to what degree will depository hbrary

materials (especially census data) be distributed via

CD-ROM or other machine-readable media?

It is abeady within the means of depository libraries to

provide public access to census data via CD-ROM.
Recently, the Bureau of the Census has been engaged in

a test distribution of files on CD-ROM to depository

libraries throughout the country (J. Stratford, personal

communication, February 21, 1990).

However, the test discs have not been received well by

all depositories. Data on one disc were formatted in a

different pattern for each file, making it necessary for

users to apply different techniques to access each dataseL

These variations in format have decreased the usefulness

of the disc (K. Chiang, personal communication, April

12, 1990). Also, a virus was distributed on the 1988

County and City Data Book CD-ROM, though prompt
action by the Depository Library Program appears to

have averted serious problems for member libraries

(Harm, 1990).

Despite such initial problems, CD-ROM seems ideally

suited to dissemination of census information which by

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its nature contains large amounts of data. In the mid-

1980s, Grolier placed its 21- volume, nine-million word
Academic American Encyclopedia on a single compact
disc. Eighty percent of the disc's capacity remained

unused. In addition to enormous space savings, use of

CD-ROM made possible high-speed keyword searches

(Cornish, 1985).

In the future, CDs will not necessarily be distributed to

all institutions in the Depository Library Program. Much
in the way that only regional libraries receive full

dissemination now, some expect discs bearing federal

information to be distributed only to regional depository

libraries. Select libraries could request discs on loan as

required by their patrons. (McGee, 1990).

Remote Electronic Access

What technological developments will affect

patrons' remote electronic access to depository

libraries?

CD-ROM will by no means be the only electronic access

to federal information in the years ahead. Combinations

of new and existing technologies will facihtate the

widespread availability of census data early in the 21st

Century.

Integration of facsimile devices with home entertainment

centers will allow users to receive hardcopy on demand
of a wide range of federal government information, if on-

line access to depository databases is allowed. Installa-

tion of fiber-optic cable to homes and businesses will

make possible a dynamic, interactive census process in

which users not only access more current database

information but also can register data about themselves

more easily and more frequently than is possible with

current, paper-based census techniques. The Year 2000

may be the last "traditional" census, as citizens enter the

data collection, processing, analysis and dissemination

loop more actively.

Such dynamic census systems would raise issues of

quality control, user cooperation, and prevention of abuse

by commercial marketing interests. Extension of on-line

access to the full range of depository data also may call

into question the need for regionally distributed deposi-

tory archives.

Most depository libraries already are involved in net-

works. There are 20 regional networks, plus some CD-
ROM disuibution. Some federal information specialists

feel that depository library information should be on-hne,

if only to reduce the expense of storing information that

is used infrequently. Now, it is enormously expensive

and wasteful to print and distribute materials that few if

any patrons use: "Much of government information is a

record going nowhere." (McGee, 1990).

Regardless of storage capacity, it still will be necessary

to keep truly unused information from clogging the

system. It has been suggested that Ubrarians help define

the characteristics of a filter to be used in deciding what
depository information should be part of on-line and CD-
ROM databases. Information use could be evaluated at

regional libraries, or such institutions could delegate

responsibility to subject specialists. However, many
librarians resist the filtering of information, preferring to

make decisions on a case-by-case basis rather than allow

data to be withheld at centralized distribution points

(McGee, 1990).

Software and Data Structures

What software and data structures will be required

for electronically disseminated census data, to

facilitate rapid and effective searches and retrieval?

The complexity and volume of federal information in all

formats will require sophisticated indexing and retrieval

software, but existing government databases are seriously

lacking in such tools (McGee, 1990). Software used

currently to access the test CD-ROMs distributed by the

Bureau of the Census also may be inadequate ("Until

there is adequate access software, the CD is not much of

an improvement on a stack of microfiche."— K. Chiang,

personal communication, April 12, 1990).

Efficient software will need to be developed to manage
the volume of machine-readable information available in

the future. When the mass of retrievable information is

more than the brain can process effectively, the result is

not faster decision making, but instead a delay in or even

abdication of decision making (Weiner & Brown, 1989).

Clarke (1985) noted that without adequate indexing,

many users would be completely overwhelmed by a

virtually limitless selection of information resources, and

chose to select nothing. He also pointed out that

With the latest techniques, it would be possible to put

the whole of human knowledge into a shoe box. The

problem, of course, is to get it out again; anything

misfded would be irretrievably lost.

Within the next decade, artificial intelligence will be

applied to such problems (Diebold, 1985).

Some data in future federal databases may need to be in a

format suitable for manipulation by spreadsheet and

statistical programs such as Lotus 1-2-3 or SAS (McGee,

1990). The widespread availability of relatively inexpen-

sive bitmapped displays, faster processors, and a demand

for three-dimensional graphics and photographic-quality

images may force some network databases to be stored in

Summer 1991



tokenized or vector formats to be regenerated at user

workstations. (Graphics regeneration has been available

for some time on more expensive minicomputers such as

the DEC MicroVax II, using the ANSI/ISO-standard

Graphical Kernel System.) Such formats allow special-

ized processors in users' machines to plot images from

line endpoint data rather simply displaying full-screen

files downloaded from host computers. This capability

would accelerate display speeds significantly, partly due

to new data compression techniques and the capacity of

fully digital, high speed networks to download enormous
amounts of data.

Regulation

The history of innovation is replete with examples of

new technology that was not implemented to its potential

because of social or political factors that frustrated its

use. Future data dissemination technology could suffer a

similar fate if issues of standardization, anti-trust, control

of distribution and data integrity are not addressed

adequately.

Standardization

What will be the sponsorship and impact of

standardization efforts to facilitate network access

to federal government information?

The architecture of future data access systems and the

standards coordination required for integration of diverse

computing hardware are key concerns that will need to

be addressed as technology makes large volumes of

federal data available in machine-readable format. As
Clarke (1985) observed,

Another problem is to decide whether we mass
produce the shoe boxes [databases!, so that every

family has one, or whether we have a central shoe box
linked to the home with wideband communications.

Information specialists at the Library of Congress believe

that a single, coordinated, national database with remote

access is not likely. Interface standards will make
possible an extensive, distributed architecture populated

with vastly different hardware in a highly interconnected

system. (Substantial interconnection ah-eady exists

among NTIS, DOE and Medline.) They feel that the

centralized database concept is obsolete. In this view,

future on- line access to federal information would more
likely be via highly distributed selective centers, linked

to each other using standard protocols (Bortnick &
Relyea, 1990).

EstabUshment of standards for such on-line networks is a

key concern, since integration of computers from a

multitude of vendors operating under vastly different

operating systems may be involved. Equipment already

in place at user sites could be linked to provide reasona-

bly economical service, if sufficient standards were
developed by government and applied as part of the

access system. Standards may not even be imposed by
the federal government, but instead by international

entities, owing to the substantial interconnection even
now between federal government data stores and over-

seas sources. European networks have tended to be

further advanced than those in the U.S., therefore are

more likely to drive any movement toward standardiza-

tion (Bortnick & Relyea, 1990).

If an institution could not link to the system using

existing hardware because its plant was antiquated,

funding could be requested from corporations, the

Department of Commerce and/or the National Science

Foundation to bring the site to minimum levels for

participation in the system. Otherwise, it would be

presumed that institutions could tap into the on-line

system with existing equipment and software, if they met
standards (Bortnick & Relyea, 1990).

At present, standardization even within the federal

government is difficult. Many agencies have material in

electronic form, but there is no coordination of data

formats or machine compatibility. Most electronically

stored data are not available outside their host agency.

Although the Office of Management and Budget (0MB)
or General Services Administration (GSA) may have the

authority to force coordination of data formats through-

out the federal government, it remains to be seen whether

that authority will be applied, and with what result

(Powell, 1990).

Anti-Trust Concerns

To what extent will anti-trust concerns inhibit

development of data integration protocols and

telecommunications software necessary for

widespread network access to federal government

information?

Traditionally, federal anti-trust law has prevented firms

in competition with each other from cooperating in ways

that may be necessary for development of standardized

protocols, equipment and software for the fully integrated

information systems of the future. However, anti-trust

law has changed in recent years to allow cooperative

research and development among firms, largely in

response to competitive market pressures from overseas

(where such cooperation is common) (Bortnick &
Relyea, 1990).

There are proposals in Congress to extend this liberaliza-

tion to include product development and even produc-

tion. The availability of seamless networks for user

access to on-line federal information would be affected

lASSIST Ouarterty



significantly by greater cooperation among service

suppliers, if they were not constrained by anti-trust

regulation.

Federal anti-trust enforcement has been dormant in

recent years, in part because there have been few sub-

stantive changes in business activity from old, estab-

lished patterns. However, the new information technol-

ogy constitutes just such a substantive change, implying

the need for changes that would facilitate cooperative

development of technologies— especially protocols and

access software— that would facilitate interconnection

(Bortnick & Relyea, 1990)

Control of Distribution

How will the distribution of government

information be controlled, under whose auspices

and with what objecuves?

Telecommunications policy centers around who provides

services, under what conditions, and at what prices.

A jurisdictional struggle is under way now among the

Government Printing Office (GPO), OMB, National

Technical Information Service (NTIS) and others over

control of federal information dissemination. The GPO
is funded by the legislative branch; clashes take place

between the executive branch and Congress over infor-

mation policy. Each side has its allies in Congress.

(Both the House and Senate have committees with

oversight authority for each agency involved in the

policy debate.) Paperwork reduction is the concern of the

Senate Committee on Government Affairs^ statistical

policy is set by the Bureau of the Census, and the

Depository Library Program is managed by the Joint

Committee on Printing. Commerce and Science commit-

tees also are involved, because of technology issues. It is

difficult to make poUcy with such fragmentation (Powell,

1990), and just as difficult to implement it because of the

tug of war among the actors in their attempts to influence

appropriations.

House bill 3849 (introduced in January) is one manisfes-

tation of the struggle. This legislation attempts to

prevent public monies from being used by the executive

branch lo generate and distribute information products

and services without involvement of GPO. It broadens

the legal definition of "documents" to include informa-

tion products "in any tangible format, medium or sub-

state", and auempts to interpose the Superintendent of

Documents between the depository libraries and any

government agency that might issue information prod-

ucts (Goverrunent, 1990).

This oversight problem must be resolved before the

depository system can upgrade, regardless of the benefits

of technology. Some observers feel that the Depository

Library Program will need to be removed from GPO
auspices before its technological potential can be fully

realized, in part because the GPO work force is hesitant

to diversify from traditional media (Bortnick & Relyea,

1990).

Some parts of the library community feel threatened by

the new attempts to centralize and standardize the new
technology. In 1985, OMB's Office of Information and

Regulatory Affairs issued Bulletin A- 130, which dealt

with dissemination of federal information in electronic

format and was part of the effort to reduce the volume of

government printing (Powell, 1990). Some librarians felt

the policy would undercut the depository library system

(Powell, 1990). Initially, the cost of advanced technol-

ogy may buttress such resistance by those who favor

hardcopy dissemination (McGee, 1990).

Questions of access to federal information networks also

need to be addressed before practical implementation of

rapidly developing technology. Some within the federal

community feel that capabilities such as full-text retrieval

should be available lo all citizens, not merely to deposi-

tory hbraries (McGee, 1990).

Some concern has been expressed within government

regarding regulation specifically of the on-line dissemi-

nation of federal information due to provisions of the

Export Administration Act (PL%-72). They feel that the

competitiveness of American industry might be impaired

if information were available to foreign competition.

Also, DoD is concerned about the "mosaic theory"

potential of widespread, machine-readable federal

information (i.e., what new knowledge can be gained

from machine correlation of public information).

Therefore, policy will need to be made regarding whether

on- line information should be available only to U.S.

citizens. Restriction may not be feasible regardless of

poUcy because of the difficulties of controlling informa-

tion transfer in an environment of total interchangeability

among data formats. Release in one format would be

tantamount to release in all others (Bortnick & Relyea,

1990).

Further frustrating auempts to limit overseas access to

federal information is the fact that a great deal of infor-

mation in existing federal databases (e.g., NTIS or DOE)
is from foreign sources. It is unlikely that overseas

concerns would be willing to continue providing substan-

tial amounts of information to a U.S. database if they

were not allowed in turn to access that database.

In any case, controls cost money which might not be

forthcoming, depending upon the perceived importance

Summer 1991



of such restrictions compared to the perceived need for

convenient and widespread public access to federal

government information.

Data Integrity

How will data integrity be maintained without

impeding widespread electronic dissemination of

information?

Data in a freely accessed, on-line system could be

copied, modified then redistributed, without the knowl-

edge of the issuing agency. Original data may even be

subject to accidental or malicious corruption. It might be

difficult to protect important data whose accuracy would

be presumed to be the responsibility of the Bureau of the

Census (Bortnick & Relyea, 1990).

With the advent of new technology, however, a different

model of responsibility might be in place. In the past, a

publisher may have been expected in certain circum-

stances to notify the trade media (e.g.. Publishers

Weekly) about serious errors discovered after a book was

distributed. Easily modified works such as those mar-

keted in three-ring notebooks or with spiral bindings

could have been distorted in the field, totally unknown to

the original publisher. In the analogous future situation

with machine-readable material, the aspect of the tech-

nology that makes data easy to corrupt also makes

unauthorized changes relatively easy to correct, if

intrusions can be detected.

Funding

Sponsors

Which sponsors of information production,

dissemination and use will support high technology

access, under what conditions and with what goals?

Funding is a natural barrier to the widespread dissemina-

tion of information. Who should be responsible for

capital equipment and telecommunications costs incurred

if patrons or depository librarians are to have on-line

access to census data?

In all probability, future funding for information dissemi-

nation would follow existing models. These include (1)

a prototype database access system sponsored by the

Library of Congress, (2) the regional supercomputer

program, and (3) the Federal Information Center Pro-

gram.

In the Library of Congress model, 12 libraries, corpora-

lions and agencies across the U.S. use their own equip-

ment and staff, and pay their own telecommunications

charges. The Library maintains the database and pro-

vides access to its computers (Bortnick & Relyea, 1990).

The Internet communications network operates on a

similar model. Universities across the world provide

their own equipment and software; the U.S. government

maintains the relatively small interconnection "back-

bone" of the system.

In the regional supercomputer program model, access to

information is restricted to institutions that provide

fmancial and support for the system. Contracts between

government and the universities hosting the centers

include specific provisions for use and funding. Centers

typically solicit financial support from two or three

distinct sources (Bortnick & Relyea, 1990). Under this

model, depository libraries might maintain regional CD-
ROM or on- line database centers which loan discs or

provide logon accounts to institutions that pay to support

the system. Whether the subscribing institutions in turn

charge their paffons for access is a major poUcy option.

Some at the Library of Congress feel that the Depository

Library program should be subsumed by the GSA's
Federal Information Center (FIC) Program, making it the

central point from which to access many types of inte-

grated media. These Centers are not funded solely by the

legislative branch, but instead are supported by many

sources under a "plurality of funding" concept that is

more acceptable politically (Bortnick & Relyea, 1990).

Under the FIC model, a private firm (Biospherics,

Incorporated of Beltsville, Maryland) manages regional

offices which field telephoned inquiries regarding a wide

range of government services, programs and regulations.

By terms of the contract, Biospherics is is required to

provide access to the hearing and speech impaired

(Federal, 1990). Under this model, depository Ubrary

materials presumably would be accessed on-line using

regional FIC database systems.

Depository libraries are not very high on the poUtical

agenda in Congress, since their funding comes directly

from the legislative branch budget. Many legislators

believe that government should provide the information,

but not the means for its distribution. In the future, the

federal subsidy for information dissemination might be

limited to the current cost of paper distribution (Bormick

& Relyea, 1990).

Telecommunication charges for the dissemination of

federal information may be regulated in the future by

policies such as the FCC Open Network Architecture

(ONA) initiative. ONA's intent is to prevent monopoly

control by local telephone carriers of connections to

national networks. The initiative requires modular

pricing of discriminible services, to promote competition

among suppliers.

12 lASSIST Quarterly



If on-line access to depository library information is to be

provided in the home, then charges for terminal electron-

ics and for the in-ground installation of fiber-optic cable

must be comparable to the total cost of a typical tele-

phone line installation today: SI,000 to SI,500 per home.

Network operation also must be economically feasible.

That it may be is demonstrated by research at Bellcore

which has resulted in experimental models of broadband,

digital networks (Weinstein & Shumate, 1989).

During the more than a century that the depository

library program has provided public information to

participating institutions, the government has funded the

printing and dissemination of materials. Changes in

perception of government's proper role— and in its

abiUty to support initially expensive dissemination

technology — make it doubtful that future funding will

come from Washington alone.

Funding expanded network access in particular is a

serious concern. Some federal information specialists

believe that future on-line systems will need to be fee-

based. Federal libraries already pay for on-line access, in

a manner similar to that used to charge commercial

customers for access to commercial databases such as

Dialog.

Despite these concerns, some analysts believe that basic

information utilities of the future will be economical to

the point of being taken for granted. Their concern is

that such a cheapening of information will risk potential

devaluation of product quality and intellectual creativity

(Diebold, 1985). It should be noted, however, that low

cost does not necessarily translate into easy access.

Regardless of cost, there still will be a need to filter the

vast amounts of information that will be available in

order to retrieve only what is needed.

Privatization

What are the prospects that Congress will choose

to privatize depository library distribution? What
impact would that have upon the quality, quantity,

availability and cost of Census Bureau

information?

There are some who feel that 0MB 's Circular A- 130

(and the corresponding requirement for A-76 studies)' is

too favorable to the private sector, because it urges

agencies to contract for information services (Powell,

1990). This sentiment underlies HR 3849, the Govern-

ment Printing Office Improvement Act of 1990, which if

passed would require that depository libraries apply

through the Superintendent of Documents for any

government information product, and that such applica-

tion include the specific cost sharing arrangements

proposed among users, the depository libraries, the

issuing agency and federal appropriations (Government,

1990).

Joint government-industry initiatives may be inevitable,

not only because of federal funding constraints, but also

because private industry holds advanced search and

indexing software necessary for the management of

comprehensive, interrelated data stores. Possession of

such tools by firms such as Dialog and Nexus place them

in an excellent position to bid contracts for on-line or

CD-ROM access to federal information (Bormick &
Relyea, 1990). Joint initiatives are prompted in part by

the concern of private industry regarding "unfair"

competition with the government if federal information is

placed on-line at subsidized rates.

The declining federal budget also may prompt partner-

ships with private industry in the future. Federal outlays

will be a declining proportion of GNP for the rest of the

century, with the growth rate of the budget steadily

declining (New American, 1986). In recent years, nearly

30 percent of federal spending has gone to pay old-age

benefits to the 1 1 percent of the population currently over

65. Far more will be receiving benefits in the future, as

the overall U.S. population ages. In 1986, interest on the

national debt (the fastest growing portion of the budget)

accounted for 1 8 percent of all federal spending (Long-

man, 1988). These and other pressures on the federal

treasury may force future information dissemination to

be self-sufficient, by means of the involvement of

commercial partners.

Access

Skill Requirements

What will be the minimum skill levels required of

users and depository librarians in accessing

electronically disseminated information?

Projections of median education and skill levels in the

future point to a wide divergence in patrons' basic

understanding of new technology and the information

that it will provide. A dichotomy is developing between

a small, undereducated and underskilled younger genera-

tion and a larger, educated and job- experienced retire-

ment cohort (Longman, 1988).

Longman also reported that today's younger generation

is not only comparatively small (due to low birth rates in

the last two decades), but also that an alarming propor-

tion of youth lack the basic skills that employers require.

Only 30 percent of today's 17- year-olds are classified as

"adept" readers (i.e., competent enough to go on to

college or to cope with business environments). In the

early 1980s, a 12-nation study found that U.S. average

comprehensive scores on seven school subjects always

were in the lower third.

Summer 1991 13



Since 1973, the poverty rate among Americans under 18

has increased more than 50 percent. Each year, hundreds

of thousands of young people reach working age without

the basic knowledge they need to learn even the simple

skills necessary for success in an entry-level job. The
implications for their use of depository libraries and

access to census data are serious: either data access must

be simplified to the extent that the unskilled can retrieve

needed information or depository librarians will experi-

ence a significantly increased workload acting as inter-

mediaries for such patrons. Otherwise, the unskilled will

become disenfranchised (see below).

Nearly all economists agree that the industrialized

nations are moving toward information-driven, rather

than energy-driven, economies in the next century. The
intellectual skills of the labor force in such systems will

become increasingly important to maintaining a com-
parative advantage in international trade. Skills deficien-

cies among younger patrons may create a frusuated,

information underprivileged class with comparatively

little real political power.

Fortunately, placement of CD-ROM devices in schools

and the development of improved interfaces may make
possible gradations of technological u.ser-friendliness in

the next 10-20 years, if either funding or equipment and
software donations to schools can be arranged. Literacy

either in the traditional sense or in a technological sense

will decrease in importance. For example, the Library of

Congress reading room reconstruction currently under

way will include installation of touch screen terminals. It

is hoped that such devices will help non-technically

sophisticated patrons access the collections (Bonnick &
Ralyea, 1990).

There is some question, however, whether library staff

will be skilled enough with the new technology. Part of

the startup costs associated with CD-ROM or even on-

line access as an integral part of the Depository Library

Program may be the training of staff so they can assist

others in using the systems.

Disenfranchisement

1990). They ask

1

.

Is widespread dissemination of public

information essential to the preservation of an

acceptable level of shared values among citizens?

2. Would acccess charges imperil that

acceptable level of shared values and create an

information underclass?

Future technology may provide the flexibility to manage
funding problems, making possible the continued

widespread availability of information.

Expensive, on-line access is not essential. More eco-

nomical CD-ROM media will be cheaper, and enhanced

video systems costing no more than a TV does today will

provide cheap, multimedia access (Bortnick & Relyea,

1990). To the extent that direct broadcast satellite

reception and public access cable channels are available,

those technologies may serve to democratize information

dissemination. (Direct broadcast is in use over India

today. As minimum antenna diameter shrinks to less

than a meter, home satellite reception may become much
more widespread than it is today. Also, within the

decade there may be enough cable capacity that almost

any group that wants its own channel can have it for

special broadcasts (New American, 1986).)

However, if market forces are allowed free reign, history

suggests that large businesses and institutions will have

disproportionate access to the new technology (and to the

information it provides), because they are most able to

afford capital and staffing costs and will have the most
influence in information systems development. If

funding continues to be a problem, younger individuals

may be disadvantaged in comparison to older users,

companies and universities.

User Demand
What impact will changes in work force

composition and employment arrangements have

upon the types of census information sought by
users?

To what degree might user fees and other costs of

accessing electronically disseminated information

disenfranchise individuals?

Since the founding of the depository library system, it

has been presumed that participatory democracy dictated

widespread dissemination of public information. How-
ever, the increasing cost of the distribution effort is

causing this premise to be reexamined. Some informa-

tion specialists question the societal costs and benefits of

universal information suffrage (Bortnick & Relyea,

The Aging Population

The number of Americans over age 75 will grow almost

35 percent by the year 2000. The U.S. population 65 or

over in 2035 will be 22 percent, vs. 12 percent in 1985

(Haub & von Cube, 1987). Currently, one of three

Americans is between 27 and 42 (the Baby Boom
generation). The oldest boomers are just 19 years away
from reaching the current average age of retirement

(Longman, 1988). One consequence of changes in age

distribution will be an increase in two-generation geriat-

ric famihes diuing the 1990s— adult children in their

lASSIST Quarleriy



60s and 70s caring for parents in their 90s (Outlook,

1989).

The population of retirees will be characterized by a

higher average level of education, a friendliness toward

business and free enterprise, entrepreneurism, a skepti-

cism toward big government, an inclination to regional-

ism, and a preference for decentralized regulation (New
American, 1986).

Between 1970 and 1980, life expectancy at 65 increased

more than nine percent (life expectancy at birth increased

only three percent, thus the fastest growing segment of

the population is the age group over 80). Both the

absolute number and the proportion of the population

under 25 are declining. By 1995, people 16 to 24 will be

only 16 percent of the population (they were 25 percent

in 1980) (Longman, 1988). Serious attempts to slow the

human aging processes and prolong life expectancy may
begin within the next decade (Outlook, 1989). By the

Year 2(XX), life expectancy will be 72.9 years for males

and 80.5 years for females (New American, 1986).

Also, the physical design and environment of America

(information services included) will start to change in the

1990s to accommodate a middle-aged and older popula-

tion. (For example, traffic lights will change more
slowly, allowing more time for less-agile people to get

across intersections).

The graying of America may have a significant impact

upon the types of information sought by individuals (and

institutions operating on their behalO- Seniors are likely

to have a special interest in census data because of its

link to medical and social security benefits, its bearing

upon invesunent and savings decisions, and its potential

as ammununition in lobbying Congress. They will have

more time to focus upon and use available data, and will

constitute a trained, educated clientele able to make
drastically increased demands upon the system.

Changes In The Work Force

By the year 2(XX), 95 percent of all jobs will be in service

industries that require workers who are familiar with

computers and other information processing technolo-

gies.

The U.S. may move toward a dual economy, where

professionals, scientists, engineers, technicians and other

skilled employees are on one end of the spectrum and a

large number of blue-collar workers, clerks, and service

workers are on the other (Lamm, 1985).

Telecommuting and other fiexible-place, flexible-lime

work schedules will become increasingly common as

employers acknowledge modem realities such as single

parent households and the stress of urban commuting

(Outlook, 1989). Changes in information need, therefore

in the use of depository library material, are certain to

follow such changes in lifestyle. Hobbies, travel, and

intellectual pursuits may become higher priority for

some, while others seek inforamtion in self-help, quality

of life areas.

Retirement may become a thing of the past, as seniors

remain in jobs at all levels in the workplace. Many
people will return to work after a sabbatical, act as

consultants or become "senior apprentices" to learn new
skills for a second or even third career (Outlook, 1989).

Multilingual Services

Work force and patron demographics also will drive the

development of multiUngual information services in the

next century's depository program. The population

growth of 12 percent anticipated for the next 15 years

will result almost entirely from high level immigration

and from the higher-than-replacemenl birthrate of new

immigrants (mostly Hispanic). In the mid-1990s,

Mexico's proportion of young job-seekers is due to about

double, while the kinds of entry-level jobs they seek at

home will shrink drastically. The result will be

enormous pressures at the border which will not be

entirely unwelcome, as U.S. employers struggle to deal

with a shortage of American-bom youngsters in the labor

force. The user community of the future will include a

steadily rising percentage of racial minorities, many
using English as a second language. By the Year 2000,

1 1 f)ercent of the population will be Hispanic and four

percent Asian; by 2020, Hispanics will be 15 percent

(New American, 1986).

Patrons whose first language is not English are likely to

need information in their native language, regarding

ciJturally specific subjects at variance with those sought

currently by typical depository library patrons. Immigra-

tion, employment and family data may be more impor-

tant to this group than to the population at large.

The growth in non-English patrons also may add impetus

to the development of non-culturally specific interfaces.

Even with new storage technology, simultaneous storage

of text in Asian and Hispanic languages as well as

English could be prohibitively expensive, as demon-

strated by the Canadian experience with French and

English. However, automatic translation systems being

developed as part of the next generation of computers

may help solve the multilingual problem. By the year

20()0, computers with automatic language translation and

voice-synthesis capabilities may enable people to speak

in one language that listeners will hear translated into

another language (Outlook, 1989).

Key Issues Requiring Public Debate

A number of key issues settled out of the literature

Summer 1991 15



review and interviews conducted for this study. These
are issues that either policymakers, the Bureau of the

Census or the depository hbraries need to address before

developing technology forces less than optimal solutions.

Policymakers

Should future information dissemination be

oriented toward individual users or toward

businesses and institutions?

Political and fiscal reality dictates that dissemination

decisions weigh business and institutional concerns over

those of individuals. These may include predominant

formats, time of availability for on-line services, content

of information disseminated, and fee structures. How-
ever, an effort should be made to ensure that institutions

served by depository dissemination are reasonably

responsive to individuals' requests, even if fees are

charged for services rendered.

Should joint ventures with private industry be

pursued as a means of funding future dissemination

in the face of a shrinking federal budget?

Fiscal reality may force government into partnerships

with public database agencies, and to lake advantage of

advanced indexing and retrieval software and to defray

data generation costs. However, in order to protect the

public's right to access government information, some
regulation of user fees charged by industry partners may
be necessary.

What policies should be adopted regarding

intellectual property rights in data analysis, access

software development and copyright protection?

Partnerships with industry will require special copyright

provisions to protect the rights of government's partners,

despite the fact that the products withheld would be
generated in part with public funds. Contract provisions

should state explicitly that key material is not "work for

hire", allowing contractors rather than the government to

retain copyright. Patents should be filed jointly by
contractors and the government. These protections will

need to extend specifically to indexing and retrieval

software and network protocols developed in support of

national on-line access systems. Government will no
longer be able to claim its right to contractor source code
and algorithms as a condition of working with private

industry.

How and where should advanced indexing and
retrieval software be procured for access to

machine-readable data?

If government enters into a partnership with private

industry for database management, the vital access

software will come from existing high quality products

held by commercial firms. Otherwise, a major contract-

ing effort will need to be staged to have suitable software

developed for use with electronically disseminated

federal information. Since technology will be evolving

rapidly, the decision to develop software under govern-

ment auspices would be a long term commitment of

funds and manpower.

What role should be played in coordination of

federal information dissemination policy to

eliminate fragmentation of jurisdiction over media,

content and formats?

It is clear that a single, centralized agency is needed to

coordinate electronic dissemination of federal informa-

tion. A quasi-govemment entity including representa-

tives from major actors such as the GPO, Congressional

agencies and depository libraries could be organized

under an Institute for Information Policy & Research (as

described in HR744, 1985). The tendency to date has

been for each agency to select its own standards and

media without regard for activities elsewhere in govern-

ment Further, conflicting funding and advocacy situ-

ations within congress and the executive branch have

frustrated standards development. The Bureau of the

Census should mount a concerted effort to help resolve

the jurisdictional confusion that currendy exists.

Bureau of the Census

How should demands for multilingual presentation

beaddressed?

There are two politically acceptable options. Either data

should be disseminated through the Depository Library

Program in EngUsh and Spanish, or it should be format-

ted in a markup language compatible with automatic

translation from English to a handful of user native

languages. It may be necessary to disseminate in two

languages until the technology is commonly available to

perform the automatic translation.

To what extent is the Census Bureau liable for

ensuring the integrity of data disseminated in

machine-readable formats?

The Census Bureau's liability for the integrity of elec-

tronically disseminated data is a question for serious

legal consideration in a relatively new area of the law. A
comprehensive study of legal issues related to data

integrity and other aspects of the new technology needs

to be conducted. These include tort liability for damages
due to the use of inaccurate or corrupted data and product

16 ASSIST Ouarteriy



liability in case dissemination includes destructive

computer viruses or defective media which physically

damage depository library equipment.

Would the Census Bureau be accountable for

invasion of privacy or threats to defense or industry

confidentiality that might result from the ability to

manipulate data in machine-readable format (the

"mosaic" issue)?

This issue may either be a moot fxjint, overtaken by

extensive networic integration worldwide, or a major

impediment to widespread dissemination. The Census

Bureau needs to examine not only its legal Uability

regarding privacy issues, but also its political defenses

against corporate and DoD initiatives that are certain to

be fielded <end indent both>as the technology makes
machme manipulation of public data possible.

To what extent should the Census Bureau be

involved in estabhshment of network protocol and

human interface standards both within government

and within industry?

The history of technological innovation has proven that

those who are not actively involved in standards setting

activities incur both real financial costs and intangible

political losses when standards drafted by others are

implemented. Despite considerable expenditures of

manpower and other resources, the Bureau of the Census

must attempt to guide the establishment of protocol and

interface standards.

How should responsibility and costs be divided for

creation and maintenance of on-line access

networks?

When on-line access becomes feasible, the Bureau of the

Census should implement the supercomputer centers

model to create and support the system. Businesses and

institutions should provide hardware and staff support,

while government maintains network interconnects and

polices protocol standards.

Should the Census Bureau abandon the depository

library program in favor of alternative means of

data dissemination, or be a driving force in

effecting a restructuring of the program in keeping

with new information needs and dissemination

technology?

The existing depository library program may need

substantial revision (e.g., removal of select libraries,

assessment of user fees, and collection specialization in

terms of media and content). If required, this might be

accompUshed via a cooperative arrangement with federal

agencies and other depository libraries. However, given

that near future electronic dissemination is likely to be

via CD-ROM rather than on-Une database access, the

distribution channels and procedures of the current

program may be useful into the next century. If direct

access by patrons using integrated networks or through

data centers becomes predominant. Census Bureau

participation in the depository library program may be

abandoned.

Depository Libraries

What types of training should be provided for

depository library staff to better enable them to

deal with the chaJlenges of new technology?

Member libraries need to train staff in two key aspects of

new technology application: (1) how to operate and

maintain local hardware and software themselves and (2)

how to best instruct and guide patrons in use of the

technology. Neither task will be easy, since there may be

significant differences among librarians in their degree of

technological sophistication (and motivation). Prepara-

tion of a training cadre for the Depository Library

Program should be undertaken immediately, funded

jointly by the Bureau of the Census, Congress and the

GPO. These master instructors in turn should brief

library training officers who could provide ongoing

familiarization at each Program site.

To what extent should collection acquisition,

operating and other funds be diverted to the

purchase of hardware and software to support the

use of electronically disseminated information?

It may be difficult to convince librarians to spend limited

funds on equipment to support user access rather than on

collection acquisition. However, in the long term funds

spent on electronic equipment will result in more exten-

sive and productive access to existing collections.

Because of the density of electronically disseminated

data, money invested in CD-ROM and associated

printers and services will quickly expand a library's

actual collection even as funds devoted to traditional

acquisition decline. Expenditures for hardware, software

and services related to electronic media should be a

significant line item in each faciUty's budget

Further Research

Should the Census Bureau decide upon the medium

and content of information disseminated based

upon extent and type of use research?

Given the resistance of the library community and the

seeming lack of space concerns for projected media, it

would seem unwise to attempt limiting the kinds of

Summer 1991 17



information disseminated through the Depository Library

Program. However, it would be prudent to undertake a

systematic and ongoing study of usage patterns in case

budget or technological constraints make filtering

necessary in the future. Patron preferences for specific

media in accessing certain types of information should be

evaluated.

Conclusion

This study was fielded under the presumption that

government will be required to continue providing public

access to federal information as part of its commitment to

maintaining the informed citizenry that is central to

participatory democracy.

The nature of that access, however, is entwined in a host

of social, economic and technology issues that must be

addressed promptly if the pace of change is not to

overwhelm policymakers as well as information interme-

diaries and users.

Information will be central to the knowledge economy of

postindustrial America. However, the population will be

split between a relatively affluent, educated retirement

community and a smaller unskilled, undereducated

younger group less able to deal with sophisticated

information access.

The generation and dissemination of knowledge will be

dependent upon the degree of protection for intellectual

property in an environment that features easy unauthor-

ized copying of proprietary materials. The technology

predominant at depository libraries will be CD-ROM,
with on-line database services a distant second, used
mainly for current updates of timely information.

Before emerging technology can approach its potential,

problems of efficient indexing and retrieval software,

hardware compatibility and protocol standards must be

resolved. Perhaps key in this effort will be a relaxation

of anti-trust regulation to facilitate cooperative research,

development and manufacture by major players in the

telecommuncations and computing industries.

Ultimately, the twin issues of funding and regulation

underlie all concerns regarding future information

technology. Given the declining resources of federal

government, privatization and user fees seem inevitable.

Privatization brings with it the prospect of reduced access

to public information, and user fees the near certainty of

disenfranchisement for a new underclass: the information

disadvantaged.

These problems are not inu-actable. However, significant

changes in the way we fund, generate, conux)l and
disseminate public information will be forced by techno-

logical change. If indeed those who do not learn from

the past are condemned to repeat it, those who do not

anticipate the future may be destined to live it amidst

laments of what might have been.

References

Bell, D. (1978). The postindustrial economy. In J.

Fowles, Handbook of Futures Research. Westport,

Conn.: Greenwood Press, 507-514.

Bezold, C. & Olson, R. (1986). The Information

Millenium: Alternative Futures. Washington: Informa-

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Summer 1991 19