Comparative Charting of Social

Change in Four Industrialized
Societies

by Simon Langlois'

Institut qiUbicois de recherche sur la culture

et Department de sociologie, Universiti Laval

Contemporary analysts of social change have somehow
abandoned the ambitious tenet of building a general

theory which could predict or explain all the contempo-
rary forms of social change. A search of laws of history,

or works on the stages of development (Rostow), are no
more pertinent R. Boudon has proposeid an analysis of

the reasons why such a loss of interest for a general

theory on social change occurred.

According to Boudon, social systems are not regulated

by general laws which are extensible to all societies.

Consequently, the search for universal laws must be
abandoned and analysis of social change must give up
the "monologic" perspective (Boudon 1983:104). In its

place, he suggests to draw some possible statements (in

French, "dnonc6s de possibles"), i.e. relationships which
have a certain probability, in a certain location and a
certain time, instead of general laws of the form of
conditional laws or transitional laws. From the Boudon's
individualistic approach, there is no more universal laws
because sociologist's observed propositions are in part

the results of aggregate actions of individuals.

Almost all general propositions (laws) in social sciences

are in fact situated observations which are not universal,

and it could be almost possible to pose counter-examples.
Otherwise, Boudon suggests to consider the existing

theories of social change as formal models which need to

be adapted to every specific and concrete situations.

Ted Caplos also criticized social change studies, more
precisely empirical studies, saying that the parallel

between social change and technological change is

misleading. "Instead of being continuous, like scientific-

technological progress, social change seems to be
episodic, non-consultative, non-consistent and non-
reversible" (Caplow, 1988:3).

Too severe a diagnosis? In fact, these two briefly

referred to comments, from different perspectives, reveal

or show a growing uneasiness with the traditional ways
of studying social change.

A new approach is essential, which will make possible to

observe and to consider the diversity of ongoing social

change, and, more precisely, which facilitate the observa-
tion of non-cumulalive and non-consistent change. This

can be done with social trend analysis.

Social trend analysis

Social trend analysis is sitting between social reporting

and system analysis of the global society.

Social indications "designate statistics that are supposed
to have significance for the quality of life, and sets of

social indicators designate a social report" (Mikalos,

1982:2). There is a normative perspective in construct-

ing social indicators. They intend to measure goal

attainment, or to evaluate and compare the respective

performance of different countries. By themselves,

social indicators do not form a social system. They are

built to measure different aspects or dimensions of social

life, or to evaluate current public policy and programmes.
International comparisons of social indicators are aimed
at comparing differential goal attainment from one
country to another. Countries are in fact located on a

continuum. Consider, for example, life expectancy in

good health after 65. Behind this social indicator, there

is a clear or precise objective: staying in good health as

long as possible. If this indicator increases, one expects

to say that the quality of life is increasing; and the quaUty
of life is supposed to be higher in a society in which this

indicator is also higher.

"Social indicators facilitate establishing social goals and
pohcies. For example, a time series comparing life

expectancy of several countries shows that life expec-

tancy in the United States if lower than in the United

Kingdom, Canada, Japan and Sweden. Such information

on levels attained by other countries shows us what is

attainable and stimulated action" (Ferris, 1988:609-610).

Opposed to social reporting, one finds global diagnosis

which summarize, under a single heading or a macro-
trend, a great lot of particular trends: post-modem
society, dependent society, traditional or modem society,

etc. A large number of segments are postulated to go in

the same direction, and the macro-trend either summa-
rizes these particular or specific trends, or is presented as

the cause which OTientate them in a certain direction: this

approach raises many questions: to what extent all the

trends are really convergent? For example, is France

really a post-modem society? Is it possible to speak of

the process of Europeanization in contemporary United

States (Oxford Analytica)?

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Trend analysis, in the perspective proposed here is

somewhere between the two approaches stated before.

A French research team, who have published an article

under the pseudonym Louis Dim, define trends in this

way: The trends which have been identified are some-
times in the nature of behaviour which can be isolated

and taken as an indicator of a more general movement.
For example, the decrease in religious practice or the

increase in participation in sport or spwts-related activi-

ties. Other trends are much more global, they formulate

an overall judgement on a social sector or on an aspect of

society. They refer to a sociological theory by which the

phenomenon is delimited and can be judged. (Louis

Dim, 1985:401)

The analysis of trends if often associated with the study

of phenomena which are quantifiable ot which have
direct relevance to government policies (income, unem-
ployment, population, etc.). Some trends are better

documented than others, mainly because they are based

on data or indicators gathered by a government statistical

office, indicators which have, in a way, received the

lion's share of analysis. Changes in income, voting,

fecundity, unemployment, for example, are better laiown

that those in division of domestic labour or in use of

leisure time. However trends can be analysed other than

quantitatively, it is also possible to discem the direction

of phenomena with a certain amount of accuracy by
using qualitative studies or monographs: strengthening of

kinship, increases in new forms of religious practice, etc.

It is this broad concept of trends such as these that we are

speaking of.

The trend is not an indicator nor a statistical series. It is a

diagnosis on a social segment, narrowly defined (declin-

ing fertility, for example) or much more wide (increasing

mobility of daily hfe). In the first case, the trend is in

fact close to an indicator, but in the second one, it comes
from the convergence of many indicators, of many
statistical series.

Our unit of analysis is a trend , i.e. a series of values

representing the incidence of some item of social behav-

ior in a given population at points of time in a consecu-

tive sequence. Guidelines, annexed).

The trend is a sector-based diagnosis of the changes in

and the direction of a phenomenon or of an aspect of

social reality, for example, a drop in the birth rate, an

increase in disposable income per inhabitant, an increase

in poverty, a decrease of the inequality between the

sexes, an increase in the importance of kinship, a growth
of individualism, a decrease in the practice of rehgion,

etc.

Trend analyses are in fact studies of the present situation

in light of the past It must not be confused with predic-

tion of the future, nor with futurology. It is a way of

studying changes "en cours". This perspective is impor-

tant for another reason: the comparative purpose.

Theoretical framework and method

The array of trends to be analysed is extremely tHXjad and

we did not want to use too narrow a theoretical frame-

work. The choice of trends cannot be firmly fixed since

it will be modified somewhat as the analysis goes along,

as the French experience has shown. The choice is not

based on definite theoretical bases, thus we are not

limiting ourselves to the study of marginal trends which

may reveal tomorrow's norms, for it is far from certain

that this will be the case. The critique of Reich's work,

the well-known essay on the new culture published in the

60's, by Hamilton and Wright (1986) is revealing in this

respect. It is no longer necessary to limit oneself to

known territory, because analysis should also be able to

discem new trends, especially outside the sjAere of work,

although this remains important This explains why the

choice of trends to be studied is based mainly on a group

of hypotheses, not a single one, and remains c^n to

change. The trends are in fact derived from sociologi-

cally driven categories.

We have agreed with the other research teams to give

priority to behaviour, ritualized situations in institutions

and to structures, giving lesser importance to values and

social perceptions. The priority given to recently identi-

fied trends does not mean that the realm of social percep-

tions will be completely absent Social representation is

less "objective", for lack of a better term, than behavior,

at least a priori. People's jobs, salaries, levels of educa-

tion, whether they have a reUgious or civil marriage, their

actual number of children, are thing which can be

observed quite accurately, taking errors of measures into

account. Aspirations as to salary, the feeUng of being

deprived, the kind of marriage intended, the number of

children desired, satisfaction in a couple's relationship,

are all kinds of perceptions and attitudes. Measures of

these things are not only filled with errors, they are also

more unstable. The number of children, salary or level of

education are characteristics which are probably more

stable than aspirations, for example.

As to theory, it seems difficult to omit the domain of

social imagery and to only take into account behaviour,

or more factual data on individuals. Let us not forget

that ^tors also give a meaning to their conduct. Measur-

ing perceptions, while difficult, thus seems relevant and

necessary to an in depth understanding of social phenom-
ena and conduct

The analysis of relations among trends is intended to be

still more inductive. At this stage of the project we want

to hypothesize as little as possible about the relation-

ships. Critical analysis of the literature shows that this

inductive approach can be very fruitful. We are not

starting out with a general theory about global society,

such as those of D. Bell, H. Braverman and others, no

matter how attractive and pertinent they may be. We
intend rather to work out empirically what the overall

interpretation might be, somewhat like the method of

Oxford Analytica in America in PerspecUve . An ex-

ample will illustrate our method. It is already possible to

gather, from the analysis of several indicators, some

Spring 1990 43



overall trends; an increase in individualism, mobility in

daily life, a change from hierarchy lo network, etc.

These broad trends are the result of observation of a large

number of indicators. It is now the analyst's task to

interpret the, to discern all the implications, so that the

process results in a tentative generalization or theory

about all the data.

It must be noted that the proposed study of trends will try

to work out, as far as possible, the variations in the sub-

groups such as age, sex, social and cultural group and
region. The trends are not consistent and enormous
differences exist side by side. This has been shown in

sevCTal recent studies, Bella's work, for example. TTie

analysis of trends will not be limited to the study of
average or means only.

Studying trends in four industrialized societies

Our proposed research project intends to identify the

principjj trends with characterize global society by doing
secondary analysis of existing data. Therefore, the first

task will be to trace and synthesize published or available

observations and analyses.

Up to now, nothing original, for such studies yet exist in

number, on all the possible objects. For example,
Canadian Social Trends publish excellent analysis on
different indicators and different trends. The same for

publications like British Social Attitude . Social and
Cultural Report (Holland), works published by Eurobar-
ometers, etc. There are fewer analyses of relationship

between trends, and fewer again are the attempts to study
systematic relationship between a large set of trends.

This is precisely what we are planning to do. The level

of the proposed analysis is somewhere between the social

reporting and the systemic analysis of a large, global,

macro-tend which summarize a very large sample of
specific trends.

The Louis Dim team in France took the initiative by
inviting other research groups from various countries lo

undertake a comparative analysis of trends, adopting as
closely as possible the methods which they have worked
out over the last several years. Three teams have already

agreed to participate in the project, one from the USA,
led by Theodore Caplow, a German team led by Glatzer
and Hondrich, and an IQRC team from Quebec, led by S.

Langlois. A preliminary meeting was held in Paris in

May of 1987 to establish the main goals of the project

and to choose which trends which would be observed.
The project at hand is now part of a co-operative venture
involving several teams from various countries, teams
which share the same goal and approach to the study.

The Quebec team, based at IQRC, has been given the

secretarial role in this little group, coordinating the

development of this project

The area to be covered and the indicators are not chosen
for the purpose of verifying a particular theory of social

change, nor to illustrate a dominant trend (for example,
the increase in individualism in contemporary society).

We know as well that many of the indicators of social

change which are used, in scientific analyses and in

public debate, reflect an era when the majority of the

population spent most of its time working and the times

when survival was a daily challenge: unemployment,
standard of Uving based on steady income, poverty, jobs

and social position were and are the indicators most
relied on in studies of the social structure. We do not

deny their relevance, quite the contrary, but it seems to us

necessary to develop others which can reveal ongoing
social changes (owning a second home, mass media
consumption, touristic travel abroad, etc.), indicators

which are usually outside the sphere of work which will

point out new trends. Anything to do with the world of

work will, however, still have an important place in the

analysis of trends.

The final choice of the data to be analysed, of the trends

to be examined, was based on hypotheses in existing

monographs or put forward in some theories about social

change, but also, relied on the observations of researchers

and on research going on elsewhere, always taking

available date into account

A number of 79 trends were identified at the first meeting

of the international group in which our team is participat-

ing, based on a preliminary list drawn up by the French
team. We agree that the area to be covered is vast It can

be done, however. The Louis Dim group's first attempts

which is going on in France showed this. Basically, it is

a question of drawing up a brief synthesis of what is

known, in the form of trends, about each of the things on
the list

Each team undertakes an analysis of the trends which
describe its own society, while following the common
method as closely as possible, basically that suggested in

the article by L. Dim, 1985, in order to allow for later

comparative study. The importance, or the interest, of a
comparative study is obvious. It is, among other things,

an excellent way to the extend the analysis of causal

relations. Let us lock at a known example: Has develop-

ment of education promoted an increase in intergenera-

lional social mobility? There may be a whole new light

put on the analysis of relations between these two trends

after comparative examination by four societies.

This comparative study of different societies poses

enormous problems. Faced with these problems, there

are two attitudes lo lake. We could do nothing, since

there are so many difficulties. Or we would try lo iron

out the problems in order to prepare a trial method,

however imperfect it may be at first. This is what we
decided upon. In order to smooth out the difficulties, it

was agreed that a common grid of theses for the study of

trends would be drawn up and that as much as possible,

the representative data conceming the overall society

would be used and the measures to be used would be
clearly elucidated. But, above all, it was agreed what the

proposed comparative analysis would bear on the

direction of &ends and the relations among the trends

themselves. This approach minimizes the problems of
comparison to some extent. Thus, it is not a rate or a

precise measure which is to be compared (rate of unem-
ployment, real income, etc.) but the direction of a trend

and its relation to other trends.

lASSIST Quarterly



The data

We will be carrying out a secondary analysis of existing

data and a synthesis of published works on a given

subject. We will be trying to obtain a set of statistics,

standardized as much as possible, starting from 1%1 if

possible, or from 1970, so as to have at least about fifteen

years of observation in order to discern a trend. Where
statistics may not be available, we will look for data

observed for at least three separate periods of time, again

so as to discern trends. This will be done mainly for the

secondary analysis of data from surveys and the study of

changes in social perceptions.

We have already identified about 250 series of statistics

with which to characterize the trends we will deal with.

Others will be added as the project advances, because the

research consists precisely of identifying or even con-

structing such series for later analysis. The list of data is

too long to include here. Examples are number of

automobiles, real income per capita, circulation of daily

newspapers, etc.

Priority will be given to quantitative data which can be
compared in a given society and later between societies.

PreUminary examination indicates that for the majority of

trends in the attached list it is possible to fmd out at least

one set of statistics. This preliminary data base will be

completed by qualitative observations and analyses or by
monographs concerning "phenomena portending the

future", always working from secondary sources. These

observations will clarify the process of some extent

Scientinc and social significance of the project

This project may seem ambitious to some. However, the

French experience during the past four or five years

proves that it can be done and the results can be fruitful.

The scope of the project is broad: the diagnosis of global

society and its social changes using secondary analyses.

One of the project's interests is to use existing date in

order to arrive at a more in-depth analysis.

The comparative dimension should also be stressed.

Despite the difficulties that this presents, we believe that

the results will be {woductive. The comparison with

other countries will allow us to go ahead with certain

interpretations.

COMPARATIVE CHARTING OF SOCIAL
CHANGE

LIST OF TRENDS

(Quebec, December 1988)

0. Context

0.1 Demographic trends

0.2 Macro-economic trends

0.3 Macro-technological trends

1. Age Groups

1.1 Youth

1.2 Elders

2. Microsocial

2.1 Self identification

2.2 Kinship networks

2.3 Community and neighbour-hood types

2.4 Local autonomy

2.5 Voluntary associations

2.6 SociabiUty netwwks

3. Women

3.1 Female roles

3.2 Childbearing

3.3 Matrimonial models

3.4 Women's employment

3.5 Reproductive technologies

4. Labour Market

4.1 Unemployment

4.2 Skills and occupational levels

4.3 Types of employment

4.4 Sectors of the labour force

4.5 Computerization of work

5. Labour and Management

5.1 Structuring of jobs

5.2 Personnel administration

5.3 Size and types of enter-prises

6. Social Stratification

6.1 Occupational status

6.2 Social mobiUty

6.3 Economic inequality

6.4 Social inequality

7. Social Relations

7.1 Conflict

7.2 Negotiation

7.3 Norms of conduct

7.4 Authority

7.5 Public opinion

Spring 1990



8. State and Service Institutions

8.1 Educational system

i2 Health system

8.3 Welfare system

8.4 Presence of state in society

9. Mobilizing Institutions

9.1 Labour unions

92 Religious institutions

9.3 Military forces

9.4 Political parties

9.5 Mass media

10. Institutionalization of Social Forces

10.1 Dispute settlement

10.2 Institutionalization of labour unions

10.3 Social movements

10.4 Interest groups

11. Ideologies

11.1 Political differentiation

1 1.2 Confidence in institutions

1 1.3 Economic orientations

11.4 Radicalism

1 1.5 Religious beliefs

14.3 Athletics and sports

14.4 Cultural activities

15. Educational Attainment

15.1 General education

15.2 Professional education

15.5 Continuing education

16. Exclusionary Phenomena

16.1 Immigrants and ethnic mincxities

16.2 Crime and punishment

16.3 Behavioral and emotional

16.4 Poverty

17. Attitudes and Values

17.1 Satisfaction in life domains and in general

1 7.2 Perceptions of social problems

17.3 Orientations to the future

17.4 Values

17.5 National identity

'Presented at the IFDO/IASSIST 89 Conference held in

Jerusalem, Israel, May 15-18, 1989

12. Household resources

12.1 Personal and family income

12.2 Informal economy

12.3 Personal health and wealth

13. Lifestyle

13.1 Market goods and services

13.2 Mass information

13.3 Personal health and disorders beauty practices

13.4 Time use

13.5 Daily mobility

13.6 Household production

13.7 Forms of erotic expression

13.8 Intoxication

14. Leisure

14.1 Amount and use of free time

14.2 Vacation patterns

lASSIST Quarterly



The International Research Group for the
Comparative Charting of Social Change

(Club de Quebec)

GuideSines For New Members

Introduction

The International Research Group on the Comparative
Charting of Social Change in Advanced Industrial

Societies, informally known as the Club de Quebec, was
founded in 1986 by a group of sociologists and historians

from France, West Germany, Canada, and the United

States, who had been studying social trends in the

respective countries. These separate studies attracted a

fair amount of .scholarly and popular attention but did not

advance our general understanding of contemporary
industrial society as much as they should have, for want
of a comparative perspective. Without systematic

international comparisons, it is impossible to know
whether trends we discover in national societies are local

accidents or features of a larger system.

Another reason for combining our efforts was that we
had been using different methods to delineate social

trends and wanted to standardize them to facilitate

comparison.

The project was initially sponsored by Council for

European Studies, but each national team has found the

financial support of its own research operations. The
Canadian team assumed responsibility for maintaining a

central secretariat, at the Universitd Laval in Quebec.
Meetings have been hosted in rotation by national teams:

at Charlottesville in April 1986> Paris in April 1987, Bad
Homburg in June 1988, Quebec in December 1988, and
Charlottesville again in May 1989.

At Quebec in December 1988, responding to a request

from Professor Constantin TsoukaJas of iJie National

Social Research Center in Athens, the members voted to

admit additional national teams on the following condi-

tions:

1

.

Persons proposing to establish a national team, and
professional personnel subsequently added to a national

team, must be individually approved by a vote of the

genera] membership of the International Research Group.

2. National teams are obligated to follow the research

methods adopted by the International Research Group,
including the standard format of trend reports, the list of

trends for which reports are prepared, and the criteria for

acceptable data.

3. Trend reports may be written in any language, but

each national team has the responsibility of eventually

making its reports available for publication in English.

4. Members of any national team shall have full access

for their own scholarly purposes to the data gathered by
other national teams, and shall make their own data

reciprocally available.

The Research Problem

Social change is too large a topic to be manageable
without further specification. We are specifically

interested in the late twentieth century, the industrialized

or partly industrialized nations and the social structures

and institutional patterns that characterize the behavior of

mass societies, especially those associated with the

family, voluntary associations, work, leisure, education,

religion, government and politics. Our unit of analysis is

a trend , i.e. a series of values representing the incidence

of some item of social behavior in a given population at

points of time in a consecutive sequence. Most of our

work has been done with time series 10 to 60 years long,

ending as recently as possible, and covering such matters

as family income, household expenditures, employment
and unemployment, working conditions, the informal

economy, marriage and divorce, household composition,

kin networks, housing, migration, educational achieve-

ment, criminality, leisure patterns, health care, social

movements, and so forth.

In the scholarly literature, a few trends have received the

lion's share of attention. Economists have looked very

closely at trends in economic growth, prices and wages.

Political scientists have studied twentieth century trends

in voting and party affiliation. Demographers have

scrutinized trends in fertility and mortality. It is no
coincidence that these are the areas of social life which

lend themselves most readily to quantification and offer

the longest time series. But a description of social

change that limited itself to trends in economic develop-

ment, political participation and population would be

incomplete indeed. Even though quantification is

initially more difficult in other institutional sectors, many
of the difficulties have been overcome in recent years,

and we can anticipate that the quality of data will con-

tinue to im{HX)ve.

The International Research Group's standard list of

Spring 1990



trends and indicators currently includes 77 trends

grouped into 18 major categories. It is attached hereto.

Note that the development of a national profile calls for

the preparation of 77 trend reports, each cwresponding to

one of the numbered subheadings in the list, from 0.1

Demographic Trends to 17.5 National Identity. The first

four national teams have already finished this phase of

work, which takes from 12 to 36 months depending upon
the man- and woman-power available, and they are

currently engaged in the more challenging task of

comparing their results. We anticipate that new national

teams will complete their national profiles at various

times during the next five years and we believe that this

staggered schedule may be intellectually advantageous.

Following the list of trends and indicators, you will find,

first, the standard format for trend repots, and second, a

review of the project's long-term goals by two partici-

pants.

Format for the Presentation of Trend Reports

Coverage

A trend report is i»«pared for each numbered subheading
in the List of Trends and Indicators, e.g. 0. 1 Demo-
graphic Trends, 0.2 Macroeconomic Trends, 0.3, Tech-
nological Trends. The items listed underneath each
subheading constitute a check-list of topics that should

be covered in the trend report, but the checklist is not
intended to be inclusive.

Arrangement

A trend report normally has four sections: a brief sum-
mary of about five lines at the beginning, an explanatory

text, a section of tables and figures, and a bibliography.

Each table or figure is placed on a separate page. Factual

statements in the explanatory text, as well as all tables

and figures, should be fully referenced, but the bibliogra-

phy is usually much more extensive than would be
required for direct referencing alone.

If possible, trend reports should be prepared on an IBM
or IBM-compatible personal computer, using Word
Perfect for the text

Labels

Every page of every trend report is labeled for each
identification, as in this example:

[CCSC-US, 3/8/88, Trend #4,1, Draft #3, AC, Page #4]

Interpreted as follows:

Comparative Charting of SocialCCSC-US
Change,

Trend #4.1:

Draft #3:

AC:
case

Page 4:

Taken from List of Trends and Indicators,

4.1 Unemployment.

Self-explanatory

Preparer's initials, A. Carrier in this

Of this trend report

Criteriafor Data

1

.

The data were obtained by empirical measurement or

observation.

2. The data refer to an entire national society or a

representative sample thereof.

3. The data may be expressed as a time series.

4. The time series covers a period of at least ten years,

ending in 1983 or later.

5. The time series include measurements or observations

for three or more time-intervals, obtained contemporane-
ously.

6. The data are defined in such a way that the measure-
ments or observations can be replicated in other national

societies.

7. The data are defined in such a way that the measure-

ments or observations can be replicated in the same
national society in future years.

3/8/88:

United States

Date Prepared

48 lASSIST Quarterly