id	sid	tid	token	lemma	pos
iajs-2631	1	1	100	100	NUM
iajs-2631	1	2	ibn	ibn	PROPN
iajs-2631	1	3	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	1	4	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	1	5	haitham	haitham	PROPN
iajs-2631	1	6	jour	jour	X
iajs-2631	1	7	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	1	8	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	1	9	pure	pure	ADJ
iajs-2631	1	10	&	&	CCONJ
iajs-2631	1	11	appl	appl	PROPN
iajs-2631	1	12	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	2	1	sci	sci	PROPN
iajs-2631	2	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	3	1	34	34	NUM
iajs-2631	3	2	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	3	3	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	3	4	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	3	5	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	3	6	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	3	7	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	3	8	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	3	9	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	3	10	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	3	11	forecasting	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	3	12	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	3	13	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	3	14	ali	ali	PROPN
iajs-2631	3	15	hussein	hussein	PROPN
iajs-2631	3	16	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	3	17	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	3	18	moders	moder	NOUN
iajs-2631	3	19	tasnim	tasnim	NOUN
iajs-2631	3	20	h.	h.	PROPN
iajs-2631	3	21	kadhim	kadhim	PROPN
iajs-2631	3	22	ahussaein287@gmail.com	ahussaein287@gmail.com	X
iajs-2631	3	23	tasnim.h@sc.uobaghdad.edu.iq	tasnim.h@sc.uobaghdad.edu.iq	PROPN
iajs-2631	4	1	department	department	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	2	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	4	3	mathematics	mathematic	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	4	5	collage	collage	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	6	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	4	7	science	science	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	8	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	4	9	university	university	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	10	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	4	11	baghdad	baghdad	PROPN
iajs-2631	4	12	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	4	13	baghdadiraq	baghdadiraq	PROPN
iajs-2631	4	14	abstract	abstract	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	15	there	there	PRON
iajs-2631	4	16	are	be	VERB
iajs-2631	4	17	many	many	ADJ
iajs-2631	4	18	methods	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	19	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	4	20	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	21	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	4	22	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	4	23	these	these	DET
iajs-2631	4	24	methods	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	25	take	take	VERB
iajs-2631	4	26	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	27	only	only	ADV
iajs-2631	4	28	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	4	29	analyze	analyze	VERB
iajs-2631	4	30	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	4	31	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	4	32	make	make	VERB
iajs-2631	4	33	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	4	34	prediction	prediction	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	35	by	by	ADP
iajs-2631	4	36	analyzing	analyze	VERB
iajs-2631	4	37	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	4	38	neglect	neglect	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	39	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	4	40	prior	prior	ADJ
iajs-2631	4	41	information	information	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	42	side	side	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	43	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	4	44	do	do	AUX
iajs-2631	4	45	not	not	PART
iajs-2631	4	46	considering	consider	VERB
iajs-2631	4	47	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	4	48	fluctuations	fluctuation	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	49	that	that	PRON
iajs-2631	4	50	occur	occur	VERB
iajs-2631	4	51	overtime	overtime	NOUN
iajs-2631	4	52	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	5	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	5	2	best	good	ADJ
iajs-2631	5	3	way	way	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	4	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	5	5	forecast	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	5	6	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	7	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	8	that	that	PRON
iajs-2631	5	9	takes	take	VERB
iajs-2631	5	10	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	5	11	fluctuations	fluctuation	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	12	that	that	PRON
iajs-2631	5	13	occur	occur	VERB
iajs-2631	5	14	overtime	overtime	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	15	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	5	16	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	5	17	updated	update	VERB
iajs-2631	5	18	by	by	ADP
iajs-2631	5	19	entering	enter	VERB
iajs-2631	5	20	prior	prior	ADJ
iajs-2631	5	21	information	information	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	22	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	5	23	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	5	24	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	25	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	5	26	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	27	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	5	28	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	5	29	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	30	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	5	31	method	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	5	32	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	6	1	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	2	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	3	fluctuations	fluctuation	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	4	have	have	VERB
iajs-2631	6	5	an	an	DET
iajs-2631	6	6	important	important	ADJ
iajs-2631	6	7	role	role	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	8	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	6	9	economic	economic	ADJ
iajs-2631	6	10	so	so	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	11	predictions	prediction	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	12	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	6	13	future	future	ADJ
iajs-2631	6	14	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	15	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	16	that	that	PRON
iajs-2631	6	17	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	6	18	crucial	crucial	ADJ
iajs-2631	6	19	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	6	20	many	many	ADJ
iajs-2631	6	21	countries	country	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	22	whose	whose	DET
iajs-2631	6	23	economies	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	24	depend	depend	VERB
iajs-2631	6	25	mainly	mainly	ADV
iajs-2631	6	26	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	6	27	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	6	28	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	6	29	such	such	ADJ
iajs-2631	6	30	as	as	ADP
iajs-2631	6	31	iraq	iraq	PROPN
iajs-2631	6	32	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	7	1	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	7	2	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	7	3	directly	directly	ADV
iajs-2631	7	4	affect	affect	VERB
iajs-2631	7	5	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	7	6	health	health	NOUN
iajs-2631	7	7	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	7	8	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	7	9	economy	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	7	10	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	8	1	thus	thus	ADV
iajs-2631	8	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	8	3	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	8	4	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	8	5	necessary	necessary	ADJ
iajs-2631	8	6	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	8	7	forecast	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	8	8	future	future	ADJ
iajs-2631	8	9	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	8	10	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	8	11	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	8	12	models	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	8	13	adapted	adapt	VERB
iajs-2631	8	14	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	8	15	emerging	emerge	VERB
iajs-2631	8	16	events	event	NOUN
iajs-2631	8	17	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	9	1	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	9	2	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	9	3	article	article	NOUN
iajs-2631	9	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	9	5	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	9	6	study	study	VERB
iajs-2631	9	7	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	9	8	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	9	9	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	9	10	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	9	11	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	9	12	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	9	13	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	9	14	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	9	15	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	9	16	forecasting	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	9	17	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	9	18	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	9	19	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	10	1	results	result	NOUN
iajs-2631	10	2	show	show	VERB
iajs-2631	10	3	that	that	SCONJ
iajs-2631	10	4	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	10	5	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	10	6	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	10	7	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	10	8	will	will	AUX
iajs-2631	10	9	increase	increase	VERB
iajs-2631	10	10	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	10	11	156.2	156.2	NUM
iajs-2631	10	12	$	$	NUM
iajs-2631	10	13	by	by	ADP
iajs-2631	10	14	2035	2035	NUM
iajs-2631	10	15	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	11	1	keywords	keyword	NOUN
iajs-2631	11	2	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	11	3	bayesian	bayesian	VERB
iajs-2631	11	4	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	11	5	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	11	6	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	11	7	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	11	8	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	11	9	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	11	10	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	11	11	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	11	12	inference	inference	NOUN
iajs-2631	11	13	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	11	14	prior	prior	ADJ
iajs-2631	11	15	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	11	16	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	11	17	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	12	1	1	1	X
iajs-2631	12	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	12	3	introduction	introduction	NOUN
iajs-2631	12	4	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	12	5	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	12	6	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	12	7	incredibly	incredibly	ADV
iajs-2631	12	8	significant	significant	ADJ
iajs-2631	12	9	as	as	ADP
iajs-2631	12	10	an	an	DET
iajs-2631	12	11	economic	economic	ADJ
iajs-2631	12	12	source	source	NOUN
iajs-2631	12	13	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	12	14	iraq	iraq	PROPN
iajs-2631	12	15	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	12	16	because	because	SCONJ
iajs-2631	12	17	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	12	18	fact	fact	NOUN
iajs-2631	12	19	there	there	PRON
iajs-2631	12	20	is	be	VERB
iajs-2631	12	21	no	no	DET
iajs-2631	12	22	economy	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	12	23	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	12	24	iraq	iraq	PROPN
iajs-2631	12	25	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	13	1	iraq	iraq	PROPN
iajs-2631	13	2	depends	depend	VERB
iajs-2631	13	3	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	13	4	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	13	5	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	13	6	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	13	7	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	13	8	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	14	1	this	this	PRON
iajs-2631	14	2	was	be	AUX
iajs-2631	14	3	what	what	PRON
iajs-2631	14	4	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	14	5	noticed	notice	VERB
iajs-2631	14	6	when	when	SCONJ
iajs-2631	14	7	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	14	8	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	14	9	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	14	10	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	14	11	decreased	decrease	VERB
iajs-2631	14	12	due	due	ADJ
iajs-2631	14	13	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	14	14	coronavirus	coronavirus	NOUN
iajs-2631	14	15	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	15	1	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	15	2	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	15	3	have	have	VERB
iajs-2631	15	4	two	two	NUM
iajs-2631	15	5	major	major	ADJ
iajs-2631	15	6	junctures	juncture	NOUN
iajs-2631	15	7	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	15	8	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	15	9	first	first	ADJ
iajs-2631	15	10	juncture	juncture	NOUN
iajs-2631	15	11	initiated	initiate	VERB
iajs-2631	15	12	from	from	ADP
iajs-2631	15	13	1859	1859	NUM
iajs-2631	15	14	when	when	SCONJ
iajs-2631	15	15	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	15	16	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	15	17	was	be	AUX
iajs-2631	15	18	discovered	discover	VERB
iajs-2631	15	19	until	until	ADP
iajs-2631	15	20	1970	1970	NUM
iajs-2631	15	21	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	15	22	when	when	SCONJ
iajs-2631	15	23	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	15	24	organization	organization	NOUN
iajs-2631	15	25	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	15	26	opec	opec	PROPN
iajs-2631	15	27	was	be	AUX
iajs-2631	15	28	established	establish	VERB
iajs-2631	15	29	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	15	30	instituted	institute	VERB
iajs-2631	15	31	itself	itself	PRON
iajs-2631	15	32	as	as	ADP
iajs-2631	15	33	one	one	NUM
iajs-2631	15	34	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	15	35	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	15	36	important	important	ADJ
iajs-2631	15	37	players	player	NOUN
iajs-2631	15	38	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	15	39	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	15	40	market	market	NOUN
iajs-2631	15	41	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	16	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	16	2	second	second	ADJ
iajs-2631	16	3	juncture	juncture	NOUN
iajs-2631	16	4	has	have	AUX
iajs-2631	16	5	been	be	AUX
iajs-2631	16	6	initiated	initiate	VERB
iajs-2631	16	7	since	since	SCONJ
iajs-2631	16	8	1970	1970	NUM
iajs-2631	16	9	till	till	SCONJ
iajs-2631	16	10	present	present	ADJ
iajs-2631	16	11	where	where	SCONJ
iajs-2631	16	12	new	new	ADJ
iajs-2631	16	13	producers	producer	NOUN
iajs-2631	16	14	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	16	15	government	government	NOUN
iajs-2631	16	16	companies	company	NOUN
iajs-2631	16	17	have	have	AUX
iajs-2631	16	18	come	come	VERB
iajs-2631	16	19	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	16	20	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	16	21	market	market	NOUN
iajs-2631	16	22	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	17	1	there	there	PRON
iajs-2631	17	2	are	be	VERB
iajs-2631	17	3	many	many	ADJ
iajs-2631	17	4	opinions	opinion	NOUN
iajs-2631	17	5	that	that	PRON
iajs-2631	17	6	explain	explain	VERB
iajs-2631	17	7	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	17	8	impact	impact	NOUN
iajs-2631	17	9	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	17	10	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	17	11	change	change	NOUN
iajs-2631	17	12	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	17	13	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	17	14	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	17	15	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	17	16	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	17	17	global	global	ADJ
iajs-2631	17	18	economy	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	17	19	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	18	1	morana	morana	PROPN
iajs-2631	19	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	19	2	1	1	NUM
iajs-2631	19	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	19	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	19	5	barsky	barsky	PROPN
iajs-2631	19	6	[	[	X
iajs-2631	19	7	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	19	8	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	19	9	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	19	10	kilian.l	kilian.l	PROPN
iajs-2631	19	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	20	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	20	2	3	3	NUM
iajs-2631	20	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	20	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	20	5	segal.p	segal.p	NOUN
iajs-2631	20	6	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	21	2	4	4	NUM
iajs-2631	21	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	5	sundry	sundry	ADJ
iajs-2631	21	6	studies	study	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	7	found	find	VERB
iajs-2631	21	8	that	that	SCONJ
iajs-2631	21	9	high	high	ADJ
iajs-2631	21	10	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	11	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	12	have	have	VERB
iajs-2631	21	13	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	21	14	negative	negative	ADJ
iajs-2631	21	15	impact	impact	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	16	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	21	17	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	18	importing	import	VERB
iajs-2631	21	19	countries	country	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	20	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	21	21	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	21	22	positive	positive	ADJ
iajs-2631	21	23	effect	effect	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	24	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	21	25	countries	country	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	26	whose	whose	DET
iajs-2631	21	27	economies	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	28	depend	depend	VERB
iajs-2631	21	29	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	21	30	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	31	ibn	ibn	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	32	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	33	haitham	haitham	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	34	journal	journal	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	35	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	21	36	pure	pure	ADJ
iajs-2631	21	37	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	21	38	applied	apply	VERB
iajs-2631	21	39	science	science	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	40	journal	journal	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	41	homepage	homepage	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	42	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	43	http://jih.uobaghdad.edu.iq/index.php/j/index	http://jih.uobaghdad.edu.iq/index.php/j/index	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	44	doi	doi	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	45	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	46	10.30526/34.2.2631	10.30526/34.2.2631	NUM
iajs-2631	21	47	article	article	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	48	history	history	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	49	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	50	received,25	received,25	ADV
iajs-2631	21	51	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	52	augest	aug	ADJ
iajs-2631	21	53	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	54	2020	2020	NUM
iajs-2631	21	55	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	56	accepted	accept	VERB
iajs-2631	21	57	28	28	NUM
iajs-2631	21	58	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	59	september,2020	september,2020	VERB
iajs-2631	21	60	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	61	published	publish	VERB
iajs-2631	21	62	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	21	63	april	april	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	64	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	21	65	mailto:ahussaein287@gmail.com	mailto:ahussaein287@gmail.com	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	66	mailto:tasnim.h@sc.uobaghdad.edu.iq	mailto:tasnim.h@sc.uobaghdad.edu.iq	NOUN
iajs-2631	21	67	101	101	NUM
iajs-2631	21	68	ibn	ibn	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	69	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	70	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	21	71	haitham	haitham	PROPN
iajs-2631	21	72	jour	jour	X
iajs-2631	21	73	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	22	1	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	22	2	pure	pure	ADJ
iajs-2631	22	3	&	&	CCONJ
iajs-2631	22	4	appl	appl	PROPN
iajs-2631	22	5	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	23	1	sci	sci	PROPN
iajs-2631	23	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	24	1	34	34	NUM
iajs-2631	24	2	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	24	3	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	24	4	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	24	5	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	24	6	revenues	revenue	NOUN
iajs-2631	24	7	[	[	X
iajs-2631	24	8	5,6	5,6	NUM
iajs-2631	24	9	]	]	X
iajs-2631	24	10	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	25	1	moreover	moreover	ADV
iajs-2631	25	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	25	3	such	such	ADJ
iajs-2631	25	4	positive	positive	ADJ
iajs-2631	25	5	effect	effect	NOUN
iajs-2631	25	6	impact	impact	NOUN
iajs-2631	25	7	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	25	8	higher	high	ADJ
iajs-2631	25	9	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	25	10	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	25	11	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	25	12	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	25	13	exporting	export	VERB
iajs-2631	25	14	iraq	iraq	PROPN
iajs-2631	25	15	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	25	16	found	find	VERB
iajs-2631	25	17	out	out	ADP
iajs-2631	25	18	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	25	19	be	be	AUX
iajs-2631	25	20	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	25	21	most	most	ADV
iajs-2631	25	22	useful	useful	ADJ
iajs-2631	25	23	[	[	X
iajs-2631	25	24	7,8	7,8	NUM
iajs-2631	25	25	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	25	26	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	26	1	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	26	2	make	make	VERB
iajs-2631	26	3	suitable	suitable	ADJ
iajs-2631	26	4	decisions	decision	NOUN
iajs-2631	26	5	about	about	ADP
iajs-2631	26	6	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	26	7	direction	direction	NOUN
iajs-2631	26	8	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	26	9	economic	economic	ADJ
iajs-2631	26	10	policy	policy	NOUN
iajs-2631	26	11	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	26	12	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	26	13	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	26	14	important	important	ADJ
iajs-2631	26	15	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	26	16	accurately	accurately	ADV
iajs-2631	26	17	forecast	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	26	18	future	future	ADJ
iajs-2631	26	19	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	26	20	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	27	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	27	2	9	9	NUM
iajs-2631	27	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	27	4	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	28	1	global	global	ADJ
iajs-2631	28	2	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	28	3	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	28	4	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	28	5	2008	2008	NUM
iajs-2631	28	6	witnessed	witness	VERB
iajs-2631	28	7	rise	rise	NOUN
iajs-2631	28	8	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	28	9	$	$	SYM
iajs-2631	28	10	134	134	NUM
iajs-2631	28	11	/	/	SYM
iajs-2631	28	12	bbl	bbl	NOUN
iajs-2631	28	13	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	28	14	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	28	15	which	which	PRON
iajs-2631	28	16	has	have	AUX
iajs-2631	28	17	been	be	AUX
iajs-2631	28	18	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	28	19	an	an	DET
iajs-2631	28	20	upward	upward	ADJ
iajs-2631	28	21	trend	trend	NOUN
iajs-2631	28	22	since	since	SCONJ
iajs-2631	28	23	2003	2003	NUM
iajs-2631	28	24	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	29	1	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	29	2	2014	2014	NUM
iajs-2631	29	3	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	29	4	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	29	5	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	29	6	crude	crude	ADJ
iajs-2631	29	7	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	29	8	fell	fall	VERB
iajs-2631	29	9	below	below	ADP
iajs-2631	29	10	$	$	SYM
iajs-2631	29	11	50	50	NUM
iajs-2631	29	12	/bbl	/bbl	NOUN
iajs-2631	29	13	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	30	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	30	2	proven	prove	VERB
iajs-2631	30	3	iraqi	iraqi	ADJ
iajs-2631	30	4	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	30	5	reserves	reserve	NOUN
iajs-2631	30	6	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	30	7	about	about	ADV
iajs-2631	30	8	112	112	NUM
iajs-2631	30	9	billion	billion	NUM
iajs-2631	30	10	barrels	barrel	NOUN
iajs-2631	30	11	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	30	12	while	while	SCONJ
iajs-2631	30	13	80	80	NUM
iajs-2631	30	14	%	%	NOUN
iajs-2631	30	15	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	30	16	iraqi	iraqi	ADJ
iajs-2631	30	17	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	30	18	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	30	19	uncertain	uncertain	ADJ
iajs-2631	30	20	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	30	21	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	30	22	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	30	23	total	total	ADJ
iajs-2631	30	24	unconfirmed	unconfirmed	ADJ
iajs-2631	30	25	reserve	reserve	NOUN
iajs-2631	30	26	ratio	ratio	NOUN
iajs-2631	30	27	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	30	28	about	about	ADV
iajs-2631	30	29	360	360	NUM
iajs-2631	30	30	billion	billion	NUM
iajs-2631	30	31	barrels	barrel	NOUN
iajs-2631	30	32	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	31	1	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	31	2	1996	1996	NUM
iajs-2631	31	3	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	31	4	during	during	ADP
iajs-2631	31	5	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	31	6	blockade	blockade	NOUN
iajs-2631	31	7	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	31	8	iraq	iraq	PROPN
iajs-2631	31	9	relied	rely	VERB
iajs-2631	31	10	heavily	heavily	ADV
iajs-2631	31	11	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	31	12	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	31	13	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	31	14	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	31	15	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	31	16	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	31	17	food	food	NOUN
iajs-2631	31	18	program	program	NOUN
iajs-2631	31	19	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	31	20	contributed	contribute	VERB
iajs-2631	31	21	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	31	22	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	31	23	partial	partial	ADJ
iajs-2631	31	24	lifting	lifting	NOUN
iajs-2631	31	25	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	31	26	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	31	27	suffering	suffering	NOUN
iajs-2631	31	28	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	31	29	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	31	30	iraqi	iraqi	ADJ
iajs-2631	31	31	citizen	citizen	NOUN
iajs-2631	31	32	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	32	1	after	after	ADP
iajs-2631	32	2	2003	2003	NUM
iajs-2631	32	3	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	32	4	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	32	5	absence	absence	NOUN
iajs-2631	32	6	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	32	7	industry	industry	NOUN
iajs-2631	32	8	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	32	9	agriculture	agriculture	NOUN
iajs-2631	32	10	significantly	significantly	ADV
iajs-2631	32	11	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	32	12	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	32	13	iraqi	iraqi	ADJ
iajs-2631	32	14	economy	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	32	15	became	become	VERB
iajs-2631	32	16	dependent	dependent	ADJ
iajs-2631	32	17	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	32	18	90	90	NUM
iajs-2631	32	19	%	%	NOUN
iajs-2631	32	20	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	32	21	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	32	22	exports	export	NOUN
iajs-2631	32	23	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	33	1	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	33	2	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	33	3	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	33	4	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	33	5	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	33	6	can	can	AUX
iajs-2631	33	7	reliably	reliably	ADV
iajs-2631	33	8	predict	predict	VERB
iajs-2631	33	9	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	33	10	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	33	11	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	33	12	which	which	PRON
iajs-2631	33	13	creates	create	VERB
iajs-2631	33	14	difficulties	difficulty	NOUN
iajs-2631	33	15	when	when	SCONJ
iajs-2631	33	16	using	use	VERB
iajs-2631	33	17	classical	classical	ADJ
iajs-2631	33	18	statistical	statistical	ADJ
iajs-2631	33	19	methods	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	33	20	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	33	21	forecast	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	33	22	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	33	23	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	33	24	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	34	1	however	however	ADV
iajs-2631	34	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	34	3	predicting	predict	VERB
iajs-2631	34	4	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	34	5	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	34	6	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	34	7	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	34	8	more	more	ADV
iajs-2631	34	9	complex	complex	ADJ
iajs-2631	34	10	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	34	11	difficult	difficult	ADJ
iajs-2631	34	12	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	34	13	model	model	VERB
iajs-2631	34	14	because	because	SCONJ
iajs-2631	34	15	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	34	16	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	34	17	fluctuations	fluctuation	NOUN
iajs-2631	34	18	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	34	19	non	non	ADJ
iajs-2631	34	20	-	-	ADJ
iajs-2631	34	21	linear	linear	ADJ
iajs-2631	34	22	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	34	23	unstable	unstable	ADJ
iajs-2631	34	24	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	34	25	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	34	26	very	very	ADV
iajs-2631	34	27	volatile	volatile	ADJ
iajs-2631	34	28	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	35	1	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	35	2	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	35	3	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	35	4	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	35	5	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	35	6	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	35	7	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	35	8	has	have	AUX
iajs-2631	35	9	shown	show	VERB
iajs-2631	35	10	great	great	ADJ
iajs-2631	35	11	power	power	NOUN
iajs-2631	35	12	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	35	13	forecasting	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	35	14	nonlinear	nonlinear	ADJ
iajs-2631	35	15	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	35	16	complex	complex	ADJ
iajs-2631	35	17	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	35	18	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	35	19	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	36	1	many	many	ADJ
iajs-2631	36	2	papers	paper	NOUN
iajs-2631	36	3	have	have	AUX
iajs-2631	36	4	presented	present	VERB
iajs-2631	36	5	successful	successful	ADJ
iajs-2631	36	6	application	application	NOUN
iajs-2631	36	7	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	36	8	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	36	9	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	36	10	forecasting	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	36	11	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	36	12	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	36	13	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	36	14	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	36	15	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	36	16	example	example	NOUN
iajs-2631	36	17	yuzeli	yuzeli	INTJ
iajs-2631	36	18	et	et	PROPN
iajs-2631	36	19	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	36	20	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	37	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	37	2	10	10	NUM
iajs-2631	37	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	37	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	37	5	choi.d	choi.d	PROPN
iajs-2631	37	6	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	38	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	38	2	11	11	NUM
iajs-2631	38	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	38	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	38	5	bekiros	bekiro	NOUN
iajs-2631	38	6	et	et	NOUN
iajs-2631	38	7	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	39	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	39	2	12	12	NUM
iajs-2631	39	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	39	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	39	5	jinwen	jinwen	PROPN
iajs-2631	39	6	qiu	qiu	PROPN
iajs-2631	39	7	et	et	PROPN
iajs-2631	39	8	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	40	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	40	2	13	13	NUM
iajs-2631	40	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	40	4	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	1	2	2	X
iajs-2631	41	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	41	3	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	4	used	use	VERB
iajs-2631	41	5	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	41	6	predict	predict	VERB
iajs-2631	41	7	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	41	8	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	9	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	10	there	there	PRON
iajs-2631	41	11	are	be	VERB
iajs-2631	41	12	different	different	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	13	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	14	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	41	15	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	16	methods	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	17	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	18	they	they	PRON
iajs-2631	41	19	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	41	20	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	21	auto	auto	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	22	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	23	regressive	regressive	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	24	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	25	moving	move	VERB
iajs-2631	41	26	average	average	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	27	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	28	autoregressive	autoregressive	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	29	moving	move	VERB
iajs-2631	41	30	average	average	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	31	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	32	integrated	integrate	VERB
iajs-2631	41	33	moving	move	VERB
iajs-2631	41	34	average	average	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	35	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	36	seasonal	seasonal	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	37	autoregressive	autoregressive	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	38	integrated	integrated	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	39	moving	moving	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	40	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	41	average	average	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	42	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	43	sarima	sarima	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	44	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	45	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	46	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	47	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	41	48	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	49	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	41	50	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	41	51	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	41	52	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	42	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	42	2	14	14	NUM
iajs-2631	42	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	42	4	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	43	1	there	there	PRON
iajs-2631	43	2	is	be	VERB
iajs-2631	43	3	no	no	DET
iajs-2631	43	4	best	good	ADJ
iajs-2631	43	5	way	way	NOUN
iajs-2631	43	6	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	43	7	doing	do	VERB
iajs-2631	43	8	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	43	9	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	43	10	modeling	modeling	PROPN
iajs-2631	43	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	44	1	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	44	2	all	all	PRON
iajs-2631	44	3	depends	depend	VERB
iajs-2631	44	4	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	44	5	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	44	6	problem	problem	NOUN
iajs-2631	44	7	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	45	1	but	but	CCONJ
iajs-2631	45	2	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	45	3	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	45	4	almost	almost	ADV
iajs-2631	45	5	always	always	ADV
iajs-2631	45	6	true	true	ADJ
iajs-2631	45	7	that	that	SCONJ
iajs-2631	45	8	bringing	bring	VERB
iajs-2631	45	9	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	45	10	some	some	DET
iajs-2631	45	11	prior	prior	ADJ
iajs-2631	45	12	information	information	NOUN
iajs-2631	45	13	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	45	14	helpful	helpful	ADJ
iajs-2631	45	15	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	46	1	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	46	2	example	example	NOUN
iajs-2631	46	3	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	46	4	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	46	5	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	46	6	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	46	7	down	down	ADV
iajs-2631	46	8	now	now	ADV
iajs-2631	46	9	due	due	ADP
iajs-2631	46	10	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	46	11	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	46	12	coronavirus	coronavirus	NOUN
iajs-2631	46	13	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
iajs-2631	46	14	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	47	1	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	47	2	other	other	ADJ
iajs-2631	47	3	words	word	NOUN
iajs-2631	47	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	47	5	if	if	SCONJ
iajs-2631	47	6	your	your	PRON
iajs-2631	47	7	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	47	8	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	47	9	not	not	PART
iajs-2631	47	10	taking	take	VERB
iajs-2631	47	11	that	that	PRON
iajs-2631	47	12	into	into	ADP
iajs-2631	47	13	account	account	NOUN
iajs-2631	47	14	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	47	15	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	47	16	will	will	AUX
iajs-2631	47	17	be	be	AUX
iajs-2631	47	18	useless	useless	ADJ
iajs-2631	47	19	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	48	1	thus	thus	ADV
iajs-2631	48	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	48	3	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	48	4	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	48	5	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	48	6	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	48	7	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	48	8	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	48	9	predicting	predict	VERB
iajs-2631	48	10	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	48	11	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	48	12	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	48	13	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	48	14	basis	basis	NOUN
iajs-2631	48	15	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	48	16	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	48	17	optimal	optimal	ADJ
iajs-2631	48	18	decision	decision	NOUN
iajs-2631	48	19	making	make	VERB
iajs-2631	48	20	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	48	21	control	control	VERB
iajs-2631	48	22	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	48	23	country	country	NOUN
iajs-2631	48	24	's	's	PART
iajs-2631	48	25	economic	economic	ADJ
iajs-2631	48	26	situation	situation	NOUN
iajs-2631	48	27	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	49	1	3	3	X
iajs-2631	49	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	49	3	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	4	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	49	5	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	6	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	49	7	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	49	8	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	9	):	):	PUNCT
iajs-2631	49	10	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	11	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	49	12	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	13	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	49	14	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	15	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	49	16	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	49	17	technique	technique	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	18	used	use	VERB
iajs-2631	49	19	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	49	20	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	21	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	49	22	nowcasting	nowcasting	PROPN
iajs-2631	49	23	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	49	24	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	25	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	49	26	inferring	infer	VERB
iajs-2631	49	27	causal	causal	ADJ
iajs-2631	49	28	impact	impact	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	29	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	49	30	sequence	sequence	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	31	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	49	32	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	49	33	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	50	1	samples	sample	NOUN
iajs-2631	50	2	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	50	3	taken	take	VERB
iajs-2631	50	4	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	50	5	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	50	6	order	order	NOUN
iajs-2631	50	7	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	50	8	equal	equal	ADJ
iajs-2631	50	9	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	50	10	intervals	interval	NOUN
iajs-2631	50	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	51	1	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	51	2	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	51	3	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	51	4	analyzed	analyze	VERB
iajs-2631	51	5	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	51	6	understand	understand	VERB
iajs-2631	51	7	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	51	8	past	past	NOUN
iajs-2631	51	9	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	51	10	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	51	11	forecast	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	51	12	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	51	13	future	future	NOUN
iajs-2631	51	14	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	52	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	52	2	goal	goal	NOUN
iajs-2631	52	3	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	52	4	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	52	5	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	52	6	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	52	7	forecasting	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	52	8	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	52	9	improved	improved	ADJ
iajs-2631	52	10	computing	computing	NOUN
iajs-2631	52	11	power	power	NOUN
iajs-2631	52	12	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	52	13	have	have	AUX
iajs-2631	52	14	made	make	VERB
iajs-2631	52	15	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	52	16	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	52	17	methods	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	52	18	widely	widely	ADV
iajs-2631	52	19	applicable	applicable	ADJ
iajs-2631	52	20	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	53	1	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	2	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	53	3	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	4	has	have	VERB
iajs-2631	53	5	many	many	ADJ
iajs-2631	53	6	real	real	ADJ
iajs-2631	53	7	applications	application	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	8	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	53	9	various	various	ADJ
iajs-2631	53	10	areas	area	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	11	such	such	ADJ
iajs-2631	53	12	as	as	ADP
iajs-2631	53	13	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	14	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	53	15	economy	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	16	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	53	17	business	business	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	18	weather	weather	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	19	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	53	20	decease	decease	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	21	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	53	22	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	53	23	others	other	NOUN
iajs-2631	53	24	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	54	1	suppose	suppose	VERB
iajs-2631	54	2	𝑦𝑡	𝑦𝑡	PROPN
iajs-2631	54	3	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	54	4	observation	observation	NOUN
iajs-2631	54	5	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	54	6	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	54	7	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	54	8	t.	t.	PROPN
iajs-2631	54	9	there	there	PRON
iajs-2631	54	10	are	be	VERB
iajs-2631	54	11	two	two	NUM
iajs-2631	54	12	components	component	NOUN
iajs-2631	54	13	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	54	14	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	54	15	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	54	16	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	54	17	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	54	18	model	model	PROPN
iajs-2631	54	19	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	54	20	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	54	21	1	1	X
iajs-2631	54	22	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	54	23	observation	observation	NOUN
iajs-2631	54	24	equation	equation	NOUN
iajs-2631	54	25	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	54	26	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	54	27	2	2	X
iajs-2631	54	28	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	54	29	transition	transition	NOUN
iajs-2631	55	1	equation.as	equation.as	X
iajs-2631	55	2	𝑦𝑡	𝑦𝑡	NOUN
iajs-2631	55	3	=	=	PUNCT
iajs-2631	55	4	𝛽𝑡𝑋𝑡	𝛽𝑡𝑋𝑡	VERB
iajs-2631	55	5	𝑇	𝑇	NOUN
iajs-2631	55	6	+	+	CCONJ
iajs-2631	55	7	𝜖𝑡	𝜖𝑡	NOUN
iajs-2631	55	8	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	55	9	1	1	NUM
iajs-2631	55	10	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	55	11	where	where	SCONJ
iajs-2631	55	12	βt	βt	NOUN
iajs-2631	55	13	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	55	14	vector	vector	NOUN
iajs-2631	55	15	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	55	16	variables	variable	NOUN
iajs-2631	55	17	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	55	18	xt	xt	X
iajs-2631	55	19	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	55	20	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	55	21	vector	vector	NOUN
iajs-2631	55	22	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	55	23	parameters	parameter	NOUN
iajs-2631	55	24	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	55	25	εt	εt	PROPN
iajs-2631	55	26	~𝑁(0	~𝑁(0	NUM
iajs-2631	55	27	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	55	28	𝜎2	𝜎2	PROPN
iajs-2631	55	29	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	55	30	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	56	1	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	56	2	addition	addition	NOUN
iajs-2631	56	3	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	56	4	βt	βt	PRON
iajs-2631	56	5	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	56	6	represented	represent	VERB
iajs-2631	56	7	as	as	ADP
iajs-2631	56	8	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	56	9	following	follow	VERB
iajs-2631	56	10	transition	transition	NOUN
iajs-2631	56	11	equation	equation	NOUN
iajs-2631	56	12	𝛽𝑡+1	𝛽𝑡+1	NOUN
iajs-2631	56	13	=	=	SYM
iajs-2631	56	14	𝑇𝑡𝛽𝑡	𝑇𝑡𝛽𝑡	PROPN
iajs-2631	56	15	+	+	CCONJ
iajs-2631	56	16	𝑅𝑡𝛿𝑡	𝑅𝑡𝛿𝑡	PROPN
iajs-2631	56	17	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	56	18	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	56	19	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	56	20	102	102	NUM
iajs-2631	56	21	ibn	ibn	PROPN
iajs-2631	56	22	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	56	23	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	56	24	haitham	haitham	PROPN
iajs-2631	56	25	jour	jour	X
iajs-2631	56	26	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	57	1	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	57	2	pure	pure	ADJ
iajs-2631	57	3	&	&	CCONJ
iajs-2631	57	4	appl	appl	PROPN
iajs-2631	57	5	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	58	1	sci	sci	PROPN
iajs-2631	58	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	59	1	34	34	NUM
iajs-2631	59	2	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	59	3	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	59	4	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	59	5	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	59	6	where	where	SCONJ
iajs-2631	59	7	𝛿𝑡	𝛿𝑡	PROPN
iajs-2631	59	8	~𝑁(0	~𝑁(0	NUM
iajs-2631	59	9	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	59	10	𝜎2	𝜎2	NOUN
iajs-2631	59	11	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	59	12	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	59	13	𝑇𝑡	𝑇𝑡	PROPN
iajs-2631	59	14	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	59	15	𝑅𝑡	𝑅𝑡	PROPN
iajs-2631	59	16	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	59	17	transition	transition	NOUN
iajs-2631	59	18	matrix	matrix	NOUN
iajs-2631	59	19	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	60	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	60	2	above	above	ADJ
iajs-2631	60	3	equations	equation	NOUN
iajs-2631	60	4	describe	describe	VERB
iajs-2631	60	5	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	60	6	observed	observe	VERB
iajs-2631	60	7	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	60	8	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	60	9	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	60	10	through	through	ADP
iajs-2631	60	11	them	they	PRON
iajs-2631	60	12	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	60	13	can	can	AUX
iajs-2631	60	14	build	build	VERB
iajs-2631	60	15	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	60	16	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	60	17	models	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	60	18	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	60	19	forecast	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	60	20	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	60	21	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	60	22	short	short	ADJ
iajs-2631	60	23	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	60	24	long	long	ADJ
iajs-2631	60	25	term	term	NOUN
iajs-2631	61	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	61	2	15,16	15,16	NUM
iajs-2631	61	3	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	61	4	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	62	1	4	4	X
iajs-2631	62	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	62	3	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	4	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	62	5	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	6	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	62	7	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	8	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	62	9	forecasting	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	62	10	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	11	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	12	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	62	13	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	14	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	15	changes	change	VERB
iajs-2631	62	16	overtime	overtime	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	17	because	because	SCONJ
iajs-2631	62	18	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	62	19	crises	crisis	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	20	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	62	21	political	political	ADJ
iajs-2631	62	22	conflicts	conflict	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	23	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	62	24	supply	supply	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	25	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	62	26	demand	demand	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	27	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	62	28	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	62	29	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	63	1	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	63	2	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	63	3	reason	reason	NOUN
iajs-2631	63	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	63	5	investors	investor	NOUN
iajs-2631	63	6	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	63	7	policymakers	policymaker	NOUN
iajs-2631	63	8	need	need	VERB
iajs-2631	63	9	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	63	10	know	know	VERB
iajs-2631	63	11	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	63	12	direction	direction	NOUN
iajs-2631	63	13	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	63	14	future	future	ADJ
iajs-2631	63	15	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	63	16	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	63	17	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	64	1	this	this	PRON
iajs-2631	64	2	leads	lead	VERB
iajs-2631	64	3	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	64	4	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	64	5	need	need	NOUN
iajs-2631	64	6	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	64	7	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	64	8	use	use	NOUN
iajs-2631	64	9	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	64	10	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	64	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	65	1	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	65	2	features	feature	VERB
iajs-2631	65	3	input	input	NOUN
iajs-2631	65	4	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	65	5	backend	backend	NOUN
iajs-2631	65	6	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	65	7	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	65	8	component	component	NOUN
iajs-2631	65	9	regression	regression	NOUN
iajs-2631	65	10	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	65	11	updating	update	VERB
iajs-2631	65	12	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	65	13	timeline	timeline	NOUN
iajs-2631	65	14	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	65	15	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	66	1	hence	hence	ADV
iajs-2631	66	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	66	3	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	66	4	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	66	5	paper	paper	NOUN
iajs-2631	66	6	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	66	7	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	66	8	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	66	9	forecasting	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	66	10	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	66	11	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	66	12	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	66	13	over	over	ADP
iajs-2631	66	14	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	66	15	by	by	ADP
iajs-2631	66	16	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	66	17	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	67	1	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	67	2	use	use	VERB
iajs-2631	67	3	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	67	4	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	67	5	approach	approach	NOUN
iajs-2631	67	6	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	67	7	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	67	8	first	first	ADJ
iajs-2631	67	9	place	place	NOUN
iajs-2631	67	10	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	68	1	there	there	PRON
iajs-2631	68	2	are	be	VERB
iajs-2631	68	3	many	many	ADJ
iajs-2631	68	4	advantages	advantage	NOUN
iajs-2631	68	5	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	68	6	doing	do	VERB
iajs-2631	68	7	this	this	PRON
iajs-2631	68	8	such	such	ADJ
iajs-2631	68	9	as	as	ADP
iajs-2631	68	10	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	68	11	help	help	VERB
iajs-2631	68	12	us	we	PRON
iajs-2631	68	13	update	update	VERB
iajs-2631	68	14	our	our	PRON
iajs-2631	68	15	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	68	16	continuously	continuously	ADV
iajs-2631	68	17	by	by	ADP
iajs-2631	68	18	entering	enter	VERB
iajs-2631	68	19	prior	prior	ADJ
iajs-2631	68	20	information	information	NOUN
iajs-2631	68	21	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	68	22	estimating	estimate	VERB
iajs-2631	68	23	models	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	68	24	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	68	25	large	large	ADJ
iajs-2631	68	26	numbers	number	NOUN
iajs-2631	68	27	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	68	28	parameters	parameter	NOUN
iajs-2631	68	29	[	[	X
iajs-2631	68	30	17	17	NUM
iajs-2631	68	31	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	68	32	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	2	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	3	approach	approach	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	4	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	69	5	based	base	VERB
iajs-2631	69	6	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	69	7	bayes	bayes	PROPN
iajs-2631	69	8	'	'	PART
iajs-2631	69	9	theorem	theorem	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	10	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	11	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	69	12	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	69	13	express	express	VERB
iajs-2631	69	14	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	69	15	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	69	16	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	17	following	follow	VERB
iajs-2631	69	18	equation	equation	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	19	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	20	𝑝(𝜃|𝑦	𝑝(𝜃|𝑦	X
iajs-2631	69	21	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	22	=	=	SYM
iajs-2631	69	23	𝑝(𝑦|𝜃)𝑝(𝜃	𝑝(𝑦|𝜃)𝑝(𝜃	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	24	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	25	𝑝(𝑦	𝑝(𝑦	PROPN
iajs-2631	69	26	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	27	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	28	3	3	X
iajs-2631	69	29	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	30	here	here	ADV
iajs-2631	69	31	𝑝(𝜃|𝑦	𝑝(𝜃|𝑦	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	32	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	33	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	69	34	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	35	posterior	posterior	ADJ
iajs-2631	69	36	distribution	distribution	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	37	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	69	38	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	39	parameter	parameter	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	40	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	69	41	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	42	𝑝(𝜃	𝑝(𝜃	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	43	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	44	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	69	45	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	46	prior	prior	ADJ
iajs-2631	69	47	distribution	distribution	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	48	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	69	49	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	50	parameter	parameter	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	51	𝜃	𝜃	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	52	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	53	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	54	function	function	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	55	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	69	56	𝑓(𝑦	𝑓(𝑦	NUM
iajs-2631	69	57	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	58	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	69	59	marginal	marginal	ADJ
iajs-2631	69	60	probability	probability	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	61	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	69	62	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	63	y	y	PROPN
iajs-2631	69	64	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	65	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	69	66	marginal	marginal	ADJ
iajs-2631	69	67	probability	probability	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	68	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	69	69	computed	compute	VERB
iajs-2631	69	70	as	as	ADP
iajs-2631	69	71	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	72	𝑝(𝑦	𝑝(𝑦	PROPN
iajs-2631	69	73	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	74	=	=	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	75	∫(𝑦|𝜃)𝑝(𝜃)𝑑𝜃	∫(𝑦|𝜃)𝑝(𝜃)𝑑𝜃	X
iajs-2631	69	76	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	77	4	4	X
iajs-2631	69	78	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	79	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	80	using	use	VERB
iajs-2631	69	81	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	82	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	83	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	69	84	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	85	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	86	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	87	𝑦𝑛+𝑟	𝑦𝑛+𝑟	PROPN
iajs-2631	69	88	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	89	r	r	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	90	=	=	SYM
iajs-2631	69	91	1	1	NUM
iajs-2631	69	92	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	93	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	69	94	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	95	…	…	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	96	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	69	97	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	98	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	99	collected	collect	VERB
iajs-2631	69	100	up	up	ADP
iajs-2631	69	101	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	69	102	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	69	103	current	current	ADJ
iajs-2631	69	104	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	105	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	106	𝑦	𝑦	NOUN
iajs-2631	69	107	=	=	X
iajs-2631	69	108	{	{	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	109	𝑦𝑛	𝑦𝑛	PROPN
iajs-2631	69	110	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	111	𝑦𝑛−1	𝑦𝑛−1	PROPN
iajs-2631	69	112	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	113	…	…	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	114	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	115	𝑦1	𝑦1	PROPN
iajs-2631	69	116	}	}	PUNCT
iajs-2631	69	117	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	70	1	𝑦𝑡	𝑦𝑡	NOUN
iajs-2631	71	1	=	=	NOUN
iajs-2631	71	2	𝛽0	𝛽0	PROPN
iajs-2631	71	3	+	+	CCONJ
iajs-2631	71	4	𝛽1𝑦𝑡−1	𝛽1𝑦𝑡−1	NUM
iajs-2631	71	5	+	+	CCONJ
iajs-2631	71	6	𝛽2𝑦𝑡−2	𝛽2𝑦𝑡−2	PROPN
iajs-2631	71	7	+	+	SYM
iajs-2631	71	8	⋯	⋯	VERB
iajs-2631	71	9	+	+	CCONJ
iajs-2631	71	10	𝛽𝑡−𝑝𝑦𝑡−𝑝	𝛽𝑡−𝑝𝑦𝑡−𝑝	NOUN
iajs-2631	71	11	+	+	CCONJ
iajs-2631	71	12	휀𝑡	휀𝑡	PROPN
iajs-2631	71	13	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	71	14	5	5	NUM
iajs-2631	71	15	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	71	16	휀𝑡	휀𝑡	ADP
iajs-2631	71	17	~	~	PUNCT
iajs-2631	71	18	𝑁(0	𝑁(0	NUM
iajs-2631	71	19	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	71	20	𝜎2	𝜎2	NOUN
iajs-2631	71	21	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	71	22	forecast	forecast	NOUN
iajs-2631	71	23	equation	equation	NOUN
iajs-2631	71	24	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	71	25	defined	define	VERB
iajs-2631	71	26	as	as	ADP
iajs-2631	71	27	𝑦𝑛+𝑟	𝑦𝑛+𝑟	NOUN
iajs-2631	71	28	=	=	SYM
iajs-2631	71	29	𝛽0	𝛽0	PROPN
iajs-2631	71	30	+	+	CCONJ
iajs-2631	71	31	∑	∑	PUNCT
iajs-2631	71	32	𝛽𝑖𝑦𝑖	𝛽𝑖𝑦𝑖	ADJ
iajs-2631	71	33	𝑛	𝑛	PRON
iajs-2631	71	34	𝑖=1	𝑖=1	PROPN
iajs-2631	71	35	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	71	36	6	6	NUM
iajs-2631	71	37	)	)	SYM
iajs-2631	71	38	5	5	NUM
iajs-2631	71	39	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	72	1	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	72	2	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	72	3	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	72	4	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	72	5	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	72	6	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	72	7	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	72	8	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	72	9	taken	take	VERB
iajs-2631	72	10	from	from	ADP
iajs-2631	72	11	eia	eia	PROPN
iajs-2631	72	12	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	72	13	from	from	ADP
iajs-2631	72	14	2006	2006	NUM
iajs-2631	72	15	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	72	16	2020	2020	NUM
iajs-2631	72	17	years	year	NOUN
iajs-2631	72	18	where	where	SCONJ
iajs-2631	72	19	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	72	20	has	have	VERB
iajs-2631	72	21	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	72	22	variety	variety	NOUN
iajs-2631	72	23	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	72	24	information	information	NOUN
iajs-2631	72	25	available	available	ADJ
iajs-2631	72	26	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	73	1	this	this	PRON
iajs-2631	73	2	contains	contain	VERB
iajs-2631	73	3	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	73	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	73	5	production	production	NOUN
iajs-2631	73	6	levels	level	NOUN
iajs-2631	73	7	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	73	8	many	many	ADJ
iajs-2631	73	9	other	other	ADJ
iajs-2631	73	10	relevant	relevant	ADJ
iajs-2631	73	11	statistics	statistic	NOUN
iajs-2631	73	12	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	74	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	74	2	results	result	NOUN
iajs-2631	74	3	obtained	obtain	VERB
iajs-2631	74	4	from	from	ADP
iajs-2631	74	5	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	74	6	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	74	7	compared	compare	VERB
iajs-2631	74	8	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	74	9	that	that	PRON
iajs-2631	74	10	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	74	11	eia	eia	PROPN
iajs-2631	74	12	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	75	1	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	75	2	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	75	3	use	use	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	4	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	75	5	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	75	6	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	7	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	75	8	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	9	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	75	10	model	model	PROPN
iajs-2631	75	11	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	75	12	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	75	13	study	study	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	14	will	will	AUX
iajs-2631	75	15	focus	focus	VERB
iajs-2631	75	16	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	75	17	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	75	18	yearly	yearly	ADJ
iajs-2631	75	19	crude	crude	ADJ
iajs-2631	75	20	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	21	future	future	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	22	pricing	pricing	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	23	shown	show	VERB
iajs-2631	75	24	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	75	25	table	table	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	26	.1	.1	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	27	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	75	28	represented	represent	VERB
iajs-2631	75	29	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	75	30	figure	figure	NOUN
iajs-2631	75	31	.1	.1	NOUN
iajs-2631	76	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	76	2	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	76	3	represent	represent	VERB
iajs-2631	76	4	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	76	5	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	76	6	from	from	ADP
iajs-2631	76	7	eia	eia	PROPN
iajs-2631	76	8	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	77	1	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	77	2	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	77	3	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	77	4	us	us	PROPN
iajs-2631	77	5	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	6	information	information	PROPN
iajs-2631	77	7	administration	administration	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	8	which	which	PRON
iajs-2631	77	9	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	77	10	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	77	11	major	major	ADJ
iajs-2631	77	12	agency	agency	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	13	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	77	14	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	77	15	united	united	PROPN
iajs-2631	77	16	states	states	PROPN
iajs-2631	77	17	federal	federal	ADJ
iajs-2631	77	18	statistical	statistical	ADJ
iajs-2631	77	19	system	system	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	20	responsible	responsible	ADJ
iajs-2631	77	21	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	77	22	collecting	collecting	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	23	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	77	24	analyzing	analyzing	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	25	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	77	26	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	77	27	disseminating	disseminate	VERB
iajs-2631	77	28	information	information	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	29	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	77	30	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	31	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	77	32	promote	promote	VERB
iajs-2631	77	33	sound	sound	ADJ
iajs-2631	77	34	policies	policy	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	35	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	77	36	market	market	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	37	efficiency	efficiency	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	38	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	77	39	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	77	40	public	public	ADJ
iajs-2631	77	41	understanding	understanding	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	42	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	77	43	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	44	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	77	45	its	its	PRON
iajs-2631	77	46	interaction	interaction	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	47	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	77	48	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	77	49	economy	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	50	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	77	51	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	77	52	environment	environment	NOUN
iajs-2631	77	53	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	78	1	103	103	NUM
iajs-2631	79	1	ibn	ibn	PROPN
iajs-2631	79	2	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	79	3	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	79	4	haitham	haitham	PROPN
iajs-2631	79	5	jour	jour	X
iajs-2631	79	6	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	79	7	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	79	8	pure	pure	ADJ
iajs-2631	79	9	&	&	CCONJ
iajs-2631	79	10	appl	appl	PROPN
iajs-2631	79	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	80	1	sci	sci	PROPN
iajs-2631	80	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	81	1	34	34	NUM
iajs-2631	81	2	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	81	3	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	81	4	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	81	5	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	81	6	table	table	NOUN
iajs-2631	81	7	1	1	NUM
iajs-2631	81	8	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	81	9	crude	crude	ADJ
iajs-2631	81	10	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	81	11	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	81	12	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	81	13	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	81	14	$	$	SYM
iajs-2631	81	15	year	year	NOUN
iajs-2631	81	16	60.85	60.85	NUM
iajs-2631	81	17	2006	2006	NUM
iajs-2631	81	18	95.95	95.95	NUM
iajs-2631	81	19	2007	2007	NUM
iajs-2631	81	20	97.26	97.26	NUM
iajs-2631	81	21	2008	2008	NUM
iajs-2631	81	22	61.67	61.67	NUM
iajs-2631	81	23	2009	2009	NUM
iajs-2631	81	24	79.50	79.50	NUM
iajs-2631	81	25	2010	2010	NUM
iajs-2631	81	26	111.26	111.26	NUM
iajs-2631	81	27	2011	2011	NUM
iajs-2631	81	28	111.67	111.67	NUM
iajs-2631	81	29	2012	2012	NUM
iajs-2631	81	30	108.66	108.66	NUM
iajs-2631	81	31	2013	2013	NUM
iajs-2631	81	32	98.95	98.95	NUM
iajs-2631	81	33	2014	2014	NUM
iajs-2631	81	34	52.39	52.39	NUM
iajs-2631	81	35	2015	2015	NUM
iajs-2631	81	36	43.73	43.73	NUM
iajs-2631	81	37	2016	2016	NUM
iajs-2631	81	38	54.19	54.19	NUM
iajs-2631	81	39	2017	2017	NUM
iajs-2631	81	40	71.31	71.31	NUM
iajs-2631	81	41	2018	2018	NUM
iajs-2631	81	42	64.21	64.21	NUM
iajs-2631	81	43	2019	2019	NUM
iajs-2631	81	44	42.01	42.01	NUM
iajs-2631	81	45	2020	2020	NUM
iajs-2631	81	46	104	104	NUM
iajs-2631	81	47	ibn	ibn	PROPN
iajs-2631	81	48	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	81	49	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	81	50	haitham	haitham	PROPN
iajs-2631	81	51	jour	jour	X
iajs-2631	81	52	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	82	1	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	82	2	pure	pure	ADJ
iajs-2631	82	3	&	&	CCONJ
iajs-2631	82	4	appl	appl	PROPN
iajs-2631	82	5	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	83	1	sci	sci	PROPN
iajs-2631	83	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	84	1	34	34	NUM
iajs-2631	84	2	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	84	3	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	84	4	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	84	5	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	84	6	figure	figure	NOUN
iajs-2631	84	7	1	1	NUM
iajs-2631	84	8	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	84	9	data	datum	NOUN
iajs-2631	84	10	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	84	11	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	84	12	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	84	13	from	from	ADP
iajs-2631	84	14	2006	2006	NUM
iajs-2631	84	15	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	84	16	2020	2020	NUM
iajs-2631	84	17	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	85	1	6	6	NUM
iajs-2631	85	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	85	3	modeling	model	VERB
iajs-2631	85	4	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	85	5	structural	structural	NOUN
iajs-2631	85	6	has	have	VERB
iajs-2631	85	7	an	an	DET
iajs-2631	85	8	advantage	advantage	NOUN
iajs-2631	85	9	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	85	10	apply	apply	VERB
iajs-2631	85	11	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	85	12	short	short	ADJ
iajs-2631	85	13	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	85	14	long	long	ADJ
iajs-2631	85	15	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	85	16	term	term	NOUN
iajs-2631	85	17	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	85	18	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	86	1	however	however	ADV
iajs-2631	86	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	86	3	most	most	ADJ
iajs-2631	86	4	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	86	5	models	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	86	6	involve	involve	VERB
iajs-2631	86	7	complicated	complicated	ADJ
iajs-2631	86	8	mathematics	mathematic	NOUN
iajs-2631	86	9	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	86	10	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	86	11	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	86	12	almost	almost	ADV
iajs-2631	86	13	impossible	impossible	ADJ
iajs-2631	86	14	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	86	15	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	86	16	statistician	statistician	NOUN
iajs-2631	86	17	who	who	PRON
iajs-2631	86	18	does	do	AUX
iajs-2631	86	19	not	not	PART
iajs-2631	86	20	have	have	VERB
iajs-2631	86	21	strong	strong	ADJ
iajs-2631	86	22	mathematical	mathematical	ADJ
iajs-2631	86	23	background	background	NOUN
iajs-2631	86	24	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	86	25	conduct	conduct	VERB
iajs-2631	86	26	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	86	27	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	87	1	meanwhile	meanwhile	ADV
iajs-2631	87	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	87	3	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	87	4	allows	allow	VERB
iajs-2631	87	5	us	we	PRON
iajs-2631	87	6	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	87	7	conduct	conduct	VERB
iajs-2631	87	8	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	87	9	study	study	NOUN
iajs-2631	87	10	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	87	11	some	some	DET
iajs-2631	87	12	lines	line	NOUN
iajs-2631	87	13	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	87	14	r	r	NOUN
iajs-2631	87	15	code	code	NOUN
iajs-2631	87	16	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	88	1	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	88	2	run	run	VERB
iajs-2631	88	3	simulations	simulation	NOUN
iajs-2631	88	4	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	88	5	mcmc	mcmc	PROPN
iajs-2631	88	6	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	88	7	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	88	8	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	88	9	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	88	10	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	88	11	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	88	12	r	r	NOUN
iajs-2631	88	13	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	88	14	there	there	PRON
iajs-2631	88	15	is	be	VERB
iajs-2631	88	16	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	88	17	package	package	NOUN
iajs-2631	88	18	called	call	VERB
iajs-2631	88	19	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	88	20	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	88	21	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	88	22	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	88	23	package	package	NOUN
iajs-2631	88	24	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	89	1	automatically	automatically	ADV
iajs-2631	89	2	performs	perform	VERB
iajs-2631	89	3	sample	sample	NOUN
iajs-2631	89	4	generating	generate	VERB
iajs-2631	89	5	operations	operation	NOUN
iajs-2631	89	6	etc	etc	X
iajs-2631	89	7	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	90	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	90	2	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	3	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	90	4	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	90	5	function	function	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	6	specific	specific	ADJ
iajs-2631	90	7	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	90	8	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	90	9	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	10	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	11	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	12	which	which	PRON
iajs-2631	90	13	includes	include	VERB
iajs-2631	90	14	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	90	15	mcmc	mcmc	PROPN
iajs-2631	90	16	simulation	simulation	PROPN
iajs-2631	90	17	method	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	18	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	90	19	generating	generate	VERB
iajs-2631	90	20	samples	sample	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	21	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	90	22	calculating	calculate	VERB
iajs-2631	90	23	parameters	parameter	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	24	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	90	25	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	90	26	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	27	regression	regression	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	28	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	90	29	[	[	X
iajs-2631	90	30	18	18	NUM
iajs-2631	90	31	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	90	32	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	91	1	7	7	X
iajs-2631	91	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	91	3	forecasting	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	91	4	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	91	5	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	91	6	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	91	7	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	91	8	section	section	NOUN
iajs-2631	91	9	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	91	10	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	91	11	present	present	VERB
iajs-2631	91	12	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	91	13	expected	expect	VERB
iajs-2631	91	14	results	result	NOUN
iajs-2631	91	15	obtained	obtain	VERB
iajs-2631	91	16	by	by	ADP
iajs-2631	91	17	applying	apply	VERB
iajs-2631	91	18	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	91	19	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	91	20	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	91	21	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	91	22	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	91	23	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	91	24	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	92	1	predicting	predict	VERB
iajs-2631	92	2	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	92	3	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	4	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	92	5	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	6	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	92	7	very	very	ADV
iajs-2631	92	8	difficult	difficult	ADJ
iajs-2631	92	9	due	due	ADJ
iajs-2631	92	10	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	92	11	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	92	12	variables	variable	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	13	that	that	PRON
iajs-2631	92	14	change	change	VERB
iajs-2631	92	15	or	or	CCONJ
iajs-2631	92	16	occur	occur	VERB
iajs-2631	92	17	overtime	overtime	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	18	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	92	19	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	92	20	example	example	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	21	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	92	22	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	23	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	92	24	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	92	25	corona	corona	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	26	virus	virus	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	27	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	92	28	political	political	ADJ
iajs-2631	92	29	conflicts	conflict	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	30	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	92	31	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	92	32	thus	thus	ADV
iajs-2631	92	33	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	92	34	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	35	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	92	36	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	37	changes	change	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	38	within	within	ADP
iajs-2631	92	39	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	92	40	short	short	ADJ
iajs-2631	92	41	period	period	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	42	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	92	43	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	92	44	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	93	1	meaning	mean	VERB
iajs-2631	93	2	demand	demand	NOUN
iajs-2631	93	3	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	93	4	supply	supply	NOUN
iajs-2631	93	5	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	93	6	not	not	PART
iajs-2631	93	7	static	static	ADJ
iajs-2631	93	8	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	94	1	this	this	PRON
iajs-2631	94	2	means	mean	VERB
iajs-2631	94	3	that	that	SCONJ
iajs-2631	94	4	there	there	PRON
iajs-2631	94	5	is	be	VERB
iajs-2631	94	6	no	no	DET
iajs-2631	94	7	exact	exact	ADJ
iajs-2631	94	8	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	94	9	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	94	10	this	this	PRON
iajs-2631	94	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	95	1	all	all	DET
iajs-2631	95	2	models	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	95	3	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	95	4	probabilistic	probabilistic	ADJ
iajs-2631	95	5	models	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	95	6	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	96	1	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	96	2	carry	carry	VERB
iajs-2631	96	3	out	out	ADP
iajs-2631	96	4	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	96	5	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	96	6	modeling	modeling	NOUN
iajs-2631	96	7	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	96	8	forecasting	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	96	9	15	15	NUM
iajs-2631	96	10	years	year	NOUN
iajs-2631	96	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	97	1	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	97	2	predict	predict	VERB
iajs-2631	97	3	future	future	ADJ
iajs-2631	97	4	values	value	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	5	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	97	6	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	97	7	years	year	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	8	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	97	9	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	97	10	2035	2035	NUM
iajs-2631	97	11	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	97	12	use	use	VERB
iajs-2631	97	13	forecast	forecast	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	14	package	package	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	15	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	97	16	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	97	17	forecast	forecast	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	18	code	code	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	19	based	base	VERB
iajs-2631	97	20	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	97	21	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	97	22	coding	coding	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	23	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	97	24	rprogramming	rprogramme	VERB
iajs-2631	97	25	such	such	ADJ
iajs-2631	97	26	that	that	SCONJ
iajs-2631	97	27	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	97	28	value	value	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	29	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	97	30	64.02)we	64.02)we	NUM
iajs-2631	97	31	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	97	32	getting	get	VERB
iajs-2631	97	33	from	from	ADP
iajs-2631	97	34	forecast	forecast	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	35	package	package	NOUN
iajs-2631	97	36	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	98	1	table	table	NOUN
iajs-2631	98	2	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	98	3	shows	show	VERB
iajs-2631	98	4	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	98	5	prediction	prediction	NOUN
iajs-2631	98	6	results	result	NOUN
iajs-2631	98	7	by	by	ADP
iajs-2631	98	8	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	98	9	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	99	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	99	2	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	99	3	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	99	4	was	be	AUX
iajs-2631	99	5	evaluated	evaluate	VERB
iajs-2631	99	6	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	99	7	increase	increase	VERB
iajs-2631	99	8	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	99	9	119.88	119.88	NUM
iajs-2631	99	10	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	99	11	2035	2035	NUM
iajs-2631	99	12	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	100	1	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	100	2	2035year	2035year	NUM
iajs-2631	100	3	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	100	4	eia	eia	PROPN
iajs-2631	100	5	has	have	AUX
iajs-2631	100	6	estimated	estimate	VERB
iajs-2631	100	7	that	that	SCONJ
iajs-2631	100	8	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	100	9	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	100	10	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	100	11	will	will	AUX
iajs-2631	100	12	reach	reach	VERB
iajs-2631	100	13	120.47	120.47	NUM
iajs-2631	100	14	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	101	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	101	2	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	101	3	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	101	4	value	value	VERB
iajs-2631	101	5	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	101	6	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	101	7	paper	paper	NOUN
iajs-2631	101	8	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	101	9	lower	low	ADJ
iajs-2631	101	10	than	than	ADP
iajs-2631	101	11	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	101	12	eia	eia	NOUN
iajs-2631	101	13	because	because	SCONJ
iajs-2631	101	14	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	101	15	use	use	VERB
iajs-2631	101	16	moderate	moderate	ADJ
iajs-2631	101	17	assumptions	assumption	NOUN
iajs-2631	101	18	regarding	regard	VERB
iajs-2631	101	19	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	101	20	future	future	ADJ
iajs-2631	101	21	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	101	22	market	market	NOUN
iajs-2631	101	23	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	102	1	105	105	NUM
iajs-2631	102	2	ibn	ibn	PROPN
iajs-2631	102	3	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	102	4	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	102	5	haitham	haitham	PROPN
iajs-2631	102	6	jour	jour	X
iajs-2631	102	7	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	102	8	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	102	9	pure	pure	ADJ
iajs-2631	102	10	&	&	CCONJ
iajs-2631	102	11	appl	appl	PROPN
iajs-2631	102	12	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	103	1	sci	sci	PROPN
iajs-2631	103	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	104	1	34	34	NUM
iajs-2631	104	2	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	104	3	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	104	4	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	104	5	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	104	6	table	table	NOUN
iajs-2631	104	7	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	104	8	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	105	1	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	105	2	prediction	prediction	NOUN
iajs-2631	105	3	results(by	results(by	NOUN
iajs-2631	105	4	authors	author	NOUN
iajs-2631	105	5	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	105	6	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	106	1	eia	eia	VERB
iajs-2631	106	2	$	$	SYM
iajs-2631	106	3	[	[	NOUN
iajs-2631	106	4	19	19	NUM
iajs-2631	106	5	]	]	PUNCT
iajs-2631	106	6	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	106	7	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	106	8	$	$	SYM
iajs-2631	106	9	year	year	NOUN
iajs-2631	106	10	64.69	64.69	NUM
iajs-2631	106	11	64.02	64.02	NUM
iajs-2631	106	12	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	106	13	68.86	68.86	NUM
iajs-2631	106	14	68.53	68.53	NUM
iajs-2631	106	15	2022	2022	NUM
iajs-2631	106	16	72.01	72.01	NUM
iajs-2631	106	17	71.86	71.86	NUM
iajs-2631	106	18	2023	2023	NUM
iajs-2631	106	19	75.53	75.53	NUM
iajs-2631	106	20	74.43	74.43	NUM
iajs-2631	106	21	2024	2024	NUM
iajs-2631	106	22	79.24	79.24	NUM
iajs-2631	106	23	79.08	79.08	NUM
iajs-2631	106	24	2025	2025	NUM
iajs-2631	106	25	83.03	83.03	NUM
iajs-2631	106	26	79.81	79.81	NUM
iajs-2631	106	27	2026	2026	NUM
iajs-2631	106	28	86.48	86.48	NUM
iajs-2631	106	29	86.38	86.38	NUM
iajs-2631	106	30	2027	2027	NUM
iajs-2631	106	31	90.51	90.51	NUM
iajs-2631	106	32	88.58	88.58	NUM
iajs-2631	106	33	2028	2028	NUM
iajs-2631	106	34	94.65	94.65	NUM
iajs-2631	106	35	93.19	93.19	NUM
iajs-2631	106	36	2029	2029	NUM
iajs-2631	106	37	98.29	98.29	NUM
iajs-2631	106	38	95.78	95.78	NUM
iajs-2631	106	39	2030	2030	NUM
iajs-2631	106	40	102.56	102.56	NUM
iajs-2631	106	41	102.02	102.02	NUM
iajs-2631	106	42	2031	2031	NUM
iajs-2631	106	43	106.52	106.52	NUM
iajs-2631	106	44	103.65	103.65	NUM
iajs-2631	106	45	2032	2032	NUM
iajs-2631	106	46	111.48	111.48	NUM
iajs-2631	106	47	100.87	100.87	NUM
iajs-2631	106	48	2033	2033	NUM
iajs-2631	106	49	115.84	115.84	NUM
iajs-2631	106	50	113.18	113.18	NUM
iajs-2631	106	51	2034	2034	NUM
iajs-2631	106	52	120.47	120.47	NUM
iajs-2631	106	53	119.88	119.88	NUM
iajs-2631	106	54	2035	2035	NUM
iajs-2631	106	55	106	106	NUM
iajs-2631	106	56	ibn	ibn	PROPN
iajs-2631	106	57	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	106	58	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	106	59	haitham	haitham	PROPN
iajs-2631	106	60	jour	jour	X
iajs-2631	106	61	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	107	1	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	107	2	pure	pure	ADJ
iajs-2631	107	3	&	&	CCONJ
iajs-2631	107	4	appl	appl	PROPN
iajs-2631	107	5	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	108	1	sci	sci	PROPN
iajs-2631	108	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	109	1	34	34	NUM
iajs-2631	109	2	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	109	3	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	109	4	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	109	5	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	109	6	figure	figure	NOUN
iajs-2631	109	7	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	109	8	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	109	9	forecasted	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	109	10	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	109	11	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	109	12	from	from	ADP
iajs-2631	109	13	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	109	14	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	109	15	2035	2035	NUM
iajs-2631	109	16	8	8	NUM
iajs-2631	109	17	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	110	1	conclusion	conclusion	NOUN
iajs-2631	110	2	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	110	3	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	110	4	study	study	NOUN
iajs-2631	110	5	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	110	6	have	have	AUX
iajs-2631	110	7	provided	provide	VERB
iajs-2631	110	8	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	110	9	method	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	110	10	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	110	11	build	build	VERB
iajs-2631	110	12	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	110	13	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	110	14	forecast	forecast	VERB
iajs-2631	110	15	long	long	ADJ
iajs-2631	110	16	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	110	17	term	term	NOUN
iajs-2631	110	18	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	110	19	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	110	20	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	111	1	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	111	2	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	111	3	study	study	NOUN
iajs-2631	111	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	111	5	we	we	PRON
iajs-2631	111	6	applied	apply	VERB
iajs-2631	111	7	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	111	8	using	use	VERB
iajs-2631	111	9	r	r	NOUN
iajs-2631	111	10	program	program	NOUN
iajs-2631	111	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	112	1	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	112	2	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	112	3	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	112	4	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	112	5	suitable	suitable	ADJ
iajs-2631	112	6	method	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	112	7	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	113	1	since	since	SCONJ
iajs-2631	113	2	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	113	3	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	113	4	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	113	5	change	change	NOUN
iajs-2631	113	6	constantly	constantly	ADV
iajs-2631	113	7	it	it	PRON
iajs-2631	113	8	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	113	9	useful	useful	ADJ
iajs-2631	113	10	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	113	11	incorporate	incorporate	VERB
iajs-2631	113	12	some	some	DET
iajs-2631	113	13	prior	prior	ADJ
iajs-2631	113	14	information	information	NOUN
iajs-2631	113	15	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	113	16	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	113	17	model	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	113	18	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	113	19	example	example	NOUN
iajs-2631	113	20	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	113	21	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	113	22	coronavirus	coronavirus	NOUN
iajs-2631	113	23	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
iajs-2631	113	24	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	114	1	this	this	DET
iajs-2631	114	2	study	study	NOUN
iajs-2631	114	3	predicts	predict	VERB
iajs-2631	114	4	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	114	5	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	114	6	through	through	ADP
iajs-2631	114	7	2035	2035	NUM
iajs-2631	114	8	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	114	9	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	114	10	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	114	11	is	be	AUX
iajs-2631	114	12	expected	expect	VERB
iajs-2631	114	13	to	to	PART
iajs-2631	114	14	rise	rise	VERB
iajs-2631	114	15	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	114	16	$	$	SYM
iajs-2631	114	17	119.88	119.88	NUM
iajs-2631	114	18	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	114	19	2035	2035	NUM
iajs-2631	114	20	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	114	21	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	114	22	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	114	23	eia	eia	NOUN
iajs-2631	114	24	predicts	predict	VERB
iajs-2631	114	25	that	that	SCONJ
iajs-2631	114	26	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	114	27	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	114	28	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	114	29	2035	2035	NUM
iajs-2631	114	30	will	will	AUX
iajs-2631	114	31	reach	reach	VERB
iajs-2631	114	32	120.47$.	120.47$.	NUM
iajs-2631	114	33	references	reference	NOUN
iajs-2631	114	34	1	1	NUM
iajs-2631	114	35	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	114	36	morana	morana	PROPN
iajs-2631	114	37	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	114	38	k.	k.	PROPN
iajs-2631	115	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	115	2	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	115	3	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	115	4	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	115	5	macroeconomy	macroeconomy	NOUN
iajs-2631	115	6	relationship	relationship	NOUN
iajs-2631	115	7	since	since	SCONJ
iajs-2631	115	8	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	115	9	mid-1980s	mid-1980	NOUN
iajs-2631	115	10	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	115	11	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	115	12	global	global	ADJ
iajs-2631	115	13	perspective	perspective	NOUN
iajs-2631	115	14	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	116	1	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	116	2	j.	j.	PROPN
iajs-2631	116	3	2013	2013	NUM
iajs-2631	116	4	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	117	1	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	117	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	117	3	barsky	barsky	PROPN
iajs-2631	117	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	117	5	r.b	r.b	PROPN
iajs-2631	117	6	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	117	7	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	117	8	kilian	kilian	PROPN
iajs-2631	117	9	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	117	10	l.	l.	PROPN
iajs-2631	117	11	oil	oil	PROPN
iajs-2631	117	12	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	117	13	macroeconomy	macroeconomy	NOUN
iajs-2631	117	14	since	since	SCONJ
iajs-2631	117	15	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	117	16	1970s	1970s	NUM
iajs-2631	117	17	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	118	1	j.	j.	PROPN
iajs-2631	118	2	econ	econ	PROPN
iajs-2631	118	3	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	118	4	perspect	perspect	PROPN
iajs-2631	118	5	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	119	1	2004	2004	NUM
iajs-2631	119	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	120	1	3	3	X
iajs-2631	120	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	120	3	kilian	kilian	PROPN
iajs-2631	120	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	120	5	l.	l.	PROPN
iajs-2631	120	6	not	not	PART
iajs-2631	120	7	all	all	DET
iajs-2631	120	8	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	120	9	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	120	10	shocks	shock	NOUN
iajs-2631	120	11	are	be	AUX
iajs-2631	120	12	alike	alike	ADV
iajs-2631	120	13	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	120	14	disentangling	disentangle	VERB
iajs-2631	120	15	demand	demand	NOUN
iajs-2631	120	16	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	120	17	supply	supply	NOUN
iajs-2631	120	18	shocks	shock	NOUN
iajs-2631	120	19	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	120	20	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	120	21	crude	crude	ADJ
iajs-2631	120	22	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	120	23	market	market	NOUN
iajs-2631	120	24	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	121	1	am	be	AUX
iajs-2631	121	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	122	1	econ	econ	PROPN
iajs-2631	122	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	123	1	rev	rev	PROPN
iajs-2631	123	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	123	3	2009	2009	NUM
iajs-2631	123	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	123	5	99	99	NUM
iajs-2631	123	6	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	123	7	1053–1069	1053–1069	NUM
iajs-2631	123	8	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	124	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	124	2	crossref	crossref	X
iajs-2631	124	3	]	]	X
iajs-2631	124	4	4	4	NUM
iajs-2631	124	5	.	.	X
iajs-2631	124	6	segal	segal	PROPN
iajs-2631	124	7	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	124	8	p.	p.	NOUN
iajs-2631	124	9	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	124	10	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	124	11	shocks	shock	NOUN
iajs-2631	124	12	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	124	13	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	124	14	macroeconomy	macroeconomy	NOUN
iajs-2631	124	15	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	125	1	oxf	oxf	PROPN
iajs-2631	125	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	126	1	rev	rev	PROPN
iajs-2631	126	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	126	3	econ	econ	PROPN
iajs-2631	126	4	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	127	1	policy	policy	NOUN
iajs-2631	127	2	2011	2011	NUM
iajs-2631	127	3	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	128	1	5	5	NUM
iajs-2631	128	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	128	3	timilsina	timilsina	PROPN
iajs-2631	128	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	128	5	g.r	g.r	PROPN
iajs-2631	128	6	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	129	1	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	129	2	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	129	3	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	129	4	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	129	5	global	global	ADJ
iajs-2631	129	6	economy	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	129	7	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	129	8	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	129	9	general	general	ADJ
iajs-2631	129	10	equilibrium	equilibrium	NOUN
iajs-2631	129	11	analysis	analysis	NOUN
iajs-2631	129	12	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	130	1	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	130	2	econ	econ	NOUN
iajs-2631	130	3	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	131	1	2015	2015	NUM
iajs-2631	131	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	132	1	6	6	X
iajs-2631	132	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	132	3	archanskaia	archanskaia	PROPN
iajs-2631	132	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	132	5	e.	e.	PROPN
iajs-2631	132	6	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	132	7	creel	creel	PROPN
iajs-2631	132	8	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	132	9	j.	j.	PROPN
iajs-2631	132	10	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	132	11	hubert	hubert	PROPN
iajs-2631	132	12	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	132	13	p.	p.	NOUN
iajs-2631	132	14	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	132	15	nature	nature	NOUN
iajs-2631	132	16	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	132	17	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	132	18	shocks	shock	NOUN
iajs-2631	132	19	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	132	20	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	132	21	global	global	ADJ
iajs-2631	132	22	economy	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	132	23	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	133	1	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	133	2	policy	policy	NOUN
iajs-2631	133	3	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	133	4	2012	2012	NUM
iajs-2631	133	5	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	134	1	7	7	X
iajs-2631	134	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	134	3	peersman	peersman	NOUN
iajs-2631	134	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	134	5	g.	g.	PROPN
iajs-2631	134	6	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	134	7	van	van	PROPN
iajs-2631	134	8	robays	robay	NOUN
iajs-2631	134	9	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	134	10	i.	i.	PROPN
iajs-2631	134	11	cross	cross	PROPN
iajs-2631	134	12	-	-	ADJ
iajs-2631	134	13	country	country	ADJ
iajs-2631	134	14	differences	difference	NOUN
iajs-2631	134	15	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	134	16	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	134	17	effects	effect	NOUN
iajs-2631	134	18	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	134	19	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	134	20	shocks	shock	NOUN
iajs-2631	134	21	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	135	1	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	135	2	econ	econ	PROPN
iajs-2631	135	3	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	136	1	2012	2012	NUM
iajs-2631	136	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	136	3	34	34	NUM
iajs-2631	136	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	136	5	1532–1547	1532–1547	NUM
iajs-2631	136	6	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	1	[	[	X
iajs-2631	137	2	crossref	crossref	X
iajs-2631	137	3	]	]	X
iajs-2631	137	4	8	8	NUM
iajs-2631	137	5	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	6	w.	w.	PROPN
iajs-2631	137	7	xie	xie	PROPN
iajs-2631	137	8	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	9	l.	l.	PROPN
iajs-2631	137	10	yu	yu	PROPN
iajs-2631	137	11	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	12	s.	s.	PROPN
iajs-2631	137	13	xu	xu	PROPN
iajs-2631	137	14	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	15	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	137	16	s.	s.	PROPN
iajs-2631	137	17	wang	wang	PROPN
iajs-2631	137	18	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	19	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	137	20	new	new	ADJ
iajs-2631	137	21	method	method	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	22	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	137	23	crude	crude	ADJ
iajs-2631	137	24	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	25	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	26	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	27	based	base	VERB
iajs-2631	137	28	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	137	29	support	support	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	30	vector	vector	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	31	machines	machine	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	32	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	33	in	in	ADP
iajs-2631	137	34	proceedings	proceeding	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	35	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	137	36	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	137	37	international	international	ADJ
iajs-2631	137	38	conference	conference	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	39	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	137	40	computational	computational	ADJ
iajs-2631	137	41	science	science	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	42	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	43	part	part	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	44	iv).2006	iv).2006	NOUN
iajs-2631	137	45	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	46	444–451	444–451	NUM
iajs-2631	137	47	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	137	48	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	138	1	9	9	X
iajs-2631	138	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	138	3	crude	crude	ADJ
iajs-2631	138	4	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	138	5	price	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	138	6	analysis	analysis	NOUN
iajs-2631	138	7	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	138	8	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
iajs-2631	138	9	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	138	10	a	a	DET
iajs-2631	138	11	perspective	perspective	NOUN
iajs-2631	138	12	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	138	13	new	new	ADJ
iajs-2631	138	14	triangle	triangle	NOUN
iajs-2631	138	15	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	138	16	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	138	17	economics	economic	NOUN
iajs-2631	138	18	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	139	1	2020	2020	NUM
iajs-2631	139	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	139	3	87	87	NUM
iajs-2631	139	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	139	5	104721	104721	NUM
iajs-2631	139	6	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	140	1	107	107	NUM
iajs-2631	140	2	ibn	ibn	PROPN
iajs-2631	140	3	al	al	PROPN
iajs-2631	140	4	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	140	5	haitham	haitham	PROPN
iajs-2631	140	6	jour	jour	X
iajs-2631	140	7	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	140	8	for	for	ADP
iajs-2631	140	9	pure	pure	ADJ
iajs-2631	140	10	&	&	CCONJ
iajs-2631	140	11	appl	appl	PROPN
iajs-2631	140	12	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	141	1	sci	sci	PROPN
iajs-2631	141	2	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	142	1	34	34	NUM
iajs-2631	142	2	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	142	3	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	142	4	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	142	5	2021	2021	NUM
iajs-2631	142	6	10	10	NUM
iajs-2631	142	7	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	143	1	choi	choi	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	143	3	d.	d.	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	4	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	143	5	effect	effect	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	6	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	143	7	shale	shale	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	8	gas	gas	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	9	revolution	revolution	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	10	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	143	11	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	12	industry	industry	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	13	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	143	14	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	143	15	institute	institute	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	16	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	143	17	energy	energy	PROPN
iajs-2631	143	18	economics	economic	NOUN
iajs-2631	143	19	japan	japan	PROPN
iajs-2631	143	20	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	143	21	tokyo	tokyo	PROPN
iajs-2631	143	22	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	143	23	japan	japan	PROPN
iajs-2631	143	24	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	143	25	2013	2013	NUM
iajs-2631	143	26	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	144	1	11	11	NUM
iajs-2631	144	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	145	1	bekiros	bekiro	NOUN
iajs-2631	145	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	145	3	s.d	s.d	PROPN
iajs-2631	145	4	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	145	5	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	145	6	diks	dik	NOUN
iajs-2631	145	7	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	145	8	c.g.h	c.g.h	NOUN
iajs-2631	145	9	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	146	1	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	146	2	relationship	relationship	NOUN
iajs-2631	146	3	between	between	ADP
iajs-2631	146	4	crude	crude	ADJ
iajs-2631	146	5	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	146	6	spot	spot	NOUN
iajs-2631	146	7	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	146	8	futures	future	NOUN
iajs-2631	146	9	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	146	10	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	146	11	cointegration	cointegration	NOUN
iajs-2631	146	12	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	146	13	linear	linear	ADJ
iajs-2631	146	14	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	146	15	nonlinear	nonlinear	ADJ
iajs-2631	146	16	causality	causality	NOUN
iajs-2631	146	17	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	147	1	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	147	2	econ	econ	PROPN
iajs-2631	147	3	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	147	4	2008	2008	NUM
iajs-2631	147	5	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	147	6	30	30	NUM
iajs-2631	147	7	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	147	8	2673	2673	NUM
iajs-2631	147	9	–	–	PUNCT
iajs-2631	147	10	2685	2685	NUM
iajs-2631	147	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	148	1	12	12	NUM
iajs-2631	148	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	149	1	jinwen	jinwen	PROPN
iajs-2631	149	2	qiu	qiu	PROPN
iajs-2631	149	3	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	149	4	s.	s.	PROPN
iajs-2631	149	5	rao	rao	PROPN
iajs-2631	149	6	jammalamadaka	jammalamadaka	PROPN
iajs-2631	149	7	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	149	8	ning	ning	PROPN
iajs-2631	149	9	ning	ning	PROPN
iajs-2631	149	10	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	150	1	multivariate	multivariate	NOUN
iajs-2631	150	2	bayesian	bayesian	PROPN
iajs-2631	150	3	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	150	4	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	150	5	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	150	6	model	model	PROPN
iajs-2631	150	7	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	150	8	2018	2018	NUM
iajs-2631	150	9	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	151	1	13	13	NUM
iajs-2631	151	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	151	3	r.	r.	PROPN
iajs-2631	151	4	shumway	shumway	PROPN
iajs-2631	151	5	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	151	6	d.	d.	PROPN
iajs-2631	151	7	stoffer	stoffer	PROPN
iajs-2631	151	8	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	151	9	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	151	10	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	151	11	analysis	analysis	NOUN
iajs-2631	151	12	and	and	CCONJ
iajs-2631	151	13	its	its	PRON
iajs-2631	151	14	applications	application	NOUN
iajs-2631	151	15	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	151	16	springer	springer	NOUN
iajs-2631	151	17	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	151	18	4th	4th	ADJ
iajs-2631	151	19	edition	edition	NOUN
iajs-2631	151	20	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	151	21	2017	2017	NUM
iajs-2631	151	22	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	152	1	14	14	NUM
iajs-2631	152	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	152	3	schmitt	schmitt	PROPN
iajs-2631	152	4	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	152	5	e.	e.	PROPN
iajs-2631	152	6	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	152	7	tull	tull	PROPN
iajs-2631	152	8	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	152	9	c.	c.	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	10	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	152	11	atwater	atwater	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	12	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	152	13	p.	p.	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	14	extending	extend	VERB
iajs-2631	152	15	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	16	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	152	17	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	18	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	152	19	series	series	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	20	estimates	estimate	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	21	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	152	22	causal	causal	ADJ
iajs-2631	152	23	impact	impact	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	24	to	to	ADP
iajs-2631	152	25	many	many	ADJ
iajs-2631	152	26	-	-	PUNCT
iajs-2631	152	27	household	household	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	28	conservation	conservation	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	29	initiatives	initiative	NOUN
iajs-2631	152	30	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	153	1	ann	ann	PROPN
iajs-2631	153	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	153	3	appl	appl	PROPN
iajs-2631	153	4	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	154	1	stat	stat	PROPN
iajs-2631	154	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	155	1	2018	2018	NUM
iajs-2631	155	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	156	1	15	15	NUM
iajs-2631	156	2	.	.	X
iajs-2631	157	1	scott	scott	PROPN
iajs-2631	157	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	157	3	s.l	s.l	PROPN
iajs-2631	157	4	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	157	5	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	157	6	varian	varian	PROPN
iajs-2631	157	7	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	157	8	h.r	h.r	PROPN
iajs-2631	157	9	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	157	10	predicting	predict	VERB
iajs-2631	157	11	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	157	12	present	present	NOUN
iajs-2631	157	13	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	157	14	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	157	15	structural	structural	ADJ
iajs-2631	157	16	time	time	NOUN
iajs-2631	157	17	series	series	PROPN
iajs-2631	157	18	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	158	1	2013	2013	NUM
iajs-2631	158	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	159	1	16	16	NUM
iajs-2631	159	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	160	1	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	160	2	information	information	PROPN
iajs-2631	160	3	administration	administration	PROPN
iajs-2631	160	4	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	160	5	eia	eia	PROPN
iajs-2631	160	6	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	160	7	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	161	1	annual	annual	ADJ
iajs-2631	161	2	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	161	3	outlook	outlook	NOUN
iajs-2631	161	4	2020	2020	NUM
iajs-2631	161	5	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	161	6	u.s	u.s	PROPN
iajs-2631	161	7	.	.	PROPN
iajs-2631	161	8	department	department	PROPN
iajs-2631	161	9	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	161	10	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	161	11	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	162	1	17	17	NUM
iajs-2631	162	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	163	1	koduvely	koduvely	ADV
iajs-2631	163	2	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	163	3	h.m	h.m	PROPN
iajs-2631	163	4	.	.	NOUN
iajs-2631	163	5	learning	learn	VERB
iajs-2631	163	6	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
iajs-2631	163	7	models	model	NOUN
iajs-2631	163	8	with	with	ADP
iajs-2631	163	9	r	r	NOUN
iajs-2631	163	10	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	163	11	packt	packt	NOUN
iajs-2631	163	12	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	163	13	birmingham	birmingham	PROPN
iajs-2631	163	14	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	163	15	uk	uk	PROPN
iajs-2631	163	16	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	163	17	2015	2015	NUM
iajs-2631	163	18	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	164	1	18	18	NUM
iajs-2631	164	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	164	3	steven	steven	PROPN
iajs-2631	164	4	l.	l.	PROPN
iajs-2631	164	5	scott	scott	PROPN
iajs-2631	164	6	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	165	1	package	package	NOUN
iajs-2631	165	2	‘	'	PUNCT
iajs-2631	165	3	bsts	bst	NOUN
iajs-2631	165	4	’	'	PUNCT
iajs-2631	165	5	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	165	6	may	may	AUX
iajs-2631	165	7	2	2	NUM
iajs-2631	165	8	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	165	9	2020	2020	NUM
iajs-2631	165	10	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	166	1	19	19	NUM
iajs-2631	166	2	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	166	3	international	international	ADJ
iajs-2631	166	4	energy	energy	NOUN
iajs-2631	166	5	agency	agency	PROPN
iajs-2631	166	6	(	(	PUNCT
iajs-2631	166	7	iea	iea	NOUN
iajs-2631	166	8	)	)	PUNCT
iajs-2631	166	9	.	.	PUNCT
iajs-2631	167	1	analysis	analysis	NOUN
iajs-2631	167	2	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	167	3	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	167	4	impact	impact	NOUN
iajs-2631	167	5	of	of	ADP
iajs-2631	167	6	high	high	ADJ
iajs-2631	167	7	oil	oil	NOUN
iajs-2631	167	8	prices	price	NOUN
iajs-2631	167	9	on	on	ADP
iajs-2631	167	10	the	the	DET
iajs-2631	167	11	global	global	ADJ
iajs-2631	167	12	economy	economy	NOUN
iajs-2631	167	13	;	;	PUNCT
iajs-2631	167	14	oced	oce	VERB
iajs-2631	167	15	/	/	SYM
iajs-2631	167	16	iea	iea	NOUN
iajs-2631	167	17	:	:	PUNCT
iajs-2631	167	18	paris	paris	PROPN
iajs-2631	167	19	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	167	20	france	france	PROPN
iajs-2631	167	21	,	,	PUNCT
iajs-2631	167	22	2004	2004	NUM
iajs-2631	167	23	.	.	PUNCT