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 Indian Journal of Finance and Banking; Vol. 1, No. 2; 2017 

                                                         ISSN 2574-6081  E-ISSN 2574-609X 

 Published by Centre for Research on Islamic Banking & Finance and Business 

 

17 
 

 

Turkey's E.U Membership: Perceptions, Possibilities, and 

Implications
 
 

Yusuf Ibrahim Gamawa1 

 

 1Bauchi State University, Gadau, Nigeria  

Correspondence: Bauchi State University, Gadau, Nigeria.Email: yusufgamawa@ymail.com 

 

 

Received: October 14, 2017        Accepted: October 28, 2017     Online Published: November 01, 2017  

 

Abstract 

The membership of Turkey into the European Union has remained as controversial as ever, even at this point 

when countries like U.K are leaving the EU, Turkey's membership in the Union is still being discussed in many 

circles. Though at this point it is clear Turkeys drive to join the EU appears to have dropped drastically and 

many believe that citizens of Turkey may no longer be interested in being part of the EU, the truth, however, 

remains that Turkey will always want to be in the EU, despite whatever disappointment. The pessimistic views 

are seen to be the result of previous disappointments and not that the Turks have lost hope or interest in the EU 

project. This paper aims to analyze the possibilities and implications of Turkey's membership of the EU and 

argues that membership of Turkey into the Union is still a possibility despite whatever implications it would 

have for Europe, especially if one considers the change in perception on both the side of Turkey and the EU 

regarding Turkey's membership bid.
 

 

Keywords: Capital Structure, Board Size, Board Duality. 

 

1. Introduction 

Turkey is generally seen to be a Muslim country mainly as a result of its history. The history of a nation and its 

destiny always move hand in hand, though dynamic changes could always occur. That the Ottoman Empire had 

its roots in Turkish soil makes it difficult for modern Turkey to separate itself from Ottoman culture, religion, 

and society in the eyes of the world. The Turks can never separate themselves from the Islamic empire that the 

Ottoman was, nor deny that an Islamic empire once flourished on Turkish soil. It is a past that is still alive, and 

which kept hunting the advances that the modern republic of Turkey has constantly been making to become a 

member of the European Union amongst many other reasons. To many people, it was incomprehensible that 

Turkey could aspire to become a member of the EU, owing mainly to its Ottoman past. Though sometimes this 

point is not clearly made but one can understand the rationale behind such thoughts. This thinking helped create 

a perception which is sometimes difficult to dismiss even among Turks themselves, and also helped influence 

the thinking amongst many people and nations regarding Turkey's EU membership bid. Despite favored in terms 

of its interaction and location to Europe, to many, it is unimaginable that Turkey should be counted as part of 

Europe or belonging to the EU. This more than anything else echoes each time the issue of Turkey's membership 

in the EU is mentioned, it remained unsettled in the minds of many.
 



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The Arab media from the early times remained critical of Turkey's effort to be an EU member, this is mainly due 

to the fact that many people including Arabs did not properly understand the concept of the European Union, 

and as such Turkey's 1987 application for membership had a bombshell effect on the Arab world. To many 

Arabs and Muslims, it was impossible for Turkey to be in the EU, seeing the EU membership as amounting to 

accepting Christianity, and or betrayal of the Islamic world. And there is no doubt that this perception exists 

with regards to Turkey's EU membership, and may have contributed in a way to many of the fears of Turkey 

being in the EU, despite the fact that religion isn't part of the conditions for membership. The membership 

application of Turkey seemed to have raised the issue of identity in the debate for accession, though not openly. 

It is mainly the complex history of Turkey that is making its candidature controversial though not impossible 

and has generated reactions from every part of the world, from leaders of nations in Africa, the Middle East to 

Europe, which tended to preserve the status quo, owing mainly to reactions from the Middle East. Reactions 

continued to come from scholars and even from ordinary people across the globe, with different opinions mainly 

negative regarding the issue. While many disagreed with Turkey's bid, yet others supported the bid of Turkey, 

and another group remained indifferent,  but yet followed the development the membership bid with keen 

interest, contemplating its reality or not.
 

However, no matter the controversy the membership bid may have provoked, as well as the reactions it 

generated, the Turks have indicated their interest to be part of the EU long before now, and have taken concrete 

steps which demonstrated their commitment to actualizing their long-term ambition of becoming members of 

the EU. And though there is a significant change in perception over the years regarding the issue, and many 

people and nations came to understand what membership of the EU actually means to member nations. In 2005 

when Turkey renewed its bid, the negative reactions could not be compared with that of 1987, and today there is 

a lot of improvement in the way many nations and people both within and outside Europe regarding Turkey's 

EU membership and many seemed to have come to terms with Turkey's ambition in this globalised world. And 

what is important at this critical stage now is to look at how far Turkey has progressed on the march towards its 

ambition over many years and why it has not yet become a member, despite several years of relationship with 

Europe, and at present despite many years of negotiation with the European Union. These are some of the 

questions we should be asking, and if we are able to find answers, and then probably more may come up, which 

may be futuristic in nature, such as; will Turkey become an EU member?And when? This is apart from many 

other questions which we may not want to discuss in this paper. Many have wondered why Turkey wants to join 

the EU, and on the other many wonders why it is still not a member. The two questions cannot be dismissed 

easily because just as many argue that the Turks haven't a place in Europe, others argue that the Turks have a 

prominent role and not just a place in the EU. While many see Turkey as having much to offer to the EU, others 

see nothing at all. The US president Barrack Obama was quoted by Yasser Abu Hilale of Jordan's Al-Gad 

newspaper in April 2009 as saying "Turkey must be part of the EU and that Turkey's geo-strategic importance, 

its culture, and its influential foreign policy will enrich Europe show his greatness". Open Society (2009) It is 

for these reasons that we as students must dig into the reasons and be able to come up with a concrete position 

on why on why Turkey is aspiring to become a member of the EU, and then look at the possibility of 

membership despite whatever problems we may have discovered in the process of our study, that may have been 

staining the relationship between Turkey and the EU and take a look at the future of this relationship. 

2. Membership Bid of the Republic of Turkey 

The republic of Turkey first made an application to join the European Commission as a member in 1959. Turkey 

as a nation, since it’s founding in 1923, continued steadily to follow a policy of political, economic and social 



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westernization under Mustapha Kemal with the aim of re-organizing their society to redefine Turkeys position in 

the world. But certainly, this is not to say that the Turks have not had relations with Europe before the founding 

of the republic. Relations between the Turks and Europe predate the republic, and relations with Europe 

flourished even during the times of the Ottomans. It is on record that the Ottoman empire did participate in the 

Paris peace conference of 1856 and the Berlin conference of 1878 in the nineteenth century. Alber Jens (2007) 

Not only that, during the first world war, the Ottomans were part of an alliance that included Germany and 

Austria, which were European countries, after the war between Turkey and Greece. Part of the explanation for 

Turkey's application to join the EC in 1959, was to check Greek influence in the region, it was a move that was 

necessitated by the dictates of the modern international system and politics. And in 1963, though membership 

was not granted to Turkey, an agreement was signed in Ankara, regulating Turkey's association with the 

European Commission. The Ankara agreement as it came to be known dealt mainly with trade and financial 

matters, and also prospects of full membership was offered during the agreement, though at an unspecified date. 

This marked a significant step in the history of Turkey's relationship with the European Commission, then the 

EU had not been formed. Turkey's intentions of joining Europe had been clear right from the beginning and 

remain the same till today. It would appear that the Turks have journeyed long to become part of the European 

community and have sacrificed their culture and identity by embracing that of Europe, all in an effort to be 

accepted. The Greek reason principally motivated the Turks to move into the European community, being 

surrounded by European nations. Apart from the Ankara agreement, in 1970 an additional protocol establishing 

a twenty-two-year transitional period leading to a customs union was signed between Turkey and the European 

Commission. However, at this time relations between Turkey and the EC received some setbacks as a result of 

Turkey's intervention in Cyprus in 1974, following a coup that was sponsored by the Greeks. It was much after 

the tensions had eased that between the duo, that in 1987, Turkey renewed its membership bid. Turgut Ozal, 

then Turkish Prime Minister, realized that Greek membership of the EC had put Turkey in a disadvantaged 

position and hoped to re-establish Turkey's position as a stable country and take advantage of membership to 

promote trade and Turkish products in the Mediterranean area. E.U Center (2008) The 1987 bid did not succeed 

for a number of reasons; the first being that the EC was at the pre-occupied with the creation of a European 

single market and as a result was not ready to accommodate new membership. The second reason was the issue 

of human rights and rights of minorities, with regards to the Kurdish people in the southern Anatolia. The EC 

further raised reservations regarding the ability of Turkey to implement the reforms required for membership 

and at the same time enlargement was suspended until 1993. It was the Copenhagen summit of 1993 that gave 

Turkey some hope of membership. It was at the summit that the decision to accept central and eastern European 

countries was taken since the collapse of communism in 1991, and a blueprint containing economic and political 

criteria for membership into the EC was also produced. In 1997, the European Council summit in Luxembourg 

did not consider the membership of Turkey, it was however at the Luxembourg summit that negotiations 

between Turkey and the EC froze. The council was said to have refused Turkey's membership because of the 

dispute on Cyprus and the Greeks. In Turkey, the Turks had a different opinion, and saw the decisions from 

mainly from religious and cultural angles. Such opinion was further influenced by the remarks of The European 

Christians Democratic Union to the effect that "The European Union is in the process of building a civilization 

in which Turkey has no place". E.U Center (2008) It was at the Helsinki summit in 1999 that the EU changed its 

position suddenly and reconfirmed Turkey's candidature to the EU, so long as it fulfilled the Copenhagen 

criteria of 1993 and resolved its long-standing conflict with Greece.
 

Between 1991 and 2002 a lot of positive events took place and were favorable to Turkey, among which are a 



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change of government in Germany, which saw Turkey now has the support of Germany, and a new support from 

the US.  Turkey's relations with Greece also improved considerably. Other factors were within Turkey, the 

coming of a new party to power as well as its commitment to continue with the reform program of the EU and 

ensuring stability in southern Turkey which had been a volatile area for many years. At this time Turkey offered 

to accept a UN plan for settlement in Cyprus. With these developments, an agreement was made in 2002 at the 

Copenhagen European council that accession negotiations could start in mid-2005 if Turkey could abide by the 

Copenhagen criteria. The criteria actually outlined three major areas
 

 A functional market economy with competitive pressures. 

 Stability of institutions, guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, good governance and human rights 

with respect for and protection of minorities. 

 Capacity to take obligations of membership, including adherence to aims of a political, economic and 

monetary union.
 

The republic of Turkey had pursued a policy of reform long before the Copenhagen summit, reforms began 

since the founding of the republic, and subsequent government after Ataturk continued with these reforms in all 

areas. The significance of these reforms and policies embarked upon can be seen in the fact that when the 

Copenhagen criteria came out, the republic of Turkey already belonged to the camp of market economies. Many 

new coming members of the EU did not have a better market functional economy than Turkey, including Greece 

and Spain. Looking at the second criteria, one would say that since 1982, ran a parliamentary system of 

government, with elections and multi-party democracy with separation of powers. Two international 

nongovernmental organizations; Freedom House and Transparency International monitored the observance of 

good governance and human right, including corruption in Turkey. And the ratings of these organizations show 

that Turkey improved its rating year after year, steadily even though it was yet to meet the European standards 

of good governance. The progress Turkey was making was also recorded in the EU progress report on the 

accession process in 2006. The report indicated that there was a progress in the fight against corruption, though 

it faulted issues of human right and minorities, including freedom of the press, independence of the judiciary 

and rights of trade unions which it said remained impaired, and wanted Turkey to consider changes in these 

areas before full membership can be considered. It was however argued that there were countries which are 

members of EU whose rating in terms of political rights were far below that of Turkey, a country like Romania 

was rated as the EU worst by the Freedom House in 2007 and Transparency International in 1997 and 2007. 

Alber Jens (2007)
 

3. Consequences of Turkey's Membership in the EU
 

Many writers and political observers both within and outside of Europe that have been following Turkey's 

accession process into the EU, have on many occasions seen another side regarding the reasons why Turkey has 

failed to become a member of the EU. Many mention the fears other EU nation concerning Turkey and tended to 

look at the issues of reforms as mere excuses to stop the Turks. It is reported that many countries did not 

understand why Turkey wants to be in the EU, and it is generally agreed by many analysts with evidence that 

these fears do exist but the EU has never formally accepted and presented these reasons formally but has 

constantly used in full compliance with the Copenhagen criteria as a formal reason with other informal reasons 

behind. Some analysts see such criteria as deliberately crafted to block the membership bid of Turkey and for 

this many have wondered as to the actual reasons why Turkey is not considered in the EU, what are the fears if 

they really do exist? And the speculations are that
 



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 Size: The population of Turkey is about 70 million, and is projected to 100 million by 2020. If Turkey is 

admitted, it will become second to only Germany of 25 EU states, it may become the largest EU member 

state in future. 

 Economic development: The position of the economy of Turkey is seen as not very good, and below 

that of any of the ten EU states that joined in 2004, its GDP is just 2% of the EU25 GDP PER CAPITA 

which is 28.5%. 

 Geographical location: Turkey is geographically located in Asia, and has long borders with states that 

are potentially unstable or hostile to the EU. 

 Islamism: Turkey is overwhelmingly an Islamic country, Turkey’s membership will increase the EU’s 

Islamic population from 3% currently to around 20%. Nugent Neil (2005) 

The nature of Turkey's threat to the EU is seen from different perspective by different analysts and political 

observers. They argue that Turkey's accession would have a great impact on the EU and its institutions, it would 

have great effect also in other EU member countries, and many countries will lose presence in the EU. In fact 

even the decision making process in the EU is seen to change due to the influence of Turkey if it becomes a 

member state. It is also thought that the size of Turkey and its economic under development will result in Turkey 

becoming the major beneficiary of EU's funding program. But also the nature of concerns vary among the 

individual EU states, though it generally agreed that there is stiff opposition to Turkey's membership among the 

relevant actors within the EU. Germany has been traditionally opposed to Turkey's bid until recently, while 

France till now remains opposed to Turkey joining the, Sarkozy openly showed his strong opposition to Turkey's 

membership. The UK and the U.S. have shown strong support for Turkey. Whereas Greece was opposed to 

Turkey's membership, but recently took a turn to support Turkey, following pressure from UK and US. Austria is 

also opposed to Turkey's membership, and the current Chancellor was quoted as saying "Turkey in the EU 

would mean the end of EU". Nugent Neil (2005)
 

But even as these fears are raised by EU member countries, of the threat of Turkey, yet many analysts see the 

positive aspect of the implication of European integration of Turkey. It is argued that, the population of Turkey, 

which is about 70 million, is a large market for the EU, and as a result of the customs union, all barriers to trade 

have long been eliminated. Yet another advantage is seen in terms of labor market. The Turkish population is 

seen to have much younger workforce population than the EU 25. The Commissions projections shows that the 

EU 25's total population will increase by 2% (449-458 million) between 2005 to 2025, its working population 

falling by 21%, from 2005 to 2030, the number over 65 years will rise by 52.3%, while 14 -64  age group will 

decrease by 6.8% resulting in the ratio of dependent and old people. In Turkey the working age group will 

increase from 49% in 2005 to 66% in 2030 (European Commission). The Turkish workforce can complement 

human resource in many of the EU 25 nations in different fields. Even the issue of Islamism is viewed from 

another perspective. The UK's support for Turkey stems from the thinking that admitting an Islamic populated 

country like Turkey to the EU will serve to demonstrate that Islam, democracy and western capitalism can mix, 

to encourage moderate Islamism, and may also help EU member countries have softer influence and 

understanding for other Islamic populated countries.
 

 4. The Future of Turkey’s EU Membership 

The article published by the European Commission in its progress report on Turkey, on 10 October, 2012 by 

Stefan Fule, quoted Fule from the beginning saying "Orhan Pamuk said that Turkey's EU project has fallen apart. 

These words coming from a Nobel Prize winner and a writer of books I admire made a big impression on me. 

As European Commissioner responsible for enlargement policy, I deal on daily basis with various aspects of 



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EU-Turkey relations and I can certainly say that our joint project has not been abandoned; on the contrary, 

important initiatives have injected new energy and new hope. But I do think Pamuk's words reflect the mood 

often felt on both sides and they come at the right moment. I see them as a wakeup call, at a time when the EU 

and Turkey are at crossroads and need to take decisive steps forward on their common path". Stefan went on to 

highlight many of the challenges facing the EU and Turkey, but at the same time insisting that a lot of progress 

has been made in many areas and what remains to be finished should be finished saying "When I ask my 

Turkish partners where they see Turkey in five, ten, twenty years from now, they all say anchored in Europe. 

When I put the same questions to my intercalators and politicians in the EU, the answer is the same; they see 

Turkey's future as a modern European state. Mr. Stefan concluded his article with the following words "When I 

first came to Turkey as EU Commissioner nearly three years ago; I believed Turkey can become a member of 

the European Union. We have a joint commitment towards this goal". Fule Stefan (2012)
 

Based on the above, one can say with some confidence, that Turkey becoming a member of the E.U is a 

possibility that cannot be ruled out, despite whatever problems that may exist. And many agree unlike before, 

that the resistance to Turkey’s membership has reduced drastically over the years. In the pre 2000 period, many 

reasons including Islamism were given, and there were stiff oppositions from all sides. As mentioned in the 

introduction a very strong perception was formed about Turkey with regards to the EU, which many tried to see 

from a religious angle? Even among Muslim nations, Turkey’s membership of the EU could not be entirely 

understood. 

An article by the Tribune Media Services titled "Does Europe want Turkey? Posted on the internet in 2005, was 

quoted as saying "The Paris October 11, 2005, European Union's decision to open talks with Turkey is another 

act of polite duplicity, another social lie, so to speak, in the EU's dealings with Turkey". And in another part, it 

said "That is why it was no service to Europe or to Turkey for EU leaders to have encouraged a Turkish bid for 

membership in a Europe that does not want Turkey. Why not? Turkey is not Europe. It is intimately involved in 

Europe's history, but the defining qualities of Europe derive from Attic Greece and Christianity to both which 

Turkey is foreign. This clearly expresses such negative perceptions regarding Turkey and the EU over the years. 

Tribune Media (2005)
 

Yet, another graduate student of Mathematics, from Idaho state University in U.S., back in 2005 posted an 

article on the internet titled "The real reasons why Turkey is not allowed in the EU". In the article, this graduate 

student appeared to be attacking one Mr. Guaugliardo, who had earlier written an article on the 1st of October, 

2004 giving reasons for Turkey's nonadmittance into the EU to include religion. But the graduate student in his 

article on www.math.isu.edu dismissed the issue of religion and insisted that Mr. Guaugliardo's article was 

misleading, and maintained that the Cyprus dispute and human right issues remain the only stumbling blocks to 

Turkey’s membership in the EU. Aristidou Michael (2004) 

And today everything looks different. Even in the Arab world, today Turkeys bid is seen in a positive light, and 

likewise in Europe, considering the recent support from Germany, UK and the U.S. as well as Greece, the 

ancient old rivals, are now all in support of Turkey's membership. The negotiating framework has made it clear 

that candidates whose accession could have substantial financial consequences (i.e. Turkey) the talks could only 

be concluded after 2014, which is the date for the establishment of EU's new financial framework. This also 

gives more hope to the EU-Turkey joint membership project. There are about four scenarios analyzed regarding 

the future of Turkey and the EU. The first scenario sees popular disenchantment with enlargement ceding, and 

demographic pressure could convince EU member states to admit Turkey.EU Center (2008) The second is that 

poor economic projections in Europe in the future will lead to strong opposition from EU member states that 

http://www.math.isu.edu/


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Turkey is admitted. Third, is that Turkey implements in full all reforms, which may lead it to qualify for 

membership, economic reforms lead to a boom in Turkey's economy and it becomes a regional power, with its 

neo-Ottoman tendencies, rejects the EU membership. The final scenario is the rejection of the European project 

from the Turkish society, arising from what it perceives as anti-Muslim discrimination and chooses to no longer 

pursue EU membership.
 

5. Conclusion 

In conclusion, as things stand now, there is no indication that in this time scenario four could happen, it 

appeared that scenario four had already been passed when Turkey was turned down in 2004 that was when 

popular support for the membership dropped from within the Turkish society, but that has not made the Turks 

abandon the project. If any of the scenarios will come to play, it may likely be scenario one or three. Scenario 

four can only be possible if another attempt is made by Turkey and it receives a negative response from the EU, 

then it will be almost certain that the entire Turkish society will withdraw from the membership project. If after 

all the reforms and careful adoption of the European agenda since the 1920's, and after being turned down in 

2005, almost ten years ago, and it is certain that much progress has been made in meeting the membership 

criteria by now, and for this, no reason will be sufficient for the EU to give for rejecting Turkey's membership 

from 2014-2015. There are no egalitarian societies in the world, and many have commended the Turks for such 

grand transformation of their entire society over the last several decades, just to belong to the European 

community. After all the Marxist philosophy was criticized as utopian in nature, for advocating a perfect society, 

and in the same vein, the EU criteria sometimes appear utopian to some countries and have remained a mirage 

for countries like Turkey, perhaps it was created for them. The EU stands a better chance of making changes 

inside Turkey if it is a member of the Union, and all outstanding issues, including that of Cyprus and the Kurds, 

could be resolved within the framework of the EU, but then it is highly unlikely for the Republic of Turkey to 

cooperate in resolving both the Kurdish issue and that of Cyprus once it becomes a member of the EU. However, 

the words of Stefan Fule clearly show the possibility of Turkey's membership despite the continued turbulence 

in the membership process and relations between Turkey and the EU. Despite the failure of the 2010 bid by 

Turkey over the Cyprus issue, the EU and Turkey again opened talks in 2016, but as reported, again relations 

between the EU and Turkey have turned sour after the crackdown by Turkey's Erdogan after the July 2016 coup 

in which hundreds of people were arrested in Turkey. The EU maintains that the arrests made were 

unconstitutional. Reuters (2016) 
 

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