key: cord-279581-d2l4nnex
authors: Abuhabib, A.A.; Abu-Aita, Said N.; Procter, Caitlin; Al-Smeri, Ibtesam
title: Unique situation of Gaza Strip dealing with COVID-19 crisis
date: 2020-09-03
journal: Int J Infect Dis
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.070
sha: 
doc_id: 279581
cord_uid: d2l4nnex

Infected COVID19 cases continue to increase, having already reached 21 million globally, attracting scientists around the world to trying to find a possible vaccine. Unlike many places around the world, movement restrictions and difficulties in travelling in and out due to 13 years old blockade with no possibility for tourists to travel in, has benefited Gaza in terms of being self-isolated and less likely to have many travellers or foreigners carrying the virus and infecting the population. First cases discovered on 22 March 2020 and by 05 July 2020, they were still only 72 cases confirmed, 60 of whom successfully treated, 11 active cases and only 1 death. Constructively, this study follows direct observation approach with in-depth disk review for data collected locally from official sources (Governmental bodies, UN agencies, and INGOs), concrete context analysis is then made and employed towards predicting the potential risk scenarios associated with COVID19 supported by the application of simple risk matrix for each scenario within a limited time frame covering the period from 22 March to 05 July 2020. Three different risk scenarios associated with COVID19 risks studied and analysed towards understanding exceptional circumstances surrounding Gaza along with potential mitigation measures executed and suggested.

Unlike many other parts of the Middle East region, and particularly Egypt, Israel and the West Bank, Cases of COVID-19 were not detected until 22 March 2020 in the Gaza Strip. On that particular day, the first two cases for Palestinians travelling from Pakistan, arriving in Gaza through its southern border with Egypt, tested positive to the virus [3] . Such delay is most likely related to the restricted movement of Palestinians to and from Gaza, due to the imposed blockade leaving the residents with only two crossing points in the north with Israel (Eretz) and in the south with Egypt (Rafah) experiencing sever movement constraints in both crossing points. -Stop all educational activities including schools and universities as well as reducing office working hours to the minimum for all non-medical non-security forces public staff.

-Closure of all wedding halls, stop weekly mobile markets, prohibit all gathering events (e.g. parties, workshops, conferences, etc.) and prevent any form of crowdedness.

-Encourage all citizens to stay home and limit their movements to the minimum. J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 4 As such, this study aims at assessing and analysing the unique situation of Gaza (characterized by long lasting blockade with restricted movement, dense population, and political implications) in the light of COVID-19 spreading and outlining potential scenarios, both optimistic and pessimistic associated with control measures acting as responsive course of action.

This study follows the direct observation approach with in-depth disk review for data collected locally from official sources (Governmental bodies, UN agencies, and INGOs), concrete context analysis is then made and employed towards predicting the potential risk scenarios associated with COVID19 supported by the application of simple risk matrix for each scenario likelihood determination and consequences identification within a limited time frame covering the period from 22 March to 05 July 2020.

In this study, situation analysis is made based on risk assessment conducting. Risk assessment is made by applying risk matrix tool illustrated in figure no.1 and table no.1 [16] towards: assessing potential risks acting as potential scenarios, identifying associated impacts for each risk and suitable mitigation J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f measures to be considered. The likelihood per each risk assumed is made base on local authorities' mitigation measures taken and impact is similarly identified. Obviously, the second scenario has been going for nearly a month now and does not seem to impact the healthcare system badly, as things are under control. However, and despite the fact that such situation seems to be positive on the health side, the restricted measures taken by the local authorities previously mentioned are highly affecting the life of Gazans severely, as people are living in an exceptional situation presented by the closure of all education institutes including schools and universities, regular weekly markets are prohibited, public activities and gathering are not allowed, etc.

Consequently, and due to protective measures taken by local authorities, thousands of daily paid J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f workers, street vendors, fishermen and farmers, small scale business owners, and others have either lost their income fully or partially or having their livelihoods at high risk. Some aids were provided by international organizations and external donors but they are far below population needs. According to the state of emergency Palestine's COVID response plan announced by Palestinian Authorities in Ramallah, the economic losses across Palestinian territories are expected to reach $2.8 billon [17] .

It should be taking into account that the second scenario is less likely to develop or to roll over to the first scenario compared to the third one. Sustaining this particular scenario may act as an exit strategy where not only the local authorities' measures sustained but also coping mechanisms developed across the past years of isolation and besieged of the population are employed. Associated lowincome, restricted movements, low quality public services, sequence of wars and emergency incidences, and other difficulties faced by the population for long time contribute positively to comply smoothly with restricted measures imposed by the authorities to respond to COVID19 outbreak perhaps for longer period than any community across the globe withstand. On the other hand, sustaining protective measures associated with the second scenario are highly recommended but the longer they go, the more economic burden is felt by the population. Therefore, and based on the situation developing towards COVID19 containment in Gaza, gradual easing of these measures with close monitoring can be also applied for short-term period while weekly evaluation is to be conducted by authorities.

The study does not involve the use of human or animal subjects in any way (e.g. experimental data, interviews, etc.). therefore, Medical or Helsinki declaration are not required nor needed. 

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Risk matrix: an approach for identifying, assessing, and ranking program risks

Evidence Based Management Guideline for the COVID-19 Pandemic-Review article

☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential -No financial interest.-Study was not funded by any external or internal party.
