CONTACT :   WHISNU FEBRY AFRIANTO                       whisnuafrianto@apps.ipb.ac.id 
 

74 

Abstract 
            Acacia deccurens Wild. has been reported as invasive alien species (IAS) in 
several areas of Indonesia. Climate change may impact IAS to be more invader. 
The study aimed was to develop a species distribution model of A. deccurens to 
depict the potential distribution under climate change in Indonesia. Biodiversity 
and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL) was used to examine a species 
distribution model (SDM) of A. decurrens in Indonesia based on climate variables 
and its naturalized distribution to predict the project distribution under current 
and future climate conditions. The data was collected from Global Biodiversity 
Information Facility (GBIF) to identify the species occurrences. The climate 
variables used in this study were temperature and precipitation layers based on 
WorldClim, current climate (1950-2000), 2.5 arcmin (~5km). The SDM of the 
Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was utilized to predict the response variable as 
a function of multiple predictor variables. We selected four IPCC Representative 
Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for 2050. The prediction of 
the distribution of A. deccurens in 2050 showed that it was likely to decrease in 
Indonesia (mostly found only in Sumatra and Sulawesi Island). Almost all climate 
variables used in this study were responsive to A. decurrens distribution, except 
B09 - mean temperature of the driest quarter. The ROC plot showed excellent 
values (0.99). The information of the potential distribution on IAS under current 
and future climate scenarios can be used for policymakers and stakeholders to 
manage and handle the invasion. 
 

ISSN : 2580-2410 
eISSN : 2580-2119 

 
 

The Potential Distribution Prediction of The Invasive Alien 
Species Acacia decurrens Wild., in Indonesia 
  
Whisnu Febry Afrianto 1* 
 

1 Ecosystem and Biodiversity (Ecosbio), Jl. Merapi 02/01, Datengan, Grogol, Kediri, 64151 
 
 

 
 
  
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Introduction 

The genus of Acacia worldwide includes ± 1300 species and about 960 species come 
from Australia and it spreads in the tropics to the temperate area, namely Europe, Africa, 
South Asia, and America (Wrigley & Fagg, 2013). One of the Acacia species spread in 
Indonesia is Acacia deccurens Wild. This species, commonly known as black wattle or green 
wattle, is a fast-growing tree species of the Fabaceae family (Bamidele et al., 2017). This 
species can grow about 6-12 m and easily adapt to acidic soil conditions (Endalew et al., 
2014). Naturally, A. deccurens grows in a lower mountain valley (Molla & Linger, 2017).  

A. deccurens is widely planted because it has benefits both for economic and 
environmental in forestry, agricultural, and ecosystem forestry (Nigussie et al., 2016; 
Wondie & Mekuria, 2018; Nigussie et al., 2020; Chanie & Abewa, 2021; Nigussie et al., 

        OPEN ACCESS             International Journal of Applied Biology 

Keyword 
Acacia deccurens, 
climate change, invasive 
alien species,  special 
distribution model. 

Article History 
Received 12 September 2021 
Accepted 30 December 2021 

International Journal of Applied Biology is licensed under a 
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which 
permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any 
medium, provided the original work is properly cited.  

 



International Journal of Applied Biology, 5(2), 2021 

 75 

2021). Several studies have reported that A. deccurens cultivated in degraded land can 
improve soil fertility, increase water quality, and prevent soil erosion (Reubens et al., 2011; 
Molla & Linger, 2017; Bazie et al., 2020).  Furthermore, according to CABI (2021), A. 
decurrens can be used as fuels (charcoal and fuelwood), ornamental plants, and materials 
(tanning and timber) (Richardson et al., 2015).   

On the other side, several publications have reported that A. decurrens is a severe 
invasive problem (i.e., Hawai, New Zealand, Africa, and Indonesia) that this species spreads 
rapidly through root suckers and seed (Richardson and Rejma´nek 2011; Richardson et al., 
2015). The invasion by an alien species of A. decurrens can proliferate as a pioneer plant in 
an area where the native species can not to adapt to environmental conditions (Sunardi et 
al., 2015; Sunardi et al., 2017). It creates negative consequences, especially for native 
biodiversity (Sunardi et al., 2017). In Indonesia, the invasiveness of A. decurrens is found 
several areas such as Mount Merapi after eruption 2006 (Suryanto et al., 2010 a,b) and 2010 
(Afrianto et al. 2016; Sunardi et al., 2017; Afrianto et al., 2017, Afrianto et al., 2020), Mount 
Merbabu (Purwaningsih, 2010; Untoro et al. 2017), Kawah Ijen Nature Tourism Park 
(Hapsari et al. 2014), and Mount Panderman Nature Tourism (Septiadi. 2018).   

Species distribution models (SDMs) can predict the effect on potential species 
distributions under climate change at the single-species and community levels (Sung et al., 
2018). The study aimed to develop a SDM of A. deccurens to project the potential 
distribution under climate change in Indonesia. Therefore, understanding the SDM of the 
potential distribution of the invasive species under and future climate change can be used 
as early preventive and management strategies for managing and handling the invasion. 
 
 

Materials and Methods 
Data collection 

This study was analyzed by the Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory 
(BCCVL) (http://www.bccvl.org.au/). BCCVL is cloud-based, providing access to modeling 
tools, large species distribution, climate, the collection of biological and other 
environmental datasets, and diverse experiment categories to carry out a study into the 
relationship between biodiversity and climate change (Hallgren et al., 2016). The Global 
Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) (http://www.gbif.org/) dataset of A. decurrens was 
used to conduct the species occurrence (GBIF 2021). Worldclim current conditions (1950-
2000) at 2.5 arcmin was used in this simulation. Based on the database, A. decurrens has 
about 17,917 occurrence records and 17,232 geo-referenced. Then, this data was imported 
in BCCVL. The climate and environmental data used WorldClim, current climate (1950-
2000), 2.5 arcmin (~5km). These bioclimatic variables were generated using 1950 to 2000 
from an array of global climate layers (except Antarctica). Eight climate variables were 
chosen in the BCCVL, such as:  

1. B04 (temperature seasonality, standard deviation) 
2. B05 (max temperature of warmest month) 
3. B06 (min temperature of coldest month) 
4. B08 (mean temperature of wettest quarter) 
5. B09 (mean temperature of driest quarter) 
6. B13 (precipitation of wettest month) 
7. B14 (precipitation of driest month) and,  
8. B15 (precipitation seasonality, coefficient of variation).  
The temperature and precipitation data were chosen because they are important 



International Journal of Applied Biology, 5(2), 2021 

 76 

factors to impact vegetation range and abundance of species (Krebs, 1985). Afrianto et al., 
(2017) state that the habitat preferences of A. decurrens were strongly correlated with 
temperature conditions. Because we do not have a true absence dataset for the 
experiment, we used the pseudo absence configuration (PA models) with the absence-
presence ratio of 1, the random pseudo-absence strategy, and the number of background 
points of 10,000. Pseudo-absence points were used to generate for the experiment. 
 
Data analysis 

The experiment was conducted by the primary experiment of SDM experiment. For 
the algorithm of SDM, we used Generalized Linear Model (GLM). The GLM is a linear 
regression model to predict the response variable as a function of multiple predictor 
variables. The GLM was used because it has several advantages, namely (1) the response 
variable be able to all form of the exponential distribution model, (2) can be used in 
categorical predictors, (3) easy to interpret and understand how each of the indicators is 
impacting the outcome, (4) less vulnerable to overfitting than for instance CTA or MARS 
algorithms. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) 
curve was used to examine model robustness. This curve is a non-parametric threshold-
independent measure of accuracy used to assess SDM (Bertelsmeier & Courchamp. 2014). 
The x-axis of the ROC plot is a graph of the false positive rate (1- specificity), and the y-axis is 
an actual positive rate (sensitivity). The values above 0.5 means prediction better than 
random, and the value of 0.5 means a random prediction. The AUC score was classified as 
follow (Crego et al., 2014): 

A. Value above 0.9 is excellent 
B. Good 0.9 > AUC > 0.8 
C. Fair 0.8 > AUC > 0.7 
D. Poor 0.7 > AUC > 0.6, and 
E. Fail 0.6 > AUC > 0.5  
Further analysis was conducted by the secondary experiment that is the climate 

experiment, to investigate the distribution of a species under potential future climatic 
conditions. A climate change experiment predicted A. decurrens distribution with the 
climate information under climate change scenarios. In this study, we selected four IPCC 
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the 2050s. 
Furthermore, we evaluated by (1) WorldClim, future projection using IPSL-CM5A-LR RCP 2.6 
10 arcmin (2050), (2) WorldClim, future projection using IPSL CM5A-LR RCP 4.5, 10 arcmin 
(2050), (3) WorldClim, future projection using IPSL-CM5A-LR RCP 6.0, 10 arcmin (2050), and 
(4) WorldClim, future projection using IPSL-CM5ALR RCP 8.5, 10 arcmin (2050). The 
prediction results based on the current climate condition indicate distribution of suitable 
habitat. 
 

RESULTS AND DISSCUSSION 
Present distribution of A. decurrens in Indonesia 

The introduction of A. decurrens in Indonesia is for industrial purposes. This exotic 
plant species is planted as crops plants or plantations such as mahogany, pine, agathist, 
coffee, cocoa, palm oil, acacia, African wood, and others. Exotic species introduced in 
Indonesia are listed as industrial plants. including A. decurrens since ancient times of Dutch 
colonialism (Purwaningsih, 2010). 

The prediction of the current distribution of A. decurrens showed that mostly this 



International Journal of Applied Biology, 5(2), 2021 

 77 

species occurred in Sumatra and Sulawesi Island. In Sumatra Island, A. decurrens distributed 
to several provinces Banda Aceh, North Sumatera, West Sumatera, and Bengkulu. In 
contrast, in Sulawesi Island, this invasive species spread to West Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, 
and some parts of along with Southeast Sulawesi (Figure 1). However, until now, no 
scientific documents and reports explain the occurrence of A. decurrens in these areas. 
Mostly, the studies of A. decurrens is only found in Java Island, especially in Mount Merapi 
National Park. Based on the report GBIF, in Indonesia A. decurrens has less for the 
invasiveness impact with 42 occurrences reported (GBIF, 2021). On the other hand, the 
highest occurrence is found in Colombia of 12,725 occurrences and has the highest 
invasiveness impact of A. decurrens. 

 

 
Figure 1.  Map of current distribution of IAS of A. decurrens under current climate 

condition in Indonesia using GLM algorithm in BCCVL. Darker areas represent a higher 
potential distribution of A. decurrens. 

 
By “invasion pathway” or the stages of invasion, there are five nonexclusive 

consequences of climate change for invasive species, namely (1) modified transport and 
initiation mechanisms, (2) establishment stage by new invasive species in the area, (3) 
modified impact of existing invasive species, (4) the spreading of invasive species, and (5) 
modified effectiveness of control approach (Hellman et al., 2008). The distribution of 
invasive species under climate change is found more invader in outside protected areas of 
Europe's marine and terrestrial because of the low human accessibility (Gallardo et al., 
2017). Panda et al., (2017) state the phenology and capacity of species to adapt quickly in 
climate are potentially related to the invasion stage in the future climate.  
 
Potential future distribution under climate change of A. decurrens in Indonesia 

Climate change condition is likely to decrease the potential of the distribution of                    
A. decurrens in Indonesia. Figure 2 shows that A. deccurens in Sumatra Island was only 
found in Banda Aceh Province based on IPCC RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for 2050, and some 
part of North Sumatera (Pemantang Siantar) based on IPCC RCP 2.6 and 4.5 for 2050.  
Moreover, Figure 3 shows that A. decurrens in Sulawesi Island were only found in Central 
Sulawesi and South Sulawesi based on IPCC RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 6.0 for 2050. 
 



International Journal of Applied Biology, 5(2), 2021 

 78 

 
Figure 2. Comparison of climate change models of A. decurens for current and 2050 in 

Kalimantan Island. (A) Current distribution, and (B-2) IPCC RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the 
2050 were evaluated with WorldClim data and 10 arcmin resolution. Darker areas 

represent a higher potential distribution of A. decurrens. 
 



International Journal of Applied Biology, 5(2), 2021 

 79 

 
Figure 3. Comparison of climate change models of A. decurens for current and 2050 in 

Sulawesi Island. (A) Current distribution, and (B-2) IPCC RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the 
2050 were evaluated with WorldClim data and 10 arcmin resolution. Darker areas 

represent a higher potential distribution of A. decurrens. 
 

Except for B09 (mean temperature of driest quarter), all climate variables used in 
this study are responsive to A. decurrens distribution (Figure 4). A. decurrens was found in 
areas that have moderate frost tolerance. It grows in the warm sub-humid to the humid 
climatic zone. The environmental requirement of A. deccurens needs annual rainfall of 900-
1150 mm. It can grow with a mean minimum of the coolest month of 1-5°C, or it will even 
tolerate temperatures as low as -6°C. On the other hand, the mean maximum of the hottest 
month is 26-30°C. In general, the ROC plot showed excellent values (0.99) (Figure 5).  

The climate change predicted will make several species losses in 2050 (Gallagher et 
al. 2012). This phenomenon is because climate change will make a warmer condition where 
it may impact the flowering and seedling of several plant species (Germishuizen and 
Gardner 2015; Booth 2017). The short term of climate change is predicted to affect 
abundance and distribution (Blyth et al. 2021). In a different result, Sutomo et al. (2017) 
shows that the distribution prediction of A. nilotica in 2045 will increase, especially in 
eastern Indonesia.  Kriticos et al., (2003), also state SDM of A. nilotica might rising 
significantly because of climate change.  It is because A. nilotica can grow in temperature 
around ~35 °C or 5°C warmer rather than A. deccurens. 

This model prediction does not include other factors that are considered to impact 
the distribution of A. decurrens. Those factors are edaphic, topographic, and dispersal 
agent. It is because this species has values both economically and ecologically, thence social 
aspects are also required to be analysed (Sutomo et al., 2021 a,b). By adding those 
variables, it will make the prediction more powerful (Booth, 2018). 
 



International Journal of Applied Biology, 5(2), 2021 

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Figure 4. The response curve for A. decurrens distribution model. 

 

 
Figure 5. ROC plot of A. decurrens model using GLM in BCCVL. 

 
 

CONCLUSIONS 
A. decurrens will decrease in 2025 based on the current and future climate variables 

conditions. Except for the mean temperature of the driest quarter, all climate variables used 
in this study were responsive to A. decurrens distribution, and the ROC plot showed 
excellent values (0.99). This study provides great tools to determine the impacts of climate 
change on the IAS of A. decurrens for management purposes.   
 



International Journal of Applied Biology, 5(2), 2021 

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