International Journal of Commerce and Finance, Vol. 4, Issue 1, 2018, 96-106 96 THE ENERGY POLICIES OF EU, RUSSIA, TURKEY AND SYRIA Mehmet Enes Aşcı, (MA) Istanbul Medipol University, Turkey Abstract Today, global energy politics, mainly determined by oil and natural gas. These policies shape the basis of the regions have the largest share the reserves in Middle East, Central Asia and Caspian Regions.There is a significant global competition in the search for oil and natural gas exploration, production, and delivery to international markets. The fact that Turkey is going to become a country with increasing requests in energy market / sector is important for Turkey to become a strategic country for petrol and natural gas producers. Therefore, supply and demand variety in natural gas and petroleum import, supply security, and the sustainability/continuity of this situaton, energy transportation projects are essential for Turkey. Keywords: Oil, Natural Gas, Energy, Energy Policies, EU, Russia, Turkey, Syria 1. What is the effect of EU's Energy Policies on Turkey? Energy a life source in the world, and today, we can understand that most of the countries try to have energy resources. In addition to that, today, energy factor causes wars, regional or international conflicts, and political changes. Therefore, we can see that energy policy is used as one of the dominant tools to get moreand more power, especially in the international area of the world. As you know, energy sources are limited; factors such as the rise of the population, development of countries direct states to search for new energy sources in economical, and political perspectives. Energy consumption of developing countries gradually icrease; these countries try to get security of energy supply in legal ways. One of the best examples is EU. In this scientific study, firstly, we will focus on energy policies from a general perspective. Secondly, we will go inside to the specific energy policies of the EU countries, Russia, and Turkey. In the third part we will look at the potential effects of energy policies of EU and Russia on especially Turkey and we will discuss alternative energy methods for Turkey in the long-term plans. When we inspect global energy policies, we can deduce that there are fundamental goals in the energy sector. One of these goals is to provide energy security. The second important goal is to diversify energy sources. Another goal is to create a competition area between partners in the energy sector. The last goal is to offer to the consumer highest- quality energy with the lowest price. Therefore, the energy suppliers should have a multi-dimensional approach to foreign relations with other countries. Another important factor is the protection of the environment by the states. In other words, some energy sources like oil, natural gas, or coal may damage nature; the states should find a solution in order to solve this problem. Today, some countries have begun to alter their positions and policies. In other words, they are making much more investments in renewable energy sources or other alternative sources such as wind power, solar energy, or nuclear power. As stated before, energy policies depend on foreign policies of countries as well as consumption amounts of countries. Societies continuously need energy, and this situation challenges the states to find alternative energy sources. On the other hand, if we look at the primary energy resources in the world, we are going to see fossil fuels have ahuge part on the energy scale. In other words, it makes up 87 % of the daily energy consumption, renewable energy sources are just 7 % on the scale, and nuclear energy only 6 % on the scale. In te rn a ti o n a l Jo u rn a l o f C o m m e rc e a n d F in a n c e The Energy Policies of Eu, Russia, Turkey And Syria 97 Moreover, if we look at some estimations about energy usage, there are some serious parameters which can largely affect it; such as technological developments, rising population, fluctuations of the energy prices, acts and behaviours of countries and customers. According to IEA estimation, world energy consumption will go up approximatelly 40%. Also, IEA forecasts that demand for energy will focus on fossil fuels, and especially the demand for natural gas always will rise, the demand for oil also will increase a bit in the future. However, the demand rate will decrease, especially the coal demand after 2030 (Kaya, 2012). 2. Energy Policies Of Turkey When we look at Turkey’s position on energy, we can see that Turkey is not in an independent position in energy arena. In other words, Turkey buys oil and natural gas from abroad. Energy prices constitute a significant input cost for Turkish economy. On the other hand, Turkey is trying to reduce the dependency rate to Russia about natural gas, and is making bilateral treaties with other countries such as Azerbaycan, Iran, and Syria. Indeed, Turkey is eager to find alternative partners and different energy resources at the same time. We can see similar policies on the oil issue. Energy consumption of Turkey increases gradually, and the government buys two third’s of necessary energy from abroad. Besides, while making plans on energy policies, Turkey is aware that its energy sources are problematic. The reality is that Turkey is in a dependent position on energy suppliers in this region. Therefore, Turkey should make much stronger policies and strategies in the energy sector. In other words, Turkey should establish good relations with itsneighbors who have higher energy reserves. Potential oil and natural gas reserves exist in this region. This region houses 82,1 % of global natural gas, and 74 % of global oil reserves. This situation makes Turkey a dynamic energy market and a transit country for foreign energy suppliers at the same time. Turkey is part of two different energy projects in the region. One of them is TANAP. With the project of TANAP, Turkey will become a much more important country when the project is finished in 2017. With ŞahDeniz-2 region, natural gas will come to Turkish territory and then it will go to Europe. It means that this natural gas will pass on the Turkish territory as well. TANAP will bring gas from another project called NABUCCO to Bulgaria. In other words, Turkey and Azerbaijanwill together sell natural gas to the European market via TANAP. So, this situation will make Turkey much more significant, and Turkey will get not only some economic gains but also some political power as well (Kaya, 2012). Mehmet Enes Aşcı 98 Figure 1 TANAP- TAP-TURKISH STREAM MAP Figure 2 TURKISH STREAM AND OTHER PIPE LINES MAP The Energy Policies of Eu, Russia, Turkey And Syria 99 3. EU Energy Policies The oil crisis of 1973-74 and 1979 shows that EU countries have no security plans on energy supply, and this situation made the EU countries much more serious on this issue. They came together and tried to have common energy policies. Also, EU countries tried to make environmental projects after the oil crisis. Actually, EU countries were eager to increase energy efficiency, decrease import dependency, and benefit more from local energy sources as well. In the energy policies of EU, we can see that the methods are; benefiting from renewable energy sources, developing tools for energy supply and being more efficient in order to benefit from them. Extreme increase in the oil prices showed that EU has no security system on energy supply. They need an active energy plan in order to rescue themselves from dependency in this sector. The only way for EU to exit from the bottleneck is investing more in renewable energy sources and having a productive position in the energy sector. Another significant and serious factor is high foreign dependency of the EU countries on the oil and natural gas use. As EU is constantly grows, it especially affects oil and gas consumption rates. In other words, with the effect of the large population, energy is becoming an essential matter for EU. EU countries altered their program and started to give more importance to productivity on their political agenda as a future plan. For this reason, they adopted a new agenda known as "Green Book" and declared what they need and what they want to do at the global energy market (Kaya,2012:129-155). 4. Energy Politics of Russia With Leadership Of Putin The general foreign policy approach of Putin is based on a civilized competition in the polarized world order, and in this world order Russia will become a Super Power again. Also, when we look at the foreign policy of Putin, we can see a pragmatic approach when Russia makes cooperation with Western Powers. On the other hand, Russia uses Asian card politically at the same time (İşyar, 2004: 57-58). The USA is also practicing superpower strategy in the world, and they are eager to control Euro-Asia in a geopolitical manner (Brzezinski,2005:62-63). Putin unexpectedly has established close relations with China, EU countries, and even with the USA (Caşın,2002:8). Indeed, he wants to control energy resources in this region with the effect of high prices of oil and natural gas(Ogan,2006:110-111). There are privatization and business combinations in the world. However, Putin turned to some big energy actors, energy companies like Lukoil and Gazprom, for his foreign policy aims(Stulberg,2005:2). According to Putin, universal energy is the most important driving force for social and economic developments. 5. The Energy Policies of Russia On Caucasus, Khazar, and Black Sea Region In the Khazar basin, there are 75-233 billion barrels of oil and 293 trillion cubic natural gas reserve. So, this region is one of the most significant alternative regions to Basra region (Stulberg, 2005: 4-5). Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are in a good position in natural gas reserves, and Azerbaijan and Kazakstan are also in a good position in oil reserves. These states are good at handling, sales, and mobilization sectors; and this situation directs international policies. The most crucial aim of the Putin administration on Central Asia is the putting into effect of previous projects and treaties, which interest the Federation of Russia, and making major energy corridors on the North-South destination as well. Vladimir Putin thinks that this policy will prevent the alliance against Russia. Moreover, Russia is supporting Russian companies, and their investments in the Khazar basin, and this situation leads to them having a part in the region. This situation is giving Russia an opportunity to get suitable policies (Aras, 2011: 224-225). Putin tries to reach this region via Gazprom, and wants to add it to the Russian energy block in order to blockade the plans of EU countries in this region. In 2005, Putin obstructed the interventions of Kazakstan and Uzbekistan with the policy of passing natural gas of Central Asia from the territories of these two lands(Kamalov,2006:23-24). In addition, Russia is practicing different policies, especially for the two major rivals. These rivals are Iran and Turkmenistan. Russia made an agreement with Turkmenistan and became a cartel in the energy sector on the field (Akgül, 2007:136). Mehmet Enes Aşcı 100 6. The Energy Policies of Russia On Middle East The energy policies of Russia are to protect its national interests in the region of Middle East. In other words, the policies of Russia are not ideological policies. Vladimir Putin is eager to create new markets for Russian energy companies in the Middle East, and from this perspective, Russia continues to collaborate with Israel, especially in technology and energy. Furthermore, Russia is also in collaboration with Iran in nuclear energy arena (Akgül, 2007: 139). Under the Putin leadership, Russia started to give special importance to Israel. For instance, the amount of crude oil Israel gets from the commonwealth of independent states is about 88%. Another energy project Russia is planning in the Middle East is Blue Stream Project. For example, they want to enlarge the area of Blue Stream energy project to Israel and send Russian natural gas, and Azeri oil to Israel, passing the Red Sea, and the next destination is China by the Red Sea, and the other way the destination is Suez Canal to reach Southern Europe. The best partner of Russia in Middle East is Iran. Putin deals with the government of Iran in order to commercialize natural gas of Iran via Russian energy companies (Dugin, 2006:74) 7. The Relations Between Turkey and Russia On Energy Dimension If we summarize the energy situation of Turkey: Turkey is 73,5% dependent on especially primary energy sources to abroad. In the year of 2002, this rate was 67% and payment of energy import was 9.2 billion USD in the same year. In 2014, this number became 55 billion USD. In the energy sector, the biggest partner in dependency for Turkey is Russia. Turkey imports 98 % of its natural gas from foreign countries and also 55 % of this 98 % comes from Russia. In addition, the dependency rate of Turkey to Russia on petroleum and petroleum products is 16 % (Pamir,2015). In other words, the daily natural gas import capacity of Turkey is; from Russia: 42 million meter cubic via West Line, 48 million meter cubic via Blue Stream, from Iran: 29 million meter cubic, from Azerbaijan: 19 million meter cubic, from Nigeria and Algeria combined (LNG): 22 million meter cubic. These rates show that there is no other alternative oil and gas supplier instead of Russia in the short term for Turkey. On the other hand, 35% of coal import of Turkey comes from Russia too. In Turkey, the plan of Akkuyu Nuclear Energy Power Plant will be completely built by the Russians. This situation shows that Turkey is extremely dependent on Russia. In fact, because of the extreme dependence on just one country, this situation creates a risky policy in economic, security and foreign relations aspects. When Turkey is so deeply dependent to Russia in the energy sector, Russia is also dependent on Turkey especially on billions of dollars of payment as well. In other words, the payments of Turkey to get oil, natural gas, and coal are significant for the Russian economy. Besides, Turkey gets energy from Russia, and also Russia has a bilateral relation with Turkey as a result of energy sources. 8. Economical and Political Relations With Syria Syria is one of the crucial partners of Turkey in the Middle East region. Syria was a Sanjak of the Ottoman Empire up to World War-1. When Ottoman Empire was defeated by the French, British, and Russian troops, Syria got its freedom, but only for a short term. France took Syria from Ottoman Empire, and turned it into a colony like Lebanon (Moubayed, 2008). On the other hand, there are four different phases in bilateral relations between Turkey and Syria. These are deterioration relations (the mid-80s to 1998), gradual normalization relations (1998- 2003), accelerating into a movement toward amity and alliance (2003- 2010) and regression toward enmity over the Uprising in Syria starting in March 2011. If we compare the relations with this country, there is a similarity between 1990s and from 2011 to 2015. In other words, we can see there are conflicts and disagreements with Syria, especially on the political and economic perspectives. The uprising began in Syria in March of 2011, and this event started to change almost everything, especially in economy and the energy sector for this country. Syria is selling oil and natural gas to abroad like the other countries in the Middle East. However, the civil war has a huge impact on oil and natural gas supplied from the territory of The Energy Policies of Eu, Russia, Turkey And Syria 101 Syria, and this situation is creating much more economic difficulties, poverty, and political instability in the relations with neighbors, including Turkey (Moubayed, 2008). The civil war damages the energy sector in this country; especially the infrastructure, oil, and natural gas pipelines, and electricity transmission networks of Syria. In addition, western countries put economical sanctions against the regime of Assad, and this situation is bringing more difficulties, and effects on oil and gas supply to the European countries, and the political instability is creating a serious uncertainty for energy sector for the future plans of the Syrian government, and until now there has been no consensus between the regime and protestors in Syria. The effect of the civil war on the relations between Turkey and Syria is very bad. In other words, Erdoğan immediately cut the relations with Assad regime in 2011 and stopped import and export of goods with this country when the conflicts started in Syria. We need oil and natural gas in order to close energy deficit in Turkey, but we can not buy oil and gas from Syria because of the political problems and disagreements among Assad and Erdogan. The regime of Assad decided to stop selling fossil fuels to Turkey, and we lost Syrian market to sell our products in the region of Middle East. 9. Natural Energy Resources In Middle East Existing And Planning Projects The energy projects in the Middle East have strategic importance for US and Russia. In other words, there are different energy projects in this region which look suitable and good for the national interests of Russia and USA as well. Currently, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are the main actors in the Middle East. Indeed, Syria is demanding to become a transit country for energy lines, like Turkey. But, Syria did not get this chance because of the civil war in its territory since 2011. 10. The Project Of Iran Iraq And Syria On Energy Market In the Middle East, the most crucial and most contradictive energy project is Friendship Project, which belongs to the Tehran regime. This pipeline project covers three countries in the Middle East. These countries are Iran, Iraq, and Syria; and the cost of this project is 10 billion dollars. The expectations from Friendship Project 40 billion cbm, and the length is 6000 km. On the other hand, these three states signed an agreement with each other two years ago. However, nobody knows which way the Iranian natural gas is passing (Başlamış, 2013). According to Tehran Times Newspaper, the Iranian natural gas will pass from the territory of Iran, Iraq, Syria and then with the construction of new pipelines in Mediterranian Sea to Lebanon and then it will go to Greece as the last destination. But the European countries impose sanctions on Iran, and because of this situation, selling natural gas to Europe from Iran is not possible now. The leader of Syria, Assad is reluctant to add Saudi Arabia and Qatar to this Arabic Pipeline Project. So, he prefers another project, Islamic Pipeline Project with Iran. It means that Turkey will be out of this project and the natural gas route will not pass from Turkish territory. 11. Israel Energy Project Another energy project in the Middle East belongs to Israel. In Leviathan region in Israel, which is close to Mediterranian Sea, there is a large reserve of natural gas. In Leviathan, experts estimate that potential rate is 16 trillion cubic meters. In other words, almost 100 billion dollars worth of natural gas reserves exist in Leviathan. The question is, how the government of Israel will carry out this natural gas in order to sell it. There are two options in front of Israel. One route is that Israel can benefit from Mediterranian Sea with the new pipelines under the sea; with these pipelines natural gas can go to Turkey and then enter the market of EU countries. The second option is the territorial option. In other words, natural gas may pass Lebanon, Syria and then Turkey again. When we look at the position of Israel, they want to benefit from the Mediterranean Sea in order sell natural gas to the other countries because Assad does not want to collaborate with Israel. So, Israel is also reluctant working together with Assad regime. In 2011, Syrian government found a new natural gas area in the Homs region and this was a very significant development as well. The total natural gas reserve of Syria is 284 Billion cubic meters, and this new reserve adds at least 400 000 cubic meters reserve as well. Mehmet Enes Aşcı 102 12. Why Is Russia In Syria? The official authority of Russia announced that Russian military planes and soldiers in Syria and they are constructing new military bases in this country. After that, some questions emerged in people's minds. The questions like; "Why are the Russians in Syria?" "Whom will Russian troops strike in Syria?" We cannot explain the existence of the Russian soldiers in Syria for the protection of Assad regime or the battle among Russian people who are fighting with extremist groups in Syria, and enlarge its effect on Syria. The real reason is the location of Syria. Syria is the point of exit for the energy destinations, and also Russia wants to make an alliance with Iran and Iraq, who are under the occupation of ISIS. In December in 2013, the Russian company Soyuzneftegaz signed an agreement with the Syrian government. According to this agreement, this Russian company can perform searches, explorations, developments and productions. This treaty is valid for 25 years as well. Soyuzneftegaz got this opportunity, and this situation shows that Russia is eager to stay in Syria for a long time. The final aim of Russia is establishing its domination in Syria in order to block Saudi Arabia and Qatar's oil. Because Saudi Arabia and Qatar try to sell their oil to Europe like Russia, and they are in competition in this area. Another final aim of Russia is cooperating with Iran instead of competing with it for the European market (Varol,2015). Figure 3 SYRIAN PETROLEUM COMPANY The Energy Policies of Eu, Russia, Turkey And Syria 103 13. Why Does Russia Try To Capture Energy Geopolitics of Syria? The Russian economy depends on energy exportation, and the national economy of Russia is damaged and badly affected by the low oil prices. First of all, the oil prices should rise in order to benefit the Russian economy. On 30 September, the military operations of Russia became definite in Syria, and after that, the oil prices started to rise and reached 50 dollars. But then again it decreased and became almost 46 dollars because of Saudi Arabia and USA intervention. According to the reports of IMF, oil prices should be at least 60 dollars in 2016 in order not to shrink the Russian economy. Therefore, Russia creates a test area for itself with the goal of increasing petrol prices. However, the military operations of Russia in Syria do not affect oil prices so much, and the other partners of Russia such as Iran and Iraq suffer from this situation. Everyday, another crisis can happen in Syria. Firstly, Russia needs the increase in oil prices, and as you know, currently the global oil prices are under 50 dollars because of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is intentionally decreasing oil prices. Figure 4Source: Nasdaq,19 November 2015 http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=1m As a result, the most important reason for Russia is the energy issue, and that's why Russia does not want to lose Syria.They want to control all oil and gas energy lines in Syria. Russia is trying all possibilities to increase energy prices and on the other hand, ruin all plans of Saudi Arabia. For instance, the Russians are going to have the Chinese oil market. For the first time in May 2015, Russians sold oil to China, and the amount of this oil was much more than Saudi Arabia sold, and the Russians became the biggest rival for Saudis. Moreover, the energy treaties between Russia and China are still ongoing. On the other hand, if the sanctions on Iran are abolished by the Western states, the energy resources of Iran will start to look away in order to go to the European market. In here, there are two different options for energy http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=1m Mehmet Enes Aşcı 104 resources of Iran. The first route is benefiting from Turkish territory, and the other route is passing towards Iraq and Syria. Nowadays, Russia is planning to control the Syrian geopolitics with the cooperation of the countries with the biggest energy resources. The Russians are holding two energy cards with a very successful increase. First of all, if the oil of Kurdish, Iraq, Iran line comes to the Mediterranean Sea, the value of this oil should belong to Russia. Secondly, Russians abolish the possibility of Qatar's natural gas and transportation of it from Syria (Özdemir, 2015). 14. Economic Effects of the Petrol Dependency of Turkey The existence of the energy sector is crucial for countries. The increase in petrol and natural gas prices in countries, whose manufacturing industry depends on petrol, has adverse effects on the foreign trade and production capacity of the country. The energy dependence rate of Turkey is over 50%, and energy import is a significant factor in the current account deficit. A significant portion of the energy need is related to oil products. Petrol and petroleum products are used in many sectors from production to consumption. Since petroleum reserves of Turkey are limited, as reserve amount decreases, foreign dependency on petroleum gradually increases. When petroleum import rate reaches 10% within the total import, these years may be a preview of crisis years. Within the import of Turkey, crude oil has been around 6% in the last few years. The change of this situation can happen in two ways. The first is the decrease in the petroleum dependency of the country; the second is shifting the importation of products with high added value. Petrol dependency increases even more with the energy demand created by the economic growth. Political developments in petrol-producing countries also cause changes in petrol prices. This situation can cause adverse changes as far as global economic effects. Turkey also gets considerably affected by these changes. As a result of the petrol dependency of Turkey, changes in petrol prices have various effects on Turkey’s economy. These effects can be explained as: * Price increases of petrol cause increase in costs as basic production input or decrease in petrol use and a decline in production as a result. * The increase in petrol prices affect foreign trade limits and therefore cause budget deficits. This situation causes decreases in the purchasing power and welfare level of the country. * Increases in petrol prices also increase money demand. On the other hand, the inability of monetary authorities to offer sufficient liquidity causes an increase in interest rates and as a result, it negatively affects economic growth. * Increase in petrol prices also causes an increase in inflation. Increases in petrol prices as a crucial cost element causes an increase in general price levels on the one hand, and constriction in non-petrol demands and investments creates a public deficit as tax income decreases and increases interest rates on the other hand. * Increases in petrol prices creates changes in production structure. If petrol prices stay on high levels for long durations, this situation also negatively affects other sectors, which use petrol-based production methods, and causes an increase in general level of prices and creates inflation increase. As is seen, petrol dependency causes many negativities on economic balance. Turkey needs to work on reducing its petrol dependency, and it needs to turn towards alternative pursuits. 15. Conclusion Energy is a decisive life source in our age. We can understand that energy resources have a vital and significant role in the world. States are in a transition period to acquire and control energy resources; they may even take the risk of fighting, conflict, and dissent to get energy resources. Energy resources are limited in the world, and the world population is always getting higher and higher. Therefore, countries need more energy, and they gradually need to use more and more limited energy sources. These are the basic factors in the energy arena. For this reason, countries started to enable their rules of law in order to benefit from and play for the right energy card at the same time. In other words, these states try to take precautions in order to guarantee their future in the energy sector as well. The Energy Policies of Eu, Russia, Turkey And Syria 105 In the universal energy market, the producers, transit countries and big consumers have an important strategic situation as well. Nowadays, the regions of Middle East, Central Asia, and Khazar region countries have opportunities especially in the supply of oil and natural gas. The countries in the Middle East and the Central Asia are still going to keep their positions in the long term. For this reason, the regions of Middle East, Central Asia, and Khazar are at the center of attention especially for the supply of oil and natural gas. On the other hand, petroleum search, production, transport is performed in the international market, and there are deep and powerful conflicts between rivals in the international market, especially regional and global arena. EU countries try to create new political strategies in order to get more energy for their people and their daily lives because EU countries are in a speedy enlargement process. So, the states of EU are working on new political and economic strategies to get oil and natural gas from Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa via pipelines as well. Russia is using its energy advantage as a political weapon as an actor in the universal energy market. Thus, Russia is increasing its effect on the countries that depend on him and it is making bilateral treaties with the states of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Khazakistan in order to abolish them as alternative actors in the market at the same time. On the other hand, Iran has 16% of universal gas reserves. However, they need a market to sell their natural gas, and Turkey is in a crucial position to do that. Turkey has a role of transporting energy resources from the Middle East, Central Asia and Khazar regions as a transit country. 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