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International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 7 • Issue 2 • 2017296

International Journal of Energy Economics and 
Policy

ISSN: 2146-4553

available at http: www.econjournals.com

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2017, 7(2), 296-303.

Issues for Long-range Projection of International Energy 
Markets through the Prism of Sustainable Development

Igbal Guliyev1*, Igor Litvinyuk2

1International Institute of Energy Policy and Diplomacy, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia, 2Centre for Strategic Research and Geopolitics in Energy, International 
Institute of Energy Policy and Diplomacy, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia. *Email: guliyev@miep-mgimo.ru

ABSTRACT

Modern energy system development model requires incorporation of not only demand and supply sides of energy markets, but also reference of new 
technologies deployment throughout the whole value chain, governmental policies in place, and other non-market indicators that, however, provide 
for the whole market equilibration by indirect energy resources price regulation. Consequently, overcoming the traditional framework is getting basic 
precondition for achieving sustainable development in the energy sector, covering the whole energy system for research purposes due to global and 
coherent transition from forecasting of energy development to constructing of new alternatives and creating a new world which meet the goals of 
sustainable development. The next step will be a creation of ways of their achievement, and management systems, which allows countries, regions 
and the whole world to stay on that pathway. The article comes up with suggestions on making alterations to the current practice of energy systems 
forecasting process.

Keywords: Scenarios, Sustainable Development, International Relations, Global Energy Markets 
JEL Classifications: O13, P28, Q47, Y3

1. INTRODUCTION

The Russian Federation is one of the largest international energy 
market players. Energy sector is vital for the Russian economy, 
and its development dynamics to a large extent affects economic 
sustainability. In this regard, development of scenario for world 
energy markets development in a long-term perspective proves 
to be essential. Being in the framework of recent geoeconomic 
and geopolitical processes affecting national economies, it 
should incorporate analysis of a wide range of specific factors 
that underpin energy markets development, and capture trends 
of sustainable development policies implemented in national 
legislation systems. The primary objective of such exercise is to 
evaluate trends in world energy markets development and capture 
country-specific instruments that might be employed for securing 
economic sustainability. With a focus on the Russian perspective, 
that requires identification, classification and assessment of factors 
currently determining the modes of operation of Russian energy 

market and its interplay with international markets, as well as 
analysis of effectiveness of various policy options adopted in 
support to sustainability.

The energy markets forecasting is important to adapt economic 
growth trajectories that remain in line with sustainability 
principles, and allow for securing sustainable development 
of national economy. It is worth mentioning that there is a 
contradiction concerning forecasting methods, instruments 
and approaches. On the one hand, the range of organizations 
forecast energy systems development, on the other hand – the 
forecasting is archaic. It is mostly bound to using simple and 
inadequate forecasting methods, which appear to be mechanistic 
procedures neglecting qualitative market developments. At the 
same time, significant developments have occurred forming the 
new global geo-economic view. Nowadays, the most complex 
objective is to establish a new concept described by quantitative 
indicators.



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International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 7 • Issue 2 • 2017 297

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

Overview of the existing literature suggests that the existing 
evaluations of energy resources demand in the mid and long-term 
perspective presented by specialized international organizations 
are mainly based on either extrapolation of present trends, 
without giving due consideration to different regional markets 
characteristics, or reflect particular interest of those providing 
these forecasts (Greene, 2001). Moreover, the forecasts have 
different aggregation by countries, which implies methodological 
complications while assessing energy system development issues 
on regional and global scale.

The initial evaluation of scenarios gives a clear understanding that 
fundamentally the results of each scenario are merely based on 
presumptions, expert opinions and certain preconditions, which 
the developers are guided by. It stipulates that there is no single 
pair of forecasts that may be characterized by similar quantitative 
estimation indicators. Nevertheless, qualitative estimations 
frequently coincide with each other, though there is no single 
combination reported.

Multiple global energy system development simulation results 
are primarily built upon a set of input data describing the current 
state of energy system, and their further prioritization with 
consideration of energy paradigm in a certain country (region, 
company). Yet, various data analysis approaches have a common 
goal of establishing a starting point for further analysis, which, in 
fact, are “forecasting” or “scenario-building.”

It is obvious that the forecasting process implies achieving a 
particular state of the energy system based on the input value 
and change of indicators over time, as well as on a number of 
assumptions. The methodological approach for such modeling is 
based on the analysis starting from the lower levels of hierarchy 
(bottom-up approach). The scenario building process, in turn, 
includes a range of possible ways for further development and, 
therefore, multiple system states in the future, developed through 
top-down analysis. The latter is based on developing hypotheses 
and establishing the desired parameters and indicator values, with 
the subsequent development measures on how to achieve a certain 
state of energy system.

3. MODERN ENERGY SYSTEM 
MODELLING APPROACHES

Generally based on the individual goals, modeling is carried out by 
using a range of economic-mathematical models, taking into the 
account the list of indicators which are often similar with respect 
to their qualitative interpretation but with different quantitative 
estimation, as well as evaluation of their interplay and cross-factor 
correlation. Thus, a number of models include unique parameters, 
which are only necessary to realize a specific research task. 
Nowadays there are more than 50 models, developed by various 
specialized organizations and energy companies and they enable 
energy system development forecasting at global, regional and 
national levels (Gabrial and McGlade, 2012; Bhattacharyya and 

Timilsina, 2009). Models are regularly reviewed, supplemented by 
actual data and improved in order to ensure the most reliable results 
according to the developers. It is noteworthy that mathematical 
models are not used by private oil and gas companies which 
develop their own forecasts based on internal assessments and 
subjective assumptions regarding industrial development trends 
emerging on energy market in the future based on the investment 
climate, technology development, economic, environmental and 
geopolitical situation.

Among the foreign organizations absolute leaders are International 
Energy Agency and World Energy Council that form a global vision 
of energy development. At the same time, there is an extensive 
network of university research centers and laboratories involved 
in the energy development prospects. Among them it is worth to 
mention the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable 
Energy Laboratory, Paul Scherrer Institute (Switzerland), Duke 
University (USA), Cambridge Econometrics (UK), National 
Technical University of Athens (Greece), Finland Futures Research 
Centre (Finland), International Institute for Applied Systems 
Analysis (Austria) and others. Russian Academy of Science and the 
Russian Government Analytical Centre are the ones working in the 
sphere of forecasting of global energy tendencies (Makarov et al., 
2013; Benichou and Mayr, 2014; Densing et al., 2013). In addition, 
such forecasts are done by the Russian and foreign companies in the 
fuel and energy complex, including LUKOIL, BP, Eni, ExxonMobil, 
Shell, Statoil and others. At the same time, fundamentally the results 
are based only on expert opinion and assumptions, by which certain 
developers are guided. It should be emphasized that the forecasts are 
based on multiple forecast general methods, models and approaches. 
The list of common predictions including the description of their 
characteristics is presented in Table 1 (Jose and Assis, 2015).

In addition to different approaches applied to the outlooks 
development, every organization focuses on its particular 
prioritized sphere. Apart from this, different interpretations of 
the term “sustainable development” imply that in fact data is 
not comparable. This study deals with 98 matching quantitative 
indicators examined in the outlooks, which are classified by 11 
topic groups stated below: Access to modern energy; energy 
efficiency; energy production; energy security; environment; final 
energy consumption; final energy supply; global context; installed 
generation capacity; primary energy resources; technology. The 
data analysis allows demonstrating the indicator groups covered 
by organizations (Figure 1).

A detailed assessment of particularities of each of the energy 
development outlooks requires profound research, as each 
organization uses a certain model and applies it to build several 
scenarios, which mainly differ by degree of consistency between 
national economic and political measures aiming to achieve 
sustainable energy, as well as technological development 
incentives and changes in models of consumers’ economic 
behavior (industry, transport sector and households) (Salygin and 
Litvinyuk, 2016).

Nowadays, a significant interest is demonstrated in rethinking 
the very energy system structure considering global adoption 



Guliyev and Litvinyuk: Issues for Long-range Projection of International Energy Markets through the Prism of Sustainable Development

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 7 • Issue 2 • 2017298

of sustainable development concept, which subsequently may 
contribute to gradual change in the energy paradigm. However, 
Russian scientific centers are currently mainly guided by 
traditional views on the energy development.

Existing methods of forecasting of global energy development 
mainly represent stochastic models of economic-mathematical 
analysis. At the same time, a modern energy development model 
requires consideration of not only of supply and demand in energy 
markets, but also the results of deployment of modern technologies 
in the industry within the value chain, the current state energy 
policy and other non-market values, which, however, secure 
market equilibrium through indirect regulation of energy prices.

The architecture of global energy system remains one of the most 
controversial issues. The development of potentially possible 
ways for energy development, which is both a cause and a 
solution for overcoming global challenges, will be able to assist 
in the identification of consequences of their implementation and 
improvement of validity of taken decisions.

In order to identify global trends of energy development and 
predict its future state a number of specialized international 
organizations, research institutes and industry experts direct 
their efforts to the search for the key factors and driving forces 
characterizing the dynamics and direction of global energy 
system development. They monitor and analyze quantitative 
and qualitative assessment of global energy system development 
indicators, ensure the alignment of the global energy picture at a 
time in the future.

As for the indicators classification, their significant variation by 
covered scope is to be mentioned. The greatest number of matching 
indicators is encountered in the global context, which underlines 
global economic growth, population growth, poverty reduction 
as well as ongoing role of fossil fuels as the foundation of the 
most countries’ energy mix. Ongoing changes of energy markets 
currently hold orientation towards the Asian region, which already 
has high demand for energy due to rapid economic development 
(Belogoryev et al., 2011).

Consensus among outlooks is also observed in terms of the 
evident fact that all kinds of energy resources suffice to meet 
the needs of the next generations, which is basic conception of 
sustainable development in terms of energy. Depletion of fossil 
fuels is not subject of the research, however, the significance 
of conventional fuel reserves threat is stressed in the future. 

Table 1: World’s most advanced models for energy development forecasting
Parameter MARKAL WEM PRIMES SCANER POLES NEMS
Approach Bottom up Bottom up, Top 

down
Top down Bottom up, Top down Bottom up, Top down Bottom up, Top down

Coverage WEC, 2013 OPEC, 2014
EIA, 2014

EU, 2013 ERI, 2013 EU, 2003 EIA, 2014

Time horizon Over 80 years 25 years 35 years Over 15 years Over 25 years Over 25 years
Step 10 years 5 years 5 years 5 years 10 years 10 years
Regional 
coverage

World, 8 regions World, 17 regions, 
3 regional grouping, 
12 countries

World, 9 regions, 
7 subregional 
grouping, 5 special 
countries grouping

World, 62 influential 
countries, 83 territorial 
entities of the Russian 
Federation

World, 7 regions, 
3 subregional grouping

National level (USA) 

Value chain Production, 
transportation, 
distribution, 
consumption, 
CO2 emissions

Production, 
distribution, 
consumption, 
pollution emissions

Investments, 
production, 
transportation, 
distribution, 
consumption, 
pollution emissions

Investments, 
production, 
transportation, 
consumption, CO2 
emissions

Production, distribution, 
consumption, CO2 
emissions

Production, 
transportation, 
distribution, 
consumption, 
pollution emissions

Amount of 
the considered 
energy source 

15, with 
subsequent 
aggregation 
into 7 groups 
according to 
methodology

7 11 Able to incorporate 
over 20 sources

12 7 groups (no reliable 
data on the structure)

WEC: World Energy Council, OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, EU: European Union

Figure 1: Scope of the indicator groups covered by World Energy 
Council, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 
International Energy Agency according to the classification



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International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 7 • Issue 2 • 2017 299

Moreover, estimations are remarkably diverged considering 
different views of experts regarding the current development 
tendencies. Such diversions imply the fact that references to a 
certain scenario are quite unfounded. In order to use calculated 
indicators for energy markets, more calculations are to be 
processed and practically implemented scenarios are to be taken 
into account.

World-widely used energy development models including regional 
integrations analysis along with considered indicators include 
thousands of endogenous variables. Since these sets of variables 
are often different by structure, the question arises whether it is 
worth developing new models, which could potentially integrate 
a wider range of indicators providing better representation and 
interconnection.

Thus, the key factor to achieve sustainable energy development 
is to holistically overcome traditional framework regulating the 
scope for energy system analysis, through coordinated transition 
from “forecasting” of energy systems development to “scenario 
building.” Considering insufficient transparency applied for 
modeling methodologies, it is critically important to ensure 
interconnection between specific international organizations, 
governments, research centers and energy companies in order 
to develop coordinated approaches to the problems of energy 
system modeling, and instruments allowing to balance the interests 
of the parties, in energy, economy, social aspects, geopolitics, 
environment and technological development.

4. SUGGESTED METHODOLOGICAL 
CHANGE IN APPROACH TO ENERGY 

SYSTEM MODELLING

It is impossible to predict the future. However, it is quite 
an affordable aim to anticipate the trends in global energy 
development. Is it possible to achieve the goals of sustainable 
development or to coordinate the efforts of every country in 
terms of climate change? What will be the development of 
energy technologies? Will their application be economically 
viable, founded and world-widely used? How the global energy 
mix will look like in the future? Will renewable energy become 
the global solution? How will the state policy be pursued in 
terms of energy subsidies and tariffs? For these and related 
questions to be answered, it is necessary to profoundly analyze 
indicators, identify interlinkages between the factors, define 
the impact of national energy policies on regional and global 
development, and evaluate changes in consumers’ market 
behavior. Key issues for energy system forecasts in terms of 
sustainable development along with the relevant factors and 
possible impact of these factors on further energy system 
development are demonstrated in Table 2 (Guliyev, 2012; 
Makarov et al., 2013; Elzinga and Litvinyuk, 2015; Karjalainen 
et al., 2014; Mai et al., 2013).

Also, factors that can be used as describing characteristics of the 
future international economic relations systems classified by three 
groups: Macroeconomic, mesoeconomic and microeconomic. 

These levels are essential for energy forecasts. The list of these 
factors is stated in Table 3.

The scope of the above research allows exposing certain strengths 
and weaknesses as well as opportunities and threats for sustainable 
energy development scenario building exercise, and allows 
conducting strengths, weaknesses opportunities, threats - analysis 
presented in Table 4.

5. CONCLUSION

The broad sense of the sustainability concept is reflected in 
national and regional energy strategies, which leads to varying 
approaches and results. Governments of certain states define 
consistent energy generation as complete refusal of exhaustible 
energy resources and full switch to the use of renewable 
resources in the short-run where greenhouse gas emission 
reduction is an integral part. Representatives of other countries 
stress the necessity to increase energy efficiency and make 
energy sources available to the poor. While the identification of 
priorities concerning conservation of climate is underway, certain 
countries are not ready to stop using exhaustible energy resources 
concentrating on carbon dioxide emission reduction. Every state 
follows its energy strategy, based on its own priorities and views 
regarding considered issues such as climate change mitigation, 
sustainable development, environmental protection, poverty 
reduction, improvement of the quality of life, etc. (Gabrial and 
McGlade, 2012).

Sustainable development of the whole energy system in the 
future is considered to be a basic element, which is supposed 
to combine ecological, economic and social aspects. Such 
system will include every aspect of energy system development 
according to national requirements and problems including 
climate change and use of natural resources, job creation and 
energy security.

It seems important to define the concept of sustainability with 
respect to energy, both in the context of mitigating negative 
environmental effects and it the context of ensuring the security 
of energy system for sustainable economic development.

Within the scope of this project it would be possible to develop 
methodology and tools for conducting assessment of global 
energy development scenarios, systematic research of various 
forecasts, comparison of existing (reference) and newly developed 
scenarios, which will provide an opportunity to conduct research 
of alternate strategic opportunities and priorities for achieving the 
goals of sustainable development in energy sector. In the project 
it is intended to develop sustainable development indicators for 
energy sector. The development will be based on the conceptual 
approach “purpose-objectives-indicators” embodied in Sustainable 
Development Goals adopted at the UN in September 2016 for all 
countries worldwide for the period of 2016-2030. Certain goals 
are connected to energy development either directly or implicitly. 
The analysis of the restrictions for the energy sector due to the 
adoption by Russia of the Paris climate agreement will be also 



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International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 7 • Issue 2 • 2017300

Table 2: Key topics to forecast the energy systems development under sustainable development
Topic Influenced factors Possible factors’ influence on energy system development
Consumer energy needs in the 
period ahead. Economic choice 
criteria for consumers 

Dependency factor 
of the electrical grid 
consumption

Energy efficiency 

Electricity price, grid parity
Availability or deficit of electricity 
Development of electricity infrastructure 
Individual generation technology

Population growth Energy safety in a bread sense (energy importers and exporters positions)
Growth of middle class 
Lack of knowledge and skills 
Consumption pattern modification

Quality of energy service Distributed generation 
Development of energy service companies
Evolvement of “client-first” approach
Energy distribution and consumption

Legal framework Trade development via law incentives 
Legislation development in developing countries
Legislation development including ecological principles 
Decentralization, liberalization, deregulation

Disruptive technologies, which 
provide the electric generation 
structure modification

Business model Consumer oriented commercial model
Price of the new technologies model 
Driver for disruptive technologies model (objective necessity for the 
“survival” goals or the innovation solution realization) 
Technical solutions model 
Commercial model modification from “based on the technology 
development level” to “based on the market conditions”
Innovation technologies implementation opportunity

Basic energy resources 
structure for electricity 
generation

Modification of electric generation technologies

Fuel energy production growth
Energy consumption trends
Role of energy resources in the country’s development
Local component requirements

Energy resources supply Energy interconnectivity
Supply chain limits
Price of fossil fuels
System risks (cross-border infrastructure projects in energy)

New technologies 
implementation 
(key energy markets)

Role of the selected countries’ energy markets in the global context

Consistent development of technology along with technological break 
thoughts
The balance between innovations and market demand
Traditional technical solutions, that manage energy based on culture of 
energy consumption
Development of energy storage
Business struggle between traditional energy and renewable source 
energy 
Results of technical and economical study for feasibility of integration of 
innovative technologies

Role of 
telecommunications and 
media in energy sector

Telecommunication technologies development

Commercial models in the sector
Strategy plan for keeping the public informed
Technological improvement opportunities 
Role of telecommunication sector in energy management 

Education Poverty problem
Education improvement
Ability to follow technology development
Human factor and its characteristic
Labor capacity 

(Contd...)



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International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 7 • Issue 2 • 2017 301

Topic Influenced factors Possible factors’ influence on energy system development
Rhetoric of international 
negotiating process 

Cooperative solutions development and coordinated actions 
implementation 
Institutional failures
Motivation for decision makers
Public awareness drivers in the world key energy markets
Partnership and communication between government and business

National industrial 
policies

Influence of legislation and politics on technology and business

Decentralized electricity generation
Renewable energy facilities as major companies’ assets
Incorporation of environmental element and its prioritization into national 
policies

Common energy market. 
Architecture and target model of 
regional electric energy markets. 
Price convergence of energy

Energy service 
accessibility 

Technological transfer

New sources of energy
Labor integration
Energy price (“affordability”)
Role of nongovernmental agencies and business sector
Decentralized generation, local power grids
Meaning of the energy for humanity in general

Living standards
Common energy system 
or isolated national 
energy systems 

Global climate 
agreements 

Obligations, contracted by the poorest countries

Correspondence of political efforts to real requests of consumers
Fair energy price
Common electric energy market 
Regional energy market target model (trade, energy balance, 
coordination)
Price of greenhouse gases emissions
Development and implementation of commercial models based on 
sustainable development principles
Rhetoric change of the negotiation process including questions of 
achieving sustainable development goals at the global level

Table 2: (Continued)

Characteristics Macroeconomics Mesoeconomics Microeconomics
Key unknown 
factors

Global economic environment
Objectives coordination of universal access to 
energy sources with actions to combat climate 
change

Optimal generation structure 
based on balance of renewable 
and conventional energy
Achieving sustainable 
development goals on national 
levels

Key participants Major states (population, production levels, 
energy consumption)

ASEAN member states

Sustainability of energy products export from 
major energy-exporting countries
Issues of water-energy-food nexus
Economic availability of new energy sources 
(development of technologies)
Demographics and energy consumption growth

Uncertainty with respect to the development of small countries
Geopolitical and economic sustainability of world’s largest economies

Deployment of available 
(including economically) energy technologies

Centralized or distributed generation

Interplay between telecommunication and energy 
(remote control of networks, consumption 
control)

Local energy systems

Limited resources 
(including water-energy-food nexus)

Water supply deficit

Energy storage technologies and their availability 
for end-users

Labor efficiency

Table 3: Descriptive characteristics of international economic relations (by levels of impact) for the purpose of energy 
development forecasting

(Contd...)



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International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 7 • Issue 2 • 2017302

Characteristics Macroeconomics Mesoeconomics Microeconomics
The role of consumers in creating energy systems, 
which meet their demand

Availability and transparency of information sources

Major factors International cooperation on challenges concerning measures to combat climate change
Alteration of traditional business model 

Social request concerning environmental quality
Potential for atomic energy industry development

Pre-defined 
elements

Fossil fuels supplies will retain their role in 
consumption pattern 
Global leadership of certain states with respect to environment-oriented issues and actions mitigating the effects of climate 
change

Social aspects Urban population increase Population increase
Educational level

Social inequality and its effects on economic growth
Healthcare (connection to ecological issues)

Economic 
aspects

Quality of life Diversion in economic growth rate 
on the sub-regional level might 
exert pressure on the relations 
between countries

Ecological 
aspects

Issues of pollutant emissions Development of pollutant capture 
and sequestration technologies

Political 
(geopolitical) 
and legal 
aspects

Governmental influence on economic and political 
situation in other states
Development of technical regulations, rules and 
standards

Political support of standards 
harmonization process

Practical implementation of 
the developed standards

Technological 
aspects

Role of states in achieving goal to establish a sustainable energy system

Table 4: SWOT‑analysis of factors that influence energy development
Strengths Weaknesses
Significant financial resources
High level of education, knowledge and skills
Access to basic energy technologies at fair price
Potential for renewable energy development
Regional cooperation

More of a political dialogue rather than actual interest of states
“Developed states forgot how to struggle against socio-economic 
difficulties” (Gurtner, 2009)
Lack of coordination at interstate level
Varying goals and priorities of states (especially with respect to energy security)
Low level of energy efficiency in certain parts of the world and inability to 
increase it (Tromop et al., 2015)

Opportunities Threats
Promotion of cooperation on common issues
Technological progress
Harmonization of standards
Increase in existing assets’ energy efficiency
Use of low-cost energy sources technologies
Investments in energy infrastructure, ensuring its flexibility
Investments in energy efficiency
Investments in renewable energy
Global energy security system
Exchange of experience and best practices at a country and 
company levels
Relations to facilitate the assurance of non-confrontational 
coexistence

Absence of shared vision of the development strategy on the regional level, 
unrealized gains
Varying opinions and interpretations of the term “sustainability” by the states, 
which leads to non-compliance of national policies
Conflict of interests
Low efficiency of reorganization due to human factor

SWOT: Strengths, weaknesses opportunities, threats

Table 3: (Continued)

carried out. Based on the outcomes, a new forecasting method of 
energy markets development will be developed, considering geo-
economic, geopolitical and geo-ecological processes. According 
to the new forecasting, practical recommendations concerning the 
development of concept for transition to sustainable development 
will be proposed.

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