. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 10 • Issue 1 • 2020 471 International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ISSN: 2146-4553 available at http: www.econjournals.com International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2020, 10(1), 471-480. Crude Oil Option Market Parameters and Their Impact on the Cost of Hedging by Long Strap Strategy Bartosz Łamasz*, Natalia Iwaszczuk AGH University of Science and Technology, Poland. *Email: blamasz@zarz.agh.edu.pl Received: 22 August 2019 Accepted: 02 November 2019 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8613 ABSTRACT This study aims to examine the impact of selected market parameters of the European crude oil options on the hedging costs and break-even points (BEPs) in the long strap strategy. The paper analyses the impact of the following market parameters: Volatility and the future price of crude oil, the strike price and time to expiration. The theoretical aspect consisted in using the black model to calculate the value of the option price and the long strap strategy BEP in the condition of ever-changing market parameters. These calculations, by determining implied volatilities of the options, have been adapted to the actual data from the exchange market for the options on WTI futures contract. It was made possible owing to the quik strike platform made available by a CME group exchange. To obtain information about the impact of volatility, time and price of futures on the costs of hedging and BEPs in the long strap strategy, the authors calculated the Greeks (delta, gamma, vega and theta) for the crude oil options. Having done that, not only could they determine the direction but also the power of impact that the parameters had on the final results in the long strap strategy. Keywords: Commodity Options, Crude Oil Price Risk, Long Strap Option Strategy JEL Classifications: G13, G32 1. INTRODUCTION In the era of progressive globalisation, which, among others, results in faster information exchange, market risk, understood as price risk, plays an increasingly important role. The news of economic events is reflected in price fluctuations of financial and non-financial assets. Such an issue can be particularly seen in the commodity market and it has significant consequences for both producers and consumers. Crude oil undoubtedly belongs to the group of raw materials that are of great importance for the global economy, as it is a raw material which has been an essential energy source in the world for many years. Currently, about 1/3 of primary energy is produced due to the process of oil crude refining. However, there are two basic restrictions regarding the increase in world oil consumption. First of all, it is non-renewable energy source, which means that its resources will run out in the future. Secondly, oil deposits are unevenly distributed around the world and their largest proven reserves are situated in such countries as: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Libya, Venezuela and Russia. Some of these countries cannot be classified as economically and politically stable. Moreover, the small number of oil suppliers (especially in the future) is the reason to consider this market oligopolistic. Accordingly, there is high probability of disturbing the supply of this raw material, which is frequently reflected in significant price fluctuations. Price fluctuations are particularly important for oil producers, as they largely determine the state of the economy of these countries. A prominent example of a country that is dependent on oil crude market is Russia, where export of this raw material and its products constitutes more than a half of Russia’s total export (in 2017 it was 60% of total export). Hence, it is claimed that in the long term, fluctuations in world oil prices may have a destructive effect on the stability of the oil industry This Journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License Łamasz and Iwaszczuk: Crude Oil Option Market Parameters and Their Impact on the Cost of Hedging by Long Strap Strategy International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 10 • Issue 1 • 2020472 in this country. Chikunov et al. (2019) emphasise that there is a strong need to develop scientific approaches which may lead to the evaluation and diagnosis of financial risk in Russian oil sector. On the other hand, Arour et al. (2011) and Khamis et al. (2018) revealed that there is a significant impact of oil price fluctuations on the stock market at Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, KSA, Bahrain, UAE). Tabash and Khan (2018) showed a strong interdependence between crude oil price volatility and the gross domestic product of UEA and Saudi Arabia. The impact of oil prices on the economy of Saudi Arabia was also studied by Foudeh (2017). Also, oil prices fluctuations significantly influence the economic situation of countries that import large quantities of this raw material. These mostly include developing Asian countries, such as China and India. The consequences of oil price fluctuations can be noticed in some of the industries of the above-mentioned countries, as they determine the costs of production. For instance, this appears in the aviation sector. Kathiravan et al. (2019) showed that crude oil price fluctuations (WTI, Brent, Dubai) between 2007 and 2018 had a significant impact on return rates on shares of companies involved in the aviation sector in India. Additionally, changes in crude oil price affect the economic activity of both, developing and developed countries (Cunado and Perez de Garcia, 2005; Hamilton, 2003; Edelstein and Kilian, 2009). Crude oil prices also affect such aspects of the economy as: the market value of crude oil companies, the inflation rate in oil importing countries, as well as the price of alternative energy sources (An et al., 2019). Following that, it is of crucial importance to search for the hedging methods that may help to avoid negative consequences of the changes of crude oil price on the economy of countries and individual enterprises, especially the refinery sector. This paper focuses on the commodity (crude oil) options as well as on an option strategy structured with the derivatives. The long strap strategy discussed in the paper, when appropriate used, offers the opportunity of hedging effectively against the risk of crude oil price fluctuation. One of the objectives of the paper is to present the method for structuring the above-mentioned strategy as well as show some patterns for calculating the final result of its application. In addition, for the effective application of the long strap strategy, it is essential to have the skills sufficient to set out successfully the strategy break-even and stop-loss points. These numbers are strongly correlated with the price of the commodity options, which is why more light should be shed on the option pricing model. To this end, the authors decided to use the Black’s model. All the calculations made in the paper are referred to the commodity options in which the price of WTI oil futures contracts (traded on the NYMEX) is the underlying instrument. To determine the implied volatility of options other than ATM (at-the-money), the quikstrike platform available on the CME group website was also used for calculations. The calculated option premiums (option prices) were used to calculate the costs of hedging and break-even points (BEPs) in the long strap strategy and analyse their response to changing values of selected market parameter, which was the purpose of this paper. A more precise determination of the power of impact of these parameters was possible through meticulous calculation and analysis of four Greeks: Delta, gamma, vega and theta. They provided some information about the change in the cost of hedging in the long strap strategy when changing a selected market parameter by a unit. Practical application of the Greeks is manifested in supporting decisions of price risk managers. By calculating the Greeks, they can adjust their option parameters and strategies to the expected directions of changes in the commodity prices. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides a literature review, in section 3 the construction of long strap strategy is presented. Section 4 discusses the used method and data of the study and final results is presented in sector 5. Finally, section 6 concludes the research paper. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW Options, as derivative instruments with non-symmetric risk distribution, may be used by market participants in many different ways. Speculators trade options to profit from drops, rises or stagnation in prices of the underlying instrument. On the other side of the market there are hedgers, who consider options as tools to protect them against the risk of price fluctuation in financial assets (e.g., stock, bonds, currency exchange rates) or commodities (gold, oil, gas). However, each option market participant tends to focus on two key issues: the price of the base instrument on the last trading day (contract expiration day) and the option price. While the first one is unpredictable and may fluctuate freely in the future, the option price is already known on the date of taking a position in an option contract. This value is the key from the point of view of a success of followed option strategies created by short or long positions in different options. Calculation of the value of an option (i.e. the option price or option’s premium) is the most complicated process, as one may see by comparing valuation methods applied for different types of derivatives. In a nutshell, a valuation of these derivatives is a search for answers to the question: how much should a buyer of an option pay for the option for the price to be fair1 for each party? The issue is rather complex as it requires setting the value of an option when bought (or sold). In turn, the value should counterbalance the payout to which the option buyer is entitled at a certain moment in the future i.e., on the last trading day. Consequently, many scholars tried to find the most effective options pricing model (2-1) and understand the relationship between market parameters and option’s premium (2-2). 2.1. Option Pricing The first attempts at valuating options date to the turn of 19th and 20th century. They are deemed modelled after Louis Bachelier’s doctoral thesis of 1900. The thesis focused also on modelling stock prices and, according to Bachelier, the prices were to move according to the arithmetic Brownian motion. Many years later, in 1960, several papers were published that pushed forward the search for option valuation models. They mostly applied to stock 1 “Fair price” is a price which does not open the door to a potential arbitration on the market. Łamasz and Iwaszczuk: Crude Oil Option Market Parameters and Their Impact on the Cost of Hedging by Long Strap Strategy International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 10 • Issue 1 • 2020 473 options. The most important papers devoted to the issue were written by J. Boness and P. Samuelson (Smithson, 1998). However, the work by Black and Scholes published in 1973 is considered the breakthrough in the search for the model to estimate the option price. They presented a model valuating the European call option in which underlying asset was a dividend-free stock. The solution presented by Black and Scholes is based, as initially assumed, on the structure of a risk-free portfolio, using European options (Black and Scholes, 1973). The model has quickly gained popularity and the scientific circles made regular attempts at its improvement. In consequence, as early as 1973, Merton, using Black and Scholes’s line of thinking as the basis, developed a model valuating the European call option in which the underlying asset was a stock with a fixed dividend payable before the expiry date of the option (Merton, 1973). Continued efforts to improve the option pricing model and expand it by adding more types of underlying assets have led to the discovery of a method for valuating of commodity derivatives. It happened as early as in 1976 and the discovery was made by Black. Also note that the solution presented by Black applied not only to valuation of European commodity options but also to futures and forwards for commodities (Black, 1976). Apart from the European commodity options, valuation of American options remains important, as their holders have the right to exercise them on any day before their expiration days. Similarly, to the European options, the options are traded on commodity exchanges for raw materials and energy such as NYMEX or ICE and are the most popular among participants of the exchanges. The leading method used to valuate the American option is the analytical approximation method combining solutions proposed in numerical models (including Black’s model) and analytical models (such as binominal model (Cox, 1979)). Many research papers describing different approaches to the valuation of the options have been written. One of the first was the solution proposed by Barone-Adasi and Whaley (1987). In reference to Whaley’s concepts (1986), they developed both the spot price model to valuate commodity options as well as options for commodity future contracts. In their study, they used Black’s model for the European commodity option onto which the early exercise premium was added, arising from the optional early exercising the American option. Structured as described above, the model was discussed in papers published in subsequent years and the subject was further expanded by Bjerksund and Stensland (1993, 2002) as well as other analysts. The literature offers examples of many other commodity option valuation models (both European and American), based on Black’s concepts; however, they have been modified at a rather large scale. Revisions and attempts at improving valuation of these options were made by Schwartz (1997), Shreve (2004) and Clark (2011). However, until now, the solutions proposed by Black come as the most popular valuation model for these options. 2.2. Black’s Model in Commodity Options and the Greeks Black’s solutions dating back to 1976 is a fairly easy method of valuating European commodity prices. The model is based on the assumption that the underlying instrument prices move as particles in the Brownian movement, which is a particular case of a stochastic Wiener process. In turn, calculation of the option premium concentrates on searching for a value balancing the payout for the option buyer on the contract expiry date. Eventually, with the respective initial assumptions, prices of European commodity call and put options are expressed with the following formulas (Clark, 2014; Hull, 2012): V e f N d KN d 0 C r T 0 1 2 d = ( )− ( )  − (1) V e KN d f N d 0 P r T 2 0 1 d = −( )− −( )  − (2) Where d = ln f K + 2 T T 1 0 2      σ σ (3) d = f K 2 T T 2 0 2 ln      − σ σ (4) And V 0 C – Price of the commodity call option, V 0 P – Price of the commodity put option, f0– The future price of the underlying instrument, K– Strike price of the option, rd– Continuously compounded riskless interest rate, T– Time left until the option expiration, σ2– Yearly variance rate of return for the underlying instrument, N– The standard normal cumulative distribution function. The impact of some of the option parameters is analysed by using the Greeks. They provide information on how the option may change as a result of a changing a parameter by a unit. In this paper, four different Greeks were used: delta, gamma, vega and theta. Their mathematical interpretation and formulas which can be used to calculate the value based on Black model, are presented in Table 1. The first of the presented coefficients, the delta, shows the option price response to a change in the future price of the underlying instrument (a commodity) by a unit. Delta is also identified with the proxy for the probability that an option will expire in the money (Hull, 2012). In turn, by calculating the gamma, one can learn about the impact of the future price of the underlying asset on the change in the delta. Mathematically, the delta is a partial second derivative of the option price against the price of the underlying asset. Another Greek, vega, is a partial first derivative of the option price calculated against price volatility of the underlying asset. Its value indicates how and by how much the option price is going to change given a 1% p.p. increase (or a decrease) in volatility of the underlying assets for which the option was sold. Theta offers some crucial information on the impact on the number of days to the last trading day on the option price. Theta shows a potential change in the value of the option when reducing the time to the last trading day by a time unit. the structure of the Black’s model Łamasz and Iwaszczuk: Crude Oil Option Market Parameters and Their Impact on the Cost of Hedging by Long Strap Strategy International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 10 • Issue 1 • 2020474 would indicate a year as the unit but the typically considered unit is a day instead. Such analysis provides therefore more precise information on the impact of theta on the option price (Bittman, 2009; Hull, 2012). Works by Taleb (1996), Hull (2012) or Węgrzyn (2013) offer some information on the Greeks covered in this paper and the method for their shaping depending on the type of the analysed options. In this paper, the Greeks have been used to analyse the power of the impact of some selected market parameters on the level of costs and BEPs in the long strap strategy. However, before they were determined, the method of structuring the strategy had been described briefly as well as equations helpful to determine the BEP points in the strategy were presented in more detail. 3. LONG STRAP STRATEGY – STRUCTURE AND BEP POINTS The long strap strategy is formed by a combination of long positions in call and put options for the same underlying asset and the same time to expiration. Furthermore, the strike prices of these options are set at an identical level. It is also assumed that the number of positions taken in the call option is twice as high as the number of position in the put option. Therefore, in order to calculate the final result achieved in the long strap strategy, it is necessary to set out the final results in long positions of both put and call options with the right parameters and, subsequently, placing them in a manner appropriate for the strategy. Assuming that K is the strike price of an option, c is a unit option premium for the call option and p is a unit option premium for the put option and FT is the future price of a commodity on the expiration day, the profit function of long position in n call options (C(K)) is, ( ) ( ) T T T nc if F