International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 196 POLITICAL MARKETING FACTORS DETERMINING ADVANTAGES INTENTION TO VOTE (STUDY ON TUBAN REGENCY ELECTION DECEMBER 2020) Volume: 3 Number: 1 Page: 196-204 1Rahayu, RAHAYU, 2Puji HANDAYATI 1PhD Student, State University of Malang, Indonesia and Lecturer Universitas Islam Majapahit Mojokerto, Indonesia 2 State University of Malang, Indonesia Corresponding author: Rahayu RAHAYU E-mail: rahayusemsi.2104139@student.um.ac.id Article History: Received: 2022-12-24 Revised: 2022-01-11 Accepted: 2022-03-05 Abstract: This study aims to examine the variables of political marketing to get the most votes. This variable is a technique and control of a system so that the campaign team is successful in general elections to win or get the most votes in the political arena. For this reason, the success team must understand strategies in political marketing, which include intimacy, personal connections, trust, intention to vote, personal connections, and word of mouth. The research approach method uses quantitative because this research focuses on hypothesis testing so that the research process can be carried out in a structured manner and uses a large sample. Research result Familiarity has a significant effect on personal connection in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election. Familiarity has no significant effect on Trust in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election. Familiarity has a significant effect on the intention to vote in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election. The personal connection has a significant effect on Trust in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election. Trust has a significant effect on word of mouth in political marketing in the Tuban Regency election in 2020. Trust significantly affects the intention to vote in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency post-conflict local election. Intention to vote has a significant effect on word of mouth in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency post-conflict local election". Keywords: Familiarity, Personal Connection, Trust, Intention To Vote, Word Of Mouth Cite this as: RAHAYU, R., HANDAYATI, P., (2022). “Political Marketing Factors Determining Advantages Intention To Vote (Study On Tuban Regency Election December 2020)”. International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences, 3 (1), 196-204. INTRODUCTION The application of marketing in politics and the many studies to find theories and empirical research to test theories strengthen the reason to think that political marketing has now turned into a separate scientific discipline (O'Cass, 2001). The amount of political marketing science that has not been researched allows for political marketing to undergo changes and adjustments; this statement is also supported by Henneberg (2002), the situation is possible because of the breadth of marketing theories that can still be applied in political marketing, a party must understand the elements of political marketing. -key elements and marketing for success not only in the short term but also in the long term. Most of the research on political marketing that exists so far emphasizes strategy and tactics, especially the process of segmentation, targeting and positioning. Meanwhile, the number of studies on voter behavior is still limited; moreover, the study of voter behavior is accompanied by empirical research (Yaqoub, 2007). Whereas political marketing is not only seen during the campaign period (Butler & Collins, 2002), political marketing is more aimed at long- term goals. Political marketing does not guarantee a win, but provides tools for maintaining a relationship with voters to build trust and subsequently gain voter support (O'Shaughnessy, 2007). If political parties can maintain their quality, it will be easier for them to win elections (O'Cass, 2009). International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 197 The concept described above will be used as the construction of this research. The context used is also changed from a general marketing context to a political marketing context. Some of the concepts used are adaptations of research by Gremler et al. (2001), which discusses the influence of the relationship between employees and consumers on positive word of mouth. The relationship referred to here is familiarity which will then form a personal connection and care and trust, and finally, this trust will form a positive word of mouth. The addition of the Intention to vote variable is because, according to Kotler and Kotler (1999 in O'Cass, 2001), political marketing aims to influence every person and institution to make a candidate successful in the general election. While the reduction of the care variable is done because, in the context of election campaigns, the caring which carried out by parties or candidates is not hedonic behaviors, namely caring because they are motivated by the desire to give so that voters feel better, but instrumental behaviors that are motivated by achieving goals and obligatory behaviors, namely attitudes that are indeed natural. Carried out by parties or candidates during the campaign period. So the author considers that the care variable does not need to be included. But rather, instrumental behaviors that are motivated by the achievement of goals and obligatory behaviors, namely attitudes that are naturally carried out by parties or candidates during the campaign period. So the author considers that the care variable does not need to be included. But rather, instrumental behaviors that are motivated by the achievement of goals and obligatory behaviors, namely attitudes that are naturally carried out by parties or candidates during the campaign period. So the author considers that the care variable does not need to be included. This research examines the phenomenon of the development of the political system in Indonesia, which has used a direct election system for the president, members of the legislature, and regional heads for the past few years. The increasing number of competition makes political marketing science used to formulate winning strategies in elections. It makes the need for studies of political marketing and voter behavior in Indonesia become increasingly important. Meanwhile, political marketing theory should not refer to certain theories because each region has unique political, economic, social, cultural, and defense and security conditions. Of the many existing studies, research on voter behavior is still limited. Understanding the characteristics and behavior of voters is useful for candidates in formulating ways of communicating with the public, so that political messages can be transferred effectively. It is the reason why this study chose to make voter behavior the discussion in this study, especially the behavior of intention to vote and voter word of mouth behavior. Vote and voter word-of-mouth behavior. The objectives of this study are: a). To determine the effect of familiarity on personal connection b). To determine the effect, familiarity on Trust c). To determine the effect of familiarity on the intention to vote, d). To determine the effect of personal connection on Trust, e). To determine the effect of trust on word of mouth, f). To determine the effect of trust on intention to vote and to determine the effect of intention to vote on word of mouth. And from marketing theory and previous studies, it is known that familiarity, personal connection and trust can influence these two voter behaviors. Therefore, are the three variables also able to have an effect when applied to political marketing. METHODS This study uses a quantitative approach, which is a study that focuses on hypothesis testing. The research process was carried out in a structured manner and used many samples. The population in this study is the people of Tuban Regency who already have the right to vote and are not party administrators in implementing the Regional Head General Election. This study uses a sample collection method, Non-Probability Sampling, with system convenience sampling. The number of samples was determined to be 100. The determination of the number of samples was adjusted according to the opinion of Hair et al. (1998) that the sample size for conducting research using path analysis techniques is 100-200 or a minimum of 5 times the International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 198 number of indicators and a maximum of 10 times the number of indicators. The variables studied were identified as follows: 1. Exogenous variable with notation X, namely familiarity. 2. The intervening variable with notation Z1 is a personal connection, Z2 is trust, Z3 is the intention to vote. 3. Endogenous variable with Y notation, namely the word of mouth communication. Data analysis techniques used path analysis to explain the causal relationship between one or more variables. At the same time, the path model is the basic model used to analyze the path to estimate the strength of the causal relationships between correlations and covariance of several constructs (Ferdinand, 2005: 135). RESULT AND DISCUSSION Path Analysis The purpose of the study was to determine the effect of familiarity on word of mouth through personal connection, trust and voter intention to vote for three (3) pairs of candidates participating in the post-conflict local election, with the object of research being residents of Tuban Regency who have the right to vote in the post-conflict local election of Tuban Regency which was held on the 9th. December 2020. The statistical method used is path analysis. The steps taken are: 1. Test-Path Diagram Based on the development of the model, the path diagram to show the causal relationship between variables can be described as follows: Figure 1. Path Diagram 2. Path Coefficient Estimation (Path) Based on the results of data processing using the AMOS program, the estimated path coefficients are as follows: Trust WOM Personal connection Familiarity Intention to vote d1 d2 d4 d3 International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 199 Figure 2. Path Coefficient Estimation Hypothesis Proving The model that has been built must be measured. The measurement results of this model use the AMOS 22 program, while the results are as follows: Table 1. Regression Weight Path Analysis Influence Estimate SE CR P Standardize Regression Weight () z1  x1 0.748 0.078 8.877 0.000 0.6867 z2  xl 0.191 0.342 0.867 0.419 0.076 z2  z1 0.624 0.229 4,931 0.000 0.531 z3  z2 0.529 0.126 4.775 0.000 0.364 z3  xl 0.478 0.147 4.341 0.000 0.355 y  z3 0.652 0.338 6.751 0.000 05729 y  z2 0.346 0.012 2.437 0.012 0.2176 Based on the table above, the following steps are taken to prove the hypothesis: The magnitude of the effect of familiarity (X) on the personal connection (Z1) is 0.6867; based on this value, it can be interpreted that if the level. Voters' familiarity with candidate pairs increases by 1 unit, so the personal connection of voters in candidate pairs will also increase by 0.6867 units. The effect is significant because it has a probability value of less than 0.05, which is 0.000. Thus, the first hypothesis proposed in this study, "Familiarity has a significant effect on personal connection in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election," is proven correct and accepted. The effect of familiarity (X1) on trust (Z2) has no effect or is not significant because the probability value is more than 0.05, which is 0.419. then the second hypothesis in this study, "Familiarity has a significant effect on Trust in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election," is rejected. The magnitude of the influence of familiarity (X1) on the intention to vote (Z3) is 0.355, meaning that if the level of voter familiarity with candidate pairs increases by 1 unit, then the intention to vote for voters is 0.355 units. By looking at the probability value of less than 0.05, which is 0.000. Thus, the third hypothesis in this study, namely Familiarity, has a significant effect on the .57 Trust WOM Personal connection Familiarity Intention to vote d1 d2 d4 d3 .62 .48 .65 .33 .68 .48 .09 .79 .51 .48 International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 200 intention to vote in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency post-conflict local election, proven and accepted. The magnitude of the influence of personal connection (Z1) on trust (Z2) is 0.531, meaning that if the personal connection level of the candidate pair voters increases by 1 unit, then the voter trust in the candidate pair will also increase by 0.531 units. The results of data analysis show that the probability value is less than 0.05, which is 0.000, so the fourth hypothesis proposed in this study is that "Personal connection has a significant effect on Trust in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency post-conflict local election." proven and accepted. The magnitude of the influence of the trust variable (Z2) on word of mouth (Y) is worth 0.2176, meaning that if the trust of the candidate pair voters increases by 1 unit, the word of mouth value will also increase by 0.2176 units. Therefore, by looking at the probability value, which is still less than 0.05, which is 0.012, the hypothesis proposed in this study, namely "Trust has a significant effect on word of mouth in political marketing in the Tuban Regency election 2020", is proven true and accepted. Great influence trust (Z2) on the intention to vote (Z3) is 0.364, meaning that if the trust variable for the candidate pair voters increases by one unit, the intention to vote for voters will also increase by 0.364 units. By looking at the magnitude of the probability level of 0.000 where this value is still below 0.05 or 5%, the influence of the trust variable (Z2) on the intention to vote (Z3) is said to be significant. Thus the sixth hypothesis proposed in this study is "Trust has a significant effect on the intention to vote in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency post-conflict local election." Proven correct and accepted. The magnitude of the influence of the variable intention to vote (Z3) on word of mouth (Y) is 05729, meaning that if the level of intention to vote for voters increases by one unit, then word of mouth voters will increase by 05729 units. Based on the probability value whose result is less than 0.05, which is 0.000, the seventh hypothesis proposed in this study is "Intention to vote has a significant effect on word of mouth in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency post-conflict local election. It is proven true and accepted. Empirical and Theoretical Study of Research Results Based on the results of proving the hypothesis above, further analysis can be carried out as an effort to examine the conditions that exist in the post-conflict local election in the TubanRegency 2020 to compare the suitability between empirical and theoretical conditions. It needs to be done so that the results of this study in the form of improvements to political marketing strategies can actually be applied by the successful team of the post-conflict local election candidates in Tuban Regency; this problem is important so that the successful team of the post-conflict local election candidates can understand the behavior of voters in making decisions to make right choices. These steps are explained as follows: 1. Examining the results of the first hypothesis, "Familiarity has a significant effect on personal connection in political marketing in the Tuban Regency election in 2020," proved to be true and accepted. Based on empirical observations, the candidates have been optimal in conducting self- introductions through advertisements, posters, banners, campaigns, social media, and direct dialogue, which are carried out with sufficient frequency. In addition, the candidates also take advantage of their success team optimally to add detailed information about the candidate so that prospective voters can know more deeply. Thus the prospective voters will have a positive opinion in translating their wishes, whether the candidate's work programs, character, The view to spur growth in all fields as well as the candidate's personal character can be informed in detail so that prospective voters, especially the public in general, know and can make the right choice for Tuban Regency in the period 2021 to 2026. Therefore, the significant influence between the familiarity variable on personal connection is real. Furthermore, because the candidate's knowledge or level of voter recognition is carried out aggressively by both the candidate himself and his success, thus, it is easy for prospective voters to assess candidates both personally and the programs that will be run if elected or won in the post-conflict local election. This condition International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 201 follows the existing theory, that familiarity consists of cognitive and affective components, where familiarity involves cognitive processes because it focuses on the level of awareness of short-term and long-term memory. 2. Then familiarity can process effectively, which leads to personal bonding. Familiarity itself is driven by the frequency of interaction and how deep the interaction between the candidate and the voter is, meaning that the deeper the interaction is built, the more personal relationship between the voter and the candidate, known as a personal one connection. So the longer a person is in contact with other people, the closer their relationship will be, and the more knowledge about each other's wants and needs, the higher the relationship will form a personal bond. Personal connection is a form of a strong bond based on several things in common. The relationship is based on the common characteristics and interests. Several theories explain that individuals with a high degree of similarity will prefer to form a relationship. The results of Coulter's (2000) study found that increasing the perception of similarity between customers and service providers will increase the perception of similarity between customers and service providers and will increase trust. This theory also applies to political marketing; this can be proven through the results of this study which show a significant effect of personal connection on trust, with a significance value of 0.000. The similarity of views and thoughts between voters and candidates will trust voters that the candidate can lead and provide the best for the community. The results of Coulter's (2000) study found that increasing the perception of similarity between customers and service providers will increase the perception of similarity between customers and service providers and will increase trust. This theory also applies to political marketing; this can be proven through the results of this study which show a significant effect of personal connection on trust, with a significance value of 0.000. The similarity of views and thoughts between voters and candidates will trust voters that the candidate can lead and provide the best for the community. This theory also applies to political marketing; this can be proven through the results of this study which show a significant effect of personal connection on trust, with a significance value of 0.000. The similarity of views and thoughts between voters and candidates will trust voters that the candidate can lead and provide the best for the community. This theory also applies to political marketing; this can be proven through the results of this study which show a significant effect of personal connection on trust, with a significance value of 0.000. The similarity of views and thoughts between voters and candidates will trust voters that the candidate can lead and provide the best for the community. 3. Based on the results of the second hypothesis, "Familiarity has a significant effect on Trust in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election" is rejected. Let us examine the post- conflict local election empirically in Tuban Regency in 2020, even though the public knows the candidates and the programs that will be run. Many people are unsure because the program was launched in the previous post-conflict local election, but the elected candidates also have difficulty applying it. Examples of treatment in health services both at the Puskesmas (community health center) and RSUD (regional public hospital) are, in fact, health services cannot satisfy free BPJS(health social and security agency) users, participants, meaning that the services provided have not been maximized. Likewise with other programs. It is evident that the candidates elected in the previous period were considered unable to work optimally in public services. 4. The third hypothesis, which states that "Familiarity has a significant effect on the intention to vote in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election", is proven and accepted. This condition can be studied empirically that if it is likened to a product brand, then the candidate pairs in the post-conflict local election who are familiar to the ears of the voters will be easier to remember and know by the voters. Therefore, familiarity will be used by voters as information before deciding to choose a party or candidate in the general election. . The more familiar a party or candidate is, the intention to vote will also increase, but depending on if the candidate is International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 202 familiarly known positively, the intention to vote will increase and vice versa if it is negative then the intention to vote will decrease. 5. The fourth hypothesis, "Personal connection has a significant effect on Trust in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election." is proven and accepted. Empirically, it can be studied that the post-conflict local election in Tuban Regency, in general, has rational behavior, especially the voters. Voters do not trust easily and immediately give their vote to a candidate just because they feel they know the candidate and share the same views, but they feel they have to have a closer personal relationship, such as sharing views and understanding with the candidate before giving their vote. This closeness will foster trust in voters in the candidate. As with the post-conflict local election in Tuban Regency, candidates hold intense meetings or campaigns in several areas that are considered the majority for candidates in the hope that prospective voters can get to know them more closely so that confidence arises in them to choose trustworthy candidates. 6. Meanwhile, for certain areas that are considered difficult to enter, the candidate reduces the frequency of carrying out his campaign. The candidates believe that voters who are difficult to approach will still be difficult, and their activities will be in vain and incur considerable costs. Meanwhile, for certain areas that are considered difficult to enter, the candidate reduces the frequency of carrying out his campaign. It is because the candidates believe that voters who are difficult to approach will still be difficult, and their activities will be in vain and incur considerable costs. Meanwhile, for certain areas that are considered difficult to enter, the candidate reduces the frequency of carrying out his campaign. The candidates believe that voters who are difficult to approach will still be difficult, and their activities will be in vain and incur considerable costs. 7. An empirical study of the results of the fifth hypothesis, "Trust has a significant effect on word of mouth in political marketing in the Tuban Regency election in 2020", proven true and accepted; this is because the voter's trust in candidate pairs also makes voters convey things good things done by candidates to others. Voter's trust will affect WOM (word of mouth) communication, where a prospective voter who has believed in a certain candidate will recommend that candidate in his community. For this reason, prospective voters who believe in the capabilities possessed by the candidate will carry out positive WOM communication. It is proven in the results of this study that trust has a positive influence on word-of-mouth communication. If voters find an advantage that creates a sense of trust in the candidate in the process of searching for information, they will tend to share the information they get with other people or other voters. 8. Based on the results of testing the Keenan hypothesis, "Trust has a significant effect on the intention to vote in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency post-conflict local election." Proven true and accepted, empirically, this can be known based on qualifications, experience, competence, ability and expertise in maintaining the quality and capability of candidates in their efforts to prioritize the community's interests; this can foster an intention to choose a candidate pair. It should be understood that the trust of prospective voters in the credibility of candidates in designing and delivering campaigns for their programs will encourage a positive influence on attitudes and intention to purchase. Sichtmann's research (2007) also shows that trust also significantly influences intention to purchase. This theory can also be applied in political marketing, proven by the results of this study which showed significant results. This theory is also strengthened by the opinion of O'Shaughnessy (2001), political marketing does not guarantee a victory, but provides tools on how to maintain relationships with voters to build trust and subsequently gain vote support. So the more voters believe in the credibility and ability of a candidate or party, their intention to vote will also be higher. The voter's trust in the candidate pair also makes voters convey the good things that the candidate has done to others. According to Bedi and Kaur (2006), customer trust will affect WOM (word of mouth) communication where a customer who has believed in a product will recommend the product International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 203 in their community. Ranaweera and Prabhu (2003) say, that customers who believe in the quality of a service or product, will carry out positive WOM communication. In political marketing, trust also has the same effect on word-of-mouth communication. If voters find an advantage that creates a sense of trust in the candidate in the process of searching for information, they will tend to share the information they get with other people or other voters. Trust also has the same effect on word-of-mouth communication. If voters find an advantage that creates a sense of trust in the candidate in the process of searching for information, they will tend to share the information they get with other people or other voters. Trust also has the same effect on word-of-mouth communication. If voters find an advantage that creates a sense of trust in the candidate in the process of searching for information, they will tend to share the information they get with other people or other voters. The seventh hypothesis proposed in this study is "Intention to vote has a significant effect on word of mouth in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election". Proven correct and accepted. Empirically this can be studied that someone will tend to share the results of the information he gets on the candidate to his closest people. In political marketing, before someone has the intention to vote, they have gone through a process of evaluating alternatives that exist from the information that voters received previously, and voters tend to communicate word of mouth on information that voters get to other people or other voters after they have the intention to choose a candidate. CONCLUSION Based on the results of the discussion described above, the conclusions from the results of this study are: 1. The results of the first hypothesis analysis that "Familiarity has a significant effect on personal connection in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election" are proven to be true and accepted. Thus, the more familiar a candidate is among the public, there will be a strong psychological bond between them because their closeness will foster a sense of equality in certain concepts, especially the concept of the view of regional development developments between candidates and prospective voters. 2. The results of the second hypothesis analysis, "Familiarity has a significant effect on Trust in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election," are rejected. Instead, this empirically shows that the community had learned from the previous period's post-conflict local election, where during the campaign, many candidates conveyed the advantages of their program, but when they became winners, they were unable to run the program optimally (many program failures), this condition reduced public confidence in the candidate. 3. The third hypothesis, which states that "Familiarity has a significant effect on the intention to vote in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election", was proven and accepted. It can be studied empirically that the closeness between voters and candidates can encourage voters to choose candidates with the various advantages possessed by candidates. However, these advantages must be positive because they can build the confidence of potential voters in the candidate. 4. The fourth hypothesis, "Personal connection has a significant effect on Trust in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency election." is proven and accepted. In general, people have rational behavior, meaning that prospective voters must have closeness, so that it is known whether or not there is a common view and understanding with the candidate before giving their vote. 5. The fifth hypothesis proposed is "Trust has a significant effect on word of mouth in political marketing in the Tuban Regency election in 2020", proven true and accepted, based on empirical observations that voter trust in candidate pairs also makes voters convey things good things are done by candidates to others Voters' trust will affect WOM (word of mouth) communication, International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 204 where a prospective voter who has trusted a certain candidate will recommend that candidate in his community. 6. The sixth hypothesis proposed "Trust significantly affects the intention to vote in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency post-conflict local election." Proven to be true and accepted, empirically, this can be known based on qualifications, experience, competence, ability and expertise in maintaining the quality and capability of candidates in their efforts to prioritize the community's interests; this can foster an intention to choose a candidate pair. The seventh hypothesis proposed in this study is "Intention to vote has a significant effect on word of mouth in political marketing in the 2020 Tuban Regency post-conflict local election". Proven correct and accepted. Empirically this can be studied that someone will tend to share the results of the information he gets on the candidate to his closest people. 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