International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 288 INDONESIA’S 2022 PRESIDENCY FOR THE G20 SUMMIT IN A STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE PERSPECTIVE: ANTICIPATING SECURITY AND HIDDEN AGENDA ISSUES Volume: 3 Number: 2 Page: 288-298 1Sundawan SALYA, 2Yassar NANDANA 1Lecturer of the State Intelligence College, University of Indonesia 2Master Student of Strategic Intelligence Studies, University of Indonesia Corresponding author: Sundawan SALYA E-mail: stepi@stin.ac.id Article History: Received: 2022-04-11 Revised: 2022-06-24 Accepted: 2022-07-23 Abstract: Indonesia is trusted to host the G20 summit in 2022. This opportunity is the first time since the G20 was established. With the slogan "Recover Together, Recover Stronger", Indonesia hopes that this forum will provide an opportunity for all member countries to engage in dialogue to achieve political stability following the Covid-19 pandemics. Several priority issues will be discussed, which is the global health architecture as a joint effort in responding to Covid-19, which is still spreading in various countries, including the emergence of a new virus variant known as Omicron. In addition to these issues, dialogue forums allow countries to aspire to their national interests, although not all state purposes and interests can be stated explicitly. Strategic intelligence provides remarkable analytical results. Undeniably, the Indonesian Presidency in the G20 has many advantages. However, that does not mean it negates some threats. The holding of the G20 in Indonesia presents a potential threat in increasing clandestine operations in Indonesian territory, obtaining information domestically as a manifestation of foreign efforts to achieve their national interests. In addition, the discussion of sensitive issues such as the issue of Papuan independence, issues of illegal logging and conservation and destruction of forests can irritate Indonesia and interfere with the national interests. Thus, the strategic intelligence approach for maintaining Indonesia's interests in the G20 series should be well-applied. Keywords: Strategic Intelligence, Indonesia’s G20 Presidency, National Interest, Threats Cite this as: SALYA, S., NANDANA., Y. (2022). “Indonesia’s 2022 Presidency For The G20 Summit In A Strategic Intelligence Perspective: Anticipating Security And Hidden Agenda Issues.” International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences, 3 (2), 288 – 298. INTRODUCTION Background, Urgency and Relevance of the G20. The Indonesian Presidency at the G20 High-Level Conference (Summit) will be the third time this event was held during the Covid-19 period. The multilateral forum accommodates contemporary issues that bring member countries' hopes and encourage them in mutual interests--the rise of all countries from the Covid-19 pandemic. Indonesia carries the theme of the G20 Summit, "Recover Together, Recover Stronger", which indicates that Covid-19 is still an essential issue for the international community. This spirit of togetherness is in line with the efforts of the G20 to encourage the inclusiveness of member countries. This eagerness reflected the event behind the establishment of the G20 in 1999 in Germany. In terms of politics and international relations, multilateral forums such as G20 allow each country to express its national interests. Regardless of the path of cooperation or close relations between countries established before the multilateral forum was held. Therefore, concerning the interests of each country, Indonesia as the host does not only have challenges in successfully organizing a dialogue platform held in a series of G20 events but also needs to be aware of foreign countries' interests that operate during the event in Indonesia. This article will map Indonesia's vulnerabilities during the G20 Presidency seen through a strategic intelligence approach and efforts that can minimize the impact of Indonesia as the host. It is intended as a form of Indonesia's readiness to anticipate potential threats that may come at a mailto:stepi@stin.ac.id International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 289 sudden time. Indonesia's opportunity to lead the way for the summit is not only a benefit to the national interest—the ability to set a priority agenda that will be discussed in the forum. However, it also brings several impacts that deserve mutual attention, both for the government and the wider community. For example, in the political dimension and security stability, the issue of Papuan independence can be raised as a notion in multilateral forums. The implication is that human rights and independence issues can allow human rights activists to help with this conception, to win people's hearts to side with foreign interests. Besides hosting, the vulnerability of threats to clandestine operations or covert actions carried out in Indonesian territory is another thing. Therefore, comprehensive and strategic measures are needed to confront various vulnerability dimensions before and during the G20 event in Indonesia. This article has two problem formulations regarding the research objectives: through a strategic intelligence perspective and approach 1) What are the vulnerabilities of holding G20 events in Indonesia?; 2) how does the government minimize those vulnerabilities?. Resilience in national security and national defense, which is associated with the risks faced by the state and nation, is increasingly considered essential by all state actors. In Margaretha Hanita's book National Resilience, Theory, Adaptation and Strategy, the rise of resilience in international relations has gone hand in hand with the emergence of risk-related research and analysis in current efforts to live with global uncertainty. National Resilience. Resilience is a form of maintenance characterized by adaptation. Resources and energy will be used to maintain the status quo. Transformation is essential to justify implementing measures to enforce the status quo against event-driven change. Disruption or shock is not perceived as problematic or damaging. However, it will be socially constructed as threatening and harmful, despite the possibility that there is a disconnect between security discourse and security practice. Resilience as maintenance will see the harmony between discourse and practice (Hanita, 2020). National Interest. In international relations, the concept of "national interest" is crucial. All nations are constantly working to achieve or secure the objectives of their national interests. Each country's foreign policy is based on its national interests, and it is continually working to achieve its objectives. Each state has an internationally recognized right to protect its national interests. A state will always try to explain its actions by citing national interests. A state's actions are always conditioned and guided by its national interests. As a result, understanding the meaning and content of National Interest is critical. The concept of 'national interest' is one of the most divisive politics. The phrase has been used to describe a state's relative influence in the international system and an expression of the political community's 'general will,' the aggregate of individual citizens' demands, dedication to long-standing policies, and governmental secrecy. In a recent reformulation of the concept, Alexander George believes that it can be reduced to three essential components: the state's security and physical existence, its independence and liberty, and the populace's economic prosperity. However, he says that using "national interest" to describe such aspirations is a misnomer. Rather than interests, these are 'irreducible national values.' Moreover, interests involve more concrete and historically contextual ways of safeguarding certain ideals, whereas values can remain constant across time (Edmunds et al., 2014). Strategic Intelligence. Intelligence evolved into an identifiable form in modern practice. For Don McDowell, many people misunderstand the intelligence community. The terms espionage and critical analysis are often confused as if they all mean the same thing. The primary purpose is different. Collecting data through intrusive and invasive spying is the essence of espionage. In contrast, data collection and analysis, interpretation, and speculative examination of events, patterns, threats, hazards and future possibilities are part of the strategic intelligence process. According to McDowell's definition, strategic intelligence analysis is a study that examines any subject in-depth and breadth to determine threats, dangers, and opportunities to establish or determine management programs or policies (McDowell, 2009). International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 290 Strategic intelligence is not a new method of analysis. On the other hand, strategic intelligence and analysis is a long-standing branch of intelligence in history. However, its application in law enforcement, decision-making and policy practices is still relatively new. The basis for actively preparing for future steps is the depth of study, production of explanations from the data collection results, futuristic and holistic predictions, and applying analytical conclusions. Strategic intelligence and analysis focus on creative thinking about issues at the macro level while maintaining pragmatism of interest with tactical efforts. METHODS The author collects and analyses various organizational documents, literature, brainstorming and interviews with national officials to verify the validity of the information. These data are then integrated qualitatively with the theoretical framework used. In general, by combining data from various reading sources, the authors found a discussion gap where the study of strategic intelligence needs to be discussed more deeply in academic discussions. Thus, the writer hopes this paper can produce a sharp, easy-to-understand, accurate analysis. RESULT AND DISCUSSION G20, Nation and its Interest. Disappointment with G7 failure to find solutions to the global economic problems urged the international community to form a dialogue forum. This forum will include a middle-income country and a country with an economic influence in broader scope into negotiations to find solutions concerning global economic problems. Therefore, a more inclusive multilateral forum was formed to represent the aspirations and ideas of more parties, embracing developed and developing countries to overcome the crisis jointly. The G20 is the main economic forum globally that has a strategic position because it collectively represents around 65% of the world's population, 79% of global trade and at least 85% of the world’s economy (Sherpa G20 Indonesia, 2021). The G20 is a platform where country leaders, and their ministers, are committed to working between developed and developing countries, primarily low-income countries—to assist them in implementing national policies and priorities. It also boosts achieving development goals agreed upon by the international community, particularly the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Ballawar, 2020). The G20 promotes growth and development by providing policy consistency, analysis and practical instruments. It allows G20 members to collaborate between developed and developing countries to strengthen development initiatives as a global agenda. It also shows that the forum keeps paying attention to human resource development. Not only at international, regional and national levels, the job-seeking community also benefits from the coordinated efforts of the G20 to create jobs. The G20 plays an essential role in fostering an enabling environment for equitable global growth and development. Accordingly, its efforts to provide financial stability, promote prosperity, and prevent and manage crises are essential to the international community. As developing countries become more integrated into the global economy, they are helping the G20 achieve its goals of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive global growth. In this way, the flexibility and accountability of the G20 have been relevant to encouraging the collective interests of member countries, including maintaining global economic and political stability in the long term. The G20 becomes a crucial annual meeting because it can deliver every country's interest. The ability of the G20 forum to convey aspirations to the international community is seen as an ideal prospect for countries to implement their respective national interests. Moreover, the momentum of bilateral and multilateral meetings conducted within the event allows a country delegation to meet and share insight against other parties related to their interests or attain a personal and emotional approach. However, not all Summit results can accommodate each country's goals. It may be likely that the summit's results could be detrimental to several parties. International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 291 Mapping Vulnerabilities and Threats. The environment and international community are prone to conflicts of interest between countries. An instrument that can be utilized in secrecy outside the national territory is needed to secure these interests. The Secret Instrument (Clandestine) that is used to secure the interests of a country in the international community from all types of conflicts that may occur is the Intelligence Instrument, in which the action is carried out in the form of Strategic Intelligence Operations. Strategic Intelligence can be described as strategic intelligence about foreign nations' capabilities, vulnerabilities, and probable courses of action. It is produced primarily for the use of high-level military commanders or policymakers in foreign affairs, charged with the planning and executing of national security measures in times of peace and with the conduct of military operations in times of war. Strategic intelligence is related to how users or managers can avoid failure and minimize the risks faced. Therefore, strategic intelligence needs to gather information about its capabilities, intentions, opportunities, vulnerabilities, limitations, and risks or threats from a focus topic. Strategic intelligence is concerned with making foreign and domestic policy policies in international relations, covering various sectors, such as economy, trade, energy, industry and technology or defense planning and military interests. Strategic intelligence creates a mapping pictures of foreign countries' capabilities, strengths, vulnerabilities, and possibilities to act. Strategic intelligence also gathers data about the possibility of conflict vulnerabilities-- anticipating before reaching the final scale, the war. The initial stages of strategic intelligence are generally formulated through non-military methods to influence the behavior of the elite in the target country in the mission, such as the launching of a psywar, destabilization of political and economic conditions, or propaganda to distort information in a community. Thus, strategic intelligence has high relevance in modern policymaking related to state vulnerabilities and threats. Covid-19: Disruption to the Order of Society. Pandemic Covid-19 has posed a severe threat to human physical and mental health. It has had a considerable impact on daily life, with psychological ramifications worldwide. The public health consequences of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak are genuinely beyond anyone's comprehension (Muhyiddin & Nugroho, 2021). More than 210 nations have been affected by the pandemic, and most of them are currently undergoing infection control measures such as lockdowns, quarantines, obligatory mask use, and public distancing (Wang et al., 2021). The Covid-19 epidemic has put the globe on the verge of the most significant economic downturn in the last 50 years. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its book The World Economic Outlook, the global economy will grow by minus 3.5 percent in 2020, which is worse than the global financial crisis of 2009 and the Asian monetary crisis of 1998 (International Monetary Fund, 2021). The issue of Covid-19 is still widespread in the national community. Indonesia has started a vaccine program and has reached 132 million people who received the first dose of vaccine, 86 million who received the second dose of vaccine and 1.2 million health workers injected with the third vaccine. However, the issue of Covid-19 is still a problem that interferes with people’s activities in general. Therefore, the existence of Covid-19 is an indicator of a threat that directly impacts the continuity of the upcoming 2022 G20 Indonesia Presidency (https://covid19.go.id., 2021). Giving vaccines and education on the importance of vaccines for immunity against viruses can reduce transmission rates. The Covid-19 virus variant B.1.1.529 or Omicron was recently detected in Indonesia on 16 December 2021 (Farisa, 2021). This incoming virus variant, at first glance, has become the primary concern of the Indonesian people, although unlike the beginning of Covid-19 at the end of February 2020. The public's attention is more on the thought 'will this Omicron variant be the third wave of Covid-19 in Indonesia?' Due to the past few months, the Indonesian government seems to be able to control the spread of Covid-19 with the push for a vaccine campaigned by President Joko Widodo and Commission IX of the Indonesian House of Representatives (Maharani, 2021). https://covid19.go.id/ International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 292 The Omicron variant can be 'resistant' to the vaccine. Nevertheless, recently, there has been a debate about whether this variant will be resistant to vaccines that have been distributed in the community. Studies by Discovery Health, South Africa's largest health insurance company, show that vaccines such as Pfizer and BioNTech provide only 33 percent protection against infection (Wroughton, 2021). In collaboration with scientists at the University of Hong Kong, a new study from Columbia University researchers suggests that the omicron variant may evade the immune protection provided by natural vaccines and infections (Columbia University Irving Medical Center, 2021). According to them, vaccines and boosters may not help much, so new vaccines and treatments are needed to anticipate the spreading virus (Keslen, 2021). However, as a reference for countries' regulations on health, WHO said that they still needed to work with partners to understand the further potential impact of the omicron variant, including the impact on vaccines. WHO still urges that vaccines remain essential to reduce severe illness and death, including against the dominant variant in circulation. Suppose the claim is valid that Omicron will be resistant to vaccines. In that case, holding the G20 Presidency in Indonesia requires strict protocols before, during, and after the event. The schemes that can occur are: 1) Omicron is widespread in cities in Indonesia and hinders the focus of government performance, including budget allocation, in the implementation of the G20 in 2022. It will impact during and after the G20 is held, where the Indonesian government must provide handling due to this. The possibility, if the spread of Omicron cannot be controlled, then the implementation of the G20 could be postponed or held entirely online to ensure the safety of all G20 summit participants; 2) G20 summit participants accidentally brought the Omicron virus into Indonesia, increasing the possibility of local spread through imported cases. Concerning Papua and the Effort to Maintain Domestic Politics Stability. The issue of Papuan freedom becomes a challenge when discussing the essence of human and state freedom to determine their destiny. It cannot be miscalculated. This issue can weaken Indonesia's position in dialogue in multilateral forums and any forum. Issues that can be exploited by certain countries, generally Western countries, such as the US, Australia, UK, Canada, and New Zealand, are interested in the liberation of Papua from Indonesia. The dialogue that cornered Indonesia had occurred in the discussion of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), which was expressed by Vanuatu, which was later refuted by the Indonesian diplomat, Silvany Austin Pasaribu. Vanuatu's continuous support for the United Liberalization Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) movement and echoes of the internationalization of the issue of the Free Papua Movement seem to have sown a war drum suppressing Indonesia's counter-action in upholding sovereignty. It becomes a severe challenge to Indonesia if Vanuatu does not acknowledge Papua (Papua Province and West Papua Province) as part of the Republic of Indonesia. Because they seem to consider that Indonesia has committed human rights violations by colonizing Papuan territory and the Melanesian race of Papua, it is confirmed by implementing Vanuatu's ideological constitution, which recognizes that as long as an independent Melanesian race has not been born, the Melanesian nation will not be fully independent. The trend is getting hotter when Vanuatu aggressively raises the issue of Free Papua on the global agenda at every annual UNGA meeting. It is solely aimed at attracting the world's attention to form a global opinion on the actions of the Indonesian government that commit gross human rights violations that curb the right of the Papuan people's independence to free themselves from the Republic of Indonesia. Vanuatu's unilateral action has triggered a strong reaction from Indonesia, which inevitably responds firmly but precisely and carefully, with strategic steps that provide a strong deterrent to the internationalization of the Papua issue (Helmy, 2019). "Free Melanesia" ideology is the only reason Vanuatu aggressively fights for Papuan independence. For Vanuatu, Papua belongs to an inseparable Melanesian race. For this reason, it is necessary to unite in the form of Melanesian Unity. This ideology is written in Vanuatu's legal constitution, currently the constitutional guideline. This ideological understanding is International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 293 strengthened by Melanesian culturalism as rational beliefs and ideals that strengthen racial solidity in the South Pacific free from colonialism. As recorded in history, the Melanesian race countries in the South Pacific, including Vanuatu, have been colonized. Vanuatu launched political provocation to streamline regionalism based on socialistic racism by forming a Melanesian-led regionalism paradigm in sub-regional cooperation in the South Pacific. In this case, Vanuatu wants to make itself an "ideological magnet" in the South Pacific by using the ideology of Melanesian independence and unity for political gain. However, it is also realized that Vanuatu's ideology is deliberately politicized solely to make Vanuatu a pioneer of the Melanesian economic revival. The lighthouse politics began to be carried out in a state where a socialist political system was implemented, against the background of Vanuatu's desire to make the country an engine of regional growth. It is this understanding that creates a covert dual foreign policy. On the one hand, Vanuatu prioritizes the ideology of Melanesian for political purposes. On the other hand, there is a politicization of ideology used for economic interests. For Indonesia, a challenge is quite formidable when dealing with the stigma of politicization of ideology, racial regionalism, and the extreme Melanesian ideology launched by Vanuatu. It has put Indonesia and Vanuatu in contradictory ideological positions on the Papua issue. Indonesia is a country where most of the race is Austronesian (in Indonesia's western and central regions). At the same time, the minority is Melanesian (in the eastern part of Indonesia). Therefore, stay based on the steadfastness of unity and integrity, making Papua an inseparable part of the Republic of Indonesia based on the nation's struggle against the invaders. Meanwhile, Vanuatu, whose entire society is Melanesian, considers Papua part of a single Melanesian race that cannot be separated from its emotional ties to all Melanesian races in the South Pacific. It causes Vanuatu, which is still apathetic towards the Republic of Indonesia. Thus, this issue can be used by separatist groups in Papua to garner international support at the G20 meeting. This notion is prone to be discussed. Indonesia needs to take diplomatic steps with countries that have made Papua an agenda item in their domestic parliament. Raising operations must be carried out by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the State Intelligence Agency to minimize the intentions of certain countries trying to bring the Papuan agenda to congress. Indonesia as the chairperson must be able to minimize the potential for this discussion—which will harm Indonesia's position by discussing conflict and separatist issues, which should be part of Indonesia's domestic work. Palm Oil Issues that Hold Indonesia’s Exports and Economic Acceleration. The resolutions decreed by the European Parliament on palm oil and rainforest deforestation it has expressed general considerations that recall that Malaysia and Indonesia are the primary producers of palm oil, with an estimated 85-90% of global production, and welcome the fact that Malaysian primary forest levels have increased since 1990, but remains concerned that current deforestation levels in Indonesia are running at a rate of -0.5% total loss every five years (European Parliament, 2017). This resolution shows discriminatory actions against palm oil-producing countries. It contradicts the EU's position as a champion of open, rules-based free, and fair trade (Suwarno, 2019). Furthermore, the data and information related to palm oil and forestry management in producing countries are not accurate and accountable, including data in Indonesia (Suwarno, 2019). In addition, this resolution also neglects the multi-stakeholder approach and contains a negative note on palm oil. Among them are mentioning that palm oil is a severe problem associated with corruption, child labor, human rights violations, overriding the rights of indigenous peoples, as a trigger for deforestation, and habitat destruction. The resolution also recommends investing palm oil in sunflower seed and canola oil (Sari, 2021). Efforts to hinder the palm oil industry are also carried out through a single certification scheme for palm oil entering the EU. Then, the EU will gradually eliminate vegetable oils that trigger deforestation starting in 2020. This resolution regarding palm oil does not explicitly International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 294 mention Indonesia. However, the world knows that the largest producer of palm oil is Indonesia, followed by Malaysia, Thailand, Colombia, and several other producing countries. In early 2015, at a working meeting of the heads of Indonesian representatives at the ministry of foreign affairs, President Joko Widodo gave instructions and mandates to the ministry of foreign affairs to carry out economic diplomacy. Diplomats must have a view as marketers or market seekers for Indonesian products. With the stipulation of economic diplomacy as one of the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs priorities, synergy and coordination with all stakeholders are immediately enhanced and strengthened. The efforts made by the Policy Assessment and Development Agency (BPPK) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia in economic diplomacy, especially in the sector of strengthening the sustainable palm oil industry, are more directed toward the development of intensive collaboration with academics, researchers, think-tanks, and other related institutions, both at home and abroad. BPPK is expected to formulate an effective foreign policy and be part of the formulation of a single narrative for Indonesia's sustainable palm oil policy (Kementerian Luar Negeri Republik Indonesia, 2018) The Malaysian prime minister has also captured Indonesia's commitment that the issue of palm oil is a significant issue for ASEAN. In this regard, President Joko Widodo and Prime Minister Mahatir Muhammad have delivered a joint letter to the EU and expressed deep disappointment with the EU's plan to ban palm oil for biofuels (The Jakarta Post, 2019). The statements of the two heads of state, Indonesia and Malaysia, respond to the ongoing economic diplomacy towards the policies of the European Union Commission and even towards the EU. Therefore, discussions and dialogues held at the G20 will ensure that Indonesia's interests—providing access to palm oil to the EU—become essential. Indonesia can ensure that the palm oil production protocol does not conflict with what was previously stated by the EU. Indonesia and illegal logging, nature conservation, and local customs issues are closely related. That way, Indonesia's interest in advancing Indonesian exports through palm oil can be achieved to encourage the acceleration of the nation's economy. Turmoil in the South China Sea. As a geopolitical issue discussed in the Sherpa Track dialogue, the notion of the South China Sea is still hotly discussed, especially now that a new maneuver is emerging, namely the establishment of AUKUS in the Asia-Pacific region. The tension between Indonesia and China has reached a new phase. On 1 December 2021, several Chinese officials requested Indonesia to halt oil and gas drilling in Northern Natuna. The Chinese government sent a complaint letter to the Indonesian Foreign Ministry, claiming that the drilling took place on Chinese land. According to an Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs source, the letter is threatening since it promotes the Nine-Dashed Line, a Chinese unilateral claim to the South China Sea that breaches the EEZs of more than five Southeast Asian nations. However, the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' statement, according to The Diplomat (2021), emphasized Indonesia's sovereign prerogative and declared that drilling would not be suspended (Basundoro, 2021). Indonesia must bolster its political and security clout to counter China's ongoing aggressiveness. Given the ineffectiveness of ASEAN centrality in deterring rising Chinese incursions and regional instability, Indonesia should strengthen its strategic autonomy to retain its sovereignty and keep regional threats under control. Meanwhile, strengthening bilateral connections with AUKUS members might be a strategic move, as the mini-lateral forum provides a solid framework for regional security cooperation, notably in naval capability development. Despite the Indonesian Foreign Ministry's reservations about its formation, Indonesia has already begun bilateral negotiations with AUKUS members. In September 2021, a two-plus-two meeting between the Indonesian and Australian Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence highlighted both nations' resolve to strengthen their security cooperation and, as a result, reaffirm their commitment to China. International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 295 While a strategic partnership with AUKUS may be advantageous and strengthen Indonesia's influence, it should not be assumed. Beijing may see any future cooperation with AUKUS as a "betrayal," worried that Indonesia has breached its neutrality by joining the Western military alliance. This event would strengthen China's erroneous impression of Indonesia, perhaps jeopardizing economic ties between the two countries. Despite its territorial incursions, China is Indonesia's most significant commercial partner. Furthermore, as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, the two nations have pledged to work on crucial infrastructure projects (BRI). Consequently, Jakarta attempts to maintain a balanced relationship between China and the West based on neutrality and an active foreign policy. Indonesia may be able to emphasize firmly in the context of the G20 that regional peace must be a top priority. Conflicts of interest, trade politics, budget competition, and regional defense equipment may add to regional tensions and stress. It must be the glue that keeps conflict communication together. The US, its allies, and China are all members of the G20. Foreign Clandestine Operation, the Urge to Counter-intelligence. The holding of the G20 in cities in Indonesia increases the possibility of foreign intelligence operations to collect data or information that is publicly available to support the accomplishment of the national interests of each country. The events allow many foreign representatives to attend every series of work programs in the G20. Besides the series of events, the representative will undoubtedly explore the cities where the event occurs, build interaction with the local community, and interact with information circulating among residents. The use of human intelligence, who are proficient, may take advantage of this opportunity as a loophole to extract information from the public, which may be related to the community's perspective on political affiliation, the direction of government policies, the legitimacy of the head of state in local communities, for example. These statements contain information that can be useful for foreign parties to formulate policies, map vulnerabilities and opportunities, and promote their national interests. Strategic intelligence is remarkably needed to optimize Indonesia in advancing national interests and national security. The function of strategic intelligence as a collection and analysis technique must be utilized to reveal the hidden agenda of particular countries and conduct counter-intelligence against actions that can harm the state. Thus, Indonesia's opportunities can be maximized, and the impact of weaknesses can be minimized. In addition, intelligence carries out counter-intelligence activities—steps are taken to prevent the activities of foreign intelligence agencies from attempting to carry out activities that could harm the intelligence agencies of the receiving country. Typically, infiltration is done to support espionage, subversion, sabotage, and even terrorism. However, counter-intelligence aims to detect, prevent, and find indications and evidence of foreign intelligence activities in a broader sense. At the same time, the struggle for their national interests has used illegal means by utilizing methods and techniques of covert activities that could be detrimental to the recipient country's national interest. The strategies and approaches to advancing Indonesia's interests in multilateral forums are different from diplomacy in general. Intelligence needs to play a role by using Strategic Intelligence. This secret instrument may deploy inside or outside the national territory to protect national interests. In the context of international relations, intelligence can be applied through covert action or espionage. There are three primary missions: collecting and evaluating data/information, counter-intelligence (which can thwart the efforts of opposing intelligence services in gathering information about our country), and covert action—designed to influence the internal or external policies of a target country. If the strategic intelligence is successful, at least information about the hidden agendas of other countries in multilateral forums will be identified and prevent other countries from knowing our country's hidden agendas. Hence, by utilizing this information, the decisionmaker can anticipate the hidden agendas of other countries' interests. In supporting diplomatic negotiations and lobbying efforts, intelligence agencies play a role in conducting intelligence operations, collecting information and analyzing the concerns of target International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences ISSN 2720-9644 (print); ISSN 2721-0871 (online) https://journalkeberlanjutan.com/index.php/ijesss 296 countries on multilateral cooperation, and making efforts to change the policies of target countries to establish multilateral cooperation with Indonesia. Intelligence cooperation may be designated within diplomacy efforts. Diplomacy and intelligence cooperation are formed through the intelligence community as policy support for the state. Thus, resulting in multilateral cooperation through an understanding of mutual benefits. The intelligence operations seek and capture current opportunities and play a role in anticipating threats, challenges, obstacles and disturbances in the forged cooperation. For example, a hidden agenda causes Indonesia to experience more significant losses or losses. In multilateral cooperation, Indonesia must attract as much support as possible from other participants. Our prioritized agendas can be accepted and become mutual agreements. CONCLUSION National interests and goals are the fundamental motivation for countries to collaborate bilaterally or multilaterally. The goals of self-help and survival a la Realism are still relevant to be used as a framework for each country's thinking that they are obliged to maintain their security. The G20 multilateral forum is a representation and dialogue platform to establish meetings between countries to establish or continue bilateral and multilateral relations. The forum can result in an agreement or hold a discussion to discuss a particular issue. However, its strategy is difficult to predict in achieving its national goals. Assisted by the role of intelligence, the national goals are increasingly visible. For this reason, it is necessary to have the skills of diplomats or representatives of the state to catch the signal of interest. Indonesia's G20 presidency has several priority agendas: global leadership for handling the pandemic, digital-based economic integrity and connectivity, and encouraging human resource productivity. However, it is also necessary to be aware of other countries' agendas that are offensive or undermine Indonesia's interests in carrying out its national interests. Therefore, anticipation and mitigation are needed to minimize the negative impact of the influence of foreign countries. For this reason, strategic steps are needed in responding to the political maneuvers of foreign countries. Benny Wenda said narratives that have horrible connotations for Indonesia on the page. Indonesia needs to be aware of issues that can corner its position, such as the discourse on Papuan independence, which is often echoed by Western countries under the pretext of democracy and Indonesian occupation in Papua. It can harm Indonesia from the narrative that accuses Indonesia as a country of gross human rights violators. Because if we look at the mass media, there are many campaigns from human rights activists or neighboring countries who think that the Indonesian government needs to release Papua. Websites freewestpapua.org and genocidewatch.com, for example, openly solicit assistance from the international community to liberate Papua. This issue needs to be discussed in constructive and careful dialogue for the safety of the nation’s integrity. Another issue currently in the spotlight is China's politics in the South China Sea, bringing regional vulnerabilities to the border. This issue involving many countries was then added to the complexity due to the emergence of AUKUS as a new defense pact in the Indo-Pacific region, creating resistance for China and forcing Indonesia to return to 'paddling between two reefs'. The dilemma and the risks faced are in the form of 'partisanship', injuring Indonesia's neutrality in any defense block. Moreover, both the West and China significantly influence the Indonesian economy and defense. Hence, Indonesia needs to carry out constructive and proportional diplomacy so that both do not put more pressure on Indonesia's interests. Intelligence functions and skills can assist the state in mapping out opportunities and challenges, which then creates strategic steps in achieving national interests. In the strategic intelligence approach, the ban on palm oil exports by the European Union is also a challenge in itself that must be handled carefully. 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