285 ANALYSIS OF EMIGRATION AND SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHIC CONDITIONS ON DIVORCE AND ECONOMIC LEVELS IN EAST JAVA Volume: 4 Number: 1 Page: 285 - 296 Zamhir ZAMHIR1, Khusnul ASHAR2, Dias SATRIA3 1,2,3Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Brawijaya, Indonesia Corresponding author: Zamhir E-mail: zamhir29@gmail.com Article History: Received: 2022-12-08 Revised: 2023-01-07 Accepted: 2023-01-16 Abstract: Economic development is one of the essential pillars for attaining people's well- being. Indonesia is one of the largest migrant worker contributors in Southeast Asia, where East Java is its biggest supplier. However, the high number of migrant workers and the improving economic condition in the province are followed by the increasing number of divorce cases, which are interesting to study further. It has been widely believed that the driver for people to become migrant workers is the hope of having better economic opportunities. In fact, following the attainment, they have problems with their marriage, which lead to divorce. The objective of this research is to identify the effect of emigration and socio- demographic condition on the divorce rate and economic level in East Java. The multiple linear regression and probit model analyses have led to findings that emigration positively and significantly affects divorce cases in East Java, that emigration does not significantly influence the economic status of the migrant workers, that divorce does not influence the economic gains of the workers in the short run, and that migrant workers who are older, male, and better in education have a significant influence on the income increase of migrant workers in East Java. Keywords: Emigration, Socio-Demography, Divorce, Economic Level. Cite this as: ZAMHIR., ASHAR, K., & DIAS, S. (2023). β€œAnalysis of Emigration and Social Demographic Conditions on Divorce and Economic Levels in East Java”. International Journal of Environmental, Sustainability, and Social Sciences, 4 (1), 285 - 296. INTRODUCTION Economic development is geared towards bringing people to better welfare improvements, and this is not an easy job. Economic development is one of the crucial pillars of improving people's welfare. Economics itself talks about 3 important concepts that are interrelated, namely limited resources, choice, and economic decision-making, as an effort to achieve prosperity and optimal society. As we know, development makes society a subject as well as an object of development itself. The development would only be meaningful with the community, and in addition, development is intended for the community (Kaufman & Hotchkiss, 2011), including one regarding migration. Migration is one of the three basic factors that influence population growth. Migration can increase the number of people if the number of people entering an area is more than the number of people leaving the area. Conversely, migration can reduce the number of inhabitants if the number of inhabitants entering a territory is less than the number of inhabitants leaving the territory. The study of migration regionally and locally is important with regard to the density or density and uneven distribution of the population. This inequality is caused, among others, by driving and attracting factors for migratory people (Munir, 2010). Migration can be defined as the movement of a population from one place to another, either permanent (residing in a new place for at least 340 days) or semi-permanent (only staying for 15 days counted from the beginning of his move to the place), which crosses administrative boundaries or boundary parts within a country or region or also go beyond political boundaries or national mailto:zamhir29@gmail.com 286 borders. (Pratiwi, 2007). Lee (in Chotib, 2012) defines migration as a permanent or semi-permanent change of residence, without disputing the near distance of displacement, easy or difficult, forced or voluntary, as well as domestically or abroad. The issue of human resources is the subject of discussion in migration activities. This human resources (HR) problem causes the development process that has been running so far to be less supported by adequate labor productivity. Human capital investment is a cost that must be sacrificed in the form of money, time, and the opportunity to form better human capital in the future. Meanwhile, economists often use human capital for education, health, and other human capacities that can increase productivity if things are improved. Human resources are essential for developed and developing countries to maximize the potential possessed by the regions (Sukirno, 2013). The classical theory of assumptions embraced by Adam Smith is considered the main production factor determining the nation's prosperity. According to him, the budding of the economic growth of a region lies in the effective allocation of human resources. A region's economic activity depends on the conditions of its job market. Workers who produce goods/services obtain a kind of reciprocity from where they work in the form of salary/wages. On the contrary, the unemployed population will burden the state and for itself. Problems in the job market as above can occur because there is no balance between the demand and supply of labor. A common thing that happens in the market is the high supply of labor. However, on the other hand, there are limitations in employment experienced by developing countries such as Indonesia, which is the cause of migration. Indonesia is one of the largest contributors to migrant workers in Southeast Asia. Indonesian Migrant Workers (PMI), formerly known as TKI, are increasingly in demand by many people, and this cannot be separated from the limited employment opportunities in Indonesia. The development of Indonesian Migrant Workers certainly has negative and positive sides. On the positive side for the country, it is to become a granary of foreign exchange. Meanwhile, the negative side, namely for migrant families who are left behind, causes disharmony in the household. Socio-demographic studies have found that international migration can increase divorces (e.g., Andersson and Scott, 2010; Frank and Wildsmith, 2005; Hill, 2004; Landale and Ogena, 1995). There are two explanations for that. First, the act of migration is a stressful life event, generating a greater probability of divorce (Boyle et al., 2008), and the stress associated with this displacement may be increased when it has crossed international borders. Second, migration policies have become stricter, making it difficult to migrate as a family. As a result, more and more families are geographically separated and faced with the challenge of transnational organizing family life. While transnational living may not be problematic for some, for others, it can cause marital stress and eventually result in divorce. There are several regions from which PMI originates. Of the 34 provinces in Indonesia that are permanent PMI suppliers per year, there are 19 provinces. The 19 provinces are North Sumatra, Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, Jambi, Lampung, Riau, Banten, DKI Jakarta, Central Java, West Java, DI Yogyakarta, Bali, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, South Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, West Sumatra and East Kalimantan. East Java Province is one of the most PMI supplier provinces in Indonesia. In 2018 (November), data from BNP2TKI was recorded at 57,544. While for the second place, there is the province of Central Java, 52,753, and the third place is the province of West Java, 51,180. One of the problems of the government, both central and regional, is the availability of employment for its population. The availability of employment is often not sufficient. Based on data from the 287 Indonesian Migrant Workers Protection Agency (BP2MI), most Indonesian Migrant Workers (PMII) departed abroad from East Java. See Figure 1 below: Source: BP2MI (2020) Figure 1. Provinces Contributing the Most Migrant Workers in 2018-2020 Figure 1 above shows that although the trend of sending immigrant workers has decreased, East Java Province remains the largest contributor to Indonesian Migrant Workers, followed by Central Java, West Java, NTB and Lampung. The latest data in 2022 shows that East Java Province has the highest number of migrant workers, namely 3,117 (29%), Central Java as many as 844 (7.7%) from Bali. This condition shows that East Java Province has a high potential to send migrant workers. Meanwhile, when viewed based on the most popular destination countries, Hong Kong is around 1,908 people (64.18 percent), Taiwan is around 810 people (27.25 percent), while the rest is around 8.57 percent is PMI to Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam (BPS, 2019). However, in terms of the number of remittance shipments, migrant workers in the Middle East are the largest contributors to remittances compared to Southeast Asia or Asia, where the value reached US$ 809 million (Bank Indonesia, 2020). When viewed by country, Saudi Arabia is the largest remittance- sending country (see Figure 2). Source: Bank Indonesia (2020) Figure 2. Most significant Number of PMI Remittances By Country of Origin in 2020 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Jawa Timur Jawa Tengah Jawa Barat Nusa Tenggara Barat Lampung 2018 2019 2020 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Singapura Hong Kong Taiwan Malaysia Arab Saudi In U S $ M il li o n 288 However, the high number of migrant workers and the improving economic conditions in East Java were followed by an increase in the number or rate of divorces among migrant workers. Various regions in East Java reported an increase in divorce cases. In the first quarter, the number of divorce lawsuits that came in was 2,677, which was as many as files, but for filing divorce lawsuits reached 1,485 filing files. Based on the 1,485 case reports, 1,124 files have been decided by the Malang Regency Religious Court (Toski, 2019). As reported by The Jakarta Post that the Blitar Religious Court accepted 2,000 divorce applications generally made by women migrant workers. Of the 1,839 application cases that have been submitted, 1,309 were filed by the woman (wife), while the rest were by the husband (Hasani, 2019) Divorce cases often occur in migrant families. This is caused by several factors, including internal factors and external factors. Where these internal factors come from within or internal family problems such as lack of intense communication or interaction, lack of optimality in solving a problem, there is boredom from both sides, and there begins to be a sense of incompatibility with each other. Meanwhile, external factors come from outside the family sphere such as social currents, third parties' presence, and others' influence. Of these two things, this divorce occurred due to their failure to carry out their respective role bonds (Ihromi, 2019). So it can be said that divorce is a result of dysfunction of the roles carried out by husband and wife in the family, one of which is as a migrant worker. The existence of divorce cases in the families of migrant workers is interesting to investigate further. Because as agreed, the impetus to become a migrant worker is to get better economic opportunities but after that, it causes a shock to relations Household with a divorce. Mortelmans (2020) in Economic Consequences of Divorce, explains that consistent findings in the literature suggest women are economically disadvantaged after divorce. Men tend to lose little or no income after a divorce, whereas financial losses for women can be substantial. All studies examining the financial consequences of relationship separation have found that income declines are greater and recovery periods are more difficult and more protracted among parents (especially mothers) rather than among childless individuals (e.g., Jarvis and Jenkins 1999; Mortelmans and Jansen 2010). Therefore, the focus of research on the financial consequences of divorce for parents turns to the problem of poverty for couples who take care of the couple's children after the breakup (in many cases, mothers) (Mortelmans, 2020). The results of Saputra's research (2018) in Indonesia show that one of the causes of divorce is the high number of female workers. Furthermore, Eliza Umami (2013) said that the social impact of migration is divorce and poor child conditions. Meanwhile, the economic impact includes the transformation of jobs, incomes, expenditures and consumption patterns as well as the investment of migrant families using remittances to pay debt and investments. Hakim's research (2004) says that labor migration triggers factors that cause divorce, namely economic and biological factors. Economic factors begin with changes in the role of breadwinners or major contributors to the economy, the role of managing household finances, and changes in power authority in the family caused by changing traditional roles. This study tries to fill in the gaps in how overseas and socio-demographic migration affects the divorce rate and economy of migrant workers in East Java. The objectives of this study are 1) Knowing the effect of overseas migration on the divorce status of migrants in East Java. 2) Knowing the effect of overseas migration on the economic status of migrants in East Java. 3) Knowing the effect of divorce on the economic status of migrants in East Java. 4) Knowing the influence of socio- demographic conditions on the economic status of migrant workers in East Java. 289 METHODS In order to explain the direction or train of thought of the researcher when explaining the topic under study, the conceptual framework of this research is compiled. The conceptual framework's purpose is to answer research questions and the relationships between them. Based on this understanding, the conceptual framework used in this study can be described as follows: Source: Data processed by author, (2019) Figure 3. Conceptual Framework The conceptual framework in this study starts from the magnitude of outbound migration flows where the variable calculated is the number of PMI (Indonesian Migrant Workers) which is quite a lot in East Java. This greatly affects the economic conditions of migrant families and also affects the divorce rate of migrant families themselves. This study tried to examine the effect of migration and divorce of migrant families on economic status. With this research, it is hoped to determine the extent of the influence of migration and divorce on the economic level. This is seen from the number of PMI, income which is a variable of the economic level and the number of divorces specifically for PMI families in East Java. According to Suliyanto (2009:53), "A hypothesis is a temporary answer that wants to be tested for truth through research". It is said to be a quick answer because the hypothesis is the answer to the problem formulated in the formulation of the problem, while the truth of the hypothesis needs to be tested first through data analysis. In this study, there are two models so there are two bound variables, namely: 1) divorce status and 2) economic level. Based on the hypothesis model, a research hypothesis can be formulated as follows: H1: It is suspected that overseas migration affects the divorce status of migrants in East Java H2: It is suspected that overseas migration affects the economic status of migrants in East Java H3: It is suspected that divorce affects the economic status of migrants in East Java H4: It is suspected that socio-demographic conditions affect the economic status of migrant workers in East Java The research method is used as a guide or guide for researchers in conducting their research so that results are obtained in accordance with the problem and conclusions appropriately. Research methods can be interpreted as a scientific way to obtain valid data with the aim that it is found, developed, and proven by a specific knowledge so that, in turn, it can be used to understand, solve, and anticipate problems (Sugiyono, 2010:5). Research Data and Variables. This study used quantitative data, which, according to the source, included secondary data. Quantitative data is data in the form of a collection of numbers, while secondary data is data obtained not directly. The secondary data here uses time series data Migrant Divorce Rate Economic Level of Migrants Migration and Socio- Demographics Migration and Socio- Demographics towards divorce through the economic level 290 or also called annual data, and data between spaces (cross-section). The entire secondary data used in this study was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The data used in this study are secondary data obtained by researchers from various existing sources. According to Sarwono (2006), research with secondary data uses data not from the first source to obtain data or information to answer the problem under study so that this secondary data comes from the second, third, and so on. It can be interpreted that the data in this study has passed through one or more parties who are not researchers themselves. Therefore, accuracy and examination need to be carried out. The data used in this study is from the National Energy Survey (Sakernas) collected by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of the Republic of Indonesia. Sakernas February 2017 was held in all provinces in the territory of the Republic of Indonesia. The size of the February 2017 Sakernas sample was 5,000 census blocks or 50,000 households to obtain estimated data up to the provincial level. Meanwhile, in Sakernas August, the sample size was 20,000 census blocks, consisting of 5,000 census blocks of the February Sakernas sample, and 15,000 census blocks were additional Sakernas samples. The additional sample of 15,000 census blocks is intended to obtain estimated data up to the district/city level. In the study, 419 samples met the criteria as Indonesian migrant workers in East Java. Dependent Variables. This study will first test the probability of overseas migration by migrant workers against divorce status using the probit model. Then, with the status of divorce and overseas migration carried out by migrant workers, it was tested using Multiple Linear Regression to determine the relationship of their influence on the economic status of migrant workers as measured by the amount of income earned each month. Therefore, this study's dependent variables are twofold: divorce status (variable dummy) and the economic level of migrant workers. Independent Variable. In order to achieve the research objectives, the variables used in this study are grouped into three, namely: (a) Overseas migration, that is, the movement of residents from one region to another, in this case abroad, with the aim of working. In this case, migration is calculated by the number of PMIs working abroad; (b) PMI divorce status, which is the divorce status of migrants measured using dummy variables; (c) Pmi's social demographic condition, which is the social condition of PMI, is viewed based on age, gender, education, and occupation. According to Ghozali (2016), descriptive statistics are statistics that are used to analyze data by describing or describing the data that has been collected as it is without intending to make conclusions that apply to the general public or generalizations. Data Analysis Methods. Probit analysis is used to determine the probability of migrant workers getting divorced because the first dependent variable studied is qualitative/dichotomous/dummy or included in binary logistics. The equation of the probit model for research is as follows: π‘Œ = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑋1 + 𝛽2𝑋2 + 𝛽3 𝑋3 + 𝛽4 𝑋4 + 𝛽5 𝑋5 + 𝛽6 𝐷6 + 𝑒 Information: Y : PMI divorce probability (1= divorced) X1 : Dummy migration status (1 = migrant worker) X2 : Income X3 : Age X4 : Dummy gender (1 = male) X5 : Level of education (length of schooling) X6 : Type of work (number of hours worked) 291 Then, multiple linear regression analysis is used to determine the influence between independent variables on dependent variables. So multiple regression analysis will be carried out if the number of independent variables is at least two (Sugiyono, 2017). As for the equation of multiple linear regression, it can be formulated as follows: π‘Œ = π‘Ž + 𝛽1 𝑋1 + 𝛽2 𝑋2 . . . . . . . + 𝛽8 𝑋8 + 𝑒 Information: Y : Economic level (Income) X1 : Dummy divorce PMI (1 = PMI divorced) X2 : Dummy country of migration destination (1 = Southeast Asia) X3 : Dummy country of migration destination (1= Asia) X4 : Dummy country of migration destination (1 = Middle East) X5 : Age X6 : Dummy gender (1 = male) X7 : Level of education (length of schooling) X8 : Type of work (number of hours worked) Ξ²0 : Constant Ξ²1- Ξ²6 : Regression coefficient Ɛ : Residual RESULT AND DISCUSSION Based on the analysis conducted to determine the tendency of migrant workers to divorce in East Java, a probit analysis was carried out. The following are the results of estimating the probability of divorce of migrant workers using the probit regression model. Table 1. Estimation of the Effect of Overseas Migration on Divorce in East Java Probit Regression Number of obs = 42,781 LR chi2 (6) = 9013.68 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log-likelihood = -13720.162 Pseudo R2 = 0.2473 Divorce Coef. Std. Err. z p> ┃z┃ [95% Conf. Interval] Stmigration .3255848 .0926034 3.52 0.000 .1440854 .5070842 Income 2.06e-08 8.00e-09 2.58 0.010 4.98e-09 3.63e-08 Age .0433046 .0006837 63.34 0.000 .0419645 .0446447 Sex -.7646104 .0183786 -41.60 0.000 -.8006317 -.728589 Schoolingtime -.0249254 .0019925 -12.51 0.000 -.0288307 -.0210201 D_Workingtime -.0512951 .0314581 -1.63 0.103 -.1129518 .0103617 _Cons -2.845263 .043086 -66.04 0.000 -2.92971 -2.760816 Source: Processed by Sakernas, 2022 It is known that the status of overseas migration has a positive and significant effect on divorce in East Java. In accordance with a study conducted by Wilekens & Kulu (2018), that migration abroad can increase the risk of divorce. The reason is that couples who work abroad have a higher risk of divorce than couples who have never worked abroad. Physical arak that occurs when one of the spouses works abroad can affect the quality of communication and interaction between the spouses, thereby increasing the risk of divorce. In addition, the new cultural and environmental differences that one of the couples has to face can generate stress and pressure that can affect the stability of the home relationship stairs. 292 A person's high-income level also influences the decision to divorce which can happen for several reasons. First, someone with a higher income may be better able to bear the costs of divorce and live independently afterward, so they are more likely to decide to divorce than people with lower incomes. In addition, people with higher incomes may be more likely to have access to legal aid and counseling services, which can assist them in making informed decisions about divorce. People with lower incomes may not have access to such services, so they may be less understanding of the legal and emotional implications of divorce, and therefore are more likely to stay together even if their relationship is not harmonious. Age is also a significant factor determining the decision to divorce. According to studies by Kim & Axinn (2008) and Manning & Brown (2006) in the Journal of Marriage and Family, a person's age can influence the decision to divorce. The study found that younger people were more likely to divorce than older people. Scientifically, this can be explained by the theory of human growth and development. At a young age, a person is still in an intense stage of growth and development, and they may be more easily affected by factors such as peer pressure, changes in needs and priorities, and changes in the financial situation. This can make them more inclined to make drastic decisions, such as divorce, to overcome problems in their relationship. According to several studies by Schoettle (2010), women tend to be more likely to divorce than men. One of the explanations is that women are more likely to experience domestic violence than men, and domestic violence is one of the factors that can increase the risk of divorce. People with low levels of education tend to be more likely to divorce than people with a high level of education. One of the explanations is that people with low education may lack the skills to manage problems and conflicts in their relationships, so they are more likely to experience failures in their relationships and eventually divorce (Schoettle, 2010; Breault & Breault, 2008). In addition, people with low education may also lack access to legal aid and counseling services, which can assist them in making informed decisions about divorce. This can make them more reluctant to divorce and more inclined to look for alternative solutions to overcome problems in their relationship. People with higher working hours are more likely to divorce than those with lower working hours. One explanation is that people with higher working hours may have less time to manage problems and conflicts in their relationships, making them more likely to experience failures in their relationships and eventually divorce. In addition, people with higher working hours may also experience higher stress and stress, which can affect their mental and emotional health. This can make them more prone to problems in their relationship and more likely to divorce (Bartley, M., & Carter, S., 2009). Table 2. Remedial Estimation of the Effect of Foreign Migration and Socioeconomic Status on the Income of Migrant Workers in East Java Source SS df MS Number of obs = 381 Model 3.2430e+13 8 4.0538e+12 F (8, 372) = 5.71 Residual 2.6405e+14 372 7.0980e+14 Prob > F = 0.0000 Total 2.9648e+14 380 7.8020e+11 R-squared = 0.1094 Adj R-squared = 0.0902 Root MSE = 8.4e+05 Income Coef. Std. Err. t p> ┃t┃ [95% Conf. Interval] Divorce 370713.3 146264.5 2.53 0.012 83104.33 658322.3 Asia -127853.9 271018 -0.47 0.637 -660773.4 405065.5 Southeast 110278.4 252237.2 0.44 0.662 -385711.1 606268 middleeast -28662.7 278426.3 -0.10 0.918 -576149.5 518824.1 Age -12592.44 4844.542 -2.60 0.010 -22118.56 -3066.314 293 Sex 441078.2 100637.9 4.38 0.000 243187.8 638968.7 Schoolingtime 23428.77 12324.94 1.90 0.058 -806.5153 47644.05 D_worktime -163253.6 170379.7 -0.96 0.339 -498281.8 171774.5 _cons 341136.4 362977.9 0.94 0.348 -372609.4 1054882 Source: Processed by Sakernas, 2022 From the results of regression estimates, it is known that divorce has a positive and significant effect on the income level of migrant workers in East Java. This is in accordance with previous studies that stated that divorce can increase a person's income in the short term, but can lower their income in the long run. After a divorce, a person will likely have access to resources and wealth previously shared with their spouse, so they will likely have a higher income in the short term. However, in the long run, divorce can lower a person's income because they may experience economic hardship due to the cost of divorce and live independently afterward. In addition, divorce can also decrease a person's quality of life, which can affect their performance at work and lower their income (Bartley & Carter, 2009). Meanwhile, the country of destination for migration does not have a significant effect on income levels. However, according to Chiswick, B. R., & Miller, P. W. (2002); Ottaviano, G. I., & Peri, G. (2006), migrant destination countries can influence a person's income level. One explanation is that countries with higher income levels and more jobs will offer better job opportunities for migrants so that they will have higher incomes than countries with lower income levels. In addition, countries with better social protection systems can provide financial support for migrants experiencing economic hardship to have a more stable income than countries with weak social protection systems. Migran with old age has a lower income than migrants with young age. One of the explanations is that migrants with old age may lack the skills and work experience needed in their destination country, so it may be challenging to get a quality job and earn a high income. People with old age may also have difficulty adjusting to the new culture and environment in their destination country, so they may find it difficult to integrate and gain access to better job opportunities. This can affect their income and cause lower incomes (Chiswick & Miller, 2002; Dustmann & Preston, 2005). Male migrants with higher levels of education have higher incomes than female migrants. One explanation is that men are more likely to have the skills and work experience needed in their destination country, so they find it easier to get quality jobs and earn a high income (Dustmann & Preston, 2005). Men are also more likely to work in more lucrative sectors and have the opportunity to rise through the ranks and earn more significant raises than women. This can affect their income and cause them to have a higher income. Meanwhile, the number of hours worked is negatively and insignificantly related to income levels. One explanation is that migrants will probably work more hours to make ends meet, but this does not necessarily guarantee that they will earn higher incomes (Chiswick & Miller, 2002). In addition, a high number of hours worked can also cause migrants to experience fatigue and stress, which can affect their performance at work and lower their income. Therefore, the number of hours worked is not always a factor affecting the income of migrants. 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