








key: cord-287823-avi14ee5
authors: Wong, Martin CS; Teoh, Jeremy YC; Huang, Junjie; Wong, Sunny H
title: The potential impact of vulnerability and coping capacity on the pandemic control of COVID-19
date: 2020-05-28
journal: J Infect
DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.05.060
sha: 
doc_id: 287823
cord_uid: avi14ee5

• The European commission has developed an index for risk management named INFORM; • Two dimensions (vulnerability and lack of coping capacity) are relevant to COVID-19; • We examined if these dimensions were associated with COVID-19 pandemic control; • Higher vulnerability and poorer coping capacity were associated with poorer control; • Modifying these two dimensions might potentially mitigate COVID-19 pandemic control.

 We examined if these dimensions were associated with COVID-19 pandemic control  Higher vulnerability and poorer coping capacity were associated with poorer control  Modifying these two dimensions might potentially mitigate COVID-19 pandemic control Dear Editor, Worldwide, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has induced a substantial global burden.

Since its first diagnosis in Wuhan, China, its spread has affected 216 countries. 1 As of 16 May, 2020 , there were more than 4.4 million cases and greater than 302,000 confirmed deaths among patients with COVID-19. Arguably, some nations with lower capacity to cope with the pandemic, especially in low and middle-income countries, might have poorer control of the disease.

However, no previous study has proven this association. On the contrary, a recent study published in the Journal of Infection examined the association between country-specific global health security index (GHSI) and the burden of COVID-19, but the findings showed that countries with higher GHSI did not have higher COVID-19 rate and had greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. 2 Hence, further exploration of the association between country capacity and COVID-19 burden is needed based on other indicators. ) and vulnerable groups (uprooted people or other groups). It represents the economic, political and social features of the populations that can be destabilised in the event of a hazardous incident. 3 The lack of coping capacity measures if a country is unable to cope with disasters through the government's effort and existing infrastructure. It could be institutional (disaster risk reduction and governance) or infrastructure-related (communication, physical infrastructure, and access to health systems). We aimed to evaluate if countries with lower vulnerability and higher coping capacity were associated with better control of the COVID-19 pandemic, as measured by incidence and mortality outcomes.

We established a panel of experts consisting of epidemiologists, physicians, and public health professionals who were tasked to determine the outcomes used in this study based on literature review. After discussion the panel determined the following outcome variables: the maximum 14-day cumulative incidence rate per 100,000 population since the first case (22 January to 30 April, 2020); and the incidence and mortality per 100,000 population within 30 days since the first COVID-19 diagnosis and first COVID-19 related death, respectively, from the Johns Hopkins Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE). 4 The variables tested for association with these outcomes included the COVID-19 vulnerability and the COVID-19 lack of coping capacity as of 2018. Three linear regression models were constructed for the three outcomes whilst adjusting for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the same year for each nation; 5 and the population density of each country from the World Population Review. 6 The study was approved by the Survey and Behavioral Research Ethics Committee of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (SBRE-19-592). All p values ≤ 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

The distribution of vulnerability and coping capacity scores was shown in Figure 1 . The COVID-19 vulnerability score was the highest in Italy (score 8.2 out of 10), Japan (8.2), Croatia (8.1) and Latvia (8.1). Countries with the severest lack of coping capacity included Central African Republic (9.4), Comoros (9.1), Equatorial Guinea (7.7), and Burundi (7.6). From multivariate regression analysis ( Table 1) , countries with higher vulnerability were significantly associated with higher maximum 14-day cumulative incidence since the first case ( coefficient Our findings imply that reducing vulnerability and enhancing capacity to cope could potentially mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the components of the two predictor variables are modifiable, countries that aim to increase their capability to combat the COVID-19 pandemics could make reference to the detailed subcategories under these two dimensions. The government could consider to take active steps in enhancing the resilience of the society and availability of 6 measures that could protect the vulnerable population. Nevertheless, there are limitations of our study. Firstly, there may be other confounders that could not be controlled for, including personal behaviour and the stringency of Governmental policies, 7 such as measures related to social distancing, school closure, supply of personal protective equipment (PPE), as well as quarantine and containment strategies. [8] [9] [10] In addition, the COVID-19 vulnerability used was developed in 2018, and we assumed that the index of each country did not change before the beginning of the pandemic in 2019. Also, we should emphasize that these are preliminary findings, and the cause-and-effect relationships are yet to be further examined by larger-scale studies.

In conclusion, we identified vulnerability and ability to cope as two important aspects in the face of an infectious disease pandemic, and they bear a potential impact to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Future studies should evaluate the specific components of these indices that exert the greatest impact on pandemic control. Table 1 The association between vulnerability index, ability to cope score and the incidence/mortality outcomes related to COVID Table 1 The association between vulnerability index, ability to cope score and the incidence/mortality outcomes related to COVID 

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The 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) data repository by Johns Hopkins Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE). Available at

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