A GENERAlIZED MErnOOOLOGY TO EsTABUSH A VALUE OF 11IE INmAL FRANOllSE CoSTS Graham R. Mitenko University of Nebraska - Omaha Omaha, Nebraska Introduction The strategic decision whether to operate an enterprise as a sole proprietor or with a partner has plagued entrepreneurs for many years. A partnership is usually advantageous over a sole proprietorship if, with the inclusion of a partner, some type of synergy is achieved. In the generic sense, this synergy is what franchising attempts to produce. One type of synergy which franchising provides is knowledge, more specifically, strategic operational experience. The franchisors provide operational experience to blend with the sole proprietor's capital in an attempt to make a business more successful. Sole propri- etors, therefore, attempt to reposition themselves and their establishment on the industry's learning curve by joining forces with a franchisor. The purpose of this research is to establish the value of this repositioning by presenting a model using a quantitative ap- proach for assessing the benefits of the franchising contract. Background and Literature Review An appropriate description of the literature in the franchising area is best descnbed in a quote by Caves and Murphy [6], Franchised businesses account for over 38% of all retail sales in the United States and originate 12% of the gross national product, yet the franchise ele- ment has largely escaped economic analysis. The published articles in franchising generally follow two broad based sub-areas of franchising. The first sub-area of the literature focuses on organizational economics. In a classic article, Coase [7] stated that economic organizations follow one or two general forms. The first form an organization will follow is that of the market organization. That is, the market that a firm is competing in helps develop and conform the firm to the market demands. The second form an organization will follow is that of the firm's or- ganization. A firm's organization is a pre-ordained market structure, not influenced as much by the market forces, as it is by head office dictum. Organizational and manage- rial topics are explored in a number of articles ([2], [6], [23], [18], [21]). The second sub-area compares the operations of franchisees with that of the franchisors. Research in this area compares the performance of franchisees with that of franchisors ([3], [16], [11], [22]) and also explores the trade-offs between franchise fees and agency problems ([4], [5], [21]). 16 Journal ofBusiness Strategies Vol. B,No. 1 Many articles provide purely qualitative criteria by which franchises can be evaluated. These articles are usually found in publications such as Venture, Money, INC, and Busi- ness Week. The finance area is replete with articles dealing with valuation, however, empirical studies in the area of franchise valuation have not been as plentiful in the management and operations area. The equations used in this research were primarily derived and developed by the author. Statement of the Problem Franchising comprises a significant portion of American business. The International Trade Administration states "... that franchise 'business accounted for $591 billion in an- nual sales in 1987. Retail franchising amount to $515 billion which is 33% of total U.S. retail sales" [17]. The purported benefit of buying into a franchise is the reduction of risk gained by the repositioning of the sole proprietorship on the individual business' learning curve. How- ever, since the same business also can be a non-franchised independent sole proprietor- ship, an evaluation should be made to determine whether joining a franchise provides risk reduction equal to or greater than the purchase price of the franchise. The purpose of this study is to present and test a model for determining the value of joining a fran- chised organization. The test will determine if becoming a franchisee is a prudent in- vestment Research Design The prospective income from business assets gives them value [25]. In the case of a franchise, value accrues from the help and additional operational knowledge provided by the franchisor to the franchisee. The transference of entrepreneurial expertise repositions the franchisee on that industry's learning curve. The benefit of this repositioning may be measured by the decrease in entrepreneurial failure rates of new franchises versus new non-franchised firms. The success rates may also be calculated for both the new fran- chises versus new non-franchised firms (note: 1.0 - the failure rates = the success rates). The value of the franchising license can be calculated using the difference in the success rates between franchised and non-franchised firms. This research looks at comparable investments of both franchised and non-franchised businesses. This is not to suggest that the same type of business could not be entered into on a non-comparable basis, but non-franchised operations are usually smaller and do not have the capital resources to consider franchising as an option. For example, a sole proprietor could open a small hamburger shack for considerably less than a McDonalds outlet, however, the businesses would not compare in types of operations. This rese~h is interested in comparing franchised and non-franchised businesses for like operations in which the initial investment for establishing the businesses are essentially the same. Assuming identical businesses (ie., identical assets and products), the cost of opening a business to a non-franchisee (independent sole proprietor) is equal to that of a franchi- Spring 1991 Mitenko: Generalized Methodology 17 see less the licensing costs. Almost all basic business expenses remain the same regard- less of whether the business is independent or franchised [14]. For example, one could open a hamburger stand identical to McDonalds, serve the same generic food and in every way duplicate a McDonalds-type atmosphere without infringing on McDonalds' trademarks. The cost (construction and operation) of this independent proprietorship should approxi- mate that of McDonalds, without the licensing cost for the McDonald's trademark usage. This leads to the development of the first equation: (1) where: ks =cost of an independent proprietorship kr = cost of a franchise* let = licensing costs ** • Assuming identical businesses, the cost of a franchise includes all the same cost incurred by an independent proprietorship plus the cost of the franchise license. **The licensing costs take into account the franchising, advertising, and miscella- neous on-going fees. The benefits of franchising should therefore, at minimum, cover the licensing cost of franchising in order to make franchising a prudent investment. The licensing cost, some- times referred to as the franchise fee, is usually an initial commitment fee (due prior to opening) and very often can be a major cost component of franchising. The franchises in this research charge a franchise fee which ranges from .03% to 937% of the estimated start-up cost of an independent proprietorship. The average franchise fee was 97% of the estimated start-up cost of an independent proprietorship. The benefits of franchising can be measured by the increased probability of success due to membership in a franchise. The increased probability of success due to member- ship in a franchise can be obtained by subtracting the percentage of the success rates of the franchised form of business from the non-franchised form of business. Once again, this point can be illustrated by using the previous hamburger stand example. In order to determine the success differential that franchising makes, the prospective franchisor would have to compare the success rates of independent proprietorships with those of franchised outlets. Assuming that franchising leads to a more successful venture, the difference between the two rates would be the increased probability of success due to inclusion in a franchise. This leads to the derivation of the second equation: (2) where: Pi = increased probability of success due to membership in a franchise. Pf = the percentage success rates of the franchised form of business. Pn = the percentage success rates of the non-franchised form of busi- ness. 18 Journal ofBusiness Strategies Vol. 8, No. 1 Loss exposure is generically defined as that dollar value of an asset or investment which is exposed as a possible loss. The reduction in loss exposure to an individual investor may therefore be defined as the amount of the investment that is shielded from possible loss. One way of reducing loss exposure would be to increase the probability of suc- cess. The amount of reduced loss exposure may be defined as the increased probability of success multiplied by the cost of a business to an independent proprietor. This leads to the third equation: Lx = PiCKJ where: Lx = the reduced loss exposure (3) Once again, this idea can be demonstrated by using the hamburger stand example. As- sume that the cost of a non-franchised McDonalds clone required an investment of $300,000. Given that a non-franchised hamburger stand has an 80% probability of fail- ure and a franchised hamburger stand has a 30% probability of failure, the realizable loss exposures can be calculated. The realizable loss exposure concerning failure of a non- franchised burger stand would be $240,000 (80% x $300,000). The realizable loss ex- posure concerning failure of a franchised burger stand would be $90,000 (30% x $300,000). The probability of failure due to the inclusion in a McDonalds' franchise is 50% (80% - 30%) less. Therefore, by joining the McDonalds' franchise, the probability of realizable loss exposure has dropped $150,000 ($240,000 - $90,(00). This reduction in loss exposure is due to the diminished probability of failure. This reduction in loss exposure represents the added value of belonging to a franchise. The added value of belonging to a franchise should be greater than or equal to the li- censing cost of the franchise. An investment in a franchise would not be considered prudent if the projected monetary gains of belonging to a franchise were not greater than, or equal to, the cost of the franchise license. In other words, an entrepreneur should not consider purchasing a franchise license whose cost would exceed the protection offered by the reduction in loss exposure. This leads to the derivation of the fourth equation, the cost of the franchise license should be less than, or equal to, the value received through the reduction in loss exposure: (4) Continuing with the previous example, if the entrepreneur could obtain a McDonalds' franchise for less than $150,000, it would be considered a prudent investment, because the reduction in loss exposure by joining the franchise was calculated to be $150,000. If the costs of the franchise license were greater than $150,000, the cost would exceed the protection offered, and therefore should not be considered a prudent investment. As previously stated, the added value of a franchising license should be greater than or equal to the reduction in loss exposure [loss exposure was derived in eq. 3, Pj(KJ]. This is shown by the fifth equation: Spring 1991 Mitenko: GeneralizedMethodology AVf > Pj(KJ where: AVf = is the added value of a franchise license. 19 (5) The sixth equation then shows that the added value of a franchising license should be greater than, or equal to, the cost of that same license: (6) In summary, the cost of joining a franchise is the cost of a franchising license to a sole proprietor. The added value of joining a franchise to that sole proprietor is thus defined as the value obtained by the differentials in probability of success between a non- franchised and a franchised business multiplied by the cost of establishing an indepen- dent proprietorship. This value also represents the reduction in loss exposure. The data used in this study came from many sources. The success rates of the two types of businesses (franchise and sole proprietorship) were not available, however, the failure rates of the two types of businesses were available. The minimum start-up costs for an independent proprietorship and the licensing costs (franchise fee), the business success rates and other data was obtained through information published in Venture, Entrepreneur, The Department of Commerce business failure rates, the franchises' indi- vidual 1D-K's and the franchises' individual Uniform Franchise Offering Circulars. Method Atkinson [3] provides success factors for both franchise and independent businesses. These factors indicate the probability that a business will still be operating in a given year. The difference between the success factors was defined as Pi (eq. 2) which is the increased probability of success due to membership in a franchise. The success factors are listed in Table 1. Table 1 Calculation of the Increased Probability of Success of a Franchise Years of Operation Success Factors FfanclUse Independent Increased Probability of Success 1 2 3 4 5 6-10 93% 94% 93% 93% 92% 90% 62% 43% 33% 27% 23% 16% 35% 51% 60% 66% 69% 74% 20 Journal ofBusiness Strategies Vol. 8, No. 1 The increased probability of success being associated with a franchise is the converse of the increased probability of failure for not being associated with a franchise. Taking the present value of the decreased probability of failure and applying a 9% discount rate, provides the present value of the maximum amount of risk reduction provided by a fran- chise license in anyone given year. The 9% discount rate was taken from the Ibbotson and Sinquefield study [13] and represents the return of the market in a diversified portfolio (the discount rate of a comparative alternative investment). The results are given in Table 2. Table 2 Calculation of the Present Value of the Loss Factor for a Franchise Years of Qperadon 1 2 3 4 5 6-10 Increased Probability of Failure 35% 51% 60% 66% 69% 74% Present Value of the Probability of Failure 32.1% 42.9% 46.3% 46.8% 44.8% 31.3% A comparison of the present value of the loss factors indicates that the maximum amount of risk reduction provided by purchasing a franchise is 46.8% of the invested capital. Therefore, 46.8% multiplied by the cost of an independent proprietorship (.KJ will give the overall value of risk reduction obtained through franchising. The value of the invested capital in an independent business was obtained through data provided by the franchisors as reported in Venture. The value of an independent busi- ness was previously defined to be the start-up cost of a franchise business less the li- censing costs (IG in Eq. 1) A Franchise Benefit Index was developed by the author to aid the reader in determin- ing which franchises should be considered as a prudent investment based on the loss ex- posure criteria. The Franchise Benefit Index commonsizes the investments in both the franchise license and the initial start-up costs and indicates the franchise benefit as a percentage of invested capital. Invested capital in this case is the cost of an independent business to a sole proprietor. The larger the Franchise Benefit Index, the better the in- vestment as a greater percentage of capital is exposed to less risk. Vi = cruiters lnt'IPersonnel Placement 24,650 25,00 11,536 (13,464) (54.6) lndep. 111 Express Services Personnel Placement 35,200 10,500 16,474 5,974 17.0 Franc. 112 SnelliD,g Temporaries Personnel Placement 95,000 6,000 44,460 38,460 40.5 Franc. 113 Pets Are lnn Pet Care 3,500 5,300 1,638 (3,662) (104.6) Indep. 114 Pet Nanny Pet Care 7,200 5,200 3,370 (1,830) (25.4) Indep. 115 American Speedy Printing Printing/Copying 65,250 39,500 30,537 (8,963) (13.7) lndep. 116 Minuteman Press Printing/Copying 48,300 24,500 22,604- (1,896) (3.9) lndep. 1171nsty-Prints Printing/Copying 85,500 40,000 40,014 14 0.0 Franc. 118 Print Shack Printing/Copying 47,450 17,500 'Zl;107 4,707 9.9 Franc. 119 PIP Printing Printing/Copying 119,500 40,000 55,926 15,926 13.3 Franc. 120 TransAmcrica Printing Printing/Copying 53,000 14,900 24,804 9,904 18.7 Franc. 121 Sir Speedy Printing Printing/Copying 74,300 17,500 34,m 17;272 23.2 Franc. 122 Belter Homes Read Fstate Real Fstate 0 24,150 0 (24,750) ••••• Indep. 123ERA Real Estate 4,630 14,400 2,176 (12,224) (2629) Indcp. 124 Reatly World Real Estate 15,600 10,400 7,301 (3,099 (19.9) Indep. 125Ambus RealFstate 39,900 25,000 18,673 (6,3Z7) (15.9) Indep. 126RPJMAX RealFstate 39,200 13,750 18,346 4,596 11.7 Franc. 127 Partners RealFstate 86,400 12,000 40,435 28,435 32.9 Franc. 128 Help-U-Sell RealFstate 45,000 4,500 21,060 16,560 36.8 Franc. 129 O>lorTyme ReDIal Services 82,900 6,000 38,797 32,7!J7 39.6 Franc. 130 Sizzler Restaurants 800,000 30,000 374,400 344,400 43.1 Franc. 131 Ponderosa Restaurants 747,650 25,000 349,900 324,900 43.5 Franc. 132 Shoney's Restaurants 499,300 12,500 233,672 'Zl1,172 44.3 Franc. 133 Miracle-Bar Retail Hearing Adis 31,500 6,250 14,742 8,492 27.0 Franc. 134 Mooograms Today RetaUlntimate Apparel 49,450 12,500 23,143 10,643 21.5 Franc. 135 Medicine Shoppe Retail Pharmacy 65,000 18,000 30420 12,420 19.1 Franc. 136 Caddy Shack Golf Shops Retail Sporting Goods 130,000 30,000 60,840 30,840 '1.3.7 Franc. 137 Sports Fantasy Retail Sporting Goods 138,400 15,000 64,771 49,771 36.0 Franc. 138 The Elephant's Trunk Retail Toys 65,100 8,000 30,467 22,467 345 Franc. 1391be Pro Image Retail-5porting Goods 88,500 16,500 41,418 24,918 28.2 Franc. 140 Sign Up Signs 48,300 24,000 'Zl,604 (1,396) (29) Indep. 141 Fastsign Centers Signs 65,000 17,500 30,420 12,920 19.9 Franc. 142 Sign Shop Signs 580,050 15,000 271,463 256,463 44.2 Franc. 143 The Signery Signs 29,700 14,900 13,900 (1,000) (3.4) Indep. 144 Travd Agents Int'l Travel Agencies 63,900 39,500 29,905 (9,595) (15.0) lndep. 145 West Cost Video Video 167,300 32,500 78,296 45,796 27.4 Franc. 146 Bloekbuster Video Video 527,500 100,000 246,870 146,870 27.8 Franc. 147 Blockbuster Video Video 549,800 35,000 257,306 222,306 40.4 Franc. 148 SteUarVision Video Services 22,500 15,000 10,530 (4,470) (19.9) lndep. 149 Video Data Services Videotaping Services 2,500 13,950 1,170 (12,780) (511.2) Indep. A Generalized Methodology to Establish a Value of the Initial Franchise Costs