Journal Of Contemporary Urban Affairs

2017, Volume 1, Number 3, pages 62– 65

Evaluation Rainfall Regime at the Hydroelectric

Power Plant toward Climate Change
* ¹ Francisco Pereira, ² Elison Eduardo Bierhals; ³ José Leandro Néris, 4 Matheus Rippel,

5 Claudinéia Brazil, 6 Luciane Salvi, 7 Nei Marçal

1, 2, 5 Energy Engineering, State University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

3,4,5,6 Environmental and Sanitary Engineering, Don Bosco College of Porto Alegre, Brazil

E mail: fbp.francisco@gmail.com , E mail: eduardojb_energia@hotmail.com , 3 E mail: matheuslrippel@gmail.com
4 E mail: leandro_melgar@hotmail.com , 5 E mail: neiabrazil@yahoo.com , 6 E mail: salvi.faculdade@dombosco.net

7 Email: marcaluergs@gmail.com

A B S T R A C T

The hydroelectric plants are first in the Brazilian energy matrix, so irregularities in

the rainfall regime can affect the energy generation, thus evidencing the need to know

the rainfall distribution in the studied area. This work aimed to evaluate possible

analysis of the impacts of climate change on the rainfall regime in the Machadinho

hydroelectric region. For the research development, the IPCC-AR5 pessimistic

scenario was used, representing a scenario with a continuous population growth and

high carbon dioxide emissions. From the historical series and organized projections,

precipitation anomalies were calculated. Analyzing the difference between the

average of the month and the climatological normal, it was inferred that the model

used presented a positive trend for precipitation in the period from 2026 - 2100,

projecting anomalies between 25 and 200 mm per month. A greater amplitude is

observed in the precipitation of 2076-2100, indicating an increase in the occurrence

of extreme events of precipitation, mainly in the spring period. Considering that the

rains in the Machadinho hydroelectric region are increasing in the scenarios

analyzed, the average water level in the reservoir of the plant tends to increase.

JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS (2017) 1(3), 62-65.

https://doi.org/10.25034/ijcua.2018.3682

www.ijcua.com

1. Introduction

The global concern about climate change has

been increasing, since the emission of gases from

human activities contributes to the greenhouse

effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant

impacts to the planet in the coming years. The

changes have been associated with the issue of

energy, especially renewable energies, which

are directly linked to climate variations.

According to Moraes (2013) in 1988, the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) was created through an initiative of the

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and

the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).

The IPCC was established with the mission of

evaluating research, interpreting it, and

gathering all relevant information, both

technical, scientific and socioeconomic, into

comprehensive, easily understood and

accessible reports by all in communities,

A R T I C L E I N F O:

Article history:

Received 2 August 2017

Accepted 10 August 2017

Available online 12 October

2017

Keywords:

Climate Change;

IPCC-AR5;

Precipitation.

*Corresponding Author:

Energy Engineering, State University of Rio Grande do Sul,

Brazil

E-mail address: fbp.francisco@gmail.com

This work is licensed under a

Creative Commons Attribution -

NonCommercial - NoDerivs 4.0.

"CC-BY-NC-ND"

http://www.ijcua.com/
mailto:fbp.francisco@gmail.com
mailto:eduardojb_energia@hotmail.com
mailto:matheuslrippel@gmail.com
mailto:leandro_melgar@hotmail.com
mailto:neiabrazil@yahoo.com
mailto:salvi.faculdade@dombosco.net
mailto:marcaluergs@gmail.com
https://doi.org/10.25034/ijcua.2018.3682
www.ijcua.com
http://www.ijcua.com/
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 1(3), 62-65 / 2017

Francisco, Pereira; Elison Eduardo, Bierhals; José Leandro, Néris; Matheus, Rippel; Claudinéia, Brazil; Luciane, Salvi; Nei, Marçal 63

including decision makers (Grimm , 2016;

Moraes, 2013). According to Nimer (1989), rainfall

occurred in Brazil’s southern region between

1990 and 2005 can be described as well

distributed, with maxima ranging from 1200 to

2100 mm / year.

The hydroelectric plants are in the first position in

the Brazilian energy matrix, evidencing,

therefore, the need to know the distribution of

the pluviometric regime of the region. The main

objective of this work is to present an analysis of

the impacts of climate change on rainfall in the

Machadinho’s hydroelectric power plant region,

which has an installed capacity of 1,140 MW and

is located in the states of Santa Catarina and Rio

Grande do Sul.

2. Material and Methods

2.1 Study area description

An evaluation of precipitation projections in the

region of the Machadinho Hydroelectric Power

Plant, located in the Uruguay River basin (Figure

1). According to Schork et. Al. (2012), a

Machadinho Hydroelectric Power Plant is

located in the states of Santa Catarina and the

Rio Grande do Sul between latitudes 27º31 'and

27º46' south and longitudes 51º47 'and 51º11'

west.

The Basin extends between the

parallels of 27º and 34º South latitude and the

meridians of 49º30 'and 58º5'W. It covers an area

of approximately 384,000 km2, of which 174,494

km2 are located in Brazil, equivalent to 2% of the

Brazilian territory. According to Andreolli ,(2003)

its Brazilian portion is in the southern region,

comprising 46,000 km2 of the State of Santa

Catarina and 130,000 km2 in the State of Rio

Grande do Sul. It is bordered to the north and

northeast by the Serra Geral, to the south by the

border with the Eastern Republic of Uruguay,

east by the Central Depression Riograndense

and the west by Argentina.

Figure 1. Study area localization.

2.2 Data description and climate model

The scenarios were generated using the models

used in the Fifth Report of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5), based on

an analysis of the seasonal variability of

precipitation and the consequent variation in

energy production.

The database used in this research is part of the

Phase 5 Intercomparison of Matching Models

(CMIP5) and contributed to the preparation of

the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The data were

extracted from ACCESS model (The Australian

Community Climate and Earth System Simulator).

According to Van Vuuren et al., (2011) in AR5 the

scenarios are organized according to the RCPs.

In this research, RCP 8.5 scenario was used which

represents a scenario with a continuous

population growth, resulting in high carbon

dioxide emissions, with an increase Up to 4 ° C.

According to Silveira et al, (2016), this scenario is

considered to be the most pessimistic for the 21st

century in terms of greenhouse gas emissions,

consistent with no policy change to reduce

emissions and strong reliance on fossil fuels. The

climatic projections of the precipitation series

were divided into three scenarios: Scenario-1

(2026-2050), Scenario-2 (2051-2075) and

Scenario-3 (2076-2100), the seasonal analysis was

done for each of these scenarios.

3. Methodology

The monthly precipitation data were extracted

from the IPCC-AR5 database, the information is

provided in grid points, and Grads (Grid Analysis

and Display System) software were used to

extract the results. According to Souza (2004)

Grads is a system of visualization and analysis of

data in grid points, it works with binary data

matrices, in which the variables can have up to

four dimensions (longitude, latitude, vertical

levels and time). After this stage, the historical

data series and the data series with the climatic

projections were organized. The projections

were divided into three 25-year scenarios:

Scenario-1 (2026-2050), Scenario-2 (2051-2075)

and Scenario-3 (2076-2100). In the sequence

precipitation anomalies were calculated from

the following equation:

APre (%) = ((PMM – PMN)/ PMN)*100 (1)

Which:

APre (%) is the precipitation anomaly in

percentage;

PMM is the mean precipitation of the analyzed

month;

http://www.ijcua.com/

JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 1(3), 62-65 / 2017

Francisco, Pereira; Elison Eduardo, Bierhals; José Leandro, Néris; Matheus, Rippel; Claudinéia, Brazil; Luciane, Salvi; Nei, Marçal 64

PMN is the climatological norm corresponding to

the analyzed month.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

defines climatological normal as averages of

climatological data calculated for consecutive

periods of 30 years.

4. Results and Discussions

The permanence curve is important for the study

of precipitation variability, being possible to

verify the probability of occurrence of the events

that occur in the watershed. The figures show the

permanence curves for Station 1 (Figure 3a)

located at -26.25 ° latitude and -52.50 ° longitude

and for station 2 (Figure 3b) located at -27.50 °

latitude And -50.63º longitude. In both stations,

the trend in the increase of monthly average

rainfall for the three scenarios was observed.

Analyzing the third scenario of Posto 1,

precipitation projections indicated an increase

of around 400 mm, compared to scenarios 1 and

2. In relation to the lower precipitation rates

scenario 1 presented values below 200 mm in

70% of the analyzed period. For station 2, the

maximum precipitation presented values

ranging from 600 to 900 mm around 5% of the

time.

Figure 3. Permanence curve of precipitation projections for

scenario 1 (blue line); Scenario 2 (red line); Scenario 3

(green line): a) Post 1 and b) Post 2

Figure 4 shows the positive anomalies in the two

stations analyzed indicating a significant

increase of the precipitation, mainly for the

spring period, with an increase of around 200

mm, for the third scenario. Summer was the

period that indicated the smallest increase in

precipitation, with values around 30 mm above

the climatological norm.

b)
Figure 4. Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies: a) station 01 and

b) station 02

Based on the average precipitation projections

of the hydrographic basin where the

Machadinho HPP is located, it was observed that

the highest values of precipitation are found in

the western half of the basin, fluctuating around

200 mm for scenario 1 (Figure 5a) .

Scenario 2 (Figure 5b) presented a

precipitation projection around 238 mm and an

increment around 64 mm for scenario 3 (Figure

5c), in relation to the first scenario analyzed, thus

verifying a tendency in the increase of

precipitation For the three scenarios in the

Hydrographic Region of the Machadinho

Hydroelectric Power Plant.

http://www.ijcua.com/

JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN AFFAIRS, 1(3), 62-65 / 2017

Francisco, Pereira; Elison Eduardo, Bierhals; José Leandro, Néris; Matheus, Rippel; Claudinéia, Brazil; Luciane, Salvi; Nei, Marçal 65

c)
Figure 5. Precipitation projections: a) Scenario 1 (2026 - 2050;

b) Scenario 2 (2051 - 2075); C) Scenario 3 (2076 - 2100).

5. Conclusion

The hydroelectric plants are in the first position in

the Brazilian energy matrix, evidencing,

therefore, the need to know the distribution of

the pluviometric regime of the region. The model

analyzed in this article presented a positive trend

for precipitation in the period from 2026 to 2100,

designing anomalies between 25 and 200 mm in

each 24 - year period for the precipitation

variable. A greater amplitude is observed in the

precipitation of 2076-2100, indicating an

increase in the occurrence of major

precipitation events, mainly in the spring period,

considering that the rains in the Machadinho

HPP region are increasing in the scenarios

analyzed, it is concluded That the level of the

reservoir of the plant tends to increase, changing

the pluviometric regime of the region.

Acknowledgement
This research did not receive any specific grant

from funding agencies in the public,

commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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