Pages 2021-3.cdr INTRODUCTION Climate change poses a serious socio-ecological challenge for marginal wheat farmers in India in recent decades (Singh, 2020a). The agricultural sector in general and marginal farmers in par�cular are believed to be adversely affected by changing in climate (Singh and Sanatan, 2014). Rapid land degrada�on, frequent and extreme droughts are significant manifesta�ons of climate change leading to produc�vity losses in rainfed regions like Bundelkhand in U�ar Pradesh (Singh 2020b). Appropriate weather condi�ons are s�ll important to improve agricultural produc�vity, despite major technical developments (Singh and Sanatan, 2018; Singh, 2019). The main influences deciding crop yields include temperature and rainfall. Because of the changing climate condi�ons 6647 Research Article Journal of Extension Educa�on Vol. 33 No.3, 2021 DOI: h�ps://doi.org/10.26725/ 1 3 3 647JEE.202 . .3 .6 -6658 Determinants in the Adop�on of Climate Change Adapta�on Strategies: Evidence from Wheat Farmers in Bundelkhand Region, India Surandra Singh Jatav and Sanatan Nayak ABSTRACT By using systema�cally collected field survey data of 200 farmers and binary logis�c regression, results of this study reveals that wheat farmers of Bundelkhand, U�ar Pradesh, India are well-aware of changing climate and adjus�ng their farm prac�ces to enhance climate resilience capacity. Farmers use their indigenous knowledge coupled with extension services provided by the government to diversify their occupa�on and cropping pa�ern as adapta�on strategies. The Binary logis�c regression results show that informa�on on climate, access to ins�tu�onal credit and having crop insurance mo�vate farmers to improved irriga�on facili�es. Further, farmers perceive that increase in temperature, decline in rainfall and water tables jointly change cropping pa�ern from the high water-intensive crop (wheat) to low water-intensive crop (chickpea) as a climate adapta�on strategy. The study suggests developing a common pla�orm for government services for the region. Community par�cipa�on and regular training programmes in the sample villages are benefi�ng farmers to channelize their indigenous knowledge and op�mize local resources, which leads to sustainable farming. Keywords: Farmers Percep�on; Climate Adapta�on; Rainfed Agriculture; Bundelkhand Region Department of Economics, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, India. Received : 11-01-2022; Accepted: 25-07-2022 6648 with different intensi�es in the world, wheat farming is under serious pressure (Sanghi and Mendelsohn, 2008). However, shi�ing climate pa�erns have a severe impact on crop farming in developed and low income countries, leading to a sharp drop in crop yields (Singh and Sanatan, 2021). Climate c h a n g e a ffe c t s r u r a l s u b s i s t e n c e i n developed countries and increases the insecurity of agricultural popula�ons. While farmers have used the recommended amounts of input and crop management strategy, varia�on in seasonal temperatures and stress have adversely affected the crop yield and, in par�cular, the yield of wheat (Singh and Sanatan, 2021). Efforts to tackle the nega�ve effects of climate change, especially on small farmers and agriculture in general, are therefore essen�al. Most modelling and observa�onal studies have shown that climate change affects more likely to rainfed farmers (Singh 2020a, b & c). Farmers have always faced mul�ple risks, for example, in India, major concerns for farmers included variability in climate and lack of access to modern technology and correct & updated �mely weather informa�on (Singh and Sanatan, 2020). Re g i o n a l s u r v e y s h a v e s h o w n t h a t Bundelkhand is highly vulnerable to climate change (Singh 2020a, b & c; GoI 2008). Bundelkhand region is highly suscep�ble to drought, is one of the least developed socio- economic region of India. Increasing demand for natural resources and harsh and deteriora�ng biophysical condi�ons such as low soil produc�vity and more regular extreme events such as temperature varia�on and intensify droughts have increased the degree of climate vulnerability i n t h e r e g i o n . Fo r e x a m p l e , i n t h e Bundelkhand region, crop produc�vity is 1.4 �mes lower than in other area of Central India (Singh, 2020a). Consequently, adapta�on to climate change has been a core and well-known feature of regional climate and science policies over the last twenty years (IPCC 2014; Panda 2016). Most updated research has believed that adapta�on to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change is the most successful approach (Singh, 2020 a & b; Singh and Sanatan, 2021; Jatav et al., 2022). By adjus�ng environmental and socioeconomic condi�ons, farmers will maintain food, employment and livelihood stability. Adapta�on is also used to reduce complica�ons posed by such risks or poten�al risks, such as climate change or adverse weather condi�ons (IPCC 2001). Given the frequent geographical impacts of climate change, it is cri�cal that broad- based climate change adapta�on programs suppor�ng smallholder farmers take local needs into account and incorporate learning from recent autonomous and projected adapta�on efforts. In view of the above, this paper aims at iden�fying the determinants which influence and mo�vate farmers to adopt a ra�onal climate-smart adapta�on strategy. The paper has addressed the following key ques�ons: (i) what are the major climate adapta�on strategies adopted by the Journal of Extension Educa�on 6649 farmers, (ii) how a farmer decides to choose a ra�onal adapta�on strategy, and (iii) what are the socioeconomic and biophysical determinants that influence and mo�vate farmers to adopt a ra�onal adapta�on strategy. METHODOLOGY The present study was conducted in Bundelkhand region of U�ar Pradesh, India. Region lies between the Yamuna River and Northern scarp of the Vindhyan plains of U�ar Pradesh state. Wheat is the most important food crop in Bundelkhand region. Its economic ac�vi�es are related to produc�on, processing, distribu�on, and consump�on, which is widely considered a key for economic development, food security, and poverty reduc�on. An extensive field survey was conducted to extract informa�on on farmers' percep�on of climate change and the key determinants (i.e., land size, age, gender, educa�on, access to ins�tu�onal credit and crop insurance). Field survey was conducted in April- May 2017 during harves�ng �me of Rabi season. Mul�stage sampling technique was opted for the sample selec�on. In first step, two districts, viz., Jhansi and Jalaun out of seven districts were randomly chosen. In second step, one development Block from each district was chosen purposely. In third step, 2 villages from each development Block were chosen purposely. In fourth step, probability propor�onal size (PPS) approach was adopted for the selec�on of households. Thus, 2 districts, 2 development Blocks, 4 villages and 200 samples were selected for the study. Binary Logis�c Regression (BLR) model was adopted for iden�fying the key determinants of climate change adapta�on in the sample farmers (Singh, 20202a; Jatav et al., 2021). BLR model was separately used for Jhansi and Jalaun districts to capture regional heterogeneity in the region. The logis�c distribu�on func�on for the decision on adop�ng adapta�on measures to climate change can be specified as: Where; is a probability of deciding to adopt adapta�on strategies (dependent variable), are independent variables, is is the intercept and is the regression coefficient of respec�ve variables. We can write the model in terms of odds as; The dependent variable (adapta�on strategy) is binary, with values as 1 for farmers using at least one of the iden�fied climate adapta�on strategies (Table 1) and 0 for farmers using none of the strategies Determinants in the Adop�on of Climate Change Adapta�on Strategies: Evidence from Wheat Farmers in Bundelkhand Region, India 6650 men�oned. This was done to differen�ate farmers between who adapted and farmers who did not adapted. One of the farmer's adapta�on techniques, including crop p a � e r n c h a n g e , i m p rove d i r r i g a � o n facili�es, and the use of early matured seed varie�es, have iden�fied to climate change. The hypothesized independent variables affec�ng the development of adapta�on s t r a t e g i e s b y f a r m e r s i n c l u d e t h e cumula�ve impact of different factors such a s g e o g r a p h i c a l , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c characteris�cs and extended resources for farmers. Based on previous research on adapta�on strategies (Singh, 2020a & b; IPCC, 2014; Panda, 2016), the present study finds the following explanatory variables and analyzed their effect on f a r m e r s a d o p � n g c l i m a t e c h a n g e adjustment strategies (Table 1). Table 1. Descrip�on of the Dependent and Explanatory Variables Dependent Variables Descrip�on Cropping pa�ern change Categorical (Yes= 1, No= 0) Improved irriga�on facili�es Categorical (Yes= 1, No= 0) Use of early matured varie�es Categorical (Yes= 1, No= 0) Explanatory Variables Educa�on Categorical ( Below secondary = 0, above =1) Farmer perceived rainfall was declined Categorical (Yes = 1, No = 0) Farmer perceived temperature was increased Categorical (Yes = 1, No = 0) Land size Con�nuous (in acre) Farmer has access to ins�tu�onal credit Categorical (Yes = 1, No = 0) Farmer has access to climate informa�on regularly Categorical (Yes = 1, No = 0) Farmer has insured their crop through weather-based crop insurance Categorical (Yes = 1, No = 0) Par�cipa�on in Training Programme Categorical (Yes = 1, No = 0) FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION Socio-economic Characteris�cs of the Surveyed Households In comparison with those at na�onal level, the socio- economic characteris�cs of the households represent the region's backwardness. The literacy rate in Jalaun and Jhansi is slightly less than the na�onal average, i.e., 50.24 percent & 49.76 percent (Table 2). In addi�on, the household's average annual income is also modest and varies. The averages of land in both districts are also smaller than in the country (0.26 and 0.35 hectares) (1.18 ha). Almost 15 percent of the people belong to the planned divisions of castes and planned tribes in India. In addi�on, 35 percent of Jalaun's households and 20 percent of Jhansi's h o u s e h o l d s d o n o t h a v e e l e c t r i c i t y connec�on. Almost 50 percent & 40 percent of the popula�on of the samples have no sanitary and drinking facili�es within the household. Almost 30 percent of the popula�on lives in extreme poverty. In totality, the findings demonstrate that most Journal of Extension Educa�on 6651 Farmers' Percep�on on Climate Change Figure 1 depicts that farmers are well aware of the changing clima�c condi�ons. About 70 percent in Jalaun and 64 percent in Jhansi, farmers perceived that rainfall distribu�on had declined over the last five years. Likewise, <90 percent of farmers in both districts perceived that the summer season had become rela�vely ho�er in recent years compared with last decade. Further, about 88 percent of farmers in Jalaun and 98 percent of farmers in Jhansi perceived that the frequency of heat-waves had been increased, which was a major factor for mortality in the summer season. < 90 percent of farmers perceived that the water table in the sample villages had been dras�cally declined due to less rainfall and higher water consump�on. Therefore, farmers are digging more and deeper tube-wells to meet water demand for agriculture and domes�c purposes. In totality, increase in temperature and decline in rainfall pu�ng stress on the marginalized farming community. The present study's findings are in the same direc�on of Hansen et al (2004) and Bryan et al (2009). These studies have pointed out that farmers' percep�on of climate change depends on their recent and past experiences. Our results are also in the line with Indian Meteorological Department temperature record for the Bundelkhand region, which suggests a significant increase 0 in annual temperature by about 0.01 C per year during 1951 to 2017. In the case of rainfall, the actual annual rainfall trend during 1951-2017 showed a decline of 1.41 millimetre per year. The summer and winter rainfall also show sharp decline annually of about -0.59 millimetre and about -0.06 millimetre respec�vely. Table 2. Socio-economic Characteris�cs of Surveyed Farm Households Sl.No. Household Socioeconomic Characteris�cs Jalaun Jhansi India 1 Female (%) 44.74 44.18 48.00 2 Literate popula�on (%) 50.24 49.76 74.01 3 Mean Income (US $) 334 374 2198 4 Mean land size (Acre) 0.26 0.35 1.18 5 Mean age of the head of household (Years) 31.36 30.04 29.00 6 Share of Scheduled caste popula�on (%) 13.82 7.81 16.60 7 Share of Scheduled tribe popula�on (%) 2.80 5.10 8.60 8 Share of Hindu Religion (%) 84.21 84.37 79.80 9 Marital Status (%) 52.39 53.32 45.60 10 Households having electricity connec�on (%) 65.00 80.00 89.70 11 Households having sanita�on facility (%) 57.00 51.00 51.77 12 Households using improved drinking water facility (%) 61.00 60.00 99.14 13 Households below poverty line (%) 29.00 26.00 23.60 Source: Field Survey Data, 2017 & Census, 2011. Note: One US$= 69.49 Indian Rupees (INR). Determinants in the Adop�on of Climate Change Adapta�on Strategies: Evidence from Wheat Farmers in Bundelkhand Region, India 6652 A d a p t a � o n St r a t e g i e s a d o p t e d by Surveyed Farmers Figure 2 reflects that farmers have adopted differen�al adapta�on strategies on cropping pa�ern change from water intensive crop (wheat) to low water intensive crop (chickpea) in Rabi season. In this connec�on, sta�s�cs reveals that about 82 percent of farmers in Jhansi and about 72 percent of farmers in Jalaun have changed their cropping pa�ern. Further, by u�lising natural resource management techniques and expert advice provided by local agriculture officers, about 62 percent of farmers in Jhansi and 52 percent of farmers in Jalaun have improved their irriga�on facili�es to get regular and assured water whenever required for irriga�on. As Bundelkhand is a dry region, farmers have used sprinklers for efficient use of water. Moreover, about 72 percent of farmers in Jhansi and 52 percent of farmers in Jalaun have used Early Maturing Seed Varie�es (EMSV) to cope with changing climate. EMSV are very useful to have climate resilience prac�ces. They have required less water, �me and inputs compared with tradi�onal seed varie�es. Surveyed farmers are growing EMSV such as UP 2382, which get ready in 109 days for harves�ng. Per hectare produc�on (5545 kg/ha) is also rela�vely higher as they are specially designed for dry regions, like Bundelkhand region. Figure. 1. Farmers percep�on on Climate Change Figure. 2 Adapta�on Strategies of Farmers Journal of Extension Educa�on 6653 Determinants of Climate Adapta�on Strategies The Binary Logis�c Regression (BLR) model results help in iden�fying the d e t e r m i n a n t s o f c l i m a t e a d a p t a � o n strategies namely cropping pa�ern change, improved irriga�on and early maturing varie�es (Table 3). The study has used BLR model at district-level to capture regional dimensions of climate change adapta�on. Results depict that decrease in rainfall mo�vated farmers to change their cropping pa�ern, while restricted to use early maturing varie�es and improve irriga�on in Jhansi district and on the other hand, rainfall has posi�vely associated with iden�fy adapta�on strategies in Jalaun district (Table 3). Whereas, temperature, educa�on, land size, par�cipa�on in agricultural training programmes, access of agricultural credit, informa�on of climate, and crop insurance are posi�vely associated with the iden�fying adapta�on strategies in both the districts. The calculated odds ra�o shows that there is 2.54 �mes higher probability to change their cropping pa�ern in favour of low water-intensive crops (i.e., chickpea) from high water-intensive crops (i.e., wheat), if farmers perceived that rainfall will decline in Jhansi district. On the other hand, there is 3.24, 2.64 & 1.58 �mes higher probability to change cropping pa�ern, use of early maturing varie�es and will improve irriga�on respec�vely, if farmers perceive that rainfall will decline in Jalaun district. Further, there is 3 �mes higher probability t o a d o p t r e c o m m e n d e d a d a p t a � o n strategies (early maturing seed variety), if farmers perceive that temperature will be increased in the near future in Jhansi district and on the other hand, there is less l i k e l i h o o d t o a d o p t r e c o m m e n d e d strategies in Jalaun district compared with Jhansi district. Educa�on is a vital indicator in the climate change adapta�on strategy. It is expected that educated farmers are more likely to adopt recommended strategies. Results from table 3 revealed that there is 2.51 & 3.64 �mes higher probability to change cropping pa�ern and use of early m a t u r i n g v a r i e t y, i f f a r m e r s h a v i n g educa�on-level above from secondary level in Jhansi district and on the other hand, there is 1.62, 2.64 & 3.24 �mes higher probability to change cropping pa�ern, use of early maturing varie�es and improved irriga�on, if farmers having educa�on-level above from secondary-level in Jalaun district. The odds ra�os of land size depicts that there is 3.24, 2.64 & 4.32 �mes higher p r o b a b i l i t y t o a d o p t r e c o m m e n d e d adapta�on strategies, if farmers having higher land size in Jhansi district and on the other hand, odd ra�o shows that rela�vely less likelihoods to implement adapta�on strategies in Jalaun district compare to Jhansi district. The extension services depict that farmers who par�cipated in the agriculture development programme are rela�vely m o re l i ke l y t o a d o p t re c o m m e n d e d adapta�on strategies in Jhansi compared to Jalaun. There is 4.26, 2.34 & 3.24 �mes higher probability to adopt recommended strategies in Jhansi, while the corresponding figures are only 2.45 & 3.54 for Jalaun. Determinants in the Adop�on of Climate Change Adapta�on Strategies: Evidence from Wheat Farmers in Bundelkhand Region, India Sl.No. Independent Variables Jhansi Jalaun Variables Cropping pa�ern change Early maturing varie�es Improved irriga�on Cropping pa�ern change Early maturing varie�es 1 Rainfall 0.482* (2.54) -0.265* (0.84) -0.632* (0.64) 0.621* (3.24) 0.325* (2.64) 0.531* (1.58) 2 Temperature 0.125* (3.28) 0.632* (2.54) 0.745* (3.25) 0.138* (2.88) 0.262* (1.54) 0.145* (1.25) 3 Educa�on 0.045* (2.51) 0.038** (3.64) 0.149** (0.91) 0.049** (1.62) 0.472** (2.64) 0.324** (3.24) Improved irriga�on Journal of Extension Educa�on6654 Further, odd ra�o of access to ins�tu�onal credit reveals that farmers those are availing credit from ins�tu�onal sources are more likely (3.24 �mes higher) improved their i r r i g a � o n s y s t e m i n J h a n s i , w h i l e corresponding figures for Jalaun is rela�vely higher than that of Jhansi. Likewise, odd ra�o of informa�on on climate depicts that farmers having informa�on of changing climate, there is 1.59 & 2.64 �mes higher probability to use early maturing varie�es and improved irriga�on in Jhansi and on the other hand, there is 3.64, 3.59 & 1.64 �mes higher probability for adapta�on strategies in Jalaun. Lastly, the odd ra�o of crop insurance shows that there is 4.95, 3.59 & 2.44 �mes higher probability for iden�fying adapta�on strategies in Jhansi, while there is 4.24, 3.29 & 3.82 �mes higher probability to adopt in Jalaun. In totality, the likelihood analysis (odd ra�o) reveals that farmers belonging to the Jalaun are having higher likelihood for iden�fying adapta�on strategies compared to Jhansi. The results are in the same line of M a d d i s i o n ' s ( 2 0 0 6 ) . T h e s e s t u d i e s suggested that educated farmers have more knowledge and informa�on about climate change and agronomic prac�ces that they can use of. More specifically households with larger farm size and family head having higher educa�onal a�ainment are more likely to adopt iden�fied adapta�on strategies. W h i l e i n s � t u � o n a l c re d i t a n d weather-based crop insurance protect them from the adverse impacts of calami�es. Microfinance can reduce vulnerability through ex-ante risk reduc�on via livelihood diversifica�on, ex-post risk mi�ga�on via savings and insurance, and finally risk coping via credit. In the absence of insurance, farmers have to rely on coping mechanisms such as withdrawing savings, accessing loans selling assets, or reducing expenditure (Felton et al., 2015). Risk- averse farmers that can't use these ex-post coping mechanisms have been found to sacrifice total income for income stability. Further, Pierro and Desai (2008) found the weather-based insurance using physical triggers as proxy mechanisms have been more successful than tradi�onal crop insurance in reducing transac�on costs, pay-out �mes, disputes, and asymmetric informa�on problem. Table 3. Determinants of Adapta�on Strategies 4 Land Size 0.238* (3.24) 0.652* (2.64) 0.742* (4.32) 0.634* (2.83) 0.454** (1.89) 0.648* (3.92) 5 Training Programme 0.421* (4.26) 0.024* (2.34) 0.064* (3.24) 0.421* (2.45) 0.025* (3.54) 0.064* (0.64) 6 Agricultural Credit 0.246** (0.54) 0.045* (0.45) 0.215** (5.64) 0.846** (2.95) 0.248* (5.64) 0.616* (3.36) 7 Informa�on of Climate 0.002 *** (0.95) 0.064** (1.59) 0.841* (2.64) 0.692** (3.64) 0.068** (3.59) 0.241* (1.64) 8 Crop Insurance 0.652 *** (4.95) 0.682** (3.59) 0.021* (2.44) 0.462** (4.24) 0.026** (3.29) 0.266* (3.82) Constant -1.616* (0.19) -0.087* (0.91) -0.294- (0.74) -0.420* (0.65) -0.348 ** (0.70) 0.694- (0.24) LR chi2 28.54 26.43 33.21 15.35 3.32 13.62 Prob > chi2 0.0019 0.0031 0.0054 0.0029 0.0062 0.000 Pseudo R2 0.8948 0.9521 0.9528 0.9226 0.9381 0.8582 Log likelihood -85.842 -76.635 -102.049 -166.246 -168.326 -87.698 No. Obs. 100 100 100 100 100 100 Sl.No. Independent Variables Jhansi Jalaun Variables Cropping pa�ern change Early maturing varie�es Improved irriga�on Cropping pa�ern change Early maturing varie�es Improved irriga�on 6655 CONCLUSION C l i m a t e c h a n g e i s a d v e r s e l y affec�ng to farmers across the world. It also increases the degree of vulnerability as majority of the farmers are marginal and have limited resources capacity to cope. Further, fragmenta�on of land size, over- u�liza�on of natural resources in the declining stage of common property resources are adding an addi�onal layer of suscep�bility in the higher vulnerable system. In order to understand the farmers' percep�on and determina�on of climate change adapta�on, the present study was undertaken on most climate-sensi�ve agro- clima�c region of U�ar Pradesh, India i.e., Bundelkhand region. The results of this study reveal that farmers are well-aware of changing clima�c condi�on. Hence, farmers are adjus�ng their farm prac�ces and diversifying their occupa�on to neutralise the adverse effect of climate change. Farmers have changed their cropping pa�ern, adopted to prac�ce improved irriga�on, and grow early maturing varie�es as climate adapta�on strategies. The Binary Determinants in the Adop�on of Climate Change Adapta�on Strategies: Evidence from Wheat Farmers in Bundelkhand Region, India Source: Es�mated from field survey data, 2017. Note *, **, and *** indicate 1, 5, 10 percent level of significance respec�vely. Values in parentheses are odd ra�os. Because of our analysis was carried out at district level, hence, 100 observa�ons are men�oned in the last row of Table 3 logis�c regression results confirm that educated farmers having informa�on on changing climate are wisely adjus�ng their farm prac�ces. Further, the availability of extension services like access to crop insurance and ins�tu�onal credit also posi�vely influencing farmers' copping behaviour. As far as policy implica�ons from this study are concerned, the study suggests that the development of a common pla�orm for government services is a prerequisite in the region. Asymmetric informa�on on climate change is also the main barrier w h i c h re s t r i c t s f a r m e r s f ro m b e � e r u�liza�on of indigenous knowledge. Hence, community par�cipa�on and regular training programs in the sample villages are surely benefi�ng farmers to channelize their indigenous knowledge and op�mize local resources which leads to sustainable farming. The results of this study, however, needs to be interpreted with cau�on because of certain limita�ons. First, this study uses small sample size, i.e. 200 respondents from selected two districts of Bundelkhand region, excluded 11 districts. Therefore, it would be difficult to generalize the findings in the context of the drought- prone regions of India. Adapta�ons are varying region-to-region and village-to- village; therefore, it may be possible to miss o t h e r r e l e v a n t f a r m - l e v e l e ff e c � v e a d a p t a � o n m e a s u r e s , w h i c h w o u l d otherwise have been adopted by farmers. 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(2020b) Farmers' percep�on of c l i m a t e c h a n g e a n d a d a p t a � o n decisions: A micro-level analysis of farmers in Bundelkhand region, India. Ecological Indicators 116, 1-13. 6657Determinants in the Adop�on of Climate Change Adapta�on Strategies: Evidence from Wheat Farmers in Bundelkhand Region, India Journal of Extension Educa�on6658 Singh, S. (2020c) Assessing livelihood vulnerability of farmers' in backward regions in India. In d i a n Jo u r n a l of Agricultural Research 54(3), 222-226. Singh, S. & Sanatan, N. (2020) Development of sustainable livelihood security index for different agro-clima�c zones of U�ar Pradesh. Journal of Rural Development 39(1), 110-129. Singh, S. & Sanatan, N. (2021) Assessment of climate change impact on wheat yield in western dry region: A district-level analysis. Climate Change 6(21), 25-34. Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12