Journal of Geography, Politics and Society 2022, 12(2), 1–7 https://doi.org/10.26881/jpgs.2022.2.01 IMPLICATIONS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE ON THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE Vladimir Prebilič (1), Vid Jereb (2) (1) Department of Defense Studies Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana, Kardeljeva 5, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia, ORCID: 0000-0002-0576-4259 e-mail: vladimir.prebilic@fdv.uni-lj.si (corresponding author) (2) Department of Defense Studies Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana, Kardeljeva 5, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia e-mail: vid.jereb@gmailcom Citation Prebilič V., Jereb V., 2022, Implications of the war in Ukraine on the Belt and Road Initiative, Journal of Geography, Politics and Society, 12(2), 1–7. Abstract The war in Ukraine will have broad implications for the European region and the world as a whole. It has already changed the intricate balance in the world order influencing great power competition rendering some geostrategic priorities obsolete while reinforcing others. The biggest geo-economic project of the People’s Republic of China (PRC): the Belt and Road (BRI) initiative, will be no exception. The transport and energy flows of BRI will be disrupted due to the new Iron Curtain descending across Europe in the form of sanctions against aggressors in the war in Ukraine. To balance this in the short term, the PRC will have to reroute much of its BRI cargo and projects into other corridors. In the long term, the PRC will attempt to divert Russian resources from the West to itself within the BRI framework, thus rendering western sanctions ineffective and assuring the long- term success of the BRI. Key words Belt and Road Initiative, War in Ukraine, geopolitics, geo-economics. Received: 23 May 2022 Accepted: 02 July 2022 Published: 19 August 2022 1. Introduction The war in Ukraine will certainly be remembered as one of the most significant geopolitical events of the 21st century. As such, it has changed the landscape and dynamics of great power competition, harming the prospects of some while also creating new op- portunities for others. The war in Ukraine and the consequent international isolation of Russia, among many other outcomes, has put into question the success of the biggest international infrastructural project: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its mainland corridor, the Eurasian land bridge. One of the main declared underlying goals of the BRI is to promote peace through trade and connec- tivity. In this sense, the war in Ukraine erodes one of the main pillars of the initiative. The causal relation- ship between trade and war has been observed for the past two millennia. In 100  AD, Plutarch wrote that sea trade allowed one to cooperate and ‘redress defects’ in their relationships through a mutual ex- change (Stewart, 2020). Since then, many studies mailto:vladimir.prebilic@fdv.uni-lj.si mailto:vid.jereb@gmailcom 2 Vladimir Prebilič, Vid Jereb have proven a positive correlation between peace and trade and a negative correlation between war and trade. This is largely due to harmful factors, such as embargoes, damage to infrastructure, the nature of the wartime economy, and many other hidden indirect costs, such as loss of human capital (Glick, Taylor, 2005). Regardless, this crisis also presents opportunities that great powers, such as the PRC, could capitalize on. Despite the emphasis on peace, security was al- ways an integral part of the initiative. The security component was never officially given the impor- tance it plays in the initiative (Russel, Locklear, 2020) as it contradicts its declared goal of a ‘peaceful rise’ of the PRC (Peoples Republic of China) (Pan, 2006). Many Western countries have been skeptical and warned participating countries against the possible militarization of BRI projects (Russel, Locklear, 2020), with the best example being the strategic ports in the Indian Ocean, which might serve a dual purpose within the Chinese strategy of encircling India called String of pearls. Even if those projects are not used militarily, they will serve indirect security goals, such as strategic depth, alternative supply routes, energy security, and increased mobility, among others (Lint- ner, 2019). 2. Geopolitics and geo-economics Geopolitics is placed within the field of the basic sci- ence of geography, more precisely in the domain of social geography. Nonetheless, the specificity of the study is significantly broader than the specialist sci- ences of social geography, which thoroughly investi- gate individual components of the human presence in geographical space (Flint, 2017). The term geopolitics was coined in 1899, and its father is considered to be the Swedish scientist, ge- ographer and politician Rudolf Kjelln. Since then the science has experienced an extremely rapid devel- opment of various concepts which have been (too) often the subject of instrumentalization of various ideologies (Dodds, 2019). Today, science has new research disciplines, among which geo-economics is the most current. The progress of humanity in terms of a general refusal to resolve conflicts through war and awareness of the extremely serious consequenc- es of a global military conflict has put methods that are more acceptable within international commu- nity at the forefront of satisfying national interests. Nonetheless, these methods bare not much less negative consequences for those who find them- selves in the grip of projecting interests. R. Blackwill and J. Harris (2016, p. 20) defined geo- -economics as: “the use of economic instruments to promote and defend national interests, and to pro- duce beneficial geopolitical results; and the effects of other nations’ economic actions on a country’s geopolitical goals”. A closer look at this definition re- veals the instruments, or methods, of geo-economic actions of countries in the global order, as well as the goals of the latter stem from an important fact – the starting point of any geo-economic action is the possession of economic power, of which the PRC has a lot. 3. Belt and Road Initiative BRI is the largest infrastructural project in history. In its plans, it encapsulates the supercontinent of Afro-Eurasia, with member countries representing more than 60% of the world’s population, 35% of the world GDP and 43% of the world trade. Although the initial starting goal of the BRI was to ensure the con- nectivity of Asian markets, with Chinese market at its center, more and more investments can be iden- tified in agriculture, industrial development, trade, investment and financial sectors (Kohli et al. (eds.), 2020). From the point of view of the geoeconomics of the People’s Republic of China, the development of the BRI concept years after its beginning makes more sense than ever. In the initial period alone, be- tween 2014 and 2016, trade between the economies of the BRI and the PRC reached three trillion dollars with a far above average growth rate (Islam, 2019). It is expected that the BRI will further stimulate trade and thus economic growth of the PRC for many years to come. The latest figures from March 2022 show that 146 countries have already signed BRI Memorandums of Understanding with the PRC thus becoming official members of BRI. The countries of the Belt and Road Initiative are spread across all continents: 43 coun- tries are in Sub-Saharan Africa, 34 BRI countries are in Europe & Central Asia (including 18 countries of the European Union (EU) that are part of the BRI), 25 BRI countries are in East Asia & Pacific, 20 BRI coun- tries are in Latin America & Caribbean, 18 BRI coun- tries in the Middle East & North Africa, 6 countries are in South East Asia (Nedopil, 2022). The BRI is necessary to understand from a geo- strategic perspective through two important imple- mentation components: the belt represents a land corridor, which connects the PRC through Central Asia, the South Caucasus and the Russian Federation with the European Union countries. It consists of six economic corridors – Southeast Asian, South Asian, Implications of the war in Ukraine on the Belt and Road Initiative 3 two Central Asian and North Asian corridors (Fig. 1) (Chatzky, McBride, 2020). The initiative, on the other hand, equates the road with a maritime component whose mainstay is connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans via Indo- nesia. In the period since 2018, the People’s Republic of China has added another important corridor to the already mentioned corridors: the polar route. The route came to the forefront due to climate change and the melting of the Arctic ice, thus providing the possibility of establishing a maritime route through the Arctic. Considering the amount of cargo, the maritime component of the BRI project is signifi- cantly more important for the PRC. It addresses three areas of conflict of interest and possible constraints on the PRC’s strategic interests: the South China Sea, the Suez Canal and the Straits of Tears (Bad el Man- deb) as entry points into the Red Sea and on to the Suez Canal (Chatzky, McBride, 2020). 4. The War in Ukraine and the Belt and Road Initiative Russia played a very prominent role in Chinese grand plans for the Belt and Road Initiative. Its plans within the country in 2020 consisted of 122 projects, the majority of which were within sectors of trans- port and energy. In 2020 Russia was the highest re- cipient of BRI investment of all its member countries at a staggering 287 billion USD (Refinitiv, 2020). The COVID-19 pandemic has restructured BRI priorities, putting some projects on pause while accelerating others. The biggest such change was seen in the expansion of land transportation, making once too expensive land transport financially more viable in the light of problems within the shipping industry due to pandemic (IEA, 2020). While BRI has not yet fully taken its post-pandemic shape, it was disrupted again, this time by the war in Ukraine. Russia and China have a very long and complicat- ed relationship. Since the collapse of the Soviet Un- ion, Russia and the PRC have increasingly deepened their relationship, which today can be described as that of strategic partners. Despite this, there is a limit to every friendship and the war in Ukraine has Silk Road Economic Belt New Maritime Silk Road Gas pipelines Oil pipelines Existing railroads Proposed economic corridors Planned Ports with Chinese engagement Planned or under construction Prpjects subsumed under China’s Belt and Road initiativeKey Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) members Fig. 1. BRI projects, routes and corridors. Source: Maçães, 2017. 4 Vladimir Prebilič, Vid Jereb tested the trust between the countries, leaving the PRC leadership unsettled by the unilateral actions of its close ally. Uncertainty of war, risks to the PRC’s long-term strategy and reputational damage by the association are just some of the factors thus far dam- aging Chinese international standing (Politi, 2022). In the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, the NATO lead coalition of countries imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia and Belarus, making Russia, which has been already sanctioned since 2014 an- nexation of Crimea, the most sanctioned country in the world with over 5,000 targeted sanctions. These sanctions, besides state actors, include the country’s sovereign debt, foreign exchanges, private individu- als and entities, and even SWIFT bank transactions (Vuksic, 2022). Despite Russia being the target, sanc- tions rippled through world markets sending prices of commodities such as oil, gas, wheat, and fertilizers to new heights. Sanctions also had a spillover effect on Russia dependent economies and companies the majority of which are in Europe and Asia, the main theater of BRI (van der Merwe, 2020). The USA has already warned China that any form of help to Russia, military or otherwise, will be un- derstood as complicity and will be sanctioned as such (Brant, 2022). In response to this, the PRC has already paused many developments within the BRI framework in Russia, including some of its biggest projects, such as the 500 million Sinopec’s gas plant, the integral piece in the BRI energy corridor from Russia to the PRC. According to Reuters (2022), Bei- jing has repeatedly voiced opposition to the sanc- tions, insisting it will maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with Russia and has refused to con- demn Moscow’s actions in Ukraine or call them an invasion. Despite this, behind the scenes, the gov- ernment is wary of Chinese companies running afoul of sanctions. As a result, the PRC is pressing compa- nies to tread carefully with investments in Russia, its second-largest oil supplier and third-largest gas pro- vider (Aizhu et al., 2022). The PRC has increased its imports from Russia in a single year by an astonishing 56.6% from 2021 to 2021. The trend defies the US warnings to cut ties, as the largest increase happened since the invasion began by 13.3% in just over a month. The PRC’s ex- ports to Russia, on the other hand, dropped by 7.7% as Chinese companies remain too wary of sanctions (Tang, Wang, 2022). 5. Energy sector While the PRC puts its Russian projects on hold to re- assess risks and opportunities, Russia does not have the same luxury of time. To shield itself from sanc- tions, which threaten its survival, Russia will have to search aggressively for new markets and opportuni- ties. The EU has already announced it will seek to ban Russian energy imports as soon as it finds alternative sources, which would cripple the Russian economy if it does not take advantage of a closing window of opportunity to reroute its energy exports elsewhere (Edmond, 2022). The PRC is the only market with big enough de- mand to absorb Russian energy supply in the long term, but in the short term, Russia cannot do much to change its export routes. The majority of 11.3 mil- lion barrels a day production in Russia consists of 10 million barrels of crude oil, 960,000 barrels of refined oil, and 340,000 barrels of liquid natural gas. This means that Russian energy exports are overwhelm- ingly dependent on oil and gas pipes, which cannot change their course overnight and take years, and some even decades, to be constructed. The 960,000 barrels of oil and 340,000 barrels of natural liquid gas are transported outside of pipelines, mainly on rail- ways (Broom, 2022). However, railways are already running at full capacity due to the Covid breakdown in logistics and heavy demands of wartime logistics, which are providing support for Russian troops in Ukraine. It is, therefore, easy to conclude that Russia will face great challenges in rerouting its oil exports away from European markets. Another important aspect is how sanctions on Russian oil and gas will work. Due to the centralized nature of the planned economy, almost all former Soviet republics export their oil through the former Soviet, nowadays Russian infrastructure, with pipe- lines from Central Asia and Caucuses, with very few exceptions connecting to the Russian infrastruc- ture, thus creating an integrated and hard to distin- guished web of the energy system (Haddad, 2022). The sanctioning of the Russian energy sector will, therefore, have an even broader implication on BRI energy ambitions as it will also include countries such as Kazakhstan, which lies at the center of BRI infrastructure going to the Middle East and Europe. If the PRC wants to move ahead in light of sanctions, it will need to physically separate the Russian energy infrastructure and that of the former Soviet republics even further, thus creating an alternative gravitat- ing toward the PRC instead of Russia. Such a move would be seen by Russia as meddling in its sphere of influence and an act of open hostility that would undoubtedly sour the relations between the coun- tries. Nonetheless, Russian power in Central Asia and many other places alongside BRI is in decline and the PRC’s power is rising and filling the void left behind by retreating great powers (Yau, 2020). Implications of the war in Ukraine on the Belt and Road Initiative 5 This is where the PRC could capitalize on oppor- tunities created by the Ukraine conflict with syner- gies within its BRI long-term strategy. Western global oil majors Shell, British Petroleum (BP) and Norway’s Equinor pledged to exit their Russian operations shortly after Russia’s invasion on February 24 (Aizhu et al., 2022). Those companies were not just inves- tors but also provided the Russian energy sector with technical support and technological expertise. Once the Chinese energy giants, such as Sinopec, China National Petroleum Corp and China National Offshore Oil Corp, learn the fine print of sanctions and how to circumvent them, they will probably be able to replace and fill the void left behind by the retreat of Western firms. The PRC can also provide a much-needed lifeline to Russia through its BRI pro- jects, keeping Russian finances afloat while reaping the benefits of cheap energy supplies. Despite the long-term potential of Russian and Central Asian energy exports, whose energy infra- structure will take years to build, the PRC will have to find a short-term solution to its growing energy demand. The most obvious solution lies with an- other BRI ally: Saudi Arabia (SA). SA and the PRC have dramatically improved their relations since the Yemen war, in which SA felt abandoned by its long- time western allies, namely the USA. Since then, SA has increasingly shifted its focus toward the PRC and its BRI projects. In 2022, SA exported 25% of its oil to PRC making SA the main Chinese energy trad- ing partner (Said, Kalin, 2022). In light of upcoming restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports, we can expect this trend to continue as Russian oil exports to the PRC dropped by 9% in the month following the invasion (Reuters, 2022). The PRC and SA are al- ready planning for this within the BRI framework. In 2022, the PRC and SA began official talks for a new trade agreement in which the Chinese Yuan would replace US dollars for its oil sales (Said, Kalin, 2022). This would not only benefit the PRC but also would significantly hurt the US dollar’s position as the dom- inant global currency, especially in light of the Rus- sian move to only accept rubles for its oil and gas, with which Russia partially stabilized its currency in light of sanctions (Hetzner, 2022). 6. Implications for transport A Refinitiv study (2020) estimates that transporta- tion accounts for 47% of all BRI projects. As a result, changes in this sector due to the war in Ukraine probably have more overall influence on the pros- pects of the initiative than any other sector. The most influenced BRI corridor will without doubt be the land-based New Eurasian land bridge, which spans from the PRC to Europe, since the majority of this route travels through Russia (Fig. 1). At its cur- rent capacity, the majority of BRI cargo travels by rail, forming the so-called Iron Silk road, almost half of which is located in Russia. The number of freight routes increased from 40 in 2017 to 78 in 2021, al- most doubling its capacity. The increase in cargo was even more exponential, as the value of Chinese goods on this route increased from 8 billion USD in 2016 to 75 billion USD in 2021, with 336,000 contain- ers arriving in 183  cities in 23 countries (Umbach, 2022). In light of these numbers, we might conclude that BRI is expanding and delivering on its promises both to the world as well as to the masterminds of the project in Beijing. However, in light of the war in Ukraine, some of the most reputable and respect- ed western journals, such as Foreign Policy already called the war the turning point for BRI with head- lines such as “Putin’s War Has Killed China’s Eurasian Railway Dreams” (Brinza, 2022). The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia that followed in its wake have indeed created a new Iron Curtain spanning from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea. The sanctions at the time of this writing have not been expanded to include cargo traveling through Russia. Despite this, many companies such as transport giant Maersk on their own accord preemptively already stopped new rail bookings from Asia to Europe traveling through Russia, effectively suspending transit on the BRI Eur- asian land corridor (Umbach, 2022). Suspensions and cancelations were not limited to land routes. BRI maritime routes have experienced many complications due to the war in Ukraine. Eu- rope, which at 95% of the global share dominates insurance and reinsurance markets, has denied in- surance to Russian ships, without which they cannot travel. While the argument that ships in the Black Sea cannot be insured due to travel within an active war zone is a logical consequence of war, many insurance companies also canceled insurances to ships leaving from Russian Baltic and Pacific ports to stay ahead of fast-evolving sanctions regime (Zeihan, 2022). In light of fast-increasing insurance costs for cargo be- ing transported through Russia and its neighboring seas (Saul, 2022), the EU has announced it is consid- ering a ban on insurances provided on ships carry- ing Russian oil (Steinberg et al., 2022). In the future, the Russian state might find a way to ensure and guarantee the safe passage of ships in places such as the Black Sea, as it is in its vital interest to resume its maritime exports. Even if Europe bans Russian goods, much of its essential exports, such as wheat and oil, might be loaded on cargo ships and 6 Vladimir Prebilič, Vid Jereb transported through the Black Sea to new markets, such as the PRC and India (Winck, 2022). The PRC’s interests in the region might not be as vital as Rus- sia’s, but it might guarantee passage and insurance to transports carrying BRI cargo nonetheless to keep the Eurasian land bridge alive, save face, and wait for the war to finish and trade to resume. 7. Conclusion As is often the case in geopolitics, things are neither as good nor as bad as many would like to believe. The majority of expansion within BRI land routes since the Covid epidemic can be attributed to deep systemic problems in maritime transport, which is still the cheapest, the most convenient and, as such, a much preferable option to land transport. Land transport was never meant to play the role of the main route within BRI but as a complementary alter- native to the sea routes. Its significance can mostly be attributed to security and strategy instead of economics, as alternative land routes may provide a lifeline to the PRC in case of maritime blockade by western powers in a scenario, such as the invasion of Taiwan. BRI is often called the ‘project of the century’, and once it is understood within this timeline, a few lost trade routes do not mean a lot within the centu- ry long strategy. Cargo will be diverted, and other so far neglected routes will gain importance. The war in Ukraine will not end BRI but it will significantly change the course of the project in the short term. In the short term, the PRC will have to divert its resources into three other corridors which comple- ment the Eurasian land bridge to absorb the fallout of the war in Ukraine (Fig. 1). The first of them is the China-Pakistan economic corridor, with which China can bypass land routes and load its goods directly to and from the Indian Ocean. The second one is the Central Asia-West Asia corridor spanning from the PRC through Central Asia to the Middle East, thus absorbing parts of Russian energy exports and com- pensating for the loss of energy with sources from Iran. The third alternative is the Middle corridor, which is the closest in proximity to the Eurasian land bridge as it spans from the PRC, through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea into Caucuses through Turkey to Europe. The PRC might also find synergies with its Eurasian bridge and the Middle corridor by connect- ing the two bypassing problems of the first corridor while rerouting its cargo into the second one. In the long term, the PRC will try to divert Russian resources, especially energy, from western markets to itself. To do this, it will intensify its BRI projects leading into Russia. This will only happen after the sanctioning regime stops evolving since any big an- nounced projects to help Russia at this point in time would undoubtedly find their way on lists of sanc- tions. This created a political paradox in which the Western world pushed Russia even further into the Chinese sphere of influence. The Soviet Union never had the demographic and economic might of the PRC, while China never had the advantages of geog- raphy and resources of Russia. Pushing the two nat- ural rivals into a close alliance will almost certainly prove to be a mistake over time. This is why the West must act now and preemptively add any future BRI projects which may relieve Russia’s economic woes in the long term to the sanction list, while we still have the political will to do so. European countries will suffer the economic fallout of Russian sanctions, and we must make sure the PRC does not profit from them through BRI in the long term. References Aizhu C., Zhu J., Xu M., 2022, China’s Sinopec pauses Russia pro- jects, Beijing wary of sanctions –sources, Reuters, https:// www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-chinas- sinopec-pauses-russia-projects-beijing-wary-sanctions- sources-2022-03-25/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Blackwill R., Harris J., 2016, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Brant R., 2022, Ukraine crisis: US warns China against helping Russia, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-chi- na-60732486 (accessed 05 June 2022). Brinza A., 2022, Putin’s War Has Killed China’s Eurasian Rail- way Dreams, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy. com/2022/03/01/belt-road-initiative-new-eurasian-land- bridge-china-russia-poland/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Broom D., 2022, Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of petroleum products - but what exactly are they? World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/agen- da/2022/04/which-petroleum-products-does-russia-sup- ply-to-world/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Chatzky A., McBride J., 2020, China’s Massive Belt and Road Ini- tiative, Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/ backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative (accessed 05 June 2022). Dodds K., 2019, A Very Short Introduction to Geopolitics, Ox- ford University Press, Oxford. Edmond C., 2022, How much energy does the EU import from Russia? World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum. org/agenda/2022/03/eu-energy-russia-oil-gas-import/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Flint C., 2017, Introduction to Geopolitics, Routledge, New York. Glick R., Taylor A.M., 2005, Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, https://www.frbsf. org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/ wp05-11bk.pdf (accessed 05 June 2022). https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-chinas-sinopec-pauses-russia-projects-beijing-wary-sanctions-sources-2022-03-25/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-chinas-sinopec-pauses-russia-projects-beijing-wary-sanctions-sources-2022-03-25/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-chinas-sinopec-pauses-russia-projects-beijing-wary-sanctions-sources-2022-03-25/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-chinas-sinopec-pauses-russia-projects-beijing-wary-sanctions-sources-2022-03-25/ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60732486 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60732486 https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/01/belt-road-initiative-new-eurasian-land-bridge-china-russia-poland/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/01/belt-road-initiative-new-eurasian-land-bridge-china-russia-poland/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/01/belt-road-initiative-new-eurasian-land-bridge-china-russia-poland/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/which-petroleum-products-does-russia-supply-to-world/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/which-petroleum-products-does-russia-supply-to-world/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/which-petroleum-products-does-russia-supply-to-world/ https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/eu-energy-russia-oil-gas-import/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/eu-energy-russia-oil-gas-import/ https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp05-11bk.pdf https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp05-11bk.pdf https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp05-11bk.pdf Implications of the war in Ukraine on the Belt and Road Initiative 7 Haddad R., 2022, How Russia hooked Europe on its oil and gas – and overcame US efforts to prevent energy dependence on Moscow, The Conversation, https://theconversation. com/how-russia-hooked-europe-on-its-oil-and-gas-and- overcame-us-efforts-to-prevent-energy-dependence- on-moscow-174518 (accessed 05 June 2022). Hetzner C., 2022, Why Putin wants Russia to be paid in rubles, The Fortune Magazine, https://fortune.com/2022/04/01/ why-putin-wants-russia-to-be-paid-in-roubles/ (accessed 05 June 2022). IEA, 2020, Changes in transport behaviour during the Covid-19 crisis, IEA, Paris, https://www.iea.org/articles/changes- in-transport-behaviour-during-the-covid-19-crisis (ac- cessed 05 June 2022). Islam, N., 2019, Silk and Road to Belt and Road Initiative, Springer Nature Singapore Ltd., Singapore. Kohli H.S., Linn J.F., Zucker L.M. (Eds.), 2019, China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Potential Transformation of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, SAGE Publications London. Lintner B., 2019, The Costliest Pearl: China’s Struggle for India’s Ocean, Oxford University press, Oxford. Maçães B., 2017, What you need to know to understand Belt and Road, World Economic Forum, https://www.wefo- rum.org/agenda/2018/12/what-you-need-to-know-one- belt-one-road/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Nedopil C., 2022, Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative. Shanghai, Green Finance & Development Center, FISF Fudan University, https://greenfdc.org/countries-of-the- belt-and-road-initiative-bri/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Pan E., 2006, The Promise and Pitfalls of China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’, Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/back- grounder/promise-and-pitfalls-chinas-peaceful-rise (ac- cessed 05 June 2022). Politi J., 2022, CIA director says China ‘unsettled’ by Ukraine war, The Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/a4e- 8de3b-a2aa-4f10-a820-a910274175a8 (accessed 05 June 2022). Refinitiv, 2020, BRI Connect: An Initiative in Numbers, https:// vdocuments.mx/bri-connect-an-initiative-in-numbers- 3rd-issue -2020-6-4-projec ts-across.html (accessed 05 June 2022). Reuters, 2022, Saudi Arabia is China’s top crude supplier again as Russian oil falls 9%, https://www.reuters.com/business/ energy/saudi-arabia-is-chinas-top-crude-supplier-again- russian-oil-falls-9-2022-03-20/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Russel D., Locklear S., 2020, China Is Weaponizing the Belt and Road. What Can the US Do About It? The Diplomat, https:// thediplomat.com/2020/10/china-is-weaponizing-the- belt-and-road-what-can-the-us-do-about-it/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Said S., Kalin S., 2022, Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales, The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-con- siders-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil- sales-11647351541 (accessed 05 June 2022). Saul J., 2022, Insurance costs of shipping through Black Sea soar, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/insurance- costs-shipping-through-black-sea-soar-2022-02-25/ (ac- cessed 05 June 2022). Steinberg J., Norman L., Wallace J., 2022, EU Considers Insur- ance Ban for Ships Carrying Russian Oil, The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-considers-in- surance-ban-for-ships-carrying-russian-oil-11651935600 (accessed 05 June 2022). Stewart P.T., 2020, Trade for Peace Week at the WTO – A Posi- tive Look at How Trade Can and Should Contribute to Global Peace and Stability, Washington International Trade As- sociation, https://www.wita.org/blogs/trade-for-peace- week/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Tang F., Wang O., 2022, China’s imports from Russia surge to new high, defying US calls to cut ties over Ukraine war, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/econ- omy/china-economy/article/3177046/chinas-imports- russia-surge-new-high-defying-us-calls-cut (accessed 05 June 2022). Umbach F., 2022, How China’s Belt and Road Initiative is far- ing, Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS), https://www. gisreportsonline.com/r/belt-road-initiative/ (accessed 05 June 2022). van der Merwe B., 2022, Weekly data: War in Ukraine will leave commodity prices high for years to come, Investment Moni- tor, https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ ukraine-crisis/war-ukraine-commodity-prices-high-im- pact (accessed 05 June 2022). Vuksic S., 2022, Russia Is Now the World’s Most Sanctioned Country, Castellum.AI, https://www.castellum.ai/insights/ russia-is-now-the-worlds-most-sanctioned-country (ac- cessed 05 June 2022). Winck B., 2022, China and India are saving Russia from eco- nomic collapse, Business Insider, https://www.businessin- sider.com/china-india-saving-russia-economic-collapse- oil-gas-markets-imports-2022-4 (accessed 05 June 2022). Yau N., 2020, Russia and China’s Quiet Rivalry in Central Asia, Foreign Policy Research Institute, https://www.fpri.org/ article/2020/09/russia-and-chinas-quiet-rivalry-in-cen- tral-asia/ (accessed 05 June 2022). Zeihan P., 2022, Maritime Insurance, Russia, and the Ukraine War, Zeihan on Geopolitics, https://zeihan.com/mari- time-insurance-russia-and-the-ukraine-war (accessed 05 June 2022). https://theconversation.com/how-russia-hooked-europe-on-its-oil-and-gas-and-overcame-us-efforts-to-prevent-energy-dependence-on-moscow-174518 https://theconversation.com/how-russia-hooked-europe-on-its-oil-and-gas-and-overcame-us-efforts-to-prevent-energy-dependence-on-moscow-174518 https://theconversation.com/how-russia-hooked-europe-on-its-oil-and-gas-and-overcame-us-efforts-to-prevent-energy-dependence-on-moscow-174518 https://theconversation.com/how-russia-hooked-europe-on-its-oil-and-gas-and-overcame-us-efforts-to-prevent-energy-dependence-on-moscow-174518 https://fortune.com/2022/04/01/why-putin-wants-russia-to-be-paid-in-roubles/ https://fortune.com/2022/04/01/why-putin-wants-russia-to-be-paid-in-roubles/ https://www.iea.org/articles/changes-in-transport-behaviour-during-the-covid-19-crisis https://www.iea.org/articles/changes-in-transport-behaviour-during-the-covid-19-crisis https://greenfdc.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri/ https://greenfdc.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri/ https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/promise-and-pitfalls-chinas-peaceful-rise https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/promise-and-pitfalls-chinas-peaceful-rise https://www.ft.com/content/a4e8de3b-a2aa-4f10-a820-a910274175a8 https://www.ft.com/content/a4e8de3b-a2aa-4f10-a820-a910274175a8 https://vdocuments.mx/bri-connect-an-initiative-in-numbers-3rd-issue-2020-6-4-projects-across.html https://vdocuments.mx/bri-connect-an-initiative-in-numbers-3rd-issue-2020-6-4-projects-across.html https://vdocuments.mx/bri-connect-an-initiative-in-numbers-3rd-issue-2020-6-4-projects-across.html https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/china-is-weaponizing-the-belt-and-road-what-can-the-us-do-about-it/ https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/china-is-weaponizing-the-belt-and-road-what-can-the-us-do-about-it/ https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/china-is-weaponizing-the-belt-and-road-what-can-the-us-do-about-it/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541 https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541 https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541 https://www.reuters.com/business/insurance-costs-shipping-through-black-sea-soar-2022-02-25/ https://www.reuters.com/business/insurance-costs-shipping-through-black-sea-soar-2022-02-25/ https://www.wita.org/blogs/trade-for-peace-week/ https://www.wita.org/blogs/trade-for-peace-week/ https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3177046/chinas-imports-russia-surge-new-high-defying-us-calls-cut https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3177046/chinas-imports-russia-surge-new-high-defying-us-calls-cut https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3177046/chinas-imports-russia-surge-new-high-defying-us-calls-cut https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/belt-road-initiative/ https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/belt-road-initiative/ https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/war-ukraine-commodity-prices-high-impact https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/war-ukraine-commodity-prices-high-impact https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/war-ukraine-commodity-prices-high-impact https://www.castellum.ai/insights/russia-is-now-the-worlds-most-sanctioned-country https://www.castellum.ai/insights/russia-is-now-the-worlds-most-sanctioned-country https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-saving-russia-economic-collapse-oil-gas-markets-imports-2022-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-saving-russia-economic-collapse-oil-gas-markets-imports-2022-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-saving-russia-economic-collapse-oil-gas-markets-imports-2022-4 https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/09/russia-and-chinas-quiet-rivalry-in-central-asia/ https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/09/russia-and-chinas-quiet-rivalry-in-central-asia/ https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/09/russia-and-chinas-quiet-rivalry-in-central-asia/