item: #1 of 280
          id: jracr-10
      author: Uğurlu, Seda; Kahraman, Cengiz
       title: Fuzzy Multicriteria Risk Assessment for Hazardous Waste Management: The Case Of Istanbul
        date: 2021-10-09
       words: 7304
      flesch: 45
     summary: Hazardous waste treatment methods 4. Physical treatment processes Chemical treatment processes Biological treatment processes Gas cleaning Liquid solids separation Removal of scientific components Mechanical collection Centrifugation Adsorption Adsorption Activated sludge Electrostatic precipitation Clarification Crystallization Chemical oxidation Aerobic lagoons Fabric filter Coagulation Dialysis Chemical precipitation Spray irrigation Wet scrubbing Filtration Distillation Chemical reduction Trickling filters Activated carbon adsorption Flocculation Electrodialysis Combination and addition Waste stabilization ponds Adsorption Floating Evaporation Ion exchange Foaming Leaching Neutralization Sedimentation Reverse osmosis Pyrolysis Thickening Solvent extraction Stripping Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 34 Seda Uğurlu, Cengiz Kahraman hazardous organic substances typically (e.g. decomposing certain pesticides with sodium hydroxide), ion exchange removes dissolved salts primarily inorganics from aqueous solutions, precipitation is mainly used to convert hazardous heavy metals to a less mobile, insoluble form. Hazardous waste management is an area of the waste management field concerned with the proper containment, management, and disposal of wastes which could be considered hazardous.
    keywords: alternatives; analysis; chemical; costs; criteria; decision; disposal; istanbul; management; multicriteria; processes; risk; table; treatment; waste; waste management
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        item: #2 of 280
          id: jracr-101
      author: Milík Tichý
       title: Analogies in Entity Risk Mechanics
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6985
      flesch: 49
     summary: 4. Hazards Recall here briefly some general qualities of hazards: Basically, hazards originate from one of two distinct groups of sources: (1) anthropogenic sources – hazards come from human activity/non-activity and human decisions/non- decisions (e.g., careless market analyses, insurance fraud, insufficient supervision of employees) (2) natural sources – hazards come from phenomena independent on human activities (e.g., seismic waves, inclement weather) Hazards from sources of both origins are frequently interwoven; a typical example: floods in areas where the river flow (nature) is regulated by longitudinal or transversal dams (man). Removal of hazards may reduce or entirely remove risks, but in majority of cases this does not remove hazard
    keywords: analogies; company; concern; fig; hazards; load; material; mechanics; risk; size; stress; structure; system
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        item: #3 of 280
          id: jracr-103
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Multiple Internet of Intelligences for Risk Analysis
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7039
      flesch: 63
     summary: Normal Diffusion Technique for Risk Assessment The concept of information diffusion (Huang, 1997) was first introduced in function learning from a small sample of data (Huang and Moraga, 2004). The approximate reasoning of information diffusion was used to estimate probabilities and fuzzy relationships from scant, incomplete data for grassland wildfires (Liu et al., 2010).
    keywords: agents; diffusion; information; intelligences; internet; ioi; knowledge; model; question; risk
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        item: #4 of 280
          id: jracr-104
      author: Ming Xu; Zongzhi Wu; Yun Luo
       title: Parts of Speech of AnQuan
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1232
      flesch: 82
     summary: China safety science journal, 2003, 13(2):1-3 8. Keywords: AnQuan, parts of speech, safety science, nominalization “安全”的词性 许铭 1,2,* ，吴宗之 3, 罗云 1,2 1. 中国地质大学（北京）工程技术学院，北京，100083
    keywords: anquan; beijing; china; chinese; dictionary; press; safety; science
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        item: #5 of 280
          id: jracr-105
      author: Lotfi A. Zadeh
       title: The Crisis of Undercoordination
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 894
      flesch: 48
     summary: Two doctrines emerge from an analysis of behavior of such systems. A well-known result in systems analysis is that highly interdependent large-scale systems carry a high risk of catastrophic failures.
    keywords: crisis; debt; undercoordination
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        item: #6 of 280
          id: jracr-107
      author: Bolanle A. Olaniran; Andrew Potter; Katy A. Ross; Brad Johnson
       title: A Gamer’s Nightmare: An Analysis of the Sony PlayStation Hacking Crisis
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5820
      flesch: 50
     summary: This project used a case study focusing on Sony PlayStation. Keywords: Crisis management, Crisis preparedness, Anticipatory model, Hacking.
    keywords: amcm; consumers; control; crisis; hacking; information; management; model; network; playstation; security; sony
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        item: #7 of 280
          id: jracr-108
      author: Guiyun You; Shanshan Cao; Jing Feng;  Shu Yu
       title: An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Property Insurance Premiums and Macroeconomic Variables Based on ARDL Model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3853
      flesch: 58
     summary: The results indicate that GDP is the major factor driving the growth of property insurance premiums in China; fixed-asset investment has significant impact on Chinese property insurance premiums, and they show the conspicuous negative correlation; Moreover, CPI has little effect on the premium income. The result indicated that the economic growth had a positive impact on property insurance premiums.
    keywords: cpi; gdp; insurance; model; premiums; property; term; test; variables
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        item: #8 of 280
          id: jracr-109
      author: Ortwin Renn
       title: Emerging Risks: Methodology, Classification and Policy Implications
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 12843
      flesch: 49
     summary: Atlantis Press Journal style Emerging Risks: Methodology, Classification and Policy Implications Ortwin Renn Stuttgart Research Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies, Stuttgart University Seidenstr. Emerging risks can be further broken down into three distinct, but overlapping categories, based on their main characteristic at a certain stage.
    keywords: atlantis; authors; change; context; decision; global; governance; irgc; knowledge; management; new; opportunities; potential; press; protocol; renn; risk; risk governance; risk management; scenarios; step; system; uncertainty; world
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        item: #9 of 280
          id: jracr-110
      author: Alex Garcia de Almeida; Marco Antonio Gaya de Figueiredo
       title: Identification of Global Indicators for Regulatory Risk Management in Production Platforms -Case Study of Brazilian Industry
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4774
      flesch: 37
     summary: To be sure that all actions are going in a right direction, regulator’s can use safety indicators to follow safety performance and show deviations and the need to add corrective actions. Frequently, a retrospective analysis shows that early signs arising from safety indicators could avoid major 1 Agência Nacional de Petróleo, gás natural e biocombustíveis (ANP) 2 More information in SEPEDA, Adrian L.;
    keywords: accidents; analysis; focus; global; indicators; information; management; performance; process; results; risk; safety
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        item: #10 of 280
          id: jracr-111
      author: Nikolaos P. Ventikos; Alexandros Koimtzoglou; Konstantinos Louzis
       title: Shipwreck: A Crisis with Challenging Solutions
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8738
      flesch: 57
     summary: Keywords: shipwrecks, wreck removal operation, wreck removal factors. 1 Introduction Shipwrecks are a growing concern for maritime authorities and port states around the globe either because they inhibit navigation or they pose an environmental threat due to leaks of toxic substances such as oil. This paper attempts to highlight the main parameters of a wreck removal operation, as well as to present the challenges faced and the risks assumed by salvors during wreck removal operations, by examining an illustrative case study.
    keywords: capacity; force; lifting; operation; removal operation; seabed; shipwreck; time; water; weight; wreck; wreck removal
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        item: #11 of 280
          id: jracr-112
      author: K. Harald Drager; Thomas V. Robertson
       title: TIEMS DREVS Initiative: Disaster Resilience Establishment for Vulnerable Societies
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4709
      flesch: 39
     summary: It is clear that as the largest countries struggle with the pressing need for disaster management, there has been an increasing interest in structured and consistent disaster management education of first responders and emergency managers. Many aspects of disaster management are trans- border.
    keywords: cooperation; coordination; countries; disaster; emergency; international; management; preparedness; response; risk; tiems; world
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        item: #12 of 280
          id: jracr-113
      author: Ntzeremes, Panagiotis; Kirytopoulos,  Konstantinos;  Leopoulos,  Vrassidas
       title: Discussing the Need to Manage Uncertainty Relating to Users in Road Tunnel Fire Risk Assessment
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6037
      flesch: 52
     summary: [4] Ntzeremes P, Kirytopoulos K. Evaluating the role of risk assess- ment for road tunnel fire safety: a comparative review within the EU. Road tunnel users do not constitute an exception.
    keywords: accidents; analysis; assessment; behaviour; evacuation; fire; process; risk; road; safety; tunnel; uncertainty; users
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        item: #13 of 280
          id: jracr-114
      author: Xie, Xiaofeng;  Yang,  Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou,  Zongfang
       title: Research on the Contagion Mechanism of Associated Credit Risk in the Supply Chain
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1142
      flesch: 63
     summary: Trade credit, loan guarantee and interpersonal relationship constitute the contagion channel of associated credit risk in the supply chain. This study is helpful for the regulatory authorities to strengthen the management of enterprise credit risk in the supply chain.
    keywords: chain; contagion; credit; risk; sichuan; supply; supply chain
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        item: #14 of 280
          id: jracr-115
      author:  Liu, Liyuan
       title: The Diamond Princess Cruise: An Accidentally Experimental Model of COVID-19
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 815
      flesch: 59
     summary: 客房，直接凭栏观赏海上美景。 远远望去，钻石公主号邮轮恰似一座足有十多层楼房高的小 山，乳白色的船身在阳光的直射下，显得十分明艳。因此， 钻石公主号邮轮可以看作是新冠状病毒肺炎在一栋居民大楼 里传染传播的实验模型。 3. 事件 此次钻石公主号邮轮搭载有2666名来自世界各地的乘客(其中 近一半为日本公民)及1045名船员，总人数达到3700余人，涉 及到50多个国家和地区。看来，这是相当“理想”的世界性 人类病毒传染实验基地。其中半数为日本人，有约380名美籍 乘客（超过40人确诊感染），约330名香港居民（感染者超过 22 名），255名加拿大籍公民（感染人数不祥）。 因为有一名已下船的香港乘客在2月1日确诊新型冠状病毒 肺炎，邮轮于2月3日晚提前返回至日本横滨港，从2月5日起 横滨港附近开始为期14天的“海上隔离”。与此同时，日本 厚生劳动省开始对船上人员进行检疫工作。短短一周的时 间里，“钻石公主号”邮轮上的确诊人数陆续突破一百、两 百、三百的大关。 4. 过程 1) 1月20日，钻石公主号邮轮从日本横滨出发。 2) 1 墙壁。疏散与分散，才是最好的隔离与安全保障。 2) 要把已感染的病人，即时转移到医院去。传染病医院最 好设在人烟稀少的郊区。 3) 让其他人最好暂时离开新发病的局部疫区。惹不起，如 果躲得起的话，尽量暂时躲一躲。 4) 无症状的隐性感染者，是一个大群体，防不胜防。害人 之心不可有，但防人之心不可无。保持距离，越“远” 越好，乡村原野，是很好的避难所。 5) 社会急需简便快捷的无症状病毒携带者的普查方法。 6) 只有盾而没有矛，只防守而不进攻，是不行的。全人类 的重大目标和顶尖人才，需要从更小的芯片、更遥远的 太空中回头，对付这幽灵般的病毒。 鉴于：新加坡 、马来西亚和印度，都不断出现新病例，说明 夏天的气候并不能阻止这个新病毒的传染和发病，但可以指 望发病少些。看来，我们最后的指望只能是疫苗了。 当新冠肺炎世界大流行后
    keywords: infection; princess; quarantine
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        item: #15 of 280
          id: jracr-116
      author: Huang, Chongfu; Huang, Gordon
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 749
      flesch: 44
     summary: The papers can be divided into four topics: COVID-19, disaster psychological crisis, risk analysis and risk assessment In this issue, two papers are in COVID-19 Topic. The second paper “Research on the prevention and control of COVID-19 risk in Long-term care facilities based on Prospect Theory ” by Fengying Zhang, et al., attempts to explore the uncertain relationship between the identification of the risk of COVID-19 and the management and care behavior of the elderly care insti- tutions, aiming to achieve management optimization.
    keywords: model; paper; risk
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        item: #16 of 280
          id: jracr-117
      author: Xu, Xuanhua; Liu, Yushi;  Zhang, Zitao
       title: Study on Mutation Mechanism of Victim’s Psychological Behavior State after Major Natural Disasters
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8304
      flesch: 44
     summary: Email: xuxh@csu.edu.cn https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200415.001 https://www.atlantis-press.com/journals/jracr http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ mailto:xuxh%40csu.edu.cn?subject= 28 X. Xu et al. / Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response 10(2) 27–36 However, there are some deficiencies in the current researches on natural disasters and psychological behaviors of disaster victims. Risk cognition plays an intermediary role between needs and psychological behavior.
    keywords: analysis; behavior; behavior state; catastrophe; change; demand; disaster; disaster victims; factors; figure; material; model; needs; people; risk; state; theory; victims
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        item: #17 of 280
          id: jracr-118
      author: Zhang, Fengying; Kong,  Jianhui; Xie, Xiaofeng; Xu, Kai; Zhou,  Zongfang
       title: Research on the Prevention and Control of COVID-19 Risk in Long-term Care Facilities based on Prospect Theory
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2334
      flesch: 67
     summary: Nursing staff behavior, risk management cost, risk loss and other parameters have different risk management effects for the COVID-19. Establishment and application effect evaluation of inpatient nursing risk assessment, early warning monitoring and communication system.
    keywords: analysis; care; china; covid-19; facilities; management; nursing; risk; term; theory; u p; zhang
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        item: #18 of 280
          id: jracr-119
      author: Huang, Chongfu
       title: Analysis of Death Risk of COVID-19 under Incomplete Information
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 10294
      flesch: 60
     summary: Death risk of COVID-19 is a scene in the future asso- ciated with death caused by COVID-19. We denote the death risk as D. For a risk analyst, the categories of death risks of COVID-19 are different for different regions, differ- ent times, and different populations.
    keywords: analysis; covid-19; death; death risk; disease; distribution; information; model; mortality; percent; probability; risk; u u
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        item: #19 of 280
          id: jracr-120
      author: Pang, Lei; Zhang, Zhiwen; Yang, Kai; Lv, Pengfei; Sun,  Siheng
       title: Patterns of Fatal Explosion Accidents in China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6115
      flesch: 59
     summary: REFERENCES [1] Xiao S. Causation analysis method and application research of gas explosion accidents in coal mines. For example, there were 493 fatal accidents in China in 2018, 51 or 10.35% of which were explosion accidents.
    keywords: accidents; analysis; china; death; explosion; fea; figure; gas; month; province; safety
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        item: #20 of 280
          id: jracr-121
      author: Liu, Xinying; Li,  Hang; Hu, Xiaobing
       title: An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1035
      flesch: 84
     summary: The case study shows that the method of impact- spread tree can effectively distinguish between black swan events and non-black swan events. At present, the analysis of black swan events is generally preconceived (that is, the event is assumed to be a black swan event, and then the influence of the event is discussed), or whether it is a black swan event is directly judged according to its characteristics.
    keywords: 300300; analysis; china; event; max; risk; swan
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        item: #21 of 280
          id: jracr-122
      author: Zhang, Mu; Huang, Xiaonan; Yang, Changbing
       title: A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6086
      flesch: 59
     summary: In view of this, by introducing the seasonal decomposition and ARIMA model, this paper proposes a sales forecasting model for the consumer goods with holiday effects. Time series model is a model based on its past value and random disturbance term.
    keywords: analysis; consumer; effects; forecast; goods; holiday; holiday effects; model; prediction; sales; series; trend; value
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        item: #22 of 280
          id: jracr-123
      author: Xu, Weixi; Xu, Xuanhua
       title: Risk Analysis and Crisis Management of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1869
      flesch: 86
     summary: (2) 若专家按互补型标度[8]进行赋值, 给出互补判断矩阵 B = (bij)n×n, 它具有如下性质: bij > 0, b ij+ bji = 1, bii = 0.5, i, j ∈ N. 若 bikbkjbji = bkibjkbij, i, j,k ∈ N, 则称 B = (bij)n×n是完全一致性互补判断矩阵. 定理 1.1　设 A = (aij)n×n是互反判断矩阵, 则通过转换公式 bij = 1/(1+ aji),　i, j ∈ N (1) 可得互补判断矩阵 B = (bij)n×n.
    keywords: decision; risk
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        item: #23 of 280
          id: jracr-125
      author: Xiaowen Ding; Wei Wang; Guohe Huang; Qingwei Chen; Guoliang Wei
       title: A Two-Step Water-Management Approach for Nuclear Power Plants in Inland China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 11122
      flesch: 42
     summary: Researches on water resources management for inland NPPs have been carried out by several countries such as the USA, France, Canada and China. Therefore, as an extension of the previous efforts on water resources management, a management framework of the TSWM approach for NPPs in inland China is to be proposed.
    keywords: ap1000; assessment; china; construction; consumption; discharge; inland; inland china; management; npps; nuclear; power; prc; report; tswm; wastewater; water; water consumption; water resources; withdraw; wra
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        item: #24 of 280
          id: jracr-126
      author: Yanling Hu
       title: Bill Business Risk and Prevention of Small and Medium Commercial Bank
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2918
      flesch: 48
     summary: From a regulatory point of view, specific regulations regarding commercial bank bill business risk control should be made. Z. Dan, Key point of China's commercial banks in the field of bill business risk prevention, Financial economics (18) (2009) 110-111.
    keywords: acceptance; bank; bill; business; discount; loan; risk
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        item: #25 of 280
          id: jracr-127
      author: Xianfu Cheng; Honghu Sun; Zhang Yuan; Guanglai Xu
       title: Flood Disaster Risk Assessment and Spatial Distribution Characteristics along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1663
      flesch: 78
     summary: Flood risk index and risk rating of area along the Yangtze River in Anhui province were drawn by using GIS spatial analysis technology. A comprehensive method to evaluate flood disasters based on basyesian stochastic assessment method[J].
    keywords: anhui; assessment; disaster; flood; risk
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        item: #26 of 280
          id: jracr-128
      author: Francesca Eleuteri; Lisa S. Arduino
       title: Individual, Community and Societal Effects of the Global Financial Crisis: a Bioecological Model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7171
      flesch: 37
     summary: This approach contrasts sharply with the literature on economic crisis, which focuses mainly on sociological effects without considering biological, individual and macrosystemic effects (D. Stuckler et al., 2009). This alteration in relative suicide risk by national unemployment level is in agreement with a comparative study of 26 European Union countries that found substantial variation between populations in how sensitive suicide mortality was to economic crises.
    keywords: bronfenbrenner; crisis; effects; et al; health; recession; research; social; stuckler; studies; unemployment
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        item: #27 of 280
          id: jracr-13
      author: Huang, Chongfu; Shi, Xing
       title: A Discrete Model of the Expected Loss for Catastrophe Insurance in Natural Disasters
        date: 2021-10-09
       words: 2156
      flesch: 87
     summary: Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 57 =总计保额×9 级以上台风年度保险期望损失率 =（7,260+11,820+5,280+4,860）×0.0827% =24.16494（亿元） 100％ 12 级以上 97.1069％ 1.8442％ 0.8475％ 0.1522％ 0.0492％ 100％ Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 54 里。虽然台风影响的范围方圆直径约为 1000 公里左 右，但根据历史数据，在这个椭圆形半径为 80 公里 的环带内，暴风和暴雨强度 大，对地面财产和人 员造成大面积、大范围、大量保险标的重大损失和 伤亡可能性 高，对其他地方的影响是较小的。假 设台风在福建中部登陆，由东南向西北移动，横穿 整个福建省，且以台风中心所作的四个象限内都遭 遇大风暴雨，那么我们可以将其近似看作一个宽 160 公里，长 480 公里（福建东西 大间距约 480 公里）的长方形。则一次 9 级以上台风，在上述移 动路径下，对福建 为完整的、且 大范围的破坏 性台风灾害所致的遭灾面积为 7.68 万平方公里，约 占福建省陆地面积 12.4 万平方公里的 61.93％（由 于考虑的是巨灾台风对住宅的影响，故只考虑陆地 面积）。 巨灾保险区划一般较大，不同的巨灾风险、触 发的强度、发生位置、次生灾害、影响时间等因 素，对整个巨灾保险区划内的保险标的影响范围和 程度差异是较大的。就福建住宅台风巨灾保险区划 来说，一个巨灾台风也不可能对福建整个保险区划 都有破坏性影响，其影响范围和程度主要看生成时 间（是否与大潮汛、月盈月亏）、登陆地点、台风 强度、发展过程、行进路线、移动速度、影响时间 等因素来决定。如 2008 年的海鸥台风虽然达到 10 级，且在福建霞浦县长春镇登陆，但仅仅掠过福建 的北部（非常临近浙江的南部地区），随后就移向 东海，影响路径和事件十分短暂，所以该台风对福 建的影响的范围很微小。 基于以上分析，我们只能凭经验假设一次 9 级 以上台风对福建住宅台风巨灾保险区划的平均影响 范围取中间值为 30％，即，表 9
    keywords: atlantis; authors; catastrophe; copyright; model; press
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        item: #28 of 280
          id: jracr-130
      author: Qian Zhang;  Deyin Huang; Mao Liu
       title: Study on Risk Evaluation based on Occupational Exposure Evaluation and Carcinogenic Risk Simulation
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2763
      flesch: 43
     summary: Second, the internal dose is induced into calculating formula of carcinogenic risk. Table 2 shows the mathematical statistics results of BD actual measured concentration and the simulatioin results of internal dose and carcinogenic risk.
    keywords: 1,3; butadiene; carcinogenic; dose; internal; model; pbpk; risk; simulation
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        item: #29 of 280
          id: jracr-131
      author: Vincent B.Y. Gan
       title: Banking Balance Sheet Channel of Systemic Risk
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 11093
      flesch: 53
     summary: Microsoft Word - Banking Balance Sheet Channel of Systemic Risk Received 24 January 2015 Accepted 20 February 2015 Banking Balance Sheet Channel of Systemic Risk Vincent B.Y. Gan Putra Business School,Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia E-mail: gan.phd11@grad.putrabs.edu.my Abstract The role of the banking balance sheet as the source and transmitter of systemic risk is explored. The effects of cross-border bank mergers on bank risk and value.
    keywords: asset; authors; balance; balance sheet; bank; banking; capital; crisis; equity; evidence; finance; journal; leverage; liquidity; market; measure; model; ratio; risk; sheet; stock
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        item: #30 of 280
          id: jracr-132
      author: Kristen Alley Swain; Lindsay A. Jordan
       title: BP’s Reputation Repair Strategies during the Gulf Oil Spill
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 9386
      flesch: 51
     summary: There are three phases of crisis management: pre- crisis, crisis response, and post crisis. Coombs outlined three phases of crisis management: pre-crisis, crisis response, and post crisis.
    keywords: crisis; crisis response; crisis responsibility; explosion; gulf; management; oil; oil spill; phase; repair; reputation; response; responsibility; spill; strategies; tweets
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        item: #31 of 280
          id: jracr-133
      author: Emma Anyika
       title: Non-Diversifiable Risk in Investment Portfolios --- an Aid to Investment Decision Making
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8935
      flesch: 68
     summary: Therefore, it follows from the derived values of ix in equation (7) and substituting them in the square root of equations (2) & (3) that the true function for portfolio diversifiable risk is given by 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 , Abstract Modeling Non - Diversifiable risk in investment portfolios is undertaken in this paper together with redefinition of estimators of diversifiable risk and portfolio expected returns to reflect normal market conditions.
    keywords: investment; non; returns; risk; s s;  
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        item: #32 of 280
          id: jracr-134
      author: Weiquan Yao
       title: Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization with Nelder-Mead Simplex Search Method
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4680
      flesch: 64
     summary: This hybrid algorithm is very easy to be implemented since it does not require continuity and differentiability of objective functions, and it also combines powerful global search ability of QPSO with precise local search of NM simplex method. This paper tries to integrate NM simplex method into QPSO, and proposes hybrid QPSO-NM algorithm so as to improve the local search ability of QPSO.
    keywords: algorithm; clpso; dms; function; optimization; particle; qpso; search; simplex; spso
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        item: #33 of 280
          id: jracr-135
      author: Peng Chen; Jiquan Zhang; Lingfeng Zhang; Yingyue Sun
       title: Research of City Rainstorm Waterlogging Scene Simulation -- in Daoli District of Harbin City as an Example
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1236
      flesch: 81
     summary: ”， 模拟城市道路积水区域和淹没深度 [15、16] 。本模型在 吸取有限差分法和有限体积法的优点，在网格周边 计算流量，在网格形心处计算水位 [17-18] ，以提高模 型计算的精度。研究区不规则网格绘制过程是利用 ARCGIS 软件实现的，绘制后的不规则网格进行属性 赋值，主要包括高程、初始水深、不规则网格编号、 通道编号、下垫面糙率等。计算过程中以二维非恒 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 69 Research of City Rainstorm Waterlogging Scene Simulation    定流控制方程为基本方程，水流方向按照 x、y Journal of Hydrology, 2004, 299(3): 300-311. Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 71 Research of City Rainstorm Waterlogging Scene Simulation   
    keywords: city; rainstorm; research; scene; simulation; waterlogging
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        item: #34 of 280
          id: jracr-136
      author: Xuanhua Xu;  Chenguang Cai; Chunhong Wang
       title: Research on Society Risk Evolution Mechanism and Counter Measures in Severe Emergency Infectious Disease — in the Case of H7N9 Avian Influenza
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5319
      flesch: 46
     summary: Thus, this paper, with social risks caused by major infectious diseases as the research subject, is to construct the evolution chain of social risk to describe its process, and on this basis, to identify the key elements of risk response strategy and simulate the effectiveness of risk control with different strategies by means of the system dynamics model. System dynamics model of social risk control of disease epidemic situation.
    keywords: avian; control; epidemic; influenza; level; number; rate; residents; risk; rumors; social
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        item: #35 of 280
          id: jracr-137
      author: Liwen Chen; Yongfei Ma
       title: A Study of the Role of Customs in Global Supply Chain Management and Trade Security Based on the Authorized Economic Operator System
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4183
      flesch: 29
     summary: Collect relevant internal control materials and conduct compliance testing one item after another to examine and prove the system’s integrity, realize andidentify the business operation risk evaluate business risk control determine residual audit risk residual audit risk management reduce risk enhance value Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 90 credibility, enforcement and validity. For a long time, international trade security is simply understood as to reduce trade frictions, eliminate trade barriers and trade liberalization.
    keywords: aeo; business; control; customs; facilitation; management; risk; security; system; trade
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        item: #36 of 280
          id: jracr-138
      author: Shuzhen Li;  Alateng Tuya
       title: Disaster Risk Research Literature on Statistics Analysis in China Journal Net
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2018
      flesch: 80
     summary: Amount of core authors and articles in the core periodicals about disaster risk 人数 文献第一作者 篇数 1 史培军 20 1 黄崇福 14 1 刘希林 9 1 金磊 8 3 张继权、刘传正、扈海波 6 1 李红英 5 10 赵思建、殷杰、薛晔、吴益平、王志涛、苏筠、尚志海、罗培、刘丽、崔鹏 4 25 周洪建、张俊香、张竟竟、张春山、殷坤龙、谢全敏、唐亚明、唐川、孙才志、石菊 松、任鲁川、潘东华、倪长健、刘新立、李谢辉、金菊良、金江军、蒋卫国、胡培培、 韩用顺、葛怡、杜鹏、丁文广、陈香、陈鹏 3 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 135 期刊有 5 篇，普通期刊未被下载过。被下载 2000~1500、 1500~1000、普通期刊未被下载过。被下载 2000~1500、 1500~1000、1000~500 次的核心期刊依次有 13、32、 137 篇，普通期刊依次有 1、1、43 篇。表示灾害风险 论文的核心期刊文献的被下载次数比较多，学术界、 社会的关注度高。被下载 500 次以下的核心期刊文献 与普通期刊文献均集中在近几年，表示文献被下载具 有时间滞后特点。 2.3. 关键词：灾害风险；文献计量法；中国知识资源总库 项目基金：国家自然基金项目（41261099）资助 作者简介：李淑珍（1991—），女，内蒙古人，硕士研究生，研究方向：自然地理学、自然灾害研究 *通信作者：阿拉腾图娅（1969—），女，教授，从事资源环境遥感研究 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 5, No. 2 (July 2015), 129-140 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 129 mailto:altty@imnu.edu.cn 前言： 由于现代社会人口不断增加、物质财富不断增多， 灾害的后果日益严重，使我国涌出大量的研究员对灾 害风险进行研究，灾害风险研究文献数量不断增多。 科学文献的数量是衡量科学知识的重要尺度之一，科 学知识量的增长及其规律与科学文献的增长及其规律 是紧密联系的，灾害风险文献的数量变化可以反映该 科学领域知识量的变化情况。文献计量方法可以分析
    keywords: 1983—2014; analysis; atlantis; authors; copyright; disaster; journal; literature; press; risk
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        item: #37 of 280
          id: jracr-139
      author: Santos-Reyes, Jaime
       title: Multi-hazard Awareness, Risk Perception and Fear to Earthquakes: The Case of High-school Students in Mexico City
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5099
      flesch: 54
     summary: Experiencing Earthquakes The questionnaire included a question intended to elucidate whether the participants have experienced earthquakes. Research Article Multi-hazard Awareness, Risk Perception and Fear to Earthquakes:
    keywords: city; crime; earthquakes; fear; hazards; level; mexico; multi; participants; perception; results; risk; study
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        item: #38 of 280
          id: jracr-140
      author: Liu, Liyuan
       title: Five Supplementary Therapies for COVID-19
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3283
      flesch: 53
     summary: For severe patients and near-death patients, suction can save lives! I am surprised to see these results because it is general knowledge to inject large amount of dexamethasone (e.g. 5–10 mg) once in a while for severe patients with SARS, COVID-19 and other infections.
    keywords: coronavirus; covid-19; inflammation; patients; sars; so2; sulfur; system; treatment; viruses
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        item: #39 of 280
          id: jracr-143
      author: Li, Sisi; Zhang, Mu
       title: Equity Financing Efficiency Measurement of Listed Companies in Strategic Emerging Industries based on DEA
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3634
      flesch: 82
     summary: 0.6987，距离综合有效值1还有很大 的提升空间，生物医药最高，为0.7558，新能源最低， 为0.6463。从图5可以发现我国战略性新兴产业上市公 司的股权融资效率存在产业间的非均衡发展。其中，从 综合效率平均值来看，生物医药每年都保持最高，新一 代信息技术2014年-2016年保持在第二，新材料在2017 年-2018年保持第二，新能源每年都最低，其余产业排 名每年在变动，并且七大产业整体趋于下降趋势。 2) 七大产业平均Malmquist 指数变化及分解 从表11总体来看，2014年-2018年的年均全要素生产率变 动最高的是新能源汽车，为0.961，新能源汽车的技术效 率变动和技术变动分别为0.985和0.980，纯技术效率变动 为1.030，规模效率变动为0.960，全要素生产率变动在技 术变动下降1.5%和技术效率变动下降2%的综合作用下，全 要素生产率变动下降3.9%，技术效率变动在纯技术效率变 动作用下上升3%，在规模效率变动下下降4%，所以技术 效率变动在两者共同作用下下降1.5%，相比之下，全要素 生产率变动受技术变动作用的影响会更大一点，其次是 规模效率变动作用。年均全要素生产率变动最低的是节 能环保，为0.951，节能环保全要素生产率变动下降4.9% ，是在技术变动作用下降2.5%和技术效率变动下降2.5%共 同作用下产生的结果，而技术效率变动下降完全是由于 规模效率变动的下降引起的，因为纯技术效率变动是上 升2.8%，而规模效率变动下降5%，七大产业总体效率的 下降主要是技术效率变动的下降和技术变动的下降，而 技术效率变动的下降是由规模效率变动下降引起的，因 为样本期间内，七大产业的技术效率变动和技术变动都 是小于1的，纯技术效率变动大于1，正是由于三者的共 同下降使得七大产业的股权融资效率平均值在样本期间 内都是处于下降趋势，表明整个样本观测期间七大战略 性新兴产业发展的总体效率是下降的，七大战略性新兴 产业在技术创新和资源配置等方面都需要进行完善和提 高。 表 9 | 七 大 产 业 综 合 效 率 有 效 情 况 年 份 效 率 节 能 环 保 新 一 2014年规模效率平均值为0.9061，2018年为0.829，可以 看到所有公司每年规模效率平均值是逐年递减的，并且 208家公司纯技术效率分布差异大。两个表说明公司产量 的增加比例与公司投入各生产要素增加的比例不相等， 没有达到规模有效状态，公司的融资效率处于较低的水 平。 4) 从规模报酬进行分析 从表6样本上市公司规模报酬分布情况可以看出，2014 年规模报酬不变的有11家公司，占比5.19%，这是五年最 高，说明这11家公司在2014年里公司产量的增加比例与 公司投入各生产要素增加的比例相等，实现了规模有效 状态，有欢瑞世纪、京威股份、美尚生态、中天科技、 长园集团、航发动力、中海油服、中材节能、中材节 能、福斯特、老百姓，2017年和2018年没有一家公司达到 了规模报酬不变，从5年总体看，达到规模报酬不变约每 年3.2家，占比1.538%，只有很少部分公司实现了规模有效 状态，大部分公司处于规模报酬递减阶段，平稳在97.98% ，这些公司应该采取一定手段来减少生产要素的投入， 如果盲目的扩张，可能会使得公司的生产投入不能与当 前的生产水平相匹配，从而导致公司产出减少，公司规 模效益下降，融资效率低下，从2014年到2018年的规模报 表3 | 样本上市公司综合效率分布情况 效率区间 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年 2018年 公司数 占比 公司数 占比 公司数 占比 公司数 占比 公司数 占比 综合效率 1 9 4.33% 4 1.92% 1 0.48% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.8<=a<1
    keywords: analysis; efficiency; financing; response; t j; t t; zhang; 公司数;  
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        item: #40 of 280
          id: jracr-145
      author: Fleming, Piers; England, Harry
       title: Anchor-based Goals and Personality Effects on Hazard Identification in Risk Assessment
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4968
      flesch: 50
     summary: Hazard identification is also a legal requirement for UK employers as part of employee protection [1]. Risk assessment and hazard identification are vital to mitigate potential hazards.
    keywords: anchor; assessment; count; hazards; identification; participants; personality; risk; task; time; word
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        item: #41 of 280
          id: jracr-147
      author: Xiaomei Guo; Xiaobing Hu; Hang Li; Zhen Xu
       title: A Study on Spatial-Temporal Rainstorm Risk at Civil Airports in China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1851
      flesch: 93
     summary: [2] 。全球灾害数据库（EM-DAT）统计表明， 降水，洪涝，台风等灾害是中国主要的气象灾害， 而且呈上升趋势。随着中国经济快速发展，民用航 空运输业也日新月异，根据 2013 年中国民航统计公 报显示：2013 年全行业完成运输总周转量 671.72 亿吨公里，比增长 10.9%；全国民航运输机场完成 旅客吞吐量 7.54 亿人次，固定资产投资总额达 1452.2 亿元。气象灾害已经成为影响民航可持续发 展的重要因素，暴雨，台风，雪灾，沙尘暴等灾害 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 5, No. 3 (October 2015), 188-198 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 188 X.M. Guo et al 天气都成为中国民航主要的致灾因子，结果轻则是 直接导致机场和航路关闭，并可能造成机场和航路 导航设备的损坏；严重则造成大面积航班延误，甚 至引发灾难性的航空事故。例如，2008 年我国南方 遭遇百年罕见的雪灾，造成全国共 30 多个机场间 断性关闭，航班大面积延误、停飞，导致近千万旅 客滞留机场；2000 年武汉空难，机组、旅客共遇难 51 人，原因是飞机在盘旋过程中可能遭遇雷击或者 风切变；2002 年 4 月 15 日，中国国航由于大暴雨， 加上操作不当，发生“金釜山空难”，遇难 128 人。 我国灾害性天气具有全天候、全年性和突发性等特 征，而且地方性特点明显 [3-4] 。春季多风、西北地区 常有扬沙，夏季东部地区多台风和雷暴，秋季有雷 暴，冬季北部和西部多大风和降雪，其中大风、大 雾、降雪、扬沙、雷暴等恶劣天气条件严重影响航 班的准点率和飞机飞行安全。根据美国航空数据网 站 FLIGHTSTATS 公布的数据 [5] 2014 年 10 月份中 国的航空公司的准点率最高的是中国国航，准点率 73.3%，南方航空，东方航空的准点率则更低，为 68%左右。根据中国民航局统计数据显示，2013 年 全国航空公司共执行航班 278.0 万班次，不正常航 班占 76.9 万班次，其中天气原因 21.8%。航班延误， 取消等不正常航班给旅客出行等带来重大影响， 2013 年收到的旅客投诉同比 2012 年增加 13.66%， 甚至由于航班延误而引发旅客打砸机场的事件。气 象灾害已对民航的发展构成严重威胁。民航气象是 航空业正常运行的保障 [6] ，全面地、系统地进行民 航气象灾害风险研究对我国民用航空业的可持续发 展及安全运营具有巨大的战略意义。 灾害学作为一门交叉学科， 20 世纪伴随着保 险业发展在一些发达国家迅速发展。直到 60 年代， 自然灾害的研究仍然主要限于灾害机理以及灾害预 测，侧重于灾害形成条件的调查和活动过程的考察。 一些较发达国家在 70 年代开始进行灾害风险的评 估工作。美国内务部的调查所等相关部门对加利福 尼亚、旧金山等地区的滑坡、地震等 10 种自然灾害 进行了风险评价与损失评估，其中包括飓风、龙卷 风、风暴潮等气象灾害风险评估 R≥221.7 12 50 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 191 , i i t v v V T L   (3) 式中，t 是某机场有暴雨当天的计划航班总数，Ti 为某机场受当天暴雨影响的非正常航班数（取消、 返航、延误和迫降等），v 为非正常航班所占比例， Li 为暴雨的时长，V 为某机场的暴雨脆弱性。计算 所得结果用自然断点分级法将承灾体的脆弱性指数 分 5 个等级，并基于 ArcGIS 绘制出中国暴雨脆弱性 区划图。 防灾减灾能力(C)：机场飞行区是飞机地面活动 及停放提供适应飞机特性要求和保证运行安全的构 筑物的统称，包括：跑道及升降带、滑行道、停机 坪、地面标志、灯光助航设施及排水系统等，能较 好的表征一个机场对灾害性天气的防灾减灾能力。 本文把机场的飞行区划等级 3C、4C、4D、4E、4F 划分为 1、2、3、4、5 共五级。飞行区划等级与机 场建筑占地面积 S，分别用 0.5 的权重，计算出中国 174 个机场的防灾减灾能力值。基于
    keywords: arcgis; atlantis; authors; china; copyright; press; rainstorm; risk
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        item: #42 of 280
          id: jracr-148
      author: Hanping Zhao; Huiyan Ding; Han Wang
       title: Agent-Based Simulation of Fish Boats Evacuation
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2085
      flesch: 84
     summary: R 内渔船的是否回港决策。 决策 内容 渔船根据外部环境和政府信息，做出是否回港和港口选择的决策。具体决策准则在 1.2.3.小节阐述 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 155 表 4 给出了渔船根据当前所处位置的台风风力 Wi 决定回港的概率 Pbi。如表中带下画线的数字表 示，当渔船所处位置的风力为 8 级时，风险厌恶型 渔船选择回港的概率为 0.1。 除对环境的响应之外，渔船会和政府进行交互。 渔船“是否回港”决策会受到政府 “催促”回港次数 的影响，其回港的概率 Pbi 设定如表 5 所示。如表 中带下划线的数字表示，当政府催促回港 1 次时， 风险厌恶型渔船，选择回港的概率为 0.5。 此外渔船之间也会进行交互，渔船会受到与自 身距离一定范围内的渔船的决策的影响。在影响半 的 18.63%，出现的最大延迟时间为 44 号渔船的 14 小时，计算每只渔船平均的延迟回港时间，该渔船 也具有最大的平均延迟回港时间，为 3.785 小时。 在 200 次仿真中，渔船延迟回港结果的统计表 10 所示： 表 10. 200 次仿真延迟回港结果统计 延迟回港 船只数量 最大延迟 回港时间 所有渔船累积 延迟回港时间 有延迟渔船 200 次仿真平均延迟时间 最大值 527 14 677 3.785 最小值 482 4 577 0.005 平均值 506 8.11 617.125 0.9465 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 158 考察渔船在仿真过程中回港的情况，计算随仿 真时间的推移，回港渔船数量的变化。计算在 200 次仿真中每一时刻已回港渔船的平均值，如图 3 所 示（大型渔船数量见副坐标轴）。 总体来看，本次回港避风中，“延迟回港”的现 象不是很严重，这主要是因为本次台风中心风力已 达 14 级，多数的渔船都认为这是比较严重的状况， 希望自己能够提前到港的时间较宽裕。 3.2.2 催促回港结果 在 200 次仿真过程中，所有的 3500 只渔船，共 有 156 只渔船受到过政府的“催促回港”，占总渔船 数量的 4.46%，出现的最大催促回港次数为 2670 号 渔船的 5 次。在 200 次仿真中，渔船受到催促回港 结果的统计如表 11 所示： 图 3. 仿真过程渔船回港情况
    keywords: atlantis; authors; copyright; evacuation; press; simulation; 风险中性; 风险偏好
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        item: #43 of 280
          id: jracr-149
      author: Yanran Yang;  Lina Jin; Jinbin Li; Chao Fang
       title: Crisis Communication about Nuclear Accidents with Psychological Approaches
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6683
      flesch: 47
     summary: In this paper, we reviewed the cases of risk and crisis communication after three famous nuclear accident (Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and Fukushima) and studied the public risk and crisis communication after nuclear accident with psychological methods, including (1) discussing the source of nuclear panic with needs theory and cognitive theory and (2) studying the Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 5, No. 3 (October 2015), 169-177 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 169 irrational behaviors in nuclear accidents with psychoanalytic theory. Empirical research on nuclear risk communication in tow countries, Health Physics Society.
    keywords: accident; communication; crisis; crisis communication; government; information; media; needs; nuclear; people; public; risk
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        item: #44 of 280
          id: jracr-15
      author: Hu, Haibo; Pan, Jinjun
       title: The Risk Assessment of the Fog Disaster in Beijing
        date: 2021-10-09
       words: 832
      flesch: 83
     summary: 个观测站近 10 年的大雾观测资料，以雾天出现的频 率及频次，测算北京地区雾灾危险性 指数，指数分布图经网格插值计算 后，将指数值赋值予网格单元，计算 出的北京地区雾灾危险性指数分布如 图 1 所示。 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 62 按高速路、国道、省道、一级— — 四级公路等公路等级测算单位网格 内路网密度指数，以此作为雾灾的脆 弱性指标，不同道路类型选用不同的 权重系数，计算出的脆弱性指数如图 3，从图 3 中可见北京地区的雾灾脆弱 性指数强度分布与环城路、出京高速 公路（机场高速、八达岭、京津唐 等）的路线延伸方向一致，这与实际 最可能发生大雾灾害的路段分布情况 基本一致，二环、三环等环城路段的 脆弱性指数较高，与这些路段路网密 集、人多路杂的地物分布情况相吻 合。 图 2 北京地区大雾危险性指数分布图 图 3 北京地区雾灾承灾体脆弱性指数（订 正）网格分布图 通过与“机场”、“车站”等面 或面缓冲区域的叠加对脆弱性分布图 做易损性指数订正，订正结果见图 3 （ 城市大雾；危险性；脆弱性；易损性；风险评估. 1. 引言 城市是经济实体集中分布的地区，加 之城市交通网密集，工矿企业及各种 交通工具大量排放污染气体及尾废 气，致使空气中的烟尘污染物等类似 凝结核物质浓度加大。王继志等 （2002）认为随着城市的发展，城市 排放作用所产生的大气污染物在城市 及周边地区的聚集，加剧雾的生成， 城市雾的强度在逐渐加大 [2] 。“城市 雾”对城市居民生活质量和安全均带 来较大的影响，尤其对城市交通及居 民出行造成不利，甚至出现人员伤亡 事故。例如，2006 年 1 月在京沈高速 公路，就因大雾的原因发生一起 60 余 辆车追尾相撞 2 人死亡，10 余人受伤 的严重交通事故。“雾”被称为天气 杀手，是一种重要的城市气象灾害风 险源。 从现有文献资料来看，有关大雾 灾害风险评估的研究不多。Kanplan 的 气象灾害风险评估三元组理论的基本 要求是“有那些不利的天气条件”、 “出现不利天气条件的可能性”及 “不利天气条件出现后所造成的影 响” [3] ，后两项表明一个概念——灾害 危险性评估，这是风险评估的核心。 一些文献采用多年气象资料分析特定 地区所属特定路段的雾的气候特征， 归纳分析大雾天气的年季、季节、昼 夜等变化特征 [4][5] ，这对揭示雾的规律 性认识是有意的，对风险评估也有借 鉴，但要揭示城市雾灾的真实风险仍 需在此基础上作更深一步的工作。城 市雾灾的风险评估除了要分析雾的气 候统计学特征及规律外，还应着重剖 析城市特殊功能及结构对大雾天气导 致灾难性事故的响应机制，比如，城 市交通路网密度、城市人口密度等指 标所呈现的城市承灾体脆弱性或易损 性分析。分析需要提取城市路网密 度、长度、道路路面空间占有率及城 市人口密度等指标，这些均可在 GIS 的支持下，通过空间网格分割下的空 间叠置计算得到。 本文尝试在空间信息技术支持 下，提取一定大小的网格单元的城市 路网特征参数，按一定权重系数方程 换算路网密度条件下的雾灾脆弱性指 数，并叠加上基于 10 年（1996-2006） 统计资料得出的大雾的危险性及体现 城市人口密度的易损性指数，综合测 算城市雾灾的风险指数。 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 60 2. 方法与步骤 2.1 危险性评估 图 1 城市路网与网格单元划分示意图 在研究区域范围内划分一定大小 的正方形网格单元（图 1）。选用多年 的大雾观测资料，分析大雾的年月际 的变化情况，并根据每个测站的年平 均大雾日数，做出大雾在城市地区的 年平均日数分布图，年平均日数值内 插到每个评估网格单元，每个网格单 元内的年平均日数与最大年平均日数 的比值作为网格区域内可产生雾灾的 危险性指数，归一化指数方程表示为 maxC C D i= 网格 （1） iC 为 该 雾网格内插后的年平均 日 数， maxC 为 雾所有网格的最大年平均 日数。 2.2 脆弱性评价 网格单元面与城市基础地理信息 底图上的交通线路作“空间交”计 算，得到每个网格单元内不同道路类 型的路线长度，以此核算路网密度。 鉴于城市道路类型不一样，其交通拥 堵状况不一，同等强度的大雾对不同 道路类型的交通造成的影响不一样， 也就是雾灾的响应程度不一样，因此 在空间交计算结束后，需要按不同道 路的类型及道路的长度核算“网格正 方形”内包含的路网信息，即可作为 初步的路网密度参数 ∑ = ×= n i ii WLR 1 网格 （2） iL 为网格内道路类型 i 的长度，道路 类型可为“高速路、一级道路”等， iW 为道路类型 i 的权重参数。 最后将单网格路网统计参数 网格 R 进行归一化，即得到每个网格单元的 路网密度系数，这个系数为城市道路 系统响应雾灾的脆弱性指标值，不同 网格的脆弱性指标值的空间分布在 GIS 中是一种空间图谱化结果（图 3）。 2.3 大雾易损性加权订正 雾灾的易损性与城市人口分布指 数（人口密度、人口数量）等相关， 甚至包括对大雾特别敏感的重要设 施，比如机场、港口、车站等的分 布。有关人口分布指数的网格化计算 方法已有成熟的空间离散化计算方 法，其应用方法可参考文献[6][7]，其 中人口分布指数的空间网格与脆弱性 指数的计算网格在空间地理坐标、尺 度大小上是一一对应的（图 3），但对 类似机场等重要设施响应雾灾害的易 损性指数订正时的网格计算，需要在 方法上做出微小的调整。文献[8][9]在 针对重点设施的易损性评价时，是依 据区域的统计方法来核算的，即某个 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 61 区域内的重点设施越多，该区域的易 损性基数就越大。这种方法只适合区 域的易损性指数划分，而 1KM*1KM 小尺度网格区域与这类设施在空间上 可互为叠置（INTERSECT），核算小 尺度网格在空间上包含或交叠的重点 设施，比如包含机场后的易损性指 数，完全可采用空间交运算算出待评 估网格与这类设施的空间相交面积， 然后乘上权重系数，即可得到网格区 域易损性对重点设施的订正结果，即 权重积网格与重点设施相交面网格 RMF ×= （3） 图 3 为脆弱性指数网格图的易损性订 正结果，可看出“机场”及附近区域 在订正后的脆弱性指数明显增强（图 3
    keywords: atlantis; beijing; copyright; fog; press; risk
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        item: #45 of 280
          id: jracr-150
      author: Diego Padilla-Pérez, Jaime Santos-Reyes; Samuel Olmos-Peña
       title: Dealing with Emergencies: The Case of a Heavy Disruption of the Mexico City Metro System
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5080
      flesch: 64
     summary: On the other hand, it has been found that given the nature of interdependencies amongst these systems, when a failure occurs, usually cause cascading failures affecting, inter alia, other systems; e.g. other modes of transportation. ANN models attempt to use some “organizational” principles believed to be used in the human (Jain, et al., 1996).
    keywords: city; fig; line; metro; metro line; mexico; model; number; system; users
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        item: #46 of 280
          id: jracr-151
      author: Xiankui Zeng; Dong Wang; Jichun Wu
       title: Evaluating the Three Methods of Goodness of Fit Test for Frequency Analysis
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5530
      flesch: 60
     summary: Based on the comparison of goodness of fit test methods, following conclusions are demonstrated: (1) Each goodness of fit test has its own advantage and disadvantage. 2 Methods The methods used in this paper include goodness of fit tests, C-S, K-S, A-D tests, parameter estimation for probability distribution function (PDF), and samples generation.
    keywords: analysis; distribution; fit; frequency; goodness; pdf; test; weibull
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        item: #47 of 280
          id: jracr-152
      author: Zhongyu He; Guofang Zhai
       title: Spatial Effect on Public Risk Perception of Natural Disaster: a Comparative Study in East Asia
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4660
      flesch: 49
     summary: By conducting an identical questionnaire survey across three East Asia countries (China, Japan and South Korea), the paper finds out that different country has its unique structure of risk perception. The findings of this paper imply that risk perception to certain extent relates with existing risk, however, the latter is not always correctly perceived.
    keywords: coast; distance; japanese; line; perception; public; risk; risk perception; survey; tsunami
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        item: #48 of 280
          id: jracr-153
      author: Nidhi Tiwari; S. B. Singh
       title: Analysis of a Risky Two Unit System under Marked Process Incorporating Two Repairmen with Vacations
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7161
      flesch: 67
     summary: Gumbel- Hougaard copula and Bivariate Clayton copula reveal that Gumbel-Hougaard copula should be adopted instead of Bivariate Clayton copula for better results. To make a comparison between the measures obtained using two families of copulas Gumbel-Hougaard family and Bivariate Clayton, the model has been solved with the help of Gumbel-Hougaard family of copula and Bivariate Clayton copula both in two different cases.
    keywords: + =; bivariate; clayton; copula; gumbel; hougaard; repair; system
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        item: #49 of 280
          id: jracr-154
      author: Yingying Tian; Chong Xu; Jian Chen
       title: Regional Risk Assessment of Earthquake-triggered Landslides
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4196
      flesch: 71
     summary: Boca Raton: CRC Press, (2013a) 179-184. 吴玲, 基于 GIS 和 RS 什邡市山区地震滑坡主要影响因子 的研究. 兰恒星, 伍法权, 王思敬, 基于 GIS 的滑坡 CF 多元回归模 型及其应用, 山地学报, 20(06) (2002) 732-737.
    keywords: assessment; atlantis; authors; c. xu; china; copyright; earthquake; gis; landslide; press; susceptibility
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        item: #50 of 280
          id: jracr-156
      author: Wei Zhang; Yingjun Hu; Jiazhuo Wang; , Chunyang Zhang
       title: Research on Urban Waterlogging Disaster Risk Assessment Based on ARCGIS and MIKE FLOOD — A Case Study on Shijiazhuang
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2581
      flesch: 66
     summary: Keywords: Waterlogging disaster risk assessment; MIKE FLOOD; ARCGIS; Shijiazhuang City 基于 ARCGIS 和 MIKE FLOOD 的城市内涝风险评估研究 ——以石家庄市为例 张伟*，胡应均，王家卓，张春洋 中国城市规划设计研究院，北京 100037 摘要：本研究基于 MIKE FLOOD 平台，辅以 ARCGIS 插值运算、拓扑检查、栅格计算、统计分析等功能， 分别通过 MIKE21、MIKE In this paper, an urban drainage system model of Shijiazhuang city was built based on the MIKE21, MIKE URBAN and MIKE 11 modules in MIKE FLOOD platform in order to provide a storm sewer drainage capacity and waterlogging risk evaluation.
    keywords: arcgis; atlantis; drainage; flood; mike; model; risk; storm; system; urban; water
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        item: #51 of 280
          id: jracr-157
      author: Veronica Strandh
       title: Sweden’s Capacity to Prepare and Respond to a Terrorist Attack on Rail-Bound Traffic – Promising Practices and Obstacles to Inter-Organizational Collaboration
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8950
      flesch: 42
     summary: Sweden provides the empirical focus, by examining current preparedness processes, this article offers an important perspective on inter-organizational collaboration; that is, the perspective of the involved actors themselves. Promising practices and obstacles to inter-organizational collaboration are identified and analyzed.
    keywords: actions; actors; attack; collaboration; coordination; crisis; management; networks; preparedness; rail; resources; response; scenario; stockholm; sweden; terrorist; traffic
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        item: #52 of 280
          id: jracr-158
      author: Mei Hong; Dong Wang; Wenhua Zeng; Chenchen Ma; Liang Zhao
       title: The Variable Characteristics and Response to Climatic Factors of the Runoff in the Downstream Areas of the Yellow River under the Background of Global Change
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2187
      flesch: 65
     summary: (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing. Atlantis Press Journal style Received 25 June 2015 Accepted 15 November 2015 The Variable Characteristics and Response to Climatic Factors of the Runoff in the Downstream Areas of the Yellow River under the Background of Global Change Mei Hong1,∗, Dong Wang2, Wenhua Zeng1, Chenchen Ma3, Liang Zhao1 1Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, China 2Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, China 3Lianyungang Meteorological Bureau, Lianyungang 222006, China Abstract In this paper, the runoff of Huayuankou and Lijin Hydrologic Stations of the downstream areas of the Yellow River from 1951 to 2012 were calculated and analyzed in order to explore the runoff variable characteristics and their response to climatic factors.
    keywords: areas; atlantis; press; river; runoff; yellow
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        item: #53 of 280
          id: jracr-159
      author:  Malla, Shrijan; Hasegawa, Shuichi;  Dahal,  Ranjan
       title: Corrigendum to “Competency of the Infantry Troops of the Nepalese Army in Disaster Response”
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1327
      flesch: 50
     summary: It is true that following the essence of national policies and guidelines (MoHA, 2017; Nepalese Army, 2017) the organization has credibly invested to train its infan- try troops in disaster response training like Collapsed Structure Search and Rescue Training, Medical First Responders Training, Dead Body Management Training, Deep Water Rescue Training, and Sphere Training (Nepalese Army, 2017). But in contrary to this urgency, disaster response preparedness of those regular infantry troops has remained in shadow.
    keywords: disaster; response; training; troops
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        item: #54 of 280
          id: jracr-16
      author: Zhuo, Yi; Liu, Guixiang; Yu, Fengming
       title: The Combustible Materials Remote Sensing Ration Calculation and Fire Risk Dynamic Monitor in the Seasons of Withered Grass in Xilingoule Grassland
        date: 2021-10-09
       words: 1927
      flesch: 81
     summary: 4. 结论与讨论 枯黄牧草作为枯草季节可燃物的主体，实现动态 监测对草原火灾的风险管理有个重要的意义。本文 在地面实测数据的支持下，获得了锡林郭勒盟地区 不同类型草地的可燃物逐月的动态变化率。结果表 明枯草季草原火灾可燃物的存量程逐月递减趋势， 其中草甸草原月平均变化率为13.27%；典型草原与 荒漠草原动态变化程两个阶段，第一阶段为10月份 到12月份，第二阶段为后四个月，典型草原地区的 可燃物动态变化的第一阶段可燃物变化率的降低速 度较快，月平均递减率为28.66%；第二阶段平均月 递减率仅为7.03%，荒漠草原地区的可燃物动态变化 的第一阶段可燃物变化率月平均递减率为32.25%； 第二阶段平均月递减率仅为8%。 锡林郭勒盟草原牧区的可燃物的月动态遥感监测 结果表明在空间分布上，锡林郭勒盟草原牧区的可 燃物存量为从东北向西南递减分布，可燃物存量最 高值出现在东乌珠穆沁旗东北的林缘草甸地区；最 低值出现在苏尼特右旗北部以及二连浩特地区。时 间分布上，可燃物的存量程逐月递减趋势，草甸草 原枯草季在期间的变化幅度最大，典型草原次之。 荒漠草原可燃物变化幅度最小。 火险等级面积比在枯草季不同时期火险程度不 同。初期火险等级分布以中低、中高为主，分别占 全锡盟总面积比为39.3%、38.0%。；中期，以中低 火险区为主，中高火险、高火险区次之，面积比分 别为61.1%、21.0%和16.2%；末期以低火险区分布 最多，占全盟总面积56.7%，中低火险区面积次，所 占之面积比34.3%。 应用成熟的产草量遥感反演模型反演生长季后 期的产草量，结合植被的干湿比例数据可以获得枯 草季节初始的可燃物存量，再根据可燃物在枯草季 节存量的动态变化率，可以估算出枯草季节可燃物 的动态变化，这种方法绕过了常用遥感数据对枯黄 牧草监测能力有限的瓶颈，实现了原草区枯草季节 可燃物存量的大面积、快速的动态监测。这一方法 反演的精度主要取决于生长季产草量遥感模型的精 度，在实际应用中可以根据不同的研究区域选取更 适合当地的产草量模型，从而提高监测的精度。依 据气象数据与多种地表数据的建立的多因子火险指 数，立体的表达了地表可燃物致灾的危险程度。如 果进一步使用长时间序列记录的草原火灾数据，计 算火灾发生频度，然后与火险指数相进行统计分析 获具有明确统计学意义的火险等级划分方案，则能 使本文的监测方法实用性得到进一步提高。 参考文献 1. 裴浩，李云鹏，范一大，利用气象卫星 和 42.68%，可燃物变化率的降低速度较快，月平均递 减率为28.66%；第二阶段为后四个月，可燃物变化 率从33.95%减到14.76%，四个月变化率的降低幅度 为28.12%，平均月递减率仅为7.03%。 表格 5 典型草原可燃物月动态 Table 5 Combustible materials dynamic of steppe 调查时间 （年/月） 可燃物存量 均值（g/㎡） 变化率 （%） 2007/10 73.91 100.00 2007/11 50.55 68.39 2007/12 31.55 42.68 2008/01 25.10 33.95 2008/02 18.57 25.12 2008/03 13.50 18.27 2008/04 10.91 14.76 荒漠草原属温性荒漠草原类平原丘陵荒漠草原亚 类，主要群系为戈壁针茅草原群系、多根葱草原群 系和小叶锦鸡儿草原群系。如表4所示，荒漠草原可 燃物变化率与典型草原率变化趋势类似。荒漠草原 10月份的可燃物存量平均为51.85g/m2，荒漠草原可 燃物存量的递减趋势分为两个阶段，第一阶段为10 月份到12月份，两个月的减少幅度为64.69%，平均 月递减率为32.25%；第二阶段为后四个月，变化率 分别为22.55%、16.17%、6.84%和3.32%，四个月降 低幅度为31.99%，平均月递减率为8.00%。 表格 6 荒漠草原可燃物月动态 Table 6 Combustible materials dynamic of desert steppe 调查时间 （年/月） 可燃物存量 均值（g/㎡） 变化率 （%） 2007/10 51.85 100.00 2007/11 32.38
    keywords: atlantis; authors; copyright; materials; spi; steppe
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        item: #55 of 280
          id: jracr-160
      author: Wu, Chengkuang; Chuang, YuMin
       title: Game Theoretic Strategies for Supplier Capability Assessment and Manufacturing Order Allocation
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7952
      flesch: 54
     summary: Supplier allocation for the manufacturing process is based on the concept of the majority of SPVs. Their study showed product qual- ity, delivery, and past performance history to be critical factors in supplier selection.
    keywords: allocation; game; manufacturer; manufacturing; manufacturing process; model; payoff; performance; process; selection; shapley; supplier; value
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        item: #56 of 280
          id: jracr-162
      author: Zhenhua Guo
       title: Economic Fluctuations and Insurance Industry Crisis: the History, Status Quo and the Future
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1935
      flesch: 67
     summary: (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing. Received 11 December 2015 Accepted 15 February 2016 Economic Fluctuations and Insurance Industry Crisis: the History, Status Quo and the Future Zhenhua Guo School of Finance, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, Shanghai 201620, China Abstract The healthy development of insurance industry influenced the stability of country's financial system.
    keywords: authors; crisis; fluctuations; industry; insurance; zhenhua; 数据整理; 数据来源：wind
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        item: #57 of 280
          id: jracr-163
      author: Dengfeng Liu; Dong Wang;  Yuankun Wang
       title: Eutrophication Hazard Evaluation Using Copula-Cloud
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2562
      flesch: 65
     summary: C-C 模型评价 C-C 建模的基本框架是：首先根据既定富营养 化风险指标体系生成各个指标下云模型，再通过各 实测水质数据的相依性构造 Gaussian copula 函 数 ， 最 后 由 copula 函 数 联 接 各 个 云 得 到 多 维 copula-云模型 C-C 模型构建与评价的具体实现步骤如下： 步骤1 确定富营养化指标体系。本文参考文献 结论 本文针对风险评价中的不确定性（随机性、模 糊性）以及多指标映射问题，引入云模型和 copula 多元分析理论，提出了一种简化的 C-HC 富营养化 评价模型。首先，云模型刻画了富营养化评价中的 模糊性和随机性，半云发生器的引入使得一个指标 下的富营养化概念只需要一个云模型与之对应，简 化了云模型的研建；其次，copula 函数刻画了不同 评价指标间的相依特性，通过 copula 函数连接各指 标下的云模型即可得到多维 copula-云评价模型。实 例证明 C-HC 模型评价结果直观有效，该模型亦可 应用于其他相关风险评价领域。 Copula 函数理论与云模型的耦合是一个崭新的 研究方 向， 本文 以 Gaussian copula 为例 探讨了 copula-云耦合建模在水体富营养化风险评价中的适 用性。对于 copula 函数类型、云模型映射模式等方 面的研究值得进一步开展。 致谢 资助项目：教育部博士点基金(20120091110026, 20100091120059)、江苏省教育厅青蓝工程。 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 13 Dengfeng Liu et.al.
    keywords: cloud; copula; eutrophication; evaluation; liu; model; vi vi; water
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        item: #58 of 280
          id: jracr-164
      author: Wei Zhu; Qiuju You
       title: High-rise Building Group Regional Fire Risk Assessment Model Based on AHP
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3674
      flesch: 62
     summary: Keywords: High rise building, Fire, Risk assessment, AHP 1. Sun et al.(Sun & Luo, 2014) has madea case study for a super high-rise building to expatiate the procedure and methodology of fire risk assessment for super high-rise buildings.
    keywords: assessment; building; factors; fire; group; model; rise; risk
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        item: #59 of 280
          id: jracr-165
      author: Hong-Mei Zhang;  Ya-Zhong Chen; Zhe Wang
       title: Research on the performance evaluation of government venture capital fund based on factor analysis and DEA model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4614
      flesch: 47
     summary: Also, the guide fund acts as a financial product, which plays the function of financial funds to control the market through investment funds to enterprises to produce economic benefit, and the fund needs to keep its value for the long-term operation. Received 8 January 2016 Accepted 27 February 2016 Research on the performance evaluation of government venture capital fund based on factor analysis and DEA model Hong-Mei Zhang1,2,3, Ya-Zhong Chen1,2,3,Zhe Wang1,2,3 1Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guizhou Institution for Technology Innovation & Entrepreneurship Investment, Guiyang Guizhou 550025, China 2Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guizhou Institute for Urban Economics and Development, Guiyang Guizhou 550025,China 3Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, School of Finance, Guiyang Guizhou 550025, China Abstract According to the existing domestic and foreign research results as well as the characteristics of the guide fund, this paper constructs the index system of guide fund performance evaluation, selects the data of the part of the enterprises shared by the government guide venture capital fund and uses the factor analysis method to optimize the evaluation model, then uses empirical analysis based on DEA-BCC model.
    keywords: analysis; capital; evaluation; factor; fund; government; guide fund; index; investment; performance; performance evaluation; venture
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        item: #60 of 280
          id: jracr-166
      author: Tiezhong Liu; Hubo Zhang; Xiaowei Li;  Huiru Li
       title: The Effects of the Social Context on Pre-Decisional Processes of Protective Action in Beijing Communities
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6631
      flesch: 51
     summary: First, media communication activities can influence individual reception of risk information, which influence is the strongest among social context variables; moreover education attainment and age can influence it significantly. 3. Results 3.1 Interactions between social context variables In order to discuss the interactions between social context variables, sixteen competing models were designed with the combinations of “FKN, FFC, and MC”.
    keywords: action; beijing; communication; context; data; disaster; face; influence; information; media; model; pre; processes; risk; social; variables
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        item: #61 of 280
          id: jracr-167
      author: Qiuying Ding; Zhan Tian; Dongli Fan; Laixiang Sun; Guenther Fischer
       title: A Study of the Impact on Soybean Potential under Climate Change
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2375
      flesch: 67
     summary: AEZ 模型的验证 根据大豆观测数据扩充 AEZ 模型的大豆品种 库，同时结合大豆的观测数据进行对比，调整大品 种系数。此外根据大豆的观测数据的空间分布，基 于生态系统类型调整 AEZ 模型的算法，形成适应于 我国大豆生产的 AEZ 模型版本。以此建立跨尺度模 拟的中国大豆评估模型 China-AEZ[14]，综合评估未 来气候变化影响下我国大豆生产潜力的变化。 （1）AEZ 模型验证 在 AEZ 模型中，生育期长度是品种的一个关键 属性，首先对比原 AEZ 模型得到的生育期分布图与 实际观测值进行比较，验证原始 AEZ 模型对我国大 豆的模拟能力。在 AEZ 模型中，生育期作为 LUT 的 一个重要属性，根据大豆普遍生育期长度，以 模拟得到的我国大豆主产区集中 在东北平原、华北平原、长江中下游平原以及四川 盆地等地势较为平坦的地区。模型模拟的结果与我 国大豆主产区有很好的一致性，历史相关资料表明 我国大豆主产区包括北方春大豆（包括东北地区、 黄土高原、西北地区）、黄淮海夏大豆（包括晋冀 中部、黄淮海流域）、长江流域春夏大豆（包括长 江流域、云贵高原）、东南春夏秋大豆（浙江、福 建、江西、台湾、湖南、广东、广西大部）以及华 南四季大豆（广东、广西、云南和福建南部）。图 2 模拟 1990s 大豆生产潜力分布：其中大豆生产潜力最 大的区域位于东北省境内，很多区域在 4000kg/ha 以 上，这与该区属于一熟制，大豆生育期较长有关， 模拟的大豆生产潜力与观测的大豆生产潜力较为相 近，特别是黑龙江省的德都、巴彦站点附近区域大 豆生产潜力处于极高水平；华北平原的山东、河北、 河南部分区域大豆生产潜力接近 4000kg/ha，而实际 观测中河北的黄骅、河南的国营大豆生产潜力也高 于 4000kg/ha；虽然南方水热资源丰富，但改进后的 AEZ 模型对品种的选择受区域内熟制分布的限制， 考虑多熟制轮作的影响，因而不能充分利用气候资 源，大豆生产潜力不如东北地区高，在 3000kg/ha 左 右，与观测的站点（安徽的蒙城、寿县，江西的龙 南、南康、泰和以及湖北的怀化）的大豆生产潜力 相近。以上结果表明改进后的 AEZ 模型模拟得到的 大豆生产潜力空间分布能够较好的反映我国观测种 植大豆生产潜力情况，AEZ 对我国大豆生产具有较 好的模拟能力。 图 3 结果表明：到 2050s 未来气候变化下，在使 用最优播期和限制性的适宜品种的情况下，总体上 气候变化对大豆生产的影响呈现北增南减的趋势， 东北以及华北部分地区受全球变暖的影响，冻害、 大雪等低温灾害发生频率减少，有相当一部分地区 大豆增产 500kg/ha 以上，且黑龙江、内蒙古以及河 北省部分地区增产幅度在 1000kg/ha，仅有黑龙江西 部以及辽宁中部地区有小幅减产，均少于 250 kg/ha； 华北、华中南部以及南方大部分地区呈现减产趋势， 主要原因是华北地区处于熟制交界地带，气候变暖 下该区熟制增加，缩短了大豆适宜生育期长度的选 择，导致大豆减产；而华中南部以及南方地区可能 是由于该区热量资源本身较为丰富，加上气候变暖， 高温热浪的灾害增加，不利于作物生长，导致大豆 生育期缩短，从而导致大豆减产，但是大部分地区 减产幅度较小，均低于 500 kg/ha；山东、河北、河 南以及安徽、江苏北部等处于熟制过度地带，大豆 生育期长度变化较大，大豆减产趋势较为明显，高 于 500 kg/ha。 3.2.
    keywords: aez; change; china; climate; copyright; impact; potential; press; soybean; study
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        item: #62 of 280
          id: jracr-168
      author: Minyan Li; Deyin Huang; Qian Zhang; Mao Liu
       title: Application of Risk Estimation of Noise-induced Hearing Loss Method in Evaluations of Occupational Disease Hazards in Construction Projects in China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5727
      flesch: 56
     summary: B.2 and B.3 represent populations who have not been exposed to occupational noise, while subjects with occupational noise exposure are included in B.4. (3) Hearing loss of different frequencies It shows that the hearing threshold level of 4000 Hz is the maximum of H’50 and N50, the curve of audiogram shows a V shape, and H’50 and N50 of every frequency both increase with the duration on the condition of fixed initial exposure age and exposure noise level (Table 5, Fig. 3 and Table 6, Fig. 4 ).
    keywords: age; exposure; hearing; hearing loss; line; loss; noise; noise exposure; occupational; risk
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        item: #63 of 280
          id: jracr-169
      author: Madhuri; H. R. Tewari; P. K. Bhowmick
       title: Living with Flood: A Livelihood Resilience Approach of Rural People in Bihar, India
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 12671
      flesch: 50
     summary: In the study of hurricane and storm risk by Peacock et al. (2005), the experience and damage of flood led to enhancement of risk perception resulting in improved precautionary actions (Lindell and Perry, 2000) to mitigate flood risk (Mileti, 1999). The way households perceive flood risk and resulting damages determine households’ responses to and management of flood risk (Harvatt et al., 2011).
    keywords: analysis; approach; bihar; disaster; et al; factor; flood; flood education; flood experience; flood preparedness; flood risk; households; india; livelihood resilience; measures; model; people; perception; press; risk; risk perception; rural; study; table
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        item: #64 of 280
          id: jracr-17
      author: Ayyub, Bilal; Kearney, Michael
       title: Towards the Development of Regional Risk Profiles and Adaptation Measures for Sea Level Rise
        date: 2021-10-09
       words: 9773
      flesch: 53
     summary: An increase in the global trend is likely, and this increase will be of the order of two to two-and- a-half times what occurred in the 20th century, historically a period of the highest rate of sea level rise in the last thousand years (Kearney 2008). The state of coastal science and engineering back then, regarding wave generation and dynamics, the loads that waves could impose on coastal structures, and the relations of shore processes to sea level rise, even they realized sea levels were rising, was primitive.
    keywords: analysis; ayyub; coastal; cost; data; engineering; hazard; ipcc; level; level rise; press; probability; profile; rate; rise; risk; sea; sea level; storm; time; wave
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        item: #65 of 280
          id: jracr-170
      author: Bin Zhu; Zeshui Xu
       title: Overview on the Developments and Applications of Hesitant Fuzzy Sets: An Uncertain Decision Making Tool
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6844
      flesch: 52
     summary: xuzeshui@263.net Abstract Recently, hesitant fuzzy sets perform as an emerging tool in decision making under uncertainty. This paper reviews the main relevant papers, which are published in international academic journals from 2010 to 2016, relating to the interpretations, modellings, and applications of hesitant fuzzy sets.
    keywords: decision; fuzzy; hesitant; hfss; information; journal; making; operators; sets; systems; zhu
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        item: #66 of 280
          id: jracr-171
      author: Hao Yu
       title: Study on Performance Evaluation of Government Comprehensive Supervision for Safety Production Based on Balanced Score Card --- A Case Study in Shandong Province, China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5234
      flesch: 31
     summary: The comprehensive statistical results of performance evaluation indicator system of safety production supervision for local government Table 4. The framework of performance evaluation indicator system of work safety regulation for the local government 2.1.
    keywords: evaluation; evaluation indicator; government; indicator; level; performance; performance evaluation; production; regulation; safety; supervision; system; type
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        item: #67 of 280
          id: jracr-172
      author: Xiaodong Wang
       title: The Analysis on the Effecting Factor of Drought Disease in Qingyang, Gansu
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1844
      flesch: 63
     summary: (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing. Key Words: Global warming, Precipitation change, Drought disease, El-nino, La-nina, Qingyang 甘肃庆阳地区旱灾发生的气候影响因素分析 王晓冬 内蒙古科技大学矿业与煤炭学院，包头 014010, 中国 摘要：近年来，全球气候变暖已经成为不争的事实，针对气候变暖所带来影响的讨论成 为一个热点。本文通过分析上世纪中期至本世纪初的 50 年间甘肃庆阳地区的气温、降水变化 趋势及厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜事件与干旱气候的关系，试图探讨全球气候变化下本区干旱的情况及 其产生原因，为减轻本区由此产生贫困的问题提供理论依据。分析认为：甘肃庆阳地区干旱情 况有越来越严重的趋势，本区降水与气温存在着明显的负相关性。这说明气温的升高是干旱发 生的主要因素之一，厄尔尼诺及拉尼娜事件与干旱的发生也有一定的关系。 关键词：全球气候变暖; 降水变化; 干旱；厄尔尼诺；拉尼娜； 庆阳地区 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 6, No. 2 (July 2016), 103-108 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 103 X.D. Wang /
    keywords: change; disease; drought; precipitation; qing; region; yang
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        item: #68 of 280
          id: jracr-173
      author: Yanjun Zhou; Chengyu Yan; Yanjiang Li
       title: A Case Study of the Severe Convective in Bohai Sea and the Establishment of Early Warning Index on the Sightseeing Boat
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2189
      flesch: 68
     summary: The ocean observatory of Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao 066000，China Abstract Using the synchronous data such as weather radar, oceanic WRF model etc., a severe convective weather process has been analyzed on August 31, 2015 in Bohai Sea area, China. (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing.
    keywords: bohai; convective; sea; wrf; zhou
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        item: #69 of 280
          id: jracr-174
      author: Meiling He; Shutao Qing; Jianming Mo; Xiang Gao
       title: Connection Parameters of Heavy-tailed Operational Risk Measurement Model and Management Model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7841
      flesch: 50
     summary: Therefore, the framework of operational risk management is still in the process of improving and burgeoning. Consequently, the parameter which has greatest effect on )(αOpVaR is the key management indicator for operational risk management.
    keywords: > ∂; e w; parameter; risk; w ξ; w ∂; μ ∂; ξ e; ξ ∂; ∂ >; ∂ ∂; ∂ ≥; ≥ ∂
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        item: #70 of 280
          id: jracr-175
      author: Christian Kalbassi
       title: Identifying Crisis Threats: A Partial Synthesis of the Literature on Crisis Threat Assessment with Relevance to Public Administrations
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8734
      flesch: 40
     summary: Kalbassi / Identifying Crisis Threats phenomena of crises has become the focus of the recent literature, which can be divided into four dimensions that are relevant to crisis threat assessment in public administrations: crisis threats to a system/society, the quality of information for crisis threat assessment, political-administrative challenges, and the assertiveness of a crisis management team. To address these new circumstances, crisis management scholars require analytical methods and frameworks that are better adapted for crisis threats (Boin and McConnell, 2007; Doktor, 2007; Enander, Lajksjö and Tedfeldt, 2010; Gundel, 2005; Kouzmin, 2008; Lalonde, 2007; Quarantelli, 2001; Robert and Lajtha, 2002; Rosenthal, Boin and Comfort, 2001; Roux-Dufort, 2007; Topper and Lagadec, 2013).
    keywords: administrations; boin; contingencies; crisis; crisis management; crisis threat; field; information; journal; literature; press; public; research; risk; threat assessment; threat variables; threats; variables
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        item: #71 of 280
          id: jracr-176
      author: Lakshay; Amit Agarwal; Nomesh B. Bolia
       title: Route Guidance Map for Emergency Evacuation
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6476
      flesch: 54
     summary: Abdelghany, Abdelghany, & Mahmassani (2014) Microscopic Show that evacuation time reduces significantly by optimizing the temporal distribution of evacuation and exit gate selection. • Scenario 3: (Benchmark Evacuation with encroachment): In this scenario, evacuation time is identified based on Nash equilibrium (Lämmel, Rieser, & Nagel, 2008).
    keywords: agents; area; emergency; evacuation; evacuation time; exit; map; market; plan; route; scenario; simulation; study; time
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        item: #72 of 280
          id: jracr-179
      author: Yan Liu; Cong Tan; Dongliang Liu
       title: CFD Analysis of Oxygen and Carbon Dioxide Recovery during Ventilation in Municipal Confined Space
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5486
      flesch: 54
     summary: In this paper, the process of forced ventilation in heating confined space is simulated using CFD method. Geometric model of heating confined space.
    keywords: carbon; chamber; content; dioxide; distribution; flow; oxygen; oxygen content; space; temperature; time; tunnel; ventilation
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        item: #73 of 280
          id: jracr-18
      author: Anping Pan; Anping Pan
       title: A Study on Residents’ Risk Perception in Abrupt Geological Hazard*
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6396
      flesch: 53
     summary: Geological hazard risk Once a hazardous condition is recognized it must be evaluated to determine the threat or risk it presents. There is growing scientific evidence that risks due to geological disasters have become increasingly, especially in mountainous regions.
    keywords: county; disaster; education; hazard; information; life; people; perception; residents; respondents; risk; study; years
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        item: #74 of 280
          id: jracr-180
      author: Mingkong Zhang; Xiaobing Hu;  Jianqin Liao
       title: Path Optimization in Dynamic Adverse Weathers
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3167
      flesch: 70
     summary: Path Optimization in Dynamic Adverse Weathers 图 4. DPO 和 CEPO 结果仿真结果图  表 1 和表 2 就 CT 而言，CEPO 拥有和 DPO 相 似的计算效率。值得注意的是，CEPO 的 CT 是某个起点终点对下采用 CEPO 方法离线优化 所用的时间，而 DPO 定已知天气变化的动态规律，如何通过一次性的离线优化就能使实际旅行路径达到理论最优？为此，本文提出 了协同进化路径优化（Co-Evolutionary Path Optimization，CEPO）概念，它要求：在一次性的离线路径优化计 算中充分考虑天气的动态变化过程。目前已有的 DPO 方法很难解决 CEPO 问题，因为在 DPO 的每次在线优化 计算中，未来的天气变化情况并没有被考虑。本文提出了一种涟漪扩散算法（Ripple-Spreading Algorithm， RSA），通过一次性的离线优化就能找到动态变化天气情况下的最优实际旅行路径，从而解决 CEPO 问题。为 了验证 CEPO 和 RSA，本文以中国海南岛路网为背景，模拟海南岛台风登陆的动态过程，并在这种动态天气情 况下进行路径优化仿真实验。实验结果证明：本文所提出的基于 RSA 的 CEPO 方法较传统的 DPO 方法，不论 在计算时效还是在求解效果上，都更具优势。 关键词： 协同进化路径优化；动态路径优化；极端天气；涟漪扩散算法；台风 1. 前言 日常出行中的路径规划通常都需要考虑天气情 况。如果旅途中遇到恶劣天气，那么，不仅我们出 行的舒适性会受到影响（例如，极端天气造成的交 通拥堵）[1]-[2]，我们出行的安全性也会受到威胁 （例如，台风、龙卷风、暴风雨和暴风雪经常会引 起致命的交通事故）[3]-[4]，所以，在极端天气情 况下进行路径优化具有重要的现实意义。优化路径 一方面可以避开受极端天气影响的区域或道路，降 低气象灾害风险[5]，增加旅行的舒适性和安全性， 提高面对气象灾害时，降低应急时承灾体的脆弱性 [6]。另一方面也可以降低相关旅行成本。在一般的 路径优化问题中，旅行成本可以用距离、油耗和路 桥费等指标来衡量，然而，在极端天气情况下，旅 行时间通常会被作为优先考虑的指标，因为在极端 天气情况下，安全问题是重中之重，对于旅行者而 言，如何以最短的时间安全完成旅行任务才是最重 要的。而且，旅行时间最小化在自然灾害疏散、救 援和应急管理中也具有重要地位[7]。许多自然灾害 通常会伴随有极端天气情况发生（例如，灾难性的 地震之后很可能会伴随暴风雨）[8]。最小化旅行时 间就意味着尽可能缩短暴露在极端天气情况下的时 间，从而降低受灾风险。所以，在减灾和风险管理 研究领域中，极端天气情况下的路径优化问题具有 重要的研究价值[9]-[10]。 显然，极端天气情况下的旅行是一个动态路径 优化问题。例如，当台风中心随时间移动时，其经 过的区域就会有暴风雨，暴风雨将导致该区域的通 行条件恶化，只有等暴风雨过境后才能恢复有效通 行，从而在一定时间内对旅行造成影响。其实，动 态路径优化问题并不是一个新问题，国内外的学者 已经提出了很多求解方法。例如，文献[11]-[14]研 究了针对单一路网改变的动态路径优化问题；文献 [14]-[17]则研究了针对一系列路网改变的路径优化 问题。在文献[11]和[17]的方法中，基本上，原始 路网一旦有任何改变，优化算法就需要在线重新计 算以确定新的最优路径。事实上，每次在线路径优 化计算所求解的是一个基于当前路网的静态路径优 化问题（Static Path Optimization，SPO），因为单 次在线路径优化计算中所使用的路网都是静止不变 的。由于受在线计算时间的限制，文献[11]-[14]中 的动态路径优化方法的关注重点是：能否不进行完 全的重新计算，而是结合当前路网对以前的优化路 径进行恰当的改进就达到优化的效果？换句话说， 文献[11]-[14]中的动态路径优化方法强调在每次路 网发生改变时求解新 SPO 的速度。在线求解 SPO 的结果对于当前路网来说可能是最优的，但是在实 际旅行中，不断重复在线求解 SPO 所走出的实际 旅行路径，对于给定的路网动态变化规律而言，很 难保证最优性。图 1 展示了 DPO 的求解过程，以 及 DPO 所导致的实际旅行路径与理论最优的实际 旅行路径之间的差异。事实上，DPO 方法不能得 到理论最优的实际旅行路径，其主要原因是忽略了 路网未来变化的可预测性。在 DPO 的单次在线路 径优化计算中，动态变化的路网被简化成当前时刻 的路网（静态路网），因而单次在线路径优化的结 果对于未来的路网而言，一般很难是最优的。 图 1. 动态路径优化（DPO）不能实现最优实际旅行路径 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 198 M.K. Zhang et al. /
    keywords: atlantis; authors; beijing; cepo; china; copyright; dpo; optimization; path; press; rsa; weather
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        item: #75 of 280
          id: jracr-181
      author: Zhihai Shang; Liping Li
       title: Public Risk Perception and Risk Communication of Typhoon Disaster
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2091
      flesch: 62
     summary: Keywords: risk perception; risk communication; typhoon disaster 公众台风灾害风险认知与风险沟通探讨 尚志海，李丽苹 岭南师范学院地理系，广东 湛江 524048 摘 要：公众灾害风险认知是自然灾害风险沟通的基础，风险沟通又强烈地影响着风险认知。以台风灾害 为例，首先构建了自然灾害风险认知影响因素的理论体系，从风险信息的输入、输出和传播三个方面，提 出公众个体属性、风险情景特征及风险沟通效率 3 个维度的 12 个影响因素。接着，将灾害风险认知影响因 素的理论应用于湛江市台风灾害实践中加以检验，研究结果验证了理论的可靠性。最后，提出有效风险沟 通是提升公众风险认知能力的唯一路径，通过政府风险沟通能力、风险沟通专门平台和风险沟通文化环境 建设来实现有效风险沟通。 关键词：风险认知；风险沟通；台风灾害 《2015~2030 年仙台减少灾害风险框架》提出， 为实现仙台框架的预期成果和目标，第一个优先领 域是理解灾害风险，其中就包括风险沟通与交流 [1] 。 自然灾害风险沟通是灾害风险利益相关者之间的交 流工具，风险沟通的基础是了解公众风险认知 [2,3] 。 以往的经验显示，无论风险评估技术和结果多精细， 它本身也不大可能引发公众主动参与减灾行动 [4] 。 一般来说，高水平的风险认知才会激发人们采取风 险管理措施 [5,6] 。自然灾害风险沟通对公众风险认知 有着直接的影响，风险沟通方式不当，很容易导致 公众产生认知上的偏差 [7] 。 从 20 世纪 60 年代开始，西方学者就进行了灾 害风险认知研究 [11] ，探讨了公众风险认知的影响因 素 Finally, the contents of typhoon disaster risk perception capacity construction were given in this paper as risk communication capacity building, special platform construction and cultural environment of risk communication, which is the only way for effective risk communication.
    keywords: atlantis; authors; communication; copyright; disaster; perception; risk; shang; typhoon
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        item: #76 of 280
          id: jracr-183
      author: Qiaofeng Zhang; Hongbo Yu; Guixiang Liu; Yuhai Bao
       title: The Response Characteristics of Xilingol Grassland to Uneven Distribution of Precipitation at Temporal and Spatial Scale
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1570
      flesch: 52
     summary: Keywords: Precipitation, NDVI, Spatial and temporal distribution, Correlation. 1,2,3,4, 1,3, 2, 1,3 1. 010022 2. 010010 3. 010022 4. 010022 : 15 MODIS MOD13A3 NDVI Pearson NDVI 5~7 NDVI Fig.3 Correlation coefficient between mean NDVI of growing season and monthly precipitation 5~9 NDVI 4 NDVI 0 - - 4 3 8 8 2 1 4 3 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 210 Q.F. Zhang / The Response Characteristics of Xilingol Grassland 4. Fig.4 Pearson correlation coefficient between NDVI of growing seasonand cumulative precipitation 4.
    keywords: 5~9; correlation; ndvi; precipitation
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        item: #77 of 280
          id: jracr-184
      author: Lv, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Mu
       title: Influencing Factors of Equity Financing Efficiency of the Listed Companies in Strategic Emerging Industry Based on Baidu Index
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2645
      flesch: 74
     summary: com)。大数据百度PC搜索指数、大数据百度移动搜索指数是 以“大数据”为关键词的百度搜索指数，反映了某一地区大 数据产业的影响力。本文的百度搜索指数以战略性新兴产业7 个子产业，即节能环保、信息、生物、高端装备制造、新能 源、新材料、新能源汽车为搜索标的，借以反应7个子产业的 影响力以及被关注热度，从关注度上研究其对股权融资效率 的影响。由于采用百度搜索指数研究其对股权融资效率的文 章比较少，所以在本文中认为该指标会对战略性新兴产业上 市公司股权融资效率产生影响。综上做出假设H1。 H2：应收账款周转率与战略性新兴产业上市公司股权融资效 率之间呈正相关关系。 应收账款周转率是应收账款与收入之比，反应应收账款的回 款速度。现金流对于企业而言是核心支撑，应收账款周转越 快，企业收回款项的压力越小，现金流越健康，若应收账款 一直无法回收，企业现金流压力大，导致经营发展受到阻 132 Z.-y. Lü and M. Zhang / Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response 10(4) 130–137 碍，势必会对股权融资效率产生一定的影响。同时国内学者 对于应收账款的相关研究中也表示出该指标的重要性，如时 艳娇（2010）[14]提出了应收账款的回款速度会影响企业的 竞争力。李高雅（2016）[15]通过对我国上市公司应收账款 与利润相关性进行实证分析后发现应收账款对于上市公司利 润有较强的影响。综上做出假设H2。 H3：净利润增长率与战略性新兴产业上市公司股权融资效率 之间呈正相关关系。 对于财务指标中的净利润增长率，该指标反映了企业的利润 增长状况。该指标是投资时的重要参考指标。通常该指标越 大，企业越具有成长性，经营水平越高，投资者对企业未来 的发展具有良好的预期，企业的股权融资效率会相应提高。 国内学者对净利润增长率指标的研究中同样表明了这种趋 势，如阮孝麟（2013）[16]研究创业板上市公司的融资效率 时发现净利润增长率对股权融资效率有正向影响，并且对于 处于成长中的企业，其净利润增长率表现不稳定，但总体趋 势向上；发展成熟后，净利润增长率会趋于稳定，波动幅度 逐渐缩小；企业步入衰退期后，会经常出现净利润增长率为 负值的情况。综上做出假设H3。 H4：资产报酬率与战略性新兴产业上市公司股权融资效率之 间呈正相关关系。 资产报酬率是企业利润与资产的比值，是衡量企业获利能力 的指标，资产报酬率越高说明该企业的获取利润的能力越 高，资产报酬率过低则反应企业在经营方面可能出现了问 题。同时国内学者在相关研究中也声明了该指标的重要性， 如蒋坛军（2017)[17]提出总资产报酬率是影响企业发展的关 键因素之一。段翀（2014）[18]实证研究后发现，资产负债 率、资产报酬率和应收账款周转率会影响企业的信用风险。 综上本文认为资产报酬率会提高战略性新兴产业股权融资效 率，因此做出假设H4。 H5：股权集中度与战略性新兴产业上市公司股权融资效率呈 负相关关系。 股权集中度是来体现企业股权分散化程度的指标。当股权越集 中，对企业而言其经营决策将会更加注重股东收益最大化，整 体战略实施更加有效率，但同样可以分析的是，股权若过于集 中将不利于员工的发展，企业应对风险的能力将会降低。在国 内学者关于股权集中度的研究中也同样表示出股权集中度为融 资效率带来的负面效应，如王元芳(2016)[19]研究发现随着股 权过于集中化融资效率会随之降低。综上做出假设H5。 H6：综合杠杆与战略性新兴产业上市公司股权融资效率之间 呈负相关关系。 综合杠杆指的是财务杠杆和经营杠杆的乘积，本身反映每一 单位销售量的变化对应每股收益的变化。国内学者在相关的 研究中也注重综合杠杆这个指标，赵红英（2012）[20]在财 务杠杆理论的基础上提出应用综合杠杆法来对企业折现问题 进行分析。虽然毕超（2019）[8]研究综合杠杆对新三板企业 融资效率的影响，结果并不显著，但是本文认为，综合杠杆 过高会面临更高的风险，不利用企业的发展。结合战略性新 兴产业上市公司特点，综上做出假设H6。 3. 模型构建与数据来源 3.1.
    keywords: agx; analysis; b b; changes; companies; efficiency; equity; financing; zhang
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        item: #78 of 280
          id: jracr-185
      author: Feng, Xia; Zhang, Mu
       title: Research on the Management Capability Measurement of GEM Listed Companies based on DEA Tobit Model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2929
      flesch: 76
     summary: Study on management ability, power and in-service consumption. [2] Lijie Y, Ying Z. Management ability, innovation level and innova- tion efficiency.
    keywords: ability; analysis; companies; crisis; dea; journal; management; response; risk; tobit; xia
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        item: #79 of 280
          id: jracr-187
      author: Kernchen, Roman
       title: Risk Forecasting in the Light of Big Data
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8162
      flesch: 44
     summary: 3. TYPES OF ANALYTICAL METHODS FOR BIG DATA RISK FORECASTING The ability to conduct predictive analysis based on large volumes of data is one of the interesting opportunities arising from the spread of large data architectures. Following this, common types of analytical methods for big data risk forecasting are identified and a general framework for their use is outlined.
    keywords: analysis; analytics; big; challenges; change; climate; data; development; financial; forecasting; global; information; intelligence; media; methods; new; potential; risk; risk analysis; security; systems; use
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        item: #80 of 280
          id: jracr-188
      author: Hou, Ruyi; Duan, Tingyu; Sui, Chunying; Wu, Yibo; Wang, Xiujun; Wang, Yujie; Sun, Yu
       title: Investigation of the Risk Awareness of Wearing Masks by the Public during COVID-19 According to the Health Belief Questionnaires of Shanxi Province Residents
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5857
      flesch: 53
     summary: [6] on the behavior of public wearing masks Analysis of Influencing Factors of Public Behaviors of Wearing Masks during the Epidemic The structural equation model showed that self-efficacy and per- ceived susceptibility had significant direct effects on the public wearing masks behavior during COVID-19.
    keywords: behavior; covid-19; efficacy; epidemic; health; masks; model; public; risk; self; susceptibility; wearing
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        item: #81 of 280
          id: jracr-189
      author: Huang,  Chongfu; Huang,  Gordon
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 596
      flesch: 33
     summary: The paper “Study on the Changes of Industrial Structure and Its Causes in Sichuan Province before and after the `5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake' ” by Dongdong Zhu, et al., uses the input-output table, the deviation share analysis method, structural decomposition method and industrial correlation analysis method to analyze the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on various industries in Sichuan Province. The second paper “Rainstorm Warning Information in Beijing: Exploring the Local Perceptions and Views” by Fangping Wang, et al., using the descriptive statistics and non-parametric test methods and the public's cognition, evaluates and expectation of rainstorm warning information in Beijing.
    keywords: analysis; paper; province
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        item: #82 of 280
          id: jracr-19
      author: Huang, Chongfu
       title: Foreword
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 666
      flesch: 39
     summary: The papers can be divided into six categories: industry safety, internet of intelligences，investment risk, environmental risk, disaster risk and food safety risk. In the first category, the paper “Efficient Applications of Risk Analysis in the Chemical Industry and Emergency Response” by Roberto Bubbico, presents some of the most common applications of the Risk Analysis technique in the industrial sector and in the civil protection and emergency planning area.
    keywords: analysis; paper; risk
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        item: #83 of 280
          id: jracr-190
      author: Huang, Chongfu
       title: Geospatial Information Diffusion Technology Supporting by Background Data
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3245
      flesch: 82
     summary: [31] Wray J, Green, G G R. Neural networks, approximation theory, and finite precision computation. F=Erisk。研究区域 G 是云南 省（Yunnan），记为： GYunnan ={g1, g2, ..., g129} 式中，g1=昆明市五华区，g2=昆明市盘龙区，...,g129= 临沧市双江拉祜族佤族布朗族傣族自治县。 为了识别 GYunnan 上的 Erisk，我们必须(观测)知道 每个单元的“地震危险性 [23] ”和“地震易损性 [24] ”。 例如，对玉溪市通海县，即地理单元 g27，我们必须 知道下面向量中每个分量的具体数值： w27=（通海县地震危险性，通海县地震易损性） 如果我们能获得研究区域 G 上识别 F 所需的所 有地理单元上的值，则称该研究区域上的数据对于 识别 F 是完整的，否则称 W 为不完整。据此，本文 给出“数据不完整”的形式化定义如下： 定义 1：设 G 由地理单元 g1, g2, ..., gn 组成，对 gi 的观测记为 wi, i=1, 2, …, n。假定 G 上的地表现象 F 可用这些地理单元上的观测数据集合 图 3. 信息扩散原理的解析几何表述。(a) 用算子和数据集
    keywords: analysis; beijing; diffusion; information; journal; risk
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        item: #84 of 280
          id: jracr-191
      author: Zhu, Dongdong; Wu, Xianhua; Xue, Peipei
       title: Study on the Changes of Industrial Structure in Sichuan Province before and after the "5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake"
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3647
      flesch: 80
     summary: Disentangling the Effects of Multiple Treatments—Measuring the Net Economic Impact of the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, J. Journal of Econometrics, 186(1) (2015) 66-73. How Much Damage Does Resilience Reduce: An Empirical Study Based on Improved CGE Model, J. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 7 (2018) 66-76.
    keywords: coefficient; output; −1𝐹𝐹0; 𝐹𝐹1; 𝐼𝐼 −; 𝐼𝐼−𝐷𝐷; 𝐼𝐼−𝐷𝐷0𝐴𝐴0
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        item: #85 of 280
          id: jracr-193
      author: Wang, Fangping; Zhao, Hanping; Cao, Weihua; Zhang,  Xiaoxue
       title: Rainstorm Warning Information in Beijing: Exploring the Local Perceptions and Views
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3661
      flesch: 82
     summary: 22.4 朋友、邻里转告 14.6 报纸 9.7 电子显示屏 2.7 从未收到 1.8 暴雨预警信息发布及时与否，一次暴雨过程中 是否有实时的预警信息更新，对公众认知风险， 乃至采取防护措施至关重要。由图 4 可知，仍 有 29%的人认为暴雨预警发布的不及时。图 5 表明有一部分人并未能收到暴雨预警信息的 更新。反映了一次暴雨过程中，预警信息更新 的传播与内容可能存在不足。 图 4 暴雨预警及时性 Figure 4 Timeliness of rainstorm warnings 图 5 暴雨预警信息更新接收情况 Figure 5 Reception of rainstorm warning information update （2）暴雨预警信息内容 这里基于预警信息质量（准与不确）和两 个时间维度（上次和前两次）定义虚警效应。 图 6 和表 2 展示了五种虚警效应定义下公众 对预警信任度的统计量和分布情况。结果显示， 23% 48% 19% 8% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 14% 22% 14% 40% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 图 3 各种社会问题严重性排序分析 Figure 3 22.4 朋友、邻里转告 14.6 报纸 9.7 电子显示屏 2.7 从未收到 1.8 暴雨预警信息发布及时与否，一次暴雨过程中 是否有实时的预警信息更新，对公众认知风险， 乃至采取防护措施至关重要。由图 4 可知，仍 有 29%的人认为暴雨预警发布的不及时。图 5 表明有一部分人并未能收到暴雨预警信息的 更新。反映了一次暴雨过程中，预警信息更新 的传播与内容可能存在不足。 图 4 暴雨预警及时性 Figure 4 Timeliness of rainstorm warnings 图 5 暴雨预警信息更新接收情况 Figure 5 Reception of rainstorm warning information update （2）暴雨预警信息内容 这里基于预警信息质量（准与不确）和两 个时间维度（上次和前两次）定义虚警效应。 图 6 和表 2 展示了五种虚警效应定义下公众 对预警信任度的统计量和分布情况。结果显示， 23% 48% 19% 8% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 14% 22% 14% 40% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 图 3 各种社会问题严重性排序分析 Figure 3
    keywords: analysis; figure; information; rainstorm; response; risk; warning
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        item: #86 of 280
          id: jracr-194
      author: Liu, Xiaojing; Ma, Donglai; Zhang, Jiquan; Chen, Peng
       title: The Study of Estimation on Maize Irrigation Water Requirement in the northwest of Liaoning Province
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2418
      flesch: 89
     summary: Then the estimation model of irrigation water requirement of maize at different growth stages of the northwest of Liaoning Province. Keywords: Maize, Drought, Irrigation water requirement, CSMI 辽西北地区玉米灌溉需水量估算研究 刘晓静 1*，马东来 2，张继权 3，陈鹏 1 1. 吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院，四平 136000，中国 2.
    keywords: csmi; irrigation; water
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        item: #87 of 280
          id: jracr-195
      author: Huang, Chongfu; Huang, Gordon
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1638
      flesch: 31
     summary: The papers can be divided into five topics: disaster response, earthquake risk assessment, ecological environment risk management, urban vulnerability assessment and agricultural weather insurance. The papers can be divided into five topics: disaster response, earthquake risk assessment, ecological environment risk management, urban vulnerability assessment and agricultural weather insurance.
    keywords: assessment; disaster; earthquake; vulnerability
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        item: #88 of 280
          id: jracr-196
      author: Malla, Shrijan; Hasegawa, Shuichi; Dahal, Ranjan
       title: Competency of the Infantry Troops of the Nepalese Army in Disaster Response
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 11037
      flesch: 52
     summary: Abstract Although the Nepalese Army’s regular infantry troops are the tools of disaster response their competency at times becomes questionable. Keywords: Nepalese Army, Infantry troops, Disaster response, Competency, Knowledge, Preparedness 1.
    keywords: army; disaster; disaster management; disaster response; infantry; management; military; operations; participants; preparedness; training; troops
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        item: #89 of 280
          id: jracr-198
      author: Li, Wen; Chen, Wenkai; Zhang, Hanran; Su, Zijing
       title: Applicability of Regional Evaluation for Rapid Assessment Models of Earthquake Disaster Life Loss – A case study of Gansu Province
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6421
      flesch: 43
     summary: In the studies of earthquake disaster life loss assessment models, it is especially important to build typical assessment models targeted on regional earthquake life loss characteristics. In order to improve the accuracy of earthquake disaster life loss assessment models to better serve earthquake disaster emergency command decision-making of the governments at all levels, it should be studied from the following three aspects: ①Essential data should be collected about the disaster situation in an affected zone.
    keywords: assessment; china; disaster; earthquake; intensity; life; loss; magnitude; models; mortality; results
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        item: #90 of 280
          id: jracr-199
      author: Xi Yu; Yandong Tang
       title: A Critical Review on the Economics of Disasters
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5703
      flesch: 55
     summary: Dacy and Kunreuther published the book The Economics of Natural Disasters: Implications for Federal Policy on the basis of previous studies in 1969, following the National Flood Insurance Act of the UnitedStates in 1968 and devastating losses from the Alaska earthquake in 1964 Recent advances in Economics of Disasters The economics of natural disasters has gotten initial development during the 1970s.
    keywords: analysis; assessment; damage; disasters; economics; life; losses; methods; model; risk; utility; value
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        item: #91 of 280
          id: jracr-20
      author: Joaquim Rovira; Montse Mari; Marta Schuhmacher; Martí Nadal;  José L. Domingo
       title: Environmental Pollution and Human Health Risks near a Hazardous Waste Landfill. Temporal Trends
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5644
      flesch: 65
     summary: Cr NC NC NC NC NA NC NC 8.22E-08 6.85E-07 The main goal was to determine the environmental concentrations and human health risks derived from the exposure to metals and PCDD/Fs by the population living in the vicinity of the HWL of Castellolí.9 Air and soil samples were collected at sites located at different distances from the HWL.
    keywords: air; health; hwl; levels; metals; nc nc; pcdd; samples; soil
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        item: #92 of 280
          id: jracr-200
      author: Dimitrios I. Stavrou, Nikolaos P. Ventikos
       title: Multicriteria Decision Aid Applications to Support Risk Decisions in the Marine Environment: Locating Suitable Transshipment Areas
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5677
      flesch: 60
     summary: Keywords: Multicriteria decision aid models, ship-to-ship transfer of cargo, aggregation–disaggregation methods, global criterion model. Alternatively, additive value functions can be built by employing the global criterion method (Siskos, 2008).
    keywords: actions; criteria; criterion; decision; functions; method; order; preference; transfer; value
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        item: #93 of 280
          id: jracr-202
      author: Dongliang Liu; Liang Wang; Tong Wang; Yan Liu; Ya Chen
       title: Optimization of Ventilation and Alarm Setting During the Process of Ammonia Leak in Refrigeration Machinery Room Based on Numerical Simulation
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4679
      flesch: 57
     summary: 2.1.1 Continuity equation Because the process of ammonia leakage is isothermal process, and the concentration of ammonia gas is different from the air density in the environment, so the continuity equation form selected is: ( ) 0 The air exhaust port is set on the ceiling of the work shop, above the leakage point, which can effectively reduce the diffusion range of ammonia gas.
    keywords: air; alarm; ammonia; diffusion; distribution; effect; exhaust; gas; leakage; refrigeration; setting; ventilation
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        item: #94 of 280
          id: jracr-203
      author: Baolin Sun; Chaohao Sun; Chang Liu; Chao Gui
       title: Research on Initial Trust Model of Mobile Banking Users
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4220
      flesch: 43
     summary: A reasonable explanation may be that domestic mobile communication operators and the support of mobile phone bank scale are relatively large, then their reputation are better in return; (6) the quantity of users’ payments has a direct and important influence on mobile banking trust, meaning that trust of mobile banking increases as the quantity of payment goes up, so plays an important role on use and promotion of mobile banking. Therefore, the mobile phone banks need to pay more attention to the initial sense of trust and experience to promote user acceptance and trust mobile banking services.
    keywords: banking; experience; financial; information; mobile; payment; phone; trust; users
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        item: #95 of 280
          id: jracr-204
      author: Jingfeng Luo
       title: Research on Mechanism of Risk Coupling for Rural Tourism Safety
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 969
      flesch: 87
     summary: Keywords: Rural tourism, tourism safety, risk coupling, mechanism, trigger, periphery theory 乡村旅游安全风险耦合机理研究 罗景峰 1,2 1 华侨大学旅游学院，福建泉州 362021 2 中国旅游研究院旅游安全研究基地，福建泉州 362021 摘要：鉴于乡村旅游安全事故风险作用过程迄今未被描述和分析，提出乡村旅游安全事故风险耦合分析模型。 首先，运用区域环境风险系统理论，分析乡村旅游安全系统构成及其要素相互作用关系；其次，从人、物、环 境及管理的维度出发，建立乡村旅游安全风险因素钻石模型；然后，基于耦合的内涵，界定乡村旅游安全事故 风险耦合的含义及类型；最后，根据界壳与触发器的优势互补性，建立乡村旅游安全风险耦合机理模型，并通 过该模型描述了乡村旅游安全耦合风险的形成机理。研究结果可为乡村旅游安全风险管理提供可行对策、合理 建议。 关键词：乡村旅游，旅游安全，风险耦合，机理，触发器，界壳理论 罗景峰（1975-），男，蒙古族，辽宁阜新人，讲师，博士，国家注册安全工程师，中国职业安全健康协会会员，中国系统工程学会会员， 主要研究方向为旅游风险分析与安全评价。 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 7, No. 1 (April 2017) Finally, based on the periphery theory and trigger working principle, a risk coupling mechanism model of rural tourism safety was established according to the “rural tourism risk trigger”.
    keywords: analysis; risk; safety; tourism
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        item: #96 of 280
          id: jracr-205
      author: Xin Song; Li Li; Lei Xiao
       title: Review of Research on Credit Risk Management for Rural Credit Cooperatives
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4366
      flesch: 48
     summary: The types of credit risks in rural credit cooperatives Credit risk refers to the fact that the borrower cannot return the credit principal and interest for various reasons on time, which makes the actual income result deviate from the expected profit goal and suffer the loss of assets in the operation and management of the rural credit cooperatives. Wu Baoshan (2006) argues that the main forms of rural credit risk are operational risk, management risk, local policy risk, farmer credit risk and loan transfer risk.
    keywords: analysis; cooperatives; credit; credit cooperatives; credit risk; evaluation; farmers; loans; micro; model; risk; rural; system
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        item: #97 of 280
          id: jracr-206
      author: Wang, Xinpu; Zhang, Mu
       title: Evaluation on Ecological Civilization Construction Level in Guizhou Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6112
      flesch: 47
     summary: Establishment of an index system of Ecological Civilization Construction Level The selection of ecological civilization indicators plays an important role in accurately evaluating the level of ecological civilization construction. Keywords: construction of ecological civilization; the level of ecological civilization construction; IFAHP; comprehensive evaluation *Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Huaxi Guiyang Guizhou 550025, China.
    keywords: civilization; construction; evaluation; fuzzy; guizhou; ij ij; index; level;  
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        item: #98 of 280
          id: jracr-207
      author: Tang, Bo; Qiu, Jinan; Huang,  Jiaying; Zhang, Yuanyuan; Qiu, Feipeng
       title: Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Vulnerability in Guangzhou
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6285
      flesch: 37
     summary: Urban vulnerability is a comprehensive problem, and the regulation path of urban vulnerability is one of the directions to be explored in the future. Abstract The evaluation of urban vulnerability is of great significance to improve the quality of urbanization.
    keywords: area; city; development; figure; gdp; group; guangzhou; population; population vulnerability; social; urban; vulnerability
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        item: #99 of 280
          id: jracr-208
      author: Wang, Yueqin; Zhao, Sijian
       title: Summary of Researches on Basis Risk in Weather Index Insurance
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4938
      flesch: 70
     summary: Keywords: Agricultural Weather Index Insurance, Basis Risk, Formation Mechanism, Quantitative Methods, Risk Management 农业天气指数保险中基差风险的研究进展 王月琴 1,2 , 赵思健 1,2* 1. 33.Yindong, Study on Weather Index Agricultural Insurance and Its Technical Issues, XianDai NongYe KeJi.(06)(2014)330-332+335.
    keywords: agricultural; analysis; china; chinese; crisis; crop; economics; index; index insurance; insurance; journal; june; research; risk; weather; weather index
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        item: #100 of 280
          id: jracr-209
      author: Xing, Kaicheng; Guo, Shujun
       title: Study on Meteorological Service Policy for Agricultural Insurance in Hebei Province under the Background of Climate Change
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2027
      flesch: 75
     summary: Key Laboratory of Meteorological and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 05002, China 2. Hebei Climate Center, Shijiazhuang 050021, China 3. Accepted December 22, 2018 Abstract Hebei Province is a region sensitive to global climate change.
    keywords: climate; hebei; insurance; meteorological; risk
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        item: #101 of 280
          id: jracr-21
      author: Li Li; Zongfang Zhou; Xiao Lei
       title: Evaluating of Loan Guarantees Between Parent and Subsidiary Based on Vulnerable Option
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1702
      flesch: 83
     summary:     ( ) IS t e  ( ) exp( ( )) ( ), ] S t X r T t V t S t e S t X r T t V t T           exp( ( )) ( )
    keywords: s t; t t;  
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        item: #102 of 280
          id: jracr-210
      author: Li Xu; Xiaobing Hu
       title: A Study on Marine Vessels’ Path Optimization under Typhoon Scenarios
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2667
      flesch: 88
     summary: 。 此仿真主要用于比较 RHC 和 CDO 的在线计算时间 （OCT）及性能，即从始发港到目地港的实际航行 时间（AST）由于篇幅限制，我们仅采用并显示了 整个航行过程中 8 个时间段相关的结果。数值仿真 结果见表 2-表 RHC 的
    keywords: case; fig; journal; july; marine; oct; response; rhc; vol
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        item: #103 of 280
          id: jracr-212
      author: Ruiyan Wu;  Ming Zhao; Ruiping Zhou
       title: Evaluation on Eco-Environmental Quality of Ordos Plateau
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2957
      flesch: 34
     summary: The ecological index value increased from 52.06 of 2005 to 53.11 in 2014, and land ecological environment quality of Dongsheng district has rising trend from the overall view, but the amplitude variations in the ecological environment condition has no obvious change, land ecological environment is good, the land ecosystem structure is complete, and its function is basically perfect. Then draw these objects on the basis of Arcgis platform, the results are shown in figure1, figure 2. 4.2 Evaluation on Ecological Environment On the basis of “Technical Criterion for Ecosystem Status Evaluation”, combine with table1-7, put the area of difference land use types into the formula, finally can get to ecological quality index during 2005-2014 (table 8).
    keywords: area; ecological; environment; evaluation; index; land; quality; water
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        item: #104 of 280
          id: jracr-214
      author: Hamzeh Zarei; Felix Kin Peng Hui; Colin Duffield; George Wang
       title: The Risk of Power Imbalance in Project Delivery: A Study of Large Victorian Public Infrastructure Projects
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8346
      flesch: 49
     summary: The findings verify that underestimating the overpromising behavior of project delivery agencies during the planning stage of infrastructure is a critical risk that would impact the perception of success. In a visual framework that graphically illustrates the power field of project agencies, the dissimilar perspectives of central and delivery agencies are studied and the risks of making suboptimal decision investigated.
    keywords: agencies; agency; authority; behavior; business; case; decision; delivery; influence; information; infrastructure; knowledge; power; project; public; risk; theory
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        item: #105 of 280
          id: jracr-215
      author: El Hadj Hamel; Nadia Kadiri; Abbes Rabhi
       title: A Note on Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Hazard Quantile Function
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3623
      flesch: 77
     summary: Since supt |F̂Y |X (Q̂Y |X )(t)− FY |X (QY |X )(t)| −→ 0 and FY |X (QY |X )(t) = t, equation (14) is asymptoti- cally equal to = √ n 1 hH ∫ 1 0 H ( t − γ hH ) (qY −X (t)− q̂Y −X (t))dt (1 − t)(qY |X (t))2 + √ n hH ∫ 1 0 H ( t − γ hH ) Since supt |Q̂Y |X (t) − QY |X (t)| −→ 0 almost surely, equation (10) is asymptotically equal to Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 7, No. 3 (October 2017)
    keywords: fy |x; qy |x
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        item: #106 of 280
          id: jracr-216
      author: Yifang Leng; Chongfu Huang
       title: A Research on Community Risk Radar with Presetting Forms to Structure Information in Internet of Intelligence
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2184
      flesch: 71
     summary: (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing. Post address: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, No.19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, China This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41671502), and partly supported by the Beijing Cazl Technology Service Co., Ltd.. Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 7, No. 3 (October 2017)
    keywords: adobe; analysis; beijing; char(20; crisis; journal; october; response; risk; vol; 黄崇福
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        item: #107 of 280
          id: jracr-217
      author: Weidan Wang; Chongfu Huang
       title: A Study on Construction Method of Consensus Measure Space of Macro-seismic Anomalies
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2671
      flesch: 95
     summary: id NT NV N N N iγ κ= =L L， （10） 其中，Si 表示第 i 个情景，id 是情景的唯一标识， NT 表示情景 S 包含的要素总数，即宏观异常个数， NV 是情景中异常类别数， 1iN 表示第一类异常 在情景 Si 中出现的个数， 以此类推。 1V ,2 5, ,iN NL ，i iγ 表示情景 i 中宏观异常覆盖的面积。 宏观异常情景评价信息的表达。假设呈现出一个 宏观异常群情景，一线地震工作者对该情景的综合异 常程度进行评判，这个评判信息怎么表达呢？目前地 震的相关研究大多还处于初级阶段，特别是宏观异常 在实际工作中发挥作用，更多的是依靠经验。我们要 建立相关的智联网服务平台，一线地震工作者们可根 据自身的经验和智慧对平台推送的宏观异常群情景进 行整体把控，得出一个判断结论。 可以直接把自然语言映射成某个数值或数值区 间。例如把严重程度从不严重到非常严重映射到[0,10] 区间上，“比较小，不太严重”转换为数值 3。有时为 了方便，我们常常分区间来表达，例如可将[0,10]划分 为 5 个级别，[0-2]表示不严重，[2-4]表示不太严重， [4-6]表示严重，[6-8]表示比较严重，[8-10]表示非常严 重。直接选择和判断最接近的区间，这个过程其实是 进行逻辑匹配的过程。不论是直接映射成数值还是直 接选择区间，都不可避免地丢失了很多信息。把这些 描述转换成某个论域上的模糊子集可以更准确地表达 模糊评价信息。我们要做的是将这种模糊判断通过画 图画出来。 如图 2 所示，对出现的宏观异常组成的群体强度 做一个整体评判。横轴表示针对某一宏观异常群中出 现的全部宏观异常的种类、数量、范围、规模以及单 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 7, No. 3 (October 2017) 166–177 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 170 个宏观异常的异常幅度等做出的严重程度判断，数值 越大表示越严重，用区间[0,10]中一个适当的数值来表 示，这个数值就是前面提到的宏观异常群严重度。这 里不严重为 0，非常严重为 10。纵轴表示对相对应严 重程度的可能性判断，可以理解为信度或者隶属度， 是对相对宏观异常群严重度的可能性判断。 一线地震工作者对群体异常严重程度的评判是模 糊的，前面提到了宏观异常群严重度和隶属度的概念， 我们以 来表示宏观异常严重度。出现一个宏观异常 群，一线地震工作者通过画曲线的形式模糊输入进行 评判，这个判断是连续的，存储的时候就需要根据需 z 要进行采样，得到离散化的一组数据。这样每次评判 都可以得到一组 ( , )pυ 数据，其中υ 可看做宏观异常群 严重度 z 的监控点空间，p 是对应的隶属度。 假设一共进行了 k 次评价，记 {1, 2, , }θ β= i N N N mpυ= L （17） 其中 。把1, 2, , ; 1, 2, ,e k i= =L L n eI 作为矩阵的一 行，共有 k 行。 eI 表示这是第 e 次评价，e 是评价 ID，i 是情景 ID， Ni1 表示第一类异常 V1 在情景
    keywords: anomalies; macro
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        item: #108 of 280
          id: jracr-218
      author: Min Ding; Shuzhen Peng; Longjiang Mao; Wei Zhang;  Qiuyue Zhao
       title: Major Element Geochemistry of LongShan Loess Profile in the Central Shandong Mountainous regions, Northern China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7345
      flesch: 57
     summary: The result of the experiment As it is indicated in Fig.2 and Fig.3, the major elements in the LS section of Shandong have the following characteristics: • the composition of major elements in LS section as follows, the content of SiO2 is the highest which is 52.07%~65.53%, the content of Al2O3 is 12.36%~15.85%, the content of Fe2O3 is 3.90%~6.63%, the content of K2O is 1.96%~2.66%, The average content of the four main chemical components in the LS section which are SiO2, Al2O3, Fe2O3, K2O, the average content of the four reaches 82.22% (69.78%~99.30%), the composition sequence for the average content of the elements is SiO2 (59.30%) >>Al2O3 (14.01%) > Fe2O3 (5.14%) > Compared with the different layers of LS section, the dropping Na, K and the rich Ti is almost at the same degree which means the characteristics of the source area; the difference between the layers of Ca is obvious.
    keywords: chemical; cia; elements; et al; k2o; loess; plateau; section; shandong; weathering; yhc
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        item: #109 of 280
          id: jracr-22
      author: Patrick Lagadec; Benjamin Topper
       title: How Crises Model the Modern World
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8228
      flesch: 58
     summary: It points out the problem of inductive reasoning: we cannot really learn from our past experiences, and cannot always apply what has been learned in past crises to new crises. The importance of knowledge, specifically knowledge of previous crises, is a question that can be raised, as new crises become more and more difficult to apprehend.
    keywords: atlantis; authors; challenge; copyright; crises; crisis management; energy; information; management; new; press; ref; rrf; situation; system; time; world
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        item: #110 of 280
          id: jracr-220
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Principle of Internet of Intelligences and Development of its Core Technology
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2368
      flesch: 67
     summary: 人们停留在 Smart 水平的根本的原因，不是开 发数学模型的努力不够，也不是计算机还不够发达。 根本的原因是现有的数学原理不支持集小智慧为大 智慧的数学模型的出现。 事实上，人类从第一代数学进化到第二代数学 后，就没有质的进步。本文将研究静态问题的数学 称为第一代数学；研究动态问题的数学称为第二代 数学。只有出现第三代数学，人类才具有研究智慧 问题的数学工具。本文将第三代数学称为智能数学。 当然，并非文[15]认为的，具有格结构的模糊数学， 就是智能数学。模糊数学是第二代数学中一个很小 的部分。 人们从简单的计数到美轮美奂的代数系统，并 坚韧不拔地在证明诸如哥德巴赫猜想等大量关于 “数”的定律，历经几千年，构建了第一代数学； 从牛顿研究天体运动规律的需要，到柯西简洁而严 格地证明了的牛顿-莱布尼茨微积分学，再到充满争 议的主观-非主观概率论，历经三百多年，人们构建 了第二代数学。这两代数学，组成了体系宏大的传 统数学，严密而富有活力，为现代科学和技术的发 展，提供了重要的工具。但是，到目前为止，没有 一门数学学科是因为研究智慧的生成、发展和增强 而发展起来。人们已经满足于用传统数学的良性拓 展来研究天地万物，也包括研究智能问题。 超越 Smart 的智能数学，目前只能是一个泛泛 而谈的第三代数学，实质性的探索的工作之一，或 许可以从建立网络数学开始。 目前，无论是 IMB 的“Watson”，还是在线或非 在线的网页语义分析，抑或是棋技超群的 Google 的 AlphaGo，大凡用到数学，无一不是以传统数学为基 础。没有一门数学学科是因为研究互联网中的各种 现象而发展起来的。 然而，正如将传统数学的十进制数用于计算机 设计，电路很难实现一样，以传统数学为基础来研 究互联网中的各种现象，注定效率低下。虽然十进 制表述的任何数学问题均可转化为用二进制表述， 成为计算机能读懂的问题，但如果没有二进制，没 有布尔代数，就没有今天的计算机科学。同理，没 有网络数学的出现，基于传统数学的模型，不可能 支持高效的智联网。 新一代数学出现，必然出现一套全新的数学符 号。研究静态问题的第一代数学，其代表性符号是 阿拉伯数字、四则运算符、几何图形、英文字母和 矩阵等。研究动态问题的第二代数学，其代表性符 号是极限、无穷大、无穷小、微分、积分、矢量和 形形色色的空间符号等。 我们不知道研究智慧问题的第三代数学，其代 表性符号将是什么。本文建议，在网络数学中，可 使用互联网中常用的符号，例如“@”和图 6 所示的 “二维码”等。 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 7, No. 3 (October 2017) 因素藤结构。 图 7. 微信中使用的符号。 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 7, No. 3 (October 2017)
    keywords: adobe; analysis; crisis; html; internet; journal; mysql; october; php; response; risk; vol
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        item: #111 of 280
          id: jracr-221
      author: Jun Guo; Chongfu Huang
       title: Time Limit of the Probabilistic Risk for Natural Disaster
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2609
      flesch: 69
     summary: Jun Guo1,2, Chongfu Huang1,2,† 1 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 2 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, the Peoples' Republic of China, Beijing 100875, China Abstract Since natural disaster risk is a feature of the future and is also dynamic, the result of probabilistic risk analysis for natural disaster has its own time limit. Because the system of natural disaster risk is complex and comprehensive, the dynamics of natural disaster risk is caused by numerous reasons related to both natural and social environment and is with great uncertainty.
    keywords: adobe; analysis; beijing; china; crisis; disaster; journal; october; pdf; response; risk; vol
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        item: #112 of 280
          id: jracr-223
      author: Jin Chen; Wen Li; Wenkai Chen; Suping Zhang
       title: Assessment of Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction Capability of County-Level Administrative Units in Gansu Province
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5517
      flesch: 43
     summary: Li Zhi, Zhao Xiaohui, Qu Le, A case study in casualty on the assessment for the ability of earthquake disaster reduction in regions, Journal of Disaster Prevention and Reduction. Liu Li, Xie Lili, Study on factors influencing on ability of earthquake disaster reduction in a city, World Earthquake Engineering.
    keywords: capability; disaster; district; earthquake; earthquake prevention; gansu; hierarchy; prevention; reduction; reduction capability; supporting
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        item: #113 of 280
          id: jracr-224
      author: Yaxi Huang; Mu Zhang
       title: Research on Evaluation of Equity Financing Efficiency of Listed Companies in Strategic Emerging Industries
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 11972
      flesch: 53
     summary: From the scale pay, the economic scale of Chuanrungufen should be increased, Zhongguobaoan and other 179 decision-making units should be reduced; Dongxulantian and other 169 decision-making units have different levels of input redundancy and lack of output; equity financing efficiency is unevenly developed between different industries. However, the average pure technical efficiency of the Table 4-2 The overall efficiency of equity financing efficiency in strategic emerging industries Comprehensive efficiency Pure technical efficiency Scale efficiency DEA effective 18（9.09%）
    keywords: analysis; companies; dea; decision; drs; efficiency; energy; equity; equity financing; evaluation; financing; financing efficiency; industries; industry; input; model; output; risk; scale
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        item: #114 of 280
          id: jracr-226
      author: Weigeng Shao; Feng Jiang; Liya Huang; Xiaolong Wang
       title: Risk Assessment of Canine Distemper in the Distribution Area of Giant Panda in Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu Provinces, China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1798
      flesch: 55
     summary: Analysis of Canine distemper risk in the main active area of giant panda Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 7, No. 4 (December 2017) ROC curve of Canine distemper risk distribution 注：ROC
    keywords: adobe; canine; china; distemper; maxent; panda; risk
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        item: #115 of 280
          id: jracr-227
      author: Anping Pan; Chongfu Huang; Dehua Jiang
       title: Wenzhou Real Estate Bubble and Rupture Risk Warning
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2313
      flesch: 76
     summary: (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing. (Za stvaranje Adobe PDF dokumenata najpogodnijih za visokokvalitetni ispis prije tiskanja koristite ove postavke.
    keywords: adobe; analysis; crisis; december; journal; response; risk; vol; wenzhou
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        item: #116 of 280
          id: jracr-228
      author: Ye Xue; Xiaoxiao Li; Wen Sun; Baozhang Chen
       title: A Fuzzy Method for Assessing Eco-Environmental Disaster Risk Caused by Coalbed Methane in China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5991
      flesch: 47
     summary: and by adjusting the learning algorithm of the model, we can get the actual outputs of eco-environmental risk assessment in CBM industrialization development. Furthermore, the assessment results are compared with those obtained by fuzzy neural networks model.
    keywords: assessment; cbm; eco; environmental; index; intuitionistic; model; risk; system
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        item: #117 of 280
          id: jracr-23
      author: J. POZO; A. SCHMESSANE; A. POZO; C. POZO
       title: Perception of Risks in Nanotechnology: Determining Key Aspects in Chile
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5283
      flesch: 45
     summary: The issues contemplated in the survey are the ingredi- ents for responsible nanotechnology in Chile, the pro- portion of them in the equation respond principally to the cultural framework in Chile and how Chilean socie- ty responds. Abstract The purpose of this study is to provide preliminary base-line data on public perceptions about the risks associated with nanotechnology.
    keywords: chile; development; fig; groups; nanotechnology; people; pozo; public; research; risks; students
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        item: #118 of 280
          id: jracr-231
      author: Yu Ding; Mu Zhang
       title: Research on the Development of County Finance in Guizhou Province in the Promotion of Precise Poverty Alleviation
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5295
      flesch: 79
     summary: For this reason, this paper uses panel data model for 2013 to 2015, 50 state-level poverty-stricken counties in Guizhou financial development study of precise role for poverty alleviation. Abstract This paper selects the 50 state-level poverty-stricken counties in Guizhou province as the research object, and uses financial scale, financial efficiency and financial structure to represent the level of financial development in each county, using economic growth and income distribution as controlled variable.
    keywords: data; development; efficiency; financial; guizhou; income; model; poverty
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        item: #119 of 280
          id: jracr-232
      author: Ying Xu; Chao Gao; Xuewen Li; Taiming Yang;  Xibo Sun; Congcong Wang; De Li
       title: The Design of a Drought Weather Index Insurance System for Summer Maize in Anhui Province, China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5709
      flesch: 55
     summary: 2. Payment standards based on summer maize drought weather index insurance. A compensation standard for insurance claims resulting from summer maize drought is proposed in this paper, and revisions are presented to the drought weather index by incorporating relative humidity from the initial insurance period.
    keywords: anhui; drought; index; insurance; maize; precipitation; province; summer; summer maize; weather; weather index
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        item: #120 of 280
          id: jracr-234
      author: Xiuyan Zhang; Ran Liu; Aiwen Yu
       title: Capability Evaluation of Ground Support for Emergency Rescue Helicopters
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1771
      flesch: 89
     summary: This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 8, No. 2 (June 2018) Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 8, No. 2 (June 2018)
    keywords: analysis; crisis; evaluation; journal; june; response; risk; vol
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        item: #121 of 280
          id: jracr-236
      author: Sadiq Gumi Abubakar; Jingchun Feng; Salisu Gidado Dalibi; Xinpeng Li; Chuanbin Zheng; Liang Cao
       title: Project Portfolio Management Strategies in Housing Estate Development Organizations in Nigeria’s Built Environment
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8164
      flesch: 47
     summary: These has led to challenges and questions about project portfolio management (PPM) strategies that align and fit portfolios with the organizational objectives while also delivering estate development projects that are less risky and marketable. As such, housing estate development organizations are faced with challenges of project portfolio management (PPM) strategies that align and fit with their organizational objectives while also delivering estate development projects that are less risky and marketable.
    keywords: development; estate; housing; journal; management; management strategy; nigeria; organizations; portfolio; portfolio management; ppm; project; project management; project portfolio; strategies; strategy
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        item: #122 of 280
          id: jracr-237
      author: Siqi Li; Mu Zhang; Xinpu Wang
       title: Research on Promoting Effect of Tourism Industry Development on Tourism Poverty Alleviation in Guizhou
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6654
      flesch: 61
     summary: Feng Chen (2014) mentioned the need to improve the object recognition mechanism of poverty alleviation, and advocated the development of specific support plans and measures in accordance with the characteristics of different households in different villages [1]. Based on the hypothesis that tourism development has a positive promoting effect on reducing poverty, this article selects development level of tourism, tourist attraction and ecological-economic development level as explanatory variables of the empirical model, considering the national consumption level in Guizhou county precision for poverty alleviation, the influence of long economic rights and income distribution is chosen as the control variables of the model.
    keywords: alleviation; counties; county; data; development; effect; guizhou; model; panel; poverty; poverty alleviation; time; tourism
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        item: #123 of 280
          id: jracr-238
      author: Hanping Zhao; Chence Niu; Tingting Zhang; Sida Cai
       title: Review and Prospect of Emergency Logistics under Uncertainty Conditions
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3409
      flesch: 70
     summary: [15] 地震 √ √ √ √ 成本 √ √ 均衡规划 Bozorgi-Amiri[16] 飓风 √ √ √ √ 拉格朗日 L-shaped 方法 Rawls 等 [17] 地震 √ √ √ √ √ √ GAMS/CPLEX Mete 等[18] 突发 √ √ 安全性、 畅通度 √ 蒙特卡罗模拟 和遗传算法的 混合智能方法 王旭坪等[19] 突发 √ √ √ 可靠路径搜索 算法 缪成等 [20] 突发 √ √ GAMS/CPLEX Salmeron 等[21] 突发 √ √ √ √ 成本、运 输条件 √ 粒子群优化算 法 Bozorgi- Amiri 等[22]] 台风 √ √ √ √ 遗传算法 He 等[23] 突发 √ √ 未满足货物 库存模型 Chakravarty [2 4] 地震 √ √ √ √ √ √ 运输成本 √ CPLEX、拉格 朗日松弛算法 Döyen [25] 情景分 析法 地震 √ √ √ √ √ √ GAMS/CPLEX Mete[26] 突发 √ √ 混合智能算法 孙莉[27] 和 Hu 等[23] 则假设需求点的需求为泊松分布，为应急供应链系 统建立了一个多重营救模型。 （4）机会约束法 在应急条件下，要求绝对满足某些约束条件是 不现实的，机会约束规划（Chance constrained programming）模型可以解决这样的问题[43, 44]，为允 103 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 8, No. 2 (June 2018) 101-109 许所作决策在一定程度上不满足约束条件，即约束 条件满足概率不小于某一置信水平。即令 ( ) αθζθ ≥=≤ },...2,1,0,Pr{ pxg 其中 gθ(x,ζ), θ=1,2,…,p, 为随机约束函数， 是预先设 定的置信水平。 比如，Beraldi 等[28, 29]在研究急救医疗服务问题 时利用机会约束条件描述服务车辆以一定概率满足 表 1 主要文献分类汇总 解决问题 不确定性因素 目标函数构成 不确定 性实现 方法 突发事 件 选址 分配 运输 库存 需求 供应 时间 其他 参数 成本 时间 满意 度 其他 求解方法 作者 地震 √ √ √ √ √ Lingo 王晶等[9] 洪水 √ √ √ 未满足补偿 Lingo 张玲等[10] 台风 √ √ 受困人群暴 露度 CPLEX Yao 等
    keywords: analysis; disaster; emergency; engineering; journal; logistics; management; operations; optimization; relief; research; response; risk; robust; stochastic; transportation; uncertainty; √ √; 突发 √
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        item: #124 of 280
          id: jracr-24
      author: Xinghua Li; Wenjie Wu; Dibo Lv; Cunhou Zhang
       title: Research on Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Forest and Grassland Fires
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2002
      flesch: 77
     summary: 盟阿尔山原始林区、大青山原始林区、贺兰山原始林 区等六大原始林区，原始林区面积达到18.7×10 4 km 2 ， Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 70 Study On Risk Assessment And Regionalization Of Forest And Grassland Fires 居全国第二位，尤其呼伦贝尔市北部和阿尔山的樟子 松等珍贵树种保持着原始森林的特征，是区域环境变 化的敏感地带。另外呼伦贝尔市北部和阿尔山又具有 不同的气候变化特征，阿尔山林区是草典草原包围下 的林区，呼伦贝尔市北部是中国北方原始林区覆盖 区，而贺兰山原始林区被沙漠包围。人工林是内蒙古 森林中不可缺少的组成部分，不仅在条件较好的平原 区开展造林，而且深入河区、水土流失区及牧区进行 造林。防护林、用材林、经济林、薪炭林等都发展较 快。 草原是我国国土的主体和陆地生态系统的主体， 是畜牧业发展的重要物质基础和农牧民赖以生存的 基本生产资料。我国有天然草原面积3.93×10 8 hm 2 ， 约占国土总面积的41.7％，仅次于澳大利亚，居世界 第二位。内蒙古天然草场面积辽阔，是国内重要的畜 牧业生产基地，草原总面积达8666.7×10 4 hm 2 ，其中 可利用草场面积达6818.0×10 4 hm 2[10] 。内蒙古草原类 型分布多样，气候干燥、枯草期长，草原火灾频繁发 生，给畜牧业生产、人民生活及草地生态系统带来巨 大损失，严重地制约和影响了牧区经济可持续发展。 2.1.3. [15] ；22 时～次日 5 时是人 0 200 400 600 800 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324 小时 火 灾 次 数 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 72 Study On Risk Assessment And Regionalization Of Forest And Grassland Fires 类活动最少的时期，也是气候最湿润的时期，因此火 灾次数最少。 3.2.
    keywords: assessment; fire; forest; grassland; inner; mongolia; press; regionalization; risk; zones
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        item: #125 of 280
          id: jracr-244
      author: Changbing Yang; Mu Zhang; Junmeng Lu
       title: Research on the SME’s Collateral Credit Rationing under Loan Risk Compensation Mechanism
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6277
      flesch: 45
     summary: Lower bank risks; the latter, in addition to providing credit loans for obtaining bank credit for small and medium sized enterprises that can not provide sufficient value collateral, provides interest subsidy for those capable of obtaining bank loans, thus reducing the operating costs of the enterprises and helping the enterprises to grow better. (  MpBtCHp hh  (5)  shows the loan loss readiness rate (constant), and  shows the government's compensation rate for bank loans, ]1,0[ .
    keywords: bank; collateral; compensation; credit; enterprises; loan; loan risk; model; rationing; risk; technology
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        item: #126 of 280
          id: jracr-245
      author: Qian Zhang; Deyin Huang; Minyan Li
       title: Study and Application on Risk Assessment Method of Coal Worker Pneumoconiosis Based on Logistic Regression Model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3534
      flesch: 38
     summary: By case study, it was proved that the risk assessment method of coal dust occupational exposure proposed in this study could be applied to the occupational hazard assessment of construction projects, coal dust occupational exposure assessment and risk analysis, as well as the daily risk management of occupational hazards of employers and the management of high-risk occupational diseases such as coal dust. This paper introduced the method of coal dust occupational exposure risk assessment based on the example of a large petrochemical enterprise thermal power plant coal transportation workshop.
    keywords: coal; coal dust; concentration; exposure; occupational; pneumoconiosis; risk; worker
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        item: #127 of 280
          id: jracr-246
      author: Jianchun Yang; Chaochao Liang
       title: Study on the Relationship between Financial Development and Poverty Alleviation in Guizhou Province Based on Kuznets Curve
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2859
      flesch: 46
     summary: Abstract Based on the construction of the nonlinear effect model of financial poverty alleviation, the paper used Granger causality test and regression analysis to analyze the relationship between financial development and poverty alleviation in Guizhou province. Fowowe & Abidoye (2013) believed that financial development poverty may not help to reduce the poverty.
    keywords: alleviation; development; guizhou; poverty; poverty alleviation; province; relationship
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        item: #128 of 280
          id: jracr-247
      author: Qing Wu; Mengtan Gao
       title: A Study of Seismic Macroeconomic Losses Based on Monte Carlo Method—Take Tangshan City as an Example
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1942
      flesch: 74
     summary: 1 (h) H d P = ∑ 1 h 1 (h) H d P − = ∑ （4）根据潜在震源区衰减长轴方位角的概率，抽 样确定地震方位角θ 。 至此，确定了一个地震的基本要素。重复（2）~ （4）步直至所需的该地震带上的地震数目 R，综合 考虑所有可能对场点造成影响的地震带，由此确定出 来一个地震序列，完成一次抽样。通过大规模抽样模 拟，形成地震概率事件集。 时间长度若设置为 1 年，则完成一次抽样模拟得 到的地震序列本文称为 1 年地震序列。时间长度设置 为 10 年，即称为 10 年地震序列。 根据蒙特卡罗方法原理，抽样次数越多结果越精 确，但抽样次数增多会显著增加计算量。因此，为了 统筹考虑计算量和结果精确程度，需进行不同抽样次 数的试验，当计算结果趋于稳定时，即认为不再需要 增加抽样次数。 对于概率事件集里的每一个地震，以地震的经纬 度为原点，衰减长轴方向为正方向，将所有场点转换 到平面坐标下。根据中国地震动参数区划图的椭圆烈 度衰减关系，采用 优椭圆搜索的数值计算方法计算 地震在各个场点处的烈度值 I。 宏观经济易损性模型可表示为： (I, GDP) Y T= （8） 将之代替损失公式中的 GDP 值。 本文收集整理了自 1989 年以来，开展正式地震 现场震害调查和损失评估的中国大陆地震的灾害损 失资料，拟回归宏观经济易损性模型的系数。但由于 收集到的灾评报告基本以划分的评估区或者行政区 为单位给出经济损失估计值，而评估区和行政区往往 与烈度区并不重合，导致经济损失和人员伤亡有时无 法归算到烈度区。而宏观经济易损性模型的高烈度部 分是根据拟合公式外推的，因此需要更多的大地震震 例来验证。 王晓青等[13]给出了宏观经济易损性模型： （9） 8 9.8082 10 11.585 11 11.377 2 10 2700 (I, GDP) 2 10 2700 10000 4 10 10000 I GDP F I GDP I GDP − − − ×
    keywords: analysis; assessment; china; earthquake; gdp; journal; loss; risk
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        item: #129 of 280
          id: jracr-248
      author: Hongbo Yu; Jie Chen; Qiaofeng Zhang
       title: Characteristic Analysis of Ecological Water Use in Xilin River Basin Based on Remote Sensing
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1613
      flesch: 76
     summary: Remote sensing approach was used to retrieve ecological water use by using MODIS images from Apr. to Sept. of 2000、2007、2010- 2014, and using auxiliary environmental data from the same time periods. The results showed the spatial distribution of ecological water use was consistent with the land surface condition.
    keywords: analysis; basin; journal; land; modis; river; use; water; xilin
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        item: #130 of 280
          id: jracr-249
      author: Reza Habibi
       title: Collective Risk Generalization to Creditrisk+
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4083
      flesch: 73
     summary: References R. G. Avesani, K. Liu, A. Mirestean and J. Salvati, Review and implementation of credit risk models in the financial sector assessment program, IMF Working Paper 06/134 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). That is, in this approach, credit risk is considered as risk that borrower of security failures on his/her promised obligations.
    keywords: = 𝑃; risk; 𝐷𝑖 𝑁; 𝐸 λ; 𝐸 𝐸; 𝐸 𝑁; 𝐸 𝑣𝑖; 𝑁 =; 𝑃 𝑁; 𝑝𝑖 𝐸
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        item: #131 of 280
          id: jracr-25
      author: Esperanza López-Vázquez; Maria Luisa Marván
       title: Volcanic Risk Perception, Locus of Control, Stress and Coping Responses of People Living Near the Popocatépetl Volcano in Mexico
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6601
      flesch: 60
     summary: Some topics developed in these studies are: the perception of risk and peoples’ behaviors in a volcanic risk scenario and/or the influence of religious beliefs 8, 9, 10, 11; peoples’ responses to volcanic risks 12, 13, 14; the impact and efficiency of risk communication for people exposed to risk 15, 16, 17; risk perception and socioeconomic variables 18, 15, 10; risk perception, knowledge and preparedness 19, 13, 20, 21; risk perception and risk management 22; and culture and volcanic risk mitigation 23, 24. Volcanic risk* and volcanic risk perception are a main topics of interest in México due to the many volcanoes currently active in the country. Some of these factors related to the perception of risk may include: (a) familiarity with the hazard from daily exposure to it, (b) specific knowledge people have concerning the risk, (c) peoples’ toleration of, or willingness to be exposed to, volcanic risks, (d) the control people may feel they have because volcanic risk may not be a daily source of stress in their lives, and (e) the extent of knowledge that people may have concerning the dangers and possible preventive measures that may be available to them 31,67.
    keywords: control; coping; hazard; journal; locus; participants; people; perception; research; risk; scale; strategies; stress; study; volcanic
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        item: #132 of 280
          id: jracr-250
      author: Cong Lang;  Xinyan Wu; Haoyu Wu
       title: Earthquake Insurance, Catastrophe Insurance and Earthquake Risk & Loss: a Comparative Analysis Based on CiteSpace
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1008
      flesch: 83
     summary: Earthquake insurance can effective transfer and disperse earthquake risk. While study about earthquake risk & loss mainly relied on engineering approach.
    keywords: citespace; earthquake; insurance; risk
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        item: #133 of 280
          id: jracr-252
      author: Yue Pan; Xiankui Zeng; Xinyu Gao; Jichun Wu; Dong Wang
       title: The Human Health Risk Assessment Based on Process Simulation and Uncertainty Analysis
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1192
      flesch: 74
     summary: In order to improve the accuracy of the assessment results, the influence of the uncertainty of the transport model on human health risk assessment is taken into account. Keywords: Human health risk, Dense non-aqueous phase liquids, Model parameter, Uncertainty 基于过程模拟与参数不确定性的人体健康风险评价 潘玥，曾献奎*，高鑫宇，吴吉春，王栋 南京大学地球科学与工程学院，南京 210023, 中国 摘要：水资源是人类生存与生产的重要组成部分，随着城市的现代化发展，地下水污染问题日益严峻，有 效评估地下水污染对人体健康的风险显得尤为重要。本文提出了一种基于污染物运移过程模拟及参数不确 定性分析的人体健康风险评价方法。该方法将健康风险评价与地下水污染物运移过程相结合，利用 TOUGH2 程序模拟有机污染物在地下水中的时空分布。为了提高评价结果的可靠性，考虑污染物运移模拟 模型的不确定性对人体健康风险评价的影响，通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟方法对模拟模型的关键参数 （如介质渗透率）进行反演识别。基于一个室内砂箱实验，选取典型重非水相污染物四氯乙烯（PCE）作 为污染物对象，并通过考虑 PCE 运移模拟模型的参数不确定性来评价人体健康风险，证实了该方法能够为 污染场地的管理与防治提供决策信息。 关键词：人体健康风险，重非水相流体（DNAPL），模型参数，不确定性 1.
    keywords: analysis; assessment; dnapl; elcr; health; pce; risk
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        item: #134 of 280
          id: jracr-253
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 690
      flesch: 42
     summary: Microsoft Word - Editor's Introduction Editor's Introduction The present issue of Journal of Risk analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) The second paper “A Method for Assessing Risk Rating of Natural Gas Pipeline Based on Accident Statistics” by Xu, Liu, Guo and Ji, analyzed 199 natural gas pipeline leakage accidents occurred in China and proposed a method to assess the natural gas pipeline risk rating.
    keywords: crisis; paper; risk
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        item: #135 of 280
          id: jracr-254
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 735
      flesch: 41
     summary: In the present issue of Journal of Risk analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR), Volume 2, Issue 2 (2012), such efforts have been vividly in papers. It argues that the quality of risk analysis depends largely upon the appropriateness of the approach.
    keywords: disaster; paper; risk
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        item: #136 of 280
          id: jracr-255
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 883
      flesch: 42
     summary: “Research Progress on Risk Acceptance Criteria of Long- Distance Oil and Gas Transportation Pipeline” by Wu and Zhang, summarizes the concepts and definition methods of acceptable risk, investigates several common determination principles and their application status of risk acceptance criteria, analyze the differences between long-distance oil and gas pipeline and other industrial facilities in several aspects and also discusses the determination methods and standards of acceptable criteria of different kinds of risks. In the present issue of Journal of Risk analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR), Volume 2, Issue 3 (2012), such efforts have been embodied in these papers.
    keywords: assessment; crisis; paper; risk
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        item: #137 of 280
          id: jracr-256
      author: George C. Wang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 603
      flesch: 37
     summary: I would like to thank the Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) for providing the platform for construction professionals and educators to interact and exchange research experience and results on risk management in construction. The topics cover the development of new models, methods, and framework of risk management in construction; dispute analysis based on numerous data, and the impact of climate on property values.
    keywords: construction; management; risk
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        item: #138 of 280
          id: jracr-257
      author: Chongfu Huang; Ye Xue
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 889
      flesch: 41
     summary: The papers can be divided into five categories: risk assessment, risk management, credit risk, accident risk and risk analysis. This raises the possibility of a link between risk information and health.
    keywords: paper; risk; symmetry
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        item: #139 of 280
          id: jracr-258
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 651
      flesch: 37
     summary: Especially, the proposed decision model seems more consistent with the actual decision problem, than decision model with single data structure. Microsoft Word - Introduction for Volume 3_ Issue 2 Editor’s Introduction Modern society is a competitive society where reducing existent costs is very important, which also is the ultimate goal of risk analysis and crisis response.
    keywords: data; paper; risk
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        item: #140 of 280
          id: jracr-259
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 512
      flesch: 48
     summary: There are decreases in equity and asset beta var values in the insurance industry, less risk dispersion, but there are increases in asset beta mean value in the investment and finance industry (from 0.41 to 0.52) and in equity beta mean value (from 0.81 to 0.96) in this industry. Editor-in-Chief Chongfu Huang Professor, Beijing Normal University Email: hchongfu@gmail.com Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 3, No. 3 (November 2013), 115 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 115
    keywords: industry; risk
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        item: #141 of 280
          id: jracr-26
      author: Mu Zhang; Zongfang Zhou
       title: A Credit Rating Model for Enterprises Based on Projection Pursuit and K-Means Clustering Algorithm
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2594
      flesch: 79
     summary: Keywords: enterprise credit rating; Projection Pursuit; kernel density estimation; initial cluster centers; K-means clustering algorithm 基于投影寻踪和 K-均值聚类的企业信用评级模型 张目 1 周宗放 2 1. 贵州财经大学/金融学院，贵阳 550004 2. 电子科技大学/经济与管理学院，成都 610054 摘要：提出一种基于投影寻踪和 K-均值聚类的企业信用评级模型。首先，运用投影寻踪对样本企业进行信 用综合评分，以反映原高维数据的结构或特征；然后，利用核密度估计法对信用综合得分序列进行分布密 度估计，并根据密度函数的局部极大值点确定原高维空间中的初始聚类中心； 后，从给出的初始聚类中 心出发，运用 K-均值算法获得 终聚类中心，并划分企业信用等级，从而实现对样本企业的信用评级。以 我国高技术产业上市公司为例，应用实例证明了该模型的可行性和有效性。 关键词：企业信用评级，投影寻踪，核密度估计，初始聚类中心，K-均值聚类算法 1. 引言 企业信用评级是运用科学的指标体系、定量分 析和定性分析相结合的方法，通过对企业信用记 录、经营水平、外部环境、财务状况、发展前景以 及可能出现的各种风险等进行客观、科学、公正的 分析研究之后，就其信用能力所做出的综合评价， 并用特定的等级符号标定其信用等级[1]。信用评级 有助于企业防范商业风险，为现代企业制度的建设 提供良好条件；信用评级有利于资本市场的公平、 公正和诚信；同时，信用评级也是商业银行确定贷 款风险程度的依据和信贷资产风险管理的基础。 目前，信用评级 K 个样本 点组成初始聚类中心。假设密度函数 ( )mf z  有 N 个 局部极大值点，当 K=N 时，初始聚类中心随即确 定；当 K＜N 时，从我国商业银行“区别对待，择 优扶持”的信贷原则出发，在 N 个局部极大值点中 选取数值较大的前 K 个点来确定初始聚类中心；当 K＞N 时，则需通过增加训练样本数量来使得 K≤ N。 在确定初始聚类中心后，运用 K-均值算法对训 练样本进行聚类分析，从而得到 K 个 终聚类中心 点。由式（6）计算 K 个 终聚类中心点的信用综合 得分，然后，根据信用综合得分的大小，建立聚类 类别与信用等级的一一对应关系，从而划分出 K 个 信用等级，并实现对训练样本的信用评级。 步骤 6：对新样本进行信用评级。对于一个新 的测试样本，首先，运用式（3）-（5）对测试样本 的信用评级指标值进行标准化处理，特别地，当测 试样本的第 j 个指标值在训练样本指标值区间 min max,j jx x   （ 1, 2, ,j n  ）内时，即为归一化处 理。然后，分别计算测试样本与步骤 5 得出的 K 个 终聚类中心点的欧式距离，找出距离其 近的中 心点，该中心点对应的信用等级即为测试样本所属 的信用等级。特别地，当测试样本与 2 个或 2 个以 上 终聚类中心点的欧式距离相等时，则可通过计 算联系向量距离[32]来加以区分。 4.
    keywords: credit; means; model; press; rating
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        item: #142 of 280
          id: jracr-260
      author: Dong Wang; Ren Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1021
      flesch: 44
     summary: The papers can be divided into four categories: crisis management, risk assessment, time series prediction and cloud model assessment technique. The effect of knowledge deficiency on risk assessment can be illustrated on the instability of risk series by the constrained-random weight method; the result of assessment can incorporate the randomness and fuzziness of risks and corresponding assessments, and transition of quantified risk series into qualitative risk level can be possible as the presence of the cloud model.
    keywords: assessment; crisis; model; risk
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        item: #143 of 280
          id: jracr-261
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 624
      flesch: 39
     summary: Risk matrices are commonly encountered devises used for rating hazards in different areas of risk management and almost in all industries. The risk assessment includes one paper “Review of the strengths and weaknesses of risk matrices” by Mustafa Elmontsri.
    keywords: analysis; paper; risk
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        item: #144 of 280
          id: jracr-262
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 539
      flesch: 39
     summary: The third paper “Construction of Dynamic Risk Maps for Large Metropolitan Areas” by E.S. Guryev, L.V. Poluyan and S.A. Timashev, describes a methodology used for constructing dynamic risk map for a virtual large “Russian Gotham- RG” city. Milík Tichý discusses risk concepts in paper “Analogies in Entity Risk Mechanics”.
    keywords: crisis; paper; risk
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        item: #145 of 280
          id: jracr-263
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 600
      flesch: 36
     summary: The article specifies six risk patterns that match the three categories for emerging risks. The IRGC remerging risk protocol might help risk managers to acquire the necessary knowledge, to articulate the insightful scenarios and to develop the most appropriate risk management strategies for finding the right balance between opportunities and risks.
    keywords: analysis; paper; risk
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        item: #146 of 280
          id: jracr-264
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 689
      flesch: 42
     summary: In the last issue of this year, the six papers can be divided into three categories: risk management, risk assessment and financial risk. There is one paper on risk management, “A Two-Step Water-Management Approach for Nuclear Power Plants in Inland China” by Xiaowen Ding，Guohe Huang,Wang Wei, et al., which reviews the inland nuclear power industry and its policies in China.
    keywords: china; management; paper; risk
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        item: #147 of 280
          id: jracr-265
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang; Mu Zhang
       title: Introduction: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 593
      flesch: 30
     summary: The paper “Research on Society Risk Evolution Mechanism and Countermeasures in Severe Emergency Infectious Disease— In The Case of H7N9 Avian Influenza”, by Xu, Cai and Wang, analyzes and study the evolution and control of society risks caused by severe emergency infectious disease. Firstly, the evolution chain of society risks caused by severe emergency infectious disease is constructed to analyze the evolution rule of society risks and identify the essential factors in countermeasures.
    keywords: paper; risk; society
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        item: #148 of 280
          id: jracr-266
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang; Mu Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 603
      flesch: 40
     summary: The paper “Disaster risk research literature on statistics analysis in China Journal Net”, by Shuzhen Li and Alateng Tuya, features the literature in China related to disaster risks which are collected from China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). This paper also gives several solutions for mitigation pluvial flooding risk based on analyzing the cause of pluvial flooding, identifying risk area and assessing the risk of pluvial flooding in Dangyang city.
    keywords: flood; paper; risk
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        item: #149 of 280
          id: jracr-267
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang; Mu Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 680
      flesch: 51
     summary: The first paper “Spatial Effect on Public Risk Perception of Natural Disaster: a Comparative Study in East Asia” by Zhongyu He and Guofang Zhai, explores the effect of geographical location on public risk perception of natural disasters. The papers can be divided into three topics: emergency management, risk perception and risk assessment.
    keywords: paper; perception; risk
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        item: #150 of 280
          id: jracr-268
      author: Chongfu Huang; Mu Zhang; Junxiang Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 623
      flesch: 42
     summary: According to the current problems of urban drainage systems of Shijiazhuang, two-dimensional surface flow modelling tools was applied, with the consideration of urban master planning, major drainage system was established. The results show that, in Shijiazhuang, 64.5% of storm sewer drainage criteria is less than 1-year return period storm, and only 28.9% of storm sewer can meet the drainage criteria of 2-year return period storm.
    keywords: drainage; risk; system
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        item: #151 of 280
          id: jracr-269
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang; Mu Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 703
      flesch: 41
     summary: The papers can be divided into four categories: experimental riskology, risk perception, financial risk, and public security. Particularly, it is considered as a journal in science and technology rather than policy and law related to risk issues.
    keywords: evaluation; paper; risk
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        item: #152 of 280
          id: jracr-27
      author: Liwen Chen
       title: A Risk-Benefit Analysis Model for Project Investment Based on the Normal Distribution
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2429
      flesch: 56
     summary: z 的 期 望 值 为 ：  )(1 )( d)( d)()(2 zFz zzp ttfz ttzfzg z z         (5) 称 ) 由(11)式可知，在最低标准差期望值函数条件 下，随机变量z 、期望值 μ 、标准差σ 三要素之间 存在着相互制约的关系，(11)式没有解析解，但可 采用计算机可以求出(11)的数值解，三者之间的关 系如图1所示。 图1 随机变量z 、期望值 μ 、标准差σ 三要素之间相互制约的关系图 在三者之间，只有两个要素保持独立或不固定， 最后一个要素必然是由已决定的两个要素中推出的 值，即它们之间存在着两个自由度。即三要素之间 存在着相互制约的关系，称上述关系为“三要素相 互制约准则”。由此可知，对于符合正态分布的随机 变量 z ： ①给定一组参数 μ 、σ
    keywords:  
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        item: #153 of 280
          id: jracr-270
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang; Mu Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 742
      flesch: 44
     summary: Severe weather, including heavy rain, strong winds and hail, has continued to affect southern China, causing more damage and casualties. In paper “Study on Performance Evaluation of Government Comprehensive Supervision for Safety Production Based on Balanced Score Card --- A Case Study in Shandong Province, China”, author, Yu Hao, established a performance evaluation indicator system of safety production supervision within city and county two levels for the local government according to the theory of key performance indicators.
    keywords: china; flood; risk
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        item: #154 of 280
          id: jracr-271
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang; Mu Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 713
      flesch: 40
     summary: This issue contains 5 papers related to crisis threat assessment, financial risk, emergency management, fire risk analysis and marine disaster warning, respectively. The spatial inequality of fire risk is influenced by population, provinces, regions, and fire causes.
    keywords: crisis; fire; risk
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        item: #155 of 280
          id: jracr-272
      author: Chongfu Huang; Junxiang Zhang; Mu Zhang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1080
      flesch: 39
     summary: the first paper “Risk Considerations in the Use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in the Construction Industry” by George Wang, Donna Hollar, Suaan Sayger, et al is to provide construction professionals with timely and pertinent information on unmanned aerial vehicles use with a focus on risk management based on current industry practice, experience and literature review. There is one paper in risk issues in industrial systems.
    keywords: correlation; paper; precipitation; risk
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        item: #156 of 280
          id: jracr-273
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 954
      flesch: 41
     summary: The papers can be divided into five topics: risk decisions in the marine environment, financial risk, disaster economics, risk analysis related to chemical engineering and equipment, and rural tourism safety. Second, under the four dimensions of man, machine, environment, and management, the diamond model is established for rural tourism safety risk.
    keywords: risk; safety; tourism; trust
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        item: #157 of 280
          id: jracr-275
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 678
      flesch: 47
     summary: They considerred that risk is for the future and meanwhile dynamic, the result of probabilistic risk analysis in natural disaster could just represent risk for a limited time, which is the timeliness of probabilistic risk. The paper “Time Limit of the Probabilistic Risk for Natural Disaster”, by Jun Guo & Chongfu Huang, studies the period of validity of probabilistic risk for natural disaster.
    keywords: huang; paper; risk
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        item: #158 of 280
          id: jracr-276
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1352
      flesch: 35
     summary: (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing. (Za stvaranje Adobe PDF dokumenata najpogodnijih za visokokvalitetni ispis prije tiskanja koristite ove postavke.
    keywords: capability; disaster; efficiency; emergency; risk
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        item: #159 of 280
          id: jracr-277
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 986
      flesch: 42
     summary: The papers can be divided into four topics: political risk, hazard assessment, risk analysis and management, and Eco-environmental quality evaluation. In the present issue of Journal of Risk analysis and Crisis Response(JRACR) , Volume 7, Issue 2 (2017), there are 4 contributions written in English and 1 contribution in Chinese with English abstracts.
    keywords: analysis; paper; quality; risk
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        item: #160 of 280
          id: jracr-278
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 874
      flesch: 38
     summary: The model was used to assess tourist destination disaster risk in the province for the period of 2009 - 2014. Using GIS technology, they developed a tourist destination disaster risk zoning map of 2009–2014 for Jilin Province, classified the spatial evolution patterns of tourist destination disaster risk.
    keywords: disaster; model; province; risk
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        item: #161 of 280
          id: jracr-279
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1023
      flesch: 38
     summary: The paper“Project Portfolio Management Strategies in Housing Estate Development Organizations in Nigeria’s Built Environment” by Sadiq Gumi Abubakar, et al., aims to assess the PPM strategies used by housing estate development organizations in Nigeria’s built environment with a view of identifying, examining, and highlighting the impact of these strategies on housing estate development project portfolios in Nigeria. The characteristics of uncertainty appearing in emergency logistics process were analyzed, and the expression of uncertain factors, demand forecasts and objective function definition in decision-making optimization model were summarized; moreover, this article analyzed the key points of research in aspects of emergency logistics operations, uncertainties origination and emergency risks, and provided useful reference and directions for future research.
    keywords: analysis; development; emergency; paper; risk
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        item: #162 of 280
          id: jracr-28
      author: Milík Tichý
       title: Entity Risk Mechanics
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3882
      flesch: 49
     summary: Keywords: Risk theory; structural design; entity; structure; company; risk mechanics 1. 5. Risk capacity, Rscap, and expected risk, Rsexp, are mutually independent random processes.
    keywords: company; entity; hazards; loads; mechanics; risk; space; structure; time
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        item: #163 of 280
          id: jracr-280
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 876
      flesch: 38
     summary: The papers can be divided into four topics: risk assessment, financial risk mitigation strategy, risk perception and risk analysis. There is one paper in risk analysis.
    keywords: analysis; coal; paper; risk
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        item: #164 of 280
          id: jracr-281
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 607
      flesch: 50
     summary: The papers can be divided into four topics: health risk, earthquake risk, credit risk and ecological risk. There is two papers in earthquake risk.
    keywords: analysis; paper; risk
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        item: #165 of 280
          id: jracr-283
      author: Daniel J. Rozell
       title: A Critique of Pandemic Catastrophe Modeling
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5386
      flesch: 46
     summary: In terms of pandemic catastrophe models, diseases can behave unpredictably due to evolving pathogens or changing demo- graphic conditions. The user’s trust in any catastrophe model depends on assurances of validation (i.e., history matching) which may be acceptable in the case of relatively stable processes, such as earthquakes, but more tentative for pandemic catastrophe models that depend on non- stationary processes [42].
    keywords: analysis; assessment; catastrophe; data; disease; ebola; epidemic; factors; forecasting; influenza; modeling; models; outbreak; pandemic; response; risk; science; uncertainty
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        item: #166 of 280
          id: jracr-284
      author: Cheng-Kuang Wu;  Xingwei Hu
       title: A Game Theory Approach for Multi-agent System Resources Allocation against Outside Threats
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 9373
      flesch: 66
     summary: The emergency manager faces problems in agent resource deployment. Figure 1 | Behaviors and interactions between response agents and external attacks.
    keywords: agent; earthquake; emergency; game; mas; model; player; resources; response; response agent; threat; value
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        item: #167 of 280
          id: jracr-285
      author: Xinpu Wan; Mu Zhang
       title: Evaluation on Technology Innovation Efficiency of Big Data Enterprises Based on DEA
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3485
      flesch: 48
     summary: I C L E I N F O Article History Received 28 January 2019 Accepted 18 March 2019 Keywords DEA big data enterprise technological innovation efficiency A B S T R A C T Discussing the technological innovation efficiency of big data enterprises and carrying out in-depth research on big data enterprises will help to accurately evaluate the development status of big data industry and guide the development of big data industry. It is found that the technological innovation efficiency of big data enterprises is better.
    keywords: big; data; development; efficiency; enterprises; industry; innovation; scale; technology
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        item: #168 of 280
          id: jracr-286
      author: Ronggang Zhang;  Lanzhihao Liu
       title: Exploration of Risk Oriented Fund Performance Audit—Take Rural Endowment Insurance as an Example
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5437
      flesch: 43
     summary: Introducing risk orientation into performance audit will be a new idea and breakthrough of fund performance audit in China. And the comprehensive coverage of audit has put forward new requirements for fund performance audit.
    keywords: audit risk; endowment insurance; fund; fund audit; fund performance; insurance fund; pension fund; performance audit; public; risk
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        item: #169 of 280
          id: jracr-287
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 866
      flesch: 38
     summary: The paper “Re-examining Political Risk Assessments in Volatile Regions” by Ghaidaa Hetou, re-examines political risk analysis and explains how understanding the topology and nature of political risk in emerging and developing markets is a crucial advancement in developing political risk analysis for the private sector and govern- ment agencies. The papers can be divided into six topics: risk assessment related to ecological environment, risk assessment related to new technology, political risk assessment, financial risk analysis, emer- gency response and methods on risk analysis.
    keywords: analysis; assessment; paper; risk
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        item: #170 of 280
          id: jracr-288
      author: Hongmei Zhang; Li Teng; Chen Yazhong
       title: Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Environment of 12 Provinces and Cities in Western China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5148
      flesch: 53
     summary: [8,9] and others, and combined with the relevant theories and index selection princi- ples of regional ecological evaluation, this paper constructs a set of comprehensive evaluation index system of fragile ecological environ- ment in western China. [2] Zhang H. Study on comprehensive evaluation of ecological environment in western China.
    keywords: ecological; environment; evaluation; index; method; time; value; western
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        item: #171 of 280
          id: jracr-289
      author: Ghaidaa Hetou
       title: Re-examining Political Risk Assessments in Volatile Regions
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4328
      flesch: 39
     summary: Political risk associated with market entry and subsequent business operations is a slowly evolving sub- category of risk analysis, and one that has not lent itself to strict mathematical modeling and probability assessments. Yet political risk, including cultural, social and economic factors are crucial component of evaluating a proposed investment envi- ronment, not to mention their utility for security and governance, all of which underscore the demand for developing reliable polit- ical risk analysis and processes.
    keywords: analysis; assessment; characterization; context; factors; mena; probability; risk; scenario; system; understanding
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        item: #172 of 280
          id: jracr-29
      author: Kristen Alley Swain
       title: Explanation of Risk and Uncertainty in News Coverage of an Anthrax Attack
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8920
      flesch: 44
     summary: 42. A. Edwards, G. Elwyn, J. Covey, E. Matthews and R. Pill, Presenting risk information: A review of the effects of framing and other manipulations on patient outcomes, Journal of Health Communication 6 (January 2001): 61-82. Risk explanations included estimates of citizens' general risk of anthrax exposure, estimates of citizens' risk of exposure from handling personal mail, and risk comparisons.
    keywords: advice; anthrax; communication; coverage; explanations; health; information; media; news; npr; outrage; press; public; risk; speculation; stories; uncertainty
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        item: #173 of 280
          id: jracr-290
      author: Junmeng Lu; Mu Zhang
       title: The Harmonious Development of Big Data Industry and Financial Agglomeration in Guizhou
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4135
      flesch: 43
     summary: 163–167 between big data industry development and financial agglomera- tion in Guizhou province. This paper used 2015 cross-section data, the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the intuitionistic fuzzy number score function, the coupling model and the coupling coordination model to empirically research the coupling and coordination level between Guizhou big data industry and financial agglomeration.
    keywords: agglomeration; big; coupling; data; data industry; development; financial; industry
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        item: #174 of 280
          id: jracr-293
      author: Jian He; Hongmei Zhang
       title: Prospects of Guizhou Province’s Ecological Agriculture Benefit Evaluation Index System
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7824
      flesch: 28
     summary: At pres- ent, western countries have made world-renowned achievements in the development of ecological agriculture, and foreign countries’ evaluation and research on ecological agriculture systems are grad- ually being carried out. In recent years, most of the foreign countries have adopted frameworks for the creation of ecological agriculture evaluation systems.
    keywords: agriculture; analysis; benefits; comprehensive; construction; development; eco; environment; evaluation; guizhou; guizhou province; index; indicators; production; province; system
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        item: #175 of 280
          id: jracr-295
      author: Chongfu Huang; Gordon Huang
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 784
      flesch: 36
     summary: The first paper “Interannual Variation and Hazard Analysis of Meteorological Disasters in East China” by Jun Shi, Linli Cui and Zhongping Shen, analyzes the overall characteristics, interannual variations and the hazards of meteorological disasters in different provinces of East China based on the historical data of meteorological disasters in East China during 2004–2015. The hazards of meteorological disasters had obvious regional differences.
    keywords: data; paper; risk
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        item: #176 of 280
          id: jracr-296
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Acknowledgements to Referees and Staffs for JRACR in 2015
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 311
      flesch: 64
     summary: Hanping Zhao Xiaomeng Zhou Staffs of JRACR: Editorial Board Office of JRACR Mu Zhang Hongmei Zhang Wen Han Ziyan Wang Xiaobo Lu Editorial Department of JRACR Junxiang Zhang Fei Wen Ortwin Renn Naiqi Shen Congling Shi Runhe Shi Douglas Smith Wenchao Sun Shujun Tian Vinay Tyagi Dong Wang Hongrui Wang Dong Wang Wenguo Weng Xinliang Xu Wei Xu Guiyun You Lejiang Yu Guofang Zhai Jingyan Zhang Jiquan Zhang Mu Zhang Jun Zhao
    keywords: journal; jracr; liu; zhang
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        item: #177 of 280
          id: jracr-297
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Acknowledgements to Referees and Staffs for JRACR in 2016
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 929
      flesch: 33
     summary: (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing. (Za stvaranje Adobe PDF dokumenata najpogodnijih za visokokvalitetni ispis prije tiskanja koristite ove postavke.
    keywords: adobe; journal; jracr; pdf
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        item: #178 of 280
          id: jracr-30
      author: Daniel Baloi
       title: Risk Analysis Techniques in Construction Engineering Projects
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7058
      flesch: 46
     summary: Microsoft Word - Risk Analysis Techniques in Construction Engineering Projects Risk Analysis Techniques in Construction Engineering Projects Daniel Baloi Department of Civil Engineering, Eduardo Mondlane University, Av. de Moçambique, km 1,5, Maputo, Mozambique Email: Baloi@zebra.uem.mz Abstract There is a great deal of risk analysis techniques and tools available for the management of risks. There is a great deal of risk analysis techniques and tools available.
    keywords: analysis; belief; construction; environment; factors; knowledge; organization; probability; risk; techniques; theory; uncertainty
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        item: #179 of 280
          id: jracr-300
      author: Singh, Bhupinder; Henge, Santosh Kumar
       title: Access Risk Management for Arabian IT Company for Investing Based on Prediction of Supervised Learning
        date: 2021-10-30
       words: 4348
      flesch: 64
     summary: [19] C. Li, D. Song and D. Tao, Multi-task recurrent neural networks and higher-order markov random fields for stock price movement prediction: multi-task rnn and higer-order mrfs for stock price classification, SIGKDD, pp. 1141-1151, 2019. [1] K. Zhang, G. Zhong, J. Dong, S. Wang and Y. Wang, Stock market prediction based on generative adversarial networks, Procedia computer science, vol.
    keywords: analysis; data; journal; kumar; learning; machine; market; prediction; price; risk; stock
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        item: #180 of 280
          id: jracr-302
      author: Xu, Kai; Xie, Xiaofeng; Hang, Xing; Zhang, Fengying; Qian, Qian; Zhou, Zongfang; Li, Dongyang; Jiang, Yu
       title: Assessment of COVID-19 Epidemic Control Efficiency Based on SIRS Model
        date: 2021-10-30
       words: 2254
      flesch: 89
     summary: k k k k s kp k k I k k                        （4） 将（4）代入（2），可得：        1 = = k k kp k F k k k                           （5） 可见（5）是关于  的自相容方程， =0 显然是（5）的一个平凡解。
    keywords: k k
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        item: #181 of 280
          id: jracr-303
      author: Zhang, Mu; Cao, Cheng
       title: A Systematic Literature Review on the Credit Risk Management of Big Tech Lending
        date: 2021-10-30
       words: 3784
      flesch: 45
     summary: The research directions of Big Tech Lending credit risk management in the future include: Big Tech Lending credit risk perception and its influencing factors, Big Tech Lending credit risk control mechanism research and Big Tech Lending credit risk early warning model research. Abstract: This article reviews the relevant research of Big Tech Lending credit risk management in order to promote the research on the theory and method of credit risk management of Big Tech Lending.
    keywords: credit; finance; financial; lending; management; research; risk; tech; tech lending; technology
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        item: #182 of 280
          id: jracr-304
      author: Huang, Chongfu
       title: Publication Statement
        date: 2021-10-31
       words: 262
      flesch: 45
     summary: According to the above agreement, JRACR will be hosted and published in Public Knowledge Project – Open Journal Systems since Volume 11, Issue 3. With kind regards Editorial Board Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response Hosted and Published in Public Knowledge Project – Open Journal Systems https://jracr.com/ Email: jracr_srachina@126.com LinkedIn: Junxiang Zhang Signature: Chongfu Huang (Editor-in-chief of JRACR) Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response ISSN Print: 2210-8491 ISSN Online: 2210-8505
    keywords: journal
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        item: #183 of 280
          id: jracr-309
      author: Zhang, Mu; Cao, Cheng; Lv, Zhiyuan
       title: Financial Technology, Big Data Enterprise Financing Constraints and Big Data Industry Development: Empirical Analysis Based on Mediating Effect and Threshold Effect
        date: 2022-01-25
       words: 8547
      flesch: 42
     summary: i itDldbi Dldbi FinTech X u          (1) where i indicates region, t indicates year, itDldbi indicates big data industry development level, 1itDldbi  indicates the dynamic lag term of big data industry development level, itFinTech indicates financial technology development level, kitX indicates the kth control variable, iu is the individual effect, and it is random disturbance term. Variable Selection (1) Explained variable: big data industry development level (Dldbi)
    keywords: coefficient; data enterprise; data industry; development; development level; effect; financial; financing; financing constraints; industry development; regression; regression coefficient; technology; technology development
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        item: #184 of 280
          id: jracr-31
      author: Guo Shujun
       title: The Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment Based on the Diffusion Mechanism
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1441
      flesch: 79
     summary: Keywords: meteorological disaster, risk diffusion, diffusion network, simulation 基于风险扩散机制的气象灾害风险评估 郭树军 河北省气象局，石家庄 050021 摘要：目前有关气象灾害风险的研究，大多是针对单承灾体的风险分析。随着经济社会的发展，近年来气 象灾害风险呈现出“系统型”的特点。气象灾害不仅对直接承灾体产生影响，还通过直接承灾体对其它相 关的承灾体产生影响，通常以扩散方式传导，与人们熟知的灾害链并不一样，相关研究较少。本文提出了 气象灾害风险扩散的概念，揭示了气象灾害风险的扩散机理，建立了风险扩散分析的仿真模拟系统，为较 正确和更全面地认识气象灾害风险扩散现象提供了分析方法和计算模型。以 2009 年华北初冬暴雪为例进行 了风险扩散的过程分析，建立了低温暴雪灾害的风险扩散图，对低温暴雪灾害可能影响的主要领域进行了 系统分析，给出了具有风险预警提示的情景表示，为政府和有关部门应对气象灾害风险提供了决策依据。 关键词：气象灾害，风险扩散，扩散网络，仿真模拟 1. 引言 按照世界气象组织的统计，气象灾害约占自然 灾害的 70%左右。随着经济社会的发展，气象灾害 的连锁效应显著，连锁效应造成的影响有时会比灾 害本身造成的损失还要大，气象灾害风险存在扩散 效应 [1-3] 。目前的气象灾害风险研究虽然取得了不少 的进展，但是，国内外大部分气象灾害的风险评价 工作都是基于“风险度=危险度×易损度”这一传统 的风险评价体系 [4-7] ，该评价体系主要针对单一承灾 体，并不能完全解释气象灾害风险在经济社会领域 中的扩散效应。 近年来，众多科学研究机构启动了综合风险的 相关研究计划,国际科学联盟（ICSU）2008 年启动 了灾害风险综合研究的计划（IRDR），提出在风险 和减轻灾害风险研究中，要对各种灾害或灾害链进 行多学科、多尺度的综合性深入研究 [8] 。2009 年 IHDP 启动了新一轮综合风险防范（IHDP-IRG）的科 学研究计划,重点强调了灾害链风险评价模型的改进 和灾害风险情景模拟工具的完善。有学者利用基于 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 2, No. 2 (August 2012), 124-130 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 124 Administrateur Texte tapé à la machine Received 9 September 2011 Administrateur Texte tapé à la machine Accepted 27 April 2012 Administrateur Texte tapé à la machine Administrateur Texte tapé à la machine Guo Shujun 宏观经济学的投入产出关系研究灾害的宏观效应 [9- 10] 。但是，针对风险扩散机制的研究及应用较为鲜 见。 本文拟从风险产生的关键环节着手，进行气象 灾害风险扩散机理的研究，揭示气象灾害风险产生 和发展、扩散的全过程，为政府和风险管理相关部 门全面认识与有效管理风险提供理论依据和技术支 撑。 2. 气象灾害风险扩散机理 2.1. Microsoft Word - The Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment Based on the Diffusion Mechanism The Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment Based on the Diffusion Mechanism Guo Shujun Hebei Province Meteorological Bureau, Shijiazhuang 050021, China E-mail:gsjun888 @sina.com Abstract At present, the study on meteorological disasters risk is mostly for single hazard-affected body.
    keywords: assessment; diffusion; disaster; meteorological; risk
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        item: #185 of 280
          id: jracr-310
      author: Wu, Chenyang; Liu, Jinyue; Zhang, Hongmei
       title: Data Ecology and Accurate Portrait: Optimization of Credit Risk System for SMEs in Supply Chain Finance Based on Big Data Technology
        date: 2022-01-25
       words: 6904
      flesch: 39
     summary: Wang Chuanlei [9] believed that supply chain control tower is an integrated control center of supply chain data, and an effective tool to realize digital transformation. Data transaction process visualization has become a basic requirement for supply chain finance credit risk management, and the emergence of big data technology has proposed a new solution for supply chain finance credit risk management.
    keywords: chain finance; credit; credit risk; data; enterprises; financing; institutions; management; risk; smes; supervision; supply chain; technology
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        item: #186 of 280
          id: jracr-311
      author: Zhang, Haonan; Zhang, Hongmei; Zhang, Mu
       title: Research on Enterprise Credit Risk Prediction Based on Text Information
        date: 2022-01-25
       words: 5723
      flesch: 55
     summary: First, when using traditional financial data to predict credit risk, profitability has a great impact on credit risk prediction. Abstract: This paper uses the text data mining method to separate the intonation in the annual reports of credit risk enterprises and non-credit risk enterprises, quantify it, and study the impact of annual report intonation on the effectiveness of credit risk prediction.
    keywords: analysis; credit risk; data; model; prediction; report; results; risk; text; tone; variables; zhang
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        item: #187 of 280
          id: jracr-312
      author: Feng, Gang; Zhang, Mu
       title: A Literature Review on Digital Finance, Consumption Upgrading and High-quality Economic Development
        date: 2022-01-25
       words: 5026
      flesch: 39
     summary: The research on digital finance and high-quality economic development from the perspective of consumption upgrading is still very rare. Therefore, this paper will sort out the research status quo of digital finance, consumption upgrading and high-quality economic development, and make a brief review, in order to promote the research of theories and methods among them.
    keywords: consumption; consumption upgrading; development; digital; economic; finance; quality; research; residents; upgrading
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        item: #188 of 280
          id: jracr-313
      author: Pan, Anping; Luo, Yutong
       title: Focus on Risk Crisis Management! 2021 Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions Was Held in Wenzhou
        date: 2022-01-25
       words: 902
      flesch: 33
     summary: Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions Was Held in Wenzhou Anping Pan 1,* and Yutong Luo 2,3 1 College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou (325035), Zhejiang, China 2 School of Big Data Application and Economics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang (550025), Guizhou, China 3 Guizhou Institution for Technology Innovation & Entrepreneurship Investment, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang (550025), Guizhou, China * They are Chinese Academy of Sciences, Professor Kan Shi of Wenzhou University, Professor Chongfu Huang of Beijing Normal University, Professor Xiaojun Li of Beijing University of Technology, Northeast Normal University Professor Jiquan Zhang, Professor Guofang Zhai of Nanjing University, Researcher Xueliang Chen from the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Professor Ren Zhang from National University of Defense Technology, Professor Jiahong Wen from Shanghai Normal University, Professor Hongbin Cao from Beijing Normal University, Professor Anping Pan from Wenzhou University, and Sen Qiao from Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration researcher.
    keywords: analysis; disaster; risk; university
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        item: #189 of 280
          id: jracr-319
      author: Li, Dongyang; Xu, Kai; Li,  Yun; Jiang, Yu; Tang, Ming; Lu, Yangdan; Cheng,  Chun; Wang, Chunxiao; Mo, Guanbing
       title: Financial Distress Prediction for Digital Economy Firms: Based on PCA-Logistic
        date: 2022-04-15
       words: 5703
      flesch: 54
     summary: The construction of financial distress prediction models is the key to ensure the efficiency of forecasting, which has been fruitfully studied in the academic. Abstract: Financial distress prediction is important for risk prevention and control of digital economy firms, as well as going concern guarantee.
    keywords: distress; economy; financial; firms; model; period; prediction;  ;  
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        item: #190 of 280
          id: jracr-32
      author: CHEN Yan; YU Shaoqing;  ZHANG Chunming; CHAI Jianshe
       title: The Nature Event's Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants with Improvements
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1385
      flesch: 80
     summary: PRA 主 要包括自然灾害的危害性分析、脆弱性评估和系统 分析及定量化三部分内容。 1988 年美国核管会 （NRC）要求各核电站对严重事故的易损性进行检 查评价，其中外部事件的单个电厂检查（IPEEE） 推动了自然事件概率风险评价的发展。 1991 年 NUREG-1407 总结出进行 IPEEE 的核电站的外部事 件造成的堆芯损伤频率（CDF）在 10-6-10-4/堆•年的 范围，与内部事件造成的 CDF 在同一量级。我国 1984 年开始研究秦山和大亚湾核电站的概率风险评 价方法，目前国内核电站一级内部事件 PRA 已经基 本完成。外部事件 PRA 的研究自 2008 年初步开 展，在自然灾害的危害性分析和脆弱性评估等方面 亟需与各学科加强合作研究，以补充完善风险评价 方法中的数据和分析方法，推进我国核电站自然灾 害风险评估工作。 核电站自然事件 PRA 属于自然灾害风险分析的 范畴。自然灾害风险分析是对风险区遭受不同强度 自然灾害的可能性及其可能造成的后果进行定量分 析和评估，其能够科学认识自然灾害的孕育、发 生、发展和可能造成的影响，避免防灾减灾行动的 盲目性，是防灾减灾的重要内容之一 [3]。自然灾害 风险分析自联合国 1987 年提出“国际减轻自然灾害 十年”以来得到了进一步的研究发展，其重要内容 包括致灾因子分析、承灾体易损性评价、灾情损失 分析和减灾对策等方面。目前国内已有较为系统地 自然灾害风险评价和风险分析的理论和方法体系[3,4], 但自然灾害风险分析理论和技术发展仍较缓慢 [5]。 基于自然灾害的多因性、系统性和不可预期 性，需要综合多个学科的技术来减轻自然灾害造成 的损失[6]。同时，基于核电站放射性危害的特殊 性，需要结合目前的 PRA 技术和自然灾害风险分析 原理与实践对自然灾害造成的核电站风险进行深入 研究，以减轻可能的放射性后果。因此，本文将回 顾自然灾害风险分析的基本原理和核电站的自然事 件概率风险评价方法，并以地震灾害为例研究两种 风险分析方法的关键技术要素的联系，探讨自然灾 害风险分析的基本原理在核电站自然灾害风险中的 危害性、脆弱性和损失分析方面的借鉴。 2. 自然灾害风险分析的基本原理 脆 弱 性 评 估 （Fragility evaluation）和系统分析及定量化。 4. 自然灾害风险评价方法的联系 核电站自然事件 PRA 属于自然灾害风险分析的 范畴，在研究方法内容上与自然灾害风险分析多有 相似之处。本节以地震 PRA 为例 [9,10]，比较这两种 方法的关键技术要素，探讨关键要素之间的联系。
    keywords: analysis; assessment; atlantis; authors; copyright; nature; nuclear; plants; power; pra; press; risk; ssc
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        item: #191 of 280
          id: jracr-320
      author: Cai, Xudong; Zhang, Hongmei
       title: Coupling Coordinated Development of Ecological Environment and Digital Inclusive Finance in Ecologically Fragile Areas of Western China
        date: 2022-04-15
       words: 4013
      flesch: 33
     summary: To sum up, this paper selects the western ecologically fragile region as the research object, firstly, constructs the relevant index system of ecological environment and digital inclusive finance development level, selects the original data of 12 western provinces, cities and autonomous regions in the last ten years (2011-2020), and uses the pull-out grade method and comprehensive index method to measure the level; secondly, uses the coupled coordination degree model to empirically analyze the coordination of ecological environment and digital inclusive finance development, in order to provide scientific reference for the coordinated development of ecological environment and digital inclusive finance in the western ecologically fragile region. With reference to the above literature, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of ecological environment in western ecologically fragile areas from three perspectives: environmental resources, economic development level, and social development level, as shown in Table 1.
    keywords: coordination; coupling; development; environment; evaluation; finance; level; provinces; western
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        item: #192 of 280
          id: jracr-321
      author: Zhang, Mu; Luo, Qi
       title: A Systematic Literature Review on the Influence Mechanism of Digital Finance on High Quality Economic Development
        date: 2022-04-15
       words: 5567
      flesch: 28
     summary: In a narrow sense, digital financial activities represented by digital payment, online credit, etc. are themselves environmentally-friendly financial services, while in a broader sense, the core of green finance is to internalize the externalities of environmental problems and to balance environmental behaviors that are not paid or compensated through policy Mu Zhang and Qi Luo / Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2022, 12(1), 45-54 DOI: https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v12i1.321 51 guidelines or pricing mechanisms, while digital finance is also a public good with obvious externalities, and its compensation mechanism should and can be aligned with green finance through appropriate arrangements. This core attribute of digital finance can consider the issues of efficiency and equity in economic and social development, which not only contributes to the healthy operation of the economic system, but also helps the whole social enterprise to move forward and develop with high quality.
    keywords: china; development; digital; doi; economic; economy; finance; mechanism; quality development; services; system
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        item: #193 of 280
          id: jracr-322
      author: Wang, Wenyan; Zhang, Hongmei
       title: A Literature Review on the Transmission Mechanism of Innovation and Entrepreneurship for Digital Finance to Effectively Support the High-quality Development of Real-economy
        date: 2022-04-15
       words: 3516
      flesch: 33
     summary: Entrepreneurship plays a mediating role between digital financial development and shared prosperity, which can also moderate the non-linear spillover effects of digital finance [17]. Research on the relationship between digital finance development, financing constraints and green innovation of enterprises[J].
    keywords: development; digital; doi; economy; entrepreneurship; finance; financial; innovation; quality
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        item: #194 of 280
          id: jracr-324
      author: Kahraman, Cengiz
       title: CALL FOR PAPERS-INFUS 2021 Special Issue
        date: 2022-07-10
       words: 410
      flesch: 39
     summary: Digital transformation is the adoption of digital technologies to transform services or businesses, through replacing non-digital or manual processes with digital processes or replacing older digital technology with newer digital technologies. Genetic Programming  Machine Learning  Multi-Agent Systems  Neural Fuzzy Systems  Neural Genetic Systems  Neural Network 
    keywords: fuzzy; sets
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        item: #195 of 280
          id: jracr-325
      author: Menekşe, Akın; Camgöz Akdağ, Hatice
       title: Seismic Risk Analysis of Hospital Buildings: A Novel Interval-Valued Spherical Fuzzy ARAS
        date: 2022-07-10
       words: 6960
      flesch: 62
     summary: Spherical fuzzy sets [4] are one of the recent extensions of ordinary fuzzy sets and provide users the opportunity to express their membership, non-membership, and hesitancy degrees independently, and in a spherical volume. Spherical fuzzy sets and spherical fuzzy TOPSIS method.
    keywords: analysis; aras; criterion; decision; doi; fuzzy; interval; model; risk;  
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        item: #196 of 280
          id: jracr-326
      author: Ahmetoğlu Taşdemir, Funda
       title: Machine Learning Sales Forecasting for Food Supplements in Pandemic Era
        date: 2022-07-10
       words: 4989
      flesch: 60
     summary: [8] compared Holt-Winter’s method and ANN for sales forecasting of two German companies and found slightly better results with ANN. Güven and Şimşir [19] used ANN and SVM for sales forecasting of different products in retail garment sector and according to MSE, both methods yielded good results, with ANN slightly more successful.
    keywords: ann; data; doi; forecasting; learning; mape; methods; model; sales; svm
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        item: #197 of 280
          id: jracr-327
      author: Huang, Yong; Zhang, Hongmei
       title: Research on the Influence of Fintech Development on the Operating Benefit of Banks
        date: 2022-07-10
       words: 2999
      flesch: 43
     summary: Due to the gradual penetration of Fintech enterprises in the supply of financial services such as payment and settlement and the demand for financial services such as Internet wealth management, and more and more banks entering the racing track of Fintech development, banks are Yong Huang and Hongmei Zhang / Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2022, 12(2), 88-94 DOI: https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v12i2.327 90 faced with competition from other financial institutions and emerging fintech companies. So, this paper theoretically analyzes the influence of Fintech on the operating efficiency of banks, and verify it by constructing Fintech development index and establishing a regression model in order to facilitate the digital transformation of banks.
    keywords: analysis; banks; benefit; development; doi; fintech; operating; technology
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        item: #198 of 280
          id: jracr-328
      author: Zhang, Mu; Luo, Yu-tong
       title: A Systematic Literature Review on the Influence Mechanism of Digital Finance on Economic Growth
        date: 2022-07-10
       words: 5998
      flesch: 41
     summary: For micro-entities, digital finance development reduces the financial transaction costs for residents and small, medium, and weak entities. For Society as a Whole, Digital Financial Development Promotes Technological Innovation and Regional Entrepreneurship As a representative of the new financial model, digital finance development provides new opportunities to solve the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises and promote the development of innovation and entrepreneurship (Yin et al., 2019;
    keywords: china; development; digital; doi; economic; economy; finance; growth; impact; innovation; mechanism; research; zhang
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        item: #199 of 280
          id: jracr-329
      author: Pu, Chengyi; Ma, Zihan; Luo, Qi
       title: 2022 Greater China Region Forum on Corporate Social Responsibility and Social Business Day & Academic Annual Meeting of Sichuan Society for Risk Science and Emergency Management Was Held Online
        date: 2022-07-10
       words: 1181
      flesch: 26
     summary: Microsoft Word - Volume 12, Issue 2-5 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2022, 12(2), 106-109 https://jracr.com/ ISSN Print: 2210-8491 ISSN Online: 2210-8505 DOI: https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v12i2.329 106 Communication 2022 Greater China Region Forum on Corporate Social Responsibility and Social Business Day & Academic Annual Meeting of Sichuan Society for Risk Science and Emergency Management Was Held Online Chengyi Pu 1,2,3,*, Zihan Ma 1 and Qi Luo 4,5 1 School of Insurance, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing (100081), China 2 College of Finance and Economics, Tibet University, Lhasa (850014), Tibet, China 3 Sichuan Society for Risk Science and Emergency Management, Chengdu (610041), Sichuan, China 4 School of Big Data Application and Economics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang (550025), Guizhou, China 5 Guizhou Institution for Technology Innovation & Entrepreneurship Investment, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang (550025), Guizhou, China * Correspondence: pucy2011@126.com Received: June 29, 2022; Accepted: July 7, 2022; Published: July 10, 2022 On June 29, 2022, it was co-sponsored by the Sichuan Society for Risk Science and Emergency Management, the key research base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education, China Institute for Actuarial Science, the School of Finance and Economics of Tibet University, the Yunus Center of Zhengzhou University, Harvard Business Review, and the Beijing Center of the University of Hong Kong. They discussed disaster prediction and prevention issues and delivered speeches with the following topics: Introduction to the Spatio- temporal Model Method of Mountain Status Shift Prediction, Introduction to the Inflection Point Deadline Structure of Coronavirus Emergency Risk Management, Basis and Practice of Comprehensive Disaster Reduction Work , Prediction for Natural Peak Years and Peaks of Carbon Emissions in Southwest China, Research on Disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention of Earthquake Landslides in Jiuzhaigou National Geopark, Prevention and Emergency Handling of Underground Engineering Geological Disasters, and Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Flood Earthquakes in Rural Households based on Multidimensional Information Diffusion Model.
    keywords: china; management; risk; social; university
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        item: #200 of 280
          id: jracr-33
      author: Stephane Cartier; Cloe Vallette; Hafida Mediene
       title: Urban Seismomorphoses Seismic Vulnerabilities, an Embarrassing Legacy
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7188
      flesch: 39
     summary: Urban seismic heritage strategies (typical factors) Dilapidation/ Threat Main Vulnerability Building maintenance Financial Rentability Urban Qualification Urban Examples Earthquake Owner Urban seismic heritage strategies Dilapidation/ Threat Main Vulnerability Building maintenance Financial Rentability Urban Qualification Urban Examples Earthquake Owner
    keywords: buildings; city; districts; earthquake; france; heritage; housing; inhabitants; maintenance; manosque; monuments; oran; protection; risk; safety; seismic; vulnerability
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        item: #201 of 280
          id: jracr-332
      author: Li, Wei; Wu, Cheng-shu; Ruan, Su-mei
       title: CUS-RF-Based Credit Card Fraud Detection with Imbalanced Data
        date: 2022-09-30
       words: 7045
      flesch: 53
     summary: Section 2 offers a literature review on data imbalance issue and credit card fraud detection model. However, the ability of fraud detection will be greatly impaired should severe data imbalance exist amid credit card fraud data, so that the model may fail to exert its due performance.
    keywords: card; card fraud; credit; credit card; cus; data; detection; doi; fraud; fraud detection; journal; learning; model; performance; smote
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        item: #202 of 280
          id: jracr-333
      author: Zhou, Zhong-qiang; Wu, Jiajia; Yuan, Sheng
       title: Behavioral Heterogeneity and Excessive Volatility of RMB Exchange Rate
        date: 2022-09-30
       words: 5233
      flesch: 60
     summary: It examines whether investors’ behavioral heterogeneity is related to the excessive volatility of RMB exchange rate. Our analysis of two significant fluctuations in 2015-2016 and 2018-2019 further corroborates our key finding that investors’ behavioral heterogeneity plays an important role in explaining excess volatility of RMB exchange rate.
    keywords: doi; exchange; exchange rate; fundamentalists; model; rate; rmb; rmb exchange
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        item: #203 of 280
          id: jracr-334
      author: Anyika, Emma 
       title: COVID-19 Mental Health Risks - A Critical Survey of Africa
        date: 2022-09-30
       words: 3374
      flesch: 57
     summary: The research critically surveyed COVID-19 mental health risks in Africa. Thus, there is a lack of data on mental health risks due to similar pandemics and their effects on citizens' wellbeing, a factor this research will pursue.
    keywords: anxiety; covid-19; depression; health; levels; pandemic; risk
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        item: #204 of 280
          id: jracr-335
      author: Elgharbawy, Abdallah
       title: Poly Vinyl Chloride Additives and Applications-A Review 
        date: 2022-09-30
       words: 3244
      flesch: 58
     summary: Keywords: Poly Vinyl Chloride; PVC Application; PVC Additives 1. PVC is thermoplastic with a low thermal stability, so the use of PVC polymer is limited in the industry that requires high temperature [5, 6].
    keywords: analysis; applications; chloride; doi; elgharbawy; journal; plasticizers; polyvinyl; pvc
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        item: #205 of 280
          id: jracr-336
      author: Li, Tie-fei; Xu, Wang-jing
       title: The 10th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention Was Successfully Held in Beijing
        date: 2022-10-08
       words: 850
      flesch: 19
     summary: Microsoft Word - °û?Ñ⁄ Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2022, 12(3), 152-154 https://jracr.com/ ISSN Print: 2210-8491 ISSN Online: 2210-8505 DOI: https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v12i3.336 152 Communication The 10th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention Was Successfully Held in Beijing Tie-fei Li 1,* and Wang-jing Xu 2,3 1 Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing (100081), China 2 School of Big Data Application and Economics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang (550025), Guizhou, China 3 Guizhou Institution for Technology Innovation & Entrepreneurship Investment, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang (550025), Guizhou, China * At the same time, this annual conference also organized four sessions on Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk Analysis, Agriculture, Environment and Meteorological Disaster Risk Analysis, Financial Risk Analysis and Comprehensive Disaster Risk Analysis.
    keywords: analysis; china; risk
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        item: #206 of 280
          id: jracr-341
      author: Zha, Hai-feng; Li, Wei
       title: Digital Finance, Fiscal Transparency and Government Debt Risk
        date: 2022-12-31
       words: 7128
      flesch: 44
     summary: Regarding the estimation results of the control variables, the level of economic development and local government debt risk show a negative effect, and the improvement of economic development level contributes to the control of local government debt risks. This paper takes the provincial local government debt risk data from 2011 to 2020 as the research sample to deeply investigate the effect and mechanism of digital finance on local government debt risk.
    keywords: debt; debt risk; development; digital; doi; effect; finance; financial; government; government debt; paper; results; risk; transparency
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        item: #207 of 280
          id: jracr-342
      author: Wang, Shu-xian; Zhang, Tao
       title: Research on the Spatial Effect of Government Science and Technology Expenditure on the Development of Digital Economy
        date: 2022-12-31
       words: 9508
      flesch: 45
     summary: The research results show that: 1) The government science and technology expenditure in all provinces in China has a significant positive spatial correlation with the level of digital economy development; 2) The comparative analysis of different weight matrices show that the impact of local government science and technology expenditure on the level of digital economy development is significant and positive, and there is a certain spatial spillover effect; 3) [16] believe that the impact of digital economy development is heterogeneous.
    keywords: development; development level; digital; economic; economy; economy development; effect; expenditure; government; government science; science; technology; technology expenditure; weight
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        item: #208 of 280
          id: jracr-344
      author: Munangi, Ephias; Sibindi, Athenia Bongani
       title: Fintech, Bigtech Credit and Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Review and Meta Analysis
        date: 2022-12-31
       words: 8535
      flesch: 50
     summary: Cluster Number of items Occurrence 1 (Red) 9 Digital financing, Disintermediation, Financial innovation, financial literacy, financial service, financial stability, Policy, Structure, Systemic risk 2 (Green) 8 Banking, Digital transformation, Efficiency, Internet finance, Investment, Overcapacity, Relationship, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 3 (Blue) 7 Digital finance, Fintech start-up, Happiness, Indonesia, Islamic bank, Performance, Practical implication 4 (Yellow) 6 Bank performance, Bank regulation, Bank stability, credit information sharing, Fintech credit, Income inequality 5 (Purple) 5 Economy, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) market, ETFs, financial market, market 6 (Light Blue) 5 Bank risk, Charter value, Government, p2p lending, risk Figure 4. Failure to access bank credit has been negatively affecting countries’ economic growth due to the limited number of people to participate in economic activities.
    keywords: analysis; authors; bank; bigtech; credit; data; documents; doi; finance; financial; fintech; growth; journal; market; research; review; risk; study; technology
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        item: #209 of 280
          id: jracr-345
      author: Fu, Yi-fan; Zhang, Mu
       title: Summary of Research on Order Financing Decision Optimization and Risk Management
        date: 2022-12-31
       words: 7393
      flesch: 43
     summary: An early warning model of order financing risk based on BP neural network [J]. Research on order financing model independent of core enterprises [J].
    keywords: analysis; business; chain; decision; doi; enterprises; finance; financing; model; order; order financing; research; risk; supply; supply chain
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        item: #210 of 280
          id: jracr-346
      author: Huang, Chong-fu
       title: Book Review of Guide for Travelling in an Uncertain World: What is Risk?
        date: 2022-12-31
       words: 1185
      flesch: 59
     summary: This picture book can help children and their parents become aware of risk, learn the knowledge about risk analysis, and cultivate interests related to the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics behind risk analysis. In recent years, risk analysis has evolved into a science-based powerful tool to assess, communicate, and manage risk across different disciplines, and has infiltrated almost every field of our society.
    keywords: analysis; qiqi; risk
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        item: #211 of 280
          id: jracr-35
      author: Jian Ma; Shaobo Liu; Weili Wang; Peng Lin; Siuming Lo
       title: A GIS-based Micro-simulation Queue Model for Vehicle Evacuation
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5880
      flesch: 56
     summary: The approach of two scanning processes is proposed to model of the congestion and spill-back features of vehicle evacuation at street intersection. Keywords: Evacuation model, Simulation, GIS.
    keywords: capacity; emergency; evacuation; fig; gis; link; model; network; number; queue; simulation; time; traffic; transportation; vehicles
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        item: #212 of 280
          id: jracr-352
      author: Krumov, Krum; Schneider,  Johann F. ; Liu, Jin; Krumova, Albena K.; Widodo, Eko Widodo; Gungov, Alexander  L.; Juhasz, Marta; Garvanova, Magdalena Z.; Kumar, Sanjay; Repaczki, Rita
       title: Cross-cultural Research of the Perceived Risk During the COVID-19 Pandemic
        date: 2023-04-01
       words: 9434
      flesch: 49
     summary: The trend in Asia is exactly the opposite: the high degree of perceived risk dominates – 63.2% (n = 512) vs. the low level of perceived risk – 36.8% (n = 298). Two-Way ANOVA supports the findings regarding the impact of age on perceived risk levels.
    keywords: age; covid-19; cultural; degree; doi; fear; groups; infection; level; pandemic; risk; risk perception; virus
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        item: #213 of 280
          id: jracr-353
      author: Barbosa, Washington; Moreira, Luiz Ricardo; Brito,  Gilson; Haddad, Assed N.; Vidal, Mario  Cesar
       title: The Sociotechnical Construction of Risks, and Principles of the Proactive Approach to Safety
        date: 2023-04-01
       words: 7083
      flesch: 48
     summary: [17] analyzed serious technical accidents over a long period and concluded that approximately 20 to 30% of the causes of accidents were technical, with 70 to 80% involving social, administrative, or managerial factors. The different perceptions of the accident phenomenon are what in current terminology are called accident models.
    keywords: accidents; analysis; barbosa; doi; events; factors; human; journal; management; nuclear; organizations; proactive; risk; safety; systems
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        item: #214 of 280
          id: jracr-354
      author: Ye, Chen
       title: Digital Economy, Science and Technology Innovation and Carbon Emissions - A Dynamic Analysis of PVAR Based on Provincial Panel Data
        date: 2023-04-01
       words: 5918
      flesch: 41
     summary: The results show that: initial development of the digital economy will lead to an increase of carbon emissions, but the effect will be gradually weakened in later stages and become a reverse inhibitory effect; the growth of digital economy development level and the increase of carbon emissions intensity are mutually Granger causative; carbon emissions will inhibit the development of the digital economy in the short term, and will have a significant self-promoting effect; the improvement of science and technology innovation level on the growth of digital economy development level is the driving effect of the improvement of STI level on the growth of digital economy development level is not yet stable. Data Sources and Descriptions The three variables of digital economy development level, science and technology innovation level, and carbon emission are denoted as DEDI, TI and CEI, respectively.
    keywords: carbon; carbon emissions; development; digital; economy; economy development; effect; emissions; innovation; level; science; technology; technology innovation
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        item: #215 of 280
          id: jracr-355
      author: Xu, Su-juan; Zhang, Mu
       title: A Systematic Literature Review on Financial Support for the Development of Strategic Emerging Industries
        date: 2023-04-01
       words: 11743
      flesch: 46
     summary: Financial support strategic emerging industry development path to study [J]. [54] uesd relevant data of 105 listed companies in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in emerging industries, and they found that to improve the development efficiency of financial support industries, technical efficiency and scale efficiency of the industries must be improved at the same time.
    keywords: analysis; capital; companies; development; doi; efficiency; finance; financial; financing; industries; industry; journal; market; policy; research; support; system; zhang
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        item: #216 of 280
          id: jracr-357
      author: Wu, Jia-qi; Zhang, Mu
       title: A Systematic Literature Review of the Empirical Research on the Promoting Mechanism of High-Level Financial Opening to Innovative Development of Manufacturing Industry
        date: 2023-04-01
       words: 7619
      flesch: 43
     summary: Currently, the domestic and foreign studies are mostly based on the characteristics of different financial industries, including the role of opening-up on enterprise innovation and its influence on the bank industry; the effect of foreign direct equity participation on enterprise innovation and its influence on the securities industry; the impact of the host country on the innovation of insured companies and its influence on the insurance industry. [26] show that the opening-up of foreign capital in the banking industry has a significant positive impact on enterprise innovation, a significant positive impact on invention patents and utility model patents, and no significant impact on design patents.
    keywords: development; doi; economics; effect; enterprise; finance; financial; foreign; industry; innovation; insurance; journal; level; manufacturing; mechanism; opening; research; technology
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        item: #217 of 280
          id: jracr-359
      author: Kilic, Huseyin S. ; Canbakis, Sena K.; Karabas, Melike; Koseoglu, Sedef; Unal, Ezgi; Kalender, Zeynep T. 
       title: Integrated Supply Chain Risk Assessment Methodology Based on Modified FMEA
        date: 2023-06-30
       words: 11450
      flesch: 56
     summary: The main purpose of using risk checklists is to provide a quick reference list for risk experts to ensure that all appropriate activities related to risk assessment have been addressed. Decisions are made with organizational competencies and techniques that are appropriate to the requirements of risk assessment.
    keywords: ahp; analysis; assessment; chain; company; crisis; customer; demand; doi; fmea; ifs; journal; literature; process; risk; sub; supplier; supply; table
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        item: #218 of 280
          id: jracr-36
      author: Tianhan Jiang
       title: Assessment Method of Emergency Preparedness System Vulnerability Based on the Complex Network Theory
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1317
      flesch: 72
     summary: Microsoft Word - Assessment Method of Emergency Preparedness System Vulnerability Based on the Complex Network Theory1.doc Assessment Method of Emergency Preparedness System Vulnerability Based on the Complex Network Theory Tianhan Jiang China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Anquan Plaza, 32 Beiyuan Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing100012,China. E-mail:jiangth@chinasafety.ac.cn A novel assessment method of emergency preparedness system vulnerability (EPSV) is established to evaluate the emergency system construction. Keywords: emergency management, emergency incident, emergency preparedness, system vulnerability 基于复杂网络的应急准备系统脆弱性评估方法 江田汉 中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 100012，中国 摘要：建立突发事件应急准备系统脆弱性评估方法，为应急体系建设提供评估工具。选择突发事件应急准 备脆弱性评估指标，建立应急准备系统脆弱性复杂网络，采用简单加权求和方法计算指标得分，最后基于 复杂网络计算突发事件应急准备系统脆弱性，并将该评估指标和方法应用于 3 个实例。结果表明该应急准 备复杂网络较好地描述了突发事件应急准备体系各组成部分之间的关联和耦合关系。该方法可查找突发事 件应急准备能力的薄弱和不足之处，评估应急准备系统结构性的缺陷。该应急准备系统脆弱性复杂网络较 合理、评估方法可行。 关键词：应急管理，突发事件，应急准备，系统脆弱性 1. 引言 应急准备过去被作为应急管理的四个阶段—减灾、 准备、响应、恢复的一个组成部分。“9·11”事件 之后，突发事件应急管理由以应急处置为主向应急 准备为核心转变 [1] 。应急准备被定义为“一系列事 先精心设计的关键任务和行动，以建立、保持和改 进国内各类事件的预防、保护、响应、恢复所必须 的操作能力。应急准备是一个连续的过程，包含各 级政府的努力，政府、私人部门和非政府组织间的 协调行动，以识别危险、确定脆弱性和识别所需要 的资源” [1] 。国家应急准备的周期包括计划、组 织、装备和培训、演练、评估和改进等关键环节
    keywords: assessment; emergency; preparedness; safety; science; system
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        item: #219 of 280
          id: jracr-360
      author: Mamaro, Lenny Phulong; Sibindi, Athenia Bongani
       title: Role of Social Networks in Crowdfunding Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa
        date: 2023-06-30
       words: 9014
      flesch: 51
     summary: A limited number of studies have examined crowdfunding success and market development in the context of a cross-country analysis [14, 69, 88]. However, the crowdfunding industry is characterised by a lower success rate in respect of crowdfunding campaigns [5, 6].
    keywords: analysis; backers; campaign; covid-19; crowdfunding; crowdfunding success; doi; information; journal; networks; pandemic; performance; project; research; social; study; success
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        item: #220 of 280
          id: jracr-361
      author: Wang, Shu-xian
       title: Analysis of the Impact of Corporate Income Tax Incentives on Digital Economy Enterprises
        date: 2023-06-30
       words: 4853
      flesch: 43
     summary: The research results show that corporate income tax incentives have a significant impact on R&D investment of digital economy enterprises and provide a better incentive for digital economy enterprises to increase their R&D investment efforts. The results in column (1) of Table 5 show that there is a negative and significant relationship between corporate income tax incentives and innovation investment of digital economy enterprises, which indicates that reducing the effective corporate income tax rate can stimulate innovation investment of private enterprises, and Hypothesis 2 is confirmed.
    keywords: beijing; development; economy; enterprises; incentives; income; innovation; investment; tax; tax incentives
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        item: #221 of 280
          id: jracr-362
      author: Ye, Chen
       title: A Study on the Impact of Fiscal Pressure on the Deviation of Local Government Budget Revenues
        date: 2023-06-30
       words: 6211
      flesch: 43
     summary: Political incentives, taxation plans and local fiscal revenue budget deviations- -an analysis based on inter-provincial dynamic panel data model[J]. The results show that fiscal pressure has a positive impact on the deviation of local government budget revenues, with the impact of fiscal pressure on the deviation of non-tax revenues significantly higher than that of tax revenues; the positive impact of fiscal pressure on the deviation of local government budget revenues is more obvious in regions with higher reliance on land finance; the proportion of tax revenues in fiscal revenues negatively moderates the impact of fiscal pressure on the deviation of local government budget revenues.
    keywords: analysis; budget; budget revenue; control; degree; deviation; governments; pressure; revenue; tax
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        item: #222 of 280
          id: jracr-38
      author: GANGALAL TULADHAR
       title: DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN NEPAL – POLICY ISSUES AND SOLUTIONS
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3244
      flesch: 43
     summary: The Role of the Focal Agency The Ministry of Home Affairs is the focal agency for disaster management in Nepal which is guided and directed by the Central Disaster Relief Committee headed by the Home Minister in the matters of disaster management. It has its network throughout the country in the form of the Regional Administration Office, District Administration Office and the District Police Office which are the field offices to carry out rescue and relief works during disasters.2 In the capacity of the focal agency, the Ministry carries out various types of public awareness raising programs on disaster management.
    keywords: committee; disaster; disaster management; management; nepal; policy; relief
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        item: #223 of 280
          id: jracr-39
      author: Zhi Zhang; Jianbo You; Qiaoying Li; Xuan Du
       title: Research Framework for Emergency Rescue of Disasters and Crises
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3107
      flesch: 42
     summary: Its tasks are involved: research and judge the situation of emergency rescue in domestic and abroad emergency events; understand the frontier issues of emergency rescue, make the practical strategy for professional forces in emergency rescue; study the inner link among the leading system, coordination mechanism and relative regulations and laws, provide theoretical support in terms of perfecting system and mechanism for professional emergency rescue forces; investigate the key direction, basic layout and components in building emergency rescue forces, the vertical management and horizontal coordinative mechanism in rescue operation, as well as the involved rules, regulations and laws. Emergency rescue is the critical and direct stage in the emergency management process.
    keywords: command; emergency; emergency rescue; events; management; rescue; research; risk; system
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        item: #224 of 280
          id: jracr-40
      author: WU ZONGZHI; ZHANG SHENGZHU
       title: RESEARCH PROGRESS ON RISK ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA OF LONG-DISTANCE OIL AND GAS TRANSPORTATION PIPELINE
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1648
      flesch: 79
     summary: zhangshengzh5168@163.com Abstract For acceptable risk and risk acceptance criteria, concepts and definition methods were proposed. Keywords: long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline, acceptable risk, acceptance criteria, standards 油气长输管道风险接受准则研究进展 吴宗之 张圣柱* 中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 100012 摘要：在对可接受风险和风险接受准则的研究进展进行讨论的基础上，归纳了其概念和界定方法。探讨了 ALARP 原则等风险可接受准则的确定原则，以及各原则的应用现状。分析了油气长输管道与其他工业设 施在风险倾向、风险控制严格程度、环境污染风险，以及管道特有的停输风险等方面存在的差异。讨论了 个人风险、社会风险、财产风险和环境风险的可接受准则确定方法及标准。结合中国实际情况，提出了油 气长输管道的个人风险和社会风险标准。 关键词：油气长输管道，可接受风险，接受准则，标准
    keywords: acceptance; china; criteria; gas; pipeline; press; risk; safety; science
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        item: #225 of 280
          id: jracr-41
      author: Ren Zhang; Hengwan Zou;  Mei Hong; Aixia Zhou; Gang Zeng
       title: Risk Analysis of Water Resources Crisis in the Lancang - Mekong River Drainage Basin under the Background of Climate Change
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1098
      flesch: 80
     summary: Research on index weighting of risk assessment of harmful algal Bloom hazard based on AHP. Risk assessment and regionalization of ocean environment in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.
    keywords: assessment; china; nanjing; press; resources; risk; water
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        item: #226 of 280
          id: jracr-42
      author: Sijian Zhao; Qiao Zhang
       title: Risk Assessment of Crops Induced by Flood in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China on Small Space-and-Time Scales
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2129
      flesch: 84
     summary: 数据收集 本研究收集了三类分析数据：（1）农作物洪涝 灾情数据，（2）农作物种植面积数据和（3）东北 三省气象站点日降雨量数据。 农作物洪涝灾情数据来源于多种渠道，包括中 国气象灾害大典、地方气象局统计资料和地方农业 局统计资料等。灾情数据总量达 1871 条（如表 1 所 示），在时间序列上从 1984 年至 2009 年，空间尺 度上精确到县级，时间尺度上精确到年月日，灾情 统计的数据指标包括了农作物受灾面积（公顷）、 成灾面积（公顷）和绝收面积（公顷）。其中，成 灾面积与绝收面积数据存在严重的缺失，因此在后 续的分析中主要运用受灾面积作为农作物灾情损失 指标。农作物洪涝灾情数据具体格式如表 2 所示。 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 202 Risk Assessment of Crops Induced by Flood in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China on Small Space-and-time Scales 农作物种植面积数据来源“中国农业部县级农 村经济统计数据库”，时间序列上从 1981 年至 2011 年，空间尺度上精确到县级，种植面积单位为 公顷。 气象站点日降雨数据来源“中国气象科学数据 共享服务网”（http://cdc.cma.gov.cn/）。整个东北 三省共设 86 个气象站点（站点分布如图 1 所示）， 降雨量数据在时间序列上是从 1959 年至 2011 年， 在时间尺度上精确到日，单位为 mm。 图 2 示意了县级行政区日降雨量插值过程。假 设待计算的县级行政区中心点为 c ，查找到与该中 心点最近的 3 个气象站点（ 3,2,1, =kmk ），并计算 出中心点与 3 个气象站点的距离（ 3,2,1, =kd k ） 后，县级行政区日降雨量 ci （mm）的
    keywords: assessment; atlantis; china; copyright; flood; press; risk; space
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        item: #227 of 280
          id: jracr-43
      author: Babak A. Samani; Farzad Shahbodaghlou
       title: A Fuzzy Systematic Approach to Construction Risk Analysis
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6186
      flesch: 49
     summary: Secondly, defining fuzzy functions for the project objectives and their relationships with project risks can be done as further research. Project risk categories and risks 7.
    keywords: construction; dematel; influence; management; matrix; method; project; risks
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        item: #228 of 280
          id: jracr-44
      author: Payam Bakhshi; Ali Touran
       title: A New Approach for Contingency Determination in a Portfolio of Construction Projects
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5868
      flesch: 62
     summary: The maximum expected underrun; =ic Minimum expected project i cost which is ibm).1( − ; =α Percent of projects in the historical data having underrun more than or equal to m ; Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 224 =δ Cost overrun/ underrun; =δ Average of cost overruns/underruns in the historical data; =σ Standard deviation of cost overruns/ underruns in the historical data; =β Average rate of cost overrun/ underrun relative to b which is δ+1 ; =ρ Average rate of cost overrun/ underrun relative to c which is )1/( m−β ; =iμ Mean of underlying normal distribution in project i ; =iσ Standard deviation of underlying normal distribution in project i ; =′iμ Mean of hybrid normal distribution in project ;i =′iσ Standard deviation of hybrid normal distribution in project i ; =ϕ A constant coefficient which is equal to ii c/σ′ ; =*ib Revised budget of project i ; =B Sum of all individual initial budgets, ∑ ib ; =η Percent of confidence that individual projects’ cost will not be more than *b ; =*B Sum of all revised individual budgets based on η , ∑ *ib ; =γ Probability that portfolio of projects’ cost will not be more than *B ; Project cost iX is defined as follows: ⎪ ⎩ ⎪ ⎨ ⎧ −=> == =< α α 1)( )( 0)( ii ii ii cXP cXP cXP (1) The Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of project cost which is a truncated normal is: ⎪ ⎪ ⎩ ⎪⎪ ⎨ ⎧ >= ≤= −− ii x i ii cxforexf cxforxf i ii 2 2 2 )( . 2 1 )( )( σ μ σπ α (2) We now assume that project costs are statistically independent and the total actual cost of all projects in the portfolio is T .
    keywords: budget; cost; dataset; distribution; model; new; portfolio; projects
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        item: #229 of 280
          id: jracr-45
      author: Dean Kashiwagi; Jacob Kashiwagi
       title: A New Risk Management Model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 11701
      flesch: 61
     summary: Integrated methodology for project risk management. Use and benefits of tools for project risk management.
    keywords: authors; conditions; construction; contractor; control; expert; journal; kashiwagi; management; model; new; owner; performance; project; project management; project risk; risk; risk management; system; value
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        item: #230 of 280
          id: jracr-46
      author: M. Emre Bayraktar; Cagri Cinkilic; Farrukh Arif
       title: Analysis of Disputes in Transportation Projects
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4050
      flesch: 51
     summary: Responsibility Applicability for the Avoidance of Disputes in Different Construction Stages Lesson FDOT Contractor Permit Site Work Foundation Main Construction Landscaping Others L1 X X X X X X X -- L2 X -- X X X X X -- L3 X -- -- X -- -- -- -- L4 X X X X X X -- -- L5 -- X -- X -- -- -- -- L6 X -- -- -- X X -- -- L7 X -- -- -- X -- -- -- L8 X -- -- -- X -- -- -- L9 X X -- -- X X X -- L10 X -- -- -- -- X -- -- L11 X X -- -- -- X -- -- L12 X -- -- -- X X X X L13 X -- -- -- X X -- -- L14 X -- -- -- X X -- -- L15 -- X -- -- X X X -- L16 -- X -- X X X X -- L17 X -- -- -- X X X -- L18 X -- -- -- -- X -- -- L19 -- X -- -- -- X -- -- L20 X -- -- -- X X X -- L21 X X -- X X X -- -- L22 X -- -- -- -- -- X -- L23 X X X X X X X X L24 X X -- X X X X X Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 220 Analysis of Disputes in Transportation Projects L17. It is found that the DRB process is more successful than any other alternative technique for dispute resolution in construction disputes.
    keywords: construction; disputes; drb; fdot; lessons; projects; transportation; work
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        item: #231 of 280
          id: jracr-47
      author: Huili Hao; Patrick Long; Scott Curtis
       title: Attitudes of Property Owners to Climate Change Considerations and Their Effects on Future Property Values in Coastal Communities
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4199
      flesch: 49
     summary: It is difficult to investigate the representative level of the sample for second home property owners compared to the general second home property owners’ population in Currituck County due to the lack of demographic information from the U.S. Census or other state and local agencies for this widely geographically distributed group of “residents”. Forty-three (43%) percent of the single family housing stock is considered second home property. Fig.
    keywords: climate; county; home; owners; ownership; property; values; weather
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        item: #232 of 280
          id: jracr-48
      author: Vitor Sousa;  Nuno Marques De Almeida; Luís Alves Dias
       title: Risk Management Framework for the Construction Industry According to the ISO 31000:2009 Standard
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7922
      flesch: 32
     summary: ISO 31000:2009, Risk management: Guidelines on principles and implementation of risk management (International Organization for Standardization - ISO, Geneva, Switzerland, 2009). The present paper proposes a risk management framework for the construction industry, taking into due consideration the specificities of construction-related companies and construction projects seeking to integrate risk management within their overall management system.
    keywords: activities; communication; construction; construction project; framework; implementation; industry; iso; level; management; management framework; organization; processes; project; risk; risk management
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        item: #233 of 280
          id: jracr-49
      author: Bubbico, Roberto
       title: Efficient Applications of Risk Analysis in the Chemical Industry and Emergency Response
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4674
      flesch: 48
     summary: M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, “Uncertainties in risk analysis: six levels of treatment”, Reliability engineering and systems safe- ty, 54, 95-111, 1996 14. R. Bubbico, S. Di Cave, and B. Mazza- rotta, “Risk analysis for road and rail transport of hazardous materials: a simpli- fied approach”, J. of Loss Prevention in the Proc Ind., Vol 17/6, pp.
    keywords: accident; analysis; chemical; information; risk; risk analysis; road; route; transportation
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        item: #234 of 280
          id: jracr-50
      author: Lingguang Song; Sang-Hoon Lee; Fitria H. Rachmat
       title: Stochastic Look-ahead Scheduling Method for Linear Construction Projects
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5149
      flesch: 47
     summary: Keywords: linear construction projects, linear scheduling, simulation, pipeline construction. This research introduces LSM integrated with real-world performance data and computer simulation as an alternative tool for look- ahead scheduling in linear construction projects.
    keywords: activity; construction; data; linear; look; performance; productivity; project; scheduling; time
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        item: #235 of 280
          id: jracr-51
      author: Huang, Chongfu; Huang, Gordon
       title: Introduction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 650
      flesch: 38
     summary: Other four papers, two contributions in English and two contributions in Chinese with English abstracts, can be divided into four topics: fire risk assessment, risk decision making, earthquake risk analysis, and credit risk analysis. There is one paper in credit risk analysis.
    keywords: analysis; credit; risk
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        item: #236 of 280
          id: jracr-52
      author: KOZAK, ANDRZEJ
       title: Risk Management in Process Industry – Practical Approach in Poland
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2143
      flesch: 50
     summary: The purpose of this study is not to demonstrate the advantages of the various techniques of risk analysis, but to give guidance regarding the most common weak points of various techniques and the most common difficulties associated with risk management in the installation life cycle. During the next stage, the Design Stage which is a comprehensive, both qualitative and quantitative, risk analysis should be performed.
    keywords: analysis; inspection; management; plant; risk; stage
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        item: #237 of 280
          id: jracr-53
      author: Yu, Jike; Zhou, Zongfang
       title: The Errors Estimate of the Multistage Combined Investment Risk Assessment
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1809
      flesch: 43
     summary: Keywords: investment risk; errors estimate; simple average models; MCIRA models. CorollaryCorollaryCorollaryCorollary 2:2:2:2: If µ is any nonnegative weight vector, then i) max(n) JμEμJ <′= (10) ii) max n i iA JJn J ≤< ∑ =1 1 (11) Form the above results, we know that the errors square sum of the general MCIRA model doesn’t exceed the maximum of errors square sum of each model in the combination.
    keywords: assessment; errors; model; risk
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        item: #238 of 280
          id: jracr-54
      author: Huang, Chongfu
       title: Internet of Intelligences in Risk Analysis for Online Services
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1476
      flesch: 82
     summary: 智联网概念 “智联网”(Internet of Intelligences)，是由各种 智能体，通过互联网形成的一个巨大网络。其目的 是集小智慧为大智慧，群策群力，帮助人们更好地 认识世界，获得更好的生活质量。 本文首次提出的“智联网”，将是继人工智能 和计算智能之后的智能科学大革命，同时也将推动 世界信息产业再上一个新台阶。智联网的基础是互 联网，智联网的核心技术是信息扩散的数据处理， 智联网的发展动力是有偿智能服务。 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 1, No. 2 (November 2011), 110-117 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 110 与传统咨询服务业 大的不同是，提供智联网 服务的不再限于专家。对某些实际问题，民众的经 验可能强于专家的知识。对于巨大系统的复杂问 题，专家群体的意见往往强于个别权威的判断。通 过“智联网”获得尽可能正确的明智选择，将成为 人们日常生活中的重要助手。 设 A={a1,a2,…,an}是含有的 n 个智能体 a1,a2,…,an（例如某大学的 n 个教授）的一个集合。 设 N={S,c1,c2,…,cn}是含有服务器 S 和 n 台计算机网 络终端 c1,c2,…,cn 的，一个可以独立工作的子系统， 例如一个局域网。设 M 是处理 n 个智能体所提供的 信息的模型。三元体（A, N, M）称为一个智联网。 假定存在某一准则 R，可以判定 ai，i=1,2,…n, 的智力水平，记为 qi=R(ai)。假定 R 还能判定三元体 （A, N, M）的智力水平，记为 Q=R(A, N, M)。当 Q>max{q1,q2,…,qn}时，我们称其为一个正向智联 网。 我们可以举例来说明什么是智联网，什么是正 向智联网。三人团队 A={张三，李四，王五}参加过 传统智力竞赛，即，现场抢答，依标准答案现场判 分。接下来，张三，李四，王五改为各使用一台由 服务器 S 管理的网络 N 参赛，其他参赛队仍沿袭现 场抢答方式。假定我们设计出了某种可以实时处理 A 队所提供信息的模型 M，并依据处理结果回答问 题。由参赛队 A，计算机网络 N 和信息处理模型 M 组成的系统是一个智联网。假定在以往参赛中 高 智力者为张三，称为 M）中的 A 和 N 已经没有什么 问题，关键在于 M。 传统的信息处理模型，大多假定其处理的数据 信息是基本可靠的，协调性较好的，关注的是信息 中的模式，例如各种函数关系。 智联网中的 M 则完全不同，面对的可能是恶意 假信息，还有客观存在的不协调性，其次才是有效 信息的处理，并且信息永远不完备。因此，智联网 中的关键技术，其实就是解决上述问题的技术。 恶意假信息识别技术 设 xi 是来自于智联网（A, N, M）中智能体 ai 的 信息，如何判定它是恶意假信息？ 简单的技术是 离差技术。设样本 X={x1, x2, …, xN}的中心点是 x0， 如果 xi 与 x0 的距离超过其它点与 x0 平均距离一定倍 数，则判定它是恶意假信息。 关键的问题还在于样本点的全面量化以及缺失项 的处理，涉及不完备信息，需用到信息扩散技术。 不协调信息识别技术 如果 X={x1, x2, …, xn}中有大量的不协调信息， 则是智能体间不同看法的正常反映。用模型自动找 出相对协调的子集，并形成新的样本供更高一个层 次的模型学习，是解决此问题的较好策略。扩散型 人工神经元网络[7]已经提供了这方面的技术。 不完备信息处理技术 当 X={x1, x2, …, xn}是可以直接使用的信息时， 由于智联网成本的控制，n 是一个较有限的整数， 相应的信息 X 源是不完备的。无论是用其估计概率 分布还是识别因素间的关系，均是小样本问题，须 用信息扩散技术处理。 以信息扩散原理为基础，人们已经建立了五个 实用的分析模型： （1）用信息分配方法计算软直方图，比传统直方图 的估计效率提高 28%； （2）自学习离散回归模型，可以直接从给定的样本 生成表达输入输出关系的模糊关系矩阵； （3）基于正态扩散函数的一种混合型人工神经元网 络，有效地解决矛盾样本的学习问题； （4）以历史灾情资料为依据的农业自然灾害风险评 估模型，计算以县市为区域的自然灾害风险水平； （5）计算模糊风险的内集—外集模型，不仅可以替 代专家依据给出的样本进行模糊概率估计，而且实 践证明，用这一模型计算出来的自然灾害模糊风险 能对减灾方案进行合理的筛选。 上述模型经过一定的改造就可用于智联网，只 不过是将自然灾害的数据改为来自智联网的数据。 尤其是自学习离散回归模型，非常适合于无人操作 的系统大量处理数据。 5.
    keywords: atlantis; authors; beijing; copyright; information; press; risk
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        item: #239 of 280
          id: jracr-55
      author: Yin, Jingyuan;  Gao, Haiyan; Pei, Wei
       title: A Study on Food Safety Risk Analysis under the Condition of Traditional Agriculture
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1160
      flesch: 71
     summary: 上海大学生命学院，上海 200444 摘要：随着经济的不断发展，食品安全的问题会越来越引起人们的关注。作为食品安全管理链条的最前 端 － 农业生产环节，其与现代经济社会发展的融合度是体现我国食品安全状况好坏的一个重要特征指标。而从 食品安全风险分析的角度来看，传统农业条件下进行此项工作的最大问题在于，其整个生产销售过程与现代社 会的信息化管理格格不入，由于种种原因，人们很难真实有效地获取各类种植养殖数据，这给食品安全的风险 评估与监管工作带来了巨大的困难。而解决这一困难的前题是加大农业投入，切实提高我国农业生产人员的素 质，尽快改变传统农业条件下的一些落后生产加工模式，加速农村信息化建设步伐。同时借鉴国外发达国家的 先进经验，建立完善与之相关的食品安全法律法规体系。 关键词：传统农业，食品安全，风险分析 1. 引言 随着工业化的进程和科技的进步，国际食品安 全事件不断发生，1999 年比利时的“二恶英事件” 事件爆发之后，食品安全问题愈演愈烈，成为世界 各国关注的焦点。如何保证食品的安全，维护消费 者权利，促进食品贸易健康发展，是摆在各国面前 必须思考解决的问题。过去食品安全的管理是以对 不安全食品的立法、清除市场上的不安全食品和责 任部门的认可等项目的实施为基础的。然而，这些 传统的管理方法由于缺乏预防性手段，因此对食品 安全现行存在及可能出现的危害不能做出及时的应 答。 风险分析是近 20 年发展起来的一种解决食品安 全问题的手段，可为食品安全决策提供系统和规范 的科学数据。随着食品问题的不断复杂和多样，传 统的监管方式表现出了极大的效果和效率方面的无 能。而风险分析这种监管方式由于能够最有效地将 风险控制在萌芽状态，因此，起到了很好地预防食 品安全风险的作用[1]。食品风险分析代表了现代科 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 1, No. 2 (November 2011), 118-125 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 118 学技术最新成果在食品安全管理方面实际应用的发 展方向，已经成为世界各国普遍遵循的规则，是制 定食品安全标准和解决国际食品贸易争端的重要依 据。 农业是食品的基础，而中国是一个农业历史悠 久的国家，农业在整个国民经济中占有重要的地 位。食品安全问题的发生与农业生产条件有着很大 的关系，我国目前的农业在很大程度上还是传统 的、原始的小农小本耕作经营，高成本、低效率是 它的显著特征，整个农业生产无序又疏于管理，科 技含量和知识含量很低，农业产业基础非常薄弱， 与发达国家相比，农业的落后程度远远超过其他行 业。我国人口众多，农业资源紧缺，农业发展受到 很大的资源制约，加上长期以来实行高度集中的计 划经济体制，商品经济没有得到充分发展，这些特 殊的国情，决定了我国未来农业发展必须走一条适 合中国国情的、具有中国特色的、又能与国际接轨 的农村改革和发展道路。 2. 食品安全风险分析的基本原理 食品安全风险分析始于20 世纪80 年代末，最先 应用于航天食品。1998 年在罗马召开的FAO/WHO 联合专家咨询会上，形成了《风险情况交流在食品 标准和安全问题上的应用》的报告，标志着食品安 全风险分析的理论框架已经形成。如图1所示[2]，食 品安全风险分析包括风险评估、风险管理和风险交 流这3 个互为前提、相互作用的部分。这3 个部分形 成了一个科学的管理框架，其基本原理如下。 图 l 食品安全风险分析各部分之间的关系 风险分析是指对食品中可能存在的危害进行预 测，并在此基础上采取规避或降低危害影响的措 施，包括风险评估、风险管理和风险交流三个部 分。 风险评估是以科学为基础对食品可能存在的危 害进行界定，特征描述，暴露评估和描述的过程。 具体说就是通过现有的资料包括毒理学数据、污染 物残留数据、统计手段、暴露量及相关参数的评估 等系统的、科学的步骤，对食品中生物、化学或物 理因素对人体健康产生的不良后果进行识别、确认 和定量，决定某种食品有害物质的风险。它为风险 管理提供依据，其实施主体是食品科学、卫生学、 毒理学等方面的科学家。 风险管理是根据风险评估的结果，对公平贸易 的影响程度进行评估，选择和实施适当的管理措 施，尽可能有效地控制食品的风险，从而保障大众 的健康。其目标是选择措施，把食品风险降低到可 接受的水平，风险管理的实施主体是政府，政府主 要通过制定食品中有害物质或微生物的最高限量、 卫生标准、食品标签标准、食品法律法规，以及采 取公众食品安全教育等措施，保障公众健康。一般 包括风险评价、风险管理政策评估、执行管理决定 以及监控和审查几个过程。 风险交流是指在食品安全科学工作者、管理 者、生产者、消费者以及感兴趣的团体之间进行风 险评估结果、管理决策基础意见和见解传递及交换 的过程。这样通过公开、透明的信息交流，使各方 全面了解影响食品安全的各种危害、危害的特征、 危害的严重程度、危害的变化趋势、最高风险人 群、风险人群的特点和规模、风险人群对风险的接 受程度、风险人群的利益等信息。风险交流在于使 社会公众，尤其是广大消费者参与到食品安全管理 中去，促进政府综合考虑各种信息，提高决策的透 明度和科学性，制定更加合理的食品安全政策，将 食源性风险减少到最低限度，实现食品安全水平的 不断提高。风险交流的目标就是确保将所有关于有 效风险管理的信息和意见考虑进决策过程中[3 ，4，5， 6] 。 3. H7 、二恶 英、多氯联苯、丙烯酰氨等的系统研究[13]，已经形 成了化学危害物、微生物、真菌毒素等风险分析指 南和程序。当前风险评估技术已发展到能够对多种 危害物同时形成的复合效应进行评估，并且更加注 重随机暴露量的评估。另外，国际社会对转基因食 品(GMO)的安全性评价问题也形成了评价原则和程 序， 以美国、德国、日本等 3 种农业现代化道路国 家情况为例，可看出风险分析在各发达国家的应用 情况和特点。 4.1风险评估机构独立，与风险管理职能分工明确。 美国的食品安全风险分析由卫生部食品药品管 理局(FDA)、农业部(USDA)、环境保护署、海关与 边境保护局等按照各自的职能，实行共同监管， USDA 负责肉类和禽类等食品的管理，监督食品安 全法规的执行。卫生部食品药品管理局(FDA)负责其 他类食品和进口食品的管理，制订相关法规和最高 残留限量(MRLs)等食品安全标准。此种多机构联合 监管的模式体现在联邦政府、州和地方等层面，可 开展纵向的风险分析，也可跨机构进行横向合作。 早在 1997 年 5 月，美国就成立了风险评估联盟，旨 在协调风险评估，交流信息，促进食品特别是动物 源食品的风险评估和科学研究。 2002 年 11 月，依据《消费者健康保护和食品 安全重组法案》，德国联邦消费者保护、食品与农 业部设立了联邦风险评估研究所和联邦消费者保护 与食品安全局。其中，联邦风险评估研究所负责风 险评估和风险交流；联邦消费者保护与食品安全局 负责风险管理及与联邦、其他国家及欧盟机构的协 调。联邦风险评估研究所下设 7 个部门，每个部门 下设工作组或实验中心，负责本领域内风险评估的 相关工作，通过各部门的明确分工与相互协作，联 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 121 邦风险评估研究所可完成对食品中生物与化学的风 险评估，并以风险评估结果为基础提出降低风险的 管理选项，为联邦政府部门和其他风险管理机构提 供建议。 2003 年 7 月 1 日，依据《食品安全基本法》， 日本成立了食品安全委员会，专门从事食品安全风 险评估和风险交流工作。该委员会由 7 名食品安全 专家组成，委员全部为民间专家，经国会批准，由 首相任命，任期 3 年。委员会下设事务局和专门调 查会，事务局负责日常工作，专门调查会负责专项 案件的检查评估。食品安全委员会的主要职责是实 施食品安全风险评估；对风险管理部门进行政策指 导与监督；负责风险信息的沟通与公开。从发达国 家的经验来看，独立的风险评估确保了食品安全立 法与标准制定的科学性，为有效的风险管理提供了 依据[14 ，15] 。 4.2 风险管理较为有效 在管理思想上，各发达国家一改过去基于事后 处置的管理体系，转为进行事前干预的有效管理。 另外从政策效率角度出发，让生产者承担生产安全 食品的主要责任，让政府实行有效的监督，为政府 的管理节约了大量的人力、物力与财力。 在管理体制上，国际食品安全管理体制的核心 是加强食品安全管理各部门之间的协调。为此大多 数国家改变了原先按食品品种或按生产阶段来划分 监管部门的职能的分割式体制，将原有的食品安全 管理部门统一到一个独立的食品安全机构，如加拿 大、德国、丹麦和澳大利亚等国家。由于分割式体 制转变为统一式体制的运作成本较高，因此，也有 许多国家食品安全管理机构依然分布在不同部门， 但通过明确分工来协调实现食品安全，比如美国和 日本。 在管理手段上，发达国家更多的是鼓励企业进 行自我质量管理。食品加工企业进行自我质量管理 的主要手段有良好生产规范（GMP）、良好卫生规 范(GHP)、危害分析与关键控制点(HACCP)。其中， GMP 和 GHP 是
    keywords: atlantis; authors; copyright; food; haccp; press; risk; safety; shanghai
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        item: #240 of 280
          id: jracr-56
      author: Wang, Jinghong
       title: Dynamics of urban fire correlations with detrended fluctuation analysis
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1216
      flesch: 30
     summary: Dynamics of urban fire correlations with detrended fluctuation analysis Jinghong Wang 1,2 1 State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China, arain@mail.ustc.edu.cn 2 USTC-CityU Joint Advanced Research Centre (Suzhou), Suzhou 215123, China Abstract To explore and understand the intrinsic dynamic mechanisms of urban fire system is an important prerequisite for the fire risk analysis and management. It is found that the time series of direct economic loss caused by urban fires presents stable anti-power law correlations, while the time interval series of urban fire occurrence presents persistent long-range power-law correlations with two scaling exponents.
    keywords: analysis; atlantis; authors; copyright; fire; fluctuation; phys; press
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        item: #241 of 280
          id: jracr-57
      author: Wang, Wei; Zhou, Chao; Du, Xin
       title: The Research of a Hail Risk Evaluation under Imperfect Information
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2181
      flesch: 83
     summary: the authors 133 2．冰雹灾害的风险识别 2.1 冰雹灾害的风险成因和风险因素识别 2.1.1 冰雹灾害的风险成因和致灾因子 冰雹是强对流性天气引起的一种剧烈的 气象灾害。一般情况下，冰雹灾害发生的范围 较小、时间较短，但是它由于具有发生突然、 损失强度大的特性，成为严重气象灾害之一。 冰雹灾害的主要风险源是雷暴云中降落 的冰雹颗粒。所以冰雹灾害的风险大小同冰雹 的粒径大小有关。然而，冰雹的粒径大小又同 冰雹的成雹机制密切相关。因为，冰雹形成于 一种同时具有上升气流与下沉气流的有组织 的积雨云中。在这种积雨云中，强烈的上升气 流不仅给雹云输送了充分的水汽，而且支撑着 冰雹粒子在云中的滞留。当冰雹颗粒生长到相 当大程度，上升气流无法支撑冰雹重量时，冰 雹颗粒就会从空中坠落，最后在地面形成了降 雹。因此，冰雹粒径的大小决定于积雨云中上 升气流大小和温度层结等气象条件。 在气象学中，冰雹的严重程度，有时也用 物体的大小来形容。例如，小如绿豆、黄豆， 大似栗子、鸡蛋等形象化词语表示冰雹的形 态。除使用形态分类方法描述冰雹的严重度 外，也可以用定量方法划分降雹的严重度。大 致上，气象学中将降雹分成软雹和冰雹。软雹 的尺寸是 2~5mm，冰雹尺寸大于 5mm。也有 根据冰雹的直径分为三级：（1）轻雹：多数冰 雹直径不超过 0.5cm；（2）中雹：多数冰雹直 径 0.5～2.0cm；（3）重雹：多数冰雹直径 2.0cm 以上。 总之，冰雹危害程度取决于冰雹尺度大 小、冰雹持续时间、冰雹发生频率、冰雹覆盖 区域面积等因素。 在模拟计算中，冰雹对玻璃撞击所造成的 损害主要取决于撞击的冲量。这个冲量一般包 括两部分：冰雹降落产生的竖直冲量和冰雹相 对承灾体的水平冲量。 根据冰雹降落到地面时的末速度计算公 式，将冰雹的各个物理常量代入公式，可以等 到简化后的计算公式： D C gD V Da i 7.156 3 4 2 1             （12） 式中，  V 是冰雹末速度（m/s），D 是冰雹的 直径（m）。 同样，冰雹的质量（千克）也可以简化 为： 33 5.221 12 DDm
    keywords: ansys; atlantis; authors; copyright; hail; press; risk
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        item: #242 of 280
          id: jracr-58
      author: Li, Yunfei; Zhou, Zongfang
       title: Research on Model for Evaluating Risks of Venture Capital Projects
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2849
      flesch: 100
     summary: 1 2 6( , , , )w w w w      ， 1 2 6( , , , )w w w w      ，取 6 6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 , j j ij ij i i k m a a     j j ij ij i i r r r r r j         (10) 不确定多属性决策方法的实质是利用已有的决 策信息通过一定的方式对一组（有限个）备选方案 进行排序并择优。在处理风险投资项目风险评价问 题时，用区间数表示指标值较为合理，因此，可以 建立指标权重未知且指标值为区间数的不确定多属 性决策模型对多个风险投资项目的风险进行排序。 由规范化矩阵 6( )ij sR r   、指标权重向量 1 2 6( , , , )
    keywords: w w;  ;  
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        item: #243 of 280
          id: jracr-59
      author: Cao, Yonghong
       title: Environmental Risk Discrimination and Assessment for Municipal Solid Waste Secure Landfill Site
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 843
      flesch: 79
     summary: 城市垃圾安全填埋场的风险因素识别 垃圾填埋场的风险类型按照不同的分类标准可 以有多种。按风险定义的内涵可以分为广义风险与 狭义风险。按风险诱发因素可以分为人为风险、设 备风险以及自然风险。按风险类别可以分为水环境 风险、大气环境风险、垃圾堆体滑动风险等。而这 些风险又存在着必然的联系，人为风险、设备风险 以及自然风险是诱因，水环境风险、大气环境风 险、垃圾堆体滑动风险是结果。人为风险与设备风 险属于事故风险范畴，而自然风险属于潜在风险范 畴。各种风险之间的联系见图1。 2.1 广义风险与狭义风险 广义风险是指凡是对生态系统或者是人体健康 造成威胁的所有污染事件，无论大小都统称为风 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 150 险。按风险发生的机制又可以为分常规风险、事故 风险与潜在风险[6]。狭义风险是指具有一定发生概 率的，一旦发生会造成生态系统、人员伤害的，或 者造成一定经济损失的环境事件，特指广义风险中 的事故风险以及潜在风险。 2.1.1 常规风险 常规风险是指垃圾填埋场各种设施在正常运行 时，向环境排放的有害物质。例如运输与填埋机械 作业时发出的噪音，运输、倾倒、碾压、平整垃圾 M：安全管理指数，主要反映管理者和操作者素质 的高低，对职工的安全教育状况和日常安全管 理状况； B：殉爆指数：是指爆炸时引起一定距离外另一爆炸 的发生，在填埋场指一填埋单元发生事故后能 否引起另一单元事故的发生； 区域自然灾害风险指数 D 由各自然灾害发生概 率与可能性共同决定，其大小由下式计算， 4/)( LSLEQFD  其中： F：区域洪水风险指数，是指区域洪水对填埋场风险 发生的影响，根据洪水发生的概率与可能性确 定； EQ：区域地震风险指数，根据地震裂度级别与地震 发生的可能性确定； L：滑坡风险指数，填埋区周围山体滑坡对填埋场风 险发生的影响，根据滑坡发生的概率确定； LS：雷击风险指数，指雷击事件对填埋场发生爆炸 风险的影响，根据雷击事件发生的概率确定。 SO、E 以及 R、D 指数计算过程中的指标、标 准应参考各种相关资料并向专家咨询而得到。 3.2 事故发生后污染物影响范围与浓度预测 垃圾场发生的污染风险中，大气事故风险主要 表现为爆炸，为瞬时性事件；而水环境污染事故风 险影响范围大、影响时间长，所以对风险事故影响 范围与浓度的预测，应主要集中在对水污染事故的 预测与评估上，包括对地下水和地表水的污染预测 与评估。 3.2.1对地下水的影响范围与污染物浓度预测 当垃圾场底部防渗层破损失效时，垃圾渗滤液 就会经过包气带进入含水层。污染物在岩土层中， 会产生对流和弥散、机械过滤、吸附和解析、化学 反应、沉淀和溶解、降解和转化等一系列复杂的物 理、化学、水文地球化学和生物作用。因此，对地 下水影响范围与浓度的预测，除了要考虑渗滤液的 化学成分、浓度、以及入渗条件之外，还要考虑包 气带的地质结构、岩土成分、厚度、饱和和非饱和 渗透性能和对污染物的吸附滞留能力等因素的影 响，因此需要根据渗滤液的特点以及当地的自然条 件，而建立复杂的预测模式。为了反应一般情况下 的普遍规律，我们需要设立一些假设条件，从而建 立起理想状态下的一般预测模型。 （1）下游某点处的污染物浓度预测 假设地下含水层为各向同性的均匀孔隙介质， 污染物在固相上吸附遵从 Henry 吸附平衡关系，污 染物的降解或衰变常数为 0，即污染物是守恒的。 污染物在下游某一点处浓度 C 可按下式求得：   t dtCfC 0 1 )()(  式中： f( )： 时刻源的释放率； C1（t- ）：在（t- ）时刻，下游某点处的浓度； (2）污染物的渗透速度 对于非饱和及饱和状态流场，可以采用统一的达 西定律。 i iji X h kq    式中， iq ：渗透速度； kij：渗透系数张量； h：水头。 3.2.2 地表水的影响范围与浓度预测 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 153 当垃圾渗滤液进入到地表水体以后，污染物的 浓度会随着时间和空间的推移而逐渐降低，即发生 了水体的自净作用，自净作用的机制可以分为物理 自净、化学自净和生物自净三类，它们往往是同时 发生而又相互影响。上述各种过程要受到受纳水体 的大小、水量、水速、水质等一系列水文特征的影 响。因此，进入到河流、湖泊、海洋等不同的水体 中，要采用不同的预测模式，下面以污染物排入均 匀恒定的河流为例，说明对地表水影响范围与浓度 预测的方法。 （1）持久性污染物的浓度预测 当持久性污染物随垃圾渗滤液排入均匀恒定的 河流后，经过混合过程段到达充分混合段时，污染 物的浓度可按河流完全混合模式求得： C＝（CpQp+ChQh）/(Qp+Qh) 其中： Ch：河流上游污染物浓度，mg/L； Cp：污染物排放浓度，mg/L； Qp：废水排放量，m 3/s； Qh：河流流量，m 3/s。 （2）河流一维稳态混合衰减模式 当在平直河流稳态排入非持久性污染物时，污 染物的浓度可采用 S-P 模式估算： ) 86400 exp( 10 u x Kcc  式中： C0：：计算初始断面污染物浓度，mg/L； u ：河流断面平均流速，m/s； K1：衰减系数； X：衰减距离。 4.
    keywords: atlantis; copyright; landfill; press; risk; site; waste
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        item: #244 of 280
          id: jracr-60
      author: Lv, Chen; Li, Xiaoyan
       title: Reconstruction: Key to Social Responsibility Risk Assessment for Tourism Investment Projects
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6960
      flesch: 43
     summary: Current research on investment risks mainly focuses on the economic ones, while social responsibility risk is far less dis- cussed. Domestic evaluation of social responsibility risk is mainly based on the perspective of enterprises rather than the B&R large- scale tourism investment abroad.
    keywords: assessment; china; chinese; development; environment; investment; investment projects; iso; management; project; responsibility; responsibility risk; rights; risk; scale; scale tourism; social; tourism; tourism investment; weight
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        item: #245 of 280
          id: jracr-61
      author: Jing, Guo; Pan, Xiaojun; Pu, Chengyi
       title: Analysis of Long-term Care Insurance Demand of Megalopolis in China under the Background of Aging of Population—Take Shanghai as an Example
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8645
      flesch: 59
     summary: According to the data compiled from the Shanghai Sixth Census Bulletin, the disability rates of the 60–80-year-olds in Shanghai are 5.0275%, 14.8139%, and 32.7914%, the severe aging trend has promoted the demand for elderly care. Judging from the current development of the pension system in China, although the elderly, the disabled, and the need for care for diseases are extremely high, there is no directly compatible policy system and corresponding insurance products, the supporting facil- ities for elderly care need to be resolved urgently.
    keywords: care; care insurance; china; consumption; e e; health; insurance; ltci; number; people; population; shanghai; term; term care; years
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        item: #246 of 280
          id: jracr-62
      author: Xue, Siwen; Zhou, Qi
       title: A Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Risk Response Perception Paths between Northern and Southern Shaanxi
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8129
      flesch: 48
     summary: Table 3 | Correlation coefficient matrix of climate change risk perception in northern Shaanxi Index Understanding the reasons of climate change Coping situation Scenic beauty perception Environmental stability awareness Living environment −0.035 0.07 0.435** 0.062 Risk concept 0.01 0.075 0.238** 0.174** Concern about climate change 0.149** 0.245 Instead, concern degree for climate change issues and climate change reason perception influence the causal path of climate change risk perception [36].
    keywords: adaptation; analysis; change issues; change risk; climate change; concern; degree; environment; factors; issues; model; path; perception; perception path; public; response perception; risk; risk perception; risk response; shaanxi
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        item: #247 of 280
          id: jracr-63
      author: Xue, Siwen; Zhou, Qi
       title: Research on Information Channel of Climate Change Risk Perception of Shaanxi People
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6299
      flesch: 42
     summary: The above-mentioned researches on the information paths of climate change risk perception have focused on the influence of information on climate change risk perception and on the theo- retical level of climate change risk perception channel, but there are few researches on the internal mechanism and specific path or information channel of climate change risk perception. As scholars continue to deepen their research on climate change risk perception [6], climate change that attracts worldwide concern has gradually transformed into a scientific topic concerning the public.
    keywords: change; change risk; channels; climate; climate change; information; model; network; notification; path; people; perception; public; risk perception; risks; shaanxi
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        item: #248 of 280
          id: jracr-64
      author: Jiali Feng; Tao Sheng
       title: A Risk Assessment Model Based On Attribute Theory
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2834
      flesch: 59
     summary: To fight inflation, it is important to understand the effects of changes in interest rates, which is itself a complicate issue. In principle, these 5 main parties each directly play a role in the changes of interest rate, and, at the same time, affect each other.
    keywords: attribute; category; economy; government; inflation; interest; rate
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        item: #249 of 280
          id: jracr-65
      author: Lijun Cheng; Yongsheng Ding; K. Khorasani; Yunxiang Chen; Wei Wang
       title: An Operational Drought Risk Management Framework Based on stream-flow Intelligent Internet control
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6830
      flesch: 53
     summary: drought risk management based on dynamic stream-flow (2) Remote real-time data collection (1) Analyze study basin, set mainstreaming monitor points (control sections) (4) Backend information platform (5)The development of scheduling schemes (3) Network Communications (iv) The remote collaborative control of reservoirs (i) Stream-flow forecasting (ii) Drought risk index (iii) Drought warning level Sensors information and communication Drought control activities Observation objectives setting Drought event identification Drought risk assessment Drought risk response Drought management monitoring Part 3. drought risk management based on dynamic stream-flow Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 36 Rongfang Li et al. uncontrolled long-term drought, policies and procedures need be established and implemented to help ensure the risk responses for an effective execution. (vii) Drought management monitoring – When the system performs the reservoirs dispatching water scheduling schemes, the sensors can monitor in real- time all the monitoring points of the water variance until each monitoring point satisfies the minimum required water, so that the reservoirs drainage action will then stop.
    keywords: control; data; drought; drought management; drought risk; flow; framework; index; information; management; reservoir; risk; risk management; sections; stream; system; time; water
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        item: #250 of 280
          id: jracr-66
      author: Zongzhi Wu; Shengzhu Zhang; Mingrong Zeng
       title: Analytical Research On The Accident Risk In Three Industries Of China And USA In The Period Of 2006-2010
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1839
      flesch: 75
     summary: Research Group of Institute of Industrial Economics CASS, A study on the adjustments and upgrades to China’s industrial structure during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China Industrial Economics (1) (2010): 5-23. 中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组, “十二五”时 期工业结构调整和优化升级研究, 中国工业经济, (1) (2010): 5-23. 7. Y. N. Li, The relationship between economic reforms, economic growth and industrial structure adjustment, The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, (12) (1988): 3-9. 厉以宁, 经济改革、经济增长与产业结构调整之间的 关系, 数量经济技术经济研究, (12) (1988): 3-9. 8.
    keywords: accident; china; industrial; press; safety
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        item: #251 of 280
          id: jracr-67
      author: Marc Poumadère; Anne Perrin
       title: Risk Assessment of Radio Frequencies and Public Information
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8482
      flesch: 42
     summary: Uncertainty, especially as it relates to public health risks, can fuel controversy, as politicians await the reports and recommendations from their health authorities. In the case of RF and mobile phones, with health risks remaining outside quantification, the mere suspicion of risk nonetheless impacts the collective and individual imagination of a very large population.
    keywords: analysis; assessment; base; case; effects; exposure; fields; frequencies; health; information; level; phone; public; radio; research; risk; risk assessment; studies; symptoms
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        item: #252 of 280
          id: jracr-68
      author: Dusan Marcek
       title: Risk Scenes Of Managerial Decision-Making With Incomplete Information: An Assessment In Forecasting Models Based On Statistical And Neural Networks Approach
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6067
      flesch: 51
     summary: Forecasting models are applied which are based on a statistical theory and a neural approach. Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 3, No. 1 (May 2013), 13-21 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 13 D.Marcek One of the approaches to understanding uncertainty in forecasting models is understanding it as the standard deviation σ of the forecasted quantity used by Marcek (see Refs.
    keywords: data; decision; entropy; forecasting; information; making; managerial; models; probability; risk; uncertainty
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        item: #253 of 280
          id: jracr-69
      author: Yang Yang; Li Li; Zongfang Zhou; Wenying Fei
       title: The Research On Applicability Of Amended KMV Model With Different Industries
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3648
      flesch: 56
     summary: The total accuracy of amended KMV model is higher than traditional KMV model significantly. The table 5 below shows the total accuracy of traditional KMV model and amended KMV model based on the data out of training samples.
    keywords: companies; company; default; kmv model; point; samples; traditional
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        item: #254 of 280
          id: jracr-7
      author: Huang, Chongfu
       title: Editor's Introduction to the first issue of JRACR
        date: 2021-10-09
       words: 1120
      flesch: 52
     summary: Microsoft Word - Re jracr-1_1_intro.doc Editor's Introduction to the first issue of JRACR This inaugural issue formally announces the establishment of the international Journal of Risk analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) to disseminate research findings and applications on a variety of topics in risk analysis (RA) and improved crisis response (CR). Risk, associated with a future incident accompanied by some adverse effect1, not only arising from natural phenomena but also produced by human activity, has become everywhere linked to potentially more destructive outcomes.
    keywords: analysis; crisis; response; risk
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        item: #255 of 280
          id: jracr-70
      author: Junping Yan; Shuangshuang Li;  Jing Bai;  Xinyan Liu
       title: The Spatial Symmetry Axis of Earthquake Hazard in China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1422
      flesch: 84
     summary: South China Journal of Seismology, 30(sup.) This paper takes the spatial symmetry axis of earthquake hazard in china as the key of assessing natural disaster risk to emphatically analyze the rationality of the existence of the spatial symmetry axis of the regions of western china, Yunnan province and Taiwan and find out the dynamics basis of spatial symmetry axis combing with those presentational features, so as to provide some theoretical thinking and methods for reference to identify the time, spatial trends of the earthquake disaster occurrence.
    keywords: axis; china; disaster; earthquake; press; science; symmetry
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        item: #256 of 280
          id: jracr-71
      author: Chongfu Huang
       title: Types of Credit Risks and Strategies to Improve Risk Identification by Internet of Intelligences
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1882
      flesch: 85
     summary: 和 P 分别为银行集合、政 府部门集合和民众集合，则表征信用风险的基本空 间是 { , , }B G PΩ = 。显然，Ω 是一个离散点空间。 ,X Y∀ ∈Ω , 将 X 中的个体 x 承担由于 Y 中的个 体 y 之信用不良产生的信用风险记为 ( )xy xr yϕ= （1） 不失一般性， X∀ ∈Ω ，记其容量（元素个数） 为 n（X），即：|X|= n（X）。易知， ,X Y∀ ∈Ω ， 其卡氏积 X Y× 上存在一个信用风险矩阵： 1 1 1 2 1 ( ) 2 1 2 2 1 ( ) ( ) 1 ( ) 2 ( ) ( ) n Y n Y n X n X n X n Y x y x y x y x y x y x y X Y x y x y x y r r r r r r R r r r × ⎛ ⎞ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎠ L L L L L L L （2） 通常， X YR × 不是对称矩阵，即：如果 ,i j j ix y y xr r 不同时为 0，则 , i j j
    keywords: atlantis; copyright; credit; risk; web; x y
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        item: #257 of 280
          id: jracr-72
      author: Fusheng Yu; Shihu Liu
       title: Decision-Making Model in the Environment of Complex Structure Data
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2795
      flesch: 95
     summary:                = (1) 进一步，用 ( )E G 表示顶点关系集，即对于任意的两 个对象 , ( )i jx x V G ， ( , ) ( )i jx x E G 当且仅当 ix 和 jx 存在某种关系。 显然，对于一个具有复杂结构的数据而言，对 于不同的指标，其值域表示也不尽相同。同时，描 述顶点之间关系的数据集 ( )E G 也未必只有一个。 定义 2. (知识粒度)给定向量型数据 ( )V G ，及在 任意指标 ia 下的划分 1 2{ , , , }i 5. 基于聚类的复杂结构环境下的决策模型 我们知道，风险分类8-10 是风险管理中的一项基本工 作。它是根据不同标准，对已知风险进行分类，旨 在提高风险管理效率的基础上降低风险管理成本。 聚类分析的基本思想，已经被广泛应用到风险 分析中，诸如震后灾情评估11，财务风险分析12，风 险投资13 等诸多领域。在此我们就实际问题的复杂 性，从聚类的角度作进一步分析研究。 对于一个实际问题，除了可以利用多个指标来 刻画一个对象的特性外，所要研究的对象之间往往 还存在千丝万缕的关系。这种关系，构成了所谓的 关系数据。于是，对于实际问题的建模，就是对于 一个具有复杂结构数据 ( , )G V E  的再分析过程。其 中， V 代表所要研究的对象集，是一向量型数据； E 代表该数据对象之间的关系集，是一关系型数 据。综上所述，对于一个实际问题的分析，就转变 成对多结构数据的分析。 通常情况下，所研究的问题都只是对 ( )V G 或者 ( )E G 的单独分析。分析过程简单明了，但是处理结 果有失偏颇。为了避免这一点，最直接的方法就是 对 ( )V G 和 ( )E G 中的数据实现对位加权处理。权重 往往是通过以往实验或者经验值估计出来的。 对于任意两个对象 , ( )i jx x V G  ，不妨记 ijd 为 关于向量型数据集 ( )V G 的不相似描述， ije 为关于关 系型数据集 ( )E G 的不相似描述，下面我们给出一种 不加权的信息融合方法。 定义 7. 给定向量型数据 ( )V G 和关系型数据 ( )E G ，则称  
    keywords: data; decision
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        item: #258 of 280
          id: jracr-75
      author: Jingjing Xiao; Zhiguo Huo; Dapeng Huang; Fenfen Guo; Yan Jiang; Gaofeng Fan; Youhao E; Caixia YU
       title: Meteorological Grading Indexes of Water–saving Irrigation for Corn
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3025
      flesch: 61
     summary: For jointing-heading stage, the indicators were [15%,30%), [30%, 45%) and ≥45%, corresponding to 0.5 irrigation, 1 irrigation and ＞1 irrigation, respectively. 度，以及实际灌溉量、逐年作物产量等资料，结合 FAO-1979 作物水分–产量关系函数，分析全国玉米种植 区播种–拔节、拔节–抽穗、抽穗–成熟和全生育期的水分亏缺率、水分亏缺量与减产率之间的关系，构建玉 米不同发育期和全生育期节水灌溉气象等级指标。结果表明：玉米全生育期节水灌溉气象Ⅰ－Ⅲ级水分亏 缺率和水分亏缺量（辅助指标）指标分别为[10%, 25%）、[25%, 40%）、≥40%和 1－2 水、2－3 水、＞3 水；播种–拔节为[15%, 30%）、[30%, 45%）、≥45%和 0.5 水、1 水、＞1 水；拔节–抽穗为[10%, 20%）、[20%, 35%）、≥35%和 1 水、1－2 水、＞2 水；抽穗–成熟为[10%, 25%）、[35%, 40%）、≥40%和 0.5 水、1 水、 ＞1 水。指标体系可以为优化农业灌溉、指导农业生产提供科学支撑。 关键词：玉米；节水灌溉；气象指标 1.
    keywords: china; irrigation; journal; maize; meteorological; press; stage; water
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        item: #259 of 280
          id: jracr-76
      author: K.K. Thampi; M.J. Jacob
       title: On the Renewal Risk Model with Constant Interest Force
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4572
      flesch: 74
     summary: Thus we have (δ)δT1 δ δ 1 δ 1t φ (u) = E{φ (U(T ))} = E{φ (ue +cs -X )}, that is (δ)δte +c s (δ)δtt δ δ t0 0 φ (u) = g (t) φ (ue + cs - x) dF(x) dt.
    keywords: ruin
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        item: #260 of 280
          id: jracr-78
      author: Qinghua Gong; Guangqing Huang; Junxiang Zhang
       title: Research on Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Landslide Disaster in Red Soil Hilly Region of South China
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1122
      flesch: 68
     summary: Secondly, we will reveal the growth characteristics and disaster mechanism of landslide by study the relationship between the characteristics of intensity and frequency of landslide and meteorological factors, hydrologic geology, geologic factors, landform and human factors and so on. Microsoft Word - Research on Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Landslide Disaster in Red Soil Hilly Region of South Ch Research on Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Landslide Disaster in Red Soil Hilly Region of South China Qinghua Gong Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China Guangqing Huang Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences，Guangzhou 510640，China Junxiang Zhang Tourism College, Huangshan University, Huangshan245021, China Abstract The mechanism of landslide hazard in weathering crust of granites in south china was chosen as our research object.
    keywords: atlantis; china; guangzhou; landslide; mechanism
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        item: #261 of 280
          id: jracr-79
      author: Duffey, Romney
       title: Infection Waves in Pandemics and Risk Prediction: Physical Diffusion Theory and Data Comparisons
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6628
      flesch: 46
     summary: Figure 3 | Comparison of theory to second wave data in China. For any infection number, n, at any time, t, convention- ally, without additional internal or imported infection sources:2 � � � n t D n� 2 (1) The community-wide diffusion coefficient or diffusivity, D, physically represents all random person-to-person and intra- societal cross infections and is the key parameter to be deduced Figure 1 | General idealized trends of pandemic infection waves over the last century, with daily infection numbers normalized to the first peak.
    keywords: data; days; diffusion; infection; n n; peak; rate; risk; second; societal; wave
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        item: #262 of 280
          id: jracr-8
      author:  SALVI, Olivier; DELSINNE, Samuel; EVANNO, Sébastien
       title: Biogas - A European Perspective on Safety and Regulation
        date: 2021-10-09
       words: 12138
      flesch: 52
     summary: The present document helps to share knowledge, to structure questions, and to propose answers and further actions aiming at improving safety of biogas production and supporting the quick and sustainable deployment of this energy. The increase in biogas production principally benefited electricity produced in CHP (combined heat and power) units.
    keywords: authors; biogas; biogas plants; biogas production; biogas safety; electricity; energy; european; gases; grid; injection; kwh; materials; network; plants; processes; production; quality; ref; regulation; risks; safety; waste
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        item: #263 of 280
          id: jracr-80
      author: Farid Kadri; Eric Chatelet, Patrick Lallement
       title: The Assessment of Risk Caused by Fire and Explosion in Chemical Process Industry: A Domino Effect-Based Study
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6089
      flesch: 54
     summary: Domino effect and escalation There is no generally accepted definition of what constitutes domino effects in the context of accidents in the industrial plants, although various authors have provided suggestions [14, 15, 16, 17]. The results have proven the importance of domino effect assessment in the framework of risk analysis.
    keywords: accidents; analysis; assessment; damage; domino; domino effect; effect; equipment; explosion; failure; fire; heat; journal; overpressure; probability; process; radiation; risk; system
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        item: #264 of 280
          id: jracr-82
      author: Minyan Li; Deyin Huang; Mao Liu
       title: MCSim-Based Occupational Health Risk Assessment on Benzene
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3086
      flesch: 72
     summary: 组织j中BO转化为MA的代谢： , 3 4 3 3 BO BO L MA L L V RM k C （19） 与SCL模型类似，硫酸盐化作用和糖脂化作用的 假设也应用到模型中。 PH的轭合： 1 1 2 1 , 1 ,1 1 ,2 1 ( ) 3 PH PH PH PH L PH L Conj L PH PH PH PH m L m L CP L V C V C RM K C K C T C      （20） 氢醌和它的轭合物的代谢发生在区域 3 中，因 为糖脂化作用在此区域更强。 HQ 的轭合： 3 , 3 3 3 HQ HQ LHQ MP L Conj L HQ HQ m L V C T RM C K C   （21） 苯的吸入浓度： (1 ) 2.2.2.1 生理药代动力学（PBPK）模型的选择 本研究中使用的人类PBPK模型基于苯在小鼠体 内代谢的模型[25,26]。该模型追踪了苯、苯环氧化物、 苯酚、氢醌、粘康酸、苯巯基尿酸、苯酚轭合物、氢 醌轭合物、儿茶酚和苯三醇总量在人体各组织中的浓 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 136   度水平。为研究苯、苯环氧化物、苯酚和氢醌的生理 药代动力学过程，将人体划分为以下房室：血液（苯 生理药代动力学过程不包含血液部分）、肾脏、肝脏、 脂肪、充分灌注组织（包括大脑、心脏、脾脏、肠和 骨髓），以及不充分灌注组织（包括肌肉和皮肤）。 肝脏被划分为三个体积相等的房室，以表示肝脏的三 个区域。此前的研究中，肾脏通常被视作充分灌注组 织的一部分。本文将肾脏作为单独的房室加入模型， 其余部分和单一肝脏房室（SCL）模型的基本房室结 构相同。另外，本文假设非酶代谢在所有组织中发生。 SCL模型以口服和吸入为苯暴露的途径，该模型 包括了胃房室和肺泡气体交换区域。尿液的代谢物 中，考虑所有单一代房室的代谢物，使用单独的公式 来表示尿液中代谢物排出的量。所有的房室被认为是 充分混合的。 模型使用各组织房室内的静脉平衡模型，即假定 静脉血离开房室时的浓度等于组织内的浓度，静脉血 中化学物质i离开房室j的浓度为：   i ji j i j C CV P  （1） 总的心脏流量等于每个组织房室内的流量之和：   Card F S R L KQ Q Q Q Q Q     （2） 在混合的静脉血中苯的浓度用以下公式给出：   ( / BZ BZ BZ BZ F F S S R R BZ BZ L L K K Card CV CV Q CV Q CV Q CV Q CV Q Q      ）   （3） 由于苯的血液-空气分配系数相对较低，可用标准 的准稳态空气交换公式表示苯在动脉血中的浓度（当 分配系数大于等于100时，这种关系是不正确的，因 为到达气体交换区域的浓度明显小于吸入的浓度）：   : BZ BZ BZ AvV I Card AvV Card Bl Air Q C Q CV CA Q Q P    （4） 口服摄入的苯从胃部到达肝脏，并代谢或分布到 身体其它部分。这是一个单向的交换，即一旦苯到达 肝脏，就不会再回到胃部。摄入量表示为：           8 Stomk AM （5） 该模型考虑了肝脏和其他组织中的代谢，以及代 谢在肝脏中发生位置的特殊性。多项研究确认了肝脏 的异质性，肝脏能够依据酶的不同组成划分为多个区 域。各区域的氧气和养分物质组成不同。 P4502E1（CYP2E1）主要存在于中心肝细胞，标 记为区域3。因此，CYP2E1介导的代谢仅考虑发生在 肝脏的区域3。CYP2E1在肝脏中的活动： 2 1 3 , 3 1 3 BZ BZ MPE L L BO L L V C T RM k C D  （6） 2 1 3 , 3 5 3 PH PH MPE L L HQ L L V C T RM k C D  （7） 2 1 3 , 3 6 3 PH PH MPE L L Cat L L V C T RM k C D  （8） 2 1 3 , 3 7 3 HQ HQ MPE L L THB L L V C T RM k C D  （9） 2 1EV 表示整个肝脏匀浆中每毫克胞浆蛋白中 CYP2E1的活性，该活性由p硝基代苯酚到p硝基儿茶 酚的氧化确定。 MPC 表示每克肝脏中肝微粒体蛋白质 的量，并且 3 3 31 BZ BZ PH PH HQ HQ L L L LD A C
    keywords: benzene; health; k k; l l; risk
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        item: #265 of 280
          id: jracr-83
      author: Lifen Xu; Shiyong Wen; Dongzhi Zhao;  Xuegong Xu
       title: On the coastal erosion risk assessment indexes
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2424
      flesch: 76
     summary: The index system is expected to provide a practical theoretical basis for coastal erosion risk assessment. Abstract China is one of the most severely affected countries by coastal erosion.
    keywords: assessment; atlantis; authors; beach; coast; copyright; engineering; erosion; geology; geomorphology; marine; model; press; risk
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        item: #266 of 280
          id: jracr-84
      author: David McCready; James B. Williams
       title: Risk Assessment for a Chemical Spill into a River
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 7822
      flesch: 54
     summary: Thus, there is a strong interest to prevent chemical spills and contain a spill if it occurs. Most state regulatory agencies also regulate chemical spills but the specific regulations are too numerous to describe here.
    keywords: chemical; concentration; exposure; flow; methanol; model; rate; release; risk; river; spill; toxicity; water
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        item: #267 of 280
          id: jracr-85
      author: Dinh Tran Ngoc Huy
       title: The Volatility of Market Risk In Viet Nam Listed Banking, Insurance and Financial Services Company Groups after the Financial Crisis 2009-2011
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4888
      flesch: 57
     summary: In our comparative analysis on asset beta values, this is the industry which has the smallest number of companies (6 firms) and which has the lowest values of equity beta var of 0.037 and the 2nd lowest asset beta var of 0.05. Additionally, it has some negative impacts on Viet Nam stock market which is in the down turn.
    keywords: asset; beta; equity; financial; firms; stock; values
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        item: #268 of 280
          id: jracr-86
      author: Ying He
       title: Assessment Research of Bijie Drought Risk Based On Cloud Model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3152
      flesch: 85
     summary: 6.8433 6.0314 9.5495 10.9786 10.7695 4.4024 0.9748 1.3895 21U 4064.17 3453.50 3831.37 3455.68 3536.21 3398.21 3628.21 3825.16 22U 1203.13 1067.88 1164.88 1443.5 1087.88 1101.38 961.88 1083.75 23U 0.1963 0.2064 0.2136 0.2022 0.1995 0.1856 0.1422 0.1580 Published by Atlantis Press Copyright: the authors 195 Assessment Research of Bijie Drought Risk Based On Cloud Model 4.2 干旱灾害风险评价等级划分 对于 23 个指标，为使得在云模型中隶属度的计 算更为准确，需要对每个指标的数值进行区划，构 建针对风险等级的低、较低、一般、较高、高五个 数值范围。由于影响干旱的因素很多，造成干旱的 原因不同，各地气候、地理条件差异很大，目前难 以采用全国统一的干旱评判标准。因此在参考若干 文献基础上，结合气象学、地质学、社会学等学科 知识分析各个指标与干旱之间的联系，进行干旱灾 害风险评价等级的划分[31-33]，如表 3 所示。 表3 干旱灾害风险评价等级划分 Tab.3 Level grading of drought risk assessment 指标 低风险 较低风险 一般风险 较高风险 高风险 指标 低风险 较低风险 一般风险 较高风险 高风险 1U 0-10 10-12 12-14 14-16 16-20 13U 0-50000 50000- 90000 90000- 130000 130000- 170000 170000- 220000 2U 1100-1400 900-1100 650-900 500-650 0-500 14U 0-20 20-24 24-28 28-31 31-38 3U 0-14 14-22 22-30 30-38 38-50 15U 0-30 30-55 55-80 80-100 100-130 4U 91-105 77-91 63-77 44-63 0-44 16U 0-5 5-8 8-11 11-15 15-20 5U 7.5-9 6.5-7.5 5.5-6.5 3.5-5.5 0-3.5 17U 0-4 4-6 6-9 9-12 12-16 6U 26-34 22-26 17-22 12-17 0-12 18U 0-0.4 0.4-0.6 0.6-0.8 0.8-1 1-1.3 7U 1900-2300 1400-1900 900-1400 500-900 0-500 19U 0-60 60-105 105-155 155-205 205-250 8U 0-15 15-19 19-22 22-26 26-32 20U 10.5-14 8-10.5 5.5-8 2.5-5.5 0-2.5 9U 0-8 8-10 10-14 14-18 18-24 21U 4000-4500 3650-4000 3300-3650 3000-3300 0-3000 10U 0-7 7-11 11-15 15-19 19-23 22U 1500-2000 1250-1500 1000-1250 800-1000 0-800 11U 0-130 130-200 200-270 270-330 330-400 23U 0.21-0.3 0.19-0.21 0.17-0.19 0.15-0.17 0-0.15 12U 0-50000 50000- 80000 80000- 100000 100000- 120000 120000- 160000 4.3 毕节地区各区县干旱灾害风险计算 本文通过对搜集的数据进行整理，并根据公式 (5)、公式(7)计算出期望、熵，结合干旱灾害风险评 价指标体系和评价等级划分，将五个等级的正态云 模型（包含期望、熵、超熵）表示如表 4，其中超 熵根据经验选定。 例如，将日照百分率这一指标利用公式(1)和云 矩阵 R 中 3U (如表 4)的数值,建立五个风险等级的正 态云隶属度函数，遵循清晰化原则来确定日照百分 率的超熵，如图 2 所示。 假定步骤 4 反复计算次数 200N  Journal of Southwest University for Nationalities in the mine geology disaster risk zoning evaluation of grey clustering method: Natural Science Edition, 2008,34 (3): 545-551 毛新虎,刘占魁,李秀青.灰色聚类法在矿山地质灾害危 险性分区评价中的应用[J].西南民族大学学报:自然科 学版, 2008, 34(3): 545-551.
    keywords: assessment; atlantis; bijie; cloud; disaster; drought; evaluation; model; press; research; risk
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        item: #269 of 280
          id: jracr-87
      author: Xilei Pang
       title: Dynamic Vulnerability Analysis of Population for Flood Disaster in Urban Area
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2174
      flesch: 79
     summary: Research on Vulnerability Assessment of Cities on the Disaster Scenario[D]. Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disasters in Pudong District[J].
    keywords: analysis; disaster; flood; population; press; risk; vulnerability;  ;  
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        item: #270 of 280
          id: jracr-88
      author: Ali Ekşi
       title: Gezi Park Crisis
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5965
      flesch: 48
     summary: Dogan News Agency, Nabi Avcı'dan Gezi Parkı olayları için dikkat çekici yorum, Available at: http://www. In this section of the study, the problem areas in Turkey regarding the representation problem which is the most important reason of Gezi Park events will be handled.
    keywords: crisis; crisis management; decision; events; gezi; gezi park; government; july; making; park; park crisis; participation; problem; processes; public; representation; turkey
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        item: #271 of 280
          id: jracr-89
      author: Qian Zhang;  Deyin Huang;  Mao Liu; Minyan Li
       title: Internal Exposure Simulation Based on Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2933
      flesch: 69
     summary: Carcinogenesis, 1994, Vol. 15(8): 1479~1486 4.3 1,3-丁二烯内暴露模拟结果验证 为了验证 PBPK 模型模拟结果，本文将通过 ERDEM软件模拟得到BD在体内代谢内剂量值与生 物实验数据进行对比。但未找到丁二烯人体内剂量 实验数据，本文仅以小鼠内剂量实验数据进行模拟 结果的验证。 实验验证数据采用Himmelstein等人[30]对暴露于 1,3-丁二烯不同浓度环境下6h，小鼠6小时之间采集 到的血液样本浓度平均值；当采集血液样本时动物 继续吸入1,3-丁二烯。 本文利用ERDEM建立丁二烯的PBPK模型后， 按照实验条件进行内暴露模拟条件的设定，在丁二 烯外暴露浓度为71、603、1282ppm的条件下，分别 对小鼠吸入丁二烯后静脉血中丁二烯平均浓度进行 模拟，结果如表3示。 表.3 1,3-丁二烯的内暴露模拟和实验值对比 外暴露 ppm 6 小时内剂量实 验值 mg/L 6 小时内剂量模 拟值 mg/L 71 0.13 0.25 603 2.58 2.11 1282 4.97 4.89 实验数据资料来源： Matthew W. Himmelstein, Max J. Turner, Bahman Asgharian, et al. Yao Meicun, Jiang Xiaofei, Lu Yasong, et al. PBPK model and its application in TCM Studies.
    keywords: 1,3; benzene; butadiene; chloride; exposure; model; pbpk; risk; vinyl; zhang
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        item: #272 of 280
          id: jracr-9
      author: HOAG, DANA; KESKE, CATHERINE; GOLDBACH, REBECCA 
       title: Risk Indviduality in Crisis Planning: the Case of Gender in Amercan Agriculture
        date: 2021-10-09
       words: 4748
      flesch: 53
     summary: There is no information about risk management differences across gender in agriculture, despite the fact that U.S. Census data shows that female-operated farms are a rapidly growing component of the sector.7 We base our analysis on two surveys conducted at risk management programs in 2008.8 Data were collected in a self assessment survey and a revealed preference survey connected to a computerized risk management simulation program called Ag Survivor.9 We examine differences between men and women in the areas of risk preference, confidence, motivation, and influence . The Ag Survivor program9 is an innovative risk research and education effort to help farm managers understand and explore risk management decisions and evaluate the financial consequences of those decisions with the presence of risk.
    keywords: business; decisions; differences; females; gender; influence; management; research; risk; survey; women
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        item: #273 of 280
          id: jracr-90
      author: Song Chenye; Zhang Ren; Zhou Aixia; Hong Mei
       title: Water Security Risk Assessment of the Yellow River Basin Based on Constrained-Random Weight and Cloud Model
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 2341
      flesch: 86
     summary: ，可得到风险矩阵:      ik ij jkm n m p p nR    U 中的两朵相邻基 云 1 1 1 1( , , )A Ex En He 和 2 2 2 2( , , )A Ex En He ，则位于两朵 基云之间任意位置 u 存在一浮动云的数字特征由下式 计算： 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Ex u En Ex Ex En Ex Ex En Ex Ex He Ex Ex He Ex Ex He Ex Ex                (2) 将定量变量的云化的结果和浮动云得到的结 果还原的云模型置于同一坐标系中，得到指标值取 在不同区间的云标尺。在本研究中，以相邻两朵评 语集的云模型生成浮动云对应的评语集云模型分 别是： (0.1702, 0.0390, 0.0013)Cloud 很好 ， (0.4318, 0.0371, 0.0021)Cloud 较好 ， (0.6199, 0.0256, 0.0021)Cloud 较差 ， (0.8084, 0.0214, 0.0013)Cloud 很差 。 其含义与定量变量云化得到的评语集云模型一致，例 如， (0.8084, 0.0214, 0.0013)Cloud 很差 指评语为“很 差”的云，其对应的云模型的期望值为 0.8084，熵为 0.0214，超熵为 0.0013.
    keywords: assessment; cloud; press; risk; security; water
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        item: #274 of 280
          id: jracr-91
      author: Dengfeng Liu; Dong Wang;  Yuankun Wang; Lachun Wang; Xinqing Zou
       title: WD-RBF Model and its Application of Hydrologic Time Series Prediction
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 1893
      flesch: 83
     summary: Reconstructed series were predicted by RBF network. The simulation and prediction of WD-RBF model were compared with ARIMA and RBF network to show that wavelet de-nosing can identify and eliminate random errors in series effectively; RBF network can mine the nonlinear relationship in hydrologic time series.
    keywords: arima; liu; model; mse; prediction; rbf; series; time; wang; wavelet
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        item: #275 of 280
          id: jracr-92
      author: Rajaonah, Bako; Zio, Enrico
       title: Risk Perception Biases and the Resilience of Ethics for Complying with COVID-19-Pandemic-Related Safety Measures
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3402
      flesch: 36
     summary: Our goal is to raise the debate about risk communication, starting from the influences on risk perceptions and risk decisions of cognitive, affective and social fac- tors – with an emphasis on mental models and trust – and ending with the concept of the ethics of resilience. We decided to focus on mental models of risk and trust because the goal of risk communication is to (i) fill the gaps in the mental model with regard to risk understanding, reinforce correct beliefs, and correct misconceptions
    keywords: communication; covid-19; ethics; factors; models; people; public; resilience; risk; trust; vaccine
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        item: #276 of 280
          id: jracr-94
      author:  Shileche, Emma; Weke, Patrick; Achia, Thomas
       title: Kernel Density Estimation of White Noise for Non-diversifiable Risk in Decision Making
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 4672
      flesch: 67
     summary: The variance of non-diversifiable risk is estimated as a random variable referred to as random error (white noise). This has been clearly addressed in this paper by using non-diversifiable risk which is determined without covariance.
    keywords: density; noise; risk; white
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        item: #277 of 280
          id: jracr-95
      author: Jun-ichi Takeshita; Hiroaki Mohri
       title: A Cooperative Game Theoretical Approach to Risk Analysis, Using Network
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 3054
      flesch: 63
     summary: Shapley Values Here we introduce Shapley values by means of two simple examples. Therefore, we here provide a risk analysis method based on cooperative game theory, and especially so-called Shapley values.
    keywords: game; risk; shapley
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        item: #278 of 280
          id: jracr-97
      author: Bolanle A. Olaniran; Juliann C. Scholl
       title: New England Compounding Center Meningitis Outbreak: A Compounding Public Health Crisis
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 5543
      flesch: 48
     summary: Keywords: Crisis management, Crisis preparedness, Anticipatory model, Meningitis outbreak 1. The next section presents a brief overview of the anticipatory model of crisis management which is used to analyze the NECC meningitis case.
    keywords: communication; company; compounding; control; crisis; health; management; meningitis; model; necc; outbreak; public
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        item: #279 of 280
          id: jracr-98
      author: Jörgen Sparf; Susanna Öhman
       title: On Risk and Disability – Investigating the Influence of Disability and Social Capital on the Perception and Digital Communication of risk
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 8927
      flesch: 54
     summary: Knowledge from risk perception studies are applied in risk information, such as health, environment, and personal security. This differs from the results of previous studies on other population groups, which show that group specific factors do influence risk perception.
    keywords: capital; communication; disability; group; individual; influence; information; journal; knowledge; people; perception; press; research; risk; risk perception; social; study; trust
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        item: #280 of 280
          id: jracr-99
      author: Mustafa Elmontsri
       title: Review of the strengths and weaknesses of risk matrices
        date: 2021-10-15
       words: 6045
      flesch: 60
     summary: Risk matrices are helpful tools for risk assessment as they use quantitative measures to ensure consistent method of determining risk but organisations should adjust the design and size of risk matrices to suit their needs. Microsoft Word - Review of the strengths and weaknesses of risk matrices (1) 1 Review of the strengths and weaknesses of risk matrices Mustafa Elmontsri Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London St Dunstan’s Road, London, W6 8RP, United Kingdom E-mail: m.elmontsri10@imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk Abstract Risk assessment and risk matrices are powered tools used in risk management and help guide in the process of decision-making in organisations.
    keywords: analysis; assessment; consequence; cox; frequency; loss; low; management; matrices; matrix; medium; press; qualitative; regions; risk; safety; use
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