t-I TRA TEG ~ THE Dll FERKNCK BETWEEN SURVIVAL AND DISASTER: CRISIS PLANNING IN SMALL BUSIN FSSES John E. Spillan Penn State University —Dubois jes401psu.edu ABSTRACT Crisis management seeks to lessen the itnpact of damaging events that can happen to an organization. Although crisis-management literature addressing the needs of larger organizations is plentiful, little has been written on this subject for small businesses. This stud& exnniines the perceptions nml experiences of crisis events among the owners ami manngcrs of small-businesses The results indicate that few of these organizations have a formal crisis-nianagernent team or plan. Reasons for this lack of planmng are offered and implications for management are presented. INTRODUCTION Crisis management seeks to minimize the impact of damaging events within an organization. Many large organizations have sophisticated crisis-management plans and teams ready to act in the event of a crisis. For small businesses, the opposite is often true. Managers of small operations tend to believe that the issue of crisis management is irrelevant and has limited importance. These organizations might adopt an "it can't happen to us" mentality, assuming that crisis event:; happen to other organizations or that they are somehow immune (Mitroff, 1989). Other small-business managers believe that they do not need to worry because they have insurance to cover any losses or work interruption. Another reason smaller organizations may not adequately address crisis management is a perceived lack of resources (Barton, 2001). These views are shortsighted and can be detrimental to the success of the small- business operation. This is a timely topic of special interest to academics and practitioners because we live and work in a turbulent environment. The events of September 11 have changed how many managers do business. Although crisis-management research is expanding, little has been written about crisis-management practices in small businesses. This study provides an overview of crisis-management perceptions of small businesses and empirically investigates three issues: 1. The perceptions of small-business owners and managers regarding the concept and practices of crisis management. 20 Journal of Small Business Strategy Vol. 14, No. l Spring/Summer 2003 2. Explanations for differences in perceptions and practices that exist in these businesses. 3. Alternatives or recommendations that can strengthen the preparedness of small businesses. LITERATURE REVIEW Crisis management Crisis management aims to hmit the impact of an unexpected event. Gorski (1998) reports that a crisis can encompass events from a natural disaster, such as a flood or hurricane, to a form of human tragedy. A crisis can cause an operational production failure and/or it can lead to a public relations fiasco. Subsequent legal problems can disrupt the normal function of business. According to Caponigro (2000), crisis management is the function that helps an organization gain control of the situation. It also poises managers to take advantage of any benefits that a crisis may present, sometimes focusing attention on a business segment that was previously ignored. (Caponigro, 1998; Hickman & Crandall, 1997). Crisis identification A. Simbo (1993) reports that one of the major reasons businesses do not have effective crisis- management plans is because they have not identified the potential events that could hurt their'rganizations.Consequently, they have not developed the tools to deal with a crisis. Fink (2000) contends that crisis identification is important for two major reasons. First, when the cnsis is properly defined, it can be managed. Second, once the crisis is defined, it allows managers to determine the influence they have over the desired outcome. Because crises are generally followed by a variety of diversionary problems, it is important that the manager focus interventions on the core issues. Warwick's (1993) research indicates that one of the important preparations for a crisis- management plan is conducting a risk assessment. Some businesses identify vulnerabilities or crisis events that are unique to their organizations. For instance, movie theaters prepare for the occurrence of a fire with smoke detectors or emergency exits. The crisis-management literature identifies a number of classifications for crisis events. Some experts have used the cluster analysis (Pearson & Mitroff, 1993). Others have proposed different types of classification methods (Coombs, 1995; Irvine & Miller, 1997). Overall, there is no specific agreement on how to classify crisis events. While the classification systems are important to the researchers, managers need to be more concerned about their unique vulnerabilities (Caponigro, 1998) Thus, this study proposes to ask practicing managers . to identify the concerns in their respective organizations. Exhibit 1 summarizes potential crisis categories. Worst-case scenario planning Managers must ask: What crisis is of most concern to our business and has such an event or any crisis actually happened? Responses to these questions are important for three reasons. First, as potential crises are identified, managers can begin to plan for them. For example, one of the most difficult crises in a business is the on-site death of an employee. There needs to be a plan to deal with an employee's death in a professional and dignified way (i.e. notifying next of kin). If the worker was instrumental to day-to-day operations, plans must be available to provide a replacement with comparable skill and experience (Wnek, 2000). Second, recognition of potential events enables management to enact measures to prevent them. 21 Journal ofStaall Business StrattXv Val. /4, Na. I Spri ng/Summer 2003 Careful planning and the implementation ol'cnsis-management procedures allowed the Y2K transition to occur ivith minimal difficulties (Salerno, 2000). Finally, identifying the most probable cnses allows researchers, writers, and consultants to warn the general business community about crisis events or vulnerabilities that need organizational attention. The Y2K threat was greatly dimmished because of the awareness generated by the popular press and management researchers. Exhibit I - Categories of crisis events Operational crises Publicity problems Loss of records permanently due to fire Boycott by consumers or the public Computer system breakdown Product sabotage Loss of records permanently due to computer system Negative media coverage breakdown Computer system invaded by hacker Natural disasters Ma)or industrial accident Flood Major producVsetvice malfunction Tornado Death of key executive Snowstorm Breakdown of major production/service equipment Hurricane Earthquake Fraudulent activities Theft or disappearance of records Legal crises Corruption by management Consumer lawsuit Embezzlement by employee(s) Employee lawsuit Corporate espionage Government investigation Theft of'company property Product recalls Employee violence in the workplace Adapted fratn: Crandall, McCartney, & Ziemnawicz, (/999). Internal auditors and their perceptions of crisis events. Internal Auditing, l4 (I), II-I. SMALL BUSINESSES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT Every day small businesses are confronted with unwelcome crises that cause them to crash, strain, struggle and fail in unpublicized silence (Traverso, 2001). Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, many businesses have begun to assess their vulnerabilities. Among small businesses, the task of crisis preparedness has been exceptionally demanding. According to Hopkins (2001), workplace violence, cyber loss and mail contamination are some of the top security issues. One small Houston firm with 110 employees leaves nothing to chance, requiring all job applicants to provide a valid driver's license. Discovery of an invalid driver' license helps managers flag potential problems with an applicant (Hopkins, 2001). Other small businesses are developing systems to back up data to protect against data loss or hacker invasions. Still others are redesigning building space to screen mail for suspicious packages before delivering them to employees (Hopkins, 2001). In 1999, at Hollow Metal Door Co., an employee embezzled nearly $250,000 (Daniels, 2002). While the amount may have been of little consequence to a large company, it was enough to put this small business on the brink of bankruptcy. 22 Journal ofSmall Business Strategy Vol. 14, No. l Spring/Sununer 2003 A small busmess's abihty to manage a cnsis can mean the difference between survival and disaster. Offer's ()998) review of crisis preparedness indicates that 50 percent of all businesses stricken by a crisis. will not survive if they do not have an adequate business recovery plan. Pedone (1997) presents an especially pessimistic observation indicating that 90 percent of businesses without a recovery plan would fail within two years of a disaster. 'fhus, the relevant question in crisis management and planning isn't whether a crisis will occur, but what will it be and when it will occur (Caponigro, 2000). There is some ment to the argument that insurance will resolve a crisis-provoked problem, but its value is far from complete. Simbo's (1993) analysis of this argument indicates that insurance can provide protection for extensive cost implications, but by itself is inadequate in terms of assuring a tirm's survival and recovery. The insurance argument has one major weakness: lt does not protect against decreased productivity, loss of goodwill, low employee morale, increased absenteeism, stress, worker unrest, and increased workers'ompensation claims (Fink, 2000). The business interruption caused by a crisis can have an impact on customers, suppliers and distributors. Moreover, insurance does not solve the public relations and social responsibility problems that may emanate from the crisis. This point was vividly exemplified in the Exxon Vatdez oil disaster (Hartley, 1993).The wildlife and environmental damage could not be valued in dollars and cents. It takes years to recover from such environmental damage; no insurance claim could possibly compensate for it. Some small businesses argue that they do not adequately develop crisis-management plans becahse they do not have the resources (Barton, 2001), while others claim that there just is not enough time 'in today's climate to be preoccupied with crisis-management planning (Caponigro, 2000). While these are understandable points of view, they are imprudent and, if continued, can be harmful to the success of the small business operation. Major deals can be disrupted. It seems more realisnc to establish a crisis-management plan to save the company today and then focus on the deals that will come tomorrow CRISIS PLANNING IN SMALL BUSINESSES: ASSESSING WORST-CASE SCENARIOS The discussion to this point brings us to the question: What are the crisis events that are of most concern to small businesses? Investigating this question will provide useful insights in determining the worst-case scenarios for the crisis-management process. Figure 1 presents a format for assessing worst-case scenarios. Three considerations'can be evaluated: Has the event occurred in the recent past, what is the current level of concern for that particular crisis, and are there any unique characteristics of the business or industry that would increase the likelihood of a certain type of crisis? A crisis that has occurred in the recent past is a consideration in worst-case scenario planning. For example, frequent computer system breakdowns can cause ma)or disruptions. Management will want to take steps to prevent their reoccurrence, so some planning must take place. A common practice in larger organizations is to have back-up computer facilities in place (hot sites) before a major disruption occurs. The level of concern about a crisis is important in worst-case scenario planning. While it is expected that concern will increase if a crisis has already occurred, it is also possible that concern may be heightened even if the specific crisis has not occurred. Two examples illustrate this point. First, the Y2K crisis manifested itself at a small number of organizations, although concern for this potential was extremely high. Second, the September 11 terrorist 23 Jout nal of Small Business Strategy Vol. 14, No. l Spring/Suntrner 2003 incidents have elevated organizational concerns about similar attacks, even though no attacks have occurred at these organizations. Figure I —Assessing worst-case scenarios Crisis Event Occurring in Past Some Potential Worst-Case Scenarios: Concern Toward a ~ Computer Systems Cnsis Event Breakdown ~ Equipment Breakdown ~ Theft of Company Property Small Business Type and Industry Characteristics The particular charactenstics of a business or an industry and its location may dictate what types of crises should be included in worst-case scenario planning. For example, in Florida hurricanes are included in worst-case scenario planning (Kruse, 1993). The previous discussion on crisis in small businesses has indicated that embezzlement and data back-up are problems that can create a crisis. Businesses would be wise to develop contingency plans for these events. THE STUDY Questionnaire A survey instrument was adapted from the instrument used by Crandall, et al. (1999). The instrument was based on the crisis events listed in Exhibit 1. Respondents were asked to rate their degree of concern for each event, using a scale with I indicating a low degree of concern and 5 indicating a high degree of concern. In addition, the survey asked whether the crisis in question had actually occurred at the respondent's organization within the last three years. Respondents were also asked whether their orgamzation had a crisis-management team. Data collection The survey instrument was mailed to the human resources or executive offices of 1,000 small businesses in Pennsylvania and New York. Each survey contained a stamped, self-addressed envelope. One hundred and sixty two usable surveys were received —a response rate of 16.2 percent. RESULTS Three major business types responded to the survey. These included service business (32.7 percent), manufacturing businesses (35.2 percent), retail businesses (2.5 percent) and a category of "other," which comprised a host of businesses not categorized in any of the above (29.6 percent). Ninety-four organizations (64.4 percent) had fewer than 25 employees, 27 organizations (18.5 percent) had between 25 and 99 employees, 19 organizations (13.0 24 Journal of Small Bitsmess Strategy Vol. /4, No. I Spri itglSnnttner 2003 percent) had between 100 and 499 employees, while 6 orgamzations (4.1 percent) had over 500 employees. Sixteen orgamzations did not respond to this question on the survey. With regard to crisis management teams, seventeen businesses (11.0percent) said they had a crisis-management team, while 138 organizations (89.0 percent) responded that they did not have one. Seven busmesses did not respond to this question. Data analysis The lirst phase of the analysis was to examine the business's perception of crises and crisis management. To determine the degree of concern for a crisis, all 27 items on the questionnaire were measured. The results are displayed in Table 1. The means of each potential crisis revealed a range of scores from 3.76 for computer systems breakdown to 1.22 for an earthquake. The second phase of the analysis examined the actual occurrences of a crisis event in the last three years. These results also appear in Table 1. The most frequent type of crisis was computer systems breakdown. This crisis occurred at 94 of the organizations, or 59.9 percent of the total number of businesses in the study. The least-frequent occurring crisis was earthquakes, which occurred at three of the organizations. Thc next phase analyzed the relationship between the concern for a crisis and the occurrence of a cnsis. The purpose of this part of the study was to determine which crisis events happened most often and drew the most concern from the respondents. While it may seem that frequent occurrence of a crisis will generate higher concern, such is not always the case. For example, if computer-system breakdowns have previously occurred in an establishment, but management is not particularly alarmed or concerned about it, then the crisis may not be perceived as severe. When a crisis shows some degree of frequency and a higher degree of concern, then it may be a candidate for worst-case scenario planning. A Pearson correlation analysis found a strong relationship between the concern for a crisis and the occurrence of that same crisis with a coefficient of .734 (significance level p ( 0.01). Determining worst case-scenarios There are various methods to ascertain potential worst-case scenarios. One effective method is to simply ask which crisis events the respondents are most concerned about. These results were revealed in Table 1. Another method is to ask the respondents what events have actually occurred at the organization in a recent time period, such as the last three years, also in Table 1. A third method would be to combine the data from both tables and make a more comprehensive determination of potential worst-case scenarios. For this study, the calculation of Z-scores (Table 2) was used to complete the analysis. Z-scores were calculated in order to standardize the relationship between these two variables. Using the means scores and the frequency of an event's occurrence presented in Table 1, I calculated a standardized Z-score value. The results of these calculations are presented in Table 2. 25 Journal of Small Business Srraregy Vo(. /4, No. l Spring/Summer 2003 Table 1 —Actual occurrence of crisis event & mean degree of concern in last three years Mean Type of crisis event Degree of Frequency % N= concern Computer system breakdown 3.76 94 59.9 157 Snowstorm 2.25 83 56.1 148 Breakdown of a major piece of 3.33 82 53.6 153 production/service equipment Theft of company property 2.67 50 34.7 144 Major product/service malfunction 2.85 45 30.2 149 Permanently lost records due to computer 3.26 37 23.7 156 system breakdown Employee lawsuit 2.70 32 21.9 146 Government investigation 2 52 30 21.1 142 Consumer lawsuit 2.70 26 18.6 140 Flood 1.79 24 16.9 142 Major industrial accident 2.87 23 15.3 150 Product recall 1.96 22 15.3 144 Theft or disappearance of records 2.10 20 13.9 144 Negative media coverage 2.08 15 10.1 148 Embezzlement by employee(s) 1.93 14 9.5 148 Employee violence at the workplace 2.08 13 9.2 142 Product sabotage 1.73 10 6.6 151 Death of a key executive 2.60 10 6.9 145 Hurricane 1.35 9 6.2 146 Computer system invaded by hacker 2.24 9 5.9 153 Corporate espionage 1.71 7 4.9 144 Tornado 1.51 6 4.2 142 Lost records permanently due to fire 2.25 5 3.2 155 Corruption by management 1.71 4 27 147 Boycott by consumers or public 1.52 3 2.0 153 Earthquake 1.22 3 20 147 Z-scores standardize the variables according to the number of standard deviations from the mean of the sample. The higher the Z-score, the farther away from the mean is the variable. Z-scores of 0 equal the mean for the sample; therefore scores over 0 were of particular interest in this study because they indicated higher degrees of concern or occurrence than the sample's average. To help visually depict this relationship, an examination of Graph 1 reveals nine potential crisis events where both Z-scores for concern and occurrence are over 0. Using the Z-score greater than 0 criterions, I propose that these events are good candidates for worst- case scenario planning. Graph 1 illustrates how occurrence and concern move together for each crisis. Not every event follows this pattern on a smooth curve. For example, major industrial accident (item 4,) and consumer lawsuit (item 6, among others) deviate to a greater extent from the concern curve. 26 Jour)tal of Small Business Strategy Vol. /4, No. l Spring/Summer 2003 Table 2 —Z-scores for degree of concern and occurrence of an actual crisis Number key to type of crisis event Z-score for degree of Z- score for concern for the crisis occurrence of cr'isis I Computer systems breakdown 2.333451 2.52353 2 Breakdown of a major piece of prod/serv. 1.6G546 2.11516)4 equip 3 Permanent lost records due to computer 1.55654 .38()65 breakdown 4 Major mdustrial accident .94972 -.10921 5 Major product/service malfunction .91860 .77034 6 Consumer lawsuit .77857 .08559 7 Employee lawsuit .68521 .28039 8 Theft of company property G3853 1.03598 9 Death of a key executive .52962 -.60506 10 Government investigation .40514 .23317 11 Snowstorm -.01496 2.29922 12 Lost records permanently due to fire -.01496 -.82347 13 Computer mvadcd by hacker —.03052 -.66409 14 Theft or disappearance of records -.24835 —.19185 15 Employee violence in the workplace -.27947 -.46929 16 Negative media coverage -.27947 -.416I G 17 Product recall —.46618 -.G2277 18 Embezzlement by employee(s) -.51286 -.45158 19 Flood -.73069 -.01476 20 Product sabotage -.82405 -.62277 21 Corruption by management -.85517 -.85298 22 Corporate espionage —.85517 -.72312 23 Boycott by consumer or public -1.15080 -.89430 24 Tornado -1.16636 -.76444 25 Hurricane -1.41531 -.64638 26 Earthquake -.61758 -.89430 Graph l - Z scores for degree of concern and occurrence of actual crisis Pearson correlation = .734 (p&. 0/) 1 P~ZOCCURRE ! 2 DOD I ODCO I I I I I 'I I I IO li 2 I I I I D 2 22 D 22 D 22 .2CCOD DOO IO 27 yournal of Sinai/ Business S/ra/egy Vo/. /4, No l Spring/Summer 2003 DISCUSSION Analysis of the data reveals two major themes: first, the major crises that small businesses need to address; second, the findmgs suggest that few small businesses have established crisis-management teams or plans for deahng with a crisis. What are the worst-case scenarios? Discovering the worst-case scenarios that will determine the content of crisis plans is part art and part science. In the final analysis, the specific worst-case scenarios will be a function of the individual organization within the context of its size and industry. This study analyzed the scenarios from an aggregate point of view, i.e., the sample was not further subdivided into segments such as industry or organization size. The events that meet this criterion include: ~ Computer systems breakdown (Zconcem = 2.333, Zoccur = 2.523) ~ Breakdown of a ma)or piece of prod/service equipment (Zconcern = 1.665, Zoccur = 2.115) ~ Permanently lost records due to computer breakdown (Zconcem = 1.556, Zoccur =0.3866) ~ Major industrial accident (Zconcern = 0.9497, Zoccur = -0.1092) ~ Ma)or product/service malfunction (Zconcern = 0.9186, Zoccur = 0.7703) ~ Consumer lawsuits (Zconcem = 0.7785, Zoccur = 0.0855) ~ Employee(s) lawsuit (Zconcern = 0.6852, Zoccur = 0.2803) ~ Theft of company property (Zconcern = 0.6385, Zoccur = 1.0359) ~ Death of a key executive (Zconcern = 0.5296, Zoccur = -0.6050) ~ Government investigation (Zconcem = 0.4051, Zoccur = 0.2331) ~ Snowstorm (Zconcem = -0.0149, Zoccur = 2.2992). These findmgs show that 5 of the 11 potential crisis events involve significant business operations. Even though they may seem to be challenging, these potential events could be controlled to some degree by the organization itself. Computer systems data and equipment can be backed up. Expanded or more focused quality-control measures can be implemented to assure that product/service malfunctions and industrial accidents are mitigated. These management practices need periodic assessment to ensure that they are effectively and continuously applied in the work environment. IMPLICATIONS FOR MANAGEMENT This finding reveals an important challenge in crisis planning. If a business has not experienced a crisis or no vulnerability is identified, then planning for it is not considered a priority. Management books and the popular press continuously report and discuss case studies of businesses of all sizes that failed because they were unable to manage a crisis event. The challenge then, is to convince all owner/managers, particularly those of small businesses, of the need for proper crisis management. Table I indicates that there is genuine concern about potential crisis events such as breakdown of a major piece of production/service equipment, major industrial accident, computer-system breakdown, and flood just to mention a few. Managers and small-business owners need to think seriously about taking steps to avoid a crisis. Focusing on the following ideas will go a long way toward that end: 1. Form a crisis-management team. 2. Know how to detect crisis symptoms or conduct vulnerability analysis. 28 Journal of Small Basi ness Strategy Vol. l4, No. I Spring/Sumuter 2003 3. Develop an effective communication mechamsm within the business. 4. Train everyone to be vigilant, prepared and responsive. 5. Remain tlexible to changing environments. The first reconunendation is for a small business to form a crisis-management team. No matter how small the business, an appropnate team can be established. It may be only the owner and one staff person, but that is sufficient. In a larger business, the team should consist of key company representatives from operations, marketing and accounting, as wefl as the CEO or owner. If the team is new, it is may be worthwhile to consult with experts who can provide a framework for operation. (Fmk, 2000). While the size of the team depends on the particular type of business, it is suggested that it be kept to fewer than 10 members (Barton, 1993). The second recommendation focuses on a vulnerability analysis. One of the most important steps in developing the crisis-management plan is to identify most significant vulnerabilities in the business and priontize them. The best way to do a vulnerability analysis is to ask questions and be perceptive about warning signs (Caponigro, 2000). A business that plans for a crisis unique to its industry becomes better prepared to manage the crisis should it occur. The third recommendation centers on making the communication system as effective as possible. Communicating during and after a crisis is crucial to successful crisis managenient. One essential element of this process is the selection of a proper spokesperson. To achieve competency in this area, it may be necessary to seek the expertise of professionals in communication techniques (Caponigro, 2000). The fourth recommendation suggests ongoing training of personnel. Offering both formal and informal traimng to management and employees is an important ingredient in the cnsis- management equation. The more knowledge an employee has about the warning signs of a potential crisis, the easier it is to identify the crisis and deal with it immediately. This is why creating a corporate culture that is sensitive to the crisis-management concept is so important. Finally, it is recommended that the cnsis-management team and business personnel remain flexible. In managing a crisis, the decision-makers must not be locked into inflexible plans. Responding to a crisis is a fluid process (Fink, 2000). CONCLUSION This study investigated the perceptions and experiences of small businesses as they relate to worst-case scenanos. The results indicate that, in general, small businesses are not that 'oncernedabout crisis issues and subsequently, few have crisis-management teams. One reason this may be the case is that smaller businesses experience fewer crisis events relative to larger organizations. Another reason could be that because a majority of the businesses have fewer than 25 employees, they do not believe that they have the resources for a crisis- management process. There lies the paradox. Because of those fewer resources and lack of expertise, small 'usinessesare also less likely to recover if they do experience a crisis. This study concludes that small businesses, like their larger counterparts, should adopt crisis-management plans. They should incorporate worst-case scenario identification and crisis planning in their business-development plan. Reading The Small Business Owner's Guide to d Good Night' Sleep, by Debra K. Traverso, provides practical strategies for identifying worst-case scenarios and managing them. 29 Journal of Small Business S/ra/cgy Vol. /4, No. I Sprmg/Summer 2003 Study's contribution to crisis management While the study is exploratory, it does contnbute to the understanding of crisis management. First, it provides insight into the types of crises and cnsis concerns that small business managers consider important to their operations. These insights form the basis for worst-case scenario planning. A second contribution addresses the association between concern for a crisis and its actual occurrence. The study reveals that concern and frequency move in the same general direction, i.e., high-concern events have also occurred more frequently while low-concern events have occurred less frequently. One obvious caveat should be noted, The terrorism of September 11 was, statistically, a rare event. And yet, concern for terrorism has increased dramatically in the United States, even though the incidence of terrorism is low. In crisis management, it is understood that some events have a low likelihood of occurring, yet they still generate high concern among managers. REFERENCES Barton, L. (1993). Crisis in organizations: Managing and communicating in the heat of chaos. Cincinnati, OH: South-Western Publishing Co. Barton, L. (2001). Crisis m organizations II. United States; South-Western Publishing Co. Caponigro, J. (1998). The crisis counselor. The executive 's guide /o avoiding, managing, and thriving on crises that occurin all businesses. Southfield, Mich.: Barker Business Books, Inc. 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John E. Spillan, M.B.A. and Ph.D. in Business and Management and serves as Assistant Professor of Business Administration at The Pennsylvania Slate University -DuBois Campus. His research interests center on Crisis Management, Marketing and Ennepreneurship and International Business with specific interest in Latin America and Eastern Europe. His articles have appeared in the Journal of Business, Management Development Forum, International Journal of Marketing and Marketing Research, Journal of Business in Developing Nations, Southern Business Review and Communication Research Report. Dr. Spillan is coordinator of the Bachelors of Science in Business degree program at the Penn Stale-DuBois campus. He has traveled extensively in Europe, Latin America and the Middle East. 31